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diff --git a/old/mkpa10.txt b/old/mkpa10.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..68f8f0b --- /dev/null +++ b/old/mkpa10.txt @@ -0,0 +1,4240 @@ +The Project Gutenberg EBook of Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic +by Sir William Petty +(#1 in our series by Sir William Petty) + +Copyright laws are changing all over the world. Be sure to check the +copyright laws for your country before downloading or redistributing +this or any other Project Gutenberg eBook. + +This header should be the first thing seen when viewing this Project +Gutenberg file. Please do not remove it. Do not change or edit the +header without written permission. + +Please read the "legal small print," and other information about the +eBook and Project Gutenberg at the bottom of this file. Included is +important information about your specific rights and restrictions in +how the file may be used. You can also find out about how to make a +donation to Project Gutenberg, and how to get involved. + + +**Welcome To The World of Free Plain Vanilla Electronic Texts** + +**eBooks Readable By Both Humans and By Computers, Since 1971** + +*****These eBooks Were Prepared By Thousands of Volunteers!***** + + +Title: Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic + +Author: Sir William Petty + +Release Date: May, 2004 [EBook #5619] +[Yes, we are more than one year ahead of schedule] +[This file was first posted on July 23, 2002] + +Edition: 10 + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: ASCII + +*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK, MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETIC *** + + + + +Transcribed from the Cassell & Co. edition by David Price, email +ccx074@coventry.ac.uk + + + + +ESSAYS ON MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETIC + + + + +Contents: + +Introduction (by Henry Morley) +Another Essays + The stationer to the reader + The principal points of this discourse + Of the growth of the city of London +Further observation upon the Dublin bills + The stationer to the reader + A postscript to the stationer +Two essays in political arithmetic + To the king's most excellent majesty + An essay in political arithmetic +Five essays in political arithmetic + The first essay + The second essay + The third essay. + The fourth essay + The fifth essay +Of the people of England (by Gregory King) + + + +INTRODUCTION. + + + +William Petty, born on the 26th of May, 1623, was the son of a +clothier at Romsey in Hampshire. After education at the Romsey +Grammar School, he continued his studies at Caen in Normandy. There +he supported himself by a little trade while learning French, and +advancing his knowledge of Greek, Latin, Mathematics, and much else +that belonged to his idea of a liberal education. His idea was +large. He came back to England, and had for a short time a place in +the Navy; but at the age of twenty he went abroad again, and was +away three years, studying actively at Utrecht, Leyden, and +Amsterdam, and also in Paris. In Paris he assisted Thomas Hobbes in +drawing diagrams for his treatise on optics. At the age of twenty- +four Petty took out a patent for the invention of a copying machine. +It was described in a folio pamphlet "On Double Writing." That was +in 1647, in Civil War time, and although Petty followed Hobbes in +his studies, he did not share the philosopher's political opinions, +but held with the Parliament. In 1648 he added to his former +pamphlet a "Declaration concerning the newly invented Art of Double +Writing." + +Samuel Hartlib, the large-hearted Pole, who in those days spent his +worldly means in England for the advancement of agriculture and of +education, and other aids to the well-being of a nation, had caused +Milton to write his letter on education, as has been shown in the +Introduction to the hundred and twenty-first volume of this Library, +which contains that Letter together with Milton's Areopagitica. +Young Petty's first published writing was a Letter to Hartlib on +Education, entitled "The Advice of W. P. to Mr. Samuel Hartlib for +the Advancement of some Particular Parts of Learning." This +appeared in 1648, when Petty's age was twenty-five, and its aim was +to suggest a wider view of the whole field of education than had +been possible in the Middle Ages, of which schools and colleges were +then preserving the traditions, as they do still here and there to +some extent. This pamphlet has been reprinted in the sixth volume +of the "Harleian Miscellany." William Petty wished the training of +the young to be in several respects more practical. + +His own activity of mind caused him to settle at Oxford, where he +taught anatomy and chemistry, which he had been studying abroad. He +had read with Hobbes the writings of Vesalius, the great founder of +modern practical anatomy. In 1649 William Petty graduated at Oxford +as Doctor of Medicine, obtained a fellowship at Brasenose, and +practised. In 1650 he surprised the public by restoring the action +of the lungs in a woman who had been hanged for infanticide, and so +restoring her to life. + +Dr. Petty now took his place at Oxford among the energetic men of +science who had been inspired by the teaching of Francis Bacon to +seek knowledge by direct experiment, and to value knowledge above +all things for its power of advancing the welfare of man. The +headquarters of these workers were at Oxford, and in London at +Gresham College. + +In 1650 Petty was made Professor of Anatomy at Oxford, and it is a +characteristic illustration of his great activity of mind that he +was at the same time Professor of Music at Gresham College. Music +had then a high place in the Seven Sciences, as that use of +regulated numbers which expressed the harmonies of the created +world. The Seven Sciences were divided into three of the Trivium, +and four of the Quadrivium. The three of the Trivium concerned the +use of speech; they were Grammar, Rhetoric, and Logic. The four of +the Quadrivium concerned number and measure; they were Arithmetic, +Geometry, Music; and Astronomy, which led up straight to God. +Advance to Music might be represented in the student's mind by his +reaching to a sense of the harmonious relation of all his studies, +which, so to speak, lived in his mind as a single well-proportioned +thought. + +In 1652 Dr. Petty was sent to Ireland as physician to the army of +the Commonwealth. While there his active mind observed that the +Survey on which the Government had based its distribution of +fortified lands to the soldiers had been "most inefficiently and +absurdly managed." He obtained the commission to make a fresh +Survey, which he completed accurately in thirteen months, and by +which he obtained in payments from the Government and from other +persons interested ten thousand pounds. By investing this in the +purchase of soldiers' claims, he secured for himself an Irish estate +of fifty thousand acres in the county of Kerry, opened upon it mines +and quarries, developed trade in timber, and set up a fishery. John +Evelyn said of him "that he had never known such another genius, and +that if Evelyn were a prince he would make Petty his second +councillor at least." Henry Cromwell as Lord Deputy in Ireland made +Petty his secretary. + +Petty's Maps were printed in 1685, two years before his death, as +"Hiberniae Delineatio quoad hactenus licuit perfectissima;" a +collection of thirty-six maps, with a portrait of Sir William Petty, +a work answering to its description as the most perfect delineation +of Ireland that had up to that time been obtained. There is a +coloured copy of Petty's maps in the British Museum, and also an +uncoloured copy, with the first five maps varying from those in the +coloured copy, and giving a General Map of Ireland, followed by Maps +of Leinster, Munster, Ulster, and Connaught. There was afterwards +published in duodecimo, without date, "A Geographical Description of +ye Kingdom of Ireland, collected from ye actual Survey made by Sir +William Petty, corrected and amended, engraven and published by Fra. +Lamb." This volume gives as its contents, "one general mapp, four +provincial mapps, and thirty-two county mapps; to which is added a +mapp of Great Brittaine and Ireland, together with an Index of the +whole." + +At the Restoration William Petty accepted the inevitable change, and +continued his service to the country. He was knighted by Charles +the Second, and appointed in 1661 Inspector-General of Ireland. He +entered Parliament. He was one of the first founders of the Royal +Society, established at the beginning of the reign of Charles the +Second; and the outcome of these scientific studies along the line +marked out by Francis Bacon, which had been actively pursued in +Oxford and at Gresham College. In 1663 he applied his ingenuity to +the invention of a swift double-bottomed ship, that made one or two +passages between England and Ireland, but was then lost in a storm. + +In 1670 Sir William Petty established on his lands at Kerry the +English settlement at the head of the bay of Kenmare. The building +of forty-two houses for the English settlers first laid the +foundations of the present town of Kenmare. "The population," +writes Lord Macaulay, "amounted to a hundred and eighty. The land +round the town was well cultivated. The cattle were numerous. Two +small barks were employed in fishing and trading along the coast. +The supply of herrings, pilchards, mackerel, and salmon, was +plentiful, and would have been still more plentiful had not the +beach been, in the finest part of the year, covered by multitudes of +seals, which preyed on the fish of the bay. Yet the seal was not an +unwelcome visitor: his fur was valuable; and his oil supplied light +through the long nights of winter. An attempt was made with great +success to set up ironworks. It was not yet the practice to employ +coal for the purpose of smelting; and the manufacturers of Kent and +Sussex had much difficulty in procuring timber at a reasonable +price. The neighbourhood of Kenmare was then richly wooded; and +Petty found it a gainful speculation to send ore thither." He +looked also for profit from the variegated marbles of adjacent +islands. Distant two days' journey over the mountains from the +nearest English, Petty's English settlement of Kenmare withstood all +surrounding dangers, and in 1688, a year after its founder's death, +defended itself successfully against a fierce and general attack. + +Sir William Petty died at London, on the 16th of December, 1687, and +was buried in his native town of Romsey. He had added to his great +wealth by marriage, and was the founder of the family in which +another Sir William Petty became Earl of Shelburne and first Marquis +of Lansdowne. The son of that first Marquis was Henry third Marquis +of Lansdowne, who took a conspicuous part in our political history +during the present century. + +Sir William Petty's survey of the land in Ireland, called the Down +Survey, because its details were set down in maps, remains the legal +record of the title on which half the land in Ireland is held. The +original maps are preserved in the Public Record Office at Dublin, +and many of Petty's MSS. are in the Bodleian Library at Oxford. + +He published in 1662 and 1685 a "Treatise of Taxes and +Contributions, the same being frequently to the present state and +affairs of Ireland," of which his view started from the general +opinion that men should contribute to the public charge according to +their interest in the public peace--that is, according to their +riches. "Now, he said, "there are two sorts of riches--one actual, +and the other potential. A man is actually and truly rich according +to what he eateth, drinketh, weareth, or in any other way really and +actually enjoyeth. Others are but potentially and imaginatively +rich, who though they have power over much, make little use of it, +these being rather stewards and exchangers for the other sort than +owners for themselves." He then showed how he considered that +"every man ought to contribute according to what he taketh to +himself, and actually enjoyeth." + +In 1674 Sir William Petty published a paper on "Duplicate +Proportion," and in 1679 he published in Latin a "Colloquy of David +with his Own Soul." In 1682 he published a tract called +"Quantulumcunque, concerning Money;" and "England's Guide to +Industry," in 1686. From 1682 to 1687, the year of his death, Sir +William Petty was drawing great attention to the "Essays on +Political Arithmetic," which are here reprinted. There was the +little "Essay in Political Arithmetic, concerning the People, +Housings, Hospitals of London and Paris;" published in 1682, again +in French in 1686, and again in English in 1687. There was the +little "Essay concerning the Multiplication of Mankind, together +with an Essay on the Growth of London," published in 1682, and again +in 1683 and 1686. There was in 1683, "Another Essay in Political +Arithmetic concerning the growth of the City of London." There were +"Farther Considerations on the Dublin Bills of Mortality," in 1686; +and "Five Essays on Political Arithmetic" (in French and English), +"Observations upon the Cities of London and Rome," in 1687, the last +year of Sir William Petty's life. Other writings of his were +published in his lifetime, or have been published since his death. +He was in the study of political economy one of the most ingenious +and practical thinkers before the days of Adam Smith. + +But the interest of those "Essays in Political Arithmetic" lies +chiefly in the facts presented by so trustworthy an authority. +London had become in the time of the Stuarts the most populous city +in Europe, if not in the world. This Sir William Petty sought to +prove against the doubts of foreign and other critics, and his +"Political Arithmetic" was an endeavour to determine the relative +strength in population of the chief cities of England, France, and +Holland. His application of arithmetic in the first of these essays +to a census of the population at the Day of Judgment he himself +spoke of slightingly. It is a curious example of a bygone form of +theological discussion. But his tables and his reasonings upon them +grow in interest as he attempts his numbering of the people in the +reign of James II. by collecting facts upon which his deductions +might be founded. The references to the deaths by Plague in London +before the cleansing of the town by the great fire of 1666 are very +suggestive; and in one passage there is incidental note of delay in +the coming of the Plague then due, without reckoning the change made +in conditions of health by the rebuilding. Nobody knew, and no one +even now can calculate, how many lives the Fire of London saved. + +There was in Petty's time no direct numbering of the people. The +first census in this country was not until more than a hundred years +after Sir William Petty's death, although he points out in these +essays how easily it could be established, and what useful +information it would give. There was a census taken at Rome 566 +years before Christ. But the first census in Great Britain was +taken in 1801, under provision of an Act passed on the last day of +the year 1800, to secure a numbering of the population every ten +years. Ireland was not included in the return; the first census in +Ireland was not until the year 1813. + +Sir William Petty had to base his calculations partly upon the Bills +of Mortality, which had been imperfectly begun under Elizabeth, but +fell into disuse, and were revived, as a weekly record of the number +of deaths, beginning on the 29th of October, 1603; notices of +diseases first appeared in them in 1629. The weekly bills were +published every Thursday, and any householder could have them +supplied to him for four shillings a year. These essays will show +how inferences as to the number of the living were drawn from the +number of the dead. And even now our Political Arithmetic depends +too much upon rough calculations made from the death register. It +is seven years since the last census; we have lost count of the +changes in our population to a very great extent, and have to wait +three years before our reckoning can be made sure. The interval +should be reduced to five years. + +Another of Sir William Petty's helps in the arithmetic of population +was the Chimney Tax, a revival of the old fumage or hearth-money-- +smoke farthings, as the people called them--once paid, according to +Domesday Book, for every chimney in a house. Charles the Second had +set up a chimney tax in the year 1662; the statistics of the +collection were at the service of Sir William Petty. The tax +outlived him but two years. It was promptly abolished in the first +year of William and Mary. + +The interest taken at home and abroad in these calculations of +Political Arithmetic set other men calculating, and reasoning upon +their calculations. The next worker in that direction was Gregory +King, Lancaster Herald, whose calculations immediately followed +those of Sir William Petty. Sir William Petty's essays extended +from 1682 until his death in 1687. Gregory King's estimates were +made in 1689. They were a study of the number population and +distribution of wealth among us at the time of the English +Revolution, and the unpublished results were first printed in a +chapter on "The People of England," which formed part a volume +published in 1699 as "An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a +People Gainers in the Balance of Trade, by the Author of the Essay +on Ways and Means." The volume was written by a member of +Parliament in the days of William and Mary, who desired to apply +principles of political economy to the maintenance of English wealth +and liberty. It has been wrongly scribed to Defoe; and its +suggestion of the plan a trading Corporation for solution of the +whole problem of relief to the poor who cannot work, and relief from +the poor who can, might indeed make another chapter in Defoe's +"Essay on Projects." The chapter, which gives the Political +Arithmetic of Gregory King, with such comment and suggestions as +might be expected from a liberal supporter of the Revolution, and +with this suggestion of a Corporation, is in itself a complete +essay. It follows naturally upon the Political Arithmetic of Sir +William Petty in close sequence of time, and in carrying a like +method of inquiry forward until it reaches a few more conclusions. +I have, therefore, added it to this volume. It seems, at any rate, +to show how Sir William Petty's books, of which the very small size +grieved the stationer, had a large influence on other minds; his +figures bearing fruit in a new search for facts and careful +reasoning on the condition of the country at one of the most +critical times in English history. + +H. M. + + + +THE STATIONER TO THE READER + + + +The ensuing essay concerning the growth of the city of London was +entitled "Another Essay," intimating that some other essay had +preceded it, which was not to be found. I having been much +importuned for that precedent essay, have found that the same was +about the growth, increase, and multiplication of mankind, which +subject should in order of nature precede that of the growth of the +city of London, but am not able to procure the essay itself, only I +have obtained from a gentleman, who sometimes corresponded with Sir +W. Petty, an extract of a letter from Sir William to him, which I +verily believe containeth the scope thereof; wherefore, I must +desire the reader to be content therewith, till more can be had. + + +The extract of a letter concerning the scope of an essay intended to +precede another essay concerning the growth of the City of London, +&c. An Essay in Political Arithmetic, concerning the value and +increase of People and Colonies. + +The scope of this essay is concerning people and colonies, and to +make way for "Another Essay" concerning the growth of the city of +London. I desire in this first essay to give the world some light +concerning the numbers of people in England, with Wales, and in +Ireland; as also of the number of houses and families wherein they +live, and of acres they occupy. + +2. How many live upon their lands, how many upon their personal +estates and commerce, and how many upon art, and labour; how many +upon alms, how many upon offices and public employments, and how +many as cheats and thieves; how many are impotents, children, and +decrepit old men. + +3. How many upon the poll-taxes in England, do pay extraordinary +rates, and how many at the level. + +4. How many men and women are prolific, and how many of each are +married or unmarried. + +5. What the value of people are in England, and what in Ireland at +a medium, both as members of the Church or Commonwealth, or as +slaves and servants to one another; with a method how to estimate +the same, in any other country or colony. + +6. How to compute the value of land in colonies, in comparison to +England and Ireland. + +7. How 10,000 people in a colony may be planted to the best +advantage. + +8. A conjecture in what number of years England and Ireland may be +fully peopled, as also all America, and lastly the whole habitable +earth. + +9. What spot of the earth's globe were fittest for a general and +universal emporium, whereby all the people thereof may best enjoy +one another's labours and commodities. + +10. Whether the speedy peopling of the earth would make + +(1) For the good of mankind. + +(2) To fulfil the revealed will of God. + +(3) To what prince or State the same would be most advantageous. + +11. An exhortation to all thinking men to solve the Scriptures and +other good histories, concerning the number of people in all ages of +the world, in the great cities thereof, and elsewhere. + +12. An appendix concerning the different number of sea-fish and +wild-fowl at the end of every thousand years since Noah's Flood. + +13. An hypothesis of the use of those spaces (of about 8,000 miles +through) within the globe of our earth, supposing a shell of 150 +miles thick. + +14. What may be the meaning of glorified bodies, in case the place +of the blessed shall be without the convex of the orb of the fixed +stars, if that the whole system of the world was made for the use of +our earth's men. + + + +THE PRINCIPAL POINTS OF THIS DISCOURSE + + + +1. That London doubles in forty years, and all England in three +hundred and sixty years. + +2. That there be, A.D. 1682, about 670,000 souls in London, and +about 7,400,000 in all England and Wales, and about 28,000,000 of +acres of profitable land. + +3. That the periods of doubling the people are found to be, in all +degrees, from between ten to twelve hundred years. + +4. That the growth of London must stop of itself before the year +1800. + +5. A table helping to understand the Scriptures, concerning the +number of people mentioned in them. + +6. That the world will be fully peopled within the next two +thousand years. + +7. Twelve ways whereby to try any proposal pretended for the public +good. + +8. How the city of London may be made (morally speaking) +invincible. + +9. A help to uniformity in religion. + +10. That it is possible to increase mankind by generation four +times more than at present. + +11. The plagues of London is the chief impediment and objection +against the growth of the city. + +12. That an exact account of the people is necessary in this +matter. + + + +OF THE GROWTH OF THE CITY OF LONDON: And of the Measures, Periods, +Causes, and Consequences thereof + + + +By the city of London we mean the housing within the walls of the +old city, with the liberties thereof, Westminster, the Borough of +Southwark, and so much of the built ground in Middlesex and Surrey, +whose houses are contiguous unto, or within call of those +aforementioned. Or else we mean the housing which stand upon the +ninety-seven parishes within the walls of London; upon the sixteen +parishes next without them; the six parishes of Westminster, and the +fourteen out-parishes in Middlesex and Surrey, contiguous to the +former, all which, 133 parishes, are comprehended within the weekly +bills of mortality. + +The growth of this city is measured. (1) By the quantity of ground, +or number of acres upon which it stands. (2) By the number of +houses, as the same appears by the hearth-books and late maps. (3) +By the cubical content of the said housing. (4) By the flooring of +the same. (5) By the number of days' work, or charge of building +the said houses. (6) By the value of the said houses, according to +their yearly rent, and number of years' purchase. (7) By the number +of inhabitants; according to which latter sense only we make our +computations in this essay. + +Till a better rule can be obtained, we conceive that the proportion +of the people may be sufficiently measured by the proportion of the +burials in such years as were neither remarkable for extraordinary +healthfulness or sickliness. + +That the city hath increased in this latter sense appears from the +bills of mortality represented in the two following tables, viz., +one whereof is a continuation for eighteen years, ending 1682, of +that table which was published in the 117th page of the book of the +observations upon the London bills of mortality, printed in the year +1676. The other showeth what number of people died at a medium of +two years, indifferently taken, at about twenty years' distance from +each other. + +The first of the said two tables. + +A.D. 97 16 Out Buried Besides of Christened + Parishes Parishes Parishes in all the Plague +1665 5,320 12,463 10,925 28,708 68,596 9,967 +1666 1,689 3,969 5,082 10,740 1,998 8,997 +1667 761 6,405 8,641 15,807 35 10,938 +1668 796 6,865 9,603 17,267 14 11,633 +1669 1,323 7,500 10,440 19,263 3 12,335 +1670 1,890 7,808 10,500 20,198 11,997 +1671 1,723 5,938 8,063 15,724 5 12,510 +1672 2,237 6,788 9,200 18,225 5 12,593 +1673 2,307 6,302 8,890 17,499 5 11,895 +1674 2,801 7,522 10,875 21,198 3 11,851 +1675 2,555 5,986 8,702 17,243 1 11,775 +1676 2,756 6,508 9,466 18,730 2 12,399 +1677 2,817 6,632 9,616 19,065 2 12,626 +1678 3,060 6,705 10,908 20,673 5 12,601 +1679 3,074 7,481 11,173 21,728 2 12,288 +1680 3,076 7,066 10,911 21,053 12,747 +1681 3,669 8,136 12,166 23,971 13,355 +1682 2,975 7,009 10,707 20,691 12,653 + +According to which latter table there died as follows:- + + +THE LATTER OF THE SAID TWO TABLES + +There died in London at the medium between the years - + +1604 and 1605 . . . 5,135. A. +1621 and 1622 . . . 8,527. B. +1641 and 1642 . . . 11,883. C. +1661 and 1662 . . . 15,148. D. +1681 and 1682 . . . 22,331. E. + + +Wherein observe, that the number C is double to A and 806 over. +That D is double to B within 1,906. That C and D is double to A and +B within 293. That E is double to C within 1,435. That D and E is +double to B and C within 3,341; and that C and D and E are double to +A and B and C within 1,736; and that E is above quadruple to A. All +which differences (every way considered) do allow the doubling of +the people of London in 40 years to be a sufficient estimate thereof +in round numbers, and without the trouble of fractions. We also say +that 669,930 is near the number of people now in London, because the +burials are 22,331, which, multiplied by 30 (one dying yearly out of +30, as appears in the 94th page of the aforementioned observations), +maketh the said number; and because there are 84,000 tenanted houses +(as we are credibly informed), which, at 8 in each, makes 672,000 +souls; the said two accounts differing inconsiderably from each +other. + +We have thus pretty well found out in what number of years (viz., in +about 40) that the city of London hath doubled, and the present +number of inhabitants to be about 670,000. We must now also +endeavour the same for the whole territory of England and Wales. In +order whereunto, we first say that the assessment of London is about +an eleventh part of the whole territory, and, therefore, that the +people of the whole may well be eleven times that of London, viz., +about 7,369,000 souls; with which account that of the poll-money, +hearth-money, and the bishop's late numbering of the communicants, +do pretty well agree; wherefore, although the said number of +7,369,000 be not (as it cannot be) a demonstrated truth, yet it will +serve for a good supposition, which is as much as we want at +present. + +As for the time in which the people double, it is yet more hard to +be found. For we have good experience (in the said page 94 of the +aforementioned observations) that in the country but 1 of 50 die per +annum; and by other late accounts, that there have been sometimes +but 24 births for 23 burials. The which two points, if they were +universally and constantly true, there would be colour enough to say +that the people doubled but in about 1,200 years. As, for example, +suppose there be 600 people, of which let a fiftieth part die per +annum, then there shall die 12 per annum; and if the births be as 24 +to 23, then the increase of the people shall be somewhat above half +a man per annum, and consequently the supposed number of 600 cannot +be doubled but in 1,126 years, which, to reckon in round numbers, +and for that the aforementioned fractions were not exact, we had +rather call 1,200. + +There are also other good observations, that even in the country one +in about 30 or 32 per annum hath died, and that there have been five +births for four burials. Now, according to this doctrine, 20 will +die per annum out of the above 600, and 25 will be born, so as the +increase will be five, which is a hundred and twentieth part of the +said 600. So as we have two fair computations, differing from each +other as one to ten; and there are also several other good +observations for other measures. + +I might here insert, that although the births in this last +computation be 25 of 600, or a twenty-fourth part of the people, yet +that in natural possibility they may be near thrice as many, and +near 75. For that by some late observations, the teeming females +between 15 and 44 are about 180 of the said 600, and the males of +between 18 and 59 are about 180 also, and that every teeming woman +can bear a child once in two years; from all which it is plain that +the births may be 90 (and abating 15 for sickness, young abortions, +and natural barrenness), there may remain 75 births, which is an +eighth of the people, which by some observations we have found to be +but a two-and-thirtieth part, or but a quarter of what is thus shown +to be naturally possible. Now, according to this reckoning, if the +births may be 75 of 600, and the burials but 15, then the annual +increase of the people will be 60; and so the said 600 people may +double in ten years, which differs yet more from 1,200 above- +mentioned. Now, to get out of this difficulty, and to temper those +vast disagreements, I took the medium of 50 and 30 dying per annum, +and pitched upon 40; and I also took the medium between 24 births +and 23 burials, and 5 births for 4 burials, viz., allowing about 10 +births for 9 burials; upon which supposition there must die 15 per +annum out of the above-mentioned 600, and the births must be 16 and +two-thirds, and the increase one and two-thirds, or five-thirds of a +man, which number, compared with 1,800 thirds, or 600 men, gives 360 +years for the time of doubling (including some allowance for wars, +plagues, and famines, the effects thereof), though they be terrible +at the times and places where they happen, yet in a period of 360 +years is no great matter in the whole nation. For the plagues of +England in twenty years have carried away scarce an eightieth part +of the people of the whole nation; and the late ten years' civil +wars (the like whereof hath not been in several ages before) did +not take away above a fortieth part of the whole people. + +According to which account or measure of doubling, if there be now +in England and Wales 7,400,000 people, there were about 5,526,000 in +the beginning of Queen Elizabeth's reign, A.D. 1560, and about +2,000,000 at the Norman Conquest, of which consult the Doomsday +Book, and my Lord Hale's "Origination of Mankind." + +Memorandum.--That if the people double in 360 years, that the +present 320,000,000 computed by some learned men (from the measures +of all the nations of the world, their degrees of being peopled, and +good accounts of the people in several of them) to be now upon the +face of the earth, will within the next 2,000 years so increase as +to give one head for every two acres of land in the habitable part +of the earth. And then, according to the prediction of the +Scriptures, there must be wars, and great slaughter, &c. + +Wherefore, as an expedient against the above-mentioned difference +between 10 and 1,200 years, we do for the present, and in this +country, admit of 360 years to be the time wherein the people of +England do double, according to the present laws and practice of +marriages. + +Now, if the city double its people in 40 years, and the present +number be 670,000, and if the whole territory be 7,400,000, and +double in 360 years, as aforesaid, then by the underwritten table it +appears that A.D. 1840 the people of the city will be 10,718,880, +and those of the whole country but 10,917,389, which is but +inconsiderably more. Wherefore it is certain and necessary that the +growth of the city must stop before the said year 1840, and will be +at its utmost height in the next preceding period, A.D. 1800, when +the number of the city will be eight times its present number, +5,359,000. And when (besides the said number) there will be +4,466,000 to perform the tillage, pasturage, and other rural works +necessary to be done without the said city, as by the following +table, viz.:- + + + A.D. Burials People in People in + London England + 1565 2,568 77,040 5,526,929 +As in the } 1605 5,135 +former table } 1642 11,883 + } 1682 22,331 669,930 7,369,230 + 1722 44,662 + 1762 89,324 + 1802 178,648 5,359,440 9,825,650 + 1842 357,296 10,718,889 10,917,389 + + +Now, when the people of London shall come to be so near the people +of all England, then it follows that the growth of London must stop +before the said year 1842, as aforesaid, and must be at its greatest +height A.D. 1800, when it will be eight times more than now, with +above 4,000,000 for the service of the country and ports, as +aforesaid. + +Of the aforementioned vast difference between 10 years and 1,200 +years for doubling the people, we make this use, viz.:- To justify +the Scriptures and all other good histories concerning the number of +the people in ancient time. For supposing the eight persons who +came out of the Ark, increased by a progressive doubling in every +ten years, might grow in the first 100 years after the Flood from 8 +to 8,000, and that in 350 years after the Flood (whereabouts Noah +died) to 1,000,000 and by this time, 1682, to 320,000,000 (which by +rational conjecture are thought to be now in the world), it will not +be hard to compute how, in the intermediate years, the growths may +be made, according to what is set down in the following table, +wherein making the doubling to be ten years at first, and within +1,200 years at last, we take a discretionary liberty, but +justifiable by observations and the Scriptures for the rest, which +table we leave to be corrected by historians who know the bigness of +ancient cities, armies, and colonies in the respective ages of the +world, in the meantime affirming that without such difference in the +measures and periods for doubling (the extremes whereof we have +demonstrated to be real and true) it is impossible to solve what is +written in the Holy Scriptures and other authentic books. For if we +pitch upon any one number throughout for this purpose, 150 years is +the fittest of all round numbers; according to which there would +have been but 512 souls in the whole world in Moses' time (being 800 +years after the Flood), when 603,000 Israelites of above twenty +years old (besides those of other ages, tribes, and nations) were +found upon an exact survey appointed by God, whereas our table makes +12,000,000. And there would have been about 8,000 in David's time, +when were found 1,100,000, of above twenty years old (besides +others, as aforesaid) in Israel, upon the survey instigated by +Satan, whereas our table makes 32,000,000. And there would have +been but a quarter of a million about the birth of Christ, or +Augustus's time, when Rome and the Roman Empire were so great, +whereas our table makes 100,000,000. Where note, that the +Israelites in about 500 years, between their coming out of Egypt to +David's reign, increased from 603,000 to 1,100,000. + +On the other hand, if we pitch upon a less number, as 100 years, the +world would have been over-peopled 700 years since. Wherefore no +one number will solve the phenomena, and therefore we have supposed +several, in order to make the following table, which we again desire +historians to correct, according to what they find in antiquity +concerning the number of the people in each age and country of the +world. + +We did (not long since) assist a worthy divine, writing against some +sceptics, who would have baffled our belief of the resurrection, by +saying, that the whole globe of the earth could not furnish matter +enough for all the bodies that must rise at the last day, much less +would the surface of the earth furnish footing for so vast a number; +whereas we did (by the method afore mentioned) assert the number of +men now living, and also of those that had died since the beginning +of the world, and did withal show, that half the island of Ireland +would afford them all, not only footing to stand upon, but graves to +lie down in, for that whole number; and that two mountains in that +country were as weighty as all the bodies that had ever been from +the beginning of the world to the year 1680, when this dispute +happened. For which purpose I have digressed from my intended +purpose to insert this matter, intending to prosecute this hint +further upon some more proper occasion. + + +A TABLE SHOWING HOW THE PEOPLE MIGHT HAVE DOUBLED IN THE SEVERAL +AGES OF THE WORLD. + + A.D., after the Flood. +Periods of { 1 8 persons. +doubling { 10 16 + { 20 32 + { 30 64 + { 40 128 + In 10 years { 50 256 + { 60 512 + { 70 1,024 + { 80 2,048 + { 90 4,096 + { 100 8,000 and more. + { 120 years after + In 20 years { the Flood. 16,000 + { 140 32,000 + { 170 64,000 + 30 { + { 200 128,000 + 40 240 256,000 + 50 290 512,000 + 60 350 1,000,000 and more. + 70 420 2,000,000 + 100 520 4,000,000 + 190 710 8,000,000 + 290 1,000 16,000,000 in Moses' time. + 400 1,400 32,000,000 about David's time. + 550 1,950 64,000,000 + 750 2,700 128,000,000 about the birth of +Christ. + 1,000 3,700 256,000,000 + 300 { +In { 4,000 320,000,000 + 1,200 { + + +It is here to be noted, that in this table we have assigned a +different number of years for the time of doubling the people in the +several ages of the world, and might have done the same for the +several countries of the world, and therefore the said several +periods assigned to the whole world in the lump may well enough +consist with the 360 years especially assigned to England, between +this day and the Norman Conquest; and the said 360 years may well +enough serve for a supposition between this time and that of the +world's being fully peopled; nor do we lay any stress upon one or +the other in this disquisition concerning the growth of the city of +London. + +We have spoken of the growth of London, with the measures and +periods thereof; we come next to the causes and consequences of the +same. + +The causes of its growth from 1642 to 1682 may be said to have been +as follows, viz.:- From 1642 to 1650, that men came out of the +country to London, to shelter themselves from the outrages of the +Civil Wars during that time; from 1650 to 1660, the royal party came +to London for their more private and inexpensive living; from 1660 +to 1670, the king's friends and party came to receive his favours +after his happy restoration; from 1670 to 1680, the frequency of +plots and parliaments might bring extraordinary numbers to the city; +but what reasons to assign for the like increase from 1604 to 1642 I +know not, unless I should pick out some remarkable accident +happening in each part of the said period, and make that to be the +cause of this increase (as vulgar people make the cause of every +man's sickness to be what he did last eat), wherefore, rather than +so to say quidlibet de quolibet, I had rather quit even what I have +above said to be the cause of London's increase from 1642 to 1682, +and put the whole upon some natural and spontaneous benefits and +advantages that men find by living in great more than in small +societies, and shall therefore seek for the antecedent causes of +this growth in the consequences of the like, considered in greater +characters and proportions. + +Now, whereas in arithmetic, out of two false positions the truth is +extracted, so I hope out of two extravagant contrary suppositions to +draw forth some solid and consistent conclusion, viz.:- + +The first of the said two suppositions is, that the city of London +is seven times bigger than now, and that the inhabitants of it are +4,690,000 people, and that in all the other cities, ports, towns, +and villages, there are but 2,710,000 more. + +The other supposition is, that the city of London is but a seventh +part of its present bigness, and that the inhabitants of it are but +96,000, and that the rest of the inhabitants (being 7,304,000) do +cohabit thus: 104,000 of them in small cities and towns, and that +the rest, being 7,200,000, do inhabit in houses not contiguous to +one another, viz., in 1,200,000 houses, having about twenty-four +acres of ground belonging to each of them, accounting about +28,000,000 of acres to be in the whole territory of England, Wales, +and the adjacent islands, which any man that pleases may examine +upon a good map. + +Now, the question is, in which of these two imaginary states would +be the most convenient, commodious, and comfortable livings? + +But this general question divides itself into the several questions, +relating to the following particulars, viz.:- + +1. For the defence of the kingdom against foreign powers. + +2. For preventing the intestine commotions of parties and factions. + +3. For peace and uniformity in religion. + +4. For the administration of justice. + +5. For the proportionably taxing of the people, and easy levying +the same. + +6. For gain by foreign commerce. + +7. For husbandry, manufacture, and for arts of delight and +ornament. + +8. For lessening the fatigue of carriages and travelling. + +9. For preventing beggars and thieves. + +10. For the advancement and propagation of useful learning. + +11. For increasing the people by generation. + +12. For preventing the mischiefs of plagues and contagious. And +withal, which of the said two states is most practicable and +natural, for in these and the like particulars do lie the tests and +touchstones of all proposals that can be made for the public good. + +First, as to practicable, we say, that although our said extravagant +proposals are both in nature possible, yet it is not obvious to +every man to conceive how London, now seven times bigger than in the +beginning of Queen Elizabeth's reign, should be seven times bigger +than now it is, and forty-nine times bigger than A.D. 1560. To +which I say, 1. That the present city of London stands upon less +than 2,500 acres of ground, wherefore a city seven times as large +may stand upon 10,500 acres, which is about equivalent to a circle +of four miles and a half in diameter, and less than fifteen miles in +circumference. 2. That a circle of ground of thirty-five miles +semidiameter will bear corn, garden-stuff, fruits, hay, and timber, +for the 4,690,000 inhabitants of the said city and circle, so as +nothing of that kind need be brought from above thirty-five miles +distance from the said city; for the number of acres within the said +circle, reckoning two acres sufficient to furnish bread and drink- +corn for every head, and two acres will furnish hay for every +necessary horse; and that the trees which may grow in the hedgerows +of the fields within the said circle may furnish timber for 600,000 +houses. 3. That all live cattle and great animals can bring +themselves to the said city; and that fish can be brought from the +Land's End and Berwick as easily as now. 4. Of coals there is no +doubt: and for water, 20s. per family (or 600,000 pounds per annum +in the whole) will serve this city, especially with the help of the +New River. But if by practicable be understood that the present +state may be suddenly changed into either of the two above-mentioned +proposals, I think it is not practicable. Wherefore the true +question is, unto or towards which of the said two extravagant +states it is best to bend the present state by degrees, viz., +Whether it be best to lessen or enlarge the present city? In order +whereunto, we inquire (as to the first question) which state is most +defensible against foreign powers, saying, that if the above- +mentioned housing, and a border of ground, of three-quarters of a +mile broad, were encompassed with a wall and ditch of twenty miles +about (as strong as any in Europe, which would cost but a million, +or about a penny in the shilling of the house-rent for one year) +what foreign prince could bring an army from beyond seas, able to +beat--1. Our sea-forces, and next with horse harassed at sea, to +resist all the fresh horse that England could make, and then conquer +above a million of men, well united, disciplined, and guarded within +such a wall, distant everywhere three-quarters of a mile from the +housing, to elude the granadoes and great shot of the enemy? 2. As +to intestine parties and factions, I suppose that 4,690,000 people +united within this great city could easily govern half the said +number scattered without it, and that a few men in arms within the +said city and wall could also easily govern the rest unarmed, or +armed in such a manner as the Sovereign shall think fit. 3. As to +uniformity in religion, I conceive, that if St. Martin's parish (may +as it doth) consist of about 40,000 souls, that this great city also +may as well be made but as one parish, with seven times 130 chapels, +in which might not only be an uniformity of common prayer, but in +preaching also; for that a thousand copies of one judiciously and +authentically composed sermon might be every week read in each of +the said chapels without any subsequent repetition of the same, as +in the case of homilies. Whereas in England (wherein are near +10,000 parishes, in each of which upon Sundays, holy days, and other +extraordinary occasions there should be about 100 sermons annum, +making about a million of sermons per annum in the whole) it were a +miracle, if a million of sermons composed by so many men, and of so +many minds and methods, should produce uniformity upon the +discomposed understandings of about 8,000,000 of hearers. + +4. As to the administration of justice. If in this great city +shall dwell the owners of all the lands, and other valuable things +in England; if within it shall be all the traders, and all the +courts, offices, records, juries, and witnesses; then it follows +that justice may be done with speed and ease. + +5. As to the equality and easy levying of taxes. It is too certain +that London hath at some time paid near half the excise of England, +and that the people pay thrice as much for the hearths in London as +those in the country, in proportion to the people of each, and that +the charge of collecting these duties have been about a sixth part +of the duty itself. Now in this great city the excise alone +according to the present laws would not only be double to the whole +kingdom, but also more equal. And the duty of hearths of the said +city would exceed the present proceed of the whole kingdom. And as +for the customs we mention them not at present. + +6. Whether more would be gained by foreign commerce? The gain +which England makes by lead, coals, the freight of shipping, &c., +may be the same, for aught I see, in both cases. But the gain which +is made by manufactures will be greater as the manufacture itself is +greater and better. For in so vast a city manufactures will beget +one another, and each manufacture will be divided into as many parts +as possible, whereby the work of each artisan will be simple and +easy. As, for example, in the making of a watch, if one man shall +make the wheels, another the spring, another shall engrave the dial- +plate, and another shall make the cases, then the watch will be +better and cheaper than if the whole work be put upon any one man. +And we also see that in towns, and in the streets of a great town, +where all the inhabitants are almost of one trade, the commodity +peculiar to those places is made better and cheaper than elsewhere. +Moreover, when all sorts of manufactures are made in one place, +there every ship that goeth forth can suddenly have its loading of +so many several particulars and species as the port whereunto she is +bound can take off. Again, when the several manufactures are made +in one place, and shipped off in another, the carriage, postage, and +travelling charges, will enhance the price of such manufacture, and +lessen the gain upon foreign commerce. And lastly, when the +imported goods are spent in the port itself, where they are landed, +the carriage of the same into other places will create no further +charge upon such commodity; all which particulars tend to the +greater gain by foreign commerce. + +7. As for arts of delight and ornament. They are best promoted by +the greatest number of emulators. And it is more likely that one +ingenious curious man may rather be found out amongst 4,000,000 than +400 persons. But as for husbandry, viz., tillage and pasturage, I +see no reason, but the second state (when each family is charged +with the culture of about twenty-four acres) will best promote the +same. + +8. As for lessening the fatigue of carriage and travelling. + +The thing speaks for itself, for if all the men of business, and all +artisans, do live within five miles of each other, and if those who +live without the great city do spend only such commodities as grow +where they live, then the charge of carriage and travelling could be +little. + +9. As to the preventing of beggars and thieves. + +I do not find how the differences of the said two states should make +much difference in this particular; for impotents (which are but one +in about 600) ought to be maintained by the rest. 2. Those who are +unable to work, through the evil education of their parents, ought +(for aught I know) to be maintained by their nearest kindred, as a +just punishment upon them. 3. And those who cannot find work +(though able and willing to perform it), by reason of the unequal +application of hands to lands, ought to be provided for by the +magistrate and landlord till that can be done; for there need be no +beggars in countries where there are many acres of unimproved +improvable land to every head, as there are in England. As for +thieves, they are for the most part begotten from the same cause; +for it is against Nature that any man should venture his life, limb, +or liberty, for a wretched livelihood, whereas moderate labour will +produce a better. But of this see Sir Thomas More, in the first +part of his "Utopia." + +10. As to the propagation and improvement of useful learning. + +The same may be said concerning it as was above said concerning +manufactures, and the arts of delight and ornaments; for in the +great vast city there can be no so odd a conceit or design whereunto +some assistance may not be found, which in the thin, scattered way +of habitation may not be. + +11. As for the increase of people by generation. I see no great +difference from either of the two states, for the same may be +hindered or promoted in either from the same causes. + +12. As to the plague. + +It is to be remembered that one time with another a plague happeneth +in London once in twenty years, or thereabouts; for in the last +hundred years, between the years 1582 and 1682, there have been five +great plagues--viz., A.D. 1592, 1603, 1625, 1636, and 1665. And it +is also to be remembered that the plagues of London do commonly kill +one-fifth part of the inhabitants. Now if the whole people of +England do double but in 360 years, then the annual increase of the +same is but 20,000, and in twenty years 400,000. But if in the city +of London there should be 2,000,000 of people (as there will be +about sixty years hence), then the plague (killing one-fifth of +them, namely, 400,000 once in twenty years) will destroy as many in +one year as the whole nation can re-furnish in twenty; and +consequently the people of the nation shall never increase. But if +the people of London shall be above 4,000,000 (as in the first of +our two extravagant suppositions is premised), then the people of +the whole nation shall lessen above 20,000 per annum. So as if +people be worth 70 pounds per head (as hath elsewhere been shown), +then the said greatness of the city will be a damage to itself and +the whole nation of 1,400,000 pounds per annum, and so pro rata for +a greater or lesser number; wherefore to determine which of the two +states is best--that is to say, towards which of the said two states +authority should bend the present state, a just balance ought to be +made between the disadvantages from the plague, with the advantages +accruing from the other particulars above mentioned, unto which +balance a more exact account of the people, and a better rule for +the measure of its growth is necessary than what we have here given, +or are yet able to lay down. + + +POSTSCRIPT. + + +It was not very pertinent to a discourse concerning the growth of +the city of London to thrust in considerations of the time when the +whole world will be fully peopled; and how to justify the Scriptures +concerning the number of people mentioned in them; and concerning +the number of the quick and the dead that may rise at the last day, +&c. Nevertheless, since some friends, liking the said digressions +and impertinences (perhaps as sauce to a dry discourse) have desired +that the same might be explained and made out, I, therefore, say as +followeth:- + +1. If the number of acres in the habitable part of the earth be +under 50,000,000,000; if 20,000,000,000 of people are more than the +said number of acres will feed (few or no countries being so fully +peopled), and for that in six doublings (which will be in 2,000 +years) the present 320,000,000 will exceed the said 20,000,000,000. + +2. That the number of all those who have died since the Flood is +the sum of all the products made by multiplying the number of the +doubling periods mentioned in the first column of the last table, by +the number of people respectively affixed to them in the third +column of the same table, the said sum being divided by 40 (one +dying out of 40 per annum out of the whole mass of mankind), which +quotient is 12,570,000,000; whereunto may be added, for those that +died before the Flood, enough to make the last-mentioned number +20,000,000,000, as the full number of all that died from the +beginning of the world to the year 1682, unto which, if 320,000,000, +the number of those who are now alive, be added, the total of the +quick and the dead will amount but unto one fifth part of the graves +which the surface of Ireland will afford, without ever putting two +bodies into any one grave; for there be in Ireland 28,000 square +English miles, each whereof will afford about 4,000,000 of graves, +and consequently above 114,000,000,000 of graves, viz., about five +times the number of the quick and the dead which should arise at the +last day, in case the same had been in the year 1682. + +3. Now, if there may be place for five times as many graves in +Ireland as are sufficient for all that ever died, and if the earth +of one grave weigh five times as much as the body interred therein, +then a turf less than a foot thick pared off from a fifth part of +the surface of Ireland, will be equivalent in bulk and weight to all +the bodies that ever were buried, and may serve as well for that +purpose as the two mountains aforementioned in the body of this +discourse. From all which it is plain how madly they were mistaken +who did so petulantly vilify what the Holy Scriptures have +delivered. + + + + +FURTHER OBSERVATION UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS; Or, Accounts of the +Houses, Hearths, Baptisms, and Burials in that City. + + + + +THE STATIONER TO THE READER. + + + +I have not thought fit to make any alteration of the first edition, +but have only added a new table, with observation upon it, placing +the same in the front of what was before, which, perhaps, might have +been as well placed after the like table at the eighth page of the +first edition. + + +DUBLIN, 1682. + +Parishes Houses Fireplaces Baptised Buried +St. James's 272 836 } +St. Katherine's 540 2,198 } 122 306 +St. Nicholas } + Without and } 1,064 4,082 145 414 + St. Patrick's } +St. Bridget's 395 1,903 68 149 +St. Audone's 276 1,510 56 164 +St. Michael's 174 884 34 50 +St. John's 302 1,636 74 101 +St. Nicholas } + Within and } 153 902 26 52 +Christ Church Lib. } +St. Warburgh's 240 1,638 45 105 +St. Michan's 938 3,516 124 389 +St. Andrew's 864 3,638 131 300 +St. Kevin's 554 2,120 } 87 233 +Donnybrook 253 506 } + 6,025 25,369 912 2,263 + + +The table hath been made for the year 1682, wherein is to be noted - + +1. That the houses which A.D. 1671 were but 3,850 are, A.D. 1682, +6,025; but whether this difference is caused by the real increase of +housing, or by fraud and defect in the former accounts, is left to +consideration. For the burials of people have increased but from +1,696 to 2,263, according to which proportion the 3,850 houses A.D. +1671 should A.D. 1682 have been but 5,143, wherefore some fault may +be suspected as aforesaid, when farming the hearth-money was in +agitation. + +2. The hearths have increased according to the burials, and one- +third of the said increase more, viz., the burials A.D. 1671 were +1,696, the one-third whereof is 563, which put together makes 2,259, +which is near the number of burials A.D. 1682. But the hearths A.D. +1671 were 17,500, whereof the one-third is 5,833, making in all but +23,333; whereas the whole hearths A.D. 1682 were 25,369, viz., one- +third and better of the said 5,833 more. + +3. The housing were A.D. 1671 but 3,850, which if they had +increased A.D. 1682 but according to the burials, they had been but +5,143, or, according to the hearths, had been but 5,488, whereas +they appear 6,025, increasing double to the hearths. So as it is +likely there hath been some error in the said account of the +housing, unless the new housing be very small, and have but one +chimney apiece, and that one-fourth part of them are untenanted. On +the other hand, it is more likely that when 1,696 died per annum +there were near 6,000; for 6,000 houses at 8 inhabitants per house, +would make the number of the people to be 48,000, and the number of +1,696 that died according to the rule of one out of 30, would have +made the number of inhabitants about 50,000: for which reason I +continue to believe there was some error in the account of 3,850 +houses as aforesaid, and the rather because there is no ground from +experience to think that in eleven years the houses in Dublin have +increased from 3,850 to 6,025. + +Moreover, I rather think that the number of 6,025 is yet short, +because that number at 8 heads per house makes the inhabitants to be +but 48,200; whereas the 2,263 who died in the year 1682, according +to the aforementioned rule of one dying out of 30 makes the number +of people to be 67,890, the medium betwixt which number and 48,200 +is 58,045, which is the best estimate I can make of that matter, +which I hope authority will ere long rectify, by direct and exact +inquiries. + +4. As to the births, we say that A.D. 1640, 1641, and 1642, at +London, just before the troubles in religion began, the births were +five-sixths of the burials, by reason I suppose of the greaterness +of families in London above the country, and the fewer breeders, and +not for want of registering. Wherefore, deducting one-sixth of +2,263, which is 377, there remains 1,886 for the probable number of +births in Dublin for the year 1682; whereas but 912 are represented +to have been christened in that year, though 1,023 were christened +A.D. 1671, when there died but 1,696, which decreasing of the +christening, and increasing of the burials, shows the increase of +non-registering in the legal books, which must be the increase of +Roman Catholics at Dublin. + +The scope of this whole paper therefore is, that the people of +Dublin are rather 58,000 than 32,000, and that the dissenters, who +do not register their baptisms, have increased from 391 to 974: but +of dissenters, none have increased but the Roman Catholics, whose +numbers have increased from about two to five in the said years. +The exacter knowledge whereof may also be better had from direct +inquiries. + + + +OBSERVATIONS UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS OF MORTALITY, 1681: AND THE +STATE OF THAT CITY. + + + +The observations upon the London bills of mortality have been a new +light to the world, and the like observation upon those of Dublin +may serve as snuffers to make the same candle burn clearer. + +The London observations flowed from bills regularly kept for near +one hundred years, but these are squeezed out of six straggling +London bills, out of fifteen Dublin bills, and from a note of the +families and hearths in each parish of Dublin, which are all +digested into the one table or sheet annexed, consisting of three +parts, marked A, B, C; being indeed the A, B, C of public economy, +and even of that policy which tends to peace and plenty. + + +Observations upon the Table A. + + +1. The total of the burials in London (for the said six straggling +years mentioned in the Table A) is 120,170, whereof the medium or +sixth part is 20,028, and exceeds the burials of Paris, as may +appear by the late bills of that city. + +2. The births, for the same time, are 73,683, the medium or sixth +part whereof is 12,280, which is about five-eighth parts of the +burials, and shows that London would in time decrease quite away, +were it not supplied out of the country, where are about five births +for four burials, the proportion of breeders in the country being +greater than in the city. + +3. The burials in Dublin for the said six years were 9,865, the +sixth part or medium whereof is 1,644, which is about the twelfth +part of the London burials, and about a fifth part over. So as the +people of London do hereby seem to be above twelve times as many as +those of Dublin. + +4. The births in the same time at Dublin are 6,157, the sixth part +or medium whereof is 1,026, which is also about five-eighth parts of +the 1,644 burials, which shows that the proportion between burials +and births are alike at London and Dublin, and that the accounts are +kept alike, and consequently are likely to be true, there being no +confederacy for that purpose; which, if they be true, we then say - + +5. That the births are the best way (till the accounts of the +people shall be purposely taken) whereby to judge of the increase +and decrease of people, that of burials being subject to more +contingencies and variety of causes. + +6. If births be as yet the measure of the people, and that the +births (as has been shown) are as five to eight, then eight-fifths +of the births is the number of the burials, where the year was not +considerable for extraordinary sickness or salubrity, and is the +rule whereby to measure the same. As for example, the medium of +births in Dublin was 1,026, the eight-fifths whereof is 1,641, but +the real burials were 1,644; so as in the said years they differed +little from the 1,641, which was the standard of health, and +consequently the years 1680, 1674, and 1668 were sickly years, more +or less, as they exceeded the said number, 1,641; and the rest were +healthful years, more or less, as they fell short of the same +number. But the city was more or less populous, as the births +differed from the number 1,026, viz., populous in the years 1680, +1679, 1678, and 1668, for other causes of this difference in births +are very occult and uncertain. + +7. What hath been said of Dublin, serves also for London. + +8. It hath already been observed by the London bills that there are +more males than females. It is to be further noted, that in these +six London bills, also, there is not one instance either in the +births or burials to the contrary. + +9. It hath been formerly observed that in the years wherein most +die fewest are born, and vice versa. The same may be further +observed in males and females, viz., when fewest males are born then +most die: for here the males died as twelve to eleven, which is +above the mean proportion of fourteen to thirteen, but were born but +as nineteen to eighteen, which is below the same. + + +Observations upon the Table B. + + +1. From the Table B it appears that the medium of the fifteen +years' burials (being 24,199) is 1,613, whereas the medium of the +other six years in the Table A was 1,644, and that the medium of the +fifteen years' births (being in all 14,765) is 984, whereas the +medium of the said other six years was 1,026. That is to say, there +were both fewer births and burials in these fifteen years than in +the other six years, which is a probable sign that at a medium there +were fewer people also. + +2. The medium of births for the fifteen years being 984, whereof +eight-fifths (being 1,576) is the standard of health for the said +fifteen years; and the triple of the said 1,576 being 4,728, is the +standard for each of the ternaries of the fifteen years within the +said table. + +3. That 2,952, the triple of 984 births, is for each ternary the +standard of people's increase and decrease from the year 1666 to +1680 inclusive, viz., the people increased in the second ternary, +and decreased from the same in the third and fourth ternaries, but +re-increased in the fifth ternary beyond any other. + +4. That the last ternary was withal very healthful, the burials +being but 4,624, viz., below 4,728, the standard. + +5. That according to this proportion of increase, the housing of +Dublin have probably increased also. + +Observations upon the Table C. + +1. First, from the Table C it appears, 1. That the housing of +Dublin is such, as that there are not five hearths in each house one +with another, but nearer five than four. + +2. That in St. Warburgh's parish are near six hearths to a house. +In St. John's five. In St. Michael's above five. In St. Nicholas +Within above six. In Christ Church above seven. In St. James's and +St. Katherine's, and in St. Michan's, not four. In St. Kevin's +about four. + +3. That in St. James's, St. Michan's, St. Bride's, St. Warburgh's, +St. Andrew's, St. Michael's, and St. Patrick's, all the christenings +were but 550, and the burials 1,055, viz., near double; and that in +the rest of the parishes the christenings were five, and the burials +seven, viz., as 457 to 634. Now whether the cause of this +difference was negligence in accounts, or the greaterness of the +families, &c., is worth inquiring. + +4. It is hard to say in what order (as to greatness) these parishes +ought to stand, some having most families, some most hearths, some +most births, and others most burials. Some parishes exceeding the +rest in two, others in three of the said four particulars, but none +in all four. Wherefore this table ranketh them according to the +plurality of the said four particulars wherein each excelleth the +other. + +5. The London observations reckon eight heads in each family, +according to which estimation, there are 32,000 souls in the 4,000 +families of Dublin, which is but half of what most men imagine, of +which but about one sixth part are able to bear arms, besides the +royal regiment. + +6. Without the knowledge of the true number of people, as a +principle, the whole scope and use of the keeping bills of births +and burials is impaired; wherefore by laborious conjectures and +calculations to deduce the number of people from the births and +burials, may be ingenious, but very preposterous. + +7. If the number of families in Dublin be about 4,000, then ten men +in one week (at the charge of about 5 pounds surveying eight +families in an hour) may directly, and without algebra, make an +account of the whole people, expressing their several ages, sex, +marriages, title, trade, religion, &c., and those who survey the +hearths, or the constables or the parish clerks (may, if required) +do the same ex officio, and without other charge, by the command of +the chief governor, the diocesan, or the mayor. + +8. The bills of London have since their beginning admitted several +alterations and improvements, and 8 or 10 pounds per annum +surcharge, would make the bills of Dublin to exceed all others, and +become an excellent instrument of Government. To which purpose the +forms for weekly, quarterly, and yearly bills are humbly +recommended, viz. + +TABLE A-- YEARLY BILLS OF MORTALITY FOR +A.D. LONDON and DUBLIN. + Burials Births Burials Births +1680 21,053 12,747 1,826 1,096 +1679 21,730 12,288 1,397 1,061 +1678 20,678 12,601 1,401 1,045 +1674 21,201 11,851 2,106 942 +1672 18,230 12,563 1,436 987 +1668 17,278 11,633 1,699 1,026 + 120,170 73,683 9,865 6,157 +The medium +or 6th part +whereof is +part whereof +is 20,028 12,280 1,644 1,026 + +TABLE A--CONTINUED + +A.D. LONDON. + BURIALS. BIRTHS. + Male Female Male Female +1680 11,039 10,044 6,543 6,041 +1679 11,154 10,576 6,247 6,041 +1678 10,681 9,977 6,568 6,033 +1674 11,000 10,196 6,113 5,738 +1672 9,560 8,070 6,443 6,120 +1668 9,111 8,167 6,073 5,566 + 62,545 57,030 37,992 35,697 +The medium +or 6th part +whereof is +part whereof +is 10,424 9,505 6,332 5,949 + +TABLE B.--DUBLIN. + +A.D. Burials Births In Ternaries of Years +1666 1,480 952 } +1667 1,642 1,001 } 4,821 2,979 +1668 1,699 1,026 } +1669 1,666 1,000 } +1670 1,713 1,067 } 5,353 3,070 +1671 1,974 1,003 } +1672 1,436 967 } +1673 1,531 933 } 5,073 2,842 +1674 2,106 942 } +1675 1,578 823 } +1676 1,391 952 } 4,328 2,672 +1677 1,359 897 } +1678 1,401 1,045 } +1679 1,397 1,061 } 4,624 3,202 +1680 1,826 1,096 } + 24,199 14,765 24,199 14,765 +The medium } +or 15th }1,613 984 1,613 984 +part whereof } +is } + +TABLE C. + +THE PARISHES OF DUBLIN A.D. A.D., 1670-71-72 + 1671. at a medium + Families Hearths Births Burials +St. Katherine's 661 2,399 161 290 + and St. James's +St. Nicholas Without 490 2,348 207 262 +St. Michan's 656 2,301 127 221 +St. Andrew's with Donnybrook 483 2,123 108 178 +St. Bridget's 416 1,989 70 100 +St. John's 244 1,337 70 138 +St. Warburgh's 267 1,650 54 103 +St. Audaen's 216 1,081 53 121 +St. Michael's 140 793 44 59 +St. Kevin's 106 433 64 133 +St. Nicholas Within 93 614 28 34 +St. Patrick's Liberties 52 255 21 44 +Christ Church and Trinity + College, per estimate 26 197 - 1 + 3,850 17,500 1,013 1,696 + +Houses built between 1671 and +1681, per estimate 150 550 + 4,000 18,150 + +A WEEKLY BILL OF MORTALITY FOR THE CITY OF DUBLIN, +Ending the XXX day of XXX 1681. + +PARISHES' NAMES. +St. Katharine's and St. James's +St. Nicholas Without +St. Michan's +St. Andrew's with Donnybrook +St. Bridget's +St. John's +St. Warburgh's +St. Audaen's +St. Michael's +St. Kevin's +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick's Liberties +Christ Church and Trinity College +Totals + +[The columns for the table are: Births, Males, Females, Burials, +Under 16 years old, Plague, Small Pox, Measles, Spotted Fever. In +the book there are no figures in the table at all.--DP.] + + +A QUARTERLY BILL OF MORTALITY, +Beginning XXX and ending XXX for the City of DUBLIN +PARISHES' NAMES. +St. Katharine's and St. James's +St. Nicholas Without +St. Michan's +St. Andrew's with Donnybrook +St. Bridget's +St. John's +St. Warburgh's +St. Audaen's +St. Michael's +St. Kevin's +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick's Liberties +Christ Church and Trinity College +Totals + +[The columns for the table are: Births 1.; Marriages 2.; Buried +under 16 years olds; Buried above 60 years old; Measles, Spotted +Fever, Small Pox, Plague; Consumption, Dropsy, Gout, Stone; Fever, +Pleurisy, Quinsy, Sudden Death; Aged above 70 years old; Infants +under 2 years old; All other Casualties. In the book there are no +figures in the table at all.--DP.] + + +AN ACCOUNT OF THE PEOPLE OF DUBLIN FOR ONE YEAR, +Ending the 24th of March, 1681. +PARISHES' NAMES. +St. Katharine's and St. James's +St. Nicholas Without +St. Michan's +St. Andrew's with Donnybrook +St. Bridget's +St. John's +St. Warburgh's +St. Audaen's +St. Michael's +St. Kevin's +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick's Liberties +Christ Church and Trinity College +Totals + +[The columns for the table are: Number of person; Males; Females; +Remarried Persons; Persons under 16 years old; Persons above 60 +years old; Protestants of above 16 years old; Papists of above 16 +years old; Of all other religions above 16 years old; Births; +Burials; Marriages. In the book there are no figures in the table +at all.--DP.] + + +CASUALTIES AND DISEASES. +Aged above 70 years Epilepsy and planet +Abortive and still-born Fever and ague +Childbed women Pleurisy +Convulsion Quinsy +Teeth Executed, murdered, +Worms drowned +Gout and sciatica Plague and spotted fever +Stone Griping of the guts +Palsy Scouring, vomiting +Consumption and French bleeding + pox Small pox +Dropsy and tympany Measles +Rickets and livergrown Neither of all the other +Headache and megrim sorts + + + +A POSTSCRIPT TO THE STATIONER. + + + +Whereas you complain that these observations make no sufficient +bulk, I could answer you that I wish the bulk of all books were +less; but do nevertheless comply with you in adding what follows, +viz.: + +1. That the parishes of Dublin are very unequal; some having in +them above 600 families, and others under thirty. + +2. That thirteen parishes are too few for 4,000 families; the +middling parishes of London containing 120 families; according to +which rate there should be about thirty-three parishes in Dublin. + +3. It is said that there are 84,000 houses or families in London, +which is twenty-one times more than are in Dublin, and yet the +births and burials of London are but twelve times those of Dublin, +which shows that the inhabitants of Dublin are more crowded and +straitened in their housing than those of London; and consequently +that to increase the buildings of Dublin will make that city more +conformable to London. + +4. I shall also add some reasons for altering the present forms of +the Dublin bills of mortality, according to what hath been here +recommended--viz.: + +1. We give the distinctions of males and females in the births +only; for that the burials must, at one time or another, be in the +same proportion with the births. + +2. We do in the weekly and quarterly bills propose that notice be +taken in the burials of what numbers die above sixty and seventy, +and what under sixteen, six, and two years old, foreseeing good uses +to be made of that distinction. + +3. We do in the yearly bill reduce the casualties to about twenty- +four, being such as may be discerned by common sense, and without +art, conceiving that more will but perplex and imbroil the account. +And in the quarterly bills we reduce the diseases to three heads-- +viz., contagious, acute, and chronical, applying this distinction to +parishes, in order to know how the different situation, soil, and +way of living in each parish doth dispose men to each of the said +three species; and in the weekly bills we take notice not only of +the plague, but of the other contagious diseases in each parish, +that strangers and fearful persons may thereby know how to dispose +of themselves. + +4. We mention the number of the people, as the fundamental term in +all our proportions; and without which all the rest will be almost +fruitless. + +5. We mention the number of marriages made in every quarter, and in +every year, as also the proportion which married persons bear to the +whole, expecting in such observations to read the improvement of the +nation. + +6. As for religions, we reduce them to three--viz.: (1) those who +have the Pope of Rome for their head; (2) who are governed by the +laws of their country; (3) those who rely respectively upon their +own private judgments. Now, whether these distinctions should be +taken notice of or not, we do but faintly recommend, seeing many +reasons pro and con for the same; and, therefore, although we have +mentioned it as a matter fit to be considered, yet we humbly leave +it to authority. + + + + +TWO ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC, +Concerning the People, Housing, Hospitals, &c., of London and Paris. + + + + +TO THE KING'S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY. + + + +I do presume, in a very small paper, to show your Majesty that your +City of London seems more considerable than the two best cities of +the French monarchy, and for aught I can find, greater than any +other of the universe, which because I can say without flattery, and +by such demonstration as your Majesty can examine, I humbly pray +your Majesty to accept from + +Your Majesty's +Most humble, loyal, and obedient subject, +WILLIAM PETTY. + + + +AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC + + + +Tending to prove that London hath more people and housing than the +cities of Paris and Rouen put together, and is also more +considerable in several other respects. + +1. The medium of the burials at London in the three last years-- +viz., 1683, 1684, and 1685, wherein there was no extraordinary +sickness, and wherein the christenings do correspond in their +ordinary proportions with the burials and christenings of each year +one with another, was 22,337, and the like medium of burials for the +three last Paris bills we could procure--viz., for the years 1682, +1683, and 1684 (whereof the last as appears by the christenings to +have been very sickly), is 19,887. + +2. The city of Bristol in England appears to be by good estimate of +its trade and customs as great as Rouen in France, and the city of +Dublin in Ireland appears to have more chimneys than Bristol, and +consequently more people, and the burials in Dublin were, A.D. 1682 +(being a sickly year) but 2,263. + +3. Now the burials of Paris (being 19,887) being added to the +burials of Dublin (supposed more than at Rouen) being 2,263, makes +but 22,150, whereas the burials of London were 187 more, or 22,337, +or as about 6 to 7. + +4. If those who die unnecessarily, and by miscarriage in L'Hotel +Dieu in Paris (being above 3,000), as hath been elsewhere shown, or +any part thereof, should be subtracted out of the Paris burials +aforementioned, then our assertion will be stronger, and more +proportionable to what follows concerning the housing of those +cities, viz.: + +5. There were burnt at London, A.D. 1666, above 13,000 houses, +which being but a fifth part of the whole, the whole number of +houses in the said year were above 65,000; and whereas the ordinary +burials of London have increased between the years 1666 and 1686, +above one-third the total of the houses at London, A.D. 1686, must +be about 87,000, which A.D. 1682, appeared by account to have been +84,000. + +6. Monsieur Moreri, the great French author of the late +geographical dictionaries, who makes Paris the greatest city in the +world, doth reckon but 50,000 houses in the same, and other authors +and knowing men much less; nor are there full 7,000 houses in the +city of Dublin, so as if the 50,000 houses of Paris, and the 7,000 +houses in the city of Dublin were added together, the total is but +57,000 houses, whereas those of London are 87,000 as aforesaid, or +as 6 to 9. + +7. As for the shipping and foreign commerce of London, the common +sense of all men doth judge it to be far greater than that of Paris +and Rouen put together. + +8. As to the wealth and gain accruing to the inhabitants of London +and Paris by law-suits (or La chicane) I only say that the courts of +London extend to all England and Wales, and affect seven millions of +people, whereas those of Paris do not extend near so far. Moreover, +there is no palpable conspicuous argument at Paris for the number +and wealth of lawyers like the buildings and chambers in the two +Temples, Lincoln's Inn, Gray's Inn, Doctors' Commons, and the seven +other inns in which are chimneys, which are to be seen at London, +besides many lodgings, halls, and offices, relating to the same. + +9. As to the plentiful and easy living of the people we say, + +(a.) That the people of Paris to those of London, being as about 6 +to 7, and the housing of the same as about 6 to 9, we infer that the +people do not live at London so close and crowded as at Paris, but +can afford themselves more room and liberty. + +(b.) That at London the hospitals are better and more desirable than +those of Paris, for that in the best at Paris there die two out of +fifteen, whereas at London there die out of the worst scarce 2 out +of 16, and yet but a fiftieth part of the whole die out of the +hospitals at London, and two-fifths, or twenty times that proportion +die out of the Paris hospitals which are of the same kind; that is +to say, the number of those at London, who choose to lie sick in +hospitals rather than in their own houses, are to the like people of +Paris as one to twenty; which shows the greater poverty or want of +means in the people of Paris than those of London. + +(c.) We infer from the premises, viz., the dying scarce two of +sixteen out of the London hospitals, and about two of fifteen in the +best of Paris, to say nothing of L'Hotel Dieu, that either the +physicians and chirurgeons of London are better than those of Paris, +or that the air of London is more wholesome. + +10. As for the other great cities of the world, if Paris were the +greatest we need say no more in behalf of London. As for Pekin in +China, we have no account fit to reason upon; nor is there anything +in the description of the two late voyages of the Chinese emperor +from that city into East and West Tartary, in the years 1682 and +1683, which can make us recant what we have said concerning London. +As for Delhi and Agra, belonging to the Mogul, we find nothing +against our position, but much to show the vast numbers which attend +that emperor in his business and pleasures. + +11. We shall conclude with Constantinople and Grand Cairo; as for +Constantinople it hath been said by one who endeavoured to show the +greatness of that city, and the greatness of the plague which raged +in it, that there died 1,500 per diem, without other circumstances; +to which we answer, that in the year 1665 there died in London 1,200 +per diem, and it hath been well proved that the Plague of London +never carried away above one-fifth of the people, whereas it is +commonly believed that in Constantinople, and other eastern cities, +and even in Italy and Spain, that the plague takes away two-fifths, +one half, or more; wherefore where 1,200 is but one-fifth of the +people it is probable that the number was greater, than where 1,500 +was two-fifths or one half, &c. + +12. As for Grand Cairo it is reported, that 73,000 died in ten +weeks, or 1,000 per diem, where note, that at Grand Cairo the plague +comes and goes away suddenly, and that the plague takes away two or +three-fifths parts of the people as aforesaid; so as 73,000 was +probably the number of those that died of the plague in one whole +year at Grand Cairo, whereas at London, A.D. 1665, 97,000 were +brought to account to have died in that year. Wherefore it is +certain, that that city wherein 97,000 was but one-fifth of the +people, the number was greater than where 73,000 was two-fifths or +the half. + +We therefore conclude, that London hath more people, housing, +shipping, and wealth, than Paris and Rouen put together; and for +aught yet appears, is more considerable than any other city in the +universe, which was propounded to be proved. + + + +AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC + + + +Tending to prove that in the hospital called L'Hotel Dieu at Paris, +there die above 3,000 per annum by reason of ill accommodation. + +1. It appears that A.D. 1678 there entered into the Hospital of La +Charite 2,647 souls, of which there died there within the said year +338, which is above an eighth part of the said 2,647; and that in +the same year there entered into L'Hotel Dieu 21,491, and that there +died out of that number 5,630, which is above one quarter, so as +about half the said 5,630, being 2,815, seem to have died for want +of as good usage and accommodation as might have been had at La +Charite. + +2. Moreover, in the year 1679 there entered into La Charite 3,118, +of which there died 452, which is above a seventh part, and in the +same year there entered into L'Hotel Dieu 28,635, of which there +died 8,397; and in both the said years 1678 and 1679 (being very +different in their degrees of mortality) there entered into L'Hotel +Dieu 28,635 and 2l,491--in all 50,126, the medium whereof is 25,063; +and there died out of the same in the said two years, 5,630 and +8,397--in all 14,027, the medium whereof is 7,013. + +3. There entered in the said years into La Charite 2,647 and 3,118, +in all 5,765, the medium whereof is 2,882, whereof there died 338 +and 452, in all 790, the medium whereof is 395. + +4. Now, if there died out of L'Hotel Dieu 7,013 per annum, and that +the proportion of those that died out of L'Hotel Dieu is double to +those that died out of La Charite (as by the above numbers it +appears to be near thereabouts), then it follows that half the said +numbers of 7,013, being 3,506, did not die by natural necessity, but +by the evil administration of that hospital. + +5. This conclusion seemed at the first sight very strange, and +rather to be some mistake or chance than a solid and real truth; but +considering the same matter as it appeared at London, we were more +reconciled to the belief of it, viz.:- + +(a.) In the Hospital of St. Bartholomew in London, there was sent +out and cured in the year 1685, 1,764 persons, and there died out of +the said hospital 252. Moreover, there were sent out and cured out +of St. Thomas's Hospital 1,523, and buried, 209--that is to say, +there were cured in both hospitals 3,287, and buried out of both +hospitals 461, and consequently cured and buried 3,748, of which +number the 461 buried is less than an eighth part; whereas at La +Charite the part that died was more than an eighth part; which shows +that out of the most poor and wretched hospitals of London there +died fewer in proportion than out of the best in Paris. + +(b.) Furthermore, it hath been above shown that there died out of La +Charite at a medium 395 per annum, and 141 out of Les Incurables, +making in all 536; and that out of St. Bartholomew's and St. +Thomas's Hospitals, London, there died at a medium but 461, of which +Les Incurables are part; which shows that although there be more +people in London than in Paris, yet there went at London not so many +people to hospitals as there did at Paris, although the poorest +hospitals at London were better than the best at Paris; which shows +that the poorest people at London have better accommodation in their +own houses than the best hospital of Paris affordeth. + +6. Having proved that there die about 3,506 persons at Paris +unnecessarily, to the damage of France, we come next to compute the +value of the said damage, and of the remedy thereof, as follows, +viz., the value of the said 3,506 at 60 livres sterling per head, +being about the value of Argier slaves (which is less than the +intrinsic value of people at Paris), the whole loss of the subjects +of France in that hospital seems to be 60 times 3,506 livres +sterling per annum, viz., 210,360 livres sterling, equivalent to +about 2,524,320 French livres. + +7. It hath appeared that there came into L'Hotel Dieu at a medium +25,063 per annum, or 2,089 per mensem, and that the whole stock of +what remained in the precedent months is at a medium about 2,108 (as +may appear by the third line of the Table No. 5, which shall be +shortly published), viz., the medium of months is 2,410 for the +sickly year 1679, whereunto 1,806 being added as the medium of +months for the year 1678, makes 4,216, the medium whereof is the +2,108 above mentioned; which number being added to the 2,089 which +entered each month, makes 4,197 for the number of sick which are +supposed to be always in L'Hotel Dieu one time with another. + +8. Now, if 60 French livres per annum for each of the said 4,197 +sick persons were added to the present ordinary expense of that +hospital (amounting to an addition of 251,820 livres), it seems that +so many lives might be saved as are worth above ten times that sum, +and this by doing a manifest deed of charity to mankind. + +Memorandum.--That A.D. 1685, the burials of London were 23,222, and +those of Amsterdam 6,245; from whence, and the difference of air, it +is probable that the people of London are quadruple to those of +Amsterdam. + + + + +OBSERVATIONS UPON THE CITIES OF LONDON AND ROME + + + + +1. That before the year 1630 the christenings at London exceeded +the burials of the same, but about the year 1655 they were scarce +half; and now about two-thirds. + +2. Before the restoration of monarchy in England, A.D. 1660, the +people of Paris were more than those of London and Dublin put +together, whereas now, the people of London are more than those of +Paris and Rome, or of Paris and Rouen. + +3. A.D. 1665 one fifth part of the then people of London, or +97,000, died of the plague, and in the next year, 1666, 13,000 +houses, or one fifth part of all the housing of London, were burnt +also. + +4. At the birth of Christ old Rome was the greatest city of the +world, and London the greatest at the coronation of King James II., +and near six times as great as the present Rome, wherein are 119,000 +souls besides Jews. + +5. In the years of King Charles II.'s death, and King James II.'s +coronation (which were neither of them remarkable for extraordinary +sickliness or healthfulness) the burials did wonderfully agree, +viz., A.D. 1684, they were 23,202, and A.D. 1685, they were 23,222, +the medium whereof is 23,212. And the christenings did very +wonderfully agree also, having been A.D. 1684, 14,702, and A.D. +1685, 14,732, the medium whereof is 14,716, which consistence was +never seen before, the said number of 23,212 burials making the +people of London to be 696,360, at the rate of one dying per annum +out of 30. + +6. Since the great Fire of London, A.D. 1666, about 7 parts of 15 +of the present vast city hath been new built, and is with its people +increased near one half, and become equal to Paris and Rome put +together, the one being the seat of the great French Monarchy, and +the other of the Papacy. + + + + +FIVE ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC + + + + +I. Objections from the city of Ray in Persia, and from Monsier +Auzout, against two former essays, answered, and that London hath as +many people as Paris, Rome, and Rouen put together. + +II. A comparison between London and Paris in 14 particulars. + +III. Proofs that at London, within its 134 parishes named in the +bills of mortality, there live about 696,000 people. + +IV. An estimate of the people in London, Paris, Amsterdam, Venice, +Rome, Dublin, Bristol, and Rouen, with several observations upon the +same. + +V. Concerning Holland and the rest of the Seven United Provinces. + + + +TO THE KING'S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY + +Sir, + +Your Majesty having graciously accepted my two late essays, about +the cities and hospitals of London and Paris, as also my +observations on Rome and Rouen; I do (after six months' waiting for +what may be said against my several doctrines by the able men of +Europe) humbly present your Majesty with a few other papers upon the +same subject, to strengthen, explain, and enlarge the former; hoping +by such real arguments, better to praise and magnify your Majesty, +than by any other the most specious words and eulogies that can be +imagined by + +Your Majesty's +Most humble, loyal +And obedient subject, +WILLIAM PETTY. + + + +THE FIRST ESSAY. + + + +It could not be expected that an assertion of London's being bigger +than Paris and Rouen, or than Paris and Rome put together, and +bigger than any city of the world, should escape uncontradicted; and +'tis also expected that I (if continuing in the same persuasion), +should make some reply to those contradictions. In order whereunto, + +I begin with the ingenious author of the "Republique des Lettres," +who saith that Rey in Persia is far bigger than London, for that in +the sixth century of Christianity (I suppose, A.D. 550 the middle of +that century), it had 15,000, or rather 44,000 mosques or Mahometan +temples; to which I reply, that I hope this objector is but in jest, +for that Mahomet was not born till about the year 570, and had no +mosques till about 50 years after. + +In the next place I reply to the excellent Monsieur Auzout's +"Letters from Rome," who is content that London, Westminster, and +Southwark may have as many people as Paris and its suburbs; and but +faintly denieth, that all the housing within the bills may have +almost as many people as Paris and Rouen, but saith that several +parishes inserted into these bills are distant from, and not +contiguous with London, and that Grant so understood it. + +To which (as his main if not his only objection) we answer: --(l) +That the London bills appear in Grant's book to have been always, +since the year 1636; as they now are; (2) That about fifty years +since, three or four parishes, formerly somewhat distant, were +joined by interposed buildings to the bulk of the city, and +therefore then inserted into the bills; (3) That since fifty years +the whole buildings being more than double have perfected that +union, so as there is no house within the said bills from which one +may not call to some other house; (4) All this is confirmed by +authority of the king and city, and the custom of fifty years; (5) +That there are but three parishes under any colour of this exception +which are scarce one-fifty-second part of the whole. + +Upon the whole matter, upon sight of Monsieur Auzout's large letter, +dated the 19th of November, from Rome, I made remarks upon every +paragraph thereof, but suppressing it (because it looked like a war +against a worthy person with whom I intended none, whereas, in +truth, it was but a reconciling explication of some doubts) I have +chosen the shorter and softer way of answering Monsieur Auzout as +followeth, viz.:- + +Concerning the number of people in London, as also in Paris, Rouen, +and Rome, viz.:- + +Monsieur Auzout allegeth an authentic account that there are 23,223 +houses in Paris, wherein do live about eighty thousand families, and +therefore supposing three and a half families to live in every of +the said houses, one with another, the number of families will be +81,280; and Monsier Auzout also allowing six heads to each family, +the utmost number of people in Paris, according to that opinion, +will be 487,680. + +The medium of the Paris burials was not denied by Monsier Auzout to +be 19,887, nor that there died 3,506 unnecessarily out of the +L'Hotel Dieu; wherefore deducting the said last number out of the +former, the net standard for burials at Paris will be 16,381, so, as +the number of people there, allowing but one to die out of thirty +(which is more advantageous to Paris than Monsieur Auzout's opinion +of one to die out of twenty-five) the number of people at Paris will +be 491,430 more than by Monsier Auzout's own last-mentioned account +491,430. + +And the medium of the said two Paris accounts is 488,055. + +The medium of the London burials is really 23,212, which, multiplied +by thirty (as hath been done for Paris), the number of the people +there will be 696,360. + +The number of houses at London appears by the register to be +105,315, whereunto adding one-tenth part of the same, or 10,315, as +the least number of double families that can be supposed in London, +the total of families will be 115,840, and allowing six heads for +each family, as was done for Paris, the total of the people at +London will be 695,076. + +The medium of the two last London accounts is 695,718. + +So, as the people of Paris, according to the above account, is +488,055. +Of Rouen, according to Monsieur Auzout's utmost demands 80,000. +Of Rome, according to his own report thereof in a former letter +125,000. +Total 693,055. + +So as there are more people at London than at Paris, Rouen, and Rome +by 2,663. + +Memorandum.--That the parishes of Islington, Newington, and Hackney, +for which only there is any colour of non-contiguity, is not one- +fifty-second part of what is contained in the bills of mortality, +and consequently London, without the said three parishes, hath more +people than Paris and Rouen put together, by 114,284. + +Which number of 114,284 is probably more people than any other city +of France contains. + + + +THE SECOND ESSAY. + + + +As for other comparisons of London with Paris, we farther repeat and +enlarge what hath been formerly said upon those matters, as +followeth, viz.:- + +1. That forty per cent. die out of the hospitals at Paris where so +many die unnecessarily, and scarce one-twentieth of that proportion +out of the hospitals of London, which have been shown to be better +than the best of Paris. + +2. That at Paris 81,280 kitchens are within less than 24,000 +street-doors, which makes less cleanly and convenient way of living +than at London. + +3. Where the number of christenings are near unto, or exceed the +burials, the people are poorer, having few servants and little +equipage. + +4. The river Thames is more pleasant and navigable than the Seine, +and its waters better and more wholesome; and the bridge of London +is the most considerable of all Europe. + +5. The shipping and foreign trade of London is incomparably greater +than that at Paris and Rouen. + +6. The lawyers' chambers at London have 2,772 chimnies in them, and +are worth 140,000 pounds sterling, or 3,000,000 of French livres, +besides the dwellings of their families elsewhere. + +7. The air is more wholesome, for that at London scarce two of +sixteen die out of the worst hospitals, but at Paris above two of +fifteen out of the best. Moreover the burials of Paris are one- +fifth part above and below the medium, but at London not above one- +twelfth, so as the intemperies of the air at Paris is far greater +than at London. + +8. The fuel cheaper, and lies in less room, the coals being a +wholesome sulphurous bitumen. + +9. All the most necessary sorts of victuals, and of fish, are +cheaper, and drinks of all sorts in greater variety and plenty. + +10. The churches of London we leave to be judged by thinking that +nothing at Paris is so great as St. Paul's was, and is like to be, +nor so beautiful as Henry the Seventh's chapel. + +11. On the other hand, it is probable, that there is more money in +Paris than London, if the public revenue (grossly speaking, +quadruple to that of England) be lodged there. + +12. Paris hath not been for these last fifty years so much infested +with the plague as London; now that at London the plague (which +between the years 1591 and 1666 made five returns, viz., every +fifteen years, at a medium, and at each time carried away one-fifth +of the people) hath not been known for the 21 years last past, and +there is a visible way by God's ordinary blessing to lessen the same +by two-thirds when it next appeareth. + +13. As to the ground upon which Paris stands in respect of London, +we say, that if there be five stories or floors of housing at Paris, +for four at London, or in that proportion, then the 82,000 families +of Paris stand upon the equivalent of 65,000 London housteds, and if +there be 115,000 families at London, and but 82,000 at Paris, then +the proportion of the London ground to that of Paris is as 115 to +sixty-five, or as twenty-three to thirteen. + +14. Moreover Paris is said to be an oval of three English miles +long and two and a half broad, the area whereof contains but five +and a half square miles; but London is seven miles long, and one and +a quarter broad at a medium, which makes an area of near nine square +miles, which proportion of five and half to nine differs little from +that of thirteen to twenty-three. + +15. Memorandum, that in Nero's time, as Monsieur Chivreau +reporteth, there died 300,000 people of the plague in old Rome; now +if there died three of ten then and there, being a hotter country, +as there dies two of ten at London, the number of people at that +time, was but a million, whereas at London they are now about +700,000. Moreover the ground within the walls of old Rome was a +circle but of three miles diameter, whose area is about seven square +miles, and the suburbs scarce as much more, in all about thirteen +square miles, whereas the built ground at London is about nine +square miles as aforesaid; which two sorts of proportions agree with +each other, and consequently old Rome seems but to have been half as +big again as the present London, which we offer to antiquaries. + + + +THE THIRD ESSAY. + + + +Proofs that the number of people in the 134 parishes of the London +bills of mortality, without reference to other cities, is about +696,000, viz. - + +I know but three ways of finding the same. + +1. By the houses, and families, and heads living in each. + +2. By the number of burials in healthful times, and by the +proportion of those that live, to those that die. + +3. By the number of those who die of the plague in pestilential +years, in proportion to those that escape. + + +The First Way. + + +To know the number of houses, I used three methods, viz. - + +1. The number of houses which were burnt A.D. 1666, which by +authentic report was 13,200; next what proportion the people who +died out of those houses, bore to the whole; which I find A.D. 1686, +to be but one seventh part, but A.D. 1666 to be almost one-fifth, +from whence I infer the whole housing of London A.D. 1666 to have +been 66,000, then finding the burials A.D. 1666 to be to those of +1686 as 3 to 4,I pitch upon 88,000 to be the number of housing A.D. +1686. + +2. Those who have been employed in making the general map of +London, set forth in the year 1682, told me that in that year they +had found above 84,000 houses to be in London, wherefore A.D. 1686, +or in four years more, there might be one-tenth or 8,400 houses more +(London doubling in forty years) so as the whole, A.D. 1686 might be +92,400. + +3. I found that A.D. 1685, there were 29,325 hearths in Dublin, and +6,400 houses, and in London 388 thousand hearths, whereby there must +have been at that rate 87,000 houses in London. Moreover I found +that in Bristol there were in the same year 16,752 hearth; and 5,307 +houses, and in London 388,000 hearths as aforesaid; at which rate +there must have been 123,000 houses in London, and at a medium +between Dublin and Bristol proportions 105,000 houses. + +Lastly, by certificate from the hearth office, I find the houses +within the bills of mortality to be 105,315. + +Having thus found the houses, I proceed next to the number of +families in them, and first I thought that if there were three or +four families or kitchens in every house of Paris, there might be +two families in one-tenth of the housing of London; unto which +supposition, the common opinion of several friends doth concur with +my own conjectures. + +As to the number of heads in each family, I stick to Grant's +observation in page --- of his fifth edition, that in tradesmen of +London's families there be eight heads one with another, in families +of higher ranks, above ten, and in the poorest near live, according +to which proportions, I had upon another occasion pitched the medium +of heads in all the families of England to be six and one-third, but +quitting the fraction in this case, I agree with Monsieur Auzout for +six. + +To conclude, the houses of London being 105,315 and the addition of +double families 10,531 more, in all 115,846; I multiplied the same +by six, which produced 695,076 for the number of the people. + + +The Second Way. + + +I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, and +both healthful, did wonderfully agree in their burials, viz., 1684 +they were 23,202, and A.D. 1685 23,222, the medium whereof is +23,212; moreover that the christenings 1684 were 14,702, and those +A.D. 1685 were 14,730, wherefore I multiplied the medium of burials +23,212 by 30, supposing that one dies out of 30 at London, which +made the number of people 696,360 souls. + +Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London or thereabouts, I say +- + +1. That Grant in the --- page of his fifth edition, affirmeth from +observation, that 3 died of 88 per annum which is near the same +proportion. + +2. I found that out of healthful places, and out of adult persons, +there dies much fewer, as but one out of 50 among our parliament +men, and that the kings of England having reigned 24 years one with +another, probably lived above 30 years each. + +3. Grant, page --- hath shown that but about one of 20 die per +annum out of young children under 10 years old, and Monsieur Auzout +thinks that but 1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion +of adult persons there, wherefore we still stick as a medium to the +number 30. + +4. In nine country parishes lying in several parts of England, I +find that but one of 37 hath died per annum, or 311 out of 11,507, +wherefore till I see another round number, grounded upon many +observations, nearer than 30, I hope to have done pretty well in +multiplying our burials by 30 to find the number of the people, the +product being 696,360, and what we find by the families they are +695,076, as aforesaid. + + +The Third Way. + + +It was proved by Grant, that one-fifth of the people died of the +plague, but A.D. 1665 there died of the plague near 98,000 persons, +the quintuple whereof is 490,000 as the number of people in the year +1665, whereunto adding above one-third, as the increase between 1665 +and 1686, the total is 653,000, agreeing well enough with the other +two computations above mentioned. + +Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue till a better be +put in its place. + +Memorandum. That two or three hundred new houses would make a +contiguity of two or three other great parishes, with the 134 +already mentioned in the bills of mortality: and that an oval wall +of about twenty miles in compass would enclose the same, and all the +shipping at Deptford and Blackwall, and would also fence in 20,000 +acres of land, and lay the foundation or designation of several vast +advantages to the owners, and inhabitants of that ground, as also to +the whole nation and government. + + + +THE FOURTH ESSAY. + + + +Concerning the proportions of People in the eight eminent Cities of +Christendom undernamed, viz.:- + +1. We have by the number of burials in healthful years, and by the +proportion of the living to those who die yearly, as also by the +number of houses and families within the 134 parishes called London, +and the estimate of the heads in each, pitched upon the number of +people in that city to be at a medium 695,718. + +2. We have, by allowing that at Paris above 80,000 families, viz., +81,280, do live in 23,223 houses, 32 palaces, and 38 colleges, or +that there are 81,280 kitchens within less than 24,000 street doors; +as also by allowing 30 heads for every one that died necessarily +there; we have pitched upon the number of people there at a medium +to be 488,055, nor have we restrained them to 300,000, by allowing +with Monsieur Auzout 6 heads for each of Moreri's 50,000 houses or +families. + +3. To Amsterdam we allow 187,350 souls, viz., 30 times the number +of their burials, which were 6,245 in the year 1685. + +4. To Venice we allow 134,000 souls, as found there in a special +account taken by authority, about ten years since, when the city +abounded with such as returned from Candia, then surrendered to the +Turks. + +5. To Rome we allow 119,000 Christians, and 6,000 Jews, in all +125,000 souls, according to an account sent thither of the same by +Monsieur Auzout. + +6. To Dublin we allow (as to Amsterdam) 30 times its burials, the +medium whereof for the last two years is 2,303, viz., 69,090 souls. + +7. As to Bristol, we say that if the 6,400 houses of Dublin give +69,090 people, that the 5,307 houses of Bristol must give above +56,000 people. Moreover, if the 29,325 hearths of Dublin give +69,090 people, the 16,752 hearths of Bristol must give about 40,000; +but the medium of 56,000 and 40,000 is 48,000. + +8. As for Rouen, we have no help, but Monsieur Auzout's fancy of +80,000 souls to be in that city, and the conjecture of knowing men +that Rouen is between the one-seventh and one-eighth part of Paris, +and also that it is by a third bigger than Bristol; by all which, we +estimate, till farther light, that Rouen hath at most but 66,000 +people in it. + +Now it may be wondered why we mentioned Rouen at all, having had so +little knowledge of it; whereunto we answer, that we did not think +it just to compare London with Paris, as to shipping and foreign +trade, without adding Rouen thereunto, Rouen being to Paris as that +part of London which is below the bridge, is to what is above it. + +All which we heartily submit to the correction of the curious and +candid, in the meantime observing according to the gross numbers +under-mentioned. + + +London 696,000 +Paris 488,000 +Amsterdam 187,000 +Venice 134,000 +Rome 125,000 +Dublin 69,000 +Bristol 48,000 +Rouen 66,000 + + +Observations on the said Eight Cities. + + +1. That the people of Paris being 488,000 + Rome 125,000 + Rouen 66,000 + do make in all but 679,000 + +or 17,000 less than the 696,000 of London alone. + +2. That the people of the two English cities and emporiums--viz., +of London, 696,000, and Bristol, 48,000--do make 744,000, or more +than + +In Paris 488,000 +Amsterdam 187,090 +Rouen 66,000 +Being in all 741,000 + +3. That the same two English cities seem equivalent + +To Paris, which hath 488,000 souls. + Rouen 66,000 + Lyons 100,000 + Toulouse 90,000 +In all 744,000 + +If there be any error in these conjectures concerning these cities +of France, we hope they will be mended by those whom we hear to be +now at work upon that matter. + +4. That the King of England's three cities, viz. + +London 696,000 { Paris 488,000 +Dublin 69,000 exceed { Amsterdam 187,000 +Bristol 48,000 { Venice 134,000 +In all 813,000 Being but 809,000 + +5. That of the four great emporiums, London, Amsterdam, Venice, and +Rouen, London alone is near double to the other three, viz., above 7 +to 4. + +Amsterdam 187,000 } +Venice 134,000 } 387,000 +Rouen 66,000 } 2 + 774,000 London 696,000 + +6. That London, for aught appears, is the greatest and most +considerable city of the world, but manifestly the greatest +emporium. + +When these assertions have passed the examen of the critics, we +shall make another essay, showing how to apply those truths to the +honour and profit of the King and Kingdom of England. + + + +THE FIFTH ESSAY. + + + +Concerning Holland and the rest of the United Provinces. + +Since the close of this paper, it hath been objected from Holland, +that what hath been said of the number of houses and people in +London is not like to be true; for that if it were, then London +would be the two-thirds of the whole Province of Holland. To which +is answered, that London is the two-thirds of all Holland, and more, +that province having not 1,044,000 inhabitants (whereof 696,000 is +the two-thirds), nor above 800,000, as we have credibly and often +heard. For suppose Amsterdam hath--as we have elsewhere noted-- +187,000, the seven next great cities at 30,000 each, one with +another, 210,000, the ten next at 15,000 each 150,000, the ten +smallest at 6,000 each 60,000--in all, the twenty-eight walled +cities and towns of Holland 607,000; in the dorps and villages +193,000, which is about one head for every four acres of land; +whereas in England there is eight acres for every head, without the +cities and market-towns. + +Now, suppose London, having 116,000 families, should have seven +heads in each--the medium between MM. Auzout's and Grant's +reckonings--the total of the people would be 812,000; or if we +reckon that there dies one out of thirty-four--the medium between +thirty and thirty-seven above mentioned--the total of the people +would be thirty-four times 23,212, viz., 789,208, the medium between +which number and the above 812,000 is 800,604, somewhat exceeding +800,000, the supposed number of Holland. + +Furthermore, I say that upon former searches into the peopling of +the world, I never found that in any country--not in China itself-- +there was more than one man to every English acre of land: many +territories passing for well-peopled where there is but one man for +ten such acres. I found by measuring Holland and West Frisia (alias +North Holland) upon the best maps, that it contained but as many +such acres as London doth of people, viz., about 696,000 acres. I +therefore venture to pronounce (till better informed) that the +people of London are as many as those of Holland, or at least above +two-thirds of the same, which is enough to disable the objection +above mentioned; nor is there any need to strain up London from +696,000 to 800,000, though competent reasons have been given to that +purpose, and though the author of the excellent map of London, set +forth A.D. 1682, reckoned the people thereof (as by the said map +appears) to be 1,200,000, even when he thought the houses of the +same to be but 85,000. + +The worthy person who makes this objection in the same letter also +saith - + +1. That the province of Holland hath as many people as the other +six united provinces together, and as the whole kingdom of England, +and double to the city of Paris and its suburbs; that is to say, +2,000,000 souls. 2. He says that in London and Amsterdam, and +other trading cities, there are ten heads to every family, and that +in Amsterdam there are not 22,000 families. 3. He excepteth +against the register alleged by Monsieur Auzout, which makes 23,223 +houses and above 80,000 families to be in Paris; as also against the +register alleged by Petty, making 105,315 houses to be in London, +with a tenth part of the same to be of families more than houses; +and probably will except against the register of 1,163 houses to be +in all England, that number giving, at six and one-third heads to +each family, about 7,000,000 people, upon all which we remark as +follows, viz.:- + +1. That if Paris doth contain but 488,000 souls, that then all +Holland containeth but the double of that number, or 976,000, +wherefore London, containing 696,000 souls, hath above two-thirds of +all Holland by 46,000. + +2. If Paris containeth half as many people as there are in all +England, it must contain 3,500,000 souls, or above seven times +488,000; and because there do not die 20,000 per annum out of Paris, +there must die but one out of 175; whereas Monsieur Auzout thinks +that there dies one out of 25, and there must live 149 heads in +every house of Paris mentioned in the register, but there must be +scarce two heads in every house of England, all which we think fit +to be reconsidered. + +I must, as an Englishman, take notice of one point more, which is, +that these assertions do reflect upon the empire of England, for +that it is said that England hath but 2,000,000 inhabitants, and it +might as well have been added, that Scotland and Ireland, with the +Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, have but two-fifths of the +same number, or 800,000 more, or that all the King of England's +subjects in Europe are but 2,800,000 souls, whereas he saith that +the subjects of the seven united provinces are 4,000,000. To which +we answer that the subjects of the said seven provinces are, by this +objector's own showing, but the quadruple of Paris, or 1,932,000 +souls, Paris containing but 488,000, as afore hath been proved, and +we do here affirm that England hath 7,000,000 people, and that +Scotland, Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, +hath two-fifths of the said number, or 2,800,000 more, in all +9,800,000; whereas by the objector's doctrine, if the seven +provinces have 1,932,000 people, the King of England's territories +should have but seven-tenths of the same number, viz., 1,351,000, +whereas we say 9,800,000, as aforesaid, which difference is so gross +as that it deserves to be thus reflected upon. + +To conclude, we expect from the concerned critics of the world that +they would prove - + +1. That Holland, and West Frisia, and the twenty-eight towns and +cities thereof, hath more people than London alone. + +2. That any three of the best cities of France, any two of all +Christendom, or any one of the world, hath the same, or better +housing, and more foreign trade than London, even in the year that +King James the Second came to the empire thereof. + + + + +OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. + + + + +Founded upon the Calculations of Gregory King, Lancaster Herald, and +forming part of "An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a +People gainers in the Balance of Trade." Published in 1699. + + +The writer of these papers has seen the natural and political +observations and conclusions upon the state and condition of England +by Gregory King, Esq., Lancaster Herald, in manuscript. The +calculations therein contained are very accurate, and more perhaps +to be relied upon than anything that has been ever done of the like +kind. This skilful and laborious gentleman has taken the right +course to form his several schemes about the numbers of the people, +for besides many different ways of working, he has very carefully +inspected the poll-books, and the distinctions made by those acts, +and the produce in many of the respective polls, going everywhere by +reasonable and discreet mediums: besides which pains, he has made +observations of the very facts in particular towns and places, from +which he has been able to judge and conclude more safely of others, +so that he seems to have looked further into this mystery than any +other person. + +With his permission, we shall offer to the public such of his +computations as may be of use, and enlighten in the matter before +us. + +He lays down that if the first peopling of England was by a colony +or colonies, consisting of a number between 100 and 1,000 people +(which seems probable), such colony or colonies might be brought +over between the year of the world 2400 and 2600, viz., about 800 or +900 years after the Flood, and 1,400 or 1,500 years before the birth +of Christ, at which time the world might have about 1,000,000 +families, and 4,000,000 or 5,000,000 people. + +From which hypothesis it will follow by an orderly series of +increase - + +That when the Romans invaded England fifty-three years before +Christ's time, the kingdom might have about 360,000 people, and at +Christ's birth about 400,000. + +That at the Norman Conquest, A.D. 1066, the kingdom might contain +somewhat above 2,000,000. + +That A.D. 1260, or about 200 years after the Norman Conquest, it +might contain about 2,750,000 people, or half the present number: +so that the people of England may have doubled in about 435 years +last past. + +That in all probability the next doubling will be in about 600 years +to come, viz., by the year 2300, at which time it may have about +11,000,000 people, and the kingdom containing about 39,000,000 of +acres, there will be then about three acres and a half per head. + +That the increase of the kingdom for every hundred years of the last +preceding term of doubling, and the subsequent term of doubling, may +have been and in all probability may be, according to the following +scheme:- + + +Anno Number of Increase every +Domini. people. hundred years. +1300 2,800,000 +1400 3,300,000 440,000. +1500 3,840,000 540,000. +1600 4,620,000 780,000. +1700 5,500,000 880,000. +1800 6,420,000 920,000. +1900 7,350,000 930,000. +2000 8,280,000 930,000. +2100 9,205,000 925,000. +2200 10,115,000 910,000. +2300 11,000,000 885,000. + +Whereby it may appear that the increase of the kingdom being 880,000 +people in the last hundred years, and 920,000 in the next succeeding +hundred years, the annual increase at this time may be about 9,000 +souls per annum. + +But whereas the yearly births of the + kingdom are about 1 in 28.95, or 190,000 souls. +And the yearly burials 1 in 32.35 or 170,000 souls. +Whereby the yearly increase would be 20,000 souls. + +It is to be noted-- Per ann. + +1. That the allowance for + plagues and great mortalities + may come to at a medium 4,000 +2. Foreign or civil wars at a + medium 3,500 +3. The sea constantly employing 11,000 per annum. + about 40,000, may precipitate 2,500 + the death of about +4. The plantations (over and above + the accession of foreigners) 1,000 + may carry away +Whereby the net annual increase may +be but 9,000 souls. + +That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the annual increase of +the kingdom by procreation, were it not for the before-mentioned +abatements. + +The country increases annually + by procreation 20,000 souls. +The cities and towns, exclusive + of London, by procreation 2,000 souls. +But London and the bills of + mortality decrease annually 2,000 souls. + + +So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls per annum to keep it +from decreasing, besides a further supply of about 3,000 per annum +for its increase at this time. In all 5,000, or above a half of the +kingdom's net increase. + +Mr. King further observes that by the assessments on marriages, +births, and burials, and the collectors' returns thereupon, and by +the parish registers, it appears that the proportions of marriages, +births, and burials are according to the following scheme + + +Vide Scheme A. + + +Whence it may be observed that in 10,000 coexisting persons there +are 71 or 72 marriages in the country, producing 343 children; 78 +marriages in towns producing 351 children; 94 marriages in London, +producing 376 children. + +Whereby it follows - + +1. That though each marriage in London produces fewer people than +in the country, yet London in general having a greater proportion of +breeders, is more prolific than the other great towns, and the great +towns are more prolific than the country. + +2. That if the people of London of all ages were as long-lived as +those in the country, London would increase in people much faster +pro rata than the country. + +3. That the reasons why each marriage in London produces fewer +children than the country marriages seem to be - + +(1) From the more frequent fornications and adulteries. + +(2) From a greater luxury and intemperance. + +(3) From a greater intentness on business. + +(4) From the unhealthfulness of the coal smoke. + +(5) From a greater inequality of age between the husbands and wives. + +(6) From the husbands and wives not living so long as in the +country. + +He further observes, accounting the people to be 5,500,000, that the +said five millions and a half (including the transitory people and +vagrants) appear by the assessments on marriages, births, and +burials, to bear the following proportions in relation to males and +females, and other distinctions of the people, viz.:- + + +SCHEMA A + + +People Annual Marriages +Producing + +children + In all each + +530,000 London and bills of mortality 1 in 106 5,000 4.0 +870,000 The cities and market towns 1 in 128 6,800 4.5 +4,100,000 The villages and hamlets 1 in 141 29,200 4.8 +5,500,000 1 in 134 41,000 +4.64 + + Annual Births Annual Burials + In all In +all +London and bills of mortality 1 in 26.5 20,000 1 in 24.1 +22,000 +The cities and market towns 1 in 28.5 30,600 1 in 30.4 +28,600 +The villages and hamlets 1 in 29.4 29,200 1 in 34.4 +119,400 + 1 in 28.95 190,000 1 in 32.35 +170,000 + + +Vide Scheme B. + + +So that the number of communicants is in all 3,260,000 souls; and +the number of fighting men between sixteen and sixty is 1,308,000. + +SCHEME B. + + Males Females Males Females Both +In London and 10 to 13 230,000 300,000 530,000 + bills of mortality +In the other cities 8 to 9 410,000 460,000 870,000 + and market-towns +In the villages and 100 to 99 2,060,000 2,040,000 4,100,000 + hamlets + 27 to 28 2,700,000 2,800,000 5,500,000 + +That as to other distinctions they appear by the said assessments to +bear these proportions. + + People. Males. Females. +Husbands and wives 1,900,000 950,000 950,000 + at above, 34.5% +Widowers at above 1.5% 90,000 90,000 +Widows at about 4.5% 240,000 240,000 +Children at above 45% 2,500,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 +Servants at about 10.5% 560,000 260,000 300,000 +Sojourners and + single persons 4% 210,000 100,000 110,000 + 100% 5,500,000 2,700,000 2,800,000 + +And that the different proportions in each of the said articles +between London, the great towns, and the villages, may the better +appear, he has formed the following scheme:- + + London and Bills The other Cities The Villages and + of Mortality. and great Towns. Hamlets. + Souls. Souls. Souls. +Husbands +and +Wives 37% 196,100 36% 313,200 34% 1,394,000 +Widowers 2% 10,600 2% 17,400 1.5% 61,500 +Widows 7% 37,100 6% 52,200 4.5% 184,500 +Children 33% 174,900 40% 348,000 47% 1,927,000 +Servants 13% 68,900 11% 95,700 10% 410,000 +Sojourners 8% 42,400 5% 43,500 3% 123,000 + 100% 530,000 100% 870,000 100% 4,100,000 + + +SCHEME B (Continued) + + +He further observes, supposing the people to be 5,500,000, that the +yearly births of the Kingdom may be 190,000, and that the several +ages of the people may be as follows: + + + In all Males +Females +Those under 1 years old 170,000 88,500 +81,500 +Those under 5 years old 820,000 413,300 +406,700 +Those under 10 years old 1,520,000 762,900 +757,100 +Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 1,578,000 +1,682,000 +Those above 21 years old 2,700,000 1,300,000 +1,400,000 +Those above 25 years old 2,400,000 1,152,000 +1,248,000 +Those above 60 years old 600,000 270,000 +330,000 +Those under 16 years old 2,240,000 +Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 +Total of the people 5,500,000 + + +That the bachelors are about 28 per cent. of the whole, whereof +those under twenty-five years are 25.5 per cent., and those above +twenty-five years are 2.5 per cent. + +That the maidens are about 28.5 per cent. of the whole. + +Whereof those under 25 years are 26.5 per cent. + +And those above 25 years are 2 per cent. + +That the males and females in the kingdom in general are aged, one +with another, 27 years and a half. + +That in the kingdom in general there is near as many people living +under 20 years of age as there is above 20, whereof half of the +males are under 19, and one half of the females are under 21 years. + +That the ages of the people, according to their several +distinctions, are as follows, viz.:- + + +Vide Scheme C. + + +Having thus stated the numbers of the people, he gives a scheme of +the income and expense of the several families of England, +calculated for the year 1688. + +SCHEME C + + +The husbands are aged 43 years apiece, which, at 17.25% makes 742 +years. +The wives 40 17.25% 690 +The widowers 56 1.5% 84 +The widows 60 4.5% 270 +The children 12 45% 540 +The servants 27 10.5% 284 +The sojourners 35 4% 140 +At a medium 27.5 100 2,750 + + + +Vide Scheme D. + + +Mr. King's modesty has been so far overruled as to suffer us to +communicate these his excellent computations, which we can the more +safely commend, having examined them very carefully, tried them by +some little operations of our own upon the same subject, and +compared them with the schemes of other persons, who take pleasure +in the like studies. + +What he says concerning the number of the people to be 5,500,000 is +no positive assertion, nor shall we pretend anywhere to determine in +that matter; what he lays down is by way of hypothesis, that +supposing the inhabitants of England to have been, A.D. 1300, +2,860,000 heads, by the orderly series of increase allowed of by all +writers they may probably be about A.D. 1700, 5,500,000 heads; but +if they were A.D. 1300 either less or more, the case must +proportionably alter; for as to his allowances for plagues, great +mortalities, civil wars, the sea, and the plantations, they seem +very reasonable, and not well to be controverted. + +Upon these schemes of Mr. King we shall make several remarks, though +the text deserves much a better comment. + + + +SCHEME D.--A SCHEME OF THE INCOME AND EXPENSE OF THE SEVERAL + FAMILIES OF ENGLAND, CALCULATED FOR THE YEAR + 1688 +Number of Ranks, Degrees and Heads per + Families. Qualifications Family. + 160 Temporal Lords 40 + 26 Spiritual Lords 20 + 800 Baronets 16 + 600 Knights 13 + 3,000 Esquires 10 + 12,000 Gentlemen 8 + 5,000 Persons in greater offices and places 8 + 5,000 Persons in lesser offices and places 6 + 2,000 Eminent merchants and traders by sea 8 + 8,000 Lesser merchants and traders by sea 6 + 10,000 Persons in the law 7 + 2,000 Eminent clergymen 6 + 8,000 Lesser clergymen 5 + 40,000 Freeholders of the better sort 7 + 120,000 Freeholders of the lesser sort 5.5 + 150,000 Farmers 5 + 15,000 Persons in liberal arts and sciences 5 + 50,000 Shopkeepers and tradesmen 4.5 + 60,000 Artisans and handicrafts 4 + 5,000 Naval officers 4 + 4,000 Military officers 4 + 500,586 5.33 + 50,000 Common seamen 3 + 364,000 Labouring people and out-servants 3.5 + 400,000 Cottagers and paupers 3.25 + 35,000 Common soldiers 2 + 849,000 + Vagrants, as gipsies, thieves, + beggars, &c. 3.25 + 500,586 Increasing the wealth of the kingdom 5.33 + 849,000 Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom 3.25 +1,349,586 Net totals 4 1/13 + + +[The previous table continues but is too wide for the page. It has +been split down the middle--DP.] + + + Number Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly + of Income Income Income Expense Increase Incr. + Persons per. in per. per per. in + Family general Hd. Hd. Hd. General + P. s. P. P. s. P. s. d. P.s. d. P. + 6,400 3,200 0 512,000 80 0 70 0 0 10 0 0 64,000 + 520 1,300 0 33,800 65 0 45 0 0 20 0 0 10,400 + 12,800 880 0 704,000 55 0 49 0 0 6 0 0 76,800 + 7,800 650 0 390,000 50 0 45 0 0 5 0 0 39,000 + 30,000 450 0 1,200,000 45 0 41 0 0 4 0 0 120,000 + 96,000 280 0 2,880,000 35 0 32 0 0 3 0 0 288,000 + 40,000 240 0 1,200,000 30 0 26 0 0 4 0 0 160,000 + 30,000 120 0 600,000 20 0 17 0 0 3 0 0 90,000 + 16,000 400 0 800,000 50 0 37 0 0 13 0 0 208,000 + 48,000 198 0 1,600,000 33 0 27 0 0 6 0 0 288,000 + 70,000 154 0 1,540,000 22 0 18 0 0 4 0 0 280,000 + 12,000 72 0 144,000 12 0 10 0 0 2 0 0 24,000 + 40,000 50 0 400,000 10 0 9 4 0 0 16 0 32,000 + 280,000 91 0 3,640,000 13 0 11 15 0 1 5 0 350,000 + 660,000 55 0 6,600,000 10 0 9 10 0 0 10 0 330,000 + 750,000 42 10 6,375,000 8 10 8 5 0 0 5 0 187,500 + 75,000 60 0 900,000 12 0 11 0 0 1 0 0 75,000 + 225,000 45 0 2,250,000 10 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 225,000 + 240,000 38 0 2,280,000 9 10 9 0 0 0 10 0 120,000 + 20,000 80 0 400,000 20 0 18 0 0 2 0 0 40,000 + 16,000 60 0 240,000 15 0 14 0 0 1 0 0 16,000 +2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 l1 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700 + Decrease.Decrease. + 150,000 20 0 1,000,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 75,000 +1,275,000 15 0 5,460,000 4 10 4 12 0 0 2 0 127,500 +1,300,000 6 10 2,000,000 2 0 2 5 0 0 5 0 325,000 + 70,000 14 0 490,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 35,000 +2,795,000 10 10 8,950,000 3 5 3 9 0 0 4 0 562,500 + 30,000 60,000 2 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 60,000 + So the General Account is +2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 11 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700 +2,825,000 10 10 9,010,000 3 3 3 7 6 0 4 6 622,500 +5,500,520 32 5 43,491,800 7 18 7 9 3 0 8 9 2,401,200 + +The people being the first matter of power and wealth, by whose +labour and industry a nation must be gainers in the balance, their +increase or decrease must be carefully observed by any government +that designs to thrive; that is, their increase must be promoted by +good conduct and wholesome laws, and if they have been decreased by +war, or any other accident, the breach is to be made up as soon as +possible, for it is a maim in the body politic affecting all its +parts. + +Almost all countries in the world have been more or less populous, +as liberty and property have been there well or ill secured. The +first constitution of Rome was no ill-founded government, a kingly +power limited by laws; and the people increased so fast, that, from +a small beginning, in the reign of their sixth king were they able +to send out an army of 80,000 men. And in the time of the +commonwealth, in that invasion which the Gauls made upon Italy, not +long before Hannibal came thither, they were grown so numerous, as +that their troops consisted of 700,000 foot and 70,000 horse; it is +true their allies were comprehended in this number, but the ordinary +people fit to bear arms being mustered in Rome and Campania, +amounted to 250,000 foot and 23,000 horse. + +Nothing, therefore, can more contribute to the rendering England +populous and strong than to have liberty upon a right footing, and +our legal constitution firmly preserved. A nation may be as well +called free under a limited kingship as in a commonwealth, and it is +to this good form of our government that we partly owe that doubling +of the people which has probably happened here in the 435 years last +past. And if the ambition of some, and the mercenary temper of +others, should bring us at any time to alter our constitution, and +to give up our ancient rights, we shall find our numbers diminish +visibly and fast. For liberty encourages procreation, and not only +keeps our own inhabitants among us, but invites strangers to come +and live under the shelter of our laws. + +The Romans, indeed, made use of an adventitious help to enlarge +their city, which was by incorporating foreign cities and nations +into their commonwealth; but this way is not without its mischiefs. +For the strangers in Rome by degrees had grown so numerous, and to +have so great a vote in the councils, that the whole Government +began to totter, and decline from its old to its new inhabitants, +which Fabius the censor observing, he applied a remedy in time by +reducing all the new citizens into four tribes, that being +contracted into so narrow a space, they might not have so malignant +an influence upon the city. + +An Act of general naturalisation would likewise probably increase +our numbers very fast, and repair what loss we may have suffered in +our people by the late war. It is a matter that has been very +warmly contended for by many good patriots; but peradventure it +carries also its danger with it, which perhaps would have the less +influence by this expedient, namely, if an Act of Parliament were +made, that no heads of families hereafter to be naturalised for the +first generation, should have votes in any of our elections. But as +the case stands, it seems against the nature of right government +that strangers (who may be spies, and who may have an interest +opposite to that of England, and who at best ever join in one link +of obsequiousness to the Ministers) should be suffered to +intermeddle in that important business of sending members to +Parliament. From their sons indeed there is less to fear, who by +birth and nature may come to have the same interest and inclinations +as the natives. + +And though the expedient of Fabius Maximus, to contract the +strangers into four tribes, might be reasonable where the affairs of +a whole empire were transacted by magistrates chosen in one city, +yet the same policy may not hold good in England; foreigners cannot +influence elections here by being dispersed about in the several +counties of the kingdom, where they can never come to have any +considerable strength. But some time or other they may endanger the +government by being suffered to remain, such vast numbers of them +here in London where they inhabit altogether, at least 30,000 +persons in two quarters of the town, without intermarrying with the +English, or learning our language, by which means for several years +to come they are in a way still to continue foreigners, and perhaps +may have a foreign interest and foreign inclinations; to permit this +cannot be advisable or safe. It may therefore be proper to limit +any new Acts of naturalisation with such restrictions as may make +the accession of strangers not dangerous to the public. + +An accession of strangers, well regulated, may add to our strength +and numbers; but then it must be composed of labouring men, +artificers, merchants, and other rich men, and not of foreign +soldiers, since such fright and drive away from a nation more people +than their troops can well consist of: for if it has been ever seen +that men abound most where there is most freedom (China excepted, +whose climate excels all others, and where the exercise of the +tyranny is mild and easy) it must follow that people will in time +desert those countries whose best flower is their liberties, if +those liberties are thought precarious or in danger. That foreign +soldiers are dangerous to liberty, we may produce examples from all +countries and all ages; but we shall instance only one, because it +is eminent above all the rest. + +The Carthaginians, in their wars, did very much use mercenary and +foreign troops; and when the peace was made between them and the +Romans, after a long dispute for the dominion of Sicily, they +brought their army home to be paid and disbanded, which Gesco, their +General, had the charge of embarking, who did order all his part +with great dexterity and wisdom. But the State of Carthage wanting +money to clear arrears, and satisfy the troops, was forced to keep +them up longer than was designed. The army consisted of Gauls, +Ligurians, Baleareans, and Greeks. At first they were insolent in +their quarters in Carthage, and were prevailed upon to remove to +Sicca, where they were to remain and expect their pay. There they +grew presently corrupted with ease and pleasure, and fell into +mutinies and disorder, and to making extravagant demands of pay and +gratuities; and in a rage, with their arms in their hands, they +marched 20,000 of them towards Carthage, encamping within fifteen +miles of the city; and chose Spendius and Matho, two profligate +wretches, for their leaders, and imprisoned Gesco, who was deputed +to them from the commonwealth. Afterwards they caused almost all +the Africans, their tributaries, to revolt; they grew in a short +time to be 70,000 strong; they fought several battles with Hanno and +Hamilcar Barcas. During these transactions, the mercenaries that +were in garrison in Sardinia mutinied likewise, murdering their +commander and all the Carthaginians; while Spendius and Matho, to +render their accomplices more desperate, put Gesco to a cruel death, +presuming afterwards to lay siege to Carthage itself. They met with +a shock indeed at Prion, where 40,000 of them were slaughtered; but +soon after this battle, in another they took one of the Carthaginian +generals prisoner, whom they fixed to a cross, crucifying thirty of +the principal senators round about him. Spendius and Matho were at +last taken, the one crucified and the other tormented to death: but +the war lasted three years and near four months with excessive +cruelty; in which the State of Carthage lost several battles, and +was often brought within a hair's-breadth of utter ruin. + +If so great a commonwealth as Carthage, though assisted at that time +by Hiero, King of Syracuse, and by the Romans, ran the hazard of +losing their empire, city, and liberties, by the insurrection of a +handful of mercenaries, whose first strength was but 20,000 men; it +should be a warning to all free nations how they suffer armies so +composed to be among them, and it should frighten a wise State from +desiring such an increase of people as may be had by the bringing +over foreign soldiers. + +Indeed, all armies whatsoever, if they are over-large, tend to the +dispeopling of a country, of which our neighbour nation is a +sufficient proof, where in one of the best climates in Europe men +are wanting to till the ground. For children do not proceed from +the intemperate pleasures taken loosely and at random, but from a +regular way of living, where the father of the family desires to +rear up and provide for the offspring he shall beget. + +Securing the liberties of a nation may be laid down as a fundamental +for increasing the numbers of its people; but there are other +polities thereunto conducing which no wise State has ever neglected. + +No race of men did multiply so fast as the Jews, which may be +attributed chiefly to the wisdom of Moses their Lawgiver, in +contriving to promote the state of marriage. + +The Romans had the same care, paying no respect to a man childless +by his own fault, and giving great immunities and privileges, both +in the city and provinces, to those who had such and such a number +of children. Encouragements of the like kind are also given in +France to such as enrich the commonwealth by a large issue. + +But we in England have taken another course, laying a fine upon the +marriage bed, which seems small to those who only contemplate the +pomp and wealth round about them, and in their view; but they who +look into all the different ranks of men are well satisfied that +this duty on marriages and births is a very grievous burden upon the +poorer sort, whose numbers compose the strength and wealth of any +nation. This tax was introduced by the necessity of affairs. It is +difficult to say what may be the event of a new thing; but if we are +to take measures from past wisdom, which exempted prolific families +from public duties, we should not lay impositions upon those who +find it hard enough to maintain themselves. If this tax be such a +weight upon the poor as to discourage marriage and hinder +propagation, which seems the truth, no doubt it ought to be +abolished; and at a convenient time we ought to change it for some +other duty, if there were only this single reason, that it is so +directly opposite to the polity of all ages and all countries. + +In order to have hands to carry on labour and manufactures, which +must make us gainers in the balance of trade, we ought not to deter, +but rather invite men to marry, which is to be done by privileges +and exemptions for such a number of children, and by denying certain +offices of trust and dignities to all unmarried persons; and where +it is once made a fashion among those of the better sort, it will +quickly obtain with the lower degree. + +Mr. King, in his scheme (for which he has as authentic grounds as +perhaps the matter is capable of) lays down that the annual +marriages of England are about 41,000, which is one marriage out of +every 134 persons. Upon which, we observe, that this is not a due +proportion, considering how few of our adult males (in comparison +with other countries) perish by war or any other accident; from +whence may be inferred that our polity is some way or other +defective, or the marriages would bear a nearer proportion with the +gross number of our people; for which defect, if a remedy can be +found, there will be so much more strength added to the kingdom. + +From the books of assessment on births, marriages, &c., by the +nearest view he can make, he divides the 5,500,000 people into +2,700,000 males and 2,800,000 females; from whence (considering the +females exceed the males in number, and considering that the men +marry later than women, and that many of the males are of necessity +absent in the wars, at sea, and upon other business) it follows that +a large proportion of the females remain unmarried, though at an +adult age, which is a dead loss to the nation, every birth being as +so much certain treasure, upon which account such laws must be for +the public good, as induce all men to marry whose circumstances +permit it. + +From his division of the people it may be likewise observed, that +the near proportion there is between the males and females (which is +said to hold also in other places) is an argument (and the strongest +that can be produced) against polygamy, and the increase of mankind +which some think might be from thence expected; for if Nature had +intended to one man a plurality of wives, she would have ordered a +great many more female births than male, her designments being +always right and wise. + +The securing the parish for bastard children is become so small a +punishment and so easily compounded, that it very much hinders +marriage. The Dutch compel men of all ranks to marry the woman whom +they have got with child, and perhaps it would tend to the further +peopling of England if the common people here, under such a certain +degree, were condemned by some new law to suffer the same penalty. + +A country that makes provision to increase in inhabitants, whose +situation is good, and whose people have a genius adapted to trade, +will never fail to be gainers in the balance, provided the labour +and industry of their people be well managed and carefully directed. + +The more any man contemplates these matters the more he will come to +be of opinion, that England is capable of being rendered one of the +strongest nations, and the richest spot of ground in Europe. + +It is not extent of territory that makes a country powerful, but +numbers of men well employed, convenient ports, a good navy, and a +soil producing all sort of commodities. The materials for all this +we have, and so improvable, that if we did but second the gifts of +Nature with our own industry we should soon arrive to a pitch of +greatness that would put us at least upon an equal footing with any +of our neighbours. + +If we had the complement of men our land can maintain and nourish; +if we had as much trade as our stock and knowledge in sea affairs is +capable of embracing; if we had such a naval strength as a trade so +extended would easily produce; and, if we had those stores and that +wealth which is the certain result of a large and well-governed +traffic, what human strength could hurt or invade us? On the +contrary, should we not be in a posture not only to resist but to +give the law to others? + +Our neighbouring commonwealth has not in territory above 8,000,000 +acres, and perhaps not much above 2,200,000 people, and yet what a +figure have they made in Europe for these last 100 years? What wars +have they maintained? What forces have they resisted? and to what a +height of power are they now come, and all by good order and wise +government? + +They are liable to frequent invasions; they labour under the +inconvenience and danger of bad ports; they consume immense sums +every year to defend their land against the sea; all which +difficulties they have subdued by an unwearied industry. + +We are fenced by nature against foreign enemies, our ports are safe, +we fear no irruptions of the sea, our land territory at home is at +least 39,000,000 acres. We have in all likelihood not less than +5,500,000 people. What a nation might we then become, if all these +advantages were thoroughly improved, and if a right application were +made of all this strength and of these numbers? + +They who apprehend the immoderate growth of any prince or State may, +perhaps, succeed by beginning first, and by attempting to pull down +such a dangerous neighbour, but very often their good designs are +disappointed. In all appearance they proceed more safely, who, +under such a fear, make themselves strong and powerful at home. And +this was the course which Philip, King of Macedon, the father of +Perseus, took, when he thought to be invaded by the Romans. + +The greatness of Rome gave Carthage very anxious thoughts, and it +rather seems that they entered into the second Punic War more for +fear the Romans should have the universal empire, than out of any +ambition to lord it themselves over the whole world. Their design +was virtuous, and peradventure wise to endeavour at some early +interruption to a rival that grew so fast. However, we see they +miscarried, though their armies were led by Hannibal. But fortune +which had determined the dominion of the earth for Rome, did, +perhaps, lead them into the fatal counsel of passing the Eber +contrary to the articles of peace concluded with Asdrubal, and of +attacking Saguntum before they had sufficiently recovered of the +wounds they had suffered in the wars about Sicily, Sardinia, and +with their own rebels. If the high courage of Hannibal had not +driven the commonwealth into a new war while it was yet faint and +weak, and if they had been suffered to pursue their victories in +Spain, and to get firm footing in that rich, warlike, and then +populous country, very probably in a few years they might have been +a more equal match for the Roman people. It is true, if the Romans +had endeavoured, at the conquest of Spain, and if they had disturbed +the Carthaginians in that country, the war must have been +unavoidable, because it was evident in that age, and will be +apparent in the times we live in, that whatever foreign power, +already grown great, can add to its dominion the possession of +Spain, will stand fair for universal empire. + +But unless some such cogent reason of state, as is here instanced, +intervene, in all appearance the best way for a nation that +apprehends the growing power of any neighbour is to fortify itself +within; we do not mean by land armies, which rather debilitate than +strengthen a country, but by potent navies, by thrift in the public +treasure, care of the people's trade, and all the other honest and +useful arts of peace. + +By such an improvement of our native strength, agreeable to the laws +and to the temper of a free nation, England without doubt may be +brought to so good a posture and condition of defending itself, as +not to apprehend any neighbour jealous of its strength or envious of +its greatness. + +And to this end we open these schemes, that a wise Government under +which we live, not having any designs to become arbitrary, may see +what materials they have to work upon, and how far our native wealth +is able to second their good intentions of preserving us a rich and +a free people. + +Having said something of the number of our inhabitants, we shall +proceed to discourse of their different degrees and ranks, and to +examine who are a burden and who are a profit to the public, for by +how much every part and member of the commonwealth can be made +useful to the whole, by so much a nation will be more and more a +gainer in this balance of trade which we are to treat of. + +Mr. King, from the assessments on births and marriages, and from the +polls, has formed the scheme here inserted, of the ranks, degrees, +titles and qualifications of the people. He has done it so +judiciously, and upon such grounds, that is well worth the careful +perusal of any curious person, from thence we shall make some +observations in order to put our present matter in a clearer light. + +First, this scheme detects their error, who in the calculation they +frame contemplate nothing but the wealth and plenty they see in rich +cities and great towns, and from thence make a judgment of the +kingdom's remaining part, and from this view conclude that taxes and +payments to the public do mostly arise from the gentry and better +sort, by which measures they neither contrive their imposition +aright, nor are they able to give a true estimate what it shall +produce; but when we have divided the inhabitants of England into +their proper classes, it will appear that the nobility and gentry +are but a small part of the whole body of the people. + +Believing that taxes fell chiefly upon the better sort, they care +not what they lay, as thinking they will not be felt; but when they +come to be levied, they either fall short, and so run the public +into an immense debt, or they light so heavily upon the poorer sort, +as to occasion insufferable clamours; and they, whose proper +business it was to contrive these matters better have been so +unskilful, that the legislative power has been more than once +compelled for the peoples' ease to give new funds, instead of others +that had been ill projected. + +This may be generally said, that all duties whatsoever upon the +consumption of a large produce, fall with the greatest weight upon +the common sort, so that such as think in new duties that they +chiefly tax the rich will find themselves quite mistaken; for either +their fund must yield little, or it must arise from the whole body +of the people, of which the richer sort are but a small proportion. + +And though war, and national debts and engagements, might heretofore +very rationally plead for excises upon our home consumption, yet now +there is a peace, it is the concern of every man that loves his +country to proceed warily in laying new ones, and to get off those +which are already laid as fast as ever he can. High customs and +high excises both together are incompatible, either of them alone +are to be endured, but to have them co-exist is suffered in no well- +governed nation. If materials of foreign growth were at an easy +rate, a high price might be the better borne in things of our own +product, but to have both dear at once (and by reason of the duties +laid upon them) is ruinous to the inferior rank of men, and this +ought to weigh more with us, when we consider that even of the +common people a subdivision is to be made, of which one part subsist +from their own havings, arts, labour, and industry; and the other +part subsist a little from their own labour, but chiefly from the +help and charity of the rank that is above them. For according to +Mr. King's scheme - + +The nobility and gentry, with their families and retainers, the +persons in offices, merchants, persons in the law, the clergy, +freeholders, farmers, persons in sciences and liberal arts, +shopkeepers, and tradesmen, handicrafts, men, naval officers, with +the families and dependants upon all these altogether, make up the +number of 2,675,520 heads. + +The common seamen, common soldiers, labouring people, and out- +servants, cottagers, paupers, and their families, with the vagrants, +make up the number of 2,825,000 heads. + +In all 5,500,520 heads. + +So that here seems a majority of the people, whose chief dependence +and subsistence is from the other part, which majority is much +greater, in respect of the number of families, because 500,000 +families contribute to the support of 850,000 families. In +contemplation of which, great care should be taken not to lay new +duties upon the home consumption, unless upon the extremest +necessities of the State; for though such impositions cannot be said +to fall directly upon the lower rank, whose poverty hinders them +from consuming such materials (though there are few excises to which +the meanest person does not pay something), yet indirectly, and by +unavoidable consequences, they are rather more affected by high +duties upon our home-consumption than the wealthier degree of +people, and so we shall find the case to be, if we look carefully +into all the distinct ranks of men there enumerated. + +First, as to the nobility and gentry, they must of necessity +retrench their families and expenses, if excessive impositions are +laid upon all sorts of materials for consumption, from whence +follows, that the degree below them of merchants, shopkeepers, +tradesmen, and artisans, must want employment. + +Secondly, as to the manufactures, high excises in time of peace are +utterly destructive to that principal part of England's wealth; for +if malt, coals, salt, leather, and other things, bear a great price, +the wages of servants, workmen, and artificers, will consequently +rise, for the income must bear some proportion with the expense; and +if such as set the poor to work find wages for labour or manufacture +advance upon them, they must rise in the price of their commodity, +or they cannot live, all which would signify little, if nothing but +our own dealings among one another were thereby affected; but it has +a consequence far more pernicious in relation to our foreign trade, +for it is the exportation of our own product that must make England +rich; to be gainers in the balance of trade, we must carry out of +our own product what will purchase the things of foreign growth that +are needful for our own consumption, with some overplus either in +bullion or goods to be sold in other countries, which overplus is +the profit a nation makes by trade, and it is more or less according +to the natural frugality of the people that export, or as from the +low price of labour and manufacture they can afford the commodity +cheap, and at a rate not to be undersold in foreign markets. The +Dutch, whose labour and manufactures are dear by reason of home +excises, can notwithstanding sell cheap abroad, because this +disadvantage they labour under is balanced by the parsimonious +temper of their people; but in England, where this frugality is +hardly to be introduced, if the duties upon our home consumption are +so large as to raise considerably the price of labour and +manufacture, all our commodities for exportation must by degrees so +advance in the prime value, that they cannot be sold at a rate which +will give them vent in foreign markets, and we must be everywhere +undersold by our wiser neighbours. But the consequence of such +duties in times of peace will fall most heavily upon our woollen +manufactures, of which most have more value from the workmanship +than the material; and if the price of this workmanship be enhanced, +it will in a short course of time put a necessity upon those we deal +with of setting up manufactures of their own, such as they can, or +of buying goods of the like kind and use from nations that can +afford them cheaper. And in this point we are to consider, that the +bulk of our woollen exports does not consist in draperies made of +the fine wool, peculiar to our soil, but is composed of coarse broad +cloths, such as Yorkshire cloths, kerseys, which make a great part +of our exports, and may be, and are made of a coarser wool, which is +to be had in other countries. So that we are not singly to value +ourselves upon the material, but also upon the manufacture, which we +should make as easy as we can, by not laying over-heavy burdens upon +the manufacturer. And our woollen goods being two-thirds of our +foreign exports, it ought to be the chief object of the public care, +if we expect to be gainers in the balance of trade, which is what we +hunt after in these inquiries. + +Thirdly, as to the lower rank of all, which we compute at 2,825,000 +heads, a majority of the whole people, their principal subsistence +is upon the degrees above them, and if those are rendered uneasy +these must share in the calamity, but even of this inferior sort no +small proportion contribute largely to excises, as labourers and +out-servants, which likewise affect the common seamen, who must +thereupon raise their wages or they will not have wherewithal to +keep their families left at home, and the high wages of seamen is +another burden upon our foreign traffic. As to the cottagers, who +are about a fifth part of the whole people, some duties reach even +them, as those upon malt, leather, and salt, but not much because of +their slender consumption, but if the gentry, upon whose woods and +gleanings they live, and who employ them in day labour, and if the +manufacturers, for whom they card and spin, are overburdened with +duties, they cannot afford to give them so much for their labour and +handiwork, nor to yield them those other reliefs which are their +principal subsistence, for want of which these miserable wretches +must perish with cold and hunger. + +Thus we see excises either directly or indirectly fall upon the +whole body of the people, but we do not take notice of these matters +as receding from our former opinion. On the contrary, we still +think them the most easy and equal way of taxing a nation, and +perhaps it is demonstrable that if we had fallen into this method at +the beginning of the war of raising the year's expense within the +year by excises, England had not been now indebted so many millions, +but what was advisable under such a necessity and danger is not to +be pursued in times of peace, especially in a country depending so +much upon trade and manufactures. + +Our study now ought to be how those debts may be speedily cleared +off, for which these new revenues are the funds, that trade may +again move freely as it did heretofore, without such a heavy clog; +but this point we shall more amply handle when we come to speak of +our payments to the public. + +Mr. King divides the whole body of the people into two principal +classes, viz.:- + +Increasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,675,520 heads. +Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,825,000 heads. + +By which he means that the first class of the people from land, +arts, and industry maintain themselves, and add every year something +to the nation's general stock, and besides this, out of their +superfluity, contribute every year so much to the maintenance of +others. + +That of the second class some partly maintain themselves by labour +(as the heads of the cottage families), but that the rest, as most +of the wives and children of these, sick and impotent people, idle +beggars and vagrants, are nourished at the cost of others, and are a +yearly burden to the public, consuming annually so much as would be +otherwise added to the nation's general stock. + +The bodies of men are, without doubt, the most valuable treasure of +a country, and in their sphere the ordinary people are as +serviceable to the commonwealth as the rich if they are employed in +honest labour and useful arts, and such being more in number do more +contribute to increase the nation's wealth than the higher rank. + +But a country may be populous and yet poor (as were the ancient +Gauls and Scythians), so that numbers, unless they are well +employed, make the body politic big but unwieldy, strong but +unactive, as to any uses of good government. + +Theirs is a wrong opinion who think all mouths profit a country that +consume its produce, and it may be more truly affirmed, that he who +does not some way serve the commonwealth, either by being employed +or by employing others, is not only a useless, but a hurtful member +to it. + +As it is charity, and what we indeed owe to human kind, to make +provision for the aged, the lame, the sick, blind, and impotent, so +it is a justice we owe to the commonwealth not to suffer such as +have health, and who might maintain themselves, to be drones and +live upon the labour of others. + +The bulk of such as are a burden to the public consists in the +cottagers and paupers, beggars in great cities and towns, and +vagrants. + +Upon a survey of the hearth books, made in Michaelmas, 1685, it was +found that of the 1,300,000 houses in the whole kingdom, those of +one chimney amounted to 554,631, but some of these having land about +them, in all our calculations, we have computed the cottagers but at +500,000 families; but of these, a large number may get their own +livelihood, and are no charge to the parish, for which reason Mr. +King very judiciously computes his cottagers and paupers, decreasing +the wealth of the nation but at 400,000 families, in which account +he includes the poor-houses in cities, towns, and villages, besides +which he reckons 30,000 vagrants, and all these together to make up +1,330,000 heads. + +This is a very great proportion of the people to be a burden upon +the other part, and is a weight upon the land interest, of which the +landed gentlemen must certainly be very sensible. + +If this vast body of men, instead of being expensive, could be +rendered beneficial to the commonwealth, it were a work, no doubt, +highly to be promoted by all who love their country. + +It seems evident, to such as have considered these matters, and who +have observed how they are ordered in nations under a good polity, +that the number of such who through age or impotence stand in real +need of relief, is but small and might be maintained for very +little, and that the poor rates are swelled to the extravagant +degree we now see them at by two sorts of people, one of which, by +reason of our slack administration, is suffered to remain in sloth, +and the other, through a defect in our constitution, continue in +wretched poverty for want of employment, though willing enough to +undertake it. + +All this seems capable of a remedy, the laws may be armed against +voluntary idleness, so as to prevent it, and a way may probably be +found out to set those to work who are desirous to support +themselves by their own labour; and if this could be brought about, +it would not only put a stop to the course of that vice which is the +consequence of an idle life, but it would greatly tend to enrich the +commonwealth, for if the industry of not half the people maintain in +some degree the other part, and, besides, in times of peace did add +every year near two million and a half to the general stock of +England, to what pitch of wealth and greatness might we not be +brought, if one limb were not suffered to draw away the nourishment +of the other, and if all the members of the body politic were +rendered useful to it? + +Nature, in her contrivances, has made every part of a living +creature either for ornament or use; the same should be in a politic +institution rightly governed. + +It may be laid down for an undeniable truth, that where all work +nobody will want, and to promote this would be a greater charity and +more meritorious than to build hospitals, which very often are but +so many monuments of ill-gotten riches attended with late +repentance. + +To make as many as possible of these 1,330,000 persons (whereof not +above 330,000 are children too young to work) who now live chiefly +upon others get themselves a large share of their maintenance would +be the opening a new vein of treasure of some millions sterling per +annum; it would be a present ease to every particular man of +substance, and a lasting benefit to the whole body of the kingdom, +for it would not only nourish but increase the numbers of the +people, of which many thousands perish every year by those diseases +contracted under a slothful poverty. + +Our laws relating to the poor are very numerous, and this matter has +employed the care of every age for a long time, though but with +little success, partly through the ill execution, and partly through +some defect in the very laws. + +The corruptions of mankind are grown so great that, now-a-days, laws +are not much observed which do not in a manner execute themselves; +of this nature are those laws which relate to bringing in the +Prince's revenue, which never fail to be put in execution, because +the people must pay, and the Prince will be paid; but where only one +part of the constitution, the people, are immediately concerned, as +in laws relating to the poor, the highways, assizes, and other civil +economy, and good order in the state, those are but slenderly +regarded. + +The public good being therefore, very often, not a motive strong +enough to engage the magistrate to perform his duty, lawgivers have +many times fortified their laws with penalties, wherein private +persons may have a profit, thereby to stir up the people to put the +laws in execution. + +In countries depraved nothing proceeds well wherein particular men +do not one way or other find their account; and rather than a public +good should not go on at all, without doubt, it is better to give +private men some interest to set it forward. + +For which reason it may be worth the consideration of such as study +the prosperity and welfare of England, whether this great engine of +maintaining the poor, and finding them work and employment, may not +be put in motion by giving some body of undertakers a reasonable +gain to put the machine upon its wheels. + +In order to which, we shall here insert a proposal delivered to the +House of Commons last session of Parliament, for the better +maintaining the impotent, and employing and setting to work the +other poor of this kingdom. + +In matters of this nature, it is always good to have some model or +plan laid down, which thinking men may contemplate, alter, and +correct, as they see occasion; and the writer of these papers does +rather choose to offer this scheme, because he is satisfied it was +composed by a gentleman of great abilities, and who has made both +the poor rates, and their number, more his study than any other +person in the nation. The proposal is as follows + + +A Scheme for Setting the Poor to Work. + + +First, that such persons as shall subscribe and pay the sum of +300,000 pounds as a stock for and towards the better maintaining the +impotent poor, and for buying commodities and materials to employ +and set at work the other poor, be incorporated and made one body +politic, &c. By the name of the Governor and Company for +Maintaining and Employing the Poor of this Kingdom. + +By all former propositions, it was intended that the parishes should +advance several years' rates to raise a stock, but by this proposal +the experiment is to be made by private persons at their risk; and +300,000 pounds may be judged a very good stock, which, added to the +poor rates for a certain number of years, will be a very good fund +for buying commodities and materials for a million of money at any +time. This subscription ought to be free for everybody, and if the +sum were subscribed in the several counties of England and Wales, in +proportion to their poor rates, or the monthly assessment, it would +be most convenient; and provision may be made that no person shall +transfer his interest but to one of the same county, which will keep +the interest there during the term; and as to its being one +Corporation, it is presumed this will be most beneficial to the +public. For first, all disputes on removes, which are very +chargeable and burthensome, will be at an end--this proposal +intending, that wherever the poor are, they shall be maintained or +employed. Secondly, it will prevent one county which shall be +diligent, imposing on their neighbours who may be negligent, or +getting away their manufactures from them. Thirdly, in case of +fire, plague, or loss of manufacture, the stock of one county may +not be sufficient to support the places where such calamities may +happen; and it is necessary the whole body should support every +particular member, so that hereby there will be a general care to +administer to every place according to their necessities. + +Secondly, that the said Corporation be established for the term of +one-and-twenty years. + +The Corporation ought to be established for one-and-twenty years, or +otherwise it cannot have the benefit the law gives in case of +infants, which is their service for their education; besides, it +will be some years before a matter of this nature can be brought +into practice. + +Thirdly, that the said sum of 300,000 pounds be paid in, and laid +out for the purposes aforesaid, to remain as a stock for and during +the said term of one-and-twenty years. + +The subscription ought to be taken at the passing of the Act, but +the Corporation to be left at liberty to begin either the Michaelmas +or the Lady Day after, as they shall think fit. And XXX per cent. +to be paid at the subscribing to persons appointed for that purpose, +and the remainder before they begin to act; but so as 300,000 pounds +shall be always in stock during the term, notwithstanding any +dividends or other disposition: and an account thereof to be +exhibited twice in every year upon oath, before the Lord Chancellor +for the time being. + +Fourthly, that the said corporation do by themselves, or agents in +every parish of England, from and after the XXX day of XXX during +the said term of one-and-twenty years, provide for the real impotent +poor good and sufficient maintenance and reception, as good or +better than hath at any time within the space of XXX years before +the said XXX day of XXX been provided or allowed to such impotent +poor, and so shall continue to provide for such impotent poor, and +what other growing impotent poor shall happen in the said parish +during the said term. + +By impotent poor is to be understood all infants and old and +decrepid persons not able to work; also persons who by sickness or +any accident are for the time unable to labour for themselves or +families; and all persons (not being fit for labour) who were +usually relieved by the money raised for the use of the poor; they +shall have maintenance, as good or better, as within XXX years they +used to have. + +This does not directly determine what that shall be, nor is it +possible, by reason a shilling in one county is as much as two in +another; but it will be the interest of the Corporation that such +poor be well provided for, by reason the contrary will occasion all +the complaints or clamour that probably can be made against the +Corporation. + +Fifthly, that the Corporation do provide (as well for all such poor +which on the said XXX day of XXX shall be on the poor books, as for +what other growing poor shall happen in the said term who are or +shall be able to labour or do any work) sufficient labour and work +proper for such persons to be employed in. And that provision shall +be made for such labouring persons according to their labour, so as +such provision doth not exceed three-fourth parts as much as any +other person would have paid for such labour. And in case they are +not employed and set to work, then such persons shall, until +materials or labour be provided for them, be maintained as impotent +poor; but so as such persons who shall hereafter enter themselves on +the poor's book, being able to labour, shall not quit the service of +the corporation, without leave, for the space of six months. + +The Corporation are to provide materials and labour for all that can +work, and to make provision for them not exceeding three-fourth +parts as much as any other person would give for such labour. For +example, if another person would give one of these a shilling, the +Corporation ought to give but ninepence. And the reason is plain, +first, because the Corporation will be obliged to maintain them and +their families in all exigences, which others are not obliged to do, +and consequently they ought not to allow so much as others. +Secondly, in case any persons able to labour, shall come to the +Corporation, when their agents are not prepared with materials to +employ them, by this proposal they are to allow them full provision +as impotent poor, until they find them work, which is entirely in +favour of the poor. Thirdly, it is neither reasonable nor possible +for the Corporation to provide materials upon every occasion, for +such persons as shall be entered with them, unless they can be +secure of such persons to work up those materials; besides, without +this provision, all the labouring people of England will play fast +and loose between their employers and the Corporation, for as they +are disobliged by one, they will run to the other, and so neither +shall be sure of them. + +Sixthly, that no impotent poor shall be removed out of the parish +where they dwell, but upon notice in writing given to the +churchwardens or overseers of the said parish, to what place of +provision he or she is removed. + +It is judged the best method to provide for the impotent poor in +houses prepared for that purpose, where proper provision may be made +for several, with all necessaries of care and maintenance. So that +in some places one house will serve the impotent poor of several +parishes, in which case the parish ought to know where to resort, to +see if good provision be made for them. + +Seventhly, that in case provision be not made for the poor of each +parish, in manner as aforesaid (upon due notice given to the agents +of the Corporation) the said parish may order their poor to be +maintained, and deduct the sum by them expended out of the next +payments to be made to the said corporation by the said parish. + +In case any accident happens in a parish, either by sickness, fall, +casualty of fire, or other ways; and that the agent of the +Corporation is not present to provide for them, or having notice +doth not immediately do it, the parish may do it, and deduct so much +out of the next payment; but there must be provision made for the +notice, and in what time the Corporation shall provide for them. + +Eighthly, that the said Corporation shall have and receive for the +said one-and-twenty years, that is to say, from every parish yearly, +so much as such parish paid in any one year, to be computed by a +medium of seven years; namely, from the 25th of March, 1690, to the +25th of March 1697, and to be paid half-yearly; and besides, shall +receive the benefit of the revenues of all donations given to any +parish, or which shall be given during the said term, and all +forfeitures which the law gives to the use of the poor; and to all +other sums which were usually collected by the parish, for the +maintenance of the poor. + +Whatever was raised for or applied to the use of the poor, ought to +be paid over to the Corporation; and where there are any donations +for maintaining the poor, it will answer the design of the donor, by +reason there will be better provision for the maintenance of the +poor than ever; and if that maintenance be so good, as to induce +further charities, no doubt the Corporation ought to be entitled to +them. But there are two objections to this article; first that to +make a medium by a time of war is unreasonable. Secondly, to +continue the whole tax for one-and-twenty years, does not seem to +give any benefit to the kingdom in that time. To the first, it is +true, we have a peace, but trade is lower now than at any time +during the war, and the charge of the poor greater; and when trade +will mend is very uncertain. To the second, it is very plain, that +although the charge may be the same to a parish in the total, yet it +will be less to particular persons, because those who before +received alms, will now be enabled to be contributors; but besides, +the turning so many hundred thousand pounds a year (which in a +manner have hitherto been applied only to support idleness) into +industry; and the employing so many other idle vagrants and sturdy +beggars, with the product of their labour, will altogether be a +present benefit to the lands of England, as well in the rents as in +the value; and further the accidental charities in the streets and +at doors, is, by a very modest computation, over and above the poor +rates, at least 300,000 pounds per annum, which will be entirely +saved by this proposal, and the persons set at work; which is a +further consideration for its being well received, since the +Corporation are not allowed anything for this service. + +The greater the encouragement is, the better the work will be +performed; and it will become the wisdom of the parliament in what +they do, to make it effectual; for should such an undertaking as +this prove ineffectual, instead of remedying, it will increase the +mischief. + +Ninthly, that all the laws made for the provision of the poor, and +for punishing idle vagrant persons, be repealed, and one law made to +continue such parts as are found useful, and to add such other +restrictions, penalties, and provisions, as may effectually attain +the end of this great work. + +The laws hereunto relating are numerous, but the judgment and +opinions given upon them are so various and contradictory, and +differ so in sundry places, as to be inconsistent with any one +general scheme of management. + +Tenthly, that proper persons be appointed in every county to +determine all matters and differences which may arise between the +corporation and the respective parishes. + +To prevent any ill usage, neglect or cruelty, it will be necessary +to make provision that the poor may tender their complaints to +officers of the parish; and that those officers having examined the +same, and not finding redress, may apply to persons to be appointed +in each county and each city for that purpose, who may be called +supervisors of the poor, and may have allowance made them for their +trouble; and their business may be to examine the truth of such +complaints; and in case either the parish or corporation judge +themselves aggrieved by the determination of the said supervisors, +provision may be made that an appeal lie to the quarter sessions. + +Eleventhly, that the corporation be obliged to provide for all +public beggars, and to put the laws into execution against public +beggars and idle vagrant persons. + +Such of the public beggars as can work must be employed, the rest to +be maintained as impotent poor, but the laws to be severely put in +execution against those who shall ask any public alms. + +This proposal, which in most parts of it seems to be very maturely +weighed, may be a foundation for those to build upon who have a +public spirit large enough to embrace such a noble undertaking. + +But the common obstruction to anything of this nature is a malignant +temper in some who will not let a public work go on if private +persons are to be gainers by it. When they are to get themselves, +they abandon all sense of virtue; but are clothed in her whitest +robe when they smell profit coming to another, masking themselves +with a false zeal to the commonwealth, where their own turn is not +to be served. It were better, indeed, that men would serve their +country for the praise and honour that follow good actions, but this +is not to be expected in a nation at least leaning towards +corruption, and in such an age it is as much as we can hope for if +the prospect of some honest gain invites people to do the public +faithful service. For which reason, in any undertaking where it can +be made apparent that a great benefit will accrue to the +commonwealth in general, we ought not to have an evil eye upon what +fair advantages particular men may thereby expect to reap, still +taking care to keep their appetite of getting within moderate +bounds, laying all just and reasonable restraints upon it, and +making due provision that they may not wrong or oppress their fellow +subjects. + +It is not to be denied, but that if fewer hands were suffered to +remain idle, and if the poor had full employment, it would greatly +tend to the common welfare, and contribute much towards adding every +year to the general stock of England. + +Among the methods that we have here proposed of employing the poor, +and making the whole body of the people useful to the public, we +think it our duty to mind those who consider the common welfare of +looking with a compassionate eye into the prisons of this kingdom, +where many thousands consume their time in vice and idleness, +wasting the remainder of their fortunes, or lavishing the substance +of their creditors, eating bread and doing no work, which is +contrary to good order, and pernicious to the commonwealth. + +We cannot therefore but recommend the thoughts of some good bill +that may effectually put an end to this mischief so scandalous in a +trading country, which should let no hands remain useless. + +It is not at all difficult to contrive such a bill as may relieve +and release the debtor, and yet preserve to his creditors all their +fair, just, and honest rights and interest. + +And so we have in this matter endeavoured to show that to preserve +and increase the people, and to make their numbers useful, are +methods conducing to make us gainers in the balance of trade. + + + + +*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK, MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETIC *** + +This file should be named mkpa10.txt or mkpa10.zip +Corrected EDITIONS of our eBooks get a new NUMBER, mkpa11.txt +VERSIONS based on separate sources get new LETTER, mkpa10a.txt + +Project Gutenberg eBooks are often created from several printed +editions, all of which are confirmed as Public Domain in the US +unless a copyright notice is included. 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