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diff --git a/.gitattributes b/.gitattributes new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d7b82bc --- /dev/null +++ b/.gitattributes @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +*.txt text eol=lf +*.htm text eol=lf +*.html text eol=lf +*.md text eol=lf diff --git a/LICENSE.txt b/LICENSE.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6312041 --- /dev/null +++ b/LICENSE.txt @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +This eBook, including all associated images, markup, improvements, +metadata, and any other content or labor, has been confirmed to be +in the PUBLIC DOMAIN IN THE UNITED STATES. + +Procedures for determining public domain status are described in +the "Copyright How-To" at https://www.gutenberg.org. + +No investigation has been made concerning possible copyrights in +jurisdictions other than the United States. Anyone seeking to utilize +this eBook outside of the United States should confirm copyright +status under the laws that apply to them. diff --git a/README.md b/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b7bc429 --- /dev/null +++ b/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ +Project Gutenberg (https://www.gutenberg.org) public repository for +eBook #63122 (https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/63122) diff --git a/old/63122-8.txt b/old/63122-8.txt deleted file mode 100644 index e1f1679..0000000 --- a/old/63122-8.txt +++ /dev/null @@ -1,964 +0,0 @@ -The Project Gutenberg EBook of The National Geographic Magazine, Vol. -III., PP. 41-52, May 1, 1891, by Adolphus Washington Greely - -This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United States and most -other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no restrictions -whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of -the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at -www.gutenberg.org. If you are not located in the United States, you'll have -to check the laws of the country where you are located before using this ebook. - -Title: The National Geographic Magazine, Vol. III., PP. 41-52, May 1, 1891 - -Author: Adolphus Washington Greely - -Release Date: September 5, 2020 [EBook #63122] - -Language: English - -Character set encoding: ISO-8859-1 - -*** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC MAGAZINE, MAY 1, 1891 *** - - - - -Produced by Ron Swanson - - - - - -VOL. III, PP. 41-52, MAY 1, 1891 - -THE NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC MAGAZINE - - - - -GEOGRAPHY OF THE AIR - -ANNUAL REPORT BY VICE-PRESIDENT - -A. W. GREELY - - - - -WASHINGTON - -PUBLISHED BY THE NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC SOCIETY - -Price 25 Cents. - - -{41} - - -VOL. III, PP. 41-52, MAY 1, 1891 - -THE NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC MAGAZINE - - - - -GEOGRAPHY OF THE AIR. - -ANNUAL REPORT BY VICE-PRESIDENT - -A. W. GREELY. - -(_Presented to the Society January 23, 1891._) - - -In fulfilling the duties growing out of his official position in -connection with this Society, your Vice-President of the Geography of -the Air has been so closely occupied with executive and other official -duties devolving upon him as to preclude his giving that amount of -time and labor to this annual report that the subject merits. Indeed, -no report would be submitted this year had it not seemed better to -insure a continuity of these annual addresses, even if one of them -might not be up to the high standard which should be maintained for -them. - -It must have impressed every general reader of scientific journals -that the past year has been marked by the publication of an unusual -number of controversial articles relating entirely or in part to -meteorology. Some of the discussions of this subject appear to be in -the nature of speculation, which, by good authority, is defined to be -"chiefly the work of the imagination, and has little to do with -realities." The status of the meteorological discussion which has been -going on for some time seems to be this: A number of men, applying -themselves to investigation in separate branches or stages of the same -science, are attempting to reconcile their views, which, based as they -are upon entirely different processes of investigation, are not -entirely accordant. Some, at least, of these writers are still -apparently groping in the preliminary, the "natural history" stage of -the {42} science of meteorology, while one alone stands as the -exponent of the "natural philosophy" of meteorology. - -To me it seems that it could not have failed to impress any interested -reader who has followed the late publications on the convectional -theory that, in order to clear the ground for definite meteorological -discussion, it is necessary to determine the exact meaning of the -various technical terms employed by the various writers. Whether from -looseness of verbiage originally or from the not infrequent habit of -disputants when worsted to change their ground by claiming to be -misunderstood, we find that some writers are unwilling either to stand -by their first criticisms or to openly abandon them; they prefer to -explain away their defective statements and gradually shift around to -positions almost diametrically opposed to those originally assumed. - -The generally accepted theory as to cyclones attributes their -initiatory formation to an unequal distribution of temperature with -resulting mean diminution of pressure, and the movement of the air -from places of high to places of low pressure, the lower air ascending -with a gyratory motion, while air particles moving from opposite -directions form couples which produce rotation. When energetic motions -raise the ascending air to such a height that the temperature, cooled -dynamically in ascending, goes below the dew-point, then the great -store of latent heat thereby set free becomes, it is assumed, the main -source of energy in maintaining the upward convectional movement. The -subsidiary causes are attributed to the diminution of pressure on the -collapse of the vapor, and also to the direct absorption of the sun's -heat at the upper cloud surface. - -In anticyclones a slow gyratory descending motion of the air is -assumed. Ferrel considers the cyclone and anticyclone one system, and -believes that air flowing into the cyclone from a "high" at the ground -passes out into the higher atmospheric strata. - -Dr. Hann has put forth the hypothesis that the genesis of cyclones and -anticyclones may be sought in the general atmospheric circulation -through a difference of temperature of the air from the equator to the -poles. He speaks of a congestion in the upper or anti-trade winds, -where the air heaps up to a great height, this being the cause of the -anticyclones; and he maintains that the low temperature of the "high" -is due to ground radiation, and that no part of the high pressure is -the result of low temperature. - -{43} To this hypothesis of Dr. Hann, ascribing the genesis of storms -to the general circulation of the atmosphere, no application of the -laws of dynamics has yet been made with a view of developing it into -an acceptable "theory." If it should be established it does not follow -that it will in any way affect the truth of the commonly accepted -"convectional system," which, founded as it is on the well-known laws -of thermo-dynamics, is not likely to be successfully assailed. There -may be an improved nomenclature for the laws of statics and dynamics -that will express to the mind more clearly the relation of cause and -effect; but until the advance of scientific research modifies the -present formulation of these laws the convectional theory will be -generally accepted as giving the true interpretation of all the -phenomena to which it could be applied. - -Professor Russell, in commenting on this subject, expresses the -opinion that the low temperature is due to the convective interchange -of air at a low temperature in the upper strata with air of a high -temperature in lower strata, such convective interchange tending to -make the whole body of air of a temperature coinciding throughout with -the adiabatic rate of upward diminution, with the consequent result of -rendering the air at the surface of the earth cooler than previously -and the upper air warmer. When the upward diminution of temperature is -less than the adiabatic rate, in the forced circulation of air -crossing a mountain ridge, there occurs the dynamic heating which is -observed in the case of the foehn winds. The low temperature near the -earth he does not believe could ever be entirely produced by nocturnal -radiation from the ground. The high pressure, in his opinion, is -largely the result of greater density due to low temperature, as is -very clearly indicated by the fact that the temperature is almost -inversely proportional to the pressure, and that the places of lower -temperature substantially coincide with the places of greatest -pressure. - -In advancing hypotheses and inviting discussion the real object is, or -at least should be, to discover the essential cause or causes which -determine the initial formation and subsequent maintenance and -progress of the cyclone. Some real progress in charting lines of equal -density seems to have been made by M. Nils Ekholm following Professor -Abbe's system of "isostaths," one using the term density, the other -buoyancy. Professor Abbe also introduces the factor of the orographic -gradient, but the {44} latter is simply the measure of a resistance. -The objection to this form of determination is this, that it is a -measure of mass only. The density of two masses of air is determined -to be the same; but as the density may result from two entirely -different causes, their physical relations cannot be fully expressed -in units of gravity. The methods of Professor Abbe and of M. Nils -Ekholm undoubtedly give good results, partly from the coincidence that -humidity usually varies directly as the temperature. - -The method proposed by Captain James Allen in 1888, which is briefly -described in appendix 24 to the annual report of the Chief Signal -Officer for 1890, appears to afford the means of more clearly -expressing the relations that exist between the mass of the atmosphere -and the forces available for the generation and movement of storms. -Its tentative application at the Signal Office has anticipated and -explained storm movements not indicated or accounted for by the usual -methods. - -As pertinent to this matter, there is instanced a study of the -progress of thunder-storms made by Berg, who observes that the line of -storm front in every case investigated made a decidedly conspicuous -bend into the densest part of the lines representing the absolute -humidity. - - * * * * * - -Scientific conditions have so changed that in these later years it -becomes more and more difficult for investigators to publish any work -which may be characterized as _magnum opus_. Under this head, however, -must be classed Buchan's important memoir on the distribution of -atmospheric pressure, temperature, and wind direction over the whole -world; a large quarto volume, which contains much new material. It has -been incorporated with the results of observations during the -Challenger expedition, in which series this work appears. The isobars -and isotherms for each month in the year for the whole earth are -charted on Mercator's projection, and for the northern hemisphere on a -chart constructed on a polar projection. In connection with an -abstruse subject, to which Buchan has paid so much attention, the -diurnal variation of pressure, he opines from the Challenger -observations that the oscillations are due to the heat taken from the -solar rays directly in passing through the air and instantaneously -communicated through the whole mass from top to bottom by heating and -evaporation of water on innumerable dust particles. The afternoon -minimum, he thinks, is caused by upward currents removing a portion of -the lower air. Marked {45} differences exist between the continental -and insular types, since on islands the morning minimum is unusually -large and the afternoon minimum so small as to disappear, while in -continental types the reverse conditions obtain. - - * * * * * - -Werner Von Siemens, in answering Sprung's criticism on his general air -currents, after repelling certain statements of Sprung, describes his -own theories, which are worthy of restating: - -1. All winds are caused by the disturbances of indifferent -equilibrium, and the motion of the air is to restore equilibrium. - -2. These disturbances are caused through overheating of the layers of -air near the surface of the earth by insolation, through unsymmetrical -cooling of the higher layers by radiation, and through the heaping up -of air masses caused by obstructions. - -3. The disturbances are adjusted by ascending currents, wherein the -particular species of acceleration occurs in which the increase of -velocity is proportioned to the diminution of pressure. - -4. The upward currents correspond to equally great descending currents -in which there is a decrease of velocity corresponding to the -acceleration in the upward velocity. - -5. If the region of overheating of the air is limited locally, a local -upward current reaching to the highest layers of air arises, and -whirlwinds appear with interior spirally ascending currents and -outside similar spiral descending currents. The result of this is -dispersion of the superfluous heat of the lower air by which the -adiabatic equilibrium is disturbed throughout the whole column of air -taking part in the whirling motion. - -6. In case the region of disturbance of the indifferent (or adiabatic) -equilibrium is very extensive, as, for example, the whole of the -tropical zone, the temperature adjustment can no longer be -accomplished by locally ascending whirls, and a whirling current must -then arise involving the whole atmosphere. The same conditions apply -to these as to the local whirls of accelerated upward motion and -retarded descent in such a manner that the velocity at different -altitudes arising from heat converted to work is approximately -proportional to the prevailing pressure at the place. - -7. In consequence of the meridional motion produced and maintained by -conversion of heat into work, the whole atmosphere in every latitude -must rotate with approximately the same absolute velocity. Thus the -meridional currents produced by overheating combine with the currents -embracing the whole {46} wind system of the earth, with the result of -disseminating the excess of temperature and humidity of the torrid -zone over the temperate and arctic zones, thereby producing the -prevailing winds. - -8. This is accomplished by the production of alternating local -depressions and elevations of barometric pressure by the disturbance -of indifferent equilibrium in the upper layers of the air. - -9. "Highs" and "lows" are a consequence of the temperatures and -velocities of the upper currents. - -Whence it follows that the most important problem of meteorology is -the investigation of the causes and consequences of the disturbance of -indifferent equilibrium of the atmosphere, and the weightiest problem -in weather prediction is the investigation of the geographical origin -or extraction of air currents pursuing their course above us toward -the pole. - - * * * * * - -In Pomortsew's treatise on synoptic meteorology, published in Russia, -there are full chapters on prediction of weather, whether from -synoptic charts, from observations at a single place, or from -prognostics of great length based on researches on the succession of -warm and cold months. It also contains Pomortsew's investigations on -the types of pressure distribution in eastern Europe, as well as the -average path of cyclones. - - * * * * * - -The favorable opportunities afforded by the Eiffel tower have been -utilized by French meteorologists. M. Angot states that during the -anti-cyclone of November, 1889, the temperature on the tower was -several degrees higher than below. The change of weather set in -earlier, with a strong and warm wind, on the tower, while the air at -the ground was cold and calm. Wind observations on the tower show a -ratio of 3.1 at that height (303 meters) to the velocity at a height -of 21 meters, as determined from 101 days' observations, which, -remarkable at such a small height, discloses the peculiarity of high -mountain stations. - - * * * * * - -Partsch, writing on evidence of climatic changes within historical -times in the Mediterranean region, remarks that too much attention has -been given to changes in crops, the introduction of plants, and the -limits of domestic animals. He states that existing information as to -the harvest time of ancient days indicates an unchanged climate, while -the land-locked lakes in Tunis, which afford the best evidence on -rainfall variation, show absolutely no climatic change. - - * * * * * - -{47} Van Bebber, in writing on weather types, claims that a line drawn -from the center of a cyclone perpendicularly in the direction of the -heaviest gradients will in general be perpendicular to the subsequent -path of the "low," and that these lows leave high temperature on the -right hand. - - * * * * * - -Hill, in describing hail-stones and tornadoes in India, explains them -on the principle of the great diminution of temperature upwards in the -air, but a critic, in combating this theory, objects to the high and -low stations selected to show temperatures. - - * * * * * - -The so-called "weather plant" of the tropics has passed through the -process of investigation with the usual result. It appears surprising -that in these days it should be believed that any plant or animal can -foretell weather 48 hours in advance, particularly after considering -the vast amount of proof as to the enormous rapidity with which -weather-changes progress from day to day. - - * * * * * - -Hugo Meyer, in treating the precipitation of central Germany for the -ten years ending in 1885, pertinently remarks that the same -significance does not attach to the same rainfall for all places and -different times of the year, for this average value is not the amount -most likely to fall in any particular interval of time, since there is -a limit to the extent of the negative deviations on one side--that is, -0 or no rainfall, while on the positive side there is no limit. The -most probable depth of rainfall, therefore, is less than the mean -value, the preponderance of negative over positive deviations being -about 10 per cent. and sometimes as great as 20 per cent. - - * * * * * - -Professor W. M. Davis wrote an interesting review of Professor -Ferrel's popular treatise on the winds, published a year ago. -Commenting on the review, the editor of _Meteorologische Zeltschrift_, -Vienna, remarks on a very important omission in the treatise, namely, -the absence of all reference to the diurnal variation of the wind and -the many interesting relations it bears to other phenomena, a notable -omission in a treatise specially devoted to winds. The treatment of -the monsoon wind and its relation to the general circulation is highly -commended by the editor, and indicated as being all new. - - * * * * * - -Your Vice-President has elsewhere expressed his opinion that monsoon -winds, applying the term by liberal construction to signify winds -which recur with returning seasons, cannot with {48} any degree of -correctness be asserted to prevail in the United States. It is true -that the prevailing surface winds of the greater part of the United -States come from the western quadrants--that is, between southwest and -northwest--and so are in substantial harmony with the general -atmospheric circulation as shown by the upper-wind currents of Mount -Washington (from the northwest) and Pike's peak (from the southwest). -But, apart from the easterly and northeasterly trades on the Florida -coast, it appears from the records that in no case for any -considerable section of the country do 50 per cent. of the winds blow, -for any consecutive number of months, either from any single point or -from two neighboring points of the compass. Occasionally, however, the -local configuration of the country is such that winds are drawn up or -down valleys, and, being diverted from their free and proper -direction, the wind in such cases follows the trend of the valley or -depression. - - * * * * * - -In general your Vice-President would feel inclined to refer only -casually to the work proceeding from the Bureau over which he has the -honor to preside, but this year has been marked by special researches -and investigations of general interest. As the work of investigation -has been entrusted to the professors of the Signal Service, due credit -should not be refused them from their own official chief. - -Special reference should be made to the work of Professor Charles F. -Marvin, whose successful experiments on wind pressures and velocities -have attracted the attention of experts both in Europe and in this -country. Unfortunately there was available only a small sum (about one -hundred dollars) for the expense of experiments, but with this petty -sum, supplemented by his ingenuity, Professor Marvin has very -satisfactorily determined the coëfficients of the various forms of the -Robinson anemometer, with which instrument the velocity of the wind is -very generally determined. Following these investigations, the Royal -Meteorological Society of England reopened the question, which, after -a costly set of experiments with results widely differing from those -of Professor Marvin, had been considered closed. - -The general results of these researches, which are believed to be -sufficiently definite for general questions, are not only prized by -the scientist, but they are of value to the engineer and the builder. -Indeed, to all interested in costly structures or extended works -liable to harm from wind pressures, the factor of safety is {49} a -matter of no small pecuniary importance. These experiments show that, -as was formerly believed to be the case, the wind pressure varies as -the square of the velocity of the wind, expressed in miles per hour; -but a most important fact has developed, namely, that the pressure in -pounds per square foot is equal to the miles of hourly velocity -multiplied by 0.004 instead of 0.005, as was formerly assumed. - -Professor Marvin was not content with one system of experiments, but -he further attacked the problem in a direct manner by a method which -checked and verified his experiments with the whirling machine. On the -summit of Mount Washington, at an elevation of 6,300 feet, he obtained -simultaneously and under the same conditions, by automatic and -electrical apparatus, continuous registration of the pressure of the -wind in pounds per square foot and of the velocity in miles per hour. - -The results thus verified can be considered as conclusive from a -general standpoint. The corrections for the Robinson anemometer thus -determined from these experiments are comparatively unimportant at low -velocities, say from 10 to 15 miles per hour, being only a fraction of -a mile per hour. The uncorrected velocities, however, are in all cases -too large, and by greater and greater amounts the higher the velocity. -At 60 miles per hour the observed velocities are about 12 miles per -hour too high, and for an indicated velocity of 90 miles the -experiments show that the actual velocity is but a fraction over 69 -miles per hour. - -The anemometer formula found to satisfy most closely the entire range -of experiments has the following form for velocities in miles per -hour: - - Log. _V_ = 0.509 + 0.9012 log. _v_. - -This difference indicated by the formula may seem small and -insignificant, as it is in the case of light winds, but at very high -velocities the differences are very great. For instance, an actual -velocity of 60 miles per hour may occur at some time in almost any -locality of the United States for a few minutes, and even greater -velocities are occasionally reported, apart from severe tornadoes. -Under the old coëfficients for the Robinson anemometer an actual -velocity of 60 miles per hour would have been reported as 77 miles per -hour, which under the old factor of 0.005 would mean a pressure of -29.6 pounds per square foot; but when considered with reference to the -true velocity of 60 miles, under {50} the new factor of 0.004, the -pressure would only be 14.4 pounds per square foot--a reduction of -over 50 per cent. from the pressure-values formerly accepted. - -Professor Marvin has undertaken to verify, and also to extend to even -lower temperatures, the observations of Regnault as to the pressure of -aqueous vapor at low temperatures, especial attention being given to -temperature conditions from 0° centigrade to -50° centigrade. These -observations disclose, below 0° centigrade, small but constant -differences from the values assigned by Regnault. - -In all this work Professor Marvin has shown such ingenuity of -resource, such skill in adapting means to the end, and such deftness -in improvising and manufacturing the requisite instruments as have -elicited commendation from all who have seen his work and followed his -methods. Your Vice-President alludes to this not only to give that -credit rightfully due to Professor Marvin, but to illustrate this as a -type of the highly important work which is being done in all branches -of science here in Washington by young men sometimes illy equipped as -to means, and still more illy paid. Men engaged in work of original -investigation should receive higher pay than clerks in charge of -routine duties; but unfortunately the majority of them do not. - - * * * * * - -The work of Professor Hazen in charting tornadoes and in determining -their relative frequency and severity is directly in the line of the -Geography of the Air. - -Great attention had previously been given to this subject by -Lieutenant John P. Finley, who, with indefatigable industry, had -accumulated an enormous mass of data relative to these violent -outbursts of nature's forces. The figures and deductions previously -put forth under the authority of the Signal Service having been -questioned, the Chief Signal Officer felt obliged, in view of the -growing practical importance of the question, as indicated by the -great sums annually paid out in the Ohio valley and in the -trans-Mississippi region for protection against tornadoes, to reöpen -the subject. Instructions of the most conservative character were -given to Professor Hazen to determine carefully the prevalence and -number of tornadoes in the United States, the areas devastated by -them, and the number of lives lost annually. This work was carefully -scrutinized during its progress to see that it should be devoid of -theory and rest on the solid basis of fact. The results are most -assuring to every {51} one, and must serve to allay the unreasonable -fears of the inhabitants of the so-called "tornado districts." It -appears that there is no part of the United States in which annually -more than one square mile of devastation or severe destruction can be -expected for each 185,000 square miles, although cases of _limited -destruction_ may occur annually for about every 5,000 square miles of -area. In no state may destructive tornadoes be expected, on an -average, more than once in two years; and the area over which total -destruction can be expected is, as shown by the foregoing figures, -exceedingly small, even in localities most liable to these violent -storms. The annual death casualties from tornadoes have averaged, in -the last 18 years, 102 annually; but it is believed that the death -rate from lightning is greater than that from tornadoes, since during -March to August, 1890, the names of 110 are on record who have lost -their lives by lightning, although the data are incomplete, especially -as regards the southern states. These statistics cannot be passed by -lightly, however, and it is doubtful if in the main they are much in -error. By them it appears from five years' record that the average -annual death rate by lightning in the United States is 3.8 per million -of inhabitants, or 0.2 above the average. In Sweden, for sixty years, -the average has been 3.0; in France, for forty-nine years, 3.1; in -Baden, for seventeen years, 3.8; and in Prussia, for fifteen years, -4.4 per million. - -Other figures, given by a life-insurance agent in St. Louis, which the -author claims to have compiled with great care, place the average -annual rate of death from lightning in the United States at 206, being -more than double the deaths from tornadoes. It must be understood that -these figures are not vouched for, and must be very cautiously -received, as originating with companies interested pecuniarily in the -statistics. - -On the whole, therefore, it may be safely assumed that tornadoes are -not so destructive to life as thunder-storms. - - * * * * * - -Professor Thomas Russell has formulated a method for prediction of -cold waves. They always occur after "lows" and before "highs," and -different cold waves vary in extent from three "units" to sixty. A -"unit" of temperature-fall is taken as a fall of twenty degrees over -an area of 50,000 square miles. - -The temperature-fall curves in the United States are approximately -elliptical in shape. Perfect ellipses represent actual temperature -falls with an error not exceeding six degrees in {52} most cases. -These fall lines are intersections of planes with a cone which -graphically represents the totality of temperature-fall, the contents -of the cone being equal to the area of its base multiplied by its -altitude, which is the greatest fall in temperature at the center of -the cold wave. - -A formula has been devised, based on 127 special cases, representing -the amount of fall in terms of the amount of barometric depression in -a "low," and the amount of excess if a "high," and the density of the -isothermal lines in the region. - -From proper consideration of the type of low area, shape of isobars, -and position of the long axis, definite conclusions can be drawn as to -the subsequent shape of the elliptical twenty-degree temperature-fall -area and its position. - -A method has been devised, also by Professor Russell, for determining -the maximum fall of temperature at the center of the cold wave. The -maximum fall and extent of fall being known, from suitably prepared -tables, the area of twenty-degree fall can be derived. Previously -prepared pieces of card-board are laid in the proper position on a map -of suitable scale, and lines drawn around them. Between the line -representing the twenty-degree fall and the center, the other falls of -thirty degrees, forty degrees, etc., are sketched in. - - * * * * * - -The foregoing sketch of the geography of the air may appear too -superficial and limited for the purposes of this Society, but its -further elaboration was impracticable. Indeed, the subject of -meteorology could hardly have been touched upon this year had it not -been for the courtesy of Professor Russell in placing at my disposal -notes upon translations from foreign publications, especially from the -German; which publications I have been unable to examine save in a -casual way. - -The address, as it is, is submitted only in the hope that it may -serve, if no other purpose, at least to indicate the great interest -which now obtains in the geography of the air, and which manifests -itself in the production of meteorological pamphlets and publications -too numerous to permit any one charged with important executive duties -to examine them all, even in a non-critical way. - - - - - - -End of the Project Gutenberg EBook of The National Geographic Magazine, Vol. -III., PP. 41-52, May 1, 1891, by Adolphus Washington Greely - -*** END OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC MAGAZINE, MAY 1, 1891 *** - -***** This file should be named 63122-8.txt or 63122-8.zip ***** -This and all associated files of various formats will be found in: - http://www.gutenberg.org/6/3/1/2/63122/ - -Produced by Ron Swanson -Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions will -be renamed. - -Creating the works from print editions not protected by U.S. copyright -law means that no one owns a United States copyright in these works, -so the Foundation (and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United -States without permission and without paying copyright -royalties. 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Thus, we do not -necessarily keep eBooks in compliance with any particular paper -edition. - -Most people start at our Web site which has the main PG search -facility: www.gutenberg.org - -This Web site includes information about Project Gutenberg-tm, -including how to make donations to the Project Gutenberg Literary -Archive Foundation, how to help produce our new eBooks, and how to -subscribe to our email newsletter to hear about new eBooks. - diff --git a/old/63122-8.zip b/old/63122-8.zip Binary files differdeleted file mode 100644 index bf41036..0000000 --- a/old/63122-8.zip +++ /dev/null diff --git a/old/63122-h.zip b/old/63122-h.zip Binary files differdeleted file mode 100644 index c54391d..0000000 --- a/old/63122-h.zip +++ /dev/null diff --git a/old/63122-h/63122-h.htm b/old/63122-h/63122-h.htm deleted file mode 100644 index cbe09ae..0000000 --- a/old/63122-h/63122-h.htm +++ /dev/null @@ -1,995 +0,0 @@ - -<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN"> - -<html> -<head> - <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1"> - <title>The Project Gutenberg e-Book of The National Geographic Magazine, Vol. III, PP. 41-52, May 1, 1891, by A. W. Greely</title> - <link rel="coverpage" href="images/img-cover.jpg"> - <style type="text/css"> - <!-- - body {margin:12%; text-align:justify} - h1 {text-align:center} - h2 {text-align:center} - h3 {text-align:center} - h4 {text-align:center} - h5 {text-align:center} - .pagenum {position:absolute; left:92%; text-align:right;} --> - </style> -</head> - -<body> - - -<pre> - -The Project Gutenberg EBook of The National Geographic Magazine, Vol. -III., PP. 41-52, May 1, 1891, by Adolphus Washington Greely - -This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United States and most -other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no restrictions -whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of -the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at -www.gutenberg.org. If you are not located in the United States, you'll have -to check the laws of the country where you are located before using this ebook. - -Title: The National Geographic Magazine, Vol. III., PP. 41-52, May 1, 1891 - -Author: Adolphus Washington Greely - -Release Date: September 5, 2020 [EBook #63122] - -Language: English - -Character set encoding: ISO-8859-1 - -*** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC MAGAZINE, MAY 1, 1891 *** - - - - -Produced by Ron Swanson - - - - - -</pre> - -<center><img src="images/img-cover.jpg" alt="cover"></center> -<br> -<br> -<br> -<br> -<span class="pagenum"><a name="page41"><small><small>[p. 41]</small></small></a></span> -<center><small>V<small>OL</small>. III, <small>PP</small>. 41–52 - - - -M<small>AY</small> 1, 1891</small></center> -<h4>THE</h4> -<h2>NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC MAGAZINE.</h2> -<hr> -<br> -<br> -<br> -<br> -<h3>GEOGRAPHY OF THE AIR.</h3> - -<h5>A<small>NNUAL</small> R<small>EPORT BY</small> V<small>ICE</small>-P<small>RESIDENT</small></h5> - -<h4>A. W. GREELY.</h4> - -<center>(<i>Presented to the Society January 23, 1891.</i>)</center> -<br> -<hr align="center" width="25%"> -<br> - -<p>In fulfilling the duties growing out of his official position in -connection with this Society, your Vice-President of the Geography of -the Air has been so closely occupied with executive and other official -duties devolving upon him as to preclude his giving that amount of -time and labor to this annual report that the subject merits. Indeed, -no report would be submitted this year had it not seemed better to -insure a continuity of these annual addresses, even if one of them -might not be up to the high standard which should be maintained for -them.</p> - -<p>It must have impressed every general reader of scientific journals -that the past year has been marked by the publication of an unusual -number of controversial articles relating entirely or in part to -meteorology. Some of the discussions of this subject appear to be in -the nature of speculation, which, by good authority, is defined to be -"chiefly the work of the imagination, and has little to do with -realities." The status of the meteorological discussion which has been -going on for some time seems to be this: A number of men, applying -themselves to investigation in separate branches or stages of the same -science, are attempting to reconcile their views, which, based as they -are upon entirely different processes of investigation, are not -entirely accordant. Some, at least, of these writers are still -apparently groping in the preliminary, the "natural history" stage of -the <span class="pagenum"><a name="page42"><small><small>[p. 42]</small></small></a></span> -science of meteorology, while one alone stands as the -exponent of the "natural philosophy" of meteorology.</p> - -<p>To me it seems that it could not have failed to impress any interested -reader who has followed the late publications on the convectional -theory that, in order to clear the ground for definite meteorological -discussion, it is necessary to determine the exact meaning of the -various technical terms employed by the various writers. Whether from -looseness of verbiage originally or from the not infrequent habit of -disputants when worsted to change their ground by claiming to be -misunderstood, we find that some writers are unwilling either to stand -by their first criticisms or to openly abandon them; they prefer to -explain away their defective statements and gradually shift around to -positions almost diametrically opposed to those originally assumed.</p> - -<p>The generally accepted theory as to cyclones attributes their -initiatory formation to an unequal distribution of temperature with -resulting mean diminution of pressure, and the movement of the air -from places of high to places of low pressure, the lower air ascending -with a gyratory motion, while air particles moving from opposite -directions form couples which produce rotation. When energetic motions -raise the ascending air to such a height that the temperature, cooled -dynamically in ascending, goes below the dew-point, then the great -store of latent heat thereby set free becomes, it is assumed, the main -source of energy in maintaining the upward convectional movement. The -subsidiary causes are attributed to the diminution of pressure on the -collapse of the vapor, and also to the direct absorption of the sun's -heat at the upper cloud surface.</p> - -<p>In anticyclones a slow gyratory descending motion of the air is -assumed. Ferrel considers the cyclone and anticyclone one system, and -believes that air flowing into the cyclone from a "high" at the ground -passes out into the higher atmospheric strata.</p> - -<p>Dr. Hann has put forth the hypothesis that the genesis of cyclones and -anticyclones may be sought in the general atmospheric circulation -through a difference of temperature of the air from the equator to the -poles. He speaks of a congestion in the upper or anti-trade winds, -where the air heaps up to a great height, this being the cause of the -anticyclones; and he maintains that the low temperature of the "high" -is due to ground radiation, and that no part of the high pressure is -the result of low temperature.</p> - -<span class="pagenum"><a name="page43"><small><small>[p. 43]</small></small></a></span> -<p>To this hypothesis of Dr. Hann, ascribing the genesis of storms -to the general circulation of the atmosphere, no application of the -laws of dynamics has yet been made with a view of developing it into -an acceptable "theory." If it should be established it does not follow -that it will in any way affect the truth of the commonly accepted -"convectional system," which, founded as it is on the well-known laws -of thermo-dynamics, is not likely to be successfully assailed. There -may be an improved nomenclature for the laws of statics and dynamics -that will express to the mind more clearly the relation of cause and -effect; but until the advance of scientific research modifies the -present formulation of these laws the convectional theory will be -generally accepted as giving the true interpretation of all the -phenomena to which it could be applied.</p> - -<p>Professor Russell, in commenting on this subject, expresses the -opinion that the low temperature is due to the convective interchange -of air at a low temperature in the upper strata with air of a high -temperature in lower strata, such convective interchange tending to -make the whole body of air of a temperature coinciding throughout with -the adiabatic rate of upward diminution, with the consequent result of -rendering the air at the surface of the earth cooler than previously -and the upper air warmer. When the upward diminution of temperature is -less than the adiabatic rate, in the forced circulation of air -crossing a mountain ridge, there occurs the dynamic heating which is -observed in the case of the foehn winds. The low temperature near the -earth he does not believe could ever be entirely produced by nocturnal -radiation from the ground. The high pressure, in his opinion, is -largely the result of greater density due to low temperature, as is -very clearly indicated by the fact that the temperature is almost -inversely proportional to the pressure, and that the places of lower -temperature substantially coincide with the places of greatest -pressure.</p> - -<p>In advancing hypotheses and inviting discussion the real object is, or -at least should be, to discover the essential cause or causes which -determine the initial formation and subsequent maintenance and -progress of the cyclone. Some real progress in charting lines of equal -density seems to have been made by M. Nils Ekholm following Professor -Abbe's system of "isostaths," one using the term density, the other -buoyancy. Professor Abbe also introduces the factor of the orographic -gradient, but the -<span class="pagenum"><a name="page44"><small><small>[p. 44]</small></small></a></span> -latter is simply the measure of a resistance. -The objection to this form of determination is this, that it is a -measure of mass only. The density of two masses of air is determined -to be the same; but as the density may result from two entirely -different causes, their physical relations cannot be fully expressed -in units of gravity. The methods of Professor Abbe and of M. Nils -Ekholm undoubtedly give good results, partly from the coincidence that -humidity usually varies directly as the temperature.</p> - -<p>The method proposed by Captain James Allen in 1888, which is briefly -described in appendix 24 to the annual report of the Chief Signal -Officer for 1890, appears to afford the means of more clearly -expressing the relations that exist between the mass of the atmosphere -and the forces available for the generation and movement of storms. -Its tentative application at the Signal Office has anticipated and -explained storm movements not indicated or accounted for by the usual -methods.</p> - -<p>As pertinent to this matter, there is instanced a study of the -progress of thunder-storms made by Berg, who observes that the line of -storm front in every case investigated made a decidedly conspicuous -bend into the densest part of the lines representing the absolute -humidity.</p> -<br> - -<p>Scientific conditions have so changed that in these later years it -becomes more and more difficult for investigators to publish any work -which may be characterized as <i>magnum opus</i>. Under this head, however, -must be classed Buchan's important memoir on the distribution of -atmospheric pressure, temperature, and wind direction over the whole -world; a large quarto volume, which contains much new material. It has -been incorporated with the results of observations during the -Challenger expedition, in which series this work appears. The isobars -and isotherms for each month in the year for the whole earth are -charted on Mercator's projection, and for the northern hemisphere on a -chart constructed on a polar projection. In connection with an -abstruse subject, to which Buchan has paid so much attention, the -diurnal variation of pressure, he opines from the Challenger -observations that the oscillations are due to the heat taken from the -solar rays directly in passing through the air and instantaneously -communicated through the whole mass from top to bottom by heating and -evaporation of water on innumerable dust particles. The afternoon -minimum, he thinks, is caused by upward currents removing a portion of -the lower air. Marked -<span class="pagenum"><a name="page45"><small><small>[p. 45]</small></small></a></span> -differences exist between the continental -and insular types, since on islands the morning minimum is unusually -large and the afternoon minimum so small as to disappear, while in -continental types the reverse conditions obtain.</p> -<br> - -<p>Werner Von Siemens, in answering Sprung's criticism on his general air -currents, after repelling certain statements of Sprung, describes his -own theories, which are worthy of restating:</p> - -<blockquote>1. All winds are caused by the disturbances of indifferent -equilibrium, and the motion of the air is to restore equilibrium.</blockquote> - -<blockquote>2. These disturbances are caused through overheating of the layers of -air near the surface of the earth by insolation, through unsymmetrical -cooling of the higher layers by radiation, and through the heaping up -of air masses caused by obstructions.</blockquote> - -<blockquote>3. The disturbances are adjusted by ascending currents, wherein the -particular species of acceleration occurs in which the increase of -velocity is proportioned to the diminution of pressure.</blockquote> - -<blockquote>4. The upward currents correspond to equally great descending currents -in which there is a decrease of velocity corresponding to the -acceleration in the upward velocity.</blockquote> - -<blockquote>5. If the region of overheating of the air is limited locally, a local -upward current reaching to the highest layers of air arises, and -whirlwinds appear with interior spirally ascending currents and -outside similar spiral descending currents. The result of this is -dispersion of the superfluous heat of the lower air by which the -adiabatic equilibrium is disturbed throughout the whole column of air -taking part in the whirling motion.</blockquote> - -<blockquote>6. In case the region of disturbance of the indifferent (or adiabatic) -equilibrium is very extensive, as, for example, the whole of the -tropical zone, the temperature adjustment can no longer be -accomplished by locally ascending whirls, and a whirling current must -then arise involving the whole atmosphere. The same conditions apply -to these as to the local whirls of accelerated upward motion and -retarded descent in such a manner that the velocity at different -altitudes arising from heat converted to work is approximately -proportional to the prevailing pressure at the place.</blockquote> - -<blockquote>7. In consequence of the meridional motion produced and maintained by -conversion of heat into work, the whole atmosphere in every latitude -must rotate with approximately the same absolute velocity. Thus the -meridional currents produced by overheating combine with the currents -embracing the whole -<span class="pagenum"><a name="page46"><small><small>[p. 46]</small></small></a></span> -wind system of the earth, with the result of -disseminating the excess of temperature and humidity of the torrid -zone over the temperate and arctic zones, thereby producing the -prevailing winds.</blockquote> - -<blockquote>8. This is accomplished by the production of alternating local -depressions and elevations of barometric pressure by the disturbance -of indifferent equilibrium in the upper layers of the air.</blockquote> - -<blockquote>9. "Highs" and "lows" are a consequence of the temperatures and -velocities of the upper currents.</blockquote> - -<p>Whence it follows that the most important problem of meteorology is -the investigation of the causes and consequences of the disturbance of -indifferent equilibrium of the atmosphere, and the weightiest problem -in weather prediction is the investigation of the geographical origin -or extraction of air currents pursuing their course above us toward -the pole.</p> -<br> - -<p>In Pomortsew's treatise on synoptic meteorology, published in Russia, -there are full chapters on prediction of weather, whether from -synoptic charts, from observations at a single place, or from -prognostics of great length based on researches on the succession of -warm and cold months. It also contains Pomortsew's investigations on -the types of pressure distribution in eastern Europe, as well as the -average path of cyclones.</p> -<br> - -<p>The favorable opportunities afforded by the Eiffel tower have been -utilized by French meteorologists. M. Angot states that during the -anti-cyclone of November, 1889, the temperature on the tower was -several degrees higher than below. The change of weather set in -earlier, with a strong and warm wind, on the tower, while the air at -the ground was cold and calm. Wind observations on the tower show a -ratio of 3.1 at that height (303 meters) to the velocity at a height -of 21 meters, as determined from 101 days' observations, which, -remarkable at such a small height, discloses the peculiarity of high -mountain stations.</p> -<br> - -<p>Partsch, writing on evidence of climatic changes within historical -times in the Mediterranean region, remarks that too much attention has -been given to changes in crops, the introduction of plants, and the -limits of domestic animals. He states that existing information as to -the harvest time of ancient days indicates an unchanged climate, while -the land-locked lakes in Tunis, which afford the best evidence on -rainfall variation, show absolutely no climatic change.</p> -<br> - -<span class="pagenum"><a name="page47"><small><small>[p. 47]</small></small></a></span> -<p>Van Bebber, in writing on weather types, claims that a line drawn -from the center of a cyclone perpendicularly in the direction of the -heaviest gradients will in general be perpendicular to the subsequent -path of the "low," and that these lows leave high temperature on the -right hand.</p> -<br> - -<p>Hill, in describing hail-stones and tornadoes in India, explains them -on the principle of the great diminution of temperature upwards in the -air, but a critic, in combating this theory, objects to the high and -low stations selected to show temperatures.</p> -<br> - -<p>The so-called "weather plant" of the tropics has passed through the -process of investigation with the usual result. It appears surprising -that in these days it should be believed that any plant or animal can -foretell weather 48 hours in advance, particularly after considering -the vast amount of proof as to the enormous rapidity with which -weather-changes progress from day to day.</p> -<br> - -<p>Hugo Meyer, in treating the precipitation of central Germany for the -ten years ending in 1885, pertinently remarks that the same -significance does not attach to the same rainfall for all places and -different times of the year, for this average value is not the amount -most likely to fall in any particular interval of time, since there is -a limit to the extent of the negative deviations on one side—that is, -0 or no rainfall, while on the positive side there is no limit. The -most probable depth of rainfall, therefore, is less than the mean -value, the preponderance of negative over positive deviations being -about 10 per cent. and sometimes as great as 20 per cent.</p> -<br> - -<p>Professor W. M. Davis wrote an interesting review of Professor -Ferrel's popular treatise on the winds, published a year ago. -Commenting on the review, the editor of <i>Meteorologische Zeltschrift</i>, -Vienna, remarks on a very important omission in the treatise, namely, -the absence of all reference to the diurnal variation of the wind and -the many interesting relations it bears to other phenomena, a notable -omission in a treatise specially devoted to winds. The treatment of -the monsoon wind and its relation to the general circulation is highly -commended by the editor, and indicated as being all new.</p> -<br> -<p>Your Vice-President has elsewhere expressed his opinion that monsoon -winds, applying the term by liberal construction to signify winds -which recur with returning seasons, cannot with -<span class="pagenum"><a name="page48"><small><small>[p. 48]</small></small></a></span> -any degree of -correctness be asserted to prevail in the United States. It is true -that the prevailing surface winds of the greater part of the United -States come from the western quadrants—that is, between southwest and -northwest—and so are in substantial harmony with the general -atmospheric circulation as shown by the upper-wind currents of Mount -Washington (from the northwest) and Pike's peak (from the southwest). -But, apart from the easterly and northeasterly trades on the Florida -coast, it appears from the records that in no case for any -considerable section of the country do 50 per cent. of the winds blow, -for any consecutive number of months, either from any single point or -from two neighboring points of the compass. Occasionally, however, the -local configuration of the country is such that winds are drawn up or -down valleys, and, being diverted from their free and proper -direction, the wind in such cases follows the trend of the valley or -depression.</p> -<br> - -<p>In general your Vice-President would feel inclined to refer only -casually to the work proceeding from the Bureau over which he has the -honor to preside, but this year has been marked by special researches -and investigations of general interest. As the work of investigation -has been entrusted to the professors of the Signal Service, due credit -should not be refused them from their own official chief.</p> - -<p>Special reference should be made to the work of Professor Charles F. -Marvin, whose successful experiments on wind pressures and velocities -have attracted the attention of experts both in Europe and in this -country. Unfortunately there was available only a small sum (about one -hundred dollars) for the expense of experiments, but with this petty -sum, supplemented by his ingenuity, Professor Marvin has very -satisfactorily determined the coëfficients of the various forms of the -Robinson anemometer, with which instrument the velocity of the wind is -very generally determined. Following these investigations, the Royal -Meteorological Society of England reopened the question, which, after -a costly set of experiments with results widely differing from those -of Professor Marvin, had been considered closed.</p> - -<p>The general results of these researches, which are believed to be -sufficiently definite for general questions, are not only prized by -the scientist, but they are of value to the engineer and the builder. -Indeed, to all interested in costly structures or extended works -liable to harm from wind pressures, the factor of safety is -<span class="pagenum"><a name="page49"><small><small>[p. 49]</small></small></a></span> a -matter of no small pecuniary importance. These experiments show that, -as was formerly believed to be the case, the wind pressure varies as -the square of the velocity of the wind, expressed in miles per hour; -but a most important fact has developed, namely, that the pressure in -pounds per square foot is equal to the miles of hourly velocity -multiplied by 0.004 instead of 0.005, as was formerly assumed.</p> - -<p>Professor Marvin was not content with one system of experiments, but -he further attacked the problem in a direct manner by a method which -checked and verified his experiments with the whirling machine. On the -summit of Mount Washington, at an elevation of 6,300 feet, he obtained -simultaneously and under the same conditions, by automatic and -electrical apparatus, continuous registration of the pressure of the -wind in pounds per square foot and of the velocity in miles per hour.</p> - -<p>The results thus verified can be considered as conclusive from a -general standpoint. The corrections for the Robinson anemometer thus -determined from these experiments are comparatively unimportant at low -velocities, say from 10 to 15 miles per hour, being only a fraction of -a mile per hour. The uncorrected velocities, however, are in all cases -too large, and by greater and greater amounts the higher the velocity. -At 60 miles per hour the observed velocities are about 12 miles per -hour too high, and for an indicated velocity of 90 miles the -experiments show that the actual velocity is but a fraction over 69 -miles per hour.</p> - -<p>The anemometer formula found to satisfy most closely the entire range -of experiments has the following form for velocities in miles per -hour:</p> - -<center>Log. <i>V</i> = 0.509 + 0.9012 log. <i>v</i>.</center> - -<p>This difference indicated by the formula may seem small and -insignificant, as it is in the case of light winds, but at very high -velocities the differences are very great. For instance, an actual -velocity of 60 miles per hour may occur at some time in almost any -locality of the United States for a few minutes, and even greater -velocities are occasionally reported, apart from severe tornadoes. -Under the old coëfficients for the Robinson anemometer an actual -velocity of 60 miles per hour would have been reported as 77 miles per -hour, which under the old factor of 0.005 would mean a pressure of -29.6 pounds per square foot; but when considered with reference to the -true velocity of 60 miles, under -<span class="pagenum"><a name="page50"><small><small>[p. 50]</small></small></a></span> -the new factor of 0.004, the -pressure would only be 14.4 pounds per square foot—a reduction of -over 50 per cent. from the pressure-values formerly accepted.</p> - -<p>Professor Marvin has undertaken to verify, and also to extend to even -lower temperatures, the observations of Regnault as to the pressure of -aqueous vapor at low temperatures, especial attention being given to -temperature conditions from 0° centigrade to –50° centigrade. These -observations disclose, below 0° centigrade, small but constant -differences from the values assigned by Regnault.</p> - -<p>In all this work Professor Marvin has shown such ingenuity of -resource, such skill in adapting means to the end, and such deftness -in improvising and manufacturing the requisite instruments as have -elicited commendation from all who have seen his work and followed his -methods. Your Vice-President alludes to this not only to give that -credit rightfully due to Professor Marvin, but to illustrate this as a -type of the highly important work which is being done in all branches -of science here in Washington by young men sometimes illy equipped as -to means, and still more illy paid. Men engaged in work of original -investigation should receive higher pay than clerks in charge of -routine duties; but unfortunately the majority of them do not.</p> -<br> -<p>The work of Professor Hazen in charting tornadoes and in determining -their relative frequency and severity is directly in the line of the -Geography of the Air.</p> - -<p>Great attention had previously been given to this subject by -Lieutenant John P. Finley, who, with indefatigable industry, had -accumulated an enormous mass of data relative to these violent -outbursts of nature's forces. The figures and deductions previously -put forth under the authority of the Signal Service having been -questioned, the Chief Signal Officer felt obliged, in view of the -growing practical importance of the question, as indicated by the -great sums annually paid out in the Ohio valley and in the -trans-Mississippi region for protection against tornadoes, to reöpen -the subject. Instructions of the most conservative character were -given to Professor Hazen to determine carefully the prevalence and -number of tornadoes in the United States, the areas devastated by -them, and the number of lives lost annually. This work was carefully -scrutinized during its progress to see that it should be devoid of -theory and rest on the solid basis of fact. The results are most -assuring to every -<span class="pagenum"><a name="page51"><small><small>[p. 51]</small></small></a></span> -one, and must serve to allay the unreasonable -fears of the inhabitants of the so-called "tornado districts." It -appears that there is no part of the United States in which annually -more than one square mile of devastation or severe destruction can be -expected for each 185,000 square miles, although cases of <i>limited -destruction</i> may occur annually for about every 5,000 square miles of -area. In no state may destructive tornadoes be expected, on an -average, more than once in two years; and the area over which total -destruction can be expected is, as shown by the foregoing figures, -exceedingly small, even in localities most liable to these violent -storms. The annual death casualties from tornadoes have averaged, in -the last 18 years, 102 annually; but it is believed that the death -rate from lightning is greater than that from tornadoes, since during -March to August, 1890, the names of 110 are on record who have lost -their lives by lightning, although the data are incomplete, especially -as regards the southern states. These statistics cannot be passed by -lightly, however, and it is doubtful if in the main they are much in -error. By them it appears from five years' record that the average -annual death rate by lightning in the United States is 3.8 per million -of inhabitants, or 0.2 above the average. In Sweden, for sixty years, -the average has been 3.0; in France, for forty-nine years, 3.1; in -Baden, for seventeen years, 3.8; and in Prussia, for fifteen years, -4.4 per million.</p> - -<p>Other figures, given by a life-insurance agent in St. Louis, which the -author claims to have compiled with great care, place the average -annual rate of death from lightning in the United States at 206, being -more than double the deaths from tornadoes. It must be understood that -these figures are not vouched for, and must be very cautiously -received, as originating with companies interested pecuniarily in the -statistics.</p> - -<p>On the whole, therefore, it may be safely assumed that tornadoes are -not so destructive to life as thunder-storms.</p> -<br> - -<p>Professor Thomas Russell has formulated a method for prediction of -cold waves. They always occur after "lows" and before "highs," and -different cold waves vary in extent from three "units" to sixty. A -"unit" of temperature-fall is taken as a fall of twenty degrees over -an area of 50,000 square miles.</p> - -<p>The temperature-fall curves in the United States are approximately -elliptical in shape. Perfect ellipses represent actual temperature -falls with an error not exceeding six degrees in -<span class="pagenum"><a name="page52"><small><small>[p. 52]</small></small></a></span> -most cases. -These fall lines are intersections of planes with a cone which -graphically represents the totality of temperature-fall, the contents -of the cone being equal to the area of its base multiplied by its -altitude, which is the greatest fall in temperature at the center of -the cold wave.</p> - -<p>A formula has been devised, based on 127 special cases, representing -the amount of fall in terms of the amount of barometric depression in -a "low," and the amount of excess if a "high," and the density of the -isothermal lines in the region.</p> - -<p>From proper consideration of the type of low area, shape of isobars, -and position of the long axis, definite conclusions can be drawn as to -the subsequent shape of the elliptical twenty-degree temperature-fall -area and its position.</p> - -<p>A method has been devised, also by Professor Russell, for determining -the maximum fall of temperature at the center of the cold wave. The -maximum fall and extent of fall being known, from suitably prepared -tables, the area of twenty-degree fall can be derived. Previously -prepared pieces of card-board are laid in the proper position on a map -of suitable scale, and lines drawn around them. Between the line -representing the twenty-degree fall and the center, the other falls of -thirty degrees, forty degrees, etc., are sketched in.</p> -<br> - -<p>The foregoing sketch of the geography of the air may appear too -superficial and limited for the purposes of this Society, but its -further elaboration was impracticable. Indeed, the subject of -meteorology could hardly have been touched upon this year had it not -been for the courtesy of Professor Russell in placing at my disposal -notes upon translations from foreign publications, especially from the -German; which publications I have been unable to examine save in a -casual way.</p> - -<p>The address, as it is, is submitted only in the hope that it may -serve, if no other purpose, at least to indicate the great interest -which now obtains in the geography of the air, and which manifests -itself in the production of meteorological pamphlets and publications -too numerous to permit any one charged with important executive duties -to examine them all, even in a non-critical way.</p> - - - - - - - - -<pre> - - - - - -End of the Project Gutenberg EBook of The National Geographic Magazine, Vol. -III., PP. 41-52, May 1, 1891, by Adolphus Washington Greely - -*** END OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK NATIONAL GEOGRAPHIC MAGAZINE, MAY 1, 1891 *** - -***** This file should be named 63122-h.htm or 63122-h.zip ***** -This and all associated files of various formats will be found in: - http://www.gutenberg.org/6/3/1/2/63122/ - -Produced by Ron Swanson -Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions will -be renamed. - -Creating the works from print editions not protected by U.S. copyright -law means that no one owns a United States copyright in these works, -so the Foundation (and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United -States without permission and without paying copyright -royalties. 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