diff options
| -rw-r--r-- | .gitattributes | 3 | ||||
| -rw-r--r-- | 34086-8.txt | 3348 | ||||
| -rw-r--r-- | 34086-8.zip | bin | 0 -> 70484 bytes | |||
| -rw-r--r-- | 34086-h.zip | bin | 0 -> 77368 bytes | |||
| -rw-r--r-- | 34086-h/34086-h.htm | 5710 | ||||
| -rw-r--r-- | 34086.txt | 3348 | ||||
| -rw-r--r-- | 34086.zip | bin | 0 -> 70469 bytes | |||
| -rw-r--r-- | LICENSE.txt | 11 | ||||
| -rw-r--r-- | README.md | 2 |
9 files changed, 12422 insertions, 0 deletions
diff --git a/.gitattributes b/.gitattributes new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6833f05 --- /dev/null +++ b/.gitattributes @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +* text=auto +*.txt text +*.md text diff --git a/34086-8.txt b/34086-8.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..cc66d36 --- /dev/null +++ b/34086-8.txt @@ -0,0 +1,3348 @@ +The Project Gutenberg eBook, The Ifs of History, by Joseph Edgar Chamberlin + + +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + + + + + +Title: The Ifs of History + + +Author: Joseph Edgar Chamberlin + + + +Release Date: October 16, 2010 [eBook #34086] + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: ISO-8859-1 + + +***START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE IFS OF HISTORY*** + + +E-text prepared by Malcolm Farmer, Julia12000, and the Online Distributed +Proofreading Team (http://www.pgdp.net) from page images generously made +available by Internet Archive/Canadian Libraries +(http://www.archive.org/details/toronto) + + + +Note: Images of the original pages are available through + Internet Archive/Canadian Libraries. See + http://www.archive.org/details/ifsofhistory00chamuoft + + + + + +THE IFS OF HISTORY + +by + +JOSEPH EDGAR CHAMBERLIN + + + + + + + +Philadelphia +Henry Altemus Company + +Copyright, 1907, +by +Howard E. Altemus + + + + +CONTENTS + + + I. IF THEMISTOCLES HAD NOT BEATEN + ARISTIDES IN AN ATHENIAN ELECTION 13 + + II. IF THE MOORS HAD WON THE + BATTLE OF TOURS 21 + + III. IF KING ETHELRED OF ENGLAND + HAD NOT MARRIED THE NORMAN + EMMA 30 + + IV. IF COLUMBUS HAD KEPT HIS + STRAIGHT COURSE WESTWARD 37 + + V. IF QUEEN ELIZABETH OF ENGLAND + HAD LEFT A SON OR DAUGHTER 47 + + VI. IF THE PHILARMONIA HAD NOT + GIVEN CONCERTS AT VICENZA 56 + + VII. IF THE SPANISH ARMADA HAD + SAILED AT ITS APPOINTED TIME 64 + + VIII. IF CHAMPLAIN HAD TARRIED IN + PLYMOUTH BAY 71 + + IX. IF CHARLES II HAD ACCEPTED THE + KINGSHIP OF VIRGINIA 79 + + X. IF ADMIRAL PENN HAD PERSISTED IN + DISOWNING HIS SON WILLIAM 91 + + XI. IF THE BOY GEORGE WASHINGTON + HAD BECOME A BRITISH MIDSHIPMAN 99 + + XII. IF ALEXANDER HAMILTON HAD NOT + WRITTEN ABOUT THE HURRICANE 107 + + XIII. IF LAFAYETTE HAD HELD THE + FRENCH REIGN OF TERROR IN + CHECK 114 + + XIV. IF GILBERT LIVINGSTON HAD NOT + VOTED NEW YORK INTO THE + UNION 121 + + XV. IF THE PIRATE JEAN LAFITTE HAD + JOINED THE BRITISH AT NEW + ORLEANS 129 + + XVI. IF JAMES MACDONNEL HAD NOT + CLOSED THE GATES OF HUGOMONT + CASTLE 138 + + XVII. IF ABRAHAM LINCOLN'S FATHER + HAD MOVED SOUTHWARD, NOT + NORTHWARD 150 + + XVIII. IF SKIPPER JENNINGS HAD NOT RESCUED + CERTAIN SHIPWRECKED + JAPANESE 160 + + XIX. IF ORSINI'S BOMB HAD NOT FAILED + TO DESTROY NAPOLEON III 170 + + XX. IF PRESIDENT JAMES BUCHANAN HAD + ENFORCED THE LAW IN NOVEMBER, + 1860 176 + + XXI. IF THE CONFEDERATES HAD MARCHED + ON WASHINGTON AFTER BULL + RUN 185 + + XXII. IF THE CONFEDERATE STATES HAD + PURCHASED THE EAST INDIA COMPANY'S + FLEET IN 1861 194 + + + + +PREFACE + + +Whether or not we believe that events are consciously ordered before +their occurrence, we are compelled to admit the importance of +Contingency in human affairs. + +If we believe in such an orderly and predetermined arrangement, the +small circumstance upon which a great event may hinge becomes, in our +view, but the instrumentality by means of which the great plan is +operated. It by no means sets aside the vital influence of chance to +assume that "all chance is but direction which we cannot see." + +For instance, the believer in special providences regards as clearly +providential the flight of the flocks of birds which diverted the +course of Columbus from our shores to those of the West Indies; but it +is none the less true that this trivial circumstance caused the great +navigator to turn his prow. + +Those who, on the other hand, reject the idea of special providences, +and treat history as a sequence of occurrences emerging mechanically +from the relations of men with one another, must admit that causes +forever contend with causes, and that the nice balance of action and +reaction may sometimes be influenced radically by even so small a +circumstance as the cackling of the geese of Rome. It is true that the +evolutionist is apt to become a believer in necessity to an extent which +appears unlikely to the mind of the other. Events, in his view, inhere +in the nature and character of men, these in their turn being the result +of the physical circumstances that differentiate the nations. This view +seems at first to reduce the probability that accident will at any time +sensibly alter the course of affairs. + +But if we take historical action and reaction at their moments of +equilibrium, we see that the tide of affairs may sometimes appear to +follow the drift of a feather. Consider, for instance, the declaration +of the Duke of Wellington that the issue of the battle of Waterloo +turned upon the closing of the gates of Hugomont Castle by the hand of +one man. Wellington was certainly in a position to know if this was +true; and in the light of the tremendous events that depended upon the +trifling act, does it not appear that accident for one moment outweighed +in consequence any necessity that inhered in the character of the French +people or that of the nations arrayed against them at Waterloo? It may +be the function of Contingency to correct the overconfidence of the +evolutionist. + +At all events, we cannot dismiss the "if"; there is, as Touchstone says, +much virtue in it. + + J. E. C. + + + + +THE IFS OF HISTORY + + + + +CHAPTER I + +IF THEMISTOCLES HAD NOT BEATEN ARISTIDES IN AN ATHENIAN ELECTION + + +Mithra instead of Jesus! The western world Zoroastrian, not Christian! +The Persian Redeemer, always called the Light of the World in their +scriptures; the helper of Ahura-Mazda, the Almighty, in his warfare with +Ahriman, or Satan; the intercessor for men with the Creator; the Saviour +of humanity; he, Mithra, might have been the central person of the +dominant religion of Europe and modern times, but for certain +developments in Athenian politics in the years between 490 and 480 +B. C. For it is true that in the first three of four centuries of the +Christian era the western world seemed to hesitate between the religion +of Mithra and that of Christ; and if the Persians had completed the +conquest of Greece in the fifth century B. C., Mithra might have so +strengthened his hold upon Europe that the scale would have been turned +forever in his direction. + +What was it that enabled the Greeks, in the crucial test, the ultimate +contingency, to turn back the Persians and maintain their independence? +History says that it was the result of the battles of Marathon and +Salamis, in which the Greeks were triumphant over the Persians. This is +true only in a limited sense. The battle of Marathon, in 490 B. C., did +not save Greece, for the Persians came back again more powerful than +ever. At Thermopylæ, Leonidas and his band died vainly, for the hosts of +Xerxes overran all Greece north of the isthmus of Corinth. They took +Athens, and burned the temples on the Acropolis. They were triumphant on +the land. + +But at Salamis, in the narrow channel between the horseshoe-shaped +island and the Attican mainland, Themistocles, on the 20th day of +September, 480 B. C., adroitly led the great Persian fleet of six +hundred vessels into a trap and defeated it in as heroic a fight as ever +the men of the West fought against the men of the East. Seated on his +"throne," or rather his silver-footed chair, on a hilltop overlooking +the scene, Xerxes, the master of the world, beheld the destruction of +his ships, one by one, by the leagued Greeks. When the battle was over +he saw that the escape of his victorious army from the mainland was +imperiled, and while there was yet time, he led his Persian horde in a +wild flight across his bridge of boats over the Hellespont. The field of +Platæa completed the check, and the Persian invasions of Europe were +over forever. + +What was it that enabled Themistocles to win this decisive victory for +Greece after disastrous defeats on land? Simply his skill in the +politics of Athens. Themistocles was a Hellenic imperialist. He was +opposed by Aristides, who was a very just man, and an anti-imperialist +and "mugwump." Greece was at that time terribly menaced by the Persian +power, and threatened with "Medization," or absorption into the Persian +nationality. Themistocles saw that the country's only chance lay in a +union of all the Hellenes, and in the construction of a navy worth the +name. Aristides was a better orator than he, and at first won against +him in the Athenian elections. The Greek spirit was innately hostile to +anything like centralization or imperialism. But when Ægina, which was +the leading Grecian maritime state, and had some good ships, turned +against Athens and defeated it on the sea, the Athenians' eyes began to +open. Themistocles pushed his plan for the construction of a fleet of +two hundred vessels and the addition of twenty new ships every year to +this navy. + +Squarely across his path stood Aristides, with his ridicule of the +attempt of little Athens to become a maritime power, and his warnings +against militarism. But Themistocles, by adroit politics, led the +Athenians to become sick of Aristides, and persuaded them to ostracize +or banish this just man. Aristides went to Ægina. Then Themistocles +rushed forward his plan of naval reform, and carried it through. The two +hundred ships were built, and not a moment too soon. It was this fleet, +brilliantly led by Themistocles and Eurybiades at Salamis, which +entangled the Persians in the narrow waters of Salamis and defeated +them, and saved Europe for the Europeans. + +The victory saved it also for Christ, by keeping alive the worship of +the half-gods of Greece and Rome until a whole-god came from Judæa. The +Persians, too, had a whole-god. Idea for idea, principle for principle, +tenet for tenet, dream for dream, all of later Judaism and all of +medieval Christianity, except the person and story of Jesus, was in the +religion of Persia. Not only the central ideas of formal Christianity, +but many of its dependent and related principles, are found in +Mithraism, which was the translation of the fundamental philosophic +ideas of Zoroastrianism into terms of human life. The parallel is so +striking that many thinkers regard Christianity merely as Mithraism +bodied forth in a story invented by, or at least told to and believed +by, a circle of primitive and uneducated zealots who knew nothing of the +history of the doctrines they were embracing. + +But notwithstanding the philosophic likeness, the acceptance of +Mithraism as it was held and practiced in Persia in Darius's time, +instead of Christianity, which may have been Mithraism first Judaized +and afterward Romanized, would have made a vast difference with the +western world. If Greece had been Persianized before the rise of Rome's +power, Rome, too, would have been Persianized. The influence of Hebrew +thought upon the western world would have been forestalled. Zoroastrian +rites would have prevailed. Over all would have spread the mysticism of +the East. + +Our civilization might have risen as high as it has ever gone, in art, +in the grace of life; but instead of being inspired with the eager +desire of progress, by the restless Hellenic necessity of doing +something better and higher, or at least something other, something +new--instead of this, the spirit of peace and of satisfaction with old +ideals would have permeated our systems and our life. + +Lord Mithra, too, would have been primarily the sun, primarily an +embodiment of the light shining down to us through the sky from that +central essence which alone can say, "I am that I am," and not, as in +the Lord Christ, a humble, suffering, poor and despised man lifted up +into Godhead. + + + + +CHAPTER II + +IF THE MOORS HAD WON THE BATTLE OF TOURS + + +The most tremendous contingencies in all history--the determination of +the fate of whole continents, whole civilizations, by a single +incident--are sometimes the occurrences that are most completely and +signally ignored by the ordinary citizen. For instance, it does not +occur to the man on the street that but for a turn in the tide of battle +on a certain October day in the year 732, on a sunny field in +northern-central France, he, the man on the street, would to-day be a +devout Mussulman, listening at evening for the muezzin's call from a +neighboring minaret, abjuring pork and every alcoholic beverage, and +shunning stocks and all kinds of speculation as prohibited forms of +gambling. + +Islamism would to-day, but for a single hard-fought battle and its +issue, probably be the established form of religion in all Europe. Even +England would have been unable to resist the onset of the impetuous +Arabs, once they had established themselves in triumph from the Tagus to +the Vistula; and the conversion of all Europe would have carried with it +the Moslemizing of the new world--supposing, indeed, that America had up +to this time been discovered under Moorish auspices, which is unlikely. + +Europe was certainly nearer to conquest by the Moors in the eighth +century than most people suppose. There are few finer or more heroic +episodes in history than the extraordinary series of conquests by means +of which, a handful of fanatical Arabs, inspired by the prophet +Mohammed, carried, with fire and sword, the faith of Islam over the +world, until, within two hundred years of the date of the prophet's +birth, it reigned from the shores of the Atlantic to the banks of the +Indus. Horde after horde of impetuous warriors of the Crescent had +arisen. Their purpose, frankly, was to convert the world, and convert it +by force. Cutting themselves off from their bases of supply, and relying +upon an alliance of miracle and rapine to sustain them, their triumphant +campaigns were one continuous and colossal Sherman's march to the sea. + +They struck Europe at the east, and also by way of the west. Greek fire +checked them at the gates of Constantinople in the east, but they +overran all northern Africa, crossed the Straits of Gibraltar, and +flowed like a torrent over Spain and southern France. By the year 731, +as Gibbon truly says, the whole south of France, from the mouth of the +Garonne to that of the Rhone, had assumed the manners and religion of +Arabia. + +Abd-er-Rahman, the conqueror, reigned supreme in southwestern Europe. +Spain and Portugal had been annexed to Asia, and now the turn of France +had surely come. + +But at this crisis a heroic figure arose in Europe--scarcely an elegant +figure, though a picturesque one. The throne of the Franks had been +seized by an illegitimate son of old King Pepin, a rough and heedless +fighter, whose rule pleased the people better than did that of the +priests and women whom Pepin had left behind him. This bloody-handed +usurper was named Charles, or Karl, and he was destined afterward to be +called Martel, "the Hammer," on account of the iron blows that he struck +upon all who faced him. + +Abd-er-Rahman, the victorious Moor, advanced into northern France, +overthrowing armies with ease, and sacking cities, churches and convents +as he marched. Nothing could stay him, as it appeared. He had planted +the standard of the prophet at the gates of Tours, which is one hundred +and thirty miles, as the crow flies, from Paris. But meantime the +usurping and base-born Charles, in command of a small army mostly +composed of gigantic and well-seasoned German warriors, was sneaking +along, like an Indian, under the shelter of a range of hills, toward the +Saracen camp; and one day, to Abd-er-Rahman's great surprise, Charles +fell upon him like a veritable hammer of red-hot iron. + +Not in one moment, nor in one day, was the issue decided. Six days the +armies fought, and through all Abd-er-Rahman and his fanatical horde +held their own. But on the seventh day Charles led a battalion of his +biggest, fiercest Germans straight against the Moorish center. +Abd-er-Rahman himself was slain; his army, appalled by this +circumstance, was broken and beaten, and faded away toward the South. + +Charles Martel made sure his victory by another successful campaign. The +Moors were driven out of France forever. In their stead Charles himself +reigned. He had saved Europe to Christianity. Yet for his lack of +docility, the church execrated him. + +If Abd-er-Rahman had overrun France, as he would surely have done if a +less redoubtable and terrible antagonist than Charles Martel had faced +him at Tours, he would next have turned his attention to Germany. With +its fall, Italy and Rome would have invited his attention. There he +would have found few but priests to oppose him, and the empire of the +East, attacked in the rear as well as in the front, would speedily have +succumbed. No Saint Cyril would have gone forth to convert the Russians +and Bulgarians, who would promptly have been Tartarized. + +As we have seen, nothing could have saved England or Ireland. The +prophet's world-conquest must have been accomplished. + +What then? Would the western world have remained at the stage of +cultivation in which we see Arabia to-day? There is no reason to suppose +that that would have been quite the case. It was not so in Moorish +Spain, which rose to a high level of culture. Christianity would not +have been suppressed. It was not suppressed in Turkey or Spain. But it +would probably have been ruled, dominated, forced into odd corners, and +to some extent Moslemized. Learning would not have languished, for in +certain important forms it flourished in Spain. The western brain, the +Aryan genius, must have had its way in many intellectual respects. Yet +the cast of European thought would surely have been sicklied over with +oriental contemplativeness. + +The "hustler" never could have existed under Moslem rule. The speculator +never would have risen, because he would not have been tolerated. The +Moslem doctrine forbids censuses and statistics, treating them as a form +of wicked curiosity concerning the rule of God on earth. Pictorial art, +and sculpture, which the Koran regards as idolatrous, would have been +sternly repressed. Literature would have been great along the line of +poetry; science great along the line of mathematics. + +The western woman would have been orientalized. So far from forming +clubs, she would not have been permitted even to pray in the mosques. + +America would have remained undiscovered for centuries; and if at last +accident or search had laid it bare, it would have followed the path of +Europe. The mellifluous tones of the muezzin's cadence, "La ilah 'i il +'Allah," "There is no god but God," would echo now where the shouts and +yells of the Wall Street speculators reverberate. And the abode of the +mighty would have been a House of Quiet, not the home of strenuousness. + + + + +CHAPTER III + +IF KING ETHELRED OF ENGLAND HAD NOT MARRIED THE NORMAN EMMA + + +Not much turns upon the marriage of kings in these days. The German +Kaiser is not the less German assuredly because his mother was an +Englishwoman. Nor did her marriage to the Crown Prince of Prussia give +Prussia or Germany the slightest hold upon England. + +It was altogether different in an earlier day. One royal marriage in +particular, that of King Ethelred the Redeless, the "Unready," of +England, to Emma, the daughter of Richard the Fearless, Duke of +Normandy, in the year 1002, exercised upon Britain and the world the +most tremendous influence. It led to the invasion and subjugation of +England by William, surnamed the Conqueror, and to the reconstruction of +that mother country of ours, politically, socially and racially, upon +new lines. No royal marriage, perhaps, ever had such enduring and +far-reaching consequences; no queen-elect ever took with her to her +adopted country such a lading of fateful changes. + +The marriage was a sufficiently commonplace affair in itself. Ethelred +was a smooth and rather gentle prince, who thought much more of his own +easy fortunes than of anything else. He wanted a wife, and he did not +like the Danes, who were racially and politically the nearest neighbors +of his royal house. He visited Normandy, and must have pleased the Duke, +for Richard, a bold and resourceful man, bestowed this fair-haired Emma, +a lineal descendant of the victorious Norse pirates, but now quite +Frenchified, upon the young Englishman. + +She was not destined to see her progeny long reign over England. But it +did not matter about her descendants. The great change did not come with +them. What she really did was to supply to her nephew, Duke William, +known to history as the Conqueror, who was yet to come to the throne of +Normandy, a pretext to seize the English crown for himself. + +William was of illegitimate birth. His mother was Arvela, a poor girl +whom Duke Robert saw washing clothes in the river one day and +straightway became enamored of. But on his father's side William was, +through Emma's marriage, cousin of King Edward the Confessor, son of the +unready Ethelred. On a lucky day for him he visited England. It was at a +time when Edward was very ill, and William claimed ever after that he +had received from Edward, on his sick bed, a solemn promise that the +Norman duke should succeed him upon the English throne. + +Edward had no son, but it appears quite unlikely that a wise ruler such +as he was should deliberately have given away the throne and country to +a foreigner, especially when his brother-in-law Harold, Earl of Wessex, +a capable man, stood ready to succeed him. The English, at any rate, +took this view of the matter, for they straightway made Harold king, +ignoring the claim of the vilely born Duke William to the throne. + +But as the world knows, William was able to make good his flimsy claim. +Whether Edward gave him the crown or not, Stamford Bridge and Hastings +did give it him. When at last, following the law of the time, he +presented himself to the suffrage of the English nation, the +representatives of the beaten people had no option but to elect him. He +was a part of the baggage that Queen Emma brought with her. + +What was the rest of it? For one thing, union and consolidation, +centralization. England up to that time had been but a broken congeries +of earldoms or tribal territories, and would have gone on thus if it had +not at last found a master. In the next place, William brought the touch +of France, of Rome, of the graceful Latin world, to England. This son of +a hundred pirates passed on to England the torch of a culture that had +been lighted in Greece and relumed in Rome. It was not for nothing that +what had been ox meat with the Saxons now became beef for the English; +what had been calves' flesh became veal, and base swine flesh reappeared +as a more elegant dish called pork. It meant something that the rude +language of Beowulf was to be succeeded by the smoother lilt of +Chaucer--that, in short, the English had a new and bookish tongue. + +It meant, in simple truth, the disappearance of the old England and the +birth of a new and greater nation. "It was in these years of +subjection," says Green, "that England became really England." The +Normans degraded the bulk of the English lords, but they made these +displaced nobles the nucleus of a new middle class. At the same time +their protection led to the elevation into the same middle class of a +race of cultivators who had been peasants. Furthermore, the Norman rule +expanded villages into towns and cities, and these in time began to +stand, as powerful boroughs, for the rights of the people. The conquest, +says Green, "secured for England a new communion with the artistic and +intellectual life of the world without her. To it we owe not merely +English wealth and English freedom, but England herself." + +Edward A. Freeman calls the Norman conquest "the most important event in +English history since the first coming of the English and their +conversion to Christianity." If the succession of native kings had +continued, says the same authority, "freedom might have died out step by +step, as it did in some other lands. As it was, the main effect of the +conquest was to call out the ancient English spirit in a new and +antagonistic shape, to give the English nation new leaders in the +conquerors who were gradually changed into countrymen, and by the union +of the men of both races, to win back the substance of the old +institutions under new forms." + +In other words, the Norman Princess Emma brought with her John Bull as a +part of her dowry, when she came to weak Ethelred as his bride. + + + + +CHAPTER IV + +IF COLUMBUS HAD KEPT HIS STRAIGHT COURSE WESTWARD + + +On the morning of the 7th day of October, 1492, Christopher Columbus, +sailing unknown seas in quest of "Cipango," the Indies, and the Grand +Khan, still held resolutely to a course which he had laid out due to the +westward. This course he held in spite of the murmurings of his crew, +who wished to turn back, and contrary to the advice of that skilled and +astute navigator, Martin Alonzo Pinzon, who commanded the _Pinta_. +Pinzon had repeatedly advised that the course be altered to the +southwestward. + +Columbus was sailing on a theory. Pinzon, like any other practical +navigator in a strange sea, was feeling his way, and answering the +indications of the waters, the skies, the green grasses that drifted on +the surface of the waves, the flocks of birds that wheeled, and dipped, +and showed their heels to the far-wandered navigators, and seemed to +know their way so well over that remote and uncharted wilderness of the +deep. Columbus had said, "We will sail to the west, and ever to the +west, until the west becomes the east." Which to the men before the mast +was sheer lunacy. But Pinzon had already found strange Afric lands. The +scent of their leaves and flowers seemed to lie in his nostrils. + +Martin Alonzo Pinzon put off in a boat, later on that 7th day of +October, and came back to the _Santa Maria_, in which was the Admiral. +He brought the information that he had seen "a great multitude of birds +passing from the north to the southwest; from which cause he deemed it +reasonable to suppose that they (the birds) were going to sleep on land, +or were perhaps flying from winter which must be approaching in the +countries from which they came." The Admiral knew it was by the aid of +the flight of birds that the Portuguese had discovered the greater part +of the new lands which they had found. Columbus hesitated, wavered. + +Had the heart of the great theorist, sailing obstinately straight west +in obedience to the call of the land whose presence there he had +reasoned out, misgiven him at last? Had the discouragement and +incredulity of his men affected him? We do not know. But we do know that +finally he heeded Pinzon's oft-repeated demand that the course be +altered. + +It looked like common sense to follow the birds. Really it was not. The +theory was his true guide. Columbus betrayed his faith; he resolved, as +his journal recorded, "to turn his prow to the west-southwest, with the +determination of pursuing that course _for two days_." He never resumed +the westward course. He had weakened in his devotion to his own +idea--and had lost a continent for Spain and the Roman Catholic Church. + +For in spite of the conclusion reached by John Boyd Thacher, in his +monumental work on Columbus, that even if the Admiral had held the +westward course his fleet would not have passed the northernmost tip of +the Bahamas, there is sufficient ground for the generally accepted +conclusion that his landfall in that case would have been on the coast +of Florida or South Carolina, or even North Carolina. After the +alteration of his course, Columbus continued to sail for four days in a +general southwesterly direction, before, on the 12th of October, he fell +upon Watling's Island. In that time he had sailed, according to his own +reckoning, one hundred and forty-one leagues. This distance, if +persisted in due to the westward, would have brought him in contact with +drift and real bird-flight indications of the continent. + +Let us see toward what point his course had been laid. Setting sail from +Gomera, in the Canary Islands, Columbus purposed to go straight to the +west until he reached land. Gomera lies in about the latitude of Cape +Canaveral, or the Indian River, Florida. A line drawn from Gomera to +Cape Canaveral passes to the northward of the Bahamas altogether. No +land lay in the Admiral's path to Florida. + +But any supposition that Columbus would not have gone to the northward +of the Indian River ignores the northward drift that the Gulf Stream +would have caused his ships. He had yet, of course, to reach the axis +of that powerful current, which is here comparatively narrow, and runs +very swiftly at the point where the due westward course from Gomera +would have struck it. It is a fair chance that this drift would have +carried Columbus so far north as to land him in the neighborhood of what +is now Charleston, S. C., or even further to the northward, if he had +followed the path he had laid out for himself. + +Amazing the consequences that hung upon the flight of those "multitudes +of birds" that wheeled Bahama-ward on that October day! The Admiral's +landfall on the coast even of Florida would have made all temperate +America Spanish, for it would have focused the might of Ferdinand and +Isabella upon our shores. We know that the islands which lay immediately +to the southward of his "Salvador," in the Bahamas, beckoned Columbus in +that direction, and that the Indians were able by signs to make it +clear to him that a greater land, which was Cuba, and which he called +"Cipango," lay in this southerly direction. That way he laid his course, +"in order," as he wrote in his journal, "to go to this other island +which is very large and where all these men whom I am bringing from the +island of San Salvador make signs that there is a great deal of gold and +that they wear bracelets of it on their arms and legs and in their ears +and in their noses and on their breasts." + +Reason enough! Only it meant that Spain's energy in this hemisphere was +to be directed to the West Indies, and South America, and Mexico, for as +long a time as it was destined to endure, and that the vast continental +North was to be left as the heritage of another race. + +It is true that Florida afterward became Spanish. But it was not a +question of what Florida, merely, was to be. If Columbus had landed +upon the mainland, the northeastward trend of the coast, reaching back +toward Spain by just so much, would have beckoned him northward, not +southward. Even if he had explored southwardly, by some chance, he must +have returned northward when he had reached the point of the Florida +peninsula; and in the northerly direction he would have cruised, +returning Europe-ward. And he would have annexed the land step by step, +as he annexed Cuba, Hispaniola, and all the southern lands as fast as he +touched them. + +The Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland, would have been the scenes of the +Spaniards' settlement for a hundred years. Though afterward they took +Florida, that was as a mere side issue; it was unconsidered, neglected, +after Cuba and Mexico; and was passed on at length to the race that came +to the mainland more than a hundred years after the landfall at San +Salvador. + +Who can estimate the consequences of a fate which should have sent +Columbus straight on his way! Who can compass the thought of the +millions of country-loving Americans of our race unborn here, but +nurtured under skies now foreign to their very nature, but for that +glittering flock of tropical birds whirling southwestwardly? It is no +idle conjecture; von Humboldt, one of the wisest of cosmographers, says +that never in the world's history had the flight of birds such momentous +consequences. "It may be said," he avers, "to have determined the first +settlements in the new continent, and its distribution between the Latin +and Germanic races." He believed that the Gulf Stream would have carried +Columbus around Cape Hatteras. It might indeed have done so. + +We of the United States may well believe that the hand of Providence +guided those birds on that October day; but none the less are we +compelled to admit the strange dependence of human events upon +circumstances that are most trifling in themselves. + + + + +CHAPTER V + +IF QUEEN ELIZABETH HAD LEFT A SON OR DAUGHTER + + +Never did greater events hinge upon a woman's caprice against marriage +than those which were poised on the will of Elizabeth, Queen of England, +in the long years that lay between the time when, as a young queen, it +was proposed to marry her to the Duke of Anjou, and the sere and yellow +leaf of her womanhood, when her potential maternity was past. + +If Elizabeth had married, as her people often implored her to do, and if +her progeny had sat upon the throne and continued the sway of the +Tudors, half a century of turmoil and bloodshed, under the essentially +foreign rule of the Stuarts, might have been spared to England. The +Revolution doubtless would never have taken place. The material and +intellectual advance of England and all Britain would have been steady +and sure upon the splendid foundation of the Elizabethan structure. + +But, on the other hand, as good is often evolved from evil, much that is +sacred and vital to the whole Anglo-Saxon race might have been missed. +The Bill of Rights, the Habeas Corpus Act and other guarantees that were +obtained through the Revolution or the Commonwealth would have been +wanting in the English Constitution. Oliver Cromwell and John Hampden +would probably have remained in rustic obscurity. All modern Europe +would have lacked the political incentive, the revolutionary impulse, +the constructive audacity, which it has derived from the Grand +Remonstrance, from the battlefields of Marston Moor and Naseby, where +royalty was overthrown by the arm of the common people, and from the +eternal menace that lay in the death-block of King Charles. + +It was not because of any aversion to the society of men that Elizabeth +remained unmarried. Very far from this; it is likely that her extreme +liking for male society cut a considerable figure in her refusal. She +did not propose to give any man a public right to interfere with her +liberty of choice in this regard. History agrees that there was a sting +of truth in the words of Mary, Queen of Scots, in a letter which she +once sent to Elizabeth: "Your aversion to marriage proceeds from your +not wishing to lose the liberty of compelling people to make love to +you." The queen was fickle and passionate. She had little fear of the +royal Mrs. Grundy. At the tender age of sixteen scandal linked her name +with that of the Lord Admiral Seymour in such a way that an +investigation by the council was necessary. She baffled the lawyers in +the examination by her "very good wit." + +From the time of her accession, at the age of twenty-five, to the time +of her death, Elizabeth was certainly never without a favorite. She had +small conscience, and there can be little doubt that she required the +assassination of poor Amy Robsart in order that her favorite, Dudley, +might be free from his young wife; and when, after the age of sixty, her +young cavalier of that time, the fascinating Essex, wearying of dancing +attendance upon her at court, joined the expedition of Drake against +Portugal, the Queen bade him return instantly at his "uttermost peril." +In the end she signed the unhappy Essex's death warrant for an alleged +rebellion against her. + +But her motive in refusing matrimony was not altogether--perhaps not +even chiefly--one of coquetry. She was avid of power, and could brook no +rival in its exercise. It is probable that considerations of real +patriotism restrained her from marrying a continental prince. She shrank +from introducing foreign influence as instinctively as Americans have at +all times. She shrank from bowing to any yoke of Europe. But there were +also objections to her marrying an Englishman. If she had chosen one she +would have aroused the jealousy of all Englishmen not of his party or +following. She regarded it as the better policy to keep them all hoping. + +The unmarried state suited her arrogant and domineering nature well. She +had none of the docility which made Queen Victoria a model house-wife +and mother, and also a model constitutional sovereign. It was her +purpose to have undivided power or none. To the deputation of the House +of Commons which visited her with a petition that she marry, she +answered: "For me it shall be sufficient that a marble stone declare +that a queen, having reigned such a time, lived and died a virgin." + +The Commons who uttered the petition must have felt a premonition of +what would actually take place if there were no heir of Elizabeth's +body. The next heir to the throne was Mary, Queen of Scots. She was a +zealous Catholic, and England had just fully established its religious +independence. It is true that Mary's son and heir, James, who afterward +became King of England, as well as of Scotland, was a Protestant, but +the loyalty of the adhesion of his house to the new confession might +well have been distrusted. There was no promise of happiness for England +in the accession of a prince or princess of this house to its throne. + +But the Stuarts came--and the troubles of England began in real +earnest. Elizabeth's reign had been, as it then seemed to all +Englishmen, and as in very many respects it was, the golden age of +Britain. Never had art, and literature, and material prosperity, risen +to so high a level. The world seemed opening to a new and glorious life, +like a rose bursting into bloom. In literature it had been the age of +Shakespeare and Bacon. But with the Stuarts, literature and art passed +into a long eclipse. Shakespeare's light may be said to have gone out +for a hundred years, to be lighted again only from the borrowed torch of +German culture. + +Let us suppose that Elizabeth had been able to find a consort as wise +and as harmless as was Prince Albert, the husband of Queen Victoria. Let +us suppose that the pair had left behind them a thoroughly English +prince, their own son, a man who would have been capable of continuing +Elizabeth's prudent rule and of holding England to its traditions while +maintaining the extraordinary advance that had marked her splendid +reign. Without James's mingled poltroonery and tyranny to nurse and +stimulate it, it is doubtful if Puritanism would have had its spasm of +ascendency. English history would have been spared an epoch of chaos, of +wild experimentation, of political empirics. + +At the same time it would have been deprived of a form of political +genius which was hammered out of the fire of rebellion. English +Whiggism, English liberalism, English nonconformity have made the world +over anew. America, in particular, would have been infinitely poorer +without the Puritan ferment. Should we have had the New England +migration at all, if England had continued its calm and homogeneous +development under Elizabethan influences? Would not rather all America +have been like Virginia, and the new world organized on a roast-beef, +plum-pudding and distinctly Anglican and conformist basis? + +If we can imagine Massachusetts a purely Episcopal colony to-day, ruled +by parochial vestries instead of by town-meeting-parliaments and the +village Gladstone and his responsible cabinet in every hamlet, and the +whole province presided over by some self-sufficient Sir Alexander +Swettenham as the representative of British royalty, we may perhaps +imagine England without the cataclysm of the Stuarts. + + + + +CHAPTER VI + +IF THE PHILARMONIA HAD NOT GIVEN CONCERTS AT VICENZA + + +For the sake of variety, perhaps of diversion, in the midst of more +serious speculations, let us have an "if" of musical history--and one +which, no doubt, musicians may regard as purely fanciful, totally +absurd. It should be stated at the start that this chapter is written by +one who has no knowledge of music, but is capable of a very keen +enjoyment of it, and has in his time heard much professional music--many +concerts, operas and oratorios--and also much of the spontaneous +untrained music of the people, including old New England ballads now +forgotten; the songs of German peasants at the fireside and spinning +wheel; the native corn songs, "wails" and "shouts" of Southern negroes +on the plantations; and the medicine songs, scalp songs, ceremonial +chants and love ditties of the American Indians. + +The contingency which will be presented here is this: If a certain group +of unprofessional singers and musicians in the highly cultivated Italian +town of Vicenza, about midway of the sixteenth century, had not banded +themselves together in a society called the Philarmonia, and for the +first time in Europe given musical entertainments to which the public +were admitted, the musical institution called the concert might never +have existed, and music in that case would have remained a spontaneous +expression of human emotion, untainted with what is now called +virtuosity--that is, the strife and strain after technical mastery, +which affects the whole character of music, and diverts it from its +original purpose of pleasing the sense and comforting the heart. + +Expert professional music was a thing of very slow growth. The old +chapelmasters or choirmasters were, of course, in a sense professional, +since they lived upon the church. But they had also a sacerdotal +character. At the beginning they were always priests. To make a class of +professional musicians, vying with one another for mere mastery, the +public concert, with paid musicians, had to be developed. + +Though the Philarmonia gave public concerts at Vicenza, as we have said, +in the middle of the sixteenth century, concert music and opera music +had no general existence for as much as a century afterward. The first +opera ever represented was Peri's "Eurydice," written about 1600. Even +that was merely the expression of a group of enthusiasts, a sort of +private attempt to embody a theory of their own about what music should +be. It was not until the year 1672 that the first concert, with a price +for admission, was given in London. The price then charged was a +shilling, and the concert was in a private house. + +By that time the start had been made. Other concerts were given soon +afterward. They became popular. There was a demand for skilled musicians +and soloists. Performers began practicing for the sake of excelling in +technical achievement. By swift and sudden steps a premium was put upon +mechanical perfection in the handling of instruments. The old +spontaneous methods of expression gradually became discredited. + +As a consequence of the new development, two sorts of music grew up in +the world. On the one side stood concert music, professional music, +virtuoso music. This was difficult and complicated, and it was +impossible for ordinary people to sing it or play it. On the other side +was the popular music--folk music, the music of the street, the nursery, +the stable-shed and the taproom. As popular music was regularly deserted +now for the concert school by those who possessed the greatest musical +talent, it began to degenerate until it reached at last the degradation +of "Grandfather's Clock," "Ta-ra-ra-boom-de-ay," "Waiting at the Church" +and the graphophone. + +On the other hand, concert music moved farther and farther away from the +hearts and the comprehension of the people, until it has become a thing +apart from their lives, to be enjoyed almost as much with the eye as +with the ear, the interest lying chiefly in the production, in +succession, of individual masters, each of whom visibly surpasses the +mechanical achievements of his immediate predecessor. + +If those first concerts had not been given by the Philarmonia at +Vicenza, and the idea had not slowly rippled outward thence, like +spreading circles from a stone thrown into the water, until it reached +Vienna, Paris and London, what would have been the state of music +to-day? + +Manifestly the development of church music would have gone on. The +people, no doubt, would have been taking part in magnificent chorals. +The masses of the Catholic Church would have their correspondent feature +in the anthems and hymns sung in the Protestant churches by the +congregations. Every instrument that existed in the sixteenth century +would have been perfected, but not one would have taken on the intricate +development which musical mechanism exacts. + +In other words, the harpsichord would never have become a piano, and the +electrical church organ would not have been heard of. We should all play +some such instrument as the harp, the violin, the viol, the flute, the +pipe or the dulcimer. All might have been composers, as the negroes and +Indians are to-day, but on a higher plane. + +What popular music might be now but for that unlucky Philarmonia +discovery is suggested by an extract from the writings of Thomas Morley, +an Englishman who became a great amateur and introducer of Italian +madrigals in his own country. In the year 1597 he wrote that, on a +certain evening, in England,-- + + supper being ended, and musicke-bookes, according to the + custome, being brought to the table, the mistresse of the house + presented mee with a part, earnestly requesting mee to sing. + But when, after manie excuses, I protested unfainedly that I + could not, euerie one began to wonder. Yea, some whispered unto + others, demanding how I was brought up. So that, upon shame of + mine ignorance, I go now to seek out mine old friende master + Gnorimus, to make myselfe his schollar. + +In those days a person who could not sing, and sing well, was regarded +as a freak, and was required to fit himself to join in the universal +diversion. If we had not turned over our music making to professionals +it would be so now. Instead of going to the concert or the opera after +the evening meal, or playing bridge or talking scandal, people would +have participated in the singing of madrigals, glees or whatever other +sort of popular spontaneous music had been developed, and all would have +been sustained and uplifted by the exalted joy that comes from joining +with others in the production of good music. + +The people would have been joyously and heartily musical. Their taste +would not have been degraded to the point where it is gratified, as in +the graphophone, with a complicated succession of flat and strident +sounds unmusical in themselves. + + + + +CHAPTER VII + +IF THE SPANISH ARMADA HAD SAILED AT ITS APPOINTED TIME + + +When Philip the Second, son of the great emperor Charles V, came to the +throne of Spain, that country had become the greatest cosmopolitan +empire in the world. The throne of Castile, at one time or another +during Philip's reign, was the throne not only of Spain and Portugal, +but of the Netherlands and Burgundy, the Sicilies, Sardinia, Milan, +Cuba, Hispaniola, Florida, Mexico, California, nearly all of South +America, and the Philippine Islands. The Spanish monarch was the eldest +son of the church; and Philip, strong, ambitious, bigoted and insolent, +expected, as he laid the foundations of his glorious palace, the +Escorial, the eighth wonder of the world, to become master of France and +Britain, and to bequeath to his son the vastest empire that the sun had +ever shone upon. + +By his marriage with Queen Mary he acquired the nominal title of king of +England, though he was never crowned. But his grudge rose against +England after Mary's death and Elizabeth's accession. The country proved +itself a thorn in his side, helping the Dutch rebels and undoing at home +the persecuting work of his late spouse. Philip formed a great project +for the invasion of the country. + +Spain was supreme then on the sea. The English navy had greatly +declined. In 1575 it had but twenty-four vessels of all classes on the +water. Philip knew the cleverness of the English with their ships, +however, and in planning this invasion he proposed to be invincible. +Invincible he sought to make the Armada, or fleet, that he sent against +the country, and invincible not only he, but all Europe, believed it to +be, when, in January of the year 1588, the great flotilla was ready to +sail. + +It consisted of about one hundred and thirty ships, of which sixty-two +were over three hundred tons burden. It was commanded by a brave and +skillful sea fighter, Santa Cruz. The English had bettered their +conditions of seven years before very greatly, but they were at this +moment absolutely unprepared to meet a foreign fleet. Their ships were +scattered far and wide, and many were unequipped. If the Armada had +sailed at that moment it would have found no force ready to meet it. And +it would have escaped the storms that later befell. + +But _mañana_ is the curse of all Spain's projects. The Armada lingered. +Santa Cruz, its chief, sickened in port and died. Very likely if he had +sailed no such fate would have overtaken him. This was the first of the +big fleet's misfortunes. Philip looked about for another commander. By a +fatuous favoritism his choice fell upon the Duke of Medina Sidonia, who +was utterly incompetent. + +The months flew past. Meantime the English, fully apprised of the king's +intentions, were getting a fleet together. In those days it was not +necessary to wait five years for a battleship to be constructed. Almost +any big ship could be turned into a fighting craft. In particular, the +English were well off in guns, and the delay of the Armada gave them a +chance to get their artillery on board. + +When--_nombre de Dios!_--does the reader suppose that this invincible +fleet, ready in January, really set sail from Coruña? On the 12th day of +July! It had already been scattered and weakened by a storm off Lisbon. +On the 21st of July Medina Sidonia sailed into Drake's and Hawkins's +"line ahead" formation in the English channel as Rojestvensky sailed +into Togo's lair off Tsu-Shima in 1905, and the result to him somewhat +resembled the subsequent fate of the Russian fleet in the Sea of Japan. +It was not, however, so bad. If Medina Sidonia had gone, with his +surviving ships, after the first onset, to Denmark, and refitted, he +might yet have embarrassed the British. But he sought to make the +passage around the north of Scotland, and a succession of storms wrecked +his whole remaining fleet. + +All authorities agree that in January, 1588, no English force existed +which could have hoped to check Santa Cruz as things then stood. What if +he had come on and landed an army of trained veterans upon England's +undefended shores? He must have won. Queen Elizabeth must have been +overthrown. Ireland would have gladly joined Philip. England was almost +half Catholic, and the people of that faith might eventually have become +reconciled to the foreigner. Philip might have made himself another +Norman William. The Spanish culture would have been imposed upon the +English nation. But unlike William of Normandy, who transferred his +power to Britain, Philip would have remained a Spanish sovereign, and +London would have been ruled from Madrid. + +Philip would never have temporized with English Protestantism. The +chances are that he would have stamped it out utterly and at the start, +as he sought, too late, to do in the Netherlands. If he might have +worked his will, he would also have suppressed English learning and +literature. William Shakespeare, who had just come up to London, had +never produced a play when the Armada sailed, and probably he never +would have produced one if it had conquered. The glorious Elizabethan +culture would have been nipped in the bud. + +All Britain's possessions in the new world, already existent or to be, +would have fallen to Spain or France if Philip had overthrown +Elizabeth--doubtless to Spain, for Philip's ambition to seize the French +throne would have been furthered by his conquest of England. Spanish +viceroys would have borne sway for centuries over all North America. A +hybrid Indian-Latin race would have arisen here, as in Mexico and Peru. +Lacking the inspiration of North American freedom, all Spanish America +to the southward would have remained to this day under the dons. + +Castilian speech, Castilian cultivation, Castilian manners, the +Castilian faith, might have reigned supreme over a dusky race from the +St. Lawrence to the Straits of Magellan. + + + + +CHAPTER VIII + +IF CHAMPLAIN HAD TARRIED IN PLYMOUTH BAY + + +On the 18th of July, in the year 1605, Samuel de Champlain, in command +of a ship of the King of France, and engaged in the search for an +eligible site for a great settlement, anchored in the harbor which was +afterward to be known as the harbor of Plymouth, in New England. Two +days before, he had been in Boston Bay. He mapped both these havens, and +expressed his approval of the physical resources, and also the native +Indian peoples, of the region. + +At that time the coast of New England was really unappropriated, though +soon after it was claimed by both France and England. It was merely a +question which power should first seriously undertake the settlement of +the country. If France planted her colony here, the land was destined to +be French. If England hers, it would be English. + +Champlain carefully studied the advantages of Boston and Plymouth. That +he thought favorably of the latter place is proved by the very decent +map, still extant, which he made of Plymouth and Duxbury waters. "Port +St. Louis," he called the place, after the patron saint of France, and +after his royal master. It looked very much as if he hoped that the spot +he so honored would be made the seat of the French empire in the western +world. + +But Champlain sailed away, bearing with him the blessing of the thickly +settled and sedentary native people. He passed around Cape Cod, and +went westward as far as Nauset harbor, near New Bedford. And then, in +due time, he sailed for France. When, in 1608, he finally laid the +foundations of the city which was to be the capital of France in the new +world, he did not lay them at Plymouth or Boston, but at Quebec, on the +St. Lawrence. + +Why was his choice thus made? Largely, no doubt, because Champlain, +whose accurate information and seemingly always wise observation were +greatly trusted by the King of France, was infatuated with the noble +aspect and vast proportions of the gulf and river of St. Lawrence. He +was first of all a sailor, and he had seen nothing to compare with the +magnificence of this great _embouchure_. Here were scope and refuge for +the greatest of navies! Here, it seemed, was a place designed by the +Almighty to be the seat of an empire! + +Champlain had an excellent eye for harbors, but not so good an eye of +prophecy for the grand constructive events that were to be. He left the +Massachusetts coast unappropriated. First its native inhabitants, so +numerous, so gentle, so industrious, were decimated by a plague that +came to them from the white men. Only a remnant survived. And when, in +1620, their sachem, Samoset, shouted "Welcome, Englishmen!" to the men +of the Mayflower, the Indian king hailed, unconsciously, the advent of +an empire which was to cast the domain of New France into a cold and +waning shadow. For Quebec was too far north, and its hinterland too poor +and restricted, ever to nurse an imperial race. + +What if Champlain had been more sagacious, and had made his stand on the +coast of Massachusetts? In all probability the settlement would have +been definitive. The Pilgrims of Plymouth and the Puritans of Boston, +finding no place for their settlement in the north, would, in 1620, +have gone to Virginia or Georgia. The steely Yankee wedge which, on one +side, was to force the Dutch out of New Amsterdam, and on the other the +French out of Port Royal and Acadia, would never have been driven. New +England would have been French forever, and New York Dutch. + +The principle of the hinterland was asserted so successfully in our +early history that Massachusetts and Connecticut were able to claim +territory as far west as the Mississippi River. It was by means of this +hinterland claim that the young American republic succeeded in rounding +out its northwestern possessions, after the War of the Revolution, and +obtaining Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois. All these +would have been French if Champlain had made New England French; and the +English colonies, if they had ever become strong enough to throw off the +British yoke, would have consisted of a restricted section in the +Southeast. + +Indeed, without Sam Adams, Otis, Warren, and Israel Putnam, without the +revolt against the Stamp Act, and without Lexington, Concord and Bunker +Hill, it is impossible to conceive of the American republic at all. + +Supposing it to have been constituted notwithstanding, it would have had +to do without the influence of the New England town meeting, the New +England common free school, the New England college, and the +congregational system of church organization. It would have been +deprived of the work of Franklin, Hancock, the Adamses, Webster, Sumner, +Garrison, Phillips, Grant and the Shermans, in its affairs, and of +Longfellow, Emerson, Holmes, Lowell, Whittier, Hawthorne and Parkman in +its intellectual life. + +What would the New England country and the people have been like, if +Champlain had never turned back from Plymouth Bay? We know from +Benjamin Franklin's account what the progeny of the English settlers had +become even as long ago as 1772. "I thought often," he wrote in that +year, "of the happiness of New England, where every man is a freeholder, +has a vote in public affairs, lives in a tidy, warm house, has plenty of +good food and fuel, with whole clothes from head to foot, the +manufacture perhaps of his own family. Long may they continue in this +situation!" What the Canadian habitant is to-day, we know. Very often he +is unable to read or write, and his material and moral condition very +low. Even as late as 1837 the Canadian provinces were still arbitrarily +ruled by royal governors, with appointed councils or upper houses which +had a veto on all legislation. There was no self-rule, and the mass of +the French people were illiterate and miserably poor. + +Sieur Samuel de Champlain did a good day's work for English-speaking +America, and the great free republic that was to be, when he pointed his +prow northward and sailed away, out of sight of Cape Cod, in the summer +of 1605. + + + + +CHAPTER IX + +IF CHARLES II HAD ACCEPTED THE KINGSHIP OF VIRGINIA + + +Once at least the New World has furnished to the Old World a reigning, +actual king; once, for thirteen years, a monarch, sitting on a throne in +America, ruled thence an ancient kingdom in Europe. And twice this +singular thing might have happened, with this time an enthroned +sovereign on the banks of the James instead of on the shore of a +Brazilian bay, if a certain king's son and king-to-be had been of a +somewhat more venturing and less indolent disposition. + +The occasion when the thing really happened was when Don John VI, King +of Portugal, removed his royal throne and all the paraphernalia of +government from Lisbon to Rio de Janeiro, in 1807 (being impelled +thereto by an intrusive movement on the part of one Napoleon Bonaparte), +and turned Portugal (after the withdrawal of the French) into an actual +dependency of Brazil. This it remained until King John recrossed the +Atlantic in 1820. Throughout that period the scepter bore sway from west +to east, from America Europe-ward. + +Very much the same thing would have occurred further north in the +contingency to which I have referred; and if it had, a royalist or +monarchist influence might have been laid upon the English colonies in +America which would have colored their history and institutions in a +marked degree, even if their destiny had not been permanently affected. + +When Charles I, King of England, was arrested, imprisoned, and put to +death by the Parliament party in 1649, Virginia experienced a shock of +shame and indignation. That colony had absolutely no sympathy with +Cromwell and his party. It was in no sense or part Puritan. The Cavalier +sentiment dominated it completely; for though the bulk of its +inhabitants came out very poor, and were as far as possible from being +"gentlemen," they were not at all of the material of which Roundheads +were made; nor had they any influence in the government of the Province. +The General Assembly represented the gentlemen of the colony, who were +royalists to a man. + +It is not surprising, therefore, that upon the receipt of the news of +the execution of Charles I, the General Assembly of Virginia lost no +time in meeting and passing an act in which the dead king's son, Charles +II, was recognized as the rightful and reigning sovereign. Legal +processes, and the machinery of the provincial government, continued to +run in the king's name. In England, Cromwell was installed as Lord +Protector. But Virginia refused to recognize him or his title. At least +one county of Virginia formally proclaimed Charles king, requiring "all +his majesty's liege people to pray God to bless Charles the Second, King +of England, Scotland, France and Ireland, Virginia, New England and the +Caribda Islands." This, I believe, was the first appearance of the term +"King of Virginia," a title which was destined to be heard again +somewhat later. + +Nor did the people content themselves with proclaiming Charles king. In +1650, Governor Berkeley sent Colonel Norwood to Holland to invite the +prince to become the ruling sovereign of what Raleigh had called "the +newe Inglishe Nation" on this side the water. Charles did not accept. +Nor did he frankly refuse. He had not the boldness to go to Virginia, +but he was delighted with the chance to put on for a moment the manner +and authority of a ruler. He sent Berkeley a new commission as governor, +signed by himself as king, and gave Colonel Norwood a commission as +treasurer of the colony. Both commissions were honored in Virginia. + +The colony, indeed, with Barbadoes in the West Indies, virtually +constituted itself the Dominion of King Charles the Second; and it is in +memory of that assumption of the whole kingdom's prerogative, as the +Virginians believe, that the state is called the Old Dominion to-day. + +Nor did the people propose that their allegiance should remain merely +nominal. They essayed actually to cut the connection with Cromwell's +Commonwealth and maintain themselves as the sovereign remainder of the +English realm. They succeeded in maintaining this position for a +considerable time--until, that is, 1651, when Cromwell's government +sent three ships of war to reduce the Virginians to submission. As all +the principal settlements were within easy reach of navigable water, and +had not developed sufficient back territory by means of which to support +themselves, it was impracticable for them to hold out long; they were +obliged to submit. Cromwell treated the province oppressively, and +forbade the other colonies to trade with it. + +It is not at all surprising that Virginia, which in the meantime had +become the place of refuge of many more royalists, took steps to throw +off the Puritan allegiance as soon as possible after Cromwell's death, +and sought to anticipate the restoration of the Stuarts. Sir William +Berkeley, whom Cromwell had displaced with a Roundhead governor, was +again called to the head of things by the people. He refused to assume +the governorship at their mandate unless they gave him their solemn and +formal promise to venture their lives and fortunes for King Charles II. +This promise was given him by the unanimous voice of the electors. +Berkeley then proceeded to proclaim Charles "King of England, Scotland, +France, Ireland and Virginia." Virginia was once more the sole existing +segment of the king's dominion. In Virginia, and in Virginia only, +processes and documents were issued in his name. + +Charles was therefore really king in Virginia, though in very fact he +was still living a lazy and rather low life in the Dutch towns, or +eating, as a guest, the bread of the French and Spanish nobility. The +Virginians, however, were not at all content with having set up a mere +paper sovereignty for him. Berkeley had kept in touch, by letter and +through messengers, with Charles, and had sent word to him, in Holland, +before the Commonwealth had fallen, that he would raise his standard in +Virginia if the king would give his consent. Once more he offered him a +Virginian crown. Richard Lee was sent to Holland with a proposition from +Berkeley to take the field for the king. It was even proposed that +Charles should come to Virginia and set up his throne there. + +The king once more sent cordial thanks to the Virginians. But he did not +accept their proposition. We can imagine that along one side of his +nature it appealed to him, and on the other and commanding side it was +quite unwelcome; that is to say, while it must have inflamed somewhat +his ambition to be king once more and have done with the eating of the +bread of others, it was quite in conflict with his natural indolence and +moral cowardice. His first attempt to assert his kingship, when, on the +field of Worcester, he was ignominiously defeated by Cromwell, had +sickened him with all proceedings having the stamp of energy upon them. +As a matter of fact, it would have been perfectly safe for him to raise +his standard and set up his throne in Virginia. But he would not venture +it. He would remain on the Continent and await the turn of events. + +Ere long events made him king in England. The Commonwealth fell to +pieces when there was no longer a strong hand to guide it. Charles +landed shabbily, even squalidly, at Dover, almost sneaking into the +country, instead of coming in triumph from Virginia, with a kingly New +World in his hand, as he might have done if he had accepted Berkeley's +invitation. + +If, after his defeat at Worcester, he had taken advantage of Virginia's +first proffer and of French assistance, and raised his flag in America, +Charles might have affected the world's history very materially. There +was no time when the Puritans were not in a minority in England. They +held down the majority for a time because they had developed a superior +military capacity, and had a splendid, resolute army. But to the nucleus +of a brilliant Cavalier command in the New World, the more vigorous +English royalists might have rallied. A court at Williamsburg, which was +then and for a long time afterward the capital of Virginia, would have +meant a royal court in London much sooner than it really arrived, and +would have caused the Commonwealth to leave a fainter and narrower mark +upon the history of England than in the event it did leave. + +Meantime, what a brilliant court would have assembled around the gay and +talkative monarch at Williamsburg! Already the Lees, the Washingtons, +the Berkeleys, and many others of the "first families," were established +in Virginia. Charles would probably have been happy in the easy, +light-hearted atmosphere of the plantations. There were no Puritans +there to bother him. Virginia had made its own laws against Puritan +practices--and enforced them. + +Never was a monarch who would have been better pleased with having about +him actual slaves--men and women whose bodies he would have owned. His +sway must have spread northward as far as the border of the French +possessions, for though New England was Puritan, it bent reluctantly to +the sway of the Commonwealth, seeming to scent in the Roundhead +sovereignty a kind of rival that threatened to take over its half-won +autonomy. A kingship exercised in America would probably have suited the +men of New England very well. + +In all likelihood the throne would in due time have been transferred to +the mother country. But its erection here, even for a few years, must +have infused into the character of the Americans generally a larger +element of monarchicalism than fell to their lot as it was. Virginia +would hardly have fallen off so readily into colonial republicanism as +it did in 1774-1776. English neglect of a really royalist Virginia sowed +the seed of Virginian rebellion. If Virginia had not supported +Massachusetts, shoulder to shoulder, there could not have been an +American Revolution. Charles did not know how far he let Virginia go +when he rebuffed Berkeley's emissaries. + +The sentiment of personal loyalty to the crown remained strong in the +colonies up to the very outburst of the Revolution. The Americans +dissolved the relation of subject and sovereign with regret. If they had +ever had a king whom they could call their own, the interest enkindled +and perpetuated by his presence might very well have turned the scale in +1776 and prevented the withdrawal of the colonies. + + + + +CHAPTER X + +IF ADMIRAL PENN HAD PERSISTED IN DISOWNING HIS SON WILLIAM + + +When an English father, irascible and opinionated, disowns and turns out +of doors a son who has not only disobeyed him but proved false to the +traditions and obvious interests of the family, he is very apt to adhere +to his action. A very great deal turned upon a case, once, in which an +English father, after making a very firm show of disowning his son, at +last relented and took him back to his heart. + +Pennsylvania, to wit, turned upon it; and all the amazing success of +William Penn's great experiment in colonization. There has never been +anything quite like that success in the world's history, for the great +trek of the already established American population in the nineteenth +century was a readjustment, an extension, rather than a colonization in +the true sense. The planting of Pennsylvania was a true colonization. +Not only did it amount to the creation of a great and model +commonwealth, full-fledged, with a composite new-world population, in +twenty or even ten years' time, but it furnished the keystone to the +arch of states that constituted the American republic in the next +century after Penn's settlement. + +Philadelphia led the American towns in the seven years of the +Revolution. It was their capital commercially as well as politically. It +supplied most of the sinews of war. Without Robert Morris's $1,400,000, +all of which came from Philadelphia, the final and crucial campaign of +the war could not have been fought. More than that, without just the +sort of commonwealth that Pennsylvania had already become, standing in +the center of things--cosmopolitan, independent of royalist or +aristocratic influence, populous, well-to-do, democratic, steady--it is +hard to see how the Revolution could have been undertaken at all. + +But for the incident which permitted Penn's settlement, the vast +territory which afterward constituted Pennsylvania would have become +merely an extension of New York, or of New Jersey, or of Maryland, or of +Virginia, or of all of them. The chances are that its resources would +have been exploited by slave labor. The greater part of the state might +have remained slave territory up to 1861. In any case its development +would have been much more slow, its peopling much less rapid. Not only +must Indian wars have checked growth, but the spectacle of the arrival +of five hundred thousand stalwart Germans, the creation of the largest +city in the colonies within fifty years, and the upbuilding, in that +time, of a trade from the Delaware River that employed more than five +hundred ships and seven thousand sailors, could never have been +presented. + +The part which Pennsylvania began to play from the moment of Penn's +arrival, and which it still plays, in American affairs, was directly +dependent upon Penn's character and genius, and, for a long time, upon +his wealth and social position. Without the wealth which William Penn +inherited from his father, Admiral Sir William Penn, he could not have +organized his Pennsylvania Society, nor bought the site of Philadelphia. +Without the position, as well as the wealth, which he inherited, he +could not, in the first place, have aspired to the acquaintance with and +confidence of King Charles II; and these were absolutely essential to +the extraordinary charter, in behalf of a despised and distrusted +people, which Penn received at the king's hands. + +Had Penn always been in this favorable position? We shall see. The +admiral, his father, was a good churchman and a conservative man. King +Charles held him in very high estimation. The son was brilliant, and of +noble character. He was sent to Oxford University; and what was the +father's astonishment, after the boy had been there some little time, to +hear that he had joined the despised and persecuted sect of the Quakers! +This was very much as if, at the present day, the son and heir of a +great multi-millionaire should join, not merely the Socialists, but the +Anarchists at Paterson! + +Sir William raved and scolded. The son only grew more firm in the faith. +Sir William endured much; but finding the young man actually inclined to +address the king as "thou," he told him that if he committed this +impropriety, or "thee-ed" and "thoued" either him, the admiral, or the +Duke of York, he would disown him, and cut him off without a shilling. +On the very first opportunity after this, young William addressed King +Charles as "thou!" The king, having a more than royal sense of humor, +made a jest of the matter, but Sir William did not. He was as good as +his word. He turned his son out of doors, and bade him begone. The youth +went abroad, and took up for a time a very much discredited existence. +He had already been expelled from the university. + +Here, for a time, the fate of Pennsylvania certainly trembled in the +balance. It was quite within the outraged admiral's power to make the +ban permanent. If he had done so, there would never have been a +Quaker-German commonwealth in America. + +It is known that the son accepted his banishment as permanent. But his +mother did not. She pleaded with the father for his forgiveness. She +reminded him of the boy's great natural goodness, his brilliancy, his +affectionateness. He would, Lady Penn maintained, recover from his +distemper of Quakerism. She begged her husband, before it was too late, +to relent and recall him. + +At length, moved by this appeal and the promptings of his own heart, the +admiral called the young man home. Once or twice afterwards he was on +the point of a more radical banishment of him. But, fortunately for the +New World, Sir William's heart was soft after all. The son was +reëstablished in his good graces. After the admiral's death, in 1670, it +was found that he had bequeathed all his wealth to the son, and, owing +to the son's influence, the Quakers improved their position not a +little, and in due time Penn organized and put through the Pennsylvania +experiment. But King Charles took good care to inform him that the name +"Pennsylvania," officially bestowed on the colony, was not in honor of +the founder, but in compliment to the admiral, his father. + +Narrow as this contingency may have been, since so great an event +depended on the impulse of one man, it was after all a moral +contingency, and not due of physical accident, as so many others have +been. It is the more impressive for this reason. It is good to know that +a few heartbeats the more, in the breast of a man who can be kind as +well as hot-tempered, may create a mighty empire. + + + + +CHAPTER XI + +IF THE BOY GEORGE WASHINGTON HAD BECOME A BRITISH MIDSHIPMAN + + +One summer day, in 1746, a British ship of war lay in the Potomac River +below the place where the city of Washington now stands. The officers of +the ship had been visiting at Mount Vernon, which was the residence of +Major Lawrence Washington, adjutant-general of Virginia. + +No vessel of the royal navy entered the Potomac River without a visit on +the part of its officers to Major Washington's house. He had been in the +king's service at the siege of Cartagena and elsewhere. Admiral Vernon +was his friend; Major Washington's estate on the Potomac had been named +after the admiral. Lawrence Washington's acquaintance with the men of +both army and navy was wide, and his popularity among them great. A +visit to his hospitable residence, where he entertained them with true +Virginian lavishness, was always a bright spot in any naval officer's +life at that day. + +At Lawrence Washington's table, for two or three years prior to 1746, +had sat his younger brother, George by name. This lad, who was a +gentleman and a soldier in miniature, had often listened to stories of +the exploits of the navy--of the capture of Porto Bello, of the +bombardment of Cartagena, and of cruisings and battles along the Spanish +Main. These stories and personal contact with their heroes had inspired +him with an eager desire to enter the naval service. His father was +dead, and his brother, who had virtually taken the father's place, +favored the boy's design. His mother had opposed it. But at last she had +been induced to give her consent. A midshipman's warrant was obtained +for young George Washington, and on the summer day in 1746 of which we +have spoken his luggage had actually been sent on board the ship lying +in the river. + +But at the last moment Mary Washington flatly rebelled. She could not +bear the thought of her boy's going to sea. She foresaw a time when she +would need him at home. She withdrew her consent; and as her signature +was necessary to his enlistment, it was impossible for him to join the +ship, and his luggage was sent back to Mount Vernon. + +So thus it happened that George Washington did not, at the age of +fourteen, enter the British navy, and embark upon a career which would +probably have held him fast all the rest of his life. + +It was a real contingency--that of the possible commitment of George +Washington to the royal cause. Every influence that bore upon him, up to +the date of his brother Lawrence's death, in 1752, was royalist. This +brother was married to the daughter of George William Fairfax, cousin +and manager of the great American estates of Lord Fairfax. Lord Fairfax +himself, removing to Virginia, became the patron, friend and mentor of +young George Washington. The young man was in constant association with +Englishmen, and always more or less under official influence. + +The Fairfaxes remained loyal to the British power when the war of +independence was declared. If Lawrence Washington had lived it is quite +conceivable--aye, probable--that he would have gone with them. If George +Washington had not been thrown much into contact after that with his +Virginian neighbors, among whom the spirit of rebellion had been +propagated from Massachusetts--if he had not himself become a colonial +soldier and commander--there can be little question that he would have +clung to the English side. + +In the meantime, undoubtedly, he would have been advanced to rather high +rank in the naval service, if he had joined it. The years between 1746, +when the midshipman's warrant was obtained for Washington, and 1774, +when the colonies began to flame up into revolt, had been of great +activity at sea. + +The young officer might have participated in the destruction of the +French fleet at Cape Finisterre; in the victory off Lagos; in the great +decisive combat in Quiberon Bay; in the capture of Havana, and in many +other sea fights. He would have fought by the side of Boscawen, Sir +Edward Hawke, Lord Howe, Duff and Rodney, and very likely have won +laurels such as theirs. Nothing colonial could have separated him from +the flag which he had thus served, any more than the influence of his +native state could have separated Farragut from the Stars and Stripes in +1861. + +Is it too much to say that the American republic would have been +fatherless without Washington? Perhaps an arm might have been +found--though that is doubtful--that could have wielded his sword. But +where was the brain, the patience, the tact, the determination, that +would have composed the differences in the American councils, and have +kept the discordant colonies and the jealous commanders together? + +That another man, that any combination of men, could have done what he +did, is inconceivable. In the grandeur of his character and in the +genius with which he accomplished a tremendous work, he is uncompanioned +not only in America, but in the history of the world. Without his +steadying hand in the war, the American army would have followed a +devious course to death, and the young republic one to its destruction. + +As to the decisive part which he played in the formation of the union of +the States after the war, the word of his companions in the Federal +Constituent Convention is conclusive. "Were it not for one great +character in America," said Grayson of Virginia, referring to +Washington, "so many men would not be for this government; we do not +fear while he lives, but who besides him can concentrate the confidence +and affection of all Americans?" No one else ever could have +concentrated them. Monroe reported to Jefferson, "Be assured +Washington's influence carried this government." And Bancroft has put +this judgment on record: "The country was an instrument with thirteen +strings, and the only master who could bring out all their harmonious +thought was Washington. Had the idea prevailed that he would not accept +the Presidency, it would have proved fatal." + +Washington was the pivot upon which all things turned. Lacking such a +pivot, the machinery of the American republic would have tumbled into +ruin. Happy the choice of the Virginian mother who could not spare her +boy on that summer day, and sent aboard the man-of-war in Potomac's +stream for his dunnage! + + + + +CHAPTER XII + +IF ALEXANDER HAMILTON HAD NOT WRITTEN ABOUT THE HURRICANE + + +"He thought out the Constitution of the United States and the details of +the government of the Union; and out of the chaos that existed after the +Revolution raised a fabric every part of which is instinct with his +thought." So said one of his contemporaries, Ambrose Spencer, of +Alexander Hamilton; and another said: "He did the thinking of his time." +The thinking that Hamilton did for the young American republic was of +the most tremendous and vital importance to it. His services as a +financier were not merely of a negative or saving character--they were +positively constructive and permanently enduring; he "created a public +credit and brought the resources of the country into active efficiency." +It was Hamilton who founded the American system of business and finance. + +Yet it is altogether likely that but for an accidental circumstance or +two Alexander Hamilton would never have come to the continental +colonies. He was born on the Island of Nevis, in the West Indies, and +upon that island, and upon St. Christopher and St. Croix, neighboring +islands, his life up to the age of fifteen was spent. His father, James +Hamilton, had proved "feckless and unfortunate," as a British biographer +of Hamilton expresses it, and early ceased to provide for the boy, or, +apparently, to take any interest in his education or welfare. His mother +died early, and left him to the charge of her relatives, and as she +bequeathed to them several other children, they had little thought about +Alexander except to make him of some use and lighten their own burden. +He was sent to school scarcely at all, and at the age of twelve was put +into the shop or store of Nicholas Cruger, a general dealer at St. +Croix, to earn his living as a clerk. + +There he remained for about three years. He has often been described as +phenomenally precocious, and he certainly was, in the sense that his +mind ripened early. But there was nothing of the quality of smart, +self-satisfied immaturity about his genius. He read much, studied +deeply, and received some good training at the hands of Rev. Hugh Knox, +a Presbyterian minister. + +But all at once there occurred the accident which resulted in his going +to the continental colonies. In the late summer of 1772 a fearful +hurricane swept over the Leeward Islands. The boy Hamilton, then +fifteen years old, had his full share in the adventures attending this +calamity, and wrote a long and vivid account of it for a newspaper +published at St. Christopher. By this brilliant piece of news work the +entire West Indies were electrified. The people there had had plenty of +hurricanes before, but none of them had ever been adequately "written +up." Young Hamilton awoke one morning to find himself in the enjoyment +of a fame which extended all the way from Jamaica to Trinidad. + +The immediate result of this notoriety was to convince Alexander's +relatives that they possessed in him a prodigy, and to stimulate them to +find means to educate him. They raised a fund forthwith without any +particular difficulty, and shipped him, armed with a letter of +introduction from Rev. Mr. Knox, to Boston, en route to New York. +Lacking this assistance, it is unlikely that the youth would have found +his way to our shores. Perhaps he would, in spite of everything, have +risen to eminence in the West Indies. Very likely he would one day have +drifted to Scotland or England, and he might have become a famous man +there. But America would have lost him. + +There is still another and vital contingency associated with Hamilton's +removal to the American continent. On its way to Boston, while in the +open ocean, the ship on which he had sailed took fire. For some time it +was in danger of destruction. But with great difficulty the flames were +extinguished. If they had prevailed, the career of the West Indian +genius would doubtless have been cut short by death. + +Thus, by the aid, first, of a tropical hurricane, and, second, through +the efforts of the crew of the ship that bore him, in stifling a fire in +the hold, Alexander Hamilton reached the American colonies just in time +to be swept into the current of the movement for independence; to be +made over anew into an ardent American, and to put his stamp forever +upon the young nation which arose from the smoke of Bunker Hill. The +dark-skinned, dark-eyed, exotic-looking student at King's College, whom +the citizens of New York at first looked at askance as a very "queer +West Indian," became a great leader, a commander, a guide, a magnificent +constructive as well as restraining force. + +What this country would have been without him, or rather, what it must +forever have failed to be, may be inferred from the things which it +became that were owed to him. He was the inventor of American +protection. American industry was founded upon his "report on +manufactures." As the first and greatest of Federalists, he saved the +confederation from disruption by supplying the idea of central +authority. Others might labor for freedom--he labored for security. He +put reason at the bottom of our commonwealth. Without his principles, +the republic would have lacked a balance wheel. The States' rights would +have been everything--the nation's rights nothing. + +All our national expansion was wrapped up in Hamilton's views. McKinley +and Roosevelt have been his continuators. The sentiment which governs +our republic to-day is Hamiltonian; and the war and discord that have +afflicted us, as the result of the looseness of our confederation, must +long since have wrecked the nation but for the balance wheel with which +he supplied us. + + + + +CHAPTER XIII + +IF LA FAYETTE HAD HELD THE FRENCH REIGN OF TERROR IN CHECK + + +In every age of the world, and in every place, one voice has always +commanded in the affairs of nations, peoples and communities. If +oligarchies, legislatures, groups or cabals have seemed to bear sway, it +has nevertheless been true that in each of these groups, from time to +time, the influence of some individual has been preponderant. The freest +republics are an organization of this principle--a willing submission of +the many to the leadership of chosen men. + +In times of stress and strife and change it is impossible that strong +men should not seize the reins of power, no matter what political system +exists, no matter what anarchy tends to prevail. Change, indeed, makes +the opportunity of the strong; and the fate of nations and continents +depends upon the character of the strong man who is brought forth. If he +is good, as Washington was good, his fellow-countrymen derive lasting +and unmeasured benefit from his grasping of his opportunity. If he is +bad, as Napoleon Bonaparte was bad, the evil harvest of his vices may be +reaped through generations and centuries, as France has reaped, and is +now reaping, an inheritance of strife and national decline. + +When the Revolution of 1789 came to France there were many people, of +all parties and conditions, who believed that the country had its +Washington. He was to be found, they thought, in the person of the +Marquis de La Fayette. This man was Washington's friend. He had +successfully copied many of his virtues. He was unselfishly patriotic. +He believed in the liberty of the people, and wished to see them govern +themselves. Though himself a nobleman, he believed in the abolition of +titles of nobility. In his room, and afterward in his office as a public +servant, he kept two frames hanging on the wall. In one frame was a copy +of the American Declaration of Independence. The other frame was empty, +but it bore the legend, "This space awaits the French Declaration of +Independence." + +When the Revolution broke out, La Fayette was called by the people to +the center of real power--the command of the troops in Paris. Both king +and people trusted him. His power for good was almost absolute. He +prevented anarchy and restored order in Paris after the overthrow of the +Bastile. He gave the country a Bill of Rights and a Constitution founded +on the American models. The quarrels of the warring factions were +stayed by his hand. The mob dared not turn the king out. La Fayette's +moderating influence was the ballast that kept the French nation, in +spite of certain excesses, on a steady keel. + +Even when the Girondists and Jacobins rose and were ready to fly at one +another's throats, the fear of La Fayette kept these factions from +violence. If he had maintained this influence--if he had preserved the +sagacity and boldness to side with the people and lead them--the French +nation might have been saved from anarchy, reaction, the tyrannies of +emperors and of mobs, and the slow degeneration that has followed its +long diet of gunpowder. + +But in the test La Fayette did not exhibit this power. In 1792 he was in +the field, in command of an army, resisting the Prussian invasion. The +nation, aroused, was equal to the task of repelling foreign attack. But +in Paris events were marching. The people rose and overthrew the throne +and the royalist Constitution which La Fayette had made. But they turned +still to La Fayette. They offered him the chief executive power in the +new government. + +This was his opportunity to save France. He was not equal to it. He did +not rise to the emergency. He not only refused the offer of power, but +made his troops renew their oaths of fidelity to the king. Then the +Assembly declared him a traitor; and La Fayette, taking with him a few +followers, deserted his command, made his way to Bouillon, on the +frontier, and rode out of France into a foreign land! + +No man can imagine Washington taking such a step as that. La Fayette +suffered from it, and he afterwards served his country nobly. But the +eternal mischief of his weakness had been done. Girondists and Jacobins, +relieved from the fear of him, turned to mutual destruction and murder. +The Reign of Terror was on. The nation was plunged in an orgy of blood. +Four hundred thousand men and women were put to death. Liberty in France +was assassinated in the house of its friends. + +One man, I have said, always comes to the top of things. With La Fayette +gone, Robespierre, the man of blood, prevailed. Robespierre was the +Terror. And after him, the Terror having appeased its fearful thirst, +and Robespierre's head having gone into the basket with his victims', +there came another man to take advantage of the paralysis the perverted +Revolution had inflicted upon France. That man was Napoleon Bonaparte. + +Bonaparte freed La Fayette from captivity. Bonaparte held him in +contempt, calling him a "noodle." It was not so bad as that. But +Napoleon despised a man who had had his chance and failed to grasp it. + +Had La Fayette proved equal to that opportunity, France would have been +organized as a constitutional republic. The Terror would not have been. +Napoleon's ambition might have been held in check. The balance in Europe +would have been maintained, but the leadership of France would have been +consolidated and become immortal. The nations would have followed her +example. Monarchy would have died of dry rot. The dream of a United +States of Europe might have been realized--perhaps with a city of La +Fayette, the capital of the vast confederation, the European equivalent +city of Washington, smiling down, it may be, from the neutral shores of +the Lake of Constance to east, to west, to north, to south, with a +benediction of peace. + + + + +CHAPTER XIV + +IF GILBERT LIVINGSTON HAD NOT VOTED NEW YORK INTO THE UNION + + +How many Americans of the present day realize that the State of New +York, at the time of the adoption of the national Constitution, was +radically and overwhelmingly opposed to entrance into the Union which +the Constitution proposed, and was at last forced into the league of +States only by the demonstration that the State would be isolated and +cut off from its neighbor States if it did not join, with a tariff wall +raised against it? It is indeed hard for New Yorkers to realize, as +they live to-day under the Stars and Stripes, having forgotten what +their State flag is, and being among the most zealous supporters of the +Union, that their State led the opposition to the Constitution, and that +but for the influence of a very few men in two other States, New York +might have prevented the consummation of that "more perfect union." + +The contingency that prevented the State from dismembering the Union at +its start was a narrow one, but it had been provided for. Hamilton and +the Federalists had laid their plans well. They first furnished the +Southern States, and the smallest States in the North, with an +interested reason for joining the Union. They gave the men of the South +representation on their slaves. They made the little States equal with +the great States in the Senate. Then they provided that when nine States +had ratified the Constitution it should become effective, and a +confederation should be formed by those nine States, if there were no +others. + +Then the ratifications began. The game was to get nine States. Little +Delaware said "Yes" first. Franklin and Wilson had a firm hold upon +Pennsylvania, and that State entered next under the pressure they +exerted. New Jersey, Georgia, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maryland and +South Carolina followed. This made eight States. Then things stuck fast. +Would there be a ninth? + +Two thirds of the delegates in the convention of New York were firmly +opposed to ratification. They believed the Constitution meant an end of +the liberties of the States. They saw a royal throne looming up for +America. They feared, they said, a great central power which should +oppress and overtax the people of the States. Governor Clinton led the +opposition to ratification. Hamilton's able arguments had no effect. New +York would not come in. + +All the remaining States were believed to be also opposed. New Hampshire +had refused to comply with the requisitions of the Confederation; why +should it look with more favor on the Constitution? In Virginia, Patrick +Henry led the opposition to ratification with impassioned eloquence. +Richard Henry Lee, William Grayson, George Mason and James Monroe, all +great men in the State, were unalterably opposed to ratification. It +certainly looked black for the Union. + +But in this moment of apparent triumph, while the New York convention +was in session, Governor Clinton and his party in the convention heard +surprising news. New Hampshire, under the influence of Massachusetts and +of the wiser counsels of some of its own leaders, ratified the +Constitution on the 21st of June, 1788--more than nine months after the +adoption of the instrument by the Constitutional Convention at +Philadelphia. + +This event put a new face on the situation in New York. The Union was +now decreed. If New York did not enter it, she must be prepared to stand +alone, as an independent nation. Could she do that? The new +Confederation would hem her in on both sides. To it would belong New +Jersey, which flanked her only seaport on the west, and Connecticut and +Massachusetts, which walled her in on the east. The shape of the State +adapted it very badly indeed for an independent position. Moreover, +influences were known to be at work which would precipitate a hostile +tariff against the States which remained out of the Union. A few months +later such a tariff was actually adopted against Rhode Island, which was +treated as a foreign country in the levying of duties on imports. + +New York could not stand that. Gilbert Livingston and a few others +changed their votes under a distinct announcement that the pressure of +"sister States" had made it impracticable to continue the opposition. +But even at the last, the Constitution was ratified by a majority of +only two in a vote of sixty! Gilbert Livingston held the fate of the +State in his hands, and he, though pledged against the Union, put New +York into the Union by his vote. + +One vote would have kept New York out. + +We have noted the fact that New York's position was unfavorable for an +attempt at independence. But the fact that the voice of but one man +prevented the attempt shows that the other opposing delegates were not +much afraid of making the leap. Supposing Gilbert Livingston had voted +the other way, and the vote had been thirty-one to twenty-nine against +ratification, instead of the same figure in its favor? What would have +resulted? + +Let us see. Two other States were radically opposed to the +Constitution--Rhode Island and North Carolina. Very likely they would +have been glad to form a defensive alliance with New York. Virginia +ratified a few days after New Hampshire, but she might easily have +retracted her ratification, for she had no heart in it. With Virginia, +the malcontent States would have had (census of 1790) a population of +1,550,306, against 2,378,908 for the remaining colonies, including +Vermont, which was not yet in. This would not have been an utterly +hopeless foundation for a new league, constituted on the easy terms upon +which, and upon which only, these States were willing to enter the +Union. The want of contiguity of territory would have been the worst +objection to the formation of the league. + +But the real effect of New York's self-exclusion, so narrowly prevented, +would have been a negative one. It would have prevented all cohesion in +the new Union. It would have driven a wedge straight through the new +republic, from west to east. Worse, it would have erected secession into +a principle from the start. Ere long we should have had at least three +republics instead of one, and probably more. Politically we should have +been what Central and South America are now. Real progress would have +been barred. Wars would have been probable between the States. European +political influences would have penetrated the weaker States, or +alliances of States. + +In short, the "American idea," government of the people by the people +and for the people, would probably have been stillborn. By his change of +vote, Gilbert Livingston signed the death warrant of the principle of +secession. Not only did he set going the unifying influences which +prevailed over State sovereignty, but he decreed the Empire State, +destined to be a bulwark against disunion. + + + + +CHAPTER XV + +IF THE PIRATE JEAN LAFITTE HAD JOINED THE BRITISH AT NEW ORLEANS + + +After the battle of New Orleans, on the 8th of January, 1814, General +Andrew Jackson, the victorious commander, called before him a certain +officer, of dashing and Frenchy appearance, and publicly thanked him for +the important part which he had borne in the battle. To judge from the +signal honor done to this man, the credit for the victory was in no +inconsiderable part due to him. And, indeed, this was the case. + +The man to whom the victor's thanks had been thus conspicuously awarded +was Jean Lafitte, the Baratarian pirate. That the success of Jackson in +defeating and virtually destroying the army of Pakenham, consisting of +the very flower of the Duke of Wellington's soldiery, hinged, in an +important sense, upon this extraordinary corsair and buccaneer, has +never been adequately acknowledged in American history. + +Jean Lafitte, the foremost of the three pirate brothers of Barataria, +was a man of extraordinary influence and popularity among the French and +other Latin inhabitants of Louisiana and New Orleans. He was a native of +France, and a brave and chivalrous corsair, as corsairs go. A price had +already been put upon his head by the American governor, Claiborne. But +so secure was Lafitte in the affections of the Creole people, whom he +served in many ways, that he frequently attended parties and receptions +in New Orleans. Arriving, on such occasions, in the full splendor of his +outlaw state, and bringing joy to the heart of every lady in the room +by his attractive manners as well as by his fame, the pirate chief would +practically defy the authorities to lay a hand upon him. If agents of +the law were sent to arrest him, he knew of it, through a hundred spies, +long before they reached the place, and withdrew at once to some near-by +hiding place which was well known to him. In New Orleans he had a +hundred safe places of refuge. + +Under his command was a force of pirates who were many or few, according +to the exigencies of the moment; for they could masquerade as peaceful +fishermen if necessary, or they could, upon occasion, muster a force of +several hundred at a word's notice--always perfectly armed, perfectly +drilled, thoroughly redoubtable. + +Lafitte preyed impartially upon all the commerce of the Gulf of Mexico, +and, when pursued, ran into one of the numerous mouths of the +Mississippi or some inlet of the Gulf--into Barataria Lake, into Bayou +Lafourche, or into Bayou Teche. There it was vain to follow him, for the +intricacies of these passages were known only to his men or to the +dwellers along their shores, who were in sympathy with him. + +When the British descended upon New Orleans in the autumn of 1813, they +offered Jean Lafitte a captain's commission in the British naval +service, thirty thousand dollars in money, a full pardon for past +offenses and rewards in money and lands for his followers if he would +join them in making war on the Americans. He could easily have done so. +The French people of Louisiana had no keen loyalty for the Stars and +Stripes at that time. As Lafitte went they might have gone. The British +knew this, and made their bait a rich one. + +But Lafitte, although Claiborne's price was on his head, and his brother +Pierre in prison in New Orleans, refused the offer. Instead, he sent +the letters from Captain Lockyer, of the British navy, making this +proposition, to the Louisiana legislature. Later, after Pierre had +escaped, he actually joined General Jackson's nondescript army with a +force of riflemen. He seems to have acted from a very honest love for +the young American republic. + +Jackson, at first, under a misapprehension of the circumstances, had +refused to accept the aid of these "hellish banditti," as he had called +Lafitte's men in a proclamation on his arrival. But when he found that +the British were upon him, and that a considerable proportion of his +poorly equipped militia were without flints for their muskets, he not +only accepted the flints that Lafitte sent him, but gave the pirate an +important command on his right wing. There Jean and his men performed +signal service. + +If Lafitte had joined the British with his men and ships, there is +little likelihood that the Americans would have had in this fight the +powerful aid of the vessels of war _Carolina_ and _Louisiana_, on the +river. Nor is it likely that they would have had the passive support of +the French population. Nor that they would have found any substitute for +the flints with which Lafitte supplied them. And it is very likely that +the British assault upon Jackson's intrenchments would have been +attended with a different result. + +Jackson, indeed, might have been crushed very much as Windsor had been +crushed at Washington, not long before. + +Such a result at New Orleans would not have affected the outcome of the +war, for a peace favorable to the American arms had already been +declared at Ghent. But how profoundly a defeat would have influenced the +personal and political fortunes of Andrew Jackson and all the events in +American history which hung upon his subsequent career! + +General Jackson won the presidency in 1828 because he was the military +hero of the day. His popularity was due to the brilliant victory that he +won at New Orleans. After his defeat in 1824, a spectacular visit which +he made to the field of the 1814 battle renewed the souvenirs of the +great fight and intensified his popularity; and in 1828 he was +triumphantly elected. If he had been defeated in battle by Pakenham, and +New Orleans had been taken, his fame would have been extinguished then +and there. + +And without Jackson--should we ever have had machine politics? It was he +who introduced these into our government. He was the inventor and +discoverer of the spoils system. "To the victors belong the spoils" was +the maxim of his lieutenant, Marcy, and his own principle of action. We +have never been able quite to shake off the system which he fastened +upon the country. Patronage has been the curse of our politics from that +day to this. + +Then there was his determined and disastrous assault on the United +States Bank. Upon this institution, which was founded by Alexander +Hamilton, and whose position somewhat resembled the present position of +the Bank of England, the financial system of the country depended. +Jackson attacked it as a "wicked monopoly," as a concrete expression of +the "money power." He succeeded in wrecking the bank, in bringing on the +panic of 1837, which wrought untold ruin and disaster to the people, and +in inaugurating in its place the system of wildcat State banks and +currency chaos which lasted up to the Civil War. + +But Jackson attacked more than the United States Bank and the principle +that public office is a public trust. He attacked nullification. +Nullification meant that the States could refuse to recognize or obey +the laws of the United States. He struck that dictum hard, when it made +its appearance in South Carolina, and paralyzed it to such an extent +that the portion of the nation which did not believe in secession was +able to get its preponderant growth, and organize its strength, and +prevent disunion, when the test finally came. + +Jackson saved the Union by stunning the nullification snake until the +republic was big enough and strong enough to trample it under foot. And +that, no doubt, was the greatest event that hung on the contingency of +Lafitte's choice of sides at New Orleans. + + + + +CHAPTER XVI + +IF JAMES MACDONNEL HAD NOT CLOSED THE GATES OF HUGOMONT CASTLE + + +According to the Duke of Wellington himself, the success of the allies +at the Battle of Waterloo turned on an amazingly slight contingency, +namely, the closing of a gate or door of wood in the wall of a building. +This fact was conclusively brought out when, years after the battle, an +English clergyman, Rev. Mr. Narcross of Framlingham, died and left in +his will the sum of five hundred pounds simply "to the bravest man in +England." The executors of the estate were completely nonplussed. Who +was the bravest man in England? Doubtless many would have come forward +gladly to claim the distinction and the legacy, but who was worthy of +them? In their trouble, the executors applied to the Duke of Wellington +for an answer to the question. + +The Iron Duke was not a man to be beaten by any question whatsoever, +least of all by a military one. He went back a little in his +recollections--until he came to the battle of Waterloo. Then he wrote to +the executors of the Framlingham parson that that battle was the +greatest that had been fought in recent times. "The success of it," he +went on to say, "turned upon the closing of the gates of Hugomont; these +gates were closed in the most courageous manner, at the very nick of +time, by Sir James Macdonnel; and he is the man to whom you should pay +the five hundred pounds." + +Thereupon the executors went to Sir James with the money; but he said +to them: "I cannot claim all the credit of closing the gates of +Hugomont. My sergeant, John Graham, seeing with me the importance of the +step, rushed forward to help me; and by your leave I will share the +legacy with him." The request was granted, and the fact was to this +extent judicially established that Sir James Macdonnel and John Graham +had closed the gates of Hugomont Castle, thereby settling the issue of +the battle and the fate of Europe. + +Let us see what events hinged upon this act, and how they depended on +it. The army with which the great Napoleon faced the miscellaneous +assortment of British, Prussians, Hanoverians, Dutch and Belgians at +Waterloo was smaller than that of the Allies, but vastly more efficient +as a whole. Most of the troops of the Allies were raw, and some of them +were poor stuff indeed. Napoleon's soldiers were hardened, practiced, +brave and splendidly commanded. + +Napoleon had forced the Allies back at Quatre Bras. He captured their +position at La Haye Sainte. He perceived that the strategic key to the +whole field of battle was the hill crowned by the old stone _château_ of +Hugomont. If that could be taken, Napoleon would be able to attack and +turn Wellington's right flank. That accomplished, a junction of Blücher +and his Prussians with the English would be prevented; the forces of the +Allies would be split in two, and Napoleon would in all probability +defeat them in detail, according to his time-honored method. The emperor +could easily have finished off the Austrians in their turn, as he +planned to do; and the combined European attempt to oust him would have +been frustrated. Thus the Corsican would have been, probably for so long +as he lived, the master of France at the least, even if the checks he +had already received had restricted his mastery of the rest of the +continent. + +Knowing well that upon this cast his fate was staked, Napoleon hurled +his best troops, under Prince Jerome, against the little old _château_ +on the hill. Again and again they assaulted it. Twelve thousand men were +launched against the half-dilapidated castle, which had been pierced +with loopholes for the British riflemen. And now and here came the +crucial incident whose importance was rated so high by Wellington. At a +moment when the chief defence of the _château_ was entrusted to the +Coldstream Guards, under Colonel James Macdonnel, the French were within +a hair's breadth of taking it. They pushed against the gate of the +castle, and had actually forced it open, when the Coldstream Guards +charged out with their bayonets, forcing the advance rank of the French +back a little. + +But the French were pouring up, and could no longer be held back at the +point of the bayonet. It was at this instant, when a slight leeway had +been gained, that Colonel Macdonnel and Sergeant Graham, under a galling +fire from the French, stepped forward and with their own hands closed +the _château_ gates, barricaded them, and thus enabled the troops to +resume their fierce rifle fire from within. + +After this the French made many more assaults on the heavy gates, but +could not force them open again. Wellington meanwhile commanded a +general advance, following a fresh repulse of the French onset; and the +French line was thrown into confusion. He knew that Blücher was now at +hand--it was by this time half-past seven in the evening--to support +him. Blücher, indeed, arrived, and attacked and crushed the broken +French right, forcing Napoleon to retreat in disorder. Thus was +completed the victory which the heroic defence of Hugomont had made +possible. + +The crushing of the British right wing on this occasion, had Napoleon +been able thus to effect it, would have reversed a vast deal of history. +It is not necessary to take an extreme view of the situation to realize +this. On the immediate field, the British, Dutch and Hanoverians must +have been forced back upon Brussels, and Blücher would have been unable +to maintain a front against the French. Even if the remnants of the +allied armies had escaped, and made another stand, Napoleon must +instantly have regained a degree of prestige and position that would +have enabled him to consolidate his power at home and make excellent +terms abroad. Even after Leipsic, when he had seemed to be utterly +beaten, the powers had been willing to give him France's "natural +frontiers"--namely, the Rhine, the Alps and the Pyrenees. + +It is likely that Leipsic and Elba had already taught the emperor wisdom +which would have deterred him from attempting to carry the boundaries of +his domain once more to the Baltic, or to parcel out the rest of Europe +among his relatives and dependents. But within the frontiers I have +named, and west of the Rhine, he must have remained impregnable; and all +the momentous consequences which resulted from his defeat must have been +thwarted and turned aside. + +Out of the victory of the Allies at Waterloo came, first, the banishment +and early death of Napoleon Bonaparte; the placing of Louis XVIII on the +throne of France; the complete subduing of the Revolution; the creation +of the joint kingdom of Holland and Belgium (which meant the modern +intensely industrialized Belgian state, and Leopold, and the Congo); the +aggrandizement and lasting leadership of Prussia in Germany; the +foundation of the modern Italy through the annexation of the Genoese +republic to the Piedmont kingdom; the enlargement of Switzerland by +three cantons taken from France; the taking of Norway from Denmark and +its bestowal upon Sweden; the absorption of what was left of Poland by +Russia--and some other reparceling of territory in an arbitrary sense +which has nevertheless for the most part endured. There is scarcely a +political articulation in Europe to-day which does not date from +Waterloo; new tendencies still operate which had their inception then! + +Indirectly the consequences were momentous. The aggrandizement of +Prussia prepared the way for the unification of Germany and the gradual +atrophy of Austria as a German state. As I have said, the enlargement of +Piedmont foretokened a united Italy, and built up another power which +has contributed to the enforced shrinkage of Austria. The two great +constructive European statesmen of the nineteenth century, Bismarck and +Cavour, were both the children of Waterloo. + +All these tendencies might have been working just the other way if +Colonel Macdonnel had not succeeded in closing the _château_ gates! Yet +more still was in store. Moral and intellectual consequences of greater +moment, perhaps, than the political results, impended. The victory of +the Allies was followed by a period of severe repression of popular +tendencies in Europe. The Holy Alliance, which became a league of +Continental monarchs against liberal ideas, was a direct consequence. It +inaugurated reaction everywhere. And reaction bred in its turn new and +insidious radicalisms. Lassalle, Marx, St. Simon, and Fourier, +Socialists, and Bakunin and Proudhon, first of the Anarchists, were the +offspring of the Holy Alliance, nurtured in the dark corners of +Repression's jail. + +The course of events in Europe would have been far otherwise indeed if +Napoleon's veterans, forcing their way into Hugomont and splitting the +British strength in two, had prepared the way for a long lease of the +power of that adroit and calculating master, who knew so well how to +meet popular demands and still hold his personal sway. In its practical +expression, his system was liberal. Every peasant proprietor in France +to-day holds his acres by virtue of Napoleonic legislation. + +That does not mean that all would have been good in France; far from +that. A strange falsity, a theatric insincerity, lay beneath all the +Napoleonic sentiments and ideals. These qualities color the thought of +France still. Will she ever be able to escape them? These tendencies +would have been many times more powerful if Napoleon had entrenched +himself upon the throne. More than that, they must have passed to other +countries. The shadow of his eagles might lie athwart even our America, +his insidious ideas expressing themselves in our politics and our +intellectual and moral life, if that moment's vast contingency had gone +Napoleon's way at Waterloo. + + + + +CHAPTER XVII + +IF ABRAHAM LINCOLN'S FATHER HAD MOVED SOUTHWARD, NOT NORTHWARD + + +The two sections in the Civil War in America were led by two men, +Abraham Lincoln and Jefferson Davis, the one President of the United +States and the other President of the Confederate States, who were born +within about one hundred miles of each other in the State of Kentucky, +and within nine months of each other in point of time. For it was in +June, 1808, that Jefferson Davis first saw the light in Christian +County, Kentucky, and in February, 1809, that Abraham Lincoln was born +in Hardin County, in the same State. + +Samuel Davis, the father of Jefferson Davis, and Thomas Lincoln, the +father of Abraham Lincoln, were men of the same English-American origin, +and the families were originally of virtually the same class, though +Thomas Lincoln, doubtless as the result of the death of his father at +the hands of the Indians, when Thomas was a child, had fallen somewhat +in the social scale. Both men became dissatisfied with material +conditions in Kentucky at about the same time, and both emigrated with +their families. But Samuel Davis went southward into Mississippi, while +Thomas Lincoln went northward into Indiana. + +That the sons of both these Kentuckians had in them the fire of genius, +the history of their country has abundantly proved. Each was destined by +the compelling force of his character and gifts to play a great part. +Like all other men, each was molded by his environment. The illiterate +Thomas Lincoln was credited by his immortal son with the intention, in +emigrating, to escape from a slave State. But is it not probable that +the son, deeply preoccupied as he was in later years with the subject of +the emancipation of the slaves, had projected backward, by a psychologic +habit common to all mankind, this idea from his own mind into that of +his father? In all probability no other motive than that of accident or +convenience--for Thomas Lincoln was a poor and rather "shiftless" +man--impelled Abraham Lincoln's father to go to Indiana instead of +following the trail which so many of the more enterprising Kentuckians +were taking to Mississippi or Louisiana. It was to that section that +enterprise beckoned, for agriculture was carried on in the Southwest +upon a large scale, and broader plantations were open to the adventuring +settler. Indiana, on the other hand, was a "poor man's country." + +What if Thomas Lincoln had possessed a little more energy, and a few +more shillings, and had gone to Mississippi instead of to Indiana and +afterwards to Illinois? What if he had become a plantation and slave +owner, and had thus subjected his boy Abraham to the overmastering +influence of a southern environment? So far as I can recall, Mississippi +never produced an anti-slavery man. + +In this event, there would have been for the national cause, for the +saving of the Union, for the emancipation of the slaves, no Abraham +Lincoln. On the other hand, the tremendous power and patience of +Lincoln's nature, the majesty and greatness of his character, the +resources of his intellect, would in all likelihood have been added to +the sum of the statesmanship which was enlisted on the Southern side. + +It is even conceivable that Lincoln, rather than Davis, would have been +the president of the Southern Confederacy. Only a combination of the +most extraordinary circumstances made him the nominee of the Republican +party for the presidency in 1860. If he had been the leading statesman +and politician of Mississippi, his path to the Confederate presidency, +as the success of Davis proved, would have been comparatively easy. + +Without Lincoln, the anti-slavery agitation would have gone on just the +same. The Republican party would have been constituted just the same. +Everything up to the 18th day of May, 1860, when Lincoln was nominated +for president at the Wigwam in Chicago, would have gone on just the +same. But lacking Lincoln, what a world of things afterward would have +happened differently! + +In the first place, it is probable that Seward would have been nominated +for president. Very likely he would not have been elected; and as it was +Lincoln who "smoked out" Douglas, it is probable that Douglas would +have prevailed over all other Democratic candidates and been nominated +at Charleston and elected president. + +In which case there would have been no secession, and very likely no +war, either at that time or later. Slavery would have become intrenched, +to yield, perhaps, in the end only to economic influences, the operation +of which had already doomed it. + +But if Seward had been nominated and elected, secession would have taken +place and war would have resulted. The sort of leader that the Union +would have had in Seward may be inferred with perfect certainty from the +famous, or rather infamous, proposition entitled, "Some Thoughts for the +President's Consideration," which Seward solemnly laid before Lincoln +less than a month after his inauguration. This extraordinary document, +one of the most senseless and wicked programmes ever prepared by a man +of state, advocated a change of the national issue from slavery to a +foreign war; it advised that war be at once declared against France and +Spain, and "explanations demanded" from Great Britain and Russia! In +order that this brilliant programme might be carried out successfully, +Seward suggested that he himself be made Dictator! + +This scheme, I repeat, illustrated the sort of alternative material that +we should have had, lacking Lincoln. Chase, indeed, who was also a +leading candidate for the presidency, would have been wiser. But in no +position that he ever held, after 1860, did Chase bring forth any of the +fruits of genius. Cameron, of Pennsylvania, was a greater man, but did +not command general support. Neither did Edward Bates, of Missouri, also +a western candidate for the presidency. + +The great soldiers who finally triumphed in the field as the +instruments of Lincoln's policy and fought their way to victory for the +Union--Grant, Sherman, Thomas, Meade, Sheridan--would have been ranged +on the Northern side just the same whether Lincoln or another had been +at the head of affairs. But it is doubtful whether another president +would have found them out. Lincoln made his own grave mistakes regarding +men. But he put forward no general because that general was _his man_. +He observed and waited. A man of the people himself, grandly simple, he +somehow nosed out the men of the same type. All the generals who proved +great were his discoveries. + +The structure of Lincoln's achievements was not, however, the result of +negative circumstances. It did not rise because things were not just so +and so. It was a positive thing--the result of the active operations of +a powerful genius, which the people recognized before the politicians +and the writers did. In the people's mind, the war was "Old Abe's" war. +It was Old Abe who stood at the helm. Congress did not know it, but it +was really working Lincoln's will. The cabinet did not always know it, +but it was Lincoln who really had his way. He kept his own counsel. He +carried out his plans. + +The people were right. It was Old Abe who was doing things. And without +him the most important things would have gone undone. He was an original +creation--as Lowell said, a "new birth of our new soil, the first +American." Nature, for him, threw aside her old-world molds, + + And, choosing sweet clay from the breast + Of the unexhausted West, + With stuff untainted shaped a hero new, + Wise, steadfast in the strength of God, and true. + +Yet what could be clearer than that Abraham Lincoln, who by birth and +inheritance was of the South, not the West, might have turned his +strength to the support of quite a different cause if the accident of +fate had sent him southward, not northward, in his childhood? + + + + +CHAPTER XVIII + +IF SKIPPER JENNINGS HAD NOT RESCUED CERTAIN SHIPWRECKED JAPANESE + + +Toward the end of the year 1850, Captain Jennings, of the American bark +_Auckland_, trading in Asiatic waters, picked up the shipwrecked crew of +a Japanese fishing vessel, somewhere off the coast of Japan. The captain +was then bound for the new port of San Francisco, which the California +gold-diggings had already made an important city. He continued on his +course, and in due time--that is to say, very early in the year +1851--landed at San Francisco with his party of refugees. + +Here the bright little Orientals were more than a nine days' wonder. +Few Americans had ever before seen a Japanese. That country was at the +time more a "hermit nation" than Korea herself. Whalers and other +sailors who had been wrecked on the Japanese coast had been put to cruel +deaths. No white men except the Dutch had been permitted to trade with +any of the Japanese cities, and the Dutch trade had fallen into decay. +Japan seemed as far from our lives as is the planet Mars. + +But the Japanese whom Captain Jennings had humanely rescued were kindly +treated by him, and on the homeward voyage they had endeared themselves +to him and his crew. He landed them at San Francisco with very favorable +reports of their character, conduct and intelligence. The free-handed +miners of that town wanted nothing better than somebody or something to +lionize. So for a considerable time the shipwrecked Japanese had the +best of everything in San Francisco, until an opportunity arose to send +them, fat and happy, back to their own country. + +A full account of the incident and of the refugees was published in one +of the San Francisco papers. It fell into the hands of just one man who +was capable of perceiving the momentous possibilities that lay in the +occurrence. This man was a commodore in the United States navy; and his +name was not Perry, as the reader may at first surmise, but John H. +Aulick. He was a Virginian, then in his sixty-second year; he had had a +long and very honorable service, and was keen and statesmanlike in his +ideas. + +What Commodore Aulick saw in the incident was this: The kind and +friendly reception of the Japanese waifs in America, contrasted with the +ordinary treatment of white refugees in Japan, might be taken advantage +of to open friendly relations with Japan. To effect this result, a +naval expedition should be sent to Japan. If properly conducted, the +expedition not only might secure friendly treatment of American whalers +on the Japanese coasts, but might open up trade relations with the +country which would be highly profitable. + +Filled with his idea, which was really a great one, Commodore Aulick +obtained permission to lay it before the secretary of state, who was +none other than Daniel Webster. He had an interview with Mr. Webster at +Washington on the 9th day of May, 1851. + +Webster saw the point at once. At his instance, President Fillmore +ordered the navy department to prepare a small expedition for the voyage +to Japan; and when the ships were ready--they were headed by the sloop +of war _Mississippi_--Commodore Aulick was put in command. He actually +sailed on the voyage; but he was entrusted with the task of taking the +Brazilian minister as far as Rio Janeiro on the way, and some trouble +having arisen with this functionary for which Commodore Aulick was +blamed, he was superseded in command of the expedition by Commodore +Matthew Calbraith Perry, in command of the _Hartford_. + +It was Perry, therefore, who "opened up Japan." His name will be +associated, as long as the story of the two nations is told, with the +event. But it was Aulick's idea, not Perry's; and it all hung upon the +luck which those Japanese fishermen, waifs upon a boundless ocean, had +in being picked up by a generous Yankee skipper, and in finding their +way to so wholehearted and so hospitable a city toward "Mongolian" +wanderers as San Francisco was--then! + +If this incident had not suggested and been followed by the Aulick-Perry +expedition, what then? Russian authorities have claimed that Russia was +preparing a similar expedition at the time when Secretary Webster--"too +zealous," according to their view--sent the United States ships on their +way. There is good reason to believe that the Russian government would +have been slow in making such an infinitely clever move as the Perry +expedition constituted. Yet if the United States had not taken the step, +Russia would have stood next in the line of logical inheritance to the +idea. And if Japan had been opened under Russian auspices, its doors, +instead of standing open toward the East, and consequently toward _our_ +West, would have opened toward the Asiatic continental West, which would +have meant toward St. Petersburg. + +If the Japanese had, under Russian initiative, adopted the material +adjuncts of western civilization, as they finally did under ours, that +civilization would have taken on a distinctly Muscovite color. The +Japanese would never, indeed, have been able, under such auspices, to +organize an effective resistance to Russian arms, for long before they +had acquired the requisite training they must have been held firmly in +the grip of the Russian military system. + +That is to say, Japan would have been, step by step, annexed to the +Russian empire. The Russo-Japanese war would never have been, since +there would have been neither hope nor occasion for it. Most of the rich +fruits of Japanese art and industry would have drifted toward Russia. +The Russian empire would have been enormously enriched by the Japanese +trade, and the importance of that empire immensely magnified in the +history of our epoch. A reflex orientalizing influence would have rolled +over Russia itself, and the course of Russian internal development +altered in a degree now almost incalculable. + +If Russia had not been reasonably prompt to take the step, the eyes of +British statesmen must sooner or later have been opened to the +opportunity. The method by which British intervention proceeds in +Asiatic countries is well known. It has always had but slight regard for +native sovereignty, no matter how high the state of social or artistic +or intellectual development on the part of the native races affected. +British administrators, or, if Japan had retained its nominal +sovereignty, British "residents" or agents, would really have governed +the country through the Tycoon or the Mikado, or both--preferably the +Tycoon, for he was a military ruler, and affairs could have been handled +more readily through him. + +Events in Japan must have anticipated the subsequent history of Egypt, +on a much more magnificent scale. Again, though there would have been a +readier entrance for American and European trade than in the case of +Russian intervention, the best of everything Japanese would certainly +have gone to England. And once again, the free, independent, powerful, +masterful Japanese empire of the present day, thrilling with a new life +in which all the civilization of the Occident is made the handmaid of an +ancient and undaunted Asiatic people, would not have been. + +In the unlikely event that the Japanese, in default of Perry's +expedition, had been left quite alone for another generation or two, +their case would not have been better in the long run. They would simply +have missed the chance they got. Left a "hermit nation," they would +sooner or later have fallen under the influence of one Western country +or another, and been so seriously retarded in the race of civilization +that they could never have caught up. + +America was the only country that could have opened to them the +wonderful career that they have had. The high noon of the nineteenth +century was the golden moment for the commencement of their development +along the line of Western civilization. If the hour had not struck then +for them it would not have struck at all. Time, the helping hand, the +protecting influence of an unselfish friend among the nations, and the +golden gift of destiny, were all represented for Japan in the rescuing +sails of Skipper Jennings's bark, that lucky day in the wide Pacific. + + + + +CHAPTER XIX + +IF ORSINI'S BOMB HAD NOT FAILED TO DESTROY NAPOLEON III + + +Edward A. Freeman wrote, after the fall of the second Bonaparte empire: +"The work of Richelieu is utterly undone, the work of Henry II and Louis +XIV is partially undone; the Rhine now neither crosses nor waters a +single rood of French ground. As it was in the first beginnings of +northern European history, so it is now; Germany lies on both sides of +the German river." This was not by any means the whole of the work +wrought by that adventurer on an imperial throne, Napoleon III, through +his disastrous war against a united Germany. He accomplished also the +slaughter of five hundred thousand men, and the impoverishment of +millions. He sounded the death knell of monarchical adventuring in +France, which was indeed one good result of the Napoleonic _débâcle_, +but he also fastened militarism, in the form of excessive and +progressively increasing peace armaments, upon Europe, and magnified +public debts and taxation to the limit of endurance. + +Every event here mentioned was a direct development, not of Napoleon +III's original seizure of the French throne, but of the final years, and +the eventual overthrow of his power--the overthrow itself due to the +Franco-Prussian war. A single event, criminal in its character, might +have prevented these results. That great benefits sometimes eventuate +from men's crimes is no news, and no longer a marvel, to the +philosopher, who, when good comes of evil, is apt to repeat the words, +"God moves in a mysterious way his wonders to perform." + +The evil deed to which I have here referred, which would have saved the +lives of five hundred thousand people and left the river Rhine still +washing the confines of France, was the aiming of Orsini's bomb on the +evening of the 14th of January, 1858. This bomb was designed to take the +life of the emperor of the French. If the attempt had succeeded, and +Napoleon had died as Alexander II of Russia and King Humbert of Italy +afterward died, there would have been no Franco-German war. The throne +of the baby Napoleon IV, who was then less than two years old, very +likely would not have endured long; but whether the third republic had +immediately arisen, or whether the Orleans Bourbons had been restored to +the throne, it would have been found easy to preserve the peace with +Prussia and Germany. + +For Napoleon III deliberately, and with malignant ingenuity, provoked +war with Germany in 1870. There is now no doubt that Bismarck desired +such a war. He afterward confessed that he deceived the aged King +William in such a way that all chance of peace at Ems was lost. But +nevertheless the provocation of Napoleon was direct and deliberate. + +His grievance was that the Hohenzollern prince, Leopold, had consented +to become a candidate for the vacant throne of Spain. King William +withdrew Prince Leopold's candidature. This really destroyed Napoleon's +pretext for bringing on a war. But he desired a foreign war in order to +forestall revolutionary opposition at home, which threatened to become +irresistible. Napoleon thereupon caused his ambassador, Benedetti, +insolently, and in a manner quite unbearable, to demand personally from +King William a declaration that no Hohenzollern should ever be +permitted to become king of Spain. King William treated this insolence +as it deserved, and France, thereupon, declared war against Prussia. + +What followed, the world knows. The consequences were tremendous. France +was maimed of Alsace and Lorraine. Half a million of the flower of the +manhood of both nations perished. France taxed herself with five +millions of francs of indemnity, and though she has paid the debt to +Germany, she still owes it to her own citizens. The difficulties of +French government and finance were increased prodigiously and +indefinitely by the war and the empire's delinquencies. + +And all as a result contingent upon the failure of a criminal act! +Felice Orsini meant to kill Napoleon III, and he and his two companions +did kill ten innocent persons, and did wound one hundred and fifty +others. Yet the man for whom their bombs were intended--the adventurer +who had once been their comrade as a member of the Italian secret +society, the Carbonari, but who had afterward betrayed the cause of +Italian independence by leading an army into the peninsula and restoring +the papal power--escaped unharmed, to wind the trail of his infamous +conspiracies through European politics for twelve years longer. If the +bomb had done its direful work, one man, utterly without character or +conscience, would have died, and five hundred thousand men, mostly +honest, good and true, would have lived. As it happened, the one man was +spared, to make a vast holocaust of human life twelve years later. + +It is, indeed, strange that the averting of a single crime may sometimes +precipitate a myriad of other crimes. + + + + +CHAPTER XX + +IF PRESIDENT BUCHANAN HAD ENFORCED THE LAW IN NOVEMBER, 1860 + + +Speaking of the lighting of the fires of civil war in this country in +the years 1860 and 1861, Charles Francis Adams said, in 1873, "One +single hour of the will displayed by General Jackson would have stifled +the fire in its cradle." The metaphor in the last phrase is peculiar, +and strangely Celtic for a Yankee, but the history is true. + +Montgomery Blair expressed the idea with greater plainness and vividness +in that same year, 1873, in these words, "If we could have held Fort +Sumter, there never would have been a drop of blood shed." Both these +remarks were made by men who had been in some sense actors in the events +to which they referred, and made after years of reflection upon the +circumstances. + +It does not seem to Americans of the present generation that there was +ever a moment, after the election of Abraham Lincoln, when the Civil War +could have been averted. It appears, in retrospect, to have been +absolutely inevitable. Yet there was certainly one moment when, if +President Buchanan had had the courage to apply the general views which +he himself advanced in his annual message to Congress of December 3, +1860, and his special message of January 8, 1861, which explicitly +denied the right of secession, a halt might have been called to the +growing rebellion. + +The secession movement was at first concentrated in the State of South +Carolina. That State, all through the winter of 1860-1861, was +presenting to the rest of the South an object lesson of successful +nullification. + +In 1833 South Carolina had ordained nullification, but its ordinance was +so instantly and heavily repressed by President Andrew Jackson that the +State was absolutely unable to carry it out, or to move hand or foot. +But now, in 1860, it did not merely ordain nullification--it enacted it. +Every Federal judge, every judicial servant, and nearly every Federal +official, in South Carolina, resigned, and the nation was left without +an agent to enforce its laws, for no new ones were sent in. The United +States authority in the State was at an end, save for the custom house +at Charleston and Fort Moultrie in Charleston harbor. + +As long as South Carolina was let alone, her case plainly said to all +the other slave States, "You see we can withdraw from the Union; we have +withdrawn from the Union; and the Union takes no step to keep us in; +you can do the same thing." + +At this time North Carolina and Virginia were opposed to secession. +Governor Sam Houston, of Texas, stood like a rock against it. Kentucky, +Maryland, Missouri, never seceded. Other States were wavering. A great +deal depended on the degree of success which South Carolina, the leader +in the revolt, might have. And it was Buchanan who permitted South +Carolina's success to become apparently complete, though in the message +to which I have referred the president declared that secession was +"wholly inconsistent with the Constitution," that "no human power could +absolve him (the president) from his duty to enforce the laws," and that +the danger of national disruption was upon the country. Buchanan, in his +December message, actually quoted Jackson's solemn denunciation of the +doctrine that a State had a right to separate itself from the Union. + +But while he was making these terrible admissions of his own duty, what +was Buchanan doing? Instead of holding up the hands of the nation's +representatives in South Carolina, he was weakening them. Instead of +strengthening the Federal garrison in Charleston harbor, he permitted +it to dwindle until it was powerless to take a single step. Not one act, +indeed, did he perform, but contented himself with calling on Congress +for legislation to meet the emergency. And out of Congress, of course, +he could get nothing, for the Southern representatives would vote for no +such legislation, and the Republican members were bent upon waiting +until Lincoln, who had been elected president, came in in March, and the +northern Democrats were paralyzed with pusillanimity. + +So South Carolina went on proving to the other slave States that it +could "go it alone." One after another these other States seceded from +the Union. Northern arsenals were stripped of arms. Southern officers +went out of the army one by one, and made ready to organize the army of +the new Confederacy which was forming under the president's nose. + +It was a time for the strong arm, and for quick, decisive, Jacksonian, +and not at all squeamish, action. But no such action was taken. The +golden moment was lost, and when, three months afterward, Lincoln came +in at last, war, with all its horrors, was upon the country. + +If the young rebellion had been truly nipped in the bud, as it might +have been, by a rigid enforcement, in November and December, 1860, of +Federal judicial processes in South Carolina; if the laws of the United +States had been enforced in that State at the point of the bayonet, if +need be; if a Federal functionary, sustained by an ample force of United +States troops, had torn South Carolina's ordinance of secession into +shreds on the steps of the capitol at Columbia, with no tender regard +for South Carolina's interpretation of the Constitution, is it likely +that South Carolina's sister States would have been so prompt at +seceding? + +Very likely it might not have been necessary to do any of these things. +If Buchanan had merely stood up and said, as Jackson did in 1833, "I +shall enforce the laws of the United States in spite of any and all +resistance that may be made," there might well have been no more of +secession in 1860 or 1861 than there had been of real nullification in +1833. + +And if this step had been taken, and there had been no war, what then? +What about slavery? it may be asked. Is it conceivable that northern +sentiment would have permitted chattel slavery to continue? Was not war +inevitable on that main question alone? Let us see. The sentiment for +absolute and sudden emancipation was the product of the war. Lincoln +was not an Abolitionist. The Republican party was not Abolitionist. + +Without war, but with the Southern States held within the Union, +sentiment in the North would have been favorable to a compromise which +would have prevented the extension of slavery; and events would surely +have brought about a gradual liberation of the blacks in the South, as +events soon ended slavery in Brazil and Cuba. The institution was +doomed, morally and economically. + +But there would have been no negro suffrage. That was enforced by +conditions which grew out of the war. The South would not have been +impoverished, and it could have afforded a gradual education of the +negro in such a way as to fit him for free industry, and, in a limited +way, for the exercise of the suffrage. There would have been no +disturbing reversal of the position of the two races, to be followed by +a violent restoration of white supremacy and an accompanying +development of inveterate hostility between whites and blacks. The +sections would not have drifted apart in industrial conditions and +social constitution as they did under the influence of the war; we +should not have had, perhaps, a money-mad North to counterbalance a +ruined, desolated, disheartened South. + +And where, at Antietam, at Gettysburg, at Fredericksburg, at +Chattanooga, and on many humbler fields, the flags wave over the even +ranks of myriads of soldier graves, the mocking-birds would sing in +thickets which the bullet's hiss and the shriek of the shell had never +profaned, while their teeming populations of dead men would either be +alive to-day or entombed among their loved ones after lives of peaceful +usefulness. + + + + +CHAPTER XXI + +IF THE CONFEDERATES HAD MARCHED ON WASHINGTON AFTER BULL RUN + + +There have been a great many attempts to excuse or minimize the failure +of General Joseph E. Johnston to follow up the tremendous Confederate +victory won by his second in command, General G. T. Beauregard, at Bull +Run, July 21, 1861. That the Federal army was beaten literally to a pulp +there can be no doubt. General Irwin McDowell, who commanded the Union +forces, officially reported, after the battle, that all his troops were +in flight "in a state of utter disorganization." "They could not," he +wired on July 22d, "be prepared for action by to-morrow morning even +were they willing. The larger part of the men are a confused mob, +entirely demoralized." They were actually running away in such a state +of panic that they could not get away, for commissary and ammunition +wagons, congressmen's and other spectators' horses and carriages, +artillery and sutlers' wagons were blocking the road, and panicstricken +soldiers were falling over one another. When General McClellan came to +take command after McDowell had been superseded, he reported this state +of affairs: "I found no army to command--a mere collection of regiments +cowering on the banks of the Potomac, some perfectly raw, others +dispirited by defeat." + +To reach the spot where the beaten raw recruits were thus cowering, +General Johnston and General Beauregard had to advance only twenty +miles, over a road every foot of which was well known to them. That the +Federal army was in ignominious flight they were well aware, for they +reported it joyfully to the government at Richmond. Why did they settle +down into utter inaction and allow McClellan to fortify the capital and +organize, drill and inspire with hope and confidence a great army? + +There are a good many "ifs" in connection with the actual fighting of +the battle of Bull Run, but this "if" that comes after it--if the elated +and triumphant Confederate army had immediately advanced to the Potomac, +invested the intrenchments at Arlington Heights and, very likely, +effected a crossing above or near the Great Falls of the river, and +flanked the capital of the Union--is the greatest and most interesting +of them all. + +General Beauregard actually commanded at the battle on the 21st, because +General Johnston, who ranked him, had but just arrived on the scene and +was unfamiliar with the ground and the disposition of the troops. But +he, Johnston, became responsible for the further prosecution of the +campaign, once the battle was won. It was in large measure his fault +that the fruits of victory were not reaped. + +The commonly accepted explanation of the matter is that the Confederates +were "almost as much disorganized by victory as the Federals were by +defeat;" that they had no fresh troops and no cavalry with which to +pursue, and that Arlington Heights were too well fortified to be +attacked. + +But General Beauregard, sore at the attempt to rob him of the laurels of +victory, has been able to show that all of the Confederate brigades of +Ewell, Holmes, D. R. Jones and Longstreet, and two regiments of Bonham's +brigade, were perfectly fresh and unharmed after the fight; that Early's +brigade had hardly been under fire; that new regiments had come up +during the day; that the fresh troops in all numbered at least fifteen +thousand; that more than half the Confederate army, in fact, had not +been engaged--a very unusual proportion after an important battle. "The +remaining forces, after a night's rest," says Beauregard himself, "would +have been instantly reorganized and found thoroughly safe to join the +advance." + +Apparently nothing but shame on the Northern side, and an unwillingness +on the Southern side to discredit their great generals, has prevented a +full acknowledgment of the fatal tactics which prevented an advance on +the Potomac after Bull Run. + +Now let us see what would have resulted from a Confederate investment of +Washington in the summer of 1861. Federal troops had already been +attacked in the streets of Baltimore. That city was preponderantly +disloyal, and had to be garrisoned with Union troops. Missouri had not +yet been won to the Union. Maryland, Delaware and Kentucky, all of +which were necessary to the maintenance of the Northern position, were +slave States, and their loyalty was doubtful. If the capital of the +Union had been taken, all these States, in spite of their previous +unwillingness to join the secession movement, would probably have been +impelled by strong self-interest to range themselves on the side of the +other slave States; and the Confederacy would have been strengthened by +the addition of at least four States. + +There was an important party among the Confederates from the western +Southern States--it was led by Postmaster-General John H. Reagan and +included General Albert Sidney Johnston--who believed in advancing at +the very outset into Kentucky and making the Ohio River the first line +of Southern defense. The plan was rejected by Davis and his advisers. It +was an unfortunate rejection. The Confederacy was finally beaten +because it was flanked in the west and cut in two at Vicksburg. But if +Washington had been captured or invested after Bull Run, it is certain +that the Confederate line would have been pushed to the Ohio, and it +would probably have been held there. The advantage gained by McClellan +in West Virginia would have been lost, for he would practically have +found himself within the Confederate lines and would have been compelled +to withdraw into Pennsylvania. + +Even as matters were, the position of the Union was highly precarious +all through the summer and autumn of 1861. There were signs of a demand +for peace in the North. Lincoln's own party was turning against him. The +sympathy of Europe was rapidly passing over to the Confederacy. But so +long as Lincoln stood firm in the White House and Congress sat at the +capital, "the government at Washington still lived," and the people +felt it. The truce so kindly, so inexplicably permitted by Davis and Lee +and Johnston enabled McClellan to organize and drill a great army, to +fortify the capital, to spread renewed confidence in the North, and, in +short, to establish a fulcrum for future victory. + +This was not the last time that opportunity knocked at the door of the +Confederacy. It knocked again, and loudly, as will be shown in the next +chapter, the same year. Either event, taken alone, appears decisive. For +as we contemplate the events of the 21st of July, 1861, it quite appears +as if the flag of two republics--three, perhaps, and conceivably +four--might have been flying over this great American domain to-day if +Johnston had pressed his advance down the Warrenton turnpike early +Monday morning, July 22d. Wars, divisions, European intrusion, +retrogression and darkness would have been America's fate, instead of +that imperial advance, with liberty and union, which has dazzled and +heartened the whole world. + + + + +CHAPTER XXII + +IF THE CONFEDERATE STATES HAD PURCHASED THE EAST INDIA COMPANY'S FLEET +IN 1861 + + +In the preceding chapter I have noted the disastrous consequences of the +rejection of John H. Reagan's plan, urged at Montgomery at the very +foundation of the Confederacy, for the prompt occupation of the south +bank of the Ohio River as the advanced line of defense, and the equally +unfavorable result of the failure of Johnston to press on to the Potomac +after the great success at Manassas. Gettysburg was a pivotal combat, +also; for if Lee had been supported by Stuart's cavalry on that +occasion, there is at least a possibility that the war's tide might have +been turned then and there. + +But there was a narrower contingency than either one of these. To a +positively decisive extent, the success of the National forces in +subjugating the Southern States turned on the sea power. The conquest of +the Confederacy was in fact a matter of supreme difficulty as it was; +and if the South had possessed a respectable navy, and had been able to +keep its ports open and steadily exchange its cotton in Europe for the +materials and munitions of war, the conquest would not have been +possible at all. + +The chance for the establishment of such a navy lay within the grasp of +the Confederate statesmen, and was by them let slip. Neither they, nor +any one else at the time, realized how easy the thing would have been. + +It is first necessary to explain in what situation the National +government was, at the outset of the war, in the matter of a naval +force. Nominally the United States navy consisted of ninety vessels, but +of these fifty were utterly obsolete and unusable except as supply +ships. Of the other forty, twenty were in a state of hopeless +unreadiness. Several of the best ships were in the remotest corners of +the world. The home squadron was composed of twelve ships, of which only +seven were steamers! Nearly fifty years after the invention of steam +navigation, the United States depended principally upon sailing vessels +for its defense. Only three trustworthy warships were left in Northern +waters for the defense of such ports as New York, Boston and +Philadelphia. + +As between the North and the South, the chance to wield the sea power +lay with the one of the two rival governments which should first put on +the water even a very small fleet of ironclad, steam-driven vessels. The +Confederacy proved afterward what power could be exerted in this +direction with but one single ironclad, when the _Merrimac_ destroyed or +scattered all the ships in Hampton Roads, for a moment threatened +Washington and the Northern cities with ravage, and was checked at last +only by the almost providential appearance of another ironclad, +Ericsson's little _Monitor_, on the scene. And the _Alabama's_ armor of +chains made her for a time almost a match for the United States navy. + +By what means could the Confederacy have forestalled the North in the +provision of a really effective navy? The chance, as I have said, was +offered, and declined, with fatal want of foresight. It lay in the ten +steamships of the English East India Company, which in 1861 was winding +up its affairs. These ships were offered to the Confederacy at a fair +valuation. They were very good vessels, and capable of prompt armoring +in at least as effective a style as that in which the _Alabama_ was +afterwards armored. The East India Company was prepared to make such +terms as the Confederate government could have met. + +British outfitters were perfectly willing to trust the Southern +statesmen. The ships could have been armed in a few weeks; there was +nothing to prevent their entrance into Southern ports, for the blockade +was not made effective until one year after the war broke out. The +_Otero_, renamed by the Confederates the _Florida_, had no difficulty in +taking on her men and guns in the Bahamas. + +Possessed of ten good steam vessels, commanded by such men as Maury, +Maffitt of the _Florida_, and Semmes of the _Alabama_, the Confederacy +could have quickly overcome its lack of mechanics and workshops by +importation from Europe. It was the command of the Mississippi, the +Cumberland and the Tennessee rivers which "broke the back of the +Confederacy"; and does any one imagine that the wooden ships of +Farragut could have entered the Mississippi, compelled the abandonment +of New Orleans, and secured the possession of not only the seacoast but +the inland river waters which commanded the Confederacy from the rear, +if there had been any good ships to resist him? + +The start which these ten ships would have given a Confederate navy +would have more than put the South even with the North on the sea. It +must be remembered that up to 1862, even as it was, the South could do +better in the courts and exchanges of Europe than the Union could. Why? +Because the South had the cotton, upon which the mills of Europe +depended. The continued chance to market cotton would have saved the +situation for the South. _Alabamas_ in any requisite number would have +issued from British shipyards. + +As it was, several powerful rams were under construction for the +Confederacy in 1861 and 1862 in the yards of the Lairds. But the +continued insistence of Minister Adams on the unlawfulness of this +proceeding, joined with the fact that the Confederates had no +recognizable navy to back up their purchases, at last compelled the +British government to take these rams over and add them to its own sea +power. + +President Jefferson Davis declined the offer of the East India ships for +the apparent reason that the military necessities of the Confederacy +pressed hard upon the financial resources of the new government. Every +member of his government was quite thoroughly convinced that the +National power could not successfully invade the South, provided a +strong army were quickly put into the field. The ready material for good +soldiers was much more abundant in the South than in the North; nearly +all Southern men were horsemen, hunters, marksmen, out-of-door men. On +the other hand, the first levies from the North were mostly city men, +unaccustomed to firearms, strangers to exposure, flabby of physique. +Manassas amply illustrated the great superiority as soldiers of the +first comers from the South over the first comers from the North. + +The Confederate leaders counted upon making permanent the advantage +which they were confident of gaining in the field at the outset. To +purchase out of hand ten steamships, from resources that were yet to be +created, and with the manhood of seven States demanding to be armed, +looked, indeed, like madness. And yet this was the very card which, if +played, would have saved the Confederacy's game. + +Conceive for a moment the Union navy debarred from entrance into the +James or any of the navigable waters of Virginia, to support military +operations in the direction of Richmond. Conceive Wilmington, N. C., +which was an easily defensible port, and which really remained open to +the blockade runners for almost two years after the beginning of the +war, rendered a fairly safe point of departure for European trade +throughout the war. Conceive the Mississippi, from Cairo southward to +its mouth, continuously under the power of the Confederacy, with a fleet +of river gunboats backed up by a Gulf squadron. Does any one imagine +that in that case the North could have made either any warlike or +commercial use of the Ohio, the Cumberland, the Tennessee, or even the +Mississippi from Cairo up to St. Louis? + +Freed from the unceasing coast menace and from the danger of being cut +in two along the rivers, the effectiveness of the land forces would have +been more than doubled. Leaving out of the account the possibility of +offensive operations against Washington and the cities of the North, +the defense of the seceded States could have been made so secure that +the people of the North would have called loudly for peace; the border +slave States would have cast in their lot with the Confederacy, and +England and France would have openly sided with the South; secession +would have triumphed definitely before the end of the year 1863. + +With the English East India Company, it was a case of "take our ships or +leave them." The South left them, and with them it left its chance for +independence and for putting two mediocre American republics in the +place where one great one, after that decisive moment, was bound to +stand forever. + + + + + * * * * * + + + + +Transcriber's note: + +Obvious punctuation errors were corrected. + + + +***END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE IFS OF HISTORY*** + + +******* This file should be named 34086-8.txt or 34086-8.zip ******* + + +This and all associated files of various formats will be found in: +http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/3/4/0/8/34086 + + + +Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions +will be renamed. + +Creating the works from public domain print editions means that no +one owns a United States copyright in these works, so the Foundation +(and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United States without +permission and without paying copyright royalties. Special rules, +set forth in the General Terms of Use part of this license, apply to +copying and distributing Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works to +protect the PROJECT GUTENBERG-tm concept and trademark. Project +Gutenberg is a registered trademark, and may not be used if you +charge for the eBooks, unless you receive specific permission. If you +do not charge anything for copies of this eBook, complying with the +rules is very easy. You may use this eBook for nearly any purpose +such as creation of derivative works, reports, performances and +research. They may be modified and printed and given away--you may do +practically ANYTHING with public domain eBooks. Redistribution is +subject to the trademark license, especially commercial +redistribution. + + + +*** START: FULL LICENSE *** + +THE FULL PROJECT GUTENBERG LICENSE +PLEASE READ THIS BEFORE YOU DISTRIBUTE OR USE THIS WORK + +To protect the Project Gutenberg-tm mission of promoting the free +distribution of electronic works, by using or distributing this work +(or any other work associated in any way with the phrase "Project +Gutenberg"), you agree to comply with all the terms of the Full Project +Gutenberg-tm License (available with this file or online at +http://www.gutenberg.org/license). + + +Section 1. General Terms of Use and Redistributing Project Gutenberg-tm +electronic works + +1.A. By reading or using any part of this Project Gutenberg-tm +electronic work, you indicate that you have read, understand, agree to +and accept all the terms of this license and intellectual property +(trademark/copyright) agreement. If you do not agree to abide by all +the terms of this agreement, you must cease using and return or destroy +all copies of Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works in your possession. +If you paid a fee for obtaining a copy of or access to a Project +Gutenberg-tm electronic work and you do not agree to be bound by the +terms of this agreement, you may obtain a refund from the person or +entity to whom you paid the fee as set forth in paragraph 1.E.8. + +1.B. "Project Gutenberg" is a registered trademark. It may only be +used on or associated in any way with an electronic work by people who +agree to be bound by the terms of this agreement. There are a few +things that you can do with most Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works +even without complying with the full terms of this agreement. See +paragraph 1.C below. There are a lot of things you can do with Project +Gutenberg-tm electronic works if you follow the terms of this agreement +and help preserve free future access to Project Gutenberg-tm electronic +works. See paragraph 1.E below. + +1.C. The Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation ("the Foundation" +or PGLAF), owns a compilation copyright in the collection of Project +Gutenberg-tm electronic works. Nearly all the individual works in the +collection are in the public domain in the United States. If an +individual work is in the public domain in the United States and you are +located in the United States, we do not claim a right to prevent you from +copying, distributing, performing, displaying or creating derivative +works based on the work as long as all references to Project Gutenberg +are removed. Of course, we hope that you will support the Project +Gutenberg-tm mission of promoting free access to electronic works by +freely sharing Project Gutenberg-tm works in compliance with the terms of +this agreement for keeping the Project Gutenberg-tm name associated with +the work. You can easily comply with the terms of this agreement by +keeping this work in the same format with its attached full Project +Gutenberg-tm License when you share it without charge with others. + +1.D. The copyright laws of the place where you are located also govern +what you can do with this work. Copyright laws in most countries are in +a constant state of change. If you are outside the United States, check +the laws of your country in addition to the terms of this agreement +before downloading, copying, displaying, performing, distributing or +creating derivative works based on this work or any other Project +Gutenberg-tm work. The Foundation makes no representations concerning +the copyright status of any work in any country outside the United +States. + +1.E. Unless you have removed all references to Project Gutenberg: + +1.E.1. The following sentence, with active links to, or other immediate +access to, the full Project Gutenberg-tm License must appear prominently +whenever any copy of a Project Gutenberg-tm work (any work on which the +phrase "Project Gutenberg" appears, or with which the phrase "Project +Gutenberg" is associated) is accessed, displayed, performed, viewed, +copied or distributed: + +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + +1.E.2. If an individual Project Gutenberg-tm electronic work is derived +from the public domain (does not contain a notice indicating that it is +posted with permission of the copyright holder), the work can be copied +and distributed to anyone in the United States without paying any fees +or charges. If you are redistributing or providing access to a work +with the phrase "Project Gutenberg" associated with or appearing on the +work, you must comply either with the requirements of paragraphs 1.E.1 +through 1.E.7 or obtain permission for the use of the work and the +Project Gutenberg-tm trademark as set forth in paragraphs 1.E.8 or +1.E.9. + +1.E.3. If an individual Project Gutenberg-tm electronic work is posted +with the permission of the copyright holder, your use and distribution +must comply with both paragraphs 1.E.1 through 1.E.7 and any additional +terms imposed by the copyright holder. Additional terms will be linked +to the Project Gutenberg-tm License for all works posted with the +permission of the copyright holder found at the beginning of this work. + +1.E.4. Do not unlink or detach or remove the full Project Gutenberg-tm +License terms from this work, or any files containing a part of this +work or any other work associated with Project Gutenberg-tm. + +1.E.5. Do not copy, display, perform, distribute or redistribute this +electronic work, or any part of this electronic work, without +prominently displaying the sentence set forth in paragraph 1.E.1 with +active links or immediate access to the full terms of the Project +Gutenberg-tm License. + +1.E.6. You may convert to and distribute this work in any binary, +compressed, marked up, nonproprietary or proprietary form, including any +word processing or hypertext form. However, if you provide access to or +distribute copies of a Project Gutenberg-tm work in a format other than +"Plain Vanilla ASCII" or other format used in the official version +posted on the official Project Gutenberg-tm web site (www.gutenberg.org), +you must, at no additional cost, fee or expense to the user, provide a +copy, a means of exporting a copy, or a means of obtaining a copy upon +request, of the work in its original "Plain Vanilla ASCII" or other +form. Any alternate format must include the full Project Gutenberg-tm +License as specified in paragraph 1.E.1. + +1.E.7. Do not charge a fee for access to, viewing, displaying, +performing, copying or distributing any Project Gutenberg-tm works +unless you comply with paragraph 1.E.8 or 1.E.9. + +1.E.8. You may charge a reasonable fee for copies of or providing +access to or distributing Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works provided +that + +- You pay a royalty fee of 20% of the gross profits you derive from + the use of Project Gutenberg-tm works calculated using the method + you already use to calculate your applicable taxes. The fee is + owed to the owner of the Project Gutenberg-tm trademark, but he + has agreed to donate royalties under this paragraph to the + Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation. Royalty payments + must be paid within 60 days following each date on which you + prepare (or are legally required to prepare) your periodic tax + returns. Royalty payments should be clearly marked as such and + sent to the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation at the + address specified in Section 4, "Information about donations to + the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation." + +- You provide a full refund of any money paid by a user who notifies + you in writing (or by e-mail) within 30 days of receipt that s/he + does not agree to the terms of the full Project Gutenberg-tm + License. You must require such a user to return or + destroy all copies of the works possessed in a physical medium + and discontinue all use of and all access to other copies of + Project Gutenberg-tm works. + +- You provide, in accordance with paragraph 1.F.3, a full refund of any + money paid for a work or a replacement copy, if a defect in the + electronic work is discovered and reported to you within 90 days + of receipt of the work. + +- You comply with all other terms of this agreement for free + distribution of Project Gutenberg-tm works. + +1.E.9. If you wish to charge a fee or distribute a Project Gutenberg-tm +electronic work or group of works on different terms than are set +forth in this agreement, you must obtain permission in writing from +both the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation and Michael +Hart, the owner of the Project Gutenberg-tm trademark. Contact the +Foundation as set forth in Section 3 below. + +1.F. + +1.F.1. Project Gutenberg volunteers and employees expend considerable +effort to identify, do copyright research on, transcribe and proofread +public domain works in creating the Project Gutenberg-tm +collection. Despite these efforts, Project Gutenberg-tm electronic +works, and the medium on which they may be stored, may contain +"Defects," such as, but not limited to, incomplete, inaccurate or +corrupt data, transcription errors, a copyright or other intellectual +property infringement, a defective or damaged disk or other medium, a +computer virus, or computer codes that damage or cannot be read by +your equipment. + +1.F.2. LIMITED WARRANTY, DISCLAIMER OF DAMAGES - Except for the "Right +of Replacement or Refund" described in paragraph 1.F.3, the Project +Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation, the owner of the Project +Gutenberg-tm trademark, and any other party distributing a Project +Gutenberg-tm electronic work under this agreement, disclaim all +liability to you for damages, costs and expenses, including legal +fees. YOU AGREE THAT YOU HAVE NO REMEDIES FOR NEGLIGENCE, STRICT +LIABILITY, BREACH OF WARRANTY OR BREACH OF CONTRACT EXCEPT THOSE +PROVIDED IN PARAGRAPH 1.F.3. YOU AGREE THAT THE FOUNDATION, THE +TRADEMARK OWNER, AND ANY DISTRIBUTOR UNDER THIS AGREEMENT WILL NOT BE +LIABLE TO YOU FOR ACTUAL, DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL, PUNITIVE OR +INCIDENTAL DAMAGES EVEN IF YOU GIVE NOTICE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH +DAMAGE. + +1.F.3. LIMITED RIGHT OF REPLACEMENT OR REFUND - If you discover a +defect in this electronic work within 90 days of receiving it, you can +receive a refund of the money (if any) you paid for it by sending a +written explanation to the person you received the work from. If you +received the work on a physical medium, you must return the medium with +your written explanation. The person or entity that provided you with +the defective work may elect to provide a replacement copy in lieu of a +refund. If you received the work electronically, the person or entity +providing it to you may choose to give you a second opportunity to +receive the work electronically in lieu of a refund. If the second copy +is also defective, you may demand a refund in writing without further +opportunities to fix the problem. + +1.F.4. Except for the limited right of replacement or refund set forth +in paragraph 1.F.3, this work is provided to you 'AS-IS', WITH NO OTHER +WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO +WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTIBILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PURPOSE. + +1.F.5. Some states do not allow disclaimers of certain implied +warranties or the exclusion or limitation of certain types of damages. +If any disclaimer or limitation set forth in this agreement violates the +law of the state applicable to this agreement, the agreement shall be +interpreted to make the maximum disclaimer or limitation permitted by +the applicable state law. The invalidity or unenforceability of any +provision of this agreement shall not void the remaining provisions. + +1.F.6. INDEMNITY - You agree to indemnify and hold the Foundation, the +trademark owner, any agent or employee of the Foundation, anyone +providing copies of Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works in accordance +with this agreement, and any volunteers associated with the production, +promotion and distribution of Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works, +harmless from all liability, costs and expenses, including legal fees, +that arise directly or indirectly from any of the following which you do +or cause to occur: (a) distribution of this or any Project Gutenberg-tm +work, (b) alteration, modification, or additions or deletions to any +Project Gutenberg-tm work, and (c) any Defect you cause. + + +Section 2. Information about the Mission of Project Gutenberg-tm + +Project Gutenberg-tm is synonymous with the free distribution of +electronic works in formats readable by the widest variety of computers +including obsolete, old, middle-aged and new computers. It exists +because of the efforts of hundreds of volunteers and donations from +people in all walks of life. + +Volunteers and financial support to provide volunteers with the +assistance they need are critical to reaching Project Gutenberg-tm's +goals and ensuring that the Project Gutenberg-tm collection will +remain freely available for generations to come. In 2001, the Project +Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation was created to provide a secure +and permanent future for Project Gutenberg-tm and future generations. +To learn more about the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation +and how your efforts and donations can help, see Sections 3 and 4 +and the Foundation web page at http://www.gutenberg.org/fundraising/pglaf. + + +Section 3. Information about the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive +Foundation + +The Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation is a non profit +501(c)(3) educational corporation organized under the laws of the +state of Mississippi and granted tax exempt status by the Internal +Revenue Service. The Foundation's EIN or federal tax identification +number is 64-6221541. Contributions to the Project Gutenberg +Literary Archive Foundation are tax deductible to the full extent +permitted by U.S. federal laws and your state's laws. + +The Foundation's principal office is located at 4557 Melan Dr. S. +Fairbanks, AK, 99712., but its volunteers and employees are scattered +throughout numerous locations. Its business office is located at +809 North 1500 West, Salt Lake City, UT 84116, (801) 596-1887, email +business@pglaf.org. Email contact links and up to date contact +information can be found at the Foundation's web site and official +page at http://www.gutenberg.org/about/contact + +For additional contact information: + Dr. Gregory B. Newby + Chief Executive and Director + gbnewby@pglaf.org + +Section 4. Information about Donations to the Project Gutenberg +Literary Archive Foundation + +Project Gutenberg-tm depends upon and cannot survive without wide +spread public support and donations to carry out its mission of +increasing the number of public domain and licensed works that can be +freely distributed in machine readable form accessible by the widest +array of equipment including outdated equipment. Many small donations +($1 to $5,000) are particularly important to maintaining tax exempt +status with the IRS. + +The Foundation is committed to complying with the laws regulating +charities and charitable donations in all 50 states of the United +States. Compliance requirements are not uniform and it takes a +considerable effort, much paperwork and many fees to meet and keep up +with these requirements. We do not solicit donations in locations +where we have not received written confirmation of compliance. To +SEND DONATIONS or determine the status of compliance for any +particular state visit http://www.gutenberg.org/fundraising/donate + +While we cannot and do not solicit contributions from states where we +have not met the solicitation requirements, we know of no prohibition +against accepting unsolicited donations from donors in such states who +approach us with offers to donate. + +International donations are gratefully accepted, but we cannot make +any statements concerning tax treatment of donations received from +outside the United States. U.S. laws alone swamp our small staff. + +Please check the Project Gutenberg Web pages for current donation +methods and addresses. Donations are accepted in a number of other +ways including checks, online payments and credit card donations. +To donate, please visit: +http://www.gutenberg.org/fundraising/donate + + +Section 5. General Information About Project Gutenberg-tm electronic +works. + +Professor Michael S. Hart is the originator of the Project Gutenberg-tm +concept of a library of electronic works that could be freely shared +with anyone. For thirty years, he produced and distributed Project +Gutenberg-tm eBooks with only a loose network of volunteer support. + +Project Gutenberg-tm eBooks are often created from several printed +editions, all of which are confirmed as Public Domain in the U.S. +unless a copyright notice is included. Thus, we do not necessarily +keep eBooks in compliance with any particular paper edition. + +Most people start at our Web site which has the main PG search facility: + + http://www.gutenberg.org + +This Web site includes information about Project Gutenberg-tm, +including how to make donations to the Project Gutenberg Literary +Archive Foundation, how to help produce our new eBooks, and how to +subscribe to our email newsletter to hear about new eBooks. + diff --git a/34086-8.zip b/34086-8.zip Binary files differnew file mode 100644 index 0000000..2d5d7fe --- /dev/null +++ b/34086-8.zip diff --git a/34086-h.zip b/34086-h.zip Binary files differnew file mode 100644 index 0000000..d236a1f --- /dev/null +++ b/34086-h.zip diff --git a/34086-h/34086-h.htm b/34086-h/34086-h.htm new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8ec26de --- /dev/null +++ b/34086-h/34086-h.htm @@ -0,0 +1,5710 @@ +<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN" + "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-strict.dtd"> +<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"> +<head> +<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1" /> +<title>The Project Gutenberg eBook of The Ifs of History, by Joseph Edgar Chamberlin</title> + <style type="text/css"> + +body { + margin-left: 10%; + margin-right: 10%; +} + + h1,h2,h3,h4 { + text-align: center; /* all headings centered */ + clear: both; +} + +p { + margin-top: .75em; + text-align: justify; + margin-bottom: .75em; +} + +hr { + margin: 3em auto 3em auto; + height: 0px; + border-width: 1px 0 0 0; + border-style: solid; + border-color: #dcdcdc; + width: 500px; + clear: both; +} + +table { + margin-left: auto; + margin-right: auto; +} + +table.toc { + margin: auto; + width: 50%; + +} + +td.c1 { + text-align: right; + vertical-align: top; + padding-right: 1em; +} + +td.c2 { + text-align: left; + margin-left: 0em; + padding-left: 2em; + text-indent: -2em; + padding-right: 1em; + vertical-align: top; +} + +td.c3 { + text-align: right; + padding-left: 1em; + vertical-align: bottom; +} + + +td { padding: 0em 1em; } +th { padding: 0em 1em; } + + .pagenum { /* uncomment the next line for invisible page numbers */ + /* visibility: hidden; */ + position: absolute; + left: 92%; + font-size: smaller; + text-align: right; + color: #999; +} /* page numbers */ + + + .blockquote { + margin-left: 10%; + margin-right: 10%; +} + + .center {text-align: center;} + + .smcap {font-variant: small-caps;} + +/* Poetry */ + .poem { + margin-left: 10%; + margin-right: 10%; + text-align: left; +} + + .poem br { display: none; } + + .poem .stanza { margin: 1em 0em 1em 0em; } + + .poem span.i0 { + display: block; + margin-left: 0em; + padding-left: 3em; + text-indent: -3em; +} + + .signature { + text-align: right; + margin-right: 0%; +} + + hr.full { width: 100%; + margin-top: 3em; + margin-bottom: 0em; + margin-left: auto; + margin-right: auto; + height: 4px; + border-width: 4px 0 0 0; /* remove all borders except the top one */ + border-style: solid; + border-color: #000000; + clear: both; } + pre {font-size: 85%;} + </style> +</head> +<body> +<h1>The Project Gutenberg eBook, The Ifs of History, by Joseph Edgar Chamberlin</h1> +<pre> +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at <a href = "http://www.gutenberg.org">www.gutenberg.org</a></pre> +<p>Title: The Ifs of History</p> +<p>Author: Joseph Edgar Chamberlin</p> +<p>Release Date: October 16, 2010 [eBook #34086]</p> +<p>Language: English</p> +<p>Character set encoding: ISO-8859-1</p> +<p>***START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE IFS OF HISTORY***</p> +<p> </p> +<h4>E-text prepared by Malcolm Farmer, Julia12000,<br /> + and the Online Distributed Proofreading Team<br /> + (<a href="http://www.pgdp.net">http://www.pgdp.net</a>)<br /> + from page images generously made available by<br /> + Internet Archive/Canadian Libraries<br /> + (<a href="http://www.archive.org/details/toronto">http://www.archive.org/details/toronto</a>)</h4> +<p> </p> +<table border="0" style="background-color: #ccccff;margin: 0 auto;" cellpadding="10"> + <tr> + <td valign="top"> + Note: + </td> + <td> + Images of the original pages are available through + Internet Archive/Canadian Libraries. See + <a href="http://www.archive.org/details/ifsofhistory00chamuoft"> + http://www.archive.org/details/ifsofhistory00chamuoft</a> + </td> + </tr> +</table> +<p> </p> +<hr class="full" /> +<p> </p> +<p> </p> +<p> </p> +<h1> +THE<br /> +IFS OF HISTORY</h1> + +<h3>BY</h3> +<h2><span class="smcap">Joseph Edgar Chamberlin</span></h2> +<p> </p> +<p> </p> +<h3>PHILADELPHIA</h3> + +<h3>HENRY ALTEMUS COMPANY</h3> + + +<hr /> +<h4>Copyright, 1907,</h4> +<h4>by</h4> + +<h4><span class="smcap">Howard E. Altemus</span></h4> + +<hr /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_v" id="Page_v">[Pg v]</a></span></p> + + + +<h2>CONTENTS</h2> + + +<table class="toc" summary="Contents"> +<tr><td class="c1">I.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If Themistocles Had Not +Beaten<br />Aristides in an Athenian Election</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_13">13 +</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">II.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If the Moors Had Won the<br /> +Battle of Tours</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_21">21</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">III.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If King Ethelred of England<br /> +Had Not Married the Norman Emma</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_30">30</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">IV.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If Columbus Had Kept His<br /> +Straight Course Westward</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_37">37</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">V.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If Queen Elizabeth of England<br /> +Had Left a Son or Daughter</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_47">47</a></td></tr> + +<tr><td class="c1">VI.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If the Philarmonia Had Not<br /> +Given Concerts at Vicenza</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_56">56</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">VII.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If the Spanish Armada Had<br /> +Sailed at Its Appointed Time</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_64">64</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">VIII.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If Champlain Had Tarried in<br /> +Plymouth Bay</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_71">71</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">IX.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If Charles II Had Accepted the<br /> +Kingship of Virginia</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_79">79</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">X.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If Admiral Penn Had Persisted in<br /> +Disowning His Son William</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_91">91</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">XI.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If the Boy George Washington<br /> +Had Become a British Midshipman</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_99">99</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">XII.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If Alexander Hamilton Had Not<br /> +Written About the Hurricane</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_107">107</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">XIII.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If Lafayette Had Held the<br /> +French Reign of Terror in Check</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_114">114</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">XIV.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If Gilbert Livingston Had Not<br /> +Voted New York into the Union</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_121">121</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">XV.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If the Pirate Jean Lafitte Had<br /> +Joined the British at New Orleans</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_129">129</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">XVI.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If James Macdonnel Had Not<br /> +Closed the Gates of Hugomont Castle</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_138">138</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">XVII.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If Abraham Lincoln's Father Had<br /> +Moved Southward, Not Northward</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_150">150</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">XVIII.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If Skipper Jennings Had Not Rescued<br /> +Certain Shipwrecked Japanese</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_160">160</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">XIX.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If Orsini's Bomb Had Not Failed<br /> +to Destroy Napoleon III</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_170">170</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">XX.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If President James Buchanan Had<br /> +Enforced the Law in November, 1860</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_176">176</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">XXI.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If the Confederates Had Marched<br /> +on Washington After Bull Run</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_185">185</a></td></tr> +<tr><td class="c1">XXI.</td><td class="c2"><span class="smcap">If the Confederates States Had +Purchased<br />the East India Company's Fleet in 1861</span></td><td class="c3"><a href="#Page_194">194</a> +</td></tr> + +</table> + +<hr /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_vii" id="Page_vii">[Pg vii]</a></span></p> +<h2>PREFACE</h2> + + +<p>Whether or not we believe +that events are consciously +ordered before their occurrence, we +are compelled to admit the importance +of Contingency in human affairs.</p> + +<p>If we believe in such an orderly +and predetermined arrangement, the +small circumstance upon which a +great event may hinge becomes, in +our view, but the instrumentality by +means of which the great plan is +operated. It by no means sets aside +the vital influence of chance to assume +that "all chance is but direction +which we cannot see."</p> + +<p>For instance, the believer in special +providences regards as clearly providential<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_viii" id="Page_viii">[Pg viii]</a></span> +the flight of the flocks of +birds which diverted the course of +Columbus from our shores to those +of the West Indies; but it is none +the less true that this trivial circumstance +caused the great navigator to +turn his prow.</p> + +<p>Those who, on the other hand, reject +the idea of special providences, +and treat history as a sequence of +occurrences emerging mechanically +from the relations of men with one +another, must admit that causes forever +contend with causes, and that +the nice balance of action and reaction +may sometimes be influenced +radically by even so small a circumstance +as the cackling of the geese of +Rome. It is true that the evolutionist +is apt to become a believer in necessity +to an extent which appears unlikely to +the mind of the other. Events, in his +view, inhere in the nature and character +of men, these in their turn being +the result of the physical circumstances +that differentiate the nations.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_ix" id="Page_ix">[Pg ix]</a></span> +This view seems at first to reduce +the probability that accident will at +any time sensibly alter the course of +affairs.</p> + +<p>But if we take historical action +and reaction at their moments of +equilibrium, we see that the tide of +affairs may sometimes appear to follow +the drift of a feather. Consider, +for instance, the declaration of the +Duke of Wellington that the issue of +the battle of Waterloo turned upon +the closing of the gates of Hugomont +Castle by the hand of one man. Wellington +was certainly in a position to +know if this was true; and in the +light of the tremendous events that +depended upon the trifling act, does it +not appear that accident for one moment +outweighed in consequence any +necessity that inhered in the character +of the French people or that of +the nations arrayed against them at +Waterloo? It may be the function of +Contingency to correct the overconfidence +of the evolutionist.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_x" id="Page_x">[Pg x]</a></span>At all events, we cannot dismiss +the "if"; there is, as Touchstone +says, much virtue in it.</p> + + + +<div class="signature"><span class="smcap">J. E. C.</span></div> + + + + +<hr /> + + +<h2>THE IFS OF HISTORY</h2> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_13" id="Page_13">[Pg 13]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER I</h2> + +<h3>IF THEMISTOCLES HAD NOT BEATEN<br /> +ARISTIDES IN AN ATHENIAN<br /> +ELECTION</h3> + + +<p>Mithra instead of Jesus! The +western world Zoroastrian, +not Christian! The Persian Redeemer, +always called the Light of +the World in their scriptures; the +helper of Ahura-Mazda, the Almighty, +in his warfare with Ahriman, +or Satan; the intercessor for +men with the Creator; the Saviour +of humanity; he, Mithra, might have +been the central person of the dominant +religion of Europe and modern +times, but for certain developments +in Athenian politics in the years between<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_14" id="Page_14">[Pg 14]</a></span> +490 and 480 B. C. For it is true +that in the first three of four centuries +of the Christian era the western world +seemed to hesitate between the religion +of Mithra and that of Christ; +and if the Persians had completed +the conquest of Greece in the fifth +century B. C., Mithra might have so +strengthened his hold upon Europe +that the scale would have been turned +forever in his direction.</p> + +<p>What was it that enabled the +Greeks, in the crucial test, the ultimate +contingency, to turn back the +Persians and maintain their independence? +History says that it was +the result of the battles of Marathon +and Salamis, in which the Greeks +were triumphant over the Persians. +This is true only in a limited sense. +The battle of Marathon, in 490 B. C., +did not save Greece, for the Persians +came back again more powerful than +ever. At Thermopylæ, Leonidas and +his band died vainly, for the hosts +of Xerxes overran all Greece north<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_15" id="Page_15">[Pg 15]</a></span> +of the isthmus of Corinth. They +took Athens, and burned the temples +on the Acropolis. They were triumphant +on the land.</p> + +<p>But at Salamis, in the narrow +channel between the horseshoe-shaped +island and the Attican mainland, +Themistocles, on the 20th day of +September, 480 B. C., adroitly led +the great Persian fleet of six hundred +vessels into a trap and defeated it in +as heroic a fight as ever the men of +the West fought against the men of +the East. Seated on his "throne," +or rather his silver-footed chair, on +a hilltop overlooking the scene, Xerxes, +the master of the world, beheld +the destruction of his ships, one by +one, by the leagued Greeks. When +the battle was over he saw that the +escape of his victorious army from +the mainland was imperiled, and +while there was yet time, he led his +Persian horde in a wild flight across +his bridge of boats over the Hellespont. +The field of Platæa completed<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_16" id="Page_16">[Pg 16]</a></span> +the check, and the Persian invasions +of Europe were over forever.</p> + +<p>What was it that enabled Themistocles +to win this decisive victory for +Greece after disastrous defeats on +land? Simply his skill in the politics +of Athens. Themistocles was a Hellenic +imperialist. He was opposed by +Aristides, who was a very just man, +and an anti-imperialist and "mugwump." +Greece was at that time +terribly menaced by the Persian +power, and threatened with "Medization," +or absorption into the Persian +nationality. Themistocles saw +that the country's only chance lay in +a union of all the Hellenes, and in +the construction of a navy worth the +name. Aristides was a better orator +than he, and at first won against him +in the Athenian elections. The Greek +spirit was innately hostile to anything +like centralization or imperialism. +But when Ægina, which was +the leading Grecian maritime state, +and had some good ships, turned<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_17" id="Page_17">[Pg 17]</a></span> +against Athens and defeated it on +the sea, the Athenians' eyes began +to open. Themistocles pushed his +plan for the construction of a fleet +of two hundred vessels and the addition +of twenty new ships every +year to this navy.</p> + +<p>Squarely across his path stood Aristides, +with his ridicule of the attempt +of little Athens to become a maritime +power, and his warnings against militarism. +But Themistocles, by adroit +politics, led the Athenians to become +sick of Aristides, and persuaded them +to ostracize or banish this just man. +Aristides went to Ægina. Then Themistocles +rushed forward his plan of +naval reform, and carried it through. +The two hundred ships were built, +and not a moment too soon. It was +this fleet, brilliantly led by Themistocles +and Eurybiades at Salamis, +which entangled the Persians in the +narrow waters of Salamis and defeated +them, and saved Europe for +the Europeans.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_18" id="Page_18">[Pg 18]</a></span>The victory saved it also for Christ, +by keeping alive the worship of the +half-gods of Greece and Rome until +a whole-god came from Judæa. The +Persians, too, had a whole-god. Idea +for idea, principle for principle, +tenet for tenet, dream for dream, all +of later Judaism and all of medieval +Christianity, except the person and +story of Jesus, was in the religion of +Persia. Not only the central ideas of +formal Christianity, but many of its +dependent and related principles, are +found in Mithraism, which was the +translation of the fundamental philosophic +ideas of Zoroastrianism into +terms of human life. The parallel is +so striking that many thinkers regard +Christianity merely as Mithraism +bodied forth in a story invented +by, or at least told to and believed +by, a circle of primitive and uneducated +zealots who knew nothing of +the history of the doctrines they were +embracing.</p> + +<p>But notwithstanding the philosophic<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_19" id="Page_19">[Pg 19]</a></span> +likeness, the acceptance of +Mithraism as it was held and practiced +in Persia in Darius's time, instead +of Christianity, which may +have been Mithraism first Judaized +and afterward Romanized, would +have made a vast difference with +the western world. If Greece had +been Persianized before the rise of +Rome's power, Rome, too, would +have been Persianized. The influence +of Hebrew thought upon the +western world would have been +forestalled. Zoroastrian rites would +have prevailed. Over all would +have spread the mysticism of the +East.</p> + +<p>Our civilization might have risen +as high as it has ever gone, in art, +in the grace of life; but instead of +being inspired with the eager desire +of progress, by the restless Hellenic +necessity of doing something better +and higher, or at least something +other, something new—instead of this, +the spirit of peace and of satisfaction<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_20" id="Page_20">[Pg 20]</a></span> +with old ideals would have permeated +our systems and our life.</p> + +<p>Lord Mithra, too, would have been +primarily the sun, primarily an embodiment +of the light shining down +to us through the sky from that central +essence which alone can say, "I +am that I am," and not, as in the +Lord Christ, a humble, suffering, poor +and despised man lifted up into Godhead.</p> + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_21" id="Page_21">[Pg 21]</a></span></p> + +<h2>CHAPTER II</h2> + +<h3>IF THE MOORS HAD WON THE BATTLE<br /> +OF TOURS</h3> + + +<p>The most tremendous contingencies +in all history—the determination +of the fate of whole continents, +whole civilizations, by a single +incident—are sometimes the occurrences +that are most completely and +signally ignored by the ordinary citizen. +For instance, it does not occur +to the man on the street that but for +a turn in the tide of battle on a certain +October day in the year 732, on +a sunny field in northern-central +France, he, the man on the street, +would to-day be a devout Mussulman, +listening at evening for the muezzin's<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_22" id="Page_22">[Pg 22]</a></span> +call from a neighboring minaret, +abjuring pork and every alcoholic +beverage, and shunning stocks +and all kinds of speculation as prohibited +forms of gambling.</p> + +<p>Islamism would to-day, but for a +single hard-fought battle and its +issue, probably be the established +form of religion in all Europe. Even +England would have been unable to +resist the onset of the impetuous +Arabs, once they had established +themselves in triumph from the +Tagus to the Vistula; and the conversion +of all Europe would have carried +with it the Moslemizing of the +new world—supposing, indeed, that +America had up to this time been +discovered under Moorish auspices, +which is unlikely.</p> + +<p>Europe was certainly nearer to +conquest by the Moors in the eighth +century than most people suppose. +There are few finer or more heroic +episodes in history than the extraordinary +series of conquests by means<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_23" id="Page_23">[Pg 23]</a></span> +of which, a handful of fanatical Arabs, +inspired by the prophet Mohammed, +carried, with fire and sword, the faith +of Islam over the world, until, within +two hundred years of the date of the +prophet's birth, it reigned from the +shores of the Atlantic to the banks of +the Indus. Horde after horde of impetuous +warriors of the Crescent had +arisen. Their purpose, frankly, was +to convert the world, and convert it +by force. Cutting themselves off +from their bases of supply, and relying +upon an alliance of miracle and +rapine to sustain them, their triumphant +campaigns were one continuous +and colossal Sherman's march to +the sea.</p> + +<p>They struck Europe at the east, and +also by way of the west. Greek fire +checked them at the gates of Constantinople +in the east, but they overran +all northern Africa, crossed the +Straits of Gibraltar, and flowed like +a torrent over Spain and southern +France. By the year 731, as Gibbon<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_24" id="Page_24">[Pg 24]</a></span> +truly says, the whole south of France, +from the mouth of the Garonne to +that of the Rhone, had assumed the +manners and religion of Arabia.</p> + +<p>Abd-er-Rahman, the conqueror, +reigned supreme in southwestern +Europe. Spain and Portugal had +been annexed to Asia, and now the +turn of France had surely come.</p> + +<p>But at this crisis a heroic figure +arose in Europe—scarcely an elegant +figure, though a picturesque one. +The throne of the Franks had been +seized by an illegitimate son of old +King Pepin, a rough and heedless +fighter, whose rule pleased the people +better than did that of the priests +and women whom Pepin had left +behind him. This bloody-handed +usurper was named Charles, or Karl, +and he was destined afterward to be +called Martel, "the Hammer," on account +of the iron blows that he struck +upon all who faced him.</p> + +<p>Abd-er-Rahman, the victorious +Moor, advanced into northern France,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_25" id="Page_25">[Pg 25]</a></span> +overthrowing armies with ease, and +sacking cities, churches and convents +as he marched. Nothing could stay +him, as it appeared. He had planted +the standard of the prophet at the +gates of Tours, which is one hundred +and thirty miles, as the crow flies, +from Paris. But meantime the usurping +and base-born Charles, in command +of a small army mostly composed +of gigantic and well-seasoned +German warriors, was sneaking +along, like an Indian, under the +shelter of a range of hills, toward +the Saracen camp; and one day, to +Abd-er-Rahman's great surprise, +Charles fell upon him like a veritable +hammer of red-hot iron.</p> + +<p>Not in one moment, nor in one day, +was the issue decided. Six days the +armies fought, and through all Abd-er-Rahman +and his fanatical horde +held their own. But on the seventh +day Charles led a battalion of his +biggest, fiercest Germans straight +against the Moorish center. Abd-er-Rahman<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_26" id="Page_26">[Pg 26]</a></span> +himself was slain; his army, +appalled by this circumstance, was +broken and beaten, and faded away +toward the South.</p> + +<p>Charles Martel made sure his victory +by another successful campaign. +The Moors were driven out of France +forever. In their stead Charles himself +reigned. He had saved Europe +to Christianity. Yet for his lack of +docility, the church execrated him.</p> + +<p>If Abd-er-Rahman had overrun +France, as he would surely have done +if a less redoubtable and terrible antagonist +than Charles Martel had +faced him at Tours, he would next +have turned his attention to Germany. +With its fall, Italy and Rome +would have invited his attention. +There he would have found few but +priests to oppose him, and the empire +of the East, attacked in the rear as +well as in the front, would speedily +have succumbed. No Saint Cyril +would have gone forth to convert +the Russians and Bulgarians, who<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_27" id="Page_27">[Pg 27]</a></span> +would promptly have been Tartarized.</p> + +<p>As we have seen, nothing could +have saved England or Ireland. The +prophet's world-conquest must have +been accomplished.</p> + +<p>What then? Would the western +world have remained at the stage of +cultivation in which we see Arabia +to-day? There is no reason to suppose +that that would have been quite +the case. It was not so in Moorish +Spain, which rose to a high level of +culture. Christianity would not have +been suppressed. It was not suppressed +in Turkey or Spain. But it +would probably have been ruled, +dominated, forced into odd corners, +and to some extent Moslemized. +Learning would not have languished, +for in certain important forms it +flourished in Spain. The western +brain, the Aryan genius, must have +had its way in many intellectual respects. +Yet the cast of European +thought would surely have been<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_28" id="Page_28">[Pg 28]</a></span> +sicklied over with oriental contemplativeness.</p> + +<p>The "hustler" never could have +existed under Moslem rule. The +speculator never would have risen, +because he would not have been tolerated. +The Moslem doctrine forbids +censuses and statistics, treating them +as a form of wicked curiosity concerning +the rule of God on earth. +Pictorial art, and sculpture, which +the Koran regards as idolatrous, +would have been sternly repressed. +Literature would have been great +along the line of poetry; science +great along the line of mathematics.</p> + +<p>The western woman would have +been orientalized. So far from forming +clubs, she would not have been +permitted even to pray in the +mosques.</p> + +<p>America would have remained undiscovered +for centuries; and if at +last accident or search had laid it +bare, it would have followed the path +of Europe. The mellifluous tones of<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_29" id="Page_29">[Pg 29]</a></span> +the muezzin's cadence, "La ilah 'i il +'Allah," "There is no god but God," +would echo now where the shouts and +yells of the Wall Street speculators +reverberate. And the abode of the +mighty would have been a House of +Quiet, not the home of strenuousness.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_30" id="Page_30">[Pg 30]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER III</h2> + +<h3>IF KING ETHELRED OF ENGLAND HAD NOT<br /> +MARRIED THE NORMAN EMMA</h3> + + +<p>Not much turns upon the marriage +of kings in these days. +The German Kaiser is not the less +German assuredly because his mother +was an Englishwoman. Nor did her +marriage to the Crown Prince of +Prussia give Prussia or Germany the +slightest hold upon England.</p> + +<p>It was altogether different in an +earlier day. One royal marriage in +particular, that of King Ethelred the +Redeless, the "Unready," of England, +to Emma, the daughter of +Richard the Fearless, Duke of Normandy, +in the year 1002, exercised +upon Britain and the world the most<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_31" id="Page_31">[Pg 31]</a></span> +tremendous influence. It led to the +invasion and subjugation of England +by William, surnamed the Conqueror, +and to the reconstruction of that +mother country of ours, politically, +socially and racially, upon new lines. +No royal marriage, perhaps, ever had +such enduring and far-reaching consequences; +no queen-elect ever took +with her to her adopted country such +a lading of fateful changes.</p> + +<p>The marriage was a sufficiently +commonplace affair in itself. Ethelred +was a smooth and rather gentle +prince, who thought much more of +his own easy fortunes than of anything +else. He wanted a wife, and he +did not like the Danes, who were +racially and politically the nearest +neighbors of his royal house. He +visited Normandy, and must have +pleased the Duke, for Richard, a bold +and resourceful man, bestowed this +fair-haired Emma, a lineal descendant +of the victorious Norse pirates, but<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_32" id="Page_32">[Pg 32]</a></span> +now quite Frenchified, upon the young +Englishman.</p> + +<p>She was not destined to see her +progeny long reign over England. +But it did not matter about her descendants. +The great change did not +come with them. What she really did +was to supply to her nephew, Duke +William, known to history as the Conqueror, +who was yet to come to the +throne of Normandy, a pretext to +seize the English crown for himself.</p> + +<p>William was of illegitimate birth. +His mother was Arvela, a poor girl +whom Duke Robert saw washing +clothes in the river one day and +straightway became enamored of. +But on his father's side William was, +through Emma's marriage, cousin of +King Edward the Confessor, son of +the unready Ethelred. On a lucky +day for him he visited England. It +was at a time when Edward was very +ill, and William claimed ever after +that he had received from Edward, +on his sick bed, a solemn promise that<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_33" id="Page_33">[Pg 33]</a></span> +the Norman duke should succeed +him upon the English throne.</p> + +<p>Edward had no son, but it appears +quite unlikely that a wise ruler such +as he was should deliberately have +given away the throne and country +to a foreigner, especially when his +brother-in-law Harold, Earl of Wessex, +a capable man, stood ready to +succeed him. The English, at any +rate, took this view of the matter, for +they straightway made Harold king, +ignoring the claim of the vilely born +Duke William to the throne.</p> + +<p>But as the world knows, William +was able to make good his flimsy +claim. Whether Edward gave him +the crown or not, Stamford Bridge +and Hastings did give it him. When +at last, following the law of the time, +he presented himself to the suffrage +of the English nation, the representatives +of the beaten people had no +option but to elect him. He was a +part of the baggage that Queen +Emma brought with her.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_34" id="Page_34">[Pg 34]</a></span>What was the rest of it? For one +thing, union and consolidation, centralization. +England up to that time +had been but a broken congeries of +earldoms or tribal territories, and +would have gone on thus if it had +not at last found a master. In the +next place, William brought the touch +of France, of Rome, of the graceful +Latin world, to England. This son +of a hundred pirates passed on to +England the torch of a culture that +had been lighted in Greece and relumed +in Rome. It was not for nothing +that what had been ox meat with +the Saxons now became beef for the +English; what had been calves' flesh +became veal, and base swine flesh reappeared +as a more elegant dish +called pork. It meant something that +the rude language of Beowulf was to +be succeeded by the smoother lilt of +Chaucer—that, in short, the English +had a new and bookish tongue.</p> + +<p>It meant, in simple truth, the disappearance +of the old England and<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_35" id="Page_35">[Pg 35]</a></span> +the birth of a new and greater nation. +"It was in these years of subjection," +says Green, "that England +became really England." The Normans +degraded the bulk of the English +lords, but they made these displaced +nobles the nucleus of a new +middle class. At the same time their +protection led to the elevation into +the same middle class of a race of +cultivators who had been peasants. +Furthermore, the Norman rule expanded +villages into towns and cities, +and these in time began to stand, as +powerful boroughs, for the rights of +the people. The conquest, says Green, +"secured for England a new communion +with the artistic and intellectual +life of the world without her. +To it we owe not merely English +wealth and English freedom, but +England herself."</p> + +<p>Edward A. Freeman calls the Norman +conquest "the most important +event in English history since the +first coming of the English and their<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_36" id="Page_36">[Pg 36]</a></span> +conversion to Christianity." If the +succession of native kings had continued, +says the same authority, +"freedom might have died out step +by step, as it did in some other lands. +As it was, the main effect of the conquest +was to call out the ancient +English spirit in a new and antagonistic +shape, to give the English nation +new leaders in the conquerors +who were gradually changed into +countrymen, and by the union of the +men of both races, to win back the +substance of the old institutions +under new forms."</p> + +<p>In other words, the Norman Princess +Emma brought with her John +Bull as a part of her dowry, when +she came to weak Ethelred as his +bride.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_37" id="Page_37">[Pg 37]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER IV</h2> + +<h3>IF COLUMBUS HAD KEPT HIS STRAIGHT<br /> +COURSE WESTWARD</h3> + + +<p>On the morning of the 7th +day of October, 1492, Christopher +Columbus, sailing unknown +seas in quest of "Cipango," the Indies, +and the Grand Khan, still held +resolutely to a course which he had +laid out due to the westward. This +course he held in spite of the murmurings +of his crew, who wished to +turn back, and contrary to the advice +of that skilled and astute navigator, +Martin Alonzo Pinzon, who +commanded the <i>Pinta</i>. Pinzon had +repeatedly advised that the course +be altered to the southwestward.</p> + +<p>Columbus was sailing on a theory.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_38" id="Page_38">[Pg 38]</a></span> +Pinzon, like any other practical navigator +in a strange sea, was feeling his +way, and answering the indications +of the waters, the skies, the green +grasses that drifted on the surface +of the waves, the flocks of birds that +wheeled, and dipped, and showed +their heels to the far-wandered navigators, +and seemed to know their +way so well over that remote and +uncharted wilderness of the deep. +Columbus had said, "We will sail +to the west, and ever to the west, +until the west becomes the east." +Which to the men before the mast +was sheer lunacy. But Pinzon had +already found strange Afric lands. +The scent of their leaves and flowers +seemed to lie in his nostrils.</p> + +<p>Martin Alonzo Pinzon put off in a +boat, later on that 7th day of October, +and came back to the <i>Santa Maria</i>, +in which was the Admiral. He +brought the information that he had +seen "a great multitude of birds<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_39" id="Page_39">[Pg 39]</a></span> +passing from the north to the southwest; +from which cause he deemed +it reasonable to suppose that they +(the birds) were going to sleep on +land, or were perhaps flying from +winter which must be approaching +in the countries from which they +came." The Admiral knew it was +by the aid of the flight of birds that +the Portuguese had discovered the +greater part of the new lands which +they had found. Columbus hesitated, +wavered.</p> + +<p>Had the heart of the great theorist, +sailing obstinately straight west in +obedience to the call of the land +whose presence there he had reasoned +out, misgiven him at last? Had the +discouragement and incredulity of +his men affected him? We do not +know. But we do know that finally +he heeded Pinzon's oft-repeated demand +that the course be altered.</p> + +<p>It looked like common sense to follow +the birds. Really it was not. +The theory was his true guide.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_40" id="Page_40">[Pg 40]</a></span> +Columbus betrayed his faith; he resolved, +as his journal recorded, "to +turn his prow to the west-southwest, +with the determination of pursuing +that course <i>for two days</i>." He never +resumed the westward course. He +had weakened in his devotion to his +own idea—and had lost a continent +for Spain and the Roman Catholic +Church.</p> + +<p>For in spite of the conclusion +reached by John Boyd Thacher, in +his monumental work on Columbus, +that even if the Admiral had held the +westward course his fleet would not +have passed the northernmost tip of +the Bahamas, there is sufficient +ground for the generally accepted +conclusion that his landfall in that +case would have been on the coast +of Florida or South Carolina, or even +North Carolina. After the alteration +of his course, Columbus continued to +sail for four days in a general southwesterly +direction, before, on the 12th +of October, he fell upon Watling's<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_41" id="Page_41">[Pg 41]</a></span> +Island. In that time he had sailed, +according to his own reckoning, one +hundred and forty-one leagues. This +distance, if persisted in due to +the westward, would have brought +him in contact with drift and real +bird-flight indications of the continent.</p> + +<p>Let us see toward what point his +course had been laid. Setting sail +from Gomera, in the Canary Islands, +Columbus purposed to go straight +to the west until he reached land. +Gomera lies in about the latitude of +Cape Canaveral, or the Indian River, +Florida. A line drawn from Gomera +to Cape Canaveral passes to the northward +of the Bahamas altogether. No +land lay in the Admiral's path to +Florida.</p> + +<p>But any supposition that Columbus +would not have gone to the +northward of the Indian River ignores +the northward drift that the +Gulf Stream would have caused his +ships. He had yet, of course, to<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_42" id="Page_42">[Pg 42]</a></span> +reach the axis of that powerful current, +which is here comparatively +narrow, and runs very swiftly at the +point where the due westward course +from Gomera would have struck it. +It is a fair chance that this drift +would have carried Columbus so far +north as to land him in the neighborhood +of what is now Charleston, S. C., +or even further to the northward, if +he had followed the path he had laid +out for himself.</p> + +<p>Amazing the consequences that +hung upon the flight of those "multitudes +of birds" that wheeled Bahama-ward +on that October day! The Admiral's +landfall on the coast even of +Florida would have made all temperate +America Spanish, for it would +have focused the might of Ferdinand +and Isabella upon our shores. We +know that the islands which lay immediately +to the southward of his +"Salvador," in the Bahamas, beckoned +Columbus in that direction, and +that the Indians were able by signs<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_43" id="Page_43">[Pg 43]</a></span> +to make it clear to him that a greater +land, which was Cuba, and which he +called "Cipango," lay in this southerly +direction. That way he laid his +course, "in order," as he wrote in +his journal, "to go to this other +island which is very large and where +all these men whom I am bringing +from the island of San Salvador make +signs that there is a great deal of +gold and that they wear bracelets of +it on their arms and legs and in their +ears and in their noses and on their +breasts."</p> + +<p>Reason enough! Only it meant +that Spain's energy in this hemisphere +was to be directed to the West +Indies, and South America, and +Mexico, for as long a time as it was +destined to endure, and that the vast +continental North was to be left as +the heritage of another race.</p> + +<p>It is true that Florida afterward +became Spanish. But it was not a +question of what Florida, merely, was +to be. If Columbus had landed upon<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_44" id="Page_44">[Pg 44]</a></span> +the mainland, the northeastward +trend of the coast, reaching back +toward Spain by just so much, would +have beckoned him northward, not +southward. Even if he had explored +southwardly, by some chance, he +must have returned northward when +he had reached the point of the +Florida peninsula; and in the northerly +direction he would have cruised, +returning Europe-ward. And he +would have annexed the land step by +step, as he annexed Cuba, Hispaniola, +and all the southern lands as fast as +he touched them.</p> + +<p>The Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland, +would have been the scenes of the +Spaniards' settlement for a hundred +years. Though afterward they took +Florida, that was as a mere side issue; +it was unconsidered, neglected, after +Cuba and Mexico; and was passed +on at length to the race that came to +the mainland more than a hundred +years after the landfall at San Salvador.</p> + +<p>Who can estimate the consequences<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_45" id="Page_45">[Pg 45]</a></span> +of a fate which should have sent +Columbus straight on his way! Who +can compass the thought of the millions +of country-loving Americans of +our race unborn here, but nurtured +under skies now foreign to their very +nature, but for that glittering flock +of tropical birds whirling southwestwardly? +It is no idle conjecture; +von Humboldt, one of the wisest of +cosmographers, says that never in +the world's history had the flight of +birds such momentous consequences. +"It may be said," he avers, "to have +determined the first settlements in +the new continent, and its distribution +between the Latin and Germanic +races." He believed that the Gulf +Stream would have carried Columbus +around Cape Hatteras. It might +indeed have done so.</p> + +<p>We of the United States may well +believe that the hand of Providence +guided those birds on that October +day; but none the less are we compelled<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_46" id="Page_46">[Pg 46]</a></span> +to admit the strange dependence +of human events upon circumstances +that are most trifling in themselves.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_47" id="Page_47">[Pg 47]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER V</h2> + +<h3>IF QUEEN ELIZABETH HAD LEFT A SON<br /> +OR DAUGHTER</h3> + + +<p>Never did greater events hinge +upon a woman's caprice +against marriage than those which +were poised on the will of Elizabeth, +Queen of England, in the long years +that lay between the time when, as +a young queen, it was proposed to +marry her to the Duke of Anjou, and +the sere and yellow leaf of her +womanhood, when her potential maternity +was past.</p> + +<p>If Elizabeth had married, as her +people often implored her to do, and +if her progeny had sat upon the +throne and continued the sway of the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_48" id="Page_48">[Pg 48]</a></span> +Tudors, half a century of turmoil and +bloodshed, under the essentially foreign +rule of the Stuarts, might have +been spared to England. The Revolution +doubtless would never have taken +place. The material and intellectual +advance of England and all Britain +would have been steady and sure +upon the splendid foundation of the +Elizabethan structure.</p> + +<p>But, on the other hand, as good is +often evolved from evil, much that is +sacred and vital to the whole Anglo-Saxon +race might have been missed. +The Bill of Rights, the Habeas Corpus +Act and other guarantees that +were obtained through the Revolution +or the Commonwealth would have +been wanting in the English Constitution. +Oliver Cromwell and John +Hampden would probably have remained +in rustic obscurity. All modern +Europe would have lacked the +political incentive, the revolutionary +impulse, the constructive audacity, +which it has derived from the Grand<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_49" id="Page_49">[Pg 49]</a></span> +Remonstrance, from the battlefields +of Marston Moor and Naseby, where +royalty was overthrown by the arm +of the common people, and from the +eternal menace that lay in the death-block +of King Charles.</p> + +<p>It was not because of any aversion +to the society of men that Elizabeth +remained unmarried. Very far from +this; it is likely that her extreme +liking for male society cut a considerable +figure in her refusal. She did +not propose to give any man a public +right to interfere with her liberty of +choice in this regard. History agrees +that there was a sting of truth in the +words of Mary, Queen of Scots, in a +letter which she once sent to Elizabeth: +"Your aversion to marriage +proceeds from your not wishing to +lose the liberty of compelling people +to make love to you." The queen +was fickle and passionate. She had +little fear of the royal Mrs. Grundy. +At the tender age of sixteen scandal +linked her name with that of the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_50" id="Page_50">[Pg 50]</a></span> +Lord Admiral Seymour in such a way +that an investigation by the council +was necessary. She baffled the lawyers +in the examination by her "very +good wit."</p> + +<p>From the time of her accession, at +the age of twenty-five, to the time of +her death, Elizabeth was certainly +never without a favorite. She had +small conscience, and there can be +little doubt that she required the assassination +of poor Amy Robsart in +order that her favorite, Dudley, might +be free from his young wife; and +when, after the age of sixty, her +young cavalier of that time, the fascinating +Essex, wearying of dancing +attendance upon her at court, joined +the expedition of Drake against Portugal, +the Queen bade him return instantly +at his "uttermost peril." In +the end she signed the unhappy +Essex's death warrant for an alleged +rebellion against her.</p> + +<p>But her motive in refusing matrimony +was not altogether—perhaps<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_51" id="Page_51">[Pg 51]</a></span> +not even chiefly—one of coquetry. +She was avid of power, and could +brook no rival in its exercise. It is +probable that considerations of real +patriotism restrained her from marrying +a continental prince. She +shrank from introducing foreign influence +as instinctively as Americans +have at all times. She shrank from +bowing to any yoke of Europe. But +there were also objections to her marrying +an Englishman. If she had +chosen one she would have aroused +the jealousy of all Englishmen not of +his party or following. She regarded +it as the better policy to keep them all +hoping.</p> + +<p>The unmarried state suited her arrogant +and domineering nature well. +She had none of the docility which +made Queen Victoria a model house-wife +and mother, and also a model +constitutional sovereign. It was her +purpose to have undivided power or +none. To the deputation of the House +of Commons which visited her with<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_52" id="Page_52">[Pg 52]</a></span> +a petition that she marry, she answered: +"For me it shall be sufficient +that a marble stone declare that a +queen, having reigned such a time, +lived and died a virgin."</p> + +<p>The Commons who uttered the petition +must have felt a premonition of +what would actually take place if +there were no heir of Elizabeth's +body. The next heir to the throne +was Mary, Queen of Scots. She was +a zealous Catholic, and England had +just fully established its religious independence. +It is true that Mary's +son and heir, James, who afterward +became King of England, as well as +of Scotland, was a Protestant, but +the loyalty of the adhesion of his +house to the new confession might +well have been distrusted. There +was no promise of happiness for +England in the accession of a prince +or princess of this house to its +throne.</p> + +<p>But the Stuarts came—and the +troubles of England began in real<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_53" id="Page_53">[Pg 53]</a></span> +earnest. Elizabeth's reign had been, +as it then seemed to all Englishmen, +and as in very many respects it was, +the golden age of Britain. Never had +art, and literature, and material prosperity, +risen to so high a level. The +world seemed opening to a new and +glorious life, like a rose bursting into +bloom. In literature it had been the +age of Shakespeare and Bacon. But +with the Stuarts, literature and art +passed into a long eclipse. Shakespeare's +light may be said to have +gone out for a hundred years, to be +lighted again only from the borrowed +torch of German culture.</p> + +<p>Let us suppose that Elizabeth had +been able to find a consort as wise +and as harmless as was Prince Albert, +the husband of Queen Victoria. +Let us suppose that the pair had left +behind them a thoroughly English +prince, their own son, a man who +would have been capable of continuing +Elizabeth's prudent rule and of +holding England to its traditions<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_54" id="Page_54">[Pg 54]</a></span> +while maintaining the extraordinary +advance that had marked her splendid +reign. Without James's mingled +poltroonery and tyranny to nurse and +stimulate it, it is doubtful if Puritanism +would have had its spasm of ascendency. +English history would +have been spared an epoch of chaos, +of wild experimentation, of political +empirics.</p> + +<p>At the same time it would have +been deprived of a form of political +genius which was hammered out of +the fire of rebellion. English Whiggism, +English liberalism, English +nonconformity have made the world +over anew. America, in particular, +would have been infinitely poorer +without the Puritan ferment. Should +we have had the New England migration +at all, if England had continued +its calm and homogeneous development +under Elizabethan influences? +Would not rather all America have +been like Virginia, and the new world +organized on a roast-beef, plum-pudding<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_55" id="Page_55">[Pg 55]</a></span> +and distinctly Anglican and +conformist basis?</p> + +<p>If we can imagine Massachusetts +a purely Episcopal colony to-day, +ruled by parochial vestries instead of +by town-meeting-parliaments and the +village Gladstone and his responsible +cabinet in every hamlet, and the +whole province presided over by some +self-sufficient Sir Alexander Swettenham +as the representative of British +royalty, we may perhaps imagine +England without the cataclysm of the +Stuarts.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_56" id="Page_56">[Pg 56]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER VI</h2> + +<h3>IF THE PHILARMONIA HAD NOT GIVEN<br /> +CONCERTS AT VICENZA</h3> + + +<p>For the sake of variety, perhaps +of diversion, in the midst of +more serious speculations, let us have +an "if" of musical history—and one +which, no doubt, musicians may regard +as purely fanciful, totally absurd. +It should be stated at the start +that this chapter is written by one +who has no knowledge of music, but +is capable of a very keen enjoyment +of it, and has in his time heard much +professional music—many concerts, +operas and oratorios—and also much +of the spontaneous untrained music +of the people, including old New England +ballads now forgotten; the songs<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_57" id="Page_57">[Pg 57]</a></span> +of German peasants at the fireside +and spinning wheel; the native corn +songs, "wails" and "shouts" of +Southern negroes on the plantations; +and the medicine songs, scalp songs, +ceremonial chants and love ditties of +the American Indians.</p> + +<p>The contingency which will be presented +here is this: If a certain group +of unprofessional singers and musicians +in the highly cultivated Italian +town of Vicenza, about midway of +the sixteenth century, had not banded +themselves together in a society called +the Philarmonia, and for the first time +in Europe given musical entertainments +to which the public were admitted, +the musical institution called +the concert might never have existed, +and music in that case would have +remained a spontaneous expression +of human emotion, untainted with +what is now called virtuosity—that +is, the strife and strain after technical +mastery, which affects the whole<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_58" id="Page_58">[Pg 58]</a></span> +character of music, and diverts it +from its original purpose of pleasing +the sense and comforting the heart.</p> + +<p>Expert professional music was a +thing of very slow growth. The old +chapelmasters or choirmasters were, +of course, in a sense professional, +since they lived upon the church. +But they had also a sacerdotal character. +At the beginning they were +always priests. To make a class of +professional musicians, vying with +one another for mere mastery, the +public concert, with paid musicians, +had to be developed.</p> + +<p>Though the Philarmonia gave public +concerts at Vicenza, as we have +said, in the middle of the sixteenth +century, concert music and opera +music had no general existence for +as much as a century afterward. +The first opera ever represented was +Peri's "Eurydice," written about +1600. Even that was merely the expression +of a group of enthusiasts, a +sort of private attempt to embody a<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_59" id="Page_59">[Pg 59]</a></span> +theory of their own about what music +should be. It was not until the year +1672 that the first concert, with a +price for admission, was given in +London. The price then charged was +a shilling, and the concert was in a +private house.</p> + +<p>By that time the start had been +made. Other concerts were given +soon afterward. They became popular. +There was a demand for skilled +musicians and soloists. Performers +began practicing for the sake of excelling +in technical achievement. By +swift and sudden steps a premium +was put upon mechanical perfection +in the handling of instruments. The +old spontaneous methods of expression +gradually became discredited.</p> + +<p>As a consequence of the new development, +two sorts of music grew +up in the world. On the one side +stood concert music, professional +music, virtuoso music. This was difficult +and complicated, and it was impossible +for ordinary people to sing<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_60" id="Page_60">[Pg 60]</a></span> +it or play it. On the other side was +the popular music—folk music, the +music of the street, the nursery, the +stable-shed and the taproom. As +popular music was regularly deserted +now for the concert school by those +who possessed the greatest musical +talent, it began to degenerate until it +reached at last the degradation of +"Grandfather's Clock," "Ta-ra-ra-boom-de-ay," +"Waiting at the +Church" and the graphophone.</p> + +<p>On the other hand, concert music +moved farther and farther away from +the hearts and the comprehension of +the people, until it has become a +thing apart from their lives, to be +enjoyed almost as much with the eye +as with the ear, the interest lying +chiefly in the production, in succession, +of individual masters, each of +whom visibly surpasses the mechanical +achievements of his immediate +predecessor.</p> + +<p>If those first concerts had not been +given by the Philarmonia at Vicenza,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_61" id="Page_61">[Pg 61]</a></span> +and the idea had not slowly rippled +outward thence, like spreading circles +from a stone thrown into the +water, until it reached Vienna, Paris +and London, what would have been +the state of music to-day?</p> + +<p>Manifestly the development of +church music would have gone on. +The people, no doubt, would have +been taking part in magnificent +chorals. The masses of the Catholic +Church would have their correspondent +feature in the anthems and hymns +sung in the Protestant churches by the +congregations. Every instrument that +existed in the sixteenth century would +have been perfected, but not one +would have taken on the intricate development +which musical mechanism +exacts.</p> + +<p>In other words, the harpsichord +would never have become a piano, +and the electrical church organ would +not have been heard of. We should +all play some such instrument as the +harp, the violin, the viol, the flute,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_62" id="Page_62">[Pg 62]</a></span> +the pipe or the dulcimer. All might +have been composers, as the negroes +and Indians are to-day, but on a +higher plane.</p> + +<p>What popular music might be now +but for that unlucky Philarmonia discovery +is suggested by an extract +from the writings of Thomas Morley, +an Englishman who became a great +amateur and introducer of Italian +madrigals in his own country. In +the year 1597 he wrote that, on a +certain evening, in England,—</p> + +<div class="blockquote"> +<p>supper being ended, and musicke-bookes, according +to the custome, being brought to the table, the +mistresse of the house presented mee with a part, +earnestly requesting mee to sing. But when, after +manie excuses, I protested unfainedly that I could +not, euerie one began to wonder. Yea, some +whispered unto others, demanding how I was +brought up. So that, upon shame of mine ignorance, +I go now to seek out mine old friende master +Gnorimus, to make myselfe his schollar.</p> +</div> + +<p>In those days a person who could +not sing, and sing well, was regarded +as a freak, and was required to fit +himself to join in the universal diversion.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_63" id="Page_63">[Pg 63]</a></span> +If we had not turned over +our music making to professionals it +would be so now. Instead of going +to the concert or the opera after the +evening meal, or playing bridge or +talking scandal, people would have +participated in the singing of madrigals, +glees or whatever other sort of +popular spontaneous music had been +developed, and all would have been +sustained and uplifted by the exalted +joy that comes from joining with +others in the production of good +music.</p> + +<p>The people would have been joyously +and heartily musical. Their +taste would not have been degraded +to the point where it is gratified, as +in the graphophone, with a complicated +succession of flat and strident +sounds unmusical in themselves.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_64" id="Page_64">[Pg 64]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER VII</h2> + +<h3>IF THE SPANISH ARMADA HAD SAILED<br /> +AT ITS APPOINTED TIME</h3> + + +<p>When Philip the Second, son of +the great emperor Charles +V, came to the throne of Spain, that +country had become the greatest cosmopolitan +empire in the world. The +throne of Castile, at one time or another +during Philip's reign, was the +throne not only of Spain and Portugal, +but of the Netherlands and Burgundy, +the Sicilies, Sardinia, Milan, +Cuba, Hispaniola, Florida, Mexico, +California, nearly all of South +America, and the Philippine Islands. +The Spanish monarch was the eldest +son of the church; and Philip, strong, +ambitious, bigoted and insolent, expected,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_65" id="Page_65">[Pg 65]</a></span> +as he laid the foundations of +his glorious palace, the Escorial, the +eighth wonder of the world, to become +master of France and Britain, +and to bequeath to his son the vastest +empire that the sun had ever shone +upon.</p> + +<p>By his marriage with Queen Mary +he acquired the nominal title of king +of England, though he was never +crowned. But his grudge rose +against England after Mary's death +and Elizabeth's accession. The +country proved itself a thorn in his +side, helping the Dutch rebels and +undoing at home the persecuting +work of his late spouse. Philip +formed a great project for the invasion +of the country.</p> + +<p>Spain was supreme then on the sea. +The English navy had greatly declined. +In 1575 it had but twenty-four +vessels of all classes on the water. +Philip knew the cleverness of the English +with their ships, however, and in<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_66" id="Page_66">[Pg 66]</a></span> +planning this invasion he proposed to +be invincible. Invincible he sought to +make the Armada, or fleet, that he +sent against the country, and invincible +not only he, but all Europe, believed +it to be, when, in January of +the year 1588, the great flotilla was +ready to sail.</p> + +<p>It consisted of about one hundred +and thirty ships, of which sixty-two +were over three hundred tons burden. +It was commanded by a brave and +skillful sea fighter, Santa Cruz. The +English had bettered their conditions +of seven years before very greatly, but +they were at this moment absolutely +unprepared to meet a foreign fleet. +Their ships were scattered far and +wide, and many were unequipped. +If the Armada had sailed at that moment +it would have found no force +ready to meet it. And it would have +escaped the storms that later befell.</p> + +<p>But <i>mañana</i> is the curse of all +Spain's projects. The Armada lingered. +Santa Cruz, its chief, sickened<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_67" id="Page_67">[Pg 67]</a></span> +in port and died. Very likely if he +had sailed no such fate would have +overtaken him. This was the first of +the big fleet's misfortunes. Philip +looked about for another commander. +By a fatuous favoritism his choice +fell upon the Duke of Medina Sidonia, +who was utterly incompetent.</p> + +<p>The months flew past. Meantime +the English, fully apprised of the +king's intentions, were getting a +fleet together. In those days it was +not necessary to wait five years for a +battleship to be constructed. Almost +any big ship could be turned into a +fighting craft. In particular, the +English were well off in guns, and +the delay of the Armada gave them a +chance to get their artillery on board.</p> + +<p>When—<i>nombre de Dios!</i>—does the +reader suppose that this invincible +fleet, ready in January, really set sail +from Coruña? On the 12th day of +July! It had already been scattered +and weakened by a storm off Lisbon. +On the 21st of July Medina Sidonia<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_68" id="Page_68">[Pg 68]</a></span> +sailed into Drake's and Hawkins's +"line ahead" formation in the English +channel as Rojestvensky sailed +into Togo's lair off Tsu-Shima in +1905, and the result to him somewhat +resembled the subsequent fate of the +Russian fleet in the Sea of Japan. It +was not, however, so bad. If Medina +Sidonia had gone, with his surviving +ships, after the first onset, to Denmark, +and refitted, he might yet have +embarrassed the British. But he +sought to make the passage around +the north of Scotland, and a succession +of storms wrecked his whole remaining +fleet.</p> + +<p>All authorities agree that in January, +1588, no English force existed +which could have hoped to check +Santa Cruz as things then stood. +What if he had come on and landed +an army of trained veterans upon +England's undefended shores? He +must have won. Queen Elizabeth +must have been overthrown. Ireland +would have gladly joined Philip.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_69" id="Page_69">[Pg 69]</a></span> +England was almost half Catholic, +and the people of that faith might +eventually have become reconciled to +the foreigner. Philip might have +made himself another Norman William. +The Spanish culture would +have been imposed upon the English +nation. But unlike William of Normandy, +who transferred his power to +Britain, Philip would have remained +a Spanish sovereign, and London +would have been ruled from Madrid.</p> + +<p>Philip would never have temporized +with English Protestantism. +The chances are that he would have +stamped it out utterly and at the +start, as he sought, too late, to do in +the Netherlands. If he might have +worked his will, he would also have +suppressed English learning and literature. +William Shakespeare, who +had just come up to London, had +never produced a play when the Armada +sailed, and probably he never +would have produced one if it had +conquered. The glorious Elizabethan<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_70" id="Page_70">[Pg 70]</a></span> +culture would have been nipped in the +bud.</p> + +<p>All Britain's possessions in the new +world, already existent or to be, +would have fallen to Spain or France +if Philip had overthrown Elizabeth—doubtless +to Spain, for Philip's ambition +to seize the French throne would +have been furthered by his conquest +of England. Spanish viceroys would +have borne sway for centuries over +all North America. A hybrid Indian-Latin +race would have arisen here, as +in Mexico and Peru. Lacking the inspiration +of North American freedom, +all Spanish America to the +southward would have remained to +this day under the dons.</p> + +<p>Castilian speech, Castilian cultivation, +Castilian manners, the Castilian +faith, might have reigned supreme +over a dusky race from the St. Lawrence +to the Straits of Magellan.</p> + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_71" id="Page_71">[Pg 71]</a></span></p> + +<h2>CHAPTER VIII</h2> + +<h3>IF CHAMPLAIN HAD TARRIED IN<br /> +PLYMOUTH BAY</h3> + + +<p>On the 18th of July, in the year +1605, Samuel de Champlain, +in command of a ship of the King of +France, and engaged in the search +for an eligible site for a great settlement, +anchored in the harbor which +was afterward to be known as the +harbor of Plymouth, in New England. +Two days before, he had been +in Boston Bay. He mapped both +these havens, and expressed his approval +of the physical resources, and +also the native Indian peoples, of the +region.</p> + +<p>At that time the coast of New<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_72" id="Page_72">[Pg 72]</a></span> +England was really unappropriated, +though soon after it was claimed by +both France and England. It was +merely a question which power should +first seriously undertake the settlement +of the country. If France +planted her colony here, the land was +destined to be French. If England +hers, it would be English.</p> + +<p>Champlain carefully studied the +advantages of Boston and Plymouth. +That he thought favorably of the latter +place is proved by the very decent +map, still extant, which he made +of Plymouth and Duxbury waters. +"Port St. Louis," he called the place, +after the patron saint of France, and +after his royal master. It looked +very much as if he hoped that the +spot he so honored would be made +the seat of the French empire in the +western world.</p> + +<p>But Champlain sailed away, bearing +with him the blessing of the +thickly settled and sedentary native +people. He passed around Cape Cod,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_73" id="Page_73">[Pg 73]</a></span> +and went westward as far as Nauset +harbor, near New Bedford. And +then, in due time, he sailed for +France. When, in 1608, he finally +laid the foundations of the city which +was to be the capital of France in +the new world, he did not lay them +at Plymouth or Boston, but at Quebec, +on the St. Lawrence.</p> + +<p>Why was his choice thus made? +Largely, no doubt, because Champlain, +whose accurate information +and seemingly always wise observation +were greatly trusted by the King +of France, was infatuated with the +noble aspect and vast proportions of +the gulf and river of St. Lawrence. +He was first of all a sailor, and he +had seen nothing to compare with the +magnificence of this great <i>embouchure</i>. +Here were scope and refuge +for the greatest of navies! Here, it +seemed, was a place designed by the +Almighty to be the seat of an empire!</p> + +<p>Champlain had an excellent eye +for harbors, but not so good an eye<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_74" id="Page_74">[Pg 74]</a></span> +of prophecy for the grand constructive +events that were to be. He left +the Massachusetts coast unappropriated. +First its native inhabitants, so +numerous, so gentle, so industrious, +were decimated by a plague that came +to them from the white men. Only +a remnant survived. And when, in +1620, their sachem, Samoset, shouted +"Welcome, Englishmen!" to the men +of the Mayflower, the Indian king +hailed, unconsciously, the advent of +an empire which was to cast the domain +of New France into a cold and +waning shadow. For Quebec was too +far north, and its hinterland too poor +and restricted, ever to nurse an imperial +race.</p> + +<p>What if Champlain had been more +sagacious, and had made his stand on +the coast of Massachusetts? In all +probability the settlement would have +been definitive. The Pilgrims of +Plymouth and the Puritans of Boston, +finding no place for their settlement +in the north, would, in 1620,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_75" id="Page_75">[Pg 75]</a></span> +have gone to Virginia or Georgia. +The steely Yankee wedge which, on +one side, was to force the Dutch out +of New Amsterdam, and on the other +the French out of Port Royal and +Acadia, would never have been +driven. New England would have +been French forever, and New York +Dutch.</p> + +<p>The principle of the hinterland was +asserted so successfully in our early +history that Massachusetts and Connecticut +were able to claim territory +as far west as the Mississippi River. +It was by means of this hinterland +claim that the young American republic +succeeded in rounding out its +northwestern possessions, after the +War of the Revolution, and obtaining +Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin +and Illinois. All these would have +been French if Champlain had made +New England French; and the English +colonies, if they had ever become +strong enough to throw off the +British yoke, would have consisted<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_76" id="Page_76">[Pg 76]</a></span> +of a restricted section in the Southeast.</p> + +<p>Indeed, without Sam Adams, Otis, +Warren, and Israel Putnam, without +the revolt against the Stamp Act, and +without Lexington, Concord and +Bunker Hill, it is impossible to conceive +of the American republic at all.</p> + +<p>Supposing it to have been constituted +notwithstanding, it would +have had to do without the influence +of the New England town meeting, +the New England common free school, +the New England college, and the +congregational system of church organization. +It would have been deprived +of the work of Franklin, Hancock, +the Adamses, Webster, Sumner, +Garrison, Phillips, Grant and the +Shermans, in its affairs, and of Longfellow, +Emerson, Holmes, Lowell, +Whittier, Hawthorne and Parkman +in its intellectual life.</p> + +<p>What would the New England +country and the people have been +like, if Champlain had never turned<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_77" id="Page_77">[Pg 77]</a></span> +back from Plymouth Bay? We know +from Benjamin Franklin's account +what the progeny of the English settlers +had become even as long ago as +1772. "I thought often," he wrote +in that year, "of the happiness of +New England, where every man is a +freeholder, has a vote in public affairs, +lives in a tidy, warm house, +has plenty of good food and fuel, +with whole clothes from head to foot, +the manufacture perhaps of his own +family. Long may they continue in +this situation!" What the Canadian +habitant is to-day, we know. Very +often he is unable to read or write, +and his material and moral condition +very low. Even as late as 1837 the +Canadian provinces were still arbitrarily +ruled by royal governors, with +appointed councils or upper houses +which had a veto on all legislation. +There was no self-rule, and the mass +of the French people were illiterate +and miserably poor.</p> + +<p>Sieur Samuel de Champlain did a<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_78" id="Page_78">[Pg 78]</a></span> +good day's work for English-speaking +America, and the great free republic +that was to be, when he pointed +his prow northward and sailed away, +out of sight of Cape Cod, in the summer +of 1605.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_79" id="Page_79">[Pg 79]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER IX</h2> + +<h3>IF CHARLES II HAD ACCEPTED THE<br /> +KINGSHIP OF VIRGINIA</h3> + + +<p>Once at least the New World +has furnished to the Old +World a reigning, actual king; once, +for thirteen years, a monarch, sitting +on a throne in America, ruled thence +an ancient kingdom in Europe. And +twice this singular thing might have +happened, with this time an enthroned +sovereign on the banks of +the James instead of on the shore +of a Brazilian bay, if a certain king's +son and king-to-be had been of a +somewhat more venturing and less +indolent disposition.</p> + +<p>The occasion when the thing really<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_80" id="Page_80">[Pg 80]</a></span> +happened was when Don John VI, +King of Portugal, removed his royal +throne and all the paraphernalia of +government from Lisbon to Rio de +Janeiro, in 1807 (being impelled +thereto by an intrusive movement on +the part of one Napoleon Bonaparte), +and turned Portugal (after the withdrawal +of the French) into an actual +dependency of Brazil. This it remained +until King John recrossed +the Atlantic in 1820. Throughout +that period the scepter bore sway +from west to east, from America +Europe-ward.</p> + +<p>Very much the same thing would +have occurred further north in the +contingency to which I have referred; +and if it had, a royalist or +monarchist influence might have been +laid upon the English colonies in +America which would have colored +their history and institutions in a +marked degree, even if their destiny +had not been permanently affected.</p> + +<p>When Charles I, King of England,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_81" id="Page_81">[Pg 81]</a></span> +was arrested, imprisoned, and put to +death by the Parliament party in +1649, Virginia experienced a shock +of shame and indignation. That colony +had absolutely no sympathy with +Cromwell and his party. It was in +no sense or part Puritan. The Cavalier +sentiment dominated it completely; +for though the bulk of its +inhabitants came out very poor, and +were as far as possible from being +"gentlemen," they were not at all of +the material of which Roundheads +were made; nor had they any influence +in the government of the +Province. The General Assembly +represented the gentlemen of the +colony, who were royalists to a man.</p> + +<p>It is not surprising, therefore, that +upon the receipt of the news of the +execution of Charles I, the General +Assembly of Virginia lost no time in +meeting and passing an act in which +the dead king's son, Charles II, was +recognized as the rightful and reigning +sovereign. Legal processes, and<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_82" id="Page_82">[Pg 82]</a></span> +the machinery of the provincial government, +continued to run in the +king's name. In England, Cromwell +was installed as Lord Protector. But +Virginia refused to recognize him or +his title. At least one county of Virginia +formally proclaimed Charles +king, requiring "all his majesty's +liege people to pray God to bless +Charles the Second, King of England, +Scotland, France and Ireland, +Virginia, New England and the +Caribda Islands." This, I believe, +was the first appearance of the term +"King of Virginia," a title which +was destined to be heard again somewhat +later.</p> + +<p>Nor did the people content themselves +with proclaiming Charles king. +In 1650, Governor Berkeley sent Colonel +Norwood to Holland to invite +the prince to become the ruling sovereign +of what Raleigh had called "the +newe Inglishe Nation" on this side +the water. Charles did not accept. +Nor did he frankly refuse. He had<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_83" id="Page_83">[Pg 83]</a></span> +not the boldness to go to Virginia, +but he was delighted with the chance +to put on for a moment the manner +and authority of a ruler. He sent +Berkeley a new commission as governor, +signed by himself as king, and +gave Colonel Norwood a commission +as treasurer of the colony. Both commissions +were honored in Virginia.</p> + +<p>The colony, indeed, with Barbadoes +in the West Indies, virtually constituted +itself the Dominion of King +Charles the Second; and it is in +memory of that assumption of the +whole kingdom's prerogative, as the +Virginians believe, that the state is +called the Old Dominion to-day.</p> + +<p>Nor did the people propose that +their allegiance should remain merely +nominal. They essayed actually to cut +the connection with Cromwell's Commonwealth +and maintain themselves +as the sovereign remainder of the +English realm. They succeeded in +maintaining this position for a considerable +time—until, that is, 1651,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_84" id="Page_84">[Pg 84]</a></span> +when Cromwell's government sent +three ships of war to reduce the Virginians +to submission. As all the +principal settlements were within +easy reach of navigable water, and +had not developed sufficient back territory +by means of which to support +themselves, it was impracticable for +them to hold out long; they were +obliged to submit. Cromwell treated +the province oppressively, and forbade +the other colonies to trade with +it.</p> + +<p>It is not at all surprising that Virginia, +which in the meantime had become +the place of refuge of many +more royalists, took steps to throw +off the Puritan allegiance as soon as +possible after Cromwell's death, and +sought to anticipate the restoration +of the Stuarts. Sir William Berkeley, +whom Cromwell had displaced +with a Roundhead governor, was +again called to the head of things by +the people. He refused to assume the +governorship at their mandate unless<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_85" id="Page_85">[Pg 85]</a></span> +they gave him their solemn and formal +promise to venture their lives +and fortunes for King Charles II. +This promise was given him by the +unanimous voice of the electors. +Berkeley then proceeded to proclaim +Charles "King of England, Scotland, +France, Ireland and Virginia." +Virginia was once more the sole existing +segment of the king's dominion. +In Virginia, and in Virginia +only, processes and documents were +issued in his name.</p> + +<p>Charles was therefore really king +in Virginia, though in very fact he +was still living a lazy and rather low +life in the Dutch towns, or eating, as +a guest, the bread of the French and +Spanish nobility. The Virginians, +however, were not at all content with +having set up a mere paper sovereignty +for him. Berkeley had kept +in touch, by letter and through messengers, +with Charles, and had sent +word to him, in Holland, before the +Commonwealth had fallen, that he<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_86" id="Page_86">[Pg 86]</a></span> +would raise his standard in Virginia +if the king would give his consent. +Once more he offered him a Virginian +crown. Richard Lee was sent to +Holland with a proposition from +Berkeley to take the field for the +king. It was even proposed that +Charles should come to Virginia and +set up his throne there.</p> + +<p>The king once more sent cordial +thanks to the Virginians. But he did +not accept their proposition. We can +imagine that along one side of his +nature it appealed to him, and on +the other and commanding side it +was quite unwelcome; that is to say, +while it must have inflamed somewhat +his ambition to be king once +more and have done with the eating +of the bread of others, it was quite +in conflict with his natural indolence +and moral cowardice. His first attempt +to assert his kingship, when, +on the field of Worcester, he was +ignominiously defeated by Cromwell, +had sickened him with all proceedings +having the stamp of energy upon<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_87" id="Page_87">[Pg 87]</a></span> +them. As a matter of fact, it would +have been perfectly safe for him to +raise his standard and set up his +throne in Virginia. But he would +not venture it. He would remain on +the Continent and await the turn of +events.</p> + +<p>Ere long events made him king in +England. The Commonwealth fell +to pieces when there was no longer +a strong hand to guide it. Charles +landed shabbily, even squalidly, at +Dover, almost sneaking into the +country, instead of coming in triumph +from Virginia, with a kingly +New World in his hand, as he might +have done if he had accepted Berkeley's +invitation.</p> + +<p>If, after his defeat at Worcester, +he had taken advantage of Virginia's +first proffer and of French assistance, +and raised his flag in America, +Charles might have affected the +world's history very materially. +There was no time when the Puritans<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_88" id="Page_88">[Pg 88]</a></span> +were not in a minority in England. +They held down the majority +for a time because they had developed +a superior military capacity, +and had a splendid, resolute army. +But to the nucleus of a brilliant Cavalier +command in the New World, the +more vigorous English royalists +might have rallied. A court at Williamsburg, +which was then and for a +long time afterward the capital of +Virginia, would have meant a royal +court in London much sooner than it +really arrived, and would have caused +the Commonwealth to leave a fainter +and narrower mark upon the history of +England than in the event it did leave.</p> + +<p>Meantime, what a brilliant court +would have assembled around the +gay and talkative monarch at Williamsburg! +Already the Lees, the +Washingtons, the Berkeleys, and +many others of the "first families," +were established in Virginia. +Charles would probably have been +happy in the easy, light-hearted atmosphere<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_89" id="Page_89">[Pg 89]</a></span> +of the plantations. There +were no Puritans there to bother him. +Virginia had made its own laws +against Puritan practices—and enforced +them.</p> + +<p>Never was a monarch who would +have been better pleased with having +about him actual slaves—men +and women whose bodies he would +have owned. His sway must have +spread northward as far as the border +of the French possessions, for +though New England was Puritan, it +bent reluctantly to the sway of the +Commonwealth, seeming to scent in +the Roundhead sovereignty a kind +of rival that threatened to take over +its half-won autonomy. A kingship +exercised in America would probably +have suited the men of New England +very well.</p> + +<p>In all likelihood the throne would +in due time have been transferred to +the mother country. But its erection +here, even for a few years, must have +infused into the character of the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_90" id="Page_90">[Pg 90]</a></span> +Americans generally a larger element +of monarchicalism than fell to their +lot as it was. Virginia would hardly +have fallen off so readily into colonial +republicanism as it did in 1774-1776. +English neglect of a really +royalist Virginia sowed the seed of +Virginian rebellion. If Virginia +had not supported Massachusetts, +shoulder to shoulder, there could not +have been an American Revolution. +Charles did not know how far he let +Virginia go when he rebuffed Berkeley's +emissaries.</p> + +<p>The sentiment of personal loyalty +to the crown remained strong in the +colonies up to the very outburst of +the Revolution. The Americans dissolved +the relation of subject and +sovereign with regret. If they had +ever had a king whom they could call +their own, the interest enkindled and +perpetuated by his presence might +very well have turned the scale in +1776 and prevented the withdrawal +of the colonies.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_91" id="Page_91">[Pg 91]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER X</h2> + +<h3>IF ADMIRAL PENN HAD PERSISTED IN<br /> +DISOWNING HIS SON WILLIAM</h3> + + +<p>When an English father, irascible +and opinionated, disowns +and turns out of doors a son +who has not only disobeyed him but +proved false to the traditions and +obvious interests of the family, he is +very apt to adhere to his action. A +very great deal turned upon a case, +once, in which an English father, +after making a very firm show of +disowning his son, at last relented +and took him back to his heart.</p> + +<p>Pennsylvania, to wit, turned upon +it; and all the amazing success of +William Penn's great experiment in<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_92" id="Page_92">[Pg 92]</a></span> +colonization. There has never been +anything quite like that success in +the world's history, for the great +trek of the already established American +population in the nineteenth century +was a readjustment, an extension, +rather than a colonization in +the true sense. The planting of +Pennsylvania was a true colonization. +Not only did it amount to the creation +of a great and model commonwealth, +full-fledged, with a composite +new-world population, in twenty or +even ten years' time, but it furnished +the keystone to the arch of states +that constituted the American republic +in the next century after +Penn's settlement.</p> + +<p>Philadelphia led the American +towns in the seven years of the Revolution. +It was their capital commercially +as well as politically. It +supplied most of the sinews of war. +Without Robert Morris's $1,400,000, +all of which came from Philadelphia, +the final and crucial campaign of<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_93" id="Page_93">[Pg 93]</a></span> +the war could not have been fought. +More than that, without just the sort +of commonwealth that Pennsylvania +had already become, standing in the +center of things—cosmopolitan, independent +of royalist or aristocratic +influence, populous, well-to-do, democratic, +steady—it is hard to see how +the Revolution could have been undertaken +at all.</p> + +<p>But for the incident which permitted +Penn's settlement, the vast +territory which afterward constituted +Pennsylvania would have become +merely an extension of New +York, or of New Jersey, or of Maryland, +or of Virginia, or of all of them. +The chances are that its resources +would have been exploited by slave +labor. The greater part of the state +might have remained slave territory +up to 1861. In any case its development +would have been much more +slow, its peopling much less rapid. +Not only must Indian wars have +checked growth, but the spectacle of<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_94" id="Page_94">[Pg 94]</a></span> +the arrival of five hundred thousand +stalwart Germans, the creation of the +largest city in the colonies within +fifty years, and the upbuilding, in +that time, of a trade from the Delaware +River that employed more than +five hundred ships and seven thousand +sailors, could never have been +presented.</p> + +<p>The part which Pennsylvania began +to play from the moment of Penn's +arrival, and which it still plays, in +American affairs, was directly dependent +upon Penn's character and +genius, and, for a long time, upon +his wealth and social position. Without +the wealth which William Penn +inherited from his father, Admiral +Sir William Penn, he could not have +organized his Pennsylvania Society, +nor bought the site of Philadelphia. +Without the position, as well as the +wealth, which he inherited, he could +not, in the first place, have aspired +to the acquaintance with and confidence +of King Charles II; and these<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_95" id="Page_95">[Pg 95]</a></span> +were absolutely essential to the extraordinary +charter, in behalf of a +despised and distrusted people, which +Penn received at the king's hands.</p> + +<p>Had Penn always been in this favorable +position? We shall see. The +admiral, his father, was a good +churchman and a conservative man. +King Charles held him in very high +estimation. The son was brilliant, +and of noble character. He was sent +to Oxford University; and what was +the father's astonishment, after the +boy had been there some little time, +to hear that he had joined the despised +and persecuted sect of the Quakers! +This was very much as if, at the +present day, the son and heir of a +great multi-millionaire should join, +not merely the Socialists, but the +Anarchists at Paterson!</p> + +<p>Sir William raved and scolded. +The son only grew more firm in the +faith. Sir William endured much; +but finding the young man actually +inclined to address the king as<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_96" id="Page_96">[Pg 96]</a></span> +"thou," he told him that if he committed +this impropriety, or "thee-ed" +and "thoued" either him, the admiral, +or the Duke of York, he would +disown him, and cut him off without +a shilling. On the very first opportunity +after this, young William addressed +King Charles as "thou!" +The king, having a more than royal +sense of humor, made a jest of the +matter, but Sir William did not. He +was as good as his word. He turned +his son out of doors, and bade him +begone. The youth went abroad, and +took up for a time a very much discredited +existence. He had already +been expelled from the university.</p> + +<p>Here, for a time, the fate of Pennsylvania +certainly trembled in the +balance. It was quite within the outraged +admiral's power to make the +ban permanent. If he had done so, +there would never have been a +Quaker-German commonwealth in +America.</p> + +<p>It is known that the son accepted<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_97" id="Page_97">[Pg 97]</a></span> +his banishment as permanent. But +his mother did not. She pleaded +with the father for his forgiveness. +She reminded him of the boy's great +natural goodness, his brilliancy, his +affectionateness. He would, Lady +Penn maintained, recover from his +distemper of Quakerism. She begged +her husband, before it was too late, +to relent and recall him.</p> + +<p>At length, moved by this appeal +and the promptings of his own heart, +the admiral called the young man +home. Once or twice afterwards he +was on the point of a more radical +banishment of him. But, fortunately +for the New World, Sir William's +heart was soft after all. The +son was reëstablished in his good +graces. After the admiral's death, +in 1670, it was found that he had bequeathed +all his wealth to the son, +and, owing to the son's influence, +the Quakers improved their position +not a little, and in due time Penn +organized and put through the Pennsylvania<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_98" id="Page_98">[Pg 98]</a></span> +experiment. But King +Charles took good care to inform +him that the name "Pennsylvania," +officially bestowed on the colony, was +not in honor of the founder, but in +compliment to the admiral, his father.</p> + +<p>Narrow as this contingency may +have been, since so great an event +depended on the impulse of one man, +it was after all a moral contingency, +and not due of physical accident, as +so many others have been. It is the +more impressive for this reason. It +is good to know that a few heartbeats +the more, in the breast of a +man who can be kind as well as hot-tempered, +may create a mighty empire.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_99" id="Page_99">[Pg 99]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER XI</h2> + +<h3>IF THE BOY GEORGE WASHINGTON HAD<br /> +BECOME A BRITISH MIDSHIPMAN</h3> + + +<p>One summer day, in 1746, a +British ship of war lay in +the Potomac River below the place +where the city of Washington now +stands. The officers of the ship had +been visiting at Mount Vernon, which +was the residence of Major Lawrence +Washington, adjutant-general of Virginia.</p> + +<p>No vessel of the royal navy entered +the Potomac River without a visit on +the part of its officers to Major Washington's +house. He had been in the +king's service at the siege of Cartagena +and elsewhere. Admiral Vernon<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_100" id="Page_100">[Pg 100]</a></span> +was his friend; Major Washington's +estate on the Potomac had been +named after the admiral. Lawrence +Washington's acquaintance with the +men of both army and navy was wide, +and his popularity among them great. +A visit to his hospitable residence, +where he entertained them with true +Virginian lavishness, was always a +bright spot in any naval officer's life +at that day.</p> + +<p>At Lawrence Washington's table, +for two or three years prior to 1746, +had sat his younger brother, George +by name. This lad, who was a gentleman +and a soldier in miniature, +had often listened to stories of the +exploits of the navy—of the capture +of Porto Bello, of the bombardment +of Cartagena, and of cruisings and +battles along the Spanish Main. +These stories and personal contact +with their heroes had inspired him +with an eager desire to enter the +naval service. His father was dead, +and his brother, who had virtually<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_101" id="Page_101">[Pg 101]</a></span> +taken the father's place, favored the +boy's design. His mother had opposed +it. But at last she had been +induced to give her consent. A midshipman's +warrant was obtained for +young George Washington, and on +the summer day in 1746 of which we +have spoken his luggage had actually +been sent on board the ship lying in +the river.</p> + +<p>But at the last moment Mary Washington +flatly rebelled. She could not +bear the thought of her boy's going +to sea. She foresaw a time when she +would need him at home. She withdrew +her consent; and as her signature +was necessary to his enlistment, +it was impossible for him to join the +ship, and his luggage was sent back +to Mount Vernon.</p> + +<p>So thus it happened that George +Washington did not, at the age of +fourteen, enter the British navy, and +embark upon a career which would +probably have held him fast all the +rest of his life.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_102" id="Page_102">[Pg 102]</a></span>It was a real contingency—that of +the possible commitment of George +Washington to the royal cause. +Every influence that bore upon him, +up to the date of his brother Lawrence's +death, in 1752, was royalist. +This brother was married to the +daughter of George William Fairfax, +cousin and manager of the great +American estates of Lord Fairfax. +Lord Fairfax himself, removing to +Virginia, became the patron, friend +and mentor of young George Washington. +The young man was in constant +association with Englishmen, +and always more or less under official +influence.</p> + +<p>The Fairfaxes remained loyal to the +British power when the war of independence +was declared. If Lawrence +Washington had lived it is quite conceivable—aye, +probable—that he +would have gone with them. If +George Washington had not been +thrown much into contact after that +with his Virginian neighbors, among<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_103" id="Page_103">[Pg 103]</a></span> +whom the spirit of rebellion had been +propagated from Massachusetts—if +he had not himself become a colonial +soldier and commander—there can be +little question that he would have +clung to the English side.</p> + +<p>In the meantime, undoubtedly, he +would have been advanced to rather +high rank in the naval service, if he +had joined it. The years between +1746, when the midshipman's warrant +was obtained for Washington, +and 1774, when the colonies began to +flame up into revolt, had been of great +activity at sea.</p> + +<p>The young officer might have participated +in the destruction of the +French fleet at Cape Finisterre; in +the victory off Lagos; in the great +decisive combat in Quiberon Bay; in +the capture of Havana, and in many +other sea fights. He would have +fought by the side of Boscawen, Sir +Edward Hawke, Lord Howe, Duff +and Rodney, and very likely have +won laurels such as theirs. Nothing<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_104" id="Page_104">[Pg 104]</a></span> +colonial could have separated him +from the flag which he had thus +served, any more than the influence +of his native state could have separated +Farragut from the Stars and +Stripes in 1861.</p> + +<p>Is it too much to say that the +American republic would have been +fatherless without Washington? Perhaps +an arm might have been found—though +that is doubtful—that +could have wielded his sword. But +where was the brain, the patience, +the tact, the determination, that +would have composed the differences +in the American councils, and have +kept the discordant colonies and the +jealous commanders together?</p> + +<p>That another man, that any combination +of men, could have done +what he did, is inconceivable. In the +grandeur of his character and in the +genius with which he accomplished +a tremendous work, he is uncompanioned +not only in America, but +in the history of the world. Without<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_105" id="Page_105">[Pg 105]</a></span> +his steadying hand in the war, the +American army would have followed +a devious course to death, and the +young republic one to its destruction.</p> + +<p>As to the decisive part which he +played in the formation of the union +of the States after the war, the word +of his companions in the Federal +Constituent Convention is conclusive. +"Were it not for one great character +in America," said Grayson of Virginia, +referring to Washington, "so +many men would not be for this government; +we do not fear while he +lives, but who besides him can concentrate +the confidence and affection +of all Americans?" No one else ever +could have concentrated them. Monroe +reported to Jefferson, "Be assured +Washington's influence carried +this government." And Bancroft has +put this judgment on record: "The +country was an instrument with thirteen +strings, and the only master +who could bring out all their harmonious +thought was Washington.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_106" id="Page_106">[Pg 106]</a></span> +Had the idea prevailed that he would +not accept the Presidency, it would +have proved fatal."</p> + +<p>Washington was the pivot upon +which all things turned. Lacking +such a pivot, the machinery of the +American republic would have tumbled +into ruin. Happy the choice of +the Virginian mother who could not +spare her boy on that summer day, +and sent aboard the man-of-war in +Potomac's stream for his dunnage!</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_107" id="Page_107">[Pg 107]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER XII</h2> + +<h3>IF ALEXANDER HAMILTON HAD NOT<br /> +WRITTEN ABOUT THE<br /> +HURRICANE</h3> + + +<p>"He thought out the Constitution +of the United States and the +details of the government of the +Union; and out of the chaos that existed +after the Revolution raised a +fabric every part of which is instinct +with his thought." So said one of +his contemporaries, Ambrose Spencer, +of Alexander Hamilton; and another +said: "He did the thinking of his +time." The thinking that Hamilton +did for the young American republic +was of the most tremendous and vital +importance to it. His services as a<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_108" id="Page_108">[Pg 108]</a></span> +financier were not merely of a negative +or saving character—they were +positively constructive and permanently +enduring; he "created a public +credit and brought the resources +of the country into active efficiency." +It was Hamilton who founded the +American system of business and +finance.</p> + +<p>Yet it is altogether likely that but +for an accidental circumstance or +two Alexander Hamilton would never +have come to the continental colonies. +He was born on the Island of +Nevis, in the West Indies, and upon +that island, and upon St. Christopher +and St. Croix, neighboring islands, +his life up to the age of fifteen was +spent. His father, James Hamilton, +had proved "feckless and unfortunate," +as a British biographer of +Hamilton expresses it, and early +ceased to provide for the boy, or, apparently, +to take any interest in his +education or welfare. His mother +died early, and left him to the charge<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_109" id="Page_109">[Pg 109]</a></span> +of her relatives, and as she bequeathed +to them several other children, +they had little thought about +Alexander except to make him of +some use and lighten their own burden. +He was sent to school scarcely +at all, and at the age of twelve was +put into the shop or store of Nicholas +Cruger, a general dealer at St. Croix, +to earn his living as a clerk.</p> + +<p>There he remained for about three +years. He has often been described +as phenomenally precocious, and he +certainly was, in the sense that his +mind ripened early. But there was +nothing of the quality of smart, self-satisfied +immaturity about his genius. +He read much, studied deeply, and +received some good training at the +hands of Rev. Hugh Knox, a Presbyterian +minister.</p> + +<p>But all at once there occurred the +accident which resulted in his going +to the continental colonies. In the +late summer of 1772 a fearful hurricane +swept over the Leeward Islands.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_110" id="Page_110">[Pg 110]</a></span> +The boy Hamilton, then fifteen years +old, had his full share in the adventures +attending this calamity, and +wrote a long and vivid account of it +for a newspaper published at St. +Christopher. By this brilliant piece +of news work the entire West Indies +were electrified. The people there +had had plenty of hurricanes before, +but none of them had ever been adequately +"written up." Young Hamilton +awoke one morning to find himself +in the enjoyment of a fame which +extended all the way from Jamaica +to Trinidad.</p> + +<p>The immediate result of this notoriety +was to convince Alexander's +relatives that they possessed in him +a prodigy, and to stimulate them to +find means to educate him. They +raised a fund forthwith without any +particular difficulty, and shipped him, +armed with a letter of introduction +from Rev. Mr. Knox, to Boston, en +route to New York. Lacking this +assistance, it is unlikely that the youth<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_111" id="Page_111">[Pg 111]</a></span> +would have found his way to our +shores. Perhaps he would, in spite of +everything, have risen to eminence +in the West Indies. Very likely he +would one day have drifted to Scotland +or England, and he might have +become a famous man there. But +America would have lost him.</p> + +<p>There is still another and vital contingency +associated with Hamilton's +removal to the American continent. +On its way to Boston, while in the +open ocean, the ship on which he had +sailed took fire. For some time it was +in danger of destruction. But with +great difficulty the flames were extinguished. +If they had prevailed, +the career of the West Indian genius +would doubtless have been cut short +by death.</p> + +<p>Thus, by the aid, first, of a tropical +hurricane, and, second, through the +efforts of the crew of the ship that +bore him, in stifling a fire in the hold, +Alexander Hamilton reached the +American colonies just in time to be<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_112" id="Page_112">[Pg 112]</a></span> +swept into the current of the movement +for independence; to be made +over anew into an ardent American, +and to put his stamp forever upon +the young nation which arose from +the smoke of Bunker Hill. The dark-skinned, +dark-eyed, exotic-looking +student at King's College, whom the +citizens of New York at first looked +at askance as a very "queer West +Indian," became a great leader, a +commander, a guide, a magnificent +constructive as well as restraining +force.</p> + +<p>What this country would have been +without him, or rather, what it must +forever have failed to be, may be inferred +from the things which it became +that were owed to him. He was +the inventor of American protection. +American industry was founded upon +his "report on manufactures." As +the first and greatest of Federalists, +he saved the confederation from disruption +by supplying the idea of central +authority. Others might labor<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_113" id="Page_113">[Pg 113]</a></span> +for freedom—he labored for security. +He put reason at the bottom of our +commonwealth. Without his principles, +the republic would have lacked +a balance wheel. The States' rights +would have been everything—the nation's +rights nothing.</p> + +<p>All our national expansion was +wrapped up in Hamilton's views. +McKinley and Roosevelt have been +his continuators. The sentiment +which governs our republic to-day is +Hamiltonian; and the war and discord +that have afflicted us, as the result +of the looseness of our confederation, +must long since have wrecked +the nation but for the balance wheel +with which he supplied us.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_114" id="Page_114">[Pg 114]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER XIII</h2> + +<h3>IF LA FAYETTE HAD HELD THE FRENCH<br /> +REIGN OF TERROR IN CHECK</h3> + + +<p>In every age of the world, and in +every place, one voice has always +commanded in the affairs of +nations, peoples and communities. If +oligarchies, legislatures, groups or +cabals have seemed to bear sway, it +has nevertheless been true that in +each of these groups, from time to +time, the influence of some individual +has been preponderant. The freest +republics are an organization of this +principle—a willing submission of the +many to the leadership of chosen men.</p> + +<p>In times of stress and strife and +change it is impossible that strong<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_115" id="Page_115">[Pg 115]</a></span> +men should not seize the reins of +power, no matter what political system +exists, no matter what anarchy +tends to prevail. Change, indeed, +makes the opportunity of the strong; +and the fate of nations and continents +depends upon the character of +the strong man who is brought forth. +If he is good, as Washington was +good, his fellow-countrymen derive +lasting and unmeasured benefit from +his grasping of his opportunity. If +he is bad, as Napoleon Bonaparte was +bad, the evil harvest of his vices may +be reaped through generations and +centuries, as France has reaped, and +is now reaping, an inheritance of +strife and national decline.</p> + +<p>When the Revolution of 1789 came +to France there were many people, of +all parties and conditions, who believed +that the country had its Washington. +He was to be found, they +thought, in the person of the Marquis +de La Fayette. This man was Washington's +friend. He had successfully<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_116" id="Page_116">[Pg 116]</a></span> +copied many of his virtues. He was +unselfishly patriotic. He believed in +the liberty of the people, and wished +to see them govern themselves. +Though himself a nobleman, he believed +in the abolition of titles of nobility. +In his room, and afterward +in his office as a public servant, he +kept two frames hanging on the wall. +In one frame was a copy of the American +Declaration of Independence. +The other frame was empty, but it +bore the legend, "This space awaits +the French Declaration of Independence."</p> + +<p>When the Revolution broke out, La +Fayette was called by the people to +the center of real power—the command +of the troops in Paris. Both +king and people trusted him. His +power for good was almost absolute. +He prevented anarchy and restored +order in Paris after the overthrow of +the Bastile. He gave the country a +Bill of Rights and a Constitution +founded on the American models.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_117" id="Page_117">[Pg 117]</a></span> +The quarrels of the warring factions +were stayed by his hand. The mob +dared not turn the king out. La +Fayette's moderating influence was +the ballast that kept the French nation, +in spite of certain excesses, on +a steady keel.</p> + +<p>Even when the Girondists and Jacobins +rose and were ready to fly at +one another's throats, the fear of La +Fayette kept these factions from violence. +If he had maintained this influence—if +he had preserved the +sagacity and boldness to side with +the people and lead them—the French +nation might have been saved from +anarchy, reaction, the tyrannies of +emperors and of mobs, and the slow +degeneration that has followed its +long diet of gunpowder.</p> + +<p>But in the test La Fayette did not +exhibit this power. In 1792 he was +in the field, in command of an army, +resisting the Prussian invasion. The +nation, aroused, was equal to the task +of repelling foreign attack. But in<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_118" id="Page_118">[Pg 118]</a></span> +Paris events were marching. The +people rose and overthrew the throne +and the royalist Constitution which +La Fayette had made. But they +turned still to La Fayette. They offered +him the chief executive power +in the new government.</p> + +<p>This was his opportunity to save +France. He was not equal to it. He +did not rise to the emergency. He +not only refused the offer of power, +but made his troops renew their oaths +of fidelity to the king. Then the Assembly +declared him a traitor; and +La Fayette, taking with him a few +followers, deserted his command, +made his way to Bouillon, on the +frontier, and rode out of France into +a foreign land!</p> + +<p>No man can imagine Washington +taking such a step as that. La Fayette +suffered from it, and he afterwards +served his country nobly. But +the eternal mischief of his weakness +had been done. Girondists and Jacobins, +relieved from the fear of him,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_119" id="Page_119">[Pg 119]</a></span> +turned to mutual destruction and +murder. The Reign of Terror was +on. The nation was plunged in an +orgy of blood. Four hundred thousand +men and women were put to +death. Liberty in France was assassinated +in the house of its friends.</p> + +<p>One man, I have said, always comes +to the top of things. With La Fayette +gone, Robespierre, the man of blood, +prevailed. Robespierre was the Terror. +And after him, the Terror having +appeased its fearful thirst, and +Robespierre's head having gone into +the basket with his victims', there +came another man to take advantage +of the paralysis the perverted Revolution +had inflicted upon France. +That man was Napoleon Bonaparte.</p> + +<p>Bonaparte freed La Fayette from +captivity. Bonaparte held him in +contempt, calling him a "noodle." It +was not so bad as that. But Napoleon +despised a man who had had +his chance and failed to grasp it.</p> + +<p>Had La Fayette proved equal to<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_120" id="Page_120">[Pg 120]</a></span> +that opportunity, France would have +been organized as a constitutional republic. +The Terror would not have +been. Napoleon's ambition might +have been held in check. The balance +in Europe would have been +maintained, but the leadership of +France would have been consolidated +and become immortal. The nations +would have followed her example. +Monarchy would have died of dry +rot. The dream of a United States +of Europe might have been realized—perhaps +with a city of La Fayette, +the capital of the vast confederation, +the European equivalent city of +Washington, smiling down, it may be, +from the neutral shores of the Lake of +Constance to east, to west, to north, +to south, with a benediction of peace.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_121" id="Page_121">[Pg 121]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER XIV</h2> + +<h3>IF GILBERT LIVINGSTON HAD NOT VOTED<br /> +NEW YORK INTO THE UNION</h3> + + +<p>How many Americans of the +present day realize that the +State of New York, at the time of +the adoption of the national Constitution, +was radically and overwhelmingly +opposed to entrance into the +Union which the Constitution proposed, +and was at last forced into the +league of States only by the demonstration +that the State would be isolated +and cut off from its neighbor +States if it did not join, with a tariff +wall raised against it? It is indeed +hard for New Yorkers to realize, as<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_122" id="Page_122">[Pg 122]</a></span> +they live to-day under the Stars and +Stripes, having forgotten what their +State flag is, and being among the +most zealous supporters of the Union, +that their State led the opposition to +the Constitution, and that but for the +influence of a very few men in two +other States, New York might have +prevented the consummation of that +"more perfect union."</p> + +<p>The contingency that prevented the +State from dismembering the Union +at its start was a narrow one, but it +had been provided for. Hamilton +and the Federalists had laid their +plans well. They first furnished the +Southern States, and the smallest +States in the North, with an interested +reason for joining the Union. +They gave the men of the South representation +on their slaves. They +made the little States equal with the +great States in the Senate. Then they +provided that when nine States had +ratified the Constitution it should become +effective, and a confederation<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_123" id="Page_123">[Pg 123]</a></span> +should be formed by those nine States, +if there were no others.</p> + +<p>Then the ratifications began. The +game was to get nine States. Little +Delaware said "Yes" first. Franklin +and Wilson had a firm hold upon +Pennsylvania, and that State entered +next under the pressure they exerted. +New Jersey, Georgia, Connecticut, +Massachusetts, Maryland and South +Carolina followed. This made eight +States. Then things stuck fast. +Would there be a ninth?</p> + +<p>Two thirds of the delegates in the +convention of New York were firmly +opposed to ratification. They believed +the Constitution meant an end +of the liberties of the States. They +saw a royal throne looming up for +America. They feared, they said, a +great central power which should oppress +and overtax the people of the +States. Governor Clinton led the opposition +to ratification. Hamilton's +able arguments had no effect. New +York would not come in.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_124" id="Page_124">[Pg 124]</a></span>All the remaining States were believed +to be also opposed. New +Hampshire had refused to comply +with the requisitions of the Confederation; +why should it look +with more favor on the Constitution? +In Virginia, Patrick Henry +led the opposition to ratification +with impassioned eloquence. Richard +Henry Lee, William Grayson, +George Mason and James Monroe, +all great men in the State, +were unalterably opposed to ratification. +It certainly looked black +for the Union.</p> + +<p>But in this moment of apparent triumph, +while the New York convention +was in session, Governor Clinton +and his party in the convention heard +surprising news. New Hampshire, +under the influence of Massachusetts +and of the wiser counsels of some of +its own leaders, ratified the Constitution +on the 21st of June, 1788—more +than nine months after the +adoption of the instrument by the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_125" id="Page_125">[Pg 125]</a></span> +Constitutional Convention at Philadelphia.</p> + +<p>This event put a new face on the +situation in New York. The Union +was now decreed. If New York did +not enter it, she must be prepared to +stand alone, as an independent nation. +Could she do that? The new +Confederation would hem her in on +both sides. To it would belong New +Jersey, which flanked her only seaport +on the west, and Connecticut and +Massachusetts, which walled her in +on the east. The shape of the State +adapted it very badly indeed for an +independent position. Moreover, influences +were known to be at work +which would precipitate a hostile +tariff against the States which remained +out of the Union. A few +months later such a tariff was actually +adopted against Rhode Island, which +was treated as a foreign country in +the levying of duties on imports.</p> + +<p>New York could not stand that. +Gilbert Livingston and a few others<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_126" id="Page_126">[Pg 126]</a></span> +changed their votes under a distinct +announcement that the pressure of +"sister States" had made it impracticable +to continue the opposition. +But even at the last, the Constitution +was ratified by a majority of only two +in a vote of sixty! Gilbert Livingston +held the fate of the State in +his hands, and he, though pledged +against the Union, put New York +into the Union by his vote.</p> + +<p>One vote would have kept New +York out.</p> + +<p>We have noted the fact that New +York's position was unfavorable for +an attempt at independence. But the +fact that the voice of but one man +prevented the attempt shows that the +other opposing delegates were not +much afraid of making the leap. Supposing +Gilbert Livingston had voted +the other way, and the vote had been +thirty-one to twenty-nine against ratification, +instead of the same figure in +its favor? What would have resulted?</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_127" id="Page_127">[Pg 127]</a></span>Let us see. Two other States were +radically opposed to the Constitution—Rhode +Island and North Carolina. +Very likely they would have been +glad to form a defensive alliance with +New York. Virginia ratified a few +days after New Hampshire, but she +might easily have retracted her ratification, +for she had no heart in it. +With Virginia, the malcontent States +would have had (census of 1790) a +population of 1,550,306, against 2,378,908 +for the remaining colonies, including +Vermont, which was not yet +in. This would not have been an utterly +hopeless foundation for a new +league, constituted on the easy terms +upon which, and upon which only, +these States were willing to enter the +Union. The want of contiguity of territory +would have been the worst objection +to the formation of the league.</p> + +<p>But the real effect of New York's +self-exclusion, so narrowly prevented, +would have been a negative one. It +would have prevented all cohesion<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_128" id="Page_128">[Pg 128]</a></span> +in the new Union. It would have +driven a wedge straight through the +new republic, from west to east. +Worse, it would have erected secession +into a principle from the start. +Ere long we should have had at least +three republics instead of one, and +probably more. Politically we should +have been what Central and South +America are now. Real progress +would have been barred. Wars +would have been probable between +the States. European political influences +would have penetrated the +weaker States, or alliances of States.</p> + +<p>In short, the "American idea," +government of the people by the people +and for the people, would probably +have been stillborn. By his +change of vote, Gilbert Livingston +signed the death warrant of the principle +of secession. Not only did he set +going the unifying influences which +prevailed over State sovereignty, but +he decreed the Empire State, destined +to be a bulwark against disunion.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_129" id="Page_129">[Pg 129]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER XV</h2> + +<h3>IF THE PIRATE JEAN LAFITTE HAD JOINED<br /> +THE BRITISH AT NEW ORLEANS</h3> + + +<p>After the battle of New Orleans, +on the 8th of January, +1814, General Andrew Jackson, the +victorious commander, called before +him a certain officer, of dashing and +Frenchy appearance, and publicly +thanked him for the important part +which he had borne in the battle. To +judge from the signal honor done to +this man, the credit for the victory +was in no inconsiderable part due to +him. And, indeed, this was the case.</p> + +<p>The man to whom the victor's +thanks had been thus conspicuously +awarded was Jean Lafitte, the Baratarian<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_130" id="Page_130">[Pg 130]</a></span> +pirate. That the success of +Jackson in defeating and virtually +destroying the army of Pakenham, +consisting of the very flower of +the Duke of Wellington's soldiery, +hinged, in an important sense, upon +this extraordinary corsair and buccaneer, +has never been adequately +acknowledged in American history.</p> + +<p>Jean Lafitte, the foremost of the +three pirate brothers of Barataria, +was a man of extraordinary influence +and popularity among the French and +other Latin inhabitants of Louisiana +and New Orleans. He was a native of +France, and a brave and chivalrous +corsair, as corsairs go. A price had +already been put upon his head by +the American governor, Claiborne. +But so secure was Lafitte in the affections +of the Creole people, whom he +served in many ways, that he frequently +attended parties and receptions +in New Orleans. Arriving, on +such occasions, in the full splendor +of his outlaw state, and bringing joy<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_131" id="Page_131">[Pg 131]</a></span> +to the heart of every lady in the +room by his attractive manners as +well as by his fame, the pirate chief +would practically defy the authorities +to lay a hand upon him. If +agents of the law were sent to arrest +him, he knew of it, through a +hundred spies, long before they +reached the place, and withdrew at +once to some near-by hiding place +which was well known to him. In +New Orleans he had a hundred safe +places of refuge.</p> + +<p>Under his command was a force of +pirates who were many or few, according +to the exigencies of the moment; +for they could masquerade as +peaceful fishermen if necessary, or +they could, upon occasion, muster a +force of several hundred at a word's +notice—always perfectly armed, perfectly +drilled, thoroughly redoubtable.</p> + +<p>Lafitte preyed impartially upon all +the commerce of the Gulf of Mexico, +and, when pursued, ran into one of +the numerous mouths of the Mississippi<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_132" id="Page_132">[Pg 132]</a></span> +or some inlet of the Gulf—into +Barataria Lake, into Bayou Lafourche, +or into Bayou Teche. There +it was vain to follow him, for the intricacies +of these passages were +known only to his men or to the +dwellers along their shores, who +were in sympathy with him.</p> + +<p>When the British descended upon +New Orleans in the autumn of 1813, +they offered Jean Lafitte a captain's +commission in the British naval service, +thirty thousand dollars in money, +a full pardon for past offenses and +rewards in money and lands for his +followers if he would join them in +making war on the Americans. He +could easily have done so. The +French people of Louisiana had no +keen loyalty for the Stars and Stripes +at that time. As Lafitte went they +might have gone. The British knew +this, and made their bait a rich one.</p> + +<p>But Lafitte, although Claiborne's +price was on his head, and his brother +Pierre in prison in New Orleans, refused<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_133" id="Page_133">[Pg 133]</a></span> +the offer. Instead, he sent the +letters from Captain Lockyer, of the +British navy, making this proposition, +to the Louisiana legislature. +Later, after Pierre had escaped, he +actually joined General Jackson's +nondescript army with a force of +riflemen. He seems to have acted +from a very honest love for the young +American republic.</p> + +<p>Jackson, at first, under a misapprehension +of the circumstances, had +refused to accept the aid of these +"hellish banditti," as he had called +Lafitte's men in a proclamation on +his arrival. But when he found that +the British were upon him, and that +a considerable proportion of his +poorly equipped militia were without +flints for their muskets, he not only +accepted the flints that Lafitte sent +him, but gave the pirate an important +command on his right wing. There +Jean and his men performed signal +service.</p> + +<p>If Lafitte had joined the British<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_134" id="Page_134">[Pg 134]</a></span> +with his men and ships, there is little +likelihood that the Americans would +have had in this fight the powerful +aid of the vessels of war <i>Carolina</i> +and <i>Louisiana</i>, on the river. Nor is +it likely that they would have had +the passive support of the French +population. Nor that they would +have found any substitute for the +flints with which Lafitte supplied +them. And it is very likely that the +British assault upon Jackson's intrenchments +would have been attended +with a different result.</p> + +<p>Jackson, indeed, might have been +crushed very much as Windsor had +been crushed at Washington, not long +before.</p> + +<p>Such a result at New Orleans +would not have affected the outcome +of the war, for a peace favorable to +the American arms had already been +declared at Ghent. But how profoundly +a defeat would have influenced +the personal and political fortunes +of Andrew Jackson and all the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_135" id="Page_135">[Pg 135]</a></span> +events in American history which +hung upon his subsequent career!</p> + +<p>General Jackson won the presidency +in 1828 because he was the +military hero of the day. His popularity +was due to the brilliant victory +that he won at New Orleans. +After his defeat in 1824, a spectacular +visit which he made to the field +of the 1814 battle renewed the souvenirs +of the great fight and intensified +his popularity; and in 1828 he +was triumphantly elected. If he had +been defeated in battle by Pakenham, +and New Orleans had been +taken, his fame would have been extinguished +then and there.</p> + +<p>And without Jackson—should we +ever have had machine politics? It +was he who introduced these into our +government. He was the inventor +and discoverer of the spoils system. +"To the victors belong the spoils" +was the maxim of his lieutenant, +Marcy, and his own principle of action. +We have never been able quite<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_136" id="Page_136">[Pg 136]</a></span> +to shake off the system which he fastened +upon the country. Patronage +has been the curse of our politics +from that day to this.</p> + +<p>Then there was his determined and +disastrous assault on the United +States Bank. Upon this institution, +which was founded by Alexander +Hamilton, and whose position somewhat +resembled the present position +of the Bank of England, the financial +system of the country depended. +Jackson attacked it as a "wicked +monopoly," as a concrete expression +of the "money power." He succeeded +in wrecking the bank, in +bringing on the panic of 1837, which +wrought untold ruin and disaster to +the people, and in inaugurating in its +place the system of wildcat State +banks and currency chaos which +lasted up to the Civil War.</p> + +<p>But Jackson attacked more than +the United States Bank and the principle +that public office is a public +trust. He attacked nullification.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_137" id="Page_137">[Pg 137]</a></span> +Nullification meant that the States +could refuse to recognize or obey the +laws of the United States. He struck +that dictum hard, when it made its +appearance in South Carolina, and +paralyzed it to such an extent that +the portion of the nation which did +not believe in secession was able to +get its preponderant growth, and organize +its strength, and prevent disunion, +when the test finally came.</p> + +<p>Jackson saved the Union by stunning +the nullification snake until the +republic was big enough and strong +enough to trample it under foot. And +that, no doubt, was the greatest event +that hung on the contingency of Lafitte's +choice of sides at New Orleans.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_138" id="Page_138">[Pg 138]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER XVI</h2> + +<h3>IF JAMES MACDONNEL HAD NOT CLOSED<br /> +THE GATES OF HUGOMONT CASTLE</h3> + + +<p>According to the Duke of +Wellington himself, the success +of the allies at the Battle of +Waterloo turned on an amazingly +slight contingency, namely, the closing +of a gate or door of wood in +the wall of a building. This fact +was conclusively brought out when, +years after the battle, an English +clergyman, Rev. Mr. Narcross of +Framlingham, died and left in his +will the sum of five hundred pounds +simply "to the bravest man in England." +The executors of the estate +were completely nonplussed. Who<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_139" id="Page_139">[Pg 139]</a></span> +was the bravest man in England? +Doubtless many would have come forward +gladly to claim the distinction +and the legacy, but who was worthy +of them? In their trouble, the executors +applied to the Duke of Wellington +for an answer to the question.</p> + +<p>The Iron Duke was not a man to +be beaten by any question whatsoever, +least of all by a military one. +He went back a little in his recollections—until +he came to the battle of +Waterloo. Then he wrote to the executors +of the Framlingham parson +that that battle was the greatest that +had been fought in recent times. +"The success of it," he went on to +say, "turned upon the closing of the +gates of Hugomont; these gates were +closed in the most courageous manner, +at the very nick of time, by Sir +James Macdonnel; and he is the man +to whom you should pay the five +hundred pounds."</p> + +<p>Thereupon the executors went to +Sir James with the money; but he<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_140" id="Page_140">[Pg 140]</a></span> +said to them: "I cannot claim all +the credit of closing the gates of +Hugomont. My sergeant, John +Graham, seeing with me the importance +of the step, rushed forward to +help me; and by your leave I will +share the legacy with him." The request +was granted, and the fact was +to this extent judicially established +that Sir James Macdonnel and John +Graham had closed the gates of Hugomont +Castle, thereby settling the +issue of the battle and the fate of +Europe.</p> + +<p>Let us see what events hinged upon +this act, and how they depended on +it. The army with which the great +Napoleon faced the miscellaneous assortment +of British, Prussians, Hanoverians, +Dutch and Belgians at +Waterloo was smaller than that of +the Allies, but vastly more efficient +as a whole. Most of the troops of +the Allies were raw, and some of +them were poor stuff indeed. Napoleon's +soldiers were hardened,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_141" id="Page_141">[Pg 141]</a></span> +practiced, brave and splendidly commanded.</p> + +<p>Napoleon had forced the Allies +back at Quatre Bras. He captured +their position at La Haye Sainte. He +perceived that the strategic key to +the whole field of battle was the hill +crowned by the old stone <i>château</i> of +Hugomont. If that could be taken, +Napoleon would be able to attack +and turn Wellington's right flank. +That accomplished, a junction of +Blücher and his Prussians with the +English would be prevented; the +forces of the Allies would be split in +two, and Napoleon would in all probability +defeat them in detail, according +to his time-honored method. The +emperor could easily have finished off +the Austrians in their turn, as he +planned to do; and the combined +European attempt to oust him would +have been frustrated. Thus the Corsican +would have been, probably for +so long as he lived, the master of +France at the least, even if the checks<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_142" id="Page_142">[Pg 142]</a></span> +he had already received had restricted +his mastery of the rest of the continent.</p> + +<p>Knowing well that upon this cast +his fate was staked, Napoleon hurled +his best troops, under Prince Jerome, +against the little old <i>château</i> on the +hill. Again and again they assaulted +it. Twelve thousand men were +launched against the half-dilapidated +castle, which had been pierced with +loopholes for the British riflemen. +And now and here came the crucial +incident whose importance was rated +so high by Wellington. At a moment +when the chief defence of the +<i>château</i> was entrusted to the Coldstream +Guards, under Colonel James +Macdonnel, the French were within a +hair's breadth of taking it. They +pushed against the gate of the castle, +and had actually forced it open, when +the Coldstream Guards charged out +with their bayonets, forcing the advance +rank of the French back a little.</p> + +<p>But the French were pouring up,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_143" id="Page_143">[Pg 143]</a></span> +and could no longer be held back at +the point of the bayonet. It was at +this instant, when a slight leeway +had been gained, that Colonel Macdonnel +and Sergeant Graham, under +a galling fire from the French, stepped +forward and with their own hands +closed the <i>château</i> gates, barricaded +them, and thus enabled the troops to +resume their fierce rifle fire from +within.</p> + +<p>After this the French made many +more assaults on the heavy gates, +but could not force them open again. +Wellington meanwhile commanded a +general advance, following a fresh +repulse of the French onset; and the +French line was thrown into confusion. +He knew that Blücher was now +at hand—it was by this time half-past +seven in the evening—to support +him. Blücher, indeed, arrived, +and attacked and crushed the broken +French right, forcing Napoleon to retreat +in disorder. Thus was completed +the victory which the heroic<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_144" id="Page_144">[Pg 144]</a></span> +defence of Hugomont had made possible.</p> + +<p>The crushing of the British right +wing on this occasion, had Napoleon +been able thus to effect it, would +have reversed a vast deal of history. +It is not necessary to take an extreme +view of the situation to realize this. +On the immediate field, the British, +Dutch and Hanoverians must have +been forced back upon Brussels, and +Blücher would have been unable to +maintain a front against the French. +Even if the remnants of the allied +armies had escaped, and made another +stand, Napoleon must instantly +have regained a degree of prestige +and position that would have enabled +him to consolidate his power at home +and make excellent terms abroad. +Even after Leipsic, when he had +seemed to be utterly beaten, the +powers had been willing to give +him France's "natural frontiers"—namely, +the Rhine, the Alps and the +Pyrenees.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_145" id="Page_145">[Pg 145]</a></span>It is likely that Leipsic and Elba +had already taught the emperor wisdom +which would have deterred him +from attempting to carry the boundaries +of his domain once more to the +Baltic, or to parcel out the rest of +Europe among his relatives and dependents. +But within the frontiers +I have named, and west of the Rhine, +he must have remained impregnable; +and all the momentous consequences +which resulted from his defeat must +have been thwarted and turned aside.</p> + +<p>Out of the victory of the Allies at +Waterloo came, first, the banishment +and early death of Napoleon Bonaparte; +the placing of Louis XVIII +on the throne of France; the complete +subduing of the Revolution; +the creation of the joint kingdom of +Holland and Belgium (which meant +the modern intensely industrialized +Belgian state, and Leopold, and the +Congo); the aggrandizement and +lasting leadership of Prussia in Germany; +the foundation of the modern<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_146" id="Page_146">[Pg 146]</a></span> +Italy through, the annexation of the +Genoese republic to the Piedmont +kingdom; the enlargement of Switzerland +by three cantons taken from +France; the taking of Norway from +Denmark and its bestowal upon +Sweden; the absorption of what was +left of Poland by Russia—and some +other reparceling of territory in an +arbitrary sense which has nevertheless +for the most part endured. There +is scarcely a political articulation in +Europe to-day which does not date +from Waterloo; new tendencies still +operate which had their inception +then!</p> + +<p>Indirectly the consequences were +momentous. The aggrandizement of +Prussia prepared the way for the unification +of Germany and the gradual +atrophy of Austria as a German state. +As I have said, the enlargement of +Piedmont foretokened a united Italy, +and built up another power which has +contributed to the enforced shrinkage +of Austria. The two great constructive<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_147" id="Page_147">[Pg 147]</a></span> +European statesmen of the +nineteenth century, Bismarck and +Cavour, were both the children of +Waterloo.</p> + +<p>All these tendencies might have +been working just the other way if +Colonel Macdonnel had not succeeded +in closing the <i>château</i> gates! Yet +more still was in store. Moral and +intellectual consequences of greater +moment, perhaps, than the political +results, impended. The victory of +the Allies was followed by a period +of severe repression of popular tendencies +in Europe. The Holy Alliance, +which became a league of Continental +monarchs against liberal +ideas, was a direct consequence. It +inaugurated reaction everywhere. +And reaction bred in its turn new +and insidious radicalisms. Lassalle, +Marx, St. Simon, and Fourier, Socialists, +and Bakunin and Proudhon, first +of the Anarchists, were the offspring +of the Holy Alliance, nurtured in the +dark corners of Repression's jail.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_148" id="Page_148">[Pg 148]</a></span>The course of events in Europe +would have been far otherwise indeed +if Napoleon's veterans, forcing +their way into Hugomont and splitting +the British strength in two, had +prepared the way for a long lease of +the power of that adroit and calculating +master, who knew so well how +to meet popular demands and still +hold his personal sway. In its practical +expression, his system was liberal. +Every peasant proprietor in +France to-day holds his acres by virtue +of Napoleonic legislation.</p> + +<p>That does not mean that all would +have been good in France; far from +that. A strange falsity, a theatric +insincerity, lay beneath all the Napoleonic +sentiments and ideals. These +qualities color the thought of France +still. Will she ever be able to escape +them? These tendencies would have +been many times more powerful if Napoleon +had entrenched himself upon +the throne. More than that, they must +have passed to other countries. The<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_149" id="Page_149">[Pg 149]</a></span> +shadow of his eagles might lie athwart +even our America, his insidious ideas +expressing themselves in our politics +and our intellectual and moral life, +if that moment's vast contingency +had gone Napoleon's way at Waterloo.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_150" id="Page_150">[Pg 150]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER XVII</h2> + +<h3>IF ABRAHAM LINCOLN'S FATHER HAD<br /> +MOVED SOUTHWARD, NOT<br /> +NORTHWARD</h3> + + +<p>The two sections in the Civil +War in America were led by +two men, Abraham Lincoln and Jefferson +Davis, the one President of +the United States and the other President +of the Confederate States, who +were born within about one hundred +miles of each other in the State of +Kentucky, and within nine months of +each other in point of time. For it +was in June, 1808, that Jefferson +Davis first saw the light in Christian +County, Kentucky, and in February, +1809, that Abraham Lincoln was born +in Hardin County, in the same State.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_151" id="Page_151">[Pg 151]</a></span>Samuel Davis, the father of Jefferson +Davis, and Thomas Lincoln, the +father of Abraham Lincoln, were men +of the same English-American origin, +and the families were originally of +virtually the same class, though +Thomas Lincoln, doubtless as the result +of the death of his father at the +hands of the Indians, when Thomas +was a child, had fallen somewhat in +the social scale. Both men became +dissatisfied with material conditions +in Kentucky at about the same time, +and both emigrated with their families. +But Samuel Davis went southward +into Mississippi, while Thomas +Lincoln went northward into Indiana.</p> + +<p>That the sons of both these Kentuckians +had in them the fire of +genius, the history of their country +has abundantly proved. Each was +destined by the compelling force of +his character and gifts to play a great +part. Like all other men, each was +molded by his environment. The illiterate +Thomas Lincoln was credited<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_152" id="Page_152">[Pg 152]</a></span> +by his immortal son with the intention, +in emigrating, to escape from a +slave State. But is it not probable +that the son, deeply preoccupied as he +was in later years with the subject of +the emancipation of the slaves, had +projected backward, by a psychologic +habit common to all mankind, this +idea from his own mind into that of +his father? In all probability no +other motive than that of accident +or convenience—for Thomas Lincoln +was a poor and rather "shiftless" +man—impelled Abraham Lincoln's +father to go to Indiana instead of following +the trail which so many of +the more enterprising Kentuckians +were taking to Mississippi or Louisiana. +It was to that section that +enterprise beckoned, for agriculture +was carried on in the Southwest upon +a large scale, and broader plantations +were open to the adventuring settler. +Indiana, on the other hand, was a +"poor man's country."</p> + +<p>What if Thomas Lincoln had possessed<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_153" id="Page_153">[Pg 153]</a></span> +a little more energy, and a few +more shillings, and had gone to Mississippi +instead of to Indiana and +afterwards to Illinois? What if he +had become a plantation and slave +owner, and had thus subjected his boy +Abraham to the overmastering influence +of a southern environment? +So far as I can recall, Mississippi +never produced an anti-slavery man.</p> + +<p>In this event, there would have +been for the national cause, for the +saving of the Union, for the emancipation +of the slaves, no Abraham Lincoln. +On the other hand, the tremendous +power and patience of Lincoln's +nature, the majesty and greatness of +his character, the resources of his intellect, +would in all likelihood have +been added to the sum of the statesmanship +which was enlisted on the +Southern side.</p> + +<p>It is even conceivable that Lincoln, +rather than Davis, would have been +the president of the Southern Confederacy. +Only a combination of the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_154" id="Page_154">[Pg 154]</a></span> +most extraordinary circumstances +made him the nominee of the Republican +party for the presidency in +1860. If he had been the leading +statesman and politician of Mississippi, +his path to the Confederate +presidency, as the success of Davis +proved, would have been comparatively +easy.</p> + +<p>Without Lincoln, the anti-slavery +agitation would have gone on just +the same. The Republican party +would have been constituted just the +same. Everything up to the 18th day +of May, 1860, when Lincoln was nominated +for president at the Wigwam in +Chicago, would have gone on just the +same. But lacking Lincoln, what a +world of things afterward would have +happened differently!</p> + +<p>In the first place, it is probable +that Seward would have been nominated +for president. Very likely he +would not have been elected; and as +it was Lincoln who "smoked out" +Douglas, it is probable that Douglas<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_155" id="Page_155">[Pg 155]</a></span> +would have prevailed over all other +Democratic candidates and been +nominated at Charleston and elected +president.</p> + +<p>In which case there would have +been no secession, and very likely +no war, either at that time or later. +Slavery would have become intrenched, +to yield, perhaps, in the +end only to economic influences, the +operation of which had already +doomed it.</p> + +<p>But if Seward had been nominated +and elected, secession would have +taken place and war would have resulted. +The sort of leader that the +Union would have had in Seward +may be inferred with perfect certainty +from the famous, or rather infamous, +proposition entitled, "Some +Thoughts for the President's Consideration," +which Seward solemnly +laid before Lincoln less than a month +after his inauguration. This extraordinary +document, one of the most +senseless and wicked programmes<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_156" id="Page_156">[Pg 156]</a></span> +ever prepared by a man of state, advocated +a change of the national issue +from slavery to a foreign war; it advised +that war be at once declared +against France and Spain, and "explanations +demanded" from Great +Britain and Russia! In order that +this, brilliant programme might be +carried out successfully, Seward suggested +that he himself be made Dictator!</p> + +<p>This scheme, I repeat, illustrated +the sort of alternative material that +we should have had, lacking Lincoln. +Chase, indeed, who was also a leading +candidate for the presidency, +would have been wiser. But in no +position that he ever held, after 1860, +did Chase bring forth any of the +fruits of genius. Cameron, of Pennsylvania, +was a greater man, but +did not command general support. +Neither did Edward Bates, of Missouri, +also a western candidate for +the presidency.</p> + +<p>The great soldiers who finally triumphed<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_157" id="Page_157">[Pg 157]</a></span> +in the field as the instruments +of Lincoln's policy and fought +their way to victory for the Union—Grant, +Sherman, Thomas, Meade, +Sheridan—would have been ranged +on the Northern side just the same +whether Lincoln or another had been +at the head of affairs. But it is +doubtful whether another president +would have found them out. Lincoln +made his own grave mistakes regarding +men. But he put forward +no general because that general was +<i>his man</i>. He observed and waited. +A man of the people himself, grandly +simple, he somehow nosed out the +men of the same type. All the generals +who proved great were his discoveries.</p> + +<p>The structure of Lincoln's achievements +was not, however, the result of +negative circumstances. It did not +rise because things were not just so +and so. It was a positive thing—the +result of the active operations of a +powerful genius, which the people<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_158" id="Page_158">[Pg 158]</a></span> +recognized before the politicians and +the writers did. In the people's mind, +the war was "Old Abe's" war. It +was Old Abe who stood at the helm. +Congress did not know it, but it was +really working Lincoln's will. The +cabinet did not always know it, but +it was Lincoln who really had his +way. He kept his own counsel. He +carried out his plans.</p> + +<p>The people were right. It was Old +Abe who was doing things. And +without him the most important +things would have gone undone. He +was an original creation—as Lowell +said, a "new birth of our new soil, +the first American." Nature, for +him, threw aside her old-world molds,</p> + +<div class="poem"> +<div class="stanza"> +<span class="i0">And, choosing sweet clay from the breast<br /></span> +<span class="i0">Of the unexhausted West,<br /></span> +<span class="i0">With stuff untainted shaped a hero new,<br /></span> +<span class="i0">Wise, steadfast in the strength of God, and true.<br /></span> +</div></div> + +<p>Yet what could be clearer than +that Abraham Lincoln, who by birth +and inheritance was of the South,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_159" id="Page_159">[Pg 159]</a></span> +not the West, might have turned his +strength to the support of quite a +different cause if the accident of fate +had sent him southward, not northward, +in his childhood?</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_160" id="Page_160">[Pg 160]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER XVIII</h2> + +<h3>IF SKIPPER JENNINGS HAD NOT RESCUED<br /> +CERTAIN SHIPWRECKED JAPANESE</h3> + + +<p>Toward the end of the year +1850, Captain Jennings, of the +American bark <i>Auckland</i>, trading in +Asiatic waters, picked up the shipwrecked +crew of a Japanese fishing +vessel, somewhere off the coast of +Japan. The captain was then bound +for the new port of San Francisco, +which the California gold-diggings +had already made an important city. +He continued on his course, and in +due time—that is to say, very early +in the year 1851—landed at San Francisco +with his party of refugees.</p> + +<p>Here the bright little Orientals were<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_161" id="Page_161">[Pg 161]</a></span> +more than a nine days' wonder. Few +Americans had ever before seen a +Japanese. That country was at the +time more a "hermit nation" than +Korea herself. Whalers and other +sailors who had been wrecked on the +Japanese coast had been put to cruel +deaths. No white men except the +Dutch had been permitted to trade +with any of the Japanese cities, and +the Dutch trade had fallen into decay. +Japan seemed as far from our +lives as is the planet Mars.</p> + +<p>But the Japanese whom Captain +Jennings had humanely rescued were +kindly treated by him, and on the +homeward voyage they had endeared +themselves to him and his crew. He +landed them at San Francisco with +very favorable reports of their character, +conduct and intelligence. The +free-handed miners of that town +wanted nothing better than somebody +or something to lionize. So for a considerable +time the shipwrecked Japanese +had the best of everything in<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_162" id="Page_162">[Pg 162]</a></span> +San Francisco, until an opportunity +arose to send them, fat and happy, +back to their own country.</p> + +<p>A full account of the incident and +of the refugees was published in one +of the San Francisco papers. It fell +into the hands of just one man who +was capable of perceiving the momentous +possibilities that lay in the +occurrence. This man was a commodore +in the United States navy; and +his name was not Perry, as the reader +may at first surmise, but John H. +Aulick. He was a Virginian, then in +his sixty-second year; he had had a +long and very honorable service, and +was keen and statesmanlike in his +ideas.</p> + +<p>What Commodore Aulick saw in the +incident was this: The kind and +friendly reception of the Japanese +waifs in America, contrasted with the +ordinary treatment of white refugees +in Japan, might be taken advantage +of to open friendly relations with +Japan. To effect this result, a naval<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_163" id="Page_163">[Pg 163]</a></span> +expedition should be sent to Japan. +If properly conducted, the expedition +not only might secure friendly treatment +of American whalers on the +Japanese coasts, but might open up +trade relations with the country which +would be highly profitable.</p> + +<p>Filled with his idea, which was +really a great one, Commodore Aulick +obtained permission to lay it before +the secretary of state, who was none +other than Daniel Webster. He had +an interview with Mr. Webster at +Washington on the 9th day of May, +1851.</p> + +<p>Webster saw the point at once. At +his instance, President Fillmore ordered +the navy department to prepare +a small expedition for the voyage +to Japan; and when the ships +were ready—they were headed by the +sloop of war <i>Mississippi</i>—Commodore +Aulick was put in command. He actually +sailed on the voyage; but he +was entrusted with the task of taking +the Brazilian minister as far as Rio<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_164" id="Page_164">[Pg 164]</a></span> +Janeiro on the way, and some trouble +having arisen with this functionary +for which Commodore Aulick was +blamed, he was superseded in command +of the expedition by Commodore +Matthew Calbraith Perry, in +command of the <i>Hartford</i>.</p> + +<p>It was Perry, therefore, who +"opened up Japan." His name will +be associated, as long as the story of +the two nations is told, with the event. +But it was Aulick's idea, not Perry's; +and it all hung upon the luck which +those Japanese fishermen, waifs upon +a boundless ocean, had in being picked +up by a generous Yankee skipper, and +in finding their way to so wholehearted +and so hospitable a city toward +"Mongolian" wanderers as San +Francisco was—then!</p> + +<p>If this incident had not suggested +and been followed by the Aulick-Perry +expedition, what then? Russian authorities +have claimed that Russia was +preparing a similar expedition at the +time when Secretary Webster—"too<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_165" id="Page_165">[Pg 165]</a></span> +zealous," according to their view—sent the +United States ships on their +way. There is good reason to believe +that the Russian government would +have been slow in making such an infinitely +clever move as the Perry expedition +constituted. Yet if the +United States had not taken the step, +Russia would have stood next in the +line of logical inheritance to the idea. +And if Japan had been opened under +Russian auspices, its doors, instead +of standing open toward the East, +and consequently toward <i>our</i> West, +would have opened toward the Asiatic +continental West, which would have +meant toward St. Petersburg.</p> + +<p>If the Japanese had, under Russian +initiative, adopted the material adjuncts +of western civilization, as they +finally did under ours, that civilization +would have taken on a distinctly +Muscovite color. The Japanese would +never, indeed, have been able, under +such auspices, to organize an effective +resistance to Russian arms, for long<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_166" id="Page_166">[Pg 166]</a></span> +before they had acquired the requisite +training they must have been held +firmly in the grip of the Russian military +system.</p> + +<p>That is to say, Japan would have +been, step by step, annexed to the +Russian empire. The Russo-Japanese +war would never have been, since +there would have been neither hope +nor occasion for it. Most of the rich +fruits of Japanese art and industry +would have drifted toward Russia. +The Russian empire would have been +enormously enriched by the Japanese +trade, and the importance of that +empire immensely magnified in the +history of our epoch. A reflex orientalizing +influence would have rolled +over Russia itself, and the course of +Russian internal development altered +in a degree now almost incalculable.</p> + +<p>If Russia had not been reasonably +prompt to take the step, the eyes of +British statesmen must sooner or +later have been opened to the opportunity. +The method by which British<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_167" id="Page_167">[Pg 167]</a></span> +intervention proceeds in Asiatic countries +is well known. It has always +had but slight regard for native sovereignty, +no matter how high the +state of social or artistic or intellectual +development on the part of the +native races affected. British administrators, +or, if Japan had retained +its nominal sovereignty, British "residents" +or agents, would really have +governed the country through the +Tycoon or the Mikado, or both—preferably +the Tycoon, for he was a +military ruler, and affairs could have +been handled more readily through +him.</p> + +<p>Events in Japan must have anticipated +the subsequent history of +Egypt, on a much more magnificent +scale. Again, though there would +have been a readier entrance for +American and European trade than +in the case of Russian intervention, +the best of everything Japanese would +certainly have gone to England. And +once again, the free, independent,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_168" id="Page_168">[Pg 168]</a></span> +powerful, masterful Japanese empire +of the present day, thrilling with a +new life in which all the civilization +of the Occident is made the handmaid +of an ancient and undaunted Asiatic +people, would not have been.</p> + +<p>In the unlikely event that the Japanese, +in default of Perry's expedition, +had been left quite alone for +another generation or two, their case +would not have been better in the +long run. They would simply have +missed the chance they got. Left a +"hermit nation," they would sooner +or later have fallen under the influence +of one Western country or another, +and been so seriously retarded +in the race of civilization that they +could never have caught up.</p> + +<p>America was the only country that +could have opened to them the wonderful +career that they have had. +The high noon of the nineteenth century +was the golden moment for the +commencement of their development +along the line of Western civilization.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_169" id="Page_169">[Pg 169]</a></span> +If the hour had not struck then +for them it would not have struck at +all. Time, the helping hand, the protecting +influence of an unselfish friend +among the nations, and the golden +gift of destiny, were all represented +for Japan in the rescuing sails of +Skipper Jennings's bark, that lucky +day in the wide Pacific.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_170" id="Page_170">[Pg 170]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER XIX</h2> + +<h3>IF ORSINI'S BOMB HAD NOT FAILED TO<br /> +DESTROY NAPOLEON III</h3> + + +<p>Edward A. Freeman wrote, +after the fall of the second +Bonaparte empire: "The work of +Richelieu is utterly undone, the work +of Henry II and Louis XIV is partially +undone; the Rhine now neither +crosses nor waters a single rood of +French ground. As it was in the first +beginnings of northern European history, +so it is now; Germany lies on +both sides of the German river." +This was not by any means the whole +of the work wrought by that adventurer +on an imperial throne, Napoleon +III, through his disastrous war<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_171" id="Page_171">[Pg 171]</a></span> +against a united Germany. He accomplished +also the slaughter of +five hundred thousand men, and the +impoverishment of millions. He +sounded the death knell of monarchical +adventuring in France, which was +indeed one good result of the Napoleonic +<i>débâcle</i>, but he also fastened +militarism, in the form of excessive +and progressively increasing peace +armaments, upon Europe, and magnified +public debts and taxation to the +limit of endurance.</p> + +<p>Every event here mentioned was a +direct development, not of Napoleon +III's original seizure of the French +throne, but of the final years, and the +eventual overthrow of his power—the +overthrow itself due to the +Franco-Prussian war. A single event, +criminal in its character, might have +prevented these results. That great +benefits sometimes eventuate from +men's crimes is no news, and no +longer a marvel, to the philosopher, +who, when good comes of evil, is apt<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_172" id="Page_172">[Pg 172]</a></span> +to repeat the words, "God moves in +a mysterious way his wonders to perform."</p> + +<p>The evil deed to which I have here +referred, which would have saved the +lives of five hundred thousand people +and left the river Rhine still +washing the confines of France, was +the aiming of Orsini's bomb on the +evening of the 14th of January, 1858. +This bomb was designed to take the +life of the emperor of the French. If +the attempt had succeeded, and Napoleon +had died as Alexander II of +Russia and King Humbert of Italy +afterward died, there would have +been no Franco-German war. The +throne of the baby Napoleon IV, who +was then less than two years old, very +likely would not have endured long; +but whether the third republic had +immediately arisen, or whether the +Orleans Bourbons had been restored +to the throne, it would have been +found easy to preserve the peace with +Prussia and Germany.</p> + +<p>For Napoleon III deliberat<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_173" id="Page_173">[Pg 173]</a></span>ely, and +with malignant ingenuity, provoked +war with Germany in 1870. There is +now no doubt that Bismarck desired +such a war. He afterward confessed +that he deceived the aged King William +in such a way that all chance +of peace at Ems was lost. But nevertheless +the provocation of Napoleon +was direct and deliberate.</p> + +<p>His grievance was that the Hohenzollern +prince, Leopold, had consented +to become a candidate for the vacant +throne of Spain. King William withdrew +Prince Leopold's candidature. +This really destroyed Napoleon's pretext +for bringing on a war. But +he desired a foreign war in order to +forestall revolutionary opposition at +home, which threatened to become +irresistible. Napoleon thereupon +caused his ambassador, Benedetti, insolently, +and in a manner quite unbearable, +to demand personally from +King William a declaration that no +Hohenzollern should ever be permitted<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_174" id="Page_174">[Pg 174]</a></span> +to become king of Spain. King +William treated this insolence as it +deserved, and France, thereupon, declared +war against Prussia.</p> + +<p>What followed, the world knows. +The consequences were tremendous. +France was maimed of Alsace and +Lorraine. Half a million of the +flower of the manhood of both nations +perished. France taxed herself +with five millions of francs of indemnity, +and though she has paid the +debt to Germany, she still owes it to +her own citizens. The difficulties of +French government and finance were +increased prodigiously and indefinitely +by the war and the empire's +delinquencies.</p> + +<p>And all as a result contingent upon +the failure of a criminal act! Felice +Orsini meant to kill Napoleon III, and +he and his two companions did kill +ten innocent persons, and did wound +one hundred and fifty others. Yet +the man for whom their bombs were +intended—the adventurer who had<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_175" id="Page_175">[Pg 175]</a></span> +once been their comrade as a member +of the Italian secret society, the Carbonari, +but who had afterward betrayed +the cause of Italian independence +by leading an army into the +peninsula and restoring the papal +power—escaped unharmed, to wind +the trail of his infamous conspiracies +through European politics for twelve +years longer. If the bomb had done +its direful work, one man, utterly +without character or conscience, +would have died, and five hundred +thousand men, mostly honest, good +and true, would have lived. As it +happened, the one man was spared, to +make a vast holocaust of human life +twelve years later.</p> + +<p>It is, indeed, strange that the averting +of a single crime may sometimes +precipitate a myriad of other crimes.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_176" id="Page_176">[Pg 176]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER XX</h2> + +<h3>IF PRESIDENT BUCHANAN HAD ENFORCED<br /> +THE LAW IN NOVEMBER, 1860</h3> + + +<p>Speaking of the lighting of the +fires of civil war in this country +in the years 1860 and 1861, Charles +Francis Adams said, in 1873, "One +single hour of the will displayed by +General Jackson would have stifled +the fire in its cradle." The metaphor +in the last phrase is peculiar, +and strangely Celtic for a Yankee, but +the history is true.</p> + +<p>Montgomery Blair expressed the +idea with greater plainness and vividness +in that same year, 1873, in these +words, "If we could have held Fort +Sumter, there never would have been<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_177" id="Page_177">[Pg 177]</a></span> +a drop of blood shed." Both these +remarks were made by men who had +been in some sense actors in the +events to which they referred, and +made after years of reflection upon +the circumstances.</p> + +<p>It does not seem to Americans of +the present generation that there was +ever a moment, after the election of +Abraham Lincoln, when the Civil +War could have been averted. It appears, +in retrospect, to have been absolutely +inevitable. Yet there was +certainly one moment when, if President +Buchanan had had the courage +to apply the general views which he +himself advanced in his annual message +to Congress of December 3, 1860, +and his special message of January 8, +1861, which explicitly denied the right +of secession, a halt might have been +called to the growing rebellion.</p> + +<p>The secession movement was at +first concentrated in the State of +South Carolina. That State, all +through the winter of 1860-1861, was<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_178" id="Page_178">[Pg 178]</a></span> +presenting to the rest of the South an +object lesson of successful nullification.</p> + +<p>In 1833 South Carolina had ordained +nullification, but its ordinance +was so instantly and heavily repressed +by President Andrew Jackson +that the State was absolutely unable +to carry it out, or to move hand +or foot. But now, in 1860, it did not +merely ordain nullification—it enacted +it. Every Federal judge, every +judicial servant, and nearly every +Federal official, in South Carolina, resigned, +and the nation was left without +an agent to enforce its laws, for +no new ones were sent in. The United +States authority in the State was at +an end, save for the custom house at +Charleston and Fort Moultrie in +Charleston harbor.</p> + +<p>As long as South Carolina was let +alone, her case plainly said to all the +other slave States, "You see we can +withdraw from the Union; we have +withdrawn from the Union; and the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_179" id="Page_179">[Pg 179]</a></span> +Union takes no step to keep us in; +you can do the same thing."</p> + +<p>At this time North Carolina and +Virginia were opposed to secession. +Governor Sam Houston, of Texas, +stood like a rock against it. Kentucky, +Maryland, Missouri, never seceded. +Other States were wavering. +A great deal depended on the degree +of success which South Carolina, the +leader in the revolt, might have. And +it was Buchanan who permitted South +Carolina's success to become apparently +complete, though in the message +to which I have referred the president +declared that secession was "wholly +inconsistent with the Constitution," +that "no human power could absolve +him (the president) from his duty to +enforce the laws," and that the danger +of national disruption was upon the +country. Buchanan, in his December +message, actually quoted Jackson's +solemn denunciation of the doctrine +that a State had a right to separate +itself from the Union.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_180" id="Page_180">[Pg 180]</a></span>But while he was making these terrible +admissions of his own duty, +what was Buchanan doing? Instead +of holding up the hands of the nation's +representatives in South Carolina, +he was weakening them. Instead +of strengthening the Federal +garrison in Charleston harbor, he permitted, +it to dwindle until it was +powerless to take a single step. Not +one act, indeed, did he perform, but +contented himself with calling on +Congress for legislation to meet the +emergency. And out of Congress, of +course, he could get nothing, for the +Southern representatives would vote +for no such legislation, and the Republican +members were bent upon +waiting until Lincoln, who had been +elected president, came in in March, +and the northern Democrats were +paralyzed with pusillanimity.</p> + +<p>So South Carolina went on proving +to the other slave States that it could +"go it alone." One after another +these other States seceded from the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_181" id="Page_181">[Pg 181]</a></span> +Union. Northern arsenals were +stripped of arms. Southern officers +went out of the army one by one, and +made ready to organize the army of +the new Confederacy which was forming +under the president's nose.</p> + +<p>It was a time for the strong arm, +and for quick, decisive, Jacksonian, +and not at all squeamish, action. But +no such action was taken. The golden +moment was lost, and when, three +months afterward, Lincoln came in +at last, war, with all its horrors, was +upon the country.</p> + +<p>If the young rebellion had been +truly nipped in the bud, as it might +have been, by a rigid enforcement, in +November and December, 1860, of +Federal judicial processes in South +Carolina; if the laws of the United +States had been enforced in that State +at the point of the bayonet, if need +be; if a Federal functionary, sustained +by an ample force of United +States troops, had torn South Carolina's +ordinance of secession into<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_182" id="Page_182">[Pg 182]</a></span> +shreds on the steps of the capitol at +Columbia, with no tender regard for +South Carolina's interpretation of the +Constitution, is it likely that South +Carolina's sister States would have +been so prompt at seceding?</p> + +<p>Very likely it might not have been +necessary to do any of these things. +If Buchanan had merely stood up +and said, as Jackson did in 1833, "I +shall enforce the laws of the United +States in spite of any and all resistance +that may be made," there might +well have been no more of secession +in 1860 or 1861 than there had been +of real nullification in 1833.</p> + +<p>And if this step had been taken, +and there had been no war, what +then? What about slavery? it may +be asked. Is it conceivable that +northern sentiment would have permitted +chattel slavery to continue? +Was not war inevitable on that main +question alone? Let us see. The sentiment +for absolute and sudden emancipation +was the product of the war.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_183" id="Page_183">[Pg 183]</a></span> +Lincoln was not an Abolitionist. The +Republican party was not Abolitionist.</p> + +<p>Without war, but with the Southern +States held within the Union, sentiment +in the North would have been +favorable to a compromise which +would have prevented the extension +of slavery; and events would surely +have brought about a gradual liberation +of the blacks in the South, as +events soon ended slavery in Brazil +and Cuba. The institution was +doomed, morally and economically.</p> + +<p>But there would have been no negro +suffrage. That was enforced by conditions +which grew out of the war. +The South would not have been impoverished, +and it could have afforded +a gradual education of the +negro in such a way as to fit him for +free industry, and, in a limited way, +for the exercise of the suffrage. +There would have been no disturbing +reversal of the position of the two +races, to be followed by a violent restoration<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_184" id="Page_184">[Pg 184]</a></span> +of white supremacy and an +accompanying development of inveterate +hostility between whites and +blacks. The sections would not have +drifted apart in industrial conditions +and social constitution as they did +under the influence of the war; we +should not have had, perhaps, a +money-mad North to counterbalance +a ruined, desolated, disheartened +South.</p> + +<p>And where, at Antietam, at Gettysburg, +at Fredericksburg, at Chattanooga, +and on many humbler fields, +the flags wave over the even ranks of +myriads of soldier graves, the mocking-birds +would sing in thickets which +the bullet's hiss and the shriek of the +shell had never profaned, while their +teeming populations of dead men +would either be alive to-day or entombed +among their loved ones after +lives of peaceful usefulness.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_185" id="Page_185">[Pg 185]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER XXI</h2> + +<h3>IF THE CONFEDERATES HAD MARCHED ON<br /> +WASHINGTON AFTER BULL RUN</h3> + + +<p>There have been a great many +attempts to excuse or minimize +the failure of General Joseph +E. Johnston to follow up the tremendous +Confederate victory won by his +second in command, General G. T. +Beauregard, at Bull Run, July 21, +1861. That the Federal army was +beaten literally to a pulp there can +be no doubt. General Irwin McDowell, +who commanded the Union +forces, officially reported, after the +battle, that all his troops were in +flight "in a state of utter disorganization." +"They could not," he<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_186" id="Page_186">[Pg 186]</a></span> +wired on July 22d, "be prepared for +action by to-morrow morning even +were they willing. The larger part of +the men are a confused mob, entirely +demoralized." They were actually +running away in such a state of panic +that they could not get away, for +commissary and ammunition wagons, +congressmen's and other spectators' +horses and carriages, artillery and +sutlers' wagons were blocking the +road, and panicstricken soldiers were +falling over one another. When General +McClellan came to take command +after McDowell had been superseded, +he reported this state of affairs: "I +found no army to command—a mere +collection of regiments cowering on +the banks of the Potomac, some perfectly +raw, others dispirited by defeat."</p> + +<p>To reach the spot where the beaten +raw recruits were thus cowering, +General Johnston and General Beauregard +had to advance only twenty +miles, over a road every foot of<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_187" id="Page_187">[Pg 187]</a></span> +which was well known to them. That +the Federal army was in ignominious +flight they were well aware, for they +reported it joyfully to the government +at Richmond. Why did they +settle down into utter inaction and +allow McClellan to fortify the capital +and organize, drill and inspire with +hope and confidence a great army?</p> + +<p>There are a good many "ifs" in +connection with the actual fighting +of the battle of Bull Run, but this +"if" that comes after it—if the elated +and triumphant Confederate army +had immediately advanced to the +Potomac, invested the intrenchments +at Arlington Heights and, very likely, +effected a crossing above or near the +Great Falls of the river, and flanked +the capital of the Union—is the greatest +and most interesting of them all.</p> + +<p>General Beauregard actually commanded +at the battle on the 21st, because +General Johnston, who ranked +him, had but just arrived on the +scene and was unfamiliar with the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_188" id="Page_188">[Pg 188]</a></span> +ground and the disposition of the +troops. But he, Johnston, became responsible +for the further prosecution +of the campaign, once the battle was +won. It was in large measure his +fault that the fruits of victory were +not reaped.</p> + +<p>The commonly accepted explanation +of the matter is that the Confederates +were "almost as much disorganized +by victory as the Federals +were by defeat;" that they had no +fresh troops and no cavalry with +which to pursue, and that Arlington +Heights were too well fortified to be +attacked.</p> + +<p>But General Beauregard, sore at the +attempt to rob him of the laurels of +victory, has been able to show that +all of the Confederate brigades of +Ewell, Holmes, D. R. Jones and Longstreet, +and two regiments of Bonham's +brigade, were perfectly fresh +and unharmed after the fight; that +Early's brigade had hardly been under +fire; that new regiments had<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_189" id="Page_189">[Pg 189]</a></span> +come up during the day; that the +fresh troops in all numbered at least +fifteen thousand; that more than half +the Confederate army, in fact, had not +been engaged—a very unusual proportion +after an important battle. +"The remaining forces, after a night's +rest," says Beauregard himself, +"would have been instantly reorganized +and found thoroughly safe to +join the advance."</p> + +<p>Apparently nothing but shame on +the Northern side, and an unwillingness +on the Southern side to discredit +their great generals, has prevented a +full acknowledgment of the fatal tactics +which prevented an advance on +the Potomac after Bull Run.</p> + +<p>Now let us see what would have resulted +from a Confederate investment +of Washington in the summer of 1861. +Federal troops had already been attacked +in the streets of Baltimore. +That city was preponderantly disloyal, +and had to be garrisoned with +Union troops. Missouri had not yet<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_190" id="Page_190">[Pg 190]</a></span> +been won to the Union. Maryland, +Delaware and Kentucky, all of which +were necessary to the maintenance of +the Northern position, were slave +States, and their loyalty was doubtful. +If the capital of the Union had +been taken, all these States, in spite +of their previous unwillingness to +join the secession movement, would +probably have been impelled by +strong self-interest to range themselves +on the side of the other slave +States; and the Confederacy would +have been strengthened by the addition +of at least four States.</p> + +<p>There was an important party +among the Confederates from the +western Southern States—it was led +by Postmaster-General John H. Reagan +and included General Albert Sidney +Johnston—who believed in advancing +at the very outset into Kentucky +and making the Ohio River the +first line of Southern defense. The +plan was rejected by Davis and his +advisers. It was an unfortunate rejection.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_191" id="Page_191">[Pg 191]</a></span> +The Confederacy was finally +beaten because it was flanked in the +west and cut in two at Vicksburg. +But if Washington had been captured +or invested after Bull Run, it +is certain that the Confederate line +would have been pushed to the Ohio, +and it would probably have been held +there. The advantage gained by McClellan +in West Virginia would have +been lost, for he would practically +have found himself within the Confederate +lines and would have been +compelled to withdraw into Pennsylvania.</p> + +<p>Even as matters were, the position +of the Union was highly precarious +all through the summer and autumn +of 1861. There were signs of a demand +for peace in the North. Lincoln's +own party was turning against +him. The sympathy of Europe was +rapidly passing over to the Confederacy. +But so long as Lincoln stood +firm in the White House and Congress +sat at the capital, "the government<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_192" id="Page_192">[Pg 192]</a></span> +at Washington still lived," +and the people felt it. The truce so +kindly, so inexplicably permitted by +Davis and Lee and Johnston enabled +McClellan to organize and drill a +great army, to fortify the capital, to +spread renewed confidence in the +North, and, in short, to establish a +fulcrum for future victory.</p> + +<p>This was not the last time that opportunity +knocked at the door of the +Confederacy. It knocked again, and +loudly, as will be shown in the next +chapter, the same year. Either event, +taken alone, appears decisive. For +as we contemplate the events of the +21st of July, 1861, it quite appears +as if the flag of two republics—three, +perhaps, and conceivably four—might +have been flying over this great +American domain to-day if Johnston +had pressed his advance down the +Warrenton turnpike early Monday +morning, July 22d. Wars, divisions, +European intrusion, retrogression and +darkness would have been America's<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_193" id="Page_193">[Pg 193]</a></span> +fate, instead of that imperial advance, +with liberty and union, which has +dazzled and heartened the whole +world.</p> + + + +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_194" id="Page_194">[Pg 194]</a></span></p> +<h2>CHAPTER XXII</h2> + +<h3>IF THE CONFEDERATE STATES HAD<br /> +PURCHASED THE EAST INDIA<br /> +COMPANY'S FLEET IN 1861</h3> + + +<p>In the preceding chapter I have +noted the disastrous consequences +of the rejection of John H. +Reagan's plan, urged at Montgomery +at the very foundation of the Confederacy, +for the prompt occupation +of the south bank of the Ohio River +as the advanced line of defense, and +the equally unfavorable result of the +failure of Johnston to press on to the +Potomac after the great success at +Manassas. Gettysburg was a pivotal +combat, also; for if Lee had been +supported by Stuart's cavalry on that<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_195" id="Page_195">[Pg 195]</a></span> +occasion, there is at least a possibility +that the war's tide might have been +turned then and there.</p> + +<p>But there was a narrower contingency +than either one of these. To a +positively decisive extent, the success +of the National forces in subjugating +the Southern States turned on +the sea power. The conquest of the +Confederacy was in fact a matter of +supreme difficulty as it was; and if +the South had possessed a respectable +navy, and had been able to keep its +ports open and steadily exchange its +cotton in Europe for the materials +and munitions of war, the conquest +would not have been possible at all.</p> + +<p>The chance for the establishment +of such a navy lay within the grasp +of the Confederate statesmen, and was +by them let slip. Neither they, nor +any one else at the time, realized how +easy the thing would have been.</p> + +<p>It is first necessary to explain in +what situation the National government +was, at the outset of the war,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_196" id="Page_196">[Pg 196]</a></span> +in the matter of a naval force. Nominally +the United States navy consisted +of ninety vessels, but of these +fifty were utterly obsolete and unusable +except as supply ships. Of the +other forty, twenty were in a state of +hopeless unreadiness. Several of the +best ships were in the remotest corners +of the world. The home squadron +was composed of twelve ships, of +which only seven were steamers! +Nearly fifty years after the invention +of steam navigation, the United States +depended principally upon sailing +vessels for its defense. Only three +trustworthy warships were left in +Northern waters for the defense of +such ports as New York, Boston and +Philadelphia.</p> + +<p>As between the North and the +South, the chance to wield the sea +power lay with the one of the two +rival governments which should first +put on the water even a very small +fleet of ironclad, steam-driven vessels. +The Confederacy proved afterward<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_197" id="Page_197">[Pg 197]</a></span> +what power could be exerted in +this direction with but one single +ironclad, when the <i>Merrimac</i> destroyed +or scattered all the ships in +Hampton Roads, for a moment threatened +Washington and the Northern +cities with ravage, and was checked +at last only by the almost providential +appearance of another ironclad, +Ericsson's little <i>Monitor</i>, on the +scene. And the <i>Alabama's</i> armor of +chains made her for a time almost +a match for the United States navy.</p> + +<p>By what means could the Confederacy +have forestalled the North in +the provision of a really effective +navy? The chance, as I have said, +was offered, and declined, with fatal +want of foresight. It lay in the ten +steamships of the English East India +Company, which in 1861 was winding +up its affairs. These ships were +offered to the Confederacy at a fair +valuation. They were very good vessels, +and capable of prompt armoring +in at least as effective a style as that<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_198" id="Page_198">[Pg 198]</a></span> +in which the <i>Alabama</i> was afterwards +armored. The East India Company +was prepared to make such terms as +the Confederate government could +have met.</p> + +<p>British outfitters were perfectly +willing to trust the Southern statesmen. +The ships could have been +armed in a few weeks; there was +nothing to prevent their entrance +into Southern ports, for the blockade +was not made effective until one year +after the war broke out. The <i>Otero</i>, +renamed by the Confederates the +<i>Florida</i>, had no difficulty in taking +on her men and guns in the Bahamas.</p> + +<p>Possessed of ten good steam vessels, +commanded by such men as +Maury, Maffitt of the <i>Florida</i>, and +Semmes of the <i>Alabama</i>, the Confederacy +could have quickly overcome +its lack of mechanics and workshops +by importation from Europe. It was +the command of the Mississippi, the +Cumberland and the Tennessee rivers +which "broke the back of the Confederacy";<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_199" id="Page_199">[Pg 199]</a></span> +and does any one imagine +that the wooden ships of Farragut +could have entered the Mississippi, +compelled the abandonment of New +Orleans, and secured the possession +of not only the seacoast but the inland +river waters which commanded +the Confederacy from the rear, if there +had been any good ships to resist +him?</p> + +<p>The start which these ten ships +would have given a Confederate navy +would have more than put the South +even with the North on the sea. It +must be remembered that up to 1862, +even as it was, the South could do better +in the courts and exchanges of +Europe than the Union could. Why? +Because the South had the cotton, +upon which the mills of Europe depended. +The continued chance to +market cotton would have saved the +situation for the South. <i>Alabamas</i> in +any requisite number would have issued +from British shipyards.</p> + +<p>As it was, several powerful rams<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_200" id="Page_200">[Pg 200]</a></span> +were under construction for the Confederacy +in 1861 and 1862 in the yards +of the Lairds. But the continued insistence +of Minister Adams on the +unlawfulness of this proceeding, +joined with the fact that the Confederates +had no recognizable navy to +back up their purchases, at last compelled +the British government to take +these rams over and add them to its +own sea power.</p> + +<p>President Jefferson Davis declined +the offer of the East India ships for +the apparent reason that the military +necessities of the Confederacy pressed +hard upon the financial resources of +the new government. Every member +of his government was quite thoroughly +convinced that the National +power could not successfully invade +the South, provided a strong army +were quickly put into the field. The +ready material for good soldiers was +much more abundant in the South +than in the North; nearly all Southern +men were horsemen, hunters,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_201" id="Page_201">[Pg 201]</a></span> +marksmen, out-of-door men. On the +other hand, the first levies from the +North were mostly city men, unaccustomed +to firearms, strangers to exposure, +flabby of physique. Manassas +amply illustrated the great superiority +as soldiers of the first comers from +the South over the first comers from +the North.</p> + +<p>The Confederate leaders counted +upon making permanent the advantage +which they were confident of +gaining in the field at the outset. To +purchase out of hand ten steamships, +from resources that were yet to be +created, and with the manhood of +seven States demanding to be armed, +looked, indeed, like madness. And +yet this was the very card which, if +played, would have saved the Confederacy's +game.</p> + +<p>Conceive for a moment the Union +navy debarred from entrance into the +James or any of the navigable waters +of Virginia, to support military +operations in the direction of Richmond.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_202" id="Page_202">[Pg 202]</a></span> +Conceive Wilmington, N. C., +which was an easily defensible port, +and which really remained open to +the blockade runners for almost two +years after the beginning of the war, +rendered a fairly safe point of departure +for European trade throughout +the war. Conceive the Mississippi, +from Cairo southward to its +mouth, continuously under the power +of the Confederacy, with a fleet of +river gunboats backed up by a Gulf +squadron. Does any one imagine that +in that case the North could have +made either any warlike or commercial +use of the Ohio, the Cumberland, +the Tennessee, or even the Mississippi +from Cairo up to St. Louis?</p> + +<p>Freed from the unceasing coast +menace and from the danger of being +cut in two along the rivers, the effectiveness +of the land forces would have +been more than doubled. Leaving out +of the account the possibility of offensive +operations against Washington +and the cities of the North, the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_203" id="Page_203">[Pg 203]</a></span> +defense of the seceded States could +have been made so secure that the +people of the North would have called +loudly for peace; the border slave +States would have cast in their lot +with the Confederacy, and England +and France would have openly sided +with the South; secession would have +triumphed definitely before the end +of the year 1863.</p> + +<p>With the English East India Company, +it was a case of "take our +ships or leave them." The South left +them, and with them it left its chance +for independence and for putting two +mediocre American republics in the +place where one great one, after that +decisive moment, was bound to stand +forever.</p> + +<p> </p> +<hr style="width: 65%;" /> +<p> </p> + +<h3>Transcriber's Note:</h3> +<h4>Obvious punctuation errors were corrected.</h4> + +<p> </p> +<p> </p> +<hr class="full" /> +<p>***END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE IFS OF HISTORY***</p> +<p>******* This file should be named 34086-h.txt or 34086-h.zip *******</p> +<p>This and all associated files of various formats will be found in:<br /> +<a href="http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/3/4/0/8/34086">http://www.gutenberg.org/3/4/0/8/34086</a></p> +<p>Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions +will be renamed.</p> + +<p>Creating the works from public domain print editions means that no +one owns a United States copyright in these works, so the Foundation +(and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United States without +permission and without paying copyright royalties. Special rules, +set forth in the General Terms of Use part of this license, apply to +copying and distributing Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works to +protect the PROJECT GUTENBERG-tm concept and trademark. Project +Gutenberg is a registered trademark, and may not be used if you +charge for the eBooks, unless you receive specific permission. If you +do not charge anything for copies of this eBook, complying with the +rules is very easy. You may use this eBook for nearly any purpose +such as creation of derivative works, reports, performances and +research. They may be modified and printed and given away--you may do +practically ANYTHING with public domain eBooks. Redistribution is +subject to the trademark license, especially commercial +redistribution.</p> + + + +<pre> +*** START: FULL LICENSE *** + +THE FULL PROJECT GUTENBERG LICENSE +PLEASE READ THIS BEFORE YOU DISTRIBUTE OR USE THIS WORK + +To protect the Project Gutenberg-tm mission of promoting the free +distribution of electronic works, by using or distributing this work +(or any other work associated in any way with the phrase "Project +Gutenberg"), you agree to comply with all the terms of the Full Project +Gutenberg-tm License (available with this file or online at +<a href="http://www.gutenberg.org/license">http://www.gutenberg.org/license)</a>. + + +Section 1. General Terms of Use and Redistributing Project Gutenberg-tm +electronic works + +1.A. By reading or using any part of this Project Gutenberg-tm +electronic work, you indicate that you have read, understand, agree to +and accept all the terms of this license and intellectual property +(trademark/copyright) agreement. If you do not agree to abide by all +the terms of this agreement, you must cease using and return or destroy +all copies of Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works in your possession. +If you paid a fee for obtaining a copy of or access to a Project +Gutenberg-tm electronic work and you do not agree to be bound by the +terms of this agreement, you may obtain a refund from the person or +entity to whom you paid the fee as set forth in paragraph 1.E.8. + +1.B. "Project Gutenberg" is a registered trademark. It may only be +used on or associated in any way with an electronic work by people who +agree to be bound by the terms of this agreement. There are a few +things that you can do with most Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works +even without complying with the full terms of this agreement. See +paragraph 1.C below. There are a lot of things you can do with Project +Gutenberg-tm electronic works if you follow the terms of this agreement +and help preserve free future access to Project Gutenberg-tm electronic +works. See paragraph 1.E below. + +1.C. The Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation ("the Foundation" +or PGLAF), owns a compilation copyright in the collection of Project +Gutenberg-tm electronic works. Nearly all the individual works in the +collection are in the public domain in the United States. If an +individual work is in the public domain in the United States and you are +located in the United States, we do not claim a right to prevent you from +copying, distributing, performing, displaying or creating derivative +works based on the work as long as all references to Project Gutenberg +are removed. Of course, we hope that you will support the Project +Gutenberg-tm mission of promoting free access to electronic works by +freely sharing Project Gutenberg-tm works in compliance with the terms of +this agreement for keeping the Project Gutenberg-tm name associated with +the work. You can easily comply with the terms of this agreement by +keeping this work in the same format with its attached full Project +Gutenberg-tm License when you share it without charge with others. + +1.D. The copyright laws of the place where you are located also govern +what you can do with this work. Copyright laws in most countries are in +a constant state of change. If you are outside the United States, check +the laws of your country in addition to the terms of this agreement +before downloading, copying, displaying, performing, distributing or +creating derivative works based on this work or any other Project +Gutenberg-tm work. The Foundation makes no representations concerning +the copyright status of any work in any country outside the United +States. + +1.E. Unless you have removed all references to Project Gutenberg: + +1.E.1. The following sentence, with active links to, or other immediate +access to, the full Project Gutenberg-tm License must appear prominently +whenever any copy of a Project Gutenberg-tm work (any work on which the +phrase "Project Gutenberg" appears, or with which the phrase "Project +Gutenberg" is associated) is accessed, displayed, performed, viewed, +copied or distributed: + +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + +1.E.2. If an individual Project Gutenberg-tm electronic work is derived +from the public domain (does not contain a notice indicating that it is +posted with permission of the copyright holder), the work can be copied +and distributed to anyone in the United States without paying any fees +or charges. If you are redistributing or providing access to a work +with the phrase "Project Gutenberg" associated with or appearing on the +work, you must comply either with the requirements of paragraphs 1.E.1 +through 1.E.7 or obtain permission for the use of the work and the +Project Gutenberg-tm trademark as set forth in paragraphs 1.E.8 or +1.E.9. + +1.E.3. If an individual Project Gutenberg-tm electronic work is posted +with the permission of the copyright holder, your use and distribution +must comply with both paragraphs 1.E.1 through 1.E.7 and any additional +terms imposed by the copyright holder. Additional terms will be linked +to the Project Gutenberg-tm License for all works posted with the +permission of the copyright holder found at the beginning of this work. + +1.E.4. Do not unlink or detach or remove the full Project Gutenberg-tm +License terms from this work, or any files containing a part of this +work or any other work associated with Project Gutenberg-tm. + +1.E.5. Do not copy, display, perform, distribute or redistribute this +electronic work, or any part of this electronic work, without +prominently displaying the sentence set forth in paragraph 1.E.1 with +active links or immediate access to the full terms of the Project +Gutenberg-tm License. + +1.E.6. You may convert to and distribute this work in any binary, +compressed, marked up, nonproprietary or proprietary form, including any +word processing or hypertext form. However, if you provide access to or +distribute copies of a Project Gutenberg-tm work in a format other than +"Plain Vanilla ASCII" or other format used in the official version +posted on the official Project Gutenberg-tm web site (www.gutenberg.org), +you must, at no additional cost, fee or expense to the user, provide a +copy, a means of exporting a copy, or a means of obtaining a copy upon +request, of the work in its original "Plain Vanilla ASCII" or other +form. Any alternate format must include the full Project Gutenberg-tm +License as specified in paragraph 1.E.1. + +1.E.7. Do not charge a fee for access to, viewing, displaying, +performing, copying or distributing any Project Gutenberg-tm works +unless you comply with paragraph 1.E.8 or 1.E.9. + +1.E.8. You may charge a reasonable fee for copies of or providing +access to or distributing Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works provided +that + +- You pay a royalty fee of 20% of the gross profits you derive from + the use of Project Gutenberg-tm works calculated using the method + you already use to calculate your applicable taxes. The fee is + owed to the owner of the Project Gutenberg-tm trademark, but he + has agreed to donate royalties under this paragraph to the + Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation. Royalty payments + must be paid within 60 days following each date on which you + prepare (or are legally required to prepare) your periodic tax + returns. Royalty payments should be clearly marked as such and + sent to the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation at the + address specified in Section 4, "Information about donations to + the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation." + +- You provide a full refund of any money paid by a user who notifies + you in writing (or by e-mail) within 30 days of receipt that s/he + does not agree to the terms of the full Project Gutenberg-tm + License. You must require such a user to return or + destroy all copies of the works possessed in a physical medium + and discontinue all use of and all access to other copies of + Project Gutenberg-tm works. + +- You provide, in accordance with paragraph 1.F.3, a full refund of any + money paid for a work or a replacement copy, if a defect in the + electronic work is discovered and reported to you within 90 days + of receipt of the work. + +- You comply with all other terms of this agreement for free + distribution of Project Gutenberg-tm works. + +1.E.9. If you wish to charge a fee or distribute a Project Gutenberg-tm +electronic work or group of works on different terms than are set +forth in this agreement, you must obtain permission in writing from +both the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation and Michael +Hart, the owner of the Project Gutenberg-tm trademark. Contact the +Foundation as set forth in Section 3 below. + +1.F. + +1.F.1. Project Gutenberg volunteers and employees expend considerable +effort to identify, do copyright research on, transcribe and proofread +public domain works in creating the Project Gutenberg-tm +collection. Despite these efforts, Project Gutenberg-tm electronic +works, and the medium on which they may be stored, may contain +"Defects," such as, but not limited to, incomplete, inaccurate or +corrupt data, transcription errors, a copyright or other intellectual +property infringement, a defective or damaged disk or other medium, a +computer virus, or computer codes that damage or cannot be read by +your equipment. + +1.F.2. LIMITED WARRANTY, DISCLAIMER OF DAMAGES - Except for the "Right +of Replacement or Refund" described in paragraph 1.F.3, the Project +Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation, the owner of the Project +Gutenberg-tm trademark, and any other party distributing a Project +Gutenberg-tm electronic work under this agreement, disclaim all +liability to you for damages, costs and expenses, including legal +fees. YOU AGREE THAT YOU HAVE NO REMEDIES FOR NEGLIGENCE, STRICT +LIABILITY, BREACH OF WARRANTY OR BREACH OF CONTRACT EXCEPT THOSE +PROVIDED IN PARAGRAPH 1.F.3. YOU AGREE THAT THE FOUNDATION, THE +TRADEMARK OWNER, AND ANY DISTRIBUTOR UNDER THIS AGREEMENT WILL NOT BE +LIABLE TO YOU FOR ACTUAL, DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL, PUNITIVE OR +INCIDENTAL DAMAGES EVEN IF YOU GIVE NOTICE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH +DAMAGE. + +1.F.3. LIMITED RIGHT OF REPLACEMENT OR REFUND - If you discover a +defect in this electronic work within 90 days of receiving it, you can +receive a refund of the money (if any) you paid for it by sending a +written explanation to the person you received the work from. If you +received the work on a physical medium, you must return the medium with +your written explanation. The person or entity that provided you with +the defective work may elect to provide a replacement copy in lieu of a +refund. If you received the work electronically, the person or entity +providing it to you may choose to give you a second opportunity to +receive the work electronically in lieu of a refund. If the second copy +is also defective, you may demand a refund in writing without further +opportunities to fix the problem. + +1.F.4. Except for the limited right of replacement or refund set forth +in paragraph 1.F.3, this work is provided to you 'AS-IS,' WITH NO OTHER +WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO +WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTIBILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PURPOSE. + +1.F.5. Some states do not allow disclaimers of certain implied +warranties or the exclusion or limitation of certain types of damages. +If any disclaimer or limitation set forth in this agreement violates the +law of the state applicable to this agreement, the agreement shall be +interpreted to make the maximum disclaimer or limitation permitted by +the applicable state law. The invalidity or unenforceability of any +provision of this agreement shall not void the remaining provisions. + +1.F.6. INDEMNITY - You agree to indemnify and hold the Foundation, the +trademark owner, any agent or employee of the Foundation, anyone +providing copies of Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works in accordance +with this agreement, and any volunteers associated with the production, +promotion and distribution of Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works, +harmless from all liability, costs and expenses, including legal fees, +that arise directly or indirectly from any of the following which you do +or cause to occur: (a) distribution of this or any Project Gutenberg-tm +work, (b) alteration, modification, or additions or deletions to any +Project Gutenberg-tm work, and (c) any Defect you cause. + + +Section 2. Information about the Mission of Project Gutenberg-tm + +Project Gutenberg-tm is synonymous with the free distribution of +electronic works in formats readable by the widest variety of computers +including obsolete, old, middle-aged and new computers. It exists +because of the efforts of hundreds of volunteers and donations from +people in all walks of life. + +Volunteers and financial support to provide volunteers with the +assistance they need are critical to reaching Project Gutenberg-tm's +goals and ensuring that the Project Gutenberg-tm collection will +remain freely available for generations to come. In 2001, the Project +Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation was created to provide a secure +and permanent future for Project Gutenberg-tm and future generations. +To learn more about the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation +and how your efforts and donations can help, see Sections 3 and 4 +and the Foundation web page at http://www.gutenberg.org/fundraising/pglaf. + + +Section 3. Information about the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive +Foundation + +The Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation is a non profit +501(c)(3) educational corporation organized under the laws of the +state of Mississippi and granted tax exempt status by the Internal +Revenue Service. The Foundation's EIN or federal tax identification +number is 64-6221541. Contributions to the Project Gutenberg +Literary Archive Foundation are tax deductible to the full extent +permitted by U.S. federal laws and your state's laws. + +The Foundation's principal office is located at 4557 Melan Dr. S. +Fairbanks, AK, 99712., but its volunteers and employees are scattered +throughout numerous locations. Its business office is located at +809 North 1500 West, Salt Lake City, UT 84116, (801) 596-1887, email +business@pglaf.org. Email contact links and up to date contact +information can be found at the Foundation's web site and official +page at http://www.gutenberg.org/about/contact + +For additional contact information: + Dr. Gregory B. Newby + Chief Executive and Director + gbnewby@pglaf.org + +Section 4. Information about Donations to the Project Gutenberg +Literary Archive Foundation + +Project Gutenberg-tm depends upon and cannot survive without wide +spread public support and donations to carry out its mission of +increasing the number of public domain and licensed works that can be +freely distributed in machine readable form accessible by the widest +array of equipment including outdated equipment. Many small donations +($1 to $5,000) are particularly important to maintaining tax exempt +status with the IRS. + +The Foundation is committed to complying with the laws regulating +charities and charitable donations in all 50 states of the United +States. Compliance requirements are not uniform and it takes a +considerable effort, much paperwork and many fees to meet and keep up +with these requirements. We do not solicit donations in locations +where we have not received written confirmation of compliance. To +SEND DONATIONS or determine the status of compliance for any +particular state visit http://www.gutenberg.org/fundraising/pglaf + +While we cannot and do not solicit contributions from states where we +have not met the solicitation requirements, we know of no prohibition +against accepting unsolicited donations from donors in such states who +approach us with offers to donate. + +International donations are gratefully accepted, but we cannot make +any statements concerning tax treatment of donations received from +outside the United States. U.S. laws alone swamp our small staff. + +Please check the Project Gutenberg Web pages for current donation +methods and addresses. Donations are accepted in a number of other +ways including checks, online payments and credit card donations. +To donate, please visit: http://www.gutenberg.org/fundraising/donate + + +Section 5. General Information About Project Gutenberg-tm electronic +works. + +Professor Michael S. Hart is the originator of the Project Gutenberg-tm +concept of a library of electronic works that could be freely shared +with anyone. For thirty years, he produced and distributed Project +Gutenberg-tm eBooks with only a loose network of volunteer support. + +Project Gutenberg-tm eBooks are often created from several printed +editions, all of which are confirmed as Public Domain in the U.S. +unless a copyright notice is included. Thus, we do not necessarily +keep eBooks in compliance with any particular paper edition. + +Each eBook is in a subdirectory of the same number as the eBook's +eBook number, often in several formats including plain vanilla ASCII, +compressed (zipped), HTML and others. + +Corrected EDITIONS of our eBooks replace the old file and take over +the old filename and etext number. The replaced older file is renamed. +VERSIONS based on separate sources are treated as new eBooks receiving +new filenames and etext numbers. + +Most people start at our Web site which has the main PG search facility: + +<a href="http://www.gutenberg.org">http://www.gutenberg.org</a> + +This Web site includes information about Project Gutenberg-tm, +including how to make donations to the Project Gutenberg Literary +Archive Foundation, how to help produce our new eBooks, and how to +subscribe to our email newsletter to hear about new eBooks. + +EBooks posted prior to November 2003, with eBook numbers BELOW #10000, +are filed in directories based on their release date. If you want to +download any of these eBooks directly, rather than using the regular +search system you may utilize the following addresses and just +download by the etext year. + +<a href="http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/etext06/">http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/etext06/</a> + + (Or /etext 05, 04, 03, 02, 01, 00, 99, + 98, 97, 96, 95, 94, 93, 92, 92, 91 or 90) + +EBooks posted since November 2003, with etext numbers OVER #10000, are +filed in a different way. The year of a release date is no longer part +of the directory path. The path is based on the etext number (which is +identical to the filename). The path to the file is made up of single +digits corresponding to all but the last digit in the filename. For +example an eBook of filename 10234 would be found at: + +http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/1/0/2/3/10234 + +or filename 24689 would be found at: +http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/2/4/6/8/24689 + +An alternative method of locating eBooks: +<a href="http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/GUTINDEX.ALL">http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/GUTINDEX.ALL</a> + +*** END: FULL LICENSE *** +</pre> +</body> +</html> diff --git a/34086.txt b/34086.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..379b72e --- /dev/null +++ b/34086.txt @@ -0,0 +1,3348 @@ +The Project Gutenberg eBook, The Ifs of History, by Joseph Edgar Chamberlin + + +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + + + + + +Title: The Ifs of History + + +Author: Joseph Edgar Chamberlin + + + +Release Date: October 16, 2010 [eBook #34086] + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: ISO-646-US (US-ASCII) + + +***START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE IFS OF HISTORY*** + + +E-text prepared by Malcolm Farmer, Julia12000, and the Online Distributed +Proofreading Team (http://www.pgdp.net) from page images generously made +available by Internet Archive/Canadian Libraries +(http://www.archive.org/details/toronto) + + + +Note: Images of the original pages are available through + Internet Archive/Canadian Libraries. See + http://www.archive.org/details/ifsofhistory00chamuoft + + + + + +THE IFS OF HISTORY + +by + +JOSEPH EDGAR CHAMBERLIN + + + + + + + +Philadelphia +Henry Altemus Company + +Copyright, 1907, +by +Howard E. Altemus + + + + +CONTENTS + + + I. IF THEMISTOCLES HAD NOT BEATEN + ARISTIDES IN AN ATHENIAN ELECTION 13 + + II. IF THE MOORS HAD WON THE + BATTLE OF TOURS 21 + + III. IF KING ETHELRED OF ENGLAND + HAD NOT MARRIED THE NORMAN + EMMA 30 + + IV. IF COLUMBUS HAD KEPT HIS + STRAIGHT COURSE WESTWARD 37 + + V. IF QUEEN ELIZABETH OF ENGLAND + HAD LEFT A SON OR DAUGHTER 47 + + VI. IF THE PHILARMONIA HAD NOT + GIVEN CONCERTS AT VICENZA 56 + + VII. IF THE SPANISH ARMADA HAD + SAILED AT ITS APPOINTED TIME 64 + + VIII. IF CHAMPLAIN HAD TARRIED IN + PLYMOUTH BAY 71 + + IX. IF CHARLES II HAD ACCEPTED THE + KINGSHIP OF VIRGINIA 79 + + X. IF ADMIRAL PENN HAD PERSISTED IN + DISOWNING HIS SON WILLIAM 91 + + XI. IF THE BOY GEORGE WASHINGTON + HAD BECOME A BRITISH MIDSHIPMAN 99 + + XII. IF ALEXANDER HAMILTON HAD NOT + WRITTEN ABOUT THE HURRICANE 107 + + XIII. IF LAFAYETTE HAD HELD THE + FRENCH REIGN OF TERROR IN + CHECK 114 + + XIV. IF GILBERT LIVINGSTON HAD NOT + VOTED NEW YORK INTO THE + UNION 121 + + XV. IF THE PIRATE JEAN LAFITTE HAD + JOINED THE BRITISH AT NEW + ORLEANS 129 + + XVI. IF JAMES MACDONNEL HAD NOT + CLOSED THE GATES OF HUGOMONT + CASTLE 138 + + XVII. IF ABRAHAM LINCOLN'S FATHER + HAD MOVED SOUTHWARD, NOT + NORTHWARD 150 + + XVIII. IF SKIPPER JENNINGS HAD NOT RESCUED + CERTAIN SHIPWRECKED + JAPANESE 160 + + XIX. IF ORSINI'S BOMB HAD NOT FAILED + TO DESTROY NAPOLEON III 170 + + XX. IF PRESIDENT JAMES BUCHANAN HAD + ENFORCED THE LAW IN NOVEMBER, + 1860 176 + + XXI. IF THE CONFEDERATES HAD MARCHED + ON WASHINGTON AFTER BULL + RUN 185 + + XXII. IF THE CONFEDERATE STATES HAD + PURCHASED THE EAST INDIA COMPANY'S + FLEET IN 1861 194 + + + + +PREFACE + + +Whether or not we believe that events are consciously ordered before +their occurrence, we are compelled to admit the importance of +Contingency in human affairs. + +If we believe in such an orderly and predetermined arrangement, the +small circumstance upon which a great event may hinge becomes, in our +view, but the instrumentality by means of which the great plan is +operated. It by no means sets aside the vital influence of chance to +assume that "all chance is but direction which we cannot see." + +For instance, the believer in special providences regards as clearly +providential the flight of the flocks of birds which diverted the +course of Columbus from our shores to those of the West Indies; but it +is none the less true that this trivial circumstance caused the great +navigator to turn his prow. + +Those who, on the other hand, reject the idea of special providences, +and treat history as a sequence of occurrences emerging mechanically +from the relations of men with one another, must admit that causes +forever contend with causes, and that the nice balance of action and +reaction may sometimes be influenced radically by even so small a +circumstance as the cackling of the geese of Rome. It is true that the +evolutionist is apt to become a believer in necessity to an extent which +appears unlikely to the mind of the other. Events, in his view, inhere +in the nature and character of men, these in their turn being the result +of the physical circumstances that differentiate the nations. This view +seems at first to reduce the probability that accident will at any time +sensibly alter the course of affairs. + +But if we take historical action and reaction at their moments of +equilibrium, we see that the tide of affairs may sometimes appear to +follow the drift of a feather. Consider, for instance, the declaration +of the Duke of Wellington that the issue of the battle of Waterloo +turned upon the closing of the gates of Hugomont Castle by the hand of +one man. Wellington was certainly in a position to know if this was +true; and in the light of the tremendous events that depended upon the +trifling act, does it not appear that accident for one moment outweighed +in consequence any necessity that inhered in the character of the French +people or that of the nations arrayed against them at Waterloo? It may +be the function of Contingency to correct the overconfidence of the +evolutionist. + +At all events, we cannot dismiss the "if"; there is, as Touchstone says, +much virtue in it. + + J. E. C. + + + + +THE IFS OF HISTORY + + + + +CHAPTER I + +IF THEMISTOCLES HAD NOT BEATEN ARISTIDES IN AN ATHENIAN ELECTION + + +Mithra instead of Jesus! The western world Zoroastrian, not Christian! +The Persian Redeemer, always called the Light of the World in their +scriptures; the helper of Ahura-Mazda, the Almighty, in his warfare with +Ahriman, or Satan; the intercessor for men with the Creator; the Saviour +of humanity; he, Mithra, might have been the central person of the +dominant religion of Europe and modern times, but for certain +developments in Athenian politics in the years between 490 and 480 +B. C. For it is true that in the first three of four centuries of the +Christian era the western world seemed to hesitate between the religion +of Mithra and that of Christ; and if the Persians had completed the +conquest of Greece in the fifth century B. C., Mithra might have so +strengthened his hold upon Europe that the scale would have been turned +forever in his direction. + +What was it that enabled the Greeks, in the crucial test, the ultimate +contingency, to turn back the Persians and maintain their independence? +History says that it was the result of the battles of Marathon and +Salamis, in which the Greeks were triumphant over the Persians. This is +true only in a limited sense. The battle of Marathon, in 490 B. C., did +not save Greece, for the Persians came back again more powerful than +ever. At Thermopylae, Leonidas and his band died vainly, for the hosts of +Xerxes overran all Greece north of the isthmus of Corinth. They took +Athens, and burned the temples on the Acropolis. They were triumphant on +the land. + +But at Salamis, in the narrow channel between the horseshoe-shaped +island and the Attican mainland, Themistocles, on the 20th day of +September, 480 B. C., adroitly led the great Persian fleet of six +hundred vessels into a trap and defeated it in as heroic a fight as ever +the men of the West fought against the men of the East. Seated on his +"throne," or rather his silver-footed chair, on a hilltop overlooking +the scene, Xerxes, the master of the world, beheld the destruction of +his ships, one by one, by the leagued Greeks. When the battle was over +he saw that the escape of his victorious army from the mainland was +imperiled, and while there was yet time, he led his Persian horde in a +wild flight across his bridge of boats over the Hellespont. The field of +Plataea completed the check, and the Persian invasions of Europe were +over forever. + +What was it that enabled Themistocles to win this decisive victory for +Greece after disastrous defeats on land? Simply his skill in the +politics of Athens. Themistocles was a Hellenic imperialist. He was +opposed by Aristides, who was a very just man, and an anti-imperialist +and "mugwump." Greece was at that time terribly menaced by the Persian +power, and threatened with "Medization," or absorption into the Persian +nationality. Themistocles saw that the country's only chance lay in a +union of all the Hellenes, and in the construction of a navy worth the +name. Aristides was a better orator than he, and at first won against +him in the Athenian elections. The Greek spirit was innately hostile to +anything like centralization or imperialism. But when Aegina, which was +the leading Grecian maritime state, and had some good ships, turned +against Athens and defeated it on the sea, the Athenians' eyes began to +open. Themistocles pushed his plan for the construction of a fleet of +two hundred vessels and the addition of twenty new ships every year to +this navy. + +Squarely across his path stood Aristides, with his ridicule of the +attempt of little Athens to become a maritime power, and his warnings +against militarism. But Themistocles, by adroit politics, led the +Athenians to become sick of Aristides, and persuaded them to ostracize +or banish this just man. Aristides went to Aegina. Then Themistocles +rushed forward his plan of naval reform, and carried it through. The two +hundred ships were built, and not a moment too soon. It was this fleet, +brilliantly led by Themistocles and Eurybiades at Salamis, which +entangled the Persians in the narrow waters of Salamis and defeated +them, and saved Europe for the Europeans. + +The victory saved it also for Christ, by keeping alive the worship of +the half-gods of Greece and Rome until a whole-god came from Judaea. The +Persians, too, had a whole-god. Idea for idea, principle for principle, +tenet for tenet, dream for dream, all of later Judaism and all of +medieval Christianity, except the person and story of Jesus, was in the +religion of Persia. Not only the central ideas of formal Christianity, +but many of its dependent and related principles, are found in +Mithraism, which was the translation of the fundamental philosophic +ideas of Zoroastrianism into terms of human life. The parallel is so +striking that many thinkers regard Christianity merely as Mithraism +bodied forth in a story invented by, or at least told to and believed +by, a circle of primitive and uneducated zealots who knew nothing of the +history of the doctrines they were embracing. + +But notwithstanding the philosophic likeness, the acceptance of +Mithraism as it was held and practiced in Persia in Darius's time, +instead of Christianity, which may have been Mithraism first Judaized +and afterward Romanized, would have made a vast difference with the +western world. If Greece had been Persianized before the rise of Rome's +power, Rome, too, would have been Persianized. The influence of Hebrew +thought upon the western world would have been forestalled. Zoroastrian +rites would have prevailed. Over all would have spread the mysticism of +the East. + +Our civilization might have risen as high as it has ever gone, in art, +in the grace of life; but instead of being inspired with the eager +desire of progress, by the restless Hellenic necessity of doing +something better and higher, or at least something other, something +new--instead of this, the spirit of peace and of satisfaction with old +ideals would have permeated our systems and our life. + +Lord Mithra, too, would have been primarily the sun, primarily an +embodiment of the light shining down to us through the sky from that +central essence which alone can say, "I am that I am," and not, as in +the Lord Christ, a humble, suffering, poor and despised man lifted up +into Godhead. + + + + +CHAPTER II + +IF THE MOORS HAD WON THE BATTLE OF TOURS + + +The most tremendous contingencies in all history--the determination of +the fate of whole continents, whole civilizations, by a single +incident--are sometimes the occurrences that are most completely and +signally ignored by the ordinary citizen. For instance, it does not +occur to the man on the street that but for a turn in the tide of battle +on a certain October day in the year 732, on a sunny field in +northern-central France, he, the man on the street, would to-day be a +devout Mussulman, listening at evening for the muezzin's call from a +neighboring minaret, abjuring pork and every alcoholic beverage, and +shunning stocks and all kinds of speculation as prohibited forms of +gambling. + +Islamism would to-day, but for a single hard-fought battle and its +issue, probably be the established form of religion in all Europe. Even +England would have been unable to resist the onset of the impetuous +Arabs, once they had established themselves in triumph from the Tagus to +the Vistula; and the conversion of all Europe would have carried with it +the Moslemizing of the new world--supposing, indeed, that America had up +to this time been discovered under Moorish auspices, which is unlikely. + +Europe was certainly nearer to conquest by the Moors in the eighth +century than most people suppose. There are few finer or more heroic +episodes in history than the extraordinary series of conquests by means +of which, a handful of fanatical Arabs, inspired by the prophet +Mohammed, carried, with fire and sword, the faith of Islam over the +world, until, within two hundred years of the date of the prophet's +birth, it reigned from the shores of the Atlantic to the banks of the +Indus. Horde after horde of impetuous warriors of the Crescent had +arisen. Their purpose, frankly, was to convert the world, and convert it +by force. Cutting themselves off from their bases of supply, and relying +upon an alliance of miracle and rapine to sustain them, their triumphant +campaigns were one continuous and colossal Sherman's march to the sea. + +They struck Europe at the east, and also by way of the west. Greek fire +checked them at the gates of Constantinople in the east, but they +overran all northern Africa, crossed the Straits of Gibraltar, and +flowed like a torrent over Spain and southern France. By the year 731, +as Gibbon truly says, the whole south of France, from the mouth of the +Garonne to that of the Rhone, had assumed the manners and religion of +Arabia. + +Abd-er-Rahman, the conqueror, reigned supreme in southwestern Europe. +Spain and Portugal had been annexed to Asia, and now the turn of France +had surely come. + +But at this crisis a heroic figure arose in Europe--scarcely an elegant +figure, though a picturesque one. The throne of the Franks had been +seized by an illegitimate son of old King Pepin, a rough and heedless +fighter, whose rule pleased the people better than did that of the +priests and women whom Pepin had left behind him. This bloody-handed +usurper was named Charles, or Karl, and he was destined afterward to be +called Martel, "the Hammer," on account of the iron blows that he struck +upon all who faced him. + +Abd-er-Rahman, the victorious Moor, advanced into northern France, +overthrowing armies with ease, and sacking cities, churches and convents +as he marched. Nothing could stay him, as it appeared. He had planted +the standard of the prophet at the gates of Tours, which is one hundred +and thirty miles, as the crow flies, from Paris. But meantime the +usurping and base-born Charles, in command of a small army mostly +composed of gigantic and well-seasoned German warriors, was sneaking +along, like an Indian, under the shelter of a range of hills, toward the +Saracen camp; and one day, to Abd-er-Rahman's great surprise, Charles +fell upon him like a veritable hammer of red-hot iron. + +Not in one moment, nor in one day, was the issue decided. Six days the +armies fought, and through all Abd-er-Rahman and his fanatical horde +held their own. But on the seventh day Charles led a battalion of his +biggest, fiercest Germans straight against the Moorish center. +Abd-er-Rahman himself was slain; his army, appalled by this +circumstance, was broken and beaten, and faded away toward the South. + +Charles Martel made sure his victory by another successful campaign. The +Moors were driven out of France forever. In their stead Charles himself +reigned. He had saved Europe to Christianity. Yet for his lack of +docility, the church execrated him. + +If Abd-er-Rahman had overrun France, as he would surely have done if a +less redoubtable and terrible antagonist than Charles Martel had faced +him at Tours, he would next have turned his attention to Germany. With +its fall, Italy and Rome would have invited his attention. There he +would have found few but priests to oppose him, and the empire of the +East, attacked in the rear as well as in the front, would speedily have +succumbed. No Saint Cyril would have gone forth to convert the Russians +and Bulgarians, who would promptly have been Tartarized. + +As we have seen, nothing could have saved England or Ireland. The +prophet's world-conquest must have been accomplished. + +What then? Would the western world have remained at the stage of +cultivation in which we see Arabia to-day? There is no reason to suppose +that that would have been quite the case. It was not so in Moorish +Spain, which rose to a high level of culture. Christianity would not +have been suppressed. It was not suppressed in Turkey or Spain. But it +would probably have been ruled, dominated, forced into odd corners, and +to some extent Moslemized. Learning would not have languished, for in +certain important forms it flourished in Spain. The western brain, the +Aryan genius, must have had its way in many intellectual respects. Yet +the cast of European thought would surely have been sicklied over with +oriental contemplativeness. + +The "hustler" never could have existed under Moslem rule. The speculator +never would have risen, because he would not have been tolerated. The +Moslem doctrine forbids censuses and statistics, treating them as a form +of wicked curiosity concerning the rule of God on earth. Pictorial art, +and sculpture, which the Koran regards as idolatrous, would have been +sternly repressed. Literature would have been great along the line of +poetry; science great along the line of mathematics. + +The western woman would have been orientalized. So far from forming +clubs, she would not have been permitted even to pray in the mosques. + +America would have remained undiscovered for centuries; and if at last +accident or search had laid it bare, it would have followed the path of +Europe. The mellifluous tones of the muezzin's cadence, "La ilah 'i il +'Allah," "There is no god but God," would echo now where the shouts and +yells of the Wall Street speculators reverberate. And the abode of the +mighty would have been a House of Quiet, not the home of strenuousness. + + + + +CHAPTER III + +IF KING ETHELRED OF ENGLAND HAD NOT MARRIED THE NORMAN EMMA + + +Not much turns upon the marriage of kings in these days. The German +Kaiser is not the less German assuredly because his mother was an +Englishwoman. Nor did her marriage to the Crown Prince of Prussia give +Prussia or Germany the slightest hold upon England. + +It was altogether different in an earlier day. One royal marriage in +particular, that of King Ethelred the Redeless, the "Unready," of +England, to Emma, the daughter of Richard the Fearless, Duke of +Normandy, in the year 1002, exercised upon Britain and the world the +most tremendous influence. It led to the invasion and subjugation of +England by William, surnamed the Conqueror, and to the reconstruction of +that mother country of ours, politically, socially and racially, upon +new lines. No royal marriage, perhaps, ever had such enduring and +far-reaching consequences; no queen-elect ever took with her to her +adopted country such a lading of fateful changes. + +The marriage was a sufficiently commonplace affair in itself. Ethelred +was a smooth and rather gentle prince, who thought much more of his own +easy fortunes than of anything else. He wanted a wife, and he did not +like the Danes, who were racially and politically the nearest neighbors +of his royal house. He visited Normandy, and must have pleased the Duke, +for Richard, a bold and resourceful man, bestowed this fair-haired Emma, +a lineal descendant of the victorious Norse pirates, but now quite +Frenchified, upon the young Englishman. + +She was not destined to see her progeny long reign over England. But it +did not matter about her descendants. The great change did not come with +them. What she really did was to supply to her nephew, Duke William, +known to history as the Conqueror, who was yet to come to the throne of +Normandy, a pretext to seize the English crown for himself. + +William was of illegitimate birth. His mother was Arvela, a poor girl +whom Duke Robert saw washing clothes in the river one day and +straightway became enamored of. But on his father's side William was, +through Emma's marriage, cousin of King Edward the Confessor, son of the +unready Ethelred. On a lucky day for him he visited England. It was at a +time when Edward was very ill, and William claimed ever after that he +had received from Edward, on his sick bed, a solemn promise that the +Norman duke should succeed him upon the English throne. + +Edward had no son, but it appears quite unlikely that a wise ruler such +as he was should deliberately have given away the throne and country to +a foreigner, especially when his brother-in-law Harold, Earl of Wessex, +a capable man, stood ready to succeed him. The English, at any rate, +took this view of the matter, for they straightway made Harold king, +ignoring the claim of the vilely born Duke William to the throne. + +But as the world knows, William was able to make good his flimsy claim. +Whether Edward gave him the crown or not, Stamford Bridge and Hastings +did give it him. When at last, following the law of the time, he +presented himself to the suffrage of the English nation, the +representatives of the beaten people had no option but to elect him. He +was a part of the baggage that Queen Emma brought with her. + +What was the rest of it? For one thing, union and consolidation, +centralization. England up to that time had been but a broken congeries +of earldoms or tribal territories, and would have gone on thus if it had +not at last found a master. In the next place, William brought the touch +of France, of Rome, of the graceful Latin world, to England. This son of +a hundred pirates passed on to England the torch of a culture that had +been lighted in Greece and relumed in Rome. It was not for nothing that +what had been ox meat with the Saxons now became beef for the English; +what had been calves' flesh became veal, and base swine flesh reappeared +as a more elegant dish called pork. It meant something that the rude +language of Beowulf was to be succeeded by the smoother lilt of +Chaucer--that, in short, the English had a new and bookish tongue. + +It meant, in simple truth, the disappearance of the old England and the +birth of a new and greater nation. "It was in these years of +subjection," says Green, "that England became really England." The +Normans degraded the bulk of the English lords, but they made these +displaced nobles the nucleus of a new middle class. At the same time +their protection led to the elevation into the same middle class of a +race of cultivators who had been peasants. Furthermore, the Norman rule +expanded villages into towns and cities, and these in time began to +stand, as powerful boroughs, for the rights of the people. The conquest, +says Green, "secured for England a new communion with the artistic and +intellectual life of the world without her. To it we owe not merely +English wealth and English freedom, but England herself." + +Edward A. Freeman calls the Norman conquest "the most important event in +English history since the first coming of the English and their +conversion to Christianity." If the succession of native kings had +continued, says the same authority, "freedom might have died out step by +step, as it did in some other lands. As it was, the main effect of the +conquest was to call out the ancient English spirit in a new and +antagonistic shape, to give the English nation new leaders in the +conquerors who were gradually changed into countrymen, and by the union +of the men of both races, to win back the substance of the old +institutions under new forms." + +In other words, the Norman Princess Emma brought with her John Bull as a +part of her dowry, when she came to weak Ethelred as his bride. + + + + +CHAPTER IV + +IF COLUMBUS HAD KEPT HIS STRAIGHT COURSE WESTWARD + + +On the morning of the 7th day of October, 1492, Christopher Columbus, +sailing unknown seas in quest of "Cipango," the Indies, and the Grand +Khan, still held resolutely to a course which he had laid out due to the +westward. This course he held in spite of the murmurings of his crew, +who wished to turn back, and contrary to the advice of that skilled and +astute navigator, Martin Alonzo Pinzon, who commanded the _Pinta_. +Pinzon had repeatedly advised that the course be altered to the +southwestward. + +Columbus was sailing on a theory. Pinzon, like any other practical +navigator in a strange sea, was feeling his way, and answering the +indications of the waters, the skies, the green grasses that drifted on +the surface of the waves, the flocks of birds that wheeled, and dipped, +and showed their heels to the far-wandered navigators, and seemed to +know their way so well over that remote and uncharted wilderness of the +deep. Columbus had said, "We will sail to the west, and ever to the +west, until the west becomes the east." Which to the men before the mast +was sheer lunacy. But Pinzon had already found strange Afric lands. The +scent of their leaves and flowers seemed to lie in his nostrils. + +Martin Alonzo Pinzon put off in a boat, later on that 7th day of +October, and came back to the _Santa Maria_, in which was the Admiral. +He brought the information that he had seen "a great multitude of birds +passing from the north to the southwest; from which cause he deemed it +reasonable to suppose that they (the birds) were going to sleep on land, +or were perhaps flying from winter which must be approaching in the +countries from which they came." The Admiral knew it was by the aid of +the flight of birds that the Portuguese had discovered the greater part +of the new lands which they had found. Columbus hesitated, wavered. + +Had the heart of the great theorist, sailing obstinately straight west +in obedience to the call of the land whose presence there he had +reasoned out, misgiven him at last? Had the discouragement and +incredulity of his men affected him? We do not know. But we do know that +finally he heeded Pinzon's oft-repeated demand that the course be +altered. + +It looked like common sense to follow the birds. Really it was not. The +theory was his true guide. Columbus betrayed his faith; he resolved, as +his journal recorded, "to turn his prow to the west-southwest, with the +determination of pursuing that course _for two days_." He never resumed +the westward course. He had weakened in his devotion to his own +idea--and had lost a continent for Spain and the Roman Catholic Church. + +For in spite of the conclusion reached by John Boyd Thacher, in his +monumental work on Columbus, that even if the Admiral had held the +westward course his fleet would not have passed the northernmost tip of +the Bahamas, there is sufficient ground for the generally accepted +conclusion that his landfall in that case would have been on the coast +of Florida or South Carolina, or even North Carolina. After the +alteration of his course, Columbus continued to sail for four days in a +general southwesterly direction, before, on the 12th of October, he fell +upon Watling's Island. In that time he had sailed, according to his own +reckoning, one hundred and forty-one leagues. This distance, if +persisted in due to the westward, would have brought him in contact with +drift and real bird-flight indications of the continent. + +Let us see toward what point his course had been laid. Setting sail from +Gomera, in the Canary Islands, Columbus purposed to go straight to the +west until he reached land. Gomera lies in about the latitude of Cape +Canaveral, or the Indian River, Florida. A line drawn from Gomera to +Cape Canaveral passes to the northward of the Bahamas altogether. No +land lay in the Admiral's path to Florida. + +But any supposition that Columbus would not have gone to the northward +of the Indian River ignores the northward drift that the Gulf Stream +would have caused his ships. He had yet, of course, to reach the axis +of that powerful current, which is here comparatively narrow, and runs +very swiftly at the point where the due westward course from Gomera +would have struck it. It is a fair chance that this drift would have +carried Columbus so far north as to land him in the neighborhood of what +is now Charleston, S. C., or even further to the northward, if he had +followed the path he had laid out for himself. + +Amazing the consequences that hung upon the flight of those "multitudes +of birds" that wheeled Bahama-ward on that October day! The Admiral's +landfall on the coast even of Florida would have made all temperate +America Spanish, for it would have focused the might of Ferdinand and +Isabella upon our shores. We know that the islands which lay immediately +to the southward of his "Salvador," in the Bahamas, beckoned Columbus in +that direction, and that the Indians were able by signs to make it +clear to him that a greater land, which was Cuba, and which he called +"Cipango," lay in this southerly direction. That way he laid his course, +"in order," as he wrote in his journal, "to go to this other island +which is very large and where all these men whom I am bringing from the +island of San Salvador make signs that there is a great deal of gold and +that they wear bracelets of it on their arms and legs and in their ears +and in their noses and on their breasts." + +Reason enough! Only it meant that Spain's energy in this hemisphere was +to be directed to the West Indies, and South America, and Mexico, for as +long a time as it was destined to endure, and that the vast continental +North was to be left as the heritage of another race. + +It is true that Florida afterward became Spanish. But it was not a +question of what Florida, merely, was to be. If Columbus had landed +upon the mainland, the northeastward trend of the coast, reaching back +toward Spain by just so much, would have beckoned him northward, not +southward. Even if he had explored southwardly, by some chance, he must +have returned northward when he had reached the point of the Florida +peninsula; and in the northerly direction he would have cruised, +returning Europe-ward. And he would have annexed the land step by step, +as he annexed Cuba, Hispaniola, and all the southern lands as fast as he +touched them. + +The Carolinas, Virginia, Maryland, would have been the scenes of the +Spaniards' settlement for a hundred years. Though afterward they took +Florida, that was as a mere side issue; it was unconsidered, neglected, +after Cuba and Mexico; and was passed on at length to the race that came +to the mainland more than a hundred years after the landfall at San +Salvador. + +Who can estimate the consequences of a fate which should have sent +Columbus straight on his way! Who can compass the thought of the +millions of country-loving Americans of our race unborn here, but +nurtured under skies now foreign to their very nature, but for that +glittering flock of tropical birds whirling southwestwardly? It is no +idle conjecture; von Humboldt, one of the wisest of cosmographers, says +that never in the world's history had the flight of birds such momentous +consequences. "It may be said," he avers, "to have determined the first +settlements in the new continent, and its distribution between the Latin +and Germanic races." He believed that the Gulf Stream would have carried +Columbus around Cape Hatteras. It might indeed have done so. + +We of the United States may well believe that the hand of Providence +guided those birds on that October day; but none the less are we +compelled to admit the strange dependence of human events upon +circumstances that are most trifling in themselves. + + + + +CHAPTER V + +IF QUEEN ELIZABETH HAD LEFT A SON OR DAUGHTER + + +Never did greater events hinge upon a woman's caprice against marriage +than those which were poised on the will of Elizabeth, Queen of England, +in the long years that lay between the time when, as a young queen, it +was proposed to marry her to the Duke of Anjou, and the sere and yellow +leaf of her womanhood, when her potential maternity was past. + +If Elizabeth had married, as her people often implored her to do, and if +her progeny had sat upon the throne and continued the sway of the +Tudors, half a century of turmoil and bloodshed, under the essentially +foreign rule of the Stuarts, might have been spared to England. The +Revolution doubtless would never have taken place. The material and +intellectual advance of England and all Britain would have been steady +and sure upon the splendid foundation of the Elizabethan structure. + +But, on the other hand, as good is often evolved from evil, much that is +sacred and vital to the whole Anglo-Saxon race might have been missed. +The Bill of Rights, the Habeas Corpus Act and other guarantees that were +obtained through the Revolution or the Commonwealth would have been +wanting in the English Constitution. Oliver Cromwell and John Hampden +would probably have remained in rustic obscurity. All modern Europe +would have lacked the political incentive, the revolutionary impulse, +the constructive audacity, which it has derived from the Grand +Remonstrance, from the battlefields of Marston Moor and Naseby, where +royalty was overthrown by the arm of the common people, and from the +eternal menace that lay in the death-block of King Charles. + +It was not because of any aversion to the society of men that Elizabeth +remained unmarried. Very far from this; it is likely that her extreme +liking for male society cut a considerable figure in her refusal. She +did not propose to give any man a public right to interfere with her +liberty of choice in this regard. History agrees that there was a sting +of truth in the words of Mary, Queen of Scots, in a letter which she +once sent to Elizabeth: "Your aversion to marriage proceeds from your +not wishing to lose the liberty of compelling people to make love to +you." The queen was fickle and passionate. She had little fear of the +royal Mrs. Grundy. At the tender age of sixteen scandal linked her name +with that of the Lord Admiral Seymour in such a way that an +investigation by the council was necessary. She baffled the lawyers in +the examination by her "very good wit." + +From the time of her accession, at the age of twenty-five, to the time +of her death, Elizabeth was certainly never without a favorite. She had +small conscience, and there can be little doubt that she required the +assassination of poor Amy Robsart in order that her favorite, Dudley, +might be free from his young wife; and when, after the age of sixty, her +young cavalier of that time, the fascinating Essex, wearying of dancing +attendance upon her at court, joined the expedition of Drake against +Portugal, the Queen bade him return instantly at his "uttermost peril." +In the end she signed the unhappy Essex's death warrant for an alleged +rebellion against her. + +But her motive in refusing matrimony was not altogether--perhaps not +even chiefly--one of coquetry. She was avid of power, and could brook no +rival in its exercise. It is probable that considerations of real +patriotism restrained her from marrying a continental prince. She shrank +from introducing foreign influence as instinctively as Americans have at +all times. She shrank from bowing to any yoke of Europe. But there were +also objections to her marrying an Englishman. If she had chosen one she +would have aroused the jealousy of all Englishmen not of his party or +following. She regarded it as the better policy to keep them all hoping. + +The unmarried state suited her arrogant and domineering nature well. She +had none of the docility which made Queen Victoria a model house-wife +and mother, and also a model constitutional sovereign. It was her +purpose to have undivided power or none. To the deputation of the House +of Commons which visited her with a petition that she marry, she +answered: "For me it shall be sufficient that a marble stone declare +that a queen, having reigned such a time, lived and died a virgin." + +The Commons who uttered the petition must have felt a premonition of +what would actually take place if there were no heir of Elizabeth's +body. The next heir to the throne was Mary, Queen of Scots. She was a +zealous Catholic, and England had just fully established its religious +independence. It is true that Mary's son and heir, James, who afterward +became King of England, as well as of Scotland, was a Protestant, but +the loyalty of the adhesion of his house to the new confession might +well have been distrusted. There was no promise of happiness for England +in the accession of a prince or princess of this house to its throne. + +But the Stuarts came--and the troubles of England began in real +earnest. Elizabeth's reign had been, as it then seemed to all +Englishmen, and as in very many respects it was, the golden age of +Britain. Never had art, and literature, and material prosperity, risen +to so high a level. The world seemed opening to a new and glorious life, +like a rose bursting into bloom. In literature it had been the age of +Shakespeare and Bacon. But with the Stuarts, literature and art passed +into a long eclipse. Shakespeare's light may be said to have gone out +for a hundred years, to be lighted again only from the borrowed torch of +German culture. + +Let us suppose that Elizabeth had been able to find a consort as wise +and as harmless as was Prince Albert, the husband of Queen Victoria. Let +us suppose that the pair had left behind them a thoroughly English +prince, their own son, a man who would have been capable of continuing +Elizabeth's prudent rule and of holding England to its traditions while +maintaining the extraordinary advance that had marked her splendid +reign. Without James's mingled poltroonery and tyranny to nurse and +stimulate it, it is doubtful if Puritanism would have had its spasm of +ascendency. English history would have been spared an epoch of chaos, of +wild experimentation, of political empirics. + +At the same time it would have been deprived of a form of political +genius which was hammered out of the fire of rebellion. English +Whiggism, English liberalism, English nonconformity have made the world +over anew. America, in particular, would have been infinitely poorer +without the Puritan ferment. Should we have had the New England +migration at all, if England had continued its calm and homogeneous +development under Elizabethan influences? Would not rather all America +have been like Virginia, and the new world organized on a roast-beef, +plum-pudding and distinctly Anglican and conformist basis? + +If we can imagine Massachusetts a purely Episcopal colony to-day, ruled +by parochial vestries instead of by town-meeting-parliaments and the +village Gladstone and his responsible cabinet in every hamlet, and the +whole province presided over by some self-sufficient Sir Alexander +Swettenham as the representative of British royalty, we may perhaps +imagine England without the cataclysm of the Stuarts. + + + + +CHAPTER VI + +IF THE PHILARMONIA HAD NOT GIVEN CONCERTS AT VICENZA + + +For the sake of variety, perhaps of diversion, in the midst of more +serious speculations, let us have an "if" of musical history--and one +which, no doubt, musicians may regard as purely fanciful, totally +absurd. It should be stated at the start that this chapter is written by +one who has no knowledge of music, but is capable of a very keen +enjoyment of it, and has in his time heard much professional music--many +concerts, operas and oratorios--and also much of the spontaneous +untrained music of the people, including old New England ballads now +forgotten; the songs of German peasants at the fireside and spinning +wheel; the native corn songs, "wails" and "shouts" of Southern negroes +on the plantations; and the medicine songs, scalp songs, ceremonial +chants and love ditties of the American Indians. + +The contingency which will be presented here is this: If a certain group +of unprofessional singers and musicians in the highly cultivated Italian +town of Vicenza, about midway of the sixteenth century, had not banded +themselves together in a society called the Philarmonia, and for the +first time in Europe given musical entertainments to which the public +were admitted, the musical institution called the concert might never +have existed, and music in that case would have remained a spontaneous +expression of human emotion, untainted with what is now called +virtuosity--that is, the strife and strain after technical mastery, +which affects the whole character of music, and diverts it from its +original purpose of pleasing the sense and comforting the heart. + +Expert professional music was a thing of very slow growth. The old +chapelmasters or choirmasters were, of course, in a sense professional, +since they lived upon the church. But they had also a sacerdotal +character. At the beginning they were always priests. To make a class of +professional musicians, vying with one another for mere mastery, the +public concert, with paid musicians, had to be developed. + +Though the Philarmonia gave public concerts at Vicenza, as we have said, +in the middle of the sixteenth century, concert music and opera music +had no general existence for as much as a century afterward. The first +opera ever represented was Peri's "Eurydice," written about 1600. Even +that was merely the expression of a group of enthusiasts, a sort of +private attempt to embody a theory of their own about what music should +be. It was not until the year 1672 that the first concert, with a price +for admission, was given in London. The price then charged was a +shilling, and the concert was in a private house. + +By that time the start had been made. Other concerts were given soon +afterward. They became popular. There was a demand for skilled musicians +and soloists. Performers began practicing for the sake of excelling in +technical achievement. By swift and sudden steps a premium was put upon +mechanical perfection in the handling of instruments. The old +spontaneous methods of expression gradually became discredited. + +As a consequence of the new development, two sorts of music grew up in +the world. On the one side stood concert music, professional music, +virtuoso music. This was difficult and complicated, and it was +impossible for ordinary people to sing it or play it. On the other side +was the popular music--folk music, the music of the street, the nursery, +the stable-shed and the taproom. As popular music was regularly deserted +now for the concert school by those who possessed the greatest musical +talent, it began to degenerate until it reached at last the degradation +of "Grandfather's Clock," "Ta-ra-ra-boom-de-ay," "Waiting at the Church" +and the graphophone. + +On the other hand, concert music moved farther and farther away from the +hearts and the comprehension of the people, until it has become a thing +apart from their lives, to be enjoyed almost as much with the eye as +with the ear, the interest lying chiefly in the production, in +succession, of individual masters, each of whom visibly surpasses the +mechanical achievements of his immediate predecessor. + +If those first concerts had not been given by the Philarmonia at +Vicenza, and the idea had not slowly rippled outward thence, like +spreading circles from a stone thrown into the water, until it reached +Vienna, Paris and London, what would have been the state of music +to-day? + +Manifestly the development of church music would have gone on. The +people, no doubt, would have been taking part in magnificent chorals. +The masses of the Catholic Church would have their correspondent feature +in the anthems and hymns sung in the Protestant churches by the +congregations. Every instrument that existed in the sixteenth century +would have been perfected, but not one would have taken on the intricate +development which musical mechanism exacts. + +In other words, the harpsichord would never have become a piano, and the +electrical church organ would not have been heard of. We should all play +some such instrument as the harp, the violin, the viol, the flute, the +pipe or the dulcimer. All might have been composers, as the negroes and +Indians are to-day, but on a higher plane. + +What popular music might be now but for that unlucky Philarmonia +discovery is suggested by an extract from the writings of Thomas Morley, +an Englishman who became a great amateur and introducer of Italian +madrigals in his own country. In the year 1597 he wrote that, on a +certain evening, in England,-- + + supper being ended, and musicke-bookes, according to the + custome, being brought to the table, the mistresse of the house + presented mee with a part, earnestly requesting mee to sing. + But when, after manie excuses, I protested unfainedly that I + could not, euerie one began to wonder. Yea, some whispered unto + others, demanding how I was brought up. So that, upon shame of + mine ignorance, I go now to seek out mine old friende master + Gnorimus, to make myselfe his schollar. + +In those days a person who could not sing, and sing well, was regarded +as a freak, and was required to fit himself to join in the universal +diversion. If we had not turned over our music making to professionals +it would be so now. Instead of going to the concert or the opera after +the evening meal, or playing bridge or talking scandal, people would +have participated in the singing of madrigals, glees or whatever other +sort of popular spontaneous music had been developed, and all would have +been sustained and uplifted by the exalted joy that comes from joining +with others in the production of good music. + +The people would have been joyously and heartily musical. Their taste +would not have been degraded to the point where it is gratified, as in +the graphophone, with a complicated succession of flat and strident +sounds unmusical in themselves. + + + + +CHAPTER VII + +IF THE SPANISH ARMADA HAD SAILED AT ITS APPOINTED TIME + + +When Philip the Second, son of the great emperor Charles V, came to the +throne of Spain, that country had become the greatest cosmopolitan +empire in the world. The throne of Castile, at one time or another +during Philip's reign, was the throne not only of Spain and Portugal, +but of the Netherlands and Burgundy, the Sicilies, Sardinia, Milan, +Cuba, Hispaniola, Florida, Mexico, California, nearly all of South +America, and the Philippine Islands. The Spanish monarch was the eldest +son of the church; and Philip, strong, ambitious, bigoted and insolent, +expected, as he laid the foundations of his glorious palace, the +Escorial, the eighth wonder of the world, to become master of France and +Britain, and to bequeath to his son the vastest empire that the sun had +ever shone upon. + +By his marriage with Queen Mary he acquired the nominal title of king of +England, though he was never crowned. But his grudge rose against +England after Mary's death and Elizabeth's accession. The country proved +itself a thorn in his side, helping the Dutch rebels and undoing at home +the persecuting work of his late spouse. Philip formed a great project +for the invasion of the country. + +Spain was supreme then on the sea. The English navy had greatly +declined. In 1575 it had but twenty-four vessels of all classes on the +water. Philip knew the cleverness of the English with their ships, +however, and in planning this invasion he proposed to be invincible. +Invincible he sought to make the Armada, or fleet, that he sent against +the country, and invincible not only he, but all Europe, believed it to +be, when, in January of the year 1588, the great flotilla was ready to +sail. + +It consisted of about one hundred and thirty ships, of which sixty-two +were over three hundred tons burden. It was commanded by a brave and +skillful sea fighter, Santa Cruz. The English had bettered their +conditions of seven years before very greatly, but they were at this +moment absolutely unprepared to meet a foreign fleet. Their ships were +scattered far and wide, and many were unequipped. If the Armada had +sailed at that moment it would have found no force ready to meet it. And +it would have escaped the storms that later befell. + +But _manana_ is the curse of all Spain's projects. The Armada lingered. +Santa Cruz, its chief, sickened in port and died. Very likely if he had +sailed no such fate would have overtaken him. This was the first of the +big fleet's misfortunes. Philip looked about for another commander. By a +fatuous favoritism his choice fell upon the Duke of Medina Sidonia, who +was utterly incompetent. + +The months flew past. Meantime the English, fully apprised of the king's +intentions, were getting a fleet together. In those days it was not +necessary to wait five years for a battleship to be constructed. Almost +any big ship could be turned into a fighting craft. In particular, the +English were well off in guns, and the delay of the Armada gave them a +chance to get their artillery on board. + +When--_nombre de Dios!_--does the reader suppose that this invincible +fleet, ready in January, really set sail from Coruna? On the 12th day of +July! It had already been scattered and weakened by a storm off Lisbon. +On the 21st of July Medina Sidonia sailed into Drake's and Hawkins's +"line ahead" formation in the English channel as Rojestvensky sailed +into Togo's lair off Tsu-Shima in 1905, and the result to him somewhat +resembled the subsequent fate of the Russian fleet in the Sea of Japan. +It was not, however, so bad. If Medina Sidonia had gone, with his +surviving ships, after the first onset, to Denmark, and refitted, he +might yet have embarrassed the British. But he sought to make the +passage around the north of Scotland, and a succession of storms wrecked +his whole remaining fleet. + +All authorities agree that in January, 1588, no English force existed +which could have hoped to check Santa Cruz as things then stood. What if +he had come on and landed an army of trained veterans upon England's +undefended shores? He must have won. Queen Elizabeth must have been +overthrown. Ireland would have gladly joined Philip. England was almost +half Catholic, and the people of that faith might eventually have become +reconciled to the foreigner. Philip might have made himself another +Norman William. The Spanish culture would have been imposed upon the +English nation. But unlike William of Normandy, who transferred his +power to Britain, Philip would have remained a Spanish sovereign, and +London would have been ruled from Madrid. + +Philip would never have temporized with English Protestantism. The +chances are that he would have stamped it out utterly and at the start, +as he sought, too late, to do in the Netherlands. If he might have +worked his will, he would also have suppressed English learning and +literature. William Shakespeare, who had just come up to London, had +never produced a play when the Armada sailed, and probably he never +would have produced one if it had conquered. The glorious Elizabethan +culture would have been nipped in the bud. + +All Britain's possessions in the new world, already existent or to be, +would have fallen to Spain or France if Philip had overthrown +Elizabeth--doubtless to Spain, for Philip's ambition to seize the French +throne would have been furthered by his conquest of England. Spanish +viceroys would have borne sway for centuries over all North America. A +hybrid Indian-Latin race would have arisen here, as in Mexico and Peru. +Lacking the inspiration of North American freedom, all Spanish America +to the southward would have remained to this day under the dons. + +Castilian speech, Castilian cultivation, Castilian manners, the +Castilian faith, might have reigned supreme over a dusky race from the +St. Lawrence to the Straits of Magellan. + + + + +CHAPTER VIII + +IF CHAMPLAIN HAD TARRIED IN PLYMOUTH BAY + + +On the 18th of July, in the year 1605, Samuel de Champlain, in command +of a ship of the King of France, and engaged in the search for an +eligible site for a great settlement, anchored in the harbor which was +afterward to be known as the harbor of Plymouth, in New England. Two +days before, he had been in Boston Bay. He mapped both these havens, and +expressed his approval of the physical resources, and also the native +Indian peoples, of the region. + +At that time the coast of New England was really unappropriated, though +soon after it was claimed by both France and England. It was merely a +question which power should first seriously undertake the settlement of +the country. If France planted her colony here, the land was destined to +be French. If England hers, it would be English. + +Champlain carefully studied the advantages of Boston and Plymouth. That +he thought favorably of the latter place is proved by the very decent +map, still extant, which he made of Plymouth and Duxbury waters. "Port +St. Louis," he called the place, after the patron saint of France, and +after his royal master. It looked very much as if he hoped that the spot +he so honored would be made the seat of the French empire in the western +world. + +But Champlain sailed away, bearing with him the blessing of the thickly +settled and sedentary native people. He passed around Cape Cod, and +went westward as far as Nauset harbor, near New Bedford. And then, in +due time, he sailed for France. When, in 1608, he finally laid the +foundations of the city which was to be the capital of France in the new +world, he did not lay them at Plymouth or Boston, but at Quebec, on the +St. Lawrence. + +Why was his choice thus made? Largely, no doubt, because Champlain, +whose accurate information and seemingly always wise observation were +greatly trusted by the King of France, was infatuated with the noble +aspect and vast proportions of the gulf and river of St. Lawrence. He +was first of all a sailor, and he had seen nothing to compare with the +magnificence of this great _embouchure_. Here were scope and refuge for +the greatest of navies! Here, it seemed, was a place designed by the +Almighty to be the seat of an empire! + +Champlain had an excellent eye for harbors, but not so good an eye of +prophecy for the grand constructive events that were to be. He left the +Massachusetts coast unappropriated. First its native inhabitants, so +numerous, so gentle, so industrious, were decimated by a plague that +came to them from the white men. Only a remnant survived. And when, in +1620, their sachem, Samoset, shouted "Welcome, Englishmen!" to the men +of the Mayflower, the Indian king hailed, unconsciously, the advent of +an empire which was to cast the domain of New France into a cold and +waning shadow. For Quebec was too far north, and its hinterland too poor +and restricted, ever to nurse an imperial race. + +What if Champlain had been more sagacious, and had made his stand on the +coast of Massachusetts? In all probability the settlement would have +been definitive. The Pilgrims of Plymouth and the Puritans of Boston, +finding no place for their settlement in the north, would, in 1620, +have gone to Virginia or Georgia. The steely Yankee wedge which, on one +side, was to force the Dutch out of New Amsterdam, and on the other the +French out of Port Royal and Acadia, would never have been driven. New +England would have been French forever, and New York Dutch. + +The principle of the hinterland was asserted so successfully in our +early history that Massachusetts and Connecticut were able to claim +territory as far west as the Mississippi River. It was by means of this +hinterland claim that the young American republic succeeded in rounding +out its northwestern possessions, after the War of the Revolution, and +obtaining Ohio, Indiana, Michigan, Wisconsin and Illinois. All these +would have been French if Champlain had made New England French; and the +English colonies, if they had ever become strong enough to throw off the +British yoke, would have consisted of a restricted section in the +Southeast. + +Indeed, without Sam Adams, Otis, Warren, and Israel Putnam, without the +revolt against the Stamp Act, and without Lexington, Concord and Bunker +Hill, it is impossible to conceive of the American republic at all. + +Supposing it to have been constituted notwithstanding, it would have had +to do without the influence of the New England town meeting, the New +England common free school, the New England college, and the +congregational system of church organization. It would have been +deprived of the work of Franklin, Hancock, the Adamses, Webster, Sumner, +Garrison, Phillips, Grant and the Shermans, in its affairs, and of +Longfellow, Emerson, Holmes, Lowell, Whittier, Hawthorne and Parkman in +its intellectual life. + +What would the New England country and the people have been like, if +Champlain had never turned back from Plymouth Bay? We know from +Benjamin Franklin's account what the progeny of the English settlers had +become even as long ago as 1772. "I thought often," he wrote in that +year, "of the happiness of New England, where every man is a freeholder, +has a vote in public affairs, lives in a tidy, warm house, has plenty of +good food and fuel, with whole clothes from head to foot, the +manufacture perhaps of his own family. Long may they continue in this +situation!" What the Canadian habitant is to-day, we know. Very often he +is unable to read or write, and his material and moral condition very +low. Even as late as 1837 the Canadian provinces were still arbitrarily +ruled by royal governors, with appointed councils or upper houses which +had a veto on all legislation. There was no self-rule, and the mass of +the French people were illiterate and miserably poor. + +Sieur Samuel de Champlain did a good day's work for English-speaking +America, and the great free republic that was to be, when he pointed his +prow northward and sailed away, out of sight of Cape Cod, in the summer +of 1605. + + + + +CHAPTER IX + +IF CHARLES II HAD ACCEPTED THE KINGSHIP OF VIRGINIA + + +Once at least the New World has furnished to the Old World a reigning, +actual king; once, for thirteen years, a monarch, sitting on a throne in +America, ruled thence an ancient kingdom in Europe. And twice this +singular thing might have happened, with this time an enthroned +sovereign on the banks of the James instead of on the shore of a +Brazilian bay, if a certain king's son and king-to-be had been of a +somewhat more venturing and less indolent disposition. + +The occasion when the thing really happened was when Don John VI, King +of Portugal, removed his royal throne and all the paraphernalia of +government from Lisbon to Rio de Janeiro, in 1807 (being impelled +thereto by an intrusive movement on the part of one Napoleon Bonaparte), +and turned Portugal (after the withdrawal of the French) into an actual +dependency of Brazil. This it remained until King John recrossed the +Atlantic in 1820. Throughout that period the scepter bore sway from west +to east, from America Europe-ward. + +Very much the same thing would have occurred further north in the +contingency to which I have referred; and if it had, a royalist or +monarchist influence might have been laid upon the English colonies in +America which would have colored their history and institutions in a +marked degree, even if their destiny had not been permanently affected. + +When Charles I, King of England, was arrested, imprisoned, and put to +death by the Parliament party in 1649, Virginia experienced a shock of +shame and indignation. That colony had absolutely no sympathy with +Cromwell and his party. It was in no sense or part Puritan. The Cavalier +sentiment dominated it completely; for though the bulk of its +inhabitants came out very poor, and were as far as possible from being +"gentlemen," they were not at all of the material of which Roundheads +were made; nor had they any influence in the government of the Province. +The General Assembly represented the gentlemen of the colony, who were +royalists to a man. + +It is not surprising, therefore, that upon the receipt of the news of +the execution of Charles I, the General Assembly of Virginia lost no +time in meeting and passing an act in which the dead king's son, Charles +II, was recognized as the rightful and reigning sovereign. Legal +processes, and the machinery of the provincial government, continued to +run in the king's name. In England, Cromwell was installed as Lord +Protector. But Virginia refused to recognize him or his title. At least +one county of Virginia formally proclaimed Charles king, requiring "all +his majesty's liege people to pray God to bless Charles the Second, King +of England, Scotland, France and Ireland, Virginia, New England and the +Caribda Islands." This, I believe, was the first appearance of the term +"King of Virginia," a title which was destined to be heard again +somewhat later. + +Nor did the people content themselves with proclaiming Charles king. In +1650, Governor Berkeley sent Colonel Norwood to Holland to invite the +prince to become the ruling sovereign of what Raleigh had called "the +newe Inglishe Nation" on this side the water. Charles did not accept. +Nor did he frankly refuse. He had not the boldness to go to Virginia, +but he was delighted with the chance to put on for a moment the manner +and authority of a ruler. He sent Berkeley a new commission as governor, +signed by himself as king, and gave Colonel Norwood a commission as +treasurer of the colony. Both commissions were honored in Virginia. + +The colony, indeed, with Barbadoes in the West Indies, virtually +constituted itself the Dominion of King Charles the Second; and it is in +memory of that assumption of the whole kingdom's prerogative, as the +Virginians believe, that the state is called the Old Dominion to-day. + +Nor did the people propose that their allegiance should remain merely +nominal. They essayed actually to cut the connection with Cromwell's +Commonwealth and maintain themselves as the sovereign remainder of the +English realm. They succeeded in maintaining this position for a +considerable time--until, that is, 1651, when Cromwell's government +sent three ships of war to reduce the Virginians to submission. As all +the principal settlements were within easy reach of navigable water, and +had not developed sufficient back territory by means of which to support +themselves, it was impracticable for them to hold out long; they were +obliged to submit. Cromwell treated the province oppressively, and +forbade the other colonies to trade with it. + +It is not at all surprising that Virginia, which in the meantime had +become the place of refuge of many more royalists, took steps to throw +off the Puritan allegiance as soon as possible after Cromwell's death, +and sought to anticipate the restoration of the Stuarts. Sir William +Berkeley, whom Cromwell had displaced with a Roundhead governor, was +again called to the head of things by the people. He refused to assume +the governorship at their mandate unless they gave him their solemn and +formal promise to venture their lives and fortunes for King Charles II. +This promise was given him by the unanimous voice of the electors. +Berkeley then proceeded to proclaim Charles "King of England, Scotland, +France, Ireland and Virginia." Virginia was once more the sole existing +segment of the king's dominion. In Virginia, and in Virginia only, +processes and documents were issued in his name. + +Charles was therefore really king in Virginia, though in very fact he +was still living a lazy and rather low life in the Dutch towns, or +eating, as a guest, the bread of the French and Spanish nobility. The +Virginians, however, were not at all content with having set up a mere +paper sovereignty for him. Berkeley had kept in touch, by letter and +through messengers, with Charles, and had sent word to him, in Holland, +before the Commonwealth had fallen, that he would raise his standard in +Virginia if the king would give his consent. Once more he offered him a +Virginian crown. Richard Lee was sent to Holland with a proposition from +Berkeley to take the field for the king. It was even proposed that +Charles should come to Virginia and set up his throne there. + +The king once more sent cordial thanks to the Virginians. But he did not +accept their proposition. We can imagine that along one side of his +nature it appealed to him, and on the other and commanding side it was +quite unwelcome; that is to say, while it must have inflamed somewhat +his ambition to be king once more and have done with the eating of the +bread of others, it was quite in conflict with his natural indolence and +moral cowardice. His first attempt to assert his kingship, when, on the +field of Worcester, he was ignominiously defeated by Cromwell, had +sickened him with all proceedings having the stamp of energy upon them. +As a matter of fact, it would have been perfectly safe for him to raise +his standard and set up his throne in Virginia. But he would not venture +it. He would remain on the Continent and await the turn of events. + +Ere long events made him king in England. The Commonwealth fell to +pieces when there was no longer a strong hand to guide it. Charles +landed shabbily, even squalidly, at Dover, almost sneaking into the +country, instead of coming in triumph from Virginia, with a kingly New +World in his hand, as he might have done if he had accepted Berkeley's +invitation. + +If, after his defeat at Worcester, he had taken advantage of Virginia's +first proffer and of French assistance, and raised his flag in America, +Charles might have affected the world's history very materially. There +was no time when the Puritans were not in a minority in England. They +held down the majority for a time because they had developed a superior +military capacity, and had a splendid, resolute army. But to the nucleus +of a brilliant Cavalier command in the New World, the more vigorous +English royalists might have rallied. A court at Williamsburg, which was +then and for a long time afterward the capital of Virginia, would have +meant a royal court in London much sooner than it really arrived, and +would have caused the Commonwealth to leave a fainter and narrower mark +upon the history of England than in the event it did leave. + +Meantime, what a brilliant court would have assembled around the gay and +talkative monarch at Williamsburg! Already the Lees, the Washingtons, +the Berkeleys, and many others of the "first families," were established +in Virginia. Charles would probably have been happy in the easy, +light-hearted atmosphere of the plantations. There were no Puritans +there to bother him. Virginia had made its own laws against Puritan +practices--and enforced them. + +Never was a monarch who would have been better pleased with having about +him actual slaves--men and women whose bodies he would have owned. His +sway must have spread northward as far as the border of the French +possessions, for though New England was Puritan, it bent reluctantly to +the sway of the Commonwealth, seeming to scent in the Roundhead +sovereignty a kind of rival that threatened to take over its half-won +autonomy. A kingship exercised in America would probably have suited the +men of New England very well. + +In all likelihood the throne would in due time have been transferred to +the mother country. But its erection here, even for a few years, must +have infused into the character of the Americans generally a larger +element of monarchicalism than fell to their lot as it was. Virginia +would hardly have fallen off so readily into colonial republicanism as +it did in 1774-1776. English neglect of a really royalist Virginia sowed +the seed of Virginian rebellion. If Virginia had not supported +Massachusetts, shoulder to shoulder, there could not have been an +American Revolution. Charles did not know how far he let Virginia go +when he rebuffed Berkeley's emissaries. + +The sentiment of personal loyalty to the crown remained strong in the +colonies up to the very outburst of the Revolution. The Americans +dissolved the relation of subject and sovereign with regret. If they had +ever had a king whom they could call their own, the interest enkindled +and perpetuated by his presence might very well have turned the scale in +1776 and prevented the withdrawal of the colonies. + + + + +CHAPTER X + +IF ADMIRAL PENN HAD PERSISTED IN DISOWNING HIS SON WILLIAM + + +When an English father, irascible and opinionated, disowns and turns out +of doors a son who has not only disobeyed him but proved false to the +traditions and obvious interests of the family, he is very apt to adhere +to his action. A very great deal turned upon a case, once, in which an +English father, after making a very firm show of disowning his son, at +last relented and took him back to his heart. + +Pennsylvania, to wit, turned upon it; and all the amazing success of +William Penn's great experiment in colonization. There has never been +anything quite like that success in the world's history, for the great +trek of the already established American population in the nineteenth +century was a readjustment, an extension, rather than a colonization in +the true sense. The planting of Pennsylvania was a true colonization. +Not only did it amount to the creation of a great and model +commonwealth, full-fledged, with a composite new-world population, in +twenty or even ten years' time, but it furnished the keystone to the +arch of states that constituted the American republic in the next +century after Penn's settlement. + +Philadelphia led the American towns in the seven years of the +Revolution. It was their capital commercially as well as politically. It +supplied most of the sinews of war. Without Robert Morris's $1,400,000, +all of which came from Philadelphia, the final and crucial campaign of +the war could not have been fought. More than that, without just the +sort of commonwealth that Pennsylvania had already become, standing in +the center of things--cosmopolitan, independent of royalist or +aristocratic influence, populous, well-to-do, democratic, steady--it is +hard to see how the Revolution could have been undertaken at all. + +But for the incident which permitted Penn's settlement, the vast +territory which afterward constituted Pennsylvania would have become +merely an extension of New York, or of New Jersey, or of Maryland, or of +Virginia, or of all of them. The chances are that its resources would +have been exploited by slave labor. The greater part of the state might +have remained slave territory up to 1861. In any case its development +would have been much more slow, its peopling much less rapid. Not only +must Indian wars have checked growth, but the spectacle of the arrival +of five hundred thousand stalwart Germans, the creation of the largest +city in the colonies within fifty years, and the upbuilding, in that +time, of a trade from the Delaware River that employed more than five +hundred ships and seven thousand sailors, could never have been +presented. + +The part which Pennsylvania began to play from the moment of Penn's +arrival, and which it still plays, in American affairs, was directly +dependent upon Penn's character and genius, and, for a long time, upon +his wealth and social position. Without the wealth which William Penn +inherited from his father, Admiral Sir William Penn, he could not have +organized his Pennsylvania Society, nor bought the site of Philadelphia. +Without the position, as well as the wealth, which he inherited, he +could not, in the first place, have aspired to the acquaintance with and +confidence of King Charles II; and these were absolutely essential to +the extraordinary charter, in behalf of a despised and distrusted +people, which Penn received at the king's hands. + +Had Penn always been in this favorable position? We shall see. The +admiral, his father, was a good churchman and a conservative man. King +Charles held him in very high estimation. The son was brilliant, and of +noble character. He was sent to Oxford University; and what was the +father's astonishment, after the boy had been there some little time, to +hear that he had joined the despised and persecuted sect of the Quakers! +This was very much as if, at the present day, the son and heir of a +great multi-millionaire should join, not merely the Socialists, but the +Anarchists at Paterson! + +Sir William raved and scolded. The son only grew more firm in the faith. +Sir William endured much; but finding the young man actually inclined to +address the king as "thou," he told him that if he committed this +impropriety, or "thee-ed" and "thoued" either him, the admiral, or the +Duke of York, he would disown him, and cut him off without a shilling. +On the very first opportunity after this, young William addressed King +Charles as "thou!" The king, having a more than royal sense of humor, +made a jest of the matter, but Sir William did not. He was as good as +his word. He turned his son out of doors, and bade him begone. The youth +went abroad, and took up for a time a very much discredited existence. +He had already been expelled from the university. + +Here, for a time, the fate of Pennsylvania certainly trembled in the +balance. It was quite within the outraged admiral's power to make the +ban permanent. If he had done so, there would never have been a +Quaker-German commonwealth in America. + +It is known that the son accepted his banishment as permanent. But his +mother did not. She pleaded with the father for his forgiveness. She +reminded him of the boy's great natural goodness, his brilliancy, his +affectionateness. He would, Lady Penn maintained, recover from his +distemper of Quakerism. She begged her husband, before it was too late, +to relent and recall him. + +At length, moved by this appeal and the promptings of his own heart, the +admiral called the young man home. Once or twice afterwards he was on +the point of a more radical banishment of him. But, fortunately for the +New World, Sir William's heart was soft after all. The son was +reestablished in his good graces. After the admiral's death, in 1670, it +was found that he had bequeathed all his wealth to the son, and, owing +to the son's influence, the Quakers improved their position not a +little, and in due time Penn organized and put through the Pennsylvania +experiment. But King Charles took good care to inform him that the name +"Pennsylvania," officially bestowed on the colony, was not in honor of +the founder, but in compliment to the admiral, his father. + +Narrow as this contingency may have been, since so great an event +depended on the impulse of one man, it was after all a moral +contingency, and not due of physical accident, as so many others have +been. It is the more impressive for this reason. It is good to know that +a few heartbeats the more, in the breast of a man who can be kind as +well as hot-tempered, may create a mighty empire. + + + + +CHAPTER XI + +IF THE BOY GEORGE WASHINGTON HAD BECOME A BRITISH MIDSHIPMAN + + +One summer day, in 1746, a British ship of war lay in the Potomac River +below the place where the city of Washington now stands. The officers of +the ship had been visiting at Mount Vernon, which was the residence of +Major Lawrence Washington, adjutant-general of Virginia. + +No vessel of the royal navy entered the Potomac River without a visit on +the part of its officers to Major Washington's house. He had been in the +king's service at the siege of Cartagena and elsewhere. Admiral Vernon +was his friend; Major Washington's estate on the Potomac had been named +after the admiral. Lawrence Washington's acquaintance with the men of +both army and navy was wide, and his popularity among them great. A +visit to his hospitable residence, where he entertained them with true +Virginian lavishness, was always a bright spot in any naval officer's +life at that day. + +At Lawrence Washington's table, for two or three years prior to 1746, +had sat his younger brother, George by name. This lad, who was a +gentleman and a soldier in miniature, had often listened to stories of +the exploits of the navy--of the capture of Porto Bello, of the +bombardment of Cartagena, and of cruisings and battles along the Spanish +Main. These stories and personal contact with their heroes had inspired +him with an eager desire to enter the naval service. His father was +dead, and his brother, who had virtually taken the father's place, +favored the boy's design. His mother had opposed it. But at last she had +been induced to give her consent. A midshipman's warrant was obtained +for young George Washington, and on the summer day in 1746 of which we +have spoken his luggage had actually been sent on board the ship lying +in the river. + +But at the last moment Mary Washington flatly rebelled. She could not +bear the thought of her boy's going to sea. She foresaw a time when she +would need him at home. She withdrew her consent; and as her signature +was necessary to his enlistment, it was impossible for him to join the +ship, and his luggage was sent back to Mount Vernon. + +So thus it happened that George Washington did not, at the age of +fourteen, enter the British navy, and embark upon a career which would +probably have held him fast all the rest of his life. + +It was a real contingency--that of the possible commitment of George +Washington to the royal cause. Every influence that bore upon him, up to +the date of his brother Lawrence's death, in 1752, was royalist. This +brother was married to the daughter of George William Fairfax, cousin +and manager of the great American estates of Lord Fairfax. Lord Fairfax +himself, removing to Virginia, became the patron, friend and mentor of +young George Washington. The young man was in constant association with +Englishmen, and always more or less under official influence. + +The Fairfaxes remained loyal to the British power when the war of +independence was declared. If Lawrence Washington had lived it is quite +conceivable--aye, probable--that he would have gone with them. If George +Washington had not been thrown much into contact after that with his +Virginian neighbors, among whom the spirit of rebellion had been +propagated from Massachusetts--if he had not himself become a colonial +soldier and commander--there can be little question that he would have +clung to the English side. + +In the meantime, undoubtedly, he would have been advanced to rather high +rank in the naval service, if he had joined it. The years between 1746, +when the midshipman's warrant was obtained for Washington, and 1774, +when the colonies began to flame up into revolt, had been of great +activity at sea. + +The young officer might have participated in the destruction of the +French fleet at Cape Finisterre; in the victory off Lagos; in the great +decisive combat in Quiberon Bay; in the capture of Havana, and in many +other sea fights. He would have fought by the side of Boscawen, Sir +Edward Hawke, Lord Howe, Duff and Rodney, and very likely have won +laurels such as theirs. Nothing colonial could have separated him from +the flag which he had thus served, any more than the influence of his +native state could have separated Farragut from the Stars and Stripes in +1861. + +Is it too much to say that the American republic would have been +fatherless without Washington? Perhaps an arm might have been +found--though that is doubtful--that could have wielded his sword. But +where was the brain, the patience, the tact, the determination, that +would have composed the differences in the American councils, and have +kept the discordant colonies and the jealous commanders together? + +That another man, that any combination of men, could have done what he +did, is inconceivable. In the grandeur of his character and in the +genius with which he accomplished a tremendous work, he is uncompanioned +not only in America, but in the history of the world. Without his +steadying hand in the war, the American army would have followed a +devious course to death, and the young republic one to its destruction. + +As to the decisive part which he played in the formation of the union of +the States after the war, the word of his companions in the Federal +Constituent Convention is conclusive. "Were it not for one great +character in America," said Grayson of Virginia, referring to +Washington, "so many men would not be for this government; we do not +fear while he lives, but who besides him can concentrate the confidence +and affection of all Americans?" No one else ever could have +concentrated them. Monroe reported to Jefferson, "Be assured +Washington's influence carried this government." And Bancroft has put +this judgment on record: "The country was an instrument with thirteen +strings, and the only master who could bring out all their harmonious +thought was Washington. Had the idea prevailed that he would not accept +the Presidency, it would have proved fatal." + +Washington was the pivot upon which all things turned. Lacking such a +pivot, the machinery of the American republic would have tumbled into +ruin. Happy the choice of the Virginian mother who could not spare her +boy on that summer day, and sent aboard the man-of-war in Potomac's +stream for his dunnage! + + + + +CHAPTER XII + +IF ALEXANDER HAMILTON HAD NOT WRITTEN ABOUT THE HURRICANE + + +"He thought out the Constitution of the United States and the details of +the government of the Union; and out of the chaos that existed after the +Revolution raised a fabric every part of which is instinct with his +thought." So said one of his contemporaries, Ambrose Spencer, of +Alexander Hamilton; and another said: "He did the thinking of his time." +The thinking that Hamilton did for the young American republic was of +the most tremendous and vital importance to it. His services as a +financier were not merely of a negative or saving character--they were +positively constructive and permanently enduring; he "created a public +credit and brought the resources of the country into active efficiency." +It was Hamilton who founded the American system of business and finance. + +Yet it is altogether likely that but for an accidental circumstance or +two Alexander Hamilton would never have come to the continental +colonies. He was born on the Island of Nevis, in the West Indies, and +upon that island, and upon St. Christopher and St. Croix, neighboring +islands, his life up to the age of fifteen was spent. His father, James +Hamilton, had proved "feckless and unfortunate," as a British biographer +of Hamilton expresses it, and early ceased to provide for the boy, or, +apparently, to take any interest in his education or welfare. His mother +died early, and left him to the charge of her relatives, and as she +bequeathed to them several other children, they had little thought about +Alexander except to make him of some use and lighten their own burden. +He was sent to school scarcely at all, and at the age of twelve was put +into the shop or store of Nicholas Cruger, a general dealer at St. +Croix, to earn his living as a clerk. + +There he remained for about three years. He has often been described as +phenomenally precocious, and he certainly was, in the sense that his +mind ripened early. But there was nothing of the quality of smart, +self-satisfied immaturity about his genius. He read much, studied +deeply, and received some good training at the hands of Rev. Hugh Knox, +a Presbyterian minister. + +But all at once there occurred the accident which resulted in his going +to the continental colonies. In the late summer of 1772 a fearful +hurricane swept over the Leeward Islands. The boy Hamilton, then +fifteen years old, had his full share in the adventures attending this +calamity, and wrote a long and vivid account of it for a newspaper +published at St. Christopher. By this brilliant piece of news work the +entire West Indies were electrified. The people there had had plenty of +hurricanes before, but none of them had ever been adequately "written +up." Young Hamilton awoke one morning to find himself in the enjoyment +of a fame which extended all the way from Jamaica to Trinidad. + +The immediate result of this notoriety was to convince Alexander's +relatives that they possessed in him a prodigy, and to stimulate them to +find means to educate him. They raised a fund forthwith without any +particular difficulty, and shipped him, armed with a letter of +introduction from Rev. Mr. Knox, to Boston, en route to New York. +Lacking this assistance, it is unlikely that the youth would have found +his way to our shores. Perhaps he would, in spite of everything, have +risen to eminence in the West Indies. Very likely he would one day have +drifted to Scotland or England, and he might have become a famous man +there. But America would have lost him. + +There is still another and vital contingency associated with Hamilton's +removal to the American continent. On its way to Boston, while in the +open ocean, the ship on which he had sailed took fire. For some time it +was in danger of destruction. But with great difficulty the flames were +extinguished. If they had prevailed, the career of the West Indian +genius would doubtless have been cut short by death. + +Thus, by the aid, first, of a tropical hurricane, and, second, through +the efforts of the crew of the ship that bore him, in stifling a fire in +the hold, Alexander Hamilton reached the American colonies just in time +to be swept into the current of the movement for independence; to be +made over anew into an ardent American, and to put his stamp forever +upon the young nation which arose from the smoke of Bunker Hill. The +dark-skinned, dark-eyed, exotic-looking student at King's College, whom +the citizens of New York at first looked at askance as a very "queer +West Indian," became a great leader, a commander, a guide, a magnificent +constructive as well as restraining force. + +What this country would have been without him, or rather, what it must +forever have failed to be, may be inferred from the things which it +became that were owed to him. He was the inventor of American +protection. American industry was founded upon his "report on +manufactures." As the first and greatest of Federalists, he saved the +confederation from disruption by supplying the idea of central +authority. Others might labor for freedom--he labored for security. He +put reason at the bottom of our commonwealth. Without his principles, +the republic would have lacked a balance wheel. The States' rights would +have been everything--the nation's rights nothing. + +All our national expansion was wrapped up in Hamilton's views. McKinley +and Roosevelt have been his continuators. The sentiment which governs +our republic to-day is Hamiltonian; and the war and discord that have +afflicted us, as the result of the looseness of our confederation, must +long since have wrecked the nation but for the balance wheel with which +he supplied us. + + + + +CHAPTER XIII + +IF LA FAYETTE HAD HELD THE FRENCH REIGN OF TERROR IN CHECK + + +In every age of the world, and in every place, one voice has always +commanded in the affairs of nations, peoples and communities. If +oligarchies, legislatures, groups or cabals have seemed to bear sway, it +has nevertheless been true that in each of these groups, from time to +time, the influence of some individual has been preponderant. The freest +republics are an organization of this principle--a willing submission of +the many to the leadership of chosen men. + +In times of stress and strife and change it is impossible that strong +men should not seize the reins of power, no matter what political system +exists, no matter what anarchy tends to prevail. Change, indeed, makes +the opportunity of the strong; and the fate of nations and continents +depends upon the character of the strong man who is brought forth. If he +is good, as Washington was good, his fellow-countrymen derive lasting +and unmeasured benefit from his grasping of his opportunity. If he is +bad, as Napoleon Bonaparte was bad, the evil harvest of his vices may be +reaped through generations and centuries, as France has reaped, and is +now reaping, an inheritance of strife and national decline. + +When the Revolution of 1789 came to France there were many people, of +all parties and conditions, who believed that the country had its +Washington. He was to be found, they thought, in the person of the +Marquis de La Fayette. This man was Washington's friend. He had +successfully copied many of his virtues. He was unselfishly patriotic. +He believed in the liberty of the people, and wished to see them govern +themselves. Though himself a nobleman, he believed in the abolition of +titles of nobility. In his room, and afterward in his office as a public +servant, he kept two frames hanging on the wall. In one frame was a copy +of the American Declaration of Independence. The other frame was empty, +but it bore the legend, "This space awaits the French Declaration of +Independence." + +When the Revolution broke out, La Fayette was called by the people to +the center of real power--the command of the troops in Paris. Both king +and people trusted him. His power for good was almost absolute. He +prevented anarchy and restored order in Paris after the overthrow of the +Bastile. He gave the country a Bill of Rights and a Constitution founded +on the American models. The quarrels of the warring factions were +stayed by his hand. The mob dared not turn the king out. La Fayette's +moderating influence was the ballast that kept the French nation, in +spite of certain excesses, on a steady keel. + +Even when the Girondists and Jacobins rose and were ready to fly at one +another's throats, the fear of La Fayette kept these factions from +violence. If he had maintained this influence--if he had preserved the +sagacity and boldness to side with the people and lead them--the French +nation might have been saved from anarchy, reaction, the tyrannies of +emperors and of mobs, and the slow degeneration that has followed its +long diet of gunpowder. + +But in the test La Fayette did not exhibit this power. In 1792 he was in +the field, in command of an army, resisting the Prussian invasion. The +nation, aroused, was equal to the task of repelling foreign attack. But +in Paris events were marching. The people rose and overthrew the throne +and the royalist Constitution which La Fayette had made. But they turned +still to La Fayette. They offered him the chief executive power in the +new government. + +This was his opportunity to save France. He was not equal to it. He did +not rise to the emergency. He not only refused the offer of power, but +made his troops renew their oaths of fidelity to the king. Then the +Assembly declared him a traitor; and La Fayette, taking with him a few +followers, deserted his command, made his way to Bouillon, on the +frontier, and rode out of France into a foreign land! + +No man can imagine Washington taking such a step as that. La Fayette +suffered from it, and he afterwards served his country nobly. But the +eternal mischief of his weakness had been done. Girondists and Jacobins, +relieved from the fear of him, turned to mutual destruction and murder. +The Reign of Terror was on. The nation was plunged in an orgy of blood. +Four hundred thousand men and women were put to death. Liberty in France +was assassinated in the house of its friends. + +One man, I have said, always comes to the top of things. With La Fayette +gone, Robespierre, the man of blood, prevailed. Robespierre was the +Terror. And after him, the Terror having appeased its fearful thirst, +and Robespierre's head having gone into the basket with his victims', +there came another man to take advantage of the paralysis the perverted +Revolution had inflicted upon France. That man was Napoleon Bonaparte. + +Bonaparte freed La Fayette from captivity. Bonaparte held him in +contempt, calling him a "noodle." It was not so bad as that. But +Napoleon despised a man who had had his chance and failed to grasp it. + +Had La Fayette proved equal to that opportunity, France would have been +organized as a constitutional republic. The Terror would not have been. +Napoleon's ambition might have been held in check. The balance in Europe +would have been maintained, but the leadership of France would have been +consolidated and become immortal. The nations would have followed her +example. Monarchy would have died of dry rot. The dream of a United +States of Europe might have been realized--perhaps with a city of La +Fayette, the capital of the vast confederation, the European equivalent +city of Washington, smiling down, it may be, from the neutral shores of +the Lake of Constance to east, to west, to north, to south, with a +benediction of peace. + + + + +CHAPTER XIV + +IF GILBERT LIVINGSTON HAD NOT VOTED NEW YORK INTO THE UNION + + +How many Americans of the present day realize that the State of New +York, at the time of the adoption of the national Constitution, was +radically and overwhelmingly opposed to entrance into the Union which +the Constitution proposed, and was at last forced into the league of +States only by the demonstration that the State would be isolated and +cut off from its neighbor States if it did not join, with a tariff wall +raised against it? It is indeed hard for New Yorkers to realize, as +they live to-day under the Stars and Stripes, having forgotten what +their State flag is, and being among the most zealous supporters of the +Union, that their State led the opposition to the Constitution, and that +but for the influence of a very few men in two other States, New York +might have prevented the consummation of that "more perfect union." + +The contingency that prevented the State from dismembering the Union at +its start was a narrow one, but it had been provided for. Hamilton and +the Federalists had laid their plans well. They first furnished the +Southern States, and the smallest States in the North, with an +interested reason for joining the Union. They gave the men of the South +representation on their slaves. They made the little States equal with +the great States in the Senate. Then they provided that when nine States +had ratified the Constitution it should become effective, and a +confederation should be formed by those nine States, if there were no +others. + +Then the ratifications began. The game was to get nine States. Little +Delaware said "Yes" first. Franklin and Wilson had a firm hold upon +Pennsylvania, and that State entered next under the pressure they +exerted. New Jersey, Georgia, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maryland and +South Carolina followed. This made eight States. Then things stuck fast. +Would there be a ninth? + +Two thirds of the delegates in the convention of New York were firmly +opposed to ratification. They believed the Constitution meant an end of +the liberties of the States. They saw a royal throne looming up for +America. They feared, they said, a great central power which should +oppress and overtax the people of the States. Governor Clinton led the +opposition to ratification. Hamilton's able arguments had no effect. New +York would not come in. + +All the remaining States were believed to be also opposed. New Hampshire +had refused to comply with the requisitions of the Confederation; why +should it look with more favor on the Constitution? In Virginia, Patrick +Henry led the opposition to ratification with impassioned eloquence. +Richard Henry Lee, William Grayson, George Mason and James Monroe, all +great men in the State, were unalterably opposed to ratification. It +certainly looked black for the Union. + +But in this moment of apparent triumph, while the New York convention +was in session, Governor Clinton and his party in the convention heard +surprising news. New Hampshire, under the influence of Massachusetts and +of the wiser counsels of some of its own leaders, ratified the +Constitution on the 21st of June, 1788--more than nine months after the +adoption of the instrument by the Constitutional Convention at +Philadelphia. + +This event put a new face on the situation in New York. The Union was +now decreed. If New York did not enter it, she must be prepared to stand +alone, as an independent nation. Could she do that? The new +Confederation would hem her in on both sides. To it would belong New +Jersey, which flanked her only seaport on the west, and Connecticut and +Massachusetts, which walled her in on the east. The shape of the State +adapted it very badly indeed for an independent position. Moreover, +influences were known to be at work which would precipitate a hostile +tariff against the States which remained out of the Union. A few months +later such a tariff was actually adopted against Rhode Island, which was +treated as a foreign country in the levying of duties on imports. + +New York could not stand that. Gilbert Livingston and a few others +changed their votes under a distinct announcement that the pressure of +"sister States" had made it impracticable to continue the opposition. +But even at the last, the Constitution was ratified by a majority of +only two in a vote of sixty! Gilbert Livingston held the fate of the +State in his hands, and he, though pledged against the Union, put New +York into the Union by his vote. + +One vote would have kept New York out. + +We have noted the fact that New York's position was unfavorable for an +attempt at independence. But the fact that the voice of but one man +prevented the attempt shows that the other opposing delegates were not +much afraid of making the leap. Supposing Gilbert Livingston had voted +the other way, and the vote had been thirty-one to twenty-nine against +ratification, instead of the same figure in its favor? What would have +resulted? + +Let us see. Two other States were radically opposed to the +Constitution--Rhode Island and North Carolina. Very likely they would +have been glad to form a defensive alliance with New York. Virginia +ratified a few days after New Hampshire, but she might easily have +retracted her ratification, for she had no heart in it. With Virginia, +the malcontent States would have had (census of 1790) a population of +1,550,306, against 2,378,908 for the remaining colonies, including +Vermont, which was not yet in. This would not have been an utterly +hopeless foundation for a new league, constituted on the easy terms upon +which, and upon which only, these States were willing to enter the +Union. The want of contiguity of territory would have been the worst +objection to the formation of the league. + +But the real effect of New York's self-exclusion, so narrowly prevented, +would have been a negative one. It would have prevented all cohesion in +the new Union. It would have driven a wedge straight through the new +republic, from west to east. Worse, it would have erected secession into +a principle from the start. Ere long we should have had at least three +republics instead of one, and probably more. Politically we should have +been what Central and South America are now. Real progress would have +been barred. Wars would have been probable between the States. European +political influences would have penetrated the weaker States, or +alliances of States. + +In short, the "American idea," government of the people by the people +and for the people, would probably have been stillborn. By his change of +vote, Gilbert Livingston signed the death warrant of the principle of +secession. Not only did he set going the unifying influences which +prevailed over State sovereignty, but he decreed the Empire State, +destined to be a bulwark against disunion. + + + + +CHAPTER XV + +IF THE PIRATE JEAN LAFITTE HAD JOINED THE BRITISH AT NEW ORLEANS + + +After the battle of New Orleans, on the 8th of January, 1814, General +Andrew Jackson, the victorious commander, called before him a certain +officer, of dashing and Frenchy appearance, and publicly thanked him for +the important part which he had borne in the battle. To judge from the +signal honor done to this man, the credit for the victory was in no +inconsiderable part due to him. And, indeed, this was the case. + +The man to whom the victor's thanks had been thus conspicuously awarded +was Jean Lafitte, the Baratarian pirate. That the success of Jackson in +defeating and virtually destroying the army of Pakenham, consisting of +the very flower of the Duke of Wellington's soldiery, hinged, in an +important sense, upon this extraordinary corsair and buccaneer, has +never been adequately acknowledged in American history. + +Jean Lafitte, the foremost of the three pirate brothers of Barataria, +was a man of extraordinary influence and popularity among the French and +other Latin inhabitants of Louisiana and New Orleans. He was a native of +France, and a brave and chivalrous corsair, as corsairs go. A price had +already been put upon his head by the American governor, Claiborne. But +so secure was Lafitte in the affections of the Creole people, whom he +served in many ways, that he frequently attended parties and receptions +in New Orleans. Arriving, on such occasions, in the full splendor of his +outlaw state, and bringing joy to the heart of every lady in the room +by his attractive manners as well as by his fame, the pirate chief would +practically defy the authorities to lay a hand upon him. If agents of +the law were sent to arrest him, he knew of it, through a hundred spies, +long before they reached the place, and withdrew at once to some near-by +hiding place which was well known to him. In New Orleans he had a +hundred safe places of refuge. + +Under his command was a force of pirates who were many or few, according +to the exigencies of the moment; for they could masquerade as peaceful +fishermen if necessary, or they could, upon occasion, muster a force of +several hundred at a word's notice--always perfectly armed, perfectly +drilled, thoroughly redoubtable. + +Lafitte preyed impartially upon all the commerce of the Gulf of Mexico, +and, when pursued, ran into one of the numerous mouths of the +Mississippi or some inlet of the Gulf--into Barataria Lake, into Bayou +Lafourche, or into Bayou Teche. There it was vain to follow him, for the +intricacies of these passages were known only to his men or to the +dwellers along their shores, who were in sympathy with him. + +When the British descended upon New Orleans in the autumn of 1813, they +offered Jean Lafitte a captain's commission in the British naval +service, thirty thousand dollars in money, a full pardon for past +offenses and rewards in money and lands for his followers if he would +join them in making war on the Americans. He could easily have done so. +The French people of Louisiana had no keen loyalty for the Stars and +Stripes at that time. As Lafitte went they might have gone. The British +knew this, and made their bait a rich one. + +But Lafitte, although Claiborne's price was on his head, and his brother +Pierre in prison in New Orleans, refused the offer. Instead, he sent +the letters from Captain Lockyer, of the British navy, making this +proposition, to the Louisiana legislature. Later, after Pierre had +escaped, he actually joined General Jackson's nondescript army with a +force of riflemen. He seems to have acted from a very honest love for +the young American republic. + +Jackson, at first, under a misapprehension of the circumstances, had +refused to accept the aid of these "hellish banditti," as he had called +Lafitte's men in a proclamation on his arrival. But when he found that +the British were upon him, and that a considerable proportion of his +poorly equipped militia were without flints for their muskets, he not +only accepted the flints that Lafitte sent him, but gave the pirate an +important command on his right wing. There Jean and his men performed +signal service. + +If Lafitte had joined the British with his men and ships, there is +little likelihood that the Americans would have had in this fight the +powerful aid of the vessels of war _Carolina_ and _Louisiana_, on the +river. Nor is it likely that they would have had the passive support of +the French population. Nor that they would have found any substitute for +the flints with which Lafitte supplied them. And it is very likely that +the British assault upon Jackson's intrenchments would have been +attended with a different result. + +Jackson, indeed, might have been crushed very much as Windsor had been +crushed at Washington, not long before. + +Such a result at New Orleans would not have affected the outcome of the +war, for a peace favorable to the American arms had already been +declared at Ghent. But how profoundly a defeat would have influenced the +personal and political fortunes of Andrew Jackson and all the events in +American history which hung upon his subsequent career! + +General Jackson won the presidency in 1828 because he was the military +hero of the day. His popularity was due to the brilliant victory that he +won at New Orleans. After his defeat in 1824, a spectacular visit which +he made to the field of the 1814 battle renewed the souvenirs of the +great fight and intensified his popularity; and in 1828 he was +triumphantly elected. If he had been defeated in battle by Pakenham, and +New Orleans had been taken, his fame would have been extinguished then +and there. + +And without Jackson--should we ever have had machine politics? It was he +who introduced these into our government. He was the inventor and +discoverer of the spoils system. "To the victors belong the spoils" was +the maxim of his lieutenant, Marcy, and his own principle of action. We +have never been able quite to shake off the system which he fastened +upon the country. Patronage has been the curse of our politics from that +day to this. + +Then there was his determined and disastrous assault on the United +States Bank. Upon this institution, which was founded by Alexander +Hamilton, and whose position somewhat resembled the present position of +the Bank of England, the financial system of the country depended. +Jackson attacked it as a "wicked monopoly," as a concrete expression of +the "money power." He succeeded in wrecking the bank, in bringing on the +panic of 1837, which wrought untold ruin and disaster to the people, and +in inaugurating in its place the system of wildcat State banks and +currency chaos which lasted up to the Civil War. + +But Jackson attacked more than the United States Bank and the principle +that public office is a public trust. He attacked nullification. +Nullification meant that the States could refuse to recognize or obey +the laws of the United States. He struck that dictum hard, when it made +its appearance in South Carolina, and paralyzed it to such an extent +that the portion of the nation which did not believe in secession was +able to get its preponderant growth, and organize its strength, and +prevent disunion, when the test finally came. + +Jackson saved the Union by stunning the nullification snake until the +republic was big enough and strong enough to trample it under foot. And +that, no doubt, was the greatest event that hung on the contingency of +Lafitte's choice of sides at New Orleans. + + + + +CHAPTER XVI + +IF JAMES MACDONNEL HAD NOT CLOSED THE GATES OF HUGOMONT CASTLE + + +According to the Duke of Wellington himself, the success of the allies +at the Battle of Waterloo turned on an amazingly slight contingency, +namely, the closing of a gate or door of wood in the wall of a building. +This fact was conclusively brought out when, years after the battle, an +English clergyman, Rev. Mr. Narcross of Framlingham, died and left in +his will the sum of five hundred pounds simply "to the bravest man in +England." The executors of the estate were completely nonplussed. Who +was the bravest man in England? Doubtless many would have come forward +gladly to claim the distinction and the legacy, but who was worthy of +them? In their trouble, the executors applied to the Duke of Wellington +for an answer to the question. + +The Iron Duke was not a man to be beaten by any question whatsoever, +least of all by a military one. He went back a little in his +recollections--until he came to the battle of Waterloo. Then he wrote to +the executors of the Framlingham parson that that battle was the +greatest that had been fought in recent times. "The success of it," he +went on to say, "turned upon the closing of the gates of Hugomont; these +gates were closed in the most courageous manner, at the very nick of +time, by Sir James Macdonnel; and he is the man to whom you should pay +the five hundred pounds." + +Thereupon the executors went to Sir James with the money; but he said +to them: "I cannot claim all the credit of closing the gates of +Hugomont. My sergeant, John Graham, seeing with me the importance of the +step, rushed forward to help me; and by your leave I will share the +legacy with him." The request was granted, and the fact was to this +extent judicially established that Sir James Macdonnel and John Graham +had closed the gates of Hugomont Castle, thereby settling the issue of +the battle and the fate of Europe. + +Let us see what events hinged upon this act, and how they depended on +it. The army with which the great Napoleon faced the miscellaneous +assortment of British, Prussians, Hanoverians, Dutch and Belgians at +Waterloo was smaller than that of the Allies, but vastly more efficient +as a whole. Most of the troops of the Allies were raw, and some of them +were poor stuff indeed. Napoleon's soldiers were hardened, practiced, +brave and splendidly commanded. + +Napoleon had forced the Allies back at Quatre Bras. He captured their +position at La Haye Sainte. He perceived that the strategic key to the +whole field of battle was the hill crowned by the old stone _chateau_ of +Hugomont. If that could be taken, Napoleon would be able to attack and +turn Wellington's right flank. That accomplished, a junction of Bluecher +and his Prussians with the English would be prevented; the forces of the +Allies would be split in two, and Napoleon would in all probability +defeat them in detail, according to his time-honored method. The emperor +could easily have finished off the Austrians in their turn, as he +planned to do; and the combined European attempt to oust him would have +been frustrated. Thus the Corsican would have been, probably for so long +as he lived, the master of France at the least, even if the checks he +had already received had restricted his mastery of the rest of the +continent. + +Knowing well that upon this cast his fate was staked, Napoleon hurled +his best troops, under Prince Jerome, against the little old _chateau_ +on the hill. Again and again they assaulted it. Twelve thousand men were +launched against the half-dilapidated castle, which had been pierced +with loopholes for the British riflemen. And now and here came the +crucial incident whose importance was rated so high by Wellington. At a +moment when the chief defence of the _chateau_ was entrusted to the +Coldstream Guards, under Colonel James Macdonnel, the French were within +a hair's breadth of taking it. They pushed against the gate of the +castle, and had actually forced it open, when the Coldstream Guards +charged out with their bayonets, forcing the advance rank of the French +back a little. + +But the French were pouring up, and could no longer be held back at the +point of the bayonet. It was at this instant, when a slight leeway had +been gained, that Colonel Macdonnel and Sergeant Graham, under a galling +fire from the French, stepped forward and with their own hands closed +the _chateau_ gates, barricaded them, and thus enabled the troops to +resume their fierce rifle fire from within. + +After this the French made many more assaults on the heavy gates, but +could not force them open again. Wellington meanwhile commanded a +general advance, following a fresh repulse of the French onset; and the +French line was thrown into confusion. He knew that Bluecher was now at +hand--it was by this time half-past seven in the evening--to support +him. Bluecher, indeed, arrived, and attacked and crushed the broken +French right, forcing Napoleon to retreat in disorder. Thus was +completed the victory which the heroic defence of Hugomont had made +possible. + +The crushing of the British right wing on this occasion, had Napoleon +been able thus to effect it, would have reversed a vast deal of history. +It is not necessary to take an extreme view of the situation to realize +this. On the immediate field, the British, Dutch and Hanoverians must +have been forced back upon Brussels, and Bluecher would have been unable +to maintain a front against the French. Even if the remnants of the +allied armies had escaped, and made another stand, Napoleon must +instantly have regained a degree of prestige and position that would +have enabled him to consolidate his power at home and make excellent +terms abroad. Even after Leipsic, when he had seemed to be utterly +beaten, the powers had been willing to give him France's "natural +frontiers"--namely, the Rhine, the Alps and the Pyrenees. + +It is likely that Leipsic and Elba had already taught the emperor wisdom +which would have deterred him from attempting to carry the boundaries of +his domain once more to the Baltic, or to parcel out the rest of Europe +among his relatives and dependents. But within the frontiers I have +named, and west of the Rhine, he must have remained impregnable; and all +the momentous consequences which resulted from his defeat must have been +thwarted and turned aside. + +Out of the victory of the Allies at Waterloo came, first, the banishment +and early death of Napoleon Bonaparte; the placing of Louis XVIII on the +throne of France; the complete subduing of the Revolution; the creation +of the joint kingdom of Holland and Belgium (which meant the modern +intensely industrialized Belgian state, and Leopold, and the Congo); the +aggrandizement and lasting leadership of Prussia in Germany; the +foundation of the modern Italy through the annexation of the Genoese +republic to the Piedmont kingdom; the enlargement of Switzerland by +three cantons taken from France; the taking of Norway from Denmark and +its bestowal upon Sweden; the absorption of what was left of Poland by +Russia--and some other reparceling of territory in an arbitrary sense +which has nevertheless for the most part endured. There is scarcely a +political articulation in Europe to-day which does not date from +Waterloo; new tendencies still operate which had their inception then! + +Indirectly the consequences were momentous. The aggrandizement of +Prussia prepared the way for the unification of Germany and the gradual +atrophy of Austria as a German state. As I have said, the enlargement of +Piedmont foretokened a united Italy, and built up another power which +has contributed to the enforced shrinkage of Austria. The two great +constructive European statesmen of the nineteenth century, Bismarck and +Cavour, were both the children of Waterloo. + +All these tendencies might have been working just the other way if +Colonel Macdonnel had not succeeded in closing the _chateau_ gates! Yet +more still was in store. Moral and intellectual consequences of greater +moment, perhaps, than the political results, impended. The victory of +the Allies was followed by a period of severe repression of popular +tendencies in Europe. The Holy Alliance, which became a league of +Continental monarchs against liberal ideas, was a direct consequence. It +inaugurated reaction everywhere. And reaction bred in its turn new and +insidious radicalisms. Lassalle, Marx, St. Simon, and Fourier, +Socialists, and Bakunin and Proudhon, first of the Anarchists, were the +offspring of the Holy Alliance, nurtured in the dark corners of +Repression's jail. + +The course of events in Europe would have been far otherwise indeed if +Napoleon's veterans, forcing their way into Hugomont and splitting the +British strength in two, had prepared the way for a long lease of the +power of that adroit and calculating master, who knew so well how to +meet popular demands and still hold his personal sway. In its practical +expression, his system was liberal. Every peasant proprietor in France +to-day holds his acres by virtue of Napoleonic legislation. + +That does not mean that all would have been good in France; far from +that. A strange falsity, a theatric insincerity, lay beneath all the +Napoleonic sentiments and ideals. These qualities color the thought of +France still. Will she ever be able to escape them? These tendencies +would have been many times more powerful if Napoleon had entrenched +himself upon the throne. More than that, they must have passed to other +countries. The shadow of his eagles might lie athwart even our America, +his insidious ideas expressing themselves in our politics and our +intellectual and moral life, if that moment's vast contingency had gone +Napoleon's way at Waterloo. + + + + +CHAPTER XVII + +IF ABRAHAM LINCOLN'S FATHER HAD MOVED SOUTHWARD, NOT NORTHWARD + + +The two sections in the Civil War in America were led by two men, +Abraham Lincoln and Jefferson Davis, the one President of the United +States and the other President of the Confederate States, who were born +within about one hundred miles of each other in the State of Kentucky, +and within nine months of each other in point of time. For it was in +June, 1808, that Jefferson Davis first saw the light in Christian +County, Kentucky, and in February, 1809, that Abraham Lincoln was born +in Hardin County, in the same State. + +Samuel Davis, the father of Jefferson Davis, and Thomas Lincoln, the +father of Abraham Lincoln, were men of the same English-American origin, +and the families were originally of virtually the same class, though +Thomas Lincoln, doubtless as the result of the death of his father at +the hands of the Indians, when Thomas was a child, had fallen somewhat +in the social scale. Both men became dissatisfied with material +conditions in Kentucky at about the same time, and both emigrated with +their families. But Samuel Davis went southward into Mississippi, while +Thomas Lincoln went northward into Indiana. + +That the sons of both these Kentuckians had in them the fire of genius, +the history of their country has abundantly proved. Each was destined by +the compelling force of his character and gifts to play a great part. +Like all other men, each was molded by his environment. The illiterate +Thomas Lincoln was credited by his immortal son with the intention, in +emigrating, to escape from a slave State. But is it not probable that +the son, deeply preoccupied as he was in later years with the subject of +the emancipation of the slaves, had projected backward, by a psychologic +habit common to all mankind, this idea from his own mind into that of +his father? In all probability no other motive than that of accident or +convenience--for Thomas Lincoln was a poor and rather "shiftless" +man--impelled Abraham Lincoln's father to go to Indiana instead of +following the trail which so many of the more enterprising Kentuckians +were taking to Mississippi or Louisiana. It was to that section that +enterprise beckoned, for agriculture was carried on in the Southwest +upon a large scale, and broader plantations were open to the adventuring +settler. Indiana, on the other hand, was a "poor man's country." + +What if Thomas Lincoln had possessed a little more energy, and a few +more shillings, and had gone to Mississippi instead of to Indiana and +afterwards to Illinois? What if he had become a plantation and slave +owner, and had thus subjected his boy Abraham to the overmastering +influence of a southern environment? So far as I can recall, Mississippi +never produced an anti-slavery man. + +In this event, there would have been for the national cause, for the +saving of the Union, for the emancipation of the slaves, no Abraham +Lincoln. On the other hand, the tremendous power and patience of +Lincoln's nature, the majesty and greatness of his character, the +resources of his intellect, would in all likelihood have been added to +the sum of the statesmanship which was enlisted on the Southern side. + +It is even conceivable that Lincoln, rather than Davis, would have been +the president of the Southern Confederacy. Only a combination of the +most extraordinary circumstances made him the nominee of the Republican +party for the presidency in 1860. If he had been the leading statesman +and politician of Mississippi, his path to the Confederate presidency, +as the success of Davis proved, would have been comparatively easy. + +Without Lincoln, the anti-slavery agitation would have gone on just the +same. The Republican party would have been constituted just the same. +Everything up to the 18th day of May, 1860, when Lincoln was nominated +for president at the Wigwam in Chicago, would have gone on just the +same. But lacking Lincoln, what a world of things afterward would have +happened differently! + +In the first place, it is probable that Seward would have been nominated +for president. Very likely he would not have been elected; and as it was +Lincoln who "smoked out" Douglas, it is probable that Douglas would +have prevailed over all other Democratic candidates and been nominated +at Charleston and elected president. + +In which case there would have been no secession, and very likely no +war, either at that time or later. Slavery would have become intrenched, +to yield, perhaps, in the end only to economic influences, the operation +of which had already doomed it. + +But if Seward had been nominated and elected, secession would have taken +place and war would have resulted. The sort of leader that the Union +would have had in Seward may be inferred with perfect certainty from the +famous, or rather infamous, proposition entitled, "Some Thoughts for the +President's Consideration," which Seward solemnly laid before Lincoln +less than a month after his inauguration. This extraordinary document, +one of the most senseless and wicked programmes ever prepared by a man +of state, advocated a change of the national issue from slavery to a +foreign war; it advised that war be at once declared against France and +Spain, and "explanations demanded" from Great Britain and Russia! In +order that this brilliant programme might be carried out successfully, +Seward suggested that he himself be made Dictator! + +This scheme, I repeat, illustrated the sort of alternative material that +we should have had, lacking Lincoln. Chase, indeed, who was also a +leading candidate for the presidency, would have been wiser. But in no +position that he ever held, after 1860, did Chase bring forth any of the +fruits of genius. Cameron, of Pennsylvania, was a greater man, but did +not command general support. Neither did Edward Bates, of Missouri, also +a western candidate for the presidency. + +The great soldiers who finally triumphed in the field as the +instruments of Lincoln's policy and fought their way to victory for the +Union--Grant, Sherman, Thomas, Meade, Sheridan--would have been ranged +on the Northern side just the same whether Lincoln or another had been +at the head of affairs. But it is doubtful whether another president +would have found them out. Lincoln made his own grave mistakes regarding +men. But he put forward no general because that general was _his man_. +He observed and waited. A man of the people himself, grandly simple, he +somehow nosed out the men of the same type. All the generals who proved +great were his discoveries. + +The structure of Lincoln's achievements was not, however, the result of +negative circumstances. It did not rise because things were not just so +and so. It was a positive thing--the result of the active operations of +a powerful genius, which the people recognized before the politicians +and the writers did. In the people's mind, the war was "Old Abe's" war. +It was Old Abe who stood at the helm. Congress did not know it, but it +was really working Lincoln's will. The cabinet did not always know it, +but it was Lincoln who really had his way. He kept his own counsel. He +carried out his plans. + +The people were right. It was Old Abe who was doing things. And without +him the most important things would have gone undone. He was an original +creation--as Lowell said, a "new birth of our new soil, the first +American." Nature, for him, threw aside her old-world molds, + + And, choosing sweet clay from the breast + Of the unexhausted West, + With stuff untainted shaped a hero new, + Wise, steadfast in the strength of God, and true. + +Yet what could be clearer than that Abraham Lincoln, who by birth and +inheritance was of the South, not the West, might have turned his +strength to the support of quite a different cause if the accident of +fate had sent him southward, not northward, in his childhood? + + + + +CHAPTER XVIII + +IF SKIPPER JENNINGS HAD NOT RESCUED CERTAIN SHIPWRECKED JAPANESE + + +Toward the end of the year 1850, Captain Jennings, of the American bark +_Auckland_, trading in Asiatic waters, picked up the shipwrecked crew of +a Japanese fishing vessel, somewhere off the coast of Japan. The captain +was then bound for the new port of San Francisco, which the California +gold-diggings had already made an important city. He continued on his +course, and in due time--that is to say, very early in the year +1851--landed at San Francisco with his party of refugees. + +Here the bright little Orientals were more than a nine days' wonder. +Few Americans had ever before seen a Japanese. That country was at the +time more a "hermit nation" than Korea herself. Whalers and other +sailors who had been wrecked on the Japanese coast had been put to cruel +deaths. No white men except the Dutch had been permitted to trade with +any of the Japanese cities, and the Dutch trade had fallen into decay. +Japan seemed as far from our lives as is the planet Mars. + +But the Japanese whom Captain Jennings had humanely rescued were kindly +treated by him, and on the homeward voyage they had endeared themselves +to him and his crew. He landed them at San Francisco with very favorable +reports of their character, conduct and intelligence. The free-handed +miners of that town wanted nothing better than somebody or something to +lionize. So for a considerable time the shipwrecked Japanese had the +best of everything in San Francisco, until an opportunity arose to send +them, fat and happy, back to their own country. + +A full account of the incident and of the refugees was published in one +of the San Francisco papers. It fell into the hands of just one man who +was capable of perceiving the momentous possibilities that lay in the +occurrence. This man was a commodore in the United States navy; and his +name was not Perry, as the reader may at first surmise, but John H. +Aulick. He was a Virginian, then in his sixty-second year; he had had a +long and very honorable service, and was keen and statesmanlike in his +ideas. + +What Commodore Aulick saw in the incident was this: The kind and +friendly reception of the Japanese waifs in America, contrasted with the +ordinary treatment of white refugees in Japan, might be taken advantage +of to open friendly relations with Japan. To effect this result, a +naval expedition should be sent to Japan. If properly conducted, the +expedition not only might secure friendly treatment of American whalers +on the Japanese coasts, but might open up trade relations with the +country which would be highly profitable. + +Filled with his idea, which was really a great one, Commodore Aulick +obtained permission to lay it before the secretary of state, who was +none other than Daniel Webster. He had an interview with Mr. Webster at +Washington on the 9th day of May, 1851. + +Webster saw the point at once. At his instance, President Fillmore +ordered the navy department to prepare a small expedition for the voyage +to Japan; and when the ships were ready--they were headed by the sloop +of war _Mississippi_--Commodore Aulick was put in command. He actually +sailed on the voyage; but he was entrusted with the task of taking the +Brazilian minister as far as Rio Janeiro on the way, and some trouble +having arisen with this functionary for which Commodore Aulick was +blamed, he was superseded in command of the expedition by Commodore +Matthew Calbraith Perry, in command of the _Hartford_. + +It was Perry, therefore, who "opened up Japan." His name will be +associated, as long as the story of the two nations is told, with the +event. But it was Aulick's idea, not Perry's; and it all hung upon the +luck which those Japanese fishermen, waifs upon a boundless ocean, had +in being picked up by a generous Yankee skipper, and in finding their +way to so wholehearted and so hospitable a city toward "Mongolian" +wanderers as San Francisco was--then! + +If this incident had not suggested and been followed by the Aulick-Perry +expedition, what then? Russian authorities have claimed that Russia was +preparing a similar expedition at the time when Secretary Webster--"too +zealous," according to their view--sent the United States ships on their +way. There is good reason to believe that the Russian government would +have been slow in making such an infinitely clever move as the Perry +expedition constituted. Yet if the United States had not taken the step, +Russia would have stood next in the line of logical inheritance to the +idea. And if Japan had been opened under Russian auspices, its doors, +instead of standing open toward the East, and consequently toward _our_ +West, would have opened toward the Asiatic continental West, which would +have meant toward St. Petersburg. + +If the Japanese had, under Russian initiative, adopted the material +adjuncts of western civilization, as they finally did under ours, that +civilization would have taken on a distinctly Muscovite color. The +Japanese would never, indeed, have been able, under such auspices, to +organize an effective resistance to Russian arms, for long before they +had acquired the requisite training they must have been held firmly in +the grip of the Russian military system. + +That is to say, Japan would have been, step by step, annexed to the +Russian empire. The Russo-Japanese war would never have been, since +there would have been neither hope nor occasion for it. Most of the rich +fruits of Japanese art and industry would have drifted toward Russia. +The Russian empire would have been enormously enriched by the Japanese +trade, and the importance of that empire immensely magnified in the +history of our epoch. A reflex orientalizing influence would have rolled +over Russia itself, and the course of Russian internal development +altered in a degree now almost incalculable. + +If Russia had not been reasonably prompt to take the step, the eyes of +British statesmen must sooner or later have been opened to the +opportunity. The method by which British intervention proceeds in +Asiatic countries is well known. It has always had but slight regard for +native sovereignty, no matter how high the state of social or artistic +or intellectual development on the part of the native races affected. +British administrators, or, if Japan had retained its nominal +sovereignty, British "residents" or agents, would really have governed +the country through the Tycoon or the Mikado, or both--preferably the +Tycoon, for he was a military ruler, and affairs could have been handled +more readily through him. + +Events in Japan must have anticipated the subsequent history of Egypt, +on a much more magnificent scale. Again, though there would have been a +readier entrance for American and European trade than in the case of +Russian intervention, the best of everything Japanese would certainly +have gone to England. And once again, the free, independent, powerful, +masterful Japanese empire of the present day, thrilling with a new life +in which all the civilization of the Occident is made the handmaid of an +ancient and undaunted Asiatic people, would not have been. + +In the unlikely event that the Japanese, in default of Perry's +expedition, had been left quite alone for another generation or two, +their case would not have been better in the long run. They would simply +have missed the chance they got. Left a "hermit nation," they would +sooner or later have fallen under the influence of one Western country +or another, and been so seriously retarded in the race of civilization +that they could never have caught up. + +America was the only country that could have opened to them the +wonderful career that they have had. The high noon of the nineteenth +century was the golden moment for the commencement of their development +along the line of Western civilization. If the hour had not struck then +for them it would not have struck at all. Time, the helping hand, the +protecting influence of an unselfish friend among the nations, and the +golden gift of destiny, were all represented for Japan in the rescuing +sails of Skipper Jennings's bark, that lucky day in the wide Pacific. + + + + +CHAPTER XIX + +IF ORSINI'S BOMB HAD NOT FAILED TO DESTROY NAPOLEON III + + +Edward A. Freeman wrote, after the fall of the second Bonaparte empire: +"The work of Richelieu is utterly undone, the work of Henry II and Louis +XIV is partially undone; the Rhine now neither crosses nor waters a +single rood of French ground. As it was in the first beginnings of +northern European history, so it is now; Germany lies on both sides of +the German river." This was not by any means the whole of the work +wrought by that adventurer on an imperial throne, Napoleon III, through +his disastrous war against a united Germany. He accomplished also the +slaughter of five hundred thousand men, and the impoverishment of +millions. He sounded the death knell of monarchical adventuring in +France, which was indeed one good result of the Napoleonic _debacle_, +but he also fastened militarism, in the form of excessive and +progressively increasing peace armaments, upon Europe, and magnified +public debts and taxation to the limit of endurance. + +Every event here mentioned was a direct development, not of Napoleon +III's original seizure of the French throne, but of the final years, and +the eventual overthrow of his power--the overthrow itself due to the +Franco-Prussian war. A single event, criminal in its character, might +have prevented these results. That great benefits sometimes eventuate +from men's crimes is no news, and no longer a marvel, to the +philosopher, who, when good comes of evil, is apt to repeat the words, +"God moves in a mysterious way his wonders to perform." + +The evil deed to which I have here referred, which would have saved the +lives of five hundred thousand people and left the river Rhine still +washing the confines of France, was the aiming of Orsini's bomb on the +evening of the 14th of January, 1858. This bomb was designed to take the +life of the emperor of the French. If the attempt had succeeded, and +Napoleon had died as Alexander II of Russia and King Humbert of Italy +afterward died, there would have been no Franco-German war. The throne +of the baby Napoleon IV, who was then less than two years old, very +likely would not have endured long; but whether the third republic had +immediately arisen, or whether the Orleans Bourbons had been restored to +the throne, it would have been found easy to preserve the peace with +Prussia and Germany. + +For Napoleon III deliberately, and with malignant ingenuity, provoked +war with Germany in 1870. There is now no doubt that Bismarck desired +such a war. He afterward confessed that he deceived the aged King +William in such a way that all chance of peace at Ems was lost. But +nevertheless the provocation of Napoleon was direct and deliberate. + +His grievance was that the Hohenzollern prince, Leopold, had consented +to become a candidate for the vacant throne of Spain. King William +withdrew Prince Leopold's candidature. This really destroyed Napoleon's +pretext for bringing on a war. But he desired a foreign war in order to +forestall revolutionary opposition at home, which threatened to become +irresistible. Napoleon thereupon caused his ambassador, Benedetti, +insolently, and in a manner quite unbearable, to demand personally from +King William a declaration that no Hohenzollern should ever be +permitted to become king of Spain. King William treated this insolence +as it deserved, and France, thereupon, declared war against Prussia. + +What followed, the world knows. The consequences were tremendous. France +was maimed of Alsace and Lorraine. Half a million of the flower of the +manhood of both nations perished. France taxed herself with five +millions of francs of indemnity, and though she has paid the debt to +Germany, she still owes it to her own citizens. The difficulties of +French government and finance were increased prodigiously and +indefinitely by the war and the empire's delinquencies. + +And all as a result contingent upon the failure of a criminal act! +Felice Orsini meant to kill Napoleon III, and he and his two companions +did kill ten innocent persons, and did wound one hundred and fifty +others. Yet the man for whom their bombs were intended--the adventurer +who had once been their comrade as a member of the Italian secret +society, the Carbonari, but who had afterward betrayed the cause of +Italian independence by leading an army into the peninsula and restoring +the papal power--escaped unharmed, to wind the trail of his infamous +conspiracies through European politics for twelve years longer. If the +bomb had done its direful work, one man, utterly without character or +conscience, would have died, and five hundred thousand men, mostly +honest, good and true, would have lived. As it happened, the one man was +spared, to make a vast holocaust of human life twelve years later. + +It is, indeed, strange that the averting of a single crime may sometimes +precipitate a myriad of other crimes. + + + + +CHAPTER XX + +IF PRESIDENT BUCHANAN HAD ENFORCED THE LAW IN NOVEMBER, 1860 + + +Speaking of the lighting of the fires of civil war in this country in +the years 1860 and 1861, Charles Francis Adams said, in 1873, "One +single hour of the will displayed by General Jackson would have stifled +the fire in its cradle." The metaphor in the last phrase is peculiar, +and strangely Celtic for a Yankee, but the history is true. + +Montgomery Blair expressed the idea with greater plainness and vividness +in that same year, 1873, in these words, "If we could have held Fort +Sumter, there never would have been a drop of blood shed." Both these +remarks were made by men who had been in some sense actors in the events +to which they referred, and made after years of reflection upon the +circumstances. + +It does not seem to Americans of the present generation that there was +ever a moment, after the election of Abraham Lincoln, when the Civil War +could have been averted. It appears, in retrospect, to have been +absolutely inevitable. Yet there was certainly one moment when, if +President Buchanan had had the courage to apply the general views which +he himself advanced in his annual message to Congress of December 3, +1860, and his special message of January 8, 1861, which explicitly +denied the right of secession, a halt might have been called to the +growing rebellion. + +The secession movement was at first concentrated in the State of South +Carolina. That State, all through the winter of 1860-1861, was +presenting to the rest of the South an object lesson of successful +nullification. + +In 1833 South Carolina had ordained nullification, but its ordinance was +so instantly and heavily repressed by President Andrew Jackson that the +State was absolutely unable to carry it out, or to move hand or foot. +But now, in 1860, it did not merely ordain nullification--it enacted it. +Every Federal judge, every judicial servant, and nearly every Federal +official, in South Carolina, resigned, and the nation was left without +an agent to enforce its laws, for no new ones were sent in. The United +States authority in the State was at an end, save for the custom house +at Charleston and Fort Moultrie in Charleston harbor. + +As long as South Carolina was let alone, her case plainly said to all +the other slave States, "You see we can withdraw from the Union; we have +withdrawn from the Union; and the Union takes no step to keep us in; +you can do the same thing." + +At this time North Carolina and Virginia were opposed to secession. +Governor Sam Houston, of Texas, stood like a rock against it. Kentucky, +Maryland, Missouri, never seceded. Other States were wavering. A great +deal depended on the degree of success which South Carolina, the leader +in the revolt, might have. And it was Buchanan who permitted South +Carolina's success to become apparently complete, though in the message +to which I have referred the president declared that secession was +"wholly inconsistent with the Constitution," that "no human power could +absolve him (the president) from his duty to enforce the laws," and that +the danger of national disruption was upon the country. Buchanan, in his +December message, actually quoted Jackson's solemn denunciation of the +doctrine that a State had a right to separate itself from the Union. + +But while he was making these terrible admissions of his own duty, what +was Buchanan doing? Instead of holding up the hands of the nation's +representatives in South Carolina, he was weakening them. Instead of +strengthening the Federal garrison in Charleston harbor, he permitted +it to dwindle until it was powerless to take a single step. Not one act, +indeed, did he perform, but contented himself with calling on Congress +for legislation to meet the emergency. And out of Congress, of course, +he could get nothing, for the Southern representatives would vote for no +such legislation, and the Republican members were bent upon waiting +until Lincoln, who had been elected president, came in in March, and the +northern Democrats were paralyzed with pusillanimity. + +So South Carolina went on proving to the other slave States that it +could "go it alone." One after another these other States seceded from +the Union. Northern arsenals were stripped of arms. Southern officers +went out of the army one by one, and made ready to organize the army of +the new Confederacy which was forming under the president's nose. + +It was a time for the strong arm, and for quick, decisive, Jacksonian, +and not at all squeamish, action. But no such action was taken. The +golden moment was lost, and when, three months afterward, Lincoln came +in at last, war, with all its horrors, was upon the country. + +If the young rebellion had been truly nipped in the bud, as it might +have been, by a rigid enforcement, in November and December, 1860, of +Federal judicial processes in South Carolina; if the laws of the United +States had been enforced in that State at the point of the bayonet, if +need be; if a Federal functionary, sustained by an ample force of United +States troops, had torn South Carolina's ordinance of secession into +shreds on the steps of the capitol at Columbia, with no tender regard +for South Carolina's interpretation of the Constitution, is it likely +that South Carolina's sister States would have been so prompt at +seceding? + +Very likely it might not have been necessary to do any of these things. +If Buchanan had merely stood up and said, as Jackson did in 1833, "I +shall enforce the laws of the United States in spite of any and all +resistance that may be made," there might well have been no more of +secession in 1860 or 1861 than there had been of real nullification in +1833. + +And if this step had been taken, and there had been no war, what then? +What about slavery? it may be asked. Is it conceivable that northern +sentiment would have permitted chattel slavery to continue? Was not war +inevitable on that main question alone? Let us see. The sentiment for +absolute and sudden emancipation was the product of the war. Lincoln +was not an Abolitionist. The Republican party was not Abolitionist. + +Without war, but with the Southern States held within the Union, +sentiment in the North would have been favorable to a compromise which +would have prevented the extension of slavery; and events would surely +have brought about a gradual liberation of the blacks in the South, as +events soon ended slavery in Brazil and Cuba. The institution was +doomed, morally and economically. + +But there would have been no negro suffrage. That was enforced by +conditions which grew out of the war. The South would not have been +impoverished, and it could have afforded a gradual education of the +negro in such a way as to fit him for free industry, and, in a limited +way, for the exercise of the suffrage. There would have been no +disturbing reversal of the position of the two races, to be followed by +a violent restoration of white supremacy and an accompanying +development of inveterate hostility between whites and blacks. The +sections would not have drifted apart in industrial conditions and +social constitution as they did under the influence of the war; we +should not have had, perhaps, a money-mad North to counterbalance a +ruined, desolated, disheartened South. + +And where, at Antietam, at Gettysburg, at Fredericksburg, at +Chattanooga, and on many humbler fields, the flags wave over the even +ranks of myriads of soldier graves, the mocking-birds would sing in +thickets which the bullet's hiss and the shriek of the shell had never +profaned, while their teeming populations of dead men would either be +alive to-day or entombed among their loved ones after lives of peaceful +usefulness. + + + + +CHAPTER XXI + +IF THE CONFEDERATES HAD MARCHED ON WASHINGTON AFTER BULL RUN + + +There have been a great many attempts to excuse or minimize the failure +of General Joseph E. Johnston to follow up the tremendous Confederate +victory won by his second in command, General G. T. Beauregard, at Bull +Run, July 21, 1861. That the Federal army was beaten literally to a pulp +there can be no doubt. General Irwin McDowell, who commanded the Union +forces, officially reported, after the battle, that all his troops were +in flight "in a state of utter disorganization." "They could not," he +wired on July 22d, "be prepared for action by to-morrow morning even +were they willing. The larger part of the men are a confused mob, +entirely demoralized." They were actually running away in such a state +of panic that they could not get away, for commissary and ammunition +wagons, congressmen's and other spectators' horses and carriages, +artillery and sutlers' wagons were blocking the road, and panicstricken +soldiers were falling over one another. When General McClellan came to +take command after McDowell had been superseded, he reported this state +of affairs: "I found no army to command--a mere collection of regiments +cowering on the banks of the Potomac, some perfectly raw, others +dispirited by defeat." + +To reach the spot where the beaten raw recruits were thus cowering, +General Johnston and General Beauregard had to advance only twenty +miles, over a road every foot of which was well known to them. That the +Federal army was in ignominious flight they were well aware, for they +reported it joyfully to the government at Richmond. Why did they settle +down into utter inaction and allow McClellan to fortify the capital and +organize, drill and inspire with hope and confidence a great army? + +There are a good many "ifs" in connection with the actual fighting of +the battle of Bull Run, but this "if" that comes after it--if the elated +and triumphant Confederate army had immediately advanced to the Potomac, +invested the intrenchments at Arlington Heights and, very likely, +effected a crossing above or near the Great Falls of the river, and +flanked the capital of the Union--is the greatest and most interesting +of them all. + +General Beauregard actually commanded at the battle on the 21st, because +General Johnston, who ranked him, had but just arrived on the scene and +was unfamiliar with the ground and the disposition of the troops. But +he, Johnston, became responsible for the further prosecution of the +campaign, once the battle was won. It was in large measure his fault +that the fruits of victory were not reaped. + +The commonly accepted explanation of the matter is that the Confederates +were "almost as much disorganized by victory as the Federals were by +defeat;" that they had no fresh troops and no cavalry with which to +pursue, and that Arlington Heights were too well fortified to be +attacked. + +But General Beauregard, sore at the attempt to rob him of the laurels of +victory, has been able to show that all of the Confederate brigades of +Ewell, Holmes, D. R. Jones and Longstreet, and two regiments of Bonham's +brigade, were perfectly fresh and unharmed after the fight; that Early's +brigade had hardly been under fire; that new regiments had come up +during the day; that the fresh troops in all numbered at least fifteen +thousand; that more than half the Confederate army, in fact, had not +been engaged--a very unusual proportion after an important battle. "The +remaining forces, after a night's rest," says Beauregard himself, "would +have been instantly reorganized and found thoroughly safe to join the +advance." + +Apparently nothing but shame on the Northern side, and an unwillingness +on the Southern side to discredit their great generals, has prevented a +full acknowledgment of the fatal tactics which prevented an advance on +the Potomac after Bull Run. + +Now let us see what would have resulted from a Confederate investment of +Washington in the summer of 1861. Federal troops had already been +attacked in the streets of Baltimore. That city was preponderantly +disloyal, and had to be garrisoned with Union troops. Missouri had not +yet been won to the Union. Maryland, Delaware and Kentucky, all of +which were necessary to the maintenance of the Northern position, were +slave States, and their loyalty was doubtful. If the capital of the +Union had been taken, all these States, in spite of their previous +unwillingness to join the secession movement, would probably have been +impelled by strong self-interest to range themselves on the side of the +other slave States; and the Confederacy would have been strengthened by +the addition of at least four States. + +There was an important party among the Confederates from the western +Southern States--it was led by Postmaster-General John H. Reagan and +included General Albert Sidney Johnston--who believed in advancing at +the very outset into Kentucky and making the Ohio River the first line +of Southern defense. The plan was rejected by Davis and his advisers. It +was an unfortunate rejection. The Confederacy was finally beaten +because it was flanked in the west and cut in two at Vicksburg. But if +Washington had been captured or invested after Bull Run, it is certain +that the Confederate line would have been pushed to the Ohio, and it +would probably have been held there. The advantage gained by McClellan +in West Virginia would have been lost, for he would practically have +found himself within the Confederate lines and would have been compelled +to withdraw into Pennsylvania. + +Even as matters were, the position of the Union was highly precarious +all through the summer and autumn of 1861. There were signs of a demand +for peace in the North. Lincoln's own party was turning against him. The +sympathy of Europe was rapidly passing over to the Confederacy. But so +long as Lincoln stood firm in the White House and Congress sat at the +capital, "the government at Washington still lived," and the people +felt it. The truce so kindly, so inexplicably permitted by Davis and Lee +and Johnston enabled McClellan to organize and drill a great army, to +fortify the capital, to spread renewed confidence in the North, and, in +short, to establish a fulcrum for future victory. + +This was not the last time that opportunity knocked at the door of the +Confederacy. It knocked again, and loudly, as will be shown in the next +chapter, the same year. Either event, taken alone, appears decisive. For +as we contemplate the events of the 21st of July, 1861, it quite appears +as if the flag of two republics--three, perhaps, and conceivably +four--might have been flying over this great American domain to-day if +Johnston had pressed his advance down the Warrenton turnpike early +Monday morning, July 22d. Wars, divisions, European intrusion, +retrogression and darkness would have been America's fate, instead of +that imperial advance, with liberty and union, which has dazzled and +heartened the whole world. + + + + +CHAPTER XXII + +IF THE CONFEDERATE STATES HAD PURCHASED THE EAST INDIA COMPANY'S FLEET +IN 1861 + + +In the preceding chapter I have noted the disastrous consequences of the +rejection of John H. Reagan's plan, urged at Montgomery at the very +foundation of the Confederacy, for the prompt occupation of the south +bank of the Ohio River as the advanced line of defense, and the equally +unfavorable result of the failure of Johnston to press on to the Potomac +after the great success at Manassas. Gettysburg was a pivotal combat, +also; for if Lee had been supported by Stuart's cavalry on that +occasion, there is at least a possibility that the war's tide might have +been turned then and there. + +But there was a narrower contingency than either one of these. To a +positively decisive extent, the success of the National forces in +subjugating the Southern States turned on the sea power. The conquest of +the Confederacy was in fact a matter of supreme difficulty as it was; +and if the South had possessed a respectable navy, and had been able to +keep its ports open and steadily exchange its cotton in Europe for the +materials and munitions of war, the conquest would not have been +possible at all. + +The chance for the establishment of such a navy lay within the grasp of +the Confederate statesmen, and was by them let slip. Neither they, nor +any one else at the time, realized how easy the thing would have been. + +It is first necessary to explain in what situation the National +government was, at the outset of the war, in the matter of a naval +force. Nominally the United States navy consisted of ninety vessels, but +of these fifty were utterly obsolete and unusable except as supply +ships. Of the other forty, twenty were in a state of hopeless +unreadiness. Several of the best ships were in the remotest corners of +the world. The home squadron was composed of twelve ships, of which only +seven were steamers! Nearly fifty years after the invention of steam +navigation, the United States depended principally upon sailing vessels +for its defense. Only three trustworthy warships were left in Northern +waters for the defense of such ports as New York, Boston and +Philadelphia. + +As between the North and the South, the chance to wield the sea power +lay with the one of the two rival governments which should first put on +the water even a very small fleet of ironclad, steam-driven vessels. The +Confederacy proved afterward what power could be exerted in this +direction with but one single ironclad, when the _Merrimac_ destroyed or +scattered all the ships in Hampton Roads, for a moment threatened +Washington and the Northern cities with ravage, and was checked at last +only by the almost providential appearance of another ironclad, +Ericsson's little _Monitor_, on the scene. And the _Alabama's_ armor of +chains made her for a time almost a match for the United States navy. + +By what means could the Confederacy have forestalled the North in the +provision of a really effective navy? The chance, as I have said, was +offered, and declined, with fatal want of foresight. It lay in the ten +steamships of the English East India Company, which in 1861 was winding +up its affairs. These ships were offered to the Confederacy at a fair +valuation. They were very good vessels, and capable of prompt armoring +in at least as effective a style as that in which the _Alabama_ was +afterwards armored. The East India Company was prepared to make such +terms as the Confederate government could have met. + +British outfitters were perfectly willing to trust the Southern +statesmen. The ships could have been armed in a few weeks; there was +nothing to prevent their entrance into Southern ports, for the blockade +was not made effective until one year after the war broke out. The +_Otero_, renamed by the Confederates the _Florida_, had no difficulty in +taking on her men and guns in the Bahamas. + +Possessed of ten good steam vessels, commanded by such men as Maury, +Maffitt of the _Florida_, and Semmes of the _Alabama_, the Confederacy +could have quickly overcome its lack of mechanics and workshops by +importation from Europe. It was the command of the Mississippi, the +Cumberland and the Tennessee rivers which "broke the back of the +Confederacy"; and does any one imagine that the wooden ships of +Farragut could have entered the Mississippi, compelled the abandonment +of New Orleans, and secured the possession of not only the seacoast but +the inland river waters which commanded the Confederacy from the rear, +if there had been any good ships to resist him? + +The start which these ten ships would have given a Confederate navy +would have more than put the South even with the North on the sea. It +must be remembered that up to 1862, even as it was, the South could do +better in the courts and exchanges of Europe than the Union could. Why? +Because the South had the cotton, upon which the mills of Europe +depended. The continued chance to market cotton would have saved the +situation for the South. _Alabamas_ in any requisite number would have +issued from British shipyards. + +As it was, several powerful rams were under construction for the +Confederacy in 1861 and 1862 in the yards of the Lairds. But the +continued insistence of Minister Adams on the unlawfulness of this +proceeding, joined with the fact that the Confederates had no +recognizable navy to back up their purchases, at last compelled the +British government to take these rams over and add them to its own sea +power. + +President Jefferson Davis declined the offer of the East India ships for +the apparent reason that the military necessities of the Confederacy +pressed hard upon the financial resources of the new government. Every +member of his government was quite thoroughly convinced that the +National power could not successfully invade the South, provided a +strong army were quickly put into the field. The ready material for good +soldiers was much more abundant in the South than in the North; nearly +all Southern men were horsemen, hunters, marksmen, out-of-door men. On +the other hand, the first levies from the North were mostly city men, +unaccustomed to firearms, strangers to exposure, flabby of physique. +Manassas amply illustrated the great superiority as soldiers of the +first comers from the South over the first comers from the North. + +The Confederate leaders counted upon making permanent the advantage +which they were confident of gaining in the field at the outset. To +purchase out of hand ten steamships, from resources that were yet to be +created, and with the manhood of seven States demanding to be armed, +looked, indeed, like madness. And yet this was the very card which, if +played, would have saved the Confederacy's game. + +Conceive for a moment the Union navy debarred from entrance into the +James or any of the navigable waters of Virginia, to support military +operations in the direction of Richmond. Conceive Wilmington, N. C., +which was an easily defensible port, and which really remained open to +the blockade runners for almost two years after the beginning of the +war, rendered a fairly safe point of departure for European trade +throughout the war. Conceive the Mississippi, from Cairo southward to +its mouth, continuously under the power of the Confederacy, with a fleet +of river gunboats backed up by a Gulf squadron. Does any one imagine +that in that case the North could have made either any warlike or +commercial use of the Ohio, the Cumberland, the Tennessee, or even the +Mississippi from Cairo up to St. Louis? + +Freed from the unceasing coast menace and from the danger of being cut +in two along the rivers, the effectiveness of the land forces would have +been more than doubled. Leaving out of the account the possibility of +offensive operations against Washington and the cities of the North, +the defense of the seceded States could have been made so secure that +the people of the North would have called loudly for peace; the border +slave States would have cast in their lot with the Confederacy, and +England and France would have openly sided with the South; secession +would have triumphed definitely before the end of the year 1863. + +With the English East India Company, it was a case of "take our ships or +leave them." The South left them, and with them it left its chance for +independence and for putting two mediocre American republics in the +place where one great one, after that decisive moment, was bound to +stand forever. + + + + + * * * * * + + + + +Transcriber's note: + +Obvious punctuation errors were corrected. + + + +***END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE IFS OF HISTORY*** + + +******* This file should be named 34086.txt or 34086.zip ******* + + +This and all associated files of various formats will be found in: +http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/3/4/0/8/34086 + + + +Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions +will be renamed. + +Creating the works from public domain print editions means that no +one owns a United States copyright in these works, so the Foundation +(and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United States without +permission and without paying copyright royalties. Special rules, +set forth in the General Terms of Use part of this license, apply to +copying and distributing Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works to +protect the PROJECT GUTENBERG-tm concept and trademark. Project +Gutenberg is a registered trademark, and may not be used if you +charge for the eBooks, unless you receive specific permission. If you +do not charge anything for copies of this eBook, complying with the +rules is very easy. You may use this eBook for nearly any purpose +such as creation of derivative works, reports, performances and +research. They may be modified and printed and given away--you may do +practically ANYTHING with public domain eBooks. Redistribution is +subject to the trademark license, especially commercial +redistribution. + + + +*** START: FULL LICENSE *** + +THE FULL PROJECT GUTENBERG LICENSE +PLEASE READ THIS BEFORE YOU DISTRIBUTE OR USE THIS WORK + +To protect the Project Gutenberg-tm mission of promoting the free +distribution of electronic works, by using or distributing this work +(or any other work associated in any way with the phrase "Project +Gutenberg"), you agree to comply with all the terms of the Full Project +Gutenberg-tm License (available with this file or online at +http://www.gutenberg.org/license). + + +Section 1. General Terms of Use and Redistributing Project Gutenberg-tm +electronic works + +1.A. By reading or using any part of this Project Gutenberg-tm +electronic work, you indicate that you have read, understand, agree to +and accept all the terms of this license and intellectual property +(trademark/copyright) agreement. If you do not agree to abide by all +the terms of this agreement, you must cease using and return or destroy +all copies of Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works in your possession. +If you paid a fee for obtaining a copy of or access to a Project +Gutenberg-tm electronic work and you do not agree to be bound by the +terms of this agreement, you may obtain a refund from the person or +entity to whom you paid the fee as set forth in paragraph 1.E.8. + +1.B. "Project Gutenberg" is a registered trademark. It may only be +used on or associated in any way with an electronic work by people who +agree to be bound by the terms of this agreement. There are a few +things that you can do with most Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works +even without complying with the full terms of this agreement. See +paragraph 1.C below. There are a lot of things you can do with Project +Gutenberg-tm electronic works if you follow the terms of this agreement +and help preserve free future access to Project Gutenberg-tm electronic +works. See paragraph 1.E below. + +1.C. The Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation ("the Foundation" +or PGLAF), owns a compilation copyright in the collection of Project +Gutenberg-tm electronic works. Nearly all the individual works in the +collection are in the public domain in the United States. If an +individual work is in the public domain in the United States and you are +located in the United States, we do not claim a right to prevent you from +copying, distributing, performing, displaying or creating derivative +works based on the work as long as all references to Project Gutenberg +are removed. Of course, we hope that you will support the Project +Gutenberg-tm mission of promoting free access to electronic works by +freely sharing Project Gutenberg-tm works in compliance with the terms of +this agreement for keeping the Project Gutenberg-tm name associated with +the work. You can easily comply with the terms of this agreement by +keeping this work in the same format with its attached full Project +Gutenberg-tm License when you share it without charge with others. + +1.D. The copyright laws of the place where you are located also govern +what you can do with this work. Copyright laws in most countries are in +a constant state of change. If you are outside the United States, check +the laws of your country in addition to the terms of this agreement +before downloading, copying, displaying, performing, distributing or +creating derivative works based on this work or any other Project +Gutenberg-tm work. The Foundation makes no representations concerning +the copyright status of any work in any country outside the United +States. + +1.E. Unless you have removed all references to Project Gutenberg: + +1.E.1. The following sentence, with active links to, or other immediate +access to, the full Project Gutenberg-tm License must appear prominently +whenever any copy of a Project Gutenberg-tm work (any work on which the +phrase "Project Gutenberg" appears, or with which the phrase "Project +Gutenberg" is associated) is accessed, displayed, performed, viewed, +copied or distributed: + +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + +1.E.2. If an individual Project Gutenberg-tm electronic work is derived +from the public domain (does not contain a notice indicating that it is +posted with permission of the copyright holder), the work can be copied +and distributed to anyone in the United States without paying any fees +or charges. If you are redistributing or providing access to a work +with the phrase "Project Gutenberg" associated with or appearing on the +work, you must comply either with the requirements of paragraphs 1.E.1 +through 1.E.7 or obtain permission for the use of the work and the +Project Gutenberg-tm trademark as set forth in paragraphs 1.E.8 or +1.E.9. + +1.E.3. If an individual Project Gutenberg-tm electronic work is posted +with the permission of the copyright holder, your use and distribution +must comply with both paragraphs 1.E.1 through 1.E.7 and any additional +terms imposed by the copyright holder. Additional terms will be linked +to the Project Gutenberg-tm License for all works posted with the +permission of the copyright holder found at the beginning of this work. + +1.E.4. Do not unlink or detach or remove the full Project Gutenberg-tm +License terms from this work, or any files containing a part of this +work or any other work associated with Project Gutenberg-tm. + +1.E.5. Do not copy, display, perform, distribute or redistribute this +electronic work, or any part of this electronic work, without +prominently displaying the sentence set forth in paragraph 1.E.1 with +active links or immediate access to the full terms of the Project +Gutenberg-tm License. + +1.E.6. You may convert to and distribute this work in any binary, +compressed, marked up, nonproprietary or proprietary form, including any +word processing or hypertext form. However, if you provide access to or +distribute copies of a Project Gutenberg-tm work in a format other than +"Plain Vanilla ASCII" or other format used in the official version +posted on the official Project Gutenberg-tm web site (www.gutenberg.org), +you must, at no additional cost, fee or expense to the user, provide a +copy, a means of exporting a copy, or a means of obtaining a copy upon +request, of the work in its original "Plain Vanilla ASCII" or other +form. Any alternate format must include the full Project Gutenberg-tm +License as specified in paragraph 1.E.1. + +1.E.7. Do not charge a fee for access to, viewing, displaying, +performing, copying or distributing any Project Gutenberg-tm works +unless you comply with paragraph 1.E.8 or 1.E.9. + +1.E.8. You may charge a reasonable fee for copies of or providing +access to or distributing Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works provided +that + +- You pay a royalty fee of 20% of the gross profits you derive from + the use of Project Gutenberg-tm works calculated using the method + you already use to calculate your applicable taxes. The fee is + owed to the owner of the Project Gutenberg-tm trademark, but he + has agreed to donate royalties under this paragraph to the + Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation. Royalty payments + must be paid within 60 days following each date on which you + prepare (or are legally required to prepare) your periodic tax + returns. Royalty payments should be clearly marked as such and + sent to the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation at the + address specified in Section 4, "Information about donations to + the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation." + +- You provide a full refund of any money paid by a user who notifies + you in writing (or by e-mail) within 30 days of receipt that s/he + does not agree to the terms of the full Project Gutenberg-tm + License. You must require such a user to return or + destroy all copies of the works possessed in a physical medium + and discontinue all use of and all access to other copies of + Project Gutenberg-tm works. + +- You provide, in accordance with paragraph 1.F.3, a full refund of any + money paid for a work or a replacement copy, if a defect in the + electronic work is discovered and reported to you within 90 days + of receipt of the work. + +- You comply with all other terms of this agreement for free + distribution of Project Gutenberg-tm works. + +1.E.9. If you wish to charge a fee or distribute a Project Gutenberg-tm +electronic work or group of works on different terms than are set +forth in this agreement, you must obtain permission in writing from +both the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation and Michael +Hart, the owner of the Project Gutenberg-tm trademark. Contact the +Foundation as set forth in Section 3 below. + +1.F. + +1.F.1. Project Gutenberg volunteers and employees expend considerable +effort to identify, do copyright research on, transcribe and proofread +public domain works in creating the Project Gutenberg-tm +collection. Despite these efforts, Project Gutenberg-tm electronic +works, and the medium on which they may be stored, may contain +"Defects," such as, but not limited to, incomplete, inaccurate or +corrupt data, transcription errors, a copyright or other intellectual +property infringement, a defective or damaged disk or other medium, a +computer virus, or computer codes that damage or cannot be read by +your equipment. + +1.F.2. LIMITED WARRANTY, DISCLAIMER OF DAMAGES - Except for the "Right +of Replacement or Refund" described in paragraph 1.F.3, the Project +Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation, the owner of the Project +Gutenberg-tm trademark, and any other party distributing a Project +Gutenberg-tm electronic work under this agreement, disclaim all +liability to you for damages, costs and expenses, including legal +fees. YOU AGREE THAT YOU HAVE NO REMEDIES FOR NEGLIGENCE, STRICT +LIABILITY, BREACH OF WARRANTY OR BREACH OF CONTRACT EXCEPT THOSE +PROVIDED IN PARAGRAPH 1.F.3. YOU AGREE THAT THE FOUNDATION, THE +TRADEMARK OWNER, AND ANY DISTRIBUTOR UNDER THIS AGREEMENT WILL NOT BE +LIABLE TO YOU FOR ACTUAL, DIRECT, INDIRECT, CONSEQUENTIAL, PUNITIVE OR +INCIDENTAL DAMAGES EVEN IF YOU GIVE NOTICE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH +DAMAGE. + +1.F.3. LIMITED RIGHT OF REPLACEMENT OR REFUND - If you discover a +defect in this electronic work within 90 days of receiving it, you can +receive a refund of the money (if any) you paid for it by sending a +written explanation to the person you received the work from. If you +received the work on a physical medium, you must return the medium with +your written explanation. The person or entity that provided you with +the defective work may elect to provide a replacement copy in lieu of a +refund. If you received the work electronically, the person or entity +providing it to you may choose to give you a second opportunity to +receive the work electronically in lieu of a refund. If the second copy +is also defective, you may demand a refund in writing without further +opportunities to fix the problem. + +1.F.4. Except for the limited right of replacement or refund set forth +in paragraph 1.F.3, this work is provided to you 'AS-IS', WITH NO OTHER +WARRANTIES OF ANY KIND, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO +WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTIBILITY OR FITNESS FOR ANY PURPOSE. + +1.F.5. Some states do not allow disclaimers of certain implied +warranties or the exclusion or limitation of certain types of damages. +If any disclaimer or limitation set forth in this agreement violates the +law of the state applicable to this agreement, the agreement shall be +interpreted to make the maximum disclaimer or limitation permitted by +the applicable state law. The invalidity or unenforceability of any +provision of this agreement shall not void the remaining provisions. + +1.F.6. INDEMNITY - You agree to indemnify and hold the Foundation, the +trademark owner, any agent or employee of the Foundation, anyone +providing copies of Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works in accordance +with this agreement, and any volunteers associated with the production, +promotion and distribution of Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works, +harmless from all liability, costs and expenses, including legal fees, +that arise directly or indirectly from any of the following which you do +or cause to occur: (a) distribution of this or any Project Gutenberg-tm +work, (b) alteration, modification, or additions or deletions to any +Project Gutenberg-tm work, and (c) any Defect you cause. + + +Section 2. Information about the Mission of Project Gutenberg-tm + +Project Gutenberg-tm is synonymous with the free distribution of +electronic works in formats readable by the widest variety of computers +including obsolete, old, middle-aged and new computers. It exists +because of the efforts of hundreds of volunteers and donations from +people in all walks of life. + +Volunteers and financial support to provide volunteers with the +assistance they need are critical to reaching Project Gutenberg-tm's +goals and ensuring that the Project Gutenberg-tm collection will +remain freely available for generations to come. In 2001, the Project +Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation was created to provide a secure +and permanent future for Project Gutenberg-tm and future generations. +To learn more about the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation +and how your efforts and donations can help, see Sections 3 and 4 +and the Foundation web page at http://www.gutenberg.org/fundraising/pglaf. + + +Section 3. Information about the Project Gutenberg Literary Archive +Foundation + +The Project Gutenberg Literary Archive Foundation is a non profit +501(c)(3) educational corporation organized under the laws of the +state of Mississippi and granted tax exempt status by the Internal +Revenue Service. The Foundation's EIN or federal tax identification +number is 64-6221541. Contributions to the Project Gutenberg +Literary Archive Foundation are tax deductible to the full extent +permitted by U.S. federal laws and your state's laws. + +The Foundation's principal office is located at 4557 Melan Dr. S. +Fairbanks, AK, 99712., but its volunteers and employees are scattered +throughout numerous locations. Its business office is located at +809 North 1500 West, Salt Lake City, UT 84116, (801) 596-1887, email +business@pglaf.org. Email contact links and up to date contact +information can be found at the Foundation's web site and official +page at http://www.gutenberg.org/about/contact + +For additional contact information: + Dr. Gregory B. Newby + Chief Executive and Director + gbnewby@pglaf.org + +Section 4. Information about Donations to the Project Gutenberg +Literary Archive Foundation + +Project Gutenberg-tm depends upon and cannot survive without wide +spread public support and donations to carry out its mission of +increasing the number of public domain and licensed works that can be +freely distributed in machine readable form accessible by the widest +array of equipment including outdated equipment. Many small donations +($1 to $5,000) are particularly important to maintaining tax exempt +status with the IRS. + +The Foundation is committed to complying with the laws regulating +charities and charitable donations in all 50 states of the United +States. Compliance requirements are not uniform and it takes a +considerable effort, much paperwork and many fees to meet and keep up +with these requirements. We do not solicit donations in locations +where we have not received written confirmation of compliance. To +SEND DONATIONS or determine the status of compliance for any +particular state visit http://www.gutenberg.org/fundraising/donate + +While we cannot and do not solicit contributions from states where we +have not met the solicitation requirements, we know of no prohibition +against accepting unsolicited donations from donors in such states who +approach us with offers to donate. + +International donations are gratefully accepted, but we cannot make +any statements concerning tax treatment of donations received from +outside the United States. U.S. laws alone swamp our small staff. + +Please check the Project Gutenberg Web pages for current donation +methods and addresses. Donations are accepted in a number of other +ways including checks, online payments and credit card donations. +To donate, please visit: +http://www.gutenberg.org/fundraising/donate + + +Section 5. General Information About Project Gutenberg-tm electronic +works. + +Professor Michael S. Hart is the originator of the Project Gutenberg-tm +concept of a library of electronic works that could be freely shared +with anyone. For thirty years, he produced and distributed Project +Gutenberg-tm eBooks with only a loose network of volunteer support. + +Project Gutenberg-tm eBooks are often created from several printed +editions, all of which are confirmed as Public Domain in the U.S. +unless a copyright notice is included. Thus, we do not necessarily +keep eBooks in compliance with any particular paper edition. + +Most people start at our Web site which has the main PG search facility: + + http://www.gutenberg.org + +This Web site includes information about Project Gutenberg-tm, +including how to make donations to the Project Gutenberg Literary +Archive Foundation, how to help produce our new eBooks, and how to +subscribe to our email newsletter to hear about new eBooks. + diff --git a/34086.zip b/34086.zip Binary files differnew file mode 100644 index 0000000..599cf26 --- /dev/null +++ b/34086.zip diff --git a/LICENSE.txt b/LICENSE.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6312041 --- /dev/null +++ b/LICENSE.txt @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +This eBook, including all associated images, markup, improvements, +metadata, and any other content or labor, has been confirmed to be +in the PUBLIC DOMAIN IN THE UNITED STATES. + +Procedures for determining public domain status are described in +the "Copyright How-To" at https://www.gutenberg.org. + +No investigation has been made concerning possible copyrights in +jurisdictions other than the United States. Anyone seeking to utilize +this eBook outside of the United States should confirm copyright +status under the laws that apply to them. diff --git a/README.md b/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..fb7f9d3 --- /dev/null +++ b/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ +Project Gutenberg (https://www.gutenberg.org) public repository for +eBook #34086 (https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/34086) |