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diff --git a/5619-0.txt b/5619-0.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b3f4709 --- /dev/null +++ b/5619-0.txt @@ -0,0 +1,4090 @@ +The Project Gutenberg eBook, Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic, +by William Petty, Edited by Henry Morley + + +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + + + + + +Title: Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic + + +Author: William Petty + +Editor: Henry Morley + +Release Date: August 3, 2014 [eBook #5619] +[This file was first posted on July 23, 2002] + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: UTF-8 + + +***START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK ESSAYS ON MANKIND AND POLITICAL +ARITHMETIC*** + + +Transcribed from the Cassell & Co. edition by David Price, email +ccx074@pglaf.org + + [Picture: Book cover] + + + + + + ESSAYS ON MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETIC + + +INTRODUCTION. + + +WILLIAM PETTY, born on the 26th of May, 1623, was the son of a clothier +at Romsey in Hampshire. After education at the Romsey Grammar School, he +continued his studies at Caen in Normandy. There he supported himself by +a little trade while learning French, and advancing his knowledge of +Greek, Latin, Mathematics, and much else that belonged to his idea of a +liberal education. His idea was large. He came back to England, and had +for a short time a place in the Navy; but at the age of twenty he went +abroad again, and was away three years, studying actively at Utrecht, +Leyden, and Amsterdam, and also in Paris. In Paris he assisted Thomas +Hobbes in drawing diagrams for his treatise on optics. At the age of +twenty-four Petty took out a patent for the invention of a copying +machine. It was described in a folio pamphlet “On Double Writing.” That +was in 1647, in Civil War time, and although Petty followed Hobbes in his +studies, he did not share the philosopher’s political opinions, but held +with the Parliament. In 1648 he added to his former pamphlet a +“Declaration concerning the newly invented Art of Double Writing.” + +Samuel Hartlib, the large-hearted Pole, who in those days spent his +worldly means in England for the advancement of agriculture and of +education, and other aids to the well-being of a nation, had caused +Milton to write his letter on education, as has been shown in the +Introduction to the hundred and twenty-first volume of this Library, +which contains that Letter together with Milton’s Areopagitica. Young +Petty’s first published writing was a Letter to Hartlib on Education, +entitled “The Advice of W. P. to Mr. Samuel Hartlib for the Advancement +of some Particular Parts of Learning.” This appeared in 1648, when +Petty’s age was twenty-five, and its aim was to suggest a wider view of +the whole field of education than had been possible in the Middle Ages, +of which schools and colleges were then preserving the traditions, as +they do still here and there to some extent. This pamphlet has been +reprinted in the sixth volume of the “Harleian Miscellany.” William +Petty wished the training of the young to be in several respects more +practical. + +His own activity of mind caused him to settle at Oxford, where he taught +anatomy and chemistry, which he had been studying abroad. He had read +with Hobbes the writings of Vesalius, the great founder of modern +practical anatomy. In 1649 William Petty graduated at Oxford as Doctor +of Medicine, obtained a fellowship at Brasenose, and practised. In 1650 +he surprised the public by restoring the action of the lungs in a woman +who had been hanged for infanticide, and so restoring her to life. + +Dr. Petty now took his place at Oxford among the energetic men of science +who had been inspired by the teaching of Francis Bacon to seek knowledge +by direct experiment, and to value knowledge above all things for its +power of advancing the welfare of man. The headquarters of these workers +were at Oxford, and in London at Gresham College. + +In 1650 Petty was made Professor of Anatomy at Oxford, and it is a +characteristic illustration of his great activity of mind that he was at +the same time Professor of Music at Gresham College. Music had then a +high place in the Seven Sciences, as that use of regulated numbers which +expressed the harmonies of the created world. The Seven Sciences were +divided into three of the Trivium, and four of the Quadrivium. The three +of the Trivium concerned the use of speech; they were Grammar, Rhetoric, +and Logic. The four of the Quadrivium concerned number and measure; they +were Arithmetic, Geometry, Music; and Astronomy, which led up straight to +God. Advance to Music might be represented in the student’s mind by his +reaching to a sense of the harmonious relation of all his studies, which, +so to speak, lived in his mind as a single well-proportioned thought. + +In 1652 Dr. Petty was sent to Ireland as physician to the army of the +Commonwealth. While there his active mind observed that the Survey on +which the Government had based its distribution of fortified lands to the +soldiers had been “most inefficiently and absurdly managed.” He obtained +the commission to make a fresh Survey, which he completed accurately in +thirteen months, and by which he obtained in payments from the Government +and from other persons interested ten thousand pounds. By investing this +in the purchase of soldiers’ claims, he secured for himself an Irish +estate of fifty thousand acres in the county of Kerry, opened upon it +mines and quarries, developed trade in timber, and set up a fishery. +John Evelyn said of him “that he had never known such another genius, and +that if Evelyn were a prince he would make Petty his second councillor at +least.” Henry Cromwell as Lord Deputy in Ireland made Petty his +secretary. + +Petty’s Maps were printed in 1685, two years before his death, as +“Hiberniæ Delineatio quoad hactenus licuit perfectissima;” a collection +of thirty-six maps, with a portrait of Sir William Petty, a work +answering to its description as the most perfect delineation of Ireland +that had up to that time been obtained. There is a coloured copy of +Petty’s maps in the British Museum, and also an uncoloured copy, with the +first five maps varying from those in the coloured copy, and giving a +General Map of Ireland, followed by Maps of Leinster, Munster, Ulster, +and Connaught. There was afterwards published in duodecimo, without +date, “A Geographical Description of ye Kingdom of Ireland, collected +from ye actual Survey made by Sir William Petty, corrected and amended, +engraven and published by Fra. Lamb.” This volume gives as its contents, +“one general mapp, four provincial mapps, and thirty-two county mapps; to +which is added a mapp of Great Brittaine and Ireland, together with an +Index of the whole.” + +At the Restoration William Petty accepted the inevitable change, and +continued his service to the country. He was knighted by Charles the +Second, and appointed in 1661 Inspector-General of Ireland. He entered +Parliament. He was one of the first founders of the Royal Society, +established at the beginning of the reign of Charles the Second; and the +outcome of these scientific studies along the line marked out by Francis +Bacon, which had been actively pursued in Oxford and at Gresham College. +In 1663 he applied his ingenuity to the invention of a swift +double-bottomed ship, that made one or two passages between England and +Ireland, but was then lost in a storm. + +In 1670 Sir William Petty established on his lands at Kerry the English +settlement at the head of the bay of Kenmare. The building of forty-two +houses for the English settlers first laid the foundations of the present +town of Kenmare. “The population,” writes Lord Macaulay, “amounted to a +hundred and eighty. The land round the town was well cultivated. The +cattle were numerous. Two small barks were employed in fishing and +trading along the coast. The supply of herrings, pilchards, mackerel, +and salmon, was plentiful, and would have been still more plentiful had +not the beach been, in the finest part of the year, covered by multitudes +of seals, which preyed on the fish of the bay. Yet the seal was not an +unwelcome visitor: his fur was valuable; and his oil supplied light +through the long nights of winter. An attempt was made with great +success to set up ironworks. It was not yet the practice to employ coal +for the purpose of smelting; and the manufacturers of Kent and Sussex had +much difficulty in procuring timber at a reasonable price. The +neighbourhood of Kenmare was then richly wooded; and Petty found it a +gainful speculation to send ore thither.” He looked also for profit from +the variegated marbles of adjacent islands. Distant two days’ journey +over the mountains from the nearest English, Petty’s English settlement +of Kenmare withstood all surrounding dangers, and in 1688, a year after +its founder’s death, defended itself successfully against a fierce and +general attack. + +Sir William Petty died at London, on the 16th of December, 1687, and was +buried in his native town of Romsey. He had added to his great wealth by +marriage, and was the founder of the family in which another Sir William +Petty became Earl of Shelburne and first Marquis of Lansdowne. The son +of that first Marquis was Henry third Marquis of Lansdowne, who took a +conspicuous part in our political history during the present century. + +Sir William Petty’s survey of the land in Ireland, called the Down +Survey, because its details were set down in maps, remains the legal +record of the title on which half the land in Ireland is held. The +original maps are preserved in the Public Record Office at Dublin, and +many of Petty’s MSS. are in the Bodleian Library at Oxford. + +He published in 1662 and 1685 a “Treatise of Taxes and Contributions, the +same being frequently to the present state and affairs of Ireland,” of +which his view started from the general opinion that men should +contribute to the public charge according to their interest in the public +peace—that is, according to their riches. “Now,” he said, “there are two +sorts of riches—one actual, and the other potential. A man is actually +and truly rich according to what he eateth, drinketh, weareth, or in any +other way really and actually enjoyeth. Others are but potentially and +imaginatively rich, who though they have power over much, make little use +of it, these being rather stewards and exchangers for the other sort than +owners for themselves.” He then showed how he considered that “every man +ought to contribute according to what he taketh to himself, and actually +enjoyeth.” + +In 1674 Sir William Petty published a paper on “Duplicate Proportion,” +and in 1679 he published in Latin a “Colloquy of David with his Own +Soul.” In 1682 he published a tract called “Quantulumcunque, concerning +Money;” and “England’s Guide to Industry,” in 1686. From 1682 to 1687, +the year of his death, Sir William Petty was drawing great attention to +the “Essays on Political Arithmetic,” which are here reprinted. There +was the little “Essay in Political Arithmetic, concerning the People, +Housings, Hospitals of London and Paris;” published in 1682, again in +French in 1686, and again in English in 1687. There was the little +“Essay concerning the Multiplication of Mankind, together with an Essay +on the Growth of London,” published in 1682, and again in 1683 and 1686. +There was in 1683, “Another Essay in Political Arithmetic concerning the +growth of the City of London.” There were “Farther Considerations on the +Dublin Bills of Mortality,” in 1686; and “Five Essays on Political +Arithmetic” (in French and English), “Observations upon the Cities of +London and Rome,” in 1687, the last year of Sir William Petty’s life. +Other writings of his were published in his lifetime, or have been +published since his death. He was in the study of political economy one +of the most ingenious and practical thinkers before the days of Adam +Smith. + +But the interest of those “Essays in Political Arithmetic” lies chiefly +in the facts presented by so trustworthy an authority. London had become +in the time of the Stuarts the most populous city in Europe, if not in +the world. This Sir William Petty sought to prove against the doubts of +foreign and other critics, and his “Political Arithmetic” was an +endeavour to determine the relative strength in population of the chief +cities of England, France, and Holland. His application of arithmetic in +the first of these essays to a census of the population at the Day of +Judgment he himself spoke of slightingly. It is a curious example of a +bygone form of theological discussion. But his tables and his reasonings +upon them grow in interest as he attempts his numbering of the people in +the reign of James II. by collecting facts upon which his deductions +might be founded. The references to the deaths by Plague in London +before the cleansing of the town by the great fire of 1666 are very +suggestive; and in one passage there is incidental note of delay in the +coming of the Plague then due, without reckoning the change made in +conditions of health by the rebuilding. Nobody knew, and no one even now +can calculate, how many lives the Fire of London saved. + +There was in Petty’s time no direct numbering of the people. The first +census in this country was not until more than a hundred years after Sir +William Petty’s death, although he points out in these essays how easily +it could be established, and what useful information it would give. +There was a census taken at Rome 566 years before Christ. But the first +census in Great Britain was taken in 1801, under provision of an Act +passed on the last day of the year 1800, to secure a numbering of the +population every ten years. Ireland was not included in the return; the +first census in Ireland was not until the year 1813. + +Sir William Petty had to base his calculations partly upon the Bills of +Mortality, which had been imperfectly begun under Elizabeth, but fell +into disuse, and were revived, as a weekly record of the number of +deaths, beginning on the 29th of October, 1603; notices of diseases first +appeared in them in 1629. The weekly bills were published every +Thursday, and any householder could have them supplied to him for four +shillings a year. These essays will show how inferences as to the number +of the living were drawn from the number of the dead. And even now our +Political Arithmetic depends too much upon rough calculations made from +the death register. It is seven years since the last census; we have +lost count of the changes in our population to a very great extent, and +have to wait three years before our reckoning can be made sure. The +interval should be reduced to five years. + +Another of Sir William Petty’s helps in the arithmetic of population was +the Chimney Tax, a revival of the old fumage or hearth-money—smoke +farthings, as the people called them—once paid, according to Domesday +Book, for every chimney in a house. Charles the Second had set up a +chimney tax in the year 1662; the statistics of the collection were at +the service of Sir William Petty. The tax outlived him but two years. +It was promptly abolished in the first year of William and Mary. + +The interest taken at home and abroad in these calculations of Political +Arithmetic set other men calculating, and reasoning upon their +calculations. The next worker in that direction was Gregory King, +Lancaster Herald, whose calculations immediately followed those of Sir +William Petty. Sir William Petty’s essays extended from 1682 until his +death in 1687. Gregory King’s estimates were made in 1689. They were a +study of the number population and distribution of wealth among us at the +time of the English Revolution, and the unpublished results were first +printed in a chapter on “The People of England,” which formed part a +volume published in 1699 as “An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making +a People Gainers in the Balance of Trade, by the Author of the Essay on +Ways and Means.” The volume was written by a member of Parliament in the +days of William and Mary, who desired to apply principles of political +economy to the maintenance of English wealth and liberty. It has been +wrongly scribed to Defoe; and its suggestion of the plan a trading +Corporation for solution of the whole problem of relief to the poor who +cannot work, and relief from the poor who can, might indeed make another +chapter in Defoe’s “Essay on Projects.” The chapter, which gives the +Political Arithmetic of Gregory King, with such comment and suggestions +as might be expected from a liberal supporter of the Revolution, and with +this suggestion of a Corporation, is in itself a complete essay. It +follows naturally upon the Political Arithmetic of Sir William Petty in +close sequence of time, and in carrying a like method of inquiry forward +until it reaches a few more conclusions. I have, therefore, added it to +this volume. It seems, at any rate, to show how Sir William Petty’s +books, of which the very small size grieved the stationer, had a large +influence on other minds; his figures bearing fruit in a new search for +facts and careful reasoning on the condition of the country at one of the +most critical times in English history. + + H. M. + + + + +THE STATIONER TO THE READER. + + +THE ensuing essay concerning the growth of the city of London was +entitled “Another Essay,” intimating that some other essay had preceded +it, which was not to be found. I having been much importuned for that +precedent essay, have found that the same was about the growth, increase, +and multiplication of mankind, which subject should in order of nature +precede that of the growth of the city of London, but am not able to +procure the essay itself, only I have obtained from a gentleman, who +sometimes corresponded with Sir W. Petty, an extract of a letter from Sir +William to him, which I verily believe containeth the scope thereof; +wherefore, I must desire the reader to be content therewith, till more +can be had. + + * * * * * + +_The extract of a letter concerning the scope of an essay intended to +precede another essay concerning the growth of the City of London_, _&c._ +_An Essay in Political Arithmetic_, _concerning the value and increase of +People and Colonies_. + +THE scope of this essay is concerning people and colonies, and to make +way for “Another Essay” concerning the growth of the city of London. I +desire in this first essay to give the world some light concerning the +numbers of people in England, with Wales, and in Ireland; as also of the +number of houses and families wherein they live, and of acres they +occupy. + +2. How many live upon their lands, how many upon their personal estates +and commerce, and how many upon art, and labour; how many upon alms, how +many upon offices and public employments, and how many as cheats and +thieves; how many are impotents, children, and decrepit old men. + +3. How many upon the poll-taxes in England, do pay extraordinary rates, +and how many at the level. + +4. How many men and women are prolific, and how many of each are married +or unmarried. + +5. What the value of people are in England, and what in Ireland at a +medium, both as members of the Church or Commonwealth, or as slaves and +servants to one another; with a method how to estimate the same, in any +other country or colony. + +6. How to compute the value of land in colonies, in comparison to +England and Ireland. + +7. How 10,000 people in a colony may be planted to the best advantage. + +8. A conjecture in what number of years England and Ireland may be fully +peopled, as also all America, and lastly the whole habitable earth. + +9. What spot of the earth’s globe were fittest for a general and +universal emporium, whereby all the people thereof may best enjoy one +another’s labours and commodities. + +10. Whether the speedy peopling of the earth would make + + (1) For the good of mankind. + + (2) To fulfil the revealed will of God. + + (3) To what prince or State the same would be most advantageous. + +11. An exhortation to all thinking men to solve the Scriptures and other +good histories, concerning the number of people in all ages of the world, +in the great cities thereof, and elsewhere. + +12. An appendix concerning the different number of sea-fish and +wild-fowl at the end of every thousand years since Noah’s Flood. + +13. An hypothesis of the use of those spaces (of about 8,000 miles +through) within the globe of our earth, supposing a shell of 150 miles +thick. + +14. What may be the meaning of glorified bodies, in case the place of +the blessed shall be without the convex of the orb of the fixed stars, if +that the whole system of the world was made for the use of our earth’s +men. + + + + +THE PRINCIPAL POINTS OF THIS DISCOURSE. + + +1. THAT London doubles in forty years, and all England in three hundred +and sixty years. + +2. That there be, A.D. 1682, about 670,000 souls in London, and about +7,400,000 in all England and Wales, and about 28,000,000 of acres of +profitable land. + +3. That the periods of doubling the people are found to be, in all +degrees, from between ten to twelve hundred years. + +4. That the growth of London must stop of itself before the year 1800. + +5. A table helping to understand the Scriptures, concerning the number +of people mentioned in them. + +6. That the world will be fully peopled within the next two thousand +years. + +7. Twelve ways whereby to try any proposal pretended for the public +good. + +8. How the city of London may be made (morally speaking) invincible. + +9. A help to uniformity in religion. + +10. That it is possible to increase mankind by generation four times +more than at present. + +11. The plagues of London is the chief impediment and objection against +the growth of the city. + +12. That an exact account of the people is necessary in this matter. + + + + +OF THE GROWTH OF THE CITY OF LONDON: + + + _And of the Measures_, _Periods_, _Causes_, _and Consequences thereof_. + +BY the city of London we mean the housing within the walls of the old +city, with the liberties thereof, Westminster, the Borough of Southwark, +and so much of the built ground in Middlesex and Surrey, whose houses are +contiguous unto, or within call of those aforementioned. Or else we mean +the housing which stand upon the ninety-seven parishes within the walls +of London; upon the sixteen parishes next without them; the six parishes +of Westminster, and the fourteen out-parishes in Middlesex and Surrey, +contiguous to the former, all which, 133 parishes, are comprehended +within the weekly bills of mortality. + +The growth of this city is measured. (1) By the quantity of ground, or +number of acres upon which it stands. (2) By the number of houses, as +the same appears by the hearth-books and late maps. (3) By the cubical +content of the said housing. (4) By the flooring of the same. (5) By +the number of days’ work, or charge of building the said houses. (6) By +the value of the said houses, according to their yearly rent, and number +of years’ purchase. (7) By the number of inhabitants; according to which +latter sense only we make our computations in this essay. + +Till a better rule can be obtained, we conceive that the proportion of +the people may be sufficiently measured by the proportion of the burials +in such years as were neither remarkable for extraordinary healthfulness +or sickliness. + +That the city hath increased in this latter sense appears from the bills +of mortality represented in the two following tables, viz., one whereof +is a continuation for eighteen years, ending 1682, of that table which +was published in the 117th page of the book of the observations upon the +London bills of mortality, printed in the year 1676. The other showeth +what number of people died at a medium of two years, indifferently taken, +at about twenty years’ distance from each other. + +The first of the said two tables. + + A.D. 97 Parishes. 16 Parishes. Out Parishes. Buried in Besides of Christened. + all. the Plague. + 1665 5,320 12,463 10,925 28,708 68,596 9,967 + 1666 1,689 3,969 5,082 10,740 1,998 8,997 + 1667 761 6,405 8,641 15,807 35 10,938 + 1668 796 6,865 9,603 17,267 14 11,633 + 1669 1,323 7,500 10,440 19,263 3 12,335 + 1670 1,890 7,808 10,500 20,198 11,997 + 1671 1,723 5,938 8,063 15,724 5 12,510 + 1672 2,237 6,788 9,200 18,225 5 12,593 + 1673 2,307 6,302 8,890 17,499 5 11,895 + 1674 2,801 7,522 10,875 21,198 3 11,851 + 1675 2,555 5,986 8,702 17,243 1 11,775 + 1676 2,756 6,508 9,466 18,730 2 12,399 + 1677 2,817 6,632 9,616 19,065 2 12,626 + 1678 3,060 6,705 10,908 20,673 5 12,601 + 1679 3,074 7,481 11,173 21,728 2 12,288 + 1680 3,076 7,066 10,911 21,053 12,747 + 1681 3,669 8,136 12,166 23,971 13,355 + 1682 2,975 7,009 10,707 20,691 12,653 + +According to which latter table there died as follows:— + + THE LATTER OF THE SAID TWO TABLES. + + _There died in London at the medium between the years_— + +1604 and 1605 5,135. A. +1621 and 1622 8,527 B. +1641 and 1642 11,883 C. +1661 and 1662 15,148. D. +1681 and 1682 22,331. E. + +Wherein observe, that the number C is double to A and 806 over. That D +is double to B within 1,906. That C and D is double to A and B within +293. That E is double to C within 1,435. That D and E is double to B +and C within 3,341; and that C and D and E are double to A and B and C +within 1,736; and that E is above quadruple to A. All which differences +(every way considered) do allow the doubling of the people of London in +40 years to be a sufficient estimate thereof in round numbers, and +without the trouble of fractions. We also say that 669,930 is near the +number of people now in London, because the burials are 22,331, which, +multiplied by 30 (one dying yearly out of 30, as appears in the 94th page +of the aforementioned observations), maketh the said number; and because +there are 84,000 tenanted houses (as we are credibly informed), which, at +8 in each, makes 672,000 souls; the said two accounts differing +inconsiderably from each other. + +We have thus pretty well found out in what number of years (viz., in +about 40) that the city of London hath doubled, and the present number of +inhabitants to be about 670,000. We must now also endeavour the same for +the whole territory of England and Wales. In order whereunto, we first +say that the assessment of London is about an eleventh part of the whole +territory, and, therefore, that the people of the whole may well be +eleven times that of London, viz., about 7,369,000 souls; with which +account that of the poll-money, hearth-money, and the bishop’s late +numbering of the communicants, do pretty well agree; wherefore, although +the said number of 7,369,000 be not (as it cannot be) a demonstrated +truth, yet it will serve for a good supposition, which is as much as we +want at present. + +As for the time in which the people double, it is yet more hard to be +found. For we have good experience (in the said page 94 of the +aforementioned observations) that in the country but 1 of 50 die per +annum; and by other late accounts, that there have been sometimes but 24 +births for 23 burials. The which two points, if they were universally +and constantly true, there would be colour enough to say that the people +doubled but in about 1,200 years. As, for example, suppose there be 600 +people, of which let a fiftieth part die per annum, then there shall die +12 per annum; and if the births be as 24 to 23, then the increase of the +people shall be somewhat above half a man per annum, and consequently the +supposed number of 600 cannot be doubled but in 1,126 years, which, to +reckon in round numbers, and for that the aforementioned fractions were +not exact, we had rather call 1,200. + +There are also other good observations, that even in the country one in +about 30 or 32 per annum hath died, and that there have been five births +for four burials. Now, according to this doctrine, 20 will die per annum +out of the above 600, and 25 will be born, so as the increase will be +five, which is a hundred and twentieth part of the said 600. So as we +have two fair computations, differing from each other as one to ten; and +there are also several other good observations for other measures. + +I might here insert, that although the births in this last computation be +25 of 600, or a twenty-fourth part of the people, yet that in natural +possibility they may be near thrice as many, and near 75. For that by +some late observations, the teeming females between 15 and 44 are about +180 of the said 600, and the males of between 18 and 59 are about 180 +also, and that every teeming woman can bear a child once in two years; +from all which it is plain that the births may be 90 (and abating 15 for +sickness, young abortions, and natural barrenness), there may remain 75 +births, which is an eighth of the people, which by some observations we +have found to be but a two-and-thirtieth part, or but a quarter of what +is thus shown to be naturally possible. Now, according to this +reckoning, if the births may be 75 of 600, and the burials but 15, then +the annual increase of the people will be 60; and so the said 600 people +may double in ten years, which differs yet more from 1,200 +above-mentioned. Now, to get out of this difficulty, and to temper those +vast disagreements, I took the medium of 50 and 30 dying per annum, and +pitched upon 40; and I also took the medium between 24 births and 23 +burials, and 5 births for 4 burials, viz., allowing about 10 births for 9 +burials; upon which supposition there must die 15 per annum out of the +above-mentioned 600, and the births must be 16 and two-thirds, and the +increase one and two-thirds, or five-thirds of a man, which number, +compared with 1,800 thirds, or 600 men, gives 360 years for the time of +doubling (including some allowance for wars, plagues, and famines, the +effects thereof), though they be terrible at the times and places where +they happen, yet in a period of 360 years is no great matter in the whole +nation. For the plagues of England in twenty years have carried away +scarce an eightieth part of the people of the whole nation; and the late +ten years’ civil wars (the like whereof hath not been in several ages +before) did not take away above a fortieth part of the whole people. + +According to which account or measure of doubling, if there be now in +England and Wales 7,400,000 people, there were about 5,526,000 in the +beginning of Queen Elizabeth’s reign, A.D. 1560, and about 2,000,000 at +the Norman Conquest, of which consult the Doomsday Book, and my Lord +Hale’s “Origination of Mankind.” + +Memorandum.—That if the people double in 360 years, that the present +320,000,000 computed by some learned men (from the measures of all the +nations of the world, their degrees of being peopled, and good accounts +of the people in several of them) to be now upon the face of the earth, +will within the next 2,000 years so increase as to give one head for +every two acres of land in the habitable part of the earth. And then, +according to the prediction of the Scriptures, there must be wars, and +great slaughter, &c. + +Wherefore, as an expedient against the above-mentioned difference between +10 and 1,200 years, we do for the present, and in this country, admit of +360 years to be the time wherein the people of England do double, +according to the present laws and practice of marriages. + +Now, if the city double its people in 40 years, and the present number be +670,000, and if the whole territory be 7,400,000, and double in 360 +years, as aforesaid, then by the underwritten table it appears that A.D. +1840 the people of the city will be 10,718,880, and those of the whole +country but 10,917,389, which is but inconsiderably more. Wherefore it +is certain and necessary that the growth of the city must stop before the +said year 1840, and will be at its utmost height in the next preceding +period, A.D. 1800, when the number of the city will be eight times its +present number, 5,359,000. And when (besides the said number) there will +be 4,466,000 to perform the tillage, pasturage, and other rural works +necessary to be done without the said city, as by the following table, +viz.:— + + A.D. Burials. People in People in + London. England. + 1565 2,568 77,040 5,526,929 +As in the 1605 5,135 +former table. + 1642 11,883 + 1682 22,331 669,930 7,369,230 + 1722 44,662 + 1762 89,324 + 1802 178,648 5,359,440 9,825,650 + 1842 357,296 10,718,889 10,917,389 + +Now, when the people of London shall come to be so near the people of all +England, then it follows that the growth of London must stop before the +said year 1842, as aforesaid, and must be at its greatest height A.D. +1800, when it will be eight times more than now, with above 4,000,000 for +the service of the country and ports, as aforesaid. + +Of the aforementioned vast difference between 10 years and 1,200 years +for doubling the people, we make this use, viz.:—To justify the +Scriptures and all other good histories concerning the number of the +people in ancient time. For supposing the eight persons who came out of +the Ark, increased by a progressive doubling in every ten years, might +grow in the first 100 years after the Flood from 8 to 8,000, and that in +350 years after the Flood (whereabouts Noah died) to 1,000,000 and by +this time, 1682, to 320,000,000 (which by rational conjecture are thought +to be now in the world), it will not be hard to compute how, in the +intermediate years, the growths may be made, according to what is set +down in the following table, wherein making the doubling to be ten years +at first, and within 1,200 years at last, we take a discretionary +liberty, but justifiable by observations and the Scriptures for the rest, +which table we leave to be corrected by historians who know the bigness +of ancient cities, armies, and colonies in the respective ages of the +world, in the meantime affirming that without such difference in the +measures and periods for doubling (the extremes whereof we have +demonstrated to be real and true) it is impossible to solve what is +written in the Holy Scriptures and other authentic books. For if we +pitch upon any one number throughout for this purpose, 150 years is the +fittest of all round numbers; according to which there would have been +but 512 souls in the whole world in Moses’ time (being 800 years after +the Flood), when 603,000 Israelites of above twenty years old (besides +those of other ages, tribes, and nations) were found upon an exact survey +appointed by God, whereas our table makes 12,000,000. And there would +have been about 8,000 in David’s time, when were found 1,100,000, of +above twenty years old (besides others, as aforesaid) in Israel, upon the +survey instigated by Satan, whereas our table makes 32,000,000. And +there would have been but a quarter of a million about the birth of +Christ, or Augustus’s time, when Rome and the Roman Empire were so great, +whereas our table makes 100,000,000. Where note, that the Israelites in +about 500 years, between their coming out of Egypt to David’s reign, +increased from 603,000 to 1,100,000. + +On the other hand, if we pitch upon a less number, as 100 years, the +world would have been over-peopled 700 years since. Wherefore no one +number will solve the phenomena, and therefore we have supposed several, +in order to make the following table, which we again desire historians to +correct, according to what they find in antiquity concerning the number +of the people in each age and country of the world. + +We did (not long since) assist a worthy divine, writing against some +sceptics, who would have baffled our belief of the resurrection, by +saying, that the whole globe of the earth could not furnish matter enough +for all the bodies that must rise at the last day, much less would the +surface of the earth furnish footing for so vast a number; whereas we did +(by the method afore mentioned) assert the number of men now living, and +also of those that had died since the beginning of the world, and did +withal show, that half the island of Ireland would afford them all, not +only footing to stand upon, but graves to lie down in, for that whole +number; and that two mountains in that country were as weighty as all the +bodies that had ever been from the beginning of the world to the year +1680, when this dispute happened. For which purpose I have digressed +from my intended purpose to insert this matter, intending to prosecute +this hint further upon some more proper occasion. + + A TABLE SHOWING HOW THE PEOPLE MIGHT HAVE DOUBLED IN THE SEVERAL AGES OF + THE WORLD. + + Periods of doubling A.D., after the Persons. + Flood. +In 10 years 1 8 + 10 16 + 20 32 + 30 64 + 40 128 + 50 256 + 60 512 + 70 1,024 + 80 2,048 + 90 4,096 + 100 8,000 and more. + 120 16,000 +In 20 years 140 32,000 +In 30 years 170 64,000 + 200 128,000 +40 240 256,000 +50 290 512,000 +60 350 1,000,000 and more. +70 420 2,000,000 +100 520 4,000,000 +190 710 8,000,000 +290 1,000 16,000,000 in Moses’ + time. +400 1,400 32,000,000 about + David’s time. +550 1,950 64,000,000 +750 2,700 128,000,000 about the + birth of Christ. +1,000 3,700 256,000,000 + 300 +In 300 / 1,200 4,000 320,000,000 + +It is here to be noted, that in this table we have assigned a different +number of years for the time of doubling the people in the several ages +of the world, and might have done the same for the several countries of +the world, and therefore the said several periods assigned to the whole +world in the lump may well enough consist with the 360 years especially +assigned to England, between this day and the Norman Conquest; and the +said 360 years may well enough serve for a supposition between this time +and that of the world’s being fully peopled; nor do we lay any stress +upon one or the other in this disquisition concerning the growth of the +city of London. + +We have spoken of the growth of London, with the measures and periods +thereof; we come next to the causes and consequences of the same. + +The causes of its growth from 1642 to 1682 may be said to have been as +follows, viz.:—From 1642 to 1650, that men came out of the country to +London, to shelter themselves from the outrages of the Civil Wars during +that time; from 1650 to 1660, the royal party came to London for their +more private and inexpensive living; from 1660 to 1670, the king’s +friends and party came to receive his favours after his happy +restoration; from 1670 to 1680, the frequency of plots and parliaments +might bring extraordinary numbers to the city; but what reasons to assign +for the like increase from 1604 to 1642 I know not, unless I should pick +out some remarkable accident happening in each part of the said period, +and make that to be the cause of this increase (as vulgar people make the +cause of every man’s sickness to be what he did last eat), wherefore, +rather than so to say _quidlibet de quolibet_, I had rather quit even +what I have above said to be the cause of London’s increase from 1642 to +1682, and put the whole upon some natural and spontaneous benefits and +advantages that men find by living in great more than in small societies, +and shall therefore seek for the antecedent causes of this growth in the +consequences of the like, considered in greater characters and +proportions. + +Now, whereas in arithmetic, out of two false positions the truth is +extracted, so I hope out of two extravagant contrary suppositions to draw +forth some solid and consistent conclusion, viz.:— + +The first of the said two suppositions is, that the city of London is +seven times bigger than now, and that the inhabitants of it are 4,690,000 +people, and that in all the other cities, ports, towns, and villages, +there are but 2,710,000 more. + +The other supposition is, that the city of London is but a seventh part +of its present bigness, and that the inhabitants of it are but 96,000, +and that the rest of the inhabitants (being 7,304,000) do cohabit thus: +104,000 of them in small cities and towns, and that the rest, being +7,200,000, do inhabit in houses not contiguous to one another, viz., in +1,200,000 houses, having about twenty-four acres of ground belonging to +each of them, accounting about 28,000,000 of acres to be in the whole +territory of England, Wales, and the adjacent islands, which any man that +pleases may examine upon a good map. + +Now, the question is, in which of these two imaginary states would be the +most convenient, commodious, and comfortable livings? + +But this general question divides itself into the several questions, +relating to the following particulars, viz.:— + +1. For the defence of the kingdom against foreign powers. + +2. For preventing the intestine commotions of parties and factions. + +3. For peace and uniformity in religion. + +4. For the administration of justice. + +5. For the proportionably taxing of the people, and easy levying the +same. + +6. For gain by foreign commerce. + +7. For husbandry, manufacture, and for arts of delight and ornament. + +8. For lessening the fatigue of carriages and travelling. + +9. For preventing beggars and thieves. + +10. For the advancement and propagation of useful learning. + +11. For increasing the people by generation. + +12. For preventing the mischiefs of plagues and contagious. And withal, +which of the said two states is most practicable and natural, for in +these and the like particulars do lie the tests and touchstones of all +proposals that can be made for the public good. + +First, as to practicable, we say, that although our said extravagant +proposals are both in nature possible, yet it is not obvious to every man +to conceive how London, now seven times bigger than in the beginning of +Queen Elizabeth’s reign, should be seven times bigger than now it is, and +forty-nine times bigger than A.D. 1560. To which I say, 1. That the +present city of London stands upon less than 2,500 acres of ground, +wherefore a city seven times as large may stand upon 10,500 acres, which +is about equivalent to a circle of four miles and a half in diameter, and +less than fifteen miles in circumference. 2. That a circle of ground of +thirty-five miles semidiameter will bear corn, garden-stuff, fruits, hay, +and timber, for the 4,690,000 inhabitants of the said city and circle, so +as nothing of that kind need be brought from above thirty-five miles +distance from the said city; for the number of acres within the said +circle, reckoning two acres sufficient to furnish bread and drink-corn +for every head, and two acres will furnish hay for every necessary horse; +and that the trees which may grow in the hedgerows of the fields within +the said circle may furnish timber for 600,000 houses. 3. That all live +cattle and great animals can bring themselves to the said city; and that +fish can be brought from the Land’s End and Berwick as easily as now. 4. +Of coals there is no doubt: and for water, 20s. per family (or £600,000 +per annum in the whole) will serve this city, especially with the help of +the New River. But if by practicable be understood that the present +state may be suddenly changed into either of the two above-mentioned +proposals, I think it is not practicable. Wherefore the true question +is, unto or towards which of the said two extravagant states it is best +to bend the present state by degrees, viz., Whether it be best to lessen +or enlarge the present city? In order whereunto, we inquire (as to the +first question) which state is most defensible against foreign powers, +saying, that if the above-mentioned housing, and a border of ground, of +three-quarters of a mile broad, were encompassed with a wall and ditch of +twenty miles about (as strong as any in Europe, which would cost but a +million, or about a penny in the shilling of the house-rent for one year) +what foreign prince could bring an army from beyond seas, able to beat—1. +Our sea-forces, and next with horse harassed at sea, to resist all the +fresh horse that England could make, and then conquer above a million of +men, well united, disciplined, and guarded within such a wall, distant +everywhere three-quarters of a mile from the housing, to elude the +granadoes and great shot of the enemy? 2. As to intestine parties and +factions, I suppose that 4,690,000 people united within this great city +could easily govern half the said number scattered without it, and that a +few men in arms within the said city and wall could also easily govern +the rest unarmed, or armed in such a manner as the Sovereign shall think +fit. 3. As to uniformity in religion, I conceive, that if St. Martin’s +parish (may as it doth) consist of about 40,000 souls, that this great +city also may as well be made but as one parish, with seven times 130 +chapels, in which might not only be an uniformity of common prayer, but +in preaching also; for that a thousand copies of one judiciously and +authentically composed sermon might be every week read in each of the +said chapels without any subsequent repetition of the same, as in the +case of homilies. Whereas in England (wherein are near 10,000 parishes, +in each of which upon Sundays, holy days, and other extraordinary +occasions there should be about 100 sermons annum, making about a million +of sermons per annum in the whole) it were a miracle, if a million of +sermons composed by so many men, and of so many minds and methods, should +produce uniformity upon the discomposed understandings of about 8,000,000 +of hearers. + +4. As to the administration of justice. If in this great city shall +dwell the owners of all the lands, and other valuable things in England; +if within it shall be all the traders, and all the courts, offices, +records, juries, and witnesses; then it follows that justice may be done +with speed and ease. + +5. As to the equality and easy levying of taxes. It is too certain that +London hath at some time paid near half the excise of England, and that +the people pay thrice as much for the hearths in London as those in the +country, in proportion to the people of each, and that the charge of +collecting these duties have been about a sixth part of the duty itself. +Now in this great city the excise alone according to the present laws +would not only be double to the whole kingdom, but also more equal. And +the duty of hearths of the said city would exceed the present proceed of +the whole kingdom. And as for the customs we mention them not at +present. + +6. Whether more would be gained by foreign commerce? The gain which +England makes by lead, coals, the freight of shipping, &c., may be the +same, for aught I see, in both cases. But the gain which is made by +manufactures will be greater as the manufacture itself is greater and +better. For in so vast a city manufactures will beget one another, and +each manufacture will be divided into as many parts as possible, whereby +the work of each artisan will be simple and easy. As, for example, in +the making of a watch, if one man shall make the wheels, another the +spring, another shall engrave the dial-plate, and another shall make the +cases, then the watch will be better and cheaper than if the whole work +be put upon any one man. And we also see that in towns, and in the +streets of a great town, where all the inhabitants are almost of one +trade, the commodity peculiar to those places is made better and cheaper +than elsewhere. Moreover, when all sorts of manufactures are made in one +place, there every ship that goeth forth can suddenly have its loading of +so many several particulars and species as the port whereunto she is +bound can take off. Again, when the several manufactures are made in one +place, and shipped off in another, the carriage, postage, and travelling +charges, will enhance the price of such manufacture, and lessen the gain +upon foreign commerce. And lastly, when the imported goods are spent in +the port itself, where they are landed, the carriage of the same into +other places will create no further charge upon such commodity; all which +particulars tend to the greater gain by foreign commerce. + +7. As for arts of delight and ornament. They are best promoted by the +greatest number of emulators. And it is more likely that one ingenious +curious man may rather be found out amongst 4,000,000 than 400 persons. +But as for husbandry, viz., tillage and pasturage, I see no reason, but +the second state (when each family is charged with the culture of about +twenty-four acres) will best promote the same. + +8. As for lessening the fatigue of carriage and travelling. + +The thing speaks for itself, for if all the men of business, and all +artisans, do live within five miles of each other, and if those who live +without the great city do spend only such commodities as grow where they +live, then the charge of carriage and travelling could be little. + +9. As to the preventing of beggars and thieves. + +I do not find how the differences of the said two states should make much +difference in this particular; for impotents (which are but one in about +600) ought to be maintained by the rest. 2. Those who are unable to +work, through the evil education of their parents, ought (for aught I +know) to be maintained by their nearest kindred, as a just punishment +upon them. 3. And those who cannot find work (though able and willing to +perform it), by reason of the unequal application of hands to lands, +ought to be provided for by the magistrate and landlord till that can be +done; for there need be no beggars in countries where there are many +acres of unimproved improvable land to every head, as there are in +England. As for thieves, they are for the most part begotten from the +same cause; for it is against Nature that any man should venture his +life, limb, or liberty, for a wretched livelihood, whereas moderate +labour will produce a better. But of this see Sir Thomas More, in the +first part of his “Utopia.” + +10. As to the propagation and improvement of useful learning. + +The same may be said concerning it as was above said concerning +manufactures, and the arts of delight and ornaments; for in the great +vast city there can be no so odd a conceit or design whereunto some +assistance may not be found, which in the thin, scattered way of +habitation may not be. + +11. As for the increase of people by generation. I see no great +difference from either of the two states, for the same may be hindered or +promoted in either from the same causes. + +12. As to the plague. + +It is to be remembered that one time with another a plague happeneth in +London once in twenty years, or thereabouts; for in the last hundred +years, between the years 1582 and 1682, there have been five great +plagues—viz., A.D. 1592, 1603, 1625, 1636, and 1665. And it is also to +be remembered that the plagues of London do commonly kill one-fifth part +of the inhabitants. Now if the whole people of England do double but in +360 years, then the annual increase of the same is but 20,000, and in +twenty years 400,000. But if in the city of London there should be +2,000,000 of people (as there will be about sixty years hence), then the +plague (killing one-fifth of them, namely, 400,000 once in twenty years) +will destroy as many in one year as the whole nation can re-furnish in +twenty; and consequently the people of the nation shall never increase. +But if the people of London shall be above 4,000,000 (as in the first of +our two extravagant suppositions is premised), then the people of the +whole nation shall lessen above 20,000 per annum. So as if people be +worth £70 per head (as hath elsewhere been shown), then the said +greatness of the city will be a damage to itself and the whole nation of +£1,400,000 per annum, and so _pro rata_ for a greater or lesser number; +wherefore to determine which of the two states is best—that is to say, +towards which of the said two states authority should bend the present +state, a just balance ought to be made between the disadvantages from the +plague, with the advantages accruing from the other particulars above +mentioned, unto which balance a more exact account of the people, and a +better rule for the measure of its growth is necessary than what we have +here given, or are yet able to lay down. + + + +POSTSCRIPT. + + +IT was not very pertinent to a discourse concerning the growth of the +city of London to thrust in considerations of the time when the whole +world will be fully peopled; and how to justify the Scriptures concerning +the number of people mentioned in them; and concerning the number of the +quick and the dead that may rise at the last day, &c. Nevertheless, +since some friends, liking the said digressions and impertinences +(perhaps as sauce to a dry discourse) have desired that the same might be +explained and made out, I, therefore, say as followeth:— + +1. If the number of acres in the habitable part of the earth be under +50,000,000,000; if 20,000,000,000 of people are more than the said number +of acres will feed (few or no countries being so fully peopled), and for +that in six doublings (which will be in 2,000 years) the present +320,000,000 will exceed the said 20,000,000,000. + +2. That the number of all those who have died since the Flood is the sum +of all the products made by multiplying the number of the doubling +periods mentioned in the first column of the last table, by the number of +people respectively affixed to them in the third column of the same +table, the said sum being divided by 40 (one dying out of 40 per annum +out of the whole mass of mankind), which quotient is 12,570,000,000; +whereunto may be added, for those that died before the Flood, enough to +make the last-mentioned number 20,000,000,000, as the full number of all +that died from the beginning of the world to the year 1682, unto which, +if 320,000,000, the number of those who are now alive, be added, the +total of the quick and the dead will amount but unto one fifth part of +the graves which the surface of Ireland will afford, without ever putting +two bodies into any one grave; for there be in Ireland 28,000 square +English miles, each whereof will afford about 4,000,000 of graves, and +consequently above 114,000,000,000 of graves, viz., about five times the +number of the quick and the dead which should arise at the last day, in +case the same had been in the year 1682. + +3. Now, if there may be place for five times as many graves in Ireland +as are sufficient for all that ever died, and if the earth of one grave +weigh five times as much as the body interred therein, then a turf less +than a foot thick pared off from a fifth part of the surface of Ireland, +will be equivalent in bulk and weight to all the bodies that ever were +buried, and may serve as well for that purpose as the two mountains +aforementioned in the body of this discourse. From all which it is plain +how madly they were mistaken who did so petulantly vilify what the Holy +Scriptures have delivered. + + + + +FURTHER OBSERVATION UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS; + + + _Or_, _Accounts of the Houses_, _Hearths_, _Baptisms_, _and Burials in + that City_. + + + +THE STATIONER TO THE READER. + + +I HAVE not thought fit to make any alteration of the first edition, but +have only added a new table, with observation upon it, placing the same +in the front of what was before, which, perhaps, might have been as well +placed after the like table at the eighth page of the first edition. + + * * * * * + + DUBLIN, 1682. + +Parishes. Houses. Fireplaces. Baptised. Buried. +St. James’s 272 836 } 122 306 +St. 540 2,198 } +Katherine’s +St. 1,064 4,082 145 414 +Nicholas +Without and +St. +Patrick’s +St. 395 1,903 68 149 +Bridget’s +St. 276 1,510 56 164 +Audone’s +St. 174 884 34 50 +Michael’s +St. John’s 302 1,636 74 101 +St. 153 902 26 52 +Nicholas +Within and +Christ +Church Lib. +St. 240 1,638 45 105 +Warburgh’s +St. 938 3,516 124 389 +Michan’s +St. 864 3,638 131 300 +Andrew’s +St. Kevin’s 554 2,120 } 87 233 +Donnybrook 253 506 } + 6,025 25,369 912 2,263 + +The table hath been made for the year 1682, wherein is to be noted— + +1. That the houses which A.D. 1671 were but 3,850 are, A.D. 1682, 6,025; +but whether this difference is caused by the real increase of housing, or +by fraud and defect in the former accounts, is left to consideration. +For the burials of people have increased but from 1,696 to 2,263, +according to which proportion the 3,850 houses A.D. 1671 should A.D. 1682 +have been but 5,143, wherefore some fault may be suspected as aforesaid, +when farming the hearth-money was in agitation. + +2. The hearths have increased according to the burials, and one-third of +the said increase more, viz., the burials A.D. 1671 were 1,696, the +one-third whereof is 563, which put together makes 2,259, which is near +the number of burials A.D. 1682. But the hearths A.D. 1671 were 17,500, +whereof the one-third is 5,833, making in all but 23,333; whereas the +whole hearths A.D. 1682 were 25,369, viz., one-third and better of the +said 5,833 more. + +3. The housing were A.D. 1671 but 3,850, which if they had increased +A.D. 1682 but according to the burials, they had been but 5,143, or, +according to the hearths, had been but 5,488, whereas they appear 6,025, +increasing double to the hearths. So as it is likely there hath been +some error in the said account of the housing, unless the new housing be +very small, and have but one chimney apiece, and that one-fourth part of +them are untenanted. On the other hand, it is more likely that when +1,696 died per annum there were near 6,000; for 6,000 houses at 8 +inhabitants per house, would make the number of the people to be 48,000, +and the number of 1,696 that died according to the rule of one out of 30, +would have made the number of inhabitants about 50,000: for which reason +I continue to believe there was some error in the account of 3,850 houses +as aforesaid, and the rather because there is no ground from experience +to think that in eleven years the houses in Dublin have increased from +3,850 to 6,025. + +Moreover, I rather think that the number of 6,025 is yet short, because +that number at 8 heads per house makes the inhabitants to be but 48,200; +whereas the 2,263 who died in the year 1682, according to the +aforementioned rule of one dying out of 30 makes the number of people to +be 67,890, the medium betwixt which number and 48,200 is 58,045, which is +the best estimate I can make of that matter, which I hope authority will +ere long rectify, by direct and exact inquiries. + +4. As to the births, we say that A.D. 1640, 1641, and 1642, at London, +just before the troubles in religion began, the births were five-sixths +of the burials, by reason I suppose of the greaterness of families in +London above the country, and the fewer breeders, and not for want of +registering. Wherefore, deducting one-sixth of 2,263, which is 377, +there remains 1,886 for the probable number of births in Dublin for the +year 1682; whereas but 912 are represented to have been christened in +that year, though 1,023 were christened A.D. 1671, when there died but +1,696, which decreasing of the christening, and increasing of the +burials, shows the increase of non-registering in the legal books, which +must be the increase of Roman Catholics at Dublin. + +The scope of this whole paper therefore is, that the people of Dublin are +rather 58,000 than 32,000, and that the dissenters, who do not register +their baptisms, have increased from 391 to 974: but of dissenters, none +have increased but the Roman Catholics, whose numbers have increased from +about two to five in the said years. The exacter knowledge whereof may +also be better had from direct inquiries. + + + + +OBSERVATIONS UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS OF MORTALITY, 1681: AND THE STATE OF +THAT CITY. + + +THE observations upon the London bills of mortality have been a new light +to the world, and the like observation upon those of Dublin may serve as +snuffers to make the same candle burn clearer. + +The London observations flowed from bills regularly kept for near one +hundred years, but these are squeezed out of six straggling London bills, +out of fifteen Dublin bills, and from a note of the families and hearths +in each parish of Dublin, which are all digested into the one table or +sheet annexed, consisting of three parts, marked A, B, C; being indeed +the A, B, C of public economy, and even of that policy which tends to +peace and plenty. + + +_Observations upon the Table A_. + + +1. The total of the burials in London (for the said six straggling years +mentioned in the Table A) is 120,170, whereof the medium or sixth part is +20,028, and exceeds the burials of Paris, as may appear by the late bills +of that city. + +2. The births, for the same time, are 73,683, the medium or sixth part +whereof is 12,280, which is about five-eighth parts of the burials, and +shows that London would in time decrease quite away, were it not supplied +out of the country, where are about five births for four burials, the +proportion of breeders in the country being greater than in the city. + +3. The burials in Dublin for the said six years were 9,865, the sixth +part or medium whereof is 1,644, which is about the twelfth part of the +London burials, and about a fifth part over. So as the people of London +do hereby seem to be above twelve times as many as those of Dublin. + +4. The births in the same time at Dublin are 6,157, the sixth part or +medium whereof is 1,026, which is also about five-eighth parts of the +1,644 burials, which shows that the proportion between burials and births +are alike at London and Dublin, and that the accounts are kept alike, and +consequently are likely to be true, there being no confederacy for that +purpose; which, if they be true, we then say— + +5. That the births are the best way (till the accounts of the people +shall be purposely taken) whereby to judge of the increase and decrease +of people, that of burials being subject to more contingencies and +variety of causes. + +6. If births be as yet the measure of the people, and that the births +(as has been shown) are as five to eight, then eight-fifths of the births +is the number of the burials, where the year was not considerable for +extraordinary sickness or salubrity, and is the rule whereby to measure +the same. As for example, the medium of births in Dublin was 1,026, the +eight-fifths whereof is 1,641, but the real burials were 1,644; so as in +the said years they differed little from the 1,641, which was the +standard of health, and consequently the years 1680, 1674, and 1668 were +sickly years, more or less, as they exceeded the said number, 1,641; and +the rest were healthful years, more or less, as they fell short of the +same number. But the city was more or less populous, as the births +differed from the number 1,026, viz., populous in the years 1680, 1679, +1678, and 1668, for other causes of this difference in births are very +occult and uncertain. + +7. What hath been said of Dublin, serves also for London. + +8. It hath already been observed by the London bills that there are more +males than females. It is to be further noted, that in these six London +bills, also, there is not one instance either in the births or burials to +the contrary. + +9. It hath been formerly observed that in the years wherein most die +fewest are born, and _vice versa_. The same may be further observed in +males and females, viz., when fewest males are born then most die: for +here the males died as twelve to eleven, which is above the mean +proportion of fourteen to thirteen, but were born but as nineteen to +eighteen, which is below the same. + + +_Observations upon the Table B_. + + +1. From the Table B it appears that the medium of the fifteen years’ +burials (being 24,199) is 1,613, whereas the medium of the other six +years in the Table A was 1,644, and that the medium of the fifteen years’ +births (being in all 14,765) is 984, whereas the medium of the said other +six years was 1,026. That is to say, there were both fewer births and +burials in these fifteen years than in the other six years, which is a +probable sign that at a medium there were fewer people also. + +2. The medium of births for the fifteen years being 984, whereof +eight-fifths (being 1,576) is the standard of health for the said fifteen +years; and the triple of the said 1,576 being 4,728, is the standard for +each of the ternaries of the fifteen years within the said table. + +3. That 2,952, the triple of 984 births, is for each ternary the +standard of people’s increase and decrease from the year 1666 to 1680 +inclusive, viz., the people increased in the second ternary, and +decreased from the same in the third and fourth ternaries, but +re-increased in the fifth ternary beyond any other. + +4. That the last ternary was withal very healthful, the burials being +but 4,624, viz., below 4,728, the standard. + +5. That according to this proportion of increase, the housing of Dublin +have probably increased also. + + +_Observations upon the Table C_. + + +1. First, from the Table C it appears, 1. That the housing of Dublin is +such, as that there are not five hearths in each house one with another, +but nearer five than four. + +2. That in St. Warburgh’s parish are near six hearths to a house. In +St. John’s five. In St. Michael’s above five. In St. Nicholas Within +above six. In Christ Church above seven. In St. James’s and St. +Katherine’s, and in St. Michan’s, not four. In St. Kevin’s about four. + +3. That in St. James’s, St. Michan’s, St. Bride’s, St. Warburgh’s, St. +Andrew’s, St. Michael’s, and St. Patrick’s, all the christenings were but +550, and the burials 1,055, viz., near double; and that in the rest of +the parishes the christenings were five, and the burials seven, viz., as +457 to 634. Now whether the cause of this difference was negligence in +accounts, or the greaterness of the families, &c., is worth inquiring. + +4. It is hard to say in what order (as to greatness) these parishes +ought to stand, some having most families, some most hearths, some most +births, and others most burials. Some parishes exceeding the rest in +two, others in three of the said four particulars, but none in all four. +Wherefore this table ranketh them according to the plurality of the said +four particulars wherein each excelleth the other. + +5. The London observations reckon eight heads in each family, according +to which estimation, there are 32,000 souls in the 4,000 families of +Dublin, which is but half of what most men imagine, of which but about +one sixth part are able to bear arms, besides the royal regiment. + +6. Without the knowledge of the true number of people, as a principle, +the whole scope and use of the keeping bills of births and burials is +impaired; wherefore by laborious conjectures and calculations to deduce +the number of people from the births and burials, may be ingenious, but +very preposterous. + +7. If the number of families in Dublin be about 4,000, then ten men in +one week (at the charge of about £5 surveying eight families in an hour) +may directly, and without algebra, make an account of the whole people, +expressing their several ages, sex, marriages, title, trade, religion, +&c., and those who survey the hearths, or the constables or the parish +clerks (may, if required) do the same ex officio, and without other +charge, by the command of the chief governor, the diocesan, or the mayor. + +8. The bills of London have since their beginning admitted several +alterations and improvements, and £8 or £10 per annum surcharge, would +make the bills of Dublin to exceed all others, and become an excellent +instrument of Government. To which purpose the forms for weekly, +quarterly, and yearly bills are humbly recommended, viz. + + + +TABLE A—YEARLY BILLS OF MORTALITY FOR + + LONDON DUBLIN LONDON +A.D. Burials Births Burials Births Male Female Male Female + 1680 21,053 12,747 1,826 1,096 11,039 10,044 6,543 6,041 + 1679 21,730 12,288 1,397 1,061 11,154 10,576 6,247 6,041 + 1678 20,678 12,601 1,401 1,045 10,681 9,977 6,568 6,033 + 1674 21,201 11,851 2,106 942 11,000 10,196 6,113 5,738 + 1672 18,230 12,563 1,436 987 9,560 8,070 6,443 6,120 + 1668 17,278 11,633 1,699 1,026 9,111 8,167 6,073 5,566 + 120,170 73,683 9,865 6,157 62,545 57,030 37,992 35,697 + The medium or 6th part whereof is part whereof is + 20,028 12,280 1,644 1,026 10,424 9,505 6,332 5,949 + +TABLE B.—DUBLIN. + + A.D. Burials. Births. In Ternaries of Years + 1666 1,480 952 4,821 2,979 + 1667 1,642 1,001 + 1668 1,699 1,026 + 1669 1,666 1,000 5,353 3,070 + 1670 1,713 1,067 + 1671 1,974 1,003 + 1672 1,436 967 5,073 2,842 + 1673 1,531 933 + 1674 2,106 942 + 1675 1,578 823 4,328 2,672 + 1676 1,391 952 + 1677 1,359 897 + 1678 1,401 1,045 4,624 3,202 + 1679 1,397 1,061 + 1680 1,826 1,096 + 24,199 14,765 24,199 14,765 + The medium or 15th part whereof is + 1,613 984 1,613 984 + +TABLE C. + + THE A.D. 1671. A.D., 1670–71–72 at a +PARISHES OF medium + DUBLIN + Families Hearths Births Burials +St. 661 2,399 161 290 +Katherine’s +and St. +James’s +St. 490 2,348 207 262 +Nicholas +Without +St. 656 2,301 127 221 +Michan’s +St. 483 2,123 108 178 +Andrew’s +with +Donnybrook +St. 416 1,989 70 100 +Bridget’s +St. John’s 244 1,337 70 138 +St. 267 1,650 54 103 +Warburgh’s +St. 216 1,081 53 121 +Audaen’s +St. 140 793 44 59 +Michael’s +St. Kevin’s 106 433 64 133 +St. 93 614 28 34 +Nicholas +Within +St. 52 255 21 44 +Patrick’s +Liberties +Christ 26 197 — 1 +Church and +Trinity +College, +per +estimate + 3,850 17,500 1,013 1,696 +Houses 150 550 +built +between +1671 and +1681, per +estimate + 4,000 18,150 + +A WEEKLY BILL OF MORTALITY FOR THE CITY OF DUBLIN, Ending the XXX day of +XXX 1681. {75} + + PARISHES’ NAMES. Births Males Females Burials Under 16 Plague Small Pox Measles Spotted + years old Fever +St. Katharine’s and +St. James’s +St. Nicholas Without +St. Michan’s +St. Andrew’s with +Donnybrook +St. Bridget’s +St. John’s +St. Warburgh’s +St. Audaen’s +St. Michael’s +St. Kevin’s +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick’s +Liberties +Christ Church and +Trinity College +Totals + +A QUARTERLY BILL OF MORTALITY, Beginning XXX and ending XXX for the City +of DUBLIN {76} + +PARISHES’ NAMES. Births 1. Marriages 2. Buried under 16 Buried above 60 Measles, Consumption, Fever, Aged above 70 Infants under 2 All other + years olds years old Spotted Fever, Dropsy, Gout, Pleurisy, years old years old Casualties + Small Pox, Stone Quinsy, Sudden + Plague Death +St. Katharine’s +and St. James’s +St. Nicholas +Without +St. Michan’s +St. Andrew’s with +Donnybrook +St. Bridget’s +St. John’s +St. Warburgh’s +St. Audaen’s +St. Michael’s +St. Kevin’s +St. Nicholas +Within +St. Patrick’s +Liberties +Christ Church and +Trinity College +Totals + + * * * * * + + + +AN ACCOUNT OF THE PEOPLE OF DUBLIN FOR ONE YEAR, Ending the 24th of +March, 1681. {77} + +PARISHES’ NAMES. Number of Whereof Married Persons of Protestants Papists Of all other Births Burials Marriages + person Persons religions + Males Females Under 16 Above 60 of above 16 years old + years old years old +St. Katharine’s and +St. James’s +St. Nicholas +Without +St. Michan’s +St. Andrew’s with +Donnybrook +St. Bridget’s +St. John’s +St. Warburgh’s +St. Audaen’s +St. Michael’s +St. Kevin’s +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick’s +Liberties +Christ Church and +Trinity College +Totals + +CASUALTIES AND DISEASES. + +Aged above 70 years Epilepsy and planet +Abortive and still-born Fever and ague +Childbed women Pleurisy +Convulsion Quinsy +Teeth Executed, murdered, drowned +Worms Plague and spotted fever +Gout and sciatica Griping of the guts +Stone Scouring, vomiting bleeding +Palsy Small pox +Consumption and French pox Measles +Dropsy and tympany Neither of all the other sorts +Rickets and livergrown +Headache and megrim + +A POSTSCRIPT TO THE STATIONER. + + +WHEREAS you complain that these observations make no sufficient bulk, I +could answer you that I wish the bulk of all books were less; but do +nevertheless comply with you in adding what follows, viz.: + +1. That the parishes of Dublin are very unequal; some having in them +above 600 families, and others under thirty. + +2. That thirteen parishes are too few for 4,000 families; the middling +parishes of London containing 120 families; according to which rate there +should be about thirty-three parishes in Dublin. + +3. It is said that there are 84,000 houses or families in London, which +is twenty-one times more than are in Dublin, and yet the births and +burials of London are but twelve times those of Dublin, which shows that +the inhabitants of Dublin are more crowded and straitened in their +housing than those of London; and consequently that to increase the +buildings of Dublin will make that city more conformable to London. + +4. I shall also add some reasons for altering the present forms of the +Dublin bills of mortality, according to what hath been here +recommended—viz.: + +1. We give the distinctions of males and females in the births only; for +that the burials must, at one time or another, be in the same proportion +with the births. + +2. We do in the weekly and quarterly bills propose that notice be taken +in the burials of what numbers die above sixty and seventy, and what +under sixteen, six, and two years old, foreseeing good uses to be made of +that distinction. + +3. We do in the yearly bill reduce the casualties to about twenty-four, +being such as may be discerned by common sense, and without art, +conceiving that more will but perplex and imbroil the account. And in +the quarterly bills we reduce the diseases to three heads—viz., +contagious, acute, and chronical, applying this distinction to parishes, +in order to know how the different situation, soil, and way of living in +each parish doth dispose men to each of the said three species; and in +the weekly bills we take notice not only of the plague, but of the other +contagious diseases in each parish, that strangers and fearful persons +may thereby know how to dispose of themselves. + +4. We mention the number of the people, as the fundamental term in all +our proportions; and without which all the rest will be almost fruitless. + +5. We mention the number of marriages made in every quarter, and in +every year, as also the proportion which married persons bear to the +whole, expecting in such observations to read the improvement of the +nation. + +6. As for religions, we reduce them to three—viz.: (1) those who have +the Pope of Rome for their head; (2) who are governed by the laws of +their country; (3) those who rely respectively upon their own private +judgments. Now, whether these distinctions should be taken notice of or +not, we do but faintly recommend, seeing many reasons _pro_ and _con_ for +the same; and, therefore, although we have mentioned it as a matter fit +to be considered, yet we humbly leave it to authority. + + + + +TWO ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC, + + + _Concerning the People_, _Housing_, _Hospitals_, _&c._, _of London and + Paris_. + + + +TO THE KING’S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY. + + +I DO presume, in a very small paper, to show your Majesty that your City +of London seems more considerable than the two best cities of the French +monarchy, and for aught I can find, greater than any other of the +universe, which because I can say without flattery, and by such +demonstration as your Majesty can examine, I humbly pray your Majesty to +accept from + + Your Majesty’s + + Most humble, loyal, and obedient subject, + WILLIAM PETTY. + + + +AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC + + +_Tending to prove that London hath more people and housing than the +cities of Paris and Rouen put together_, _and is also more considerable +in several other respects_. + +1. THE medium of the burials at London in the three last years—viz., +1683, 1684, and 1685, wherein there was no extraordinary sickness, and +wherein the christenings do correspond in their ordinary proportions with +the burials and christenings of each year one with another, was 22,337, +and the like medium of burials for the three last Paris bills we could +procure—viz., for the years 1682, 1683, and 1684 (whereof the last as +appears by the christenings to have been very sickly), is 19,887. + +2. The city of Bristol in England appears to be by good estimate of its +trade and customs as great as Rouen in France, and the city of Dublin in +Ireland appears to have more chimneys than Bristol, and consequently more +people, and the burials in Dublin were, A.D. 1682 (being a sickly year) +but 2,263. + +3. Now the burials of Paris (being 19,887) being added to the burials of +Dublin (supposed more than at Rouen) being 2,263, makes but 22,150, +whereas the burials of London were 187 more, or 22,337, or as about 6 to +7. + +4. If those who die unnecessarily, and by miscarriage in L’Hôtel Dieu in +Paris (being above 3,000), as hath been elsewhere shown, or any part +thereof, should be subtracted out of the Paris burials aforementioned, +then our assertion will be stronger, and more proportionable to what +follows concerning the housing of those cities, viz.: + +5. There were burnt at London, A.D. 1666, above 13,000 houses, which +being but a fifth part of the whole, the whole number of houses in the +said year were above 65,000; and whereas the ordinary burials of London +have increased between the years 1666 and 1686, above one-third the total +of the houses at London, A.D. 1686, must be about 87,000, which A.D. +1682, appeared by account to have been 84,000. + +6. Monsieur Moreri, the great French author of the late geographical +dictionaries, who makes Paris the greatest city in the world, doth reckon +but 50,000 houses in the same, and other authors and knowing men much +less; nor are there full 7,000 houses in the city of Dublin, so as if the +50,000 houses of Paris, and the 7,000 houses in the city of Dublin were +added together, the total is but 57,000 houses, whereas those of London +are 87,000 as aforesaid, or as 6 to 9. + +7. As for the shipping and foreign commerce of London, the common sense +of all men doth judge it to be far greater than that of Paris and Rouen +put together. + +8. As to the wealth and gain accruing to the inhabitants of London and +Paris by law-suits (or _La chicane_) I only say that the courts of London +extend to all England and Wales, and affect seven millions of people, +whereas those of Paris do not extend near so far. Moreover, there is no +palpable conspicuous argument at Paris for the number and wealth of +lawyers like the buildings and chambers in the two Temples, Lincoln’s +Inn, Gray’s Inn, Doctors’ Commons, and the seven other inns in which are +chimneys, which are to be seen at London, besides many lodgings, halls, +and offices, relating to the same. + +9. As to the plentiful and easy living of the people we say, + +(a.) That the people of Paris to those of London, being as about 6 to 7, +and the housing of the same as about 6 to 9, we infer that the people do +not live at London so close and crowded as at Paris, but can afford +themselves more room and liberty. + +(b.) That at London the hospitals are better and more desirable than +those of Paris, for that in the best at Paris there die two out of +fifteen, whereas at London there die out of the worst scarce 2 out of 16, +and yet but a fiftieth part of the whole die out of the hospitals at +London, and two-fifths, or twenty times that proportion die out of the +Paris hospitals which are of the same kind; that is to say, the number of +those at London, who choose to lie sick in hospitals rather than in their +own houses, are to the like people of Paris as one to twenty; which shows +the greater poverty or want of means in the people of Paris than those of +London. + +(c.) We infer from the premises, viz., the dying scarce two of sixteen +out of the London hospitals, and about two of fifteen in the best of +Paris, to say nothing of L’Hôtel Dieu, that either the physicians and +chirurgeons of London are better than those of Paris, or that the air of +London is more wholesome. + +10. As for the other great cities of the world, if Paris were the +greatest we need say no more in behalf of London. As for Pekin in China, +we have no account fit to reason upon; nor is there anything in the +description of the two late voyages of the Chinese emperor from that city +into East and West Tartary, in the years 1682 and 1683, which can make us +recant what we have said concerning London. As for Delhi and Agra, +belonging to the Mogul, we find nothing against our position, but much to +show the vast numbers which attend that emperor in his business and +pleasures. + +11. We shall conclude with Constantinople and Grand Cairo; as for +Constantinople it hath been said by one who endeavoured to show the +greatness of that city, and the greatness of the plague which raged in +it, that there died 1,500 per diem, without other circumstances; to which +we answer, that in the year 1665 there died in London 1,200 per diem, and +it hath been well proved that the Plague of London never carried away +above one-fifth of the people, whereas it is commonly believed that in +Constantinople, and other eastern cities, and even in Italy and Spain, +that the plague takes away two-fifths, one half, or more; wherefore where +1,200 is but one-fifth of the people it is probable that the number was +greater, than where 1,500 was two-fifths or one half, &c. + +12. As for Grand Cairo it is reported, that 73,000 died in ten weeks, or +1,000 per diem, where note, that at Grand Cairo the plague comes and goes +away suddenly, and that the plague takes away two or three-fifths parts +of the people as aforesaid; so as 73,000 was probably the number of those +that died of the plague in one whole year at Grand Cairo, whereas at +London, A.D. 1665, 97,000 were brought to account to have died in that +year. Wherefore it is certain, that that city wherein 97,000 was but +one-fifth of the people, the number was greater than where 73,000 was +two-fifths or the half. + +We therefore conclude, that London hath more people, housing, shipping, +and wealth, than Paris and Rouen put together; and for aught yet appears, +is more considerable than any other city in the universe, which was +propounded to be proved. + + + +AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC, + + +_Tending to prove that in the hospital called L’Hôtel Dieu at Paris_, +_there die above 3,000 per annum by reason of ill accommodation_. + +1. IT appears that A.D. 1678 there entered into the Hospital of La +Charité 2,647 souls, of which there died there within the said year 338, +which is above an eighth part of the said 2,647; and that in the same +year there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 21,491, and that there died out of +that number 5,630, which is above one quarter, so as about half the said +5,630, being 2,815, seem to have died for want of as good usage and +accommodation as might have been had at La Charité. + +2. Moreover, in the year 1679 there entered into La Charité 3,118, of +which there died 452, which is above a seventh part, and in the same year +there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 28,635, of which there died 8,397; and in +both the said years 1678 and 1679 (being very different in their degrees +of mortality) there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 28,635 and 2l,491—in all +50,126, the medium whereof is 25,063; and there died out of the same in +the said two years, 5,630 and 8,397—in all 14,027, the medium whereof is +7,013. + +3. There entered in the said years into La Charité 2,647 and 3,118, in +all 5,765, the medium whereof is 2,882, whereof there died 338 and 452, +in all 790, the medium whereof is 395. + +4. Now, if there died out of L’Hôtel Dieu 7,013 per annum, and that the +proportion of those that died out of L’Hôtel Dieu is double to those that +died out of La Charité (as by the above numbers it appears to be near +thereabouts), then it follows that half the said numbers of 7,013, being +3,506, did not die by natural necessity, but by the evil administration +of that hospital. + +5. This conclusion seemed at the first sight very strange, and rather to +be some mistake or chance than a solid and real truth; but considering +the same matter as it appeared at London, we were more reconciled to the +belief of it, viz.:— + +(_a_.) In the Hospital of St. Bartholomew in London, there was sent out +and cured in the year 1685, 1,764 persons, and there died out of the said +hospital 252. Moreover, there were sent out and cured out of St. +Thomas’s Hospital 1,523, and buried, 209—that is to say, there were cured +in both hospitals 3,287, and buried out of both hospitals 461, and +consequently cured and buried 3,748, of which number the 461 buried is +less than an eighth part; whereas at La Charité the part that died was +more than an eighth part; which shows that out of the most poor and +wretched hospitals of London there died fewer in proportion than out of +the best in Paris. + +(_b_.) Furthermore, it hath been above shown that there died out of La +Charité at a medium 395 per annum, and 141 out of Les Incurables, making +in all 536; and that out of St. Bartholomew’s and St. Thomas’s Hospitals, +London, there died at a medium but 461, of which Les Incurables are part; +which shows that although there be more people in London than in Paris, +yet there went at London not so many people to hospitals as there did at +Paris, although the poorest hospitals at London were better than the best +at Paris; which shows that the poorest people at London have better +accommodation in their own houses than the best hospital of Paris +affordeth. + +6. Having proved that there die about 3,506 persons at Paris +unnecessarily, to the damage of France, we come next to compute the value +of the said damage, and of the remedy thereof, as follows, viz., the +value of the said 3,506 at 60 livres sterling per head, being about the +value of Argier slaves (which is less than the intrinsic value of people +at Paris), the whole loss of the subjects of France in that hospital +seems to be 60 times 3,506 livres sterling per annum, viz., 210,360 +livres sterling, equivalent to about 2,524,320 French livres. + +7. It hath appeared that there came into L’Hôtel Dieu at a medium 25,063 +per annum, or 2,089 _per mensem_, and that the whole stock of what +remained in the precedent months is at a medium about 2,108 (as may +appear by the third line of the Table No. 5, which shall be shortly +published), viz., the medium of months is 2,410 for the sickly year 1679, +whereunto 1,806 being added as the medium of months for the year 1678, +makes 4,216, the medium whereof is the 2,108 above mentioned; which +number being added to the 2,089 which entered each month, makes 4,197 for +the number of sick which are supposed to be always in L’Hôtel Dieu one +time with another. + +8. Now, if 60 French livres per annum for each of the said 4,197 sick +persons were added to the present ordinary expense of that hospital +(amounting to an addition of 251,820 livres), it seems that so many lives +might be saved as are worth above ten times that sum, and this by doing a +manifest deed of charity to mankind. + +_Memorandum_.—That A.D. 1685, the burials of London were 23,222, and +those of Amsterdam 6,245; from whence, and the difference of air, it is +probable that the people of London are quadruple to those of Amsterdam. + + + + +OBSERVATIONS UPON THE CITIES OF LONDON AND ROME. + + +1. THAT before the year 1630 the christenings at London exceeded the +burials of the same, but about the year 1655 they were scarce half; and +now about two-thirds. + +2. Before the restoration of monarchy in England, A.D. 1660, the people +of Paris were more than those of London and Dublin put together, whereas +now, the people of London are more than those of Paris and Rome, or of +Paris and Rouen. + +3. A.D. 1665 one fifth part of the then people of London, or 97,000, +died of the plague, and in the next year, 1666, 13,000 houses, or one +fifth part of all the housing of London, were burnt also. + +4. At the birth of Christ old Rome was the greatest city of the world, +and London the greatest at the coronation of King James II., and near six +times as great as the present Rome, wherein are 119,000 souls besides +Jews. + +5. In the years of King Charles II.’s death, and King James II.’s +coronation (which were neither of them remarkable for extraordinary +sickliness or healthfulness) the burials did wonderfully agree, viz., +A.D. 1684, they were 23,202, and A.D. 1685, they were 23,222, the medium +whereof is 23,212. And the christenings did very wonderfully agree also, +having been A.D. 1684, 14,702, and A.D. 1685, 14,732, the medium whereof +is 14,716, which consistence was never seen before, the said number of +23,212 burials making the people of London to be 696,360, at the rate of +one dying per annum out of 30. + +6. Since the great Fire of London, A.D. 1666, about 7 parts of 15 of the +present vast city hath been new built, and is with its people increased +near one half, and become equal to Paris and Rome put together, the one +being the seat of the great French Monarchy, and the other of the Papacy. + + + + +FIVE ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC. + + +I. Objections from the city of Ray in Persia, and from Monsier Auzout, +against two former essays, answered, and that London hath as many people +as Paris, Rome, and Rouen put together. + +II. A comparison between London and Paris in 14 particulars. + +III. Proofs that at London, within its 134 parishes named in the bills +of mortality, there live about 696,000 people. + +IV. An estimate of the people in London, Paris, Amsterdam, Venice, Rome, +Dublin, Bristol, and Rouen, with several observations upon the same. + +V. Concerning Holland and the rest of the Seven United Provinces. + + + +TO THE KING’S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY + + +SIR, + +YOUR MAJESTY having graciously accepted my two late essays, about the +cities and hospitals of London and Paris, as also my observations on Rome +and Rouen; I do (after six months’ waiting for what may be said against +my several doctrines by the able men of Europe) humbly present your +Majesty with a few other papers upon the same subject, to strengthen, +explain, and enlarge the former; hoping by such real arguments, better to +praise and magnify your Majesty, than by any other the most specious +words and eulogies that can be imagined by + + Your Majesty’s + + Most humble, loyal + And obedient subject, + WILLIAM PETTY. + + + +THE FIRST ESSAY. + + +IT could not be expected that an assertion of London’s being bigger than +Paris and Rouen, or than Paris and Rome put together, and bigger than any +city of the world, should escape uncontradicted; and ’tis also expected +that I (if continuing in the same persuasion), should make some reply to +those contradictions. In order whereunto, + +I begin with the ingenious author of the “_République des Lettres_,” who +saith that Rey in Persia is far bigger than London, for that in the sixth +century of Christianity (I suppose, A.D. 550 the middle of that century), +it had 15,000, or rather 44,000 mosques or Mahometan temples; to which I +reply, that I hope this objector is but in jest, for that Mahomet was not +born till about the year 570, and had no mosques till about 50 years +after. + +In the next place I reply to the excellent Monsieur Auzout’s “Letters +from Rome,” who is content that London, Westminster, and Southwark may +have as many people as Paris and its suburbs; and but faintly denieth, +that all the housing within the bills may have almost as many people as +Paris and Rouen, but saith that several parishes inserted into these +bills are distant from, and not contiguous with London, and that Grant so +understood it. + +To which (as his main if not his only objection) we answer:—(l) That the +London bills appear in Grant’s book to have been always, since the year +1636; as they now are; (2) That about fifty years since, three or four +parishes, formerly somewhat distant, were joined by interposed buildings +to the bulk of the city, and therefore then inserted into the bills; (3) +That since fifty years the whole buildings being more than double have +perfected that union, so as there is no house within the said bills from +which one may not call to some other house; (4) All this is confirmed by +authority of the king and city, and the custom of fifty years; (5) That +there are but three parishes under any colour of this exception which are +scarce one-fifty-second part of the whole. + +Upon the whole matter, upon sight of Monsieur Auzout’s large letter, +dated the 19th of November, from Rome, I made remarks upon every +paragraph thereof, but suppressing it (because it looked like a war +against a worthy person with whom I intended none, whereas, in truth, it +was but a reconciling explication of some doubts) I have chosen the +shorter and softer way of answering Monsieur Auzout as followeth, viz.:— + +Concerning the number of people in London, as also in Paris, Rouen, and +Rome, viz.:— + +Monsieur Auzout allegeth an authentic account that there are 23,223 +houses in Paris, wherein do live about eighty thousand families, and +therefore supposing three and a half families to live in every of the +said houses, one with another, the number of families will be 81,280; and +Monsier Auzout also allowing six heads to each family, the utmost number +of people in Paris, according to that opinion, will be 487,680. + +The medium of the Paris burials was not denied by Monsier Auzout to be +19,887, nor that there died 3,506 unnecessarily out of the L’Hôtel Dieu; +wherefore deducting the said last number out of the former, the net +standard for burials at Paris will be 16,381, so, as the number of people +there, allowing but one to die out of thirty (which is more advantageous +to Paris than Monsieur Auzout’s opinion of one to die out of twenty-five) +the number of people at Paris will be 491,430 more than by Monsier +Auzout’s own last-mentioned account 491,430. + +And the medium of the said two Paris accounts is 488,055. + +The medium of the London burials is really 23,212, which, multiplied by +thirty (as hath been done for Paris), the number of the people there will +be 696,360. + +The number of houses at London appears by the register to be 105,315, +whereunto adding one-tenth part of the same, or 10,315, as the least +number of double families that can be supposed in London, the total of +families will be 115,840, and allowing six heads for each family, as was +done for Paris, the total of the people at London will be 695,076. + +The medium of the two last London accounts is 695,718. +So, as the people of Paris, according to the above 488,055. +account, is +Of Rouen, according to Monsieur Auzout’s utmost demands 80,000. +Of Rome, according to his own report thereof in a 125,000. +former letter +Total 693,055. + +So as there are more people at London than at Paris, Rouen, and Rome by +2,663. + +Memorandum.—That the parishes of Islington, Newington, and Hackney, for +which only there is any colour of non-contiguity, is not one-fifty-second +part of what is contained in the bills of mortality, and consequently +London, without the said three parishes, hath more people than Paris and +Rouen put together, by 114,284. + +Which number of 114,284 is probably more people than any other city of +France contains. + + + +THE SECOND ESSAY. + + +As for other comparisons of London with Paris, we farther repeat and +enlarge what hath been formerly said upon those matters, as followeth, +viz.:— + +1. That forty per cent. die out of the hospitals at Paris where so many +die unnecessarily, and scarce one-twentieth of that proportion out of the +hospitals of London, which have been shown to be better than the best of +Paris. + +2. That at Paris 81,280 kitchens are within less than 24,000 +street-doors, which makes less cleanly and convenient way of living than +at London. + +3. Where the number of christenings are near unto, or exceed the +burials, the people are poorer, having few servants and little equipage. + +4. The river Thames is more pleasant and navigable than the Seine, and +its waters better and more wholesome; and the bridge of London is the +most considerable of all Europe. + +5. The shipping and foreign trade of London is incomparably greater than +that at Paris and Rouen. + +6. The lawyers’ chambers at London have 2,772 chimnies in them, and are +worth £140,000 sterling, or 3,000,000 of French livres, besides the +dwellings of their families elsewhere. + +7. The air is more wholesome, for that at London scarce two of sixteen +die out of the worst hospitals, but at Paris above two of fifteen out of +the best. Moreover the burials of Paris are one-fifth part above and +below the medium, but at London not above one-twelfth, so as the +intemperies of the air at Paris is far greater than at London. + +8. The fuel cheaper, and lies in less room, the coals being a wholesome +sulphurous bitumen. + +9. All the most necessary sorts of victuals, and of fish, are cheaper, +and drinks of all sorts in greater variety and plenty. + +10. The churches of London we leave to be judged by thinking that +nothing at Paris is so great as St. Paul’s was, and is like to be, nor so +beautiful as Henry the Seventh’s chapel. + +11. On the other hand, it is probable, that there is more money in Paris +than London, if the public revenue (grossly speaking, quadruple to that +of England) be lodged there. + +12. Paris hath not been for these last fifty years so much infested with +the plague as London; now that at London the plague (which between the +years 1591 and 1666 made five returns, viz., every fifteen years, at a +medium, and at each time carried away one-fifth of the people) hath not +been known for the 21 years last past, and there is a visible way by +God’s ordinary blessing to lessen the same by two-thirds when it next +appeareth. + +13. As to the ground upon which Paris stands in respect of London, we +say, that if there be five stories or floors of housing at Paris, for +four at London, or in that proportion, then the 82,000 families of Paris +stand upon the equivalent of 65,000 London housteds, and if there be +115,000 families at London, and but 82,000 at Paris, then the proportion +of the London ground to that of Paris is as 115 to sixty-five, or as +twenty-three to thirteen. + +14. Moreover Paris is said to be an oval of three English miles long and +two and a half broad, the area whereof contains but five and a half +square miles; but London is seven miles long, and one and a quarter broad +at a medium, which makes an area of near nine square miles, which +proportion of five and half to nine differs little from that of thirteen +to twenty-three. + +15. Memorandum, that in Nero’s time, as Monsieur Chivreau reporteth, +there died 300,000 people of the plague in old Rome; now if there died +three of ten then and there, being a hotter country, as there dies two of +ten at London, the number of people at that time, was but a million, +whereas at London they are now about 700,000. Moreover the ground within +the walls of old Rome was a circle but of three miles diameter, whose +area is about seven square miles, and the suburbs scarce as much more, in +all about thirteen square miles, whereas the built ground at London is +about nine square miles as aforesaid; which two sorts of proportions +agree with each other, and consequently old Rome seems but to have been +half as big again as the present London, which we offer to antiquaries. + + + +THE THIRD ESSAY. + + +PROOFS that the number of people in the 134 parishes of the London bills +of mortality, without reference to other cities, is about 696,000, viz.— + +I know but three ways of finding the same. + +1. By the houses, and families, and heads living in each. + +2. By the number of burials in healthful times, and by the proportion of +those that live, to those that die. + +3. By the number of those who die of the plague in pestilential years, +in proportion to those that escape. + + +_The First Way_. + + +To know the number of houses, I used three methods, viz.— + +1. The number of houses which were burnt A.D. 1666, which by authentic +report was 13,200; next what proportion the people who died out of those +houses, bore to the whole; which I find A.D. 1686, to be but one seventh +part, but A.D. 1666 to be almost one-fifth, from whence I infer the whole +housing of London A.D. 1666 to have been 66,000, then finding the burials +A.D. 1666 to be to those of 1686 as 3 to 4,I pitch upon 88,000 to be the +number of housing A.D. 1686. + +2. Those who have been employed in making the general map of London, set +forth in the year 1682, told me that in that year they had found above +84,000 houses to be in London, wherefore A.D. 1686, or in four years +more, there might be one-tenth or 8,400 houses more (London doubling in +forty years) so as the whole, A.D. 1686 might be 92,400. + +3. I found that A.D. 1685, there were 29,325 hearths in Dublin, and +6,400 houses, and in London 388 thousand hearths, whereby there must have +been at that rate 87,000 houses in London. Moreover I found that in +Bristol there were in the same year 16,752 hearth; and 5,307 houses, and +in London 388,000 hearths as aforesaid; at which rate there must have +been 123,000 houses in London, and at a medium between Dublin and Bristol +proportions 105,000 houses. + +Lastly, by certificate from the hearth office, I find the houses within +the bills of mortality to be 105,315. + +Having thus found the houses, I proceed next to the number of families in +them, and first I thought that if there were three or four families or +kitchens in every house of Paris, there might be two families in +one-tenth of the housing of London; unto which supposition, the common +opinion of several friends doth concur with my own conjectures. + +As to the number of heads in each family, I stick to Grant’s observation +in page — of his fifth edition, that in tradesmen of London’s families +there be eight heads one with another, in families of higher ranks, above +ten, and in the poorest near live, according to which proportions, I had +upon another occasion pitched the medium of heads in all the families of +England to be six and one-third, but quitting the fraction in this case, +I agree with Monsieur Auzout for six. + +To conclude, the houses of London being 105,315 and the addition of +double families 10,531 more, in all 115,846; I multiplied the same by +six, which produced 695,076 for the number of the people. + + +_The Second Way_. + + +I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, and both +healthful, did wonderfully agree in their burials, viz., 1684 they were +23,202, and A.D. 1685 23,222, the medium whereof is 23,212; moreover that +the christenings 1684 were 14,702, and those A.D. 1685 were 14,730, +wherefore I multiplied the medium of burials 23,212 by 30, supposing that +one dies out of 30 at London, which made the number of people 696,360 +souls. + +Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London or thereabouts, I say— + +1. That Grant in the — page of his fifth edition, affirmeth from +observation, that 3 died of 88 per annum which is near the same +proportion. + +2. I found that out of healthful places, and out of adult persons, there +dies much fewer, as but one out of 50 among our parliament men, and that +the kings of England having reigned 24 years one with another, probably +lived above 30 years each. + +3. Grant, page — hath shown that but about one of 20 die per annum out +of young children under 10 years old, and Monsieur Auzout thinks that but +1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion of adult persons +there, wherefore we still stick as a medium to the number 30. + +4. In nine country parishes lying in several parts of England, I find +that but one of 37 hath died per annum, or 311 out of 11,507, wherefore +till I see another round number, grounded upon many observations, nearer +than 30, I hope to have done pretty well in multiplying our burials by 30 +to find the number of the people, the product being 696,360, and what we +find by the families they are 695,076, as aforesaid. + + +_The Third Way_. + + +It was proved by Grant, that one-fifth of the people died of the plague, +but A.D. 1665 there died of the plague near 98,000 persons, the quintuple +whereof is 490,000 as the number of people in the year 1665, whereunto +adding above one-third, as the increase between 1665 and 1686, the total +is 653,000, agreeing well enough with the other two computations above +mentioned. + +Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue till a better be put in +its place. + +_Memorandum_. That two or three hundred new houses would make a +contiguity of two or three other great parishes, with the 134 already +mentioned in the bills of mortality: and that an oval wall of about +twenty miles in compass would enclose the same, and all the shipping at +Deptford and Blackwall, and would also fence in 20,000 acres of land, and +lay the foundation or designation of several vast advantages to the +owners, and inhabitants of that ground, as also to the whole nation and +government. + + + +THE FOURTH ESSAY. + + +_Concerning the proportions of People in the eight eminent Cities of +Christendom undernamed_, viz.:— + +1. WE have by the number of burials in healthful years, and by the +proportion of the living to those who die yearly, as also by the number +of houses and families within the 134 parishes called London, and the +estimate of the heads in each, pitched upon the number of people in that +city to be at a medium 695,718. + +2. We have, by allowing that at Paris above 80,000 families, viz., +81,280, do live in 23,223 houses, 32 palaces, and 38 colleges, or that +there are 81,280 kitchens within less than 24,000 street doors; as also +by allowing 30 heads for every one that died necessarily there; we have +pitched upon the number of people there at a medium to be 488,055, nor +have we restrained them to 300,000, by allowing with Monsieur Auzout 6 +heads for each of Moreri’s 50,000 houses or families. + +3. To Amsterdam we allow 187,350 souls, viz., 30 times the number of +their burials, which were 6,245 in the year 1685. + +4. To Venice we allow 134,000 souls, as found there in a special account +taken by authority, about ten years since, when the city abounded with +such as returned from Candia, then surrendered to the Turks. + +5. To Rome we allow 119,000 Christians, and 6,000 Jews, in all 125,000 +souls, according to an account sent thither of the same by Monsieur +Auzout. + +6. To Dublin we allow (as to Amsterdam) 30 times its burials, the medium +whereof for the last two years is 2,303, viz., 69,090 souls. + +7. As to Bristol, we say that if the 6,400 houses of Dublin give 69,090 +people, that the 5,307 houses of Bristol must give above 56,000 people. +Moreover, if the 29,325 hearths of Dublin give 69,090 people, the 16,752 +hearths of Bristol must give about 40,000; but the medium of 56,000 and +40,000 is 48,000. + +8. As for Rouen, we have no help, but Monsieur Auzout’s fancy of 80,000 +souls to be in that city, and the conjecture of knowing men that Rouen is +between the one-seventh and one-eighth part of Paris, and also that it is +by a third bigger than Bristol; by all which, we estimate, till farther +light, that Rouen hath at most but 66,000 people in it. + +Now it may be wondered why we mentioned Rouen at all, having had so +little knowledge of it; whereunto we answer, that we did not think it +just to compare London with Paris, as to shipping and foreign trade, +without adding Rouen thereunto, Rouen being to Paris as that part of +London which is below the bridge, is to what is above it. + +All which we heartily submit to the correction of the curious and candid, +in the meantime observing according to the gross numbers under-mentioned. + +London 696,000 +Paris 488,000 +Amsterdam 187,000 +Venice 134,000 +Rome 125,000 +Dublin 69,000 +Bristol 48,000 +Rouen 66,000 + +_Observations on the said Eight Cities_. + + +1. That the people of + +Paris being 488,000 +Rome 125,000 +Rouen 66,000 +do make in all but 679,000 + +or 17,000 less than the 696,000 of London alone. + +2. That the people of the two English cities and emporiums—viz., of +London, 696,000, and Bristol, 48,000—do make 744,000, or more than + +In Paris 488,000 +Amsterdam 187,090 +Rouen 66,000 +Being in all 741,000 + +3. That the same two English cities seem equivalent + +To Paris, which hath 488,000 souls. + Rouen 66,000 + Lyons 100,000 + Toulouse 90,000 +In all 744,000 + +If there be any error in these conjectures concerning these cities of +France, we hope they will be mended by those whom we hear to be now at +work upon that matter. + +4. That the King of England’s three cities, viz.: + + King’s Cities Exceed +London 696,000 Paris 488,000 +Dublin 69,000 Amsterdam 187,000 +Bristol 48,000 Venice 134,000 +In all 813,000 Being but 809,000 + +5. That of the four great emporiums, London, Amsterdam, Venice, and +Rouen, London alone is near double to the other three, viz., above 7 to +4. + +Amsterdam 187,000 +Venice 134,000 +Rouen 66,000 387,000 + × 2 + 774,000 London 696,000 + +6. That London, for aught appears, is the greatest and most considerable +city of the world, but manifestly the greatest emporium. + +When these assertions have passed the examen of the critics, we shall +make another essay, showing how to apply those truths to the honour and +profit of the King and Kingdom of England. + + + +THE FIFTH ESSAY. + + + _Concerning Holland and the rest of the United Provinces_. + +SINCE the close of this paper, it hath been objected from Holland, that +what hath been said of the number of houses and people in London is not +like to be true; for that if it were, then London would be the two-thirds +of the whole Province of Holland. To which is answered, that London is +the two-thirds of all Holland, and more, that province having not +1,044,000 inhabitants (whereof 696,000 is the two-thirds), nor above +800,000, as we have credibly and often heard. For suppose Amsterdam +hath—as we have elsewhere noted—187,000, the seven next great cities at +30,000 each, one with another, 210,000, the ten next at 15,000 each +150,000, the ten smallest at 6,000 each 60,000—in all, the twenty-eight +walled cities and towns of Holland 607,000; in the dorps and villages +193,000, which is about one head for every four acres of land; whereas in +England there is eight acres for every head, without the cities and +market-towns. + +Now, suppose London, having 116,000 families, should have seven heads in +each—the medium between MM. Auzout’s and Grant’s reckonings—the total of +the people would be 812,000; or if we reckon that there dies one out of +thirty-four—the medium between thirty and thirty-seven above +mentioned—the total of the people would be thirty-four times 23,212, +viz., 789,208, the medium between which number and the above 812,000 is +800,604, somewhat exceeding 800,000, the supposed number of Holland. + +Furthermore, I say that upon former searches into the peopling of the +world, I never found that in any country—not in China itself—there was +more than one man to every English acre of land: many territories passing +for well-peopled where there is but one man for ten such acres. I found +by measuring Holland and West Frisia (_alias_ North Holland) upon the +best maps, that it contained but as many such acres as London doth of +people, viz., about 696,000 acres. I therefore venture to pronounce +(till better informed) that the people of London are as many as those of +Holland, or at least above two-thirds of the same, which is enough to +disable the objection above mentioned; nor is there any need to strain up +London from 696,000 to 800,000, though competent reasons have been given +to that purpose, and though the author of the excellent map of London, +set forth A.D. 1682, reckoned the people thereof (as by the said map +appears) to be 1,200,000, even when he thought the houses of the same to +be but 85,000. + +The worthy person who makes this objection in the same letter also saith— + +1. That the province of Holland hath as many people as the other six +united provinces together, and as the whole kingdom of England, and +double to the city of Paris and its suburbs; that is to say, 2,000,000 +souls. 2. He says that in London and Amsterdam, and other trading +cities, there are ten heads to every family, and that in Amsterdam there +are not 22,000 families. 3. He excepteth against the register alleged +by Monsieur Auzout, which makes 23,223 houses and above 80,000 families +to be in Paris; as also against the register alleged by Petty, making +105,315 houses to be in London, with a tenth part of the same to be of +families more than houses; and probably will except against the register +of 1,163 houses to be in all England, that number giving, at six and +one-third heads to each family, about 7,000,000 people, upon all which we +remark as follows, viz.:— + +1. That if Paris doth contain but 488,000 souls, that then all Holland +containeth but the double of that number, or 976,000, wherefore London, +containing 696,000 souls, hath above two-thirds of all Holland by 46,000. + +2. If Paris containeth half as many people as there are in all England, +it must contain 3,500,000 souls, or above seven times 488,000; and +because there do not die 20,000 per annum out of Paris, there must die +but one out of 175; whereas Monsieur Auzout thinks that there dies one +out of 25, and there must live 149 heads in every house of Paris +mentioned in the register, but there must be scarce two heads in every +house of England, all which we think fit to be reconsidered. + +I must, as an Englishman, take notice of one point more, which is, that +these assertions do reflect upon the empire of England, for that it is +said that England hath but 2,000,000 inhabitants, and it might as well +have been added, that Scotland and Ireland, with the Islands of Man, +Jersey, and Guernsey, have but two-fifths of the same number, or 800,000 +more, or that all the King of England’s subjects in Europe are but +2,800,000 souls, whereas he saith that the subjects of the seven united +provinces are 4,000,000. To which we answer that the subjects of the +said seven provinces are, by this objector’s own showing, but the +quadruple of Paris, or 1,932,000 souls, Paris containing but 488,000, as +afore hath been proved, and we do here affirm that England hath 7,000,000 +people, and that Scotland, Ireland, with the Islands of Man, Jersey, and +Guernsey, hath two-fifths of the said number, or 2,800,000 more, in all +9,800,000; whereas by the objector’s doctrine, if the seven provinces +have 1,932,000 people, the King of England’s territories should have but +seven-tenths of the same number, viz., 1,351,000, whereas we say +9,800,000, as aforesaid, which difference is so gross as that it deserves +to be thus reflected upon. + +To conclude, we expect from the concerned critics of the world that they +would prove— + +1. That Holland, and West Frisia, and the twenty-eight towns and cities +thereof, hath more people than London alone. + +2. That any three of the best cities of France, any two of all +Christendom, or any one of the world, hath the same, or better housing, +and more foreign trade than London, even in the year that King James the +Second came to the empire thereof. + + + + +OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND. + + +_Founded upon the Calculations of Gregory King_, _Lancaster Herald_, _and +forming part of_ “_An Essay upon the Probable Methods of making a People +gainers in the Balance of Trade_.” _Published in 1699_. + +THE writer of these papers has seen the natural and political +observations and conclusions upon the state and condition of England by +Gregory King, Esq., Lancaster Herald, in manuscript. The calculations +therein contained are very accurate, and more perhaps to be relied upon +than anything that has been ever done of the like kind. This skilful and +laborious gentleman has taken the right course to form his several +schemes about the numbers of the people, for besides many different ways +of working, he has very carefully inspected the poll-books, and the +distinctions made by those acts, and the produce in many of the +respective polls, going everywhere by reasonable and discreet mediums: +besides which pains, he has made observations of the very facts in +particular towns and places, from which he has been able to judge and +conclude more safely of others, so that he seems to have looked further +into this mystery than any other person. + +With his permission, we shall offer to the public such of his +computations as may be of use, and enlighten in the matter before us. + +He lays down that if the first peopling of England was by a colony or +colonies, consisting of a number between 100 and 1,000 people (which +seems probable), such colony or colonies might be brought over between +the year of the world 2400 and 2600, viz., about 800 or 900 years after +the Flood, and 1,400 or 1,500 years before the birth of Christ, at which +time the world might have about 1,000,000 families, and 4,000,000 or +5,000,000 people. + +From which hypothesis it will follow by an orderly series of increase— + +That when the Romans invaded England fifty-three years before Christ’s +time, the kingdom might have about 360,000 people, and at Christ’s birth +about 400,000. + +That at the Norman Conquest, A.D. 1066, the kingdom might contain +somewhat above 2,000,000. + +That A.D. 1260, or about 200 years after the Norman Conquest, it might +contain about 2,750,000 people, or half the present number: so that the +people of England may have doubled in about 435 years last past. + +That in all probability the next doubling will be in about 600 years to +come, viz., by the year 2300, at which time it may have about 11,000,000 +people, and the kingdom containing about 39,000,000 of acres, there will +be then about three acres and a half per head. + +That the increase of the kingdom for every hundred years of the last +preceding term of doubling, and the subsequent term of doubling, may have +been and in all probability may be, according to the following scheme:— + + Anno Domini. Number of people. Increase every hundred + years. + 1300 2,800,000 + 1400 3,300,000 440,000. + 1500 3,840,000 540,000. + 1600 4,620,000 780,000. + 1700 5,500,000 880,000. + 1800 6,420,000 920,000. + 1900 7,350,000 930,000. + 2000 8,280,000 930,000. + 2100 9,205,000 925,000. + 2200 10,115,000 910,000. + 2300 11,000,000 885,000. + +Whereby it may appear that the increase of the kingdom being 880,000 +people in the last hundred years, and 920,000 in the next succeeding +hundred years, the annual increase at this time may be about 9,000 souls +per annum. + +But whereas the yearly births of the kingdom are 190,000 souls. +about 1 in 28.95, or +And the yearly burials 1 in 32.35 or 170,000 souls. +Whereby the yearly increase would be 20,000 souls. +It is to be noted— Per ann. +1. That the allowance for 4,000 + plagues and great mortalities + may come to at a medium +2. Foreign or civil wars at a 3,500 + medium +3. The sea constantly employing 2,500 + about 40,000, may precipitate + the death of about +4. The plantations (over and 1,000 + above the accession of + foreigners) may carry away + 11,000 per + annum. +Whereby the net annual increase may be but 9,000 souls. + +That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the annual increase of the +kingdom by procreation, were it not for the before-mentioned abatements. + +The country increases annually by procreation 20,000 souls. +The cities and towns, exclusive of London, by 2,000 souls. +procreation +But London and the bills of mortality decrease 2,000 souls. +annually + +So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls per annum to keep it from +decreasing, besides a further supply of about 3,000 per annum for its +increase at this time. In all 5,000, or above a half of the kingdom’s +net increase. + +Mr. King further observes that by the assessments on marriages, births, +and burials, and the collectors’ returns thereupon, and by the parish +registers, it appears that the proportions of marriages, births, and +burials are according to the following scheme + + + +_Vide_ Scheme A. + + +Whence it may be observed that in 10,000 coexisting persons there are 71 +or 72 marriages in the country, producing 343 children; 78 marriages in +towns producing 351 children; 94 marriages in London, producing 376 +children. + +Whereby it follows— + +1. That though each marriage in London produces fewer people than in the +country, yet London in general having a greater proportion of breeders, +is more prolific than the other great towns, and the great towns are more +prolific than the country. + +2. That if the people of London of all ages were as long-lived as those +in the country, London would increase in people much faster _pro rata_ +than the country. + +3. That the reasons why each marriage in London produces fewer children +than the country marriages seem to be— + + (1) From the more frequent fornications and adulteries. + + (2) From a greater luxury and intemperance. + + (3) From a greater intentness on business. + + (4) From the unhealthfulness of the coal smoke. + + (5) From a greater inequality of age between the husbands and wives. + + (6) From the husbands and wives not living so long as in the country. + +He further observes, accounting the people to be 5,500,000, that the said +five millions and a half (including the transitory people and vagrants) +appear by the assessments on marriages, births, and burials, to bear the +following proportions in relation to males and females, and other +distinctions of the people, viz.:— + + + +SCHEME A. + + People. Annual Producing + Marriages. children + In all. each + 530,000 London and 1 in 106 5,000 4.0 + bills of + mortality + 870,000 The cities 1 in 128 6,800 4.5 + and market + towns + 4,100,000 The 1 in 141 29,200 4.8 + villages + and hamlets + 5,500,000 1 in 134 41,000 4.64 + + * * * * * + + Annual Births. Annual Burials. + In all. In all. +London and 1 in 26½ 20,000 1 in 24.1 22,000 +bills of +mortality +The cities 1 in 28½ 30,600 1 in 30.4 28,600 +and market +towns +The 1 in 29.4 29,200 1 in 34.4 119,400 +villages +and hamlets + 1 in 28.95 190,000 1 in 32.35 170,000 + +_Vide_ Scheme B. + + +So that the number of communicants is in all 3,260,000 souls; and the +number of fighting men between sixteen and sixty is 1,308,000. + + + +SCHEME B. + + Males. Males. Females. Both. + Females. +In London 10 to 13 230,000 300,000 530,000 +and bills +of +mortality +In the 8 to 9 410,000 460,000 870,000 +other +cities and +market- +towns +In the 100 to 99 2,060,000 2,040,000 4,100,000 +villages +and hamlets + 27 to 28 2,700,000 2,800,000 5,500,000 + +_That as to other distinctions they appear by the said assessments to +bear these proportions_. + + People. Males. Females. +Husbands and 34½% 1,900,000 950,000 950,000 +wives at above +Widowers at 1½% 90,000 90,000 +above +Widows at about 4½% 240,000 240,000 +Children at 45% 2,500,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 +above +Servants at 10½% 560,000 260,000 300,000 +about +Sojourners and 4% 210,000 100,000 110,000 +single persons + 100% 5,500,000 2,700,000 2,800,000 + +_And that the different proportions in each of the said articles between +London_, _the great towns_, _and the villages_, _may the better appear_, +_he has formed the following scheme_:— + + London and Bills of The other Cities and The Villages and + Mortality. Souls. great Towns. Souls. Hamlets. Souls. +Husbands and Wives 37% 196,100 36% 313,200 34% 1,394,000 +Widowers 2% 10,600 2% 17,400 1½% 61,500 +Widows 7% 37,100 6% 52,200 4½% 184,500 +Children 33% 174,900 40% 348,000 47% 1,927,000 +Servants 13% 68,900 11% 95,700 10% 410,000 +Sojourners 8% 42,400 5% 43,500 3% 123,000 + 100% 530,000 100% 870,000 100% 4,100,000 + +SCHEME B (_continued_). + + +_He further observes_, _supposing the people to be 5,500,000_, _that the +yearly births of the Kingdom may be 190,000_, _and that the several ages +of the people may be as follows_: + + In all. Males. Females. +Those under 1 years old 170,000 88,500 81,500 +Those under 5 years old 820,000 413,300 406,700 +Those under 10 years old 1,520,000 762,900 757,100 +Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 1,578,000 1,682,000 +Those above 21 years old 2,700,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 +Those above 25 years old 2,400,000 1,152,000 1,248,000 +Those above 60 years old 600,000 270,000 330,000 +Those under 16 years old 2,240,000 +Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 + Total of the people 5,500,000 + +That the bachelors are about 28 per cent. of the whole, whereof those +under twenty-five years are 25½ per cent., and those above twenty-five +years are 2½ per cent. + +That the maidens are about 28½ per cent. of the whole. + +Whereof those under 25 years are 26½ per cent. + +And those above 25 years are 2 per cent. + +That the males and females in the kingdom in general are aged, one with +another, 27 years and a half. + +That in the kingdom in general there is near as many people living under +20 years of age as there is above 20, whereof half of the males are under +19, and one half of the females are under 21 years. + +That the ages of the people, according to their several distinctions, are +as follows, viz.:— + + + +_Vide_ Scheme C. + + +Having thus stated the numbers of the people, he gives a scheme of the +income and expense of the several families of England, calculated for the +year 1688. + + + +SCHEME C. + + At a Medium +The husbands 43 years 17¼ per cent., 742 years. +are aged apiece, which, makes + at +The wives 40 17¼ 690 +The widowers 56 1½ 84 +The widows 60 4½ 270 +The children 12 45 540 +The servants 27 10½ 284 +The sojourners 35 4 140 +At a medium 27½ 100 2,750 + +_Vide_ Scheme D. + + +Mr. King’s modesty has been so far overruled as to suffer us to +communicate these his excellent computations, which we can the more +safely commend, having examined them very carefully, tried them by some +little operations of our own upon the same subject, and compared them +with the schemes of other persons, who take pleasure in the like studies. + +What he says concerning the number of the people to be 5,500,000 is no +positive assertion, nor shall we pretend anywhere to determine in that +matter; what he lays down is by way of hypothesis, that supposing the +inhabitants of England to have been, A.D. 1300, 2,860,000 heads, by the +orderly series of increase allowed of by all writers they may probably be +about A.D. 1700, 5,500,000 heads; but if they were A.D. 1300 either less +or more, the case must proportionably alter; for as to his allowances for +plagues, great mortalities, civil wars, the sea, and the plantations, +they seem very reasonable, and not well to be controverted. + +Upon these schemes of Mr. King we shall make several remarks, though the +text deserves much a better comment. + + + +SCHEME D.—A SCHEME OF THE INCOME AND EXPENSE OF THE SEVERAL FAMILIES OF +ENGLAND, CALCULATED FOR THE YEAR 1688. {148} + + Number of Families. RANKS, DEGREES, Heads per Family. + TITLES, AND + QUALIFICATIONS. + 160 Temporal Lords 40 + 26 Spiritual Lords 20 + 800 Baronets 16 + 600 Knights 13 + 3,000 Esquires 10 + 12,000 Gentlemen 8 + 5,000 Persons in greater 8 + offices and places + 5,000 Persons in lesser 6 + offices and places + 2,000 Eminent merchants and 8 + traders by sea + 8,000 Lesser merchants and 6 + traders by sea + 10,000 Persons in the law 7 + 2,000 Eminent clergymen 6 + 8,000 Lesser clergymen 5 + 40,000 Freeholders of the 7 + better sort + 120,000 Freeholders of the 5½ + lesser sort + 150,000 Farmers 5 + 15,000 Persons in liberal 5 + arts and sciences + 50,000 Shopkeepers and 4½ + tradesmen + 60,000 Artisans and 4 + handicrafts + 5,000 Naval officers 4 + 4,000 Military officers 4 + 500,586 5⅓ + 50,000 Common seamen 3 + 364,000 Labouring people and 3½ + out-servants + 400,000 Cottagers and paupers 3¼ + 35,000 Common soldiers 2 + 849,000 Vagrants, as gipsies, 3¼ + thieves, beggars, &c. + 500,586 Increasing the wealth 5⅓ + of the kingdom + 849,000 Decreasing the wealth 3¼ + of the kingdom + 1,349,586 Net totals 4 1/13 + + * * * * * + + Number of Persons. Yearly Income per. Family. Yearly Income in Yearly Income per. Hd. Yearly Expense per Hd. Yearly Yearly + general. Increase per. Incr. in + Hd. General. + £ s. £ £ s. £ s. d. £ s. d. £ + 6,400 3,200 0 512,000 80 0 70 0 0 10 0 0 64,000 + 520 1,300 0 33,800 65 0 45 0 0 20 0 0 10,400 + 12,800 880 0 704,000 55 0 49 0 0 6 0 0 76,800 + 7,800 650 0 390,000 50 0 45 0 0 5 0 0 39,000 + 30,000 450 0 1,200,000 45 0 41 0 0 4 0 0 120,000 + 96,000 280 0 2,880,000 35 0 32 0 0 3 0 0 288,000 + 40,000 240 0 1,200,000 30 0 26 0 0 4 0 0 160,000 + 30,000 120 0 600,000 20 0 17 0 0 3 0 0 90,000 + 16,000 400 0 800,000 50 0 37 0 0 13 0 0 208,000 + 48,000 198 0 1,600,000 33 0 27 0 0 6 0 0 288,000 + 70,000 154 0 1,540,000 22 0 18 0 0 4 0 0 280,000 + 12,000 72 0 144,000 12 0 10 0 0 2 0 0 24,000 + 40,000 50 0 400,000 10 0 9 4 0 0 16 0 32,000 + 280,000 91 0 3,640,000 13 0 11 15 0 1 5 0 350,000 + 660,000 55 0 6,600,000 10 0 9 10 0 0 10 0 330,000 + 750,000 42 10 6,375,000 8 10 8 5 0 0 5 0 187,500 + 75,000 60 0 900,000 12 0 11 0 0 1 0 0 75,000 + 225,000 45 0 2,250,000 10 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 225,000 + 240,000 38 0 2,280,000 9 10 9 0 0 0 10 0 120,000 + 20,000 80 0 400,000 20 0 18 0 0 2 0 0 40,000 + 16,000 60 0 240,000 15 0 14 0 0 1 0 0 16,000 + 2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 11 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700 + Decrease. Decrease. + 150,000 20 0 1,000,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 75,000 + 1,275,000 15 0 5,460,000 4 10 4 12 0 0 2 0 127,500 + 1,300,000 6 10 2,000,000 2 0 2 5 0 0 5 0 325,000 + 70,000 14 0 490,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 35,000 + 2,795,000 10 10 8,950,000 3 5 3 9 0 0 4 0 562,500 + 30,000 60,000 2 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 60,000 +So the General Account is + 2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 11 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700 + 2,825,000 10 10 9,010,000 3 3 3 7 6 0 4 6 622,500 + 5,500,520 32 5 43,491,800 7 18 7 9 3 0 8 9 2,401,200 + +The people being the first matter of power and wealth, by whose labour +and industry a nation must be gainers in the balance, their increase or +decrease must be carefully observed by any government that designs to +thrive; that is, their increase must be promoted by good conduct and +wholesome laws, and if they have been decreased by war, or any other +accident, the breach is to be made up as soon as possible, for it is a +maim in the body politic affecting all its parts. + +Almost all countries in the world have been more or less populous, as +liberty and property have been there well or ill secured. The first +constitution of Rome was no ill-founded government, a kingly power +limited by laws; and the people increased so fast, that, from a small +beginning, in the reign of their sixth king were they able to send out an +army of 80,000 men. And in the time of the commonwealth, in that +invasion which the Gauls made upon Italy, not long before Hannibal came +thither, they were grown so numerous, as that their troops consisted of +700,000 foot and 70,000 horse; it is true their allies were comprehended +in this number, but the ordinary people fit to bear arms being mustered +in Rome and Campania, amounted to 250,000 foot and 23,000 horse. + +Nothing, therefore, can more contribute to the rendering England populous +and strong than to have liberty upon a right footing, and our legal +constitution firmly preserved. A nation may be as well called free under +a limited kingship as in a commonwealth, and it is to this good form of +our government that we partly owe that doubling of the people which has +probably happened here in the 435 years last past. And if the ambition +of some, and the mercenary temper of others, should bring us at any time +to alter our constitution, and to give up our ancient rights, we shall +find our numbers diminish visibly and fast. For liberty encourages +procreation, and not only keeps our own inhabitants among us, but invites +strangers to come and live under the shelter of our laws. + +The Romans, indeed, made use of an adventitious help to enlarge their +city, which was by incorporating foreign cities and nations into their +commonwealth; but this way is not without its mischiefs. For the +strangers in Rome by degrees had grown so numerous, and to have so great +a vote in the councils, that the whole Government began to totter, and +decline from its old to its new inhabitants, which Fabius the censor +observing, he applied a remedy in time by reducing all the new citizens +into four tribes, that being contracted into so narrow a space, they +might not have so malignant an influence upon the city. + +An Act of general naturalisation would likewise probably increase our +numbers very fast, and repair what loss we may have suffered in our +people by the late war. It is a matter that has been very warmly +contended for by many good patriots; but peradventure it carries also its +danger with it, which perhaps would have the less influence by this +expedient, namely, if an Act of Parliament were made, that no heads of +families hereafter to be naturalised for the first generation, should +have votes in any of our elections. But as the case stands, it seems +against the nature of right government that strangers (who may be spies, +and who may have an interest opposite to that of England, and who at best +ever join in one link of obsequiousness to the Ministers) should be +suffered to intermeddle in that important business of sending members to +Parliament. From their sons indeed there is less to fear, who by birth +and nature may come to have the same interest and inclinations as the +natives. + +And though the expedient of Fabius Maximus, to contract the strangers +into four tribes, might be reasonable where the affairs of a whole empire +were transacted by magistrates chosen in one city, yet the same policy +may not hold good in England; foreigners cannot influence elections here +by being dispersed about in the several counties of the kingdom, where +they can never come to have any considerable strength. But some time or +other they may endanger the government by being suffered to remain, such +vast numbers of them here in London where they inhabit altogether, at +least 30,000 persons in two quarters of the town, without intermarrying +with the English, or learning our language, by which means for several +years to come they are in a way still to continue foreigners, and perhaps +may have a foreign interest and foreign inclinations; to permit this +cannot be advisable or safe. It may therefore be proper to limit any new +Acts of naturalisation with such restrictions as may make the accession +of strangers not dangerous to the public. + +An accession of strangers, well regulated, may add to our strength and +numbers; but then it must be composed of labouring men, artificers, +merchants, and other rich men, and not of foreign soldiers, since such +fright and drive away from a nation more people than their troops can +well consist of: for if it has been ever seen that men abound most where +there is most freedom (China excepted, whose climate excels all others, +and where the exercise of the tyranny is mild and easy) it must follow +that people will in time desert those countries whose best flower is +their liberties, if those liberties are thought precarious or in danger. +That foreign soldiers are dangerous to liberty, we may produce examples +from all countries and all ages; but we shall instance only one, because +it is eminent above all the rest. + +The Carthaginians, in their wars, did very much use mercenary and foreign +troops; and when the peace was made between them and the Romans, after a +long dispute for the dominion of Sicily, they brought their army home to +be paid and disbanded, which Gesco, their General, had the charge of +embarking, who did order all his part with great dexterity and wisdom. +But the State of Carthage wanting money to clear arrears, and satisfy the +troops, was forced to keep them up longer than was designed. The army +consisted of Gauls, Ligurians, Baleareans, and Greeks. At first they +were insolent in their quarters in Carthage, and were prevailed upon to +remove to Sicca, where they were to remain and expect their pay. There +they grew presently corrupted with ease and pleasure, and fell into +mutinies and disorder, and to making extravagant demands of pay and +gratuities; and in a rage, with their arms in their hands, they marched +20,000 of them towards Carthage, encamping within fifteen miles of the +city; and chose Spendius and Matho, two profligate wretches, for their +leaders, and imprisoned Gesco, who was deputed to them from the +commonwealth. Afterwards they caused almost all the Africans, their +tributaries, to revolt; they grew in a short time to be 70,000 strong; +they fought several battles with Hanno and Hamilcar Barcas. During these +transactions, the mercenaries that were in garrison in Sardinia mutinied +likewise, murdering their commander and all the Carthaginians; while +Spendius and Matho, to render their accomplices more desperate, put Gesco +to a cruel death, presuming afterwards to lay siege to Carthage itself. +They met with a shock indeed at Prion, where 40,000 of them were +slaughtered; but soon after this battle, in another they took one of the +Carthaginian generals prisoner, whom they fixed to a cross, crucifying +thirty of the principal senators round about him. Spendius and Matho +were at last taken, the one crucified and the other tormented to death: +but the war lasted three years and near four months with excessive +cruelty; in which the State of Carthage lost several battles, and was +often brought within a hair’s-breadth of utter ruin. + +If so great a commonwealth as Carthage, though assisted at that time by +Hiero, King of Syracuse, and by the Romans, ran the hazard of losing +their empire, city, and liberties, by the insurrection of a handful of +mercenaries, whose first strength was but 20,000 men; it should be a +warning to all free nations how they suffer armies so composed to be +among them, and it should frighten a wise State from desiring such an +increase of people as may be had by the bringing over foreign soldiers. + +Indeed, all armies whatsoever, if they are over-large, tend to the +dispeopling of a country, of which our neighbour nation is a sufficient +proof, where in one of the best climates in Europe men are wanting to +till the ground. For children do not proceed from the intemperate +pleasures taken loosely and at random, but from a regular way of living, +where the father of the family desires to rear up and provide for the +offspring he shall beget. + +Securing the liberties of a nation may be laid down as a fundamental for +increasing the numbers of its people; but there are other polities +thereunto conducing which no wise State has ever neglected. + +No race of men did multiply so fast as the Jews, which may be attributed +chiefly to the wisdom of Moses their Lawgiver, in contriving to promote +the state of marriage. + +The Romans had the same care, paying no respect to a man childless by his +own fault, and giving great immunities and privileges, both in the city +and provinces, to those who had such and such a number of children. +Encouragements of the like kind are also given in France to such as +enrich the commonwealth by a large issue. + +But we in England have taken another course, laying a fine upon the +marriage bed, which seems small to those who only contemplate the pomp +and wealth round about them, and in their view; but they who look into +all the different ranks of men are well satisfied that this duty on +marriages and births is a very grievous burden upon the poorer sort, +whose numbers compose the strength and wealth of any nation. This tax +was introduced by the necessity of affairs. It is difficult to say what +may be the event of a new thing; but if we are to take measures from past +wisdom, which exempted prolific families from public duties, we should +not lay impositions upon those who find it hard enough to maintain +themselves. If this tax be such a weight upon the poor as to discourage +marriage and hinder propagation, which seems the truth, no doubt it ought +to be abolished; and at a convenient time we ought to change it for some +other duty, if there were only this single reason, that it is so directly +opposite to the polity of all ages and all countries. + +In order to have hands to carry on labour and manufactures, which must +make us gainers in the balance of trade, we ought not to deter, but +rather invite men to marry, which is to be done by privileges and +exemptions for such a number of children, and by denying certain offices +of trust and dignities to all unmarried persons; and where it is once +made a fashion among those of the better sort, it will quickly obtain +with the lower degree. + +Mr. King, in his scheme (for which he has as authentic grounds as perhaps +the matter is capable of) lays down that the annual marriages of England +are about 41,000, which is one marriage out of every 134 persons. Upon +which, we observe, that this is not a due proportion, considering how few +of our adult males (in comparison with other countries) perish by war or +any other accident; from whence may be inferred that our polity is some +way or other defective, or the marriages would bear a nearer proportion +with the gross number of our people; for which defect, if a remedy can be +found, there will be so much more strength added to the kingdom. + +From the books of assessment on births, marriages, &c., by the nearest +view he can make, he divides the 5,500,000 people into 2,700,000 males +and 2,800,000 females; from whence (considering the females exceed the +males in number, and considering that the men marry later than women, and +that many of the males are of necessity absent in the wars, at sea, and +upon other business) it follows that a large proportion of the females +remain unmarried, though at an adult age, which is a dead loss to the +nation, every birth being as so much certain treasure, upon which account +such laws must be for the public good, as induce all men to marry whose +circumstances permit it. + +From his division of the people it may be likewise observed, that the +near proportion there is between the males and females (which is said to +hold also in other places) is an argument (and the strongest that can be +produced) against polygamy, and the increase of mankind which some think +might be from thence expected; for if Nature had intended to one man a +plurality of wives, she would have ordered a great many more female +births than male, her designments being always right and wise. + +The securing the parish for bastard children is become so small a +punishment and so easily compounded, that it very much hinders marriage. +The Dutch compel men of all ranks to marry the woman whom they have got +with child, and perhaps it would tend to the further peopling of England +if the common people here, under such a certain degree, were condemned by +some new law to suffer the same penalty. + +A country that makes provision to increase in inhabitants, whose +situation is good, and whose people have a genius adapted to trade, will +never fail to be gainers in the balance, provided the labour and industry +of their people be well managed and carefully directed. + +The more any man contemplates these matters the more he will come to be +of opinion, that England is capable of being rendered one of the +strongest nations, and the richest spot of ground in Europe. + +It is not extent of territory that makes a country powerful, but numbers +of men well employed, convenient ports, a good navy, and a soil producing +all sort of commodities. The materials for all this we have, and so +improvable, that if we did but second the gifts of Nature with our own +industry we should soon arrive to a pitch of greatness that would put us +at least upon an equal footing with any of our neighbours. + +If we had the complement of men our land can maintain and nourish; if we +had as much trade as our stock and knowledge in sea affairs is capable of +embracing; if we had such a naval strength as a trade so extended would +easily produce; and, if we had those stores and that wealth which is the +certain result of a large and well-governed traffic, what human strength +could hurt or invade us? On the contrary, should we not be in a posture +not only to resist but to give the law to others? + +Our neighbouring commonwealth has not in territory above 8,000,000 acres, +and perhaps not much above 2,200,000 people, and yet what a figure have +they made in Europe for these last 100 years? What wars have they +maintained? What forces have they resisted? and to what a height of +power are they now come, and all by good order and wise government? + +They are liable to frequent invasions; they labour under the +inconvenience and danger of bad ports; they consume immense sums every +year to defend their land against the sea; all which difficulties they +have subdued by an unwearied industry. + +We are fenced by nature against foreign enemies, our ports are safe, we +fear no irruptions of the sea, our land territory at home is at least +39,000,000 acres. We have in all likelihood not less than 5,500,000 +people. What a nation might we then become, if all these advantages were +thoroughly improved, and if a right application were made of all this +strength and of these numbers? + +They who apprehend the immoderate growth of any prince or State may, +perhaps, succeed by beginning first, and by attempting to pull down such +a dangerous neighbour, but very often their good designs are +disappointed. In all appearance they proceed more safely, who, under +such a fear, make themselves strong and powerful at home. And this was +the course which Philip, King of Macedon, the father of Perseus, took, +when he thought to be invaded by the Romans. + +The greatness of Rome gave Carthage very anxious thoughts, and it rather +seems that they entered into the second Punic War more for fear the +Romans should have the universal empire, than out of any ambition to lord +it themselves over the whole world. Their design was virtuous, and +peradventure wise to endeavour at some early interruption to a rival that +grew so fast. However, we see they miscarried, though their armies were +led by Hannibal. But fortune which had determined the dominion of the +earth for Rome, did, perhaps, lead them into the fatal counsel of passing +the Eber contrary to the articles of peace concluded with Asdrubal, and +of attacking Saguntum before they had sufficiently recovered of the +wounds they had suffered in the wars about Sicily, Sardinia, and with +their own rebels. If the high courage of Hannibal had not driven the +commonwealth into a new war while it was yet faint and weak, and if they +had been suffered to pursue their victories in Spain, and to get firm +footing in that rich, warlike, and then populous country, very probably +in a few years they might have been a more equal match for the Roman +people. It is true, if the Romans had endeavoured, at the conquest of +Spain, and if they had disturbed the Carthaginians in that country, the +war must have been unavoidable, because it was evident in that age, and +will be apparent in the times we live in, that whatever foreign power, +already grown great, can add to its dominion the possession of Spain, +will stand fair for universal empire. + +But unless some such cogent reason of state, as is here instanced, +intervene, in all appearance the best way for a nation that apprehends +the growing power of any neighbour is to fortify itself within; we do not +mean by land armies, which rather debilitate than strengthen a country, +but by potent navies, by thrift in the public treasure, care of the +people’s trade, and all the other honest and useful arts of peace. + +By such an improvement of our native strength, agreeable to the laws and +to the temper of a free nation, England without doubt may be brought to +so good a posture and condition of defending itself, as not to apprehend +any neighbour jealous of its strength or envious of its greatness. + +And to this end we open these schemes, that a wise Government under which +we live, not having any designs to become arbitrary, may see what +materials they have to work upon, and how far our native wealth is able +to second their good intentions of preserving us a rich and a free +people. + +Having said something of the number of our inhabitants, we shall proceed +to discourse of their different degrees and ranks, and to examine who are +a burden and who are a profit to the public, for by how much every part +and member of the commonwealth can be made useful to the whole, by so +much a nation will be more and more a gainer in this balance of trade +which we are to treat of. + +Mr. King, from the assessments on births and marriages, and from the +polls, has formed the scheme here inserted, of the ranks, degrees, titles +and qualifications of the people. He has done it so judiciously, and +upon such grounds, that is well worth the careful perusal of any curious +person, from thence we shall make some observations in order to put our +present matter in a clearer light. + +First, this scheme detects their error, who in the calculation they frame +contemplate nothing but the wealth and plenty they see in rich cities and +great towns, and from thence make a judgment of the kingdom’s remaining +part, and from this view conclude that taxes and payments to the public +do mostly arise from the gentry and better sort, by which measures they +neither contrive their imposition aright, nor are they able to give a +true estimate what it shall produce; but when we have divided the +inhabitants of England into their proper classes, it will appear that the +nobility and gentry are but a small part of the whole body of the people. + +Believing that taxes fell chiefly upon the better sort, they care not +what they lay, as thinking they will not be felt; but when they come to +be levied, they either fall short, and so run the public into an immense +debt, or they light so heavily upon the poorer sort, as to occasion +insufferable clamours; and they, whose proper business it was to contrive +these matters better have been so unskilful, that the legislative power +has been more than once compelled for the peoples’ ease to give new +funds, instead of others that had been ill projected. + +This may be generally said, that all duties whatsoever upon the +consumption of a large produce, fall with the greatest weight upon the +common sort, so that such as think in new duties that they chiefly tax +the rich will find themselves quite mistaken; for either their fund must +yield little, or it must arise from the whole body of the people, of +which the richer sort are but a small proportion. + +And though war, and national debts and engagements, might heretofore very +rationally plead for excises upon our home consumption, yet now there is +a peace, it is the concern of every man that loves his country to proceed +warily in laying new ones, and to get off those which are already laid as +fast as ever he can. High customs and high excises both together are +incompatible, either of them alone are to be endured, but to have them +co-exist is suffered in no well-governed nation. If materials of foreign +growth were at an easy rate, a high price might be the better borne in +things of our own product, but to have both dear at once (and by reason +of the duties laid upon them) is ruinous to the inferior rank of men, and +this ought to weigh more with us, when we consider that even of the +common people a subdivision is to be made, of which one part subsist from +their own havings, arts, labour, and industry; and the other part subsist +a little from their own labour, but chiefly from the help and charity of +the rank that is above them. For according to Mr. King’s scheme— + +The nobility and gentry, with their families and retainers, the persons +in offices, merchants, persons in the law, the clergy, freeholders, +farmers, persons in sciences and liberal arts, shopkeepers, and +tradesmen, handicrafts, men, naval officers, with the families and +dependants upon all these altogether, make up the number of 2,675,520 +heads. + +The common seamen, common soldiers, labouring people, and out-servants, +cottagers, paupers, and their families, with the vagrants, make up the +number of 2,825,000 heads. + +In all 5,500,520 heads. + +So that here seems a majority of the people, whose chief dependence and +subsistence is from the other part, which majority is much greater, in +respect of the number of families, because 500,000 families contribute to +the support of 850,000 families. In contemplation of which, great care +should be taken not to lay new duties upon the home consumption, unless +upon the extremest necessities of the State; for though such impositions +cannot be said to fall directly upon the lower rank, whose poverty +hinders them from consuming such materials (though there are few excises +to which the meanest person does not pay something), yet indirectly, and +by unavoidable consequences, they are rather more affected by high duties +upon our home-consumption than the wealthier degree of people, and so we +shall find the case to be, if we look carefully into all the distinct +ranks of men there enumerated. + +First, as to the nobility and gentry, they must of necessity retrench +their families and expenses, if excessive impositions are laid upon all +sorts of materials for consumption, from whence follows, that the degree +below them of merchants, shopkeepers, tradesmen, and artisans, must want +employment. + +Secondly, as to the manufactures, high excises in time of peace are +utterly destructive to that principal part of England’s wealth; for if +malt, coals, salt, leather, and other things, bear a great price, the +wages of servants, workmen, and artificers, will consequently rise, for +the income must bear some proportion with the expense; and if such as set +the poor to work find wages for labour or manufacture advance upon them, +they must rise in the price of their commodity, or they cannot live, all +which would signify little, if nothing but our own dealings among one +another were thereby affected; but it has a consequence far more +pernicious in relation to our foreign trade, for it is the exportation of +our own product that must make England rich; to be gainers in the balance +of trade, we must carry out of our own product what will purchase the +things of foreign growth that are needful for our own consumption, with +some overplus either in bullion or goods to be sold in other countries, +which overplus is the profit a nation makes by trade, and it is more or +less according to the natural frugality of the people that export, or as +from the low price of labour and manufacture they can afford the +commodity cheap, and at a rate not to be undersold in foreign markets. +The Dutch, whose labour and manufactures are dear by reason of home +excises, can notwithstanding sell cheap abroad, because this disadvantage +they labour under is balanced by the parsimonious temper of their people; +but in England, where this frugality is hardly to be introduced, if the +duties upon our home consumption are so large as to raise considerably +the price of labour and manufacture, all our commodities for exportation +must by degrees so advance in the prime value, that they cannot be sold +at a rate which will give them vent in foreign markets, and we must be +everywhere undersold by our wiser neighbours. But the consequence of +such duties in times of peace will fall most heavily upon our woollen +manufactures, of which most have more value from the workmanship than the +material; and if the price of this workmanship be enhanced, it will in a +short course of time put a necessity upon those we deal with of setting +up manufactures of their own, such as they can, or of buying goods of the +like kind and use from nations that can afford them cheaper. And in this +point we are to consider, that the bulk of our woollen exports does not +consist in draperies made of the fine wool, peculiar to our soil, but is +composed of coarse broad cloths, such as Yorkshire cloths, kerseys, which +make a great part of our exports, and may be, and are made of a coarser +wool, which is to be had in other countries. So that we are not singly +to value ourselves upon the material, but also upon the manufacture, +which we should make as easy as we can, by not laying over-heavy burdens +upon the manufacturer. And our woollen goods being two-thirds of our +foreign exports, it ought to be the chief object of the public care, if +we expect to be gainers in the balance of trade, which is what we hunt +after in these inquiries. + +Thirdly, as to the lower rank of all, which we compute at 2,825,000 +heads, a majority of the whole people, their principal subsistence is +upon the degrees above them, and if those are rendered uneasy these must +share in the calamity, but even of this inferior sort no small proportion +contribute largely to excises, as labourers and out-servants, which +likewise affect the common seamen, who must thereupon raise their wages +or they will not have wherewithal to keep their families left at home, +and the high wages of seamen is another burden upon our foreign traffic. +As to the cottagers, who are about a fifth part of the whole people, some +duties reach even them, as those upon malt, leather, and salt, but not +much because of their slender consumption, but if the gentry, upon whose +woods and gleanings they live, and who employ them in day labour, and if +the manufacturers, for whom they card and spin, are overburdened with +duties, they cannot afford to give them so much for their labour and +handiwork, nor to yield them those other reliefs which are their +principal subsistence, for want of which these miserable wretches must +perish with cold and hunger. + +Thus we see excises either directly or indirectly fall upon the whole +body of the people, but we do not take notice of these matters as +receding from our former opinion. On the contrary, we still think them +the most easy and equal way of taxing a nation, and perhaps it is +demonstrable that if we had fallen into this method at the beginning of +the war of raising the year’s expense within the year by excises, England +had not been now indebted so many millions, but what was advisable under +such a necessity and danger is not to be pursued in times of peace, +especially in a country depending so much upon trade and manufactures. + +Our study now ought to be how those debts may be speedily cleared off, +for which these new revenues are the funds, that trade may again move +freely as it did heretofore, without such a heavy clog; but this point we +shall more amply handle when we come to speak of our payments to the +public. + +Mr. King divides the whole body of the people into two principal classes, +viz.:— + +Increasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,675,520 heads. +Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,825,000 heads. + +By which he means that the first class of the people from land, arts, and +industry maintain themselves, and add every year something to the +nation’s general stock, and besides this, out of their superfluity, +contribute every year so much to the maintenance of others. + +That of the second class some partly maintain themselves by labour (as +the heads of the cottage families), but that the rest, as most of the +wives and children of these, sick and impotent people, idle beggars and +vagrants, are nourished at the cost of others, and are a yearly burden to +the public, consuming annually so much as would be otherwise added to the +nation’s general stock. + +The bodies of men are, without doubt, the most valuable treasure of a +country, and in their sphere the ordinary people are as serviceable to +the commonwealth as the rich if they are employed in honest labour and +useful arts, and such being more in number do more contribute to increase +the nation’s wealth than the higher rank. + +But a country may be populous and yet poor (as were the ancient Gauls and +Scythians), so that numbers, unless they are well employed, make the body +politic big but unwieldy, strong but unactive, as to any uses of good +government. + +Theirs is a wrong opinion who think all mouths profit a country that +consume its produce, and it may be more truly affirmed, that he who does +not some way serve the commonwealth, either by being employed or by +employing others, is not only a useless, but a hurtful member to it. + +As it is charity, and what we indeed owe to human kind, to make provision +for the aged, the lame, the sick, blind, and impotent, so it is a justice +we owe to the commonwealth not to suffer such as have health, and who +might maintain themselves, to be drones and live upon the labour of +others. + +The bulk of such as are a burden to the public consists in the cottagers +and paupers, beggars in great cities and towns, and vagrants. + +Upon a survey of the hearth books, made in Michaelmas, 1685, it was found +that of the 1,300,000 houses in the whole kingdom, those of one chimney +amounted to 554,631, but some of these having land about them, in all our +calculations, we have computed the cottagers but at 500,000 families; but +of these, a large number may get their own livelihood, and are no charge +to the parish, for which reason Mr. King very judiciously computes his +cottagers and paupers, decreasing the wealth of the nation but at 400,000 +families, in which account he includes the poor-houses in cities, towns, +and villages, besides which he reckons 30,000 vagrants, and all these +together to make up 1,330,000 heads. + +This is a very great proportion of the people to be a burden upon the +other part, and is a weight upon the land interest, of which the landed +gentlemen must certainly be very sensible. + +If this vast body of men, instead of being expensive, could be rendered +beneficial to the commonwealth, it were a work, no doubt, highly to be +promoted by all who love their country. + +It seems evident, to such as have considered these matters, and who have +observed how they are ordered in nations under a good polity, that the +number of such who through age or impotence stand in real need of relief, +is but small and might be maintained for very little, and that the poor +rates are swelled to the extravagant degree we now see them at by two +sorts of people, one of which, by reason of our slack administration, is +suffered to remain in sloth, and the other, through a defect in our +constitution, continue in wretched poverty for want of employment, though +willing enough to undertake it. + +All this seems capable of a remedy, the laws may be armed against +voluntary idleness, so as to prevent it, and a way may probably be found +out to set those to work who are desirous to support themselves by their +own labour; and if this could be brought about, it would not only put a +stop to the course of that vice which is the consequence of an idle life, +but it would greatly tend to enrich the commonwealth, for if the industry +of not half the people maintain in some degree the other part, and, +besides, in times of peace did add every year near two million and a half +to the general stock of England, to what pitch of wealth and greatness +might we not be brought, if one limb were not suffered to draw away the +nourishment of the other, and if all the members of the body politic were +rendered useful to it? + +Nature, in her contrivances, has made every part of a living creature +either for ornament or use; the same should be in a politic institution +rightly governed. + +It may be laid down for an undeniable truth, that where all work nobody +will want, and to promote this would be a greater charity and more +meritorious than to build hospitals, which very often are but so many +monuments of ill-gotten riches attended with late repentance. + +To make as many as possible of these 1,330,000 persons (whereof not above +330,000 are children too young to work) who now live chiefly upon others +get themselves a large share of their maintenance would be the opening a +new vein of treasure of some millions sterling per annum; it would be a +present ease to every particular man of substance, and a lasting benefit +to the whole body of the kingdom, for it would not only nourish but +increase the numbers of the people, of which many thousands perish every +year by those diseases contracted under a slothful poverty. + +Our laws relating to the poor are very numerous, and this matter has +employed the care of every age for a long time, though but with little +success, partly through the ill execution, and partly through some defect +in the very laws. + +The corruptions of mankind are grown so great that, now-a-days, laws are +not much observed which do not in a manner execute themselves; of this +nature are those laws which relate to bringing in the Prince’s revenue, +which never fail to be put in execution, because the people must pay, and +the Prince will be paid; but where only one part of the constitution, the +people, are immediately concerned, as in laws relating to the poor, the +highways, assizes, and other civil economy, and good order in the state, +those are but slenderly regarded. + +The public good being therefore, very often, not a motive strong enough +to engage the magistrate to perform his duty, lawgivers have many times +fortified their laws with penalties, wherein private persons may have a +profit, thereby to stir up the people to put the laws in execution. + +In countries depraved nothing proceeds well wherein particular men do not +one way or other find their account; and rather than a public good should +not go on at all, without doubt, it is better to give private men some +interest to set it forward. + +For which reason it may be worth the consideration of such as study the +prosperity and welfare of England, whether this great engine of +maintaining the poor, and finding them work and employment, may not be +put in motion by giving some body of undertakers a reasonable gain to put +the machine upon its wheels. + +In order to which, we shall here insert a proposal delivered to the House +of Commons last session of Parliament, for the better maintaining the +impotent, and employing and setting to work the other poor of this +kingdom. + +In matters of this nature, it is always good to have some model or plan +laid down, which thinking men may contemplate, alter, and correct, as +they see occasion; and the writer of these papers does rather choose to +offer this scheme, because he is satisfied it was composed by a gentleman +of great abilities, and who has made both the poor rates, and their +number, more his study than any other person in the nation. The proposal +is as follows + + + +_A Scheme for Setting the Poor to Work_. + + +First, that such persons as shall subscribe and pay the sum of £300,000 +as a stock for and towards the better maintaining the impotent poor, and +for buying commodities and materials to employ and set at work the other +poor, be incorporated and made one body politic, &c. By the name of the +Governor and Company for Maintaining and Employing the Poor of this +Kingdom. + +By all former propositions, it was intended that the parishes should +advance several years’ rates to raise a stock, but by this proposal the +experiment is to be made by private persons at their risk; and £300,000 +may be judged a very good stock, which, added to the poor rates for a +certain number of years, will be a very good fund for buying commodities +and materials for a million of money at any time. This subscription +ought to be free for everybody, and if the sum were subscribed in the +several counties of England and Wales, in proportion to their poor rates, +or the monthly assessment, it would be most convenient; and provision may +be made that no person shall transfer his interest but to one of the same +county, which will keep the interest there during the term; and as to its +being one Corporation, it is presumed this will be most beneficial to the +public. For first, all disputes on removes, which are very chargeable +and burthensome, will be at an end—this proposal intending, that wherever +the poor are, they shall be maintained or employed. Secondly, it will +prevent one county which shall be diligent, imposing on their neighbours +who may be negligent, or getting away their manufactures from them. +Thirdly, in case of fire, plague, or loss of manufacture, the stock of +one county may not be sufficient to support the places where such +calamities may happen; and it is necessary the whole body should support +every particular member, so that hereby there will be a general care to +administer to every place according to their necessities. + +Secondly, that the said Corporation be established for the term of +one-and-twenty years. + +The Corporation ought to be established for one-and-twenty years, or +otherwise it cannot have the benefit the law gives in case of infants, +which is their service for their education; besides, it will be some +years before a matter of this nature can be brought into practice. + +Thirdly, that the said sum of £300,000 be paid in, and laid out for the +purposes aforesaid, to remain as a stock for and during the said term of +one-and-twenty years. + +The subscription ought to be taken at the passing of the Act, but the +Corporation to be left at liberty to begin either the Michaelmas or the +Lady Day after, as they shall think fit. And XXX per cent. to be paid at +the subscribing to persons appointed for that purpose, and the remainder +before they begin to act; but so as £300,000 shall be always in stock +during the term, notwithstanding any dividends or other disposition: and +an account thereof to be exhibited twice in every year upon oath, before +the Lord Chancellor for the time being. + +Fourthly, that the said corporation do by themselves, or agents in every +parish of England, from and after the XXX day of XXX during the said term +of one-and-twenty years, provide for the real impotent poor good and +sufficient maintenance and reception, as good or better than hath at any +time within the space of XXX years before the said XXX day of XXX been +provided or allowed to such impotent poor, and so shall continue to +provide for such impotent poor, and what other growing impotent poor +shall happen in the said parish during the said term. + +By impotent poor is to be understood all infants and old and decrepid +persons not able to work; also persons who by sickness or any accident +are for the time unable to labour for themselves or families; and all +persons (not being fit for labour) who were usually relieved by the money +raised for the use of the poor; they shall have maintenance, as good or +better, as within XXX years they used to have. + +This does not directly determine what that shall be, nor is it possible, +by reason a shilling in one county is as much as two in another; but it +will be the interest of the Corporation that such poor be well provided +for, by reason the contrary will occasion all the complaints or clamour +that probably can be made against the Corporation. + +Fifthly, that the Corporation do provide (as well for all such poor which +on the said XXX day of XXX shall be on the poor books, as for what other +growing poor shall happen in the said term who are or shall be able to +labour or do any work) sufficient labour and work proper for such persons +to be employed in. And that provision shall be made for such labouring +persons according to their labour, so as such provision doth not exceed +three-fourth parts as much as any other person would have paid for such +labour. And in case they are not employed and set to work, then such +persons shall, until materials or labour be provided for them, be +maintained as impotent poor; but so as such persons who shall hereafter +enter themselves on the poor’s book, being able to labour, shall not quit +the service of the corporation, without leave, for the space of six +months. + +The Corporation are to provide materials and labour for all that can +work, and to make provision for them not exceeding three-fourth parts as +much as any other person would give for such labour. For example, if +another person would give one of these a shilling, the Corporation ought +to give but ninepence. And the reason is plain, first, because the +Corporation will be obliged to maintain them and their families in all +exigences, which others are not obliged to do, and consequently they +ought not to allow so much as others. Secondly, in case any persons able +to labour, shall come to the Corporation, when their agents are not +prepared with materials to employ them, by this proposal they are to +allow them full provision as impotent poor, until they find them work, +which is entirely in favour of the poor. Thirdly, it is neither +reasonable nor possible for the Corporation to provide materials upon +every occasion, for such persons as shall be entered with them, unless +they can be secure of such persons to work up those materials; besides, +without this provision, all the labouring people of England will play +fast and loose between their employers and the Corporation, for as they +are disobliged by one, they will run to the other, and so neither shall +be sure of them. + +Sixthly, that no impotent poor shall be removed out of the parish where +they dwell, but upon notice in writing given to the churchwardens or +overseers of the said parish, to what place of provision he or she is +removed. + +It is judged the best method to provide for the impotent poor in houses +prepared for that purpose, where proper provision may be made for +several, with all necessaries of care and maintenance. So that in some +places one house will serve the impotent poor of several parishes, in +which case the parish ought to know where to resort, to see if good +provision be made for them. + +Seventhly, that in case provision be not made for the poor of each +parish, in manner as aforesaid (upon due notice given to the agents of +the Corporation) the said parish may order their poor to be maintained, +and deduct the sum by them expended out of the next payments to be made +to the said corporation by the said parish. + +In case any accident happens in a parish, either by sickness, fall, +casualty of fire, or other ways; and that the agent of the Corporation is +not present to provide for them, or having notice doth not immediately do +it, the parish may do it, and deduct so much out of the next payment; but +there must be provision made for the notice, and in what time the +Corporation shall provide for them. + +Eighthly, that the said Corporation shall have and receive for the said +one-and-twenty years, that is to say, from every parish yearly, so much +as such parish paid in any one year, to be computed by a medium of seven +years; namely, from the 25th of March, 1690, to the 25th of March 1697, +and to be paid half-yearly; and besides, shall receive the benefit of the +revenues of all donations given to any parish, or which shall be given +during the said term, and all forfeitures which the law gives to the use +of the poor; and to all other sums which were usually collected by the +parish, for the maintenance of the poor. + +Whatever was raised for or applied to the use of the poor, ought to be +paid over to the Corporation; and where there are any donations for +maintaining the poor, it will answer the design of the donor, by reason +there will be better provision for the maintenance of the poor than ever; +and if that maintenance be so good, as to induce further charities, no +doubt the Corporation ought to be entitled to them. But there are two +objections to this article; first that to make a medium by a time of war +is unreasonable. Secondly, to continue the whole tax for one-and-twenty +years, does not seem to give any benefit to the kingdom in that time. To +the first, it is true, we have a peace, but trade is lower now than at +any time during the war, and the charge of the poor greater; and when +trade will mend is very uncertain. To the second, it is very plain, that +although the charge may be the same to a parish in the total, yet it will +be less to particular persons, because those who before received alms, +will now be enabled to be contributors; but besides, the turning so many +hundred thousand pounds a year (which in a manner have hitherto been +applied only to support idleness) into industry; and the employing so +many other idle vagrants and sturdy beggars, with the product of their +labour, will altogether be a present benefit to the lands of England, as +well in the rents as in the value; and further the accidental charities +in the streets and at doors, is, by a very modest computation, over and +above the poor rates, at least £300,000 per annum, which will be entirely +saved by this proposal, and the persons set at work; which is a further +consideration for its being well received, since the Corporation are not +allowed anything for this service. + +The greater the encouragement is, the better the work will be performed; +and it will become the wisdom of the parliament in what they do, to make +it effectual; for should such an undertaking as this prove ineffectual, +instead of remedying, it will increase the mischief. + +Ninthly, that all the laws made for the provision of the poor, and for +punishing idle vagrant persons, be repealed, and one law made to continue +such parts as are found useful, and to add such other restrictions, +penalties, and provisions, as may effectually attain the end of this +great work. + +The laws hereunto relating are numerous, but the judgment and opinions +given upon them are so various and contradictory, and differ so in sundry +places, as to be inconsistent with any one general scheme of management. + +Tenthly, that proper persons be appointed in every county to determine +all matters and differences which may arise between the corporation and +the respective parishes. + +To prevent any ill usage, neglect or cruelty, it will be necessary to +make provision that the poor may tender their complaints to officers of +the parish; and that those officers having examined the same, and not +finding redress, may apply to persons to be appointed in each county and +each city for that purpose, who may be called supervisors of the poor, +and may have allowance made them for their trouble; and their business +may be to examine the truth of such complaints; and in case either the +parish or corporation judge themselves aggrieved by the determination of +the said supervisors, provision may be made that an appeal lie to the +quarter sessions. + +Eleventhly, that the corporation be obliged to provide for all public +beggars, and to put the laws into execution against public beggars and +idle vagrant persons. + +Such of the public beggars as can work must be employed, the rest to be +maintained as impotent poor, but the laws to be severely put in execution +against those who shall ask any public alms. + +This proposal, which in most parts of it seems to be very maturely +weighed, may be a foundation for those to build upon who have a public +spirit large enough to embrace such a noble undertaking. + +But the common obstruction to anything of this nature is a malignant +temper in some who will not let a public work go on if private persons +are to be gainers by it. When they are to get themselves, they abandon +all sense of virtue; but are clothed in her whitest robe when they smell +profit coming to another, masking themselves with a false zeal to the +commonwealth, where their own turn is not to be served. It were better, +indeed, that men would serve their country for the praise and honour that +follow good actions, but this is not to be expected in a nation at least +leaning towards corruption, and in such an age it is as much as we can +hope for if the prospect of some honest gain invites people to do the +public faithful service. For which reason, in any undertaking where it +can be made apparent that a great benefit will accrue to the commonwealth +in general, we ought not to have an evil eye upon what fair advantages +particular men may thereby expect to reap, still taking care to keep +their appetite of getting within moderate bounds, laying all just and +reasonable restraints upon it, and making due provision that they may not +wrong or oppress their fellow subjects. + +It is not to be denied, but that if fewer hands were suffered to remain +idle, and if the poor had full employment, it would greatly tend to the +common welfare, and contribute much towards adding every year to the +general stock of England. + +Among the methods that we have here proposed of employing the poor, and +making the whole body of the people useful to the public, we think it our +duty to mind those who consider the common welfare of looking with a +compassionate eye into the prisons of this kingdom, where many thousands +consume their time in vice and idleness, wasting the remainder of their +fortunes, or lavishing the substance of their creditors, eating bread and +doing no work, which is contrary to good order, and pernicious to the +commonwealth. + +We cannot therefore but recommend the thoughts of some good bill that may +effectually put an end to this mischief so scandalous in a trading +country, which should let no hands remain useless. + +It is not at all difficult to contrive such a bill as may relieve and +release the debtor, and yet preserve to his creditors all their fair, +just, and honest rights and interest. + +And so we have in this matter endeavoured to show that to preserve and +increase the people, and to make their numbers useful, are methods +conducing to make us gainers in the balance of trade. + + + + +FOOTNOTES. + + +{75} In the book there are no figures in the table at all.—DP. + +{76} In the book there are no figures in the table at all.—DP. + +{77} In the book there are no figures in the table at all.—DP. + +{148} This table spreads over two opposite pages in the book. It has +been split down the middle for this eBook.—DP.] + + + + +***END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK ESSAYS ON MANKIND AND POLITICAL +ARITHMETIC*** + + +******* This file should be named 5619-0.txt or 5619-0.zip ******* + + +This and all associated files of various formats will be found in: +http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/5/6/1/5619 + + + +Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions +will be renamed. + +Creating the works from public domain print editions means that no +one owns a United States copyright in these works, so the Foundation +(and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United States without +permission and without paying copyright royalties. Special rules, +set forth in the General Terms of Use part of this license, apply to +copying and distributing Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works to +protect the PROJECT GUTENBERG-tm concept and trademark. 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