Add files from ibiblio as of 2025-03-08 23:40:26HEADmain

1 files changed, 8403 insertions, 0 deletions

diff --git a/40305-0.txt b/40305-0.txt
new file mode 100644
index 0000000..6c9ac72
--- /dev/null
+++ b/40305-0.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,8403 @@
+*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK 40305 ***
+
+Note: Project Gutenberg also has an HTML version of this
+      file which includes the original map.
+      See 40305-h.htm or 40305-h.zip:
+      (http://www.gutenberg.org/files/40305/40305-h/40305-h.htm)
+      or
+      (http://www.gutenberg.org/files/40305/40305-h.zip)
+
+
+
+
+
+PROBLEMS OF THE PACIFIC
+
+by
+
+FRANK FOX
+
+Author of "Ramparts of Empire"
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+London
+Williams & Norgate
+14 Henrietta Street, Covent Garden
+1912
+
+
+
+
+CONTENTS
+
+
+CHAP.                                                      PAGE
+
+  1. THE OCEAN OF THE FUTURE                                  1
+
+  2. RUSSIA IN THE PACIFIC                                   16
+
+  3. THE RISE OF JAPAN                                       31
+
+  4. CHINA AND THE TEEMING MILLIONS OF ASIA                  47
+
+  5. THE UNITED STATES--AN IMPERIAL POWER                    66
+
+  6. GREAT BRITAIN'S ENTRY INTO THE PACIFIC                  85
+
+  7. THE BRITISH CONTINENT IN THE PACIFIC                   100
+
+  8. NEW ZEALAND AND THE SMALLER BRITISH PACIFIC COLONIES   120
+
+  9. THE NATIVE RACES                                       136
+
+ 10. LATIN AMERICA                                          147
+
+ 11. CANADA AND THE PACIFIC                                 165
+
+ 12. THE NAVIES OF THE PACIFIC                              176
+
+ 13. THE ARMIES OF THE PACIFIC                              186
+
+ 14. TREATIES IN THE PACIFIC                                199
+
+ 15. THE PANAMA CANAL                                       216
+
+ 16. THE INDUSTRIAL POSITION IN THE PACIFIC                 228
+
+ 17. SOME STRATEGICAL CONSIDERATIONS                        245
+
+ 18. THE RIVALS                                             263
+
+[Illustration]
+
+
+
+
+PROBLEMS OF THE PACIFIC
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER I
+
+THE OCEAN OF THE FUTURE
+
+
+The Pacific is the ocean of the future. As civilisation grows and
+distances dwindle, man demands a larger and yet larger stage for the
+fighting-out of the ambitions of races. The Mediterranean sufficed for
+the settlement of the issues between the Turks and the Christians,
+between the Romans and the Carthaginians, between the Greeks and the
+Persians, and who knows what other remote and unrecorded struggles of
+the older peoples of its littoral. Then the world became too great to be
+kept in by the Pillars of Hercules, and Fleets--in the service alike of
+peace and war--ranged over the Atlantic. The Mediterranean lost its
+paramount importance, and dominance of the Atlantic became the test of
+world supremacy.
+
+Now greater issues and greater peoples demand an even greater stage. On
+the bosom of the Pacific will be decided, in peace or in war, the next
+great struggle of civilisation, which will give as its prize the
+supremacy of the world. Shall it go to the White Race or the Yellow
+Race? If to the White Race, will it be under the British Flag, or the
+flag of the United States, or of some other nation? That is the problem
+of the Pacific.
+
+Since Cortes first looked on the waters of the ocean from a peak in
+Darien, since Balboa of Castile waded into its waters and claimed them
+for the dominion of the King of Castile, events have rushed forward with
+bewildering haste to transfer the centre of the world's interest to the
+Pacific. Cortes in his day looked to a North Pacific coast inhabited by
+a few wandering Indians. (The powerful national organisation of Mexico
+had not extended its influence as far as the Pacific coast.) Now there
+stretch along that coast the Latin-American Power of Mexico, doomed,
+probably, to be absorbed before the great issue of Pacific dominance is
+decided, but having proved under Diaz some capacity for organisation;
+the gigantic Power of the United States with the greatest resources of
+wealth and material force ever possessed by a single nation of the
+world; and the sturdy young Power of Canada.
+
+To the South, Cortes looked to a collection of Indian States, of which
+Peru was the chief, boasting a gracious but unwarlike civilisation,
+doomed to utter destruction at the hands of Spain. Now that stretch of
+Pacific littoral is held by a group of Latin-American nations, the
+possibilities of which it is difficult accurately to forecast, but which
+are in some measure formidable if Chili is accepted as a standard by
+which to judge, though, on the whole, they have shown so far but little
+capacity for effective national organisation.
+
+Looking westward, Cortes in his day could see nothing but darkness. It
+was surmised rather than known that there lay the Indies, the kingdoms
+of the Cham of Tartary and the great Mogul, lands which showed on the
+horizon of the imagination, half real, half like the fantasy of a
+mirage. To-day the west coast of the Pacific is held by the European
+Power of Russia; by the aspiring Asiatic Power of Japan, which within
+half a century has forgotten the use of the bow and the fan in warfare
+and hammered its way with modern weapons into the circle of the world's
+great Powers; by China, stirring uneasily and grasping at the same
+weapons which won greatness for Japan; by a far-flung advance guard of
+the great Power of the United States in the Philippines, won
+accidentally, held grimly; by England's lonely outposts, Australia and
+New Zealand, where less than five millions of the British race hold a
+territory almost as large as Europe.
+
+Sprinkled over the surface of the ocean, between East and West, are
+various fortresses or trading stations, defending interests or arousing
+cupidities. Germany and France are represented. The United States holds
+Hawaii, the key to the Pacific coast of North America, either for
+offence or defence. Great Britain has Fiji and various islets. The
+Japanese Power stretches down towards the Philippines with the recent
+acquisition of Formosa.
+
+Here are seen all the great actors in European rivalry. Added to them
+are the new actors in world-politics, who represent the antagonism of
+the Yellow Race to the White Race. Before all is dangled the greatest
+temptation to ambition and cupidity. Who is master of the Pacific, who
+has the control of its trade, the industrial leadership of its peoples,
+the disposal of its warrior forces, will be master of the world.
+
+It is a problem not only of navies and armies (though with our present
+defective civilisation these are the most important factors): it is a
+problem also of populations and their growth, of industries, of the
+development of natural resources, of trade and commerce. The Pacific
+littoral is in part unpeopled, in part undeveloped, unorganised,
+unappropriated. Its Asiatic portion must change, it is changing, from a
+position which may be compared with that of Japan fifty years ago to a
+position such as Japan's to-day. Its American and Australian portion
+must develop power and wealth surpassing that of Europe. Under whose
+leadership will the change be made? To discuss that question is the
+purpose of this book: and at the outset the lines on which the
+discussion will proceed and the conclusions which seem to be inevitable
+may be foreshadowed.
+
+At one time Russia seemed destined to the hegemony of the Pacific. Yet
+she was brought to the Pacific coast by accident rather than by design.
+Her natural destiny was westward and southward rather than eastward,
+though it was natural that she should slowly permeate the Siberian
+region. As far back as the reign of Ivan the Terrible (the Elizabethan
+epoch in Anglo-Saxon history), the curious celibate military
+organisation of the Cossacks had won much of Siberia for the Czars. But
+there was no dream then, nor at a very much later period, of penetration
+to the Pacific.
+
+European jealousy of Russia, a jealousy which is explainable only with
+the reflection that vast size naturally fills with awe the human mind,
+stopped her advance towards the Mediterranean. In the north her ports
+were useless in winter. In the south she was refused a development of
+her territory which was to her mind natural and just. Thus thwarted,
+Russia groped in a blind way from the Siberian provinces which had been
+won by the Cossacks towards a warm-water port in Asia. At first the
+movement was southward and filled England with alarm as to the fate of
+India. Then it turned eastward, and in Manchuria and Corea this European
+Power seemed to find its destiny. But Japan was able to impose an
+effective check upon Russian ambitions in the Far East. At the present
+moment Russia has been supplanted in control of the Asiatic seaboard by
+Japan.
+
+Japan has everything but money to equip her for a bold bid for the
+mastery of the Pacific before the completion of the Panama Canal. Europe
+has taught to Japan, in addition to the material arts of warfare, a
+cynical faith in the moral value, indeed, the necessity, of war to
+national welfare. She considers that respect is only to be gained by
+war: that war with a European nation is an enterprise of small risk:
+that in short her experience with the Russian Fleet was fairly typical
+of war with any European Power. She believes that she has the most
+thoroughly efficient army and navy, considering their size, in the
+world; and has much to justify the belief.
+
+This ambition and the warlike confidence of Japan constitute to-day a
+more important factor in the problem of the Pacific than her actual
+fighting strength. But the check to prompt decisive action on her part
+is that of poverty. Japan is very poor. The last war, in spite of great
+gain of prestige, brought no gain of money. Its cost bled her veins
+white, and there was no subsequent transfusion in the shape of a Russian
+indemnity. Nor are the natural resources of Japan such as to hold out
+much hope of a quick industrial prosperity. She has few minerals. Her
+soil is in the bulk wretchedly poor. From the territories control of
+which she has won in battle--Manchuria and Corea--she will reap some
+advantage by steadily ignoring the "open door" obligation in trade, and
+by dispossessing the native peasantry. But it cannot be very great.
+There is no vast natural wealth to be exploited. The native peasantry
+can be despoiled and evicted, but the booty is trifling and the cost of
+the process not inconsiderable since even the Corean will shoot from his
+last ditch.
+
+Japan is now seeking desperately a material prosperity by industrial
+expansion. A tariff and bounty system, the most rigid and scientific the
+world knows, aims to make the country a great textile-weaving,
+ship-building, iron-making country. The smallest scrap of an industry is
+sedulously nurtured, and Japanese matches, Japanese soap, Japanese beer,
+penetrate to the markets of the outer world as evidence of the ambition
+of the people to be manufacturers. But when one explores down to
+bedrock, the only real bases for industrial prosperity in Japan are a
+supply of rather poor coal and a great volume of cheap labour. The
+second is of some value in cheap production, but it is yet to be found
+possible to build up national prosperity on the sole basis of cheap
+labour. Further, with the growth of modernity in Japan, there is
+naturally a labour movement. Doctrines of Socialism are finding
+followers: strikes are heard of occasionally. The Japanese artisan and
+coolie may not be content to slave unceasingly on wages which deny life
+all comfort, to help a method of national aggrandisement the purport of
+which they can hardly understand.
+
+The position of Japan in the Pacific has to be considered, therefore, in
+the light of the future rather than of the present. At the time of the
+conclusion of the war with Russia it seemed supreme. Since then it has
+steadily deteriorated. If she had succeeded in the realisation of her
+ambition to undertake the direction of China's military and industrial
+reorganisation, the Japanese Power would have been firmly established
+for some generations at least. But the defects in her national character
+prevented that. Inspiring no confidence among the Chinese, the Japanese
+found all attempts at peaceful assumption of a controlling influence in
+China checked by sullen antipathy; and a forced assumption would not
+have been tolerated by Europe. It will not be found possible, on a full
+survey of the facts, to credit Japan with the power to hold a supreme
+place in the Pacific. She is, even now, among the dwindling Powers.
+
+China, on the other hand, has the possibilities of a mighty future.
+To-day she is in the throes of nation-birth. To-morrow she may unbind
+her feet and prepare to join in the race for supremacy. The bringing of
+China into the current of modern life will not be an easy task, but it
+is clearly not an impossible one. Before the outbreak of the present
+Revolution (which may place China among the democratic Republics of the
+world), the people of the Celestial Empire had begun to reconsider
+seriously their old attitude of intolerance towards European
+civilisation. To understand fully the position of China it is necessary
+to keep in mind the fact that the actual Chinese nation, some
+400,000,000 of people, enervated as were the Peruvians of South America,
+by a system of theocratic and pacific Socialism, were subjected about
+250 years ago to the sovereignty of the Manchus, a warrior race from the
+Steppes. Since then the Manchus have governed China, tyrannously,
+incompetently, on the strength of a tradition of military superiority
+stronger far than the _Raj_ by which the British have held India. But
+the Manchus--in numbers and in intellect far inferior to the
+Chinese--forgot in time their military enterprise and skill. The
+tradition of it, however, remained until the events of the nineteenth
+and twentieth centuries showed that the Manchu military power was
+contemptible not only against the white foreigner, but also against the
+Japanese _parvenu_. Patient China, finding her tyrant to be a weak
+despot, revolts now, not only against the Manchu dynasty, but also
+against the Conservatism which has kept her from emulating Japan's
+success in the world.
+
+At present the power of China in the Pacific is negligible. In the
+future it may be the greatest single force in that ocean. Almost
+certainly it may be reckoned to take the place of Japan as the chief
+Asiatic factor.
+
+Japan and China having been considered, the rest of Asia is negligible
+as affecting the destiny of the Pacific except in so far as India can
+serve as basis of action for British power. An independent Indian nation
+is hardly one of the possibilities of the future. Religious, racial, and
+caste distinctions make a united, independent India at present
+impossible. Unless the British Power carries too far a tendency to
+conciliate the talking tribes of the Hindoo peninsula at the expense of
+the fighting tribes, it should hold India by right of a system of
+government which is good though not perfect, and by reason of the
+impossibility of suggesting any substitute. In the event of a failure of
+the British Power, India would still, in all probability, fail to take a
+place among the great nations of the earth. Either she would fall a
+victim to some other nation or relapse into the condition, near to
+anarchy, which was hers before the coming of the Europeans.
+
+It is not possible to imagine to-day any European Power other than Great
+Britain--with the possible exception of Russia--becoming strongly
+established in the Pacific. France and Germany have footholds certainly.
+But in neither case is the territory held by them possible of great
+development, and in neither case is there a chain of strategic stations
+to connect the Pacific colony with the Mother Country. The despatch of
+the German "mailed fist" to Kiao-Chou in China some years ago is still
+remembered as one of the comic rather than the serious episodes of
+history. The squadron bearing to the Chinese the martial threat of the
+German Emperor had to beg its way from one British coaling station to
+another because of the lack of German ports.
+
+The influence of South America in the Pacific need not yet be
+calculated. It is a possible far-future factor in the problem; and the
+completion of Trans-Andine railways may quickly enhance the importance
+of Chili and Peru. But for the present South America can take no great
+part in the Pacific struggle.
+
+It is when British influence and American influence in the Pacific come
+to be considered that the most important factors in the contest for its
+supremacy enter upon the stage. Let us consider, for the nonce, the two
+Powers separately.
+
+The British Empire--holding Australia and New Zealand with an audacious
+but thin garrison; having a long chain of strategic stations such as
+Hong Kong and Singapore; having in India a powerful rear base for
+supplies; holding a great part of the North-West Coast of America with a
+population as yet scanty but beginning to develop on the same lines as
+the Australasian people--is clearly well situated to win and to hold the
+mastery of the Pacific. Such mastery would have to be inspired with
+peaceful ideals; it could not survive as an aggressive force. It is
+indeed the main strength of the British position in the Pacific that it
+is naturally anxious, not for a disturbance but for a preservation of
+the present state of things, which gives to the British Empire all that
+a reasonable ambition could require. It is wise and easy to be peaceable
+when one has all the best of the spoils.
+
+For a secure British mastery of the Pacific, India would need to be held
+with the military assistance of South Africa and Australia, and made a
+great naval base; Australia and New Zealand would need to be populated
+seriously; Canada would need to be guarded against absorption by the
+United States and its new population kept as far as possible to the
+British type; the friendship and co-operation of the United States would
+need to be sought.
+
+Turning next to the United States it will be recognised that she has in
+a realised form all the force and wealth possible to an organised China
+or a fully developed Australia. She has one hundred million people, who
+have reached the highest stage of civilised organisation. Their material
+wealth--and wealth counts for much in modern war--is almost
+incalculable. Their national ambition has never been checked by defeat.
+Lately it has been fed with foreign war and territorial conquest and it
+has found the taste good. The American people face the future possessed
+of all the material for a policy of aggressive Imperialism and with a
+splendidly youthful faith in their own good motives, a faith which can
+justify an action better than any degree of cynicism. There is as much
+of the "old Adam" in them as in the peoples of any of the "effete
+monarchies," and many circumstances seem to point to them as anxious to
+take the lead among the White Races in the future.
+
+As regards the Pacific, American ambition is clear. The United States
+holds the Philippines at great expense of treasure and blood. She is
+fortifying Honolulu, with the idea of making it a naval base "stronger
+than Gibraltar."[1] She is cutting the Panama Canal and fortifying the
+entrances with the probable purpose of giving to the United States a
+monopoly of that gateway in time of war. With splendid audacity the
+American despises secrecy in regard to his future plans. In New York
+Naval Yard three years ago I was informed, with an amplitude of detail
+that was convincing, of the United States' scheme for patrolling the
+whole Pacific with her warships when the Canal had been finished.
+
+Supposing, then, the United States to continue her present industrial
+and commercial progress; supposing her to gradually tighten her hold on
+the rest of the American continent; supposing her to overcome certain
+centrifugal forces now at work, the problem of the Pacific, should the
+United States decide to play a "lone hand," will be solved. It will
+become an American lake, probably after a terrible struggle in which the
+pretensions of the Yellow Races will be shattered, possibly after
+another fratricidal struggle in which the British possessions in the
+Pacific, Australia, and New Zealand, equally with Canada, will be forced
+to obedience.
+
+But is there any necessity to consider the United States and the British
+Empire as playing mutually hostile parts in the Pacific? They have been
+the best of friends there in the past. They have many good reasons to
+remain friends in the future. A discussion as to whether the Pacific
+Ocean is destined to be controlled by the American or by the British
+Power could be reasonably ended with the query: Why not by an
+Anglo-Celtic union representing both?
+
+An Anglo-Celtic alliance embracing Great Britain, the United States and
+the British Dominions, would settle in the best way the problem of the
+Pacific. No possible combination, Asiatic, European, or Asia-European,
+could threaten its position. But there are certain difficulties in the
+way, which will be discussed later. For the present, it has only to be
+insisted that both Powers are potential rather than actual masters of
+the Pacific. Neither in the case of Great Britain nor of the United
+States is a great Pacific force at the moment established. After her
+treaty with Japan, Great Britain abandoned for a while the idea of
+maintaining any serious naval strength in the Pacific. The warships she
+maintained there, on the Australian station and elsewhere, had no
+fighting value against modern armaments, and were kept in the Pacific as
+a step towards the scrap-heap. That policy has since been reversed, and
+the joint efforts of Great Britain, Australia, and New Zealand directed
+towards re-establishing British Pacific naval strength. At the
+moment, however, the actual British naval force in the Pacific is
+inconsiderable, if obsolete or obsolescent vessels are ruled out of
+consideration. The United States also has no present naval force in the
+Pacific that could contest the issue with even a fraction of the
+Japanese navy. Clearly, too, she has no intention of attempting the
+organisation of a powerful Pacific Fleet separate from her Atlantic
+Fleet, but aims at the bolder policy of holding her interests in both
+oceans by one great Fleet which will use the Panama Canal to mobilise at
+an emergency in either.
+
+If the resources of the present with their probable growth in the future
+are taken into account, Great Britain and the United States will appear
+as massing enormous naval and military forces in the Pacific. The
+preponderance of naval force will be probably on the side of the United
+States for very many years--since it is improbable that Great Britain
+will ever be able to detach any great proportion of her Fleet from
+European waters and her Pacific naval force will be comprised mainly of
+levies from Australia and New Zealand, and possibly Canada, India, and
+South Africa. The preponderance of military force will be probably on
+the side of Great Britain, taking into count the citizen armies of
+Australia and New Zealand (and possibly of Canada) and the great forces
+available in India. Complete harmony between Great Britain and the
+United States in the Pacific would thus give the hegemony of the ocean
+to the Anglo-Saxon race. Rivalry between them might lead to another
+result. In the natural course of events that "other result" might be
+Asiatic dominion in one form or another.
+
+These factors in Pacific rivalry will be discussed in detail in the
+following chapters.
+
+FOOTNOTES:
+
+[1] Since the above was written it is reported that the United States
+has taken possession of Palmyra Island--once a British possession--to
+the south of Honolulu, obviously for strategic purposes.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER II
+
+RUSSIA IN THE PACIFIC
+
+
+Russia, for generations the victim of Asia, when at last she had won to
+national greatness, was impelled by pressure from the West rather than
+by a sense of requital to turn back the tide of invasion. That pressure
+from the West was due to a misunderstanding in which Great Britain led
+the way, and which the late Lord Salisbury happily described when he
+stated that England "had backed the wrong horse" in opposing Russia and
+in aiding Turkey against her.
+
+Russia, because she broke Napoleon's career of victory by her power of
+resistance, a power which was founded on a formlessness of national life
+rather than a great military strength, was credited by Europe with a
+fabulous might. Properly understood, the successful Russian resistance
+to the greatest of modern captains was akin to that of an earthwork
+which absorbs the sharpest blows of artillery and remains unmoved,
+almost unharmed. But it was misinterpreted, and a mental conception
+formed of the Russian earthwork as a mobile, aggressive force eager to
+move forward and to overwhelm Europe. Russia's feat of beating back the
+tide of Napoleonic invasion was merely the triumph of a low biological
+type of national organism. Yet it inspired Europe with a mighty fear.
+The "Colossus of the North" came into being to haunt every Chancellery.
+
+Nowhere was the fear felt more acutely than in Great Britain. It is a
+necessary consequence of the British Imperial expansion of the past, an
+expansion that came about very often in spite of the Mother Country's
+reluctance and even hostility, that Great Britain must now always view
+with distrust, with suspicion, that country which is the greatest of the
+European Continental Powers for the time being, whether it be France,
+Russia, or Germany. If British foreign policy is examined carefully it
+will be found to have been based on that guiding principle for many
+generations. Whatever nation appears to aim at a supreme position in
+Europe must be confronted by Great Britain.
+
+Sometimes British statesmen, following instinctively a course which was
+set for them by force of circumstances, have not recognised the real
+reason of their actions. They have imagined that there was some ethical
+warrant for the desire for a European "balance of power." They have seen
+in the malignant disposition of whatever nation was the greatest Power
+in Europe for the time being a just prompting to arrange restraining
+coalitions, to wage crippling wars. But the truth is that the British
+race, with so much that is desirable of the earth under its flag, with
+indeed almost all the good empty lands in its keeping, must be jealous
+of the next European Power. On the other hand, every growing Power in
+Europe must look with envy on the rich claim which one prospector, and
+that one not the earliest, has pegged out in the open fields of the
+world. Thus between Great Britain and the next European Power in rank
+there is always a mutual jealousy. The growing Power is credited with a
+desire to seize the rich lands of the British Empire; and generally has
+the desire. The holding Power is apprehensive of every step forward of
+any rival, seeing in it a threat to her Empire's security. There is such
+a thing in this world as being too rich to be comfortable. That is Great
+Britain's national position.
+
+Thus when the power of France was broken and Napoleon was safely shut up
+in St Helena, the British nation, relieved of one dread, promptly found
+another. Russia was credited with designs on India. She was supposed to
+be moving south towards the Mediterranean, and her object in seeking to
+be established there was obviously to challenge British naval supremacy,
+and to capture British overseas colonies. British diplomacy devoted
+itself sternly to the task of checkmating Russia. Russia, the big
+blundering amorphous nation, to whom England had given, some generations
+before, early promptings to national organisation, and who now sprawled
+clumsily across Europe groping for a way out of her ice-chains towards
+a warm-water port, became the traditional enemy of the British Empire.
+
+This idea of Russian rivalry grew to be an obsession. The melodramas of
+the British people had for their favourite topic the odious cruelty of
+Russian tyranny. If a submarine cable to a British colony were
+interrupted, or a quarry explosion startled the air, the colonists at
+once turned their thoughts to a Russian invasion, and mobilised their
+volunteers. Colonists of this generation can remember the thrills of
+early childhood, when more than once they "prepared for the Russians,"
+and the whole force of some hundreds of volunteers and cadets determined
+to sell their lives dearly on the battlefield to keep Russian knouts
+from the backs of their womenfolk, it being seriously considered that
+the Russian always celebrated a victory by a general knouting.
+
+Not until the idea of Russia establishing a hegemony over Europe had
+been dissipated by the Russo-Japanese War did British statesmanship
+really discover qualities of good neighbourliness in the Russian. But by
+that time the main direction of Russian expansion had been definitely
+settled as eastward instead of southward. Perhaps this was to the
+ultimate advantage of civilisation, even though the decision left the
+Hellenic peninsula in the grip of the Turk, for it pushed the buffer
+territory between Europe and Asia far forward into Asia. Should an
+Asiatic Power, with revived militancy, ever seek again the conquest of
+Europe, as Asiatic Powers have done before this, the war must commence
+in Manchuria, and not on the plains below the Ural Mountains.
+
+The position which Russia has occupied as a buffer state between Asia
+and Europe has kept her back in the ranks of the army of civilisation.
+Not only has she had to suffer the first of the savage blows which Asian
+hordes have from time to time aimed at Europe, but also she has had to
+endure Asiatic additions to her population, reducing the standard of her
+race.
+
+The instinct against race-mixture which Nature has implanted in man is
+the great safeguard of the work of evolution to a higher type. The White
+Race, having developed on certain lines to a position which promises, if
+it does not fulfil, the evolution of a yet higher type, has an
+instinctive repugnance to mixing its blood with peoples in other stages
+of evolution. It is this instinct, this transcendental instinct, which
+is responsible for the objection to miscegenation in the United States,
+and for the lynchings by which that objection is impressed upon the
+negro mind. The same instinct is at the back of the "White Australia"
+laws, forbidding coloured people any right of entry into Australia.
+
+It is not difficult to argue from a point of view of Christian religion
+and humanity against an instinct which finds its extreme, but yet its
+logical, expression in the burning of some negro offender at the stake.
+But all the arguments in the world will not prevail against Nature. Once
+a type has won a step up it must be jealous and "selfish," and even
+brutal in its scorn of lower types; or must climb down again. This may
+not be good ethics, but it is Nature. Russian backwardness in
+civilisation to-day is a living proof that the scorn of the coloured man
+is a necessary condition of the progress of the White Man's
+civilisation.
+
+But the race-mixture which was of evil to Russia has been of benefit to
+the rest of Europe. To borrow a metaphor from modern preventive
+medicine, the Russian marches between Europe and Asia have had their
+power of resistance to Yellow invasion strengthened by the infusion of
+some Yellow blood.
+
+A land of high steppes, very cold in winter, very hot in summer, and of
+great forests, which were difficult to traverse except where the rivers
+had cut highways, Russia was never so tempting to the early European
+civilisations as to lead to her area being definitely occupied and held
+as a province. Neither Greek nor Roman attempted much colonisation in
+Russia. By general consent the country was left to be a No-Man's-Land
+between Asia and Europe. Alexander, whose army penetrated through to
+India and actually brought back news of the existence of Australia,
+never marched far north into the interior of Russia. There the mixed
+tribes of Finns, Aryans, Semites, Mongols held a great gloomy country
+influenced little by civilisation, but often temporarily submerged by
+waves of barbarians from the Asiatic steppes. Still Western Europe in
+time made some little impression on the Russian mass. Byzantine culture
+impressed its mark on the Southern Slavs; Roman culture, after filtering
+through Germany, reached the Lithuanians of the north. In the twelfth
+century we hear of Arabian caravans making their way as far as the
+Baltic in search of amber.
+
+But more important to the Russian civilisation was the advent of the
+Normans in the ninth century. They consolidated White Russia during the
+ninth to the thirteenth centuries, appeared as warriors before the walls
+of Byzantium, and learned the Christian faith from the priests of the
+Eastern communion. (Russia has since been faithful always to the Greek
+Church.) That period was rich in national heroes, such as Rurik, Simeon
+and Truvor, and definitely set the current of Russian national life
+towards a place in the European family of nations. By the thirteenth
+century the White Russians, with their capital established at Moscow,
+were able to withstand for a while a new Mongol invasion. But they could
+not prevent Gengis Khan's lieutenants establishing themselves on the
+lower Volga, and the Grand Prince of Moscow had to be content to become
+a suzerain of the Grand Khan of Tartary.
+
+For three centuries Russia now, amid many troubles, prepared herself to
+take a place amongst European Powers. She was still more or less subject
+to the Asiatic. But she was not Asiatic, and her vast area stood between
+Europe and Asia and allowed the more Western nations to grow up free
+from interference from any Eastern people, except in the case of the
+great invasion of the Turks coming up from the south-east. How great was
+the service that Russia unconsciously did to civilisation during those
+centuries! If the Tartar had come with the Turk, or had followed him,
+the White Races and their civilisation might have been swept away.
+
+After being the bulwark of Europe for centuries Russia at last found her
+strength and became the avenger of the White Races. By the sixteenth
+century the Russian power had been consolidated under the Muscovite
+Czars, and a great nation, of which the governing class was altogether
+European, began to push back the Asiatic. From the sixteenth to the
+nineteenth centuries the Russian Power grew. The natural direction of
+expansion was southward. The new nation wanted a place in the sun, and
+looked longingly towards the Mediterranean. Only the Turk stood in the
+path, and for the Russian Czars war with the Turk had something of a
+religious attraction. It was the Cross against the Crescent. It was the
+champion of the Greek Church winning back the Byzantine Empire to
+Christian domination.
+
+For Russia to march south, driving the infidel from Europe, freeing the
+Greeks, establishing herself in Constantinople, winning warm-water ports
+and warm-climate fields, seemed to the Russian mind a national policy
+which served both God and Mammon. That it served God was no slight thing
+to the Russian people. They, then as now, cherished a simplicity and a
+strenuousness of faith which may be called "superstitious" or
+"beautiful and childlike" as the observer may wish, but which is
+undoubtedly sincere. "There has been only one Christian," wrote Heine.
+If he had known the Russians he would have qualified the gibe. They have
+a real faith, and it is an important factor in the making of their
+national policy which has to be taken into account.
+
+How much there was of religious impulse and how much of mere
+materialistic national ambition in Russia's move southward did not in
+the least concern other European Powers. Whatever its motive they
+considered the development dangerous. It threatened to give the Russian
+an overwhelming power, a paramountcy in Europe, and that could not be
+tolerated even if it had the most worthy of motives. Above all, Great
+Britain was alarmed. In the days of Elizabeth Great Britain had been a
+very good friend to Russia. But Russia was then no possible rival either
+on land or on the high seas. In the days of Victoria the position had
+changed. Russia still wore the laurels of her "victories" over Napoleon.
+She was credited with being the greatest military Power in the world,
+and credited also with a relentless and Machiavellian diplomacy that
+added vastly to the material resources of her armies and fleets.
+
+The Crimean War, with its resulting humiliating restrictions on Russian
+power in the Black Sea, taught Russia that Europe was determined to
+block her path south and preferred to buttress Turkish misrule than to
+permit Russian expansion. Baffled but still restless, Russia turned
+east and marched steadily towards the Pacific, with a side glance at the
+Persian Gulf and the Indian Ocean, which caused Great Britain fresh
+apprehension as to the fate of India.
+
+The progress of the Russian Power in Asia throughout the nineteenth
+century and its sudden check at the dawn of the twentieth century make
+one of the most dramatic chapters of the world's history. European
+rivalry had followed Russia on her march across Siberia, and the British
+Power in particular was alarmed to see the "Colossus of the North" with
+a naval base in the Pacific. Alarm was deepened when, after reaching the
+waters of the Pacific, Russia turned south, again eager for a warm-water
+port. At the time China seemed to be on the verge of dissolution as a
+national entity, and it seemed as though Russia were destined to win a
+great Asiatic Empire beside which even India would be a poor prize. In
+1885 Great Britain nearly went to war with Russia in the defence of the
+integrity of Corea.
+
+But the decisive check to Russia was to come from another source. The
+time had arrived for Asia to reassert some of her old warlike might. The
+island power of Japan, having shaken off the cumbrous and useless armour
+of medievalism, set herself sturdily in the path of modern progress and
+aspired to a place among the great nations of the earth. Japan saw
+clearly that Russia was the immediate enemy and prepared for a decisive
+war, with an uncanny determinedness and a scrupulous attention to every
+detail. Vast military and naval armaments had to be prepared. The
+necessary money had to be wrung from a bitterly poor population or
+borrowed at usurious rates. The political art with which that was done
+was not the least wonderful part of a great national achievement.
+Then--the weapons of war forged--it seemed good to Japanese
+statesmanship to flesh them on an easy victim. It fell to China's lot to
+teach the Japanese confidence in their new warlike arts, and to pay in
+the shape of an indemnity something towards the cost of the great
+struggle which Japan contemplated.
+
+Had Russia had that relentless and Machiavellian diplomacy with which
+she used to be credited, she would never have permitted the Japanese
+attack upon China. Constituting herself the champion of China, she would
+at one stroke have pushed back the growing power of Japan and
+established a claim to some suzerainty over the Celestial Empire. In
+carrying out her plans Japan had to take this chance, of Russia coming
+on top of her when she attacked China. She took the chance and won.
+Russia would have had to take the chance of a great European upheaval if
+she had interfered in the Japo-Chinese struggle. She did not take the
+chance, and allowed her rival to arm at China's expense to meet her.
+
+The Chinese war finished, Japan, equipped with a full war-chest, a
+veteran army and navy, was now ready to meet Russia. But she was faced
+by the difficulty that in meeting Russia she might also have to meet a
+European coalition, or the almost equally dangerous eventuality of a
+veto on the war on the part of the United States. Japan was convinced of
+her ability to fight Russia single-handed. Probably she would, in the
+last event, have decided to take the risks of any coalition and enter
+upon the war, since she had to fight Russia or perish as an expanding
+Power. But she determined in the first instance to attempt to obtain a
+safeguarding alliance.
+
+There are indications that Japan had in the first instance thoughts of
+the United States, of Germany and of Great Britain, as alternative
+allies. She thought of the United States because of her great financial
+strength, her appreciable naval power in the Pacific, and her likely
+value in keeping Great Britain out of the ring: of Germany because of
+her military power on the Russian frontier; of Great Britain because of
+her overwhelming naval power. Some held that Great Britain was only
+approached in the second place. Whether that were so or not, the British
+Power proved favourable.
+
+Japan was lucky in the moment of her approach. It had become obvious at
+that time to British statesmanship that the old ideal of "splendid
+isolation" was no longer tenable. The British Empire needed alliances,
+or at least safeguarding understandings with other nations. But it
+almost seemed as though the knowledge had come too late. Apparently
+there were no European friendships offering. Japan thus found Great
+Britain in a somewhat anxious mood, and an alliance was concluded
+between the Power which had hitherto followed a policy of splendid
+isolation and the _parvenu_ Power of the Far East. Japan was now all
+ready, and Russia was doomed to be ousted from her position as a great
+Power in the Pacific.
+
+A great deal of nonsense has been written and accepted as true
+concerning the war between Japan and Russia. Throughout the course of
+that war the Japanese took the best of care to put their own view of the
+case before the world. The "wonderful heroism," "the marvellous
+strategical and tactical skill," "the perfect medical and transport
+arrangements" of the Japanese forces received something more than their
+fair share of praise, because of the intelligent and perspicuous
+industry of the Japanese publicity agencies. The Japanese conducted a
+fine campaign. Their generals and admirals followed the best models in
+their dispositions. Both in the movements and in the sanitary regulation
+of the troops, the commanders were much helped by the habit of
+discipline of a nation inured to yield blind obedience to a god-born
+ruler. Still there was no inspired genius for war shown by the Japanese.
+Their movements were copied from the books. A well-led White army of
+much less strength would, I believe, have driven them ultimately from
+Corea into the sea. Their seeming want of power of original thought and
+their reliance on routine made their movements slow and flabby. They won
+by the inferiority of the enemy rather than by a great genius for
+warfare.
+
+The Russians on their side fought under the dispiriting conditions of
+having a well-trained enemy in front and a revolution behind. The heart
+of the nation was not with them, and the Russian autocracy was hampered
+at every turn by the internal disorders of European Russia. It seems
+probable that the autocracy hoped to solve in part a double problem by
+the mischievous ingenuity of drafting as many as possible of the
+discontented at home to the war abroad. That helped things in Russia,
+but added to the difficulties of the generals in Manchuria. Withal, the
+Russians put up a good fight. The early engagements were but rearguard
+actions, the Japanese having an enormous superiority of force, and the
+Russians striving to delay rather than to arrest their advance. It was
+not until Mukden that the single line of railway to Russia had brought
+General Kouropatkin a fair equality of force: and he had to contend then
+with the tradition of retreat which had been perforce established in his
+army, and with the growing paralysis of his home government confronted
+by a great revolutionary movement. Even so, Mukden was a defeat and not
+a rout.
+
+It is necessary to keep in mind these facts in order to arrive at a
+sound conclusion as to the future position of Russia in the Pacific. It
+is not safe to rule her out of the reckoning altogether. A second war,
+waged by a united Russia against Japan, would probably have a far
+different result, and would drive Japan off the Asiatic mainland were
+the ring to be kept clear. For the present, however, Russia is a Power
+with a great territory washed by the Pacific Ocean, but with no decisive
+voice in its destinies.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER III
+
+THE RISE OF JAPAN
+
+
+The misfortune of success has never been better exemplified in the
+world's history than in the results which have followed from the White
+Man's attempt to arouse Japan to an appreciation of the blessings of
+European civilisation. Our fathers and grandfathers of the middle
+nineteenth century battered at the barred and picturesque doors of the
+land of the Mikado with a vague idea that there was plunder, trade or
+some other tangible benefit to be got from dragging the quaint Yellow
+Recluse out of his retirement. Without a foreboding, every civilised
+Power that had a fighting ship and the time to spare, took some part in
+urging Japan to awake and be modern. A great deal of gunpowder was
+burned before the little Asiatic nation stirred. Then she seemed in a
+flash to learn the whole lesson of our combative civilisation. Naval
+strategy; the forging of trade-marks; military organisation;
+appreciation of the value of cheap labour and of machinery in industry;
+aseptic surgery; resolute and cunning diplomacy--all these were suddenly
+added to the mental equipment of an Asiatic people, and all used in
+reprisal against Europe. To-day Japan is the greatest warrior Power in
+the Pacific, and is also a powerful factor in that war for markets which
+is not the least important manifestation of race rivalry. As sailors,
+soldiers, merchants and factory hands, the Japanese are unmistakably
+awake.
+
+With a discipline impossible of achievement by a European race, the
+Japanese people pursued the methods of eclectic philosophy in their
+nation-making. They copied the best from the army systems of Germany and
+France: duplicated the British naval discipline: adopted what they
+thought most efficient of the industrial machinery of Europe and
+America, including a scientific tariff. Nothing that seemed likely to be
+of advantage was neglected. Even the question of religion was seriously
+considered, and these awakened people were at one time on the point of a
+simultaneous national adoption of some form of Christianity. But they
+were convinced on reflection that nothing of Europe's success in this
+world was due to religion; and, unconcerned for the moment with anything
+that was not of this world, decided to forbear from "scrapping"
+Shintoism and sending it to the rubbish heap where reposed the
+two-handled sword of the Sumarai.[10]
+
+This miracle of the complete transformation of a race has been
+accomplished in half a century. Within the memory of some living people
+the Japanese were content with a secluded life on their hungry islands,
+where they painted dainty pictures, wove quaint and beautiful fabrics,
+cultivated children and flowers in a spirit of happy artistry, and
+pursued war among themselves as a sport, with enthusiasm certainly, but
+without any excessive cruelty, if consideration be given to Asiatic
+ideas of death and the Asiatic degree of sensitiveness to torture. They
+were without any ideas of foreign conquest. The world had no respect for
+Japan then. Specimens of Japanese painting and pottery were admired by a
+few connoisseurs in little corners of the world (such as Bond Street,
+London), and that was all. Now, Japan having learned the art of modern
+warfare, we know also that the Japanese are great artists, great
+philosophers, great poets. Of a sudden a nation has jumped from being
+naturally chosen as the most absurd and harmless vehicle for a Gilbert
+satire to that of being "the honoured ally" of Great Britain, in respect
+to whose susceptibilities that satire should be suppressed.
+
+But our belated respect for the artistry of the Japanese gives little,
+if any, explanation of the miracle of their sudden transformation. The
+Chinese are greater artists, greater philosophers, superior
+intellectually and physically. They heard at an even earlier date the
+same harsh summons from Europe to wake up. But it was neglected, and,
+whatever the outcome of the revolutionary movement now progressing, the
+Chinese are not yet a Power to be taken into present consideration as
+regards the Pacific Ocean or world-politics generally. The most patient
+search gives no certain guidance as to the causes of Japan's sudden
+advance to a position amongst the world's great nations. If we could
+accurately determine those causes it would probably give a valuable clue
+to the study of the psychology of races. But the effort is in vain. An
+analogy is often drawn between the Japanese and the British. Except that
+both were island races, there are few points of resemblance. The British
+islands, inhabited originally by the Gauls, had their human stock
+enriched from time to time by the Romans, the Danes, the Teutons, the
+Normans. The British type, in part Celtic, in part Roman, in part
+Danish, in part Anglo-Saxon, in part Norman, was naturally a
+hard-fighting, stubborn, adventurous race fitted for the work of
+exploration and colonisation.
+
+But the Japanese had, so far as can be ascertained, little advantage
+from cross-breeding. Probably they were originally a Tartar race. The
+primitive inhabitants of the islands were ancestors of the Hairy Ainus,
+who still survive in small numbers. Like the aboriginals of Australia,
+the Ainus were a primitive rather than a degraded type, closely allied
+to the ancestors of the European races. Probably the Tartar invaders who
+colonised Japan came by way of Corea. But after their advent there was
+no new element introduced to give the human race in Japan a fresh
+stimulus; and that original Tartar stock, though vigorous and warlike,
+has never proved elsewhere any great capacity for organisation.
+
+In the sixth century of the Christian Era, Chinese civilisation and the
+Buddhistic religion came to the Japanese, who at the time had about the
+same standard of culture as the Red Indians of the American continent
+when the _Mayflower_ sailed. For some four centuries the Japanese island
+race was tributary to China, and during that time there was evolved a
+national religion, Shintoism, which probably represented the old Tartar
+faith modified by Chinese philosophy. In the eighth and subsequent
+centuries, Japan in its national organisation very closely resembled
+feudal Europe. As in Europe, there was a service tenure for the land; a
+system by which organised groups, or KO's, became answerable
+collectively for the deeds of each member of the group; and, as in
+feudal Europe, Church and State made rival claims to supreme power.
+
+Indiscriminate fighting between rival feudal lords, a constant strife
+between the Shoguns, representing the priestly power, and the Mikados,
+representing the civil power, make up the islands' history for century
+after century. Through it all there is no gleam of light on the
+evolution of the latent powers which were to come to maturity, as in an
+hour, during the nineteenth century. Japan appeared to be an average
+example of a semi-civilised country which would never evolve to a much
+higher state because of the undisciplined quarrelsomeness of its people.
+
+In the sixteenth century Europe first made the acquaintance of Japan.
+Italian, Portuguese, Dutch, Spanish, British traders and explorers
+visited the country. St Francis Xavier established missions there and
+baptized many in the Christian faith. After two centuries of general
+toleration, with intervals of welcome and yet other intervals of
+resolute massacre, in 1741 the last of the Europeans were ordered out of
+the islands, the Japanese having decided that they wanted neither the
+religion, the trade, nor the friendship of the White Man. The same
+prohibitions were applied at the same time to Chinese traders. A
+resolute policy of exclusiveness was adopted.
+
+Japan seems to have learned absolutely nothing from her first contact
+with European civilisation. She settled down to the old policy of
+rigorous exclusiveness, and to a renewal of her tribal and religious
+warfare, in the midst of which, like a strange flower in a rocky cleft,
+flourished a dainty æstheticism. The nineteenth century thus dawned on
+Japan, a bitterly poor country, made poorer by the devotion of much of
+her energies to internal warfare and by the devotion of some of her
+scanty supply of good land to the cultivation of flowers instead of
+grain. The observer of the day could hardly have imagined more
+unpromising material for the making of the modern Japanese nation,
+organised with Spartan thoroughness for naval, military and industrial
+warfare.
+
+The United States in 1853 led the way in the successful attempt of White
+civilisation to open up trade relations with Japan. The method was
+rude; and it was followed by resolute offers of "friendship," backed by
+armed threats, from Great Britain, France, Russia and Portugal. The
+Japanese wanted none of them. The feeling of the people was distinctly
+anti-foreign. They wished to be left to their flowers and their family
+feuds. But the White Man insisted. In 1864 a combination of Powers
+forced the Straits of Shimonoseki. The Japanese were compelled by these
+and other outrages to a feeling of national unity. In the face of a
+foreign danger domestic feuds were forgotten. By 1869 Japan had
+organised her policy on a basis which has kept internal peace ever since
+(with the exception of the revolt of the Satsuma in 1884), and she had
+resolved on fighting out with Russia the issue of supremacy in the
+Pacific. Within a quarter of a century the new nation had established
+herself as a Power by the sensational defeat, on land and sea, of China.
+The Peace of Shimonoseki extended her territory to Formosa and the
+Pescadores, and filled her treasury with the great war indemnity of
+£57,000,000. She then won, too, a footing on the Asiatic mainland, but
+was for the time being cheated of that by the interference of Europe, an
+interference which was not repeated when, later, having defeated Russia
+in war and having won an alliance with Great Britain, she finally
+annexed Corea.
+
+From the Peace of Shimonoseki in 1895 the progress of Japan has been
+marvellous. In 1900 she appeared as one of the civilised Powers which
+invaded China with a view to impress upon that Empire the duty a
+semi-civilised Power owed to the world of maintaining internal order. In
+1902 she entered into a defensive and offensive alliance with Great
+Britain, by which she was guaranteed a ring clear from interference on
+the part of a European combination in the struggle with Russia which she
+contemplated. The treaty was a triumph of diplomatic wisdom. Appearing
+to get little, Japan in real truth got all that her circumstances
+required. A treaty binding Great Britain to come to her aid in any war
+would have been hopeless to ask for, and not very useful when obtained,
+for the Japanese attack on Russia might then have been the signal for a
+general European war in which possibly a European combination would have
+crippled Great Britain and then turned its united attention to the
+destruction of Japan's nascent power. A treaty which kept the ring clear
+for a single-handed struggle with Russia was better than that risk. In
+return Japan gave nothing in effect except a pledge to make war on her
+own immediate enemy, Russia, for the assistance of Great Britain if
+necessity arose.
+
+The conditions created by the Anglo-Japanese treaty of 1902 developed
+naturally to the Battle of Mukden, the culminating point of a campaign
+in which for the first time for many years the Yellow Race vanquished
+the White Race in war. That Battle of Mukden not only established
+Japan's position in the world. It made the warlike awakening of China
+inevitable, and restored to the daylight again the long-hidden yet
+always existing arrogance of Asia. Asia has ever nurtured an insolence
+beside which any White Race pride is insignificant. That fact is made
+patent during recurring epochs of history. The Persian Darius sent to
+the Greeks for earth and water, symbols to acknowledge that "Persia
+ruled the land and the oceans." The Huns later looked upon the White Men
+whom they conquered as something lower than animals. The Turks, another
+great Asiatic race to war against Europe, could compare the White Man
+only to that unclean beast, the dog. The first European ambassadors who
+went to China were forced to crawl with abject humility to the feet of
+the Chinese dignitaries. In his secret heart--of which the European mind
+knows so little--the Asiatic, whether he be Japanese, Chinese, or
+Indian, holds a deep disdain for the White. The contempt we feel for
+them is returned more than one hundredfold.
+
+Mukden brought that disdain out of its slumber. The battle was therefore
+an event of history more important than any since the fall of
+Constantinople. For very many years the European hegemony had been
+unquestioned. True, as late as 1795, Napoleon is credited with having
+believed that the power of the Grand Turk might be revived and an
+Ottoman suzerainty of Europe secured. But it was only a dream; more than
+half a century before that the doom of the Turk, who had been the most
+serious foe to Christian Europe, was sealed. From 1711 to 1905,
+whatever questions of supremacy arose among the different European
+Powers, there was never any doubt as to the superiority of the European
+race over all coloured races. The White Man moved from one easy conquest
+to another. In Asia, India, China, Persia and Japan were in turn
+humbled. Africa was made the slave-farm of the White Race.
+
+Now in the twentieth century at Mukden the White Race supremacy was
+again challenged. It was a long-dormant though not a new issue which was
+thus raised. From the times beyond which the memory of man does not
+stretch, Asia had repeatedly threatened Europe. The struggle of the
+Persian Empire to smother the Greek republics is the first of the
+invasions which has been accurately recorded by historians; but probably
+it had been preceded by many others. The waves of war that followed were
+many. The last was the Ottoman invasion in the fourteenth century, which
+brought the banners of Asia right up to the walls of Vienna, swept the
+Levant of Christian ships, and threatened even the Adriatic; and which
+has left the Turk still in the possession of Constantinople. But by the
+beginning of the eighteenth century the fear of the Turks gaining the
+mastery of Europe had practically disappeared, and after then the
+Europeans treated the coloured races as subject to them, and their
+territories as liable to partition whenever the method of division among
+rival White nations could be agreed upon.
+
+Mukden made a new situation. The European Powers were prompt to
+recognise the fact. Doubt even came to Great Britain whether the part
+she had played as foster-mother to this Asiatic infant of wonderful
+growth had been a wise one. A peace was practically forced upon Japan, a
+peace which secured for her at the moment nothing in the way of
+indemnity, but little in the way of territorial rights, and not even the
+positive elimination of her enemy from the Asiatic coast. True, she has
+since won Corea on the basis of that peace and has made secure certain
+suzerain rights in Manchuria, but this harvest had to be garnered by
+resolute diplomacy and by maintaining a naval and military expenditure
+after the war which called for an extreme degree of self-abnegation from
+her people.
+
+If the present position of affairs could be accepted as permanent, there
+would be no "problem of the Pacific." That ocean would be Japan's
+home-water. Holding her rugged islands with a veteran army and navy; so
+established on the mainland of Asia as to be able to make a flank
+movement on China; she is the one "Power in being" of the Pacific
+littoral. But as already stated, the verdict of the war with Russia
+cannot be taken as final. And soon the United States will come into the
+Pacific with overwhelming force on the completion of the Panama
+Canal--an event which is already foreshadowed in a modification of the
+Anglo-Japanese treaty to relieve Great Britain of the possible
+responsibility of going to war with America on behalf of Japan. The
+permanence of the Japanese position as the chief Power of the Pacific
+cannot therefore be presumed. The very suddenness with which her
+greatness has been won is in itself a prompting to the suspicion that it
+will not last. It has been a mushroom growth, and there are many
+indications that the forcing process by which a Power has been so
+quickly raised has exhausted the culture bed. In the character of her
+population Japan is in some respects exceedingly rich. The events of the
+past few years have shown them to possess great qualities of heroism,
+patience and discipline. But they have yet to prove that they possess
+powers of initiative, without which they must fail ultimately in
+competition with peoples who make one conquest over Nature a
+stepping-stone to another. And it is not wholly a matter of race
+prejudice that makes many observers view with suspicion the "staying
+power" of the character of a nation which thinks so differently from the
+average European in matters of sex, in commercial honesty, and in the
+obligations of good faith. Many of those who have travelled in the East,
+or have done business with Japan, profess a doubt that an enduring
+greatness can be built upon a national character which runs contrary in
+most matters to our accepted ideas of ethics. They profess to see in the
+present greatness of achievement marking Japanese national life a "flash
+in the pan"--the astonishing precocity and quickness of progress of that
+type of doomed infant which quickly flowers and quickly fades in the
+European slums and which is known as "The Mongol" to medical science
+because of a facial peculiarity which identifies it infallibly. "The
+Mongol" of European child-life comes to an astonishingly early maturity
+of brain: its smartness is marvellous. But it is destined always to an
+early end from an ineradicable internal weakness which is, in some
+strange way, the cause of its precocious cleverness.
+
+Whether the Japanese cleverness and progressiveness will last or not,
+the nation has to be credited with them now as a live asset. But apart
+from the national character the nation possesses little of "natural
+capital." There is practically no store of precious metals; a poor
+supply of the useful minerals; small area of good land; and the local
+fisheries have been exploited with such energy for many generations that
+they cannot possibly be expanded in productivity now. The statesmen of
+New Japan have certainly won some overseas Empire as an addition to the
+resources available for a sound fabric of national greatness. But what
+has been won is quite insufficient to weigh in the scale against the
+"natural capital" of almost any of Japan's rivals in the Pacific.
+
+For want of territory to colonise under her own flag, Japan has lost
+many subjects to alien flags. Japanese settlements of some strength
+exist on the Pacific coast of America, in the Hawaiian Islands, and in
+parts of China. There is little doubt that Japanese policy has hoped
+that in some cases at least her flag would follow her nationals. Talk,
+not all of it quite irresponsible, has credited Japan with definite
+designs on many Pacific settlements, especially the Hawaiian Group where
+her nationals to-day outnumber any other single element of the
+population. But there are now no islands or territories without a
+protecting flag. Even when, as was said to be the case with Mexico and
+another Latin-American country, a weak and friendly nation seems to
+offer the chance of annexation of territory following a peaceable
+penetration, there is the power of the United States to interpose a
+veto. Japan thus cannot add to her natural resources without a war; and
+she has not, it would seem, sufficient natural resources to back up a
+war with the enemies she would have to meet now in the Pacific.
+
+If she were to put aside dreams of conquest and Empire, has Japan a
+sound future in the Pacific as a thriving minor manufacturing and
+trading power? I must say that it seems to me doubtful. The nation has
+drunk of the wine of life and could hardly settle down to a humdrum
+existence. No peaceable policy could allow of a great prosperity, for
+the reasons of natural poverty already stated. It would be a life of
+drudgery without the present dream of glory. To study the Japanese
+emigrant away from his own country is to understand that he has not the
+patience for such a life. In British Columbia, in California, in Hawaii,
+the same conclusion is come to by European fellow-residents, that the
+Japanese worker is arrogant, unruly, unreliable. In Japan itself there
+are signs that the industrial population will not tolerate for ever a
+life of very poor living and very hard working if there is not a
+definite and immediate benefit of national glory promised.
+
+The position of Japan in the Pacific seems to me, then, that she cannot
+reasonably expect to win in a struggle for its mastery: and yet that she
+will inevitably be forced to enter into that struggle. A recent report
+in a Tokio paper stated: "At a secret session of the Budget Commission
+on February 3, Baron Saito, Minister of Marine, declared that the
+irreducible minimum of naval expansion was eight battleships of the
+super-Dreadnought class, and eight armoured cruisers of the same class,
+which must be completed by 1920, construction being begun in 1913. The
+cost is estimated at £35,000,000." And the paper (_Asahi Shimbun_) went
+on to hint at the United States as the Power which had to be confronted.
+That is only one of very many indications of Japanese national feeling.
+She has gone too far on the path to greatness to be able to retire
+safely into obscurity. She must "see it through." Feats of strength far
+nearer to the miraculous than those which marked her astonishing victory
+over Russia would be necessary to give Japan the slightest chance of
+success in the next struggle for the hegemony of the Pacific.
+
+FOOTNOTES:
+
+[10] Since writing the above, the Japanese Government has revived in a
+modified form the proposal for a State adoption, in part at least, of
+the Christian religion. A communication to the Japanese Press on 20th
+January 1912 from the Minister for Home Affairs stated:--"In order to
+bring about an affiliation of the three religions, it is necessary to
+connect religion with the State more closely, so as to give it
+(religion) added dignity, and thus impress upon the public the necessity
+of attaching greater importance to religious matters. The culture of
+national ethics can be perfected by education combined with religion. At
+present moral doctrines are inculcated by education alone, but it is
+impossible to inculcate firmly fair and upright ideas in the minds of
+the nation unless the people are brought into touch with the fundamental
+conception known as God, Buddha, or Heaven, as taught in the religions.
+It is necessary, therefore, that education and religion should go hand
+in hand to build up the basis of the national ethics, and it is,
+therefore, desirable that a scheme should be devised to bring education
+and religion into closer relations to enable them to promote the
+national welfare. All religions agree in their fundamental principles,
+but the present-day conceptions of morals differ according to the time
+and place and according to the different points of view. It is ever
+evolving. It may, therefore, be necessary for Shintoism and Buddhism to
+carry their steps towards Western countries. Christianity ought also to
+step out of the narrow circle within which it is confined, and endeavour
+to adapt itself to the national sentiments and customs, and to conform
+to the national polity in order to ensure greater achievements. Japan
+has adopted a progressive policy in politics and economics in order to
+share in the blessings of Western civilisation. It is desirable to bring
+Western thought and faith into harmonious relationship with Japanese
+thought and faith in the spiritual world."
+
+This proposal to change in one act the religion of a nation "to ensure
+greater achievements" will perhaps do something to support the
+contention, which will be put forward later, that a nation which takes
+such a curious view of life is not capable of a real and lasting
+greatness, however wonderful may be its feats of imitation.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER IV
+
+CHINA AND THE TEEMING MILLIONS OF ASIA
+
+
+China is potentially the greatest Power on the western littoral of the
+Pacific. Her enormous territory has vast agricultural and mineral
+resources. Great rivers give easy access to some of the best of her
+lands. A huge population has gifts of patient labour and craftsmanship
+that make the Chinaman a feared competitor by every White worker in the
+world. In courage he is not inferior to the Japanese, as General Gordon
+found. In intelligence, in fidelity and in that common sense which
+teaches "honesty to be the best policy," the Chinaman is far superior to
+the Japanese.
+
+The Chinaman has been outstripped up to the present by the Japanese in
+the acquirement of the arts of Western civilisation, not because of his
+inferior mind, but because of his deeper disdain. He has stood aside
+from the race for world supremacy on modern lines, not as one who is too
+exhausted for effort, but as one who is too experienced to try. China
+has in the past experimented with many of the vaunted ideas and methods
+of the new civilisation, from gunpowder to a peerage chosen by
+competitive examination, and long ago came to the conclusion that all
+was vanity and vexation of spirit.
+
+The Chinaman is not humble; not content to take an inferior place in the
+world. He has all the arrogance of Asia. The name of "Heavenly Kingdom"
+given to the land by its inhabitants, the grandiose titles assumed by
+its rulers, the degrading ceremonies which used to be exacted from
+foreigners visiting China as confessions of their inferiority to the
+Celestial race, show an extravagant pride of birth. In the thirteenth
+century, when Confucian China, alike with Christian Europe, had to fear
+the growing power of the fanatical Mohammedans, a treaty of alliance was
+suggested between France and China: and the negotiations were broken off
+because of the claim of China that France should submit to her as a
+vassal, by way of preliminary. The Chinaman's idea of his own importance
+has not abated since then. His attitude towards the "foreign devils" is
+still one of utter contempt. But at present that contempt has not the
+backing of naval and military strength, and so in practice counts for
+nothing.
+
+China cherishes the oldest of living civilisations. Her legendary
+history dates back to 2404 B.C., her actual history to 875 B.C., when a
+high state of mental culture had been reached, and a very advanced
+material civilisation also; though some caution is necessary in
+accepting the statements that at that time China made use of gunpowder,
+of the mariner's compass, and of printing type. But certainly weaving,
+pottery, metal-working, and pictorial art flourished. The noble height
+to which philosophy had reached centuries before the Christian Era is
+shown by the records of Confucianism and Taoism. Political science had
+been also cultivated, and there were then Chinese Socialists to claim
+that "everyone should sow and reap his own harvest."
+
+There seem to have been at least two great parent races of the present
+population of the Chinese Empire--a race dwelling in the valleys and
+turning its thoughts to peace and the arts, and a race dwelling on the
+Steppes and seeking joy in war. It was the Tartar and Mongol tribes of
+the Steppes which sent wave after wave of attack westward towards
+Europe, under chiefs the greatest of whom was Gengis Khan. But it was
+the race of the valleys, the typical Chinese, stolid, patient,
+laborious, who established ultimate supremacy in the nation, gradually
+absorbing the more unruly elements and producing modern China with its
+contempt for military glory. But the Mongols by their wars left a deep
+impression on the Middle Ages, founding kingdoms which were tributary to
+China, in Persia, Turkestan and as far west as the Russian Volga.
+
+The earliest record of European relations with China was in the seventh
+century, when the Emperor Theodosius sent an embassy to the Chinese
+Emperor. In the thirteenth century Marco Polo visited the Court of the
+Grand Khan at Pekin, and for a while fairly constant communication
+between Europe and China seems to have been maintained, the route
+followed being by caravan across Asia. Christian missionaries settled in
+China, and in 1248 there is a record of the Pope and the Grand Khan
+exchanging greetings.
+
+When towards the end of the fourteenth century the Ming dynasty
+supplanted the Mongol dynasty, communication with Europe was broken off
+for more than a century. But in 1581 Jesuit missionaries again entered
+China, and the Manchu dynasty of the seventeenth century at first
+protected the Christian faith and seemed somewhat to favour Western
+ideas. But in the next century the Christian missions were persecuted
+and almost extirpated, to be revived in 1846. Since that date "the
+mailed fist" of Europe has exacted from the Chinese a forced tolerance
+of European trade and missions.
+
+But Chinese prejudice against foreign intrusion was given no reason for
+abatement by the conduct of the European Powers, as shown, for example,
+in the Opium War of 1840. That prejudice, smouldering for long, broke
+out in the savage fanaticism of the Boxer outbreak of 1900, which led to
+a joint punitive expedition by the European Powers, in conjunction with
+Japan. China had the mortification then of being scourged not only by
+the "white devils" but also by an upstart Yellow Man, who was her near
+and her despised neighbour. All China that knew of the expedition to
+Pekin of 1900 and understood its significance, seems to have resolved
+then on some change of national policy involving the acceptance of
+European methods, in warfare at least. Responding to the stimulus of
+Japan's flaunting of her success in acquiring the ways of the European,
+China began to consider whether there was not after all something useful
+to be learned from the Western barbarians. The older Asiatic country has
+a deep contempt for the younger: but proof of Japan's superior position
+in the world's estimation had become too convincing to be disregarded.
+China saw Japan treated with respect, herself with contumely. She found
+herself humiliated in war and in diplomacy by the upstart relative. The
+reason was plain, the conclusion equally plain. China began to arm and
+lay the foundations of a modern naval and military system. The national
+spirit began to show, too, in industry. Chinese capital claimed its
+right and its duty to develop the resources of China.
+
+Early in the twentieth century "modern ideas" had so far established
+themselves in China that Grand Councillor Chang Chih-tung was able,
+without the step being equivalent to suicide, to memorialise the Throne
+with these suggestions for reform:--
+
+1. That the Government supply funds for free education.
+
+2. That the Army and Navy be reorganised without delay.
+
+3. That able and competent officials be secured for Government services.
+
+4. That Princes of the blood be sent abroad to study.
+
+5. That arsenals for manufacturing arms, ammunition, and other weapons
+of war, and docks and shipbuilding yards for constructing warships, be
+established without delay.
+
+6. That only Chinese capital be invested in railway and mining enterprises.
+
+7. That a date be given for the granting of a Constitution.
+
+Chang Chih-tung may be taken as the representative of the new school of
+Chinese thought. His book _Chuen Hsueh Pien_ (China's Only Hope) is the
+Bible of the moderate reformers. He states in that book:--
+
+"In order to render China powerful, and at the same time preserve our
+own institutions, it is absolutely necessary that we should utilise
+Western knowledge. But unless Chinese learning is made the basis of
+education, and a Chinese direction given to thought, the strong will
+become anarchists, and the weak slaves. Thus the latter end will be
+worse than the former.... Travel abroad for one year is more profitable
+than study at home for five years. It has been well said that seeing is
+a hundred times better than hearing. One year's study in a foreign
+institution is better than three years in a Chinese. Mencius remarks
+that a man can learn foreign things best abroad; but much more benefit
+can be derived from travel by older and experienced men than by the
+young, and high mandarins can learn more than petty officials.... Cannot
+China follow the _viam mediam_, and learn a lesson from Japan? As the
+case stands to-day, study by travel can be better done in that country
+than in Europe, for the following reasons.... If it were deemed
+advisable, some students could afterwards be sent to Europe for a fuller
+course."
+
+After the Russian-Japanese War Chinese students went to Japan in
+thousands, and these students laid the foundation of the Republican
+school of reformers which is the greatest of the forces striving for
+mastery in China to-day. The flow of students to Japan was soon checked
+by the then Chinese Government, for the reason that Republican
+sentiments seemed to be absorbed in the atmosphere of Japan, despite the
+absolutism of the Government there. In the United States and in Europe
+the Chinese scholar was able, however, to absorb Western knowledge
+without acquiring Republican opinions! There is some suggestion of a
+grim jest on the part of the Chinese in holding to this view. It recalls
+Boccaccio's story of the Christian who despaired of the conversion of
+his Jewish friend when he knew that he contemplated a visit to Rome. The
+Chinese seemed to argue that a safe precaution against acquiring
+Republican views is to live in a Republican country. Chinese confidence
+in the educational advantages offered by the United States has been
+justified by results. American-educated Chinese are prominent in every
+phase of the Reform movement in China, except Republican agitation. The
+first Reform Foreign Minister in China, the first great native Chinese
+railway builder, the first Chinese women doctors, the greatest native
+Chinese banker, are examples of American training.
+
+It would be outside the scope of this work to attempt to deal in any way
+exhaustively with the present position in China. What the ultimate
+outcome will be, it is impossible to forecast. At present a Republic is
+in process of formation, after the baby Emperor through the Dowager
+Empress had promulgated an edict stating:
+
+"We, the Emperor, have respectfully received the following Edict from
+her Majesty the Dowager:
+
+"In consequence of the uprising of the Republican Army, to which the
+people in the Provinces have responded, the Empire seethed liked a
+boiling cauldron, and the people were plunged in misery. Yuan Shih-kai,
+therefore, commanded the despatch of Commissioners to confer with the
+Republicans with a view to a National Assembly deciding the form of
+government. Months elapsed without any settlement being reached. It is
+now evident that the majority of the people favour a Republic, and, from
+the preference of the people's hearts, the will of Heaven is
+discernible. How could we oppose the desires of millions for the glory
+of one family? Therefore, the Dowager Empress and the Emperor hereby
+vest the sovereignty in the people. Let Yuan Shih-kai organise with
+full powers a provisional Republican Government, and let him confer with
+the Republicans on the methods of establishing a union which shall
+assure the peace of the Empire, and of forming a great Republic, uniting
+Manchus, Chinese, Mongols, Mohammedans, and Tibetans."
+
+But all men whom I have met who have had chances of studying Chinese
+conditions at first hand, agree that the Chinese national character is
+not favourable to the permanent acceptance of Republican ideas. If there
+is one thing which seems fixed in the Chinese character it is
+ancestor-worship, and that is essentially incompatible with
+Republicanism.[3] But what seems absolutely certain is that a new China
+is coming to birth. Slowly the great mass is being leavened with a new
+spirit.
+
+Now a new China, armed with modern weapons, would be a terrible engine
+of war. A new China organised to take the field in modern industry would
+be a formidable rival in neutral markets to any existing nation. The
+power of such a new China put at the disposal of Japan could at least
+secure all Asia for the Asiatics and hold the dominant position in the
+Northern Pacific. Possibly it could establish a world supremacy, unless
+such a Yellow union forced White Races to disregard smaller issues and
+unite against a common foe. Fortunately a Chinese-Japanese alliance is
+not at present in the least likely. The Chinese hatred of the Japanese
+is of long standing and resolute, though it is sometimes dissembled. The
+Japanese have an ill-concealed contempt for the Chinese. Conflict is
+more likely than alliance between the two kindred races.
+
+Further, the Chinese will probably move far more slowly on any path of
+aggression than did the Japanese, for they are intensely pacific. For
+many generations they have been taught to regard the soldier as
+contemptible, the recluse scholar as admirable. Ideas of overseas Empire
+on their part are tempered by the fanatic wish of every Chinaman that
+his bones should rest in his native land. It will only be in response to
+enormous pressure that China will undertake a policy of adventure.
+
+That pressure is now being engendered from within and without. From
+without it is being engendered by insolent robberies of territory and
+other outrages on the part of foreign Powers. More particularly of late
+has the modern arrogance of Japan impressed upon the old-fashioned
+arrogance of China the fact that the grave scholar, skilled in all the
+lore of Confucius, is a worthless atom beside a drilled coolie who can
+shoot straight. From within the pressure is being engendered by the
+great growth of population. For some time past infanticide has been
+common in China as a Malthusian check. Now European missionaries seek to
+discourage that. European medicine further sets itself to teach the
+Yellow Man to cope with plague, smallpox, and cholera, while European
+engineering abates the terrors of flood and of crop failure.
+
+Machiavelli would have found prompting for some grim aphorism in this
+curious eagerness of Europe to teach the teeming millions of Asia to rid
+themselves of checks on their greater growth, and thus to increase the
+pressure of the Asiatic surplus seeking an outlet at the expense of
+Europe. It is in respect to the urgent demand for room for an
+overcrowding population that there exists alike to China and Japan the
+strongest stimulus to warlike action in the Pacific. China in particular
+wants colonies, even if they be only such colonies as provide
+opportunities for her coolies to amass enough wealth to return in old
+age to China. From the fertile basin of China there have been overflow
+waves of humanity ever since there has been any record of history.
+Before the era of White settlement in the Pacific the Chinese population
+had pushed down the coast of Asia and penetrated through a great part of
+the Malay Archipelago, an expansion not without its difficulties, for
+the fierce Malay objected to the patient Chinaman and often the Chinaman
+remained to fertilise but not to colonise the alien soil. By some
+Providential chance neither the Chinaman nor the Japanese ever reached
+to Australia in the early days of the Pacific, though there are records
+of Japanese fishermen getting as far as the Hawaiian Group, a much more
+hazardous journey. If the Asiatics had reached Australia the great
+island would doubtless have become the southern province of Asia, for
+its native population could have offered no resistance to the feeblest
+invader.
+
+In the past, however, the great natural checks kept the Asiatic
+populations within some limits. Internal wars, famines, pestilences,
+infanticide--all claimed their toll. Nature exercised on man the checks
+which exist throughout the whole animal kingdom, and which in some
+regions of biology are so stern that it is said that only one adult
+survives of 5,000,000 spawn of a kind of oyster. Now European influence
+is steadily directed in Asia to removing all obstacles to the growth of
+population. When the Asiatics wish to fight among themselves Europe is
+inclined to interfere (as at the time of the Boxer outbreak in China),
+on the ground that a state of disorder cannot be tolerated. In India
+internecine warfare is strictly prohibited by the paramount Power. In
+Japan all local feuds have been healed by pressure from Europe and
+America, and the fighting power of the people concentrated for external
+warfare.
+
+Not alone by checking internal warfare does Europe insist on encouraging
+the growth of the Asiatic myriads. European science suggests railways,
+which make famine less terrible; flood prevention works which save
+millions of lives. European moralists make war on such customs as the
+suicide of young widows and the exposure for death of female children.
+But, far more efficacious than all, European scientists come forward to
+teach to the Asiatics aseptic surgery, inoculation, and the rest of the
+wisdom of preventive and curative medicine. Sometimes Nature is stronger
+than science. The Plague, for instance, still claims its millions. But
+even the Plague diminishes before modern medical science.
+
+In his _Health and Empire_ (1911), Dr Francis Fremantle tells of the
+campaign against plague in India. He writes:
+
+"The death-rate from plague in 1904 in the Lahore and Amritsar districts
+in which I worked was 25 per 1000. Over 1,000,000 Indians died of plague
+in 1904, over 1,000,000 in 1905; in 1906, 332,000, and it was thought
+the end was in sight. But 640,000 died in the first four months of 1907;
+in 1908, 321,000 died; in 1909 only 175,000, but in 1910 again very
+nearly 500,000, and this year more than ever. The United Provinces had
+barely been reached by the epidemic in 1904; now with a population equal
+to that of the United Kingdom, they have been losing 20,000 every week;
+and the Punjab 34,000 in one week, 39,000, 47,000, 54,000, 60,000 and so
+on--over 430,000 in the first four months of this year in a population
+of 25,000,000. Imagine Great Britain and Ireland losing the same
+proportion--over 1,000,000 from plague in half a year. And India as a
+whole has in fifteen years lost over 7,000,000 from plague. Why wonder
+at her unrest?
+
+"What, then, can the Government do? Extermination of rats is impossible;
+disinfection on a large scale is impracticable; evacuation of villages
+cannot be done voluntarily on any universal scale; the Government will
+not apply compulsion, and such evacuation is quite useless without a
+rigid cordon of police or military that will prevent communication
+between one infected village and others not yet infected. A cordon, it
+has been proved over and over again, cannot be maintained; the native
+who wishes to pass it has only to present some official with a cautious
+rupee. Extermination of rats in an Asiatic country has often failed; but
+here is without a shadow of doubt the key to the problem. The methods
+formerly adopted had been to give a capitation grant for every rat
+brought to the appointed place, and before long it was found, for
+instance in Bombay, that an extensive trade had grown up in the breeding
+of rats, whereby, at a few annas apiece from the Government, many
+families were able to sustain a comfortable existence.... But since
+sentence on the rat-flea has been pronounced for the murder of 7,000,000
+persons and over, the best method for his extermination will not be far
+off.
+
+"It is often debated whether even half-measures are worth being
+continued. Professor W. J. Simpson, in his exhaustive monograph on the
+plague, and in 1907 in his _Croonian Lectures_, has shown how in history
+epidemics of plague have come and gone in different countries with long
+intervals between them, often of one hundred and thirty to one hundred
+and fifty years. In the eighteenth century, for instance, India seems to
+have been almost free of the plague, but early in the seventeenth
+century it suffered severely. The present epidemic is assuming, as far
+as we can trust previous records, unprecedented proportions; probably
+after a few years it will die out again.
+
+"An occasional cynic may argue that, since we have saved so many
+thousands of lives annually from famine and wars, it may be just as well
+to let the plague take their place. To such a pessimistic and inhuman
+conclusion it is impossible for one moment to submit. It may be that for
+economic reasons some parts of the Indian Empire would be happier if
+their population were less dense; but it does not follow that we should
+allow Death to stalk uninterrupted, unopposed, and apparently without
+limit, throughout the country. Economics apart, we may yet be absolutely
+convinced, whether as doctors or as statesmen, that it is our mission,
+our duty, to protect the populations included under British rule to the
+best of our ability against every scourge as it may arise; and therefore
+it is urgent that such measures as we have be pushed forward with the
+utmost vigour."
+
+That tells (in a more convincing way, because of the impatience of the
+doctor, accustomed to European conditions, at the slow result of work in
+India) how resolute is the White Man's campaign against the Yellow Man's
+death-rate in one part of Asia. Such a campaign in time must succeed in
+destroying the disease against which it is directed and thus adding
+further to the fecundity of Asia.
+
+Nor is the fight against diseases confined to those parts of Asia under
+direct White rule. The cult of White medicine spreads everywhere,
+carried by Japanese as well as by European doctors and missionaries. Its
+effects already show in the enormous increase of Asiatic population,
+proved wherever definite figures are available. That growth adds year by
+year to the danger that the Yellow Man will overrun the Pacific and
+force the White Man to a second place in the ocean's affairs, perhaps
+not even leaving him that.
+
+An older and sterner school of thought would have condemned as fatuous
+the White Races' humanitarian nurture of the Yellow Races. But the
+gentler thought of to-day will probably agree with Dr Fremantle that the
+White Man cannot "allow Death to stalk uninterrupted, unopposed" even
+through the territory of our racial rivals. But we must give serious
+thought to the position which is thus created, especially in view of the
+"levelling" racial tendency of modern weapons of warfare. China has a
+population to-day, according to Chinese estimates, of 433,000,000;
+according to an American diplomatist's conclusions, of not much more
+than half that total. But it is, without a doubt, growing as it never
+grew before; and modern reform ideas will continue to make it grow and
+render the menace of its overflow more imminent.
+
+At present the trend of thought in China is pacific. But it is not
+possible to be sure that there will not be a change in that regard with
+the ferment of new ideas. The discussion to-day of a Republic in China,
+of womanhood suffrage in China, of democratic socialism in China,
+suggests that the vast Empire, which has been for so long the example of
+conservative immobility most favoured by rhetoricians anxious to
+illustrate a political argument, may plunge into unexpected adventures.
+China has in the past provided great invaders of the world's peace. She
+may in the near future turn again to the thoughts of military adventure.
+The chance of this would be increased if in the settlement of her
+constitutional troubles a long resort to arms were necessary. Then the
+victorious army, whether monarchical or Republican, might aspire to win
+for a new China recognition abroad.
+
+It is a fortunate fact that supposing a revival of militancy in China, a
+revival which is possible but not probable, the first brunt of the
+trouble would probably fall upon Japan. At the present moment Japan is
+the most serious offender against China's national pride. As the
+conqueror of Corea and the occupier of Manchuria, she trespasses most of
+all foreign Powers on the territories and the rights of China. After
+Japan, Russia would have to expect a demand for a reckoning; Great
+Britain would come third and might come into collision with an
+aggressive China, either because of the existence of such settlements as
+Hong Kong or because of the Thibetan boundary. A China in search of
+enemies, however, would find no lack of good pretexts for quarrelling.
+There are, for instance, the offensive and humiliating restrictions on
+Chinese immigration of the United States, of Canada, New Zealand and
+Australia.
+
+I find it necessary, however, to conclude that so far as the near
+future is concerned, China will not take a great warrior part in the
+determining of Pacific issues. She may be able to enforce a more
+wholesome respect for her territorial integrity: she may push away some
+intruders: she may even insist on a less injurious and contemptuous
+attitude towards her nationals abroad. But she will not, I think, seek
+greatness by a policy of aggression. There is no analogy between her
+conditions and those of Japan at the time of the Japanese acceptance of
+European arts and crafts. Japan at the time was a bitterly quarrelsome
+country: she turned from civil to foreign war. China has been
+essentially pacific for some centuries. Japan was faced at the outset of
+her national career with the fact that she had to expand her territory
+or else she could not hope to exist as a great Power. China has within
+her own borders all that is necessary for national greatness.
+
+If at a later date the Chinese, either from a too-thorough study of the
+lore of European civilisation, or from the pressure of a population
+deprived of all Malthusian checks and thus finding an outlet absolutely
+necessary, should decide to put armies and navies to work for the
+obtaining of new territory, the peril will be great to the White Man.
+Such a Chinese movement could secure Asia for the Asiatics, and might
+not stop at that point. But that danger is not of this decade, though
+it may have to be faced later by the White Power which wins the
+supremacy of the Pacific.
+
+FOOTNOTES:
+
+[3] A very clear statement as to the position in China was that given in
+London during January of 1912 by Mr Kwei Chih, a secretary of the
+Chinese Legation.
+
+"None of the dynasties in China," he said, "has ever maintained a
+tyrannical _régime_ for any length of time, least of all the Manchu
+dynasty, the policy of which has consisted rather of a mixture of
+paternalism and obscurantism than of hard repression of the people....
+The present unanimous desire of the Chinese to remove the Manchu dynasty
+arises solely from the fact that the Chinese have fully awakened to the
+realisation that only a policy of thoroughgoing Westernisation can save
+China from disruption and partition. The removal of the Manchu dynasty
+is of no greater national moment to China than would be the fall of a
+Cabinet to any European country. Personal animus enters, indeed, so
+little into the determination of the new Chinese _régime_ that the
+question of setting apart lands for the deposed dynasty, and even of
+granting it ex-territorial privileges, may eventually be accepted in the
+way of a solution. In regard to the adoption of Republican ideas, it may
+be said that the Chinese statesman does not understand the meaning of
+the Republican principle, and if a new _régime_ should declare itself
+Republican, its Republicanism will be of a much more strongly democratic
+type than any known to Europe. It will even be more popular in its
+constitution than the American, and will far more fully seek the
+development of the common weal than most bureaucratic systems bearing
+the name. The suggested application of Christian principles to the new
+_régime_ may be regarded as wholly impossible. Confucianism, by which
+China stands or falls, is a secular philosophy, the only semblance of a
+spiritual or religious tenet in which is the principle of
+ancestor-worship, and though a theocratic idea is admitted in the
+creation of the universe, the question of a life hereafter is wholly
+excluded from its teachings."
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER V
+
+THE UNITED STATES--AN IMPERIAL POWER
+
+
+Following the map of the North-Western Pacific littoral, the eye
+encounters, on leaving the coast of China, the Philippine Islands, proof
+of the ambition of the United States to hold a place in the Pacific.
+
+It is a common fallacy to ascribe to the United States a Quakerish
+temperament in foreign affairs. Certain catch-words of American local
+politics have been given a fictitious value, both at home and abroad.
+"Republican Simplicity," "The Rights of Man," "European Tyranny,"
+"Imperial Aggression," "The Vortex of Militarism"--from these and
+similar texts some United State publicists are wont to preach of the
+tyranny of European kings and emperors; of their greed to swallow up
+weak neighbours; and of the evils of the military and naval systems
+maintained to gratify such greed. By much grandiose assertion, or by
+that quiet implication which is more complete proof of a convinced mind
+than the most grandiose of assertion, the American nation has been
+pictured in happy contrast to others, pursuing a simple and peaceful
+life; with no desire for more territory; no wish to interfere with the
+affairs of others; in the world, but not of the world.
+
+Astonishment that such professions should carry any weight at all in the
+face of the great mass of facts showing that the American national
+temper is exactly the reverse of Quakerish, is modified in the political
+student by the fact that it is the rule for nations as well as
+individuals to be judged in the popular estimation by phrases rather
+than by facts. Ignoring the phrases of politicians and considering only
+the facts, it will be found that the American people have Imperial
+ambitions worthy of their ancestry and inseparable from the
+responsibility towards civilisation which their national greatness
+involves.
+
+It was in the middle of the eighteenth century that the United States
+began national housekeeping within a small territory on the seaboard of
+the Atlantic. By the nineteenth century that area had extended over a
+section of the continent of America as large almost as Europe. By the
+twentieth century this Power, still represented as incurably "peaceful
+and stay-at-home" by its leaders, was established in the Caribbean Sea,
+on the Isthmus of Panama, in the North and South Pacific, along the
+coast of Asia, and had set up firmly the principle that whatever affair
+of the world demanded international attention, from a loan to China, to
+the fate of an Atlantic port of Morocco, the United States had
+"interests" which must be considered, and advice which must be
+regarded. The only circumstance that genuinely suggests a Quaker spirit
+in United States foreign diplomacy is her quaint directness of language.
+More effete peoples may wrap every stage of a negotiation up to an
+ultimatum in honeyed phrases of respect. America "tutoyers" all courts
+and is mercilessly blunt in claim and warning.
+
+It would be very strange if the United States were otherwise than
+Imperial in spirit. Nations, like individuals, are affected by
+biological laws; a young, strong nation is as naturally aggressive and
+ambitious as a young, strong boy. Contentment with things as they are, a
+disposition to make anxious sacrifices to the gods who grant peace, are
+the signs of old age. If a boy is quite good his parents have a
+reasonable right to suspect some constitutional weakness. A new nation
+which really resembled what a great many of the American people think
+the United States to be, would show as a morbid anomaly. No; the course
+of the world's future history will never be correctly forecasted except
+on the assumption that the United States is an aggressively Imperial
+nation, having an influence at least equal to that of any European Power
+in the settlement of international issues; and determined to use that
+influence and to extend its scope year by year. In the Problem of the
+Pacific particularly, the United States must be counted, not merely as a
+great factor but the greatest factor.
+
+If the American citizen of to-day is considered as though he were a
+British citizen of some generations back, with a healthy young appetite
+for conquest still uncloyed, some idea near to the truth will have been
+reached. But since the deference exacted by public opinion nowadays
+compels some degree of pretence and does not permit us to parade our
+souls naked, it is improbable that the United States citizen of this
+century will adopt the frank freebooting attitude of the Elizabethan
+Englishman when he was laying the foundations of his Empire by methods
+inspired somewhat by piracy as well as by patriotism. The American will
+have to make some concession to the times and seek always a moral
+sanction for the extension of his boundaries. Such a search, however, is
+rarely made in vain when it is backed by a resolved purpose. It was
+sufficient for Francis Drake to know that a settlement was Spanish and
+rich. The attack followed. The United States needs to know that a
+possession is foreign, is desirable, and is grossly ill-governed before
+she will move to a remonstrance in the sacred name of Liberty. Since
+good government is an ideal which seldom comes at all close to
+realisation, and the reputation of no form of administration can survive
+the ordeal of resolute foreign criticism, the practical difference is
+slight. The American Empire will grow with the benediction always of a
+high moral purpose; but it will grow.
+
+It is interesting to recall the fact that at its very birth the United
+States was invested by a writer of prophetic insight with the purple of
+Empire. Said the _London Gazette_ of 1765:--"Little doubt can be
+entertained that America will in time be the greatest and most
+prosperous Empire that perhaps the world has ever seen." But the early
+founders of the new nation, then as now, deceived themselves and others
+with the view that a pacific little Republic, not a mighty Empire, was
+their aim. The Imperial instinct showed, however, in the fact that the
+baby nation had in its youngest days set up a formidable navy. It was
+ostensibly "for the local defence of its shores," but naval power and
+overseas Empire are inseparably linked.
+
+The austere Republic began to grow in territory and influence at a rate
+putting to shame the early feats of the Roman power. By 1893 the United
+States had made it clear that she would not allow her independence to be
+fettered in the slightest degree by any claims of gratitude from France:
+and her Declaration of Neutrality in the European War then raging was a
+clear statement of claim to be considered as a Power. The war with the
+Barbary States in 1802 to suppress piracy was a claim to police rights
+on the high seas, police rights which custom gives only to a paramount
+sea Power. By the next year Spain and France had been more or less
+politely relieved of all responsibilities in North America, and the
+United States stretched from ocean to ocean, and from the Great Lakes to
+the Gulf of Mexico.
+
+It is upon the early eloquence of her founders as to the duty of the
+United States to confine her attention strictly to America, that the
+common misconception of America's place in foreign policy has been built
+up. That talk, however, was in the first instance dictated largely by
+prudence. Alexander Hamilton, who controlled the foreign policy of the
+infant Republic at the outset, was particularly anxious that she should
+find her feet before attempting any deeds of enterprise. In particular,
+he was anxious that the United States should not, through considerations
+of sentiment, be drawn into the position of a mere appanage of France.
+He set the foundations of what was known afterwards as the "Monroe
+doctrine," with the one thought that, at the time, a policy of
+non-interference with European affairs was a necessary condition of free
+growth for the young nation. The same idea governed Washington's
+farewell address in 1796 with its warning against "foreign
+entanglements."
+
+Afterwards the "Monroe doctrine"--deriving its name from a message by
+President Monroe in 1823--was given the meaning that the United States
+would not tolerate any interference with the affairs of the American
+continent by Europe. Finally the "Monroe doctrine," which had begun with
+an affirmation of America's non-participation in European affairs, and
+had developed into a declaration against European interference with
+American affairs, took its present form, which is, in effect, that over
+all America the United States has a paramount interest which must not be
+questioned, and that as regards the rest of the world she claims an
+equal voice with other Powers. Yet, though that is the actual position,
+there is still an idea in some minds that the Monroe doctrine is an
+instrument of humbleness by which the United States claims the immunity
+of America from foreign interference and guarantees foreign countries
+from American interference.
+
+It will be of value to recall, in illustration of the rapid growth of an
+aggressive national pride in the United States, the circumstances which
+led up to Mr. President Monroe's formal message in 1823. The dawn of the
+nineteenth century found the young American nation, after about a
+quarter of a century's existence, fairly on her feet; able to vindicate
+her rights abroad by a war against the Barbary pirates: given by the
+cession of Louisiana from France, a magnificent accession of territory.
+The Empire of Spain was crumbling to pieces, and between 1803 and 1825
+the Latin-American Republics in South and Central America were being
+established on the ruins of that Empire. Spain, her attention engaged in
+European wars, was able to do little or nothing to assert herself
+against the rebellious colonies. But in 1815, Napoleon having been
+vanquished, the Holy Alliance in Europe attempted to reassert the old
+power of the European monarchies. The terror of Napoleon's army had
+forced the kings of the earth into a union which forgot national
+differences and was anxious only to preserve the Divine Right of Kings.
+The formation of this Holy Alliance was viewed with suspicion and
+dislike in the United States, and when in 1823 the Alliance raised the
+question of joint action by European monarchies to restore Spanish rule
+in South America, the United States responded with Monroe's famous
+message forbidding any European interference on the continent of
+America. Such European colonies as already existed would be tolerated,
+and that was all. The message stated:
+
+    "The American continents by the free and independent conditions
+    which they have assumed are henceforth not to be considered as
+    subjects for future colonisation by any European Power.
+
+    "We could not view any interposition for purpose of oppressing them
+    or controlling in any other manner their destiny by any European
+    Power in any other way than as the manifestation of an unfriendly
+    disposition towards the United States."
+
+That "Monroe doctrine" was destined to be extended greatly in scope. In
+1845 Mr. President Polk declared that no future European colony should
+be planted on any part of the North American continent, and laid it down
+as the duty of the United States "to annex American territory lest it be
+annexed by European countries." True to that faith, he was responsible
+for the annexation of Texas, Oregon and California. The United States
+claim to overlordship of North America was still more remarkably
+extended in 1867, when a protest was entered against the Federation of
+the Canadian Provinces. The protest was not insisted upon then, though
+in 1870 Mr. President Grant revived the spirit of the protest with his
+forecast of "the end of European political connection with this
+continent." The Venezuela controversy between Great Britain and the
+United States in 1895 was responsible for another extension of the
+Monroe doctrine. It was then claimed that "foreign colonies ought to
+cease in this hemisphere." Insistence on that would, however, have led
+to a war in which Great Britain probably would have had the assistance
+of other European Powers affected; and the Monroe doctrine receded a
+little.
+
+Exactly how this chief article of the United States foreign policy
+stands to-day one cannot say. Certainly the Monroe doctrine does not
+mean, as it was once supposed to mean, that the United States in return
+for foreign abstention from interference in American affairs pledges
+herself to keep apart from all extra-American affairs. In world politics
+she claims and exercises the privileges to which her vast resources and
+her high state of civilisation are the warrants. In regard to American
+affairs the Monroe doctrine clearly forbids any further European
+colonisation in North or South America, and constitutes the United
+States as the Suzerain Power of all the Latin-American Republics
+(whether they are willing or not). What else it will be found to mean
+will depend on the circumstances of the moment and the feelings of the
+newspaper proprietors who exercise so great an influence on the
+American man-in-the-street, the governing factor in shaping his
+country's foreign policy. In European countries, however democratic, the
+man-in-the-street has rarely any immediate authority over Foreign
+Affairs. In Great Britain, for example, the questions of the relations
+of the Government with other countries are not canvassed before the
+voters. The close oligarchy of the Cabinet (acting often with the
+Opposition Front Bench) comes to decisions of peace and war, of treaty
+and _entente_, and, after decision, allows Parliament and the electorate
+to acquiesce. But in the United States foreign policy is actually
+dictated by the voters; and that means, in effect, by the newspapers. On
+occasion the Monroe doctrine has already been interpreted into a notice
+to quit to all European Powers holding settlements on the American
+continent. It may in the near future revive that claim to paramount and
+exclusive authority, and it may cover a declaration of direct suzerainty
+over Mexico, and over the smaller republics intervening between the
+United States border and the Panama Canal. In most Latin-American
+republics disorder is the rule rather than the exception; and it may
+become at any moment the honest opinion of the man-in-the-street of the
+United States that the Panama Canal is too important to civilisation to
+be left to the chances of interference from less stable governments than
+his own.
+
+These conclusions are inevitable to anyone making any study of American
+history and the American character. They are not hostile criticisms.
+They are rather appreciations. A great nation with a belief in its
+destiny must be "Imperialist" in spirit, because it has a natural desire
+to spread the blessings of its rule. The people of the United States
+believe as strongly in themselves as did the ancient Hebrews, and all
+must have a genuine respect for that fierce spirit of elect nationality
+which made the Hebrews found a great nation on a goat-patch. In
+Elizabethan England the same spirit flourished and was responsible for
+the founding of the British Empire. (It survives still in the British
+Isles, though somewhat spasmodically.) There is no ground at all either
+for wonder or for complaint in the fact that Imperialism has been born
+to vigorous life in the United States, where the people of "God's own
+country" are firm in these two articles of faith: that any interference
+in the affairs of the United States is unjust, unnecessary, tyrannical
+and impious; that any United States interference with another nation is
+a necessary and salutary effort on behalf of civilisation. Let no man of
+British blood complain. But let no one in making calculations of world
+policy be deceived into any other conclusion than that the United States
+is the great Imperial force of this century, and also the one Power that
+has enough of the splendid illusions of youth to indulge in crusading
+wars, for which Europe nowadays is too old and cautious.
+
+In the countries of Europe other than Great Britain that which I have
+stated is coming to be generally recognised, and if at any time a
+combination could be proposed with any hope of success "to put America
+in her place," the combination would be formed and the Old World would
+grapple with the New to try conclusions. Without Great Britain, however,
+such an alliance would have at present no chance of success, and British
+adherence is not within the realm of practical thought to-day.
+
+The Imperialist tendency of United States policy is shown with
+particular clarity in the history of the Pacific Ocean. Very early in
+her life the vigorous young nation saw the Fates beckoning her across
+the Pacific. The downfall of the Spanish power in North America left the
+United States heir to a great stretch of rich coast line, including the
+noble province of California. Russia was ousted from the north-west
+coast of the Continent by a wise purchase. Before then, American whalers
+sailing out of Boston had begun to exploit the Southern Pacific. Their
+whaling trips brought back knowledge of the Hawaiian or Sandwich Group,
+and, following exactly the methods of British colonisation, American
+missionaries were the pioneers of American nationalisation. As far back
+as 1820 Hiram Bingham preached his first sermon at Honolulu from the
+text, "Fear not, for, behold, I bring you glad tidings of great joy." A
+handsome church now marks the gratitude of his native converts. With
+equal justice Bingham's American compatriots might have set up a great
+statue to him as the first warden of the Marches of the Pacific for the
+United States. For from that day the annexation of Hawaii was
+inevitable. The process took the familiar course. First the United
+States Republic exercised a benevolent suzerainty over the Hawaiian
+kingdom. Then the blessing of free institutions was bestowed on the
+natives by the foundation of an Hawaiian Republic. The next step was
+definite annexation. Following that, came steps for the formation of a
+great naval base at Honolulu.
+
+When I visited the Hawaiian Group in the spring of 1909 the work of
+fortifying Honolulu was being pushed on with great vigour, and the
+American military and civil authorities boasted of their intention to
+make it the Gibraltar of the Pacific. The city of Honolulu has at
+present a very small harbour, a little bay to which access is given by
+an opening in the coral reefs which surround the island. This port would
+hardly afford shelter to a squadron of cruisers. But to the left as one
+enters is Pearl Harbour, a magnificent stretch of land-locked water
+sufficient to float a great Fleet. But Pearl Harbour basin in its
+natural state is too well protected, there being no means of access
+except for very small boats. American energy is now remedying that, and
+a deep-water channel is being cut from Honolulu Harbour to Pearl Harbour
+to take vessels of the largest draught at all tides. When that channel
+is completed, Pearl Harbour will be at once commodious and easily
+protected. The single narrow entrance will be dominated by the guns of
+Malakiki Hill, a great eminence, somewhat like Gibraltar in shape, to
+the right of the town, which commands the sea-front east and west: and
+within Pearl Harbour the American Pacific Fleet will find a safe haven.
+It will be absolutely impregnable from the sea. Hostile ships
+approaching Honolulu would have to steer straight for Malakiki and then
+defile amid the coral reefs past its guns before the entrance to Pearl
+Harbour would open before them.
+
+But land defence has also to be taken into account. The chief male
+element of the Hawaiian population is not American, not native Hawaiian.
+It is Japanese. The Mikado's subjects represent now the largest fighting
+element in the population, outnumbering even the natives. These
+Japanese, imported as coolies for the sugar-fields, are mostly men of
+military training. Further influx of them has now been stopped, not
+under an Immigration Restriction Act, but by private treaty with Japan;
+and, as a measure of precaution, an Arms Registration Ordinance provides
+that no citizen shall have in his possession firearms unless he is
+licensed by the Government. But this precaution would be in vain if
+Japan ever seriously thought of using her 50,000 soldier-citizens in the
+Hawaiian Group against the United States; for the whole of the fishing
+industry is in the hands of the Japanese, and their sampans could land
+arms at various places on the islands with ease. Such a contingency has
+been foreseen in the laying out of Honolulu as a naval base, and the
+land fortifications are designed with the same thoroughness as those
+designed to beat off a sea attack.
+
+A glance at the map will show that the Power which holds Hawaii with a
+powerful Fleet can dominate the whole of the Northern Pacific,
+threatening every point east and west. The American position there is
+weakened by only one circumstance, the great Japanese population. This,
+though it may not be recruited with further drafts of males from its
+native source, will always be a very considerable, if not the most
+considerable, element of the Hawaiian population, for most of the
+coolies are married, and the Japanese abroad as well as at home fills
+the cradle industriously.
+
+I remember on the morning of April 1, 1909, coming into Honolulu city
+from the Moana Hotel on the sea-beach, I found the tram rushed by
+Japanese at all the stopping places. Two cruisers of their navy had
+entered the harbour--cruisers which were once upon a time the Russian
+_Variag_ and _Koreitz_. All Japan in Honolulu was making holiday. A
+fleet of sampans (the Japanese fishing-vessel) surrounded the ships,
+which commemorated so signally a great and successful war. The water
+front was lined with Japanese, the women and children mostly in their
+national costume. One Japanese father came on to the tram with seven
+boys, the eldest of whom did not seem more than ten years of age.
+Asked, he said that they were all his own children. There will never be
+a lack of a big Japanese population in Hawaii.
+
+The definite acquisition of Hawaii may be fairly dated from 1851. Before
+then there had been a significant proof of America's gaze turning
+westward by the appointment in 1844 of Mr Caleb Cushing as the United
+States Ambassador to the Court of China. A little later (1854) the
+American Power found the Japanese policy of exclusiveness intolerable,
+and United States warships broke a way into Japanese ports. It had also
+been decided by then that the task, originally undertaken by a French
+Company, of cutting a waterway across the Panama Isthmus should be the
+responsibility of the United States. British susceptibilities on the
+point were soothed by the Clayton-Bulwer treaty guaranteeing the
+neutrality of the canal, a treaty which was subsequently abrogated in
+response to the increasing deference which the growing power of the
+American Republic could exact. That abrogation created the present
+position which gives the United States sole control of that canal, and
+the right to fortify its entrances.
+
+By the middle of the nineteenth century, therefore, the United States, a
+Power which some people still insist on regarding as an essentially
+domestic character interested only in purely American affairs, had
+established herself in a commanding strategical position in the North
+Pacific, had constituted herself the arbiter of Japanese national
+manners, and had obtained the control of the future waterway from the
+Atlantic to the Pacific. The second half of the same century was
+destined to see an even more remarkable Imperial expansion. The
+misgovernment of Cuba by Spain became intolerable to American public
+opinion, and in 1898 war was declared with the avowed purpose of
+conferring the blessings of freedom on the people of Cuba. If one
+accepted the nonsensical view that the United States is a Power lifted
+above ordinary human nature by some mysterious racial alchemy, it would
+be difficult to understand why a war to free Cuba should also have been
+waged in another ocean to acquire the Philippines. But, looking at the
+matter in a sane light, it was natural that, being engaged in a war with
+Spain, the United States should strike at Spain wherever a blow was
+possible and should destroy the Spanish power in the Pacific Ocean as
+well as in the Caribbean Sea. Besides, the opportunity offered of
+stretching the arm of America right across the Pacific to the very coast
+of Asia. The Filipinos did not relish the substitution for the weak rule
+of Spain of the strong rule of the United States, and American
+Imperialism had the experience of having to force, by stern warfare on
+the liberated, acceptance of its rôle of liberator. Perhaps the
+experience taught it some sympathy with older players at the game of
+Empire-making: certainly it did not abate its ardour in the good work.
+
+So much for the past history of the United States in the Pacific. A
+forecast of her influence on the future of the ocean is clearly
+indicated by the past. The United States spread from the east of the
+North American continent to the west, because there is no method known
+to prevent the extension of a highly civilised, a young, an ardent
+nation at the expense of backward, effete and tired peoples. It was
+impossible that either the Red Indian tribes or the picturesque old
+settlements of the Californian Spanish should stand in the way of the
+American Republic stretching from ocean to ocean. Once the United States
+was established on the Pacific coast, it was equally inevitable that the
+arm of her power should stretch across the ocean. The acquisition of the
+Hawaiian Group was necessary for the sound defence of the coast. The
+American trading ships which sought the coast of Asia and found barbaric
+barriers against commerce being battered down by European venturers, had
+to do as the other White Men did. The flag thus had to follow in the
+wake of the trade. It was all natural, necessary and ultimately
+beneficial to civilisation. Equally inevitable will be the future
+expansion of the United States in the Pacific. The overwhelming strength
+of her industrial organisation will give her a first call on the neutral
+markets of the ocean--_i.e._ those markets to which she has the same
+right of access as her trade rivals. As the tendency shows for the area
+of those neutral markets to narrow through coming under the domination
+of various Powers, the United States will seek to extend her domination
+too. The protection of what she has will enforce the need of acquiring
+other strategical points. So her Pacific possessions will grow, almost
+unconsciously, just as the British Empire grew.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER VI
+
+GREAT BRITAIN'S ENTRY INTO THE PACIFIC
+
+
+Off the coast of China at a point where, in a strategical map the
+"spheres of influence" of Japan and the United States and Germany would
+impinge, is the island of Hong Kong, the Far East station of the British
+Empire. Further south, in the Malay Peninsula, is Singapore, standing
+guard over the entrance to the Indian Ocean. On these two coaling
+stations British naval power in the North Pacific is based. The
+abandonment of either of them is unthinkable to-day, yet neither was
+taken possession of until the nineteenth century--Singapore in 1819,
+Hong Kong in 1841. In the South Pacific there was shown an even stronger
+hesitation in acquiring territory.
+
+Why Great Britain entered so reluctantly into the Pacific as a
+colonising Power may probably be explained by the fact that at the time
+the ocean came to be exploited British earth hunger had been satiated.
+The unsuccessful war which attempted to hold the American colonies to
+the Mother Country, had made her doubtful whether overseas dominions
+were altogether a blessing and whether the advantage to be gained from
+them outweighed the responsibilities which their holding entailed. It
+seemed to be the natural conclusion from the American War of
+Independence, that once a colony or a group of colonies arrived at the
+stage of growth which allowed it to be of some use to the Mother
+Country, the inevitable next development was for it to throw off the
+bonds of kinship and enter upon a career of independence at the price of
+an expensive and humiliating war to its parent. Thus, whilst British
+sailors were to the front in the exploration of the Pacific, British
+statesmen showed a great reluctance to take any advantage of their
+discoveries; and it was a series of accidents rather than any settled
+purpose which planted the Anglo-Saxon race so firmly in this ocean.
+India, it must be noted, a century ago was a country having very little
+direct concern with the Pacific. The holding of the Indian Empire did
+not depend on any position in the Pacific. That situation has since
+changed, and Great Britain would be forced to an interest in the Pacific
+by her Indian Empire if she had no other possessions in the ocean.
+
+In an earlier chapter on Japan, something has been written concerning
+the reasons which would argue for the absence of an Imperial impulse in
+the Japanese islands and its presence in the British islands. The
+inquiry then suggested as to the instincts of expansion and dominion
+which were primarily responsible for the growth of the British Empire is
+full of fascination for the historian. If it comes to be considered
+carefully, the Empire-making of the British people was throughout the
+result of a racial impulse working instinctively, spasmodically, though
+unerringly, towards an unseen goal, rather than of a designed and
+purposeful statesmanship.
+
+The racial origin of the British people dictated peremptorily a policy
+of oversea adventure, and that adventure led inevitably to colonisation.
+In the beginning Britain was a part of Gaul, a temperate and fertile
+peninsula which by right of latitude should have had the temperature of
+Labrador, but which, because of the Gulf Stream, enjoyed a climate
+singularly mild and promotive of fecundity. When the separation from the
+mainland came because of the North Sea cutting the English Channel, the
+Gallic tribes left in Britain began to acquire, as the fruits of their
+gracious environment and their insular position, an exclusive patriotism
+and a comparative immunity from invasion. These made the Briton at once
+very proud of his country and not very fitted to defend its shores.
+
+With the Roman invasion there came to the future British race a benefit
+from both those causes. The comparative ease of the conquest by the
+Roman Power, holding as it did the mastery of the seas, freed the
+ensuing settlement by the conquerors from a good deal of the bitterness
+which would have followed a desperate resistance. The Romans were
+generous winners and good colonists. Once their power was established
+firmly, they treated a subject race with kindly consideration. Soon,
+too, the local pride of the Britons affected their victors. The Roman
+garrison came to take an interest in their new home, an interest which
+was aided by the singular beauty and fertility of the country. It was
+not long before Carausius, a Roman general in Britain, had set himself
+up as independent of Italy, and with the aid of sea-power he maintained
+his position for some years. The Romans and the Britons, too, freely
+intermarried, and at the time when the failing power of the Empire
+compelled the withdrawal of the Roman garrison, the south of Britain was
+as much Romanised as, say, northern Africa or Spain.
+
+Thus from the very dawn of known history natural position and climate
+marked out Britain as the vat for the brewing of a strenuous blood. The
+sea served her "in the office of a wall or of a moat defensive to a
+house" to keep away all but the most vigorous of invaders. The charm and
+fertility of the land made it certain that a bold and vigorous invader
+would be tempted to become a colonist and not be satisfied with robbing
+and passing on.
+
+With the decay of the Roman Empire, and the withdrawal of the Roman
+legions to the defence of Rome, the Romanised Britons were left
+helpless. Civilisation and the growth of riches had made them at once
+more desirable objects of prey, and less able to resist attack. The
+province which Rome abandoned was worried on all sides by the incursion
+of the fierce clans of the north and the west. A decision, ultimately
+wise, judged by its happy results, but at the moment disastrous, induced
+some of the harried Britons to call in to their aid the Norsemen
+pirates, who at the time, taking advantage of the failing authority of
+Rome, were swarming out from Scandinavia and from the shores of the
+Baltic in search of booty. The Angles, the Saxons, the Jutes, were
+willing enough to come to Britain as mercenaries, even more willing to
+stay as colonists. An Anglo-Saxon wave swept over the greater part of
+England, and was stopped only by the mountains of Wales or of Scotland.
+That was the end of the Britons as the chief power in Britain, but they
+mingled with their conquerors to modify the Anglo-Saxon type with an
+infusion of Celtic blood. In the mountainous districts the Celtic blood
+continued to predominate, and does to this day.
+
+The Anglo-Saxons would have been very content to settle down peacefully
+on the fat lands which had fallen to them, but the piratical nests from
+which they themselves had issued still sent forth broods of hungry
+adventurers, and the invasions of the Danes taught the Anglo-Saxons that
+what steel had won must be guarded by steel. They learned, too, that any
+race holding England must rely upon sea-power for peaceful existence.
+After the Danish, the last great element in the making of the present
+British race, was the Norman. The Normans were not so much foreigners
+as might be supposed. The Anglo-Saxons of the day were descendants of
+sea-pirates who had settled in Britain and mingled their blood with the
+British. The Normans were descendants of kindred sea-pirates who had
+settled in Gaul, and mingled their blood with that of the Gauls and
+Franks. The two races, Anglo-Saxon and Normans, after a while combined
+amicably enough, the Anglo-Saxon blood predominating, and the British
+type was evolved, in part Celtic, in part Danish, in part Anglo-Saxon,
+in part Norman--a hard-fighting, stubborn adventurous race, which in its
+making from such varied elements had learned the value of compromise,
+and of the common-sense principle of give-and-take. One can see that it
+was just the race for the work of exploration and colonisation.
+
+When this British people, thus constituted, were driven back to a
+sea-frontier by the French nation, it was natural that they should turn
+their energies overseas. To this their Anglo-Saxon blood, their Danish
+blood, their Norman blood prompted. The Elizabethan era, which was the
+era of the foundation of the British Empire overseas, was marked by a
+form of patriotism which was hard to distinguish in some of its
+manifestations from plain robbery. The fact calls for no particular
+condemnation. It was according to the habit of thought of the time. But
+it is necessary to bear in mind that the hunt for loot and not the
+desire for territory was the chief motive of the flashing glories of the
+Elizabethan era of seamanship; for that is the explanation why there
+was left as the fruit of many victories few permanent settlements.
+
+Drake was the first English naval leader to penetrate to the Pacific.
+His famous circumnavigation of the world is one of the boldest exploits
+of history. Drake's log entry on entering the Pacific stirs the blood:
+
+"Now, as we were fallen to the uttermost parts of these islands on
+October 28, 1578, our troubles did make an end, the storm ceased, and
+all our calamities (only the absence of our friends excepted) were
+removed, as if God all this while by His secret Providence had led us to
+make this discovery, which being had according to His will, He stayed
+His hand."
+
+On this voyage Drake put in at San Francisco, which he named New Albion.
+He went back to Europe through the East Indies and around Africa. But
+Drake made no attempt at colonisation. Looting of the Spanish treasure
+ships was the first and last object of his cruise. What was, according
+to our present lights, a more honourable descent upon the Pacific was
+that of Admiral Anson in the eighteenth century. He, in 1740, took a
+Fleet round the stormy Horn to subdue the Philippines and break the
+power of Spain in the Pacific. The force thought fitting for such an
+enterprise in those days was 961 men! Anson did not subdue the
+Philippines; but they were guarded by the scurvy, which attacked the
+English Fleet, rather than by the Spanish might, and the little
+disease-racked English squadron was able to cripple the Spanish power in
+the Pacific by the mere dread of its presence. Anson took prizes and
+made them masquerade before the enemy's coast as hostile warships, and
+paralysed the Spanish commerce in those seas. He returned to England
+with only 335 men out of his original complement of 961. Practically all
+the deaths had been from disease. But again the idea of the Pacific
+expedition was not to colonise but to strike a blow at a rival European
+Power. It was not until the nineteenth century that Great Britain
+established herself on the western flank of the North Pacific.
+
+So far as the South Pacific was concerned British indifference was
+complete, and it was shared by other nations. In the days when the
+fabled wealth of the Indies was the magnet to draw men of courage and
+worth to perilous undertakings by sea and land, there was nothing in the
+South Pacific to attract their greed, and nothing, therefore, to
+stimulate their enterprise. The Spaniard, blundering on America in his
+quest for a western sea-passage to the ivory, the gold, and the spices
+of India, found there a land with more possibilities of plunder than
+that which he had originally sought. He was content to remain, looting
+the treasuries of the Mexicans and of the Peruvians for metals, and
+laying the forests of Central America under contribution for precious
+woods. He ventured but little westward, and the Hawaiian Islands
+represented for a time the extreme western limit of his adventures.
+Following him for plunder came the English, and they too were content to
+sweep along the western coast of South America without venturing further
+towards the unknown west.
+
+From another direction the sea-route to India was sought by Portuguese,
+and Dutch, and English and French. Groping round the African coast, they
+came in time to the land of their desires, and found besides India and
+Cathay, Java, the Spice Islands, and other rich groups of the Malay
+Archipelago. But they, just as the Spaniards, did not venture west from
+South America; and neither Portuguese, Dutch, French nor English set the
+course of their vessels south from the East Indies.
+
+It was thus Australia remained for many years an unknown continent. And
+when at last navigators, more bold or less bound to an immediate greed,
+touched upon the shores of Australia, or called at the South Sea
+Islands, they found little that was attractive. In no case had the
+simple natives won to a greed for gold and silver, and so they had no
+accumulations of wealth to tempt cupidity. In the case of Australia the
+coast-line was dour and forbidding, and promised nothing but sterility.
+
+The exploring period in which the desire for plunder was the chief
+motive passed away, having spared the South Pacific. It was therefore
+the fate of Australia, of New Zealand, and of most of the islands of
+Polynesia and Melanesia, to be settled under happier conditions, and to
+be spared the excesses of cruelty which marked the European invasion of
+the West Indies and the Americas. The Newest World began its
+acquaintance with civilisation under fairly happy auspices.
+
+It was not until the middle of the seventeenth century that a scientific
+expedition brought the South Pacific before the attention of Britain. A
+transit of Venus across the sun promised to yield valuable knowledge as
+to the nature of solar phenomena. To observe the transit under the best
+conditions, astronomers knew that a station in the South Seas was
+necessary, and Lieutenant Cook, R.N., an officer who had already
+distinguished himself in the work of exploration, was promoted to be
+Captain and entrusted to lead a scientific expedition to Otaheite. Added
+to his commission was an injunction to explore the South Seas if time
+and opportunity offered. Captain Cook was of the type which makes time
+and opportunity. Certainly there was little in the equipment of his
+expedition to justify an extension of its duties after the transit of
+Venus had been duly observed. But he took it that his duty was to
+explore the South Seas, and explore them he did, incidentally annexing
+for the British Empire the Continent of Australia.
+
+That was in 1770. But still there was so little inviting in the prospect
+of settlement in the South Seas that it was some eighteen years before
+any effort was made to follow up by colonisation this annexation by
+Captain Cook. When the effort was made it was not on very dignified
+lines. The American colonies had at one time served as an outlet for the
+overflow of the British prisons. The War of Independence had closed that
+channel. The overcrowding of the British prisons became desperate, and,
+because it was necessary to find some relief for this--not because it
+was considered advantageous to populate the new possession--the First
+Fleet sailed for the foundation of Australia in 1788.
+
+We shall see in subsequent chapters how the reluctance of the governing
+Power of the British race in the Home Country to establish an Empire in
+the South Pacific found a curious response in the stubborn resoluteness
+of the colonists who settled in Australia and New Zealand to be more
+English than the English themselves, to be as aggressively Imperialistic
+almost as the men of the Elizabethan era. (What might almost be called
+the "Jingoism" of the British nations in the South Pacific must have a
+very important effect in settling the mastery of that ocean.) In the
+present chapter the establishment of the British Power in the North
+Pacific chiefly will be considered.
+
+Singapore is to-day the capital of the three Straits Settlements--
+Singapore, Penang, and Malacca, but it is the youngest of the three
+settlements. Malacca is the oldest. It was taken possession of by the
+Portuguese under Albuquerque in 1511, and held by them until 1641, when
+the Dutch were successful in driving them out. The settlement remained
+under the Government of the Dutch till 1795, when it was captured by
+the English, and held by them till 1818, at which date it was restored
+to the Dutch, and finally passed into British hands in pursuance of the
+treaty with Holland of 1824. By that treaty it was arranged that the
+Dutch should leave the Malay Peninsula, the British Government agreeing
+at the same time to leave Sumatra to the Dutch. When Malacca was taken
+possession of by the Portuguese in 1511, it was one of the great
+centres for the commerce of the East; but under Dutch rule it dwindled,
+and Penang acquired a monopoly of the trade of the Malayan Peninsula
+and Sumatra, together with a large traffic with China, Siam, Borneo,
+the Celebes, and other places in the Archipelago. When Singapore was
+established Penang in its turn had to yield the first place to the new
+city.
+
+Singapore was acquired for Britain by Sir Stamford Raffles in 1819, by
+virtue of a treaty with the Johore princes. It was at first subordinate
+to Bencoolen in Sumatra, but in 1823 it was placed under the Government
+of Bengal; it was afterwards incorporated in 1826, with Penang and
+Malacca, and placed under the Governor and Council of the Incorporated
+Settlements. Singapore is now one of the great shipping ports of the
+world, served by some fifty lines of steamers, and with a trade of over
+20,000,000 tons a year. The harbour of Singapore is fortified, and the
+port is indicated by one advanced school of British Imperialists as the
+future chief base of a Fleet, contributed to by India, Australia, New
+Zealand, South Africa, and Canada, and kept to a standard of strength
+equal to that available to any other two Powers in the Pacific. Captain
+Macaulay, in a strategical scheme for Imperial Defence which has been
+received with deep attention in Great Britain, suggests:--
+
+"The influence which an Indian Ocean Fleet, based on Colombo and
+Singapore, would have on Imperial Defence can hardly be exaggerated. The
+Indian Ocean--a British Mediterranean to the Pacific--with its openings
+east and west in our hands, is a position of readiness for naval action
+in the Western Pacific, the South Atlantic, or the Mediterranean. In the
+first case it influences the defence of Canada and the Australasian
+States; in the second, that of South Africa. An Indian Ocean Fleet can
+reinforce, or be reinforced by the Fleets in European waters, if the
+storm centre be confined to Europe or to the Pacific. As regards the
+direct naval defence of the Australasian Provinces, no better position
+could be chosen than that of a Fleet based on Singapore, with an
+advanced base at Hong Kong, because it flanks all possible attack on
+them. An advanced flank defence is better than any direct defence of so
+large a coast-line as that of Australia from any point within it.
+Moreover, Singapore and Hong Kong are much nearer to the naval bases of
+any Powers in the Western Pacific than those countries are to Australia
+or to Canada. Hence, in operations for the defence of any Province, they
+favour offensive-defensive action on our part. And offensive-defensive
+is the great characteristic of naval power. Any East Asian Power
+contemplating aggression against Australasian or North American
+territory must evidently first deal with the Indian Ocean Fleet.
+
+"It is impossible to ignore the strategical and political significance
+of the Imperial triangle of India based on South Africa and the
+Australasian States, and its influence in the solution of the new
+problems of Imperial Defence. The effective naval defence of the
+self-governing Provinces is best secured by a Fleet maintained in the
+North Indian Ocean; and the reinforcement of the British garrison in
+India is best secured by units of the Imperial Army maintained in the
+self-governing Provinces. If these two conditions are satisfied, the
+problem of the defence of the Mother Country is capable of easy
+solution."
+
+Hong Kong is of less strategical importance than Singapore. But it is
+marked out as the advanced base of British naval power in the North
+Pacific. It has one of the most magnificent harbours in the world, with
+an area of ten square miles. The granite hills which surround it rise
+between 2000 and 3000 feet high. The city of Victoria extends for four
+miles at the base of the hills which protect the south side of the
+harbour, and contains, with its suburbs, 326,961 inhabitants. It is the
+present base of the China squadron, and is fortified and garrisoned.
+
+As already stated, the conditions which some years ago made the mastery
+of the Pacific unimportant to India no longer exist, and the safety of
+the Indian Empire depends almost as closely on the position in the
+Pacific as the safety of England does on the position in the Atlantic.
+But, except by making some references in future chapters on strategy and
+on trade to her resources and possibilities, I do not propose to attempt
+any consideration of India in this volume. That would unduly enlarge its
+scope. In these days of quick communication, both power and trade are
+very fluid, and there is really not any country of the earth which has
+not in some way an influence on the Pacific. But so far as possible I
+have sought to deal only with the direct factors.
+
+Having noted the British possessions in the North Pacific, it is
+necessary to turn south and study the young "nations of the blood" below
+the Equator before estimating British Power in the Pacific.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER VII
+
+THE BRITISH CONTINENT IN THE PACIFIC
+
+
+Those who seek to find in history the evidence of an all-wise purpose
+might gather from the fantastic history of Australasia facts to confirm
+their faith. Far back in prehistoric ages, this great island was cut
+adrift from the rest of the world and left lonely and apart in the
+Southern Pacific. A few prehistoric marsupials wandered over its
+territory and were hunted by poor nomads of men, without art or
+architecture, condemned by the conditions of their life to step aside
+from the great onward current of human evolution.
+
+Over this land the winds swept and the rains fell, and, volcanic action
+having ceased, the mountains were denuded and their deep stores of
+minerals bared until gold lay about on the surface. Coal, copper,
+silver, tin, and iron too, were made plentifully accessible. At the same
+time enormous agricultural plains were formed in the interior, but under
+climatic conditions which allowed no development of vegetable or animal
+types without organised culture by a civilised people.
+
+Nature thus seemed to work consciously for the making of a country
+uniquely fitted for civilisation by a White Race, whilst at the same
+time ensuring that its aboriginal inhabitants should not be able to
+profit by its betterment, and thus raise themselves to a degree of
+social organisation which would allow them to resist an invading White
+Race. In the year when Captain Cook acquired the Continent of Australia
+for Great Britain, it was ripe for development by civilised effort in a
+way which no other territory of the earth then was; and yet was so
+hopelessly sterile to man without machinery and the other apparatus of
+human science, that its aboriginal inhabitants were the most forlorn of
+the world's peoples, living a starveling life dependent on poor hunting,
+scanty fisheries and a few roots for existence.
+
+It needs no great stretch of fancy to see a mysterious design in the
+world-history of Australia. Here was a great area of land stuffed with
+precious and useful minerals, hidden away from the advancing
+civilisation of man as effectually as if it had been in the planet Mars.
+In other parts of the globe great civilisations rose and fell--the
+Assyrian, the Egyptian, the Chinese, the Greek, the Roman,--all drawing
+from the bowels of the earth her hidden treasures, and drawing on her
+surface riches with successive harvests. In America, the Mexican,
+Peruvian and other civilisations learned to gather from the great stocks
+of Nature, and built up fabrics of greatness from her rifled treasures.
+In Australia alone, amid dim, mysterious forests, the same prehistoric
+animals roamed, the same poor nomads of men lived and died, neither
+tilling nor mining the earth--tenants in occupation, content with a bare
+and accidental livelihood in the midst of mighty riches.
+
+Australia too was not discovered by the White Man until the moment when
+a young nation could be founded on the discovered principles of Justice.
+To complete the marvel, as it would seem, Providence ordained that its
+occupation and development should be by the one people most eminently
+fitted for the founding of a new nation on the virgin soil.
+
+The fostering care of Nature did not end there. The early settlers
+coming to Australia not only found that nothing had been drawn from the
+soil or reef, that an absolutely virgin country was theirs to exploit,
+but also were greeted by a singularly happy climate, free of all the
+diseases which afflicted older lands. Prolific Australia, with all its
+marvellous potentialities, lay open to them, with no warlike tribes to
+enforce a bloody beginning to history, no epidemics to war against, no
+savage beasts to encounter. And they were greeted by an energising
+climate which seemed to encourage the best faculties of man, just as it
+gave to harvests a wonderful richness and to herds a marvellous
+fecundity.
+
+How it came to be that such a vast area of the earth's surface, so near
+to the great Indian and Chinese civilisations, should have so long
+remained unknown, it is difficult to understand. There is faint evidence
+that the existence of the great Southern continent was guessed at in
+very early days, but no attempt at exploration or settlement was made by
+the Hindoos or the Chinese. When the Greeks, who had penetrated to India
+under Alexander the Great, returned to their homes, they brought back
+some talk of a continent south from India, and the later Greek
+literature and some Latin writers have allusions to the tale. Marco Polo
+(thirteenth century), during his voyages to the East Indies, seems to
+have heard of a Southern continent, for he speaks of a Java Major, a
+land much greater than the isle of Java (which he knew), and which was
+probably either New Guinea or Australia. On a fifteenth-century map of
+the world now in the British Museum there are indications of a knowledge
+of the existence of Australia; and it is undoubtedly included in a map
+of the world of the sixteenth century.
+
+But there was evidently no curiosity as to the suspected new continent.
+Australia to-day contains not the slightest trace of contact with
+ancient or Middle Ages civilisation. Exploration was attracted to the
+East Indies and to Cathay by the tales of spices, scents, gold, silver,
+and ivory. No such tales came from Australia. It was to prove the
+greatest gold-producing country of the world, but its natives had no
+hunger for the precious metal, though it was strewn about the ground in
+great lumps in some places. Nor did sugar, spice, and ivory come from
+the land; nor, indeed, any product of man's industry or Nature's
+bounty. Wrapped in its mysterious grey-green forests, protected by a
+coast-line which appeared always barren and inhospitable, Australia
+remained unknown until comparatively modern times.
+
+In 1581 the Spaniards, under Magalhaes, reached the Philippine Islands
+by sailing west from the South American coast. In the nature of things
+their ships would have touched the coast of Australia. In 1606 De Quiros
+and De Torres reached some of the Oceanian islands, and named one _Terra
+Austrialia del Espiritu Santo_ (the Southern Land of the Holy Spirit).
+As was the case with Columbus in his voyage of discovery to America, De
+Quiros had not touched the mainland, but his voyage gave the name
+"Australia" to the new continent.
+
+The English were late in the work of exploring the coast of Australia,
+though as far back as 1624 there is a record of Sir William Courteen
+petitioning King James I. for leave to plant colonies in "Terra
+Australis." In 1688, William Dampier, in the _Cygnet_, touched at the
+north-western coast of Australia. The next year, in H.M.S. _Roebuck_, he
+paid a visit to the new land, and, on returning to England, put on
+record his impressions of its fauna and flora. It was in 1770 that
+Captain Cook made the first landing at Botany Bay.
+
+The British nation at the time could find no use for Australia. Annexed
+in 1770 it was not colonised until 1787, when the idea was adopted of
+using the apparently sterile and miserable Southern continent as a
+depôt for enforced exiles. It was a happy chance that sent a "racketty"
+element of British social life to be the first basis of the new
+Australian population. The poachers, English Chartists, Irish Fenians,
+Scottish land rebels (who formed the majority of the convicts sent to
+Australia) were good as nation-building material.
+
+There was work to do there in the Pacific, there is further work in the
+future, which calls for elements of audacity, of contempt for
+convention, which are being worked out of the average British type.
+There could be no greater contrast between, say, a London suburbanite,
+whose life travels along an endless maze of little gravel paths between
+fences and trimly-kept hedges, and the Australian of the "back country,"
+who any day may ride out solitary on a week's journey into a great
+sun-baked wilderness, his life and that of his dog and his two horses
+dependent on the accurate finding of a series of water-holes: his joy in
+existence coming from the solitude and the desert, the companionship of
+his three animals, his tobacco, and the thought of his "mate" somewhere,
+whom he would meet after six months' absence with a handshake and a
+monosyllable by way of greeting, and yet with the love of a fond
+brother.
+
+That London suburbanite gives the key to his kindly and softly
+sentimental character in his subscription to a society which devotes
+itself to seeing that the suburban house cat is not left shut up without
+food when a family goes away on holidays. That Australian shows how far
+he has reverted to the older human type of relentless purpose when, in
+the pursuit of his calling, he puts ten thousand sheep to the chance of
+death from thirst. It is not that he is needlessly cruel, but that he is
+sternly resolute. The same man would share his last water with his dog
+in the desert to give both an equal chance of life. He feels the misery
+of beasts but says nothing, and allows it to interfere nothing with his
+purpose.
+
+There is a story of a clergyman coming to a back-country station in
+Australia during the agony of a great drought. He asked of the squatter
+permission to hold prayers for rain in the woolshed. The squatter turned
+on him, fiercely gripping him by the arm.
+
+"Listen!" he cried.
+
+From all around came the hoarse, pitiful lowing and bleating of
+thousands of animals dying of thirst and hunger.
+
+"Listen! If the Almighty does not hear _that_, will he hear us?"
+
+That is the type of man, bred from the wilder types of the British race,
+who is the backbone of the Australian population, and who will be the
+backbone of the resistance which the White Man will make to any overflow
+of Asia along the Pacific littoral.
+
+The Australian took instinctively to his task in the work of White
+civilisation--that of keeping the Asiatic out of Australia. In the early
+days of the goldfields, the Chinese began to crowd to the continent, and
+some squatters of those days designed to introduce them as cheap and
+reliable shepherds. The mass of the White population protested, with
+riot and rebellion in some cases. At one time it seemed as though the
+guns of British warships would fire on Australian citizens in
+vindication of the right of Chinese to enter Australia. But maternal
+affection was stronger than logic. The cause of "White Australia" had
+its way; and by poll taxes and other restrictive legislation any great
+influx of Asiatics was stopped. At a later date the laws regarding alien
+immigration were so strengthened that it is now almost impossible for a
+coloured man to enter Australia as a colonist, even though he be a
+British subject and a graduate of Oxford University.
+
+Around the ethics of the "White Australia" policy there has raged a
+fierce controversy. But it is certain that, without that policy, without
+an instinctive revolt on the part of the Australian colonists against
+any intrusion of coloured races, Australia would be to-day an Asiatic
+colony, still nominally held, perhaps, by a small band of White
+suzerains, but ripe to fall at any moment into the hands of its
+10,000,000 or 20,000,000 Asiatic inhabitants.
+
+Instead of that, Australia is at once the fortress which the White Race
+has thinly garrisoned against an Asiatic advance southward, and the most
+tempting prize to inspire the Asiatic to that advance. There is not the
+least doubt that, given Australia, Japan could establish a power
+threatening the very greatest in Europe. Her fecund people within a
+couple of generations would people the coast-line and prepare for the
+colonisation of the interior. Rich fields and rich mines put at the
+disposal of a frugal and industrious people would yield enormous
+material wealth.
+
+An organised China would put the island continent to even greater use.
+But there Australia is, held by a tiny White population, which increases
+very slowly (for men and women have the ideas of comfort and luxury
+which lead to small families), but which is now fairly awake to the fact
+that on the bosom of the Pacific and along its shores will be fought the
+great race battles of the future.
+
+It is curious for the peoples of Europe, accustomed to associate extreme
+democracy and socialistic leanings with ideals of pacificism and
+"international brotherhood," to observe the warlike spirit of the
+Australian peoples. There are no folk more "advanced" in politics. Their
+ideal is frankly stated to be to make a "working man's Paradise" of the
+continent. Yet they are entering cheerfully on a great naval
+expenditure, and their adoption of a system of universal training for
+military service provides the only instance, except that of Switzerland,
+where the responsibility of national defence is freely accepted by the
+citizen manhood of the nation.
+
+Universal training for military service in Australia, legally enforced
+in 1909, was made inevitable in 1903, when in taking over the
+administration of the defences the first Commonwealth Government
+provided in its Defence Act for the levying of the whole male population
+for service in case of war. That provision was evidence of the wholesome
+and natural view taken by Australians of the citizen's duty to his
+nation. It was also evidence of an ignorance of, or a blindness to, the
+conditions of modern campaigning. Raw levies, if equipped with courage
+and hardihood, could be of almost immediate usefulness in the warfare of
+a century ago. To-day they would be worse than useless, a burden on the
+commissariat, no support in the field. The logical Australian mind was
+quick to recognise this. Within five years it was established that,
+admitting a universal duty to serve, a necessary sequence was universal
+training for service.
+
+One argument the Australian advocates of universal service had not to
+meet. In that pioneer country the feeling which is responsible for a
+kind of benevolent cosmopolitanism, and finds expression in Peace
+Societies, had little chance of growth. The direct conflict with Nature
+had brought a sense of the reality of life's struggle, of its reality
+and of its essential beauty. There is no maundering horror of the
+natural facts of existence. Australian veins when scratched bleed red
+blood, not a pale ichor of Olympus. The combative instinct is recognised
+as a part of human nature, a necessary and valuable part. That
+defencelessness is the best means of defence would never occur to the
+Australian as being anything but an absurd idea. He recognises the part
+which the combative instinct has played, the part it still must play in
+civilisation: how in its various phases it has assisted man in his
+upward path; how it has still some part to play in the preservation and
+further evolution of civilisation.
+
+The original fighting instinct was purely brutal--a rough deadly
+scramble for food. But it undoubtedly had its value in securing the
+survival of the best types for the propagation of the species. With its
+first great refinement, in becoming the fight for mateship, the
+combative instinct was still more valuable to evolution. The next step,
+when fights came to be for ideas, marked a rapid growth of civilisation.
+Exclude chivalry, patriotism, Imperialism, from the motives of the
+world, and there would never have been a great civilisation.
+
+A distinguished British statesman spoke the other day of the expenditure
+on armaments as possibly a sign of "relapsing into barbarism." He might
+more truly have described it as an insurance against barbarism--at once
+a sign of the continued existence of the forces which made civilisation,
+and a proof that the advanced races are prepared to guard with the sword
+what they have won by the sword. The Pacific has seen the tragedy of one
+nation which, having won to a suave and graceful civilisation, came to
+utter ruin through the elimination of the combative instinct from its
+people. The Peruvians had apparently everything to make life happy: but
+because they had eliminated the fighting instinct their civilisation was
+shattered to fragments in a year by the irruption of a handful of
+Spaniards.
+
+The Australian feels that safety and independence must be paid for with
+strength, and not with abjectness. He does not wish to be another
+Peruvian: and he builds up his socialistic Utopia with a sword in one
+hand as was built a temple of Jerusalem.
+
+Some doubt having arisen in the Australian mind, after a system of
+universal training had been adopted, whether the scheme of training was
+sufficient, the greatest organiser of the British Army, Field Marshal
+Lord Kitchener, was asked to visit the Commonwealth and report on that
+point. His report suggested some slight changes, which were promptly
+adopted, but on the whole he approved thoroughly of the proposed scheme,
+though it provided periods of training which seem startlingly small to
+the European soldier. But Lord Kitchener agreed, as every other
+competent observer has agreed, that the Australian is so much of a
+natural soldier owing to his pioneering habit of life, that it takes but
+little special military discipline to make him an effective fighting
+unit.
+
+Committed to a military system which will, in a short time, make some
+200,000 citizens soldiers available in case of need, Australia's martial
+enthusiasm finds expression also in a naval programme which is of great
+magnitude for so small a people. In July 1909, an Imperial Conference on
+Defence met in London, and the British Admiralty brought down certain
+proposals for Imperial naval co-operation. _Inter alia_, the British
+Admiralty memorandum stated:--
+
+"In the opinion of the Admiralty, a Dominion Government desirous of
+creating a Navy should aim at forming a distinct Fleet unit; and the
+smallest unit is one which, while manageable in time of peace, is
+capable of being used in its component parts in the time of war.
+
+"Under certain conditions the establishment of local defence flotillas,
+consisting of torpedo craft and submarines, might be of assistance in
+time of war to the operations of the Fleet, but such flotillas cannot
+co-operate on the high seas in the wider duties of protection of trade
+and preventing attacks from hostile cruisers and squadrons. The
+operations of Destroyers and torpedo-boats are necessarily limited to
+the waters near the coast or to a radius of action not far distant from
+a base, while there are great difficulties in manning such a force and
+keeping it always thoroughly efficient.
+
+"A scheme limited to torpedo craft would not in itself, moreover, be a
+good means of gradually developing a self-contained Fleet capable of
+both offence and defence. Unless a naval force--whatever its
+size--complies with this condition, it can never take its proper place
+in the organisation of an Imperial Navy distributed strategically over
+the whole area of British interests.
+
+"The Fleet unit to be aimed at should, therefore, in the opinion of the
+Admiralty, consist at least of the following: one armoured cruiser (new
+_Indomitable_ class, which is of the _Dreadnought_ type), three
+unarmoured cruisers (_Bristol_ class), six destroyers, three submarines,
+with the necessary auxiliaries such as depôt and store ships, etc.,
+which are not here specified.
+
+"Such a Fleet unit would be capable of action not only in the defence of
+coasts, but also of the trade routes, and would be sufficiently powerful
+to deal with small hostile squadrons, should such ever attempt to act in
+its waters.
+
+"Simply to man such a squadron, omitting auxiliary requirements and any
+margin for reliefs, sickness, etc., the minimum numbers required would
+be about 2300 officers and men, according to the Admiralty scheme of
+complements.
+
+"The estimated first cost of building and arming such a complete Fleet
+unit would be approximately £3,700,000, and the cost of maintenance,
+including upkeep of vessels, pay, and interest and sinking fund, at
+British rates, approximately £600,000 per annum.
+
+"The estimated cost of the officers and men required to man the ships
+does not comprise the whole cost. There would be other charges to be
+provided for, such as the pay of persons employed in subsidiary
+services, those undergoing training, sick, in reserve, etc.
+
+"As the armoured cruiser is the essential part of the Fleet unit, it is
+important that an _Indomitable_ of the _Dreadnought_ type should be the
+first vessel to be built in commencing the formation of a Fleet unit.
+She should be officered and manned, as far as possible, by Colonial
+officers and men, supplemented by the loan of Imperial officers and men
+who might volunteer for the service. While on the station the ship would
+be under the exclusive control of the Dominion Government as regards her
+movements and general administration, but officers and men would be
+governed by regulations similar to the King's Regulations, and be under
+naval discipline. The question of pay and allowances would have to be
+settled on lines the most suitable to each Dominion Government
+concerned. The other vessels, when built, would be treated in the same
+manner.
+
+"It is recognised that, to carry out completely such a scheme as that
+indicated, would ultimately mean a greater charge for naval defence than
+that which the Dominions have hitherto borne; but, on the other hand,
+the building of a _Dreadnought_ (or its equivalent), which certain
+Governments have offered to undertake, would form part of the scheme,
+and therefore, as regards the most expensive item of the shipbuilding
+programme suggested, no additional cost to those Governments would be
+involved.
+
+"_Pari passu_ with the creation of the Fleet unit, it would be necessary
+to consider the development of local resources in everything which
+relates to the maintenance of a Fleet. A careful inquiry should be made
+into the shipbuilding and repairing establishments, with a view to their
+general adaptation to the needs of the local squadron. Training schools
+for officers and men would have to be established; arrangements would
+have to be made for the manufacture, supply, and replenishment of the
+various naval, ordnance, and victualling stores required by the
+squadron.
+
+"All these requirements might be met according to the views of the
+Dominion Governments, in so far as the form and manner of the provision
+made are concerned. But as regards shipbuilding, armaments, and warlike
+stores, etc., on the one hand, and training and discipline in peace and
+war, on the other, there should be one common standard. If the Fleet
+unit maintained by a Dominion is to be treated as an integral part of
+the Imperial forces, with a wide range of interchangeability among its
+component parts with those forces, its general efficiency should be the
+same, and the facilities for refitting and replenishing His Majesty's
+ships, whether belonging to a Dominion Fleet or to the Fleet of the
+United Kingdom, should be the same. Further, as it is a _sine quâ non_
+that successful action in time of war depends upon unity of command and
+direction, the general discipline must be the same throughout the whole
+Imperial service, and without this it would not be possible to arrange
+for that mutual co-operation and assistance which would be
+indispensable in the building up and establishing of a local naval force
+in close connection with the Royal Navy. It has been recognised by the
+Colonial Governments that, in time of war, the local naval forces should
+come under the general directions of the Admiralty."
+
+The Commonwealth of Australia representatives accepted in full the
+proposals as set forth in the Admiralty memorandum. It was agreed that
+the Australian Fleet unit thus constituted should form part of the
+Eastern Fleet of the Empire, to be composed of similar units of the
+Royal Navy, to be known as the China and the East Indies units
+respectively, and the Australian unit.
+
+The initial cost was estimated to be approximately:
+
+ 1 armoured cruiser (new _Indomitable_ class).        £2,000,000
+ 3 unarmoured cruisers (_Bristols_) at £350,000.       1,050,000
+ 6 destroyers (_River_ class) at £80,000                 480,000
+ 3 submarines (_C_ class) at £55,000                     165,000
+                                                      ----------
+                                              Total   £3,695,000
+
+The annual expenditure in connection with the maintenance of the Fleet
+unit, pay of personnel, and interest on first cost and sinking fund, was
+estimated to be about £600,000, to which amount a further additional sum
+would have to be added in view of the higher rates of pay in Australia
+and the cost of training and subsidiary establishments, making an
+estimated total of £750,000 a year.
+
+The Imperial Government, until such time as the Commonwealth could take
+over the whole cost, offered to assist the Commonwealth Government by an
+annual contribution of £250,000 towards the maintenance of the complete
+Fleet unit; but the offer was refused, and the Australian taxpayer took
+on the whole burden at once.
+
+Still not content, the Australian Government arranged for a British
+Admiral of standing to visit the Commonwealth and report on its naval
+needs. His report suggested the quick construction of a Fleet and of
+docks, etc., involving an expenditure, within a very short time, of
+£28,000,000. There was no grumbling at this from the Labour Party
+Government then in power. "We have called in a doctor. We must take his
+prescription," said one of the Australian Cabinet philosophically.
+
+The Australian, so aggressive in his patriotism, so determined in his
+warlike preparations, so fitted by heredity and environment for martial
+exploits, is to-day the greatest factor in the Southern Pacific. His
+aggressiveness, which is almost truculence, is a guarantee that the
+British Empire will never be allowed to withdraw from a sphere into
+which it entered reluctantly. It will be necessary to point out in a
+future chapter how the failure, so far, of the Australian colonists to
+people their continent adequately constitutes one of the grave dangers
+to the British Power in the Pacific. That failure has been the prompting
+for much criticism. It has led to some extraordinary proposals being
+put forward in Great Britain, one of the latest being that half of
+Australia should be made over to Germany as a peace offering! But, apart
+from all failures and neglect of the past (which may be remedied for the
+future: indeed are now in process of remedy), Australia is probably
+potentially the greatest asset of the British race. Her capacity as a
+varied food producer in particular gives her value. There is much talk
+in the world to-day of "places in the sun." Claims founded on national
+pride are put forward for the right to expand. Very soon there must be a
+far more weighty and dangerous clamour for "places at table," for the
+right to share in the food lands of the Earth. Populations begin to
+press against their boundaries. Modern science has helped the race of
+man to reach numbers once considered impossible. Machinery, preventive
+medicine, surgery, sanitation, all have helped to raise vastly his
+numbers. The feeding of these increasing numbers becomes with each year
+a more difficult problem. Territories do not stretch with populations.
+Even the comparatively new nation of the United States finds her food
+supply and raw material supply tightening, and has just been checked in
+an attempt to obtain a lien on the natural resources of the British
+Dominion of Canada. Now, excluding manufactures, the 4½ million people
+of Australia produce wealth from farm and field and mine to the total of
+£134,500,000 a year. Those 4½ millions could be raised to 40 millions
+without much lessening of the average rate of production (only mining
+and forestry would be affected).
+
+The food production possibilities of Australia make her of enormous
+future importance. They make her, too, the object of the bitterest envy
+on the part of the overcrowded, hungry peoples of the Asiatic littoral.
+The Continent must be held by the British race. It would appear to be
+almost as certain that it must be attacked one day by an Asiatic race.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER VIII
+
+NEW ZEALAND AND THE SMALLER BRITISH PACIFIC COLONIES
+
+
+A thousand miles east of Australia is another aggressive young democracy
+preparing to arm to the teeth for the conflict of the Pacific, and eager
+to embark upon a policy of forward Imperialism on its own account: with
+aspirations, indeed, to be made overlord of all the Pacific islands
+under the British Flag.
+
+New Zealand had a softer beginning than Australia, and did not win,
+therefore, the advantages and disadvantages springing from the wild type
+of colonists who gave to the Australian Commonwealth a sturdy
+foundation. Nor has New Zealand the "Bush" conditions which make the
+back-country Australian quite a distinct type of white man. On those hot
+plains of Australia, cruel to a first knowledge, very rich in profit and
+welcome to the man who learns their secrets, most potent of attraction
+with familiarity and mastery, Nature exacts from man a resolute wooing
+before she grants a smile of favour. But, once conquered, she responds
+with most generous lavishness. In return, however, she sets her stamp
+on the men who come to her favour, and they show that stamp on their
+faces. Thin, wiry, with deep-set peering eyes, they suggest sun-dried
+men. But whilst leaching out the fat and softness from them, Nature has
+compensated the "Bush" Australians with an enduring vitality. No other
+men, probably, of the world's peoples could stand such strain of work,
+of hunger, of thirst. No men have finer nerves, greater courage. They
+must dice with Death for their lives, time and again staking all on
+their endurance, and on the chance of the next water-hole being still
+unparched. This gives them a contempt of danger, and some contempt of
+life, which shows in a cruel touch in their character.
+
+Imagine a white man who, keeping all his education and maintaining his
+sympathy with modern science and modern thought, withal reverts in some
+characteristics to the type of the Bedouin of the desert, and you have
+the typical Australian Bushman. He is fierce in his friendships, stern
+in his enmities, passionately fond of his horse, so contemptuous of
+dwellings that he will often refuse to sleep in them, Arabian in his
+hospitality, fatalistic in his philosophy. He has been known to inflict
+torture on a native whom he suspects of concealing the whereabouts of a
+water-hole, and yet will almost kill himself to get help for a mate in
+need. He is so independent that he hates working for a "boss," and will
+rarely take work on wages, preferring to live as his own master, by
+hunting or fossicking, or by undertaking contract work for forest
+clearing.
+
+There is material for a great warrior nation in these Bushmen, with
+their capacity for living anyhow, their deadliness as shots, their
+perfect command of the horse, their Stoic cruelty which would enable
+them to face any hardship without flinching, and to inflict any revenge
+without remorse.
+
+New Zealand has not the "Bushman" type. But as some compensation, the
+early New Zealand settlers had the advantage of meeting at the very
+outset an effective savage. The Australian learned all his hardihood
+from Nature; the New Zealand colonist had the Maori to teach him, not
+only self-reliance but community reliance. Whilst Nature was very kind
+to him, sparing the infliction of the drought, giving always a
+reasonable surety of food, he was obliged to walk warily in fear of the
+powerful and warlike Maori tribes. The phenomenon, so frequent in
+Australia, of a squatter leading his family, his flocks, and his herds
+out into the wilderness and fighting out there, alone, a battle with
+Nature was rare in New Zealand. There the White settlers were forced
+into groups by the fear of and respect for the Maoris. From the first
+they knew the value of a fortified post. Until a very late period of
+their history they saw frequently the uniforms of troops from Great
+Britain helping them to garrison the towns against the natives.
+
+As was the case with Australia, the British Empire was very reluctant to
+assume control of New Zealand. Captain Cook, who annexed Australia in
+1770, had visited New Zealand in 1769, but had not acquired it formally
+for the British Crown. The same explorer returned to New Zealand several
+years after. But from the date of his last departure, 1776, three
+decades passed before any White settlement was attempted. In 1788 the
+colonisation of Australia was begun, but it was not until 1814 that a
+small body of Europeans left Sydney and settled in New Zealand. The Rev.
+Samuel Marsden, who had been Chaplain to the Convict Colony of New South
+Wales, was the leader of the band, and its mission was to Christianise
+the natives. A little later the Wesleyan Church founded a Mission in the
+same neighbourhood. In 1825 a Company was formed in London to colonise
+New Zealand, and it sent away a band of pioneers in the ship _Rosanna_.
+The wild mien of the natives so thoroughly frightened these colonists
+that almost all of them returned to England. Desultory efforts at
+settlement followed, small bands of British subjects forming tiny
+stations at various points of the New Zealand coast, and getting on as
+well as they might with the natives, for they had no direct protection
+from the British Government, which was entirely opposed to any idea of
+annexing the group. There was no fever for expansion in England at the
+time. The United States had broken away. Canada seemed to be on the
+point of secession. The new settlement in Australia promised little. But
+the hand of the British Government was destined to be forced in the
+matter, and, willy-nilly, Britain had to take over a country which is
+now one of her most valued possessions.
+
+Mr Edward Gibbon Wakefield was responsible for forcing on the British
+Government the acquisition of New Zealand. The era was one of
+philanthropy and keen thought for social reform in Great Britain. The
+doctrines of the French Revolution still reverberated through Europe,
+and the rights of humanity were everywhere preached to men confronted
+with the existence of great social misery, which seemed to deny to the
+majority of mankind even the degree of comfort enjoyed by animals.
+Wakefield's remedy was the emigration of the surplus population of the
+British islands--well, the British islands except Ireland, to which
+country and its inhabitants Wakefield had an invincible antipathy. The
+prospectus of the Company to colonise New Zealand stated:
+
+"The aim of this Company is not confined to mere emigration, but is
+directed to colonisation in its ancient and systematic form. Its object
+is to transplant English society with its various graduations in due
+proportions, carrying out our laws, customs, associations, habits,
+manners, feelings--everything of England, in short, but the soil. We
+desire so now to cast the foundations of the colony that in a few
+generations New Zealand shall offer to the world a counterpart of our
+country in all the most cherished peculiarities of our own social system
+and national character, as well as in wealth and power."
+
+In due time twelve ships carrying 1125 people sailed for New Zealand.
+That was the beginning of a steady flow of emigrants mostly recruited by
+various Churches, and settled in groups in different parts of the New
+Zealand islands--members of the Free Church of Scotland at Otago, of the
+Church of England at Canterbury, men of Devon and Cornwall men at New
+Plymouth.
+
+The British Government could hardly shake off all responsibility for
+these exiles. But it did its best to avoid annexation, and even adopted
+the remarkable expedient of recognising the Maoris as a nation, and
+encouraging them to choose a national standard. The Maori Flag was
+actually flown on the high seas for a while, and at least on one
+occasion received a salute from a British warship. But no standard could
+give a settled polity to a group of savage tribes. The experiment of
+setting up "The Independent Tribes of New Zealand" as a nation failed.
+In 1840, Great Britain formally took over the New Zealand islands from
+the natives under the treaty of Waitangi, which is said to be the only
+treaty on record between a white race and a coloured race which has been
+faithfully kept to this day.
+
+"This famous instrument," writes a New Zealand critic, "by which the
+Maoris, at a time when they were apparently unconquerable, voluntarily
+ceded sovereign rights over their country to Queen Victoria, is
+practically the only compact between a civilised and an uncivilised race
+which has been regarded and honoured through generations of
+difficulties, distrust, and even warfare. By guaranteeing to the Maori
+the absolute ownership of their patrimonial lands and the enjoyment of
+their ancestral rights and customs, it enabled them to take their place
+as fully enfranchised citizens of the British Empire, and to present the
+solitary example of a dark race surviving contact with a white, and
+associating with it on terms of mutual regard, equality and unquestioned
+loyalty. The measure of this relationship is evident from the fact that
+Maori interests are represented by educated natives in both houses of
+the New Zealand Parliament and in the Ministry. The strict observance of
+the Treaty of Waitangi is part and parcel of the national faith of the
+New Zealanders, and a glorious monument to the high qualities of one of
+the finest races of aboriginal peoples the world has ever seen."
+
+The New Zealand colonists, having won the blessing of the British Flag,
+were not well content. Very shortly afterwards we find Mr James Edward
+FitzGerald writing to Wakefield, who was contemplating a trip to New
+Zealand.
+
+"After all, this place is but a village. Its politics are not large
+enough for you. But there are politics on this side the world which
+would be so. It seems unquestionable that in the course of a very few
+years--sometimes I think months--the Australian colonies will declare
+their independence. We shall live to see an Australasian Empire
+rivalling the United States in greatness, wealth and power. There is a
+field for great statesmen. Only yesterday I was saying, talking about
+you, that if you come across the world it must be to Australia; just in
+time to draw up the Declaration of Independence."
+
+But that phase passed. New Zealand to-day emulates Australia in a
+fervent Imperial patriotism, and at the 1911 Imperial Conference her
+Prime Minister, Sir Joseph Ward, was responsible for the following
+proposal which was too forward in its Imperialism to be immediately
+acceptable to his fellow delegates:
+
+"That the Empire has now reached a stage of Imperial development which
+renders it expedient that there should be an Imperial Council of State,
+with representatives from all the self-governing parts of the Empire, in
+theory and in fact advisory to the Imperial Government on all questions
+affecting the interests of his Majesty's Dominions oversea."
+
+He urged the resolution on the following grounds:
+
+(1) Imperial unity; (2) organised Imperial defence; (3) the equal
+distribution of the burden of defence throughout the Empire; (4) the
+representation of self-governing oversea Dominions in an Imperial
+Parliament of defence for the purpose of determining peace or war, the
+contributions to Imperial defence, foreign policy as far as it affects
+the Empire, international treaties so far as they affect the Empire, and
+such other Imperial matters as might by agreement be transferred to such
+Parliament.
+
+In advocating his resolution Sir Joseph Ward made an interesting
+forecast of the future of the British nations whose shores were washed
+by the Pacific. He estimated that if the present rate of increase were
+maintained, Canada would have in twenty-five years from now between
+30,000,000 and 40,000,000 inhabitants. In Australia, South Africa, and
+New Zealand the proportionate increase could not be expected to be so
+great, but he believed that in twenty-five years' time the combined
+population of those oversea Dominions would be much greater than that of
+the United Kingdom. Those who controlled the destinies of the British
+Empire would have to consider before many years had passed the expansion
+of these oversea countries into powerful nations, all preserving their
+own local autonomy, all being governed to suit the requirements of the
+people within their own territory, but all deeply concerned in keeping
+together in some loose form of federation to serve the general interests
+of all parts of the Empire.
+
+At a later stage, in reply to Sir Wilfrid Laurier, Prime Minister of
+Canada, Sir Joseph Ward indulged in an even more optimistic prophecy.
+The United States, he said, had something like 100,000,000 people. The
+prospective possibility of Canada for settlement purposes was not less
+than that of the United States, and the Dominion was capable of holding
+a population of 100,000,000 in the future. Australia also was capable of
+holding a similar number, although it would necessarily be a great
+number of years before that position was reached. South Africa, too,
+could hold 100,000,000 people. It was no exaggeration to suggest that
+those three Dominions were capable of holding 300,000,000 of people with
+great comfort as compared with certain overcrowded countries. New
+Zealand, in the opinion of many well-qualified men, could carry upwards
+of 40,000,000 people with comparative ease and comfort.
+
+But these figures are hardly scientific. Climatic and other
+considerations will prevent Canada from reaching quite the same degree
+of greatness as the United States. British South Africa could "hold"
+100,000,000 people, but it could not support them on present
+appearances. The possibilities of Australian settlement are difficult to
+be exaggerated in view of the steady dwindling of the "desert" area in
+the light of recent research and exploration, and of the fact that all
+her area is blessed with a genial climate. New Zealand, to keep
+40,000,000 people, would need, however, to have a density of 400 people
+per square mile, a density surpassed to-day in Belgium and Holland but
+not reached by Great Britain. A fairly conservative estimate of the
+possibilities of the British Empire would allow it for the future a
+white population of 200,000,000, of whom at least half would be grouped
+near the shores of the Pacific. Presuming a British Imperial Federation
+on Sir Joseph Ward's lines with such a population, and the mastery of
+the Pacific would be settled. But that is for the future, the far
+future.
+
+Sir Joseph Ward, in the event, was not able to carry the Imperial
+Conference with him, the majority of the delegates considering that the
+time had not yet come for the organisation of an Imperial Federal
+system. But it is possible that with the passing of time and the growth
+of the population of the Dominions overseas, some such system may
+evolve: and a British Empire Parliament may sit one day at Westminster,
+at Vancouver or at Sydney. Certainly the likelihood is that the
+numerical balance of the British race will shift one day from the
+Atlantic to the Pacific.
+
+Following Australia's example, New Zealand has adopted a system of
+universal training for military service, but there are indications that
+she will not enforce it quite so rigorously as her neighbour. In the
+matter of naval defence, at the Conference of 1909 the New Zealand
+attitude was thus defined by her Prime Minister:--
+
+"I favour one great Imperial Navy with all the Overseas Dominions
+contributing, either in ships or money, and with naval stations at the
+self-governing Dominions supplied with ships by and under the control of
+the Admiralty. I, however, realise the difficulties, and recognise that
+Australia and Canada in this important matter are doing that which their
+respective Governments consider to be best; but the fact remains that
+the alterations that will be brought about upon the establishment of an
+Australian unit will alter the present position with New Zealand.
+
+"New Zealand's maritime interests in her own waters, and her dependent
+islands in the Pacific would, under the altered arrangements, be almost
+entirely represented by the Australian Fleet unit, and not, as at
+present, by the Imperial Fleet. This important fact, I consider,
+necessitates some suitable provision being made for New Zealand, which
+country has the most friendly feeling in every respect for Australia and
+her people, and I am anxious that in the initiation of new arrangements
+with the Imperial Government under the altered conditions, the interests
+of New Zealand should not be over-looked. I consider it my duty to point
+this out, and to have the direct connection between New Zealand and the
+Royal Navy maintained in some concrete form.
+
+"New Zealand will supply a _Dreadnought_ for the British Navy as already
+offered, the ship to be under the control of and stationed wherever the
+Admiralty considers advisable.
+
+"I fully realise that the creation of specific units, one in the East,
+one in Australia, and, if possible, one in Canada, would be a great
+improvement upon the existing condition of affairs, and the fact that
+the New Zealand _Dreadnought_ was to be the flag-ship of the
+China-Pacific unit is, in my opinion, satisfactory. I, however, consider
+it is desirable that a portion of the China-Pacific unit should remain
+in New Zealand waters, and I would suggest that two of the new "Bristol"
+cruisers, together with three destroyers and two submarines, should be
+detached from the China station in time of peace and stationed in New
+Zealand waters; that these vessels should come under the flag of the
+Admiral of the China unit; that the flagship should make periodical
+visits to New Zealand waters; and that there should be an interchange in
+the service of the cruisers between New Zealand and China, under
+conditions to be laid down.
+
+"The ships should be manned, as far as possible, by New Zealand officers
+and men, and, in order that New Zealanders might be attracted to serve
+in the Fleet, local rates should be paid to those New Zealanders who
+enter, in the same manner as under the present Australian and New
+Zealand agreement, such local rates being treated as deferred pay.
+
+"The determination of the agreement with Australia has, of necessity,
+brought up the position of New Zealand under that joint agreement. I
+therefore suggest that on completion of the China unit, the present
+agreement with New Zealand should cease, that its contribution of
+£100,000 per annum should continue and be used to pay the difference in
+the rates of pay to New Zealanders above what would be paid under the
+ordinary British rate. If the contribution for the advanced rate of pay
+did not amount to £100,000 per annum, any balance to be at the disposal
+of the Admiralty.
+
+"The whole of this Fleet unit to be taken in hand and completed before
+the end of 1912, and I should be glad if the squadron as a whole would
+then visit New Zealand on the way to China, leaving the New Zealand
+detachment there under its senior officer."
+
+From the difference between the naval arrangements of Australia and New
+Zealand can be gathered some hints of the difference between the
+national characteristics of the two young nations. Australia is
+aggressively independent in all her arrangements: loyal to the British
+Empire and determined to help its aims in every way, but to help after
+her own fashion and with armies and navies recruited and trained by
+herself. New Zealand, with an equal Imperial zeal, has not the same
+national self-consciousness and is willing to allow her share of naval
+defence to take the form of a cash payment. Probably the most effective
+naval policy of New Zealand would be founded on a close partnership with
+Australia, the two nations combining to maintain one Fleet. But that New
+Zealand does not seem to desire. She is, however, content to be a
+partner with Australia in one detail of military administration. The
+military college for the training of officers at the Australian Federal
+capital is shared with New Zealand. The present Prime Minister of
+Australia, Mr Fisher, is taking steps towards securing a closer defence
+bond with New Zealand.[4]
+
+In an aspiration towards forward Imperialism, New Zealand is fully at
+one with Australia. But she has the idea that the control of the
+Southern Pacific, outside of the continent of Australia, is the right of
+New Zealand, and dreams of a New Zealand Empire embracing the island
+groups of Polynesia. It will be one of the problems of the future for
+the British Power to restrain the exuberant racial pride of these South
+Pacific nations, who see nothing in the European situation which should
+interfere with a full British control of the South Pacific.
+
+In addition to Australia and New Zealand, the British Empire has a
+number of minor possessions in the South Pacific. In regard to almost
+all of them, the same tale of reluctant acceptance has to be told. New
+Guinea was annexed by the Colony of Queensland, anxious to set on foot a
+foreign policy of her own, in 1883. The British Government repudiated
+the annexation, and in the following year reluctantly consented to take
+over for the Empire a third of the great island on condition that the
+Australian States agreed to guarantee the cost of the administration of
+the new possession. The Fiji Group was offered to Great Britain by King
+Thakombau in 1859, and was refused. Some English settlers then began to
+administer the group on a system of constitutional government under
+Thakombau. It was not until 1874 that the British Government accepted
+these rich islands, and then somewhat ungraciously and reluctantly,
+influenced to the decision by the fact that the alternative was German
+acquisition.
+
+It was no affectation of coyness on the part of the successive British
+Governments which dictated a refusal when South Pacific annexations were
+mooted. Time after time it was made clear that the Home Country wanted
+no responsibilities there. Yet to-day, as the result mainly of the
+impulse of Empire and adventure in individual British men, the British
+Flag flies over the whole continent of Australia, Tasmania, New Zealand,
+a part of New Guinea, Fiji, and the Ellice, Gilbert, Kermadec, Friendly,
+Chatham, Cook, and many other groups. It is a strange instance of
+greatness thrust upon a people.
+
+FOOTNOTES:
+
+[4] Since writing, in March 1912, there has been an attempt on the part
+of the Australian Prime Minister to come to some closer naval
+arrangement with New Zealand; and the attempt seems to promise to be
+successful.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER IX
+
+THE NATIVE RACES
+
+
+The native races of the South Pacific, with the possible exception of
+the Maori, will have no influence in settling the destiny of the ocean.
+Neither the Australian aboriginal nor the Kanaka--under which last
+general title may be grouped all the tribes of Papua, the Solomons, the
+New Hebrides and other Oceanic islands--will provide the foundation of a
+nation. It is one of the curiosities of world-history that no great race
+has ever survived which had its origin in a land south of the Equator.
+From the earliest civilisations to the latest, there is not a single
+instance of a people of the southern hemisphere exercising any notable
+effect on the world's destinies. Sometimes there seems no adequate
+reason for this. That Africa north of the Equator should have produced a
+great civilisation, which was the early guide and instructor of the
+European civilisations, may be explained in part by the curious
+phenomenon of the Nile delta, a tract of land the irrigation of which at
+regular intervals by mysterious natural forces prompted inquiry, and
+suggested that all the asperities of Nature could be softened by effort.
+(The spirit of inquiry and the desire for artificial comfort are the
+great promptings to civilisation.) But it is difficult to understand why
+in America the aboriginal Mexicans should have been so much more warlike
+than the Peruvians or any other people in South America; and why the
+West Pacific should wash with its northern waters the lands of two great
+races, and with its southern waters flow past lands which, though of
+greater fertility, remained almost empty, or else were peopled by
+childlike races, careless of progress and keen only to enjoy the simple
+happiness offered by Nature's bounty.
+
+The Australian aboriginal race is rapidly dwindling: one of its
+branches, that which populated the fertile and temperate island of
+Tasmania, is already extinct. In Tasmania, reacting to the influence of
+a mild and yet stimulating climate, a climate comparable with that of
+Devon in England, but more sunny, the Australasian native had won to his
+highest point of development. Apparently, too, he had won to his highest
+possible point, for there is evidence that for many generations no
+progress at all had been made towards civilisation. Yet that point was
+so low in the stage of evolution that it was impossible for the poor
+natives to take any part, either as a separate race, or by mingling
+their blood with another race, in the future of the Pacific. The black
+Australian is a primitive rather than a degraded man. Most ethnologists
+have concluded that this black Australian is a Caucasian. Wallace
+ascribes to him kinship with the Veddas and the Ainus of Asia. Stratz
+takes the Australian as the prototype of all the races of man.
+Schoetensack contends that the human race had its origin in the
+Australian continent.
+
+But, however dignified by ancestry, the Australian aboriginal was
+pathetically out of touch with modern civilisation. He broke down
+utterly at its advent, not so much because of his bad qualities as
+because of his childishness. Not only were alcohol, opium and greed
+strange to him, but also weapons of steel and horses and clothing. He
+had never learnt to dig, to build, to weave. War organisation had not
+been thought of, and his tribal fights were prodigal of noise but
+sparing of slaughter. When the White Man came, it was inevitable that
+this simple primitive should dwindle from the face of the earth. It is
+not possible to hold out any hope for the future of the Australian
+blacks. They can never emulate the Maoris of New Zealand, who will take
+a small share in the building up of a nation. All that may be hoped for
+is that their certain end will be kept back as long as is humanly
+possible, and that their declining days will be softened by all
+kindness. A great reserve in the Northern Territory--a reserve from
+which the White population would be jealously excluded, and almost as
+jealously the White fashions of clothing and house-building--holds out
+the best hope for their future. It is comforting to think that the
+Australian Government is now resolved to do all in its power for the
+aboriginals. Indeed, to be just, authority has rarely lacked in
+kindness of intention; it has been the cruelty of individuals acting in
+defiance of authority, but aided by the supineness of authority, that
+has been responsible for most of the cruelty.
+
+The Maori or native New Zealander was of a different type. The Maori was
+an immigrant to New Zealand. Some time back there was an overflow of
+population from the fertile sub-tropical islands of Malaysia. A tribe
+which had already learned some of the arts of life, which was of a proud
+and warlike character, took to the sea, as the Norsemen did in Europe,
+and sought fresh lands for colonisation. Not one wave, but several, of
+this outflow of colonists struck New Zealand. The primitive people
+there, the Morioris, could offer but little resistance to the warlike
+Malaysians, and speedily were vanquished, a few remnants finding refuge
+in the outlying islets of the New Zealand group. Probably much the same
+type of emigrant occupied Hawaii at one time, for the Hawaiian and the
+Maori have much in common. But whilst the perpetual summer of Hawaii
+softened and enervated its colonists, the bracing and vigorous climate
+of New Zealand had a precisely opposite effect. The dark race of the
+Pacific reached there a very high state of development.
+
+The Maori system of government was tribal, and there does not seem to
+have been, up to the time of the coming of the White Man, any attempt on
+the part of one chief to seize supreme power and become king. Land was
+held on a communal system, and cultivated fairly well. Art existed, and
+was applied to boat-building, to architecture, to the embroidering of
+fabrics, to the carving of stone and wood. War was the great pastime,
+and cannibalism was customary. Probably this practice was brought by the
+Maoris from their old home. If it had not been, it might well have
+sprung up under the strange conditions of life in the new country, for
+New Zealand naturally possessed not a single mammal, not a beast whose
+flesh might be eaten. There were birds and lizards, and that was all.
+The Maoris brought with them dogs, which were bred for eating, but were
+too few in number to provide a satisfactory food-supply; and rats, which
+were also eaten. With these exceptions there was no flesh food, and the
+invitation to cannibalism was clear.
+
+A more pleasant feature of the national life of the Maori was a high
+degree of chivalry. In war and in love he seems to have had very much
+the same ideas of conduct as the European of the Age of Chivalry. He
+liked the combat for the combat's own sake, and it is recorded as one of
+the incidents of the Maori War that when a besieged British force ran
+short of ammunition, the Maori enemy halved with them their supply, "so
+as to have a fair fight."
+
+In his love affairs the Maori was romantic and poetic. His legends and
+his native poetry suggest a state of society in which there was a high
+respect for women, who had to be wooed and won, and were not the mere
+chattels of the men-warriors. Since this respect for womenkind is a
+great force for civilisation, there is but little doubt that, if the
+Maoris had been left undisturbed for a few more centuries, they would
+have evolved a state of civilisation comparable with that of the
+Japanese or the Mexicans.
+
+When Captain Cook visited New Zealand in 1769 the Maori race probably
+numbered some 100,000. The results of coming into contact with
+civilisation quickly reduced that number to about 50,000. But there was
+then a stay in the process of extinction. The Maori began to learn the
+virtues as well as the vices of civilisation. "Pakeha" medicine and
+sanitation were adopted, and the Maori birth-rate began to creep up, the
+Maori death-rate to decrease. It is not probable that the Maori race
+will ever come to such numbers as to be a factor of importance in the
+Pacific. But it will have some indirect influence. Having established
+the right to grow up side by side with the White colonists, possessing
+full political and social rights, the Maoris will probably modify
+somewhat the New Zealand national type. We shall see in New Zealand,
+within a reasonable time, a population of at least 10,000,000 of people,
+of whom perhaps 1,000,000 will be Maoris. The effect of this mixture of
+the British colonising type with a type somewhat akin to the Japanese
+will be interesting to watch. In all probability New Zealand will
+shelter a highly aggressive and a fiercely patriotic nation in the
+future (as indeed she does at present).
+
+The Malay States bred a vigorous and courageous race of seamen, and
+Malay blood has been dispersed over many parts of the Pacific, Malays
+probably providing the chief parent stock both for the Hawaiians and the
+Maoris. But the Malay Power has been broken up to such an extent that a
+Malay nation is now impossible. Since the British overlordship of the
+Malay Peninsula, the Chinese have been allowed free access to the land
+and free trading rights; and they have ousted the original inhabitants
+to a large extent.
+
+The Maori excepted, no race of Polynesia or Melanesia will survive to
+affect the destinies of the Pacific Ocean. Nature was cruelly kind to
+the Kanaka peoples in the past, and they must pay for their happiness
+now. In the South Pacific islands, until White civilisation intruded,
+the curse of Adam, which is that with the sweat of the brow bread must
+be won, had not fallen. Nature provided a Garden of Eden where rich food
+came without digging and raiment was not needed. Laughing nations of
+happy children grew up. True, wars they had, and war brought woe. But
+the great trouble, and also the great incentive to progress of life,
+they had not. There was no toiling for leave to live. Civilisation,
+alas! intrudes now, more urgent each year, to bring its "blessings" of
+toil, disease, and drabness of fettered life; and the Paradise of the
+South Sea yields to its advance--here with the sullen and passionate
+resentment of the angry child, there with the pathetic listlessness of
+the child too afraid to be angry. But, still, there survives in tree and
+flower, bird and beast, and in aboriginal man, much that has the
+suggestion rather of the Garden of Eden than of this curious world which
+man has made for himself--a world of exacting tasks and harsh
+taskmasters, of ugly houses and smoke-stained skies, of machinery and of
+enslaving conventions.
+
+With the White Man came sugar plantations and cotton fields. The Kanaka
+heard the words "work" and "wages." He laughed brightly, and went on
+chasing the butterfly happiness. To work a little while, for the fun of
+the thing, he was willing enough. Indeed, any new sort of task had a
+fascination for his childish nature. But steady toil he abhorred, and
+for wages he had no use.
+
+Some three years ago I watched for an hour or two, from the veranda of a
+house at Suva, a Fijian garden-boy at work. This was a "good"
+garden-boy, noted in the town for his industry. And he played with his
+work with an elegant naïveté that was altogether charming to one who had
+not to be his paymaster. Almost bare of clothing, his fine bronzed
+muscles rippled and glanced to show that he had the strength for any
+task if he had but the will. Perhaps the gentleness of his energy was
+inspired by the æsthetic idea of just keeping his bronze skin a little
+moist, so as to bring out to the full its satin grace without blurring
+the fine anatomical lines with drops of visible sweat. His languid grace
+deserved that it should have had some such prompting. If a bird
+alighted on a tree, the Fijian quickly dropped his hoe and pursued it
+with stones, which--his bright smile said--were not maliciously meant,
+but had a purpose of greeting. An insect, a passing wayfarer, the fall
+of a leaf, a cloud in the sky, all provided equally good reasons for
+stopping work. Finally, at three a little shower came, and the "model
+boy" of Fijian industry thankfully ceased work for the day.
+
+A gracious, sweet, well-fed idleness was Nature's dower to the Pacific
+Islander, until the White Man came with his work, as an angel with a
+flaming sword, and Paradise ended. Now the fruit of that idleness is
+that the Kanaka can take no part in the bustling life of modern
+civilisation.
+
+In one British settlement, Papua, a part of New Guinea, the Australian
+Government is endeavouring to lead a Kanaka race along the path of
+modern progress. "Papua for the Papuans," is the keynote of the
+administration, and all kinds of devices are adopted to tempt the
+coloured man to industry. His Excellency, Colonel Murray, the
+Administrator of Papua, told me in London (where he was on leave) last
+year (1911) that he had some hopes that the cupidity of the Papuans
+would in time tempt them to some settled industry. They had a great
+liking for the White Man's adornments and tools, and, to gratify that
+liking, were showing some inclination for work. The effort is well
+meant, but probably vain. "Civilisation is impossible where the banana
+grows," declared an American philosopher: and the generalisation was
+sound. The banana tree provides food without tillage: and an organic law
+of this civilisation of ours is that man must be driven, by hunger and
+thirst and the desire for shelter, to plan, to organise, to make
+machines, to store.
+
+Every nation in the Pacific has the same experience. In the Hawaiian
+Group, the American Power finds the native race helpless material for
+nation-making. The Hawaiian takes on a veneer of civilisation, but
+nothing can shake him from his habits of indolence. He adopts American
+clothes, lives in American houses, learns to eat pie and to enjoy
+ice-cream soda. He plays at the game of politics with voluble zeal. But
+he is still a Kanaka, and takes no real part in the progress of the
+flourishing territory of Hawaii. Americans do the work of
+administration. Imported Japanese, Chinese, Portuguese and others, are
+the coolies and the traders. The Hawaiian talks, basks in the sun,
+adorns himself with wreaths of odorous flowers, and occasionally
+declaims with the pathetic bleat of an enraged sheep at "American
+tyranny."
+
+When White civilisation came to the South Pacific, the various islands
+held several millions of coloured peoples, very many of them enjoying an
+idyllically happy system of existence. To-day, 50,000 Maoris, beginning
+to hold their own in the islands of New Zealand, represent the sole hope
+of all those peoples to have any voice at all in the Pacific.
+Humanitarian effort may secure the survival for a time of other groups
+of islanders, but the ultimate prospects are not bright. Probably what
+is happening at Fiji, where the Fijian fades away in the face of a more
+strenuous coolie type imported from India, and at Hawaii, will happen
+everywhere in the South Pacific.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER X
+
+LATIN AMERICA
+
+
+Latin America is the world's great example of race-mixture. Europeans
+and Indians have intermixed from Terra del Fuego to the northern
+boundary of Mexico, and the resultant race, with some differences due to
+climate, has general points of resemblance over all that vast territory.
+There is prompting to speculation as to the reasons why in Spanish and
+Portuguese America race mixture was the rule, in Anglo-Saxon America the
+exception. It was not the superior kindness of the Latin people which
+paved the way to confidence and inter-marriage. No one can doubt that,
+badly stained as are the records of the Anglo-Saxons in America, the
+records of the Latins are far, far worse. Yet the Latin, between
+intervals of massacre, prepared the nuptial couch, and a Latin-Indian
+race survives to-day whilst there is no Teutonic-Indian race.
+
+Probably it is a superior sense of racial responsibility and racial
+superiority which has kept the Anglo-Saxon colonist from mingling his
+blood with that of the races he made subject to him. He shows a
+reproduction in a modern people of the old Hebraic spirit of elect
+nationality. In truth; there may be advanced some excuse for those
+fantastic theorists who write large volumes to prove that ten tribes
+were once lost from Israel and might have been found soon after in
+Britain. If there were no other circumstances on which to found the
+theory (which, I believe, has not the slightest historical basis), the
+translation of the Old Testament into the English language would amply
+serve. It is the one great successful translation of the world's
+literary history: it makes any other version of the Bible in a European
+language--including that pseudo-English one done at Douai--seem pallid
+and feeble; it rescues the Hebrew sentiment and the Hebrew poetry from
+out the morass of the dull Greek translation. And it does all this
+seemingly because the Elizabethan Englishman resembled in temperament,
+in outlook, in thought, the Chosen People of the time of David.
+
+The Elizabethan Anglo-Saxon wandering out on the Empire trail treated
+with cruelty and contempt the Gentile races which he encountered. He has
+since learned to treat them with kindness and contempt. But he has never
+sunk the contempt, and the contempt saves him from any general practice
+of miscegenation. In ruling the blind heathen, more fussy peoples fail
+because they wish to set the heathen right: to induce the barbarian to
+become as they are. The Anglo-Saxon does not particularly wish to set
+the heathen right. He is right: that suffices. It is not possible for
+inferior races ever to be like him. It is wise, therefore, to let them
+wallow. So long as they give to him the proper reverence, he is
+satisfied. Thus the superb, imperturbable Anglo-Saxon holds aloof from
+inferior races: governs them coolly, on the whole justly; but never
+attempts to share their life. His plan is to enforce strictly from a
+subject people the one thing that he wants of them, and to leave the
+rest of their lives without interference. They may fill the interval
+with hoodoo rites, caste divisions or Mumbo-Jumbo worship, as they
+please. So long as such diversions have no seditious tendencies they are
+viewed, if not with approval, at least with tolerance. Indeed, if that
+be suitable to his purpose, the Anglo-Saxon governor of the heathen will
+subsidise the Dark Races' High Priest of Mumbo-Jumbo. Thus a favourite
+British remedy for the sorcerer, who is the great evil of the South Sea
+Islands, is not a crusade against sorcery, which would be very
+troublesome and rather useless, but to purchase over the chief
+sorcerers--who come very cheap when translated into English
+currency--and make them do their incantations on behalf of orderly
+government (insisting, by the way, on more faithful service than Balaam
+gave).
+
+It is his race arrogance, equally with his robust common-sense, that
+makes the Anglo-Saxon the ideal coloniser and governor of Coloured
+Races: and there is no room for miscegenation in an ideal system.
+America, considered in its two sections, Latin America and Anglo-Saxon
+America, gives a good opportunity for comparison of colonising methods.
+To-day North of the 30th parallel the Republic of the United States
+shows as the greatest White nation of the world, greatest in population
+and material prosperity; and the young nation of Canada enters buoyantly
+upon the path of a big career. South of that parallel there are great
+populations, but they are poor in resources, and as a rule poorly
+governed, poorly educated. Some of the Latin-American races show
+promise--Chili and the Argentine Republic most of all,--yet none is
+comparable or ever likely to be comparable with the Republic of North
+America.
+
+Yet before Columbus sailed from Europe the position was exactly
+reversed. North of the 30th parallel of northern latitude there was but
+a vagabond beginning of civilisation. South of that parallel two fine
+nations had built up polities comparable in many respects with those of
+the European peoples of to-day. What Peru and Mexico would have become
+under conditions of Anglo-Saxon conquest, it is, of course, impossible
+to say. But there is an obvious conclusion to be drawn from the fact
+that the Anglo-Saxon colonists found a wilderness and built up two great
+nations: the Latin colonists found two highly organised civilisations,
+and left a wilderness from which there now emerges a hope, faint and not
+yet certain, of a Latin-American Power.
+
+The story of Peru is one of the great tragedies of history. The Peruvian
+Empire at the time of the Spanish invasion stretched along the Pacific
+Ocean over the territory which now comprises Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia, and
+Chili. Natural conditions along that coastal belt had been favourable to
+the growth of civilisation. A strip of land about twenty leagues wide
+runs along the coast, hemmed in by the Andes on one side, by the sea on
+the other. This strip of coast land is fed by a few scanty streams.
+Above, the steppes of the Sierra, of granite and porphyry, have their
+heights wrapped in eternal snows. Here was the call for work, which is
+the main essential of civilisation. The Peruvians constructed a system
+of canals and subterranean aqueducts, wrought with extraordinary skill
+by instruments and tools made of stone and copper (though iron was
+plentiful its use had not been learned). Thus they cultivated the waste
+places. In some respects their life conditions were similar to those of
+the Egyptians. Their agriculture was highly advanced and comprehensive.
+Their religion was sun-worship, and on it was based a highly organised
+theocracy. Tradition said that a son and daughter of the Sun, who were
+also man and wife, were sent by their father to teach the secrets of
+life to the Peruvians. These divinities were the first Incas.
+
+The civil and military systems of the Peruvians were admirable in
+theory, though doomed to break down utterly under the savage test of the
+Spanish invasion. The Empire was divided into four parts; into each ran
+one of the great roads which diverged from Cuzco ("the navel"), the
+capital. The provinces were ruled by viceroys, assisted by councils; all
+magistrates and governors were selected from the nobility. By law, the
+Peruvian was forced to marry at a certain age. Sufficient land was
+allotted him to maintain himself and his wife, and an additional grant
+was made for each child. There was a yearly adjustment and renewal of
+land grants. Conditions of theocratic and despotic socialism marked most
+departments of civil life. In what may be called "foreign politics" the
+Incas pursued conquest by a Florentine policy of negotiation and
+intrigue. In dealing with neighbouring foes they acted so that when they
+at last came into the Peruvian Empire, they should have uncrippled
+resources and amicable sentiments. The Spaniards have described the
+Peruvians as "lazy, luxurious and sensual." It would have been equally
+correct to have said that they were contented, refined and amiable.
+Their very virtues made it impossible for them to defend themselves
+against the Spaniards.
+
+The Spanish adventurers who were destined to destroy the elegant and
+happy civilisation of the Peruvians--a civilisation which had solved the
+problem of poverty, and gave to every citizen a comfortable
+existence--were children of Spain at her highest pitch of power and
+pride. Gold and his God were the two objects of worship of the Spaniard
+of that day, and his greed did no more to sully his wild courage with
+cruelty than his religion, which had been given a fierce and gloomy bent
+towards persecution by the struggles with the Moors.
+
+In 1511 Vasco Nunez da Balboa was told in Mexico of a fabulously rich
+land where "gold was as cheap as iron." Balboa in the search for it
+achieved the fine feat of crossing from Central America the mountain
+rampart of the isthmus. Reaching the Pacific, he rushed into its waters
+crying, "I claim this unknown sea with all it contains for the King of
+Castile, and I will make good this claim against all who dare to gainsay
+it." There Balboa got clearer news of Peru, and pushed on to within
+about twenty leagues of the Gulf of St Michael. But the achievement of
+Peru was reserved for another man. In 1524 Francisco Pizarro set out
+upon the conquest of Peru. Pizarro had all the motives for wild
+adventure. An illegitimate child--his father a colonel of infantry, his
+mother of humble condition,--he had reached middle age without winning a
+fortune, yet without abating his ambition. He was ready for any
+desperate enterprise. After two unsuccessful attempts to reach Peru, the
+Spanish freebooter finally succeeded, leading a tiny force across the
+Andes to Caxamalco, where he encountered the Inca, who received the
+strangers peaceably. But no kindness could stave off the lust for gold
+and slaughter of the Spaniards. Because the Inca refused at a moment's
+notice to accept the Christian God, as explained to him by a Spanish
+friar, a holy war was declared against the Peruvians. The wretched
+people understood as little the treachery and the resolute cruelty of
+the Spaniards as their gunpowder and their horses. Paralysed by their
+virtues, they fell easy victims, as sheep to wolves.
+
+A career of rapine and bloodshed led to the complete occupation of the
+country by the Spaniards, and the vassalage of the natives. Civil war
+amongst the conquerors, into which the natives were willy-nilly dragged,
+aggravated the horrors of this murder of a nation. The Spaniards looted
+and tortured the men, violated the women, and were so merciless as to
+carry on their war even against the natural resources of the country.
+They used to kill the llama or native sheep for the sake of its brains,
+which were considered a delicacy. Yet Pizarro, in his instructions from
+Spain, which secured to him the right of conquest and discovery in Peru,
+and various titles and privileges, was expressly enjoined "to observe
+all regulations for the good government and protection of the natives."
+
+The fact that the Spaniards condescended to racial mixture with the
+Indians did nothing to heal the scars of such suffering. The half-breeds
+grew up with a hatred of Spain, and they had borrowed from their fathers
+some of their savagery. The mild Peruvian would have bred victims for
+generation after generation. The Spanish-Peruvian cross bred avengers.
+Early in the nineteenth century Spain was driven out of South America
+and a series of Latin-American Republics instituted.
+
+In 1815 the Napoleonic wars having ended with the caging of the great
+soldier, Spain proposed to the Holy Alliance of European monarchs a
+joint European effort to restore her dominion over the revolted colonies
+in South America. But Napoleon had done his work too well to allow of
+any alliance, however "holy," to reassert the divine right of kings.
+Whilst he had been overthrowing the thrones of Europe, both in North and
+South America free nations had won recognition with the blood of their
+people. The United States, still nationally an infant, but sturdy
+withal, promulgated the Monroe doctrine as a veto on any European war of
+revenge against the South American Republics. Great Britain was more
+sympathetic to America than to the Holy Alliance. The momentarily
+re-established Kings and Emperors of Europe had therefore to hold their
+hand. It was a significant year, creating at once a free Latin America
+and a tradition that Latin America should look to Anglo-Saxon America
+for protection.
+
+Passing north of the Isthmus of Panama, there come up for consideration
+another group of Latin-American States of which the racial history
+resembles closely that of South America. The little cluster of Central
+American States can hardly be taken seriously. Their ultimate fate will
+probably be that of Cuba--nominal independence under the close
+surveillance of the United States. But, farther north, Mexico claims
+more serious attention. Some time before Peru had received the blessings
+of civilisation from Pizarro, Mexico had reluctantly yielded her
+independence to Cortez, a Spanish leader whose task was much more severe
+than that of Pizarro. Whilst the mild Peruvians gave up without a
+struggle, the fierce Mexicans contested the issue with stubbornness and
+with a courage which was enterprising enough to allow them to seize the
+firearms of dead Spanish soldiers and use them against the invaders.
+
+The original Aztec civilisation was warlike and Spartan. Extreme
+severity marked the penal codes. Intemperance, the consuming canker of
+Indian races, was severely penalised. There were several classes of
+slaves, the most unhappy being prisoners of war, who were often used as
+sacrificial victims to the gods. Sacrificed human beings were eaten at
+banquets attended by both sexes. The Aztecs were constantly at war with
+their neighbours, and needed no better pretext for a campaign than the
+need to capture sacrifices for their gods.
+
+Grijalba was the first Spaniard to set foot on Mexico. He held a
+conference with an Aztec chief, and interchanged toys and trinkets for a
+rich treasure of jewels and gold. Cortez, the conqueror of Mexico, was
+sent to Mexico by Velasquez, conqueror of Cuba. He landed in Mexico with
+the avowed object of Christianising the natives, and considered himself
+a Soldier of the Cross. Like a good Crusader, he was ready to argue
+with the sword when words failed to convince. For some while he engaged
+in amicable relations with the Mexicans, exchanging worthless trifles
+for Mexican gold. But eventually various small wars led up to a three
+months' siege of the Aztec capital, which fell after a display of grand
+courage on the part of the Mexicans. Their civilisation, when at a point
+of high development, was then blotted out for ever.
+
+It was in 1521 that the Spaniards first landed in Mexico. Their rule
+extended over three centuries. In 1813 Mexico first declared her
+independence, and in 1821 achieved the separation from Spain. The war of
+liberation had been fierce and sanguinary. It was succeeded by civil
+wars which threatened to tear to pieces the new nation. In 1822 an
+Empire was attempted. It ended with the assassination of the Emperor,
+Augustin de Yturbidi. A series of military dictatorships followed, until
+in 1857 a Republican constitution was promulgated. Because this
+constitution was strongly anti-clerical, it led to another series of
+wars.
+
+Meanwhile greedy eyes were fixed upon the rich territories thus ravaged
+by civil strife. The United States to the north coveted the coastal
+provinces of California. Napoleon III. of France conceived the idea of
+reviving French influence on the American continent, and in 1864 helped
+to set up the second Empire of Mexico with the unhappy Maximilian at its
+head. Maximilian left Europe in the spring of 1864. After three years
+of civil war he was shot by the revolutionary commander. His rule had
+not commended itself to the Mexicans and was viewed with suspicion by
+the United States, which saw in it an attempt to revive European
+continental influences.
+
+Then anarchy reigned for many years, until in 1876 the strong hands of
+Diaz, one of the great men of the century, took control. He did for the
+Mexican revolutionaries what Napoleon had done for the French
+Terrorists. But it was different material that he had to work upon. The
+Mexicans, their Aztec blood not much improved by an admixture of
+European, gave reluctant obedience to Diaz, and he was never able to
+lead them towards either a peaceful and stable democracy or a really
+progressive despotism. For more than a quarter of a century, however, he
+held power, nominally as the elected head of a Republic, really as the
+despotic centre of a tiny oligarchy. The country he ruled over, however,
+was not the old Spanish Mexico. There had been a steady process of
+absorption of territory by her powerful northern neighbour. Over
+1,000,000 square miles, included in the rich Californian and Texas
+districts, had passed over by right of conquest or forced sale to the
+United States. The present area of Mexico is 767,000 square miles. So
+more than half of this portion of Spanish America has passed over to the
+Stars and Stripes.
+
+The fall of Diaz in 1911 seemed to presage the acquirement by the
+United States of the rest of Mexico. There had been for some months
+rumours of an alliance between Mexico and Japan, which would have had an
+obviously unfriendly purpose towards the United States. The rumours were
+steadily denied. But many believed that they had some foundation, and
+that the mobilisation of United States troops on the Mexican frontier
+was not solely due to the desire to keep the frontier line secure from
+invasions by the Mexican revolutionaries. Whatever the real position,
+the tension relaxed when the abdication of Diaz allayed for a while the
+revolutionary disorders in Mexico. Now (1912) disorder again riots
+through Mexico, and again the authorities of the United States are
+anxiously considering whether intervention is not necessary.[5]
+
+I am strongly of the opinion that by the time the Panama Canal has been
+opened for world shipping, the United States will have found some form
+of supervision over all Latin North America necessary: and that her
+diplomacy is now shaping also for the inclusion of Latin South America
+in an American Imperial system by adding to the present measure of
+diplomatic suzerainty which the Monroe doctrine represents a
+preferential tariff system. Before discussing that point, the actual
+strength of Latin America should be summarised. To-day the chief nations
+of Latin America--all of Spanish-Indian or of Portuguese-Indian
+origin--are:--
+
+The Republic of Argentina, area 3,954,911 square miles; population,
+6,489,000 (increasing largely by immigration from all parts of Europe);
+revenue, about £20,000,000 a year.
+
+The Republic of Bolivia, area 605,400 square miles; population
+2,049,000; revenue, about £1,300,000 a year.
+
+The Republic of Brazil, area 3,218,991 square miles; population
+21,461,000 (there is a great European immigration); revenue, about
+£18,000,000 a year.
+
+The Republic of Chili, area 2474 square miles; population about
+4,500,000; revenue about £1,400,000 a year.
+
+The Republic of Ecuador, area 116,000 square miles; population about
+1,400,000; revenue about £1,400,000.
+
+The Republic of Uruguay, area 72,210 square miles; population 1,042,668;
+revenue about £5,000,000.
+
+The Republic of Venezuela, area 393,870 square miles; revenue about
+£2,000,000.
+
+The Republic of Paraguay, area 98,000 square miles; population about
+650,000.
+
+The Republic of Mexico, area 767,000 square miles; population about
+14,000,000.
+
+The total of populations is between 50,000,000 and 60,000,000.
+
+These peoples have the possibility--but as yet only the possibility--of
+organising appreciable naval power, and are possessed now of a military
+power, not altogether contemptible, and equal to the task at most points
+of holding the land against a European or Asiatic invader, if that
+invader had to face the United States' naval power also. Presuming their
+peaceable acceptance of a plan to embrace them in the ambit of an
+American Imperial system--a system which would still leave them with
+their local liberties,--there is no doubt at all that they could add
+enormously to the strength of the United States. Presuming, on the other
+hand, a determined plan on their part to form among themselves a grand
+Federal League, and to aim at a Latin-American Empire, they might make
+some counterbalance to the power of the United States on the American
+continent and in the Pacific.
+
+Neither contingency seems immediately likely. These Latin-American
+peoples have not yet shown any genius for self-government. They produce
+revolutionary heroes, but not statesmen. Among themselves they quarrel
+bitterly, and a Latin-American Confederation does not seem to be
+possible. On the other hand, Latin America is jealous of the United
+States: resents, whilst it accepts the benefits of, the Monroe doctrine,
+and would take as a danger signal any action hostile to the Mexican
+Republic which the Anglo-Celtic Republic should be forced to take. Any
+attempt on the part of the United States to "force the pace" in regard
+to Latin America would saddle her with half a dozen annoying wars.
+
+What seems to be the aim of United States diplomacy, and what seems to
+be an attainable aim, is that very gradually the countries of South
+America will be brought closer to the northern Republic, coaxed by a
+system of reciprocity in trade which would offer them advantageous
+terms. Commercial union would thus pave the way to a closer political
+union. Such a development would be a very serious detriment to British
+trade interests, and to the British position in the Pacific. British
+export trade with Latin America is very considerable, amounting to some
+£60,000,000 worth a year. The two greatest contributors to the total are
+Brazil (£16,426,000 in 1910) and the Argentine Republic (£19,097,000 in
+1910). Their communications with Great Britain will be left unchanged
+with the opening of the Panama Canal: and that event consequently will
+not strengthen American influence there. The same remark applies to
+trade with Mexico (£2,399,000 in 1910), with Columbia (£1,196,000), with
+Uruguay (£2,940,000). But trade with Peru (£1,315,000) and Chili
+(£5,479,000) will be affected by the canal bringing New York competition
+nearer.
+
+There would, however, be a very serious position created for British
+trading interests if a proposal were carried out of an American
+preferential tariff system embracing the United States and Latin
+America. The total of British trade with Latin America (about
+£60,000,000) is nearly one-third of the total of British foreign trade
+(£183,986,000 in 1910), and is more than half the total British trade
+with British possessions. Moreover, it is almost exclusively in lines in
+which United States competition is already keenly felt. A tariff
+preference of any extent to the United States would drive British goods,
+to a large degree, out of the Latin-American market.
+
+The position of Latin America in its effect on the dominance of the
+Pacific may be summed up as this: racial instability will probably
+prevent the Latin-American nations from federating and forming a great
+Power; the veto of the United States will prevent them from falling into
+the sphere of influence of any European Power; their jealousy and
+distrust of the United States, whether it be without or with reason,
+will stand in the way of their speedy absorption in an American Imperial
+system. But that absorption seems ultimately inevitable (though its form
+will leave their local independence intact). Its first step has been
+taken with the Monroe declaration; its second step is now being prepared
+with proposals for trade reciprocity.
+
+FOOTNOTES:
+
+[5] A dispatch from Washington, February 7, 1912, stated:
+
+President Taft and Secretary Knox held a long conference this morning on
+the state of affairs in Mexico, which, it is believed, are worse than is
+officially admitted. Reluctant as the President is to take any steps
+that might compel intervention or the military occupation of Mexico, he
+is forced to view both as ultimate possibilities, and to make
+preparations accordingly. Thus the Army on the border is being
+strengthened, although thus far no important military movements have
+taken place, but the plans are complete for mobilisation.
+
+While Congress is opposed to involving the country in war, or to any
+action which will lead to hostilities with Mexico, it will support the
+President if war is the only alternative, and the large amount of
+British and other foreign capital invested in Mexico makes it incumbent
+upon the United States, in view of the Monroe doctrine, to protect the
+lives and property of foreigners in the Republic. Otherwise, the duty of
+protection must be undertaken by the Governments whose nationals are in
+jeopardy, which would be an admission on the part of the United States
+that the Monroe doctrine exists for the benefit of the United States,
+but imposes no obligations. That is an admission Congress will not make
+so long as there is an Army ready to take the field.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XI
+
+CANADA AND THE PACIFIC
+
+
+The existence, side by side, of two races and two languages in Canada
+makes it a matter of some doubt as to what the future Canadian nation
+will be. The French race, so far proving more stubborn in its
+characteristics than the British race in Canada, has been the
+predominant influence up to recently, though its influence has sought
+the impossible aim of a French-Canadian nation rather than a Canadian
+nation. Thus it was at once a bulwark of national spirit and yet an
+obstacle to a genuinely progressive nationalism. Patriotic in its
+resistance to all external influences which threatened Canadian
+independence, it yet failed in its duty to promote an internal progress
+towards a homogeneous people.
+
+Canada, it is perhaps needless to recall to mind, was originally a
+French colony. In the sixteenth century, when the British settlements in
+America were scattered along the Atlantic seaboard of what is now the
+United States, the French colonised in the valley of the Mississippi and
+along the course of the great river known as the St Lawrence. Their
+design of founding an Empire in America, a "New France," took the bold
+form of isolating the seaboard colonies of the British, and effectively
+occupying all of what is now the Middle-West of the United States,
+together with Canada and the country bordering on the Gulf of Mexico. It
+is not possible to imagine greater courage, more patient endurance, more
+strenuous enterprise, than was shown by the early founders of New
+France. If they did not achieve, they at least fully deserved an Empire.
+
+French colonists in Canada occupied at first the province of Acadia, now
+known as Nova Scotia, and the province of Quebec on the River St
+Lawrence. Jacques Cartier, a sailor of St Malo, was the first explorer
+of the St Lawrence. Acadia was colonised in 1604 by an expedition from
+the Huguenot town of La Rochelle, under the command of Champlain, De
+Monts, and Poutrincourt. Then a tardy English rivalry was aroused. In
+1614 the Governor of Virginia, Sir Thomas Dale, sent an expedition to
+Acadia, and took possession of the French fort. That was the first blow
+in a long struggle between English and French for supremacy in North
+America. In 1629, the date of Richelieu's supremacy in France, an
+incident of a somewhat irregular war between England and France was the
+capture, by David Kirk, an English Admiral, of Quebec, the newly-founded
+capital of "New France"; and the English Flag floated over Fort St
+Louis. But it was discovered that this capture had been effected after
+peace had been declared between the two European Powers, and, by the
+treaty of St Germain-en-Laye, Quebec was restored to France.
+
+But the French colonies in America were still inconsiderable and were
+always threatened by the Red Indians, until Colbert, the great Minister
+of Louis XIV., made them a royal province, and, with Jean Baptiste Talon
+as Governor, Monseigneur Laval as Bishop, and the Marquis de Tracy as
+soldier, French Canada was organised under a system of theocratic
+despotism. The new régime was strictly paternal. The colonists were
+allowed no self-governing rights; a feudal system was set up, and the
+land divided into seignories, whose vassals were known as "habitants," a
+name which still survives. In all things the Governor and the Bishop
+exercised a sway. Wives were brought from France for the habitants,
+early marriages and large families encouraged, and religious orthodoxy
+carefully safeguarded.
+
+The French Canada of to-day shows the enduring nature of the lessons
+which Talon and Laval then inculcated. With the growth of modern thought
+the feudal system has passed away, and the habitants are independent
+farmers instead of vassals to a seigneur. But in most other things they
+are the same as their forefathers of the seventeenth century. When
+Canada passed into the hands of the English, it had to be recognised
+that there was no hope of holding the country on any terms antagonistic
+to the habitants and their firmly fixed principles of life. In regard
+to religion, to education, to marriage and many other things, the old
+Roman Catholic ecclesiastical influence was preserved, and continues
+almost undiminished to this day.
+
+The French-Canadian is a Frenchman of the era before the Revolution--a
+Frenchman without scepticism, and with a belief in large families. He is
+the Breton peasant of a century ago, who has come to a new land,
+increased and multiplied. He is devoutly attached to the Roman Catholic
+Church, and follows its guidance in all things.
+
+A somewhat frigid and calculating "loyalty" to Great Britain; a deep
+sentimental attachment to France as "the Mother Country"; a rooted
+dislike to the United States, founded on the conviction that if Canada
+joined the great Republic he would lose his language and religious
+privileges--these are the elements which go to the making of the
+French-Canadian's national character.
+
+Very jealously the French-Canadian priesthood preserves the ideas of the
+ancient order. Marriage of French-Canadians with Protestants, or even
+with Roman Catholics of other than French-Canadian blood, is
+discouraged. The education of the children--the numerous children of
+this race which counts a family not of respectable size until it has
+reached a dozen--is kept in the hands of the Church in schools where the
+French tongue alone is taught. Thus the French-Canadian influence,
+instead of permeating through the whole nation, aims at a people within
+a people. The aim cannot be realised; and already the theocratic idea,
+on which French-Canadian nationalism is largely based, shows signs of
+weakening. There are to be found French-Canadians who are confessedly
+"anti-clerical." That marks the beginning of the end. One may foresee in
+the near future the French-Canadian element merging in the general mass
+of the community to the great benefit of all--of the French-Canadian,
+who needs to be somewhat modernised; of the British-Canadian, who will
+be all the better for a mingling of a measure of the exalted idealism
+and spiritual strength of the French element; and of the nation at
+large, for a complete merging of the two races, French and British, in
+Canada would produce a people from which might be expected any degree of
+greatness.
+
+Canada, facing to-day both the Atlantic and the Pacific, has the
+possibilities of greatness on either ocean, or indeed on both; I do not
+think it a wild forecast to say that ultimately her Pacific provinces
+may be greater than those bordering the Atlantic, and may draw to their
+port a large share of the trade of the Middle-West. Entering Canada by
+her Pacific gate, and passing through the coastal region over the
+Selkirks and Rockies to the prairie, one sees all the material for the
+making of a mighty nation. The coastal waters, and the rivers flowing
+into them, teem with fish, and here are the possibilities of a huge
+fishing population. At present those possibilities are, in the main,
+neglected, or allowed to be exploited by Asiatics. But a movement is
+already afoot to organise their control for the benefit of a British
+population. The coastal strip and the valleys running into the ranges
+are mild of climate and rich of soil. An agricultural population of
+10,000,000 could here find sustenance, first levying toll on the great
+forests, and later growing grain and fruit. Within the ranges are great
+stores of minerals, from gold down to coal and iron. Everywhere are
+rushing rivers and rapids to provide electrical power. Fishermen,
+lumbermen, farmers, mountain graziers, miners, manufacturers--for all
+these there is golden opportunity. The rigours of the Eastern Canadian
+climate are missing: but there is no enervating heat. The somewhat
+old-fashioned traditions of the Eastern provinces are also missing, and
+the people facing the Pacific have the lusty confidence of youth.
+
+At present the balance of political power in Canada is with the east.
+But each year sees it move farther west. The Pacific provinces count for
+more and more, partly from their increasing population, partly from
+their increasing influence over the prairie farmers and ranchers. The
+last General Election in Canada showed clearly this tendency. In every
+part of the nation there was a revulsion from the political ideals
+represented by Sir Wilfrid Laurier: and that revulsion was most complete
+in the west, where as a movement it had had its birth.
+
+It would be outside of the scope of this book to discuss the domestic
+politics of Canada, but the Canadian General Election of 1911 was so
+significant in its bearing on the future of the Pacific, that some
+reference to its issues and decisions is necessary. Sir Wilfrid Laurier
+up to 1911 had held the balance even between the British and the French
+elements in Canada without working for their amalgamation. His aim
+always was to pursue a programme of peaceful material development. With
+the ideals of British Imperialism he had but little real sympathy, and
+his conception of the duty of the Canadian nation was that it should
+grow prosperous quickly, push forward with its railways, and avoid
+entangling participation in matters outside the boundaries of Canada. He
+was not blind to the existence of the United States Monroe doctrine as a
+safeguard to Canadian territory against European invasion, and was not
+disposed to waste money on armaments which, to his mind, were
+unnecessary. The Canadian militia, which from the character of the
+people might have been the finest in the world, was allowed to become a
+mostly ornamental institution.[6]
+
+At the Imperial Defence Conference in 1909, Sir Wilfrid refused to
+follow the lead of other self-governing Dominions in organising Fleet
+units, and the Canadian attitude was recorded officially as this:
+
+"As regards Canada, it was recognised that while on naval strategical
+considerations a Fleet unit on the Pacific might in the future form an
+acceptable system of naval defence, Canada's double seaboard rendered
+the provision of such a Fleet unit unsuitable for the present. Two
+alternative plans, based upon annual expenditures respectively of
+£600,000 and £400,000, were considered, the former contemplating the
+provision of four cruisers of the 'Bristol' class, one cruiser of the
+'Boadicea' class, and six destroyers of the improved 'River' class, the
+'Boadicea' and destroyers to be placed on the Atlantic side and the
+'Bristol' cruisers to be divided between the Atlantic and Pacific
+oceans." Yet it had been expected that Canada would at least have
+followed the Australian offer of a Pacific Fleet unit at a cost of
+£3,000,000 a year.
+
+Sir Wilfrid Laurier's fall came when, in the natural development of his
+ideals of a peaceful and prosperous Canada, sharing none of the
+responsibilities of the British Empire, but reckoning for her safety
+partly on its power, partly on the power of the United States, he
+proposed to enter into a Trade Reciprocity Treaty with the United
+States. The proposal was fiercely attacked, not only on the ground that
+it represented a partial surrender of Canadian nationalist ideals, but
+also on the charge that it was against the interests of British
+Imperialism. At the General Election which followed, Sir Wilfrid Laurier
+was decisively defeated. As an indication of the issues affecting the
+result, there is the anecdote that one of Sir Wilfrid Laurier's
+supporters ascribed the defeat chiefly to "the chap who wrote 'Rule
+Britannia.'"
+
+Canada to-day faces the future with a purpose made clear, of cherishing
+her separate nationalism and her partnership in the British Empire. She
+will cultivate friendship with the United States, but she will not
+tolerate anything leading to absorption with the great Republic: and she
+will take a more active part in the defence of the Empire. The Laurier
+naval policy, which was to spend a little money uselessly, has been set
+aside, and Canada's share in the naval defence of the Empire is to be
+discussed afresh with the British Admiralty. A military reorganisation,
+of which the full details are not available yet, is also projected. It
+is known that the Defence Minister, Colonel Hughes, intends to
+strengthen the rural regiments, to establish local in addition to
+central armouries, and to stimulate recruiting by increasing the pay of
+the volunteers. He also contemplates a vigorous movement for the
+organisation of cadet corps throughout the whole country. It is a
+reasonable forecast that Canada, in the near future, will contribute to
+the defence of the Pacific a Fleet unit based on a "Dreadnought" cruiser
+and a militia force capable of holding her western coast against any but
+a most powerful invader. Her ultimate power in the Pacific can hardly be
+over-estimated. The wheat lands of the Middle-West and the cattle lands
+of the West will probably find an outlet west as well as east, when the
+growing industrial populations of Asia begin to come as customers into
+the world's food markets. Electric power developed in the great mountain
+ranges will make her also a great manufacturing nation: and she will
+suffer less in the future than in the past from the draining away of the
+most ambitious of her young men to the United States. The tide of
+migration has turned, and it is Canada now which draws away young blood
+from the Southern Republic.
+
+FOOTNOTES:
+
+[6] It can be at least said on behalf of the Canadian militia that their
+condition was no worse than that of the militia of the United States. In
+1906 Mr President Taft (then Secretary for War) contributed a preface to
+a pamphlet by Mr Huidekoper on the United States Army. Mr Taft then
+wrote:--
+
+"Our confidence in ourselves and in our power of quickly adapting
+circumstances to meet any national emergency so far has carried away
+some of our public men so that they have been deliberately blind to the
+commonest and most generally accepted military principles, and they have
+been misled by the general success or good luck which has attended us in
+most of our wars. The awful sacrifice of life and money which we had to
+undergo during the four years in order to train our civil war veterans
+and to produce that army is entirely forgotten, and the country is
+lulled into the utterly unfounded assurance that a volunteer enlisted
+to-day, or a militiaman enrolled to-morrow, can in a week or month be
+made an effective soldier. The people of this country and the Government
+of this country, down to the time of the Spanish War, had pursued a
+policy which seemed utterly to ignore the lessons of the past."
+
+Mr Huidekoper (an acknowledged expert) maintained:--
+
+"Judged by purely military standards, the invasion of Cuba was a trivial
+affair; but never in modern times has there been an expedition which
+contained so many elements of weakness; that it succeeded at all is,
+indeed, a marvel. The disorders of demoralisation and incapacity which
+attended the opening operations were nothing but the logical outcome of
+the unwillingness of Congress to prepare for war until the last possible
+moment, and merely demonstrated once again the utterly vicious system to
+which our legislators have persistently bound us, by neglecting to
+provide a force of thoroughly trained soldiers either large enough or
+elastic enough to meet the requirements of war as well as peace,
+supported by a militia which has previously had sufficient training to
+make it, when called out as volunteers, fairly dependable against the
+regular forces of other nations."
+
+Then in 1911, Mr Dickinson, U.S. Secretary for War, in an official
+report, condemned absolutely the U.S. militia on the grounds that: "It
+is lacking in proper proportions of cavalry, field artillery, engineer,
+signal corps and sanitary troops; it is not fully or properly organised
+into the higher units, brigades and divisions; it has no reserve
+supplies of arms and field equipment to raise its units from a peace to
+a war footing; it is so widely scattered throughout the country as to
+make its prompt concentration impossible; its personnel is deficient in
+training; it is to a degree deficient in physical stamina, and has upon
+its rolls a large number of men who by reason of their family relations
+and business responsibilities cannot be counted upon for service during
+any long period of war."
+
+It will thus be seen that not only in Canada, but also in the United
+States, the militia has become "mostly ornamental." But the United
+States is now awakening to the possibility of having to defend the
+Pacific coast against an Asiatic Power or combination of Powers holding
+command of the ocean, and promises to reorganise her militia. It is
+perhaps interesting to note that whilst to-day the British Imperial
+Defence authorities discourage Canada from any militia dispositions or
+manoeuvres founded on the idea of an invasion from the United States,
+the militia of the Republic, when it takes the field for mimic warfare,
+often presumes "an invasion by the British forces."
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XII
+
+THE NAVIES OF THE PACIFIC
+
+
+The present year (1912) is not a good one for an estimate of the naval
+forces of the Pacific. The Powers interested in the destiny of that
+ocean have but recently awakened to a sense of the importance of speedy
+naval preparation to avert, or to face with confidence, the struggle
+that they deem to be impending. By 1915 the naval forces in the Pacific
+will be vastly greater, and the opening of the Panama Canal will have
+materially altered the land frontiers of the ocean. A statement of the
+naval forces of to-day, to be useful, must be combined with a reasonable
+forecast of their strength in 1915.
+
+Following, for convenience' sake, geographical order, the Pacific Powers
+have naval strength as follows:--
+
+_Russia._--Russia is spending some £12,000,000 a year on her navy, and
+is said to contemplate a force of sixteen "Dreadnoughts." Of these, four
+are now in hand, but the date of their completion is uncertain. At
+present Russia has no effective naval force in the Pacific, and but
+little elsewhere. The "Dreadnoughts" building--which are of a
+much-criticised type--are intended for use in European waters. The
+naval force of Russia in the Pacific for the present and the near future
+may be set down as negligible.
+
+_Japan._--Japan has two battleships of the "Dreadnought" class, the
+_Satsuma_ and the _Aki_, in actual commission. By the time that this
+book is in print there should be two more in commission. They were
+launched in November 1910. According to modern methods of computation,
+a navy can be best judged by its "Dreadnought" strength, always
+presuming that the subsidiary vessels of a Fleet unit--cruisers,
+destroyers and submarines--are maintained in proper proportion of
+strength. Japan's naval programme aims at a combination of fortress
+ships ("Dreadnoughts"), speed ships (destroyers) and submarines, in
+practically the same proportion as that ruling in the British navy. The
+full programme, at first dated for completion in 1915, now in 1920,
+provides for twenty modern battleships, twenty modern armoured
+cruisers, one hundred destroyers, fifty submarines and various other
+boats. But it is likely that financial need will prevent that programme
+from being realised. For the current year the Japanese naval estimates
+amount to £8,800,000. At present the Japanese navy includes some two
+hundred ships, of which thirty-eight are practically useless. The
+possibly useful Fleet comprises seventeen battleships and battleship
+cruisers, nine armoured cruisers, fifty-seven destroyers, twelve
+submarines, four torpedo gunboats and forty-nine torpedo boats.
+
+The Japanese navy is by far the strongest force in the Pacific, and is
+the only navy in the world with actual experience of up-to-date warfare,
+though its experience, recent as it is, has not tested the value of the
+"Dreadnought" type, which theoretically is the only effective type of
+battleship.
+
+_China._--At present China has twenty-six small boats in commission and
+five building. Her biggest fighting ship is a protected cruiser carrying
+six-inch guns. The naval strength of China is thus negligible.
+
+_The United States._--The United States cannot be considered as a
+serious Pacific naval Power until the Panama Canal has been
+completed.[7] Then under certain circumstances the greater part of her
+Fleet would be available for service in the Pacific. She spends some
+£26,000,000 yearly on her navy. She has at present four "Dreadnoughts"
+in commission, and by the time that this book is in print should have
+six. Her building programme provides for two new "Dreadnoughts," and the
+proper complement of smaller craft, each year.
+
+In the last annual report on the United States navy (December 1911),
+Secretary Meyer stated that a total of forty battleships, with a
+proportional number of other fighting and auxiliary vessels, was the
+least that would place the United States on a safe basis in its
+relations with the other world Powers, and "while at least two other
+Powers have more ambitious building plans, it is believed that if we
+maintain an efficient Fleet of the size mentioned, we shall be secure
+from attack, and our country will be free to work out its destiny in
+peace and without hindrance. The history of all times, including the
+present, shows the futility and danger of trusting to good-will and fair
+dealing, or even to the most solemnly binding treaties between nations,
+for the protection of a nation's sovereign rights and interests, and
+without doubt the time is remote when a comparatively unarmed and
+helpless nation may be reasonably safe from attack by ambitious
+well-armed Powers, especially in a commercial age such as the present."
+
+Battleships 36 and 37, at the time in course of construction, were, he
+claimed, a distinct advance on any vessels in existence. These vessels
+would be oil-burners, and would carry no coal. They were to be of about
+the same size as the _Delaware_, but their machinery would weigh 3000
+tons less, or a saving of 30 per cent., and the fire-room force would be
+reduced by 50 per cent. Concluding his report, Mr. Meyer said: "The
+Panama Canal is destined to become the most important strategical point
+in the Western Hemisphere, and makes a Caribbean base absolutely
+necessary. The best base is Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, which Cuba has ceded
+to the United States for naval purposes. This base will enable the
+United States to control the Caribbean with all its lines of approach to
+the canal, and, with a torpedo base at Key West, will render the Gulf of
+Mexico immune from attack."
+
+A new type of war machine, which is a combination of a submarine and a
+torpedo boat, is now being prepared for use in the United States navy.
+She is known as the "sub-surface torpedo boat." There is a submarine
+hull with machinery and torpedo armaments, and a surface hull--said to
+be unsinkable--divided into compartments. The whole vessel weighs six
+tons, can be carried on the deck of a battleship, travels eighteen knots
+an hour for a radius of two hundred miles, and needs a crew of two men.
+She carries a thousand pounds of gun-cotton. The sub-surface boat may be
+used as an ordinary torpedo boat, or she may be bodily directed at a
+hostile ship after her crew of two have left. It is estimated that the
+sub-surface boat will cost about £5000, all told, and it seems possible
+that it will be a serious weapon of naval warfare.
+
+_Great Britain._--Great Britain spent last year nearly £45,000,000 on
+her navy, which is the supreme naval force of the world. But its weight
+in a Pacific combat at present would be felt chiefly in regard to
+keeping the ring clear. No European Power hostile to Great Britain could
+send a Fleet into the Pacific. The United States could not despatch its
+Atlantic Fleet for service in the Pacific without a foreknowledge of
+benevolent neutrality on the part of Great Britain.
+
+At the Imperial Defence Conference of 1909, it was decided to re-create
+the British Pacific Fleet, which, after the alliance with Japan, had
+been allowed to dwindle to insignificance. The future Pacific naval
+strength of Great Britain may be set down, estimating most
+conservatively, at a unit on the China station consisting of one
+"Dreadnought" cruiser, three swift unarmoured cruisers, six destroyers
+and three submarines. This would match the Australian unit of the same
+strength. But it is probable that a far greater strength will shortly be
+reached. It may be accepted as an axiom that the British--_i.e._ the
+Home Country--Fleet in Pacific waters will be at least kept up to the
+strength of the Australian unit. The future growth of that unit is
+indicated in the report on naval defence presented to the Commonwealth
+Government by Admiral Sir Reginald Henderson, a report which has been
+accepted in substance.
+
+He proposes a completed Fleet to be composed as follows:--
+
+                  8 Armoured Cruisers,
+                 10 Protected Cruisers,
+                 18 Destroyers,
+                 12 Submarines,
+                  3 Depôt Ships for Flotillas,
+                  1 Fleet Repair Ship,
+                 --
+                 52.
+
+This Fleet would, when fully manned, require a personnel of
+approximately 15,000 officers and men.
+
+The Fleet to be divided into two divisions as follows:--
+
+                     EASTERN DIVISION.
+ +---------------------------+--------------------------+
+ |                           |           Number.        |
+ |                           +-----------+-------+------+
+ |  Class of Vessel.         |In Full    | With  |Total.|
+ |                           |Commission.|Reduced|      |
+ |                           |           | Crew. |      |
+ +---------------------------+-----------+-------+------+
+ |                           |           |       |      |
+ |Armoured cruiser           |      3    |   1   |   4  |
+ |Protected cruiser          |      3    |   2   |   5  |
+ |Torpedo-boat destroyer     |      8    |   4   |  12  |
+ |Submarine                  |      3    |  ...  |   3  |
+ |Depôt ship for torpedo-boat|           |       |      |
+ |  destroyers               |      2    |  ...  |   2  |
+ |Fleet repair ship          |     ...   |  ...  |  ... |
+ |                           +-----------+-------+------+
+ |               Total       |     19    |   7   |  26  |
+ +---------------------------+-----------+-------+------+
+ |                                                      |
+ |                   WESTERN DIVISION.                  |
+ |                                                      |
+ +---------------------------+-----------+-------+------+
+ |Armoured cruiser           |      3    |   1   |   4  |
+ |Protected cruiser          |      3    |   2   |   5  |
+ |Torpedo-boat destroyer     |      4    |   2   |   6  |
+ |Submarine                  |      9    |  ...  |   9  |
+ |Depôt ship for torpedo-boat|           |       |      |
+ |  destroyers               |      1    |  ...  |   1  |
+ |Fleet repair ship          |      1    |  ...  |   1  |
+ |                           +-----------+-------+------+
+ |               Total       |     21    |   5   |  26  |
+ +---------------------------+-----------+-------+------+
+ |    Grand total of both    |           |       |      |
+ |      divisions            |     40    |  12   |  52  |
+ +---------------------------+-----------+-------+------+
+
+That would necessitate £3,000,000 a year expenditure for the first five
+years, rising gradually to £5,000,000 a year. To this the Australian
+Government is understood to be agreeable.
+
+New Zealand does not propose to organise a naval force of her own, but
+will assist the British Admiralty with a subsidy. That subsidy is to be
+devoted to the use of the unit in China waters.
+
+Canada's naval plans at present are not known. After the Imperial
+Defence Conference of 1909 Sir Wilfrid Laurier found both his instincts
+for frugality and for peace outraged by the forward policy favoured by
+other of the Dominions. He decided to sacrifice the former and not the
+latter, and embarked on a naval programme which, whilst it involved a
+good deal of expenditure, made it fairly certain that no Canadian
+warship would ever fire a shot in anger, since none would be completed
+until she had become hopelessly obsolete. His successor in office has
+stopped that naval programme. It is possible that the new administration
+will decide that Canada should contribute in some effective form to
+Imperial naval defence, and she may be responsible for a naval unit in
+the Pacific.
+
+_Latin America._--Brazil (whose interests, however, are in the Atlantic
+rather than the Pacific) has two modern battleships of the "Dreadnought"
+type, and one other building. Chili has at present no really modern
+warship, but projects two "Dreadnoughts" and up-to-date small craft. The
+existing Fleet consists of one battleship, two armoured cruisers, and
+four protected cruisers. The Republic of Argentine has at present
+several vessels practically obsolete, the most modern cruisers having
+been built in 1896. There are three battleships, four armoured
+cruisers, and three protected cruisers. A modern navy is projected with,
+as a nucleus, two 25,000-ton battleships of twenty-two knots, armed with
+twelve-inch guns. Mexico, Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay,
+Venezuela, have no useful Fleets.
+
+The following table will give as accurate a forecast as possible of
+naval strength in the Pacific in the immediate future:--
+
+           "DREADNOUGHT" TYPES IN 1912 AND 1915.
+
+                                  1912.   1915.
+
+           British Empire          20      38
+           Germany                 11      21
+           United States            8      14
+           Japan                    4       8
+           Brazil                   3       4
+           Argentine Republic     ...       2
+           Chili                  ...       2
+
+_Note._--All the South American "Dreadnoughts" are open to some doubt,
+though Brazil has three vessels of the type actually in the water.
+Battleships and cruisers of the "Dreadnought" type are included in the
+above table. It has been computed on the presumption that there will be
+no change in the 1912 naval programmes. The United States, the British
+Empire and Japan, are stronger in battleships of the pre-Dreadnought
+period than is Germany. Russia is ignored, for she has no present
+intention of restoring her Pacific naval Power. Germany is included
+because of her future position as the second naval Power of the world,
+and her possible appearance in the Pacific as the ally of one or other
+of the Powers established there now.
+
+The following additional table deals not merely with warships of the
+"Dreadnought" type, but with the effective tonnage, _i.e._ the tonnage
+of ships of all classes of the three greatest naval Powers:--
+
+           "EFFECTIVE TONNAGE" IN 1912 AND 1913-14.
+
+                              1912.        1913-14.
+
+         British Empire    1,896,149      2,324,579
+         United States       757,711       885,066
+         Germany             749,699     1,087,399
+
+FOOTNOTES:
+
+[7] A "Reuter" telegram from Washington, dated March 17, stated:
+
+"Significant orders have been issued by the Navy Department directing
+three big armoured cruisers of the Pacific Fleet to proceed immediately
+to the Philippines for an indefinite stay. Their arrival will make the
+American Fleet in the Orient the most powerful there excepting the
+Japanese. The vessels under order are the cruisers _California_, _South
+Dakota_, and _Colorado_."
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XIII
+
+THE ARMIES OF THE PACIFIC
+
+
+The military forces available for service in the Pacific are those (1)
+of Russia; (2) of China; (3) of Japan; (4) of the United States; (5) of
+the British Empire including India; (6) of the Latin-American peoples of
+Mexico and South America. The great armies of France, Germany, and
+Austro-Hungary can have no voice in the destinies of the Pacific Ocean
+unless indirectly, as, for instance, through Germany or Austria helping
+or hindering a Russian movement in the Far East by guaranteeing or
+threatening her European frontier.
+
+The Russian army, though driven back by the forces of Japan during the
+recent war, still demands respectful consideration in any calculations
+as to the future of the Asian littoral of the Pacific Ocean. The
+Russians, as has been pointed out in a previous chapter, fought that
+campaign under many serious disadvantages. The Siberian railway gave
+them a very slender line of communication with their base. Now that
+railway is being duplicated, and in a future war would have at least
+double its old military capacity. The conditions of unrest at home in
+Russia during the war were so serious as almost to paralyse the
+executive government. Those conditions are not likely to be repeated,
+since Russia has now entered upon a fairly peaceful, if somewhat slow,
+progress towards constitutional reform. In a war on a land frontier for
+which the people were enthusiastic, the military power of Russia would
+be tremendous, though there was never any real foundation for the bogey
+of Russia as an all-powerful aggressive force.
+
+The Russian army, based upon conditions of universal liability to
+service, can muster in the field for war some 4,000,000 of men. But
+considering the vast frontiers to be defended, and the great claims
+therefore made by garrison fortresses, it is not likely that more than
+1,500,000 could be mobilised in any one district. It is reasonably
+possible to imagine a Russian army of a million men being brought to and
+maintained on the Pacific littoral: of an even greater army based on,
+say, Harbin. That would be a formidable force, especially if enrolled to
+fight for the White Races against an Asiatic peril: for then it would
+share the old military enthusiasm of the Cossacks.
+
+There is nothing which will give the inquirer into national
+characteristics a better key to the Russian than a knowledge of the old
+Cossack organisation. It was formed, in the days of Russia's making as a
+nation, from the free spirits of the land, suffering on the one side
+from Turkish cruelty, on the other from the devastations of the
+Tartars. "Cossacks" meant simply "free men," and, at the outset, they
+were freebooters mainly, the Robin Hoods and Hereward the Wakes of
+Russia. But the patriotic work of resisting the Tartars and the Turks
+gave them a national aim, and in time they formed a military and
+religious organisation, unique in the history of European civilisation.
+From the village Cossacks--irregular volunteer troops, pursuing normally
+the life of villagers, but ready ever to take up arms against Tartar or
+Turkish bandits, or to become in turn themselves raiders of the enemy's
+caravans and villages--sprung up the Cossack Zaporojskoe, garrisoning
+the "Setch," a great military camp in the heart of the Cossack country.
+The Cossacks who joined the Setch devoted themselves wholly to military
+life. They had to swear to complete chastity, to abstinence whilst at
+war from alcohol, and to obedience to the Greek Church. The Cossack
+could leave the Setch if he were so inclined, but while he remained
+within its boundaries discipline was inexorable.
+
+In the Setch there was neither organised training, nor compulsory drill,
+nor military manoeuvres. With the exception of a few elected officers,
+there were, in time of peace, no social distinctions; but the bravest
+and the most experienced were treated with respect. For war a Cossack
+was elected to command each hundred men; his power was absolute. Several
+hundreds formed a regiment, with a colonel at its head, a temporary
+officer, elected for one campaign only. The organisation had some
+artillery and infantry, but its chief strength lay in its cavalry. It
+also built a Fleet of small boats with which it repeatedly raided the
+Turkish coast.
+
+This military monastic order passed away with the closer organisation of
+the Russian nation. Despotic Czars could not tolerate a community so
+formidable in its virtues. Characteristically enough, it was Catherine
+the Great who dealt the final blow to the Cossack Setch. But the Cossack
+organisation and spirit, as well as the Cossack name, survive in the
+Russian army to-day, and the million or so men whom Russia could muster
+on the shores of the North Pacific might have some great say in the
+future destinies of the ocean.
+
+The Japanese army of to-day, an army of veterans, must be credited, in
+calculating its value as a military engine, with the moral force of its
+record of victory. I confess to a belief in the superiority of the White
+Man, _qua_ White Man over any Asiatic: and I am not inclined, therefore,
+to accept Japanese generalship and Japanese initiative at their Tokio
+valuation. But the 600,000 men whom Japan can put into the field,
+perfect in discipline, armed as to the infantry with a first-class
+rifle, a little deficient though they may be in artillery and cavalry,
+is a most formidable force, unassailable in Japan's home territory, not
+to be regarded lightly if called to a campaign on the Asiatic mainland.
+Since the war with Russia the Japanese army has been increased: the fact
+is evidence of the unslaked warlike enthusiasm of the people.
+
+China will probably emerge from her present revolutionary troubles,
+whatever may be their result, with a seasoned army of great proportions.
+The actual military organisation of China at the time of the outbreak of
+the present revolt was somewhat nebulous. But an effort was being made
+to organise an Imperial army (on plans laid down in 1905) which would
+have numbered about 360,000 men trained on the Japanese model. Should
+the reformed China decide to follow in the footsteps of Japan as regards
+military organisation, the Chinese field force of the future would
+number some 2,500,000 men. It is already announced that the new Chinese
+Republic will adopt universal military training as part of its system of
+national reorganisation.
+
+The United States, relying on a purely voluntary system for its military
+organisation, has, in the opinion of most critics, the framework of an
+army rather than an army. The peace strength of the United States
+regular army is about 100,000, and from these the Philippine garrison
+draws 13,000 men, and the Hawaiian garrison 1000 of all ranks. A
+partially trained militia numbers about 100,000 men. For the rest there
+are 16,000,000 of men of military age in the nation, but they are
+absolutely untrained. In case of a powerful enemy obtaining naval
+control of the Pacific, there is danger that the United States would
+suffer the ignominy of the occupation, for a time, of her Pacific coast.
+
+British military forces available for the Pacific come under three
+headings:
+
+     British garrisons in India and elsewhere in the Pacific.
+
+     The citizen armies of Australia and New Zealand, and the militia
+     forces of Canada.
+
+     The Sepoy forces in India.
+
+The British garrisons total some 80,000 men. They may be classed,
+without prejudice, among the best troops in the world, well trained and
+with some experience of warfare. But the majority of them are stationed
+in India, and few of them could be safely drawn from there in an
+emergency. The Sepoy troops number some 250,000, officered generally by
+British leaders. It is conceivable that a portion of them could be used
+outside of India against coloured races.
+
+The citizen armies of Australia and New Zealand must be spoken of in the
+future tense: for their organisation has just begun, and it will be some
+five years before that organisation will be well under way. But so
+important is the bearing on Pacific problems of the training of some
+quarter of a million of citizen soldiers in the Australasian Dominions
+of the British Empire, that attention must be given here to a
+description of this army of the future.
+
+Taking the Australian organisation as the model: The population of
+Australia in 1911 was about 4-1/2 millions, of whom there were, on the
+basis of the last census--
+
+    188,000 males of 14 years and under 18 years; and
+    295,000 males of 18 years and under 25 years.
+
+Allowing for those living in districts too thinly populated to admit of
+training without excessive expenditure, or medically unfit for training,
+upon the figures at present available, it is estimated that Australia
+will have in training, when the scheme is in full operation, each year--
+
+    100,000 senior cadets; and
+    112,000 citizen soldiers.
+
+The system will give in eight years' time a force of 126,000 trained
+men, and fully equipped. Every year afterwards will increase the reserve
+by 12,000 men. And if the training be extended into the country areas,
+the numbers may be increased by 40 per cent. Increase of population will
+bring, too, an increase of numbers, and my estimate of an eventual
+200,000 for the Australian army and 50,000 for the New Zealand army is
+probably correct.
+
+For the leading positions in this army there is provision to train a
+number of professional officers. The Military College of Australia is
+already in existence, and is organised on a basis of simplicity and
+efficiency which reflects the serious purpose of this democratic
+military organisation. It is not reserved for the children of the rich.
+It is not allowed to become intolerable to the children of the poor by
+the luxury of wealthy cadets. To quote from the official conditions:--
+
+"The Military College of Australia is established to educate candidates
+for commissions in all arms of the Military Forces of the Commonwealth.
+
+"Only candidates who intend to make the Military Forces their profession
+in life will be admitted as Cadets to the Military College. Parents or
+guardians are therefore not at liberty to withdraw their sons or wards
+at will.
+
+"Cadets, in joining the Military College, shall be enlisted in the
+Permanent Military Forces for a term of twelve years. Service as a Cadet
+at the Military College shall be deemed service in the ranks of the
+Permanent Military Forces of the Commonwealth.
+
+"No fees will be charged for equipment or instruction or maintenance of
+Cadets, and their travelling expenses within the Commonwealth between
+their parents' or guardians' residences and the College will be paid on
+first joining and on graduation.
+
+"The following charges will be admitted against the public and credited
+to Cadets' accounts after they have joined:--
+
+     "Outfit allowance--£30 on joining.
+
+     "Daily allowance of five shillings and sixpence (5s. 6d.) to cover
+     cost of uniform and clothing, books, instruments, messing, washing
+     and other expenses.
+
+"No Cadet will be permitted to receive money, or any other supplies from
+his parents or guardians, or any person whomsoever, without the
+sanction of the Commandant. A most rigid observance of this order is
+urged upon all parents and guardians, as its violation would make
+distinctions between Cadets, which it is particularly desired to
+prevent.
+
+"No Cadet, when within the Federal Territory, or when absent on duty
+from College, or when in uniform, shall drink any spirituous or
+intoxicating liquor, or bring or cause the same to be brought within the
+College, or have the same in his room, tent, or otherwise in his
+possession.
+
+"Gambling, lotteries, and raffles are strictly prohibited. They are
+serious offences, which will be severely punished.
+
+"Smoking may be permitted during certain hours and in authorised places.
+The smoking of cigarettes is at all times prohibited. A Cadet found in
+possession of cigarettes is liable to punishment for disobedience of
+orders."
+
+Canada has a militia force credited at present with a total strength of
+55,000 men. Sir Wilfrid Laurier, who controlled the destinies of Canada
+for fifteen years up to 1911, was no military enthusiast and believed
+profoundly in a peaceful future for his country. In one respect, and in
+one respect only, Canada under his rule progressed in defence
+organisation: she had her own rifle factory turning out a rifle of
+Canadian design.
+
+But a new spirit moves in Canada to-day in matters of Defence as in
+other things. I remember in 1909 speaking at Toronto in advocacy of a
+system of universal training for military service. Lieut.-Col. Wm.
+Hamilton Merritt, a Canadian militia officer who had learned enthusiasm
+for the idea of a "citizen army" on a visit to Switzerland, invited me
+to come up to Toronto from New York to speak on the Australian campaign
+for the universal training of citizens. The meeting was friendly but not
+particularly enthusiastic. My strongest recollection of it is that one
+Canadian paper most unjustifiably and absurdly twisted some words of
+mine advocating Canadian self-reliance into advice that Canada should
+arm "to attack the United States." But the outcome of the meeting was
+that a "Canadian Patriotic League" was formed, and from it sprang the
+"Canadian Defence League, a non-political association to urge the
+importance to Canada of universal physical and naval or military
+training." For two years and more, in spite of the earnest efforts of
+Canadian enthusiasts, the movement languished. After the General
+Election of 1911, however, a quickening came to every department of
+Canadian life, and this particularly showed itself in matters of
+Defence. In November of that year, Colonel the Hon. S. Hughes, the
+Canadian Minister of Militia, called a conference of experts to consider
+the organisation of the militia. To that conference the Canadian Defence
+League was invited to send representatives, and their presence seemed to
+inspire the whole gathering with an enthusiasm for a universal service
+system. Summarising from a report sent to me by the Canadian Defence
+League: "Universal military training has at last become a live issue
+throughout the Dominion of Canada. It was the mainspring behind the
+whole machinery of the Militia Conference; almost every man present was
+in favour of it, but a few, if the question had come to vote, would have
+either refrained from voting or voted against it, because they were
+afraid of the possibility of being misunderstood by the public at large.
+The cavalry section made no recommendation, and the infantry section
+discussed it, while the artillery, which is always in the front, was
+strongly in favour of it. Colonel Logie of Hamilton moved and Colonel
+Fotheringham of Toronto seconded a resolution recommending the adoption
+of the Australian system in Canada. This motion was with a view to
+placing the conference on record; but the Minister, in his wisdom, held
+the resolution in abeyance, and it did not come to a vote. But in the
+closing hours of the conference Senator Power of Nova Scotia positively
+and definitely advocated universal military training for the whole of
+Canada."
+
+A universal service system in Canada would provide a citizen army
+of--probably--250,000 men of the finest type: and the effect of this
+force on Pacific issues would be equal to that of the combined armies of
+Australia and New Zealand.
+
+The military strength of Latin America (the South American Republics and
+Mexico) it is difficult to estimate accurately. In almost all cases the
+constitution of the Republics provides for "universal service" but fails
+to provide for universal training for service. Under modern conditions
+of warfare, it is useless to enact that men shall serve unless the
+necessary sacrifices of money and leisure are made to train them to
+serve. Raw levies could be made of some use almost immediately in a past
+epoch of warfare, when the soldier with his "Brown Bess" musket had the
+injunction from the drill sergeant to "wait until he could see the
+whites of the eyes" of his enemy and then to fire. That needed stolid
+nerves mainly, and but little training. In these days raw levies would
+be worse than useless, of no value in battles, a burden on the
+commissariat and hospital services between battles. The Latin-American
+armies must be judged in the light of that fact. Apart from that
+caution, the numbers are imposing enough.
+
+Mexico has an army organisation providing for 30,000 men on a peace
+footing and 84,000 men on a war footing. The Argentine army on a peace
+footing is about 18,000 strong; on a war footing about 120,000 strong,
+exclusive of the National Guard and Territorial troops (forming a second
+line). In the Republic of Bolivia the peace footing of the army is 2500:
+the probable war footing 30,000. The Republic of Brazil has a universal
+service system. The peace strength of the army is 29,000 (to which may
+be added a gendarmerie of 20,000). On the outbreak of war there could be
+mobilised, it is claimed, five divisions totalling, say, 60,000 men.
+Chili has, on a peace footing, about 10,000 men; on a war footing
+50,000, exclusive of the reserves (about 34,000). Colombia makes every
+man liable to service, but the training is not regular. Possibly 10,000
+men could be mobilised in time of war. Ecuador maintains a permanent
+force of about 5000 men, and claims that it could mobilise 90,000 in
+case of war. Paraguay has a permanent force of 2500 men and a National
+Guard available for service in case of war.
+
+The South American has proved himself, on occasions, a good and plucky
+fighter. But I doubt whether his military forces can be seriously
+considered as a factor in the fate of the Pacific, except in the matter
+of defending his own territory from invasion. The only armies that count
+greatly to-day in the Pacific are those of Japan, Russia, and Great
+Britain, in that order, with China and the United States as potential
+rather than actual military forces.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XIV
+
+TREATIES IN THE PACIFIC
+
+
+There is one actual alliance between two Pacific Powers, Great Britain
+and Japan: an _entente_ between Great Britain and Russia: and an
+instinct towards friendliness between Great Britain and the United
+States. There are several other possible combinations affecting the
+ocean in the future. But no Power of the Triple Alliance, nor yet
+France, can be considered a factor in the Pacific except in so far as it
+may help or hinder a Power already established there. Germany, for
+instance, might enter the Pacific as an ally of Japan or the United
+States; but she could not without an alliance bring naval or military
+force there unless Great Britain had first been humbled in a European
+war.
+
+To the alliance between Great Britain and Japan not very much importance
+can be ascribed since its revision in 1911. It threatens to die now of
+inanition, as it becomes clear that British aims and Japanese aims in
+the Pacific do not move towards a common end. The first British-Japanese
+treaty, signed on January 30, 1902, had for its main provisions--
+
+"The Governments of Great Britain and Japan, actuated solely by a desire
+to maintain the _status quo_ and general peace in the extreme East,
+being moreover specially interested in maintaining the independence and
+territorial integrity of the Empire of China and the Empire of Corea,
+and in securing equal opportunities in those countries for the commerce
+and industry of all nations, hereby agree as follows:--
+
+"The High Contracting Parties, having mutually recognised the
+independence of China and of Corea, declare themselves to be entirely
+uninfluenced by any aggressive tendencies in either country. Having in
+view, however, their special interests, of which those of Great Britain
+relate principally to China, while Japan, in addition to the interests
+which she possesses in China, is interested in a peculiar degree
+politically, as well as commercially and industrially, in Corea, the
+High Contracting Parties recognise that it will be admissible for either
+of them to take such measures as may be indispensable in order to
+safeguard those interests if threatened either by the aggressive action
+of any other Power, or by disturbances arising in China or Corea, and
+necessitating the intervention of either of the High Contracting Parties
+for the protection of the lives and property of its subjects.
+
+"If either Great Britain or Japan, in the defence of their respective
+interests as above described, should become involved in war with another
+Power, the other High Contracting Party will maintain a strict
+neutrality, and use its efforts to prevent other Powers from joining in
+hostilities against its ally.
+
+"If in the above event any other Power or Powers should join in
+hostilities against that ally, the other High Contracting Party will
+come to its assistance and will conduct the war in common, and make
+peace in mutual agreement with it.
+
+"The High Contracting Parties agree that neither of them will, without
+consulting the other, enter into separate arrangements with another
+Power to the prejudice of the interests above described.
+
+"Whenever, in the opinion of either Great Britain or Japan, the
+above-mentioned interests are in jeopardy, the two Governments will
+communicate with one another fully and frankly."
+
+A letter covering the treaty, addressed by the Marquess of Lansdowne to
+the British Minister at Tokio, Sir C. Macdonald, explained the fact that
+there was to be no disturbance of Chinese or Corean territory: "We have
+each of us desired that the integrity and independence of the Chinese
+Empire should be preserved, that there should be no disturbance of the
+territorial _status quo_ either in China or in the adjoining regions,
+that all nations should, within those regions, as well as within the
+limits of the Chinese Empire, be afforded equal opportunities for the
+development of their commerce and industry, and that peace should not
+only be restored, but should, for the future, be maintained. We have
+thought it desirable to record in the preamble of that instrument the
+main objects of our common policy in the Far East to which I have
+already referred, and in the first Article we join in entirely
+disclaiming any aggressive tendencies either in China or Corea."
+
+But that stipulation did nothing to safeguard Corea's independence,
+which was soon sacrificed to Japanese ambition. There was a widespread
+feeling of uneasiness in the British Dominions in the Pacific when this
+treaty was announced. At the time Canada was having serious trouble on
+her Pacific Coast with Japanese immigrants, and the Canadian Pacific
+provinces were anxious to prohibit absolutely the entry of more Japanese
+to their territory.[8] Australia in 1901 had made the first great deed
+of her new national organisation a law practically prohibiting all
+coloured immigration, and making the entry of Japanese colonists
+impossible. The Act certainly veiled its hostility to the Asiatic races
+by a subterfuge. It was not stated in so many words that black skin,
+brown skin, and yellow skin were prohibited from entry, but an
+educational standard was set up which might be applied to any immigrant,
+but needed to be applied to none. In practice it is never applied to the
+decent White but always to the coloured man: and its application is such
+that the coloured man can never be sure that his standard of education
+will be sufficiently high to satisfy the fastidious sense of culture of
+an Australian Customs officer. He may be a learned Baboo, B.A. of
+Oxford, and Barrister of the Inner Temple, and yet fail to pass the
+Australian Education Test, for the ordeal is to take dictation in any
+European language, not necessarily English, but perhaps Russian or
+modern Greek. New Zealand, without going so far by her legislation,
+shows an equal repugnance to any form of Asiatic immigration.
+
+The "official" view of the British Alliance with Japan, advocated with
+some energy, was that it was a benefit to the White Dominions in the
+Pacific, for it made them secure against the one aggressive Asiatic
+Power. But nevertheless the policy of making the wolf a guardian of the
+sheep-fold was questioned in many quarters. The question was asked:
+"Presuming a Pacific war in which the United States was the enemy of
+Japan?" The answer in the minds of many, in Australia at any rate, and
+probably also in Canada and New Zealand, was that in such event the
+sympathy, if not the active support, of the British Dominions in the
+Pacific would be with the United States, whether Great Britain kept to
+her Treaty or not. It was recognised, however, as almost unthinkable
+that Great Britain would go to war by the side of Japan against the
+American Republic.
+
+Great Britain is very sensitive to the opinions of her Dominions in
+these days of the industrious promulgation of Imperialist sentiment in
+Great Britain: and a Canadian or an Australian voter--though he has no
+vote for the House of Commons--has far more influence on the destinies
+of the Empire than his British compeer. The overseas objection to the
+Treaty with Japan had its full effect in the British Cabinet, and that
+effect was seen in subsequent modifications of the Treaty.
+
+On August 12, 1905, the British-Japanese Treaty was renewed, and the
+chief articles of the new treaty were:--
+
+"The Governments of Great Britain and Japan, being desirous of replacing
+the agreement concluded between them on the 30th January, 1902, by fresh
+stipulations, have agreed upon the following articles, which have for
+their object--
+
+"(a) The consolidation and maintenance of the general peace in the
+regions of Eastern Asia and of India;
+
+"(b) The preservation of the common interests of all Powers in China by
+insuring the independence and integrity of the Chinese Empire and the
+principle of equal opportunities for the commerce and industry of all
+nations in China;
+
+"(c) The maintenance of the territorial rights of the High Contracting
+Parties in the regions of Eastern Asia and of India, and the defence of
+their special interests in the said regions:--
+
+"It is agreed that whenever, in the opinion of either Great Britain or
+Japan, any of the rights and interests referred to in the preamble of
+this Agreement are in jeopardy, the two Governments will communicate
+with one another fully and frankly, and will consider in common the
+measures which should be taken to safeguard those menaced rights or
+interests.
+
+"If by reason of unprovoked attack or aggressive action, wherever
+arising, on the part of any other Power or Powers, either Contracting
+Party should be involved in war in defence of its territorial rights or
+special interests mentioned in the preamble of this Agreement, the other
+Contracting Party will at once come to the assistance of its ally, and
+will conduct the war in common, and make peace in mutual agreement with
+it.
+
+"Japan possessing paramount political, military, and economic interests
+in Corea, Great Britain recognises the right of Japan to take such
+measures of guidance, control, and protection in Corea as she may deem
+proper and necessary to safeguard and advance those interests, provided
+always that such measures are not contrary to the principle of equal
+opportunities for the commerce and industry of all nations.
+
+"Great Britain having a special interest in all that concerns the
+security of the Indian frontier, Japan recognises her right to take such
+measures in the proximity of that frontier as she may find necessary for
+safeguarding her Indian possessions.
+
+"The High Contracting Parties agree that neither of them will, without
+consulting the other, enter into separate arrangements with another
+Power to the prejudice of the objects described in the preamble of this
+Agreement.
+
+"The conditions under which armed assistance shall be afforded by either
+Power to the other in the circumstances mentioned in the present
+Agreement, and the means by which such assistance is to be made
+available, will be arranged by the naval and military authorities of the
+Contracting Parties, who will from time to time consult one another
+fully and freely upon all questions of mutual interest.
+
+"The present Agreement shall, subject to the provisions of Article VI.,
+come into effect immediately after the date of its signature, and remain
+in force for ten years from that date."
+
+It will be noted that there is, as regards the general responsibility
+under the Treaty, some watering down. One Power is bound to come to the
+help of the other Power only by reason of "unprovoked attack or
+aggressive action" on the part of another Power. The fiction of
+preserving the independence of Corea is abandoned.
+
+On April 3, 1911, a Treaty of Commerce and Navigation was entered into
+between Great Britain and Japan. The Japanese Government had revised its
+tariff in such a way as to prejudice seriously foreign trade. It was
+announced in Japan that certain nations would have the benefit of
+"most-favoured nation" rates under the new tariff, but that Great
+Britain would not have that benefit, since, being a Free Trade country,
+she was able to give no concessions in return. Then the diplomatic
+Treaty of 1905 was used by the British Government as an argument for
+securing more favoured treatment for British merchants. If the Trade
+Treaty of 1911 is closely studied, it will be found that the trade
+advantages given to Japan by Great Britain, in return for some real
+concessions on the part of Japan to Great Britain, are wholly illusory.
+It is difficult to see how they could have been otherwise, since a Free
+Trade country can give nothing better than Free Trade to another
+country. But Great Britain, a good deal out of conceit at this time with
+the diplomatic value of the Treaty of 1905, did not hesitate to use it
+as a means of securing some trade benefits. The effect on Japanese
+public opinion was not favourable. But the diplomatic position had so
+changed that that was not considered a serious circumstance in Great
+Britain.
+
+Two articles of the British-Japanese Trade Treaty of 1911 should be
+quoted to show the mutual acceptance by the two Powers of the
+independent right of the British overseas Dominions to restrict or
+prohibit Japanese immigration:
+
+"The subjects of each of the High Contracting Parties shall have full
+liberty to enter, travel and reside in the territories of the other,
+and, conforming themselves to the laws of the country,
+
+"They shall in all that relates to travel and residence be placed in all
+respects on the same footing as native subjects.
+
+"They shall have the right, equally with native subjects, to carry on
+their commerce and manufacture, and to trade in all kinds of merchandise
+of lawful commerce, either in person or by agents, singly or in
+partnerships with foreigners or native subjects.
+
+"They shall in all that relates to the pursuit of their industries,
+callings, professions, and educational studies be placed in all respects
+on the same footing as the subjects or citizens of the most favoured
+nation."
+
+But Article 26 makes this reservation:
+
+"The stipulations of the present Treaty shall not be applicable to any
+of His Britannic Majesty's Dominions, Colonies, Possessions, or
+Protectorates beyond the seas, unless notice of adhesion shall have been
+given on behalf of any such Dominion, Colony, Possession, or
+Protectorate by His Britannic Majesty's Representative at Tokio before
+the expiration of two years from the date of the exchange of the
+ratifications of the present Treaty."
+
+A few weeks after the conclusion of this Trade Treaty the
+British-Japanese Alliance was renewed on terms which practically "draw
+its sting" and abolish the contingency of a British-Japanese war against
+the United States, or against any Power with which Great Britain makes
+an Arbitration Treaty. The preamble of the British-Japanese Treaty now
+reads:
+
+"The Government of Great Britain and the Government of Japan, having in
+view the important changes which have taken place in the situation
+since the conclusion of the Anglo-Japanese Agreement of the 12th August,
+1905, and believing that a revision of that Agreement responding to such
+changes would contribute to the general stability and repose, have
+agreed upon the following stipulations to replace the Agreement above
+mentioned, such stipulations having the same object as the said
+Agreement, namely:
+
+"(a) The consolidation and maintenance of the general peace in the
+regions of Eastern Asia and of India.
+
+"(b) The preservation of the common interests of all Powers in China by
+insuring the independence and integrity of the Chinese Empire, and the
+principle of equal opportunities for the commerce and industry of all
+nations in China.
+
+"(c) The maintenance of the territorial rights of the High Contracting
+Parties in the regions of Eastern Asia and of India and the defence of
+their special interests in the said regions."
+
+The chief clauses are:
+
+"If, by reason of unprovoked attack or aggressive action wherever
+arising on the part of any Power or Powers, either High Contracting
+Party should be involved in war in defence of its territorial rights or
+special interests mentioned in the preamble of this Agreement, the other
+High Contracting Party will at once come to the assistance of its ally
+and will conduct the war in common and make peace in mutual agreement
+with it.
+
+"The High Contracting Parties agree that neither of them will, without
+consulting the other, enter into separate arrangements with another
+Power to the prejudice of the objects described in the preamble of this
+Agreement.
+
+"Should either High Contracting Party conclude a Treaty of General
+Arbitration with a third Power, it is agreed that nothing in this
+Agreement shall entail upon such Contracting Party an obligation to go
+to war with the Power with whom such Treaty of Arbitration is in force.
+
+"The present Agreement shall come into effect immediately after the date
+of its signature, and remain in force for ten years from that date."
+
+It will be recognised that there is very little left now of the very
+thorough Treaty of 1902. It does not suit Japanese foreign policy that
+this fact should be accentuated, and public opinion in that country has
+been generally muzzled. Nevertheless, some candid opinions on the
+subject have been published in the Japanese press. Thus the Osaka
+_Mainichi_ last January, discussing evidently a Japanese disappointment
+at the failure of Great Britain to join Japan in some move against
+Russia, claimed that "for all practical purposes, the Anglo-Japanese
+Alliance ended with its revision last July." In the opinion of the
+_Mainichi_, "the Alliance no longer furnishes any guarantee for the
+preservation of Chinese integrity. So far from Japan and Great Britain
+taking, as the terms of the Alliance provide, joint action to protect
+the rights and interests of the two nations when the same are
+threatened, no measures have been taken at all." According to the
+_Mainichi_, "England is no longer faithful to the principle of the
+Alliance as regards the territorial integrity of China, and it is even
+rumoured that she has intentions on Tibet, similar to those of Russia in
+Mongolia. Consequently it is a matter of supreme importance to know
+whether the Alliance is to be considered as still alive or not, and the
+Japanese Government would do well to make some explicit declaration on
+the subject."
+
+This view was supported by the Tokio _Nichi-Nichi_, which wrote: "For a
+long time now the feeling between Great Britain and Japan has been
+undergoing a change. There is no concealing the fact that it is no
+longer what it was before the Russo-Japanese War. At the time of the
+Tariff the friendly relations were only maintained by concessions from
+the side of the Japanese. The revision of the terms of the Alliance has
+reduced it from a real value to this country to a merely nominal value.
+The friendship which has been steadily growing between Great Britain and
+Russia is something to be watched. The action of Great Britain in the
+China trouble has not been true to the Alliance. The tacit consent given
+to Russian action in Mongolia is a violation of the integrity of China,
+and on top of it we are informed that Great Britain at the right moment
+will adopt similar steps in Tibet."
+
+The British-Japanese Treaty, for as much as it stands for, is the only
+definite treaty affecting big issues in the Pacific to-day. To attempt
+to discuss all possible treaties and combinations in the Pacific would
+be, of course, impossible. But some notice must be given of the recent
+remarkable hint of the possibilities of an "understanding" between
+Germany and the United States on Pacific questions. In February Mr Knox,
+the United States Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, communicated
+in a formal Note to Germany some views on Pacific questions. Commenting
+on this, the _New York Sun_, whose correspondent at Washington is a
+great deal in the confidence of the Government, commented: "The
+significance of Mr Knox's Note as a warning will, it is thought, be
+clearly seen by the other Powers. The fact that the writing and
+publication of Mr Knox's Note are the result of an understanding between
+Germany and the United States will greatly add to the force of the
+document. The other Powers, according to the Washington view, will
+hesitate long before embarking upon the policy of advancing their
+special interests by taking advantage of China's distress when Germany
+and the United States are standing together before the world in
+opposition to any such move."
+
+An "understanding" between Germany and the United States to act together
+on the Asiatic side of the Pacific littoral would have its strategic
+importance in the fact that German power in the Atlantic would help to
+lessen certain risks consequent upon the United States concentrating her
+naval forces in the Pacific.
+
+Another reasonably possible combination should be noted. As one of three
+partners in the Triple Entente, Great Britain has an understanding with
+Russia, which might possibly affect one day the position in the Pacific.
+It is a fact rumoured among European diplomats that France, with the
+idea of maintaining the Triple Entente as a basis of future
+world-action, has urged Russia to build a Pacific Fleet, abandoning
+naval expansion in the Baltic and the Black Sea. With a strong Pacific
+Fleet Russia would certainly be a much more valuable friend to France
+and to Great Britain than at present. But that is "in the air." The
+actual position is that Great Britain and Russia are on such excellent
+terms that they can fish amicably together to-day in the very disturbed
+waters of Persia, and are possible future partners in the Pacific.
+
+Those who consider a British-Russian alliance as impossible, forget the
+history of centuries and remember only that of a generation. Anciently
+the Russian and the Englishman were the best of friends, and Russian aid
+was often of very material use to Great Britain. It was in the eleventh
+century that King Canute established English naval power in the Baltic,
+and thus opened up a great trade with the Russian town of Novgorod. He
+helped the young Russian nation much in so doing. After Canute's death
+this trade with Russia languished for five centuries. But in the
+sixteenth century it was revived, and some centuries later it was said
+of this revival: "The discovery of a maritime intercourse with the Great
+Empire of Russia, and the consequent extension of commerce and
+navigation, is justly regarded by historians as the first dawn of the
+wealth and naval preponderance of England." Some indeed hold that the
+great exploits of the Elizabethan era of British seamanship would not
+have been possible without the maritime supplies--cordage, canvas,
+tallow, spars and salt beef--obtained from Russia.
+
+The benefits of the friendship were not all on one side. In the
+seventeenth century England helped Russia with arms, supplies and troops
+against the Poles. In 1747 England paid Russia to obtain an army of
+37,000 troops which was employed in Holland. Later it was agreed that
+Russia was to keep ready, on the frontiers of Livonia, an army of 47,000
+troops beside forty galleys to be used in the defence of Hanover, for
+England, if needed. At a later date Catherine the Great of Russia was
+appealed to for 20,000 troops for service against the revolted American
+colonies, an appeal which she very wisely rejected. In the wars against
+Napoleon, Great Britain and Russia were joint chiefs of the European
+coalition, and a Russian Fleet was stationed in British waters doing
+good service at the time of the Mutiny of the Nore. A British-Russian
+understanding, in short, has been the rule rather than the exception in
+European politics since the fifteenth century.
+
+An instinct of friendliness between Great Britain and the United States,
+though expressed in no formal bonds, is yet a great force in the
+Pacific. There has been at least one occasion on which an American force
+in the Pacific has gone to the help of a British naval force engaging an
+Asiatic enemy. There are various more or less authentic stories showing
+the instinct of the armed forces of both nations to fraternise.
+Sometimes it is the American, sometimes the British sailor who is
+accused of breaking international law in his bias for the men of his own
+speech and race. It would not be wise to record incidents, which were
+irregular if they ever happened, and which, therefore, had best be
+forgotten. But the fact of the American man-of-war's-men in Apia
+Harbour, Samoa, finding time during their own rush to destruction at the
+hands of a hurricane to cheer a British warship steaming out to safety,
+is authentic, and can be cited without any harm as one instance of the
+instinctive friendship of the two peoples in the Pacific of common blood
+and common language.
+
+FOOTNOTES:
+
+[8] This proposal has now (1912) been revived in the face of the
+disquieting uprise of Chinese power. It is an indication of the stubborn
+resolve of the White populations to prohibit Asiatic immigration.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XV
+
+THE PANAMA CANAL
+
+
+The poetry that is latent in modern science, still awaiting its singer,
+shows in the story of the Panama Canal. Nature fought the great French
+engineer, de Lesseps, on that narrow peninsula, and conquered him. His
+project for uniting the waterways of the Pacific and the Atlantic was
+defeated. But not by hills or distances. Nature's chief means of
+resistance to science was the mobilising of her armies of subtle
+poisoners. The microbes of malaria, yellow fever, of other diseases of
+the tropical marshes, fell upon the canal workers. The mortality was
+frightful. Coolie workers, according to one calculation, had a year's
+probability of life when they took to work on the canal. The
+superintendents and engineers of the White Race went to their tasks as
+soldiers go to a forlorn hope. Finally the forces of disease conquered.
+The French project for cutting a canal through the isthmus of Panama was
+abandoned, having ruined the majority of those who had subscribed to its
+funds, having killed the majority of those who had given to it of their
+labour.
+
+The United States having decided to take over the responsibility for a
+task of such advantage to the world's civilisation, gave to it at the
+outset the benefit of a scientific consideration touched with
+imagination. There were hills to be levelled, ditches to be dug,
+water-courses to be tamed, locks to be built. All that was clear enough.
+But how to secure the safety of the workers? Nature's defenders, though
+fed fat with victory, were still eager, relentless for new victims.
+Science said that to build a canal wholesome working conditions must be
+created: yellow fever and malaria abolished. Science also told how. The
+massacre of the mosquitoes of the isthmus was the first task in
+canal-building.
+
+The mosquitoes, the disseminators of the deadly tropical diseases, were
+attacked in their breeding grounds, and their larvæ easily destroyed by
+putting a film of oil over the surface of the shallow waters in which
+they lived. The oil smothered the life in the larvæ, and they perished
+before they had fully developed. The insect fortunately has no great
+range of flight. Its life is short, and it cannot pass far from its
+birthplace. Herodotus tells how Egyptians avoided mosquitoes by sleeping
+in high towers. The natives of Papua escape them by building their huts
+in the forks of great trees. If the mosquitoes are effectively
+exterminated within a certain area, there is certainty of future
+immunity from them within that area if the marshes, the pools--the
+stagnant waters generally on its boundaries--are thereafter guarded
+during the hatching season against the chance of mosquito larvæ coming
+to winged life. At Suez scientists had found this all out. Science
+conquered the mosquito in Panama as it had been conquered elsewhere, and
+the entrenchments of Nature crumbled away. Henceforth it was a matter of
+rock-cutters, steam shovels and explosives, the A B C of modern
+knowledge. But the mosquito put up a stubborn fight. Driven out of the
+marshes, it found a refuge in the cisterns of houses, even in the
+holy-water founts of churches. Every bit of stagnant water within the
+isthmus area had to be protected against the chance of mosquitoes coming
+to life before the campaign was successful. To-day the isthmus of Panama
+is by no means unhealthy, and the work of canal-cutting progresses so
+well that Mr President Taft was able to announce recently the
+probability of it being opened two years before the due date. That
+brings the canal as a realised fact right into the present.
+
+Some few facts regarding this engineering work. It will cost about
+£70,000,000. The total length of the canal to be made from sea to sea is
+50-1/2 miles, with a maximum width on the bottom of 1000 feet. The land
+excavation is 40-1/2 miles of cutting through rock, sand and clay,
+leaving 10 miles of channel to be deepened to reach the sea at either
+end. Some of the other construction dimensions are these:--
+
+  Locks, usable length                                1,000 feet.
+  Locks, usable width                                   110 feet.
+  Gatun Lake, area                              164 square miles.
+  Gatun Lake, channel depth                        84 to 45 feet.
+  Excavation, estimated total            174,666,594 cubic yards.
+  Concrete, total estimated for canal      5,000,000 cubic yards.
+
+The Gatun is the greatest rock and earth-fill dam ever attempted.
+Forming Gatun Lake by impounding the waters of the Chagres and other
+streams, it will be nearly 1-1/2 miles long, nearly 1/2 mile wide at its
+base, about 400 feet wide at the water surface, about 100 feet wide at
+the top. Its crest, as planned, will be at an elevation of 115 feet
+above mean sea-level, or 30 feet above the normal level of the lake. The
+interior of the dam is being formed of a natural mixture of sand and
+clay placed between two large masses of rock, and miscellaneous material
+obtained from steam-shovel excavation at various points along the canal.
+
+Gatun Lake will cover an area of 164 square miles, with a depth in the
+ship channel varying from 85 to 45 feet. The necessity for this
+artificial lake is because of the rugged hills of Panama. A sea-level
+canal would have been a financial impossibility. By a lock system
+lifting vessels up to Gatun Lake (a height of 85 feet), an immense
+amount of excavation was saved. Incidentally the alarm was allayed of
+that ingenious speculator who foretold that the Gulf Stream would take a
+new path through the Panama Canal and desert the West Coast of Europe,
+on the climate of which it has so profound an influence. When the canal
+was opened England was to revert to her "natural climate"--that of
+Labrador! But since the canal will not be a sea-level one, it cannot of
+course have the slightest effect on ocean currents. The amount of
+Pacific and Atlantic water which will be mutually exchanged by its
+agency each year will be insignificant.
+
+The Panama Canal, when opened, will be exclusively United States
+property; it will be fortified and defended by the United States army
+and navy: and it will probably in time of peace be used to help United
+States trade, and in time of war to help the United States arms. All
+those conclusions are natural, since the United States has found the
+money for the work, and claims under the Monroe doctrine an exclusive
+hegemony of the American continent south of the Canadian border. But
+originally it was thought that the canal would be, in a sense, an
+international one. Later the idea was entertained, and actually
+embodied, in a treaty between Great Britain and the United States that
+whilst "the United States should have the exclusive right of providing
+for the regulation and management of the canal," it should not be
+fortified. But the Treaty of 1902 between Great Britain and the United
+States abrogated that, and provided for the "neutralisation" of the
+canal. It was stipulated that "the United States adopts, as the basis of
+the neutralisation of such ship canal, the following rules,
+substantially as embodied in the Convention of Constantinople, signed
+the 28th October 1888, for the free navigation of the Suez Canal." The
+Rules provide that the canal shall be open to the vessels of commerce
+and war of all nations on terms of equality, so that there shall be no
+discrimination against any nation or its citizens or subjects in respect
+to conditions or charges.
+
+Rule 2 states: "The canal shall never be blockaded, nor shall any right
+of war be exercised, nor any act of hostility be committed within it.
+The United States, however, shall be at liberty to maintain such
+military police along the canal as may be necessary to protect it
+against lawlessness and disorder." The third rule prohibits vessels of
+war of a belligerent from revictualling or taking on stores in the canal
+except so far as may be strictly necessary. Under Rule 4 belligerents
+may not embark or disembark troops, munitions of war, or warlike
+materials, except in case of accidental hindrance in transit, "and in
+that case the transit shall be resumed with all possible despatch.
+Waters adjacent to the canal within three marine miles of either end are
+considered as part of the canal. Vessels of war of a belligerent are not
+permitted to remain in those waters longer than twenty-four hours,
+except in case of distress." The last rule makes the plant,
+establishments, buildings, and the works necessary for the construction,
+maintenance and operation of the canal part of the canal, "and in time
+of war, as in time of peace, they shall enjoy complete immunity from
+attack or injury by belligerents, and from acts calculated to impair
+their usefulness as part of the canal."
+
+But it seems clear that anything, stated or implied, in that Treaty,
+which is calculated to limit the sovereign rights of the United States
+in regard to the canal, will be allowed to be forgotten, for the canal
+has lately, since the question of the control of the Pacific came to the
+front, shown to the United States even more as a military than as an
+industrial necessity. In war time the United States will use the canal
+so that she may mobilise her Fleet in either ocean. Already she has
+passed estimates amounting to £3,000,000 for installing 14-inch guns,
+searchlights, and submarine mines at either entrance. She is also
+establishing a naval base at Cuba to guard the Atlantic entrance, and
+designs yet another base at the Galapagos Islands. At present those
+islands belong to Ecuador, and Ecuador objects to parting with them. But
+it is probable that a way will be found out of that difficulty, for it
+is clear that a strong United States naval base must be established on
+the Pacific as well as the Atlantic threshold of the canal. This base,
+with another at Cuba, would meet the objection I saw raised by an
+American Admiral last year when he said: "In the event of the United
+States being at war with a first-class naval Power, I doubt very much
+whether the canal would be used once hostilities were declared. I assume
+that our opponent would have so disposed his Fleets as to engage ours in
+the Atlantic or Pacific coasts according as circumstances might
+require, and that if we were stupid or careless enough to be caught
+napping with our vessels scattered, no person in authority with any
+sense would risk sending our ships through the canal. Our enemy would
+lie in wait for us and pick off our vessels as they entered or emerged
+from the canal, and every advantage would be on their side and against
+us. This, of course, is on the assumption that the opposing force would
+be at least as powerful as our own. If we had preponderating strength
+conditions would be different, but if the navies were evenly matched it
+would be hazardous in the extreme to use the canal. Nor would the
+fortifications be of much help to us. So long as our ships remained
+within the waters of the canal zone they would, of course, be under the
+protection of the guns of the forts, but as soon as they came on the
+high seas, where they would have to come if they were to be of any use,
+the fortifications would be of little benefit to them, and little injury
+to the enemy."
+
+But when to the actual fortification of the canal is added the provision
+of a strong advanced base near each entrance, this criticism falls to
+the ground. Between those advanced bases would be "American water," and
+on either base a portion of the American Fleet could hold an enemy in
+check until the mobilisation of the whole Fleet.
+
+The world must make up its mind to the fact that the Panama Canal is
+intended by the United States as a means of securing her dominance in
+the Pacific, without leaving her Atlantic coast too bare of protection
+in the event of a great war. Great Britain is the only Power with any
+shadow of a claim to object, and her claim would be founded on treaties
+and arrangements which she has either abrogated or allowed to fall into
+oblivion. Probably it will never be put forward. By a course of
+negotiation, which, for steadiness of purpose and complete concealment
+of that purpose until the right time came for disclosure, might be a
+pattern to the most effective fighting despotism, the American democracy
+has surmounted all obstacles of diplomacy in Panama just as the
+obstacles of disease and distance were surmounted. The reluctance of a
+disorderly sister Republic to grant the territory for the canal was
+overcome by adding a beneficent one to its numerous useless revolutions.
+The jealousy of Europe was first soothed and ultimately defied. It is
+safe to venture the opinion that the reluctance of Ecuador to part with
+the Galapagos will also be overcome. Then from New York to Pekin will
+stretch a series of American naval bases--Cuba, Panama, the Galapagos,
+Hawaii, the Philippines.
+
+The intention, announced on some authority, of the United States to use
+the canal in times of peace as a tariff weapon for the furthering of
+American trade may arouse some protest, but it is difficult to see how
+such a protest can have any effect. The United States will be able to
+reply that it is her canal, bought with her own money, and that it is
+her right, therefore, to do with it as she pleases. In a special message
+to Congress at the end of 1911, Mr Taft urged the necessity for the
+establishment of preferential rates for American shipping passing
+through the Panama Canal. He cited the practice of foreign Governments
+in subsidising their merchant vessels, and declared that an equivalent
+remission of canal tolls in favour of American commerce could not be
+held to be discrimination. The message went on: "Mr Taft does not
+believe that it would be the best policy wholly to remit the tolls for
+domestic commerce for reasons purely fiscal. He desires to make the
+canal sufficiently profitable to meet the debt amassed for its
+construction, and to pay the interest upon it. On the other hand, he
+wishes to encourage American commerce between the Atlantic and the
+Pacific, especially in so far as it will insure the effectiveness of the
+canal as a competitor with the trans-Continental railways." The
+President concluded, therefore, that some experimentation in tolls would
+be necessary before rates could be adjusted properly, or the burden
+which American shipping could equitably bear could be definitely
+ascertained. He hinted at the desirability of entrusting such
+experimentation to the executive rather than to the legislative branch
+of the Government.
+
+In plain language, the United States Government asked for a free hand to
+shape rates for the use of the Panama Canal so that American shipping
+interests could be promoted. The shipping affected would not be merely
+from one American port to another, but between American and foreign
+countries. By the present shipping laws American "coastal trade" i.e.
+trade between one American port and another, even if one of the ports be
+Manila or Honolulu, is closely safeguarded for American bottoms by a
+rigid system of Protection.
+
+A _Daily Telegraph_ correspondent, writing from New York to London at
+the time of Mr President Taft's message, described the trend of American
+public opinion which was shown by the changing of the registry of the
+Red Star liners _Kroonland_ and _Finland_ from Belgian to American.
+"This morning Captain Bradshaw, an American, assumed command, and the
+ceremony of hauling down the foreign flag and hoisting the Stars and
+Stripes took place. The reasons for the change are not announced, but it
+is said that the approaching completion of the Panama Canal has
+something to do with it, and shipping circles here declare that the
+change of registry presages the entry of the _Kroonland_ and her sister
+ship the _Finland_ into the American coast trade between Pacific and
+Atlantic ports, _via_ the Panama Canal. It is expected that a heavy
+subsidy will be given to American steamships by the United States
+Government carrying mails from the Atlantic to the Pacific _via_ Panama,
+and it is generally believed that the owners of the _Kroonland_ and the
+_Finland_ have this in mind."
+
+Clearly the United States, having expended £70,000,000 directly, and a
+great deal indirectly, on the Panama Canal, intends to put it to some
+profitable use, both in war time and in peace time. Naval supremacy in
+the Pacific in war time, industrial supremacy in peace time--those are
+the benefits which she expects to derive.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XVI
+
+THE INDUSTRIAL POSITION IN THE PACIFIC
+
+
+That our civilisation is based on conditions of warring struggle is
+shown by the fact that even matters of production and industry are
+discussed in terms of conflict. The "war of tariffs," the "struggle for
+markets," the "defence of trade," the "protection of our work"--these
+are every-day current phrases; and the problem of the Pacific as it
+presents itself to the statesmen of some countries has little concern
+with navies or armies, but almost exclusively comes as an industrial
+question: "Will our national interests be affected adversely by the
+cheap competition of Asiatic labour, either working on its home
+territory or migrating to our own land, now that the peoples of the
+Pacific are being drawn into the affairs of the world?"
+
+Viewed in the light of abstract logic, it seems the quaintest of
+paradoxes that the very act of production of the comforts and
+necessities of life can be considered, under any circumstances, a
+hostile one. Viewed in the light of the actual living facts of the day,
+it is one of the clearest of truths that a nation and a race may be
+attacked and dragged down through its industries, and that national
+greatness is lost and won in destructive competition in the workshops of
+the world. That industry itself may be turned to bad account is another
+proof that an age, in which there is much talk of peace, is still
+governed in the main by the ideas of warfare. The other day, to Dr Hall
+Edwards, known as the "X-ray Martyr," a grateful nation gave a pension
+of £120 a year after he had had his second hand amputated. He had given
+practically his life ("for you do take my life when you take the means
+whereby I live") to Humanity. As truly as any martyr who died for a
+religious idea or a political principle, or for the rescue of another in
+danger, he had earned the blessing decreed to whomsoever gives up his
+life for his brother. And he was awarded a pension of £120 a year to
+comfort the remainder of his maimed existence! At the same time that Dr
+Hall Edwards was awarded his pension, an engineer thought he had
+discovered a new principle in ballistics. His bold and daring mind
+soared above the puny guns by which a man can hardly dare to hope to
+kill a score of other men at a distance of five miles. He dreamed of an
+electric catapult which "could fire shells at the rate of thousands per
+minute from London to Paris, and even further." The invention would have
+raised the potential homicidal power of man a thousandfold. And the
+inventor asked--and, without a doubt, if he had proved his weapon to be
+what he said, would have got--£1,000,000. The invention did not justify
+at the time the claims made on its behalf. But a new method of
+destruction which did, could command its million pounds with certainty
+from almost any civilised government in the world.
+
+In industry also the greatest fortunes await those who can extend their
+markets by destroying the markets of their rivals, and nations aim at
+increasing their prosperity by driving other nations out of a home or a
+neutral market. There is thus a definitely destructive side to the work
+of production; and some foresee in the future an Asiatic victory over
+the White Races, not effected directly by force of arms but by
+destructive industrial competition which would sap away the foundations
+of White power. How far that danger is real and how far illusory is a
+matter worthy of examination.
+
+At the outset the theoretical possibility of such a development must be
+admitted, though the practical danger will be found to be not serious,
+since it can be met by simple precautions. There are several familiar
+instances in European history of a nation being defeated first in the
+industrial or commercial arena, and then, as an inevitable sequel,
+falling behind in the rivalry of war fleets and armies. In the Pacific
+there may be seen some facts illustrating the process. The Malay
+Peninsula, for instance, is becoming rapidly a Chinese instead of a
+Malay Colony of Great Britain. In the old days the Malays, instinctively
+hostile to the superior industry and superior trading skill of the
+Chinese, kept out Chinese immigrants at the point of the kris. With the
+British overlordship the Chinaman has a fair field, and he peacefully
+penetrates the peninsula, ousting the original inhabitants. In Fiji,
+again, Hindoo coolies have been imported by the sugar-planters to take
+the place of the capricious Fijian worker. Superior industry and
+superior trading skill tell, and the future fate of Fiji is to be an
+Indian colony with White overseers, the Fijian race vanishing.
+
+In both these instances, however, the dispossessed race is a coloured
+one. Could a White Race be ousted from a land in the same way, presuming
+that the White Race is superior and not inferior? Without doubt, yes, if
+the coloured race were allowed ingress, for they would instil into the
+veins of the White community the same subtle poison as would a slave
+class. The people of every land which comes into close contact with the
+Asiatic peoples of the West Pacific littoral know this, and in all the
+White communities of the ocean there is a jealousy and fear of Asiatic
+colonisation. The British colonies in the Pacific, in particular, are
+determined not to admit the Asiatic races within their border. That
+determination was ascribed by a British Colonial Secretary of a past era
+as due to "an industrial reason and a trade union reason, the
+determination that a country having been won by the efforts and the
+struggle of a White Race and rescued from barbarism should not be made
+the ground of competition by men who had not been engaged in that
+struggle." But I prefer to think that the reason lies deeper than the
+fear of cheaper labour. It springs rather from the consciousness that a
+higher race cannot live side by side with a lower race and preserve its
+national type. If the labouring classes have always been in the van of
+anti-Asiatic movements in the White colonies of the Pacific, it is
+because the labouring classes have come first into contact with the
+evils of Asiatic colonisation. It is now some years since I first put
+forward as the real basis of the "White Australia" policy "the instinct
+against race-mixture which Nature has implanted in man to promote her
+work of evolution." That view was quoted by Mr Richard Jebb in his
+valuable _Studies in Colonial Nationalism_, and at once it won some
+acceptance in Great Britain which before had been inclined to be hostile
+to the idea of "White Australia." Subsequently in a paper before the
+Royal Society of Arts Mr Jebb took occasion to say:
+
+"Let me enter a protest against the still popular fallacy that the
+Pacific attitude (_i.e._ in regard to Asiatic labour) is dictated merely
+by the selfish insistence of well-organised and rapacious labour. Two
+circumstances tell decisively against this view. One is that responsible
+local representatives, not dependent upon labour suffrages, invariably
+argue for restriction or exclusion on the higher social and political
+grounds in relation to which the labour question is subsidiary, although
+essential. The second evidence is the modern adherence to the
+restriction movement of nearly all Australasians and an increasing
+number of Canadians, who are not 'in politics' and whose material
+interests in many cases are opposed to the extravagant demands of
+labour. Their insight contrasts favourably, I think, with that perverse
+body of opinion, to be found in all countries, which instinctively
+opposes some policy of enormous national importance lest the immediate
+advantage should accrue to persons not thought to deserve the benefit."
+
+But whilst the industrial reason is not the only reason, nor even the
+chief reason, against Asiatic immigration into a White colony, there is,
+of course, a special objection on the part of the industrial classes to
+such immigration. It is for that reason that there has been in all the
+White settlements of the Pacific a small section, angered by what they
+considered to be the exorbitant demands of the workers, anxious to
+enlist the help of Asiatic labour for the quick development of new
+territories, and in some cases this section has had its way to an
+extent. Some of the Canadian railways were built with the help of
+Chinese labour: and Western Canada has that fact chiefly to thank for
+her coloured race troubles to-day--not so serious as those of the United
+States with the Negroes, but still not negligible altogether. In
+Australia it was at one time proposed to introduce Chinese as workers in
+the pastoral industry: and one monstrous proposal was that Chinese men
+should be mated with Kanaka women in the South Sea Islands to breed
+slave labour for sheep stations and farms in Australia.
+
+Fortunately that was frustrated, as were all other plans of Asiatic
+immigration, and as soon as the Australian colonists had been allowed
+the right to manage their own affairs they made a first use of their
+power by passing stringent laws against Asiatic immigrations. A typical
+Act was that passed in 1888 in New South Wales. By that Act it was
+provided that no ship should bring Chinese immigrants to a greater
+number than one for every 300 tons of cargo measurement (thus a ship of
+3000 tons could not bring more than ten Chinese): and each Chinaman on
+landing had to pay a poll tax of £100. Chinese could not claim
+naturalisation rights and could not engage in gold-mining without
+permission. Since then the Australian Commonwealth has passed a law
+which absolutely prohibits coloured immigration, under the subterfuge of
+an Education Test. New Zealand shares with Australia a policy of
+rigorous exclusion of Asiatics. In Canada the desire lately evinced of
+the Western people to exclude Asiatics altogether has been thwarted, so
+far, by the political predominance of the Eastern states, which have not
+had a first-hand knowledge of the evils following upon Asiatic
+immigration, and have vetoed the attempts of British Columbia to bar out
+the objectionable colonists. But some measures of exclusion have been
+adopted enforcing landing fees on Chinese; and, by treaty, limiting the
+number of Japanese permitted to enter. Further rights of exclusion are
+still sought. In the United States there have been from time to time
+rigorous rules for the exclusion of Chinese, sometimes effected by
+statute, sometimes by agreement with China, and at present Chinese
+immigration is forbidden. The influx of Japanese is also prevented under
+a treaty with Japan.
+
+The industrial position in the Pacific is thus governed largely by the
+fact that in all the White settlements on its borders there are more or
+less complete safeguards against competition by Asiatic labour on the
+White man's territory: and that the tendency is to make these safeguards
+more stringent rather than to relax them. Nothing short of a war in the
+Pacific, giving an Asiatic Power control of its waters, would allow
+Asiatics to become local competitors in the labour markets of those
+White settlements.
+
+But debarred from colonisation the Asiatic has still two other chances
+of competition:
+
+(1) In the home markets of his White rivals in the Pacific;
+
+(2) In such neutral markets as are open to his goods on equal terms with
+theirs.
+
+The first chance can be swept away almost completely by hostile tariffs,
+which it is in the power of any of the White nations to impose. There
+are no Free Trade ideas in the Pacific; the United States, Canada, New
+Zealand, and Australia, all alike protect their home markets against any
+destructive Asiatic competition. If Japanese boots or Chinese steel
+work began to invade the markets of Australia or America to any serious
+extent, the case would be met at once by a hostile tariff revision.
+
+The second chance, open to the Asiatic industrial, that of competing
+with White labour in neutral markets, of cutting into the export trade
+of his rivals, is greater. But even it is being constantly limited by
+the tendency to-day which makes for the linking up of various nations
+into groups for mutual benefit in matters of trade; and which also makes
+for the gradual absorption of independent markets into the sphere of
+influence of one or other group. Some students of tariff subjects
+foresee the day when a nation will rely for export markets on dominions
+actually under its sway and on a strictly limited entrance to foreign
+markets paid for by reciprocal concessions. They foresee the whole world
+divided up into a limited number of "spheres of influence" and no areas
+left for free competition of traders of rival nations. Under such
+circumstances a Power would have free and full entry only into those
+territories actually under its sway. Into other markets its entry would
+be restricted by local national considerations and also by the interests
+of the Imperial system having dominion there.
+
+Present facts certainly point to the dwindling of neutral markets. An
+effort is constantly made by "open-door" agreements to keep new markets
+from being monopolised by any one Power, and great nations have shown
+their appreciation of the importance of keeping some markets "open" by
+intimations of their willingness to fight for the "open door" in some
+quarter or other of the world. Nevertheless doors continue to be shut
+and events continue to trend towards an industrial position matching the
+military position, a world dominated in various spheres by great Powers
+as jealous for their trading rights as for their territorial rights.
+
+Imagining such a position, the Asiatic industrial influence in the
+Pacific would depend strictly on the Asiatic military and naval
+influence. For the present, however, there are many neutral markets, and
+in these, without a doubt, Asiatic production is beginning to oust
+European production to some extent. In the textile industries,
+particularly, Asiatic production, using European machinery, is
+noticeably cheaper than European. Yet, withal, the cheapness of Asiatic
+labour is exaggerated a great deal by many economists. It will be found
+on close examination that whilst the Asiatic wage rate is very low, the
+efficiency rate is low in almost equal proportion. Some effective
+comparisons are possible from the actual experience of Asiatic and other
+coloured labour. In the mining industry, for instance, Chinese labour,
+the most patient, industrious, tractable and efficient form of Asiatic
+labour, does not stand comparison with White industry. In Australia
+Chinese labour has been largely employed in the Northern Territory
+mines: it has not proved economical.[9] The Broken Hill (silver) and
+Kalgoorlie (gold) mines in the same continent, worked exclusively by
+highly-paid White labour, show better results as regards economy of
+working than the Rand (South Africa) gold mines with Kaffir or with
+Chinese coolie labour.
+
+The Chinaman has a great reputation as an agriculturist, and at
+vegetable-growing he seems able to hold his own in competition with
+White labour, for he can follow in that a patient and laborious routine
+with success. In no other form of agriculture does he compete
+successfully with the White farmer. In Australia, for example, where the
+Chinese are still established as market-gardeners, they fail at all
+other sorts of farming, and it is an accepted fact that a Chinese tiller
+will ruin orchard land in a very short time if it comes under his
+control.
+
+In navvying work and in dock-labouring work the Asiatic coolie is not
+really economical. To see four coolies struggling to carry one frozen
+carcase of mutton off a steamer at Durban, with a fifth coolie to
+oversee and help the voluble discussion which usually accompanies coolie
+work; and to contrast the unloading of the same cargo by White labour,
+with one man one carcase the rule, is to understand why low wages do not
+always mean low labour costs.
+
+When any particular problem of production has been reduced to a
+practically mechanical process, when the need of initiative, of thought,
+of keen attention, has been eliminated, Asiatic work can compete
+successfully with White work, though the individual Asiatic worker will
+not, even then, be capable of the same rate of production as the
+individual White worker. But in most domains of human industry the
+Asiatic worker, in spite of his very much lower initial cost, cannot
+compete with the European. Intelligent labour is still the cheapest
+ultimately in most callings, even though its rate of pay be very much
+higher. In practical experience it has often been found that a White
+worker can do more whilst working eight hours a day than whilst working
+ten hours, on account of the superior quality of his work when he has
+better opportunities for rest and recreation. The same considerations
+apply, with greater force, to comparisons between White and "coloured"
+labour.
+
+A fact of importance in the discussion of this point is the effect of
+impatient White labour in encouraging, of patient Asiatic labour in
+discouraging, the invention and use of machinery. The White worker is
+always seeking to simplify his tasks, to find a less onerous way. (He
+discovers, for instance, that the wheel-barrow saves porterage.) Now
+that coloured labour is being banished from cotton-fields and
+sugar-brakes, we hear talk of machines which will pick cotton and trash
+cane-fields.
+
+The industrial position in the Pacific as regards White and "coloured"
+labour is then to-day this: Owing to the efforts, sometimes expressed in
+terms of legal enactment, sometimes of riot and disorder,[2] of the
+British race colonists in the Pacific, the settlements of Australia and
+New Zealand have been kept almost entirely free from Asiatic colonists:
+and the Pacific slopes of the United States and Canada have been but
+little subjected to the racial taint. Asiatic rivalry in the industrial
+sphere must therefore be directed from Asiatic territory. The goods, not
+the labour, must be exported; and the goods can be met with hostile
+tariffs just as the labour is met with Exclusion Acts. In neutral
+markets the products of Asiatic labour can compete with some success
+with the products of the labour of the White communities, but not with
+that overwhelming success which an examination of comparative wage rates
+would suggest. Under "open door" conditions Asiatic peoples could kill
+many White industries in the Pacific; but "open door" conditions could
+only be enforced by a successful war. Such a war, of course, would be
+followed by the sweeping away of immigration restrictions as well as
+goods restrictions.
+
+There is another, the Asiatic, side to the question. Without a doubt the
+Asiatic territories in the Pacific will not continue to offer rich
+prizes for European Powers seeking trade advantages through setting up
+"spheres of influence." Since Japan won recognition as a nation she has
+framed her tariffs to suit herself. In the earlier stages of her
+industrial progress she imported articles, learned to copy them, and
+then imposed a prohibitive tariff on their importation. Various kinds of
+machinery were next copied and their importation stopped. China may be
+expected to follow the same plan. Europe and America may not expect to
+make profits out of exploiting her development. A frank recognition of
+this fact would conduce to peace in the Pacific. If it can be agreed
+that neither as regards her territory nor her markets is China to be
+served up as the prize of successful dominance of the Pacific, one of
+the great promptings to warfare there would disappear. "Asia for the
+Asiatics" is a just policy, and would probably prove a wise one.
+
+In discussing the position of Asiatic labour in the Pacific I have taken
+a view which will dissatisfy some alarmists who cite the fact that the
+wage rate for labour in Western Canada and Australia is about 8s. a day,
+and in China and Japan about 1s. a day; and conclude therefore that the
+Asiatic power in the industrial field is overwhelming. But an
+examination of actual working results rather than theoretical
+conclusions from a limited range of facts will very much modify that
+conclusion. Asiatic labour competition, if allowed liberty of access for
+the worker as well as his work, would undoubtedly drag down the White
+communities of the Pacific. But when the competition is confined to the
+work, and the workman is kept at a distance, it is not at all as serious
+a matter as some have held, and can always be easily met with tariff
+legislation. The most serious blow to European and American
+industrialism that Asia could inflict would be an extension of the
+Japanese protective system to the Asiatic mainland. Yet that we could
+not grumble at; and it would have a compensating advantage in taking
+away the temptation to conflict which the rich prize of a suzerainty
+over the Chinese market now dangles before the industrial world.
+
+There are now one or two industrial facts of less importance to which
+attention may be drawn. The United States, with the completion of the
+Panama Canal, will be the greatest industrial Power of the Pacific. Her
+manufacturing interests are grouped nearer to the east than the west
+coast--partly because of the position of her coalfields,--and the fact
+has hitherto stood in the way of her seaport trade to the Pacific. With
+the opening of the canal her eastern ports will find the route to the
+Pacific reduced greatly, and they will come into closer touch with the
+western side of South America, with Asia, and with the British
+communities in the South Pacific. The perfect organisation of the
+industrial machinery of the United States will give her a position of
+superiority analogous to that which Great Britain had in the Atlantic at
+the dawn of the era of steam and steel.
+
+Western Canada is a possible great industrial factor of the future when
+she learns to utilise the tremendous water power of the Selkirks and
+Rockies. The Canadian people have the ambition to become manufacturers,
+and already they satisfy the home demand for many lines of manufactured
+goods, and have established an export trade in manufactures worth about
+£7,000,000 a year. Australia, too, aspires to be a manufacturing
+country, and though she has not risen yet to the dignity of being an
+exporter of manufactures to any considerable extent, the valuation of
+her production from manufactures (_i.e._ value added in process of
+manufacture) is some £180,000,000 a year.
+
+To sum up: in neutral markets of the Pacific (_i.e._ markets in which
+the goods of all nations can compete on even terms) the Asiatic producer
+(the Japanese and the Indian at present, the Chinese later) will be
+formidable competitors in some lines, notably textiles. But the United
+States should be the leading industrial Power. British competition for
+Pacific markets will come not only from the Mother Country but from the
+Dominions of Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Neutral markets will,
+however, tend to be absorbed in the spheres of influence of rival Powers
+striving for markets as well as for territory. A position approaching
+monopoly of the markets of the Pacific could only be reached as the
+result of a campaign of arms.
+
+FOOTNOTES:
+
+[9] The Northern Territory has been the one part of Australia where
+coloured labour has been obtainable in practically any quantity for
+mining; yet it is the part of Australia where the experience of
+mine-owners has been generally the most disastrous. In 1906 the
+production amounted to £126,000; in the last four years, according to a
+report just furnished by the Chief Warden (1911), it has got down to
+£60,000 a year, and is now shrivelling so fast that the whole industry
+is threatened. "The values of the properties worked in the past are not
+accountable for this depressed condition," says the Chief Warden, "for
+there is every reason for the belief that, if the mineral wealth here
+were exploited, it would compare favourably with that of any of the
+States; but the depression has been caused chiefly through the
+pernicious system of mining that has been carried out in the past, and
+the wasteful expenditure in most instances of the capital forthcoming
+for development."
+
+[2] The Australian Labour organ, _The Worker_, boasted (Oct. 22, 1908):
+"When the law was not sufficient to guard race purity, 'selfish' Labour
+risked its life and liberty to go beyond the law, and to show, as was
+shown at another time in California, that the White Race would not
+tolerate Asiatic colonisation. The Chinese Exclusion Acts in various
+states of Australia were thus the monuments, not of the politicians who
+passed them into law, but of the courage of the workers who were
+willing--as the Eureka miners were willing--to sacrifice everything in
+the cause of a clean, free Australia."
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XVII
+
+SOME STRATEGICAL CONSIDERATIONS
+
+
+Soundly considered, any great strategical problem is a matter of:
+
+1. Naval and military strength; rarely exercised separately but usually
+in combination.
+
+2. Disposition of fortified stations and of bases of supplies.
+
+3. The economic and political conditions of countries concerned.
+
+Such phrases as the "Blue-water School of Strategy" are either
+misleading, inasmuch as they give an incorrect impression of the ideas
+of the people described as belonging to such a school, wrongly
+representing them as considering naval strength, and naval strength
+alone, in a problem of attack and defence; or else they rightly describe
+an altogether incorrect conception of strategy. It will be found on
+examination of any great typical struggle between nations that all three
+matters I have mentioned have usually entered into the final
+determination of the issue; that superior military or naval force has
+often been countered by superior disposition of fortresses, fitting
+stations, and supply bases: that sometimes clear superiority both in
+armaments and disposition of armaments has been countered by greater
+financial and industrial resources and more resolute national character.
+
+On all questions of strategy the Napoleonic wars will provide leading
+cases, for Napoleon brought to his campaigns the full range of
+weapons--military, naval, political, economic; and his early victories
+were won as much by the audaciously new reading he gave to the politics
+of war as to his skill in military strategy and in tactics. It would be
+a fascinating task to imagine a Napoleon setting his mind to a
+consideration of the strategy of the Pacific with all its vast problems.
+But since to give to "strategy" its properly wide definition would be to
+deal again in this chapter with many matters already fully discussed, I
+propose to touch upon it here in a much narrower sense, and suggest
+certain of the more immediate strategical problems, particularly in
+regard to the disposition of fortified stations and bases of supplies.
+
+A glance at the map will show that the British Empire has at the present
+moment an enormous strategical superiority over any other Power in the
+Pacific. That Empire is established on both flanks, in positions with
+strong and safe harbours for fleets, and with great tracts of fertile
+country for recruiting local military forces and providing garrisons.
+(For the time being I put aside political limitations and consider only
+military and naval possibilities unhampered by any restrictions.) On
+the eastern flank of the Pacific Ocean is the Columbian province of
+Canada provided with several fine harbours and allowing of the
+construction of an ideal naval base behind the shelter of Vancouver
+Island. The coastal waters and the coastal rivers alike make possible
+great fisheries, and consequently are good nurseries for seamen. The
+coastal territory has supplies of coal, of timber, of oil. The
+hinterland is rich pastoral, agricultural, and mineral country capable
+of carrying an enormous population and, therefore, of providing a great
+army.
+
+Considered in relation to its neighbours in the Pacific, Canada is
+strategically quite safe except as regards attack from one quarter--the
+United States. A Russian attack upon Canada, for instance, would be
+strategically hopeless (I presume some equality of force), since a
+Russian Fleet would have to cross the Pacific and meet the Canadian
+Fleet where the Canadians chose, or else batter a fortified coast with
+the Canadian Fleet sheltering in some port on a flank waiting a chance
+to attack. The same remark applies to an attack from Japan, from China,
+or from a South American nation. As regards an attack from the United
+States, the position, of course, is different. But even in that case the
+strategical position of Canada would be at least not inferior to that of
+the enemy (apart from superiority of numbers), since that enemy would be
+liable to diverting attacks from Great Britain in the Atlantic and from
+Australia and New Zealand in the Pacific (whose forces would, however,
+have to subdue the Philippines and the Hawaiian Islands before they
+could safely approach the North American coast). An attack by the United
+States on Canada is, however, not within the bounds of present
+probability, and need not be discussed.
+
+The very great importance of Canada to the British position in the
+Pacific cannot, however, be too strongly impressed. Canada holds the
+right flank of the Pacific Ocean, and that flank rests upon the main
+British strength concentrated in the Atlantic. With the loss of Canada
+British mastery in the Pacific would be impossible. To make the
+strategical position of Western Canada (naturally very strong) secure
+there is needed--
+
+(a) A British Pacific Fleet strong enough to meet any enemy in the
+ocean, and so stationed as to be capable of concentrating quickly either
+at a base near Vancouver on the outbreak of hostilities, or in the rear
+of any Fleet attacking the coast.
+
+(b) A greater population in Western Canada with an army (not necessarily
+of Regulars) capable of defending Canadian territory against a landing
+party.
+
+On the west flank of the Pacific Great Britain is established at
+Wei-hai-wei, Hong Kong, the Straits Settlements, Borneo, New Guinea,
+Australia, New Zealand, and various small islands. There are here
+possibilities of enormous strength and several points of grave danger.
+
+At the outset let us consider the continental position of the British
+Empire on the west flank of the Pacific. The occupation of India gives
+to the British Power at once a great position and a great
+responsibility. Occupation of India, presuming the loyalty of the
+majority of the native inhabitants--a presumption which seems to become
+more and more reasonable with the passage of time--gives great material
+resources and command of a vast population of good fighting men. It is
+admitted, however, that these native troops require a certain
+"stiffening" of White troops before taking the field. To provide that
+stiffening is the greatest single task of the British Regular army.
+Strategically, the transfer from Great Britain to India of a large
+number of soldiers to leaven the native forces is not an ideal system.
+The distance between the source of supply and the field of operations is
+so great that in peace it is necessary to have a larger force than would
+be necessary if that distance were reduced, and in war the repairing of
+wastage would be a matter of some difficulty. Further, the British
+soldier, coming from a very different climate, suffers a great deal from
+sickness in India. A more economical and effective system, if that were
+found to be politically possible, would be to strengthen the White
+garrison of India in part from Australia and New Zealand and South
+Africa in case of war.
+
+The defence of India has to be considered in the light of--
+
+(a) An attack from Japan or China based on a Pan-Asiatic movement.
+
+(b) Internal sedition.
+
+(c) An attack from Russia through Persia.
+
+(d) An attack from Germany allied with Turkey by way of the Persian
+Gulf.
+
+The two former are the more immediate dangers. But on the whole, India
+is a far greater source of strength than of weakness. She makes the
+British Empire a great military power on the mainland of Asia, and she
+can contribute materially to the strength of the Pacific naval forces.
+
+Passing from India we find the British Empire in possession of several
+very important strategical positions on or near the coast of Asia,
+Wei-hai-wei and Hong Kong being the advance stations in the north, and
+Singapore (the favoured meeting-place of the Pacific squadron of the
+British Navy) being a well-situated central point. A British Pacific
+Fleet making Singapore its chief base would be in the best position to
+dominate the western littoral of the ocean. South of Singapore the large
+settlements (Australia and New Zealand) are friendly. From the north any
+possible enemy would be best watched, best met, from a Singapore base.
+That base would be central for aid from India and South Africa; and it
+would also be the best point of departure for a Pacific Fleet finding it
+necessary to rendezvous on the American flank of the ocean.
+
+This is a convenient point at which to call attention to one grave
+strategical weakness of the British Empire position in the Pacific--the
+lack of a fortified coaling station near to the centre of the ocean.
+Between Hong Kong and Vancouver there is no fortified coaling station.
+There are rumours, as I write, of the want being met by the
+fortification of Fanning Island, at present the landing-place of the
+Pacific cable between Vancouver and Norfolk Island. Fanning Island is
+not an ideal station either by position or natural advantages. But it
+would be better than nothing.
+
+The strategical position of Australia and New Zealand comes next for
+consideration. Looking to the future, these British Dominions, which can
+be grouped under the one title, Australasia, will probably form the most
+important national element in the South Pacific. Considered at present,
+Australia must be a source of the gravest anxiety strategically, for it
+has within its vast, and everywhere insufficiently populated, area one
+great tract, the Northern Territory, which is practically empty, and
+which contains to-day twice as many Asiatics as Whites. Embracing
+335,000,000 acres, the Northern Territory possesses several splendid
+rivers, in the inland portion a great artesian water supply, and a wide
+diversity of land and of climate. On the uplands is a warm, dry,
+exhilarating area, not very rich in soil, but suitable for pastoral
+occupation, and giving great promise of mineral wealth. On the lowlands,
+with a climate which is sub-tropical to tropical, but, on account of the
+wide spread of the gum tree, is practically nowhere dangerously
+malarial, every agricultural industry is possible, from dairy-farming
+and maize-growing to the cultivation of coffee, sugar, sago, hemp, and
+spices. Almost every expert who has explored the Territory has been
+struck with its possibilities. Mr Dashwood, the former Government
+resident, considered the "area of land suitable for tropical agriculture
+enormous." Mr Sydney Kidman, the great cattle breeder, reported on the
+land about Herbert River as "ideal cattle country." A dozen other
+authorities acclaim the pastoral possibilities of the uplands. The
+probability of vast tin, copper and gold deposits is certified to by
+every geological explorer.
+
+The Northern Territory thus offers a tempting prize for an Asiatic Power
+seeking new outlets for its population. Yet, with all its advantages the
+Territory remains empty. It is known that the Government of Great
+Britain is profoundly anxious for its settlement. It is an open gate
+through which an Asiatic invader may occupy Australia. It is an empty
+land which we do not "effectively occupy," and therefore is, according
+to the theories of international law, open to colonisation by some other
+Power.
+
+Further, the Northern Territory is specially vulnerable, because an
+enemy landing there could find horses, oxen, pasturage, timber, some
+metals, a good soil, plenty of water, any number of easily defensible
+harbours--in short, all the raw material of war. And to prevent a
+landing there is nothing. The local White population is nil,
+practically; the fortifications are nil; the chances of an Australian
+force ever getting there to dislodge an enemy, nil.
+
+An ingenious Australian romance (_The Commonwealth Crisis_, by C. H.
+Kirness), recently published, imagines a "colonising invasion" of
+Australia by Japan. A certain Thomas Burt and his friend, while on a
+hunting trip in the Northern Territory, observe the landing of bodies of
+Japanese troops at Junction Bay. They ride to the south-west to bring
+the news to Port Darwin, the small White settlement in the Territory.
+For some years preceding Japan had contemplated a secret "peaceful
+invasion" of the Northern Territory. The project was planned with great
+care. First a huge military colony was organised at Formosa, and the men
+trained in agriculture. Later, the men were supplied with wives. Three
+months were allowed to elapse, and the men were transported secretly to
+the Northern Territory. Quite 6000 "colonists" had been thus landed
+before "White Australia" was able to take any action. Japan, when
+concealment is no longer possible, officially states through its
+Ambassador in London that, quite without authority from the Mikado, a
+private colonising organisation had settled a body of Japanese in the
+Northern Territory. The Mikado regretted this, and was willing that
+these subjects should disavow their Japanese citizenship and swear
+devotion to the British Flag. A deputation from the Japanese colony in
+the Northern Territory then arrives at Port Darwin to offer its
+allegiance, and to ask that schools should be established in the new
+settlement.
+
+From that point the story develops to the downfall of "White Australia"
+so far as all the north of the Continent is concerned. That romance was,
+though in some of its details fantastic, in its main idea possible. It
+was one of many efforts in warning. Such warnings seem to be taking
+effect now, for the Commonwealth Government is moving at last to
+colonise the Northern Territory, and to build a railway which will bring
+it into touch with the more populous portions of the Continent. A
+scientific expedition was sent recently to investigate the conditions of
+the Territory as regards productiveness and health. The preliminary
+report of that expedition (presented to the Australian Parliament
+October 1911) was generally favourable. It enlarged on the great
+capacity of the Territory for production, and was optimistic about the
+climatic conditions:
+
+"Bearing in mind that the country was visited at the time of year when
+the climate was most suitable for Europeans, the general health was
+remarkably good. The families of the second generation examined showed
+no signs of physical deterioration. There are none of the tropical
+diseases, such as malaria and dysentery, endemic in the settlements;
+and, as long as the necessary hygienic precautions are observed, there
+is no reason to anticipate their appearance.
+
+"There are, at present, men who have spent from three to four decades in
+the Territory, and every one of them compares favourably, both as
+regards physique and energy, with men of similar ages elsewhere.
+
+"The healthiest and strongest are those, both men and women, who take
+regular open-air exercises both in the relatively cool and in the hot
+season.
+
+"Life in the back country, provided the ordinary precautions necessary
+in tropical parts are taken, is decidedly healthy. The summer months are
+undoubtedly trying, but the winter months, when at night-time the
+temperature falls below 40 degrees F., afford recuperation from the
+excessive damp heat of the summer. In addition, the open-air life is in
+itself a great safeguard against enervation and physical deterioration."
+
+That bears out the views of those who are in the best position to know
+the Northern Territory of Australia. Clearly, there are no obstacles to
+its White settlement except such as arise from the apathy and
+carelessness of the governments concerned. But with the strategical
+question of populating the Northern Territory is bound up the other idea
+of populating Australia itself. In 1904, the Government of New South
+Wales, one of the Australian states, alarmed by the fall of the
+birth-rate, appointed a Royal Commission to inquire into the cause. One
+thing made clear by the investigations of the Commission was "that a
+very large section of the population keeps down the birth-rate so far
+as it can, and that the limit of birth-suppression is defined by the
+limit of knowledge on the subject." That was practically the main
+conclusion in the Commissioners' report. It probably did not need a
+Commission of Inquiry to tell the social observer of Australia so much.
+That the decreasing birth-rate in the Commonwealth was not primarily due
+to any physical degeneracy of the people, had long been the conviction
+of all who had had the opportunity and the desire to make the most
+cursory inquiry into the subject. Not lack of capacity, but lack of
+willingness to undertake parental responsibility, was the cause of the
+Australian movement towards sterility. Coming to a conclusion as to
+"why" was thus an easy task in investigating the dwindling birth-rate.
+It was quite clear that the Australian cradle did not fill, mainly
+because the Australian parent preferred to have a very small family.
+
+The evil--it is an evil, for there could be no better, no more welcome
+immigrants to any country than those coming on the wings of the
+stork--does not affect Australia alone, but is observable in almost
+every civilised country. It has successfully defied one of the strongest
+of natural sentiments. Every sane adult is by instinct desirous of being
+a parent. But instinct seems to weaken with civilisation and its
+accompanying artificiality of life. If, on an essentially vital point,
+it is to become so weak as to be ineffective, and is to be replaced by
+no ethical or other motive working towards the same end, then
+civilisation will involve extinction. That is the melancholy conclusion
+which some pessimists even now come to, pointing to the fact that the
+White races of the earth, as a whole, despite the still prolific Slav
+and German, show a tendency to dwindle.
+
+Alarm at such a conclusion may yet prove in itself a remedy. Already
+there is a general agreement that for the community's good it is well
+that there should be a higher birth-rate, but, so far, the general
+agreement lacks particular application. With a further recognition of
+the fate to which artificially-secured sterility points, there may be an
+acuter alarm, which will convert the individual not only to good belief,
+but to good practice. What is wanted is a generally accepted conviction
+that childlessness is either unfortunate or disgraceful, and that
+anything but a moderately large family is a condition calling for
+apology. In Australia that is particularly wanted. There are there--in a
+new country with plenty of room for many millions yet--none of the
+excuses which can be held to justify "small families" in more thickly
+populated lands. It is satisfactory to note that since the Birth-rate
+Commission aroused the public mind on the subject in Australia, there
+has been a distinct betterment of the birth-rate; and there has been an
+end to the old objection to immigration. "Empty Australia" is filling up
+somewhat more rapidly now; but the process is still far too slow, from
+the point of view of strategical safety.
+
+With Australia, including the Northern Territory, populated and
+defended, the strategical position of the British Empire on the Asiatic
+flank of the Pacific Ocean could be organised on a sound basis. An
+Imperial Fleet, contributed to by the Mother Country, by Australia, New
+Zealand, South Africa, India, and the Crown Colonies, having a rallying
+point at Singapore, could hold the Indian Ocean (which is to the Pacific
+what the Mediterranean is to the Atlantic) as a "British lake," and this
+powerful naval force would straddle the centre of the western littoral
+of the ocean, keeping secure the British communities in the south from
+the Asiatic communities in the north, and ready to respond to a call
+from Canada. On the western, as on the eastern flank, there is present
+all the "raw material" for Fleets and armies--great supplies of coal,
+oil, timber, metals, fecund fishing grounds, and enormous areas of
+agricultural and pastoral territory.
+
+When the strategical position of the United States in the Pacific comes
+to be examined, it is found to be for the moment one full of anxiety.
+The Power which may, five years hence, have undisputed hegemony of the
+ocean, holds a difficult position there to-day. The map will show that
+if the United States had had no expansion ideas at all, in the Pacific
+or elsewhere, national safety demanded that she should stretch out her
+arm to take in the Hawaiian Islands. This group, if held by an enemy,
+would be as a sword pointed to the heart of the Pacific States of the
+Republic: but held by the United States it is a buckler against any
+enemy from south or west. A foe approaching the United States Pacific
+coast would inevitably seek to occupy first the Hawaiian Islands and use
+them as a base: and just as surely would not dare to pass those islands
+leaving there an American Fleet. With Honolulu Harbour strongly
+fortified and sheltering a Fleet of any real fighting strength, the
+Pacific coast of the United States is safe from invasion by sea
+(invasion by land from Canada hardly needs to be considered; nor from
+Mexico). At the present time Honolulu is in the process of being
+fortified rather than is fortified: and a powerful American Fleet awaits
+the completion of the Panama Canal before it can enter the Pacific
+without leaving the Atlantic coast of the Republic unduly exposed.
+
+The Philippine Islands, too, are a source of anxiety rather than of
+strength at present. When the Panama Canal has been completed and
+Honolulu fortified, and the Philippines mark the terminal point of an
+American Fleet patrol, their strategical weight will count in the other
+scale, for they will then give the American Power a strong vedette post
+in the waters of a possible enemy. Any attack from the Pacific on the
+United States would in prudence have to be preceded by the reduction of
+the Philippines, or at least their close investment. Yet the temporary
+loss of the group would inflict no great disadvantage on the American
+plan of campaign. Thus the enemy could not afford to leave the
+Philippines alone, and yet would gain no decisive advantage from the
+sacrifices necessary to secure them. In the case of a war in which the
+United States was acting on the offensive against an Asiatic Power, the
+Philippines would be of great value as an advanced base.
+
+The ultimate strategical position of the United States in the Pacific
+cannot be forecasted until there is a clearer indication of how far she
+proposes to carry a policy of overseas expansion. But in the near future
+it can be seen that she will keep on the high seas one great Fleet, its
+central rallying point being probably Cuba, with the Galapagos Islands,
+San Francisco, Honolulu and Manila as the Pacific bases. At present the
+Galapagos belong to Ecuador, and Ecuador does not seem disposed to
+"lease" them to the United States. But that difficulty will probably be
+overcome, since the United States must have an advance guard to protect
+the Panama Canal on the Pacific as well as on the Atlantic side. Viewed
+from a purely defensive standpoint, such a strategical position is sound
+and courageous. If offensive action is contemplated, on the Asiatic
+mainland for example, a military force far greater than that existing
+to-day in the United States must be created.
+
+Japan has consolidated a sound strategical position by the annexation of
+Corea, Russian naval power having ceased to exist in the Pacific. Japan
+now holds the Sea of Japan as her own Narrow Water. The possibility of a
+hostile China making a sea attack can be viewed without dread, for
+naturally and artificially the Japanese naval position is very strong.
+Holding the Sea of Japan as securely as she does, Japan may also
+consider that her land frontier on the mainland is more accessible to
+her bases than to the bases of any possible enemy.
+
+Russia has been harshly criticised for the conception of naval strategy
+which gave her one Fleet in the Baltic, another in the Black Sea, and a
+third in the Pacific. But she was forced by her geographical position
+into a "straggle" policy. It is extremely unlikely that she will now
+adopt the policy, recommended to her in some quarters, of concentrating
+naval strength in the Pacific: though, should the _Entente_ with Great
+Britain develop into an actual triple alliance between Great Britain,
+France and Russia, that concentration is just possible. It would have an
+important effect on the strategical position in the Pacific: but is too
+unlikely a contingency to call for any discussion. The same may be said
+in regard to any possibility of a great development of power in the
+Pacific by Germany or France.
+
+The interest of the strategical position in the Pacific thus centres in
+the rivalry, or friendly emulation, between the United States and the
+British Empire. Without any very clear indications of a conscious
+purpose, the British Empire has blundered into a strategical position
+which is rich in possibilities of strength and has but two glaring
+weaknesses, the absence of a Mid-Pacific fortress and the emptiness of
+the Northern Territory of Australia. With a very clear idea of what she
+is about, the United States has prepared for a thoroughly scientific
+siege of the Pacific, but she has not the same wealth of natural
+material as has the British Empire.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XVIII
+
+THE RIVALS
+
+
+The essential superiority of a White Race over a Coloured Race may
+fairly be accepted as a "first principle" in any discussion of world
+politics. There are numberless facts to be gathered from 2500 years of
+history to justify that faith, and there is lacking as yet any great
+body of evidence to support the other idea, that modern conditions of
+warfare and of industry at last have so changed the factors in human
+greatness that mere numbers and imitative faculty can outweigh the
+superior intellectual capacity and originating genius characteristic of
+the European peoples. Nevertheless it must be admitted that the
+conditions, in warfare and in industry, of life to-day as compared with
+life in past centuries, have increased the value of numbers and of a
+faculty of blind obedience, and have proportionately decreased the
+relative value of individual character. An Asiatic army to-day is
+relatively better fitted to cope with a European army; an Asiatic
+factory is relatively more efficient.
+
+It is necessary, therefore, to call to aid all the reassuring records of
+history if one would keep a serene faith that the future of the Pacific,
+and with it the future of the world, is not destined to be dominated by
+the Asiatic rather than by the European. Japan with her fertile people
+and sterile soil has done so much since she discovered that the test
+imposed on a people by Christian civilisation is based on their powers
+of destruction, that there is good reason for the alarm expressed by
+many thinkers (with the German Emperor as their leader) as to "the
+Yellow Peril." China, too, awaking now after the slumber of centuries
+and grasping at the full equipment of a modern nation, reinforces that
+alarm. It is conceivable that White civilisation may be for a while
+worsted and driven from some of its strongholds by the arms which it has
+taught the Coloured Races to use. "Asia for the Asiatics," may be a
+battle-cry raised in the future not without avail. But in time European
+superiority must again assert itself.
+
+There are many pessimists who foretell the doom of the White Races
+coming from a sterility self-imposed for the sake of better ease. They
+see in every advance of comfort a cause of further weakness, and they
+picture luxury as rapidly corroding the supports of our society. But it
+is comforting to recall that every age has had the same gloomy critics,
+and the Golden Age has always been represented in the past by the
+pessimists of the present. For myself, I am daring enough to think that
+the White Races of to-day are neither enervated nor decadent: that in
+physique, in good health and in sense of public duty they are improving
+rather than deteriorating; and that the Europe of next century will be
+more happy, more vigorous and more sane than the Europe of to-day. There
+_was_ a time for the joy of pessimists, but it is a past time, that
+dismal past century when the industrial epoch rushed on man all
+unawares, when the clattering machine came to sweep away handicrafts,
+and the new economic idea of human beings as "hands" affected
+poisonously all social relations. It was as though a cumbrous wain,
+well-built for its slow and sedate rumbling, had suddenly been hitched
+to a rushing steam engine. There were disturbances, clatterings,
+groanings, and creakings. The period of adjustment was a painful one.
+But it is passing. Meliorism is the justifiable faith of the future.
+
+The future of the Pacific, I hold then, is with the White Races. At the
+best, the Asiatic can hope to hold his own continent in security. Japan
+had the chance of securing a temporary dominance after the war with
+Russia, and at one time was said to have been on the verge of a struggle
+with the United States, as an assertion of that dominance. But the cloud
+passed over. With the opening of the Panama Canal, now a matter only of
+months, the opportunity of Japan will have finally passed. With the
+gradual re-establishment of British naval power in the ocean, a
+re-establishment which will come through the agency of Australia,
+Canada, and New Zealand, if not through the Home Country, and which will
+be "anti-Asiatic" in purpose, a further veto will be put on any
+aggressive ambitions on the part of an Asiatic Power. The statesmen of
+Japan, indeed, seem to recognise that she has had her day of greatest
+power, and must be content for the future to be tolerated in her present
+position as one of the "Powers" forming the great council of the
+foremost nations. But in considering Japan, allowance must always be
+made for the danger of the people getting out of the hands of the
+oligarchy which rules them. The Japanese people, fed fat on praise of
+their own prowess, may one day force a mad course on statesmen asked to
+choose between civil and foreign war. Such a war would be doomed to
+failure for financial if for no other reasons. But it might leave a deep
+stain of blood on the Pacific.
+
+China--a Federal Republic, and rid of the Manchus if present appearances
+(1912) are not belied--will have no aggressive ambitions for some years
+to come. She may insist, and rightly insist, on more honourable
+treatment from foreign nations. But it is not likely that she will set
+Fleets ranging over the Pacific in search of conquests. By the time that
+China has come to a warlike mood--if she does ever come--the White Races
+will be fully equipped for any struggle. The greatest Asiatic peril, so
+far as warlike forces are concerned, is of a Japanese-Chinese alliance:
+and the chance of that is slight, for the two peoples are not
+sympathetic. It will be noted that the very first official paper of the
+nascent Chinese Republic is a letter of complaint to the Japanese
+Government.
+
+If it is agreed that the Pacific will fall, as the Mediterranean did, as
+the Atlantic did, to the rule of the White Man, the next step is to
+consider, which people? There is, in addition to much evidence, the
+temptation of race-pride to suggest that of all the European peoples the
+Anglo-Celtic (controlling the British Empire and the United States) is
+inherently the best equipped for world dominance. But that is not nearly
+so sure as is the superiority of the White over the Coloured Races. The
+Latin peoples--Italians, Portuguese, Spaniards--have in their day won to
+lofty greatness. The French--in the main Latin, but with a large element
+of Celtic and some element of Teutonic blood--were supreme in the world
+for many generations, and are not exhausted to-day. There is not an
+incident of Anglo-Saxon history; either of fighting against tremendous
+odds and winning a victory which the stars in their courses seemed to
+forbid; or of making disaster glorious by a Spartan death; or of pushing
+out on some frail plank into an unknown sea--which cannot be matched by
+some incident equally noble from the records of the Latin peoples or the
+French people. The Teutons are only now making their bid for mastery:
+the Slavs may have a great future. The future dominance of Europe may be
+for any one of the European peoples.
+
+But the position in the Pacific can be simplified for the present by
+the elimination of all the European Powers but two. Spain and Portugal
+have had their day there, and have passed away. Neither France, Germany,
+Austria nor Italy can venture any great force from Europe. Nor is any
+one of them strongly established in the Pacific. Great Britain would be
+content with the Atlantic but that her overseas Empire gives her duties
+and advantages in the new ocean. The Pacific possessions of the British
+Empire were unsought. But they will be held. The other European Power in
+the Pacific is Russia, which has been checked but not destroyed there.
+That the supremacy of Europe--at present held, so far as any enterprises
+beyond its seas are concerned, by Great Britain--may pass to other hands
+is not impossible; and that would affect, of course, the position in the
+Pacific. Speculation on that point, however, is outside the scope of
+this book, which has attempted to deal with the Pacific conditions of
+the present and immediate future.
+
+On the facts there must be a further elimination of European Powers in
+the Pacific, since Russia has no naval forces there and no design of
+creating such forces. There is at present a natural bewilderment in the
+Russian mind as a consequence of the recent war with Japan. That
+struggle destroyed her power in Europe as well as in Asia, and the
+European balance must be restored first. During the next five
+years--which will be the critical years--Russia will not count in the
+Pacific except as the useful ally of some powerful naval nation--either
+of Japan, the United States or Great Britain.
+
+Great Britain is thus left as the sole European Power capable of
+independent effort in the Pacific. Clearly the rivalry for the dominance
+of the ocean lies between her and the United States. To discuss that
+rivalry is to discuss the real problem of the Pacific. It may be done
+frankly, I trust, without raising suggestions of unfriendliness. A frank
+discussion of the problem, carried out on both sides of the Atlantic,
+would be of the greatest value to civilisation. For the position seems
+to be that both Powers are preparing to capture the Pacific; that
+neither Power can hold it against the other; and that a peaceful
+settlement can only be founded on complete mutual understanding.
+
+It is true that if the United States decides "to play a lone hand," she
+may win through if all the circumstances are favourable, for she seems
+destined to control the resources of all America. It is likely that
+within this decade the United States Flag will fly (either as that of
+the actually governing or the suzerain Power) over all the territory
+south of the Canadian border to the southern bank of the Panama Canal.
+Intervention has been threatened once already in Mexico. With any
+further disorder it may be carried into effect. The United States cannot
+afford to allow the chance of a disorderly force marching down to
+destroy £70,000,000 worth of United States property. Central America
+has been marked down for a process of peaceful absorption. The treaty
+with Honduras (a similar one exists with Nicaragua) shows the method of
+this absorption. It provides:
+
+"The Government of Honduras undertakes to make and negotiate a contract
+providing for the refunding of its present internal and external debt
+and the adjustment and settlement of unliquidated claims for the placing
+of its finances upon a sound and stable basis, and for the future
+development of the natural and economic resources of that country. The
+Governments of the United States and Honduras will take due note of all
+the provisions of the said contract when made, and will consult, in
+order that all the benefits to Honduras and the security of the loan may
+at the same time be assured.
+
+"The loan, which shall be made pursuant to the above undertaking, shall
+be secured upon the customs of Honduras, and the Government of Honduras
+agrees not to alter the import or export Customs duties, or other
+charges affecting the entry, exit, or transit of goods, during the
+existence of the loan under the said contract, without consultation and
+agreement with the Government of the United States.
+
+"A full and detailed statement of the operations under this contract
+shall be submitted by the fiscal agent of the loan to the Department of
+State of the United States and to the Minister of Finance of the
+Government of Honduras at the expiration of each twelve months, and at
+such other times as may be requested by either of the two Governments.
+
+"The Government of Honduras, so long as the loan exists, will appoint
+from a list of names to be presented to it by the fiscal agent of the
+loan and approved by the President of the United States of America, a
+collector-general of Customs, who shall administer the Customs in
+accordance with the contract securing said loan, and will give this
+official full protection in the exercise of his functions. The
+Government of the United States will in turn afford such protection as
+it may find necessary."
+
+Under the terms of these loan conventions the independence of Honduras
+and Nicaragua dwindles to nothing. The purpose of the arrangements was
+stated by Mr President Taft in his message to Congress: "Now that the
+linking of the oceans by the Isthmian Canal is nearing assured
+realisation, the conservation of stable conditions in the adjacent
+countries becomes a still more pressing need, and all that the United
+States has hitherto done in that direction is amply justified, if there
+were no other consideration, by the one fact that this country has
+acquired such vast interest in that quarter as to demand every effort on
+its part to make solid and durable the tranquillity of the neighbouring
+countries."
+
+"Solid and durable tranquillity" means in effect United States control.
+From the control of Central America to that of South America is a big
+step, but not an impossible one; and the United States already claims
+some form of suzerainty over the Latin-American peoples there. It
+insists upon giving them protection against Europe, whether they wish it
+or not, and under certain circumstances would exercise a right of veto
+over their foreign policy. The United States also is engaged in
+promoting through the Pan-American Bureau a policy of American
+continental unity. This Bureau was the outcome of the Pan-American
+Conference convened by Mr Blaine in 1890. The general object of the
+Bureau "is not only to develop friendship, commerce, and trade, but to
+promote close relations, better acquaintance, and more intimate
+association along economic, intellectual, educational and social lines,
+as well as political and material lines, among the American Republics."
+"The Bureau for commercial purposes," its Director, Mr Barrett, reports,
+"is in touch in both North and South America, on the one hand with
+manufacturers, merchants, exporters, and importers, doing all it can to
+facilitate the exchange and building up of trade among the American
+nations, and on the other hand with University and College Presidents,
+professors, and students, writers, newspaper men, scientists, and
+travellers, providing them with a large variety of information that will
+increase their interests in the different American nations." The Bureau
+publishes handbooks and reports on the various countries containing
+information relating to their commercial development and tariffs.
+
+There will be held this year (1912) at Washington a Pan-American
+Conference on trade, organised by the Bureau, "to awaken the commercial
+organisations, representative business men, and the general public of
+both North and South America to an appreciation of the possibilities of
+Pan-American commerce, and the necessity of preparing for the opening of
+the Panama Canal." "The Conference," says the official announcement,
+"will have a novel feature in that it will consider the exchange of
+trade--imports as well as exports--and the opportunities not only of the
+United States to extend the sale of her products in Latin America, but
+of Latin America to sell her products in the United States, for only
+upon the basis of reciprocal exchange of trade can a permanent large
+commerce and lasting good relations be built up between the United
+States and her twenty sister American Republics. Heretofore all
+discussions and meetings have considered only the export field, with a
+corresponding unfortunate effect on public opinion in Latin America, and
+her attitude towards the efforts of the United States to increase her
+commerce with that important part of the world. Another special feature
+will be a careful consideration, from the standpoint of the business
+interests of all the American countries interested in the Panama Canal,
+of what should be done to get ready for greater exchange of trade
+through that waterway, and to gain practical advantages to their
+commerce from the day it is opened."
+
+The policy of Pan-America may one day come into effect, and the United
+States Power command the resources of all America except Canada. (That
+Canada will ever willingly come under her suzerainty seems now little
+likely.) But from Cape Horn to the Gulf of St Lawrence is an Empire of
+mighty resources, great enough to sate the ambition of any Power, but
+yet not forbidding the ambition to make it the base for further
+conquests.
+
+Yet, withal, the United States cannot rely confidently on an unchecked
+career of prosperity. She may have her troubles. Indeed, she has her
+troubles. No American of to-day professes to know a solution of the
+negro problem. "There are two ways out of the difficulty," said one
+American grimly; "to kill all the negroes, and to deport all the
+negroes; and neither is humanly possible." To allow them to be absorbed
+by intermarriage with the White population is unthinkable, and would, in
+a generation or two, drag the United States down to the level of a
+larger Hayti. A settlement of the black question will one day, sooner or
+later, absorb the American mind for some time to the exclusion of all
+else. Neither the acquisition of territories with great coloured
+populations, nor the extension of suzerainty over half-breed countries
+will do anything to simplify that problem.
+
+There is also a possible social difficulty to be faced by the United
+States. The present differences between rich and poor are too extreme to
+be safe. Too many of the rich despise the poor on the ground that to be
+poor is to be a failure: too many of the poor hate the rich with a
+wolfish hatred as successful bandits. The quick growth of material
+prosperity has cloaked over this class feeling. When there were good
+crumbs for everybody the too-great wealth of the rich was not so
+obvious. But the time comes when the United States is no longer a Tom
+Tiddler's ground where everybody can pick up something: and the rivalry
+between those who have too much and those who have too little begins to
+show nakedly.
+
+In short, the United States, justified as she is to keep a superb
+confidence in her own resources, might find a policy of hostile rivalry
+to the British Power in the Pacific an impossible one to carry through,
+for it would not be wise statesmanship on her part to presume that her
+future history will be, at home and abroad, an uninterrupted course of
+prosperity.
+
+There is no need to presume that hostile rivalry. On the other hand,
+there is no wisdom in following blindly a policy of drift which may lead
+to that rivalry. The question of the future of the Pacific narrows down
+to this: Will two great Powers, sprung from the same race, take
+advantage of a common tongue to talk out frankly, honestly, their aims
+and purpose so that they may arrive at a common understanding?
+
+There are some obstacles to such an understanding. The first is American
+diplomacy, which, whilst truthful to the point of brusqueness, is
+strangely reluctant to avow its real objects, for the reason, I think,
+that it often acts without admitting even its own mind into confidence.
+The boy who makes his way to the unguarded apple orchard does not admit
+to himself that he is after apples. He professes to like the scenery in
+that direction. American diplomacy acts in the same way. It would have
+been impossible, for instance, to have obtained from the American
+Government ten years ago a confidential declaration, in a friendly way,
+of the Pacific policy which is now announced. Yet it should have been
+quite plain to the American mind after the seizure of the Philippines
+and the fortification of Hawaii, if the American mind would have
+consented to examine into itself. Now, it is not possible for two great
+nations to preserve a mutual friendship without a mutual confidence.
+
+Another obstacle to a perfect British-American understanding is that
+British diplomacy is always at its worst in dealing with the United
+States. That combination of firmness with politeness which is used in
+European relations is abandoned for a policy of gush when dealing with
+America. Claims for a particular consideration founded on relationship
+are made which are sometimes a little resented, sometimes a little
+ridiculed. British diplomats do not "keep their dignity" well in
+negotiating with the United States. They are so obsessed with the
+feeling that to drift into bad terms with the great English-speaking
+Republic would be calamitous, that they give a suspicion sometimes of
+truckling. There would be a better feeling if relationship were not so
+much insisted upon and reliance were placed instead on a mutual respect
+for power and on a community of purpose in most quarters of the globe.
+Meekness does not sit well on the British manner, and often the
+American's view of "relationship talk" is that it is intended as a
+prelude to inducing him into a bad bargain.
+
+It should always be the aim of the leaders of American and British
+public opinion to encourage friendship between the two nations. But it
+is not wise to be for ever insisting that, because of their blood
+relationship, a serious quarrel between them is impossible. True, a
+struggle between Great Britain and the United States would have all the
+horrors of a civil war, but even civil wars happen; and it is human
+nature that relatives should sometimes let bickering, not intended at
+the outset to be serious, drift into open rupture. The sentimental talk
+founded, as it were, on the idea that the United States and Great
+Britain are married and must hold together "for better or for worse," is
+dangerous.
+
+When Pacific questions come up for discussion in the near future, there
+is likely, however, to be a modification in the old British methods of
+diplomacy, for the Dominions of Canada, Australia and New Zealand must
+be allowed to take part in the discussions; and Australia and New
+Zealand have a certain impatient Imperialism on which I have remarked
+before. Their attitude in foreign affairs appears as almost truculent to
+European ideas of diplomacy. Probably Canada will show the same spirit,
+for it is the spirit of youth in nationhood, with its superb
+self-confidence still lacking the sobering effects of experience.
+
+It is a mistaken idea, though an idea generally held in some quarters,
+that the British Dominions in the Pacific are more sympathetic with
+American than with British ideas. The contrary is the case. Where there
+are points of difference between the Anglo-Celtic race in Great Britain
+and in the United States, the British Dominions lean to their Mother
+Country. Their progressive democracy is better satisfied with the
+conditions under the shadow of a Throne, which has nothing of tyranny
+and little of privilege, than with those offering under a Republic whose
+freedom is tempered a good deal with plutocratic influences. "To be
+exactly opposite to everything which is known as 'American'--that is the
+ideal of Australian democracy," said a responsible statesman of the
+Commonwealth. The statement was put strongly so as to arrest attention;
+but it contained a germ of truth. In spite of the theoretical
+Republicanism of a majority of the Australian people, their practical
+decisions would almost always favour the British rather than the
+American political system.
+
+The fervid welcome recently given in the Pacific to the Fleet of
+American battleships which circumnavigated the world, gave rise to some
+misconceptions. American press correspondents with the Fleet generally
+formed the idea that Australia in particular was ready to fall into the
+arms of the United States at the first advance. But that welcome was in
+part simply the expression of a warm feeling of hospitality for visitors
+of a kindred race. For the rest, it was an expression of gratitude for
+the reassurance which the American Fleet gave that a White Race was
+determined to be a Power in the Pacific. Great Britain had just renewed
+her treaty with Japan, which had defeated Russia, and this treaty left
+the Japanese Fleet as the guardian of the British interests in the
+ocean. To the Australian mind such guardianship was worse than useless.
+If it were ever a question between accepting the guardianship of the
+United States--with all its implied obligations--and modifying their
+anti-Asiatic policy, Australia, Canada and New Zealand would, without a
+doubt, accept the first alternative. But they would very much prefer
+that the British Power should be the guardian of their safety,
+especially a British Power largely supplied and controlled by
+themselves.
+
+It is towards that development that events now move. It has its danger
+in that there may be a growing brusqueness in British negotiations in
+the Pacific. The Dominions of Canada, Australia and New Zealand (I
+include Canada because all the indications are that she will now fall
+into line with the other Pacific British nations), paying so much to the
+piper, will want to call the tune: and whereas British diplomacy with
+the United States is to-day a shade too deferential, Australasian and
+Canadian diplomacy possibly will fall into the other error. Experience,
+of course, will cure the impatience of youth in time. But it is
+important that at the outset there should be no occasions for bad
+feeling. A friendly informal conference between Great Britain, the
+United States, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, ushering in the
+opening of the Panama Canal, would provide an opportunity for beginning
+the frank discussion which is needed.
+
+The position in the Pacific confronting such a conference would be this:
+that friendly co-operation between the United States and Great Britain
+would give to the Anglo-Saxon race the mastery of the world's greatest
+ocean, laying for ever the fear of the Yellow Peril, securing for the
+world that its greatest readjustment of the balance of power shall be
+effected in peace: but that rivalry between these two kindred nations
+may cause the gravest evils, and possibly irreparable disasters.
+
+
+THE END
+
+
+
+
+INDEX
+
+
+ Acadia (_see_ Nova Scotia).
+
+ Adriatic, the, 41.
+
+ Ainus, the, 35, 138.
+
+ Albuquerque takes Malacca, 96.
+
+ Alexander the Great, 21, 103.
+
+ Alliance between Great Britain and Japan, 39, 42, 199 _et seq._
+
+ Amber, the Arabian search for, 22.
+
+ America: a "New France" in, 165.
+
+ American bureau, the, 272, 273.
+   conferences, 272, 273.
+   diplomacy, 224, 275, 276.
+   --educated Chinese, 53, 54.
+   Empire, growth of, 69.
+   Imperial system, an, 12, 161, 164.
+   Imperialism and the Filipinos, 82.
+   national temper, the, 67.
+   naval bases, 224.
+   "relationship talk," 277.
+   War of Independence, the, 86.
+
+ Andes, the, 151.
+
+ Anglo-Celtic alliance, an, 14, 15.
+   race and the British Dominions, 278.
+   race best equipped for world dominance, 267.
+
+ Anglo-Saxon, the Elizabethan, 69, 148.
+
+ Anson, Admiral, 91.
+
+ Apia Harbour, Samoa, 215.
+
+ Arabians search for amber, 22.
+
+ Arabs and the Baltic, 22.
+
+ Argentine Republic, the, 150, 160, 162.
+   army of, 197.
+   navy of, 183.
+
+ Armies of the Pacific:
+   Argentine, 197.
+   Australian, 191.
+   Bolivian, 197.
+   Brazilian, 197.
+   British, 191.
+   Canadian, 191.
+   Chinese, 190.
+   Colombian, 198.
+   Ecuador, 198.
+   Indian, 191.
+   Japanese, 189.
+   Mexican, 197.
+   New Zealand, 191.
+   Paraguay, 198.
+   Russian, 186, 187.
+   South American, 198.
+   United States, 190.
+
+ Aryans, the, 21.
+
+ _Asahi Shimbun_, the, 46.
+
+ Asia, arrogance of, 40.
+   for the Asiatics, 241, 264.
+
+ Asiatic colonisation, White fear of, 231.
+   immigration, 234.
+   labour, 228.
+   labour, cheapness exaggerated, 237.
+   peril, the greatest, 266.
+   populations, natural checks, 58.
+     European influence on, 59.
+   trade competition, 235, 236, 237.
+
+ Asiatics as navvies and dock-labourers, 239.
+   preventive medicine and, 59.
+   cannot compete with Europeans, 239.
+
+ Atlantic, the, and the White Man, 267.
+   German power in, 212.
+
+ Australasia, 100.
+
+ Australasia and the White Race, 101.
+
+ Australasian Empire, an, 126.
+
+ Australia, 3, 11, 13, 21, 93, 94, 109, 248, 250, 265, 277.
+   a "colonising invasion" of, by Japan, 253.
+   and Imperial naval co-operation, 116.
+   annexed by Capt. Cook, 94-95, 101, 123.
+   anti-Asiatic policy of, 106, 279.
+   army of, 191.
+   Chinese poll-tax in, 234.
+   coloured labour in the mines, 238 (footnote).
+   Defence Act, the, 109.
+   early settlers, 102.
+   first Fleet sails for, 95.
+   food production possibilities of, 119.
+   impatient Imperialism of, 277.
+   Imperialism of, 110.
+   in 1901 prohibits coloured immigration, 202.
+   keeping the Asiatic out of, 106.
+   laws against Asiatic immigration, 234.
+   Military College of, 192, 193.
+     official conditions, 193.
+     cadets, 193.
+     gambling and cigarette-smoking prohibited, 194.
+   nation-building material, 105.
+   Northern Territory of, 138, 238 (footnote), 251, 252, 253, 254, 262.
+   populating, 255.
+   potentially the greatest asset of the British race, 118.
+   prayers for rain, 106.
+   prolific, 102.
+   strategical position of, 251.
+   universal training for military service, 108.
+   unvisited by Asiatics in the early days of the Pacific, 58.
+   William Dampier in, 104.
+
+ Australian aboriginal race, the, 137, 138.
+   birth-rate, 256, 257.
+   Bushman, the, 121.
+     as material for a great warrior nation, 122.
+   colonists aggressively Imperial, 95.
+   democracy, ideal of, 278.
+   Education Test, 203, 234.
+   Fleet unit, the, 113 _et seq._
+   Pacific Fleet, the, 181.
+   sternly resolute, 106.
+
+ Australians, warlike spirit of, 108.
+   aggressive patriotism of, 117.
+
+ Aztecs, the, 156.
+
+
+ "Balance of power," 17.
+
+ Balboa of Castile, 2, 153.
+
+ Baltic, the, 22.
+
+ Banana tree, the, 145.
+
+ Barbary States, U.S.A., war with, 70, 72.
+
+ Barrett, Mr, 272.
+
+ Bible, the, 148.
+
+ Bingham, Hiram, at Honolulu, 77.
+
+ Blaine, Mr, 272.
+
+ "Blue-water School of Strategy," 245.
+
+ Boccaccio's story of a Christian, 53.
+
+ Bolivia, 151, 160.
+   army of, 197.
+
+ Bombay, rats in, 61.
+
+ Borneo, 248.
+
+ Boston, 77.
+
+ Botany Bay, 104.
+
+ Boxer outbreak of 1900, the, 50, 59.
+
+ Brazil, army of, 197.
+   Republic of, 160, 162.
+
+ Britain, military forces, 191.
+   Roman invasion of, 87.
+
+ British Admiralty and Imperial naval co-operation, 112.
+   and Japanese, analogy between, 35.
+   Columbia and Asiatic immigration, 45, 234.
+   Continent in the Pacific, the, 100 _et seq._
+   diplomacy in Pacific, 276, 279.
+     modification of, in the future, 277.
+   Dominions, their loyalty to the Mother Country, 277.
+   Empire, one grave strategical weakness, 251.
+     foundation of, 76.
+     strategical position of, 258.
+     the possibilities of, 129.
+     White population of, 129.
+   Flag in the South Pacific, the 135.
+   foreign policy, 17.
+   garrisons in India, 191.
+   Government recognise Maoris as a nation, 125.
+   Imperial expansion, 17.
+   intentions on Tibet, 211.
+   --Japanese Alliance, renewal of, 208.
+     Trade Treaty, right of British overseas Dominions regarding Japanese
+       immigration, 207.
+     Treaties: of 1902, 199.
+       of 1905, 204, 209.
+       of 1911, 199, 206, 207-208.
+     Treaty, the, 279.
+       provisions of, 199-201, 204-206.
+     War against United States, contingency abolished, 208.
+   maritime intercourse with Russia, 214.
+   naval power in the Pacific, re-establishment of, 265.
+   Navy: effective tonnage, 185.
+   Pacific Fleet, a, 181.
+   Pacific naval strength, 14.
+   people, the, Empire-making of, 87.
+   people, the racial origin of, 87.
+   --Russian Alliance not impossible, 213.
+   trade with Latin America, 162, 163.
+   treaty with Holland, 96.
+
+ Britons, Romanised, 88.
+
+ "Brown Bess" musket, the, 197.
+
+ "Bush," the, in Australia, 121.
+   in New Zealand, 120.
+
+ Byzantine culture and the Southern Slavs, 22.
+   Empire, the Greek Church and the, 23.
+
+ Byzantium and the Normans, 22.
+
+
+ California, annexation of, 73.
+   Japanese in, 45.
+
+ Canada, 2, 11, 13, 259, 265, 277.
+   and the Japanese immigrants, 202.
+   and the Pacific, 165 _et seq._
+   anti-Asiatic policy of, 279.
+   French in, 165, 167, 168.
+   importance of, to British position in the Pacific, 248.
+   landing fees on Chinese, 234.
+   militia forces of, 191, 194.
+   naval plans, 183.
+   organisation of militia, 195.
+   originally a French colony, 165.
+   policy of Colonel Hughes, Defence Minister, 174.
+   political tendencies, 170.
+   proposed Reciprocity Treaty with United States, 174.
+   race troubles in, 233.
+   religion of, 168.
+   rifle factory, 194.
+   strategical position of, 247.
+   the coastal waters of, 169.
+   the new spirit regarding Defence, 194.
+   universal military training and, 196.
+   water power of, 243.
+
+ Canadian Defence League, The, 195.
+   feudal system, 167.
+   Fleet unit, Sir Wilfrid Laurier on, 172.
+   General Election of 1911, the, 171, 195.
+   militia, the, 171.
+   naval policy, 172.
+   Pacific provinces and Japanese immigration, 202 (and footnote).
+   Provinces, federation of, 73.
+   protests against, 73, 74.
+   railways and Chinese labour, 233.
+
+ Cannibalism, 140.
+
+ Canute, King, 213.
+
+ Carausius, 88.
+
+ Caribbean naval base for United States, 179.
+   Sea, Spanish power destroyed, 82.
+   the United States and the, 67.
+
+ Cartier, Jacques, 166.
+
+ Castile, the King of, 2.
+
+ Catherine the Great, 189, 214.
+
+ Caxamalco, Pizarro at, 153.
+
+ Chagres, the, 219.
+
+ Champlain, 166.
+
+ Chang Chih-tung, 51, 52.
+
+ Chili, 2, 10, 150, 151.
+   army of, 197.
+   navy of, 183.
+   Republic of, 160, 163.
+
+ China, 3, 25, 266.
+   a new, 56.
+   ancestor worship in, 55.
+   and the German Emperor, 10.
+   and the teeming millions of Asia, 47.
+   and the White Race, 56.
+   army of, 190.
+   Chang Chih-tung's suggestions for reform, 51, 52.
+   Christian missionaries in, 50.
+   Confucianism in, 48, 49, 56 (footnote), 57.
+   deprived of Malthusian checks, 57, 65.
+   first European ambassadors to, 40.
+   infanticide in, 57.
+   Jesuit missionaries in, 50.
+   legendary history of, 48.
+   militancy in, 64.
+   Mohammedans in, 48.
+   nation-birth of, 8.
+   navy of, 178.
+   not a Power in world-politics generally, 34.
+   persecution of missionaries, 50.
+   population of, 8, 63.
+   Republic of, 54.
+     a united, 55.
+   Republicanism in, 54, 55.
+     Mr Kwei Chih on, 55 (footnote).
+   Revolution in, 8.
+   suggested alliance with France, 48.
+   Taoism in, 49.
+   territorial integrity of, 200, 201, 202, 204, 209, 210, 211.
+   the Manchu dynasty, 50, 55 (footnote).
+   the Ming dynasty, 50.
+   the Mongol dynasty, 49.
+   the power of, in the Pacific, 9.
+   the Reform movement in, 51 _et seq._
+
+ Chinaman, the, arrogance of, 48.
+   courage of the, 47.
+   superior to Japanese, 47.
+
+ China's attitude regarding Pacific issues, 65.
+   indemnity to Japan, 26.
+
+ Chinese ancestor worship, 55.
+
+ Chinese, artistry of the, 34.
+   as agriculturists, 238.
+   as miners, 237.
+   contempt of, by Japanese, 56.
+   distaste for adventure, 57.
+   Grand Khan, the, 49.
+     exchanges greetings with Pope of Rome, 50.
+   hatred of the Japanese, 56.
+   immigration forbidden in United States, 235.
+   immigration, restrictions on, 64.
+   in the Malay Archipelago, 58.
+   in the United States, 53.
+   --Japanese alliance not likely, 56.
+   labour on Canadian railways, 233.
+   landing fees in Canada, 234.
+   national spirit of the, 51.
+   non-aggressive, 56.
+   parent races of, 49.
+   poll-tax in Australia, 234.
+   rights in the Malay Peninsula, 142.
+   Socialists, 49.
+   students visit Japan, 53.
+   war, the, 26.
+
+ Christian missionaries in China, 50.
+
+ _Chuen Hsueh Pien_, the Bible of Chinese moderate reformers, 52.
+
+ Clayton-Bulwer treaty, the, 81.
+
+ Colbert, the Minister of Louis XIV., 167.
+
+ Colombia, army of, 198.
+
+ Colombo, Capt. Macaulay on, 97.
+
+ "Colossus of the North," the, 17, 25.
+
+ Columbia, 163.
+
+ Columbus, 104, 105.
+
+ _Commonwealth Crisis, The_, 253.
+
+ Commonwealth of Australia, birth-rate of, 256, 257.
+
+ Confucianism in China, 48, 49, 56 (footnote), 57.
+
+ Constantinople, Convention of, 221.
+   Russia in, 23.
+   the Turk in possession of, 41.
+
+ Cook, Captain, 94, 101.
+   annexes Australia, 95, 123.
+   lands at Botany Bay, 104.
+   visits New Zealand, 123, 141.
+
+ Corea, 5, 6.
+   and the Tartar invaders of Japan, 35.
+   annexed by Japan, 38, 42, 260.
+   independence of, 202.
+   Japan and, 64.
+   Japanese interests in, 205.
+   territorial integrity of, 25, 200, 202, 206.
+
+ Cortes, 2, 3, 156.
+
+ Cossacks, the, 187, 188.
+   the, and Siberia, 5.
+
+ Courteen, Sir William, 104.
+
+ Crimean War, the, 24.
+
+ Cross and Crescent, 23.
+
+ Cuba, 260.
+   conquered by Velasquez, 156.
+   fate of, 155.
+   Guantanamo Bay, 179.
+   naval base at, 222.
+   Spain's misgovernment of, 82.
+
+ Cushing, Mr Caleb, 81.
+
+ _Cygnet_, the, 104.
+
+
+ Dale, Sir Thomas, 166.
+
+ Dampier, William, visits Australia, 104.
+
+ Darius and the Greeks, 40.
+
+ Dashwood, Mr, 252.
+
+ Declaration of Neutrality of 1893, American, 68.
+
+ De Monts, 166.
+
+ De Quiros, 104.
+
+ De Torres, 104.
+
+ Diaz, 2.
+   abdication of, 159.
+   and the Mexican revolutionaries, 158.
+   fall of, 158.
+
+ Dickinson, Mr, United States Secretary for War, 172 (footnote).
+
+ Drake, Sir Francis, 69, 91.
+
+ "Dreadnought" types in 1912 and 1915, forecast of, 184.
+
+
+ Ecuador, 151, 161, 260.
+   army of, 198.
+
+ Edward, Dr Hall, 229.
+
+ Effective tonnage of the three greatest Naval Powers in 1912 and
+     1915, 185.
+
+ Egyptians' device for avoiding mosquitoes, 217.
+
+ Elizabeth, Queen, 24.
+
+ Elizabethan Englishman, the, 69, 148.
+   era, the, 90, 214.
+
+ England, an ingenious speculation as to her climate on opening of Panama
+     Canal, 220.
+   Elizabethan, the spirit of, 76.
+   her sea-power, 89.
+
+ English Channel, the, 87.
+
+ Englishman, the Elizabethan, 69, 148.
+
+ _Entente_ between Great Britain and Russia, 199.
+
+ Europe prohibits Asiatic internecine warfare, 59.
+
+ European ambassadors to China, the first, 40.
+   "balance of power," a, 17.
+   hegemony, the, 40.
+   relations with China, 49.
+   scientists and Asiatics, 59.
+   trade and missions in China, 50.
+
+
+ Fanning Island, 251.
+
+ Fiji, 3.
+   Group acquired by Great Britain, 134.
+   Hindoo labourers in, 231.
+
+ Fijian, a typical gardener, 143.
+
+ Filipinos, the, 82.
+
+ Finns, the, 21.
+
+ Fisher, Mr, Prime Minister of Australia, 133.
+
+ Fitz-Gerald, Mr James Edward, 126.
+
+ Fleet unit, the Australian, 113 _et seq._
+
+ Formosa, 4.
+   ceded by China to Japan, 38.
+
+ Fotheringham, Colonel, 196.
+
+ France, 3, 10, 199.
+   and China, suggested alliance, 48.
+   Napoleon and, 18.
+   trade relations with Japan, 38.
+
+ Fremantle, Dr Francis, 60.
+
+ French Canada of to-day, 167.
+   under theocratic despotism, 167.
+
+ French-Canadian priesthood, the, 168.
+
+ French Canadians, 165, 168.
+   their national character, 168.
+
+ French project for Panama Canal, 216.
+   Revolution, the, 124.
+
+ French, the, 267.
+
+
+ Galapagos Islands, the, 222, 224, 260.
+
+ Gatun Lake, area of, 218, 219.
+
+ Gengis Khan, 22, 49.
+
+ German navy: effective tonnage, 185.
+   power in the Atlantic, 212.
+
+ Germans, the, in Kiao-Chau, 10.
+
+ Germany, 3, 10.
+   a possible ally of Japan, 199.
+   a possible ally of United States, 199, 212.
+
+ Gordon, General, 47.
+
+ Grant, President, 74.
+
+ Great Britain a Free Trade country, 206.
+   abandons "splendid isolation" ideal, 27.
+   acquires the Fiji Group, 134.
+   and her Indian Empire, 86.
+   and Japan, alliance, 14, 28, 34, 39, 199.
+     Treaty of Commerce and Navigation with Japan, 206, 207-211.
+   and Russia, an understanding between, 213, 214.
+     _entente_ between, 199.
+     friendship between, 211.
+   and the Pacific, 269.
+   and United States, an instinct towards friendliness, 199.
+     friendliness between, 215.
+     treaty with United States, 220.
+   annexes New Zealand, 125.
+   entry into the Pacific, 85.
+   her naval strength in the Pacific, 14.
+   Imperialist sentiment in, 203.
+   navy of, 180.
+   sensitive to opinions of her Dominions, 203.
+   the rivalry of the United States, 269.
+   trade relations with Japan, 38.
+
+ Great Britain, where established on west of Pacific, 248.
+
+ Great Lakes, the, and the United States, 70.
+
+ Greek Church, the, 22, 188.
+   and the Byzantine Empire, 23.
+   republics, the, and the Persian Empire, 41.
+
+ Greeks and Persians, 40.
+
+ Grijalba in Mexico, 156.
+
+ Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, 179.
+
+ Gulf Stream, the, 87, 219.
+
+
+ "Habitants," 167.
+
+ Hairy Ainus, the, 35.
+
+ Hamilton, Alexander, 71.
+
+ Hawaii and the Maoris, 139.
+   Arms Registration Ordinance, 79.
+   Spaniards in, 93.
+   the coolies and traders of, 145.
+   the key to the Pacific coast of North America, 3.
+
+ Hawaiian garrison, the, 190.
+   Group, natives helpless material for nation-making, 145.
+   Islands, the, 77, 258, 259.
+     annexation of, 78, 81, 83.
+     Japanese in the, 44, 45, 58.
+     Republic formed, 78.
+   population: the chief element, 79, 80, 81.
+
+ Hawaiians, the parent stock of the, 142, 145.
+
+ _Health and Empire_, cit., 59-62.
+
+ Hegemony of Pacific Ocean, 258.
+
+ Heine, cit., 24.
+
+ Henderson, Sir Reginald, 181.
+
+ Hercules, the Pillars of, 1.
+
+ Herodotus, 217.
+
+ Holland, British treaty with, 96.
+
+ Holy Alliance, the, 72, 155.
+
+ Honduras, U.S.A., treaty with, 270-271.
+
+ Hong Kong, 11, 85, 97, 248, 250.
+   harbour of, 98.
+
+ Honolulu, 12, 260.
+   a holiday scene at, 80.
+   Harbour, 259.
+   Hiram Bingham's first sermon at, 77.
+   naval base at, 78, 80.
+
+ Hughes, Colonel, 174, 195.
+
+ Huidekoper, Mr, 171 (footnote), 172 (footnote).
+
+ Huns, the, 40.
+
+
+ Imperial Conference of 1911, the, 127 _et seq._
+   Defence Conference of 1909, the, 111, 172, 181, 183.
+     the British Admiralty memorandum concerning, 112.
+   Navy, an, 112, 130.
+
+ Imperialism of Australia, 110.
+
+ Imperialist sentiment in Great Britain, 203.
+
+ Incas, the, 151, 152, 153.
+
+ "Independent Tribes of New Zealand," the, 125.
+
+ India, 11.
+   an independent, 9.
+   British garrisons in, 191.
+   defence of, 249.
+   Great Britain's apprehensions regarding, 25.
+   internecine warfare prohibited in, 59.
+   occupation of, 249.
+   Russia and, 25.
+   the British in, 9.
+   the _Raj_ and, 9.
+   the Sepoy forces in, 191.
+   western sea-passage to, 92.
+   White garrison of, 249.
+
+ Indian Empire, the, Great Britain and, 86.
+   frontier, the, 205.
+   Ocean, the, 85.
+
+ Industrial position in the Pacific, 235, 240.
+   "spheres of influence," 236, 240.
+
+ Infanticide in China, 57.
+
+ Internecine warfare prohibited by Europe, 59.
+
+ Isthmian Canal, the, 271.
+
+ Ivan the Terrible, 5.
+
+
+ James I., 104.
+
+ Japan, 3, 4 _et al._
+   a dwindling Power, 8.
+   alliance with Great Britain, 39.
+   an offender against China's national pride, 64.
+   and Christianity, 32, 33.
+   and Corea, 64.
+   and Great Britain, alliance, 14, 199.
+   and Manchuria, 64.
+   and Russia, 25, 26.
+   and Shintoism, 32.
+   and the Christian faith, 37.
+   and the problem of the Pacific, 42.
+   and trade relations with White
+   civilisation, 37, 38.
+   army of, 189.
+   army and navy of, 6.
+   bases for industrial prosperity in, 7.
+   character of her population, 43.
+   exclusiveness of, 37.
+   feudal, 36.
+   Germany a possible ally of, 199.
+   healing of local feuds in, 59.
+   in the Pacific, strategical position of, 260.
+   industrial expansion of, 7.
+   labour movement in, 7.
+   "most-favoured-nation" rates, 206.
+   nation-making, 32.
+   "natural capital" of, 44.
+   natural resources of, 6.
+   navy of, 14, 177, 178.
+   poverty of, 5, 6.
+   rumoured alliance with Mexico, 159.
+   Sea of, 260.
+   Shintoism in, 36.
+   territories won in battle, 6.
+   the awakening of, 31.
+   the greatest warrior Power in the Pacific, 32.
+   the "honoured ally" of Great Britain, 33.
+   the Mikados of, 31, 36.
+   the rise of, 31.
+   the Tartar invaders of, 35.
+   Treaty of Commerce and Navigation with Great Britain, 206, 207-211.
+   war with China, 26.
+   war with Russia, 7, 25 _et seq._, 265, 268.
+   warlike confidence of, 6.
+
+ Japanese acquire Formosa, 38.
+   acquire the Pescadores, 38.
+   ancestry of, 35.
+   and British, analogy between, 35.
+   annex Corea, 38, 42.
+   arrogance of the, 46.
+   artistry of the, 34.
+   as painters and potters, 33.
+   --Chinese alliance the greatest Asiatic peril, 266.
+   contempt for Chinese, 56.
+   disappointment with the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, 210-211.
+   emigrants, 45, 46.
+   Government proposes State adoption of Christian religion, 32 (footnote).
+   hatred of, by Chinese, 56.
+   interests in Corea, 205.
+   Minister for Home Affairs: communication to Japanese
+       Press, 32-33 (footnote).
+   national feeling of the, 46.
+   naval estimates (current), 177.
+   settlements, 44.
+   tariffs, 241, 242.
+   the chief element of Hawaiian population, 79, 80, 81.
+   their reputed genius for war, 28.
+   transformation of the race, 33.
+
+ Java, 93.
+
+ Java Major, 103.
+
+ Jebb, Mr Richard, 232.
+
+ Jesuit missionaries in China, 50.
+
+ "Jingoism" of British nations in South Pacific, the, 95.
+
+
+ Kanakas, the, 136, 142, 143, 144, 145.
+
+ Kiao-Chou and the German "mailed fist," 10.
+
+ Kidman, Mr Sydney, 252.
+
+ Kirk, David, 166.
+
+ Kirness, C. H., 253.
+
+ Kitchener, Field-Marshal Lord, 111.
+
+ Knox, Secretary, 159 (footnote), 212.
+
+ Kouropatkin, General, 29.
+
+ Kwei Chih, Mr, 55 (footnote).
+
+
+ Labour and anti-Asiatic movements, 232, 233.
+   movement in Japan, the, 7.
+
+ Lansdowne, Marquess of, 201.
+
+ Latin America, 147 _et seq._, 162, 273.
+   and the Monroe doctrine, 162.
+   British export trade with, 162, 163.
+   navy of, 183.
+   race-mixture in, 147.
+   strength of, 160-161.
+   summary of position of, 163.
+   the military strength of, 196.
+   universal service in, 197.
+
+ Latin-American armies, the, 197.
+   Empire, a, 161.
+   Power, a, 150.
+   Republics, the, 72, 75.
+   United States, the Suzerain Power of, 74.
+
+ Latin-Indian race, the, 147.
+
+ Latin peoples, the, 267.
+
+ Laurier, Sir Wilfrid, 128, 183, 194.
+   defeat of, 170 _et seq._
+
+ Laval, Monseigneur, 167.
+
+ Lesseps, Ferdinand de, 216.
+
+ Levant, the, 41.
+
+ Lithuania, Roman culture in, 22.
+
+ Lithuanians, the, 22.
+
+ Logie, Colonel, 196.
+
+ _London Gazette_, the, on America, 70.
+
+ Louis XIV. of France, 167.
+
+ Louisiana, cession of, 72.
+
+
+ Macaulay, Captain, 97.
+
+ Macdonald, Sir C., 201.
+
+ Machiavelli, 57.
+
+ Magalhaes, 104.
+
+ Malacca, 95.
+
+ Malakiki Hill, the Gibraltar of Honolulu, 79.
+
+ Malay Archipelago, the, 58.
+   Peninsula, the, 230.
+     Chinese rights in, 142.
+   States, the, 142.
+
+ Malays and Chinese, 230.
+
+ Malaysians, the, 139.
+
+ Malthusian checks, 57, 65.
+
+ Manchu dynasty, the, 50, 55 (footnote).
+
+ Manchuria, 5, 6, 20.
+   Japan and, 64.
+   Russian generals in, 29.
+
+ Manchus, the, 8, 9, 266.
+
+ Manila, 260.
+
+ Maori flag saluted by British warship, 125.
+
+ Maori, the, 122, 136, 138, 139.
+   race in 1769, population of, 141.
+   system of government, the, 139.
+   War, the, 140.
+
+ Maoris, cannibalism prevalent among, 140.
+   cede their country to Queen Victoria, 125.
+   chivalry of, 140.
+   in New Zealand, population of, 145.
+   results of civilisation, 141.
+   similarity to Japanese, 141.
+   the parent stock of the, 142.
+
+ Marco Polo, 49, 103.
+
+ Marsden, Rev. Samuel, 123.
+
+ Maximilian, 157.
+
+ Mediterranean, the, 1.
+   and the White Man, 267.
+   Russia and, 18, 23.
+
+ Melanesia, 94.
+
+ Meliorism, 265.
+
+ Mencius, 52.
+
+ Merritt, Lieut.-Col. Wm. Hamilton, 195.
+
+ Mexicans, the aboriginal, 137.
+   the, and Diaz, 158.
+
+ Mexico, 2, 150, 259.
+   army of, 197.
+   Balboa in, 153.
+   Empire of, 157.
+   Grijalba lands at, 156.
+   Gulf of, and the United States, 70.
+   Republic of, 161, 163.
+   rumoured alliance with Japan, 159.
+   Spaniards in, 92.
+   under Spanish rule, 157.
+   United States and intervention, 159, 269.
+   Velasquez in, 156-157.
+   yields independence to Cortes, 156.
+
+ Meyer, Secretary, U.S. Navy, 178, 179.
+
+ Mikados of Japan, 31, 36.
+
+ Military College of Australia, the, 192.
+   official conditions of, 193.
+   strength of Latin America, the, 196.
+   training in Canada, 196.
+
+ Militia, Canadian, a conference on organisation, 195.
+
+ Militia force of Canada, 194.
+
+ Ming dynasty, the, 50.
+
+ Miscegenation, 148, 149.
+
+ Mississippi, the, 165.
+
+ Mogul, the Great, 3.
+
+ Mohammedans and China, 48.
+
+ Mongol dynasty, the, 49.
+   invasion of Russia, 22.
+
+ Mongolia, Russia's designs on, 211.
+
+ Mongols, the, 21, 44.
+
+ Monroe doctrine, the, 155, 159 (footnote), 160, 171, 220.
+   in United States, 71, 72, 73, 75.
+     extended in scope, 73-74.
+
+ Monroe, President, 71.
+   his formal message, 72 _et seq._
+
+ Morioris, the, 139.
+
+ Moscow, 22.
+
+ Mosquitoes, 217.
+   Herodotus on, 217.
+   massacre of, in Panama Canal-building, 217.
+   Papuan natives and, 217.
+   trouble of, in cutting Suez Canal, 218.
+
+ Mukden, battle of, 29, 39, 40, 41, 42.
+
+ Murray, His Excellency Colonel, 144.
+
+ Muscovite Czars, the, 23.
+
+
+ Napoleon, 16, 17, 18, 40, 72, 157, 246.
+   and Russia, 24.
+
+ Napoleonic Wars, the, 155.
+
+ Naval forces of the Pacific, 176 _et seq._
+
+ Navies of the Pacific:
+   Argentine Republic, 183.
+   Australia, 182.
+   Canada, 183.
+   Chili, 183.
+   China, 178.
+   Great Britain, 180.
+   Japan, 177.
+   Latin America, 183.
+   Russia, 176.
+   United States, 178.
+
+ Navy, an Imperial, 130.
+
+ Neutral market, a, 230.
+   markets, Asiatics in, 235, 236, 237.
+   in which Asiatics can compete, 244.
+
+ Negro problem, the, 274.
+
+ "New France," a, in America, 165.
+   the early founders of, 166.
+
+ New Guinea, 248.
+   annexed by Queensland, 134.
+
+ New South Wales, birth-rate of, 255.
+   Royal Commission on fall of birth-rate, 255, 257.
+
+ New York, Naval Yard of, 13.
+
+ _New York Sun_, the, 212.
+
+ New Zealand, 3, 11, 13, 94, 248, 250, 265, 277.
+   a Company formed to colonise, 123.
+     its prospectus, 124.
+   a steady flow of emigrants to, 125.
+   and the smaller Colonies, 120 _et seq._
+   anti-Asiatic policy of, 279.
+   army of, 191.
+   Captain Cook visits, 123, 141.
+   Christianity introduced, 123.
+   colonists aggressively Imperial, 95.
+   early settlers, 122.
+   Empire, a, 134.
+   exclusion of Asiatics, 234.
+   formally taken over by Great Britain, 125.
+   impatient Imperialism of, 277.
+   Imperial patriotism of, 127.
+   Maoris in, 145.
+   naval agreement with, 132, 133 (footnote).
+   naval policy of, 133.
+   population of, 141.
+   strategical position of, 251.
+   the "Bush," 120.
+   the Treaty of Waitangi, 125, 126.
+   universal training for military service, 130.
+
+ Nicaragua, U.S.A., treaty with, 270.
+
+ Norfolk Island, 251.
+
+ Normans, the, 22, 89, 90.
+
+ Norsemen pirates, the, 89.
+
+ North America, the Republic of, 150.
+
+ North Sea, the, 87.
+
+ Northern Territory of Australia, the, 138, 238 (footnote), 251, 252,
+     253, 254, 262.
+   conditions as regards productiveness and health, 254.
+   decidedly healthy, 254.
+   life in, 254.
+
+ Novgorod, 213.
+
+
+ Ocean of the future, the, 1 _et seq._
+
+ "Open-door" agreements, 236, 241.
+
+ Opium War of 1840, the, 50.
+
+ Oregon, annexation of, 73.
+
+ Osaka _Mainichi_, the, on the Anglo-Japanese Alliance, 210.
+
+ Ottoman invasion, the, 41.
+   suzerainty of Europe, Napoleon and the, 40.
+
+ Oversea Dominions, population of, 128, 129.
+
+
+ Pacific armies, the chief, 198.
+   British Dominions, uneasiness regarding British-Japanese Treaty, 202,
+       204.
+   Fleet: Australian unit, 181.
+     of American battleships, the welcome given to, 278.
+   Russia urged to build a, 213.
+
+ Pacific, the, American influence in, 11-12.
+   and Great Britain, 269.
+   and the United States, 269.
+   armies of the, 186 _et seq._
+   British Empire and the mastery of, 11.
+   British influence in, 11.
+   British possessions in, 13.
+   British trade interests in, 162.
+   China and, 8 _et seq._
+   control of: an Anglo-Celtic union advisable, 14.
+   Drake's log on entering, 91.
+   fortresses and trading stations, 3.
+   France and, 10.
+   future of, Japan's chance, 265.
+   future of, with White Races, 265.
+   Germany and, 10.
+   Great Britain and, 10.
+   hegemony of, 4, 46.
+   India and, 9, 10.
+   industrial position, governed by excluding Asiatic labour, 235, 240.
+   industrial position in, 228 _et seq._
+   Japan and, 5 _et seq._
+   Japan the greatest warrior Power in, 32.
+   naval and military forces in, 15.
+   navies of the, 176 _et seq._
+   no Free Trade ideas in the, 235.
+   ocean of the future, 1.
+   position of Japan in, 46.
+   rivals for, 263 _et seq._
+   Russia in, 16 _et seq._, 268.
+   Russian influence in, 4.
+   South America and, 10.
+   Spain in, 91.
+   strategical position of Japan in, 260.
+     of United States in, 260.
+   strategy of, 246.
+   Treaties in, 199.
+   United States and, 68.
+   Yellow and White Races and, 63.
+
+ Palmyra Island, 12 (footnote).
+
+ Pan-American Bureau, the, 272.
+   Conferences, 272, 273.
+
+ Panama Canal, the, 5, 12, 13, 42, 75, 160, 163, 176, 178, 179, 216
+     _et seq._, 218, 220, 243, 259, 260, 265, 280.
+   and United States, 269.
+   American commerce and, 225.
+   amount expended by United States, 227.
+   amount of Pacific and Atlantic water exchanged by, 220.
+   as a tariff weapon, 224.
+   early difficulties, 216.
+   free navigation of, 221.
+   intended by United States as means of securing dominance in Pacific,
+       223, 224.
+   military police for, 221.
+   naval base at Cuba, 222.
+   "neutralisation" of the, 220.
+   plague of mosquitoes, 217.
+   Secretary Meyer on, 179.
+   sovereign rights of the United States, 222.
+   tolls, 225.
+   treaty regarding management, 220.
+
+ Panama, hills of, 219
+   Isthmus, the, 81, 155.
+     by no means unhealthy, 218.
+   the United States and, 67.
+
+ Papua, natives of, and mosquitoes, 217.
+
+ Papua, New Guinea, 144.
+
+ Paraguay, army of, 198.
+   Republic of, 161.
+
+ Peace Societies, 109.
+
+ Peace of Shimonoseki, the, and its consequences, 38.
+
+ Pearl Harbour, 78, 79.
+
+ Pekin, the expedition of 1900 to, 50.
+
+ Penang, 95.
+
+ Persia and the Greeks, 40.
+
+ Persian Gulf, the, 25.
+
+ Peru, 2, 10, 92, 150, 151 _et seq._, 160.
+   occupied by Spaniards, 154.
+
+ Peruvians, the, 8, 137.
+   and the elimination of the fighting instinct, 111.
+   Spanish description of, 152.
+
+ Pescadores, the, acquired by Japan, 38.
+
+ Philippine garrison, the, 190.
+
+ Philippines, the, 3, 4, 12, 104, 259.
+   Anson's attempt to subdue, 91.
+   the Spaniards at, 104.
+   United States acquire, 82.
+
+ Pizarro, Francisco, 153, 156.
+
+ "Places at table," 118.
+
+ "Places in the sun," 118.
+
+ Plague, the, 59.
+   Dr Francis Fremantle on, 60.
+   Prof. W. J. Simpson on, 61.
+
+ Polk, President, 73.
+
+ Polo, Marco, 49, 103.
+
+ Polynesia, 94.
+
+ Pope of Rome exchanges greetings with Chinese Grand Khan, 50.
+
+ Portugal: trade relations with Japan, 38.
+
+ Poutrincourt, 166.
+
+ Power, Senator, 196.
+
+ Prayers for rain, 106.
+
+ Preventive medicine as aid to population, 118.
+
+ Protection, a rigid system of, 226.
+
+
+ Quebec, 166.
+   captured by Admiral Kirk, 166.
+   restored to France, 167.
+   the capital of "New France," 166.
+
+ Queensland annexes New Guinea, 134.
+
+
+ Race-mixture, instinct against, 20.
+
+ Race troubles in Canada, 233.
+
+ Races, psychology of, 35.
+
+ Raffles, Sir Stamford, 96.
+
+ Rain, prayers for, 106.
+
+ Raw levies, uselessness of, 197.
+
+ Republicanism in China, 54, 55.
+   Mr Kwei Chih on, 55 (footnote).
+
+ Richelieu, 166.
+
+ Rocky Mountains, the, 169, 243.
+
+ _Roebuck_, the, 104.
+
+ Roman Catholics in Canada, 168.
+
+ Roman invasion of Britain, 87, 88.
+
+ Romanised Britons, 88.
+
+ _Rosanna_, the, conveys pioneers to New Zealand, 123.
+
+ Rurik, 22.
+
+ Russia, 3, 4.
+   and a Pacific Fleet, 213.
+   and Great Britain, _entente_ between, 199.
+   and India, 18.
+   and Japan, 25, 26.
+   and Napoleon, 24.
+   and Siberia, 25.
+   and the Mediterranean, 18, 23.
+   and the Napoleonic invasion, 16, 17.
+   and the Pacific, 10.
+   and the Persian Gulf, 25.
+   army of, 186, 187.
+   British dread of, 18.
+   British maritime intercourse with, 214.
+   Cross versus Crescent, 23.
+   early European civilisations, 21.
+   European jealousy of, 5.
+   expansion of, 19.
+     mistrust of European Powers, 24.
+   future position of, in the Pacific, 29.
+   Great Britain's alarm of, 24, 25.
+   Greeks and Romans in, 21.
+   in Constantinople, 23.
+   interior of, 21.
+   invasion of the Turks, 23.
+   Lord Salisbury on, 16.
+   national heroes of, 22.
+   naval strategy of, 261.
+   navy of, 176.
+   race-mixture in, 20.
+   religious faith, 22.
+   service to civilisation, 23.
+   the avenger of the White Races, 23.
+   war with Japan, 7, 19, 25 _et seq._, 265.
+
+ Russian intentions on Mongolia, 211.
+
+ Russians, faith of the, 23.
+
+ Russo-Japanese War, the, 7, 19, 25 _et seq._, 265.
+   difficulties of Russians, 29.
+
+
+ St Francis Xavier, 37.
+
+ St Germain-en-Laye, Treaty of, 167.
+
+ St Helena, Napoleon in, 18.
+
+ St Lawrence, the, 165.
+
+ Saito, Baron, 46.
+
+ Salisbury, Lord, 16.
+
+ Sandwich Islands, 77.
+
+ San Francisco, 91, 260.
+
+ Satsuma, revolt of the, 38.
+
+ Sea of Japan, 260, 261.
+
+ Selkirks, the, 169, 243.
+
+ Semites, the, 21.
+
+ Sepoy forces in India, 191.
+
+ "Setch," the Cossack, 188, 189.
+
+ Shimonoseki, the Peace of, 38.
+   the Straits of, 38.
+
+ Shintoism, 32, 36.
+
+ Shoguns, the, 36.
+
+ Siberia, Russia and, 25.
+   the Cossacks and, 5.
+
+ Siberian Railway, the, 186.
+
+ Simeon, 22.
+
+ Simpson, Prof. W. J., on the Plague, 61.
+
+ Singapore, 11, 85, 95, 96, 250, 258.
+   harbour of, 97.
+
+ Slavs, the, 22, 267.
+
+ Socialism in Japan, 7.
+
+ Socialists in China, 49.
+
+ Sorcerer, the, in the South Sea Islands, 149.
+
+ South America, 10.
+
+ South American armies, 198.
+
+ South Pacific, the British Flag in, 135.
+   the native races, 135.
+
+ South Sea Islands, 93, 149.
+
+ Spain: war with United States, 82.
+
+ "Spheres of influence," the, 85, 236, 240.
+
+ Spice Islands, the, 93.
+
+ Straits of Shimonoseki forced, 38.
+
+ Straits Settlements, the, 248.
+
+ Strategical considerations, 245 _et seq._
+
+ Suez Canal, free navigation of, 221.
+   the mosquito trouble, 218.
+
+ Sumarai, the, 32.
+
+ Sun-worship, 151.
+
+ Suva, 143.
+
+
+ Taft, President, 159 (footnote), 171 (footnote), 218, 225, 271.
+
+ Talon, Jean Baptiste, 167.
+
+ Taoism, 49.
+
+ Tartar and Mongol tribes, the, 49.
+
+ Tartary, 3, 22.
+
+ Tasmania, 137.
+
+ Teutons, the, 267.
+
+ Texas, annexation of, 73.
+
+ Thakombau, King, 134.
+
+ Theodosius, Emperor, 49.
+
+ Tibet, British intentions on, 211.
+
+ Tokio _Nichi-Nichi_, the, 211.
+
+ Tracy, Marquis de, 167.
+
+ Trade reciprocity, 164, 174.
+
+ Trans-Andine railways, the, 10.
+
+ Treaties in the Pacific, 199.
+
+ Treaties with Japan, British (1902), 199.
+   (1905), 204-209.
+   (1911), 199, 206, 207-211.
+
+ Treaty of Commerce and Navigation between Great Britain and Japan, 206,
+     207-211.
+   of St Germain-en-Laye, 167.
+
+ Triple Alliance, the, 199.
+
+ Triple Entente, the, 213.
+
+ Truvor, 22.
+
+ Turkey, Lord Salisbury on, 16.
+
+ Turks, the, 23, 40.
+   at Constantinople, 41.
+   Russia and, 19.
+
+
+ United States, the, 2, 3, 12, 13.
+   a social difficulty, 274.
+   absorption of Mexican territory by, 158.
+   acquisition of Hawaii, 78, 81, 83.
+   aggressively Imperial, 68.
+   and Cuba, 82.
+   and Germany, possibilities of an "understanding" between, 212.
+   and Great Britain, an instinct towards friendliness, 199, 215.
+   and the Atlantic, 67.
+   and the Negroes, 233.
+   and the Philippines, 82.
+   and trade relations with Japan, 37.
+   army of, 190.
+   British diplomacy and, 276, 277, 279.
+   considering intervention in Mexico, 159.
+   control waterway from Atlantic to Pacific, 82.
+   decide to construct Panama Canal, 216.
+   Declaration of Neutrality, 70.
+   established in the Caribbean Sea, 67.
+     on the Isthmus of Panama, 67.
+   establishing naval base at Cuba, 222.
+   foreign policy, 75.
+   Germany a possible ally of, 199.
+   imperialism in, 66.
+   in the Pacific, strategical position of, 260.
+   lynchings in, 20.
+   marvellous growth of, 70, 72.
+   miscegenation in, 20.
+   naval strength of, in the Pacific, 14.
+   navy, 178.
+     effective tonnage, 185.
+     Secretary Meyer's report on, 178.
+   neutral markets, 83.
+   organisation of industrial machinery, 243.
+   Pacific possessions, 84.
+   policy, Imperialist tendency of, 77.
+   rivals of Great Britain, 269.
+   rules for exclusion of Chinese, 235.
+   strategical position of, 258.
+   the greatest factor in the Problem of the Pacific, 68.
+   the greatest White nation of the world, 150.
+   the "Monroe doctrine" in, 71, 72, 73, 75.
+   the Suzerain Power of the Latin-American Republics, 74.
+   war with Spain, 82
+   when Panama Canal opened, the greatest Power of the Pacific, 243.
+
+ Universal military training proposed in Canada, 196.
+
+ "Universal service" in Latin America, 197.
+
+ Ural Mountains, the, 20.
+
+ Uruguay, 161, 163.
+
+
+ Vancouver, 251.
+
+ Veddas, the, 138.
+
+ Velasquez, conqueror of Cuba, 156.
+
+ Venezuela controversy, the, 74.
+   Republic of, 161.
+
+ Victoria, Queen, 24, 125.
+
+ Vienna and the Ottoman invasion, 41.
+
+
+ Waitangi, the Treaty of, 125, 126.
+
+ Wakefield, Mr Edward Gibbon, 124.
+
+ Wallace on the black Australian, 137.
+
+ War, the necessity of, 6.
+
+ Ward, Sir Joseph, 127 _et seq._
+
+ Washington's farewell address, 71.
+
+ Wei-hai-wei, 248, 250.
+
+ Wesleyan mission to New Zealand, 132.
+
+ "White Australia," 107, 254.
+   laws, the, 20.
+   policy, basis of, 232.
+
+ White garrison of India, the, 249.
+   labour, impatient, 240.
+   Man and the Pacific, 63.
+   Race, the, 2, 4, 107.
+     conquests of, 41.
+     superiority of, 263, 267.
+   Races, America and the, 12.
+     birth-rate, 257.
+     neither enervated nor decadent, 264.
+     the future of the Pacific with the, 265.
+   Russia consolidated by the Normans, 22.
+     Mongol invasion of, 22.
+
+ _Worker, The_, on Asiatic colonisation, 240 (footnote).
+
+
+ Xavier, St Francis, 37.
+
+ "X-Ray Martyr," the, 229.
+
+
+ Yellow Man, danger of overrunning the Pacific, 63.
+
+ "Yellow Peril," the, 264, 280.
+
+ Yellow Race, the, 2, 4.
+   defeats the White Race in war, 39.
+
+ Yellow Races, the United States and the, 13.
+
+ Yturbidi, Emperor Augustin de, 157.
+
+ Yuan Shih-Kai, 54.
+
+
+PRINTED BY NEILL AND CO., LTD., EDINBURGH.
+
+
+
+
+       *       *       *       *       *
+
+
+
+
+Transcriber's note:
+
+1. Except as noted below, spelling and inconsistencies have been
+retained as they appear in the original publication.
+
+2. "X-ray" in the text appears as "X-Ray" in the index.
+
+3. "FitzGerald" in the text appears as "Fitz-Gerald" in the index.
+
+4. On page 205, in the sentence starting "Japan possessing paramount",
+"Great Britain" was "Gerat Britain" in the original.
+
+5. On page 240, "wheel-barrow" was "wheel-barrrow" in the original.
+
+6. The punctuation in the index has been made consistent.
+
+7. The name "Terra Austrialia del Espiritu Santo" is correct.
+"Austrialia" was an invented hybrid word combining the names "Austria"
+and "australis" as a compliment to King Phillip III of Spain who was a
+member of the House of Habsburg (Austria).
+
+8. "the cageing of the great soldier" was changed to "the caging of the
+great soldier"
+
+9. "Hayti" is an old spelling of "Haiti". It has been retained.
+
+10. On p. 155 the word "reassert" has been changed from "re-assert" to
+match the spelling elsewhere in the book.
+
+*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK 40305 ***