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diff --git a/.gitattributes b/.gitattributes new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6833f05 --- /dev/null +++ b/.gitattributes @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +* text=auto +*.txt text +*.md text diff --git a/5619-0.txt b/5619-0.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b3f4709 --- /dev/null +++ b/5619-0.txt @@ -0,0 +1,4090 @@ +The Project Gutenberg eBook, Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic, +by William Petty, Edited by Henry Morley + + +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + + + + + +Title: Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic + + +Author: William Petty + +Editor: Henry Morley + +Release Date: August 3, 2014 [eBook #5619] +[This file was first posted on July 23, 2002] + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: UTF-8 + + +***START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK ESSAYS ON MANKIND AND POLITICAL +ARITHMETIC*** + + +Transcribed from the Cassell & Co. edition by David Price, email +ccx074@pglaf.org + + [Picture: Book cover] + + + + + + ESSAYS ON MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETIC + + +INTRODUCTION. + + +WILLIAM PETTY, born on the 26th of May, 1623, was the son of a clothier +at Romsey in Hampshire. After education at the Romsey Grammar School, he +continued his studies at Caen in Normandy. There he supported himself by +a little trade while learning French, and advancing his knowledge of +Greek, Latin, Mathematics, and much else that belonged to his idea of a +liberal education. His idea was large. He came back to England, and had +for a short time a place in the Navy; but at the age of twenty he went +abroad again, and was away three years, studying actively at Utrecht, +Leyden, and Amsterdam, and also in Paris. In Paris he assisted Thomas +Hobbes in drawing diagrams for his treatise on optics. At the age of +twenty-four Petty took out a patent for the invention of a copying +machine. It was described in a folio pamphlet “On Double Writing.” That +was in 1647, in Civil War time, and although Petty followed Hobbes in his +studies, he did not share the philosopher’s political opinions, but held +with the Parliament. In 1648 he added to his former pamphlet a +“Declaration concerning the newly invented Art of Double Writing.” + +Samuel Hartlib, the large-hearted Pole, who in those days spent his +worldly means in England for the advancement of agriculture and of +education, and other aids to the well-being of a nation, had caused +Milton to write his letter on education, as has been shown in the +Introduction to the hundred and twenty-first volume of this Library, +which contains that Letter together with Milton’s Areopagitica. Young +Petty’s first published writing was a Letter to Hartlib on Education, +entitled “The Advice of W. P. to Mr. Samuel Hartlib for the Advancement +of some Particular Parts of Learning.” This appeared in 1648, when +Petty’s age was twenty-five, and its aim was to suggest a wider view of +the whole field of education than had been possible in the Middle Ages, +of which schools and colleges were then preserving the traditions, as +they do still here and there to some extent. This pamphlet has been +reprinted in the sixth volume of the “Harleian Miscellany.” William +Petty wished the training of the young to be in several respects more +practical. + +His own activity of mind caused him to settle at Oxford, where he taught +anatomy and chemistry, which he had been studying abroad. He had read +with Hobbes the writings of Vesalius, the great founder of modern +practical anatomy. In 1649 William Petty graduated at Oxford as Doctor +of Medicine, obtained a fellowship at Brasenose, and practised. In 1650 +he surprised the public by restoring the action of the lungs in a woman +who had been hanged for infanticide, and so restoring her to life. + +Dr. Petty now took his place at Oxford among the energetic men of science +who had been inspired by the teaching of Francis Bacon to seek knowledge +by direct experiment, and to value knowledge above all things for its +power of advancing the welfare of man. The headquarters of these workers +were at Oxford, and in London at Gresham College. + +In 1650 Petty was made Professor of Anatomy at Oxford, and it is a +characteristic illustration of his great activity of mind that he was at +the same time Professor of Music at Gresham College. Music had then a +high place in the Seven Sciences, as that use of regulated numbers which +expressed the harmonies of the created world. The Seven Sciences were +divided into three of the Trivium, and four of the Quadrivium. The three +of the Trivium concerned the use of speech; they were Grammar, Rhetoric, +and Logic. The four of the Quadrivium concerned number and measure; they +were Arithmetic, Geometry, Music; and Astronomy, which led up straight to +God. Advance to Music might be represented in the student’s mind by his +reaching to a sense of the harmonious relation of all his studies, which, +so to speak, lived in his mind as a single well-proportioned thought. + +In 1652 Dr. Petty was sent to Ireland as physician to the army of the +Commonwealth. While there his active mind observed that the Survey on +which the Government had based its distribution of fortified lands to the +soldiers had been “most inefficiently and absurdly managed.” He obtained +the commission to make a fresh Survey, which he completed accurately in +thirteen months, and by which he obtained in payments from the Government +and from other persons interested ten thousand pounds. By investing this +in the purchase of soldiers’ claims, he secured for himself an Irish +estate of fifty thousand acres in the county of Kerry, opened upon it +mines and quarries, developed trade in timber, and set up a fishery. +John Evelyn said of him “that he had never known such another genius, and +that if Evelyn were a prince he would make Petty his second councillor at +least.” Henry Cromwell as Lord Deputy in Ireland made Petty his +secretary. + +Petty’s Maps were printed in 1685, two years before his death, as +“Hiberniæ Delineatio quoad hactenus licuit perfectissima;” a collection +of thirty-six maps, with a portrait of Sir William Petty, a work +answering to its description as the most perfect delineation of Ireland +that had up to that time been obtained. There is a coloured copy of +Petty’s maps in the British Museum, and also an uncoloured copy, with the +first five maps varying from those in the coloured copy, and giving a +General Map of Ireland, followed by Maps of Leinster, Munster, Ulster, +and Connaught. There was afterwards published in duodecimo, without +date, “A Geographical Description of ye Kingdom of Ireland, collected +from ye actual Survey made by Sir William Petty, corrected and amended, +engraven and published by Fra. Lamb.” This volume gives as its contents, +“one general mapp, four provincial mapps, and thirty-two county mapps; to +which is added a mapp of Great Brittaine and Ireland, together with an +Index of the whole.” + +At the Restoration William Petty accepted the inevitable change, and +continued his service to the country. He was knighted by Charles the +Second, and appointed in 1661 Inspector-General of Ireland. He entered +Parliament. He was one of the first founders of the Royal Society, +established at the beginning of the reign of Charles the Second; and the +outcome of these scientific studies along the line marked out by Francis +Bacon, which had been actively pursued in Oxford and at Gresham College. +In 1663 he applied his ingenuity to the invention of a swift +double-bottomed ship, that made one or two passages between England and +Ireland, but was then lost in a storm. + +In 1670 Sir William Petty established on his lands at Kerry the English +settlement at the head of the bay of Kenmare. The building of forty-two +houses for the English settlers first laid the foundations of the present +town of Kenmare. “The population,” writes Lord Macaulay, “amounted to a +hundred and eighty. The land round the town was well cultivated. The +cattle were numerous. Two small barks were employed in fishing and +trading along the coast. The supply of herrings, pilchards, mackerel, +and salmon, was plentiful, and would have been still more plentiful had +not the beach been, in the finest part of the year, covered by multitudes +of seals, which preyed on the fish of the bay. Yet the seal was not an +unwelcome visitor: his fur was valuable; and his oil supplied light +through the long nights of winter. An attempt was made with great +success to set up ironworks. It was not yet the practice to employ coal +for the purpose of smelting; and the manufacturers of Kent and Sussex had +much difficulty in procuring timber at a reasonable price. The +neighbourhood of Kenmare was then richly wooded; and Petty found it a +gainful speculation to send ore thither.” He looked also for profit from +the variegated marbles of adjacent islands. Distant two days’ journey +over the mountains from the nearest English, Petty’s English settlement +of Kenmare withstood all surrounding dangers, and in 1688, a year after +its founder’s death, defended itself successfully against a fierce and +general attack. + +Sir William Petty died at London, on the 16th of December, 1687, and was +buried in his native town of Romsey. He had added to his great wealth by +marriage, and was the founder of the family in which another Sir William +Petty became Earl of Shelburne and first Marquis of Lansdowne. The son +of that first Marquis was Henry third Marquis of Lansdowne, who took a +conspicuous part in our political history during the present century. + +Sir William Petty’s survey of the land in Ireland, called the Down +Survey, because its details were set down in maps, remains the legal +record of the title on which half the land in Ireland is held. The +original maps are preserved in the Public Record Office at Dublin, and +many of Petty’s MSS. are in the Bodleian Library at Oxford. + +He published in 1662 and 1685 a “Treatise of Taxes and Contributions, the +same being frequently to the present state and affairs of Ireland,” of +which his view started from the general opinion that men should +contribute to the public charge according to their interest in the public +peace—that is, according to their riches. “Now,” he said, “there are two +sorts of riches—one actual, and the other potential. A man is actually +and truly rich according to what he eateth, drinketh, weareth, or in any +other way really and actually enjoyeth. Others are but potentially and +imaginatively rich, who though they have power over much, make little use +of it, these being rather stewards and exchangers for the other sort than +owners for themselves.” He then showed how he considered that “every man +ought to contribute according to what he taketh to himself, and actually +enjoyeth.” + +In 1674 Sir William Petty published a paper on “Duplicate Proportion,” +and in 1679 he published in Latin a “Colloquy of David with his Own +Soul.” In 1682 he published a tract called “Quantulumcunque, concerning +Money;” and “England’s Guide to Industry,” in 1686. From 1682 to 1687, +the year of his death, Sir William Petty was drawing great attention to +the “Essays on Political Arithmetic,” which are here reprinted. There +was the little “Essay in Political Arithmetic, concerning the People, +Housings, Hospitals of London and Paris;” published in 1682, again in +French in 1686, and again in English in 1687. There was the little +“Essay concerning the Multiplication of Mankind, together with an Essay +on the Growth of London,” published in 1682, and again in 1683 and 1686. +There was in 1683, “Another Essay in Political Arithmetic concerning the +growth of the City of London.” There were “Farther Considerations on the +Dublin Bills of Mortality,” in 1686; and “Five Essays on Political +Arithmetic” (in French and English), “Observations upon the Cities of +London and Rome,” in 1687, the last year of Sir William Petty’s life. +Other writings of his were published in his lifetime, or have been +published since his death. He was in the study of political economy one +of the most ingenious and practical thinkers before the days of Adam +Smith. + +But the interest of those “Essays in Political Arithmetic” lies chiefly +in the facts presented by so trustworthy an authority. London had become +in the time of the Stuarts the most populous city in Europe, if not in +the world. This Sir William Petty sought to prove against the doubts of +foreign and other critics, and his “Political Arithmetic” was an +endeavour to determine the relative strength in population of the chief +cities of England, France, and Holland. His application of arithmetic in +the first of these essays to a census of the population at the Day of +Judgment he himself spoke of slightingly. It is a curious example of a +bygone form of theological discussion. But his tables and his reasonings +upon them grow in interest as he attempts his numbering of the people in +the reign of James II. by collecting facts upon which his deductions +might be founded. The references to the deaths by Plague in London +before the cleansing of the town by the great fire of 1666 are very +suggestive; and in one passage there is incidental note of delay in the +coming of the Plague then due, without reckoning the change made in +conditions of health by the rebuilding. Nobody knew, and no one even now +can calculate, how many lives the Fire of London saved. + +There was in Petty’s time no direct numbering of the people. The first +census in this country was not until more than a hundred years after Sir +William Petty’s death, although he points out in these essays how easily +it could be established, and what useful information it would give. +There was a census taken at Rome 566 years before Christ. But the first +census in Great Britain was taken in 1801, under provision of an Act +passed on the last day of the year 1800, to secure a numbering of the +population every ten years. Ireland was not included in the return; the +first census in Ireland was not until the year 1813. + +Sir William Petty had to base his calculations partly upon the Bills of +Mortality, which had been imperfectly begun under Elizabeth, but fell +into disuse, and were revived, as a weekly record of the number of +deaths, beginning on the 29th of October, 1603; notices of diseases first +appeared in them in 1629. The weekly bills were published every +Thursday, and any householder could have them supplied to him for four +shillings a year. These essays will show how inferences as to the number +of the living were drawn from the number of the dead. And even now our +Political Arithmetic depends too much upon rough calculations made from +the death register. It is seven years since the last census; we have +lost count of the changes in our population to a very great extent, and +have to wait three years before our reckoning can be made sure. The +interval should be reduced to five years. + +Another of Sir William Petty’s helps in the arithmetic of population was +the Chimney Tax, a revival of the old fumage or hearth-money—smoke +farthings, as the people called them—once paid, according to Domesday +Book, for every chimney in a house. Charles the Second had set up a +chimney tax in the year 1662; the statistics of the collection were at +the service of Sir William Petty. The tax outlived him but two years. +It was promptly abolished in the first year of William and Mary. + +The interest taken at home and abroad in these calculations of Political +Arithmetic set other men calculating, and reasoning upon their +calculations. The next worker in that direction was Gregory King, +Lancaster Herald, whose calculations immediately followed those of Sir +William Petty. Sir William Petty’s essays extended from 1682 until his +death in 1687. Gregory King’s estimates were made in 1689. They were a +study of the number population and distribution of wealth among us at the +time of the English Revolution, and the unpublished results were first +printed in a chapter on “The People of England,” which formed part a +volume published in 1699 as “An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making +a People Gainers in the Balance of Trade, by the Author of the Essay on +Ways and Means.” The volume was written by a member of Parliament in the +days of William and Mary, who desired to apply principles of political +economy to the maintenance of English wealth and liberty. It has been +wrongly scribed to Defoe; and its suggestion of the plan a trading +Corporation for solution of the whole problem of relief to the poor who +cannot work, and relief from the poor who can, might indeed make another +chapter in Defoe’s “Essay on Projects.” The chapter, which gives the +Political Arithmetic of Gregory King, with such comment and suggestions +as might be expected from a liberal supporter of the Revolution, and with +this suggestion of a Corporation, is in itself a complete essay. It +follows naturally upon the Political Arithmetic of Sir William Petty in +close sequence of time, and in carrying a like method of inquiry forward +until it reaches a few more conclusions. I have, therefore, added it to +this volume. It seems, at any rate, to show how Sir William Petty’s +books, of which the very small size grieved the stationer, had a large +influence on other minds; his figures bearing fruit in a new search for +facts and careful reasoning on the condition of the country at one of the +most critical times in English history. + + H. M. + + + + +THE STATIONER TO THE READER. + + +THE ensuing essay concerning the growth of the city of London was +entitled “Another Essay,” intimating that some other essay had preceded +it, which was not to be found. I having been much importuned for that +precedent essay, have found that the same was about the growth, increase, +and multiplication of mankind, which subject should in order of nature +precede that of the growth of the city of London, but am not able to +procure the essay itself, only I have obtained from a gentleman, who +sometimes corresponded with Sir W. Petty, an extract of a letter from Sir +William to him, which I verily believe containeth the scope thereof; +wherefore, I must desire the reader to be content therewith, till more +can be had. + + * * * * * + +_The extract of a letter concerning the scope of an essay intended to +precede another essay concerning the growth of the City of London_, _&c._ +_An Essay in Political Arithmetic_, _concerning the value and increase of +People and Colonies_. + +THE scope of this essay is concerning people and colonies, and to make +way for “Another Essay” concerning the growth of the city of London. I +desire in this first essay to give the world some light concerning the +numbers of people in England, with Wales, and in Ireland; as also of the +number of houses and families wherein they live, and of acres they +occupy. + +2. How many live upon their lands, how many upon their personal estates +and commerce, and how many upon art, and labour; how many upon alms, how +many upon offices and public employments, and how many as cheats and +thieves; how many are impotents, children, and decrepit old men. + +3. How many upon the poll-taxes in England, do pay extraordinary rates, +and how many at the level. + +4. How many men and women are prolific, and how many of each are married +or unmarried. + +5. What the value of people are in England, and what in Ireland at a +medium, both as members of the Church or Commonwealth, or as slaves and +servants to one another; with a method how to estimate the same, in any +other country or colony. + +6. How to compute the value of land in colonies, in comparison to +England and Ireland. + +7. How 10,000 people in a colony may be planted to the best advantage. + +8. A conjecture in what number of years England and Ireland may be fully +peopled, as also all America, and lastly the whole habitable earth. + +9. What spot of the earth’s globe were fittest for a general and +universal emporium, whereby all the people thereof may best enjoy one +another’s labours and commodities. + +10. Whether the speedy peopling of the earth would make + + (1) For the good of mankind. + + (2) To fulfil the revealed will of God. + + (3) To what prince or State the same would be most advantageous. + +11. An exhortation to all thinking men to solve the Scriptures and other +good histories, concerning the number of people in all ages of the world, +in the great cities thereof, and elsewhere. + +12. An appendix concerning the different number of sea-fish and +wild-fowl at the end of every thousand years since Noah’s Flood. + +13. An hypothesis of the use of those spaces (of about 8,000 miles +through) within the globe of our earth, supposing a shell of 150 miles +thick. + +14. What may be the meaning of glorified bodies, in case the place of +the blessed shall be without the convex of the orb of the fixed stars, if +that the whole system of the world was made for the use of our earth’s +men. + + + + +THE PRINCIPAL POINTS OF THIS DISCOURSE. + + +1. THAT London doubles in forty years, and all England in three hundred +and sixty years. + +2. That there be, A.D. 1682, about 670,000 souls in London, and about +7,400,000 in all England and Wales, and about 28,000,000 of acres of +profitable land. + +3. That the periods of doubling the people are found to be, in all +degrees, from between ten to twelve hundred years. + +4. That the growth of London must stop of itself before the year 1800. + +5. A table helping to understand the Scriptures, concerning the number +of people mentioned in them. + +6. That the world will be fully peopled within the next two thousand +years. + +7. Twelve ways whereby to try any proposal pretended for the public +good. + +8. How the city of London may be made (morally speaking) invincible. + +9. A help to uniformity in religion. + +10. That it is possible to increase mankind by generation four times +more than at present. + +11. The plagues of London is the chief impediment and objection against +the growth of the city. + +12. That an exact account of the people is necessary in this matter. + + + + +OF THE GROWTH OF THE CITY OF LONDON: + + + _And of the Measures_, _Periods_, _Causes_, _and Consequences thereof_. + +BY the city of London we mean the housing within the walls of the old +city, with the liberties thereof, Westminster, the Borough of Southwark, +and so much of the built ground in Middlesex and Surrey, whose houses are +contiguous unto, or within call of those aforementioned. Or else we mean +the housing which stand upon the ninety-seven parishes within the walls +of London; upon the sixteen parishes next without them; the six parishes +of Westminster, and the fourteen out-parishes in Middlesex and Surrey, +contiguous to the former, all which, 133 parishes, are comprehended +within the weekly bills of mortality. + +The growth of this city is measured. (1) By the quantity of ground, or +number of acres upon which it stands. (2) By the number of houses, as +the same appears by the hearth-books and late maps. (3) By the cubical +content of the said housing. (4) By the flooring of the same. (5) By +the number of days’ work, or charge of building the said houses. (6) By +the value of the said houses, according to their yearly rent, and number +of years’ purchase. (7) By the number of inhabitants; according to which +latter sense only we make our computations in this essay. + +Till a better rule can be obtained, we conceive that the proportion of +the people may be sufficiently measured by the proportion of the burials +in such years as were neither remarkable for extraordinary healthfulness +or sickliness. + +That the city hath increased in this latter sense appears from the bills +of mortality represented in the two following tables, viz., one whereof +is a continuation for eighteen years, ending 1682, of that table which +was published in the 117th page of the book of the observations upon the +London bills of mortality, printed in the year 1676. The other showeth +what number of people died at a medium of two years, indifferently taken, +at about twenty years’ distance from each other. + +The first of the said two tables. + + A.D. 97 Parishes. 16 Parishes. Out Parishes. Buried in Besides of Christened. + all. the Plague. + 1665 5,320 12,463 10,925 28,708 68,596 9,967 + 1666 1,689 3,969 5,082 10,740 1,998 8,997 + 1667 761 6,405 8,641 15,807 35 10,938 + 1668 796 6,865 9,603 17,267 14 11,633 + 1669 1,323 7,500 10,440 19,263 3 12,335 + 1670 1,890 7,808 10,500 20,198 11,997 + 1671 1,723 5,938 8,063 15,724 5 12,510 + 1672 2,237 6,788 9,200 18,225 5 12,593 + 1673 2,307 6,302 8,890 17,499 5 11,895 + 1674 2,801 7,522 10,875 21,198 3 11,851 + 1675 2,555 5,986 8,702 17,243 1 11,775 + 1676 2,756 6,508 9,466 18,730 2 12,399 + 1677 2,817 6,632 9,616 19,065 2 12,626 + 1678 3,060 6,705 10,908 20,673 5 12,601 + 1679 3,074 7,481 11,173 21,728 2 12,288 + 1680 3,076 7,066 10,911 21,053 12,747 + 1681 3,669 8,136 12,166 23,971 13,355 + 1682 2,975 7,009 10,707 20,691 12,653 + +According to which latter table there died as follows:— + + THE LATTER OF THE SAID TWO TABLES. + + _There died in London at the medium between the years_— + +1604 and 1605 5,135. A. +1621 and 1622 8,527 B. +1641 and 1642 11,883 C. +1661 and 1662 15,148. D. +1681 and 1682 22,331. E. + +Wherein observe, that the number C is double to A and 806 over. That D +is double to B within 1,906. That C and D is double to A and B within +293. That E is double to C within 1,435. That D and E is double to B +and C within 3,341; and that C and D and E are double to A and B and C +within 1,736; and that E is above quadruple to A. All which differences +(every way considered) do allow the doubling of the people of London in +40 years to be a sufficient estimate thereof in round numbers, and +without the trouble of fractions. We also say that 669,930 is near the +number of people now in London, because the burials are 22,331, which, +multiplied by 30 (one dying yearly out of 30, as appears in the 94th page +of the aforementioned observations), maketh the said number; and because +there are 84,000 tenanted houses (as we are credibly informed), which, at +8 in each, makes 672,000 souls; the said two accounts differing +inconsiderably from each other. + +We have thus pretty well found out in what number of years (viz., in +about 40) that the city of London hath doubled, and the present number of +inhabitants to be about 670,000. We must now also endeavour the same for +the whole territory of England and Wales. In order whereunto, we first +say that the assessment of London is about an eleventh part of the whole +territory, and, therefore, that the people of the whole may well be +eleven times that of London, viz., about 7,369,000 souls; with which +account that of the poll-money, hearth-money, and the bishop’s late +numbering of the communicants, do pretty well agree; wherefore, although +the said number of 7,369,000 be not (as it cannot be) a demonstrated +truth, yet it will serve for a good supposition, which is as much as we +want at present. + +As for the time in which the people double, it is yet more hard to be +found. For we have good experience (in the said page 94 of the +aforementioned observations) that in the country but 1 of 50 die per +annum; and by other late accounts, that there have been sometimes but 24 +births for 23 burials. The which two points, if they were universally +and constantly true, there would be colour enough to say that the people +doubled but in about 1,200 years. As, for example, suppose there be 600 +people, of which let a fiftieth part die per annum, then there shall die +12 per annum; and if the births be as 24 to 23, then the increase of the +people shall be somewhat above half a man per annum, and consequently the +supposed number of 600 cannot be doubled but in 1,126 years, which, to +reckon in round numbers, and for that the aforementioned fractions were +not exact, we had rather call 1,200. + +There are also other good observations, that even in the country one in +about 30 or 32 per annum hath died, and that there have been five births +for four burials. Now, according to this doctrine, 20 will die per annum +out of the above 600, and 25 will be born, so as the increase will be +five, which is a hundred and twentieth part of the said 600. So as we +have two fair computations, differing from each other as one to ten; and +there are also several other good observations for other measures. + +I might here insert, that although the births in this last computation be +25 of 600, or a twenty-fourth part of the people, yet that in natural +possibility they may be near thrice as many, and near 75. For that by +some late observations, the teeming females between 15 and 44 are about +180 of the said 600, and the males of between 18 and 59 are about 180 +also, and that every teeming woman can bear a child once in two years; +from all which it is plain that the births may be 90 (and abating 15 for +sickness, young abortions, and natural barrenness), there may remain 75 +births, which is an eighth of the people, which by some observations we +have found to be but a two-and-thirtieth part, or but a quarter of what +is thus shown to be naturally possible. Now, according to this +reckoning, if the births may be 75 of 600, and the burials but 15, then +the annual increase of the people will be 60; and so the said 600 people +may double in ten years, which differs yet more from 1,200 +above-mentioned. Now, to get out of this difficulty, and to temper those +vast disagreements, I took the medium of 50 and 30 dying per annum, and +pitched upon 40; and I also took the medium between 24 births and 23 +burials, and 5 births for 4 burials, viz., allowing about 10 births for 9 +burials; upon which supposition there must die 15 per annum out of the +above-mentioned 600, and the births must be 16 and two-thirds, and the +increase one and two-thirds, or five-thirds of a man, which number, +compared with 1,800 thirds, or 600 men, gives 360 years for the time of +doubling (including some allowance for wars, plagues, and famines, the +effects thereof), though they be terrible at the times and places where +they happen, yet in a period of 360 years is no great matter in the whole +nation. For the plagues of England in twenty years have carried away +scarce an eightieth part of the people of the whole nation; and the late +ten years’ civil wars (the like whereof hath not been in several ages +before) did not take away above a fortieth part of the whole people. + +According to which account or measure of doubling, if there be now in +England and Wales 7,400,000 people, there were about 5,526,000 in the +beginning of Queen Elizabeth’s reign, A.D. 1560, and about 2,000,000 at +the Norman Conquest, of which consult the Doomsday Book, and my Lord +Hale’s “Origination of Mankind.” + +Memorandum.—That if the people double in 360 years, that the present +320,000,000 computed by some learned men (from the measures of all the +nations of the world, their degrees of being peopled, and good accounts +of the people in several of them) to be now upon the face of the earth, +will within the next 2,000 years so increase as to give one head for +every two acres of land in the habitable part of the earth. And then, +according to the prediction of the Scriptures, there must be wars, and +great slaughter, &c. + +Wherefore, as an expedient against the above-mentioned difference between +10 and 1,200 years, we do for the present, and in this country, admit of +360 years to be the time wherein the people of England do double, +according to the present laws and practice of marriages. + +Now, if the city double its people in 40 years, and the present number be +670,000, and if the whole territory be 7,400,000, and double in 360 +years, as aforesaid, then by the underwritten table it appears that A.D. +1840 the people of the city will be 10,718,880, and those of the whole +country but 10,917,389, which is but inconsiderably more. Wherefore it +is certain and necessary that the growth of the city must stop before the +said year 1840, and will be at its utmost height in the next preceding +period, A.D. 1800, when the number of the city will be eight times its +present number, 5,359,000. And when (besides the said number) there will +be 4,466,000 to perform the tillage, pasturage, and other rural works +necessary to be done without the said city, as by the following table, +viz.:— + + A.D. Burials. People in People in + London. England. + 1565 2,568 77,040 5,526,929 +As in the 1605 5,135 +former table. + 1642 11,883 + 1682 22,331 669,930 7,369,230 + 1722 44,662 + 1762 89,324 + 1802 178,648 5,359,440 9,825,650 + 1842 357,296 10,718,889 10,917,389 + +Now, when the people of London shall come to be so near the people of all +England, then it follows that the growth of London must stop before the +said year 1842, as aforesaid, and must be at its greatest height A.D. +1800, when it will be eight times more than now, with above 4,000,000 for +the service of the country and ports, as aforesaid. + +Of the aforementioned vast difference between 10 years and 1,200 years +for doubling the people, we make this use, viz.:—To justify the +Scriptures and all other good histories concerning the number of the +people in ancient time. For supposing the eight persons who came out of +the Ark, increased by a progressive doubling in every ten years, might +grow in the first 100 years after the Flood from 8 to 8,000, and that in +350 years after the Flood (whereabouts Noah died) to 1,000,000 and by +this time, 1682, to 320,000,000 (which by rational conjecture are thought +to be now in the world), it will not be hard to compute how, in the +intermediate years, the growths may be made, according to what is set +down in the following table, wherein making the doubling to be ten years +at first, and within 1,200 years at last, we take a discretionary +liberty, but justifiable by observations and the Scriptures for the rest, +which table we leave to be corrected by historians who know the bigness +of ancient cities, armies, and colonies in the respective ages of the +world, in the meantime affirming that without such difference in the +measures and periods for doubling (the extremes whereof we have +demonstrated to be real and true) it is impossible to solve what is +written in the Holy Scriptures and other authentic books. For if we +pitch upon any one number throughout for this purpose, 150 years is the +fittest of all round numbers; according to which there would have been +but 512 souls in the whole world in Moses’ time (being 800 years after +the Flood), when 603,000 Israelites of above twenty years old (besides +those of other ages, tribes, and nations) were found upon an exact survey +appointed by God, whereas our table makes 12,000,000. And there would +have been about 8,000 in David’s time, when were found 1,100,000, of +above twenty years old (besides others, as aforesaid) in Israel, upon the +survey instigated by Satan, whereas our table makes 32,000,000. And +there would have been but a quarter of a million about the birth of +Christ, or Augustus’s time, when Rome and the Roman Empire were so great, +whereas our table makes 100,000,000. Where note, that the Israelites in +about 500 years, between their coming out of Egypt to David’s reign, +increased from 603,000 to 1,100,000. + +On the other hand, if we pitch upon a less number, as 100 years, the +world would have been over-peopled 700 years since. Wherefore no one +number will solve the phenomena, and therefore we have supposed several, +in order to make the following table, which we again desire historians to +correct, according to what they find in antiquity concerning the number +of the people in each age and country of the world. + +We did (not long since) assist a worthy divine, writing against some +sceptics, who would have baffled our belief of the resurrection, by +saying, that the whole globe of the earth could not furnish matter enough +for all the bodies that must rise at the last day, much less would the +surface of the earth furnish footing for so vast a number; whereas we did +(by the method afore mentioned) assert the number of men now living, and +also of those that had died since the beginning of the world, and did +withal show, that half the island of Ireland would afford them all, not +only footing to stand upon, but graves to lie down in, for that whole +number; and that two mountains in that country were as weighty as all the +bodies that had ever been from the beginning of the world to the year +1680, when this dispute happened. For which purpose I have digressed +from my intended purpose to insert this matter, intending to prosecute +this hint further upon some more proper occasion. + + A TABLE SHOWING HOW THE PEOPLE MIGHT HAVE DOUBLED IN THE SEVERAL AGES OF + THE WORLD. + + Periods of doubling A.D., after the Persons. + Flood. +In 10 years 1 8 + 10 16 + 20 32 + 30 64 + 40 128 + 50 256 + 60 512 + 70 1,024 + 80 2,048 + 90 4,096 + 100 8,000 and more. + 120 16,000 +In 20 years 140 32,000 +In 30 years 170 64,000 + 200 128,000 +40 240 256,000 +50 290 512,000 +60 350 1,000,000 and more. +70 420 2,000,000 +100 520 4,000,000 +190 710 8,000,000 +290 1,000 16,000,000 in Moses’ + time. +400 1,400 32,000,000 about + David’s time. +550 1,950 64,000,000 +750 2,700 128,000,000 about the + birth of Christ. +1,000 3,700 256,000,000 + 300 +In 300 / 1,200 4,000 320,000,000 + +It is here to be noted, that in this table we have assigned a different +number of years for the time of doubling the people in the several ages +of the world, and might have done the same for the several countries of +the world, and therefore the said several periods assigned to the whole +world in the lump may well enough consist with the 360 years especially +assigned to England, between this day and the Norman Conquest; and the +said 360 years may well enough serve for a supposition between this time +and that of the world’s being fully peopled; nor do we lay any stress +upon one or the other in this disquisition concerning the growth of the +city of London. + +We have spoken of the growth of London, with the measures and periods +thereof; we come next to the causes and consequences of the same. + +The causes of its growth from 1642 to 1682 may be said to have been as +follows, viz.:—From 1642 to 1650, that men came out of the country to +London, to shelter themselves from the outrages of the Civil Wars during +that time; from 1650 to 1660, the royal party came to London for their +more private and inexpensive living; from 1660 to 1670, the king’s +friends and party came to receive his favours after his happy +restoration; from 1670 to 1680, the frequency of plots and parliaments +might bring extraordinary numbers to the city; but what reasons to assign +for the like increase from 1604 to 1642 I know not, unless I should pick +out some remarkable accident happening in each part of the said period, +and make that to be the cause of this increase (as vulgar people make the +cause of every man’s sickness to be what he did last eat), wherefore, +rather than so to say _quidlibet de quolibet_, I had rather quit even +what I have above said to be the cause of London’s increase from 1642 to +1682, and put the whole upon some natural and spontaneous benefits and +advantages that men find by living in great more than in small societies, +and shall therefore seek for the antecedent causes of this growth in the +consequences of the like, considered in greater characters and +proportions. + +Now, whereas in arithmetic, out of two false positions the truth is +extracted, so I hope out of two extravagant contrary suppositions to draw +forth some solid and consistent conclusion, viz.:— + +The first of the said two suppositions is, that the city of London is +seven times bigger than now, and that the inhabitants of it are 4,690,000 +people, and that in all the other cities, ports, towns, and villages, +there are but 2,710,000 more. + +The other supposition is, that the city of London is but a seventh part +of its present bigness, and that the inhabitants of it are but 96,000, +and that the rest of the inhabitants (being 7,304,000) do cohabit thus: +104,000 of them in small cities and towns, and that the rest, being +7,200,000, do inhabit in houses not contiguous to one another, viz., in +1,200,000 houses, having about twenty-four acres of ground belonging to +each of them, accounting about 28,000,000 of acres to be in the whole +territory of England, Wales, and the adjacent islands, which any man that +pleases may examine upon a good map. + +Now, the question is, in which of these two imaginary states would be the +most convenient, commodious, and comfortable livings? + +But this general question divides itself into the several questions, +relating to the following particulars, viz.:— + +1. For the defence of the kingdom against foreign powers. + +2. For preventing the intestine commotions of parties and factions. + +3. For peace and uniformity in religion. + +4. For the administration of justice. + +5. For the proportionably taxing of the people, and easy levying the +same. + +6. For gain by foreign commerce. + +7. For husbandry, manufacture, and for arts of delight and ornament. + +8. For lessening the fatigue of carriages and travelling. + +9. For preventing beggars and thieves. + +10. For the advancement and propagation of useful learning. + +11. For increasing the people by generation. + +12. For preventing the mischiefs of plagues and contagious. And withal, +which of the said two states is most practicable and natural, for in +these and the like particulars do lie the tests and touchstones of all +proposals that can be made for the public good. + +First, as to practicable, we say, that although our said extravagant +proposals are both in nature possible, yet it is not obvious to every man +to conceive how London, now seven times bigger than in the beginning of +Queen Elizabeth’s reign, should be seven times bigger than now it is, and +forty-nine times bigger than A.D. 1560. To which I say, 1. That the +present city of London stands upon less than 2,500 acres of ground, +wherefore a city seven times as large may stand upon 10,500 acres, which +is about equivalent to a circle of four miles and a half in diameter, and +less than fifteen miles in circumference. 2. That a circle of ground of +thirty-five miles semidiameter will bear corn, garden-stuff, fruits, hay, +and timber, for the 4,690,000 inhabitants of the said city and circle, so +as nothing of that kind need be brought from above thirty-five miles +distance from the said city; for the number of acres within the said +circle, reckoning two acres sufficient to furnish bread and drink-corn +for every head, and two acres will furnish hay for every necessary horse; +and that the trees which may grow in the hedgerows of the fields within +the said circle may furnish timber for 600,000 houses. 3. That all live +cattle and great animals can bring themselves to the said city; and that +fish can be brought from the Land’s End and Berwick as easily as now. 4. +Of coals there is no doubt: and for water, 20s. per family (or £600,000 +per annum in the whole) will serve this city, especially with the help of +the New River. But if by practicable be understood that the present +state may be suddenly changed into either of the two above-mentioned +proposals, I think it is not practicable. Wherefore the true question +is, unto or towards which of the said two extravagant states it is best +to bend the present state by degrees, viz., Whether it be best to lessen +or enlarge the present city? In order whereunto, we inquire (as to the +first question) which state is most defensible against foreign powers, +saying, that if the above-mentioned housing, and a border of ground, of +three-quarters of a mile broad, were encompassed with a wall and ditch of +twenty miles about (as strong as any in Europe, which would cost but a +million, or about a penny in the shilling of the house-rent for one year) +what foreign prince could bring an army from beyond seas, able to beat—1. +Our sea-forces, and next with horse harassed at sea, to resist all the +fresh horse that England could make, and then conquer above a million of +men, well united, disciplined, and guarded within such a wall, distant +everywhere three-quarters of a mile from the housing, to elude the +granadoes and great shot of the enemy? 2. As to intestine parties and +factions, I suppose that 4,690,000 people united within this great city +could easily govern half the said number scattered without it, and that a +few men in arms within the said city and wall could also easily govern +the rest unarmed, or armed in such a manner as the Sovereign shall think +fit. 3. As to uniformity in religion, I conceive, that if St. Martin’s +parish (may as it doth) consist of about 40,000 souls, that this great +city also may as well be made but as one parish, with seven times 130 +chapels, in which might not only be an uniformity of common prayer, but +in preaching also; for that a thousand copies of one judiciously and +authentically composed sermon might be every week read in each of the +said chapels without any subsequent repetition of the same, as in the +case of homilies. Whereas in England (wherein are near 10,000 parishes, +in each of which upon Sundays, holy days, and other extraordinary +occasions there should be about 100 sermons annum, making about a million +of sermons per annum in the whole) it were a miracle, if a million of +sermons composed by so many men, and of so many minds and methods, should +produce uniformity upon the discomposed understandings of about 8,000,000 +of hearers. + +4. As to the administration of justice. If in this great city shall +dwell the owners of all the lands, and other valuable things in England; +if within it shall be all the traders, and all the courts, offices, +records, juries, and witnesses; then it follows that justice may be done +with speed and ease. + +5. As to the equality and easy levying of taxes. It is too certain that +London hath at some time paid near half the excise of England, and that +the people pay thrice as much for the hearths in London as those in the +country, in proportion to the people of each, and that the charge of +collecting these duties have been about a sixth part of the duty itself. +Now in this great city the excise alone according to the present laws +would not only be double to the whole kingdom, but also more equal. And +the duty of hearths of the said city would exceed the present proceed of +the whole kingdom. And as for the customs we mention them not at +present. + +6. Whether more would be gained by foreign commerce? The gain which +England makes by lead, coals, the freight of shipping, &c., may be the +same, for aught I see, in both cases. But the gain which is made by +manufactures will be greater as the manufacture itself is greater and +better. For in so vast a city manufactures will beget one another, and +each manufacture will be divided into as many parts as possible, whereby +the work of each artisan will be simple and easy. As, for example, in +the making of a watch, if one man shall make the wheels, another the +spring, another shall engrave the dial-plate, and another shall make the +cases, then the watch will be better and cheaper than if the whole work +be put upon any one man. And we also see that in towns, and in the +streets of a great town, where all the inhabitants are almost of one +trade, the commodity peculiar to those places is made better and cheaper +than elsewhere. Moreover, when all sorts of manufactures are made in one +place, there every ship that goeth forth can suddenly have its loading of +so many several particulars and species as the port whereunto she is +bound can take off. Again, when the several manufactures are made in one +place, and shipped off in another, the carriage, postage, and travelling +charges, will enhance the price of such manufacture, and lessen the gain +upon foreign commerce. And lastly, when the imported goods are spent in +the port itself, where they are landed, the carriage of the same into +other places will create no further charge upon such commodity; all which +particulars tend to the greater gain by foreign commerce. + +7. As for arts of delight and ornament. They are best promoted by the +greatest number of emulators. And it is more likely that one ingenious +curious man may rather be found out amongst 4,000,000 than 400 persons. +But as for husbandry, viz., tillage and pasturage, I see no reason, but +the second state (when each family is charged with the culture of about +twenty-four acres) will best promote the same. + +8. As for lessening the fatigue of carriage and travelling. + +The thing speaks for itself, for if all the men of business, and all +artisans, do live within five miles of each other, and if those who live +without the great city do spend only such commodities as grow where they +live, then the charge of carriage and travelling could be little. + +9. As to the preventing of beggars and thieves. + +I do not find how the differences of the said two states should make much +difference in this particular; for impotents (which are but one in about +600) ought to be maintained by the rest. 2. Those who are unable to +work, through the evil education of their parents, ought (for aught I +know) to be maintained by their nearest kindred, as a just punishment +upon them. 3. And those who cannot find work (though able and willing to +perform it), by reason of the unequal application of hands to lands, +ought to be provided for by the magistrate and landlord till that can be +done; for there need be no beggars in countries where there are many +acres of unimproved improvable land to every head, as there are in +England. As for thieves, they are for the most part begotten from the +same cause; for it is against Nature that any man should venture his +life, limb, or liberty, for a wretched livelihood, whereas moderate +labour will produce a better. But of this see Sir Thomas More, in the +first part of his “Utopia.” + +10. As to the propagation and improvement of useful learning. + +The same may be said concerning it as was above said concerning +manufactures, and the arts of delight and ornaments; for in the great +vast city there can be no so odd a conceit or design whereunto some +assistance may not be found, which in the thin, scattered way of +habitation may not be. + +11. As for the increase of people by generation. I see no great +difference from either of the two states, for the same may be hindered or +promoted in either from the same causes. + +12. As to the plague. + +It is to be remembered that one time with another a plague happeneth in +London once in twenty years, or thereabouts; for in the last hundred +years, between the years 1582 and 1682, there have been five great +plagues—viz., A.D. 1592, 1603, 1625, 1636, and 1665. And it is also to +be remembered that the plagues of London do commonly kill one-fifth part +of the inhabitants. Now if the whole people of England do double but in +360 years, then the annual increase of the same is but 20,000, and in +twenty years 400,000. But if in the city of London there should be +2,000,000 of people (as there will be about sixty years hence), then the +plague (killing one-fifth of them, namely, 400,000 once in twenty years) +will destroy as many in one year as the whole nation can re-furnish in +twenty; and consequently the people of the nation shall never increase. +But if the people of London shall be above 4,000,000 (as in the first of +our two extravagant suppositions is premised), then the people of the +whole nation shall lessen above 20,000 per annum. So as if people be +worth £70 per head (as hath elsewhere been shown), then the said +greatness of the city will be a damage to itself and the whole nation of +£1,400,000 per annum, and so _pro rata_ for a greater or lesser number; +wherefore to determine which of the two states is best—that is to say, +towards which of the said two states authority should bend the present +state, a just balance ought to be made between the disadvantages from the +plague, with the advantages accruing from the other particulars above +mentioned, unto which balance a more exact account of the people, and a +better rule for the measure of its growth is necessary than what we have +here given, or are yet able to lay down. + + + +POSTSCRIPT. + + +IT was not very pertinent to a discourse concerning the growth of the +city of London to thrust in considerations of the time when the whole +world will be fully peopled; and how to justify the Scriptures concerning +the number of people mentioned in them; and concerning the number of the +quick and the dead that may rise at the last day, &c. Nevertheless, +since some friends, liking the said digressions and impertinences +(perhaps as sauce to a dry discourse) have desired that the same might be +explained and made out, I, therefore, say as followeth:— + +1. If the number of acres in the habitable part of the earth be under +50,000,000,000; if 20,000,000,000 of people are more than the said number +of acres will feed (few or no countries being so fully peopled), and for +that in six doublings (which will be in 2,000 years) the present +320,000,000 will exceed the said 20,000,000,000. + +2. That the number of all those who have died since the Flood is the sum +of all the products made by multiplying the number of the doubling +periods mentioned in the first column of the last table, by the number of +people respectively affixed to them in the third column of the same +table, the said sum being divided by 40 (one dying out of 40 per annum +out of the whole mass of mankind), which quotient is 12,570,000,000; +whereunto may be added, for those that died before the Flood, enough to +make the last-mentioned number 20,000,000,000, as the full number of all +that died from the beginning of the world to the year 1682, unto which, +if 320,000,000, the number of those who are now alive, be added, the +total of the quick and the dead will amount but unto one fifth part of +the graves which the surface of Ireland will afford, without ever putting +two bodies into any one grave; for there be in Ireland 28,000 square +English miles, each whereof will afford about 4,000,000 of graves, and +consequently above 114,000,000,000 of graves, viz., about five times the +number of the quick and the dead which should arise at the last day, in +case the same had been in the year 1682. + +3. Now, if there may be place for five times as many graves in Ireland +as are sufficient for all that ever died, and if the earth of one grave +weigh five times as much as the body interred therein, then a turf less +than a foot thick pared off from a fifth part of the surface of Ireland, +will be equivalent in bulk and weight to all the bodies that ever were +buried, and may serve as well for that purpose as the two mountains +aforementioned in the body of this discourse. From all which it is plain +how madly they were mistaken who did so petulantly vilify what the Holy +Scriptures have delivered. + + + + +FURTHER OBSERVATION UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS; + + + _Or_, _Accounts of the Houses_, _Hearths_, _Baptisms_, _and Burials in + that City_. + + + +THE STATIONER TO THE READER. + + +I HAVE not thought fit to make any alteration of the first edition, but +have only added a new table, with observation upon it, placing the same +in the front of what was before, which, perhaps, might have been as well +placed after the like table at the eighth page of the first edition. + + * * * * * + + DUBLIN, 1682. + +Parishes. Houses. Fireplaces. Baptised. Buried. +St. James’s 272 836 } 122 306 +St. 540 2,198 } +Katherine’s +St. 1,064 4,082 145 414 +Nicholas +Without and +St. +Patrick’s +St. 395 1,903 68 149 +Bridget’s +St. 276 1,510 56 164 +Audone’s +St. 174 884 34 50 +Michael’s +St. John’s 302 1,636 74 101 +St. 153 902 26 52 +Nicholas +Within and +Christ +Church Lib. +St. 240 1,638 45 105 +Warburgh’s +St. 938 3,516 124 389 +Michan’s +St. 864 3,638 131 300 +Andrew’s +St. Kevin’s 554 2,120 } 87 233 +Donnybrook 253 506 } + 6,025 25,369 912 2,263 + +The table hath been made for the year 1682, wherein is to be noted— + +1. That the houses which A.D. 1671 were but 3,850 are, A.D. 1682, 6,025; +but whether this difference is caused by the real increase of housing, or +by fraud and defect in the former accounts, is left to consideration. +For the burials of people have increased but from 1,696 to 2,263, +according to which proportion the 3,850 houses A.D. 1671 should A.D. 1682 +have been but 5,143, wherefore some fault may be suspected as aforesaid, +when farming the hearth-money was in agitation. + +2. The hearths have increased according to the burials, and one-third of +the said increase more, viz., the burials A.D. 1671 were 1,696, the +one-third whereof is 563, which put together makes 2,259, which is near +the number of burials A.D. 1682. But the hearths A.D. 1671 were 17,500, +whereof the one-third is 5,833, making in all but 23,333; whereas the +whole hearths A.D. 1682 were 25,369, viz., one-third and better of the +said 5,833 more. + +3. The housing were A.D. 1671 but 3,850, which if they had increased +A.D. 1682 but according to the burials, they had been but 5,143, or, +according to the hearths, had been but 5,488, whereas they appear 6,025, +increasing double to the hearths. So as it is likely there hath been +some error in the said account of the housing, unless the new housing be +very small, and have but one chimney apiece, and that one-fourth part of +them are untenanted. On the other hand, it is more likely that when +1,696 died per annum there were near 6,000; for 6,000 houses at 8 +inhabitants per house, would make the number of the people to be 48,000, +and the number of 1,696 that died according to the rule of one out of 30, +would have made the number of inhabitants about 50,000: for which reason +I continue to believe there was some error in the account of 3,850 houses +as aforesaid, and the rather because there is no ground from experience +to think that in eleven years the houses in Dublin have increased from +3,850 to 6,025. + +Moreover, I rather think that the number of 6,025 is yet short, because +that number at 8 heads per house makes the inhabitants to be but 48,200; +whereas the 2,263 who died in the year 1682, according to the +aforementioned rule of one dying out of 30 makes the number of people to +be 67,890, the medium betwixt which number and 48,200 is 58,045, which is +the best estimate I can make of that matter, which I hope authority will +ere long rectify, by direct and exact inquiries. + +4. As to the births, we say that A.D. 1640, 1641, and 1642, at London, +just before the troubles in religion began, the births were five-sixths +of the burials, by reason I suppose of the greaterness of families in +London above the country, and the fewer breeders, and not for want of +registering. Wherefore, deducting one-sixth of 2,263, which is 377, +there remains 1,886 for the probable number of births in Dublin for the +year 1682; whereas but 912 are represented to have been christened in +that year, though 1,023 were christened A.D. 1671, when there died but +1,696, which decreasing of the christening, and increasing of the +burials, shows the increase of non-registering in the legal books, which +must be the increase of Roman Catholics at Dublin. + +The scope of this whole paper therefore is, that the people of Dublin are +rather 58,000 than 32,000, and that the dissenters, who do not register +their baptisms, have increased from 391 to 974: but of dissenters, none +have increased but the Roman Catholics, whose numbers have increased from +about two to five in the said years. The exacter knowledge whereof may +also be better had from direct inquiries. + + + + +OBSERVATIONS UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS OF MORTALITY, 1681: AND THE STATE OF +THAT CITY. + + +THE observations upon the London bills of mortality have been a new light +to the world, and the like observation upon those of Dublin may serve as +snuffers to make the same candle burn clearer. + +The London observations flowed from bills regularly kept for near one +hundred years, but these are squeezed out of six straggling London bills, +out of fifteen Dublin bills, and from a note of the families and hearths +in each parish of Dublin, which are all digested into the one table or +sheet annexed, consisting of three parts, marked A, B, C; being indeed +the A, B, C of public economy, and even of that policy which tends to +peace and plenty. + + +_Observations upon the Table A_. + + +1. The total of the burials in London (for the said six straggling years +mentioned in the Table A) is 120,170, whereof the medium or sixth part is +20,028, and exceeds the burials of Paris, as may appear by the late bills +of that city. + +2. The births, for the same time, are 73,683, the medium or sixth part +whereof is 12,280, which is about five-eighth parts of the burials, and +shows that London would in time decrease quite away, were it not supplied +out of the country, where are about five births for four burials, the +proportion of breeders in the country being greater than in the city. + +3. The burials in Dublin for the said six years were 9,865, the sixth +part or medium whereof is 1,644, which is about the twelfth part of the +London burials, and about a fifth part over. So as the people of London +do hereby seem to be above twelve times as many as those of Dublin. + +4. The births in the same time at Dublin are 6,157, the sixth part or +medium whereof is 1,026, which is also about five-eighth parts of the +1,644 burials, which shows that the proportion between burials and births +are alike at London and Dublin, and that the accounts are kept alike, and +consequently are likely to be true, there being no confederacy for that +purpose; which, if they be true, we then say— + +5. That the births are the best way (till the accounts of the people +shall be purposely taken) whereby to judge of the increase and decrease +of people, that of burials being subject to more contingencies and +variety of causes. + +6. If births be as yet the measure of the people, and that the births +(as has been shown) are as five to eight, then eight-fifths of the births +is the number of the burials, where the year was not considerable for +extraordinary sickness or salubrity, and is the rule whereby to measure +the same. As for example, the medium of births in Dublin was 1,026, the +eight-fifths whereof is 1,641, but the real burials were 1,644; so as in +the said years they differed little from the 1,641, which was the +standard of health, and consequently the years 1680, 1674, and 1668 were +sickly years, more or less, as they exceeded the said number, 1,641; and +the rest were healthful years, more or less, as they fell short of the +same number. But the city was more or less populous, as the births +differed from the number 1,026, viz., populous in the years 1680, 1679, +1678, and 1668, for other causes of this difference in births are very +occult and uncertain. + +7. What hath been said of Dublin, serves also for London. + +8. It hath already been observed by the London bills that there are more +males than females. It is to be further noted, that in these six London +bills, also, there is not one instance either in the births or burials to +the contrary. + +9. It hath been formerly observed that in the years wherein most die +fewest are born, and _vice versa_. The same may be further observed in +males and females, viz., when fewest males are born then most die: for +here the males died as twelve to eleven, which is above the mean +proportion of fourteen to thirteen, but were born but as nineteen to +eighteen, which is below the same. + + +_Observations upon the Table B_. + + +1. From the Table B it appears that the medium of the fifteen years’ +burials (being 24,199) is 1,613, whereas the medium of the other six +years in the Table A was 1,644, and that the medium of the fifteen years’ +births (being in all 14,765) is 984, whereas the medium of the said other +six years was 1,026. That is to say, there were both fewer births and +burials in these fifteen years than in the other six years, which is a +probable sign that at a medium there were fewer people also. + +2. The medium of births for the fifteen years being 984, whereof +eight-fifths (being 1,576) is the standard of health for the said fifteen +years; and the triple of the said 1,576 being 4,728, is the standard for +each of the ternaries of the fifteen years within the said table. + +3. That 2,952, the triple of 984 births, is for each ternary the +standard of people’s increase and decrease from the year 1666 to 1680 +inclusive, viz., the people increased in the second ternary, and +decreased from the same in the third and fourth ternaries, but +re-increased in the fifth ternary beyond any other. + +4. That the last ternary was withal very healthful, the burials being +but 4,624, viz., below 4,728, the standard. + +5. That according to this proportion of increase, the housing of Dublin +have probably increased also. + + +_Observations upon the Table C_. + + +1. First, from the Table C it appears, 1. That the housing of Dublin is +such, as that there are not five hearths in each house one with another, +but nearer five than four. + +2. That in St. Warburgh’s parish are near six hearths to a house. In +St. John’s five. In St. Michael’s above five. In St. Nicholas Within +above six. In Christ Church above seven. In St. James’s and St. +Katherine’s, and in St. Michan’s, not four. In St. Kevin’s about four. + +3. That in St. James’s, St. Michan’s, St. Bride’s, St. Warburgh’s, St. +Andrew’s, St. Michael’s, and St. Patrick’s, all the christenings were but +550, and the burials 1,055, viz., near double; and that in the rest of +the parishes the christenings were five, and the burials seven, viz., as +457 to 634. Now whether the cause of this difference was negligence in +accounts, or the greaterness of the families, &c., is worth inquiring. + +4. It is hard to say in what order (as to greatness) these parishes +ought to stand, some having most families, some most hearths, some most +births, and others most burials. Some parishes exceeding the rest in +two, others in three of the said four particulars, but none in all four. +Wherefore this table ranketh them according to the plurality of the said +four particulars wherein each excelleth the other. + +5. The London observations reckon eight heads in each family, according +to which estimation, there are 32,000 souls in the 4,000 families of +Dublin, which is but half of what most men imagine, of which but about +one sixth part are able to bear arms, besides the royal regiment. + +6. Without the knowledge of the true number of people, as a principle, +the whole scope and use of the keeping bills of births and burials is +impaired; wherefore by laborious conjectures and calculations to deduce +the number of people from the births and burials, may be ingenious, but +very preposterous. + +7. If the number of families in Dublin be about 4,000, then ten men in +one week (at the charge of about £5 surveying eight families in an hour) +may directly, and without algebra, make an account of the whole people, +expressing their several ages, sex, marriages, title, trade, religion, +&c., and those who survey the hearths, or the constables or the parish +clerks (may, if required) do the same ex officio, and without other +charge, by the command of the chief governor, the diocesan, or the mayor. + +8. The bills of London have since their beginning admitted several +alterations and improvements, and £8 or £10 per annum surcharge, would +make the bills of Dublin to exceed all others, and become an excellent +instrument of Government. To which purpose the forms for weekly, +quarterly, and yearly bills are humbly recommended, viz. + + + +TABLE A—YEARLY BILLS OF MORTALITY FOR + + LONDON DUBLIN LONDON +A.D. Burials Births Burials Births Male Female Male Female + 1680 21,053 12,747 1,826 1,096 11,039 10,044 6,543 6,041 + 1679 21,730 12,288 1,397 1,061 11,154 10,576 6,247 6,041 + 1678 20,678 12,601 1,401 1,045 10,681 9,977 6,568 6,033 + 1674 21,201 11,851 2,106 942 11,000 10,196 6,113 5,738 + 1672 18,230 12,563 1,436 987 9,560 8,070 6,443 6,120 + 1668 17,278 11,633 1,699 1,026 9,111 8,167 6,073 5,566 + 120,170 73,683 9,865 6,157 62,545 57,030 37,992 35,697 + The medium or 6th part whereof is part whereof is + 20,028 12,280 1,644 1,026 10,424 9,505 6,332 5,949 + +TABLE B.—DUBLIN. + + A.D. Burials. Births. In Ternaries of Years + 1666 1,480 952 4,821 2,979 + 1667 1,642 1,001 + 1668 1,699 1,026 + 1669 1,666 1,000 5,353 3,070 + 1670 1,713 1,067 + 1671 1,974 1,003 + 1672 1,436 967 5,073 2,842 + 1673 1,531 933 + 1674 2,106 942 + 1675 1,578 823 4,328 2,672 + 1676 1,391 952 + 1677 1,359 897 + 1678 1,401 1,045 4,624 3,202 + 1679 1,397 1,061 + 1680 1,826 1,096 + 24,199 14,765 24,199 14,765 + The medium or 15th part whereof is + 1,613 984 1,613 984 + +TABLE C. + + THE A.D. 1671. A.D., 1670–71–72 at a +PARISHES OF medium + DUBLIN + Families Hearths Births Burials +St. 661 2,399 161 290 +Katherine’s +and St. +James’s +St. 490 2,348 207 262 +Nicholas +Without +St. 656 2,301 127 221 +Michan’s +St. 483 2,123 108 178 +Andrew’s +with +Donnybrook +St. 416 1,989 70 100 +Bridget’s +St. John’s 244 1,337 70 138 +St. 267 1,650 54 103 +Warburgh’s +St. 216 1,081 53 121 +Audaen’s +St. 140 793 44 59 +Michael’s +St. Kevin’s 106 433 64 133 +St. 93 614 28 34 +Nicholas +Within +St. 52 255 21 44 +Patrick’s +Liberties +Christ 26 197 — 1 +Church and +Trinity +College, +per +estimate + 3,850 17,500 1,013 1,696 +Houses 150 550 +built +between +1671 and +1681, per +estimate + 4,000 18,150 + +A WEEKLY BILL OF MORTALITY FOR THE CITY OF DUBLIN, Ending the XXX day of +XXX 1681. {75} + + PARISHES’ NAMES. Births Males Females Burials Under 16 Plague Small Pox Measles Spotted + years old Fever +St. Katharine’s and +St. James’s +St. Nicholas Without +St. Michan’s +St. Andrew’s with +Donnybrook +St. Bridget’s +St. John’s +St. Warburgh’s +St. Audaen’s +St. Michael’s +St. Kevin’s +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick’s +Liberties +Christ Church and +Trinity College +Totals + +A QUARTERLY BILL OF MORTALITY, Beginning XXX and ending XXX for the City +of DUBLIN {76} + +PARISHES’ NAMES. Births 1. Marriages 2. Buried under 16 Buried above 60 Measles, Consumption, Fever, Aged above 70 Infants under 2 All other + years olds years old Spotted Fever, Dropsy, Gout, Pleurisy, years old years old Casualties + Small Pox, Stone Quinsy, Sudden + Plague Death +St. Katharine’s +and St. James’s +St. Nicholas +Without +St. Michan’s +St. Andrew’s with +Donnybrook +St. Bridget’s +St. John’s +St. Warburgh’s +St. Audaen’s +St. Michael’s +St. Kevin’s +St. Nicholas +Within +St. Patrick’s +Liberties +Christ Church and +Trinity College +Totals + + * * * * * + + + +AN ACCOUNT OF THE PEOPLE OF DUBLIN FOR ONE YEAR, Ending the 24th of +March, 1681. {77} + +PARISHES’ NAMES. Number of Whereof Married Persons of Protestants Papists Of all other Births Burials Marriages + person Persons religions + Males Females Under 16 Above 60 of above 16 years old + years old years old +St. Katharine’s and +St. James’s +St. Nicholas +Without +St. Michan’s +St. Andrew’s with +Donnybrook +St. Bridget’s +St. John’s +St. Warburgh’s +St. Audaen’s +St. Michael’s +St. Kevin’s +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick’s +Liberties +Christ Church and +Trinity College +Totals + +CASUALTIES AND DISEASES. + +Aged above 70 years Epilepsy and planet +Abortive and still-born Fever and ague +Childbed women Pleurisy +Convulsion Quinsy +Teeth Executed, murdered, drowned +Worms Plague and spotted fever +Gout and sciatica Griping of the guts +Stone Scouring, vomiting bleeding +Palsy Small pox +Consumption and French pox Measles +Dropsy and tympany Neither of all the other sorts +Rickets and livergrown +Headache and megrim + +A POSTSCRIPT TO THE STATIONER. + + +WHEREAS you complain that these observations make no sufficient bulk, I +could answer you that I wish the bulk of all books were less; but do +nevertheless comply with you in adding what follows, viz.: + +1. That the parishes of Dublin are very unequal; some having in them +above 600 families, and others under thirty. + +2. That thirteen parishes are too few for 4,000 families; the middling +parishes of London containing 120 families; according to which rate there +should be about thirty-three parishes in Dublin. + +3. It is said that there are 84,000 houses or families in London, which +is twenty-one times more than are in Dublin, and yet the births and +burials of London are but twelve times those of Dublin, which shows that +the inhabitants of Dublin are more crowded and straitened in their +housing than those of London; and consequently that to increase the +buildings of Dublin will make that city more conformable to London. + +4. I shall also add some reasons for altering the present forms of the +Dublin bills of mortality, according to what hath been here +recommended—viz.: + +1. We give the distinctions of males and females in the births only; for +that the burials must, at one time or another, be in the same proportion +with the births. + +2. We do in the weekly and quarterly bills propose that notice be taken +in the burials of what numbers die above sixty and seventy, and what +under sixteen, six, and two years old, foreseeing good uses to be made of +that distinction. + +3. We do in the yearly bill reduce the casualties to about twenty-four, +being such as may be discerned by common sense, and without art, +conceiving that more will but perplex and imbroil the account. And in +the quarterly bills we reduce the diseases to three heads—viz., +contagious, acute, and chronical, applying this distinction to parishes, +in order to know how the different situation, soil, and way of living in +each parish doth dispose men to each of the said three species; and in +the weekly bills we take notice not only of the plague, but of the other +contagious diseases in each parish, that strangers and fearful persons +may thereby know how to dispose of themselves. + +4. We mention the number of the people, as the fundamental term in all +our proportions; and without which all the rest will be almost fruitless. + +5. We mention the number of marriages made in every quarter, and in +every year, as also the proportion which married persons bear to the +whole, expecting in such observations to read the improvement of the +nation. + +6. As for religions, we reduce them to three—viz.: (1) those who have +the Pope of Rome for their head; (2) who are governed by the laws of +their country; (3) those who rely respectively upon their own private +judgments. Now, whether these distinctions should be taken notice of or +not, we do but faintly recommend, seeing many reasons _pro_ and _con_ for +the same; and, therefore, although we have mentioned it as a matter fit +to be considered, yet we humbly leave it to authority. + + + + +TWO ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC, + + + _Concerning the People_, _Housing_, _Hospitals_, _&c._, _of London and + Paris_. + + + +TO THE KING’S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY. + + +I DO presume, in a very small paper, to show your Majesty that your City +of London seems more considerable than the two best cities of the French +monarchy, and for aught I can find, greater than any other of the +universe, which because I can say without flattery, and by such +demonstration as your Majesty can examine, I humbly pray your Majesty to +accept from + + Your Majesty’s + + Most humble, loyal, and obedient subject, + WILLIAM PETTY. + + + +AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC + + +_Tending to prove that London hath more people and housing than the +cities of Paris and Rouen put together_, _and is also more considerable +in several other respects_. + +1. THE medium of the burials at London in the three last years—viz., +1683, 1684, and 1685, wherein there was no extraordinary sickness, and +wherein the christenings do correspond in their ordinary proportions with +the burials and christenings of each year one with another, was 22,337, +and the like medium of burials for the three last Paris bills we could +procure—viz., for the years 1682, 1683, and 1684 (whereof the last as +appears by the christenings to have been very sickly), is 19,887. + +2. The city of Bristol in England appears to be by good estimate of its +trade and customs as great as Rouen in France, and the city of Dublin in +Ireland appears to have more chimneys than Bristol, and consequently more +people, and the burials in Dublin were, A.D. 1682 (being a sickly year) +but 2,263. + +3. Now the burials of Paris (being 19,887) being added to the burials of +Dublin (supposed more than at Rouen) being 2,263, makes but 22,150, +whereas the burials of London were 187 more, or 22,337, or as about 6 to +7. + +4. If those who die unnecessarily, and by miscarriage in L’Hôtel Dieu in +Paris (being above 3,000), as hath been elsewhere shown, or any part +thereof, should be subtracted out of the Paris burials aforementioned, +then our assertion will be stronger, and more proportionable to what +follows concerning the housing of those cities, viz.: + +5. There were burnt at London, A.D. 1666, above 13,000 houses, which +being but a fifth part of the whole, the whole number of houses in the +said year were above 65,000; and whereas the ordinary burials of London +have increased between the years 1666 and 1686, above one-third the total +of the houses at London, A.D. 1686, must be about 87,000, which A.D. +1682, appeared by account to have been 84,000. + +6. Monsieur Moreri, the great French author of the late geographical +dictionaries, who makes Paris the greatest city in the world, doth reckon +but 50,000 houses in the same, and other authors and knowing men much +less; nor are there full 7,000 houses in the city of Dublin, so as if the +50,000 houses of Paris, and the 7,000 houses in the city of Dublin were +added together, the total is but 57,000 houses, whereas those of London +are 87,000 as aforesaid, or as 6 to 9. + +7. As for the shipping and foreign commerce of London, the common sense +of all men doth judge it to be far greater than that of Paris and Rouen +put together. + +8. As to the wealth and gain accruing to the inhabitants of London and +Paris by law-suits (or _La chicane_) I only say that the courts of London +extend to all England and Wales, and affect seven millions of people, +whereas those of Paris do not extend near so far. Moreover, there is no +palpable conspicuous argument at Paris for the number and wealth of +lawyers like the buildings and chambers in the two Temples, Lincoln’s +Inn, Gray’s Inn, Doctors’ Commons, and the seven other inns in which are +chimneys, which are to be seen at London, besides many lodgings, halls, +and offices, relating to the same. + +9. As to the plentiful and easy living of the people we say, + +(a.) That the people of Paris to those of London, being as about 6 to 7, +and the housing of the same as about 6 to 9, we infer that the people do +not live at London so close and crowded as at Paris, but can afford +themselves more room and liberty. + +(b.) That at London the hospitals are better and more desirable than +those of Paris, for that in the best at Paris there die two out of +fifteen, whereas at London there die out of the worst scarce 2 out of 16, +and yet but a fiftieth part of the whole die out of the hospitals at +London, and two-fifths, or twenty times that proportion die out of the +Paris hospitals which are of the same kind; that is to say, the number of +those at London, who choose to lie sick in hospitals rather than in their +own houses, are to the like people of Paris as one to twenty; which shows +the greater poverty or want of means in the people of Paris than those of +London. + +(c.) We infer from the premises, viz., the dying scarce two of sixteen +out of the London hospitals, and about two of fifteen in the best of +Paris, to say nothing of L’Hôtel Dieu, that either the physicians and +chirurgeons of London are better than those of Paris, or that the air of +London is more wholesome. + +10. As for the other great cities of the world, if Paris were the +greatest we need say no more in behalf of London. As for Pekin in China, +we have no account fit to reason upon; nor is there anything in the +description of the two late voyages of the Chinese emperor from that city +into East and West Tartary, in the years 1682 and 1683, which can make us +recant what we have said concerning London. As for Delhi and Agra, +belonging to the Mogul, we find nothing against our position, but much to +show the vast numbers which attend that emperor in his business and +pleasures. + +11. We shall conclude with Constantinople and Grand Cairo; as for +Constantinople it hath been said by one who endeavoured to show the +greatness of that city, and the greatness of the plague which raged in +it, that there died 1,500 per diem, without other circumstances; to which +we answer, that in the year 1665 there died in London 1,200 per diem, and +it hath been well proved that the Plague of London never carried away +above one-fifth of the people, whereas it is commonly believed that in +Constantinople, and other eastern cities, and even in Italy and Spain, +that the plague takes away two-fifths, one half, or more; wherefore where +1,200 is but one-fifth of the people it is probable that the number was +greater, than where 1,500 was two-fifths or one half, &c. + +12. As for Grand Cairo it is reported, that 73,000 died in ten weeks, or +1,000 per diem, where note, that at Grand Cairo the plague comes and goes +away suddenly, and that the plague takes away two or three-fifths parts +of the people as aforesaid; so as 73,000 was probably the number of those +that died of the plague in one whole year at Grand Cairo, whereas at +London, A.D. 1665, 97,000 were brought to account to have died in that +year. Wherefore it is certain, that that city wherein 97,000 was but +one-fifth of the people, the number was greater than where 73,000 was +two-fifths or the half. + +We therefore conclude, that London hath more people, housing, shipping, +and wealth, than Paris and Rouen put together; and for aught yet appears, +is more considerable than any other city in the universe, which was +propounded to be proved. + + + +AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC, + + +_Tending to prove that in the hospital called L’Hôtel Dieu at Paris_, +_there die above 3,000 per annum by reason of ill accommodation_. + +1. IT appears that A.D. 1678 there entered into the Hospital of La +Charité 2,647 souls, of which there died there within the said year 338, +which is above an eighth part of the said 2,647; and that in the same +year there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 21,491, and that there died out of +that number 5,630, which is above one quarter, so as about half the said +5,630, being 2,815, seem to have died for want of as good usage and +accommodation as might have been had at La Charité. + +2. Moreover, in the year 1679 there entered into La Charité 3,118, of +which there died 452, which is above a seventh part, and in the same year +there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 28,635, of which there died 8,397; and in +both the said years 1678 and 1679 (being very different in their degrees +of mortality) there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 28,635 and 2l,491—in all +50,126, the medium whereof is 25,063; and there died out of the same in +the said two years, 5,630 and 8,397—in all 14,027, the medium whereof is +7,013. + +3. There entered in the said years into La Charité 2,647 and 3,118, in +all 5,765, the medium whereof is 2,882, whereof there died 338 and 452, +in all 790, the medium whereof is 395. + +4. Now, if there died out of L’Hôtel Dieu 7,013 per annum, and that the +proportion of those that died out of L’Hôtel Dieu is double to those that +died out of La Charité (as by the above numbers it appears to be near +thereabouts), then it follows that half the said numbers of 7,013, being +3,506, did not die by natural necessity, but by the evil administration +of that hospital. + +5. This conclusion seemed at the first sight very strange, and rather to +be some mistake or chance than a solid and real truth; but considering +the same matter as it appeared at London, we were more reconciled to the +belief of it, viz.:— + +(_a_.) In the Hospital of St. Bartholomew in London, there was sent out +and cured in the year 1685, 1,764 persons, and there died out of the said +hospital 252. Moreover, there were sent out and cured out of St. +Thomas’s Hospital 1,523, and buried, 209—that is to say, there were cured +in both hospitals 3,287, and buried out of both hospitals 461, and +consequently cured and buried 3,748, of which number the 461 buried is +less than an eighth part; whereas at La Charité the part that died was +more than an eighth part; which shows that out of the most poor and +wretched hospitals of London there died fewer in proportion than out of +the best in Paris. + +(_b_.) Furthermore, it hath been above shown that there died out of La +Charité at a medium 395 per annum, and 141 out of Les Incurables, making +in all 536; and that out of St. Bartholomew’s and St. Thomas’s Hospitals, +London, there died at a medium but 461, of which Les Incurables are part; +which shows that although there be more people in London than in Paris, +yet there went at London not so many people to hospitals as there did at +Paris, although the poorest hospitals at London were better than the best +at Paris; which shows that the poorest people at London have better +accommodation in their own houses than the best hospital of Paris +affordeth. + +6. Having proved that there die about 3,506 persons at Paris +unnecessarily, to the damage of France, we come next to compute the value +of the said damage, and of the remedy thereof, as follows, viz., the +value of the said 3,506 at 60 livres sterling per head, being about the +value of Argier slaves (which is less than the intrinsic value of people +at Paris), the whole loss of the subjects of France in that hospital +seems to be 60 times 3,506 livres sterling per annum, viz., 210,360 +livres sterling, equivalent to about 2,524,320 French livres. + +7. It hath appeared that there came into L’Hôtel Dieu at a medium 25,063 +per annum, or 2,089 _per mensem_, and that the whole stock of what +remained in the precedent months is at a medium about 2,108 (as may +appear by the third line of the Table No. 5, which shall be shortly +published), viz., the medium of months is 2,410 for the sickly year 1679, +whereunto 1,806 being added as the medium of months for the year 1678, +makes 4,216, the medium whereof is the 2,108 above mentioned; which +number being added to the 2,089 which entered each month, makes 4,197 for +the number of sick which are supposed to be always in L’Hôtel Dieu one +time with another. + +8. Now, if 60 French livres per annum for each of the said 4,197 sick +persons were added to the present ordinary expense of that hospital +(amounting to an addition of 251,820 livres), it seems that so many lives +might be saved as are worth above ten times that sum, and this by doing a +manifest deed of charity to mankind. + +_Memorandum_.—That A.D. 1685, the burials of London were 23,222, and +those of Amsterdam 6,245; from whence, and the difference of air, it is +probable that the people of London are quadruple to those of Amsterdam. + + + + +OBSERVATIONS UPON THE CITIES OF LONDON AND ROME. + + +1. THAT before the year 1630 the christenings at London exceeded the +burials of the same, but about the year 1655 they were scarce half; and +now about two-thirds. + +2. Before the restoration of monarchy in England, A.D. 1660, the people +of Paris were more than those of London and Dublin put together, whereas +now, the people of London are more than those of Paris and Rome, or of +Paris and Rouen. + +3. A.D. 1665 one fifth part of the then people of London, or 97,000, +died of the plague, and in the next year, 1666, 13,000 houses, or one +fifth part of all the housing of London, were burnt also. + +4. At the birth of Christ old Rome was the greatest city of the world, +and London the greatest at the coronation of King James II., and near six +times as great as the present Rome, wherein are 119,000 souls besides +Jews. + +5. In the years of King Charles II.’s death, and King James II.’s +coronation (which were neither of them remarkable for extraordinary +sickliness or healthfulness) the burials did wonderfully agree, viz., +A.D. 1684, they were 23,202, and A.D. 1685, they were 23,222, the medium +whereof is 23,212. And the christenings did very wonderfully agree also, +having been A.D. 1684, 14,702, and A.D. 1685, 14,732, the medium whereof +is 14,716, which consistence was never seen before, the said number of +23,212 burials making the people of London to be 696,360, at the rate of +one dying per annum out of 30. + +6. Since the great Fire of London, A.D. 1666, about 7 parts of 15 of the +present vast city hath been new built, and is with its people increased +near one half, and become equal to Paris and Rome put together, the one +being the seat of the great French Monarchy, and the other of the Papacy. + + + + +FIVE ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. + + +I. Objections from the city of Ray in Persia, and from Monsier Auzout, +against two former essays, answered, and that London hath as many people +as Paris, Rome, and Rouen put together. + +II. A comparison between London and Paris in 14 particulars. + +III. Proofs that at London, within its 134 parishes named in the bills +of mortality, there live about 696,000 people. + +IV. An estimate of the people in London, Paris, Amsterdam, Venice, Rome, +Dublin, Bristol, and Rouen, with several observations upon the same. + +V. Concerning Holland and the rest of the Seven United Provinces. + + + +TO THE KING’S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY + + +SIR, + +YOUR MAJESTY having graciously accepted my two late essays, about the +cities and hospitals of London and Paris, as also my observations on Rome +and Rouen; I do (after six months’ waiting for what may be said against +my several doctrines by the able men of Europe) humbly present your +Majesty with a few other papers upon the same subject, to strengthen, +explain, and enlarge the former; hoping by such real arguments, better to +praise and magnify your Majesty, than by any other the most specious +words and eulogies that can be imagined by + + Your Majesty’s + + Most humble, loyal + And obedient subject, + WILLIAM PETTY. + + + +THE FIRST ESSAY. + + +IT could not be expected that an assertion of London’s being bigger than +Paris and Rouen, or than Paris and Rome put together, and bigger than any +city of the world, should escape uncontradicted; and ’tis also expected +that I (if continuing in the same persuasion), should make some reply to +those contradictions. In order whereunto, + +I begin with the ingenious author of the “_République des Lettres_,” who +saith that Rey in Persia is far bigger than London, for that in the sixth +century of Christianity (I suppose, A.D. 550 the middle of that century), +it had 15,000, or rather 44,000 mosques or Mahometan temples; to which I +reply, that I hope this objector is but in jest, for that Mahomet was not +born till about the year 570, and had no mosques till about 50 years +after. + +In the next place I reply to the excellent Monsieur Auzout’s “Letters +from Rome,” who is content that London, Westminster, and Southwark may +have as many people as Paris and its suburbs; and but faintly denieth, +that all the housing within the bills may have almost as many people as +Paris and Rouen, but saith that several parishes inserted into these +bills are distant from, and not contiguous with London, and that Grant so +understood it. + +To which (as his main if not his only objection) we answer:—(l) That the +London bills appear in Grant’s book to have been always, since the year +1636; as they now are; (2) That about fifty years since, three or four +parishes, formerly somewhat distant, were joined by interposed buildings +to the bulk of the city, and therefore then inserted into the bills; (3) +That since fifty years the whole buildings being more than double have +perfected that union, so as there is no house within the said bills from +which one may not call to some other house; (4) All this is confirmed by +authority of the king and city, and the custom of fifty years; (5) That +there are but three parishes under any colour of this exception which are +scarce one-fifty-second part of the whole. + +Upon the whole matter, upon sight of Monsieur Auzout’s large letter, +dated the 19th of November, from Rome, I made remarks upon every +paragraph thereof, but suppressing it (because it looked like a war +against a worthy person with whom I intended none, whereas, in truth, it +was but a reconciling explication of some doubts) I have chosen the +shorter and softer way of answering Monsieur Auzout as followeth, viz.:— + +Concerning the number of people in London, as also in Paris, Rouen, and +Rome, viz.:— + +Monsieur Auzout allegeth an authentic account that there are 23,223 +houses in Paris, wherein do live about eighty thousand families, and +therefore supposing three and a half families to live in every of the +said houses, one with another, the number of families will be 81,280; and +Monsier Auzout also allowing six heads to each family, the utmost number +of people in Paris, according to that opinion, will be 487,680. + +The medium of the Paris burials was not denied by Monsier Auzout to be +19,887, nor that there died 3,506 unnecessarily out of the L’Hôtel Dieu; +wherefore deducting the said last number out of the former, the net +standard for burials at Paris will be 16,381, so, as the number of people +there, allowing but one to die out of thirty (which is more advantageous +to Paris than Monsieur Auzout’s opinion of one to die out of twenty-five) +the number of people at Paris will be 491,430 more than by Monsier +Auzout’s own last-mentioned account 491,430. + +And the medium of the said two Paris accounts is 488,055. + +The medium of the London burials is really 23,212, which, multiplied by +thirty (as hath been done for Paris), the number of the people there will +be 696,360. + +The number of houses at London appears by the register to be 105,315, +whereunto adding one-tenth part of the same, or 10,315, as the least +number of double families that can be supposed in London, the total of +families will be 115,840, and allowing six heads for each family, as was +done for Paris, the total of the people at London will be 695,076. + +The medium of the two last London accounts is 695,718. +So, as the people of Paris, according to the above 488,055. +account, is +Of Rouen, according to Monsieur Auzout’s utmost demands 80,000. +Of Rome, according to his own report thereof in a 125,000. +former letter +Total 693,055. + +So as there are more people at London than at Paris, Rouen, and Rome by +2,663. + +Memorandum.—That the parishes of Islington, Newington, and Hackney, for +which only there is any colour of non-contiguity, is not one-fifty-second +part of what is contained in the bills of mortality, and consequently +London, without the said three parishes, hath more people than Paris and +Rouen put together, by 114,284. + +Which number of 114,284 is probably more people than any other city of +France contains. + + + +THE SECOND ESSAY. + + +As for other comparisons of London with Paris, we farther repeat and +enlarge what hath been formerly said upon those matters, as followeth, +viz.:— + +1. That forty per cent. die out of the hospitals at Paris where so many +die unnecessarily, and scarce one-twentieth of that proportion out of the +hospitals of London, which have been shown to be better than the best of +Paris. + +2. That at Paris 81,280 kitchens are within less than 24,000 +street-doors, which makes less cleanly and convenient way of living than +at London. + +3. Where the number of christenings are near unto, or exceed the +burials, the people are poorer, having few servants and little equipage. + +4. The river Thames is more pleasant and navigable than the Seine, and +its waters better and more wholesome; and the bridge of London is the +most considerable of all Europe. + +5. The shipping and foreign trade of London is incomparably greater than +that at Paris and Rouen. + +6. The lawyers’ chambers at London have 2,772 chimnies in them, and are +worth £140,000 sterling, or 3,000,000 of French livres, besides the +dwellings of their families elsewhere. + +7. The air is more wholesome, for that at London scarce two of sixteen +die out of the worst hospitals, but at Paris above two of fifteen out of +the best. Moreover the burials of Paris are one-fifth part above and +below the medium, but at London not above one-twelfth, so as the +intemperies of the air at Paris is far greater than at London. + +8. The fuel cheaper, and lies in less room, the coals being a wholesome +sulphurous bitumen. + +9. All the most necessary sorts of victuals, and of fish, are cheaper, +and drinks of all sorts in greater variety and plenty. + +10. The churches of London we leave to be judged by thinking that +nothing at Paris is so great as St. Paul’s was, and is like to be, nor so +beautiful as Henry the Seventh’s chapel. + +11. On the other hand, it is probable, that there is more money in Paris +than London, if the public revenue (grossly speaking, quadruple to that +of England) be lodged there. + +12. Paris hath not been for these last fifty years so much infested with +the plague as London; now that at London the plague (which between the +years 1591 and 1666 made five returns, viz., every fifteen years, at a +medium, and at each time carried away one-fifth of the people) hath not +been known for the 21 years last past, and there is a visible way by +God’s ordinary blessing to lessen the same by two-thirds when it next +appeareth. + +13. As to the ground upon which Paris stands in respect of London, we +say, that if there be five stories or floors of housing at Paris, for +four at London, or in that proportion, then the 82,000 families of Paris +stand upon the equivalent of 65,000 London housteds, and if there be +115,000 families at London, and but 82,000 at Paris, then the proportion +of the London ground to that of Paris is as 115 to sixty-five, or as +twenty-three to thirteen. + +14. Moreover Paris is said to be an oval of three English miles long and +two and a half broad, the area whereof contains but five and a half +square miles; but London is seven miles long, and one and a quarter broad +at a medium, which makes an area of near nine square miles, which +proportion of five and half to nine differs little from that of thirteen +to twenty-three. + +15. Memorandum, that in Nero’s time, as Monsieur Chivreau reporteth, +there died 300,000 people of the plague in old Rome; now if there died +three of ten then and there, being a hotter country, as there dies two of +ten at London, the number of people at that time, was but a million, +whereas at London they are now about 700,000. Moreover the ground within +the walls of old Rome was a circle but of three miles diameter, whose +area is about seven square miles, and the suburbs scarce as much more, in +all about thirteen square miles, whereas the built ground at London is +about nine square miles as aforesaid; which two sorts of proportions +agree with each other, and consequently old Rome seems but to have been +half as big again as the present London, which we offer to antiquaries. + + + +THE THIRD ESSAY. + + +PROOFS that the number of people in the 134 parishes of the London bills +of mortality, without reference to other cities, is about 696,000, viz.— + +I know but three ways of finding the same. + +1. By the houses, and families, and heads living in each. + +2. By the number of burials in healthful times, and by the proportion of +those that live, to those that die. + +3. By the number of those who die of the plague in pestilential years, +in proportion to those that escape. + + +_The First Way_. + + +To know the number of houses, I used three methods, viz.— + +1. The number of houses which were burnt A.D. 1666, which by authentic +report was 13,200; next what proportion the people who died out of those +houses, bore to the whole; which I find A.D. 1686, to be but one seventh +part, but A.D. 1666 to be almost one-fifth, from whence I infer the whole +housing of London A.D. 1666 to have been 66,000, then finding the burials +A.D. 1666 to be to those of 1686 as 3 to 4,I pitch upon 88,000 to be the +number of housing A.D. 1686. + +2. Those who have been employed in making the general map of London, set +forth in the year 1682, told me that in that year they had found above +84,000 houses to be in London, wherefore A.D. 1686, or in four years +more, there might be one-tenth or 8,400 houses more (London doubling in +forty years) so as the whole, A.D. 1686 might be 92,400. + +3. I found that A.D. 1685, there were 29,325 hearths in Dublin, and +6,400 houses, and in London 388 thousand hearths, whereby there must have +been at that rate 87,000 houses in London. Moreover I found that in +Bristol there were in the same year 16,752 hearth; and 5,307 houses, and +in London 388,000 hearths as aforesaid; at which rate there must have +been 123,000 houses in London, and at a medium between Dublin and Bristol +proportions 105,000 houses. + +Lastly, by certificate from the hearth office, I find the houses within +the bills of mortality to be 105,315. + +Having thus found the houses, I proceed next to the number of families in +them, and first I thought that if there were three or four families or +kitchens in every house of Paris, there might be two families in +one-tenth of the housing of London; unto which supposition, the common +opinion of several friends doth concur with my own conjectures. + +As to the number of heads in each family, I stick to Grant’s observation +in page — of his fifth edition, that in tradesmen of London’s families +there be eight heads one with another, in families of higher ranks, above +ten, and in the poorest near live, according to which proportions, I had +upon another occasion pitched the medium of heads in all the families of +England to be six and one-third, but quitting the fraction in this case, +I agree with Monsieur Auzout for six. + +To conclude, the houses of London being 105,315 and the addition of +double families 10,531 more, in all 115,846; I multiplied the same by +six, which produced 695,076 for the number of the people. + + +_The Second Way_. + + +I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, and both +healthful, did wonderfully agree in their burials, viz., 1684 they were +23,202, and A.D. 1685 23,222, the medium whereof is 23,212; moreover that +the christenings 1684 were 14,702, and those A.D. 1685 were 14,730, +wherefore I multiplied the medium of burials 23,212 by 30, supposing that +one dies out of 30 at London, which made the number of people 696,360 +souls. + +Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London or thereabouts, I say— + +1. That Grant in the — page of his fifth edition, affirmeth from +observation, that 3 died of 88 per annum which is near the same +proportion. + +2. I found that out of healthful places, and out of adult persons, there +dies much fewer, as but one out of 50 among our parliament men, and that +the kings of England having reigned 24 years one with another, probably +lived above 30 years each. + +3. Grant, page — hath shown that but about one of 20 die per annum out +of young children under 10 years old, and Monsieur Auzout thinks that but +1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion of adult persons +there, wherefore we still stick as a medium to the number 30. + +4. In nine country parishes lying in several parts of England, I find +that but one of 37 hath died per annum, or 311 out of 11,507, wherefore +till I see another round number, grounded upon many observations, nearer +than 30, I hope to have done pretty well in multiplying our burials by 30 +to find the number of the people, the product being 696,360, and what we +find by the families they are 695,076, as aforesaid. + + +_The Third Way_. + + +It was proved by Grant, that one-fifth of the people died of the plague, +but A.D. 1665 there died of the plague near 98,000 persons, the quintuple +whereof is 490,000 as the number of people in the year 1665, whereunto +adding above one-third, as the increase between 1665 and 1686, the total +is 653,000, agreeing well enough with the other two computations above +mentioned. + +Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue till a better be put in +its place. + +_Memorandum_. That two or three hundred new houses would make a +contiguity of two or three other great parishes, with the 134 already +mentioned in the bills of mortality: and that an oval wall of about +twenty miles in compass would enclose the same, and all the shipping at +Deptford and Blackwall, and would also fence in 20,000 acres of land, and +lay the foundation or designation of several vast advantages to the +owners, and inhabitants of that ground, as also to the whole nation and +government. + + + +THE FOURTH ESSAY. + + +_Concerning the proportions of People in the eight eminent Cities of +Christendom undernamed_, viz.:— + +1. WE have by the number of burials in healthful years, and by the +proportion of the living to those who die yearly, as also by the number +of houses and families within the 134 parishes called London, and the +estimate of the heads in each, pitched upon the number of people in that +city to be at a medium 695,718. + +2. We have, by allowing that at Paris above 80,000 families, viz., +81,280, do live in 23,223 houses, 32 palaces, and 38 colleges, or that +there are 81,280 kitchens within less than 24,000 street doors; as also +by allowing 30 heads for every one that died necessarily there; we have +pitched upon the number of people there at a medium to be 488,055, nor +have we restrained them to 300,000, by allowing with Monsieur Auzout 6 +heads for each of Moreri’s 50,000 houses or families. + +3. To Amsterdam we allow 187,350 souls, viz., 30 times the number of +their burials, which were 6,245 in the year 1685. + +4. To Venice we allow 134,000 souls, as found there in a special account +taken by authority, about ten years since, when the city abounded with +such as returned from Candia, then surrendered to the Turks. + +5. To Rome we allow 119,000 Christians, and 6,000 Jews, in all 125,000 +souls, according to an account sent thither of the same by Monsieur +Auzout. + +6. To Dublin we allow (as to Amsterdam) 30 times its burials, the medium +whereof for the last two years is 2,303, viz., 69,090 souls. + +7. As to Bristol, we say that if the 6,400 houses of Dublin give 69,090 +people, that the 5,307 houses of Bristol must give above 56,000 people. +Moreover, if the 29,325 hearths of Dublin give 69,090 people, the 16,752 +hearths of Bristol must give about 40,000; but the medium of 56,000 and +40,000 is 48,000. + +8. As for Rouen, we have no help, but Monsieur Auzout’s fancy of 80,000 +souls to be in that city, and the conjecture of knowing men that Rouen is +between the one-seventh and one-eighth part of Paris, and also that it is +by a third bigger than Bristol; by all which, we estimate, till farther +light, that Rouen hath at most but 66,000 people in it. + +Now it may be wondered why we mentioned Rouen at all, having had so +little knowledge of it; whereunto we answer, that we did not think it +just to compare London with Paris, as to shipping and foreign trade, +without adding Rouen thereunto, Rouen being to Paris as that part of +London which is below the bridge, is to what is above it. + +All which we heartily submit to the correction of the curious and candid, +in the meantime observing according to the gross numbers under-mentioned. + +London 696,000 +Paris 488,000 +Amsterdam 187,000 +Venice 134,000 +Rome 125,000 +Dublin 69,000 +Bristol 48,000 +Rouen 66,000 + +_Observations on the said Eight Cities_. + + +1. That the people of + +Paris being 488,000 +Rome 125,000 +Rouen 66,000 +do make in all but 679,000 + +or 17,000 less than the 696,000 of London alone. + +2. That the people of the two English cities and emporiums—viz., of +London, 696,000, and Bristol, 48,000—do make 744,000, or more than + +In Paris 488,000 +Amsterdam 187,090 +Rouen 66,000 +Being in all 741,000 + +3. That the same two English cities seem equivalent + +To Paris, which hath 488,000 souls. + Rouen 66,000 + Lyons 100,000 + Toulouse 90,000 +In all 744,000 + +If there be any error in these conjectures concerning these cities of +France, we hope they will be mended by those whom we hear to be now at +work upon that matter. + +4. That the King of England’s three cities, viz.: + + King’s Cities Exceed +London 696,000 Paris 488,000 +Dublin 69,000 Amsterdam 187,000 +Bristol 48,000 Venice 134,000 +In all 813,000 Being but 809,000 + +5. That of the four great emporiums, London, Amsterdam, Venice, and +Rouen, London alone is near double to the other three, viz., above 7 to +4. + +Amsterdam 187,000 +Venice 134,000 +Rouen 66,000 387,000 + × 2 + 774,000 London 696,000 + +6. That London, for aught appears, is the greatest and most considerable +city of the world, but manifestly the greatest emporium. + +When these assertions have passed the examen of the critics, we shall +make another essay, showing how to apply those truths to the honour and +profit of the King and Kingdom of England. + + + +THE FIFTH ESSAY. + + + _Concerning Holland and the rest of the United Provinces_. + +SINCE the close of this paper, it hath been objected from Holland, that +what hath been said of the number of houses and people in London is not +like to be true; for that if it were, then London would be the two-thirds +of the whole Province of Holland. To which is answered, that London is +the two-thirds of all Holland, and more, that province having not +1,044,000 inhabitants (whereof 696,000 is the two-thirds), nor above +800,000, as we have credibly and often heard. For suppose Amsterdam +hath—as we have elsewhere noted—187,000, the seven next great cities at +30,000 each, one with another, 210,000, the ten next at 15,000 each +150,000, the ten smallest at 6,000 each 60,000—in all, the twenty-eight +walled cities and towns of Holland 607,000; in the dorps and villages +193,000, which is about one head for every four acres of land; whereas in +England there is eight acres for every head, without the cities and +market-towns. + +Now, suppose London, having 116,000 families, should have seven heads in +each—the medium between MM. Auzout’s and Grant’s reckonings—the total of +the people would be 812,000; or if we reckon that there dies one out of +thirty-four—the medium between thirty and thirty-seven above +mentioned—the total of the people would be thirty-four times 23,212, +viz., 789,208, the medium between which number and the above 812,000 is +800,604, somewhat exceeding 800,000, the supposed number of Holland. + +Furthermore, I say that upon former searches into the peopling of the +world, I never found that in any country—not in China itself—there was +more than one man to every English acre of land: many territories passing +for well-peopled where there is but one man for ten such acres. I found +by measuring Holland and West Frisia (_alias_ North Holland) upon the +best maps, that it contained but as many such acres as London doth of +people, viz., about 696,000 acres. I therefore venture to pronounce +(till better informed) that the people of London are as many as those of +Holland, or at least above two-thirds of the same, which is enough to +disable the objection above mentioned; nor is there any need to strain up +London from 696,000 to 800,000, though competent reasons have been given +to that purpose, and though the author of the excellent map of London, +set forth A.D. 1682, reckoned the people thereof (as by the said map +appears) to be 1,200,000, even when he thought the houses of the same to +be but 85,000. + +The worthy person who makes this objection in the same letter also saith— + +1. That the province of Holland hath as many people as the other six +united provinces together, and as the whole kingdom of England, and +double to the city of Paris and its suburbs; that is to say, 2,000,000 +souls. 2. He says that in London and Amsterdam, and other trading +cities, there are ten heads to every family, and that in Amsterdam there +are not 22,000 families. 3. He excepteth against the register alleged +by Monsieur Auzout, which makes 23,223 houses and above 80,000 families +to be in Paris; as also against the register alleged by Petty, making +105,315 houses to be in London, with a tenth part of the same to be of +families more than houses; and probably will except against the register +of 1,163 houses to be in all England, that number giving, at six and +one-third heads to each family, about 7,000,000 people, upon all which we +remark as follows, viz.:— + +1. That if Paris doth contain but 488,000 souls, that then all Holland +containeth but the double of that number, or 976,000, wherefore London, +containing 696,000 souls, hath above two-thirds of all Holland by 46,000. + +2. If Paris containeth half as many people as there are in all England, +it must contain 3,500,000 souls, or above seven times 488,000; and +because there do not die 20,000 per annum out of Paris, there must die +but one out of 175; whereas Monsieur Auzout thinks that there dies one +out of 25, and there must live 149 heads in every house of Paris +mentioned in the register, but there must be scarce two heads in every +house of England, all which we think fit to be reconsidered. + +I must, as an Englishman, take notice of one point more, which is, that +these assertions do reflect upon the empire of England, for that it is +said that England hath but 2,000,000 inhabitants, and it might as well +have been added, that Scotland and Ireland, with the Islands of Man, +Jersey, and Guernsey, have but two-fifths of the same number, or 800,000 +more, or that all the King of England’s subjects in Europe are but +2,800,000 souls, whereas he saith that the subjects of the seven united +provinces are 4,000,000. To which we answer that the subjects of the +said seven provinces are, by this objector’s own showing, but the +quadruple of Paris, or 1,932,000 souls, Paris containing but 488,000, as +afore hath been proved, and we do here affirm that England hath 7,000,000 +people, and that Scotland, Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and +Guernsey, hath two-fifths of the said number, or 2,800,000 more, in all +9,800,000; whereas by the objector’s doctrine, if the seven provinces +have 1,932,000 people, the King of England’s territories should have but +seven-tenths of the same number, viz., 1,351,000, whereas we say +9,800,000, as aforesaid, which difference is so gross as that it deserves +to be thus reflected upon. + +To conclude, we expect from the concerned critics of the world that they +would prove— + +1. That Holland, and West Frisia, and the twenty-eight towns and cities +thereof, hath more people than London alone. + +2. That any three of the best cities of France, any two of all +Christendom, or any one of the world, hath the same, or better housing, +and more foreign trade than London, even in the year that King James the +Second came to the empire thereof. + + + + +OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. + + +_Founded upon the Calculations of Gregory King_, _Lancaster Herald_, _and +forming part of_ “_An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a People +gainers in the Balance of Trade_.” _Published in 1699_. + +THE writer of these papers has seen the natural and political +observations and conclusions upon the state and condition of England by +Gregory King, Esq., Lancaster Herald, in manuscript. The calculations +therein contained are very accurate, and more perhaps to be relied upon +than anything that has been ever done of the like kind. This skilful and +laborious gentleman has taken the right course to form his several +schemes about the numbers of the people, for besides many different ways +of working, he has very carefully inspected the poll-books, and the +distinctions made by those acts, and the produce in many of the +respective polls, going everywhere by reasonable and discreet mediums: +besides which pains, he has made observations of the very facts in +particular towns and places, from which he has been able to judge and +conclude more safely of others, so that he seems to have looked further +into this mystery than any other person. + +With his permission, we shall offer to the public such of his +computations as may be of use, and enlighten in the matter before us. + +He lays down that if the first peopling of England was by a colony or +colonies, consisting of a number between 100 and 1,000 people (which +seems probable), such colony or colonies might be brought over between +the year of the world 2400 and 2600, viz., about 800 or 900 years after +the Flood, and 1,400 or 1,500 years before the birth of Christ, at which +time the world might have about 1,000,000 families, and 4,000,000 or +5,000,000 people. + +From which hypothesis it will follow by an orderly series of increase— + +That when the Romans invaded England fifty-three years before Christ’s +time, the kingdom might have about 360,000 people, and at Christ’s birth +about 400,000. + +That at the Norman Conquest, A.D. 1066, the kingdom might contain +somewhat above 2,000,000. + +That A.D. 1260, or about 200 years after the Norman Conquest, it might +contain about 2,750,000 people, or half the present number: so that the +people of England may have doubled in about 435 years last past. + +That in all probability the next doubling will be in about 600 years to +come, viz., by the year 2300, at which time it may have about 11,000,000 +people, and the kingdom containing about 39,000,000 of acres, there will +be then about three acres and a half per head. + +That the increase of the kingdom for every hundred years of the last +preceding term of doubling, and the subsequent term of doubling, may have +been and in all probability may be, according to the following scheme:— + + Anno Domini. Number of people. Increase every hundred + years. + 1300 2,800,000 + 1400 3,300,000 440,000. + 1500 3,840,000 540,000. + 1600 4,620,000 780,000. + 1700 5,500,000 880,000. + 1800 6,420,000 920,000. + 1900 7,350,000 930,000. + 2000 8,280,000 930,000. + 2100 9,205,000 925,000. + 2200 10,115,000 910,000. + 2300 11,000,000 885,000. + +Whereby it may appear that the increase of the kingdom being 880,000 +people in the last hundred years, and 920,000 in the next succeeding +hundred years, the annual increase at this time may be about 9,000 souls +per annum. + +But whereas the yearly births of the kingdom are 190,000 souls. +about 1 in 28.95, or +And the yearly burials 1 in 32.35 or 170,000 souls. +Whereby the yearly increase would be 20,000 souls. +It is to be noted— Per ann. +1. That the allowance for 4,000 + plagues and great mortalities + may come to at a medium +2. Foreign or civil wars at a 3,500 + medium +3. The sea constantly employing 2,500 + about 40,000, may precipitate + the death of about +4. The plantations (over and 1,000 + above the accession of + foreigners) may carry away + 11,000 per + annum. +Whereby the net annual increase may be but 9,000 souls. + +That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the annual increase of the +kingdom by procreation, were it not for the before-mentioned abatements. + +The country increases annually by procreation 20,000 souls. +The cities and towns, exclusive of London, by 2,000 souls. +procreation +But London and the bills of mortality decrease 2,000 souls. +annually + +So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls per annum to keep it from +decreasing, besides a further supply of about 3,000 per annum for its +increase at this time. In all 5,000, or above a half of the kingdom’s +net increase. + +Mr. King further observes that by the assessments on marriages, births, +and burials, and the collectors’ returns thereupon, and by the parish +registers, it appears that the proportions of marriages, births, and +burials are according to the following scheme + + + +_Vide_ Scheme A. + + +Whence it may be observed that in 10,000 coexisting persons there are 71 +or 72 marriages in the country, producing 343 children; 78 marriages in +towns producing 351 children; 94 marriages in London, producing 376 +children. + +Whereby it follows— + +1. That though each marriage in London produces fewer people than in the +country, yet London in general having a greater proportion of breeders, +is more prolific than the other great towns, and the great towns are more +prolific than the country. + +2. That if the people of London of all ages were as long-lived as those +in the country, London would increase in people much faster _pro rata_ +than the country. + +3. That the reasons why each marriage in London produces fewer children +than the country marriages seem to be— + + (1) From the more frequent fornications and adulteries. + + (2) From a greater luxury and intemperance. + + (3) From a greater intentness on business. + + (4) From the unhealthfulness of the coal smoke. + + (5) From a greater inequality of age between the husbands and wives. + + (6) From the husbands and wives not living so long as in the country. + +He further observes, accounting the people to be 5,500,000, that the said +five millions and a half (including the transitory people and vagrants) +appear by the assessments on marriages, births, and burials, to bear the +following proportions in relation to males and females, and other +distinctions of the people, viz.:— + + + +SCHEME A. + + People. Annual Producing + Marriages. children + In all. each + 530,000 London and 1 in 106 5,000 4.0 + bills of + mortality + 870,000 The cities 1 in 128 6,800 4.5 + and market + towns + 4,100,000 The 1 in 141 29,200 4.8 + villages + and hamlets + 5,500,000 1 in 134 41,000 4.64 + + * * * * * + + Annual Births. Annual Burials. + In all. In all. +London and 1 in 26½ 20,000 1 in 24.1 22,000 +bills of +mortality +The cities 1 in 28½ 30,600 1 in 30.4 28,600 +and market +towns +The 1 in 29.4 29,200 1 in 34.4 119,400 +villages +and hamlets + 1 in 28.95 190,000 1 in 32.35 170,000 + +_Vide_ Scheme B. + + +So that the number of communicants is in all 3,260,000 souls; and the +number of fighting men between sixteen and sixty is 1,308,000. + + + +SCHEME B. + + Males. Males. Females. Both. + Females. +In London 10 to 13 230,000 300,000 530,000 +and bills +of +mortality +In the 8 to 9 410,000 460,000 870,000 +other +cities and +market- +towns +In the 100 to 99 2,060,000 2,040,000 4,100,000 +villages +and hamlets + 27 to 28 2,700,000 2,800,000 5,500,000 + +_That as to other distinctions they appear by the said assessments to +bear these proportions_. + + People. Males. Females. +Husbands and 34½% 1,900,000 950,000 950,000 +wives at above +Widowers at 1½% 90,000 90,000 +above +Widows at about 4½% 240,000 240,000 +Children at 45% 2,500,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 +above +Servants at 10½% 560,000 260,000 300,000 +about +Sojourners and 4% 210,000 100,000 110,000 +single persons + 100% 5,500,000 2,700,000 2,800,000 + +_And that the different proportions in each of the said articles between +London_, _the great towns_, _and the villages_, _may the better appear_, +_he has formed the following scheme_:— + + London and Bills of The other Cities and The Villages and + Mortality. Souls. great Towns. Souls. Hamlets. Souls. +Husbands and Wives 37% 196,100 36% 313,200 34% 1,394,000 +Widowers 2% 10,600 2% 17,400 1½% 61,500 +Widows 7% 37,100 6% 52,200 4½% 184,500 +Children 33% 174,900 40% 348,000 47% 1,927,000 +Servants 13% 68,900 11% 95,700 10% 410,000 +Sojourners 8% 42,400 5% 43,500 3% 123,000 + 100% 530,000 100% 870,000 100% 4,100,000 + +SCHEME B (_continued_). + + +_He further observes_, _supposing the people to be 5,500,000_, _that the +yearly births of the Kingdom may be 190,000_, _and that the several ages +of the people may be as follows_: + + In all. Males. Females. +Those under 1 years old 170,000 88,500 81,500 +Those under 5 years old 820,000 413,300 406,700 +Those under 10 years old 1,520,000 762,900 757,100 +Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 1,578,000 1,682,000 +Those above 21 years old 2,700,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 +Those above 25 years old 2,400,000 1,152,000 1,248,000 +Those above 60 years old 600,000 270,000 330,000 +Those under 16 years old 2,240,000 +Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 + Total of the people 5,500,000 + +That the bachelors are about 28 per cent. of the whole, whereof those +under twenty-five years are 25½ per cent., and those above twenty-five +years are 2½ per cent. + +That the maidens are about 28½ per cent. of the whole. + +Whereof those under 25 years are 26½ per cent. + +And those above 25 years are 2 per cent. + +That the males and females in the kingdom in general are aged, one with +another, 27 years and a half. + +That in the kingdom in general there is near as many people living under +20 years of age as there is above 20, whereof half of the males are under +19, and one half of the females are under 21 years. + +That the ages of the people, according to their several distinctions, are +as follows, viz.:— + + + +_Vide_ Scheme C. + + +Having thus stated the numbers of the people, he gives a scheme of the +income and expense of the several families of England, calculated for the +year 1688. + + + +SCHEME C. + + At a Medium +The husbands 43 years 17¼ per cent., 742 years. +are aged apiece, which, makes + at +The wives 40 17¼ 690 +The widowers 56 1½ 84 +The widows 60 4½ 270 +The children 12 45 540 +The servants 27 10½ 284 +The sojourners 35 4 140 +At a medium 27½ 100 2,750 + +_Vide_ Scheme D. + + +Mr. King’s modesty has been so far overruled as to suffer us to +communicate these his excellent computations, which we can the more +safely commend, having examined them very carefully, tried them by some +little operations of our own upon the same subject, and compared them +with the schemes of other persons, who take pleasure in the like studies. + +What he says concerning the number of the people to be 5,500,000 is no +positive assertion, nor shall we pretend anywhere to determine in that +matter; what he lays down is by way of hypothesis, that supposing the +inhabitants of England to have been, A.D. 1300, 2,860,000 heads, by the +orderly series of increase allowed of by all writers they may probably be +about A.D. 1700, 5,500,000 heads; but if they were A.D. 1300 either less +or more, the case must proportionably alter; for as to his allowances for +plagues, great mortalities, civil wars, the sea, and the plantations, +they seem very reasonable, and not well to be controverted. + +Upon these schemes of Mr. King we shall make several remarks, though the +text deserves much a better comment. + + + +SCHEME D.—A SCHEME OF THE INCOME AND EXPENSE OF THE SEVERAL FAMILIES OF +ENGLAND, CALCULATED FOR THE YEAR 1688. {148} + + Number of Families. RANKS, DEGREES, Heads per Family. + TITLES, AND + QUALIFICATIONS. + 160 Temporal Lords 40 + 26 Spiritual Lords 20 + 800 Baronets 16 + 600 Knights 13 + 3,000 Esquires 10 + 12,000 Gentlemen 8 + 5,000 Persons in greater 8 + offices and places + 5,000 Persons in lesser 6 + offices and places + 2,000 Eminent merchants and 8 + traders by sea + 8,000 Lesser merchants and 6 + traders by sea + 10,000 Persons in the law 7 + 2,000 Eminent clergymen 6 + 8,000 Lesser clergymen 5 + 40,000 Freeholders of the 7 + better sort + 120,000 Freeholders of the 5½ + lesser sort + 150,000 Farmers 5 + 15,000 Persons in liberal 5 + arts and sciences + 50,000 Shopkeepers and 4½ + tradesmen + 60,000 Artisans and 4 + handicrafts + 5,000 Naval officers 4 + 4,000 Military officers 4 + 500,586 5⅓ + 50,000 Common seamen 3 + 364,000 Labouring people and 3½ + out-servants + 400,000 Cottagers and paupers 3¼ + 35,000 Common soldiers 2 + 849,000 Vagrants, as gipsies, 3¼ + thieves, beggars, &c. + 500,586 Increasing the wealth 5⅓ + of the kingdom + 849,000 Decreasing the wealth 3¼ + of the kingdom + 1,349,586 Net totals 4 1/13 + + * * * * * + + Number of Persons. Yearly Income per. Family. Yearly Income in Yearly Income per. Hd. Yearly Expense per Hd. Yearly Yearly + general. Increase per. Incr. in + Hd. General. + £ s. £ £ s. £ s. d. £ s. d. £ + 6,400 3,200 0 512,000 80 0 70 0 0 10 0 0 64,000 + 520 1,300 0 33,800 65 0 45 0 0 20 0 0 10,400 + 12,800 880 0 704,000 55 0 49 0 0 6 0 0 76,800 + 7,800 650 0 390,000 50 0 45 0 0 5 0 0 39,000 + 30,000 450 0 1,200,000 45 0 41 0 0 4 0 0 120,000 + 96,000 280 0 2,880,000 35 0 32 0 0 3 0 0 288,000 + 40,000 240 0 1,200,000 30 0 26 0 0 4 0 0 160,000 + 30,000 120 0 600,000 20 0 17 0 0 3 0 0 90,000 + 16,000 400 0 800,000 50 0 37 0 0 13 0 0 208,000 + 48,000 198 0 1,600,000 33 0 27 0 0 6 0 0 288,000 + 70,000 154 0 1,540,000 22 0 18 0 0 4 0 0 280,000 + 12,000 72 0 144,000 12 0 10 0 0 2 0 0 24,000 + 40,000 50 0 400,000 10 0 9 4 0 0 16 0 32,000 + 280,000 91 0 3,640,000 13 0 11 15 0 1 5 0 350,000 + 660,000 55 0 6,600,000 10 0 9 10 0 0 10 0 330,000 + 750,000 42 10 6,375,000 8 10 8 5 0 0 5 0 187,500 + 75,000 60 0 900,000 12 0 11 0 0 1 0 0 75,000 + 225,000 45 0 2,250,000 10 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 225,000 + 240,000 38 0 2,280,000 9 10 9 0 0 0 10 0 120,000 + 20,000 80 0 400,000 20 0 18 0 0 2 0 0 40,000 + 16,000 60 0 240,000 15 0 14 0 0 1 0 0 16,000 + 2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 11 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700 + Decrease. Decrease. + 150,000 20 0 1,000,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 75,000 + 1,275,000 15 0 5,460,000 4 10 4 12 0 0 2 0 127,500 + 1,300,000 6 10 2,000,000 2 0 2 5 0 0 5 0 325,000 + 70,000 14 0 490,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 35,000 + 2,795,000 10 10 8,950,000 3 5 3 9 0 0 4 0 562,500 + 30,000 60,000 2 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 60,000 +So the General Account is + 2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 11 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700 + 2,825,000 10 10 9,010,000 3 3 3 7 6 0 4 6 622,500 + 5,500,520 32 5 43,491,800 7 18 7 9 3 0 8 9 2,401,200 + +The people being the first matter of power and wealth, by whose labour +and industry a nation must be gainers in the balance, their increase or +decrease must be carefully observed by any government that designs to +thrive; that is, their increase must be promoted by good conduct and +wholesome laws, and if they have been decreased by war, or any other +accident, the breach is to be made up as soon as possible, for it is a +maim in the body politic affecting all its parts. + +Almost all countries in the world have been more or less populous, as +liberty and property have been there well or ill secured. The first +constitution of Rome was no ill-founded government, a kingly power +limited by laws; and the people increased so fast, that, from a small +beginning, in the reign of their sixth king were they able to send out an +army of 80,000 men. And in the time of the commonwealth, in that +invasion which the Gauls made upon Italy, not long before Hannibal came +thither, they were grown so numerous, as that their troops consisted of +700,000 foot and 70,000 horse; it is true their allies were comprehended +in this number, but the ordinary people fit to bear arms being mustered +in Rome and Campania, amounted to 250,000 foot and 23,000 horse. + +Nothing, therefore, can more contribute to the rendering England populous +and strong than to have liberty upon a right footing, and our legal +constitution firmly preserved. A nation may be as well called free under +a limited kingship as in a commonwealth, and it is to this good form of +our government that we partly owe that doubling of the people which has +probably happened here in the 435 years last past. And if the ambition +of some, and the mercenary temper of others, should bring us at any time +to alter our constitution, and to give up our ancient rights, we shall +find our numbers diminish visibly and fast. For liberty encourages +procreation, and not only keeps our own inhabitants among us, but invites +strangers to come and live under the shelter of our laws. + +The Romans, indeed, made use of an adventitious help to enlarge their +city, which was by incorporating foreign cities and nations into their +commonwealth; but this way is not without its mischiefs. For the +strangers in Rome by degrees had grown so numerous, and to have so great +a vote in the councils, that the whole Government began to totter, and +decline from its old to its new inhabitants, which Fabius the censor +observing, he applied a remedy in time by reducing all the new citizens +into four tribes, that being contracted into so narrow a space, they +might not have so malignant an influence upon the city. + +An Act of general naturalisation would likewise probably increase our +numbers very fast, and repair what loss we may have suffered in our +people by the late war. It is a matter that has been very warmly +contended for by many good patriots; but peradventure it carries also its +danger with it, which perhaps would have the less influence by this +expedient, namely, if an Act of Parliament were made, that no heads of +families hereafter to be naturalised for the first generation, should +have votes in any of our elections. But as the case stands, it seems +against the nature of right government that strangers (who may be spies, +and who may have an interest opposite to that of England, and who at best +ever join in one link of obsequiousness to the Ministers) should be +suffered to intermeddle in that important business of sending members to +Parliament. From their sons indeed there is less to fear, who by birth +and nature may come to have the same interest and inclinations as the +natives. + +And though the expedient of Fabius Maximus, to contract the strangers +into four tribes, might be reasonable where the affairs of a whole empire +were transacted by magistrates chosen in one city, yet the same policy +may not hold good in England; foreigners cannot influence elections here +by being dispersed about in the several counties of the kingdom, where +they can never come to have any considerable strength. But some time or +other they may endanger the government by being suffered to remain, such +vast numbers of them here in London where they inhabit altogether, at +least 30,000 persons in two quarters of the town, without intermarrying +with the English, or learning our language, by which means for several +years to come they are in a way still to continue foreigners, and perhaps +may have a foreign interest and foreign inclinations; to permit this +cannot be advisable or safe. It may therefore be proper to limit any new +Acts of naturalisation with such restrictions as may make the accession +of strangers not dangerous to the public. + +An accession of strangers, well regulated, may add to our strength and +numbers; but then it must be composed of labouring men, artificers, +merchants, and other rich men, and not of foreign soldiers, since such +fright and drive away from a nation more people than their troops can +well consist of: for if it has been ever seen that men abound most where +there is most freedom (China excepted, whose climate excels all others, +and where the exercise of the tyranny is mild and easy) it must follow +that people will in time desert those countries whose best flower is +their liberties, if those liberties are thought precarious or in danger. +That foreign soldiers are dangerous to liberty, we may produce examples +from all countries and all ages; but we shall instance only one, because +it is eminent above all the rest. + +The Carthaginians, in their wars, did very much use mercenary and foreign +troops; and when the peace was made between them and the Romans, after a +long dispute for the dominion of Sicily, they brought their army home to +be paid and disbanded, which Gesco, their General, had the charge of +embarking, who did order all his part with great dexterity and wisdom. +But the State of Carthage wanting money to clear arrears, and satisfy the +troops, was forced to keep them up longer than was designed. The army +consisted of Gauls, Ligurians, Baleareans, and Greeks. At first they +were insolent in their quarters in Carthage, and were prevailed upon to +remove to Sicca, where they were to remain and expect their pay. There +they grew presently corrupted with ease and pleasure, and fell into +mutinies and disorder, and to making extravagant demands of pay and +gratuities; and in a rage, with their arms in their hands, they marched +20,000 of them towards Carthage, encamping within fifteen miles of the +city; and chose Spendius and Matho, two profligate wretches, for their +leaders, and imprisoned Gesco, who was deputed to them from the +commonwealth. Afterwards they caused almost all the Africans, their +tributaries, to revolt; they grew in a short time to be 70,000 strong; +they fought several battles with Hanno and Hamilcar Barcas. During these +transactions, the mercenaries that were in garrison in Sardinia mutinied +likewise, murdering their commander and all the Carthaginians; while +Spendius and Matho, to render their accomplices more desperate, put Gesco +to a cruel death, presuming afterwards to lay siege to Carthage itself. +They met with a shock indeed at Prion, where 40,000 of them were +slaughtered; but soon after this battle, in another they took one of the +Carthaginian generals prisoner, whom they fixed to a cross, crucifying +thirty of the principal senators round about him. Spendius and Matho +were at last taken, the one crucified and the other tormented to death: +but the war lasted three years and near four months with excessive +cruelty; in which the State of Carthage lost several battles, and was +often brought within a hair’s-breadth of utter ruin. + +If so great a commonwealth as Carthage, though assisted at that time by +Hiero, King of Syracuse, and by the Romans, ran the hazard of losing +their empire, city, and liberties, by the insurrection of a handful of +mercenaries, whose first strength was but 20,000 men; it should be a +warning to all free nations how they suffer armies so composed to be +among them, and it should frighten a wise State from desiring such an +increase of people as may be had by the bringing over foreign soldiers. + +Indeed, all armies whatsoever, if they are over-large, tend to the +dispeopling of a country, of which our neighbour nation is a sufficient +proof, where in one of the best climates in Europe men are wanting to +till the ground. For children do not proceed from the intemperate +pleasures taken loosely and at random, but from a regular way of living, +where the father of the family desires to rear up and provide for the +offspring he shall beget. + +Securing the liberties of a nation may be laid down as a fundamental for +increasing the numbers of its people; but there are other polities +thereunto conducing which no wise State has ever neglected. + +No race of men did multiply so fast as the Jews, which may be attributed +chiefly to the wisdom of Moses their Lawgiver, in contriving to promote +the state of marriage. + +The Romans had the same care, paying no respect to a man childless by his +own fault, and giving great immunities and privileges, both in the city +and provinces, to those who had such and such a number of children. +Encouragements of the like kind are also given in France to such as +enrich the commonwealth by a large issue. + +But we in England have taken another course, laying a fine upon the +marriage bed, which seems small to those who only contemplate the pomp +and wealth round about them, and in their view; but they who look into +all the different ranks of men are well satisfied that this duty on +marriages and births is a very grievous burden upon the poorer sort, +whose numbers compose the strength and wealth of any nation. This tax +was introduced by the necessity of affairs. It is difficult to say what +may be the event of a new thing; but if we are to take measures from past +wisdom, which exempted prolific families from public duties, we should +not lay impositions upon those who find it hard enough to maintain +themselves. If this tax be such a weight upon the poor as to discourage +marriage and hinder propagation, which seems the truth, no doubt it ought +to be abolished; and at a convenient time we ought to change it for some +other duty, if there were only this single reason, that it is so directly +opposite to the polity of all ages and all countries. + +In order to have hands to carry on labour and manufactures, which must +make us gainers in the balance of trade, we ought not to deter, but +rather invite men to marry, which is to be done by privileges and +exemptions for such a number of children, and by denying certain offices +of trust and dignities to all unmarried persons; and where it is once +made a fashion among those of the better sort, it will quickly obtain +with the lower degree. + +Mr. King, in his scheme (for which he has as authentic grounds as perhaps +the matter is capable of) lays down that the annual marriages of England +are about 41,000, which is one marriage out of every 134 persons. Upon +which, we observe, that this is not a due proportion, considering how few +of our adult males (in comparison with other countries) perish by war or +any other accident; from whence may be inferred that our polity is some +way or other defective, or the marriages would bear a nearer proportion +with the gross number of our people; for which defect, if a remedy can be +found, there will be so much more strength added to the kingdom. + +From the books of assessment on births, marriages, &c., by the nearest +view he can make, he divides the 5,500,000 people into 2,700,000 males +and 2,800,000 females; from whence (considering the females exceed the +males in number, and considering that the men marry later than women, and +that many of the males are of necessity absent in the wars, at sea, and +upon other business) it follows that a large proportion of the females +remain unmarried, though at an adult age, which is a dead loss to the +nation, every birth being as so much certain treasure, upon which account +such laws must be for the public good, as induce all men to marry whose +circumstances permit it. + +From his division of the people it may be likewise observed, that the +near proportion there is between the males and females (which is said to +hold also in other places) is an argument (and the strongest that can be +produced) against polygamy, and the increase of mankind which some think +might be from thence expected; for if Nature had intended to one man a +plurality of wives, she would have ordered a great many more female +births than male, her designments being always right and wise. + +The securing the parish for bastard children is become so small a +punishment and so easily compounded, that it very much hinders marriage. +The Dutch compel men of all ranks to marry the woman whom they have got +with child, and perhaps it would tend to the further peopling of England +if the common people here, under such a certain degree, were condemned by +some new law to suffer the same penalty. + +A country that makes provision to increase in inhabitants, whose +situation is good, and whose people have a genius adapted to trade, will +never fail to be gainers in the balance, provided the labour and industry +of their people be well managed and carefully directed. + +The more any man contemplates these matters the more he will come to be +of opinion, that England is capable of being rendered one of the +strongest nations, and the richest spot of ground in Europe. + +It is not extent of territory that makes a country powerful, but numbers +of men well employed, convenient ports, a good navy, and a soil producing +all sort of commodities. The materials for all this we have, and so +improvable, that if we did but second the gifts of Nature with our own +industry we should soon arrive to a pitch of greatness that would put us +at least upon an equal footing with any of our neighbours. + +If we had the complement of men our land can maintain and nourish; if we +had as much trade as our stock and knowledge in sea affairs is capable of +embracing; if we had such a naval strength as a trade so extended would +easily produce; and, if we had those stores and that wealth which is the +certain result of a large and well-governed traffic, what human strength +could hurt or invade us? On the contrary, should we not be in a posture +not only to resist but to give the law to others? + +Our neighbouring commonwealth has not in territory above 8,000,000 acres, +and perhaps not much above 2,200,000 people, and yet what a figure have +they made in Europe for these last 100 years? What wars have they +maintained? What forces have they resisted? and to what a height of +power are they now come, and all by good order and wise government? + +They are liable to frequent invasions; they labour under the +inconvenience and danger of bad ports; they consume immense sums every +year to defend their land against the sea; all which difficulties they +have subdued by an unwearied industry. + +We are fenced by nature against foreign enemies, our ports are safe, we +fear no irruptions of the sea, our land territory at home is at least +39,000,000 acres. We have in all likelihood not less than 5,500,000 +people. What a nation might we then become, if all these advantages were +thoroughly improved, and if a right application were made of all this +strength and of these numbers? + +They who apprehend the immoderate growth of any prince or State may, +perhaps, succeed by beginning first, and by attempting to pull down such +a dangerous neighbour, but very often their good designs are +disappointed. In all appearance they proceed more safely, who, under +such a fear, make themselves strong and powerful at home. And this was +the course which Philip, King of Macedon, the father of Perseus, took, +when he thought to be invaded by the Romans. + +The greatness of Rome gave Carthage very anxious thoughts, and it rather +seems that they entered into the second Punic War more for fear the +Romans should have the universal empire, than out of any ambition to lord +it themselves over the whole world. Their design was virtuous, and +peradventure wise to endeavour at some early interruption to a rival that +grew so fast. However, we see they miscarried, though their armies were +led by Hannibal. But fortune which had determined the dominion of the +earth for Rome, did, perhaps, lead them into the fatal counsel of passing +the Eber contrary to the articles of peace concluded with Asdrubal, and +of attacking Saguntum before they had sufficiently recovered of the +wounds they had suffered in the wars about Sicily, Sardinia, and with +their own rebels. If the high courage of Hannibal had not driven the +commonwealth into a new war while it was yet faint and weak, and if they +had been suffered to pursue their victories in Spain, and to get firm +footing in that rich, warlike, and then populous country, very probably +in a few years they might have been a more equal match for the Roman +people. It is true, if the Romans had endeavoured, at the conquest of +Spain, and if they had disturbed the Carthaginians in that country, the +war must have been unavoidable, because it was evident in that age, and +will be apparent in the times we live in, that whatever foreign power, +already grown great, can add to its dominion the possession of Spain, +will stand fair for universal empire. + +But unless some such cogent reason of state, as is here instanced, +intervene, in all appearance the best way for a nation that apprehends +the growing power of any neighbour is to fortify itself within; we do not +mean by land armies, which rather debilitate than strengthen a country, +but by potent navies, by thrift in the public treasure, care of the +people’s trade, and all the other honest and useful arts of peace. + +By such an improvement of our native strength, agreeable to the laws and +to the temper of a free nation, England without doubt may be brought to +so good a posture and condition of defending itself, as not to apprehend +any neighbour jealous of its strength or envious of its greatness. + +And to this end we open these schemes, that a wise Government under which +we live, not having any designs to become arbitrary, may see what +materials they have to work upon, and how far our native wealth is able +to second their good intentions of preserving us a rich and a free +people. + +Having said something of the number of our inhabitants, we shall proceed +to discourse of their different degrees and ranks, and to examine who are +a burden and who are a profit to the public, for by how much every part +and member of the commonwealth can be made useful to the whole, by so +much a nation will be more and more a gainer in this balance of trade +which we are to treat of. + +Mr. King, from the assessments on births and marriages, and from the +polls, has formed the scheme here inserted, of the ranks, degrees, titles +and qualifications of the people. He has done it so judiciously, and +upon such grounds, that is well worth the careful perusal of any curious +person, from thence we shall make some observations in order to put our +present matter in a clearer light. + +First, this scheme detects their error, who in the calculation they frame +contemplate nothing but the wealth and plenty they see in rich cities and +great towns, and from thence make a judgment of the kingdom’s remaining +part, and from this view conclude that taxes and payments to the public +do mostly arise from the gentry and better sort, by which measures they +neither contrive their imposition aright, nor are they able to give a +true estimate what it shall produce; but when we have divided the +inhabitants of England into their proper classes, it will appear that the +nobility and gentry are but a small part of the whole body of the people. + +Believing that taxes fell chiefly upon the better sort, they care not +what they lay, as thinking they will not be felt; but when they come to +be levied, they either fall short, and so run the public into an immense +debt, or they light so heavily upon the poorer sort, as to occasion +insufferable clamours; and they, whose proper business it was to contrive +these matters better have been so unskilful, that the legislative power +has been more than once compelled for the peoples’ ease to give new +funds, instead of others that had been ill projected. + +This may be generally said, that all duties whatsoever upon the +consumption of a large produce, fall with the greatest weight upon the +common sort, so that such as think in new duties that they chiefly tax +the rich will find themselves quite mistaken; for either their fund must +yield little, or it must arise from the whole body of the people, of +which the richer sort are but a small proportion. + +And though war, and national debts and engagements, might heretofore very +rationally plead for excises upon our home consumption, yet now there is +a peace, it is the concern of every man that loves his country to proceed +warily in laying new ones, and to get off those which are already laid as +fast as ever he can. High customs and high excises both together are +incompatible, either of them alone are to be endured, but to have them +co-exist is suffered in no well-governed nation. If materials of foreign +growth were at an easy rate, a high price might be the better borne in +things of our own product, but to have both dear at once (and by reason +of the duties laid upon them) is ruinous to the inferior rank of men, and +this ought to weigh more with us, when we consider that even of the +common people a subdivision is to be made, of which one part subsist from +their own havings, arts, labour, and industry; and the other part subsist +a little from their own labour, but chiefly from the help and charity of +the rank that is above them. For according to Mr. King’s scheme— + +The nobility and gentry, with their families and retainers, the persons +in offices, merchants, persons in the law, the clergy, freeholders, +farmers, persons in sciences and liberal arts, shopkeepers, and +tradesmen, handicrafts, men, naval officers, with the families and +dependants upon all these altogether, make up the number of 2,675,520 +heads. + +The common seamen, common soldiers, labouring people, and out-servants, +cottagers, paupers, and their families, with the vagrants, make up the +number of 2,825,000 heads. + +In all 5,500,520 heads. + +So that here seems a majority of the people, whose chief dependence and +subsistence is from the other part, which majority is much greater, in +respect of the number of families, because 500,000 families contribute to +the support of 850,000 families. In contemplation of which, great care +should be taken not to lay new duties upon the home consumption, unless +upon the extremest necessities of the State; for though such impositions +cannot be said to fall directly upon the lower rank, whose poverty +hinders them from consuming such materials (though there are few excises +to which the meanest person does not pay something), yet indirectly, and +by unavoidable consequences, they are rather more affected by high duties +upon our home-consumption than the wealthier degree of people, and so we +shall find the case to be, if we look carefully into all the distinct +ranks of men there enumerated. + +First, as to the nobility and gentry, they must of necessity retrench +their families and expenses, if excessive impositions are laid upon all +sorts of materials for consumption, from whence follows, that the degree +below them of merchants, shopkeepers, tradesmen, and artisans, must want +employment. + +Secondly, as to the manufactures, high excises in time of peace are +utterly destructive to that principal part of England’s wealth; for if +malt, coals, salt, leather, and other things, bear a great price, the +wages of servants, workmen, and artificers, will consequently rise, for +the income must bear some proportion with the expense; and if such as set +the poor to work find wages for labour or manufacture advance upon them, +they must rise in the price of their commodity, or they cannot live, all +which would signify little, if nothing but our own dealings among one +another were thereby affected; but it has a consequence far more +pernicious in relation to our foreign trade, for it is the exportation of +our own product that must make England rich; to be gainers in the balance +of trade, we must carry out of our own product what will purchase the +things of foreign growth that are needful for our own consumption, with +some overplus either in bullion or goods to be sold in other countries, +which overplus is the profit a nation makes by trade, and it is more or +less according to the natural frugality of the people that export, or as +from the low price of labour and manufacture they can afford the +commodity cheap, and at a rate not to be undersold in foreign markets. +The Dutch, whose labour and manufactures are dear by reason of home +excises, can notwithstanding sell cheap abroad, because this disadvantage +they labour under is balanced by the parsimonious temper of their people; +but in England, where this frugality is hardly to be introduced, if the +duties upon our home consumption are so large as to raise considerably +the price of labour and manufacture, all our commodities for exportation +must by degrees so advance in the prime value, that they cannot be sold +at a rate which will give them vent in foreign markets, and we must be +everywhere undersold by our wiser neighbours. But the consequence of +such duties in times of peace will fall most heavily upon our woollen +manufactures, of which most have more value from the workmanship than the +material; and if the price of this workmanship be enhanced, it will in a +short course of time put a necessity upon those we deal with of setting +up manufactures of their own, such as they can, or of buying goods of the +like kind and use from nations that can afford them cheaper. And in this +point we are to consider, that the bulk of our woollen exports does not +consist in draperies made of the fine wool, peculiar to our soil, but is +composed of coarse broad cloths, such as Yorkshire cloths, kerseys, which +make a great part of our exports, and may be, and are made of a coarser +wool, which is to be had in other countries. So that we are not singly +to value ourselves upon the material, but also upon the manufacture, +which we should make as easy as we can, by not laying over-heavy burdens +upon the manufacturer. And our woollen goods being two-thirds of our +foreign exports, it ought to be the chief object of the public care, if +we expect to be gainers in the balance of trade, which is what we hunt +after in these inquiries. + +Thirdly, as to the lower rank of all, which we compute at 2,825,000 +heads, a majority of the whole people, their principal subsistence is +upon the degrees above them, and if those are rendered uneasy these must +share in the calamity, but even of this inferior sort no small proportion +contribute largely to excises, as labourers and out-servants, which +likewise affect the common seamen, who must thereupon raise their wages +or they will not have wherewithal to keep their families left at home, +and the high wages of seamen is another burden upon our foreign traffic. +As to the cottagers, who are about a fifth part of the whole people, some +duties reach even them, as those upon malt, leather, and salt, but not +much because of their slender consumption, but if the gentry, upon whose +woods and gleanings they live, and who employ them in day labour, and if +the manufacturers, for whom they card and spin, are overburdened with +duties, they cannot afford to give them so much for their labour and +handiwork, nor to yield them those other reliefs which are their +principal subsistence, for want of which these miserable wretches must +perish with cold and hunger. + +Thus we see excises either directly or indirectly fall upon the whole +body of the people, but we do not take notice of these matters as +receding from our former opinion. On the contrary, we still think them +the most easy and equal way of taxing a nation, and perhaps it is +demonstrable that if we had fallen into this method at the beginning of +the war of raising the year’s expense within the year by excises, England +had not been now indebted so many millions, but what was advisable under +such a necessity and danger is not to be pursued in times of peace, +especially in a country depending so much upon trade and manufactures. + +Our study now ought to be how those debts may be speedily cleared off, +for which these new revenues are the funds, that trade may again move +freely as it did heretofore, without such a heavy clog; but this point we +shall more amply handle when we come to speak of our payments to the +public. + +Mr. King divides the whole body of the people into two principal classes, +viz.:— + +Increasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,675,520 heads. +Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,825,000 heads. + +By which he means that the first class of the people from land, arts, and +industry maintain themselves, and add every year something to the +nation’s general stock, and besides this, out of their superfluity, +contribute every year so much to the maintenance of others. + +That of the second class some partly maintain themselves by labour (as +the heads of the cottage families), but that the rest, as most of the +wives and children of these, sick and impotent people, idle beggars and +vagrants, are nourished at the cost of others, and are a yearly burden to +the public, consuming annually so much as would be otherwise added to the +nation’s general stock. + +The bodies of men are, without doubt, the most valuable treasure of a +country, and in their sphere the ordinary people are as serviceable to +the commonwealth as the rich if they are employed in honest labour and +useful arts, and such being more in number do more contribute to increase +the nation’s wealth than the higher rank. + +But a country may be populous and yet poor (as were the ancient Gauls and +Scythians), so that numbers, unless they are well employed, make the body +politic big but unwieldy, strong but unactive, as to any uses of good +government. + +Theirs is a wrong opinion who think all mouths profit a country that +consume its produce, and it may be more truly affirmed, that he who does +not some way serve the commonwealth, either by being employed or by +employing others, is not only a useless, but a hurtful member to it. + +As it is charity, and what we indeed owe to human kind, to make provision +for the aged, the lame, the sick, blind, and impotent, so it is a justice +we owe to the commonwealth not to suffer such as have health, and who +might maintain themselves, to be drones and live upon the labour of +others. + +The bulk of such as are a burden to the public consists in the cottagers +and paupers, beggars in great cities and towns, and vagrants. + +Upon a survey of the hearth books, made in Michaelmas, 1685, it was found +that of the 1,300,000 houses in the whole kingdom, those of one chimney +amounted to 554,631, but some of these having land about them, in all our +calculations, we have computed the cottagers but at 500,000 families; but +of these, a large number may get their own livelihood, and are no charge +to the parish, for which reason Mr. King very judiciously computes his +cottagers and paupers, decreasing the wealth of the nation but at 400,000 +families, in which account he includes the poor-houses in cities, towns, +and villages, besides which he reckons 30,000 vagrants, and all these +together to make up 1,330,000 heads. + +This is a very great proportion of the people to be a burden upon the +other part, and is a weight upon the land interest, of which the landed +gentlemen must certainly be very sensible. + +If this vast body of men, instead of being expensive, could be rendered +beneficial to the commonwealth, it were a work, no doubt, highly to be +promoted by all who love their country. + +It seems evident, to such as have considered these matters, and who have +observed how they are ordered in nations under a good polity, that the +number of such who through age or impotence stand in real need of relief, +is but small and might be maintained for very little, and that the poor +rates are swelled to the extravagant degree we now see them at by two +sorts of people, one of which, by reason of our slack administration, is +suffered to remain in sloth, and the other, through a defect in our +constitution, continue in wretched poverty for want of employment, though +willing enough to undertake it. + +All this seems capable of a remedy, the laws may be armed against +voluntary idleness, so as to prevent it, and a way may probably be found +out to set those to work who are desirous to support themselves by their +own labour; and if this could be brought about, it would not only put a +stop to the course of that vice which is the consequence of an idle life, +but it would greatly tend to enrich the commonwealth, for if the industry +of not half the people maintain in some degree the other part, and, +besides, in times of peace did add every year near two million and a half +to the general stock of England, to what pitch of wealth and greatness +might we not be brought, if one limb were not suffered to draw away the +nourishment of the other, and if all the members of the body politic were +rendered useful to it? + +Nature, in her contrivances, has made every part of a living creature +either for ornament or use; the same should be in a politic institution +rightly governed. + +It may be laid down for an undeniable truth, that where all work nobody +will want, and to promote this would be a greater charity and more +meritorious than to build hospitals, which very often are but so many +monuments of ill-gotten riches attended with late repentance. + +To make as many as possible of these 1,330,000 persons (whereof not above +330,000 are children too young to work) who now live chiefly upon others +get themselves a large share of their maintenance would be the opening a +new vein of treasure of some millions sterling per annum; it would be a +present ease to every particular man of substance, and a lasting benefit +to the whole body of the kingdom, for it would not only nourish but +increase the numbers of the people, of which many thousands perish every +year by those diseases contracted under a slothful poverty. + +Our laws relating to the poor are very numerous, and this matter has +employed the care of every age for a long time, though but with little +success, partly through the ill execution, and partly through some defect +in the very laws. + +The corruptions of mankind are grown so great that, now-a-days, laws are +not much observed which do not in a manner execute themselves; of this +nature are those laws which relate to bringing in the Prince’s revenue, +which never fail to be put in execution, because the people must pay, and +the Prince will be paid; but where only one part of the constitution, the +people, are immediately concerned, as in laws relating to the poor, the +highways, assizes, and other civil economy, and good order in the state, +those are but slenderly regarded. + +The public good being therefore, very often, not a motive strong enough +to engage the magistrate to perform his duty, lawgivers have many times +fortified their laws with penalties, wherein private persons may have a +profit, thereby to stir up the people to put the laws in execution. + +In countries depraved nothing proceeds well wherein particular men do not +one way or other find their account; and rather than a public good should +not go on at all, without doubt, it is better to give private men some +interest to set it forward. + +For which reason it may be worth the consideration of such as study the +prosperity and welfare of England, whether this great engine of +maintaining the poor, and finding them work and employment, may not be +put in motion by giving some body of undertakers a reasonable gain to put +the machine upon its wheels. + +In order to which, we shall here insert a proposal delivered to the House +of Commons last session of Parliament, for the better maintaining the +impotent, and employing and setting to work the other poor of this +kingdom. + +In matters of this nature, it is always good to have some model or plan +laid down, which thinking men may contemplate, alter, and correct, as +they see occasion; and the writer of these papers does rather choose to +offer this scheme, because he is satisfied it was composed by a gentleman +of great abilities, and who has made both the poor rates, and their +number, more his study than any other person in the nation. The proposal +is as follows + + + +_A Scheme for Setting the Poor to Work_. + + +First, that such persons as shall subscribe and pay the sum of £300,000 +as a stock for and towards the better maintaining the impotent poor, and +for buying commodities and materials to employ and set at work the other +poor, be incorporated and made one body politic, &c. By the name of the +Governor and Company for Maintaining and Employing the Poor of this +Kingdom. + +By all former propositions, it was intended that the parishes should +advance several years’ rates to raise a stock, but by this proposal the +experiment is to be made by private persons at their risk; and £300,000 +may be judged a very good stock, which, added to the poor rates for a +certain number of years, will be a very good fund for buying commodities +and materials for a million of money at any time. This subscription +ought to be free for everybody, and if the sum were subscribed in the +several counties of England and Wales, in proportion to their poor rates, +or the monthly assessment, it would be most convenient; and provision may +be made that no person shall transfer his interest but to one of the same +county, which will keep the interest there during the term; and as to its +being one Corporation, it is presumed this will be most beneficial to the +public. For first, all disputes on removes, which are very chargeable +and burthensome, will be at an end—this proposal intending, that wherever +the poor are, they shall be maintained or employed. Secondly, it will +prevent one county which shall be diligent, imposing on their neighbours +who may be negligent, or getting away their manufactures from them. +Thirdly, in case of fire, plague, or loss of manufacture, the stock of +one county may not be sufficient to support the places where such +calamities may happen; and it is necessary the whole body should support +every particular member, so that hereby there will be a general care to +administer to every place according to their necessities. + +Secondly, that the said Corporation be established for the term of +one-and-twenty years. + +The Corporation ought to be established for one-and-twenty years, or +otherwise it cannot have the benefit the law gives in case of infants, +which is their service for their education; besides, it will be some +years before a matter of this nature can be brought into practice. + +Thirdly, that the said sum of £300,000 be paid in, and laid out for the +purposes aforesaid, to remain as a stock for and during the said term of +one-and-twenty years. + +The subscription ought to be taken at the passing of the Act, but the +Corporation to be left at liberty to begin either the Michaelmas or the +Lady Day after, as they shall think fit. And XXX per cent. to be paid at +the subscribing to persons appointed for that purpose, and the remainder +before they begin to act; but so as £300,000 shall be always in stock +during the term, notwithstanding any dividends or other disposition: and +an account thereof to be exhibited twice in every year upon oath, before +the Lord Chancellor for the time being. + +Fourthly, that the said corporation do by themselves, or agents in every +parish of England, from and after the XXX day of XXX during the said term +of one-and-twenty years, provide for the real impotent poor good and +sufficient maintenance and reception, as good or better than hath at any +time within the space of XXX years before the said XXX day of XXX been +provided or allowed to such impotent poor, and so shall continue to +provide for such impotent poor, and what other growing impotent poor +shall happen in the said parish during the said term. + +By impotent poor is to be understood all infants and old and decrepid +persons not able to work; also persons who by sickness or any accident +are for the time unable to labour for themselves or families; and all +persons (not being fit for labour) who were usually relieved by the money +raised for the use of the poor; they shall have maintenance, as good or +better, as within XXX years they used to have. + +This does not directly determine what that shall be, nor is it possible, +by reason a shilling in one county is as much as two in another; but it +will be the interest of the Corporation that such poor be well provided +for, by reason the contrary will occasion all the complaints or clamour +that probably can be made against the Corporation. + +Fifthly, that the Corporation do provide (as well for all such poor which +on the said XXX day of XXX shall be on the poor books, as for what other +growing poor shall happen in the said term who are or shall be able to +labour or do any work) sufficient labour and work proper for such persons +to be employed in. And that provision shall be made for such labouring +persons according to their labour, so as such provision doth not exceed +three-fourth parts as much as any other person would have paid for such +labour. And in case they are not employed and set to work, then such +persons shall, until materials or labour be provided for them, be +maintained as impotent poor; but so as such persons who shall hereafter +enter themselves on the poor’s book, being able to labour, shall not quit +the service of the corporation, without leave, for the space of six +months. + +The Corporation are to provide materials and labour for all that can +work, and to make provision for them not exceeding three-fourth parts as +much as any other person would give for such labour. For example, if +another person would give one of these a shilling, the Corporation ought +to give but ninepence. And the reason is plain, first, because the +Corporation will be obliged to maintain them and their families in all +exigences, which others are not obliged to do, and consequently they +ought not to allow so much as others. Secondly, in case any persons able +to labour, shall come to the Corporation, when their agents are not +prepared with materials to employ them, by this proposal they are to +allow them full provision as impotent poor, until they find them work, +which is entirely in favour of the poor. Thirdly, it is neither +reasonable nor possible for the Corporation to provide materials upon +every occasion, for such persons as shall be entered with them, unless +they can be secure of such persons to work up those materials; besides, +without this provision, all the labouring people of England will play +fast and loose between their employers and the Corporation, for as they +are disobliged by one, they will run to the other, and so neither shall +be sure of them. + +Sixthly, that no impotent poor shall be removed out of the parish where +they dwell, but upon notice in writing given to the churchwardens or +overseers of the said parish, to what place of provision he or she is +removed. + +It is judged the best method to provide for the impotent poor in houses +prepared for that purpose, where proper provision may be made for +several, with all necessaries of care and maintenance. So that in some +places one house will serve the impotent poor of several parishes, in +which case the parish ought to know where to resort, to see if good +provision be made for them. + +Seventhly, that in case provision be not made for the poor of each +parish, in manner as aforesaid (upon due notice given to the agents of +the Corporation) the said parish may order their poor to be maintained, +and deduct the sum by them expended out of the next payments to be made +to the said corporation by the said parish. + +In case any accident happens in a parish, either by sickness, fall, +casualty of fire, or other ways; and that the agent of the Corporation is +not present to provide for them, or having notice doth not immediately do +it, the parish may do it, and deduct so much out of the next payment; but +there must be provision made for the notice, and in what time the +Corporation shall provide for them. + +Eighthly, that the said Corporation shall have and receive for the said +one-and-twenty years, that is to say, from every parish yearly, so much +as such parish paid in any one year, to be computed by a medium of seven +years; namely, from the 25th of March, 1690, to the 25th of March 1697, +and to be paid half-yearly; and besides, shall receive the benefit of the +revenues of all donations given to any parish, or which shall be given +during the said term, and all forfeitures which the law gives to the use +of the poor; and to all other sums which were usually collected by the +parish, for the maintenance of the poor. + +Whatever was raised for or applied to the use of the poor, ought to be +paid over to the Corporation; and where there are any donations for +maintaining the poor, it will answer the design of the donor, by reason +there will be better provision for the maintenance of the poor than ever; +and if that maintenance be so good, as to induce further charities, no +doubt the Corporation ought to be entitled to them. But there are two +objections to this article; first that to make a medium by a time of war +is unreasonable. Secondly, to continue the whole tax for one-and-twenty +years, does not seem to give any benefit to the kingdom in that time. To +the first, it is true, we have a peace, but trade is lower now than at +any time during the war, and the charge of the poor greater; and when +trade will mend is very uncertain. To the second, it is very plain, that +although the charge may be the same to a parish in the total, yet it will +be less to particular persons, because those who before received alms, +will now be enabled to be contributors; but besides, the turning so many +hundred thousand pounds a year (which in a manner have hitherto been +applied only to support idleness) into industry; and the employing so +many other idle vagrants and sturdy beggars, with the product of their +labour, will altogether be a present benefit to the lands of England, as +well in the rents as in the value; and further the accidental charities +in the streets and at doors, is, by a very modest computation, over and +above the poor rates, at least £300,000 per annum, which will be entirely +saved by this proposal, and the persons set at work; which is a further +consideration for its being well received, since the Corporation are not +allowed anything for this service. + +The greater the encouragement is, the better the work will be performed; +and it will become the wisdom of the parliament in what they do, to make +it effectual; for should such an undertaking as this prove ineffectual, +instead of remedying, it will increase the mischief. + +Ninthly, that all the laws made for the provision of the poor, and for +punishing idle vagrant persons, be repealed, and one law made to continue +such parts as are found useful, and to add such other restrictions, +penalties, and provisions, as may effectually attain the end of this +great work. + +The laws hereunto relating are numerous, but the judgment and opinions +given upon them are so various and contradictory, and differ so in sundry +places, as to be inconsistent with any one general scheme of management. + +Tenthly, that proper persons be appointed in every county to determine +all matters and differences which may arise between the corporation and +the respective parishes. + +To prevent any ill usage, neglect or cruelty, it will be necessary to +make provision that the poor may tender their complaints to officers of +the parish; and that those officers having examined the same, and not +finding redress, may apply to persons to be appointed in each county and +each city for that purpose, who may be called supervisors of the poor, +and may have allowance made them for their trouble; and their business +may be to examine the truth of such complaints; and in case either the +parish or corporation judge themselves aggrieved by the determination of +the said supervisors, provision may be made that an appeal lie to the +quarter sessions. + +Eleventhly, that the corporation be obliged to provide for all public +beggars, and to put the laws into execution against public beggars and +idle vagrant persons. + +Such of the public beggars as can work must be employed, the rest to be +maintained as impotent poor, but the laws to be severely put in execution +against those who shall ask any public alms. + +This proposal, which in most parts of it seems to be very maturely +weighed, may be a foundation for those to build upon who have a public +spirit large enough to embrace such a noble undertaking. + +But the common obstruction to anything of this nature is a malignant +temper in some who will not let a public work go on if private persons +are to be gainers by it. When they are to get themselves, they abandon +all sense of virtue; but are clothed in her whitest robe when they smell +profit coming to another, masking themselves with a false zeal to the +commonwealth, where their own turn is not to be served. It were better, +indeed, that men would serve their country for the praise and honour that +follow good actions, but this is not to be expected in a nation at least +leaning towards corruption, and in such an age it is as much as we can +hope for if the prospect of some honest gain invites people to do the +public faithful service. For which reason, in any undertaking where it +can be made apparent that a great benefit will accrue to the commonwealth +in general, we ought not to have an evil eye upon what fair advantages +particular men may thereby expect to reap, still taking care to keep +their appetite of getting within moderate bounds, laying all just and +reasonable restraints upon it, and making due provision that they may not +wrong or oppress their fellow subjects. + +It is not to be denied, but that if fewer hands were suffered to remain +idle, and if the poor had full employment, it would greatly tend to the +common welfare, and contribute much towards adding every year to the +general stock of England. + +Among the methods that we have here proposed of employing the poor, and +making the whole body of the people useful to the public, we think it our +duty to mind those who consider the common welfare of looking with a +compassionate eye into the prisons of this kingdom, where many thousands +consume their time in vice and idleness, wasting the remainder of their +fortunes, or lavishing the substance of their creditors, eating bread and +doing no work, which is contrary to good order, and pernicious to the +commonwealth. + +We cannot therefore but recommend the thoughts of some good bill that may +effectually put an end to this mischief so scandalous in a trading +country, which should let no hands remain useless. + +It is not at all difficult to contrive such a bill as may relieve and +release the debtor, and yet preserve to his creditors all their fair, +just, and honest rights and interest. + +And so we have in this matter endeavoured to show that to preserve and +increase the people, and to make their numbers useful, are methods +conducing to make us gainers in the balance of trade. + + + + +FOOTNOTES. + + +{75} In the book there are no figures in the table at all.—DP. + +{76} In the book there are no figures in the table at all.—DP. + +{77} In the book there are no figures in the table at all.—DP. + +{148} This table spreads over two opposite pages in the book. It has +been split down the middle for this eBook.—DP.] + + + + +***END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK ESSAYS ON MANKIND AND POLITICAL +ARITHMETIC*** + + +******* This file should be named 5619-0.txt or 5619-0.zip ******* + + +This and all associated files of various formats will be found in: +http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/5/6/1/5619 + + + +Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions +will be renamed. + +Creating the works from public domain print editions means that no +one owns a United States copyright in these works, so the Foundation +(and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United States without +permission and without paying copyright royalties. Special rules, +set forth in the General Terms of Use part of this license, apply to +copying and distributing Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works to +protect the PROJECT GUTENBERG-tm concept and trademark. 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You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + + + + + +Title: Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic + + +Author: William Petty + +Editor: Henry Morley + +Release Date: August 3, 2014 [eBook #5619] +[This file was first posted on July 23, 2002] + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: ISO-646-US (US-ASCII) + + +***START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK ESSAYS ON MANKIND AND POLITICAL +ARITHMETIC*** +</pre> +<p>Transcribed from the Cassell & Co. edition by David Price, +email ccx074@pglaf.org</p> +<p style="text-align: center"> +<a href="images/coverb.jpg"> +<img alt= +"Book cover" +title= +"Book cover" +src="images/covers.jpg" /> +</a></p> +<h1>ESSAYS ON MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETIC</h1> +<h2>INTRODUCTION.</h2> +<p><span class="smcap">William Petty</span>, born on the 26th of +May, 1623, was the son of a clothier at Romsey in +Hampshire. After education at the Romsey Grammar School, he +continued his studies at Caen in Normandy. There he +supported himself by a little trade while learning French, and +advancing his knowledge of Greek, Latin, Mathematics, and much +else that belonged to his idea of a liberal education. His +idea was large. He came back to England, and had for a +short time a place in the Navy; but at the age of twenty he went +abroad again, and was away three years, studying actively at +Utrecht, Leyden, and Amsterdam, and also in Paris. In Paris +he assisted Thomas Hobbes in drawing diagrams for his treatise on +optics. At the age of twenty-four Petty took out a patent +for the invention of a copying machine. It was described in +a folio pamphlet “On Double Writing.” That was +in 1647, in Civil War time, and although Petty followed Hobbes in +his studies, he did not share the philosopher’s political +opinions, but held with the Parliament. In 1648 he added to +his former pamphlet a “Declaration concerning the newly +invented Art of Double Writing.”</p> +<p>Samuel Hartlib, the large-hearted Pole, who in those days +spent his worldly means in England for the advancement of +agriculture and of education, and other aids to the well-being of +a nation, had caused Milton to write his letter on education, as +has been shown in the Introduction to the hundred and +twenty-first volume of this Library, which contains that Letter +together with Milton’s Areopagitica. Young +Petty’s first published writing was a Letter to Hartlib on +Education, entitled “The Advice of W. P. to Mr. Samuel +Hartlib for the Advancement of some Particular Parts of +Learning.” This appeared in 1648, when Petty’s +age was twenty-five, and its aim was to suggest a wider view of +the whole field of education than had been possible in the Middle +Ages, of which schools and colleges were then preserving the +traditions, as they do still here and there to some extent. +This pamphlet has been reprinted in the sixth volume of the +“Harleian Miscellany.” William Petty wished the +training of the young to be in several respects more +practical.</p> +<p>His own activity of mind caused him to settle at Oxford, where +he taught anatomy and chemistry, which he had been studying +abroad. He had read with Hobbes the writings of Vesalius, +the great founder of modern practical anatomy. In 1649 +William Petty graduated at Oxford as Doctor of Medicine, obtained +a fellowship at Brasenose, and practised. In 1650 he +surprised the public by restoring the action of the lungs in a +woman who had been hanged for infanticide, and so restoring her +to life.</p> +<p>Dr. Petty now took his place at Oxford among the energetic men +of science who had been inspired by the teaching of Francis Bacon +to seek knowledge by direct experiment, and to value knowledge +above all things for its power of advancing the welfare of +man. The headquarters of these workers were at Oxford, and +in London at Gresham College.</p> +<p>In 1650 Petty was made Professor of Anatomy at Oxford, and it +is a characteristic illustration of his great activity of mind +that he was at the same time Professor of Music at Gresham +College. Music had then a high place in the Seven Sciences, +as that use of regulated numbers which expressed the harmonies of +the created world. The Seven Sciences were divided into +three of the Trivium, and four of the Quadrivium. The three +of the Trivium concerned the use of speech; they were Grammar, +Rhetoric, and Logic. The four of the Quadrivium concerned +number and measure; they were Arithmetic, Geometry, Music; and +Astronomy, which led up straight to God. Advance to Music +might be represented in the student’s mind by his reaching +to a sense of the harmonious relation of all his studies, which, +so to speak, lived in his mind as a single well-proportioned +thought.</p> +<p>In 1652 Dr. Petty was sent to Ireland as physician to the army +of the Commonwealth. While there his active mind observed +that the Survey on which the Government had based its +distribution of fortified lands to the soldiers had been +“most inefficiently and absurdly managed.” He +obtained the commission to make a fresh Survey, which he +completed accurately in thirteen months, and by which he obtained +in payments from the Government and from other persons interested +ten thousand pounds. By investing this in the purchase of +soldiers’ claims, he secured for himself an Irish estate of +fifty thousand acres in the county of Kerry, opened upon it mines +and quarries, developed trade in timber, and set up a +fishery. John Evelyn said of him “that he had never +known such another genius, and that if Evelyn were a prince he +would make Petty his second councillor at least.” +Henry Cromwell as Lord Deputy in Ireland made Petty his +secretary.</p> +<p>Petty’s Maps were printed in 1685, two years before his +death, as “Hiberniæ Delineatio quoad hactenus licuit +perfectissima;” a collection of thirty-six maps, with a +portrait of Sir William Petty, a work answering to its +description as the most perfect delineation of Ireland that had +up to that time been obtained. There is a coloured copy of +Petty’s maps in the British Museum, and also an uncoloured +copy, with the first five maps varying from those in the coloured +copy, and giving a General Map of Ireland, followed by Maps of +Leinster, Munster, Ulster, and Connaught. There was +afterwards published in duodecimo, without date, “A +Geographical Description of ye Kingdom of Ireland, collected from +ye actual Survey made by Sir William Petty, corrected and +amended, engraven and published by Fra. Lamb.” This +volume gives as its contents, “one general mapp, four +provincial mapps, and thirty-two county mapps; to which is added +a mapp of Great Brittaine and Ireland, together with an Index of +the whole.”</p> +<p>At the Restoration William Petty accepted the inevitable +change, and continued his service to the country. He was +knighted by Charles the Second, and appointed in 1661 +Inspector-General of Ireland. He entered Parliament. +He was one of the first founders of the Royal Society, +established at the beginning of the reign of Charles the Second; +and the outcome of these scientific studies along the line marked +out by Francis Bacon, which had been actively pursued in Oxford +and at Gresham College. In 1663 he applied his ingenuity to +the invention of a swift double-bottomed ship, that made one or +two passages between England and Ireland, but was then lost in a +storm.</p> +<p>In 1670 Sir William Petty established on his lands at Kerry +the English settlement at the head of the bay of Kenmare. +The building of forty-two houses for the English settlers first +laid the foundations of the present town of Kenmare. +“The population,” writes Lord Macaulay, +“amounted to a hundred and eighty. The land round the +town was well cultivated. The cattle were numerous. +Two small barks were employed in fishing and trading along the +coast. The supply of herrings, pilchards, mackerel, and +salmon, was plentiful, and would have been still more plentiful +had not the beach been, in the finest part of the year, covered +by multitudes of seals, which preyed on the fish of the +bay. Yet the seal was not an unwelcome visitor: his fur was +valuable; and his oil supplied light through the long nights of +winter. An attempt was made with great success to set up +ironworks. It was not yet the practice to employ coal for +the purpose of smelting; and the manufacturers of Kent and Sussex +had much difficulty in procuring timber at a reasonable +price. The neighbourhood of Kenmare was then richly wooded; +and Petty found it a gainful speculation to send ore +thither.” He looked also for profit from the +variegated marbles of adjacent islands. Distant two +days’ journey over the mountains from the nearest English, +Petty’s English settlement of Kenmare withstood all +surrounding dangers, and in 1688, a year after its +founder’s death, defended itself successfully against a +fierce and general attack.</p> +<p>Sir William Petty died at London, on the 16th of December, +1687, and was buried in his native town of Romsey. He had +added to his great wealth by marriage, and was the founder of the +family in which another Sir William Petty became Earl of +Shelburne and first Marquis of Lansdowne. The son of that +first Marquis was Henry third Marquis of Lansdowne, who took a +conspicuous part in our political history during the present +century.</p> +<p>Sir William Petty’s survey of the land in Ireland, +called the Down Survey, because its details were set down in +maps, remains the legal record of the title on which half the +land in Ireland is held. The original maps are preserved in +the Public Record Office at Dublin, and many of Petty’s +MSS. are in the Bodleian Library at Oxford.</p> +<p>He published in 1662 and 1685 a “Treatise of Taxes and +Contributions, the same being frequently to the present state and +affairs of Ireland,” of which his view started from the +general opinion that men should contribute to the public charge +according to their interest in the public peace—that is, +according to their riches. “Now,” he said, +“there are two sorts of riches—one actual, and the +other potential. A man is actually and truly rich according +to what he eateth, drinketh, weareth, or in any other way really +and actually enjoyeth. Others are but potentially and +imaginatively rich, who though they have power over much, make +little use of it, these being rather stewards and exchangers for +the other sort than owners for themselves.” He then +showed how he considered that “every man ought to +contribute according to what he taketh to himself, and actually +enjoyeth.”</p> +<p>In 1674 Sir William Petty published a paper on +“Duplicate Proportion,” and in 1679 he published in +Latin a “Colloquy of David with his Own Soul.” +In 1682 he published a tract called “Quantulumcunque, +concerning Money;” and “England’s Guide to +Industry,” in 1686. From 1682 to 1687, the year of +his death, Sir William Petty was drawing great attention to the +“Essays on Political Arithmetic,” which are here +reprinted. There was the little “Essay in Political +Arithmetic, concerning the People, Housings, Hospitals of London +and Paris;” published in 1682, again in French in 1686, and +again in English in 1687. There was the little “Essay +concerning the Multiplication of Mankind, together with an Essay +on the Growth of London,” published in 1682, and again in +1683 and 1686. There was in 1683, “Another Essay in +Political Arithmetic concerning the growth of the City of +London.” There were “Farther Considerations on +the Dublin Bills of Mortality,” in 1686; and “Five +Essays on Political Arithmetic” (in French and English), +“Observations upon the Cities of London and Rome,” in +1687, the last year of Sir William Petty’s life. +Other writings of his were published in his lifetime, or have +been published since his death. He was in the study of +political economy one of the most ingenious and practical +thinkers before the days of Adam Smith.</p> +<p>But the interest of those “Essays in Political +Arithmetic” lies chiefly in the facts presented by so +trustworthy an authority. London had become in the time of +the Stuarts the most populous city in Europe, if not in the +world. This Sir William Petty sought to prove against the +doubts of foreign and other critics, and his “Political +Arithmetic” was an endeavour to determine the relative +strength in population of the chief cities of England, France, +and Holland. His application of arithmetic in the first of +these essays to a census of the population at the Day of Judgment +he himself spoke of slightingly. It is a curious example of +a bygone form of theological discussion. But his tables and +his reasonings upon them grow in interest as he attempts his +numbering of the people in the reign of James II. by collecting +facts upon which his deductions might be founded. The +references to the deaths by Plague in London before the cleansing +of the town by the great fire of 1666 are very suggestive; and in +one passage there is incidental note of delay in the coming of +the Plague then due, without reckoning the change made in +conditions of health by the rebuilding. Nobody knew, and no +one even now can calculate, how many lives the Fire of London +saved.</p> +<p>There was in Petty’s time no direct numbering of the +people. The first census in this country was not until more +than a hundred years after Sir William Petty’s death, +although he points out in these essays how easily it could be +established, and what useful information it would give. +There was a census taken at Rome 566 years before Christ. +But the first census in Great Britain was taken in 1801, under +provision of an Act passed on the last day of the year 1800, to +secure a numbering of the population every ten years. +Ireland was not included in the return; the first census in +Ireland was not until the year 1813.</p> +<p>Sir William Petty had to base his calculations partly upon the +Bills of Mortality, which had been imperfectly begun under +Elizabeth, but fell into disuse, and were revived, as a weekly +record of the number of deaths, beginning on the 29th of October, +1603; notices of diseases first appeared in them in 1629. +The weekly bills were published every Thursday, and any +householder could have them supplied to him for four shillings a +year. These essays will show how inferences as to the +number of the living were drawn from the number of the +dead. And even now our Political Arithmetic depends too +much upon rough calculations made from the death register. +It is seven years since the last census; we have lost count of +the changes in our population to a very great extent, and have to +wait three years before our reckoning can be made sure. The +interval should be reduced to five years.</p> +<p>Another of Sir William Petty’s helps in the arithmetic +of population was the Chimney Tax, a revival of the old fumage or +hearth-money—smoke farthings, as the people called +them—once paid, according to Domesday Book, for every +chimney in a house. Charles the Second had set up a chimney +tax in the year 1662; the statistics of the collection were at +the service of Sir William Petty. The tax outlived him but +two years. It was promptly abolished in the first year of +William and Mary.</p> +<p>The interest taken at home and abroad in these calculations of +Political Arithmetic set other men calculating, and reasoning +upon their calculations. The next worker in that direction +was Gregory King, Lancaster Herald, whose calculations +immediately followed those of Sir William Petty. Sir +William Petty’s essays extended from 1682 until his death +in 1687. Gregory King’s estimates were made in +1689. They were a study of the number population and +distribution of wealth among us at the time of the English +Revolution, and the unpublished results were first printed in a +chapter on “The People of England,” which formed part +a volume published in 1699 as “An Essay upon the Probable +Methods of making a People Gainers in the Balance of Trade, by +the Author of the Essay on Ways and Means.” The +volume was written by a member of Parliament in the days of +William and Mary, who desired to apply principles of political +economy to the maintenance of English wealth and liberty. +It has been wrongly scribed to Defoe; and its suggestion of the +plan a trading Corporation for solution of the whole problem of +relief to the poor who cannot work, and relief from the poor who +can, might indeed make another chapter in Defoe’s +“Essay on Projects.” The chapter, which gives +the Political Arithmetic of Gregory King, with such comment and +suggestions as might be expected from a liberal supporter of the +Revolution, and with this suggestion of a Corporation, is in +itself a complete essay. It follows naturally upon the +Political Arithmetic of Sir William Petty in close sequence of +time, and in carrying a like method of inquiry forward until it +reaches a few more conclusions. I have, therefore, added it +to this volume. It seems, at any rate, to show how Sir +William Petty’s books, of which the very small size grieved +the stationer, had a large influence on other minds; his figures +bearing fruit in a new search for facts and careful reasoning on +the condition of the country at one of the most critical times in +English history.</p> +<p style="text-align: right">H. M.</p> +<h2>THE STATIONER TO THE READER.</h2> +<p><span class="smcap">The</span> ensuing essay concerning the +growth of the city of London was entitled “Another +Essay,” intimating that some other essay had preceded it, +which was not to be found. I having been much importuned +for that precedent essay, have found that the same was about the +growth, increase, and multiplication of mankind, which subject +should in order of nature precede that of the growth of the city +of London, but am not able to procure the essay itself, only I +have obtained from a gentleman, who sometimes corresponded with +Sir W. Petty, an extract of a letter from Sir William to him, +which I verily believe containeth the scope thereof; wherefore, I +must desire the reader to be content therewith, till more can be +had.</p> + +<div class="gapmediumline"> </div> +<p><i>The extract of a letter concerning the scope of an essay +intended to precede another essay concerning the growth of the +City of London</i>, <i>&c.</i> <i>An Essay in Political +Arithmetic</i>, <i>concerning the value and increase of People +and Colonies</i>.</p> +<p><span class="smcap">The</span> scope of this essay is +concerning people and colonies, and to make way for +“Another Essay” concerning the growth of the city of +London. I desire in this first essay to give the world some +light concerning the numbers of people in England, with Wales, +and in Ireland; as also of the number of houses and families +wherein they live, and of acres they occupy.</p> +<p>2. How many live upon their lands, how many upon their +personal estates and commerce, and how many upon art, and labour; +how many upon alms, how many upon offices and public employments, +and how many as cheats and thieves; how many are impotents, +children, and decrepit old men.</p> +<p>3. How many upon the poll-taxes in England, do pay +extraordinary rates, and how many at the level.</p> +<p>4. How many men and women are prolific, and how many of +each are married or unmarried.</p> +<p>5. What the value of people are in England, and what in +Ireland at a medium, both as members of the Church or +Commonwealth, or as slaves and servants to one another; with a +method how to estimate the same, in any other country or +colony.</p> +<p>6. How to compute the value of land in colonies, in +comparison to England and Ireland.</p> +<p>7. How 10,000 people in a colony may be planted to the +best advantage.</p> +<p>8. A conjecture in what number of years England and +Ireland may be fully peopled, as also all America, and lastly the +whole habitable earth.</p> +<p>9. What spot of the earth’s globe were fittest for +a general and universal emporium, whereby all the people thereof +may best enjoy one another’s labours and commodities.</p> +<p>10. Whether the speedy peopling of the earth would +make</p> +<p class="gutindent">(1) For the good of mankind.</p> +<p class="gutindent">(2) To fulfil the revealed will of God.</p> +<p class="gutindent">(3) To what prince or State the same would +be most advantageous.</p> +<p>11. An exhortation to all thinking men to solve the +Scriptures and other good histories, concerning the number of +people in all ages of the world, in the great cities thereof, and +elsewhere.</p> +<p>12. An appendix concerning the different number of +sea-fish and wild-fowl at the end of every thousand years since +Noah’s Flood.</p> +<p>13. An hypothesis of the use of those spaces (of about +8,000 miles through) within the globe of our earth, supposing a +shell of 150 miles thick.</p> +<p>14. What may be the meaning of glorified bodies, in case +the place of the blessed shall be without the convex of the orb +of the fixed stars, if that the whole system of the world was +made for the use of our earth’s men.</p> +<h2>THE PRINCIPAL POINTS OF THIS DISCOURSE.</h2> +<p>1. <span class="smcap">That</span> London doubles in +forty years, and all England in three hundred and sixty +years.</p> +<p>2. That there be, <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> +1682, about 670,000 souls in London, and about 7,400,000 in all +England and Wales, and about 28,000,000 of acres of profitable +land.</p> +<p>3. That the periods of doubling the people are found to +be, in all degrees, from between ten to twelve hundred years.</p> +<p>4. That the growth of London must stop of itself before +the year 1800.</p> +<p>5. A table helping to understand the Scriptures, +concerning the number of people mentioned in them.</p> +<p>6. That the world will be fully peopled within the next +two thousand years.</p> +<p>7. Twelve ways whereby to try any proposal pretended for +the public good.</p> +<p>8. How the city of London may be made (morally speaking) +invincible.</p> +<p>9. A help to uniformity in religion.</p> +<p>10. That it is possible to increase mankind by +generation four times more than at present.</p> +<p>11. The plagues of London is the chief impediment and +objection against the growth of the city.</p> +<p>12. That an exact account of the people is necessary in +this matter.</p> +<h2>OF THE GROWTH OF THE CITY OF LONDON:</h2> +<p style="text-align: center"><i>And of the Measures</i>, +<i>Periods</i>, <i>Causes</i>, <i>and Consequences +thereof</i>.</p> +<p><span class="smcap">By</span> the city of London we mean the +housing within the walls of the old city, with the liberties +thereof, Westminster, the Borough of Southwark, and so much of +the built ground in Middlesex and Surrey, whose houses are +contiguous unto, or within call of those aforementioned. Or +else we mean the housing which stand upon the ninety-seven +parishes within the walls of London; upon the sixteen parishes +next without them; the six parishes of Westminster, and the +fourteen out-parishes in Middlesex and Surrey, contiguous to the +former, all which, 133 parishes, are comprehended within the +weekly bills of mortality.</p> +<p>The growth of this city is measured. (1) By the quantity +of ground, or number of acres upon which it stands. (2) By +the number of houses, as the same appears by the hearth-books and +late maps. (3) By the cubical content of the said housing. +(4) By the flooring of the same. (5) By the number of +days’ work, or charge of building the said houses. +(6) By the value of the said houses, according to their yearly +rent, and number of years’ purchase. (7) By the +number of inhabitants; according to which latter sense only we +make our computations in this essay.</p> +<p>Till a better rule can be obtained, we conceive that the +proportion of the people may be sufficiently measured by the +proportion of the burials in such years as were neither +remarkable for extraordinary healthfulness or sickliness.</p> +<p>That the city hath increased in this latter sense appears from +the bills of mortality represented in the two following tables, +viz., one whereof is a continuation for eighteen years, ending +1682, of that table which was published in the 117th page of the +book of the observations upon the London bills of mortality, +printed in the year 1676. The other showeth what number of +people died at a medium of two years, indifferently taken, at +about twenty years’ distance from each other.</p> +<p>The first of the said two tables.</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: center"><span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span></p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">97 Parishes.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">16 Parishes.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Out Parishes.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Buried in all.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Besides of the Plague.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Christened.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1665</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,320</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12,463</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10,925</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">28,708</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">68,596</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">9,967</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1666</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,689</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,969</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,082</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10,740</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,998</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8,997</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1667</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">761</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,405</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8,641</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">15,807</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">35</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10,938</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1668</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">796</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,865</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">9,603</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">17,267</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">14</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">11,633</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1669</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,323</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">7,500</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10,440</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">19,263</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12,335</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1670</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,890</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">7,808</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10,500</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">20,198</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">11,997</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1671</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,723</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,938</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8,063</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">15,724</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12,510</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1672</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,237</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,788</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">9,200</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">18,225</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12,593</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1673</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,307</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,302</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8,890</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">17,499</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">11,895</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1674</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,801</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">7,522</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10,875</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">21,198</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">11,851</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1675</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,555</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,986</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8,702</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">17,243</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">11,775</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1676</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,756</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,508</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">9,466</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">18,730</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12,399</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1677</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,817</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,632</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">9,616</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">19,065</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12,626</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1678</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,060</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,705</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10,908</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">20,673</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12,601</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1679</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,074</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">7,481</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">11,173</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">21,728</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12,288</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1680</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,076</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">7,066</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10,911</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">21,053</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12,747</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1681</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,669</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8,136</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12,166</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">23,971</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">13,355</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1682</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,975</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">7,009</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10,707</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">20,691</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12,653</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>According to which latter table there died as +follows:—</p> +<p style="text-align: center"><span class="smcap">The Latter of +the said Two Tables</span>.</p> +<p style="text-align: center"><i>There died in London at the +medium between the years</i>—</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p>1604 and 1605</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,135.</p> +</td> +<td><p>A.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>1621 and 1622</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8,527</p> +</td> +<td><p>B.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>1641 and 1642</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">11,883</p> +</td> +<td><p>C.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>1661 and 1662</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">15,148.</p> +</td> +<td><p>D.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>1681 and 1682</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">22,331.</p> +</td> +<td><p>E.</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>Wherein observe, that the number C is double to A and 806 +over. That D is double to B within 1,906. That C and +D is double to A and B within 293. That E is double to C +within 1,435. That D and E is double to B and C within +3,341; and that C and D and E are double to A and B and C within +1,736; and that E is above quadruple to A. All which +differences (every way considered) do allow the doubling of the +people of London in 40 years to be a sufficient estimate thereof +in round numbers, and without the trouble of fractions. We +also say that 669,930 is near the number of people now in London, +because the burials are 22,331, which, multiplied by 30 (one +dying yearly out of 30, as appears in the 94th page of the +aforementioned observations), maketh the said number; and because +there are 84,000 tenanted houses (as we are credibly informed), +which, at 8 in each, makes 672,000 souls; the said two accounts +differing inconsiderably from each other.</p> +<p>We have thus pretty well found out in what number of years +(viz., in about 40) that the city of London hath doubled, and the +present number of inhabitants to be about 670,000. We must +now also endeavour the same for the whole territory of England +and Wales. In order whereunto, we first say that the +assessment of London is about an eleventh part of the whole +territory, and, therefore, that the people of the whole may well +be eleven times that of London, viz., about 7,369,000 souls; with +which account that of the poll-money, hearth-money, and the +bishop’s late numbering of the communicants, do pretty well +agree; wherefore, although the said number of 7,369,000 be not +(as it cannot be) a demonstrated truth, yet it will serve for a +good supposition, which is as much as we want at present.</p> +<p>As for the time in which the people double, it is yet more +hard to be found. For we have good experience (in the said +page 94 of the aforementioned observations) that in the country +but 1 of 50 die per annum; and by other late accounts, that there +have been sometimes but 24 births for 23 burials. The which +two points, if they were universally and constantly true, there +would be colour enough to say that the people doubled but in +about 1,200 years. As, for example, suppose there be 600 +people, of which let a fiftieth part die per annum, then there +shall die 12 per annum; and if the births be as 24 to 23, then +the increase of the people shall be somewhat above half a man per +annum, and consequently the supposed number of 600 cannot be +doubled but in 1,126 years, which, to reckon in round numbers, +and for that the aforementioned fractions were not exact, we had +rather call 1,200.</p> +<p>There are also other good observations, that even in the +country one in about 30 or 32 per annum hath died, and that there +have been five births for four burials. Now, according to +this doctrine, 20 will die per annum out of the above 600, and 25 +will be born, so as the increase will be five, which is a hundred +and twentieth part of the said 600. So as we have two fair +computations, differing from each other as one to ten; and there +are also several other good observations for other measures.</p> +<p>I might here insert, that although the births in this last +computation be 25 of 600, or a twenty-fourth part of the people, +yet that in natural possibility they may be near thrice as many, +and near 75. For that by some late observations, the +teeming females between 15 and 44 are about 180 of the said 600, +and the males of between 18 and 59 are about 180 also, and that +every teeming woman can bear a child once in two years; from all +which it is plain that the births may be 90 (and abating 15 for +sickness, young abortions, and natural barrenness), there may +remain 75 births, which is an eighth of the people, which by some +observations we have found to be but a two-and-thirtieth part, or +but a quarter of what is thus shown to be naturally +possible. Now, according to this reckoning, if the births +may be 75 of 600, and the burials but 15, then the annual +increase of the people will be 60; and so the said 600 people may +double in ten years, which differs yet more from 1,200 +above-mentioned. Now, to get out of this difficulty, and to +temper those vast disagreements, I took the medium of 50 and 30 +dying per annum, and pitched upon 40; and I also took the medium +between 24 births and 23 burials, and 5 births for 4 burials, +viz., allowing about 10 births for 9 burials; upon which +supposition there must die 15 per annum out of the +above-mentioned 600, and the births must be 16 and two-thirds, +and the increase one and two-thirds, or five-thirds of a man, +which number, compared with 1,800 thirds, or 600 men, gives 360 +years for the time of doubling (including some allowance for +wars, plagues, and famines, the effects thereof), though they be +terrible at the times and places where they happen, yet in a +period of 360 years is no great matter in the whole nation. +For the plagues of England in twenty years have carried away +scarce an eightieth part of the people of the whole nation; and +the late ten years’ civil wars (the like whereof hath not +been in several ages before) did not take away above a fortieth +part of the whole people.</p> +<p>According to which account or measure of doubling, if there be +now in England and Wales 7,400,000 people, there were about +5,526,000 in the beginning of Queen Elizabeth’s reign, +<span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1560, and about 2,000,000 at +the Norman Conquest, of which consult the Doomsday Book, and my +Lord Hale’s “Origination of Mankind.”</p> +<p>Memorandum.—That if the people double in 360 years, that +the present 320,000,000 computed by some learned men (from the +measures of all the nations of the world, their degrees of being +peopled, and good accounts of the people in several of them) to +be now upon the face of the earth, will within the next 2,000 +years so increase as to give one head for every two acres of land +in the habitable part of the earth. And then, according to +the prediction of the Scriptures, there must be wars, and great +slaughter, &c.</p> +<p>Wherefore, as an expedient against the above-mentioned +difference between 10 and 1,200 years, we do for the present, and +in this country, admit of 360 years to be the time wherein the +people of England do double, according to the present laws and +practice of marriages.</p> +<p>Now, if the city double its people in 40 years, and the +present number be 670,000, and if the whole territory be +7,400,000, and double in 360 years, as aforesaid, then by the +underwritten table it appears that <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1840 the people of the city will be +10,718,880, and those of the whole country but 10,917,389, which +is but inconsiderably more. Wherefore it is certain and +necessary that the growth of the city must stop before the said +year 1840, and will be at its utmost height in the next preceding +period, <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1800, when the number +of the city will be eight times its present number, +5,359,000. And when (besides the said number) there will be +4,466,000 to perform the tillage, pasturage, and other rural +works necessary to be done without the said city, as by the +following table, viz.:—</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center"><span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span></p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Burials.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">People in London.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">People in England.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1565</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,568</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">77,040</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,526,929</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>As in the former table.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1605</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,135</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1642</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">11,883</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1682</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">22,331</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">669,930</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">7,369,230</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1722</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">44,662</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1762</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">89,324</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1802</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">178,648</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,359,440</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">9,825,650</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1842</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">357,296</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10,718,889</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10,917,389</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>Now, when the people of London shall come to be so near the +people of all England, then it follows that the growth of London +must stop before the said year 1842, as aforesaid, and must be at +its greatest height <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1800, when +it will be eight times more than now, with above 4,000,000 for +the service of the country and ports, as aforesaid.</p> +<p>Of the aforementioned vast difference between 10 years and +1,200 years for doubling the people, we make this use, +viz.:—To justify the Scriptures and all other good +histories concerning the number of the people in ancient +time. For supposing the eight persons who came out of the +Ark, increased by a progressive doubling in every ten years, +might grow in the first 100 years after the Flood from 8 to +8,000, and that in 350 years after the Flood (whereabouts Noah +died) to 1,000,000 and by this time, 1682, to 320,000,000 (which +by rational conjecture are thought to be now in the world), it +will not be hard to compute how, in the intermediate years, the +growths may be made, according to what is set down in the +following table, wherein making the doubling to be ten years at +first, and within 1,200 years at last, we take a discretionary +liberty, but justifiable by observations and the Scriptures for +the rest, which table we leave to be corrected by historians who +know the bigness of ancient cities, armies, and colonies in the +respective ages of the world, in the meantime affirming that +without such difference in the measures and periods for doubling +(the extremes whereof we have demonstrated to be real and true) +it is impossible to solve what is written in the Holy Scriptures +and other authentic books. For if we pitch upon any one +number throughout for this purpose, 150 years is the fittest of +all round numbers; according to which there would have been but +512 souls in the whole world in Moses’ time (being 800 +years after the Flood), when 603,000 Israelites of above twenty +years old (besides those of other ages, tribes, and nations) were +found upon an exact survey appointed by God, whereas our table +makes 12,000,000. And there would have been about 8,000 in +David’s time, when were found 1,100,000, of above twenty +years old (besides others, as aforesaid) in Israel, upon the +survey instigated by Satan, whereas our table makes +32,000,000. And there would have been but a quarter of a +million about the birth of Christ, or Augustus’s time, when +Rome and the Roman Empire were so great, whereas our table makes +100,000,000. Where note, that the Israelites in about 500 +years, between their coming out of Egypt to David’s reign, +increased from 603,000 to 1,100,000.</p> +<p>On the other hand, if we pitch upon a less number, as 100 +years, the world would have been over-peopled 700 years +since. Wherefore no one number will solve the phenomena, +and therefore we have supposed several, in order to make the +following table, which we again desire historians to correct, +according to what they find in antiquity concerning the number of +the people in each age and country of the world.</p> +<p>We did (not long since) assist a worthy divine, writing +against some sceptics, who would have baffled our belief of the +resurrection, by saying, that the whole globe of the earth could +not furnish matter enough for all the bodies that must rise at +the last day, much less would the surface of the earth furnish +footing for so vast a number; whereas we did (by the method afore +mentioned) assert the number of men now living, and also of those +that had died since the beginning of the world, and did withal +show, that half the island of Ireland would afford them all, not +only footing to stand upon, but graves to lie down in, for that +whole number; and that two mountains in that country were as +weighty as all the bodies that had ever been from the beginning +of the world to the year 1680, when this dispute happened. +For which purpose I have digressed from my intended purpose to +insert this matter, intending to prosecute this hint further upon +some more proper occasion.</p> +<p style="text-align: center"><span class="smcap">A table showing +how the People might have Doubled in the several Ages of the +World</span>.</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Periods of doubling</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center"><span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span>, after the Flood.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Persons.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>In 10 years</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1</p> +</td> +<td><p>8</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td><p>16</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">20</p> +</td> +<td><p>32</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">30</p> +</td> +<td><p>64</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">40</p> +</td> +<td><p>128</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">50</p> +</td> +<td><p>256</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">60</p> +</td> +<td><p>512</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">70</p> +</td> +<td><p>1,024</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">80</p> +</td> +<td><p>2,048</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">90</p> +</td> +<td><p>4,096</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">100</p> +</td> +<td><p>8,000 and more.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">120</p> +</td> +<td><p>16,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>In 20 years</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">140</p> +</td> +<td><p>32,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>In 30 years</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">170</p> +</td> +<td><p>64,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">200</p> +</td> +<td><p>128,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>40</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">240</p> +</td> +<td><p>256,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>50</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">290</p> +</td> +<td><p>512,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>60</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">350</p> +</td> +<td><p>1,000,000 and more.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>70</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">420</p> +</td> +<td><p>2,000,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>100</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">520</p> +</td> +<td><p>4,000,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>190</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">710</p> +</td> +<td><p>8,000,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>290</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>16,000,000 in Moses’ time.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>400</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,400</p> +</td> +<td><p>32,000,000 about David’s time.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>550</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,950</p> +</td> +<td><p>64,000,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>750</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,700</p> +</td> +<td><p>128,000,000 about the birth of Christ.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>1,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,700</p> +</td> +<td><p>256,000,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">300</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>In 300 / 1,200</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>320,000,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>It is here to be noted, that in this table we have assigned a +different number of years for the time of doubling the people in +the several ages of the world, and might have done the same for +the several countries of the world, and therefore the said +several periods assigned to the whole world in the lump may well +enough consist with the 360 years especially assigned to England, +between this day and the Norman Conquest; and the said 360 years +may well enough serve for a supposition between this time and +that of the world’s being fully peopled; nor do we lay any +stress upon one or the other in this disquisition concerning the +growth of the city of London.</p> +<p>We have spoken of the growth of London, with the measures and +periods thereof; we come next to the causes and consequences of +the same.</p> +<p>The causes of its growth from 1642 to 1682 may be said to have +been as follows, viz.:—From 1642 to 1650, that men came out +of the country to London, to shelter themselves from the outrages +of the Civil Wars during that time; from 1650 to 1660, the royal +party came to London for their more private and inexpensive +living; from 1660 to 1670, the king’s friends and party +came to receive his favours after his happy restoration; from +1670 to 1680, the frequency of plots and parliaments might bring +extraordinary numbers to the city; but what reasons to assign for +the like increase from 1604 to 1642 I know not, unless I should +pick out some remarkable accident happening in each part of the +said period, and make that to be the cause of this increase (as +vulgar people make the cause of every man’s sickness to be +what he did last eat), wherefore, rather than so to say +<i>quidlibet de quolibet</i>, I had rather quit even what I have +above said to be the cause of London’s increase from 1642 +to 1682, and put the whole upon some natural and spontaneous +benefits and advantages that men find by living in great more +than in small societies, and shall therefore seek for the +antecedent causes of this growth in the consequences of the like, +considered in greater characters and proportions.</p> +<p>Now, whereas in arithmetic, out of two false positions the +truth is extracted, so I hope out of two extravagant contrary +suppositions to draw forth some solid and consistent conclusion, +viz.:—</p> +<p>The first of the said two suppositions is, that the city of +London is seven times bigger than now, and that the inhabitants +of it are 4,690,000 people, and that in all the other cities, +ports, towns, and villages, there are but 2,710,000 more.</p> +<p>The other supposition is, that the city of London is but a +seventh part of its present bigness, and that the inhabitants of +it are but 96,000, and that the rest of the inhabitants (being +7,304,000) do cohabit thus: 104,000 of them in small cities and +towns, and that the rest, being 7,200,000, do inhabit in houses +not contiguous to one another, viz., in 1,200,000 houses, having +about twenty-four acres of ground belonging to each of them, +accounting about 28,000,000 of acres to be in the whole territory +of England, Wales, and the adjacent islands, which any man that +pleases may examine upon a good map.</p> +<p>Now, the question is, in which of these two imaginary states +would be the most convenient, commodious, and comfortable +livings?</p> +<p>But this general question divides itself into the several +questions, relating to the following particulars, +viz.:—</p> +<p>1. For the defence of the kingdom against foreign +powers.</p> +<p>2. For preventing the intestine commotions of parties +and factions.</p> +<p>3. For peace and uniformity in religion.</p> +<p>4. For the administration of justice.</p> +<p>5. For the proportionably taxing of the people, and easy +levying the same.</p> +<p>6. For gain by foreign commerce.</p> +<p>7. For husbandry, manufacture, and for arts of delight +and ornament.</p> +<p>8. For lessening the fatigue of carriages and +travelling.</p> +<p>9. For preventing beggars and thieves.</p> +<p>10. For the advancement and propagation of useful +learning.</p> +<p>11. For increasing the people by generation.</p> +<p>12. For preventing the mischiefs of plagues and +contagious. And withal, which of the said two states is +most practicable and natural, for in these and the like +particulars do lie the tests and touchstones of all proposals +that can be made for the public good.</p> +<p>First, as to practicable, we say, that although our said +extravagant proposals are both in nature possible, yet it is not +obvious to every man to conceive how London, now seven times +bigger than in the beginning of Queen Elizabeth’s reign, +should be seven times bigger than now it is, and forty-nine times +bigger than <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1560. To +which I say, 1. That the present city of London stands upon +less than 2,500 acres of ground, wherefore a city seven times as +large may stand upon 10,500 acres, which is about equivalent to a +circle of four miles and a half in diameter, and less than +fifteen miles in circumference. 2. That a circle of ground +of thirty-five miles semidiameter will bear corn, garden-stuff, +fruits, hay, and timber, for the 4,690,000 inhabitants of the +said city and circle, so as nothing of that kind need be brought +from above thirty-five miles distance from the said city; for the +number of acres within the said circle, reckoning two acres +sufficient to furnish bread and drink-corn for every head, and +two acres will furnish hay for every necessary horse; and that +the trees which may grow in the hedgerows of the fields within +the said circle may furnish timber for 600,000 houses. 3. +That all live cattle and great animals can bring themselves to +the said city; and that fish can be brought from the Land’s +End and Berwick as easily as now. 4. Of coals there is no +doubt: and for water, 20s. per family (or £600,000 per +annum in the whole) will serve this city, especially with the +help of the New River. But if by practicable be understood +that the present state may be suddenly changed into either of the +two above-mentioned proposals, I think it is not +practicable. Wherefore the true question is, unto or +towards which of the said two extravagant states it is best to +bend the present state by degrees, viz., Whether it be best to +lessen or enlarge the present city? In order whereunto, we +inquire (as to the first question) which state is most defensible +against foreign powers, saying, that if the above-mentioned +housing, and a border of ground, of three-quarters of a mile +broad, were encompassed with a wall and ditch of twenty miles +about (as strong as any in Europe, which would cost but a +million, or about a penny in the shilling of the house-rent for +one year) what foreign prince could bring an army from beyond +seas, able to beat—1. Our sea-forces, and next with horse +harassed at sea, to resist all the fresh horse that England could +make, and then conquer above a million of men, well united, +disciplined, and guarded within such a wall, distant everywhere +three-quarters of a mile from the housing, to elude the granadoes +and great shot of the enemy? 2. As to intestine parties and +factions, I suppose that 4,690,000 people united within this +great city could easily govern half the said number scattered +without it, and that a few men in arms within the said city and +wall could also easily govern the rest unarmed, or armed in such +a manner as the Sovereign shall think fit. 3. As to +uniformity in religion, I conceive, that if St. Martin’s +parish (may as it doth) consist of about 40,000 souls, that this +great city also may as well be made but as one parish, with seven +times 130 chapels, in which might not only be an uniformity of +common prayer, but in preaching also; for that a thousand copies +of one judiciously and authentically composed sermon might be +every week read in each of the said chapels without any +subsequent repetition of the same, as in the case of +homilies. Whereas in England (wherein are near 10,000 +parishes, in each of which upon Sundays, holy days, and other +extraordinary occasions there should be about 100 sermons annum, +making about a million of sermons per annum in the whole) it were +a miracle, if a million of sermons composed by so many men, and +of so many minds and methods, should produce uniformity upon the +discomposed understandings of about 8,000,000 of hearers.</p> +<p>4. As to the administration of justice. If in this +great city shall dwell the owners of all the lands, and other +valuable things in England; if within it shall be all the +traders, and all the courts, offices, records, juries, and +witnesses; then it follows that justice may be done with speed +and ease.</p> +<p>5. As to the equality and easy levying of taxes. +It is too certain that London hath at some time paid near half +the excise of England, and that the people pay thrice as much for +the hearths in London as those in the country, in proportion to +the people of each, and that the charge of collecting these +duties have been about a sixth part of the duty itself. Now +in this great city the excise alone according to the present laws +would not only be double to the whole kingdom, but also more +equal. And the duty of hearths of the said city would +exceed the present proceed of the whole kingdom. And as for +the customs we mention them not at present.</p> +<p>6. Whether more would be gained by foreign +commerce? The gain which England makes by lead, coals, the +freight of shipping, &c., may be the same, for aught I see, +in both cases. But the gain which is made by manufactures +will be greater as the manufacture itself is greater and +better. For in so vast a city manufactures will beget one +another, and each manufacture will be divided into as many parts +as possible, whereby the work of each artisan will be simple and +easy. As, for example, in the making of a watch, if one man +shall make the wheels, another the spring, another shall engrave +the dial-plate, and another shall make the cases, then the watch +will be better and cheaper than if the whole work be put upon any +one man. And we also see that in towns, and in the streets +of a great town, where all the inhabitants are almost of one +trade, the commodity peculiar to those places is made better and +cheaper than elsewhere. Moreover, when all sorts of +manufactures are made in one place, there every ship that goeth +forth can suddenly have its loading of so many several +particulars and species as the port whereunto she is bound can +take off. Again, when the several manufactures are made in +one place, and shipped off in another, the carriage, postage, and +travelling charges, will enhance the price of such manufacture, +and lessen the gain upon foreign commerce. And lastly, when +the imported goods are spent in the port itself, where they are +landed, the carriage of the same into other places will create no +further charge upon such commodity; all which particulars tend to +the greater gain by foreign commerce.</p> +<p>7. As for arts of delight and ornament. They are +best promoted by the greatest number of emulators. And it +is more likely that one ingenious curious man may rather be found +out amongst 4,000,000 than 400 persons. But as for +husbandry, viz., tillage and pasturage, I see no reason, but the +second state (when each family is charged with the culture of +about twenty-four acres) will best promote the same.</p> +<p>8. As for lessening the fatigue of carriage and +travelling.</p> +<p>The thing speaks for itself, for if all the men of business, +and all artisans, do live within five miles of each other, and if +those who live without the great city do spend only such +commodities as grow where they live, then the charge of carriage +and travelling could be little.</p> +<p>9. As to the preventing of beggars and thieves.</p> +<p>I do not find how the differences of the said two states +should make much difference in this particular; for impotents +(which are but one in about 600) ought to be maintained by the +rest. 2. Those who are unable to work, through the evil +education of their parents, ought (for aught I know) to be +maintained by their nearest kindred, as a just punishment upon +them. 3. And those who cannot find work (though able and +willing to perform it), by reason of the unequal application of +hands to lands, ought to be provided for by the magistrate and +landlord till that can be done; for there need be no beggars in +countries where there are many acres of unimproved improvable +land to every head, as there are in England. As for +thieves, they are for the most part begotten from the same cause; +for it is against Nature that any man should venture his life, +limb, or liberty, for a wretched livelihood, whereas moderate +labour will produce a better. But of this see Sir Thomas +More, in the first part of his “Utopia.”</p> +<p>10. As to the propagation and improvement of useful +learning.</p> +<p>The same may be said concerning it as was above said +concerning manufactures, and the arts of delight and ornaments; +for in the great vast city there can be no so odd a conceit or +design whereunto some assistance may not be found, which in the +thin, scattered way of habitation may not be.</p> +<p>11. As for the increase of people by generation. I +see no great difference from either of the two states, for the +same may be hindered or promoted in either from the same +causes.</p> +<p>12. As to the plague.</p> +<p>It is to be remembered that one time with another a plague +happeneth in London once in twenty years, or thereabouts; for in +the last hundred years, between the years 1582 and 1682, there +have been five great plagues—viz., <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1592, 1603, 1625, 1636, and +1665. And it is also to be remembered that the plagues of +London do commonly kill one-fifth part of the inhabitants. +Now if the whole people of England do double but in 360 years, +then the annual increase of the same is but 20,000, and in twenty +years 400,000. But if in the city of London there should be +2,000,000 of people (as there will be about sixty years hence), +then the plague (killing one-fifth of them, namely, 400,000 once +in twenty years) will destroy as many in one year as the whole +nation can re-furnish in twenty; and consequently the people of +the nation shall never increase. But if the people of +London shall be above 4,000,000 (as in the first of our two +extravagant suppositions is premised), then the people of the +whole nation shall lessen above 20,000 per annum. So as if +people be worth £70 per head (as hath elsewhere been +shown), then the said greatness of the city will be a damage to +itself and the whole nation of £1,400,000 per annum, and so +<i>pro rata</i> for a greater or lesser number; wherefore to +determine which of the two states is best—that is to say, +towards which of the said two states authority should bend the +present state, a just balance ought to be made between the +disadvantages from the plague, with the advantages accruing from +the other particulars above mentioned, unto which balance a more +exact account of the people, and a better rule for the measure of +its growth is necessary than what we have here given, or are yet +able to lay down.</p> +<h3>POSTSCRIPT.</h3> +<p><span class="smcap">It</span> was not very pertinent to a +discourse concerning the growth of the city of London to thrust +in considerations of the time when the whole world will be fully +peopled; and how to justify the Scriptures concerning the number +of people mentioned in them; and concerning the number of the +quick and the dead that may rise at the last day, &c. +Nevertheless, since some friends, liking the said digressions and +impertinences (perhaps as sauce to a dry discourse) have desired +that the same might be explained and made out, I, therefore, say +as followeth:—</p> +<p>1. If the number of acres in the habitable part of the +earth be under 50,000,000,000; if 20,000,000,000 of people are +more than the said number of acres will feed (few or no countries +being so fully peopled), and for that in six doublings (which +will be in 2,000 years) the present 320,000,000 will exceed the +said 20,000,000,000.</p> +<p>2. That the number of all those who have died since the +Flood is the sum of all the products made by multiplying the +number of the doubling periods mentioned in the first column of +the last table, by the number of people respectively affixed to +them in the third column of the same table, the said sum being +divided by 40 (one dying out of 40 per annum out of the whole +mass of mankind), which quotient is 12,570,000,000; whereunto may +be added, for those that died before the Flood, enough to make +the last-mentioned number 20,000,000,000, as the full number of +all that died from the beginning of the world to the year 1682, +unto which, if 320,000,000, the number of those who are now +alive, be added, the total of the quick and the dead will amount +but unto one fifth part of the graves which the surface of +Ireland will afford, without ever putting two bodies into any one +grave; for there be in Ireland 28,000 square English miles, each +whereof will afford about 4,000,000 of graves, and consequently +above 114,000,000,000 of graves, viz., about five times the +number of the quick and the dead which should arise at the last +day, in case the same had been in the year 1682.</p> +<p>3. Now, if there may be place for five times as many +graves in Ireland as are sufficient for all that ever died, and +if the earth of one grave weigh five times as much as the body +interred therein, then a turf less than a foot thick pared off +from a fifth part of the surface of Ireland, will be equivalent +in bulk and weight to all the bodies that ever were buried, and +may serve as well for that purpose as the two mountains +aforementioned in the body of this discourse. From all +which it is plain how madly they were mistaken who did so +petulantly vilify what the Holy Scriptures have delivered.</p> +<h2>FURTHER OBSERVATION UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS;</h2> +<p style="text-align: center"><i>Or</i>, <i>Accounts of the +Houses</i>, <i>Hearths</i>, <i>Baptisms</i>, <i>and Burials in +that City</i>.</p> +<h3>THE STATIONER TO THE READER.</h3> +<p>I <span class="smcap">have</span> not thought fit to make any +alteration of the first edition, but have only added a new table, +with observation upon it, placing the same in the front of what +was before, which, perhaps, might have been as well placed after +the like table at the eighth page of the first edition.</p> + +<div class="gapshortline"> </div> +<p style="text-align: center"><span class="smcap">Dublin</span>, +1682.</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p>Parishes.</p> +</td> +<td><p>Houses.</p> +</td> +<td><p>Fireplaces.</p> +</td> +<td><p>Baptised.</p> +</td> +<td><p>Buried.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. James’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">272</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">836 }</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">122</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">306</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Katherine’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">540</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,198 }</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Nicholas Without and St. Patrick’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,064</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4,082</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">145</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">414</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Bridget’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">395</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,903</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">68</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">149</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Audone’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">276</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,510</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">56</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">164</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Michael’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">174</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">884</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">34</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">50</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. John’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">302</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,636</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">74</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">101</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Nicholas Within and Christ Church Lib.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">153</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">902</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">26</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">52</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Warburgh’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">240</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,638</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">45</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">105</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Michan’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">938</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,516</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">124</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">389</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Andrew’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">864</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,638</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">131</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">300</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Kevin’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">554</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,120 }</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">87</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">233</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Donnybrook</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">253</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">506 }</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,025</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">25,369</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">912</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,263</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>The table hath been made for the year 1682, wherein is to be +noted—</p> +<p>1. That the houses which <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1671 were but 3,850 are, <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1682, 6,025; but whether this +difference is caused by the real increase of housing, or by fraud +and defect in the former accounts, is left to +consideration. For the burials of people have increased but +from 1,696 to 2,263, according to which proportion the 3,850 +houses <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1671 should <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1682 have been but 5,143, wherefore +some fault may be suspected as aforesaid, when farming the +hearth-money was in agitation.</p> +<p>2. The hearths have increased according to the burials, +and one-third of the said increase more, viz., the burials <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1671 were 1,696, the one-third +whereof is 563, which put together makes 2,259, which is near the +number of burials <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1682. +But the hearths <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1671 were +17,500, whereof the one-third is 5,833, making in all but 23,333; +whereas the whole hearths <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1682 +were 25,369, viz., one-third and better of the said 5,833 +more.</p> +<p>3. The housing were <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> +1671 but 3,850, which if they had increased <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1682 but according to the burials, +they had been but 5,143, or, according to the hearths, had been +but 5,488, whereas they appear 6,025, increasing double to the +hearths. So as it is likely there hath been some error in +the said account of the housing, unless the new housing be very +small, and have but one chimney apiece, and that one-fourth part +of them are untenanted. On the other hand, it is more +likely that when 1,696 died per annum there were near 6,000; for +6,000 houses at 8 inhabitants per house, would make the number of +the people to be 48,000, and the number of 1,696 that died +according to the rule of one out of 30, would have made the +number of inhabitants about 50,000: for which reason I continue +to believe there was some error in the account of 3,850 houses as +aforesaid, and the rather because there is no ground from +experience to think that in eleven years the houses in Dublin +have increased from 3,850 to 6,025.</p> +<p>Moreover, I rather think that the number of 6,025 is yet +short, because that number at 8 heads per house makes the +inhabitants to be but 48,200; whereas the 2,263 who died in the +year 1682, according to the aforementioned rule of one dying out +of 30 makes the number of people to be 67,890, the medium betwixt +which number and 48,200 is 58,045, which is the best estimate I +can make of that matter, which I hope authority will ere long +rectify, by direct and exact inquiries.</p> +<p>4. As to the births, we say that <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1640, 1641, and 1642, at London, +just before the troubles in religion began, the births were +five-sixths of the burials, by reason I suppose of the +greaterness of families in London above the country, and the +fewer breeders, and not for want of registering. Wherefore, +deducting one-sixth of 2,263, which is 377, there remains 1,886 +for the probable number of births in Dublin for the year 1682; +whereas but 912 are represented to have been christened in that +year, though 1,023 were christened <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1671, when there died but 1,696, +which decreasing of the christening, and increasing of the +burials, shows the increase of non-registering in the legal +books, which must be the increase of Roman Catholics at +Dublin.</p> +<p>The scope of this whole paper therefore is, that the people of +Dublin are rather 58,000 than 32,000, and that the dissenters, +who do not register their baptisms, have increased from 391 to +974: but of dissenters, none have increased but the Roman +Catholics, whose numbers have increased from about two to five in +the said years. The exacter knowledge whereof may also be +better had from direct inquiries.</p> +<h2>OBSERVATIONS UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS OF MORTALITY, 1681: AND +THE STATE OF THAT CITY.</h2> +<p><span class="smcap">The</span> observations upon the London +bills of mortality have been a new light to the world, and the +like observation upon those of Dublin may serve as snuffers to +make the same candle burn clearer.</p> +<p>The London observations flowed from bills regularly kept for +near one hundred years, but these are squeezed out of six +straggling London bills, out of fifteen Dublin bills, and from a +note of the families and hearths in each parish of Dublin, which +are all digested into the one table or sheet annexed, consisting +of three parts, marked A, B, C; being indeed the A, B, C of +public economy, and even of that policy which tends to peace and +plenty.</p> +<h4><i>Observations upon the Table A</i>.</h4> +<p>1. The total of the burials in London (for the said six +straggling years mentioned in the Table A) is 120,170, whereof +the medium or sixth part is 20,028, and exceeds the burials of +Paris, as may appear by the late bills of that city.</p> +<p>2. The births, for the same time, are 73,683, the medium +or sixth part whereof is 12,280, which is about five-eighth parts +of the burials, and shows that London would in time decrease +quite away, were it not supplied out of the country, where are +about five births for four burials, the proportion of breeders in +the country being greater than in the city.</p> +<p>3. The burials in Dublin for the said six years were +9,865, the sixth part or medium whereof is 1,644, which is about +the twelfth part of the London burials, and about a fifth part +over. So as the people of London do hereby seem to be above +twelve times as many as those of Dublin.</p> +<p>4. The births in the same time at Dublin are 6,157, the +sixth part or medium whereof is 1,026, which is also about +five-eighth parts of the 1,644 burials, which shows that the +proportion between burials and births are alike at London and +Dublin, and that the accounts are kept alike, and consequently +are likely to be true, there being no confederacy for that +purpose; which, if they be true, we then say—</p> +<p>5. That the births are the best way (till the accounts +of the people shall be purposely taken) whereby to judge of the +increase and decrease of people, that of burials being subject to +more contingencies and variety of causes.</p> +<p>6. If births be as yet the measure of the people, and +that the births (as has been shown) are as five to eight, then +eight-fifths of the births is the number of the burials, where +the year was not considerable for extraordinary sickness or +salubrity, and is the rule whereby to measure the same. As +for example, the medium of births in Dublin was 1,026, the +eight-fifths whereof is 1,641, but the real burials were 1,644; +so as in the said years they differed little from the 1,641, +which was the standard of health, and consequently the years +1680, 1674, and 1668 were sickly years, more or less, as they +exceeded the said number, 1,641; and the rest were healthful +years, more or less, as they fell short of the same number. +But the city was more or less populous, as the births differed +from the number 1,026, viz., populous in the years 1680, 1679, +1678, and 1668, for other causes of this difference in births are +very occult and uncertain.</p> +<p>7. What hath been said of Dublin, serves also for +London.</p> +<p>8. It hath already been observed by the London bills +that there are more males than females. It is to be further +noted, that in these six London bills, also, there is not one +instance either in the births or burials to the contrary.</p> +<p>9. It hath been formerly observed that in the years +wherein most die fewest are born, and <i>vice versa</i>. +The same may be further observed in males and females, viz., when +fewest males are born then most die: for here the males died as +twelve to eleven, which is above the mean proportion of fourteen +to thirteen, but were born but as nineteen to eighteen, which is +below the same.</p> +<h4><i>Observations upon the Table B</i>.</h4> +<p>1. From the Table B it appears that the medium of the +fifteen years’ burials (being 24,199) is 1,613, whereas the +medium of the other six years in the Table A was 1,644, and that +the medium of the fifteen years’ births (being in all +14,765) is 984, whereas the medium of the said other six years +was 1,026. That is to say, there were both fewer births and +burials in these fifteen years than in the other six years, which +is a probable sign that at a medium there were fewer people +also.</p> +<p>2. The medium of births for the fifteen years being 984, +whereof eight-fifths (being 1,576) is the standard of health for +the said fifteen years; and the triple of the said 1,576 being +4,728, is the standard for each of the ternaries of the fifteen +years within the said table.</p> +<p>3. That 2,952, the triple of 984 births, is for each +ternary the standard of people’s increase and decrease from +the year 1666 to 1680 inclusive, viz., the people increased in +the second ternary, and decreased from the same in the third and +fourth ternaries, but re-increased in the fifth ternary beyond +any other.</p> +<p>4. That the last ternary was withal very healthful, the +burials being but 4,624, viz., below 4,728, the standard.</p> +<p>5. That according to this proportion of increase, the +housing of Dublin have probably increased also.</p> +<h4><i>Observations upon the Table C</i>.</h4> +<p>1. First, from the Table C it appears, 1. That the +housing of Dublin is such, as that there are not five hearths in +each house one with another, but nearer five than four.</p> +<p>2. That in St. Warburgh’s parish are near six +hearths to a house. In St. John’s five. In St. +Michael’s above five. In St. Nicholas Within above +six. In Christ Church above seven. In St. +James’s and St. Katherine’s, and in St. +Michan’s, not four. In St. Kevin’s about +four.</p> +<p>3. That in St. James’s, St. Michan’s, St. +Bride’s, St. Warburgh’s, St. Andrew’s, St. +Michael’s, and St. Patrick’s, all the christenings +were but 550, and the burials 1,055, viz., near double; and that +in the rest of the parishes the christenings were five, and the +burials seven, viz., as 457 to 634. Now whether the cause +of this difference was negligence in accounts, or the greaterness +of the families, &c., is worth inquiring.</p> +<p>4. It is hard to say in what order (as to greatness) +these parishes ought to stand, some having most families, some +most hearths, some most births, and others most burials. +Some parishes exceeding the rest in two, others in three of the +said four particulars, but none in all four. Wherefore this +table ranketh them according to the plurality of the said four +particulars wherein each excelleth the other.</p> +<p>5. The London observations reckon eight heads in each +family, according to which estimation, there are 32,000 souls in +the 4,000 families of Dublin, which is but half of what most men +imagine, of which but about one sixth part are able to bear arms, +besides the royal regiment.</p> +<p>6. Without the knowledge of the true number of people, +as a principle, the whole scope and use of the keeping bills of +births and burials is impaired; wherefore by laborious +conjectures and calculations to deduce the number of people from +the births and burials, may be ingenious, but very +preposterous.</p> +<p>7. If the number of families in Dublin be about 4,000, +then ten men in one week (at the charge of about £5 +surveying eight families in an hour) may directly, and without +algebra, make an account of the whole people, expressing their +several ages, sex, marriages, title, trade, religion, &c., +and those who survey the hearths, or the constables or the parish +clerks (may, if required) do the same ex officio, and without +other charge, by the command of the chief governor, the diocesan, +or the mayor.</p> +<p>8. The bills of London have since their beginning +admitted several alterations and improvements, and £8 or +£10 per annum surcharge, would make the bills of Dublin to +exceed all others, and become an excellent instrument of +Government. To which purpose the forms for weekly, +quarterly, and yearly bills are humbly recommended, viz.</p> +<h3>TABLE A—YEARLY BILLS OF MORTALITY FOR</h3> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td colspan="4"><p style="text-align: center">LONDON</p> +</td> +<td colspan="4"><p style="text-align: center">DUBLIN</p> +</td> +<td colspan="7"><p style="text-align: center">LONDON</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p><span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span></p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p>Burials</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p>Births</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p>Burials</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p>Births</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p>Male</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p>Female</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p>Male</p> +</td> +<td><p>Female</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1680</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">21,053</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">12,747</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">1,826</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">1,096</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">11,039</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">10,044</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">6,543</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,041</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1679</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">21,730</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">12,288</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">1,397</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">1,061</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">11,154</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">10,576</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">6,247</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,041</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1678</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">20,678</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">12,601</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">1,401</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">1,045</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">10,681</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">9,977</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">6,568</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,033</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1674</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">21,201</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">11,851</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">2,106</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">942</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">11,000</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">10,196</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">6,113</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,738</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1672</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">18,230</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">12,563</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">1,436</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">987</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">9,560</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">8,070</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">6,443</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,120</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1668</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">17,278</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">11,633</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">1,699</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">1,026</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">9,111</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">8,167</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">6,073</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,566</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">120,170</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">73,683</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">9,865</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">6,157</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">62,545</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">57,030</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">37,992</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">35,697</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td colspan="16"><p style="text-align: center">The medium or 6th +part whereof is part whereof is</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">20,028</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">12,280</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">1,644</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">1,026</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">10,424</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">9,505</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">6,332</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">5,949</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<h3>TABLE B.—DUBLIN.</h3> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: center"><span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span></p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Burials.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Births.</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center">In Ternaries of +Years</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1666</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,480</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">952</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4,821</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,979</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1667</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,642</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,001</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1668</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,699</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,026</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1669</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,666</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,353</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,070</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1670</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,713</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,067</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1671</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,974</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,003</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1672</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,436</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">967</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,073</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,842</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1673</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,531</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">933</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1674</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,106</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">942</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1675</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,578</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">823</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4,328</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,672</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1676</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,391</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">952</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1677</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,359</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">897</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1678</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,401</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,045</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4,624</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,202</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1679</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,397</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,061</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1680</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,826</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,096</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">24,199</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">14,765</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">24,199</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">14,765</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td colspan="5"><p style="text-align: center">The medium or 15th +part whereof is</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,613</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">984</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,613</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">984</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<h3>TABLE C.</h3> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: center">THE PARISHES OF DUBLIN</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center"><span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1671.</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center"><span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span>, 1670–71–72 at a +medium</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p>Families</p> +</td> +<td><p>Hearths</p> +</td> +<td><p>Births</p> +</td> +<td><p>Burials</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Katherine’s and St. James’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">661</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,399</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">161</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">290</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Nicholas Without</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">490</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,348</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">207</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">262</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Michan’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">656</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,301</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">127</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">221</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Andrew’s with Donnybrook</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">483</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,123</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">108</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">178</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Bridget’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">416</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,989</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">70</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">100</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. John’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">244</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,337</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">70</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">138</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Warburgh’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">267</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,650</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">54</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">103</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Audaen’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">216</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,081</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">53</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">121</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Michael’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">140</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">793</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">44</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">59</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Kevin’s</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">106</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">433</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">64</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">133</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Nicholas Within</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">93</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">614</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">28</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">34</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Patrick’s Liberties</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">52</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">255</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">21</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">44</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Christ Church and Trinity College, per estimate</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">26</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">197</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">—</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,850</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">17,500</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,013</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,696</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Houses built between 1671 and 1681, per estimate</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">150</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">550</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">18,150</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<h3>A WEEKLY BILL OF MORTALITY FOR THE CITY OF DUBLIN, Ending the +XXX day of XXX 1681. <a name="citation75"></a><a +href="#footnote75" class="citation">[75]</a></h3> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: center">PARISHES’ NAMES.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Births</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Males</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Females</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Burials</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Under 16 years old</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Plague</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Small Pox</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Measles</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Spotted Fever</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Katharine’s and St. James’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Nicholas Without</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Michan’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Andrew’s with Donnybrook</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Bridget’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. John’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Warburgh’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Audaen’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Michael’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Kevin’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Nicholas Within</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Patrick’s Liberties</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Christ Church and Trinity College</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Totals</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<h3>A QUARTERLY BILL OF MORTALITY, Beginning XXX and ending XXX +for the City of DUBLIN <a name="citation76"></a><a +href="#footnote76" class="citation">[76]</a></h3> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p>PARISHES’ NAMES.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Births 1.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Marriages 2.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Buried under 16 years olds</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Buried above 60 years old</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Measles, Spotted Fever, Small +Pox, Plague</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Consumption, Dropsy, Gout, +Stone</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Fever, Pleurisy, Quinsy, Sudden +Death</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Aged above 70 years old</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Infants under 2 years old</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">All other Casualties</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Katharine’s and St. James’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Nicholas Without</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Michan’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Andrew’s with Donnybrook</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Bridget’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. John’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Warburgh’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Audaen’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Michael’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Kevin’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Nicholas Within</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Patrick’s Liberties</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Christ Church and Trinity College</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Totals</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> + +<div class="gapspace"> </div> +<h3>AN ACCOUNT OF THE PEOPLE OF DUBLIN FOR ONE YEAR, Ending the +24th of March, 1681. <a name="citation77"></a><a +href="#footnote77" class="citation">[77]</a></h3> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p>PARISHES’ NAMES.</p> +</td> +<td><p>Number of person</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p>Whereof</p> +</td> +<td><p>Married Persons</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p>Persons of</p> +</td> +<td><p>Protestants</p> +</td> +<td><p>Papists</p> +</td> +<td><p>Of all other religions</p> +</td> +<td><p>Births</p> +</td> +<td><p>Burials</p> +</td> +<td><p>Marriages</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p>Males</p> +</td> +<td><p>Females</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p>Under 16 years old</p> +</td> +<td><p>Above 60 years old</p> +</td> +<td colspan="3"><p>of above 16 years old</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Katharine’s and St. James’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Nicholas Without</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Michan’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Andrew’s with Donnybrook</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Bridget’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. John’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Warburgh’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Audaen’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Michael’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Kevin’s</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Nicholas Within</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>St. Patrick’s Liberties</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Christ Church and Trinity College</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Totals</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<h3>CASUALTIES AND DISEASES.</h3> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p>Aged above 70 years</p> +</td> +<td><p>Epilepsy and planet</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Abortive and still-born</p> +</td> +<td><p>Fever and ague</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Childbed women</p> +</td> +<td><p>Pleurisy</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Convulsion</p> +</td> +<td><p>Quinsy</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Teeth</p> +</td> +<td><p>Executed, murdered, drowned</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Worms</p> +</td> +<td><p>Plague and spotted fever</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Gout and sciatica</p> +</td> +<td><p>Griping of the guts</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Stone</p> +</td> +<td><p>Scouring, vomiting bleeding</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Palsy</p> +</td> +<td><p>Small pox</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Consumption and French pox</p> +</td> +<td><p>Measles</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Dropsy and tympany</p> +</td> +<td><p>Neither of all the other sorts</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Rickets and livergrown</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Headache and megrim</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<h3>A POSTSCRIPT TO THE STATIONER.</h3> +<p><span class="smcap">Whereas</span> you complain that these +observations make no sufficient bulk, I could answer you that I +wish the bulk of all books were less; but do nevertheless comply +with you in adding what follows, viz.:</p> +<p>1. That the parishes of Dublin are very unequal; some +having in them above 600 families, and others under thirty.</p> +<p>2. That thirteen parishes are too few for 4,000 +families; the middling parishes of London containing 120 +families; according to which rate there should be about +thirty-three parishes in Dublin.</p> +<p>3. It is said that there are 84,000 houses or families +in London, which is twenty-one times more than are in Dublin, and +yet the births and burials of London are but twelve times those +of Dublin, which shows that the inhabitants of Dublin are more +crowded and straitened in their housing than those of London; and +consequently that to increase the buildings of Dublin will make +that city more conformable to London.</p> +<p>4. I shall also add some reasons for altering the +present forms of the Dublin bills of mortality, according to what +hath been here recommended—viz.:</p> +<p>1. We give the distinctions of males and females in the +births only; for that the burials must, at one time or another, +be in the same proportion with the births.</p> +<p>2. We do in the weekly and quarterly bills propose that +notice be taken in the burials of what numbers die above sixty +and seventy, and what under sixteen, six, and two years old, +foreseeing good uses to be made of that distinction.</p> +<p>3. We do in the yearly bill reduce the casualties to +about twenty-four, being such as may be discerned by common +sense, and without art, conceiving that more will but perplex and +imbroil the account. And in the quarterly bills we reduce +the diseases to three heads—viz., contagious, acute, and +chronical, applying this distinction to parishes, in order to +know how the different situation, soil, and way of living in each +parish doth dispose men to each of the said three species; and in +the weekly bills we take notice not only of the plague, but of +the other contagious diseases in each parish, that strangers and +fearful persons may thereby know how to dispose of +themselves.</p> +<p>4. We mention the number of the people, as the +fundamental term in all our proportions; and without which all +the rest will be almost fruitless.</p> +<p>5. We mention the number of marriages made in every +quarter, and in every year, as also the proportion which married +persons bear to the whole, expecting in such observations to read +the improvement of the nation.</p> +<p>6. As for religions, we reduce them to three—viz.: +(1) those who have the Pope of Rome for their head; (2) who are +governed by the laws of their country; (3) those who rely +respectively upon their own private judgments. Now, whether +these distinctions should be taken notice of or not, we do but +faintly recommend, seeing many reasons <i>pro</i> and <i>con</i> +for the same; and, therefore, although we have mentioned it as a +matter fit to be considered, yet we humbly leave it to +authority.</p> +<h2>TWO ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC,</h2> +<p style="text-align: center"><i>Concerning the People</i>, +<i>Housing</i>, <i>Hospitals</i>, <i>&c.</i>, <i>of London +and Paris</i>.</p> +<h3>TO THE KING’S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY.</h3> +<p>I <span class="smcap">do</span> presume, in a very small +paper, to show your Majesty that your City of London seems more +considerable than the two best cities of the French monarchy, and +for aught I can find, greater than any other of the universe, +which because I can say without flattery, and by such +demonstration as your Majesty can examine, I humbly pray your +Majesty to accept from</p> +<p style="text-align: center">Your Majesty’s</p> +<p style="text-align: right">Most humble, loyal, and obedient +subject,<br /> +<span class="smcap">William Petty</span>.</p> +<h3>AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC</h3> +<p><i>Tending to prove that London hath more people and housing +than the cities of Paris and Rouen put together</i>, <i>and is +also more considerable in several other respects</i>.</p> +<p>1. <span class="smcap">The</span> medium of the burials +at London in the three last years—viz., 1683, 1684, and +1685, wherein there was no extraordinary sickness, and wherein +the christenings do correspond in their ordinary proportions with +the burials and christenings of each year one with another, was +22,337, and the like medium of burials for the three last Paris +bills we could procure—viz., for the years 1682, 1683, and +1684 (whereof the last as appears by the christenings to have +been very sickly), is 19,887.</p> +<p>2. The city of Bristol in England appears to be by good +estimate of its trade and customs as great as Rouen in France, +and the city of Dublin in Ireland appears to have more chimneys +than Bristol, and consequently more people, and the burials in +Dublin were, <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1682 (being a +sickly year) but 2,263.</p> +<p>3. Now the burials of Paris (being 19,887) being added +to the burials of Dublin (supposed more than at Rouen) being +2,263, makes but 22,150, whereas the burials of London were 187 +more, or 22,337, or as about 6 to 7.</p> +<p>4. If those who die unnecessarily, and by miscarriage in +L’Hôtel Dieu in Paris (being above 3,000), as hath +been elsewhere shown, or any part thereof, should be subtracted +out of the Paris burials aforementioned, then our assertion will +be stronger, and more proportionable to what follows concerning +the housing of those cities, viz.:</p> +<p>5. There were burnt at London, <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1666, above 13,000 houses, which +being but a fifth part of the whole, the whole number of houses +in the said year were above 65,000; and whereas the ordinary +burials of London have increased between the years 1666 and 1686, +above one-third the total of the houses at London, <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1686, must be about 87,000, which +<span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1682, appeared by account to +have been 84,000.</p> +<p>6. Monsieur Moreri, the great French author of the late +geographical dictionaries, who makes Paris the greatest city in +the world, doth reckon but 50,000 houses in the same, and other +authors and knowing men much less; nor are there full 7,000 +houses in the city of Dublin, so as if the 50,000 houses of +Paris, and the 7,000 houses in the city of Dublin were added +together, the total is but 57,000 houses, whereas those of London +are 87,000 as aforesaid, or as 6 to 9.</p> +<p>7. As for the shipping and foreign commerce of London, +the common sense of all men doth judge it to be far greater than +that of Paris and Rouen put together.</p> +<p>8. As to the wealth and gain accruing to the inhabitants +of London and Paris by law-suits (or <i>La chicane</i>) I only +say that the courts of London extend to all England and Wales, +and affect seven millions of people, whereas those of Paris do +not extend near so far. Moreover, there is no palpable +conspicuous argument at Paris for the number and wealth of +lawyers like the buildings and chambers in the two Temples, +Lincoln’s Inn, Gray’s Inn, Doctors’ Commons, +and the seven other inns in which are chimneys, which are to be +seen at London, besides many lodgings, halls, and offices, +relating to the same.</p> +<p>9. As to the plentiful and easy living of the people we +say,</p> +<p>(a.) That the people of Paris to those of London, being as +about 6 to 7, and the housing of the same as about 6 to 9, we +infer that the people do not live at London so close and crowded +as at Paris, but can afford themselves more room and liberty.</p> +<p>(b.) That at London the hospitals are better and more +desirable than those of Paris, for that in the best at Paris +there die two out of fifteen, whereas at London there die out of +the worst scarce 2 out of 16, and yet but a fiftieth part of the +whole die out of the hospitals at London, and two-fifths, or +twenty times that proportion die out of the Paris hospitals which +are of the same kind; that is to say, the number of those at +London, who choose to lie sick in hospitals rather than in their +own houses, are to the like people of Paris as one to twenty; +which shows the greater poverty or want of means in the people of +Paris than those of London.</p> +<p>(c.) We infer from the premises, viz., the dying scarce two of +sixteen out of the London hospitals, and about two of fifteen in +the best of Paris, to say nothing of L’Hôtel Dieu, +that either the physicians and chirurgeons of London are better +than those of Paris, or that the air of London is more +wholesome.</p> +<p>10. As for the other great cities of the world, if Paris +were the greatest we need say no more in behalf of London. +As for Pekin in China, we have no account fit to reason upon; nor +is there anything in the description of the two late voyages of +the Chinese emperor from that city into East and West Tartary, in +the years 1682 and 1683, which can make us recant what we have +said concerning London. As for Delhi and Agra, belonging to +the Mogul, we find nothing against our position, but much to show +the vast numbers which attend that emperor in his business and +pleasures.</p> +<p>11. We shall conclude with Constantinople and Grand +Cairo; as for Constantinople it hath been said by one who +endeavoured to show the greatness of that city, and the greatness +of the plague which raged in it, that there died 1,500 per diem, +without other circumstances; to which we answer, that in the year +1665 there died in London 1,200 per diem, and it hath been well +proved that the Plague of London never carried away above +one-fifth of the people, whereas it is commonly believed that in +Constantinople, and other eastern cities, and even in Italy and +Spain, that the plague takes away two-fifths, one half, or more; +wherefore where 1,200 is but one-fifth of the people it is +probable that the number was greater, than where 1,500 was +two-fifths or one half, &c.</p> +<p>12. As for Grand Cairo it is reported, that 73,000 died +in ten weeks, or 1,000 per diem, where note, that at Grand Cairo +the plague comes and goes away suddenly, and that the plague +takes away two or three-fifths parts of the people as aforesaid; +so as 73,000 was probably the number of those that died of the +plague in one whole year at Grand Cairo, whereas at London, <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1665, 97,000 were brought to account +to have died in that year. Wherefore it is certain, that +that city wherein 97,000 was but one-fifth of the people, the +number was greater than where 73,000 was two-fifths or the +half.</p> +<p>We therefore conclude, that London hath more people, housing, +shipping, and wealth, than Paris and Rouen put together; and for +aught yet appears, is more considerable than any other city in +the universe, which was propounded to be proved.</p> +<h3>AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC,</h3> +<p><i>Tending to prove that in the hospital called +L’Hôtel Dieu at Paris</i>, <i>there die above 3,000 +per annum by reason of ill accommodation</i>.</p> +<p>1. <span class="smcap">It</span> appears that <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1678 there entered into the Hospital +of La Charité 2,647 souls, of which there died there +within the said year 338, which is above an eighth part of the +said 2,647; and that in the same year there entered into +L’Hôtel Dieu 21,491, and that there died out of that +number 5,630, which is above one quarter, so as about half the +said 5,630, being 2,815, seem to have died for want of as good +usage and accommodation as might have been had at La +Charité.</p> +<p>2. Moreover, in the year 1679 there entered into La +Charité 3,118, of which there died 452, which is above a +seventh part, and in the same year there entered into +L’Hôtel Dieu 28,635, of which there died 8,397; and +in both the said years 1678 and 1679 (being very different in +their degrees of mortality) there entered into +L’Hôtel Dieu 28,635 and 2l,491—in all 50,126, +the medium whereof is 25,063; and there died out of the same in +the said two years, 5,630 and 8,397—in all 14,027, the +medium whereof is 7,013.</p> +<p>3. There entered in the said years into La +Charité 2,647 and 3,118, in all 5,765, the medium whereof +is 2,882, whereof there died 338 and 452, in all 790, the medium +whereof is 395.</p> +<p>4. Now, if there died out of L’Hôtel Dieu +7,013 per annum, and that the proportion of those that died out +of L’Hôtel Dieu is double to those that died out of +La Charité (as by the above numbers it appears to be near +thereabouts), then it follows that half the said numbers of +7,013, being 3,506, did not die by natural necessity, but by the +evil administration of that hospital.</p> +<p>5. This conclusion seemed at the first sight very +strange, and rather to be some mistake or chance than a solid and +real truth; but considering the same matter as it appeared at +London, we were more reconciled to the belief of it, +viz.:—</p> +<p>(<i>a</i>.) In the Hospital of St. Bartholomew in London, +there was sent out and cured in the year 1685, 1,764 persons, and +there died out of the said hospital 252. Moreover, there +were sent out and cured out of St. Thomas’s Hospital 1,523, +and buried, 209—that is to say, there were cured in both +hospitals 3,287, and buried out of both hospitals 461, and +consequently cured and buried 3,748, of which number the 461 +buried is less than an eighth part; whereas at La Charité +the part that died was more than an eighth part; which shows that +out of the most poor and wretched hospitals of London there died +fewer in proportion than out of the best in Paris.</p> +<p>(<i>b</i>.) Furthermore, it hath been above shown that there +died out of La Charité at a medium 395 per annum, and 141 +out of Les Incurables, making in all 536; and that out of St. +Bartholomew’s and St. Thomas’s Hospitals, London, +there died at a medium but 461, of which Les Incurables are part; +which shows that although there be more people in London than in +Paris, yet there went at London not so many people to hospitals +as there did at Paris, although the poorest hospitals at London +were better than the best at Paris; which shows that the poorest +people at London have better accommodation in their own houses +than the best hospital of Paris affordeth.</p> +<p>6. Having proved that there die about 3,506 persons at +Paris unnecessarily, to the damage of France, we come next to +compute the value of the said damage, and of the remedy thereof, +as follows, viz., the value of the said 3,506 at 60 livres +sterling per head, being about the value of Argier slaves (which +is less than the intrinsic value of people at Paris), the whole +loss of the subjects of France in that hospital seems to be 60 +times 3,506 livres sterling per annum, viz., 210,360 livres +sterling, equivalent to about 2,524,320 French livres.</p> +<p>7. It hath appeared that there came into +L’Hôtel Dieu at a medium 25,063 per annum, or 2,089 +<i>per mensem</i>, and that the whole stock of what remained in +the precedent months is at a medium about 2,108 (as may appear by +the third line of the Table No. 5, which shall be shortly +published), viz., the medium of months is 2,410 for the sickly +year 1679, whereunto 1,806 being added as the medium of months +for the year 1678, makes 4,216, the medium whereof is the 2,108 +above mentioned; which number being added to the 2,089 which +entered each month, makes 4,197 for the number of sick which are +supposed to be always in L’Hôtel Dieu one time with +another.</p> +<p>8. Now, if 60 French livres per annum for each of the +said 4,197 sick persons were added to the present ordinary +expense of that hospital (amounting to an addition of 251,820 +livres), it seems that so many lives might be saved as are worth +above ten times that sum, and this by doing a manifest deed of +charity to mankind.</p> +<p><i>Memorandum</i>.—That <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1685, the burials of London were +23,222, and those of Amsterdam 6,245; from whence, and the +difference of air, it is probable that the people of London are +quadruple to those of Amsterdam.</p> +<h2>OBSERVATIONS UPON THE CITIES OF LONDON AND ROME.</h2> +<p>1. <span class="smcap">That</span> before the year 1630 +the christenings at London exceeded the burials of the same, but +about the year 1655 they were scarce half; and now about +two-thirds.</p> +<p>2. Before the restoration of monarchy in England, <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1660, the people of Paris were more +than those of London and Dublin put together, whereas now, the +people of London are more than those of Paris and Rome, or of +Paris and Rouen.</p> +<p>3. <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1665 one fifth +part of the then people of London, or 97,000, died of the plague, +and in the next year, 1666, 13,000 houses, or one fifth part of +all the housing of London, were burnt also.</p> +<p>4. At the birth of Christ old Rome was the greatest city +of the world, and London the greatest at the coronation of King +James II., and near six times as great as the present Rome, +wherein are 119,000 souls besides Jews.</p> +<p>5. In the years of King Charles II.’s death, and +King James II.’s coronation (which were neither of them +remarkable for extraordinary sickliness or healthfulness) the +burials did wonderfully agree, viz., <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1684, they were 23,202, and <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1685, they were 23,222, the medium +whereof is 23,212. And the christenings did very +wonderfully agree also, having been <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1684, 14,702, and <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1685, 14,732, the medium whereof is +14,716, which consistence was never seen before, the said number +of 23,212 burials making the people of London to be 696,360, at +the rate of one dying per annum out of 30.</p> +<p>6. Since the great Fire of London, <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1666, about 7 parts of 15 of the +present vast city hath been new built, and is with its people +increased near one half, and become equal to Paris and Rome put +together, the one being the seat of the great French Monarchy, +and the other of the Papacy.</p> +<h2>FIVE ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC.</h2> +<p>I. Objections from the city of Ray in Persia, and from +Monsier Auzout, against two former essays, answered, and that +London hath as many people as Paris, Rome, and Rouen put +together.</p> +<p>II. A comparison between London and Paris in 14 +particulars.</p> +<p>III. Proofs that at London, within its 134 parishes +named in the bills of mortality, there live about 696,000 +people.</p> +<p>IV. An estimate of the people in London, Paris, +Amsterdam, Venice, Rome, Dublin, Bristol, and Rouen, with several +observations upon the same.</p> +<p>V. Concerning Holland and the rest of the Seven United +Provinces.</p> +<h3>TO THE KING’S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY</h3> +<p><span class="smcap">Sir</span>,</p> +<p><span class="smcap">Your Majesty</span> having graciously +accepted my two late essays, about the cities and hospitals of +London and Paris, as also my observations on Rome and Rouen; I do +(after six months’ waiting for what may be said against my +several doctrines by the able men of Europe) humbly present your +Majesty with a few other papers upon the same subject, to +strengthen, explain, and enlarge the former; hoping by such real +arguments, better to praise and magnify your Majesty, than by any +other the most specious words and eulogies that can be imagined +by</p> +<p style="text-align: center">Your Majesty’s</p> +<p style="text-align: right">Most humble, loyal<br /> +And obedient subject,<br /> +<span class="smcap">William Petty</span>.</p> +<h3>THE FIRST ESSAY.</h3> +<p><span class="smcap">It</span> could not be expected that an +assertion of London’s being bigger than Paris and Rouen, or +than Paris and Rome put together, and bigger than any city of the +world, should escape uncontradicted; and ’tis also expected +that I (if continuing in the same persuasion), should make some +reply to those contradictions. In order whereunto,</p> +<p>I begin with the ingenious author of the +“<i>République des Lettres</i>,” who saith +that Rey in Persia is far bigger than London, for that in the +sixth century of Christianity (I suppose, <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 550 the middle of that century), it +had 15,000, or rather 44,000 mosques or Mahometan temples; to +which I reply, that I hope this objector is but in jest, for that +Mahomet was not born till about the year 570, and had no mosques +till about 50 years after.</p> +<p>In the next place I reply to the excellent Monsieur +Auzout’s “Letters from Rome,” who is content +that London, Westminster, and Southwark may have as many people +as Paris and its suburbs; and but faintly denieth, that all the +housing within the bills may have almost as many people as Paris +and Rouen, but saith that several parishes inserted into these +bills are distant from, and not contiguous with London, and that +Grant so understood it.</p> +<p>To which (as his main if not his only objection) we +answer:—(l) That the London bills appear in Grant’s +book to have been always, since the year 1636; as they now are; +(2) That about fifty years since, three or four parishes, +formerly somewhat distant, were joined by interposed buildings to +the bulk of the city, and therefore then inserted into the bills; +(3) That since fifty years the whole buildings being more than +double have perfected that union, so as there is no house within +the said bills from which one may not call to some other house; +(4) All this is confirmed by authority of the king and city, and +the custom of fifty years; (5) That there are but three parishes +under any colour of this exception which are scarce +one-fifty-second part of the whole.</p> +<p>Upon the whole matter, upon sight of Monsieur Auzout’s +large letter, dated the 19th of November, from Rome, I made +remarks upon every paragraph thereof, but suppressing it (because +it looked like a war against a worthy person with whom I intended +none, whereas, in truth, it was but a reconciling explication of +some doubts) I have chosen the shorter and softer way of +answering Monsieur Auzout as followeth, viz.:—</p> +<p>Concerning the number of people in London, as also in Paris, +Rouen, and Rome, viz.:—</p> +<p>Monsieur Auzout allegeth an authentic account that there are +23,223 houses in Paris, wherein do live about eighty thousand +families, and therefore supposing three and a half families to +live in every of the said houses, one with another, the number of +families will be 81,280; and Monsier Auzout also allowing six +heads to each family, the utmost number of people in Paris, +according to that opinion, will be 487,680.</p> +<p>The medium of the Paris burials was not denied by Monsier +Auzout to be 19,887, nor that there died 3,506 unnecessarily out +of the L’Hôtel Dieu; wherefore deducting the said +last number out of the former, the net standard for burials at +Paris will be 16,381, so, as the number of people there, allowing +but one to die out of thirty (which is more advantageous to Paris +than Monsieur Auzout’s opinion of one to die out of +twenty-five) the number of people at Paris will be 491,430 more +than by Monsier Auzout’s own last-mentioned account +491,430.</p> +<p>And the medium of the said two Paris accounts is 488,055.</p> +<p>The medium of the London burials is really 23,212, which, +multiplied by thirty (as hath been done for Paris), the number of +the people there will be 696,360.</p> +<p>The number of houses at London appears by the register to be +105,315, whereunto adding one-tenth part of the same, or 10,315, +as the least number of double families that can be supposed in +London, the total of families will be 115,840, and allowing six +heads for each family, as was done for Paris, the total of the +people at London will be 695,076.</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p>The medium of the two last London accounts is</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">695,718.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>So, as the people of Paris, according to the above +account, is</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">488,055.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Of Rouen, according to Monsieur Auzout’s utmost +demands</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">80,000.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Of Rome, according to his own report thereof in a former +letter</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">125,000.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Total</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">693,055.</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>So as there are more people at London than at Paris, Rouen, +and Rome by 2,663.</p> +<p>Memorandum.—That the parishes of Islington, Newington, +and Hackney, for which only there is any colour of +non-contiguity, is not one-fifty-second part of what is contained +in the bills of mortality, and consequently London, without the +said three parishes, hath more people than Paris and Rouen put +together, by 114,284.</p> +<p>Which number of 114,284 is probably more people than any other +city of France contains.</p> +<h3>THE SECOND ESSAY.</h3> +<p>As for other comparisons of London with Paris, we farther +repeat and enlarge what hath been formerly said upon those +matters, as followeth, viz.:—</p> +<p>1. That forty per cent. die out of the hospitals at +Paris where so many die unnecessarily, and scarce one-twentieth +of that proportion out of the hospitals of London, which have +been shown to be better than the best of Paris.</p> +<p>2. That at Paris 81,280 kitchens are within less than +24,000 street-doors, which makes less cleanly and convenient way +of living than at London.</p> +<p>3. Where the number of christenings are near unto, or +exceed the burials, the people are poorer, having few servants +and little equipage.</p> +<p>4. The river Thames is more pleasant and navigable than +the Seine, and its waters better and more wholesome; and the +bridge of London is the most considerable of all Europe.</p> +<p>5. The shipping and foreign trade of London is +incomparably greater than that at Paris and Rouen.</p> +<p>6. The lawyers’ chambers at London have 2,772 +chimnies in them, and are worth £140,000 sterling, or +3,000,000 of French livres, besides the dwellings of their +families elsewhere.</p> +<p>7. The air is more wholesome, for that at London scarce +two of sixteen die out of the worst hospitals, but at Paris above +two of fifteen out of the best. Moreover the burials of +Paris are one-fifth part above and below the medium, but at +London not above one-twelfth, so as the intemperies of the air at +Paris is far greater than at London.</p> +<p>8. The fuel cheaper, and lies in less room, the coals +being a wholesome sulphurous bitumen.</p> +<p>9. All the most necessary sorts of victuals, and of +fish, are cheaper, and drinks of all sorts in greater variety and +plenty.</p> +<p>10. The churches of London we leave to be judged by +thinking that nothing at Paris is so great as St. Paul’s +was, and is like to be, nor so beautiful as Henry the +Seventh’s chapel.</p> +<p>11. On the other hand, it is probable, that there is +more money in Paris than London, if the public revenue (grossly +speaking, quadruple to that of England) be lodged there.</p> +<p>12. Paris hath not been for these last fifty years so +much infested with the plague as London; now that at London the +plague (which between the years 1591 and 1666 made five returns, +viz., every fifteen years, at a medium, and at each time carried +away one-fifth of the people) hath not been known for the 21 +years last past, and there is a visible way by God’s +ordinary blessing to lessen the same by two-thirds when it next +appeareth.</p> +<p>13. As to the ground upon which Paris stands in respect +of London, we say, that if there be five stories or floors of +housing at Paris, for four at London, or in that proportion, then +the 82,000 families of Paris stand upon the equivalent of 65,000 +London housteds, and if there be 115,000 families at London, and +but 82,000 at Paris, then the proportion of the London ground to +that of Paris is as 115 to sixty-five, or as twenty-three to +thirteen.</p> +<p>14. Moreover Paris is said to be an oval of three +English miles long and two and a half broad, the area whereof +contains but five and a half square miles; but London is seven +miles long, and one and a quarter broad at a medium, which makes +an area of near nine square miles, which proportion of five and +half to nine differs little from that of thirteen to +twenty-three.</p> +<p>15. Memorandum, that in Nero’s time, as Monsieur +Chivreau reporteth, there died 300,000 people of the plague in +old Rome; now if there died three of ten then and there, being a +hotter country, as there dies two of ten at London, the number of +people at that time, was but a million, whereas at London they +are now about 700,000. Moreover the ground within the walls +of old Rome was a circle but of three miles diameter, whose area +is about seven square miles, and the suburbs scarce as much more, +in all about thirteen square miles, whereas the built ground at +London is about nine square miles as aforesaid; which two sorts +of proportions agree with each other, and consequently old Rome +seems but to have been half as big again as the present London, +which we offer to antiquaries.</p> +<h3>THE THIRD ESSAY.</h3> +<p><span class="smcap">Proofs</span> that the number of people in +the 134 parishes of the London bills of mortality, without +reference to other cities, is about 696,000, viz.—</p> +<p>I know but three ways of finding the same.</p> +<p>1. By the houses, and families, and heads living in +each.</p> +<p>2. By the number of burials in healthful times, and by +the proportion of those that live, to those that die.</p> +<p>3. By the number of those who die of the plague in +pestilential years, in proportion to those that escape.</p> +<h4><i>The First Way</i>.</h4> +<p>To know the number of houses, I used three methods, +viz.—</p> +<p>1. The number of houses which were burnt <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1666, which by authentic report was +13,200; next what proportion the people who died out of those +houses, bore to the whole; which I find <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1686, to be but one seventh part, +but <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1666 to be almost +one-fifth, from whence I infer the whole housing of London <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1666 to have been 66,000, then +finding the burials <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1666 to be +to those of 1686 as 3 to 4,I pitch upon 88,000 to be the number +of housing <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1686.</p> +<p>2. Those who have been employed in making the general +map of London, set forth in the year 1682, told me that in that +year they had found above 84,000 houses to be in London, +wherefore <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1686, or in four +years more, there might be one-tenth or 8,400 houses more (London +doubling in forty years) so as the whole, <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1686 might be 92,400.</p> +<p>3. I found that <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1685, +there were 29,325 hearths in Dublin, and 6,400 houses, and in +London 388 thousand hearths, whereby there must have been at that +rate 87,000 houses in London. Moreover I found that in +Bristol there were in the same year 16,752 hearth; and 5,307 +houses, and in London 388,000 hearths as aforesaid; at which rate +there must have been 123,000 houses in London, and at a medium +between Dublin and Bristol proportions 105,000 houses.</p> +<p>Lastly, by certificate from the hearth office, I find the +houses within the bills of mortality to be 105,315.</p> +<p>Having thus found the houses, I proceed next to the number of +families in them, and first I thought that if there were three or +four families or kitchens in every house of Paris, there might be +two families in one-tenth of the housing of London; unto which +supposition, the common opinion of several friends doth concur +with my own conjectures.</p> +<p>As to the number of heads in each family, I stick to +Grant’s observation in page — of his fifth edition, +that in tradesmen of London’s families there be eight heads +one with another, in families of higher ranks, above ten, and in +the poorest near live, according to which proportions, I had upon +another occasion pitched the medium of heads in all the families +of England to be six and one-third, but quitting the fraction in +this case, I agree with Monsieur Auzout for six.</p> +<p>To conclude, the houses of London being 105,315 and the +addition of double families 10,531 more, in all 115,846; I +multiplied the same by six, which produced 695,076 for the number +of the people.</p> +<h4><i>The Second Way</i>.</h4> +<p>I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, +and both healthful, did wonderfully agree in their burials, viz., +1684 they were 23,202, and <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> +1685 23,222, the medium whereof is 23,212; moreover that the +christenings 1684 were 14,702, and those <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1685 were 14,730, wherefore I +multiplied the medium of burials 23,212 by 30, supposing that one +dies out of 30 at London, which made the number of people 696,360 +souls.</p> +<p>Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London or thereabouts, +I say—</p> +<p>1. That Grant in the — page of his fifth edition, +affirmeth from observation, that 3 died of 88 per annum which is +near the same proportion.</p> +<p>2. I found that out of healthful places, and out of +adult persons, there dies much fewer, as but one out of 50 among +our parliament men, and that the kings of England having reigned +24 years one with another, probably lived above 30 years +each.</p> +<p>3. Grant, page — hath shown that but about one of +20 die per annum out of young children under 10 years old, and +Monsieur Auzout thinks that but 1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the +greater proportion of adult persons there, wherefore we still +stick as a medium to the number 30.</p> +<p>4. In nine country parishes lying in several parts of +England, I find that but one of 37 hath died per annum, or 311 +out of 11,507, wherefore till I see another round number, +grounded upon many observations, nearer than 30, I hope to have +done pretty well in multiplying our burials by 30 to find the +number of the people, the product being 696,360, and what we find +by the families they are 695,076, as aforesaid.</p> +<h4><i>The Third Way</i>.</h4> +<p>It was proved by Grant, that one-fifth of the people died of +the plague, but <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1665 there +died of the plague near 98,000 persons, the quintuple whereof is +490,000 as the number of people in the year 1665, whereunto +adding above one-third, as the increase between 1665 and 1686, +the total is 653,000, agreeing well enough with the other two +computations above mentioned.</p> +<p>Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue till a better +be put in its place.</p> +<p><i>Memorandum</i>. That two or three hundred new houses +would make a contiguity of two or three other great parishes, +with the 134 already mentioned in the bills of mortality: and +that an oval wall of about twenty miles in compass would enclose +the same, and all the shipping at Deptford and Blackwall, and +would also fence in 20,000 acres of land, and lay the foundation +or designation of several vast advantages to the owners, and +inhabitants of that ground, as also to the whole nation and +government.</p> +<h3>THE FOURTH ESSAY.</h3> +<p><i>Concerning the proportions of People in the eight eminent +Cities of Christendom undernamed</i>, viz.:—</p> +<p>1. <span class="smcap">We</span> have by the number of +burials in healthful years, and by the proportion of the living +to those who die yearly, as also by the number of houses and +families within the 134 parishes called London, and the estimate +of the heads in each, pitched upon the number of people in that +city to be at a medium 695,718.</p> +<p>2. We have, by allowing that at Paris above 80,000 +families, viz., 81,280, do live in 23,223 houses, 32 palaces, and +38 colleges, or that there are 81,280 kitchens within less than +24,000 street doors; as also by allowing 30 heads for every one +that died necessarily there; we have pitched upon the number of +people there at a medium to be 488,055, nor have we restrained +them to 300,000, by allowing with Monsieur Auzout 6 heads for +each of Moreri’s 50,000 houses or families.</p> +<p>3. To Amsterdam we allow 187,350 souls, viz., 30 times +the number of their burials, which were 6,245 in the year +1685.</p> +<p>4. To Venice we allow 134,000 souls, as found there in a +special account taken by authority, about ten years since, when +the city abounded with such as returned from Candia, then +surrendered to the Turks.</p> +<p>5. To Rome we allow 119,000 Christians, and 6,000 Jews, +in all 125,000 souls, according to an account sent thither of the +same by Monsieur Auzout.</p> +<p>6. To Dublin we allow (as to Amsterdam) 30 times its +burials, the medium whereof for the last two years is 2,303, +viz., 69,090 souls.</p> +<p>7. As to Bristol, we say that if the 6,400 houses of +Dublin give 69,090 people, that the 5,307 houses of Bristol must +give above 56,000 people. Moreover, if the 29,325 hearths +of Dublin give 69,090 people, the 16,752 hearths of Bristol must +give about 40,000; but the medium of 56,000 and 40,000 is +48,000.</p> +<p>8. As for Rouen, we have no help, but Monsieur +Auzout’s fancy of 80,000 souls to be in that city, and the +conjecture of knowing men that Rouen is between the one-seventh +and one-eighth part of Paris, and also that it is by a third +bigger than Bristol; by all which, we estimate, till farther +light, that Rouen hath at most but 66,000 people in it.</p> +<p>Now it may be wondered why we mentioned Rouen at all, having +had so little knowledge of it; whereunto we answer, that we did +not think it just to compare London with Paris, as to shipping +and foreign trade, without adding Rouen thereunto, Rouen being to +Paris as that part of London which is below the bridge, is to +what is above it.</p> +<p>All which we heartily submit to the correction of the curious +and candid, in the meantime observing according to the gross +numbers under-mentioned.</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p>London</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">696,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Paris</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">488,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Amsterdam</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">187,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Venice</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">134,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Rome</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">125,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Dublin</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">69,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Bristol</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">48,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Rouen</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">66,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<h4><i>Observations on the said Eight Cities</i>.</h4> +<p>1. That the people of</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p>Paris being</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">488,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Rome</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">125,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Rouen</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">66,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>do make in all but</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">679,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>or 17,000 less than the 696,000 of London alone.</p> +<p>2. That the people of the two English cities and +emporiums—viz., of London, 696,000, and Bristol, +48,000—do make 744,000, or more than</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p>In Paris</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">488,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Amsterdam</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">187,090</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Rouen</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">66,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Being in all</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">741,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>3. That the same two English cities seem equivalent</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p>To Paris, which hath</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">488,000 souls.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> Rouen</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">66,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> Lyons</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">100,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> Toulouse</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">90,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>In all</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">744,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>If there be any error in these conjectures concerning these +cities of France, we hope they will be mended by those whom we +hear to be now at work upon that matter.</p> +<p>4. That the King of England’s three cities, +viz.:</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center">King’s +Cities</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center">Exceed</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>London</p> +</td> +<td><p>696,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Paris</p> +</td> +<td><p>488,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Dublin</p> +</td> +<td><p>69,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Amsterdam</p> +</td> +<td><p>187,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Bristol</p> +</td> +<td><p>48,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Venice</p> +</td> +<td><p>134,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>In all</p> +</td> +<td><p>813,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Being but</p> +</td> +<td><p>809,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>5. That of the four great emporiums, London, Amsterdam, +Venice, and Rouen, London alone is near double to the other +three, viz., above 7 to 4.</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p>Amsterdam</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">187,000</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Venice</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">134,000</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Rouen</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">66,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">387,000</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td colspan="2"><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">× 2</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td colspan="2"><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">774,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>London 696,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>6. That London, for aught appears, is the greatest and +most considerable city of the world, but manifestly the greatest +emporium.</p> +<p>When these assertions have passed the examen of the critics, +we shall make another essay, showing how to apply those truths to +the honour and profit of the King and Kingdom of England.</p> +<h3>THE FIFTH ESSAY.</h3> +<p style="text-align: center"><i>Concerning Holland and the rest +of the United Provinces</i>.</p> +<p><span class="smcap">Since</span> the close of this paper, it +hath been objected from Holland, that what hath been said of the +number of houses and people in London is not like to be true; for +that if it were, then London would be the two-thirds of the whole +Province of Holland. To which is answered, that London is +the two-thirds of all Holland, and more, that province having not +1,044,000 inhabitants (whereof 696,000 is the two-thirds), nor +above 800,000, as we have credibly and often heard. For +suppose Amsterdam hath—as we have elsewhere +noted—187,000, the seven next great cities at 30,000 each, +one with another, 210,000, the ten next at 15,000 each 150,000, +the ten smallest at 6,000 each 60,000—in all, the +twenty-eight walled cities and towns of Holland 607,000; in the +dorps and villages 193,000, which is about one head for every +four acres of land; whereas in England there is eight acres for +every head, without the cities and market-towns.</p> +<p>Now, suppose London, having 116,000 families, should have +seven heads in each—the medium between MM. Auzout’s +and Grant’s reckonings—the total of the people would +be 812,000; or if we reckon that there dies one out of +thirty-four—the medium between thirty and thirty-seven +above mentioned—the total of the people would be +thirty-four times 23,212, viz., 789,208, the medium between which +number and the above 812,000 is 800,604, somewhat exceeding +800,000, the supposed number of Holland.</p> +<p>Furthermore, I say that upon former searches into the peopling +of the world, I never found that in any country—not in +China itself—there was more than one man to every English +acre of land: many territories passing for well-peopled where +there is but one man for ten such acres. I found by +measuring Holland and West Frisia (<i>alias</i> North Holland) +upon the best maps, that it contained but as many such acres as +London doth of people, viz., about 696,000 acres. I +therefore venture to pronounce (till better informed) that the +people of London are as many as those of Holland, or at least +above two-thirds of the same, which is enough to disable the +objection above mentioned; nor is there any need to strain up +London from 696,000 to 800,000, though competent reasons have +been given to that purpose, and though the author of the +excellent map of London, set forth <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1682, reckoned the people thereof +(as by the said map appears) to be 1,200,000, even when he +thought the houses of the same to be but 85,000.</p> +<p>The worthy person who makes this objection in the same letter +also saith—</p> +<p>1. That the province of Holland hath as many people as +the other six united provinces together, and as the whole kingdom +of England, and double to the city of Paris and its suburbs; that +is to say, 2,000,000 souls. 2. He says that in London +and Amsterdam, and other trading cities, there are ten heads to +every family, and that in Amsterdam there are not 22,000 +families. 3. He excepteth against the register +alleged by Monsieur Auzout, which makes 23,223 houses and above +80,000 families to be in Paris; as also against the register +alleged by Petty, making 105,315 houses to be in London, with a +tenth part of the same to be of families more than houses; and +probably will except against the register of 1,163 houses to be +in all England, that number giving, at six and one-third heads to +each family, about 7,000,000 people, upon all which we remark as +follows, viz.:—</p> +<p>1. That if Paris doth contain but 488,000 souls, that +then all Holland containeth but the double of that number, or +976,000, wherefore London, containing 696,000 souls, hath above +two-thirds of all Holland by 46,000.</p> +<p>2. If Paris containeth half as many people as there are +in all England, it must contain 3,500,000 souls, or above seven +times 488,000; and because there do not die 20,000 per annum out +of Paris, there must die but one out of 175; whereas Monsieur +Auzout thinks that there dies one out of 25, and there must live +149 heads in every house of Paris mentioned in the register, but +there must be scarce two heads in every house of England, all +which we think fit to be reconsidered.</p> +<p>I must, as an Englishman, take notice of one point more, which +is, that these assertions do reflect upon the empire of England, +for that it is said that England hath but 2,000,000 inhabitants, +and it might as well have been added, that Scotland and Ireland, +with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, have but +two-fifths of the same number, or 800,000 more, or that all the +King of England’s subjects in Europe are but 2,800,000 +souls, whereas he saith that the subjects of the seven united +provinces are 4,000,000. To which we answer that the +subjects of the said seven provinces are, by this +objector’s own showing, but the quadruple of Paris, or +1,932,000 souls, Paris containing but 488,000, as afore hath been +proved, and we do here affirm that England hath 7,000,000 people, +and that Scotland, Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and +Guernsey, hath two-fifths of the said number, or 2,800,000 more, +in all 9,800,000; whereas by the objector’s doctrine, if +the seven provinces have 1,932,000 people, the King of +England’s territories should have but seven-tenths of the +same number, viz., 1,351,000, whereas we say 9,800,000, as +aforesaid, which difference is so gross as that it deserves to be +thus reflected upon.</p> +<p>To conclude, we expect from the concerned critics of the world +that they would prove—</p> +<p>1. That Holland, and West Frisia, and the twenty-eight +towns and cities thereof, hath more people than London alone.</p> +<p>2. That any three of the best cities of France, any two +of all Christendom, or any one of the world, hath the same, or +better housing, and more foreign trade than London, even in the +year that King James the Second came to the empire thereof.</p> +<h2>OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND.</h2> +<p><i>Founded upon the Calculations of Gregory King</i>, +<i>Lancaster Herald</i>, <i>and forming part of</i> “<i>An +Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a People gainers in the +Balance of Trade</i>.” <i>Published in 1699</i>.</p> +<p><span class="smcap">The</span> writer of these papers has seen +the natural and political observations and conclusions upon the +state and condition of England by Gregory King, Esq., Lancaster +Herald, in manuscript. The calculations therein contained +are very accurate, and more perhaps to be relied upon than +anything that has been ever done of the like kind. This +skilful and laborious gentleman has taken the right course to +form his several schemes about the numbers of the people, for +besides many different ways of working, he has very carefully +inspected the poll-books, and the distinctions made by those +acts, and the produce in many of the respective polls, going +everywhere by reasonable and discreet mediums: besides which +pains, he has made observations of the very facts in particular +towns and places, from which he has been able to judge and +conclude more safely of others, so that he seems to have looked +further into this mystery than any other person.</p> +<p>With his permission, we shall offer to the public such of his +computations as may be of use, and enlighten in the matter before +us.</p> +<p>He lays down that if the first peopling of England was by a +colony or colonies, consisting of a number between 100 and 1,000 +people (which seems probable), such colony or colonies might be +brought over between the year of the world 2400 and 2600, viz., +about 800 or 900 years after the Flood, and 1,400 or 1,500 years +before the birth of Christ, at which time the world might have +about 1,000,000 families, and 4,000,000 or 5,000,000 people.</p> +<p>From which hypothesis it will follow by an orderly series of +increase—</p> +<p>That when the Romans invaded England fifty-three years before +Christ’s time, the kingdom might have about 360,000 people, +and at Christ’s birth about 400,000.</p> +<p>That at the Norman Conquest, <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1066, the kingdom might contain +somewhat above 2,000,000.</p> +<p>That <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1260, or about 200 +years after the Norman Conquest, it might contain about 2,750,000 +people, or half the present number: so that the people of England +may have doubled in about 435 years last past.</p> +<p>That in all probability the next doubling will be in about 600 +years to come, viz., by the year 2300, at which time it may have +about 11,000,000 people, and the kingdom containing about +39,000,000 of acres, there will be then about three acres and a +half per head.</p> +<p>That the increase of the kingdom for every hundred years of +the last preceding term of doubling, and the subsequent term of +doubling, may have been and in all probability may be, according +to the following scheme:—</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Anno Domini.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Number of people.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Increase every hundred +years.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1300</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,800,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1400</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,300,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">440,000.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1500</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,840,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">540,000.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1600</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4,620,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">780,000.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1700</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,500,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">880,000.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1800</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,420,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">920,000.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1900</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">7,350,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">930,000.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8,280,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">930,000.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2100</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">9,205,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">925,000.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2200</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10,115,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">910,000.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2300</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">11,000,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">885,000.</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>Whereby it may appear that the increase of the kingdom being +880,000 people in the last hundred years, and 920,000 in the next +succeeding hundred years, the annual increase at this time may be +about 9,000 souls per annum.</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td colspan="3"><p>But whereas the yearly births of the kingdom +are about 1 in 28.95, or</p> +</td> +<td><p>190,000 souls.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td colspan="3"><p>And the yearly burials 1 in 32.35 or</p> +</td> +<td><p>170,000 souls.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td colspan="3"><p>Whereby the yearly increase would be</p> +</td> +<td><p>20,000 souls.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td colspan="2"><p>It is to be noted—</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">Per ann.</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>1.</p> +</td> +<td><p>That the allowance for plagues and great mortalities may +come to at a medium</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4,000</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>2.</p> +</td> +<td><p>Foreign or civil wars at a medium</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,500</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>3.</p> +</td> +<td><p>The sea constantly employing about 40,000, may precipitate +the death of about</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,500</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>4.</p> +</td> +<td><p>The plantations (over and above the accession of +foreigners) may carry away</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,000</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td colspan="3"><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p>11,000 per annum.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td colspan="3"><p>Whereby the net annual increase may be but</p> +</td> +<td><p>9,000 souls.</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the annual increase +of the kingdom by procreation, were it not for the +before-mentioned abatements.</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p>The country increases annually by procreation</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">20,000 souls.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>The cities and towns, exclusive of London, by +procreation</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,000 souls.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>But London and the bills of mortality decrease +annually</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,000 souls.</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls per annum to +keep it from decreasing, besides a further supply of about 3,000 +per annum for its increase at this time. In all 5,000, or +above a half of the kingdom’s net increase.</p> +<p>Mr. King further observes that by the assessments on +marriages, births, and burials, and the collectors’ returns +thereupon, and by the parish registers, it appears that the +proportions of marriages, births, and burials are according to +the following scheme</p> +<h3><i>Vide</i> Scheme A.</h3> +<p>Whence it may be observed that in 10,000 coexisting persons +there are 71 or 72 marriages in the country, producing 343 +children; 78 marriages in towns producing 351 children; 94 +marriages in London, producing 376 children.</p> +<p>Whereby it follows—</p> +<p>1. That though each marriage in London produces fewer +people than in the country, yet London in general having a +greater proportion of breeders, is more prolific than the other +great towns, and the great towns are more prolific than the +country.</p> +<p>2. That if the people of London of all ages were as +long-lived as those in the country, London would increase in +people much faster <i>pro rata</i> than the country.</p> +<p>3. That the reasons why each marriage in London produces +fewer children than the country marriages seem to be—</p> +<p class="gutindent">(1) From the more frequent fornications and +adulteries.</p> +<p class="gutindent">(2) From a greater luxury and +intemperance.</p> +<p class="gutindent">(3) From a greater intentness on +business.</p> +<p class="gutindent">(4) From the unhealthfulness of the coal +smoke.</p> +<p class="gutindent">(5) From a greater inequality of age between +the husbands and wives.</p> +<p class="gutindent">(6) From the husbands and wives not living +so long as in the country.</p> +<p>He further observes, accounting the people to be 5,500,000, +that the said five millions and a half (including the transitory +people and vagrants) appear by the assessments on marriages, +births, and burials, to bear the following proportions in +relation to males and females, and other distinctions of the +people, viz.:—</p> +<h3>SCHEME A.</h3> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: center">People.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Annual Marriages. In +all.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Producing children each</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">530,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>London and bills of mortality</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1 in 106</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4.0</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">870,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>The cities and market towns</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1 in 128</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,800</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4.5</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4,100,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>The villages and hamlets</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1 in 141</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">29,200</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4.8</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,500,000</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1 in 134</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">41,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4.64</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> + +<div class="gapspace"> </div> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center">Annual Births.</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center">Annual Burials.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">In all.</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">In all.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>London and bills of mortality</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1 in 26½</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">20,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1 in 24.1</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">22,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>The cities and market towns</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1 in 28½</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">30,600</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1 in 30.4</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">28,600</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>The villages and hamlets</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1 in 29.4</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">29,200</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1 in 34.4</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">119,400</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1 in 28.95</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">190,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1 in 32.35</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">170,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<h3><i>Vide</i> Scheme B.</h3> +<p>So that the number of communicants is in all 3,260,000 souls; +and the number of fighting men between sixteen and sixty is +1,308,000.</p> +<h3>SCHEME B.</h3> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Males. Females.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Males.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Females.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Both.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>In London and bills of mortality</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10 to 13</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">230,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">300,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">530,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>In the other cities and market-towns</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8 to 9</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">410,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">460,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">870,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>In the villages and hamlets</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">100 to 99</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,060,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,040,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4,100,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">27 to 28</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,700,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,800,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,500,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p><i>That as to other distinctions they appear by the said +assessments to bear these proportions</i>.</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">People.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Males.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Females.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Husbands and wives at above</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">34½%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,900,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">950,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">950,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Widowers at above</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1½%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">90,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">90,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Widows at about</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4½%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">240,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">240,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Children at above</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">45%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,500,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,300,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,200,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Servants at about</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10½%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">560,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">260,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">300,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Sojourners and single persons</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">210,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">100,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">110,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">100%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,500,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,700,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,800,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p><i>And that the different proportions in each of the said +articles between London</i>, <i>the great towns</i>, <i>and the +villages</i>, <i>may the better appear</i>, <i>he has formed the +following scheme</i>:—</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center">London and Bills of +Mortality. Souls.</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center">The other Cities +and great Towns. Souls.</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center">The Villages and +Hamlets. Souls.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Husbands and Wives</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">37%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">196,100</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">36%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">313,200</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">34%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,394,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Widowers</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10,600</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">17,400</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1½%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">61,500</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Widows</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">7%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">37,100</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">52,200</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4½%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">184,500</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Children</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">33%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">174,900</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">40%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">348,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">47%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,927,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Servants</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">13%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">68,900</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">11%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">95,700</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">410,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Sojourners</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">42,400</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">43,500</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">123,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">100%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">530,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">100%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">870,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">100%</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4,100,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<h3>SCHEME B (<i>continued</i>).</h3> +<p><i>He further observes</i>, <i>supposing the people to be +5,500,000</i>, <i>that the yearly births of the Kingdom may be +190,000</i>, <i>and that the several ages of the people may be as +follows</i>:</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">In all.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Males.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Females.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Those under 1 years old</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">170,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">88,500</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">81,500</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Those under 5 years old</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">820,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">413,300</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">406,700</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Those under 10 years old</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,520,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">762,900</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">757,100</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Those above 16 years old</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,260,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,578,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,682,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Those above 21 years old</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,700,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,300,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,400,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Those above 25 years old</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,400,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,152,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,248,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Those above 60 years old</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">600,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">270,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">330,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Those under 16 years old</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,240,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Those above 16 years old</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,260,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">Total of the people</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,500,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>That the bachelors are about 28 per cent. of the whole, +whereof those under twenty-five years are 25½ per cent., +and those above twenty-five years are 2½ per cent.</p> +<p>That the maidens are about 28½ per cent. of the +whole.</p> +<p>Whereof those under 25 years are 26½ per cent.</p> +<p>And those above 25 years are 2 per cent.</p> +<p>That the males and females in the kingdom in general are aged, +one with another, 27 years and a half.</p> +<p>That in the kingdom in general there is near as many people +living under 20 years of age as there is above 20, whereof half +of the males are under 19, and one half of the females are under +21 years.</p> +<p>That the ages of the people, according to their several +distinctions, are as follows, viz.:—</p> +<h3><i>Vide</i> Scheme C.</h3> +<p>Having thus stated the numbers of the people, he gives a +scheme of the income and expense of the several families of +England, calculated for the year 1688.</p> +<h3>SCHEME C.</h3> +<table> +<tr> +<td colspan="4"><p style="text-align: center">At a Medium</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>The husbands are aged</p> +</td> +<td><p>43 years apiece, which, at</p> +</td> +<td><p>17¼ per cent., makes</p> +</td> +<td><p>742 years.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>The wives</p> +</td> +<td><p>40</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">17¼</p> +</td> +<td><p>690</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>The widowers</p> +</td> +<td><p>56</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1½</p> +</td> +<td><p>84</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>The widows</p> +</td> +<td><p>60</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4½</p> +</td> +<td><p>270</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>The children</p> +</td> +<td><p>12</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">45</p> +</td> +<td><p>540</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>The servants</p> +</td> +<td><p>27</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10½</p> +</td> +<td><p>284</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>The sojourners</p> +</td> +<td><p>35</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4</p> +</td> +<td><p>140</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>At a medium</p> +</td> +<td><p>27½</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">100</p> +</td> +<td><p>2,750</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<h4><i>Vide</i> Scheme D.</h4> +<p>Mr. King’s modesty has been so far overruled as to +suffer us to communicate these his excellent computations, which +we can the more safely commend, having examined them very +carefully, tried them by some little operations of our own upon +the same subject, and compared them with the schemes of other +persons, who take pleasure in the like studies.</p> +<p>What he says concerning the number of the people to be +5,500,000 is no positive assertion, nor shall we pretend anywhere +to determine in that matter; what he lays down is by way of +hypothesis, that supposing the inhabitants of England to have +been, <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1300, 2,860,000 heads, +by the orderly series of increase allowed of by all writers they +may probably be about <span class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1700, +5,500,000 heads; but if they were <span +class="GutSmall">A.D.</span> 1300 either less or more, the case +must proportionably alter; for as to his allowances for plagues, +great mortalities, civil wars, the sea, and the plantations, they +seem very reasonable, and not well to be controverted.</p> +<p>Upon these schemes of Mr. King we shall make several remarks, +though the text deserves much a better comment.</p> +<h3>SCHEME D.—A SCHEME OF THE INCOME AND EXPENSE OF THE +SEVERAL FAMILIES OF ENGLAND, CALCULATED FOR THE YEAR 1688. <a +name="citation148"></a><a href="#footnote148" +class="citation">[148]</a></h3> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Number of Families.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center"><span +class="smcap">Ranks</span>, <span class="smcap">Degrees</span>, +<span class="smcap">Titles</span>, <span class="smcap">and +Qualifications</span>.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Heads per Family.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">160</p> +</td> +<td><p>Temporal Lords</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">40</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">26</p> +</td> +<td><p>Spiritual Lords</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">20</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">800</p> +</td> +<td><p>Baronets</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">16</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">600</p> +</td> +<td><p>Knights</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">13</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Esquires</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Gentlemen</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Persons in greater offices and places</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Persons in lesser offices and places</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Eminent merchants and traders by sea</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Lesser merchants and traders by sea</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Persons in the law</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">7</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Eminent clergymen</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Lesser clergymen</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">40,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Freeholders of the better sort</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">7</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">120,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Freeholders of the lesser sort</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5½</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">150,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Farmers</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">15,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Persons in liberal arts and sciences</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">50,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Shopkeepers and tradesmen</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4½</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">60,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Artisans and handicrafts</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Naval officers</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Military officers</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">500,586</p> +</td> +<td><p> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5⅓</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">50,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Common seamen</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">364,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Labouring people and out-servants</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3½</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">400,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Cottagers and paupers</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3¼</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">35,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Common soldiers</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">849,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Vagrants, as gipsies, thieves, beggars, &c.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3¼</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">500,586</p> +</td> +<td><p>Increasing the wealth of the kingdom</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5⅓</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">849,000</p> +</td> +<td><p>Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3¼</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,349,586</p> +</td> +<td><p>Net totals</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4 <sup>1</sup>/<sub>13</sub></p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> + +<div class="gapspace"> </div> +<table> +<tr> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center">Number of +Persons.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Yearly Income per. Family.</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center">Yearly Income in +general.</p> +</td> +<td colspan="6"><p style="text-align: center">Yearly Income per. +Hd.</p> +</td> +<td colspan="4"><p style="text-align: center">Yearly Expense per +Hd.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Yearly Increase per. Hd.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Yearly Incr. in General.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: center">£</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">s.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">£</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">£</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">s.</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center">£</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center">s.</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center">d.</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: center">£</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">s.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">d.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">£</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,400</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,200</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">512,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">80</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">70</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">64,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">520</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,300</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">33,800</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">65</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">45</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">20</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10,400</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12,800</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">880</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">704,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">55</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">49</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">76,800</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">7,800</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">650</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">390,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">50</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">45</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">39,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">30,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">450</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,200,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">45</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">41</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">120,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">96,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">280</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,880,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">35</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">32</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">288,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">40,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">240</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,200,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">30</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">26</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">160,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">30,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">120</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">600,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">20</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">17</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">90,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">16,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">400</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">800,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">50</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">37</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">13</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">208,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">48,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">198</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,600,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">33</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">27</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">288,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">70,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">154</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,540,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">22</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">18</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">280,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">72</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">144,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">24,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">40,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">50</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">400,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">9</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">4</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">16</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">32,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">280,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">91</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,640,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">13</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">11</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">15</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">350,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">660,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">55</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,600,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">9</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">330,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">750,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">42</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6,375,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">8</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">5</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">187,500</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">75,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">60</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">900,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">11</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">75,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">225,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">45</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,250,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">9</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">225,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">240,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">38</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,280,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">9</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">9</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">120,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">20,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">80</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">400,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">20</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">18</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">40,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">16,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">60</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">240,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">15</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">14</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">16,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,675,520</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">68</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">18</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">34,488,800</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">18</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">11</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">15</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">4</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,023,700</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td colspan="13"><p> </p> +</td> +<td colspan="3"><p style="text-align: center">Decrease.</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: center">Decrease.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">150,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">20</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,000,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">7</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">7</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td colspan="3"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">75,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,275,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">15</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,460,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">4</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">12</p> +</td> +<td colspan="3"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">127,500</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">1,300,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,000,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">2</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">5</p> +</td> +<td colspan="3"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">325,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">70,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">14</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">490,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">7</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">7</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td colspan="3"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">35,000</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,795,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8,950,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">3</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">9</p> +</td> +<td colspan="3"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">562,500</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">30,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">60,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">2</p> +</td> +<td colspan="3"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">60,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right"> </p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td colspan="17"><p>So the General Account is</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,675,520</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">68</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">18</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">34,488,800</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">12</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">18</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">11</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">15</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">4</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">1</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3,023,700</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,825,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">10</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">9,010,000</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">3</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">3</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">7</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">6</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">4</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">6</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">622,500</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5,500,520</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">32</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">5</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">43,491,800</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">7</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">18</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">7</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">9</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">3</p> +</td> +<td colspan="2"><p style="text-align: right">0</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">8</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">9</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,401,200</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>The people being the first matter of power and wealth, by +whose labour and industry a nation must be gainers in the +balance, their increase or decrease must be carefully observed by +any government that designs to thrive; that is, their increase +must be promoted by good conduct and wholesome laws, and if they +have been decreased by war, or any other accident, the breach is +to be made up as soon as possible, for it is a maim in the body +politic affecting all its parts.</p> +<p>Almost all countries in the world have been more or less +populous, as liberty and property have been there well or ill +secured. The first constitution of Rome was no ill-founded +government, a kingly power limited by laws; and the people +increased so fast, that, from a small beginning, in the reign of +their sixth king were they able to send out an army of 80,000 +men. And in the time of the commonwealth, in that invasion +which the Gauls made upon Italy, not long before Hannibal came +thither, they were grown so numerous, as that their troops +consisted of 700,000 foot and 70,000 horse; it is true their +allies were comprehended in this number, but the ordinary people +fit to bear arms being mustered in Rome and Campania, amounted to +250,000 foot and 23,000 horse.</p> +<p>Nothing, therefore, can more contribute to the rendering +England populous and strong than to have liberty upon a right +footing, and our legal constitution firmly preserved. A +nation may be as well called free under a limited kingship as in +a commonwealth, and it is to this good form of our government +that we partly owe that doubling of the people which has probably +happened here in the 435 years last past. And if the +ambition of some, and the mercenary temper of others, should +bring us at any time to alter our constitution, and to give up +our ancient rights, we shall find our numbers diminish visibly +and fast. For liberty encourages procreation, and not only +keeps our own inhabitants among us, but invites strangers to come +and live under the shelter of our laws.</p> +<p>The Romans, indeed, made use of an adventitious help to +enlarge their city, which was by incorporating foreign cities and +nations into their commonwealth; but this way is not without its +mischiefs. For the strangers in Rome by degrees had grown +so numerous, and to have so great a vote in the councils, that +the whole Government began to totter, and decline from its old to +its new inhabitants, which Fabius the censor observing, he +applied a remedy in time by reducing all the new citizens into +four tribes, that being contracted into so narrow a space, they +might not have so malignant an influence upon the city.</p> +<p>An Act of general naturalisation would likewise probably +increase our numbers very fast, and repair what loss we may have +suffered in our people by the late war. It is a matter that +has been very warmly contended for by many good patriots; but +peradventure it carries also its danger with it, which perhaps +would have the less influence by this expedient, namely, if an +Act of Parliament were made, that no heads of families hereafter +to be naturalised for the first generation, should have votes in +any of our elections. But as the case stands, it seems +against the nature of right government that strangers (who may be +spies, and who may have an interest opposite to that of England, +and who at best ever join in one link of obsequiousness to the +Ministers) should be suffered to intermeddle in that important +business of sending members to Parliament. From their sons +indeed there is less to fear, who by birth and nature may come to +have the same interest and inclinations as the natives.</p> +<p>And though the expedient of Fabius Maximus, to contract the +strangers into four tribes, might be reasonable where the affairs +of a whole empire were transacted by magistrates chosen in one +city, yet the same policy may not hold good in England; +foreigners cannot influence elections here by being dispersed +about in the several counties of the kingdom, where they can +never come to have any considerable strength. But some time +or other they may endanger the government by being suffered to +remain, such vast numbers of them here in London where they +inhabit altogether, at least 30,000 persons in two quarters of +the town, without intermarrying with the English, or learning our +language, by which means for several years to come they are in a +way still to continue foreigners, and perhaps may have a foreign +interest and foreign inclinations; to permit this cannot be +advisable or safe. It may therefore be proper to limit any +new Acts of naturalisation with such restrictions as may make the +accession of strangers not dangerous to the public.</p> +<p>An accession of strangers, well regulated, may add to our +strength and numbers; but then it must be composed of labouring +men, artificers, merchants, and other rich men, and not of +foreign soldiers, since such fright and drive away from a nation +more people than their troops can well consist of: for if it has +been ever seen that men abound most where there is most freedom +(China excepted, whose climate excels all others, and where the +exercise of the tyranny is mild and easy) it must follow that +people will in time desert those countries whose best flower is +their liberties, if those liberties are thought precarious or in +danger. That foreign soldiers are dangerous to liberty, we +may produce examples from all countries and all ages; but we +shall instance only one, because it is eminent above all the +rest.</p> +<p>The Carthaginians, in their wars, did very much use mercenary +and foreign troops; and when the peace was made between them and +the Romans, after a long dispute for the dominion of Sicily, they +brought their army home to be paid and disbanded, which Gesco, +their General, had the charge of embarking, who did order all his +part with great dexterity and wisdom. But the State of +Carthage wanting money to clear arrears, and satisfy the troops, +was forced to keep them up longer than was designed. The +army consisted of Gauls, Ligurians, Baleareans, and Greeks. +At first they were insolent in their quarters in Carthage, and +were prevailed upon to remove to Sicca, where they were to remain +and expect their pay. There they grew presently corrupted +with ease and pleasure, and fell into mutinies and disorder, and +to making extravagant demands of pay and gratuities; and in a +rage, with their arms in their hands, they marched 20,000 of them +towards Carthage, encamping within fifteen miles of the city; and +chose Spendius and Matho, two profligate wretches, for their +leaders, and imprisoned Gesco, who was deputed to them from the +commonwealth. Afterwards they caused almost all the +Africans, their tributaries, to revolt; they grew in a short time +to be 70,000 strong; they fought several battles with Hanno and +Hamilcar Barcas. During these transactions, the mercenaries +that were in garrison in Sardinia mutinied likewise, murdering +their commander and all the Carthaginians; while Spendius and +Matho, to render their accomplices more desperate, put Gesco to a +cruel death, presuming afterwards to lay siege to Carthage +itself. They met with a shock indeed at Prion, where 40,000 +of them were slaughtered; but soon after this battle, in another +they took one of the Carthaginian generals prisoner, whom they +fixed to a cross, crucifying thirty of the principal senators +round about him. Spendius and Matho were at last taken, the +one crucified and the other tormented to death: but the war +lasted three years and near four months with excessive cruelty; +in which the State of Carthage lost several battles, and was +often brought within a hair’s-breadth of utter ruin.</p> +<p>If so great a commonwealth as Carthage, though assisted at +that time by Hiero, King of Syracuse, and by the Romans, ran the +hazard of losing their empire, city, and liberties, by the +insurrection of a handful of mercenaries, whose first strength +was but 20,000 men; it should be a warning to all free nations +how they suffer armies so composed to be among them, and it +should frighten a wise State from desiring such an increase of +people as may be had by the bringing over foreign soldiers.</p> +<p>Indeed, all armies whatsoever, if they are over-large, tend to +the dispeopling of a country, of which our neighbour nation is a +sufficient proof, where in one of the best climates in Europe men +are wanting to till the ground. For children do not proceed +from the intemperate pleasures taken loosely and at random, but +from a regular way of living, where the father of the family +desires to rear up and provide for the offspring he shall +beget.</p> +<p>Securing the liberties of a nation may be laid down as a +fundamental for increasing the numbers of its people; but there +are other polities thereunto conducing which no wise State has +ever neglected.</p> +<p>No race of men did multiply so fast as the Jews, which may be +attributed chiefly to the wisdom of Moses their Lawgiver, in +contriving to promote the state of marriage.</p> +<p>The Romans had the same care, paying no respect to a man +childless by his own fault, and giving great immunities and +privileges, both in the city and provinces, to those who had such +and such a number of children. Encouragements of the like +kind are also given in France to such as enrich the commonwealth +by a large issue.</p> +<p>But we in England have taken another course, laying a fine +upon the marriage bed, which seems small to those who only +contemplate the pomp and wealth round about them, and in their +view; but they who look into all the different ranks of men are +well satisfied that this duty on marriages and births is a very +grievous burden upon the poorer sort, whose numbers compose the +strength and wealth of any nation. This tax was introduced +by the necessity of affairs. It is difficult to say what +may be the event of a new thing; but if we are to take measures +from past wisdom, which exempted prolific families from public +duties, we should not lay impositions upon those who find it hard +enough to maintain themselves. If this tax be such a weight +upon the poor as to discourage marriage and hinder propagation, +which seems the truth, no doubt it ought to be abolished; and at +a convenient time we ought to change it for some other duty, if +there were only this single reason, that it is so directly +opposite to the polity of all ages and all countries.</p> +<p>In order to have hands to carry on labour and manufactures, +which must make us gainers in the balance of trade, we ought not +to deter, but rather invite men to marry, which is to be done by +privileges and exemptions for such a number of children, and by +denying certain offices of trust and dignities to all unmarried +persons; and where it is once made a fashion among those of the +better sort, it will quickly obtain with the lower degree.</p> +<p>Mr. King, in his scheme (for which he has as authentic grounds +as perhaps the matter is capable of) lays down that the annual +marriages of England are about 41,000, which is one marriage out +of every 134 persons. Upon which, we observe, that this is +not a due proportion, considering how few of our adult males (in +comparison with other countries) perish by war or any other +accident; from whence may be inferred that our polity is some way +or other defective, or the marriages would bear a nearer +proportion with the gross number of our people; for which defect, +if a remedy can be found, there will be so much more strength +added to the kingdom.</p> +<p>From the books of assessment on births, marriages, &c., by +the nearest view he can make, he divides the 5,500,000 people +into 2,700,000 males and 2,800,000 females; from whence +(considering the females exceed the males in number, and +considering that the men marry later than women, and that many of +the males are of necessity absent in the wars, at sea, and upon +other business) it follows that a large proportion of the females +remain unmarried, though at an adult age, which is a dead loss to +the nation, every birth being as so much certain treasure, upon +which account such laws must be for the public good, as induce +all men to marry whose circumstances permit it.</p> +<p>From his division of the people it may be likewise observed, +that the near proportion there is between the males and females +(which is said to hold also in other places) is an argument (and +the strongest that can be produced) against polygamy, and the +increase of mankind which some think might be from thence +expected; for if Nature had intended to one man a plurality of +wives, she would have ordered a great many more female births +than male, her designments being always right and wise.</p> +<p>The securing the parish for bastard children is become so +small a punishment and so easily compounded, that it very much +hinders marriage. The Dutch compel men of all ranks to +marry the woman whom they have got with child, and perhaps it +would tend to the further peopling of England if the common +people here, under such a certain degree, were condemned by some +new law to suffer the same penalty.</p> +<p>A country that makes provision to increase in inhabitants, +whose situation is good, and whose people have a genius adapted +to trade, will never fail to be gainers in the balance, provided +the labour and industry of their people be well managed and +carefully directed.</p> +<p>The more any man contemplates these matters the more he will +come to be of opinion, that England is capable of being rendered +one of the strongest nations, and the richest spot of ground in +Europe.</p> +<p>It is not extent of territory that makes a country powerful, +but numbers of men well employed, convenient ports, a good navy, +and a soil producing all sort of commodities. The materials +for all this we have, and so improvable, that if we did but +second the gifts of Nature with our own industry we should soon +arrive to a pitch of greatness that would put us at least upon an +equal footing with any of our neighbours.</p> +<p>If we had the complement of men our land can maintain and +nourish; if we had as much trade as our stock and knowledge in +sea affairs is capable of embracing; if we had such a naval +strength as a trade so extended would easily produce; and, if we +had those stores and that wealth which is the certain result of a +large and well-governed traffic, what human strength could hurt +or invade us? On the contrary, should we not be in a +posture not only to resist but to give the law to others?</p> +<p>Our neighbouring commonwealth has not in territory above +8,000,000 acres, and perhaps not much above 2,200,000 people, and +yet what a figure have they made in Europe for these last 100 +years? What wars have they maintained? What forces +have they resisted? and to what a height of power are they now +come, and all by good order and wise government?</p> +<p>They are liable to frequent invasions; they labour under the +inconvenience and danger of bad ports; they consume immense sums +every year to defend their land against the sea; all which +difficulties they have subdued by an unwearied industry.</p> +<p>We are fenced by nature against foreign enemies, our ports are +safe, we fear no irruptions of the sea, our land territory at +home is at least 39,000,000 acres. We have in all +likelihood not less than 5,500,000 people. What a nation +might we then become, if all these advantages were thoroughly +improved, and if a right application were made of all this +strength and of these numbers?</p> +<p>They who apprehend the immoderate growth of any prince or +State may, perhaps, succeed by beginning first, and by attempting +to pull down such a dangerous neighbour, but very often their +good designs are disappointed. In all appearance they +proceed more safely, who, under such a fear, make themselves +strong and powerful at home. And this was the course which +Philip, King of Macedon, the father of Perseus, took, when he +thought to be invaded by the Romans.</p> +<p>The greatness of Rome gave Carthage very anxious thoughts, and +it rather seems that they entered into the second Punic War more +for fear the Romans should have the universal empire, than out of +any ambition to lord it themselves over the whole world. +Their design was virtuous, and peradventure wise to endeavour at +some early interruption to a rival that grew so fast. +However, we see they miscarried, though their armies were led by +Hannibal. But fortune which had determined the dominion of +the earth for Rome, did, perhaps, lead them into the fatal +counsel of passing the Eber contrary to the articles of peace +concluded with Asdrubal, and of attacking Saguntum before they +had sufficiently recovered of the wounds they had suffered in the +wars about Sicily, Sardinia, and with their own rebels. If +the high courage of Hannibal had not driven the commonwealth into +a new war while it was yet faint and weak, and if they had been +suffered to pursue their victories in Spain, and to get firm +footing in that rich, warlike, and then populous country, very +probably in a few years they might have been a more equal match +for the Roman people. It is true, if the Romans had +endeavoured, at the conquest of Spain, and if they had disturbed +the Carthaginians in that country, the war must have been +unavoidable, because it was evident in that age, and will be +apparent in the times we live in, that whatever foreign power, +already grown great, can add to its dominion the possession of +Spain, will stand fair for universal empire.</p> +<p>But unless some such cogent reason of state, as is here +instanced, intervene, in all appearance the best way for a nation +that apprehends the growing power of any neighbour is to fortify +itself within; we do not mean by land armies, which rather +debilitate than strengthen a country, but by potent navies, by +thrift in the public treasure, care of the people’s trade, +and all the other honest and useful arts of peace.</p> +<p>By such an improvement of our native strength, agreeable to +the laws and to the temper of a free nation, England without +doubt may be brought to so good a posture and condition of +defending itself, as not to apprehend any neighbour jealous of +its strength or envious of its greatness.</p> +<p>And to this end we open these schemes, that a wise Government +under which we live, not having any designs to become arbitrary, +may see what materials they have to work upon, and how far our +native wealth is able to second their good intentions of +preserving us a rich and a free people.</p> +<p>Having said something of the number of our inhabitants, we +shall proceed to discourse of their different degrees and ranks, +and to examine who are a burden and who are a profit to the +public, for by how much every part and member of the commonwealth +can be made useful to the whole, by so much a nation will be more +and more a gainer in this balance of trade which we are to treat +of.</p> +<p>Mr. King, from the assessments on births and marriages, and +from the polls, has formed the scheme here inserted, of the +ranks, degrees, titles and qualifications of the people. He +has done it so judiciously, and upon such grounds, that is well +worth the careful perusal of any curious person, from thence we +shall make some observations in order to put our present matter +in a clearer light.</p> +<p>First, this scheme detects their error, who in the calculation +they frame contemplate nothing but the wealth and plenty they see +in rich cities and great towns, and from thence make a judgment +of the kingdom’s remaining part, and from this view +conclude that taxes and payments to the public do mostly arise +from the gentry and better sort, by which measures they neither +contrive their imposition aright, nor are they able to give a +true estimate what it shall produce; but when we have divided the +inhabitants of England into their proper classes, it will appear +that the nobility and gentry are but a small part of the whole +body of the people.</p> +<p>Believing that taxes fell chiefly upon the better sort, they +care not what they lay, as thinking they will not be felt; but +when they come to be levied, they either fall short, and so run +the public into an immense debt, or they light so heavily upon +the poorer sort, as to occasion insufferable clamours; and they, +whose proper business it was to contrive these matters better +have been so unskilful, that the legislative power has been more +than once compelled for the peoples’ ease to give new +funds, instead of others that had been ill projected.</p> +<p>This may be generally said, that all duties whatsoever upon +the consumption of a large produce, fall with the greatest weight +upon the common sort, so that such as think in new duties that +they chiefly tax the rich will find themselves quite mistaken; +for either their fund must yield little, or it must arise from +the whole body of the people, of which the richer sort are but a +small proportion.</p> +<p>And though war, and national debts and engagements, might +heretofore very rationally plead for excises upon our home +consumption, yet now there is a peace, it is the concern of every +man that loves his country to proceed warily in laying new ones, +and to get off those which are already laid as fast as ever he +can. High customs and high excises both together are +incompatible, either of them alone are to be endured, but to have +them co-exist is suffered in no well-governed nation. If +materials of foreign growth were at an easy rate, a high price +might be the better borne in things of our own product, but to +have both dear at once (and by reason of the duties laid upon +them) is ruinous to the inferior rank of men, and this ought to +weigh more with us, when we consider that even of the common +people a subdivision is to be made, of which one part subsist +from their own havings, arts, labour, and industry; and the other +part subsist a little from their own labour, but chiefly from the +help and charity of the rank that is above them. For +according to Mr. King’s scheme—</p> +<p>The nobility and gentry, with their families and retainers, +the persons in offices, merchants, persons in the law, the +clergy, freeholders, farmers, persons in sciences and liberal +arts, shopkeepers, and tradesmen, handicrafts, men, naval +officers, with the families and dependants upon all these +altogether, make up the number of 2,675,520 heads.</p> +<p>The common seamen, common soldiers, labouring people, and +out-servants, cottagers, paupers, and their families, with the +vagrants, make up the number of 2,825,000 heads.</p> +<p>In all 5,500,520 heads.</p> +<p>So that here seems a majority of the people, whose chief +dependence and subsistence is from the other part, which majority +is much greater, in respect of the number of families, because +500,000 families contribute to the support of 850,000 +families. In contemplation of which, great care should be +taken not to lay new duties upon the home consumption, unless +upon the extremest necessities of the State; for though such +impositions cannot be said to fall directly upon the lower rank, +whose poverty hinders them from consuming such materials (though +there are few excises to which the meanest person does not pay +something), yet indirectly, and by unavoidable consequences, they +are rather more affected by high duties upon our home-consumption +than the wealthier degree of people, and so we shall find the +case to be, if we look carefully into all the distinct ranks of +men there enumerated.</p> +<p>First, as to the nobility and gentry, they must of necessity +retrench their families and expenses, if excessive impositions +are laid upon all sorts of materials for consumption, from whence +follows, that the degree below them of merchants, shopkeepers, +tradesmen, and artisans, must want employment.</p> +<p>Secondly, as to the manufactures, high excises in time of +peace are utterly destructive to that principal part of +England’s wealth; for if malt, coals, salt, leather, and +other things, bear a great price, the wages of servants, workmen, +and artificers, will consequently rise, for the income must bear +some proportion with the expense; and if such as set the poor to +work find wages for labour or manufacture advance upon them, they +must rise in the price of their commodity, or they cannot live, +all which would signify little, if nothing but our own dealings +among one another were thereby affected; but it has a consequence +far more pernicious in relation to our foreign trade, for it is +the exportation of our own product that must make England rich; +to be gainers in the balance of trade, we must carry out of our +own product what will purchase the things of foreign growth that +are needful for our own consumption, with some overplus either in +bullion or goods to be sold in other countries, which overplus is +the profit a nation makes by trade, and it is more or less +according to the natural frugality of the people that export, or +as from the low price of labour and manufacture they can afford +the commodity cheap, and at a rate not to be undersold in foreign +markets. The Dutch, whose labour and manufactures are dear +by reason of home excises, can notwithstanding sell cheap abroad, +because this disadvantage they labour under is balanced by the +parsimonious temper of their people; but in England, where this +frugality is hardly to be introduced, if the duties upon our home +consumption are so large as to raise considerably the price of +labour and manufacture, all our commodities for exportation must +by degrees so advance in the prime value, that they cannot be +sold at a rate which will give them vent in foreign markets, and +we must be everywhere undersold by our wiser neighbours. +But the consequence of such duties in times of peace will fall +most heavily upon our woollen manufactures, of which most have +more value from the workmanship than the material; and if the +price of this workmanship be enhanced, it will in a short course +of time put a necessity upon those we deal with of setting up +manufactures of their own, such as they can, or of buying goods +of the like kind and use from nations that can afford them +cheaper. And in this point we are to consider, that the +bulk of our woollen exports does not consist in draperies made of +the fine wool, peculiar to our soil, but is composed of coarse +broad cloths, such as Yorkshire cloths, kerseys, which make a +great part of our exports, and may be, and are made of a coarser +wool, which is to be had in other countries. So that we are +not singly to value ourselves upon the material, but also upon +the manufacture, which we should make as easy as we can, by not +laying over-heavy burdens upon the manufacturer. And our +woollen goods being two-thirds of our foreign exports, it ought +to be the chief object of the public care, if we expect to be +gainers in the balance of trade, which is what we hunt after in +these inquiries.</p> +<p>Thirdly, as to the lower rank of all, which we compute at +2,825,000 heads, a majority of the whole people, their principal +subsistence is upon the degrees above them, and if those are +rendered uneasy these must share in the calamity, but even of +this inferior sort no small proportion contribute largely to +excises, as labourers and out-servants, which likewise affect the +common seamen, who must thereupon raise their wages or they will +not have wherewithal to keep their families left at home, and the +high wages of seamen is another burden upon our foreign +traffic. As to the cottagers, who are about a fifth part of +the whole people, some duties reach even them, as those upon +malt, leather, and salt, but not much because of their slender +consumption, but if the gentry, upon whose woods and gleanings +they live, and who employ them in day labour, and if the +manufacturers, for whom they card and spin, are overburdened with +duties, they cannot afford to give them so much for their labour +and handiwork, nor to yield them those other reliefs which are +their principal subsistence, for want of which these miserable +wretches must perish with cold and hunger.</p> +<p>Thus we see excises either directly or indirectly fall upon +the whole body of the people, but we do not take notice of these +matters as receding from our former opinion. On the +contrary, we still think them the most easy and equal way of +taxing a nation, and perhaps it is demonstrable that if we had +fallen into this method at the beginning of the war of raising +the year’s expense within the year by excises, England had +not been now indebted so many millions, but what was advisable +under such a necessity and danger is not to be pursued in times +of peace, especially in a country depending so much upon trade +and manufactures.</p> +<p>Our study now ought to be how those debts may be speedily +cleared off, for which these new revenues are the funds, that +trade may again move freely as it did heretofore, without such a +heavy clog; but this point we shall more amply handle when we +come to speak of our payments to the public.</p> +<p>Mr. King divides the whole body of the people into two +principal classes, viz.:—</p> +<table> +<tr> +<td><p>Increasing the wealth of the kingdom</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,675,520 heads.</p> +</td> +</tr> +<tr> +<td><p>Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom</p> +</td> +<td><p style="text-align: right">2,825,000 heads.</p> +</td> +</tr> +</table> +<p>By which he means that the first class of the people from +land, arts, and industry maintain themselves, and add every year +something to the nation’s general stock, and besides this, +out of their superfluity, contribute every year so much to the +maintenance of others.</p> +<p>That of the second class some partly maintain themselves by +labour (as the heads of the cottage families), but that the rest, +as most of the wives and children of these, sick and impotent +people, idle beggars and vagrants, are nourished at the cost of +others, and are a yearly burden to the public, consuming annually +so much as would be otherwise added to the nation’s general +stock.</p> +<p>The bodies of men are, without doubt, the most valuable +treasure of a country, and in their sphere the ordinary people +are as serviceable to the commonwealth as the rich if they are +employed in honest labour and useful arts, and such being more in +number do more contribute to increase the nation’s wealth +than the higher rank.</p> +<p>But a country may be populous and yet poor (as were the +ancient Gauls and Scythians), so that numbers, unless they are +well employed, make the body politic big but unwieldy, strong but +unactive, as to any uses of good government.</p> +<p>Theirs is a wrong opinion who think all mouths profit a +country that consume its produce, and it may be more truly +affirmed, that he who does not some way serve the commonwealth, +either by being employed or by employing others, is not only a +useless, but a hurtful member to it.</p> +<p>As it is charity, and what we indeed owe to human kind, to +make provision for the aged, the lame, the sick, blind, and +impotent, so it is a justice we owe to the commonwealth not to +suffer such as have health, and who might maintain themselves, to +be drones and live upon the labour of others.</p> +<p>The bulk of such as are a burden to the public consists in the +cottagers and paupers, beggars in great cities and towns, and +vagrants.</p> +<p>Upon a survey of the hearth books, made in Michaelmas, 1685, +it was found that of the 1,300,000 houses in the whole kingdom, +those of one chimney amounted to 554,631, but some of these +having land about them, in all our calculations, we have computed +the cottagers but at 500,000 families; but of these, a large +number may get their own livelihood, and are no charge to the +parish, for which reason Mr. King very judiciously computes his +cottagers and paupers, decreasing the wealth of the nation but at +400,000 families, in which account he includes the poor-houses in +cities, towns, and villages, besides which he reckons 30,000 +vagrants, and all these together to make up 1,330,000 heads.</p> +<p>This is a very great proportion of the people to be a burden +upon the other part, and is a weight upon the land interest, of +which the landed gentlemen must certainly be very sensible.</p> +<p>If this vast body of men, instead of being expensive, could be +rendered beneficial to the commonwealth, it were a work, no +doubt, highly to be promoted by all who love their country.</p> +<p>It seems evident, to such as have considered these matters, +and who have observed how they are ordered in nations under a +good polity, that the number of such who through age or impotence +stand in real need of relief, is but small and might be +maintained for very little, and that the poor rates are swelled +to the extravagant degree we now see them at by two sorts of +people, one of which, by reason of our slack administration, is +suffered to remain in sloth, and the other, through a defect in +our constitution, continue in wretched poverty for want of +employment, though willing enough to undertake it.</p> +<p>All this seems capable of a remedy, the laws may be armed +against voluntary idleness, so as to prevent it, and a way may +probably be found out to set those to work who are desirous to +support themselves by their own labour; and if this could be +brought about, it would not only put a stop to the course of that +vice which is the consequence of an idle life, but it would +greatly tend to enrich the commonwealth, for if the industry of +not half the people maintain in some degree the other part, and, +besides, in times of peace did add every year near two million +and a half to the general stock of England, to what pitch of +wealth and greatness might we not be brought, if one limb were +not suffered to draw away the nourishment of the other, and if +all the members of the body politic were rendered useful to +it?</p> +<p>Nature, in her contrivances, has made every part of a living +creature either for ornament or use; the same should be in a +politic institution rightly governed.</p> +<p>It may be laid down for an undeniable truth, that where all +work nobody will want, and to promote this would be a greater +charity and more meritorious than to build hospitals, which very +often are but so many monuments of ill-gotten riches attended +with late repentance.</p> +<p>To make as many as possible of these 1,330,000 persons +(whereof not above 330,000 are children too young to work) who +now live chiefly upon others get themselves a large share of +their maintenance would be the opening a new vein of treasure of +some millions sterling per annum; it would be a present ease to +every particular man of substance, and a lasting benefit to the +whole body of the kingdom, for it would not only nourish but +increase the numbers of the people, of which many thousands +perish every year by those diseases contracted under a slothful +poverty.</p> +<p>Our laws relating to the poor are very numerous, and this +matter has employed the care of every age for a long time, though +but with little success, partly through the ill execution, and +partly through some defect in the very laws.</p> +<p>The corruptions of mankind are grown so great that, +now-a-days, laws are not much observed which do not in a manner +execute themselves; of this nature are those laws which relate to +bringing in the Prince’s revenue, which never fail to be +put in execution, because the people must pay, and the Prince +will be paid; but where only one part of the constitution, the +people, are immediately concerned, as in laws relating to the +poor, the highways, assizes, and other civil economy, and good +order in the state, those are but slenderly regarded.</p> +<p>The public good being therefore, very often, not a motive +strong enough to engage the magistrate to perform his duty, +lawgivers have many times fortified their laws with penalties, +wherein private persons may have a profit, thereby to stir up the +people to put the laws in execution.</p> +<p>In countries depraved nothing proceeds well wherein particular +men do not one way or other find their account; and rather than a +public good should not go on at all, without doubt, it is better +to give private men some interest to set it forward.</p> +<p>For which reason it may be worth the consideration of such as +study the prosperity and welfare of England, whether this great +engine of maintaining the poor, and finding them work and +employment, may not be put in motion by giving some body of +undertakers a reasonable gain to put the machine upon its +wheels.</p> +<p>In order to which, we shall here insert a proposal delivered +to the House of Commons last session of Parliament, for the +better maintaining the impotent, and employing and setting to +work the other poor of this kingdom.</p> +<p>In matters of this nature, it is always good to have some +model or plan laid down, which thinking men may contemplate, +alter, and correct, as they see occasion; and the writer of these +papers does rather choose to offer this scheme, because he is +satisfied it was composed by a gentleman of great abilities, and +who has made both the poor rates, and their number, more his +study than any other person in the nation. The proposal is +as follows</p> +<h3><i>A Scheme for Setting the Poor to Work</i>.</h3> +<p>First, that such persons as shall subscribe and pay the sum of +£300,000 as a stock for and towards the better maintaining +the impotent poor, and for buying commodities and materials to +employ and set at work the other poor, be incorporated and made +one body politic, &c. By the name of the Governor and +Company for Maintaining and Employing the Poor of this +Kingdom.</p> +<p>By all former propositions, it was intended that the parishes +should advance several years’ rates to raise a stock, but +by this proposal the experiment is to be made by private persons +at their risk; and £300,000 may be judged a very good +stock, which, added to the poor rates for a certain number of +years, will be a very good fund for buying commodities and +materials for a million of money at any time. This +subscription ought to be free for everybody, and if the sum were +subscribed in the several counties of England and Wales, in +proportion to their poor rates, or the monthly assessment, it +would be most convenient; and provision may be made that no +person shall transfer his interest but to one of the same county, +which will keep the interest there during the term; and as to its +being one Corporation, it is presumed this will be most +beneficial to the public. For first, all disputes on +removes, which are very chargeable and burthensome, will be at an +end—this proposal intending, that wherever the poor are, +they shall be maintained or employed. Secondly, it will +prevent one county which shall be diligent, imposing on their +neighbours who may be negligent, or getting away their +manufactures from them. Thirdly, in case of fire, plague, +or loss of manufacture, the stock of one county may not be +sufficient to support the places where such calamities may +happen; and it is necessary the whole body should support every +particular member, so that hereby there will be a general care to +administer to every place according to their necessities.</p> +<p>Secondly, that the said Corporation be established for the +term of one-and-twenty years.</p> +<p>The Corporation ought to be established for one-and-twenty +years, or otherwise it cannot have the benefit the law gives in +case of infants, which is their service for their education; +besides, it will be some years before a matter of this nature can +be brought into practice.</p> +<p>Thirdly, that the said sum of £300,000 be paid in, and +laid out for the purposes aforesaid, to remain as a stock for and +during the said term of one-and-twenty years.</p> +<p>The subscription ought to be taken at the passing of the Act, +but the Corporation to be left at liberty to begin either the +Michaelmas or the Lady Day after, as they shall think fit. +And XXX per cent. to be paid at the subscribing to persons +appointed for that purpose, and the remainder before they begin +to act; but so as £300,000 shall be always in stock during +the term, notwithstanding any dividends or other disposition: and +an account thereof to be exhibited twice in every year upon oath, +before the Lord Chancellor for the time being.</p> +<p>Fourthly, that the said corporation do by themselves, or +agents in every parish of England, from and after the XXX day of +XXX during the said term of one-and-twenty years, provide for the +real impotent poor good and sufficient maintenance and reception, +as good or better than hath at any time within the space of XXX +years before the said XXX day of XXX been provided or allowed to +such impotent poor, and so shall continue to provide for such +impotent poor, and what other growing impotent poor shall happen +in the said parish during the said term.</p> +<p>By impotent poor is to be understood all infants and old and +decrepid persons not able to work; also persons who by sickness +or any accident are for the time unable to labour for themselves +or families; and all persons (not being fit for labour) who were +usually relieved by the money raised for the use of the poor; +they shall have maintenance, as good or better, as within XXX +years they used to have.</p> +<p>This does not directly determine what that shall be, nor is it +possible, by reason a shilling in one county is as much as two in +another; but it will be the interest of the Corporation that such +poor be well provided for, by reason the contrary will occasion +all the complaints or clamour that probably can be made against +the Corporation.</p> +<p>Fifthly, that the Corporation do provide (as well for all such +poor which on the said XXX day of XXX shall be on the poor books, +as for what other growing poor shall happen in the said term who +are or shall be able to labour or do any work) sufficient labour +and work proper for such persons to be employed in. And +that provision shall be made for such labouring persons according +to their labour, so as such provision doth not exceed +three-fourth parts as much as any other person would have paid +for such labour. And in case they are not employed and set +to work, then such persons shall, until materials or labour be +provided for them, be maintained as impotent poor; but so as such +persons who shall hereafter enter themselves on the poor’s +book, being able to labour, shall not quit the service of the +corporation, without leave, for the space of six months.</p> +<p>The Corporation are to provide materials and labour for all +that can work, and to make provision for them not exceeding +three-fourth parts as much as any other person would give for +such labour. For example, if another person would give one +of these a shilling, the Corporation ought to give but +ninepence. And the reason is plain, first, because the +Corporation will be obliged to maintain them and their families +in all exigences, which others are not obliged to do, and +consequently they ought not to allow so much as others. +Secondly, in case any persons able to labour, shall come to the +Corporation, when their agents are not prepared with materials to +employ them, by this proposal they are to allow them full +provision as impotent poor, until they find them work, which is +entirely in favour of the poor. Thirdly, it is neither +reasonable nor possible for the Corporation to provide materials +upon every occasion, for such persons as shall be entered with +them, unless they can be secure of such persons to work up those +materials; besides, without this provision, all the labouring +people of England will play fast and loose between their +employers and the Corporation, for as they are disobliged by one, +they will run to the other, and so neither shall be sure of +them.</p> +<p>Sixthly, that no impotent poor shall be removed out of the +parish where they dwell, but upon notice in writing given to the +churchwardens or overseers of the said parish, to what place of +provision he or she is removed.</p> +<p>It is judged the best method to provide for the impotent poor +in houses prepared for that purpose, where proper provision may +be made for several, with all necessaries of care and +maintenance. So that in some places one house will serve +the impotent poor of several parishes, in which case the parish +ought to know where to resort, to see if good provision be made +for them.</p> +<p>Seventhly, that in case provision be not made for the poor of +each parish, in manner as aforesaid (upon due notice given to the +agents of the Corporation) the said parish may order their poor +to be maintained, and deduct the sum by them expended out of the +next payments to be made to the said corporation by the said +parish.</p> +<p>In case any accident happens in a parish, either by sickness, +fall, casualty of fire, or other ways; and that the agent of the +Corporation is not present to provide for them, or having notice +doth not immediately do it, the parish may do it, and deduct so +much out of the next payment; but there must be provision made +for the notice, and in what time the Corporation shall provide +for them.</p> +<p>Eighthly, that the said Corporation shall have and receive for +the said one-and-twenty years, that is to say, from every parish +yearly, so much as such parish paid in any one year, to be +computed by a medium of seven years; namely, from the 25th of +March, 1690, to the 25th of March 1697, and to be paid +half-yearly; and besides, shall receive the benefit of the +revenues of all donations given to any parish, or which shall be +given during the said term, and all forfeitures which the law +gives to the use of the poor; and to all other sums which were +usually collected by the parish, for the maintenance of the +poor.</p> +<p>Whatever was raised for or applied to the use of the poor, +ought to be paid over to the Corporation; and where there are any +donations for maintaining the poor, it will answer the design of +the donor, by reason there will be better provision for the +maintenance of the poor than ever; and if that maintenance be so +good, as to induce further charities, no doubt the Corporation +ought to be entitled to them. But there are two objections +to this article; first that to make a medium by a time of war is +unreasonable. Secondly, to continue the whole tax for +one-and-twenty years, does not seem to give any benefit to the +kingdom in that time. To the first, it is true, we have a +peace, but trade is lower now than at any time during the war, +and the charge of the poor greater; and when trade will mend is +very uncertain. To the second, it is very plain, that +although the charge may be the same to a parish in the total, yet +it will be less to particular persons, because those who before +received alms, will now be enabled to be contributors; but +besides, the turning so many hundred thousand pounds a year +(which in a manner have hitherto been applied only to support +idleness) into industry; and the employing so many other idle +vagrants and sturdy beggars, with the product of their labour, +will altogether be a present benefit to the lands of England, as +well in the rents as in the value; and further the accidental +charities in the streets and at doors, is, by a very modest +computation, over and above the poor rates, at least +£300,000 per annum, which will be entirely saved by this +proposal, and the persons set at work; which is a further +consideration for its being well received, since the Corporation +are not allowed anything for this service.</p> +<p>The greater the encouragement is, the better the work will be +performed; and it will become the wisdom of the parliament in +what they do, to make it effectual; for should such an +undertaking as this prove ineffectual, instead of remedying, it +will increase the mischief.</p> +<p>Ninthly, that all the laws made for the provision of the poor, +and for punishing idle vagrant persons, be repealed, and one law +made to continue such parts as are found useful, and to add such +other restrictions, penalties, and provisions, as may effectually +attain the end of this great work.</p> +<p>The laws hereunto relating are numerous, but the judgment and +opinions given upon them are so various and contradictory, and +differ so in sundry places, as to be inconsistent with any one +general scheme of management.</p> +<p>Tenthly, that proper persons be appointed in every county to +determine all matters and differences which may arise between the +corporation and the respective parishes.</p> +<p>To prevent any ill usage, neglect or cruelty, it will be +necessary to make provision that the poor may tender their +complaints to officers of the parish; and that those officers +having examined the same, and not finding redress, may apply to +persons to be appointed in each county and each city for that +purpose, who may be called supervisors of the poor, and may have +allowance made them for their trouble; and their business may be +to examine the truth of such complaints; and in case either the +parish or corporation judge themselves aggrieved by the +determination of the said supervisors, provision may be made that +an appeal lie to the quarter sessions.</p> +<p>Eleventhly, that the corporation be obliged to provide for all +public beggars, and to put the laws into execution against public +beggars and idle vagrant persons.</p> +<p>Such of the public beggars as can work must be employed, the +rest to be maintained as impotent poor, but the laws to be +severely put in execution against those who shall ask any public +alms.</p> +<p>This proposal, which in most parts of it seems to be very +maturely weighed, may be a foundation for those to build upon who +have a public spirit large enough to embrace such a noble +undertaking.</p> +<p>But the common obstruction to anything of this nature is a +malignant temper in some who will not let a public work go on if +private persons are to be gainers by it. When they are to +get themselves, they abandon all sense of virtue; but are clothed +in her whitest robe when they smell profit coming to another, +masking themselves with a false zeal to the commonwealth, where +their own turn is not to be served. It were better, indeed, +that men would serve their country for the praise and honour that +follow good actions, but this is not to be expected in a nation +at least leaning towards corruption, and in such an age it is as +much as we can hope for if the prospect of some honest gain +invites people to do the public faithful service. For which +reason, in any undertaking where it can be made apparent that a +great benefit will accrue to the commonwealth in general, we +ought not to have an evil eye upon what fair advantages +particular men may thereby expect to reap, still taking care to +keep their appetite of getting within moderate bounds, laying all +just and reasonable restraints upon it, and making due provision +that they may not wrong or oppress their fellow subjects.</p> +<p>It is not to be denied, but that if fewer hands were suffered +to remain idle, and if the poor had full employment, it would +greatly tend to the common welfare, and contribute much towards +adding every year to the general stock of England.</p> +<p>Among the methods that we have here proposed of employing the +poor, and making the whole body of the people useful to the +public, we think it our duty to mind those who consider the +common welfare of looking with a compassionate eye into the +prisons of this kingdom, where many thousands consume their time +in vice and idleness, wasting the remainder of their fortunes, or +lavishing the substance of their creditors, eating bread and +doing no work, which is contrary to good order, and pernicious to +the commonwealth.</p> +<p>We cannot therefore but recommend the thoughts of some good +bill that may effectually put an end to this mischief so +scandalous in a trading country, which should let no hands remain +useless.</p> +<p>It is not at all difficult to contrive such a bill as may +relieve and release the debtor, and yet preserve to his creditors +all their fair, just, and honest rights and interest.</p> +<p>And so we have in this matter endeavoured to show that to +preserve and increase the people, and to make their numbers +useful, are methods conducing to make us gainers in the balance +of trade.</p> +<h2>FOOTNOTES.</h2> +<p><a name="footnote75"></a><a href="#citation75" +class="footnote">[75]</a> In the book there are no figures +in the table at all.—DP.</p> +<p><a name="footnote76"></a><a href="#citation76" +class="footnote">[76]</a> In the book there are no figures +in the table at all.—DP.</p> +<p><a name="footnote77"></a><a href="#citation77" +class="footnote">[77]</a> In the book there are no figures +in the table at all.—DP.</p> +<p><a name="footnote148"></a><a href="#citation148" +class="footnote">[148]</a> This table spreads over two +opposite pages in the book. It has been split down the +middle for this eBook.—DP.]</p> +<p>***END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK ESSAYS ON MANKIND AND POLITICAL +ARITHMETIC***</p> +<pre> + + +***** This file should be named 5619-h.htm or 5619-h.zip****** + + +This and all associated files of various formats will be found in: +http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/5/6/1/5619 + + + +Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions +will be renamed. + +Creating the works from public domain print editions means that no +one owns a United States copyright in these works, so the Foundation +(and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United States without +permission and without paying copyright royalties. Special rules, +set forth in the General Terms of Use part of this license, apply to +copying and distributing Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works to +protect the PROJECT GUTENBERG-tm concept and trademark. 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You can also find out about how to make a +donation to Project Gutenberg, and how to get involved. + + +**Welcome To The World of Free Plain Vanilla Electronic Texts** + +**eBooks Readable By Both Humans and By Computers, Since 1971** + +*****These eBooks Were Prepared By Thousands of Volunteers!***** + + +Title: Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic + +Author: Sir William Petty + +Release Date: May, 2004 [EBook #5619] +[Yes, we are more than one year ahead of schedule] +[This file was first posted on July 23, 2002] + +Edition: 10 + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: ASCII + +*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK, MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETIC *** + + + + +Transcribed from the Cassell & Co. edition by David Price, email +ccx074@coventry.ac.uk + + + + +ESSAYS ON MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETIC + + + + +Contents: + +Introduction (by Henry Morley) +Another Essays + The stationer to the reader + The principal points of this discourse + Of the growth of the city of London +Further observation upon the Dublin bills + The stationer to the reader + A postscript to the stationer +Two essays in political arithmetic + To the king's most excellent majesty + An essay in political arithmetic +Five essays in political arithmetic + The first essay + The second essay + The third essay. + The fourth essay + The fifth essay +Of the people of England (by Gregory King) + + + +INTRODUCTION. + + + +William Petty, born on the 26th of May, 1623, was the son of a +clothier at Romsey in Hampshire. After education at the Romsey +Grammar School, he continued his studies at Caen in Normandy. There +he supported himself by a little trade while learning French, and +advancing his knowledge of Greek, Latin, Mathematics, and much else +that belonged to his idea of a liberal education. His idea was +large. He came back to England, and had for a short time a place in +the Navy; but at the age of twenty he went abroad again, and was +away three years, studying actively at Utrecht, Leyden, and +Amsterdam, and also in Paris. In Paris he assisted Thomas Hobbes in +drawing diagrams for his treatise on optics. At the age of twenty- +four Petty took out a patent for the invention of a copying machine. +It was described in a folio pamphlet "On Double Writing." That was +in 1647, in Civil War time, and although Petty followed Hobbes in +his studies, he did not share the philosopher's political opinions, +but held with the Parliament. In 1648 he added to his former +pamphlet a "Declaration concerning the newly invented Art of Double +Writing." + +Samuel Hartlib, the large-hearted Pole, who in those days spent his +worldly means in England for the advancement of agriculture and of +education, and other aids to the well-being of a nation, had caused +Milton to write his letter on education, as has been shown in the +Introduction to the hundred and twenty-first volume of this Library, +which contains that Letter together with Milton's Areopagitica. +Young Petty's first published writing was a Letter to Hartlib on +Education, entitled "The Advice of W. P. to Mr. Samuel Hartlib for +the Advancement of some Particular Parts of Learning." This +appeared in 1648, when Petty's age was twenty-five, and its aim was +to suggest a wider view of the whole field of education than had +been possible in the Middle Ages, of which schools and colleges were +then preserving the traditions, as they do still here and there to +some extent. This pamphlet has been reprinted in the sixth volume +of the "Harleian Miscellany." William Petty wished the training of +the young to be in several respects more practical. + +His own activity of mind caused him to settle at Oxford, where he +taught anatomy and chemistry, which he had been studying abroad. He +had read with Hobbes the writings of Vesalius, the great founder of +modern practical anatomy. In 1649 William Petty graduated at Oxford +as Doctor of Medicine, obtained a fellowship at Brasenose, and +practised. In 1650 he surprised the public by restoring the action +of the lungs in a woman who had been hanged for infanticide, and so +restoring her to life. + +Dr. Petty now took his place at Oxford among the energetic men of +science who had been inspired by the teaching of Francis Bacon to +seek knowledge by direct experiment, and to value knowledge above +all things for its power of advancing the welfare of man. The +headquarters of these workers were at Oxford, and in London at +Gresham College. + +In 1650 Petty was made Professor of Anatomy at Oxford, and it is a +characteristic illustration of his great activity of mind that he +was at the same time Professor of Music at Gresham College. Music +had then a high place in the Seven Sciences, as that use of +regulated numbers which expressed the harmonies of the created +world. The Seven Sciences were divided into three of the Trivium, +and four of the Quadrivium. The three of the Trivium concerned the +use of speech; they were Grammar, Rhetoric, and Logic. The four of +the Quadrivium concerned number and measure; they were Arithmetic, +Geometry, Music; and Astronomy, which led up straight to God. +Advance to Music might be represented in the student's mind by his +reaching to a sense of the harmonious relation of all his studies, +which, so to speak, lived in his mind as a single well-proportioned +thought. + +In 1652 Dr. Petty was sent to Ireland as physician to the army of +the Commonwealth. While there his active mind observed that the +Survey on which the Government had based its distribution of +fortified lands to the soldiers had been "most inefficiently and +absurdly managed." He obtained the commission to make a fresh +Survey, which he completed accurately in thirteen months, and by +which he obtained in payments from the Government and from other +persons interested ten thousand pounds. By investing this in the +purchase of soldiers' claims, he secured for himself an Irish estate +of fifty thousand acres in the county of Kerry, opened upon it mines +and quarries, developed trade in timber, and set up a fishery. John +Evelyn said of him "that he had never known such another genius, and +that if Evelyn were a prince he would make Petty his second +councillor at least." Henry Cromwell as Lord Deputy in Ireland made +Petty his secretary. + +Petty's Maps were printed in 1685, two years before his death, as +"Hiberniae Delineatio quoad hactenus licuit perfectissima;" a +collection of thirty-six maps, with a portrait of Sir William Petty, +a work answering to its description as the most perfect delineation +of Ireland that had up to that time been obtained. There is a +coloured copy of Petty's maps in the British Museum, and also an +uncoloured copy, with the first five maps varying from those in the +coloured copy, and giving a General Map of Ireland, followed by Maps +of Leinster, Munster, Ulster, and Connaught. There was afterwards +published in duodecimo, without date, "A Geographical Description of +ye Kingdom of Ireland, collected from ye actual Survey made by Sir +William Petty, corrected and amended, engraven and published by Fra. +Lamb." This volume gives as its contents, "one general mapp, four +provincial mapps, and thirty-two county mapps; to which is added a +mapp of Great Brittaine and Ireland, together with an Index of the +whole." + +At the Restoration William Petty accepted the inevitable change, and +continued his service to the country. He was knighted by Charles +the Second, and appointed in 1661 Inspector-General of Ireland. He +entered Parliament. He was one of the first founders of the Royal +Society, established at the beginning of the reign of Charles the +Second; and the outcome of these scientific studies along the line +marked out by Francis Bacon, which had been actively pursued in +Oxford and at Gresham College. In 1663 he applied his ingenuity to +the invention of a swift double-bottomed ship, that made one or two +passages between England and Ireland, but was then lost in a storm. + +In 1670 Sir William Petty established on his lands at Kerry the +English settlement at the head of the bay of Kenmare. The building +of forty-two houses for the English settlers first laid the +foundations of the present town of Kenmare. "The population," +writes Lord Macaulay, "amounted to a hundred and eighty. The land +round the town was well cultivated. The cattle were numerous. Two +small barks were employed in fishing and trading along the coast. +The supply of herrings, pilchards, mackerel, and salmon, was +plentiful, and would have been still more plentiful had not the +beach been, in the finest part of the year, covered by multitudes of +seals, which preyed on the fish of the bay. Yet the seal was not an +unwelcome visitor: his fur was valuable; and his oil supplied light +through the long nights of winter. An attempt was made with great +success to set up ironworks. It was not yet the practice to employ +coal for the purpose of smelting; and the manufacturers of Kent and +Sussex had much difficulty in procuring timber at a reasonable +price. The neighbourhood of Kenmare was then richly wooded; and +Petty found it a gainful speculation to send ore thither." He +looked also for profit from the variegated marbles of adjacent +islands. Distant two days' journey over the mountains from the +nearest English, Petty's English settlement of Kenmare withstood all +surrounding dangers, and in 1688, a year after its founder's death, +defended itself successfully against a fierce and general attack. + +Sir William Petty died at London, on the 16th of December, 1687, and +was buried in his native town of Romsey. He had added to his great +wealth by marriage, and was the founder of the family in which +another Sir William Petty became Earl of Shelburne and first Marquis +of Lansdowne. The son of that first Marquis was Henry third Marquis +of Lansdowne, who took a conspicuous part in our political history +during the present century. + +Sir William Petty's survey of the land in Ireland, called the Down +Survey, because its details were set down in maps, remains the legal +record of the title on which half the land in Ireland is held. The +original maps are preserved in the Public Record Office at Dublin, +and many of Petty's MSS. are in the Bodleian Library at Oxford. + +He published in 1662 and 1685 a "Treatise of Taxes and +Contributions, the same being frequently to the present state and +affairs of Ireland," of which his view started from the general +opinion that men should contribute to the public charge according to +their interest in the public peace--that is, according to their +riches. "Now, he said, "there are two sorts of riches--one actual, +and the other potential. A man is actually and truly rich according +to what he eateth, drinketh, weareth, or in any other way really and +actually enjoyeth. Others are but potentially and imaginatively +rich, who though they have power over much, make little use of it, +these being rather stewards and exchangers for the other sort than +owners for themselves." He then showed how he considered that +"every man ought to contribute according to what he taketh to +himself, and actually enjoyeth." + +In 1674 Sir William Petty published a paper on "Duplicate +Proportion," and in 1679 he published in Latin a "Colloquy of David +with his Own Soul." In 1682 he published a tract called +"Quantulumcunque, concerning Money;" and "England's Guide to +Industry," in 1686. From 1682 to 1687, the year of his death, Sir +William Petty was drawing great attention to the "Essays on +Political Arithmetic," which are here reprinted. There was the +little "Essay in Political Arithmetic, concerning the People, +Housings, Hospitals of London and Paris;" published in 1682, again +in French in 1686, and again in English in 1687. There was the +little "Essay concerning the Multiplication of Mankind, together +with an Essay on the Growth of London," published in 1682, and again +in 1683 and 1686. There was in 1683, "Another Essay in Political +Arithmetic concerning the growth of the City of London." There were +"Farther Considerations on the Dublin Bills of Mortality," in 1686; +and "Five Essays on Political Arithmetic" (in French and English), +"Observations upon the Cities of London and Rome," in 1687, the last +year of Sir William Petty's life. Other writings of his were +published in his lifetime, or have been published since his death. +He was in the study of political economy one of the most ingenious +and practical thinkers before the days of Adam Smith. + +But the interest of those "Essays in Political Arithmetic" lies +chiefly in the facts presented by so trustworthy an authority. +London had become in the time of the Stuarts the most populous city +in Europe, if not in the world. This Sir William Petty sought to +prove against the doubts of foreign and other critics, and his +"Political Arithmetic" was an endeavour to determine the relative +strength in population of the chief cities of England, France, and +Holland. His application of arithmetic in the first of these essays +to a census of the population at the Day of Judgment he himself +spoke of slightingly. It is a curious example of a bygone form of +theological discussion. But his tables and his reasonings upon them +grow in interest as he attempts his numbering of the people in the +reign of James II. by collecting facts upon which his deductions +might be founded. The references to the deaths by Plague in London +before the cleansing of the town by the great fire of 1666 are very +suggestive; and in one passage there is incidental note of delay in +the coming of the Plague then due, without reckoning the change made +in conditions of health by the rebuilding. Nobody knew, and no one +even now can calculate, how many lives the Fire of London saved. + +There was in Petty's time no direct numbering of the people. The +first census in this country was not until more than a hundred years +after Sir William Petty's death, although he points out in these +essays how easily it could be established, and what useful +information it would give. There was a census taken at Rome 566 +years before Christ. But the first census in Great Britain was +taken in 1801, under provision of an Act passed on the last day of +the year 1800, to secure a numbering of the population every ten +years. Ireland was not included in the return; the first census in +Ireland was not until the year 1813. + +Sir William Petty had to base his calculations partly upon the Bills +of Mortality, which had been imperfectly begun under Elizabeth, but +fell into disuse, and were revived, as a weekly record of the number +of deaths, beginning on the 29th of October, 1603; notices of +diseases first appeared in them in 1629. The weekly bills were +published every Thursday, and any householder could have them +supplied to him for four shillings a year. These essays will show +how inferences as to the number of the living were drawn from the +number of the dead. And even now our Political Arithmetic depends +too much upon rough calculations made from the death register. It +is seven years since the last census; we have lost count of the +changes in our population to a very great extent, and have to wait +three years before our reckoning can be made sure. The interval +should be reduced to five years. + +Another of Sir William Petty's helps in the arithmetic of population +was the Chimney Tax, a revival of the old fumage or hearth-money-- +smoke farthings, as the people called them--once paid, according to +Domesday Book, for every chimney in a house. Charles the Second had +set up a chimney tax in the year 1662; the statistics of the +collection were at the service of Sir William Petty. The tax +outlived him but two years. It was promptly abolished in the first +year of William and Mary. + +The interest taken at home and abroad in these calculations of +Political Arithmetic set other men calculating, and reasoning upon +their calculations. The next worker in that direction was Gregory +King, Lancaster Herald, whose calculations immediately followed +those of Sir William Petty. Sir William Petty's essays extended +from 1682 until his death in 1687. Gregory King's estimates were +made in 1689. They were a study of the number population and +distribution of wealth among us at the time of the English +Revolution, and the unpublished results were first printed in a +chapter on "The People of England," which formed part a volume +published in 1699 as "An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a +People Gainers in the Balance of Trade, by the Author of the Essay +on Ways and Means." The volume was written by a member of +Parliament in the days of William and Mary, who desired to apply +principles of political economy to the maintenance of English wealth +and liberty. It has been wrongly scribed to Defoe; and its +suggestion of the plan a trading Corporation for solution of the +whole problem of relief to the poor who cannot work, and relief from +the poor who can, might indeed make another chapter in Defoe's +"Essay on Projects." The chapter, which gives the Political +Arithmetic of Gregory King, with such comment and suggestions as +might be expected from a liberal supporter of the Revolution, and +with this suggestion of a Corporation, is in itself a complete +essay. It follows naturally upon the Political Arithmetic of Sir +William Petty in close sequence of time, and in carrying a like +method of inquiry forward until it reaches a few more conclusions. +I have, therefore, added it to this volume. It seems, at any rate, +to show how Sir William Petty's books, of which the very small size +grieved the stationer, had a large influence on other minds; his +figures bearing fruit in a new search for facts and careful +reasoning on the condition of the country at one of the most +critical times in English history. + +H. M. + + + +THE STATIONER TO THE READER + + + +The ensuing essay concerning the growth of the city of London was +entitled "Another Essay," intimating that some other essay had +preceded it, which was not to be found. I having been much +importuned for that precedent essay, have found that the same was +about the growth, increase, and multiplication of mankind, which +subject should in order of nature precede that of the growth of the +city of London, but am not able to procure the essay itself, only I +have obtained from a gentleman, who sometimes corresponded with Sir +W. Petty, an extract of a letter from Sir William to him, which I +verily believe containeth the scope thereof; wherefore, I must +desire the reader to be content therewith, till more can be had. + + +The extract of a letter concerning the scope of an essay intended to +precede another essay concerning the growth of the City of London, +&c. An Essay in Political Arithmetic, concerning the value and +increase of People and Colonies. + +The scope of this essay is concerning people and colonies, and to +make way for "Another Essay" concerning the growth of the city of +London. I desire in this first essay to give the world some light +concerning the numbers of people in England, with Wales, and in +Ireland; as also of the number of houses and families wherein they +live, and of acres they occupy. + +2. How many live upon their lands, how many upon their personal +estates and commerce, and how many upon art, and labour; how many +upon alms, how many upon offices and public employments, and how +many as cheats and thieves; how many are impotents, children, and +decrepit old men. + +3. How many upon the poll-taxes in England, do pay extraordinary +rates, and how many at the level. + +4. How many men and women are prolific, and how many of each are +married or unmarried. + +5. What the value of people are in England, and what in Ireland at +a medium, both as members of the Church or Commonwealth, or as +slaves and servants to one another; with a method how to estimate +the same, in any other country or colony. + +6. How to compute the value of land in colonies, in comparison to +England and Ireland. + +7. How 10,000 people in a colony may be planted to the best +advantage. + +8. A conjecture in what number of years England and Ireland may be +fully peopled, as also all America, and lastly the whole habitable +earth. + +9. What spot of the earth's globe were fittest for a general and +universal emporium, whereby all the people thereof may best enjoy +one another's labours and commodities. + +10. Whether the speedy peopling of the earth would make + +(1) For the good of mankind. + +(2) To fulfil the revealed will of God. + +(3) To what prince or State the same would be most advantageous. + +11. An exhortation to all thinking men to solve the Scriptures and +other good histories, concerning the number of people in all ages of +the world, in the great cities thereof, and elsewhere. + +12. An appendix concerning the different number of sea-fish and +wild-fowl at the end of every thousand years since Noah's Flood. + +13. An hypothesis of the use of those spaces (of about 8,000 miles +through) within the globe of our earth, supposing a shell of 150 +miles thick. + +14. What may be the meaning of glorified bodies, in case the place +of the blessed shall be without the convex of the orb of the fixed +stars, if that the whole system of the world was made for the use of +our earth's men. + + + +THE PRINCIPAL POINTS OF THIS DISCOURSE + + + +1. That London doubles in forty years, and all England in three +hundred and sixty years. + +2. That there be, A.D. 1682, about 670,000 souls in London, and +about 7,400,000 in all England and Wales, and about 28,000,000 of +acres of profitable land. + +3. That the periods of doubling the people are found to be, in all +degrees, from between ten to twelve hundred years. + +4. That the growth of London must stop of itself before the year +1800. + +5. A table helping to understand the Scriptures, concerning the +number of people mentioned in them. + +6. That the world will be fully peopled within the next two +thousand years. + +7. Twelve ways whereby to try any proposal pretended for the public +good. + +8. How the city of London may be made (morally speaking) +invincible. + +9. A help to uniformity in religion. + +10. That it is possible to increase mankind by generation four +times more than at present. + +11. The plagues of London is the chief impediment and objection +against the growth of the city. + +12. That an exact account of the people is necessary in this +matter. + + + +OF THE GROWTH OF THE CITY OF LONDON: And of the Measures, Periods, +Causes, and Consequences thereof + + + +By the city of London we mean the housing within the walls of the +old city, with the liberties thereof, Westminster, the Borough of +Southwark, and so much of the built ground in Middlesex and Surrey, +whose houses are contiguous unto, or within call of those +aforementioned. Or else we mean the housing which stand upon the +ninety-seven parishes within the walls of London; upon the sixteen +parishes next without them; the six parishes of Westminster, and the +fourteen out-parishes in Middlesex and Surrey, contiguous to the +former, all which, 133 parishes, are comprehended within the weekly +bills of mortality. + +The growth of this city is measured. (1) By the quantity of ground, +or number of acres upon which it stands. (2) By the number of +houses, as the same appears by the hearth-books and late maps. (3) +By the cubical content of the said housing. (4) By the flooring of +the same. (5) By the number of days' work, or charge of building +the said houses. (6) By the value of the said houses, according to +their yearly rent, and number of years' purchase. (7) By the number +of inhabitants; according to which latter sense only we make our +computations in this essay. + +Till a better rule can be obtained, we conceive that the proportion +of the people may be sufficiently measured by the proportion of the +burials in such years as were neither remarkable for extraordinary +healthfulness or sickliness. + +That the city hath increased in this latter sense appears from the +bills of mortality represented in the two following tables, viz., +one whereof is a continuation for eighteen years, ending 1682, of +that table which was published in the 117th page of the book of the +observations upon the London bills of mortality, printed in the year +1676. The other showeth what number of people died at a medium of +two years, indifferently taken, at about twenty years' distance from +each other. + +The first of the said two tables. + +A.D. 97 16 Out Buried Besides of Christened + Parishes Parishes Parishes in all the Plague +1665 5,320 12,463 10,925 28,708 68,596 9,967 +1666 1,689 3,969 5,082 10,740 1,998 8,997 +1667 761 6,405 8,641 15,807 35 10,938 +1668 796 6,865 9,603 17,267 14 11,633 +1669 1,323 7,500 10,440 19,263 3 12,335 +1670 1,890 7,808 10,500 20,198 11,997 +1671 1,723 5,938 8,063 15,724 5 12,510 +1672 2,237 6,788 9,200 18,225 5 12,593 +1673 2,307 6,302 8,890 17,499 5 11,895 +1674 2,801 7,522 10,875 21,198 3 11,851 +1675 2,555 5,986 8,702 17,243 1 11,775 +1676 2,756 6,508 9,466 18,730 2 12,399 +1677 2,817 6,632 9,616 19,065 2 12,626 +1678 3,060 6,705 10,908 20,673 5 12,601 +1679 3,074 7,481 11,173 21,728 2 12,288 +1680 3,076 7,066 10,911 21,053 12,747 +1681 3,669 8,136 12,166 23,971 13,355 +1682 2,975 7,009 10,707 20,691 12,653 + +According to which latter table there died as follows:- + + +THE LATTER OF THE SAID TWO TABLES + +There died in London at the medium between the years - + +1604 and 1605 . . . 5,135. A. +1621 and 1622 . . . 8,527. B. +1641 and 1642 . . . 11,883. C. +1661 and 1662 . . . 15,148. D. +1681 and 1682 . . . 22,331. E. + + +Wherein observe, that the number C is double to A and 806 over. +That D is double to B within 1,906. That C and D is double to A and +B within 293. That E is double to C within 1,435. That D and E is +double to B and C within 3,341; and that C and D and E are double to +A and B and C within 1,736; and that E is above quadruple to A. All +which differences (every way considered) do allow the doubling of +the people of London in 40 years to be a sufficient estimate thereof +in round numbers, and without the trouble of fractions. We also say +that 669,930 is near the number of people now in London, because the +burials are 22,331, which, multiplied by 30 (one dying yearly out of +30, as appears in the 94th page of the aforementioned observations), +maketh the said number; and because there are 84,000 tenanted houses +(as we are credibly informed), which, at 8 in each, makes 672,000 +souls; the said two accounts differing inconsiderably from each +other. + +We have thus pretty well found out in what number of years (viz., in +about 40) that the city of London hath doubled, and the present +number of inhabitants to be about 670,000. We must now also +endeavour the same for the whole territory of England and Wales. In +order whereunto, we first say that the assessment of London is about +an eleventh part of the whole territory, and, therefore, that the +people of the whole may well be eleven times that of London, viz., +about 7,369,000 souls; with which account that of the poll-money, +hearth-money, and the bishop's late numbering of the communicants, +do pretty well agree; wherefore, although the said number of +7,369,000 be not (as it cannot be) a demonstrated truth, yet it will +serve for a good supposition, which is as much as we want at +present. + +As for the time in which the people double, it is yet more hard to +be found. For we have good experience (in the said page 94 of the +aforementioned observations) that in the country but 1 of 50 die per +annum; and by other late accounts, that there have been sometimes +but 24 births for 23 burials. The which two points, if they were +universally and constantly true, there would be colour enough to say +that the people doubled but in about 1,200 years. As, for example, +suppose there be 600 people, of which let a fiftieth part die per +annum, then there shall die 12 per annum; and if the births be as 24 +to 23, then the increase of the people shall be somewhat above half +a man per annum, and consequently the supposed number of 600 cannot +be doubled but in 1,126 years, which, to reckon in round numbers, +and for that the aforementioned fractions were not exact, we had +rather call 1,200. + +There are also other good observations, that even in the country one +in about 30 or 32 per annum hath died, and that there have been five +births for four burials. Now, according to this doctrine, 20 will +die per annum out of the above 600, and 25 will be born, so as the +increase will be five, which is a hundred and twentieth part of the +said 600. So as we have two fair computations, differing from each +other as one to ten; and there are also several other good +observations for other measures. + +I might here insert, that although the births in this last +computation be 25 of 600, or a twenty-fourth part of the people, yet +that in natural possibility they may be near thrice as many, and +near 75. For that by some late observations, the teeming females +between 15 and 44 are about 180 of the said 600, and the males of +between 18 and 59 are about 180 also, and that every teeming woman +can bear a child once in two years; from all which it is plain that +the births may be 90 (and abating 15 for sickness, young abortions, +and natural barrenness), there may remain 75 births, which is an +eighth of the people, which by some observations we have found to be +but a two-and-thirtieth part, or but a quarter of what is thus shown +to be naturally possible. Now, according to this reckoning, if the +births may be 75 of 600, and the burials but 15, then the annual +increase of the people will be 60; and so the said 600 people may +double in ten years, which differs yet more from 1,200 above- +mentioned. Now, to get out of this difficulty, and to temper those +vast disagreements, I took the medium of 50 and 30 dying per annum, +and pitched upon 40; and I also took the medium between 24 births +and 23 burials, and 5 births for 4 burials, viz., allowing about 10 +births for 9 burials; upon which supposition there must die 15 per +annum out of the above-mentioned 600, and the births must be 16 and +two-thirds, and the increase one and two-thirds, or five-thirds of a +man, which number, compared with 1,800 thirds, or 600 men, gives 360 +years for the time of doubling (including some allowance for wars, +plagues, and famines, the effects thereof), though they be terrible +at the times and places where they happen, yet in a period of 360 +years is no great matter in the whole nation. For the plagues of +England in twenty years have carried away scarce an eightieth part +of the people of the whole nation; and the late ten years' civil +wars (the like whereof hath not been in several ages before) did +not take away above a fortieth part of the whole people. + +According to which account or measure of doubling, if there be now +in England and Wales 7,400,000 people, there were about 5,526,000 in +the beginning of Queen Elizabeth's reign, A.D. 1560, and about +2,000,000 at the Norman Conquest, of which consult the Doomsday +Book, and my Lord Hale's "Origination of Mankind." + +Memorandum.--That if the people double in 360 years, that the +present 320,000,000 computed by some learned men (from the measures +of all the nations of the world, their degrees of being peopled, and +good accounts of the people in several of them) to be now upon the +face of the earth, will within the next 2,000 years so increase as +to give one head for every two acres of land in the habitable part +of the earth. And then, according to the prediction of the +Scriptures, there must be wars, and great slaughter, &c. + +Wherefore, as an expedient against the above-mentioned difference +between 10 and 1,200 years, we do for the present, and in this +country, admit of 360 years to be the time wherein the people of +England do double, according to the present laws and practice of +marriages. + +Now, if the city double its people in 40 years, and the present +number be 670,000, and if the whole territory be 7,400,000, and +double in 360 years, as aforesaid, then by the underwritten table it +appears that A.D. 1840 the people of the city will be 10,718,880, +and those of the whole country but 10,917,389, which is but +inconsiderably more. Wherefore it is certain and necessary that the +growth of the city must stop before the said year 1840, and will be +at its utmost height in the next preceding period, A.D. 1800, when +the number of the city will be eight times its present number, +5,359,000. And when (besides the said number) there will be +4,466,000 to perform the tillage, pasturage, and other rural works +necessary to be done without the said city, as by the following +table, viz.:- + + + A.D. Burials People in People in + London England + 1565 2,568 77,040 5,526,929 +As in the } 1605 5,135 +former table } 1642 11,883 + } 1682 22,331 669,930 7,369,230 + 1722 44,662 + 1762 89,324 + 1802 178,648 5,359,440 9,825,650 + 1842 357,296 10,718,889 10,917,389 + + +Now, when the people of London shall come to be so near the people +of all England, then it follows that the growth of London must stop +before the said year 1842, as aforesaid, and must be at its greatest +height A.D. 1800, when it will be eight times more than now, with +above 4,000,000 for the service of the country and ports, as +aforesaid. + +Of the aforementioned vast difference between 10 years and 1,200 +years for doubling the people, we make this use, viz.:- To justify +the Scriptures and all other good histories concerning the number of +the people in ancient time. For supposing the eight persons who +came out of the Ark, increased by a progressive doubling in every +ten years, might grow in the first 100 years after the Flood from 8 +to 8,000, and that in 350 years after the Flood (whereabouts Noah +died) to 1,000,000 and by this time, 1682, to 320,000,000 (which by +rational conjecture are thought to be now in the world), it will not +be hard to compute how, in the intermediate years, the growths may +be made, according to what is set down in the following table, +wherein making the doubling to be ten years at first, and within +1,200 years at last, we take a discretionary liberty, but +justifiable by observations and the Scriptures for the rest, which +table we leave to be corrected by historians who know the bigness of +ancient cities, armies, and colonies in the respective ages of the +world, in the meantime affirming that without such difference in the +measures and periods for doubling (the extremes whereof we have +demonstrated to be real and true) it is impossible to solve what is +written in the Holy Scriptures and other authentic books. For if we +pitch upon any one number throughout for this purpose, 150 years is +the fittest of all round numbers; according to which there would +have been but 512 souls in the whole world in Moses' time (being 800 +years after the Flood), when 603,000 Israelites of above twenty +years old (besides those of other ages, tribes, and nations) were +found upon an exact survey appointed by God, whereas our table makes +12,000,000. And there would have been about 8,000 in David's time, +when were found 1,100,000, of above twenty years old (besides +others, as aforesaid) in Israel, upon the survey instigated by +Satan, whereas our table makes 32,000,000. And there would have +been but a quarter of a million about the birth of Christ, or +Augustus's time, when Rome and the Roman Empire were so great, +whereas our table makes 100,000,000. Where note, that the +Israelites in about 500 years, between their coming out of Egypt to +David's reign, increased from 603,000 to 1,100,000. + +On the other hand, if we pitch upon a less number, as 100 years, the +world would have been over-peopled 700 years since. Wherefore no +one number will solve the phenomena, and therefore we have supposed +several, in order to make the following table, which we again desire +historians to correct, according to what they find in antiquity +concerning the number of the people in each age and country of the +world. + +We did (not long since) assist a worthy divine, writing against some +sceptics, who would have baffled our belief of the resurrection, by +saying, that the whole globe of the earth could not furnish matter +enough for all the bodies that must rise at the last day, much less +would the surface of the earth furnish footing for so vast a number; +whereas we did (by the method afore mentioned) assert the number of +men now living, and also of those that had died since the beginning +of the world, and did withal show, that half the island of Ireland +would afford them all, not only footing to stand upon, but graves to +lie down in, for that whole number; and that two mountains in that +country were as weighty as all the bodies that had ever been from +the beginning of the world to the year 1680, when this dispute +happened. For which purpose I have digressed from my intended +purpose to insert this matter, intending to prosecute this hint +further upon some more proper occasion. + + +A TABLE SHOWING HOW THE PEOPLE MIGHT HAVE DOUBLED IN THE SEVERAL +AGES OF THE WORLD. + + A.D., after the Flood. +Periods of { 1 8 persons. +doubling { 10 16 + { 20 32 + { 30 64 + { 40 128 + In 10 years { 50 256 + { 60 512 + { 70 1,024 + { 80 2,048 + { 90 4,096 + { 100 8,000 and more. + { 120 years after + In 20 years { the Flood. 16,000 + { 140 32,000 + { 170 64,000 + 30 { + { 200 128,000 + 40 240 256,000 + 50 290 512,000 + 60 350 1,000,000 and more. + 70 420 2,000,000 + 100 520 4,000,000 + 190 710 8,000,000 + 290 1,000 16,000,000 in Moses' time. + 400 1,400 32,000,000 about David's time. + 550 1,950 64,000,000 + 750 2,700 128,000,000 about the birth of +Christ. + 1,000 3,700 256,000,000 + 300 { +In { 4,000 320,000,000 + 1,200 { + + +It is here to be noted, that in this table we have assigned a +different number of years for the time of doubling the people in the +several ages of the world, and might have done the same for the +several countries of the world, and therefore the said several +periods assigned to the whole world in the lump may well enough +consist with the 360 years especially assigned to England, between +this day and the Norman Conquest; and the said 360 years may well +enough serve for a supposition between this time and that of the +world's being fully peopled; nor do we lay any stress upon one or +the other in this disquisition concerning the growth of the city of +London. + +We have spoken of the growth of London, with the measures and +periods thereof; we come next to the causes and consequences of the +same. + +The causes of its growth from 1642 to 1682 may be said to have been +as follows, viz.:- From 1642 to 1650, that men came out of the +country to London, to shelter themselves from the outrages of the +Civil Wars during that time; from 1650 to 1660, the royal party came +to London for their more private and inexpensive living; from 1660 +to 1670, the king's friends and party came to receive his favours +after his happy restoration; from 1670 to 1680, the frequency of +plots and parliaments might bring extraordinary numbers to the city; +but what reasons to assign for the like increase from 1604 to 1642 I +know not, unless I should pick out some remarkable accident +happening in each part of the said period, and make that to be the +cause of this increase (as vulgar people make the cause of every +man's sickness to be what he did last eat), wherefore, rather than +so to say quidlibet de quolibet, I had rather quit even what I have +above said to be the cause of London's increase from 1642 to 1682, +and put the whole upon some natural and spontaneous benefits and +advantages that men find by living in great more than in small +societies, and shall therefore seek for the antecedent causes of +this growth in the consequences of the like, considered in greater +characters and proportions. + +Now, whereas in arithmetic, out of two false positions the truth is +extracted, so I hope out of two extravagant contrary suppositions to +draw forth some solid and consistent conclusion, viz.:- + +The first of the said two suppositions is, that the city of London +is seven times bigger than now, and that the inhabitants of it are +4,690,000 people, and that in all the other cities, ports, towns, +and villages, there are but 2,710,000 more. + +The other supposition is, that the city of London is but a seventh +part of its present bigness, and that the inhabitants of it are but +96,000, and that the rest of the inhabitants (being 7,304,000) do +cohabit thus: 104,000 of them in small cities and towns, and that +the rest, being 7,200,000, do inhabit in houses not contiguous to +one another, viz., in 1,200,000 houses, having about twenty-four +acres of ground belonging to each of them, accounting about +28,000,000 of acres to be in the whole territory of England, Wales, +and the adjacent islands, which any man that pleases may examine +upon a good map. + +Now, the question is, in which of these two imaginary states would +be the most convenient, commodious, and comfortable livings? + +But this general question divides itself into the several questions, +relating to the following particulars, viz.:- + +1. For the defence of the kingdom against foreign powers. + +2. For preventing the intestine commotions of parties and factions. + +3. For peace and uniformity in religion. + +4. For the administration of justice. + +5. For the proportionably taxing of the people, and easy levying +the same. + +6. For gain by foreign commerce. + +7. For husbandry, manufacture, and for arts of delight and +ornament. + +8. For lessening the fatigue of carriages and travelling. + +9. For preventing beggars and thieves. + +10. For the advancement and propagation of useful learning. + +11. For increasing the people by generation. + +12. For preventing the mischiefs of plagues and contagious. And +withal, which of the said two states is most practicable and +natural, for in these and the like particulars do lie the tests and +touchstones of all proposals that can be made for the public good. + +First, as to practicable, we say, that although our said extravagant +proposals are both in nature possible, yet it is not obvious to +every man to conceive how London, now seven times bigger than in the +beginning of Queen Elizabeth's reign, should be seven times bigger +than now it is, and forty-nine times bigger than A.D. 1560. To +which I say, 1. That the present city of London stands upon less +than 2,500 acres of ground, wherefore a city seven times as large +may stand upon 10,500 acres, which is about equivalent to a circle +of four miles and a half in diameter, and less than fifteen miles in +circumference. 2. That a circle of ground of thirty-five miles +semidiameter will bear corn, garden-stuff, fruits, hay, and timber, +for the 4,690,000 inhabitants of the said city and circle, so as +nothing of that kind need be brought from above thirty-five miles +distance from the said city; for the number of acres within the said +circle, reckoning two acres sufficient to furnish bread and drink- +corn for every head, and two acres will furnish hay for every +necessary horse; and that the trees which may grow in the hedgerows +of the fields within the said circle may furnish timber for 600,000 +houses. 3. That all live cattle and great animals can bring +themselves to the said city; and that fish can be brought from the +Land's End and Berwick as easily as now. 4. Of coals there is no +doubt: and for water, 20s. per family (or 600,000 pounds per annum +in the whole) will serve this city, especially with the help of the +New River. But if by practicable be understood that the present +state may be suddenly changed into either of the two above-mentioned +proposals, I think it is not practicable. Wherefore the true +question is, unto or towards which of the said two extravagant +states it is best to bend the present state by degrees, viz., +Whether it be best to lessen or enlarge the present city? In order +whereunto, we inquire (as to the first question) which state is most +defensible against foreign powers, saying, that if the above- +mentioned housing, and a border of ground, of three-quarters of a +mile broad, were encompassed with a wall and ditch of twenty miles +about (as strong as any in Europe, which would cost but a million, +or about a penny in the shilling of the house-rent for one year) +what foreign prince could bring an army from beyond seas, able to +beat--1. Our sea-forces, and next with horse harassed at sea, to +resist all the fresh horse that England could make, and then conquer +above a million of men, well united, disciplined, and guarded within +such a wall, distant everywhere three-quarters of a mile from the +housing, to elude the granadoes and great shot of the enemy? 2. As +to intestine parties and factions, I suppose that 4,690,000 people +united within this great city could easily govern half the said +number scattered without it, and that a few men in arms within the +said city and wall could also easily govern the rest unarmed, or +armed in such a manner as the Sovereign shall think fit. 3. As to +uniformity in religion, I conceive, that if St. Martin's parish (may +as it doth) consist of about 40,000 souls, that this great city also +may as well be made but as one parish, with seven times 130 chapels, +in which might not only be an uniformity of common prayer, but in +preaching also; for that a thousand copies of one judiciously and +authentically composed sermon might be every week read in each of +the said chapels without any subsequent repetition of the same, as +in the case of homilies. Whereas in England (wherein are near +10,000 parishes, in each of which upon Sundays, holy days, and other +extraordinary occasions there should be about 100 sermons annum, +making about a million of sermons per annum in the whole) it were a +miracle, if a million of sermons composed by so many men, and of so +many minds and methods, should produce uniformity upon the +discomposed understandings of about 8,000,000 of hearers. + +4. As to the administration of justice. If in this great city +shall dwell the owners of all the lands, and other valuable things +in England; if within it shall be all the traders, and all the +courts, offices, records, juries, and witnesses; then it follows +that justice may be done with speed and ease. + +5. As to the equality and easy levying of taxes. It is too certain +that London hath at some time paid near half the excise of England, +and that the people pay thrice as much for the hearths in London as +those in the country, in proportion to the people of each, and that +the charge of collecting these duties have been about a sixth part +of the duty itself. Now in this great city the excise alone +according to the present laws would not only be double to the whole +kingdom, but also more equal. And the duty of hearths of the said +city would exceed the present proceed of the whole kingdom. And as +for the customs we mention them not at present. + +6. Whether more would be gained by foreign commerce? The gain +which England makes by lead, coals, the freight of shipping, &c., +may be the same, for aught I see, in both cases. But the gain which +is made by manufactures will be greater as the manufacture itself is +greater and better. For in so vast a city manufactures will beget +one another, and each manufacture will be divided into as many parts +as possible, whereby the work of each artisan will be simple and +easy. As, for example, in the making of a watch, if one man shall +make the wheels, another the spring, another shall engrave the dial- +plate, and another shall make the cases, then the watch will be +better and cheaper than if the whole work be put upon any one man. +And we also see that in towns, and in the streets of a great town, +where all the inhabitants are almost of one trade, the commodity +peculiar to those places is made better and cheaper than elsewhere. +Moreover, when all sorts of manufactures are made in one place, +there every ship that goeth forth can suddenly have its loading of +so many several particulars and species as the port whereunto she is +bound can take off. Again, when the several manufactures are made +in one place, and shipped off in another, the carriage, postage, and +travelling charges, will enhance the price of such manufacture, and +lessen the gain upon foreign commerce. And lastly, when the +imported goods are spent in the port itself, where they are landed, +the carriage of the same into other places will create no further +charge upon such commodity; all which particulars tend to the +greater gain by foreign commerce. + +7. As for arts of delight and ornament. They are best promoted by +the greatest number of emulators. And it is more likely that one +ingenious curious man may rather be found out amongst 4,000,000 than +400 persons. But as for husbandry, viz., tillage and pasturage, I +see no reason, but the second state (when each family is charged +with the culture of about twenty-four acres) will best promote the +same. + +8. As for lessening the fatigue of carriage and travelling. + +The thing speaks for itself, for if all the men of business, and all +artisans, do live within five miles of each other, and if those who +live without the great city do spend only such commodities as grow +where they live, then the charge of carriage and travelling could be +little. + +9. As to the preventing of beggars and thieves. + +I do not find how the differences of the said two states should make +much difference in this particular; for impotents (which are but one +in about 600) ought to be maintained by the rest. 2. Those who are +unable to work, through the evil education of their parents, ought +(for aught I know) to be maintained by their nearest kindred, as a +just punishment upon them. 3. And those who cannot find work +(though able and willing to perform it), by reason of the unequal +application of hands to lands, ought to be provided for by the +magistrate and landlord till that can be done; for there need be no +beggars in countries where there are many acres of unimproved +improvable land to every head, as there are in England. As for +thieves, they are for the most part begotten from the same cause; +for it is against Nature that any man should venture his life, limb, +or liberty, for a wretched livelihood, whereas moderate labour will +produce a better. But of this see Sir Thomas More, in the first +part of his "Utopia." + +10. As to the propagation and improvement of useful learning. + +The same may be said concerning it as was above said concerning +manufactures, and the arts of delight and ornaments; for in the +great vast city there can be no so odd a conceit or design whereunto +some assistance may not be found, which in the thin, scattered way +of habitation may not be. + +11. As for the increase of people by generation. I see no great +difference from either of the two states, for the same may be +hindered or promoted in either from the same causes. + +12. As to the plague. + +It is to be remembered that one time with another a plague happeneth +in London once in twenty years, or thereabouts; for in the last +hundred years, between the years 1582 and 1682, there have been five +great plagues--viz., A.D. 1592, 1603, 1625, 1636, and 1665. And it +is also to be remembered that the plagues of London do commonly kill +one-fifth part of the inhabitants. Now if the whole people of +England do double but in 360 years, then the annual increase of the +same is but 20,000, and in twenty years 400,000. But if in the city +of London there should be 2,000,000 of people (as there will be +about sixty years hence), then the plague (killing one-fifth of +them, namely, 400,000 once in twenty years) will destroy as many in +one year as the whole nation can re-furnish in twenty; and +consequently the people of the nation shall never increase. But if +the people of London shall be above 4,000,000 (as in the first of +our two extravagant suppositions is premised), then the people of +the whole nation shall lessen above 20,000 per annum. So as if +people be worth 70 pounds per head (as hath elsewhere been shown), +then the said greatness of the city will be a damage to itself and +the whole nation of 1,400,000 pounds per annum, and so pro rata for +a greater or lesser number; wherefore to determine which of the two +states is best--that is to say, towards which of the said two states +authority should bend the present state, a just balance ought to be +made between the disadvantages from the plague, with the advantages +accruing from the other particulars above mentioned, unto which +balance a more exact account of the people, and a better rule for +the measure of its growth is necessary than what we have here given, +or are yet able to lay down. + + +POSTSCRIPT. + + +It was not very pertinent to a discourse concerning the growth of +the city of London to thrust in considerations of the time when the +whole world will be fully peopled; and how to justify the Scriptures +concerning the number of people mentioned in them; and concerning +the number of the quick and the dead that may rise at the last day, +&c. Nevertheless, since some friends, liking the said digressions +and impertinences (perhaps as sauce to a dry discourse) have desired +that the same might be explained and made out, I, therefore, say as +followeth:- + +1. If the number of acres in the habitable part of the earth be +under 50,000,000,000; if 20,000,000,000 of people are more than the +said number of acres will feed (few or no countries being so fully +peopled), and for that in six doublings (which will be in 2,000 +years) the present 320,000,000 will exceed the said 20,000,000,000. + +2. That the number of all those who have died since the Flood is +the sum of all the products made by multiplying the number of the +doubling periods mentioned in the first column of the last table, by +the number of people respectively affixed to them in the third +column of the same table, the said sum being divided by 40 (one +dying out of 40 per annum out of the whole mass of mankind), which +quotient is 12,570,000,000; whereunto may be added, for those that +died before the Flood, enough to make the last-mentioned number +20,000,000,000, as the full number of all that died from the +beginning of the world to the year 1682, unto which, if 320,000,000, +the number of those who are now alive, be added, the total of the +quick and the dead will amount but unto one fifth part of the graves +which the surface of Ireland will afford, without ever putting two +bodies into any one grave; for there be in Ireland 28,000 square +English miles, each whereof will afford about 4,000,000 of graves, +and consequently above 114,000,000,000 of graves, viz., about five +times the number of the quick and the dead which should arise at the +last day, in case the same had been in the year 1682. + +3. Now, if there may be place for five times as many graves in +Ireland as are sufficient for all that ever died, and if the earth +of one grave weigh five times as much as the body interred therein, +then a turf less than a foot thick pared off from a fifth part of +the surface of Ireland, will be equivalent in bulk and weight to all +the bodies that ever were buried, and may serve as well for that +purpose as the two mountains aforementioned in the body of this +discourse. From all which it is plain how madly they were mistaken +who did so petulantly vilify what the Holy Scriptures have +delivered. + + + + +FURTHER OBSERVATION UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS; Or, Accounts of the +Houses, Hearths, Baptisms, and Burials in that City. + + + + +THE STATIONER TO THE READER. + + + +I have not thought fit to make any alteration of the first edition, +but have only added a new table, with observation upon it, placing +the same in the front of what was before, which, perhaps, might have +been as well placed after the like table at the eighth page of the +first edition. + + +DUBLIN, 1682. + +Parishes Houses Fireplaces Baptised Buried +St. James's 272 836 } +St. Katherine's 540 2,198 } 122 306 +St. Nicholas } + Without and } 1,064 4,082 145 414 + St. Patrick's } +St. Bridget's 395 1,903 68 149 +St. Audone's 276 1,510 56 164 +St. Michael's 174 884 34 50 +St. John's 302 1,636 74 101 +St. Nicholas } + Within and } 153 902 26 52 +Christ Church Lib. } +St. Warburgh's 240 1,638 45 105 +St. Michan's 938 3,516 124 389 +St. Andrew's 864 3,638 131 300 +St. Kevin's 554 2,120 } 87 233 +Donnybrook 253 506 } + 6,025 25,369 912 2,263 + + +The table hath been made for the year 1682, wherein is to be noted - + +1. That the houses which A.D. 1671 were but 3,850 are, A.D. 1682, +6,025; but whether this difference is caused by the real increase of +housing, or by fraud and defect in the former accounts, is left to +consideration. For the burials of people have increased but from +1,696 to 2,263, according to which proportion the 3,850 houses A.D. +1671 should A.D. 1682 have been but 5,143, wherefore some fault may +be suspected as aforesaid, when farming the hearth-money was in +agitation. + +2. The hearths have increased according to the burials, and one- +third of the said increase more, viz., the burials A.D. 1671 were +1,696, the one-third whereof is 563, which put together makes 2,259, +which is near the number of burials A.D. 1682. But the hearths A.D. +1671 were 17,500, whereof the one-third is 5,833, making in all but +23,333; whereas the whole hearths A.D. 1682 were 25,369, viz., one- +third and better of the said 5,833 more. + +3. The housing were A.D. 1671 but 3,850, which if they had +increased A.D. 1682 but according to the burials, they had been but +5,143, or, according to the hearths, had been but 5,488, whereas +they appear 6,025, increasing double to the hearths. So as it is +likely there hath been some error in the said account of the +housing, unless the new housing be very small, and have but one +chimney apiece, and that one-fourth part of them are untenanted. On +the other hand, it is more likely that when 1,696 died per annum +there were near 6,000; for 6,000 houses at 8 inhabitants per house, +would make the number of the people to be 48,000, and the number of +1,696 that died according to the rule of one out of 30, would have +made the number of inhabitants about 50,000: for which reason I +continue to believe there was some error in the account of 3,850 +houses as aforesaid, and the rather because there is no ground from +experience to think that in eleven years the houses in Dublin have +increased from 3,850 to 6,025. + +Moreover, I rather think that the number of 6,025 is yet short, +because that number at 8 heads per house makes the inhabitants to be +but 48,200; whereas the 2,263 who died in the year 1682, according +to the aforementioned rule of one dying out of 30 makes the number +of people to be 67,890, the medium betwixt which number and 48,200 +is 58,045, which is the best estimate I can make of that matter, +which I hope authority will ere long rectify, by direct and exact +inquiries. + +4. As to the births, we say that A.D. 1640, 1641, and 1642, at +London, just before the troubles in religion began, the births were +five-sixths of the burials, by reason I suppose of the greaterness +of families in London above the country, and the fewer breeders, and +not for want of registering. Wherefore, deducting one-sixth of +2,263, which is 377, there remains 1,886 for the probable number of +births in Dublin for the year 1682; whereas but 912 are represented +to have been christened in that year, though 1,023 were christened +A.D. 1671, when there died but 1,696, which decreasing of the +christening, and increasing of the burials, shows the increase of +non-registering in the legal books, which must be the increase of +Roman Catholics at Dublin. + +The scope of this whole paper therefore is, that the people of +Dublin are rather 58,000 than 32,000, and that the dissenters, who +do not register their baptisms, have increased from 391 to 974: but +of dissenters, none have increased but the Roman Catholics, whose +numbers have increased from about two to five in the said years. +The exacter knowledge whereof may also be better had from direct +inquiries. + + + +OBSERVATIONS UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS OF MORTALITY, 1681: AND THE +STATE OF THAT CITY. + + + +The observations upon the London bills of mortality have been a new +light to the world, and the like observation upon those of Dublin +may serve as snuffers to make the same candle burn clearer. + +The London observations flowed from bills regularly kept for near +one hundred years, but these are squeezed out of six straggling +London bills, out of fifteen Dublin bills, and from a note of the +families and hearths in each parish of Dublin, which are all +digested into the one table or sheet annexed, consisting of three +parts, marked A, B, C; being indeed the A, B, C of public economy, +and even of that policy which tends to peace and plenty. + + +Observations upon the Table A. + + +1. The total of the burials in London (for the said six straggling +years mentioned in the Table A) is 120,170, whereof the medium or +sixth part is 20,028, and exceeds the burials of Paris, as may +appear by the late bills of that city. + +2. The births, for the same time, are 73,683, the medium or sixth +part whereof is 12,280, which is about five-eighth parts of the +burials, and shows that London would in time decrease quite away, +were it not supplied out of the country, where are about five births +for four burials, the proportion of breeders in the country being +greater than in the city. + +3. The burials in Dublin for the said six years were 9,865, the +sixth part or medium whereof is 1,644, which is about the twelfth +part of the London burials, and about a fifth part over. So as the +people of London do hereby seem to be above twelve times as many as +those of Dublin. + +4. The births in the same time at Dublin are 6,157, the sixth part +or medium whereof is 1,026, which is also about five-eighth parts of +the 1,644 burials, which shows that the proportion between burials +and births are alike at London and Dublin, and that the accounts are +kept alike, and consequently are likely to be true, there being no +confederacy for that purpose; which, if they be true, we then say - + +5. That the births are the best way (till the accounts of the +people shall be purposely taken) whereby to judge of the increase +and decrease of people, that of burials being subject to more +contingencies and variety of causes. + +6. If births be as yet the measure of the people, and that the +births (as has been shown) are as five to eight, then eight-fifths +of the births is the number of the burials, where the year was not +considerable for extraordinary sickness or salubrity, and is the +rule whereby to measure the same. As for example, the medium of +births in Dublin was 1,026, the eight-fifths whereof is 1,641, but +the real burials were 1,644; so as in the said years they differed +little from the 1,641, which was the standard of health, and +consequently the years 1680, 1674, and 1668 were sickly years, more +or less, as they exceeded the said number, 1,641; and the rest were +healthful years, more or less, as they fell short of the same +number. But the city was more or less populous, as the births +differed from the number 1,026, viz., populous in the years 1680, +1679, 1678, and 1668, for other causes of this difference in births +are very occult and uncertain. + +7. What hath been said of Dublin, serves also for London. + +8. It hath already been observed by the London bills that there are +more males than females. It is to be further noted, that in these +six London bills, also, there is not one instance either in the +births or burials to the contrary. + +9. It hath been formerly observed that in the years wherein most +die fewest are born, and vice versa. The same may be further +observed in males and females, viz., when fewest males are born then +most die: for here the males died as twelve to eleven, which is +above the mean proportion of fourteen to thirteen, but were born but +as nineteen to eighteen, which is below the same. + + +Observations upon the Table B. + + +1. From the Table B it appears that the medium of the fifteen +years' burials (being 24,199) is 1,613, whereas the medium of the +other six years in the Table A was 1,644, and that the medium of the +fifteen years' births (being in all 14,765) is 984, whereas the +medium of the said other six years was 1,026. That is to say, there +were both fewer births and burials in these fifteen years than in +the other six years, which is a probable sign that at a medium there +were fewer people also. + +2. The medium of births for the fifteen years being 984, whereof +eight-fifths (being 1,576) is the standard of health for the said +fifteen years; and the triple of the said 1,576 being 4,728, is the +standard for each of the ternaries of the fifteen years within the +said table. + +3. That 2,952, the triple of 984 births, is for each ternary the +standard of people's increase and decrease from the year 1666 to +1680 inclusive, viz., the people increased in the second ternary, +and decreased from the same in the third and fourth ternaries, but +re-increased in the fifth ternary beyond any other. + +4. That the last ternary was withal very healthful, the burials +being but 4,624, viz., below 4,728, the standard. + +5. That according to this proportion of increase, the housing of +Dublin have probably increased also. + +Observations upon the Table C. + +1. First, from the Table C it appears, 1. That the housing of +Dublin is such, as that there are not five hearths in each house one +with another, but nearer five than four. + +2. That in St. Warburgh's parish are near six hearths to a house. +In St. John's five. In St. Michael's above five. In St. Nicholas +Within above six. In Christ Church above seven. In St. James's and +St. Katherine's, and in St. Michan's, not four. In St. Kevin's +about four. + +3. That in St. James's, St. Michan's, St. Bride's, St. Warburgh's, +St. Andrew's, St. Michael's, and St. Patrick's, all the christenings +were but 550, and the burials 1,055, viz., near double; and that in +the rest of the parishes the christenings were five, and the burials +seven, viz., as 457 to 634. Now whether the cause of this +difference was negligence in accounts, or the greaterness of the +families, &c., is worth inquiring. + +4. It is hard to say in what order (as to greatness) these parishes +ought to stand, some having most families, some most hearths, some +most births, and others most burials. Some parishes exceeding the +rest in two, others in three of the said four particulars, but none +in all four. Wherefore this table ranketh them according to the +plurality of the said four particulars wherein each excelleth the +other. + +5. The London observations reckon eight heads in each family, +according to which estimation, there are 32,000 souls in the 4,000 +families of Dublin, which is but half of what most men imagine, of +which but about one sixth part are able to bear arms, besides the +royal regiment. + +6. Without the knowledge of the true number of people, as a +principle, the whole scope and use of the keeping bills of births +and burials is impaired; wherefore by laborious conjectures and +calculations to deduce the number of people from the births and +burials, may be ingenious, but very preposterous. + +7. If the number of families in Dublin be about 4,000, then ten men +in one week (at the charge of about 5 pounds surveying eight +families in an hour) may directly, and without algebra, make an +account of the whole people, expressing their several ages, sex, +marriages, title, trade, religion, &c., and those who survey the +hearths, or the constables or the parish clerks (may, if required) +do the same ex officio, and without other charge, by the command of +the chief governor, the diocesan, or the mayor. + +8. The bills of London have since their beginning admitted several +alterations and improvements, and 8 or 10 pounds per annum +surcharge, would make the bills of Dublin to exceed all others, and +become an excellent instrument of Government. To which purpose the +forms for weekly, quarterly, and yearly bills are humbly +recommended, viz. + +TABLE A-- YEARLY BILLS OF MORTALITY FOR +A.D. LONDON and DUBLIN. + Burials Births Burials Births +1680 21,053 12,747 1,826 1,096 +1679 21,730 12,288 1,397 1,061 +1678 20,678 12,601 1,401 1,045 +1674 21,201 11,851 2,106 942 +1672 18,230 12,563 1,436 987 +1668 17,278 11,633 1,699 1,026 + 120,170 73,683 9,865 6,157 +The medium +or 6th part +whereof is +part whereof +is 20,028 12,280 1,644 1,026 + +TABLE A--CONTINUED + +A.D. LONDON. + BURIALS. BIRTHS. + Male Female Male Female +1680 11,039 10,044 6,543 6,041 +1679 11,154 10,576 6,247 6,041 +1678 10,681 9,977 6,568 6,033 +1674 11,000 10,196 6,113 5,738 +1672 9,560 8,070 6,443 6,120 +1668 9,111 8,167 6,073 5,566 + 62,545 57,030 37,992 35,697 +The medium +or 6th part +whereof is +part whereof +is 10,424 9,505 6,332 5,949 + +TABLE B.--DUBLIN. + +A.D. Burials Births In Ternaries of Years +1666 1,480 952 } +1667 1,642 1,001 } 4,821 2,979 +1668 1,699 1,026 } +1669 1,666 1,000 } +1670 1,713 1,067 } 5,353 3,070 +1671 1,974 1,003 } +1672 1,436 967 } +1673 1,531 933 } 5,073 2,842 +1674 2,106 942 } +1675 1,578 823 } +1676 1,391 952 } 4,328 2,672 +1677 1,359 897 } +1678 1,401 1,045 } +1679 1,397 1,061 } 4,624 3,202 +1680 1,826 1,096 } + 24,199 14,765 24,199 14,765 +The medium } +or 15th }1,613 984 1,613 984 +part whereof } +is } + +TABLE C. + +THE PARISHES OF DUBLIN A.D. A.D., 1670-71-72 + 1671. at a medium + Families Hearths Births Burials +St. Katherine's 661 2,399 161 290 + and St. James's +St. Nicholas Without 490 2,348 207 262 +St. Michan's 656 2,301 127 221 +St. Andrew's with Donnybrook 483 2,123 108 178 +St. Bridget's 416 1,989 70 100 +St. John's 244 1,337 70 138 +St. Warburgh's 267 1,650 54 103 +St. Audaen's 216 1,081 53 121 +St. Michael's 140 793 44 59 +St. Kevin's 106 433 64 133 +St. Nicholas Within 93 614 28 34 +St. Patrick's Liberties 52 255 21 44 +Christ Church and Trinity + College, per estimate 26 197 - 1 + 3,850 17,500 1,013 1,696 + +Houses built between 1671 and +1681, per estimate 150 550 + 4,000 18,150 + +A WEEKLY BILL OF MORTALITY FOR THE CITY OF DUBLIN, +Ending the XXX day of XXX 1681. + +PARISHES' NAMES. +St. Katharine's and St. James's +St. Nicholas Without +St. Michan's +St. Andrew's with Donnybrook +St. Bridget's +St. John's +St. Warburgh's +St. Audaen's +St. Michael's +St. Kevin's +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick's Liberties +Christ Church and Trinity College +Totals + +[The columns for the table are: Births, Males, Females, Burials, +Under 16 years old, Plague, Small Pox, Measles, Spotted Fever. In +the book there are no figures in the table at all.--DP.] + + +A QUARTERLY BILL OF MORTALITY, +Beginning XXX and ending XXX for the City of DUBLIN +PARISHES' NAMES. +St. Katharine's and St. James's +St. Nicholas Without +St. Michan's +St. Andrew's with Donnybrook +St. Bridget's +St. John's +St. Warburgh's +St. Audaen's +St. Michael's +St. Kevin's +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick's Liberties +Christ Church and Trinity College +Totals + +[The columns for the table are: Births 1.; Marriages 2.; Buried +under 16 years olds; Buried above 60 years old; Measles, Spotted +Fever, Small Pox, Plague; Consumption, Dropsy, Gout, Stone; Fever, +Pleurisy, Quinsy, Sudden Death; Aged above 70 years old; Infants +under 2 years old; All other Casualties. In the book there are no +figures in the table at all.--DP.] + + +AN ACCOUNT OF THE PEOPLE OF DUBLIN FOR ONE YEAR, +Ending the 24th of March, 1681. +PARISHES' NAMES. +St. Katharine's and St. James's +St. Nicholas Without +St. Michan's +St. Andrew's with Donnybrook +St. Bridget's +St. John's +St. Warburgh's +St. Audaen's +St. Michael's +St. Kevin's +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick's Liberties +Christ Church and Trinity College +Totals + +[The columns for the table are: Number of person; Males; Females; +Remarried Persons; Persons under 16 years old; Persons above 60 +years old; Protestants of above 16 years old; Papists of above 16 +years old; Of all other religions above 16 years old; Births; +Burials; Marriages. In the book there are no figures in the table +at all.--DP.] + + +CASUALTIES AND DISEASES. +Aged above 70 years Epilepsy and planet +Abortive and still-born Fever and ague +Childbed women Pleurisy +Convulsion Quinsy +Teeth Executed, murdered, +Worms drowned +Gout and sciatica Plague and spotted fever +Stone Griping of the guts +Palsy Scouring, vomiting +Consumption and French bleeding + pox Small pox +Dropsy and tympany Measles +Rickets and livergrown Neither of all the other +Headache and megrim sorts + + + +A POSTSCRIPT TO THE STATIONER. + + + +Whereas you complain that these observations make no sufficient +bulk, I could answer you that I wish the bulk of all books were +less; but do nevertheless comply with you in adding what follows, +viz.: + +1. That the parishes of Dublin are very unequal; some having in +them above 600 families, and others under thirty. + +2. That thirteen parishes are too few for 4,000 families; the +middling parishes of London containing 120 families; according to +which rate there should be about thirty-three parishes in Dublin. + +3. It is said that there are 84,000 houses or families in London, +which is twenty-one times more than are in Dublin, and yet the +births and burials of London are but twelve times those of Dublin, +which shows that the inhabitants of Dublin are more crowded and +straitened in their housing than those of London; and consequently +that to increase the buildings of Dublin will make that city more +conformable to London. + +4. I shall also add some reasons for altering the present forms of +the Dublin bills of mortality, according to what hath been here +recommended--viz.: + +1. We give the distinctions of males and females in the births +only; for that the burials must, at one time or another, be in the +same proportion with the births. + +2. We do in the weekly and quarterly bills propose that notice be +taken in the burials of what numbers die above sixty and seventy, +and what under sixteen, six, and two years old, foreseeing good uses +to be made of that distinction. + +3. We do in the yearly bill reduce the casualties to about twenty- +four, being such as may be discerned by common sense, and without +art, conceiving that more will but perplex and imbroil the account. +And in the quarterly bills we reduce the diseases to three heads-- +viz., contagious, acute, and chronical, applying this distinction to +parishes, in order to know how the different situation, soil, and +way of living in each parish doth dispose men to each of the said +three species; and in the weekly bills we take notice not only of +the plague, but of the other contagious diseases in each parish, +that strangers and fearful persons may thereby know how to dispose +of themselves. + +4. We mention the number of the people, as the fundamental term in +all our proportions; and without which all the rest will be almost +fruitless. + +5. We mention the number of marriages made in every quarter, and in +every year, as also the proportion which married persons bear to the +whole, expecting in such observations to read the improvement of the +nation. + +6. As for religions, we reduce them to three--viz.: (1) those who +have the Pope of Rome for their head; (2) who are governed by the +laws of their country; (3) those who rely respectively upon their +own private judgments. Now, whether these distinctions should be +taken notice of or not, we do but faintly recommend, seeing many +reasons pro and con for the same; and, therefore, although we have +mentioned it as a matter fit to be considered, yet we humbly leave +it to authority. + + + + +TWO ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC, +Concerning the People, Housing, Hospitals, &c., of London and Paris. + + + + +TO THE KING'S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY. + + + +I do presume, in a very small paper, to show your Majesty that your +City of London seems more considerable than the two best cities of +the French monarchy, and for aught I can find, greater than any +other of the universe, which because I can say without flattery, and +by such demonstration as your Majesty can examine, I humbly pray +your Majesty to accept from + +Your Majesty's +Most humble, loyal, and obedient subject, +WILLIAM PETTY. + + + +AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC + + + +Tending to prove that London hath more people and housing than the +cities of Paris and Rouen put together, and is also more +considerable in several other respects. + +1. The medium of the burials at London in the three last years-- +viz., 1683, 1684, and 1685, wherein there was no extraordinary +sickness, and wherein the christenings do correspond in their +ordinary proportions with the burials and christenings of each year +one with another, was 22,337, and the like medium of burials for the +three last Paris bills we could procure--viz., for the years 1682, +1683, and 1684 (whereof the last as appears by the christenings to +have been very sickly), is 19,887. + +2. The city of Bristol in England appears to be by good estimate of +its trade and customs as great as Rouen in France, and the city of +Dublin in Ireland appears to have more chimneys than Bristol, and +consequently more people, and the burials in Dublin were, A.D. 1682 +(being a sickly year) but 2,263. + +3. Now the burials of Paris (being 19,887) being added to the +burials of Dublin (supposed more than at Rouen) being 2,263, makes +but 22,150, whereas the burials of London were 187 more, or 22,337, +or as about 6 to 7. + +4. If those who die unnecessarily, and by miscarriage in L'Hotel +Dieu in Paris (being above 3,000), as hath been elsewhere shown, or +any part thereof, should be subtracted out of the Paris burials +aforementioned, then our assertion will be stronger, and more +proportionable to what follows concerning the housing of those +cities, viz.: + +5. There were burnt at London, A.D. 1666, above 13,000 houses, +which being but a fifth part of the whole, the whole number of +houses in the said year were above 65,000; and whereas the ordinary +burials of London have increased between the years 1666 and 1686, +above one-third the total of the houses at London, A.D. 1686, must +be about 87,000, which A.D. 1682, appeared by account to have been +84,000. + +6. Monsieur Moreri, the great French author of the late +geographical dictionaries, who makes Paris the greatest city in the +world, doth reckon but 50,000 houses in the same, and other authors +and knowing men much less; nor are there full 7,000 houses in the +city of Dublin, so as if the 50,000 houses of Paris, and the 7,000 +houses in the city of Dublin were added together, the total is but +57,000 houses, whereas those of London are 87,000 as aforesaid, or +as 6 to 9. + +7. As for the shipping and foreign commerce of London, the common +sense of all men doth judge it to be far greater than that of Paris +and Rouen put together. + +8. As to the wealth and gain accruing to the inhabitants of London +and Paris by law-suits (or La chicane) I only say that the courts of +London extend to all England and Wales, and affect seven millions of +people, whereas those of Paris do not extend near so far. Moreover, +there is no palpable conspicuous argument at Paris for the number +and wealth of lawyers like the buildings and chambers in the two +Temples, Lincoln's Inn, Gray's Inn, Doctors' Commons, and the seven +other inns in which are chimneys, which are to be seen at London, +besides many lodgings, halls, and offices, relating to the same. + +9. As to the plentiful and easy living of the people we say, + +(a.) That the people of Paris to those of London, being as about 6 +to 7, and the housing of the same as about 6 to 9, we infer that the +people do not live at London so close and crowded as at Paris, but +can afford themselves more room and liberty. + +(b.) That at London the hospitals are better and more desirable than +those of Paris, for that in the best at Paris there die two out of +fifteen, whereas at London there die out of the worst scarce 2 out +of 16, and yet but a fiftieth part of the whole die out of the +hospitals at London, and two-fifths, or twenty times that proportion +die out of the Paris hospitals which are of the same kind; that is +to say, the number of those at London, who choose to lie sick in +hospitals rather than in their own houses, are to the like people of +Paris as one to twenty; which shows the greater poverty or want of +means in the people of Paris than those of London. + +(c.) We infer from the premises, viz., the dying scarce two of +sixteen out of the London hospitals, and about two of fifteen in the +best of Paris, to say nothing of L'Hotel Dieu, that either the +physicians and chirurgeons of London are better than those of Paris, +or that the air of London is more wholesome. + +10. As for the other great cities of the world, if Paris were the +greatest we need say no more in behalf of London. As for Pekin in +China, we have no account fit to reason upon; nor is there anything +in the description of the two late voyages of the Chinese emperor +from that city into East and West Tartary, in the years 1682 and +1683, which can make us recant what we have said concerning London. +As for Delhi and Agra, belonging to the Mogul, we find nothing +against our position, but much to show the vast numbers which attend +that emperor in his business and pleasures. + +11. We shall conclude with Constantinople and Grand Cairo; as for +Constantinople it hath been said by one who endeavoured to show the +greatness of that city, and the greatness of the plague which raged +in it, that there died 1,500 per diem, without other circumstances; +to which we answer, that in the year 1665 there died in London 1,200 +per diem, and it hath been well proved that the Plague of London +never carried away above one-fifth of the people, whereas it is +commonly believed that in Constantinople, and other eastern cities, +and even in Italy and Spain, that the plague takes away two-fifths, +one half, or more; wherefore where 1,200 is but one-fifth of the +people it is probable that the number was greater, than where 1,500 +was two-fifths or one half, &c. + +12. As for Grand Cairo it is reported, that 73,000 died in ten +weeks, or 1,000 per diem, where note, that at Grand Cairo the plague +comes and goes away suddenly, and that the plague takes away two or +three-fifths parts of the people as aforesaid; so as 73,000 was +probably the number of those that died of the plague in one whole +year at Grand Cairo, whereas at London, A.D. 1665, 97,000 were +brought to account to have died in that year. Wherefore it is +certain, that that city wherein 97,000 was but one-fifth of the +people, the number was greater than where 73,000 was two-fifths or +the half. + +We therefore conclude, that London hath more people, housing, +shipping, and wealth, than Paris and Rouen put together; and for +aught yet appears, is more considerable than any other city in the +universe, which was propounded to be proved. + + + +AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC + + + +Tending to prove that in the hospital called L'Hotel Dieu at Paris, +there die above 3,000 per annum by reason of ill accommodation. + +1. It appears that A.D. 1678 there entered into the Hospital of La +Charite 2,647 souls, of which there died there within the said year +338, which is above an eighth part of the said 2,647; and that in +the same year there entered into L'Hotel Dieu 21,491, and that there +died out of that number 5,630, which is above one quarter, so as +about half the said 5,630, being 2,815, seem to have died for want +of as good usage and accommodation as might have been had at La +Charite. + +2. Moreover, in the year 1679 there entered into La Charite 3,118, +of which there died 452, which is above a seventh part, and in the +same year there entered into L'Hotel Dieu 28,635, of which there +died 8,397; and in both the said years 1678 and 1679 (being very +different in their degrees of mortality) there entered into L'Hotel +Dieu 28,635 and 2l,491--in all 50,126, the medium whereof is 25,063; +and there died out of the same in the said two years, 5,630 and +8,397--in all 14,027, the medium whereof is 7,013. + +3. There entered in the said years into La Charite 2,647 and 3,118, +in all 5,765, the medium whereof is 2,882, whereof there died 338 +and 452, in all 790, the medium whereof is 395. + +4. Now, if there died out of L'Hotel Dieu 7,013 per annum, and that +the proportion of those that died out of L'Hotel Dieu is double to +those that died out of La Charite (as by the above numbers it +appears to be near thereabouts), then it follows that half the said +numbers of 7,013, being 3,506, did not die by natural necessity, but +by the evil administration of that hospital. + +5. This conclusion seemed at the first sight very strange, and +rather to be some mistake or chance than a solid and real truth; but +considering the same matter as it appeared at London, we were more +reconciled to the belief of it, viz.:- + +(a.) In the Hospital of St. Bartholomew in London, there was sent +out and cured in the year 1685, 1,764 persons, and there died out of +the said hospital 252. Moreover, there were sent out and cured out +of St. Thomas's Hospital 1,523, and buried, 209--that is to say, +there were cured in both hospitals 3,287, and buried out of both +hospitals 461, and consequently cured and buried 3,748, of which +number the 461 buried is less than an eighth part; whereas at La +Charite the part that died was more than an eighth part; which shows +that out of the most poor and wretched hospitals of London there +died fewer in proportion than out of the best in Paris. + +(b.) Furthermore, it hath been above shown that there died out of La +Charite at a medium 395 per annum, and 141 out of Les Incurables, +making in all 536; and that out of St. Bartholomew's and St. +Thomas's Hospitals, London, there died at a medium but 461, of which +Les Incurables are part; which shows that although there be more +people in London than in Paris, yet there went at London not so many +people to hospitals as there did at Paris, although the poorest +hospitals at London were better than the best at Paris; which shows +that the poorest people at London have better accommodation in their +own houses than the best hospital of Paris affordeth. + +6. Having proved that there die about 3,506 persons at Paris +unnecessarily, to the damage of France, we come next to compute the +value of the said damage, and of the remedy thereof, as follows, +viz., the value of the said 3,506 at 60 livres sterling per head, +being about the value of Argier slaves (which is less than the +intrinsic value of people at Paris), the whole loss of the subjects +of France in that hospital seems to be 60 times 3,506 livres +sterling per annum, viz., 210,360 livres sterling, equivalent to +about 2,524,320 French livres. + +7. It hath appeared that there came into L'Hotel Dieu at a medium +25,063 per annum, or 2,089 per mensem, and that the whole stock of +what remained in the precedent months is at a medium about 2,108 (as +may appear by the third line of the Table No. 5, which shall be +shortly published), viz., the medium of months is 2,410 for the +sickly year 1679, whereunto 1,806 being added as the medium of +months for the year 1678, makes 4,216, the medium whereof is the +2,108 above mentioned; which number being added to the 2,089 which +entered each month, makes 4,197 for the number of sick which are +supposed to be always in L'Hotel Dieu one time with another. + +8. Now, if 60 French livres per annum for each of the said 4,197 +sick persons were added to the present ordinary expense of that +hospital (amounting to an addition of 251,820 livres), it seems that +so many lives might be saved as are worth above ten times that sum, +and this by doing a manifest deed of charity to mankind. + +Memorandum.--That A.D. 1685, the burials of London were 23,222, and +those of Amsterdam 6,245; from whence, and the difference of air, it +is probable that the people of London are quadruple to those of +Amsterdam. + + + + +OBSERVATIONS UPON THE CITIES OF LONDON AND ROME + + + + +1. That before the year 1630 the christenings at London exceeded +the burials of the same, but about the year 1655 they were scarce +half; and now about two-thirds. + +2. Before the restoration of monarchy in England, A.D. 1660, the +people of Paris were more than those of London and Dublin put +together, whereas now, the people of London are more than those of +Paris and Rome, or of Paris and Rouen. + +3. A.D. 1665 one fifth part of the then people of London, or +97,000, died of the plague, and in the next year, 1666, 13,000 +houses, or one fifth part of all the housing of London, were burnt +also. + +4. At the birth of Christ old Rome was the greatest city of the +world, and London the greatest at the coronation of King James II., +and near six times as great as the present Rome, wherein are 119,000 +souls besides Jews. + +5. In the years of King Charles II.'s death, and King James II.'s +coronation (which were neither of them remarkable for extraordinary +sickliness or healthfulness) the burials did wonderfully agree, +viz., A.D. 1684, they were 23,202, and A.D. 1685, they were 23,222, +the medium whereof is 23,212. And the christenings did very +wonderfully agree also, having been A.D. 1684, 14,702, and A.D. +1685, 14,732, the medium whereof is 14,716, which consistence was +never seen before, the said number of 23,212 burials making the +people of London to be 696,360, at the rate of one dying per annum +out of 30. + +6. Since the great Fire of London, A.D. 1666, about 7 parts of 15 +of the present vast city hath been new built, and is with its people +increased near one half, and become equal to Paris and Rome put +together, the one being the seat of the great French Monarchy, and +the other of the Papacy. + + + + +FIVE ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC + + + + +I. Objections from the city of Ray in Persia, and from Monsier +Auzout, against two former essays, answered, and that London hath as +many people as Paris, Rome, and Rouen put together. + +II. A comparison between London and Paris in 14 particulars. + +III. Proofs that at London, within its 134 parishes named in the +bills of mortality, there live about 696,000 people. + +IV. An estimate of the people in London, Paris, Amsterdam, Venice, +Rome, Dublin, Bristol, and Rouen, with several observations upon the +same. + +V. Concerning Holland and the rest of the Seven United Provinces. + + + +TO THE KING'S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY + +Sir, + +Your Majesty having graciously accepted my two late essays, about +the cities and hospitals of London and Paris, as also my +observations on Rome and Rouen; I do (after six months' waiting for +what may be said against my several doctrines by the able men of +Europe) humbly present your Majesty with a few other papers upon the +same subject, to strengthen, explain, and enlarge the former; hoping +by such real arguments, better to praise and magnify your Majesty, +than by any other the most specious words and eulogies that can be +imagined by + +Your Majesty's +Most humble, loyal +And obedient subject, +WILLIAM PETTY. + + + +THE FIRST ESSAY. + + + +It could not be expected that an assertion of London's being bigger +than Paris and Rouen, or than Paris and Rome put together, and +bigger than any city of the world, should escape uncontradicted; and +'tis also expected that I (if continuing in the same persuasion), +should make some reply to those contradictions. In order whereunto, + +I begin with the ingenious author of the "Republique des Lettres," +who saith that Rey in Persia is far bigger than London, for that in +the sixth century of Christianity (I suppose, A.D. 550 the middle of +that century), it had 15,000, or rather 44,000 mosques or Mahometan +temples; to which I reply, that I hope this objector is but in jest, +for that Mahomet was not born till about the year 570, and had no +mosques till about 50 years after. + +In the next place I reply to the excellent Monsieur Auzout's +"Letters from Rome," who is content that London, Westminster, and +Southwark may have as many people as Paris and its suburbs; and but +faintly denieth, that all the housing within the bills may have +almost as many people as Paris and Rouen, but saith that several +parishes inserted into these bills are distant from, and not +contiguous with London, and that Grant so understood it. + +To which (as his main if not his only objection) we answer: --(l) +That the London bills appear in Grant's book to have been always, +since the year 1636; as they now are; (2) That about fifty years +since, three or four parishes, formerly somewhat distant, were +joined by interposed buildings to the bulk of the city, and +therefore then inserted into the bills; (3) That since fifty years +the whole buildings being more than double have perfected that +union, so as there is no house within the said bills from which one +may not call to some other house; (4) All this is confirmed by +authority of the king and city, and the custom of fifty years; (5) +That there are but three parishes under any colour of this exception +which are scarce one-fifty-second part of the whole. + +Upon the whole matter, upon sight of Monsieur Auzout's large letter, +dated the 19th of November, from Rome, I made remarks upon every +paragraph thereof, but suppressing it (because it looked like a war +against a worthy person with whom I intended none, whereas, in +truth, it was but a reconciling explication of some doubts) I have +chosen the shorter and softer way of answering Monsieur Auzout as +followeth, viz.:- + +Concerning the number of people in London, as also in Paris, Rouen, +and Rome, viz.:- + +Monsieur Auzout allegeth an authentic account that there are 23,223 +houses in Paris, wherein do live about eighty thousand families, and +therefore supposing three and a half families to live in every of +the said houses, one with another, the number of families will be +81,280; and Monsier Auzout also allowing six heads to each family, +the utmost number of people in Paris, according to that opinion, +will be 487,680. + +The medium of the Paris burials was not denied by Monsier Auzout to +be 19,887, nor that there died 3,506 unnecessarily out of the +L'Hotel Dieu; wherefore deducting the said last number out of the +former, the net standard for burials at Paris will be 16,381, so, as +the number of people there, allowing but one to die out of thirty +(which is more advantageous to Paris than Monsieur Auzout's opinion +of one to die out of twenty-five) the number of people at Paris will +be 491,430 more than by Monsier Auzout's own last-mentioned account +491,430. + +And the medium of the said two Paris accounts is 488,055. + +The medium of the London burials is really 23,212, which, multiplied +by thirty (as hath been done for Paris), the number of the people +there will be 696,360. + +The number of houses at London appears by the register to be +105,315, whereunto adding one-tenth part of the same, or 10,315, as +the least number of double families that can be supposed in London, +the total of families will be 115,840, and allowing six heads for +each family, as was done for Paris, the total of the people at +London will be 695,076. + +The medium of the two last London accounts is 695,718. + +So, as the people of Paris, according to the above account, is +488,055. +Of Rouen, according to Monsieur Auzout's utmost demands 80,000. +Of Rome, according to his own report thereof in a former letter +125,000. +Total 693,055. + +So as there are more people at London than at Paris, Rouen, and Rome +by 2,663. + +Memorandum.--That the parishes of Islington, Newington, and Hackney, +for which only there is any colour of non-contiguity, is not one- +fifty-second part of what is contained in the bills of mortality, +and consequently London, without the said three parishes, hath more +people than Paris and Rouen put together, by 114,284. + +Which number of 114,284 is probably more people than any other city +of France contains. + + + +THE SECOND ESSAY. + + + +As for other comparisons of London with Paris, we farther repeat and +enlarge what hath been formerly said upon those matters, as +followeth, viz.:- + +1. That forty per cent. die out of the hospitals at Paris where so +many die unnecessarily, and scarce one-twentieth of that proportion +out of the hospitals of London, which have been shown to be better +than the best of Paris. + +2. That at Paris 81,280 kitchens are within less than 24,000 +street-doors, which makes less cleanly and convenient way of living +than at London. + +3. Where the number of christenings are near unto, or exceed the +burials, the people are poorer, having few servants and little +equipage. + +4. The river Thames is more pleasant and navigable than the Seine, +and its waters better and more wholesome; and the bridge of London +is the most considerable of all Europe. + +5. The shipping and foreign trade of London is incomparably greater +than that at Paris and Rouen. + +6. The lawyers' chambers at London have 2,772 chimnies in them, and +are worth 140,000 pounds sterling, or 3,000,000 of French livres, +besides the dwellings of their families elsewhere. + +7. The air is more wholesome, for that at London scarce two of +sixteen die out of the worst hospitals, but at Paris above two of +fifteen out of the best. Moreover the burials of Paris are one- +fifth part above and below the medium, but at London not above one- +twelfth, so as the intemperies of the air at Paris is far greater +than at London. + +8. The fuel cheaper, and lies in less room, the coals being a +wholesome sulphurous bitumen. + +9. All the most necessary sorts of victuals, and of fish, are +cheaper, and drinks of all sorts in greater variety and plenty. + +10. The churches of London we leave to be judged by thinking that +nothing at Paris is so great as St. Paul's was, and is like to be, +nor so beautiful as Henry the Seventh's chapel. + +11. On the other hand, it is probable, that there is more money in +Paris than London, if the public revenue (grossly speaking, +quadruple to that of England) be lodged there. + +12. Paris hath not been for these last fifty years so much infested +with the plague as London; now that at London the plague (which +between the years 1591 and 1666 made five returns, viz., every +fifteen years, at a medium, and at each time carried away one-fifth +of the people) hath not been known for the 21 years last past, and +there is a visible way by God's ordinary blessing to lessen the same +by two-thirds when it next appeareth. + +13. As to the ground upon which Paris stands in respect of London, +we say, that if there be five stories or floors of housing at Paris, +for four at London, or in that proportion, then the 82,000 families +of Paris stand upon the equivalent of 65,000 London housteds, and if +there be 115,000 families at London, and but 82,000 at Paris, then +the proportion of the London ground to that of Paris is as 115 to +sixty-five, or as twenty-three to thirteen. + +14. Moreover Paris is said to be an oval of three English miles +long and two and a half broad, the area whereof contains but five +and a half square miles; but London is seven miles long, and one and +a quarter broad at a medium, which makes an area of near nine square +miles, which proportion of five and half to nine differs little from +that of thirteen to twenty-three. + +15. Memorandum, that in Nero's time, as Monsieur Chivreau +reporteth, there died 300,000 people of the plague in old Rome; now +if there died three of ten then and there, being a hotter country, +as there dies two of ten at London, the number of people at that +time, was but a million, whereas at London they are now about +700,000. Moreover the ground within the walls of old Rome was a +circle but of three miles diameter, whose area is about seven square +miles, and the suburbs scarce as much more, in all about thirteen +square miles, whereas the built ground at London is about nine +square miles as aforesaid; which two sorts of proportions agree with +each other, and consequently old Rome seems but to have been half as +big again as the present London, which we offer to antiquaries. + + + +THE THIRD ESSAY. + + + +Proofs that the number of people in the 134 parishes of the London +bills of mortality, without reference to other cities, is about +696,000, viz. - + +I know but three ways of finding the same. + +1. By the houses, and families, and heads living in each. + +2. By the number of burials in healthful times, and by the +proportion of those that live, to those that die. + +3. By the number of those who die of the plague in pestilential +years, in proportion to those that escape. + + +The First Way. + + +To know the number of houses, I used three methods, viz. - + +1. The number of houses which were burnt A.D. 1666, which by +authentic report was 13,200; next what proportion the people who +died out of those houses, bore to the whole; which I find A.D. 1686, +to be but one seventh part, but A.D. 1666 to be almost one-fifth, +from whence I infer the whole housing of London A.D. 1666 to have +been 66,000, then finding the burials A.D. 1666 to be to those of +1686 as 3 to 4,I pitch upon 88,000 to be the number of housing A.D. +1686. + +2. Those who have been employed in making the general map of +London, set forth in the year 1682, told me that in that year they +had found above 84,000 houses to be in London, wherefore A.D. 1686, +or in four years more, there might be one-tenth or 8,400 houses more +(London doubling in forty years) so as the whole, A.D. 1686 might be +92,400. + +3. I found that A.D. 1685, there were 29,325 hearths in Dublin, and +6,400 houses, and in London 388 thousand hearths, whereby there must +have been at that rate 87,000 houses in London. Moreover I found +that in Bristol there were in the same year 16,752 hearth; and 5,307 +houses, and in London 388,000 hearths as aforesaid; at which rate +there must have been 123,000 houses in London, and at a medium +between Dublin and Bristol proportions 105,000 houses. + +Lastly, by certificate from the hearth office, I find the houses +within the bills of mortality to be 105,315. + +Having thus found the houses, I proceed next to the number of +families in them, and first I thought that if there were three or +four families or kitchens in every house of Paris, there might be +two families in one-tenth of the housing of London; unto which +supposition, the common opinion of several friends doth concur with +my own conjectures. + +As to the number of heads in each family, I stick to Grant's +observation in page --- of his fifth edition, that in tradesmen of +London's families there be eight heads one with another, in families +of higher ranks, above ten, and in the poorest near live, according +to which proportions, I had upon another occasion pitched the medium +of heads in all the families of England to be six and one-third, but +quitting the fraction in this case, I agree with Monsieur Auzout for +six. + +To conclude, the houses of London being 105,315 and the addition of +double families 10,531 more, in all 115,846; I multiplied the same +by six, which produced 695,076 for the number of the people. + + +The Second Way. + + +I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, and +both healthful, did wonderfully agree in their burials, viz., 1684 +they were 23,202, and A.D. 1685 23,222, the medium whereof is +23,212; moreover that the christenings 1684 were 14,702, and those +A.D. 1685 were 14,730, wherefore I multiplied the medium of burials +23,212 by 30, supposing that one dies out of 30 at London, which +made the number of people 696,360 souls. + +Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London or thereabouts, I say +- + +1. That Grant in the --- page of his fifth edition, affirmeth from +observation, that 3 died of 88 per annum which is near the same +proportion. + +2. I found that out of healthful places, and out of adult persons, +there dies much fewer, as but one out of 50 among our parliament +men, and that the kings of England having reigned 24 years one with +another, probably lived above 30 years each. + +3. Grant, page --- hath shown that but about one of 20 die per +annum out of young children under 10 years old, and Monsieur Auzout +thinks that but 1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion +of adult persons there, wherefore we still stick as a medium to the +number 30. + +4. In nine country parishes lying in several parts of England, I +find that but one of 37 hath died per annum, or 311 out of 11,507, +wherefore till I see another round number, grounded upon many +observations, nearer than 30, I hope to have done pretty well in +multiplying our burials by 30 to find the number of the people, the +product being 696,360, and what we find by the families they are +695,076, as aforesaid. + + +The Third Way. + + +It was proved by Grant, that one-fifth of the people died of the +plague, but A.D. 1665 there died of the plague near 98,000 persons, +the quintuple whereof is 490,000 as the number of people in the year +1665, whereunto adding above one-third, as the increase between 1665 +and 1686, the total is 653,000, agreeing well enough with the other +two computations above mentioned. + +Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue till a better be +put in its place. + +Memorandum. That two or three hundred new houses would make a +contiguity of two or three other great parishes, with the 134 +already mentioned in the bills of mortality: and that an oval wall +of about twenty miles in compass would enclose the same, and all the +shipping at Deptford and Blackwall, and would also fence in 20,000 +acres of land, and lay the foundation or designation of several vast +advantages to the owners, and inhabitants of that ground, as also to +the whole nation and government. + + + +THE FOURTH ESSAY. + + + +Concerning the proportions of People in the eight eminent Cities of +Christendom undernamed, viz.:- + +1. We have by the number of burials in healthful years, and by the +proportion of the living to those who die yearly, as also by the +number of houses and families within the 134 parishes called London, +and the estimate of the heads in each, pitched upon the number of +people in that city to be at a medium 695,718. + +2. We have, by allowing that at Paris above 80,000 families, viz., +81,280, do live in 23,223 houses, 32 palaces, and 38 colleges, or +that there are 81,280 kitchens within less than 24,000 street doors; +as also by allowing 30 heads for every one that died necessarily +there; we have pitched upon the number of people there at a medium +to be 488,055, nor have we restrained them to 300,000, by allowing +with Monsieur Auzout 6 heads for each of Moreri's 50,000 houses or +families. + +3. To Amsterdam we allow 187,350 souls, viz., 30 times the number +of their burials, which were 6,245 in the year 1685. + +4. To Venice we allow 134,000 souls, as found there in a special +account taken by authority, about ten years since, when the city +abounded with such as returned from Candia, then surrendered to the +Turks. + +5. To Rome we allow 119,000 Christians, and 6,000 Jews, in all +125,000 souls, according to an account sent thither of the same by +Monsieur Auzout. + +6. To Dublin we allow (as to Amsterdam) 30 times its burials, the +medium whereof for the last two years is 2,303, viz., 69,090 souls. + +7. As to Bristol, we say that if the 6,400 houses of Dublin give +69,090 people, that the 5,307 houses of Bristol must give above +56,000 people. Moreover, if the 29,325 hearths of Dublin give +69,090 people, the 16,752 hearths of Bristol must give about 40,000; +but the medium of 56,000 and 40,000 is 48,000. + +8. As for Rouen, we have no help, but Monsieur Auzout's fancy of +80,000 souls to be in that city, and the conjecture of knowing men +that Rouen is between the one-seventh and one-eighth part of Paris, +and also that it is by a third bigger than Bristol; by all which, we +estimate, till farther light, that Rouen hath at most but 66,000 +people in it. + +Now it may be wondered why we mentioned Rouen at all, having had so +little knowledge of it; whereunto we answer, that we did not think +it just to compare London with Paris, as to shipping and foreign +trade, without adding Rouen thereunto, Rouen being to Paris as that +part of London which is below the bridge, is to what is above it. + +All which we heartily submit to the correction of the curious and +candid, in the meantime observing according to the gross numbers +under-mentioned. + + +London 696,000 +Paris 488,000 +Amsterdam 187,000 +Venice 134,000 +Rome 125,000 +Dublin 69,000 +Bristol 48,000 +Rouen 66,000 + + +Observations on the said Eight Cities. + + +1. That the people of Paris being 488,000 + Rome 125,000 + Rouen 66,000 + do make in all but 679,000 + +or 17,000 less than the 696,000 of London alone. + +2. That the people of the two English cities and emporiums--viz., +of London, 696,000, and Bristol, 48,000--do make 744,000, or more +than + +In Paris 488,000 +Amsterdam 187,090 +Rouen 66,000 +Being in all 741,000 + +3. That the same two English cities seem equivalent + +To Paris, which hath 488,000 souls. + Rouen 66,000 + Lyons 100,000 + Toulouse 90,000 +In all 744,000 + +If there be any error in these conjectures concerning these cities +of France, we hope they will be mended by those whom we hear to be +now at work upon that matter. + +4. That the King of England's three cities, viz. + +London 696,000 { Paris 488,000 +Dublin 69,000 exceed { Amsterdam 187,000 +Bristol 48,000 { Venice 134,000 +In all 813,000 Being but 809,000 + +5. That of the four great emporiums, London, Amsterdam, Venice, and +Rouen, London alone is near double to the other three, viz., above 7 +to 4. + +Amsterdam 187,000 } +Venice 134,000 } 387,000 +Rouen 66,000 } 2 + 774,000 London 696,000 + +6. That London, for aught appears, is the greatest and most +considerable city of the world, but manifestly the greatest +emporium. + +When these assertions have passed the examen of the critics, we +shall make another essay, showing how to apply those truths to the +honour and profit of the King and Kingdom of England. + + + +THE FIFTH ESSAY. + + + +Concerning Holland and the rest of the United Provinces. + +Since the close of this paper, it hath been objected from Holland, +that what hath been said of the number of houses and people in +London is not like to be true; for that if it were, then London +would be the two-thirds of the whole Province of Holland. To which +is answered, that London is the two-thirds of all Holland, and more, +that province having not 1,044,000 inhabitants (whereof 696,000 is +the two-thirds), nor above 800,000, as we have credibly and often +heard. For suppose Amsterdam hath--as we have elsewhere noted-- +187,000, the seven next great cities at 30,000 each, one with +another, 210,000, the ten next at 15,000 each 150,000, the ten +smallest at 6,000 each 60,000--in all, the twenty-eight walled +cities and towns of Holland 607,000; in the dorps and villages +193,000, which is about one head for every four acres of land; +whereas in England there is eight acres for every head, without the +cities and market-towns. + +Now, suppose London, having 116,000 families, should have seven +heads in each--the medium between MM. Auzout's and Grant's +reckonings--the total of the people would be 812,000; or if we +reckon that there dies one out of thirty-four--the medium between +thirty and thirty-seven above mentioned--the total of the people +would be thirty-four times 23,212, viz., 789,208, the medium between +which number and the above 812,000 is 800,604, somewhat exceeding +800,000, the supposed number of Holland. + +Furthermore, I say that upon former searches into the peopling of +the world, I never found that in any country--not in China itself-- +there was more than one man to every English acre of land: many +territories passing for well-peopled where there is but one man for +ten such acres. I found by measuring Holland and West Frisia (alias +North Holland) upon the best maps, that it contained but as many +such acres as London doth of people, viz., about 696,000 acres. I +therefore venture to pronounce (till better informed) that the +people of London are as many as those of Holland, or at least above +two-thirds of the same, which is enough to disable the objection +above mentioned; nor is there any need to strain up London from +696,000 to 800,000, though competent reasons have been given to that +purpose, and though the author of the excellent map of London, set +forth A.D. 1682, reckoned the people thereof (as by the said map +appears) to be 1,200,000, even when he thought the houses of the +same to be but 85,000. + +The worthy person who makes this objection in the same letter also +saith - + +1. That the province of Holland hath as many people as the other +six united provinces together, and as the whole kingdom of England, +and double to the city of Paris and its suburbs; that is to say, +2,000,000 souls. 2. He says that in London and Amsterdam, and +other trading cities, there are ten heads to every family, and that +in Amsterdam there are not 22,000 families. 3. He excepteth +against the register alleged by Monsieur Auzout, which makes 23,223 +houses and above 80,000 families to be in Paris; as also against the +register alleged by Petty, making 105,315 houses to be in London, +with a tenth part of the same to be of families more than houses; +and probably will except against the register of 1,163 houses to be +in all England, that number giving, at six and one-third heads to +each family, about 7,000,000 people, upon all which we remark as +follows, viz.:- + +1. That if Paris doth contain but 488,000 souls, that then all +Holland containeth but the double of that number, or 976,000, +wherefore London, containing 696,000 souls, hath above two-thirds of +all Holland by 46,000. + +2. If Paris containeth half as many people as there are in all +England, it must contain 3,500,000 souls, or above seven times +488,000; and because there do not die 20,000 per annum out of Paris, +there must die but one out of 175; whereas Monsieur Auzout thinks +that there dies one out of 25, and there must live 149 heads in +every house of Paris mentioned in the register, but there must be +scarce two heads in every house of England, all which we think fit +to be reconsidered. + +I must, as an Englishman, take notice of one point more, which is, +that these assertions do reflect upon the empire of England, for +that it is said that England hath but 2,000,000 inhabitants, and it +might as well have been added, that Scotland and Ireland, with the +Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, have but two-fifths of the +same number, or 800,000 more, or that all the King of England's +subjects in Europe are but 2,800,000 souls, whereas he saith that +the subjects of the seven united provinces are 4,000,000. To which +we answer that the subjects of the said seven provinces are, by this +objector's own showing, but the quadruple of Paris, or 1,932,000 +souls, Paris containing but 488,000, as afore hath been proved, and +we do here affirm that England hath 7,000,000 people, and that +Scotland, Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, +hath two-fifths of the said number, or 2,800,000 more, in all +9,800,000; whereas by the objector's doctrine, if the seven +provinces have 1,932,000 people, the King of England's territories +should have but seven-tenths of the same number, viz., 1,351,000, +whereas we say 9,800,000, as aforesaid, which difference is so gross +as that it deserves to be thus reflected upon. + +To conclude, we expect from the concerned critics of the world that +they would prove - + +1. That Holland, and West Frisia, and the twenty-eight towns and +cities thereof, hath more people than London alone. + +2. That any three of the best cities of France, any two of all +Christendom, or any one of the world, hath the same, or better +housing, and more foreign trade than London, even in the year that +King James the Second came to the empire thereof. + + + + +OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. + + + + +Founded upon the Calculations of Gregory King, Lancaster Herald, and +forming part of "An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a +People gainers in the Balance of Trade." Published in 1699. + + +The writer of these papers has seen the natural and political +observations and conclusions upon the state and condition of England +by Gregory King, Esq., Lancaster Herald, in manuscript. The +calculations therein contained are very accurate, and more perhaps +to be relied upon than anything that has been ever done of the like +kind. This skilful and laborious gentleman has taken the right +course to form his several schemes about the numbers of the people, +for besides many different ways of working, he has very carefully +inspected the poll-books, and the distinctions made by those acts, +and the produce in many of the respective polls, going everywhere by +reasonable and discreet mediums: besides which pains, he has made +observations of the very facts in particular towns and places, from +which he has been able to judge and conclude more safely of others, +so that he seems to have looked further into this mystery than any +other person. + +With his permission, we shall offer to the public such of his +computations as may be of use, and enlighten in the matter before +us. + +He lays down that if the first peopling of England was by a colony +or colonies, consisting of a number between 100 and 1,000 people +(which seems probable), such colony or colonies might be brought +over between the year of the world 2400 and 2600, viz., about 800 or +900 years after the Flood, and 1,400 or 1,500 years before the birth +of Christ, at which time the world might have about 1,000,000 +families, and 4,000,000 or 5,000,000 people. + +From which hypothesis it will follow by an orderly series of +increase - + +That when the Romans invaded England fifty-three years before +Christ's time, the kingdom might have about 360,000 people, and at +Christ's birth about 400,000. + +That at the Norman Conquest, A.D. 1066, the kingdom might contain +somewhat above 2,000,000. + +That A.D. 1260, or about 200 years after the Norman Conquest, it +might contain about 2,750,000 people, or half the present number: +so that the people of England may have doubled in about 435 years +last past. + +That in all probability the next doubling will be in about 600 years +to come, viz., by the year 2300, at which time it may have about +11,000,000 people, and the kingdom containing about 39,000,000 of +acres, there will be then about three acres and a half per head. + +That the increase of the kingdom for every hundred years of the last +preceding term of doubling, and the subsequent term of doubling, may +have been and in all probability may be, according to the following +scheme:- + + +Anno Number of Increase every +Domini. people. hundred years. +1300 2,800,000 +1400 3,300,000 440,000. +1500 3,840,000 540,000. +1600 4,620,000 780,000. +1700 5,500,000 880,000. +1800 6,420,000 920,000. +1900 7,350,000 930,000. +2000 8,280,000 930,000. +2100 9,205,000 925,000. +2200 10,115,000 910,000. +2300 11,000,000 885,000. + +Whereby it may appear that the increase of the kingdom being 880,000 +people in the last hundred years, and 920,000 in the next succeeding +hundred years, the annual increase at this time may be about 9,000 +souls per annum. + +But whereas the yearly births of the + kingdom are about 1 in 28.95, or 190,000 souls. +And the yearly burials 1 in 32.35 or 170,000 souls. +Whereby the yearly increase would be 20,000 souls. + +It is to be noted-- Per ann. + +1. That the allowance for + plagues and great mortalities + may come to at a medium 4,000 +2. Foreign or civil wars at a + medium 3,500 +3. The sea constantly employing 11,000 per annum. + about 40,000, may precipitate 2,500 + the death of about +4. The plantations (over and above + the accession of foreigners) 1,000 + may carry away +Whereby the net annual increase may +be but 9,000 souls. + +That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the annual increase of +the kingdom by procreation, were it not for the before-mentioned +abatements. + +The country increases annually + by procreation 20,000 souls. +The cities and towns, exclusive + of London, by procreation 2,000 souls. +But London and the bills of + mortality decrease annually 2,000 souls. + + +So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls per annum to keep it +from decreasing, besides a further supply of about 3,000 per annum +for its increase at this time. In all 5,000, or above a half of the +kingdom's net increase. + +Mr. King further observes that by the assessments on marriages, +births, and burials, and the collectors' returns thereupon, and by +the parish registers, it appears that the proportions of marriages, +births, and burials are according to the following scheme + + +Vide Scheme A. + + +Whence it may be observed that in 10,000 coexisting persons there +are 71 or 72 marriages in the country, producing 343 children; 78 +marriages in towns producing 351 children; 94 marriages in London, +producing 376 children. + +Whereby it follows - + +1. That though each marriage in London produces fewer people than +in the country, yet London in general having a greater proportion of +breeders, is more prolific than the other great towns, and the great +towns are more prolific than the country. + +2. That if the people of London of all ages were as long-lived as +those in the country, London would increase in people much faster +pro rata than the country. + +3. That the reasons why each marriage in London produces fewer +children than the country marriages seem to be - + +(1) From the more frequent fornications and adulteries. + +(2) From a greater luxury and intemperance. + +(3) From a greater intentness on business. + +(4) From the unhealthfulness of the coal smoke. + +(5) From a greater inequality of age between the husbands and wives. + +(6) From the husbands and wives not living so long as in the +country. + +He further observes, accounting the people to be 5,500,000, that the +said five millions and a half (including the transitory people and +vagrants) appear by the assessments on marriages, births, and +burials, to bear the following proportions in relation to males and +females, and other distinctions of the people, viz.:- + + +SCHEMA A + + +People Annual Marriages +Producing + +children + In all each + +530,000 London and bills of mortality 1 in 106 5,000 4.0 +870,000 The cities and market towns 1 in 128 6,800 4.5 +4,100,000 The villages and hamlets 1 in 141 29,200 4.8 +5,500,000 1 in 134 41,000 +4.64 + + Annual Births Annual Burials + In all In +all +London and bills of mortality 1 in 26.5 20,000 1 in 24.1 +22,000 +The cities and market towns 1 in 28.5 30,600 1 in 30.4 +28,600 +The villages and hamlets 1 in 29.4 29,200 1 in 34.4 +119,400 + 1 in 28.95 190,000 1 in 32.35 +170,000 + + +Vide Scheme B. + + +So that the number of communicants is in all 3,260,000 souls; and +the number of fighting men between sixteen and sixty is 1,308,000. + +SCHEME B. + + Males Females Males Females Both +In London and 10 to 13 230,000 300,000 530,000 + bills of mortality +In the other cities 8 to 9 410,000 460,000 870,000 + and market-towns +In the villages and 100 to 99 2,060,000 2,040,000 4,100,000 + hamlets + 27 to 28 2,700,000 2,800,000 5,500,000 + +That as to other distinctions they appear by the said assessments to +bear these proportions. + + People. Males. Females. +Husbands and wives 1,900,000 950,000 950,000 + at above, 34.5% +Widowers at above 1.5% 90,000 90,000 +Widows at about 4.5% 240,000 240,000 +Children at above 45% 2,500,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 +Servants at about 10.5% 560,000 260,000 300,000 +Sojourners and + single persons 4% 210,000 100,000 110,000 + 100% 5,500,000 2,700,000 2,800,000 + +And that the different proportions in each of the said articles +between London, the great towns, and the villages, may the better +appear, he has formed the following scheme:- + + London and Bills The other Cities The Villages and + of Mortality. and great Towns. Hamlets. + Souls. Souls. Souls. +Husbands +and +Wives 37% 196,100 36% 313,200 34% 1,394,000 +Widowers 2% 10,600 2% 17,400 1.5% 61,500 +Widows 7% 37,100 6% 52,200 4.5% 184,500 +Children 33% 174,900 40% 348,000 47% 1,927,000 +Servants 13% 68,900 11% 95,700 10% 410,000 +Sojourners 8% 42,400 5% 43,500 3% 123,000 + 100% 530,000 100% 870,000 100% 4,100,000 + + +SCHEME B (Continued) + + +He further observes, supposing the people to be 5,500,000, that the +yearly births of the Kingdom may be 190,000, and that the several +ages of the people may be as follows: + + + In all Males +Females +Those under 1 years old 170,000 88,500 +81,500 +Those under 5 years old 820,000 413,300 +406,700 +Those under 10 years old 1,520,000 762,900 +757,100 +Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 1,578,000 +1,682,000 +Those above 21 years old 2,700,000 1,300,000 +1,400,000 +Those above 25 years old 2,400,000 1,152,000 +1,248,000 +Those above 60 years old 600,000 270,000 +330,000 +Those under 16 years old 2,240,000 +Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 +Total of the people 5,500,000 + + +That the bachelors are about 28 per cent. of the whole, whereof +those under twenty-five years are 25.5 per cent., and those above +twenty-five years are 2.5 per cent. + +That the maidens are about 28.5 per cent. of the whole. + +Whereof those under 25 years are 26.5 per cent. + +And those above 25 years are 2 per cent. + +That the males and females in the kingdom in general are aged, one +with another, 27 years and a half. + +That in the kingdom in general there is near as many people living +under 20 years of age as there is above 20, whereof half of the +males are under 19, and one half of the females are under 21 years. + +That the ages of the people, according to their several +distinctions, are as follows, viz.:- + + +Vide Scheme C. + + +Having thus stated the numbers of the people, he gives a scheme of +the income and expense of the several families of England, +calculated for the year 1688. + +SCHEME C + + +The husbands are aged 43 years apiece, which, at 17.25% makes 742 +years. +The wives 40 17.25% 690 +The widowers 56 1.5% 84 +The widows 60 4.5% 270 +The children 12 45% 540 +The servants 27 10.5% 284 +The sojourners 35 4% 140 +At a medium 27.5 100 2,750 + + + +Vide Scheme D. + + +Mr. King's modesty has been so far overruled as to suffer us to +communicate these his excellent computations, which we can the more +safely commend, having examined them very carefully, tried them by +some little operations of our own upon the same subject, and +compared them with the schemes of other persons, who take pleasure +in the like studies. + +What he says concerning the number of the people to be 5,500,000 is +no positive assertion, nor shall we pretend anywhere to determine in +that matter; what he lays down is by way of hypothesis, that +supposing the inhabitants of England to have been, A.D. 1300, +2,860,000 heads, by the orderly series of increase allowed of by all +writers they may probably be about A.D. 1700, 5,500,000 heads; but +if they were A.D. 1300 either less or more, the case must +proportionably alter; for as to his allowances for plagues, great +mortalities, civil wars, the sea, and the plantations, they seem +very reasonable, and not well to be controverted. + +Upon these schemes of Mr. King we shall make several remarks, though +the text deserves much a better comment. + + + +SCHEME D.--A SCHEME OF THE INCOME AND EXPENSE OF THE SEVERAL + FAMILIES OF ENGLAND, CALCULATED FOR THE YEAR + 1688 +Number of Ranks, Degrees and Heads per + Families. Qualifications Family. + 160 Temporal Lords 40 + 26 Spiritual Lords 20 + 800 Baronets 16 + 600 Knights 13 + 3,000 Esquires 10 + 12,000 Gentlemen 8 + 5,000 Persons in greater offices and places 8 + 5,000 Persons in lesser offices and places 6 + 2,000 Eminent merchants and traders by sea 8 + 8,000 Lesser merchants and traders by sea 6 + 10,000 Persons in the law 7 + 2,000 Eminent clergymen 6 + 8,000 Lesser clergymen 5 + 40,000 Freeholders of the better sort 7 + 120,000 Freeholders of the lesser sort 5.5 + 150,000 Farmers 5 + 15,000 Persons in liberal arts and sciences 5 + 50,000 Shopkeepers and tradesmen 4.5 + 60,000 Artisans and handicrafts 4 + 5,000 Naval officers 4 + 4,000 Military officers 4 + 500,586 5.33 + 50,000 Common seamen 3 + 364,000 Labouring people and out-servants 3.5 + 400,000 Cottagers and paupers 3.25 + 35,000 Common soldiers 2 + 849,000 + Vagrants, as gipsies, thieves, + beggars, &c. 3.25 + 500,586 Increasing the wealth of the kingdom 5.33 + 849,000 Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom 3.25 +1,349,586 Net totals 4 1/13 + + +[The previous table continues but is too wide for the page. It has +been split down the middle--DP.] + + + Number Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly + of Income Income Income Expense Increase Incr. + Persons per. in per. per per. in + Family general Hd. Hd. Hd. General + P. s. P. P. s. P. s. d. P.s. d. P. + 6,400 3,200 0 512,000 80 0 70 0 0 10 0 0 64,000 + 520 1,300 0 33,800 65 0 45 0 0 20 0 0 10,400 + 12,800 880 0 704,000 55 0 49 0 0 6 0 0 76,800 + 7,800 650 0 390,000 50 0 45 0 0 5 0 0 39,000 + 30,000 450 0 1,200,000 45 0 41 0 0 4 0 0 120,000 + 96,000 280 0 2,880,000 35 0 32 0 0 3 0 0 288,000 + 40,000 240 0 1,200,000 30 0 26 0 0 4 0 0 160,000 + 30,000 120 0 600,000 20 0 17 0 0 3 0 0 90,000 + 16,000 400 0 800,000 50 0 37 0 0 13 0 0 208,000 + 48,000 198 0 1,600,000 33 0 27 0 0 6 0 0 288,000 + 70,000 154 0 1,540,000 22 0 18 0 0 4 0 0 280,000 + 12,000 72 0 144,000 12 0 10 0 0 2 0 0 24,000 + 40,000 50 0 400,000 10 0 9 4 0 0 16 0 32,000 + 280,000 91 0 3,640,000 13 0 11 15 0 1 5 0 350,000 + 660,000 55 0 6,600,000 10 0 9 10 0 0 10 0 330,000 + 750,000 42 10 6,375,000 8 10 8 5 0 0 5 0 187,500 + 75,000 60 0 900,000 12 0 11 0 0 1 0 0 75,000 + 225,000 45 0 2,250,000 10 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 225,000 + 240,000 38 0 2,280,000 9 10 9 0 0 0 10 0 120,000 + 20,000 80 0 400,000 20 0 18 0 0 2 0 0 40,000 + 16,000 60 0 240,000 15 0 14 0 0 1 0 0 16,000 +2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 l1 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700 + Decrease.Decrease. + 150,000 20 0 1,000,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 75,000 +1,275,000 15 0 5,460,000 4 10 4 12 0 0 2 0 127,500 +1,300,000 6 10 2,000,000 2 0 2 5 0 0 5 0 325,000 + 70,000 14 0 490,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 35,000 +2,795,000 10 10 8,950,000 3 5 3 9 0 0 4 0 562,500 + 30,000 60,000 2 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 60,000 + So the General Account is +2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 11 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700 +2,825,000 10 10 9,010,000 3 3 3 7 6 0 4 6 622,500 +5,500,520 32 5 43,491,800 7 18 7 9 3 0 8 9 2,401,200 + +The people being the first matter of power and wealth, by whose +labour and industry a nation must be gainers in the balance, their +increase or decrease must be carefully observed by any government +that designs to thrive; that is, their increase must be promoted by +good conduct and wholesome laws, and if they have been decreased by +war, or any other accident, the breach is to be made up as soon as +possible, for it is a maim in the body politic affecting all its +parts. + +Almost all countries in the world have been more or less populous, +as liberty and property have been there well or ill secured. The +first constitution of Rome was no ill-founded government, a kingly +power limited by laws; and the people increased so fast, that, from +a small beginning, in the reign of their sixth king were they able +to send out an army of 80,000 men. And in the time of the +commonwealth, in that invasion which the Gauls made upon Italy, not +long before Hannibal came thither, they were grown so numerous, as +that their troops consisted of 700,000 foot and 70,000 horse; it is +true their allies were comprehended in this number, but the ordinary +people fit to bear arms being mustered in Rome and Campania, +amounted to 250,000 foot and 23,000 horse. + +Nothing, therefore, can more contribute to the rendering England +populous and strong than to have liberty upon a right footing, and +our legal constitution firmly preserved. A nation may be as well +called free under a limited kingship as in a commonwealth, and it is +to this good form of our government that we partly owe that doubling +of the people which has probably happened here in the 435 years last +past. And if the ambition of some, and the mercenary temper of +others, should bring us at any time to alter our constitution, and +to give up our ancient rights, we shall find our numbers diminish +visibly and fast. For liberty encourages procreation, and not only +keeps our own inhabitants among us, but invites strangers to come +and live under the shelter of our laws. + +The Romans, indeed, made use of an adventitious help to enlarge +their city, which was by incorporating foreign cities and nations +into their commonwealth; but this way is not without its mischiefs. +For the strangers in Rome by degrees had grown so numerous, and to +have so great a vote in the councils, that the whole Government +began to totter, and decline from its old to its new inhabitants, +which Fabius the censor observing, he applied a remedy in time by +reducing all the new citizens into four tribes, that being +contracted into so narrow a space, they might not have so malignant +an influence upon the city. + +An Act of general naturalisation would likewise probably increase +our numbers very fast, and repair what loss we may have suffered in +our people by the late war. It is a matter that has been very +warmly contended for by many good patriots; but peradventure it +carries also its danger with it, which perhaps would have the less +influence by this expedient, namely, if an Act of Parliament were +made, that no heads of families hereafter to be naturalised for the +first generation, should have votes in any of our elections. But as +the case stands, it seems against the nature of right government +that strangers (who may be spies, and who may have an interest +opposite to that of England, and who at best ever join in one link +of obsequiousness to the Ministers) should be suffered to +intermeddle in that important business of sending members to +Parliament. From their sons indeed there is less to fear, who by +birth and nature may come to have the same interest and inclinations +as the natives. + +And though the expedient of Fabius Maximus, to contract the +strangers into four tribes, might be reasonable where the affairs of +a whole empire were transacted by magistrates chosen in one city, +yet the same policy may not hold good in England; foreigners cannot +influence elections here by being dispersed about in the several +counties of the kingdom, where they can never come to have any +considerable strength. But some time or other they may endanger the +government by being suffered to remain, such vast numbers of them +here in London where they inhabit altogether, at least 30,000 +persons in two quarters of the town, without intermarrying with the +English, or learning our language, by which means for several years +to come they are in a way still to continue foreigners, and perhaps +may have a foreign interest and foreign inclinations; to permit this +cannot be advisable or safe. It may therefore be proper to limit +any new Acts of naturalisation with such restrictions as may make +the accession of strangers not dangerous to the public. + +An accession of strangers, well regulated, may add to our strength +and numbers; but then it must be composed of labouring men, +artificers, merchants, and other rich men, and not of foreign +soldiers, since such fright and drive away from a nation more people +than their troops can well consist of: for if it has been ever seen +that men abound most where there is most freedom (China excepted, +whose climate excels all others, and where the exercise of the +tyranny is mild and easy) it must follow that people will in time +desert those countries whose best flower is their liberties, if +those liberties are thought precarious or in danger. That foreign +soldiers are dangerous to liberty, we may produce examples from all +countries and all ages; but we shall instance only one, because it +is eminent above all the rest. + +The Carthaginians, in their wars, did very much use mercenary and +foreign troops; and when the peace was made between them and the +Romans, after a long dispute for the dominion of Sicily, they +brought their army home to be paid and disbanded, which Gesco, their +General, had the charge of embarking, who did order all his part +with great dexterity and wisdom. But the State of Carthage wanting +money to clear arrears, and satisfy the troops, was forced to keep +them up longer than was designed. The army consisted of Gauls, +Ligurians, Baleareans, and Greeks. At first they were insolent in +their quarters in Carthage, and were prevailed upon to remove to +Sicca, where they were to remain and expect their pay. There they +grew presently corrupted with ease and pleasure, and fell into +mutinies and disorder, and to making extravagant demands of pay and +gratuities; and in a rage, with their arms in their hands, they +marched 20,000 of them towards Carthage, encamping within fifteen +miles of the city; and chose Spendius and Matho, two profligate +wretches, for their leaders, and imprisoned Gesco, who was deputed +to them from the commonwealth. Afterwards they caused almost all +the Africans, their tributaries, to revolt; they grew in a short +time to be 70,000 strong; they fought several battles with Hanno and +Hamilcar Barcas. During these transactions, the mercenaries that +were in garrison in Sardinia mutinied likewise, murdering their +commander and all the Carthaginians; while Spendius and Matho, to +render their accomplices more desperate, put Gesco to a cruel death, +presuming afterwards to lay siege to Carthage itself. They met with +a shock indeed at Prion, where 40,000 of them were slaughtered; but +soon after this battle, in another they took one of the Carthaginian +generals prisoner, whom they fixed to a cross, crucifying thirty of +the principal senators round about him. Spendius and Matho were at +last taken, the one crucified and the other tormented to death: but +the war lasted three years and near four months with excessive +cruelty; in which the State of Carthage lost several battles, and +was often brought within a hair's-breadth of utter ruin. + +If so great a commonwealth as Carthage, though assisted at that time +by Hiero, King of Syracuse, and by the Romans, ran the hazard of +losing their empire, city, and liberties, by the insurrection of a +handful of mercenaries, whose first strength was but 20,000 men; it +should be a warning to all free nations how they suffer armies so +composed to be among them, and it should frighten a wise State from +desiring such an increase of people as may be had by the bringing +over foreign soldiers. + +Indeed, all armies whatsoever, if they are over-large, tend to the +dispeopling of a country, of which our neighbour nation is a +sufficient proof, where in one of the best climates in Europe men +are wanting to till the ground. For children do not proceed from +the intemperate pleasures taken loosely and at random, but from a +regular way of living, where the father of the family desires to +rear up and provide for the offspring he shall beget. + +Securing the liberties of a nation may be laid down as a fundamental +for increasing the numbers of its people; but there are other +polities thereunto conducing which no wise State has ever neglected. + +No race of men did multiply so fast as the Jews, which may be +attributed chiefly to the wisdom of Moses their Lawgiver, in +contriving to promote the state of marriage. + +The Romans had the same care, paying no respect to a man childless +by his own fault, and giving great immunities and privileges, both +in the city and provinces, to those who had such and such a number +of children. Encouragements of the like kind are also given in +France to such as enrich the commonwealth by a large issue. + +But we in England have taken another course, laying a fine upon the +marriage bed, which seems small to those who only contemplate the +pomp and wealth round about them, and in their view; but they who +look into all the different ranks of men are well satisfied that +this duty on marriages and births is a very grievous burden upon the +poorer sort, whose numbers compose the strength and wealth of any +nation. This tax was introduced by the necessity of affairs. It is +difficult to say what may be the event of a new thing; but if we are +to take measures from past wisdom, which exempted prolific families +from public duties, we should not lay impositions upon those who +find it hard enough to maintain themselves. If this tax be such a +weight upon the poor as to discourage marriage and hinder +propagation, which seems the truth, no doubt it ought to be +abolished; and at a convenient time we ought to change it for some +other duty, if there were only this single reason, that it is so +directly opposite to the polity of all ages and all countries. + +In order to have hands to carry on labour and manufactures, which +must make us gainers in the balance of trade, we ought not to deter, +but rather invite men to marry, which is to be done by privileges +and exemptions for such a number of children, and by denying certain +offices of trust and dignities to all unmarried persons; and where +it is once made a fashion among those of the better sort, it will +quickly obtain with the lower degree. + +Mr. King, in his scheme (for which he has as authentic grounds as +perhaps the matter is capable of) lays down that the annual +marriages of England are about 41,000, which is one marriage out of +every 134 persons. Upon which, we observe, that this is not a due +proportion, considering how few of our adult males (in comparison +with other countries) perish by war or any other accident; from +whence may be inferred that our polity is some way or other +defective, or the marriages would bear a nearer proportion with the +gross number of our people; for which defect, if a remedy can be +found, there will be so much more strength added to the kingdom. + +From the books of assessment on births, marriages, &c., by the +nearest view he can make, he divides the 5,500,000 people into +2,700,000 males and 2,800,000 females; from whence (considering the +females exceed the males in number, and considering that the men +marry later than women, and that many of the males are of necessity +absent in the wars, at sea, and upon other business) it follows that +a large proportion of the females remain unmarried, though at an +adult age, which is a dead loss to the nation, every birth being as +so much certain treasure, upon which account such laws must be for +the public good, as induce all men to marry whose circumstances +permit it. + +From his division of the people it may be likewise observed, that +the near proportion there is between the males and females (which is +said to hold also in other places) is an argument (and the strongest +that can be produced) against polygamy, and the increase of mankind +which some think might be from thence expected; for if Nature had +intended to one man a plurality of wives, she would have ordered a +great many more female births than male, her designments being +always right and wise. + +The securing the parish for bastard children is become so small a +punishment and so easily compounded, that it very much hinders +marriage. The Dutch compel men of all ranks to marry the woman whom +they have got with child, and perhaps it would tend to the further +peopling of England if the common people here, under such a certain +degree, were condemned by some new law to suffer the same penalty. + +A country that makes provision to increase in inhabitants, whose +situation is good, and whose people have a genius adapted to trade, +will never fail to be gainers in the balance, provided the labour +and industry of their people be well managed and carefully directed. + +The more any man contemplates these matters the more he will come to +be of opinion, that England is capable of being rendered one of the +strongest nations, and the richest spot of ground in Europe. + +It is not extent of territory that makes a country powerful, but +numbers of men well employed, convenient ports, a good navy, and a +soil producing all sort of commodities. The materials for all this +we have, and so improvable, that if we did but second the gifts of +Nature with our own industry we should soon arrive to a pitch of +greatness that would put us at least upon an equal footing with any +of our neighbours. + +If we had the complement of men our land can maintain and nourish; +if we had as much trade as our stock and knowledge in sea affairs is +capable of embracing; if we had such a naval strength as a trade so +extended would easily produce; and, if we had those stores and that +wealth which is the certain result of a large and well-governed +traffic, what human strength could hurt or invade us? On the +contrary, should we not be in a posture not only to resist but to +give the law to others? + +Our neighbouring commonwealth has not in territory above 8,000,000 +acres, and perhaps not much above 2,200,000 people, and yet what a +figure have they made in Europe for these last 100 years? What wars +have they maintained? What forces have they resisted? and to what a +height of power are they now come, and all by good order and wise +government? + +They are liable to frequent invasions; they labour under the +inconvenience and danger of bad ports; they consume immense sums +every year to defend their land against the sea; all which +difficulties they have subdued by an unwearied industry. + +We are fenced by nature against foreign enemies, our ports are safe, +we fear no irruptions of the sea, our land territory at home is at +least 39,000,000 acres. We have in all likelihood not less than +5,500,000 people. What a nation might we then become, if all these +advantages were thoroughly improved, and if a right application were +made of all this strength and of these numbers? + +They who apprehend the immoderate growth of any prince or State may, +perhaps, succeed by beginning first, and by attempting to pull down +such a dangerous neighbour, but very often their good designs are +disappointed. In all appearance they proceed more safely, who, +under such a fear, make themselves strong and powerful at home. And +this was the course which Philip, King of Macedon, the father of +Perseus, took, when he thought to be invaded by the Romans. + +The greatness of Rome gave Carthage very anxious thoughts, and it +rather seems that they entered into the second Punic War more for +fear the Romans should have the universal empire, than out of any +ambition to lord it themselves over the whole world. Their design +was virtuous, and peradventure wise to endeavour at some early +interruption to a rival that grew so fast. However, we see they +miscarried, though their armies were led by Hannibal. But fortune +which had determined the dominion of the earth for Rome, did, +perhaps, lead them into the fatal counsel of passing the Eber +contrary to the articles of peace concluded with Asdrubal, and of +attacking Saguntum before they had sufficiently recovered of the +wounds they had suffered in the wars about Sicily, Sardinia, and +with their own rebels. If the high courage of Hannibal had not +driven the commonwealth into a new war while it was yet faint and +weak, and if they had been suffered to pursue their victories in +Spain, and to get firm footing in that rich, warlike, and then +populous country, very probably in a few years they might have been +a more equal match for the Roman people. It is true, if the Romans +had endeavoured, at the conquest of Spain, and if they had disturbed +the Carthaginians in that country, the war must have been +unavoidable, because it was evident in that age, and will be +apparent in the times we live in, that whatever foreign power, +already grown great, can add to its dominion the possession of +Spain, will stand fair for universal empire. + +But unless some such cogent reason of state, as is here instanced, +intervene, in all appearance the best way for a nation that +apprehends the growing power of any neighbour is to fortify itself +within; we do not mean by land armies, which rather debilitate than +strengthen a country, but by potent navies, by thrift in the public +treasure, care of the people's trade, and all the other honest and +useful arts of peace. + +By such an improvement of our native strength, agreeable to the laws +and to the temper of a free nation, England without doubt may be +brought to so good a posture and condition of defending itself, as +not to apprehend any neighbour jealous of its strength or envious of +its greatness. + +And to this end we open these schemes, that a wise Government under +which we live, not having any designs to become arbitrary, may see +what materials they have to work upon, and how far our native wealth +is able to second their good intentions of preserving us a rich and +a free people. + +Having said something of the number of our inhabitants, we shall +proceed to discourse of their different degrees and ranks, and to +examine who are a burden and who are a profit to the public, for by +how much every part and member of the commonwealth can be made +useful to the whole, by so much a nation will be more and more a +gainer in this balance of trade which we are to treat of. + +Mr. King, from the assessments on births and marriages, and from the +polls, has formed the scheme here inserted, of the ranks, degrees, +titles and qualifications of the people. He has done it so +judiciously, and upon such grounds, that is well worth the careful +perusal of any curious person, from thence we shall make some +observations in order to put our present matter in a clearer light. + +First, this scheme detects their error, who in the calculation they +frame contemplate nothing but the wealth and plenty they see in rich +cities and great towns, and from thence make a judgment of the +kingdom's remaining part, and from this view conclude that taxes and +payments to the public do mostly arise from the gentry and better +sort, by which measures they neither contrive their imposition +aright, nor are they able to give a true estimate what it shall +produce; but when we have divided the inhabitants of England into +their proper classes, it will appear that the nobility and gentry +are but a small part of the whole body of the people. + +Believing that taxes fell chiefly upon the better sort, they care +not what they lay, as thinking they will not be felt; but when they +come to be levied, they either fall short, and so run the public +into an immense debt, or they light so heavily upon the poorer sort, +as to occasion insufferable clamours; and they, whose proper +business it was to contrive these matters better have been so +unskilful, that the legislative power has been more than once +compelled for the peoples' ease to give new funds, instead of others +that had been ill projected. + +This may be generally said, that all duties whatsoever upon the +consumption of a large produce, fall with the greatest weight upon +the common sort, so that such as think in new duties that they +chiefly tax the rich will find themselves quite mistaken; for either +their fund must yield little, or it must arise from the whole body +of the people, of which the richer sort are but a small proportion. + +And though war, and national debts and engagements, might heretofore +very rationally plead for excises upon our home consumption, yet now +there is a peace, it is the concern of every man that loves his +country to proceed warily in laying new ones, and to get off those +which are already laid as fast as ever he can. High customs and +high excises both together are incompatible, either of them alone +are to be endured, but to have them co-exist is suffered in no well- +governed nation. If materials of foreign growth were at an easy +rate, a high price might be the better borne in things of our own +product, but to have both dear at once (and by reason of the duties +laid upon them) is ruinous to the inferior rank of men, and this +ought to weigh more with us, when we consider that even of the +common people a subdivision is to be made, of which one part subsist +from their own havings, arts, labour, and industry; and the other +part subsist a little from their own labour, but chiefly from the +help and charity of the rank that is above them. For according to +Mr. King's scheme - + +The nobility and gentry, with their families and retainers, the +persons in offices, merchants, persons in the law, the clergy, +freeholders, farmers, persons in sciences and liberal arts, +shopkeepers, and tradesmen, handicrafts, men, naval officers, with +the families and dependants upon all these altogether, make up the +number of 2,675,520 heads. + +The common seamen, common soldiers, labouring people, and out- +servants, cottagers, paupers, and their families, with the vagrants, +make up the number of 2,825,000 heads. + +In all 5,500,520 heads. + +So that here seems a majority of the people, whose chief dependence +and subsistence is from the other part, which majority is much +greater, in respect of the number of families, because 500,000 +families contribute to the support of 850,000 families. In +contemplation of which, great care should be taken not to lay new +duties upon the home consumption, unless upon the extremest +necessities of the State; for though such impositions cannot be said +to fall directly upon the lower rank, whose poverty hinders them +from consuming such materials (though there are few excises to which +the meanest person does not pay something), yet indirectly, and by +unavoidable consequences, they are rather more affected by high +duties upon our home-consumption than the wealthier degree of +people, and so we shall find the case to be, if we look carefully +into all the distinct ranks of men there enumerated. + +First, as to the nobility and gentry, they must of necessity +retrench their families and expenses, if excessive impositions are +laid upon all sorts of materials for consumption, from whence +follows, that the degree below them of merchants, shopkeepers, +tradesmen, and artisans, must want employment. + +Secondly, as to the manufactures, high excises in time of peace are +utterly destructive to that principal part of England's wealth; for +if malt, coals, salt, leather, and other things, bear a great price, +the wages of servants, workmen, and artificers, will consequently +rise, for the income must bear some proportion with the expense; and +if such as set the poor to work find wages for labour or manufacture +advance upon them, they must rise in the price of their commodity, +or they cannot live, all which would signify little, if nothing but +our own dealings among one another were thereby affected; but it has +a consequence far more pernicious in relation to our foreign trade, +for it is the exportation of our own product that must make England +rich; to be gainers in the balance of trade, we must carry out of +our own product what will purchase the things of foreign growth that +are needful for our own consumption, with some overplus either in +bullion or goods to be sold in other countries, which overplus is +the profit a nation makes by trade, and it is more or less according +to the natural frugality of the people that export, or as from the +low price of labour and manufacture they can afford the commodity +cheap, and at a rate not to be undersold in foreign markets. The +Dutch, whose labour and manufactures are dear by reason of home +excises, can notwithstanding sell cheap abroad, because this +disadvantage they labour under is balanced by the parsimonious +temper of their people; but in England, where this frugality is +hardly to be introduced, if the duties upon our home consumption are +so large as to raise considerably the price of labour and +manufacture, all our commodities for exportation must by degrees so +advance in the prime value, that they cannot be sold at a rate which +will give them vent in foreign markets, and we must be everywhere +undersold by our wiser neighbours. But the consequence of such +duties in times of peace will fall most heavily upon our woollen +manufactures, of which most have more value from the workmanship +than the material; and if the price of this workmanship be enhanced, +it will in a short course of time put a necessity upon those we deal +with of setting up manufactures of their own, such as they can, or +of buying goods of the like kind and use from nations that can +afford them cheaper. And in this point we are to consider, that the +bulk of our woollen exports does not consist in draperies made of +the fine wool, peculiar to our soil, but is composed of coarse broad +cloths, such as Yorkshire cloths, kerseys, which make a great part +of our exports, and may be, and are made of a coarser wool, which is +to be had in other countries. So that we are not singly to value +ourselves upon the material, but also upon the manufacture, which we +should make as easy as we can, by not laying over-heavy burdens upon +the manufacturer. And our woollen goods being two-thirds of our +foreign exports, it ought to be the chief object of the public care, +if we expect to be gainers in the balance of trade, which is what we +hunt after in these inquiries. + +Thirdly, as to the lower rank of all, which we compute at 2,825,000 +heads, a majority of the whole people, their principal subsistence +is upon the degrees above them, and if those are rendered uneasy +these must share in the calamity, but even of this inferior sort no +small proportion contribute largely to excises, as labourers and +out-servants, which likewise affect the common seamen, who must +thereupon raise their wages or they will not have wherewithal to +keep their families left at home, and the high wages of seamen is +another burden upon our foreign traffic. As to the cottagers, who +are about a fifth part of the whole people, some duties reach even +them, as those upon malt, leather, and salt, but not much because of +their slender consumption, but if the gentry, upon whose woods and +gleanings they live, and who employ them in day labour, and if the +manufacturers, for whom they card and spin, are overburdened with +duties, they cannot afford to give them so much for their labour and +handiwork, nor to yield them those other reliefs which are their +principal subsistence, for want of which these miserable wretches +must perish with cold and hunger. + +Thus we see excises either directly or indirectly fall upon the +whole body of the people, but we do not take notice of these matters +as receding from our former opinion. On the contrary, we still +think them the most easy and equal way of taxing a nation, and +perhaps it is demonstrable that if we had fallen into this method at +the beginning of the war of raising the year's expense within the +year by excises, England had not been now indebted so many millions, +but what was advisable under such a necessity and danger is not to +be pursued in times of peace, especially in a country depending so +much upon trade and manufactures. + +Our study now ought to be how those debts may be speedily cleared +off, for which these new revenues are the funds, that trade may +again move freely as it did heretofore, without such a heavy clog; +but this point we shall more amply handle when we come to speak of +our payments to the public. + +Mr. King divides the whole body of the people into two principal +classes, viz.:- + +Increasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,675,520 heads. +Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,825,000 heads. + +By which he means that the first class of the people from land, +arts, and industry maintain themselves, and add every year something +to the nation's general stock, and besides this, out of their +superfluity, contribute every year so much to the maintenance of +others. + +That of the second class some partly maintain themselves by labour +(as the heads of the cottage families), but that the rest, as most +of the wives and children of these, sick and impotent people, idle +beggars and vagrants, are nourished at the cost of others, and are a +yearly burden to the public, consuming annually so much as would be +otherwise added to the nation's general stock. + +The bodies of men are, without doubt, the most valuable treasure of +a country, and in their sphere the ordinary people are as +serviceable to the commonwealth as the rich if they are employed in +honest labour and useful arts, and such being more in number do more +contribute to increase the nation's wealth than the higher rank. + +But a country may be populous and yet poor (as were the ancient +Gauls and Scythians), so that numbers, unless they are well +employed, make the body politic big but unwieldy, strong but +unactive, as to any uses of good government. + +Theirs is a wrong opinion who think all mouths profit a country that +consume its produce, and it may be more truly affirmed, that he who +does not some way serve the commonwealth, either by being employed +or by employing others, is not only a useless, but a hurtful member +to it. + +As it is charity, and what we indeed owe to human kind, to make +provision for the aged, the lame, the sick, blind, and impotent, so +it is a justice we owe to the commonwealth not to suffer such as +have health, and who might maintain themselves, to be drones and +live upon the labour of others. + +The bulk of such as are a burden to the public consists in the +cottagers and paupers, beggars in great cities and towns, and +vagrants. + +Upon a survey of the hearth books, made in Michaelmas, 1685, it was +found that of the 1,300,000 houses in the whole kingdom, those of +one chimney amounted to 554,631, but some of these having land about +them, in all our calculations, we have computed the cottagers but at +500,000 families; but of these, a large number may get their own +livelihood, and are no charge to the parish, for which reason Mr. +King very judiciously computes his cottagers and paupers, decreasing +the wealth of the nation but at 400,000 families, in which account +he includes the poor-houses in cities, towns, and villages, besides +which he reckons 30,000 vagrants, and all these together to make up +1,330,000 heads. + +This is a very great proportion of the people to be a burden upon +the other part, and is a weight upon the land interest, of which the +landed gentlemen must certainly be very sensible. + +If this vast body of men, instead of being expensive, could be +rendered beneficial to the commonwealth, it were a work, no doubt, +highly to be promoted by all who love their country. + +It seems evident, to such as have considered these matters, and who +have observed how they are ordered in nations under a good polity, +that the number of such who through age or impotence stand in real +need of relief, is but small and might be maintained for very +little, and that the poor rates are swelled to the extravagant +degree we now see them at by two sorts of people, one of which, by +reason of our slack administration, is suffered to remain in sloth, +and the other, through a defect in our constitution, continue in +wretched poverty for want of employment, though willing enough to +undertake it. + +All this seems capable of a remedy, the laws may be armed against +voluntary idleness, so as to prevent it, and a way may probably be +found out to set those to work who are desirous to support +themselves by their own labour; and if this could be brought about, +it would not only put a stop to the course of that vice which is the +consequence of an idle life, but it would greatly tend to enrich the +commonwealth, for if the industry of not half the people maintain in +some degree the other part, and, besides, in times of peace did add +every year near two million and a half to the general stock of +England, to what pitch of wealth and greatness might we not be +brought, if one limb were not suffered to draw away the nourishment +of the other, and if all the members of the body politic were +rendered useful to it? + +Nature, in her contrivances, has made every part of a living +creature either for ornament or use; the same should be in a politic +institution rightly governed. + +It may be laid down for an undeniable truth, that where all work +nobody will want, and to promote this would be a greater charity and +more meritorious than to build hospitals, which very often are but +so many monuments of ill-gotten riches attended with late +repentance. + +To make as many as possible of these 1,330,000 persons (whereof not +above 330,000 are children too young to work) who now live chiefly +upon others get themselves a large share of their maintenance would +be the opening a new vein of treasure of some millions sterling per +annum; it would be a present ease to every particular man of +substance, and a lasting benefit to the whole body of the kingdom, +for it would not only nourish but increase the numbers of the +people, of which many thousands perish every year by those diseases +contracted under a slothful poverty. + +Our laws relating to the poor are very numerous, and this matter has +employed the care of every age for a long time, though but with +little success, partly through the ill execution, and partly through +some defect in the very laws. + +The corruptions of mankind are grown so great that, now-a-days, laws +are not much observed which do not in a manner execute themselves; +of this nature are those laws which relate to bringing in the +Prince's revenue, which never fail to be put in execution, because +the people must pay, and the Prince will be paid; but where only one +part of the constitution, the people, are immediately concerned, as +in laws relating to the poor, the highways, assizes, and other civil +economy, and good order in the state, those are but slenderly +regarded. + +The public good being therefore, very often, not a motive strong +enough to engage the magistrate to perform his duty, lawgivers have +many times fortified their laws with penalties, wherein private +persons may have a profit, thereby to stir up the people to put the +laws in execution. + +In countries depraved nothing proceeds well wherein particular men +do not one way or other find their account; and rather than a public +good should not go on at all, without doubt, it is better to give +private men some interest to set it forward. + +For which reason it may be worth the consideration of such as study +the prosperity and welfare of England, whether this great engine of +maintaining the poor, and finding them work and employment, may not +be put in motion by giving some body of undertakers a reasonable +gain to put the machine upon its wheels. + +In order to which, we shall here insert a proposal delivered to the +House of Commons last session of Parliament, for the better +maintaining the impotent, and employing and setting to work the +other poor of this kingdom. + +In matters of this nature, it is always good to have some model or +plan laid down, which thinking men may contemplate, alter, and +correct, as they see occasion; and the writer of these papers does +rather choose to offer this scheme, because he is satisfied it was +composed by a gentleman of great abilities, and who has made both +the poor rates, and their number, more his study than any other +person in the nation. The proposal is as follows + + +A Scheme for Setting the Poor to Work. + + +First, that such persons as shall subscribe and pay the sum of +300,000 pounds as a stock for and towards the better maintaining the +impotent poor, and for buying commodities and materials to employ +and set at work the other poor, be incorporated and made one body +politic, &c. By the name of the Governor and Company for +Maintaining and Employing the Poor of this Kingdom. + +By all former propositions, it was intended that the parishes should +advance several years' rates to raise a stock, but by this proposal +the experiment is to be made by private persons at their risk; and +300,000 pounds may be judged a very good stock, which, added to the +poor rates for a certain number of years, will be a very good fund +for buying commodities and materials for a million of money at any +time. This subscription ought to be free for everybody, and if the +sum were subscribed in the several counties of England and Wales, in +proportion to their poor rates, or the monthly assessment, it would +be most convenient; and provision may be made that no person shall +transfer his interest but to one of the same county, which will keep +the interest there during the term; and as to its being one +Corporation, it is presumed this will be most beneficial to the +public. For first, all disputes on removes, which are very +chargeable and burthensome, will be at an end--this proposal +intending, that wherever the poor are, they shall be maintained or +employed. Secondly, it will prevent one county which shall be +diligent, imposing on their neighbours who may be negligent, or +getting away their manufactures from them. Thirdly, in case of +fire, plague, or loss of manufacture, the stock of one county may +not be sufficient to support the places where such calamities may +happen; and it is necessary the whole body should support every +particular member, so that hereby there will be a general care to +administer to every place according to their necessities. + +Secondly, that the said Corporation be established for the term of +one-and-twenty years. + +The Corporation ought to be established for one-and-twenty years, or +otherwise it cannot have the benefit the law gives in case of +infants, which is their service for their education; besides, it +will be some years before a matter of this nature can be brought +into practice. + +Thirdly, that the said sum of 300,000 pounds be paid in, and laid +out for the purposes aforesaid, to remain as a stock for and during +the said term of one-and-twenty years. + +The subscription ought to be taken at the passing of the Act, but +the Corporation to be left at liberty to begin either the Michaelmas +or the Lady Day after, as they shall think fit. And XXX per cent. +to be paid at the subscribing to persons appointed for that purpose, +and the remainder before they begin to act; but so as 300,000 pounds +shall be always in stock during the term, notwithstanding any +dividends or other disposition: and an account thereof to be +exhibited twice in every year upon oath, before the Lord Chancellor +for the time being. + +Fourthly, that the said corporation do by themselves, or agents in +every parish of England, from and after the XXX day of XXX during +the said term of one-and-twenty years, provide for the real impotent +poor good and sufficient maintenance and reception, as good or +better than hath at any time within the space of XXX years before +the said XXX day of XXX been provided or allowed to such impotent +poor, and so shall continue to provide for such impotent poor, and +what other growing impotent poor shall happen in the said parish +during the said term. + +By impotent poor is to be understood all infants and old and +decrepid persons not able to work; also persons who by sickness or +any accident are for the time unable to labour for themselves or +families; and all persons (not being fit for labour) who were +usually relieved by the money raised for the use of the poor; they +shall have maintenance, as good or better, as within XXX years they +used to have. + +This does not directly determine what that shall be, nor is it +possible, by reason a shilling in one county is as much as two in +another; but it will be the interest of the Corporation that such +poor be well provided for, by reason the contrary will occasion all +the complaints or clamour that probably can be made against the +Corporation. + +Fifthly, that the Corporation do provide (as well for all such poor +which on the said XXX day of XXX shall be on the poor books, as for +what other growing poor shall happen in the said term who are or +shall be able to labour or do any work) sufficient labour and work +proper for such persons to be employed in. And that provision shall +be made for such labouring persons according to their labour, so as +such provision doth not exceed three-fourth parts as much as any +other person would have paid for such labour. And in case they are +not employed and set to work, then such persons shall, until +materials or labour be provided for them, be maintained as impotent +poor; but so as such persons who shall hereafter enter themselves on +the poor's book, being able to labour, shall not quit the service of +the corporation, without leave, for the space of six months. + +The Corporation are to provide materials and labour for all that can +work, and to make provision for them not exceeding three-fourth +parts as much as any other person would give for such labour. For +example, if another person would give one of these a shilling, the +Corporation ought to give but ninepence. And the reason is plain, +first, because the Corporation will be obliged to maintain them and +their families in all exigences, which others are not obliged to do, +and consequently they ought not to allow so much as others. +Secondly, in case any persons able to labour, shall come to the +Corporation, when their agents are not prepared with materials to +employ them, by this proposal they are to allow them full provision +as impotent poor, until they find them work, which is entirely in +favour of the poor. Thirdly, it is neither reasonable nor possible +for the Corporation to provide materials upon every occasion, for +such persons as shall be entered with them, unless they can be +secure of such persons to work up those materials; besides, without +this provision, all the labouring people of England will play fast +and loose between their employers and the Corporation, for as they +are disobliged by one, they will run to the other, and so neither +shall be sure of them. + +Sixthly, that no impotent poor shall be removed out of the parish +where they dwell, but upon notice in writing given to the +churchwardens or overseers of the said parish, to what place of +provision he or she is removed. + +It is judged the best method to provide for the impotent poor in +houses prepared for that purpose, where proper provision may be made +for several, with all necessaries of care and maintenance. So that +in some places one house will serve the impotent poor of several +parishes, in which case the parish ought to know where to resort, to +see if good provision be made for them. + +Seventhly, that in case provision be not made for the poor of each +parish, in manner as aforesaid (upon due notice given to the agents +of the Corporation) the said parish may order their poor to be +maintained, and deduct the sum by them expended out of the next +payments to be made to the said corporation by the said parish. + +In case any accident happens in a parish, either by sickness, fall, +casualty of fire, or other ways; and that the agent of the +Corporation is not present to provide for them, or having notice +doth not immediately do it, the parish may do it, and deduct so much +out of the next payment; but there must be provision made for the +notice, and in what time the Corporation shall provide for them. + +Eighthly, that the said Corporation shall have and receive for the +said one-and-twenty years, that is to say, from every parish yearly, +so much as such parish paid in any one year, to be computed by a +medium of seven years; namely, from the 25th of March, 1690, to the +25th of March 1697, and to be paid half-yearly; and besides, shall +receive the benefit of the revenues of all donations given to any +parish, or which shall be given during the said term, and all +forfeitures which the law gives to the use of the poor; and to all +other sums which were usually collected by the parish, for the +maintenance of the poor. + +Whatever was raised for or applied to the use of the poor, ought to +be paid over to the Corporation; and where there are any donations +for maintaining the poor, it will answer the design of the donor, by +reason there will be better provision for the maintenance of the +poor than ever; and if that maintenance be so good, as to induce +further charities, no doubt the Corporation ought to be entitled to +them. But there are two objections to this article; first that to +make a medium by a time of war is unreasonable. Secondly, to +continue the whole tax for one-and-twenty years, does not seem to +give any benefit to the kingdom in that time. To the first, it is +true, we have a peace, but trade is lower now than at any time +during the war, and the charge of the poor greater; and when trade +will mend is very uncertain. To the second, it is very plain, that +although the charge may be the same to a parish in the total, yet it +will be less to particular persons, because those who before +received alms, will now be enabled to be contributors; but besides, +the turning so many hundred thousand pounds a year (which in a +manner have hitherto been applied only to support idleness) into +industry; and the employing so many other idle vagrants and sturdy +beggars, with the product of their labour, will altogether be a +present benefit to the lands of England, as well in the rents as in +the value; and further the accidental charities in the streets and +at doors, is, by a very modest computation, over and above the poor +rates, at least 300,000 pounds per annum, which will be entirely +saved by this proposal, and the persons set at work; which is a +further consideration for its being well received, since the +Corporation are not allowed anything for this service. + +The greater the encouragement is, the better the work will be +performed; and it will become the wisdom of the parliament in what +they do, to make it effectual; for should such an undertaking as +this prove ineffectual, instead of remedying, it will increase the +mischief. + +Ninthly, that all the laws made for the provision of the poor, and +for punishing idle vagrant persons, be repealed, and one law made to +continue such parts as are found useful, and to add such other +restrictions, penalties, and provisions, as may effectually attain +the end of this great work. + +The laws hereunto relating are numerous, but the judgment and +opinions given upon them are so various and contradictory, and +differ so in sundry places, as to be inconsistent with any one +general scheme of management. + +Tenthly, that proper persons be appointed in every county to +determine all matters and differences which may arise between the +corporation and the respective parishes. + +To prevent any ill usage, neglect or cruelty, it will be necessary +to make provision that the poor may tender their complaints to +officers of the parish; and that those officers having examined the +same, and not finding redress, may apply to persons to be appointed +in each county and each city for that purpose, who may be called +supervisors of the poor, and may have allowance made them for their +trouble; and their business may be to examine the truth of such +complaints; and in case either the parish or corporation judge +themselves aggrieved by the determination of the said supervisors, +provision may be made that an appeal lie to the quarter sessions. + +Eleventhly, that the corporation be obliged to provide for all +public beggars, and to put the laws into execution against public +beggars and idle vagrant persons. + +Such of the public beggars as can work must be employed, the rest to +be maintained as impotent poor, but the laws to be severely put in +execution against those who shall ask any public alms. + +This proposal, which in most parts of it seems to be very maturely +weighed, may be a foundation for those to build upon who have a +public spirit large enough to embrace such a noble undertaking. + +But the common obstruction to anything of this nature is a malignant +temper in some who will not let a public work go on if private +persons are to be gainers by it. When they are to get themselves, +they abandon all sense of virtue; but are clothed in her whitest +robe when they smell profit coming to another, masking themselves +with a false zeal to the commonwealth, where their own turn is not +to be served. It were better, indeed, that men would serve their +country for the praise and honour that follow good actions, but this +is not to be expected in a nation at least leaning towards +corruption, and in such an age it is as much as we can hope for if +the prospect of some honest gain invites people to do the public +faithful service. For which reason, in any undertaking where it can +be made apparent that a great benefit will accrue to the +commonwealth in general, we ought not to have an evil eye upon what +fair advantages particular men may thereby expect to reap, still +taking care to keep their appetite of getting within moderate +bounds, laying all just and reasonable restraints upon it, and +making due provision that they may not wrong or oppress their fellow +subjects. + +It is not to be denied, but that if fewer hands were suffered to +remain idle, and if the poor had full employment, it would greatly +tend to the common welfare, and contribute much towards adding every +year to the general stock of England. + +Among the methods that we have here proposed of employing the poor, +and making the whole body of the people useful to the public, we +think it our duty to mind those who consider the common welfare of +looking with a compassionate eye into the prisons of this kingdom, +where many thousands consume their time in vice and idleness, +wasting the remainder of their fortunes, or lavishing the substance +of their creditors, eating bread and doing no work, which is +contrary to good order, and pernicious to the commonwealth. + +We cannot therefore but recommend the thoughts of some good bill +that may effectually put an end to this mischief so scandalous in a +trading country, which should let no hands remain useless. + +It is not at all difficult to contrive such a bill as may relieve +and release the debtor, and yet preserve to his creditors all their +fair, just, and honest rights and interest. + +And so we have in this matter endeavoured to show that to preserve +and increase the people, and to make their numbers useful, are +methods conducing to make us gainers in the balance of trade. + + + + +*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK, MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETIC *** + +This file should be named mkpa10.txt or mkpa10.zip +Corrected EDITIONS of our eBooks get a new NUMBER, mkpa11.txt +VERSIONS based on separate sources get new LETTER, mkpa10a.txt + +Project Gutenberg eBooks are often created from several printed +editions, all of which are confirmed as Public Domain in the US +unless a copyright notice is included. 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After education at the Romsey Grammar +School, he continued his studies at Caen in Normandy. There he +supported himself by a little trade while learning French, and advancing +his knowledge of Greek, Latin, Mathematics, and much else that belonged +to his idea of a liberal education. His idea was large. +He came back to England, and had for a short time a place in the Navy; +but at the age of twenty he went abroad again, and was away three years, +studying actively at Utrecht, Leyden, and Amsterdam, and also in Paris. +In Paris he assisted Thomas Hobbes in drawing diagrams for his treatise +on optics. At the age of twenty-four Petty took out a patent for +the invention of a copying machine. It was described in a folio +pamphlet “On Double Writing.” That was in 1647, in +Civil War time, and although Petty followed Hobbes in his studies, he +did not share the philosopher’s political opinions, but held with +the Parliament. In 1648 he added to his former pamphlet a “Declaration +concerning the newly invented Art of Double Writing.”<br> +<br> +Samuel Hartlib, the large-hearted Pole, who in those days spent his +worldly means in England for the advancement of agriculture and of education, +and other aids to the well-being of a nation, had caused Milton to write +his letter on education, as has been shown in the Introduction to the +hundred and twenty-first volume of this Library, which contains that +Letter together with Milton’s Areopagitica. Young Petty’s +first published writing was a Letter to Hartlib on Education, entitled +“The Advice of W. P. to Mr. Samuel Hartlib for the Advancement +of some Particular Parts of Learning.” This appeared in +1648, when Petty’s age was twenty-five, and its aim was to suggest +a wider view of the whole field of education than had been possible +in the Middle Ages, of which schools and colleges were then preserving +the traditions, as they do still here and there to some extent. +This pamphlet has been reprinted in the sixth volume of the “Harleian +Miscellany.” William Petty wished the training of the young +to be in several respects more practical.<br> +<br> +His own activity of mind caused him to settle at Oxford, where he taught +anatomy and chemistry, which he had been studying abroad. He had +read with Hobbes the writings of Vesalius, the great founder of modern +practical anatomy. In 1649 William Petty graduated at Oxford as +Doctor of Medicine, obtained a fellowship at Brasenose, and practised. +In 1650 he surprised the public by restoring the action of the lungs +in a woman who had been hanged for infanticide, and so restoring her +to life.<br> +<br> +Dr. Petty now took his place at Oxford among the energetic men of science +who had been inspired by the teaching of Francis Bacon to seek knowledge +by direct experiment, and to value knowledge above all things for its +power of advancing the welfare of man. The headquarters of these +workers were at Oxford, and in London at Gresham College.<br> +<br> +In 1650 Petty was made Professor of Anatomy at Oxford, and it is a characteristic +illustration of his great activity of mind that he was at the same time +Professor of Music at Gresham College. Music had then a high place +in the Seven Sciences, as that use of regulated numbers which expressed +the harmonies of the created world. The Seven Sciences were divided +into three of the Trivium, and four of the Quadrivium. The three +of the Trivium concerned the use of speech; they were Grammar, Rhetoric, +and Logic. The four of the Quadrivium concerned number and measure; +they were Arithmetic, Geometry, Music; and Astronomy, which led up straight +to God. Advance to Music might be represented in the student’s +mind by his reaching to a sense of the harmonious relation of all his +studies, which, so to speak, lived in his mind as a single well-proportioned +thought.<br> +<br> +In 1652 Dr. Petty was sent to Ireland as physician to the army of the +Commonwealth. While there his active mind observed that the Survey +on which the Government had based its distribution of fortified lands +to the soldiers had been “most inefficiently and absurdly managed.” +He obtained the commission to make a fresh Survey, which he completed +accurately in thirteen months, and by which he obtained in payments +from the Government and from other persons interested ten thousand pounds. +By investing this in the purchase of soldiers’ claims, he secured +for himself an Irish estate of fifty thousand acres in the county of +Kerry, opened upon it mines and quarries, developed trade in timber, +and set up a fishery. John Evelyn said of him “that he had +never known such another genius, and that if Evelyn were a prince he +would make Petty his second councillor at least.” Henry +Cromwell as Lord Deputy in Ireland made Petty his secretary.<br> +<br> +Petty’s Maps were printed in 1685, two years before his death, +as “Hiberniæ Delineatio quoad hactenus licuit perfectissima;” +a collection of thirty-six maps, with a portrait of Sir William Petty, +a work answering to its description as the most perfect delineation +of Ireland that had up to that time been obtained. There is a +coloured copy of Petty’s maps in the British Museum, and also +an uncoloured copy, with the first five maps varying from those in the +coloured copy, and giving a General Map of Ireland, followed by Maps +of Leinster, Munster, Ulster, and Connaught. There was afterwards +published in duodecimo, without date, “A Geographical Description +of ye Kingdom of Ireland, collected from ye actual Survey made by Sir +William Petty, corrected and amended, engraven and published by Fra. +Lamb.” This volume gives as its contents, “one general +mapp, four provincial mapps, and thirty-two county mapps; to which is +added a mapp of Great Brittaine and Ireland, together with an Index +of the whole.”<br> +<br> +At the Restoration William Petty accepted the inevitable change, and +continued his service to the country. He was knighted by Charles +the Second, and appointed in 1661 Inspector-General of Ireland. +He entered Parliament. He was one of the first founders of the +Royal Society, established at the beginning of the reign of Charles +the Second; and the outcome of these scientific studies along the line +marked out by Francis Bacon, which had been actively pursued in Oxford +and at Gresham College. In 1663 he applied his ingenuity to the +invention of a swift double-bottomed ship, that made one or two passages +between England and Ireland, but was then lost in a storm.<br> +<br> +In 1670 Sir William Petty established on his lands at Kerry the English +settlement at the head of the bay of Kenmare. The building of +forty-two houses for the English settlers first laid the foundations +of the present town of Kenmare. “The population,” +writes Lord Macaulay, “amounted to a hundred and eighty. +The land round the town was well cultivated. The cattle were numerous. +Two small barks were employed in fishing and trading along the coast. +The supply of herrings, pilchards, mackerel, and salmon, was plentiful, +and would have been still more plentiful had not the beach been, in +the finest part of the year, covered by multitudes of seals, which preyed +on the fish of the bay. Yet the seal was not an unwelcome visitor: +his fur was valuable; and his oil supplied light through the long nights +of winter. An attempt was made with great success to set up ironworks. +It was not yet the practice to employ coal for the purpose of smelting; +and the manufacturers of Kent and Sussex had much difficulty in procuring +timber at a reasonable price. The neighbourhood of Kenmare was +then richly wooded; and Petty found it a gainful speculation to send +ore thither.” He looked also for profit from the variegated +marbles of adjacent islands. Distant two days’ journey over +the mountains from the nearest English, Petty’s English settlement +of Kenmare withstood all surrounding dangers, and in 1688, a year after +its founder’s death, defended itself successfully against a fierce +and general attack.<br> +<br> +Sir William Petty died at London, on the 16th of December, 1687, and +was buried in his native town of Romsey. He had added to his great +wealth by marriage, and was the founder of the family in which another +Sir William Petty became Earl of Shelburne and first Marquis of Lansdowne. +The son of that first Marquis was Henry third Marquis of Lansdowne, +who took a conspicuous part in our political history during the present +century.<br> +<br> +Sir William Petty’s survey of the land in Ireland, called the +Down Survey, because its details were set down in maps, remains the +legal record of the title on which half the land in Ireland is held. +The original maps are preserved in the Public Record Office at Dublin, +and many of Petty’s MSS. are in the Bodleian Library at Oxford.<br> +<br> +He published in 1662 and 1685 a “Treatise of Taxes and Contributions, +the same being frequently to the present state and affairs of Ireland,” +of which his view started from the general opinion that men should contribute +to the public charge according to their interest in the public peace +- that is, according to their riches. “Now, he said, “there +are two sorts of riches - one actual, and the other potential. +A man is actually and truly rich according to what he eateth, drinketh, +weareth, or in any other way really and actually enjoyeth. Others +are but potentially and imaginatively rich, who though they have power +over much, make little use of it, these being rather stewards and exchangers +for the other sort than owners for themselves.” He then +showed how he considered that “every man ought to contribute according +to what he taketh to himself, and actually enjoyeth.”<br> +<br> +In 1674 Sir William Petty published a paper on “Duplicate Proportion,” +and in 1679 he published in Latin a “Colloquy of David with his +Own Soul.” In 1682 he published a tract called “Quantulumcunque, +concerning Money;” and “England’s Guide to Industry,” +in 1686. From 1682 to 1687, the year of his death, Sir William +Petty was drawing great attention to the “Essays on Political +Arithmetic,” which are here reprinted. There was the little +“Essay in Political Arithmetic, concerning the People, Housings, +Hospitals of London and Paris;” published in 1682, again in French +in 1686, and again in English in 1687. There was the little “Essay +concerning the Multiplication of Mankind, together with an Essay on +the Growth of London,” published in 1682, and again in 1683 and +1686. There was in 1683, “Another Essay in Political Arithmetic +concerning the growth of the City of London.” There were +“Farther Considerations on the Dublin Bills of Mortality,” +in 1686; and “Five Essays on Political Arithmetic” (in French +and English), “Observations upon the Cities of London and Rome,” +in 1687, the last year of Sir William Petty’s life. Other +writings of his were published in his lifetime, or have been published +since his death. He was in the study of political economy one +of the most ingenious and practical thinkers before the days of Adam +Smith.<br> +<br> +But the interest of those “Essays in Political Arithmetic” +lies chiefly in the facts presented by so trustworthy an authority. +London had become in the time of the Stuarts the most populous city +in Europe, if not in the world. This Sir William Petty sought +to prove against the doubts of foreign and other critics, and his “Political +Arithmetic” was an endeavour to determine the relative strength +in population of the chief cities of England, France, and Holland. +His application of arithmetic in the first of these essays to a census +of the population at the Day of Judgment he himself spoke of slightingly. +It is a curious example of a bygone form of theological discussion. +But his tables and his reasonings upon them grow in interest as he attempts +his numbering of the people in the reign of James II. by collecting +facts upon which his deductions might be founded. The references +to the deaths by Plague in London before the cleansing of the town by +the great fire of 1666 are very suggestive; and in one passage there +is incidental note of delay in the coming of the Plague then due, without +reckoning the change made in conditions of health by the rebuilding. +Nobody knew, and no one even now can calculate, how many lives the Fire +of London saved.<br> +<br> +There was in Petty’s time no direct numbering of the people. +The first census in this country was not until more than a hundred years +after Sir William Petty’s death, although he points out in these +essays how easily it could be established, and what useful information +it would give. There was a census taken at Rome 566 years before +Christ. But the first census in Great Britain was taken in 1801, +under provision of an Act passed on the last day of the year 1800, to +secure a numbering of the population every ten years. Ireland +was not included in the return; the first census in Ireland was not +until the year 1813.<br> +<br> +Sir William Petty had to base his calculations partly upon the Bills +of Mortality, which had been imperfectly begun under Elizabeth, but +fell into disuse, and were revived, as a weekly record of the number +of deaths, beginning on the 29th of October, 1603; notices of diseases +first appeared in them in 1629. The weekly bills were published +every Thursday, and any householder could have them supplied to him +for four shillings a year. These essays will show how inferences +as to the number of the living were drawn from the number of the dead. +And even now our Political Arithmetic depends too much upon rough calculations +made from the death register. It is seven years since the last +census; we have lost count of the changes in our population to a very +great extent, and have to wait three years before our reckoning can +be made sure. The interval should be reduced to five years.<br> +<br> +Another of Sir William Petty’s helps in the arithmetic of population +was the Chimney Tax, a revival of the old fumage or hearth-money - smoke +farthings, as the people called them - once paid, according to Domesday +Book, for every chimney in a house. Charles the Second had set +up a chimney tax in the year 1662; the statistics of the collection +were at the service of Sir William Petty. The tax outlived him +but two years. It was promptly abolished in the first year of +William and Mary.<br> +<br> +The interest taken at home and abroad in these calculations of Political +Arithmetic set other men calculating, and reasoning upon their calculations. +The next worker in that direction was Gregory King, Lancaster Herald, +whose calculations immediately followed those of Sir William Petty. +Sir William Petty’s essays extended from 1682 until his death +in 1687. Gregory King’s estimates were made in 1689. +They were a study of the number population and distribution of wealth +among us at the time of the English Revolution, and the unpublished +results were first printed in a chapter on “The People of England,” +which formed part a volume published in 1699 as “An Essay upon +the Probable Methods of making a People Gainers in the Balance of Trade, +by the Author of the Essay on Ways and Means.” The volume +was written by a member of Parliament in the days of William and Mary, +who desired to apply principles of political economy to the maintenance +of English wealth and liberty. It has been wrongly scribed to +Defoe; and its suggestion of the plan a trading Corporation for solution +of the whole problem of relief to the poor who cannot work, and relief +from the poor who can, might indeed make another chapter in Defoe’s +“Essay on Projects.” The chapter, which gives the +Political Arithmetic of Gregory King, with such comment and suggestions +as might be expected from a liberal supporter of the Revolution, and +with this suggestion of a Corporation, is in itself a complete essay. +It follows naturally upon the Political Arithmetic of Sir William Petty +in close sequence of time, and in carrying a like method of inquiry +forward until it reaches a few more conclusions. I have, therefore, +added it to this volume. It seems, at any rate, to show how Sir +William Petty’s books, of which the very small size grieved the +stationer, had a large influence on other minds; his figures bearing +fruit in a new search for facts and careful reasoning on the condition +of the country at one of the most critical times in English history.<br> +<br> +H. M.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +THE STATIONER TO THE READER<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +The ensuing essay concerning the growth of the city of London was entitled +“Another Essay,” intimating that some other essay had preceded +it, which was not to be found. I having been much importuned for +that precedent essay, have found that the same was about the growth, +increase, and multiplication of mankind, which subject should in order +of nature precede that of the growth of the city of London, but am not +able to procure the essay itself, only I have obtained from a gentleman, +who sometimes corresponded with Sir W. Petty, an extract of a letter +from Sir William to him, which I verily believe containeth the scope +thereof; wherefore, I must desire the reader to be content therewith, +till more can be had.<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>The extract of a letter concerning the scope of an essay intended +to precede another essay concerning the growth of the City of London</i>,<i> +&c. An Essay in Political Arithmetic</i>,<i> concerning the +value and increase of People and Colonies.<br> +<br> +</i>The scope of this essay is concerning people and colonies, and to +make way for “Another Essay” concerning the growth of the +city of London. I desire in this first essay to give the world +some light concerning the numbers of people in England, with Wales, +and in Ireland; as also of the number of houses and families wherein +they live, and of acres they occupy.<br> +<br> +2. How many live upon their lands, how many upon their personal +estates and commerce, and how many upon art, and labour; how many upon +alms, how many upon offices and public employments, and how many as +cheats and thieves; how many are impotents, children, and decrepit old +men.<br> +<br> +3. How many upon the poll-taxes in England, do pay extraordinary +rates, and how many at the level.<br> +<br> +4. How many men and women are prolific, and how many of each are +married or unmarried.<br> +<br> +5. What the value of people are in England, and what in Ireland +at a medium, both as members of the Church or Commonwealth, or as slaves +and servants to one another; with a method how to estimate the same, +in any other country or colony.<br> +<br> +6. How to compute the value of land in colonies, in comparison +to England and Ireland.<br> +<br> +7. How 10,000 people in a colony may be planted to the best advantage.<br> +<br> +8. A conjecture in what number of years England and Ireland may +be fully peopled, as also all America, and lastly the whole habitable +earth.<br> +<br> +9. What spot of the earth’s globe were fittest for a general +and universal emporium, whereby all the people thereof may best enjoy +one another’s labours and commodities.<br> +<br> +10. Whether the speedy peopling of the earth would make<br> +<br> +(1) For the good of mankind.<br> +<br> +(2) To fulfil the revealed will of God.<br> +<br> +(3) To what prince or State the same would be most advantageous.<br> +<br> +11. An exhortation to all thinking men to solve the Scriptures +and other good histories, concerning the number of people in all ages +of the world, in the great cities thereof, and elsewhere.<br> +<br> +12. An appendix concerning the different number of sea-fish and +wild-fowl at the end of every thousand years since Noah’s Flood.<br> +<br> +13. An hypothesis of the use of those spaces (of about 8,000 miles +through) within the globe of our earth, supposing a shell of 150 miles +thick.<br> +<br> +14. What may be the meaning of glorified bodies, in case the place +of the blessed shall be without the convex of the orb of the fixed stars, +if that the whole system of the world was made for the use of our earth’s +men.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +THE PRINCIPAL POINTS OF THIS DISCOURSE<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +1. That London doubles in forty years, and all England in three +hundred and sixty years.<br> +<br> +2. That there be, A.D. 1682, about 670,000 souls in London, and +about 7,400,000 in all England and Wales, and about 28,000,000 of acres +of profitable land.<br> +<br> +3. That the periods of doubling the people are found to be, in +all degrees, from between ten to twelve hundred years.<br> +<br> +4. That the growth of London must stop of itself before the year +1800.<br> +<br> +5. A table helping to understand the Scriptures, concerning the +number of people mentioned in them.<br> +<br> +6. That the world will be fully peopled within the next two thousand +years.<br> +<br> +7. Twelve ways whereby to try any proposal pretended for the public +good.<br> +<br> +8. How the city of London may be made (morally speaking) invincible.<br> +<br> +9. A help to uniformity in religion.<br> +<br> +10. That it is possible to increase mankind by generation four +times more than at present.<br> +<br> +11. The plagues of London is the chief impediment and objection +against the growth of the city.<br> +<br> +12. That an exact account of the people is necessary in this matter.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +OF THE GROWTH OF THE CITY OF LONDON: <i>And of the Measures</i>,<i> +Periods</i>,<i> Causes</i>,<i> and Consequences thereof<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>By the city of London we mean the housing within the walls of the +old city, with the liberties thereof, Westminster, the Borough of Southwark, +and so much of the built ground in Middlesex and Surrey, whose houses +are contiguous unto, or within call of those aforementioned. Or +else we mean the housing which stand upon the ninety-seven parishes +within the walls of London; upon the sixteen parishes next without them; +the six parishes of Westminster, and the fourteen out-parishes in Middlesex +and Surrey, contiguous to the former, all which, 133 parishes, are comprehended +within the weekly bills of mortality.<br> +<br> +The growth of this city is measured. (1) By the quantity of ground, +or number of acres upon which it stands. (2) By the number of +houses, as the same appears by the hearth-books and late maps. (3) By +the cubical content of the said housing. (4) By the flooring of +the same. (5) By the number of days’ work, or charge of +building the said houses. (6) By the value of the said houses, +according to their yearly rent, and number of years’ purchase. +(7) By the number of inhabitants; according to which latter sense only +we make our computations in this essay.<br> +<br> +Till a better rule can be obtained, we conceive that the proportion +of the people may be sufficiently measured by the proportion of the +burials in such years as were neither remarkable for extraordinary healthfulness +or sickliness.<br> +<br> +That the city hath increased in this latter sense appears from the bills +of mortality represented in the two following tables, viz., one whereof +is a continuation for eighteen years, ending 1682, of that table which +was published in the 117th page of the book of the observations upon +the London bills of mortality, printed in the year 1676. The other +showeth what number of people died at a medium of two years, indifferently +taken, at about twenty years’ distance from each other.<br> +<br> +The first of the said two tables.<br> +<br> +<pre>A.D. 97 16 Out Buried Besides of Christened + Parishes Parishes Parishes in all the Plague +1665 5,320 12,463 10,925 28,708 68,596 9,967 +1666 1,689 3,969 5,082 10,740 1,998 8,997 +1667 761 6,405 8,641 15,807 35 10,938 +1668 796 6,865 9,603 17,267 14 11,633 +1669 1,323 7,500 10,440 19,263 3 12,335 +1670 1,890 7,808 10,500 20,198 11,997 +1671 1,723 5,938 8,063 15,724 5 12,510 +1672 2,237 6,788 9,200 18,225 5 12,593 +1673 2,307 6,302 8,890 17,499 5 11,895 +1674 2,801 7,522 10,875 21,198 3 11,851 +1675 2,555 5,986 8,702 17,243 1 11,775 +1676 2,756 6,508 9,466 18,730 2 12,399 +1677 2,817 6,632 9,616 19,065 2 12,626 +1678 3,060 6,705 10,908 20,673 5 12,601 +1679 3,074 7,481 11,173 21,728 2 12,288 +1680 3,076 7,066 10,911 21,053 12,747 +1681 3,669 8,136 12,166 23,971 13,355 +1682 2,975 7,009 10,707 20,691 12,653 + +</pre>According to which latter table there died as follows:-<br> +<br> +<br> +THE LATTER OF THE SAID TWO TABLES<br> +<br> +<i>There died in London at the medium between the years -<br> +<br> +</i><pre>1604 and 1605 . . . 5,135. A. +1621 and 1622 . . . 8,527. B. +1641 and 1642 . . . 11,883. C. +1661 and 1662 . . . 15,148. D. +1681 and 1682 . . . 22,331. E. + + +</pre>Wherein observe, that the number C is double to A and 806 over. +That D is double to B within 1,906. That C and D is double to +A and B within 293. That E is double to C within 1,435. +That D and E is double to B and C within 3,341; and that C and D and +E are double to A and B and C within 1,736; and that E is above quadruple +to A. All which differences (every way considered) do allow the +doubling of the people of London in 40 years to be a sufficient estimate +thereof in round numbers, and without the trouble of fractions. +We also say that 669,930 is near the number of people now in London, +because the burials are 22,331, which, multiplied by 30 (one dying yearly +out of 30, as appears in the 94th page of the aforementioned observations), +maketh the said number; and because there are 84,000 tenanted houses +(as we are credibly informed), which, at 8 in each, makes 672,000 souls; +the said two accounts differing inconsiderably from each other.<br> +<br> +We have thus pretty well found out in what number of years (viz., in +about 40) that the city of London hath doubled, and the present number +of inhabitants to be about 670,000. We must now also endeavour +the same for the whole territory of England and Wales. In order +whereunto, we first say that the assessment of London is about an eleventh +part of the whole territory, and, therefore, that the people of the +whole may well be eleven times that of London, viz., about 7,369,000 +souls; with which account that of the poll-money, hearth-money, and +the bishop’s late numbering of the communicants, do pretty well +agree; wherefore, although the said number of 7,369,000 be not (as it +cannot be) a demonstrated truth, yet it will serve for a good supposition, +which is as much as we want at present.<br> +<br> +As for the time in which the people double, it is yet more hard to be +found. For we have good experience (in the said page 94 of the +aforementioned observations) that in the country but 1 of 50 die per +annum; and by other late accounts, that there have been sometimes but +24 births for 23 burials. The which two points, if they were universally +and constantly true, there would be colour enough to say that the people +doubled but in about 1,200 years. As, for example, suppose there +be 600 people, of which let a fiftieth part die per annum, then there +shall die 12 per annum; and if the births be as 24 to 23, then the increase +of the people shall be somewhat above half a man per annum, and consequently +the supposed number of 600 cannot be doubled but in 1,126 years, which, +to reckon in round numbers, and for that the aforementioned fractions +were not exact, we had rather call 1,200.<br> +<br> +There are also other good observations, that even in the country one +in about 30 or 32 per annum hath died, and that there have been five +births for four burials. Now, according to this doctrine, 20 will +die per annum out of the above 600, and 25 will be born, so as the increase +will be five, which is a hundred and twentieth part of the said 600. +So as we have two fair computations, differing from each other as one +to ten; and there are also several other good observations for other +measures.<br> +<br> +I might here insert, that although the births in this last computation +be 25 of 600, or a twenty-fourth part of the people, yet that in natural +possibility they may be near thrice as many, and near 75. For +that by some late observations, the teeming females between 15 and 44 +are about 180 of the said 600, and the males of between 18 and 59 are +about 180 also, and that every teeming woman can bear a child once in +two years; from all which it is plain that the births may be 90 (and +abating 15 for sickness, young abortions, and natural barrenness), there +may remain 75 births, which is an eighth of the people, which by some +observations we have found to be but a two-and-thirtieth part, or but +a quarter of what is thus shown to be naturally possible. Now, +according to this reckoning, if the births may be 75 of 600, and the +burials but 15, then the annual increase of the people will be 60; and +so the said 600 people may double in ten years, which differs yet more +from 1,200 above-mentioned. Now, to get out of this difficulty, +and to temper those vast disagreements, I took the medium of 50 and +30 dying per annum, and pitched upon 40; and I also took the medium +between 24 births and 23 burials, and 5 births for 4 burials, viz., +allowing about 10 births for 9 burials; upon which supposition there +must die 15 per annum out of the above-mentioned 600, and the births +must be 16 and two-thirds, and the increase one and two-thirds, or five-thirds +of a man, which number, compared with 1,800 thirds, or 600 men, gives +360 years for the time of doubling (including some allowance for wars, +plagues, and famines, the effects thereof), though they be terrible +at the times and places where they happen, yet in a period of 360 years +is no great matter in the whole nation. For the plagues of England +in twenty years have carried away scarce an eightieth part of the people +of the whole nation; and the late ten years’ civil wars +(the like whereof hath not been in several ages before) did not take +away above a fortieth part of the whole people.<br> +<br> +According to which account or measure of doubling, if there be now in +England and Wales 7,400,000 people, there were about 5,526,000 in the +beginning of Queen Elizabeth’s reign, A.D. 1560, and about 2,000,000 +at the Norman Conquest, of which consult the Doomsday Book, and my Lord +Hale’s “Origination of Mankind.”<br> +<br> +Memorandum. - That if the people double in 360 years, that the present +320,000,000 computed by some learned men (from the measures of all the +nations of the world, their degrees of being peopled, and good accounts +of the people in several of them) to be now upon the face of the earth, +will within the next 2,000 years so increase as to give one head for +every two acres of land in the habitable part of the earth. And +then, according to the prediction of the Scriptures, there must be wars, +and great slaughter, &c.<br> +<br> +Wherefore, as an expedient against the above-mentioned difference between +10 and 1,200 years, we do for the present, and in this country, admit +of 360 years to be the time wherein the people of England do double, +according to the present laws and practice of marriages.<br> +<br> +Now, if the city double its people in 40 years, and the present number +be 670,000, and if the whole territory be 7,400,000, and double in 360 +years, as aforesaid, then by the underwritten table it appears that +A.D. 1840 the people of the city will be 10,718,880, and those of the +whole country but 10,917,389, which is but inconsiderably more. +Wherefore it is certain and necessary that the growth of the city must +stop before the said year 1840, and will be at its utmost height in +the next preceding period, A.D. 1800, when the number of the city will +be eight times its present number, 5,359,000. And when (besides +the said number) there will be 4,466,000 to perform the tillage, pasturage, +and other rural works necessary to be done without the said city, as +by the following table, viz.:-<br> +<br> +<br> + <pre>A.D. Burials People in People in + London England + 1565 2,568 77,040 5,526,929 +As in the } 1605 5,135 +former table } 1642 11,883 + } 1682 22,331 669,930 7,369,230 + 1722 44,662 + 1762 89,324 + 1802 178,648 5,359,440 9,825,650 + 1842 357,296 10,718,889 10,917,389 + + +</pre>Now, when the people of London shall come to be so near the people +of all England, then it follows that the growth of London must stop +before the said year 1842, as aforesaid, and must be at its greatest +height A.D. 1800, when it will be eight times more than now, with above +4,000,000 for the service of the country and ports, as aforesaid.<br> +<br> +Of the aforementioned vast difference between 10 years and 1,200 years +for doubling the people, we make this use, viz.:- To justify the Scriptures +and all other good histories concerning the number of the people in +ancient time. For supposing the eight persons who came out of +the Ark, increased by a progressive doubling in every ten years, might +grow in the first 100 years after the Flood from 8 to 8,000, and that +in 350 years after the Flood (whereabouts Noah died) to 1,000,000 and +by this time, 1682, to 320,000,000 (which by rational conjecture are +thought to be now in the world), it will not be hard to compute how, +in the intermediate years, the growths may be made, according to what +is set down in the following table, wherein making the doubling to be +ten years at first, and within 1,200 years at last, we take a discretionary +liberty, but justifiable by observations and the Scriptures for the +rest, which table we leave to be corrected by historians who know the +bigness of ancient cities, armies, and colonies in the respective ages +of the world, in the meantime affirming that without such difference +in the measures and periods for doubling (the extremes whereof we have +demonstrated to be real and true) it is impossible to solve what is +written in the Holy Scriptures and other authentic books. For +if we pitch upon any one number throughout for this purpose, 150 years +is the fittest of all round numbers; according to which there would +have been but 512 souls in the whole world in Moses’ time (being +800 years after the Flood), when 603,000 Israelites of above twenty +years old (besides those of other ages, tribes, and nations) were found +upon an exact survey appointed by God, whereas our table makes 12,000,000. +And there would have been about 8,000 in David’s time, when were +found 1,100,000, of above twenty years old (besides others, as aforesaid) +in Israel, upon the survey instigated by Satan, whereas our table makes +32,000,000. And there would have been but a quarter of a million +about the birth of Christ, or Augustus’s time, when Rome and the +Roman Empire were so great, whereas our table makes 100,000,000. +Where note, that the Israelites in about 500 years, between their coming +out of Egypt to David’s reign, increased from 603,000 to 1,100,000.<br> +<br> +On the other hand, if we pitch upon a less number, as 100 years, the +world would have been over-peopled 700 years since. Wherefore +no one number will solve the phenomena, and therefore we have supposed +several, in order to make the following table, which we again desire +historians to correct, according to what they find in antiquity concerning +the number of the people in each age and country of the world.<br> +<br> +We did (not long since) assist a worthy divine, writing against some +sceptics, who would have baffled our belief of the resurrection, by +saying, that the whole globe of the earth could not furnish matter enough +for all the bodies that must rise at the last day, much less would the +surface of the earth furnish footing for so vast a number; whereas we +did (by the method afore mentioned) assert the number of men now living, +and also of those that had died since the beginning of the world, and +did withal show, that half the island of Ireland would afford them all, +not only footing to stand upon, but graves to lie down in, for that +whole number; and that two mountains in that country were as weighty +as all the bodies that had ever been from the beginning of the world +to the year 1680, when this dispute happened. For which purpose +I have digressed from my intended purpose to insert this matter, intending +to prosecute this hint further upon some more proper occasion.<br> +<br> +<br> +A TABLE SHOWING HOW THE PEOPLE MIGHT HAVE DOUBLED IN THE SEVERAL AGES +OF THE WORLD.<br> +<br> + <pre>A.D., after the Flood. +Periods of { 1 8 persons. +doubling { 10 16 + { 20 32 + { 30 64 + { 40 128 + In 10 years { 50 256 + { 60 512 + { 70 1,024 + { 80 2,048 + { 90 4,096 + { 100 8,000 and more. + { 120 years after + In 20 years { the Flood. 16,000 + { 140 32,000 + { 170 64,000 + 30 { + { 200 128,000 + 40 240 256,000 + 50 290 512,000 + 60 350 1,000,000 and more. + 70 420 2,000,000 + 100 520 4,000,000 + 190 710 8,000,000 + 290 1,000 16,000,000 in Moses’ time. + 400 1,400 32,000,000 about David’s time. + 550 1,950 64,000,000 + 750 2,700 128,000,000 about the birth of Christ. + 1,000 3,700 256,000,000 + 300 { +In { 4,000 320,000,000 + 1,200 { + + +</pre>It is here to be noted, that in this table we have assigned a +different number of years for the time of doubling the people in the +several ages of the world, and might have done the same for the several +countries of the world, and therefore the said several periods assigned +to the whole world in the lump may well enough consist with the 360 +years especially assigned to England, between this day and the Norman +Conquest; and the said 360 years may well enough serve for a supposition +between this time and that of the world’s being fully peopled; +nor do we lay any stress upon one or the other in this disquisition +concerning the growth of the city of London.<br> +<br> +We have spoken of the growth of London, with the measures and periods +thereof; we come next to the causes and consequences of the same.<br> +<br> +The causes of its growth from 1642 to 1682 may be said to have been +as follows, viz.:- From 1642 to 1650, that men came out of the country +to London, to shelter themselves from the outrages of the Civil Wars +during that time; from 1650 to 1660, the royal party came to London +for their more private and inexpensive living; from 1660 to 1670, the +king’s friends and party came to receive his favours after his +happy restoration; from 1670 to 1680, the frequency of plots and parliaments +might bring extraordinary numbers to the city; but what reasons to assign +for the like increase from 1604 to 1642 I know not, unless I should +pick out some remarkable accident happening in each part of the said +period, and make that to be the cause of this increase (as vulgar people +make the cause of every man’s sickness to be what he did last +eat), wherefore, rather than so to say <i>quidlibet de quolibet</i>, +I had rather quit even what I have above said to be the cause of London’s +increase from 1642 to 1682, and put the whole upon some natural and +spontaneous benefits and advantages that men find by living in great +more than in small societies, and shall therefore seek for the antecedent +causes of this growth in the consequences of the like, considered in +greater characters and proportions.<br> +<br> +Now, whereas in arithmetic, out of two false positions the truth is +extracted, so I hope out of two extravagant contrary suppositions to +draw forth some solid and consistent conclusion, viz.:-<br> +<br> +The first of the said two suppositions is, that the city of London is +seven times bigger than now, and that the inhabitants of it are 4,690,000 +people, and that in all the other cities, ports, towns, and villages, +there are but 2,710,000 more.<br> +<br> +The other supposition is, that the city of London is but a seventh part +of its present bigness, and that the inhabitants of it are but 96,000, +and that the rest of the inhabitants (being 7,304,000) do cohabit thus: +104,000 of them in small cities and towns, and that the rest, being +7,200,000, do inhabit in houses not contiguous to one another, viz., +in 1,200,000 houses, having about twenty-four acres of ground belonging +to each of them, accounting about 28,000,000 of acres to be in the whole +territory of England, Wales, and the adjacent islands, which any man +that pleases may examine upon a good map.<br> +<br> +Now, the question is, in which of these two imaginary states would be +the most convenient, commodious, and comfortable livings?<br> +<br> +But this general question divides itself into the several questions, +relating to the following particulars, viz.:-<br> +<br> +1. For the defence of the kingdom against foreign powers.<br> +<br> +2. For preventing the intestine commotions of parties and factions.<br> +<br> +3. For peace and uniformity in religion.<br> +<br> +4. For the administration of justice.<br> +<br> +5. For the proportionably taxing of the people, and easy levying +the same.<br> +<br> +6. For gain by foreign commerce.<br> +<br> +7. For husbandry, manufacture, and for arts of delight and ornament.<br> +<br> +8. For lessening the fatigue of carriages and travelling.<br> +<br> +9. For preventing beggars and thieves.<br> +<br> +10. For the advancement and propagation of useful learning.<br> +<br> +11. For increasing the people by generation.<br> +<br> +12. For preventing the mischiefs of plagues and contagious. +And withal, which of the said two states is most practicable and natural, +for in these and the like particulars do lie the tests and touchstones +of all proposals that can be made for the public good.<br> +<br> +First, as to practicable, we say, that although our said extravagant +proposals are both in nature possible, yet it is not obvious to every +man to conceive how London, now seven times bigger than in the beginning +of Queen Elizabeth’s reign, should be seven times bigger than +now it is, and forty-nine times bigger than A.D. 1560. To which +I say, 1. That the present city of London stands upon less than +2,500 acres of ground, wherefore a city seven times as large may stand +upon 10,500 acres, which is about equivalent to a circle of four miles +and a half in diameter, and less than fifteen miles in circumference. +2. That a circle of ground of thirty-five miles semidiameter will +bear corn, garden-stuff, fruits, hay, and timber, for the 4,690,000 +inhabitants of the said city and circle, so as nothing of that kind +need be brought from above thirty-five miles distance from the said +city; for the number of acres within the said circle, reckoning two +acres sufficient to furnish bread and drink-corn for every head, and +two acres will furnish hay for every necessary horse; and that the trees +which may grow in the hedgerows of the fields within the said circle +may furnish timber for 600,000 houses. 3. That all live cattle +and great animals can bring themselves to the said city; and that fish +can be brought from the Land’s End and Berwick as easily as now. +4. Of coals there is no doubt: and for water, 20s. per family +(or £600,000 per annum in the whole) will serve this city, especially +with the help of the New River. But if by practicable be understood +that the present state may be suddenly changed into either of the two +above-mentioned proposals, I think it is not practicable. Wherefore +the true question is, unto or towards which of the said two extravagant +states it is best to bend the present state by degrees, viz., Whether +it be best to lessen or enlarge the present city? In order whereunto, +we inquire (as to the first question) which state is most defensible +against foreign powers, saying, that if the above-mentioned housing, +and a border of ground, of three-quarters of a mile broad, were encompassed +with a wall and ditch of twenty miles about (as strong as any in Europe, +which would cost but a million, or about a penny in the shilling of +the house-rent for one year) what foreign prince could bring an army +from beyond seas, able to beat - 1. Our sea-forces, and next with horse +harassed at sea, to resist all the fresh horse that England could make, +and then conquer above a million of men, well united, disciplined, and +guarded within such a wall, distant everywhere three-quarters of a mile +from the housing, to elude the granadoes and great shot of the enemy? +2. As to intestine parties and factions, I suppose that 4,690,000 +people united within this great city could easily govern half the said +number scattered without it, and that a few men in arms within the said +city and wall could also easily govern the rest unarmed, or armed in +such a manner as the Sovereign shall think fit. 3. As to uniformity +in religion, I conceive, that if St. Martin’s parish (may as it +doth) consist of about 40,000 souls, that this great city also may as +well be made but as one parish, with seven times 130 chapels, in which +might not only be an uniformity of common prayer, but in preaching also; +for that a thousand copies of one judiciously and authentically composed +sermon might be every week read in each of the said chapels without +any subsequent repetition of the same, as in the case of homilies. +Whereas in England (wherein are near 10,000 parishes, in each of which +upon Sundays, holy days, and other extraordinary occasions there should +be about 100 sermons annum, making about a million of sermons per annum +in the whole) it were a miracle, if a million of sermons composed by +so many men, and of so many minds and methods, should produce uniformity +upon the discomposed understandings of about 8,000,000 of hearers.<br> +<br> +4. As to the administration of justice. If in this great +city shall dwell the owners of all the lands, and other valuable things +in England; if within it shall be all the traders, and all the courts, +offices, records, juries, and witnesses; then it follows that justice +may be done with speed and ease.<br> +<br> +5. As to the equality and easy levying of taxes. It is too +certain that London hath at some time paid near half the excise of England, +and that the people pay thrice as much for the hearths in London as +those in the country, in proportion to the people of each, and that +the charge of collecting these duties have been about a sixth part of +the duty itself. Now in this great city the excise alone according +to the present laws would not only be double to the whole kingdom, but +also more equal. And the duty of hearths of the said city would +exceed the present proceed of the whole kingdom. And as for the +customs we mention them not at present.<br> +<br> +6. Whether more would be gained by foreign commerce? The +gain which England makes by lead, coals, the freight of shipping, &c., +may be the same, for aught I see, in both cases. But the gain +which is made by manufactures will be greater as the manufacture itself +is greater and better. For in so vast a city manufactures will +beget one another, and each manufacture will be divided into as many +parts as possible, whereby the work of each artisan will be simple and +easy. As, for example, in the making of a watch, if one man shall +make the wheels, another the spring, another shall engrave the dial-plate, +and another shall make the cases, then the watch will be better and +cheaper than if the whole work be put upon any one man. And we +also see that in towns, and in the streets of a great town, where all +the inhabitants are almost of one trade, the commodity peculiar to those +places is made better and cheaper than elsewhere. Moreover, when +all sorts of manufactures are made in one place, there every ship that +goeth forth can suddenly have its loading of so many several particulars +and species as the port whereunto she is bound can take off. Again, +when the several manufactures are made in one place, and shipped off +in another, the carriage, postage, and travelling charges, will enhance +the price of such manufacture, and lessen the gain upon foreign commerce. +And lastly, when the imported goods are spent in the port itself, where +they are landed, the carriage of the same into other places will create +no further charge upon such commodity; all which particulars tend to +the greater gain by foreign commerce.<br> +<br> +7. As for arts of delight and ornament. They are best promoted +by the greatest number of emulators. And it is more likely that +one ingenious curious man may rather be found out amongst 4,000,000 +than 400 persons. But as for husbandry, viz., tillage and pasturage, +I see no reason, but the second state (when each family is charged with +the culture of about twenty-four acres) will best promote the same.<br> +<br> +8. As for lessening the fatigue of carriage and travelling.<br> +<br> +The thing speaks for itself, for if all the men of business, and all +artisans, do live within five miles of each other, and if those who +live without the great city do spend only such commodities as grow where +they live, then the charge of carriage and travelling could be little.<br> +<br> +9. As to the preventing of beggars and thieves.<br> +<br> +I do not find how the differences of the said two states should make +much difference in this particular; for impotents (which are but one +in about 600) ought to be maintained by the rest. 2. Those who +are unable to work, through the evil education of their parents, ought +(for aught I know) to be maintained by their nearest kindred, as a just +punishment upon them. 3. And those who cannot find work (though +able and willing to perform it), by reason of the unequal application +of hands to lands, ought to be provided for by the magistrate and landlord +till that can be done; for there need be no beggars in countries where +there are many acres of unimproved improvable land to every head, as +there are in England. As for thieves, they are for the most part +begotten from the same cause; for it is against Nature that any man +should venture his life, limb, or liberty, for a wretched livelihood, +whereas moderate labour will produce a better. But of this see +Sir Thomas More, in the first part of his “Utopia.”<br> +<br> +10. As to the propagation and improvement of useful learning.<br> +<br> +The same may be said concerning it as was above said concerning manufactures, +and the arts of delight and ornaments; for in the great vast city there +can be no so odd a conceit or design whereunto some assistance may not +be found, which in the thin, scattered way of habitation may not be.<br> +<br> +11. As for the increase of people by generation. I see no +great difference from either of the two states, for the same may be +hindered or promoted in either from the same causes.<br> +<br> +12. As to the plague.<br> +<br> +It is to be remembered that one time with another a plague happeneth +in London once in twenty years, or thereabouts; for in the last hundred +years, between the years 1582 and 1682, there have been five great plagues +- viz., A.D. 1592, 1603, 1625, 1636, and 1665. And it is also +to be remembered that the plagues of London do commonly kill one-fifth +part of the inhabitants. Now if the whole people of England do +double but in 360 years, then the annual increase of the same is but +20,000, and in twenty years 400,000. But if in the city of London +there should be 2,000,000 of people (as there will be about sixty years +hence), then the plague (killing one-fifth of them, namely, 400,000 +once in twenty years) will destroy as many in one year as the whole +nation can re-furnish in twenty; and consequently the people of the +nation shall never increase. But if the people of London shall +be above 4,000,000 (as in the first of our two extravagant suppositions +is premised), then the people of the whole nation shall lessen above +20,000 per annum. So as if people be worth £70 per head +(as hath elsewhere been shown), then the said greatness of the city +will be a damage to itself and the whole nation of £1,400,000 +per annum, and so <i>pro rata </i>for a greater or lesser number; wherefore +to determine which of the two states is best - that is to say, towards +which of the said two states authority should bend the present state, +a just balance ought to be made between the disadvantages from the plague, +with the advantages accruing from the other particulars above mentioned, +unto which balance a more exact account of the people, and a better +rule for the measure of its growth is necessary than what we have here +given, or are yet able to lay down.<br> +<br> +<br> +POSTSCRIPT.<br> +<br> +<br> +It was not very pertinent to a discourse concerning the growth of the +city of London to thrust in considerations of the time when the whole +world will be fully peopled; and how to justify the Scriptures concerning +the number of people mentioned in them; and concerning the number of +the quick and the dead that may rise at the last day, &c. +Nevertheless, since some friends, liking the said digressions and impertinences +(perhaps as sauce to a dry discourse) have desired that the same might +be explained and made out, I, therefore, say as followeth:-<br> +<br> +1. If the number of acres in the habitable part of the earth be +under 50,000,000,000; if 20,000,000,000 of people are more than the +said number of acres will feed (few or no countries being so fully peopled), +and for that in six doublings (which will be in 2,000 years) the present +320,000,000 will exceed the said 20,000,000,000.<br> +<br> +2. That the number of all those who have died since the Flood +is the sum of all the products made by multiplying the number of the +doubling periods mentioned in the first column of the last table, by +the number of people respectively affixed to them in the third column +of the same table, the said sum being divided by 40 (one dying out of +40 per annum out of the whole mass of mankind), which quotient is 12,570,000,000; +whereunto may be added, for those that died before the Flood, enough +to make the last-mentioned number 20,000,000,000, as the full number +of all that died from the beginning of the world to the year 1682, unto +which, if 320,000,000, the number of those who are now alive, be added, +the total of the quick and the dead will amount but unto one fifth part +of the graves which the surface of Ireland will afford, without ever +putting two bodies into any one grave; for there be in Ireland 28,000 +square English miles, each whereof will afford about 4,000,000 of graves, +and consequently above 114,000,000,000 of graves, viz., about five times +the number of the quick and the dead which should arise at the last +day, in case the same had been in the year 1682.<br> +<br> +3. Now, if there may be place for five times as many graves in +Ireland as are sufficient for all that ever died, and if the earth of +one grave weigh five times as much as the body interred therein, then +a turf less than a foot thick pared off from a fifth part of the surface +of Ireland, will be equivalent in bulk and weight to all the bodies +that ever were buried, and may serve as well for that purpose as the +two mountains aforementioned in the body of this discourse. From +all which it is plain how madly they were mistaken who did so petulantly +vilify what the Holy Scriptures have delivered.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +FURTHER OBSERVATION UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS; <i>Or</i>,<i> Accounts of +the Houses</i>,<i> Hearths</i>,<i> Baptisms</i>,<i> and Burials in that +City.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>THE STATIONER TO THE READER.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +I have not thought fit to make any alteration of the first edition, +but have only added a new table, with observation upon it, placing the +same in the front of what was before, which, perhaps, might have been +as well placed after the like table at the eighth page of the first +edition.<br> +<br> +<br> +DUBLIN, 1682.<br> +<br> +<pre>Parishes Houses Fireplaces Baptised Buried +St. James’s 272 836 } +St. Katherine’s 540 2,198 } 122 306 +St. Nicholas } + Without and } 1,064 4,082 145 414 + St. Patrick’s } +St. Bridget’s 395 1,903 68 149 +St. Audone’s 276 1,510 56 164 +St. Michael’s 174 884 34 50 +St. John’s 302 1,636 74 101 +St. Nicholas } + Within and } 153 902 26 52 +Christ Church Lib. } +St. Warburgh’s 240 1,638 45 105 +St. Michan’s 938 3,516 124 389 +St. Andrew’s 864 3,638 131 300 +St. Kevin’s 554 2,120 } 87 233 +Donnybrook 253 506 } + 6,025 25,369 912 2,263 + + +</pre>The table hath been made for the year 1682, wherein is to be noted +-<br> +<br> +1. That the houses which A.D. 1671 were but 3,850 are, A.D. 1682, +6,025; but whether this difference is caused by the real increase of +housing, or by fraud and defect in the former accounts, is left to consideration. +For the burials of people have increased but from 1,696 to 2,263, according +to which proportion the 3,850 houses A.D. 1671 should A.D. 1682 have +been but 5,143, wherefore some fault may be suspected as aforesaid, +when farming the hearth-money was in agitation.<br> +<br> +2. The hearths have increased according to the burials, and one-third +of the said increase more, viz., the burials A.D. 1671 were 1,696, the +one-third whereof is 563, which put together makes 2,259, which is near +the number of burials A.D. 1682. But the hearths A.D. 1671 were +17,500, whereof the one-third is 5,833, making in all but 23,333; whereas +the whole hearths A.D. 1682 were 25,369, viz., one-third and better +of the said 5,833 more.<br> +<br> +3. The housing were A.D. 1671 but 3,850, which if they had increased +A.D. 1682 but according to the burials, they had been but 5,143, or, +according to the hearths, had been but 5,488, whereas they appear 6,025, +increasing double to the hearths. So as it is likely there hath +been some error in the said account of the housing, unless the new housing +be very small, and have but one chimney apiece, and that one-fourth +part of them are untenanted. On the other hand, it is more likely +that when 1,696 died per annum there were near 6,000; for 6,000 houses +at 8 inhabitants per house, would make the number of the people to be +48,000, and the number of 1,696 that died according to the rule of one +out of 30, would have made the number of inhabitants about 50,000: for +which reason I continue to believe there was some error in the account +of 3,850 houses as aforesaid, and the rather because there is no ground +from experience to think that in eleven years the houses in Dublin have +increased from 3,850 to 6,025.<br> +<br> +Moreover, I rather think that the number of 6,025 is yet short, because +that number at 8 heads per house makes the inhabitants to be but 48,200; +whereas the 2,263 who died in the year 1682, according to the aforementioned +rule of one dying out of 30 makes the number of people to be 67,890, +the medium betwixt which number and 48,200 is 58,045, which is the best +estimate I can make of that matter, which I hope authority will ere +long rectify, by direct and exact inquiries.<br> +<br> +4. As to the births, we say that A.D. 1640, 1641, and 1642, at +London, just before the troubles in religion began, the births were +five-sixths of the burials, by reason I suppose of the greaterness of +families in London above the country, and the fewer breeders, and not +for want of registering. Wherefore, deducting one-sixth of 2,263, +which is 377, there remains 1,886 for the probable number of births +in Dublin for the year 1682; whereas but 912 are represented to have +been christened in that year, though 1,023 were christened A.D. 1671, +when there died but 1,696, which decreasing of the christening, and +increasing of the burials, shows the increase of non-registering in +the legal books, which must be the increase of Roman Catholics at Dublin.<br> +<br> +The scope of this whole paper therefore is, that the people of Dublin +are rather 58,000 than 32,000, and that the dissenters, who do not register +their baptisms, have increased from 391 to 974: but of dissenters, none +have increased but the Roman Catholics, whose numbers have increased +from about two to five in the said years. The exacter knowledge +whereof may also be better had from direct inquiries.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +OBSERVATIONS UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS OF MORTALITY, 1681: AND THE STATE +OF THAT CITY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +The observations upon the London bills of mortality have been a new +light to the world, and the like observation upon those of Dublin may +serve as snuffers to make the same candle burn clearer.<br> +<br> +The London observations flowed from bills regularly kept for near one +hundred years, but these are squeezed out of six straggling London bills, +out of fifteen Dublin bills, and from a note of the families and hearths +in each parish of Dublin, which are all digested into the one table +or sheet annexed, consisting of three parts, marked A, B, C; being indeed +the A, B, C of public economy, and even of that policy which tends to +peace and plenty.<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Observations upon the Table A.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>1. The total of the burials in London (for the said six straggling +years mentioned in the Table A) is 120,170, whereof the medium or sixth +part is 20,028, and exceeds the burials of Paris, as may appear by the +late bills of that city.<br> +<br> +2. The births, for the same time, are 73,683, the medium or sixth +part whereof is 12,280, which is about five-eighth parts of the burials, +and shows that London would in time decrease quite away, were it not +supplied out of the country, where are about five births for four burials, +the proportion of breeders in the country being greater than in the +city.<br> +<br> +3. The burials in Dublin for the said six years were 9,865, the +sixth part or medium whereof is 1,644, which is about the twelfth part +of the London burials, and about a fifth part over. So as the +people of London do hereby seem to be above twelve times as many as +those of Dublin.<br> +<br> +4. The births in the same time at Dublin are 6,157, the sixth +part or medium whereof is 1,026, which is also about five-eighth parts +of the 1,644 burials, which shows that the proportion between burials +and births are alike at London and Dublin, and that the accounts are +kept alike, and consequently are likely to be true, there being no confederacy +for that purpose; which, if they be true, we then say -<br> +<br> +5. That the births are the best way (till the accounts of the +people shall be purposely taken) whereby to judge of the increase and +decrease of people, that of burials being subject to more contingencies +and variety of causes.<br> +<br> +6. If births be as yet the measure of the people, and that the +births (as has been shown) are as five to eight, then eight-fifths of +the births is the number of the burials, where the year was not considerable +for extraordinary sickness or salubrity, and is the rule whereby to +measure the same. As for example, the medium of births in Dublin +was 1,026, the eight-fifths whereof is 1,641, but the real burials were +1,644; so as in the said years they differed little from the 1,641, +which was the standard of health, and consequently the years 1680, 1674, +and 1668 were sickly years, more or less, as they exceeded the said +number, 1,641; and the rest were healthful years, more or less, as they +fell short of the same number. But the city was more or less populous, +as the births differed from the number 1,026, viz., populous in the +years 1680, 1679, 1678, and 1668, for other causes of this difference +in births are very occult and uncertain.<br> +<br> +7. What hath been said of Dublin, serves also for London.<br> +<br> +8. It hath already been observed by the London bills that there +are more males than females. It is to be further noted, that in +these six London bills, also, there is not one instance either in the +births or burials to the contrary.<br> +<br> +9. It hath been formerly observed that in the years wherein most +die fewest are born, and <i>vice versa</i>. The same may be further +observed in males and females, viz., when fewest males are born then +most die: for here the males died as twelve to eleven, which is above +the mean proportion of fourteen to thirteen, but were born but as nineteen +to eighteen, which is below the same.<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Observations upon the Table B.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>1. From the Table B it appears that the medium of the fifteen +years’ burials (being 24,199) is 1,613, whereas the medium of +the other six years in the Table A was 1,644, and that the medium of +the fifteen years’ births (being in all 14,765) is 984, whereas +the medium of the said other six years was 1,026. That is to say, +there were both fewer births and burials in these fifteen years than +in the other six years, which is a probable sign that at a medium there +were fewer people also.<br> +<br> +2. The medium of births for the fifteen years being 984, whereof +eight-fifths (being 1,576) is the standard of health for the said fifteen +years; and the triple of the said 1,576 being 4,728, is the standard +for each of the ternaries of the fifteen years within the said table.<br> +<br> +3. That 2,952, the triple of 984 births, is for each ternary the +standard of people’s increase and decrease from the year 1666 +to 1680 inclusive, viz., the people increased in the second ternary, +and decreased from the same in the third and fourth ternaries, but re-increased +in the fifth ternary beyond any other.<br> +<br> +4. That the last ternary was withal very healthful, the burials +being but 4,624, viz., below 4,728, the standard.<br> +<br> +5. That according to this proportion of increase, the housing +of Dublin have probably increased also.<br> +<br> +<i>Observations upon the Table C.<br> +<br> +</i>1. First, from the Table C it appears, 1. That the housing +of Dublin is such, as that there are not five hearths in each house +one with another, but nearer five than four.<br> +<br> +2. That in St. Warburgh’s parish are near six hearths to +a house. In St. John’s five. In St. Michael’s +above five. In St. Nicholas Within above six. In Christ +Church above seven. In St. James’s and St. Katherine’s, +and in St. Michan’s, not four. In St. Kevin’s about +four.<br> +<br> +3. That in St. James’s, St. Michan’s, St. Bride’s, +St. Warburgh’s, St. Andrew’s, St. Michael’s, and St. +Patrick’s, all the christenings were but 550, and the burials +1,055, viz., near double; and that in the rest of the parishes the christenings +were five, and the burials seven, viz., as 457 to 634. Now whether +the cause of this difference was negligence in accounts, or the greaterness +of the families, &c., is worth inquiring.<br> +<br> +4. It is hard to say in what order (as to greatness) these parishes +ought to stand, some having most families, some most hearths, some most +births, and others most burials. Some parishes exceeding the rest +in two, others in three of the said four particulars, but none in all +four. Wherefore this table ranketh them according to the plurality +of the said four particulars wherein each excelleth the other.<br> +<br> +5. The London observations reckon eight heads in each family, +according to which estimation, there are 32,000 souls in the 4,000 families +of Dublin, which is but half of what most men imagine, of which but +about one sixth part are able to bear arms, besides the royal regiment.<br> +<br> +6. Without the knowledge of the true number of people, as a principle, +the whole scope and use of the keeping bills of births and burials is +impaired; wherefore by laborious conjectures and calculations to deduce +the number of people from the births and burials, may be ingenious, +but very preposterous.<br> +<br> +7. If the number of families in Dublin be about 4,000, then ten +men in one week (at the charge of about £5 surveying eight families +in an hour) may directly, and without algebra, make an account of the +whole people, expressing their several ages, sex, marriages, title, +trade, religion, &c., and those who survey the hearths, or the constables +or the parish clerks (may, if required) do the same ex officio, and +without other charge, by the command of the chief governor, the diocesan, +or the mayor.<br> +<br> +8. The bills of London have since their beginning admitted several +alterations and improvements, and £8 or £10 per annum surcharge, +would make the bills of Dublin to exceed all others, and become an excellent +instrument of Government. To which purpose the forms for weekly, +quarterly, and yearly bills are humbly recommended, viz.<br> +<br> +<pre>TABLE A - YEARLY BILLS OF MORTALITY FOR +A.D. LONDON and DUBLIN. + Burials Births Burials Births +1680 21,053 12,747 1,826 1,096 +1679 21,730 12,288 1,397 1,061 +1678 20,678 12,601 1,401 1,045 +1674 21,201 11,851 2,106 942 +1672 18,230 12,563 1,436 987 +1668 17,278 11,633 1,699 1,026 + 120,170 73,683 9,865 6,157 +The medium +or 6th part +whereof is +part whereof +is 20,028 12,280 1,644 1,026 + +TABLE A - CONTINUED + +A.D. LONDON. + BURIALS. BIRTHS. + Male Female Male Female +1680 11,039 10,044 6,543 6,041 +1679 11,154 10,576 6,247 6,041 +1678 10,681 9,977 6,568 6,033 +1674 11,000 10,196 6,113 5,738 +1672 9,560 8,070 6,443 6,120 +1668 9,111 8,167 6,073 5,566 + 62,545 57,030 37,992 35,697 +The medium +or 6th part +whereof is +part whereof +is 10,424 9,505 6,332 5,949 + +</pre>TABLE B. - DUBLIN.<br> +<br> +<pre>A.D. Burials Births In Ternaries of Years +1666 1,480 952 } +1667 1,642 1,001 } 4,821 2,979 +1668 1,699 1,026 } +1669 1,666 1,000 } +1670 1,713 1,067 } 5,353 3,070 +1671 1,974 1,003 } +1672 1,436 967 } +1673 1,531 933 } 5,073 2,842 +1674 2,106 942 } +1675 1,578 823 } +1676 1,391 952 } 4,328 2,672 +1677 1,359 897 } +1678 1,401 1,045 } +1679 1,397 1,061 } 4,624 3,202 +1680 1,826 1,096 } + 24,199 14,765 24,199 14,765 +The medium } +or 15th }1,613 984 1,613 984 +part whereof } +is } + +TABLE C. + +THE PARISHES OF DUBLIN A.D. A.D., 1670-71-72 + 1671. at a medium + Families Hearths Births Burials +St. Katherine’s 661 2,399 161 290 + and St. James’s +St. Nicholas Without 490 2,348 207 262 +St. Michan’s 656 2,301 127 221 +St. Andrew’s with Donnybrook 483 2,123 108 178 +St. Bridget’s 416 1,989 70 100 +St. John’s 244 1,337 70 138 +St. Warburgh’s 267 1,650 54 103 +St. Audaen’s 216 1,081 53 121 +St. Michael’s 140 793 44 59 +St. Kevin’s 106 433 64 133 +St. Nicholas Within 93 614 28 34 +St. Patrick’s Liberties 52 255 21 44 +Christ Church and Trinity + College, per estimate 26 197 - 1 + 3,850 17,500 1,013 1,696 + +Houses built between 1671 and +1681, per estimate 150 550 + 4,000 18,150 + +A WEEKLY BILL OF MORTALITY FOR THE CITY OF DUBLIN, +Ending the XXX day of XXX 1681. + +PARISHES’ NAMES. +St. Katharine’s and St. James’s +St. Nicholas Without +St. Michan’s +St. Andrew’s with Donnybrook +St. Bridget’s +St. John’s +St. Warburgh’s +St. Audaen’s +St. Michael’s +St. Kevin’s +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick’s Liberties +Christ Church and Trinity College +Totals + +</pre>[The columns for the table are: Births, Males, Females, Burials, +Under 16 years old, Plague, Small Pox, Measles, Spotted Fever. +In the book there are no figures in the table at all. - DP.]<br> +<br> +<br> +<pre>A QUARTERLY BILL OF MORTALITY, +Beginning XXX and ending XXX for the City of DUBLIN +PARISHES’ NAMES. +St. Katharine’s and St. James’s +St. Nicholas Without +St. Michan’s +St. Andrew’s with Donnybrook +St. Bridget’s +St. John’s +St. Warburgh’s +St. Audaen’s +St. Michael’s +St. Kevin’s +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick’s Liberties +Christ Church and Trinity College +Totals + +</pre>[The columns for the table are: Births 1.; Marriages 2.; Buried +under 16 years olds; Buried above 60 years old; Measles, Spotted Fever, +Small Pox, Plague; Consumption, Dropsy, Gout, Stone; Fever, Pleurisy, +Quinsy, Sudden Death; Aged above 70 years old; Infants under 2 years +old; All other Casualties. In the book there are no figures in +the table at all. - DP.]<br> +<br> +<br> +<pre>AN ACCOUNT OF THE PEOPLE OF DUBLIN FOR ONE YEAR, +Ending the 24th of March, 1681. +PARISHES’ NAMES. +St. Katharine’s and St. James’s +St. Nicholas Without +St. Michan’s +St. Andrew’s with Donnybrook +St. Bridget’s +St. John’s +St. Warburgh’s +St. Audaen’s +St. Michael’s +St. Kevin’s +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick’s Liberties +Christ Church and Trinity College +Totals + +</pre>[The columns for the table are: Number of person; Males; Females; +Remarried Persons; Persons under 16 years old; Persons above 60 years +old; Protestants of above 16 years old; Papists of above 16 years old; +Of all other religions above 16 years old; Births; Burials; Marriages. +In the book there are no figures in the table at all. - DP.]<br> +<br> +<br> +CASUALTIES AND DISEASES.<br> +<pre>Aged above 70 years Epilepsy and planet +Abortive and still-born Fever and ague +Childbed women Pleurisy +Convulsion Quinsy +Teeth Executed, murdered, +Worms drowned +Gout and sciatica Plague and spotted fever +Stone Griping of the guts +Palsy Scouring, vomiting +Consumption and French bleeding + pox Small pox +Dropsy and tympany Measles +Rickets and livergrown Neither of all the other +Headache and megrim sorts + + + +</pre>A POSTSCRIPT TO THE STATIONER.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +Whereas you complain that these observations make no sufficient bulk, +I could answer you that I wish the bulk of all books were less; but +do nevertheless comply with you in adding what follows, viz.:<br> +<br> +1. That the parishes of Dublin are very unequal; some having in +them above 600 families, and others under thirty.<br> +<br> +2. That thirteen parishes are too few for 4,000 families; the +middling parishes of London containing 120 families; according to which +rate there should be about thirty-three parishes in Dublin.<br> +<br> +3. It is said that there are 84,000 houses or families in London, +which is twenty-one times more than are in Dublin, and yet the births +and burials of London are but twelve times those of Dublin, which shows +that the inhabitants of Dublin are more crowded and straitened in their +housing than those of London; and consequently that to increase the +buildings of Dublin will make that city more conformable to London.<br> +<br> +4. I shall also add some reasons for altering the present forms +of the Dublin bills of mortality, according to what hath been here recommended +- viz.:<br> +<br> +1. We give the distinctions of males and females in the births +only; for that the burials must, at one time or another, be in the same +proportion with the births.<br> +<br> +2. We do in the weekly and quarterly bills propose that notice +be taken in the burials of what numbers die above sixty and seventy, +and what under sixteen, six, and two years old, foreseeing good uses +to be made of that distinction.<br> +<br> +3. We do in the yearly bill reduce the casualties to about twenty-four, +being such as may be discerned by common sense, and without art, conceiving +that more will but perplex and imbroil the account. And in the +quarterly bills we reduce the diseases to three heads - viz., contagious, +acute, and chronical, applying this distinction to parishes, in order +to know how the different situation, soil, and way of living in each +parish doth dispose men to each of the said three species; and in the +weekly bills we take notice not only of the plague, but of the other +contagious diseases in each parish, that strangers and fearful persons +may thereby know how to dispose of themselves.<br> +<br> +4. We mention the number of the people, as the fundamental term +in all our proportions; and without which all the rest will be almost +fruitless.<br> +<br> +5. We mention the number of marriages made in every quarter, and +in every year, as also the proportion which married persons bear to +the whole, expecting in such observations to read the improvement of +the nation.<br> +<br> +6. As for religions, we reduce them to three - viz.: (1) those +who have the Pope of Rome for their head; (2) who are governed by the +laws of their country; (3) those who rely respectively upon their own +private judgments. Now, whether these distinctions should be taken +notice of or not, we do but faintly recommend, seeing many reasons <i>pro +</i>and <i>con </i>for the same; and, therefore, although we have mentioned +it as a matter fit to be considered, yet we humbly leave it to authority.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +TWO ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC,<br> +<i>Concerning the People</i>,<i> Housing</i>,<i> Hospitals</i>,<i> &c.</i>,<i> +of London and Paris.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>TO THE KING’S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +I do presume, in a very small paper, to show your Majesty that your +City of London seems more considerable than the two best cities of the +French monarchy, and for aught I can find, greater than any other of +the universe, which because I can say without flattery, and by such +demonstration as your Majesty can examine, I humbly pray your Majesty +to accept from<br> +<br> +Your Majesty’s<br> +Most humble, loyal, and obedient subject,<br> +WILLIAM PETTY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Tending to prove that London hath more people and housing than the +cities of Paris and Rouen put together</i>,<i> and is also more considerable +in several other respects.<br> +<br> +</i>1. The medium of the burials at London in the three last years +- viz., 1683, 1684, and 1685, wherein there was no extraordinary sickness, +and wherein the christenings do correspond in their ordinary proportions +with the burials and christenings of each year one with another, was +22,337, and the like medium of burials for the three last Paris bills +we could procure - viz., for the years 1682, 1683, and 1684 (whereof +the last as appears by the christenings to have been very sickly), is +19,887.<br> +<br> +2. The city of Bristol in England appears to be by good estimate +of its trade and customs as great as Rouen in France, and the city of +Dublin in Ireland appears to have more chimneys than Bristol, and consequently +more people, and the burials in Dublin were, A.D. 1682 (being a sickly +year) but 2,263.<br> +<br> +3. Now the burials of Paris (being 19,887) being added to the +burials of Dublin (supposed more than at Rouen) being 2,263, makes but +22,150, whereas the burials of London were 187 more, or 22,337, or as +about 6 to 7.<br> +<br> +4. If those who die unnecessarily, and by miscarriage in L’Hôtel +Dieu in Paris (being above 3,000), as hath been elsewhere shown, or +any part thereof, should be subtracted out of the Paris burials aforementioned, +then our assertion will be stronger, and more proportionable to what +follows concerning the housing of those cities, viz.:<br> +<br> +5. There were burnt at London, A.D. 1666, above 13,000 houses, +which being but a fifth part of the whole, the whole number of houses +in the said year were above 65,000; and whereas the ordinary burials +of London have increased between the years 1666 and 1686, above one-third +the total of the houses at London, A.D. 1686, must be about 87,000, +which A.D. 1682, appeared by account to have been 84,000.<br> +<br> +6. Monsieur Moreri, the great French author of the late geographical +dictionaries, who makes Paris the greatest city in the world, doth reckon +but 50,000 houses in the same, and other authors and knowing men much +less; nor are there full 7,000 houses in the city of Dublin, so as if +the 50,000 houses of Paris, and the 7,000 houses in the city of Dublin +were added together, the total is but 57,000 houses, whereas those of +London are 87,000 as aforesaid, or as 6 to 9.<br> +<br> +7. As for the shipping and foreign commerce of London, the common +sense of all men doth judge it to be far greater than that of Paris +and Rouen put together.<br> +<br> +8. As to the wealth and gain accruing to the inhabitants of London +and Paris by law-suits (or <i>La chicane</i>) I only say that the courts +of London extend to all England and Wales, and affect seven millions +of people, whereas those of Paris do not extend near so far. Moreover, +there is no palpable conspicuous argument at Paris for the number and +wealth of lawyers like the buildings and chambers in the two Temples, +Lincoln’s Inn, Gray’s Inn, Doctors’ Commons, and the +seven other inns in which are chimneys, which are to be seen at London, +besides many lodgings, halls, and offices, relating to the same.<br> +<br> +9. As to the plentiful and easy living of the people we say,<br> +<br> +(a.) That the people of Paris to those of London, being as about 6 to +7, and the housing of the same as about 6 to 9, we infer that the people +do not live at London so close and crowded as at Paris, but can afford +themselves more room and liberty.<br> +<br> +(b.) That at London the hospitals are better and more desirable than +those of Paris, for that in the best at Paris there die two out of fifteen, +whereas at London there die out of the worst scarce 2 out of 16, and +yet but a fiftieth part of the whole die out of the hospitals at London, +and two-fifths, or twenty times that proportion die out of the Paris +hospitals which are of the same kind; that is to say, the number of +those at London, who choose to lie sick in hospitals rather than in +their own houses, are to the like people of Paris as one to twenty; +which shows the greater poverty or want of means in the people of Paris +than those of London.<br> +<br> +(c.) We infer from the premises, viz., the dying scarce two of sixteen +out of the London hospitals, and about two of fifteen in the best of +Paris, to say nothing of L’Hôtel Dieu, that either the physicians +and chirurgeons of London are better than those of Paris, or that the +air of London is more wholesome.<br> +<br> +10. As for the other great cities of the world, if Paris were +the greatest we need say no more in behalf of London. As for Pekin +in China, we have no account fit to reason upon; nor is there anything +in the description of the two late voyages of the Chinese emperor from +that city into East and West Tartary, in the years 1682 and 1683, which +can make us recant what we have said concerning London. As for +Delhi and Agra, belonging to the Mogul, we find nothing against our +position, but much to show the vast numbers which attend that emperor +in his business and pleasures.<br> +<br> +11. We shall conclude with Constantinople and Grand Cairo; as +for Constantinople it hath been said by one who endeavoured to show +the greatness of that city, and the greatness of the plague which raged +in it, that there died 1,500 per diem, without other circumstances; +to which we answer, that in the year 1665 there died in London 1,200 +per diem, and it hath been well proved that the Plague of London never +carried away above one-fifth of the people, whereas it is commonly believed +that in Constantinople, and other eastern cities, and even in Italy +and Spain, that the plague takes away two-fifths, one half, or more; +wherefore where 1,200 is but one-fifth of the people it is probable +that the number was greater, than where 1,500 was two-fifths or one +half, &c.<br> +<br> +12. As for Grand Cairo it is reported, that 73,000 died in ten +weeks, or 1,000 per diem, where note, that at Grand Cairo the plague +comes and goes away suddenly, and that the plague takes away two or +three-fifths parts of the people as aforesaid; so as 73,000 was probably +the number of those that died of the plague in one whole year at Grand +Cairo, whereas at London, A.D. 1665, 97,000 were brought to account +to have died in that year. Wherefore it is certain, that that +city wherein 97,000 was but one-fifth of the people, the number was +greater than where 73,000 was two-fifths or the half.<br> +<br> +We therefore conclude, that London hath more people, housing, shipping, +and wealth, than Paris and Rouen put together; and for aught yet appears, +is more considerable than any other city in the universe, which was +propounded to be proved.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Tending to prove that in the hospital called L’Hôtel +Dieu at Paris, there die above 3,000 per annum by reason of ill accommodation.<br> +<br> +</i>1. It appears that A.D. 1678 there entered into the Hospital +of La Charité 2,647 souls, of which there died there within the +said year 338, which is above an eighth part of the said 2,647; and +that in the same year there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 21,491, +and that there died out of that number 5,630, which is above one quarter, +so as about half the said 5,630, being 2,815, seem to have died for +want of as good usage and accommodation as might have been had at La +Charité.<br> +<br> +2. Moreover, in the year 1679 there entered into La Charité +3,118, of which there died 452, which is above a seventh part, and in +the same year there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 28,635, of +which there died 8,397; and in both the said years 1678 and 1679 (being +very different in their degrees of mortality) there entered into L’Hôtel +Dieu 28,635 and 2l,491 - in all 50,126, the medium whereof is 25,063; +and there died out of the same in the said two years, 5,630 and 8,397 +- in all 14,027, the medium whereof is 7,013.<br> +<br> +3. There entered in the said years into La Charité 2,647 +and 3,118, in all 5,765, the medium whereof is 2,882, whereof there +died 338 and 452, in all 790, the medium whereof is 395.<br> +<br> +4. Now, if there died out of L’Hôtel Dieu 7,013 per +annum, and that the proportion of those that died out of L’Hôtel +Dieu is double to those that died out of La Charité (as by the +above numbers it appears to be near thereabouts), then it follows that +half the said numbers of 7,013, being 3,506, did not die by natural +necessity, but by the evil administration of that hospital.<br> +<br> +5. This conclusion seemed at the first sight very strange, and +rather to be some mistake or chance than a solid and real truth; but +considering the same matter as it appeared at London, we were more reconciled +to the belief of it, viz.:-<br> +<br> +(a.) In the Hospital of St. Bartholomew in London, there was sent out +and cured in the year 1685, 1,764 persons, and there died out of the +said hospital 252. Moreover, there were sent out and cured out +of St. Thomas’s Hospital 1,523, and buried, 209 - that is to say, +there were cured in both hospitals 3,287, and buried out of both hospitals +461, and consequently cured and buried 3,748, of which number the 461 +buried is less than an eighth part; whereas at La Charité the +part that died was more than an eighth part; which shows that out of +the most poor and wretched hospitals of London there died fewer in proportion +than out of the best in Paris.<br> +<br> +(b.) Furthermore, it hath been above shown that there died out of La +Charité at a medium 395 per annum, and 141 out of Les Incurables, +making in all 536; and that out of St. Bartholomew’s and St. Thomas’s +Hospitals, London, there died at a medium but 461, of which Les Incurables +are part; which shows that although there be more people in London than +in Paris, yet there went at London not so many people to hospitals as +there did at Paris, although the poorest hospitals at London were better +than the best at Paris; which shows that the poorest people at London +have better accommodation in their own houses than the best hospital +of Paris affordeth.<br> +<br> +6. Having proved that there die about 3,506 persons at Paris unnecessarily, +to the damage of France, we come next to compute the value of the said +damage, and of the remedy thereof, as follows, viz., the value of the +said 3,506 at 60 livres sterling per head, being about the value of +Argier slaves (which is less than the intrinsic value of people at Paris), +the whole loss of the subjects of France in that hospital seems to be +60 times 3,506 livres sterling per annum, viz., 210,360 livres sterling, +equivalent to about 2,524,320 French livres.<br> +<br> +7. It hath appeared that there came into L’Hôtel Dieu +at a medium 25,063 per annum, or 2,089 <i>per mensem</i>, and that the +whole stock of what remained in the precedent months is at a medium +about 2,108 (as may appear by the third line of the Table No. 5, which +shall be shortly published), viz., the medium of months is 2,410 for +the sickly year 1679, whereunto 1,806 being added as the medium of months +for the year 1678, makes 4,216, the medium whereof is the 2,108 above +mentioned; which number being added to the 2,089 which entered each +month, makes 4,197 for the number of sick which are supposed to be always +in L’Hôtel Dieu one time with another.<br> +<br> +8. Now, if 60 French livres per annum for each of the said 4,197 +sick persons were added to the present ordinary expense of that hospital +(amounting to an addition of 251,820 livres), it seems that so many +lives might be saved as are worth above ten times that sum, and this +by doing a manifest deed of charity to mankind.<br> +<br> +<i>Memorandum</i>. - That A.D. 1685, the burials of London were 23,222, +and those of Amsterdam 6,245; from whence, and the difference of air, +it is probable that the people of London are quadruple to those of Amsterdam.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +OBSERVATIONS UPON THE CITIES OF LONDON AND ROME<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +1. That before the year 1630 the christenings at London exceeded +the burials of the same, but about the year 1655 they were scarce half; +and now about two-thirds.<br> +<br> +2. Before the restoration of monarchy in England, A.D. 1660, the +people of Paris were more than those of London and Dublin put together, +whereas now, the people of London are more than those of Paris and Rome, +or of Paris and Rouen.<br> +<br> +3. A.D. 1665 one fifth part of the then people of London, or 97,000, +died of the plague, and in the next year, 1666, 13,000 houses, or one +fifth part of all the housing of London, were burnt also.<br> +<br> +4. At the birth of Christ old Rome was the greatest city of the +world, and London the greatest at the coronation of King James II., +and near six times as great as the present Rome, wherein are 119,000 +souls besides Jews.<br> +<br> +5. In the years of King Charles II.’s death, and King James +II.’s coronation (which were neither of them remarkable for extraordinary +sickliness or healthfulness) the burials did wonderfully agree, viz., +A.D. 1684, they were 23,202, and A.D. 1685, they were 23,222, the medium +whereof is 23,212. And the christenings did very wonderfully agree +also, having been A.D. 1684, 14,702, and A.D. 1685, 14,732, the medium +whereof is 14,716, which consistence was never seen before, the said +number of 23,212 burials making the people of London to be 696,360, +at the rate of one dying per annum out of 30.<br> +<br> +6. Since the great Fire of London, A.D. 1666, about 7 parts of +15 of the present vast city hath been new built, and is with its people +increased near one half, and become equal to Paris and Rome put together, +the one being the seat of the great French Monarchy, and the other of +the Papacy.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +FIVE ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +I. Objections from the city of Ray in Persia, and from Monsier +Auzout, against two former essays, answered, and that London hath as +many people as Paris, Rome, and Rouen put together.<br> +<br> +II. A comparison between London and Paris in 14 particulars.<br> +<br> +III. Proofs that at London, within its 134 parishes named in the +bills of mortality, there live about 696,000 people.<br> +<br> +IV. An estimate of the people in London, Paris, Amsterdam, Venice, +Rome, Dublin, Bristol, and Rouen, with several observations upon the +same.<br> +<br> +V. Concerning Holland and the rest of the Seven United Provinces.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +TO THE KING’S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY<br> +<br> +Sir,<br> +<br> +Your Majesty having graciously accepted my two late essays, about the +cities and hospitals of London and Paris, as also my observations on +Rome and Rouen; I do (after six months’ waiting for what may be +said against my several doctrines by the able men of Europe) humbly +present your Majesty with a few other papers upon the same subject, +to strengthen, explain, and enlarge the former; hoping by such real +arguments, better to praise and magnify your Majesty, than by any other +the most specious words and eulogies that can be imagined by<br> +<br> +Your Majesty’s<br> +Most humble, loyal<br> +And obedient subject,<br> +WILLIAM PETTY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +THE FIRST ESSAY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +It could not be expected that an assertion of London’s being bigger +than Paris and Rouen, or than Paris and Rome put together, and bigger +than any city of the world, should escape uncontradicted; and ’tis +also expected that I (if continuing in the same persuasion), should +make some reply to those contradictions. In order whereunto,<br> +<br> +I begin with the ingenious author of the “<i>République +des Lettres</i>,” who saith that Rey in Persia is far bigger than +London, for that in the sixth century of Christianity (I suppose, A.D. +550 the middle of that century), it had 15,000, or rather 44,000 mosques +or Mahometan temples; to which I reply, that I hope this objector is +but in jest, for that Mahomet was not born till about the year 570, +and had no mosques till about 50 years after.<br> +<br> +In the next place I reply to the excellent Monsieur Auzout’s “Letters +from Rome,” who is content that London, Westminster, and Southwark +may have as many people as Paris and its suburbs; and but faintly denieth, +that all the housing within the bills may have almost as many people +as Paris and Rouen, but saith that several parishes inserted into these +bills are distant from, and not contiguous with London, and that Grant +so understood it.<br> +<br> +To which (as his main if not his only objection) we answer: - (l) That +the London bills appear in Grant’s book to have been always, since +the year 1636; as they now are; (2) That about fifty years since, three +or four parishes, formerly somewhat distant, were joined by interposed +buildings to the bulk of the city, and therefore then inserted into +the bills; (3) That since fifty years the whole buildings being more +than double have perfected that union, so as there is no house within +the said bills from which one may not call to some other house; (4) +All this is confirmed by authority of the king and city, and the custom +of fifty years; (5) That there are but three parishes under any colour +of this exception which are scarce one-fifty-second part of the whole.<br> +<br> +Upon the whole matter, upon sight of Monsieur Auzout’s large letter, +dated the 19th of November, from Rome, I made remarks upon every paragraph +thereof, but suppressing it (because it looked like a war against a +worthy person with whom I intended none, whereas, in truth, it was but +a reconciling explication of some doubts) I have chosen the shorter +and softer way of answering Monsieur Auzout as followeth, viz.:-<br> +<br> +Concerning the number of people in London, as also in Paris, Rouen, +and Rome, viz.:-<br> +<br> +Monsieur Auzout allegeth an authentic account that there are 23,223 +houses in Paris, wherein do live about eighty thousand families, and +therefore supposing three and a half families to live in every of the +said houses, one with another, the number of families will be 81,280; +and Monsier Auzout also allowing six heads to each family, the utmost +number of people in Paris, according to that opinion, will be 487,680.<br> +<br> +The medium of the Paris burials was not denied by Monsier Auzout to +be 19,887, nor that there died 3,506 unnecessarily out of the L’Hôtel +Dieu; wherefore deducting the said last number out of the former, the +net standard for burials at Paris will be 16,381, so, as the number +of people there, allowing but one to die out of thirty (which is more +advantageous to Paris than Monsieur Auzout’s opinion of one to +die out of twenty-five) the number of people at Paris will be 491,430 +more than by Monsier Auzout’s own last-mentioned account 491,430.<br> +<br> +And the medium of the said two Paris accounts is 488,055.<br> +<br> +The medium of the London burials is really 23,212, which, multiplied +by thirty (as hath been done for Paris), the number of the people there +will be 696,360.<br> +<br> +The number of houses at London appears by the register to be 105,315, +whereunto adding one-tenth part of the same, or 10,315, as the least +number of double families that can be supposed in London, the total +of families will be 115,840, and allowing six heads for each family, +as was done for Paris, the total of the people at London will be 695,076.<br> +<br> +The medium of the two last London accounts is 695,718.<br> +<br> +So, as the people of Paris, according to the above account, is 488,055.<br> +Of Rouen, according to Monsieur Auzout’s utmost demands 80,000.<br> +Of Rome, according to his own report thereof in a former letter 125,000.<br> +Total 693,055.<br> +<br> +So as there are more people at London than at Paris, Rouen, and Rome +by 2,663.<br> +<br> +Memorandum. - That the parishes of Islington, Newington, and Hackney, +for which only there is any colour of non-contiguity, is not one-fifty-second +part of what is contained in the bills of mortality, and consequently +London, without the said three parishes, hath more people than Paris +and Rouen put together, by 114,284.<br> +<br> +Which number of 114,284 is probably more people than any other city +of France contains.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +THE SECOND ESSAY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +As for other comparisons of London with Paris, we farther repeat and +enlarge what hath been formerly said upon those matters, as followeth, +viz.:-<br> +<br> +1. That forty per cent. die out of the hospitals at Paris where +so many die unnecessarily, and scarce one-twentieth of that proportion +out of the hospitals of London, which have been shown to be better than +the best of Paris.<br> +<br> +2. That at Paris 81,280 kitchens are within less than 24,000 street-doors, +which makes less cleanly and convenient way of living than at London.<br> +<br> +3. Where the number of christenings are near unto, or exceed the +burials, the people are poorer, having few servants and little equipage.<br> +<br> +4. The river Thames is more pleasant and navigable than the Seine, +and its waters better and more wholesome; and the bridge of London is +the most considerable of all Europe.<br> +<br> +5. The shipping and foreign trade of London is incomparably greater +than that at Paris and Rouen.<br> +<br> +6. The lawyers’ chambers at London have 2,772 chimnies in +them, and are worth £140,000 sterling, or 3,000,000 of French +livres, besides the dwellings of their families elsewhere.<br> +<br> +7. The air is more wholesome, for that at London scarce two of +sixteen die out of the worst hospitals, but at Paris above two of fifteen +out of the best. Moreover the burials of Paris are one-fifth part +above and below the medium, but at London not above one-twelfth, so +as the intemperies of the air at Paris is far greater than at London.<br> +<br> +8. The fuel cheaper, and lies in less room, the coals being a +wholesome sulphurous bitumen.<br> +<br> +9. All the most necessary sorts of victuals, and of fish, are +cheaper, and drinks of all sorts in greater variety and plenty.<br> +<br> +10. The churches of London we leave to be judged by thinking that +nothing at Paris is so great as St. Paul’s was, and is like to +be, nor so beautiful as Henry the Seventh’s chapel.<br> +<br> +11. On the other hand, it is probable, that there is more money +in Paris than London, if the public revenue (grossly speaking, quadruple +to that of England) be lodged there.<br> +<br> +12. Paris hath not been for these last fifty years so much infested +with the plague as London; now that at London the plague (which between +the years 1591 and 1666 made five returns, viz., every fifteen years, +at a medium, and at each time carried away one-fifth of the people) +hath not been known for the 21 years last past, and there is a visible +way by God’s ordinary blessing to lessen the same by two-thirds +when it next appeareth.<br> +<br> +13. As to the ground upon which Paris stands in respect of London, +we say, that if there be five stories or floors of housing at Paris, +for four at London, or in that proportion, then the 82,000 families +of Paris stand upon the equivalent of 65,000 London housteds, and if +there be 115,000 families at London, and but 82,000 at Paris, then the +proportion of the London ground to that of Paris is as 115 to sixty-five, +or as twenty-three to thirteen.<br> +<br> +14. Moreover Paris is said to be an oval of three English miles +long and two and a half broad, the area whereof contains but five and +a half square miles; but London is seven miles long, and one and a quarter +broad at a medium, which makes an area of near nine square miles, which +proportion of five and half to nine differs little from that of thirteen +to twenty-three.<br> +<br> +15. Memorandum, that in Nero’s time, as Monsieur Chivreau +reporteth, there died 300,000 people of the plague in old Rome; now +if there died three of ten then and there, being a hotter country, as +there dies two of ten at London, the number of people at that time, +was but a million, whereas at London they are now about 700,000. +Moreover the ground within the walls of old Rome was a circle but of +three miles diameter, whose area is about seven square miles, and the +suburbs scarce as much more, in all about thirteen square miles, whereas +the built ground at London is about nine square miles as aforesaid; +which two sorts of proportions agree with each other, and consequently +old Rome seems but to have been half as big again as the present London, +which we offer to antiquaries.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +THE THIRD ESSAY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +Proofs that the number of people in the 134 parishes of the London bills +of mortality, without reference to other cities, is about 696,000, viz. +-<br> +<br> +I know but three ways of finding the same.<br> +<br> +1. By the houses, and families, and heads living in each.<br> +<br> +2. By the number of burials in healthful times, and by the proportion +of those that live, to those that die.<br> +<br> +3. By the number of those who die of the plague in pestilential +years, in proportion to those that escape.<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>The First Way.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>To know the number of houses, I used three methods, viz. -<br> +<br> +1. The number of houses which were burnt A.D. 1666, which by authentic +report was 13,200; next what proportion the people who died out of those +houses, bore to the whole; which I find A.D. 1686, to be but one seventh +part, but A.D. 1666 to be almost one-fifth, from whence I infer the +whole housing of London A.D. 1666 to have been 66,000, then finding +the burials A.D. 1666 to be to those of 1686 as 3 to 4,I pitch upon +88,000 to be the number of housing A.D. 1686.<br> +<br> +2. Those who have been employed in making the general map of London, +set forth in the year 1682, told me that in that year they had found +above 84,000 houses to be in London, wherefore A.D. 1686, or in four +years more, there might be one-tenth or 8,400 houses more (London doubling +in forty years) so as the whole, A.D. 1686 might be 92,400.<br> +<br> +3. I found that A.D. 1685, there were 29,325 hearths in Dublin, +and 6,400 houses, and in London 388 thousand hearths, whereby there +must have been at that rate 87,000 houses in London. Moreover +I found that in Bristol there were in the same year 16,752 hearth; and +5,307 houses, and in London 388,000 hearths as aforesaid; at which rate +there must have been 123,000 houses in London, and at a medium between +Dublin and Bristol proportions 105,000 houses.<br> +<br> +Lastly, by certificate from the hearth office, I find the houses within +the bills of mortality to be 105,315.<br> +<br> +Having thus found the houses, I proceed next to the number of families +in them, and first I thought that if there were three or four families +or kitchens in every house of Paris, there might be two families in +one-tenth of the housing of London; unto which supposition, the common +opinion of several friends doth concur with my own conjectures.<br> +<br> +As to the number of heads in each family, I stick to Grant’s observation +in page --- of his fifth edition, that in tradesmen of London’s +families there be eight heads one with another, in families of higher +ranks, above ten, and in the poorest near live, according to which proportions, +I had upon another occasion pitched the medium of heads in all the families +of England to be six and one-third, but quitting the fraction in this +case, I agree with Monsieur Auzout for six.<br> +<br> +To conclude, the houses of London being 105,315 and the addition of +double families 10,531 more, in all 115,846; I multiplied the same by +six, which produced 695,076 for the number of the people.<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>The Second Way.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, and +both healthful, did wonderfully agree in their burials, viz., 1684 they +were 23,202, and A.D. 1685 23,222, the medium whereof is 23,212; moreover +that the christenings 1684 were 14,702, and those A.D. 1685 were 14,730, +wherefore I multiplied the medium of burials 23,212 by 30, supposing +that one dies out of 30 at London, which made the number of people 696,360 +souls.<br> +<br> +Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London or thereabouts, I say +-<br> +<br> +1. That Grant in the --- page of his fifth edition, affirmeth +from observation, that 3 died of 88 per annum which is near the same +proportion.<br> +<br> +2. I found that out of healthful places, and out of adult persons, +there dies much fewer, as but one out of 50 among our parliament men, +and that the kings of England having reigned 24 years one with another, +probably lived above 30 years each.<br> +<br> +3. Grant, page --- hath shown that but about one of 20 die per +annum out of young children under 10 years old, and Monsieur Auzout +thinks that but 1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion of +adult persons there, wherefore we still stick as a medium to the number +30.<br> +<br> +4. In nine country parishes lying in several parts of England, +I find that but one of 37 hath died per annum, or 311 out of 11,507, +wherefore till I see another round number, grounded upon many observations, +nearer than 30, I hope to have done pretty well in multiplying our burials +by 30 to find the number of the people, the product being 696,360, and +what we find by the families they are 695,076, as aforesaid.<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>The Third Way.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>It was proved by Grant, that one-fifth of the people died of the +plague, but A.D. 1665 there died of the plague near 98,000 persons, +the quintuple whereof is 490,000 as the number of people in the year +1665, whereunto adding above one-third, as the increase between 1665 +and 1686, the total is 653,000, agreeing well enough with the other +two computations above mentioned.<br> +<br> +Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue till a better be put +in its place.<br> +<br> +<i>Memorandum</i>. That two or three hundred new houses would +make a contiguity of two or three other great parishes, with the 134 +already mentioned in the bills of mortality: and that an oval wall of +about twenty miles in compass would enclose the same, and all the shipping +at Deptford and Blackwall, and would also fence in 20,000 acres of land, +and lay the foundation or designation of several vast advantages to +the owners, and inhabitants of that ground, as also to the whole nation +and government.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +THE FOURTH ESSAY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Concerning the proportions of People in the eight eminent Cities +of Christendom undernamed, </i>viz.:-<br> +<br> +1. We have by the number of burials in healthful years, and by +the proportion of the living to those who die yearly, as also by the +number of houses and families within the 134 parishes called London, +and the estimate of the heads in each, pitched upon the number of people +in that city to be at a medium 695,718.<br> +<br> +2. We have, by allowing that at Paris above 80,000 families, viz., +81,280, do live in 23,223 houses, 32 palaces, and 38 colleges, or that +there are 81,280 kitchens within less than 24,000 street doors; as also +by allowing 30 heads for every one that died necessarily there; we have +pitched upon the number of people there at a medium to be 488,055, nor +have we restrained them to 300,000, by allowing with Monsieur Auzout +6 heads for each of Moreri’s 50,000 houses or families.<br> +<br> +3. To Amsterdam we allow 187,350 souls, viz., 30 times the number +of their burials, which were 6,245 in the year 1685.<br> +<br> +4. To Venice we allow 134,000 souls, as found there in a special +account taken by authority, about ten years since, when the city abounded +with such as returned from Candia, then surrendered to the Turks.<br> +<br> +5. To Rome we allow 119,000 Christians, and 6,000 Jews, in all +125,000 souls, according to an account sent thither of the same by Monsieur +Auzout.<br> +<br> +6. To Dublin we allow (as to Amsterdam) 30 times its burials, +the medium whereof for the last two years is 2,303, viz., 69,090 souls.<br> +<br> +7. As to Bristol, we say that if the 6,400 houses of Dublin give +69,090 people, that the 5,307 houses of Bristol must give above 56,000 +people. Moreover, if the 29,325 hearths of Dublin give 69,090 +people, the 16,752 hearths of Bristol must give about 40,000; but the +medium of 56,000 and 40,000 is 48,000.<br> +<br> +8. As for Rouen, we have no help, but Monsieur Auzout’s +fancy of 80,000 souls to be in that city, and the conjecture of knowing +men that Rouen is between the one-seventh and one-eighth part of Paris, +and also that it is by a third bigger than Bristol; by all which, we +estimate, till farther light, that Rouen hath at most but 66,000 people +in it.<br> +<br> +Now it may be wondered why we mentioned Rouen at all, having had so +little knowledge of it; whereunto we answer, that we did not think it +just to compare London with Paris, as to shipping and foreign trade, +without adding Rouen thereunto, Rouen being to Paris as that part of +London which is below the bridge, is to what is above it.<br> +<br> +All which we heartily submit to the correction of the curious and candid, +in the meantime observing according to the gross numbers under-mentioned.<br> +<br> +<br> +<pre>London 696,000 +Paris 488,000 +Amsterdam 187,000 +Venice 134,000 +Rome 125,000 +Dublin 69,000 +Bristol 48,000 +Rouen 66,000 + + +</pre><i>Observations on the said Eight Cities.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i><pre>1. That the people of Paris being 488,000 + Rome 125,000 + Rouen 66,000 + do make in all but 679,000 + +</pre>or 17,000 less than the 696,000 of London alone.<br> +<br> +2. That the people of the two English cities and emporiums - viz., +of London, 696,000, and Bristol, 48,000 - do make 744,000, or more than<br> +<br> +<pre>In Paris 488,000 +Amsterdam 187,090 +Rouen 66,000 +Being in all 741,000 + +</pre>3. That the same two English cities seem equivalent<br> +<br> +<pre>To Paris, which hath 488,000 souls. + Rouen 66,000 + Lyons 100,000 + Toulouse 90,000 +In all 744,000 + +</pre>If there be any error in these conjectures concerning these cities +of France, we hope they will be mended by those whom we hear to be now +at work upon that matter.<br> +<br> +4. That the King of England’s three cities, viz.<br> +<br> +<pre>London 696,000 { Paris 488,000 +Dublin 69,000 exceed { Amsterdam 187,000 +Bristol 48,000 { Venice 134,000 +In all 813,000 Being but 809,000 + +</pre>5. That of the four great emporiums, London, Amsterdam, +Venice, and Rouen, London alone is near double to the other three, viz., +above 7 to 4.<br> +<br> +<pre>Amsterdam 187,000 } +Venice 134,000 } 387,000 +Rouen 66,000 } 2 + 774,000 London 696,000 + +</pre>6. That London, for aught appears, is the greatest and most +considerable city of the world, but manifestly the greatest emporium.<br> +<br> +When these assertions have passed the examen of the critics, we shall +make another essay, showing how to apply those truths to the honour +and profit of the King and Kingdom of England.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +THE FIFTH ESSAY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Concerning Holland and the rest of the United Provinces.<br> +<br> +</i>Since the close of this paper, it hath been objected from Holland, +that what hath been said of the number of houses and people in London +is not like to be true; for that if it were, then London would be the +two-thirds of the whole Province of Holland. To which is answered, +that London is the two-thirds of all Holland, and more, that province +having not 1,044,000 inhabitants (whereof 696,000 is the two-thirds), +nor above 800,000, as we have credibly and often heard. For suppose +Amsterdam hath - as we have elsewhere noted - 187,000, the seven next +great cities at 30,000 each, one with another, 210,000, the ten next +at 15,000 each 150,000, the ten smallest at 6,000 each 60,000 - in all, +the twenty-eight walled cities and towns of Holland 607,000; in the +dorps and villages 193,000, which is about one head for every four acres +of land; whereas in England there is eight acres for every head, without +the cities and market-towns.<br> +<br> +Now, suppose London, having 116,000 families, should have seven heads +in each - the medium between MM. Auzout’s and Grant’s reckonings +- the total of the people would be 812,000; or if we reckon that there +dies one out of thirty-four - the medium between thirty and thirty-seven +above mentioned - the total of the people would be thirty-four times +23,212, viz., 789,208, the medium between which number and the above +812,000 is 800,604, somewhat exceeding 800,000, the supposed number +of Holland.<br> +<br> +Furthermore, I say that upon former searches into the peopling of the +world, I never found that in any country - not in China itself - there +was more than one man to every English acre of land: many territories +passing for well-peopled where there is but one man for ten such acres. +I found by measuring Holland and West Frisia <i>(alias </i>North Holland) +upon the best maps, that it contained but as many such acres as London +doth of people, viz., about 696,000 acres. I therefore venture +to pronounce (till better informed) that the people of London are as +many as those of Holland, or at least above two-thirds of the same, +which is enough to disable the objection above mentioned; nor is there +any need to strain up London from 696,000 to 800,000, though competent +reasons have been given to that purpose, and though the author of the +excellent map of London, set forth A.D. 1682, reckoned the people thereof +(as by the said map appears) to be 1,200,000, even when he thought the +houses of the same to be but 85,000.<br> +<br> +The worthy person who makes this objection in the same letter also saith +-<br> +<br> +1. That the province of Holland hath as many people as the other +six united provinces together, and as the whole kingdom of England, +and double to the city of Paris and its suburbs; that is to say, 2,000,000 +souls. 2. He says that in London and Amsterdam, and other +trading cities, there are ten heads to every family, and that in Amsterdam +there are not 22,000 families. 3. He excepteth against the +register alleged by Monsieur Auzout, which makes 23,223 houses and above +80,000 families to be in Paris; as also against the register alleged +by Petty, making 105,315 houses to be in London, with a tenth part of +the same to be of families more than houses; and probably will except +against the register of 1,163 houses to be in all England, that number +giving, at six and one-third heads to each family, about 7,000,000 people, +upon all which we remark as follows, viz.:-<br> +<br> +1. That if Paris doth contain but 488,000 souls, that then all +Holland containeth but the double of that number, or 976,000, wherefore +London, containing 696,000 souls, hath above two-thirds of all Holland +by 46,000.<br> +<br> +2. If Paris containeth half as many people as there are in all +England, it must contain 3,500,000 souls, or above seven times 488,000; +and because there do not die 20,000 per annum out of Paris, there must +die but one out of 175; whereas Monsieur Auzout thinks that there dies +one out of 25, and there must live 149 heads in every house of Paris +mentioned in the register, but there must be scarce two heads in every +house of England, all which we think fit to be reconsidered.<br> +<br> +I must, as an Englishman, take notice of one point more, which is, that +these assertions do reflect upon the empire of England, for that it +is said that England hath but 2,000,000 inhabitants, and it might as +well have been added, that Scotland and Ireland, with the Islands of +Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, have but two-fifths of the same number, or +800,000 more, or that all the King of England’s subjects in Europe +are but 2,800,000 souls, whereas he saith that the subjects of the seven +united provinces are 4,000,000. To which we answer that the subjects +of the said seven provinces are, by this objector’s own showing, +but the quadruple of Paris, or 1,932,000 souls, Paris containing but +488,000, as afore hath been proved, and we do here affirm that England +hath 7,000,000 people, and that Scotland, Ireland, with the Islands +of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, hath two-fifths of the said number, or +2,800,000 more, in all 9,800,000; whereas by the objector’s doctrine, +if the seven provinces have 1,932,000 people, the King of England’s +territories should have but seven-tenths of the same number, viz., 1,351,000, +whereas we say 9,800,000, as aforesaid, which difference is so gross +as that it deserves to be thus reflected upon.<br> +<br> +To conclude, we expect from the concerned critics of the world that +they would prove -<br> +<br> +1. That Holland, and West Frisia, and the twenty-eight towns and +cities thereof, hath more people than London alone.<br> +<br> +2. That any three of the best cities of France, any two of all +Christendom, or any one of the world, hath the same, or better housing, +and more foreign trade than London, even in the year that King James +the Second came to the empire thereof.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Founded upon the Calculations of Gregory King, Lancaster Herald, +and forming part of </i>“<i>An Essay upon the Probable Methods +of making a People gainers in the Balance of Trade</i>.” +<i>Published in 1699.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>The writer of these papers has seen the natural and political observations +and conclusions upon the state and condition of England by Gregory King, +Esq., Lancaster Herald, in manuscript. The calculations therein +contained are very accurate, and more perhaps to be relied upon than +anything that has been ever done of the like kind. This skilful +and laborious gentleman has taken the right course to form his several +schemes about the numbers of the people, for besides many different +ways of working, he has very carefully inspected the poll-books, and +the distinctions made by those acts, and the produce in many of the +respective polls, going everywhere by reasonable and discreet mediums: +besides which pains, he has made observations of the very facts in particular +towns and places, from which he has been able to judge and conclude +more safely of others, so that he seems to have looked further into +this mystery than any other person.<br> +<br> +With his permission, we shall offer to the public such of his computations +as may be of use, and enlighten in the matter before us.<br> +<br> +He lays down that if the first peopling of England was by a colony or +colonies, consisting of a number between 100 and 1,000 people (which +seems probable), such colony or colonies might be brought over between +the year of the world 2400 and 2600, viz., about 800 or 900 years after +the Flood, and 1,400 or 1,500 years before the birth of Christ, at which +time the world might have about 1,000,000 families, and 4,000,000 or +5,000,000 people.<br> +<br> +From which hypothesis it will follow by an orderly series of increase +-<br> +<br> +That when the Romans invaded England fifty-three years before Christ’s +time, the kingdom might have about 360,000 people, and at Christ’s +birth about 400,000.<br> +<br> +That at the Norman Conquest, A.D. 1066, the kingdom might contain somewhat +above 2,000,000.<br> +<br> +That A.D. 1260, or about 200 years after the Norman Conquest, it might +contain about 2,750,000 people, or half the present number: so that +the people of England may have doubled in about 435 years last past.<br> +<br> +That in all probability the next doubling will be in about 600 years +to come, viz., by the year 2300, at which time it may have about 11,000,000 +people, and the kingdom containing about 39,000,000 of acres, there +will be then about three acres and a half per head.<br> +<br> +That the increase of the kingdom for every hundred years of the last +preceding term of doubling, and the subsequent term of doubling, may +have been and in all probability may be, according to the following +scheme:-<br> +<br> +<br> +<pre>Anno Number of Increase every +Domini. people. hundred years. +1300 2,800,000 +1400 3,300,000 440,000. +1500 3,840,000 540,000. +1600 4,620,000 780,000. +1700 5,500,000 880,000. +1800 6,420,000 920,000. +1900 7,350,000 930,000. +2000 8,280,000 930,000. +2100 9,205,000 925,000. +2200 10,115,000 910,000. +2300 11,000,000 885,000. + +</pre>Whereby it may appear that the increase of the kingdom being 880,000 +people in the last hundred years, and 920,000 in the next succeeding +hundred years, the annual increase at this time may be about 9,000 souls +per annum.<br> +<br> +<pre>But whereas the yearly births of the + kingdom are about 1 in 28.95, or 190,000 souls. +And the yearly burials 1 in 32.35 or 170,000 souls. +Whereby the yearly increase would be 20,000 souls. + +It is to be noted - Per ann. + +1. That the allowance for + plagues and great mortalities + may come to at a medium 4,000 +2. Foreign or civil wars at a + medium 3,500 +3. The sea constantly employing 11,000 per annum. + about 40,000, may precipitate 2,500 + the death of about +4. The plantations (over and above + the accession of foreigners) 1,000 + may carry away +Whereby the net annual increase may +be but 9,000 souls. + +</pre>That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the annual increase +of the kingdom by procreation, were it not for the before-mentioned +abatements.<br> +<br> +<pre>The country increases annually + by procreation 20,000 souls. +The cities and towns, exclusive + of London, by procreation 2,000 souls. +But London and the bills of + mortality decrease annually 2,000 souls. + + +</pre>So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls per annum to keep +it from decreasing, besides a further supply of about 3,000 per annum +for its increase at this time. In all 5,000, or above a half of +the kingdom’s net increase.<br> +<br> +Mr. King further observes that by the assessments on marriages, births, +and burials, and the collectors’ returns thereupon, and by the +parish registers, it appears that the proportions of marriages, births, +and burials are according to the following scheme<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Vide</i> Scheme A.<br> +<br> +<br> +Whence it may be observed that in 10,000 coexisting persons there are +71 or 72 marriages in the country, producing 343 children; 78 marriages +in towns producing 351 children; 94 marriages in London, producing 376 +children.<br> +<br> +Whereby it follows -<br> +<br> +1. That though each marriage in London produces fewer people than +in the country, yet London in general having a greater proportion of +breeders, is more prolific than the other great towns, and the great +towns are more prolific than the country.<br> +<br> +2. That if the people of London of all ages were as long-lived +as those in the country, London would increase in people much faster +<i>pro rata </i>than the country.<br> +<br> +3. That the reasons why each marriage in London produces fewer +children than the country marriages seem to be -<br> +<br> +(1) From the more frequent fornications and adulteries.<br> +<br> +(2) From a greater luxury and intemperance.<br> +<br> +(3) From a greater intentness on business.<br> +<br> +(4) From the unhealthfulness of the coal smoke.<br> +<br> +(5) From a greater inequality of age between the husbands and wives.<br> +<br> +(6) From the husbands and wives not living so long as in the country.<br> +<br> +He further observes, accounting the people to be 5,500,000, that the +said five millions and a half (including the transitory people and vagrants) +appear by the assessments on marriages, births, and burials, to bear +the following proportions in relation to males and females, and other +distinctions of the people, viz.:-<br> +<br> +<br> +<pre>SCHEMA A + + +People Annual Marriages Producing + children + In all each + +530,000 London and bills of mortality 1 in 106 5,000 4.0 +870,000 The cities and market towns 1 in 128 6,800 4.5 +4,100,000 The villages and hamlets 1 in 141 29,200 4.8 +5,500,000 1 in 134 41,000 4.64 + + Annual Births Annual Burials + In all In all +London and bills of mortality 1 in 26½ 20,000 1 in 24.1 22,000 +The cities and market towns 1 in 28½ 30,600 1 in 30.4 28,600 +The villages and hamlets 1 in 29.4 29,200 1 in 34.4 119,400 + 1 in 28.95 190,000 1 in 32.35 170,000 + + +</pre><i>Vide </i>Scheme B.<br> +<br> +<br> +So that the number of communicants is in all 3,260,000 souls; and the +number of fighting men between sixteen and sixty is 1,308,000.<br> +<br> +SCHEME B.<br> +<br> + <pre>Males Females Males Females Both +In London and 10 to 13 230,000 300,000 530,000 + bills of mortality +In the other cities 8 to 9 410,000 460,000 870,000 + and market-towns +In the villages and 100 to 99 2,060,000 2,040,000 4,100,000 + hamlets + 27 to 28 2,700,000 2,800,000 5,500,000 + +</pre><i>That as to other distinctions they appear by the said assessments +to bear these proportions.<br> +<br> + </i><pre>People. Males. Females. +Husbands and wives 1,900,000 950,000 950,000 + at above, 34½% +Widowers at above 1½% 90,000 90,000 +Widows at about 4½% 240,000 240,000 +Children at above 45% 2,500,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 +Servants at about 10½% 560,000 260,000 300,000 +Sojourners and + single persons 4% 210,000 100,000 110,000 + 100% 5,500,000 2,700,000 2,800,000 + +</pre><i>And that the different proportions in each of the said articles +between London, the great towns, and the villages, may the better appear, +he has formed the following scheme:-<br> +<br> + </i><pre>London and Bills The other Cities The Villages and + of Mortality. and great Towns. Hamlets. + Souls. Souls. Souls. +Husbands +and +Wives 37% 196,100 36% 313,200 34% 1,394,000 +Widowers 2% 10,600 2% 17,400 1½% 61,500 +Widows 7% 37,100 6% 52,200 4½% 184,500 +Children 33% 174,900 40% 348,000 47% 1,927,000 +Servants 13% 68,900 11% 95,700 10% 410,000 +Sojourners 8% 42,400 5% 43,500 3% 123,000 + 100% 530,000 100% 870,000 100% 4,100,000 + + +</pre>SCHEME B (Continued)<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>He further observes, supposing the people to be 5,500,000, that the +yearly births of the Kingdom may be 190,000, and that the several ages +of the people may be as follows</i>:<br> +<br> +<br> + <pre>In all Males Females +Those under 1 years old 170,000 88,500 81,500 +Those under 5 years old 820,000 413,300 406,700 +Those under 10 years old 1,520,000 762,900 757,100 +Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 1,578,000 1,682,000 +Those above 21 years old 2,700,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 +Those above 25 years old 2,400,000 1,152,000 1,248,000 +Those above 60 years old 600,000 270,000 330,000 +Those under 16 years old 2,240,000 +Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 +Total of the people 5,500,000 + + +</pre>That the bachelors are about 28 per cent. of the whole, whereof +those under twenty-five years are 25½ per cent., and those above +twenty-five years are 2½ per cent.<br> +<br> +That the maidens are about 28½ per cent. of the whole.<br> +<br> +Whereof those under 25 years are 26½ per cent.<br> +<br> +And those above 25 years are 2 per cent.<br> +<br> +That the males and females in the kingdom in general are aged, one with +another, 27 years and a half.<br> +<br> +That in the kingdom in general there is near as many people living under +20 years of age as there is above 20, whereof half of the males are +under 19, and one half of the females are under 21 years.<br> +<br> +That the ages of the people, according to their several distinctions, +are as follows, viz.:-<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Vide </i>Scheme C.<br> +<br> +<br> +Having thus stated the numbers of the people, he gives a scheme of the +income and expense of the several families of England, calculated for +the year 1688.<br> +<br> +SCHEME C<br> +<br> +<br> +<pre>The husbands are aged 43 years apiece, which, at 17¼%, makes 742 years. +The wives 40 17¼% 690 +The widowers 56 1½% 84 +The widows 60 4½% 270 +The children 12 45% 540 +The servants 27 10½% 284 +The sojourners 35 4% 140 +At a medium 27½ 100 2,750 + + + +</pre><i>Vide </i>Scheme D.<br> +<br> +<br> +Mr. King’s modesty has been so far overruled as to suffer us to +communicate these his excellent computations, which we can the more +safely commend, having examined them very carefully, tried them by some +little operations of our own upon the same subject, and compared them +with the schemes of other persons, who take pleasure in the like studies.<br> +<br> +What he says concerning the number of the people to be 5,500,000 is +no positive assertion, nor shall we pretend anywhere to determine in +that matter; what he lays down is by way of hypothesis, that supposing +the inhabitants of England to have been, A.D. 1300, 2,860,000 heads, +by the orderly series of increase allowed of by all writers they may +probably be about A.D. 1700, 5,500,000 heads; but if they were A.D. +1300 either less or more, the case must proportionably alter; for as +to his allowances for plagues, great mortalities, civil wars, the sea, +and the plantations, they seem very reasonable, and not well to be controverted.<br> +<br> +Upon these schemes of Mr. King we shall make several remarks, though +the text deserves much a better comment.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<pre>SCHEME D. - A SCHEME OF THE INCOME AND EXPENSE OF THE SEVERAL + FAMILIES OF ENGLAND, CALCULATED FOR THE YEAR + 1688 +Number of Ranks, Degrees and Heads per + Families. Qualifications Family. + 160 Temporal Lords 40 + 26 Spiritual Lords 20 + 800 Baronets 16 + 600 Knights 13 + 3,000 Esquires 10 + 12,000 Gentlemen 8 + 5,000 Persons in greater offices and places 8 + 5,000 Persons in lesser offices and places 6 + 2,000 Eminent merchants and traders by sea 8 + 8,000 Lesser merchants and traders by sea 6 + 10,000 Persons in the law 7 + 2,000 Eminent clergymen 6 + 8,000 Lesser clergymen 5 + 40,000 Freeholders of the better sort 7 + 120,000 Freeholders of the lesser sort 5½ + 150,000 Farmers 5 + 15,000 Persons in liberal arts and sciences 5 + 50,000 Shopkeepers and tradesmen 4½ + 60,000 Artisans and handicrafts 4 + 5,000 Naval officers 4 + 4,000 Military officers 4 + 500,586 5.33 + 50,000 Common seamen 3 + 364,000 Labouring people and out-servants 3½ + 400,000 Cottagers and paupers 3¼ + 35,000 Common soldiers 2 + 849,000 + Vagrants, as gipsies, thieves, + beggars, &c. 3¼ + 500,586 Increasing the wealth of the kingdom 5.33 + 849,000 Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom 3¼ +1,349,586 Net totals 4 1/13 + + +</pre>[The previous table continues but is too wide for the page. +It has been split down the middle - DP.]<br> +<br> +<br> + <pre>Number Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly + of Income Income Income Expense Increase Incr. + Persons per. in per. per per. in + Family general Hd. Hd. Hd. General + £ s. £ £ s. £ s. d. £ s. d. £ + 6,400 3,200 0 512,000 80 0 70 0 0 10 0 0 64,000 + 520 1,300 0 33,800 65 0 45 0 0 20 0 0 10,400 + 12,800 880 0 704,000 55 0 49 0 0 6 0 0 76,800 + 7,800 650 0 390,000 50 0 45 0 0 5 0 0 39,000 + 30,000 450 0 1,200,000 45 0 41 0 0 4 0 0 120,000 + 96,000 280 0 2,880,000 35 0 32 0 0 3 0 0 288,000 + 40,000 240 0 1,200,000 30 0 26 0 0 4 0 0 160,000 + 30,000 120 0 600,000 20 0 17 0 0 3 0 0 90,000 + 16,000 400 0 800,000 50 0 37 0 0 13 0 0 208,000 + 48,000 198 0 1,600,000 33 0 27 0 0 6 0 0 288,000 + 70,000 154 0 1,540,000 22 0 18 0 0 4 0 0 280,000 + 12,000 72 0 144,000 12 0 10 0 0 2 0 0 24,000 + 40,000 50 0 400,000 10 0 9 4 0 0 16 0 32,000 + 280,000 91 0 3,640,000 13 0 11 15 0 1 5 0 350,000 + 660,000 55 0 6,600,000 10 0 9 10 0 0 10 0 330,000 + 750,000 42 10 6,375,000 8 10 8 5 0 0 5 0 187,500 + 75,000 60 0 900,000 12 0 11 0 0 1 0 0 75,000 + 225,000 45 0 2,250,000 10 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 225,000 + 240,000 38 0 2,280,000 9 10 9 0 0 0 10 0 120,000 + 20,000 80 0 400,000 20 0 18 0 0 2 0 0 40,000 + 16,000 60 0 240,000 15 0 14 0 0 1 0 0 16,000 +2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 l1 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700 + Decrease.Decrease. + 150,000 20 0 1,000,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 75,000 +1,275,000 15 0 5,460,000 4 10 4 12 0 0 2 0 127,500 +1,300,000 6 10 2,000,000 2 0 2 5 0 0 5 0 325,000 + 70,000 14 0 490,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 35,000 +2,795,000 10 10 8,950,000 3 5 3 9 0 0 4 0 562,500 + 30,000 60,000 2 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 60,000 + So the General Account is +2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 11 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700 +2,825,000 10 10 9,010,000 3 3 3 7 6 0 4 6 622,500 +5,500,520 32 5 43,491,800 7 18 7 9 3 0 8 9 2,401,200 + +</pre>The people being the first matter of power and wealth, by whose +labour and industry a nation must be gainers in the balance, their increase +or decrease must be carefully observed by any government that designs +to thrive; that is, their increase must be promoted by good conduct +and wholesome laws, and if they have been decreased by war, or any other +accident, the breach is to be made up as soon as possible, for it is +a maim in the body politic affecting all its parts.<br> +<br> +Almost all countries in the world have been more or less populous, as +liberty and property have been there well or ill secured. The +first constitution of Rome was no ill-founded government, a kingly power +limited by laws; and the people increased so fast, that, from a small +beginning, in the reign of their sixth king were they able to send out +an army of 80,000 men. And in the time of the commonwealth, in +that invasion which the Gauls made upon Italy, not long before Hannibal +came thither, they were grown so numerous, as that their troops consisted +of 700,000 foot and 70,000 horse; it is true their allies were comprehended +in this number, but the ordinary people fit to bear arms being mustered +in Rome and Campania, amounted to 250,000 foot and 23,000 horse.<br> +<br> +Nothing, therefore, can more contribute to the rendering England populous +and strong than to have liberty upon a right footing, and our legal +constitution firmly preserved. A nation may be as well called +free under a limited kingship as in a commonwealth, and it is to this +good form of our government that we partly owe that doubling of the +people which has probably happened here in the 435 years last past. +And if the ambition of some, and the mercenary temper of others, should +bring us at any time to alter our constitution, and to give up our ancient +rights, we shall find our numbers diminish visibly and fast. For +liberty encourages procreation, and not only keeps our own inhabitants +among us, but invites strangers to come and live under the shelter of +our laws.<br> +<br> +The Romans, indeed, made use of an adventitious help to enlarge their +city, which was by incorporating foreign cities and nations into their +commonwealth; but this way is not without its mischiefs. For the +strangers in Rome by degrees had grown so numerous, and to have so great +a vote in the councils, that the whole Government began to totter, and +decline from its old to its new inhabitants, which Fabius the censor +observing, he applied a remedy in time by reducing all the new citizens +into four tribes, that being contracted into so narrow a space, they +might not have so malignant an influence upon the city.<br> +<br> +An Act of general naturalisation would likewise probably increase our +numbers very fast, and repair what loss we may have suffered in our +people by the late war. It is a matter that has been very warmly +contended for by many good patriots; but peradventure it carries also +its danger with it, which perhaps would have the less influence by this +expedient, namely, if an Act of Parliament were made, that no heads +of families hereafter to be naturalised for the first generation, should +have votes in any of our elections. But as the case stands, it +seems against the nature of right government that strangers (who may +be spies, and who may have an interest opposite to that of England, +and who at best ever join in one link of obsequiousness to the Ministers) +should be suffered to intermeddle in that important business of sending +members to Parliament. From their sons indeed there is less to +fear, who by birth and nature may come to have the same interest and +inclinations as the natives.<br> +<br> +And though the expedient of Fabius Maximus, to contract the strangers +into four tribes, might be reasonable where the affairs of a whole empire +were transacted by magistrates chosen in one city, yet the same policy +may not hold good in England; foreigners cannot influence elections +here by being dispersed about in the several counties of the kingdom, +where they can never come to have any considerable strength. But +some time or other they may endanger the government by being suffered +to remain, such vast numbers of them here in London where they inhabit +altogether, at least 30,000 persons in two quarters of the town, without +intermarrying with the English, or learning our language, by which means +for several years to come they are in a way still to continue foreigners, +and perhaps may have a foreign interest and foreign inclinations; to +permit this cannot be advisable or safe. It may therefore be proper +to limit any new Acts of naturalisation with such restrictions as may +make the accession of strangers not dangerous to the public.<br> +<br> +An accession of strangers, well regulated, may add to our strength and +numbers; but then it must be composed of labouring men, artificers, +merchants, and other rich men, and not of foreign soldiers, since such +fright and drive away from a nation more people than their troops can +well consist of: for if it has been ever seen that men abound most where +there is most freedom (China excepted, whose climate excels all others, +and where the exercise of the tyranny is mild and easy) it must follow +that people will in time desert those countries whose best flower is +their liberties, if those liberties are thought precarious or in danger. +That foreign soldiers are dangerous to liberty, we may produce examples +from all countries and all ages; but we shall instance only one, because +it is eminent above all the rest.<br> +<br> +The Carthaginians, in their wars, did very much use mercenary and foreign +troops; and when the peace was made between them and the Romans, after +a long dispute for the dominion of Sicily, they brought their army home +to be paid and disbanded, which Gesco, their General, had the charge +of embarking, who did order all his part with great dexterity and wisdom. +But the State of Carthage wanting money to clear arrears, and satisfy +the troops, was forced to keep them up longer than was designed. +The army consisted of Gauls, Ligurians, Baleareans, and Greeks. +At first they were insolent in their quarters in Carthage, and were +prevailed upon to remove to Sicca, where they were to remain and expect +their pay. There they grew presently corrupted with ease and pleasure, +and fell into mutinies and disorder, and to making extravagant demands +of pay and gratuities; and in a rage, with their arms in their hands, +they marched 20,000 of them towards Carthage, encamping within fifteen +miles of the city; and chose Spendius and Matho, two profligate wretches, +for their leaders, and imprisoned Gesco, who was deputed to them from +the commonwealth. Afterwards they caused almost all the Africans, +their tributaries, to revolt; they grew in a short time to be 70,000 +strong; they fought several battles with Hanno and Hamilcar Barcas. +During these transactions, the mercenaries that were in garrison in +Sardinia mutinied likewise, murdering their commander and all the Carthaginians; +while Spendius and Matho, to render their accomplices more desperate, +put Gesco to a cruel death, presuming afterwards to lay siege to Carthage +itself. They met with a shock indeed at Prion, where 40,000 of +them were slaughtered; but soon after this battle, in another they took +one of the Carthaginian generals prisoner, whom they fixed to a cross, +crucifying thirty of the principal senators round about him. Spendius +and Matho were at last taken, the one crucified and the other tormented +to death: but the war lasted three years and near four months with excessive +cruelty; in which the State of Carthage lost several battles, and was +often brought within a hair’s-breadth of utter ruin.<br> +<br> +If so great a commonwealth as Carthage, though assisted at that time +by Hiero, King of Syracuse, and by the Romans, ran the hazard of losing +their empire, city, and liberties, by the insurrection of a handful +of mercenaries, whose first strength was but 20,000 men; it should be +a warning to all free nations how they suffer armies so composed to +be among them, and it should frighten a wise State from desiring such +an increase of people as may be had by the bringing over foreign soldiers.<br> +<br> +Indeed, all armies whatsoever, if they are over-large, tend to the dispeopling +of a country, of which our neighbour nation is a sufficient proof, where +in one of the best climates in Europe men are wanting to till the ground. +For children do not proceed from the intemperate pleasures taken loosely +and at random, but from a regular way of living, where the father of +the family desires to rear up and provide for the offspring he shall +beget.<br> +<br> +Securing the liberties of a nation may be laid down as a fundamental +for increasing the numbers of its people; but there are other polities +thereunto conducing which no wise State has ever neglected.<br> +<br> +No race of men did multiply so fast as the Jews, which may be attributed +chiefly to the wisdom of Moses their Lawgiver, in contriving to promote +the state of marriage.<br> +<br> +The Romans had the same care, paying no respect to a man childless by +his own fault, and giving great immunities and privileges, both in the +city and provinces, to those who had such and such a number of children. +Encouragements of the like kind are also given in France to such as +enrich the commonwealth by a large issue.<br> +<br> +But we in England have taken another course, laying a fine upon the +marriage bed, which seems small to those who only contemplate the pomp +and wealth round about them, and in their view; but they who look into +all the different ranks of men are well satisfied that this duty on +marriages and births is a very grievous burden upon the poorer sort, +whose numbers compose the strength and wealth of any nation. This +tax was introduced by the necessity of affairs. It is difficult +to say what may be the event of a new thing; but if we are to take measures +from past wisdom, which exempted prolific families from public duties, +we should not lay impositions upon those who find it hard enough to +maintain themselves. If this tax be such a weight upon the poor +as to discourage marriage and hinder propagation, which seems the truth, +no doubt it ought to be abolished; and at a convenient time we ought +to change it for some other duty, if there were only this single reason, +that it is so directly opposite to the polity of all ages and all countries.<br> +<br> +In order to have hands to carry on labour and manufactures, which must +make us gainers in the balance of trade, we ought not to deter, but +rather invite men to marry, which is to be done by privileges and exemptions +for such a number of children, and by denying certain offices of trust +and dignities to all unmarried persons; and where it is once made a +fashion among those of the better sort, it will quickly obtain with +the lower degree.<br> +<br> +Mr. King, in his scheme (for which he has as authentic grounds as perhaps +the matter is capable of) lays down that the annual marriages of England +are about 41,000, which is one marriage out of every 134 persons. +Upon which, we observe, that this is not a due proportion, considering +how few of our adult males (in comparison with other countries) perish +by war or any other accident; from whence may be inferred that our polity +is some way or other defective, or the marriages would bear a nearer +proportion with the gross number of our people; for which defect, if +a remedy can be found, there will be so much more strength added to +the kingdom.<br> +<br> +From the books of assessment on births, marriages, &c., by the nearest +view he can make, he divides the 5,500,000 people into 2,700,000 males +and 2,800,000 females; from whence (considering the females exceed the +males in number, and considering that the men marry later than women, +and that many of the males are of necessity absent in the wars, at sea, +and upon other business) it follows that a large proportion of the females +remain unmarried, though at an adult age, which is a dead loss to the +nation, every birth being as so much certain treasure, upon which account +such laws must be for the public good, as induce all men to marry whose +circumstances permit it.<br> +<br> +From his division of the people it may be likewise observed, that the +near proportion there is between the males and females (which is said +to hold also in other places) is an argument (and the strongest that +can be produced) against polygamy, and the increase of mankind which +some think might be from thence expected; for if Nature had intended +to one man a plurality of wives, she would have ordered a great many +more female births than male, her designments being always right and +wise.<br> +<br> +The securing the parish for bastard children is become so small a punishment +and so easily compounded, that it very much hinders marriage. +The Dutch compel men of all ranks to marry the woman whom they have +got with child, and perhaps it would tend to the further peopling of +England if the common people here, under such a certain degree, were +condemned by some new law to suffer the same penalty.<br> +<br> +A country that makes provision to increase in inhabitants, whose situation +is good, and whose people have a genius adapted to trade, will never +fail to be gainers in the balance, provided the labour and industry +of their people be well managed and carefully directed.<br> +<br> +The more any man contemplates these matters the more he will come to +be of opinion, that England is capable of being rendered one of the +strongest nations, and the richest spot of ground in Europe.<br> +<br> +It is not extent of territory that makes a country powerful, but numbers +of men well employed, convenient ports, a good navy, and a soil producing +all sort of commodities. The materials for all this we have, and +so improvable, that if we did but second the gifts of Nature with our +own industry we should soon arrive to a pitch of greatness that would +put us at least upon an equal footing with any of our neighbours.<br> +<br> +If we had the complement of men our land can maintain and nourish; if +we had as much trade as our stock and knowledge in sea affairs is capable +of embracing; if we had such a naval strength as a trade so extended +would easily produce; and, if we had those stores and that wealth which +is the certain result of a large and well-governed traffic, what human +strength could hurt or invade us? On the contrary, should we not +be in a posture not only to resist but to give the law to others?<br> +<br> +Our neighbouring commonwealth has not in territory above 8,000,000 acres, +and perhaps not much above 2,200,000 people, and yet what a figure have +they made in Europe for these last 100 years? What wars have they +maintained? What forces have they resisted? and to what a height +of power are they now come, and all by good order and wise government?<br> +<br> +They are liable to frequent invasions; they labour under the inconvenience +and danger of bad ports; they consume immense sums every year to defend +their land against the sea; all which difficulties they have subdued +by an unwearied industry.<br> +<br> +We are fenced by nature against foreign enemies, our ports are safe, +we fear no irruptions of the sea, our land territory at home is at least +39,000,000 acres. We have in all likelihood not less than 5,500,000 +people. What a nation might we then become, if all these advantages +were thoroughly improved, and if a right application were made of all +this strength and of these numbers?<br> +<br> +They who apprehend the immoderate growth of any prince or State may, +perhaps, succeed by beginning first, and by attempting to pull down +such a dangerous neighbour, but very often their good designs are disappointed. +In all appearance they proceed more safely, who, under such a fear, +make themselves strong and powerful at home. And this was the +course which Philip, King of Macedon, the father of Perseus, took, when +he thought to be invaded by the Romans.<br> +<br> +The greatness of Rome gave Carthage very anxious thoughts, and it rather +seems that they entered into the second Punic War more for fear the +Romans should have the universal empire, than out of any ambition to +lord it themselves over the whole world. Their design was virtuous, +and peradventure wise to endeavour at some early interruption to a rival +that grew so fast. However, we see they miscarried, though their +armies were led by Hannibal. But fortune which had determined +the dominion of the earth for Rome, did, perhaps, lead them into the +fatal counsel of passing the Eber contrary to the articles of peace +concluded with Asdrubal, and of attacking Saguntum before they had sufficiently +recovered of the wounds they had suffered in the wars about Sicily, +Sardinia, and with their own rebels. If the high courage of Hannibal +had not driven the commonwealth into a new war while it was yet faint +and weak, and if they had been suffered to pursue their victories in +Spain, and to get firm footing in that rich, warlike, and then populous +country, very probably in a few years they might have been a more equal +match for the Roman people. It is true, if the Romans had endeavoured, +at the conquest of Spain, and if they had disturbed the Carthaginians +in that country, the war must have been unavoidable, because it was +evident in that age, and will be apparent in the times we live in, that +whatever foreign power, already grown great, can add to its dominion +the possession of Spain, will stand fair for universal empire.<br> +<br> +But unless some such cogent reason of state, as is here instanced, intervene, +in all appearance the best way for a nation that apprehends the growing +power of any neighbour is to fortify itself within; we do not mean by +land armies, which rather debilitate than strengthen a country, but +by potent navies, by thrift in the public treasure, care of the people’s +trade, and all the other honest and useful arts of peace.<br> +<br> +By such an improvement of our native strength, agreeable to the laws +and to the temper of a free nation, England without doubt may be brought +to so good a posture and condition of defending itself, as not to apprehend +any neighbour jealous of its strength or envious of its greatness.<br> +<br> +And to this end we open these schemes, that a wise Government under +which we live, not having any designs to become arbitrary, may see what +materials they have to work upon, and how far our native wealth is able +to second their good intentions of preserving us a rich and a free people.<br> +<br> +Having said something of the number of our inhabitants, we shall proceed +to discourse of their different degrees and ranks, and to examine who +are a burden and who are a profit to the public, for by how much every +part and member of the commonwealth can be made useful to the whole, +by so much a nation will be more and more a gainer in this balance of +trade which we are to treat of.<br> +<br> +Mr. King, from the assessments on births and marriages, and from the +polls, has formed the scheme here inserted, of the ranks, degrees, titles +and qualifications of the people. He has done it so judiciously, +and upon such grounds, that is well worth the careful perusal of any +curious person, from thence we shall make some observations in order +to put our present matter in a clearer light.<br> +<br> +First, this scheme detects their error, who in the calculation they +frame contemplate nothing but the wealth and plenty they see in rich +cities and great towns, and from thence make a judgment of the kingdom’s +remaining part, and from this view conclude that taxes and payments +to the public do mostly arise from the gentry and better sort, by which +measures they neither contrive their imposition aright, nor are they +able to give a true estimate what it shall produce; but when we have +divided the inhabitants of England into their proper classes, it will +appear that the nobility and gentry are but a small part of the whole +body of the people.<br> +<br> +Believing that taxes fell chiefly upon the better sort, they care not +what they lay, as thinking they will not be felt; but when they come +to be levied, they either fall short, and so run the public into an +immense debt, or they light so heavily upon the poorer sort, as to occasion +insufferable clamours; and they, whose proper business it was to contrive +these matters better have been so unskilful, that the legislative power +has been more than once compelled for the peoples’ ease to give +new funds, instead of others that had been ill projected.<br> +<br> +This may be generally said, that all duties whatsoever upon the consumption +of a large produce, fall with the greatest weight upon the common sort, +so that such as think in new duties that they chiefly tax the rich will +find themselves quite mistaken; for either their fund must yield little, +or it must arise from the whole body of the people, of which the richer +sort are but a small proportion.<br> +<br> +And though war, and national debts and engagements, might heretofore +very rationally plead for excises upon our home consumption, yet now +there is a peace, it is the concern of every man that loves his country +to proceed warily in laying new ones, and to get off those which are +already laid as fast as ever he can. High customs and high excises +both together are incompatible, either of them alone are to be endured, +but to have them co-exist is suffered in no well-governed nation. +If materials of foreign growth were at an easy rate, a high price might +be the better borne in things of our own product, but to have both dear +at once (and by reason of the duties laid upon them) is ruinous to the +inferior rank of men, and this ought to weigh more with us, when we +consider that even of the common people a subdivision is to be made, +of which one part subsist from their own havings, arts, labour, and +industry; and the other part subsist a little from their own labour, +but chiefly from the help and charity of the rank that is above them. +For according to Mr. King’s scheme -<br> +<br> +The nobility and gentry, with their families and retainers, the persons +in offices, merchants, persons in the law, the clergy, freeholders, +farmers, persons in sciences and liberal arts, shopkeepers, and tradesmen, +handicrafts, men, naval officers, with the families and dependants upon +all these altogether, make up the number of 2,675,520 heads.<br> +<br> +The common seamen, common soldiers, labouring people, and out-servants, +cottagers, paupers, and their families, with the vagrants, make up the +number of 2,825,000 heads.<br> +<br> +In all 5,500,520 heads.<br> +<br> +So that here seems a majority of the people, whose chief dependence +and subsistence is from the other part, which majority is much greater, +in respect of the number of families, because 500,000 families contribute +to the support of 850,000 families. In contemplation of which, +great care should be taken not to lay new duties upon the home consumption, +unless upon the extremest necessities of the State; for though such +impositions cannot be said to fall directly upon the lower rank, whose +poverty hinders them from consuming such materials (though there are +few excises to which the meanest person does not pay something), yet +indirectly, and by unavoidable consequences, they are rather more affected +by high duties upon our home-consumption than the wealthier degree of +people, and so we shall find the case to be, if we look carefully into +all the distinct ranks of men there enumerated.<br> +<br> +First, as to the nobility and gentry, they must of necessity retrench +their families and expenses, if excessive impositions are laid upon +all sorts of materials for consumption, from whence follows, that the +degree below them of merchants, shopkeepers, tradesmen, and artisans, +must want employment.<br> +<br> +Secondly, as to the manufactures, high excises in time of peace are +utterly destructive to that principal part of England’s wealth; +for if malt, coals, salt, leather, and other things, bear a great price, +the wages of servants, workmen, and artificers, will consequently rise, +for the income must bear some proportion with the expense; and if such +as set the poor to work find wages for labour or manufacture advance +upon them, they must rise in the price of their commodity, or they cannot +live, all which would signify little, if nothing but our own dealings +among one another were thereby affected; but it has a consequence far +more pernicious in relation to our foreign trade, for it is the exportation +of our own product that must make England rich; to be gainers in the +balance of trade, we must carry out of our own product what will purchase +the things of foreign growth that are needful for our own consumption, +with some overplus either in bullion or goods to be sold in other countries, +which overplus is the profit a nation makes by trade, and it is more +or less according to the natural frugality of the people that export, +or as from the low price of labour and manufacture they can afford the +commodity cheap, and at a rate not to be undersold in foreign markets. +The Dutch, whose labour and manufactures are dear by reason of home +excises, can notwithstanding sell cheap abroad, because this disadvantage +they labour under is balanced by the parsimonious temper of their people; +but in England, where this frugality is hardly to be introduced, if +the duties upon our home consumption are so large as to raise considerably +the price of labour and manufacture, all our commodities for exportation +must by degrees so advance in the prime value, that they cannot be sold +at a rate which will give them vent in foreign markets, and we must +be everywhere undersold by our wiser neighbours. But the consequence +of such duties in times of peace will fall most heavily upon our woollen +manufactures, of which most have more value from the workmanship than +the material; and if the price of this workmanship be enhanced, it will +in a short course of time put a necessity upon those we deal with of +setting up manufactures of their own, such as they can, or of buying +goods of the like kind and use from nations that can afford them cheaper. +And in this point we are to consider, that the bulk of our woollen exports +does not consist in draperies made of the fine wool, peculiar to our +soil, but is composed of coarse broad cloths, such as Yorkshire cloths, +kerseys, which make a great part of our exports, and may be, and are +made of a coarser wool, which is to be had in other countries. +So that we are not singly to value ourselves upon the material, but +also upon the manufacture, which we should make as easy as we can, by +not laying over-heavy burdens upon the manufacturer. And our woollen +goods being two-thirds of our foreign exports, it ought to be the chief +object of the public care, if we expect to be gainers in the balance +of trade, which is what we hunt after in these inquiries.<br> +<br> +Thirdly, as to the lower rank of all, which we compute at 2,825,000 +heads, a majority of the whole people, their principal subsistence is +upon the degrees above them, and if those are rendered uneasy these +must share in the calamity, but even of this inferior sort no small +proportion contribute largely to excises, as labourers and out-servants, +which likewise affect the common seamen, who must thereupon raise their +wages or they will not have wherewithal to keep their families left +at home, and the high wages of seamen is another burden upon our foreign +traffic. As to the cottagers, who are about a fifth part of the +whole people, some duties reach even them, as those upon malt, leather, +and salt, but not much because of their slender consumption, but if +the gentry, upon whose woods and gleanings they live, and who employ +them in day labour, and if the manufacturers, for whom they card and +spin, are overburdened with duties, they cannot afford to give them +so much for their labour and handiwork, nor to yield them those other +reliefs which are their principal subsistence, for want of which these +miserable wretches must perish with cold and hunger.<br> +<br> +Thus we see excises either directly or indirectly fall upon the whole +body of the people, but we do not take notice of these matters as receding +from our former opinion. On the contrary, we still think them +the most easy and equal way of taxing a nation, and perhaps it is demonstrable +that if we had fallen into this method at the beginning of the war of +raising the year’s expense within the year by excises, England +had not been now indebted so many millions, but what was advisable under +such a necessity and danger is not to be pursued in times of peace, +especially in a country depending so much upon trade and manufactures.<br> +<br> +Our study now ought to be how those debts may be speedily cleared off, +for which these new revenues are the funds, that trade may again move +freely as it did heretofore, without such a heavy clog; but this point +we shall more amply handle when we come to speak of our payments to +the public.<br> +<br> +Mr. King divides the whole body of the people into two principal classes, +viz.:-<br> +<br> +Increasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,675,520 heads.<br> +Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,825,000 heads.<br> +<br> +By which he means that the first class of the people from land, arts, +and industry maintain themselves, and add every year something to the +nation’s general stock, and besides this, out of their superfluity, +contribute every year so much to the maintenance of others.<br> +<br> +That of the second class some partly maintain themselves by labour (as +the heads of the cottage families), but that the rest, as most of the +wives and children of these, sick and impotent people, idle beggars +and vagrants, are nourished at the cost of others, and are a yearly +burden to the public, consuming annually so much as would be otherwise +added to the nation’s general stock.<br> +<br> +The bodies of men are, without doubt, the most valuable treasure of +a country, and in their sphere the ordinary people are as serviceable +to the commonwealth as the rich if they are employed in honest labour +and useful arts, and such being more in number do more contribute to +increase the nation’s wealth than the higher rank.<br> +<br> +But a country may be populous and yet poor (as were the ancient Gauls +and Scythians), so that numbers, unless they are well employed, make +the body politic big but unwieldy, strong but unactive, as to any uses +of good government.<br> +<br> +Theirs is a wrong opinion who think all mouths profit a country that +consume its produce, and it may be more truly affirmed, that he who +does not some way serve the commonwealth, either by being employed or +by employing others, is not only a useless, but a hurtful member to +it.<br> +<br> +As it is charity, and what we indeed owe to human kind, to make provision +for the aged, the lame, the sick, blind, and impotent, so it is a justice +we owe to the commonwealth not to suffer such as have health, and who +might maintain themselves, to be drones and live upon the labour of +others.<br> +<br> +The bulk of such as are a burden to the public consists in the cottagers +and paupers, beggars in great cities and towns, and vagrants.<br> +<br> +Upon a survey of the hearth books, made in Michaelmas, 1685, it was +found that of the 1,300,000 houses in the whole kingdom, those of one +chimney amounted to 554,631, but some of these having land about them, +in all our calculations, we have computed the cottagers but at 500,000 +families; but of these, a large number may get their own livelihood, +and are no charge to the parish, for which reason Mr. King very judiciously +computes his cottagers and paupers, decreasing the wealth of the nation +but at 400,000 families, in which account he includes the poor-houses +in cities, towns, and villages, besides which he reckons 30,000 vagrants, +and all these together to make up 1,330,000 heads.<br> +<br> +This is a very great proportion of the people to be a burden upon the +other part, and is a weight upon the land interest, of which the landed +gentlemen must certainly be very sensible.<br> +<br> +If this vast body of men, instead of being expensive, could be rendered +beneficial to the commonwealth, it were a work, no doubt, highly to +be promoted by all who love their country.<br> +<br> +It seems evident, to such as have considered these matters, and who +have observed how they are ordered in nations under a good polity, that +the number of such who through age or impotence stand in real need of +relief, is but small and might be maintained for very little, and that +the poor rates are swelled to the extravagant degree we now see them +at by two sorts of people, one of which, by reason of our slack administration, +is suffered to remain in sloth, and the other, through a defect in our +constitution, continue in wretched poverty for want of employment, though +willing enough to undertake it.<br> +<br> +All this seems capable of a remedy, the laws may be armed against voluntary +idleness, so as to prevent it, and a way may probably be found out to +set those to work who are desirous to support themselves by their own +labour; and if this could be brought about, it would not only put a +stop to the course of that vice which is the consequence of an idle +life, but it would greatly tend to enrich the commonwealth, for if the +industry of not half the people maintain in some degree the other part, +and, besides, in times of peace did add every year near two million +and a half to the general stock of England, to what pitch of wealth +and greatness might we not be brought, if one limb were not suffered +to draw away the nourishment of the other, and if all the members of +the body politic were rendered useful to it?<br> +<br> +Nature, in her contrivances, has made every part of a living creature +either for ornament or use; the same should be in a politic institution +rightly governed.<br> +<br> +It may be laid down for an undeniable truth, that where all work nobody +will want, and to promote this would be a greater charity and more meritorious +than to build hospitals, which very often are but so many monuments +of ill-gotten riches attended with late repentance.<br> +<br> +To make as many as possible of these 1,330,000 persons (whereof not +above 330,000 are children too young to work) who now live chiefly upon +others get themselves a large share of their maintenance would be the +opening a new vein of treasure of some millions sterling per annum; +it would be a present ease to every particular man of substance, and +a lasting benefit to the whole body of the kingdom, for it would not +only nourish but increase the numbers of the people, of which many thousands +perish every year by those diseases contracted under a slothful poverty.<br> +<br> +Our laws relating to the poor are very numerous, and this matter has +employed the care of every age for a long time, though but with little +success, partly through the ill execution, and partly through some defect +in the very laws.<br> +<br> +The corruptions of mankind are grown so great that, now-a-days, laws +are not much observed which do not in a manner execute themselves; of +this nature are those laws which relate to bringing in the Prince’s +revenue, which never fail to be put in execution, because the people +must pay, and the Prince will be paid; but where only one part of the +constitution, the people, are immediately concerned, as in laws relating +to the poor, the highways, assizes, and other civil economy, and good +order in the state, those are but slenderly regarded.<br> +<br> +The public good being therefore, very often, not a motive strong enough +to engage the magistrate to perform his duty, lawgivers have many times +fortified their laws with penalties, wherein private persons may have +a profit, thereby to stir up the people to put the laws in execution.<br> +<br> +In countries depraved nothing proceeds well wherein particular men do +not one way or other find their account; and rather than a public good +should not go on at all, without doubt, it is better to give private +men some interest to set it forward.<br> +<br> +For which reason it may be worth the consideration of such as study +the prosperity and welfare of England, whether this great engine of +maintaining the poor, and finding them work and employment, may not +be put in motion by giving some body of undertakers a reasonable gain +to put the machine upon its wheels.<br> +<br> +In order to which, we shall here insert a proposal delivered to the +House of Commons last session of Parliament, for the better maintaining +the impotent, and employing and setting to work the other poor of this +kingdom.<br> +<br> +In matters of this nature, it is always good to have some model or plan +laid down, which thinking men may contemplate, alter, and correct, as +they see occasion; and the writer of these papers does rather choose +to offer this scheme, because he is satisfied it was composed by a gentleman +of great abilities, and who has made both the poor rates, and their +number, more his study than any other person in the nation. The +proposal is as follows<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>A Scheme for Setting the Poor to Work.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>First, that such persons as shall subscribe and pay the sum of £300,000 +as a stock for and towards the better maintaining the impotent poor, +and for buying commodities and materials to employ and set at work the +other poor, be incorporated and made one body politic, &c. +By the name of the Governor and Company for Maintaining and Employing +the Poor of this Kingdom.<br> +<br> +By all former propositions, it was intended that the parishes should +advance several years’ rates to raise a stock, but by this proposal +the experiment is to be made by private persons at their risk; and £300,000 +may be judged a very good stock, which, added to the poor rates for +a certain number of years, will be a very good fund for buying commodities +and materials for a million of money at any time. This subscription +ought to be free for everybody, and if the sum were subscribed in the +several counties of England and Wales, in proportion to their poor rates, +or the monthly assessment, it would be most convenient; and provision +may be made that no person shall transfer his interest but to one of +the same county, which will keep the interest there during the term; +and as to its being one Corporation, it is presumed this will be most +beneficial to the public. For first, all disputes on removes, +which are very chargeable and burthensome, will be at an end - this +proposal intending, that wherever the poor are, they shall be maintained +or employed. Secondly, it will prevent one county which shall +be diligent, imposing on their neighbours who may be negligent, or getting +away their manufactures from them. Thirdly, in case of fire, plague, +or loss of manufacture, the stock of one county may not be sufficient +to support the places where such calamities may happen; and it is necessary +the whole body should support every particular member, so that hereby +there will be a general care to administer to every place according +to their necessities.<br> +<br> +Secondly, that the said Corporation be established for the term of one-and-twenty +years.<br> +<br> +The Corporation ought to be established for one-and-twenty years, or +otherwise it cannot have the benefit the law gives in case of infants, +which is their service for their education; besides, it will be some +years before a matter of this nature can be brought into practice.<br> +<br> +Thirdly, that the said sum of £300,000 be paid in, and laid out +for the purposes aforesaid, to remain as a stock for and during the +said term of one-and-twenty years.<br> +<br> +The subscription ought to be taken at the passing of the Act, but the +Corporation to be left at liberty to begin either the Michaelmas or +the Lady Day after, as they shall think fit. And XXX per cent. +to be paid at the subscribing to persons appointed for that purpose, +and the remainder before they begin to act; but so as £300,000 +shall be always in stock during the term, notwithstanding any dividends +or other disposition: and an account thereof to be exhibited twice in +every year upon oath, before the Lord Chancellor for the time being.<br> +<br> +Fourthly, that the said corporation do by themselves, or agents in every +parish of England, from and after the XXX day of XXX during the said +term of one-and-twenty years, provide for the real impotent poor good +and sufficient maintenance and reception, as good or better than hath +at any time within the space of XXX years before the said XXX day of +XXX been provided or allowed to such impotent poor, and so shall continue +to provide for such impotent poor, and what other growing impotent poor +shall happen in the said parish during the said term.<br> +<br> +By impotent poor is to be understood all infants and old and decrepid +persons not able to work; also persons who by sickness or any accident +are for the time unable to labour for themselves or families; and all +persons (not being fit for labour) who were usually relieved by the +money raised for the use of the poor; they shall have maintenance, as +good or better, as within XXX years they used to have.<br> +<br> +This does not directly determine what that shall be, nor is it possible, +by reason a shilling in one county is as much as two in another; but +it will be the interest of the Corporation that such poor be well provided +for, by reason the contrary will occasion all the complaints or clamour +that probably can be made against the Corporation.<br> +<br> +Fifthly, that the Corporation do provide (as well for all such poor +which on the said XXX day of XXX shall be on the poor books, as for +what other growing poor shall happen in the said term who are or shall +be able to labour or do any work) sufficient labour and work proper +for such persons to be employed in. And that provision shall be +made for such labouring persons according to their labour, so as such +provision doth not exceed three-fourth parts as much as any other person +would have paid for such labour. And in case they are not employed +and set to work, then such persons shall, until materials or labour +be provided for them, be maintained as impotent poor; but so as such +persons who shall hereafter enter themselves on the poor’s book, +being able to labour, shall not quit the service of the corporation, +without leave, for the space of six months.<br> +<br> +The Corporation are to provide materials and labour for all that can +work, and to make provision for them not exceeding three-fourth parts +as much as any other person would give for such labour. For example, +if another person would give one of these a shilling, the Corporation +ought to give but ninepence. And the reason is plain, first, because +the Corporation will be obliged to maintain them and their families +in all exigences, which others are not obliged to do, and consequently +they ought not to allow so much as others. Secondly, in case any +persons able to labour, shall come to the Corporation, when their agents +are not prepared with materials to employ them, by this proposal they +are to allow them full provision as impotent poor, until they find them +work, which is entirely in favour of the poor. Thirdly, it is +neither reasonable nor possible for the Corporation to provide materials +upon every occasion, for such persons as shall be entered with them, +unless they can be secure of such persons to work up those materials; +besides, without this provision, all the labouring people of England +will play fast and loose between their employers and the Corporation, +for as they are disobliged by one, they will run to the other, and so +neither shall be sure of them.<br> +<br> +Sixthly, that no impotent poor shall be removed out of the parish where +they dwell, but upon notice in writing given to the churchwardens or +overseers of the said parish, to what place of provision he or she is +removed.<br> +<br> +It is judged the best method to provide for the impotent poor in houses +prepared for that purpose, where proper provision may be made for several, +with all necessaries of care and maintenance. So that in some +places one house will serve the impotent poor of several parishes, in +which case the parish ought to know where to resort, to see if good +provision be made for them.<br> +<br> +Seventhly, that in case provision be not made for the poor of each parish, +in manner as aforesaid (upon due notice given to the agents of the Corporation) +the said parish may order their poor to be maintained, and deduct the +sum by them expended out of the next payments to be made to the said +corporation by the said parish.<br> +<br> +In case any accident happens in a parish, either by sickness, fall, +casualty of fire, or other ways; and that the agent of the Corporation +is not present to provide for them, or having notice doth not immediately +do it, the parish may do it, and deduct so much out of the next payment; +but there must be provision made for the notice, and in what time the +Corporation shall provide for them.<br> +<br> +Eighthly, that the said Corporation shall have and receive for the said +one-and-twenty years, that is to say, from every parish yearly, so much +as such parish paid in any one year, to be computed by a medium of seven +years; namely, from the 25th of March, 1690, to the 25th of March 1697, +and to be paid half-yearly; and besides, shall receive the benefit of +the revenues of all donations given to any parish, or which shall be +given during the said term, and all forfeitures which the law gives +to the use of the poor; and to all other sums which were usually collected +by the parish, for the maintenance of the poor.<br> +<br> +Whatever was raised for or applied to the use of the poor, ought to +be paid over to the Corporation; and where there are any donations for +maintaining the poor, it will answer the design of the donor, by reason +there will be better provision for the maintenance of the poor than +ever; and if that maintenance be so good, as to induce further charities, +no doubt the Corporation ought to be entitled to them. But there +are two objections to this article; first that to make a medium by a +time of war is unreasonable. Secondly, to continue the whole tax +for one-and-twenty years, does not seem to give any benefit to the kingdom +in that time. To the first, it is true, we have a peace, but trade +is lower now than at any time during the war, and the charge of the +poor greater; and when trade will mend is very uncertain. To the +second, it is very plain, that although the charge may be the same to +a parish in the total, yet it will be less to particular persons, because +those who before received alms, will now be enabled to be contributors; +but besides, the turning so many hundred thousand pounds a year (which +in a manner have hitherto been applied only to support idleness) into +industry; and the employing so many other idle vagrants and sturdy beggars, +with the product of their labour, will altogether be a present benefit +to the lands of England, as well in the rents as in the value; and further +the accidental charities in the streets and at doors, is, by a very +modest computation, over and above the poor rates, at least £300,000 +per annum, which will be entirely saved by this proposal, and the persons +set at work; which is a further consideration for its being well received, +since the Corporation are not allowed anything for this service.<br> +<br> +The greater the encouragement is, the better the work will be performed; +and it will become the wisdom of the parliament in what they do, to +make it effectual; for should such an undertaking as this prove ineffectual, +instead of remedying, it will increase the mischief.<br> +<br> +Ninthly, that all the laws made for the provision of the poor, and for +punishing idle vagrant persons, be repealed, and one law made to continue +such parts as are found useful, and to add such other restrictions, +penalties, and provisions, as may effectually attain the end of this +great work.<br> +<br> +The laws hereunto relating are numerous, but the judgment and opinions +given upon them are so various and contradictory, and differ so in sundry +places, as to be inconsistent with any one general scheme of management.<br> +<br> +Tenthly, that proper persons be appointed in every county to determine +all matters and differences which may arise between the corporation +and the respective parishes.<br> +<br> +To prevent any ill usage, neglect or cruelty, it will be necessary to +make provision that the poor may tender their complaints to officers +of the parish; and that those officers having examined the same, and +not finding redress, may apply to persons to be appointed in each county +and each city for that purpose, who may be called supervisors of the +poor, and may have allowance made them for their trouble; and their +business may be to examine the truth of such complaints; and in case +either the parish or corporation judge themselves aggrieved by the determination +of the said supervisors, provision may be made that an appeal lie to +the quarter sessions.<br> +<br> +Eleventhly, that the corporation be obliged to provide for all public +beggars, and to put the laws into execution against public beggars and +idle vagrant persons.<br> +<br> +Such of the public beggars as can work must be employed, the rest to +be maintained as impotent poor, but the laws to be severely put in execution +against those who shall ask any public alms.<br> +<br> +This proposal, which in most parts of it seems to be very maturely weighed, +may be a foundation for those to build upon who have a public spirit +large enough to embrace such a noble undertaking.<br> +<br> +But the common obstruction to anything of this nature is a malignant +temper in some who will not let a public work go on if private persons +are to be gainers by it. When they are to get themselves, they +abandon all sense of virtue; but are clothed in her whitest robe when +they smell profit coming to another, masking themselves with a false +zeal to the commonwealth, where their own turn is not to be served. +It were better, indeed, that men would serve their country for the praise +and honour that follow good actions, but this is not to be expected +in a nation at least leaning towards corruption, and in such an age +it is as much as we can hope for if the prospect of some honest gain +invites people to do the public faithful service. For which reason, +in any undertaking where it can be made apparent that a great benefit +will accrue to the commonwealth in general, we ought not to have an +evil eye upon what fair advantages particular men may thereby expect +to reap, still taking care to keep their appetite of getting within +moderate bounds, laying all just and reasonable restraints upon it, +and making due provision that they may not wrong or oppress their fellow +subjects.<br> +<br> +It is not to be denied, but that if fewer hands were suffered to remain +idle, and if the poor had full employment, it would greatly tend to +the common welfare, and contribute much towards adding every year to +the general stock of England.<br> +<br> +Among the methods that we have here proposed of employing the poor, +and making the whole body of the people useful to the public, we think +it our duty to mind those who consider the common welfare of looking +with a compassionate eye into the prisons of this kingdom, where many +thousands consume their time in vice and idleness, wasting the remainder +of their fortunes, or lavishing the substance of their creditors, eating +bread and doing no work, which is contrary to good order, and pernicious +to the commonwealth.<br> +<br> +We cannot therefore but recommend the thoughts of some good bill that +may effectually put an end to this mischief so scandalous in a trading +country, which should let no hands remain useless.<br> +<br> +It is not at all difficult to contrive such a bill as may relieve and +release the debtor, and yet preserve to his creditors all their fair, +just, and honest rights and interest.<br> +<br> +And so we have in this matter endeavoured to show that to preserve and +increase the people, and to make their numbers useful, are methods conducing +to make us gainers in the balance of trade.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK, MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETIC ***<br> +<pre> + +******This file should be named mkpa10h.htm or mkpa10h.zip****** +Corrected EDITIONS of our EBooks get a new NUMBER, mkpa11h.htm +VERSIONS based on separate sources get new LETTER, mkpa10ah.htm + +Project Gutenberg eBooks are often created from several printed +editions, all of which are confirmed as Public Domain in the US +unless a copyright notice is included. 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