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diff --git a/40305-0.txt b/40305-0.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6c9ac72 --- /dev/null +++ b/40305-0.txt @@ -0,0 +1,8403 @@ +*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK 40305 *** + +Note: Project Gutenberg also has an HTML version of this + file which includes the original map. + See 40305-h.htm or 40305-h.zip: + (http://www.gutenberg.org/files/40305/40305-h/40305-h.htm) + or + (http://www.gutenberg.org/files/40305/40305-h.zip) + + + + + +PROBLEMS OF THE PACIFIC + +by + +FRANK FOX + +Author of "Ramparts of Empire" + + + + + + + +London +Williams & Norgate +14 Henrietta Street, Covent Garden +1912 + + + + +CONTENTS + + +CHAP. PAGE + + 1. THE OCEAN OF THE FUTURE 1 + + 2. RUSSIA IN THE PACIFIC 16 + + 3. THE RISE OF JAPAN 31 + + 4. CHINA AND THE TEEMING MILLIONS OF ASIA 47 + + 5. THE UNITED STATES--AN IMPERIAL POWER 66 + + 6. GREAT BRITAIN'S ENTRY INTO THE PACIFIC 85 + + 7. THE BRITISH CONTINENT IN THE PACIFIC 100 + + 8. NEW ZEALAND AND THE SMALLER BRITISH PACIFIC COLONIES 120 + + 9. THE NATIVE RACES 136 + + 10. LATIN AMERICA 147 + + 11. CANADA AND THE PACIFIC 165 + + 12. THE NAVIES OF THE PACIFIC 176 + + 13. THE ARMIES OF THE PACIFIC 186 + + 14. TREATIES IN THE PACIFIC 199 + + 15. THE PANAMA CANAL 216 + + 16. THE INDUSTRIAL POSITION IN THE PACIFIC 228 + + 17. SOME STRATEGICAL CONSIDERATIONS 245 + + 18. THE RIVALS 263 + +[Illustration] + + + + +PROBLEMS OF THE PACIFIC + + + + +CHAPTER I + +THE OCEAN OF THE FUTURE + + +The Pacific is the ocean of the future. As civilisation grows and +distances dwindle, man demands a larger and yet larger stage for the +fighting-out of the ambitions of races. The Mediterranean sufficed for +the settlement of the issues between the Turks and the Christians, +between the Romans and the Carthaginians, between the Greeks and the +Persians, and who knows what other remote and unrecorded struggles of +the older peoples of its littoral. Then the world became too great to be +kept in by the Pillars of Hercules, and Fleets--in the service alike of +peace and war--ranged over the Atlantic. The Mediterranean lost its +paramount importance, and dominance of the Atlantic became the test of +world supremacy. + +Now greater issues and greater peoples demand an even greater stage. On +the bosom of the Pacific will be decided, in peace or in war, the next +great struggle of civilisation, which will give as its prize the +supremacy of the world. Shall it go to the White Race or the Yellow +Race? If to the White Race, will it be under the British Flag, or the +flag of the United States, or of some other nation? That is the problem +of the Pacific. + +Since Cortes first looked on the waters of the ocean from a peak in +Darien, since Balboa of Castile waded into its waters and claimed them +for the dominion of the King of Castile, events have rushed forward with +bewildering haste to transfer the centre of the world's interest to the +Pacific. Cortes in his day looked to a North Pacific coast inhabited by +a few wandering Indians. (The powerful national organisation of Mexico +had not extended its influence as far as the Pacific coast.) Now there +stretch along that coast the Latin-American Power of Mexico, doomed, +probably, to be absorbed before the great issue of Pacific dominance is +decided, but having proved under Diaz some capacity for organisation; +the gigantic Power of the United States with the greatest resources of +wealth and material force ever possessed by a single nation of the +world; and the sturdy young Power of Canada. + +To the South, Cortes looked to a collection of Indian States, of which +Peru was the chief, boasting a gracious but unwarlike civilisation, +doomed to utter destruction at the hands of Spain. Now that stretch of +Pacific littoral is held by a group of Latin-American nations, the +possibilities of which it is difficult accurately to forecast, but which +are in some measure formidable if Chili is accepted as a standard by +which to judge, though, on the whole, they have shown so far but little +capacity for effective national organisation. + +Looking westward, Cortes in his day could see nothing but darkness. It +was surmised rather than known that there lay the Indies, the kingdoms +of the Cham of Tartary and the great Mogul, lands which showed on the +horizon of the imagination, half real, half like the fantasy of a +mirage. To-day the west coast of the Pacific is held by the European +Power of Russia; by the aspiring Asiatic Power of Japan, which within +half a century has forgotten the use of the bow and the fan in warfare +and hammered its way with modern weapons into the circle of the world's +great Powers; by China, stirring uneasily and grasping at the same +weapons which won greatness for Japan; by a far-flung advance guard of +the great Power of the United States in the Philippines, won +accidentally, held grimly; by England's lonely outposts, Australia and +New Zealand, where less than five millions of the British race hold a +territory almost as large as Europe. + +Sprinkled over the surface of the ocean, between East and West, are +various fortresses or trading stations, defending interests or arousing +cupidities. Germany and France are represented. The United States holds +Hawaii, the key to the Pacific coast of North America, either for +offence or defence. Great Britain has Fiji and various islets. The +Japanese Power stretches down towards the Philippines with the recent +acquisition of Formosa. + +Here are seen all the great actors in European rivalry. Added to them +are the new actors in world-politics, who represent the antagonism of +the Yellow Race to the White Race. Before all is dangled the greatest +temptation to ambition and cupidity. Who is master of the Pacific, who +has the control of its trade, the industrial leadership of its peoples, +the disposal of its warrior forces, will be master of the world. + +It is a problem not only of navies and armies (though with our present +defective civilisation these are the most important factors): it is a +problem also of populations and their growth, of industries, of the +development of natural resources, of trade and commerce. The Pacific +littoral is in part unpeopled, in part undeveloped, unorganised, +unappropriated. Its Asiatic portion must change, it is changing, from a +position which may be compared with that of Japan fifty years ago to a +position such as Japan's to-day. Its American and Australian portion +must develop power and wealth surpassing that of Europe. Under whose +leadership will the change be made? To discuss that question is the +purpose of this book: and at the outset the lines on which the +discussion will proceed and the conclusions which seem to be inevitable +may be foreshadowed. + +At one time Russia seemed destined to the hegemony of the Pacific. Yet +she was brought to the Pacific coast by accident rather than by design. +Her natural destiny was westward and southward rather than eastward, +though it was natural that she should slowly permeate the Siberian +region. As far back as the reign of Ivan the Terrible (the Elizabethan +epoch in Anglo-Saxon history), the curious celibate military +organisation of the Cossacks had won much of Siberia for the Czars. But +there was no dream then, nor at a very much later period, of penetration +to the Pacific. + +European jealousy of Russia, a jealousy which is explainable only with +the reflection that vast size naturally fills with awe the human mind, +stopped her advance towards the Mediterranean. In the north her ports +were useless in winter. In the south she was refused a development of +her territory which was to her mind natural and just. Thus thwarted, +Russia groped in a blind way from the Siberian provinces which had been +won by the Cossacks towards a warm-water port in Asia. At first the +movement was southward and filled England with alarm as to the fate of +India. Then it turned eastward, and in Manchuria and Corea this European +Power seemed to find its destiny. But Japan was able to impose an +effective check upon Russian ambitions in the Far East. At the present +moment Russia has been supplanted in control of the Asiatic seaboard by +Japan. + +Japan has everything but money to equip her for a bold bid for the +mastery of the Pacific before the completion of the Panama Canal. Europe +has taught to Japan, in addition to the material arts of warfare, a +cynical faith in the moral value, indeed, the necessity, of war to +national welfare. She considers that respect is only to be gained by +war: that war with a European nation is an enterprise of small risk: +that in short her experience with the Russian Fleet was fairly typical +of war with any European Power. She believes that she has the most +thoroughly efficient army and navy, considering their size, in the +world; and has much to justify the belief. + +This ambition and the warlike confidence of Japan constitute to-day a +more important factor in the problem of the Pacific than her actual +fighting strength. But the check to prompt decisive action on her part +is that of poverty. Japan is very poor. The last war, in spite of great +gain of prestige, brought no gain of money. Its cost bled her veins +white, and there was no subsequent transfusion in the shape of a Russian +indemnity. Nor are the natural resources of Japan such as to hold out +much hope of a quick industrial prosperity. She has few minerals. Her +soil is in the bulk wretchedly poor. From the territories control of +which she has won in battle--Manchuria and Corea--she will reap some +advantage by steadily ignoring the "open door" obligation in trade, and +by dispossessing the native peasantry. But it cannot be very great. +There is no vast natural wealth to be exploited. The native peasantry +can be despoiled and evicted, but the booty is trifling and the cost of +the process not inconsiderable since even the Corean will shoot from his +last ditch. + +Japan is now seeking desperately a material prosperity by industrial +expansion. A tariff and bounty system, the most rigid and scientific the +world knows, aims to make the country a great textile-weaving, +ship-building, iron-making country. The smallest scrap of an industry is +sedulously nurtured, and Japanese matches, Japanese soap, Japanese beer, +penetrate to the markets of the outer world as evidence of the ambition +of the people to be manufacturers. But when one explores down to +bedrock, the only real bases for industrial prosperity in Japan are a +supply of rather poor coal and a great volume of cheap labour. The +second is of some value in cheap production, but it is yet to be found +possible to build up national prosperity on the sole basis of cheap +labour. Further, with the growth of modernity in Japan, there is +naturally a labour movement. Doctrines of Socialism are finding +followers: strikes are heard of occasionally. The Japanese artisan and +coolie may not be content to slave unceasingly on wages which deny life +all comfort, to help a method of national aggrandisement the purport of +which they can hardly understand. + +The position of Japan in the Pacific has to be considered, therefore, in +the light of the future rather than of the present. At the time of the +conclusion of the war with Russia it seemed supreme. Since then it has +steadily deteriorated. If she had succeeded in the realisation of her +ambition to undertake the direction of China's military and industrial +reorganisation, the Japanese Power would have been firmly established +for some generations at least. But the defects in her national character +prevented that. Inspiring no confidence among the Chinese, the Japanese +found all attempts at peaceful assumption of a controlling influence in +China checked by sullen antipathy; and a forced assumption would not +have been tolerated by Europe. It will not be found possible, on a full +survey of the facts, to credit Japan with the power to hold a supreme +place in the Pacific. She is, even now, among the dwindling Powers. + +China, on the other hand, has the possibilities of a mighty future. +To-day she is in the throes of nation-birth. To-morrow she may unbind +her feet and prepare to join in the race for supremacy. The bringing of +China into the current of modern life will not be an easy task, but it +is clearly not an impossible one. Before the outbreak of the present +Revolution (which may place China among the democratic Republics of the +world), the people of the Celestial Empire had begun to reconsider +seriously their old attitude of intolerance towards European +civilisation. To understand fully the position of China it is necessary +to keep in mind the fact that the actual Chinese nation, some +400,000,000 of people, enervated as were the Peruvians of South America, +by a system of theocratic and pacific Socialism, were subjected about +250 years ago to the sovereignty of the Manchus, a warrior race from the +Steppes. Since then the Manchus have governed China, tyrannously, +incompetently, on the strength of a tradition of military superiority +stronger far than the _Raj_ by which the British have held India. But +the Manchus--in numbers and in intellect far inferior to the +Chinese--forgot in time their military enterprise and skill. The +tradition of it, however, remained until the events of the nineteenth +and twentieth centuries showed that the Manchu military power was +contemptible not only against the white foreigner, but also against the +Japanese _parvenu_. Patient China, finding her tyrant to be a weak +despot, revolts now, not only against the Manchu dynasty, but also +against the Conservatism which has kept her from emulating Japan's +success in the world. + +At present the power of China in the Pacific is negligible. In the +future it may be the greatest single force in that ocean. Almost +certainly it may be reckoned to take the place of Japan as the chief +Asiatic factor. + +Japan and China having been considered, the rest of Asia is negligible +as affecting the destiny of the Pacific except in so far as India can +serve as basis of action for British power. An independent Indian nation +is hardly one of the possibilities of the future. Religious, racial, and +caste distinctions make a united, independent India at present +impossible. Unless the British Power carries too far a tendency to +conciliate the talking tribes of the Hindoo peninsula at the expense of +the fighting tribes, it should hold India by right of a system of +government which is good though not perfect, and by reason of the +impossibility of suggesting any substitute. In the event of a failure of +the British Power, India would still, in all probability, fail to take a +place among the great nations of the earth. Either she would fall a +victim to some other nation or relapse into the condition, near to +anarchy, which was hers before the coming of the Europeans. + +It is not possible to imagine to-day any European Power other than Great +Britain--with the possible exception of Russia--becoming strongly +established in the Pacific. France and Germany have footholds certainly. +But in neither case is the territory held by them possible of great +development, and in neither case is there a chain of strategic stations +to connect the Pacific colony with the Mother Country. The despatch of +the German "mailed fist" to Kiao-Chou in China some years ago is still +remembered as one of the comic rather than the serious episodes of +history. The squadron bearing to the Chinese the martial threat of the +German Emperor had to beg its way from one British coaling station to +another because of the lack of German ports. + +The influence of South America in the Pacific need not yet be +calculated. It is a possible far-future factor in the problem; and the +completion of Trans-Andine railways may quickly enhance the importance +of Chili and Peru. But for the present South America can take no great +part in the Pacific struggle. + +It is when British influence and American influence in the Pacific come +to be considered that the most important factors in the contest for its +supremacy enter upon the stage. Let us consider, for the nonce, the two +Powers separately. + +The British Empire--holding Australia and New Zealand with an audacious +but thin garrison; having a long chain of strategic stations such as +Hong Kong and Singapore; having in India a powerful rear base for +supplies; holding a great part of the North-West Coast of America with a +population as yet scanty but beginning to develop on the same lines as +the Australasian people--is clearly well situated to win and to hold the +mastery of the Pacific. Such mastery would have to be inspired with +peaceful ideals; it could not survive as an aggressive force. It is +indeed the main strength of the British position in the Pacific that it +is naturally anxious, not for a disturbance but for a preservation of +the present state of things, which gives to the British Empire all that +a reasonable ambition could require. It is wise and easy to be peaceable +when one has all the best of the spoils. + +For a secure British mastery of the Pacific, India would need to be held +with the military assistance of South Africa and Australia, and made a +great naval base; Australia and New Zealand would need to be populated +seriously; Canada would need to be guarded against absorption by the +United States and its new population kept as far as possible to the +British type; the friendship and co-operation of the United States would +need to be sought. + +Turning next to the United States it will be recognised that she has in +a realised form all the force and wealth possible to an organised China +or a fully developed Australia. She has one hundred million people, who +have reached the highest stage of civilised organisation. Their material +wealth--and wealth counts for much in modern war--is almost +incalculable. Their national ambition has never been checked by defeat. +Lately it has been fed with foreign war and territorial conquest and it +has found the taste good. The American people face the future possessed +of all the material for a policy of aggressive Imperialism and with a +splendidly youthful faith in their own good motives, a faith which can +justify an action better than any degree of cynicism. There is as much +of the "old Adam" in them as in the peoples of any of the "effete +monarchies," and many circumstances seem to point to them as anxious to +take the lead among the White Races in the future. + +As regards the Pacific, American ambition is clear. The United States +holds the Philippines at great expense of treasure and blood. She is +fortifying Honolulu, with the idea of making it a naval base "stronger +than Gibraltar."[1] She is cutting the Panama Canal and fortifying the +entrances with the probable purpose of giving to the United States a +monopoly of that gateway in time of war. With splendid audacity the +American despises secrecy in regard to his future plans. In New York +Naval Yard three years ago I was informed, with an amplitude of detail +that was convincing, of the United States' scheme for patrolling the +whole Pacific with her warships when the Canal had been finished. + +Supposing, then, the United States to continue her present industrial +and commercial progress; supposing her to gradually tighten her hold on +the rest of the American continent; supposing her to overcome certain +centrifugal forces now at work, the problem of the Pacific, should the +United States decide to play a "lone hand," will be solved. It will +become an American lake, probably after a terrible struggle in which the +pretensions of the Yellow Races will be shattered, possibly after +another fratricidal struggle in which the British possessions in the +Pacific, Australia, and New Zealand, equally with Canada, will be forced +to obedience. + +But is there any necessity to consider the United States and the British +Empire as playing mutually hostile parts in the Pacific? They have been +the best of friends there in the past. They have many good reasons to +remain friends in the future. A discussion as to whether the Pacific +Ocean is destined to be controlled by the American or by the British +Power could be reasonably ended with the query: Why not by an +Anglo-Celtic union representing both? + +An Anglo-Celtic alliance embracing Great Britain, the United States and +the British Dominions, would settle in the best way the problem of the +Pacific. No possible combination, Asiatic, European, or Asia-European, +could threaten its position. But there are certain difficulties in the +way, which will be discussed later. For the present, it has only to be +insisted that both Powers are potential rather than actual masters of +the Pacific. Neither in the case of Great Britain nor of the United +States is a great Pacific force at the moment established. After her +treaty with Japan, Great Britain abandoned for a while the idea of +maintaining any serious naval strength in the Pacific. The warships she +maintained there, on the Australian station and elsewhere, had no +fighting value against modern armaments, and were kept in the Pacific as +a step towards the scrap-heap. That policy has since been reversed, and +the joint efforts of Great Britain, Australia, and New Zealand directed +towards re-establishing British Pacific naval strength. At the +moment, however, the actual British naval force in the Pacific is +inconsiderable, if obsolete or obsolescent vessels are ruled out of +consideration. The United States also has no present naval force in the +Pacific that could contest the issue with even a fraction of the +Japanese navy. Clearly, too, she has no intention of attempting the +organisation of a powerful Pacific Fleet separate from her Atlantic +Fleet, but aims at the bolder policy of holding her interests in both +oceans by one great Fleet which will use the Panama Canal to mobilise at +an emergency in either. + +If the resources of the present with their probable growth in the future +are taken into account, Great Britain and the United States will appear +as massing enormous naval and military forces in the Pacific. The +preponderance of naval force will be probably on the side of the United +States for very many years--since it is improbable that Great Britain +will ever be able to detach any great proportion of her Fleet from +European waters and her Pacific naval force will be comprised mainly of +levies from Australia and New Zealand, and possibly Canada, India, and +South Africa. The preponderance of military force will be probably on +the side of Great Britain, taking into count the citizen armies of +Australia and New Zealand (and possibly of Canada) and the great forces +available in India. Complete harmony between Great Britain and the +United States in the Pacific would thus give the hegemony of the ocean +to the Anglo-Saxon race. Rivalry between them might lead to another +result. In the natural course of events that "other result" might be +Asiatic dominion in one form or another. + +These factors in Pacific rivalry will be discussed in detail in the +following chapters. + +FOOTNOTES: + +[1] Since the above was written it is reported that the United States +has taken possession of Palmyra Island--once a British possession--to +the south of Honolulu, obviously for strategic purposes. + + + + +CHAPTER II + +RUSSIA IN THE PACIFIC + + +Russia, for generations the victim of Asia, when at last she had won to +national greatness, was impelled by pressure from the West rather than +by a sense of requital to turn back the tide of invasion. That pressure +from the West was due to a misunderstanding in which Great Britain led +the way, and which the late Lord Salisbury happily described when he +stated that England "had backed the wrong horse" in opposing Russia and +in aiding Turkey against her. + +Russia, because she broke Napoleon's career of victory by her power of +resistance, a power which was founded on a formlessness of national life +rather than a great military strength, was credited by Europe with a +fabulous might. Properly understood, the successful Russian resistance +to the greatest of modern captains was akin to that of an earthwork +which absorbs the sharpest blows of artillery and remains unmoved, +almost unharmed. But it was misinterpreted, and a mental conception +formed of the Russian earthwork as a mobile, aggressive force eager to +move forward and to overwhelm Europe. Russia's feat of beating back the +tide of Napoleonic invasion was merely the triumph of a low biological +type of national organism. Yet it inspired Europe with a mighty fear. +The "Colossus of the North" came into being to haunt every Chancellery. + +Nowhere was the fear felt more acutely than in Great Britain. It is a +necessary consequence of the British Imperial expansion of the past, an +expansion that came about very often in spite of the Mother Country's +reluctance and even hostility, that Great Britain must now always view +with distrust, with suspicion, that country which is the greatest of the +European Continental Powers for the time being, whether it be France, +Russia, or Germany. If British foreign policy is examined carefully it +will be found to have been based on that guiding principle for many +generations. Whatever nation appears to aim at a supreme position in +Europe must be confronted by Great Britain. + +Sometimes British statesmen, following instinctively a course which was +set for them by force of circumstances, have not recognised the real +reason of their actions. They have imagined that there was some ethical +warrant for the desire for a European "balance of power." They have seen +in the malignant disposition of whatever nation was the greatest Power +in Europe for the time being a just prompting to arrange restraining +coalitions, to wage crippling wars. But the truth is that the British +race, with so much that is desirable of the earth under its flag, with +indeed almost all the good empty lands in its keeping, must be jealous +of the next European Power. On the other hand, every growing Power in +Europe must look with envy on the rich claim which one prospector, and +that one not the earliest, has pegged out in the open fields of the +world. Thus between Great Britain and the next European Power in rank +there is always a mutual jealousy. The growing Power is credited with a +desire to seize the rich lands of the British Empire; and generally has +the desire. The holding Power is apprehensive of every step forward of +any rival, seeing in it a threat to her Empire's security. There is such +a thing in this world as being too rich to be comfortable. That is Great +Britain's national position. + +Thus when the power of France was broken and Napoleon was safely shut up +in St Helena, the British nation, relieved of one dread, promptly found +another. Russia was credited with designs on India. She was supposed to +be moving south towards the Mediterranean, and her object in seeking to +be established there was obviously to challenge British naval supremacy, +and to capture British overseas colonies. British diplomacy devoted +itself sternly to the task of checkmating Russia. Russia, the big +blundering amorphous nation, to whom England had given, some generations +before, early promptings to national organisation, and who now sprawled +clumsily across Europe groping for a way out of her ice-chains towards +a warm-water port, became the traditional enemy of the British Empire. + +This idea of Russian rivalry grew to be an obsession. The melodramas of +the British people had for their favourite topic the odious cruelty of +Russian tyranny. If a submarine cable to a British colony were +interrupted, or a quarry explosion startled the air, the colonists at +once turned their thoughts to a Russian invasion, and mobilised their +volunteers. Colonists of this generation can remember the thrills of +early childhood, when more than once they "prepared for the Russians," +and the whole force of some hundreds of volunteers and cadets determined +to sell their lives dearly on the battlefield to keep Russian knouts +from the backs of their womenfolk, it being seriously considered that +the Russian always celebrated a victory by a general knouting. + +Not until the idea of Russia establishing a hegemony over Europe had +been dissipated by the Russo-Japanese War did British statesmanship +really discover qualities of good neighbourliness in the Russian. But by +that time the main direction of Russian expansion had been definitely +settled as eastward instead of southward. Perhaps this was to the +ultimate advantage of civilisation, even though the decision left the +Hellenic peninsula in the grip of the Turk, for it pushed the buffer +territory between Europe and Asia far forward into Asia. Should an +Asiatic Power, with revived militancy, ever seek again the conquest of +Europe, as Asiatic Powers have done before this, the war must commence +in Manchuria, and not on the plains below the Ural Mountains. + +The position which Russia has occupied as a buffer state between Asia +and Europe has kept her back in the ranks of the army of civilisation. +Not only has she had to suffer the first of the savage blows which Asian +hordes have from time to time aimed at Europe, but also she has had to +endure Asiatic additions to her population, reducing the standard of her +race. + +The instinct against race-mixture which Nature has implanted in man is +the great safeguard of the work of evolution to a higher type. The White +Race, having developed on certain lines to a position which promises, if +it does not fulfil, the evolution of a yet higher type, has an +instinctive repugnance to mixing its blood with peoples in other stages +of evolution. It is this instinct, this transcendental instinct, which +is responsible for the objection to miscegenation in the United States, +and for the lynchings by which that objection is impressed upon the +negro mind. The same instinct is at the back of the "White Australia" +laws, forbidding coloured people any right of entry into Australia. + +It is not difficult to argue from a point of view of Christian religion +and humanity against an instinct which finds its extreme, but yet its +logical, expression in the burning of some negro offender at the stake. +But all the arguments in the world will not prevail against Nature. Once +a type has won a step up it must be jealous and "selfish," and even +brutal in its scorn of lower types; or must climb down again. This may +not be good ethics, but it is Nature. Russian backwardness in +civilisation to-day is a living proof that the scorn of the coloured man +is a necessary condition of the progress of the White Man's +civilisation. + +But the race-mixture which was of evil to Russia has been of benefit to +the rest of Europe. To borrow a metaphor from modern preventive +medicine, the Russian marches between Europe and Asia have had their +power of resistance to Yellow invasion strengthened by the infusion of +some Yellow blood. + +A land of high steppes, very cold in winter, very hot in summer, and of +great forests, which were difficult to traverse except where the rivers +had cut highways, Russia was never so tempting to the early European +civilisations as to lead to her area being definitely occupied and held +as a province. Neither Greek nor Roman attempted much colonisation in +Russia. By general consent the country was left to be a No-Man's-Land +between Asia and Europe. Alexander, whose army penetrated through to +India and actually brought back news of the existence of Australia, +never marched far north into the interior of Russia. There the mixed +tribes of Finns, Aryans, Semites, Mongols held a great gloomy country +influenced little by civilisation, but often temporarily submerged by +waves of barbarians from the Asiatic steppes. Still Western Europe in +time made some little impression on the Russian mass. Byzantine culture +impressed its mark on the Southern Slavs; Roman culture, after filtering +through Germany, reached the Lithuanians of the north. In the twelfth +century we hear of Arabian caravans making their way as far as the +Baltic in search of amber. + +But more important to the Russian civilisation was the advent of the +Normans in the ninth century. They consolidated White Russia during the +ninth to the thirteenth centuries, appeared as warriors before the walls +of Byzantium, and learned the Christian faith from the priests of the +Eastern communion. (Russia has since been faithful always to the Greek +Church.) That period was rich in national heroes, such as Rurik, Simeon +and Truvor, and definitely set the current of Russian national life +towards a place in the European family of nations. By the thirteenth +century the White Russians, with their capital established at Moscow, +were able to withstand for a while a new Mongol invasion. But they could +not prevent Gengis Khan's lieutenants establishing themselves on the +lower Volga, and the Grand Prince of Moscow had to be content to become +a suzerain of the Grand Khan of Tartary. + +For three centuries Russia now, amid many troubles, prepared herself to +take a place amongst European Powers. She was still more or less subject +to the Asiatic. But she was not Asiatic, and her vast area stood between +Europe and Asia and allowed the more Western nations to grow up free +from interference from any Eastern people, except in the case of the +great invasion of the Turks coming up from the south-east. How great was +the service that Russia unconsciously did to civilisation during those +centuries! If the Tartar had come with the Turk, or had followed him, +the White Races and their civilisation might have been swept away. + +After being the bulwark of Europe for centuries Russia at last found her +strength and became the avenger of the White Races. By the sixteenth +century the Russian power had been consolidated under the Muscovite +Czars, and a great nation, of which the governing class was altogether +European, began to push back the Asiatic. From the sixteenth to the +nineteenth centuries the Russian Power grew. The natural direction of +expansion was southward. The new nation wanted a place in the sun, and +looked longingly towards the Mediterranean. Only the Turk stood in the +path, and for the Russian Czars war with the Turk had something of a +religious attraction. It was the Cross against the Crescent. It was the +champion of the Greek Church winning back the Byzantine Empire to +Christian domination. + +For Russia to march south, driving the infidel from Europe, freeing the +Greeks, establishing herself in Constantinople, winning warm-water ports +and warm-climate fields, seemed to the Russian mind a national policy +which served both God and Mammon. That it served God was no slight thing +to the Russian people. They, then as now, cherished a simplicity and a +strenuousness of faith which may be called "superstitious" or +"beautiful and childlike" as the observer may wish, but which is +undoubtedly sincere. "There has been only one Christian," wrote Heine. +If he had known the Russians he would have qualified the gibe. They have +a real faith, and it is an important factor in the making of their +national policy which has to be taken into account. + +How much there was of religious impulse and how much of mere +materialistic national ambition in Russia's move southward did not in +the least concern other European Powers. Whatever its motive they +considered the development dangerous. It threatened to give the Russian +an overwhelming power, a paramountcy in Europe, and that could not be +tolerated even if it had the most worthy of motives. Above all, Great +Britain was alarmed. In the days of Elizabeth Great Britain had been a +very good friend to Russia. But Russia was then no possible rival either +on land or on the high seas. In the days of Victoria the position had +changed. Russia still wore the laurels of her "victories" over Napoleon. +She was credited with being the greatest military Power in the world, +and credited also with a relentless and Machiavellian diplomacy that +added vastly to the material resources of her armies and fleets. + +The Crimean War, with its resulting humiliating restrictions on Russian +power in the Black Sea, taught Russia that Europe was determined to +block her path south and preferred to buttress Turkish misrule than to +permit Russian expansion. Baffled but still restless, Russia turned +east and marched steadily towards the Pacific, with a side glance at the +Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, which caused Great Britain fresh +apprehension as to the fate of India. + +The progress of the Russian Power in Asia throughout the nineteenth +century and its sudden check at the dawn of the twentieth century make +one of the most dramatic chapters of the world's history. European +rivalry had followed Russia on her march across Siberia, and the British +Power in particular was alarmed to see the "Colossus of the North" with +a naval base in the Pacific. Alarm was deepened when, after reaching the +waters of the Pacific, Russia turned south, again eager for a warm-water +port. At the time China seemed to be on the verge of dissolution as a +national entity, and it seemed as though Russia were destined to win a +great Asiatic Empire beside which even India would be a poor prize. In +1885 Great Britain nearly went to war with Russia in the defence of the +integrity of Corea. + +But the decisive check to Russia was to come from another source. The +time had arrived for Asia to reassert some of her old warlike might. The +island power of Japan, having shaken off the cumbrous and useless armour +of medievalism, set herself sturdily in the path of modern progress and +aspired to a place among the great nations of the earth. Japan saw +clearly that Russia was the immediate enemy and prepared for a decisive +war, with an uncanny determinedness and a scrupulous attention to every +detail. Vast military and naval armaments had to be prepared. The +necessary money had to be wrung from a bitterly poor population or +borrowed at usurious rates. The political art with which that was done +was not the least wonderful part of a great national achievement. +Then--the weapons of war forged--it seemed good to Japanese +statesmanship to flesh them on an easy victim. It fell to China's lot to +teach the Japanese confidence in their new warlike arts, and to pay in +the shape of an indemnity something towards the cost of the great +struggle which Japan contemplated. + +Had Russia had that relentless and Machiavellian diplomacy with which +she used to be credited, she would never have permitted the Japanese +attack upon China. Constituting herself the champion of China, she would +at one stroke have pushed back the growing power of Japan and +established a claim to some suzerainty over the Celestial Empire. In +carrying out her plans Japan had to take this chance, of Russia coming +on top of her when she attacked China. She took the chance and won. +Russia would have had to take the chance of a great European upheaval if +she had interfered in the Japo-Chinese struggle. She did not take the +chance, and allowed her rival to arm at China's expense to meet her. + +The Chinese war finished, Japan, equipped with a full war-chest, a +veteran army and navy, was now ready to meet Russia. But she was faced +by the difficulty that in meeting Russia she might also have to meet a +European coalition, or the almost equally dangerous eventuality of a +veto on the war on the part of the United States. Japan was convinced of +her ability to fight Russia single-handed. Probably she would, in the +last event, have decided to take the risks of any coalition and enter +upon the war, since she had to fight Russia or perish as an expanding +Power. But she determined in the first instance to attempt to obtain a +safeguarding alliance. + +There are indications that Japan had in the first instance thoughts of +the United States, of Germany and of Great Britain, as alternative +allies. She thought of the United States because of her great financial +strength, her appreciable naval power in the Pacific, and her likely +value in keeping Great Britain out of the ring: of Germany because of +her military power on the Russian frontier; of Great Britain because of +her overwhelming naval power. Some held that Great Britain was only +approached in the second place. Whether that were so or not, the British +Power proved favourable. + +Japan was lucky in the moment of her approach. It had become obvious at +that time to British statesmanship that the old ideal of "splendid +isolation" was no longer tenable. The British Empire needed alliances, +or at least safeguarding understandings with other nations. But it +almost seemed as though the knowledge had come too late. Apparently +there were no European friendships offering. Japan thus found Great +Britain in a somewhat anxious mood, and an alliance was concluded +between the Power which had hitherto followed a policy of splendid +isolation and the _parvenu_ Power of the Far East. Japan was now all +ready, and Russia was doomed to be ousted from her position as a great +Power in the Pacific. + +A great deal of nonsense has been written and accepted as true +concerning the war between Japan and Russia. Throughout the course of +that war the Japanese took the best of care to put their own view of the +case before the world. The "wonderful heroism," "the marvellous +strategical and tactical skill," "the perfect medical and transport +arrangements" of the Japanese forces received something more than their +fair share of praise, because of the intelligent and perspicuous +industry of the Japanese publicity agencies. The Japanese conducted a +fine campaign. Their generals and admirals followed the best models in +their dispositions. Both in the movements and in the sanitary regulation +of the troops, the commanders were much helped by the habit of +discipline of a nation inured to yield blind obedience to a god-born +ruler. Still there was no inspired genius for war shown by the Japanese. +Their movements were copied from the books. A well-led White army of +much less strength would, I believe, have driven them ultimately from +Corea into the sea. Their seeming want of power of original thought and +their reliance on routine made their movements slow and flabby. They won +by the inferiority of the enemy rather than by a great genius for +warfare. + +The Russians on their side fought under the dispiriting conditions of +having a well-trained enemy in front and a revolution behind. The heart +of the nation was not with them, and the Russian autocracy was hampered +at every turn by the internal disorders of European Russia. It seems +probable that the autocracy hoped to solve in part a double problem by +the mischievous ingenuity of drafting as many as possible of the +discontented at home to the war abroad. That helped things in Russia, +but added to the difficulties of the generals in Manchuria. Withal, the +Russians put up a good fight. The early engagements were but rearguard +actions, the Japanese having an enormous superiority of force, and the +Russians striving to delay rather than to arrest their advance. It was +not until Mukden that the single line of railway to Russia had brought +General Kouropatkin a fair equality of force: and he had to contend then +with the tradition of retreat which had been perforce established in his +army, and with the growing paralysis of his home government confronted +by a great revolutionary movement. Even so, Mukden was a defeat and not +a rout. + +It is necessary to keep in mind these facts in order to arrive at a +sound conclusion as to the future position of Russia in the Pacific. It +is not safe to rule her out of the reckoning altogether. A second war, +waged by a united Russia against Japan, would probably have a far +different result, and would drive Japan off the Asiatic mainland were +the ring to be kept clear. For the present, however, Russia is a Power +with a great territory washed by the Pacific Ocean, but with no decisive +voice in its destinies. + + + + +CHAPTER III + +THE RISE OF JAPAN + + +The misfortune of success has never been better exemplified in the +world's history than in the results which have followed from the White +Man's attempt to arouse Japan to an appreciation of the blessings of +European civilisation. Our fathers and grandfathers of the middle +nineteenth century battered at the barred and picturesque doors of the +land of the Mikado with a vague idea that there was plunder, trade or +some other tangible benefit to be got from dragging the quaint Yellow +Recluse out of his retirement. Without a foreboding, every civilised +Power that had a fighting ship and the time to spare, took some part in +urging Japan to awake and be modern. A great deal of gunpowder was +burned before the little Asiatic nation stirred. Then she seemed in a +flash to learn the whole lesson of our combative civilisation. Naval +strategy; the forging of trade-marks; military organisation; +appreciation of the value of cheap labour and of machinery in industry; +aseptic surgery; resolute and cunning diplomacy--all these were suddenly +added to the mental equipment of an Asiatic people, and all used in +reprisal against Europe. To-day Japan is the greatest warrior Power in +the Pacific, and is also a powerful factor in that war for markets which +is not the least important manifestation of race rivalry. As sailors, +soldiers, merchants and factory hands, the Japanese are unmistakably +awake. + +With a discipline impossible of achievement by a European race, the +Japanese people pursued the methods of eclectic philosophy in their +nation-making. They copied the best from the army systems of Germany and +France: duplicated the British naval discipline: adopted what they +thought most efficient of the industrial machinery of Europe and +America, including a scientific tariff. Nothing that seemed likely to be +of advantage was neglected. Even the question of religion was seriously +considered, and these awakened people were at one time on the point of a +simultaneous national adoption of some form of Christianity. But they +were convinced on reflection that nothing of Europe's success in this +world was due to religion; and, unconcerned for the moment with anything +that was not of this world, decided to forbear from "scrapping" +Shintoism and sending it to the rubbish heap where reposed the +two-handled sword of the Sumarai.[10] + +This miracle of the complete transformation of a race has been +accomplished in half a century. Within the memory of some living people +the Japanese were content with a secluded life on their hungry islands, +where they painted dainty pictures, wove quaint and beautiful fabrics, +cultivated children and flowers in a spirit of happy artistry, and +pursued war among themselves as a sport, with enthusiasm certainly, but +without any excessive cruelty, if consideration be given to Asiatic +ideas of death and the Asiatic degree of sensitiveness to torture. They +were without any ideas of foreign conquest. The world had no respect for +Japan then. Specimens of Japanese painting and pottery were admired by a +few connoisseurs in little corners of the world (such as Bond Street, +London), and that was all. Now, Japan having learned the art of modern +warfare, we know also that the Japanese are great artists, great +philosophers, great poets. Of a sudden a nation has jumped from being +naturally chosen as the most absurd and harmless vehicle for a Gilbert +satire to that of being "the honoured ally" of Great Britain, in respect +to whose susceptibilities that satire should be suppressed. + +But our belated respect for the artistry of the Japanese gives little, +if any, explanation of the miracle of their sudden transformation. The +Chinese are greater artists, greater philosophers, superior +intellectually and physically. They heard at an even earlier date the +same harsh summons from Europe to wake up. But it was neglected, and, +whatever the outcome of the revolutionary movement now progressing, the +Chinese are not yet a Power to be taken into present consideration as +regards the Pacific Ocean or world-politics generally. The most patient +search gives no certain guidance as to the causes of Japan's sudden +advance to a position amongst the world's great nations. If we could +accurately determine those causes it would probably give a valuable clue +to the study of the psychology of races. But the effort is in vain. An +analogy is often drawn between the Japanese and the British. Except that +both were island races, there are few points of resemblance. The British +islands, inhabited originally by the Gauls, had their human stock +enriched from time to time by the Romans, the Danes, the Teutons, the +Normans. The British type, in part Celtic, in part Roman, in part +Danish, in part Anglo-Saxon, in part Norman, was naturally a +hard-fighting, stubborn, adventurous race fitted for the work of +exploration and colonisation. + +But the Japanese had, so far as can be ascertained, little advantage +from cross-breeding. Probably they were originally a Tartar race. The +primitive inhabitants of the islands were ancestors of the Hairy Ainus, +who still survive in small numbers. Like the aboriginals of Australia, +the Ainus were a primitive rather than a degraded type, closely allied +to the ancestors of the European races. Probably the Tartar invaders who +colonised Japan came by way of Corea. But after their advent there was +no new element introduced to give the human race in Japan a fresh +stimulus; and that original Tartar stock, though vigorous and warlike, +has never proved elsewhere any great capacity for organisation. + +In the sixth century of the Christian Era, Chinese civilisation and the +Buddhistic religion came to the Japanese, who at the time had about the +same standard of culture as the Red Indians of the American continent +when the _Mayflower_ sailed. For some four centuries the Japanese island +race was tributary to China, and during that time there was evolved a +national religion, Shintoism, which probably represented the old Tartar +faith modified by Chinese philosophy. In the eighth and subsequent +centuries, Japan in its national organisation very closely resembled +feudal Europe. As in Europe, there was a service tenure for the land; a +system by which organised groups, or KO's, became answerable +collectively for the deeds of each member of the group; and, as in +feudal Europe, Church and State made rival claims to supreme power. + +Indiscriminate fighting between rival feudal lords, a constant strife +between the Shoguns, representing the priestly power, and the Mikados, +representing the civil power, make up the islands' history for century +after century. Through it all there is no gleam of light on the +evolution of the latent powers which were to come to maturity, as in an +hour, during the nineteenth century. Japan appeared to be an average +example of a semi-civilised country which would never evolve to a much +higher state because of the undisciplined quarrelsomeness of its people. + +In the sixteenth century Europe first made the acquaintance of Japan. +Italian, Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish, British traders and explorers +visited the country. St Francis Xavier established missions there and +baptized many in the Christian faith. After two centuries of general +toleration, with intervals of welcome and yet other intervals of +resolute massacre, in 1741 the last of the Europeans were ordered out of +the islands, the Japanese having decided that they wanted neither the +religion, the trade, nor the friendship of the White Man. The same +prohibitions were applied at the same time to Chinese traders. A +resolute policy of exclusiveness was adopted. + +Japan seems to have learned absolutely nothing from her first contact +with European civilisation. She settled down to the old policy of +rigorous exclusiveness, and to a renewal of her tribal and religious +warfare, in the midst of which, like a strange flower in a rocky cleft, +flourished a dainty æstheticism. The nineteenth century thus dawned on +Japan, a bitterly poor country, made poorer by the devotion of much of +her energies to internal warfare and by the devotion of some of her +scanty supply of good land to the cultivation of flowers instead of +grain. The observer of the day could hardly have imagined more +unpromising material for the making of the modern Japanese nation, +organised with Spartan thoroughness for naval, military and industrial +warfare. + +The United States in 1853 led the way in the successful attempt of White +civilisation to open up trade relations with Japan. The method was +rude; and it was followed by resolute offers of "friendship," backed by +armed threats, from Great Britain, France, Russia and Portugal. The +Japanese wanted none of them. The feeling of the people was distinctly +anti-foreign. They wished to be left to their flowers and their family +feuds. But the White Man insisted. In 1864 a combination of Powers +forced the Straits of Shimonoseki. The Japanese were compelled by these +and other outrages to a feeling of national unity. In the face of a +foreign danger domestic feuds were forgotten. By 1869 Japan had +organised her policy on a basis which has kept internal peace ever since +(with the exception of the revolt of the Satsuma in 1884), and she had +resolved on fighting out with Russia the issue of supremacy in the +Pacific. Within a quarter of a century the new nation had established +herself as a Power by the sensational defeat, on land and sea, of China. +The Peace of Shimonoseki extended her territory to Formosa and the +Pescadores, and filled her treasury with the great war indemnity of +£57,000,000. She then won, too, a footing on the Asiatic mainland, but +was for the time being cheated of that by the interference of Europe, an +interference which was not repeated when, later, having defeated Russia +in war and having won an alliance with Great Britain, she finally +annexed Corea. + +From the Peace of Shimonoseki in 1895 the progress of Japan has been +marvellous. In 1900 she appeared as one of the civilised Powers which +invaded China with a view to impress upon that Empire the duty a +semi-civilised Power owed to the world of maintaining internal order. In +1902 she entered into a defensive and offensive alliance with Great +Britain, by which she was guaranteed a ring clear from interference on +the part of a European combination in the struggle with Russia which she +contemplated. The treaty was a triumph of diplomatic wisdom. Appearing +to get little, Japan in real truth got all that her circumstances +required. A treaty binding Great Britain to come to her aid in any war +would have been hopeless to ask for, and not very useful when obtained, +for the Japanese attack on Russia might then have been the signal for a +general European war in which possibly a European combination would have +crippled Great Britain and then turned its united attention to the +destruction of Japan's nascent power. A treaty which kept the ring clear +for a single-handed struggle with Russia was better than that risk. In +return Japan gave nothing in effect except a pledge to make war on her +own immediate enemy, Russia, for the assistance of Great Britain if +necessity arose. + +The conditions created by the Anglo-Japanese treaty of 1902 developed +naturally to the Battle of Mukden, the culminating point of a campaign +in which for the first time for many years the Yellow Race vanquished +the White Race in war. That Battle of Mukden not only established +Japan's position in the world. It made the warlike awakening of China +inevitable, and restored to the daylight again the long-hidden yet +always existing arrogance of Asia. Asia has ever nurtured an insolence +beside which any White Race pride is insignificant. That fact is made +patent during recurring epochs of history. The Persian Darius sent to +the Greeks for earth and water, symbols to acknowledge that "Persia +ruled the land and the oceans." The Huns later looked upon the White Men +whom they conquered as something lower than animals. The Turks, another +great Asiatic race to war against Europe, could compare the White Man +only to that unclean beast, the dog. The first European ambassadors who +went to China were forced to crawl with abject humility to the feet of +the Chinese dignitaries. In his secret heart--of which the European mind +knows so little--the Asiatic, whether he be Japanese, Chinese, or +Indian, holds a deep disdain for the White. The contempt we feel for +them is returned more than one hundredfold. + +Mukden brought that disdain out of its slumber. The battle was therefore +an event of history more important than any since the fall of +Constantinople. For very many years the European hegemony had been +unquestioned. True, as late as 1795, Napoleon is credited with having +believed that the power of the Grand Turk might be revived and an +Ottoman suzerainty of Europe secured. But it was only a dream; more than +half a century before that the doom of the Turk, who had been the most +serious foe to Christian Europe, was sealed. From 1711 to 1905, +whatever questions of supremacy arose among the different European +Powers, there was never any doubt as to the superiority of the European +race over all coloured races. The White Man moved from one easy conquest +to another. In Asia, India, China, Persia and Japan were in turn +humbled. Africa was made the slave-farm of the White Race. + +Now in the twentieth century at Mukden the White Race supremacy was +again challenged. It was a long-dormant though not a new issue which was +thus raised. From the times beyond which the memory of man does not +stretch, Asia had repeatedly threatened Europe. The struggle of the +Persian Empire to smother the Greek republics is the first of the +invasions which has been accurately recorded by historians; but probably +it had been preceded by many others. The waves of war that followed were +many. The last was the Ottoman invasion in the fourteenth century, which +brought the banners of Asia right up to the walls of Vienna, swept the +Levant of Christian ships, and threatened even the Adriatic; and which +has left the Turk still in the possession of Constantinople. But by the +beginning of the eighteenth century the fear of the Turks gaining the +mastery of Europe had practically disappeared, and after then the +Europeans treated the coloured races as subject to them, and their +territories as liable to partition whenever the method of division among +rival White nations could be agreed upon. + +Mukden made a new situation. The European Powers were prompt to +recognise the fact. Doubt even came to Great Britain whether the part +she had played as foster-mother to this Asiatic infant of wonderful +growth had been a wise one. A peace was practically forced upon Japan, a +peace which secured for her at the moment nothing in the way of +indemnity, but little in the way of territorial rights, and not even the +positive elimination of her enemy from the Asiatic coast. True, she has +since won Corea on the basis of that peace and has made secure certain +suzerain rights in Manchuria, but this harvest had to be garnered by +resolute diplomacy and by maintaining a naval and military expenditure +after the war which called for an extreme degree of self-abnegation from +her people. + +If the present position of affairs could be accepted as permanent, there +would be no "problem of the Pacific." That ocean would be Japan's +home-water. Holding her rugged islands with a veteran army and navy; so +established on the mainland of Asia as to be able to make a flank +movement on China; she is the one "Power in being" of the Pacific +littoral. But as already stated, the verdict of the war with Russia +cannot be taken as final. And soon the United States will come into the +Pacific with overwhelming force on the completion of the Panama +Canal--an event which is already foreshadowed in a modification of the +Anglo-Japanese treaty to relieve Great Britain of the possible +responsibility of going to war with America on behalf of Japan. The +permanence of the Japanese position as the chief Power of the Pacific +cannot therefore be presumed. The very suddenness with which her +greatness has been won is in itself a prompting to the suspicion that it +will not last. It has been a mushroom growth, and there are many +indications that the forcing process by which a Power has been so +quickly raised has exhausted the culture bed. In the character of her +population Japan is in some respects exceedingly rich. The events of the +past few years have shown them to possess great qualities of heroism, +patience and discipline. But they have yet to prove that they possess +powers of initiative, without which they must fail ultimately in +competition with peoples who make one conquest over Nature a +stepping-stone to another. And it is not wholly a matter of race +prejudice that makes many observers view with suspicion the "staying +power" of the character of a nation which thinks so differently from the +average European in matters of sex, in commercial honesty, and in the +obligations of good faith. Many of those who have travelled in the East, +or have done business with Japan, profess a doubt that an enduring +greatness can be built upon a national character which runs contrary in +most matters to our accepted ideas of ethics. They profess to see in the +present greatness of achievement marking Japanese national life a "flash +in the pan"--the astonishing precocity and quickness of progress of that +type of doomed infant which quickly flowers and quickly fades in the +European slums and which is known as "The Mongol" to medical science +because of a facial peculiarity which identifies it infallibly. "The +Mongol" of European child-life comes to an astonishingly early maturity +of brain: its smartness is marvellous. But it is destined always to an +early end from an ineradicable internal weakness which is, in some +strange way, the cause of its precocious cleverness. + +Whether the Japanese cleverness and progressiveness will last or not, +the nation has to be credited with them now as a live asset. But apart +from the national character the nation possesses little of "natural +capital." There is practically no store of precious metals; a poor +supply of the useful minerals; small area of good land; and the local +fisheries have been exploited with such energy for many generations that +they cannot possibly be expanded in productivity now. The statesmen of +New Japan have certainly won some overseas Empire as an addition to the +resources available for a sound fabric of national greatness. But what +has been won is quite insufficient to weigh in the scale against the +"natural capital" of almost any of Japan's rivals in the Pacific. + +For want of territory to colonise under her own flag, Japan has lost +many subjects to alien flags. Japanese settlements of some strength +exist on the Pacific coast of America, in the Hawaiian Islands, and in +parts of China. There is little doubt that Japanese policy has hoped +that in some cases at least her flag would follow her nationals. Talk, +not all of it quite irresponsible, has credited Japan with definite +designs on many Pacific settlements, especially the Hawaiian Group where +her nationals to-day outnumber any other single element of the +population. But there are now no islands or territories without a +protecting flag. Even when, as was said to be the case with Mexico and +another Latin-American country, a weak and friendly nation seems to +offer the chance of annexation of territory following a peaceable +penetration, there is the power of the United States to interpose a +veto. Japan thus cannot add to her natural resources without a war; and +she has not, it would seem, sufficient natural resources to back up a +war with the enemies she would have to meet now in the Pacific. + +If she were to put aside dreams of conquest and Empire, has Japan a +sound future in the Pacific as a thriving minor manufacturing and +trading power? I must say that it seems to me doubtful. The nation has +drunk of the wine of life and could hardly settle down to a humdrum +existence. No peaceable policy could allow of a great prosperity, for +the reasons of natural poverty already stated. It would be a life of +drudgery without the present dream of glory. To study the Japanese +emigrant away from his own country is to understand that he has not the +patience for such a life. In British Columbia, in California, in Hawaii, +the same conclusion is come to by European fellow-residents, that the +Japanese worker is arrogant, unruly, unreliable. In Japan itself there +are signs that the industrial population will not tolerate for ever a +life of very poor living and very hard working if there is not a +definite and immediate benefit of national glory promised. + +The position of Japan in the Pacific seems to me, then, that she cannot +reasonably expect to win in a struggle for its mastery: and yet that she +will inevitably be forced to enter into that struggle. A recent report +in a Tokio paper stated: "At a secret session of the Budget Commission +on February 3, Baron Saito, Minister of Marine, declared that the +irreducible minimum of naval expansion was eight battleships of the +super-Dreadnought class, and eight armoured cruisers of the same class, +which must be completed by 1920, construction being begun in 1913. The +cost is estimated at £35,000,000." And the paper (_Asahi Shimbun_) went +on to hint at the United States as the Power which had to be confronted. +That is only one of very many indications of Japanese national feeling. +She has gone too far on the path to greatness to be able to retire +safely into obscurity. She must "see it through." Feats of strength far +nearer to the miraculous than those which marked her astonishing victory +over Russia would be necessary to give Japan the slightest chance of +success in the next struggle for the hegemony of the Pacific. + +FOOTNOTES: + +[10] Since writing the above, the Japanese Government has revived in a +modified form the proposal for a State adoption, in part at least, of +the Christian religion. A communication to the Japanese Press on 20th +January 1912 from the Minister for Home Affairs stated:--"In order to +bring about an affiliation of the three religions, it is necessary to +connect religion with the State more closely, so as to give it +(religion) added dignity, and thus impress upon the public the necessity +of attaching greater importance to religious matters. The culture of +national ethics can be perfected by education combined with religion. At +present moral doctrines are inculcated by education alone, but it is +impossible to inculcate firmly fair and upright ideas in the minds of +the nation unless the people are brought into touch with the fundamental +conception known as God, Buddha, or Heaven, as taught in the religions. +It is necessary, therefore, that education and religion should go hand +in hand to build up the basis of the national ethics, and it is, +therefore, desirable that a scheme should be devised to bring education +and religion into closer relations to enable them to promote the +national welfare. All religions agree in their fundamental principles, +but the present-day conceptions of morals differ according to the time +and place and according to the different points of view. It is ever +evolving. It may, therefore, be necessary for Shintoism and Buddhism to +carry their steps towards Western countries. Christianity ought also to +step out of the narrow circle within which it is confined, and endeavour +to adapt itself to the national sentiments and customs, and to conform +to the national polity in order to ensure greater achievements. Japan +has adopted a progressive policy in politics and economics in order to +share in the blessings of Western civilisation. It is desirable to bring +Western thought and faith into harmonious relationship with Japanese +thought and faith in the spiritual world." + +This proposal to change in one act the religion of a nation "to ensure +greater achievements" will perhaps do something to support the +contention, which will be put forward later, that a nation which takes +such a curious view of life is not capable of a real and lasting +greatness, however wonderful may be its feats of imitation. + + + + +CHAPTER IV + +CHINA AND THE TEEMING MILLIONS OF ASIA + + +China is potentially the greatest Power on the western littoral of the +Pacific. Her enormous territory has vast agricultural and mineral +resources. Great rivers give easy access to some of the best of her +lands. A huge population has gifts of patient labour and craftsmanship +that make the Chinaman a feared competitor by every White worker in the +world. In courage he is not inferior to the Japanese, as General Gordon +found. In intelligence, in fidelity and in that common sense which +teaches "honesty to be the best policy," the Chinaman is far superior to +the Japanese. + +The Chinaman has been outstripped up to the present by the Japanese in +the acquirement of the arts of Western civilisation, not because of his +inferior mind, but because of his deeper disdain. He has stood aside +from the race for world supremacy on modern lines, not as one who is too +exhausted for effort, but as one who is too experienced to try. China +has in the past experimented with many of the vaunted ideas and methods +of the new civilisation, from gunpowder to a peerage chosen by +competitive examination, and long ago came to the conclusion that all +was vanity and vexation of spirit. + +The Chinaman is not humble; not content to take an inferior place in the +world. He has all the arrogance of Asia. The name of "Heavenly Kingdom" +given to the land by its inhabitants, the grandiose titles assumed by +its rulers, the degrading ceremonies which used to be exacted from +foreigners visiting China as confessions of their inferiority to the +Celestial race, show an extravagant pride of birth. In the thirteenth +century, when Confucian China, alike with Christian Europe, had to fear +the growing power of the fanatical Mohammedans, a treaty of alliance was +suggested between France and China: and the negotiations were broken off +because of the claim of China that France should submit to her as a +vassal, by way of preliminary. The Chinaman's idea of his own importance +has not abated since then. His attitude towards the "foreign devils" is +still one of utter contempt. But at present that contempt has not the +backing of naval and military strength, and so in practice counts for +nothing. + +China cherishes the oldest of living civilisations. Her legendary +history dates back to 2404 B.C., her actual history to 875 B.C., when a +high state of mental culture had been reached, and a very advanced +material civilisation also; though some caution is necessary in +accepting the statements that at that time China made use of gunpowder, +of the mariner's compass, and of printing type. But certainly weaving, +pottery, metal-working, and pictorial art flourished. The noble height +to which philosophy had reached centuries before the Christian Era is +shown by the records of Confucianism and Taoism. Political science had +been also cultivated, and there were then Chinese Socialists to claim +that "everyone should sow and reap his own harvest." + +There seem to have been at least two great parent races of the present +population of the Chinese Empire--a race dwelling in the valleys and +turning its thoughts to peace and the arts, and a race dwelling on the +Steppes and seeking joy in war. It was the Tartar and Mongol tribes of +the Steppes which sent wave after wave of attack westward towards +Europe, under chiefs the greatest of whom was Gengis Khan. But it was +the race of the valleys, the typical Chinese, stolid, patient, +laborious, who established ultimate supremacy in the nation, gradually +absorbing the more unruly elements and producing modern China with its +contempt for military glory. But the Mongols by their wars left a deep +impression on the Middle Ages, founding kingdoms which were tributary to +China, in Persia, Turkestan and as far west as the Russian Volga. + +The earliest record of European relations with China was in the seventh +century, when the Emperor Theodosius sent an embassy to the Chinese +Emperor. In the thirteenth century Marco Polo visited the Court of the +Grand Khan at Pekin, and for a while fairly constant communication +between Europe and China seems to have been maintained, the route +followed being by caravan across Asia. Christian missionaries settled in +China, and in 1248 there is a record of the Pope and the Grand Khan +exchanging greetings. + +When towards the end of the fourteenth century the Ming dynasty +supplanted the Mongol dynasty, communication with Europe was broken off +for more than a century. But in 1581 Jesuit missionaries again entered +China, and the Manchu dynasty of the seventeenth century at first +protected the Christian faith and seemed somewhat to favour Western +ideas. But in the next century the Christian missions were persecuted +and almost extirpated, to be revived in 1846. Since that date "the +mailed fist" of Europe has exacted from the Chinese a forced tolerance +of European trade and missions. + +But Chinese prejudice against foreign intrusion was given no reason for +abatement by the conduct of the European Powers, as shown, for example, +in the Opium War of 1840. That prejudice, smouldering for long, broke +out in the savage fanaticism of the Boxer outbreak of 1900, which led to +a joint punitive expedition by the European Powers, in conjunction with +Japan. China had the mortification then of being scourged not only by +the "white devils" but also by an upstart Yellow Man, who was her near +and her despised neighbour. All China that knew of the expedition to +Pekin of 1900 and understood its significance, seems to have resolved +then on some change of national policy involving the acceptance of +European methods, in warfare at least. Responding to the stimulus of +Japan's flaunting of her success in acquiring the ways of the European, +China began to consider whether there was not after all something useful +to be learned from the Western barbarians. The older Asiatic country has +a deep contempt for the younger: but proof of Japan's superior position +in the world's estimation had become too convincing to be disregarded. +China saw Japan treated with respect, herself with contumely. She found +herself humiliated in war and in diplomacy by the upstart relative. The +reason was plain, the conclusion equally plain. China began to arm and +lay the foundations of a modern naval and military system. The national +spirit began to show, too, in industry. Chinese capital claimed its +right and its duty to develop the resources of China. + +Early in the twentieth century "modern ideas" had so far established +themselves in China that Grand Councillor Chang Chih-tung was able, +without the step being equivalent to suicide, to memorialise the Throne +with these suggestions for reform:-- + +1. That the Government supply funds for free education. + +2. That the Army and Navy be reorganised without delay. + +3. That able and competent officials be secured for Government services. + +4. That Princes of the blood be sent abroad to study. + +5. That arsenals for manufacturing arms, ammunition, and other weapons +of war, and docks and shipbuilding yards for constructing warships, be +established without delay. + +6. That only Chinese capital be invested in railway and mining enterprises. + +7. That a date be given for the granting of a Constitution. + +Chang Chih-tung may be taken as the representative of the new school of +Chinese thought. His book _Chuen Hsueh Pien_ (China's Only Hope) is the +Bible of the moderate reformers. He states in that book:-- + +"In order to render China powerful, and at the same time preserve our +own institutions, it is absolutely necessary that we should utilise +Western knowledge. But unless Chinese learning is made the basis of +education, and a Chinese direction given to thought, the strong will +become anarchists, and the weak slaves. Thus the latter end will be +worse than the former.... Travel abroad for one year is more profitable +than study at home for five years. It has been well said that seeing is +a hundred times better than hearing. One year's study in a foreign +institution is better than three years in a Chinese. Mencius remarks +that a man can learn foreign things best abroad; but much more benefit +can be derived from travel by older and experienced men than by the +young, and high mandarins can learn more than petty officials.... Cannot +China follow the _viam mediam_, and learn a lesson from Japan? As the +case stands to-day, study by travel can be better done in that country +than in Europe, for the following reasons.... If it were deemed +advisable, some students could afterwards be sent to Europe for a fuller +course." + +After the Russian-Japanese War Chinese students went to Japan in +thousands, and these students laid the foundation of the Republican +school of reformers which is the greatest of the forces striving for +mastery in China to-day. The flow of students to Japan was soon checked +by the then Chinese Government, for the reason that Republican +sentiments seemed to be absorbed in the atmosphere of Japan, despite the +absolutism of the Government there. In the United States and in Europe +the Chinese scholar was able, however, to absorb Western knowledge +without acquiring Republican opinions! There is some suggestion of a +grim jest on the part of the Chinese in holding to this view. It recalls +Boccaccio's story of the Christian who despaired of the conversion of +his Jewish friend when he knew that he contemplated a visit to Rome. The +Chinese seemed to argue that a safe precaution against acquiring +Republican views is to live in a Republican country. Chinese confidence +in the educational advantages offered by the United States has been +justified by results. American-educated Chinese are prominent in every +phase of the Reform movement in China, except Republican agitation. The +first Reform Foreign Minister in China, the first great native Chinese +railway builder, the first Chinese women doctors, the greatest native +Chinese banker, are examples of American training. + +It would be outside the scope of this work to attempt to deal in any way +exhaustively with the present position in China. What the ultimate +outcome will be, it is impossible to forecast. At present a Republic is +in process of formation, after the baby Emperor through the Dowager +Empress had promulgated an edict stating: + +"We, the Emperor, have respectfully received the following Edict from +her Majesty the Dowager: + +"In consequence of the uprising of the Republican Army, to which the +people in the Provinces have responded, the Empire seethed liked a +boiling cauldron, and the people were plunged in misery. Yuan Shih-kai, +therefore, commanded the despatch of Commissioners to confer with the +Republicans with a view to a National Assembly deciding the form of +government. Months elapsed without any settlement being reached. It is +now evident that the majority of the people favour a Republic, and, from +the preference of the people's hearts, the will of Heaven is +discernible. How could we oppose the desires of millions for the glory +of one family? Therefore, the Dowager Empress and the Emperor hereby +vest the sovereignty in the people. Let Yuan Shih-kai organise with +full powers a provisional Republican Government, and let him confer with +the Republicans on the methods of establishing a union which shall +assure the peace of the Empire, and of forming a great Republic, uniting +Manchus, Chinese, Mongols, Mohammedans, and Tibetans." + +But all men whom I have met who have had chances of studying Chinese +conditions at first hand, agree that the Chinese national character is +not favourable to the permanent acceptance of Republican ideas. If there +is one thing which seems fixed in the Chinese character it is +ancestor-worship, and that is essentially incompatible with +Republicanism.[3] But what seems absolutely certain is that a new China +is coming to birth. Slowly the great mass is being leavened with a new +spirit. + +Now a new China, armed with modern weapons, would be a terrible engine +of war. A new China organised to take the field in modern industry would +be a formidable rival in neutral markets to any existing nation. The +power of such a new China put at the disposal of Japan could at least +secure all Asia for the Asiatics and hold the dominant position in the +Northern Pacific. Possibly it could establish a world supremacy, unless +such a Yellow union forced White Races to disregard smaller issues and +unite against a common foe. Fortunately a Chinese-Japanese alliance is +not at present in the least likely. The Chinese hatred of the Japanese +is of long standing and resolute, though it is sometimes dissembled. The +Japanese have an ill-concealed contempt for the Chinese. Conflict is +more likely than alliance between the two kindred races. + +Further, the Chinese will probably move far more slowly on any path of +aggression than did the Japanese, for they are intensely pacific. For +many generations they have been taught to regard the soldier as +contemptible, the recluse scholar as admirable. Ideas of overseas Empire +on their part are tempered by the fanatic wish of every Chinaman that +his bones should rest in his native land. It will only be in response to +enormous pressure that China will undertake a policy of adventure. + +That pressure is now being engendered from within and without. From +without it is being engendered by insolent robberies of territory and +other outrages on the part of foreign Powers. More particularly of late +has the modern arrogance of Japan impressed upon the old-fashioned +arrogance of China the fact that the grave scholar, skilled in all the +lore of Confucius, is a worthless atom beside a drilled coolie who can +shoot straight. From within the pressure is being engendered by the +great growth of population. For some time past infanticide has been +common in China as a Malthusian check. Now European missionaries seek to +discourage that. European medicine further sets itself to teach the +Yellow Man to cope with plague, smallpox, and cholera, while European +engineering abates the terrors of flood and of crop failure. + +Machiavelli would have found prompting for some grim aphorism in this +curious eagerness of Europe to teach the teeming millions of Asia to rid +themselves of checks on their greater growth, and thus to increase the +pressure of the Asiatic surplus seeking an outlet at the expense of +Europe. It is in respect to the urgent demand for room for an +overcrowding population that there exists alike to China and Japan the +strongest stimulus to warlike action in the Pacific. China in particular +wants colonies, even if they be only such colonies as provide +opportunities for her coolies to amass enough wealth to return in old +age to China. From the fertile basin of China there have been overflow +waves of humanity ever since there has been any record of history. +Before the era of White settlement in the Pacific the Chinese population +had pushed down the coast of Asia and penetrated through a great part of +the Malay Archipelago, an expansion not without its difficulties, for +the fierce Malay objected to the patient Chinaman and often the Chinaman +remained to fertilise but not to colonise the alien soil. By some +Providential chance neither the Chinaman nor the Japanese ever reached +to Australia in the early days of the Pacific, though there are records +of Japanese fishermen getting as far as the Hawaiian Group, a much more +hazardous journey. If the Asiatics had reached Australia the great +island would doubtless have become the southern province of Asia, for +its native population could have offered no resistance to the feeblest +invader. + +In the past, however, the great natural checks kept the Asiatic +populations within some limits. Internal wars, famines, pestilences, +infanticide--all claimed their toll. Nature exercised on man the checks +which exist throughout the whole animal kingdom, and which in some +regions of biology are so stern that it is said that only one adult +survives of 5,000,000 spawn of a kind of oyster. Now European influence +is steadily directed in Asia to removing all obstacles to the growth of +population. When the Asiatics wish to fight among themselves Europe is +inclined to interfere (as at the time of the Boxer outbreak in China), +on the ground that a state of disorder cannot be tolerated. In India +internecine warfare is strictly prohibited by the paramount Power. In +Japan all local feuds have been healed by pressure from Europe and +America, and the fighting power of the people concentrated for external +warfare. + +Not alone by checking internal warfare does Europe insist on encouraging +the growth of the Asiatic myriads. European science suggests railways, +which make famine less terrible; flood prevention works which save +millions of lives. European moralists make war on such customs as the +suicide of young widows and the exposure for death of female children. +But, far more efficacious than all, European scientists come forward to +teach to the Asiatics aseptic surgery, inoculation, and the rest of the +wisdom of preventive and curative medicine. Sometimes Nature is stronger +than science. The Plague, for instance, still claims its millions. But +even the Plague diminishes before modern medical science. + +In his _Health and Empire_ (1911), Dr Francis Fremantle tells of the +campaign against plague in India. He writes: + +"The death-rate from plague in 1904 in the Lahore and Amritsar districts +in which I worked was 25 per 1000. Over 1,000,000 Indians died of plague +in 1904, over 1,000,000 in 1905; in 1906, 332,000, and it was thought +the end was in sight. But 640,000 died in the first four months of 1907; +in 1908, 321,000 died; in 1909 only 175,000, but in 1910 again very +nearly 500,000, and this year more than ever. The United Provinces had +barely been reached by the epidemic in 1904; now with a population equal +to that of the United Kingdom, they have been losing 20,000 every week; +and the Punjab 34,000 in one week, 39,000, 47,000, 54,000, 60,000 and so +on--over 430,000 in the first four months of this year in a population +of 25,000,000. Imagine Great Britain and Ireland losing the same +proportion--over 1,000,000 from plague in half a year. And India as a +whole has in fifteen years lost over 7,000,000 from plague. Why wonder +at her unrest? + +"What, then, can the Government do? Extermination of rats is impossible; +disinfection on a large scale is impracticable; evacuation of villages +cannot be done voluntarily on any universal scale; the Government will +not apply compulsion, and such evacuation is quite useless without a +rigid cordon of police or military that will prevent communication +between one infected village and others not yet infected. A cordon, it +has been proved over and over again, cannot be maintained; the native +who wishes to pass it has only to present some official with a cautious +rupee. Extermination of rats in an Asiatic country has often failed; but +here is without a shadow of doubt the key to the problem. The methods +formerly adopted had been to give a capitation grant for every rat +brought to the appointed place, and before long it was found, for +instance in Bombay, that an extensive trade had grown up in the breeding +of rats, whereby, at a few annas apiece from the Government, many +families were able to sustain a comfortable existence.... But since +sentence on the rat-flea has been pronounced for the murder of 7,000,000 +persons and over, the best method for his extermination will not be far +off. + +"It is often debated whether even half-measures are worth being +continued. Professor W. J. Simpson, in his exhaustive monograph on the +plague, and in 1907 in his _Croonian Lectures_, has shown how in history +epidemics of plague have come and gone in different countries with long +intervals between them, often of one hundred and thirty to one hundred +and fifty years. In the eighteenth century, for instance, India seems to +have been almost free of the plague, but early in the seventeenth +century it suffered severely. The present epidemic is assuming, as far +as we can trust previous records, unprecedented proportions; probably +after a few years it will die out again. + +"An occasional cynic may argue that, since we have saved so many +thousands of lives annually from famine and wars, it may be just as well +to let the plague take their place. To such a pessimistic and inhuman +conclusion it is impossible for one moment to submit. It may be that for +economic reasons some parts of the Indian Empire would be happier if +their population were less dense; but it does not follow that we should +allow Death to stalk uninterrupted, unopposed, and apparently without +limit, throughout the country. Economics apart, we may yet be absolutely +convinced, whether as doctors or as statesmen, that it is our mission, +our duty, to protect the populations included under British rule to the +best of our ability against every scourge as it may arise; and therefore +it is urgent that such measures as we have be pushed forward with the +utmost vigour." + +That tells (in a more convincing way, because of the impatience of the +doctor, accustomed to European conditions, at the slow result of work in +India) how resolute is the White Man's campaign against the Yellow Man's +death-rate in one part of Asia. Such a campaign in time must succeed in +destroying the disease against which it is directed and thus adding +further to the fecundity of Asia. + +Nor is the fight against diseases confined to those parts of Asia under +direct White rule. The cult of White medicine spreads everywhere, +carried by Japanese as well as by European doctors and missionaries. Its +effects already show in the enormous increase of Asiatic population, +proved wherever definite figures are available. That growth adds year by +year to the danger that the Yellow Man will overrun the Pacific and +force the White Man to a second place in the ocean's affairs, perhaps +not even leaving him that. + +An older and sterner school of thought would have condemned as fatuous +the White Races' humanitarian nurture of the Yellow Races. But the +gentler thought of to-day will probably agree with Dr Fremantle that the +White Man cannot "allow Death to stalk uninterrupted, unopposed" even +through the territory of our racial rivals. But we must give serious +thought to the position which is thus created, especially in view of the +"levelling" racial tendency of modern weapons of warfare. China has a +population to-day, according to Chinese estimates, of 433,000,000; +according to an American diplomatist's conclusions, of not much more +than half that total. But it is, without a doubt, growing as it never +grew before; and modern reform ideas will continue to make it grow and +render the menace of its overflow more imminent. + +At present the trend of thought in China is pacific. But it is not +possible to be sure that there will not be a change in that regard with +the ferment of new ideas. The discussion to-day of a Republic in China, +of womanhood suffrage in China, of democratic socialism in China, +suggests that the vast Empire, which has been for so long the example of +conservative immobility most favoured by rhetoricians anxious to +illustrate a political argument, may plunge into unexpected adventures. +China has in the past provided great invaders of the world's peace. She +may in the near future turn again to the thoughts of military adventure. +The chance of this would be increased if in the settlement of her +constitutional troubles a long resort to arms were necessary. Then the +victorious army, whether monarchical or Republican, might aspire to win +for a new China recognition abroad. + +It is a fortunate fact that supposing a revival of militancy in China, a +revival which is possible but not probable, the first brunt of the +trouble would probably fall upon Japan. At the present moment Japan is +the most serious offender against China's national pride. As the +conqueror of Corea and the occupier of Manchuria, she trespasses most of +all foreign Powers on the territories and the rights of China. After +Japan, Russia would have to expect a demand for a reckoning; Great +Britain would come third and might come into collision with an +aggressive China, either because of the existence of such settlements as +Hong Kong or because of the Thibetan boundary. A China in search of +enemies, however, would find no lack of good pretexts for quarrelling. +There are, for instance, the offensive and humiliating restrictions on +Chinese immigration of the United States, of Canada, New Zealand and +Australia. + +I find it necessary, however, to conclude that so far as the near +future is concerned, China will not take a great warrior part in the +determining of Pacific issues. She may be able to enforce a more +wholesome respect for her territorial integrity: she may push away some +intruders: she may even insist on a less injurious and contemptuous +attitude towards her nationals abroad. But she will not, I think, seek +greatness by a policy of aggression. There is no analogy between her +conditions and those of Japan at the time of the Japanese acceptance of +European arts and crafts. Japan at the time was a bitterly quarrelsome +country: she turned from civil to foreign war. China has been +essentially pacific for some centuries. Japan was faced at the outset of +her national career with the fact that she had to expand her territory +or else she could not hope to exist as a great Power. China has within +her own borders all that is necessary for national greatness. + +If at a later date the Chinese, either from a too-thorough study of the +lore of European civilisation, or from the pressure of a population +deprived of all Malthusian checks and thus finding an outlet absolutely +necessary, should decide to put armies and navies to work for the +obtaining of new territory, the peril will be great to the White Man. +Such a Chinese movement could secure Asia for the Asiatics, and might +not stop at that point. But that danger is not of this decade, though +it may have to be faced later by the White Power which wins the +supremacy of the Pacific. + +FOOTNOTES: + +[3] A very clear statement as to the position in China was that given in +London during January of 1912 by Mr Kwei Chih, a secretary of the +Chinese Legation. + +"None of the dynasties in China," he said, "has ever maintained a +tyrannical _régime_ for any length of time, least of all the Manchu +dynasty, the policy of which has consisted rather of a mixture of +paternalism and obscurantism than of hard repression of the people.... +The present unanimous desire of the Chinese to remove the Manchu dynasty +arises solely from the fact that the Chinese have fully awakened to the +realisation that only a policy of thoroughgoing Westernisation can save +China from disruption and partition. The removal of the Manchu dynasty +is of no greater national moment to China than would be the fall of a +Cabinet to any European country. Personal animus enters, indeed, so +little into the determination of the new Chinese _régime_ that the +question of setting apart lands for the deposed dynasty, and even of +granting it ex-territorial privileges, may eventually be accepted in the +way of a solution. In regard to the adoption of Republican ideas, it may +be said that the Chinese statesman does not understand the meaning of +the Republican principle, and if a new _régime_ should declare itself +Republican, its Republicanism will be of a much more strongly democratic +type than any known to Europe. It will even be more popular in its +constitution than the American, and will far more fully seek the +development of the common weal than most bureaucratic systems bearing +the name. The suggested application of Christian principles to the new +_régime_ may be regarded as wholly impossible. Confucianism, by which +China stands or falls, is a secular philosophy, the only semblance of a +spiritual or religious tenet in which is the principle of +ancestor-worship, and though a theocratic idea is admitted in the +creation of the universe, the question of a life hereafter is wholly +excluded from its teachings." + + + + +CHAPTER V + +THE UNITED STATES--AN IMPERIAL POWER + + +Following the map of the North-Western Pacific littoral, the eye +encounters, on leaving the coast of China, the Philippine Islands, proof +of the ambition of the United States to hold a place in the Pacific. + +It is a common fallacy to ascribe to the United States a Quakerish +temperament in foreign affairs. Certain catch-words of American local +politics have been given a fictitious value, both at home and abroad. +"Republican Simplicity," "The Rights of Man," "European Tyranny," +"Imperial Aggression," "The Vortex of Militarism"--from these and +similar texts some United State publicists are wont to preach of the +tyranny of European kings and emperors; of their greed to swallow up +weak neighbours; and of the evils of the military and naval systems +maintained to gratify such greed. By much grandiose assertion, or by +that quiet implication which is more complete proof of a convinced mind +than the most grandiose of assertion, the American nation has been +pictured in happy contrast to others, pursuing a simple and peaceful +life; with no desire for more territory; no wish to interfere with the +affairs of others; in the world, but not of the world. + +Astonishment that such professions should carry any weight at all in the +face of the great mass of facts showing that the American national +temper is exactly the reverse of Quakerish, is modified in the political +student by the fact that it is the rule for nations as well as +individuals to be judged in the popular estimation by phrases rather +than by facts. Ignoring the phrases of politicians and considering only +the facts, it will be found that the American people have Imperial +ambitions worthy of their ancestry and inseparable from the +responsibility towards civilisation which their national greatness +involves. + +It was in the middle of the eighteenth century that the United States +began national housekeeping within a small territory on the seaboard of +the Atlantic. By the nineteenth century that area had extended over a +section of the continent of America as large almost as Europe. By the +twentieth century this Power, still represented as incurably "peaceful +and stay-at-home" by its leaders, was established in the Caribbean Sea, +on the Isthmus of Panama, in the North and South Pacific, along the +coast of Asia, and had set up firmly the principle that whatever affair +of the world demanded international attention, from a loan to China, to +the fate of an Atlantic port of Morocco, the United States had +"interests" which must be considered, and advice which must be +regarded. The only circumstance that genuinely suggests a Quaker spirit +in United States foreign diplomacy is her quaint directness of language. +More effete peoples may wrap every stage of a negotiation up to an +ultimatum in honeyed phrases of respect. America "tutoyers" all courts +and is mercilessly blunt in claim and warning. + +It would be very strange if the United States were otherwise than +Imperial in spirit. Nations, like individuals, are affected by +biological laws; a young, strong nation is as naturally aggressive and +ambitious as a young, strong boy. Contentment with things as they are, a +disposition to make anxious sacrifices to the gods who grant peace, are +the signs of old age. If a boy is quite good his parents have a +reasonable right to suspect some constitutional weakness. A new nation +which really resembled what a great many of the American people think +the United States to be, would show as a morbid anomaly. No; the course +of the world's future history will never be correctly forecasted except +on the assumption that the United States is an aggressively Imperial +nation, having an influence at least equal to that of any European Power +in the settlement of international issues; and determined to use that +influence and to extend its scope year by year. In the Problem of the +Pacific particularly, the United States must be counted, not merely as a +great factor but the greatest factor. + +If the American citizen of to-day is considered as though he were a +British citizen of some generations back, with a healthy young appetite +for conquest still uncloyed, some idea near to the truth will have been +reached. But since the deference exacted by public opinion nowadays +compels some degree of pretence and does not permit us to parade our +souls naked, it is improbable that the United States citizen of this +century will adopt the frank freebooting attitude of the Elizabethan +Englishman when he was laying the foundations of his Empire by methods +inspired somewhat by piracy as well as by patriotism. The American will +have to make some concession to the times and seek always a moral +sanction for the extension of his boundaries. Such a search, however, is +rarely made in vain when it is backed by a resolved purpose. It was +sufficient for Francis Drake to know that a settlement was Spanish and +rich. The attack followed. The United States needs to know that a +possession is foreign, is desirable, and is grossly ill-governed before +she will move to a remonstrance in the sacred name of Liberty. Since +good government is an ideal which seldom comes at all close to +realisation, and the reputation of no form of administration can survive +the ordeal of resolute foreign criticism, the practical difference is +slight. The American Empire will grow with the benediction always of a +high moral purpose; but it will grow. + +It is interesting to recall the fact that at its very birth the United +States was invested by a writer of prophetic insight with the purple of +Empire. Said the _London Gazette_ of 1765:--"Little doubt can be +entertained that America will in time be the greatest and most +prosperous Empire that perhaps the world has ever seen." But the early +founders of the new nation, then as now, deceived themselves and others +with the view that a pacific little Republic, not a mighty Empire, was +their aim. The Imperial instinct showed, however, in the fact that the +baby nation had in its youngest days set up a formidable navy. It was +ostensibly "for the local defence of its shores," but naval power and +overseas Empire are inseparably linked. + +The austere Republic began to grow in territory and influence at a rate +putting to shame the early feats of the Roman power. By 1893 the United +States had made it clear that she would not allow her independence to be +fettered in the slightest degree by any claims of gratitude from France: +and her Declaration of Neutrality in the European War then raging was a +clear statement of claim to be considered as a Power. The war with the +Barbary States in 1802 to suppress piracy was a claim to police rights +on the high seas, police rights which custom gives only to a paramount +sea Power. By the next year Spain and France had been more or less +politely relieved of all responsibilities in North America, and the +United States stretched from ocean to ocean, and from the Great Lakes to +the Gulf of Mexico. + +It is upon the early eloquence of her founders as to the duty of the +United States to confine her attention strictly to America, that the +common misconception of America's place in foreign policy has been built +up. That talk, however, was in the first instance dictated largely by +prudence. Alexander Hamilton, who controlled the foreign policy of the +infant Republic at the outset, was particularly anxious that she should +find her feet before attempting any deeds of enterprise. In particular, +he was anxious that the United States should not, through considerations +of sentiment, be drawn into the position of a mere appanage of France. +He set the foundations of what was known afterwards as the "Monroe +doctrine," with the one thought that, at the time, a policy of +non-interference with European affairs was a necessary condition of free +growth for the young nation. The same idea governed Washington's +farewell address in 1796 with its warning against "foreign +entanglements." + +Afterwards the "Monroe doctrine"--deriving its name from a message by +President Monroe in 1823--was given the meaning that the United States +would not tolerate any interference with the affairs of the American +continent by Europe. Finally the "Monroe doctrine," which had begun with +an affirmation of America's non-participation in European affairs, and +had developed into a declaration against European interference with +American affairs, took its present form, which is, in effect, that over +all America the United States has a paramount interest which must not be +questioned, and that as regards the rest of the world she claims an +equal voice with other Powers. Yet, though that is the actual position, +there is still an idea in some minds that the Monroe doctrine is an +instrument of humbleness by which the United States claims the immunity +of America from foreign interference and guarantees foreign countries +from American interference. + +It will be of value to recall, in illustration of the rapid growth of an +aggressive national pride in the United States, the circumstances which +led up to Mr. President Monroe's formal message in 1823. The dawn of the +nineteenth century found the young American nation, after about a +quarter of a century's existence, fairly on her feet; able to vindicate +her rights abroad by a war against the Barbary pirates: given by the +cession of Louisiana from France, a magnificent accession of territory. +The Empire of Spain was crumbling to pieces, and between 1803 and 1825 +the Latin-American Republics in South and Central America were being +established on the ruins of that Empire. Spain, her attention engaged in +European wars, was able to do little or nothing to assert herself +against the rebellious colonies. But in 1815, Napoleon having been +vanquished, the Holy Alliance in Europe attempted to reassert the old +power of the European monarchies. The terror of Napoleon's army had +forced the kings of the earth into a union which forgot national +differences and was anxious only to preserve the Divine Right of Kings. +The formation of this Holy Alliance was viewed with suspicion and +dislike in the United States, and when in 1823 the Alliance raised the +question of joint action by European monarchies to restore Spanish rule +in South America, the United States responded with Monroe's famous +message forbidding any European interference on the continent of +America. Such European colonies as already existed would be tolerated, +and that was all. The message stated: + + "The American continents by the free and independent conditions + which they have assumed are henceforth not to be considered as + subjects for future colonisation by any European Power. + + "We could not view any interposition for purpose of oppressing them + or controlling in any other manner their destiny by any European + Power in any other way than as the manifestation of an unfriendly + disposition towards the United States." + +That "Monroe doctrine" was destined to be extended greatly in scope. In +1845 Mr. President Polk declared that no future European colony should +be planted on any part of the North American continent, and laid it down +as the duty of the United States "to annex American territory lest it be +annexed by European countries." True to that faith, he was responsible +for the annexation of Texas, Oregon and California. The United States +claim to overlordship of North America was still more remarkably +extended in 1867, when a protest was entered against the Federation of +the Canadian Provinces. The protest was not insisted upon then, though +in 1870 Mr. President Grant revived the spirit of the protest with his +forecast of "the end of European political connection with this +continent." The Venezuela controversy between Great Britain and the +United States in 1895 was responsible for another extension of the +Monroe doctrine. It was then claimed that "foreign colonies ought to +cease in this hemisphere." Insistence on that would, however, have led +to a war in which Great Britain probably would have had the assistance +of other European Powers affected; and the Monroe doctrine receded a +little. + +Exactly how this chief article of the United States foreign policy +stands to-day one cannot say. Certainly the Monroe doctrine does not +mean, as it was once supposed to mean, that the United States in return +for foreign abstention from interference in American affairs pledges +herself to keep apart from all extra-American affairs. In world politics +she claims and exercises the privileges to which her vast resources and +her high state of civilisation are the warrants. In regard to American +affairs the Monroe doctrine clearly forbids any further European +colonisation in North or South America, and constitutes the United +States as the Suzerain Power of all the Latin-American Republics +(whether they are willing or not). What else it will be found to mean +will depend on the circumstances of the moment and the feelings of the +newspaper proprietors who exercise so great an influence on the +American man-in-the-street, the governing factor in shaping his +country's foreign policy. In European countries, however democratic, the +man-in-the-street has rarely any immediate authority over Foreign +Affairs. In Great Britain, for example, the questions of the relations +of the Government with other countries are not canvassed before the +voters. The close oligarchy of the Cabinet (acting often with the +Opposition Front Bench) comes to decisions of peace and war, of treaty +and _entente_, and, after decision, allows Parliament and the electorate +to acquiesce. But in the United States foreign policy is actually +dictated by the voters; and that means, in effect, by the newspapers. On +occasion the Monroe doctrine has already been interpreted into a notice +to quit to all European Powers holding settlements on the American +continent. It may in the near future revive that claim to paramount and +exclusive authority, and it may cover a declaration of direct suzerainty +over Mexico, and over the smaller republics intervening between the +United States border and the Panama Canal. In most Latin-American +republics disorder is the rule rather than the exception; and it may +become at any moment the honest opinion of the man-in-the-street of the +United States that the Panama Canal is too important to civilisation to +be left to the chances of interference from less stable governments than +his own. + +These conclusions are inevitable to anyone making any study of American +history and the American character. They are not hostile criticisms. +They are rather appreciations. A great nation with a belief in its +destiny must be "Imperialist" in spirit, because it has a natural desire +to spread the blessings of its rule. The people of the United States +believe as strongly in themselves as did the ancient Hebrews, and all +must have a genuine respect for that fierce spirit of elect nationality +which made the Hebrews found a great nation on a goat-patch. In +Elizabethan England the same spirit flourished and was responsible for +the founding of the British Empire. (It survives still in the British +Isles, though somewhat spasmodically.) There is no ground at all either +for wonder or for complaint in the fact that Imperialism has been born +to vigorous life in the United States, where the people of "God's own +country" are firm in these two articles of faith: that any interference +in the affairs of the United States is unjust, unnecessary, tyrannical +and impious; that any United States interference with another nation is +a necessary and salutary effort on behalf of civilisation. Let no man of +British blood complain. But let no one in making calculations of world +policy be deceived into any other conclusion than that the United States +is the great Imperial force of this century, and also the one Power that +has enough of the splendid illusions of youth to indulge in crusading +wars, for which Europe nowadays is too old and cautious. + +In the countries of Europe other than Great Britain that which I have +stated is coming to be generally recognised, and if at any time a +combination could be proposed with any hope of success "to put America +in her place," the combination would be formed and the Old World would +grapple with the New to try conclusions. Without Great Britain, however, +such an alliance would have at present no chance of success, and British +adherence is not within the realm of practical thought to-day. + +The Imperialist tendency of United States policy is shown with +particular clarity in the history of the Pacific Ocean. Very early in +her life the vigorous young nation saw the Fates beckoning her across +the Pacific. The downfall of the Spanish power in North America left the +United States heir to a great stretch of rich coast line, including the +noble province of California. Russia was ousted from the north-west +coast of the Continent by a wise purchase. Before then, American whalers +sailing out of Boston had begun to exploit the Southern Pacific. Their +whaling trips brought back knowledge of the Hawaiian or Sandwich Group, +and, following exactly the methods of British colonisation, American +missionaries were the pioneers of American nationalisation. As far back +as 1820 Hiram Bingham preached his first sermon at Honolulu from the +text, "Fear not, for, behold, I bring you glad tidings of great joy." A +handsome church now marks the gratitude of his native converts. With +equal justice Bingham's American compatriots might have set up a great +statue to him as the first warden of the Marches of the Pacific for the +United States. For from that day the annexation of Hawaii was +inevitable. The process took the familiar course. First the United +States Republic exercised a benevolent suzerainty over the Hawaiian +kingdom. Then the blessing of free institutions was bestowed on the +natives by the foundation of an Hawaiian Republic. The next step was +definite annexation. Following that, came steps for the formation of a +great naval base at Honolulu. + +When I visited the Hawaiian Group in the spring of 1909 the work of +fortifying Honolulu was being pushed on with great vigour, and the +American military and civil authorities boasted of their intention to +make it the Gibraltar of the Pacific. The city of Honolulu has at +present a very small harbour, a little bay to which access is given by +an opening in the coral reefs which surround the island. This port would +hardly afford shelter to a squadron of cruisers. But to the left as one +enters is Pearl Harbour, a magnificent stretch of land-locked water +sufficient to float a great Fleet. But Pearl Harbour basin in its +natural state is too well protected, there being no means of access +except for very small boats. American energy is now remedying that, and +a deep-water channel is being cut from Honolulu Harbour to Pearl Harbour +to take vessels of the largest draught at all tides. When that channel +is completed, Pearl Harbour will be at once commodious and easily +protected. The single narrow entrance will be dominated by the guns of +Malakiki Hill, a great eminence, somewhat like Gibraltar in shape, to +the right of the town, which commands the sea-front east and west: and +within Pearl Harbour the American Pacific Fleet will find a safe haven. +It will be absolutely impregnable from the sea. Hostile ships +approaching Honolulu would have to steer straight for Malakiki and then +defile amid the coral reefs past its guns before the entrance to Pearl +Harbour would open before them. + +But land defence has also to be taken into account. The chief male +element of the Hawaiian population is not American, not native Hawaiian. +It is Japanese. The Mikado's subjects represent now the largest fighting +element in the population, outnumbering even the natives. These +Japanese, imported as coolies for the sugar-fields, are mostly men of +military training. Further influx of them has now been stopped, not +under an Immigration Restriction Act, but by private treaty with Japan; +and, as a measure of precaution, an Arms Registration Ordinance provides +that no citizen shall have in his possession firearms unless he is +licensed by the Government. But this precaution would be in vain if +Japan ever seriously thought of using her 50,000 soldier-citizens in the +Hawaiian Group against the United States; for the whole of the fishing +industry is in the hands of the Japanese, and their sampans could land +arms at various places on the islands with ease. Such a contingency has +been foreseen in the laying out of Honolulu as a naval base, and the +land fortifications are designed with the same thoroughness as those +designed to beat off a sea attack. + +A glance at the map will show that the Power which holds Hawaii with a +powerful Fleet can dominate the whole of the Northern Pacific, +threatening every point east and west. The American position there is +weakened by only one circumstance, the great Japanese population. This, +though it may not be recruited with further drafts of males from its +native source, will always be a very considerable, if not the most +considerable, element of the Hawaiian population, for most of the +coolies are married, and the Japanese abroad as well as at home fills +the cradle industriously. + +I remember on the morning of April 1, 1909, coming into Honolulu city +from the Moana Hotel on the sea-beach, I found the tram rushed by +Japanese at all the stopping places. Two cruisers of their navy had +entered the harbour--cruisers which were once upon a time the Russian +_Variag_ and _Koreitz_. All Japan in Honolulu was making holiday. A +fleet of sampans (the Japanese fishing-vessel) surrounded the ships, +which commemorated so signally a great and successful war. The water +front was lined with Japanese, the women and children mostly in their +national costume. One Japanese father came on to the tram with seven +boys, the eldest of whom did not seem more than ten years of age. +Asked, he said that they were all his own children. There will never be +a lack of a big Japanese population in Hawaii. + +The definite acquisition of Hawaii may be fairly dated from 1851. Before +then there had been a significant proof of America's gaze turning +westward by the appointment in 1844 of Mr Caleb Cushing as the United +States Ambassador to the Court of China. A little later (1854) the +American Power found the Japanese policy of exclusiveness intolerable, +and United States warships broke a way into Japanese ports. It had also +been decided by then that the task, originally undertaken by a French +Company, of cutting a waterway across the Panama Isthmus should be the +responsibility of the United States. British susceptibilities on the +point were soothed by the Clayton-Bulwer treaty guaranteeing the +neutrality of the canal, a treaty which was subsequently abrogated in +response to the increasing deference which the growing power of the +American Republic could exact. That abrogation created the present +position which gives the United States sole control of that canal, and +the right to fortify its entrances. + +By the middle of the nineteenth century, therefore, the United States, a +Power which some people still insist on regarding as an essentially +domestic character interested only in purely American affairs, had +established herself in a commanding strategical position in the North +Pacific, had constituted herself the arbiter of Japanese national +manners, and had obtained the control of the future waterway from the +Atlantic to the Pacific. The second half of the same century was +destined to see an even more remarkable Imperial expansion. The +misgovernment of Cuba by Spain became intolerable to American public +opinion, and in 1898 war was declared with the avowed purpose of +conferring the blessings of freedom on the people of Cuba. If one +accepted the nonsensical view that the United States is a Power lifted +above ordinary human nature by some mysterious racial alchemy, it would +be difficult to understand why a war to free Cuba should also have been +waged in another ocean to acquire the Philippines. But, looking at the +matter in a sane light, it was natural that, being engaged in a war with +Spain, the United States should strike at Spain wherever a blow was +possible and should destroy the Spanish power in the Pacific Ocean as +well as in the Caribbean Sea. Besides, the opportunity offered of +stretching the arm of America right across the Pacific to the very coast +of Asia. The Filipinos did not relish the substitution for the weak rule +of Spain of the strong rule of the United States, and American +Imperialism had the experience of having to force, by stern warfare on +the liberated, acceptance of its rôle of liberator. Perhaps the +experience taught it some sympathy with older players at the game of +Empire-making: certainly it did not abate its ardour in the good work. + +So much for the past history of the United States in the Pacific. A +forecast of her influence on the future of the ocean is clearly +indicated by the past. The United States spread from the east of the +North American continent to the west, because there is no method known +to prevent the extension of a highly civilised, a young, an ardent +nation at the expense of backward, effete and tired peoples. It was +impossible that either the Red Indian tribes or the picturesque old +settlements of the Californian Spanish should stand in the way of the +American Republic stretching from ocean to ocean. Once the United States +was established on the Pacific coast, it was equally inevitable that the +arm of her power should stretch across the ocean. The acquisition of the +Hawaiian Group was necessary for the sound defence of the coast. The +American trading ships which sought the coast of Asia and found barbaric +barriers against commerce being battered down by European venturers, had +to do as the other White Men did. The flag thus had to follow in the +wake of the trade. It was all natural, necessary and ultimately +beneficial to civilisation. Equally inevitable will be the future +expansion of the United States in the Pacific. The overwhelming strength +of her industrial organisation will give her a first call on the neutral +markets of the ocean--_i.e._ those markets to which she has the same +right of access as her trade rivals. As the tendency shows for the area +of those neutral markets to narrow through coming under the domination +of various Powers, the United States will seek to extend her domination +too. The protection of what she has will enforce the need of acquiring +other strategical points. So her Pacific possessions will grow, almost +unconsciously, just as the British Empire grew. + + + + +CHAPTER VI + +GREAT BRITAIN'S ENTRY INTO THE PACIFIC + + +Off the coast of China at a point where, in a strategical map the +"spheres of influence" of Japan and the United States and Germany would +impinge, is the island of Hong Kong, the Far East station of the British +Empire. Further south, in the Malay Peninsula, is Singapore, standing +guard over the entrance to the Indian Ocean. On these two coaling +stations British naval power in the North Pacific is based. The +abandonment of either of them is unthinkable to-day, yet neither was +taken possession of until the nineteenth century--Singapore in 1819, +Hong Kong in 1841. In the South Pacific there was shown an even stronger +hesitation in acquiring territory. + +Why Great Britain entered so reluctantly into the Pacific as a +colonising Power may probably be explained by the fact that at the time +the ocean came to be exploited British earth hunger had been satiated. +The unsuccessful war which attempted to hold the American colonies to +the Mother Country, had made her doubtful whether overseas dominions +were altogether a blessing and whether the advantage to be gained from +them outweighed the responsibilities which their holding entailed. It +seemed to be the natural conclusion from the American War of +Independence, that once a colony or a group of colonies arrived at the +stage of growth which allowed it to be of some use to the Mother +Country, the inevitable next development was for it to throw off the +bonds of kinship and enter upon a career of independence at the price of +an expensive and humiliating war to its parent. Thus, whilst British +sailors were to the front in the exploration of the Pacific, British +statesmen showed a great reluctance to take any advantage of their +discoveries; and it was a series of accidents rather than any settled +purpose which planted the Anglo-Saxon race so firmly in this ocean. +India, it must be noted, a century ago was a country having very little +direct concern with the Pacific. The holding of the Indian Empire did +not depend on any position in the Pacific. That situation has since +changed, and Great Britain would be forced to an interest in the Pacific +by her Indian Empire if she had no other possessions in the ocean. + +In an earlier chapter on Japan, something has been written concerning +the reasons which would argue for the absence of an Imperial impulse in +the Japanese islands and its presence in the British islands. The +inquiry then suggested as to the instincts of expansion and dominion +which were primarily responsible for the growth of the British Empire is +full of fascination for the historian. If it comes to be considered +carefully, the Empire-making of the British people was throughout the +result of a racial impulse working instinctively, spasmodically, though +unerringly, towards an unseen goal, rather than of a designed and +purposeful statesmanship. + +The racial origin of the British people dictated peremptorily a policy +of oversea adventure, and that adventure led inevitably to colonisation. +In the beginning Britain was a part of Gaul, a temperate and fertile +peninsula which by right of latitude should have had the temperature of +Labrador, but which, because of the Gulf Stream, enjoyed a climate +singularly mild and promotive of fecundity. When the separation from the +mainland came because of the North Sea cutting the English Channel, the +Gallic tribes left in Britain began to acquire, as the fruits of their +gracious environment and their insular position, an exclusive patriotism +and a comparative immunity from invasion. These made the Briton at once +very proud of his country and not very fitted to defend its shores. + +With the Roman invasion there came to the future British race a benefit +from both those causes. The comparative ease of the conquest by the +Roman Power, holding as it did the mastery of the seas, freed the +ensuing settlement by the conquerors from a good deal of the bitterness +which would have followed a desperate resistance. The Romans were +generous winners and good colonists. Once their power was established +firmly, they treated a subject race with kindly consideration. Soon, +too, the local pride of the Britons affected their victors. The Roman +garrison came to take an interest in their new home, an interest which +was aided by the singular beauty and fertility of the country. It was +not long before Carausius, a Roman general in Britain, had set himself +up as independent of Italy, and with the aid of sea-power he maintained +his position for some years. The Romans and the Britons, too, freely +intermarried, and at the time when the failing power of the Empire +compelled the withdrawal of the Roman garrison, the south of Britain was +as much Romanised as, say, northern Africa or Spain. + +Thus from the very dawn of known history natural position and climate +marked out Britain as the vat for the brewing of a strenuous blood. The +sea served her "in the office of a wall or of a moat defensive to a +house" to keep away all but the most vigorous of invaders. The charm and +fertility of the land made it certain that a bold and vigorous invader +would be tempted to become a colonist and not be satisfied with robbing +and passing on. + +With the decay of the Roman Empire, and the withdrawal of the Roman +legions to the defence of Rome, the Romanised Britons were left +helpless. Civilisation and the growth of riches had made them at once +more desirable objects of prey, and less able to resist attack. The +province which Rome abandoned was worried on all sides by the incursion +of the fierce clans of the north and the west. A decision, ultimately +wise, judged by its happy results, but at the moment disastrous, induced +some of the harried Britons to call in to their aid the Norsemen +pirates, who at the time, taking advantage of the failing authority of +Rome, were swarming out from Scandinavia and from the shores of the +Baltic in search of booty. The Angles, the Saxons, the Jutes, were +willing enough to come to Britain as mercenaries, even more willing to +stay as colonists. An Anglo-Saxon wave swept over the greater part of +England, and was stopped only by the mountains of Wales or of Scotland. +That was the end of the Britons as the chief power in Britain, but they +mingled with their conquerors to modify the Anglo-Saxon type with an +infusion of Celtic blood. In the mountainous districts the Celtic blood +continued to predominate, and does to this day. + +The Anglo-Saxons would have been very content to settle down peacefully +on the fat lands which had fallen to them, but the piratical nests from +which they themselves had issued still sent forth broods of hungry +adventurers, and the invasions of the Danes taught the Anglo-Saxons that +what steel had won must be guarded by steel. They learned, too, that any +race holding England must rely upon sea-power for peaceful existence. +After the Danish, the last great element in the making of the present +British race, was the Norman. The Normans were not so much foreigners +as might be supposed. The Anglo-Saxons of the day were descendants of +sea-pirates who had settled in Britain and mingled their blood with the +British. The Normans were descendants of kindred sea-pirates who had +settled in Gaul, and mingled their blood with that of the Gauls and +Franks. The two races, Anglo-Saxon and Normans, after a while combined +amicably enough, the Anglo-Saxon blood predominating, and the British +type was evolved, in part Celtic, in part Danish, in part Anglo-Saxon, +in part Norman--a hard-fighting, stubborn adventurous race, which in its +making from such varied elements had learned the value of compromise, +and of the common-sense principle of give-and-take. One can see that it +was just the race for the work of exploration and colonisation. + +When this British people, thus constituted, were driven back to a +sea-frontier by the French nation, it was natural that they should turn +their energies overseas. To this their Anglo-Saxon blood, their Danish +blood, their Norman blood prompted. The Elizabethan era, which was the +era of the foundation of the British Empire overseas, was marked by a +form of patriotism which was hard to distinguish in some of its +manifestations from plain robbery. The fact calls for no particular +condemnation. It was according to the habit of thought of the time. But +it is necessary to bear in mind that the hunt for loot and not the +desire for territory was the chief motive of the flashing glories of the +Elizabethan era of seamanship; for that is the explanation why there +was left as the fruit of many victories few permanent settlements. + +Drake was the first English naval leader to penetrate to the Pacific. +His famous circumnavigation of the world is one of the boldest exploits +of history. Drake's log entry on entering the Pacific stirs the blood: + +"Now, as we were fallen to the uttermost parts of these islands on +October 28, 1578, our troubles did make an end, the storm ceased, and +all our calamities (only the absence of our friends excepted) were +removed, as if God all this while by His secret Providence had led us to +make this discovery, which being had according to His will, He stayed +His hand." + +On this voyage Drake put in at San Francisco, which he named New Albion. +He went back to Europe through the East Indies and around Africa. But +Drake made no attempt at colonisation. Looting of the Spanish treasure +ships was the first and last object of his cruise. What was, according +to our present lights, a more honourable descent upon the Pacific was +that of Admiral Anson in the eighteenth century. He, in 1740, took a +Fleet round the stormy Horn to subdue the Philippines and break the +power of Spain in the Pacific. The force thought fitting for such an +enterprise in those days was 961 men! Anson did not subdue the +Philippines; but they were guarded by the scurvy, which attacked the +English Fleet, rather than by the Spanish might, and the little +disease-racked English squadron was able to cripple the Spanish power in +the Pacific by the mere dread of its presence. Anson took prizes and +made them masquerade before the enemy's coast as hostile warships, and +paralysed the Spanish commerce in those seas. He returned to England +with only 335 men out of his original complement of 961. Practically all +the deaths had been from disease. But again the idea of the Pacific +expedition was not to colonise but to strike a blow at a rival European +Power. It was not until the nineteenth century that Great Britain +established herself on the western flank of the North Pacific. + +So far as the South Pacific was concerned British indifference was +complete, and it was shared by other nations. In the days when the +fabled wealth of the Indies was the magnet to draw men of courage and +worth to perilous undertakings by sea and land, there was nothing in the +South Pacific to attract their greed, and nothing, therefore, to +stimulate their enterprise. The Spaniard, blundering on America in his +quest for a western sea-passage to the ivory, the gold, and the spices +of India, found there a land with more possibilities of plunder than +that which he had originally sought. He was content to remain, looting +the treasuries of the Mexicans and of the Peruvians for metals, and +laying the forests of Central America under contribution for precious +woods. He ventured but little westward, and the Hawaiian Islands +represented for a time the extreme western limit of his adventures. +Following him for plunder came the English, and they too were content to +sweep along the western coast of South America without venturing further +towards the unknown west. + +From another direction the sea-route to India was sought by Portuguese, +and Dutch, and English and French. Groping round the African coast, they +came in time to the land of their desires, and found besides India and +Cathay, Java, the Spice Islands, and other rich groups of the Malay +Archipelago. But they, just as the Spaniards, did not venture west from +South America; and neither Portuguese, Dutch, French nor English set the +course of their vessels south from the East Indies. + +It was thus Australia remained for many years an unknown continent. And +when at last navigators, more bold or less bound to an immediate greed, +touched upon the shores of Australia, or called at the South Sea +Islands, they found little that was attractive. In no case had the +simple natives won to a greed for gold and silver, and so they had no +accumulations of wealth to tempt cupidity. In the case of Australia the +coast-line was dour and forbidding, and promised nothing but sterility. + +The exploring period in which the desire for plunder was the chief +motive passed away, having spared the South Pacific. It was therefore +the fate of Australia, of New Zealand, and of most of the islands of +Polynesia and Melanesia, to be settled under happier conditions, and to +be spared the excesses of cruelty which marked the European invasion of +the West Indies and the Americas. The Newest World began its +acquaintance with civilisation under fairly happy auspices. + +It was not until the middle of the seventeenth century that a scientific +expedition brought the South Pacific before the attention of Britain. A +transit of Venus across the sun promised to yield valuable knowledge as +to the nature of solar phenomena. To observe the transit under the best +conditions, astronomers knew that a station in the South Seas was +necessary, and Lieutenant Cook, R.N., an officer who had already +distinguished himself in the work of exploration, was promoted to be +Captain and entrusted to lead a scientific expedition to Otaheite. Added +to his commission was an injunction to explore the South Seas if time +and opportunity offered. Captain Cook was of the type which makes time +and opportunity. Certainly there was little in the equipment of his +expedition to justify an extension of its duties after the transit of +Venus had been duly observed. But he took it that his duty was to +explore the South Seas, and explore them he did, incidentally annexing +for the British Empire the Continent of Australia. + +That was in 1770. But still there was so little inviting in the prospect +of settlement in the South Seas that it was some eighteen years before +any effort was made to follow up by colonisation this annexation by +Captain Cook. When the effort was made it was not on very dignified +lines. The American colonies had at one time served as an outlet for the +overflow of the British prisons. The War of Independence had closed that +channel. The overcrowding of the British prisons became desperate, and, +because it was necessary to find some relief for this--not because it +was considered advantageous to populate the new possession--the First +Fleet sailed for the foundation of Australia in 1788. + +We shall see in subsequent chapters how the reluctance of the governing +Power of the British race in the Home Country to establish an Empire in +the South Pacific found a curious response in the stubborn resoluteness +of the colonists who settled in Australia and New Zealand to be more +English than the English themselves, to be as aggressively Imperialistic +almost as the men of the Elizabethan era. (What might almost be called +the "Jingoism" of the British nations in the South Pacific must have a +very important effect in settling the mastery of that ocean.) In the +present chapter the establishment of the British Power in the North +Pacific chiefly will be considered. + +Singapore is to-day the capital of the three Straits Settlements-- +Singapore, Penang, and Malacca, but it is the youngest of the three +settlements. Malacca is the oldest. It was taken possession of by the +Portuguese under Albuquerque in 1511, and held by them until 1641, when +the Dutch were successful in driving them out. The settlement remained +under the Government of the Dutch till 1795, when it was captured by +the English, and held by them till 1818, at which date it was restored +to the Dutch, and finally passed into British hands in pursuance of the +treaty with Holland of 1824. By that treaty it was arranged that the +Dutch should leave the Malay Peninsula, the British Government agreeing +at the same time to leave Sumatra to the Dutch. When Malacca was taken +possession of by the Portuguese in 1511, it was one of the great +centres for the commerce of the East; but under Dutch rule it dwindled, +and Penang acquired a monopoly of the trade of the Malayan Peninsula +and Sumatra, together with a large traffic with China, Siam, Borneo, +the Celebes, and other places in the Archipelago. When Singapore was +established Penang in its turn had to yield the first place to the new +city. + +Singapore was acquired for Britain by Sir Stamford Raffles in 1819, by +virtue of a treaty with the Johore princes. It was at first subordinate +to Bencoolen in Sumatra, but in 1823 it was placed under the Government +of Bengal; it was afterwards incorporated in 1826, with Penang and +Malacca, and placed under the Governor and Council of the Incorporated +Settlements. Singapore is now one of the great shipping ports of the +world, served by some fifty lines of steamers, and with a trade of over +20,000,000 tons a year. The harbour of Singapore is fortified, and the +port is indicated by one advanced school of British Imperialists as the +future chief base of a Fleet, contributed to by India, Australia, New +Zealand, South Africa, and Canada, and kept to a standard of strength +equal to that available to any other two Powers in the Pacific. Captain +Macaulay, in a strategical scheme for Imperial Defence which has been +received with deep attention in Great Britain, suggests:-- + +"The influence which an Indian Ocean Fleet, based on Colombo and +Singapore, would have on Imperial Defence can hardly be exaggerated. The +Indian Ocean--a British Mediterranean to the Pacific--with its openings +east and west in our hands, is a position of readiness for naval action +in the Western Pacific, the South Atlantic, or the Mediterranean. In the +first case it influences the defence of Canada and the Australasian +States; in the second, that of South Africa. An Indian Ocean Fleet can +reinforce, or be reinforced by the Fleets in European waters, if the +storm centre be confined to Europe or to the Pacific. As regards the +direct naval defence of the Australasian Provinces, no better position +could be chosen than that of a Fleet based on Singapore, with an +advanced base at Hong Kong, because it flanks all possible attack on +them. An advanced flank defence is better than any direct defence of so +large a coast-line as that of Australia from any point within it. +Moreover, Singapore and Hong Kong are much nearer to the naval bases of +any Powers in the Western Pacific than those countries are to Australia +or to Canada. Hence, in operations for the defence of any Province, they +favour offensive-defensive action on our part. And offensive-defensive +is the great characteristic of naval power. Any East Asian Power +contemplating aggression against Australasian or North American +territory must evidently first deal with the Indian Ocean Fleet. + +"It is impossible to ignore the strategical and political significance +of the Imperial triangle of India based on South Africa and the +Australasian States, and its influence in the solution of the new +problems of Imperial Defence. The effective naval defence of the +self-governing Provinces is best secured by a Fleet maintained in the +North Indian Ocean; and the reinforcement of the British garrison in +India is best secured by units of the Imperial Army maintained in the +self-governing Provinces. If these two conditions are satisfied, the +problem of the defence of the Mother Country is capable of easy +solution." + +Hong Kong is of less strategical importance than Singapore. But it is +marked out as the advanced base of British naval power in the North +Pacific. It has one of the most magnificent harbours in the world, with +an area of ten square miles. The granite hills which surround it rise +between 2000 and 3000 feet high. The city of Victoria extends for four +miles at the base of the hills which protect the south side of the +harbour, and contains, with its suburbs, 326,961 inhabitants. It is the +present base of the China squadron, and is fortified and garrisoned. + +As already stated, the conditions which some years ago made the mastery +of the Pacific unimportant to India no longer exist, and the safety of +the Indian Empire depends almost as closely on the position in the +Pacific as the safety of England does on the position in the Atlantic. +But, except by making some references in future chapters on strategy and +on trade to her resources and possibilities, I do not propose to attempt +any consideration of India in this volume. That would unduly enlarge its +scope. In these days of quick communication, both power and trade are +very fluid, and there is really not any country of the earth which has +not in some way an influence on the Pacific. But so far as possible I +have sought to deal only with the direct factors. + +Having noted the British possessions in the North Pacific, it is +necessary to turn south and study the young "nations of the blood" below +the Equator before estimating British Power in the Pacific. + + + + +CHAPTER VII + +THE BRITISH CONTINENT IN THE PACIFIC + + +Those who seek to find in history the evidence of an all-wise purpose +might gather from the fantastic history of Australasia facts to confirm +their faith. Far back in prehistoric ages, this great island was cut +adrift from the rest of the world and left lonely and apart in the +Southern Pacific. A few prehistoric marsupials wandered over its +territory and were hunted by poor nomads of men, without art or +architecture, condemned by the conditions of their life to step aside +from the great onward current of human evolution. + +Over this land the winds swept and the rains fell, and, volcanic action +having ceased, the mountains were denuded and their deep stores of +minerals bared until gold lay about on the surface. Coal, copper, +silver, tin, and iron too, were made plentifully accessible. At the same +time enormous agricultural plains were formed in the interior, but under +climatic conditions which allowed no development of vegetable or animal +types without organised culture by a civilised people. + +Nature thus seemed to work consciously for the making of a country +uniquely fitted for civilisation by a White Race, whilst at the same +time ensuring that its aboriginal inhabitants should not be able to +profit by its betterment, and thus raise themselves to a degree of +social organisation which would allow them to resist an invading White +Race. In the year when Captain Cook acquired the Continent of Australia +for Great Britain, it was ripe for development by civilised effort in a +way which no other territory of the earth then was; and yet was so +hopelessly sterile to man without machinery and the other apparatus of +human science, that its aboriginal inhabitants were the most forlorn of +the world's peoples, living a starveling life dependent on poor hunting, +scanty fisheries and a few roots for existence. + +It needs no great stretch of fancy to see a mysterious design in the +world-history of Australia. Here was a great area of land stuffed with +precious and useful minerals, hidden away from the advancing +civilisation of man as effectually as if it had been in the planet Mars. +In other parts of the globe great civilisations rose and fell--the +Assyrian, the Egyptian, the Chinese, the Greek, the Roman,--all drawing +from the bowels of the earth her hidden treasures, and drawing on her +surface riches with successive harvests. In America, the Mexican, +Peruvian and other civilisations learned to gather from the great stocks +of Nature, and built up fabrics of greatness from her rifled treasures. +In Australia alone, amid dim, mysterious forests, the same prehistoric +animals roamed, the same poor nomads of men lived and died, neither +tilling nor mining the earth--tenants in occupation, content with a bare +and accidental livelihood in the midst of mighty riches. + +Australia too was not discovered by the White Man until the moment when +a young nation could be founded on the discovered principles of Justice. +To complete the marvel, as it would seem, Providence ordained that its +occupation and development should be by the one people most eminently +fitted for the founding of a new nation on the virgin soil. + +The fostering care of Nature did not end there. The early settlers +coming to Australia not only found that nothing had been drawn from the +soil or reef, that an absolutely virgin country was theirs to exploit, +but also were greeted by a singularly happy climate, free of all the +diseases which afflicted older lands. Prolific Australia, with all its +marvellous potentialities, lay open to them, with no warlike tribes to +enforce a bloody beginning to history, no epidemics to war against, no +savage beasts to encounter. And they were greeted by an energising +climate which seemed to encourage the best faculties of man, just as it +gave to harvests a wonderful richness and to herds a marvellous +fecundity. + +How it came to be that such a vast area of the earth's surface, so near +to the great Indian and Chinese civilisations, should have so long +remained unknown, it is difficult to understand. There is faint evidence +that the existence of the great Southern continent was guessed at in +very early days, but no attempt at exploration or settlement was made by +the Hindoos or the Chinese. When the Greeks, who had penetrated to India +under Alexander the Great, returned to their homes, they brought back +some talk of a continent south from India, and the later Greek +literature and some Latin writers have allusions to the tale. Marco Polo +(thirteenth century), during his voyages to the East Indies, seems to +have heard of a Southern continent, for he speaks of a Java Major, a +land much greater than the isle of Java (which he knew), and which was +probably either New Guinea or Australia. On a fifteenth-century map of +the world now in the British Museum there are indications of a knowledge +of the existence of Australia; and it is undoubtedly included in a map +of the world of the sixteenth century. + +But there was evidently no curiosity as to the suspected new continent. +Australia to-day contains not the slightest trace of contact with +ancient or Middle Ages civilisation. Exploration was attracted to the +East Indies and to Cathay by the tales of spices, scents, gold, silver, +and ivory. No such tales came from Australia. It was to prove the +greatest gold-producing country of the world, but its natives had no +hunger for the precious metal, though it was strewn about the ground in +great lumps in some places. Nor did sugar, spice, and ivory come from +the land; nor, indeed, any product of man's industry or Nature's +bounty. Wrapped in its mysterious grey-green forests, protected by a +coast-line which appeared always barren and inhospitable, Australia +remained unknown until comparatively modern times. + +In 1581 the Spaniards, under Magalhaes, reached the Philippine Islands +by sailing west from the South American coast. In the nature of things +their ships would have touched the coast of Australia. In 1606 De Quiros +and De Torres reached some of the Oceanian islands, and named one _Terra +Austrialia del Espiritu Santo_ (the Southern Land of the Holy Spirit). +As was the case with Columbus in his voyage of discovery to America, De +Quiros had not touched the mainland, but his voyage gave the name +"Australia" to the new continent. + +The English were late in the work of exploring the coast of Australia, +though as far back as 1624 there is a record of Sir William Courteen +petitioning King James I. for leave to plant colonies in "Terra +Australis." In 1688, William Dampier, in the _Cygnet_, touched at the +north-western coast of Australia. The next year, in H.M.S. _Roebuck_, he +paid a visit to the new land, and, on returning to England, put on +record his impressions of its fauna and flora. It was in 1770 that +Captain Cook made the first landing at Botany Bay. + +The British nation at the time could find no use for Australia. Annexed +in 1770 it was not colonised until 1787, when the idea was adopted of +using the apparently sterile and miserable Southern continent as a +depôt for enforced exiles. It was a happy chance that sent a "racketty" +element of British social life to be the first basis of the new +Australian population. The poachers, English Chartists, Irish Fenians, +Scottish land rebels (who formed the majority of the convicts sent to +Australia) were good as nation-building material. + +There was work to do there in the Pacific, there is further work in the +future, which calls for elements of audacity, of contempt for +convention, which are being worked out of the average British type. +There could be no greater contrast between, say, a London suburbanite, +whose life travels along an endless maze of little gravel paths between +fences and trimly-kept hedges, and the Australian of the "back country," +who any day may ride out solitary on a week's journey into a great +sun-baked wilderness, his life and that of his dog and his two horses +dependent on the accurate finding of a series of water-holes: his joy in +existence coming from the solitude and the desert, the companionship of +his three animals, his tobacco, and the thought of his "mate" somewhere, +whom he would meet after six months' absence with a handshake and a +monosyllable by way of greeting, and yet with the love of a fond +brother. + +That London suburbanite gives the key to his kindly and softly +sentimental character in his subscription to a society which devotes +itself to seeing that the suburban house cat is not left shut up without +food when a family goes away on holidays. That Australian shows how far +he has reverted to the older human type of relentless purpose when, in +the pursuit of his calling, he puts ten thousand sheep to the chance of +death from thirst. It is not that he is needlessly cruel, but that he is +sternly resolute. The same man would share his last water with his dog +in the desert to give both an equal chance of life. He feels the misery +of beasts but says nothing, and allows it to interfere nothing with his +purpose. + +There is a story of a clergyman coming to a back-country station in +Australia during the agony of a great drought. He asked of the squatter +permission to hold prayers for rain in the woolshed. The squatter turned +on him, fiercely gripping him by the arm. + +"Listen!" he cried. + +From all around came the hoarse, pitiful lowing and bleating of +thousands of animals dying of thirst and hunger. + +"Listen! If the Almighty does not hear _that_, will he hear us?" + +That is the type of man, bred from the wilder types of the British race, +who is the backbone of the Australian population, and who will be the +backbone of the resistance which the White Man will make to any overflow +of Asia along the Pacific littoral. + +The Australian took instinctively to his task in the work of White +civilisation--that of keeping the Asiatic out of Australia. In the early +days of the goldfields, the Chinese began to crowd to the continent, and +some squatters of those days designed to introduce them as cheap and +reliable shepherds. The mass of the White population protested, with +riot and rebellion in some cases. At one time it seemed as though the +guns of British warships would fire on Australian citizens in +vindication of the right of Chinese to enter Australia. But maternal +affection was stronger than logic. The cause of "White Australia" had +its way; and by poll taxes and other restrictive legislation any great +influx of Asiatics was stopped. At a later date the laws regarding alien +immigration were so strengthened that it is now almost impossible for a +coloured man to enter Australia as a colonist, even though he be a +British subject and a graduate of Oxford University. + +Around the ethics of the "White Australia" policy there has raged a +fierce controversy. But it is certain that, without that policy, without +an instinctive revolt on the part of the Australian colonists against +any intrusion of coloured races, Australia would be to-day an Asiatic +colony, still nominally held, perhaps, by a small band of White +suzerains, but ripe to fall at any moment into the hands of its +10,000,000 or 20,000,000 Asiatic inhabitants. + +Instead of that, Australia is at once the fortress which the White Race +has thinly garrisoned against an Asiatic advance southward, and the most +tempting prize to inspire the Asiatic to that advance. There is not the +least doubt that, given Australia, Japan could establish a power +threatening the very greatest in Europe. Her fecund people within a +couple of generations would people the coast-line and prepare for the +colonisation of the interior. Rich fields and rich mines put at the +disposal of a frugal and industrious people would yield enormous +material wealth. + +An organised China would put the island continent to even greater use. +But there Australia is, held by a tiny White population, which increases +very slowly (for men and women have the ideas of comfort and luxury +which lead to small families), but which is now fairly awake to the fact +that on the bosom of the Pacific and along its shores will be fought the +great race battles of the future. + +It is curious for the peoples of Europe, accustomed to associate extreme +democracy and socialistic leanings with ideals of pacificism and +"international brotherhood," to observe the warlike spirit of the +Australian peoples. There are no folk more "advanced" in politics. Their +ideal is frankly stated to be to make a "working man's Paradise" of the +continent. Yet they are entering cheerfully on a great naval +expenditure, and their adoption of a system of universal training for +military service provides the only instance, except that of Switzerland, +where the responsibility of national defence is freely accepted by the +citizen manhood of the nation. + +Universal training for military service in Australia, legally enforced +in 1909, was made inevitable in 1903, when in taking over the +administration of the defences the first Commonwealth Government +provided in its Defence Act for the levying of the whole male population +for service in case of war. That provision was evidence of the wholesome +and natural view taken by Australians of the citizen's duty to his +nation. It was also evidence of an ignorance of, or a blindness to, the +conditions of modern campaigning. Raw levies, if equipped with courage +and hardihood, could be of almost immediate usefulness in the warfare of +a century ago. To-day they would be worse than useless, a burden on the +commissariat, no support in the field. The logical Australian mind was +quick to recognise this. Within five years it was established that, +admitting a universal duty to serve, a necessary sequence was universal +training for service. + +One argument the Australian advocates of universal service had not to +meet. In that pioneer country the feeling which is responsible for a +kind of benevolent cosmopolitanism, and finds expression in Peace +Societies, had little chance of growth. The direct conflict with Nature +had brought a sense of the reality of life's struggle, of its reality +and of its essential beauty. There is no maundering horror of the +natural facts of existence. Australian veins when scratched bleed red +blood, not a pale ichor of Olympus. The combative instinct is recognised +as a part of human nature, a necessary and valuable part. That +defencelessness is the best means of defence would never occur to the +Australian as being anything but an absurd idea. He recognises the part +which the combative instinct has played, the part it still must play in +civilisation: how in its various phases it has assisted man in his +upward path; how it has still some part to play in the preservation and +further evolution of civilisation. + +The original fighting instinct was purely brutal--a rough deadly +scramble for food. But it undoubtedly had its value in securing the +survival of the best types for the propagation of the species. With its +first great refinement, in becoming the fight for mateship, the +combative instinct was still more valuable to evolution. The next step, +when fights came to be for ideas, marked a rapid growth of civilisation. +Exclude chivalry, patriotism, Imperialism, from the motives of the +world, and there would never have been a great civilisation. + +A distinguished British statesman spoke the other day of the expenditure +on armaments as possibly a sign of "relapsing into barbarism." He might +more truly have described it as an insurance against barbarism--at once +a sign of the continued existence of the forces which made civilisation, +and a proof that the advanced races are prepared to guard with the sword +what they have won by the sword. The Pacific has seen the tragedy of one +nation which, having won to a suave and graceful civilisation, came to +utter ruin through the elimination of the combative instinct from its +people. The Peruvians had apparently everything to make life happy: but +because they had eliminated the fighting instinct their civilisation was +shattered to fragments in a year by the irruption of a handful of +Spaniards. + +The Australian feels that safety and independence must be paid for with +strength, and not with abjectness. He does not wish to be another +Peruvian: and he builds up his socialistic Utopia with a sword in one +hand as was built a temple of Jerusalem. + +Some doubt having arisen in the Australian mind, after a system of +universal training had been adopted, whether the scheme of training was +sufficient, the greatest organiser of the British Army, Field Marshal +Lord Kitchener, was asked to visit the Commonwealth and report on that +point. His report suggested some slight changes, which were promptly +adopted, but on the whole he approved thoroughly of the proposed scheme, +though it provided periods of training which seem startlingly small to +the European soldier. But Lord Kitchener agreed, as every other +competent observer has agreed, that the Australian is so much of a +natural soldier owing to his pioneering habit of life, that it takes but +little special military discipline to make him an effective fighting +unit. + +Committed to a military system which will, in a short time, make some +200,000 citizens soldiers available in case of need, Australia's martial +enthusiasm finds expression also in a naval programme which is of great +magnitude for so small a people. In July 1909, an Imperial Conference on +Defence met in London, and the British Admiralty brought down certain +proposals for Imperial naval co-operation. _Inter alia_, the British +Admiralty memorandum stated:-- + +"In the opinion of the Admiralty, a Dominion Government desirous of +creating a Navy should aim at forming a distinct Fleet unit; and the +smallest unit is one which, while manageable in time of peace, is +capable of being used in its component parts in the time of war. + +"Under certain conditions the establishment of local defence flotillas, +consisting of torpedo craft and submarines, might be of assistance in +time of war to the operations of the Fleet, but such flotillas cannot +co-operate on the high seas in the wider duties of protection of trade +and preventing attacks from hostile cruisers and squadrons. The +operations of Destroyers and torpedo-boats are necessarily limited to +the waters near the coast or to a radius of action not far distant from +a base, while there are great difficulties in manning such a force and +keeping it always thoroughly efficient. + +"A scheme limited to torpedo craft would not in itself, moreover, be a +good means of gradually developing a self-contained Fleet capable of +both offence and defence. Unless a naval force--whatever its +size--complies with this condition, it can never take its proper place +in the organisation of an Imperial Navy distributed strategically over +the whole area of British interests. + +"The Fleet unit to be aimed at should, therefore, in the opinion of the +Admiralty, consist at least of the following: one armoured cruiser (new +_Indomitable_ class, which is of the _Dreadnought_ type), three +unarmoured cruisers (_Bristol_ class), six destroyers, three submarines, +with the necessary auxiliaries such as depôt and store ships, etc., +which are not here specified. + +"Such a Fleet unit would be capable of action not only in the defence of +coasts, but also of the trade routes, and would be sufficiently powerful +to deal with small hostile squadrons, should such ever attempt to act in +its waters. + +"Simply to man such a squadron, omitting auxiliary requirements and any +margin for reliefs, sickness, etc., the minimum numbers required would +be about 2300 officers and men, according to the Admiralty scheme of +complements. + +"The estimated first cost of building and arming such a complete Fleet +unit would be approximately £3,700,000, and the cost of maintenance, +including upkeep of vessels, pay, and interest and sinking fund, at +British rates, approximately £600,000 per annum. + +"The estimated cost of the officers and men required to man the ships +does not comprise the whole cost. There would be other charges to be +provided for, such as the pay of persons employed in subsidiary +services, those undergoing training, sick, in reserve, etc. + +"As the armoured cruiser is the essential part of the Fleet unit, it is +important that an _Indomitable_ of the _Dreadnought_ type should be the +first vessel to be built in commencing the formation of a Fleet unit. +She should be officered and manned, as far as possible, by Colonial +officers and men, supplemented by the loan of Imperial officers and men +who might volunteer for the service. While on the station the ship would +be under the exclusive control of the Dominion Government as regards her +movements and general administration, but officers and men would be +governed by regulations similar to the King's Regulations, and be under +naval discipline. The question of pay and allowances would have to be +settled on lines the most suitable to each Dominion Government +concerned. The other vessels, when built, would be treated in the same +manner. + +"It is recognised that, to carry out completely such a scheme as that +indicated, would ultimately mean a greater charge for naval defence than +that which the Dominions have hitherto borne; but, on the other hand, +the building of a _Dreadnought_ (or its equivalent), which certain +Governments have offered to undertake, would form part of the scheme, +and therefore, as regards the most expensive item of the shipbuilding +programme suggested, no additional cost to those Governments would be +involved. + +"_Pari passu_ with the creation of the Fleet unit, it would be necessary +to consider the development of local resources in everything which +relates to the maintenance of a Fleet. A careful inquiry should be made +into the shipbuilding and repairing establishments, with a view to their +general adaptation to the needs of the local squadron. Training schools +for officers and men would have to be established; arrangements would +have to be made for the manufacture, supply, and replenishment of the +various naval, ordnance, and victualling stores required by the +squadron. + +"All these requirements might be met according to the views of the +Dominion Governments, in so far as the form and manner of the provision +made are concerned. But as regards shipbuilding, armaments, and warlike +stores, etc., on the one hand, and training and discipline in peace and +war, on the other, there should be one common standard. If the Fleet +unit maintained by a Dominion is to be treated as an integral part of +the Imperial forces, with a wide range of interchangeability among its +component parts with those forces, its general efficiency should be the +same, and the facilities for refitting and replenishing His Majesty's +ships, whether belonging to a Dominion Fleet or to the Fleet of the +United Kingdom, should be the same. Further, as it is a _sine quâ non_ +that successful action in time of war depends upon unity of command and +direction, the general discipline must be the same throughout the whole +Imperial service, and without this it would not be possible to arrange +for that mutual co-operation and assistance which would be +indispensable in the building up and establishing of a local naval force +in close connection with the Royal Navy. It has been recognised by the +Colonial Governments that, in time of war, the local naval forces should +come under the general directions of the Admiralty." + +The Commonwealth of Australia representatives accepted in full the +proposals as set forth in the Admiralty memorandum. It was agreed that +the Australian Fleet unit thus constituted should form part of the +Eastern Fleet of the Empire, to be composed of similar units of the +Royal Navy, to be known as the China and the East Indies units +respectively, and the Australian unit. + +The initial cost was estimated to be approximately: + + 1 armoured cruiser (new _Indomitable_ class). £2,000,000 + 3 unarmoured cruisers (_Bristols_) at £350,000. 1,050,000 + 6 destroyers (_River_ class) at £80,000 480,000 + 3 submarines (_C_ class) at £55,000 165,000 + ---------- + Total £3,695,000 + +The annual expenditure in connection with the maintenance of the Fleet +unit, pay of personnel, and interest on first cost and sinking fund, was +estimated to be about £600,000, to which amount a further additional sum +would have to be added in view of the higher rates of pay in Australia +and the cost of training and subsidiary establishments, making an +estimated total of £750,000 a year. + +The Imperial Government, until such time as the Commonwealth could take +over the whole cost, offered to assist the Commonwealth Government by an +annual contribution of £250,000 towards the maintenance of the complete +Fleet unit; but the offer was refused, and the Australian taxpayer took +on the whole burden at once. + +Still not content, the Australian Government arranged for a British +Admiral of standing to visit the Commonwealth and report on its naval +needs. His report suggested the quick construction of a Fleet and of +docks, etc., involving an expenditure, within a very short time, of +£28,000,000. There was no grumbling at this from the Labour Party +Government then in power. "We have called in a doctor. We must take his +prescription," said one of the Australian Cabinet philosophically. + +The Australian, so aggressive in his patriotism, so determined in his +warlike preparations, so fitted by heredity and environment for martial +exploits, is to-day the greatest factor in the Southern Pacific. His +aggressiveness, which is almost truculence, is a guarantee that the +British Empire will never be allowed to withdraw from a sphere into +which it entered reluctantly. It will be necessary to point out in a +future chapter how the failure, so far, of the Australian colonists to +people their continent adequately constitutes one of the grave dangers +to the British Power in the Pacific. That failure has been the prompting +for much criticism. It has led to some extraordinary proposals being +put forward in Great Britain, one of the latest being that half of +Australia should be made over to Germany as a peace offering! But, apart +from all failures and neglect of the past (which may be remedied for the +future: indeed are now in process of remedy), Australia is probably +potentially the greatest asset of the British race. Her capacity as a +varied food producer in particular gives her value. There is much talk +in the world to-day of "places in the sun." Claims founded on national +pride are put forward for the right to expand. Very soon there must be a +far more weighty and dangerous clamour for "places at table," for the +right to share in the food lands of the Earth. Populations begin to +press against their boundaries. Modern science has helped the race of +man to reach numbers once considered impossible. Machinery, preventive +medicine, surgery, sanitation, all have helped to raise vastly his +numbers. The feeding of these increasing numbers becomes with each year +a more difficult problem. Territories do not stretch with populations. +Even the comparatively new nation of the United States finds her food +supply and raw material supply tightening, and has just been checked in +an attempt to obtain a lien on the natural resources of the British +Dominion of Canada. Now, excluding manufactures, the 4½ million people +of Australia produce wealth from farm and field and mine to the total of +£134,500,000 a year. Those 4½ millions could be raised to 40 millions +without much lessening of the average rate of production (only mining +and forestry would be affected). + +The food production possibilities of Australia make her of enormous +future importance. They make her, too, the object of the bitterest envy +on the part of the overcrowded, hungry peoples of the Asiatic littoral. +The Continent must be held by the British race. It would appear to be +almost as certain that it must be attacked one day by an Asiatic race. + + + + +CHAPTER VIII + +NEW ZEALAND AND THE SMALLER BRITISH PACIFIC COLONIES + + +A thousand miles east of Australia is another aggressive young democracy +preparing to arm to the teeth for the conflict of the Pacific, and eager +to embark upon a policy of forward Imperialism on its own account: with +aspirations, indeed, to be made overlord of all the Pacific islands +under the British Flag. + +New Zealand had a softer beginning than Australia, and did not win, +therefore, the advantages and disadvantages springing from the wild type +of colonists who gave to the Australian Commonwealth a sturdy +foundation. Nor has New Zealand the "Bush" conditions which make the +back-country Australian quite a distinct type of white man. On those hot +plains of Australia, cruel to a first knowledge, very rich in profit and +welcome to the man who learns their secrets, most potent of attraction +with familiarity and mastery, Nature exacts from man a resolute wooing +before she grants a smile of favour. But, once conquered, she responds +with most generous lavishness. In return, however, she sets her stamp +on the men who come to her favour, and they show that stamp on their +faces. Thin, wiry, with deep-set peering eyes, they suggest sun-dried +men. But whilst leaching out the fat and softness from them, Nature has +compensated the "Bush" Australians with an enduring vitality. No other +men, probably, of the world's peoples could stand such strain of work, +of hunger, of thirst. No men have finer nerves, greater courage. They +must dice with Death for their lives, time and again staking all on +their endurance, and on the chance of the next water-hole being still +unparched. This gives them a contempt of danger, and some contempt of +life, which shows in a cruel touch in their character. + +Imagine a white man who, keeping all his education and maintaining his +sympathy with modern science and modern thought, withal reverts in some +characteristics to the type of the Bedouin of the desert, and you have +the typical Australian Bushman. He is fierce in his friendships, stern +in his enmities, passionately fond of his horse, so contemptuous of +dwellings that he will often refuse to sleep in them, Arabian in his +hospitality, fatalistic in his philosophy. He has been known to inflict +torture on a native whom he suspects of concealing the whereabouts of a +water-hole, and yet will almost kill himself to get help for a mate in +need. He is so independent that he hates working for a "boss," and will +rarely take work on wages, preferring to live as his own master, by +hunting or fossicking, or by undertaking contract work for forest +clearing. + +There is material for a great warrior nation in these Bushmen, with +their capacity for living anyhow, their deadliness as shots, their +perfect command of the horse, their Stoic cruelty which would enable +them to face any hardship without flinching, and to inflict any revenge +without remorse. + +New Zealand has not the "Bushman" type. But as some compensation, the +early New Zealand settlers had the advantage of meeting at the very +outset an effective savage. The Australian learned all his hardihood +from Nature; the New Zealand colonist had the Maori to teach him, not +only self-reliance but community reliance. Whilst Nature was very kind +to him, sparing the infliction of the drought, giving always a +reasonable surety of food, he was obliged to walk warily in fear of the +powerful and warlike Maori tribes. The phenomenon, so frequent in +Australia, of a squatter leading his family, his flocks, and his herds +out into the wilderness and fighting out there, alone, a battle with +Nature was rare in New Zealand. There the White settlers were forced +into groups by the fear of and respect for the Maoris. From the first +they knew the value of a fortified post. Until a very late period of +their history they saw frequently the uniforms of troops from Great +Britain helping them to garrison the towns against the natives. + +As was the case with Australia, the British Empire was very reluctant to +assume control of New Zealand. Captain Cook, who annexed Australia in +1770, had visited New Zealand in 1769, but had not acquired it formally +for the British Crown. The same explorer returned to New Zealand several +years after. But from the date of his last departure, 1776, three +decades passed before any White settlement was attempted. In 1788 the +colonisation of Australia was begun, but it was not until 1814 that a +small body of Europeans left Sydney and settled in New Zealand. The Rev. +Samuel Marsden, who had been Chaplain to the Convict Colony of New South +Wales, was the leader of the band, and its mission was to Christianise +the natives. A little later the Wesleyan Church founded a Mission in the +same neighbourhood. In 1825 a Company was formed in London to colonise +New Zealand, and it sent away a band of pioneers in the ship _Rosanna_. +The wild mien of the natives so thoroughly frightened these colonists +that almost all of them returned to England. Desultory efforts at +settlement followed, small bands of British subjects forming tiny +stations at various points of the New Zealand coast, and getting on as +well as they might with the natives, for they had no direct protection +from the British Government, which was entirely opposed to any idea of +annexing the group. There was no fever for expansion in England at the +time. The United States had broken away. Canada seemed to be on the +point of secession. The new settlement in Australia promised little. But +the hand of the British Government was destined to be forced in the +matter, and, willy-nilly, Britain had to take over a country which is +now one of her most valued possessions. + +Mr Edward Gibbon Wakefield was responsible for forcing on the British +Government the acquisition of New Zealand. The era was one of +philanthropy and keen thought for social reform in Great Britain. The +doctrines of the French Revolution still reverberated through Europe, +and the rights of humanity were everywhere preached to men confronted +with the existence of great social misery, which seemed to deny to the +majority of mankind even the degree of comfort enjoyed by animals. +Wakefield's remedy was the emigration of the surplus population of the +British islands--well, the British islands except Ireland, to which +country and its inhabitants Wakefield had an invincible antipathy. The +prospectus of the Company to colonise New Zealand stated: + +"The aim of this Company is not confined to mere emigration, but is +directed to colonisation in its ancient and systematic form. Its object +is to transplant English society with its various graduations in due +proportions, carrying out our laws, customs, associations, habits, +manners, feelings--everything of England, in short, but the soil. We +desire so now to cast the foundations of the colony that in a few +generations New Zealand shall offer to the world a counterpart of our +country in all the most cherished peculiarities of our own social system +and national character, as well as in wealth and power." + +In due time twelve ships carrying 1125 people sailed for New Zealand. +That was the beginning of a steady flow of emigrants mostly recruited by +various Churches, and settled in groups in different parts of the New +Zealand islands--members of the Free Church of Scotland at Otago, of the +Church of England at Canterbury, men of Devon and Cornwall men at New +Plymouth. + +The British Government could hardly shake off all responsibility for +these exiles. But it did its best to avoid annexation, and even adopted +the remarkable expedient of recognising the Maoris as a nation, and +encouraging them to choose a national standard. The Maori Flag was +actually flown on the high seas for a while, and at least on one +occasion received a salute from a British warship. But no standard could +give a settled polity to a group of savage tribes. The experiment of +setting up "The Independent Tribes of New Zealand" as a nation failed. +In 1840, Great Britain formally took over the New Zealand islands from +the natives under the treaty of Waitangi, which is said to be the only +treaty on record between a white race and a coloured race which has been +faithfully kept to this day. + +"This famous instrument," writes a New Zealand critic, "by which the +Maoris, at a time when they were apparently unconquerable, voluntarily +ceded sovereign rights over their country to Queen Victoria, is +practically the only compact between a civilised and an uncivilised race +which has been regarded and honoured through generations of +difficulties, distrust, and even warfare. By guaranteeing to the Maori +the absolute ownership of their patrimonial lands and the enjoyment of +their ancestral rights and customs, it enabled them to take their place +as fully enfranchised citizens of the British Empire, and to present the +solitary example of a dark race surviving contact with a white, and +associating with it on terms of mutual regard, equality and unquestioned +loyalty. The measure of this relationship is evident from the fact that +Maori interests are represented by educated natives in both houses of +the New Zealand Parliament and in the Ministry. The strict observance of +the Treaty of Waitangi is part and parcel of the national faith of the +New Zealanders, and a glorious monument to the high qualities of one of +the finest races of aboriginal peoples the world has ever seen." + +The New Zealand colonists, having won the blessing of the British Flag, +were not well content. Very shortly afterwards we find Mr James Edward +FitzGerald writing to Wakefield, who was contemplating a trip to New +Zealand. + +"After all, this place is but a village. Its politics are not large +enough for you. But there are politics on this side the world which +would be so. It seems unquestionable that in the course of a very few +years--sometimes I think months--the Australian colonies will declare +their independence. We shall live to see an Australasian Empire +rivalling the United States in greatness, wealth and power. There is a +field for great statesmen. Only yesterday I was saying, talking about +you, that if you come across the world it must be to Australia; just in +time to draw up the Declaration of Independence." + +But that phase passed. New Zealand to-day emulates Australia in a +fervent Imperial patriotism, and at the 1911 Imperial Conference her +Prime Minister, Sir Joseph Ward, was responsible for the following +proposal which was too forward in its Imperialism to be immediately +acceptable to his fellow delegates: + +"That the Empire has now reached a stage of Imperial development which +renders it expedient that there should be an Imperial Council of State, +with representatives from all the self-governing parts of the Empire, in +theory and in fact advisory to the Imperial Government on all questions +affecting the interests of his Majesty's Dominions oversea." + +He urged the resolution on the following grounds: + +(1) Imperial unity; (2) organised Imperial defence; (3) the equal +distribution of the burden of defence throughout the Empire; (4) the +representation of self-governing oversea Dominions in an Imperial +Parliament of defence for the purpose of determining peace or war, the +contributions to Imperial defence, foreign policy as far as it affects +the Empire, international treaties so far as they affect the Empire, and +such other Imperial matters as might by agreement be transferred to such +Parliament. + +In advocating his resolution Sir Joseph Ward made an interesting +forecast of the future of the British nations whose shores were washed +by the Pacific. He estimated that if the present rate of increase were +maintained, Canada would have in twenty-five years from now between +30,000,000 and 40,000,000 inhabitants. In Australia, South Africa, and +New Zealand the proportionate increase could not be expected to be so +great, but he believed that in twenty-five years' time the combined +population of those oversea Dominions would be much greater than that of +the United Kingdom. Those who controlled the destinies of the British +Empire would have to consider before many years had passed the expansion +of these oversea countries into powerful nations, all preserving their +own local autonomy, all being governed to suit the requirements of the +people within their own territory, but all deeply concerned in keeping +together in some loose form of federation to serve the general interests +of all parts of the Empire. + +At a later stage, in reply to Sir Wilfrid Laurier, Prime Minister of +Canada, Sir Joseph Ward indulged in an even more optimistic prophecy. +The United States, he said, had something like 100,000,000 people. The +prospective possibility of Canada for settlement purposes was not less +than that of the United States, and the Dominion was capable of holding +a population of 100,000,000 in the future. Australia also was capable of +holding a similar number, although it would necessarily be a great +number of years before that position was reached. South Africa, too, +could hold 100,000,000 people. It was no exaggeration to suggest that +those three Dominions were capable of holding 300,000,000 of people with +great comfort as compared with certain overcrowded countries. New +Zealand, in the opinion of many well-qualified men, could carry upwards +of 40,000,000 people with comparative ease and comfort. + +But these figures are hardly scientific. Climatic and other +considerations will prevent Canada from reaching quite the same degree +of greatness as the United States. British South Africa could "hold" +100,000,000 people, but it could not support them on present +appearances. The possibilities of Australian settlement are difficult to +be exaggerated in view of the steady dwindling of the "desert" area in +the light of recent research and exploration, and of the fact that all +her area is blessed with a genial climate. New Zealand, to keep +40,000,000 people, would need, however, to have a density of 400 people +per square mile, a density surpassed to-day in Belgium and Holland but +not reached by Great Britain. A fairly conservative estimate of the +possibilities of the British Empire would allow it for the future a +white population of 200,000,000, of whom at least half would be grouped +near the shores of the Pacific. Presuming a British Imperial Federation +on Sir Joseph Ward's lines with such a population, and the mastery of +the Pacific would be settled. But that is for the future, the far +future. + +Sir Joseph Ward, in the event, was not able to carry the Imperial +Conference with him, the majority of the delegates considering that the +time had not yet come for the organisation of an Imperial Federal +system. But it is possible that with the passing of time and the growth +of the population of the Dominions overseas, some such system may +evolve: and a British Empire Parliament may sit one day at Westminster, +at Vancouver or at Sydney. Certainly the likelihood is that the +numerical balance of the British race will shift one day from the +Atlantic to the Pacific. + +Following Australia's example, New Zealand has adopted a system of +universal training for military service, but there are indications that +she will not enforce it quite so rigorously as her neighbour. In the +matter of naval defence, at the Conference of 1909 the New Zealand +attitude was thus defined by her Prime Minister:-- + +"I favour one great Imperial Navy with all the Overseas Dominions +contributing, either in ships or money, and with naval stations at the +self-governing Dominions supplied with ships by and under the control of +the Admiralty. I, however, realise the difficulties, and recognise that +Australia and Canada in this important matter are doing that which their +respective Governments consider to be best; but the fact remains that +the alterations that will be brought about upon the establishment of an +Australian unit will alter the present position with New Zealand. + +"New Zealand's maritime interests in her own waters, and her dependent +islands in the Pacific would, under the altered arrangements, be almost +entirely represented by the Australian Fleet unit, and not, as at +present, by the Imperial Fleet. This important fact, I consider, +necessitates some suitable provision being made for New Zealand, which +country has the most friendly feeling in every respect for Australia and +her people, and I am anxious that in the initiation of new arrangements +with the Imperial Government under the altered conditions, the interests +of New Zealand should not be over-looked. I consider it my duty to point +this out, and to have the direct connection between New Zealand and the +Royal Navy maintained in some concrete form. + +"New Zealand will supply a _Dreadnought_ for the British Navy as already +offered, the ship to be under the control of and stationed wherever the +Admiralty considers advisable. + +"I fully realise that the creation of specific units, one in the East, +one in Australia, and, if possible, one in Canada, would be a great +improvement upon the existing condition of affairs, and the fact that +the New Zealand _Dreadnought_ was to be the flag-ship of the +China-Pacific unit is, in my opinion, satisfactory. I, however, consider +it is desirable that a portion of the China-Pacific unit should remain +in New Zealand waters, and I would suggest that two of the new "Bristol" +cruisers, together with three destroyers and two submarines, should be +detached from the China station in time of peace and stationed in New +Zealand waters; that these vessels should come under the flag of the +Admiral of the China unit; that the flagship should make periodical +visits to New Zealand waters; and that there should be an interchange in +the service of the cruisers between New Zealand and China, under +conditions to be laid down. + +"The ships should be manned, as far as possible, by New Zealand officers +and men, and, in order that New Zealanders might be attracted to serve +in the Fleet, local rates should be paid to those New Zealanders who +enter, in the same manner as under the present Australian and New +Zealand agreement, such local rates being treated as deferred pay. + +"The determination of the agreement with Australia has, of necessity, +brought up the position of New Zealand under that joint agreement. I +therefore suggest that on completion of the China unit, the present +agreement with New Zealand should cease, that its contribution of +£100,000 per annum should continue and be used to pay the difference in +the rates of pay to New Zealanders above what would be paid under the +ordinary British rate. If the contribution for the advanced rate of pay +did not amount to £100,000 per annum, any balance to be at the disposal +of the Admiralty. + +"The whole of this Fleet unit to be taken in hand and completed before +the end of 1912, and I should be glad if the squadron as a whole would +then visit New Zealand on the way to China, leaving the New Zealand +detachment there under its senior officer." + +From the difference between the naval arrangements of Australia and New +Zealand can be gathered some hints of the difference between the +national characteristics of the two young nations. Australia is +aggressively independent in all her arrangements: loyal to the British +Empire and determined to help its aims in every way, but to help after +her own fashion and with armies and navies recruited and trained by +herself. New Zealand, with an equal Imperial zeal, has not the same +national self-consciousness and is willing to allow her share of naval +defence to take the form of a cash payment. Probably the most effective +naval policy of New Zealand would be founded on a close partnership with +Australia, the two nations combining to maintain one Fleet. But that New +Zealand does not seem to desire. She is, however, content to be a +partner with Australia in one detail of military administration. The +military college for the training of officers at the Australian Federal +capital is shared with New Zealand. The present Prime Minister of +Australia, Mr Fisher, is taking steps towards securing a closer defence +bond with New Zealand.[4] + +In an aspiration towards forward Imperialism, New Zealand is fully at +one with Australia. But she has the idea that the control of the +Southern Pacific, outside of the continent of Australia, is the right of +New Zealand, and dreams of a New Zealand Empire embracing the island +groups of Polynesia. It will be one of the problems of the future for +the British Power to restrain the exuberant racial pride of these South +Pacific nations, who see nothing in the European situation which should +interfere with a full British control of the South Pacific. + +In addition to Australia and New Zealand, the British Empire has a +number of minor possessions in the South Pacific. In regard to almost +all of them, the same tale of reluctant acceptance has to be told. New +Guinea was annexed by the Colony of Queensland, anxious to set on foot a +foreign policy of her own, in 1883. The British Government repudiated +the annexation, and in the following year reluctantly consented to take +over for the Empire a third of the great island on condition that the +Australian States agreed to guarantee the cost of the administration of +the new possession. The Fiji Group was offered to Great Britain by King +Thakombau in 1859, and was refused. Some English settlers then began to +administer the group on a system of constitutional government under +Thakombau. It was not until 1874 that the British Government accepted +these rich islands, and then somewhat ungraciously and reluctantly, +influenced to the decision by the fact that the alternative was German +acquisition. + +It was no affectation of coyness on the part of the successive British +Governments which dictated a refusal when South Pacific annexations were +mooted. Time after time it was made clear that the Home Country wanted +no responsibilities there. Yet to-day, as the result mainly of the +impulse of Empire and adventure in individual British men, the British +Flag flies over the whole continent of Australia, Tasmania, New Zealand, +a part of New Guinea, Fiji, and the Ellice, Gilbert, Kermadec, Friendly, +Chatham, Cook, and many other groups. It is a strange instance of +greatness thrust upon a people. + +FOOTNOTES: + +[4] Since writing, in March 1912, there has been an attempt on the part +of the Australian Prime Minister to come to some closer naval +arrangement with New Zealand; and the attempt seems to promise to be +successful. + + + + +CHAPTER IX + +THE NATIVE RACES + + +The native races of the South Pacific, with the possible exception of +the Maori, will have no influence in settling the destiny of the ocean. +Neither the Australian aboriginal nor the Kanaka--under which last +general title may be grouped all the tribes of Papua, the Solomons, the +New Hebrides and other Oceanic islands--will provide the foundation of a +nation. It is one of the curiosities of world-history that no great race +has ever survived which had its origin in a land south of the Equator. +From the earliest civilisations to the latest, there is not a single +instance of a people of the southern hemisphere exercising any notable +effect on the world's destinies. Sometimes there seems no adequate +reason for this. That Africa north of the Equator should have produced a +great civilisation, which was the early guide and instructor of the +European civilisations, may be explained in part by the curious +phenomenon of the Nile delta, a tract of land the irrigation of which at +regular intervals by mysterious natural forces prompted inquiry, and +suggested that all the asperities of Nature could be softened by effort. +(The spirit of inquiry and the desire for artificial comfort are the +great promptings to civilisation.) But it is difficult to understand why +in America the aboriginal Mexicans should have been so much more warlike +than the Peruvians or any other people in South America; and why the +West Pacific should wash with its northern waters the lands of two great +races, and with its southern waters flow past lands which, though of +greater fertility, remained almost empty, or else were peopled by +childlike races, careless of progress and keen only to enjoy the simple +happiness offered by Nature's bounty. + +The Australian aboriginal race is rapidly dwindling: one of its +branches, that which populated the fertile and temperate island of +Tasmania, is already extinct. In Tasmania, reacting to the influence of +a mild and yet stimulating climate, a climate comparable with that of +Devon in England, but more sunny, the Australasian native had won to his +highest point of development. Apparently, too, he had won to his highest +possible point, for there is evidence that for many generations no +progress at all had been made towards civilisation. Yet that point was +so low in the stage of evolution that it was impossible for the poor +natives to take any part, either as a separate race, or by mingling +their blood with another race, in the future of the Pacific. The black +Australian is a primitive rather than a degraded man. Most ethnologists +have concluded that this black Australian is a Caucasian. Wallace +ascribes to him kinship with the Veddas and the Ainus of Asia. Stratz +takes the Australian as the prototype of all the races of man. +Schoetensack contends that the human race had its origin in the +Australian continent. + +But, however dignified by ancestry, the Australian aboriginal was +pathetically out of touch with modern civilisation. He broke down +utterly at its advent, not so much because of his bad qualities as +because of his childishness. Not only were alcohol, opium and greed +strange to him, but also weapons of steel and horses and clothing. He +had never learnt to dig, to build, to weave. War organisation had not +been thought of, and his tribal fights were prodigal of noise but +sparing of slaughter. When the White Man came, it was inevitable that +this simple primitive should dwindle from the face of the earth. It is +not possible to hold out any hope for the future of the Australian +blacks. They can never emulate the Maoris of New Zealand, who will take +a small share in the building up of a nation. All that may be hoped for +is that their certain end will be kept back as long as is humanly +possible, and that their declining days will be softened by all +kindness. A great reserve in the Northern Territory--a reserve from +which the White population would be jealously excluded, and almost as +jealously the White fashions of clothing and house-building--holds out +the best hope for their future. It is comforting to think that the +Australian Government is now resolved to do all in its power for the +aboriginals. Indeed, to be just, authority has rarely lacked in +kindness of intention; it has been the cruelty of individuals acting in +defiance of authority, but aided by the supineness of authority, that +has been responsible for most of the cruelty. + +The Maori or native New Zealander was of a different type. The Maori was +an immigrant to New Zealand. Some time back there was an overflow of +population from the fertile sub-tropical islands of Malaysia. A tribe +which had already learned some of the arts of life, which was of a proud +and warlike character, took to the sea, as the Norsemen did in Europe, +and sought fresh lands for colonisation. Not one wave, but several, of +this outflow of colonists struck New Zealand. The primitive people +there, the Morioris, could offer but little resistance to the warlike +Malaysians, and speedily were vanquished, a few remnants finding refuge +in the outlying islets of the New Zealand group. Probably much the same +type of emigrant occupied Hawaii at one time, for the Hawaiian and the +Maori have much in common. But whilst the perpetual summer of Hawaii +softened and enervated its colonists, the bracing and vigorous climate +of New Zealand had a precisely opposite effect. The dark race of the +Pacific reached there a very high state of development. + +The Maori system of government was tribal, and there does not seem to +have been, up to the time of the coming of the White Man, any attempt on +the part of one chief to seize supreme power and become king. Land was +held on a communal system, and cultivated fairly well. Art existed, and +was applied to boat-building, to architecture, to the embroidering of +fabrics, to the carving of stone and wood. War was the great pastime, +and cannibalism was customary. Probably this practice was brought by the +Maoris from their old home. If it had not been, it might well have +sprung up under the strange conditions of life in the new country, for +New Zealand naturally possessed not a single mammal, not a beast whose +flesh might be eaten. There were birds and lizards, and that was all. +The Maoris brought with them dogs, which were bred for eating, but were +too few in number to provide a satisfactory food-supply; and rats, which +were also eaten. With these exceptions there was no flesh food, and the +invitation to cannibalism was clear. + +A more pleasant feature of the national life of the Maori was a high +degree of chivalry. In war and in love he seems to have had very much +the same ideas of conduct as the European of the Age of Chivalry. He +liked the combat for the combat's own sake, and it is recorded as one of +the incidents of the Maori War that when a besieged British force ran +short of ammunition, the Maori enemy halved with them their supply, "so +as to have a fair fight." + +In his love affairs the Maori was romantic and poetic. His legends and +his native poetry suggest a state of society in which there was a high +respect for women, who had to be wooed and won, and were not the mere +chattels of the men-warriors. Since this respect for womenkind is a +great force for civilisation, there is but little doubt that, if the +Maoris had been left undisturbed for a few more centuries, they would +have evolved a state of civilisation comparable with that of the +Japanese or the Mexicans. + +When Captain Cook visited New Zealand in 1769 the Maori race probably +numbered some 100,000. The results of coming into contact with +civilisation quickly reduced that number to about 50,000. But there was +then a stay in the process of extinction. The Maori began to learn the +virtues as well as the vices of civilisation. "Pakeha" medicine and +sanitation were adopted, and the Maori birth-rate began to creep up, the +Maori death-rate to decrease. It is not probable that the Maori race +will ever come to such numbers as to be a factor of importance in the +Pacific. But it will have some indirect influence. Having established +the right to grow up side by side with the White colonists, possessing +full political and social rights, the Maoris will probably modify +somewhat the New Zealand national type. We shall see in New Zealand, +within a reasonable time, a population of at least 10,000,000 of people, +of whom perhaps 1,000,000 will be Maoris. The effect of this mixture of +the British colonising type with a type somewhat akin to the Japanese +will be interesting to watch. In all probability New Zealand will +shelter a highly aggressive and a fiercely patriotic nation in the +future (as indeed she does at present). + +The Malay States bred a vigorous and courageous race of seamen, and +Malay blood has been dispersed over many parts of the Pacific, Malays +probably providing the chief parent stock both for the Hawaiians and the +Maoris. But the Malay Power has been broken up to such an extent that a +Malay nation is now impossible. Since the British overlordship of the +Malay Peninsula, the Chinese have been allowed free access to the land +and free trading rights; and they have ousted the original inhabitants +to a large extent. + +The Maori excepted, no race of Polynesia or Melanesia will survive to +affect the destinies of the Pacific Ocean. Nature was cruelly kind to +the Kanaka peoples in the past, and they must pay for their happiness +now. In the South Pacific islands, until White civilisation intruded, +the curse of Adam, which is that with the sweat of the brow bread must +be won, had not fallen. Nature provided a Garden of Eden where rich food +came without digging and raiment was not needed. Laughing nations of +happy children grew up. True, wars they had, and war brought woe. But +the great trouble, and also the great incentive to progress of life, +they had not. There was no toiling for leave to live. Civilisation, +alas! intrudes now, more urgent each year, to bring its "blessings" of +toil, disease, and drabness of fettered life; and the Paradise of the +South Sea yields to its advance--here with the sullen and passionate +resentment of the angry child, there with the pathetic listlessness of +the child too afraid to be angry. But, still, there survives in tree and +flower, bird and beast, and in aboriginal man, much that has the +suggestion rather of the Garden of Eden than of this curious world which +man has made for himself--a world of exacting tasks and harsh +taskmasters, of ugly houses and smoke-stained skies, of machinery and of +enslaving conventions. + +With the White Man came sugar plantations and cotton fields. The Kanaka +heard the words "work" and "wages." He laughed brightly, and went on +chasing the butterfly happiness. To work a little while, for the fun of +the thing, he was willing enough. Indeed, any new sort of task had a +fascination for his childish nature. But steady toil he abhorred, and +for wages he had no use. + +Some three years ago I watched for an hour or two, from the veranda of a +house at Suva, a Fijian garden-boy at work. This was a "good" +garden-boy, noted in the town for his industry. And he played with his +work with an elegant naïveté that was altogether charming to one who had +not to be his paymaster. Almost bare of clothing, his fine bronzed +muscles rippled and glanced to show that he had the strength for any +task if he had but the will. Perhaps the gentleness of his energy was +inspired by the æsthetic idea of just keeping his bronze skin a little +moist, so as to bring out to the full its satin grace without blurring +the fine anatomical lines with drops of visible sweat. His languid grace +deserved that it should have had some such prompting. If a bird +alighted on a tree, the Fijian quickly dropped his hoe and pursued it +with stones, which--his bright smile said--were not maliciously meant, +but had a purpose of greeting. An insect, a passing wayfarer, the fall +of a leaf, a cloud in the sky, all provided equally good reasons for +stopping work. Finally, at three a little shower came, and the "model +boy" of Fijian industry thankfully ceased work for the day. + +A gracious, sweet, well-fed idleness was Nature's dower to the Pacific +Islander, until the White Man came with his work, as an angel with a +flaming sword, and Paradise ended. Now the fruit of that idleness is +that the Kanaka can take no part in the bustling life of modern +civilisation. + +In one British settlement, Papua, a part of New Guinea, the Australian +Government is endeavouring to lead a Kanaka race along the path of +modern progress. "Papua for the Papuans," is the keynote of the +administration, and all kinds of devices are adopted to tempt the +coloured man to industry. His Excellency, Colonel Murray, the +Administrator of Papua, told me in London (where he was on leave) last +year (1911) that he had some hopes that the cupidity of the Papuans +would in time tempt them to some settled industry. They had a great +liking for the White Man's adornments and tools, and, to gratify that +liking, were showing some inclination for work. The effort is well +meant, but probably vain. "Civilisation is impossible where the banana +grows," declared an American philosopher: and the generalisation was +sound. The banana tree provides food without tillage: and an organic law +of this civilisation of ours is that man must be driven, by hunger and +thirst and the desire for shelter, to plan, to organise, to make +machines, to store. + +Every nation in the Pacific has the same experience. In the Hawaiian +Group, the American Power finds the native race helpless material for +nation-making. The Hawaiian takes on a veneer of civilisation, but +nothing can shake him from his habits of indolence. He adopts American +clothes, lives in American houses, learns to eat pie and to enjoy +ice-cream soda. He plays at the game of politics with voluble zeal. But +he is still a Kanaka, and takes no real part in the progress of the +flourishing territory of Hawaii. Americans do the work of +administration. Imported Japanese, Chinese, Portuguese and others, are +the coolies and the traders. The Hawaiian talks, basks in the sun, +adorns himself with wreaths of odorous flowers, and occasionally +declaims with the pathetic bleat of an enraged sheep at "American +tyranny." + +When White civilisation came to the South Pacific, the various islands +held several millions of coloured peoples, very many of them enjoying an +idyllically happy system of existence. To-day, 50,000 Maoris, beginning +to hold their own in the islands of New Zealand, represent the sole hope +of all those peoples to have any voice at all in the Pacific. +Humanitarian effort may secure the survival for a time of other groups +of islanders, but the ultimate prospects are not bright. Probably what +is happening at Fiji, where the Fijian fades away in the face of a more +strenuous coolie type imported from India, and at Hawaii, will happen +everywhere in the South Pacific. + + + + +CHAPTER X + +LATIN AMERICA + + +Latin America is the world's great example of race-mixture. Europeans +and Indians have intermixed from Terra del Fuego to the northern +boundary of Mexico, and the resultant race, with some differences due to +climate, has general points of resemblance over all that vast territory. +There is prompting to speculation as to the reasons why in Spanish and +Portuguese America race mixture was the rule, in Anglo-Saxon America the +exception. It was not the superior kindness of the Latin people which +paved the way to confidence and inter-marriage. No one can doubt that, +badly stained as are the records of the Anglo-Saxons in America, the +records of the Latins are far, far worse. Yet the Latin, between +intervals of massacre, prepared the nuptial couch, and a Latin-Indian +race survives to-day whilst there is no Teutonic-Indian race. + +Probably it is a superior sense of racial responsibility and racial +superiority which has kept the Anglo-Saxon colonist from mingling his +blood with that of the races he made subject to him. He shows a +reproduction in a modern people of the old Hebraic spirit of elect +nationality. In truth; there may be advanced some excuse for those +fantastic theorists who write large volumes to prove that ten tribes +were once lost from Israel and might have been found soon after in +Britain. If there were no other circumstances on which to found the +theory (which, I believe, has not the slightest historical basis), the +translation of the Old Testament into the English language would amply +serve. It is the one great successful translation of the world's +literary history: it makes any other version of the Bible in a European +language--including that pseudo-English one done at Douai--seem pallid +and feeble; it rescues the Hebrew sentiment and the Hebrew poetry from +out the morass of the dull Greek translation. And it does all this +seemingly because the Elizabethan Englishman resembled in temperament, +in outlook, in thought, the Chosen People of the time of David. + +The Elizabethan Anglo-Saxon wandering out on the Empire trail treated +with cruelty and contempt the Gentile races which he encountered. He has +since learned to treat them with kindness and contempt. But he has never +sunk the contempt, and the contempt saves him from any general practice +of miscegenation. In ruling the blind heathen, more fussy peoples fail +because they wish to set the heathen right: to induce the barbarian to +become as they are. The Anglo-Saxon does not particularly wish to set +the heathen right. He is right: that suffices. It is not possible for +inferior races ever to be like him. It is wise, therefore, to let them +wallow. So long as they give to him the proper reverence, he is +satisfied. Thus the superb, imperturbable Anglo-Saxon holds aloof from +inferior races: governs them coolly, on the whole justly; but never +attempts to share their life. His plan is to enforce strictly from a +subject people the one thing that he wants of them, and to leave the +rest of their lives without interference. They may fill the interval +with hoodoo rites, caste divisions or Mumbo-Jumbo worship, as they +please. So long as such diversions have no seditious tendencies they are +viewed, if not with approval, at least with tolerance. Indeed, if that +be suitable to his purpose, the Anglo-Saxon governor of the heathen will +subsidise the Dark Races' High Priest of Mumbo-Jumbo. Thus a favourite +British remedy for the sorcerer, who is the great evil of the South Sea +Islands, is not a crusade against sorcery, which would be very +troublesome and rather useless, but to purchase over the chief +sorcerers--who come very cheap when translated into English +currency--and make them do their incantations on behalf of orderly +government (insisting, by the way, on more faithful service than Balaam +gave). + +It is his race arrogance, equally with his robust common-sense, that +makes the Anglo-Saxon the ideal coloniser and governor of Coloured +Races: and there is no room for miscegenation in an ideal system. +America, considered in its two sections, Latin America and Anglo-Saxon +America, gives a good opportunity for comparison of colonising methods. +To-day North of the 30th parallel the Republic of the United States +shows as the greatest White nation of the world, greatest in population +and material prosperity; and the young nation of Canada enters buoyantly +upon the path of a big career. South of that parallel there are great +populations, but they are poor in resources, and as a rule poorly +governed, poorly educated. Some of the Latin-American races show +promise--Chili and the Argentine Republic most of all,--yet none is +comparable or ever likely to be comparable with the Republic of North +America. + +Yet before Columbus sailed from Europe the position was exactly +reversed. North of the 30th parallel of northern latitude there was but +a vagabond beginning of civilisation. South of that parallel two fine +nations had built up polities comparable in many respects with those of +the European peoples of to-day. What Peru and Mexico would have become +under conditions of Anglo-Saxon conquest, it is, of course, impossible +to say. But there is an obvious conclusion to be drawn from the fact +that the Anglo-Saxon colonists found a wilderness and built up two great +nations: the Latin colonists found two highly organised civilisations, +and left a wilderness from which there now emerges a hope, faint and not +yet certain, of a Latin-American Power. + +The story of Peru is one of the great tragedies of history. The Peruvian +Empire at the time of the Spanish invasion stretched along the Pacific +Ocean over the territory which now comprises Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and +Chili. Natural conditions along that coastal belt had been favourable to +the growth of civilisation. A strip of land about twenty leagues wide +runs along the coast, hemmed in by the Andes on one side, by the sea on +the other. This strip of coast land is fed by a few scanty streams. +Above, the steppes of the Sierra, of granite and porphyry, have their +heights wrapped in eternal snows. Here was the call for work, which is +the main essential of civilisation. The Peruvians constructed a system +of canals and subterranean aqueducts, wrought with extraordinary skill +by instruments and tools made of stone and copper (though iron was +plentiful its use had not been learned). Thus they cultivated the waste +places. In some respects their life conditions were similar to those of +the Egyptians. Their agriculture was highly advanced and comprehensive. +Their religion was sun-worship, and on it was based a highly organised +theocracy. Tradition said that a son and daughter of the Sun, who were +also man and wife, were sent by their father to teach the secrets of +life to the Peruvians. These divinities were the first Incas. + +The civil and military systems of the Peruvians were admirable in +theory, though doomed to break down utterly under the savage test of the +Spanish invasion. The Empire was divided into four parts; into each ran +one of the great roads which diverged from Cuzco ("the navel"), the +capital. The provinces were ruled by viceroys, assisted by councils; all +magistrates and governors were selected from the nobility. By law, the +Peruvian was forced to marry at a certain age. Sufficient land was +allotted him to maintain himself and his wife, and an additional grant +was made for each child. There was a yearly adjustment and renewal of +land grants. Conditions of theocratic and despotic socialism marked most +departments of civil life. In what may be called "foreign politics" the +Incas pursued conquest by a Florentine policy of negotiation and +intrigue. In dealing with neighbouring foes they acted so that when they +at last came into the Peruvian Empire, they should have uncrippled +resources and amicable sentiments. The Spaniards have described the +Peruvians as "lazy, luxurious and sensual." It would have been equally +correct to have said that they were contented, refined and amiable. +Their very virtues made it impossible for them to defend themselves +against the Spaniards. + +The Spanish adventurers who were destined to destroy the elegant and +happy civilisation of the Peruvians--a civilisation which had solved the +problem of poverty, and gave to every citizen a comfortable +existence--were children of Spain at her highest pitch of power and +pride. Gold and his God were the two objects of worship of the Spaniard +of that day, and his greed did no more to sully his wild courage with +cruelty than his religion, which had been given a fierce and gloomy bent +towards persecution by the struggles with the Moors. + +In 1511 Vasco Nunez da Balboa was told in Mexico of a fabulously rich +land where "gold was as cheap as iron." Balboa in the search for it +achieved the fine feat of crossing from Central America the mountain +rampart of the isthmus. Reaching the Pacific, he rushed into its waters +crying, "I claim this unknown sea with all it contains for the King of +Castile, and I will make good this claim against all who dare to gainsay +it." There Balboa got clearer news of Peru, and pushed on to within +about twenty leagues of the Gulf of St Michael. But the achievement of +Peru was reserved for another man. In 1524 Francisco Pizarro set out +upon the conquest of Peru. Pizarro had all the motives for wild +adventure. An illegitimate child--his father a colonel of infantry, his +mother of humble condition,--he had reached middle age without winning a +fortune, yet without abating his ambition. He was ready for any +desperate enterprise. After two unsuccessful attempts to reach Peru, the +Spanish freebooter finally succeeded, leading a tiny force across the +Andes to Caxamalco, where he encountered the Inca, who received the +strangers peaceably. But no kindness could stave off the lust for gold +and slaughter of the Spaniards. Because the Inca refused at a moment's +notice to accept the Christian God, as explained to him by a Spanish +friar, a holy war was declared against the Peruvians. The wretched +people understood as little the treachery and the resolute cruelty of +the Spaniards as their gunpowder and their horses. Paralysed by their +virtues, they fell easy victims, as sheep to wolves. + +A career of rapine and bloodshed led to the complete occupation of the +country by the Spaniards, and the vassalage of the natives. Civil war +amongst the conquerors, into which the natives were willy-nilly dragged, +aggravated the horrors of this murder of a nation. The Spaniards looted +and tortured the men, violated the women, and were so merciless as to +carry on their war even against the natural resources of the country. +They used to kill the llama or native sheep for the sake of its brains, +which were considered a delicacy. Yet Pizarro, in his instructions from +Spain, which secured to him the right of conquest and discovery in Peru, +and various titles and privileges, was expressly enjoined "to observe +all regulations for the good government and protection of the natives." + +The fact that the Spaniards condescended to racial mixture with the +Indians did nothing to heal the scars of such suffering. The half-breeds +grew up with a hatred of Spain, and they had borrowed from their fathers +some of their savagery. The mild Peruvian would have bred victims for +generation after generation. The Spanish-Peruvian cross bred avengers. +Early in the nineteenth century Spain was driven out of South America +and a series of Latin-American Republics instituted. + +In 1815 the Napoleonic wars having ended with the caging of the great +soldier, Spain proposed to the Holy Alliance of European monarchs a +joint European effort to restore her dominion over the revolted colonies +in South America. But Napoleon had done his work too well to allow of +any alliance, however "holy," to reassert the divine right of kings. +Whilst he had been overthrowing the thrones of Europe, both in North and +South America free nations had won recognition with the blood of their +people. The United States, still nationally an infant, but sturdy +withal, promulgated the Monroe doctrine as a veto on any European war of +revenge against the South American Republics. Great Britain was more +sympathetic to America than to the Holy Alliance. The momentarily +re-established Kings and Emperors of Europe had therefore to hold their +hand. It was a significant year, creating at once a free Latin America +and a tradition that Latin America should look to Anglo-Saxon America +for protection. + +Passing north of the Isthmus of Panama, there come up for consideration +another group of Latin-American States of which the racial history +resembles closely that of South America. The little cluster of Central +American States can hardly be taken seriously. Their ultimate fate will +probably be that of Cuba--nominal independence under the close +surveillance of the United States. But, farther north, Mexico claims +more serious attention. Some time before Peru had received the blessings +of civilisation from Pizarro, Mexico had reluctantly yielded her +independence to Cortez, a Spanish leader whose task was much more severe +than that of Pizarro. Whilst the mild Peruvians gave up without a +struggle, the fierce Mexicans contested the issue with stubbornness and +with a courage which was enterprising enough to allow them to seize the +firearms of dead Spanish soldiers and use them against the invaders. + +The original Aztec civilisation was warlike and Spartan. Extreme +severity marked the penal codes. Intemperance, the consuming canker of +Indian races, was severely penalised. There were several classes of +slaves, the most unhappy being prisoners of war, who were often used as +sacrificial victims to the gods. Sacrificed human beings were eaten at +banquets attended by both sexes. The Aztecs were constantly at war with +their neighbours, and needed no better pretext for a campaign than the +need to capture sacrifices for their gods. + +Grijalba was the first Spaniard to set foot on Mexico. He held a +conference with an Aztec chief, and interchanged toys and trinkets for a +rich treasure of jewels and gold. Cortez, the conqueror of Mexico, was +sent to Mexico by Velasquez, conqueror of Cuba. He landed in Mexico with +the avowed object of Christianising the natives, and considered himself +a Soldier of the Cross. Like a good Crusader, he was ready to argue +with the sword when words failed to convince. For some while he engaged +in amicable relations with the Mexicans, exchanging worthless trifles +for Mexican gold. But eventually various small wars led up to a three +months' siege of the Aztec capital, which fell after a display of grand +courage on the part of the Mexicans. Their civilisation, when at a point +of high development, was then blotted out for ever. + +It was in 1521 that the Spaniards first landed in Mexico. Their rule +extended over three centuries. In 1813 Mexico first declared her +independence, and in 1821 achieved the separation from Spain. The war of +liberation had been fierce and sanguinary. It was succeeded by civil +wars which threatened to tear to pieces the new nation. In 1822 an +Empire was attempted. It ended with the assassination of the Emperor, +Augustin de Yturbidi. A series of military dictatorships followed, until +in 1857 a Republican constitution was promulgated. Because this +constitution was strongly anti-clerical, it led to another series of +wars. + +Meanwhile greedy eyes were fixed upon the rich territories thus ravaged +by civil strife. The United States to the north coveted the coastal +provinces of California. Napoleon III. of France conceived the idea of +reviving French influence on the American continent, and in 1864 helped +to set up the second Empire of Mexico with the unhappy Maximilian at its +head. Maximilian left Europe in the spring of 1864. After three years +of civil war he was shot by the revolutionary commander. His rule had +not commended itself to the Mexicans and was viewed with suspicion by +the United States, which saw in it an attempt to revive European +continental influences. + +Then anarchy reigned for many years, until in 1876 the strong hands of +Diaz, one of the great men of the century, took control. He did for the +Mexican revolutionaries what Napoleon had done for the French +Terrorists. But it was different material that he had to work upon. The +Mexicans, their Aztec blood not much improved by an admixture of +European, gave reluctant obedience to Diaz, and he was never able to +lead them towards either a peaceful and stable democracy or a really +progressive despotism. For more than a quarter of a century, however, he +held power, nominally as the elected head of a Republic, really as the +despotic centre of a tiny oligarchy. The country he ruled over, however, +was not the old Spanish Mexico. There had been a steady process of +absorption of territory by her powerful northern neighbour. Over +1,000,000 square miles, included in the rich Californian and Texas +districts, had passed over by right of conquest or forced sale to the +United States. The present area of Mexico is 767,000 square miles. So +more than half of this portion of Spanish America has passed over to the +Stars and Stripes. + +The fall of Diaz in 1911 seemed to presage the acquirement by the +United States of the rest of Mexico. There had been for some months +rumours of an alliance between Mexico and Japan, which would have had an +obviously unfriendly purpose towards the United States. The rumours were +steadily denied. But many believed that they had some foundation, and +that the mobilisation of United States troops on the Mexican frontier +was not solely due to the desire to keep the frontier line secure from +invasions by the Mexican revolutionaries. Whatever the real position, +the tension relaxed when the abdication of Diaz allayed for a while the +revolutionary disorders in Mexico. Now (1912) disorder again riots +through Mexico, and again the authorities of the United States are +anxiously considering whether intervention is not necessary.[5] + +I am strongly of the opinion that by the time the Panama Canal has been +opened for world shipping, the United States will have found some form +of supervision over all Latin North America necessary: and that her +diplomacy is now shaping also for the inclusion of Latin South America +in an American Imperial system by adding to the present measure of +diplomatic suzerainty which the Monroe doctrine represents a +preferential tariff system. Before discussing that point, the actual +strength of Latin America should be summarised. To-day the chief nations +of Latin America--all of Spanish-Indian or of Portuguese-Indian +origin--are:-- + +The Republic of Argentina, area 3,954,911 square miles; population, +6,489,000 (increasing largely by immigration from all parts of Europe); +revenue, about £20,000,000 a year. + +The Republic of Bolivia, area 605,400 square miles; population +2,049,000; revenue, about £1,300,000 a year. + +The Republic of Brazil, area 3,218,991 square miles; population +21,461,000 (there is a great European immigration); revenue, about +£18,000,000 a year. + +The Republic of Chili, area 2474 square miles; population about +4,500,000; revenue about £1,400,000 a year. + +The Republic of Ecuador, area 116,000 square miles; population about +1,400,000; revenue about £1,400,000. + +The Republic of Uruguay, area 72,210 square miles; population 1,042,668; +revenue about £5,000,000. + +The Republic of Venezuela, area 393,870 square miles; revenue about +£2,000,000. + +The Republic of Paraguay, area 98,000 square miles; population about +650,000. + +The Republic of Mexico, area 767,000 square miles; population about +14,000,000. + +The total of populations is between 50,000,000 and 60,000,000. + +These peoples have the possibility--but as yet only the possibility--of +organising appreciable naval power, and are possessed now of a military +power, not altogether contemptible, and equal to the task at most points +of holding the land against a European or Asiatic invader, if that +invader had to face the United States' naval power also. Presuming their +peaceable acceptance of a plan to embrace them in the ambit of an +American Imperial system--a system which would still leave them with +their local liberties,--there is no doubt at all that they could add +enormously to the strength of the United States. Presuming, on the other +hand, a determined plan on their part to form among themselves a grand +Federal League, and to aim at a Latin-American Empire, they might make +some counterbalance to the power of the United States on the American +continent and in the Pacific. + +Neither contingency seems immediately likely. These Latin-American +peoples have not yet shown any genius for self-government. They produce +revolutionary heroes, but not statesmen. Among themselves they quarrel +bitterly, and a Latin-American Confederation does not seem to be +possible. On the other hand, Latin America is jealous of the United +States: resents, whilst it accepts the benefits of, the Monroe doctrine, +and would take as a danger signal any action hostile to the Mexican +Republic which the Anglo-Celtic Republic should be forced to take. Any +attempt on the part of the United States to "force the pace" in regard +to Latin America would saddle her with half a dozen annoying wars. + +What seems to be the aim of United States diplomacy, and what seems to +be an attainable aim, is that very gradually the countries of South +America will be brought closer to the northern Republic, coaxed by a +system of reciprocity in trade which would offer them advantageous +terms. Commercial union would thus pave the way to a closer political +union. Such a development would be a very serious detriment to British +trade interests, and to the British position in the Pacific. British +export trade with Latin America is very considerable, amounting to some +£60,000,000 worth a year. The two greatest contributors to the total are +Brazil (£16,426,000 in 1910) and the Argentine Republic (£19,097,000 in +1910). Their communications with Great Britain will be left unchanged +with the opening of the Panama Canal: and that event consequently will +not strengthen American influence there. The same remark applies to +trade with Mexico (£2,399,000 in 1910), with Columbia (£1,196,000), with +Uruguay (£2,940,000). But trade with Peru (£1,315,000) and Chili +(£5,479,000) will be affected by the canal bringing New York competition +nearer. + +There would, however, be a very serious position created for British +trading interests if a proposal were carried out of an American +preferential tariff system embracing the United States and Latin +America. The total of British trade with Latin America (about +£60,000,000) is nearly one-third of the total of British foreign trade +(£183,986,000 in 1910), and is more than half the total British trade +with British possessions. Moreover, it is almost exclusively in lines in +which United States competition is already keenly felt. A tariff +preference of any extent to the United States would drive British goods, +to a large degree, out of the Latin-American market. + +The position of Latin America in its effect on the dominance of the +Pacific may be summed up as this: racial instability will probably +prevent the Latin-American nations from federating and forming a great +Power; the veto of the United States will prevent them from falling into +the sphere of influence of any European Power; their jealousy and +distrust of the United States, whether it be without or with reason, +will stand in the way of their speedy absorption in an American Imperial +system. But that absorption seems ultimately inevitable (though its form +will leave their local independence intact). Its first step has been +taken with the Monroe declaration; its second step is now being prepared +with proposals for trade reciprocity. + +FOOTNOTES: + +[5] A dispatch from Washington, February 7, 1912, stated: + +President Taft and Secretary Knox held a long conference this morning on +the state of affairs in Mexico, which, it is believed, are worse than is +officially admitted. Reluctant as the President is to take any steps +that might compel intervention or the military occupation of Mexico, he +is forced to view both as ultimate possibilities, and to make +preparations accordingly. Thus the Army on the border is being +strengthened, although thus far no important military movements have +taken place, but the plans are complete for mobilisation. + +While Congress is opposed to involving the country in war, or to any +action which will lead to hostilities with Mexico, it will support the +President if war is the only alternative, and the large amount of +British and other foreign capital invested in Mexico makes it incumbent +upon the United States, in view of the Monroe doctrine, to protect the +lives and property of foreigners in the Republic. Otherwise, the duty of +protection must be undertaken by the Governments whose nationals are in +jeopardy, which would be an admission on the part of the United States +that the Monroe doctrine exists for the benefit of the United States, +but imposes no obligations. That is an admission Congress will not make +so long as there is an Army ready to take the field. + + + + +CHAPTER XI + +CANADA AND THE PACIFIC + + +The existence, side by side, of two races and two languages in Canada +makes it a matter of some doubt as to what the future Canadian nation +will be. The French race, so far proving more stubborn in its +characteristics than the British race in Canada, has been the +predominant influence up to recently, though its influence has sought +the impossible aim of a French-Canadian nation rather than a Canadian +nation. Thus it was at once a bulwark of national spirit and yet an +obstacle to a genuinely progressive nationalism. Patriotic in its +resistance to all external influences which threatened Canadian +independence, it yet failed in its duty to promote an internal progress +towards a homogeneous people. + +Canada, it is perhaps needless to recall to mind, was originally a +French colony. In the sixteenth century, when the British settlements in +America were scattered along the Atlantic seaboard of what is now the +United States, the French colonised in the valley of the Mississippi and +along the course of the great river known as the St Lawrence. Their +design of founding an Empire in America, a "New France," took the bold +form of isolating the seaboard colonies of the British, and effectively +occupying all of what is now the Middle-West of the United States, +together with Canada and the country bordering on the Gulf of Mexico. It +is not possible to imagine greater courage, more patient endurance, more +strenuous enterprise, than was shown by the early founders of New +France. If they did not achieve, they at least fully deserved an Empire. + +French colonists in Canada occupied at first the province of Acadia, now +known as Nova Scotia, and the province of Quebec on the River St +Lawrence. Jacques Cartier, a sailor of St Malo, was the first explorer +of the St Lawrence. Acadia was colonised in 1604 by an expedition from +the Huguenot town of La Rochelle, under the command of Champlain, De +Monts, and Poutrincourt. Then a tardy English rivalry was aroused. In +1614 the Governor of Virginia, Sir Thomas Dale, sent an expedition to +Acadia, and took possession of the French fort. That was the first blow +in a long struggle between English and French for supremacy in North +America. In 1629, the date of Richelieu's supremacy in France, an +incident of a somewhat irregular war between England and France was the +capture, by David Kirk, an English Admiral, of Quebec, the newly-founded +capital of "New France"; and the English Flag floated over Fort St +Louis. But it was discovered that this capture had been effected after +peace had been declared between the two European Powers, and, by the +treaty of St Germain-en-Laye, Quebec was restored to France. + +But the French colonies in America were still inconsiderable and were +always threatened by the Red Indians, until Colbert, the great Minister +of Louis XIV., made them a royal province, and, with Jean Baptiste Talon +as Governor, Monseigneur Laval as Bishop, and the Marquis de Tracy as +soldier, French Canada was organised under a system of theocratic +despotism. The new régime was strictly paternal. The colonists were +allowed no self-governing rights; a feudal system was set up, and the +land divided into seignories, whose vassals were known as "habitants," a +name which still survives. In all things the Governor and the Bishop +exercised a sway. Wives were brought from France for the habitants, +early marriages and large families encouraged, and religious orthodoxy +carefully safeguarded. + +The French Canada of to-day shows the enduring nature of the lessons +which Talon and Laval then inculcated. With the growth of modern thought +the feudal system has passed away, and the habitants are independent +farmers instead of vassals to a seigneur. But in most other things they +are the same as their forefathers of the seventeenth century. When +Canada passed into the hands of the English, it had to be recognised +that there was no hope of holding the country on any terms antagonistic +to the habitants and their firmly fixed principles of life. In regard +to religion, to education, to marriage and many other things, the old +Roman Catholic ecclesiastical influence was preserved, and continues +almost undiminished to this day. + +The French-Canadian is a Frenchman of the era before the Revolution--a +Frenchman without scepticism, and with a belief in large families. He is +the Breton peasant of a century ago, who has come to a new land, +increased and multiplied. He is devoutly attached to the Roman Catholic +Church, and follows its guidance in all things. + +A somewhat frigid and calculating "loyalty" to Great Britain; a deep +sentimental attachment to France as "the Mother Country"; a rooted +dislike to the United States, founded on the conviction that if Canada +joined the great Republic he would lose his language and religious +privileges--these are the elements which go to the making of the +French-Canadian's national character. + +Very jealously the French-Canadian priesthood preserves the ideas of the +ancient order. Marriage of French-Canadians with Protestants, or even +with Roman Catholics of other than French-Canadian blood, is +discouraged. The education of the children--the numerous children of +this race which counts a family not of respectable size until it has +reached a dozen--is kept in the hands of the Church in schools where the +French tongue alone is taught. Thus the French-Canadian influence, +instead of permeating through the whole nation, aims at a people within +a people. The aim cannot be realised; and already the theocratic idea, +on which French-Canadian nationalism is largely based, shows signs of +weakening. There are to be found French-Canadians who are confessedly +"anti-clerical." That marks the beginning of the end. One may foresee in +the near future the French-Canadian element merging in the general mass +of the community to the great benefit of all--of the French-Canadian, +who needs to be somewhat modernised; of the British-Canadian, who will +be all the better for a mingling of a measure of the exalted idealism +and spiritual strength of the French element; and of the nation at +large, for a complete merging of the two races, French and British, in +Canada would produce a people from which might be expected any degree of +greatness. + +Canada, facing to-day both the Atlantic and the Pacific, has the +possibilities of greatness on either ocean, or indeed on both; I do not +think it a wild forecast to say that ultimately her Pacific provinces +may be greater than those bordering the Atlantic, and may draw to their +port a large share of the trade of the Middle-West. Entering Canada by +her Pacific gate, and passing through the coastal region over the +Selkirks and Rockies to the prairie, one sees all the material for the +making of a mighty nation. The coastal waters, and the rivers flowing +into them, teem with fish, and here are the possibilities of a huge +fishing population. At present those possibilities are, in the main, +neglected, or allowed to be exploited by Asiatics. But a movement is +already afoot to organise their control for the benefit of a British +population. The coastal strip and the valleys running into the ranges +are mild of climate and rich of soil. An agricultural population of +10,000,000 could here find sustenance, first levying toll on the great +forests, and later growing grain and fruit. Within the ranges are great +stores of minerals, from gold down to coal and iron. Everywhere are +rushing rivers and rapids to provide electrical power. Fishermen, +lumbermen, farmers, mountain graziers, miners, manufacturers--for all +these there is golden opportunity. The rigours of the Eastern Canadian +climate are missing: but there is no enervating heat. The somewhat +old-fashioned traditions of the Eastern provinces are also missing, and +the people facing the Pacific have the lusty confidence of youth. + +At present the balance of political power in Canada is with the east. +But each year sees it move farther west. The Pacific provinces count for +more and more, partly from their increasing population, partly from +their increasing influence over the prairie farmers and ranchers. The +last General Election in Canada showed clearly this tendency. In every +part of the nation there was a revulsion from the political ideals +represented by Sir Wilfrid Laurier: and that revulsion was most complete +in the west, where as a movement it had had its birth. + +It would be outside of the scope of this book to discuss the domestic +politics of Canada, but the Canadian General Election of 1911 was so +significant in its bearing on the future of the Pacific, that some +reference to its issues and decisions is necessary. Sir Wilfrid Laurier +up to 1911 had held the balance even between the British and the French +elements in Canada without working for their amalgamation. His aim +always was to pursue a programme of peaceful material development. With +the ideals of British Imperialism he had but little real sympathy, and +his conception of the duty of the Canadian nation was that it should +grow prosperous quickly, push forward with its railways, and avoid +entangling participation in matters outside the boundaries of Canada. He +was not blind to the existence of the United States Monroe doctrine as a +safeguard to Canadian territory against European invasion, and was not +disposed to waste money on armaments which, to his mind, were +unnecessary. The Canadian militia, which from the character of the +people might have been the finest in the world, was allowed to become a +mostly ornamental institution.[6] + +At the Imperial Defence Conference in 1909, Sir Wilfrid refused to +follow the lead of other self-governing Dominions in organising Fleet +units, and the Canadian attitude was recorded officially as this: + +"As regards Canada, it was recognised that while on naval strategical +considerations a Fleet unit on the Pacific might in the future form an +acceptable system of naval defence, Canada's double seaboard rendered +the provision of such a Fleet unit unsuitable for the present. Two +alternative plans, based upon annual expenditures respectively of +£600,000 and £400,000, were considered, the former contemplating the +provision of four cruisers of the 'Bristol' class, one cruiser of the +'Boadicea' class, and six destroyers of the improved 'River' class, the +'Boadicea' and destroyers to be placed on the Atlantic side and the +'Bristol' cruisers to be divided between the Atlantic and Pacific +oceans." Yet it had been expected that Canada would at least have +followed the Australian offer of a Pacific Fleet unit at a cost of +£3,000,000 a year. + +Sir Wilfrid Laurier's fall came when, in the natural development of his +ideals of a peaceful and prosperous Canada, sharing none of the +responsibilities of the British Empire, but reckoning for her safety +partly on its power, partly on the power of the United States, he +proposed to enter into a Trade Reciprocity Treaty with the United +States. The proposal was fiercely attacked, not only on the ground that +it represented a partial surrender of Canadian nationalist ideals, but +also on the charge that it was against the interests of British +Imperialism. At the General Election which followed, Sir Wilfrid Laurier +was decisively defeated. As an indication of the issues affecting the +result, there is the anecdote that one of Sir Wilfrid Laurier's +supporters ascribed the defeat chiefly to "the chap who wrote 'Rule +Britannia.'" + +Canada to-day faces the future with a purpose made clear, of cherishing +her separate nationalism and her partnership in the British Empire. She +will cultivate friendship with the United States, but she will not +tolerate anything leading to absorption with the great Republic: and she +will take a more active part in the defence of the Empire. The Laurier +naval policy, which was to spend a little money uselessly, has been set +aside, and Canada's share in the naval defence of the Empire is to be +discussed afresh with the British Admiralty. A military reorganisation, +of which the full details are not available yet, is also projected. It +is known that the Defence Minister, Colonel Hughes, intends to +strengthen the rural regiments, to establish local in addition to +central armouries, and to stimulate recruiting by increasing the pay of +the volunteers. He also contemplates a vigorous movement for the +organisation of cadet corps throughout the whole country. It is a +reasonable forecast that Canada, in the near future, will contribute to +the defence of the Pacific a Fleet unit based on a "Dreadnought" cruiser +and a militia force capable of holding her western coast against any but +a most powerful invader. Her ultimate power in the Pacific can hardly be +over-estimated. The wheat lands of the Middle-West and the cattle lands +of the West will probably find an outlet west as well as east, when the +growing industrial populations of Asia begin to come as customers into +the world's food markets. Electric power developed in the great mountain +ranges will make her also a great manufacturing nation: and she will +suffer less in the future than in the past from the draining away of the +most ambitious of her young men to the United States. The tide of +migration has turned, and it is Canada now which draws away young blood +from the Southern Republic. + +FOOTNOTES: + +[6] It can be at least said on behalf of the Canadian militia that their +condition was no worse than that of the militia of the United States. In +1906 Mr President Taft (then Secretary for War) contributed a preface to +a pamphlet by Mr Huidekoper on the United States Army. Mr Taft then +wrote:-- + +"Our confidence in ourselves and in our power of quickly adapting +circumstances to meet any national emergency so far has carried away +some of our public men so that they have been deliberately blind to the +commonest and most generally accepted military principles, and they have +been misled by the general success or good luck which has attended us in +most of our wars. The awful sacrifice of life and money which we had to +undergo during the four years in order to train our civil war veterans +and to produce that army is entirely forgotten, and the country is +lulled into the utterly unfounded assurance that a volunteer enlisted +to-day, or a militiaman enrolled to-morrow, can in a week or month be +made an effective soldier. The people of this country and the Government +of this country, down to the time of the Spanish War, had pursued a +policy which seemed utterly to ignore the lessons of the past." + +Mr Huidekoper (an acknowledged expert) maintained:-- + +"Judged by purely military standards, the invasion of Cuba was a trivial +affair; but never in modern times has there been an expedition which +contained so many elements of weakness; that it succeeded at all is, +indeed, a marvel. The disorders of demoralisation and incapacity which +attended the opening operations were nothing but the logical outcome of +the unwillingness of Congress to prepare for war until the last possible +moment, and merely demonstrated once again the utterly vicious system to +which our legislators have persistently bound us, by neglecting to +provide a force of thoroughly trained soldiers either large enough or +elastic enough to meet the requirements of war as well as peace, +supported by a militia which has previously had sufficient training to +make it, when called out as volunteers, fairly dependable against the +regular forces of other nations." + +Then in 1911, Mr Dickinson, U.S. Secretary for War, in an official +report, condemned absolutely the U.S. militia on the grounds that: "It +is lacking in proper proportions of cavalry, field artillery, engineer, +signal corps and sanitary troops; it is not fully or properly organised +into the higher units, brigades and divisions; it has no reserve +supplies of arms and field equipment to raise its units from a peace to +a war footing; it is so widely scattered throughout the country as to +make its prompt concentration impossible; its personnel is deficient in +training; it is to a degree deficient in physical stamina, and has upon +its rolls a large number of men who by reason of their family relations +and business responsibilities cannot be counted upon for service during +any long period of war." + +It will thus be seen that not only in Canada, but also in the United +States, the militia has become "mostly ornamental." But the United +States is now awakening to the possibility of having to defend the +Pacific coast against an Asiatic Power or combination of Powers holding +command of the ocean, and promises to reorganise her militia. It is +perhaps interesting to note that whilst to-day the British Imperial +Defence authorities discourage Canada from any militia dispositions or +manoeuvres founded on the idea of an invasion from the United States, +the militia of the Republic, when it takes the field for mimic warfare, +often presumes "an invasion by the British forces." + + + + +CHAPTER XII + +THE NAVIES OF THE PACIFIC + + +The present year (1912) is not a good one for an estimate of the naval +forces of the Pacific. The Powers interested in the destiny of that +ocean have but recently awakened to a sense of the importance of speedy +naval preparation to avert, or to face with confidence, the struggle +that they deem to be impending. By 1915 the naval forces in the Pacific +will be vastly greater, and the opening of the Panama Canal will have +materially altered the land frontiers of the ocean. A statement of the +naval forces of to-day, to be useful, must be combined with a reasonable +forecast of their strength in 1915. + +Following, for convenience' sake, geographical order, the Pacific Powers +have naval strength as follows:-- + +_Russia._--Russia is spending some £12,000,000 a year on her navy, and +is said to contemplate a force of sixteen "Dreadnoughts." Of these, four +are now in hand, but the date of their completion is uncertain. At +present Russia has no effective naval force in the Pacific, and but +little elsewhere. The "Dreadnoughts" building--which are of a +much-criticised type--are intended for use in European waters. The +naval force of Russia in the Pacific for the present and the near future +may be set down as negligible. + +_Japan._--Japan has two battleships of the "Dreadnought" class, the +_Satsuma_ and the _Aki_, in actual commission. By the time that this +book is in print there should be two more in commission. They were +launched in November 1910. According to modern methods of computation, +a navy can be best judged by its "Dreadnought" strength, always +presuming that the subsidiary vessels of a Fleet unit--cruisers, +destroyers and submarines--are maintained in proper proportion of +strength. Japan's naval programme aims at a combination of fortress +ships ("Dreadnoughts"), speed ships (destroyers) and submarines, in +practically the same proportion as that ruling in the British navy. The +full programme, at first dated for completion in 1915, now in 1920, +provides for twenty modern battleships, twenty modern armoured +cruisers, one hundred destroyers, fifty submarines and various other +boats. But it is likely that financial need will prevent that programme +from being realised. For the current year the Japanese naval estimates +amount to £8,800,000. At present the Japanese navy includes some two +hundred ships, of which thirty-eight are practically useless. The +possibly useful Fleet comprises seventeen battleships and battleship +cruisers, nine armoured cruisers, fifty-seven destroyers, twelve +submarines, four torpedo gunboats and forty-nine torpedo boats. + +The Japanese navy is by far the strongest force in the Pacific, and is +the only navy in the world with actual experience of up-to-date warfare, +though its experience, recent as it is, has not tested the value of the +"Dreadnought" type, which theoretically is the only effective type of +battleship. + +_China._--At present China has twenty-six small boats in commission and +five building. Her biggest fighting ship is a protected cruiser carrying +six-inch guns. The naval strength of China is thus negligible. + +_The United States._--The United States cannot be considered as a +serious Pacific naval Power until the Panama Canal has been +completed.[7] Then under certain circumstances the greater part of her +Fleet would be available for service in the Pacific. She spends some +£26,000,000 yearly on her navy. She has at present four "Dreadnoughts" +in commission, and by the time that this book is in print should have +six. Her building programme provides for two new "Dreadnoughts," and the +proper complement of smaller craft, each year. + +In the last annual report on the United States navy (December 1911), +Secretary Meyer stated that a total of forty battleships, with a +proportional number of other fighting and auxiliary vessels, was the +least that would place the United States on a safe basis in its +relations with the other world Powers, and "while at least two other +Powers have more ambitious building plans, it is believed that if we +maintain an efficient Fleet of the size mentioned, we shall be secure +from attack, and our country will be free to work out its destiny in +peace and without hindrance. The history of all times, including the +present, shows the futility and danger of trusting to good-will and fair +dealing, or even to the most solemnly binding treaties between nations, +for the protection of a nation's sovereign rights and interests, and +without doubt the time is remote when a comparatively unarmed and +helpless nation may be reasonably safe from attack by ambitious +well-armed Powers, especially in a commercial age such as the present." + +Battleships 36 and 37, at the time in course of construction, were, he +claimed, a distinct advance on any vessels in existence. These vessels +would be oil-burners, and would carry no coal. They were to be of about +the same size as the _Delaware_, but their machinery would weigh 3000 +tons less, or a saving of 30 per cent., and the fire-room force would be +reduced by 50 per cent. Concluding his report, Mr. Meyer said: "The +Panama Canal is destined to become the most important strategical point +in the Western Hemisphere, and makes a Caribbean base absolutely +necessary. The best base is Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, which Cuba has ceded +to the United States for naval purposes. This base will enable the +United States to control the Caribbean with all its lines of approach to +the canal, and, with a torpedo base at Key West, will render the Gulf of +Mexico immune from attack." + +A new type of war machine, which is a combination of a submarine and a +torpedo boat, is now being prepared for use in the United States navy. +She is known as the "sub-surface torpedo boat." There is a submarine +hull with machinery and torpedo armaments, and a surface hull--said to +be unsinkable--divided into compartments. The whole vessel weighs six +tons, can be carried on the deck of a battleship, travels eighteen knots +an hour for a radius of two hundred miles, and needs a crew of two men. +She carries a thousand pounds of gun-cotton. The sub-surface boat may be +used as an ordinary torpedo boat, or she may be bodily directed at a +hostile ship after her crew of two have left. It is estimated that the +sub-surface boat will cost about £5000, all told, and it seems possible +that it will be a serious weapon of naval warfare. + +_Great Britain._--Great Britain spent last year nearly £45,000,000 on +her navy, which is the supreme naval force of the world. But its weight +in a Pacific combat at present would be felt chiefly in regard to +keeping the ring clear. No European Power hostile to Great Britain could +send a Fleet into the Pacific. The United States could not despatch its +Atlantic Fleet for service in the Pacific without a foreknowledge of +benevolent neutrality on the part of Great Britain. + +At the Imperial Defence Conference of 1909, it was decided to re-create +the British Pacific Fleet, which, after the alliance with Japan, had +been allowed to dwindle to insignificance. The future Pacific naval +strength of Great Britain may be set down, estimating most +conservatively, at a unit on the China station consisting of one +"Dreadnought" cruiser, three swift unarmoured cruisers, six destroyers +and three submarines. This would match the Australian unit of the same +strength. But it is probable that a far greater strength will shortly be +reached. It may be accepted as an axiom that the British--_i.e._ the +Home Country--Fleet in Pacific waters will be at least kept up to the +strength of the Australian unit. The future growth of that unit is +indicated in the report on naval defence presented to the Commonwealth +Government by Admiral Sir Reginald Henderson, a report which has been +accepted in substance. + +He proposes a completed Fleet to be composed as follows:-- + + 8 Armoured Cruisers, + 10 Protected Cruisers, + 18 Destroyers, + 12 Submarines, + 3 Depôt Ships for Flotillas, + 1 Fleet Repair Ship, + -- + 52. + +This Fleet would, when fully manned, require a personnel of +approximately 15,000 officers and men. + +The Fleet to be divided into two divisions as follows:-- + + EASTERN DIVISION. + +---------------------------+--------------------------+ + | | Number. | + | +-----------+-------+------+ + | Class of Vessel. |In Full | With |Total.| + | |Commission.|Reduced| | + | | | Crew. | | + +---------------------------+-----------+-------+------+ + | | | | | + |Armoured cruiser | 3 | 1 | 4 | + |Protected cruiser | 3 | 2 | 5 | + |Torpedo-boat destroyer | 8 | 4 | 12 | + |Submarine | 3 | ... | 3 | + |Depôt ship for torpedo-boat| | | | + | destroyers | 2 | ... | 2 | + |Fleet repair ship | ... | ... | ... | + | +-----------+-------+------+ + | Total | 19 | 7 | 26 | + +---------------------------+-----------+-------+------+ + | | + | WESTERN DIVISION. | + | | + +---------------------------+-----------+-------+------+ + |Armoured cruiser | 3 | 1 | 4 | + |Protected cruiser | 3 | 2 | 5 | + |Torpedo-boat destroyer | 4 | 2 | 6 | + |Submarine | 9 | ... | 9 | + |Depôt ship for torpedo-boat| | | | + | destroyers | 1 | ... | 1 | + |Fleet repair ship | 1 | ... | 1 | + | +-----------+-------+------+ + | Total | 21 | 5 | 26 | + +---------------------------+-----------+-------+------+ + | Grand total of both | | | | + | divisions | 40 | 12 | 52 | + +---------------------------+-----------+-------+------+ + +That would necessitate £3,000,000 a year expenditure for the first five +years, rising gradually to £5,000,000 a year. To this the Australian +Government is understood to be agreeable. + +New Zealand does not propose to organise a naval force of her own, but +will assist the British Admiralty with a subsidy. That subsidy is to be +devoted to the use of the unit in China waters. + +Canada's naval plans at present are not known. After the Imperial +Defence Conference of 1909 Sir Wilfrid Laurier found both his instincts +for frugality and for peace outraged by the forward policy favoured by +other of the Dominions. He decided to sacrifice the former and not the +latter, and embarked on a naval programme which, whilst it involved a +good deal of expenditure, made it fairly certain that no Canadian +warship would ever fire a shot in anger, since none would be completed +until she had become hopelessly obsolete. His successor in office has +stopped that naval programme. It is possible that the new administration +will decide that Canada should contribute in some effective form to +Imperial naval defence, and she may be responsible for a naval unit in +the Pacific. + +_Latin America._--Brazil (whose interests, however, are in the Atlantic +rather than the Pacific) has two modern battleships of the "Dreadnought" +type, and one other building. Chili has at present no really modern +warship, but projects two "Dreadnoughts" and up-to-date small craft. The +existing Fleet consists of one battleship, two armoured cruisers, and +four protected cruisers. The Republic of Argentine has at present +several vessels practically obsolete, the most modern cruisers having +been built in 1896. There are three battleships, four armoured +cruisers, and three protected cruisers. A modern navy is projected with, +as a nucleus, two 25,000-ton battleships of twenty-two knots, armed with +twelve-inch guns. Mexico, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay, +Venezuela, have no useful Fleets. + +The following table will give as accurate a forecast as possible of +naval strength in the Pacific in the immediate future:-- + + "DREADNOUGHT" TYPES IN 1912 AND 1915. + + 1912. 1915. + + British Empire 20 38 + Germany 11 21 + United States 8 14 + Japan 4 8 + Brazil 3 4 + Argentine Republic ... 2 + Chili ... 2 + +_Note._--All the South American "Dreadnoughts" are open to some doubt, +though Brazil has three vessels of the type actually in the water. +Battleships and cruisers of the "Dreadnought" type are included in the +above table. It has been computed on the presumption that there will be +no change in the 1912 naval programmes. The United States, the British +Empire and Japan, are stronger in battleships of the pre-Dreadnought +period than is Germany. Russia is ignored, for she has no present +intention of restoring her Pacific naval Power. Germany is included +because of her future position as the second naval Power of the world, +and her possible appearance in the Pacific as the ally of one or other +of the Powers established there now. + +The following additional table deals not merely with warships of the +"Dreadnought" type, but with the effective tonnage, _i.e._ the tonnage +of ships of all classes of the three greatest naval Powers:-- + + "EFFECTIVE TONNAGE" IN 1912 AND 1913-14. + + 1912. 1913-14. + + British Empire 1,896,149 2,324,579 + United States 757,711 885,066 + Germany 749,699 1,087,399 + +FOOTNOTES: + +[7] A "Reuter" telegram from Washington, dated March 17, stated: + +"Significant orders have been issued by the Navy Department directing +three big armoured cruisers of the Pacific Fleet to proceed immediately +to the Philippines for an indefinite stay. Their arrival will make the +American Fleet in the Orient the most powerful there excepting the +Japanese. The vessels under order are the cruisers _California_, _South +Dakota_, and _Colorado_." + + + + +CHAPTER XIII + +THE ARMIES OF THE PACIFIC + + +The military forces available for service in the Pacific are those (1) +of Russia; (2) of China; (3) of Japan; (4) of the United States; (5) of +the British Empire including India; (6) of the Latin-American peoples of +Mexico and South America. The great armies of France, Germany, and +Austro-Hungary can have no voice in the destinies of the Pacific Ocean +unless indirectly, as, for instance, through Germany or Austria helping +or hindering a Russian movement in the Far East by guaranteeing or +threatening her European frontier. + +The Russian army, though driven back by the forces of Japan during the +recent war, still demands respectful consideration in any calculations +as to the future of the Asian littoral of the Pacific Ocean. The +Russians, as has been pointed out in a previous chapter, fought that +campaign under many serious disadvantages. The Siberian railway gave +them a very slender line of communication with their base. Now that +railway is being duplicated, and in a future war would have at least +double its old military capacity. The conditions of unrest at home in +Russia during the war were so serious as almost to paralyse the +executive government. Those conditions are not likely to be repeated, +since Russia has now entered upon a fairly peaceful, if somewhat slow, +progress towards constitutional reform. In a war on a land frontier for +which the people were enthusiastic, the military power of Russia would +be tremendous, though there was never any real foundation for the bogey +of Russia as an all-powerful aggressive force. + +The Russian army, based upon conditions of universal liability to +service, can muster in the field for war some 4,000,000 of men. But +considering the vast frontiers to be defended, and the great claims +therefore made by garrison fortresses, it is not likely that more than +1,500,000 could be mobilised in any one district. It is reasonably +possible to imagine a Russian army of a million men being brought to and +maintained on the Pacific littoral: of an even greater army based on, +say, Harbin. That would be a formidable force, especially if enrolled to +fight for the White Races against an Asiatic peril: for then it would +share the old military enthusiasm of the Cossacks. + +There is nothing which will give the inquirer into national +characteristics a better key to the Russian than a knowledge of the old +Cossack organisation. It was formed, in the days of Russia's making as a +nation, from the free spirits of the land, suffering on the one side +from Turkish cruelty, on the other from the devastations of the +Tartars. "Cossacks" meant simply "free men," and, at the outset, they +were freebooters mainly, the Robin Hoods and Hereward the Wakes of +Russia. But the patriotic work of resisting the Tartars and the Turks +gave them a national aim, and in time they formed a military and +religious organisation, unique in the history of European civilisation. +From the village Cossacks--irregular volunteer troops, pursuing normally +the life of villagers, but ready ever to take up arms against Tartar or +Turkish bandits, or to become in turn themselves raiders of the enemy's +caravans and villages--sprung up the Cossack Zaporojskoe, garrisoning +the "Setch," a great military camp in the heart of the Cossack country. +The Cossacks who joined the Setch devoted themselves wholly to military +life. They had to swear to complete chastity, to abstinence whilst at +war from alcohol, and to obedience to the Greek Church. The Cossack +could leave the Setch if he were so inclined, but while he remained +within its boundaries discipline was inexorable. + +In the Setch there was neither organised training, nor compulsory drill, +nor military manoeuvres. With the exception of a few elected officers, +there were, in time of peace, no social distinctions; but the bravest +and the most experienced were treated with respect. For war a Cossack +was elected to command each hundred men; his power was absolute. Several +hundreds formed a regiment, with a colonel at its head, a temporary +officer, elected for one campaign only. The organisation had some +artillery and infantry, but its chief strength lay in its cavalry. It +also built a Fleet of small boats with which it repeatedly raided the +Turkish coast. + +This military monastic order passed away with the closer organisation of +the Russian nation. Despotic Czars could not tolerate a community so +formidable in its virtues. Characteristically enough, it was Catherine +the Great who dealt the final blow to the Cossack Setch. But the Cossack +organisation and spirit, as well as the Cossack name, survive in the +Russian army to-day, and the million or so men whom Russia could muster +on the shores of the North Pacific might have some great say in the +future destinies of the ocean. + +The Japanese army of to-day, an army of veterans, must be credited, in +calculating its value as a military engine, with the moral force of its +record of victory. I confess to a belief in the superiority of the White +Man, _qua_ White Man over any Asiatic: and I am not inclined, therefore, +to accept Japanese generalship and Japanese initiative at their Tokio +valuation. But the 600,000 men whom Japan can put into the field, +perfect in discipline, armed as to the infantry with a first-class +rifle, a little deficient though they may be in artillery and cavalry, +is a most formidable force, unassailable in Japan's home territory, not +to be regarded lightly if called to a campaign on the Asiatic mainland. +Since the war with Russia the Japanese army has been increased: the fact +is evidence of the unslaked warlike enthusiasm of the people. + +China will probably emerge from her present revolutionary troubles, +whatever may be their result, with a seasoned army of great proportions. +The actual military organisation of China at the time of the outbreak of +the present revolt was somewhat nebulous. But an effort was being made +to organise an Imperial army (on plans laid down in 1905) which would +have numbered about 360,000 men trained on the Japanese model. Should +the reformed China decide to follow in the footsteps of Japan as regards +military organisation, the Chinese field force of the future would +number some 2,500,000 men. It is already announced that the new Chinese +Republic will adopt universal military training as part of its system of +national reorganisation. + +The United States, relying on a purely voluntary system for its military +organisation, has, in the opinion of most critics, the framework of an +army rather than an army. The peace strength of the United States +regular army is about 100,000, and from these the Philippine garrison +draws 13,000 men, and the Hawaiian garrison 1000 of all ranks. A +partially trained militia numbers about 100,000 men. For the rest there +are 16,000,000 of men of military age in the nation, but they are +absolutely untrained. In case of a powerful enemy obtaining naval +control of the Pacific, there is danger that the United States would +suffer the ignominy of the occupation, for a time, of her Pacific coast. + +British military forces available for the Pacific come under three +headings: + + British garrisons in India and elsewhere in the Pacific. + + The citizen armies of Australia and New Zealand, and the militia + forces of Canada. + + The Sepoy forces in India. + +The British garrisons total some 80,000 men. They may be classed, +without prejudice, among the best troops in the world, well trained and +with some experience of warfare. But the majority of them are stationed +in India, and few of them could be safely drawn from there in an +emergency. The Sepoy troops number some 250,000, officered generally by +British leaders. It is conceivable that a portion of them could be used +outside of India against coloured races. + +The citizen armies of Australia and New Zealand must be spoken of in the +future tense: for their organisation has just begun, and it will be some +five years before that organisation will be well under way. But so +important is the bearing on Pacific problems of the training of some +quarter of a million of citizen soldiers in the Australasian Dominions +of the British Empire, that attention must be given here to a +description of this army of the future. + +Taking the Australian organisation as the model: The population of +Australia in 1911 was about 4-1/2 millions, of whom there were, on the +basis of the last census-- + + 188,000 males of 14 years and under 18 years; and + 295,000 males of 18 years and under 25 years. + +Allowing for those living in districts too thinly populated to admit of +training without excessive expenditure, or medically unfit for training, +upon the figures at present available, it is estimated that Australia +will have in training, when the scheme is in full operation, each year-- + + 100,000 senior cadets; and + 112,000 citizen soldiers. + +The system will give in eight years' time a force of 126,000 trained +men, and fully equipped. Every year afterwards will increase the reserve +by 12,000 men. And if the training be extended into the country areas, +the numbers may be increased by 40 per cent. Increase of population will +bring, too, an increase of numbers, and my estimate of an eventual +200,000 for the Australian army and 50,000 for the New Zealand army is +probably correct. + +For the leading positions in this army there is provision to train a +number of professional officers. The Military College of Australia is +already in existence, and is organised on a basis of simplicity and +efficiency which reflects the serious purpose of this democratic +military organisation. It is not reserved for the children of the rich. +It is not allowed to become intolerable to the children of the poor by +the luxury of wealthy cadets. To quote from the official conditions:-- + +"The Military College of Australia is established to educate candidates +for commissions in all arms of the Military Forces of the Commonwealth. + +"Only candidates who intend to make the Military Forces their profession +in life will be admitted as Cadets to the Military College. Parents or +guardians are therefore not at liberty to withdraw their sons or wards +at will. + +"Cadets, in joining the Military College, shall be enlisted in the +Permanent Military Forces for a term of twelve years. Service as a Cadet +at the Military College shall be deemed service in the ranks of the +Permanent Military Forces of the Commonwealth. + +"No fees will be charged for equipment or instruction or maintenance of +Cadets, and their travelling expenses within the Commonwealth between +their parents' or guardians' residences and the College will be paid on +first joining and on graduation. + +"The following charges will be admitted against the public and credited +to Cadets' accounts after they have joined:-- + + "Outfit allowance--£30 on joining. + + "Daily allowance of five shillings and sixpence (5s. 6d.) to cover + cost of uniform and clothing, books, instruments, messing, washing + and other expenses. + +"No Cadet will be permitted to receive money, or any other supplies from +his parents or guardians, or any person whomsoever, without the +sanction of the Commandant. A most rigid observance of this order is +urged upon all parents and guardians, as its violation would make +distinctions between Cadets, which it is particularly desired to +prevent. + +"No Cadet, when within the Federal Territory, or when absent on duty +from College, or when in uniform, shall drink any spirituous or +intoxicating liquor, or bring or cause the same to be brought within the +College, or have the same in his room, tent, or otherwise in his +possession. + +"Gambling, lotteries, and raffles are strictly prohibited. They are +serious offences, which will be severely punished. + +"Smoking may be permitted during certain hours and in authorised places. +The smoking of cigarettes is at all times prohibited. A Cadet found in +possession of cigarettes is liable to punishment for disobedience of +orders." + +Canada has a militia force credited at present with a total strength of +55,000 men. Sir Wilfrid Laurier, who controlled the destinies of Canada +for fifteen years up to 1911, was no military enthusiast and believed +profoundly in a peaceful future for his country. In one respect, and in +one respect only, Canada under his rule progressed in defence +organisation: she had her own rifle factory turning out a rifle of +Canadian design. + +But a new spirit moves in Canada to-day in matters of Defence as in +other things. I remember in 1909 speaking at Toronto in advocacy of a +system of universal training for military service. Lieut.-Col. Wm. +Hamilton Merritt, a Canadian militia officer who had learned enthusiasm +for the idea of a "citizen army" on a visit to Switzerland, invited me +to come up to Toronto from New York to speak on the Australian campaign +for the universal training of citizens. The meeting was friendly but not +particularly enthusiastic. My strongest recollection of it is that one +Canadian paper most unjustifiably and absurdly twisted some words of +mine advocating Canadian self-reliance into advice that Canada should +arm "to attack the United States." But the outcome of the meeting was +that a "Canadian Patriotic League" was formed, and from it sprang the +"Canadian Defence League, a non-political association to urge the +importance to Canada of universal physical and naval or military +training." For two years and more, in spite of the earnest efforts of +Canadian enthusiasts, the movement languished. After the General +Election of 1911, however, a quickening came to every department of +Canadian life, and this particularly showed itself in matters of +Defence. In November of that year, Colonel the Hon. S. Hughes, the +Canadian Minister of Militia, called a conference of experts to consider +the organisation of the militia. To that conference the Canadian Defence +League was invited to send representatives, and their presence seemed to +inspire the whole gathering with an enthusiasm for a universal service +system. Summarising from a report sent to me by the Canadian Defence +League: "Universal military training has at last become a live issue +throughout the Dominion of Canada. It was the mainspring behind the +whole machinery of the Militia Conference; almost every man present was +in favour of it, but a few, if the question had come to vote, would have +either refrained from voting or voted against it, because they were +afraid of the possibility of being misunderstood by the public at large. +The cavalry section made no recommendation, and the infantry section +discussed it, while the artillery, which is always in the front, was +strongly in favour of it. Colonel Logie of Hamilton moved and Colonel +Fotheringham of Toronto seconded a resolution recommending the adoption +of the Australian system in Canada. This motion was with a view to +placing the conference on record; but the Minister, in his wisdom, held +the resolution in abeyance, and it did not come to a vote. But in the +closing hours of the conference Senator Power of Nova Scotia positively +and definitely advocated universal military training for the whole of +Canada." + +A universal service system in Canada would provide a citizen army +of--probably--250,000 men of the finest type: and the effect of this +force on Pacific issues would be equal to that of the combined armies of +Australia and New Zealand. + +The military strength of Latin America (the South American Republics and +Mexico) it is difficult to estimate accurately. In almost all cases the +constitution of the Republics provides for "universal service" but fails +to provide for universal training for service. Under modern conditions +of warfare, it is useless to enact that men shall serve unless the +necessary sacrifices of money and leisure are made to train them to +serve. Raw levies could be made of some use almost immediately in a past +epoch of warfare, when the soldier with his "Brown Bess" musket had the +injunction from the drill sergeant to "wait until he could see the +whites of the eyes" of his enemy and then to fire. That needed stolid +nerves mainly, and but little training. In these days raw levies would +be worse than useless, of no value in battles, a burden on the +commissariat and hospital services between battles. The Latin-American +armies must be judged in the light of that fact. Apart from that +caution, the numbers are imposing enough. + +Mexico has an army organisation providing for 30,000 men on a peace +footing and 84,000 men on a war footing. The Argentine army on a peace +footing is about 18,000 strong; on a war footing about 120,000 strong, +exclusive of the National Guard and Territorial troops (forming a second +line). In the Republic of Bolivia the peace footing of the army is 2500: +the probable war footing 30,000. The Republic of Brazil has a universal +service system. The peace strength of the army is 29,000 (to which may +be added a gendarmerie of 20,000). On the outbreak of war there could be +mobilised, it is claimed, five divisions totalling, say, 60,000 men. +Chili has, on a peace footing, about 10,000 men; on a war footing +50,000, exclusive of the reserves (about 34,000). Colombia makes every +man liable to service, but the training is not regular. Possibly 10,000 +men could be mobilised in time of war. Ecuador maintains a permanent +force of about 5000 men, and claims that it could mobilise 90,000 in +case of war. Paraguay has a permanent force of 2500 men and a National +Guard available for service in case of war. + +The South American has proved himself, on occasions, a good and plucky +fighter. But I doubt whether his military forces can be seriously +considered as a factor in the fate of the Pacific, except in the matter +of defending his own territory from invasion. The only armies that count +greatly to-day in the Pacific are those of Japan, Russia, and Great +Britain, in that order, with China and the United States as potential +rather than actual military forces. + + + + +CHAPTER XIV + +TREATIES IN THE PACIFIC + + +There is one actual alliance between two Pacific Powers, Great Britain +and Japan: an _entente_ between Great Britain and Russia: and an +instinct towards friendliness between Great Britain and the United +States. There are several other possible combinations affecting the +ocean in the future. But no Power of the Triple Alliance, nor yet +France, can be considered a factor in the Pacific except in so far as it +may help or hinder a Power already established there. Germany, for +instance, might enter the Pacific as an ally of Japan or the United +States; but she could not without an alliance bring naval or military +force there unless Great Britain had first been humbled in a European +war. + +To the alliance between Great Britain and Japan not very much importance +can be ascribed since its revision in 1911. It threatens to die now of +inanition, as it becomes clear that British aims and Japanese aims in +the Pacific do not move towards a common end. The first British-Japanese +treaty, signed on January 30, 1902, had for its main provisions-- + +"The Governments of Great Britain and Japan, actuated solely by a desire +to maintain the _status quo_ and general peace in the extreme East, +being moreover specially interested in maintaining the independence and +territorial integrity of the Empire of China and the Empire of Corea, +and in securing equal opportunities in those countries for the commerce +and industry of all nations, hereby agree as follows:-- + +"The High Contracting Parties, having mutually recognised the +independence of China and of Corea, declare themselves to be entirely +uninfluenced by any aggressive tendencies in either country. Having in +view, however, their special interests, of which those of Great Britain +relate principally to China, while Japan, in addition to the interests +which she possesses in China, is interested in a peculiar degree +politically, as well as commercially and industrially, in Corea, the +High Contracting Parties recognise that it will be admissible for either +of them to take such measures as may be indispensable in order to +safeguard those interests if threatened either by the aggressive action +of any other Power, or by disturbances arising in China or Corea, and +necessitating the intervention of either of the High Contracting Parties +for the protection of the lives and property of its subjects. + +"If either Great Britain or Japan, in the defence of their respective +interests as above described, should become involved in war with another +Power, the other High Contracting Party will maintain a strict +neutrality, and use its efforts to prevent other Powers from joining in +hostilities against its ally. + +"If in the above event any other Power or Powers should join in +hostilities against that ally, the other High Contracting Party will +come to its assistance and will conduct the war in common, and make +peace in mutual agreement with it. + +"The High Contracting Parties agree that neither of them will, without +consulting the other, enter into separate arrangements with another +Power to the prejudice of the interests above described. + +"Whenever, in the opinion of either Great Britain or Japan, the +above-mentioned interests are in jeopardy, the two Governments will +communicate with one another fully and frankly." + +A letter covering the treaty, addressed by the Marquess of Lansdowne to +the British Minister at Tokio, Sir C. Macdonald, explained the fact that +there was to be no disturbance of Chinese or Corean territory: "We have +each of us desired that the integrity and independence of the Chinese +Empire should be preserved, that there should be no disturbance of the +territorial _status quo_ either in China or in the adjoining regions, +that all nations should, within those regions, as well as within the +limits of the Chinese Empire, be afforded equal opportunities for the +development of their commerce and industry, and that peace should not +only be restored, but should, for the future, be maintained. We have +thought it desirable to record in the preamble of that instrument the +main objects of our common policy in the Far East to which I have +already referred, and in the first Article we join in entirely +disclaiming any aggressive tendencies either in China or Corea." + +But that stipulation did nothing to safeguard Corea's independence, +which was soon sacrificed to Japanese ambition. There was a widespread +feeling of uneasiness in the British Dominions in the Pacific when this +treaty was announced. At the time Canada was having serious trouble on +her Pacific Coast with Japanese immigrants, and the Canadian Pacific +provinces were anxious to prohibit absolutely the entry of more Japanese +to their territory.[8] Australia in 1901 had made the first great deed +of her new national organisation a law practically prohibiting all +coloured immigration, and making the entry of Japanese colonists +impossible. The Act certainly veiled its hostility to the Asiatic races +by a subterfuge. It was not stated in so many words that black skin, +brown skin, and yellow skin were prohibited from entry, but an +educational standard was set up which might be applied to any immigrant, +but needed to be applied to none. In practice it is never applied to the +decent White but always to the coloured man: and its application is such +that the coloured man can never be sure that his standard of education +will be sufficiently high to satisfy the fastidious sense of culture of +an Australian Customs officer. He may be a learned Baboo, B.A. of +Oxford, and Barrister of the Inner Temple, and yet fail to pass the +Australian Education Test, for the ordeal is to take dictation in any +European language, not necessarily English, but perhaps Russian or +modern Greek. New Zealand, without going so far by her legislation, +shows an equal repugnance to any form of Asiatic immigration. + +The "official" view of the British Alliance with Japan, advocated with +some energy, was that it was a benefit to the White Dominions in the +Pacific, for it made them secure against the one aggressive Asiatic +Power. But nevertheless the policy of making the wolf a guardian of the +sheep-fold was questioned in many quarters. The question was asked: +"Presuming a Pacific war in which the United States was the enemy of +Japan?" The answer in the minds of many, in Australia at any rate, and +probably also in Canada and New Zealand, was that in such event the +sympathy, if not the active support, of the British Dominions in the +Pacific would be with the United States, whether Great Britain kept to +her Treaty or not. It was recognised, however, as almost unthinkable +that Great Britain would go to war by the side of Japan against the +American Republic. + +Great Britain is very sensitive to the opinions of her Dominions in +these days of the industrious promulgation of Imperialist sentiment in +Great Britain: and a Canadian or an Australian voter--though he has no +vote for the House of Commons--has far more influence on the destinies +of the Empire than his British compeer. The overseas objection to the +Treaty with Japan had its full effect in the British Cabinet, and that +effect was seen in subsequent modifications of the Treaty. + +On August 12, 1905, the British-Japanese Treaty was renewed, and the +chief articles of the new treaty were:-- + +"The Governments of Great Britain and Japan, being desirous of replacing +the agreement concluded between them on the 30th January, 1902, by fresh +stipulations, have agreed upon the following articles, which have for +their object-- + +"(a) The consolidation and maintenance of the general peace in the +regions of Eastern Asia and of India; + +"(b) The preservation of the common interests of all Powers in China by +insuring the independence and integrity of the Chinese Empire and the +principle of equal opportunities for the commerce and industry of all +nations in China; + +"(c) The maintenance of the territorial rights of the High Contracting +Parties in the regions of Eastern Asia and of India, and the defence of +their special interests in the said regions:-- + +"It is agreed that whenever, in the opinion of either Great Britain or +Japan, any of the rights and interests referred to in the preamble of +this Agreement are in jeopardy, the two Governments will communicate +with one another fully and frankly, and will consider in common the +measures which should be taken to safeguard those menaced rights or +interests. + +"If by reason of unprovoked attack or aggressive action, wherever +arising, on the part of any other Power or Powers, either Contracting +Party should be involved in war in defence of its territorial rights or +special interests mentioned in the preamble of this Agreement, the other +Contracting Party will at once come to the assistance of its ally, and +will conduct the war in common, and make peace in mutual agreement with +it. + +"Japan possessing paramount political, military, and economic interests +in Corea, Great Britain recognises the right of Japan to take such +measures of guidance, control, and protection in Corea as she may deem +proper and necessary to safeguard and advance those interests, provided +always that such measures are not contrary to the principle of equal +opportunities for the commerce and industry of all nations. + +"Great Britain having a special interest in all that concerns the +security of the Indian frontier, Japan recognises her right to take such +measures in the proximity of that frontier as she may find necessary for +safeguarding her Indian possessions. + +"The High Contracting Parties agree that neither of them will, without +consulting the other, enter into separate arrangements with another +Power to the prejudice of the objects described in the preamble of this +Agreement. + +"The conditions under which armed assistance shall be afforded by either +Power to the other in the circumstances mentioned in the present +Agreement, and the means by which such assistance is to be made +available, will be arranged by the naval and military authorities of the +Contracting Parties, who will from time to time consult one another +fully and freely upon all questions of mutual interest. + +"The present Agreement shall, subject to the provisions of Article VI., +come into effect immediately after the date of its signature, and remain +in force for ten years from that date." + +It will be noted that there is, as regards the general responsibility +under the Treaty, some watering down. One Power is bound to come to the +help of the other Power only by reason of "unprovoked attack or +aggressive action" on the part of another Power. The fiction of +preserving the independence of Corea is abandoned. + +On April 3, 1911, a Treaty of Commerce and Navigation was entered into +between Great Britain and Japan. The Japanese Government had revised its +tariff in such a way as to prejudice seriously foreign trade. It was +announced in Japan that certain nations would have the benefit of +"most-favoured nation" rates under the new tariff, but that Great +Britain would not have that benefit, since, being a Free Trade country, +she was able to give no concessions in return. Then the diplomatic +Treaty of 1905 was used by the British Government as an argument for +securing more favoured treatment for British merchants. If the Trade +Treaty of 1911 is closely studied, it will be found that the trade +advantages given to Japan by Great Britain, in return for some real +concessions on the part of Japan to Great Britain, are wholly illusory. +It is difficult to see how they could have been otherwise, since a Free +Trade country can give nothing better than Free Trade to another +country. But Great Britain, a good deal out of conceit at this time with +the diplomatic value of the Treaty of 1905, did not hesitate to use it +as a means of securing some trade benefits. The effect on Japanese +public opinion was not favourable. But the diplomatic position had so +changed that that was not considered a serious circumstance in Great +Britain. + +Two articles of the British-Japanese Trade Treaty of 1911 should be +quoted to show the mutual acceptance by the two Powers of the +independent right of the British overseas Dominions to restrict or +prohibit Japanese immigration: + +"The subjects of each of the High Contracting Parties shall have full +liberty to enter, travel and reside in the territories of the other, +and, conforming themselves to the laws of the country, + +"They shall in all that relates to travel and residence be placed in all +respects on the same footing as native subjects. + +"They shall have the right, equally with native subjects, to carry on +their commerce and manufacture, and to trade in all kinds of merchandise +of lawful commerce, either in person or by agents, singly or in +partnerships with foreigners or native subjects. + +"They shall in all that relates to the pursuit of their industries, +callings, professions, and educational studies be placed in all respects +on the same footing as the subjects or citizens of the most favoured +nation." + +But Article 26 makes this reservation: + +"The stipulations of the present Treaty shall not be applicable to any +of His Britannic Majesty's Dominions, Colonies, Possessions, or +Protectorates beyond the seas, unless notice of adhesion shall have been +given on behalf of any such Dominion, Colony, Possession, or +Protectorate by His Britannic Majesty's Representative at Tokio before +the expiration of two years from the date of the exchange of the +ratifications of the present Treaty." + +A few weeks after the conclusion of this Trade Treaty the +British-Japanese Alliance was renewed on terms which practically "draw +its sting" and abolish the contingency of a British-Japanese war against +the United States, or against any Power with which Great Britain makes +an Arbitration Treaty. The preamble of the British-Japanese Treaty now +reads: + +"The Government of Great Britain and the Government of Japan, having in +view the important changes which have taken place in the situation +since the conclusion of the Anglo-Japanese Agreement of the 12th August, +1905, and believing that a revision of that Agreement responding to such +changes would contribute to the general stability and repose, have +agreed upon the following stipulations to replace the Agreement above +mentioned, such stipulations having the same object as the said +Agreement, namely: + +"(a) The consolidation and maintenance of the general peace in the +regions of Eastern Asia and of India. + +"(b) The preservation of the common interests of all Powers in China by +insuring the independence and integrity of the Chinese Empire, and the +principle of equal opportunities for the commerce and industry of all +nations in China. + +"(c) The maintenance of the territorial rights of the High Contracting +Parties in the regions of Eastern Asia and of India and the defence of +their special interests in the said regions." + +The chief clauses are: + +"If, by reason of unprovoked attack or aggressive action wherever +arising on the part of any Power or Powers, either High Contracting +Party should be involved in war in defence of its territorial rights or +special interests mentioned in the preamble of this Agreement, the other +High Contracting Party will at once come to the assistance of its ally +and will conduct the war in common and make peace in mutual agreement +with it. + +"The High Contracting Parties agree that neither of them will, without +consulting the other, enter into separate arrangements with another +Power to the prejudice of the objects described in the preamble of this +Agreement. + +"Should either High Contracting Party conclude a Treaty of General +Arbitration with a third Power, it is agreed that nothing in this +Agreement shall entail upon such Contracting Party an obligation to go +to war with the Power with whom such Treaty of Arbitration is in force. + +"The present Agreement shall come into effect immediately after the date +of its signature, and remain in force for ten years from that date." + +It will be recognised that there is very little left now of the very +thorough Treaty of 1902. It does not suit Japanese foreign policy that +this fact should be accentuated, and public opinion in that country has +been generally muzzled. Nevertheless, some candid opinions on the +subject have been published in the Japanese press. Thus the Osaka +_Mainichi_ last January, discussing evidently a Japanese disappointment +at the failure of Great Britain to join Japan in some move against +Russia, claimed that "for all practical purposes, the Anglo-Japanese +Alliance ended with its revision last July." In the opinion of the +_Mainichi_, "the Alliance no longer furnishes any guarantee for the +preservation of Chinese integrity. So far from Japan and Great Britain +taking, as the terms of the Alliance provide, joint action to protect +the rights and interests of the two nations when the same are +threatened, no measures have been taken at all." According to the +_Mainichi_, "England is no longer faithful to the principle of the +Alliance as regards the territorial integrity of China, and it is even +rumoured that she has intentions on Tibet, similar to those of Russia in +Mongolia. Consequently it is a matter of supreme importance to know +whether the Alliance is to be considered as still alive or not, and the +Japanese Government would do well to make some explicit declaration on +the subject." + +This view was supported by the Tokio _Nichi-Nichi_, which wrote: "For a +long time now the feeling between Great Britain and Japan has been +undergoing a change. There is no concealing the fact that it is no +longer what it was before the Russo-Japanese War. At the time of the +Tariff the friendly relations were only maintained by concessions from +the side of the Japanese. The revision of the terms of the Alliance has +reduced it from a real value to this country to a merely nominal value. +The friendship which has been steadily growing between Great Britain and +Russia is something to be watched. The action of Great Britain in the +China trouble has not been true to the Alliance. The tacit consent given +to Russian action in Mongolia is a violation of the integrity of China, +and on top of it we are informed that Great Britain at the right moment +will adopt similar steps in Tibet." + +The British-Japanese Treaty, for as much as it stands for, is the only +definite treaty affecting big issues in the Pacific to-day. To attempt +to discuss all possible treaties and combinations in the Pacific would +be, of course, impossible. But some notice must be given of the recent +remarkable hint of the possibilities of an "understanding" between +Germany and the United States on Pacific questions. In February Mr Knox, +the United States Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, communicated +in a formal Note to Germany some views on Pacific questions. Commenting +on this, the _New York Sun_, whose correspondent at Washington is a +great deal in the confidence of the Government, commented: "The +significance of Mr Knox's Note as a warning will, it is thought, be +clearly seen by the other Powers. The fact that the writing and +publication of Mr Knox's Note are the result of an understanding between +Germany and the United States will greatly add to the force of the +document. The other Powers, according to the Washington view, will +hesitate long before embarking upon the policy of advancing their +special interests by taking advantage of China's distress when Germany +and the United States are standing together before the world in +opposition to any such move." + +An "understanding" between Germany and the United States to act together +on the Asiatic side of the Pacific littoral would have its strategic +importance in the fact that German power in the Atlantic would help to +lessen certain risks consequent upon the United States concentrating her +naval forces in the Pacific. + +Another reasonably possible combination should be noted. As one of three +partners in the Triple Entente, Great Britain has an understanding with +Russia, which might possibly affect one day the position in the Pacific. +It is a fact rumoured among European diplomats that France, with the +idea of maintaining the Triple Entente as a basis of future +world-action, has urged Russia to build a Pacific Fleet, abandoning +naval expansion in the Baltic and the Black Sea. With a strong Pacific +Fleet Russia would certainly be a much more valuable friend to France +and to Great Britain than at present. But that is "in the air." The +actual position is that Great Britain and Russia are on such excellent +terms that they can fish amicably together to-day in the very disturbed +waters of Persia, and are possible future partners in the Pacific. + +Those who consider a British-Russian alliance as impossible, forget the +history of centuries and remember only that of a generation. Anciently +the Russian and the Englishman were the best of friends, and Russian aid +was often of very material use to Great Britain. It was in the eleventh +century that King Canute established English naval power in the Baltic, +and thus opened up a great trade with the Russian town of Novgorod. He +helped the young Russian nation much in so doing. After Canute's death +this trade with Russia languished for five centuries. But in the +sixteenth century it was revived, and some centuries later it was said +of this revival: "The discovery of a maritime intercourse with the Great +Empire of Russia, and the consequent extension of commerce and +navigation, is justly regarded by historians as the first dawn of the +wealth and naval preponderance of England." Some indeed hold that the +great exploits of the Elizabethan era of British seamanship would not +have been possible without the maritime supplies--cordage, canvas, +tallow, spars and salt beef--obtained from Russia. + +The benefits of the friendship were not all on one side. In the +seventeenth century England helped Russia with arms, supplies and troops +against the Poles. In 1747 England paid Russia to obtain an army of +37,000 troops which was employed in Holland. Later it was agreed that +Russia was to keep ready, on the frontiers of Livonia, an army of 47,000 +troops beside forty galleys to be used in the defence of Hanover, for +England, if needed. At a later date Catherine the Great of Russia was +appealed to for 20,000 troops for service against the revolted American +colonies, an appeal which she very wisely rejected. In the wars against +Napoleon, Great Britain and Russia were joint chiefs of the European +coalition, and a Russian Fleet was stationed in British waters doing +good service at the time of the Mutiny of the Nore. A British-Russian +understanding, in short, has been the rule rather than the exception in +European politics since the fifteenth century. + +An instinct of friendliness between Great Britain and the United States, +though expressed in no formal bonds, is yet a great force in the +Pacific. There has been at least one occasion on which an American force +in the Pacific has gone to the help of a British naval force engaging an +Asiatic enemy. There are various more or less authentic stories showing +the instinct of the armed forces of both nations to fraternise. +Sometimes it is the American, sometimes the British sailor who is +accused of breaking international law in his bias for the men of his own +speech and race. It would not be wise to record incidents, which were +irregular if they ever happened, and which, therefore, had best be +forgotten. But the fact of the American man-of-war's-men in Apia +Harbour, Samoa, finding time during their own rush to destruction at the +hands of a hurricane to cheer a British warship steaming out to safety, +is authentic, and can be cited without any harm as one instance of the +instinctive friendship of the two peoples in the Pacific of common blood +and common language. + +FOOTNOTES: + +[8] This proposal has now (1912) been revived in the face of the +disquieting uprise of Chinese power. It is an indication of the stubborn +resolve of the White populations to prohibit Asiatic immigration. + + + + +CHAPTER XV + +THE PANAMA CANAL + + +The poetry that is latent in modern science, still awaiting its singer, +shows in the story of the Panama Canal. Nature fought the great French +engineer, de Lesseps, on that narrow peninsula, and conquered him. His +project for uniting the waterways of the Pacific and the Atlantic was +defeated. But not by hills or distances. Nature's chief means of +resistance to science was the mobilising of her armies of subtle +poisoners. The microbes of malaria, yellow fever, of other diseases of +the tropical marshes, fell upon the canal workers. The mortality was +frightful. Coolie workers, according to one calculation, had a year's +probability of life when they took to work on the canal. The +superintendents and engineers of the White Race went to their tasks as +soldiers go to a forlorn hope. Finally the forces of disease conquered. +The French project for cutting a canal through the isthmus of Panama was +abandoned, having ruined the majority of those who had subscribed to its +funds, having killed the majority of those who had given to it of their +labour. + +The United States having decided to take over the responsibility for a +task of such advantage to the world's civilisation, gave to it at the +outset the benefit of a scientific consideration touched with +imagination. There were hills to be levelled, ditches to be dug, +water-courses to be tamed, locks to be built. All that was clear enough. +But how to secure the safety of the workers? Nature's defenders, though +fed fat with victory, were still eager, relentless for new victims. +Science said that to build a canal wholesome working conditions must be +created: yellow fever and malaria abolished. Science also told how. The +massacre of the mosquitoes of the isthmus was the first task in +canal-building. + +The mosquitoes, the disseminators of the deadly tropical diseases, were +attacked in their breeding grounds, and their larvæ easily destroyed by +putting a film of oil over the surface of the shallow waters in which +they lived. The oil smothered the life in the larvæ, and they perished +before they had fully developed. The insect fortunately has no great +range of flight. Its life is short, and it cannot pass far from its +birthplace. Herodotus tells how Egyptians avoided mosquitoes by sleeping +in high towers. The natives of Papua escape them by building their huts +in the forks of great trees. If the mosquitoes are effectively +exterminated within a certain area, there is certainty of future +immunity from them within that area if the marshes, the pools--the +stagnant waters generally on its boundaries--are thereafter guarded +during the hatching season against the chance of mosquito larvæ coming +to winged life. At Suez scientists had found this all out. Science +conquered the mosquito in Panama as it had been conquered elsewhere, and +the entrenchments of Nature crumbled away. Henceforth it was a matter of +rock-cutters, steam shovels and explosives, the A B C of modern +knowledge. But the mosquito put up a stubborn fight. Driven out of the +marshes, it found a refuge in the cisterns of houses, even in the +holy-water founts of churches. Every bit of stagnant water within the +isthmus area had to be protected against the chance of mosquitoes coming +to life before the campaign was successful. To-day the isthmus of Panama +is by no means unhealthy, and the work of canal-cutting progresses so +well that Mr President Taft was able to announce recently the +probability of it being opened two years before the due date. That +brings the canal as a realised fact right into the present. + +Some few facts regarding this engineering work. It will cost about +£70,000,000. The total length of the canal to be made from sea to sea is +50-1/2 miles, with a maximum width on the bottom of 1000 feet. The land +excavation is 40-1/2 miles of cutting through rock, sand and clay, +leaving 10 miles of channel to be deepened to reach the sea at either +end. Some of the other construction dimensions are these:-- + + Locks, usable length 1,000 feet. + Locks, usable width 110 feet. + Gatun Lake, area 164 square miles. + Gatun Lake, channel depth 84 to 45 feet. + Excavation, estimated total 174,666,594 cubic yards. + Concrete, total estimated for canal 5,000,000 cubic yards. + +The Gatun is the greatest rock and earth-fill dam ever attempted. +Forming Gatun Lake by impounding the waters of the Chagres and other +streams, it will be nearly 1-1/2 miles long, nearly 1/2 mile wide at its +base, about 400 feet wide at the water surface, about 100 feet wide at +the top. Its crest, as planned, will be at an elevation of 115 feet +above mean sea-level, or 30 feet above the normal level of the lake. The +interior of the dam is being formed of a natural mixture of sand and +clay placed between two large masses of rock, and miscellaneous material +obtained from steam-shovel excavation at various points along the canal. + +Gatun Lake will cover an area of 164 square miles, with a depth in the +ship channel varying from 85 to 45 feet. The necessity for this +artificial lake is because of the rugged hills of Panama. A sea-level +canal would have been a financial impossibility. By a lock system +lifting vessels up to Gatun Lake (a height of 85 feet), an immense +amount of excavation was saved. Incidentally the alarm was allayed of +that ingenious speculator who foretold that the Gulf Stream would take a +new path through the Panama Canal and desert the West Coast of Europe, +on the climate of which it has so profound an influence. When the canal +was opened England was to revert to her "natural climate"--that of +Labrador! But since the canal will not be a sea-level one, it cannot of +course have the slightest effect on ocean currents. The amount of +Pacific and Atlantic water which will be mutually exchanged by its +agency each year will be insignificant. + +The Panama Canal, when opened, will be exclusively United States +property; it will be fortified and defended by the United States army +and navy: and it will probably in time of peace be used to help United +States trade, and in time of war to help the United States arms. All +those conclusions are natural, since the United States has found the +money for the work, and claims under the Monroe doctrine an exclusive +hegemony of the American continent south of the Canadian border. But +originally it was thought that the canal would be, in a sense, an +international one. Later the idea was entertained, and actually +embodied, in a treaty between Great Britain and the United States that +whilst "the United States should have the exclusive right of providing +for the regulation and management of the canal," it should not be +fortified. But the Treaty of 1902 between Great Britain and the United +States abrogated that, and provided for the "neutralisation" of the +canal. It was stipulated that "the United States adopts, as the basis of +the neutralisation of such ship canal, the following rules, +substantially as embodied in the Convention of Constantinople, signed +the 28th October 1888, for the free navigation of the Suez Canal." The +Rules provide that the canal shall be open to the vessels of commerce +and war of all nations on terms of equality, so that there shall be no +discrimination against any nation or its citizens or subjects in respect +to conditions or charges. + +Rule 2 states: "The canal shall never be blockaded, nor shall any right +of war be exercised, nor any act of hostility be committed within it. +The United States, however, shall be at liberty to maintain such +military police along the canal as may be necessary to protect it +against lawlessness and disorder." The third rule prohibits vessels of +war of a belligerent from revictualling or taking on stores in the canal +except so far as may be strictly necessary. Under Rule 4 belligerents +may not embark or disembark troops, munitions of war, or warlike +materials, except in case of accidental hindrance in transit, "and in +that case the transit shall be resumed with all possible despatch. +Waters adjacent to the canal within three marine miles of either end are +considered as part of the canal. Vessels of war of a belligerent are not +permitted to remain in those waters longer than twenty-four hours, +except in case of distress." The last rule makes the plant, +establishments, buildings, and the works necessary for the construction, +maintenance and operation of the canal part of the canal, "and in time +of war, as in time of peace, they shall enjoy complete immunity from +attack or injury by belligerents, and from acts calculated to impair +their usefulness as part of the canal." + +But it seems clear that anything, stated or implied, in that Treaty, +which is calculated to limit the sovereign rights of the United States +in regard to the canal, will be allowed to be forgotten, for the canal +has lately, since the question of the control of the Pacific came to the +front, shown to the United States even more as a military than as an +industrial necessity. In war time the United States will use the canal +so that she may mobilise her Fleet in either ocean. Already she has +passed estimates amounting to £3,000,000 for installing 14-inch guns, +searchlights, and submarine mines at either entrance. She is also +establishing a naval base at Cuba to guard the Atlantic entrance, and +designs yet another base at the Galapagos Islands. At present those +islands belong to Ecuador, and Ecuador objects to parting with them. But +it is probable that a way will be found out of that difficulty, for it +is clear that a strong United States naval base must be established on +the Pacific as well as the Atlantic threshold of the canal. This base, +with another at Cuba, would meet the objection I saw raised by an +American Admiral last year when he said: "In the event of the United +States being at war with a first-class naval Power, I doubt very much +whether the canal would be used once hostilities were declared. I assume +that our opponent would have so disposed his Fleets as to engage ours in +the Atlantic or Pacific coasts according as circumstances might +require, and that if we were stupid or careless enough to be caught +napping with our vessels scattered, no person in authority with any +sense would risk sending our ships through the canal. Our enemy would +lie in wait for us and pick off our vessels as they entered or emerged +from the canal, and every advantage would be on their side and against +us. This, of course, is on the assumption that the opposing force would +be at least as powerful as our own. If we had preponderating strength +conditions would be different, but if the navies were evenly matched it +would be hazardous in the extreme to use the canal. Nor would the +fortifications be of much help to us. So long as our ships remained +within the waters of the canal zone they would, of course, be under the +protection of the guns of the forts, but as soon as they came on the +high seas, where they would have to come if they were to be of any use, +the fortifications would be of little benefit to them, and little injury +to the enemy." + +But when to the actual fortification of the canal is added the provision +of a strong advanced base near each entrance, this criticism falls to +the ground. Between those advanced bases would be "American water," and +on either base a portion of the American Fleet could hold an enemy in +check until the mobilisation of the whole Fleet. + +The world must make up its mind to the fact that the Panama Canal is +intended by the United States as a means of securing her dominance in +the Pacific, without leaving her Atlantic coast too bare of protection +in the event of a great war. Great Britain is the only Power with any +shadow of a claim to object, and her claim would be founded on treaties +and arrangements which she has either abrogated or allowed to fall into +oblivion. Probably it will never be put forward. By a course of +negotiation, which, for steadiness of purpose and complete concealment +of that purpose until the right time came for disclosure, might be a +pattern to the most effective fighting despotism, the American democracy +has surmounted all obstacles of diplomacy in Panama just as the +obstacles of disease and distance were surmounted. The reluctance of a +disorderly sister Republic to grant the territory for the canal was +overcome by adding a beneficent one to its numerous useless revolutions. +The jealousy of Europe was first soothed and ultimately defied. It is +safe to venture the opinion that the reluctance of Ecuador to part with +the Galapagos will also be overcome. Then from New York to Pekin will +stretch a series of American naval bases--Cuba, Panama, the Galapagos, +Hawaii, the Philippines. + +The intention, announced on some authority, of the United States to use +the canal in times of peace as a tariff weapon for the furthering of +American trade may arouse some protest, but it is difficult to see how +such a protest can have any effect. The United States will be able to +reply that it is her canal, bought with her own money, and that it is +her right, therefore, to do with it as she pleases. In a special message +to Congress at the end of 1911, Mr Taft urged the necessity for the +establishment of preferential rates for American shipping passing +through the Panama Canal. He cited the practice of foreign Governments +in subsidising their merchant vessels, and declared that an equivalent +remission of canal tolls in favour of American commerce could not be +held to be discrimination. The message went on: "Mr Taft does not +believe that it would be the best policy wholly to remit the tolls for +domestic commerce for reasons purely fiscal. He desires to make the +canal sufficiently profitable to meet the debt amassed for its +construction, and to pay the interest upon it. On the other hand, he +wishes to encourage American commerce between the Atlantic and the +Pacific, especially in so far as it will insure the effectiveness of the +canal as a competitor with the trans-Continental railways." The +President concluded, therefore, that some experimentation in tolls would +be necessary before rates could be adjusted properly, or the burden +which American shipping could equitably bear could be definitely +ascertained. He hinted at the desirability of entrusting such +experimentation to the executive rather than to the legislative branch +of the Government. + +In plain language, the United States Government asked for a free hand to +shape rates for the use of the Panama Canal so that American shipping +interests could be promoted. The shipping affected would not be merely +from one American port to another, but between American and foreign +countries. By the present shipping laws American "coastal trade" i.e. +trade between one American port and another, even if one of the ports be +Manila or Honolulu, is closely safeguarded for American bottoms by a +rigid system of Protection. + +A _Daily Telegraph_ correspondent, writing from New York to London at +the time of Mr President Taft's message, described the trend of American +public opinion which was shown by the changing of the registry of the +Red Star liners _Kroonland_ and _Finland_ from Belgian to American. +"This morning Captain Bradshaw, an American, assumed command, and the +ceremony of hauling down the foreign flag and hoisting the Stars and +Stripes took place. The reasons for the change are not announced, but it +is said that the approaching completion of the Panama Canal has +something to do with it, and shipping circles here declare that the +change of registry presages the entry of the _Kroonland_ and her sister +ship the _Finland_ into the American coast trade between Pacific and +Atlantic ports, _via_ the Panama Canal. It is expected that a heavy +subsidy will be given to American steamships by the United States +Government carrying mails from the Atlantic to the Pacific _via_ Panama, +and it is generally believed that the owners of the _Kroonland_ and the +_Finland_ have this in mind." + +Clearly the United States, having expended £70,000,000 directly, and a +great deal indirectly, on the Panama Canal, intends to put it to some +profitable use, both in war time and in peace time. Naval supremacy in +the Pacific in war time, industrial supremacy in peace time--those are +the benefits which she expects to derive. + + + + +CHAPTER XVI + +THE INDUSTRIAL POSITION IN THE PACIFIC + + +That our civilisation is based on conditions of warring struggle is +shown by the fact that even matters of production and industry are +discussed in terms of conflict. The "war of tariffs," the "struggle for +markets," the "defence of trade," the "protection of our work"--these +are every-day current phrases; and the problem of the Pacific as it +presents itself to the statesmen of some countries has little concern +with navies or armies, but almost exclusively comes as an industrial +question: "Will our national interests be affected adversely by the +cheap competition of Asiatic labour, either working on its home +territory or migrating to our own land, now that the peoples of the +Pacific are being drawn into the affairs of the world?" + +Viewed in the light of abstract logic, it seems the quaintest of +paradoxes that the very act of production of the comforts and +necessities of life can be considered, under any circumstances, a +hostile one. Viewed in the light of the actual living facts of the day, +it is one of the clearest of truths that a nation and a race may be +attacked and dragged down through its industries, and that national +greatness is lost and won in destructive competition in the workshops of +the world. That industry itself may be turned to bad account is another +proof that an age, in which there is much talk of peace, is still +governed in the main by the ideas of warfare. The other day, to Dr Hall +Edwards, known as the "X-ray Martyr," a grateful nation gave a pension +of £120 a year after he had had his second hand amputated. He had given +practically his life ("for you do take my life when you take the means +whereby I live") to Humanity. As truly as any martyr who died for a +religious idea or a political principle, or for the rescue of another in +danger, he had earned the blessing decreed to whomsoever gives up his +life for his brother. And he was awarded a pension of £120 a year to +comfort the remainder of his maimed existence! At the same time that Dr +Hall Edwards was awarded his pension, an engineer thought he had +discovered a new principle in ballistics. His bold and daring mind +soared above the puny guns by which a man can hardly dare to hope to +kill a score of other men at a distance of five miles. He dreamed of an +electric catapult which "could fire shells at the rate of thousands per +minute from London to Paris, and even further." The invention would have +raised the potential homicidal power of man a thousandfold. And the +inventor asked--and, without a doubt, if he had proved his weapon to be +what he said, would have got--£1,000,000. The invention did not justify +at the time the claims made on its behalf. But a new method of +destruction which did, could command its million pounds with certainty +from almost any civilised government in the world. + +In industry also the greatest fortunes await those who can extend their +markets by destroying the markets of their rivals, and nations aim at +increasing their prosperity by driving other nations out of a home or a +neutral market. There is thus a definitely destructive side to the work +of production; and some foresee in the future an Asiatic victory over +the White Races, not effected directly by force of arms but by +destructive industrial competition which would sap away the foundations +of White power. How far that danger is real and how far illusory is a +matter worthy of examination. + +At the outset the theoretical possibility of such a development must be +admitted, though the practical danger will be found to be not serious, +since it can be met by simple precautions. There are several familiar +instances in European history of a nation being defeated first in the +industrial or commercial arena, and then, as an inevitable sequel, +falling behind in the rivalry of war fleets and armies. In the Pacific +there may be seen some facts illustrating the process. The Malay +Peninsula, for instance, is becoming rapidly a Chinese instead of a +Malay Colony of Great Britain. In the old days the Malays, instinctively +hostile to the superior industry and superior trading skill of the +Chinese, kept out Chinese immigrants at the point of the kris. With the +British overlordship the Chinaman has a fair field, and he peacefully +penetrates the peninsula, ousting the original inhabitants. In Fiji, +again, Hindoo coolies have been imported by the sugar-planters to take +the place of the capricious Fijian worker. Superior industry and +superior trading skill tell, and the future fate of Fiji is to be an +Indian colony with White overseers, the Fijian race vanishing. + +In both these instances, however, the dispossessed race is a coloured +one. Could a White Race be ousted from a land in the same way, presuming +that the White Race is superior and not inferior? Without doubt, yes, if +the coloured race were allowed ingress, for they would instil into the +veins of the White community the same subtle poison as would a slave +class. The people of every land which comes into close contact with the +Asiatic peoples of the West Pacific littoral know this, and in all the +White communities of the ocean there is a jealousy and fear of Asiatic +colonisation. The British colonies in the Pacific, in particular, are +determined not to admit the Asiatic races within their border. That +determination was ascribed by a British Colonial Secretary of a past era +as due to "an industrial reason and a trade union reason, the +determination that a country having been won by the efforts and the +struggle of a White Race and rescued from barbarism should not be made +the ground of competition by men who had not been engaged in that +struggle." But I prefer to think that the reason lies deeper than the +fear of cheaper labour. It springs rather from the consciousness that a +higher race cannot live side by side with a lower race and preserve its +national type. If the labouring classes have always been in the van of +anti-Asiatic movements in the White colonies of the Pacific, it is +because the labouring classes have come first into contact with the +evils of Asiatic colonisation. It is now some years since I first put +forward as the real basis of the "White Australia" policy "the instinct +against race-mixture which Nature has implanted in man to promote her +work of evolution." That view was quoted by Mr Richard Jebb in his +valuable _Studies in Colonial Nationalism_, and at once it won some +acceptance in Great Britain which before had been inclined to be hostile +to the idea of "White Australia." Subsequently in a paper before the +Royal Society of Arts Mr Jebb took occasion to say: + +"Let me enter a protest against the still popular fallacy that the +Pacific attitude (_i.e._ in regard to Asiatic labour) is dictated merely +by the selfish insistence of well-organised and rapacious labour. Two +circumstances tell decisively against this view. One is that responsible +local representatives, not dependent upon labour suffrages, invariably +argue for restriction or exclusion on the higher social and political +grounds in relation to which the labour question is subsidiary, although +essential. The second evidence is the modern adherence to the +restriction movement of nearly all Australasians and an increasing +number of Canadians, who are not 'in politics' and whose material +interests in many cases are opposed to the extravagant demands of +labour. Their insight contrasts favourably, I think, with that perverse +body of opinion, to be found in all countries, which instinctively +opposes some policy of enormous national importance lest the immediate +advantage should accrue to persons not thought to deserve the benefit." + +But whilst the industrial reason is not the only reason, nor even the +chief reason, against Asiatic immigration into a White colony, there is, +of course, a special objection on the part of the industrial classes to +such immigration. It is for that reason that there has been in all the +White settlements of the Pacific a small section, angered by what they +considered to be the exorbitant demands of the workers, anxious to +enlist the help of Asiatic labour for the quick development of new +territories, and in some cases this section has had its way to an +extent. Some of the Canadian railways were built with the help of +Chinese labour: and Western Canada has that fact chiefly to thank for +her coloured race troubles to-day--not so serious as those of the United +States with the Negroes, but still not negligible altogether. In +Australia it was at one time proposed to introduce Chinese as workers in +the pastoral industry: and one monstrous proposal was that Chinese men +should be mated with Kanaka women in the South Sea Islands to breed +slave labour for sheep stations and farms in Australia. + +Fortunately that was frustrated, as were all other plans of Asiatic +immigration, and as soon as the Australian colonists had been allowed +the right to manage their own affairs they made a first use of their +power by passing stringent laws against Asiatic immigrations. A typical +Act was that passed in 1888 in New South Wales. By that Act it was +provided that no ship should bring Chinese immigrants to a greater +number than one for every 300 tons of cargo measurement (thus a ship of +3000 tons could not bring more than ten Chinese): and each Chinaman on +landing had to pay a poll tax of £100. Chinese could not claim +naturalisation rights and could not engage in gold-mining without +permission. Since then the Australian Commonwealth has passed a law +which absolutely prohibits coloured immigration, under the subterfuge of +an Education Test. New Zealand shares with Australia a policy of +rigorous exclusion of Asiatics. In Canada the desire lately evinced of +the Western people to exclude Asiatics altogether has been thwarted, so +far, by the political predominance of the Eastern states, which have not +had a first-hand knowledge of the evils following upon Asiatic +immigration, and have vetoed the attempts of British Columbia to bar out +the objectionable colonists. But some measures of exclusion have been +adopted enforcing landing fees on Chinese; and, by treaty, limiting the +number of Japanese permitted to enter. Further rights of exclusion are +still sought. In the United States there have been from time to time +rigorous rules for the exclusion of Chinese, sometimes effected by +statute, sometimes by agreement with China, and at present Chinese +immigration is forbidden. The influx of Japanese is also prevented under +a treaty with Japan. + +The industrial position in the Pacific is thus governed largely by the +fact that in all the White settlements on its borders there are more or +less complete safeguards against competition by Asiatic labour on the +White man's territory: and that the tendency is to make these safeguards +more stringent rather than to relax them. Nothing short of a war in the +Pacific, giving an Asiatic Power control of its waters, would allow +Asiatics to become local competitors in the labour markets of those +White settlements. + +But debarred from colonisation the Asiatic has still two other chances +of competition: + +(1) In the home markets of his White rivals in the Pacific; + +(2) In such neutral markets as are open to his goods on equal terms with +theirs. + +The first chance can be swept away almost completely by hostile tariffs, +which it is in the power of any of the White nations to impose. There +are no Free Trade ideas in the Pacific; the United States, Canada, New +Zealand, and Australia, all alike protect their home markets against any +destructive Asiatic competition. If Japanese boots or Chinese steel +work began to invade the markets of Australia or America to any serious +extent, the case would be met at once by a hostile tariff revision. + +The second chance, open to the Asiatic industrial, that of competing +with White labour in neutral markets, of cutting into the export trade +of his rivals, is greater. But even it is being constantly limited by +the tendency to-day which makes for the linking up of various nations +into groups for mutual benefit in matters of trade; and which also makes +for the gradual absorption of independent markets into the sphere of +influence of one or other group. Some students of tariff subjects +foresee the day when a nation will rely for export markets on dominions +actually under its sway and on a strictly limited entrance to foreign +markets paid for by reciprocal concessions. They foresee the whole world +divided up into a limited number of "spheres of influence" and no areas +left for free competition of traders of rival nations. Under such +circumstances a Power would have free and full entry only into those +territories actually under its sway. Into other markets its entry would +be restricted by local national considerations and also by the interests +of the Imperial system having dominion there. + +Present facts certainly point to the dwindling of neutral markets. An +effort is constantly made by "open-door" agreements to keep new markets +from being monopolised by any one Power, and great nations have shown +their appreciation of the importance of keeping some markets "open" by +intimations of their willingness to fight for the "open door" in some +quarter or other of the world. Nevertheless doors continue to be shut +and events continue to trend towards an industrial position matching the +military position, a world dominated in various spheres by great Powers +as jealous for their trading rights as for their territorial rights. + +Imagining such a position, the Asiatic industrial influence in the +Pacific would depend strictly on the Asiatic military and naval +influence. For the present, however, there are many neutral markets, and +in these, without a doubt, Asiatic production is beginning to oust +European production to some extent. In the textile industries, +particularly, Asiatic production, using European machinery, is +noticeably cheaper than European. Yet, withal, the cheapness of Asiatic +labour is exaggerated a great deal by many economists. It will be found +on close examination that whilst the Asiatic wage rate is very low, the +efficiency rate is low in almost equal proportion. Some effective +comparisons are possible from the actual experience of Asiatic and other +coloured labour. In the mining industry, for instance, Chinese labour, +the most patient, industrious, tractable and efficient form of Asiatic +labour, does not stand comparison with White industry. In Australia +Chinese labour has been largely employed in the Northern Territory +mines: it has not proved economical.[9] The Broken Hill (silver) and +Kalgoorlie (gold) mines in the same continent, worked exclusively by +highly-paid White labour, show better results as regards economy of +working than the Rand (South Africa) gold mines with Kaffir or with +Chinese coolie labour. + +The Chinaman has a great reputation as an agriculturist, and at +vegetable-growing he seems able to hold his own in competition with +White labour, for he can follow in that a patient and laborious routine +with success. In no other form of agriculture does he compete +successfully with the White farmer. In Australia, for example, where the +Chinese are still established as market-gardeners, they fail at all +other sorts of farming, and it is an accepted fact that a Chinese tiller +will ruin orchard land in a very short time if it comes under his +control. + +In navvying work and in dock-labouring work the Asiatic coolie is not +really economical. To see four coolies struggling to carry one frozen +carcase of mutton off a steamer at Durban, with a fifth coolie to +oversee and help the voluble discussion which usually accompanies coolie +work; and to contrast the unloading of the same cargo by White labour, +with one man one carcase the rule, is to understand why low wages do not +always mean low labour costs. + +When any particular problem of production has been reduced to a +practically mechanical process, when the need of initiative, of thought, +of keen attention, has been eliminated, Asiatic work can compete +successfully with White work, though the individual Asiatic worker will +not, even then, be capable of the same rate of production as the +individual White worker. But in most domains of human industry the +Asiatic worker, in spite of his very much lower initial cost, cannot +compete with the European. Intelligent labour is still the cheapest +ultimately in most callings, even though its rate of pay be very much +higher. In practical experience it has often been found that a White +worker can do more whilst working eight hours a day than whilst working +ten hours, on account of the superior quality of his work when he has +better opportunities for rest and recreation. The same considerations +apply, with greater force, to comparisons between White and "coloured" +labour. + +A fact of importance in the discussion of this point is the effect of +impatient White labour in encouraging, of patient Asiatic labour in +discouraging, the invention and use of machinery. The White worker is +always seeking to simplify his tasks, to find a less onerous way. (He +discovers, for instance, that the wheel-barrow saves porterage.) Now +that coloured labour is being banished from cotton-fields and +sugar-brakes, we hear talk of machines which will pick cotton and trash +cane-fields. + +The industrial position in the Pacific as regards White and "coloured" +labour is then to-day this: Owing to the efforts, sometimes expressed in +terms of legal enactment, sometimes of riot and disorder,[2] of the +British race colonists in the Pacific, the settlements of Australia and +New Zealand have been kept almost entirely free from Asiatic colonists: +and the Pacific slopes of the United States and Canada have been but +little subjected to the racial taint. Asiatic rivalry in the industrial +sphere must therefore be directed from Asiatic territory. The goods, not +the labour, must be exported; and the goods can be met with hostile +tariffs just as the labour is met with Exclusion Acts. In neutral +markets the products of Asiatic labour can compete with some success +with the products of the labour of the White communities, but not with +that overwhelming success which an examination of comparative wage rates +would suggest. Under "open door" conditions Asiatic peoples could kill +many White industries in the Pacific; but "open door" conditions could +only be enforced by a successful war. Such a war, of course, would be +followed by the sweeping away of immigration restrictions as well as +goods restrictions. + +There is another, the Asiatic, side to the question. Without a doubt the +Asiatic territories in the Pacific will not continue to offer rich +prizes for European Powers seeking trade advantages through setting up +"spheres of influence." Since Japan won recognition as a nation she has +framed her tariffs to suit herself. In the earlier stages of her +industrial progress she imported articles, learned to copy them, and +then imposed a prohibitive tariff on their importation. Various kinds of +machinery were next copied and their importation stopped. China may be +expected to follow the same plan. Europe and America may not expect to +make profits out of exploiting her development. A frank recognition of +this fact would conduce to peace in the Pacific. If it can be agreed +that neither as regards her territory nor her markets is China to be +served up as the prize of successful dominance of the Pacific, one of +the great promptings to warfare there would disappear. "Asia for the +Asiatics" is a just policy, and would probably prove a wise one. + +In discussing the position of Asiatic labour in the Pacific I have taken +a view which will dissatisfy some alarmists who cite the fact that the +wage rate for labour in Western Canada and Australia is about 8s. a day, +and in China and Japan about 1s. a day; and conclude therefore that the +Asiatic power in the industrial field is overwhelming. But an +examination of actual working results rather than theoretical +conclusions from a limited range of facts will very much modify that +conclusion. Asiatic labour competition, if allowed liberty of access for +the worker as well as his work, would undoubtedly drag down the White +communities of the Pacific. But when the competition is confined to the +work, and the workman is kept at a distance, it is not at all as serious +a matter as some have held, and can always be easily met with tariff +legislation. The most serious blow to European and American +industrialism that Asia could inflict would be an extension of the +Japanese protective system to the Asiatic mainland. Yet that we could +not grumble at; and it would have a compensating advantage in taking +away the temptation to conflict which the rich prize of a suzerainty +over the Chinese market now dangles before the industrial world. + +There are now one or two industrial facts of less importance to which +attention may be drawn. The United States, with the completion of the +Panama Canal, will be the greatest industrial Power of the Pacific. Her +manufacturing interests are grouped nearer to the east than the west +coast--partly because of the position of her coalfields,--and the fact +has hitherto stood in the way of her seaport trade to the Pacific. With +the opening of the canal her eastern ports will find the route to the +Pacific reduced greatly, and they will come into closer touch with the +western side of South America, with Asia, and with the British +communities in the South Pacific. The perfect organisation of the +industrial machinery of the United States will give her a position of +superiority analogous to that which Great Britain had in the Atlantic at +the dawn of the era of steam and steel. + +Western Canada is a possible great industrial factor of the future when +she learns to utilise the tremendous water power of the Selkirks and +Rockies. The Canadian people have the ambition to become manufacturers, +and already they satisfy the home demand for many lines of manufactured +goods, and have established an export trade in manufactures worth about +£7,000,000 a year. Australia, too, aspires to be a manufacturing +country, and though she has not risen yet to the dignity of being an +exporter of manufactures to any considerable extent, the valuation of +her production from manufactures (_i.e._ value added in process of +manufacture) is some £180,000,000 a year. + +To sum up: in neutral markets of the Pacific (_i.e._ markets in which +the goods of all nations can compete on even terms) the Asiatic producer +(the Japanese and the Indian at present, the Chinese later) will be +formidable competitors in some lines, notably textiles. But the United +States should be the leading industrial Power. British competition for +Pacific markets will come not only from the Mother Country but from the +Dominions of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Neutral markets will, +however, tend to be absorbed in the spheres of influence of rival Powers +striving for markets as well as for territory. A position approaching +monopoly of the markets of the Pacific could only be reached as the +result of a campaign of arms. + +FOOTNOTES: + +[9] The Northern Territory has been the one part of Australia where +coloured labour has been obtainable in practically any quantity for +mining; yet it is the part of Australia where the experience of +mine-owners has been generally the most disastrous. In 1906 the +production amounted to £126,000; in the last four years, according to a +report just furnished by the Chief Warden (1911), it has got down to +£60,000 a year, and is now shrivelling so fast that the whole industry +is threatened. "The values of the properties worked in the past are not +accountable for this depressed condition," says the Chief Warden, "for +there is every reason for the belief that, if the mineral wealth here +were exploited, it would compare favourably with that of any of the +States; but the depression has been caused chiefly through the +pernicious system of mining that has been carried out in the past, and +the wasteful expenditure in most instances of the capital forthcoming +for development." + +[2] The Australian Labour organ, _The Worker_, boasted (Oct. 22, 1908): +"When the law was not sufficient to guard race purity, 'selfish' Labour +risked its life and liberty to go beyond the law, and to show, as was +shown at another time in California, that the White Race would not +tolerate Asiatic colonisation. The Chinese Exclusion Acts in various +states of Australia were thus the monuments, not of the politicians who +passed them into law, but of the courage of the workers who were +willing--as the Eureka miners were willing--to sacrifice everything in +the cause of a clean, free Australia." + + + + +CHAPTER XVII + +SOME STRATEGICAL CONSIDERATIONS + + +Soundly considered, any great strategical problem is a matter of: + +1. Naval and military strength; rarely exercised separately but usually +in combination. + +2. Disposition of fortified stations and of bases of supplies. + +3. The economic and political conditions of countries concerned. + +Such phrases as the "Blue-water School of Strategy" are either +misleading, inasmuch as they give an incorrect impression of the ideas +of the people described as belonging to such a school, wrongly +representing them as considering naval strength, and naval strength +alone, in a problem of attack and defence; or else they rightly describe +an altogether incorrect conception of strategy. It will be found on +examination of any great typical struggle between nations that all three +matters I have mentioned have usually entered into the final +determination of the issue; that superior military or naval force has +often been countered by superior disposition of fortresses, fitting +stations, and supply bases: that sometimes clear superiority both in +armaments and disposition of armaments has been countered by greater +financial and industrial resources and more resolute national character. + +On all questions of strategy the Napoleonic wars will provide leading +cases, for Napoleon brought to his campaigns the full range of +weapons--military, naval, political, economic; and his early victories +were won as much by the audaciously new reading he gave to the politics +of war as to his skill in military strategy and in tactics. It would be +a fascinating task to imagine a Napoleon setting his mind to a +consideration of the strategy of the Pacific with all its vast problems. +But since to give to "strategy" its properly wide definition would be to +deal again in this chapter with many matters already fully discussed, I +propose to touch upon it here in a much narrower sense, and suggest +certain of the more immediate strategical problems, particularly in +regard to the disposition of fortified stations and bases of supplies. + +A glance at the map will show that the British Empire has at the present +moment an enormous strategical superiority over any other Power in the +Pacific. That Empire is established on both flanks, in positions with +strong and safe harbours for fleets, and with great tracts of fertile +country for recruiting local military forces and providing garrisons. +(For the time being I put aside political limitations and consider only +military and naval possibilities unhampered by any restrictions.) On +the eastern flank of the Pacific Ocean is the Columbian province of +Canada provided with several fine harbours and allowing of the +construction of an ideal naval base behind the shelter of Vancouver +Island. The coastal waters and the coastal rivers alike make possible +great fisheries, and consequently are good nurseries for seamen. The +coastal territory has supplies of coal, of timber, of oil. The +hinterland is rich pastoral, agricultural, and mineral country capable +of carrying an enormous population and, therefore, of providing a great +army. + +Considered in relation to its neighbours in the Pacific, Canada is +strategically quite safe except as regards attack from one quarter--the +United States. A Russian attack upon Canada, for instance, would be +strategically hopeless (I presume some equality of force), since a +Russian Fleet would have to cross the Pacific and meet the Canadian +Fleet where the Canadians chose, or else batter a fortified coast with +the Canadian Fleet sheltering in some port on a flank waiting a chance +to attack. The same remark applies to an attack from Japan, from China, +or from a South American nation. As regards an attack from the United +States, the position, of course, is different. But even in that case the +strategical position of Canada would be at least not inferior to that of +the enemy (apart from superiority of numbers), since that enemy would be +liable to diverting attacks from Great Britain in the Atlantic and from +Australia and New Zealand in the Pacific (whose forces would, however, +have to subdue the Philippines and the Hawaiian Islands before they +could safely approach the North American coast). An attack by the United +States on Canada is, however, not within the bounds of present +probability, and need not be discussed. + +The very great importance of Canada to the British position in the +Pacific cannot, however, be too strongly impressed. Canada holds the +right flank of the Pacific Ocean, and that flank rests upon the main +British strength concentrated in the Atlantic. With the loss of Canada +British mastery in the Pacific would be impossible. To make the +strategical position of Western Canada (naturally very strong) secure +there is needed-- + +(a) A British Pacific Fleet strong enough to meet any enemy in the +ocean, and so stationed as to be capable of concentrating quickly either +at a base near Vancouver on the outbreak of hostilities, or in the rear +of any Fleet attacking the coast. + +(b) A greater population in Western Canada with an army (not necessarily +of Regulars) capable of defending Canadian territory against a landing +party. + +On the west flank of the Pacific Great Britain is established at +Wei-hai-wei, Hong Kong, the Straits Settlements, Borneo, New Guinea, +Australia, New Zealand, and various small islands. There are here +possibilities of enormous strength and several points of grave danger. + +At the outset let us consider the continental position of the British +Empire on the west flank of the Pacific. The occupation of India gives +to the British Power at once a great position and a great +responsibility. Occupation of India, presuming the loyalty of the +majority of the native inhabitants--a presumption which seems to become +more and more reasonable with the passage of time--gives great material +resources and command of a vast population of good fighting men. It is +admitted, however, that these native troops require a certain +"stiffening" of White troops before taking the field. To provide that +stiffening is the greatest single task of the British Regular army. +Strategically, the transfer from Great Britain to India of a large +number of soldiers to leaven the native forces is not an ideal system. +The distance between the source of supply and the field of operations is +so great that in peace it is necessary to have a larger force than would +be necessary if that distance were reduced, and in war the repairing of +wastage would be a matter of some difficulty. Further, the British +soldier, coming from a very different climate, suffers a great deal from +sickness in India. A more economical and effective system, if that were +found to be politically possible, would be to strengthen the White +garrison of India in part from Australia and New Zealand and South +Africa in case of war. + +The defence of India has to be considered in the light of-- + +(a) An attack from Japan or China based on a Pan-Asiatic movement. + +(b) Internal sedition. + +(c) An attack from Russia through Persia. + +(d) An attack from Germany allied with Turkey by way of the Persian +Gulf. + +The two former are the more immediate dangers. But on the whole, India +is a far greater source of strength than of weakness. She makes the +British Empire a great military power on the mainland of Asia, and she +can contribute materially to the strength of the Pacific naval forces. + +Passing from India we find the British Empire in possession of several +very important strategical positions on or near the coast of Asia, +Wei-hai-wei and Hong Kong being the advance stations in the north, and +Singapore (the favoured meeting-place of the Pacific squadron of the +British Navy) being a well-situated central point. A British Pacific +Fleet making Singapore its chief base would be in the best position to +dominate the western littoral of the ocean. South of Singapore the large +settlements (Australia and New Zealand) are friendly. From the north any +possible enemy would be best watched, best met, from a Singapore base. +That base would be central for aid from India and South Africa; and it +would also be the best point of departure for a Pacific Fleet finding it +necessary to rendezvous on the American flank of the ocean. + +This is a convenient point at which to call attention to one grave +strategical weakness of the British Empire position in the Pacific--the +lack of a fortified coaling station near to the centre of the ocean. +Between Hong Kong and Vancouver there is no fortified coaling station. +There are rumours, as I write, of the want being met by the +fortification of Fanning Island, at present the landing-place of the +Pacific cable between Vancouver and Norfolk Island. Fanning Island is +not an ideal station either by position or natural advantages. But it +would be better than nothing. + +The strategical position of Australia and New Zealand comes next for +consideration. Looking to the future, these British Dominions, which can +be grouped under the one title, Australasia, will probably form the most +important national element in the South Pacific. Considered at present, +Australia must be a source of the gravest anxiety strategically, for it +has within its vast, and everywhere insufficiently populated, area one +great tract, the Northern Territory, which is practically empty, and +which contains to-day twice as many Asiatics as Whites. Embracing +335,000,000 acres, the Northern Territory possesses several splendid +rivers, in the inland portion a great artesian water supply, and a wide +diversity of land and of climate. On the uplands is a warm, dry, +exhilarating area, not very rich in soil, but suitable for pastoral +occupation, and giving great promise of mineral wealth. On the lowlands, +with a climate which is sub-tropical to tropical, but, on account of the +wide spread of the gum tree, is practically nowhere dangerously +malarial, every agricultural industry is possible, from dairy-farming +and maize-growing to the cultivation of coffee, sugar, sago, hemp, and +spices. Almost every expert who has explored the Territory has been +struck with its possibilities. Mr Dashwood, the former Government +resident, considered the "area of land suitable for tropical agriculture +enormous." Mr Sydney Kidman, the great cattle breeder, reported on the +land about Herbert River as "ideal cattle country." A dozen other +authorities acclaim the pastoral possibilities of the uplands. The +probability of vast tin, copper and gold deposits is certified to by +every geological explorer. + +The Northern Territory thus offers a tempting prize for an Asiatic Power +seeking new outlets for its population. Yet, with all its advantages the +Territory remains empty. It is known that the Government of Great +Britain is profoundly anxious for its settlement. It is an open gate +through which an Asiatic invader may occupy Australia. It is an empty +land which we do not "effectively occupy," and therefore is, according +to the theories of international law, open to colonisation by some other +Power. + +Further, the Northern Territory is specially vulnerable, because an +enemy landing there could find horses, oxen, pasturage, timber, some +metals, a good soil, plenty of water, any number of easily defensible +harbours--in short, all the raw material of war. And to prevent a +landing there is nothing. The local White population is nil, +practically; the fortifications are nil; the chances of an Australian +force ever getting there to dislodge an enemy, nil. + +An ingenious Australian romance (_The Commonwealth Crisis_, by C. H. +Kirness), recently published, imagines a "colonising invasion" of +Australia by Japan. A certain Thomas Burt and his friend, while on a +hunting trip in the Northern Territory, observe the landing of bodies of +Japanese troops at Junction Bay. They ride to the south-west to bring +the news to Port Darwin, the small White settlement in the Territory. +For some years preceding Japan had contemplated a secret "peaceful +invasion" of the Northern Territory. The project was planned with great +care. First a huge military colony was organised at Formosa, and the men +trained in agriculture. Later, the men were supplied with wives. Three +months were allowed to elapse, and the men were transported secretly to +the Northern Territory. Quite 6000 "colonists" had been thus landed +before "White Australia" was able to take any action. Japan, when +concealment is no longer possible, officially states through its +Ambassador in London that, quite without authority from the Mikado, a +private colonising organisation had settled a body of Japanese in the +Northern Territory. The Mikado regretted this, and was willing that +these subjects should disavow their Japanese citizenship and swear +devotion to the British Flag. A deputation from the Japanese colony in +the Northern Territory then arrives at Port Darwin to offer its +allegiance, and to ask that schools should be established in the new +settlement. + +From that point the story develops to the downfall of "White Australia" +so far as all the north of the Continent is concerned. That romance was, +though in some of its details fantastic, in its main idea possible. It +was one of many efforts in warning. Such warnings seem to be taking +effect now, for the Commonwealth Government is moving at last to +colonise the Northern Territory, and to build a railway which will bring +it into touch with the more populous portions of the Continent. A +scientific expedition was sent recently to investigate the conditions of +the Territory as regards productiveness and health. The preliminary +report of that expedition (presented to the Australian Parliament +October 1911) was generally favourable. It enlarged on the great +capacity of the Territory for production, and was optimistic about the +climatic conditions: + +"Bearing in mind that the country was visited at the time of year when +the climate was most suitable for Europeans, the general health was +remarkably good. The families of the second generation examined showed +no signs of physical deterioration. There are none of the tropical +diseases, such as malaria and dysentery, endemic in the settlements; +and, as long as the necessary hygienic precautions are observed, there +is no reason to anticipate their appearance. + +"There are, at present, men who have spent from three to four decades in +the Territory, and every one of them compares favourably, both as +regards physique and energy, with men of similar ages elsewhere. + +"The healthiest and strongest are those, both men and women, who take +regular open-air exercises both in the relatively cool and in the hot +season. + +"Life in the back country, provided the ordinary precautions necessary +in tropical parts are taken, is decidedly healthy. The summer months are +undoubtedly trying, but the winter months, when at night-time the +temperature falls below 40 degrees F., afford recuperation from the +excessive damp heat of the summer. In addition, the open-air life is in +itself a great safeguard against enervation and physical deterioration." + +That bears out the views of those who are in the best position to know +the Northern Territory of Australia. Clearly, there are no obstacles to +its White settlement except such as arise from the apathy and +carelessness of the governments concerned. But with the strategical +question of populating the Northern Territory is bound up the other idea +of populating Australia itself. In 1904, the Government of New South +Wales, one of the Australian states, alarmed by the fall of the +birth-rate, appointed a Royal Commission to inquire into the cause. One +thing made clear by the investigations of the Commission was "that a +very large section of the population keeps down the birth-rate so far +as it can, and that the limit of birth-suppression is defined by the +limit of knowledge on the subject." That was practically the main +conclusion in the Commissioners' report. It probably did not need a +Commission of Inquiry to tell the social observer of Australia so much. +That the decreasing birth-rate in the Commonwealth was not primarily due +to any physical degeneracy of the people, had long been the conviction +of all who had had the opportunity and the desire to make the most +cursory inquiry into the subject. Not lack of capacity, but lack of +willingness to undertake parental responsibility, was the cause of the +Australian movement towards sterility. Coming to a conclusion as to +"why" was thus an easy task in investigating the dwindling birth-rate. +It was quite clear that the Australian cradle did not fill, mainly +because the Australian parent preferred to have a very small family. + +The evil--it is an evil, for there could be no better, no more welcome +immigrants to any country than those coming on the wings of the +stork--does not affect Australia alone, but is observable in almost +every civilised country. It has successfully defied one of the strongest +of natural sentiments. Every sane adult is by instinct desirous of being +a parent. But instinct seems to weaken with civilisation and its +accompanying artificiality of life. If, on an essentially vital point, +it is to become so weak as to be ineffective, and is to be replaced by +no ethical or other motive working towards the same end, then +civilisation will involve extinction. That is the melancholy conclusion +which some pessimists even now come to, pointing to the fact that the +White races of the earth, as a whole, despite the still prolific Slav +and German, show a tendency to dwindle. + +Alarm at such a conclusion may yet prove in itself a remedy. Already +there is a general agreement that for the community's good it is well +that there should be a higher birth-rate, but, so far, the general +agreement lacks particular application. With a further recognition of +the fate to which artificially-secured sterility points, there may be an +acuter alarm, which will convert the individual not only to good belief, +but to good practice. What is wanted is a generally accepted conviction +that childlessness is either unfortunate or disgraceful, and that +anything but a moderately large family is a condition calling for +apology. In Australia that is particularly wanted. There are there--in a +new country with plenty of room for many millions yet--none of the +excuses which can be held to justify "small families" in more thickly +populated lands. It is satisfactory to note that since the Birth-rate +Commission aroused the public mind on the subject in Australia, there +has been a distinct betterment of the birth-rate; and there has been an +end to the old objection to immigration. "Empty Australia" is filling up +somewhat more rapidly now; but the process is still far too slow, from +the point of view of strategical safety. + +With Australia, including the Northern Territory, populated and +defended, the strategical position of the British Empire on the Asiatic +flank of the Pacific Ocean could be organised on a sound basis. An +Imperial Fleet, contributed to by the Mother Country, by Australia, New +Zealand, South Africa, India, and the Crown Colonies, having a rallying +point at Singapore, could hold the Indian Ocean (which is to the Pacific +what the Mediterranean is to the Atlantic) as a "British lake," and this +powerful naval force would straddle the centre of the western littoral +of the ocean, keeping secure the British communities in the south from +the Asiatic communities in the north, and ready to respond to a call +from Canada. On the western, as on the eastern flank, there is present +all the "raw material" for Fleets and armies--great supplies of coal, +oil, timber, metals, fecund fishing grounds, and enormous areas of +agricultural and pastoral territory. + +When the strategical position of the United States in the Pacific comes +to be examined, it is found to be for the moment one full of anxiety. +The Power which may, five years hence, have undisputed hegemony of the +ocean, holds a difficult position there to-day. The map will show that +if the United States had had no expansion ideas at all, in the Pacific +or elsewhere, national safety demanded that she should stretch out her +arm to take in the Hawaiian Islands. This group, if held by an enemy, +would be as a sword pointed to the heart of the Pacific States of the +Republic: but held by the United States it is a buckler against any +enemy from south or west. A foe approaching the United States Pacific +coast would inevitably seek to occupy first the Hawaiian Islands and use +them as a base: and just as surely would not dare to pass those islands +leaving there an American Fleet. With Honolulu Harbour strongly +fortified and sheltering a Fleet of any real fighting strength, the +Pacific coast of the United States is safe from invasion by sea +(invasion by land from Canada hardly needs to be considered; nor from +Mexico). At the present time Honolulu is in the process of being +fortified rather than is fortified: and a powerful American Fleet awaits +the completion of the Panama Canal before it can enter the Pacific +without leaving the Atlantic coast of the Republic unduly exposed. + +The Philippine Islands, too, are a source of anxiety rather than of +strength at present. When the Panama Canal has been completed and +Honolulu fortified, and the Philippines mark the terminal point of an +American Fleet patrol, their strategical weight will count in the other +scale, for they will then give the American Power a strong vedette post +in the waters of a possible enemy. Any attack from the Pacific on the +United States would in prudence have to be preceded by the reduction of +the Philippines, or at least their close investment. Yet the temporary +loss of the group would inflict no great disadvantage on the American +plan of campaign. Thus the enemy could not afford to leave the +Philippines alone, and yet would gain no decisive advantage from the +sacrifices necessary to secure them. In the case of a war in which the +United States was acting on the offensive against an Asiatic Power, the +Philippines would be of great value as an advanced base. + +The ultimate strategical position of the United States in the Pacific +cannot be forecasted until there is a clearer indication of how far she +proposes to carry a policy of overseas expansion. But in the near future +it can be seen that she will keep on the high seas one great Fleet, its +central rallying point being probably Cuba, with the Galapagos Islands, +San Francisco, Honolulu and Manila as the Pacific bases. At present the +Galapagos belong to Ecuador, and Ecuador does not seem disposed to +"lease" them to the United States. But that difficulty will probably be +overcome, since the United States must have an advance guard to protect +the Panama Canal on the Pacific as well as on the Atlantic side. Viewed +from a purely defensive standpoint, such a strategical position is sound +and courageous. If offensive action is contemplated, on the Asiatic +mainland for example, a military force far greater than that existing +to-day in the United States must be created. + +Japan has consolidated a sound strategical position by the annexation of +Corea, Russian naval power having ceased to exist in the Pacific. Japan +now holds the Sea of Japan as her own Narrow Water. The possibility of a +hostile China making a sea attack can be viewed without dread, for +naturally and artificially the Japanese naval position is very strong. +Holding the Sea of Japan as securely as she does, Japan may also +consider that her land frontier on the mainland is more accessible to +her bases than to the bases of any possible enemy. + +Russia has been harshly criticised for the conception of naval strategy +which gave her one Fleet in the Baltic, another in the Black Sea, and a +third in the Pacific. But she was forced by her geographical position +into a "straggle" policy. It is extremely unlikely that she will now +adopt the policy, recommended to her in some quarters, of concentrating +naval strength in the Pacific: though, should the _Entente_ with Great +Britain develop into an actual triple alliance between Great Britain, +France and Russia, that concentration is just possible. It would have an +important effect on the strategical position in the Pacific: but is too +unlikely a contingency to call for any discussion. The same may be said +in regard to any possibility of a great development of power in the +Pacific by Germany or France. + +The interest of the strategical position in the Pacific thus centres in +the rivalry, or friendly emulation, between the United States and the +British Empire. Without any very clear indications of a conscious +purpose, the British Empire has blundered into a strategical position +which is rich in possibilities of strength and has but two glaring +weaknesses, the absence of a Mid-Pacific fortress and the emptiness of +the Northern Territory of Australia. With a very clear idea of what she +is about, the United States has prepared for a thoroughly scientific +siege of the Pacific, but she has not the same wealth of natural +material as has the British Empire. + + + + +CHAPTER XVIII + +THE RIVALS + + +The essential superiority of a White Race over a Coloured Race may +fairly be accepted as a "first principle" in any discussion of world +politics. There are numberless facts to be gathered from 2500 years of +history to justify that faith, and there is lacking as yet any great +body of evidence to support the other idea, that modern conditions of +warfare and of industry at last have so changed the factors in human +greatness that mere numbers and imitative faculty can outweigh the +superior intellectual capacity and originating genius characteristic of +the European peoples. Nevertheless it must be admitted that the +conditions, in warfare and in industry, of life to-day as compared with +life in past centuries, have increased the value of numbers and of a +faculty of blind obedience, and have proportionately decreased the +relative value of individual character. An Asiatic army to-day is +relatively better fitted to cope with a European army; an Asiatic +factory is relatively more efficient. + +It is necessary, therefore, to call to aid all the reassuring records of +history if one would keep a serene faith that the future of the Pacific, +and with it the future of the world, is not destined to be dominated by +the Asiatic rather than by the European. Japan with her fertile people +and sterile soil has done so much since she discovered that the test +imposed on a people by Christian civilisation is based on their powers +of destruction, that there is good reason for the alarm expressed by +many thinkers (with the German Emperor as their leader) as to "the +Yellow Peril." China, too, awaking now after the slumber of centuries +and grasping at the full equipment of a modern nation, reinforces that +alarm. It is conceivable that White civilisation may be for a while +worsted and driven from some of its strongholds by the arms which it has +taught the Coloured Races to use. "Asia for the Asiatics," may be a +battle-cry raised in the future not without avail. But in time European +superiority must again assert itself. + +There are many pessimists who foretell the doom of the White Races +coming from a sterility self-imposed for the sake of better ease. They +see in every advance of comfort a cause of further weakness, and they +picture luxury as rapidly corroding the supports of our society. But it +is comforting to recall that every age has had the same gloomy critics, +and the Golden Age has always been represented in the past by the +pessimists of the present. For myself, I am daring enough to think that +the White Races of to-day are neither enervated nor decadent: that in +physique, in good health and in sense of public duty they are improving +rather than deteriorating; and that the Europe of next century will be +more happy, more vigorous and more sane than the Europe of to-day. There +_was_ a time for the joy of pessimists, but it is a past time, that +dismal past century when the industrial epoch rushed on man all +unawares, when the clattering machine came to sweep away handicrafts, +and the new economic idea of human beings as "hands" affected +poisonously all social relations. It was as though a cumbrous wain, +well-built for its slow and sedate rumbling, had suddenly been hitched +to a rushing steam engine. There were disturbances, clatterings, +groanings, and creakings. The period of adjustment was a painful one. +But it is passing. Meliorism is the justifiable faith of the future. + +The future of the Pacific, I hold then, is with the White Races. At the +best, the Asiatic can hope to hold his own continent in security. Japan +had the chance of securing a temporary dominance after the war with +Russia, and at one time was said to have been on the verge of a struggle +with the United States, as an assertion of that dominance. But the cloud +passed over. With the opening of the Panama Canal, now a matter only of +months, the opportunity of Japan will have finally passed. With the +gradual re-establishment of British naval power in the ocean, a +re-establishment which will come through the agency of Australia, +Canada, and New Zealand, if not through the Home Country, and which will +be "anti-Asiatic" in purpose, a further veto will be put on any +aggressive ambitions on the part of an Asiatic Power. The statesmen of +Japan, indeed, seem to recognise that she has had her day of greatest +power, and must be content for the future to be tolerated in her present +position as one of the "Powers" forming the great council of the +foremost nations. But in considering Japan, allowance must always be +made for the danger of the people getting out of the hands of the +oligarchy which rules them. The Japanese people, fed fat on praise of +their own prowess, may one day force a mad course on statesmen asked to +choose between civil and foreign war. Such a war would be doomed to +failure for financial if for no other reasons. But it might leave a deep +stain of blood on the Pacific. + +China--a Federal Republic, and rid of the Manchus if present appearances +(1912) are not belied--will have no aggressive ambitions for some years +to come. She may insist, and rightly insist, on more honourable +treatment from foreign nations. But it is not likely that she will set +Fleets ranging over the Pacific in search of conquests. By the time that +China has come to a warlike mood--if she does ever come--the White Races +will be fully equipped for any struggle. The greatest Asiatic peril, so +far as warlike forces are concerned, is of a Japanese-Chinese alliance: +and the chance of that is slight, for the two peoples are not +sympathetic. It will be noted that the very first official paper of the +nascent Chinese Republic is a letter of complaint to the Japanese +Government. + +If it is agreed that the Pacific will fall, as the Mediterranean did, as +the Atlantic did, to the rule of the White Man, the next step is to +consider, which people? There is, in addition to much evidence, the +temptation of race-pride to suggest that of all the European peoples the +Anglo-Celtic (controlling the British Empire and the United States) is +inherently the best equipped for world dominance. But that is not nearly +so sure as is the superiority of the White over the Coloured Races. The +Latin peoples--Italians, Portuguese, Spaniards--have in their day won to +lofty greatness. The French--in the main Latin, but with a large element +of Celtic and some element of Teutonic blood--were supreme in the world +for many generations, and are not exhausted to-day. There is not an +incident of Anglo-Saxon history; either of fighting against tremendous +odds and winning a victory which the stars in their courses seemed to +forbid; or of making disaster glorious by a Spartan death; or of pushing +out on some frail plank into an unknown sea--which cannot be matched by +some incident equally noble from the records of the Latin peoples or the +French people. The Teutons are only now making their bid for mastery: +the Slavs may have a great future. The future dominance of Europe may be +for any one of the European peoples. + +But the position in the Pacific can be simplified for the present by +the elimination of all the European Powers but two. Spain and Portugal +have had their day there, and have passed away. Neither France, Germany, +Austria nor Italy can venture any great force from Europe. Nor is any +one of them strongly established in the Pacific. Great Britain would be +content with the Atlantic but that her overseas Empire gives her duties +and advantages in the new ocean. The Pacific possessions of the British +Empire were unsought. But they will be held. The other European Power in +the Pacific is Russia, which has been checked but not destroyed there. +That the supremacy of Europe--at present held, so far as any enterprises +beyond its seas are concerned, by Great Britain--may pass to other hands +is not impossible; and that would affect, of course, the position in the +Pacific. Speculation on that point, however, is outside the scope of +this book, which has attempted to deal with the Pacific conditions of +the present and immediate future. + +On the facts there must be a further elimination of European Powers in +the Pacific, since Russia has no naval forces there and no design of +creating such forces. There is at present a natural bewilderment in the +Russian mind as a consequence of the recent war with Japan. That +struggle destroyed her power in Europe as well as in Asia, and the +European balance must be restored first. During the next five +years--which will be the critical years--Russia will not count in the +Pacific except as the useful ally of some powerful naval nation--either +of Japan, the United States or Great Britain. + +Great Britain is thus left as the sole European Power capable of +independent effort in the Pacific. Clearly the rivalry for the dominance +of the ocean lies between her and the United States. To discuss that +rivalry is to discuss the real problem of the Pacific. It may be done +frankly, I trust, without raising suggestions of unfriendliness. A frank +discussion of the problem, carried out on both sides of the Atlantic, +would be of the greatest value to civilisation. For the position seems +to be that both Powers are preparing to capture the Pacific; that +neither Power can hold it against the other; and that a peaceful +settlement can only be founded on complete mutual understanding. + +It is true that if the United States decides "to play a lone hand," she +may win through if all the circumstances are favourable, for she seems +destined to control the resources of all America. It is likely that +within this decade the United States Flag will fly (either as that of +the actually governing or the suzerain Power) over all the territory +south of the Canadian border to the southern bank of the Panama Canal. +Intervention has been threatened once already in Mexico. With any +further disorder it may be carried into effect. The United States cannot +afford to allow the chance of a disorderly force marching down to +destroy £70,000,000 worth of United States property. Central America +has been marked down for a process of peaceful absorption. The treaty +with Honduras (a similar one exists with Nicaragua) shows the method of +this absorption. It provides: + +"The Government of Honduras undertakes to make and negotiate a contract +providing for the refunding of its present internal and external debt +and the adjustment and settlement of unliquidated claims for the placing +of its finances upon a sound and stable basis, and for the future +development of the natural and economic resources of that country. The +Governments of the United States and Honduras will take due note of all +the provisions of the said contract when made, and will consult, in +order that all the benefits to Honduras and the security of the loan may +at the same time be assured. + +"The loan, which shall be made pursuant to the above undertaking, shall +be secured upon the customs of Honduras, and the Government of Honduras +agrees not to alter the import or export Customs duties, or other +charges affecting the entry, exit, or transit of goods, during the +existence of the loan under the said contract, without consultation and +agreement with the Government of the United States. + +"A full and detailed statement of the operations under this contract +shall be submitted by the fiscal agent of the loan to the Department of +State of the United States and to the Minister of Finance of the +Government of Honduras at the expiration of each twelve months, and at +such other times as may be requested by either of the two Governments. + +"The Government of Honduras, so long as the loan exists, will appoint +from a list of names to be presented to it by the fiscal agent of the +loan and approved by the President of the United States of America, a +collector-general of Customs, who shall administer the Customs in +accordance with the contract securing said loan, and will give this +official full protection in the exercise of his functions. The +Government of the United States will in turn afford such protection as +it may find necessary." + +Under the terms of these loan conventions the independence of Honduras +and Nicaragua dwindles to nothing. The purpose of the arrangements was +stated by Mr President Taft in his message to Congress: "Now that the +linking of the oceans by the Isthmian Canal is nearing assured +realisation, the conservation of stable conditions in the adjacent +countries becomes a still more pressing need, and all that the United +States has hitherto done in that direction is amply justified, if there +were no other consideration, by the one fact that this country has +acquired such vast interest in that quarter as to demand every effort on +its part to make solid and durable the tranquillity of the neighbouring +countries." + +"Solid and durable tranquillity" means in effect United States control. +From the control of Central America to that of South America is a big +step, but not an impossible one; and the United States already claims +some form of suzerainty over the Latin-American peoples there. It +insists upon giving them protection against Europe, whether they wish it +or not, and under certain circumstances would exercise a right of veto +over their foreign policy. The United States also is engaged in +promoting through the Pan-American Bureau a policy of American +continental unity. This Bureau was the outcome of the Pan-American +Conference convened by Mr Blaine in 1890. The general object of the +Bureau "is not only to develop friendship, commerce, and trade, but to +promote close relations, better acquaintance, and more intimate +association along economic, intellectual, educational and social lines, +as well as political and material lines, among the American Republics." +"The Bureau for commercial purposes," its Director, Mr Barrett, reports, +"is in touch in both North and South America, on the one hand with +manufacturers, merchants, exporters, and importers, doing all it can to +facilitate the exchange and building up of trade among the American +nations, and on the other hand with University and College Presidents, +professors, and students, writers, newspaper men, scientists, and +travellers, providing them with a large variety of information that will +increase their interests in the different American nations." The Bureau +publishes handbooks and reports on the various countries containing +information relating to their commercial development and tariffs. + +There will be held this year (1912) at Washington a Pan-American +Conference on trade, organised by the Bureau, "to awaken the commercial +organisations, representative business men, and the general public of +both North and South America to an appreciation of the possibilities of +Pan-American commerce, and the necessity of preparing for the opening of +the Panama Canal." "The Conference," says the official announcement, +"will have a novel feature in that it will consider the exchange of +trade--imports as well as exports--and the opportunities not only of the +United States to extend the sale of her products in Latin America, but +of Latin America to sell her products in the United States, for only +upon the basis of reciprocal exchange of trade can a permanent large +commerce and lasting good relations be built up between the United +States and her twenty sister American Republics. Heretofore all +discussions and meetings have considered only the export field, with a +corresponding unfortunate effect on public opinion in Latin America, and +her attitude towards the efforts of the United States to increase her +commerce with that important part of the world. Another special feature +will be a careful consideration, from the standpoint of the business +interests of all the American countries interested in the Panama Canal, +of what should be done to get ready for greater exchange of trade +through that waterway, and to gain practical advantages to their +commerce from the day it is opened." + +The policy of Pan-America may one day come into effect, and the United +States Power command the resources of all America except Canada. (That +Canada will ever willingly come under her suzerainty seems now little +likely.) But from Cape Horn to the Gulf of St Lawrence is an Empire of +mighty resources, great enough to sate the ambition of any Power, but +yet not forbidding the ambition to make it the base for further +conquests. + +Yet, withal, the United States cannot rely confidently on an unchecked +career of prosperity. She may have her troubles. Indeed, she has her +troubles. No American of to-day professes to know a solution of the +negro problem. "There are two ways out of the difficulty," said one +American grimly; "to kill all the negroes, and to deport all the +negroes; and neither is humanly possible." To allow them to be absorbed +by intermarriage with the White population is unthinkable, and would, in +a generation or two, drag the United States down to the level of a +larger Hayti. A settlement of the black question will one day, sooner or +later, absorb the American mind for some time to the exclusion of all +else. Neither the acquisition of territories with great coloured +populations, nor the extension of suzerainty over half-breed countries +will do anything to simplify that problem. + +There is also a possible social difficulty to be faced by the United +States. The present differences between rich and poor are too extreme to +be safe. Too many of the rich despise the poor on the ground that to be +poor is to be a failure: too many of the poor hate the rich with a +wolfish hatred as successful bandits. The quick growth of material +prosperity has cloaked over this class feeling. When there were good +crumbs for everybody the too-great wealth of the rich was not so +obvious. But the time comes when the United States is no longer a Tom +Tiddler's ground where everybody can pick up something: and the rivalry +between those who have too much and those who have too little begins to +show nakedly. + +In short, the United States, justified as she is to keep a superb +confidence in her own resources, might find a policy of hostile rivalry +to the British Power in the Pacific an impossible one to carry through, +for it would not be wise statesmanship on her part to presume that her +future history will be, at home and abroad, an uninterrupted course of +prosperity. + +There is no need to presume that hostile rivalry. On the other hand, +there is no wisdom in following blindly a policy of drift which may lead +to that rivalry. The question of the future of the Pacific narrows down +to this: Will two great Powers, sprung from the same race, take +advantage of a common tongue to talk out frankly, honestly, their aims +and purpose so that they may arrive at a common understanding? + +There are some obstacles to such an understanding. The first is American +diplomacy, which, whilst truthful to the point of brusqueness, is +strangely reluctant to avow its real objects, for the reason, I think, +that it often acts without admitting even its own mind into confidence. +The boy who makes his way to the unguarded apple orchard does not admit +to himself that he is after apples. He professes to like the scenery in +that direction. American diplomacy acts in the same way. It would have +been impossible, for instance, to have obtained from the American +Government ten years ago a confidential declaration, in a friendly way, +of the Pacific policy which is now announced. Yet it should have been +quite plain to the American mind after the seizure of the Philippines +and the fortification of Hawaii, if the American mind would have +consented to examine into itself. Now, it is not possible for two great +nations to preserve a mutual friendship without a mutual confidence. + +Another obstacle to a perfect British-American understanding is that +British diplomacy is always at its worst in dealing with the United +States. That combination of firmness with politeness which is used in +European relations is abandoned for a policy of gush when dealing with +America. Claims for a particular consideration founded on relationship +are made which are sometimes a little resented, sometimes a little +ridiculed. British diplomats do not "keep their dignity" well in +negotiating with the United States. They are so obsessed with the +feeling that to drift into bad terms with the great English-speaking +Republic would be calamitous, that they give a suspicion sometimes of +truckling. There would be a better feeling if relationship were not so +much insisted upon and reliance were placed instead on a mutual respect +for power and on a community of purpose in most quarters of the globe. +Meekness does not sit well on the British manner, and often the +American's view of "relationship talk" is that it is intended as a +prelude to inducing him into a bad bargain. + +It should always be the aim of the leaders of American and British +public opinion to encourage friendship between the two nations. But it +is not wise to be for ever insisting that, because of their blood +relationship, a serious quarrel between them is impossible. True, a +struggle between Great Britain and the United States would have all the +horrors of a civil war, but even civil wars happen; and it is human +nature that relatives should sometimes let bickering, not intended at +the outset to be serious, drift into open rupture. The sentimental talk +founded, as it were, on the idea that the United States and Great +Britain are married and must hold together "for better or for worse," is +dangerous. + +When Pacific questions come up for discussion in the near future, there +is likely, however, to be a modification in the old British methods of +diplomacy, for the Dominions of Canada, Australia and New Zealand must +be allowed to take part in the discussions; and Australia and New +Zealand have a certain impatient Imperialism on which I have remarked +before. Their attitude in foreign affairs appears as almost truculent to +European ideas of diplomacy. Probably Canada will show the same spirit, +for it is the spirit of youth in nationhood, with its superb +self-confidence still lacking the sobering effects of experience. + +It is a mistaken idea, though an idea generally held in some quarters, +that the British Dominions in the Pacific are more sympathetic with +American than with British ideas. The contrary is the case. Where there +are points of difference between the Anglo-Celtic race in Great Britain +and in the United States, the British Dominions lean to their Mother +Country. Their progressive democracy is better satisfied with the +conditions under the shadow of a Throne, which has nothing of tyranny +and little of privilege, than with those offering under a Republic whose +freedom is tempered a good deal with plutocratic influences. "To be +exactly opposite to everything which is known as 'American'--that is the +ideal of Australian democracy," said a responsible statesman of the +Commonwealth. The statement was put strongly so as to arrest attention; +but it contained a germ of truth. In spite of the theoretical +Republicanism of a majority of the Australian people, their practical +decisions would almost always favour the British rather than the +American political system. + +The fervid welcome recently given in the Pacific to the Fleet of +American battleships which circumnavigated the world, gave rise to some +misconceptions. American press correspondents with the Fleet generally +formed the idea that Australia in particular was ready to fall into the +arms of the United States at the first advance. But that welcome was in +part simply the expression of a warm feeling of hospitality for visitors +of a kindred race. For the rest, it was an expression of gratitude for +the reassurance which the American Fleet gave that a White Race was +determined to be a Power in the Pacific. Great Britain had just renewed +her treaty with Japan, which had defeated Russia, and this treaty left +the Japanese Fleet as the guardian of the British interests in the +ocean. To the Australian mind such guardianship was worse than useless. +If it were ever a question between accepting the guardianship of the +United States--with all its implied obligations--and modifying their +anti-Asiatic policy, Australia, Canada and New Zealand would, without a +doubt, accept the first alternative. But they would very much prefer +that the British Power should be the guardian of their safety, +especially a British Power largely supplied and controlled by +themselves. + +It is towards that development that events now move. It has its danger +in that there may be a growing brusqueness in British negotiations in +the Pacific. The Dominions of Canada, Australia and New Zealand (I +include Canada because all the indications are that she will now fall +into line with the other Pacific British nations), paying so much to the +piper, will want to call the tune: and whereas British diplomacy with +the United States is to-day a shade too deferential, Australasian and +Canadian diplomacy possibly will fall into the other error. Experience, +of course, will cure the impatience of youth in time. But it is +important that at the outset there should be no occasions for bad +feeling. A friendly informal conference between Great Britain, the +United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, ushering in the +opening of the Panama Canal, would provide an opportunity for beginning +the frank discussion which is needed. + +The position in the Pacific confronting such a conference would be this: +that friendly co-operation between the United States and Great Britain +would give to the Anglo-Saxon race the mastery of the world's greatest +ocean, laying for ever the fear of the Yellow Peril, securing for the +world that its greatest readjustment of the balance of power shall be +effected in peace: but that rivalry between these two kindred nations +may cause the gravest evils, and possibly irreparable disasters. + + +THE END + + + + +INDEX + + + Acadia (_see_ Nova Scotia). + + Adriatic, the, 41. + + Ainus, the, 35, 138. + + Albuquerque takes Malacca, 96. + + Alexander the Great, 21, 103. + + Alliance between Great Britain and Japan, 39, 42, 199 _et seq._ + + Amber, the Arabian search for, 22. + + America: a "New France" in, 165. + + American bureau, the, 272, 273. + conferences, 272, 273. + diplomacy, 224, 275, 276. + --educated Chinese, 53, 54. + Empire, growth of, 69. + Imperial system, an, 12, 161, 164. + Imperialism and the Filipinos, 82. + national temper, the, 67. + naval bases, 224. + "relationship talk," 277. + War of Independence, the, 86. + + Andes, the, 151. + + Anglo-Celtic alliance, an, 14, 15. + race and the British Dominions, 278. + race best equipped for world dominance, 267. + + Anglo-Saxon, the Elizabethan, 69, 148. + + Anson, Admiral, 91. + + Apia Harbour, Samoa, 215. + + Arabians search for amber, 22. + + Arabs and the Baltic, 22. + + Argentine Republic, the, 150, 160, 162. + army of, 197. + navy of, 183. + + Armies of the Pacific: + Argentine, 197. + Australian, 191. + Bolivian, 197. + Brazilian, 197. + British, 191. + Canadian, 191. + Chinese, 190. + Colombian, 198. + Ecuador, 198. + Indian, 191. + Japanese, 189. + Mexican, 197. + New Zealand, 191. + Paraguay, 198. + Russian, 186, 187. + South American, 198. + United States, 190. + + Aryans, the, 21. + + _Asahi Shimbun_, the, 46. + + Asia, arrogance of, 40. + for the Asiatics, 241, 264. + + Asiatic colonisation, White fear of, 231. + immigration, 234. + labour, 228. + labour, cheapness exaggerated, 237. + peril, the greatest, 266. + populations, natural checks, 58. + European influence on, 59. + trade competition, 235, 236, 237. + + Asiatics as navvies and dock-labourers, 239. + preventive medicine and, 59. + cannot compete with Europeans, 239. + + Atlantic, the, and the White Man, 267. + German power in, 212. + + Australasia, 100. + + Australasia and the White Race, 101. + + Australasian Empire, an, 126. + + Australia, 3, 11, 13, 21, 93, 94, 109, 248, 250, 265, 277. + a "colonising invasion" of, by Japan, 253. + and Imperial naval co-operation, 116. + annexed by Capt. Cook, 94-95, 101, 123. + anti-Asiatic policy of, 106, 279. + army of, 191. + Chinese poll-tax in, 234. + coloured labour in the mines, 238 (footnote). + Defence Act, the, 109. + early settlers, 102. + first Fleet sails for, 95. + food production possibilities of, 119. + impatient Imperialism of, 277. + Imperialism of, 110. + in 1901 prohibits coloured immigration, 202. + keeping the Asiatic out of, 106. + laws against Asiatic immigration, 234. + Military College of, 192, 193. + official conditions, 193. + cadets, 193. + gambling and cigarette-smoking prohibited, 194. + nation-building material, 105. + Northern Territory of, 138, 238 (footnote), 251, 252, 253, 254, 262. + populating, 255. + potentially the greatest asset of the British race, 118. + prayers for rain, 106. + prolific, 102. + strategical position of, 251. + universal training for military service, 108. + unvisited by Asiatics in the early days of the Pacific, 58. + William Dampier in, 104. + + Australian aboriginal race, the, 137, 138. + birth-rate, 256, 257. + Bushman, the, 121. + as material for a great warrior nation, 122. + colonists aggressively Imperial, 95. + democracy, ideal of, 278. + Education Test, 203, 234. + Fleet unit, the, 113 _et seq._ + Pacific Fleet, the, 181. + sternly resolute, 106. + + Australians, warlike spirit of, 108. + aggressive patriotism of, 117. + + Aztecs, the, 156. + + + "Balance of power," 17. + + Balboa of Castile, 2, 153. + + Baltic, the, 22. + + Banana tree, the, 145. + + Barbary States, U.S.A., war with, 70, 72. + + Barrett, Mr, 272. + + Bible, the, 148. + + Bingham, Hiram, at Honolulu, 77. + + Blaine, Mr, 272. + + "Blue-water School of Strategy," 245. + + Boccaccio's story of a Christian, 53. + + Bolivia, 151, 160. + army of, 197. + + Bombay, rats in, 61. + + Borneo, 248. + + Boston, 77. + + Botany Bay, 104. + + Boxer outbreak of 1900, the, 50, 59. + + Brazil, army of, 197. + Republic of, 160, 162. + + Britain, military forces, 191. + Roman invasion of, 87. + + British Admiralty and Imperial naval co-operation, 112. + and Japanese, analogy between, 35. + Columbia and Asiatic immigration, 45, 234. + Continent in the Pacific, the, 100 _et seq._ + diplomacy in Pacific, 276, 279. + modification of, in the future, 277. + Dominions, their loyalty to the Mother Country, 277. + Empire, one grave strategical weakness, 251. + foundation of, 76. + strategical position of, 258. + the possibilities of, 129. + White population of, 129. + Flag in the South Pacific, the 135. + foreign policy, 17. + garrisons in India, 191. + Government recognise Maoris as a nation, 125. + Imperial expansion, 17. + intentions on Tibet, 211. + --Japanese Alliance, renewal of, 208. + Trade Treaty, right of British overseas Dominions regarding Japanese + immigration, 207. + Treaties: of 1902, 199. + of 1905, 204, 209. + of 1911, 199, 206, 207-208. + Treaty, the, 279. + provisions of, 199-201, 204-206. + War against United States, contingency abolished, 208. + maritime intercourse with Russia, 214. + naval power in the Pacific, re-establishment of, 265. + Navy: effective tonnage, 185. + Pacific Fleet, a, 181. + Pacific naval strength, 14. + people, the, Empire-making of, 87. + people, the racial origin of, 87. + --Russian Alliance not impossible, 213. + trade with Latin America, 162, 163. + treaty with Holland, 96. + + Britons, Romanised, 88. + + "Brown Bess" musket, the, 197. + + "Bush," the, in Australia, 121. + in New Zealand, 120. + + Byzantine culture and the Southern Slavs, 22. + Empire, the Greek Church and the, 23. + + Byzantium and the Normans, 22. + + + California, annexation of, 73. + Japanese in, 45. + + Canada, 2, 11, 13, 259, 265, 277. + and the Japanese immigrants, 202. + and the Pacific, 165 _et seq._ + anti-Asiatic policy of, 279. + French in, 165, 167, 168. + importance of, to British position in the Pacific, 248. + landing fees on Chinese, 234. + militia forces of, 191, 194. + naval plans, 183. + organisation of militia, 195. + originally a French colony, 165. + policy of Colonel Hughes, Defence Minister, 174. + political tendencies, 170. + proposed Reciprocity Treaty with United States, 174. + race troubles in, 233. + religion of, 168. + rifle factory, 194. + strategical position of, 247. + the coastal waters of, 169. + the new spirit regarding Defence, 194. + universal military training and, 196. + water power of, 243. + + Canadian Defence League, The, 195. + feudal system, 167. + Fleet unit, Sir Wilfrid Laurier on, 172. + General Election of 1911, the, 171, 195. + militia, the, 171. + naval policy, 172. + Pacific provinces and Japanese immigration, 202 (and footnote). + Provinces, federation of, 73. + protests against, 73, 74. + railways and Chinese labour, 233. + + Cannibalism, 140. + + Canute, King, 213. + + Carausius, 88. + + Caribbean naval base for United States, 179. + Sea, Spanish power destroyed, 82. + the United States and the, 67. + + Cartier, Jacques, 166. + + Castile, the King of, 2. + + Catherine the Great, 189, 214. + + Caxamalco, Pizarro at, 153. + + Chagres, the, 219. + + Champlain, 166. + + Chang Chih-tung, 51, 52. + + Chili, 2, 10, 150, 151. + army of, 197. + navy of, 183. + Republic of, 160, 163. + + China, 3, 25, 266. + a new, 56. + ancestor worship in, 55. + and the German Emperor, 10. + and the teeming millions of Asia, 47. + and the White Race, 56. + army of, 190. + Chang Chih-tung's suggestions for reform, 51, 52. + Christian missionaries in, 50. + Confucianism in, 48, 49, 56 (footnote), 57. + deprived of Malthusian checks, 57, 65. + first European ambassadors to, 40. + infanticide in, 57. + Jesuit missionaries in, 50. + legendary history of, 48. + militancy in, 64. + Mohammedans in, 48. + nation-birth of, 8. + navy of, 178. + not a Power in world-politics generally, 34. + persecution of missionaries, 50. + population of, 8, 63. + Republic of, 54. + a united, 55. + Republicanism in, 54, 55. + Mr Kwei Chih on, 55 (footnote). + Revolution in, 8. + suggested alliance with France, 48. + Taoism in, 49. + territorial integrity of, 200, 201, 202, 204, 209, 210, 211. + the Manchu dynasty, 50, 55 (footnote). + the Ming dynasty, 50. + the Mongol dynasty, 49. + the power of, in the Pacific, 9. + the Reform movement in, 51 _et seq._ + + Chinaman, the, arrogance of, 48. + courage of the, 47. + superior to Japanese, 47. + + China's attitude regarding Pacific issues, 65. + indemnity to Japan, 26. + + Chinese ancestor worship, 55. + + Chinese, artistry of the, 34. + as agriculturists, 238. + as miners, 237. + contempt of, by Japanese, 56. + distaste for adventure, 57. + Grand Khan, the, 49. + exchanges greetings with Pope of Rome, 50. + hatred of the Japanese, 56. + immigration forbidden in United States, 235. + immigration, restrictions on, 64. + in the Malay Archipelago, 58. + in the United States, 53. + --Japanese alliance not likely, 56. + labour on Canadian railways, 233. + landing fees in Canada, 234. + national spirit of the, 51. + non-aggressive, 56. + parent races of, 49. + poll-tax in Australia, 234. + rights in the Malay Peninsula, 142. + Socialists, 49. + students visit Japan, 53. + war, the, 26. + + Christian missionaries in China, 50. + + _Chuen Hsueh Pien_, the Bible of Chinese moderate reformers, 52. + + Clayton-Bulwer treaty, the, 81. + + Colbert, the Minister of Louis XIV., 167. + + Colombia, army of, 198. + + Colombo, Capt. Macaulay on, 97. + + "Colossus of the North," the, 17, 25. + + Columbia, 163. + + Columbus, 104, 105. + + _Commonwealth Crisis, The_, 253. + + Commonwealth of Australia, birth-rate of, 256, 257. + + Confucianism in China, 48, 49, 56 (footnote), 57. + + Constantinople, Convention of, 221. + Russia in, 23. + the Turk in possession of, 41. + + Cook, Captain, 94, 101. + annexes Australia, 95, 123. + lands at Botany Bay, 104. + visits New Zealand, 123, 141. + + Corea, 5, 6. + and the Tartar invaders of Japan, 35. + annexed by Japan, 38, 42, 260. + independence of, 202. + Japan and, 64. + Japanese interests in, 205. + territorial integrity of, 25, 200, 202, 206. + + Cortes, 2, 3, 156. + + Cossacks, the, 187, 188. + the, and Siberia, 5. + + Courteen, Sir William, 104. + + Crimean War, the, 24. + + Cross and Crescent, 23. + + Cuba, 260. + conquered by Velasquez, 156. + fate of, 155. + Guantanamo Bay, 179. + naval base at, 222. + Spain's misgovernment of, 82. + + Cushing, Mr Caleb, 81. + + _Cygnet_, the, 104. + + + Dale, Sir Thomas, 166. + + Dampier, William, visits Australia, 104. + + Darius and the Greeks, 40. + + Dashwood, Mr, 252. + + Declaration of Neutrality of 1893, American, 68. + + De Monts, 166. + + De Quiros, 104. + + De Torres, 104. + + Diaz, 2. + abdication of, 159. + and the Mexican revolutionaries, 158. + fall of, 158. + + Dickinson, Mr, United States Secretary for War, 172 (footnote). + + Drake, Sir Francis, 69, 91. + + "Dreadnought" types in 1912 and 1915, forecast of, 184. + + + Ecuador, 151, 161, 260. + army of, 198. + + Edward, Dr Hall, 229. + + Effective tonnage of the three greatest Naval Powers in 1912 and + 1915, 185. + + Egyptians' device for avoiding mosquitoes, 217. + + Elizabeth, Queen, 24. + + Elizabethan Englishman, the, 69, 148. + era, the, 90, 214. + + England, an ingenious speculation as to her climate on opening of Panama + Canal, 220. + Elizabethan, the spirit of, 76. + her sea-power, 89. + + English Channel, the, 87. + + Englishman, the Elizabethan, 69, 148. + + _Entente_ between Great Britain and Russia, 199. + + Europe prohibits Asiatic internecine warfare, 59. + + European ambassadors to China, the first, 40. + "balance of power," a, 17. + hegemony, the, 40. + relations with China, 49. + scientists and Asiatics, 59. + trade and missions in China, 50. + + + Fanning Island, 251. + + Fiji, 3. + Group acquired by Great Britain, 134. + Hindoo labourers in, 231. + + Fijian, a typical gardener, 143. + + Filipinos, the, 82. + + Finns, the, 21. + + Fisher, Mr, Prime Minister of Australia, 133. + + Fitz-Gerald, Mr James Edward, 126. + + Fleet unit, the Australian, 113 _et seq._ + + Formosa, 4. + ceded by China to Japan, 38. + + Fotheringham, Colonel, 196. + + France, 3, 10, 199. + and China, suggested alliance, 48. + Napoleon and, 18. + trade relations with Japan, 38. + + Fremantle, Dr Francis, 60. + + French Canada of to-day, 167. + under theocratic despotism, 167. + + French-Canadian priesthood, the, 168. + + French Canadians, 165, 168. + their national character, 168. + + French project for Panama Canal, 216. + Revolution, the, 124. + + French, the, 267. + + + Galapagos Islands, the, 222, 224, 260. + + Gatun Lake, area of, 218, 219. + + Gengis Khan, 22, 49. + + German navy: effective tonnage, 185. + power in the Atlantic, 212. + + Germans, the, in Kiao-Chau, 10. + + Germany, 3, 10. + a possible ally of Japan, 199. + a possible ally of United States, 199, 212. + + Gordon, General, 47. + + Grant, President, 74. + + Great Britain a Free Trade country, 206. + abandons "splendid isolation" ideal, 27. + acquires the Fiji Group, 134. + and her Indian Empire, 86. + and Japan, alliance, 14, 28, 34, 39, 199. + Treaty of Commerce and Navigation with Japan, 206, 207-211. + and Russia, an understanding between, 213, 214. + _entente_ between, 199. + friendship between, 211. + and the Pacific, 269. + and United States, an instinct towards friendliness, 199. + friendliness between, 215. + treaty with United States, 220. + annexes New Zealand, 125. + entry into the Pacific, 85. + her naval strength in the Pacific, 14. + Imperialist sentiment in, 203. + navy of, 180. + sensitive to opinions of her Dominions, 203. + the rivalry of the United States, 269. + trade relations with Japan, 38. + + Great Britain, where established on west of Pacific, 248. + + Great Lakes, the, and the United States, 70. + + Greek Church, the, 22, 188. + and the Byzantine Empire, 23. + republics, the, and the Persian Empire, 41. + + Greeks and Persians, 40. + + Grijalba in Mexico, 156. + + Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, 179. + + Gulf Stream, the, 87, 219. + + + "Habitants," 167. + + Hairy Ainus, the, 35. + + Hamilton, Alexander, 71. + + Hawaii and the Maoris, 139. + Arms Registration Ordinance, 79. + Spaniards in, 93. + the coolies and traders of, 145. + the key to the Pacific coast of North America, 3. + + Hawaiian garrison, the, 190. + Group, natives helpless material for nation-making, 145. + Islands, the, 77, 258, 259. + annexation of, 78, 81, 83. + Japanese in the, 44, 45, 58. + Republic formed, 78. + population: the chief element, 79, 80, 81. + + Hawaiians, the parent stock of the, 142, 145. + + _Health and Empire_, cit., 59-62. + + Hegemony of Pacific Ocean, 258. + + Heine, cit., 24. + + Henderson, Sir Reginald, 181. + + Hercules, the Pillars of, 1. + + Herodotus, 217. + + Holland, British treaty with, 96. + + Holy Alliance, the, 72, 155. + + Honduras, U.S.A., treaty with, 270-271. + + Hong Kong, 11, 85, 97, 248, 250. + harbour of, 98. + + Honolulu, 12, 260. + a holiday scene at, 80. + Harbour, 259. + Hiram Bingham's first sermon at, 77. + naval base at, 78, 80. + + Hughes, Colonel, 174, 195. + + Huidekoper, Mr, 171 (footnote), 172 (footnote). + + Huns, the, 40. + + + Imperial Conference of 1911, the, 127 _et seq._ + Defence Conference of 1909, the, 111, 172, 181, 183. + the British Admiralty memorandum concerning, 112. + Navy, an, 112, 130. + + Imperialism of Australia, 110. + + Imperialist sentiment in Great Britain, 203. + + Incas, the, 151, 152, 153. + + "Independent Tribes of New Zealand," the, 125. + + India, 11. + an independent, 9. + British garrisons in, 191. + defence of, 249. + Great Britain's apprehensions regarding, 25. + internecine warfare prohibited in, 59. + occupation of, 249. + Russia and, 25. + the British in, 9. + the _Raj_ and, 9. + the Sepoy forces in, 191. + western sea-passage to, 92. + White garrison of, 249. + + Indian Empire, the, Great Britain and, 86. + frontier, the, 205. + Ocean, the, 85. + + Industrial position in the Pacific, 235, 240. + "spheres of influence," 236, 240. + + Infanticide in China, 57. + + Internecine warfare prohibited by Europe, 59. + + Isthmian Canal, the, 271. + + Ivan the Terrible, 5. + + + James I., 104. + + Japan, 3, 4 _et al._ + a dwindling Power, 8. + alliance with Great Britain, 39. + an offender against China's national pride, 64. + and Christianity, 32, 33. + and Corea, 64. + and Great Britain, alliance, 14, 199. + and Manchuria, 64. + and Russia, 25, 26. + and Shintoism, 32. + and the Christian faith, 37. + and the problem of the Pacific, 42. + and trade relations with White + civilisation, 37, 38. + army of, 189. + army and navy of, 6. + bases for industrial prosperity in, 7. + character of her population, 43. + exclusiveness of, 37. + feudal, 36. + Germany a possible ally of, 199. + healing of local feuds in, 59. + in the Pacific, strategical position of, 260. + industrial expansion of, 7. + labour movement in, 7. + "most-favoured-nation" rates, 206. + nation-making, 32. + "natural capital" of, 44. + natural resources of, 6. + navy of, 14, 177, 178. + poverty of, 5, 6. + rumoured alliance with Mexico, 159. + Sea of, 260. + Shintoism in, 36. + territories won in battle, 6. + the awakening of, 31. + the greatest warrior Power in the Pacific, 32. + the "honoured ally" of Great Britain, 33. + the Mikados of, 31, 36. + the rise of, 31. + the Tartar invaders of, 35. + Treaty of Commerce and Navigation with Great Britain, 206, 207-211. + war with China, 26. + war with Russia, 7, 25 _et seq._, 265, 268. + warlike confidence of, 6. + + Japanese acquire Formosa, 38. + acquire the Pescadores, 38. + ancestry of, 35. + and British, analogy between, 35. + annex Corea, 38, 42. + arrogance of the, 46. + artistry of the, 34. + as painters and potters, 33. + --Chinese alliance the greatest Asiatic peril, 266. + contempt for Chinese, 56. + disappointment with the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, 210-211. + emigrants, 45, 46. + Government proposes State adoption of Christian religion, 32 (footnote). + hatred of, by Chinese, 56. + interests in Corea, 205. + Minister for Home Affairs: communication to Japanese + Press, 32-33 (footnote). + national feeling of the, 46. + naval estimates (current), 177. + settlements, 44. + tariffs, 241, 242. + the chief element of Hawaiian population, 79, 80, 81. + their reputed genius for war, 28. + transformation of the race, 33. + + Java, 93. + + Java Major, 103. + + Jebb, Mr Richard, 232. + + Jesuit missionaries in China, 50. + + "Jingoism" of British nations in South Pacific, the, 95. + + + Kanakas, the, 136, 142, 143, 144, 145. + + Kiao-Chou and the German "mailed fist," 10. + + Kidman, Mr Sydney, 252. + + Kirk, David, 166. + + Kirness, C. H., 253. + + Kitchener, Field-Marshal Lord, 111. + + Knox, Secretary, 159 (footnote), 212. + + Kouropatkin, General, 29. + + Kwei Chih, Mr, 55 (footnote). + + + Labour and anti-Asiatic movements, 232, 233. + movement in Japan, the, 7. + + Lansdowne, Marquess of, 201. + + Latin America, 147 _et seq._, 162, 273. + and the Monroe doctrine, 162. + British export trade with, 162, 163. + navy of, 183. + race-mixture in, 147. + strength of, 160-161. + summary of position of, 163. + the military strength of, 196. + universal service in, 197. + + Latin-American armies, the, 197. + Empire, a, 161. + Power, a, 150. + Republics, the, 72, 75. + United States, the Suzerain Power of, 74. + + Latin-Indian race, the, 147. + + Latin peoples, the, 267. + + Laurier, Sir Wilfrid, 128, 183, 194. + defeat of, 170 _et seq._ + + Laval, Monseigneur, 167. + + Lesseps, Ferdinand de, 216. + + Levant, the, 41. + + Lithuania, Roman culture in, 22. + + Lithuanians, the, 22. + + Logie, Colonel, 196. + + _London Gazette_, the, on America, 70. + + Louis XIV. of France, 167. + + Louisiana, cession of, 72. + + + Macaulay, Captain, 97. + + Macdonald, Sir C., 201. + + Machiavelli, 57. + + Magalhaes, 104. + + Malacca, 95. + + Malakiki Hill, the Gibraltar of Honolulu, 79. + + Malay Archipelago, the, 58. + Peninsula, the, 230. + Chinese rights in, 142. + States, the, 142. + + Malays and Chinese, 230. + + Malaysians, the, 139. + + Malthusian checks, 57, 65. + + Manchu dynasty, the, 50, 55 (footnote). + + Manchuria, 5, 6, 20. + Japan and, 64. + Russian generals in, 29. + + Manchus, the, 8, 9, 266. + + Manila, 260. + + Maori flag saluted by British warship, 125. + + Maori, the, 122, 136, 138, 139. + race in 1769, population of, 141. + system of government, the, 139. + War, the, 140. + + Maoris, cannibalism prevalent among, 140. + cede their country to Queen Victoria, 125. + chivalry of, 140. + in New Zealand, population of, 145. + results of civilisation, 141. + similarity to Japanese, 141. + the parent stock of the, 142. + + Marco Polo, 49, 103. + + Marsden, Rev. Samuel, 123. + + Maximilian, 157. + + Mediterranean, the, 1. + and the White Man, 267. + Russia and, 18, 23. + + Melanesia, 94. + + Meliorism, 265. + + Mencius, 52. + + Merritt, Lieut.-Col. Wm. Hamilton, 195. + + Mexicans, the aboriginal, 137. + the, and Diaz, 158. + + Mexico, 2, 150, 259. + army of, 197. + Balboa in, 153. + Empire of, 157. + Grijalba lands at, 156. + Gulf of, and the United States, 70. + Republic of, 161, 163. + rumoured alliance with Japan, 159. + Spaniards in, 92. + under Spanish rule, 157. + United States and intervention, 159, 269. + Velasquez in, 156-157. + yields independence to Cortes, 156. + + Meyer, Secretary, U.S. Navy, 178, 179. + + Mikados of Japan, 31, 36. + + Military College of Australia, the, 192. + official conditions of, 193. + strength of Latin America, the, 196. + training in Canada, 196. + + Militia, Canadian, a conference on organisation, 195. + + Militia force of Canada, 194. + + Ming dynasty, the, 50. + + Miscegenation, 148, 149. + + Mississippi, the, 165. + + Mogul, the Great, 3. + + Mohammedans and China, 48. + + Mongol dynasty, the, 49. + invasion of Russia, 22. + + Mongolia, Russia's designs on, 211. + + Mongols, the, 21, 44. + + Monroe doctrine, the, 155, 159 (footnote), 160, 171, 220. + in United States, 71, 72, 73, 75. + extended in scope, 73-74. + + Monroe, President, 71. + his formal message, 72 _et seq._ + + Morioris, the, 139. + + Moscow, 22. + + Mosquitoes, 217. + Herodotus on, 217. + massacre of, in Panama Canal-building, 217. + Papuan natives and, 217. + trouble of, in cutting Suez Canal, 218. + + Mukden, battle of, 29, 39, 40, 41, 42. + + Murray, His Excellency Colonel, 144. + + Muscovite Czars, the, 23. + + + Napoleon, 16, 17, 18, 40, 72, 157, 246. + and Russia, 24. + + Napoleonic Wars, the, 155. + + Naval forces of the Pacific, 176 _et seq._ + + Navies of the Pacific: + Argentine Republic, 183. + Australia, 182. + Canada, 183. + Chili, 183. + China, 178. + Great Britain, 180. + Japan, 177. + Latin America, 183. + Russia, 176. + United States, 178. + + Navy, an Imperial, 130. + + Neutral market, a, 230. + markets, Asiatics in, 235, 236, 237. + in which Asiatics can compete, 244. + + Negro problem, the, 274. + + "New France," a, in America, 165. + the early founders of, 166. + + New Guinea, 248. + annexed by Queensland, 134. + + New South Wales, birth-rate of, 255. + Royal Commission on fall of birth-rate, 255, 257. + + New York, Naval Yard of, 13. + + _New York Sun_, the, 212. + + New Zealand, 3, 11, 13, 94, 248, 250, 265, 277. + a Company formed to colonise, 123. + its prospectus, 124. + a steady flow of emigrants to, 125. + and the smaller Colonies, 120 _et seq._ + anti-Asiatic policy of, 279. + army of, 191. + Captain Cook visits, 123, 141. + Christianity introduced, 123. + colonists aggressively Imperial, 95. + early settlers, 122. + Empire, a, 134. + exclusion of Asiatics, 234. + formally taken over by Great Britain, 125. + impatient Imperialism of, 277. + Imperial patriotism of, 127. + Maoris in, 145. + naval agreement with, 132, 133 (footnote). + naval policy of, 133. + population of, 141. + strategical position of, 251. + the "Bush," 120. + the Treaty of Waitangi, 125, 126. + universal training for military service, 130. + + Nicaragua, U.S.A., treaty with, 270. + + Norfolk Island, 251. + + Normans, the, 22, 89, 90. + + Norsemen pirates, the, 89. + + North America, the Republic of, 150. + + North Sea, the, 87. + + Northern Territory of Australia, the, 138, 238 (footnote), 251, 252, + 253, 254, 262. + conditions as regards productiveness and health, 254. + decidedly healthy, 254. + life in, 254. + + Novgorod, 213. + + + Ocean of the future, the, 1 _et seq._ + + "Open-door" agreements, 236, 241. + + Opium War of 1840, the, 50. + + Oregon, annexation of, 73. + + Osaka _Mainichi_, the, on the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, 210. + + Ottoman invasion, the, 41. + suzerainty of Europe, Napoleon and the, 40. + + Oversea Dominions, population of, 128, 129. + + + Pacific armies, the chief, 198. + British Dominions, uneasiness regarding British-Japanese Treaty, 202, + 204. + Fleet: Australian unit, 181. + of American battleships, the welcome given to, 278. + Russia urged to build a, 213. + + Pacific, the, American influence in, 11-12. + and Great Britain, 269. + and the United States, 269. + armies of the, 186 _et seq._ + British Empire and the mastery of, 11. + British influence in, 11. + British possessions in, 13. + British trade interests in, 162. + China and, 8 _et seq._ + control of: an Anglo-Celtic union advisable, 14. + Drake's log on entering, 91. + fortresses and trading stations, 3. + France and, 10. + future of, Japan's chance, 265. + future of, with White Races, 265. + Germany and, 10. + Great Britain and, 10. + hegemony of, 4, 46. + India and, 9, 10. + industrial position, governed by excluding Asiatic labour, 235, 240. + industrial position in, 228 _et seq._ + Japan and, 5 _et seq._ + Japan the greatest warrior Power in, 32. + naval and military forces in, 15. + navies of the, 176 _et seq._ + no Free Trade ideas in the, 235. + ocean of the future, 1. + position of Japan in, 46. + rivals for, 263 _et seq._ + Russia in, 16 _et seq._, 268. + Russian influence in, 4. + South America and, 10. + Spain in, 91. + strategical position of Japan in, 260. + of United States in, 260. + strategy of, 246. + Treaties in, 199. + United States and, 68. + Yellow and White Races and, 63. + + Palmyra Island, 12 (footnote). + + Pan-American Bureau, the, 272. + Conferences, 272, 273. + + Panama Canal, the, 5, 12, 13, 42, 75, 160, 163, 176, 178, 179, 216 + _et seq._, 218, 220, 243, 259, 260, 265, 280. + and United States, 269. + American commerce and, 225. + amount expended by United States, 227. + amount of Pacific and Atlantic water exchanged by, 220. + as a tariff weapon, 224. + early difficulties, 216. + free navigation of, 221. + intended by United States as means of securing dominance in Pacific, + 223, 224. + military police for, 221. + naval base at Cuba, 222. + "neutralisation" of the, 220. + plague of mosquitoes, 217. + Secretary Meyer on, 179. + sovereign rights of the United States, 222. + tolls, 225. + treaty regarding management, 220. + + Panama, hills of, 219 + Isthmus, the, 81, 155. + by no means unhealthy, 218. + the United States and, 67. + + Papua, natives of, and mosquitoes, 217. + + Papua, New Guinea, 144. + + Paraguay, army of, 198. + Republic of, 161. + + Peace Societies, 109. + + Peace of Shimonoseki, the, and its consequences, 38. + + Pearl Harbour, 78, 79. + + Pekin, the expedition of 1900 to, 50. + + Penang, 95. + + Persia and the Greeks, 40. + + Persian Gulf, the, 25. + + Peru, 2, 10, 92, 150, 151 _et seq._, 160. + occupied by Spaniards, 154. + + Peruvians, the, 8, 137. + and the elimination of the fighting instinct, 111. + Spanish description of, 152. + + Pescadores, the, acquired by Japan, 38. + + Philippine garrison, the, 190. + + Philippines, the, 3, 4, 12, 104, 259. + Anson's attempt to subdue, 91. + the Spaniards at, 104. + United States acquire, 82. + + Pizarro, Francisco, 153, 156. + + "Places at table," 118. + + "Places in the sun," 118. + + Plague, the, 59. + Dr Francis Fremantle on, 60. + Prof. W. J. Simpson on, 61. + + Polk, President, 73. + + Polo, Marco, 49, 103. + + Polynesia, 94. + + Pope of Rome exchanges greetings with Chinese Grand Khan, 50. + + Portugal: trade relations with Japan, 38. + + Poutrincourt, 166. + + Power, Senator, 196. + + Prayers for rain, 106. + + Preventive medicine as aid to population, 118. + + Protection, a rigid system of, 226. + + + Quebec, 166. + captured by Admiral Kirk, 166. + restored to France, 167. + the capital of "New France," 166. + + Queensland annexes New Guinea, 134. + + + Race-mixture, instinct against, 20. + + Race troubles in Canada, 233. + + Races, psychology of, 35. + + Raffles, Sir Stamford, 96. + + Rain, prayers for, 106. + + Raw levies, uselessness of, 197. + + Republicanism in China, 54, 55. + Mr Kwei Chih on, 55 (footnote). + + Richelieu, 166. + + Rocky Mountains, the, 169, 243. + + _Roebuck_, the, 104. + + Roman Catholics in Canada, 168. + + Roman invasion of Britain, 87, 88. + + Romanised Britons, 88. + + _Rosanna_, the, conveys pioneers to New Zealand, 123. + + Rurik, 22. + + Russia, 3, 4. + and a Pacific Fleet, 213. + and Great Britain, _entente_ between, 199. + and India, 18. + and Japan, 25, 26. + and Napoleon, 24. + and Siberia, 25. + and the Mediterranean, 18, 23. + and the Napoleonic invasion, 16, 17. + and the Pacific, 10. + and the Persian Gulf, 25. + army of, 186, 187. + British dread of, 18. + British maritime intercourse with, 214. + Cross versus Crescent, 23. + early European civilisations, 21. + European jealousy of, 5. + expansion of, 19. + mistrust of European Powers, 24. + future position of, in the Pacific, 29. + Great Britain's alarm of, 24, 25. + Greeks and Romans in, 21. + in Constantinople, 23. + interior of, 21. + invasion of the Turks, 23. + Lord Salisbury on, 16. + national heroes of, 22. + naval strategy of, 261. + navy of, 176. + race-mixture in, 20. + religious faith, 22. + service to civilisation, 23. + the avenger of the White Races, 23. + war with Japan, 7, 19, 25 _et seq._, 265. + + Russian intentions on Mongolia, 211. + + Russians, faith of the, 23. + + Russo-Japanese War, the, 7, 19, 25 _et seq._, 265. + difficulties of Russians, 29. + + + St Francis Xavier, 37. + + St Germain-en-Laye, Treaty of, 167. + + St Helena, Napoleon in, 18. + + St Lawrence, the, 165. + + Saito, Baron, 46. + + Salisbury, Lord, 16. + + Sandwich Islands, 77. + + San Francisco, 91, 260. + + Satsuma, revolt of the, 38. + + Sea of Japan, 260, 261. + + Selkirks, the, 169, 243. + + Semites, the, 21. + + Sepoy forces in India, 191. + + "Setch," the Cossack, 188, 189. + + Shimonoseki, the Peace of, 38. + the Straits of, 38. + + Shintoism, 32, 36. + + Shoguns, the, 36. + + Siberia, Russia and, 25. + the Cossacks and, 5. + + Siberian Railway, the, 186. + + Simeon, 22. + + Simpson, Prof. W. J., on the Plague, 61. + + Singapore, 11, 85, 95, 96, 250, 258. + harbour of, 97. + + Slavs, the, 22, 267. + + Socialism in Japan, 7. + + Socialists in China, 49. + + Sorcerer, the, in the South Sea Islands, 149. + + South America, 10. + + South American armies, 198. + + South Pacific, the British Flag in, 135. + the native races, 135. + + South Sea Islands, 93, 149. + + Spain: war with United States, 82. + + "Spheres of influence," the, 85, 236, 240. + + Spice Islands, the, 93. + + Straits of Shimonoseki forced, 38. + + Straits Settlements, the, 248. + + Strategical considerations, 245 _et seq._ + + Suez Canal, free navigation of, 221. + the mosquito trouble, 218. + + Sumarai, the, 32. + + Sun-worship, 151. + + Suva, 143. + + + Taft, President, 159 (footnote), 171 (footnote), 218, 225, 271. + + Talon, Jean Baptiste, 167. + + Taoism, 49. + + Tartar and Mongol tribes, the, 49. + + Tartary, 3, 22. + + Tasmania, 137. + + Teutons, the, 267. + + Texas, annexation of, 73. + + Thakombau, King, 134. + + Theodosius, Emperor, 49. + + Tibet, British intentions on, 211. + + Tokio _Nichi-Nichi_, the, 211. + + Tracy, Marquis de, 167. + + Trade reciprocity, 164, 174. + + Trans-Andine railways, the, 10. + + Treaties in the Pacific, 199. + + Treaties with Japan, British (1902), 199. + (1905), 204-209. + (1911), 199, 206, 207-211. + + Treaty of Commerce and Navigation between Great Britain and Japan, 206, + 207-211. + of St Germain-en-Laye, 167. + + Triple Alliance, the, 199. + + Triple Entente, the, 213. + + Truvor, 22. + + Turkey, Lord Salisbury on, 16. + + Turks, the, 23, 40. + at Constantinople, 41. + Russia and, 19. + + + United States, the, 2, 3, 12, 13. + a social difficulty, 274. + absorption of Mexican territory by, 158. + acquisition of Hawaii, 78, 81, 83. + aggressively Imperial, 68. + and Cuba, 82. + and Germany, possibilities of an "understanding" between, 212. + and Great Britain, an instinct towards friendliness, 199, 215. + and the Atlantic, 67. + and the Negroes, 233. + and the Philippines, 82. + and trade relations with Japan, 37. + army of, 190. + British diplomacy and, 276, 277, 279. + considering intervention in Mexico, 159. + control waterway from Atlantic to Pacific, 82. + decide to construct Panama Canal, 216. + Declaration of Neutrality, 70. + established in the Caribbean Sea, 67. + on the Isthmus of Panama, 67. + establishing naval base at Cuba, 222. + foreign policy, 75. + Germany a possible ally of, 199. + imperialism in, 66. + in the Pacific, strategical position of, 260. + lynchings in, 20. + marvellous growth of, 70, 72. + miscegenation in, 20. + naval strength of, in the Pacific, 14. + navy, 178. + effective tonnage, 185. + Secretary Meyer's report on, 178. + neutral markets, 83. + organisation of industrial machinery, 243. + Pacific possessions, 84. + policy, Imperialist tendency of, 77. + rivals of Great Britain, 269. + rules for exclusion of Chinese, 235. + strategical position of, 258. + the greatest factor in the Problem of the Pacific, 68. + the greatest White nation of the world, 150. + the "Monroe doctrine" in, 71, 72, 73, 75. + the Suzerain Power of the Latin-American Republics, 74. + war with Spain, 82 + when Panama Canal opened, the greatest Power of the Pacific, 243. + + Universal military training proposed in Canada, 196. + + "Universal service" in Latin America, 197. + + Ural Mountains, the, 20. + + Uruguay, 161, 163. + + + Vancouver, 251. + + Veddas, the, 138. + + Velasquez, conqueror of Cuba, 156. + + Venezuela controversy, the, 74. + Republic of, 161. + + Victoria, Queen, 24, 125. + + Vienna and the Ottoman invasion, 41. + + + Waitangi, the Treaty of, 125, 126. + + Wakefield, Mr Edward Gibbon, 124. + + Wallace on the black Australian, 137. + + War, the necessity of, 6. + + Ward, Sir Joseph, 127 _et seq._ + + Washington's farewell address, 71. + + Wei-hai-wei, 248, 250. + + Wesleyan mission to New Zealand, 132. + + "White Australia," 107, 254. + laws, the, 20. + policy, basis of, 232. + + White garrison of India, the, 249. + labour, impatient, 240. + Man and the Pacific, 63. + Race, the, 2, 4, 107. + conquests of, 41. + superiority of, 263, 267. + Races, America and the, 12. + birth-rate, 257. + neither enervated nor decadent, 264. + the future of the Pacific with the, 265. + Russia consolidated by the Normans, 22. + Mongol invasion of, 22. + + _Worker, The_, on Asiatic colonisation, 240 (footnote). + + + Xavier, St Francis, 37. + + "X-Ray Martyr," the, 229. + + + Yellow Man, danger of overrunning the Pacific, 63. + + "Yellow Peril," the, 264, 280. + + Yellow Race, the, 2, 4. + defeats the White Race in war, 39. + + Yellow Races, the United States and the, 13. + + Yturbidi, Emperor Augustin de, 157. + + Yuan Shih-Kai, 54. + + +PRINTED BY NEILL AND CO., LTD., EDINBURGH. + + + + + * * * * * + + + + +Transcriber's note: + +1. Except as noted below, spelling and inconsistencies have been +retained as they appear in the original publication. + +2. "X-ray" in the text appears as "X-Ray" in the index. + +3. "FitzGerald" in the text appears as "Fitz-Gerald" in the index. + +4. On page 205, in the sentence starting "Japan possessing paramount", +"Great Britain" was "Gerat Britain" in the original. + +5. On page 240, "wheel-barrow" was "wheel-barrrow" in the original. + +6. The punctuation in the index has been made consistent. + +7. The name "Terra Austrialia del Espiritu Santo" is correct. +"Austrialia" was an invented hybrid word combining the names "Austria" +and "australis" as a compliment to King Phillip III of Spain who was a +member of the House of Habsburg (Austria). + +8. "the cageing of the great soldier" was changed to "the caging of the +great soldier" + +9. "Hayti" is an old spelling of "Haiti". It has been retained. + +10. On p. 155 the word "reassert" has been changed from "re-assert" to +match the spelling elsewhere in the book. + +*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK 40305 *** |