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+Project Gutenberg (https://www.gutenberg.org) public repository for
+eBook #66225 (https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/66225)
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-The Project Gutenberg eBook of Icarus, by Bertrand Russell
-
-This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United States and
-most other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no restrictions
-whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms
-of the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at
-www.gutenberg.org. If you are not located in the United States, you
-will have to check the laws of the country where you are located before
-using this eBook.
-
-Title: Icarus
-       or, The Future of Science
-
-Author: Bertrand Russell
-
-Release Date: September 5, 2021 [eBook #66225]
-
-Language: English
-
-Character set encoding: UTF-8
-
-Produced by: Tim Lindell, Charlie Howard, and the Online Distributed
-             Proofreading Team at https://www.pgdp.net (This file was
-             produced from images generously made available by The Internet
-             Archive/American Libraries.)
-
-*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK ICARUS ***
-
-
-
-
-ICARUS
-
-OR
-
-THE FUTURE OF SCIENCE
-
-
-
-
-BY THE SAME AUTHOR
-
-The A.B.C. OF ATOMS
-
-12mo., cloth $2.00
-
-
-In the last few years the study of Radioactivity has brought about
-amazing advances in our knowledge of the properties and nature of the
-Atom; and into this fascinating wonderland of the infinitely small
-yet infinitely complex and infinitely full of energy, Mr. Russell
-introduces us.
-
-
-  E. P. DUTTON & COMPANY
-  681 Fifth Avenue, New York
-
-
-
-
-  ICARUS
-
-  OR
-
-  The Future of Science
-
-  BY
-  BERTRAND RUSSELL
-
-
-  [Illustration]
-
-
-  NEW YORK
-  E. P. DUTTON & COMPANY
-  681 FIFTH AVENUE
-
-
-
-
-  Copyright, 1924
-  By E. P. Dutton & Company
-
-  _All Rights Reserved_
-
-  First printing, April, 1924
-  Second printing, June, 1924
-  Third printing, October, 1924
-  Fourth printing, December, 1924
-  Fifth Printing, December, 1924
-  Sixth Printing, June, 1925
-  Seventh Printing, June, 1925
-
-
-  Printed in the United States of America
-
-
-
-CONTENTS
-
-
-                                                PAGE
-      I.  Introductory                             5
-     II.  Effects of the Physical Sciences        15
-    III.  The Increase of Organization            23
-     IV.  The Anthropological Sciences            43
-          Conclusion                              57
-
-
-
-
-ICARUS
-
-OR
-
-THE FUTURE OF SCIENCE
-
-
-
-
-I. INTRODUCTORY
-
-
-Mr. Haldane’s _Daedalus_ has set forth an attractive picture of the
-future as it may become through the use of scientific discoveries
-to promote human happiness. Much as I should like to agree with his
-forecast, a long experience of statesmen and governments has made
-me somewhat sceptical. I am compelled to fear that science will be
-used to promote the power of dominant groups, rather than to make men
-happy. Icarus, having been taught to fly by his father Daedalus, was
-destroyed by his rashness. I fear that the same fate may overtake the
-populations whom modern men of science have taught to fly. Some of the
-dangers inherent in the progress of science while we retain our present
-political and economic institutions are set forth in the following
-pages.
-
-This subject is so vast that it is impossible, within a limited space,
-to do more than outline some of its aspects. The world in which we live
-differs profoundly from that of Queen Anne’s time, and this difference
-is mainly attributable to science. That is to say, the difference would
-be very much less than it is but for various scientific discoveries,
-but resulted from those discoveries by the operation of ordinary human
-nature. The changes that have been brought about have been partly
-good, partly bad; whether, in the end, science will prove to have been
-a blessing or a curse to mankind, is to my mind, still a doubtful
-question.
-
-A science may affect human life in two different ways. On the one
-hand, without altering men’s passions or their general outlook, it may
-increase their power of gratifying their desires. On the other hand,
-it may operate through an effect upon the imaginative conception of
-the world, the theology or philosophy which is accepted in practice by
-energetic men. The latter is a fascinating study, but I shall almost
-wholly ignore it, in order to bring my subject within a manageable
-compass. I shall confine myself almost wholly to the effect of science
-in enabling us to gratify our passions more freely, which has hitherto
-been far the more important of the two.
-
-From our point of view, we may divide the sciences into three groups:
-physical, biological, and anthropological. In the physical group I
-include chemistry, and broadly speaking any science concerned with the
-properties of matter apart from life. In the anthropological group I
-include all studies specially concerned with man: human physiology and
-psychology (between which no sharp line can be drawn), anthropology,
-history, sociology, and economics. All these studies can be illuminated
-by considerations drawn from biology; for instance, Rivers threw a new
-light on parts of economics by adducing facts about landed property
-among birds during the breeding season. But in spite of their
-connection with biology--a connection which is likely to grow closer
-as time goes on--they are broadly distinguished from biology by their
-methods and data, and deserve to be grouped apart, at any rate in a
-sociological inquiry.
-
-The effect of the biological sciences, so far, has been very small. No
-doubt Darwinism and the idea of evolution affected men’s imaginative
-outlook; arguments were derived in favour of free competition, and
-also of nationalism. But these effects were of the sort that I propose
-not to consider. It is probable that great effects will come from
-these sciences sooner or later. Mendelism might have revolutionized
-agriculture, and no doubt some similar theory will do so sooner
-or later. Bacteriology may enable us to exterminate our enemies by
-disease. The study of heredity may in time make eugenics an exact
-science, and perhaps we shall in a later age be able to determine at
-will the sex of our children. This would probably lead to an excess
-of males, involving a complete change in family institutions. But
-these speculations belong to the future. I do not propose to deal with
-the possible future effects of biology, both because my knowledge of
-biology is very limited, and because the subject has been admirably
-treated by Mr. Haldane.[1]
-
-    [1] See his _Daedalus, or Science and the Future_.
-
-The anthropological sciences are those from which, _a priori_, we might
-have expected the greatest social effects, but hitherto this has not
-proved to be the case, partly because these sciences are mostly still
-at an early stage of development. Even economics has not so far had
-much effect. Where it has seemed to have, this is because it advocated
-what was independently desired. Hitherto, the most effective of the
-anthropological sciences has been medicine, through its influence
-on sanitation and public health, and through the fact that it has
-discovered how to deal with malaria and yellow fever. Birth-control is
-also a very important social fact which comes into this category. But
-although the future effect of the anthropological sciences (to which I
-shall return presently) is illimitable, the effect up to the present
-has been confined within fairly narrow limits.
-
-One general observation to begin with. Science has increased man’s
-control over nature, and might therefore be supposed likely to increase
-his happiness and well-being. This would be the case if men were
-rational, but in fact they are bundles of passions and instincts.
-An animal species in a stable environment, if it does not die out,
-acquires an equilibrium between its passions and the conditions of
-its life. If the conditions are suddenly altered, the equilibrium is
-upset. Wolves in a state of nature have difficulty in getting food, and
-therefore need the stimulus of a very insistent hunger. The result is
-that their descendants, domestic dogs, over-eat if they are allowed to
-do so. When a certain amount of something is useful, and the difficulty
-of obtaining it is diminished, instinct will usually lead an animal to
-excess in the new circumstances. The sudden change produced by science
-has upset the balance between our instincts and our circumstances, but
-in directions not sufficiently noticed. Over-eating is not a serious
-danger, but over-fighting is. The human instincts of power and rivalry,
-like the dog’s wolfish appetite will need to be artificially curbed, if
-industrialism is to succeed.
-
-
-
-
-II. EFFECTS OF THE PHYSICAL SCIENCES
-
-
-Much the greatest part of the changes which science has made in social
-life is due to the physical sciences, as is evident when we consider
-that they brought about the industrial revolution. This is a trite
-topic, about which I shall say as little as my subject permits. There
-are, however, some points which must be made.
-
-First, industrialism, still has great parts of the earth’s surface to
-conquer. Russia and India are very imperfectly industrialized; China
-hardly at all. In South America there is room for immense development.
-One of the effects of industrialism is to make the world an economic
-unit: its ultimate consequences will be very largely due to this
-fact. But before the world can be effectively organized as a unit, it
-will probably be necessary to develop industrially all the regions
-capable of development that are at present backward. The effects of
-industrialism change as it becomes more wide-spread; this must be
-remembered in any attempt to argue from its past to its future.
-
-The second point about industrialism is that it increases the
-productivity of labour, and thus makes more luxuries possible. At
-first, in England, the chief luxury achieved was a larger population
-with an actual lowering of the standard of life. Then came a golden age
-when wages increased, hours of labour diminished, and simultaneously
-the middle-class grew more prosperous. That was while Great Britain
-was still supreme. With the growth of foreign industrialism, a new
-epoch began. Industrial organizations have seldom succeeded in becoming
-world-wide, and have consequently become national. Competition,
-formerly between individual firms, is now mainly between nations,
-and is therefore conducted by methods quite different from those
-contemplated by the classical economists.
-
-Modern industrialism is a struggle between nations for two things,
-markets and raw materials, as well as for the sheer pleasure of
-dominion. The labour which is set free from providing the necessaries
-of life tends to be more and more absorbed by national rivalry.
-There are first the armed forces of the State; then those who
-provide munitions of war, from the raw minerals up to the finished
-product; then the diplomatic and consular services; then the teachers
-of patriotism in schools; then the Press. All of these perform
-other functions as well, but the chief purpose is to minister to
-international competition. As another class whose labours are devoted
-to the same end, we must add a considerable proportion of the men
-of science. These men invent continually more elaborate methods of
-attack and defence. The net result of their labours is to diminish the
-proportion of the population that can be put into the fighting line,
-since more are required for munitions. This might seem a boon, but in
-fact war is now-a-days primarily against the civilian population, and
-in a defeated country they are liable to suffer just as much as the
-soldiers.
-
-It is science above all that has determined the importance of raw
-materials in international competition. Coal and iron and oil,
-especially, are the bases of power, and thence of wealth. The nation
-which possesses them, and has the industrial skill required to utilize
-them in war, can acquire markets by armed force, and levy tribute
-upon less fortunate nations. Economists have underestimated the part
-played by military prowess in the acquisition of wealth. The landed
-aristocracies of Europe were, in origin, warlike invaders. Their defeat
-by the bourgeoisie in the French Revolution, and the fear which this
-generated in the Duke of Wellington, facilitated the rise of the middle
-class. The wars of the eighteenth century decided that England was
-to be richer than France. The traditional economist’s rules for the
-distribution of wealth hold only when men’s actions are governed by
-law, i.e. when most people think the issue unimportant. The issues that
-people have considered vital have been decided by civil wars or wars
-between nations. And for the present, owing to science, the art of
-war consists in possessing coal, iron, oil, and the industrial skill
-to work them. For the sake of simplicity, I omit other raw materials,
-since they do not affect the essence of our problem.
-
-We may say, therefore, speaking very generally, that men have used
-the increased productivity which they owe to science for three chief
-purposes in succession: first, to increase the population; then, to
-raise the standard of comfort; and, finally, to provide more energy to
-war. This last result has been chiefly brought about by competition for
-markets, which led to competition for raw materials, especially the raw
-materials of munitions.
-
-
-
-
-III. THE INCREASE OF ORGANIZATION
-
-
-The stimulation of nationalism which has taken place in modern times
-is, however, due very largely to another factor, namely the increase
-of organization, which is of the very essence of industrialism.
-Wherever expensive fixed capital is required, organization on a large
-scale is of course necessary. In view of the economies of large scale
-production, organization in marketing also becomes of great importance.
-For some purposes, if not for all, many industries come to be organized
-nationally, so as to be in effect one business in each nation.
-
-Science has not only brought about the need of large organizations,
-but also the technical possibility of their existence. Without
-railways, telegraphs, and telephones, control from a centre is very
-difficult. In ancient empires, and in China down to modern times,
-provinces were governed by practically independent satraps or
-proconsuls, who were appointed by the central government, but decided
-almost all questions on their own initiative. If they displeased the
-sovereign, they could only be controlled by civil war, of which the
-issue was doubtful. Until the invention of the telegraph, ambassadors
-had a great measure of independence, since it was often necessary to
-act without waiting for orders from home. What applied in politics
-applied also in business: an organization controlled from the
-centre had to be very loosely knit, and to allow much autonomy to
-subordinates. Opinion as well as action was difficult to mould from a
-centre, and local variations marred the uniformity of party creeds.
-
-Now-a-days all this is changed. Telegraph, telephone, and wireless make
-it easy to transmit orders from a centre: railways and steamers make
-it easy to transport troops in case the orders are disobeyed. Modern
-methods of printing and advertising make it enormously cheaper to
-produce and distribute one newspaper with a large circulation than many
-with small circulations; consequently, in so far as the Press controls
-opinion, there is uniformity, and, in particular, there is uniformity
-of news. Elementary education, except in so far as religious
-denominations introduce variety, is conducted on a uniform pattern
-decided by the State, by means of teachers whom the State has trained,
-as far as possible, to imitate the regularity and mutual similarity
-of machines produced to standard. Thus the material and psychological
-conditions for a great intensity of organization have increased _pari
-passu_, but the basis of the whole development is scientific invention
-in the purely physical realm. Increased productivity has played its
-part, by making it possible to set apart more labour for propaganda,
-under which head are to be included advertisement, the cinema, the
-Press, education, politics, and religion. Broadcasting is a new method
-likely to acquire great potency as soon as people are satisfied that
-it is _not_ a method of propaganda.
-
-Political controversies, as Mr. Graham Wallas has pointed out, ought
-to be conducted in quantitative terms. If sociology were one of the
-sciences that had affected social institutions (which it is not), this
-would be the case. The dispute between anarchism and bureaucracy at
-present tends to take the form of one side maintaining that we want
-no organization, while the other maintains that we want as much as
-possible. A person imbued with the scientific spirit would hardly even
-examine these extreme positions. Some people think that we keep our
-rooms too hot for health, others that we keep them too cold. If this
-were a political question, one party would maintain that the best
-temperature is the absolute zero, the other that it is the melting
-point of iron. Those who maintained any intermediate position would be
-abused as timorous time-servers, concealed agents of the other side,
-men who ruined the enthusiasm of a sacred cause by tepid appeals to
-mere reason. Any man who had the courage to say that our rooms ought to
-be neither very hot nor very cold would be abused by both parties, and
-probably shot in No Man’s Land. Possibly some day politics may become
-more rational, but so far there is not the faintest indication of a
-change in this direction.
-
-To a rational mind, the question is not: Do we want organization or do
-we not? The question is: How much organization do we want, and where
-and when and of what kind? In spite of a temperamental leaning to
-anarchism, I am persuaded that an industrial world cannot maintain
-itself against internal disruptive forces without a great deal
-more organization than we have at present. It is not the amount of
-organization, but its kind and its purposes, that cause our troubles.
-But before tackling this question, let us pause for a moment to ask
-ourselves what is the measure of the intensity of organization in a
-given community.
-
-A man’s acts are partly determined by spontaneous impulse, partly by
-the conscious or unconscious effects of the various groups to which he
-belongs. A man who works (say) on a railway or in a mine is, in his
-working-hours almost entirely determined in his actions by those who
-direct the collective labour of which he forms part. If he decides
-to strike, his action is again not individual, but determined by his
-Union. When he votes for Parliament, party caucuses have limited his
-choice to one of two or three men, and party propaganda has induced
-him to accept _in toto_ one of the two or three blocks of opinions
-which form the rival party programmes. His choice between the parties
-may be individual, but it may also be determined by the action of
-some group, such as a trade union, which collectively supports one
-party. His newspaper-reading exposes him to great organized forces; so
-does the cinema, if he goes to it. His choice of a wife is probably
-spontaneous, except that he must choose a woman of his own class. But
-in the education of his children he is almost entirely powerless: they
-must have the education which is provided. Organization thus determines
-many vital things in his life. Compare him with a handicraftsman or
-peasant-proprietor who cannot read and does not have his children
-educated, and it becomes clear what is meant by saying that
-industrialism has increased the intensity of organization. To define
-this term, we must, I think, exclude the unconscious effects of groups,
-except as causes facilitating the conscious effects. We may define the
-intensity of organization to which a given individual is subject as
-the proportion of his acts which is determined by the orders or advice
-of some group, expressed through democratic decisions or executive
-officers. The intensity of organization in a community may then be
-defined as the average intensity for its several members.
-
-The intensity of organization is increased not only when a man belongs
-to more organizations, but also when the organizations to which he
-already belongs play a larger part in his life, as, for example, the
-State plays a larger part in war than in peace.
-
-Another matter which needs to be treated quantitatively is the
-degree of democracy, oligarchy, or monarchy in an organization. No
-organization belongs completely to any one of the three types. There
-must be executive officers, who will often in practice be able to
-decide policy, even if in theory they cannot do so. And even if their
-power depends upon persuasion, they may so completely control the
-relevant publicity that they can always rely upon a majority. The
-directors of a railway company, for instance, are to all intents and
-purposes uncontrolled by the shareholders, who have no adequate means
-of organizing an opposition if they should wish to do so. In America,
-a railroad president is almost a monarch. In party politics, the power
-of leaders, although it depends upon persuasion, continually increases
-as printed propaganda becomes more important. For these reasons, even
-where formal democracy increases, the real degree of democratic control
-tends to diminish, except on a few questions which rouse strong popular
-passions.
-
-The result of these causes is that, in consequence of scientific
-inventions which facilitate centralization and propaganda, groups
-become more organized, more disciplined, more group-conscious,
-and more docile to leaders. The effect of leaders on followers is
-increased, and the control of events by a few prominent personalities
-becomes more marked.
-
-In all this there would be nothing very tragic, but for the fact, with
-which science has nothing to do, that organization is almost wholly
-national. If men were actuated by the love of gain, as the older
-economists supposed, this would not be the case; the same causes which
-have led to national trusts would have led to international trusts.
-This has happened in a few instances, but not on a sufficiently wide
-scale to affect politics or economics very vitally. Rivalry is, with
-most well-to-do energetic people, a stronger motive than love of money.
-Successful rivalry requires organization of rival forces; the tendency
-is for a business such as oil, for example, to organize itself into two
-rival groups, between them covering the world. They might, of course,
-combine, and they would no doubt increase their wealth if they did
-so. But combination would take the zest out of life. The object of a
-football team, one might say, is to kick goals. If two rival teams
-combined, and kicked the ball alternately over the two goals, many more
-goals would be scored. Nevertheless no one suggests that this should
-be done, the object of a football team being not to kick goals but
-to win. So the object of a big business is not to make money, but to
-win in the contest with some other business. If there were no other
-business to be defeated, the whole thing would become uninteresting.
-This rivalry has attached itself to nationalism, and enlisted the
-support of the ordinary citizens of the countries concerned; they
-seldom know what it is that they are supporting, but, like the
-spectators at a football-match, they grow enthusiastic for their own
-side. The harm that is being done by science and industrialism is
-almost wholly due to the fact that, while they have proved strong
-enough to produce a _national_ organization of economic forces, they
-have not proved strong enough to produce an international organization.
-It is clear that political internationalism such as the League of
-Nations was supposed to inaugurate, will never be successful until we
-have economic internationalism, which would require, as a minimum, an
-agreement between various national organizations dividing among them
-the raw materials and markets of the world. This, however, can hardly
-be brought about while big business is controlled by men who are so
-rich as to have grown indifferent to money, and to be willing to risk
-enormous losses for the pleasure of rivalry.
-
-The increase of organization in the modern world has made the ideals
-of liberalism wholly inapplicable. Liberalism, from Montesquieu to
-President Wilson, was based upon the assumption of a number of more or
-less equal individuals or groups, with no differences so vital that
-they were willing to die sooner than compromise. It was supposed that
-there was to be free competition between individuals and between ideas.
-Experience has shown, however, that the existing economic system is
-incompatible with all forms of free competition except between States
-by means of armaments. I should wish, for my part, to preserve free
-competition between ideas, though not between individuals and groups,
-but this is only possible by means of what an old-fashioned liberal
-would regard as interferences with personal liberty. So long as the
-sources of economic power remain in private hands, there will be no
-liberty except for the few who control those sources.
-
-Such liberal ideals as free trade, free press, unbiased education,
-either already belong to the past or soon will do so. One of the
-triumphs of early liberalism in England was the establishment of
-parliamentary control over the army; this was the _casus belli_ in the
-Civil War, and was decided by the Revolution of 1688. It was effective
-so long as Parliament represented the same class from which army
-officers were drawn. This was still the case with the late Parliament,
-but may cease to be the case with the advent of a Labour Government.
-Russia, Hungary, Italy, Spain, and Bavaria have shown in recent years
-how frail democracy has become; east of the Rhine it lingers only
-in outlying regions. Constitutional control over armaments must,
-therefore, be regarded as another liberal principal which is rapidly
-becoming obsolete.
-
-It would seem probable that, in the next fifty years or so, we shall
-see a still further increase in the power of governments, and a
-tendency for governments to be such as are desired by the men who
-control armaments and raw materials. The forms of democracy may survive
-in western countries, since those who possess military and economic
-power can control education and the press, and therefore can usually
-secure a subservient democracy. Rival economic groups will presumably
-remain associated with rival nations, and will foster nationalism in
-order to recruit their football teams.
-
-There is, however, a hopeful element in the problem. The planet is
-of finite size, but the most efficient size for an organization
-is continually increased by new scientific inventions. The world
-becomes more and more of an economic unity. Before very long the
-technical conditions will exist for organizing the whole world as one
-producing and consuming unit. If, when that time comes, two rival
-groups contend for mastery, the victor may be able to introduce that
-single world-wide organization that is needed to prevent the mutual
-extermination of civilized nations. The world which would result
-would be, at first, very different from the dreams of either liberals
-or socialists; but it might grow less different with the lapse of
-time. There would be at first economic and political tyranny of
-the victors, a dread of renewed upheavals, and therefore a drastic
-suppression of liberty. But if the first half-dozen revolts were
-successfully repressed, the vanquished would give up hope, and accept
-the subordinate place assigned to them by the victors in the great
-world-trust. As soon as the holders of power felt secure, they would
-grow less tyrannical and less energetic. The motive of rivalry being
-removed, they would not work so hard as they do now, and would soon
-cease to exact such hard work from their subordinates. Life at first
-might be unpleasant, but it would at least be possible, which would be
-enough to recommend the system after a long period of warfare. Given a
-stable world-organization, economic and political, even if, at first,
-it rested upon nothing but armed force, the evils which now threaten
-civilization would gradually diminish, and a more thorough democracy
-than that which now exists might become possible. I believe that, owing
-to men’s folly, a world-government will only be established by force,
-and will therefore be at first cruel and despotic. But I believe that
-it is necessary for the preservation of a scientific civilization,
-and that, if once realized, it will gradually give rise to the other
-conditions of a tolerable existence.
-
-
-
-
-IV. THE ANTHROPOLOGICAL SCIENCES
-
-
-It remains to say something about the future effects of the
-anthropological sciences. This is of course extremely conjectural,
-because we do not know what discoveries will be made. The effect
-is likely to be far greater than we can now imagine, because these
-sciences are still in their infancy. I will, however, take a few points
-on which to hang conjectures. I do not wish to be supposed to be
-making prophecies: I am only suggesting possibilities which it may be
-instructive to consider.
-
-Birth-control is a matter of great importance, particularly in
-relation to the possibility of a world-government, which could hardly
-be stable if some nations increased their population much more
-rapidly than others. At present, birth-control is increasing in all
-civilized countries, though in most it is opposed by governments. This
-opposition is due partly to mere superstition and desire to conciliate
-the Catholic vote, partly to the desire for large armies and severe
-competition between wage-earners, so as to keep down wages. In spite
-of the opposition of governments, it seems probable that birth-control
-will lead to a stationary population in most white nations within the
-next fifty years. There can be no security that it will stop with a
-stationary population; it may go on to the point where the population
-diminishes.
-
-The increase in the practice of birth-control is an example of a
-process contrary to that seen in industrialism: it represents a
-victory of individual over collective passions. Collectively, Frenchmen
-desire that France should be populous, in order to be able to defeat
-her enemies in war. Individually, they desire that their own families
-should be small, in order to increase the inheritance of their children
-and to diminish the expense of education. The individual desire has
-triumphed over the collective desire, and even, in many cases, over
-religious scruples. In this case, as in most others, the individual
-desire is less harmful to the world than the collective desire: the man
-who acts from pure selfishness does less damage than the man who is
-actuated by “public spirit.” For, since medicine and sanitation have
-diminished the infant death-rate, the only checks to over-population
-that remain (apart from birth-control) are war and famine. So long
-as this continues to be the case, the world must either have a nearly
-stationary population, or employ war to produce famine. The latter
-method, which is that favoured by opponents of birth-control, has been
-adopted on a large scale since 1914; it is however somewhat wasteful.
-We require a certain number of cattle and sheep, and we take steps
-to secure the right number. If we were as indifferent about them as
-we are about human beings, we should produce far too many, and cause
-the surplus to die by the slow misery of under-feeding. Farmers would
-consider this plan extravagant, and humanitarians would consider it
-cruel. But where human beings are concerned, it is considered the only
-proper course, and works advocating any other are confiscated by the
-police if they are intelligible to those whom they concern.
-
-It must be admitted, however, that there are certain dangers. Before
-long the population may actually diminish. This is already happening
-in the most intelligent sections of the most intelligent nations;
-government opposition to birth-control propaganda gives a biological
-advantage to stupidity, since it is chiefly stupid people whom
-governments succeed in keeping in ignorance. Before long, birth-control
-may become nearly universal among the white races; it will then not
-deteriorate their quality, but only diminish their numbers, at a time
-when uncivilized races are still prolific and are preserved from a high
-death-rate by white science.
-
-This situation will lead to a tendency--already shown by the
-French--to employ more prolific races as mercenaries. Governments will
-oppose the teaching of birth-control among Africans, for fear of losing
-recruits. The result will be an immense numerical inferiority of the
-white races, leading probably to their extermination in a mutiny of
-mercenaries. If, however, a world-government is established, it may see
-the desirability of making subject races also less prolific, and may
-permit mankind to solve the population question. This is another reason
-for desiring a world-government.
-
-Passing from quantity to quality of population, we come to the
-question of eugenics. We may perhaps assume that, if people grow less
-superstitious, governments will acquire the right to sterilize those
-who are not considered desirable as parents. This power will be
-used, at first, to diminish imbecility, a most desirable object. But
-probably, in time, opposition to the government will be taken to prove
-imbecility, so that rebels of all kinds will be sterilized. Epileptics,
-consumptives, dipsomaniacs and so on will gradually be included; in
-the end, there will be a tendency to include all who fail to pass the
-usual school examinations. The result will be to increase the average
-intelligence; in the long run, it may be greatly increased. But
-probably the effect upon really exceptional intelligence will be bad.
-Mr. Micawber, who was Dickens’s father, would hardly have been regarded
-as a desirable parent. How many imbeciles ought to outweigh one Dickens
-I do not profess to know.
-
-Eugenics has, of course, more ambitious possibilities in a more
-distant future. It may aim not only at eliminating undesired types,
-but at increasing desired types. Moral standards may alter so as to
-make it possible for one man to be the sire of a vast progeny by
-many different mothers. When men of science envisage a possibility
-of this kind, they are prone to a type of fallacy which is common
-also in other directions. They imagine that a reform inaugurated by
-men of science would be administered as men of science would wish,
-by men similar in outlook to those who have advocated it. In like
-manner women who advocated votes for women used to imagine that the
-woman voter of the future would resemble the ardent feminist who won
-her the vote; and socialist leaders imagine that a socialist State
-would be administered by idealistic reformers like themselves. These
-are, of course, delusions; a reform, once achieved, is handed over
-to the average citizen. So, if eugenics reached the point where it
-could increase desired types, it would not be the types desired by
-present-day eugenists that would be increased, but rather the types
-desired by the average official. Prime Ministers, Bishops, and others
-whom the State considers desirable might become the fathers of half the
-next generation. Whether this would be an improvement it is not for me
-to say, as I have no hope of ever becoming either a Bishop or a Prime
-Minister.
-
-If we knew enough about heredity to determine, within limits, what
-sort of population we would have, the matter would of course be in the
-hands of State officials, presumably elderly medical men. Whether they
-would really be preferable to Nature I do not feel sure. I suspect that
-they would breed a subservient population, convenient to rulers but
-incapable of initiative. However, it may be that I am too sceptical of
-the wisdom of officials.
-
-The effects of psychology on practical life may in time become very
-great. Already advertisers in America employ eminent psychologists
-to instruct them in the technique of producing irrational belief;
-such men may, when they have grown more proficient, be very useful in
-persuading the democracy that governments are wise and good. Then,
-again, there are the psychological tests of intelligence, as applied
-to recruits for the American army during the war. I am very sceptical
-of the possibility of testing anything except average intelligence
-by such methods, and I think that, if they were widely adopted, they
-would probably lead to many persons of great artistic capacity being
-classified as morons. The same thing would have happened to some
-first-rate mathematicians. Specialized ability not infrequently goes
-with general disability, but this would not be shown by the kind of
-tests which psychologists recommended to the American government.
-
-More sensational than tests of intelligence is the possibility of
-controlling the emotional life through the secretions of the ductless
-glands. It will be possible to make people choleric or timid, strongly
-or weakly sexed, and so on, as may be desired. Differences of emotional
-disposition seem to be chiefly due to secretions of the ductless
-glands, and therefore controllable by injections or by increasing
-or diminishing the secretions. Assuming an oligarchic organization
-of society, the State could give to the children of holders of power
-the disposition required for command, and to the children of the
-proletariat the disposition required for obedience. Against the
-injections of the State physicians the most eloquent Socialist oratory
-would be powerless. The only difficulty would be to combine this
-submissiveness with the necessary ferocity against external enemies;
-but I do not doubt that official science would be equal to the task.
-
-It is not necessary, when we are considering political consequences,
-to pin our faith to the particular theories of the ductless glands,
-which may blow over, like other theories. All that is essential in
-our hypothesis is the belief that physiology will in time find ways of
-controlling emotion, which it is scarcely possible to doubt. When that
-day comes, we shall have the emotions desired by our rulers, and the
-chief business of elementary education will be to produce the desired
-disposition, no longer by punishment or moral precept, but by the far
-surer method of injection or diet. The men who will administer this
-system will have a power beyond the dreams of the Jesuits, but there
-is no reason to suppose that they will have more sense than the men
-who control education to-day. Technical scientific knowledge does not
-make men sensible in their aims, and administrators in the future, will
-be presumably no less stupid and no less prejudiced than they are at
-present.
-
-
-
-
-CONCLUSION
-
-
-It may seem as though I had been at once gloomy and frivolous in some
-of my prognostications. I will end, however, with the serious lesson
-which seems to me to result. Men sometimes speak as though the progress
-of science must necessarily be a boon to mankind, but that, I fear,
-is one of the comfortable nineteenth-century delusions which our more
-disillusioned age must discard. Science enables the holders of power
-to realize their purposes more fully than they could otherwise do. If
-their purposes are good, this is a gain; if they are evil, it is a
-loss. In the present age, it seems that the purposes of the holders
-of power are in the main evil, in the sense that they involve a
-diminution, in the world at large, of the things men are agreed in
-thinking good. Therefore, at present, science does harm by increasing
-the power of rulers. Science is no substitute for virtue; the heart is
-as necessary for a good life as the head.
-
-If men were rational in their conduct, that is to say, if they acted
-in the way most likely to bring about the ends that they deliberately
-desire, intelligence would be enough to make the world almost a
-paradise. In the main, what is in the long run advantageous to one
-man is also advantageous to another. But men are actuated by passions
-which distort their view; feeling an impulse to injure others, they
-persuade themselves that it is to their interest to do so. They
-will not, therefore, act in the way which is in fact to their own
-interest unless they are actuated by generous impulses which make
-them indifferent to their own interest. This is why the heart is as
-important as the head. By the “heart” I mean, for the moment, the
-sum-total of kindly impulses. Where they exist, science helps them
-to be effective; where they are absent, science only makes men more
-cleverly diabolic.
-
-It may be laid down as a general principle to which there are few
-exceptions that, when people are mistaken as to what is to their own
-interest, the course they believe to be wise is more harmful to others
-than the course that really is wise. There are innumerable examples of
-men making fortunes because, on moral grounds, they did something which
-they believed to be contrary to their own interests. For instance,
-among early Quakers there were a number of shopkeepers, who adopted
-the practice of asking no more for their goods than they were willing
-to accept, instead of bargaining with each customer, as everybody else
-did. They adopted this practice because they held it to be a lie to
-ask more than they would take. But the convenience to customers was so
-great that everybody came to their shops and they grew rich. (I forget
-where I read this, but if my memory serves me it was in some reliable
-source). The same policy _might_ have been adopted from shrewdness,
-but in fact no one was sufficiently shrewd. Our unconscious is more
-malevolent than it pays us to be; therefore the people who do most
-completely what is in fact to their interest are those who, on moral
-grounds, do what they believe to be against their interest.
-
-For this reason, it is of the greatest importance to inquire whether
-any method of strengthening kindly impulses exists. I have no doubt
-that their strength or weakness depends upon discoverable physiological
-causes; let us assume that it depends upon the glands. If so, an
-international secret society of physiologists could bring about the
-millennium by kidnapping, on a given day, all the rulers of the world,
-and injecting into their blood some substance which would fill them
-with benevolence towards their fellow-creatures. Suddenly M. Poincare
-would wish well to Ruhr miners, Lord Curzon to Indian nationalists,
-Mr. Smuts to the natives of what was German South West Africa, the
-American Government to its political prisoners and its victims in Ellis
-Island. But alas, the physiologists would first have to administer the
-love-philtre to themselves before they would undertake such a task.
-Otherwise, they would prefer to win titles and fortunes by injecting
-military ferocity into recruits. And so we come back to the old
-dilemma: only kindliness can save the world, and even if we knew how to
-produce kindliness we should not do so unless we were already kindly.
-Failing that, it seems that the solution which the Houynhnms adopted
-towards the Yahoos, namely extermination, is the only one; apparently
-the Yahoos are bent on applying it to each other.
-
-We may sum up this discussion in a few words. Science has not given
-men more self-control, more kindliness, or more power of discounting
-their passions in deciding upon a course of action. It has given
-communities more power to indulge their collective passions, but,
-by making society more organic, it has diminished the part played
-by private passions. Men’s collective passions are mainly evil; far
-the strongest of them are hatred and rivalry directed towards other
-groups. Therefore at present all that gives men power to indulge their
-collective passions is bad. That is why science threatens to cause the
-destruction of our civilization. The only solid hope seems to lie in
-the possibility of world-wide domination by one group, say the United
-States, leading to the gradual formation of an orderly economic and
-political world-government. But perhaps, in view of the sterility of
-the Roman Empire, the collapse of our civilization would in the end be
-preferable to this alternative.
-
-
-
-
-Transcriber’s Notes
-
-
-Punctuation, hyphenation, and spelling were made consistent when a
-predominant preference was found in the original book; otherwise they
-were not changed.
-
-Simple typographical errors were corrected; unbalanced quotation
-marks were remedied when the change was obvious, and otherwise left
-unbalanced.
-
-Table of Contents added by Transcriber.
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-<div style='text-align:center; font-size:1.2em; font-weight:bold'>The Project Gutenberg eBook of Icarus, by Bertrand Russell</div>
-
-<div style='display:block; margin:1em 0'>
-This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United States and
-most other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no restrictions
-whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms
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-country where you are located before using this eBook.
-</div>
-
-<p style='display:block; margin-top:1em; margin-bottom:0; margin-left:2em; text-indent:-2em'>Title: Icarus</p>
-<p style='display:block; margin-top:0; margin-bottom:1em; margin-left:2em; text-indent:0;'>or, The Future of Science</p>
-
-<div style='display:block; margin-top:1em; margin-bottom:1em; margin-left:2em; text-indent:-2em'>Author: Bertrand Russell</div>
-
-<div style='display:block; margin:1em 0'>Release Date: September 5, 2021 [eBook #66225]</div>
-
-<div style='display:block; margin:1em 0'>Language: English</div>
-
-<div style='display:block; margin:1em 0'>Character set encoding: UTF-8</div>
-
-<div style='display:block; margin-left:2em; text-indent:-2em'>Produced by: Tim Lindell, Charlie Howard, and the Online Distributed Proofreading Team at https://www.pgdp.net (This file was produced from images generously made available by The Internet Archive/American Libraries.)</div>
-
-<div style='margin-top:2em; margin-bottom:4em'>*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK ICARUS ***</div>
-
-<div class="figcenter" style="max-width: 25em;">
-  <img src="images/cover.jpg" width="1458" height="2196" alt="cover" />
-</div>
-
-<h1 class="vspace"><span class="gesperrt">ICARUS</span><br />
-<span class="xsmall">OR</span><br />
-THE FUTURE OF SCIENCE</h1>
-
-<div class="chapter">
-
-<div class="bbox">
-<p class="center bold larger wspace">BY THE SAME AUTHOR</p>
-
-<hr />
-
-<p class="center xlarge bold wspace">The A.B.C. OF ATOMS</p>
-
-<p class="p0 center bold wspace">12mo., cloth $2.00</p>
-
-<p class="in0 narrow">In the last few years the
-study of Radioactivity has
-brought about amazing advances
-in our knowledge of
-the properties and nature of
-the Atom; and into this fascinating
-wonderland of the
-infinitely small yet infinitely
-complex and infinitely full of
-energy, Mr. Russell introduces
-us.</p>
-
-<hr />
-
-<p class="in0 bold center larger">
-E. P. DUTTON &amp; COMPANY<br />
-<span class="wspace">681 Fifth Avenue, New York</span>
-</p>
-</div></div>
-
-<div class="newpage p4 center vspace wspace">
-<p class="xxlarge">
-<span class="gesperrt">ICARUS</span><br />
-
-<span class="xxsmall">OR</span><br />
-
-The Future of Science</p>
-
-<p class="p2">BY<br />
-
-<span class="larger">BERTRAND RUSSELL</span></p>
-
-<div class="figcenter" style="max-width: 8em;">
-  <img src="images/i_001.png" width="461" height="433" alt="logo" />
-</div>
-
-<p class="p2"><span class="smcap">New York</span><br />
-<span class="larger">E. P. DUTTON &amp; COMPANY</span><br />
-<span class="smcap">681 Fifth Avenue</span>
-</p>
-
-<hr />
-
-<p class="newpage p2">
-Copyright, 1924<br />
-By E. P. Dutton &amp; Company</p>
-
-<p><i>All Rights Reserved</i></p>
-
-<p>First printing, April, 1924<br />
-Second printing, June, 1924<br />
-Third printing, October, 1924<br />
-Fourth printing, December, 1924<br />
-Fifth Printing, December, 1924<br />
-Sixth Printing, June, 1925<br />
-Seventh Printing, June, 1925</p>
-
-<p class="p4"><span class="bt">Printed in the United States of America</span></p>
-</div>
-
-<hr />
-<h2>CONTENTS</h2>
-
-<table id="toc" summary="Contents">
-<tr class="small">
-  <td colspan="2"> </td>
-  <td class="tdr">PAGE</td>
-</tr>
-<tr>
-  <td class="tdr top">I.</td>
-  <td class="tdl">Introductory</td>
-  <td class="tdr"><a href="#toclink_5">5</a></td>
-</tr>
-<tr>
-  <td class="tdr top">II.</td>
-  <td class="tdl">Effects of the Physical Sciences</td>
-  <td class="tdr"><a href="#toclink_15">15</a></td>
-</tr>
-<tr>
-  <td class="tdr top">III.</td>
-  <td class="tdl">The Increase of Organization</td>
-  <td class="tdr"><a href="#toclink_23">23</a></td>
-</tr>
-<tr>
-  <td class="tdr top">IV.</td>
-  <td class="tdl">The Anthropological Sciences</td>
-  <td class="tdr"><a href="#toclink_43">43</a></td>
-</tr>
-<tr>
-  <td> </td>
-  <td class="tdl">Conclusion</td>
-  <td class="tdr"><a href="#toclink_57">57</a></td>
-</tr>
-</table>
-
-<hr />
-
-<div id="toclink_5" class="chapter">
-<p><span class="pagenum" id="Page_5">5</span></p>
-<h2 class="nobreak vspace" id="ICARUS">ICARUS<br />
-
-<span class="small">OR</span><br />
-
-THE FUTURE OF SCIENCE</h2>
-
-<h2 class="nobreak" id="I_INTRODUCTORY">I. INTRODUCTORY</h2>
-</div>
-
-<p>Mr. Haldane’s <cite>Daedalus</cite> has set forth
-an attractive picture of the future as it
-may become through the use of
-scientific discoveries to promote human
-happiness. Much as I should like to
-agree with his forecast, a long experience
-of statesmen and governments has
-made me somewhat sceptical. I am
-compelled to fear that science will be
-used to promote the power of dominant
-groups, rather than to make men happy.
-Icarus, having been taught to fly by his
-father Daedalus, was destroyed by his
-rashness. I fear that the same fate<span class="pagenum" id="Page_6">6</span>
-may overtake the populations whom
-modern men of science have taught to
-fly. Some of the dangers inherent in the
-progress of science while we retain our
-present political and economic institutions
-are set forth in the following
-pages.</p>
-
-<p>This subject is so vast that it is impossible,
-within a limited space, to do
-more than outline some of its aspects.
-The world in which we live differs
-profoundly from that of Queen Anne’s
-time, and this difference is mainly
-attributable to science. That is to say,
-the difference would be very much less
-than it is but for various scientific
-discoveries, but resulted from those
-discoveries by the operation of ordinary
-human nature. The changes that have
-been brought about have been partly<span class="pagenum" id="Page_7">7</span>
-good, partly bad; whether, in the end,
-science will prove to have been a
-blessing or a curse to mankind, is to
-my mind, still a doubtful question.</p>
-
-<p>A science may affect human life in
-two different ways. On the one hand,
-without altering men’s passions or their
-general outlook, it may increase their
-power of gratifying their desires. On
-the other hand, it may operate through
-an effect upon the imaginative conception
-of the world, the theology or
-philosophy which is accepted in practice
-by energetic men. The latter is a
-fascinating study, but I shall almost
-wholly ignore it, in order to bring my
-subject within a manageable compass.
-I shall confine myself almost wholly to
-the effect of science in enabling us to
-gratify our passions more freely, which<span class="pagenum" id="Page_8">8</span>
-has hitherto been far the more important
-of the two.</p>
-
-<p>From our point of view, we may
-divide the sciences into three groups:
-physical, biological, and anthropological.
-In the physical group I include
-chemistry, and broadly speaking
-any science concerned with the properties
-of matter apart from life. In
-the anthropological group I include
-all studies specially concerned with
-man: human physiology and psychology
-(between which no sharp line can be
-drawn), anthropology, history, sociology,
-and economics. All these studies
-can be illuminated by considerations
-drawn from biology; for instance,
-Rivers threw a new light on parts of
-economics by adducing facts about
-landed property among birds during<span class="pagenum" id="Page_9">9</span>
-the breeding season. But in spite of
-their connection with biology—a connection
-which is likely to grow closer
-as time goes on—they are broadly
-distinguished from biology by their
-methods and data, and deserve to be
-grouped apart, at any rate in a sociological
-inquiry.</p>
-
-<p>The effect of the biological sciences,
-so far, has been very small. No doubt
-Darwinism and the idea of evolution
-affected men’s imaginative outlook;
-arguments were derived in favour of
-free competition, and also of nationalism.
-But these effects were of the sort that
-I propose not to consider. It is probable
-that great effects will come from these
-sciences sooner or later. Mendelism
-might have revolutionized agriculture,
-and no doubt some similar theory will<span class="pagenum" id="Page_10">10</span>
-do so sooner or later. Bacteriology may
-enable us to exterminate our enemies
-by disease. The study of heredity may
-in time make eugenics an exact science,
-and perhaps we shall in a later age be
-able to determine at will the sex of our
-children. This would probably lead to
-an excess of males, involving a complete
-change in family institutions. But
-these speculations belong to the future.
-I do not propose to deal with the
-possible future effects of biology, both
-because my knowledge of biology is very
-limited, and because the subject has
-been admirably treated by Mr. Haldane.<a id="FNanchor_1" href="#Footnote_1" class="fnanchor">1</a></p>
-
-<div class="footnote">
-
-<p><a id="Footnote_1" href="#FNanchor_1" class="fnanchor">1</a> See his <cite>Daedalus, or Science and the Future</cite>.</p>
-
-</div>
-
-<p>The anthropological sciences are those
-from which, <i xml:lang="la" lang="la">a priori</i>, we might have
-expected the greatest social effects, but<span class="pagenum" id="Page_11">11</span>
-hitherto this has not proved to be the
-case, partly because these sciences are
-mostly still at an early stage of development.
-Even economics has not so far
-had much effect. Where it has seemed
-to have, this is because it advocated
-what was independently desired.
-Hitherto, the most effective of the
-anthropological sciences has been medicine,
-through its influence on sanitation
-and public health, and through the fact
-that it has discovered how to deal with
-malaria and yellow fever. Birth-control
-is also a very important social fact
-which comes into this category. But
-although the future effect of the anthropological
-sciences (to which I shall
-return presently) is illimitable, the
-effect up to the present has been confined
-within fairly narrow limits.</p>
-
-<p><span class="pagenum" id="Page_12">12</span></p>
-
-<p>One general observation to begin
-with. Science has increased man’s
-control over nature, and might therefore
-be supposed likely to increase his
-happiness and well-being. This would
-be the case if men were rational, but in
-fact they are bundles of passions and
-instincts. An animal species in a stable
-environment, if it does not die out,
-acquires an equilibrium between its
-passions and the conditions of its life.
-If the conditions are suddenly altered,
-the equilibrium is upset. Wolves in a
-state of nature have difficulty in getting
-food, and therefore need the stimulus
-of a very insistent hunger. The result
-is that their descendants, domestic dogs,
-over-eat if they are allowed to do so.
-When a certain amount of something is
-useful, and the difficulty of obtaining it<span class="pagenum" id="Page_13">13</span>
-is diminished, instinct will usually lead
-an animal to excess in the new circumstances.
-The sudden change produced
-by science has upset the balance between
-our instincts and our circumstances,
-but in directions not sufficiently
-noticed. Over-eating is not a serious
-danger, but over-fighting is. The
-human instincts of power and rivalry,
-like the dog’s wolfish appetite will need
-to be artificially curbed, if industrialism
-is to succeed.</p>
-
-<hr />
-
-<div id="toclink_15" class="chapter">
-<p><span class="pagenum" id="Page_15">15</span></p>
-
-<h2 class="nobreak" id="II_EFFECTS_OF_THE_PHYSICAL">II. EFFECTS OF THE PHYSICAL
-SCIENCES</h2>
-</div>
-
-<p>Much the greatest part of the changes
-which science has made in social life is
-due to the physical sciences, as is
-evident when we consider that they
-brought about the industrial revolution.
-This is a trite topic, about which I shall
-say as little as my subject permits.
-There are, however, some points which
-must be made.</p>
-
-<p>First, industrialism, still has great
-parts of the earth’s surface to conquer.
-Russia and India are very imperfectly
-industrialized; China hardly at all.
-In South America there is room for
-immense development. One of the<span class="pagenum" id="Page_16">16</span>
-effects of industrialism is to make the
-world an economic unit: its ultimate
-consequences will be very largely due
-to this fact. But before the world
-can be effectively organized as a unit,
-it will probably be necessary to develop
-industrially all the regions capable of
-development that are at present backward.
-The effects of industrialism
-change as it becomes more wide-spread;
-this must be remembered in any attempt
-to argue from its past to its future.</p>
-
-<p>The second point about industrialism
-is that it increases the productivity of
-labour, and thus makes more luxuries
-possible. At first, in England, the chief
-luxury achieved was a larger population
-with an actual lowering of the standard
-of life. Then came a golden age when
-wages increased, hours of labour<span class="pagenum" id="Page_17">17</span>
-diminished, and simultaneously the
-middle-class grew more prosperous.
-That was while Great Britain was still
-supreme. With the growth of foreign
-industrialism, a new epoch began.
-Industrial organizations have seldom
-succeeded in becoming world-wide, and
-have consequently become national.
-Competition, formerly between individual
-firms, is now mainly between
-nations, and is therefore conducted by
-methods quite different from those
-contemplated by the classical
-economists.</p>
-
-<p>Modern industrialism is a struggle
-between nations for two things, markets
-and raw materials, as well as for the
-sheer pleasure of dominion. The labour
-which is set free from providing the
-necessaries of life tends to be more and<span class="pagenum" id="Page_18">18</span>
-more absorbed by national rivalry.
-There are first the armed forces of the
-State; then those who provide
-munitions of war, from the raw minerals
-up to the finished product; then the
-diplomatic and consular services; then
-the teachers of patriotism in schools;
-then the Press. All of these perform
-other functions as well, but the chief
-purpose is to minister to international
-competition. As another class whose
-labours are devoted to the same end,
-we must add a considerable proportion
-of the men of science. These men
-invent continually more elaborate
-methods of attack and defence. The
-net result of their labours is to diminish
-the proportion of the population that
-can be put into the fighting line, since
-more are required for munitions. This<span class="pagenum" id="Page_19">19</span>
-might seem a boon, but in fact war is
-now-a-days primarily against the
-civilian population, and in a defeated
-country they are liable to suffer just
-as much as the soldiers.</p>
-
-<p>It is science above all that has
-determined the importance of raw
-materials in international competition.
-Coal and iron and oil, especially, are
-the bases of power, and thence of
-wealth. The nation which possesses
-them, and has the industrial skill required
-to utilize them in war, can
-acquire markets by armed force, and
-levy tribute upon less fortunate nations.
-Economists have underestimated the
-part played by military prowess in the
-acquisition of wealth. The landed
-aristocracies of Europe were, in origin,
-warlike invaders. Their defeat by the<span class="pagenum" id="Page_20">20</span>
-bourgeoisie in the French Revolution,
-and the fear which this generated in
-the Duke of Wellington, facilitated the
-rise of the middle class. The wars of
-the eighteenth century decided that
-England was to be richer than France.
-The traditional economist’s rules for
-the distribution of wealth hold only
-when men’s actions are governed by
-law, i.e. when most people think the
-issue unimportant. The issues that
-people have considered vital have been
-decided by civil wars or wars between
-nations. And for the present, owing to
-science, the art of war consists in
-possessing coal, iron, oil, and the
-industrial skill to work them. For the
-sake of simplicity, I omit other raw
-materials, since they do not affect the
-essence of our problem.</p>
-
-<p><span class="pagenum" id="Page_21">21</span></p>
-
-<p>We may say, therefore, speaking very
-generally, that men have used the increased
-productivity which they owe
-to science for three chief purposes in
-succession: first, to increase the
-population; then, to raise the standard
-of comfort; and, finally, to provide
-more energy to war. This last result
-has been chiefly brought about by
-competition for markets, which led to
-competition for raw materials, especially
-the raw materials of munitions.</p>
-
-<hr />
-
-<div id="toclink_23" class="chapter">
-<p><span class="pagenum" id="Page_23">23</span></p>
-
-<h2 class="nobreak" id="III_THE_INCREASE_OF">III. THE INCREASE OF
-ORGANIZATION</h2>
-</div>
-
-<p>The stimulation of nationalism which
-has taken place in modern times is,
-however, due very largely to another
-factor, namely the increase of organization,
-which is of the very essence of
-industrialism. Wherever expensive
-fixed capital is required, organization
-on a large scale is of course necessary.
-In view of the economies of large scale
-production, organization in marketing
-also becomes of great importance.
-For some purposes, if not for all, many
-industries come to be organized nationally,
-so as to be in effect one business
-in each nation.</p>
-
-<p>Science has not only brought about<span class="pagenum" id="Page_24">24</span>
-the need of large organizations, but also
-the technical possibility of their existence.
-Without railways, telegraphs,
-and telephones, control from a centre
-is very difficult. In ancient empires,
-and in China down to modern times,
-provinces were governed by practically
-independent satraps or proconsuls, who
-were appointed by the central government,
-but decided almost all questions
-on their own initiative. If they displeased
-the sovereign, they could only
-be controlled by civil war, of which the
-issue was doubtful. Until the invention
-of the telegraph, ambassadors had a
-great measure of independence, since
-it was often necessary to act without
-waiting for orders from home. What
-applied in politics applied also in business:
-an organization controlled from<span class="pagenum" id="Page_25">25</span>
-the centre had to be very loosely knit,
-and to allow much autonomy to
-subordinates. Opinion as well as action
-was difficult to mould from a centre,
-and local variations marred the
-uniformity of party creeds.</p>
-
-<p>Now-a-days all this is changed.
-Telegraph, telephone, and wireless make
-it easy to transmit orders from a centre:
-railways and steamers make it easy to
-transport troops in case the orders are
-disobeyed. Modern methods of printing
-and advertising make it enormously
-cheaper to produce and distribute one
-newspaper with a large circulation than
-many with small circulations; consequently,
-in so far as the Press controls
-opinion, there is uniformity, and, in
-particular, there is uniformity of news.
-Elementary education, except in so far<span class="pagenum" id="Page_26">26</span>
-as religious denominations introduce
-variety, is conducted on a uniform
-pattern decided by the State, by means
-of teachers whom the State has trained,
-as far as possible, to imitate the regularity
-and mutual similarity of machines
-produced to standard. Thus the
-material and psychological conditions
-for a great intensity of organization
-have increased <i xml:lang="la" lang="la">pari passu</i>, but the basis
-of the whole development is scientific
-invention in the purely physical realm.
-Increased productivity has played its
-part, by making it possible to set apart
-more labour for propaganda, under
-which head are to be included advertisement,
-the cinema, the Press, education,
-politics, and religion. Broadcasting is
-a new method likely to acquire great
-potency as soon as people are satisfied<span class="pagenum" id="Page_27">27</span>
-that it is <em>not</em> a method of propaganda.</p>
-
-<p>Political controversies, as Mr. Graham
-Wallas has pointed out, ought to be
-conducted in quantitative terms. If
-sociology were one of the sciences that
-had affected social institutions (which
-it is not), this would be the case. The
-dispute between anarchism and bureaucracy
-at present tends to take the form
-of one side maintaining that we want no
-organization, while the other maintains
-that we want as much as possible. A
-person imbued with the scientific spirit
-would hardly even examine these extreme
-positions. Some people think
-that we keep our rooms too hot for
-health, others that we keep them too
-cold. If this were a political question,
-one party would maintain that the best
-temperature is the absolute zero, the<span class="pagenum" id="Page_28">28</span>
-other that it is the melting point of
-iron. Those who maintained any intermediate
-position would be abused as
-timorous time-servers, concealed agents
-of the other side, men who ruined the
-enthusiasm of a sacred cause by tepid
-appeals to mere reason. Any man who
-had the courage to say that our rooms
-ought to be neither very hot nor very
-cold would be abused by both parties,
-and probably shot in No Man’s Land.
-Possibly some day politics may become
-more rational, but so far there is not the
-faintest indication of a change in this
-direction.</p>
-
-<p>To a rational mind, the question is
-not: Do we want organization or do we
-not? The question is: How much
-organization do we want, and where and
-when and of what kind? In spite of a<span class="pagenum" id="Page_29">29</span>
-temperamental leaning to anarchism,
-I am persuaded that an industrial
-world cannot maintain itself against
-internal disruptive forces without a
-great deal more organization than we
-have at present. It is not the amount
-of organization, but its kind and its
-purposes, that cause our troubles. But
-before tackling this question, let us
-pause for a moment to ask ourselves
-what is the measure of the intensity of
-organization in a given community.</p>
-
-<p>A man’s acts are partly determined
-by spontaneous impulse, partly by the
-conscious or unconscious effects of the
-various groups to which he belongs.
-A man who works (say) on a railway or
-in a mine is, in his working-hours
-almost entirely determined in his actions
-by those who direct the collective<span class="pagenum" id="Page_30">30</span>
-labour of which he forms part. If he
-decides to strike, his action is again not
-individual, but determined by his
-Union. When he votes for Parliament,
-party caucuses have limited his choice
-to one of two or three men, and party
-propaganda has induced him to accept
-<i xml:lang="la" lang="la">in toto</i> one of the two or three blocks of
-opinions which form the rival party
-programmes. His choice between the
-parties may be individual, but it may
-also be determined by the action of
-some group, such as a trade union, which
-collectively supports one party. His
-newspaper-reading exposes him to
-great organized forces; so does the
-cinema, if he goes to it. His choice of a
-wife is probably spontaneous, except
-that he must choose a woman of his own
-class. But in the education of his
-children he is almost entirely powerless:<span class="pagenum" id="Page_31">31</span>
-they must have the education which is
-provided. Organization thus determines
-many vital things in his life.
-Compare him with a handicraftsman or
-peasant-proprietor who cannot read
-and does not have his children educated,
-and it becomes clear what is meant by
-saying that industrialism has increased
-the intensity of organization. To
-define this term, we must, I think,
-exclude the unconscious effects of
-groups, except as causes facilitating
-the conscious effects. We may define
-the intensity of organization to which
-a given individual is subject as the
-proportion of his acts which is determined
-by the orders or advice of some
-group, expressed through democratic
-decisions or executive officers. The
-intensity of organization in a community
-may then be defined as the<span class="pagenum" id="Page_32">32</span>
-average intensity for its several
-members.</p>
-
-<p>The intensity of organization is
-increased not only when a man belongs
-to more organizations, but also when
-the organizations to which he already
-belongs play a larger part in his life,
-as, for example, the State plays a
-larger part in war than in peace.</p>
-
-<p>Another matter which needs to be
-treated quantitatively is the degree of
-democracy, oligarchy, or monarchy in
-an organization. No organization
-belongs completely to any one of the
-three types. There must be executive
-officers, who will often in practice be
-able to decide policy, even if in theory
-they cannot do so. And even if their
-power depends upon persuasion, they
-may so completely control the relevant
-publicity that they can always rely<span class="pagenum" id="Page_33">33</span>
-upon a majority. The directors of a
-railway company, for instance, are to
-all intents and purposes uncontrolled
-by the shareholders, who have no
-adequate means of organizing an
-opposition if they should wish to do so.
-In America, a railroad president is
-almost a monarch. In party politics,
-the power of leaders, although it
-depends upon persuasion, continually
-increases as printed propaganda becomes
-more important. For these
-reasons, even where formal democracy
-increases, the real degree of democratic
-control tends to diminish, except on a
-few questions which rouse strong popular
-passions.</p>
-
-<p>The result of these causes is that, in
-consequence of scientific inventions
-which facilitate centralization and propaganda,
-groups become more organized,<span class="pagenum" id="Page_34">34</span>
-more disciplined, more group-conscious,
-and more docile to leaders. The effect
-of leaders on followers is increased, and
-the control of events by a few prominent
-personalities becomes more marked.</p>
-
-<p>In all this there would be nothing
-very tragic, but for the fact, with which
-science has nothing to do, that organization
-is almost wholly national. If men
-were actuated by the love of gain, as
-the older economists supposed, this
-would not be the case; the same causes
-which have led to national trusts would
-have led to international trusts. This
-has happened in a few instances, but
-not on a sufficiently wide scale to
-affect politics or economics very vitally.
-Rivalry is, with most well-to-do
-energetic people, a stronger motive
-than love of money. Successful rivalry
-requires organization of rival forces;<span class="pagenum" id="Page_35">35</span>
-the tendency is for a business such as
-oil, for example, to organize itself into
-two rival groups, between them covering
-the world. They might, of course,
-combine, and they would no doubt
-increase their wealth if they did so.
-But combination would take the zest
-out of life. The object of a football
-team, one might say, is to kick goals.
-If two rival teams combined, and
-kicked the ball alternately over the two
-goals, many more goals would be
-scored. Nevertheless no one suggests
-that this should be done, the object of
-a football team being not to kick goals
-but to win. So the object of a big
-business is not to make money, but to
-win in the contest with some other
-business. If there were no other
-business to be defeated, the whole thing
-would become uninteresting. This<span class="pagenum" id="Page_36">36</span>
-rivalry has attached itself to nationalism,
-and enlisted the support of the
-ordinary citizens of the countries concerned;
-they seldom know what it is
-that they are supporting, but, like the
-spectators at a football-match, they
-grow enthusiastic for their own side.
-The harm that is being done by science
-and industrialism is almost wholly due
-to the fact that, while they have proved
-strong enough to produce a <em>national</em>
-organization of economic forces, they
-have not proved strong enough to
-produce an international organization.
-It is clear that political internationalism
-such as the League of Nations was
-supposed to inaugurate, will never be
-successful until we have economic
-internationalism, which would require,
-as a minimum, an agreement between
-various national organizations dividing<span class="pagenum" id="Page_37">37</span>
-among them the raw materials and
-markets of the world. This, however,
-can hardly be brought about while big
-business is controlled by men who are
-so rich as to have grown indifferent to
-money, and to be willing to risk enormous
-losses for the pleasure of rivalry.</p>
-
-<p>The increase of organization in the
-modern world has made the ideals of
-liberalism wholly inapplicable. Liberalism,
-from Montesquieu to President
-Wilson, was based upon the assumption
-of a number of more or less equal
-individuals or groups, with no differences
-so vital that they were willing to
-die sooner than compromise. It was
-supposed that there was to be free
-competition between individuals and
-between ideas. Experience has shown,
-however, that the existing economic
-system is incompatible with all forms<span class="pagenum" id="Page_38">38</span>
-of free competition except between
-States by means of armaments. I
-should wish, for my part, to preserve
-free competition between ideas, though
-not between individuals and groups,
-but this is only possible by means of
-what an old-fashioned liberal would
-regard as interferences with personal
-liberty. So long as the sources of
-economic power remain in private
-hands, there will be no liberty except
-for the few who control those sources.</p>
-
-<p>Such liberal ideals as free trade, free
-press, unbiased education, either already
-belong to the past or soon will do so.
-One of the triumphs of early liberalism
-in England was the establishment of
-parliamentary control over the army;
-this was the <i xml:lang="la" lang="la">casus belli</i> in the Civil War,
-and was decided by the Revolution of
-1688. It was effective so long as<span class="pagenum" id="Page_39">39</span>
-Parliament represented the same class
-from which army officers were drawn.
-This was still the case with the late
-Parliament, but may cease to be the
-case with the advent of a Labour
-Government. Russia, Hungary, Italy,
-Spain, and Bavaria have shown in
-recent years how frail democracy has
-become; east of the Rhine it lingers
-only in outlying regions. Constitutional
-control over armaments must, therefore,
-be regarded as another liberal principal
-which is rapidly becoming obsolete.</p>
-
-<p>It would seem probable that, in the
-next fifty years or so, we shall see a
-still further increase in the power of
-governments, and a tendency for
-governments to be such as are desired
-by the men who control armaments
-and raw materials. The forms of
-democracy may survive in western<span class="pagenum" id="Page_40">40</span>
-countries, since those who possess
-military and economic power can control
-education and the press, and therefore
-can usually secure a subservient
-democracy. Rival economic groups
-will presumably remain associated with
-rival nations, and will foster nationalism
-in order to recruit their football teams.</p>
-
-<p>There is, however, a hopeful element
-in the problem. The planet is of
-finite size, but the most efficient size
-for an organization is continually increased
-by new scientific inventions.
-The world becomes more and more of
-an economic unity. Before very long
-the technical conditions will exist for
-organizing the whole world as one
-producing and consuming unit. If,
-when that time comes, two rival groups
-contend for mastery, the victor may be
-able to introduce that single world-wide<span class="pagenum" id="Page_41">41</span>
-organization that is needed to prevent
-the mutual extermination of civilized
-nations. The world which would result
-would be, at first, very different from
-the dreams of either liberals or socialists;
-but it might grow less different with the
-lapse of time. There would be at first
-economic and political tyranny of the
-victors, a dread of renewed upheavals,
-and therefore a drastic suppression of
-liberty. But if the first half-dozen
-revolts were successfully repressed, the
-vanquished would give up hope, and
-accept the subordinate place assigned
-to them by the victors in the great
-world-trust. As soon as the holders of
-power felt secure, they would grow less
-tyrannical and less energetic. The
-motive of rivalry being removed, they
-would not work so hard as they do now,
-and would soon cease to exact such<span class="pagenum" id="Page_42">42</span>
-hard work from their subordinates.
-Life at first might be unpleasant, but
-it would at least be possible, which
-would be enough to recommend the
-system after a long period of warfare.
-Given a stable world-organization, economic
-and political, even if, at first, it
-rested upon nothing but armed force,
-the evils which now threaten civilization
-would gradually diminish, and a more
-thorough democracy than that which
-now exists might become possible.
-I believe that, owing to men’s folly, a
-world-government will only be established
-by force, and will therefore be
-at first cruel and despotic. But I believe
-that it is necessary for the preservation
-of a scientific civilization, and that, if
-once realized, it will gradually give rise
-to the other conditions of a tolerable
-existence.</p>
-
-<hr />
-
-<div id="toclink_43" class="chapter">
-<p><span class="pagenum" id="Page_43">43</span></p>
-
-<h2 class="nobreak" id="IV_THE_ANTHROPOLOGICAL">IV. THE ANTHROPOLOGICAL
-SCIENCES</h2>
-</div>
-
-<p>It remains to say something about
-the future effects of the anthropological
-sciences. This is of course extremely
-conjectural, because we do not know
-what discoveries will be made. The
-effect is likely to be far greater than we
-can now imagine, because these sciences
-are still in their infancy. I will, however,
-take a few points on which to hang
-conjectures. I do not wish to be
-supposed to be making prophecies:
-I am only suggesting possibilities which
-it may be instructive to consider.</p>
-
-<p>Birth-control is a matter of great
-importance, particularly in relation to
-the possibility of a world-government,
-which could hardly be stable if some<span class="pagenum" id="Page_44">44</span>
-nations increased their population much
-more rapidly than others. At present,
-birth-control is increasing in all civilized
-countries, though in most it is opposed
-by governments. This opposition is
-due partly to mere superstition and
-desire to conciliate the Catholic vote,
-partly to the desire for large armies
-and severe competition between wage-earners,
-so as to keep down wages.
-In spite of the opposition of governments,
-it seems probable that birth-control
-will lead to a stationary population
-in most white nations within the
-next fifty years. There can be no
-security that it will stop with a stationary
-population; it may go on to the point
-where the population diminishes.</p>
-
-<p>The increase in the practice of birth-control
-is an example of a process
-contrary to that seen in industrialism:<span class="pagenum" id="Page_45">45</span>
-it represents a victory of individual
-over collective passions. Collectively,
-Frenchmen desire that France should
-be populous, in order to be able to
-defeat her enemies in war. Individually,
-they desire that their own families
-should be small, in order to increase
-the inheritance of their children and to
-diminish the expense of education. The
-individual desire has triumphed over
-the collective desire, and even, in many
-cases, over religious scruples. In this
-case, as in most others, the individual
-desire is less harmful to the world than
-the collective desire: the man who acts
-from pure selfishness does less damage
-than the man who is actuated by
-“public spirit.” For, since medicine
-and sanitation have diminished the
-infant death-rate, the only checks to
-over-population that remain (apart<span class="pagenum" id="Page_46">46</span>
-from birth-control) are war and famine.
-So long as this continues to be the case,
-the world must either have a nearly
-stationary population, or employ war
-to produce famine. The latter method,
-which is that favoured by opponents
-of birth-control, has been adopted on a
-large scale since 1914; it is however
-somewhat wasteful. We require a
-certain number of cattle and sheep,
-and we take steps to secure the right
-number. If we were as indifferent
-about them as we are about human
-beings, we should produce far too many,
-and cause the surplus to die by the slow
-misery of under-feeding. Farmers
-would consider this plan extravagant,
-and humanitarians would consider it
-cruel. But where human beings are
-concerned, it is considered the only
-proper course, and works advocating<span class="pagenum" id="Page_47">47</span>
-any other are confiscated by the police
-if they are intelligible to those whom
-they concern.</p>
-
-<p>It must be admitted, however, that
-there are certain dangers. Before long
-the population may actually diminish.
-This is already happening in the most
-intelligent sections of the most intelligent
-nations; government opposition
-to birth-control propaganda gives a
-biological advantage to stupidity, since
-it is chiefly stupid people whom governments
-succeed in keeping in ignorance.
-Before long, birth-control may become
-nearly universal among the white
-races; it will then not deteriorate
-their quality, but only diminish their
-numbers, at a time when uncivilized
-races are still prolific and are preserved
-from a high death-rate by white science.</p>
-
-<p>This situation will lead to a tendency—already<span class="pagenum" id="Page_48">48</span>
-shown by the French—to
-employ more prolific races as mercenaries.
-Governments will oppose the
-teaching of birth-control among Africans,
-for fear of losing recruits. The
-result will be an immense numerical
-inferiority of the white races, leading
-probably to their extermination in a
-mutiny of mercenaries. If, however, a
-world-government is established, it may
-see the desirability of making subject
-races also less prolific, and may permit
-mankind to solve the population
-question. This is another reason for
-desiring a world-government.</p>
-
-<p>Passing from quantity to quality of
-population, we come to the question of
-eugenics. We may perhaps assume
-that, if people grow less superstitious,
-governments will acquire the right to
-sterilize those who are not considered<span class="pagenum" id="Page_49">49</span>
-desirable as parents. This power will
-be used, at first, to diminish imbecility,
-a most desirable object. But probably,
-in time, opposition to the government
-will be taken to prove imbecility, so
-that rebels of all kinds will be sterilized.
-Epileptics, consumptives, dipsomaniacs
-and so on will gradually be included;
-in the end, there will be a tendency to
-include all who fail to pass the usual
-school examinations. The result will
-be to increase the average intelligence;
-in the long run, it may be greatly increased.
-But probably the effect upon
-really exceptional intelligence will be
-bad. Mr. Micawber, who was Dickens’s
-father, would hardly have been regarded
-as a desirable parent. How
-many imbeciles ought to outweigh one
-Dickens I do not profess to know.</p>
-
-<p>Eugenics has, of course, more ambitious<span class="pagenum" id="Page_50">50</span>
-possibilities in a more distant
-future. It may aim not only at
-eliminating undesired types, but at
-increasing desired types. Moral standards
-may alter so as to make it
-possible for one man to be the sire of a
-vast progeny by many different mothers.
-When men of science envisage a
-possibility of this kind, they are prone
-to a type of fallacy which is common
-also in other directions. They imagine
-that a reform inaugurated by men of
-science would be administered as men
-of science would wish, by men similar
-in outlook to those who have advocated
-it. In like manner women who advocated
-votes for women used to imagine
-that the woman voter of the
-future would resemble the ardent
-feminist who won her the vote; and
-socialist leaders imagine that a socialist<span class="pagenum" id="Page_51">51</span>
-State would be administered by idealistic
-reformers like themselves. These
-are, of course, delusions; a reform,
-once achieved, is handed over to the
-average citizen. So, if eugenics reached
-the point where it could increase
-desired types, it would not be the types
-desired by present-day eugenists that
-would be increased, but rather the
-types desired by the average official.
-Prime Ministers, Bishops, and others
-whom the State considers desirable
-might become the fathers of half the
-next generation. Whether this would
-be an improvement it is not for me to
-say, as I have no hope of ever becoming
-either a Bishop or a Prime Minister.</p>
-
-<p>If we knew enough about heredity
-to determine, within limits, what sort
-of population we would have, the
-matter would of course be in the hands<span class="pagenum" id="Page_52">52</span>
-of State officials, presumably elderly
-medical men. Whether they would
-really be preferable to Nature I do not
-feel sure. I suspect that they would
-breed a subservient population, convenient
-to rulers but incapable of
-initiative. However, it may be that I am
-too sceptical of the wisdom of officials.</p>
-
-<p>The effects of psychology on practical
-life may in time become very great.
-Already advertisers in America employ
-eminent psychologists to instruct them
-in the technique of producing irrational
-belief; such men may, when they have
-grown more proficient, be very useful
-in persuading the democracy that
-governments are wise and good. Then,
-again, there are the psychological tests
-of intelligence, as applied to recruits for
-the American army during the war.
-I am very sceptical of the possibility of<span class="pagenum" id="Page_53">53</span>
-testing anything except average intelligence
-by such methods, and I think
-that, if they were widely adopted, they
-would probably lead to many persons
-of great artistic capacity being classified
-as morons. The same thing would have
-happened to some first-rate mathematicians.
-Specialized ability not infrequently
-goes with general disability,
-but this would not be shown by the
-kind of tests which psychologists recommended
-to the American government.</p>
-
-<p>More sensational than tests of intelligence
-is the possibility of controlling
-the emotional life through the secretions
-of the ductless glands. It will be possible
-to make people choleric or timid, strongly
-or weakly sexed, and so on, as may be
-desired. Differences of emotional disposition
-seem to be chiefly due to secretions
-of the ductless glands, and therefore<span class="pagenum" id="Page_54">54</span>
-controllable by injections or by
-increasing or diminishing the secretions.
-Assuming an oligarchic organization of
-society, the State could give to the
-children of holders of power the disposition
-required for command, and to
-the children of the proletariat the
-disposition required for obedience.
-Against the injections of the State
-physicians the most eloquent Socialist
-oratory would be powerless. The only
-difficulty would be to combine this
-submissiveness with the necessary ferocity
-against external enemies; but
-I do not doubt that official science
-would be equal to the task.</p>
-
-<p>It is not necessary, when we are
-considering political consequences, to
-pin our faith to the particular theories
-of the ductless glands, which may blow
-over, like other theories. All that is<span class="pagenum" id="Page_55">55</span>
-essential in our hypothesis is the belief
-that physiology will in time find ways
-of controlling emotion, which it is
-scarcely possible to doubt. When that
-day comes, we shall have the emotions
-desired by our rulers, and the chief
-business of elementary education will
-be to produce the desired disposition,
-no longer by punishment or moral
-precept, but by the far surer method
-of injection or diet. The men who will
-administer this system will have a
-power beyond the dreams of the
-Jesuits, but there is no reason to suppose
-that they will have more sense than the
-men who control education to-day.
-Technical scientific knowledge does not
-make men sensible in their aims, and
-administrators in the future, will be
-presumably no less stupid and no less
-prejudiced than they are at present.</p>
-
-<hr />
-
-<div id="toclink_57" class="chapter">
-<p><span class="pagenum" id="Page_57">57</span></p>
-
-<h2 class="nobreak" id="CONCLUSION">CONCLUSION</h2>
-</div>
-
-<p>It may seem as though I had been at
-once gloomy and frivolous in some of
-my prognostications. I will end, however,
-with the serious lesson which seems
-to me to result. Men sometimes speak
-as though the progress of science must
-necessarily be a boon to mankind, but
-that, I fear, is one of the comfortable
-nineteenth-century delusions which our
-more disillusioned age must discard.
-Science enables the holders of power to
-realize their purposes more fully than
-they could otherwise do. If their
-purposes are good, this is a gain; if
-they are evil, it is a loss. In the present
-age, it seems that the purposes of the
-holders of power are in the main evil,<span class="pagenum" id="Page_58">58</span>
-in the sense that they involve a diminution,
-in the world at large, of the things
-men are agreed in thinking good.
-Therefore, at present, science does
-harm by increasing the power of rulers.
-Science is no substitute for virtue; the
-heart is as necessary for a good life as
-the head.</p>
-
-<p>If men were rational in their conduct,
-that is to say, if they acted in the way
-most likely to bring about the ends that
-they deliberately desire, intelligence
-would be enough to make the world
-almost a paradise. In the main, what
-is in the long run advantageous to one
-man is also advantageous to another.
-But men are actuated by passions which
-distort their view; feeling an impulse
-to injure others, they persuade themselves
-that it is to their interest to do so.
-They will not, therefore, act in the way<span class="pagenum" id="Page_59">59</span>
-which is in fact to their own interest
-unless they are actuated by generous
-impulses which make them indifferent
-to their own interest. This is why the
-heart is as important as the head. By
-the “heart” I mean, for the moment,
-the sum-total of kindly impulses. Where
-they exist, science helps them to be
-effective; where they are absent,
-science only makes men more cleverly
-diabolic.</p>
-
-<p>It may be laid down as a general
-principle to which there are few exceptions
-that, when people are mistaken
-as to what is to their own interest, the
-course they believe to be wise is more
-harmful to others than the course that
-really is wise. There are innumerable
-examples of men making fortunes
-because, on moral grounds, they did
-something which they believed to be<span class="pagenum" id="Page_60">60</span>
-contrary to their own interests. For
-instance, among early Quakers there
-were a number of shopkeepers, who
-adopted the practice of asking no more
-for their goods than they were willing
-to accept, instead of bargaining with
-each customer, as everybody else did.
-They adopted this practice because
-they held it to be a lie to ask more than
-they would take. But the convenience
-to customers was so great that everybody
-came to their shops and they grew
-rich. (I forget where I read this, but
-if my memory serves me it was in some
-reliable source). The same policy <em>might</em>
-have been adopted from shrewdness,
-but in fact no one was sufficiently
-shrewd. Our unconscious is more
-malevolent than it pays us to be;
-therefore the people who do most
-completely what is in fact to their<span class="pagenum" id="Page_61">61</span>
-interest are those who, on moral
-grounds, do what they believe to be
-against their interest.</p>
-
-<p>For this reason, it is of the greatest
-importance to inquire whether any
-method of strengthening kindly impulses
-exists. I have no doubt that
-their strength or weakness depends
-upon discoverable physiological causes;
-let us assume that it depends upon the
-glands. If so, an international secret
-society of physiologists could bring
-about the millennium by kidnapping,
-on a given day, all the rulers of the
-world, and injecting into their blood
-some substance which would fill them
-with benevolence towards their fellow-creatures.
-Suddenly M. Poincare would
-wish well to Ruhr miners, Lord Curzon
-to Indian nationalists, Mr. Smuts to
-the natives of what was German South<span class="pagenum" id="Page_62">62</span>
-West Africa, the American Government
-to its political prisoners and its victims
-in Ellis Island. But alas, the physiologists
-would first have to administer the
-love-philtre to themselves before they
-would undertake such a task. Otherwise,
-they would prefer to win titles
-and fortunes by injecting military
-ferocity into recruits. And so we come
-back to the old dilemma: only kindliness
-can save the world, and even if we
-knew how to produce kindliness we
-should not do so unless we were already
-kindly. Failing that, it seems that the
-solution which the Houynhnms adopted
-towards the Yahoos, namely extermination,
-is the only one; apparently the
-Yahoos are bent on applying it to each
-other.</p>
-
-<p>We may sum up this discussion in a
-few words. Science has not given men<span class="pagenum" id="Page_63">63</span>
-more self-control, more kindliness, or
-more power of discounting their passions
-in deciding upon a course of action.
-It has given communities more power
-to indulge their collective passions,
-but, by making society more organic,
-it has diminished the part played by
-private passions. Men’s collective
-passions are mainly evil; far the
-strongest of them are hatred and
-rivalry directed towards other groups.
-Therefore at present all that gives men
-power to indulge their collective
-passions is bad. That is why science
-threatens to cause the destruction of
-our civilization. The only solid hope
-seems to lie in the possibility of world-wide
-domination by one group, say the
-United States, leading to the gradual
-formation of an orderly economic and
-political world-government. But<span class="pagenum" id="Page_64">64</span>
-perhaps, in view of the sterility of the
-Roman Empire, the collapse of our
-civilization would in the end be
-preferable to this alternative.</p>
-
-<div class="chapter"><div class="transnote">
-<h2 class="nobreak" id="Transcribers_Notes">Transcriber’s Notes</h2>
-
-<p>Punctuation, hyphenation, and spelling were made
-consistent when a predominant preference was found
-in the original book; otherwise they were not changed.</p>
-
-<p>Simple typographical errors were corrected; unbalanced
-quotation marks were remedied when the change was
-obvious, and otherwise left unbalanced.</p>
-
-<p>Table of Contents added by Transcriber.</p>
-</div></div>
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