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+The Project Gutenberg eBook, Why We Are At War (2nd Edition, revised), by
+Members of the Oxford Faculty of Modern History
+
+
+This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with
+almost no restrictions whatsoever.  You may copy it, give it away or
+re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included
+with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org
+
+
+
+
+
+Title: Why We Are At War (2nd Edition, revised)
+
+Author: Members of the Oxford Faculty of Modern History
+
+Release Date: January 23, 2004  [eBook #10809]
+
+Language: English
+
+Character set encoding: US-ASCII
+
+
+***START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK WHY WE ARE AT WAR (2ND EDITION,
+REVISED)***
+
+
+E-text prepared by Jonathan Ingram, David King, and the Project Gutenberg
+Online Distributed Proofreading Team
+
+
+
+WHY WE ARE AT WAR
+
+GREAT BRITAIN'S CASE
+
+With an Appendix of Original Documents including the Authorized English
+Translation of the White Book issued by the German Government
+
+Second Edition Revised (fourth impression)
+containing the Russian Orange Book
+
+BY
+
+MEMBERS OF THE OXFORD FACULTY OF MODERN HISTORY
+
+1914
+
+
+
+
+
+
+PREFACE
+
+
+We are not politicians, and we belong to different schools of political
+thought. We have written this book to set forth the causes of the
+present war, and the principles which we believe to be at stake. We have
+some experience in the handling of historic evidence, and we have
+endeavoured to treat this subject historically. Our fifth chapter, which
+to many readers will be the most interesting, is founded upon first-hand
+evidence--the documents contained in the British White Book
+(Parliamentary Paper, Cd. 7467; hereafter cited as _Correspondence
+respecting the European Crisis_), and the German White Book, which is an
+official apology, supplemented by documents. The German White Book, as
+being difficult of access, we have printed _in extenso_. It exists in
+two versions, a German and an English, both published for the German
+Government. We have reproduced the English version without correcting
+the solecisms of spelling and expression. From the English White Book we
+have reprinted, in the second appendix, a small selection of the more
+significant documents; many more are quoted in the body of our work.
+
+Our thanks are due to Sir H. Erle Richards, Chichele Professor of
+International Law and Diplomacy; and to Mr. W.G.S. Adams, Gladstone
+Professor of Political Theory and Institutions, for valuable suggestions
+and assistance.
+
+The sole responsibility for the book rests, however, with those who sign
+this Preface.
+
+Any profits arising from the sale of this work will be sent to the
+Belgian Relief Fund, as a mark of sympathy and respect for the Belgian
+nation, and especially for the University of Louvain.
+
+E. BARKER
+H. W. C. DAVIS
+C. R. L. FLETCHER
+ARTHUR HASSALL
+L. G. WICKHAM LEGG
+F. MORGAN
+
+
+
+
+Preface to Second Edition
+
+
+By the courtesy of His Excellency the Russian Ambassador we are now able
+to print in an appendix (No. VI) those documents contained in the
+Russian Orange Book which have not been already published in the German
+and the British White Books. In the light of the evidence afforded by
+the Russian Orange Book, we have modified one or two sentences in this
+edition.
+
+21 September, 1914.
+
+
+
+
+CONTENTS
+
+
+TABLE OF DATES
+
+CHAPTER I
+
+THE NEUTRALITY OF BELGIUM AND LUXEMBURG
+
+Belgian neutrality--The origin of Belgium--England and the smaller
+Powers--The Treaty of 1839--Belgium's independence and neutrality.--The
+neutrality of the Grand Duchy of Luxemburg--Its origin--The Treaty of
+1867--The collective guarantee.--The strategic importance of
+Belgium--German plans long suspected.
+
+
+CHAPTER II
+
+THE GROWTH OF ALLIANCES AND THE RACE OF ARMAMENTS SINCE 1871
+
+Introduction--The Triple Alliance--Bismarck's dismissal--French colonial
+advance---Germany's demands for compensations--The Anglo-French
+agreement concerning Morocco--German objections--England and Russia--The
+Agadir incident--Anglo-French exchange of notes--Disputes in the
+Balkans--The 'Boulanger Law' of 1886--Count Caprivi's law of
+1893--Franco-Russian _entente_--German military preparations--France's
+response--Russia's reorganization--England's Army and Navy.
+
+Note. _Abstract of Anglo-French Agreement on Morocco_.
+
+
+CHAPTER III
+
+THE DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN POLICY
+
+Estrangement of Russia and Germany--Austria and the Balkans--German
+penetration through the Balkans--Servia and Russia--Germany and the
+Slavs--Russia and England.
+
+
+CHAPTER IV
+
+CHRONOLOGICAL SKETCH OF THE CRISIS OF 1914
+
+Diary of the Events leading to the War.
+
+
+CHAPTER V
+
+NEGOTIATORS AND NEGOTIATIONS
+
+Dramatis personae. Sec. _Germany's attitude to Russia and
+Austria_--Presentation of the Austrian Note to Servia--Germany shields
+Austria--Conduct of Germany considered--Sir Edward Grey proposes
+mediation, and then a Conference of Four Powers--Germany's objections to
+a 'Conference'--Direct conversations between the Powers--Austria invited
+to suspend military action--Mobilization; on whom does responsibility
+lie?--War inevitable. Sec 2. _Germany's attitude to France_--Germany
+accuses France of military preparations--Germany invades France. Sec 3.
+_The question of British neutrality_--Possibility of England being
+involved--Germany warned--German 'bid for British neutrality'--England's
+refusal--France agrees, and Germany refuses, to respect Belgian
+neutrality--Prince Lichnowsky and Sir Edward Grey--Neutrality of
+Luxemburg violated--Germany demands a free passage through Belgium--Sir
+Edward Grey protests--Belgium invaded--England's ultimatum--The Imperial
+Chancellor urges necessity of Germany's action. Sec 4. _England and
+Servia_--Sir Edward Grey realizes Russia's interest in Servia--He is
+only concerned for the peace of Europe--He urges mediation--He proposes
+a Conference. Sec 5. _Great Britain declines 'solidarity' with Russia and
+France_--Proposals by MM. Sazonof and Poincare--England's refusal--Was
+it wise?--The Austrian _dossier_. Sec 6. _Italy's comments on the
+situation_--Significance of Italy's position--Italy's endeavours to
+prevent war--Italy's declaration of neutrality.
+
+Note. Abstract of Austro-Hungarian note to Servia, and Servians reply.
+
+
+CHAPTER VI
+
+THE NEW GERMAN THEORY OF THE STATE
+
+The principles of _raison d'etat_ and the rule of law--Treitschke's
+teaching--The results of this philosophy--Contempt for public law--The
+glorification of war--The philosophy pagan--Its adoption by Prussian
+soldiers and Government--A plea for Prussia--England fights for law.
+
+
+EPILOGUE
+
+
+
+APPENDIXES
+
+I. THE GERMAN WHITE BOOK
+
+II. EXTRACTS FROM SIR EDWARD GREY'S CORRESPONDENCE RESPECTING THE
+EUROPEAN CRISIS
+
+III. EXTRACT FROM THE DISPATCH FROM HIS MAJESTY'S AMBASSADOR AT BERLIN
+RESPECTING THE RUPTURE OF DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH THE GERMAN
+GOVERNMENT
+
+IV. THE CRIME OF SERAJEVO
+
+V. EXTRACT FROM THE DISPATCH FROM HIS MAJESTY'S AMBASSADOR AT VIENNA
+RESPECTING THE RUPTURE OF DIPLOMATIC RELATIONS WITH THE AUSTRO-HUNGARIAN
+GOVERNMENT
+
+VI. EXTRACTS FROM THE RUSSIAN ORANGE BOOK
+
+
+
+
+CHIEF DATES
+
+
+1648 Jan. The Treaty of Munster.
+     Oct. The Treaty of Westphalia.
+1713 April. The Treaty of Utrecht.
+1772 First Partition of Poland.
+1783 William of Nassau becomes Grand Duke of Luxemburg.
+1788 July. The Triple Alliance of England, Holland, and Prussia.
+1789 The French Revolution begins.
+1792 Nov. 6. Battle of Jemappes.  French Conquest of the Austrian
+     Netherlands and Liege.
+     Nov. 19. French decree offering 'freedom to all nations'.
+     Dec. 15. Compulsory freedom declared.
+1793 Jan. Second Partition of Poland.
+     Feb. 1. Declaration of War by France against England and Holland.
+1795 Third Partition of Poland.
+1801 Feb. 9. The Treaty of Luneville. France guarantees the
+     independence of Holland (then called 'Batavian Republic').
+1802 Mar. 27. The Treaty of Amiens.
+1803 Mar. 13. Napoleon's famous interview with Lord Whitworth.
+     May 12. Declaration of War by England against France.
+1814 Mar. 1. The Treaty of Chaumont.
+     May 30. The First Peace of Paris.
+     Sept. 29. Opening of the Congress of Vienna.
+1815 Mar-June. The Hundred Days.
+     May 31. Belgium and Luxemburg placed under the Prince of Orange as
+     King of the United Netherlands.
+     Nov. 20. The Second Peace of Paris.
+1830 Revolutions in France (July) and in Belgium (Aug.).
+1830-1878 Servia autonomous.
+1831 Nov. 15. Independence and Neutrality of Belgium guaranteed by
+     England, Austria, France, Prussia, and Russia.
+1839 April 19. Final recognition of the Independence and Neutrality of
+     Belgium by the above-named Powers.
+1867 May 11. European guarantee of the Neutrality of Luxemburg.
+     Declaration by Lord Stanley and Lord Clarendon.
+1870 Aug. 9. Independence and Neutrality of Belgium again guaranteed
+     by Germany and France.
+1871 May 10. The Treaty of Frankfort.
+1872 The _Dreikaiserbund_; Alliance of Russia, Germany, and
+     Austria.
+1875 Threatened attack on France by Germany prevented by
+     Russia and England.
+1878 The Treaty of Berlin.
+     Proclamation of Servian Independence under King Milan.
+1879 Secret Treaty between Germany and Austria.
+1883 Triple Alliance between Germany, Austria, and Italy.
+1885 Formation of United Bulgaria.
+     War between Bulgaria and Servia.
+1886 Peace between Bulgaria and Servia.
+1890 Fall of Bismarck. Cession of Heligoland to Germany.
+1891 Beginning of an understanding between Russia and France.
+1893 Caprivi's Army Act.
+1896 Germany begins to show aggressive tendencies in the field
+     of Colonial Expansion.
+     Treaty between England and France regarding their interests
+     in Indo-China.
+     Definite Alliance between Russia and France.
+1898 Reconquest of the Sudan.
+     Tsar's rescript for an International Peace Conference.
+1899 Anglo-French Agreement respecting Tripoli.
+     June. First Peace Conference at the Hague.
+     New German Army Act.
+1902 Anglo-Japanese Alliance.
+     The Peace of Vereeniging closes the South African War.
+1903 Revolution in Belgrade.
+1904 April. The Treaty of London between England and France
+     with regard to North Africa.
+1905 Mar. Visit of the German Emperor to Tangier.
+     June. Germany demands the dismissal of M. Delcasse.
+     Aug. The Treaty of Portsmouth between Russia and Japan.
+     Renewal of the Anglo-Japanese Alliance.
+     German Army Act.
+     Sept. France agrees to the holding of the Algeeiras
+     Conference.
+1907 Agreement between Russia and England concerning Persia,
+     Afghanistan, and Tibet.
+     June-Oct. Second Peace Conference at the Hague.
+1908 Young Turk Revolution in Constantinople.
+     Oct. Annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina by Austria.
+     German Navy Law.
+1909 Mar. Servia declares she will no longer protest against the
+     annexation of Bosnia by Austria.
+1909 Mr. Asquith's speech on necessity for increasing the Navy.
+1910 The Potsdam interview between the Tsar and the Kaiser.
+1911 European Crisis over the question of Morocco, followed by a
+     closer Anglo-French _entente_.
+     German Army Act.
+1912 Sensational German Army Bill.
+     War in the Balkans.
+     Nov. 26. German Navy construction estimates L11,416,700.
+     Dec. 29. Peace Conference of Balkan States with Turkey broken off.
+1913 Jan. 17. M. Poincare elected French President.
+     Jan. 23. The Young Turkish Party overthrow the Government at
+     Constantinople.
+     May 26. Peace made between Turkey and the Balkan States.
+     May 28. The New German Army Bill passes the Budget Committee of
+     the Reichstag.
+     June 20. Universal military service in Belgium.
+     June 26. Conference between the French President, the French
+     Foreign Minister, and Sir Edward Grey.
+     June 30. Bulgaria is attacked by Servia and Greece.
+     New German Army Bill.
+     July. Roumania attacks Bulgaria.
+     The Turks re-occupy Adrianople.
+     New Russian Army Bill.
+     French Army Bill.
+     Aug. 6. The Treaty of Peace between Bulgaria, Servia, Greece, and
+     Roumania.
+     Sept. 22. The Treaty of Peace between Bulgaria and Turkey.
+     Oct. 20. Servia at Austria's demand abandons Albania.
+     Austrian War Fund increased.
+1914 Attacks by the German Press upon France and Russia.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER 1
+
+
+THE NEUTRALITY OF BELGIUM AND LUXEMBURG
+
+I
+
+The kingdom of Belgium is a comparatively new creation, but the idea of
+a Belgian nation is older than the kingdom. Historically and
+geographically the kingdom has no doubt an artificial character; its
+boundaries have been determined by the Great Powers and cut across the
+ancient provinces of the Netherlands. And it must be added that its
+population is heterogeneous both in race and language. These facts,
+however, in no sense diminish the legal rights of Belgium as a nation.
+She is a sovereign state by the same charter as Italy or Greece; and for
+the convenience of Europe she has been solemnly declared a neutral
+state, endowed with special privileges but burdened with corresponding
+obligations. While those privileges were maintained--and they have been
+rigidly maintained for more than eighty years--the Belgian people
+punctually fulfilled their obligations; and, because they have declined
+to betray Europe by becoming the dependant of a powerful neighbour, or
+by participating in the violation of European public law, their country
+is a wilderness of smoking ruins.
+
+In the tremendous and all but crushing ordeal of August, 1914, Belgium
+has proved that she possesses other titles to existence and respect than
+those afforded by treaties, by the mutual jealousies of neighbours, or
+by the doctrines of international law. She has more than satisfied the
+tests which distinguish the true from the fictitious nationality. Those
+who have hitherto known Belgium only as a hive of manufacturing and
+mining industry, or as a land of historic memories and monuments, are
+now recognizing, with some shame for their past blindness, the moral and
+spiritual qualities which her people have developed under the aegis of a
+European guarantee. It is now beyond dispute that, if Belgium were
+obliterated from the map of Europe, the world would be the poorer and
+Europe put to shame. The proofs which Belgium has given of her
+nationality will never be forgotten while liberty has any value or
+patriotism any meaning among men. We cannot do less than echo the
+general sentiment of admiration for a constancy to national ideals which
+has left Belgium at the mercy of Huns less forgivable than those of
+Attila. But the case against her oppressor is not to be founded solely
+or mainly on her peculiar merits. In a special sense it rests upon the
+legal rights and duties with which she has been invested for the
+convenience of her neighbours and for the welfare of the European state
+system. It was in their interest, rather than her own, that the Great
+Powers made her a sovereign independent state. As such she is entitled,
+equally with England or with Germany, to immunity from unprovoked
+attack. But the Powers which made her a sovereign state, also, and for
+the same reasons of convenience, made her a neutral state. She was
+therefore debarred from consulting her own safety by making alliances
+upon what terms she would. She could not lawfully join either of the two
+armed camps into which Europe has fallen since the year 1907. And, if
+she had been as contemptible as she is actually the reverse, she would
+still be entitled to expect from England and from every other of her
+guarantors the utmost assistance it is in their power to give. In
+fighting for Belgium we fight for the law of nations; that is,
+ultimately, for the peace of all nations and for the right of the weaker
+to exist.
+
+       *       *       *       *       *
+
+The provinces which now constitute the kingdom of Belgium--with the
+exception of the bishopric of Liege, which was until 1795 an
+ecclesiastical principality--were known in the seventeenth century as
+the Spanish, in the eighteenth as the Austrian, Netherlands. They
+received the first of these names when they returned to the allegiance
+of Philip II, after a short participation in the revolt to which Holland
+owes her national existence. When the independence of Holland was
+finally recognized by Spain (1648), the Spanish Netherlands were
+subjected to the first of the artificial restrictions which Europe has
+seen fit to impose upon them. The Dutch monopoly of navigation in the
+Scheldt was admitted by the Treaty of Muenster (1648), and Antwerp was
+thus precluded from developing into a rival of Amsterdam. In the age of
+Louis XIV the Spanish Netherlands were constantly attacked by France,
+who acquired at one time or another the chief towns of Artois and
+Hainault, including some which have lately come into prominence in the
+great war, such as Lille, Valenciennes, Cambray, and Maubeuge. The bulk,
+however, of the Spanish Netherlands passed at the Treaty of Utrecht to
+Austria, then the chief rival of France on the Continent. They passed
+with the reservation that certain fortresses on their southern border
+were to be garrisoned jointly by the Dutch and the Austrians as a
+barrier against French aggression. This arrangement was overthrown at
+the French Revolution. The French annexed the Austrian Netherlands and
+Liege in November, 1792; and immediately afterwards threw down a
+gauntlet to England by opening to all nations the navigation of the
+Scheldt. This, and the threatened French attack on Holland, her ally,
+drew England into conflict with the Revolution; for, first, Antwerp in
+French hands and as an open port would be a dangerous menace; and
+secondly, the French had announced a new and anarchic doctrine hostile
+to all standing treaties: 'Our reasons are that the river takes its rise
+in France and that a nation which has obtained its liberty cannot
+recognize a system of feudalism, much less adhere to it'.[1] The answer
+of William Pitt, which in effect declared war upon the Revolution,
+contains a memorable statement of the attitude towards public law which
+England held then, as she holds it to-day: 'With regard to the Scheldt
+France can have no right to annul existing stipulations, unless she also
+have the right to set aside equally the other treaties between all
+Powers of Europe and all the other rights of England and her allies....
+England will never consent that France shall arrogate the power of
+annulling at her pleasure and under the pretence of a pretended natural
+right, of which she makes herself the only judge, the political system
+of Europe, established by solemn treaties and guaranteed by the consent
+of all the Powers'.[2]
+
+This was not our attitude in the case of Belgium only. It was an
+attitude which we adopted with regard to all the minor Powers of Western
+Europe when they were threatened by Napoleon. On precisely the same
+grounds England defended in 1803 the independence of Holland, a
+commercial rival if an old political ally, and of Switzerland, where she
+had no immediate interests to protect. By the Treaty of Luneville
+(February, 1801) France and Austria had mutually guaranteed the
+independence of the Batavian Republic and the right of the Dutch to
+adopt whatever form of government seemed good to them. In defiance of
+these stipulations Napoleon maintained a garrison in Holland, and forced
+upon her a new Constitution which had been prepared in Paris (November,
+1801). Identical stipulations had been made for the Helvetian Republic
+and had been similarly violated. Early in 1803 England demanded that the
+French should evacuate Holland and Switzerland: to which Napoleon
+replied that 'Switzerland and Holland are mere trifles'. His interview
+with the English Ambassador on March 13, 1803, has many points of
+resemblance with the now famous interview of August 4, 1914, between Sir
+Edward Goschen and Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg. The First Consul then, like
+the Imperial Chancellor to-day, was unable, or professed himself unable,
+to understand why Great Britain should insist upon the observance of
+treaties.
+
+To return to Belgium. It became apparent in the Napoleonic Wars that
+Belgium and Holland were individually too weak to protect themselves or
+the German people against an aggressive French Government. The allies
+therefore, in the year 1813, handed over to Holland the Austrian
+Netherlands and the bishopric of Liege in order 'to put Holland in a
+position to resist attack until the Powers could come to its aid'. This
+arrangement was ratified at the Treaty of Chaumont (1814). As there was
+no government or visible unity in the Belgian provinces after the
+retirement of the French, the union with Holland, originally suggested
+by Lord Castlereagh, seemed reasonable enough. It gave the Belgians the
+great privilege of freely navigating the Scheldt. It was confirmed at
+the Congress of Vienna, and the new kingdom of the United Netherlands
+was declared neutral by the common consent of the Powers.
+
+But the events of the years 1815-1830 proved conclusively that this
+union was unsatisfactory to the Belgian population. The Belgians
+complained that they were not allowed their just share of influence and
+representation in the legislature or executive. They resented the
+attempt to impose the Dutch language and Dutch Liberalism upon them.
+They rose in revolt, expelled the Dutch officials and garrisons, and
+drew up for themselves a monarchical and parliamentary constitution.
+Their aspirations aroused much sympathy both in England and in France.
+These two countries induced the other Great Powers (Austria, Prussia,
+Russia) to recognize the new kingdom as an independent neutral state.
+This recognition was embodied in the Treaty of the Twenty-Four Articles
+signed at London in October, 1831; and it was not too generous to the
+aspirations of Belgian nationality. Since the Belgians had been defeated
+in the field by Holland and had only been rescued by a French army, they
+were obliged to surrender their claims upon Maestricht, parts of
+Luxemburg, and parts of Limburg. Some time elapsed before this
+settlement was recognized by Holland. But at length this last guarantee
+was obtained; and the Treaty of London, 1839, finally established the
+international status of Belgium. Under this treaty both her independence
+and her neutrality were definitely guaranteed by England, France,
+Austria, Prussia, and Russia.
+
+We have recently been told by the Imperial Chancellor that the Treaty of
+1839 is nothing but 'a scrap of paper'. It is therefore desirable to
+point out that Bismarck made full use of it in 1870 to prevent England
+from supporting the cause of France. It was with this object that he
+published the proposal alleged to have been made to him by the French
+representative, Benedetti, in 1866, that Prussia should help France to
+acquire Belgium as a solace for Prussian annexations in Northern
+Germany. Then, as now, England insisted upon the Treaty of 1839. The
+result was that, on the instance of Lord Granville, Germany and France
+entered into an identic treaty with Great Britain (Aug. 1870) to the
+effect that, if either belligerent violated Belgian territory, Great
+Britain would co-operate with the other for the defence of it. The
+treaty was most strictly construed. After the battle of Sedan (Sept.
+1870) the German Government applied to Belgium for leave to transport
+the German wounded across Belgian territory. France protested that this
+would be a breach of neutrality and Belgium refused.
+
+Such is the history of the process by which Belgium has acquired her
+special status. As an independent state she is bound by the elementary
+principle of the law of nations, that a neutral state is bound to refuse
+to grant a right of passage to a belligerent. This is a well-established
+rule, and was formally affirmed by the Great Powers at the Hague Peace
+Conference of 1907. The fifth Article of the Convention [3] then drawn
+up respecting the Rights and Duties of Neutral Powers and Persons in War
+on Land runs as follows:--
+
+  'A neutral power ought not to allow on its territory any of
+  the acts referred to in Articles 2 to 4'.
+
+Of the Articles thus specified the most important is No. 2:--
+
+  'Belligerents are forbidden to move across the territory of
+  a neutral power troops or convoys, either of munitions of war
+  or supplies'.
+
+By the Treaty of London the existence of Belgium is contingent upon her
+perpetual neutrality:--
+
+  'ARTICLE VII. Belgium within the limits specified in
+  Articles I, II, and IV shall form an independent and perpetually
+  neutral state. It shall be bound to observe such
+  neutrality towards all other states'.[4]
+
+It is unnecessary to elaborate further the point of law. That, it seems,
+has been admitted by the Imperial Chancellor before the German
+Reichstag. What is necessary to remember is that, in regard to Belgium,
+Germany has assumed the position which the Government of the French
+Revolution adopted towards the question of the Scheldt, and which
+Napoleon adopted towards the guaranteed neutrality of Switzerland and
+Holland. Now, as then, England has special interests at stake. The
+consequences of the oppression or the extinction of the smaller
+nationalities are bound to excite peculiar alarm in England. In
+particular she cannot forget how she would be menaced by the
+establishment of a militarist state in Belgium. But since in England's
+case the dangers and uncertainties of a state of things in which Might
+is treated as Right are particularly apparent, it is only to be expected
+that she should insist with special emphasis upon the sanctity of
+treaties, a sanctity which in the long run is as necessary to the
+strongest nation as to the weakest. If treaties count for nothing, no
+nation is secure so long as any imaginable combination of Powers can
+meet it in battle or diplomacy on equal terms; and the stronger nations
+must perforce fight one another to the death for the privilege of
+enslaving civilization. Whether the progress of such a competition would
+be a trifling evil, whether the success of any one among such
+competitors would conduce to the higher interests of humanity, impartial
+onlookers may debate if they please. England has answered both these
+questions with an unhesitating negative.
+
+
+II
+
+Under existing treaty law the Grand Duchy of Luxemburg stands for all
+practical purposes in the same legal position as its northern neighbour;
+and the ruler of Luxemburg has protested against the German invasion[5]
+of her territory no less emphatically than King Albert, though with less
+power of giving expression in action to her just resentment. If the
+defence of Belgium has appealed more forcibly to the ordinary
+Englishman, it is because he is more familiar with the past history of
+Belgium and sees more clearly in her case the ultimate issues that are
+involved in the German violation of her rights. As the following
+narrative will show, the neutrality of Luxemburg was guaranteed in the
+interests and at the instance of the Prussian state, as a protection
+against French aggression. The legal case could not be clearer, and it
+might perhaps be asked why the attack on Luxemburg, which preceded that
+on Belgium, was not treated by this country as a _casus belli_.
+England's attitude towards Luxemburg is that which she has consistently
+adopted towards those smaller states of Europe which lie outside the
+reach of naval power. It is an attitude which she has maintained in the
+case of Servia even more clearly than in that of Luxemburg. England
+holds herself bound to exert her influence in procuring for the smaller
+states of Europe equitable treatment from their more powerful
+neighbours. But the duty of insisting upon equitable treatment falls
+first upon those Powers whose situation enables them to support a
+protest by effective action. Just as Servia is the special concern of
+Russia, so Luxemburg must look to France in the first instance for
+protection against Germany, to Germany if she is assailed from the
+French side. In either case we should hold ourselves bound to exercise
+our influence, but not as principals. Any other course would be
+impossibly quixotic, and would only have the effect of destroying our
+power to help the states within our reach.
+
+       *       *       *       *       *
+
+The Grand Duchy of Luxemburg was a revival of an ancient state which had
+lost its existence during the French Revolution. Although it was placed
+under the rule of the King of the Netherlands, a descendant of its
+former sovereign, it was not incorporated in his kingdom, but retained
+its own identity and gave to its ruler the secondary title of Grand Duke
+of Luxemburg. The position it occupied after 1815 was in some ways
+anomalous; for lying as it did between the Meuse and the Rhine, and
+possessing in the town of Luxemburg a fortress whose natural strength
+some competent critics reckoned as second only to that of Gibraltar
+among the fortresses of Europe, it was considered to be an indispensable
+link in the chain of defences of Germany against French aggression. Not
+being able to trust the Dutch to hold this great fortress against the
+French, the Congress of Vienna laid down as a principle that all land
+between the Meuse and the Rhine must be held by Prussian troops on
+behalf of the newly formed Germanic Confederation. Thus Luxemburg was
+held by Prussian troops on behalf of this foreign confederation, and
+over this garrison the only right allowed to the Grand Duke, the
+sovereign of the country, was that of nominating the governor.
+
+This strange state of affairs was not modified by the Belgian Revolution
+of 1830; for though more than half the Grand Duchy threw in its lot with
+Belgium to form the modern province of Belgian Luxemburg, the Grand
+Duchy, confined to its modern limits, still contained the great fortress
+with its garrison of Prussian troops. It is not surprising that, under
+these circumstances, the Grand Duchy joined the Prussian _Zollverein_,
+and so drew nearer to Germany, in spite of the independent character of
+its inhabitants, who have strenuously resisted any attempt at absorption
+into Germany. France naturally continued to cast envious eyes upon the
+small state with the powerful citadel, but no opportunity presented
+itself for reopening the question until 1866.
+
+In that year Napoleon III had anticipated that the war between Prussia
+and Italy on one side and Austria and the small German states on the
+other would be long and exhausting, and would end in France imposing
+peace on the weary combatants with considerable territorial advantage to
+herself. His anticipation was entirely falsified; the war lasted only
+seven weeks and Prussia emerged victorious and immensely strengthened by
+the absorption of several German states and by the formation of the
+North German Confederation under her leadership. This, the first
+shattering blow which the French Emperor's diplomatic schemes had
+received, led him to demand compensation for the growth of Prussian
+power, and one of his proposals was the cession of Luxemburg to France.
+
+This suggestion had some legal plausibility quite apart from the
+question of the balance of power. For the Prussian garrison held
+Luxemburg in the name of the German Confederation, which had been
+destroyed by the war of 1866; and, the authority to which the garrison
+owed its existence being gone, it was only logical that the garrison
+should go too. After much demur Count Bismarck acknowledged the justice
+of the argument (April, 1867), but it did not by any means follow that
+the French should therefore take the place vacated by the Prussians. At
+the same time the fortress could not be left in the hands of a weak
+Power as a temptation for powerful and unscrupulous neighbours. The
+question of Luxemburg was therefore the subject discussed at a Congress
+held in London in the following May.
+
+Here the Prussians showed themselves extremely politic and reasonable.
+Realizing that, with the advance of artillery, the great rock-fortress
+no longer had the military value of earlier days, they not only raised
+no objections to the evacuation of Luxemburg by their troops, but in the
+Congress it was they who proposed that the territory of the Grand Duchy
+should be neutralized 'under the collective guarantee of the Powers'.[6]
+A treaty was therefore drawn up on May 11, 1867, of which the second
+article ran as follows:--
+
+    'The Grand Duchy of Luxemburg, within the Limits determined by the
+    Act annexed to the Treaties of the 19th April, 1839, under the
+    Guarantee of the Courts of Great Britain, Austria, France, Prussia,
+    and Russia, shall henceforth form a perpetually Neutral State.
+
+    'It shall be bound to observe the same Neutrality towards all other
+    States.
+
+    'The High Contracting Parties engage to respect the principle of
+    Neutrality stipulated by the present Article.
+
+    'That principle is and remains placed under the sanction of the
+    collective Guarantee of the Powers signing as Parties to the present
+    Treaty, with the exception of Belgium, which is itself a Neutral
+    State'.[7]
+
+The third article provided for the demolition of the fortifications of
+Luxemburg and its conversion into an open town, the fourth for its
+evacuation by the Prussian garrison, and the fifth forbade the
+restoration of the fortifications.
+
+Such then was the treaty guaranteeing the neutrality of Luxemburg, which
+was proposed, it may be observed, by Prussia herself; but, until the
+treaty was broken by the very Power which had proposed the neutrality,
+only one incident need be noted in the history of the country, namely,
+the part it played in the war of 1870-1. On December 3, 1870, Count
+Bismarck issued from Versailles a circular to the Prussian Ambassadors,
+calling attention to the fact that both the French and the Luxemburgers
+had violated the neutrality of the Grand Duchy, mainly by giving
+facilities for French soldiers to return to France. Precautions were
+taken by the Prussian Government on the frontier to prevent such abuses
+occurring in the future, and as no violation of the neutrality of
+Luxemburg was committed by the Prussians, the neutral co-guarantors were
+satisfied with the Prussian attitude, and the subject dropped. At the
+end of the war, M. Thiers vainly attempted to obtain Luxemburg as
+compensation for the loss of Metz.
+
+In accordance with the Family Compact of 1783, the Grand Duchy passed on
+the death of the late King of Holland to Prince William of Nassau, on
+whose death the present Grand Duchess succeeded to her father's throne.
+
+There is one point in the Treaty of 1867 which calls for special
+comment. The neutrality of the Grand Duchy is 'placed under the
+collective guarantee of the Powers signing'. The phrase originally
+proposed by Count Bismarck was 'the formal and individual guarantee of
+the Powers,' and it was altered at the instance of the English Foreign
+Minister, Lord Stanley. The phrase actually adopted was suggested by the
+Russian diplomat, Baron Brunnow, and was accepted both by England and by
+Prussia. Lord Stanley's objection had been based upon the fear that
+England might incur an unlimited liability to assist Luxemburg
+single-handed if all other Powers failed to meet their obligations. In
+other words, Luxemburg might have been used as the infallible means of
+dragging us into every and any war which might arise between Germany and
+France. From that danger we were protected by Lord Stanley's objection;
+as the case stands the treaty gives us, in his own words, 'a right to
+make war, but would not necessarily impose the obligation,' should
+Luxemburg be attacked. To this doctrine a reference will be found in the
+British White Paper (No. 148), where Sir Edward Grey informs M. Cambon
+of 'the doctrine' concerning Luxemburg, 'laid down by Lord Derby and
+Lord Clarendon in 1867'. It may also be observed that two of the
+co-guarantors of the Treaty of 1867, namely Italy and Holland, have also
+not thought it necessary to make the violation of Luxemburg a _casus
+belli_.
+
+
+III
+
+It is evident to all who study closely the map of France that her
+eastern frontier falls into two sharply contrasted divisions, the
+north-eastern which reaches from the sea to the valley of the Sambre,
+and the south-eastern which extends from that river to, and along the
+Swiss boundary. The former is flat country, easy for military
+operations; the latter is mountainous, intersected with many deep
+valleys. After the loss of Alsace-Lorraine, the French set to work to
+rectify artificially the strategical weakness of their frontier; and in
+a chain of fortresses behind the Vosges Mountains they erected a rampart
+which has the reputation of being impregnable. This is the line Belfort,
+Epinal, Toul, Verdun. A German attack launched upon this line without
+violating neutral territory would have to be frontal, for on the north
+the line is covered by the neutral states of Belgium and Luxemburg,
+while on the south, although the gap between the Vosges and the Swiss
+frontier apparently gives a chance of out-flanking the French defences,
+the fortress of Belfort, which was never reduced even in the war of
+1870-1, was considered too formidable an obstacle against which to
+launch an invading army. A rapid advance on Paris was therefore deemed
+impossible if respect were to be paid to the neutrality of Belgium and
+Luxemburg, and it was for this purely military reason that Germany has
+to-day violated her promises to regard the neutrality of these states.
+This was frankly admitted by Herr von Jagow to Sir Edward Goschen: 'if
+they had gone by the more southern route they could not have hoped, in
+view of the paucity of roads and the strength of the fortresses, to have
+got through without formidable opposition entailing great loss of
+time'.[8]
+
+In the case of Belgium a very easy road was afforded into French
+territory up the Valley of the Meuse, past Liege and thence into France
+past Namur and through what is known as the Gap of Namur. A German army
+could debouch into France through this gap the more easily inasmuch as
+the French, relying on the neutrality of these two states, had not
+strongly fortified the frontier from the sea to Maubeuge. Moreover, as
+the country to the west of the Sambre was very easy country for
+manoeuvring and furnished with good roads and railways, it was reckoned
+that the formidable French lines to the south could be turned in this
+manner, and the German army could march upon Paris from the north-east.
+
+As to Luxemburg, plainly it could not in such a scheme remain neutral.
+It would lie between the two wings of the German army, and controlling
+as it did the roads to Brussels, Metz, and Aix-la-Chapelle, it could not
+be allowed to cause such inconvenience as to prevent easy communication
+between one portion of the German army and another.
+
+That such a plan was contemplated by the Germans has been for some years
+past a matter of common knowledge in England; and it has been also a
+matter of common opinion that the attempt to execute this plan would
+involve the active resistance of the British forces, to whom the duty
+was supposed to have been assigned of acting on the left flank of the
+French opposing the entry of the Germans from Belgian territory. The
+plea therefore that has been put forward that the British have now dealt
+the Germans 'a felon's blow' can only be put forward by persons who are
+either ignorant or heedless of what has been a matter of casual
+conversation all over England these last three years; and Sir Edward
+Grey himself was so convinced that the German Government knew what the
+consequences of a violation of Belgian neutrality would be that he
+informed Sir Francis Bertie on July 31st that the 'German Government do
+not expect our neutrality'.[9] There has been no secret about it
+whatever. It is incredible that the excitement and surprise of the
+Imperial Chancellor on the receipt of the ultimatum of August 4th should
+have been genuine, seeing that it involves miscalculation or
+misinformation entirely incompatible with what we know of the
+thoroughness of German methods. At the time of the Agadir crisis the
+military situation was the same, and the German War Office knew quite
+well what our part would then have been. Surprise at such action on our
+part in 1914 is little else than comedy, and can only have been
+expressed in order to throw the blame of German aggression on to the
+shoulders of Great Britain.
+
+This argument that Great Britain has taken the aggressive falls to the
+ground entirely when it is confronted with the hard facts of chronology.
+Far from attacking the Germans, we were so anxious to keep the peace
+that we were actually three days late in our mobilization to join the
+French on their left wing; and had it not been for the defence offered
+by Liege, our scruples would have gravely imperilled the common cause.
+For it was not until we were certain that Germany had committed what was
+tantamount to an act of war against us, by invading the neutral state of
+Belgium, that we delivered the ultimatum which led to the war.
+
+Notes:
+
+[Footnote 1: Cam. Mod. Hist. viii 301.]
+
+[Footnote 2: Ibid. 304.]
+
+[Footnote 3: Printed by A. Pearce Higgins, _The Hague Peace
+Conferences_, pp. 281-9.]
+
+[Footnote 4: The entire treaty will be found in Hertslet, _Map of Europe
+by Treaty_, vol. ii, pp. 979-98.]
+
+[Footnote 5: _Correspondence respecting the European Crisis_, (Cd.
+7467), No. 147. Minister of State, Luxemburg, to Sir E. Grey, Aug. 2.]
+
+[Footnote 6: Edward Hertslet, _The Map of Europe by Treaty_, vol. iii,
+p. 1806, no. 406. 'Proposal of _Prussia_ of Collective Guarantee by
+Powers of Neutrality of _Luxemburg_, London, 7th May, 1867.']
+
+[Footnote 7: Hertslet, _ut sup._, vol. iii, p. 1803. The High
+Contracting Powers were Great Britain, Austria, France, Belgium, Italy,
+the Netherlands, Prussia, and Russia.]
+
+[Footnote 8: _Dispatch from His Majesty's Ambassador at Berlin
+respecting the rupture of diplomatic relations with the German
+Government_ (Cd. 7445), Miscellaneous, no. 8, 1914.]
+
+[Footnote 9: _Correspondence respecting the European Crisis_, p. 62, no.
+116. July 31, 1914. See also _infra_ pp. 82 _et seqq_.]
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER II
+
+
+THE GROWTH OF ALLIANCES AND THE RACE OF ARMAMENTS SINCE 1871
+
+Even at the risk of being tedious it is essential that we should sketch
+in outline the events which have produced the present grouping of
+belligerent states, and the long-drawn-out preparations which have
+equipped them for conflict on this colossal scale. To understand why
+Austria-Hungary and Germany have thrown down the glove to France and
+Russia, why England has intervened not only as the protector of Belgium,
+but also as the friend of France, we must go back to the situation
+created by the Franco-German War. Starting from that point, we must
+notice in order the formation of the Triple Alliance between Germany,
+Austria-Hungary, and Italy, of the Dual Alliance between France and
+Russia, of the Anglo-French and the Anglo-Russian understandings. The
+Triple Alliance has been the grand cause of the present situation; not
+because such a grouping of the Central European Powers was
+objectionable, but because it has inspired over-confidence in the two
+leading allies; because they have traded upon the prestige of their
+league to press their claims East and West with an intolerable disregard
+for the law of nations. Above all it was the threatening attitude of
+Germany towards her Western neighbours that drove England forward step
+by step in a policy of precautions which, she hoped, would avert a
+European conflagration, and which her rivals have attempted to represent
+as stages in a Machiavellian design to ruin Germany's well-being. These
+precautions, so obviously necessary that they were continued and
+expanded by the most pacific Government which England has seen since Mr.
+Gladstone's retirement, have taken two forms: that of diplomatic
+understandings, and that of naval preparations. Whichever form they have
+taken, they have been adopted in response to definite provocations, and
+to threats which it was impossible to overlook. They have been strictly
+and jealously measured by the magnitude of the peril immediately in
+view. In her diplomacy England has given no blank cheques; in her
+armaments she has cut down expenditure to the minimum that, with
+reasonable good fortune, might enable her to defend this country and
+English sea-borne trade against any probable combination of hostile
+Powers.
+
+Let us consider (1) the development of the diplomatic situation since
+1870, (2) the so-called race of armaments since 1886.
+
+The Treaty of Frankfort (May 10, 1871), in which France submitted to the
+demands of the new-born German Empire, opened a fresh era of European
+diplomacy and international competition. The German Empire became at
+once, and has ever since remained, the predominant Power in Western
+Europe. The public opinion of this new Germany has been captured to no
+small extent by the views of such aggressive patriots as Treitschke, who
+openly avowed that 'the greatness and good of the world is to be found
+in the predominance there of German culture, of the German mind, in a
+word of the German character'. The school of Treitschke looked for the
+establishment of a German world-empire, and held that the essential
+preliminary to this scheme would be the overthrow of France and England.
+But until 1890, that is to say so long as Prince Bismarck remained
+Chancellor, no such ambitious programme was adopted by the German
+Government. Bismarck was content to strengthen the position of the
+Empire and to sow disunion among her actual or suspected enemies. In
+1872 he brought about a friendly understanding with Austria and Russia,
+the other two great Powers of Eastern Europe, the so-called
+_Dreikaiserbuendnis_, which was designed to perpetuate the _status quo_.
+But the friendship with Russia quickly cooled; it received a sharp
+set-back in 1875, when the Tsar Alexander II came forward rather
+ostentatiously to save France from the alleged hostile designs of
+Germany; it was certainly not improved when Bismarck in his turn
+mediated between Russia and her opponents at the Congress of Berlin
+(1878). On the other hand, a common interest in the Eastern Question
+drew closer the bonds between Germany and Austria. The latter felt
+herself directly menaced by the Balkan policy of Russia; the former was
+not prepared to see her southern neighbour despoiled of territory. Hence
+in 1879 was initiated that closer union between Germany and Austria
+which has been so largely responsible for the present situation. The
+Treaty of 1879, which was kept secret until 1887, was purely defensive
+in its character; but the terms showed that Russia was the enemy whom
+both the contracting Powers chiefly feared. Neither was bound to active
+measures unless the other should be attacked by Russia, or any Power
+which had Russian support. In 1882 the alliance of the two great German
+Powers was joined by Italy--a surprising development which can only be
+explained on the ground of Italy's feeling that she could not hope for
+security at home, or for colonial expansion in the Mediterranean, so
+long as she remained in isolation. The Triple Alliance so constituted
+had a frail appearance, and it was hardly to be expected that Italy
+would receive strong support from partners in comparison with whose
+resources her own were insignificant. But the Triple Alliance has
+endured to the present day, the most permanent feature of the diplomatic
+system of the last thirty-two years. Whether the results have been
+commensurate with the sacrifices of sentiment and ambition which Italy
+has made, it is for Italy to judge. On the whole she has been a sleeping
+partner in the Alliance; its prestige has served almost exclusively for
+the promotion of Austrian and German aims; and one of its results has
+been to make Austria a formidable rival of Italy in the Adriatic.
+
+Meanwhile the remaining Great Powers of Europe had continued, as Prince
+Bismarck hoped, to pursue their separate paths, though England was on
+friendly terms with France and had, equally with Russia, laboured to
+avert a second Franco-German War in 1875. After 1882 the English
+occupation of Egypt constituted for some years a standing grievance in
+the eyes of France. The persistent advance of Russia in Asia had in like
+manner been a source of growing apprehension to England since 1868; and,
+for a long time after the Treaty of Berlin, English statesmen were on
+the watch to check the growth of Russian influence in the Balkans. But
+common interests of very different kinds were tending to unite these
+three Powers, not in any stable alliance, even for mutual defence, but
+in a string of compacts concluded for particular objects.
+
+One of these interests was connected with a feeling that the policy of
+the principal partners in the Triple Alliance, particularly that of
+Germany, had become incalculable and was only consistent in periodic
+outbursts of self-assertiveness, behind which could be discerned a
+steady determination to accumulate armaments which should be strong
+enough to intimidate any possible competitor. The growth of this feeling
+dates from the dismissal of Prince Bismarck by the present Kaiser.
+Bismarck had sedulously courted the friendship of Russia, even after
+1882. He entered in fact into a defensive agreement with Russia against
+Austria. While he increased the war strength of the army, he openly
+announced that Germany would always stand on the defensive; and he
+addressed a warning to the Reichstag against the 'offensive-defensive'
+policy which was even then in the air, though it was still far from its
+triumph:--
+
+    'If I were to say to you, "We are threatened by France and Russia;
+    it is better for us to fight at once; an offensive war is more
+    advantageous to us," and ask for a credit of a hundred millions, I
+    do not know whether you would grant it--I hope not.'[10]
+
+But Bismarck's retirement (1890) left the conduct of German policy in
+less cautious hands. The defensive alliance with Russia was allowed to
+lapse; friction between the two Powers increased, and as the result
+Germany found herself confronted with the Dual Alliance of France and
+Russia, which gradually developed, during the years 1891-6, from a
+friendly understanding into a formal contract for mutual defence. There
+is no doubt that this alliance afforded France a protection against that
+unprovoked attack upon her eastern frontier which she has never ceased
+to dread since 1875; and it has yet to be proved that she ever abused
+the new strength which this alliance gave her.
+
+It is only in the field of colonial expansion that she has shown
+aggressive tendencies since 1896; and even here the members of the
+Triple Alliance have never shown serious cause for a belief that France
+has invaded their lawful spheres of interest. Her advance in Morocco was
+permitted by Italy and Spain; her vast dominion in French West Africa
+has been recognized by treaties with Germany and England; in East Africa
+she has Madagascar, of which her possession has never been disputed by
+any European Power; her growing interests in Indo-China have impinged
+only upon an English sphere of interest and were peacefully defined by
+an Anglo-French Agreement of 1896. France has been the competitor, to
+some extent the successful competitor, of Germany in West Africa, where
+she partially envelops the Cameroons and Togoland. But the German
+Government has never ventured to state the French colonial methods as a
+_casus belli_. That the German people have viewed with jealousy the
+growth of French power in Africa is a notorious fact. Quite recently, on
+the eve of the present war, we were formally given to understand that
+Germany, in any war with France, might annex French colonies[11]; and it
+is easy to see how such an object would reconcile the divergent policies
+of the German military and naval experts.
+
+Up to the eve of the present war Great Britain has consistently refused
+to believe that Germany would be mad enough or dishonest enough to enter
+on a war of aggression for the dismemberment of colonial empires. German
+diplomacy in the past few weeks has rudely shattered this conviction.
+But up to the year 1914 the worst which was generally anticipated was
+that she would pursue in the future on a great scale the policy, which
+she has hitherto pursued on a small scale, of claiming so-called
+'compensations' when other Powers succeeded in developing their colonial
+spheres, and of invoking imaginary 'interests' as a reason why the
+efforts of explorers and diplomatists should not be allowed to yield to
+France their natural fruits of increased colonial trade. It is not our
+business to impugn or to defend the partition of Africa, or the methods
+by which it has been brought about. But it is vital to our subject that
+we should describe the methods by which Germany has endeavoured to
+intimidate France at various stages of the African question. The trouble
+arose out of a Moroccan Agreement between England and France, which was
+the first definite proof that these two Powers were drifting into
+relations closer than that of ordinary friendship.
+
+In 1904 England and France settled their old quarrel about Egypt. France
+recognized the English occupation of Egypt; England, on her side,
+promised not to impede the extension of French influence in Morocco. It
+was agreed that neither in Egypt nor in Morocco should there be a
+political revolution; and that in both countries the customs tariff
+should make no distinction between one nation and another. This compact
+was accompanied by a settlement of the old disputes about French fishing
+rights in Newfoundland, and of more recent difficulties concerning the
+frontiers between French and English possessions in West Africa.[12] The
+whole group formed a step in a general policy, on both sides, of healing
+local controversies which had little meaning except as instruments of
+diplomatic warfare. The agreement regarding Egypt and Morocco is
+distinguished from that concerning West Africa and Newfoundland in so
+far as it recognizes the possibility of objections on the part of other
+Powers. It promised mutual support in the case of such objections; but
+not the support of armed force, only that of diplomatic influence.
+
+At the moment of these agreements Count Buelow told the Reichstag that
+Germany had no objection, as her interests were in no way imperilled by
+them. Later, however, Germany chose to regard the Moroccan settlement as
+an injury or an insult or both. In the following year the Kaiser made a
+speech at Tangier (March, 1905) in which he asserted that he would
+uphold the important commercial and industrial interests of Germany in
+Morocco, and that he would never allow any other Power to step between
+him and the free sovereign of a free country. It was subsequently
+announced in the German Press that Germany had no objection to the
+Anglo-French Agreement in itself, but objected to not having been
+consulted before it was arranged. This complaint was met, on the part of
+France, by the retirement of M. Delcasse, her Minister of Foreign
+Affairs, and by her assent to an International Conference regarding
+Morocco. The Conference met at Algeciras, and German pretensions were
+satisfied by an international Agreement.[13] It is to be observed that
+in this Conference the original claims of Germany were opposed, not only
+by Russia, from whom she could hardly expect sympathy, but even by
+Italy, her own ally. When Germany had finally assented to the Agreement,
+her Chancellor, in flat contradiction with his previous utterance 'that
+German interests were in no way imperilled by it', announced that
+Germany had been compelled to intervene by her economic interests, by
+the prestige of German policy, and by the dignity of the German Empire.
+
+The plain fact was that Germany, soon after the conclusion of the
+Anglo-French agreements, had found herself suddenly delivered from her
+preoccupations on the side of Russia, and had seized the opportunity to
+assert herself in the West while Russia was involved in the most
+critical stage of her struggle with Japan. But this war came to an end
+before the Convention of Algeciras had begun; and Russia, even in the
+hour of defeat and internal revolutions, was still too formidable to be
+overridden, when she ranged herself beside her Western ally.
+
+Of the part which England played in the Moroccan dispute there are
+different versions. What is certain is that she gave France her
+diplomatic support. But the German Chancellor officially acknowledged,
+when all was over, that England's share in the Anglo-French Agreement
+had been perfectly correct, and that Germany bore England no ill-will
+for effecting a _rapprochement_ with France. Still there remained a
+strong impression, not only in England and France, that there had been
+on Germany's part a deliberate intention to test the strength of the
+Anglo-French understanding and, if possible, to show France that England
+was a broken reed.
+
+It is not surprising that under these circumstances England has taken,
+since 1906, the precaution of freeing herself from any embarrassments in
+which she had previously been involved with other Powers. In 1905 she
+had shown her goodwill to Russia by exercising her influence to moderate
+the terms of the settlement with Japan. This was a wise step, consonant
+alike with English treaty-obligations to Japan and with the interests of
+European civilization. It led naturally to an amicable agreement with
+Russia (1907) concerning Persia, Afghanistan, and Tibet, the three
+countries which touch the northern borders of our Indian Empire. It
+cannot be too strongly emphasized that this agreement was of a local
+character, exactly as was that with France; that our friendly
+understandings with France and with Russia were entirely separate; and
+that neither related to the prosecution of a common policy in Europe;
+unless indeed the name of a policy could be given to the precaution,
+which was from time to time adopted, of permitting consultations between
+the French and English military experts. It was understood that these
+consultations committed neither country to a policy of common
+action.[14] England was drifting from her old attitude of 'splendid
+isolation'; but she had as yet no desire to involve herself, even for
+defensive purposes, in such a formal and permanent alliance as that
+which had been contracted by Germany, Austria, and Italy.
+
+But her hand was forced by Germany in 1911. Again the question of
+Morocco was made to supply a pretext for attacking our friendship with
+France. The German occupation of Agadir had, and could have, only one
+meaning. It was 'fastening a quarrel on France on a question that was
+the subject of a special agreement between France and us'.[15] The
+attack failed in its object. War was averted by the prompt action of the
+British Government. Mr. Asquith[16] announced that Great Britain, in
+discussing the Moroccan question, would have regard to British
+interests, which might be more directly involved than had hitherto been
+the case, and also to our treaty obligations with France. Somewhat later
+Mr. Asquith announced that if the negotiations between France and
+Germany did not reach a satisfactory settlement, Great Britain would
+become an active party to the discussion.[17] The nature of British
+interests were appropriately defined by Mr. Lloyd George in a Guildhall
+speech as consisting in the peace of the world, the maintenance of
+national honour, and the security of international trade.[18] The last
+phrase was a significant reference to the fact that Agadir, though
+valueless for commercial purposes, might be invaluable to any Power
+which desired to molest the South Atlantic trade routes. No one doubted
+then, or doubts to-day, that England stood in 1911 on the brink of a war
+which she had done nothing to provoke.
+
+The situation was saved in 1911 by the solidarity of England and France.
+Two Powers, which in the past had been separated by a multitude of
+prejudices and conflicting ambitions, felt at last that both were
+exposed to a common danger of the most serious character. Hence a new
+phase in the Anglo-French _entente_, which was cemented, not by a
+treaty, but by the interchange of letters between the English Secretary
+for Foreign Affairs (Sir Edward Grey) and the French Ambassador in
+London (M. Paul Cambon). On November 22, 1912, Sir Edward Grey[19]
+reminded M. Cambon of a remark which the latter had made, 'that if
+either Government had grave reason to expect an unprovoked attack by a
+third Power, it might become essential to know whether it could in that
+event depend on the armed assistance of the other.' Sir Edward Grey
+continued:--'I agree that if either Government had grave reason to
+expect an unprovoked attack by a third Power, or something that
+threatened the general peace, it should immediately discuss with the
+other whether both Governments should act together to prevent aggression
+and to preserve peace, and, if so, what measures they would be prepared
+to take in common. If these measures involved action, the plans of the
+General Staffs would at once be taken into consideration, and the
+Governments would then decide what effect should be given to them.'
+
+M. Cambon replied on the following day that he was authorized to accept
+the arrangement which Sir E. Grey had offered.[20]
+
+The agreement, it will be seen, was of an elastic nature. Neither party
+was bound to co-operate, even diplomatically, with the other. The
+undertaking was to discuss any threatening situation, and to take common
+measures if both agreed to the necessity; there was an admission that
+the agreement might result in the conduct of a joint defensive war upon
+a common plan. Such an understanding between two sovereign states could
+be resented only by a Power which designed to attack one of them without
+clear provocation.
+
+The date at which these notes were interchanged is certainly
+significant. In November, 1912, the Balkan Allies were advancing on
+Constantinople, and already the spoils of the Balkan War were in
+dispute. Servia incurred the hostility of Austria-Hungary by demanding
+Albania and Adriatic ports; and the Dual Monarchy announced that it
+could never accept this arrangement. Behind Servia Austrian statesmen
+suspected the influence of Russia; it was, they said, a scheme for
+bringing Russia down to a sea which Austria regarded as her own
+preserve. Austria mobilized her army, and a war could hardly have been
+avoided but for the mediation of Germany and England. If England had
+entertained the malignant designs with which she is credited in some
+German circles, nothing would have been easier for her than to fan the
+flames, and to bring Russia down upon the Triple Alliance. The notes
+show how different from this were the aims of Sir Edward Grey. He
+evidently foresaw that a war between Austria and Russia would result in
+a German attack upon France. Not content with giving France assurance of
+support, he laboured to remove the root of the evil. A congress to
+settle the Balkan disputes was held at London in December, 1912; and it
+persuaded Servia to accept a reasonable compromise, by which she
+obtained commercial access to the Adriatic, but no port. This for the
+moment pacified Austria and averted the world-war. To whom the solution
+was due we know from the lips of German statesmen. The German Chancellor
+subsequently (April 7, 1913) told the Reichstag:--
+
+    'A state of tension had for months existed between Austria-Hungary
+    and Russia which was only prevented from developing into war by the
+    moderation of the Powers.... Europe will feel grateful to the
+    English Minister of Foreign Affairs for the extraordinary ability
+    and spirit of conciliation with which he conducted the discussion of
+    the Ambassadors in London, and which constantly enabled him to
+    bridge over differences.'
+
+The Chancellor concluded by saying: 'We at any rate shall never stir up
+such a war'--a promise or a prophecy which has been singularly
+falsified.
+
+It is no easy matter to understand the line of conduct which Germany has
+adopted towards the great Slavonic Power on her flank. Since Bismarck
+left the helm, she has sometimes steered in the direction of
+subservience, and sometimes has displayed the most audacious insolence.
+Periodically, it is to be supposed, her rulers have felt that in the
+long run the momentum of a Russian attack would be irresistible; at
+other times, particularly after the Russo-Japanese War, they have
+treated Russia, as the Elizabethans treated Spain, as 'a colossus
+stuffed with clouts.' But rightly or wrongly they appear to have assumed
+that sooner or later there must come a general Armageddon, in which the
+central feature would be a duel of the Teuton with the Slav; and in
+German military circles there was undoubtedly a conviction that the epic
+conflict had best come sooner and not later. How long this idea has
+influenced German policy we do not pretend to say. But it has certainly
+contributed to her unenviable prominence in the 'race of armaments'
+which all thinking men have condemned as an insupportable, tax upon
+Western civilization, and which has aggravated all the evils that it was
+intended to avert.
+
+The beginning of the evil was perhaps due to France; but, if so, it was
+to a France which viewed with just alarm the enormous strides in
+population and wealth made by Germany since 1871. The 'Boulanger Law' of
+1886 raised the peace footing of the French army above 500,000 men, at a
+time when that of Germany was 427,000, and that of Russia 550,000.
+Bismarck replied by the comparatively moderate measure of adding 41,000
+to the German peace establishment for seven years; and it is significant
+of the difference between then and now that he only carried his Bill
+after a dissolution of one Reichstag and a forcible appeal to its
+successor.
+
+France must soon have repented of the indiscretion to which she had been
+tempted by a military adventurer. With a population comparatively small
+and rapidly approaching the stationary phase it was impossible that she
+could long maintain such a race. In 1893 Count Caprivi's law, carried
+like that of Bismarck after a stiff struggle with the Reichstag, raised
+the peace establishment to 479,000 men. Count Caprivi at the same time
+reduced the period of compulsory service from three years to two; but
+while this reform lightened the burden on the individual conscript, it
+meant a great increase in the number of those who passed through
+military training, and an enormous increase of the war strength. The
+Franco-Russian _entente_ of 1896 was a sign that France began to feel
+herself beaten in the race for supremacy and reduced to the defensive.
+In 1899 the German peace strength was raised to 495,000 for the next six
+years; in 1905 to 505,000. On the second of these occasions the German
+Government justified its policy by pointing out that the French war
+strength was still superior to that of Germany, and would become still
+stronger if France should change the period of service from three years
+to two. The German law was announced in 1904; it had the natural effect.
+The French Senate not only passed the new law early in 1905, but also
+swept away the changes which the Lower House had introduced to lighten
+the burden of annual training upon territorial reserves. France found
+her justification in the Moroccan episode of the previous year.
+
+This was not unreasonable; but since that date France has been heavily
+punished for a step which might be taken to indicate that _Revanche_ was
+still a feature of her foreign policy. Since 1886 her utmost efforts
+have only succeeded in raising her peace establishment to 545,000
+(including a body of 28,000 colonial troops stationed in France), and
+her total war strength to 4,000,000. In the same period the peace
+establishment of Germany was raised to over 800,000, and her total war
+strength of fully trained men to something like 5,400,000. It is obvious
+from these figures that a policy of isolation has long ceased to be
+possible to France; and that an alliance with Russia has been her only
+possible method of counterbalancing the numerical superiority of the
+German army, which is certainly not less well equipped or organized than
+that of France.
+
+This Russian alliance of France has been the only step in her
+continental policy which could be challenged as tending to overthrow the
+European balance. Undoubtedly it is France's prime offence in German
+eyes; and her colonial policy has only been attacked as a pretext for
+picking a quarrel and forcing on a decisive trial of strength before the
+growth of Russian resources should have made her ally impregnable.
+
+Let us now look at the German military preparations from a German point
+of view. The increases of the last twenty years in military expenditure
+and in fighting strength have been openly discussed in the Reichstag;
+and the debates have usually run on the same lines, because the
+Government up to 1912 pursued a consistent policy, framed for some years
+ahead and embodied in an Army Act. The underlying principle of these
+Army Acts (1893, 1899, 1905, 1911) was to maintain a fairly constant
+ratio between the peace strength and the population. But the war
+strength was disproportionately increased by the Caprivi Army Act of
+1893, which reduced the period of compulsory service from three years to
+two. The hardly-veiled intention of the German War Staff was to increase
+its war resources as rapidly as was consistent with the long-sufferance
+of those who served and those who paid the bill. It was taken as
+axiomatic that an increasing population ought to be protected by an
+increasing army. National defence was of course alleged as the prime
+consideration; and if these preparations were really required by growing
+danger on the two main frontiers of Germany, no German could do
+otherwise than approve the policy, no foreign Power could feel itself
+legitimately aggrieved.
+
+Unfortunately it has been a maxim of German policy in recent years that
+national independence means the power of taking the aggressive in any
+case where national interests or _amour-propre_ may prompt it. The
+increase of the German army, either in numbers or in technical
+efficiency, seems to be regularly followed by masterful strokes of
+diplomacy in which the 'mailed fist' is plainly shown to other
+continental Powers. Thus in 1909, at the close of a quinquennium of
+military re-equipment, which had raised her annual army budget from
+L27,000,000 to L41,000,000, Germany countenanced the Austrian annexation
+of Bosnia and the Herzegovina, and plainly told the authorities at St.
+Petersburg that any military action against Austria would bring Russia
+into a state of war with Germany. It was a startling step; _radix
+malorum_ we may call it, so far as the later development of the
+continental situation is concerned. Russia withdrew from the impending
+conflict in 1909, but it is improbable that she has ever forgiven the
+matter or the manner of the German ultimatum.
+
+In 1911 followed the episode of Agadir, which was clearly an attempt to
+'force a quarrel on France.' But in 1911 Germany realized that her
+military calculations had been insufficient, if she wished to continue
+these unamiable diplomatic manners. It was not a question of
+self-preservation; it was a question, as the German Chancellor told the
+Reichstag, of showing the world that 'Germany was firmly resolved not to
+be pushed aside.' Hence the sensational Army Bill of 1912, necessitated,
+as the Government told the Reichstag, by the events of 1911. The Russian
+peril could hardly be described as imminent. The Prussian Minister of
+War said publicly in 1911 that 'there was no Government which either
+desired or was seeking to bring about a war with Germany.' Russia had
+recently taken steps which, at Berlin, perhaps, were read as signs of
+weakness, but elsewhere were hailed as proofs of her desire for general
+peace. M. Isvolsky, the supposed champion of Balkan ideals, had retired
+from office; his successor, M. Sazonof, had accompanied the Czar to the
+Potsdam interview (1910); the outstanding disputes of Germany and Russia
+over their Persian interests had been settled by agreement in 1911.
+
+But the German Army Bill of 1912 was followed by Russia's intervention
+in the Balkans to secure for Servia at least commercial access to the
+Adriatic. This compromise, ostensibly promoted and belauded by German
+statesmanship, only increased the determination of the German Government
+to 'hold the ring' in the Balkans, to claim for Austria the right of
+settling her own differences with Servia as she would, and to deny
+Russia any interest in the matter. In 1913 came the supreme effort of
+the German General Staff: an Army Act for raising the peace strength by
+instalments until it reached 870,000, and for the eventual provision of
+a war strength of 5,400,000 men. This enormous increase was recommended
+'by the unanimous judgement of the military authorities' as being
+'necessary to secure the future of Germany.' The Chancellor warned the
+Reichstag that, although relations were friendly with Russia, they had
+to face the possibilities involved in the Pan-Slavist movement; while in
+Russia itself they had to reckon with a marvellous economic development
+and an unprecedented reorganization of the army. There was also a
+reference to the new law for a return to three years' service which
+France was introducing to improve the efficiency of her peace
+establishment. But it was obvious that Russia was the main
+preoccupation. Germany had forced the pace both in the aggrandizement of
+her military strength and in the methods of her diplomatic intercourse.
+Suddenly she found herself on the brink of an abyss. She had gone too
+far; she had provoked into the competition of armaments a Power as far
+superior to Germany in her reserves of men as Germany thought herself
+superior to France. It was not too late for Germany to pause. On her
+future behaviour towards other Powers it depended whether the Bill of
+1913 should be taken as an insurance against risks, or as a challenge to
+all possible opponents.
+
+The other Powers shaped their policy in accordance with Germany's
+example. In France, on March 4, the Supreme Council of War, having
+learned the outline of the German programme, decided to increase the
+effective fighting force by a return to the rule of three years'
+service. Before the German Bill had passed (June 30), the French Prime
+Minister announced (May 15) that he would of his own authority keep with
+the colours those who were completing their second year's service in the
+autumn. The French Army Bill, when finally passed (July 16), lowered the
+age limit for commencing service from twenty-one to twenty, and brought
+the new rule into force at once. A few weeks earlier (June 20) Belgium
+introduced universal military service in place of her former lenient
+system. In Russia a secret session of the Duma was held (July 8) to pass
+a new Army Budget, and the term of service was raised from three to
+three and a quarter years. Austria alone provided for no great increase
+in the numerical strength of her army; but budgeted (October 30) for
+extraordinary naval and military expenditure, to the extent of
+L28,000,000, to be incurred in the first six months of 1914. Thus on all
+sides the alarm was raised, and special preparations were put in hand,
+long before the crisis of 1914 actually arrived. It was Germany that had
+sounded the tocsin; and it is difficult to believe that some startling
+_coup_ was not even then being planned by the leaders of her military
+party.
+
+We have been told that, whatever the appearance of things might be, it
+was Russia who drove Germany to the extraordinary preparations of 1913;
+that Germany was arming simply in self-defence against a Slavonic
+Crusade. What are the facts? Economically Russia, as a state, is in a
+stronger position than the German Empire. In 1912 we were told that for
+the past five years the revenue of Russia had exceeded expenditure by an
+average sum of L20,000,000 per annum. The revenue of Russia in 1913 was
+over L324,000,000; she has budgeted for L78,000,000 of military
+expenditure in 1914, of which some L15,000,000 is emergency expenditure.
+The total revenue of the German Empire in 1913 was L184,000,000; she has
+budgeted for a military expenditure in 1914 of L60,000,000. To adopt the
+usual German tests of comparison, Russia has a population of 173
+millions to be defended on three land-frontiers, while Germany has a
+population of 65 millions to be defended on only two. The military
+efforts of Russia, therefore, have been made on a scale relatively
+smaller than those of Germany.
+
+We must, however, add some further considerations which have been urged
+by German military critics; the alleged facts we cannot test, but we
+state them for what they may be worth. The reorganization of the Russian
+army in recent years has resulted, so we are told, in the grouping of
+enormously increased forces upon the western frontier. The western
+fortresses also have been equipped on an unparalleled scale. New roads
+and railways have been constructed to accelerate the mobilization of the
+war strength; and, above all, strategic railways have been pushed
+towards the western frontier. Thus, it is argued, Russia has in effect
+gone behind the Potsdam Agreement of 1910, by which she withdrew her
+armies to a fixed distance behind the Russo-German frontier. We confess
+that, in all this, while there may have been cause for watchfulness on
+the part of Germany, we can see no valid cause for war, nothing that of
+necessity implies more than an intention, on the part of Russia, not to
+be brow-beaten in the future as she was in 1909 and 1912.
+
+These military developments did not escape English notice. They excited
+endless speculation about the great war of the future, and the part
+which this country might be asked to bear in it. Few, however, seriously
+supposed that we should commit ourselves to a share in the fighting upon
+land. The problem most usually discussed in this connexion was that of
+preparation to resist a sudden invasion from abroad. Was it possible to
+avoid compulsory service? Was the Territorial Force large enough and
+efficient enough to defend the country if the Expeditionary Force had
+gone abroad? Great Britain was infinitely better equipped for land
+warfare in August, 1914, than she had ever been in the nineteenth
+century. But her Expeditionary Force was a recent creation, and had been
+planned for the defence of India and the Colonies. In practice the
+country had clung to the 'Blue Water' policy, of trusting the national
+fortunes entirely to the Navy. The orthodox theory was that so long as
+the Navy was kept at the 'Two Power' standard, no considerable invasion
+of the British Isles was possible.
+
+But from 1898 the programmes of the German Navy Laws constituted a
+growing menace to the 'Two Power' standard, which had been laid down as
+our official principle in 1889, when France and Russia were our chief
+European rivals at sea. That France or Russia would combine with Germany
+to challenge our naval supremacy was improbable; but other states were
+beginning to build on a larger scale, and this multiplied the possible
+number of hostile combinations. That Germany should wish for a strong
+fleet was only natural. It was needed to defend her foreign trade, her
+colonial interests, and her own seaports. That Germany should lay down a
+definite programme for six years ahead, and that the programme should
+become more extensive at each revision, was no necessary proof of
+malice. But this country received a shock in 1900, when the programme of
+1898 was unexpectedly and drastically revised, so that the German Navy
+was practically doubled. England was at that moment involved in the
+South African War, and it was hard to see against whom the new fleet
+could be used, if not against England. This was pointed out from time to
+time by the Socialist opposition in the Reichstag. The orthodox official
+reply was that Germany must be so strong at sea that the strongest naval
+Power should not be able to challenge her with any confidence. But the
+feeling of the semi-official Navy League was known to be violently
+hostile to England; and it was obvious that the German navy owed its
+popularity to the alarmist propaganda of that league.
+
+It was impossible for English statesmen to avoid the suspicion that, on
+the sea as on land, the Germans meant by liberty the right to unlimited
+self-assertion. Common prudence dictated close attention to the German
+Navy Laws; especially as they proved capable of unexpected acceleration.
+The 'Two Power' standard, under the stress of German competition, became
+increasingly difficult to maintain, and English Liberals were inclined
+to denounce it as wasteful of money. But, when a Liberal Government
+tried the experiment of economizing on the Navy (1906-8), there was no
+corresponding reduction in the German programme. The German Naval Law of
+1906 raised the amount of the naval estimates by one-third; and German
+ministers blandly waved aside as impracticable a proposal for a mutual
+limitation of armaments.
+
+In 1909 this country discovered that in capital ships--which now began
+to be considered the decisive factor in naval warfare--Germany would
+actually be the superior by 1914 unless special measures were taken. The
+British Government was awakened to the new situation (it arose from the
+German Naval Law of 1908), and returned unwillingly to the path of
+increasing expenditure. The Prime Minister said that we regretted the
+race in naval expenditure and were not animated by anti-German feeling;
+but we could not afford to let our supremacy at sea be imperilled, since
+our national security depended on it (March 16, 1909). The 'Two Power'
+standard was dropped, and the Triple Alliance became the object of
+special attention at the Admiralty. The First Lord said on March 13,
+1911, that we should make our navy superior to any foreign navy and to
+any _probable_ combination which we might have to meet single-handed. In
+practice this meant a policy of developing, in the matter of
+Dreadnoughts, a superiority of sixty per cent, over the German navy;
+this, it was officially explained in 1912, had been for some years past
+the actual Admiralty standard of new construction (Mr. Winston
+Churchill, March 18, 1912).
+
+But even this programme had to be stiffened when the year 1912 saw a new
+German Navy Bill which involved an increased expenditure of L1,000,000
+annually for six years, and had the effect of putting nearly four-fifths
+of the German navy in a position of immediate readiness for war. Earlier
+in the year the British Government had announced that, if the German
+policy of construction were accelerated, we should add to our programme
+double the number which Germany put in hand; but if Germany relaxed her
+preparations we should make a fully proportionate reduction. The German
+Bill came as an answer to this declaration; and it was followed in this
+country by supplementary estimates on naval account, amounting to nearly
+a million pounds; and this was announced to be 'the first and smallest
+instalment of the extra expenditure entailed by the new German law.' The
+new British policy was maintained in 1913 and in 1914, though in 1913
+the First Lord of the Admiralty made a public offer of a 'naval
+holiday,' a suspension of new construction by mutual consent. The
+Imperial Chancellor responded only by suggesting that the proposal was
+entirely unofficial, by asking for concrete proposals, and by saying
+that the idea constituted a great progress; and his naval estimates in
+1913 were half a million higher than those of 1912.
+
+From these facts, viewed in their chronological order, it is clear that
+on sea as on land Germany has set the pace. Thirty years ago the German
+navy did not enter into England's naval calculations. For the last six
+years, if not for a longer period, it has been the one navy which our
+Admiralty felt the necessity of watching from year to year, and indeed
+from month to month. It is the first time for more than a hundred years
+that we have had to face the problem of 'a powerful homogeneous navy
+under one government and concentrated within easy distance of our
+shores.'
+
+On German principles we should long ago have adopted the
+'offensive-defensive.' We have been at least as seriously menaced by
+Germany at sea as Germany has been menaced by Russia upon land. But we
+can confidently say that in the period of rivalry our fleet has never
+been used as a threat, or turned to the purposes of an aggressive
+colonial policy. Rightly or wrongly, we have refused to make possible
+intentions a case for an ultimatum. We have held by the position that
+only a breach of public law would justify us in abandoning our efforts
+for the peace of Europe.
+
+NOTE
+
+_Abstract of Anglo-French Agreement on Morocco_.
+
+In April, 1904, England and France concluded an agreement for the
+delimitation of their interests on the Mediterranean littoral of North
+Africa. The agreement included five secret Articles which were not
+published until November, 1911. The purport of the Articles which were
+published at the time was as follows. By the first Article England
+stated that she had not the intention of changing the political state of
+Egypt; and France declared that she would not impede the action of
+England in Egypt by demanding that a term should be fixed for the
+British occupation or in any other way. By the second Article France
+declared that she had not the intention of changing the political state
+of Morocco; and England recognized that it appertained to France, as the
+Power conterminous with Morocco, to watch the tranquillity of this
+country and to assist it in all administrative, economic, financial, and
+military reforms which it required, France promised to respect the
+customary and treaty rights of England in Morocco; and by the third
+Article England made a corresponding promise to France in respect of
+Egypt. By the fourth Article the two Governments undertook to maintain
+'the principle of commercial liberty' in Egypt and Morocco, by not
+lending themselves in either country to inequality in the establishment
+of Customs-duties or of other taxes or of railway rates. The sixth and
+seventh Articles were inserted to ensure the free passage of the Suez
+Canal and of the Straits of Gibraltar. The eighth declared that both
+Governments took into friendly consideration the interests of Spain in
+Morocco, and that France would make some arrangements with the Spanish
+Monarchy. The ninth Article declared that each Government would lend its
+diplomatic support to the other in executing the clauses relative to
+Egypt and Morocco.[21] Of the secret Articles two (Nos. 3 and 4) related
+to Spain, defining the territory which she was to receive 'whenever the
+Sultan ceases to exercise authority over it,' and providing that the
+Anglo-French agreement would hold good even if Spain declined this
+arrangement. Article 1 stipulated that, if either Government found
+itself constrained, by the force of circumstances, to modify its policy
+in respect to Egypt or Morocco, nevertheless the fourth, sixth, and
+seventh Articles of the public declaration would remain intact; that is,
+each would under all circumstances maintain the principle of 'commercial
+liberty,' and would permit the free passage of the Suez Canal and the
+Straits of Gibraltar. In Article 2 England, while disclaiming any
+intention to alter the system of Capitulations or the judicial
+organization of Egypt, reserved the right to reform the Egyptian
+legislative system on the model of other civilized countries; and France
+agreed on condition that she should not be impeded from making similar
+reforms in Morocco. The fifth Article related to the Egyptian national
+debt.
+
+Notes:
+
+[Footnote 10: Quoted from Headlam's _Bismarck_, p. 444.]
+
+[Footnote 11: _Correspondence respecting the European Crisis_ (Cd.
+7467), No. 85. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey, July 29, 1914. See
+_infra_, Appendix II.]
+
+[Footnote 12: For these agreements see _The Times_, April 12, 1904, and
+November 25, 1911. See note at end of this chapter.]
+
+[Footnote 13: White Paper, Morocco No. 1 (1906).]
+
+[Footnote 14: _Correspondence_, No. 105 (Enclosure 1). Sir E. Grey to M.
+Cambon, November 22, 1912. See Appendix II.]
+
+[Footnote 15: _Correspondence_, No. 87. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie,
+July 29, 1914.]
+
+[Footnote 16: _Times_, July 7, 1911.]
+
+[Footnote 17: _Times_, July 27, 1911.]
+
+[Footnote 18: _Times_, July 22, 1911.]
+
+[Footnote 19: _Correspondence_, p. 57 (Enclosure 1 in No. 105). See
+Appendix II.]
+
+[Footnote 20: _Ibid_. p. 57 (Enclosure 2 in No. 105).]
+
+[Footnote 21: _Times_, April 12, 1904.]
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER III
+
+
+THE DEVELOPMENT OF RUSSIAN POLICY
+
+Until the year 1890 Russia and Germany had been in close touch. Dynastic
+connexions united the two imperial houses; and the common policy of
+repression of Polish nationality--the fatal legacy of the days of
+Frederic the Great and Catharine II--united the two empires. National
+sentiment in Russia was, however, always anti-German; and as early as
+1885 Balkan affairs began to draw the Russian Government away from
+Germany. In 1890 Bismarck fell; and under William II German policy left
+the Russian connexion, and in close touch with Austria embarked on
+Balkan adventures which ran counter to Russian aims, while Russia on her
+side turned to new allies.
+
+The new direction of Russian policy, which has brought the aims of the
+Russian Government into close accord with the desires of national Slav
+sentiment, was determined by Balkan conditions. Bismarck had cherished
+no Balkan ambitions: he had been content to play the part of an 'honest
+broker' at the Congress of Berlin, and he had spoken of the Bulgarian
+affair of 1885 as 'not worth the bones of a Pomeranian grenadier.'
+William II apparently thought otherwise. At any rate Germany seems to
+have conducted, for many years past, a policy of establishing her
+influence, along with that of Austria, through South-Eastern Europe. And
+it is this policy which is the _fons et origo_ of the present struggle;
+for it is a policy which is not and cannot be tolerated by Russia, so
+long as Russia is true to her own Slav blood and to the traditions of
+centuries.
+
+After Austria had finally lost Italy, as she did in 1866, she turned for
+compensation to the Balkans. If Venetia was lost, it seemed some
+recompense when in 1878 Austria occupied Bosnia and the Herzegovina.
+Hence she could expand southwards--ultimately perhaps to Salonica.
+Servia, which might have objected, was a vassal kingdom, the protege of
+Austria, under the dynasty of the Obrenovitch. As Austria might hope to
+follow the line to Salonica,[22] so Germany, before the end of the
+nineteenth century, seems to have conceived of a parallel line of
+penetration, which would carry her influence through Constantinople,
+through Konieh, to Bagdad. She has extended her political and economic
+influence among the small Slav states and in Turkey. In 1898 the King of
+Roumania (a Hohenzollern by descent) conceded direct communication
+through his territories between Berlin and Constantinople: in 1899 a
+German company obtained a concession for the Bagdad railway from Konieh
+to the head of the Persian Gulf. In a word, Germany began to stand in
+the way of the Russian traditions of ousting the Turk and ruling in
+Constantinople: she began to buttress the Turk, to train his army, to
+exploit his country, and to seek to oust Russia generally from
+South-Eastern Europe.
+
+In 1903 the progress of Austria and Germany received a check. A
+blood-stained revolution at Belgrade ousted the pro-Austrian
+Obrenovitch, and put in its place the rival family of the
+Karageorgevitch. Under the new dynasty Servia escaped from Austrian
+tutelage, and became an independent focus of Slav life in close touch
+with Russia. The change was illustrated in 1908, when Austria took
+advantage of the revolution in Turkey, led by the Young Turks, to annex
+formally the occupied territories of Bosnia and the Herzegovina. Servia,
+which had hoped to gain these territories, once a part of the old
+Servian kingdom, was mortally offended, and would have gone to war with
+Austria, if Russia, her champion under the new dynasty, could only have
+given her support. But Russia, still weak after the Japanese war, could
+not do so; Russia, on the contrary, had to suffer the humiliation of
+giving a pledge to the Austrian Ambassador at St. Petersburg that she
+would not support Servia. That humiliation Russia has not forgotten. She
+has saved money, she has reorganized her army, she has done everything
+in her power to gain security for the future. And now that Austria has
+sought utterly to humiliate Servia on the unproved charge (unproved, in
+the sense that no legal proof was offered)[23] of complicity in the
+murder of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand and his wife, Russia has risked
+war rather than surrender her protection of a Slav kingdom. Slav
+sentiment imperatively demanded action in favour of Servia: no
+government could refuse to listen to the demand. The stake for Russia is
+not merely the integrity of Servia: it is her prestige among the Slav
+peoples, of which she is head; and behind all lies the question whether
+South-Eastern Europe shall be under Teutonic control, and lost to
+Russian influence.
+
+Germany has not only threatened Slav life in South-Eastern Europe: she
+has irritated Slav feeling on her own Eastern frontier. The vitality and
+the increase of the Slavs in Eastern Germany has excited deep German
+alarm. The German Government has therefore of late years pursued a
+policy of repression towards its own Slav subjects, the Poles,
+forbidding the use of the Polish language, and expropriating Polish
+landowners in order to plant a German garrison in the East. Teutonism is
+really alarmed at the superior birth-rate and physical vigour of the
+Slavs; but Russia has not loved Teutonic policy, and there has been an
+extensive boycott of German goods in Russian Poland. The promise made by
+the Tsar, since the beginning of the war, that he would re-create the
+old Poland, and give it autonomy, shows how far Russia has travelled
+from the days, not so far distant in point of time, when it was her
+policy to repress the Poles in conjunction with Germany; and it has made
+the breach between Germany and Russia final and irreparable.
+
+It is thus obvious that Germany is vitally opposed to the great Slav
+Empire in South-Eastern Europe and on her own eastern borders. But why,
+it may be asked, should Russian policy be linked with English? Is there
+any bond of union except the negative bond of common opposition to
+Germany? There is. For one thing England and Russia have sought to
+pursue a common cause--that of international arbitration and of
+disarmament. If neither has succeeded, it has been something of a bond
+between the two that both have attempted to succeed. But there are other
+and more vital factors. England, which in 1854-6 opposed and fought
+Russia for the sake of the integrity of Turkey, has no wish to fight
+Russia for the sake of a Germanized Turkey. On the contrary, the
+interest of England in maintaining independence in the South-East of
+Europe now coincides with that of Russia. Above all, the new
+constitutional Russia of the Duma is Anglophil.
+
+    'The political ideals both of Cadets and Octobrists were learnt
+    chiefly from England, the study of whose constitutional history had
+    aroused in Russia an enthusiasm hardly intelligible to a present-day
+    Englishman. All three Dumas ... were remarkably friendly to England,
+    and England supplied the staple of the precedents and parallels for
+    quotation.'[24]
+
+In a word, the beginnings of Russian constitutionalism not only
+coincided in time with the Anglo-Russian agreement of 1907, but owed
+much to the inspiration of England.
+
+Notes:
+
+[Footnote 22: Count Aehrenthal, foreign minister of Austria (1906-1912),
+started the scheme of the Novi Bazar railway to connect the railways of
+Bosnia with the (then) Turkish line to Salonica. See also
+_Correspondence_, No. 19, Sir R. Rodd to Sir E. Grey, July 25: 'There is
+reliable information that Austria intends to seize the Salonica
+railway.']
+
+[Footnote 23: For a summary of so-called proofs, see Appendix IV,
+_infra_.]
+
+[Footnote 24: _Camb. Mod. Hist_. xii. 379.]
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER IV
+
+
+CHRONOLOGICAL SKETCH OF THE CRISIS
+
+The following sketch of events from June 28 to August 4, 1914, is merely
+intended as an introduction to the analytical and far more detailed
+account of the negotiations and declarations of those days which the
+reader will find below (Chap. V). Here we confine the narrative to a
+plain statement of the successive stages in the crisis, neither
+discussing the motives of the several Powers involved, nor
+distinguishing the fine shades of difference in the various proposals
+which were made by would-be mediators.
+
+The crisis of 1914 began with an unforeseen development in the old
+quarrel of Austria-Hungary and Russia over the Servian question. On June
+28 the Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir-apparent of the Austro-Hungarian
+monarchy, and his wife, the Duchess of Hohenberg, paid a visit of
+ceremony to the town of Serajevo, in Bosnia, the administrative centre
+of the Austrian provinces of Bosnia and the Herzegovina. In entering the
+town, the Archduke and the Duchess narrowly escaped being killed by a
+bomb which was thrown at their carriage. Later in the day they were shot
+by assassins armed with Browning pistols. The crime was apparently
+planned by political conspirators who resented the Austrian annexation
+of Bosnia and the Herzegovina (_supra_, p. 54), and who desired that
+these provinces should be united to Servia.
+
+The Austrian Government, having instituted an inquiry, came to the
+conclusion that the bombs of the conspirators had been obtained from a
+Servian arsenal; that the crime had been planned in Belgrade, the
+Servian capital, with the help of a Servian staff-officer who provided
+the pistols; that the criminals and their weapons had been conveyed from
+Servia into Bosnia by officers of Servian frontier-posts and by Servian
+customs-officials. At the moment the Austrian Government published no
+proof of these conclusions,[25] but, on July 23, forwarded them to the
+Servian Government in a formal note containing certain demands which, it
+was intimated, must be satisfactorily answered by Servia within
+forty-eight hours.[26] This ultimatum included a form of apology to be
+published on a specified date by the Servian Government, and ten
+engagements which the Servian Government were to give the
+Austro-Hungarian Government. The extraordinary nature of some of these
+engagements is explained in the next chapter (pp. 103-7).
+
+On July 24 this note was communicated by Austria-Hungary to the other
+Powers of Europe,[27] and on July 25 it was published in a German paper,
+the _Norddeutsche Allgemeine Zeitung_. It was therefore intended to be a
+public warning to Servia. On July 24 the German Government told the
+Powers that it approved the Austrian note, as being necessitated by the
+'Great-Servian' propaganda, which aimed at the incorporation in the
+Servian monarchy of the southern Slav provinces belonging to
+Austria-Hungary; that Austria, if she wished to remain a Great Power,
+could not avoid pressing the demands contained in the note, even, if
+necessary, by military measures; and that the question was one which
+concerned no Powers except Austria-Hungary and Servia.[28]
+
+Russia did not agree that the Austrian note was directed against Servia
+alone. On July 24 the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs told the
+British Ambassador at St. Petersburg that Austria's conduct was
+provocative and immoral; that some of her demands were impossible of
+acceptance; that Austria would never have taken such action unless
+Germany had first been consulted; that if Austria began military
+measures against Servia, Russia would probably mobilize. The Russian
+Minister hoped that England would proclaim its solidarity with France
+and Russia on the subject of the Austrian note; doubtless Servia could
+accept some of the Austrian demands.[29] To the Austro-Hungarian
+Government the Russian Minister sent a message, on the same day, July
+24, that the time-limit allowed to Servia for her reply was quite
+insufficient, if the Powers were to help in smoothing the situation; and
+he urged that Austria-Hungary should publish the proofs of the charges
+against Servia.[30] On July 25 Russia told England[31] that Servia would
+punish those proved to be guilty, but would not accept all the demands
+of Austria; that no independent state could do so. If Servia appealed to
+arbitration, as seemed possible, Russia was, she said, prepared to leave
+the arbitration in the hands of England, France, Germany, and Italy--the
+four Powers whom Sir Edward Grey had suggested as possible mediators.
+
+On the day on which Russia made this suggestion, July 25, the Servian
+Government replied to the Austrian note, conceding part of the Austrian
+demands, and announcing its readiness to accept, on the other points,
+the arbitration of the Hague Tribunal or of the Great Powers. The
+Austrian Government found the Servian note unsatisfactory, and
+criticized its details in an official memorandum.[32] The
+Austro-Hungarian Minister left Belgrade on July 25; on July 26 a part of
+the Austro-Hungarian army was mobilized; and on July 28 Austria-Hungary
+declared war on Servia.
+
+Sir Edward Grey had from the first declined to 'announce England's
+solidarity' with Russia and France on the Servian question. On and after
+July 26 he was taking active steps to bring about the mediation, between
+Austria-Hungary and Servia, of four Powers (Italy, Germany, France,
+England). To this mediation Russia had already agreed, July 25; and
+Italy and France were ready to co-operate with England.[33] Germany,
+however, made difficulties on the ground that anything like formal
+intervention would be impracticable, unless both Austria and Russia
+consented to it.[34] Russia had already (July 25) prepared the ukase
+ordering mobilization,[35] but had not yet issued it; on July 27 the
+Russian Foreign Minister announced his readiness to make the Servian
+question the subject of direct conversations with Vienna.[36] This offer
+was at first declined by the Austro-Hungarian Government, but
+subsequently accepted; and conversations were actually in progress
+between the representatives of the two Powers as late as August 1.[37]
+
+No doubt the hesitation of Austria was due to the fact that, on July 28,
+the Russian Government warned Germany of the mobilization of the
+southern military districts of Russia, to be publicly proclaimed on July
+29.[38] Austria replied to this intimation by offering assurances that
+she would respect the integrity and independence of Servia;[39] these
+assurances, considered inadequate by the Russian Government, seem to
+have been the subject of the last conversations between Russia and
+Austria-Hungary.
+
+Russia persisted that Germany was the real obstacle to a friendly
+settlement; and this conviction was not affected by the appeals for
+peace which the Kaiser telegraphed to the Tsar on July 28, July 29, and
+July 31.[40] On July 29 Germany told England that the Russian
+mobilization was alarming, and that France was also making military
+preparations;[41] at the same time Germany threatened to proclaim
+'imminent state of war' (_drohende Kriegsgefahr_) as a counter measure
+to the French preparations;[42] German military preparations, by July
+30, had in fact gone far beyond the preliminary stage which she thus
+indicated.[43] Germany had already warned England, France, and Russia
+that, if Russia mobilized, this would mean German mobilization against
+both France and Russia.[44] But on July 27, Russia had explained that
+her mobilization would in no sense be directed against Germany, and
+would only take place if Austrian forces crossed the Servian
+frontier.[45] On July 29, the day on which Russia actually mobilized the
+southern districts, Russia once more asked Germany to participate in the
+'quadruple conference' now proposed by England, for the purpose of
+mediating between Austria and Servia. This proposal was declined by the
+German Ambassador at St. Petersburg.[46] Germany in fact believed, or
+professed to believe, that the Russian mobilization, though not
+proclaimed, was already far advanced.[47]
+
+On July 30 Austria, although her conversations with Russia were still in
+progress, began the bombardment of Belgrade. The next day, July 31,
+Russia ordered general mobilization; on August 1 France and Germany each
+took the like step; Germany presented an ultimatum to Russia, demanding
+that Russian mobilization should cease, and another ultimatum to France
+asking what course she would take in the event of war between Germany
+and Russia.
+
+Before these decisive steps of July 30-August 1, and while Sir Edward
+Grey was still engaged in efforts of mediation, Germany made overtures
+to England, with the object of securing England's neutrality in the
+event of a war between Germany and France. On July 29 Germany offered,
+as the price of English neutrality, to give assurances that, if
+victorious, she would make no territorial acquisitions at the expense of
+France; but refused to give a similar assurance respecting French
+colonies, or to promise to respect Belgian neutrality.[48] These
+proposals were refused by England on July 30.[49] On August 1 the German
+Ambassador unofficially asked England to remain neutral on condition
+that Germany would not violate Belgian neutrality. Sir Edward Grey
+replied that England's hands were still free, and that he could not
+promise neutrality on that condition alone.[50]
+
+Meanwhile, on July 30, Sir Edward Grey was told by France that she would
+not remain neutral in a war between Germany and Russia.[51] On July 31
+the English Cabinet, being asked by France to declare definitely on her
+side, replied that England could give no pledge at present.[52] On the
+same day England asked France and Germany to engage to respect Belgian
+neutrality. France assented, Germany evaded giving a reply.[53] But, on
+August 2, German forces entered the neutral state of Luxemburg; and
+England promised to defend the French coasts and shipping if attacked by
+the German fleet in the Channel, or through the North Sea.[54] On August
+4 the King of the Belgians telegraphed to King George announcing that
+Germany had demanded passage for her troops through Belgian territory,
+and appealing to England for help.[55] On the same day, August 4,
+England sent an ultimatum to Germany asking for assurance, before
+midnight, that Germany would respect Belgian neutrality.[56] This demand
+was taken at Berlin as equivalent to a declaration of war by England
+against Germany.
+
+
+DIARY OF THE EVENTS LEADING TO THE WAR
+
+June 28. Assassination at Sarajevo of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand and
+the Duchess of Hohenberg.
+
+July 6. The Kaiser leaves Kiel for a cruise in Northern waters.
+
+July 9. Results of Austro-Hungarian investigation into the Servian crime
+laid before the Emperor.
+
+July 13, 14. Serious disclosures about condition of French army.
+
+July 13, 14, 15, 16. Heavy selling of Canadian Pacific Railway Shares,
+especially by Berlin operators.
+
+July 16. Count Tisza, the Hungarian Premier, speaking in the Hungarian
+Chamber, describes war as a sad _ultima ratio_, 'but every state and
+nation must be able and willing to make war if it wishes to exist as a
+state and a nation.'
+
+The _Times_ leading article 'Austria-Hungary and Servia' is commented on
+in Berlin as an 'English warning to Servia.'
+
+July 19. The King summons a conference to discuss the Home-Rule problem.
+
+July 21. The _Frankfurter Zeitung_ warns Austria-Hungary of the folly of
+its campaign against Servia.
+
+July 23. Thursday. Austria presents her Note to Servia giving her 48
+hours in which to accept.
+
+July 24. Friday. Russian Cabinet Council held. The Austro-Hungarian
+demands considered as an indirect challenge to Russia.--Strike at St.
+Petersburg.
+
+Failure of the conference on Home Rule.
+
+July 25. Saturday. Servian reply; considered unsatisfactory by
+Austria-Hungary, whose Minister and Legation-staff leave Belgrade.
+
+Russian Ambassador at Vienna instructed to request extension of
+time-limit allowed to Servia.
+
+Sir E. Grey suggests that the four other Powers should mediate at Vienna
+and St. Petersburg.--Serious riot in Dublin.
+
+July 26. Sunday. Sir E. Grey proposes that the French, Italian, and
+German Ambassadors should meet him in conference immediately for the
+purpose of discovering an issue which would prevent complications.
+
+Partial mobilization of Austro-Hungarian army ordered.
+
+Russian Foreign Minister warns German Ambassador that Russia cannot
+remain indifferent to the fate of Servia.
+
+Sir E. Goschen says the Kaiser is returning to-night.
+
+July 27. Monday. France and Italy accept proposal of a conference.
+German Secretary of State refuses the proposal of a 'conference.'
+
+Russian Minister for Foreign Affairs proposes direct conversation
+between Vienna and St. Petersburg.
+
+British Fleet kept assembled after manoeuvres.
+
+Sir E. Grey in the House of Commons makes a statement concerning the
+attitude of Great Britain.
+
+The _Times_ Berlin correspondent reports that the Kaiser returned this
+afternoon from Kiel to Potsdam.
+
+July 28. Tuesday. Austria-Hungary declares war on Servia.
+
+Russia says the key of the situation is to be found at Berlin.
+
+Austria declines any suggestion of negotiations on basis of the Servian
+reply.
+
+The Kaiser telegraphs to the Tsar.
+
+July 29. Wednesday. Russian mobilization in the four military districts
+of Odessa, Kiev, Moscow, and Kazan.
+
+Germany offers, in return for British neutrality, to promise territorial
+integrity of France, but will not extend the same assurance for French
+colonies.
+
+Sir E. Grey warns the German Ambassador that we should not necessarily
+stand aside, if all the efforts to maintain the peace failed.
+
+Austria at last realizes that Russia will not remain indifferent.
+
+The Tsar telegraphs to the Kaiser; the latter replies.
+
+July 30. Thursday. Bombardment of Belgrade by Austro-Hungarian forces.
+
+The Prime Minister speaks in the House of Commons on the gravity of the
+situation, and postpones discussion of the Home Rule Amending Bill.
+
+The Tsar telegraphs to the Kaiser.
+
+July 31. Friday. General Russian mobilization ordered.
+
+Sir E. Grey asks France and Germany whether they will respect neutrality
+of Belgium.
+
+France promises to respect Belgian neutrality; Germany is doubtful
+whether any answer will be returned to this request.
+
+Austria declares its readiness to discuss the substance of its ultimatum
+to Servia.
+
+Fresh telegrams pass between the Kaiser and the Tsar.
+
+Germany presents ultimatum to Russia demanding that her mobilization
+should cease within 12 hours.
+
+Germany presents an ultimatum to France asking her to define her
+attitude in case of a Russo-German war.
+
+English bankers confer with the Government about the financial
+situation.
+
+Aug. 1. Saturday. Sir E. Grey protests against detention of English
+ships at Hamburg.
+
+Orders issued for general mobilization of French army.
+
+Orders issued for general mobilization of German army.
+
+Aug. 2. Sunday. Germans invade Luxemburg.
+
+Sir E. Grey gives France an assurance that the English fleet will
+protect the North Coast of France against the German fleet.
+
+Germans enter French territory near Cirey.
+
+Aug. 3. Monday. Italy declares itself neutral, as the other members of
+the Triple Alliance are not engaged in a defensive war.
+
+Germany presents an ultimatum to Belgium.
+
+Sir E. Grey makes an important speech in the House of Commons.
+
+Aug. 4. Tuesday. Germans enter Belgian territory.
+
+Britain presents an ultimatum to Germany demanding an answer by
+midnight.
+
+The Prime Minister makes a speech in the House of Commons, practically
+announcing war against Germany and explaining the British position.
+
+Aug. 6. Austria-Hungary declares war on Russia.
+
+Aug. 11. The French Ambassador at Vienna demands his passport.
+
+Aug. 12. Great Britain declares war on Austria-Hungary.
+
+Notes:
+
+[Footnote 25: Extracts are printed in the German version of the German
+White Book (pp. 28-31) from an Austrian official publication of July 27.
+We print the extracts (the original not being accessible in this
+country) in Appendix IV.]
+
+[Footnote 26: Full text _infra_ in Appendix I (German White Book, pp.
+18-23); more correctly in _Correspondence respecting the European
+Crisis_, No. 4, Count Berchtold to Count Mensdorff, July 24; but the
+differences between the two versions are immaterial for our present
+purpose.]
+
+[Footnote 27: See the communication to England in _Correspondence_, No.
+4.]
+
+[Footnote 28: _Correspondence_, No. 9, Note communicated by the German
+Ambassador, July 24.]
+
+[Footnote 29: _Correspondence_, No. 6, Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey,
+July 24.]
+
+[Footnote 30: _Correspondence_, No. 13, Note communicated by Russian
+Ambassador, July 25.]
+
+[Footnote 31: _Correspondence_, No. 17, Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey,
+July 25.]
+
+[Footnote 32: For text of Servian note see _infra_ Appendix I (German
+White Book, pp. 23-32). The Austrian comments also are given there.]
+
+[Footnote 33: _Correspondence_, No. 42, Sir F. Bertie to Sir E. Grey,
+July 27; _ibid_. No. 49, Sir E. Grey to Sir R. Rodd, July 27.]
+
+[Footnote 34: _Correspondence_, No. 43. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey,
+July 27.]
+
+[Footnote 35: German White Book, p. 46 (_infra_ in Appendix I). The Tsar
+to His Majesty, July 30.]
+
+[Footnote 36: _Correspondence_, No. 45. Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey.]
+
+[Footnote 37: Austria declined conversations on July 28
+(_Correspondence_, No. 93); but for conversations of July 31 see
+_Correspondence_, No. III; of August I, see Appendix V.]
+
+[Footnote 38: _Correspondence_, No. 70 (I). M. Sazonof to Russian
+Ambassador at Berlin, July 28.]
+
+[Footnote 39: _Correspondence_, No. 72. Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey,
+July 28.]
+
+[Footnote 40: German White Book, pp. 43, 45 (in Appendix I, _infra_).]
+
+[Footnote 41: _Correspondence_, No. 76. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey,
+July 29.]
+
+[Footnote 42: German White Book, p. 42, Exhibit 17 (_infra_, Appendix
+I).]
+
+[Footnote 43: _Correspondence_, No. 105 (Enclosure 3), July 30.]
+
+[Footnote 44: German White Book, p. 7; the date of the warning seems to
+be July 27.]
+
+[Footnote 45: German White Book, p. 40, Exhibit II.]
+
+[Footnote 46: _Ibid_. p. 9.]
+
+[Footnote 47: _Ibid_. p. 10.]
+
+[Footnote 48: _Correspondence_, No. 85. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey,
+July 29.]
+
+[Footnote 49: _Ibid_. No. 101. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen, July 30.]
+
+[Footnote 50: _Correspondence_, No. 123. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen,
+Aug. 1.]
+
+[Footnote 51: _Ibid_. No. 105. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie, July 30.]
+
+[Footnote 52: _Ibid_. No. 119. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie, July 31.]
+
+[Footnote 53: _Ibid_. No. 114, 120, 122.]
+
+[Footnote 54: _Ibid_. No. 148. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie, Aug. 2.]
+
+[Footnote 55: _Ibid_. No. 153. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen, Aug. 4.]
+
+[Footnote 56: _Ibid_. No. 159. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen, Aug. 4]
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER V
+
+
+NEGOTIATORS AND NEGOTIATIONS
+
+For purposes of reference the following list of _dramatis personae_ may
+be useful:--
+
+GREAT BRITAIN: King George V, _succ_. 1910.
+_Foreign Secretary_: Sir Edward Grey.
+_Ambassadors from France_: M. Paul Cambon.
+  _Russia_: Count Benckendorff.
+  _Germany_: Prince Lichnowsky.
+  _Austria_: Count Albert Mensdorff-Pouilly-Dietrichstein.
+  _Belgium_: Count A. de Lalaing (_Minister_).
+
+RUSSIA: Emperor Nicholas II, _succ_. 1894.
+_Foreign Secretary_: M. Sazonof.
+_Ambassadors from Great Britain_: Sir George Buchanan.
+  _France_: M. Paleologue.
+  _Germany_: Count Pourtales.
+  _Austria_: Friedrich Count Szapary.
+
+FRANCE: Raymond Poincare, _President, elected_ 1913.
+_Premier_: M. Viviani.
+_Acting Foreign Secretary_: M. Doumergue.
+_Ambassadors from Great Britain_: Sir Francis Bertie.
+  _Russia_: M. Isvolsky.
+    M. Sevastopoulo (_Charge d'Affaires_).
+  _Germany_: Baron von Schoen.
+  _Austria_: Count Scezsen.
+
+GERMANY: Emperor William II, _succ_. 1888.
+_Imperial Chancellor_: Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg.
+_Foreign Secretary_: Herr von Jagow.
+_Ambassadors from Great Britain_: Sir Edward Goschen.
+    Sir Horace Rumbold (_Councillor_).
+  _Russia:_ M. Swerbeiev.
+    M. Bronewsky (_Charge d'Affaires_).
+  _France:_ M. Jules Cambon.
+  _Austria_: Count Ladislaus Szoegyeny-Marich.
+
+AUSTRIA-HUNGARY: Emperor Francis Joseph, _succ_. 1848.
+_Foreign Secretary_: Count Berchtold.
+_Ambassadors from Great Britain_: Sir Maurice de Bunsen.
+  _Russia_: M. Schebesco.
+    M. Kondachev (_Charge d'Affaires_).
+  _France_: M. Crozier.
+  _Germany_: Herr von Tschirscky-und-Boegendorff.
+
+ITALY: King Victor Emmanuel III, _succ_. 1900.
+_Foreign Secretary_: Marquis di San Giuliano.
+_Ambassador from Great Britain_: Sir Rennell Rodd.
+
+BELGIUM: King Albert, _succ_. 1909.
+_Minister of Great Britain_: Sir Francis Villiers.
+
+SERVIA: King Peter, _succ_. 1903.
+_Minister of Great Britain_: C.L. des Graz.
+  D.M. Crackanthorpe (_First Secretary_).
+_Russian Charge d'Affaires_: M. Strandtmann.
+
+
+I
+
+_Germany's attitude to Austria and Russia_.
+
+From the very beginning of the conversations between the Powers on the
+assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand at Serajevo, and on the
+Austrian note to Servia, the German Government took up the attitude that
+it was a 'matter for settlement between Servia and Austria alone.'[57]
+Subsequently in their White Book they endeavoured to show that the
+Servian agitation was part of Russian propagandism.[58] In the
+negotiations, the cardinal point of their observations is that Russia is
+not to interfere in this matter, although M. Paul Cambon pointed out
+that 'Russia would be compelled by her public opinion to take action as
+soon as Austria attacked Servia'.[59]
+
+After the presentation of the Austrian note to Servia, Germany continued
+to maintain the position that the crisis could be localized, and to
+reject Sir Horace Rumbold's suggestion that 'in taking military action
+in Servia, Austria would dangerously excite public opinion in
+Russia'.[60]
+
+At Vienna Sir Maurice de Bunsen, the British Ambassador, was very
+frankly told by the German Ambassador that Germany was shielding Austria
+in the Servian business:--
+
+    'As for Germany, she knew very well what she was about in backing up
+    Austria-Hungary in this matter.... Servian concessions were all a
+    sham. Servia proved that she well knew that they were insufficient
+    to satisfy the legitimate demands of Austria-Hungary by the fact
+    that before making her offer she had ordered mobilization and
+    retirement of Government from Belgrade.'[61]
+
+M. Sazonof, the Russian Foreign Minister, seems to have divined this
+policy of Germany pretty soon:--
+
+    'My interviews with the German Ambassador confirm my impression that
+    Germany is, if anything, in favour of the uncompromising attitude
+    adopted by Austria. The Berlin Cabinet, who could have prevented the
+    whole of this crisis developing, appear to be exercising no
+    influence upon their ally.... There is no doubt that the key of the
+    situation is to be found at Berlin.'[62]
+
+When at the beginning of August the crisis had led to war, it is
+interesting to observe the opinions expressed by high and well-informed
+officials about German diplomacy. M. Sazonof summed up his opinion
+thus:--
+
+    'The policy of Austria had throughout been tortuous and immoral, and
+    she thought she could treat Russia with defiance, secure in the
+    support of her German ally. Similarly the policy of Germany had been
+    an equivocal and double-faced policy, and it mattered little whether
+    the German Government knew or did not know the terms of the Austrian
+    ultimatum; what mattered was that her intervention with the Austrian
+    Government had been postponed until the moment had passed when its
+    influence would have been felt. Germany was unfortunate in her
+    representatives in Vienna and St. Petersburg; the former was a
+    violent Russophobe who had urged Austria on, the latter had reported
+    to his Government that Russia would never go to war.'[63]
+
+And Sir Maurice de Bunsen on the same day wrote that he agreed with his
+Russian colleague that
+
+    'the German Ambassador at Vienna desired war from the first, and his
+    strong personal bias probably coloured his action here. The Russian
+    Ambassador is convinced that the German Government also desired war
+    from the first.'[64]
+
+Sir Maurice does not actually endorse this opinion concerning the
+attitude of the German Government, but there can be no doubt that this
+general attitude was most pernicious to the cause of European peace, and
+that if the German Government had desired war they could scarcely have
+acted more efficiently towards that end. No diplomatic pressure was put
+upon Vienna, which under the aegis of Berlin was allowed to go to any
+lengths against Servia. Over and over again the German diplomats were
+told that Russia was deeply interested in Servia, but they would not
+listen. As late as July 28th the German Chancellor himself refused 'to
+discuss the Servian note', adding that 'Austria's standpoint, and in
+this he agreed, was that her quarrel with Servia was a purely Austrian
+concern with which Russia had nothing to do'.[65] Next day the German
+Ambassador at Vienna was continuing 'to feign surprise that Servian
+affairs could be of such interest to Russia'.[66] But in their White
+Book, in order to blacken the character of Russia, the Germans remark
+that they 'were perfectly aware that a possible warlike attitude of
+Austria-Hungary against Servia might bring Russia into the field'.[67]
+Both stories cannot be true: the German Government have, not for the
+last time in the history of these negotiations, to choose between
+ineptitude and guilt; the ineptitude of not recognizing an obvious fact,
+and the guilt of deliberately allowing Austria to act in such a way that
+Russia was bound to come into the field.
+
+When Austria presented her ultimatum, Sir Edward Grey did all he could
+to obtain the good offices of Russia for a conciliatory reply by Servia,
+and to persuade the German Government to use influence with Austria so
+that she should take a friendly attitude to Servia. On the day of the
+presentation of the Austrian note he proposed to Prince Lichnowsky, the
+German Ambassador, the co-operation of the four Powers, Germany, France,
+Italy, and Great Britain, in favour of moderation at Vienna and St.
+Petersburg, and when the Austrians rejected the Servian reply he took
+the important step of proposing that the French, Italian, and German
+Ambassadors should meet him in conference immediately 'for the purpose
+of discovering an issue which would prevent complications'.[68] The
+proposal was accepted with alacrity by the French and Italian
+Governments. The German Secretary for Foreign Affairs, Herr von Jagow,
+on the other hand, was unable or unwilling to understand the proposal,
+and Sir Edward Goschen seems to have been unable to impress its real
+character upon the Government of Berlin. For Herr von Jagow, on receipt
+of the proposal, informed the British Ambassador, Sir Edward Goschen,
+that the conference suggested
+
+    'would practically amount to a court of arbitration and could not in
+    his opinion be called together except at the request of Austria and
+    Russia. He could not therefore fall in with it.'
+
+Sir Edward Goschen not unnaturally pointed out that
+
+    'the idea had nothing to do with arbitration, but meant that
+    representatives of the four nations not directly interested should
+    discuss and suggest means for avoiding a dangerous situation'.[69]
+
+Herr von Jagow spoke in the same sense to the French and Italian
+Ambassadors, who discussed the matter with their British colleague. Some
+doubt seems to have arisen in their minds as to the sincerity of the
+German Secretary of State's loudly expressed desire for peace; but,
+giving him the benefit of the doubt, they concluded that the objection
+must be to the 'form of the proposal'. 'Perhaps', added Sir Edward
+Goschen, 'he himself could be induced to suggest lines on which he would
+find it possible to work with us.'[70] The next day the same idea was
+pressed by Sir Edward Grey upon Prince Lichnowsky:--
+
+    'The whole idea of mediation or mediating influence was ready to be
+    put into operation by any method that Germany could suggest if mine
+    was not acceptable.'[71]
+
+But owing to German dilatoriness in this matter, events had by then gone
+so far that the very gravest questions had arisen for this country.
+
+With the refusal of the German Government to propose a form of mediation
+acceptable to themselves before graver events had occurred, the first
+period of the negotiation comes to an end. The responsibility of
+rejecting a conference, which, by staving off the evil day, might have
+preserved the peace of Europe, falls solely on the shoulders of Germany.
+The reasons advanced by Herr von Jagow were erroneous, and though Dr.
+von Bethmann-Hollweg, the Imperial Chancellor, was more conciliatory and
+sympathetic, it may be noted that the German White Book[72] continues to
+misrepresent Sir Edward Grey's proposal as a conference on the
+particular question of the Austro-Servian dispute, and not on the
+general situation of Europe.
+
+In the period that follows come spasmodic attempts at negotiation by
+direct conversations between the parties concerned, with no advantage,
+but rather with the growth of mutual suspicion. Down to August 1st both
+Sir Edward Grey and M. Sazonof were busy trying to find some formula
+which might be accepted as a basis for postponing hostilities between
+the Great Powers. And here it may be well to point out that Prince
+Lichnowsky seems to have been left in the dark by his chiefs. On July
+24th, the day after the Austrian note was presented, he was so little
+acquainted with the true state of affairs, that speaking privately he
+told Sir Edward Grey 'that a reply favourable on some points must be
+sent at once by Servia, so that an excuse against immediate action might
+be afforded to Austria'.[73] And in the matter of the conference, on the
+very day that Herr von Jagow was making his excuses against entering the
+proposed conference, Prince Lichnowsky informed Sir Edward Grey, that
+the German Government accepted in principle mediation between Austria
+and Russia by the four Powers, reserving, of course, their right as an
+ally to help Austria if attacked.[74] The mutual incompatibility of the
+two voices of Germany was pointed out from Rome, where the Marquis di
+San Giuliano, the Italian Foreign Minister, attempted a reconciliation
+between them, on information received from Berlin, that 'the difficulty
+was rather the "conference" than the principle'.[75] But we may ask
+whether Herr von Jagow's reply to Sir Edward Goschen does not really
+show that the whole principle of a conference was objected to, seeing
+that he said that such a 'conference was not practicable', and that 'it
+would be best to await the outcome of the exchange of views between the
+Austrian and Russian Governments'.[76] But, if it was not the principle
+that was objected to, but only the form, where are we? We can do nothing
+else but assume that the German Government objected to the terms
+employed by Sir Edward Grey, and that for the sake of a mere quibble
+they wasted time until other events made the catastrophe inevitable.
+Impartiality will have to judge whether such action was deliberate or
+not; whether in this case also it is crime or folly which has to be laid
+at the door of the German Government.
+
+The proposed conference having been rejected by Germany, an attempt was
+then made by several Powers to invite Austria to suspend military
+action. Although Count Mensdorff, the Austrian Ambassador in London, had
+made on July 25th a distinction between military preparations and
+military operations, and had urged that his Government had only the
+former then in view, it was reported two days later from Rome that there
+were great doubts 'whether Germany would be willing to invite Austria to
+suspend military action pending the conference'. Even if she had been
+willing to do so, it is very doubtful whether, in view of the Austrian
+declaration of war against Servia on July 28th, and the simultaneous
+Austrian decree for general mobilization, the position of Europe could
+have been improved, for on July 29th that declaration was followed by
+news of the Russian mobilization of the southern districts of Odessa,
+Kiev, Moscow, and Kazan.[77]
+
+Now the German Secretary of State had argued that 'if Russia mobilized
+against Germany, latter would have to follow suit'. On being asked what
+he meant by 'mobilizing against Germany', he said that
+
+    'if Russia mobilized in the South, Germany would not mobilize, but
+    if she mobilized in the north, Germany would have to do so too, and
+    Russian system of mobilization was so complicated that it might be
+    difficult exactly to locate her mobilization. Germany would
+    therefore have to be very careful not to be taken by surprise.'[78]
+
+This was on July 27th, and it cannot be said to have been unreasonable.
+But when on July 29th Russia mobilized the southern districts no grounds
+for German mobilization had yet been provided. No secret was made about
+this mobilization by the Russian Ambassador at Berlin,[79] but it is
+perhaps as well to point out here the remark made by Sir George
+Buchanan, the British Ambassador at St. Petersburg, about the language
+used by his German colleague concerning the mobilization of the four
+southern districts: 'He accused the Russian Government of endangering
+the peace of Europe by their mobilization, and said, when I referred to
+all that had recently been done by Austria, that he could not discuss
+such matters.'[80] It would perhaps be rash to assume that the German
+Ambassador, Count Pourtales, used such language to his home Government,
+for there is no evidence of it in the German White Book. What dispatches
+appear there from the German Embassy at St. Petersburg are refreshingly
+honest. The military attache says, 'I deem it certain that mobilization
+has been ordered for Kiev and Odessa'. He adds: 'it is doubtful at
+Warsaw and Moscow, and improbable elsewhere'.[81]
+
+There was therefore, according to the evidence produced by the Germans
+themselves, no mobilization 'against Germany'. The only thing that looks
+at all like hostile action is contained in the news sent by the Imperial
+German Consul at Kovno on July 27th, that a 'state of war'
+(_Kriegszustand_) had been proclaimed in that district. But this is a
+very different thing from mobilization; it was almost bound to follow in
+the northern provinces of the Empire as the result of mobilization
+elsewhere. At any rate the Consul at Kovno announced it on July 27th
+before any Russian mobilization at all had taken place, and the fact
+that Germany did not instantly mobilize shows that at the end of July
+that Government did not consider _Kriegszustand_ in Kovno to be
+equivalent to 'mobilization against Germany'.
+
+Opinion in Berlin seems to have been that Russia would not make war.
+Perhaps there was no real fear that Russia would take an aggressive
+attitude, for many people believed that 'Russia neither wanted, nor was
+in a position to make war'.[82] This attitude of mind was known and
+deplored in Rome, where the Marquis di San Giuliano said 'there seemed
+to be a difficulty in making Germany believe that Russia was in
+earnest'.[83] Such an opinion seems to have been shared by Count
+Pourtales, who on July 29 reported that the German Government were
+willing to guarantee that Servian integrity would be respected by
+Austria. This was held to be insufficient, as Servia might thus become
+an Austrian vassal, and there would be a revolution in Russia if she
+were to tolerate such a state of affairs. The next day the Russian
+Minister for Foreign Affairs told the British and French Ambassadors
+'that absolute proof was in the possession of the Russian Government
+that Germany was making military and naval preparations against
+Russia--more particularly in the direction of the Gulf of Finland'.[84]
+
+After this, is it difficult to see how German statesmen regarded the
+situation? Russia, in their eyes, was playing a game of bluff, and
+strong measures against her were in the interest of Germany. But, though
+under no illusion as to German preparations, M. Sazonof offered on July
+30 to stop all military preparations if Austria 'would eliminate from
+her ultimatum to Servia points which violate the principle of the
+sovereignty of Servia'.[85] 'Preparations for general mobilization will
+be proceeded with if this proposal is rejected by Austria,' wrote Sir
+George Buchanan.[86] The next day he reported to Sir Edward Grey that
+all attempts to obtain the consent of Austria to mediation had failed,
+and that she was moving troops against Russia as well as against
+Servia.[87]
+
+Face to face therefore with war against another Power, Russia ordered a
+general mobilization.[88] This was answered on the same day by a
+proclamation of _Kriegsgefahr_ at Berlin, 'as it can only be against
+Germany that Russian general mobilization is directed'.[89]
+
+Thus on Friday, July 31st, the situation had come to be this, that
+Russia, feeling herself threatened by the military preparations of
+Austria and Germany, decided to issue orders for a general
+mobilization.[90] Meanwhile Sir Edward Grey still clung to the hope that
+mediation with a view to safeguarding Austrian interests as against
+Servia might yet be accepted.[91] But his efforts were useless, for
+Germany had launched an ultimatum (July 31) to Russia, demanding
+demobilization. As Sir Edward Goschen pointed out, the demand was made
+'even more difficult for Russia to accept by asking them to demobilize
+in the south as well'.[92] The only explanation actually vouchsafed was
+that this had been asked to prevent Russia pleading that all her
+mobilization was only directed against Austria. Such a quibble, when
+such interests are at stake, seems to call for severe comment.
+
+War between the three empires seemed now inevitable, for though the
+Emperor of Russia and the German Emperor had exchanged telegrams each
+imploring the other to find a way out of the difficulty, and each saying
+that matters had gone so far that neither could grant the other's
+demands,[93] the officials at Berlin were now taking up the position
+that 'Russia's mobilization had spoilt everything'.[94] This attitude is
+as inexplicable as it proved disastrous. For it appears that on July 31
+Austria and Russia were ready to resume conversations. The Austrians,
+apparently alarmed at the prospect of a general war, were ready to
+discuss the substance of the Austrian ultimatum to Servia, and Russia
+announced that under certain conditions 'she would undertake to preserve
+her waiting attitude'.[95] Having issued her ultimatum to Russia,
+Germany naturally mobilized, but what kind of diplomacy is this in
+which, with the principals both ready to negotiate, a third party issues
+an ultimatum couched in such terms that a proud country can give but one
+answer?
+
+The sequence of events seems to be as follows. Austria mobilized against
+Servia. Russia, rightly or wrongly, took this as a threat to herself,
+and mobilized all her southern forces against Austria. Then Germany
+threatened to mobilize unless Russia ceased her military
+preparations--an inexcusable step, which increased Russia's
+apprehensions of a general war, and made a general Russian mobilization
+inevitable.[96] If Russia was the first to mobilize, she took this step
+in consequence of German threats. We repeat that in spite of the three
+empires taking this action, discussion was still possible between Russia
+and Austria,[97] and might have had good results. In fact, the situation
+was not irretrievable, if Germany had not rendered it so by issuing her
+ultimatum to Russia. Once again we may ask, was this crime or folly?
+
+
+II
+
+_Germany's attitude to France._
+
+We must now turn our eyes to the West of Europe, and observe the
+diplomacy of Germany with regard to France and Great Britain. On the
+27th of July we are told that the German Government received 'the first
+intimation concerning the preparatory measures taken by France: the 14th
+Corps discontinued the manoeuvres and returned to its garrison'.[98]
+Will it be believed that, except for the assertion 'of rapidly
+progressing preparations of France, both on water and on land',[99] this
+is the only shred of evidence that the Germans have produced to prove
+the aggressive intentions of France? And it may be worth while to point
+out that on July 29, when the German White Book says that Berlin heard
+of the 'rapidly progressing preparations of France', the French
+Ambassador at Berlin informed the Secretary of State that 'they had done
+nothing more than the German Government had done, namely, recalled the
+officers on leave'.[100]
+
+The very next day the French Government had 'reliable information that
+the German troops are concentrated round Thionville and Metz ready for
+war',[101] and before July 30th German patrols twice penetrated into
+French territory.[102] With great forbearance the French Government
+withdrew its troops ten kilometres from the frontier; and, although
+German reservists had been recalled from abroad 'by tens of thousands',
+the French Government had not called out a single reservist. Well might
+the French Minister for Foreign Affairs say 'Germany has done it'.[103]
+
+Having thus invaded France before July 30th, the German Government
+presented an ultimatum (July 31) demanding what were the French
+intentions, and on August 1st the French Government replied that it
+would consult its own interests.[104]
+
+
+III
+
+_The Question of British Neutrality_.
+
+Even then, nothing had happened to bring this country into the quarrel.
+If Germany were making war primarily on Russia, and France were only
+involved as the auxiliary of Russia, Germany would have acted rapidly
+against Russia, and would have stood on the defensive against France;
+and England would not have been dragged into war.[105] The question of
+British neutrality first appears in the British White Book on July 25th,
+when Sir Edward Grey, in a note to Sir George Buchanan, said: 'if war
+does take place, the development of other issues may draw us into it,
+and I am therefore anxious to prevent it'.[106] Two days later he wrote
+again:--
+
+    'I have been told by the Russian Ambassador that in German and
+    Austrian circles impression prevails that in any event we would
+    stand aside ... This impression ought, as I have pointed out, to be
+    dispelled by the orders we have given to the First Fleet ... not to
+    disperse for manoeuvre leave. But ... my reference to it must not be
+    taken to mean that anything more than diplomatic action was
+    promised.'[107]
+
+On the 29th the question of our neutrality was seriously discussed at
+both the Courts of St. James and Berlin independently. Sir Edward Grey,
+in an interview with Prince Lichnowsky, told him 'he did not wish the
+Ambassador to be misled ... into thinking we should stand aside'.
+Developing this, Sir Edward Grey solemnly warned the German Ambassador
+that
+
+    'there was no question of our intervening if Germany was not
+    involved, or even if France was not involved, but if the issue did
+    become such that we thought British interests required us to
+    intervene, we must intervene at once, and the decision would have to
+    be very rapid.... But ... I did not wish to be open to any reproach
+    from him that the friendly tone of all our conversations had misled
+    him or his Government into supposing that we should not take
+    action.'[108]
+
+Before the news of this had reached Berlin the Imperial Chancellor had
+made his notorious 'bid for British neutrality' on July 29:--
+
+    'He said it was clear, so far as he was able to judge the main
+    principle which governed British policy, that Great Britain would
+    never stand by and allow France to be crushed in any conflict there
+    might be. That, however, was not the object at which Germany aimed.
+    Provided that neutrality of Great Britain were certain, every
+    assurance would be given to the British Government that the Imperial
+    Government aimed at no territorial acquisitions at the expense of
+    France, should they prove victorious in any war that might ensue.
+
+    'I questioned his Excellency about the French colonies, and he said
+    he was unable to give a similar undertaking in that respect. As
+    regards Holland ... so long as Germany's adversaries respected the
+    integrity and neutrality of the Netherlands, Germany was ready to
+    give His Majesty's Government an assurance that she would do
+    likewise. It depended on the action of France what operations
+    Germany might be forced to enter upon in Belgium, but when the war
+    was over, Belgian integrity would be respected if she had not sided
+    against Germany.'[109]
+
+This request was at once repudiated (July 30) by the British
+Government:--
+
+    'His Majesty's Government cannot for one moment entertain the
+    Chancellor's proposal that they should bind themselves to neutrality
+    on such terms.
+
+    'What he asks us in effect is to engage to stand by while French
+    colonies are taken and France is beaten so long as Germany does not
+    take French territory as distinct from the colonies.
+
+    'From the material point of view the proposal is unacceptable, for
+    France, without further territory in Europe being taken from her,
+    could be so crushed as to lose her position as a Great Power and
+    become subordinate to German policy.
+
+    'Altogether apart from that, it would be a disgrace for us to make
+    this bargain with Germany at the expense of France, a disgrace from
+    which the good name of this country would never recover.
+
+    'The Chancellor also in effect asks us to bargain away whatever
+    obligation or interest we have as regards the neutrality of Belgium.
+    We could not entertain that bargain either.[110]
+
+He continued by saying that Great Britain must keep her hands absolutely
+free and hinted at some scheme for preventing anti-German aggression by
+the Powers of the Triple _Entente_:--
+
+    'If the peace of Europe can be preserved, and the present crisis
+    safely passed, my own endeavour will be to promote some arrangement
+    to which Germany could be a party, by which she could be assured
+    that no aggressive or hostile policy would be pursued against her or
+    her allies by France, Russia, and ourselves, jointly or separately
+    ... The idea has hitherto been too Utopian to form the subject of
+    definite proposals, but if this crisis ... be safely passed, I am
+    hopeful that the relief and reaction which will follow will make
+    possible some more definite rapprochement between the Powers than
+    has been possible hitherto.'
+
+Thus two points were made clear: we were seriously concerned that France
+should not be crushed, and that the neutrality of Belgium should not be
+violated. It is interesting to note how this extremely serious warning
+was received by Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg:--'His Excellency was so taken
+up with the news of the Russian measures along the frontier ... that he
+received your communication without a comment.'[111]
+
+But the text of the reply was left with him, so that he could scarcely
+complain that no warning had been given to him.
+
+With the data at our disposal, it is not possible to make any deduction
+as to the effect which this warning had upon Berlin; but it may be
+remarked that at Rome that day, the Marquis di San Giuliano told Sir
+Rennell Rodd that he had
+
+    'good reason to believe that Germany was now disposed to give more
+    conciliatory advice to Austria, as she seemed convinced that we
+    should act with France and Russia, and was most anxious to avoid
+    issue with us.'[112]
+
+As this telegraphic dispatch was not received till the next day, it is
+not impossible that the Italian Minister gave this information to Sir
+Rennell Rodd late in the day, after having received news from Berlin
+sent under the impression made by Sir Edward Grey's warning.
+
+Such an impression, if it ever existed, must have been of short
+duration, for when the British Government demanded both of France and
+Germany whether they were 'prepared to engage to respect neutrality of
+Belgium so long as no other Power violates it',[113] the French gave an
+unequivocal promise the same day,[114] while the German answer is a
+striking contrast:--
+
+    'I have seen Secretary of State, who informs me that he must consult
+    the Emperor and the Chancellor before he can possibly answer. I
+    gathered from what he said that he thought any reply they might give
+    could not but disclose a certain amount of their plan of campaign in
+    the event of war ensuing, and he was therefore very doubtful whether
+    they would return any answer at all. His Excellency, nevertheless,
+    took note of your request.
+
+    'It appears from what he said that German Government considers that
+    certain hostile acts have already been committed in Belgium. As an
+    instance of this, he alleged that a consignment of corn for Germany
+    had been placed under an embargo already.'[115]
+
+It was now clear that a violation of Belgian neutrality was a
+contingency that would have to be faced, and Prince Lichnowsky was
+warned the next day that 'the neutrality of Belgium affected feeling in
+this country', and he was asked to obtain an assurance from the German
+Government similar to that given by France:--
+
+    'If there were a violation of the neutrality of Belgium by one
+    combatant, while the other respected it, it would be extremely
+    difficult to restrain public feeling in this country.'[116]
+
+The Ambassador then, on his own personal responsibility and without
+authority from his Government, tried to exact a promise that Great
+Britain would remain neutral 'if Germany gave a promise not to violate
+Belgian neutrality', but Sir Edward Grey was bound to refuse such an
+offer, seeing that it left out of account all question of an attack on
+France and her colonies, about which it had been stated already that
+there could be no bargaining. Even the guarantee of the integrity of
+France and her colonies was suggested, but again Sir Edward Grey was
+bound to refuse, for the reasons he gave to Sir Edward Goschen in
+rejecting what is now known as Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg's 'infamous
+proposal', namely, that France without actually losing territory might
+be so crushed as to lose her position as a Great Power, and become
+subordinate to German policy. And if there should be still any doubt
+about Sir Edward Grey's policy at this moment, we would refer to his
+statement in the House of Commons on August 27.[117] The important
+points are that the offers of August 1 were made on the sole
+responsibility of Prince Lichnowsky, and without authority from his
+Government; that the Cabinet on August 2 carefully discussed the
+conditions on which we might remain neutral, and that, on August 3, so
+far was the German Ambassador from guaranteeing the neutrality of
+Belgium that he actually had to ask Sir Edward Grey 'not to make the
+neutrality of Belgium one of our conditions'. Whatever Prince Lichnowsky
+may have said privately on August 1, the one fact certain is that two
+days later the German Government were making no concessions on that
+point; on the contrary they were asking us to withdraw from a position
+we had taken up on July 30, four days before.
+
+One more effort to preserve peace in Western Europe seems to have been
+made by Sir Edward Grey. On the telephone he asked Prince Lichnowsky
+whether, if France remained neutral, Germany would promise not to attack
+her. The impression seems to have prevailed in Berlin that this was an
+offer to guarantee French neutrality by the force of British arms, and
+the German Emperor in his telegram to the King gave evidence of the
+relief His Imperial Majesty felt at the prospect that the good relations
+between the two countries would be maintained. Unfortunately for such
+hopes, France had never been consulted in the matter, nor was there ever
+any idea of coercing France into neutrality, and even the original
+proposal had to be abandoned on consideration as unpractical.[118]
+
+Events now marched rapidly. While the Cabinet in London were still
+discussing whether a violation of Belgian neutrality would be an
+occasion for war, the news came of the violation of that of Luxemburg.
+Sir Edward Grey informed M. Cambon[119] that Lord Stanley and Lord
+Clarendon in 1867 had agreed to a 'collective guarantee' by which it was
+not intended that every Power was bound single-handed to fight any
+Government which violated Luxemburg. Although this gross disregard by
+the Germans of their solemn pledge did not entail the same consequences
+as the subsequent violation of Belgian neutrality, it is equally
+reprehensible from the point of view of international law, and the more
+cowardly in proportion as this state is weaker than Belgium. Against
+this intrusion Luxemburg protested, but, unlike Belgium, she did not
+appeal to the Powers.[120]
+
+Two days later, August 4th, the King of the Belgians appealed to the
+King for 'diplomatic intervention to safeguard the integrity of
+Belgium'.[121] The German Government had issued an ultimatum to the
+Belgian, asking for
+
+    'a free passage through Belgian territory, and promising to maintain
+    the independence and integrity of the kingdom and its possessions at
+    the conclusion of peace, threatening in case of refusal to treat
+    Belgium as an enemy. An answer was requested within twelve
+    hours'.[122]
+
+Sir Edward Grey instructed the British Ambassador to protest against
+this violation of a treaty to which Germany in common with ourselves was
+a party, and to ask an assurance that the demand made upon Belgium would
+not be proceeded with. At the same time the Belgian Government was told
+to resist German aggression by all the means in its power, as Great
+Britain was prepared to join France and Russia to maintain the
+independence and integrity of Belgium.[123] On receipt of the protest of
+Sir Edward Grey, it would seem that Herr von Jagow made one more
+desperate effort to bid for British neutrality: 'Germany will, under no
+pretence whatever, annex Belgian territory': to pass through Belgium was
+necessary because the 'German army could not be exposed to French attack
+across Belgium, which was planned according to absolutely unimpeachable
+information'. It was for Germany 'a question of life and death to
+prevent French advance'.[124] But matters had gone too far: that day
+(August 4) the Germans violated Belgian territory at Gemmenich, and
+thereupon the British demand to Germany to respect Belgian neutrality,
+issued earlier in the day, was converted into an ultimatum:--
+
+    'We hear that Germany has addressed note to Belgian Minister for
+    Foreign Affairs stating that German Government will be compelled to
+    carry out, if necessary by force of arms, the measures considered
+    indispensable.
+
+    'We are also informed that Belgian territory has been violated at
+    Gemmenich.
+
+    'In these circumstances, and in view of the fact that Germany
+    declined to give the same assurance respecting Belgium as France
+    gave last week in reply to our request made simultaneously at Berlin
+    and Paris, we must repeat that request, and ask that a satisfactory
+    reply to it and to my telegram of this morning be received here by
+    12 o'clock to-night. If not, you are instructed to ask for your
+    passports, and to say that His Majesty's Government feel bound to
+    take all steps in their power to uphold the neutrality of Belgium
+    and the observance of a treaty to which Germany is as much a party
+    as ourselves.'[125]
+
+The effect at Berlin was remarkable. Every sign was given of
+disappointment and resentment at such a step being taken, and the
+'harangue' of the Chancellor to Sir Edward Goschen, and his astonishment
+at the value laid by Great Britain upon the 'scrap of paper' of 1839
+would seem, when coupled with Herr von Jagow's desperate bid for
+neutrality at the last moment, to show that the German Government had
+counted on the neutrality of this country and had been deeply
+disappointed. If these outbursts and attempts at the eleventh hour to
+bargain for our neutrality were genuine efforts to keep the peace
+between Great Britain and Germany, it is our belief that their origin
+must be found in the highest authority in the German Empire, whom we
+believe, in spite of petty signs of spitefulness exhibited since the war
+broke out, to have been sincerely and honestly working in favour of
+European peace, against obstacles little dreamt of by our countrymen.
+But certain signs are not wanting that, in the lower ranks of the German
+hierarchy, war with this country had been decided on, and that Sir
+Edward Grey was not far wrong when he wrote to Sir Francis Bertie on
+July 31, 'I believe it to be quite untrue that our attitude has been a
+decisive factor in situation. German Government do not expect our
+neutrality.'[126] On what other grounds than that orders had been sent
+out from Berlin can the fact be explained that the German Customs
+authorities, three days before the declaration of war, began detaining
+British ships,[127] and compulsorily unloading cargoes of sugar from
+British vessels? In the former case, indeed, the ships were ordered to
+be released; in the latter case, of which the complaint was made
+twenty-four hours later, the reply to inquiries was the ominous
+statement that 'no information was to be had'.[128]
+
+This, however, is a digression from the main question. History will
+doubtless attribute the outbreak of war between ourselves and Germany to
+the development of the Belgian question, and, we are confident, will
+judge that had it not been for the gratuitous attack made on a neutral
+country by Germany, war with Great Britain would not have ensued on
+August 4, 1914. The excuses put forward by the German Government for
+this wanton outrage on international agreements are instructive. In
+conversation with Sir Edward Goschen, neither Herr von Jagow nor the
+Chancellor urged that the French had violated the neutrality; the
+argument is purely and simply that the route by way of the Vosges is
+difficult, time is everything, and it is a matter of life and death to
+Germany to crush France as quickly as possible, in order that she may be
+able to meet the Russians before they reach the German frontier. This
+excuse does not seem to have been very satisfactory even to those who
+put it forward, though it was indubitably the real reason; so vice paid
+homage to virtue, and Herr von Jagow urged to Prince Lichnowsky that he
+had 'absolutely unimpeachable information' that the German army was
+exposed to French attack across Belgium. On the other hand, the
+Chancellor, as late as August 4th, seems to have known nothing of any
+such action by France; at any rate he made no mention of it in his
+speech to the Reichstag:--
+
+    'We are now in a state of necessity, and necessity knows no law. Our
+    troops have occupied Luxemburg and perhaps are already on Belgian
+    soil. Gentlemen, that is contrary to the dictates of international
+    law. It is true that the French Government has declared at Brussels
+    that France is willing to respect the neutrality of Belgium, as long
+    as her opponent respects it. We knew, however, that France stood
+    ready for invasion. France could wait but we could not wait. A
+    French movement upon our flank upon the Lower Rhine might have been
+    disastrous. So we were compelled to override the just protest of the
+    Luxemburg and Belgian Governments. The wrong--I speak openly--that
+    we are committing we will endeavour to make good as soon as our
+    military goal has been reached. Anybody who is threatened as we are
+    threatened, and is fighting for his highest possessions, can only
+    have one thought--how he is to hack his way through.'[129]
+
+In this double-faced position of the German Government, we have an
+example either of unsurpassed wickedness or of insurpassable folly. The
+violation of Belgium must have been designed either in order to bring us
+into the quarrel, or on the supposition that, in spite of treaties and
+warnings, we should yet remain neutral. Yet the foolishness of such a
+calculation is as nothing to that which prompted the excuse that Germany
+had to violate Belgian neutrality because the French were going to do
+so, or had done so. In such a case undoubtedly the wisest course for
+Germany would have been to allow the French to earn the reward of their
+own folly and be attacked not only by Belgium but also by Great Britain,
+to whom not five days before they had solemnly promised to observe the
+neutrality, and whom such a gross violation of the French word must
+indubitably have kept neutral, if it did not throw her on to the side of
+Germany. In regard to Belgium the Germans have indeed put forward the
+plea that the French had already violated its neutrality before war was
+declared. This plea has been like a snowball. It began with the
+ineffective accusation that the French were at Givet, a town in French
+territory, and that this constituted an attack on Germany, though how
+the presence of the French in a town of their own could be called a
+violation of their neighbour's neutrality it is difficult to see. From
+that it has gradually grown into a more formidable story of the French
+supplying a garrison to Liege. There can be little doubt that all these
+attempts by Herr von Jagow to claim that the French violated Belgian
+neutrality are another illustration of Swift's dictum to the effect that
+'as universal a practice as lying is, and as easy a one as it seems', it
+is astonishing that it has been brought to so little perfection, 'even
+by those who are most celebrated in that faculty'.[130]
+
+
+IV
+
+_England and Servia_.
+
+We have seen what attitude was taken by Germany in the crisis which
+followed upon the Serajevo murders and more definitely upon the
+presentation of the Austrian note. It is equally important, and to
+English readers at least more interesting, to realize what attitude was
+taken by England. Sir Edward Grey throughout maintained the position,
+which he was so justly praised for adopting in 1912, that England had no
+direct interest in Balkan disputes, but that it was her bounden duty to
+prevent a European conflagration. He quickly saw, what Germany would not
+see, that Russia was so much interested in Servia, for both political
+and religious reasons, that any attempt by the Austro-Hungarian
+Government to coerce Servia, to interfere with her territorial integrity
+or independence as a sovereign state, would inevitably rouse Russia to
+military action. For Russia had greater interests in the security of
+Servia than Great Britain had in the security of Belgium. In each case
+the Great Power was bound by honour and self-interest alike to interfere
+to protect the smaller Power, but Russia was also bound to Servia by
+racial and religious bonds. This being so, Sir Edward Grey set himself,
+not as the German White Book says[131] to localize the conflict, but to
+prevent if possible a conflict between Austria-Hungary and Servia which
+would inevitably involve Russia and probably other European powers. He
+stated his policy with the greatest clearness in the House of Commons on
+July 27th, but he had already acted on the lines of the policy which he
+then explained. On July 24th he told Count Mensdorff that he would
+concern himself
+
+    'with the matter simply and solely from the point of view of the
+    peace of Europe. The merits of the dispute between Austria and
+    Servia were not the concern of His Majesty's Government[132].'
+
+In similar language, but more fully, on the same day he told the German
+Ambassador:--
+
+    'If the presentation of this ultimatum to Servia did not lead to
+    trouble between Austria and Russia, we need not concern ourselves
+    about it; but if Russia took the view of the Austrian ultimatum
+    which it seemed to me that any Power interested in Servia would
+    take, I should be quite powerless, in face of the terms of the
+    ultimatum, to exercise any moderating influence[133].'
+
+Sir Edward Grey at once urged that the four Powers, Germany, Italy,
+France, and Great Britain, should act together in the interests of peace
+at the courts of St. Petersburg and Vienna. And he went further and
+tried to induce Servia to 'express concern and regret' and to 'give
+Austria the fullest satisfaction', 'if it is proved that Servian
+officials, however subordinate, were accomplices in the murders at
+Serajevo[134].' Further than that no British Foreign Minister could go;
+Sir George Buchanan correctly explained the situation to M. Sazonof when
+he laid stress on the need of the sanction of British public
+opinion[135]. Sir Edward Grey re-echoed this when he wrote:--
+
+    'I do not consider that public opinion here would or ought to
+    sanction our going to war over a Servian quarrel. If, however, war
+    does take place, the development of other issues may draw us into
+    it, and I am therefore anxious to prevent it.'[136]
+
+However, matters were moving rapidly: the Servian reply[137] was
+presented on July 25; it was considered unsatisfactory by the
+Austro-Hungarian Government, and the Minister, with the Legation-staff,
+withdrew from Belgrade. Next day Sir Edward Grey proposed that a
+conference of Germany, Italy, France, and Great Britain should meet in
+London immediately 'for the purpose of discovering an issue which would
+prevent complications', and 'that all active military operations should
+be suspended pending results of conference'.[138] This proposal failed,
+as has been explained in earlier pages (pp. 71-3), and on July 28th
+Austria-Hungary declared war on Servia. Sir Edward Grey remained firm to
+his original attitude of non-intervention, and told M. Cambon that 'the
+dispute between Austria and Servia was not one in which we felt called
+to take a hand'.[139] And on the same day he declined to discuss with
+Count Mensdorff 'the merits of the question between Austria and
+Servia'.[140]
+
+No one can doubt that Sir Edward Grey's attitude was diplomatically
+correct and consistent. It was also inspired by a genuine desire for
+peace, and stands out in sharp contrast with the 'equivocal and
+double-faced' policy of Germany, and with the obstinacy of Austria in
+refusing to permit the Powers to mediate; for it was with truth that M.
+Sazonof remarked that
+
+    'a refusal to prolong the term of the ultimatum would render
+    nugatory the proposals made by the Austro-Hungarian Government to
+    the Powers, and would be in contradiction to the very basis of
+    international relations.'[141]
+
+
+V
+
+_Great Britain declines 'Solidarity' with Russia and France_.
+
+There is however another question which involves the whole foreign
+policy of Great Britain. Could Sir Edward Grey have prevented the war by
+boldly declaring at once that England would support Russia and France,
+if necessary by armed force? It was a policy urged on him from several
+quarters, and it is possible that such action might have been
+successful. It is to Sir Edward Grey's credit that he quietly but firmly
+refused to take so hazardous and unprecedented a step. Let us examine
+these proposals briefly. As early as July 24th M. Sazonof 'hoped that
+His Majesty's Government would not fail to proclaim their solidarity
+with Russia and France.[142]' The French Ambassador at St. Petersburg
+joined in the request, and M. Sazonof pointed out that
+
+    'we would sooner or later be dragged into war if it did break out;
+    we should have rendered war more likely if we did not from the
+    outset make common cause with his country and with France[143].'
+
+On July 30th the President of the French Republic expressed his
+conviction that
+
+    'peace between the Powers is in the hands of Great Britain. If His
+    Majesty's Government announced that England would come to the aid of
+    France in the event of a conflict between France and Germany, as a
+    result of the present differences between Austria and Servia, there
+    would be no war, for Germany would at once modify her
+    attitude[144].'
+
+Even more important was the opinion of the Italian Minister for Foreign
+Affairs, whose country was a member of the Triple Alliance:--
+
+    'As Germany was really anxious for good relations with ourselves, if
+    she believed that Great Britain would act with Russia and France, he
+    thought it would have a great effect.'[145]
+
+Such opinions must, and do, carry great weight, but Sir Edward Grey and
+the British Ambassadors were equally firm in withstanding them. Sir
+George Buchanan at once told M. Sazonof that he
+
+    'saw no reason to expect any declaration of solidarity from His
+    Majesty's Government that would entail an unconditional engagement
+    on their part to support Russia and France by force of arms'.[146]
+
+On July 27th he met the proposal more directly by pointing out that, so
+far from such a policy conducing to the maintenance of peace, it would
+merely offend the pride of the Germans and stiffen them in their present
+attitude.[147] Two days later Sir Edward Grey pointed out to M. Cambon
+that
+
+    'even if the question became one between Austria and Russia, we
+    should not feel called upon to take a hand in it. It would then be a
+    question of the supremacy of Teuton or Slav--a struggle for
+    supremacy in the Balkans; and our idea had always been to avoid
+    being drawn into a war over a Balkan question'.[148]
+
+That is one answer to the proposal, an answer based on history and on
+Britain's foreign policy in past years. Sir Edward Grey had another
+answer. It was to the effect that Germany could not, and ought to have
+known she could not, rely on our neutrality. For when the Russian
+Ambassador told him that an impression prevailed in German and Austrian
+circles that in any event England would stand aside, he pointed out that
+
+    'this impression ought to be dispelled by the orders we have given
+    to the First Fleet, which is concentrated, as it happens, at
+    Portland, not to disperse for manoeuvre leave'.[149]
+
+The situation continued to develop unfavourably for the cause of peace
+owing to the Austrian declaration of war on Servia, and the consequent
+mobilizations in Russia, Germany, and France. On July 31st Sir Edward
+Grey said:--
+
+    'I believe it to be quite untrue that our attitude has been a
+    decisive factor in situation. German Government do not expect our
+    neutrality.'[150]
+
+It is not quite clear that Sir Edward Grey's belief was justified.
+England's attitude may have been an important factor in the situation,
+but still in our opinion Sir Edward Grey was not only right in refusing
+to commit England to a new Continental policy, but could not, with due
+observance of constitutional usages, have taken any other course. Again,
+it is doubtful whether the German Government did or did not rely on our
+neutrality. The German Chancellor and the German Secretary for Foreign
+Affairs later affected great surprise at our action. Germany, however,
+as we have shown above (p. 82), had been plainly warned by Sir Edward
+Grey on July 29th[151] that she could not rely on our remaining neutral
+under all circumstances.
+
+Whether Sir Edward Grey was right or wrong in his estimate of Germany's
+prudence is a small matter; what is important is that his action was
+throughout perfectly straightforward and consistent. And unquestionably
+he had a very difficult part to play. The near East was like a blazing
+rick surrounded by farm buildings; Germany was, if not stirring up the
+conflagration, certainly not attempting to pour water on the flames,
+while Austria, possibly--and even probably[152] with Germany's
+knowledge, would allow no one to make the attempt.
+
+It would have aided the Austrian cause more effectively in Europe and
+elsewhere, if the Government had communicated[153] 'the _dossier_
+elucidating the Servian intrigues and the connexion between these
+intrigues and the murder of 28th June', which it said it held at the
+disposal of the British Government.[154] For even Count Mensdorff
+'admitted that, on paper, the Servian reply might seem to be
+satisfactory'.[155]
+
+To judge whether the Servian reply was satisfactory, it was, and is,
+necessary to examine the evidence on which the Austro-Hungarian
+Government based the accusations formulated in its note of July 23rd.
+But even assuming that the Austrian charges were true, as the German
+White Book says they are,[156] it is only a stronger reason for allowing
+the Powers to examine this evidence; and it does not explain the
+persistent refusal,[157] until July 31st,[158] to permit any
+negotiations on the basis of the Servian reply.
+
+Such being the situation, it is very difficult to see what more Sir
+Edward Grey could have done to prevent the outbreak of war between
+Austria-Hungary and Servia, which did inevitably, as he foresaw from the
+first, drag in other nations. He urged Servia to moderation and even to
+submission; he tried to induce the four Powers to mediate jointly at St.
+Petersburg and Vienna; he proposed a conference of the four Powers to
+prevent further complications; he did everything in his power to
+restrain Russia from immediate armed support of Servia; he declined to
+join Russia and France in eventual military action; and even up to the
+violation of the neutrality of Belgium he still strove to avert the
+horrors of war from Europe.
+
+
+VI
+
+_Italy's comments on the situation_.
+
+We have already shown (Chap. II) how Italy became a member of the Triple
+Alliance, and how, in spite of its apparent frailty and of the somewhat
+divergent aims of its members, that alliance has endured for thirty-two
+years. It remains to consider what policy Italy adopted in the critical
+situation created by the presentation of the Austro-Hungarian note to
+Servia, and to appreciate the significance of that policy. It is
+supremely significant that Italy, though a member of the Triple
+Alliance, was not consulted about the terms of the Austrian note to
+Servia; that she worked persistently side by side with England in
+endeavouring to prevent an outbreak of war, and, when that failed, to
+induce the states actually at war, or on the brink of war, to suspend
+all military operations in order to give diplomatic intervention an
+opportunity; and it is equally significant that, when the great war
+broke out, Italy remained neutral, in spite of the pressure from her
+allies and the tempting bait of a share of the spoil, which, it is said,
+is even now being offered to her.[159] This is but a bald description of
+Italy's policy, but it can be substantiated in detail from official
+documents. As early as July 25th the Italian Ambassador in a
+conversation with Sir Edward Grey 'made no secret of the fact that Italy
+was desirous to see war avoided',[160] and he cordially approved the
+idea of mediation by the four Powers. Two days later Italy again
+approved the proposed conference of four to be held immediately in
+London. The Italian Foreign Minister promised to recommend most strongly
+to the German Government the idea of asking Russia, Austria, and Servia
+to suspend military operations pending the result of the conference, and
+went even further in undertaking to ask what procedure Germany thought
+most likely to be successful at Vienna.[161] He thought it very doubtful
+whether Germany would consent to ask Austria to suspend military
+operations, but made a further suggestion that
+
+    'Servia may be induced to accept note in its entirety on the advice
+    of the four Powers invited to the conference, and this would enable
+    her to say that she had yielded to Europe and not to Austria-Hungary
+    alone'.[162]
+
+Next day the Marquis di San Giuliano called attention to a point in
+Servia's reply to Austria which might form a starting-point for
+mediation.[163] On July 29th he tried to get over Germany's objection to
+the idea of a 'Conference' by suggesting adherence to the idea of an
+exchange of views in London.[164] Next day he added to this the
+practical suggestion that
+
+    'Germany might invite Austria to state exactly the terms which she
+    would demand from Servia, and give a guarantee that she would
+    neither deprive her of independence, nor annex territory.... We
+    might, on the other hand, ascertain from Russia what she would
+    accept, and, once we knew the standpoints of these two countries,
+    discussions could be commenced at once.'[165]
+
+Moreover the Italian Ambassador at Vienna, in the hope of pacifying
+Russia, made the useful suggestion that Austria should
+
+    'convert into a binding engagement to Europe the declaration which
+    has been made at St. Petersburg to the effect that she desires
+    neither to destroy the independence of Servia, nor to acquire
+    Servian territory'.[166]
+
+All efforts to preserve peace proved futile; Germany delivered her
+ultimatum to France and to Russia. Then arose the question, what was
+Italy to do? The answer to this was given by the Italian Foreign
+Minister:--
+
+    'The war undertaken by Austria, and the consequences which might
+    result, had, in the words of the German Ambassador himself, an
+    aggressive object. Both were therefore in conflict with the purely
+    defensive character of the Triple Alliance; in such circumstances
+    Italy would remain neutral.'[167]
+
+The German White Book says 'Russia began the war on us'[168] and 'France
+opened hostilities'[169]; if these statements were true, Italy would
+have been obliged, if she were to remain faithful to her engagements, to
+take part in the war side by side with her colleagues of the Triple
+Alliance. Impartial readers can draw their own conclusions.
+
+
+NOTE
+
+_Austro-Hungarian note to Servia, and Servia's reply_.
+
+On July 23rd the Austro-Hungarian Government presented an ultimatum to
+Servia, demanding unconditional acceptance within 48 hours, an ultimatum
+which the _Temps_ next day described as 'unprecedented in its arrogance
+and in the extravagance of its demands'. Of it Sir Edward Grey said:--
+
+    'I had never before seen one State address to another independent
+    State a document of so formidable a character. Demand No. 5 would be
+    hardly consistent with the maintenance of Servia's independent
+    sovereignty, if it were to mean, as it seemed that it might, that
+    Austria-Hungary was to be invested with a right to appoint officials
+    who would have authority within the frontiers of Servia.'[170]
+
+It may be true, as the Austrian Ambassador explained,[171] that the
+Austro-Hungarian Government did not intend this step to be regarded as
+an ultimatum, but as a _demarche_ with a time-limit.
+
+In this extraordinary document[172] the Austro-Hungarian Government
+demanded:--
+
+A. That Servia should publish on the front page of its 'Official
+Gazette', and in the 'Official Bulletin' of the Army, and should
+communicate to the Army as the order of the day a declaration
+
+(1) condemning Serb propaganda against Austria-Hungary;
+
+(2) regretting that Servian officers and functionaries participated in
+the propaganda;
+
+(3) promising to proceed with the utmost rigour against persons who may
+be guilty of such machinations.
+
+B. That Servia should undertake
+
+(1) to suppress any publication inciting to hatred and contempt of
+Austria-Hungary;
+
+(2) to dissolve the society styled Narodna Odbrana and similar societies
+and to confiscate their means of propaganda;
+
+(3) to eliminate from public instruction in Servia all teachers and all
+methods of instruction responsible for fomenting opinion against
+Austria-Hungary;
+
+(4) to remove from the military service and from the administration all
+officers and functionaries guilty of such propaganda, whose names and
+deeds the Austro-Hungarian Government reserved to itself the right of
+communicating;
+
+(5) to accept the collaboration in Servia of representatives of
+Austria-Hungary in the suppression of the subversive anti-Austrian
+movement;
+
+(6) to take judicial proceedings against accessories to the Serajevo
+plot, with the co-operation of Austro-Hungarian delegates;
+
+(7) to proceed immediately to the arrest of Major Voija Tankositch and
+of Milan Ciganovitch, a Servian State employe, who have been compromised
+by the results of the inquiry at Serajevo;
+
+(8) to stop co-operation of Servian authorities in illicit traffic in
+arms and explosives, and to dismiss and punish those officials who
+helped the perpetrators of the Serajevo crime;
+
+(9) to explain the unjustifiable utterances of high Servian officials,
+at home and abroad, after the Serajevo crime.
+
+On July 25th the Servian reply[173] was presented to the
+Austro-Hungarian Government. Even to a reader with Austrian sympathies
+this reply seems to go a long way towards meeting the demands. The
+Servian Government agreed
+
+A. that Servia should, as demanded, publish a declaration
+
+(1) condemning all propaganda which may be directed against
+Austria-Hungary;
+
+(2) regretting that, according to the communication from the Imperial
+and Royal Government, Servian officers and officials participated in the
+propaganda;
+
+(3) promising to proceed with the utmost rigour against all persons who
+are guilty of such acts.
+
+B. That Servia would undertake
+
+(1) to introduce a provision into the press law providing for the most
+severe punishment of incitement to hatred and contempt of
+Austria-Hungary and to introduce an amendment to the Constitution
+providing for the confiscation of such publications;
+
+(2) to dissolve the Narodna Odbrana and similar societies;
+
+(3) to remove at once from their public educational establishments all
+that serves or could serve to foment propaganda, whenever the
+Austro-Hungarian Government furnish them with facts and proofs of this
+propaganda;
+
+(4) to remove from military service all such persons as the judicial
+inquiry may have proved to be guilty of acts directed against the
+territorial integrity of Austria-Hungary;
+
+(5) though they do not clearly grasp the meaning or the scope of the
+demand, to accept the collaboration of Austro-Hungarian officials so far
+as is consistent with the principle of international law, with criminal
+procedure and with good neighbourly relations;
+
+(6) to take judicial proceedings against accessories to the Serajevo
+plot; but they cannot admit the co-operation of Austro-Hungarian
+officials, as it would be a violation of the Constitution and of the law
+of criminal procedure;
+
+(7) On this they remark that Major Tankositch was arrested as soon as
+the note was presented, and that it has not been possible to arrest
+Ciganovitch, who is an Austro-Hungarian subject, but had been employed
+(on probation) by the directorate of railways;
+
+(8) to reinforce and extend the measures for preventing illicit traffic
+of arms and explosives across the frontier;
+
+(9) to give explanations of the remarks made by Servian officials, as
+soon as the Austro-Hungarian Government have communicated the passages
+and as soon as they have shown that the remarks were actually made by
+the said officials.
+
+The Austro-Hungarian Government regarded this reply as unsatisfactory
+and inadequate; they withdrew their Minister from Belgrade the same
+evening, and on July 28th declared war on Servia. Meanwhile they
+published a long official explanation[174] of the grounds on which the
+Servian reply was considered inadequate; in it they criticized and found
+unsatisfactory every single article of the reply, except that to demand
+No. 8. It is not worth while to analyze the whole of this; one sample
+may be sufficient. Sir Edward Grey commented on demand No. 5 and pointed
+out[175] that it
+
+    'would be hardly consistent with the maintenance of Servia's
+    independent sovereignty, if it were to mean, as it seemed that it
+    might, that Austria-Hungary was to be invested with a right to
+    appoint officials who would have authority within the frontiers of
+    Servia.'
+
+Obviously he was in doubt about the meaning and scope of this demand,
+and the next was equally vague. The Servian reply to these two demands
+was necessarily guarded: yet the Austro-Hungarian Government treated
+this as deliberate misrepresentation:--
+
+    'The international law, as well as the criminal law, has nothing to
+    do with this question; it is purely a matter of the nature of state
+    police which is to be solved by way of a special agreement. The
+    reserved attitude of Servia is therefore incomprehensible, and on
+    account of its vague general form it would lead to unbridgeable
+    difficulties.
+
+    ...
+
+    'If the Servian Government misunderstands us here, this is done
+    deliberately, for it must be familiar with the difference between
+    "enquete judiciaire" and simple police researches. As it desired to
+    escape from every control of the investigation which would yield, if
+    correctly carried out, highly undesirable results for it, and as it
+    possesses no means to refuse in a plausible manner the co-operation
+    of our officials (precedents for such police intervention exist in
+    great number), it tries to justify its refusal by showing up our
+    demands as impossible.'[176]
+
+It would have been fairer to Servia to assume that there had been a
+genuine misunderstanding, and that the explanation here given by Austria
+might prove satisfactory to Servia, as the Italian Minister for Foreign
+Affairs suggested.[177] The persistent refusal of Austria-Hungary to
+permit any discussion on the basis of the Servian reply goes far to
+justify Sir Maurice de Bunsen's impression
+
+    'that the Austro-Hungarian note was so drawn up as to make war
+    inevitable, that their Government are fully resolved to have war
+    with Servia, that they consider their position as a Great Power to
+    be at stake, and that until punishment has been administered to
+    Servia it is unlikely that they will listen to proposals of
+    mediation'.[178]
+
+Notes:
+
+[Footnote 57: _Correspondence respecting the European Crisis_, No. 2.
+Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey, July 22, 1914.]
+
+[Footnote 58: German White Book, p. 4.]
+
+[Footnote 59: _Correspondence_, No. 10. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie,
+July 24.]
+
+[Footnote 60: _Correspondence_, No. 18. Sir H. Rumbold to Sir E. Grey,
+July 25.]
+
+[Footnote 61: Ibid. No. 32. Sir M. de Bunsen to Sir E. Grey, July 26.
+See also German White Book, p. 5.]
+
+[Footnote 62: Ibid. No. 54. M. Sazonof to Count Benckendorff, July
+15/28, 1914 (communicated by Count Benckendorff, July 28).]
+
+[Footnote 63: _Correspondence_, No. 139. Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey,
+August 1.]
+
+[Footnote 64: _Ibid_. No. 141. Sir M. de Bunsen to Sir E. Grey, August
+1.]
+
+[Footnote 65: _Ibid_. No. 71. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey, July 28.]
+
+[Footnote 66: _Correspondence_, No. 94. Sir M. de Bunsen to Sir E. Grey,
+July 29.]
+
+[Footnote 67: German White Book, p. 4 (see _infra_ Appendix I).]
+
+[Footnote 68: _Ibid_. No. 36. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie, Sir H.
+Rumbold, and Sir R. Rodd, July 26.]
+
+[Footnote 69: _Correspondence_, No. 43. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey,
+July 27.]
+
+[Footnote 70: _Ibid_. No. 60. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey, July 28.]
+
+[Footnote 71: _Ibid_. No. 84. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen, July 29.]
+
+[Footnote 72: p. 8 and Exhibit 12 (see _infra_ Appendix I).]
+
+[Footnote 73: _Correspondence_, No. 11. Sir E. Grey to Sir II. Rumbold,
+July 24.]
+
+[Footnote 74: _Correspondence_, No. 46. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen,
+July 27.]
+
+[Footnote 75: Ibid. No. 80. Sir R. Rodd to Sir E. Grey, July 29.]
+
+[Footnote 76: Ibid. No. 43. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey, July 27.]
+
+[Footnote 77: Although the German White Book attempts to make out that
+Russia mobilized on July 26th, it produces no evidence more satisfactory
+than the information of the German Imperial attache in Russia, whose
+account of the Russian military preparations supports only in part the
+allegations made at Berlin. See German White Book, Exhibits 6 and 7;
+also _Correspondence_, No. 78, Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey, July 29.
+For the Austrian decree of general mobilization, see the Russian Orange
+Book No. 47 (_infra_ in Appendix VI).]
+
+[Footnote 78: _Correspondence_, No. 43. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey,
+July 27.]
+
+[Footnote 79: _Ibid_. No. 76. The same to the same, July 29.]
+
+[Footnote 80: _Correspondence_, No. 78. Sir George Buchanan to Sir E.
+Grey, July 29, 1914.]
+
+[Footnote 81: German White Book, p. 38, and Exhibit No. 7, July 26.]
+
+[Footnote 82: _Correspondence_, No. 71. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey,
+July 28. See also quotation in _Times_ of July 29, p. 8, col. 2, from
+the _Militaer-Wochenblatt_: 'The fighting power of Russia is usually
+over-estimated, and numbers are far less decisive than _moral_, the
+higher command, armaments.... All military preparations for war, of
+whatever sort, have been taken with that attention to detail and that
+order which marks Germany. It can therefore be said, without
+exaggeration, that Germany can face the advent of grave events with
+complete calm, trusting to God and her own might.']
+
+[Footnote 83: _Correspondence_, No. 80. Sir R. Rodd to Sir E. Grey, July
+29.]
+
+[Footnote 84: _Ibid_. No. 97. Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey, July 30.
+Cf. Russian Orange Book, Nos. 61, 62 (_infra_ in Appendix VI).]
+
+[Footnote 85: _Ibid_.]
+
+[Footnote 86: _Correspondence_, No. 97. Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey,
+July 30.]
+
+[Footnote 87: _Ibid_. No. 113. Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey, July 31.]
+
+[Footnote 88: _Ibid_.]
+
+[Footnote 89: _Ibid_. No. 112. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey, July 31.]
+
+[Footnote 90: _Ibid_. No. 113, _ut sup_. On August 1 _The Times_
+published a semi-official telegram from Berlin, dated Eydtkuhnen, July
+31, that 'the second and third Russian cavalry divisions are on the
+frontier between Wirballen, Augustof, and Allenstein'.]
+
+[Footnote 91: _Ibid_. No. 111. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen, July 31.]
+
+[Footnote 92: _Ibid_. No. 121. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey, July 31.]
+
+[Footnote 93: See German White Book, pp. 12 and 13, and Exhibits 20, 21,
+22, 23, 23a (see _infra_ Appendix I).]
+
+[Footnote 94: _Correspondence_, No. 121. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey,
+July 31.]
+
+[Footnote 95: _Ibid_. Nos. 131, 133, 135.]
+
+[Footnote 96: Russian Orange Book, No. 58 (_infra_ Appendix VI).]
+
+[Footnote 97: _Ibid_. No. 133. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen, August 1,
+encloses a telegram of July 31, to the effect that 'The Austro-Hungarian
+Ambassador declared the readiness of his Government to discuss the
+substance of the Austrian ultimatum to Servia. M. Sazonof replied by
+expressing his satisfaction, and said it was desirable that the
+discussions should take place in London with the participation of the
+Great Powers.']
+
+[Footnote 98: German White Book, p. 8.]
+
+[Footnote 99: _Ibid_. p. 9, Exhibit No. 17.]
+
+[Footnote 100: _Correspondence_, No. 76. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey,
+July 29: 'His Excellency denied German Government had done this.
+Nevertheless it is true.']
+
+[Footnote 101: Ibid. No. 99. Sir F. Bertie to Sir E. Grey, July 30.]
+
+[Footnote 102: _Correspondence_. Enclosure 3 in No. 105. French Minister
+for Foreign Affairs to M. Cambon.]
+
+[Footnote 103: _Ibid_.]
+
+[Footnote 104: German White Book, p. 48 (see _infra_, Appendix I).]
+
+[Footnote 105: _Correspondence_, No. 138. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey,
+Aug. 1.]
+
+[Footnote 106: _Correspondence_, No. 24. Sir E. Grey to Sir G. Buchanan,
+July 25.]
+
+[Footnote 107: _Correspondence_, No. 47. Sir E. Grey to Sir G. Buchanan,
+July 27.]
+
+[Footnote 108: _Ibid_. No. 89. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen, July 29.]
+
+[Footnote 109: _Correspondence_, No. 85. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey,
+July 29 (received July 29).]
+
+[Footnote 110: _Ibid_. No. 101. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen, July 30.]
+
+[Footnote 111: _Correspondence_, No. 109. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey,
+July 31.]
+
+[Footnote 112: _Ibid_. No. 106. Sir R. Rodd to Sir E. Grey, July 30.]
+
+[Footnote 113: _Correspondence_, No. 114. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie
+and Sir E. Goschen, July 31.]
+
+[Footnote 114: _Ibid_. No. 125. Sir F. Bertie to Sir E. Grey, July 31.]
+
+[Footnote 115: _Ibid_. No. 122. Sir E. Goschen to Sir E. Grey, July 31.
+It may be observed that by the Hague Convention of 1907, Belgium was
+bound to impose this embargo after the ultimatum of Germany to Russia
+(Art. 2).]
+
+[Footnote 116: _Correspondence_, No. 123. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen,
+August 1.]
+
+[Footnote 117: _The Times_, August 28, 1914, p. 9, cols. 5 and 6.]
+
+[Footnote 118: See _The Times_, August 27, 1914. The Imperial Chancellor
+telegraphed to Prince Lichnowsky: 'Germany is ready to take up the
+English proposal if England guarantees with her forces the absolute
+neutrality of France in a Russo-German conflict.... We promise that the
+French frontier shall not be passed by our troops before 7 p.m. on
+Monday, August 3, if England's consent is given in the meantime.']
+
+[Footnote 119: _Correspondence_, No. 148. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie,
+August 2.]
+
+[Footnote 120: _Correspondence_, No. 147. Minister of State, Luxemburg,
+to Sir E. Grey, August 2.]
+
+[Footnote 121: _Ibid_. No. 153. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen, August
+4.]
+
+[Footnote 122: _Ibid_.]
+
+[Footnote 123: _Ibid_. No. 155. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Villiers, August
+4.]
+
+[Footnote 124: _Correspondence_, No. 157. German Foreign Secretary to
+Prince Lichnowsky, August 4.]
+
+[Footnote 125: _Ibid_. No. 159. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen, August
+4.]
+
+[Footnote 126: _Correspondence_, No. 116, July 31.]
+
+[Footnote 127: _Ibid_. Nos. 130, 143, 145.]
+
+[Footnote 128: _Ibid_. Nos. 149, 150, August 2 and 3.]
+
+[Footnote 129: _The Times_, August 11, p. 5, col. 1.]
+
+[Footnote 130: _Thoughts on Various Subjects, Moral and Diverting_
+(October, 1706).]
+
+[Footnote 131: p. 6.]
+
+[Footnote 132: _Correspondence_, No. 5. Sir E. Grey to Sir M. de Bunsen,
+July 24.]
+
+[Footnote 133: _Ibid_. No. 10. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie, July 24.
+Cf. No. 24, Sir E. Grey to Sir G. Buchanan, July 25: 'The sudden,
+brusque, and peremptory character of the Austrian _demarche_ makes it
+almost inevitable that in a very short time both Russia and Austria will
+have mobilized against each other.']
+
+[Footnote 134: _Ibid_. No. 12. Sir E. Grey to Mr. Crackanthorpe, July
+24.]
+
+[Footnote 135: _Ibid_. No. 6. Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey, July 24:
+'I said ... direct British interests in Servia were _nil_, and a war on
+behalf of that country would never be sanctioned by British public
+opinion.']
+
+[Footnote 136: _Correspondence_, No. 24. Sir E. Grey to Sir G. Buchanan,
+July 25.]
+
+[Footnote 137: See note at the end of this chapter.]
+
+[Footnote 138: _Correspondence_, No. 36. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie,
+July 26.]
+
+[Footnote 139: _Ibid_. No. 87. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie, July 29.]
+
+[Footnote 140: _Ibid_. No. 91. Sir E. Grey to Sir M. de Bunsen, July
+29.]
+
+[Footnote 141: _Ibid_. No. 13. Note communicated to Sir E. Grey by the
+Russian Ambassador, July 25.]
+
+[Footnote 142: _Correspondence_, No. 6. Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey,
+July 24.]
+
+[Footnote 143: _Ibid_.]
+
+[Footnote 144: _Ibid_. No. 99. Sir F. Bertie to Sir E. Grey, July 30.
+Cf. No. 119, Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie, July 31.]
+
+[Footnote 145: _Correspondence_, No. 80. Sir R. Rodd to Sir E. Grey,
+July 29.]
+
+[Footnote 146: _Ibid_. No. 6. Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey, July 24.]
+
+[Footnote 147: _Ibid_. No. 44. Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey, July 27:
+'Their (sc. the German) attitude would merely be stiffened by such a
+menace, and we could only induce her (sc. Germany) to use her influence
+at Vienna to avert war by approaching her in the capacity of a friend
+who was anxious to preserve peace.']
+
+[Footnote 148: _Ibid_. No. 87. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie, July 29.]
+
+[Footnote 149: _Correspondence_, No. 47. Sir E. Grey to Sir G. Buchanan,
+July 27.]
+
+[Footnote 150: _Ibid_. No. 116. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie, July 31.]
+
+[Footnote 151: _Ibid_. No. 89. Sir E. Grey to Sir E. Goschen, July 29.]
+
+[Footnote 152: _Correspondence_, No. 95. Sir M. de Bunsen to Sir E.
+Grey, July 30: 'Although I am not able to verify it, I have private
+information that the German Ambassador knew the text of the Austrian
+ultimatum to Servia before it was despatched, and telegraphed it to the
+German Emperor. I know from the German Ambassador himself that he
+endorses every line of it.']
+
+[Footnote 153: But see Appendix IV.]
+
+[Footnote 154: _Correspondence_, No. 4, p. 8.]
+
+[Footnote 155: _Ibid_. No. 48. Sir E. Grey to Sir M. de Bunsen, July
+27.]
+
+[Footnote 156: pp. 3 to 5 and Exhibits 1 and 2 (see _infra_ Appendix
+I).]
+
+[Footnote 157: _Correspondence_, No. 61, Sir M. de Bunsen to Sir E.
+Grey, July 28; No. 78, Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey, July 29; No. 96,
+Sir M. de Bunsen to Sir E. Grey, July 30.]
+
+[Footnote 158: _Correspondence_, No. 110, Sir E. Grey to Sir G.
+Buchanan, July 31; No. 137, Sir E. Grey to Sir M. de Bunsen, August 1.]
+
+[Footnote 159: _The Times_, September 3, p. 7. For Italy's ignorance of
+the contents of the Austrian note, see App. V.]
+
+[Footnote 160: _Correspondence_, No. 29. Sir E. Grey to Sir R. Rodd,
+July 25.]
+
+[Footnote 161: _Ibid_. No. 49. Sir E. Grey to Sir R. Rodd, July 27.]
+
+[Footnote 162: _Ibid_. No. 57. Sir R. Rodd to Sir E. Grey, July 27. Cf.
+No. 78, Sir G. Buchanan to Sir E. Grey, July 29.]
+
+[Footnote 163: _Correspondence_, No. 64. Sir R. Rodd to Sir E. Grey,
+July 28. Cf. _supra_, p. 99.]
+
+[Footnote 164: _Ibid_. No. 80. Sir R. Rodd to Sir E. Grey, July 29. Cf.
+No. 92, Sir E. Grey to Sir R. Rodd, July 29.]
+
+[Footnote 165: _Ibid_. No. 106. Sir R. Rodd to Sir E. Grey, July 30.]
+
+[Footnote 166: _Ibid_. No. 79. Sir M. de Bunsen to Sir E. Grey, July
+29.]
+
+[Footnote 167: _Ibid_. No. 152. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie, August 3.]
+
+[Footnote 168: p. 15 (see Appendix I _infra_).]
+
+[Footnote 169: p. 16 (_ibid._).]
+
+[Footnote 170: _Correspondence_, No. 5. Sir E. Grey to Sir M. de Bunsen,
+July 24. The text is also given in the German White Book (pp. 18-23),
+which will be found in Appendix I.]
+
+[Footnote 171: _Ibid_. No. 14. Sir E. Grey to Sir F. Bertie, July 25.]
+
+[Footnote 172: _Ibid_. No. 4. Communicated by Count Mensdorff, July 24.]
+
+[Footnote 173: _Correspondence_, No. 39. Communicated by the Servian
+Minister, July 27. See also German White Book (pp. 23-32), _infra_ in
+Appendix I.]
+
+[Footnote 174: German White Book, pp. 24 _et sqq_.; see _infra_ Appendix
+I.]
+
+[Footnote 175: _Correspondence_, No. 5. Sir E. Grey to Sir M. de Bunsen,
+July 24.]
+
+[Footnote 176: German White Book, pp. 29 _et sqq_.; see _infra_ Appendix
+I.]
+
+[Footnote 177: _Correspondence_, No. 64. Sir R. Rodd to Sir E. Grey,
+July 28.]
+
+[Footnote 178: _Ibid_. No. 41. Sir M. de Bunsen to Sir E. Grey, July
+27.]
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER VI
+
+
+THE NEW GERMAN THEORY OF THE STATE
+
+The war in which England is now engaged with Germany is fundamentally a
+war between two different principles--that of _raison d'etat_, and that
+of the rule of law. The antagonism between these two principles appeared
+in our own internal history as far back as the seventeenth century, when
+the Stuarts championed the theory of state-necessity and the practice of
+a prerogative free to act outside and above the law in order to meet the
+demands of state-necessity, and when Parliament defended the rule of law
+and sought to include the Crown under that law. The same antagonism now
+appears externally in a struggle between two nations, one of which
+claims a prerogative to act outside and above the public law of Europe
+in order to secure the 'safety' of its own state, while the other stands
+for the rule of public law. The one regards international covenants to
+which it has pledged its own word as 'scraps of paper' when they stand
+in the way of _salus populi_; the other regards the maintenance of such
+covenants as a grave and inevitable obligation.
+
+Taught by Treitschke, whom they regard as their great national
+historian, and whose lectures on _Politik_ have become a gospel, the
+Germans of to-day assume as an ultimate end and a final standard what
+they regard as the national German state.[179] 'The state', says
+Treitschke, 'is the highest thing in the external society of man: above
+it there is nothing at all in the history of the world.' There is here
+no room for comity of nations; for a _societas totius humani generis_;
+for international law in any true sense. What really exists is the
+exclusive state--_der geschlossene Staat_--and in another sense than
+that of Fichte. This state is rigorously national: it excludes all
+foreign words from its vocabulary, and it would fain exclude all foreign
+articles from its shores in order to found a real 'national' economy
+such as List preached. Further, in the teaching of Treitschke this
+exclusive state is, 'as Machiavelli first clearly saw', essentially
+power: _der Staat ist Macht_. It may be defined as 'the public might for
+defence and offence'. As the highest duty of the individual is
+self-perfection, the highest duty of the state is self-preservation; and
+self-preservation means power. 'To care for its power is the highest
+moral duty of the state.' 'Of all political weaknesses that of
+feebleness is the most abominable and despicable: it is the sin against
+the Holy Spirit of Politics.' This may seem the mere worship of might,
+and it is in effect nothing else than the mere worship of might; but we
+should misrepresent Treitschke if we did not add that power is not
+conceived by him as mere or bare power. The power of the state is
+precious and ultimate because the state is a vehicle of culture: the
+armed sword of the German state is precious because that state is the
+_colporteur_ of German culture. And thus Treitschke holds that
+Machiavelli, the great apostle of might, is only wrong in so far as he
+failed to see that might must justify itself by having a content, that
+is to say, by being used to spread the highest moral culture. It is
+naturally assumed by German nationalists that this is German culture.
+
+Two results flow from this philosophy, one negative, the other positive.
+The negative result is the repudiation of any idea of the final
+character of international obligation; the other is the praise of the
+glory of war.
+
+_Salus populi suprema lex_; and to it all international 'law' so called
+must bend. The absolute sovereignty of the state is necessary for its
+absolute power; and that absolute sovereignty cannot be bound by _any_
+obligation, even of its own making. Every treaty or promise made by a
+state, Treitschke holds, is to be understood as limited by the proviso
+_rebus sic stantibus_. 'A state cannot bind its will for the future over
+against other states.' International treaties are no absolute
+limitation, but a voluntary self-limitation of the state, and only for
+such time as the state may find to be convenient. The state has no judge
+set over it, and any 'legal' obligation it may incur is in the last
+resort subject to its own decision--in other words, to its own
+repudiation.[180] That the end justifies the means (in other words, that
+the maintenance of the German Empire as it stands justifies the
+violation of an international obligation) 'has a certain truth'. 'It is
+ridiculous to advise a state which is in competition with other states
+to start by taking the catechism into its hands.' All these hints of his
+master were adopted and expanded by Bernhardi, the faithful disciple of
+Treitschke, whose Berlin lectures were attended in the last quarter of
+the nineteenth century by soldiers and officials as well as by students.
+There is no such thing, Bernhardi feels, as universal international law.
+'Each nation evolves its own conception of Right (_Recht_): none can say
+that one nation has a better conception than another.' 'No
+self-respecting nation would sacrifice its own conception of Right' to
+any international rule: 'by so doing it would renounce its own highest
+ideals.' The ardent nationalism which will reject foreign words and
+foreign wares will reject international law as something 'foreign'.
+Again, Bernhardi makes play with the proviso _rebus sic stantibus_; and
+this, curiously enough, he does in reference to Belgium. Things are
+altered in Belgium, and therefore the plighted word of Germany may no
+longer be binding. 'When Belgium was proclaimed neutral, no one
+contemplated that she would lay claim to a large and valuable region of
+Africa. It may well be asked whether the acquisition of such territory
+is not _ipso facto_ a breach of neutrality.'[181]
+
+But it is the glorification of war--war aggressive as well as war
+defensive--which is the most striking result of the doctrine of the
+all-sufficing, all-embracing national state. In the index to
+Treitschke's _Politik_, under the word War, one reads the following
+headings--'its sanctity'; 'to be conceived as an ordinance set by God';
+'is the most powerful maker of nations'; 'is politics _par excellence_'.
+Two functions, says Treitschke, the state exists to discharge; and these
+are to administer law, and to make war. Of the two war, since it is
+politics _par excellence_, would appear to be the greater. War cannot be
+thought or wished out of the world: it is the only medicine for a sick
+nation. When we are sunk in the selfish individualism of peace, war
+comes to make us realize that we are members one of another. 'Therein
+lies the majesty of war, that the petty individual altogether vanishes
+before the great thought of the state.' War alone makes us realize the
+social organism to which we belong: 'it is political idealism which
+demands war.' And again, 'what a perversion of morality it were, if one
+struck out of humanity heroism'(_Heldentum_)--as if _Heldentum_ could
+not exist in peace! 'But the living God will see to it that war shall
+always recur as a terrible medicine for humanity.'
+
+Thus the idealization of the state as power results in the idealization
+of war. As we have seen that the state must be 'power' in order to
+preserve itself at all, we now find that it must be a war-state to
+preserve itself from 'sickness'. If it does not fight, individualism
+will triumph over the social organism; heroism will perish out of the
+world. Hence Bernhardi writes: 'the maintenance of peace never can or
+may be the goal of a policy'. War, war--the 'strong medicine', the
+teacher of heroism, and, as Bernhardi adds to Treitschke, the inevitable
+biological law, the force that spreads the finest culture--war is the
+law of humanity. And this war is offensive as well as defensive--
+primarily, indeed, offensive. For the growing nation must preserve
+all its new members in its bosom: it must not let them slip away
+by emigration to foreign soils. It must therefore find for itself
+colonies; and since the world is already largely occupied, it must find
+them by conquest from other powers.[182] Treitschke already cried the
+watchwords--'Colonies!' 'Sea-power to gain colonies!' Treitschke already
+designated England as the object of German attack, and began to instil
+in Germany a hatred of England. England blocked the way to the growth of
+Germany from a European into a World-power; Germany, to preserve intact
+for German culture the surplus of the growing population, must be a
+World-power or perish. And besides, England was a 'sick' state--a sham,
+an hypocrisy.[183]
+
+The whole philosophy seems paganism, or rather barbarism, with a moral
+veneer. It seems barbarism, because it brings us back to the good old
+days when mere might was right. Bernhardi, speaking of the right of
+conquest of new territory inherent in a growing people, tells us that in
+such cases 'might is at once the supreme right, and the dispute as to
+what is right is decided by the arbitrament of war', which gives a
+'biologically just decision'! And he expresses wonder and surprise at
+those who think that 'the weak nation is to have the same right to live
+as the powerful and vigorous nation'. In a word, then, might is right.
+The doctrine has in itself a rude barbaric simplicity: what is utterly
+revolting in the neo-Germanic presentment is its moral veneer--the talk
+of war as the fruit of 'political idealism' and the expression of the
+'social organism': the talk of 'historical development' as invalidating
+supposed 'rights' like the neutrality of Belgium; above all, the talk of
+power as 'the vehicle of the highest culture'. Treitschke, a stern
+Protestant, seeks to reconcile the doctrine with Christianity; but the
+doctrine is all the same pagan. It is the worship of brute force
+disguised as _Heldentum_, and of vicious cunning disguised as political
+morality: it is a mixture of Nietzsche[184] and of Machiavelli. It is a
+doctrine of the omnipotence of the super-nation, which 'to maintain its
+state', as Machiavelli said, 'will go to work against faith and charity
+and humanity and religion', and which will stride ruthlessly to war when
+'the day' comes. And when it goes to war, all the veneer of culture
+goes. 'Have a care', Mommsen once said, 'lest in this state, which has
+been at once a power in arms and a power in intelligence, the
+intelligence should vanish, and nothing but the pure military state
+should remain.' Mommsen's warning has come true in August, 1914. By
+their fruits ye shall know them. The fruits of _Heldentum_ are Louvain
+smoking in ashes to the sky.
+
+It has seemed worth while to describe this philosophy of life, because
+it is not only the philosophy of a professor like Treitschke, but also
+that of a soldier like Bernhardi; and not only so, but it is the
+philosophy of the Prussian Government. Even the Imperial Chancellor
+himself used this doctrine (with some qualms, it is true) to justify
+Germany in 'hewing its way' through Belgium. Let us only remember, in
+justice to a great people, that it is not really the doctrine of
+Germany, but rather the doctrine of Prussia (though Treitschke will tell
+us that Germany is 'just merely an extended Prussia'). And let us
+remember, in extenuation of Prussia, that she has suffered from two
+things--geographical pressure springing from her mid-European situation,
+and an evil tradition of ruthless conquest perpetuated by her
+Hohenzollern rulers since the days of the Great Elector, and especially
+since Frederic the Great. Geographical pressure on all sides has made
+Prussia feel herself in a state of chronic strangulation; and a man who
+feels strangled will struggle ruthlessly for breath. To get breathing
+space, to secure frontiers which would ease an intolerable pressure,
+Frederic the Great could seize Silesia in time of peace in spite of his
+father's guarantee of the Pragmatic Sanction, and could suggest the
+partition of Poland. Frontier pressure thus led to ruthless conquest
+irrespective of rights; and that tradition has sunk deep. It has been
+easier for England, an island state in the West exempt from pressure, to
+think in other terms: it has been possible for Russia, secure in the
+East, to think, and to think nobly (as the present Tsar has done), of
+international obligation. Nor is it an accident that sees England and
+Russia united in the common cause of Europe to-day--that sees both
+championing the cause of small nations, one in the East, the other in
+the West.[185]
+
+But in whatever way we may excuse Prussia we must fight Prussia; and we
+fight it in the noblest cause for which men can fight. That cause is the
+public law of Europe, as a sure shield and buckler of all nations, great
+and small, and especially the small. To the doctrine of the almightiness
+of the state--to the doctrine that all means are justified which are, or
+seem, necessary to its self-preservation, we oppose the doctrine of a
+European society, or at least a European comity of nations, within which
+all states stand; we oppose the doctrine of a public law of Europe, by
+which all states are bound to respect the covenants they have made. We
+will not and cannot tolerate the view that nations are 'in the state and
+posture of gladiators' in their relations one with another; we stand for
+the reign of law.
+
+Our cause, as one would expect from a people that has fought out its own
+internal struggles under the forms of law, is a legal cause. We are a
+people in whose blood the cause of law is the vital element. It is no
+new thing in our history that we should fight for that cause. When
+England and Revolutionary France went to war in 1793, the cause, on the
+side of England, was a legal cause. We fought for the public law of
+Europe, as it had stood since the Peace of Westphalia in 1648. We did
+not fight in 1870, because neither France nor Germany had infringed the
+public law of Europe by attacking the neutrality of Belgium, but we were
+ready to fight if they did. A fine cartoon in _Punch_, of August, 1870,
+shows armed England encouraging Belgium, who stands ready with spear and
+shield, with the words--'Trust me! Let us hope that they won't trouble
+you, dear friend. But if they do----' To-day they have; and England has
+drawn her sword. How could she have done otherwise, with those
+traditions of law so deep in all Anglo-Saxon blood--traditions as real
+and as vital to Anglo-Saxon America as to Anglo-Saxon England;
+traditions which are the fundamental basis of Anglo-Saxon public life
+all the world over? America once fought and beat England, in
+long-forgotten days, on the ground of law. That very ground of law--that
+law-abidingness which is as deeply engrained in the men of Massachusetts
+to-day as it is in any Britisher--is a bond of sympathy between the two
+in this great struggle of the nations.
+
+To Germans our defence of public law may seem part of the moral
+hypocrisy of which in their view we are full. What we are doing, they
+feel, is to strike at Germany, our competitor for 'world-empire', with
+its dangerous navy, while Germany is engaged in a life and death
+struggle with France and Russia. We too, they feel, are Machiavellians;
+but we have put on what Machiavelli called 'the mantle of superstition',
+the pretence of morality and law, to cover our craft. It is true that we
+are fighting for our own interest. But what is our interest? We are
+fighting for Right, because Right is our supreme interest. The new
+German political theory enunciates that 'our interest is our right'. The
+old--the very old--English political theory is, 'The Right is our
+interest'. It is true that we have everything to gain by defending the
+cause of international law. Should that prevent us from defending that
+cause? What do we not lose of precious lives in the defence?
+
+This is the case of England. England stands for the idea of a public law
+of Europe, and for the small nations which it protects. She stands for
+her own preservation, which is menaced when public law is broken, and
+the 'ages' slow-bought gain' imperilled.
+
+(Treitschke's _Politik_, lectures delivered in Berlin during the years
+1875 to 1895, was published in two volumes in 1899. General Bernhardi's
+book, _Deutschland und der naechste Krieg_, was published in 1911, and
+has been translated into English under the title _Germany and the Next
+War_. See also J.A. Cramb, _England and Germany_, 1914.)
+
+Notes:
+
+[Footnote 179: The unity of the German state is in no small measure a
+matter of artificial Prussianization. Of this Prussianization Treitschke
+was the great advocate, though he was himself ultimately of Slavonic
+origin, and immediately of Saxon birth.]
+
+[Footnote 180: We are reminded of the famous sentence in _The
+Prince_:--_Dove non e giudizio da richiamare si guarda al fine_.]
+
+[Footnote 181: Bernhardi adds: 'The conception of permanent neutrality
+is entirely contrary to the essential nature of the state, which can
+only attain its highest moral aims in competition with other states.' It
+would seem to follow that by violating the neutrality of Belgium Germany
+is helping that country to attain its highest moral aims. The suggestion
+that Belgium is no longer a neutral Power was not adopted by the German
+Government before the war, nor by Dr. von Bethmann-Hollweg in his speech
+to the Reichstag on the Belgian question (see _supra_, p. 91).]
+
+[Footnote 182: It was significant that Germany, while offering to
+England at the end of July a guarantee of the integrity of the soil of
+France, would not offer any guarantee of the integrity of French
+colonies (_supra_, p. 82).]
+
+[Footnote 183: Nothing has here been said, though much might be said, of
+the distortion of history and ethnology by German nationalism, or
+Pan-Germanism. It is well known that the Pan-Germans regard England as
+Teutonic, and destined to be gathered into the German fold. In these
+last few weeks we have been reproached as a people for being traitors to
+our 'Teutonic' blood. Better be traitors to blood than to plain duty;
+but as a matter of fact our mixed blood has many other strains than the
+Teutonic. On the aims of the Pan-Germanists readers may with profit
+consult a book by Paul Vergnet, _La France en danger_ (Oct. 1913).]
+
+[Footnote 184: In fairness to Nietzsche it should be said that in his
+later years he revolted against the Prussian military system.]
+
+[Footnote 185: German professors have recently reproached England for
+being allied with 'Muscovite barbarism'. Is Russia so barbarous, whose
+sovereign convened the first Peace Conference? Have not England and
+Russia striven together in peace (as they now strive together in war)
+for a great common cause? The German White Book, which seeks to fasten
+on Russia the blame of the present war, is oblivious of all that has
+happened in these matters since 1898. The reader may with advantage
+refer, on this subject, to a pamphlet by Professor Vinogradoff, _Russia:
+the Psychology of a Nation_ (Oxford, 1914).]
+
+
+
+
+EPILOGUE
+
+
+In conclusion something must be said of the process by which our
+understanding with France, still so elastic in 1912 and 1913, became the
+solid alliance which now, on sea and land alike, confronts the German
+forces. England gave France no positive engagements until the eleventh
+hour; it may be argued that England gave them far too late, and that the
+war might never have occurred if England had been less obstinately and
+judicially pacific. But the English case for the delay is clear. We
+hesitated to throw in our lot with France, because France would not
+stand neutral while Germany made war on Russia. We shrank from the
+incalculable entanglements which seemed to lie before us if we allied
+ourselves with a power which was so committed. Why, we were asking
+ourselves, should we fight the battles of Russia in the Balkans?
+
+We were perhaps too cautious in suspecting that France might contemplate
+this policy. She could not define beforehand the limits which she would
+observe in defending Russia's cause. But she knew, as we now know, that
+a war with Russia meant, to German statesmen, only a pretext for a new
+attack on France, even more deadly in intention than that of 1870.
+France could not do without the help of Russia. How then could she
+afford to forfeit Russia's friendship by declaring, at Germany's
+command, that she would do nothing to help Russia?
+
+This loyalty to the Dual Alliance left France during the last days
+before the war in a cruel dilemma. Russia, however well disposed, could
+not help her ally in the first weeks of a war; and for France these were
+the critical weeks, the weeks upon which her own fate must depend. She
+appealed urgently to England for support.
+
+But, even on July 31st, the English Cabinet replied that it could make
+no definite engagement. This answer, it is true, had been foreshadowed
+in earlier communications. Sir Edward Grey had made it abundantly clear
+that there could be no prospect of common action unless France were
+exposed to 'an unprovoked attack', and no certainty of such action even
+in that case. But France had staked everything upon the justice of her
+cause. She had felt that her pacific intentions were clear to all the
+world; and that England could not, with any self-respect, refuse
+assistance. The French mobilization had been delayed until July 31st, to
+convince the British Cabinet of French good faith; and the French fleet
+had been left in the Mediterranean to guard the interests of England no
+less than those of France. We can imagine how bitter was the
+disappointment with which France received the English answer of July
+31st.
+
+But we were loyal to our obligations as we understood them. If our
+answers to France were guarded, our answers to the German overtures of
+July 29th and August 1st show that we were fighting the battle of France
+with diplomatic weapons. On August 2nd we went still further, by
+undertaking to defend the French coasts and shipping, if the German
+fleet should come into the Channel or through the North Sea. To justify
+our position of reserve from July 31st to August 4th we may quote what
+Mr. Asquith said the other day (September 4th):--
+
+    'No one who has not been in that position can realize the strength,
+    the energy, and the persistence with which we laboured for peace. We
+    persevered by every expedient that diplomacy could suggest,
+    straining almost to breaking-point our most cherished friendships
+    and obligations.'
+
+Those efforts failed. We know to-day that mediation had never any
+prospects of success, because Germany had resolved that it should not
+succeed. Ought we to have known this from the first? It is easy to be
+wise after the event. But in England we have Cabinet government and we
+have Parliamentary government. Before an English minister can act, in a
+matter of national importance, no matter how positive his own
+convictions may be, he must convince his colleagues, and they must feel
+certain of convincing a democracy which is essentially pacific,
+cautious, slow to move. Nothing short of the German attack on Belgium
+would have convinced the ordinary Englishman that German statesmanship
+had degenerated into piracy. That proof was given us on August 4th; and
+on that day we sent our ultimatum to Berlin.
+
+To-day all England is convinced; and we are fighting back to back with
+the French for their national existence and our own. Our own, because
+England's existence depends not only on her sea-power, but upon the
+maintenance of European state-law. The military spirit which we have
+described above (Chap. VI) tramples upon the rights of nations because
+it sees a foe in every equal; because it regards the prosperity of a
+neighbour as a national misfortune; because it holds that national
+greatness is only to be realized in the act of destroying or absorbing
+other nationalities. To those who are not yet visibly assailed, and who
+possibly believe themselves secure, we can only give the warning: _Tua
+res agitur, paries cum proximus ardet_.
+
+Of the issue England is not afraid. The most unfavourable issue would
+find her still convinced that she has taken the only course compatible
+with honour and with public law. Military anarchism shall be destroyed
+if England, France, and Russia can destroy it. On this object England
+and France have staked their last ship and their last soldier. But, it
+may be asked, what state-system do we hope to establish, if and when we
+are successful in this great crusade?
+
+What England not only desires but needs, and needs imperatively, is,
+first, the restitution to Belgium of her former status and whatever else
+can be restored of all that she has sacrificed. This is the
+indispensable preliminary to any form of settlement. The next essential
+is an adequate guarantee to France that she shall never experience such
+another invasion as we have seen in August, 1914; without a France which
+is prosperous, secure, and independent, European civilization would be
+irreparably maimed and stunted. The third essential, as essential as the
+other two, is the conservation of those other nations which can only
+exist on sufferance so long as _Realpolitik_ is practised with impunity.
+
+To minor nationalities it should be clear that England is their friend,
+and cannot choose but stand their friend. Three times in her history she
+has made war upon a would-be despot of the Continent, treating the
+'Balance of Power' as a principle for which no sacrifice could be too
+great. In these struggles she assisted the small Powers, less from
+altruism than because their interest was her own. She supported Holland
+against Philip II of Spain and against Louis XIV; against Napoleon she
+supported not Holland only, but also Portugal and, to the best of her
+power, Switzerland and Piedmont.
+
+We do not argue--it would be absurd to argue--that England has always
+been free from reproach in her dealings with the smaller states. Holland
+may well remember the naval conflicts of the seventeenth century and the
+English Navigation Laws. But Holland should also remember that, in the
+seventeenth century, England was not yet a great Power; Holland and
+England fought as rivals and on equal terms, in a feud which subsequent
+alliances have healed, over a policy which England has long since
+renounced as mischievous and futile. On Denmark we inflicted a great
+wrong in 1807; it can only be extenuated by the fact, which Denmark
+knows now though she did not know it then, that Napoleon had conspired
+with Russia to seize the Danish fleet and use it against England.
+Denmark, indeed, has better cause to complain that we gave her no
+assistance in 1864. That mistake--for it was a mistake of weakness, not
+deliberate treachery--has brought its own nemesis. We are still paying
+for that particular mistake, and we are not likely to forget the lesson.
+The case of Schleswig-Holstein shows how the losses of such a state as
+Denmark may react on such a state as England.
+
+England cannot afford that her weaker neighbours should become less
+prosperous or less independent than they are. So far as the long arm of
+naval power reaches, England is bound to give them whatever help she
+can. From motives of self-preservation, if on no other ground, she could
+not tolerate their subordination to such a power as Germany aspires to
+found. Her quarrel is not with the German people, but with the political
+system for which the German Empire, in its present temper, stands. That
+system England is bound to resist, no matter by what power it is
+adopted.
+
+English sympathies and English traditions are here at one with English
+interests. England is proud to recollect how she befriended struggling
+nationalities in the nineteenth century. She did not support Greece and
+Italy for the sake of any help that they could give her. The goodwill of
+England to Holland, to Switzerland, to the Scandinavian states, is
+largely based upon their achievements in science and art and literature.
+They have proved that they can serve the higher interests of humanity.
+They have contributed to the growth of that common civilization which
+links together the small powers and the great with bonds more sacred and
+more durable than those of race, of government, of material interest. In
+this fraternity each nation has a duty to the rest. If we have harped on
+England's interest, it must not for a moment be supposed that we have
+forgotten England's duty. But England stands to-day in this fortunate
+position, that her duty and her interest combine to impel her in the
+same direction.
+
+
+
+
+APPENDIX I
+
+
+GERMANY'S REASONS
+
+FOR
+
+WAR WITH RUSSIA
+
+
+How Russia and her Ruler betrayed Germany's confidence and thereby made
+the European War.
+
+WITH THE ORIGINAL TELEGRAMS
+AND NOTES.
+
+Druck und Verlag: Liebheit & Thiesen, Berlin.
+
+Foreign Office,
+Berlin, August 1914.
+
+On June 28th the Austro-Hungarian successor to the throne, Arch-Duke
+Franz Ferdinand, and his wife, the Duchess of Hohenberg, were
+assassinated by a member of a band of servian conspirators. The
+investigation of the crime through the Austro-Hungarian authorities has
+yielded the fact that the conspiracy against the life of the Arch-Duke
+and successor to the throne was prepared and abetted in Belgrade with
+the cooperation of Servian officials, and executed with arms from the
+Servian State arsenal. This crime must have opened the eyes of the
+entire civilized world, not only in regard to the aims of the Servian
+policies directed against the conservation and integrity of the
+Austro-Hungarian monarchy, but also concerning the criminal means which
+the pan-Serb propaganda in Servia had no hesitation in employing for the
+achievement of these aims.
+
+The goal of these policies was the gradual revolutionizing and final
+separation of the south-easterly districts from the Austro-Hungarian
+monarchy and their union with Servia. This direction of Servias policy
+has not been altered in the least in spite of the repeated and solemn
+declarations of Servia in which it vouchsafed a change in these policies
+toward Austria-Hungary as well as the cultivation of good and neighborly
+relations.
+
+In this manner for the third time in the course of the last 6 years
+Servia has led Europe to the brink of a world-war.
+
+It could only do this because it believed itself supported in its
+intentions by Russia.
+
+Russia soon after the events brought about by the Turkish revolution of
+1908, endeavored to found a union of the Balcan states under Russian
+patronage and directed against the existence of Turkey. This union which
+succeeded in 1911 in driving out Turkey from a greater part of her
+European possessions, collapsed over the question of the distribution of
+spoils. The Russian policies were not dismayed over this failure.
+According to the idea of the Russian statesmen a new Balcan union under
+Russian patronage should be called into existence, headed no longer
+against Turkey, now dislodged from the Balcan, but against the existence
+of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy. It was the idea that Servia should
+cede to Bulgaria those parts of Macedonia which it had received during
+the last Balcan war, in exchange for Bosnia and the Herzegovina which
+were to be taken from Austria. To oblige Bulgaria to fall in with this
+plan it was to be isolated, Roumania attached to Russia with the aid of
+French propaganda, and Servia promised Bosnia and the Herzegovina.
+
+Under these circumstances it was clear to Austria that it was not
+compatible with the dignity and the spirit of self-preservation of the
+monarchy to view idly any longer this agitation across the border. The
+Imperial and Royal Government appraised Germany of this conception and
+asked for our opinion. With all our heart we were able to agree with our
+allys estimate of the situation, and assure him that any action
+considered necessary to end the movement in Servia directed against the
+conservation of the monarchy would meet with our approval.
+
+We were perfectly aware that a possible warlike attitude of
+Austria-Hungary against Servia might bring Russia upon the field, and
+that it might therefore involve us in a war, in accordance with our duty
+as allies. We could not, however, in these vital interests of
+Austria-Hungary, which were at stake, advise our ally to take a yielding
+attitude not compatible with his dignity, nor deny him our assistance in
+these trying days. We could do this all the less as our own interests
+were menaced through the continued Serb agitation. If the Serbs
+continued with the aid of Russia and France to menace the existence of
+Austria-Hungary, the gradual collapse of Austria and the subjection of
+all the Slavs under one Russian sceptre would be the consequence, thus
+making untenable the position of the Teutonic race in Central Europe. A
+morally weakened Austria under the pressure of Russian pan-slavism would
+be no longer an ally on whom we could count and in whom we could have
+confidence, as we must be able to have, in view of the ever more
+menacing attitude of our easterly and westerly neighbors. We, therefore,
+permitted Austria a completely free hand in her action towards Servia
+but have not participated in her preparations.
+
+Austria chose the method of presenting to the Servian Government a note,
+in which the direct connection between the murder at Sarajevo and the
+pan-Serb movement, as not only countenanced but actively supported by
+the Servian Government, was explained, and in which a complete cessation
+of this agitation, as well as a punishment of the guilty, was requested.
+At the same time Austria-Hungary demanded as necessary guarantee for the
+accomplishment of her desire the participation of some Austrian
+officials in the preliminary examination on Servian territory and the
+final dissolution of the pan-Serb societies agitating against
+Austria-Hungary. The Imperial and Royal Government gave a period of 48
+hours for the unconditional acceptance of its demands.
+
+The Servian Government started the mobilization of its army one day
+after the transmission of the Austro-Hungarian note.
+
+As after the stipulated date the Servian Government rendered a reply
+which, though complying in some points with the conditions of
+Austria-Hungary, yet showed in all essentials the endeavor through
+procrastination and new negotiations to escape from the just demands of
+the monarchy, the latter discontinued her diplomatic relations with
+Servia without indulging in further negotiations or accepting further
+Servian assurances, whose value, to its loss, she had sufficiently
+experienced.
+
+From this moment Austria was in fact in a state of war with Servia,
+which it proclaimed officially on the 28th of July by declaring war.
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibits 1 & 2.]
+
+From the beginning of the conflict we assumed the position that there
+were here concerned the affairs of Austria alone, which it would have to
+settle with Servia. We therefore directed our efforts toward the
+localizing of the war, and toward convincing the other powers that
+Austria-Hungary had to appeal to arms in justifiable self-defence,
+forced upon her by the conditions. We emphatically took the position
+that no civilized country possessed the right to stay the arm of Austria
+in this struggle with barbarism and political crime, and to shield the
+Servians against their just punishment. In this sense we instructed our
+representatives with the foreign powers.
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibit 3.]
+
+Simultaneously the Austro-Hungarian Government communicated to the
+Russian Government that the step undertaken against Servia implied
+merely a defensive measure against the Serb agitation, but that
+Austria-Hungary must of necessity demand guarantees for a continued
+friendly behavior of Servia towards the monarchy. Austria-Hungary had no
+intention whatsoever to shift the balance of power in the Balcan.
+
+In answer to our declaration that the German Government desired, and
+aimed at, a localization of the conflict, both the French and the
+English Governments promised an action in the same direction. But these
+endeavors did not succeed in preventing the interposition of Russia in
+the Austro-Servian disagreement.
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibits 4 & 5.]
+
+The Russian Government submitted an official communique on July 24th,
+according to which Russia could not possibly remain indifferent in the
+Servio-Austrian conflict. The same was declared by the Russian Secretary
+of Foreign Affairs, M. Sasonow, to the German Ambassador, Count
+Pourtales, in the afternoon of July 26th. The German Government declared
+again, through its Ambassador at St. Petersburg, that Austria-Hungary
+had no desire for conquest and only wished peace at her frontiers. After
+the official explanation by Austria-Hungary to Russia that it did not
+claim territorial gain in Servia, the decision concerning the peace of
+the world rested exclusively with St. Petersburg.
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibits 6, 7, 8, 9.]
+
+The same day the first news of Russian mobilization reached Berlin in
+the evening.
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibits 10, 10a, 10b.]
+
+The German Ambassadors at London, Paris, and St. Petersburg were
+instructed to energetically point out the danger of this Russian
+mobilization. The Imperial Ambassador at St. Petersburg was also
+directed to make the following declaration to the Russian Government:
+
+    "Preparatory military measures by Russia will force us to
+    counter-measures which must consist in mobilizing the army.
+
+    "But mobilization means war.
+
+    "As we know the obligations of France towards Russia, this
+    mobilization would be directed against both Russia and France. We
+    cannot assume that Russia desires to unchain such a European war.
+    Since Austria-Hungary will not touch the existence of the Servian
+    kingdom, we are of the opinion that Russia can afford to assume an
+    attitude of waiting. We can all the more support the desire of
+    Russia to protect the integrity of Servia as Austria-Hungary does
+    not intend to question the latter. It will be easy in the further
+    development of the affair to find a basis for an understanding."
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibit 11.]
+
+On July 27th the Russian Secretary of War, M. Ssuchomlinow, gave the
+German military attache his word of honor that no order to mobilize had
+been issued, merely preparations were being made, but not a horse
+mustered, nor reserves called in. If Austria-Hungary crossed the Servian
+frontier, the military districts directed towards Austria, i.e. Kiev,
+Odessa, Moscow, Kazan, would be mobilized, under no circumstances those
+situated on the German frontier, i.e. St. Petersburg, Vilna, and Warsaw.
+Upon inquiry into the object of the mobilization against
+Austria-Hungary, the Russian Minister of War replied by shrugging his
+shoulders and referring to the diplomats. The military attache then
+pointed to these mobilization measures against Austria-Hungary as
+extremely menacing also for Germany.
+
+In the succeeding days news concerning Russian mobilization came at a
+rapid rate. Among it was also news about preparations on the
+German-Russian frontier, as for instance the announcement of the state
+of war in Kovno, the departure of the Warsaw garrison, and the
+strengthening of the Alexandrovo garrison.
+
+On July 27th, the first information was received concerning preparatory
+measures taken by France: the 14th Corps discontinued the manoeuvres and
+returned to its garrison.
+
+In the meantime we had endeavored to localize the conflict by most
+emphatic steps.
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibit 12.]
+
+On July 26th, Sir Edward Grey had made the proposal to submit the
+differences between Austria-Hungary and Servia to a conference of the
+Ambassadors of Germany, France, and Italy under his chairmanship. We
+declared in regard to this proposal that we could not, however much we
+approved the idea, participate in such a conference, as we could not
+call Austria in her dispute with Servia before a European tribunal.
+
+France consented to the proposal of Sir Edward Grey, but it foundered
+upon Austria's declining it, as was to be expected.
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibit 13.]
+
+Faithful to our principle that mediation should not extend to the
+Austro-Servian conflict, which is to be considered as a purely
+Austro-Hungarian affair, but merely to the relations between
+Austria-Hungary and Russia, we continued our endeavors to bring about an
+understanding between these two powers.
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibits 15 & 16.]
+
+We further declared ourselves ready, after failure of the conference
+idea, to transmit a second proposal of Sir Edward Grey's to Vienna in
+which he suggested Austria-Hungary should decide that either the Servian
+reply was sufficient, or that it be used as a basis for further
+negotiations. The Austro-Hungarian Government remarked with full
+appreciation of our action that it had come too late, the hostilities
+having already been opened.
+
+In spite of this we continued our attempts to the utmost, and we advised
+Vienna to show every possible advance compatible with the dignity of the
+monarchy.
+
+Unfortunately, all these proposals were overtaken by the military
+preparations of Russia and France.
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibit 17.]
+
+On July 29th, the Russian Government made the official notification in
+Berlin that four army districts had been mobilized. At the same time
+further news was received concerning rapidly progressing military
+preparations of France, both on water and on land.
+
+On the same day the Imperial Ambassador in St. Petersburg had an
+interview with the Russian Foreign Secretary, in regard to which he
+reported by telegraph, as follows:
+
+    "The Secretary tried to persuade me that I should urge my Government
+    to participate in a quadruple conference to find means to induce
+    Austria-Hungary to give up those demands which touch upon the
+    sovereignty of Servia. I could merely promise to report the
+    conversation and took the position that, after Russia had decided
+    upon the baneful step of mobilization, every exchange of ideas
+    appeared now extremely difficult, if not impossible. Besides, Russia
+    now was demanding from us in regard to Austria-Hungary the same
+    which Austria-Hungary was being blamed for with regard to Servia,
+    i.e. an infraction of sovereignty. Austria-Hungary having promised
+    to consider the Russian interests by disclaiming any territorial
+    aspiration,--a great concession on the part of a state engaged in
+    war--should therefore be permitted to attend to its affair with
+    Servia alone. There would be time at the peace conference to return
+    to the matter of forbearance towards the sovereignty of Servia.
+
+    "I added very solemnly that at this moment the entire Austro-Servian
+    affair was eclipsed by the danger of a general European
+    conflagration, and I endeavored to present to the Secretary the
+    magnitude of this danger.
+
+    "It was impossible to dissuade Sasonow from the idea that Servia
+    could not now be deserted by Russia".
+
+On July 29th, the German Military Attache at St. Petersburg wired the
+following report on a conversation with the Chief of the General Staff
+of the Russian army:
+
+    "The Chief of the General Staff has asked me to call on him, and he
+    has told me that he has just come from His Majesty. He has been
+    requested by the Secretary of War to reiterate once more that
+    everything had remained as the Secretary had informed me two days
+    ago. He offered confirmation in writing and gave me his word of
+    honor in the most solemn manner that nowhere there had been a
+    mobilization, viz. calling in of a single man or horse up to the
+    present time, i.e. 3 o'clock in the afternoon. He could not assume a
+    guaranty for the future, but he could emphasize that in the fronts
+    directed towards our frontiers His Majesty desired no mobilization.
+
+    "As, however, I had received here many pieces of news concerning the
+    calling in of the reserves in different parts of the country also in
+    Warsaw and in Vilna, I told the general that his statements placed
+    me before a riddle. On his officers word of honor he replied that
+    such news was wrong, but that possibly here and there a false alarm
+    might have been given.
+
+    "I must consider this conversation as an attempt to mislead us as to
+    the extent of the measures hitherto taken in view of the abundant
+    and positive information about the calling in of reserves."
+
+In reply to various inquiries concerning reasons for its threatening
+attitude, the Russian Government repeatedly pointed out that
+Austria-Hungary had commenced no conversation in St. Petersburg. The
+Austro-Hungarian Ambassador in St. Petersburg was therefore instructed
+on July 29th, at our suggestion, to enter into such conversation with
+Sasonow. Count Szapary was empowered to explain to the Russian minister
+the note to Servia though it had been overtaken by the state of war, and
+to accept any suggestion on the part of Russia as well as to discuss
+with Sasonow all questions touching directly upon the Austro-Russian
+relations.
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibit 19.]
+
+Shoulder to shoulder with England we labored incessantly and supported
+every proposal in Vienna from which we hoped to gain the possibility of
+a peaceable solution of the conflict. We even as late as the 30th of
+July forwarded the English proposal to Vienna, as basis for
+negotiations, that Austria-Hungary should dictate her conditions in
+Servia, i.e. after her march into Servia. We thought that Russia would
+accept this basis.
+
+During the interval from July 29th to July 31st there appeared renewed
+and cumulative news concerning Russian measures of mobilization.
+Accumulation of troops on the East Prussian frontier and the declaration
+of the state of war over all important parts of the Russian west
+frontier allowed no further doubt that the Russian mobilization was in
+full swing against us, while simultaneously all such measures were
+denied to our representative in St. Petersburg on word of honor.
+
+Nay, even before the reply from Vienna regarding the Anglo-German
+mediation whose tendencies and basis must have been known in St.
+Petersburg, could possibly have been received in Berlin, Russia ordered
+a general mobilization.
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibits 18, 20, 21, 22, 23.]
+
+During the same days, there took place between His Majesty the Kaiser,
+and Czar Nicolas an exchange of telegrams in which His Majesty called
+the attention of the Czar to the menacing character of the Russian
+mobilization during the continuance of his own mediating activities.
+
+On July 31st, the Czar directed the following telegram to His Majesty
+the Kaiser:
+
+    "I thank You cordially for Your mediation which permits the hope
+    that everything may yet end peaceably. It is technically impossible
+    to discontinue our military preparations which have been made
+    necessary by the Austrian mobilization. It is far from us to want
+    war. As long as the negotiations between Austria and Servia
+    continue, my troops will undertake no provocative action. I give You
+    my solemn word thereon. I confide with all my faith in the grace of
+    God, and I hope for the success of Your mediation in Vienna for the
+    welfare of our countries and the peace of Europe.
+
+    "Your cordially devoted
+
+    "Nicolas."
+
+This telegram of the Czar crossed with the following, sent by H.M. the
+Kaiser, also on July 31st, at 2 p.m.:
+
+    "Upon Your appeal to my friendship and Your request for my aid I
+    have engaged in mediation between Your Government and the Government
+    of Austria-Hungary. While this action was taking place, Your troops
+    were being mobilized against my ally Austria-Hungary, whereby, as I
+    have already communicated to You, my mediation has become almost
+    illusory. In spite of this, I have continued it, and now I receive
+    reliable news that serious preparations for war are going on on my
+    eastern frontier. The responsibility for the security of my country
+    forces me to measures of defence. I have gone to the extreme limit
+    of the possible in my efforts for the preservation of the peace of
+    the world. It is not I who bear the responsibility for the
+    misfortune which now threatens the entire civilized world. It rests
+    in Your hand to avert it. No one threatens the honor and peace of
+    Russia which might well have awaited the success of my mediation.
+    The friendship for You and Your country, bequeathed to me by my
+    grand-father on his deathbed, has always been sacred to me, and I
+    have stood faithfully by Russia while it was in serious affliction,
+    especially during its last war. The peace of Europe can still be
+    preserved by You if Russia decides to discontinue those military
+    preparations which menace Germany and Austria-Hungary."
+
+Before this telegram reached its destination, the mobilization of all
+the Russian forces, obviously directed against us and already ordered
+during the afternoon of the 31st of July, was in full swing.
+Notwithstanding, the telegram of the Czar was sent at 2 o'clock that
+same afternoon.
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibit 24.]
+
+After the Russian general mobilization became known in Berlin, the
+Imperial Ambassador at St. Petersburg was instructed on the afternoon of
+July 31st to explain to the Russian Government that Germany declared the
+state of war as counter-measure against the general mobilization of the
+Russian army and navy which must be followed by mobilization if Russia
+did not cease its military measures against Germany and Austria-Hungary
+within 12 hours, and notified Germany thereof.
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibit 25.]
+
+At the same time the Imperial Ambassador in Paris was instructed to
+demand from the French Government a declaration within 18 hours, whether
+it would remain neutral in a Russo-German war.
+
+The Russian Government destroyed through its mobilization, menacing the
+security of our country, the laborious action at mediation of the
+European cabinets. The Russian mobilization in regard to the seriousness
+of which the Russian Government was never allowed by us to entertain a
+doubt, in connection with its continued denial, shows clearly that
+Russia wanted war.
+
+The Imperial Ambassador at St. Petersburg delivered his note to M.
+Sasonow on July 31st at 12 o'clock midnight.
+
+The reply of the Russian Government has never reached us.
+
+Two hours after the expiration of the time limit the Czar telegraphed to
+H.M. the Kaiser, as follows:
+
+    "I have received Your telegram. I comprehend that You are forced to
+    mobilize, but I should like to have from You the same guaranty which
+    I have given You, viz., that these measures do not mean war, and
+    that we shall continue to negotiate for the welfare of our two
+    countries and the universal peace which is so dear to our hearts.
+    With the aid of God it must be possible to our long tried friendship
+    to prevent the shedding of blood. I expect with full confidence Your
+    urgent reply."
+
+To this H.M. the Kaiser replied:
+
+    "I thank You for Your telegram. I have shown yesterday to Your
+    Government the way through which alone war may yet be averted.
+    Although I asked for a reply by to-day noon, no telegram from my
+    Ambassador has reached me with the reply of Your Government. I
+    therefore have been forced to mobilize my army. An immediate, clear
+    and unmistakable reply of Your Government is the sole way to avoid
+    endless misery. Until I receive this reply I am unable, to my great
+    grief, to enter upon the subject of Your telegram. I must ask most
+    earnestly that You, without delay, order Your troops to commit,
+    under no circumstances, the slightest violation of our frontiers."
+
+As the time limit given to Russia had expired without the receipt of a
+reply to our inquiry, H.M. the Kaiser ordered the mobilization of the
+entire German Army and Navy on August 1st at 5 p.m.
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibit 25.]
+
+The German Ambassador at St. Petersburg was instructed that, in the
+event of the Russian Government not giving a satisfactory reply within
+the stipulated time, he should declare that we considered ourselves in a
+state of war after the refusal of our demands. However, before a
+confirmation of the execution of this order had been received, that is
+to say, already in the afternoon of August 1st, i.e., the same afternoon
+on which the telegram of the Czar, cited above, was sent, Russian troops
+crossed our frontier and marched into German territory.
+
+Thus Russia began the war against us.
+
+Meanwhile the Imperial Ambassador in Paris put our question to the
+French Cabinet on July 31st at 7 p.m.
+
+[Sidenote: see exhibit 27.]
+
+The French Prime Minister gave an equivocal and unsatisfactory reply on
+August 1st at 1. p.m. which gave no clear idea of the position of
+France, as he limited himself to the explanation that France would do
+that which her interests demanded. A few hours later, at 5 p.m., the
+mobilization of the entire French army and navy was ordered.
+
+On the morning of the next day France opened hostilities.
+
+
+THE ORIGINAL TELEGRAMS AND NOTES.
+
+
+THE NOTE OF AUSTRIA-HUNGARY TO SERVIA.
+
+Presented July 23rd in Belgrade.
+
+"On March 31st, 1909, the Royal Servian Minister to the Court of Vienna
+made the following statement, by order of his Government:
+
+"Servia declares that she is not affected in her rights by the situation
+established in Bosnia, and that she will therefore adapt herself to the
+decisions which the powers are going to arrive at in reference to Art.
+25 of the Berlin Treaty. By following the councils of the powers, Servia
+binds herself to cease the attitude of protest and resistence which she
+has assumed since last October, relative to the annexation, and she
+binds herself further to change the direction of her present policies
+towards Austria-Hungary, and, in the future, to live with the latter in
+friendly and neighborly relations.
+
+"The history of the last years, and especially the painful events of
+June 28th, have demonstrated the existence of a subversive movement in
+Servia whose aim it is to separate certain territories from the
+Austro-Hungarian monarchy. This movement, which developed under the eyes
+of the Servian Government, has found expression subsequently beyond the
+territory of the kingdom, in acts of terrorism, a series of
+assassinations and murders.
+
+"Far from fulfilling the formal obligations contained in the declaration
+of March 31st, 1909, the Royal Servian Government has done nothing to
+suppress this movement. She suffered the criminal doings of the various
+societies and associations directed against the monarchy, the unbridled
+language of the press, the glorification of the originators of
+assassinations, the participation of officers and officials in
+subversive intrigues; she suffered the unwholesome propaganda in public
+education, and lastly permitted all manifestations which would mislead
+the Servian people into hatred of the monarchy and into contempt for its
+institutions.
+
+"This sufferance of which the Royal Servian Government made itself
+guilty, has lasted up to the moment in which the events of June 28th
+demonstrated to the entire world the ghastly consequences of such
+sufferance.
+
+"_It becomes plain from the evidence and confessions of the criminal
+authors of the outrage of June 28th, that the murder at Sarajevo was
+conceived in Belgrade, that the murderers received the arms and bombs
+with which they were equipped, from Servian officers and officials who
+belonged to the Narodna Odbrana, and that, lastly, the transportation of
+the criminals and their arms to Bosnia was arranged and carried out by
+leading Servian frontier officials._
+
+"The cited results of the investigation do not permit the Imperial and
+Royal Government to observe any longer the attitude of waiting, which it
+has assumed for years towards those agitations which have their centre
+in Belgrade, and which from there radiate into the territory of the
+monarchy. These results, on the contrary, impose upon the Imperial and
+Royal Government the duty to terminate intrigues which constitute a
+permanent menace for the peace of the monarchy.
+
+"In order to obtain this purpose, the Imperial and Royal Government is
+forced to demand official assurance from the Servian Government that it
+condemns the propaganda directed against Austria-Hungary, i.e. the
+entirety of the machinations whose aim it is to separate parts from the
+monarchy which belong to it, and that she binds herself to suppress with
+all means this criminal and terrorizing propaganda.
+
+"In order to give to these obligations a solemn character, the Royal
+Servian Government will publish on the first page of its official organ
+of July 26th, 1914, the following declaration:
+
+"The Royal Servian Government condemns the propaganda directed against
+Austria-Hungary, i.e. the entirety of those machinations whose aim it is
+to separate from the Austro-Hungarian monarchy territories belonging
+thereto, and she regrets sincerely the ghastly consequences of these
+criminal actions.
+
+"The Royal Servian Government regrets that Servian officers and
+officials have participated in the propaganda, cited above, and have
+thus threatened the friendly and neighborly relations which the Royal
+Government was solemnly bound to cultivate by its declaration of March
+31st, 1909.
+
+"The Royal Government which disapproves and rejects every thought or
+every attempt at influencing the destinations of the inhabitants of any
+part of Austria-Hungary, considers it its duty to call most emphatically
+to the attention of its officers and officials, and of the entire
+population of the kingdom, that it will hence-forward proceed with the
+utmost severity against any persons guilty of similar actions, to
+prevent and suppress which it will make every effort."
+
+"This explanation is to be brought simultaneously to the cognizance of
+the Royal Army through an order of H.M. the King, and it is to be
+published in the official organ of the Army.
+
+"The Royal Servian Government binds itself, in addition, as follows:
+
+"1. to suppress any publication which fosters hatred of, and contempt
+for, the Austro-Hungarian monarchy, and whose general tendency is
+directed against the latters territorial integrity;
+
+"2. to proceed at once with the dissolution of the society Narodna
+Odbrana, to confiscate their entire means of propaganda, and to proceed
+in the same manner against the other societies and associations in
+Servia which occupy themselves with the propaganda against
+Austria-Hungary. The Royal Government will take the necessary measures,
+so that the dissolved societies may not continue their activities under
+another name or in another form;
+
+"3. without delay to eliminate from the public instruction in Servia, so
+far as the corps of instructors, as well as the means of instruction are
+concerned, that which serves, or may serve, to foster the propaganda
+against Austria-Hungary;
+
+"4. to remove from military service and the administration in general all
+officers and officials who are guilty of propaganda against
+Austria-Hungary, and whose names, with a communication of the material
+which the Imperial and Royal Government possesses against them, the
+Imperial and Royal Government reserves the right to communicate to the
+Royal Government;
+
+"5. to consent that in Servia officials of the Imperial and Royal
+Government co-operate in the suppression of a movement directed against
+the territorial integrity of the monarchy;
+
+"6. to commence a judicial investigation against the participants of the
+conspiracy of June 28th, who are on Servian territory. Officials,
+delegated by the Imperial and Royal Government will participate in the
+examinations;
+
+"7. to proceed at once with all severity to arrest Major Voja Tankosic
+and a certain Milan Ciganowic, Servian State officials, who have been
+compromised through the result of the investigation;
+
+"8. to prevent through effective measures the participation of the
+Servian authorities in the smuggling of arms and explosives across the
+frontier and to dismiss those officials of Shabatz and Loznica, who
+assisted the originators of the crime of Sarajevo in crossing the
+frontier;
+
+"9. to give to the Imperial and Royal Government explanations in regard
+to the unjustifiable remarks of high Servian functionaries in Servia and
+abroad who have not hesitated, in spite of their official position, to
+express themselves in interviews in a hostile manner against
+Austria-Hungary after the outrage of June 28th;
+
+"10. The Imperial and Royal Government expects a reply from the Royal
+Government at the latest until Saturday 25th inst., at 6 p.m. A memoir
+concerning the results of the investigations at Sarajevo, so far as they
+concern points 7. and 8. is enclosed with this note."
+
+ENCLOSURE.
+
+The investigation carried on against Gabrilo Princip and accomplices in
+the Court of Sarajevo, on account of the assassination on June 28th has,
+so far, yielded the following results:
+
+1. The plan to murder Arch-Duke Franz Ferdinand during his stay in
+Sarajevo was conceived in Belgrade by Gabrilo Princip, Nedeljko,
+Gabrinowic, and a certain Milan Ciganowic and Trifko Grabez, with the
+aid of Major Voja Tankosic.
+
+2. The six bombs and four Browning pistols which were used by the
+criminals, were obtained by Milan Ciganowic and Major Tankosic, and
+presented to Princip Gabrinowic in Belgrade.
+
+3. The bombs are hand grenades, manufactured at the arsenal of the
+Servian Army in Kragujevac.
+
+4. To insure the success of the assassination, Milan Ciganowic
+instructed Princip Gabrinowic in the use of the grenades and gave
+instructions in shooting with Browning pistols to Princip Grabez in a
+forest near the target practice field of Topshider--(outside Belgrade).
+
+5. In order to enable the crossing of the frontier of Bosnia and
+Herzegovina by Princip Gabrinowic and Grabez, and the smuggling of their
+arms, a secret system of transportation was organized by Ciganowic. The
+entry of the criminals with their arms into Bosnia and Herzegovina was
+effected by the frontier captains of Shabatz (Rade Popowic) and of
+Loznica, as well as by the custom house official Rudivoy Grbic of
+Loznica with the aid of several other persons.
+
+
+THE SERVIAN ANSWER.
+
+Presented at Vienna, July 25th, 1914.
+(With Austria's commentaries in italics.)
+
+The Royal Government has received the communication of the Imperial and
+Royal Government of the 23rd inst. and is convinced that its reply will
+dissipate any misunderstanding which threatens to destroy the friendly
+and neighborly relations between the Austrian monarchy and the kingdom
+of Servia.
+
+The Royal Government is conscious that nowhere there have been renewed
+protests against the great neighborly monarchy like those which at one
+time were expressed in the Skuptschina, as well as in the declaration
+and actions of the responsible representatives of the state at that
+time, and which were terminated by the Servian declaration of March 31st
+1909; furthermore that since that time neither the different
+corporations of the kingdom, nor the officials have made an attempt to
+alter the political and judicial condition created in Bosnia and the
+Herzegovina. The Royal Government states that the I. and R. Government
+has made no protestation in this sense excepting in the case of a text
+book, in regard to which the I. and R. Government has received an
+entirely satisfactory explanation. Servia has given during the time of
+the Balcan crisis in numerous cases evidence of her pacific and moderate
+policy, and it is only owing to Servia and the sacrifices which she has
+brought in the interest of the peace of Europe that this peace has been
+preserved.
+
+_The Royal Servian Government limits itself to establishing that since
+the declaration of March 31st 1909, there has been no attempt on the
+part of the Servian Government to alter the position of Bosnia and the
+Herzegovina._
+
+_With this she deliberately shifts the foundation of our note, as we
+have not insisted that she and her officials have undertaken anything
+official in this direction. Our gravamen is that in spite of the
+obligation assumed in the cited note, she has omitted to suppress the
+movement directed against the territorial integrity of the monarchy._
+
+_Her obligation consisted in changing her attitude and the entire
+direction of her policies, and in entering into friendly and neighborly
+relations with the Austro-Hungarian monarchy, and not only not to
+interfere with the possession of Bosnia._
+
+The Royal Government cannot be made responsible for expressions of a
+private character, as for instance newspaper articles and the peaceable
+work of societies, expressions which are of very common appearance in
+other countries, and which ordinarily are not under the control of the
+state. This, all the less, as the Royal Government has shown great
+courtesy in the solution of a whole series of questions which have
+arisen between Servia and Austria-Hungary, whereby it has succeeded to
+solve the greater number thereof, in favor of the progress of both
+countries.
+
+_The assertion of the Royal Servian Government that the expressions of
+the press and the activity of Servian associations possess a private
+character and thus escape governmental control, stands in full contrast
+with the institutions of modern states and even the most liberal of
+press and society laws, which nearly everywhere subject the press and
+the societies to a certain control of the state. This is also provided
+for by the Servian institutions. The rebuke against the Servian
+Government consists in the fact that it has totally omitted to supervise
+its press and its societies, in so far as it knew their direction to be
+hostile to the monarchy._
+
+The Royal Government was therefore painfully surprised by the assertions
+that citizens of Servia had participated in the preparations of the
+outrage in Sarajevo. The Government expected to be invited to cooperate
+in the investigation of the crime, and it was ready in order to prove
+its complete correctness, to proceed against all persons in regard to
+whom it would receive information.
+
+_This assertion is incorrect. The Servian Government was accurately
+informed about the suspicion resting upon quite definite personalities
+and not only in the position, but also obliged by its own laws to
+institute investigations spontaneously. The Servian Government has done
+nothing in this direction._
+
+According to the wishes of the I. and R. Government, the Royal
+Government is prepared to surrender to the court, without regard to
+position and rank, every Servian citizen, for whose participation in the
+crime of Sarajevo it should have received proof. It binds itself
+particularly on the first page of the official organ of the 26th of July
+to publish the following enunciation:
+
+"The Royal Servian Government condemns every propaganda which should be
+directed against Austria-Hungary, i. e. the entirety of such activities
+as aim towards the separation of certain territories from the
+Austro-Hungarian monarchy, and it regrets sincerely the lamentable
+consequences of these criminal machinations."
+
+_The Austrian demand reads_:
+
+"_The Royal Servian Government condemns the propaganda against
+Austria-Hungary_...."
+
+_The alteration of the declaration as demanded by us, which has been
+made by the Royal Servian Government, is meant to imply that a
+propaganda directed against Austria-Hungary does not exist, and that it
+is not aware of such. This formula is insincere, and the Servian
+Government reserves itself the supterfuge for later occasions that it
+had not disavowed by this declaration the existing propaganda, nor
+recognized the same as hostile to the monarchy, whence it could deduce
+further that it is not obliged to suppress in the future a propaganda
+similar to the present one_.
+
+The Royal Government regrets that according to a communication of the I.
+and R. Government certain Servian officers and functionaries have
+participated in the propaganda just referred to, and that these have
+therefore endangered the amicable relations for the observation of which
+the Royal Government had solemnly obliged itself through the declaration
+of March 31st, 1909.
+
+The Government ... identical with the demanded text.
+
+_The formula as demanded by Austria reads_:
+
+"_The Royal Government regrets that Servian officers and functionaries
+... have participated_...."
+
+_Also with this formula and the further addition "according to the
+declaration of the I. and R. Government", the Servian Government pursues
+the object, already indicated above, to preserve a free hand for the
+future_.
+
+The Royal Government binds itself further:
+
+1. During the next regular meeting of the Skuptschina to embody in the
+press laws a clause, to wit, that the incitement to hatred of, and
+contempt for, the monarchy is to be must severely punished, as well as
+every publication whose general tendency is directed against the
+territorial integrity of Austria-Hungary.
+
+It binds itself in view of the coming revision of the constitution to
+embody an amendment into Art. 22 of the constitutional law which permits
+the confiscation of such publications as is at present impossible
+according to the clear definition of Art. 22 of the constitution.
+
+_Austria had demanded_:
+
+_1. To suppress every publication which incites to hatred and contempt
+for the monarchy, and whose tendency is directed against the territorial
+integrity of the monarchy._
+
+_We wanted to bring about the obligation for Servia to take care that
+such attacks of the press would cease in the future._
+
+_Instead Servia offers to pass certain laws which are meant as means
+towards this end, viz.:_
+
+_a) A law according to which the expressions of the press hostile to the
+monarchy can be individually punished, a matter, which is immaterial to
+us, all the more so, as the individual prosecution of press intrigues is
+very rarely possible and as, with a lax enforcement of such laws, the
+few cases of this nature would not be punished. The proposition,
+therefore, does not meet our demand in any way, and it offers not the
+least guarantee for the desired success._
+
+_b) An amendment to Art. 22 of the constitution, which would permit
+confiscation, a proposal, which does not satisfy us, as the existence of
+such a law in Servia is of no use to us. For we want the obligation of
+the Government to enforce it and that has not been promised us._
+
+_These proposals are therefore entirely unsatisfactory and evasive as we
+are not told within what time these laws will be passed, and as in the
+event of the notpassing of these laws by the Skuptschina everything
+would remain as it is, excepting the event of a possible resignation of
+the Government._
+
+2. The Government possesses no proofs and the note of the I. and R.
+Government does not submit them that the society Narodna Odbrana and
+other similar societies have committed, up to the present, any criminal
+actions of this manner through anyone of their members. Notwithstanding
+this, the Royal Government will accept the demand of the I. and R.
+Government and dissolve the society Narodna Odbrana, as well as every
+society which should act against Austria-Hungary.
+
+_The propaganda of the Narodna Odbrana and affiliated societies hostile
+to the monarchy fills the entire public life of Servia; it is therefore
+an entirely inacceptable reserve if the Servian Government asserts that
+it knows nothing about it. Aside from this, our demand is not completely
+fulfilled, as we have asked besides:_
+
+"_To confiscate the means of propaganda of these societies to prevent
+the reformation of the dissolved societies under another name and in
+another form._"
+
+_In these two directions the Belgrade Cabinet is perfectly silent, so
+that through this semi-concession there is offered us no guarantee for
+putting an end to the agitation of the associations hostile to the
+Monarchy, especially the Narodna Odbrana._
+
+3. The Royal Servian Government binds itself without delay to eliminate
+from the public instruction in Servia anything which might further the
+propaganda directed against Austria-Hungary provided the I. and R.
+Government furnishes actual proofs.
+
+_Also in this case the Servian Government first demands proofs for a
+propaganda hostile to the Monarchy in the public instruction of Servia
+while it must know that the text books introduced in the Servian schools
+contain objectionable matter in this direction and that a large portion
+of the teachers are in the camp of the Narodna Odbrana and affiliated
+societies._
+
+_Furthermore, the Servian Government has not fulfilled a part of our
+demands, as we have requested, as it omitted in its text the addition
+desired by us: "as far as the body of instructors is concerned, as well
+as the means of instruction"--a sentence which shows clearly where the
+propaganda hostile to the Monarchy is to be found in the Servian
+schools_.
+
+4. The Royal Government is also ready to dismiss those officers and
+officials from the military and civil services in regard to whom it has
+been proved by judicial investigation that they have been guilty of
+actions against the territorial integrity of the monarchy; it expects
+that the I. and R. Government communicate to it for the purpose of
+starting the investigation the names of these officers and officials,
+and the facts with which they have been charged.
+
+_By promising the dismissal from the military and civil services of
+those officers and officials who are found guilty by judicial procedure,
+the Servian Government limits its assent to those cases, in which these
+persons have been charged with a crime according to the statutory code.
+As, however, we demand the removal of such officers and officials as
+indulge in a propaganda hostile to the Monarchy, which is generally not
+punishable in Servia, our demands have not been fulfilled in this
+point_.
+
+5. The Royal Government confesses that it is not clear about the sense
+and the scope of that demand of the I. and R. Government which concerns
+the obligation on the part of the Royal Servian Government to permit the
+cooperation of officials of the I. and R. Government on Servian
+territory, but it declares that it is willing to accept every
+cooperation which does not run counter to international law and criminal
+law, as well as to the friendly and neighborly relations.
+
+_The international law, as well as the criminal law, has nothing to do
+with this question; it is purely a matter of the nature of state police
+which is to be solved by way of a special agreement. The reserved
+attitude of Servia is therefore incomprehensible and on account of its
+vague general form it would lead to unbridgeable difficulties_.
+
+6. The Royal Government considers it its duty as a matter of course to
+begin an investigation against all those persons who have participated
+in the outrage of June 28th and who are in its territory. As far as the
+cooperation in this investigation of specially delegated officials of
+the I. and R. Government is concerned, this cannot be accepted, as this
+is a violation of the constitution and of criminal procedure. Yet in
+some cases the result of the investigation might be communicated to the
+Austro-Hungarian officials.
+
+_The Austrian demand was clear and unmistakable_:
+
+_1. To institute a criminal procedure against the participants in the
+outrage_.
+
+_2. Participation by I. and R. Government officials in the examinations
+("Recherche" in contrast with "enquete judiciaire")._
+
+_3. It did not occur to us to let I. and R. Government officials
+participate in the Servian court procedure; they were to cooperate only
+in the police researches which had to furnish and fix the material for
+the investigation._
+
+_If the Servian Government misunderstands us here, this is done
+deliberately, for it must be familiar with the difference between
+"enquete judiciaire" and simple police researches. As it desired to
+escape from every control of the investigation which would yield, if
+correctly carried out, highly undesirable results for it, and as it
+possesses no means to refuse in a plausible manner the cooperation of
+our officials (precedents for such police intervention exist in great
+number) it tries to justify its refusal by showing up our demands as
+impossible_.
+
+7. The Royal Government has ordered on the evening of the day on which
+the note was received the arrest of Major Voislar Tankosic. However, as
+far as Milan Ciganowic is concerned who is a citizen of the
+Austro-Hungarian Monarchy and who has been employed till June 28th with
+the Railroad Department, it has as yet been impossible to locate him,
+wherefor a warrant has been issued against him.
+
+The I. and R. Government is asked to make known, as soon as possible,
+for the purpose of conducting the investigation, the existing grounds
+for suspicion and the proofs of guilt, obtained in the investigation at
+Sarajevo.
+
+_This reply is disingenuous. According to our investigation, Ciganowic,
+by order of the police prefect in Belgrade, left three days after the
+outrage for Ribari, after it had become known that Ciganowic had
+participated in the outrage. In the first place, it is therefore
+incorrect that Ciganowic left the Servian service on June 28th. In the
+second place, we add that the prefect of police at Belgrade who had
+himself caused the departure of this Ciganowic and who knew his
+whereabout, declared in an interview that a man by the name of Milan
+Ciganowic did not exist in Belgrade_.
+
+8. The Servian Government will amplify and render more severe the
+existing measures against the suppression of smuggling of arms and
+explosives.
+
+It is a matter of course that it will proceed at once against, and
+punish severely, those officials of the frontier service on the line
+Shabatz-Loznica who violated their duty and who have permitted the
+perpetrators of the crime to cross the frontier.
+
+9. The Royal Government is ready to give explanations about the
+expressions which its officials in Servia and abroad have made in
+interviews after the outrage and which, according to the assertion of
+the I. and R. Government, were hostile to the Monarchy. As soon as the
+I. and R. Government points out in detail where those expressions were
+made and succeeds in proving that those expressions have actually been
+made by the functionaries concerned, the Royal Government itself will
+take care that the necessary evidences and proofs are collected
+therefor.
+
+_The Royal Servian Government must be aware of the interviews in
+question. If it demands of the I. and R. Government that it should
+furnish all kinds of detail about the said interviews and if it reserves
+for itself the right of a formal investigation, it shows that it is not
+its intention seriously to fulfill the demand._
+
+10. The Royal Government will notify the I. and R. Government, so far as
+this has not been already done by the present note, of the execution of
+the measures in question as soon as one of those measures has been
+ordered and put into execution.
+
+The Royal Servian Government believes it to be to the common interest
+not to rush the solution of this affair and it is therefore, in case the
+I. and R. Government should not consider itself satisfied with this
+answer, ready, as ever, to accept a peaceable solution, be it by
+referring the decision of this question to the International Court at
+the Hague or by leaving it to the decision of the Great Powers who have
+participated in the working out of the declaration given by the Servian
+Government on March 31st 1909.
+
+_The Servian Note, therefore, is entirely a play for time._
+
+
+EXHIBIT I.
+
+The Chancellor to the Imperial Ambassadors at Paris, London, and St.
+Petersburg, on Juli 23rd 1914.
+
+The publications of the Austro-Hungarian Government concerning the
+circumstances under which the Assassination of the Austrian successor to
+the throne and his consort took place, disclose clearly the aims which
+the pan-Serb propaganda has set itself and the means which it utilizes
+for their realization. Through the published facts the last doubt must
+disappear that the center of action of the efforts for the separation of
+the south slavic provinces from the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy and their
+union with the Servian Kingdom must be sought in Belgrade where it
+displays its activity with the connivance of members of the Government
+and of the Army.
+
+The Serb intrigues may be traced back through a series of years. In a
+specially marked manner the pan-Serb chauvinism showed itself during the
+Bosnian crisis. Only to the far-reaching self-restraint and moderation
+of the Austro-Hungarian Government and the energetic intercession of the
+powers is it to be ascribed that the provocations to which at that time
+Austria-Hungary was exposed on the part of Servia, did not lead to a
+conflict. The assurance of future well-behaviour which the Servian
+Government gave at that time, it has not kept. Under the very eyes, at
+least with the tacit sufferance of official Servia, the pan-Serb
+propaganda has meanwhile increased in scope and intensity; at its door
+is to be laid the latest crime the threads of which lead to Belgrade. It
+has become evident that it is compatible neither with the dignity nor
+with the self-preservation of the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy to view any
+longer idly the doings across the border through which the safety and
+the integrity of the Monarchy are permanently threatened. With this
+state of affairs, the action as well as the demands of the
+Austro-Hungarian government can be viewed only as justifiable.
+Nevertheless, the attitude assumed by public opinion as well as by the
+government in Servia does not preclude the fear that the Servian
+government will decline to meet these demands and that it will allow
+itself to be carried away into a provocative attitude toward
+Austria-Hungary. Nothing would remain for the Austro-Hungarian
+government, unless it renounced definitely its position as a great
+power, but to press its demands with the Servian government and, if need
+be, enforce the same by appeal to military measures, in regard to which
+the choice of means must be left with it.
+
+I have the honor to request you to express yourself in the sense
+indicated above to (the present representative of M. Viviani) (Sir
+Edward Grey) (M. Sasonow) and therewith give special emphasis to the
+view that in this question there is concerned an affair which should be
+settled solely between Austria-Hungary and Servia, the limitation to
+which it must be the earnest endeavor of the powers to insure. We
+anxiously desire the localisation of the conflict because every
+intercession of another power on account of the various treaty-alliances
+would precipitate inconceivable consequences.
+
+I shall look forward with interest to a telegraphic report about the
+course of your interview.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 2.
+
+The Chancellor to the Governments of Germany.
+Confidential. Berlin, July 28, 1914.
+
+You will make the following report to the Government to which you are
+accredited:
+
+In view of the facts which the Austrian Government has published in its
+note to the Servian Government, the last doubt must disappear that the
+outrage to which the Austro-Hungarian successor to the throne has fallen
+a victim, was prepared in Servia, to say the least with the connivance
+of members of the Servian government and army. It is a product of the
+pan-Serb intrigues which for a series of years have become a source of
+permanent disturbance for the Austro-Hungarian Monarchy and for the
+whole of Europe.
+
+The pan-Serb chauvinism appeared especially marked during the Bosnian
+crisis. Only to the far-reaching self-restraint and moderation of the
+Austro-Hungarian government and the energetic intercession of the powers
+is it to be ascribed that the provocations to which Austria-Hungary was
+exposed at that time, did not lead to a conflict. The assurance of
+future well-behaviour, which the Servian government gave at that time,
+it has not kept. Under the very eyes, at least with the tacit sufferance
+of official Servia, the pan-Serb propaganda has meanwhile continued to
+increase in scope and intensity. It would be compatible neither with its
+dignity nor with its right to self-preservation if the Austro-Hungarian
+government persisted to view idly any longer the intrigues beyond the
+frontier, through which the safety and the integrity of the monarchy are
+permanently threatened. With this state of affairs, the action as well
+as the demands of the Austro-Hungarian Government can be viewed only as
+justifiable.
+
+The reply of the Servian government to the demands which the
+Austro-Hungarian government put on the 23rd inst. through its
+representative in Belgrade, shows that the dominating factors in Servia
+are not inclined to cease their former policies and agitation. There
+will remain nothing else for the Austro-Hungarian government than to
+press its demands, if need be through military action, unless it
+renounces for good its position as a great power.
+
+Some Russian personalities deem it their right as a matter of course and
+a task of Russia's to actively become a party to Servia in the conflict
+between Austria-Hungary and Servia. For the European conflagration which
+would result from a similar step by Russia, the "Nowoje Wremja" believes
+itself justified in making Germany responsible in so far as it does not
+induce Austria-Hungary to yield.
+
+The Russian press thus turns conditions upside down. It is not
+Austria-Hungary which has called forth the conflict with Servia, but it
+is Servia which, through unscrupulous favor toward pan-Serb aspirations,
+even in parts of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy, threatens the same in
+her existence and creates conditions, which eventually found expression
+in the wanton outrage at Sarajevo. If Russia believes that it must
+champion the cause of Servia in this matter, it certainly has the right
+to do so. However, it must realize that it makes the Serb activities its
+own, to undermine the conditions of existence of the Austro-Hungarian
+monarchy, and that thus it bears the sole responsibility if out of the
+Austro-Servian affair, which all other great powers desire to localize,
+there arises a European war. This responsibility of Russia's is evident
+and it weighs the more heavily as Count Berchtold has officially
+declared to Russia that Austria-Hungary has no intention to acquire
+Servian territory or to touch the existence of the Servian Kingdom, but
+only desires peace against the Servian intrigues threatening its
+existence.
+
+The attitude of the Imperial government in this question is clearly
+indicated. The agitation conducted by the pan-Slavs in Austria-Hungary
+has for its goal, with the destruction of the Austro-Hungarian monarchy,
+the scattering or weakening of the triple alliance with a complete
+isolation of the German Empire in consequence. Our own interest
+therefore calls us to the side of Austria-Hungary. The duty, if at all
+possible, to guard Europe against a universal war, points to the support
+by ourselves of those endeavors which aim at the localization of the
+conflict, faithful to the course of those policies which we have carried
+out successfully for forty-four years in the interest of the
+preservation of the peace of Europe.
+
+Should, however, against our hope, through the interference of Russia
+the fire be spread, we should have to support, faithful to our duty as
+allies, the neighbor-monarchy with all the power at our command. We
+shall take the sword only if forced to it, but then in the clear
+consciousness that we are not guilty of the calamity which war will
+bring upon the peoples of Europe.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 3.
+
+Telegram of the Imperial Ambassador at Vienna to the Chancellor on July
+24th 1914.
+
+Count Berchtold has asked to-day for the Russian Charge d'affaires in
+order to explain to him thoroughly and cordially Austria-Hungary's point
+of view toward Servia. After recapitulation of the historical
+development of the past few years, he emphasized that the Monarchy
+entertained no thought of conquest toward Servia. Austria-Hungary would
+not claim Servian territory. It insisted merely that this step was meant
+as a definite means of checking the Serb intrigues. Impelled by force of
+circumstance, Austria-Hungary must have a guaranty for continued
+amicable relations with Servia. It was far from him to intend to bring
+about a change in the balance of powers in the Balcan. The Charge
+d'affaires who had received no instructions from St. Petersburg, took
+the discussion of the Secretary "ad referendum" with the promise to
+submit it immediately to Sasonow.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 4.
+
+Telegram of the Imperial Ambassador at St. Petersburg to the Chancellor
+on July 24th 1914.
+
+I have just utilized the contents of Order 592 in a prolonged interview
+with Sasonow. The Secretary (Sasonow) indulged in unmeasured accusations
+toward Austria-Hungary and he was very much agitated. He declared most
+positively that Russia could not permit under any circumstances that the
+Servo-Austrian difficulty be settled alone between the parties
+concerned.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 5.
+
+The Imperial Ambassador at St. Petersburg to the Chancellor. Telegram of
+July 26th 1914.
+
+The Austro-Hungarian Ambassador had an extended interview with Sasonow
+this afternoon. Both parties had a satisfactory impression as they told
+me afterwards. The assurance of the Ambassador that Austria-Hungary had
+no idea of conquest but wished to obtain peace at last at her frontiers,
+greatly pacified the Secretary.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 6.
+
+Telegram of the Imperial Ambassador at St. Petersburg, to the Chancellor
+on July 25th 1914.
+
+Message to H.M. from General von Chelius (German honorary aide de camp
+to the Czar).
+
+The manoeuvres of the troops in the Krasnoe camp were suddenly
+interrupted and the regiments returned to their garrisons at once. The
+manoeuvres have been cancelled. The military pupils were raised to-day
+to the rank of officers instead of next fall. At headquarters there
+obtains great excitement over the procedure of Austria. I have the
+impression that complete preparations for mobilization against Austria
+are being made.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 7.
+
+Telegram of the Imperial Ambassador at St. Petersburg, to the Chancellor
+on July 26th 1914.
+
+The military attache requests the following message to be sent to the
+general staff:
+
+I deem it certain that mobilisation has been ordered for Kiev and
+Odessa. It is doubtful at Warsaw and Moscow and improbable elsewhere.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 8.
+
+Telegram of the Imperial Consulate at Kovno to the Chancellor on July
+27th 1914.
+
+Kovno has been declared to be in a state of war.
+
+(Note that the official translator means _Kriegszustand_.)
+
+
+EXHIBIT 9.
+
+Telegram of the Imperial Minister at Berne to the Chancellor on July
+27th 1914.
+
+Have learned reliably that French XIVth corps has discontinued
+manoeuvres.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 10.
+
+Telegram of the Chancellor to the Imperial Ambassador at London. Urgent.
+July 26th 1914.
+
+Austria-Hungary has declared in St. Petersburg officially and solemnly
+that it has no desire for territorial gain in Servia; that it will not
+touch the existence of the Kingdom, but that it desires to establish
+peaceful conditions. According to news received here, the call for
+several classes of the reserves is expected immediately which is
+equivalent to mobilization.[186] If this news proves correct, we shall
+be forced to contermeasures very much against our own wishes. Our desire
+to localize the conflict and to preserve the peace of Europe remains
+unchanged. We ask to act in this sense at St. Petersburg with all
+possible emphasis.
+
+[Footnote 186: The German text inserts _auch gegen uns_, i.e. also
+against us.]
+
+
+EXHIBIT 10a.
+
+Telegram of the Imperial Chancellor to the Imperial Ambassador at Paris.
+July 26th 1914.
+
+After officially declaring to Russia that Austria-Hungary has no
+intention to acquire territorial gain and to touch the existence of the
+Kingdom, the decision whether there is to be a European war rests solely
+with Russia which has to bear the entire responsibility. We depend upon
+France with which we are at one in the desire for the preservation of
+the peace of Europe that it will exercise its influence at St.
+Petersburg in favour of peace.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 10b.
+
+Telegram of the Chancellor to the Imperial Ambassador at St. Petersburg
+on July 26th, 1914.
+
+After Austria's solemn declaration of its territorial
+dis-interestedness, the responsibility for a possible disturbance of the
+peace of Europe through a Russian intervention rests solely upon Russia.
+We trust still that Russia will undertake no steps which will threaten
+seriously the peace of Europe.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 11.
+
+Telegram of the Imperial Ambassador at St. Petersburg to the Chancellor
+on July 27th, 1914.
+
+Military Attache reports a conversation with the Secretary of War:
+
+Sasonow has requested the latter to enlighten me on the situation. The
+Secretary of War has given me his word of honor that no order to
+mobilize has as yet been issued. Though general preparations are being
+made, no reserves were called and no horses mustered. If Austria crossed
+the Servian frontier, such military districts as are directed toward
+Austria, viz., Kiev, Odessa, Moscow, Kazan, are to be mobilized. Under
+no circumstances those on the German frontier, Warsaw, Vilna, St.
+Petersburg. Peace with Germany was desired very much. Upon my inquiry
+into the object of mobilization against Austria he shrugged his
+shoulders and referred to the diplomats. I told the Secretary that we
+appreciated the friendly intentions, but considered mobilization even
+against Austria as very menacing.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 12.
+
+Telegram of the Chancellor to the Imperial Ambassador at London on July
+27th, 1914.
+
+We know as yet nothing of a suggestion of Sir Edward Grey's to hold a
+quadruple conference in London. It is impossible for us to place our
+ally in his dispute with Servia before a European tribunal. Our
+mediation must be limited to the danger of an Austro-Russian conflict.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 13.
+
+Telegram of the Chancellor to the Imperial Ambassador at London on July
+25th, 1914.
+
+The distinction made by Sir Edward Grey between an Austro-Servian and an
+Austro-Russian conflict is perfectly correct. We do not wish to
+interpose in the former any more than England, and as heretofore we take
+the position that this question must be localized by virtue of all
+powers refraining from intervention. It is therefore our hope that
+Russia will refrain from any action in view of her responsibility and
+the seriousness of the situation. We are prepared, in the event of an
+Austro-Russian controversy, quite apart from our known duties as allies,
+to intercede between Russia and Austria jointly with the other powers.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 14.
+
+Telegram of the Chancellor to the Imperial Ambassador at St. Petersburg
+on July 28th, 1914.
+
+We continue in our endeavor to induce Vienna to elucidate in St.
+Petersburg the object and scope of the Austrian action in Servia in a
+manner both convincing and satisfactory to Russia. The declaration of
+war which has meanwhile ensued alters nothing in this matter.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 15.
+
+Telegram of the Chancellor to the Imperial Ambassador in London on July
+27th, 1914.
+
+We have at once started the mediation proposal in Vienna in the sense as
+desired by Sir Edward Grey. We have communicated besides to Count
+Berchtold the desire of M. Sasonow for a direct parley with Vienna.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 16.
+
+Telegram of the Imperial Ambassador at Vienna to the Chancellor on July
+28th, 1914.
+
+Count Berchtold requests me to express to Your Excellency his thanks for
+the communication of the English mediation proposal. He states, however,
+that after the opening of hostilities by Servia and the subsequent
+declaration of war, the step appears belated.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 17.
+
+Telegram of the Chancellor to the Imperial Ambassador at Paris on July
+29th, 1914.
+
+News received here regarding French preparations of war multiplies from
+hour to hour. I request that You call the attention of the French
+Government to this and accentuate that such measures would call forth
+counter-measures on our part. We should have to proclaim threatening
+state of war (drohende Kriegsgefahr), and while this would not mean a
+call for the reserves or mobilization, yet the tension would be
+aggravated. We continue to hope for the preservation of peace.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 18.
+
+Telegram of the Military Attache at St. Petersburg to H. M. the Kaiser
+on July 30th, 1914.
+
+Prince Troubetzki said to me yesterday, after causing Your Majesty's
+telegram to be delivered at once to Czar Nicolas: Thank God that a
+telegram of Your Emperor has come. He has just told me the telegram has
+made a deep impression upon the Czar but as the mobilization against
+Austria had already been ordered and Sasonow had convinced His Majesty
+that it was no longer possible to retreat, His Majesty was sorry he
+could not change it any more. I then told him that the guilt for the
+measureless consequences lay at the door of premature mobilization
+against Austria-Hungary which after all was involved merely in a local
+war with Servia, for Germany's answer was clear and the responsibility
+rested upon Russia which ignored Austria-Hungary's assurance that it had
+no intentions of territorial gain in Servia. Austria-Hungary mobilized
+against Servia and not against Russia and there was no ground for an
+immediate action on the part of Russia. I further added that in Germany
+one could not understand any more Russia's phrase that "she could not
+desert her brethren in Servia", after the horrible crime of Sarajevo. I
+told him finally he need not wonder if Germany's army were to be
+mobilized.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 19.
+
+Telegram of the Chancellor to the Imperial Ambassador at Rome on July
+31st, 1914.
+
+We have continued to negotiate between Russia and Austria-Hungary
+through a direct exchange of telegrams between His Majesty the Kaiser
+and His Majesty the Czar, as well as in conjunction with Sir Edward
+Grey. Through the mobilization of Russia all our efforts have been
+greatly handicapped if they have not become impossible. In spite of
+pacifying assurances Russia is taking such far-reaching measures against
+us that the situation is becoming continually more menacing.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 20.
+
+I. His Majesty to the Czar.
+
+July 28th, 10.45 p.m.
+
+I have heard with the greatest anxiety of the impression which is caused
+by the action of Austria-Hungary against Servia. The inscrupulous
+agitation which has been going on for years in Servia, has led to the
+revolting crime of which Archduke Franz Ferdinand has become a victim.
+The spirit which made the Servians murder their own King and his
+consort, still dominates that country. Doubtless You will agree with me
+that both of us, You as well as I, and all other sovereigns, have a
+common interest to insist that all those who are responsible for this
+horrible murder, shall suffer their deserved punishment.
+
+On the other hand I by no means overlook the difficulty encountered by
+You and Your Government to stem the tide of public opinion. In view of
+the cordial friendship which has joined us both for a long time with
+firm ties, I shall use my entire influence to induce Austria-Hungary to
+obtain a frank and satisfactory understanding with Russia. I hope
+confidently that You will support me in my efforts to overcome all
+difficulties which may yet arise.
+
+Your most sincere and devoted friend and cousin
+
+signed: Wilhelm.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 21.
+
+II. The Czar to His Majesty.
+
+Peterhof Palace, July 29th, 1 p.m.
+
+I am glad that You are back in Germany. In this serious moment I ask You
+earnestly to help me. An ignominious war has been declared against a
+weak country and in Russia the indignation which I fully share is
+tremendous. I fear that very soon I shall be unable to resist the
+pressure exercised upon me and that I shall be forced to take measures
+which will lead to war. To prevent a calamity as a European war would
+be, I urge You in the name of our old friendship to do all in Your power
+to restrain Your ally from going too far.
+
+signed: Nicolas.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 22.
+
+III. His Majesty to the Czar.
+
+July 29th, 6.30 p.m.
+
+I have received Your telegram and I share Your desire for the
+conservation of peace. However: I cannot--as I told You in my first
+telegram--consider the action of Austria-Hungary as an "ignominious
+war". Austria-Hungary knows from experience that the promises of Servia
+as long as they are merely on paper are entirely unreliable.
+
+According to my opinion the action of Austria-Hungary is to be
+considered as an attempt to receive full guaranty that the promises of
+Servia are effectively translated into deeds. In this opinion I am
+strengthened by the explanation of the Austrian cabinet that
+Austria-Hungary intended no territorial gain at the expense of Servia. I
+am therefore of opinion that it is perfectly possible for Russia to
+remain a spectator in the Austro-Servian war without drawing Europe into
+the most terrible war it has ever seen. I believe that a direct
+understanding is possible and desirable between Your Government and
+Vienna, an understanding which--as I have already telegraphed You--my
+Government endeavors to aid with all possible effort. Naturally military
+measures by Russia, which might be construed as a menace by
+Austria-Hungary, would accelerate a calamity which both of us desire to
+avoid and would undermine my position as mediator which--upon Your
+appeal to my friendship and aid--I willingly accepted.
+
+signed: Wilhelm.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 23.
+
+IV. His Majesty to the Czar.
+
+July 30th, 1 a.m.
+
+My Ambassador has instructions to direct the attention of Your
+Government to the dangers and serious consequences of a mobilization; I
+have told You the same in my last telegram. Austria-Hungary has
+mobilized only against Servia, and only a part of her army. If Russia,
+as seems to be the case according to Your advice and that of Your
+Government, mobilizes against Austria-Hungary, the part of the mediator
+with which You have entrusted me in such friendly manner and which I
+have accepted upon Your express desire, is threatened if not made
+impossible. The entire weight of decision now rests upon Your shoulders,
+You have to bear the responsibility for war or peace.
+
+signed: Wilhelm.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 23a.
+
+V. The Czar to His Majesty.
+
+Peterhof, July 30th, 1914, 1.20 p.m.
+
+I thank You from my heart for Your quick reply. I am sending to-night
+Tatisheft (Russian honorary aide to the Kaiser) with instructions. The
+military measures now taking form were decided upon five days ago, and
+for the reason of defence against the preparations of Austria. I hope
+with all my heart that these measures will not influence in any manner
+Your position as mediator which I appraise very highly. We need Your
+strong pressure upon Austria so that an understanding can be arrived at
+with us.
+
+Nicolas.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 24.
+
+Telegram of the Chancellor to the Imperial Ambassador at St. Petersburg
+on July 31st, 1914. Urgent.
+
+In spite of negotiations still pending and although we have up to this
+hour made no preparations for mobilization, Russia has mobilized her
+entire army and navy, hence also against us. On account of these Russian
+measures we have been forced, for the safety of the country, to proclaim
+the threatening state of war, which does not yet imply mobilization.
+Mobilization, however, is bound to follow if Russia does not stop every
+measure of war against us and against Austria-Hungary within 12 hours
+and notifies us definitely to this effect. Please to communicate this at
+once to M. Sasonow and wire hour of communication.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 25.
+
+Telegram of the Chancellor to the Imperial Ambassador in Paris on July
+31st, 1914. Urgent.
+
+Russia has ordered mobilization of her entire army and fleet, therefore
+also against us in spite of our still pending mediation. We have
+therefore declared the threatening state of war which is bound to be
+followed by mobilization unless Russia stops within 12 hours all
+measures of war against us and Austria. Mobilization inevitably implies
+war. Please ask French Government whether it intends to remain neutral
+in a Russo-German war. Reply must be made in 18 hours. Wire at once hour
+of inquiry. Utmost speed necessary.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 26.
+
+Telegram of the Chancellor to the Imperial Ambassador in St. Petersburg
+on August 1st, 12.52 p.m. Urgent.
+
+If the Russian Government gives no satisfactory reply to our demand,
+Your Excellency will please transmit this afternoon 5 o'clock
+(mid-European time) the following statement:
+
+"Le Gouvernement Imperial s'est efforce des les debuts de la crise de la
+mener a une solution pacifique. Se rendant a un desir que lui en avail
+ete exprime par Sa Majeste l'Empereur de Russie, Sa Majeste l'Empereur
+d'Allemagne d'accord avec l'Angleterre etait applique a accomplir un
+role mediateur aupres des Cabinets de Vienne et de St. Petersbourg,
+lorsque la Russie, sans en attendre le resultat, proceda a la
+mobilisation de la totalite de ses forces de terre et de mer.
+
+"A la suite de cette mesure menacante motivee par aucun preparatif
+militaire de la part de l'Allemagne, l'Empire Allemand se trouva
+vis-a-vis d'un danger grave et imminent. Si le Gouvernement Imperial eut
+manque de parer a ce peril il aurait compromis la securite et
+l'existence meme de l'Allemagne. Par consequent le Gouvernement Allemand
+se vit force de s'adresser au Gouvernement de Sa Majeste l'Empereur de
+toutes les Russies en sistant sur la cessation des dits actes
+militaires. La Russie ayant refuse de faire droit a cette demande et
+ayant manifeste par ce refus, que son action etait dirigee contre
+l'Allemande, j'ai l'honneur d'ordre de mon Gouvernement de faire savoir
+a Votre Excellence ce qui suit:
+
+"Sa Majeste l'Empereur, mon auguste Souverain, an nom de l'Empire releve
+le defi et Se considere en etat de guerre avec la Russie."
+
+Please wire urgent receipt and time of carrying out this instruction by
+Russian time.
+
+Please ask for Your passports and turn over protection and affairs to
+the American Embassy.
+
+
+EXHIBIT 27.
+
+Telegram of the Imperial Ambassador in Paris to the Chancellor on August
+1st 1.05 p. m.
+
+Upon my repeated definite inquiry whether France would remain neutral in
+the event of a Russo-German war, the Prime Minister declared that France
+would do that which her interests dictated.
+
+
+
+
+APPENDIX II
+
+
+EXTRACTS FROM
+
+SIR EDWARD GREY'S
+
+CORRESPONDENCE
+
+RESPECTING THE EUROPEAN
+
+CRISIS
+
+_For the complete Correspondence see White Paper Miscellaneous No. 6
+(1914) (Cd. 7467), presented to both Houses of Parliament by Command of
+His Majesty, August 1914_
+
+
+No. 13.
+
+_Note communicated by Russian Ambassador, July 25._
+
+(Translation.)
+
+M. Sazionof telegraphs to the Russian Charge d'Affaires at Vienna on the
+11th (24th) July, 1914:
+
+"The communication made by Austria-Hungary to the Powers the day after
+the presentation of the ultimatum at Belgrade leaves a period to the
+Powers which is quite insufficient to enable them to take any steps
+which might help to smooth away the difficulties that have arisen.
+
+"In order to prevent the consequences, equally incalculable and fatal to
+all the Powers, which may result from the course of action followed by
+the Austro-Hungarian Government, it seems to us to be above all
+essential that the period allowed for the Servian reply should be
+extended. Austria-Hungary, having declared her readiness to inform the
+Powers of the results of the enquiry upon which the Imperial and Royal
+Government base their accusations, should equally allow them sufficient
+time to study them.
+
+"In this case, if the Powers were convinced that certain of the Austrian
+demands were well founded, they would be in a position to offer advice
+to the Servian Government.
+
+"A refusal to prolong the term of the ultimatum would render nugatory
+the proposals made by the Austro-Hungarian Government to the Powers, and
+would be in contradiction to the very bases of international relations.
+
+"Prince Kudachef is instructed to communicate the above to the Cabinet
+at Vienna.
+
+"M. Sazonof hopes that His Britannic Majesty's Government will adhere to
+the point of view set forth above, and he trusts that Sir E. Grey will
+see his way to furnish similar instructions to the British Ambassador at
+Vienna."
+
+
+No. 17.
+
+_Sir G. Buchanan to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received July_ 25.)
+
+(Telegraphic.)      _St. Petersburgh, July_ 25, 1914.
+
+I Saw the Minister for Foreign Affairs this morning....
+
+The Minister for Foreign Affairs said that Servia was quite ready to do
+as you had suggested and to punish those proved to be guilty, but that
+no independent State could be expected to accept the political demands
+which had been put forward. The Minister for Foreign Affairs thought,
+from a conversation which he had with the Servian Minister yesterday,
+that, in the event of the Austrians attacking Servia, the Servian
+Government would abandon Belgrade, and withdraw their forces into the
+interior, while they would at the same time appeal to the Powers to help
+them. His Excellency was in favour of their making this appeal. He would
+like to see the question placed on an international footing, as the
+obligations taken by Servia in 1908, to which reference is made in the
+Austrian ultimatum, were given not to Austria, but to the Powers.
+
+If Servia should appeal to the Powers, Russia would be quite ready to
+stand aside and leave the question in the hands of England, France,
+Germany, and Italy. It was possible, in his opinion, that Servia might
+propose to submit the question to arbitration.
+
+On my expressing the earnest hope that Russia would not precipitate war
+by mobilising until you had had time to use your influence in favour of
+peace, his Excellency assured me that Russia had no aggressive
+intentions, and she would take no action until it was forced on her.
+Austria's action was in reality directed against Russia. She aimed at
+overthrowing the present _status quo_ in the Balkans, and establishing
+her own hegemony there. He did not believe that Germany really wanted
+war, but her attitude was decided by ours. If we took our stand firmly
+with France and Russia there would be no war. If we failed them now,
+rivers of blood would flow, and we would in the end be dragged into war.
+I said that England could play the role of mediator at Berlin and Vienna
+to better purpose as friend who, if her counsels of moderation were
+disregarded, might one day be converted into an ally, than if she were
+to declare herself Russia's ally at once. His Excellency said that
+unfortunately Germany was convinced that she could count upon our
+neutrality.
+
+I said all I could to impress prudence on the Minister for Foreign
+Affairs, and warned him that if Russia mobilised, Germany would not be
+content with mere mobilisation, or give Russia time to carry out hers,
+but would probably declare war at once. His Excellency replied that
+Russia could not allow Austria to crush Servia and become the
+predominant Power in the Balkans, and, if she feels secure of the
+support of France, she will face all the risks of war. He assured me
+once more that he did not wish to precipitate a conflict, but that
+unless Germany could restrain Austria I could regard the situation as
+desperate.
+
+
+No. 18.
+
+_Sir H. Rumbold to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received July 25.)_
+
+(Telegraphic.)         _Berlin, July 25, 1914._
+
+Your telegram of the 24th July acted on.
+
+Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs says that on receipt of a
+telegram at 10 this morning from German Ambassador at London, he
+immediately instructed German Ambassador at Vienna to pass on to
+Austrian Minister for Foreign Affairs your suggestion for an extension
+of time limit, and to speak to his Excellency about it. Unfortunately it
+appeared from press that Count Berchtold is at Ischl, and Secretary of
+State thought that in these circumstances there would be delay and
+difficulty in getting time limit extended. Secretary of State said that
+he did not know what Austria-Hungary had ready on the spot, but he
+admitted quite freely that Austro-Hungarian Government wished to give
+the Servians a lesson, and that they meant to take military action. He
+also admitted that Servian Government could not swallow certain of the
+Austro-Hungarian demands.
+
+Secretary of State said that a reassuring feature of situation was that
+Count Berchtold had sent for Russian representative at Vienna and had
+told him that Austria-Hungary had no intention of seizing Servian
+territory. This step should, in his opinion, exercise a calming
+influence at St. Petersburgh. I asked whether it was not to be feared
+that, in taking military action against Servia, Austria would
+dangerously excite public opinion in Russia. He said he thought not. He
+remained of opinion that crisis could be localised. I said that
+telegrams from Russia in this morning's papers did not look very
+reassuring, but he maintained his optimistic view with regard to Russia.
+He said that he had given the Russian Government to understand that last
+thing Germany wanted was a general war, and he would do all in his power
+to prevent such a calamity. If the relations between Austria and Russia
+became threatening, he was quite ready to fall in with your suggestion
+as to the four Powers working in favour of moderation at Vienna and St.
+Petersburgh.
+
+Secretary of State confessed privately that he thought the note left
+much to be desired as a diplomatic document. He repeated very earnestly
+that, though he had been accused of knowing all about the contents of
+that note, he had in fact had no such knowledge.
+
+
+No. 41.
+
+_Sir M. de Bunsen to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received July 27.)_
+
+(Telegraphic.)                      _Vienna, July_ 27, 1914.
+
+I have had conversations with all my colleagues representing the Great
+Powers. The impression left on my mind is that the Austro-Hungarian note
+was so drawn up as to make war inevitable; that the Austro-Hungarian
+Government are fully resolved to have war with Servia; that they
+consider their position as a Great Power to be at stake; and that until
+punishment has been administered to Servia it is unlikely that they will
+listen to proposals of mediation. This country has gone wild with joy at
+the prospect of war with Servia, and its postponement or prevention
+would undoubtedly be a great disappointment.
+
+I propose, subject to any special directions you desire to send me, to
+express to the Austrian Minister for Foreign Affairs the hope of His
+Majesty's Government that it may yet be possible to avoid war, and to
+ask his Excellency whether he cannot suggest a way out even now.
+
+
+No. 43.
+
+_Sir E. Goschen to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received July 27.)_
+
+(Telegraphic.)                         _Berlin, July_ 27, 1914.
+
+Your telegram of 26th July.
+
+Secretary of State says that conference you suggest would practically
+amount to a court of arbitration and could not, in his opinion, be
+called together except at the request of Austria and Russia. He could
+not therefore fall in with your suggestion, desirous though he was to
+co-operate for the maintenance of peace. I said I was sure that your
+idea had nothing to do with arbitration, but meant that representatives
+of the four nations not directly interested should discuss and suggest
+means for avoiding a dangerous situation. He maintained, however, that
+such a conference as you proposed was not practicable. He added that
+news he had just received from St. Petersburgh showed that there was an
+intention on the part of M. de Sazonof to exchange views with Count
+Berchtold. He thought that this method of procedure might lead to a
+satisfactory result, and that it would be best, before doing anything
+else, to await outcome of the exchange of views between the Austrian and
+Russian Governments.
+
+In the course of a short conversation Secretary of State said that as
+yet Austria was only partially mobilising, but that if Russia mobilised
+against Germany latter would have to follow suit. I asked him what he
+meant by "mobilising against Germany." He said that if Russia only
+mobilised in south, Germany would not mobilise, but if she mobilised in
+north, Germany would have to do so too, and Russian system of
+mobilisation was so complicated that it might be difficult exactly to
+locate her mobilisation. Germany would therefore have to be very careful
+not to be taken by surprise.
+
+Finally, Secretary of State said that news from St. Petersburgh had
+caused him to take more hopeful view of the general situation.
+
+
+No. 56.
+
+_Sir M. de Bunsen to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received July 28.)_
+
+(Telegraphic.)                      _Vienna, July_ 27, 1914.
+
+The Russian Ambassador had to-day a long and earnest conversation with
+Baron Macchio, the Under-secretary of State for Foreign Affairs. He told
+him that, having just come back from St. Petersburgh, he was well
+acquainted with the views of the Russian Government and the state of
+Russian public opinion. He could assure him that if actual war broke out
+with Servia it would be impossible to localise it, for Russia was not
+prepared to give way again, as she had done on previous occasions, and
+especially during the annexation crisis of 1909. He earnestly hoped that
+something would be done before Servia was actually invaded. Baron
+Macchio replied that this would now be difficult, as a skirmish had
+already taken place on the Danube, in which the Servians had been the
+aggressors. The Russian Ambassador said that he would do all he could to
+keep the Servians quiet pending any discussions that might yet take
+place, and he told me that he would advise his Government to induce the
+Servian Government to avoid any conflict as long as possible, and to
+fall back before an Austrian advance. Time so gained should suffice to
+enable a settlement to be reached. He had just heard of a satisfactory
+conversation which the Russian Minister for Foreign Affairs had
+yesterday with the Austrian Ambassador at St. Petersburgh. The former
+had agreed that much of the Austro-Hungarian note to Servia had been
+perfectly reasonable, and in fact they had practically reached an
+understanding as to the guarantees which Servia might reasonably be
+asked to give to Austria-Hungary for her future good behaviour. The
+Russian Ambassador urged that the Austrian Ambassador at St. Petersburgh
+should be furnished with full powers to continue discussion with the
+Russian Minister for Foreign Affairs, who was very willing to advise
+Servia to yield all that could be fairly asked of her as an independent
+Power. Baron Macchio promised to submit this suggestion to the Minister
+for Foreign Affairs.
+
+
+No. 62.
+
+_Sir M. de Bunsen to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received July 28.)_
+
+(Telegraphic.)                          _Vienna, July 28_, 1914.
+
+I spoke to Minister for Foreign Affairs to-day in the sense of your
+telegram of 27th July to Berlin. I avoided the word "mediation," but
+said that, as mentioned in your speech,[187] which he had just read to
+me, you had hopes that conversations in London between the four Powers
+less interested might yet lead to an arrangement which Austro-Hungarian
+Government would accept as satisfactory and as rendering actual
+hostilities unnecessary. I added that you had regarded Servian reply as
+having gone far to meet just demands of Austria-Hungary; that you
+thought it constituted a fair basis of discussion during which warlike
+operations might remain in abeyance, and that Austrian Ambassador in
+Berlin was speaking in this sense. Minister for Foreign Affairs said
+quietly, but firmly, that no discussion could be accepted on basis of
+Servian note; that war would be declared to-day, and that well-known
+pacific character of Emperor, as well as, he might add, his own, might
+be accepted as a guarantee that war was both just and inevitable. This
+was a matter that must be settled directly between the two parties
+immediately concerned. I said that you would hear with regret that
+hostilities could not now be arrested, as you feared that they might
+lead to complications threatening the peace of Europe.
+
+In taking leave of his Excellency, I begged him to believe that, if in
+the course of present grave crisis our point of view should sometimes
+differ from his, this would arise, not from want of sympathy with the
+many just complaints which Austria-Hungary had against Servia, but from
+the fact that, whereas Austria-Hungary put first her quarrel with
+Servia, you were anxious in the first instance for peace of Europe. I
+trusted this larger aspect of the question would appeal with equal force
+to his Excellency. He said he had it also in mind, but thought that
+Russia ought not to oppose operations like those impending, which did
+not aim at territorial aggrandisement and which could no longer be
+postponed.
+
+[Footnote 187: "Hansard," Vol. 65, No. 107, Columns 931, 932, 933.]
+
+
+No. 85.
+
+_Sir E. Goschen to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received July 29.)_
+
+(Telegraphic.)                        _Berlin, July_ 29, 1914.
+
+I was asked to call upon the Chancellor to-night. His Excellency had
+just returned from Potsdam.
+
+He said that should Austria be attacked by Russia a European
+conflagration might, he feared, become inevitable, owing to Germany's
+obligations as Austria's ally, in spite of his continued efforts to
+maintain peace. He then proceeded to make the following strong bid for
+British neutrality. He said that it was clear, so far as he was able to
+judge the main principle which governed British policy, that Great
+Britain would never stand by and allow France to be crushed in any
+conflict there might be. That, however, was not the object at which
+Germany aimed. Provided that neutrality of Great Britain were certain,
+every assurance would be given to the British Government that the
+Imperial Government aimed at no territorial acquisitions at the expense
+of France should they prove victorious in any war that might ensue.
+
+I questioned his Excellency about the French colonies, and he said that
+he was unable to give a similar undertaking in that respect. As regards
+Holland, however, his Excellency said that, so long as Germany's
+adversaries respected the integrity and neutrality of the Netherlands,
+Germany was ready to give His Majesty's Government an assurance that she
+would do likewise. It depended upon the action of France what operations
+Germany might be forced to enter upon in Belgium, but when the war was
+over, Belgian integrity would be respected if she had not sided against
+Germany.
+
+His Excellency ended by saying that ever since he had been Chancellor
+the object of his policy had been, as you were aware, to bring about an
+understanding with England; he trusted that these assurances might form
+the basis of that understanding which he so much desired. He had in mind
+a general neutrality agreement between England and Germany, though it
+was of course at the present moment too early to discuss details, and an
+assurance of British neutrality in the conflict which present crisis
+might possibly produce, would enable him to look forward to realisation
+of his desire.
+
+In reply to his Excellency's enquiry how I thought his request would
+appeal to you, I said that I did not think it probable that at this
+stage of events you would care to bind yourself to any course of action
+and that I was of opinion that you would desire to retain full liberty.
+
+Our conversation upon this subject having come to an end, I communicated
+the contents of your telegram of to-day to his Excellency, who expressed
+his best thanks to you.
+
+
+No. 87.
+
+_Sir Edward Grey to Sir F. Bertie_.
+
+Sir,                            _Foreign Office, July_ 29, 1914.
+
+After telling M. Cambon to-day how grave the situation seemed to be, I
+told him that I meant to tell the German Ambassador to-day that he must
+not be misled by the friendly tone of our conversations into any sense
+of false security that we should stand aside if all the efforts to
+preserve the peace, which we were now making in common with Germany,
+failed. But I went on to say to M. Cambon that I thought it necessary to
+tell him also that public opinion here approached the present difficulty
+from a quite different point of view from that taken during the
+difficulty as to Morocco a few years ago. In the case of Morocco the
+dispute was one in which France was primarily interested, and in which
+it appeared that Germany, in an attempt to crush France, was fastening a
+quarrel on France on a question that was the subject of a special
+agreement between France and us. In the present case the dispute between
+Austria and Servia was not one in which we felt called to take a hand.
+Even if the question became one between Austria and Russia we should not
+feel called upon to take a hand in it. It would then be a question of
+the supremacy of Teuton or Slav--a struggle for supremacy in the
+Balkans; and our idea had always been to avoid being drawn into a war
+over a Balkan question. If Germany became involved and France became
+involved, we had not made up our minds what we should do; it was a case
+that we should have to consider. France would then have been drawn into
+a quarrel which was not hers, but in which, owing to her alliance, her
+honour and interest obliged her to engage. We were free from
+engagements, and we should have to decide what British interests
+required us to do. I thought it necessary to say that, because, as he
+knew, we were taking all precautions with regard to our fleet, and I was
+about to warn Prince Lichnowsky not to count on our standing aside, but
+it would not be fair that I should let M. Cambon be misled into
+supposing that this meant that we had decided what to do in a
+contingency that I still hoped might not arise.
+
+M. Cambon said that I had explained the situation very clearly. He
+understood it to be that in a Balkan quarrel, and in a struggle for
+supremacy between Teuton and Slav we should not feel called to
+intervene; should other issues be raised, and Germany and France become
+involved, so that the question became one of the hegemony of Europe, we
+should then decide what it was necessary for us to do. He seemed quite
+prepared for this announcement, and made no criticism upon it.
+
+He said French opinion was calm, but decided. He anticipated a demand
+from Germany that France would be neutral while Germany attacked Russia.
+This assurance France, of course, could not give; she was bound to help
+Russia if Russia was attacked.
+
+I am, &c.
+
+E. GREY.
+
+
+No. 89.
+
+_Sir Edward Grey to Sir E. Goschen_.
+
+Sir,                             _Foreign Office, July_ 29, 1914.
+
+After speaking to the German Ambassador this afternoon about the
+European situation, I said that I wished to say to him, in a quite
+private and friendly way, something that was on my mind. The situation
+was very grave. While it was restricted to the issues at present
+actually involved we had no thought of interfering in it. But if Germany
+became involved in it, and then France, the issue might be so great that
+it would involve all European interests; and I did not wish him to be
+misled by the friendly tone of our conversation--which I hoped would
+continue--into thinking that we should stand aside.
+
+He said that he quite understood this, but he asked whether I meant that
+we should, under certain circumstances, intervene?
+
+I replied that I did not wish to say that, or to use anything that was
+like a threat or an attempt to apply pressure by saying that, if things
+became worse, we should intervene. There would be no question of our
+intervening if Germany was not involved, or even if France was not
+involved. But we knew very well that, if the issue did become such that
+we thought British interests required us to intervene, we must intervene
+at once, and the decision would have to be very rapid, just as the
+decisions of other Powers had to be. I hoped that the friendly tone of
+our conversations would continue as at present, and that I should be
+able to keep as closely in touch with the German Government in working
+for peace. But if we failed in our efforts to keep the peace, and if the
+issue spread so that it involved practically every European interest, I
+did not wish to be open to any reproach from him that the friendly tone
+of all our conversations had misled him or his Government into supposing
+that we should not take action, and to the reproach that, if they had
+not been so misled, the course of things might have been different.
+
+The German Ambassador took no exception to what I had said; indeed, he
+told me that it accorded with what he had already given in Berlin as his
+view of the situation.
+
+I am, &c.
+
+E. GREY.
+
+
+No. 98.
+
+_Sir E. Goschen to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received July 30.)_
+
+(Telegraphic.)                           _Berlin, July_ 30, 1914.
+
+Secretary of State informs me that immediately on receipt of Prince
+Lichnowsky's telegram recording his last conversation with you he asked
+Austro-Hungarian Government whether they would be willing to accept
+mediation on basis of occupation by Austrian troops of Belgrade or some
+other point and issue their conditions from there. He has up till now
+received no reply, but he fears Russian mobilisation against Austria
+will have increased difficulties, as Austria-Hungary, who has as yet
+only mobilised against Servia, will probably find it necessary also
+against Russia. Secretary of State says if you can succeed in getting
+Russia to agree to above basis for an arrangement and in persuading her
+in the meantime to take no steps which might be regarded as an act of
+aggression against Austria he still sees some chance that European peace
+may be preserved.
+
+He begged me to impress on you difficulty of Germany's position in view
+of Russian mobilisation and military measures which he hears are being
+taken in France. Beyond recall of officers on leave--a measure which had
+been officially taken after, and not before, visit of French Ambassador
+yesterday--Imperial Government had done nothing special in way of
+military preparations. Something, however, would have soon to be done,
+for it might be too late, and when they mobilised they would have to
+mobilise on three sides. He regretted this, as he knew France did not
+desire war, but it would be a military necessity.
+
+His Excellency added that telegram received from Prince Lichnowsky last
+night contains matter which he had heard with regret, but not exactly
+with surprise, and at all events he thoroughly appreciated frankness and
+loyalty with which you had spoken.
+
+He also told me that this telegram had only reached Berlin very late
+last night; had it been received earlier Chancellor would, of course,
+not have spoken to me in way he had done.
+
+
+No. 101.
+
+_Sir Edward Grey to Sir E. Goschen_.
+
+(Telegraphic.)                   _Foreign Office, July_ 30, 1914.
+
+Your telegram of 29th July.[188]
+
+His Majesty's Government cannot for a moment entertain the Chancellor's
+proposal that they should bind themselves to neutrality on such terms.
+
+What he asks us in effect is to engage to stand by while French colonies
+are taken and France is beaten so long as Germany does not take French
+territory as distinct from the colonies.
+
+From the material point of view such a proposal is unacceptable, for
+France, without further territory in Europe being taken from her, could
+be so crushed as to lose her position as a Great Power, and become
+subordinate to German policy.
+
+Altogether, apart from that, it would be a disgrace for us to make this
+bargain with Germany at the expense of France, a disgrace from which the
+good name of this country would never recover.
+
+The Chancellor also in effect asks us to bargain away whatever
+obligation or interest we have as regards the neutrality of Belgium. We
+could not entertain that bargain either.
+
+Having said so much, it is unnecessary to examine whether the prospect
+of a future general neutrality agreement between England and Germany
+offered positive advantages sufficient to compensate us for tying our
+hands now. We must preserve our full freedom to act as circumstances may
+seem to us to require in any such unfavourable and regrettable
+development of the present crisis as the Chancellor contemplates.
+
+You should speak to the Chancellor in the above sense, and add most
+earnestly that the one way of maintaining the good relations between
+England and Germany is that they should continue to work together to
+preserve the peace of Europe; if we succeed in this object, the mutual
+relations of Germany and England will, I believe, be _ipso facto_
+improved and strengthened. For that object His Majesty's Government will
+work in that way with all sincerity and good-will.
+
+And I will say this: If the peace of Europe can be preserved, and the
+present crisis safely passed, my own endeavour will be to promote some
+arrangement to which Germany could be a party, by which she could be
+assured that no aggressive or hostile policy would be pursued against
+her or her allies by France, Russia, and ourselves, jointly or
+separately. I have desired this and worked for it, as far as I could,
+through the last Balkan crisis, and, Germany having a corresponding
+object, our relations sensibly improved. The idea has hitherto been too
+Utopian to form the subject of definite proposals, but if this present
+crisis, so much more acute than any that Europe has gone through for
+generations, be safely passed, I am hopeful that the relief and reaction
+which will follow may make possible some more definite rapprochement
+between the Powers than has been possible hitherto.
+
+[Footnote 188: See No. 85.]
+
+
+Enclosure 1 in No. 105.
+
+_Sir Edward Grey to M. Cambon_.
+
+My dear Ambassador,          _Foreign Office, November 22_, 1912.
+
+From time to time in recent years the French and British naval and
+military experts have consulted together. It has always been understood
+that such consultation does not restrict the freedom of either
+Government to decide at any future time whether or not to assist the
+other by armed force. We have agreed that consultation between experts
+is not, and ought not to be regarded as, an engagement that commits
+either Government to action in a contingency that has not arisen and may
+never arise. The disposition, for instance, of the French and British
+fleets respectively at the present moment is not based upon an
+engagement to co-operate in war.
+
+You have, however, pointed out that, if either Government had grave
+reason to expect an unprovoked attack by a third Power, it might become
+essential to know whether it could in that event depend upon the armed
+assistance of the other.
+
+I agree that, if either Government had grave reason to expect an
+unprovoked attack by a third Power, or something that threatened the
+general peace, it should immediately discuss with the other whether both
+Governments should act together to prevent aggression and to preserve
+peace, and, if so, what measures they would be prepared to take in
+common. If these measures involved action, the plans of the General
+Staffs would at once be taken into consideration, and the Governments
+would then decide what effect should be given to them.
+
+Yours, &c.
+
+E. GREY.
+
+
+No. 119.
+
+_Sir Edward Grey to Sir F. Bertie_.
+
+Sir,                             _Foreign Office, July_ 31, 1914.
+
+M. Cambon referred to-day to a telegram that had been shown to Sir
+Arthur Nicolson this morning from the French Ambassador in Berlin,
+saying that it was the uncertainty with regard to whether we would
+intervene which was the encouraging element in Berlin, and that, it we
+would only declare definitely on the side of Russia and France, it would
+decide the German attitude in favour of peace.
+
+I said that it was quite wrong to suppose that we had left Germany under
+the impression that we would not intervene. I had refused overtures to
+promise that we should remain neutral. I had not only definitely
+declined to say that we would remain neutral, I had even gone so far
+this morning as to say to the German Ambassador that, if France and
+Germany became involved in war, we should be drawn into it. That, of
+course, was not the same thing as taking an engagement to France, and I
+told M. Cambon of it only to show that we had not left Germany under the
+impression that we would stand aside.
+
+M. Cambon then asked me for my reply to what he had said yesterday.
+
+I said that we had come to the conclusion, in the Cabinet to-day, that
+we could not give any pledge at the present time. Though we should have
+to put our policy before Parliament, we could not pledge Parliament in
+advance. Up to the present moment, we did not feel, and public opinion
+did not feel, that any treaties or obligations of this country were
+involved. Further developments might alter this situation and cause the
+Government and Parliament to take the view that intervention was
+justified. The preservation of the neutrality of Belgium might be, I
+would not say a decisive, but an important factor, in determining our
+attitude. Whether we proposed to Parliament to intervene or not to
+intervene in a war, Parliament would wish to know how we stood with
+regard to the neutrality of Belgium, and it might be that I should ask
+both France and Germany whether each was prepared to undertake an
+engagement that she would not be the first to violate the neutrality of
+Belgium.
+
+M. Cambon repeated his question whether we would help France if Germany
+made an attack on her.
+
+I said that I could only adhere to the answer that, as far as things had
+gone at present, we could not take any engagement.
+
+M. Cambon urged that Germany had from the beginning rejected proposals
+that might have made for peace. It could not be to England's interest
+that France should be crushed by Germany. We should then be in a very
+diminished position with regard to Germany. In 1870 we had made a great
+mistake in allowing an enormous increase of German strength, and we
+should now be repeating the mistake. He asked me whether I could not
+submit his question to the Cabinet again.
+
+I said that the Cabinet would certainly be summoned as soon as there was
+some new development, but at the present moment the only answer I could
+give was that we could not undertake any definite engagement.
+
+I am, &c.
+
+E. GREY.
+
+
+No. 122.
+
+_Sir E. Goschen to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received August 1.)_
+
+(Telegraphic.)                          _Berlin, July_ 31, 1914.
+
+Neutrality of Belgium, referred to in your telegram of 31st July to Sir
+F. Bertie.
+
+I have seen Secretary of State, who informs me that he must consult the
+Emperor and the Chancellor before he could possibly answer. I gathered
+from what he said that he thought any reply they might give could not
+but disclose a certain amount of their plan of campaign in the event of
+war ensuing, and he was therefore very doubtful whether they would
+return any answer at all. His Excellency, nevertheless, took note of
+your request.
+
+It appears from what he said that German Government consider that
+certain hostile acts have already been committed by Belgium. As an
+instance of this, he alleged that a consignment of corn for Germany had
+been placed under an embargo already.
+
+I hope to see his Excellency to-morrow again to discuss the matter
+further, but the prospect of obtaining a definite answer seems to me
+remote.
+
+In speaking to me to-day the Chancellor made it clear that Germany would
+in any case desire to know the reply returned to you by the French
+Government.
+
+
+No. 123.
+
+_Sir Edward Grey to Sir E. Goschen_.
+
+Sir,                            _Foreign Office, August_ 1, 1914.
+
+I told the German Ambassador to-day that the reply[189] of the German
+Government with regard to the neutrality of Belgium was a matter of very
+great regret, because the neutrality of Belgium affected feeling in this
+country. If Germany could see her way to give the same assurance as that
+which had been given by France it would materially contribute to relieve
+anxiety and tension here. On the other hand, if there were a violation
+of the neutrality of Belgium by one combatant while the other respected
+it, it would be extremely difficult to restrain public feeling in this
+country. I said that we had been discussing this question at a Cabinet
+meeting, and as I was authorised to tell him this I gave him a
+memorandum of it.
+
+He asked me whether, if Germany gave a promise not to violate Belgian
+neutrality, we would engage to remain neutral.
+
+I replied that I could not say that; our hands were still free, and we
+were considering what our attitude should be. All I could say was that
+our attitude would be determined largely by public opinion here, and
+that the neutrality of Belgium would appeal very strongly to Public
+opinion here. I did not think that we could give a promise of neutrality
+on that condition alone.
+
+The Ambassador pressed me as to whether I could not formulate conditions
+on which we would remain neutral. He even suggested that the integrity
+of France and her colonies might be guaranteed.
+
+I said that I felt obliged to refuse definitely any promise to remain
+neutral on similar terms, and I could only say that we must keep our
+hands free.
+
+I am, &c.
+
+E. GREY.
+
+[Footnote 189: See No. 122.]
+
+
+No. 133.
+
+_Sir Edward Grey to Sir E. Goschen_.
+
+(Telegraphic.)                  _Foreign Office, August_ 1, 1914.
+
+M. De Etter came to-day to communicate the contents of a telegram from
+M. Sazonof, dated the 31st July, which are as follows:--
+
+"The Austro-Hungarian Ambassador declared the readiness of his
+Government to discuss the substance of the Austrian ultimatum to Servia.
+M. Sazonof replied by expressing his satisfaction, and said it was
+desirable that the discussions should take place in London with the
+participation of the Great Powers.
+
+"M. Sazonof hoped that the British Government would assume the direction
+of these discussions. The whole of Europe would be thankful to them. It
+would be very important that Austria should meanwhile put a stop
+provisionally to her military action on Servian territory."
+
+(The above has been communicated to the six Powers.)
+
+
+No. 134.
+
+_Sir F. Bertie to Sir Edward Grey.--(Received August 1.)_
+
+(Telegraphic.)                           _Paris, August_ 1, 1914.
+
+President of the Republic has informed me that German Government were
+trying to saddle Russia with the responsibility; that it was only after
+a decree of general mobilisation had been issued in Austria that the
+Emperor of Russia ordered a general mobilisation; that, although the
+measures which the German Government have already taken are in effect a
+general mobilisation, they are not so designated; that a French general
+mobilisation will become necessary in self-defence, and that France is
+already forty-eight hours behind Germany as regards German military
+preparations; that the French troops have orders not to go nearer to the
+German frontier than a distance of 10 kilom. so as to avoid any grounds
+for accusations of provocation to Germany, whereas the German troops, on
+the other hand, are actually on the French frontier and have made
+incursions on it; that, notwithstanding mobilisations, the Emperor of
+Russia has expressed himself ready to continue his conversations with
+the German Ambassador with a view to preserving the peace; that French
+Government, whose wishes are markedly pacific, sincerely desire the
+preservation of peace and do not quite despair, even now, of its being
+possible to avoid war.
+
+
+No. 148.
+
+_Sir Edward Grey to Sir F. Bertie_.
+
+(Telegraphic.)                  _Foreign Office, August_ 2, 1914.
+
+After the Cabinet this morning I gave M. Cambon the following
+memorandum:--
+
+"I am authorised to give an assurance that, if the German fleet comes
+into the Channel or through the North Sea to undertake hostile
+operations against French coasts or shipping, the British fleet will
+give all the protection in its power.
+
+"This assurance is of course subject to the policy of His Majesty's
+Government receiving the support of Parliament, and must not be taken as
+binding His Majesty's Government to take any action until the above
+contingency of action by the German fleet takes place."
+
+I pointed out that we had very large questions and most difficult issues
+to consider, and that Government felt that they could not bind
+themselves to declare war upon Germany necessarily if war broke out
+between France and Germany to-morrow, but it was essential to the French
+Government, whose fleet had long been concentrated in the Mediterranean,
+to know how to make their dispositions with their north coast entirely
+undefended. We therefore thought it necessary to give them this
+assurance. It did not bind us to go to war with Germany unless the
+German fleet took the action indicated, but it did give a security to
+France that would enable her to settle the disposition of her own
+Mediterranean fleet.
+
+M. Cambon asked me about the violation of Luxemburg. I told him the
+doctrine on that point laid down by Lord Derby and Lord Clarendon in
+1867. He asked me what we should say about the violation of the
+neutrality of Belgium. I said that was a much more important matter; we
+were considering what statement we should make in Parliament
+to-morrow--in effect, whether we should declare violation of Belgian
+neutrality to be a _casus belli_. I told him what had been said to the
+German Ambassador on this point.
+
+
+No. 153.
+
+_Sir Edward Grey to Sir E. Goschen_.
+
+(Telegraphic.)                  _Foreign Office, August_ 4, 1914.
+
+The King of the Belgians has made an appeal to His Majesty the King for
+diplomatic intervention on behalf of Belgium in the following terms:--
+
+"Remembering the numerous proofs of your Majesty's friendship and that
+of your predecessor, and the friendly attitude of England in 1870 and
+the proof of friendship you have just given us again, I make a supreme
+appeal to the diplomatic intervention of your Majesty's Government to
+safeguard the integrity of Belgium."
+
+His Majesty's Government are also informed that the German Government
+has delivered to the Belgian Government a note proposing friendly
+neutrality entailing free passage through Belgian territory, and
+promising to maintain the independence and integrity of the kingdom and
+its possessions at the conclusion of peace, threatening in case of
+refusal to treat Belgium as an enemy. An answer was requested within
+twelve hours.
+
+We also understand that Belgium has categorically refused this as a
+flagrant violation of the law of nations.
+
+His Majesty's Government are bound to protest against this violation of
+a treaty to which Germany is a party in common with themselves, and must
+request an assurance that the demand made upon Belgium will not be
+proceeded with and that her neutrality will be respected by Germany. You
+should ask for an immediate reply.
+
+
+
+
+APPENDIX III
+
+
+Extract from the Dispatch from His Majesty's Ambassador at Berlin
+respecting the Rupture of Diplomatic Relations with the German
+Government.
+
+(Cd. 7445.)
+
+
+_Sir E. Goschen to Sir Edward Grey_.
+
+Sir,                                    _London, August_ 8, 1914.
+
+In accordance with the instructions contained in your telegram of the
+4th instant I called upon the Secretary of State that afternoon and
+enquired, in the name of His Majesty's Government, whether the Imperial
+Government would refrain from violating Belgian neutrality. Herr von
+Jagow at once replied that he was sorry to say that his answer must be
+"No," as, in consequence of the German troops having crossed the
+frontier that morning, Belgian neutrality had been already violated.
+Herr von Jagow again went into the reasons why the Imperial Government
+had been obliged to take this step, namely, that they had to advance
+into France by the quickest and easiest way, so as to be able to get
+well ahead with their operations and endeavour to strike some decisive
+blow as early as possible. It was a matter of life and death for them,
+as if they had gone by the more southern route they could not have
+hoped, in view of the paucity of roads and the strength of the
+fortresses, to have got through without formidable opposition entailing
+great loss of time. This loss of time would have meant time gained by
+the Russians for bringing up their troops to the German frontier.
+Rapidity of action was the great German asset, while that of Russia was
+an inexhaustible supply of troops. I pointed out to Herr von Jagow that
+this _fait accompli_ of the violation of the Belgian frontier rendered,
+as he would readily understand, the situation exceedingly grave, and I
+asked him whether there was not still time to draw back and avoid
+possible consequences, which both he and I would deplore. He replied
+that, for the reasons he had given me, it was now impossible for them to
+draw back.
+
+During the afternoon I received your further telegram of the same date,
+and, in compliance with the instructions therein contained, I again
+proceeded to the Imperial Foreign Office and informed the Secretary of
+State that unless the Imperial Government could give the assurance by 12
+o'clock that night that they would proceed no further with their
+violation of the Belgian frontier and stop their advance, I had been
+instructed to demand my passports and inform the Imperial Government
+that His Majesty's Government would have to take all steps in their
+power to uphold the neutrality of Belgium and the observance of a treaty
+to which Germany was as much a party as themselves.
+
+Herr von Jagow replied that to his great regret he could give no other
+answer than that which he had given me earlier in the day, namely, that
+the safety of the Empire rendered it absolutely necessary that the
+Imperial troops should advance through Belgium. I gave his Excellency a
+written summary of your telegram and, pointing out that you had
+mentioned 12 o'clock as the time when His Majesty's Government would
+expect an answer, asked him whether, in view of the terrible
+consequences which would necessarily ensue, it were not possible even at
+the last moment that their answer should be reconsidered. He replied
+that if the time given were even twenty-four hours or more, his answer
+must be the same. I said that in that case I should have to demand my
+passports. This interview took place at about 7 o'clock. In a short
+conversation which ensued Herr von Jagow expressed his poignant regret
+at the crumbling of his entire policy and that of the Chancellor, which
+had been to make friends with Great Britain and then, through Great
+Britain, to get closer to France. I said that this sudden end to my work
+in Berlin was to me also a matter of deep regret and disappointment, but
+that he must understand that under the circumstances and in view of our
+engagements, His Majesty's Government could not possibly have acted
+otherwise than they had done.
+
+I then said that I should like to go and see the Chancellor, as it might
+be, perhaps, the last time I should have an opportunity of seeing him.
+He begged me to do so. I found the Chancellor very agitated. His
+Excellency at once began a harangue, which lasted for about 20 minutes.
+He said that the step taken by His Majesty's Government was terrible to
+a degree; just for a word--"neutrality," a word which in war time had so
+often been disregarded--just for a scrap of paper Great Britain was
+going to make war on a kindred nation who desired nothing better than to
+be friends with her. All his efforts in that direction had been rendered
+useless by this last terrible step, and the policy to which, as I knew,
+he had devoted himself since his accession to office had tumbled down
+like a house of cards. What we had done was unthinkable; it was like
+striking a man from behind while he was fighting for his life against
+two assailants. He held Great Britain responsible for all the terrible
+events that might happen. I protested strongly against that statement,
+and said that, in the same way as he and Herr von Jagow wished me to
+understand that for strategical reasons it was a matter of life and
+death to Germany to advance through Belgium and violate the latter's
+neutrality, so I would wish him to understand that it was, so to speak,
+a matter of "life and death" for the honour of Great Britain that she
+should keep her solemn engagement to do her utmost to defend Belgium's
+neutrality if attacked. That solemn compact simply had to be kept, or
+what confidence could anyone have in engagements given by Great Britain
+in the future? The Chancellor said, "But at what price will that compact
+have been kept. Has the British Government thought of that?" I hinted to
+his Excellency as plainly as I could that fear of consequences could
+hardly be regarded as an excuse for breaking solemn engagements, but his
+Excellency was so excited, so evidently overcome by the news of our
+action, and so little disposed to hear reason that I refrained from
+adding fuel to the flame by further argument. As I was leaving he said
+that the blow of Great Britain joining Germany's enemies was all the
+greater that almost up to the last moment he and his Government had been
+working with us and supporting our efforts to maintain peace between
+Austria and Russia. I said that this was part of the tragedy which saw
+the two nations fall apart just at the moment when the relations between
+them had been more friendly and cordial than they had been for years.
+Unfortunately, notwithstanding our efforts to maintain peace between
+Russia and Austria, the war had spread and had brought us face to face
+with a situation which, if we held to our engagements, we could not
+possibly avoid, and which unfortunately entailed our separation from our
+late fellow-workers. He would readily understand that no one regretted
+this more than I.
+
+After this somewhat painful interview I returned to the embassy and drew
+up a telegraphic report of what had passed. This telegram was handed in
+at the Central Telegraph Office a little before 9 P.M. It was accepted
+by that office, but apparently never despatched.[190]
+
+[Footnote 190: This telegram never reached the Foreign Office.]
+
+
+
+
+APPENDIX IV
+
+
+THE CRIME OF SERAJEVO
+
+SELECTIONS FROM THE AUSTRIAN _dossier_ OF THE CRIME
+
+The following document is contained in the German Version of the German
+White Book (pp. 28-31); and though it adds little to our knowledge of
+the Austrian case against Servia, it deserves to be reprinted, as it is
+omitted altogether in the official version in English of the German
+White Book. The authorship of the document is uncertain. It has the
+appearance of an extract from a German newspaper.
+
+Aus dem oesterreich-ungarischen Material.
+
+Wien, 27. Juli. Das in der oesterreichisch-ungarischen Zirkularnote an
+die auswaertigen Botschaften in Angelegenheit des serbischen Konflikts
+erwaehnte Dossier wird heute veroeffentlicht.
+
+In diesem Memoire wird darauf hingewiesen, dass die von Serbien
+ausgegangene Bewegung, die sich zum Ziele gesetzt hat, die suedlichen
+Teile Oesterreich-Ungarns von der Monarchie loszureiszen, um sie mit
+Serbien zu einer staatlichen Einheit zu verbinden, weit zurueckgreist.
+Diese in ihren Endzielen stets gleichbleibende und nur in ihren Mitteln
+und an Intensitaet wechselnde Propaganda erreichte zur Zeit der
+Unnerionskrise ihren Hoehepunft und trat damals ossen mit ihren Tendenzen
+hervor. Waehrend einerjeits die gesamte serbische Bresse zum Kampfe gegen
+die Monarchie ausrief, bildeten sich--von anderen Propagandamitteln
+abgesehen--Ussoziationen, die diese Kaempfe vorbereiteten, unter denen
+die Harodna Odbrana an Bedeutung hervorragte. Aus einem revolutionaeren
+Komitee hervorgegangen, fonstituierte sich diese vom Belgrader
+Auswaertigen Amte voellig abhaengige Organisation unter Leitung von
+Staatsmaennern und Offizieren, darunter dem General Tantovic und dem
+ehemaligen Minister Ivanovic. Auch Major Oja Jantovic und Milan
+Pribicevic gehoeren zu diesen Gruendern. Dieser Berein hatte sich die
+Bildung und Ausruestung von Freischaren fuer den bevorstehenden Krieg
+gegen die oefterreichisch-ungarische Monarchie zum Ziele gesetzt. In
+einer dem Memoire angefuegten Anlage wird ein Auszug aus dem vom
+Zentralausschusse der Narodna Odbrana herausgegebenen Vereinsorgane
+gleichen Namens veroeffentlicht, worin in mehreren Artikeln die Taetigfelt
+und Ziele dieses Vereins ausfuehrlich dargelegt werden. Es heisst darin,
+dass zu der Hauptaufgabe der Narodna Odbrana die Verbindung mit ihren
+nahen und ferneren Bruedern jenseits der Grenze und unseren uebrigen
+Freunden in der Welt gehoeren.
+
+_Oesterreich ist als erster und groesster Feind bezeichnet_. Wie die
+Narodna Odbrana die Notwendigkeit des Kampfes mit Oesterreich predigt,
+predigt sie eine heilige Wahrheit unserer nationalen Lage. Das
+Schlusskapitel enthaelt einen Apell an die Regierung und das Volk
+Serbiens, sich mit allen Mitteln fuer den Kampf vorzubereiten, den die
+Annexion vorangezeigt hat.
+
+Das Memoire schildert nach einer Aussage eines von der Narodna Odbrana
+angeworbenen Komitatschis die damalige Taetigkeit der Narodna Odbrana,
+die eine von zwei Hauptleuten, darunter Jankovic, geleitete _Schule zur
+Ausbildung von Banden_ unterhielt, Schulen, welche von General Jankovic
+und von Hauptmann Milan Pribicevic regelmaessig inspiziert wurden. Weiter
+wurden die Komitatschis im  _Schiessen und Bombenwerfen, im Minenlegen,
+Sprengen von Eisenbahnbruecken_ usw. unterrichtet. Nach der feierlichen
+Erklaerung der Serbischen Regierung vom Jahre 1909 schien auch das Ende
+dieser Organisation gekommen zu sein. Diese Erwartungen haben sich aber
+nicht nur nicht erfuellt, sondern die Propaganda wurde durch die
+serbische Presse fortgesetzt. Das Memoire fuehrt als Beispiel die Art und
+Weise an, wie das Attentat gegen den bosnischen Landeschef Varesanin
+publizistisch verwertet wurde, indem der Attentaeter als serbischer
+Nationalheld gefeiert und seine Tat verherrlicht wurde. Diese Blaetter
+wurden nicht nur in Serbien verbreitet, sondern auch auf
+wohlorganisierten Schleichwegen in die Monarchie hineingeschmuggelt.
+
+Unter der gleichen Leitung wie bei ihrer Gruendung wurde die Narodna
+Odbrana neuerlich der zentralpunkt einer Agitation welcher der
+_Schuetzenbund mit 762 Vereinen, ein Sokolbund mit 3500 Mitgliedern, und
+verschiedene andere Vereine angehoerten_.
+
+Im Kleide eines Kulturvereins auftretend, dem nur die geistige und die
+fueoerperliche Entwickelung der Bevoelkerung Serbiens sowie deren
+materielle Kraeftigung am Herzen liegt, enthullt die Narodna Oobrana ihr
+wahres reorganisiertes Programm in vorzitiertem Auszug aus ihrem
+Vereinsorgan, in welchem "die heilige Wahrheit" gepredigt wird, dass es
+eine unerlaessliche Notwendigkeit ist, gegen Oesterreich, seinen ersten
+groessten Feind, diesen Ausrottungskampf mit Gewehr und Kanone zu fuehren,
+und das Volk mit allen Mitteln auf den Kampf vorzubereiten, zur
+Befreiung der unterworfenen Gebiete, in denen viele Millionen
+unterjochter Brueder schmachten. Die in dem Memoire zitierten Aufrufe und
+Reden aehnlichen Charakters beleuchten die vielseitige auswaertige
+Taetigkeit der Narodna Oobrana und ihrer affilierten Vereine, die in
+Vortragsreifen, in der Teilnahme an Festen von bosnischen Vereinen, bei
+denen offen Mitglieder fuer die erwaehnte serbische Vereinigung geworben
+wurden, besteht. Gegenwaertig ist noch die Untersuchung darueber im Zuge,
+dass die Sokolvereine Serbiens analoge Vereinigungen der Monarchie
+bestimmten, sich mit ihnen in einem bisher geheim gehaltenen Verbande zu
+vereinigen. Durch Vertrauensmaenner und Missionaere wurde die Aufwiegelung
+in die Kreise Erwachsener und der urteilslosen Jugend gebracht. So
+wurden von Milan Pribicewitsch ehmalige honvedoffiziere und ein
+Gendarmerieleutnant zum Verlassen des Heeresdienstes in der Monarchie
+unter bedenklichen Umstaenden verleitet. In den Schulen der
+Lehrerbildungsanstalten wurde eine weitgehende Agitation entwickelt. Der
+gewuenschte Krieg gegen die Monarchie wurde militaerisch auch insofern
+vorbereitet, als serbische Emissaere im Falle des Ausbruchs der
+Feindseligkeiten mit der Zerstoerung von Transportmitteln usw., der
+Anfachung von Revolten und Paniken betraut wurden. Alles dies wird in
+einer besonderen Beilage belegt.
+
+Das Memoire schildert ferner den Zusammenhang zwischen dieser Taetigkeit
+der Narodna Oobrana und den affilierten Organisationen mit den
+Attentaten gegen den Koeniglichen Kommissaer in Agram Cuvaj im Juli 1912,
+dem Attentat von Dojcic in Agram 1913 gegen Sterlecz und dem
+missglueckten Attentat Schaefers am 20. Mai im Aramer Theater. Es
+verbreitet sich hierauf ueber den Zusammenhang des Attentats auf den
+Thronfolger und dessen Gemahlin, ueber die Art, wie sich die Jungen schon
+in der Schule an dem Gedanken der Narodna Dobrana vergifteten und wie
+sich die Attentaeter mit Hilfe von Pribicewic und Dacic die Werkzeuge zu
+dem Attentat verschafften, wobei insbesondere die Rolle des Majors
+Tankofte dargelegt wird, der die Mordwassen lieferte, wie auch die Rolle
+eines gewissen Ciganovic, eines gewesenen Komitatschi und jetzigen
+Beamten der serbischen Eisenbahndirektion Belgrad, der schon 1909 als
+Zoegling der Bandenschule der damaligen Narodna Odbrana austauchte.
+Ferner wird die Art dargelegt, wie Bomben und Waffen unbemerkt nach
+Bosnien eingeschmuggelt wurden, die keinen Zweifel darueber laesst, dass
+dies ein wohl voerberiteter und fuer die geheimnisvollen Zwecke der
+Narodna oft begangener Schleichweg war.
+
+Eine Beilage enthaelt einen Auszug aus den Akten des Kreisgerichts in
+Serajewo ueber die Untersuchung des Attentats gegen den Erzherzog Franz
+Ferdinand und dessen Gemahlin. Danach sind Princip, Cabrinovic, Grabez,
+Crupilovic und Papovic gestaendig, in Gemeinschaft mit dem fluechtigen
+Mehmedbasic ein Komplott zur Erwordung des Erzherzogs gebildet und ihm
+zu diesen Zweck aufgelauert zu haben. Cabrinovic ist gestaendig, die
+Bombe geworfen und Gabrilo Princip das Attentat mit der Browningpistole
+ausgefuehrt zu haben. Beide Taeter gaben zu, bei der Veruebung der Tat die
+Absicht des Mordes gehabt zu haben. Die weiteren Teile der Anlage
+enthalten weitere Angaben der Beschuldigten vor dem Untersuchungsrichter
+ueber Entstehung des Komplotts, Herkunft der Bomben, welche fabrikmaessig
+hergestellt wurden, fuer millitaerische Zwecke bestimmt waren und ihrer
+Originalpackung nach aus dem serbischen Waffenlager aus Kragujevac
+stammten. Endlich gibt die Beilage Auskunft ueber den Transport der drei
+Attentaeter und der Waffen von Serbien nach Bosnien. Aus dem weiteren
+Zeugenprotokoll ergibt sich, dass ein Angehoeriger der Monarchie einige
+Tage vor dem Attentat dem oesterreichisch-ungarischen Konsulat in Belgrad
+Meldung von der Vermutung erstatten wollte, dass ein Plan zur Veruebung
+des Attentats gegen den Erzherzog waehrend dessen Anwesenheit in Bosnien
+bestehe. Dieser Mann soll nun durch Belgrader Polizeiorgane, welche ihn
+unmittelbar vor Betreten des Konsulats aus nichtigen Gruenden
+verhafteten, an der Erstattung der Meldung verhindert worden sein.
+Weiter gehe aus dem Zeugenprotokoll hervor, dass die betreffenden
+Polizeiorgane von dem geplanten Attentat Kenntnis gehabt haetten. Da
+diese Angaben noch nicht nachgeprueft sind, kann ueber deren
+Stichhaltigkeit vorlaeufig noch kein Urteil gefaellt werden. In der
+Beilage zum Memoire heisst es: Vor dem Empfangssaal des serbischen
+Kriegsministeriums befinden sich an der Wand vier allegorische Bilder,
+von denen drei Darstellungen serbischer Kriegserfolge sind, waehrend das
+vierte die Verwirklichung der monarchiefeindlichen Tendenzen Serbiens
+versinnbildlicht. Ueber einer Landschaft, die teils Gebirge (Bosnien),
+teils Ebene (Suedungarn) darstellt, geht die Zora, die Morgenroete der
+serbischen Hoffnungen, auf. Im Vordergrunde steht eine bewaffnete
+Frauengestalt, auf deren Schilde die Namen aller "noch zu befreienden
+Provinzen": Bosnien, Herzegowina, Wojwodina, Gyrmien, Dalmatien usw.
+stehen.
+
+
+
+
+APPENDIX V
+
+
+Extract from the Dispatch from His Majesty's Ambassador at Vienna
+respecting the Rupture of Diplomatic Relations with the Austro-Hungarian
+Government.
+
+(Cd. 7596)
+
+_Sir M. de Bunsen to Sir Edward Grey_.
+
+             _London, September_ 1, 1914.
+
+Sir,
+
+The rapidity of the march of events during the days which led up to the
+outbreak of the European war made it difficult, at the time, to do more
+than record their progress by telegraph. I propose now to add a few
+comments.
+
+The delivery at Belgrade on the 23rd July of the Austrian note to Servia
+was preceded by a period of absolute silence at the Ballplatz. Except
+Herr von Tchinsky, who must have been aware of the tenour, if not of the
+actual words of the note, none of my colleagues were allowed to see
+through the veil. On the 22nd and 23rd July, M. Dumaine, French
+Ambassador, had long interviews with Baron Macchio, one of the
+Under-Secretaries of State for Foreign Affairs, by whom he was left
+under the impression that the words of warning he had been instructed to
+speak to the Austro-Hungarian Government had not been unavailing, and
+that the note which was being drawn up would be found to contain nothing
+with which a self-respecting State need hesitate to comply. At the
+second of these interviews he was not even informed that the note was at
+that very moment being presented at Belgrade, or that it would be
+published in Vienna on the following morning. Count Forgach, the other
+Under-Secretary of State, had indeed been good enough to confide to me
+on the same day the true character of the note, and the fact of its
+presentation about the time we were speaking.
+
+So little had the Russian Ambassador been made aware of what was
+preparing that he actually left Vienna on a fortnight's leave of absence
+about the 20th July. He had only been absent a few days when events
+compelled him to return. It might have been supposed that Duc Avarna,
+Ambassador of the allied Italian Kingdom, which was bound to be so
+closely affected by fresh complications in the Balkans, would have been
+taken fully into the confidence of Count Berchtold during this critical
+time. In point of fact his Excellency was left completely in the dark.
+As for myself, no indication was given me by Count Berchtold of the
+impending storm, and it was from a private source that I received on the
+15th July the forecast of what was about to happen which I telegraphed
+to you the following day. It is true that during all this time the "Neue
+Freie Presse" and other leading Viennese newspapers were using language
+which pointed unmistakably to war with Servia. The official
+"Fremdenblatt", however, was more cautious, and till the note was
+published, the prevailing opinion among my colleagues was that Austria
+would shrink from courses calculated to involve her in grave European
+complications.
+
+On the 24th July the note was published in the newspapers. By common
+consent it was at once styled an ultimatum. Its integral acceptance by
+Servia was neither expected nor desired, and when, on the following
+afternoon, it was at first rumoured in Vienna that it had been
+unconditionally accepted, there was a moment of keen disappointment. The
+mistake was quickly corrected, and as soon as it was known later in the
+evening that the Servian reply had been rejected and that Baron Giesl
+had broken off relations at Belgrade, Vienna burst into a frenzy of
+delight, vast crowds parading the streets and singing patriotic songs
+till the small hours of the morning.
+
+The demonstrations were perfectly orderly, consisting for the most part
+of organised processions through the principal streets ending up at the
+Ministry of War. One or two attempts to make hostile manifestations
+against the Russian Embassy were frustrated by the strong guard of
+police which held the approaches to the principal embassies during those
+days. The demeanour of the people at Vienna, and, as I was informed, in
+many other principal cities of the Monarchy, showed plainly the
+popularity of the idea of war with Servia, and there can be no doubt
+that the small body of Austrian and Hungarian statesmen by whom this
+momentous step was adopted gauged rightly the sense, and it may even be
+said the determination, of the people, except presumably in portions of
+the provinces inhabited by the Slav races. There had been much
+disappointment in many quarters at the avoidance of war with Servia
+during the annexation crisis in 1908 and again in connection with the
+recent Balkan war. Count Berchtold's peace policy had met with little
+sympathy in the Delegation. Now the flood-gates were opened, and the
+entire people and press clamoured impatiently for immediate and condign
+punishment of the hated Servian race. The country certainly believed
+that it had before it only the alternative of subduing Servia or of
+submitting sooner or later to mutilation at her hands. But a peaceful
+solution should first have been attempted. Few seemed to reflect that
+the forcible intervention of a Great Power in the Balkans must
+inevitably call other Great Powers into the field. So just was the cause
+of Austria held to be, that it seemed to her people inconceivable that
+any country should place itself in her path, or that questions of mere
+policy or prestige should be regarded anywhere as superseding the
+necessity which had arisen to exact summary vengeance for the crime of
+Serajevo. The conviction had been expressed to me by the German
+Ambassador on the 24th July that Russia would stand aside. This feeling,
+which was also held at the Ballplatz, influenced no doubt the course of
+events, and it is deplorable that no effort should have been made to
+secure by means of diplomatic negotiations the acquiescence of Russia
+and Europe as a whole in some peaceful compromise of the Servian
+question by which Austrian fears of Servian aggression and intrigue
+might have been removed for the future. Instead of adopting this course
+the Austro-Hungarian Government resolved upon war. The inevitable
+consequence ensued. Russia replied to a partial Austrian mobilisation
+and declaration of war against Servia by a partial Russian mobilisation
+against Austria. Austria met this move by completing her own
+mobilisation, and Russia again responded with results which have passed
+into history. The fate of the proposals put forward by His Majesty's
+Government for the preservation of peace is recorded in the White Paper
+on the European Crisis[191]. On the 28th July I saw Count Berchtold and
+urged as strongly as I could that the scheme of mediation mentioned in
+your speech in the House of Commons on the previous day should be
+accepted as offering an honourable and peaceful settlement of the
+question at issue. His Excellency himself read to me a telegraphic
+report of the speech, but added that matters had gone too far; Austria
+was that day declaring war on Servia, and she could never accept the
+conference which you had suggested should take place between the less
+interested Powers on the basis of the Servian reply. This was a matter
+which must be settled directly between the two parties immediately
+concerned. I said His Majesty's Government would hear with regret that
+hostilities could not be arrested, as you feared they would lead to
+European complications. I disclaimed any British lack of sympathy with
+Austria in the matter of her legitimate grievances against Servia, and
+pointed out that, whereas Austria seemed to be making these the starting
+point of her policy, His Majesty's Government were bound to look at the
+question primarily from the point of view of the maintenance of the
+peace of Europe. In this way the two countries might easily drift apart.
+
+His Excellency said that he too was keeping the European aspect of the
+question in sight. He thought, however, that Russia would have no right
+to intervene after receiving his assurance that Austria sought no
+territorial aggrandisement. His Excellency remarked to me in the course
+of his conversation that, though he had been glad to co-operate towards
+bringing about the settlement which had resulted from the ambassadorial
+conferences in London during the Balkan crisis, he had never had much
+belief in the permanency of that settlement, which was necessarily of a
+highly artificial character, inasmuch as the interests which it sought
+to harmonise were in themselves profoundly divergent. His Excellency
+maintained a most friendly demeanour throughout the interview, but left
+no doubt in my mind as to the determination of the Austro-Hungarian
+Government to proceed with the invasion of Servia.
+
+The German Government claim to have persevered to the end in the
+endeavour to support at Vienna your successive proposals in the interest
+of peace. Herr von Tchirsky abstained from inviting my co-operation or
+that of the French and Russian Ambassadors in carrying out his
+instructions to that effect, and I had no means of knowing what response
+he was receiving from the Austro-Hungarian Government. I was, however,
+kept fully informed by M. Schebeko, the Russian Ambassador, of his own
+direct negotiations with Count Berchtold. M. Schebeko endeavoured on the
+28th July to persuade the Austro-Hungarian Government to furnish Count
+Szapary with full powers to continue at St. Petersburgh the hopeful
+conversations which had there been taking place between the latter and
+M. Sazonof. Count Berchtold refused at the time, but two days later
+(30th July), though in the meantime Russia had partially mobilised
+against Austria, he received M. Schebeko again, in a perfectly friendly
+manner, and gave his consent to the continuance of the conversations at
+St. Petersburgh. From now onwards the tension between Russia and Germany
+was much greater than between Russia and Austria. As between the latter
+an arrangement seemed almost in sight, and on the 1st August I was
+informed by M. Schebeko that Count Szapary had at last conceded the main
+point at issue by announcing to M. Sazonof that Austria would consent to
+submit to mediation the points in the note to Servia which seemed
+incompatible with the maintenance of Servian independence. M. Sazonof,
+M. Schebeko added, had accepted this proposal on condition that Austria
+would refrain from the actual invasion of Servia. Austria, in fact, had
+finally yielded, and that she herself had at this point good hopes of a
+peaceful issue is shown by the communication made to you on the 1st
+August by Count Mensdorff, to the effect that Austria had neither
+"banged the door" on compromise nor cut off the conversations.[192] M.
+Schebeko to the end was working hard for peace. He was holding the most
+conciliatory language to Count Berchtold, and he informed me that the
+latter, as well as Count Forgach, had responded in the same spirit.
+Certainly it was too much for Russia to expect that Austria would hold
+back her armies, but this matter could probably have been settled by
+negotiation, and M. Schebeko repeatedly told me he was prepared to
+accept any reasonable compromise.
+
+Unfortunately these conversations at St. Petersburgh and Vienna were cut
+short by the transfer of the dispute to the more dangerous ground of a
+direct conflict between Germany and Russia. Germany intervened on the
+31st July by means of her double ultimatums to St. Petersburgh and
+Paris. The ultimatums were of a kind to which only one answer is
+possible, and Germany declared war on Russia on the 1st August, and on
+France on the 3rd August. A few days' delay might in all probability
+have saved Europe from one of the greatest calamities in history.
+
+Russia still abstained from attacking Austria, and M. Schebeko had been
+instructed to remain at his post till war should actually be declared
+against her by the Austro-Hungarian Government. This only happened on
+the 6th August when Count Berchtold informed the foreign missions at
+Vienna that "the Austro-Hungarian Ambassador at St. Petersburgh had been
+instructed to notify the Russian Government that, in view of the
+menacing attitude of Russia in the Austro-Servian conflict and the fact
+that Russia had commenced hostilities against Germany, Austria-Hungary
+considered herself also at war with Russia."
+
+M. Schebeko left quietly in a special train provided by the
+Austro-Hungarian Government on the 7th September. He had urgently
+requested to be conveyed to the Roumanian frontier, so that he might be
+able to proceed to his own country, but was taken instead to the Swiss
+frontier, and ten days later I found him at Berne.
+
+M. Dumaine, French Ambassador, stayed on till the 12th August. On the
+previous day he had been instructed to demand his passport on the ground
+that Austrian troops were being employed against France. This point was
+not fully cleared up when I left Vienna. On the 9th August, M. Dumaine
+had received from Count Berchtold the categorical declaration that no
+Austrian troops were being moved to Alsace. The next day this statement
+was supplemented by a further one, in writing, giving Count Berchtold's
+assurance that not only had no Austrian troops been moved actually to
+the French frontier, but that none were moving from Austria in a
+westerly direction into Germany in such a way that they might replace
+German troops employed at the front. These two statements were made by
+Count Berchtold in reply to precise questions put to him by M. Dumaine,
+under instructions from his Government. The French Ambassador's
+departure was not attended by any hostile demonstration, but his
+Excellency before leaving had been justly offended by a harangue made by
+the Chief Burgomaster of Vienna to the crowd assembled before the steps
+of the town hall, in which he assured the people that Paris was in the
+throes of a revolution, and that the President of the Republic had been
+assassinated.
+
+The British declaration of war on Germany was made known in Vienna by
+special editions of the newspapers about midday on the 5th August. An
+abstract of your speeches in the House of Commons, and also of the
+German Chancellor's speech in the Reichstag of the 4th April, appeared
+the same day, as well as the text of the German ultimatum to Belgium.
+Otherwise few details of the great events of these days transpired. The
+"Neue Freie Presse" was violently insulting towards England. The
+"Fremdenblatt" was not offensive, but little or nothing was said in the
+columns of any Vienna paper to explain that the violation of Belgian
+neutrality had left His Majesty's Government no alternative but to take
+part in the war.
+
+The declaration of Italian neutrality was bitterly felt in Vienna, but
+scarcely mentioned in the newspapers.
+
+On the 5th August I had the honour to receive your instruction of the
+previous day preparing me for the immediate outbreak of war with
+Germany, but adding that, Austria being understood to be not yet at that
+date at war with Russia and France, you did not desire me to ask for my
+passport or to make any particular communication to the Austro-Hungarian
+Government. You stated at the same time that His Majesty's Government of
+course expected Austria not to commit any act of war against us without
+the notice required by diplomatic usage.
+
+On Thursday morning, the 13th August, I had the honour to receive your
+telegram of the 12th, stating that you had been compelled to inform
+Count Mensdorff, at the request of the French Government, that a
+complete rupture had occurred between France and Austria, on the ground
+that Austria had declared war on Russia who was already fighting on the
+side of France, and that Austria had sent troops to the German frontier
+under conditions that were a direct menace to France. The rupture having
+been brought about with France in this way, I was to ask for my
+passport, and your telegram stated, in conclusion, that you had informed
+Count Mensdorff that a state of war would exist between the two
+countries from midnight of the 12th August.
+
+After seeing Mr. Penfield, the United States Ambassador, who accepted
+immediately in the most friendly spirit my request that his Excellency
+would take charge provisionally of British interests in Austria-Hungary
+during the unfortunate interruption of relations, I proceeded, with Mr.
+Theo Russell, Counsellor of His Majesty's Embassy, to the Ballplatz.
+Count Berchtold received me at midday. I delivered my message, for which
+his Excellency did not seem to be unprepared, although he told me that a
+long telegram from Count Mensdorff had just come in but had not yet been
+brought to him. His Excellency received my communication with the
+courtesy which never leaves him. He deplored the unhappy complications
+which were drawing such good friends as Austria and England into war. In
+point of fact, he added, Austria did not consider herself then at war
+with France, though diplomatic relations with that country had been
+broken off. I explained in a few words how circumstances had forced this
+unwelcome conflict upon us. We both avoided useless argument...
+
+[Footnote 191: "Miscellaneous, No. 6 (1914)."]
+
+[Footnote 192: See No. 137, "Miscellaneous, No. 6 (1914)."]
+
+
+
+
+APPENDIX VI
+
+
+EXTRACTS FROM
+
+THE RUSSIAN ORANGE BOOK
+
+_Recueil de Documents Diplomatiques_:
+
+_Negociations ayant precede la guerre_
+
+_10/23 Juillet--24 Juillet/6 Aout 1914_
+
+PREFATORY NOTE TO APPENDIX VI
+
+This important collection of documents, which has only reached us since
+the publication of our first edition, confirms the conclusion, which we
+had deduced from other evidence in our fifth chapter (_supra_, pp.
+66-107), that Germany consistently placed obstacles in the way of any
+proposals for a peaceful settlement, and this in spite of the
+willingness of all the other Powers, including Austria-Hungary and
+Russia, to continue discussion of the Servian question. That the crisis
+took Russia by surprise seems evident from the fact that her ambassadors
+accredited to France, Berlin, and Vienna were not at their posts when
+friction began with Russia. (_Infra_, Nos. 4, 7, 8.)
+
+The Russian evidence shows that, on July 29, Germany threatened to
+mobilize if Russia did not desist from military preparations. This
+threat was viewed by M. Sazonof as an additional reason for taking all
+precautions; 'since we cannot accede to Germany's desire, the only
+course open to us is to accelerate our own preparations and to assume
+that war is probably inevitable.' (_Infra_, No. 58.) The reader will
+also notice the curious fact that on July 30 the decree mobilizing the
+German army and navy was published, only to be immediately withdrawn;
+and that the German Government explained that the publication had been
+premature and accidental. (_Infra_, Nos. 61, 62.) We know from the
+British White Book (_Correspondence_, No. 99, Sir F. Bertie to Sir E.
+Grey, July 30) that, on July 30, Germany showed signs of weakening in
+her attitude to Russia.
+
+It will be noted that war between Austria-Hungary and Russia was not
+officially declared until August 6, five days after Germany had declared
+war on Russia. (_Infra_, No. 79.)
+
+In Nos. 36 and 46 will be found some curious details of the methods
+employed by Austria-Hungary and Germany to delay the publication of the
+Servian reply to Austria-Hungary.
+
+MINISTERE DES AFFAIRES ETRANGERES.
+
+
+RECUEIL
+
+DE DOCUMENTS DIPLOMATIQUES.
+
+
+
+Negociations ayant precede la guerre.
+
+10/23 Juillet--24 Juillet/6 Aout 1914.
+
+
+
+
+Petrograde,
+Imprimerie de l'Etat.
+1914.
+
+
+No. 1.
+
+Le Charge d'affaires en Serbie au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+(_Telegramme_).
+
+Belgrade, le 10/23 Juillet 1914.
+
+Le Ministre d'Autriche vient de transmettre, a 6 heures du soir, an
+Ministre des Finances Patchou, qui remplace Pachitch, une note
+ultimative de son Gouvernement fixant un delai de 48 heures pour
+l'acceptation des demandes y contenues. Giesl a ajoute verbalement que
+pour le cas ou la note ne serait pas acceptee integralement dans un
+delai de 48 heures, il avait l'ordre de quitter Belgrade avec le
+personnel de la Legation. Pachitch et les autres Ministres qui se
+trouvent en tournee electorale ont ete rappeles et sont attendus a
+Belgrade demain Vendredi a 10 heures du matin. Patchou qui m'a
+communique le contenu de la note, sollicite l'aide de la Russie et
+declare qu'aucun Gouvernement Serbe ne pourra accepter les demandes de
+l'Autriche.
+
+(Signe) Strandtman.
+
+
+No. 2.
+
+Le Charge d'affaires en Serbie au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._
+
+Belgrade, le 10/23 Juillet 1914.
+
+Texte de la note qui a ete transmise aujourd'hui par le Ministre
+d'Autriche-Hongrie an gouvernement Serbe:...
+
+(_For this note, see German White Book, pp. 18-22_ (supra _in Appendix
+I._))
+
+Un memoire concernant les resultats de l'instruction de Sarajevo a
+l'egard des fonctionnaires mentionnes aux points 7 et 8 est annexe a
+cette note'.[193]
+
+(Signe) Strandtman.
+
+[Footnote 193: This memorandum is in the German White Book, pp. 22-3
+(_supra_, Appendix I), and not reproduced in the Russian Orange Book.]
+
+
+No. 3.
+
+Note Verbale transmise personnellement par l'Ambassadeur
+d'Autriche-Hongrie a St.-Petersbourg au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres
+le 11/24 Juillet 1914 a 10 heures du matin.
+
+Le Gouvernement Imperial et Royal s'est trouve dans la necessite de
+remettre le Jeudi 10/23 du mois courant, par l'entremise du Ministre
+Imperial et Royal a Belgrade, la note suivante an Gouvernement Royal de
+Serbie:
+
+(Suit le texte de la note).
+
+Voir document No. 2.
+
+
+No. 4.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres au Charge d'affaires en
+Autriche-Hongrie.
+
+_(Telegramme)._
+
+St.-Petersbourg, le 11/24 Juillet 1914.
+
+Veuillez transmettre au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres
+d'Autriche-Hongrie ce qui suit....
+
+(This communication is printed in the British White Book
+(_Correspondence_, No. 13); see p. 177 _supra_ for the text in English.)
+
+Communique a Londres, Rome, Paris, Belgrade.
+
+(Signe) Sazonow.
+
+
+No. 5.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres aux Representants de Sa Majeste
+l'Empereur en Angleterre, en Allemagne, en Italie et en France.
+
+_(Telegramme)._
+
+St.-Petersbourg, le 11/24 Juillet 1914.
+
+Me refere a mon telegramme a Koudachew d'aujourd'hui; nous esperons que
+le Gouvernement aupres duquel. Vous etes accredite partagera notre point
+de vue et prescrira d'urgence a son Representant a Vienne de se
+prononcer dans le meme sens.
+
+Communique a Belgrade.
+
+(Signe) Sazonow.
+
+
+No. 6.
+
+Telegramme de Son Altesse Royale le Prince Regent de Serbie a Sa Majeste
+l'Empereur.
+
+Belgrade, le 11/24 Juillet 1914.
+
+Le Gouvernement Austro-Hongrois a remis hier soir au Gouvernement serbe
+une note concernant l'attentat de Sarajevo. Consciente de ses devoirs
+internationaux, la Serbie des les premiers jours de l'horrible crime a
+declare qu'elle le condamnait et qu'elle etait prete a ouvrir une
+enquete sur son territoire si la complicite de certains de ses sujets
+etait prouvee au cours du proces instruit par les autorites
+Austro-hongroises. Cependant les demandes contenues dans la note
+Austro-hongroise sont inutilement humiliantes pour la Serbie et
+incompatibles avec sa dignite comme Etat independant. Ainsi on nous
+demande sur un ton peremptoire une declaration du gouvernement dans
+l'officiel et un ordre du souverain a l'armee, ou nous reprimerions
+l'esprit hostile contre l'Autriche en nous faisant a nous memes des
+reproches d'une faiblesse criminelle envers nos menees perfides.--On
+nous impose ensuite l'admission des fonctionnaires austro-hongrois en
+Serbie pour participer avec les notres a l'instruction et pour
+surveiller l'execution des autres conditions indiquees dans la note.
+Nous avons recu un delai de 48 heures pour accepter le tout, faute de
+quoi la Legation d'Autriche-Hongrie quittera Belgrade. Nous sommes prets
+a accepter les conditions austro-hongroises qui sont compatibles avec la
+situation d'un Etat independant, ainsi que celles dont l'acception nous
+sera conseillee par Votre Majeste; toutes les personnes dont la
+participation a l'attentat sera demontree seront severement punis par
+nous. Certaines parmi ces demandes ne pourraient etre executees sans des
+changements de notre legislation, ce qui exige du temps. On nous a donne
+un delai trop court. Nous pouvons etre attaques apres l'expiration du
+delai par l'armee austro-hongroise qui se concentre sur notre frontiere.
+Il nous est impossible de nous defendre et nous supplions Votre Majeste
+de nous donner Son aide le plus tot possible. La bienveillance precieuse
+de Votre Majeste qui s'est manifestee tant de fois a notre egard nous
+fait esperer fermement que cette fois encore notre appel sera entendu
+par Son genereux coeur slave.
+
+En ces moments difficiles l'interprete les sentiments du peuple serbe
+qui supplie Votre Majeste de vouloir bien s'interesser au sort du
+Royaume de Serbie.
+
+(Signe) Alexandre.
+
+
+No. 7.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en Allemagne au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._
+
+Berlin, le 11/24 Juillet 1914.
+
+Tous les journaux du matin, meme ceux, rares, qui reconnaissent
+l'impossibilite pour la Serbie d'accepter les conditions posees,
+accueillent avec une grande sympathie le ton energique adopte par
+l'Autriche. L'officieux "Local-Anzeiger" est particulierement agressif;
+il qualifie de superflus les recours eventuels de la Serbie a St.
+Petersbourg, a Paris, a Athenes et a Bucarest, et termine en disant que
+le peuple allemand respirera librement quand il aura appris que la
+situation dans la peninsule Balcanique va enfin s'eclaircir.
+
+(Signe) Bronewsky.
+
+
+No. 8.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en France an Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Paris, le 11/24 Juillet 1914.
+
+La copie de la note officiellement remise a Belgrade a ete communiquee
+par l'Ambassadeur d'Autriche an Gouvernement Francais. Plus tard
+l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne a visite le Ministre et lui a lu une
+communication reproduisant les arguments autrichiens et indiquant qu'en
+cas de refus de la part de la Serbie, l'Autriche serait obligee de
+recourir a une pression et, en cas de besoin, a des mesures militaires;
+la communication se terminait par la remarque qu'a l'avis de l'Allemagne
+cette question devrait etre resolue directement entre l'Autriche et la
+Serbie et qu'il etait de l'interet des Puissances de circonscrire
+l'affaire en l'abandonnant aux Parties interessees. Le Gerant du
+Departement Politique, qui assistait a l'entretien, demanda a
+l'Ambassadeur s'il fallait considerer l'action autrichienne comme un
+ultimatum--en d'autres termes, si, dans le cas ou la Serbie ne se
+soumettrait pas entierement aux demandes autrichiennes, les hostilites
+etaient inevitables? L'ambassadeur evita une reponse directe en
+alleguant l'absence d'instructions.
+
+(Signe) Sevastopoulo.
+
+
+No. 9.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en Serbie au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Belgrade, le 11/24 Juillet 1914.
+
+Pachitch est rentre a Belgrade. Il a l'intention de donner dans le delai
+fixe, c'est a dire demain Samedi a 6 heures du soir, une reponse a
+l'Autriche indiquant les points acceptables et inacceptables. On
+adressera aujourd'hui meme aux Puissances la priere de defendre
+l'independance de la Serbie. Ensuite, ajouta Pachitch, si la guerre est
+inevitable--nous ferons la guerre.
+
+(Signe) Strandtman.
+
+
+No. 10.
+
+Communique du Gouvernement Imperial.
+
+St.-Petersbourg, le 12/25 Juillet 1914.
+
+Les derniers evenements et l'envoi par l'Autriche-Hongrie d'un ultimatum
+a la Serbie preoccupent le Gouvernement Imperial an plus haut degre. Le
+Gouvernement suit attentivement l'evolution du conflit serbo-autrichien
+qui ne peut pas laisser la Russie indifferente.
+
+
+No. 11.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en Autriche-Hongrie au Ministre des Affaires
+Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Vienne, le 12/25 Juillet 1914.
+
+Le comte Berchtold se trouve a Ischl. Vu l'impossibilite d'y arriver a
+temps, je lui ai telegraphie notre proposition de prolonger le delai de
+l'ultimatum et l'ai repetee verbalement au Baron Macchio. Ce dernier m'a
+promis de la communiquer a temps au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres,
+mais a ajoute qu'il pouvait predire avec assurance un refus categorique.
+
+(Signe) Koudachew.
+
+
+No. 12.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en Autriche-Hongrie an Ministre des Affaires
+Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Vienne, le 12/25 Juillet 1914.
+
+Suite a mon telegramme d'aujourd'hui. Viens de recevoir de Macchio la
+reponse negative du Gouvernement Austro-Hongrois a notre proposition de
+prolonger le delai de la note.
+
+(Signe) Koudachew.
+
+
+No. 13.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en Serbie an Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Belgrade, le 12/25 Juillet 1914.
+
+Recu avec retard le 14--27 Juillet 1914.
+
+Je transmets la reponse que le President du Conseil des Ministres Serbe
+a remis an ministre Austro-Hongrois a Belgrade aujourd'hui avant
+l'expiration du delai de l'ultimatum....
+
+(The text of the reply will be found in the British White Book
+(_Correspondence_, No. 39) and also in the German White Book, pp. 23-32
+(supra, Appendix I.).)
+
+
+No. 14.
+
+Le Charge d'affaires en Allemagne au Ministre des affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Berlin, le 12/25 Juillet 1914.
+
+Ai recu Votre telegramme du 11/24 Juillet. Ai communique son contenu an
+Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres. Il me dit que le Gouvernement Anglais
+l'a egalement prie de conseiller a Vienne la prolongation du delai de
+l'ultimatum; il a communique cette demarche telegraphiquement a Vienne,
+il va en faire autant pour notre demarche, mais il craint qu'a la suite
+de l'absence de Berchtold parti pour Ischl, et vu le manque de temps,
+ses telegrammes ne restent sans resultats; il a, en outre, des doutes
+sur l'opportunite pour l'Autriche de ceder an dernier moment et il se
+demande si cela ne pouvait pas augmenter l'assurance de la Serbie. J'ai
+repondu qu'une grande Puissance comme l'Autriche pourrait ceder sans
+porter atteinte a son prestige et ai fait valoir tous les arguments
+conformes, cependant je n'ai pu obtenir des promesses plus precises.
+Meme lorsque je laissais entendre qu'il fallait agir a Vienne pour
+eviter la possibilite de consequences redoutables, le Ministre des
+Affaires Etrangeres repondait chaque fois negativement.
+
+(Signe) Bronewsky.
+
+
+No. 15.
+
+Le Charge d'affaires en France an Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+(_Telegramme_). Paris, le 12/25 Juillet 1914.
+
+Ai recu le telegramme du 11/24 Juillet concernant la prolongation du
+delai de l'ultimatum autrichien et ai fait la communication prescrite.
+Le Representant de France a Vienne a ete muni d'instructions conformes.
+
+(Signe) Sevastopoulo.
+
+
+No. 16.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Angleterre an Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+(_Telegramme_). Londres, le 12/25 Juillet 1914.
+
+Recu telegramme du 11 Juillet. Grey a prescrit a l'Ambassadeur
+d'Angleterre a Vienne d'appuyer notre demarche concernant la
+prolongation du delai de l'ultimatum. Il m'a dit en meme temps que
+l'Ambassadeur d'Autriche etait venu le voir et avait explique qu'on ne
+devrait pas attribuer a la note autrichienne le caractere d'un
+ultimatum; il faudrait la considerer comme une demarche qui, en cas
+d'absence de reponse ou en cas de reponse insuffisante au terme fixe,
+aurait comme suite la rupture des relations diplomatiques et le depart
+immediat de Belgrade du Ministre d'Autriche-Hongrie, sans entrainer
+cependant le commencement immediat des hostilites.--Grey a ajoute qu'a
+la suite de cette explication il a indique a l'Ambassadeur d'Angleterre
+a Vienne que dans le cas ou il serait trop tard pour soulever la
+question de la prolongation du delai de l'ultimatum, celle de l'arret
+des hostilites pourrait peut-etre servir de base a la discussion.
+
+(Signe) Benckendorff.
+
+
+No. 17.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres a l'Ambassadeur a Londres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ St.-Petersbourg, le 12/25 Juillet 1914.
+
+Dans le cas d'une nouvelle aggravation de la situation, pouvant
+provoquer de la part des Grandes Puissances des actions conformes, nous
+comptons que l'Angleterre ne tardera pas de se ranger nettement du cote
+de la Russie et de la France, en vue de maintenir l'equilibre europeen,
+en faveur duquel elle est intervenue constamment dans le passe et qui
+serait sans aucun doute compromis dans le cas du triomphe de l'Autriche.
+
+(Signe) Sazonow.
+
+
+No. 18.
+
+Note verbale remise par l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne au Ministre des
+Affaires Etrangeres le 12/25 Juillet 1914.
+
+Il nous revient de source autoritative que la nouvelle repandue par
+quelques journaux d'apres laquelle la demarche du Gouvernement
+d'Autriche-Hongrie a Belgrade aurait ete faite a l'instigation de
+l'Allemagne est absolument fausse. Le Gouvernement Allemand n'a pas eu
+connaissance du texte de la note Autrichienne avant qu'elle ait ete
+remise et n'a exerce aucune influence sur son contenu. C'est a tort
+qu'on attribue a l'Allemagne une attitude comminatoire.
+
+L'Allemagne appuie naturellement comme allie de l'Autriche les
+revendications a son avis legitimes du Cabinet de Vienne contre la
+Serbie.
+
+Avant tout elle desire comme elle l'a deja declare des le commencement
+du differend Austro-Serbe que ce conflit reste localise.
+
+
+No. 19.
+
+Le Charge d'affaires en France an Ministre des affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)_ Paris, le 12/25 Juillet 1914.
+
+Me refere a mon telegramme du 11/24 Juillet.
+
+Aujourd'hui un journal du matin a publie, sous une forme pas entierement
+exacte, les declarations d'hier de l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne, en les
+faisant suivre de commentaires qui attribuent a cette demarche le
+caractere d'une menace. L'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne, tres impressionne par
+ces divulgations, a visite aujourd'hui le Gerant du Departement
+Politique pour lui dire que ses paroles n'avaient nullement eu le
+caractere de menace qu'on leur attribue. Il a declare que l'Autriche
+avait presente sa note a la Serbie sans entente precise avec Berlin,
+mais que cependant l'Allemagne approuvait le point de vue de l'Autriche
+et que certainement 'la fleche une fois partie' (ce sont la ses propres
+paroles), l'Allemagne ne pouvait se laisser guider que par ses devoirs
+d'alliee.
+
+(Signe) Sevastopoulo.
+
+
+No. 20.
+
+L'ambassadeur en Angleterre au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Londres, le 12/25 Juillet 1914.
+
+Grey m'a dit que l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne lui a declare que le
+Gouvernement Allemand n'avait pas ete informe du texte de la note
+autrichienne, mais qu'il soutenait entierement la demarche autrichienne.
+L'Ambassadeur a demande en meme temps si l'Angleterre pouvait consentir
+a agir a St. Petersbourg dans un esprit de conciliation. Grey a repondu
+que cela etait completement impossible. Le Ministre a ajoute que tant
+que les complications n'existaient qu'entre l'Autriche et la Serbie, les
+interets Anglais n'etaient engages qu'indirectement, mais qu'il devait
+prevoir que la mobilisation autrichienne aurait comme suite la
+mobilisation de la Russie et que des ce moment on se trouverait en
+presence d'une situation a laquelle seraient interessees toutes les
+Puissances. L'Angleterre se reservait pour ce cas une complete liberte
+d'action.
+
+(Signe) Benckendorff.
+
+
+No. 21.
+
+Le Charge d'affaires en Serbie an Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Belgrade, le 12/25 Juillet 1914.
+
+Malgre le caractere extremement conciliant de la reponse serbe a
+l'ultimatum, le Ministre d'Autriche vient d'informer, a 6-1/2 du soir,
+le Gouvernement Serbe par note, que n'ayant pas recu an delai fixe une
+reponse satisfaisante il quitte Belgrade avec tout le personnel de la
+Legation. La Scoupchtina est convoquee a Nich pour le 14/27 Juillet. Le
+Gouvernement Serbe et le Corps Diplomatique partent ce soir pour la meme
+ville.
+
+(Signe) Strandtman.
+
+
+No. 22.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Angleterre an Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Londres, le 12/25 Juillet 1914.
+
+Grey a dit a l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne qu'a son avis la mobilisation
+autrichienne devait entrainer la mobilisation de la Russie, qu'alors
+surgirait le danger aigu d'une guerre generale et qu'il ne voyait qu'un
+seul moyen pour une solution pacifique: qu'en presence des mobilisations
+autrichienne et russe, l'Allemagne, la France, l'Italie et l'Angleterre
+s'abstiennent d'une mobilisation immediate et proposent tout d'abord
+leurs bons offices. Grey m'a dit que ce plan necessitait avant tout
+l'agrement de l'Allemagne et l'engagement de cette Puissance de ne pas
+mobiliser. En consequence il a adresse tout d'abord a Berlin une
+question a ce sujet.
+
+(Signe) Benckendorff.
+
+
+No. 23.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres a l'Ambassadeur en Italie.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ St. Petersbourg, le 13/26 Juillet 1914.
+
+L'Italie pourrait jouer un role de tout premier ordre en faveur du
+maintien de la paix, en exercant l'influence necessaire sur l'Autriche
+et en adoptant une attitude nettement defavorable au conflit, car ce
+dernier ne saurait etre localise. Il est desirable que vous exprimiez la
+conviction qu'il est impossible pour la Russie de ne pas venir en aide a
+la Serbie.
+
+(Signe) Sazonow.
+
+
+No. 24.
+
+Le Gerant du Consulat a Prague au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Prague, le 13/26 Juillet 1914.
+
+La mobilisation a ete decretee.
+
+(Signe) Kazansky.
+
+
+No. 25.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres a l'Ambassadeur en Autriche-Hongrie.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ St. Petersbourg, le 13/26 Juillet 1914.
+
+J'ai eu aujourd'hui un long entretien sur un ton amical avec
+l'Ambassadeur d'Autriche-Hongrie. Apres avoir examine avec lui les 10
+demandes adressees a la Serbie, j'ai fait observer qu'a part la forme
+peu habile sous laquelle elles sont presentees, quelques-unes parmi
+elles sont absolument inexecutables, meme dans le cas ou le gouvernement
+Serbe declarerait les vouloir accepter. Ainsi, par exemple, les points 1
+et 2 ne pourraient etre executes sans un remaniement des lois serbes sur
+la presse et sur les associations, pour lequel le consentement de la
+Scoupchtina pourrait etre difficilement obtenu; quant a l'execution des
+points 4 et 5, elle pourrait produire des consequences fort dangereuses
+et meme faire naitre le danger d'actes de terrorisme diriges contre les
+membres de la Maison Royale et contre Pachitch, ce qui ne saurait entrer
+dans les vues de l'Autriche. En ce qui regarde les autres points, il me
+semble, qu'avec certains changements dans les details, il ne serait pas
+difficile de trouver un terrain d'entente si les accusations y contenues
+etaient confirmees par des preuves suffisantes.
+
+Dans l'interet de la conservation de la paix qui, aux dires de Szapary,
+est precieuse a l'Autriche au meme degre qu'a toutes les Puissances, il
+serait necessaire de mettre au plus tot possible une fin a la situation
+tendue du moment. Dans ce but il me semblerait tres desirable que
+l'Ambassadeur d'Autriche-Hongrie fut autorise d'entrer avec moi dans un
+echange de vues prive aux fins d'un remaniement en commun de quelques
+articles de la note autrichienne du 10/23 Juillet. Ce procede
+permettrait peut-etre de trouver une formule qui fut acceptable pour la
+Serbie, tout en donnant satisfaction a l'Autriche quant au fond de ses
+demandes. Veuillez avoir une explication prudente et amicale dans le
+sens de ce telegramme avec le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+Communique aux Ambassadeurs en Allemagne, en France, en Angleterre et en
+Italie.
+
+(Signe) Sazonow.
+
+
+No. 26.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres a l'Ambassadeur en Allemagne.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ St. Petersbourg, le 13/26 Juillet.
+
+Veuillez communiquer le contenu de mon telegramme a Vienne d'aujourd'hui
+au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres Allemand et lui exprimer l'espoir,
+que de son cote il trouvera possible de conseiller a Vienne d'aller
+au-devant de notre proposition.
+
+(Signe) Sazonow.
+
+
+No. 27.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en France au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Paris, le 13/26 Juillet 1914.
+
+Le Directeur du Departement Politique m'informe, que lors de la
+communication qu'il a faite a l'Ambassadeur d'Autriche du contenu de la
+reponse serbe a l'ultimatum, l'Ambassadeur n'a pas cache son etonnement
+de ce qu'elle n'ait pas donne satisfaction a Giesl. L'attitude
+conciliante de la Serbie doit, selon l'avis du Directeur du Departement
+Politique, produire la meilleure impression en Europe.
+
+(Signe) Sevastopoulo.
+
+
+No. 28.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en France an Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+(_Telegramme_). Paris, le 13/26 Juillet 1914.
+
+Aujourd'hui l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne a de nouveau rendu visite au
+Gerant du Ministere des Affaires Etrangeres et lui a fait les
+declarations suivantes:
+
+"L'Autriche a declare a la Russie qu'elle ne recherche pas des
+acquisitions territoriales et qu'elle ne menace pas l'integrite de la
+Serbie. Son but unique est d'assurer sa propre tranquillite. Par
+consequent il depend de la Russie d'eviter la guerre. L'Allemagne se
+sent solidaire avec la France dans le desir ardent de conserver la paix
+et espere fermement que la France usera de son influence a Petersbourg
+dans un sens moderateur". Le Ministre fit observer que l'Allemagne
+pourrait de son cote entreprendre des demarches analogues a Vienne,
+surtout en presence de l'esprit de conciliation dont a fait preuve la
+Serbie. L'Ambassadeur repondit que cela n'etait pas possible, vu la
+resolution prise de ne pas s'immiscer dans le conflit austro-serbe.
+Alors le Ministre demanda, si les quatre Puissances--l'Angleterre,
+l'Allemagne, l'Italie et la France--ne pouvaient pas entreprendre des
+demarches a St. Petersbourg et a Vienne, puisque l'affaire se reduisait
+en somme a un conflit entre la Russie et l'Autriche. L'Ambassadeur
+allegua l'absence d'instructions. Finalement le Ministre refusa
+d'adherer a la proposition allemande.
+
+(Signe) Sevastopoulo.
+
+
+No. 29.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en France au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+(_Telegramme_). Paris, le 13/28 Juillet 1914.
+
+Le Directeur du Departement Politique a declare qu'a son avis personnel,
+les demarches successives allemandes a Paris ont pour but d'intimider la
+France et d'amener son intervention a St. Petersbourg.
+
+(Signe) Sevastopoulo.
+
+
+No. 30.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en Allemagne au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+(_Telegramme_). Berlin, le 13/26 Juillet 1914.
+
+Apres la reception a Berlin de la nouvelle de la mobilisation de l'armee
+autrichienne contre la Serbie une grande foule, composee, aux dires des
+journaux, en partie d'elements autrichiens, se livra a une serie de
+bruyantes manifestations en faveur de l'Autriche. A une heure avancee de
+la soiree les manifestants se masserent a plusieurs reprises devant le
+palais de l'Ambassade Imperiale en poussant des cris hostiles a la
+Russie; la police etait presque absente et ne prenait aucune mesure.
+
+(Signe) Bronewsky.
+
+
+No. 31.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Angleterre au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)_.
+
+Londres, le 14/27 Juillet 1914.
+
+Ai recu votre telegramme du 13-26 Juillet. Prie me telegraphier si, a
+Votre avis, Vos pourparlers directs avec le cabinet de Vienne
+s'accordent avec le projet de Grey concernant la mediation des 4
+Gouvernements. Ayant appris de l'Ambassadeur d'Angleterre a St.
+Petersbourg que Vous etiez dispose a accepter cette combinaison, Grey a
+decide de la transformer en une proposition officielle qu'il a faite
+hier soir a Berlin, a Paris et a Rome.
+
+(Signe) Benckendorff.
+
+
+No. 32.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres aux Ambassadeurs en France et en
+Angleterre.
+
+_(Telegramme)_.
+
+St. Petersbourg, le 14/27 Juillet 1914.
+
+(Printed in the British White Book (_Correspondence_, No. 53.).)
+
+
+No. 33.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres aux Ambassadeurs en France, en
+Angleterre, en Allemagne, en Autriche-Hongrie et en Italie.
+
+_(Telegramme)_.
+
+St. Petersbourg, le 14/27 Juillet 1914.
+
+Ai pris connaissance de la reponse transmise par le Gouvernement Serbe
+au Baron Giesl. Elle depasse toutes nos previsions par sa moderation et
+son desir de donner la plus complete satisfaction a l'Autriche. Nous ne
+voyons pas quelles pourraient etre encore les demandes de l'Autriche, a
+moins que le Cabinet de Vienne ne cherche un pretexte pour une guerre
+avec la Serbie.
+
+(Signe) Sazonow.
+
+
+No. 34.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en France au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)_.
+
+Paris, le 14/27 Juillet 1914.
+
+L'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne a confere aujourd'hui de nouveau longuement
+sur la situation avec le Directeur du Departement Politique.
+L'Ambassadeur a beaucoup insiste sur l'exclusion de toute possibilite
+d'une mediation ou d'une conference.
+
+(Signe) Sevastopoulo.
+
+
+No. 35.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en France au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Paris, le 14/27 Juillet 1914.
+
+Ai confere avec le Gerant du Ministere des Affaires Etrangeres, en
+presence de Berthelot, immediatement apres mon retour a Paris. Tous les
+deux m'out confirme les details concernant les demarches de
+l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne que Sevastopoulo Vous a communiques dans ses
+telegrammes. Ce matin le Baron de Schoen a confirme par ecrit sa
+declaration d'hier, savoir: 1) l'Autriche a declare a la Russie qu'elle
+ne recherche pas d'acquisitions et n'attente pas a l'integrite de la
+Serbie. Son unique but est d'assurer sa propre tranquillite. 2) Par
+consequent il depend de la Russie d'eviter la guerre. 3) L'Allemagne et
+la France, completement solidaires dans l'ardent desir de ne pas rompre
+la paix, doivent agir sur la Russie dans un sens moderateur. Le Baron de
+Schoen a specialement souligne l'expression de la solidarite entre
+l'Allemagne et la France. D'apres la conviction du Ministre de la
+Justice, les demarches susdites de l'Allemagne out pour but evident de
+desunir la Russie et la France, d'entrainer le Gouvernement Francais
+dans la voie des representations a St. Petersbourg et de compromettre
+ainsi notre allie a nos yeux; enfin, en cas de guerre, d'en rejeter la
+responsabilite non sur l'Allemagne, qui emploie soi-disant tous ses
+efforts pour le maintien de la paix, mais sur la Russie et la France.
+
+(Signe) Iswolsky.
+
+
+No. 36.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en France au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Paris, le 14/27 Juillet 1914.
+
+Il ressort de vos telegrammes du 13/26 Juillet que vous ne connaissiez
+pas encore la reponse du Gouvernement Serbe. Le telegramme par lequel
+cette nouvelle m'a ete communiquee de Belgrade a ete egalement en route
+pendant 20 heures. Le telegramme du Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres
+Francais expedie avant-hier, au triple tarif, a onze heures du matin, et
+contenant l'ordre d'appuyer notre demarche, n'est parvenu a sa
+destination qu'a 6 heures. Il n'y a aucun doute que ce telegramme n'ait
+ete retenu intentionnellement par le telegraphe autrichien.
+
+(Signe) Iswolsky.
+
+
+No. 37.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en France au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Paris, le 14/27 Juillet 1914.
+
+D'ordre de son Gouvernement, l'Ambassadeur d'Autriche a communique au
+Gerant du Ministere des Affaires Etrangeres que la reponse de la Serbie
+a ete jugee insuffisante a Vienne et que demain, mardi, l'Autriche
+procederait a des 'actions energiques' don't le but serait de forcer la
+Serbie de lui donner les garanties necessaires. Le Ministre ayant
+demande en quoi consisteraient ces actions, l'Ambassadeur repondit qu'il
+n'avait pas de renseignements exacts a ce sujet, mais qu'il pouvait
+s'agir d'un passage da la frontiere serbe, d'un ultimatum et meme d'une
+declaration de guerre.
+
+(Signe) Iswolsky.
+
+
+No. 38.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en Allemagne au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Berlin, le 14/27 Juillet 1914.
+
+J'ai prie le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres d'appuyer a Vienne votre
+proposition tendant a autoriser Szapary d'elaborer, par la voie d'un
+echange de vues prive avec Vous, une redaction des demandes
+austro-hongroises acceptable pour les deux parties. Jagow a repondu
+qu'il etait an courant de cette proposition et qu'il partageait l'avis
+de Pourtales que, puisque Szapary avait commence cette conversation, il
+pourrait aussi bien la continuer. Il telegraphiera dans ce sens a
+l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne a Vienne. Je l'ai prie de conseiller d'une
+facon plus pressante a Vienne de s'engager dans cette voie de
+conciliation; Jagow a repondu qu'il ne pouvait pas conseiller a
+l'Autriche de ceder.
+
+(Signe) Bronewsky.
+
+
+No. 39.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en Allemagne au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Berlin, le 14/27 Juillet 1914.
+
+Aujourd'hui, avant ma visite au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres, ce
+dernier avait recu celle de l'Ambassadeur de France qui avait tente de
+lui faire accepter la proposition anglaise relative a une action en
+faveur de la paix, action qui serait exercee simultanement a
+St.-Petersbourg et a Vienne par l'Angleterre, l'Allemagne, l'Italie et
+la France. Cambon a propose que ces Puissances donnent a Vienne un
+conseil dans les termes suivants: "S'abstenir de tout acte qui pourrait
+aggraver la situation de l'heure actuelle". En adoptant cette formule
+voilee on eviterait de mentionner la necessite de s'abstenir d'une
+invasion de la Serbie. Jagow a oppose a cette proposition un refus
+categorique, et cela malgre les instances de l'Ambassadeur qui a fait
+valoir, comme un bon cote de la proposition, le groupement mixte des
+Puissances grace auquel on evitait l'opposition de l'Alliance a
+l'Entente, ce dont s'etait si souvent plaint Jagow lui-meme.
+
+(Signe) Bronewsky.
+
+
+No. 40.
+
+Telegramme de Sa Majeste Imperiale l'Empereur a Son Altesse Royale le
+Prince Alexandre de Serbie en date du 14/27 Juillet 1914.
+
+Votre Altesse Royale en s'adressant a Moi dans un moment
+particulierement difficile ne s'est pas trompee sur les sentiments qui
+M'animent a Son egard et sur Ma sympathie cordiale pour le peuple serbe.
+
+Ma plus serieuse attention est attiree par la situation actuelle et Mon
+Gouvernement s'applique de toutes ses forces a aplanir les presentes
+difficultes. Je ne doute point que Votre Altesse et le Gouvernement
+Royal ne veuillent faciliter cette tache en ne negligeant rien pour
+arriver a une solution qui permette de prevenir les horreurs d'une
+nouvelle guerre tout en sauvegardant la dignite de la Serbie.
+
+Tant qu'il y a le moindre espoir d'eviter une effusion de sang, tous nos
+efforts doivent tendre vers ce but. Si, malgre Notre plus sincere desir,
+Nous ne reussissons pas, Votre Altesse peut etre assuree qu'en aucun cas
+la Russie ne se desinteressera du sort de la Serbie.
+
+(Signe) Nicolas.
+
+
+No. 41.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Autriche-Hongrie au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+(_Telegramme_). Vienne, le 14/17 juillet 1914.[194]
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres est absent. Pendant un entretien
+prolonge, que j'ai eu aujourd'hui avec Macchio, j'ai, en termes tout a
+fait amicaux, attire son attention sur l'impression defavorable qu'a
+produite en Russie la presentation par l'Autriche a la Serbie de
+demandes absolument inacceptables pour chaque etat independant, bien que
+petit. J'ai ajoute que ce procede, qui pourrait amener des complications
+les moins desirables, a provoque en Russie une profonde surprise et une
+reprobation generale. Il faut supposer que l'Autriche, sous l'influence
+des assurances du Representant Allemand a Vienne, lequel pendant toute
+cette crise a joue un role d'instigateur, a compte sur la probabilite de
+la localisation de son conflit avec la Serbie et sur la possibilite de
+porter a cette derniere impunement un coup grave. La declaration du
+Gouvernement Imperial concernant l'impossibilite pour la Russie de
+rester indifferente en presence d'un tel procede a provoque ici une
+grande impression.
+
+(Signe) Schebeko.
+
+[Footnote 194: Evidently the date July 17 is a misprint for July 27.]
+
+
+No. 42.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Angleterre au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+(_Telegramme_). Londres, le 14/17 Juillet 1914.[195]
+
+Grey vient de repondre a l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne, qui etait venu le
+questionner sur la possibilite d'une action a St.-Petersbourg, que cette
+action devrait se produire a Vienne et que le cabinet de Berlin serait
+le mieux qualifie pour l'exercer. Grey a fait observer en meme temps que
+la reponse serbe a la note autrichienne depassait par sa moderation et
+son esprit de conciliation tout ce a quoi on pouvait s'attendre. Grey a
+ajoute qu'il en concluait que la Russie avait conseille a Belgrade de
+donner une reponse moderee et qu'il pensait que la reponse serbe pouvait
+servir de base a une solution pacifique et acceptable de la question.
+
+Dans ces conditions, a continue Grey, si l'Autriche malgre cette reponse
+commencait les hostilites, elle prouverait son intention d'aneantir la
+Serbie. La question placee sur ce terrain produirait une situation qui
+pourrait amener une guerre dans laquelle seraient impliquees toutes les
+Puissances.
+
+Grey a enfin declare que le Gouvernement Anglais etait bien sincerement
+dispose a collaborer avec le gouvernement Allemand tant qu'il s'agirait
+de la conservation de la paix; mais que pour le cas contraire
+l'Angleterre se reservait une pleine liberte d'action.
+
+(Signe) Benckendorff.
+
+[Footnote 195: Evidently the date July 17 is a misprint for July 27.]
+
+
+No. 43.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres a l'Ambassadeur en Angleterre.
+
+(_Telegramme_). St.-Petersbourg, le 15/28 Juillet 1914.
+
+(Printed in the British White Book (_Correspondence_, No. 54.).)
+
+
+No. 44.
+
+Le Consul general a Fiume au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Fiume, le 15/28 Juillet 1914.
+
+L'etat de siege a ete proclame en Slavonie, en Croatie et a Fiume et en
+meme temps les reservistes de toutes les categories ont ete mobilises.
+
+(Signe) Salviati.
+
+
+No. 45.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Autriche-Hongrie au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Vienne, le 15/28 Juillet 1914.
+
+(Printed in the British White Book (_Correspondence_, No. 93 (I)).)
+
+
+No. 46.
+
+Le Charge d'affaires en Allemagne au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Berlin, le 15/28 Juillet 1914.
+
+Le Bureau Wolff n'a pas publie le texte de la note responsive serbe qui
+lui avait ete communique. Jusqu'a ce moment cette note n'a paru in
+extenso dans aucun des journaux locaux, qui selon toute evidence ne
+veulent pas lui donner place dans leurs colonnes, se rendant compte de
+l'effet calmant que cette publication produirait sur les lecteurs
+allemands.
+
+(Signe) Bronewsky.
+
+
+No. 47.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Autriche-Hongrie au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Vienne, le 15/28 Juillet, 1914.
+
+Le decret sur la mobilisation generale a ete signe.
+
+(Signe) Schebeko.
+
+
+No. 48.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres a l'Ambassadeur a Londres.[196]
+
+_(Telegramme)._ St.-Petersbourg, le 15/28 Juillet, 1914.
+
+En presence des hostilites entre l'Autriche-Hongrie et la Serbie il est
+necessaire que l'Angleterre entreprenne d'urgence une action mediatrice
+et que l'action militaire de l'Autriche contre la Serbie soit
+immediatement suspendue. Autrement la mediation ne servira que de
+pretexte pour tirer en longueur la solution de la question et donnera
+entre temps a l'Autriche la possibilite d'ecraser completement la Serbie
+et d'occuper une situation dominante dans les Balcans.
+
+Communique a Paris, Berlin, Vienne et Rome.
+
+(Signe) Sazonow.
+
+[Footnote 196: An English (abbreviated) version of this telegram is
+given in the British White Book (_Correspondence_, No. 70 (2)).]
+
+
+No. 49.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres au Charge d'Affaires en Allemagne.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ St.-Petersbourg, le 16/29 Juillet, 1914.
+
+(Printed in the British White Book (_Correspondence_, No. 93 (2)).)
+
+
+No. 50.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres aux Ambassadeurs en Angleterre et en
+France.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ St.-Petersbourg, le 16/29 Juillet 1914.
+
+(Printed in the British White Book (_Correspondence_, No. 93 (3)).)
+
+
+No. 51.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en Allemagne au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Berlin, le 16/29 Juillet 1914.
+
+Sur ma question s'il avait une reponse de Vienne relativement a Votre
+proposition de pourparlers prives a St.-Petersbourg, le Secretaire
+d'Etat a repondu negativement.
+
+Il declare qu'il lui est fort difficile d'agir sur Vienne, surtout
+ouvertement. Parlant a Cambon, il a meme ajoute qu'en cas d'une pression
+trop evidente l'Autriche se haterait de mettre l'Allemagne en presence
+d'un fait accompli.
+
+Le Secretaire d'Etat dit qu'il a recu aujourd'hui un telegramme de
+Pourtales d'ou il constate que plus que les premiers jours Vous etes
+dispose a trouver un compromis acceptable pour tous. J'ai replique que
+probablement Vous avez ete des le commencement en faveur d'un compromis,
+bien entendu a la condition qu'il soit acceptable non seulement pour
+l'Autriche, mais egalement pour nous. Il m'a dit ensuite qu'il
+paraissait que nous avions commence a mobiliser sur la frontiere
+autrichienne et qu'il craignait que ceci rendrait plus difficile pour
+l'Autriche la possibilite de s'entendre avec nous, d'autant plus que
+l'Autriche ne mobilisait que contre la Serbie et ne faisait pas de
+preparatifs sur notre frontiere. J'ai repondu que, d'apres les
+renseignements dont je disposais, l'Autriche mobilisait egalement sur
+notre frontiere et que par consequent nous devions prendre des mesures
+analogues. J'ai ajoute que les mesures que nous avons peut-etre prises
+de notre cote n'etaient nullement dirigees contre l'Allemagne.
+
+(Signe) Bronewsky.
+
+
+No. 52.
+
+Le Charge d'affaires en Serbie au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Nich, le 16/29 Juillet 1914.
+
+Aujourd'hui le Ministre de Bulgarie, an nom de son Gouvernement, a
+declare a Pachiteh que la Bulgarie observerait la neutralite.
+
+(Signe) Strandtman.
+
+
+No. 53.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en France au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Paris, le 16/29 Juillet 1914.
+
+A l'occasion de l'arrivee du President de la Republique Francais le
+Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres avait prepare un court expose de la
+situation politique actuelle, a pen pres dans les termes suivants:
+L'Autriche, craignant la decomposition interieure, s'est emparee du
+pretexte de l'assassinat de l'Archiduc pour essayer d'obtenir des
+garanties qui pourront revetir la forme de l'occupation des
+communications militaires serbes ou meme du territoire serbe.
+L'Allemagne soutient l'Autriche. Le maintien de la paix depend de la
+seule Russie, parce qu'il s'agit d'une affaire qui doit etre "localisee"
+entre l'Autriche et la Serbie, c'est a dire de la punition de la
+politique precedente de la Serbie et des garanties pour l'avenir. De
+ceci l'Allemagne conclue qu'il faut exercer une action moderatrice a
+Petersbourg. Ce sophisme a ete refute a Paris comme a Londres. A Paris,
+le Baron de Schoen a en vain tache d'entrainer la France a une action
+solidaire avec l'Allemagne sur la Russie en faveur du maintien de la
+paix. Les memes tentatives out ete faites a Londres. Dans les deux
+capitales il a ete repondu que l'action devrait etre exercee a Vienne,
+car les demandes excessives de l'Autriche, son refus de discuter les
+rares reserves de la Serbie, et la declaration de guerre menacent de
+provoquer la guerre generale. La France et l'Angleterre ne peuvent
+exercer une action moderatrice sur la Russie, laquelle jusqu'ici a fait
+preuve de la plus grande moderation, surtout en conseillant a la Serbie
+d'accepter ce qui etait possible de la note autrichienne. Aujourd'hui
+l'Allemagne parait renoncer a l'idee d'une action sur la Russie seule et
+incline vers une action mediatrice a Petersbourg et a Vienne, mais en
+meme temps l'Allemagne comme l'Autriche tachent de faire trainer
+l'affaire. L'Allemagne s'oppose a la Conference sans indiquer aucune
+autre maniere d'agir pratique. L'Autriche mene des pourparlers
+manifestement dilatoires a Petersbourg. En meme temps elle prend des
+mesures actives, et si ces mesures sont tolerees, ses pretentions
+augmenteront proportionnellement. Il est tres desirable que la Russie
+prete tout son appui an projet de mediation que presentera Sir E. Grey.
+Dans le cas contraire l'Autriche, sous pretexte de "garantie", pourra,
+en fait, changer le status territorial de l'Europe orientale.
+
+(Signe) Iswolsky.
+
+
+No. 54.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Angleterre au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Londres, le 10/29 Juillet 1914.
+
+Ai communique le contenu de Vos telegrammes du 15/28 Juillet a Grey. Il
+a declare aujourd'hui a l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne que les pourparlers
+directs entre la Russie et l'Autriche avaient echoue, et que les
+correspondants des journaux mandaient de St.-Petersbourg que la Russie
+mobilisait contre l'Autriche a la suite de la mobilisation de cette
+derniere. Grey dit qu'en principe le Gouvernement Allemand s'est declare
+en faveur de la mediation, mais qu'il rencontre des difficultes quant a
+la forme. Grey a insiste pour que le Gouvernement Allemand indiquat la
+forme laquelle a l'avis de l'Allemagne pourrait permettre aux 4
+Puissances d'exercer leur mediation pour eviter la guerre; vu le
+consentement de la France, de l'Italie et de l'Angleterre la mediation
+pourrait avoir lieu seulement dans le cas ou l'Allemagne consentirait a
+se ranger du cote de la paix.
+
+(Signe) Benckendorff.
+
+
+No. 55.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en France au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Paris, le 16/29 Juillet 1914.
+
+Viviani vient de me confirmer l'entiere resolution du Gouvernement
+Francais d'agir d'accord avec nous. Cette resolution est soutenue par
+les cercles les plus etendus et par les partis, y compris les
+radicaux-socialistes, qui viennent de lui presenter une declaration
+exprimant la confiance absolue et les dispositions patriotiques du
+groupe. Des son arrivee a Paris, Viviani a telegraphie d'urgence a
+Londres que vu la cessation des pourparlers directs entre Petersbourg et
+Vienne il etait necessaire que le Cabinet de Londres renouvelat le plus
+tot possible sous telle ou autre forme sa proposition concernant la
+mediation des Puissances. Avant moi Viviani a recu aujourd'hui
+l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne qui lui a renouvele l'assurance des tendances
+pacifiques de l'Allemagne. Viviani ayant fait observer que si
+l'Allemagne desirait la paix elle devrait se hater d'adherer a la
+proposition de mediation anglaise, le Baron Schoen a repondu que les
+mots "conference" ou "arbitrage" effrayaient l'Autriche. Viviani a
+replique qu'il ne s'agissait pas de mots et qu'il serait facile de
+trouver une autre forme de mediation. D'apres l'avis du Baron de Schoen,
+pour le succes des negociations entre les Puissances il serait
+necessaire de savoir ce que l'Autriche compterait demander a la Serbie.
+Viviani a repondu que le Cabinet de Berlin pourrait bien facilement s'en
+enquerir aupres de l'Autriche, mais qu'en attendant la note responsive
+serbe pourrait servir de base a la discussion; il a ajoute que la France
+desirait sincerement la paix, mais qu'elle etait en meme temps resolue
+d'agir en pleine harmonie avec ses allies et amis, et que lui, le Baron
+de Schoen, avait pu se convaincre que cette resolution rencontrait la
+plus vive approbation du pays.
+
+(Signe) Iswolsky.
+
+
+No. 56.
+
+Telegramme de son Altesse Royale le Prince Alexandre de Serbie a sa
+Majeste l'Empereur.
+
+Profondement touche par le telegramme que Votre Majeste a bien voulu
+M'adresser hier, Je M'empresse de La remercier de tout mon coeur. Je
+prie Votre Majeste d'etre persuadee que la cordiale sympathie, dont
+Votre Majeste est animee envers Mon pays, nous est particulierement
+precieuse et remplit notre ame de l'espoir que l'avenir de la Serbie est
+assure etant devenu l'objet de la Haute sollicitude de Votre Majeste.
+Ces moments penibles ne peuvent que raffermir les liens de l'attachement
+profond qui unissent la Serbie a la sainte Russie slave, et les
+sentiments de reconnaissance eternelle pour l'aide et la protection de
+Votre Majeste seront conserves pieusement dans l'ame de tous les Serbes.
+
+(Signe) Alexandre,
+
+
+No. 57.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en Serbie au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Nich, le 16/29 Juillet 1914.
+
+J'ai communique a Pachitch le texte du telegramme responsif de Sa
+Majeste l'Empereur an Prince Alexandre. Pachitch apres l'avoir lu, se
+signa et dit: "Seigneur! Le Tzar est grand et clement"! Ensuite il
+m'embrassa, ne pouvant contenir l'emotion qui l'avait gagne. L'heritier
+est attendu a Nich dans la nuit.
+
+(Signe) Strandtman.
+
+
+No. 58.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres a l'Ambassadeur en France.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ St. Petersbourg, le 10/29 Juillet 1914.
+
+Aujourd'hui l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne m'a communique la resolution prise
+par son gouvernement de mobiliser, si la Russie ne cessait pas ses
+preparatifs militaires. Or, nous n'avons commence ces derniers qu'a la
+suite de la mobilisation a laquelle avait deja procede l'Autriche et vu
+l'absence evidente chez cette derniere du desir d'accepter un mode
+quelconque d'une solution pacifique de son conflit avec la Serbie.
+
+Puisque nous ne pouvons pas acceder au desir de l'Allemagne, il ne nous
+reste que d'accelerer nos propres armements et de compter avec
+l'inevitabilite probable de la guerre.--Veuillez en avertir le
+Gouvernement Francais et lui exprimer en meme temps notre sincere
+reconnaissance pour la declaration que l'Ambassadeur de France m'a faite
+en son nom en disant que nous pouvons compter entierement sur l'appui de
+notre alliee de France. Dans les circonstances actuelles cette
+declaration nous est particulierement precieuse. Communique aux
+Ambassadeurs en Angleterre, Autriche-Hongrie, Italie, Allemagne.
+
+(Signe) Sazonow.
+
+
+No. 59.
+
+Le Charge d'Affaires en Serbie au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Nich, le 17/30 Juillet 1914.
+
+Le Prince-Regent a publie hier un manifeste signe par tous les Ministres
+a l'occasion de la declaration de la guerre par l'Autriche a la Serbie.
+Le manifeste se termine par les paroles suivantes: "Defendez de toutes
+vos forces vos foyers et la Serbie". Lors de l'ouverture solennelle de
+la Scouptchina, le Regent lut en son nom le discours du trone, an debut
+duquel il indiqua que le lieu de la convocation demontrait l'importance
+des evenements actuels. Suit l'expose des faits des derniers
+jours--l'ultimatum autrichien, la reponse serbe, les efforts du
+gouvernement Royal de faire tout ce qui etait compatible avec la dignite
+de l'Etat pour eviter la guerre et enfin l'agression armee du voisin
+plus puissant contre la Serbie, aux cotes de laquelle se tient le
+Montenegro. En passant a l'examen de l'attitude des Puissances en
+presence du conflit, le Prince insista tout d'abord sur les sentiments
+dont est animee la Russie et sur la Toute Gracieuse Communication de sa
+Majeste l'Empereur disant que la Russie en aucun cas n'abandonnera la
+Serbie. A chaque mention du nom de Sa Majeste Imperiale et de la Russie
+un "jivio" formidable et febrile secouait la salle des seances. Les
+marques de sympathie de la part de la France et de l'Angleterre furent
+aussi relevees separement et provoquerent des "jivio" d'approbation de
+la part des deputes. Le discours du trone se termine par la declaration
+d'ouverture de la Scouptchina et par l'expression du voeu que toutes les
+mesures soient prises pour faciliter la tache du Gouvernement.
+
+(Signe) Strandtman.
+
+
+No. 60.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres aux Ambassadeurs en Allemagne, en
+Autriche-Hongrie, en France, en Angleterre, et en Italie.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ St. Petersbourg, le 17/30 Juillet 1914.
+
+L'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne qui vient de me quitter m'a demande si nous ne
+pouvions pas nous contenter de la promesse que l'Autriche pourrait
+donner--de ne pas porter atteinte a l'integrite du Royaume de Serbie--et
+indiquer a quelles conditions nous pourrions encore consentir a
+suspendre nos armements; je lui ai dicte, pour etre transmise d'urgence
+a Berlin, la declaration suivante: "Si l'Autriche, reconnaissant que la
+question austro-serbe a assume le caractere d'une question europeenne,
+se declare prete a eliminer de son ultimatum les points qui portent
+atteinte aux droits souverains de la Serbie, la Russie s'engage a cesser
+ses preparatifs militaires."
+
+Veuillez telegraphier d'urgence quelle sera l'attitude du Gouvernement
+Allemand en presence de cette nouvelle preuve de notre desir de faire le
+possible pour la solution pacifique de la question, car nous ne pouvons
+pas admettre que de semblables pourparlers ne servent qu'a faire gagner
+du temps a l'Allemagne et a l'Autriche pour leurs preparatifs
+militaires.
+
+(Signe) Sazonow.
+
+
+No. 61.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Allemagne au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Berlin, le 17/30 Juillet 1914.
+
+J'apprends que le decret de mobilisation de l'armee et de la flotte
+allemandes vient d'etre promulgue.
+
+(Signe) Swerbeew.
+
+
+No. 62.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Allemagne au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Berlin, le 17/30 Juillet 1914.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres vient de me telephoner pour me
+communiquer que la nouvelle lancee tout a l'heure de la mobilisation de
+l'armee et de la flotte allemandes est fausse; que les feuillets des
+journaux etaient imprimes d'avance en prevision de toutes eventualites,
+et mis en vente a l'heure de l'apres-midi, mais que maintenant ils sont
+confisques,
+
+(Signe) Swerbeew.
+
+
+No. 63.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Allemagne au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Berlin, le 17/30 Juillet 1914.
+
+Ai recu Votre telegramme du 16-29 Juillet et ai transmis le texte de
+Votre proposition au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres que je viens de
+voir; il m'a dit qu'il avait recu un telegramme identique de
+l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne a St.-Petersbourg et m'a declare ensuite qu'il
+trouvait notre proposition inacceptable pour l'Autriche.
+
+(Signe) Swerbeew.
+
+
+No. 64.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Angleterre au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Londres, le 17/30 Juillet 1914.
+
+Ai communique le contenu de Vos telegrammes du 16 et 17 Juillet a Grey
+lequel considere la situation comme tres serieuse, mais desire continuer
+les pourparlers. J'ai fait observer a Grey que depuis que Vous lui aviez
+fait la proposition d'accepter tout ce qu'il proposerait en faveur du
+maintien de la paix, pourvu que l'Autriche ne put profiter de ces
+atermoiements pour ecraser la Serbie, la situation dans laquelle Vous
+vous trouviez s'etait apparemment modifiee. A cette epoque nos rapports
+avec l'Allemagne n'etaient pas compromis. Apres la declaration de
+l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne a St.-Petersbourg concernant la mobilisation
+allemande, ces rapports avaient change et sa demande avait recu de Votre
+part la seule reponse que pouvait donner une grande Puissance. Lorsque
+l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne etait revenu aupres de Vous et s'etait enquis
+de Vos conditions, Vous les aviez formulees dans des circonstances
+tout-a-fait speciales. J'ai en meme temps de nouveau insiste aupres de
+Grey sur la necessite de prendre en consideration la situation nouvelle
+creee par la faute de l'Allemagne a la suite de l'action de
+l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne. Grey a repondu qu'il le comprenait et qu'il
+tiendrait compte de ces arguments.
+
+(Signe) Benckendorff.
+
+
+No. 65.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Angleterre au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Londres, le 17/30 Juillet 1914.
+
+L'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne a demande a Grey pour quelle raison
+l'Angleterre prenait des mesures militaires sur terre et sur mer. Grey a
+repondu que ces mesures n'avaient pas un caractere agressif, mais que la
+situation etait telle que chaque Puissance devait se preparer.
+
+(Signe) Benckendorff.
+
+
+No. 66.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Autriche-Hongrie au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Vienne, le 18/31 Juillet 1914.
+
+Malgre la mobilisation generale je continue a echanger des vues avec le
+Comte Berchtold et ses collaborateurs. Tous insistent sur l'absence chez
+l'Autriche d'intentions agressives quelconques contre la Russie et de
+visees de conquete a l'egard de la Serbie, mais tous insistent egalement
+sur la necessite pour l'Autriche de poursuivre jusqu'an bout l'action
+commencee et de donner a la Serbie une lecon serieuse qui pourrait
+constituer une certaine garantie pour l'avenir.
+
+(Signe) Schebeko.
+
+
+No. 67.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres aux Ambassadeurs en Allemagne,
+Autriche-Hongrie, en France, en Angleterre et en Italie.[197]
+
+_(Telegramme)._ St. Petersbourg, le 18/31 Juillet 1914.
+
+Me refere a mon telegramme du 17/30 Juillet. D'ordre de son
+gouvernement, l'Ambassadeur d'Angleterre m'a transmis le desir du
+Cabinet de Londres d'introduire quelques modifications dans la formule
+que j'ai proposee hier a l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne. J'ai repondu que
+j'acceptais la proposition anglaise. Ci-dessous je vous transmets la
+formule modifiee en consequence.
+
+'Si l'Autriche consent a arreter la marche de ses armees sur le
+territoire Serbe et si, reconnaissant que le conflit austro-serbe a
+assume le caractere d'une question d'interet europeen, elle admet que
+les Grandes Puissances examinent la satisfaction que la Serbie pourrait
+accorder au gouvernement d'Autriche-Hongrie sans laisser porter atteinte
+a ses droits d'Etat souverain et a son independance,--la Russie s'engage
+a conserver son attitude expectante.'
+
+(Signe) Sazonow.
+
+[Footnote 197: The second paragraph is printed in the British White Book
+(_Correspondence_ No. 132).]
+
+
+No. 68.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Allemagne au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Berlin, le 18/31 Juillet 1914.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres vient de me dire que nos
+pourparlers, qui etaient deja difficiles a la suite de la mobilisation
+contre l'Autriche, le deviennent encore davantage en presence des graves
+mesures militaires que nous prenons contre l'Allemagne; des nouvelles y
+relatives sont, d'apres lui, recues ici de tous les cotes et devront
+provoquer inevitablement des mesures analogues de la part de
+l'Allemagne. A cela j'ai repondu que, d'apres des renseignements surs
+dont je disposais et qui etaient confirmes par tous nos compatriotes
+arrivant a Berlin, la prise contre nous des mesures susdites se
+poursuivait egalement en Allemagne avec grande activite. Malgre cela, le
+Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres affirme qu'ici on n'a fait que rappeler
+les officiers de leurs conges et les troupes des champs de manoeuvres.
+
+(Signe) Swerbeew.
+
+
+No. 69.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres a l'Ambassadeur en Angleterre.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ St.-Petersbourg, le 18/31 Juillet 1914.
+
+J'ai prie l'Ambassadeur d'Angleterre de transmettre a Grey l'expression
+de ma plus sincere reconnaissance pour le ton amical et ferme dont il a
+use pendant les pourparlers avec l'Allemagne et l'Autriche, grace a quoi
+l'espoir de trouver une issue pacifique de la situation actuelle n'est
+pas encore perdu.
+
+Je l'ai aussi prie de dire au Ministre Anglais que je pensais que ce
+n'etait qu'a Londres que les pourparlers auraient encore quelques
+chances d'un succes quelconque, en facilitant a l'Autriche la necessite
+d'un compromis.
+
+Communique a l'Ambassadeur en France.
+
+(Signe) Sazonow.
+
+
+No. 70.
+
+Telegramme secret aux Representants de Sa Majeste l'Empereur a
+l'etranger.
+
+(_Telegramme_). Le 19 Juillet/1 Aout 1914.
+
+A minuit l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne m'a declare, d'ordre de son
+Gouvernement, que si dans les 12 heures, c'est-a-dire a midi, Samedi,
+nous ne commencions pas la demobilisation, non seulement a l'egard de
+l'Allemagne, mais aussi a l'egard de l'Autriche, le Gouvernement
+Allemand serait force de donner l'ordre de mobilisation. A ma question
+si c'etait la guerre, l'Ambassadeur a repondu par la negative, mais en
+ajoutant que nous etions fort pres d'elle.
+
+(Signe) Sazonow.
+
+
+No. 71.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en Angleterre au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Londres, 19 Juillet/1 Aout 1914.
+
+Grey m'a dit qu'il a telegraphie a Berlin qu'a son avis la derniere
+formule acceptee par le Gouvernement Russe constitue la base de
+negociations qui presente le plus de chances pour une solution pacifique
+du conflict. Il a exprime en meme temps l'espoir qu'aucune grande
+Puissance ne commencerait les hostilites avant l'examen de cette
+formule.
+
+(Signe) Benckendorff.
+
+
+No. 72.
+
+L'Ambassadeur eu Angleterre au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+(_Telegramme_). Londres, le 19 Juillet/1 Aout 1914.
+
+Le Gouvernement de la Grande-Bretagne a pose aux Gouvernements Francais
+et Allemand la question s'ils respecteraient la neutralite de la
+Belgique.
+
+La France a repondu dans I'affirmative, tandis que le Gouvernement
+Allemand a declare ne pouvoir repondre a cette question categoriquement.
+
+(Signe) Benckendorff.
+
+
+No. 73.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en France au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Paris, le 19 Juillet/1 Aout 1914.
+
+L'Ambassadeur d'Autriche a visite hier Viviani et lui a declare que
+l'Autriche non seulement n'avait pas le dessein de porter atteinte a
+l'integrite territoriale de la Serbie, mais etait prete a discuter avec
+les autres Puissances le fond de son conflit avec la Serbie. Le
+Gouvernement Francais est tres preoccupe par les preparatifs militaires
+extraordinaires de l'Allemagne sur la frontiere francaise, car il est
+convaincu que sous le voile du "Kriegszustand" se produit une veritable
+mobilisation.
+
+(Signe) Iswolsky.
+
+
+No. 74.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en France au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Paris, le 19 Juillet/1 Aout 1914.
+
+A la reception ici du telegramme de l'Ambassadeur de France a
+St.-Petersbourg contenant la communication que Vous a faite
+l'Ambassadeur Allemand concernant la resolution de l'Allemagne de
+decreter aujourd'hui la mobilisation generale, le President de la
+Republique a signe le decret de mobilisation. Dans les rues on procede a
+l'affichage des listes d'appel des reservistes. L'Ambassadeur
+d'Allemagne vient de rendre visite a Viviani, mais ne lui a fait aucune
+nouvelle communication, en alleguant l'impossibilite de dechiffrer les
+telegrammes qu'il a recus. Viviani l'a informe de la signature du decret
+de mobilisation en reponse a la mobilisation allemande et lui a fait
+part de son etonnement de ce que l'Allemagne eut pris une telle mesure a
+un moment ou se poursuivait encore un echange de vues amical entre la
+Russie, l'Autriche et les Puissances; il a ajoute que la mobilisation ne
+prejugeait pas necessairement la guerre et que l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne
+pourrait rester a Paris comme l'Ambassadeur de Russie est reste a Vienne
+et celui d'Autriche a St.-Petersbourg.
+
+(Signe) Iswolsky.
+
+
+No. 75.
+
+L'Ambassadeur en France au Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres.
+
+_(Telegramme)._ Paris, le 19 Juillet/1 Aout 1914.
+
+Je tiens du President que pendant les dernieres journees l'Ambassadeur
+d'Autriche a assure avec force le President du Conseil des Ministres et
+lui meme, que l'Autriche nous aurait declare etre prete a respecter non
+seulement l'integrite territoriale de la Serbie, mais aussi ses droits
+souverains, mais que nous aurions intentionnellement fait le silence sur
+cette declaration. J'ai oppose un dementi categorique a cela.
+
+(Signe) Iswolsky.
+
+
+No. 76.
+
+Note remise par l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne a St.-Petersbourg le 19
+Juillet 1914 a 7 h. 10 du soir.
+
+Le Gouvernement Imperial s'est efforce des les debuts de la crise de la
+mener a une solution pacifique. Se rendant a un desir qui lui en avait
+ete exprime par Sa Majeste l'Empereur de Russie, Sa Majeste l'Empereur
+d'Allemagne d'accord avec l'Angleterre s'etait applique a accomplir un
+role mediateur aupres des Cabinets de Vienne et de St.-Petersbourg,
+lorsque la Russie, sans en attendre le resultat, proceda a la
+mobilisation de la totalite de ses forces de terre et de mer. A la suite
+de cette mesure menacante motivee par aucun presage militaire de la part
+de l'Allemagne, l'Empire Allemand s'est trouve vis-a-vis d'un danger
+grave et imminent. Si le Gouvernement Imperial eut manque de parer a ce
+peril, il aurait compromis la securite et l'existence meme de
+l'Allemagne. Par consequent le Gouvernement Allemand se vit force de
+s'adresser au Gouvernement de Sa Majeste l'Empereur de Toutes les
+Russies en insistant sur la cessation desdits actes militaires. La
+Russie ayant refuse de faire droit a (n'ayant pas cru devoir repondre
+a[198]) cette demande et ayant manifeste par ce refus (cette attitude
+[198]) que son action etait dirigee contre I'Allemagne, j'ai l'honneur,
+d'ordre de mon Gouvernement, de faire savoir a Votre Excellence ce qui
+suit:
+
+Sa Majeste l'Empereur Mon Auguste Souverain au nom de l'Empire, relevant
+le defi se considere en etat de guerre avec la Russie.
+
+St.-Petersbourg, le 19 Juillet/1 Aout 1914.
+
+(Signe) F. Pourtales.
+
+[Footnote 198: Les mots places entre parentheses se trouvent dans
+l'original. Il faut supposer que deux variantes avaient ete preparees
+d'avance et que par erreur elles out ete inserees toutes les deux dans
+la note.]
+
+
+No. 77.
+
+Communique du Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres concernant les evenements
+des derniers jours.
+
+Le 20 Juillet/2 Aout 1914.
+
+Un expose defigurant les evenements des derniers jours ayant paru dans
+la presse etrangere, le Ministere des Affaires Etrangeres croit de son
+devoir de publier l'apercu suivant des pourparlers diplomatiques pendant
+le temps susvise.
+
+Le 10/23 Juillet a.c. le Ministre d'Autriche-Hongrie a Belgrade presenta
+an Ministre President Serbe une note ou le Gouvernement Serbe etait
+accuse d'avoir favorise le mouvement panserbe qui avait abouti a
+l'assassinat de l'heritier du trone austro-hongrois. En consequence
+l'Autriche-Hongrie demandait au Gouvernement Serbe non seulement de
+condamner sous une forme solennelle la susdite propagande, mais aussi de
+prendre, sous le controle de l'Autriche-Hongrie, une serie de mesures
+tendant a la decouverte du complot, a la punition des sujets serbes y
+ayant participe et a la prevention dans l'avenir de tout attentat sur le
+sol du Royaume. Un delai de 48 heures fut fixe au Gouvernement Serbe
+pour la reponse a la susdite note.
+
+Le Gouvernement Imperial, auquel l'Ambassadeur d'Autriche-Hongrie a
+St.-Petersbourg avait communique le texte de la note 17 heures apres sa
+remise a Belgrade, ayant pris connaissance des demandes y contenues, dut
+s'apercevoir que quelques-unes parmi elles etaient inexecutables quant
+an fond, tandis que d'autres etaient presentees sous une forme
+incompatible avec la dignite d'un Etat independant. Trouvant
+inadmissibles la diminution de la dignite de la Serbie contenue dans ces
+demandes, ainsi que la tendance de l'Autriche-Hongrie d'assurer sa
+preponderance dans les Balcans demontree par ces memes exigences, le
+Gouvernement Russe fit observer dans la forme la plus amicale a
+l'Autriche-Hongrie qu'il serait desirable de soumettre a un nouvel
+examen les points contenus dans la note austro-hongroise. Le
+Gouvernement Austro-Hongrois ne crut possible de consentir a une
+discussion de la note. L'action moderatrice des autres Puissances a
+Vienne ne fut non plus couronnee de succes.
+
+Malgre que la Serbie eut reprouve le crime et se fut montree prete a
+donner satisfaction a l'Autriche dans une mesure qui depassa les
+previsions non seulement de la Russie, mais aussi des autres Puissances,
+le Ministre d'Autriche-Hongrie a Belgrade jugea la reponse serbe
+insuffisante et quitta cette ville.
+
+Reconnaissant le caractere exagere des demandes presentees par
+l'Autriche, la Russie avait declare encore auparavant qu'il lui serait
+impossible de rester indifferente, sans se refuser toutefois a employer
+tous ses efforts pour trouver une issue pacifique qui fut acceptable
+pour l'Autriche et menageat son amour-propre de grande puissance. En
+meme temps la Russie etablit fermement qu'elle admettait une solution
+pacifique de la question seulement dans une mesure qui n'impliquerait
+pas la diminution de la dignite de la Serbie comme Etat independant.
+Malheureusement tous les efforts deployes par le Gouvernement Imperial
+dans cette direction resterent sans effet. Le Gouvernement
+Austro-Hongrois, apres s'etre derobe a toute intervention conciliatrice
+des Puissances dans son conflit avec la Serbie, proceda a la
+mobilisation, declara officiellement la guerre a la Serbie, et le jour
+suivant Belgrade fut bombardee. Le manifeste qui a accompagne la
+declaration de guerre accuse ouvertement la Serbie d'avoir prepare et
+execute le crime de Seraiewo. Une pareille accusation d'un crime de
+droit commun lancee contre tout un peuple et tout un Etat attira a la
+Serbie par son inanite evidente les larges sympathies des cercles de la
+societe europeenne.
+
+A la suite de cette maniere d'agir du Gouvernement Austro-Hongrois,
+malgre la declaration de la Russie qu'elle ne pourrait rester
+indifferente au sort de la Serbie, le Gouvernement Imperial jugea
+necessaire d'ordonner la mobilisation des circonscriptions militaires de
+Kiew, d'Odessa, de Moscou et de Kazan. Une telle decision s'imposait
+parce que depuis la date de la remise de la note austro-hongroise au
+Gouvernement Serbe et les premieres demarches de la Russie cinq jours
+s'etaient ecoules, et cependant le Cabinet de Vienne n'avait fait aucun
+pas pour aller au-devant de nos efforts pacifiques; au contraire, la
+mobilisation de la moitie de l'armee austro-hongroise avait ete
+decretee.
+
+Le Gouvernement Allemand fut mis au courant des mesures prises par la
+Russie; il lui fut en meme temps explique qu'elles n'etaient que la
+consequence des armements autrichiens et nullement dirigees contre
+l'Allemagne. En meme temps, le Gouvernement Imperial declara que la
+Russie etait prete a continuer les pourparlers en vue d'une solution
+pacifique du conflit, soit par la voie de negociations directes avec le
+Cabinet de Vienne, soit en suivant la proposition de la Grande-Bretagne,
+par la voie d'une Conference des quatre Grandes Puissances non
+interessees directement, voire l'Angleterre, la France, l'Allemagne et
+l'Italie.
+
+Cependant cette tentative de la Russie echoua egalement.
+L'Autriche-Hongrie declina un echange de vues ulterieur avec nous, et le
+Cabinet de Vienne se deroba a la participation a la Conference des
+Puissances projetee.
+
+Neanmoins, la Russie ne discontinua pas ses efforts en faveur de la
+paix. Repondant a la question de l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne, a quelles
+conditions nous consentirions encore a suspendre nos armements, le
+Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres declara que ces conditions seraient la
+reconnaissance par l'Autriche-Hongrie que la question Austro-Serbe avait
+revetu le caractere d'une question europeenne, et la declaration de
+cette meme Puissance qu'elle consentait a ne pas insister sur des
+demandes incompatibles avec les droits souverains de la Serbie.
+
+La proposition de la Russie fut jugee par l'Allemagne inacceptable pour
+l'Autriche-Hongrie. Simultanement on recut a St.-Petersbourg la nouvelle
+de la proclamation de la mobilisation generale par l'Autriche-Hongrie.
+
+En meme temps les hostilites continuaient sur le territoire Serbe et
+Belgrade fut bombardee derechef.
+
+L'insucces de nos propositions pacifiques nous obligea d'elargir les
+mesures de precaution militaires.
+
+Le Cabinet de Berlin nous ayant adresse une question a ce sujet, il lui
+fut repondu que la Russie etait forcee de commencer ses armements pour
+se premunir contre toutes eventualites.
+
+Tout en prenant cette mesure de precaution, la Russie n'en discontinuait
+pas moins de rechercher de toutes ses forces une issue de cette
+situation et declara etre prete a accepter tout moyen de solution du
+conflit qui comporterait l'observation des conditions posees par nous.
+
+Malgre cette communication conciliante, le Gouvernement Allemand, le
+18/31 Juillet, adressa au Gouvernement Russe la demande d'avoir a
+suspendre ses mesures militaires a midi du 19 Juillet/ 1 Aout, en
+menacant, dans le cas contraire, de proceder a une mobilisation
+generale.
+
+Le lendemain, 19 Juillet/1 Aout, l'Ambassadeur d'Allemagne transmit au
+Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres, an nom de son Gouvernement, la
+declaration de guerre.
+
+
+No. 78.
+
+Le Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres aux Representants de S. M.
+I'Empereur a l'etranger.
+
+(_Telegramme_). St.-Petersbourg, le 20 Juillet/2 Aout 1914.
+
+Il est absolument clair que l'Allemagne s'efforce des a present de
+rejeter sur nous la responsabilite de la rupture. Notre mobilisation a
+ete provoquee par l'enorme responsabilite que nous aurions assumee, si
+nous n'avions pas pris toutes les mesures de precaution a un moment ou
+l'Autriche, se bornant a des pourparlers d'un caractere dilatoire,
+bombardait Belgrade et procedait a une mobilisation generale.
+
+Sa Majeste l'Empereur s'etait engage vis-a-vis de l'Empereur d'Allemagne
+par sa parole a n'entreprendre aucun acte agressif tant que dureraient
+les pourparlers avec l'Autriche. Apres une telle garantie et apres
+toutes les preuves de l'amour de la Russie pour la paix, l'Allemagne ne
+pouvait ni avait le droit de douter de notre declaration que nous
+accepterions avec joie toute issue pacifique compatible avec la dignite
+et l'independance de la Serbie. Une autre issue, tout en etant
+completement incompatible avec notre propre dignite, aurait certainement
+ebranle l'equilibre Europeen assurant l'hegemonie de l'Allemagne. Ce
+caractere Europeen, voire mondial, du conflit est infiniment plus
+important que le pretexte qui l'a cree. Par sa decision de nous declarer
+la guerre a un moment ou se poursuivaient les negociations entre les
+Puissances, l'Allemagne a assume une lourde responsabilite.
+
+(Signe) Sazonow.
+
+
+No. 79.
+
+Note remise par l'Ambassadeur d'Autriche-Hongrie a St.-Petersbourg au
+Ministre des Affaires Etrangeres le 24 Juillet a 6 h. du soir.
+
+D'ordre de son Gouvernement le soussigne Ambassadeur d'Autriche-Hongrie
+a l'honneur de notifier a Son Excellence Monsieur le Ministre des
+Affaires Etrangeres de Russie ce qui suit:
+
+"Vu l'attitude menacante prise par la Russie dans le conflit entre la
+Monarchie Austro-Hongroise et la Serbie et en presence du fait qu'en
+suite de ce conflit la Russie, d'apres une communication du Cabinet de
+Berlin, a cru devoir ouvrir les hostilites contre l'Allemagne et que
+celle-ci se trouve par consequent en etat de guerre avec ladite
+Puissance, l'Autriche-Hongrie se considere egalement en etat de guerre
+avec la Russie a partir du present moment.
+
+"(Signe) Szapary. St.-Petersbourg. 6 Aout/24 Juillet 1914."
+
+
+
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