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You can also find out about how to make a +donation to Project Gutenberg, and how to get involved. + + +**Welcome To The World of Free Plain Vanilla Electronic Texts** + +**eBooks Readable By Both Humans and By Computers, Since 1971** + +*****These eBooks Were Prepared By Thousands of Volunteers!***** + + +Title: Essays on Mankind and Political Arithmetic + +Author: Sir William Petty + +Release Date: May, 2004 [EBook #5619] +[Yes, we are more than one year ahead of schedule] +[This file was first posted on July 23, 2002] +[Most recently updated May 8, 2003] + +Edition: 10 + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: ASCII +</pre> +<p> +<a name="startoftext"></a> +Transcribed from the Cassell & Co. edition by David Price, email +ccx074@coventry.ac.uk<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +ESSAYS ON MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETIC<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +Contents:<br> +<br> +Introduction (by Henry Morley)<br> +Another Essays<br> + The stationer to the reader<br> + The principal points of this discourse<br> + Of the growth of the city of London<br> +Further observation upon the Dublin bills<br> + The stationer to the reader<br> + A postscript to the stationer<br> +Two essays in political arithmetic<br> + To the king’s most excellent majesty<br> + An essay in political arithmetic<br> +Five essays in political arithmetic<br> + The first essay<br> + The second essay<br> + The third essay.<br> + The fourth essay<br> + The fifth essay<br> +Of the people of England (by Gregory King)<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +INTRODUCTION.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +William Petty, born on the 26th of May, 1623, was the son of a clothier +at Romsey in Hampshire. After education at the Romsey Grammar +School, he continued his studies at Caen in Normandy. There he +supported himself by a little trade while learning French, and advancing +his knowledge of Greek, Latin, Mathematics, and much else that belonged +to his idea of a liberal education. His idea was large. +He came back to England, and had for a short time a place in the Navy; +but at the age of twenty he went abroad again, and was away three years, +studying actively at Utrecht, Leyden, and Amsterdam, and also in Paris. +In Paris he assisted Thomas Hobbes in drawing diagrams for his treatise +on optics. At the age of twenty-four Petty took out a patent for +the invention of a copying machine. It was described in a folio +pamphlet “On Double Writing.” That was in 1647, in +Civil War time, and although Petty followed Hobbes in his studies, he +did not share the philosopher’s political opinions, but held with +the Parliament. In 1648 he added to his former pamphlet a “Declaration +concerning the newly invented Art of Double Writing.”<br> +<br> +Samuel Hartlib, the large-hearted Pole, who in those days spent his +worldly means in England for the advancement of agriculture and of education, +and other aids to the well-being of a nation, had caused Milton to write +his letter on education, as has been shown in the Introduction to the +hundred and twenty-first volume of this Library, which contains that +Letter together with Milton’s Areopagitica. Young Petty’s +first published writing was a Letter to Hartlib on Education, entitled +“The Advice of W. P. to Mr. Samuel Hartlib for the Advancement +of some Particular Parts of Learning.” This appeared in +1648, when Petty’s age was twenty-five, and its aim was to suggest +a wider view of the whole field of education than had been possible +in the Middle Ages, of which schools and colleges were then preserving +the traditions, as they do still here and there to some extent. +This pamphlet has been reprinted in the sixth volume of the “Harleian +Miscellany.” William Petty wished the training of the young +to be in several respects more practical.<br> +<br> +His own activity of mind caused him to settle at Oxford, where he taught +anatomy and chemistry, which he had been studying abroad. He had +read with Hobbes the writings of Vesalius, the great founder of modern +practical anatomy. In 1649 William Petty graduated at Oxford as +Doctor of Medicine, obtained a fellowship at Brasenose, and practised. +In 1650 he surprised the public by restoring the action of the lungs +in a woman who had been hanged for infanticide, and so restoring her +to life.<br> +<br> +Dr. Petty now took his place at Oxford among the energetic men of science +who had been inspired by the teaching of Francis Bacon to seek knowledge +by direct experiment, and to value knowledge above all things for its +power of advancing the welfare of man. The headquarters of these +workers were at Oxford, and in London at Gresham College.<br> +<br> +In 1650 Petty was made Professor of Anatomy at Oxford, and it is a characteristic +illustration of his great activity of mind that he was at the same time +Professor of Music at Gresham College. Music had then a high place +in the Seven Sciences, as that use of regulated numbers which expressed +the harmonies of the created world. The Seven Sciences were divided +into three of the Trivium, and four of the Quadrivium. The three +of the Trivium concerned the use of speech; they were Grammar, Rhetoric, +and Logic. The four of the Quadrivium concerned number and measure; +they were Arithmetic, Geometry, Music; and Astronomy, which led up straight +to God. Advance to Music might be represented in the student’s +mind by his reaching to a sense of the harmonious relation of all his +studies, which, so to speak, lived in his mind as a single well-proportioned +thought.<br> +<br> +In 1652 Dr. Petty was sent to Ireland as physician to the army of the +Commonwealth. While there his active mind observed that the Survey +on which the Government had based its distribution of fortified lands +to the soldiers had been “most inefficiently and absurdly managed.” +He obtained the commission to make a fresh Survey, which he completed +accurately in thirteen months, and by which he obtained in payments +from the Government and from other persons interested ten thousand pounds. +By investing this in the purchase of soldiers’ claims, he secured +for himself an Irish estate of fifty thousand acres in the county of +Kerry, opened upon it mines and quarries, developed trade in timber, +and set up a fishery. John Evelyn said of him “that he had +never known such another genius, and that if Evelyn were a prince he +would make Petty his second councillor at least.” Henry +Cromwell as Lord Deputy in Ireland made Petty his secretary.<br> +<br> +Petty’s Maps were printed in 1685, two years before his death, +as “Hiberniæ Delineatio quoad hactenus licuit perfectissima;” +a collection of thirty-six maps, with a portrait of Sir William Petty, +a work answering to its description as the most perfect delineation +of Ireland that had up to that time been obtained. There is a +coloured copy of Petty’s maps in the British Museum, and also +an uncoloured copy, with the first five maps varying from those in the +coloured copy, and giving a General Map of Ireland, followed by Maps +of Leinster, Munster, Ulster, and Connaught. There was afterwards +published in duodecimo, without date, “A Geographical Description +of ye Kingdom of Ireland, collected from ye actual Survey made by Sir +William Petty, corrected and amended, engraven and published by Fra. +Lamb.” This volume gives as its contents, “one general +mapp, four provincial mapps, and thirty-two county mapps; to which is +added a mapp of Great Brittaine and Ireland, together with an Index +of the whole.”<br> +<br> +At the Restoration William Petty accepted the inevitable change, and +continued his service to the country. He was knighted by Charles +the Second, and appointed in 1661 Inspector-General of Ireland. +He entered Parliament. He was one of the first founders of the +Royal Society, established at the beginning of the reign of Charles +the Second; and the outcome of these scientific studies along the line +marked out by Francis Bacon, which had been actively pursued in Oxford +and at Gresham College. In 1663 he applied his ingenuity to the +invention of a swift double-bottomed ship, that made one or two passages +between England and Ireland, but was then lost in a storm.<br> +<br> +In 1670 Sir William Petty established on his lands at Kerry the English +settlement at the head of the bay of Kenmare. The building of +forty-two houses for the English settlers first laid the foundations +of the present town of Kenmare. “The population,” +writes Lord Macaulay, “amounted to a hundred and eighty. +The land round the town was well cultivated. The cattle were numerous. +Two small barks were employed in fishing and trading along the coast. +The supply of herrings, pilchards, mackerel, and salmon, was plentiful, +and would have been still more plentiful had not the beach been, in +the finest part of the year, covered by multitudes of seals, which preyed +on the fish of the bay. Yet the seal was not an unwelcome visitor: +his fur was valuable; and his oil supplied light through the long nights +of winter. An attempt was made with great success to set up ironworks. +It was not yet the practice to employ coal for the purpose of smelting; +and the manufacturers of Kent and Sussex had much difficulty in procuring +timber at a reasonable price. The neighbourhood of Kenmare was +then richly wooded; and Petty found it a gainful speculation to send +ore thither.” He looked also for profit from the variegated +marbles of adjacent islands. Distant two days’ journey over +the mountains from the nearest English, Petty’s English settlement +of Kenmare withstood all surrounding dangers, and in 1688, a year after +its founder’s death, defended itself successfully against a fierce +and general attack.<br> +<br> +Sir William Petty died at London, on the 16th of December, 1687, and +was buried in his native town of Romsey. He had added to his great +wealth by marriage, and was the founder of the family in which another +Sir William Petty became Earl of Shelburne and first Marquis of Lansdowne. +The son of that first Marquis was Henry third Marquis of Lansdowne, +who took a conspicuous part in our political history during the present +century.<br> +<br> +Sir William Petty’s survey of the land in Ireland, called the +Down Survey, because its details were set down in maps, remains the +legal record of the title on which half the land in Ireland is held. +The original maps are preserved in the Public Record Office at Dublin, +and many of Petty’s MSS. are in the Bodleian Library at Oxford.<br> +<br> +He published in 1662 and 1685 a “Treatise of Taxes and Contributions, +the same being frequently to the present state and affairs of Ireland,” +of which his view started from the general opinion that men should contribute +to the public charge according to their interest in the public peace +- that is, according to their riches. “Now, he said, “there +are two sorts of riches - one actual, and the other potential. +A man is actually and truly rich according to what he eateth, drinketh, +weareth, or in any other way really and actually enjoyeth. Others +are but potentially and imaginatively rich, who though they have power +over much, make little use of it, these being rather stewards and exchangers +for the other sort than owners for themselves.” He then +showed how he considered that “every man ought to contribute according +to what he taketh to himself, and actually enjoyeth.”<br> +<br> +In 1674 Sir William Petty published a paper on “Duplicate Proportion,” +and in 1679 he published in Latin a “Colloquy of David with his +Own Soul.” In 1682 he published a tract called “Quantulumcunque, +concerning Money;” and “England’s Guide to Industry,” +in 1686. From 1682 to 1687, the year of his death, Sir William +Petty was drawing great attention to the “Essays on Political +Arithmetic,” which are here reprinted. There was the little +“Essay in Political Arithmetic, concerning the People, Housings, +Hospitals of London and Paris;” published in 1682, again in French +in 1686, and again in English in 1687. There was the little “Essay +concerning the Multiplication of Mankind, together with an Essay on +the Growth of London,” published in 1682, and again in 1683 and +1686. There was in 1683, “Another Essay in Political Arithmetic +concerning the growth of the City of London.” There were +“Farther Considerations on the Dublin Bills of Mortality,” +in 1686; and “Five Essays on Political Arithmetic” (in French +and English), “Observations upon the Cities of London and Rome,” +in 1687, the last year of Sir William Petty’s life. Other +writings of his were published in his lifetime, or have been published +since his death. He was in the study of political economy one +of the most ingenious and practical thinkers before the days of Adam +Smith.<br> +<br> +But the interest of those “Essays in Political Arithmetic” +lies chiefly in the facts presented by so trustworthy an authority. +London had become in the time of the Stuarts the most populous city +in Europe, if not in the world. This Sir William Petty sought +to prove against the doubts of foreign and other critics, and his “Political +Arithmetic” was an endeavour to determine the relative strength +in population of the chief cities of England, France, and Holland. +His application of arithmetic in the first of these essays to a census +of the population at the Day of Judgment he himself spoke of slightingly. +It is a curious example of a bygone form of theological discussion. +But his tables and his reasonings upon them grow in interest as he attempts +his numbering of the people in the reign of James II. by collecting +facts upon which his deductions might be founded. The references +to the deaths by Plague in London before the cleansing of the town by +the great fire of 1666 are very suggestive; and in one passage there +is incidental note of delay in the coming of the Plague then due, without +reckoning the change made in conditions of health by the rebuilding. +Nobody knew, and no one even now can calculate, how many lives the Fire +of London saved.<br> +<br> +There was in Petty’s time no direct numbering of the people. +The first census in this country was not until more than a hundred years +after Sir William Petty’s death, although he points out in these +essays how easily it could be established, and what useful information +it would give. There was a census taken at Rome 566 years before +Christ. But the first census in Great Britain was taken in 1801, +under provision of an Act passed on the last day of the year 1800, to +secure a numbering of the population every ten years. Ireland +was not included in the return; the first census in Ireland was not +until the year 1813.<br> +<br> +Sir William Petty had to base his calculations partly upon the Bills +of Mortality, which had been imperfectly begun under Elizabeth, but +fell into disuse, and were revived, as a weekly record of the number +of deaths, beginning on the 29th of October, 1603; notices of diseases +first appeared in them in 1629. The weekly bills were published +every Thursday, and any householder could have them supplied to him +for four shillings a year. These essays will show how inferences +as to the number of the living were drawn from the number of the dead. +And even now our Political Arithmetic depends too much upon rough calculations +made from the death register. It is seven years since the last +census; we have lost count of the changes in our population to a very +great extent, and have to wait three years before our reckoning can +be made sure. The interval should be reduced to five years.<br> +<br> +Another of Sir William Petty’s helps in the arithmetic of population +was the Chimney Tax, a revival of the old fumage or hearth-money - smoke +farthings, as the people called them - once paid, according to Domesday +Book, for every chimney in a house. Charles the Second had set +up a chimney tax in the year 1662; the statistics of the collection +were at the service of Sir William Petty. The tax outlived him +but two years. It was promptly abolished in the first year of +William and Mary.<br> +<br> +The interest taken at home and abroad in these calculations of Political +Arithmetic set other men calculating, and reasoning upon their calculations. +The next worker in that direction was Gregory King, Lancaster Herald, +whose calculations immediately followed those of Sir William Petty. +Sir William Petty’s essays extended from 1682 until his death +in 1687. Gregory King’s estimates were made in 1689. +They were a study of the number population and distribution of wealth +among us at the time of the English Revolution, and the unpublished +results were first printed in a chapter on “The People of England,” +which formed part a volume published in 1699 as “An Essay upon +the Probable Methods of making a People Gainers in the Balance of Trade, +by the Author of the Essay on Ways and Means.” The volume +was written by a member of Parliament in the days of William and Mary, +who desired to apply principles of political economy to the maintenance +of English wealth and liberty. It has been wrongly scribed to +Defoe; and its suggestion of the plan a trading Corporation for solution +of the whole problem of relief to the poor who cannot work, and relief +from the poor who can, might indeed make another chapter in Defoe’s +“Essay on Projects.” The chapter, which gives the +Political Arithmetic of Gregory King, with such comment and suggestions +as might be expected from a liberal supporter of the Revolution, and +with this suggestion of a Corporation, is in itself a complete essay. +It follows naturally upon the Political Arithmetic of Sir William Petty +in close sequence of time, and in carrying a like method of inquiry +forward until it reaches a few more conclusions. I have, therefore, +added it to this volume. It seems, at any rate, to show how Sir +William Petty’s books, of which the very small size grieved the +stationer, had a large influence on other minds; his figures bearing +fruit in a new search for facts and careful reasoning on the condition +of the country at one of the most critical times in English history.<br> +<br> +H. M.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +THE STATIONER TO THE READER<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +The ensuing essay concerning the growth of the city of London was entitled +“Another Essay,” intimating that some other essay had preceded +it, which was not to be found. I having been much importuned for +that precedent essay, have found that the same was about the growth, +increase, and multiplication of mankind, which subject should in order +of nature precede that of the growth of the city of London, but am not +able to procure the essay itself, only I have obtained from a gentleman, +who sometimes corresponded with Sir W. Petty, an extract of a letter +from Sir William to him, which I verily believe containeth the scope +thereof; wherefore, I must desire the reader to be content therewith, +till more can be had.<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>The extract of a letter concerning the scope of an essay intended +to precede another essay concerning the growth of the City of London</i>,<i> +&c. An Essay in Political Arithmetic</i>,<i> concerning the +value and increase of People and Colonies.<br> +<br> +</i>The scope of this essay is concerning people and colonies, and to +make way for “Another Essay” concerning the growth of the +city of London. I desire in this first essay to give the world +some light concerning the numbers of people in England, with Wales, +and in Ireland; as also of the number of houses and families wherein +they live, and of acres they occupy.<br> +<br> +2. How many live upon their lands, how many upon their personal +estates and commerce, and how many upon art, and labour; how many upon +alms, how many upon offices and public employments, and how many as +cheats and thieves; how many are impotents, children, and decrepit old +men.<br> +<br> +3. How many upon the poll-taxes in England, do pay extraordinary +rates, and how many at the level.<br> +<br> +4. How many men and women are prolific, and how many of each are +married or unmarried.<br> +<br> +5. What the value of people are in England, and what in Ireland +at a medium, both as members of the Church or Commonwealth, or as slaves +and servants to one another; with a method how to estimate the same, +in any other country or colony.<br> +<br> +6. How to compute the value of land in colonies, in comparison +to England and Ireland.<br> +<br> +7. How 10,000 people in a colony may be planted to the best advantage.<br> +<br> +8. A conjecture in what number of years England and Ireland may +be fully peopled, as also all America, and lastly the whole habitable +earth.<br> +<br> +9. What spot of the earth’s globe were fittest for a general +and universal emporium, whereby all the people thereof may best enjoy +one another’s labours and commodities.<br> +<br> +10. Whether the speedy peopling of the earth would make<br> +<br> +(1) For the good of mankind.<br> +<br> +(2) To fulfil the revealed will of God.<br> +<br> +(3) To what prince or State the same would be most advantageous.<br> +<br> +11. An exhortation to all thinking men to solve the Scriptures +and other good histories, concerning the number of people in all ages +of the world, in the great cities thereof, and elsewhere.<br> +<br> +12. An appendix concerning the different number of sea-fish and +wild-fowl at the end of every thousand years since Noah’s Flood.<br> +<br> +13. An hypothesis of the use of those spaces (of about 8,000 miles +through) within the globe of our earth, supposing a shell of 150 miles +thick.<br> +<br> +14. What may be the meaning of glorified bodies, in case the place +of the blessed shall be without the convex of the orb of the fixed stars, +if that the whole system of the world was made for the use of our earth’s +men.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +THE PRINCIPAL POINTS OF THIS DISCOURSE<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +1. That London doubles in forty years, and all England in three +hundred and sixty years.<br> +<br> +2. That there be, A.D. 1682, about 670,000 souls in London, and +about 7,400,000 in all England and Wales, and about 28,000,000 of acres +of profitable land.<br> +<br> +3. That the periods of doubling the people are found to be, in +all degrees, from between ten to twelve hundred years.<br> +<br> +4. That the growth of London must stop of itself before the year +1800.<br> +<br> +5. A table helping to understand the Scriptures, concerning the +number of people mentioned in them.<br> +<br> +6. That the world will be fully peopled within the next two thousand +years.<br> +<br> +7. Twelve ways whereby to try any proposal pretended for the public +good.<br> +<br> +8. How the city of London may be made (morally speaking) invincible.<br> +<br> +9. A help to uniformity in religion.<br> +<br> +10. That it is possible to increase mankind by generation four +times more than at present.<br> +<br> +11. The plagues of London is the chief impediment and objection +against the growth of the city.<br> +<br> +12. That an exact account of the people is necessary in this matter.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +OF THE GROWTH OF THE CITY OF LONDON: <i>And of the Measures</i>,<i> +Periods</i>,<i> Causes</i>,<i> and Consequences thereof<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>By the city of London we mean the housing within the walls of the +old city, with the liberties thereof, Westminster, the Borough of Southwark, +and so much of the built ground in Middlesex and Surrey, whose houses +are contiguous unto, or within call of those aforementioned. Or +else we mean the housing which stand upon the ninety-seven parishes +within the walls of London; upon the sixteen parishes next without them; +the six parishes of Westminster, and the fourteen out-parishes in Middlesex +and Surrey, contiguous to the former, all which, 133 parishes, are comprehended +within the weekly bills of mortality.<br> +<br> +The growth of this city is measured. (1) By the quantity of ground, +or number of acres upon which it stands. (2) By the number of +houses, as the same appears by the hearth-books and late maps. (3) By +the cubical content of the said housing. (4) By the flooring of +the same. (5) By the number of days’ work, or charge of +building the said houses. (6) By the value of the said houses, +according to their yearly rent, and number of years’ purchase. +(7) By the number of inhabitants; according to which latter sense only +we make our computations in this essay.<br> +<br> +Till a better rule can be obtained, we conceive that the proportion +of the people may be sufficiently measured by the proportion of the +burials in such years as were neither remarkable for extraordinary healthfulness +or sickliness.<br> +<br> +That the city hath increased in this latter sense appears from the bills +of mortality represented in the two following tables, viz., one whereof +is a continuation for eighteen years, ending 1682, of that table which +was published in the 117th page of the book of the observations upon +the London bills of mortality, printed in the year 1676. The other +showeth what number of people died at a medium of two years, indifferently +taken, at about twenty years’ distance from each other.<br> +<br> +The first of the said two tables.<br> +<br> +<pre>A.D. 97 16 Out Buried Besides of Christened + Parishes Parishes Parishes in all the Plague +1665 5,320 12,463 10,925 28,708 68,596 9,967 +1666 1,689 3,969 5,082 10,740 1,998 8,997 +1667 761 6,405 8,641 15,807 35 10,938 +1668 796 6,865 9,603 17,267 14 11,633 +1669 1,323 7,500 10,440 19,263 3 12,335 +1670 1,890 7,808 10,500 20,198 11,997 +1671 1,723 5,938 8,063 15,724 5 12,510 +1672 2,237 6,788 9,200 18,225 5 12,593 +1673 2,307 6,302 8,890 17,499 5 11,895 +1674 2,801 7,522 10,875 21,198 3 11,851 +1675 2,555 5,986 8,702 17,243 1 11,775 +1676 2,756 6,508 9,466 18,730 2 12,399 +1677 2,817 6,632 9,616 19,065 2 12,626 +1678 3,060 6,705 10,908 20,673 5 12,601 +1679 3,074 7,481 11,173 21,728 2 12,288 +1680 3,076 7,066 10,911 21,053 12,747 +1681 3,669 8,136 12,166 23,971 13,355 +1682 2,975 7,009 10,707 20,691 12,653 + +</pre>According to which latter table there died as follows:-<br> +<br> +<br> +THE LATTER OF THE SAID TWO TABLES<br> +<br> +<i>There died in London at the medium between the years -<br> +<br> +</i><pre>1604 and 1605 . . . 5,135. A. +1621 and 1622 . . . 8,527. B. +1641 and 1642 . . . 11,883. C. +1661 and 1662 . . . 15,148. D. +1681 and 1682 . . . 22,331. E. + + +</pre>Wherein observe, that the number C is double to A and 806 over. +That D is double to B within 1,906. That C and D is double to +A and B within 293. That E is double to C within 1,435. +That D and E is double to B and C within 3,341; and that C and D and +E are double to A and B and C within 1,736; and that E is above quadruple +to A. All which differences (every way considered) do allow the +doubling of the people of London in 40 years to be a sufficient estimate +thereof in round numbers, and without the trouble of fractions. +We also say that 669,930 is near the number of people now in London, +because the burials are 22,331, which, multiplied by 30 (one dying yearly +out of 30, as appears in the 94th page of the aforementioned observations), +maketh the said number; and because there are 84,000 tenanted houses +(as we are credibly informed), which, at 8 in each, makes 672,000 souls; +the said two accounts differing inconsiderably from each other.<br> +<br> +We have thus pretty well found out in what number of years (viz., in +about 40) that the city of London hath doubled, and the present number +of inhabitants to be about 670,000. We must now also endeavour +the same for the whole territory of England and Wales. In order +whereunto, we first say that the assessment of London is about an eleventh +part of the whole territory, and, therefore, that the people of the +whole may well be eleven times that of London, viz., about 7,369,000 +souls; with which account that of the poll-money, hearth-money, and +the bishop’s late numbering of the communicants, do pretty well +agree; wherefore, although the said number of 7,369,000 be not (as it +cannot be) a demonstrated truth, yet it will serve for a good supposition, +which is as much as we want at present.<br> +<br> +As for the time in which the people double, it is yet more hard to be +found. For we have good experience (in the said page 94 of the +aforementioned observations) that in the country but 1 of 50 die per +annum; and by other late accounts, that there have been sometimes but +24 births for 23 burials. The which two points, if they were universally +and constantly true, there would be colour enough to say that the people +doubled but in about 1,200 years. As, for example, suppose there +be 600 people, of which let a fiftieth part die per annum, then there +shall die 12 per annum; and if the births be as 24 to 23, then the increase +of the people shall be somewhat above half a man per annum, and consequently +the supposed number of 600 cannot be doubled but in 1,126 years, which, +to reckon in round numbers, and for that the aforementioned fractions +were not exact, we had rather call 1,200.<br> +<br> +There are also other good observations, that even in the country one +in about 30 or 32 per annum hath died, and that there have been five +births for four burials. Now, according to this doctrine, 20 will +die per annum out of the above 600, and 25 will be born, so as the increase +will be five, which is a hundred and twentieth part of the said 600. +So as we have two fair computations, differing from each other as one +to ten; and there are also several other good observations for other +measures.<br> +<br> +I might here insert, that although the births in this last computation +be 25 of 600, or a twenty-fourth part of the people, yet that in natural +possibility they may be near thrice as many, and near 75. For +that by some late observations, the teeming females between 15 and 44 +are about 180 of the said 600, and the males of between 18 and 59 are +about 180 also, and that every teeming woman can bear a child once in +two years; from all which it is plain that the births may be 90 (and +abating 15 for sickness, young abortions, and natural barrenness), there +may remain 75 births, which is an eighth of the people, which by some +observations we have found to be but a two-and-thirtieth part, or but +a quarter of what is thus shown to be naturally possible. Now, +according to this reckoning, if the births may be 75 of 600, and the +burials but 15, then the annual increase of the people will be 60; and +so the said 600 people may double in ten years, which differs yet more +from 1,200 above-mentioned. Now, to get out of this difficulty, +and to temper those vast disagreements, I took the medium of 50 and +30 dying per annum, and pitched upon 40; and I also took the medium +between 24 births and 23 burials, and 5 births for 4 burials, viz., +allowing about 10 births for 9 burials; upon which supposition there +must die 15 per annum out of the above-mentioned 600, and the births +must be 16 and two-thirds, and the increase one and two-thirds, or five-thirds +of a man, which number, compared with 1,800 thirds, or 600 men, gives +360 years for the time of doubling (including some allowance for wars, +plagues, and famines, the effects thereof), though they be terrible +at the times and places where they happen, yet in a period of 360 years +is no great matter in the whole nation. For the plagues of England +in twenty years have carried away scarce an eightieth part of the people +of the whole nation; and the late ten years’ civil wars +(the like whereof hath not been in several ages before) did not take +away above a fortieth part of the whole people.<br> +<br> +According to which account or measure of doubling, if there be now in +England and Wales 7,400,000 people, there were about 5,526,000 in the +beginning of Queen Elizabeth’s reign, A.D. 1560, and about 2,000,000 +at the Norman Conquest, of which consult the Doomsday Book, and my Lord +Hale’s “Origination of Mankind.”<br> +<br> +Memorandum. - That if the people double in 360 years, that the present +320,000,000 computed by some learned men (from the measures of all the +nations of the world, their degrees of being peopled, and good accounts +of the people in several of them) to be now upon the face of the earth, +will within the next 2,000 years so increase as to give one head for +every two acres of land in the habitable part of the earth. And +then, according to the prediction of the Scriptures, there must be wars, +and great slaughter, &c.<br> +<br> +Wherefore, as an expedient against the above-mentioned difference between +10 and 1,200 years, we do for the present, and in this country, admit +of 360 years to be the time wherein the people of England do double, +according to the present laws and practice of marriages.<br> +<br> +Now, if the city double its people in 40 years, and the present number +be 670,000, and if the whole territory be 7,400,000, and double in 360 +years, as aforesaid, then by the underwritten table it appears that +A.D. 1840 the people of the city will be 10,718,880, and those of the +whole country but 10,917,389, which is but inconsiderably more. +Wherefore it is certain and necessary that the growth of the city must +stop before the said year 1840, and will be at its utmost height in +the next preceding period, A.D. 1800, when the number of the city will +be eight times its present number, 5,359,000. And when (besides +the said number) there will be 4,466,000 to perform the tillage, pasturage, +and other rural works necessary to be done without the said city, as +by the following table, viz.:-<br> +<br> +<br> + <pre>A.D. Burials People in People in + London England + 1565 2,568 77,040 5,526,929 +As in the } 1605 5,135 +former table } 1642 11,883 + } 1682 22,331 669,930 7,369,230 + 1722 44,662 + 1762 89,324 + 1802 178,648 5,359,440 9,825,650 + 1842 357,296 10,718,889 10,917,389 + + +</pre>Now, when the people of London shall come to be so near the people +of all England, then it follows that the growth of London must stop +before the said year 1842, as aforesaid, and must be at its greatest +height A.D. 1800, when it will be eight times more than now, with above +4,000,000 for the service of the country and ports, as aforesaid.<br> +<br> +Of the aforementioned vast difference between 10 years and 1,200 years +for doubling the people, we make this use, viz.:- To justify the Scriptures +and all other good histories concerning the number of the people in +ancient time. For supposing the eight persons who came out of +the Ark, increased by a progressive doubling in every ten years, might +grow in the first 100 years after the Flood from 8 to 8,000, and that +in 350 years after the Flood (whereabouts Noah died) to 1,000,000 and +by this time, 1682, to 320,000,000 (which by rational conjecture are +thought to be now in the world), it will not be hard to compute how, +in the intermediate years, the growths may be made, according to what +is set down in the following table, wherein making the doubling to be +ten years at first, and within 1,200 years at last, we take a discretionary +liberty, but justifiable by observations and the Scriptures for the +rest, which table we leave to be corrected by historians who know the +bigness of ancient cities, armies, and colonies in the respective ages +of the world, in the meantime affirming that without such difference +in the measures and periods for doubling (the extremes whereof we have +demonstrated to be real and true) it is impossible to solve what is +written in the Holy Scriptures and other authentic books. For +if we pitch upon any one number throughout for this purpose, 150 years +is the fittest of all round numbers; according to which there would +have been but 512 souls in the whole world in Moses’ time (being +800 years after the Flood), when 603,000 Israelites of above twenty +years old (besides those of other ages, tribes, and nations) were found +upon an exact survey appointed by God, whereas our table makes 12,000,000. +And there would have been about 8,000 in David’s time, when were +found 1,100,000, of above twenty years old (besides others, as aforesaid) +in Israel, upon the survey instigated by Satan, whereas our table makes +32,000,000. And there would have been but a quarter of a million +about the birth of Christ, or Augustus’s time, when Rome and the +Roman Empire were so great, whereas our table makes 100,000,000. +Where note, that the Israelites in about 500 years, between their coming +out of Egypt to David’s reign, increased from 603,000 to 1,100,000.<br> +<br> +On the other hand, if we pitch upon a less number, as 100 years, the +world would have been over-peopled 700 years since. Wherefore +no one number will solve the phenomena, and therefore we have supposed +several, in order to make the following table, which we again desire +historians to correct, according to what they find in antiquity concerning +the number of the people in each age and country of the world.<br> +<br> +We did (not long since) assist a worthy divine, writing against some +sceptics, who would have baffled our belief of the resurrection, by +saying, that the whole globe of the earth could not furnish matter enough +for all the bodies that must rise at the last day, much less would the +surface of the earth furnish footing for so vast a number; whereas we +did (by the method afore mentioned) assert the number of men now living, +and also of those that had died since the beginning of the world, and +did withal show, that half the island of Ireland would afford them all, +not only footing to stand upon, but graves to lie down in, for that +whole number; and that two mountains in that country were as weighty +as all the bodies that had ever been from the beginning of the world +to the year 1680, when this dispute happened. For which purpose +I have digressed from my intended purpose to insert this matter, intending +to prosecute this hint further upon some more proper occasion.<br> +<br> +<br> +A TABLE SHOWING HOW THE PEOPLE MIGHT HAVE DOUBLED IN THE SEVERAL AGES +OF THE WORLD.<br> +<br> + <pre>A.D., after the Flood. +Periods of { 1 8 persons. +doubling { 10 16 + { 20 32 + { 30 64 + { 40 128 + In 10 years { 50 256 + { 60 512 + { 70 1,024 + { 80 2,048 + { 90 4,096 + { 100 8,000 and more. + { 120 years after + In 20 years { the Flood. 16,000 + { 140 32,000 + { 170 64,000 + 30 { + { 200 128,000 + 40 240 256,000 + 50 290 512,000 + 60 350 1,000,000 and more. + 70 420 2,000,000 + 100 520 4,000,000 + 190 710 8,000,000 + 290 1,000 16,000,000 in Moses’ time. + 400 1,400 32,000,000 about David’s time. + 550 1,950 64,000,000 + 750 2,700 128,000,000 about the birth of Christ. + 1,000 3,700 256,000,000 + 300 { +In { 4,000 320,000,000 + 1,200 { + + +</pre>It is here to be noted, that in this table we have assigned a +different number of years for the time of doubling the people in the +several ages of the world, and might have done the same for the several +countries of the world, and therefore the said several periods assigned +to the whole world in the lump may well enough consist with the 360 +years especially assigned to England, between this day and the Norman +Conquest; and the said 360 years may well enough serve for a supposition +between this time and that of the world’s being fully peopled; +nor do we lay any stress upon one or the other in this disquisition +concerning the growth of the city of London.<br> +<br> +We have spoken of the growth of London, with the measures and periods +thereof; we come next to the causes and consequences of the same.<br> +<br> +The causes of its growth from 1642 to 1682 may be said to have been +as follows, viz.:- From 1642 to 1650, that men came out of the country +to London, to shelter themselves from the outrages of the Civil Wars +during that time; from 1650 to 1660, the royal party came to London +for their more private and inexpensive living; from 1660 to 1670, the +king’s friends and party came to receive his favours after his +happy restoration; from 1670 to 1680, the frequency of plots and parliaments +might bring extraordinary numbers to the city; but what reasons to assign +for the like increase from 1604 to 1642 I know not, unless I should +pick out some remarkable accident happening in each part of the said +period, and make that to be the cause of this increase (as vulgar people +make the cause of every man’s sickness to be what he did last +eat), wherefore, rather than so to say <i>quidlibet de quolibet</i>, +I had rather quit even what I have above said to be the cause of London’s +increase from 1642 to 1682, and put the whole upon some natural and +spontaneous benefits and advantages that men find by living in great +more than in small societies, and shall therefore seek for the antecedent +causes of this growth in the consequences of the like, considered in +greater characters and proportions.<br> +<br> +Now, whereas in arithmetic, out of two false positions the truth is +extracted, so I hope out of two extravagant contrary suppositions to +draw forth some solid and consistent conclusion, viz.:-<br> +<br> +The first of the said two suppositions is, that the city of London is +seven times bigger than now, and that the inhabitants of it are 4,690,000 +people, and that in all the other cities, ports, towns, and villages, +there are but 2,710,000 more.<br> +<br> +The other supposition is, that the city of London is but a seventh part +of its present bigness, and that the inhabitants of it are but 96,000, +and that the rest of the inhabitants (being 7,304,000) do cohabit thus: +104,000 of them in small cities and towns, and that the rest, being +7,200,000, do inhabit in houses not contiguous to one another, viz., +in 1,200,000 houses, having about twenty-four acres of ground belonging +to each of them, accounting about 28,000,000 of acres to be in the whole +territory of England, Wales, and the adjacent islands, which any man +that pleases may examine upon a good map.<br> +<br> +Now, the question is, in which of these two imaginary states would be +the most convenient, commodious, and comfortable livings?<br> +<br> +But this general question divides itself into the several questions, +relating to the following particulars, viz.:-<br> +<br> +1. For the defence of the kingdom against foreign powers.<br> +<br> +2. For preventing the intestine commotions of parties and factions.<br> +<br> +3. For peace and uniformity in religion.<br> +<br> +4. For the administration of justice.<br> +<br> +5. For the proportionably taxing of the people, and easy levying +the same.<br> +<br> +6. For gain by foreign commerce.<br> +<br> +7. For husbandry, manufacture, and for arts of delight and ornament.<br> +<br> +8. For lessening the fatigue of carriages and travelling.<br> +<br> +9. For preventing beggars and thieves.<br> +<br> +10. For the advancement and propagation of useful learning.<br> +<br> +11. For increasing the people by generation.<br> +<br> +12. For preventing the mischiefs of plagues and contagious. +And withal, which of the said two states is most practicable and natural, +for in these and the like particulars do lie the tests and touchstones +of all proposals that can be made for the public good.<br> +<br> +First, as to practicable, we say, that although our said extravagant +proposals are both in nature possible, yet it is not obvious to every +man to conceive how London, now seven times bigger than in the beginning +of Queen Elizabeth’s reign, should be seven times bigger than +now it is, and forty-nine times bigger than A.D. 1560. To which +I say, 1. That the present city of London stands upon less than +2,500 acres of ground, wherefore a city seven times as large may stand +upon 10,500 acres, which is about equivalent to a circle of four miles +and a half in diameter, and less than fifteen miles in circumference. +2. That a circle of ground of thirty-five miles semidiameter will +bear corn, garden-stuff, fruits, hay, and timber, for the 4,690,000 +inhabitants of the said city and circle, so as nothing of that kind +need be brought from above thirty-five miles distance from the said +city; for the number of acres within the said circle, reckoning two +acres sufficient to furnish bread and drink-corn for every head, and +two acres will furnish hay for every necessary horse; and that the trees +which may grow in the hedgerows of the fields within the said circle +may furnish timber for 600,000 houses. 3. That all live cattle +and great animals can bring themselves to the said city; and that fish +can be brought from the Land’s End and Berwick as easily as now. +4. Of coals there is no doubt: and for water, 20s. per family +(or £600,000 per annum in the whole) will serve this city, especially +with the help of the New River. But if by practicable be understood +that the present state may be suddenly changed into either of the two +above-mentioned proposals, I think it is not practicable. Wherefore +the true question is, unto or towards which of the said two extravagant +states it is best to bend the present state by degrees, viz., Whether +it be best to lessen or enlarge the present city? In order whereunto, +we inquire (as to the first question) which state is most defensible +against foreign powers, saying, that if the above-mentioned housing, +and a border of ground, of three-quarters of a mile broad, were encompassed +with a wall and ditch of twenty miles about (as strong as any in Europe, +which would cost but a million, or about a penny in the shilling of +the house-rent for one year) what foreign prince could bring an army +from beyond seas, able to beat - 1. Our sea-forces, and next with horse +harassed at sea, to resist all the fresh horse that England could make, +and then conquer above a million of men, well united, disciplined, and +guarded within such a wall, distant everywhere three-quarters of a mile +from the housing, to elude the granadoes and great shot of the enemy? +2. As to intestine parties and factions, I suppose that 4,690,000 +people united within this great city could easily govern half the said +number scattered without it, and that a few men in arms within the said +city and wall could also easily govern the rest unarmed, or armed in +such a manner as the Sovereign shall think fit. 3. As to uniformity +in religion, I conceive, that if St. Martin’s parish (may as it +doth) consist of about 40,000 souls, that this great city also may as +well be made but as one parish, with seven times 130 chapels, in which +might not only be an uniformity of common prayer, but in preaching also; +for that a thousand copies of one judiciously and authentically composed +sermon might be every week read in each of the said chapels without +any subsequent repetition of the same, as in the case of homilies. +Whereas in England (wherein are near 10,000 parishes, in each of which +upon Sundays, holy days, and other extraordinary occasions there should +be about 100 sermons annum, making about a million of sermons per annum +in the whole) it were a miracle, if a million of sermons composed by +so many men, and of so many minds and methods, should produce uniformity +upon the discomposed understandings of about 8,000,000 of hearers.<br> +<br> +4. As to the administration of justice. If in this great +city shall dwell the owners of all the lands, and other valuable things +in England; if within it shall be all the traders, and all the courts, +offices, records, juries, and witnesses; then it follows that justice +may be done with speed and ease.<br> +<br> +5. As to the equality and easy levying of taxes. It is too +certain that London hath at some time paid near half the excise of England, +and that the people pay thrice as much for the hearths in London as +those in the country, in proportion to the people of each, and that +the charge of collecting these duties have been about a sixth part of +the duty itself. Now in this great city the excise alone according +to the present laws would not only be double to the whole kingdom, but +also more equal. And the duty of hearths of the said city would +exceed the present proceed of the whole kingdom. And as for the +customs we mention them not at present.<br> +<br> +6. Whether more would be gained by foreign commerce? The +gain which England makes by lead, coals, the freight of shipping, &c., +may be the same, for aught I see, in both cases. But the gain +which is made by manufactures will be greater as the manufacture itself +is greater and better. For in so vast a city manufactures will +beget one another, and each manufacture will be divided into as many +parts as possible, whereby the work of each artisan will be simple and +easy. As, for example, in the making of a watch, if one man shall +make the wheels, another the spring, another shall engrave the dial-plate, +and another shall make the cases, then the watch will be better and +cheaper than if the whole work be put upon any one man. And we +also see that in towns, and in the streets of a great town, where all +the inhabitants are almost of one trade, the commodity peculiar to those +places is made better and cheaper than elsewhere. Moreover, when +all sorts of manufactures are made in one place, there every ship that +goeth forth can suddenly have its loading of so many several particulars +and species as the port whereunto she is bound can take off. Again, +when the several manufactures are made in one place, and shipped off +in another, the carriage, postage, and travelling charges, will enhance +the price of such manufacture, and lessen the gain upon foreign commerce. +And lastly, when the imported goods are spent in the port itself, where +they are landed, the carriage of the same into other places will create +no further charge upon such commodity; all which particulars tend to +the greater gain by foreign commerce.<br> +<br> +7. As for arts of delight and ornament. They are best promoted +by the greatest number of emulators. And it is more likely that +one ingenious curious man may rather be found out amongst 4,000,000 +than 400 persons. But as for husbandry, viz., tillage and pasturage, +I see no reason, but the second state (when each family is charged with +the culture of about twenty-four acres) will best promote the same.<br> +<br> +8. As for lessening the fatigue of carriage and travelling.<br> +<br> +The thing speaks for itself, for if all the men of business, and all +artisans, do live within five miles of each other, and if those who +live without the great city do spend only such commodities as grow where +they live, then the charge of carriage and travelling could be little.<br> +<br> +9. As to the preventing of beggars and thieves.<br> +<br> +I do not find how the differences of the said two states should make +much difference in this particular; for impotents (which are but one +in about 600) ought to be maintained by the rest. 2. Those who +are unable to work, through the evil education of their parents, ought +(for aught I know) to be maintained by their nearest kindred, as a just +punishment upon them. 3. And those who cannot find work (though +able and willing to perform it), by reason of the unequal application +of hands to lands, ought to be provided for by the magistrate and landlord +till that can be done; for there need be no beggars in countries where +there are many acres of unimproved improvable land to every head, as +there are in England. As for thieves, they are for the most part +begotten from the same cause; for it is against Nature that any man +should venture his life, limb, or liberty, for a wretched livelihood, +whereas moderate labour will produce a better. But of this see +Sir Thomas More, in the first part of his “Utopia.”<br> +<br> +10. As to the propagation and improvement of useful learning.<br> +<br> +The same may be said concerning it as was above said concerning manufactures, +and the arts of delight and ornaments; for in the great vast city there +can be no so odd a conceit or design whereunto some assistance may not +be found, which in the thin, scattered way of habitation may not be.<br> +<br> +11. As for the increase of people by generation. I see no +great difference from either of the two states, for the same may be +hindered or promoted in either from the same causes.<br> +<br> +12. As to the plague.<br> +<br> +It is to be remembered that one time with another a plague happeneth +in London once in twenty years, or thereabouts; for in the last hundred +years, between the years 1582 and 1682, there have been five great plagues +- viz., A.D. 1592, 1603, 1625, 1636, and 1665. And it is also +to be remembered that the plagues of London do commonly kill one-fifth +part of the inhabitants. Now if the whole people of England do +double but in 360 years, then the annual increase of the same is but +20,000, and in twenty years 400,000. But if in the city of London +there should be 2,000,000 of people (as there will be about sixty years +hence), then the plague (killing one-fifth of them, namely, 400,000 +once in twenty years) will destroy as many in one year as the whole +nation can re-furnish in twenty; and consequently the people of the +nation shall never increase. But if the people of London shall +be above 4,000,000 (as in the first of our two extravagant suppositions +is premised), then the people of the whole nation shall lessen above +20,000 per annum. So as if people be worth £70 per head +(as hath elsewhere been shown), then the said greatness of the city +will be a damage to itself and the whole nation of £1,400,000 +per annum, and so <i>pro rata </i>for a greater or lesser number; wherefore +to determine which of the two states is best - that is to say, towards +which of the said two states authority should bend the present state, +a just balance ought to be made between the disadvantages from the plague, +with the advantages accruing from the other particulars above mentioned, +unto which balance a more exact account of the people, and a better +rule for the measure of its growth is necessary than what we have here +given, or are yet able to lay down.<br> +<br> +<br> +POSTSCRIPT.<br> +<br> +<br> +It was not very pertinent to a discourse concerning the growth of the +city of London to thrust in considerations of the time when the whole +world will be fully peopled; and how to justify the Scriptures concerning +the number of people mentioned in them; and concerning the number of +the quick and the dead that may rise at the last day, &c. +Nevertheless, since some friends, liking the said digressions and impertinences +(perhaps as sauce to a dry discourse) have desired that the same might +be explained and made out, I, therefore, say as followeth:-<br> +<br> +1. If the number of acres in the habitable part of the earth be +under 50,000,000,000; if 20,000,000,000 of people are more than the +said number of acres will feed (few or no countries being so fully peopled), +and for that in six doublings (which will be in 2,000 years) the present +320,000,000 will exceed the said 20,000,000,000.<br> +<br> +2. That the number of all those who have died since the Flood +is the sum of all the products made by multiplying the number of the +doubling periods mentioned in the first column of the last table, by +the number of people respectively affixed to them in the third column +of the same table, the said sum being divided by 40 (one dying out of +40 per annum out of the whole mass of mankind), which quotient is 12,570,000,000; +whereunto may be added, for those that died before the Flood, enough +to make the last-mentioned number 20,000,000,000, as the full number +of all that died from the beginning of the world to the year 1682, unto +which, if 320,000,000, the number of those who are now alive, be added, +the total of the quick and the dead will amount but unto one fifth part +of the graves which the surface of Ireland will afford, without ever +putting two bodies into any one grave; for there be in Ireland 28,000 +square English miles, each whereof will afford about 4,000,000 of graves, +and consequently above 114,000,000,000 of graves, viz., about five times +the number of the quick and the dead which should arise at the last +day, in case the same had been in the year 1682.<br> +<br> +3. Now, if there may be place for five times as many graves in +Ireland as are sufficient for all that ever died, and if the earth of +one grave weigh five times as much as the body interred therein, then +a turf less than a foot thick pared off from a fifth part of the surface +of Ireland, will be equivalent in bulk and weight to all the bodies +that ever were buried, and may serve as well for that purpose as the +two mountains aforementioned in the body of this discourse. From +all which it is plain how madly they were mistaken who did so petulantly +vilify what the Holy Scriptures have delivered.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +FURTHER OBSERVATION UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS; <i>Or</i>,<i> Accounts of +the Houses</i>,<i> Hearths</i>,<i> Baptisms</i>,<i> and Burials in that +City.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>THE STATIONER TO THE READER.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +I have not thought fit to make any alteration of the first edition, +but have only added a new table, with observation upon it, placing the +same in the front of what was before, which, perhaps, might have been +as well placed after the like table at the eighth page of the first +edition.<br> +<br> +<br> +DUBLIN, 1682.<br> +<br> +<pre>Parishes Houses Fireplaces Baptised Buried +St. James’s 272 836 } +St. Katherine’s 540 2,198 } 122 306 +St. Nicholas } + Without and } 1,064 4,082 145 414 + St. Patrick’s } +St. Bridget’s 395 1,903 68 149 +St. Audone’s 276 1,510 56 164 +St. Michael’s 174 884 34 50 +St. John’s 302 1,636 74 101 +St. Nicholas } + Within and } 153 902 26 52 +Christ Church Lib. } +St. Warburgh’s 240 1,638 45 105 +St. Michan’s 938 3,516 124 389 +St. Andrew’s 864 3,638 131 300 +St. Kevin’s 554 2,120 } 87 233 +Donnybrook 253 506 } + 6,025 25,369 912 2,263 + + +</pre>The table hath been made for the year 1682, wherein is to be noted +-<br> +<br> +1. That the houses which A.D. 1671 were but 3,850 are, A.D. 1682, +6,025; but whether this difference is caused by the real increase of +housing, or by fraud and defect in the former accounts, is left to consideration. +For the burials of people have increased but from 1,696 to 2,263, according +to which proportion the 3,850 houses A.D. 1671 should A.D. 1682 have +been but 5,143, wherefore some fault may be suspected as aforesaid, +when farming the hearth-money was in agitation.<br> +<br> +2. The hearths have increased according to the burials, and one-third +of the said increase more, viz., the burials A.D. 1671 were 1,696, the +one-third whereof is 563, which put together makes 2,259, which is near +the number of burials A.D. 1682. But the hearths A.D. 1671 were +17,500, whereof the one-third is 5,833, making in all but 23,333; whereas +the whole hearths A.D. 1682 were 25,369, viz., one-third and better +of the said 5,833 more.<br> +<br> +3. The housing were A.D. 1671 but 3,850, which if they had increased +A.D. 1682 but according to the burials, they had been but 5,143, or, +according to the hearths, had been but 5,488, whereas they appear 6,025, +increasing double to the hearths. So as it is likely there hath +been some error in the said account of the housing, unless the new housing +be very small, and have but one chimney apiece, and that one-fourth +part of them are untenanted. On the other hand, it is more likely +that when 1,696 died per annum there were near 6,000; for 6,000 houses +at 8 inhabitants per house, would make the number of the people to be +48,000, and the number of 1,696 that died according to the rule of one +out of 30, would have made the number of inhabitants about 50,000: for +which reason I continue to believe there was some error in the account +of 3,850 houses as aforesaid, and the rather because there is no ground +from experience to think that in eleven years the houses in Dublin have +increased from 3,850 to 6,025.<br> +<br> +Moreover, I rather think that the number of 6,025 is yet short, because +that number at 8 heads per house makes the inhabitants to be but 48,200; +whereas the 2,263 who died in the year 1682, according to the aforementioned +rule of one dying out of 30 makes the number of people to be 67,890, +the medium betwixt which number and 48,200 is 58,045, which is the best +estimate I can make of that matter, which I hope authority will ere +long rectify, by direct and exact inquiries.<br> +<br> +4. As to the births, we say that A.D. 1640, 1641, and 1642, at +London, just before the troubles in religion began, the births were +five-sixths of the burials, by reason I suppose of the greaterness of +families in London above the country, and the fewer breeders, and not +for want of registering. Wherefore, deducting one-sixth of 2,263, +which is 377, there remains 1,886 for the probable number of births +in Dublin for the year 1682; whereas but 912 are represented to have +been christened in that year, though 1,023 were christened A.D. 1671, +when there died but 1,696, which decreasing of the christening, and +increasing of the burials, shows the increase of non-registering in +the legal books, which must be the increase of Roman Catholics at Dublin.<br> +<br> +The scope of this whole paper therefore is, that the people of Dublin +are rather 58,000 than 32,000, and that the dissenters, who do not register +their baptisms, have increased from 391 to 974: but of dissenters, none +have increased but the Roman Catholics, whose numbers have increased +from about two to five in the said years. The exacter knowledge +whereof may also be better had from direct inquiries.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +OBSERVATIONS UPON THE DUBLIN BILLS OF MORTALITY, 1681: AND THE STATE +OF THAT CITY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +The observations upon the London bills of mortality have been a new +light to the world, and the like observation upon those of Dublin may +serve as snuffers to make the same candle burn clearer.<br> +<br> +The London observations flowed from bills regularly kept for near one +hundred years, but these are squeezed out of six straggling London bills, +out of fifteen Dublin bills, and from a note of the families and hearths +in each parish of Dublin, which are all digested into the one table +or sheet annexed, consisting of three parts, marked A, B, C; being indeed +the A, B, C of public economy, and even of that policy which tends to +peace and plenty.<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Observations upon the Table A.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>1. The total of the burials in London (for the said six straggling +years mentioned in the Table A) is 120,170, whereof the medium or sixth +part is 20,028, and exceeds the burials of Paris, as may appear by the +late bills of that city.<br> +<br> +2. The births, for the same time, are 73,683, the medium or sixth +part whereof is 12,280, which is about five-eighth parts of the burials, +and shows that London would in time decrease quite away, were it not +supplied out of the country, where are about five births for four burials, +the proportion of breeders in the country being greater than in the +city.<br> +<br> +3. The burials in Dublin for the said six years were 9,865, the +sixth part or medium whereof is 1,644, which is about the twelfth part +of the London burials, and about a fifth part over. So as the +people of London do hereby seem to be above twelve times as many as +those of Dublin.<br> +<br> +4. The births in the same time at Dublin are 6,157, the sixth +part or medium whereof is 1,026, which is also about five-eighth parts +of the 1,644 burials, which shows that the proportion between burials +and births are alike at London and Dublin, and that the accounts are +kept alike, and consequently are likely to be true, there being no confederacy +for that purpose; which, if they be true, we then say -<br> +<br> +5. That the births are the best way (till the accounts of the +people shall be purposely taken) whereby to judge of the increase and +decrease of people, that of burials being subject to more contingencies +and variety of causes.<br> +<br> +6. If births be as yet the measure of the people, and that the +births (as has been shown) are as five to eight, then eight-fifths of +the births is the number of the burials, where the year was not considerable +for extraordinary sickness or salubrity, and is the rule whereby to +measure the same. As for example, the medium of births in Dublin +was 1,026, the eight-fifths whereof is 1,641, but the real burials were +1,644; so as in the said years they differed little from the 1,641, +which was the standard of health, and consequently the years 1680, 1674, +and 1668 were sickly years, more or less, as they exceeded the said +number, 1,641; and the rest were healthful years, more or less, as they +fell short of the same number. But the city was more or less populous, +as the births differed from the number 1,026, viz., populous in the +years 1680, 1679, 1678, and 1668, for other causes of this difference +in births are very occult and uncertain.<br> +<br> +7. What hath been said of Dublin, serves also for London.<br> +<br> +8. It hath already been observed by the London bills that there +are more males than females. It is to be further noted, that in +these six London bills, also, there is not one instance either in the +births or burials to the contrary.<br> +<br> +9. It hath been formerly observed that in the years wherein most +die fewest are born, and <i>vice versa</i>. The same may be further +observed in males and females, viz., when fewest males are born then +most die: for here the males died as twelve to eleven, which is above +the mean proportion of fourteen to thirteen, but were born but as nineteen +to eighteen, which is below the same.<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Observations upon the Table B.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>1. From the Table B it appears that the medium of the fifteen +years’ burials (being 24,199) is 1,613, whereas the medium of +the other six years in the Table A was 1,644, and that the medium of +the fifteen years’ births (being in all 14,765) is 984, whereas +the medium of the said other six years was 1,026. That is to say, +there were both fewer births and burials in these fifteen years than +in the other six years, which is a probable sign that at a medium there +were fewer people also.<br> +<br> +2. The medium of births for the fifteen years being 984, whereof +eight-fifths (being 1,576) is the standard of health for the said fifteen +years; and the triple of the said 1,576 being 4,728, is the standard +for each of the ternaries of the fifteen years within the said table.<br> +<br> +3. That 2,952, the triple of 984 births, is for each ternary the +standard of people’s increase and decrease from the year 1666 +to 1680 inclusive, viz., the people increased in the second ternary, +and decreased from the same in the third and fourth ternaries, but re-increased +in the fifth ternary beyond any other.<br> +<br> +4. That the last ternary was withal very healthful, the burials +being but 4,624, viz., below 4,728, the standard.<br> +<br> +5. That according to this proportion of increase, the housing +of Dublin have probably increased also.<br> +<br> +<i>Observations upon the Table C.<br> +<br> +</i>1. First, from the Table C it appears, 1. That the housing +of Dublin is such, as that there are not five hearths in each house +one with another, but nearer five than four.<br> +<br> +2. That in St. Warburgh’s parish are near six hearths to +a house. In St. John’s five. In St. Michael’s +above five. In St. Nicholas Within above six. In Christ +Church above seven. In St. James’s and St. Katherine’s, +and in St. Michan’s, not four. In St. Kevin’s about +four.<br> +<br> +3. That in St. James’s, St. Michan’s, St. Bride’s, +St. Warburgh’s, St. Andrew’s, St. Michael’s, and St. +Patrick’s, all the christenings were but 550, and the burials +1,055, viz., near double; and that in the rest of the parishes the christenings +were five, and the burials seven, viz., as 457 to 634. Now whether +the cause of this difference was negligence in accounts, or the greaterness +of the families, &c., is worth inquiring.<br> +<br> +4. It is hard to say in what order (as to greatness) these parishes +ought to stand, some having most families, some most hearths, some most +births, and others most burials. Some parishes exceeding the rest +in two, others in three of the said four particulars, but none in all +four. Wherefore this table ranketh them according to the plurality +of the said four particulars wherein each excelleth the other.<br> +<br> +5. The London observations reckon eight heads in each family, +according to which estimation, there are 32,000 souls in the 4,000 families +of Dublin, which is but half of what most men imagine, of which but +about one sixth part are able to bear arms, besides the royal regiment.<br> +<br> +6. Without the knowledge of the true number of people, as a principle, +the whole scope and use of the keeping bills of births and burials is +impaired; wherefore by laborious conjectures and calculations to deduce +the number of people from the births and burials, may be ingenious, +but very preposterous.<br> +<br> +7. If the number of families in Dublin be about 4,000, then ten +men in one week (at the charge of about £5 surveying eight families +in an hour) may directly, and without algebra, make an account of the +whole people, expressing their several ages, sex, marriages, title, +trade, religion, &c., and those who survey the hearths, or the constables +or the parish clerks (may, if required) do the same ex officio, and +without other charge, by the command of the chief governor, the diocesan, +or the mayor.<br> +<br> +8. The bills of London have since their beginning admitted several +alterations and improvements, and £8 or £10 per annum surcharge, +would make the bills of Dublin to exceed all others, and become an excellent +instrument of Government. To which purpose the forms for weekly, +quarterly, and yearly bills are humbly recommended, viz.<br> +<br> +<pre>TABLE A - YEARLY BILLS OF MORTALITY FOR +A.D. LONDON and DUBLIN. + Burials Births Burials Births +1680 21,053 12,747 1,826 1,096 +1679 21,730 12,288 1,397 1,061 +1678 20,678 12,601 1,401 1,045 +1674 21,201 11,851 2,106 942 +1672 18,230 12,563 1,436 987 +1668 17,278 11,633 1,699 1,026 + 120,170 73,683 9,865 6,157 +The medium +or 6th part +whereof is +part whereof +is 20,028 12,280 1,644 1,026 + +TABLE A - CONTINUED + +A.D. LONDON. + BURIALS. BIRTHS. + Male Female Male Female +1680 11,039 10,044 6,543 6,041 +1679 11,154 10,576 6,247 6,041 +1678 10,681 9,977 6,568 6,033 +1674 11,000 10,196 6,113 5,738 +1672 9,560 8,070 6,443 6,120 +1668 9,111 8,167 6,073 5,566 + 62,545 57,030 37,992 35,697 +The medium +or 6th part +whereof is +part whereof +is 10,424 9,505 6,332 5,949 + +</pre>TABLE B. - DUBLIN.<br> +<br> +<pre>A.D. Burials Births In Ternaries of Years +1666 1,480 952 } +1667 1,642 1,001 } 4,821 2,979 +1668 1,699 1,026 } +1669 1,666 1,000 } +1670 1,713 1,067 } 5,353 3,070 +1671 1,974 1,003 } +1672 1,436 967 } +1673 1,531 933 } 5,073 2,842 +1674 2,106 942 } +1675 1,578 823 } +1676 1,391 952 } 4,328 2,672 +1677 1,359 897 } +1678 1,401 1,045 } +1679 1,397 1,061 } 4,624 3,202 +1680 1,826 1,096 } + 24,199 14,765 24,199 14,765 +The medium } +or 15th }1,613 984 1,613 984 +part whereof } +is } + +TABLE C. + +THE PARISHES OF DUBLIN A.D. A.D., 1670-71-72 + 1671. at a medium + Families Hearths Births Burials +St. Katherine’s 661 2,399 161 290 + and St. James’s +St. Nicholas Without 490 2,348 207 262 +St. Michan’s 656 2,301 127 221 +St. Andrew’s with Donnybrook 483 2,123 108 178 +St. Bridget’s 416 1,989 70 100 +St. John’s 244 1,337 70 138 +St. Warburgh’s 267 1,650 54 103 +St. Audaen’s 216 1,081 53 121 +St. Michael’s 140 793 44 59 +St. Kevin’s 106 433 64 133 +St. Nicholas Within 93 614 28 34 +St. Patrick’s Liberties 52 255 21 44 +Christ Church and Trinity + College, per estimate 26 197 - 1 + 3,850 17,500 1,013 1,696 + +Houses built between 1671 and +1681, per estimate 150 550 + 4,000 18,150 + +A WEEKLY BILL OF MORTALITY FOR THE CITY OF DUBLIN, +Ending the XXX day of XXX 1681. + +PARISHES’ NAMES. +St. Katharine’s and St. James’s +St. Nicholas Without +St. Michan’s +St. Andrew’s with Donnybrook +St. Bridget’s +St. John’s +St. Warburgh’s +St. Audaen’s +St. Michael’s +St. Kevin’s +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick’s Liberties +Christ Church and Trinity College +Totals + +</pre>[The columns for the table are: Births, Males, Females, Burials, +Under 16 years old, Plague, Small Pox, Measles, Spotted Fever. +In the book there are no figures in the table at all. - DP.]<br> +<br> +<br> +<pre>A QUARTERLY BILL OF MORTALITY, +Beginning XXX and ending XXX for the City of DUBLIN +PARISHES’ NAMES. +St. Katharine’s and St. James’s +St. Nicholas Without +St. Michan’s +St. Andrew’s with Donnybrook +St. Bridget’s +St. John’s +St. Warburgh’s +St. Audaen’s +St. Michael’s +St. Kevin’s +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick’s Liberties +Christ Church and Trinity College +Totals + +</pre>[The columns for the table are: Births 1.; Marriages 2.; Buried +under 16 years olds; Buried above 60 years old; Measles, Spotted Fever, +Small Pox, Plague; Consumption, Dropsy, Gout, Stone; Fever, Pleurisy, +Quinsy, Sudden Death; Aged above 70 years old; Infants under 2 years +old; All other Casualties. In the book there are no figures in +the table at all. - DP.]<br> +<br> +<br> +<pre>AN ACCOUNT OF THE PEOPLE OF DUBLIN FOR ONE YEAR, +Ending the 24th of March, 1681. +PARISHES’ NAMES. +St. Katharine’s and St. James’s +St. Nicholas Without +St. Michan’s +St. Andrew’s with Donnybrook +St. Bridget’s +St. John’s +St. Warburgh’s +St. Audaen’s +St. Michael’s +St. Kevin’s +St. Nicholas Within +St. Patrick’s Liberties +Christ Church and Trinity College +Totals + +</pre>[The columns for the table are: Number of person; Males; Females; +Remarried Persons; Persons under 16 years old; Persons above 60 years +old; Protestants of above 16 years old; Papists of above 16 years old; +Of all other religions above 16 years old; Births; Burials; Marriages. +In the book there are no figures in the table at all. - DP.]<br> +<br> +<br> +CASUALTIES AND DISEASES.<br> +<pre>Aged above 70 years Epilepsy and planet +Abortive and still-born Fever and ague +Childbed women Pleurisy +Convulsion Quinsy +Teeth Executed, murdered, +Worms drowned +Gout and sciatica Plague and spotted fever +Stone Griping of the guts +Palsy Scouring, vomiting +Consumption and French bleeding + pox Small pox +Dropsy and tympany Measles +Rickets and livergrown Neither of all the other +Headache and megrim sorts + + + +</pre>A POSTSCRIPT TO THE STATIONER.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +Whereas you complain that these observations make no sufficient bulk, +I could answer you that I wish the bulk of all books were less; but +do nevertheless comply with you in adding what follows, viz.:<br> +<br> +1. That the parishes of Dublin are very unequal; some having in +them above 600 families, and others under thirty.<br> +<br> +2. That thirteen parishes are too few for 4,000 families; the +middling parishes of London containing 120 families; according to which +rate there should be about thirty-three parishes in Dublin.<br> +<br> +3. It is said that there are 84,000 houses or families in London, +which is twenty-one times more than are in Dublin, and yet the births +and burials of London are but twelve times those of Dublin, which shows +that the inhabitants of Dublin are more crowded and straitened in their +housing than those of London; and consequently that to increase the +buildings of Dublin will make that city more conformable to London.<br> +<br> +4. I shall also add some reasons for altering the present forms +of the Dublin bills of mortality, according to what hath been here recommended +- viz.:<br> +<br> +1. We give the distinctions of males and females in the births +only; for that the burials must, at one time or another, be in the same +proportion with the births.<br> +<br> +2. We do in the weekly and quarterly bills propose that notice +be taken in the burials of what numbers die above sixty and seventy, +and what under sixteen, six, and two years old, foreseeing good uses +to be made of that distinction.<br> +<br> +3. We do in the yearly bill reduce the casualties to about twenty-four, +being such as may be discerned by common sense, and without art, conceiving +that more will but perplex and imbroil the account. And in the +quarterly bills we reduce the diseases to three heads - viz., contagious, +acute, and chronical, applying this distinction to parishes, in order +to know how the different situation, soil, and way of living in each +parish doth dispose men to each of the said three species; and in the +weekly bills we take notice not only of the plague, but of the other +contagious diseases in each parish, that strangers and fearful persons +may thereby know how to dispose of themselves.<br> +<br> +4. We mention the number of the people, as the fundamental term +in all our proportions; and without which all the rest will be almost +fruitless.<br> +<br> +5. We mention the number of marriages made in every quarter, and +in every year, as also the proportion which married persons bear to +the whole, expecting in such observations to read the improvement of +the nation.<br> +<br> +6. As for religions, we reduce them to three - viz.: (1) those +who have the Pope of Rome for their head; (2) who are governed by the +laws of their country; (3) those who rely respectively upon their own +private judgments. Now, whether these distinctions should be taken +notice of or not, we do but faintly recommend, seeing many reasons <i>pro +</i>and <i>con </i>for the same; and, therefore, although we have mentioned +it as a matter fit to be considered, yet we humbly leave it to authority.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +TWO ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC,<br> +<i>Concerning the People</i>,<i> Housing</i>,<i> Hospitals</i>,<i> &c.</i>,<i> +of London and Paris.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>TO THE KING’S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +I do presume, in a very small paper, to show your Majesty that your +City of London seems more considerable than the two best cities of the +French monarchy, and for aught I can find, greater than any other of +the universe, which because I can say without flattery, and by such +demonstration as your Majesty can examine, I humbly pray your Majesty +to accept from<br> +<br> +Your Majesty’s<br> +Most humble, loyal, and obedient subject,<br> +WILLIAM PETTY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Tending to prove that London hath more people and housing than the +cities of Paris and Rouen put together</i>,<i> and is also more considerable +in several other respects.<br> +<br> +</i>1. The medium of the burials at London in the three last years +- viz., 1683, 1684, and 1685, wherein there was no extraordinary sickness, +and wherein the christenings do correspond in their ordinary proportions +with the burials and christenings of each year one with another, was +22,337, and the like medium of burials for the three last Paris bills +we could procure - viz., for the years 1682, 1683, and 1684 (whereof +the last as appears by the christenings to have been very sickly), is +19,887.<br> +<br> +2. The city of Bristol in England appears to be by good estimate +of its trade and customs as great as Rouen in France, and the city of +Dublin in Ireland appears to have more chimneys than Bristol, and consequently +more people, and the burials in Dublin were, A.D. 1682 (being a sickly +year) but 2,263.<br> +<br> +3. Now the burials of Paris (being 19,887) being added to the +burials of Dublin (supposed more than at Rouen) being 2,263, makes but +22,150, whereas the burials of London were 187 more, or 22,337, or as +about 6 to 7.<br> +<br> +4. If those who die unnecessarily, and by miscarriage in L’Hôtel +Dieu in Paris (being above 3,000), as hath been elsewhere shown, or +any part thereof, should be subtracted out of the Paris burials aforementioned, +then our assertion will be stronger, and more proportionable to what +follows concerning the housing of those cities, viz.:<br> +<br> +5. There were burnt at London, A.D. 1666, above 13,000 houses, +which being but a fifth part of the whole, the whole number of houses +in the said year were above 65,000; and whereas the ordinary burials +of London have increased between the years 1666 and 1686, above one-third +the total of the houses at London, A.D. 1686, must be about 87,000, +which A.D. 1682, appeared by account to have been 84,000.<br> +<br> +6. Monsieur Moreri, the great French author of the late geographical +dictionaries, who makes Paris the greatest city in the world, doth reckon +but 50,000 houses in the same, and other authors and knowing men much +less; nor are there full 7,000 houses in the city of Dublin, so as if +the 50,000 houses of Paris, and the 7,000 houses in the city of Dublin +were added together, the total is but 57,000 houses, whereas those of +London are 87,000 as aforesaid, or as 6 to 9.<br> +<br> +7. As for the shipping and foreign commerce of London, the common +sense of all men doth judge it to be far greater than that of Paris +and Rouen put together.<br> +<br> +8. As to the wealth and gain accruing to the inhabitants of London +and Paris by law-suits (or <i>La chicane</i>) I only say that the courts +of London extend to all England and Wales, and affect seven millions +of people, whereas those of Paris do not extend near so far. Moreover, +there is no palpable conspicuous argument at Paris for the number and +wealth of lawyers like the buildings and chambers in the two Temples, +Lincoln’s Inn, Gray’s Inn, Doctors’ Commons, and the +seven other inns in which are chimneys, which are to be seen at London, +besides many lodgings, halls, and offices, relating to the same.<br> +<br> +9. As to the plentiful and easy living of the people we say,<br> +<br> +(a.) That the people of Paris to those of London, being as about 6 to +7, and the housing of the same as about 6 to 9, we infer that the people +do not live at London so close and crowded as at Paris, but can afford +themselves more room and liberty.<br> +<br> +(b.) That at London the hospitals are better and more desirable than +those of Paris, for that in the best at Paris there die two out of fifteen, +whereas at London there die out of the worst scarce 2 out of 16, and +yet but a fiftieth part of the whole die out of the hospitals at London, +and two-fifths, or twenty times that proportion die out of the Paris +hospitals which are of the same kind; that is to say, the number of +those at London, who choose to lie sick in hospitals rather than in +their own houses, are to the like people of Paris as one to twenty; +which shows the greater poverty or want of means in the people of Paris +than those of London.<br> +<br> +(c.) We infer from the premises, viz., the dying scarce two of sixteen +out of the London hospitals, and about two of fifteen in the best of +Paris, to say nothing of L’Hôtel Dieu, that either the physicians +and chirurgeons of London are better than those of Paris, or that the +air of London is more wholesome.<br> +<br> +10. As for the other great cities of the world, if Paris were +the greatest we need say no more in behalf of London. As for Pekin +in China, we have no account fit to reason upon; nor is there anything +in the description of the two late voyages of the Chinese emperor from +that city into East and West Tartary, in the years 1682 and 1683, which +can make us recant what we have said concerning London. As for +Delhi and Agra, belonging to the Mogul, we find nothing against our +position, but much to show the vast numbers which attend that emperor +in his business and pleasures.<br> +<br> +11. We shall conclude with Constantinople and Grand Cairo; as +for Constantinople it hath been said by one who endeavoured to show +the greatness of that city, and the greatness of the plague which raged +in it, that there died 1,500 per diem, without other circumstances; +to which we answer, that in the year 1665 there died in London 1,200 +per diem, and it hath been well proved that the Plague of London never +carried away above one-fifth of the people, whereas it is commonly believed +that in Constantinople, and other eastern cities, and even in Italy +and Spain, that the plague takes away two-fifths, one half, or more; +wherefore where 1,200 is but one-fifth of the people it is probable +that the number was greater, than where 1,500 was two-fifths or one +half, &c.<br> +<br> +12. As for Grand Cairo it is reported, that 73,000 died in ten +weeks, or 1,000 per diem, where note, that at Grand Cairo the plague +comes and goes away suddenly, and that the plague takes away two or +three-fifths parts of the people as aforesaid; so as 73,000 was probably +the number of those that died of the plague in one whole year at Grand +Cairo, whereas at London, A.D. 1665, 97,000 were brought to account +to have died in that year. Wherefore it is certain, that that +city wherein 97,000 was but one-fifth of the people, the number was +greater than where 73,000 was two-fifths or the half.<br> +<br> +We therefore conclude, that London hath more people, housing, shipping, +and wealth, than Paris and Rouen put together; and for aught yet appears, +is more considerable than any other city in the universe, which was +propounded to be proved.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +AN ESSAY IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Tending to prove that in the hospital called L’Hôtel +Dieu at Paris, there die above 3,000 per annum by reason of ill accommodation.<br> +<br> +</i>1. It appears that A.D. 1678 there entered into the Hospital +of La Charité 2,647 souls, of which there died there within the +said year 338, which is above an eighth part of the said 2,647; and +that in the same year there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 21,491, +and that there died out of that number 5,630, which is above one quarter, +so as about half the said 5,630, being 2,815, seem to have died for +want of as good usage and accommodation as might have been had at La +Charité.<br> +<br> +2. Moreover, in the year 1679 there entered into La Charité +3,118, of which there died 452, which is above a seventh part, and in +the same year there entered into L’Hôtel Dieu 28,635, of +which there died 8,397; and in both the said years 1678 and 1679 (being +very different in their degrees of mortality) there entered into L’Hôtel +Dieu 28,635 and 2l,491 - in all 50,126, the medium whereof is 25,063; +and there died out of the same in the said two years, 5,630 and 8,397 +- in all 14,027, the medium whereof is 7,013.<br> +<br> +3. There entered in the said years into La Charité 2,647 +and 3,118, in all 5,765, the medium whereof is 2,882, whereof there +died 338 and 452, in all 790, the medium whereof is 395.<br> +<br> +4. Now, if there died out of L’Hôtel Dieu 7,013 per +annum, and that the proportion of those that died out of L’Hôtel +Dieu is double to those that died out of La Charité (as by the +above numbers it appears to be near thereabouts), then it follows that +half the said numbers of 7,013, being 3,506, did not die by natural +necessity, but by the evil administration of that hospital.<br> +<br> +5. This conclusion seemed at the first sight very strange, and +rather to be some mistake or chance than a solid and real truth; but +considering the same matter as it appeared at London, we were more reconciled +to the belief of it, viz.:-<br> +<br> +(a.) In the Hospital of St. Bartholomew in London, there was sent out +and cured in the year 1685, 1,764 persons, and there died out of the +said hospital 252. Moreover, there were sent out and cured out +of St. Thomas’s Hospital 1,523, and buried, 209 - that is to say, +there were cured in both hospitals 3,287, and buried out of both hospitals +461, and consequently cured and buried 3,748, of which number the 461 +buried is less than an eighth part; whereas at La Charité the +part that died was more than an eighth part; which shows that out of +the most poor and wretched hospitals of London there died fewer in proportion +than out of the best in Paris.<br> +<br> +(b.) Furthermore, it hath been above shown that there died out of La +Charité at a medium 395 per annum, and 141 out of Les Incurables, +making in all 536; and that out of St. Bartholomew’s and St. Thomas’s +Hospitals, London, there died at a medium but 461, of which Les Incurables +are part; which shows that although there be more people in London than +in Paris, yet there went at London not so many people to hospitals as +there did at Paris, although the poorest hospitals at London were better +than the best at Paris; which shows that the poorest people at London +have better accommodation in their own houses than the best hospital +of Paris affordeth.<br> +<br> +6. Having proved that there die about 3,506 persons at Paris unnecessarily, +to the damage of France, we come next to compute the value of the said +damage, and of the remedy thereof, as follows, viz., the value of the +said 3,506 at 60 livres sterling per head, being about the value of +Argier slaves (which is less than the intrinsic value of people at Paris), +the whole loss of the subjects of France in that hospital seems to be +60 times 3,506 livres sterling per annum, viz., 210,360 livres sterling, +equivalent to about 2,524,320 French livres.<br> +<br> +7. It hath appeared that there came into L’Hôtel Dieu +at a medium 25,063 per annum, or 2,089 <i>per mensem</i>, and that the +whole stock of what remained in the precedent months is at a medium +about 2,108 (as may appear by the third line of the Table No. 5, which +shall be shortly published), viz., the medium of months is 2,410 for +the sickly year 1679, whereunto 1,806 being added as the medium of months +for the year 1678, makes 4,216, the medium whereof is the 2,108 above +mentioned; which number being added to the 2,089 which entered each +month, makes 4,197 for the number of sick which are supposed to be always +in L’Hôtel Dieu one time with another.<br> +<br> +8. Now, if 60 French livres per annum for each of the said 4,197 +sick persons were added to the present ordinary expense of that hospital +(amounting to an addition of 251,820 livres), it seems that so many +lives might be saved as are worth above ten times that sum, and this +by doing a manifest deed of charity to mankind.<br> +<br> +<i>Memorandum</i>. - That A.D. 1685, the burials of London were 23,222, +and those of Amsterdam 6,245; from whence, and the difference of air, +it is probable that the people of London are quadruple to those of Amsterdam.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +OBSERVATIONS UPON THE CITIES OF LONDON AND ROME<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +1. That before the year 1630 the christenings at London exceeded +the burials of the same, but about the year 1655 they were scarce half; +and now about two-thirds.<br> +<br> +2. Before the restoration of monarchy in England, A.D. 1660, the +people of Paris were more than those of London and Dublin put together, +whereas now, the people of London are more than those of Paris and Rome, +or of Paris and Rouen.<br> +<br> +3. A.D. 1665 one fifth part of the then people of London, or 97,000, +died of the plague, and in the next year, 1666, 13,000 houses, or one +fifth part of all the housing of London, were burnt also.<br> +<br> +4. At the birth of Christ old Rome was the greatest city of the +world, and London the greatest at the coronation of King James II., +and near six times as great as the present Rome, wherein are 119,000 +souls besides Jews.<br> +<br> +5. In the years of King Charles II.’s death, and King James +II.’s coronation (which were neither of them remarkable for extraordinary +sickliness or healthfulness) the burials did wonderfully agree, viz., +A.D. 1684, they were 23,202, and A.D. 1685, they were 23,222, the medium +whereof is 23,212. And the christenings did very wonderfully agree +also, having been A.D. 1684, 14,702, and A.D. 1685, 14,732, the medium +whereof is 14,716, which consistence was never seen before, the said +number of 23,212 burials making the people of London to be 696,360, +at the rate of one dying per annum out of 30.<br> +<br> +6. Since the great Fire of London, A.D. 1666, about 7 parts of +15 of the present vast city hath been new built, and is with its people +increased near one half, and become equal to Paris and Rome put together, +the one being the seat of the great French Monarchy, and the other of +the Papacy.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +FIVE ESSAYS IN POLITICAL ARITHMETIC<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +I. Objections from the city of Ray in Persia, and from Monsier +Auzout, against two former essays, answered, and that London hath as +many people as Paris, Rome, and Rouen put together.<br> +<br> +II. A comparison between London and Paris in 14 particulars.<br> +<br> +III. Proofs that at London, within its 134 parishes named in the +bills of mortality, there live about 696,000 people.<br> +<br> +IV. An estimate of the people in London, Paris, Amsterdam, Venice, +Rome, Dublin, Bristol, and Rouen, with several observations upon the +same.<br> +<br> +V. Concerning Holland and the rest of the Seven United Provinces.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +TO THE KING’S MOST EXCELLENT MAJESTY<br> +<br> +Sir,<br> +<br> +Your Majesty having graciously accepted my two late essays, about the +cities and hospitals of London and Paris, as also my observations on +Rome and Rouen; I do (after six months’ waiting for what may be +said against my several doctrines by the able men of Europe) humbly +present your Majesty with a few other papers upon the same subject, +to strengthen, explain, and enlarge the former; hoping by such real +arguments, better to praise and magnify your Majesty, than by any other +the most specious words and eulogies that can be imagined by<br> +<br> +Your Majesty’s<br> +Most humble, loyal<br> +And obedient subject,<br> +WILLIAM PETTY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +THE FIRST ESSAY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +It could not be expected that an assertion of London’s being bigger +than Paris and Rouen, or than Paris and Rome put together, and bigger +than any city of the world, should escape uncontradicted; and ’tis +also expected that I (if continuing in the same persuasion), should +make some reply to those contradictions. In order whereunto,<br> +<br> +I begin with the ingenious author of the “<i>République +des Lettres</i>,” who saith that Rey in Persia is far bigger than +London, for that in the sixth century of Christianity (I suppose, A.D. +550 the middle of that century), it had 15,000, or rather 44,000 mosques +or Mahometan temples; to which I reply, that I hope this objector is +but in jest, for that Mahomet was not born till about the year 570, +and had no mosques till about 50 years after.<br> +<br> +In the next place I reply to the excellent Monsieur Auzout’s “Letters +from Rome,” who is content that London, Westminster, and Southwark +may have as many people as Paris and its suburbs; and but faintly denieth, +that all the housing within the bills may have almost as many people +as Paris and Rouen, but saith that several parishes inserted into these +bills are distant from, and not contiguous with London, and that Grant +so understood it.<br> +<br> +To which (as his main if not his only objection) we answer: - (l) That +the London bills appear in Grant’s book to have been always, since +the year 1636; as they now are; (2) That about fifty years since, three +or four parishes, formerly somewhat distant, were joined by interposed +buildings to the bulk of the city, and therefore then inserted into +the bills; (3) That since fifty years the whole buildings being more +than double have perfected that union, so as there is no house within +the said bills from which one may not call to some other house; (4) +All this is confirmed by authority of the king and city, and the custom +of fifty years; (5) That there are but three parishes under any colour +of this exception which are scarce one-fifty-second part of the whole.<br> +<br> +Upon the whole matter, upon sight of Monsieur Auzout’s large letter, +dated the 19th of November, from Rome, I made remarks upon every paragraph +thereof, but suppressing it (because it looked like a war against a +worthy person with whom I intended none, whereas, in truth, it was but +a reconciling explication of some doubts) I have chosen the shorter +and softer way of answering Monsieur Auzout as followeth, viz.:-<br> +<br> +Concerning the number of people in London, as also in Paris, Rouen, +and Rome, viz.:-<br> +<br> +Monsieur Auzout allegeth an authentic account that there are 23,223 +houses in Paris, wherein do live about eighty thousand families, and +therefore supposing three and a half families to live in every of the +said houses, one with another, the number of families will be 81,280; +and Monsier Auzout also allowing six heads to each family, the utmost +number of people in Paris, according to that opinion, will be 487,680.<br> +<br> +The medium of the Paris burials was not denied by Monsier Auzout to +be 19,887, nor that there died 3,506 unnecessarily out of the L’Hôtel +Dieu; wherefore deducting the said last number out of the former, the +net standard for burials at Paris will be 16,381, so, as the number +of people there, allowing but one to die out of thirty (which is more +advantageous to Paris than Monsieur Auzout’s opinion of one to +die out of twenty-five) the number of people at Paris will be 491,430 +more than by Monsier Auzout’s own last-mentioned account 491,430.<br> +<br> +And the medium of the said two Paris accounts is 488,055.<br> +<br> +The medium of the London burials is really 23,212, which, multiplied +by thirty (as hath been done for Paris), the number of the people there +will be 696,360.<br> +<br> +The number of houses at London appears by the register to be 105,315, +whereunto adding one-tenth part of the same, or 10,315, as the least +number of double families that can be supposed in London, the total +of families will be 115,840, and allowing six heads for each family, +as was done for Paris, the total of the people at London will be 695,076.<br> +<br> +The medium of the two last London accounts is 695,718.<br> +<br> +So, as the people of Paris, according to the above account, is 488,055.<br> +Of Rouen, according to Monsieur Auzout’s utmost demands 80,000.<br> +Of Rome, according to his own report thereof in a former letter 125,000.<br> +Total 693,055.<br> +<br> +So as there are more people at London than at Paris, Rouen, and Rome +by 2,663.<br> +<br> +Memorandum. - That the parishes of Islington, Newington, and Hackney, +for which only there is any colour of non-contiguity, is not one-fifty-second +part of what is contained in the bills of mortality, and consequently +London, without the said three parishes, hath more people than Paris +and Rouen put together, by 114,284.<br> +<br> +Which number of 114,284 is probably more people than any other city +of France contains.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +THE SECOND ESSAY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +As for other comparisons of London with Paris, we farther repeat and +enlarge what hath been formerly said upon those matters, as followeth, +viz.:-<br> +<br> +1. That forty per cent. die out of the hospitals at Paris where +so many die unnecessarily, and scarce one-twentieth of that proportion +out of the hospitals of London, which have been shown to be better than +the best of Paris.<br> +<br> +2. That at Paris 81,280 kitchens are within less than 24,000 street-doors, +which makes less cleanly and convenient way of living than at London.<br> +<br> +3. Where the number of christenings are near unto, or exceed the +burials, the people are poorer, having few servants and little equipage.<br> +<br> +4. The river Thames is more pleasant and navigable than the Seine, +and its waters better and more wholesome; and the bridge of London is +the most considerable of all Europe.<br> +<br> +5. The shipping and foreign trade of London is incomparably greater +than that at Paris and Rouen.<br> +<br> +6. The lawyers’ chambers at London have 2,772 chimnies in +them, and are worth £140,000 sterling, or 3,000,000 of French +livres, besides the dwellings of their families elsewhere.<br> +<br> +7. The air is more wholesome, for that at London scarce two of +sixteen die out of the worst hospitals, but at Paris above two of fifteen +out of the best. Moreover the burials of Paris are one-fifth part +above and below the medium, but at London not above one-twelfth, so +as the intemperies of the air at Paris is far greater than at London.<br> +<br> +8. The fuel cheaper, and lies in less room, the coals being a +wholesome sulphurous bitumen.<br> +<br> +9. All the most necessary sorts of victuals, and of fish, are +cheaper, and drinks of all sorts in greater variety and plenty.<br> +<br> +10. The churches of London we leave to be judged by thinking that +nothing at Paris is so great as St. Paul’s was, and is like to +be, nor so beautiful as Henry the Seventh’s chapel.<br> +<br> +11. On the other hand, it is probable, that there is more money +in Paris than London, if the public revenue (grossly speaking, quadruple +to that of England) be lodged there.<br> +<br> +12. Paris hath not been for these last fifty years so much infested +with the plague as London; now that at London the plague (which between +the years 1591 and 1666 made five returns, viz., every fifteen years, +at a medium, and at each time carried away one-fifth of the people) +hath not been known for the 21 years last past, and there is a visible +way by God’s ordinary blessing to lessen the same by two-thirds +when it next appeareth.<br> +<br> +13. As to the ground upon which Paris stands in respect of London, +we say, that if there be five stories or floors of housing at Paris, +for four at London, or in that proportion, then the 82,000 families +of Paris stand upon the equivalent of 65,000 London housteds, and if +there be 115,000 families at London, and but 82,000 at Paris, then the +proportion of the London ground to that of Paris is as 115 to sixty-five, +or as twenty-three to thirteen.<br> +<br> +14. Moreover Paris is said to be an oval of three English miles +long and two and a half broad, the area whereof contains but five and +a half square miles; but London is seven miles long, and one and a quarter +broad at a medium, which makes an area of near nine square miles, which +proportion of five and half to nine differs little from that of thirteen +to twenty-three.<br> +<br> +15. Memorandum, that in Nero’s time, as Monsieur Chivreau +reporteth, there died 300,000 people of the plague in old Rome; now +if there died three of ten then and there, being a hotter country, as +there dies two of ten at London, the number of people at that time, +was but a million, whereas at London they are now about 700,000. +Moreover the ground within the walls of old Rome was a circle but of +three miles diameter, whose area is about seven square miles, and the +suburbs scarce as much more, in all about thirteen square miles, whereas +the built ground at London is about nine square miles as aforesaid; +which two sorts of proportions agree with each other, and consequently +old Rome seems but to have been half as big again as the present London, +which we offer to antiquaries.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +THE THIRD ESSAY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +Proofs that the number of people in the 134 parishes of the London bills +of mortality, without reference to other cities, is about 696,000, viz. +-<br> +<br> +I know but three ways of finding the same.<br> +<br> +1. By the houses, and families, and heads living in each.<br> +<br> +2. By the number of burials in healthful times, and by the proportion +of those that live, to those that die.<br> +<br> +3. By the number of those who die of the plague in pestilential +years, in proportion to those that escape.<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>The First Way.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>To know the number of houses, I used three methods, viz. -<br> +<br> +1. The number of houses which were burnt A.D. 1666, which by authentic +report was 13,200; next what proportion the people who died out of those +houses, bore to the whole; which I find A.D. 1686, to be but one seventh +part, but A.D. 1666 to be almost one-fifth, from whence I infer the +whole housing of London A.D. 1666 to have been 66,000, then finding +the burials A.D. 1666 to be to those of 1686 as 3 to 4,I pitch upon +88,000 to be the number of housing A.D. 1686.<br> +<br> +2. Those who have been employed in making the general map of London, +set forth in the year 1682, told me that in that year they had found +above 84,000 houses to be in London, wherefore A.D. 1686, or in four +years more, there might be one-tenth or 8,400 houses more (London doubling +in forty years) so as the whole, A.D. 1686 might be 92,400.<br> +<br> +3. I found that A.D. 1685, there were 29,325 hearths in Dublin, +and 6,400 houses, and in London 388 thousand hearths, whereby there +must have been at that rate 87,000 houses in London. Moreover +I found that in Bristol there were in the same year 16,752 hearth; and +5,307 houses, and in London 388,000 hearths as aforesaid; at which rate +there must have been 123,000 houses in London, and at a medium between +Dublin and Bristol proportions 105,000 houses.<br> +<br> +Lastly, by certificate from the hearth office, I find the houses within +the bills of mortality to be 105,315.<br> +<br> +Having thus found the houses, I proceed next to the number of families +in them, and first I thought that if there were three or four families +or kitchens in every house of Paris, there might be two families in +one-tenth of the housing of London; unto which supposition, the common +opinion of several friends doth concur with my own conjectures.<br> +<br> +As to the number of heads in each family, I stick to Grant’s observation +in page --- of his fifth edition, that in tradesmen of London’s +families there be eight heads one with another, in families of higher +ranks, above ten, and in the poorest near live, according to which proportions, +I had upon another occasion pitched the medium of heads in all the families +of England to be six and one-third, but quitting the fraction in this +case, I agree with Monsieur Auzout for six.<br> +<br> +To conclude, the houses of London being 105,315 and the addition of +double families 10,531 more, in all 115,846; I multiplied the same by +six, which produced 695,076 for the number of the people.<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>The Second Way.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>I found that the years 1684 and 1685, being next each other, and +both healthful, did wonderfully agree in their burials, viz., 1684 they +were 23,202, and A.D. 1685 23,222, the medium whereof is 23,212; moreover +that the christenings 1684 were 14,702, and those A.D. 1685 were 14,730, +wherefore I multiplied the medium of burials 23,212 by 30, supposing +that one dies out of 30 at London, which made the number of people 696,360 +souls.<br> +<br> +Now to prove that one dies out of 30 at London or thereabouts, I say +-<br> +<br> +1. That Grant in the --- page of his fifth edition, affirmeth +from observation, that 3 died of 88 per annum which is near the same +proportion.<br> +<br> +2. I found that out of healthful places, and out of adult persons, +there dies much fewer, as but one out of 50 among our parliament men, +and that the kings of England having reigned 24 years one with another, +probably lived above 30 years each.<br> +<br> +3. Grant, page --- hath shown that but about one of 20 die per +annum out of young children under 10 years old, and Monsieur Auzout +thinks that but 1 of 40 die at Rome, out of the greater proportion of +adult persons there, wherefore we still stick as a medium to the number +30.<br> +<br> +4. In nine country parishes lying in several parts of England, +I find that but one of 37 hath died per annum, or 311 out of 11,507, +wherefore till I see another round number, grounded upon many observations, +nearer than 30, I hope to have done pretty well in multiplying our burials +by 30 to find the number of the people, the product being 696,360, and +what we find by the families they are 695,076, as aforesaid.<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>The Third Way.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>It was proved by Grant, that one-fifth of the people died of the +plague, but A.D. 1665 there died of the plague near 98,000 persons, +the quintuple whereof is 490,000 as the number of people in the year +1665, whereunto adding above one-third, as the increase between 1665 +and 1686, the total is 653,000, agreeing well enough with the other +two computations above mentioned.<br> +<br> +Wherefore let the proportion of 1 to 30 continue till a better be put +in its place.<br> +<br> +<i>Memorandum</i>. That two or three hundred new houses would +make a contiguity of two or three other great parishes, with the 134 +already mentioned in the bills of mortality: and that an oval wall of +about twenty miles in compass would enclose the same, and all the shipping +at Deptford and Blackwall, and would also fence in 20,000 acres of land, +and lay the foundation or designation of several vast advantages to +the owners, and inhabitants of that ground, as also to the whole nation +and government.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +THE FOURTH ESSAY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Concerning the proportions of People in the eight eminent Cities +of Christendom undernamed, </i>viz.:-<br> +<br> +1. We have by the number of burials in healthful years, and by +the proportion of the living to those who die yearly, as also by the +number of houses and families within the 134 parishes called London, +and the estimate of the heads in each, pitched upon the number of people +in that city to be at a medium 695,718.<br> +<br> +2. We have, by allowing that at Paris above 80,000 families, viz., +81,280, do live in 23,223 houses, 32 palaces, and 38 colleges, or that +there are 81,280 kitchens within less than 24,000 street doors; as also +by allowing 30 heads for every one that died necessarily there; we have +pitched upon the number of people there at a medium to be 488,055, nor +have we restrained them to 300,000, by allowing with Monsieur Auzout +6 heads for each of Moreri’s 50,000 houses or families.<br> +<br> +3. To Amsterdam we allow 187,350 souls, viz., 30 times the number +of their burials, which were 6,245 in the year 1685.<br> +<br> +4. To Venice we allow 134,000 souls, as found there in a special +account taken by authority, about ten years since, when the city abounded +with such as returned from Candia, then surrendered to the Turks.<br> +<br> +5. To Rome we allow 119,000 Christians, and 6,000 Jews, in all +125,000 souls, according to an account sent thither of the same by Monsieur +Auzout.<br> +<br> +6. To Dublin we allow (as to Amsterdam) 30 times its burials, +the medium whereof for the last two years is 2,303, viz., 69,090 souls.<br> +<br> +7. As to Bristol, we say that if the 6,400 houses of Dublin give +69,090 people, that the 5,307 houses of Bristol must give above 56,000 +people. Moreover, if the 29,325 hearths of Dublin give 69,090 +people, the 16,752 hearths of Bristol must give about 40,000; but the +medium of 56,000 and 40,000 is 48,000.<br> +<br> +8. As for Rouen, we have no help, but Monsieur Auzout’s +fancy of 80,000 souls to be in that city, and the conjecture of knowing +men that Rouen is between the one-seventh and one-eighth part of Paris, +and also that it is by a third bigger than Bristol; by all which, we +estimate, till farther light, that Rouen hath at most but 66,000 people +in it.<br> +<br> +Now it may be wondered why we mentioned Rouen at all, having had so +little knowledge of it; whereunto we answer, that we did not think it +just to compare London with Paris, as to shipping and foreign trade, +without adding Rouen thereunto, Rouen being to Paris as that part of +London which is below the bridge, is to what is above it.<br> +<br> +All which we heartily submit to the correction of the curious and candid, +in the meantime observing according to the gross numbers under-mentioned.<br> +<br> +<br> +<pre>London 696,000 +Paris 488,000 +Amsterdam 187,000 +Venice 134,000 +Rome 125,000 +Dublin 69,000 +Bristol 48,000 +Rouen 66,000 + + +</pre><i>Observations on the said Eight Cities.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i><pre>1. That the people of Paris being 488,000 + Rome 125,000 + Rouen 66,000 + do make in all but 679,000 + +</pre>or 17,000 less than the 696,000 of London alone.<br> +<br> +2. That the people of the two English cities and emporiums - viz., +of London, 696,000, and Bristol, 48,000 - do make 744,000, or more than<br> +<br> +<pre>In Paris 488,000 +Amsterdam 187,090 +Rouen 66,000 +Being in all 741,000 + +</pre>3. That the same two English cities seem equivalent<br> +<br> +<pre>To Paris, which hath 488,000 souls. + Rouen 66,000 + Lyons 100,000 + Toulouse 90,000 +In all 744,000 + +</pre>If there be any error in these conjectures concerning these cities +of France, we hope they will be mended by those whom we hear to be now +at work upon that matter.<br> +<br> +4. That the King of England’s three cities, viz.<br> +<br> +<pre>London 696,000 { Paris 488,000 +Dublin 69,000 exceed { Amsterdam 187,000 +Bristol 48,000 { Venice 134,000 +In all 813,000 Being but 809,000 + +</pre>5. That of the four great emporiums, London, Amsterdam, +Venice, and Rouen, London alone is near double to the other three, viz., +above 7 to 4.<br> +<br> +<pre>Amsterdam 187,000 } +Venice 134,000 } 387,000 +Rouen 66,000 } 2 + 774,000 London 696,000 + +</pre>6. That London, for aught appears, is the greatest and most +considerable city of the world, but manifestly the greatest emporium.<br> +<br> +When these assertions have passed the examen of the critics, we shall +make another essay, showing how to apply those truths to the honour +and profit of the King and Kingdom of England.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +THE FIFTH ESSAY.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Concerning Holland and the rest of the United Provinces.<br> +<br> +</i>Since the close of this paper, it hath been objected from Holland, +that what hath been said of the number of houses and people in London +is not like to be true; for that if it were, then London would be the +two-thirds of the whole Province of Holland. To which is answered, +that London is the two-thirds of all Holland, and more, that province +having not 1,044,000 inhabitants (whereof 696,000 is the two-thirds), +nor above 800,000, as we have credibly and often heard. For suppose +Amsterdam hath - as we have elsewhere noted - 187,000, the seven next +great cities at 30,000 each, one with another, 210,000, the ten next +at 15,000 each 150,000, the ten smallest at 6,000 each 60,000 - in all, +the twenty-eight walled cities and towns of Holland 607,000; in the +dorps and villages 193,000, which is about one head for every four acres +of land; whereas in England there is eight acres for every head, without +the cities and market-towns.<br> +<br> +Now, suppose London, having 116,000 families, should have seven heads +in each - the medium between MM. Auzout’s and Grant’s reckonings +- the total of the people would be 812,000; or if we reckon that there +dies one out of thirty-four - the medium between thirty and thirty-seven +above mentioned - the total of the people would be thirty-four times +23,212, viz., 789,208, the medium between which number and the above +812,000 is 800,604, somewhat exceeding 800,000, the supposed number +of Holland.<br> +<br> +Furthermore, I say that upon former searches into the peopling of the +world, I never found that in any country - not in China itself - there +was more than one man to every English acre of land: many territories +passing for well-peopled where there is but one man for ten such acres. +I found by measuring Holland and West Frisia <i>(alias </i>North Holland) +upon the best maps, that it contained but as many such acres as London +doth of people, viz., about 696,000 acres. I therefore venture +to pronounce (till better informed) that the people of London are as +many as those of Holland, or at least above two-thirds of the same, +which is enough to disable the objection above mentioned; nor is there +any need to strain up London from 696,000 to 800,000, though competent +reasons have been given to that purpose, and though the author of the +excellent map of London, set forth A.D. 1682, reckoned the people thereof +(as by the said map appears) to be 1,200,000, even when he thought the +houses of the same to be but 85,000.<br> +<br> +The worthy person who makes this objection in the same letter also saith +-<br> +<br> +1. That the province of Holland hath as many people as the other +six united provinces together, and as the whole kingdom of England, +and double to the city of Paris and its suburbs; that is to say, 2,000,000 +souls. 2. He says that in London and Amsterdam, and other +trading cities, there are ten heads to every family, and that in Amsterdam +there are not 22,000 families. 3. He excepteth against the +register alleged by Monsieur Auzout, which makes 23,223 houses and above +80,000 families to be in Paris; as also against the register alleged +by Petty, making 105,315 houses to be in London, with a tenth part of +the same to be of families more than houses; and probably will except +against the register of 1,163 houses to be in all England, that number +giving, at six and one-third heads to each family, about 7,000,000 people, +upon all which we remark as follows, viz.:-<br> +<br> +1. That if Paris doth contain but 488,000 souls, that then all +Holland containeth but the double of that number, or 976,000, wherefore +London, containing 696,000 souls, hath above two-thirds of all Holland +by 46,000.<br> +<br> +2. If Paris containeth half as many people as there are in all +England, it must contain 3,500,000 souls, or above seven times 488,000; +and because there do not die 20,000 per annum out of Paris, there must +die but one out of 175; whereas Monsieur Auzout thinks that there dies +one out of 25, and there must live 149 heads in every house of Paris +mentioned in the register, but there must be scarce two heads in every +house of England, all which we think fit to be reconsidered.<br> +<br> +I must, as an Englishman, take notice of one point more, which is, that +these assertions do reflect upon the empire of England, for that it +is said that England hath but 2,000,000 inhabitants, and it might as +well have been added, that Scotland and Ireland, with the Islands of +Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, have but two-fifths of the same number, or +800,000 more, or that all the King of England’s subjects in Europe +are but 2,800,000 souls, whereas he saith that the subjects of the seven +united provinces are 4,000,000. To which we answer that the subjects +of the said seven provinces are, by this objector’s own showing, +but the quadruple of Paris, or 1,932,000 souls, Paris containing but +488,000, as afore hath been proved, and we do here affirm that England +hath 7,000,000 people, and that Scotland, Ireland, with the Islands +of Man, Jersey, and Guernsey, hath two-fifths of the said number, or +2,800,000 more, in all 9,800,000; whereas by the objector’s doctrine, +if the seven provinces have 1,932,000 people, the King of England’s +territories should have but seven-tenths of the same number, viz., 1,351,000, +whereas we say 9,800,000, as aforesaid, which difference is so gross +as that it deserves to be thus reflected upon.<br> +<br> +To conclude, we expect from the concerned critics of the world that +they would prove -<br> +<br> +1. That Holland, and West Frisia, and the twenty-eight towns and +cities thereof, hath more people than London alone.<br> +<br> +2. That any three of the best cities of France, any two of all +Christendom, or any one of the world, hath the same, or better housing, +and more foreign trade than London, even in the year that King James +the Second came to the empire thereof.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +OF THE PEOPLE OF ENGLAND.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Founded upon the Calculations of Gregory King, Lancaster Herald, +and forming part of </i>“<i>An Essay upon the Probable Methods +of making a People gainers in the Balance of Trade</i>.” +<i>Published in 1699.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>The writer of these papers has seen the natural and political observations +and conclusions upon the state and condition of England by Gregory King, +Esq., Lancaster Herald, in manuscript. The calculations therein +contained are very accurate, and more perhaps to be relied upon than +anything that has been ever done of the like kind. This skilful +and laborious gentleman has taken the right course to form his several +schemes about the numbers of the people, for besides many different +ways of working, he has very carefully inspected the poll-books, and +the distinctions made by those acts, and the produce in many of the +respective polls, going everywhere by reasonable and discreet mediums: +besides which pains, he has made observations of the very facts in particular +towns and places, from which he has been able to judge and conclude +more safely of others, so that he seems to have looked further into +this mystery than any other person.<br> +<br> +With his permission, we shall offer to the public such of his computations +as may be of use, and enlighten in the matter before us.<br> +<br> +He lays down that if the first peopling of England was by a colony or +colonies, consisting of a number between 100 and 1,000 people (which +seems probable), such colony or colonies might be brought over between +the year of the world 2400 and 2600, viz., about 800 or 900 years after +the Flood, and 1,400 or 1,500 years before the birth of Christ, at which +time the world might have about 1,000,000 families, and 4,000,000 or +5,000,000 people.<br> +<br> +From which hypothesis it will follow by an orderly series of increase +-<br> +<br> +That when the Romans invaded England fifty-three years before Christ’s +time, the kingdom might have about 360,000 people, and at Christ’s +birth about 400,000.<br> +<br> +That at the Norman Conquest, A.D. 1066, the kingdom might contain somewhat +above 2,000,000.<br> +<br> +That A.D. 1260, or about 200 years after the Norman Conquest, it might +contain about 2,750,000 people, or half the present number: so that +the people of England may have doubled in about 435 years last past.<br> +<br> +That in all probability the next doubling will be in about 600 years +to come, viz., by the year 2300, at which time it may have about 11,000,000 +people, and the kingdom containing about 39,000,000 of acres, there +will be then about three acres and a half per head.<br> +<br> +That the increase of the kingdom for every hundred years of the last +preceding term of doubling, and the subsequent term of doubling, may +have been and in all probability may be, according to the following +scheme:-<br> +<br> +<br> +<pre>Anno Number of Increase every +Domini. people. hundred years. +1300 2,800,000 +1400 3,300,000 440,000. +1500 3,840,000 540,000. +1600 4,620,000 780,000. +1700 5,500,000 880,000. +1800 6,420,000 920,000. +1900 7,350,000 930,000. +2000 8,280,000 930,000. +2100 9,205,000 925,000. +2200 10,115,000 910,000. +2300 11,000,000 885,000. + +</pre>Whereby it may appear that the increase of the kingdom being 880,000 +people in the last hundred years, and 920,000 in the next succeeding +hundred years, the annual increase at this time may be about 9,000 souls +per annum.<br> +<br> +<pre>But whereas the yearly births of the + kingdom are about 1 in 28.95, or 190,000 souls. +And the yearly burials 1 in 32.35 or 170,000 souls. +Whereby the yearly increase would be 20,000 souls. + +It is to be noted - Per ann. + +1. That the allowance for + plagues and great mortalities + may come to at a medium 4,000 +2. Foreign or civil wars at a + medium 3,500 +3. The sea constantly employing 11,000 per annum. + about 40,000, may precipitate 2,500 + the death of about +4. The plantations (over and above + the accession of foreigners) 1,000 + may carry away +Whereby the net annual increase may +be but 9,000 souls. + +</pre>That of these 20,000 souls, which would be the annual increase +of the kingdom by procreation, were it not for the before-mentioned +abatements.<br> +<br> +<pre>The country increases annually + by procreation 20,000 souls. +The cities and towns, exclusive + of London, by procreation 2,000 souls. +But London and the bills of + mortality decrease annually 2,000 souls. + + +</pre>So that London requires a supply of 2,000 souls per annum to keep +it from decreasing, besides a further supply of about 3,000 per annum +for its increase at this time. In all 5,000, or above a half of +the kingdom’s net increase.<br> +<br> +Mr. King further observes that by the assessments on marriages, births, +and burials, and the collectors’ returns thereupon, and by the +parish registers, it appears that the proportions of marriages, births, +and burials are according to the following scheme<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Vide</i> Scheme A.<br> +<br> +<br> +Whence it may be observed that in 10,000 coexisting persons there are +71 or 72 marriages in the country, producing 343 children; 78 marriages +in towns producing 351 children; 94 marriages in London, producing 376 +children.<br> +<br> +Whereby it follows -<br> +<br> +1. That though each marriage in London produces fewer people than +in the country, yet London in general having a greater proportion of +breeders, is more prolific than the other great towns, and the great +towns are more prolific than the country.<br> +<br> +2. That if the people of London of all ages were as long-lived +as those in the country, London would increase in people much faster +<i>pro rata </i>than the country.<br> +<br> +3. That the reasons why each marriage in London produces fewer +children than the country marriages seem to be -<br> +<br> +(1) From the more frequent fornications and adulteries.<br> +<br> +(2) From a greater luxury and intemperance.<br> +<br> +(3) From a greater intentness on business.<br> +<br> +(4) From the unhealthfulness of the coal smoke.<br> +<br> +(5) From a greater inequality of age between the husbands and wives.<br> +<br> +(6) From the husbands and wives not living so long as in the country.<br> +<br> +He further observes, accounting the people to be 5,500,000, that the +said five millions and a half (including the transitory people and vagrants) +appear by the assessments on marriages, births, and burials, to bear +the following proportions in relation to males and females, and other +distinctions of the people, viz.:-<br> +<br> +<br> +<pre>SCHEMA A + + +People Annual Marriages Producing + children + In all each + +530,000 London and bills of mortality 1 in 106 5,000 4.0 +870,000 The cities and market towns 1 in 128 6,800 4.5 +4,100,000 The villages and hamlets 1 in 141 29,200 4.8 +5,500,000 1 in 134 41,000 4.64 + + Annual Births Annual Burials + In all In all +London and bills of mortality 1 in 26½ 20,000 1 in 24.1 22,000 +The cities and market towns 1 in 28½ 30,600 1 in 30.4 28,600 +The villages and hamlets 1 in 29.4 29,200 1 in 34.4 119,400 + 1 in 28.95 190,000 1 in 32.35 170,000 + + +</pre><i>Vide </i>Scheme B.<br> +<br> +<br> +So that the number of communicants is in all 3,260,000 souls; and the +number of fighting men between sixteen and sixty is 1,308,000.<br> +<br> +SCHEME B.<br> +<br> + <pre>Males Females Males Females Both +In London and 10 to 13 230,000 300,000 530,000 + bills of mortality +In the other cities 8 to 9 410,000 460,000 870,000 + and market-towns +In the villages and 100 to 99 2,060,000 2,040,000 4,100,000 + hamlets + 27 to 28 2,700,000 2,800,000 5,500,000 + +</pre><i>That as to other distinctions they appear by the said assessments +to bear these proportions.<br> +<br> + </i><pre>People. Males. Females. +Husbands and wives 1,900,000 950,000 950,000 + at above, 34½% +Widowers at above 1½% 90,000 90,000 +Widows at about 4½% 240,000 240,000 +Children at above 45% 2,500,000 1,300,000 1,200,000 +Servants at about 10½% 560,000 260,000 300,000 +Sojourners and + single persons 4% 210,000 100,000 110,000 + 100% 5,500,000 2,700,000 2,800,000 + +</pre><i>And that the different proportions in each of the said articles +between London, the great towns, and the villages, may the better appear, +he has formed the following scheme:-<br> +<br> + </i><pre>London and Bills The other Cities The Villages and + of Mortality. and great Towns. Hamlets. + Souls. Souls. Souls. +Husbands +and +Wives 37% 196,100 36% 313,200 34% 1,394,000 +Widowers 2% 10,600 2% 17,400 1½% 61,500 +Widows 7% 37,100 6% 52,200 4½% 184,500 +Children 33% 174,900 40% 348,000 47% 1,927,000 +Servants 13% 68,900 11% 95,700 10% 410,000 +Sojourners 8% 42,400 5% 43,500 3% 123,000 + 100% 530,000 100% 870,000 100% 4,100,000 + + +</pre>SCHEME B (Continued)<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>He further observes, supposing the people to be 5,500,000, that the +yearly births of the Kingdom may be 190,000, and that the several ages +of the people may be as follows</i>:<br> +<br> +<br> + <pre>In all Males Females +Those under 1 years old 170,000 88,500 81,500 +Those under 5 years old 820,000 413,300 406,700 +Those under 10 years old 1,520,000 762,900 757,100 +Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 1,578,000 1,682,000 +Those above 21 years old 2,700,000 1,300,000 1,400,000 +Those above 25 years old 2,400,000 1,152,000 1,248,000 +Those above 60 years old 600,000 270,000 330,000 +Those under 16 years old 2,240,000 +Those above 16 years old 3,260,000 +Total of the people 5,500,000 + + +</pre>That the bachelors are about 28 per cent. of the whole, whereof +those under twenty-five years are 25½ per cent., and those above +twenty-five years are 2½ per cent.<br> +<br> +That the maidens are about 28½ per cent. of the whole.<br> +<br> +Whereof those under 25 years are 26½ per cent.<br> +<br> +And those above 25 years are 2 per cent.<br> +<br> +That the males and females in the kingdom in general are aged, one with +another, 27 years and a half.<br> +<br> +That in the kingdom in general there is near as many people living under +20 years of age as there is above 20, whereof half of the males are +under 19, and one half of the females are under 21 years.<br> +<br> +That the ages of the people, according to their several distinctions, +are as follows, viz.:-<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>Vide </i>Scheme C.<br> +<br> +<br> +Having thus stated the numbers of the people, he gives a scheme of the +income and expense of the several families of England, calculated for +the year 1688.<br> +<br> +SCHEME C<br> +<br> +<br> +<pre>The husbands are aged 43 years apiece, which, at 17¼%, makes 742 years. +The wives 40 17¼% 690 +The widowers 56 1½% 84 +The widows 60 4½% 270 +The children 12 45% 540 +The servants 27 10½% 284 +The sojourners 35 4% 140 +At a medium 27½ 100 2,750 + + + +</pre><i>Vide </i>Scheme D.<br> +<br> +<br> +Mr. King’s modesty has been so far overruled as to suffer us to +communicate these his excellent computations, which we can the more +safely commend, having examined them very carefully, tried them by some +little operations of our own upon the same subject, and compared them +with the schemes of other persons, who take pleasure in the like studies.<br> +<br> +What he says concerning the number of the people to be 5,500,000 is +no positive assertion, nor shall we pretend anywhere to determine in +that matter; what he lays down is by way of hypothesis, that supposing +the inhabitants of England to have been, A.D. 1300, 2,860,000 heads, +by the orderly series of increase allowed of by all writers they may +probably be about A.D. 1700, 5,500,000 heads; but if they were A.D. +1300 either less or more, the case must proportionably alter; for as +to his allowances for plagues, great mortalities, civil wars, the sea, +and the plantations, they seem very reasonable, and not well to be controverted.<br> +<br> +Upon these schemes of Mr. King we shall make several remarks, though +the text deserves much a better comment.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<pre>SCHEME D. - A SCHEME OF THE INCOME AND EXPENSE OF THE SEVERAL + FAMILIES OF ENGLAND, CALCULATED FOR THE YEAR + 1688 +Number of Ranks, Degrees and Heads per + Families. Qualifications Family. + 160 Temporal Lords 40 + 26 Spiritual Lords 20 + 800 Baronets 16 + 600 Knights 13 + 3,000 Esquires 10 + 12,000 Gentlemen 8 + 5,000 Persons in greater offices and places 8 + 5,000 Persons in lesser offices and places 6 + 2,000 Eminent merchants and traders by sea 8 + 8,000 Lesser merchants and traders by sea 6 + 10,000 Persons in the law 7 + 2,000 Eminent clergymen 6 + 8,000 Lesser clergymen 5 + 40,000 Freeholders of the better sort 7 + 120,000 Freeholders of the lesser sort 5½ + 150,000 Farmers 5 + 15,000 Persons in liberal arts and sciences 5 + 50,000 Shopkeepers and tradesmen 4½ + 60,000 Artisans and handicrafts 4 + 5,000 Naval officers 4 + 4,000 Military officers 4 + 500,586 5.33 + 50,000 Common seamen 3 + 364,000 Labouring people and out-servants 3½ + 400,000 Cottagers and paupers 3¼ + 35,000 Common soldiers 2 + 849,000 + Vagrants, as gipsies, thieves, + beggars, &c. 3¼ + 500,586 Increasing the wealth of the kingdom 5.33 + 849,000 Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom 3¼ +1,349,586 Net totals 4 1/13 + + +</pre>[The previous table continues but is too wide for the page. +It has been split down the middle - DP.]<br> +<br> +<br> + <pre>Number Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly Yearly + of Income Income Income Expense Increase Incr. + Persons per. in per. per per. in + Family general Hd. Hd. Hd. General + £ s. £ £ s. £ s. d. £ s. d. £ + 6,400 3,200 0 512,000 80 0 70 0 0 10 0 0 64,000 + 520 1,300 0 33,800 65 0 45 0 0 20 0 0 10,400 + 12,800 880 0 704,000 55 0 49 0 0 6 0 0 76,800 + 7,800 650 0 390,000 50 0 45 0 0 5 0 0 39,000 + 30,000 450 0 1,200,000 45 0 41 0 0 4 0 0 120,000 + 96,000 280 0 2,880,000 35 0 32 0 0 3 0 0 288,000 + 40,000 240 0 1,200,000 30 0 26 0 0 4 0 0 160,000 + 30,000 120 0 600,000 20 0 17 0 0 3 0 0 90,000 + 16,000 400 0 800,000 50 0 37 0 0 13 0 0 208,000 + 48,000 198 0 1,600,000 33 0 27 0 0 6 0 0 288,000 + 70,000 154 0 1,540,000 22 0 18 0 0 4 0 0 280,000 + 12,000 72 0 144,000 12 0 10 0 0 2 0 0 24,000 + 40,000 50 0 400,000 10 0 9 4 0 0 16 0 32,000 + 280,000 91 0 3,640,000 13 0 11 15 0 1 5 0 350,000 + 660,000 55 0 6,600,000 10 0 9 10 0 0 10 0 330,000 + 750,000 42 10 6,375,000 8 10 8 5 0 0 5 0 187,500 + 75,000 60 0 900,000 12 0 11 0 0 1 0 0 75,000 + 225,000 45 0 2,250,000 10 0 9 0 0 1 0 0 225,000 + 240,000 38 0 2,280,000 9 10 9 0 0 0 10 0 120,000 + 20,000 80 0 400,000 20 0 18 0 0 2 0 0 40,000 + 16,000 60 0 240,000 15 0 14 0 0 1 0 0 16,000 +2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 l1 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700 + Decrease.Decrease. + 150,000 20 0 1,000,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 75,000 +1,275,000 15 0 5,460,000 4 10 4 12 0 0 2 0 127,500 +1,300,000 6 10 2,000,000 2 0 2 5 0 0 5 0 325,000 + 70,000 14 0 490,000 7 0 7 10 0 0 10 0 35,000 +2,795,000 10 10 8,950,000 3 5 3 9 0 0 4 0 562,500 + 30,000 60,000 2 0 4 0 0 2 0 0 60,000 + So the General Account is +2,675,520 68 18 34,488,800 12 18 11 15 4 1 2 8 3,023,700 +2,825,000 10 10 9,010,000 3 3 3 7 6 0 4 6 622,500 +5,500,520 32 5 43,491,800 7 18 7 9 3 0 8 9 2,401,200 + +</pre>The people being the first matter of power and wealth, by whose +labour and industry a nation must be gainers in the balance, their increase +or decrease must be carefully observed by any government that designs +to thrive; that is, their increase must be promoted by good conduct +and wholesome laws, and if they have been decreased by war, or any other +accident, the breach is to be made up as soon as possible, for it is +a maim in the body politic affecting all its parts.<br> +<br> +Almost all countries in the world have been more or less populous, as +liberty and property have been there well or ill secured. The +first constitution of Rome was no ill-founded government, a kingly power +limited by laws; and the people increased so fast, that, from a small +beginning, in the reign of their sixth king were they able to send out +an army of 80,000 men. And in the time of the commonwealth, in +that invasion which the Gauls made upon Italy, not long before Hannibal +came thither, they were grown so numerous, as that their troops consisted +of 700,000 foot and 70,000 horse; it is true their allies were comprehended +in this number, but the ordinary people fit to bear arms being mustered +in Rome and Campania, amounted to 250,000 foot and 23,000 horse.<br> +<br> +Nothing, therefore, can more contribute to the rendering England populous +and strong than to have liberty upon a right footing, and our legal +constitution firmly preserved. A nation may be as well called +free under a limited kingship as in a commonwealth, and it is to this +good form of our government that we partly owe that doubling of the +people which has probably happened here in the 435 years last past. +And if the ambition of some, and the mercenary temper of others, should +bring us at any time to alter our constitution, and to give up our ancient +rights, we shall find our numbers diminish visibly and fast. For +liberty encourages procreation, and not only keeps our own inhabitants +among us, but invites strangers to come and live under the shelter of +our laws.<br> +<br> +The Romans, indeed, made use of an adventitious help to enlarge their +city, which was by incorporating foreign cities and nations into their +commonwealth; but this way is not without its mischiefs. For the +strangers in Rome by degrees had grown so numerous, and to have so great +a vote in the councils, that the whole Government began to totter, and +decline from its old to its new inhabitants, which Fabius the censor +observing, he applied a remedy in time by reducing all the new citizens +into four tribes, that being contracted into so narrow a space, they +might not have so malignant an influence upon the city.<br> +<br> +An Act of general naturalisation would likewise probably increase our +numbers very fast, and repair what loss we may have suffered in our +people by the late war. It is a matter that has been very warmly +contended for by many good patriots; but peradventure it carries also +its danger with it, which perhaps would have the less influence by this +expedient, namely, if an Act of Parliament were made, that no heads +of families hereafter to be naturalised for the first generation, should +have votes in any of our elections. But as the case stands, it +seems against the nature of right government that strangers (who may +be spies, and who may have an interest opposite to that of England, +and who at best ever join in one link of obsequiousness to the Ministers) +should be suffered to intermeddle in that important business of sending +members to Parliament. From their sons indeed there is less to +fear, who by birth and nature may come to have the same interest and +inclinations as the natives.<br> +<br> +And though the expedient of Fabius Maximus, to contract the strangers +into four tribes, might be reasonable where the affairs of a whole empire +were transacted by magistrates chosen in one city, yet the same policy +may not hold good in England; foreigners cannot influence elections +here by being dispersed about in the several counties of the kingdom, +where they can never come to have any considerable strength. But +some time or other they may endanger the government by being suffered +to remain, such vast numbers of them here in London where they inhabit +altogether, at least 30,000 persons in two quarters of the town, without +intermarrying with the English, or learning our language, by which means +for several years to come they are in a way still to continue foreigners, +and perhaps may have a foreign interest and foreign inclinations; to +permit this cannot be advisable or safe. It may therefore be proper +to limit any new Acts of naturalisation with such restrictions as may +make the accession of strangers not dangerous to the public.<br> +<br> +An accession of strangers, well regulated, may add to our strength and +numbers; but then it must be composed of labouring men, artificers, +merchants, and other rich men, and not of foreign soldiers, since such +fright and drive away from a nation more people than their troops can +well consist of: for if it has been ever seen that men abound most where +there is most freedom (China excepted, whose climate excels all others, +and where the exercise of the tyranny is mild and easy) it must follow +that people will in time desert those countries whose best flower is +their liberties, if those liberties are thought precarious or in danger. +That foreign soldiers are dangerous to liberty, we may produce examples +from all countries and all ages; but we shall instance only one, because +it is eminent above all the rest.<br> +<br> +The Carthaginians, in their wars, did very much use mercenary and foreign +troops; and when the peace was made between them and the Romans, after +a long dispute for the dominion of Sicily, they brought their army home +to be paid and disbanded, which Gesco, their General, had the charge +of embarking, who did order all his part with great dexterity and wisdom. +But the State of Carthage wanting money to clear arrears, and satisfy +the troops, was forced to keep them up longer than was designed. +The army consisted of Gauls, Ligurians, Baleareans, and Greeks. +At first they were insolent in their quarters in Carthage, and were +prevailed upon to remove to Sicca, where they were to remain and expect +their pay. There they grew presently corrupted with ease and pleasure, +and fell into mutinies and disorder, and to making extravagant demands +of pay and gratuities; and in a rage, with their arms in their hands, +they marched 20,000 of them towards Carthage, encamping within fifteen +miles of the city; and chose Spendius and Matho, two profligate wretches, +for their leaders, and imprisoned Gesco, who was deputed to them from +the commonwealth. Afterwards they caused almost all the Africans, +their tributaries, to revolt; they grew in a short time to be 70,000 +strong; they fought several battles with Hanno and Hamilcar Barcas. +During these transactions, the mercenaries that were in garrison in +Sardinia mutinied likewise, murdering their commander and all the Carthaginians; +while Spendius and Matho, to render their accomplices more desperate, +put Gesco to a cruel death, presuming afterwards to lay siege to Carthage +itself. They met with a shock indeed at Prion, where 40,000 of +them were slaughtered; but soon after this battle, in another they took +one of the Carthaginian generals prisoner, whom they fixed to a cross, +crucifying thirty of the principal senators round about him. Spendius +and Matho were at last taken, the one crucified and the other tormented +to death: but the war lasted three years and near four months with excessive +cruelty; in which the State of Carthage lost several battles, and was +often brought within a hair’s-breadth of utter ruin.<br> +<br> +If so great a commonwealth as Carthage, though assisted at that time +by Hiero, King of Syracuse, and by the Romans, ran the hazard of losing +their empire, city, and liberties, by the insurrection of a handful +of mercenaries, whose first strength was but 20,000 men; it should be +a warning to all free nations how they suffer armies so composed to +be among them, and it should frighten a wise State from desiring such +an increase of people as may be had by the bringing over foreign soldiers.<br> +<br> +Indeed, all armies whatsoever, if they are over-large, tend to the dispeopling +of a country, of which our neighbour nation is a sufficient proof, where +in one of the best climates in Europe men are wanting to till the ground. +For children do not proceed from the intemperate pleasures taken loosely +and at random, but from a regular way of living, where the father of +the family desires to rear up and provide for the offspring he shall +beget.<br> +<br> +Securing the liberties of a nation may be laid down as a fundamental +for increasing the numbers of its people; but there are other polities +thereunto conducing which no wise State has ever neglected.<br> +<br> +No race of men did multiply so fast as the Jews, which may be attributed +chiefly to the wisdom of Moses their Lawgiver, in contriving to promote +the state of marriage.<br> +<br> +The Romans had the same care, paying no respect to a man childless by +his own fault, and giving great immunities and privileges, both in the +city and provinces, to those who had such and such a number of children. +Encouragements of the like kind are also given in France to such as +enrich the commonwealth by a large issue.<br> +<br> +But we in England have taken another course, laying a fine upon the +marriage bed, which seems small to those who only contemplate the pomp +and wealth round about them, and in their view; but they who look into +all the different ranks of men are well satisfied that this duty on +marriages and births is a very grievous burden upon the poorer sort, +whose numbers compose the strength and wealth of any nation. This +tax was introduced by the necessity of affairs. It is difficult +to say what may be the event of a new thing; but if we are to take measures +from past wisdom, which exempted prolific families from public duties, +we should not lay impositions upon those who find it hard enough to +maintain themselves. If this tax be such a weight upon the poor +as to discourage marriage and hinder propagation, which seems the truth, +no doubt it ought to be abolished; and at a convenient time we ought +to change it for some other duty, if there were only this single reason, +that it is so directly opposite to the polity of all ages and all countries.<br> +<br> +In order to have hands to carry on labour and manufactures, which must +make us gainers in the balance of trade, we ought not to deter, but +rather invite men to marry, which is to be done by privileges and exemptions +for such a number of children, and by denying certain offices of trust +and dignities to all unmarried persons; and where it is once made a +fashion among those of the better sort, it will quickly obtain with +the lower degree.<br> +<br> +Mr. King, in his scheme (for which he has as authentic grounds as perhaps +the matter is capable of) lays down that the annual marriages of England +are about 41,000, which is one marriage out of every 134 persons. +Upon which, we observe, that this is not a due proportion, considering +how few of our adult males (in comparison with other countries) perish +by war or any other accident; from whence may be inferred that our polity +is some way or other defective, or the marriages would bear a nearer +proportion with the gross number of our people; for which defect, if +a remedy can be found, there will be so much more strength added to +the kingdom.<br> +<br> +From the books of assessment on births, marriages, &c., by the nearest +view he can make, he divides the 5,500,000 people into 2,700,000 males +and 2,800,000 females; from whence (considering the females exceed the +males in number, and considering that the men marry later than women, +and that many of the males are of necessity absent in the wars, at sea, +and upon other business) it follows that a large proportion of the females +remain unmarried, though at an adult age, which is a dead loss to the +nation, every birth being as so much certain treasure, upon which account +such laws must be for the public good, as induce all men to marry whose +circumstances permit it.<br> +<br> +From his division of the people it may be likewise observed, that the +near proportion there is between the males and females (which is said +to hold also in other places) is an argument (and the strongest that +can be produced) against polygamy, and the increase of mankind which +some think might be from thence expected; for if Nature had intended +to one man a plurality of wives, she would have ordered a great many +more female births than male, her designments being always right and +wise.<br> +<br> +The securing the parish for bastard children is become so small a punishment +and so easily compounded, that it very much hinders marriage. +The Dutch compel men of all ranks to marry the woman whom they have +got with child, and perhaps it would tend to the further peopling of +England if the common people here, under such a certain degree, were +condemned by some new law to suffer the same penalty.<br> +<br> +A country that makes provision to increase in inhabitants, whose situation +is good, and whose people have a genius adapted to trade, will never +fail to be gainers in the balance, provided the labour and industry +of their people be well managed and carefully directed.<br> +<br> +The more any man contemplates these matters the more he will come to +be of opinion, that England is capable of being rendered one of the +strongest nations, and the richest spot of ground in Europe.<br> +<br> +It is not extent of territory that makes a country powerful, but numbers +of men well employed, convenient ports, a good navy, and a soil producing +all sort of commodities. The materials for all this we have, and +so improvable, that if we did but second the gifts of Nature with our +own industry we should soon arrive to a pitch of greatness that would +put us at least upon an equal footing with any of our neighbours.<br> +<br> +If we had the complement of men our land can maintain and nourish; if +we had as much trade as our stock and knowledge in sea affairs is capable +of embracing; if we had such a naval strength as a trade so extended +would easily produce; and, if we had those stores and that wealth which +is the certain result of a large and well-governed traffic, what human +strength could hurt or invade us? On the contrary, should we not +be in a posture not only to resist but to give the law to others?<br> +<br> +Our neighbouring commonwealth has not in territory above 8,000,000 acres, +and perhaps not much above 2,200,000 people, and yet what a figure have +they made in Europe for these last 100 years? What wars have they +maintained? What forces have they resisted? and to what a height +of power are they now come, and all by good order and wise government?<br> +<br> +They are liable to frequent invasions; they labour under the inconvenience +and danger of bad ports; they consume immense sums every year to defend +their land against the sea; all which difficulties they have subdued +by an unwearied industry.<br> +<br> +We are fenced by nature against foreign enemies, our ports are safe, +we fear no irruptions of the sea, our land territory at home is at least +39,000,000 acres. We have in all likelihood not less than 5,500,000 +people. What a nation might we then become, if all these advantages +were thoroughly improved, and if a right application were made of all +this strength and of these numbers?<br> +<br> +They who apprehend the immoderate growth of any prince or State may, +perhaps, succeed by beginning first, and by attempting to pull down +such a dangerous neighbour, but very often their good designs are disappointed. +In all appearance they proceed more safely, who, under such a fear, +make themselves strong and powerful at home. And this was the +course which Philip, King of Macedon, the father of Perseus, took, when +he thought to be invaded by the Romans.<br> +<br> +The greatness of Rome gave Carthage very anxious thoughts, and it rather +seems that they entered into the second Punic War more for fear the +Romans should have the universal empire, than out of any ambition to +lord it themselves over the whole world. Their design was virtuous, +and peradventure wise to endeavour at some early interruption to a rival +that grew so fast. However, we see they miscarried, though their +armies were led by Hannibal. But fortune which had determined +the dominion of the earth for Rome, did, perhaps, lead them into the +fatal counsel of passing the Eber contrary to the articles of peace +concluded with Asdrubal, and of attacking Saguntum before they had sufficiently +recovered of the wounds they had suffered in the wars about Sicily, +Sardinia, and with their own rebels. If the high courage of Hannibal +had not driven the commonwealth into a new war while it was yet faint +and weak, and if they had been suffered to pursue their victories in +Spain, and to get firm footing in that rich, warlike, and then populous +country, very probably in a few years they might have been a more equal +match for the Roman people. It is true, if the Romans had endeavoured, +at the conquest of Spain, and if they had disturbed the Carthaginians +in that country, the war must have been unavoidable, because it was +evident in that age, and will be apparent in the times we live in, that +whatever foreign power, already grown great, can add to its dominion +the possession of Spain, will stand fair for universal empire.<br> +<br> +But unless some such cogent reason of state, as is here instanced, intervene, +in all appearance the best way for a nation that apprehends the growing +power of any neighbour is to fortify itself within; we do not mean by +land armies, which rather debilitate than strengthen a country, but +by potent navies, by thrift in the public treasure, care of the people’s +trade, and all the other honest and useful arts of peace.<br> +<br> +By such an improvement of our native strength, agreeable to the laws +and to the temper of a free nation, England without doubt may be brought +to so good a posture and condition of defending itself, as not to apprehend +any neighbour jealous of its strength or envious of its greatness.<br> +<br> +And to this end we open these schemes, that a wise Government under +which we live, not having any designs to become arbitrary, may see what +materials they have to work upon, and how far our native wealth is able +to second their good intentions of preserving us a rich and a free people.<br> +<br> +Having said something of the number of our inhabitants, we shall proceed +to discourse of their different degrees and ranks, and to examine who +are a burden and who are a profit to the public, for by how much every +part and member of the commonwealth can be made useful to the whole, +by so much a nation will be more and more a gainer in this balance of +trade which we are to treat of.<br> +<br> +Mr. King, from the assessments on births and marriages, and from the +polls, has formed the scheme here inserted, of the ranks, degrees, titles +and qualifications of the people. He has done it so judiciously, +and upon such grounds, that is well worth the careful perusal of any +curious person, from thence we shall make some observations in order +to put our present matter in a clearer light.<br> +<br> +First, this scheme detects their error, who in the calculation they +frame contemplate nothing but the wealth and plenty they see in rich +cities and great towns, and from thence make a judgment of the kingdom’s +remaining part, and from this view conclude that taxes and payments +to the public do mostly arise from the gentry and better sort, by which +measures they neither contrive their imposition aright, nor are they +able to give a true estimate what it shall produce; but when we have +divided the inhabitants of England into their proper classes, it will +appear that the nobility and gentry are but a small part of the whole +body of the people.<br> +<br> +Believing that taxes fell chiefly upon the better sort, they care not +what they lay, as thinking they will not be felt; but when they come +to be levied, they either fall short, and so run the public into an +immense debt, or they light so heavily upon the poorer sort, as to occasion +insufferable clamours; and they, whose proper business it was to contrive +these matters better have been so unskilful, that the legislative power +has been more than once compelled for the peoples’ ease to give +new funds, instead of others that had been ill projected.<br> +<br> +This may be generally said, that all duties whatsoever upon the consumption +of a large produce, fall with the greatest weight upon the common sort, +so that such as think in new duties that they chiefly tax the rich will +find themselves quite mistaken; for either their fund must yield little, +or it must arise from the whole body of the people, of which the richer +sort are but a small proportion.<br> +<br> +And though war, and national debts and engagements, might heretofore +very rationally plead for excises upon our home consumption, yet now +there is a peace, it is the concern of every man that loves his country +to proceed warily in laying new ones, and to get off those which are +already laid as fast as ever he can. High customs and high excises +both together are incompatible, either of them alone are to be endured, +but to have them co-exist is suffered in no well-governed nation. +If materials of foreign growth were at an easy rate, a high price might +be the better borne in things of our own product, but to have both dear +at once (and by reason of the duties laid upon them) is ruinous to the +inferior rank of men, and this ought to weigh more with us, when we +consider that even of the common people a subdivision is to be made, +of which one part subsist from their own havings, arts, labour, and +industry; and the other part subsist a little from their own labour, +but chiefly from the help and charity of the rank that is above them. +For according to Mr. King’s scheme -<br> +<br> +The nobility and gentry, with their families and retainers, the persons +in offices, merchants, persons in the law, the clergy, freeholders, +farmers, persons in sciences and liberal arts, shopkeepers, and tradesmen, +handicrafts, men, naval officers, with the families and dependants upon +all these altogether, make up the number of 2,675,520 heads.<br> +<br> +The common seamen, common soldiers, labouring people, and out-servants, +cottagers, paupers, and their families, with the vagrants, make up the +number of 2,825,000 heads.<br> +<br> +In all 5,500,520 heads.<br> +<br> +So that here seems a majority of the people, whose chief dependence +and subsistence is from the other part, which majority is much greater, +in respect of the number of families, because 500,000 families contribute +to the support of 850,000 families. In contemplation of which, +great care should be taken not to lay new duties upon the home consumption, +unless upon the extremest necessities of the State; for though such +impositions cannot be said to fall directly upon the lower rank, whose +poverty hinders them from consuming such materials (though there are +few excises to which the meanest person does not pay something), yet +indirectly, and by unavoidable consequences, they are rather more affected +by high duties upon our home-consumption than the wealthier degree of +people, and so we shall find the case to be, if we look carefully into +all the distinct ranks of men there enumerated.<br> +<br> +First, as to the nobility and gentry, they must of necessity retrench +their families and expenses, if excessive impositions are laid upon +all sorts of materials for consumption, from whence follows, that the +degree below them of merchants, shopkeepers, tradesmen, and artisans, +must want employment.<br> +<br> +Secondly, as to the manufactures, high excises in time of peace are +utterly destructive to that principal part of England’s wealth; +for if malt, coals, salt, leather, and other things, bear a great price, +the wages of servants, workmen, and artificers, will consequently rise, +for the income must bear some proportion with the expense; and if such +as set the poor to work find wages for labour or manufacture advance +upon them, they must rise in the price of their commodity, or they cannot +live, all which would signify little, if nothing but our own dealings +among one another were thereby affected; but it has a consequence far +more pernicious in relation to our foreign trade, for it is the exportation +of our own product that must make England rich; to be gainers in the +balance of trade, we must carry out of our own product what will purchase +the things of foreign growth that are needful for our own consumption, +with some overplus either in bullion or goods to be sold in other countries, +which overplus is the profit a nation makes by trade, and it is more +or less according to the natural frugality of the people that export, +or as from the low price of labour and manufacture they can afford the +commodity cheap, and at a rate not to be undersold in foreign markets. +The Dutch, whose labour and manufactures are dear by reason of home +excises, can notwithstanding sell cheap abroad, because this disadvantage +they labour under is balanced by the parsimonious temper of their people; +but in England, where this frugality is hardly to be introduced, if +the duties upon our home consumption are so large as to raise considerably +the price of labour and manufacture, all our commodities for exportation +must by degrees so advance in the prime value, that they cannot be sold +at a rate which will give them vent in foreign markets, and we must +be everywhere undersold by our wiser neighbours. But the consequence +of such duties in times of peace will fall most heavily upon our woollen +manufactures, of which most have more value from the workmanship than +the material; and if the price of this workmanship be enhanced, it will +in a short course of time put a necessity upon those we deal with of +setting up manufactures of their own, such as they can, or of buying +goods of the like kind and use from nations that can afford them cheaper. +And in this point we are to consider, that the bulk of our woollen exports +does not consist in draperies made of the fine wool, peculiar to our +soil, but is composed of coarse broad cloths, such as Yorkshire cloths, +kerseys, which make a great part of our exports, and may be, and are +made of a coarser wool, which is to be had in other countries. +So that we are not singly to value ourselves upon the material, but +also upon the manufacture, which we should make as easy as we can, by +not laying over-heavy burdens upon the manufacturer. And our woollen +goods being two-thirds of our foreign exports, it ought to be the chief +object of the public care, if we expect to be gainers in the balance +of trade, which is what we hunt after in these inquiries.<br> +<br> +Thirdly, as to the lower rank of all, which we compute at 2,825,000 +heads, a majority of the whole people, their principal subsistence is +upon the degrees above them, and if those are rendered uneasy these +must share in the calamity, but even of this inferior sort no small +proportion contribute largely to excises, as labourers and out-servants, +which likewise affect the common seamen, who must thereupon raise their +wages or they will not have wherewithal to keep their families left +at home, and the high wages of seamen is another burden upon our foreign +traffic. As to the cottagers, who are about a fifth part of the +whole people, some duties reach even them, as those upon malt, leather, +and salt, but not much because of their slender consumption, but if +the gentry, upon whose woods and gleanings they live, and who employ +them in day labour, and if the manufacturers, for whom they card and +spin, are overburdened with duties, they cannot afford to give them +so much for their labour and handiwork, nor to yield them those other +reliefs which are their principal subsistence, for want of which these +miserable wretches must perish with cold and hunger.<br> +<br> +Thus we see excises either directly or indirectly fall upon the whole +body of the people, but we do not take notice of these matters as receding +from our former opinion. On the contrary, we still think them +the most easy and equal way of taxing a nation, and perhaps it is demonstrable +that if we had fallen into this method at the beginning of the war of +raising the year’s expense within the year by excises, England +had not been now indebted so many millions, but what was advisable under +such a necessity and danger is not to be pursued in times of peace, +especially in a country depending so much upon trade and manufactures.<br> +<br> +Our study now ought to be how those debts may be speedily cleared off, +for which these new revenues are the funds, that trade may again move +freely as it did heretofore, without such a heavy clog; but this point +we shall more amply handle when we come to speak of our payments to +the public.<br> +<br> +Mr. King divides the whole body of the people into two principal classes, +viz.:-<br> +<br> +Increasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,675,520 heads.<br> +Decreasing the wealth of the kingdom 2,825,000 heads.<br> +<br> +By which he means that the first class of the people from land, arts, +and industry maintain themselves, and add every year something to the +nation’s general stock, and besides this, out of their superfluity, +contribute every year so much to the maintenance of others.<br> +<br> +That of the second class some partly maintain themselves by labour (as +the heads of the cottage families), but that the rest, as most of the +wives and children of these, sick and impotent people, idle beggars +and vagrants, are nourished at the cost of others, and are a yearly +burden to the public, consuming annually so much as would be otherwise +added to the nation’s general stock.<br> +<br> +The bodies of men are, without doubt, the most valuable treasure of +a country, and in their sphere the ordinary people are as serviceable +to the commonwealth as the rich if they are employed in honest labour +and useful arts, and such being more in number do more contribute to +increase the nation’s wealth than the higher rank.<br> +<br> +But a country may be populous and yet poor (as were the ancient Gauls +and Scythians), so that numbers, unless they are well employed, make +the body politic big but unwieldy, strong but unactive, as to any uses +of good government.<br> +<br> +Theirs is a wrong opinion who think all mouths profit a country that +consume its produce, and it may be more truly affirmed, that he who +does not some way serve the commonwealth, either by being employed or +by employing others, is not only a useless, but a hurtful member to +it.<br> +<br> +As it is charity, and what we indeed owe to human kind, to make provision +for the aged, the lame, the sick, blind, and impotent, so it is a justice +we owe to the commonwealth not to suffer such as have health, and who +might maintain themselves, to be drones and live upon the labour of +others.<br> +<br> +The bulk of such as are a burden to the public consists in the cottagers +and paupers, beggars in great cities and towns, and vagrants.<br> +<br> +Upon a survey of the hearth books, made in Michaelmas, 1685, it was +found that of the 1,300,000 houses in the whole kingdom, those of one +chimney amounted to 554,631, but some of these having land about them, +in all our calculations, we have computed the cottagers but at 500,000 +families; but of these, a large number may get their own livelihood, +and are no charge to the parish, for which reason Mr. King very judiciously +computes his cottagers and paupers, decreasing the wealth of the nation +but at 400,000 families, in which account he includes the poor-houses +in cities, towns, and villages, besides which he reckons 30,000 vagrants, +and all these together to make up 1,330,000 heads.<br> +<br> +This is a very great proportion of the people to be a burden upon the +other part, and is a weight upon the land interest, of which the landed +gentlemen must certainly be very sensible.<br> +<br> +If this vast body of men, instead of being expensive, could be rendered +beneficial to the commonwealth, it were a work, no doubt, highly to +be promoted by all who love their country.<br> +<br> +It seems evident, to such as have considered these matters, and who +have observed how they are ordered in nations under a good polity, that +the number of such who through age or impotence stand in real need of +relief, is but small and might be maintained for very little, and that +the poor rates are swelled to the extravagant degree we now see them +at by two sorts of people, one of which, by reason of our slack administration, +is suffered to remain in sloth, and the other, through a defect in our +constitution, continue in wretched poverty for want of employment, though +willing enough to undertake it.<br> +<br> +All this seems capable of a remedy, the laws may be armed against voluntary +idleness, so as to prevent it, and a way may probably be found out to +set those to work who are desirous to support themselves by their own +labour; and if this could be brought about, it would not only put a +stop to the course of that vice which is the consequence of an idle +life, but it would greatly tend to enrich the commonwealth, for if the +industry of not half the people maintain in some degree the other part, +and, besides, in times of peace did add every year near two million +and a half to the general stock of England, to what pitch of wealth +and greatness might we not be brought, if one limb were not suffered +to draw away the nourishment of the other, and if all the members of +the body politic were rendered useful to it?<br> +<br> +Nature, in her contrivances, has made every part of a living creature +either for ornament or use; the same should be in a politic institution +rightly governed.<br> +<br> +It may be laid down for an undeniable truth, that where all work nobody +will want, and to promote this would be a greater charity and more meritorious +than to build hospitals, which very often are but so many monuments +of ill-gotten riches attended with late repentance.<br> +<br> +To make as many as possible of these 1,330,000 persons (whereof not +above 330,000 are children too young to work) who now live chiefly upon +others get themselves a large share of their maintenance would be the +opening a new vein of treasure of some millions sterling per annum; +it would be a present ease to every particular man of substance, and +a lasting benefit to the whole body of the kingdom, for it would not +only nourish but increase the numbers of the people, of which many thousands +perish every year by those diseases contracted under a slothful poverty.<br> +<br> +Our laws relating to the poor are very numerous, and this matter has +employed the care of every age for a long time, though but with little +success, partly through the ill execution, and partly through some defect +in the very laws.<br> +<br> +The corruptions of mankind are grown so great that, now-a-days, laws +are not much observed which do not in a manner execute themselves; of +this nature are those laws which relate to bringing in the Prince’s +revenue, which never fail to be put in execution, because the people +must pay, and the Prince will be paid; but where only one part of the +constitution, the people, are immediately concerned, as in laws relating +to the poor, the highways, assizes, and other civil economy, and good +order in the state, those are but slenderly regarded.<br> +<br> +The public good being therefore, very often, not a motive strong enough +to engage the magistrate to perform his duty, lawgivers have many times +fortified their laws with penalties, wherein private persons may have +a profit, thereby to stir up the people to put the laws in execution.<br> +<br> +In countries depraved nothing proceeds well wherein particular men do +not one way or other find their account; and rather than a public good +should not go on at all, without doubt, it is better to give private +men some interest to set it forward.<br> +<br> +For which reason it may be worth the consideration of such as study +the prosperity and welfare of England, whether this great engine of +maintaining the poor, and finding them work and employment, may not +be put in motion by giving some body of undertakers a reasonable gain +to put the machine upon its wheels.<br> +<br> +In order to which, we shall here insert a proposal delivered to the +House of Commons last session of Parliament, for the better maintaining +the impotent, and employing and setting to work the other poor of this +kingdom.<br> +<br> +In matters of this nature, it is always good to have some model or plan +laid down, which thinking men may contemplate, alter, and correct, as +they see occasion; and the writer of these papers does rather choose +to offer this scheme, because he is satisfied it was composed by a gentleman +of great abilities, and who has made both the poor rates, and their +number, more his study than any other person in the nation. The +proposal is as follows<br> +<br> +<br> +<i>A Scheme for Setting the Poor to Work.<br> +<br> +<br> +</i>First, that such persons as shall subscribe and pay the sum of £300,000 +as a stock for and towards the better maintaining the impotent poor, +and for buying commodities and materials to employ and set at work the +other poor, be incorporated and made one body politic, &c. +By the name of the Governor and Company for Maintaining and Employing +the Poor of this Kingdom.<br> +<br> +By all former propositions, it was intended that the parishes should +advance several years’ rates to raise a stock, but by this proposal +the experiment is to be made by private persons at their risk; and £300,000 +may be judged a very good stock, which, added to the poor rates for +a certain number of years, will be a very good fund for buying commodities +and materials for a million of money at any time. This subscription +ought to be free for everybody, and if the sum were subscribed in the +several counties of England and Wales, in proportion to their poor rates, +or the monthly assessment, it would be most convenient; and provision +may be made that no person shall transfer his interest but to one of +the same county, which will keep the interest there during the term; +and as to its being one Corporation, it is presumed this will be most +beneficial to the public. For first, all disputes on removes, +which are very chargeable and burthensome, will be at an end - this +proposal intending, that wherever the poor are, they shall be maintained +or employed. Secondly, it will prevent one county which shall +be diligent, imposing on their neighbours who may be negligent, or getting +away their manufactures from them. Thirdly, in case of fire, plague, +or loss of manufacture, the stock of one county may not be sufficient +to support the places where such calamities may happen; and it is necessary +the whole body should support every particular member, so that hereby +there will be a general care to administer to every place according +to their necessities.<br> +<br> +Secondly, that the said Corporation be established for the term of one-and-twenty +years.<br> +<br> +The Corporation ought to be established for one-and-twenty years, or +otherwise it cannot have the benefit the law gives in case of infants, +which is their service for their education; besides, it will be some +years before a matter of this nature can be brought into practice.<br> +<br> +Thirdly, that the said sum of £300,000 be paid in, and laid out +for the purposes aforesaid, to remain as a stock for and during the +said term of one-and-twenty years.<br> +<br> +The subscription ought to be taken at the passing of the Act, but the +Corporation to be left at liberty to begin either the Michaelmas or +the Lady Day after, as they shall think fit. And XXX per cent. +to be paid at the subscribing to persons appointed for that purpose, +and the remainder before they begin to act; but so as £300,000 +shall be always in stock during the term, notwithstanding any dividends +or other disposition: and an account thereof to be exhibited twice in +every year upon oath, before the Lord Chancellor for the time being.<br> +<br> +Fourthly, that the said corporation do by themselves, or agents in every +parish of England, from and after the XXX day of XXX during the said +term of one-and-twenty years, provide for the real impotent poor good +and sufficient maintenance and reception, as good or better than hath +at any time within the space of XXX years before the said XXX day of +XXX been provided or allowed to such impotent poor, and so shall continue +to provide for such impotent poor, and what other growing impotent poor +shall happen in the said parish during the said term.<br> +<br> +By impotent poor is to be understood all infants and old and decrepid +persons not able to work; also persons who by sickness or any accident +are for the time unable to labour for themselves or families; and all +persons (not being fit for labour) who were usually relieved by the +money raised for the use of the poor; they shall have maintenance, as +good or better, as within XXX years they used to have.<br> +<br> +This does not directly determine what that shall be, nor is it possible, +by reason a shilling in one county is as much as two in another; but +it will be the interest of the Corporation that such poor be well provided +for, by reason the contrary will occasion all the complaints or clamour +that probably can be made against the Corporation.<br> +<br> +Fifthly, that the Corporation do provide (as well for all such poor +which on the said XXX day of XXX shall be on the poor books, as for +what other growing poor shall happen in the said term who are or shall +be able to labour or do any work) sufficient labour and work proper +for such persons to be employed in. And that provision shall be +made for such labouring persons according to their labour, so as such +provision doth not exceed three-fourth parts as much as any other person +would have paid for such labour. And in case they are not employed +and set to work, then such persons shall, until materials or labour +be provided for them, be maintained as impotent poor; but so as such +persons who shall hereafter enter themselves on the poor’s book, +being able to labour, shall not quit the service of the corporation, +without leave, for the space of six months.<br> +<br> +The Corporation are to provide materials and labour for all that can +work, and to make provision for them not exceeding three-fourth parts +as much as any other person would give for such labour. For example, +if another person would give one of these a shilling, the Corporation +ought to give but ninepence. And the reason is plain, first, because +the Corporation will be obliged to maintain them and their families +in all exigences, which others are not obliged to do, and consequently +they ought not to allow so much as others. Secondly, in case any +persons able to labour, shall come to the Corporation, when their agents +are not prepared with materials to employ them, by this proposal they +are to allow them full provision as impotent poor, until they find them +work, which is entirely in favour of the poor. Thirdly, it is +neither reasonable nor possible for the Corporation to provide materials +upon every occasion, for such persons as shall be entered with them, +unless they can be secure of such persons to work up those materials; +besides, without this provision, all the labouring people of England +will play fast and loose between their employers and the Corporation, +for as they are disobliged by one, they will run to the other, and so +neither shall be sure of them.<br> +<br> +Sixthly, that no impotent poor shall be removed out of the parish where +they dwell, but upon notice in writing given to the churchwardens or +overseers of the said parish, to what place of provision he or she is +removed.<br> +<br> +It is judged the best method to provide for the impotent poor in houses +prepared for that purpose, where proper provision may be made for several, +with all necessaries of care and maintenance. So that in some +places one house will serve the impotent poor of several parishes, in +which case the parish ought to know where to resort, to see if good +provision be made for them.<br> +<br> +Seventhly, that in case provision be not made for the poor of each parish, +in manner as aforesaid (upon due notice given to the agents of the Corporation) +the said parish may order their poor to be maintained, and deduct the +sum by them expended out of the next payments to be made to the said +corporation by the said parish.<br> +<br> +In case any accident happens in a parish, either by sickness, fall, +casualty of fire, or other ways; and that the agent of the Corporation +is not present to provide for them, or having notice doth not immediately +do it, the parish may do it, and deduct so much out of the next payment; +but there must be provision made for the notice, and in what time the +Corporation shall provide for them.<br> +<br> +Eighthly, that the said Corporation shall have and receive for the said +one-and-twenty years, that is to say, from every parish yearly, so much +as such parish paid in any one year, to be computed by a medium of seven +years; namely, from the 25th of March, 1690, to the 25th of March 1697, +and to be paid half-yearly; and besides, shall receive the benefit of +the revenues of all donations given to any parish, or which shall be +given during the said term, and all forfeitures which the law gives +to the use of the poor; and to all other sums which were usually collected +by the parish, for the maintenance of the poor.<br> +<br> +Whatever was raised for or applied to the use of the poor, ought to +be paid over to the Corporation; and where there are any donations for +maintaining the poor, it will answer the design of the donor, by reason +there will be better provision for the maintenance of the poor than +ever; and if that maintenance be so good, as to induce further charities, +no doubt the Corporation ought to be entitled to them. But there +are two objections to this article; first that to make a medium by a +time of war is unreasonable. Secondly, to continue the whole tax +for one-and-twenty years, does not seem to give any benefit to the kingdom +in that time. To the first, it is true, we have a peace, but trade +is lower now than at any time during the war, and the charge of the +poor greater; and when trade will mend is very uncertain. To the +second, it is very plain, that although the charge may be the same to +a parish in the total, yet it will be less to particular persons, because +those who before received alms, will now be enabled to be contributors; +but besides, the turning so many hundred thousand pounds a year (which +in a manner have hitherto been applied only to support idleness) into +industry; and the employing so many other idle vagrants and sturdy beggars, +with the product of their labour, will altogether be a present benefit +to the lands of England, as well in the rents as in the value; and further +the accidental charities in the streets and at doors, is, by a very +modest computation, over and above the poor rates, at least £300,000 +per annum, which will be entirely saved by this proposal, and the persons +set at work; which is a further consideration for its being well received, +since the Corporation are not allowed anything for this service.<br> +<br> +The greater the encouragement is, the better the work will be performed; +and it will become the wisdom of the parliament in what they do, to +make it effectual; for should such an undertaking as this prove ineffectual, +instead of remedying, it will increase the mischief.<br> +<br> +Ninthly, that all the laws made for the provision of the poor, and for +punishing idle vagrant persons, be repealed, and one law made to continue +such parts as are found useful, and to add such other restrictions, +penalties, and provisions, as may effectually attain the end of this +great work.<br> +<br> +The laws hereunto relating are numerous, but the judgment and opinions +given upon them are so various and contradictory, and differ so in sundry +places, as to be inconsistent with any one general scheme of management.<br> +<br> +Tenthly, that proper persons be appointed in every county to determine +all matters and differences which may arise between the corporation +and the respective parishes.<br> +<br> +To prevent any ill usage, neglect or cruelty, it will be necessary to +make provision that the poor may tender their complaints to officers +of the parish; and that those officers having examined the same, and +not finding redress, may apply to persons to be appointed in each county +and each city for that purpose, who may be called supervisors of the +poor, and may have allowance made them for their trouble; and their +business may be to examine the truth of such complaints; and in case +either the parish or corporation judge themselves aggrieved by the determination +of the said supervisors, provision may be made that an appeal lie to +the quarter sessions.<br> +<br> +Eleventhly, that the corporation be obliged to provide for all public +beggars, and to put the laws into execution against public beggars and +idle vagrant persons.<br> +<br> +Such of the public beggars as can work must be employed, the rest to +be maintained as impotent poor, but the laws to be severely put in execution +against those who shall ask any public alms.<br> +<br> +This proposal, which in most parts of it seems to be very maturely weighed, +may be a foundation for those to build upon who have a public spirit +large enough to embrace such a noble undertaking.<br> +<br> +But the common obstruction to anything of this nature is a malignant +temper in some who will not let a public work go on if private persons +are to be gainers by it. When they are to get themselves, they +abandon all sense of virtue; but are clothed in her whitest robe when +they smell profit coming to another, masking themselves with a false +zeal to the commonwealth, where their own turn is not to be served. +It were better, indeed, that men would serve their country for the praise +and honour that follow good actions, but this is not to be expected +in a nation at least leaning towards corruption, and in such an age +it is as much as we can hope for if the prospect of some honest gain +invites people to do the public faithful service. For which reason, +in any undertaking where it can be made apparent that a great benefit +will accrue to the commonwealth in general, we ought not to have an +evil eye upon what fair advantages particular men may thereby expect +to reap, still taking care to keep their appetite of getting within +moderate bounds, laying all just and reasonable restraints upon it, +and making due provision that they may not wrong or oppress their fellow +subjects.<br> +<br> +It is not to be denied, but that if fewer hands were suffered to remain +idle, and if the poor had full employment, it would greatly tend to +the common welfare, and contribute much towards adding every year to +the general stock of England.<br> +<br> +Among the methods that we have here proposed of employing the poor, +and making the whole body of the people useful to the public, we think +it our duty to mind those who consider the common welfare of looking +with a compassionate eye into the prisons of this kingdom, where many +thousands consume their time in vice and idleness, wasting the remainder +of their fortunes, or lavishing the substance of their creditors, eating +bread and doing no work, which is contrary to good order, and pernicious +to the commonwealth.<br> +<br> +We cannot therefore but recommend the thoughts of some good bill that +may effectually put an end to this mischief so scandalous in a trading +country, which should let no hands remain useless.<br> +<br> +It is not at all difficult to contrive such a bill as may relieve and +release the debtor, and yet preserve to his creditors all their fair, +just, and honest rights and interest.<br> +<br> +And so we have in this matter endeavoured to show that to preserve and +increase the people, and to make their numbers useful, are methods conducing +to make us gainers in the balance of trade.<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +<br> +*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK, MANKIND AND POLITICAL ARITHMETIC ***<br> +<pre> + +******This file should be named mkpa10h.htm or mkpa10h.zip****** +Corrected EDITIONS of our EBooks get a new NUMBER, mkpa11h.htm +VERSIONS based on separate sources get new LETTER, mkpa10ah.htm + +Project Gutenberg eBooks are often created from several printed +editions, all of which are confirmed as Public Domain in the US +unless a copyright notice is included. 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