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diff --git a/34768-h/34768-h.htm b/34768-h/34768-h.htm new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fed9e8f --- /dev/null +++ b/34768-h/34768-h.htm @@ -0,0 +1,2092 @@ +<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN" + "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-strict.dtd"> +<!-- $Id: header.txt 236 2009-12-07 18:57:00Z vlsimpson $ --> + +<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xml:lang="en" lang="en"> + <head> + <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html;charset=iso-8859-1" /> + <meta http-equiv="Content-Style-Type" content="text/css" /> + <title> + The Project Gutenberg eBook of The Outlook:Uncle Sam's Place and Prospects in International Politics, by Newton Macmillan. + </title> + <style type="text/css"> + +body { + margin-left: 10%; + margin-right: 10%; +} + +/* paragraphs */ + +p { + margin-top: 3%; + margin-bottom: 3%; + text-align: justify; +} /* general unindented paragraph */ + +p.h2 { + margin-top: 7%; + text-indent: 0%; + text-align: center; + font-size: 200%; + font-weight: bold; +} + +p.h3 { + margin-top: 7%; + text-indent: 0%; + text-align: center; + font-size: 100%; + font-weight: bold; +} + +p.indent { + text-indent: 4%; +} /* indented paragraph */ + +p.cap:first-letter { float: left; clear: left; + margin: 2.5% 1% 0 0; + padding:0; + line-height: 1.8%; font-size: 250%; +} /* unindented with large first letter cap */ + +p.margin-left8 +{ + margin-left: 20%; +} /* text unindented with medium indentation of paragraph */ + + +/* horizontal rules */ + +hr { + width: 33%; + margin-top: 8%; + margin-bottom: 8%; + margin-left: auto; + margin-right: auto; + clear: both; +} + +.hr2 +{ + width: 90%; + color: white; + background-color: white; + border: none; + border-bottom: 6px double black; + margin: 8% auto; +} /* horizontal rule for chapter divisions */ + +/* tables */ + +table { + margin-left: auto; + margin-right: auto; +} + +.pagenum { + position: absolute; + left: 92%; + font-size: smaller; + text-align: right; +} /* page numbers */ + +/* block quotes and notes */ +.blockquote { + margin-left: 10%; + margin-right: 10%; +} + +/* Formatting */ + +.center { + text-indent: 0%; + text-align: center; +} + +.smcap {font-variant: small-caps;} + +/* Footnotes */ + +.footnotes {border: dashed 1px; background-color: #f6f2f2;} + +.footnote {margin-left: 10%; margin-right: 10%; font-size: 0.9em;} + +.footnote .label {position: absolute; right: 84%; text-align: right;} + +.fnanchor { + vertical-align: super; + font-size: .8em; + text-decoration: + none; +} + +/* Other */ +span.cursive { + font-family: Blackmoor LET, cursive; +} + + </style> + </head> +<body> + + +<pre> + +The Project Gutenberg EBook of The Outlook: Uncle Sam's Place and +Prospects in International Politics, by Newton Macmillan + +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + + +Title: The Outlook: Uncle Sam's Place and Prospects in International Politics + +Author: Newton Macmillan + +Release Date: December 28, 2010 [EBook #34768] + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: ISO-8859-1 + +*** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE OUTLOOK *** + + + + +Produced by Bryan Ness, Ernest Schaal, and the Online +Distributed Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net (This +book was produced from scanned images of public domain +material from the Google Print project.) + + + + + + +</pre> + + + +<p class="h2">The Outlook:</p> + +<p class="h3">Uncle Sam's Place and<br /> +Prospects in International<br /> +Politics</p> + +<hr /> + +<p class="h3">Newton Macmillan.</p> + +<hr class="hr2"/> + +<p class="h2">THE OUTLOOK:</p> + +<p class="center">UNCLE SAM'S PLACE AND PROSPECTS IN<br /> +INTERNATIONAL POLITICS.</p> + +<hr /> + +<p class="center"><span class="cursive">A Paper</span></p> + +<p class="center"><span class="smcap">Read before The Fortnightly Club, Oswego, N. Y.,</span><br /> +<span class="smcap">May</span> 2, 1899,</p> + +<p class="center">BY</p> + +<p class="center">NEWTON MACMILLAN.</p> + +<hr /> + +<p class="center"><span class="smcap">ordered published by the fortnightly club.</span></p> + +<hr /> + +<p class="center">1899.</p> + +<hr class="hr2"/> + +<p class="center">PRESS OF R. J. OLIPHANT,<br /> +OSWEGO, N. Y.</p> + +<hr class="hr2"/> + +<p class="h2"><span class="smcap">The Outlook</span>:</p> + +<p class="center">UNCLE SAM'S PLACE AND PROSPECTS IN INTERNATIONAL POLITICS.</p> + +<p class="cap">IT is exactly a year and a day since Oswego, responding to +the President's call, sent away her modest quota of citizen-soldiery +to the war with Spain. A novel and inspiring scene, +whose meaning, perhaps, we did not wholly take in at the +time: the flag of the Republic borne away from the precincts +of the city at the head of a body of men of peaceful pursuits, +destined, as we supposed, to invade the soil of an alien foe.</p> + +<p class="indent">The event proved otherwise. Our neighbors were not to +pass the boundaries of their native land, but with equal gallantry +they were to perform the part of those who "also +serve," although they "only stand and wait." Their part +was not to scale the awful hill at San Juan, to give their +bodies to the noisome vermin of the Cuban chaparral, or to +lie down in death upon the fever-stricken rice-fields of Luzon. +Nevertheless they partook in the glory of those victories won +by their more fortunate comrades, to the honor and credit of +the entire army of the United States. Theirs also is an +equal part in the renown which all the world now accords to +that new and formidable factor in warfare—the American +Volunteer.</p> + +<p class="indent">Truly a May day long to be remembered. Even as we +followed the flag to the confines of the town news came from +a distant land where that same beloved standard had been +carried to victory and undying glory. In the far-away harbor +of Manila a gallant officer had awaked that morning unknown +to fame, but before he slept he had written the name of +George Dewey upon the imperishable scroll with that of +Drake, and Nelson, and Perry, and Farragut; destroyed the +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 4]</span> +power and prestige of Spain in the East—a fabric four centuries +in building, but toppled over in as many hours; annexed +a new and splendid territory to our domain, and—most +important of all—launched the Republic upon a new and +greater career.</p> + +<p class="indent">A wonderful day indeed, and the first of many that were +to make the twelvemonth just concluded one of the most, if +not the most important in our history. He is a dull citizen of +the Republic, indeed, who does not see in this swift succession +of events a significance wide and deep. An ancient +regime has been swept from our hemisphere and relegated to +the rubbish heap of nations. Our flag flies not only in the +Antilles but in mid-Pacific, by token that that illimitable +ocean is now to us an inland lake. Our army and navy, +posted at China's doorway to uphold our place in the perennial +struggle for mastery in the East, is a notification to the +great powers that henceforth they have to reckon with another +as formidable—perhaps, also, as rapacious—as themselves. +"You must understand," said Mr. Speaker Reed +the other day to a distinguished British visitor, "that we +have burst our swaddling-clothes." And in that jocular epigram +lies a meaning almost beyond words to express.</p> + +<p class="indent">If we ourselves fail to take in the full significance of these +recent events—and it would appear that some of us do—our +neighbors in Europe and Asia are not so dull. Five and +twenty years ago Von Moltke turned away from our civil war +as unworthy the study of a soldier. It was, he said contemptuously, +"a conflict of armed mobs."</p> + +<p class="indent">But mark the instructive power of our recent victories. A +surviving countryman and colleague of Von Moltke, discussing +the progress of our arms in Manila, the courage, intelligence +and perfect discipline of our "raw militia," uttered +recently this truly significant warning: "Here is a new +power with which we all must reckon—a new giant, as yet +ignorant of his strength. He can, if need be, muster ten millions +of men, who in three months will be veteran soldiers, +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 5]</span> +the equals if not the superiors of the best troops in Europe. +It is a menace to the world's peace."</p> + +<p class="indent">And, "It would be absurd," writes an English military +officer who looked on as a critic and student of war at the +charge up San Juan hill, "to compare with those men the +finest soldiers in Germany, France, Russia or England. Their +equals do not exist."</p> + +<p class="indent">Are we indeed a "menace to the world's peace," or only +to those who would disturb that peace? The Europeans +speak from their own point of view as jealous rivals, set to +watch each other and match force with force, controlment +with controlment. It is a saying of diplomacy that in the +division of labor between the powers of Europe, Russia is to +watch Northern Asia, England to guard India, and Germany +to preserve the balance of power on the continent of Europe.</p> + +<p class="indent">Are we to have part or lot in this complex assignment of +duties? That is but one of many questions that rise before us +as we contemplate the events of the past year. No other year +in our history, perhaps, has been so rich in performance, so +crowded with great and significant events. What of the year +to come? What of the years that stretch out before us as +we approach the threshold of the new century? Are we +entered in the international handicap for the grand prize of +empire and world-wide ascendancy? Or have we but made +a dash out of our safe retreat, only to return to our historic +isolation as a second-class power—one of the little, not of +the great of earth?</p> + +<p class="indent">Behind a wall of our own building we have in recent years +waxed fat and rich, not to say sordid and corrupt. As we +have been, shall we so continue?</p> + +<p class="indent">It is a trite saying that no war leaves a nation where it +finds it. A little more than a year ago our Uncle Samuel +shouldered his musket and set forth to rid his southern doorway +of a certain yellow, yelping cur which for years had been +a nuisance if not a menace to his peace. The dog is dead +and its carcass kicked out of sight. But is that all? We +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 6]</span> +learn—some of us with surprise or even consternation—that +certain responsibilities attach to the use of firearms on the +high seas and in the international preserves. Can we dodge +those responsibilities? Ought we to do so if we can? Will +it even pay?</p> + +<p class="indent">We have discovered—once more with something like surprise—that +war, even if undertaken in the "sacred cause of +humanity," is something more than mere burning of powder. +Whatever our original purpose, we have new territory on our +hands. We cannot kick Spain out of Cuba, even in the cause +of philanthropy, and leave the island to Cuban savagery, for +that is no better than the savagery of Spain.</p> + +<p class="indent">Similarly in the Philippines. If Admiral Dewey, after +sinking Montojo's fleet a year and a day ago, had sailed away, +as some Americans seem to think he ought to have done, he +would have merited court-martial for himself and the world's +scorn, contempt and execration for his country. He had no +license to burn American powder and pour out American +blood to further the ambitions of Aguinaldo, or win colonies +in the far East for Germany. Dewey's real victory was won, +not on that spectacular first of May, but in the weary, dreary +months following, when, with infinite patience, unsleeping +watchfulness and the tact of true genius, he kept the peace in +the waters that rolled above the sunken Spanish fleet; whispered +words of friendly warning in the ear of the amiable +German, Von Diederichs, and—greatest of all—captured +Manila without bloodshed. Let us never cease to thank the +God of Battles that in the Admiral of our Asiatic fleet we +have had a man as well as a fighter—a modest, earnest, fearless +man, who could not only conquer an enemy but, greater +still, conquer himself, control his natural resentments and +bring his passions in subjection to his conscience. What +might have befallen us before now without such a guardian +of our interests on the scene, it is neither pleasant nor profitable +to speculate.</p> + +<p class="indent">But the conflict is not yet over—perhaps it has not yet even +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 7]</span> +fairly begun. Assuming, as I suppose we may, that Aguinaldo +is ready to treat for peace, there still remain the allies +of that patriot—in Asia and Europe, even here in America. +The Philippine chieftain has fought hard and with splendid +prodigality of patriot blood—not, however, his own. But +three months' experience with the "white devils" who fight +without resting, and especially with "devils" like Funston +and his wild westerners, who "eat bullets" and swim turgid +rivers under fire—three months of such experience has +caused the Filipinos to revise the estimate of white man's +warfare formed upon their acquaintance with Spain.</p> + +<p class="indent">Still remain, however, the watchful Europeans in the East, +who, despite the diplomatic protestations of their respective +governments, would be only too ready to take advantage of +our first misstep or sign of weakness.</p> + +<p class="indent">Remain also those peculiar patriots here at home who +have found interest or duty in affording aid and comfort at +long range to their country's foes. Of these American Filipinos +there are several breeds. First, there is the political +breed, who, under the leadership of a distinguished westerner, +are gallantly fighting the administration with a view to the +possibilities of 1900. Of these patriots it is to be observed +that their political instincts have already taught them much. +Not for the first time, they realize that they have misjudged +the public temper. Treachery, in whatever guise, has never +been lovely to the American eye, and I think we may assume +that the Bryan Filipinos will presently discover that they are +on the wrong tack. They will not figure largely in the events +of the future.</p> + +<p class="indent">A more troublesome, insistent factor is the Atkinson breed +of Filipinos. This will do as a generic name for a species of +patriots that has never been entirely wanting at any stage of +our national progress. They were called Tories when they +first appeared, to oppose the patriot revolt from Great Britain. +During the War of the Rebellion they earned the name of +Copperheads, from the similarity of their tactics to those of +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 8]</span> +the snake in the grass which strikes without warning. These +tactics the Atkinsons are renewing now, without apparent +hope of reward or success, but merely from that perversity +of nature, that inborn contrariness whose existence is to be +explained only on the theory that "it takes all kinds of people +to make a world."</p> + +<p class="indent">Of these gentry and their kind, I have only to say that +they may thank their lucky stars that they live and practice +their treacherous devices in a country where the jealousy for +free speech and a free press sometimes permits liberty to +fall into license. The wanton Copperhead may for the present +shelter himself behind the good nature of the people. I +say for the present, for I do not believe that such treasonable +conduct as inciting troops under arms to resist lawful authority +can forever go unpunished; but in the end it will be treated +as it deserves.<a name="FNanchor_1_1" id="FNanchor_1_1"></a><a href="#Footnote_1_1" class="fnanchor">[1]</a></p> + +<div class="footnotes"> +<div class="footnote"><a name="Footnote_1_1" id="Footnote_1_1"></a><a href="#FNanchor_1_1"><span class="label">[1]</span></a> This was written before Mr. Atkinson's treasonable pamphlets had been stopped in the +mails by the Post Office Department.</div> +</div> + +<p class="indent">I do not deny to any American citizen the right to entertain +his own opinion as to the wisdom of any public policy, +including that of the administration toward the Philippines. +Nor do I deny that there may be Americans of undoubted +patriotism who conscientiously oppose that policy. But +there are times and occasions for all things; and there are +occasions when open criticism of the Government amounts +to treason. So there are times when it is the duty of every +patriot to support the Government, without regard to private +difference of opinion. As for the present, it is one of those +occasions when the patriot should say, with Winthrop: +"Our country, however bounded or described—still our +country—to be cherished in all our hearts; to be defended +by all our hands!"</p> + +<p class="indent">There is an hour for debate and there is time for argument, +wherein the Government may easily be shown to be in +the wrong. But in the hour of battle, so long as any armed +foe of the flag is above the sod, the patriot can only exclaim: +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 9]</span> +"My country—may she never be in the wrong; but right or +wrong, my country!"</p> + +<hr /> + +<p class="indent">While we may safely leave to the Government the subjugation +of its enemies at home or abroad, there can be no +harm in discussing here some of the arguments that have +been advanced in all honesty against the policy now generally +known as "imperialism," or "territorial expansion." The +anti-expansionists honestly opposed the annexation of Hawaii; +but Hawaii is already annexed, and as truly a part of the +national domain as Massachusetts or New York. In like +manner Porto Rico is ours, for better, for worse, till death or +dissolution shall us part. As for Cuba, we hold it in trust +for the Cubans, against the time when those enigmatical patriots +shall prove their ability and worthiness to rule themselves +or their country. When is that time to come? We +ourselves are to be the judges. I am not a prophet nor the +son of a prophet, but I hold it to be vastly significant that +the majority of intelligent Cuban <i>civilians</i> seem to look forward, +not with pleasure but with dread to that much-talked-of +millennium, "Cuba for the Cubans."</p> + +<p class="indent">The tendency of the times, in government as in commerce, +is clearly centripetal, not centrifugal. There is not an +island in the West Indies whose condition would not be improved +by annexation to this Republic; and, after all, self-interest +is the main-spring of all national policies. I would +rather predict that Canada and British America, Mexico and +the Central American states are destined for ultimate (and +peaceful) admission to this Union, than that we are to take a +single backward step along the lines so clearly laid down by +the war with Spain.</p> + +<p class="indent">But the Philippines present to the eye another and a +broader question. Here is an archipelago removed from our +center of population by one-half the circumference of the +globe; peopled by a race—or, rather, races—wholly alien +to any hitherto admitted to our citizenship, and—most important +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 10]</span> +of all—plunged into the very vortex of that boiling +cauldron known as the Eastern question.</p> + +<p class="indent">What is to be our policy toward those remote islands?—to +retain them or to let them go?</p> + +<p class="indent">The objections that have thus far been raised to our retention +of the Philippines come chiefly under these heads: 1, +Constitutional; 2, Our "historic policy;" 3, Utility or self-interest.</p> + +<hr /> + +<p class="indent">And first as to the constitutional questions involved. For +so young a nation the United States has already passed +through numerous crises, chiefly arising over the acquisition +of new territory, and it is noteworthy that in each of these the +policy of the Government has been opposed by a conscientious +minority on the plea of alleged unconstitutionality. +Once more we are warned, in the present crisis, that the acquisition +and proposed retention of the Philippines are without +warrant in the constitution of the United States.</p> + +<p class="indent">Far be it from me to breathe disrespect for a document so +respectable, but there can be no treason in pointing out the +perfectly obvious fact that no constitution, and especially no +written constitution, can be stronger than the men who made +it; it cannot be—it is not—so strong as the men for whom +it is made, because in them is vested the power to amend or +even to annul it.</p> + +<p class="indent">The fathers of the Republic were wise in their generation; +rarely, if ever, has a country been so blessed in the character +of its founders as ours. But they were human, and hence +fallible; mere men, and therefore not endowed with the gift +of prophecy. They themselves would have been the first to +disclaim such an attribute. They drafted a constitution admirably +suited for the needs of thirteen colonies stretched +along the Atlantic coast, recently liberated by the bravery of +their own citizens from the tyranny of a stupid and stiff-necked +English monarch and ministry. And then, proud, +serene and happy in the consciousness of duty well done, +they were gathered to the bosom of their fathers.</p> + +<p class="indent"><span class="pagenum">[Pg 11]</span> +The fathers and founders died, but the Republic lived on. +Year by year it grew and waxed greater. No student of our +history need be told that every instance of expansion of our +territory presented unsolved problems beyond the apparent +scope of the parchment constitution; or that as each of these +occasions arose, arose also a party to declare that the constitution +<i>could not</i> be stretched to meet the demand. Yet the +growth continued and the constitution survived.</p> + +<p class="indent">I do not presume to read the constitution of the United +States for this or any other audience—that is a work beyond +my powers, and, I apprehend, beyond those of many who +consider themselves of the "constitutional party." But there +may be instruction in recalling a few of the instances in our +history in which the constitutionally impossible has been +nevertheless accomplished, and that, too, without harm to +the Republic.</p> + +<p class="indent">Thomas Jefferson, being a democrat and "strict constructionist," +demanded an amendment to the constitution to +confirm the Louisiana purchase; but not, it will be remembered, +until after the purchase had been made, constitution or +no constitution.</p> + +<p class="indent">Andrew Jackson, another democrat, has never been rebuked +by posterity for marching into Florida, arresting and +hanging Ambuster and his fellow spies on what was then +Spanish territory; yet in so doing President Jackson thrust +his hob-nailed Tennessee boots clean through the sacred +parchment. It has been well said that success is an unwritten +law seldom reversed by the courts. Certainly neither the +courts nor Jackson's fellow strict-constructionists have ever +rebuked him for the "unconstitutional act."</p> + +<p class="indent">Passing over the Mexican war and the acquisition of Texas, +California and New Mexico, a series of acts very damaging to +the dignity of the constitution, let us come at one step to the +most conspicuous breach of the constitution in all our history—the +War of the Rebellion.</p> + +<p class="indent">There is not a line in the constitution expressly permitting +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 12]</span> +the secession of a state, though so eminent an +authority as the late Judge Thomas M. Cooley, himself a +Northerner and a Union man of undoubted loyalty, plainly +intimates in his "Constitutional Limitations" that at least +historical precedent was on the side of secession. But neither +is there authority in the constitution for the invasion +of a state by the federal army, unless at the request of the +state authorities; yet the Southern states seceded, and President +Lincoln marched the Northern armies whithersoever +secession and rebellion showed their heads. Still more recently, +President Cleveland sent federal troops into Illinois +to quell riotous strikers, against the protest of the Governor; +yet posterity sustains both presidents in their acts—perhaps +even thanks them for the precedent—whatever the cost to +the constitution.</p> + +<p class="indent">As for the repression of the rebellion, posterity, including +many of the seceding "strict constructionists," now concede +that equity, common sense and the instinct of self-preservation +amply justified any possible breach of the constitution +committed for the preservation of the Union. A federation +of states holding together only at the will of all its component +parts would hardly have been worth saving; so that if the +constitution was on the side of the seceders, why—so much +the worse for the constitution.</p> + +<p class="indent">It was during the War of the Rebellion, too, that a +legislature of Virginia met in Alexandria and passed a law +cutting the state in two, to erect the new state of West +Virginia. Now, article 4, section 3, of the United States +constitution expressly declares that "no state shall be +formed or erected within the jurisdiction of any other +state, nor any state be formed by the junction of two or +more states or parts of states, without the consent of the +legislatures of the states concerned and of the Congress." +Yet the state of West Virginia is a historical, political and +geographical fact, notwithstanding that the precedent thus +established is a dangerous one, and the division wrought +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 13]</span> +great injustice to the Old Dominion in throwing upon her +shoulders the entire debt of the original state. Here was not +only a violation of the constitution, but a "historical crime;" +yet both constitution and the crime remain to vex the souls of +the strict constructionists and to remind us all how weak a +thing is any constitution when it blocks the way of a popular +demand.</p> + +<p class="indent">There is no need to multiply instances, though there are +many others—notably during the period of "reconstructing" +the conquered states after the war. The constitution offers +no more substantial obstacle to the acquisition of territory in +the Philippines than it did in the other cases cited, provided +only that public expediency and the demand of the people are +on the other side.</p> + +<hr /> + +<p class="indent">Scarcely less importance is attributed by the anti-expansionists +to our alleged "historical <i>policy of isolation</i>," which, +we are told, would be violated by thrusting our hands as a +nation into the larger affairs of international politics. For +some reason the idea seems to prevail that George Washington +and other statesmen of his period designed the Republic +for a remote, parochial career, hedged about by a Chinese +wall, excluding all foreign influence from our affairs and +retaining our own energies within our own boundaries. +"America for the Americans," is the shibboleth of this school +of political philosophers, and they really seem to believe that +the Republic will in some way be happier and richer if we +keep aloof entirely and forever from the rest of the world.</p> + +<p class="indent">As a matter of fact, the only nation on earth that has ever +maintained such a policy to its logical end and conclusion is +China, and China is now awaiting participation in a grand +international banquet, whereat, like Polonius, she is not to +eat but to be eaten.</p> + +<p class="indent">As for the United States, if any nation ever came into +existence and has lived under the fierce light of international +politics, it has been this Republic of ours. To be sure, our +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 14]</span> +trade policy of recent years has been framed on the Chinese +model—"America for the Americans"—and in consequence +we are now brought face to face with a retaliatory policy on +the part of the powers of continental Europe which may easily +shut us out of the world's market at the hour of our greatest +need. But of that, more later on.</p> + +<p class="indent">In point of fact, we have been a "world power" from the +very moment of our birth as a nation, or even before it. Our +Declaration of Independence, that beautiful synthesis of paradoxes, +became from the moment of its publication a powerful +factor in the world's progress. "Among all peoples," +says Professor Tyler, "it has everywhere been associated +with the assertion of the natural rights of man. To every +struggling nation it has been a model and an inspiration." +And Buckle, the English historian, declares that its effect in +hastening the French Revolution "was most remarkable." +No state paper of modern times has exercised so wide an +authority.</p> + +<p class="indent">Geographically, we are a nation lying athwart a continent, +from ocean to ocean, and in the immediate highway of the +world's traffic from west to east and from east to west. Between +1821 and 1898 no less than eighteen millions of Europeans +landed upon our shores to become a part of our citizenship +and complete its truly cosmopolitan character.</p> + +<p class="indent">As for the policy of our Government, it has been that of a +world power from the start. Almost our first important act +as a government was to cast in our lot with France, for the +express purpose of disturbing the balance of power in Europe. +And that purpose was realized. In December, 1776, Congress +sent out a fleet of privateers which became a scourge to our +enemies on the high seas. As early as 1777, we had commissioners, +who soon became ministers, at Paris, taking active +and important part in a conference of the powers. Five years +later, Franklin, John Adams and Jay sat in the congress at +Paris, "almost as arbiters," a contemporary record says, so +powerful was their voice in the conference.</p> + +<p class="indent"><span class="pagenum">[Pg 15]</span> +Washington's much-talked-of proclamation of neutrality, +says Professor Bushnell Hart, was never intended to keep the +United States from contact or entanglement with European +powers, but only so wisely to shape our course (at that time) +that we should be free to fight or keep the peace as our interest +should dictate.</p> + +<p class="indent">It was the United States which first ventured to send a +fleet to the Mediterranean to suppress the Barbary pirates—an +act from which all the civilized world benefited. Indeed, +it is within the limits of truth to say that the period of our +liveliest intercourse with foreign powers was the identical +period of "the fathers" who are so often and so falsely +quoted as urging the policy of isolation that would sooner or +later reduce us to the condition of the Chinese Empire.</p> + +<p class="indent">Our interests in the far East began as early as 1785, when +the ship <i>Empress of New York</i> came home from her first +Chinese voyage to enrich her owners with the traffic in furs +and ginseng. It is a fact too soon forgotten that our title to +Oregon was founded upon the early establishment on that +remote coast of a trading-post for our Chinese trade.</p> + +<p class="indent">As long ago as 1851, the native rulers of Hawaii begged—nay, +even insisted—that our government annex those +islands, whose people had already been familiar with our flag +for years. Annexation did not take place until nearly half a +century later, but the episode suffices to prove that even at +that early day we were a world power in all that the term +implies.</p> + +<p class="indent">Three years later—in 1854—Oliver Hazard Perry, Commodore +of the United States navy, battered down the gates +of Nagasaki, and by the method which England so successfully +employed toward China, established "treaty relations" +between the Yankees of the East and of the West.</p> + +<p class="indent">This brings us, after a view necessarily imperfect and cursory, +very nearly to the War of the Rebellion. That struggle, +and the absorbing internal questions which led up to it, +kept us very busy at home, though both the North and the +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 16]</span> +South, appreciating the importance of foreign sympathy and +moral support, kept their emissaries constantly at the various +courts of Europe. The international episodes of the war +may be said in one sense to afford the most interesting chapters +in its history. Certainly they should suffice to convince +us that, even in the heat of that internal struggle, our affairs +formed a part of the business of the outside world; so complete +is the interdependence of nations. Nor need it be +recalled that the war was scarcely at an end before Mr. +Seward had occasion to warn Napoleon III. out of Mexico, +and thus topple over a scheme of aggression involving at +least two of the great powers of Europe.</p> + +<hr /> + +<p class="indent">It has been necessary to pass over with greater haste than +I could have wished these arguments of the anti-expansionists, +because there are other phases of the question which, to +my mind at least, are of vastly greater importance; for I do +not deny that there are obstacles in the path of territorial +expansion.</p> + +<p class="indent">Assuming the present war of subjugation to be brought to +a successful issue; that the Filipinos acknowledge both the +hopelessness of their cause and the justice of ours, as in the end +they must, our difficulties are not yet finished. We have still +to consider the remoteness of the archipelago, the savagery of +many of the native tribes, the tropical climate, and the dregs +of four centuries of Spanish misrule.</p> + +<p class="indent">The average temperature in the Philippines, according to +the imperfect statistics collated by the Spanish at Manila, is +much too high for the comfort of any man accustomed to the +climate of our so-called temperate zone. Professor Dean +Worcester, of our Philippine Commission, who spent three +and a half years in the islands as a naturalist, says that in all +that time he never experienced a day in which a white man +could work hard for many hours together in comfort, or even +in safety. The coolest months are December and January, +but the lowest temperature known at this period of mid-winter +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 17]</span> +is 71 degrees. During the remainder of the year the mercury +often mounts above 90 degrees, and not infrequently to 100 +degrees. The effects of the heat, moreover, are aggravated +by the humidity of the atmosphere, so that it saps the vitality +and enfeebles the stoutest constitution.</p> + +<p class="indent">These conditions are arduous, but by no means intolerable. +White men <i>do</i> live in the islands and steadily work without +impairing their health. The absence of sudden changes +enables one to dress for the climate without fear of catching +cold. Herein the climate is preferable to that of some of our +larger cities, such as New York or St. Louis, where intense +heat with humidity alternate with sudden chills.</p> + +<p class="indent">Malarial fever is one of the curses of the Philippines; but +this disease is found in all countries imperfectly tilled and +drained, and there, as elsewhere, it disappears in the face of +cleanliness and intelligent sanitation. Some cities and districts +which at one time were almost wholly uninhabitable +have been freed entirely of malaria by thorough drainage. +The Spanish, with characteristic indolence, have as a rule +endured the ravages of the disease rather than incur the cost +and labor of preventive measures. Weyler—the dreadful, +blood-drinking Weyler—who was for a time Captain-General +of the Philippines, at one time lost the greater part of his +army from a fever which might have been averted with proper +care. Cholera is not epidemic in the Philippines; neither is +smallpox, though both diseases have at different times swept +through cities and districts in the train of filth and carelessness.</p> + +<p class="indent">As for the natives, Professor Worcester gives them, on +the whole, a fairly good character. The aboriginal tribes, +Negritoes, or "little niggers," are, like our own Indians, nearly +extinct. The pagan Malays are bold, warlike, treacherous, +but they are not numerous, being confined largely to the +northern islands, and even the Spaniards were able, by keeping +firearms out of their reach, to prevent them from becoming +seriously dangerous. The Mohammedan Malays are +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 18]</span> +more formidable. To the fierceness and treachery of their +pagan congeners, their faith has added a savage fanaticism +which takes the form of special hatred for the Christian. +They are fatalists, and hence fearless in battle, and their +priests teach them that for every Christian slain they will be +rewarded with a new peri in paradise.</p> + +<p class="indent">There are forty thousand Chinese in the islands, including +some coolies, but the greater part are engaged in retail trade, +which in some districts they entirely monopolize. Scarcely +any village is without its Chinese shop.</p> + +<p class="indent">The most numerous and important portion of the population +is the half-caste element—Malay-Chinese and Malay-Caucasian, +generally Spanish. The creole Spaniards affect +to despise these "half-cousins," especially the friars, though +it is said that the friars are responsible for the existence +of most of them. As a matter of fact, however, the half-castes +constitute the great "middle classes" of the population, +and are far and away the most tractable, intelligent, and +in every way promising for the purposes of a civilized government. +Not a few of them are intelligent and fairly educated. +Aguinaldo himself is said to be a Malay-Chinese. +The Spaniards, never violently addicted to labor, allowed +these people to do the greater part of such work as shop-tending, +bookkeeping, etc., so that, in the opinion of Professor +Worcester, they would be available for the minor positions +of government, under the direction of American chiefs.</p> + +<p class="indent">Much will depend on how these half-castes are treated. +Senor Nicholas Estévanez, at one time Spanish Minister of +War, gives friendly warning to the Americans, not to copy the +mistakes of his own countrymen in taking for granted the +inferiority of the native Filipinos. This was one stumbling-block +to the peacefulness of Spanish rule in the islands, +though not, of course, the only one. In a very interesting +article in the <i>North American Review</i>, Senor Estévanez tells +of the trials and injustices endured by these really patient and +peaceful people at the hands of "impure priests and merchants +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 19]</span> +without a conscience." Disraeli said, "Race is the key +to history." But race distinctions can be overworked, and if +our people enter upon the government of the islands too +strongly prepossessed with the idea of their own superiority, +they will simply be making unnecessary trouble for themselves.</p> + +<p class="indent">In one respect at least we shall start with a great advantage +over the Spanish. It is not easy to picture American +rulers oppressing a subject race on the score of religion. +The Spanish, on the other hand, made baptism the test of +loyalty from the very start. "They wanted," says Senor +Estévanez, "no subjects who would not begin by having +water poured on their heads." The natives, on the other +hand, were willing to submit in all else, but insisted on +retaining their religion. "So, for the sake of a few drops of +water, we had three centuries of war."</p> + +<p class="indent">Such a people is not devoid of sterling qualities. Troy +itself stood out for only ten years against the Greeks; Mindanao +resisted the Spaniards for three hundred years. If we +profit by the example of our predecessors we may accomplish +in a few months what they failed to do in all that long period.</p> + +<p class="indent">The game is well worth the candle. All authentic accounts +of the islands agree that they are rich beyond computation in +natural resources—forest, mine, and soil. The Spaniards +have, even in their slothful, unskilled and clumsy fashion, +taken out untold wealth; but they only scratched the field; +most of what remains is practically virgin soil. True, there +is lack of all civilized methods; railroads must be built and +labor is hard to find. But such difficulties have never yet +daunted a virile race, and they will not for long deter the +Americans.</p> + +<hr /> + +<p class="indent">The difficulties of which I have spoken thus far are material; +there are others much deeper in their origin and more +apt to give pause to this giant enterprise. I refer now to +what might be called the subjective obstacles to success; the +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 20]</span> +qualities inherent in ourselves and in our own government +which rise up now to impede the pathway to success.</p> + +<p class="indent">"Providence protects little children and the United +States," is a saying in the diplomatic world, referring to the +good luck, as some call it, or the special gift for rising to +sudden emergencies, as we ourselves prefer to say, which in +many difficult crises has kept us safe from harm or helped us +to success. But now, as Speaker Reed said the other day, +"we have burst our swaddling-clothes." We have, let us +hope, put away childish things and put on the garment of +national manhood. As one of the great powers we must no +longer rely upon child-luck. The great task before us calls +for the strength, soberness and consistency of the adult.</p> + +<p class="indent">It will not, for example, be consistent with the character +of a world power to apply to the government of new colonies +the same methods, or lack of method, that has prevailed in +the government of our cities and some of our states. We +cannot hope for success if we carry the spoils system into the +difficult administration of foreign lands and people. Colonial +work calls for special fitness in the civil service, for long and +careful training. Shall we turn it over to the politicians, +who have thus far, with some honorable exceptions, monopolized +our diplomatic service. As a rule, our consuls and +ministers, and even our ambassadors, have been patriots with +"claims upon the administration"—not based upon special +education and fitness, but for political service rendered. +As a result, many—perhaps even a majority—of our representatives +abroad have distinguished themselves and their +country by such antics as were explained or forgiven only because +the men <i>were</i> Americans, and therefore protected by +that "special providence" of which I have spoken. Is it +imagined that we can administer colonies after this method? +If so, a great and painful surprise is in store for us.</p> + +<p class="indent">For the present administration it must be said that the +President's choice of men for work in the new colonies +inspires the hope of better things. In the Philippine Commission, +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 21]</span> +for example, every man has justified his selection by +special ability or experience, or both. If this course be followed +to the end the nation is relieved at the start of a +grave anxiety. Let us hope that it is so.</p> + +<p class="indent">But with even the best intentions we have difficulties to +face that are not due to any fault of our own, but are rather +inherent in our institutions, in our form of government. +Ours is a democracy, with all the virtues and all the defects +of that form of government. It is obvious that such work +as is now to be done in the East calls for a strong central +executive force. Russia has been able to fortify her position +in the East not only because she is rich and powerful, +but because her form of government is an autocracy. Germany +is, in name at least, a constitutional monarchy, but it is +because her government owns and administers the railroads, +and a powerful and perfectly organized militarism permeates +the whole fabric, that she has been able to make such advance +as a world power since she became an empire at Versailles. +There is no time here to elaborate these propositions, +but they are obviously true.</p> + +<p class="indent">Our government, on the other hand, is designedly weak +in the executive and strong in the legislative department. +When we broke away, at the beginning of our history, from +a monarchy and from a monarch who was impatient of legislative +interference, the pendulum swang to the other side, +carrying us to the opposite extreme. We safeguarded ourselves +against the possibility of a central power of overweening +strength. And all our history has been the history +of a powerful legislative and a comparatively weak executive. +To us bureaucracy is hateful. We protest as a people +against an office-holding class. Every citizen feels that he +too may become an office-holder—is looking forward, possibly, +to that consummation. This may explain the indulgence +with which we regard the faults of those actually in +office. If at the end of its term in office an administration is +able to account in some way for all the money it has handled, +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 22]</span> +no further questions are asked. As to the quality of the service +rendered for the money, that is a matter not to be dwelt +upon with painful emphasis.</p> + +<p class="indent">Such laxity will hardly suffice for the administration +of colonies planted amidst remote peoples of another race, +requiring delicate handling and the tactful management +which can come only from special knowledge and training. +Nor is such special knowledge to be gained in the brief term +of one administration's power. Much less can the matter be +left to the national luck or even the national cleverness. +"There are some difficulties," said one of our public men +recently, "that do not yield to mere enthusiasm." We must +have a strong administrative arm to the government, and the +question is, how such an adjunct is to be fitted upon the existing +institutions, theories and traditions of our government. +I do not doubt that it <i>will</i> be; simply point out that here is +a matter for profound thought and honest endeavor along +new lines. "There is no form of government," said Dr. +Franklin to his colleagues in the federal convention, "that +may not be a blessing if it is well administered." There is +no legitimate task or emergency to which our government +may not prove adequate if wisely and liberally directed. We +cannot throw overboard the wisdom of our fathers, but we +are bound to construe the precepts they laid down in the light +of new emergencies as they arise. The words of Lincoln, +uttered in 1860 at Cooper Union, when the extension or repression +of slavery was before the country as an issue, are +equally applicable to the issue which confronts us now:</p> + +<blockquote><p class="indent">"I do not say that we are bound to follow implicitly +in whatever our fathers did. To do that would +be to discard the lights of current experience, to +reject all progress, all improvement. What I do say +is that if we would supplant the opinions and policy +of the fathers in any case, we should do so on evidence +so conclusive that even their great authority, +fairly considered and weighed, cannot stand."</p></blockquote> + +<p class="indent"><span class="pagenum">[Pg 23]</span> +I firmly believe that we shall be able to develop for our +new colonies an administrative branch sufficiently strong for +the successful conduct of their affairs and yet preserve all +the essentials of republican government.</p> + +<p class="indent">It may be conceded that the viceregal office, with its regal +functions and authority, is essential to British rule in India. +Yet, properly considered, England is as truly a democracy as +the United States.</p> + +<p class="indent">Indeed, there is both education and inspiration for us in +the study of the British rule in India. Not by any means +that it is perfect—what human institution is perfect? Man +is selfish, thoughtless, cruel. The opium traffic, both in +India and China, and the introduction of the whiskey "peg" +among a "heathen" race, which, with all its faults, preserved +for so many centuries the virtue of temperance—these are +blots—big, dark, indelible blots—on the good name of England. +Nor is it wholly without reason that the complaint is +so often made that legislation for India is too often inspired +by the desires of Birmingham and Manchester, rather than +by the needs of Hindustan.</p> + +<p class="indent">But there are spots on the sun of a splendid performance. +There are seven thousand miles of "black water" +between the British Isles and Hindustan. The population of +the former is thirty-five millions; of the latter, two hundred +and fifty millions—one-fifth of the human race. Yet this vast +peninsular is held in absolute subjection by the people of +those "tight little isles" so far away. In the whole civil and +military establishment of British India there are but one hundred +thousand whites, as against nearly twice that number of +natives. How small a numerical force to rule those teeming +millions! And yet, year by year the British element grows +smaller and the native element larger and more potent in the +government of India. "The English," says Mr. G. W. Steevens +in a recent letter to the London <i>Mail</i>, "are still the dominant +race, but the real ruler of India is the Babu."</p> + +<p class="indent">If the natives were a peaceful, intelligent, or even a homogeneous +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 24]</span> +race, the story would still read like a fairy tale. Far +from it. Three-fourths of the number are Hindus of many +races, sects and schools, but there are sixty million Mohammedans +(more than the total population of the Sultan's domain), +besides Sikhs, Janis, Parsees, etc.,—a score or more +races of more or less turbulent savages, many of them ready +at a moment's notice to cut the throat of any white man, if +they only dared.</p> + +<p class="indent">The climate, at least during the hot season, is almost +death to white men, and certain death to white children. +The English accordingly send their children "home" to be +educated and spend their tender years. This means not only +the anguish of separation but also a heavy expense, which, in +the present depreciated state of the rupee, is hardly borne.</p> + +<p class="indent">The native princes, great and small, ignorant for the most +part, idle, bigoted, superstitious, and naturally jealous of +white rule, do what they can to block the wheels of progress +and embarrass the government. Herein they have the eager +co-operation of the priests, who are jealous of foreign influence +and often able to inflame the people into open resistance +to the most wholesome orders and regulations. Popular +ignorance and superstition lend themselves readily to such +mischievous designs. A mutiny may be started by a government +order to build a sewer or to vaccinate the inhabitants of +a village. It is easy for the priests to persuade their docile +charges that vaccination is witchcraft and an instrument of the +devil. The policy of the government is tender of native sensibilities, +and humors religious and caste distinctions; but the +smallest accident or mistake may precipitate a riot or undo +the good work of years.</p> + +<p class="indent">Those who have read Kipling's stories of native Indian +life have a picture more than photographically accurate of +"paternal government" under difficulties. Nor is it inconsistent +with perverse human nature that much of the government's +trouble comes from the well-meant but pernicious +interference of globe-trotting M. P.'s and parochial statesmen +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 25]</span> +who have solved the problem from afar and come out to +India to fan the discontent of pampered natives or aggravate +the perplexities of overworked civil servants, held up to execration +as the "overpaid and aristocratic favorites of a wasteful +government." England, as well as America, has her anti-imperialists.</p> + +<p class="indent">Yet, in spite of these and a thousand other difficulties and +discouragements, a great and really good work goes on, making +steadily for the moral and material uplift of the unthankful +blacks. Popular education struggles forward against the +bigotry and deep-rooted folly of ages. Public roads and other +improvements lessen the tremendous distances between field +and market, and so lessen the chances of famine. Rivers are +deflected and canals built to irrigate waste places and make +the desert blossom and bear fruit. Folly and extravagance +are restrained in high places; system is established in place +of chaos, and the hereditary pauper is taught the blessings of +self-support. In something like a century much has been +done to reform abuses which, like the pedigree of a rajah, run +back through many centuries. True, much still remains to be +done; but take it by and with, good and bad together, I know +of no other chapter in history so creditable to the race +as this.</p> + +<p class="indent">As I have said, here is a lesson to us, teaching some of the +difficulties we must encounter in the Philippines; but is it +not also an inspiration, showing what may be done by patient +persistence and a high ambition to do our part, in order that +we may leave the world better—if only a little better—than +we found it? Such an aim is no less praiseworthy in a nation +than in an individual; is it not especially worthy of a nation +which already, in its short career, has furnished a model of +good government and a plea for human rights the world over?</p> + +<p class="indent">But nations, once more like individuals, do not stand +alone in the world, apart from their fellows—independent, +isolated, self-sufficient. Each is part of a group, scheme or +family, and all are interdependent for help, growth, for their +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 26]</span> +very existence. The Philippines, rich and desirable as they +are in themselves and for what they contain, strike the eye of +intelligence with much greater force as a part of that complex +and highly important system generally known as "the +East." At this immediate juncture they are to all the great +powers an object of desire and ambition, by reason of their +nearness and close relation to the great Empire of China. In +the hands of Spain this phase of the islands' importance +was nearly or quite eclipsed, for Spain has no part in the +great game of empire which engrosses the virile and progressive +powers.</p> + +<p class="indent">The accident of war has done that which international +laws and comity forbade. Much as the European powers +desired the Philippines, none of them dared to lay hand upon +the islands, fearing not the resistance of Spain, but the jealousy +of their rivals. The explosion of the Maine thus became +a swift and powerful factor in that game of world politics +from which we had up to now kept aloof. In the language of +the philosopher Dooley, few of our people could have answered, +eighteen months ago, whether the Philippines were +"islands or canned goods." They played no part in the +scheme of our national life. Chance has given them into our +hands, and it remains with ourselves to determine whether +we are to turn them to account, not only for themselves, but +for what they may be made, in their relation to other and +larger prizes.</p> + +<p class="indent">All Europe has listened with mingled incredulity and exasperation +to the protests of our anti-expansionists against +the annexation of the Philippines. To those who are familiar +with the situation in the East and realize the importance of +China to the West, it seems incredible that a sane and civilized +people should even dream of throwing away so rich a +prize, now that chance had thrown it into their hands. Is +it hypocrisy or ignorance? Europe can see no other explanation.</p> + +<p class="indent">But still the opponents of expansion continue to ask, +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 27]</span> +What have we to do with China? Why should the United +States concern itself to guard the "open door" in that empire, +or to prevent the establishment of "spheres of influence?"—the +latter being the polite phrase of diplomacy for +chopping up China and dividing the pieces among the great +powers.</p> + +<p class="indent">The plain answer of commerce to these questions is +afforded by the statistics of China's foreign trade. Yonder is +a vast domain with a population estimated at four hundred +and thirty millions—about one-third of the human race—largely +dependent for even the simple necessities upon the +outside world.</p> + +<p class="indent">England was the first to batter down the ancient gates of +the empire, and she has her reward in that she holds about +sixty-four per cent of China's import trade. England's nearest +competitor is the United States, with eight per cent, the +remaining twenty-eight per cent being divided among the +other powers, with Japan at the head of the list. Our own +share does not at first glance appear very large, but it should +be explained that as a great proportion of our commodities +are carried to China in English bottoms and consigned to +English houses, it is classified as English business—a part of +the sixty-four per cent. The actual discrepancy, therefore, +is not so great as the apparent. Moreover, though the beginnings +of our trade with China date from the last century, we +have not been an appreciable factor in the market until about +three years ago, since which time our trade has increased at +a rate of speed which has both surprised and alarmed our +competitors.<a name="FNanchor_2_2" id="FNanchor_2_2"></a><a href="#Footnote_2_2" class="fnanchor">[2]</a></p> + +<div class="footnotes"> +<div class="footnote"><p class="indent"><a name="Footnote_2_2" id="Footnote_2_2"></a><a href="#FNanchor_2_2"><span class="label">[2]</span></a> The following account of our exports to China was prepared recently by +an intelligent and reliable newspaper correspondent. It is of interest in this +connection: +</p> + +<p class="indent">Exports of merchandise to China in the fiscal year about to end will be +larger than those of any preceding year in our history. Ten years ago our +exports to China were less than $3,000,000, and to China and Hong Kong combined +little more than $6,000,000. In the fiscal year ending 1899, our exports +to China will be more than $13,000,000, and to Hong Kong more than $6,000,000, +making a total of more than $20,000,000, or three times that of a decade +earlier. That the bulk of exports to Hong Kong may properly be considered +as ultimately destined for consumption in China, is shown by the fact that the +official reports of the imports into China show that more than forty-four per +cent of these imports are from the port of Hong Kong. The 1899 exports to +China and Hong Kong combined will show a gain of nearly or quite twenty-five +per cent over those of last year, while the total exports from the United +States for the fiscal year 1899 will be little if any in excess of those of last +year. This shows a more rapid growth in our exports to this part of the world +than elsewhere. +</p> + +<p class="indent"> +The following table, prepared by the Treasury Bureau of Statistics, shows +the value of our exports to China and Hong Kong during the past decade: +</p> + +<table style="width:90%;" border="0" summary="timelines"> +<tr> + <td>Year ending</td> + <td></td> + <td></td> + <td></td> +</tr> +<tr> + <td><i>June 30.</i></td> + <td><i>China.</i></td> + <td><i>Hong Kong.</i></td> + <td><i>Total.</i></td> +</tr> +<tr> + <td>1889</td> + <td>$2,791,128</td> + <td>$3,686,384</td> + <td>$6,477,512</td> +</tr> +<tr> + <td>1890</td> + <td> 2,946,206</td> + <td> 4,439,153</td> + <td> 7,385,362</td> +</tr> +<tr> + <td>1891</td> + <td> 8,701,008</td> + <td> 4,768,697</td> + <td>13,469,705</td> +</tr> +<tr> + <td>1892</td> + <td> 5,663,497</td> + <td> 4,894,049</td> + <td>10,557,546</td> +</tr> +<tr> + <td>1893</td> + <td> 3,900,457</td> + <td> 4,216,602</td> + <td> 8,117,059</td> +</tr> +<tr> + <td>1894</td> + <td> 5,862,429</td> + <td> 4,209,847</td> + <td>10,072,273</td> +</tr> +<tr> + <td>1895</td> + <td> 3,693,840</td> + <td> 4,253,040</td> + <td> 7,856,880</td> +</tr> +<tr> + <td>1896</td> + <td> 6,921,933</td> + <td> 4,691,201</td> + <td>11,613,134</td> +</tr> +<tr> + <td>1897</td> + <td>11,924,433</td> + <td> 6,060,039</td> + <td>17,984,472</td> +</tr> +<tr> + <td>1898</td> + <td> 9,992,894</td> + <td> 6,265,200</td> + <td>16,258,094</td> +</tr> +<tr> + <td>1899 (estimated)</td> + <td>13,500,000</td> + <td> 6,500,000</td> + <td>20,000,000</td> +</tr> +</table> +</div> +</div> + +<p class="indent"><span class="pagenum">[Pg 28]</span> +Significant as these figures are, a full understanding of +our trade conditions in the far East, and the importance of +that market to our prospects, can hardly be gained without a +backward glance over the events of the past three decades.</p> + +<p class="indent">Up to the collapse of the French at Sedan, or perhaps +until 1873, Great Britain stood without a rival in trade and +manufactures. That year will long be remembered, in England +as in America, as the beginning of the era of low prices. +In England agricultural products were the first to suffer, on +account of the importation of food products from Australia +and the Americas. This movement continued to increase and +British farms proportionately to suffer until, by 1879, that +property, the backbone of English hereditary wealth, ceased +entirely to pay. The sending away of money to buy food, +together with the fall in the prices of home products, so +affected the home supply of gold that, in order to preserve +the equilibrium, the English began to realize on their foreign +investments.</p> + +<p class="indent">The greatest panic in history followed. Previous to 1876 +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 29]</span> +England had always been able to maintain her expanding +currency and supply the arts with the gold brought in to pay +for her exports. In 1877 the tide turned, and the whole +ensuing decade actually showed a net export of gold amounting +to $11,000,000, besides what went into the melting-pot. +Contraction and the fall of prices continued, and in proportion +the sale of foreign securities. By 1890 England had +brought back enough gold to restore her balance, but at what +a cost to the debtor nations! Argentina and Australia collapsed +in turn, the former pulling down the great Baring concern. +In 1893 disaster overtook the United States, and it is +scarcely exaggeration to say that the Republic was shaken to +the center. Then came the demonetization of silver in India +and the falling rupee, followed by distress amounting almost +to the dissolution of society.</p> + +<p class="indent">Such, in brief, is the history of the movement which has +resulted in the titanic struggle for the few remaining open markets +of the world. Falling prices and reduced profits mean +increase of production, which in turn require new markets. +We in the United States had been careful to secure the home +market to ourselves, but in this crisis the home market proved +sadly inadequate. Our manufacturers must needs go forth +and compete with European wages and standards of living +for the markets of the world.</p> + +<p class="indent">The story of their success is one of the romances of industry +and trade. In the face of a natural hostility aroused by +our own tariffs, and compelled to pay for a higher standard of +living, our manufacturers have gone into the markets of the +world and undersold their European competitors at every +point. Carrying coals to Newcastle were child's play in comparison +with what these modern captains of industry have +accomplished. The story is told in the statistics of our export +trade: In 1898 the balance of trade in our favor was $2,000,000 +for every working day, or more than $600,000,000. For +the first time since the War of the Rebellion, the interest on +our securities held in England is not enough to pay for our +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 30]</span> +exports, and the extinction of our floating debt abroad is +clearly foreshadowed.</p> + +<p class="indent">But how long is this to continue? With our experience of +tariffs we need not be reminded that low prices do not command +markets. Continental Europe does not like us. We +saw that during the Spanish war, and we have heard it since +in various impatient declarations of hostility, at Berlin or +Vienna, far more significant than official assurances of distinguished +consideration. Indeed, if Germany, or France, or +Russia does not openly break with us, it is because fear +or prudence is stronger than inclination. The moment any +one or all of them combined feels able to slam the door in our +face without fear of reprisals, the door will be slammed.</p> + +<p class="indent">Germany and more especially Russia are straining every +nerve to establish in China "spheres of influence," which is +the polite phrase of diplomacy for cutting up the Celestial +Empire and dividing the pieces among the powers. England, +on the other hand, favors maintaining the integrity of China +and the "open door" of commerce to all comers. It may +be that England's preference is due to the reasonable fear +that at the "spheres-of-influence" game she may be (if she +be not already) beaten by her continental neighbors; whereas +with an "open door" her chances would be as good, if +not better than the others. If so, England is as disinterested +as her neighbors—and no more so. Each and all are after +China. "China for trade!" is the slogan. Even the pretense +of missionary design has been dropped, so desperate is +the struggle; for China, with her four hundred and thirty +millions of people, is the sole remaining market of the world. +If Germany and Russia get it, they will shut out England, +and the United States as well. Can they do it?</p> + +<p class="indent">In his recent tour across our continent, Lord Charles +Beresford openly advocated the co-operation of the United +States and England to secure an undivided China and the +"open door." His argument was simple. England alone +might not, and the United States alone certainly would not, +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 31]</span> +be able to secure this end. Together they could hardly fail. +Not that Lord Charles advocated open war. On the contrary, +he pointed out that not a cent need be spent nor a gun fired. +It only needs that the two great English-speaking nations +should declare their joint policy, saying to all the rest of the +world: "China must not be cut to bits. The empire which +has stood for four thousand years must remain." Then to +China herself: "We have saved you from destruction. In +return you must keep your market open to all the world, letting +us build railroads, telegraphs, canals, what not, throughout +your territory. If you don't, we—England and the +United States—will do it for you."</p> + +<p class="indent">It is an attractive programme. Lord Charles Beresford +may be too confident—he may even be not entirely candid—when +he professes that there is no possibility of war in the +joint policy he advocates. But all the chances favor his side +of the argument. At any rate, I believe it is worth trying. +Such a policy means much for the United States. It means a +share, and an honorable share, in the great game which is to +engross the powers at the outset of the twentieth century. It +means a chance, and a good chance, for a market for our surplus +products. That market we <i>must have</i>. How else are we +to get it? Suppose we hold aloof and see their gates and +the gates of China shut in our faces by the powers of Continental +Europe, even as we have closed our gates against them +and their products—what are we to do with our surplus? +What are we to do if that surplus be thrown back on our +hands? We should have our choice of (1) going flat and +hopelessly bankrupt, as no nation was ever bankrupt before; +or (2) reducing our scale of living to the German, perhaps +even the Russian standard. It would be a hard choice.</p> + +<p class="indent">So, in great measure, the Philippines mean for us a foothold +in the East and a strong leverage on China. Would +our co-operation be sought at this time, as it has been, not +only by England but by Germany, if George Dewey had not +sailed his ships into the harbor of Manila on the night of the +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 32]</span> +30th of April, 1898, dodging the sunken mines and torpedoes, +that he might on the morrow fire "the shot heard round the +world?" On that day and since then the world learned that +we are a nation not only of shopkeepers and money-grabbers, +but also of fighters; that in a prolonged war we stand unconquerable, +irresistable. A year and a day ago we were a nation; +to-day we are a power, and have only to assert ourselves +as such.</p> + +<p class="indent">Doubtless it was in perfect good faith that Professor Bryce +wrote, a few weeks ago:</p> + +<blockquote><p class="indent">"The United States has already a great and splendid +mission in building up between the oceans a free, +happy and prosperous nation of two hundred millions +of people.... The policy of creating great +armaments and of annexing territories beyond the +sea would be an un-American policy and a complete +departure from the maxims—approved by long +experience—of the illustrious founders of the Republic."</p></blockquote> + +<p class="indent">But I fancy the illustrious founders of the Republic would +see the wisdom, were they living to-day, of securing that advantage +which the fortunes of war has thrown into our lap. +I doubt if even their wisdom could have pointed a way +whereby we could relinquish the Philippines without also letting +go our prestige, if not also our honor. How can we +abandon them, either to internecine strife and anarchy, or, +more probably, to the cupidity of the powers whose statesmen +recognize the value of the islands, and have no compunctions +of conscience as to how they may be secured?</p> + +<p class="indent">But I appeal to the founders of the Republic for another +and yet a stronger argument for holding fast to all our new +possessions, whether in the Pacific or in the Carribean Sea. +In the society of the illustrious dead let us go back for a little +space over the years that have elapsed since the civil war. +I am no pessimist; on the contrary, I see in every man and +every thing, however evil—so that the Lord gives them a +place in His own great scheme—an agency for good. But I +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 33]</span> +do not find it easy to look back with pride or even patience +upon the last five and thirty years of this century. To me they +appear the most inglorious in our history. They have been +years of unequalled material growth, but, I think, they have +been years of unequalled moral deterioration also. We have +waxed fat, arrogant and ungodly. We have lost respect for +the law. We have learned to wink at corruption in high +places. The tongue of scandal wags unrebuked at the great, +the exalted. Greater fortunes than were ever known before +have been piled up; but if wealth and extravagance have +attained to new forms of luxury, so want has learned a keener +edge of suffering. We have seen labor in armed revolt and +anarchy showing its ugly head. Our federal Senate reeks +with disrepute. The golden calf has been set up in the market +place, the forum, even in the sanctuary.</p> + +<p class="indent">This, to be sure, is but one side of the picture; there is +another and a brighter side. The period I speak of has been +athrill with intense activity, for good as well as evil. If vice +has been active, so have the agencies of virtue. Churches, +colleges, charitable and reform societies have sprung up and +grown as never before. When the call to arms came last +year it was answered on every hand—by the pampered favorites +of wealth and luxury as well as by the sons of toil.</p> + +<p class="indent">Patriotism has not been dead, but sleeping. In time of +peril we have never lacked Deweys, Roosevelts, Funstons, +Hobsons, to fulfill the traditions of the race. Our fault has +been the absence of that patient, unsleeping vigilance which +is the price of honest government—not in war but in the +humdrum days of peace.</p> + +<p class="indent">Perhaps it was only human that when the rebellion had +been crushed and the Union restored, we should relax somewhat +the strain of those four dreadful years and turn to long-neglected +private fortunes. The field lay fallow; a vast +public domain was opened; virgin forests awaited the axe. +In the flush of general gratitude for the preservers of the +Union the floodgates of public expenditure were opened wide, +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 34]</span> +and its outpouring was not always watched with too keen +an eye. Too often the Republic was generous before it +was just.</p> + +<p class="indent">Moreover—and this is the point I wish especially to +make—we had no jealous or aggressive neighbors to vex our +frontier. The powers of Europe tore a leaf from the experience +of Napoleon III. when Mr. Seward warned that presumptuous +monarch out of Mexico, and left us to enjoy in +peace our new prosperity. The men who had been serving +their country at the front came home to mind their own private +concerns. Seeing the Republic preserved and safe from +intrusion, they turned to money-making with the same ardor +that had carried them to victory in war. Intent upon this +new occupation, they left politics to the politicians. The latter +were not slow to see their opportunity. Millions of immigrants, +unused to the franchise, untrained in the duties of +citizenship, came in at our open doors. Tens and hundreds +of thousands settled in the cities, where they became the +convenient tool of the "boss."</p> + +<p class="indent">Under our system government is by parties, and parties +imply the existence of the "machine," an institution which, +like fire, is a good servant but may become a terrible master. +So long as the machine is operated for the good of the party +and the party for the state, the best results are possible. But +when state or city become subservient to party and party to +machine, such corruption is inevitable, as has been brought +to light more than once in our metropolis. And New York +is no worse than Chicago, or Philadelphia, or Boston, or Cincinnati. +All our large cities and some of our states are governed +by irresponsible pirates, who marshal their perfectly +organized bands of the ignorant and vicious, in defiance alike +of law and of the plain will of the intelligent and well-intentioned +majority; for these latter, we must assume, are +in the majority. It is only because they have been absorbed +in their private affairs that they have allowed the sacred prerogative +of government, the delicate machinery of the state, +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 35]</span> +to become the special privileges of unscrupulous men whom +they would scarcely trust inside their houses. This dreadful +price we have paid for thirty years of "peaceful isolation."</p> + +<p class="indent">It is the theory of democratic government that the majority +rules. Sixty-five years ago, de Tocqueville after his memorable +tour through our country recorded his "firm belief" +that for the Republic to be virtuous and progressive, we +had "<i>but to will it</i>." "It depends upon themselves," he +wrote, "whether the principle of equality is to lead them to +knowledge or barbarism, servitude or freedom, prosperity or +wretchedness." The French philosopher spoke truly, and it +is true now. If we have sunk into an ignoble servitude to the +baser elements of society, it is because those of the better sort +have "willed it"—not designedly, but through a no less reprehensible +apathy and blindness in respect of their obligations +to the state.</p> + +<p class="indent">I may be sadly in error, but I believe the present low tone +of our internal politics to be due to the long and peaceful +isolation of the Republic. So I hold the comparative cleanliness +of English politics, and especially of the government of +their cities, such as London, Liverpool, Leeds, Birmingham, +Manchester, Belfast, etc., to be a natural result of England's +activity in the high politics of the world. The continual danger, +in theory at least, of encroachment or invasion upon the +limitless frontier of that vast empire acts as a stimulant to +patriotism and invests even the petty politics of city and +parish with an interest beyond that of spoils. It is said that +England is never wholly at peace. In every continent her +standard is raised. Her nerves of sensibility and self-interest +run to the uttermost parts of the earth. They are rooted in +the hearts of her bravest and best, as well as of the lowliest +and most unworthy, and all join in common patriotism reaching +from pole to pole, not only of the material world but of +the social fabric. Therein is England's strength. Kipling's +lines are apropos:</p> + +<p class="margin-left8"> +"What should they know of England<br /> + Who only England know?"</p> + +<p class="indent"><span class="pagenum">[Pg 36]</span> +We have no need to follow abjectly in the footsteps of +England; I would not have the Republic walk behind any +other nation. We must work out our own salvation. And +we can. Latent in the heart of our people is the spirit and +the power for greater things than the world has ever seen. +Our place is in the vanguard of civilization. We have but to +take it. I have tried to show that self-interest in material +things pulls us in the same direction as does that higher, +spiritual interest, the aim and desire to be great of heart as +well as body; to be clean, dignified—a power for good. We +have suffered from what may well be called the perils of too +great security. In our engrossing pursuit of wealth we have +neglected higher things. I venture to quote the words of a +South Carolina judge, delivered in a recent lynching case, +which seem to me to touch the heart of the matter.</p> + +<p class="indent">"We have made improvements," said he, "in our manufactures; +our railway systems have been improved; we have +spent money on our schools. But with what result? Swiftly +moving railways, whirling machinery, crowded factory towns +and schools—all these are infinitely inadequate to the glory +and civilization of the people. <i>Is our moral fibre growing +weaker?</i> The law has lost its sanctity during the past forty +years, and the essential foundation of all civilization is respect +for the law.... We can all do something, but first +of all we must recognize and humbly confess our shortcomings—the +sooner the better. We can have no real civilization +until we turn our faces to the light."</p> + +<p class="indent">Is this indictment too severe? I believe not. Here in +the North we are not greatly vexed with lynchings; our disrespect +for the law assumes other forms. But the same weakening +of the moral fibre is to be observed everywhere as in +North Carolina. We too have need of humility; we must +confess our shortcomings. We have but to ask ourselves, +What would it avail civilization if we were to give to Santiago +de Cuba, or Manila, or Honolulu a government as essentially +corrupt as that which we tolerate in New York or Chicago? +<span class="pagenum">[Pg 37]</span> +Shall we offer to the savages of Luzon or Mindanao for a +model the spectacle of a government from which the rich, the +virtuous and the intelligent almost wholly abstain, shirking +their duties and relegating their most sacred prerogative to +the ignorant and depraved?</p> + +<p class="indent">But if, on the other hand, we set up good government in +the colonies, how long shall we be content with misrule at +home? Not long, I promise you. "It is one of the most +beautiful compensations of this life," says the wise man, +"that no man can sincerely try to help another without helping +himself." No less true is this of nations. The eyes of the +world are upon us and the conscience of civilization will hold +us strictly accountable. As we deal with those ignorant wards +whom the God of Battles has given into our keeping, even so +shall we be dealt with. And in uplifting them from barbarism +so shall we be uplifted.</p> + +<p class="indent">What nobler business is there, for man or nation? And +who should lead in it if not ourselves? First, though, let us +approach the work in true humility, confessing our own faults +and shortcomings. Guard us, heaven, against the triple sin +of pride, arrogance, and self-conceit. Let us ever keep in +mind those noble words of the young Laureate of Empire, +written for England at the climax of her greatness, but no less +fitting for ourselves:</p> + +<p class="margin-left8"> +"If, drunk with power, we loose<br /> + Wild words that have not Thee in awe—<br /> + Such boastings as the Gentiles use,<br /> + Or lesser breeds, without the Law—<br /> + Lord God of Hosts, be with us yet,<br /> + Lest we forget, lest we forget!"</p> + + + + + + + + +<pre> + + + + + +End of the Project Gutenberg EBook of The Outlook: Uncle Sam's Place and +Prospects in International Politics, by Newton Macmillan + +*** END OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE OUTLOOK *** + +***** This file should be named 34768-h.htm or 34768-h.zip ***** +This and all associated files of various formats will be found in: + http://www.gutenberg.org/3/4/7/6/34768/ + +Produced by Bryan Ness, Ernest Schaal, and the Online +Distributed Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net (This +book was produced from scanned images of public domain +material from the Google Print project.) + + +Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions +will be renamed. + +Creating the works from public domain print editions means that no +one owns a United States copyright in these works, so the Foundation +(and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United States without +permission and without paying copyright royalties. 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