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diff --git a/29499.txt b/29499.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b562dc9 --- /dev/null +++ b/29499.txt @@ -0,0 +1,1213 @@ +Project Gutenberg's The Paper Moneys of Europe, by Francis W. Hirst + +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + + +Title: The Paper Moneys of Europe + Their Moral and Economic Significance + +Author: Francis W. Hirst + +Release Date: July 23, 2009 [EBook #29499] + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: ASCII + +*** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE PAPER MONEYS OF EUROPE *** + + + + +Produced by The Online Distributed Proofreading Team at +https://www.pgdp.net (This file was produced from images +generously made available by The Internet Archive/American +Libraries.) + + + + + + +THE PAPER MONEYS OF EUROPE + +THEIR MORAL AND ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE + + + +By + +FRANCIS W. HIRST + + + +BOSTON AND NEW YORK +HOUGHTON MIFFLIN COMPANY +The Riverside Press Cambridge +1922 + +COPYRIGHT, 1922, BY THE REGENTS OF THE +UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA + +ALL RIGHTS RESERVED + +The Riverside Press +CAMBRIDGE . MASSACHUSETTS +PRINTED IN THE U.S.A. + + + + +BARBARA WEINSTOCK +LECTURES ON THE MORALS OF TRADE + +This series will contain essays by representative scholars and men of +affairs dealing with the various phases of the moral law in its bearing +on business life under the new economic order, first delivered at the +University of California on the Weinstock foundation. + + + + +THE PAPER MONEYS OF EUROPE + + + + +THEIR MORAL AND ECONOMIC SIGNIFICANCE + + +No more severe reflection could be passed upon the moral and political +capacity of the human species than this: Five thousand years after the +invention of _writing_, three thousand after the invention of _money_, +and (nearly) five hundred since the invention of _printing_, +governments all over the world are employing the third invention for +the purpose of debasing the second; thereby robbing millions of +innocent individuals of their property on a scale so extensive that +previous public confiscations of private property through the +adulteration of money--in ancient Rome, in Ireland under James the +Second, in Prussia during the Seven Years' War, in the American +colonies and the United States, in Portugal, in Greece, in various +republics of Central and South America, even the assignats of the +French Revolution--seem pigmy frauds in comparison with the present +vast inundation of counterfeit paper money. + +In these times, when so much attention is given to what I may call the +prehistoric history of mankind, it would ill become me, a mere +adventurer in anthropology, to discuss the origin of money or to +attempt an explanation of the curious fact that the art of coining +money was invented and perfected a thousand years before the art of +printing. The coins struck by the best cities of ancient Greece are a +model and a reproach to our modern mints; and being for the most part +of good silver, they fulfilled the two main functions of currency--as a +measure of value and a medium of exchange. + +Silver was well adapted for the purposes of currency by its ductility, +durability, divisibility, portability, and value. Its value depended on +three things. In the first place, it was scarce; in the second, it was +much in demand for the arts and manufactures; and in the third place, +its intrinsic value was increased and stabilized by the needs and +demands of the mints. + +Gold had similar qualifications, but it was too scarce and too precious +until the nineteenth century, in the course of which (for reasons which +I need not enter upon here), most of the great commercial nations +adopted a gold standard. Copper possessed in a less degree the +qualifications of gold and silver, but it was the first metal to be +coined into money in ancient Rome. The Roman _as_ or _pondo_ weighed a +Roman pound of _good_ copper, therefore possessed the two principal +attributes of good money, a definite weight and a definite fineness. It +was divided like our troy pound into twelve ounces of good copper. + +The English Troyes or Troy pound was first used in the English mint in +the time of Henry the Eighth. Edward the First's pound sterling was a +Tower pound of silver of a definite fineness. Charlemagne's livre was a +Troyes[1] pound of silver of definite fineness. The old English Scotch +pence or pennies contained originally a real pennyweight of silver, one +twentieth of an ounce and one two hundred and fortieth of a pound. The +famous pre-war English sovereign, now demonetized and misrepresented by +the depreciated paper pound, was itself also a weight; but the twenty +shillings and two hundred and forty pence which exchanged for it were +token coins depending for their value upon the gold sovereign. + + [1] "The Fair of Troyes in Champaign was at that time frequented + by all the nations of Europe, and the weights and measures of so + famous a market were generally known and esteemed." (Adam Smith, + _Wealth of Nations_, Book I, chap, IV.) + + From the time of Charlemagne among the French, and from that of + William the Conqueror among the English [wrote Adam Smith in 1776], + the proportion between the pound, the shilling and the penny, seems + to have been uniformly the same as at present, though the value of + each has been very different; for in every country of the world, I + believe, the avarice and injustice of princes and sovereign states, + abusing the confidence of their subjects, have by degrees + diminished the real quantity of metal which had been originally + contained in their coins. The Roman as, in the latter ages of the + republic, was reduced to the twenty-fourth part of its original + value, and, instead of weighing a pound, came to weigh only half an + ounce. The English pound and penny contain at present about a third + only; the Scots pound and penny about a thirty-sixth; and the + French pound and penny about a sixty-sixth part of their original + value. By means of those operations, the princes and sovereign + states which performed them were enabled, in appearance, to pay + their debts and fulfil their engagements with a smaller quantity of + silver than would otherwise have been requisite. It was indeed in + appearance only; for their creditors were really defrauded of a + part of what was due to them. All other debtors in the state were + allowed the same privilege, and might pay with the same nominal sum + of the new and debased coin whatever they had borrowed in the old. + Such operations, therefore, have always proved favourable to the + debtor, and ruinous to the creditor, and have sometimes produced a + greater and more universal revolution in the fortunes of private + persons, than could have been occasioned by a very great public + calamity.[2] + + [2] _Wealth of Nations_, Book I, chap. IV. + +John Stuart Mill follows his master in exposing and denouncing what he +calls this "least covert of all forms of knavery which consists in +calling a shilling a pound." But the opinions of Mill, the saint of +rationalism, deserve and demand citation as they bring us directly to +our subject. He writes: + + When gold and silver had become virtually a medium of exchange, by + becoming the things for which people generally sold, and with which + they generally bought, whatever they had to sell or buy; the + contrivance of coining obviously suggested itself. By this process + the metal was divided into convenient portions, of any degree of + smallness, and bearing a recognised proportion to one another; and + the trouble was saved of weighing and assaying at every change of + possessors, an inconvenience which on the occasion of small + purchases would soon have become insupportable. + + Governments found it their interest to take the operation into + their own hands, and to interdict all coining by private persons; + indeed, their guarantee was often the only one which would have + been relied on, a reliance however which very often it ill + deserved; profligate governments having until a very modern period + seldom scrupled, for the sake of robbing their creditors, to confer + on all other debtors a licence to rob theirs, by the shallow and + impudent artifice of lowering the standard; that least covert of + all modes of knavery, which consists in calling a shilling a pound, + that a debt of a hundred pounds may be cancelled by the payment of + a hundred shillings. It would have been as simple a plan, and would + have answered just as well, to have enacted that "a hundred" should + always be interpreted to mean five, which would have effected the + same reduction in all pecuniary contracts, and would not have been + at all more shameless. Such strokes of policy have not wholly + ceased to be recommended, but they have ceased to be practised, + except occasionally through the medium of paper money, in which + case the character of the transaction, from the greater obscurity + of the subject is a little less barefaced.[3] + + [3] Mill, _Political Economy_, Book III, chap. VII. + +A few illustrations from the past may help us to a critical +contemplation of the present monetary conditions on the continent of +Europe, which constitute fraud and robbery on the most wholesale scale +ever practised by governments (with the style and title of +democracies!) upon the miserable victims, called citizens, and supposed +to be endowed with the blessings of self-determination. + +Those who believe that war, if not a divine institution, is at least an +inevitable feature of human society may plead in extenuation of this +species of fraud that it is usually the last desperate resource of a +government which has pledged all its taxes and credit for war or +armaments. + +I remember reading in the Roman historian Sallust of a financial crisis +which was ended by debts contracted in silver being paid off in +copper--_argentum aere solutum est_. + +A few years before Adam Smith wrote his chapter on money, Frederick the +Great, during the Seven Years' War, resorted to the Jew, Ephraim, who +coined tin silver: + + Outside noble, inside slim, + Outside Frederick, inside Ephraim. + +But Frederick, wiser and more honest than our European belligerents, +made it his first care after the peace to restore an honest silver +coinage. + +A lively example from English, or rather Irish, history is supplied by +Macaulay and belongs to the year 1689. It is one of the incidents in +James the Second's brief and luckless government of Ireland: + + It is remarkable that while the King [James II] was losing the + confidence and good will of the Irish Commons by faintly defending + against them, in one quarter, the institution of property, he was + himself, in another quarter, attacking that institution with a + violence, if possible more reckless than theirs. + + He soon found that no money came into his Exchequer. The cause was + sufficiently obvious. Trade was at an end. Floating capital had + been withdrawn in great masses from the island. Of the fixed + capital much had been destroyed, and the rest was lying idle. + Thousands of those Protestants who were the most industrious and + intelligent part of the population had emigrated to England. + Thousands had taken refuge in the places which still held out for + William and Mary. Of the Roman Catholic peasantry, who were in the + vigor of life, the majority had enlisted in the army or had joined + gangs of plunderers. The poverty of the treasury was the necessary + effect of the poverty of the country: public prosperity could be + restored only by the restoration of private prosperity; and private + prosperity could be restored only by years of peace and security. + James was absurd enough to imagine that there was a more speedy and + efficacious remedy. He could, he conceived, at once extricate + himself from his financial difficulties by the simple process of + calling a farthing a shilling. + + The right of coining was undoubtedly a flower of the prerogative; + and, in his view, the right of coining included the right of + debasing the coin. Pots, pans, knockers of doors, pieces of + ordnance which had long been past use, were carried to the mint. In + a short time lumps of base metal, nominally worth near a million + sterling, intrinsically worth about a sixtieth part of that sum, + were in circulation. A royal edict declared these pieces to be + legal tender in all cases whatsoever. A mortgage for a thousand + pounds was cleared off by a bag of counters made out of old + kettles. The creditors who complained to the Court of Chancery were + told by Fitton to take their money and be gone. + + But of all classes, the tradesmen of Dublin, who were generally + Protestants, were the greatest losers. At first, of course, they + raised their demands; but the magistrates of the city took on + themselves to meet this heretical inclination by putting forth a + tariff regulating prices. Any man who belonged to the caste now + dominant might walk into a shop, lay on the counter a bit of brass + worth threepence, and carry off goods to the value of half a + guinea. Legal remedies were out of the question. Indeed the + sufferers thought themselves happy if, by the sacrifice of their + stock in trade, they could redeem their limbs and their lives. + There was not a baker's shop in the city round which twenty or + thirty soldiers were not constantly prowling. Some persons who + refused the base money were arrested by troopers and carried before + the Provost Marshal, who cursed them, swore at them, locked them up + in dark cells, and, by threatening to hang them at their own doors, + soon overcame their resistance. Of all the plagues of that time + none made a deeper or a more lasting impression on the minds of the + Protestants of Dublin than the plague of brass money. To the + recollection of the confusion and misery which had been produced by + James' coin must be in part ascribed the strenuous opposition + which, thirty-five years later, large classes firmly attached to + the House of Hanover, offered to the government of George the First + in the affair of Woods' Patent.[4] + + [4] Macaulay, _History of England_, I, chap. XII. "The Affair of + Woods' Patent" is celebrated in Swift's Drapier letters. + +But paper money offers far more extensive facilities to knavery than a +metallic currency. In his _Essays on the Monetary History of the United +States_,[5] Mr. Charles J. Bullock has described in sufficient detail +the "carnival of fraud and corruption" which attended the paper money +coined or rather printed by most of the American colonies in the +century preceding the American Revolution. Thus, about the middle of +the eighteenth century, the paper money of Massachusetts fell to an +eighth of its original value. People were driven to barter, and one +writer observed that "the morals of the people depreciate with the +currency." Parties were divided into debtors and creditors, and a New +England writer in 1749 noted: "The Debtor side has had the ascendant +ever since anno 1741 to the almost utter ruin of the country."[6] To +this writer belongs the credit of discerning, at a time when even +Benjamin Franklin was in error, that "the repeated large emissions of +Paper Money" were responsible for its depreciation. + + [5] Macmillan, 1900. + + [6] Douglass. + +"Not worth a Continental" is an expression which brings us to the next +chapter in American experience of inconvertible paper currencies. The +so-called Continental money was the means by which the Continental +Congress and the individual colonies--too timid to tax--endeavored to +finance the Revolutionary War. By 1781, a paper dollar was worth less +than two cents in specie, and soon afterward it became practically +worthless.[7] Robbery was legalized; rogues flourished; and their +frauds were encouraged and protected by a government whose policy +enabled debtors to pay their debts in valueless money. We hear of +creditors running away from their debtors and being paid off "without +mercy." Stories were told of creditors in Rhode Island leaping out of +back windows to escape the attentions of their debtors.[8] In short, +the law became an engine of oppression and destroyed the fortunes of +thousands who had put their confidence in it. In the words of Breck, a +friendly critic, "... the old debts were paid when the paper money was +more than seventy to one ... widows, orphans and others were paid for +money lent in specie with depreciated paper." + + [7] Bullock, _Monetary History of the United States_, chap. V. + + [8] _Ibid._, chap. V. In 1780 Congress actually adopted a plan to + redeem its paper issues at one fortieth of their pretended or + nominal value. + +The astonishing thing is that all this knavery was devised, or winked +at, not only by low class politicians but by statesmen of renown. The +maxim _salus populi suprema lex_ was relied upon not for the first +or last time as a sufficient excuse for a crime far more pernicious +than that of a private forger. But we have not yet realized, in our +minds or in our penal codes, that public vices ought to be punished at +least as vigorously as private crimes. + +That, even as a desperate last resort for financing war, a flood of paper +money defeats its own object was conclusively proved a few years later +during the French Revolution. The French assignats "have taken their +place in history as the classical example of paper money made worthless +by over-issue. After their final collapse in 1796, French finance +reverted perforce to a metallic basis." So Mr. Hawtrey, a British +Treasury official, who has given us recently a lucid and sufficiently +detailed account of this extraordinary incident--extraordinary but no +longer singular, for the same course with the same results has been +pursued during and since the war of 1914-1918 by Russia and Poland, and +in a greater or less degree by most of the European belligerents. + +The issue of French assignats began in 1789 because the assembly would +not vote adequate taxation, and Necker, the minister of finance, was +unable to borrow enough to cover the deficit. In the two years from +1789 to 1791, the public revenue was 470 millions, and the public +expenditures, 1719 millions, of livres. The deficit was covered by +assignats, or paper livres, bearing interest, in denominations varying +from 1000 to 5 livres. Thus the assignats may be regarded as a floating +debt currency. In November, 1791, the assignats were worth 52 per cent +of their face value. In June, 1792, after the declaration of war on +Austria, they rose to 57. After the victory of Valmy, in September, +they rose to 72 and remained there till December. In January, 1793, the +king was guillotined, and war was declared on England. By August, after +violent fluctuations, the assignat had fallen to 15 per cent of its +face value. Thereafter the laws enforcing the acceptance of assignats +were strengthened. + + It became an offence to sell coin, or to differentiate between coin + and assignats in any transaction, or to refuse payment in + assignats, or to negotiate assignats at a discount. By a decree of + the 5th of September the death penalty itself was imposed. Here was + a forced currency indeed.[9] + + [9] R. G. Hawtrey, _Currency and Credit_. Longmans Green & Co., + London, 1919. + +For a few months an artificial improvement was effected in the value of +the assignat by these ferocious measures; but in 1795, after the +Terror, the system and the paper money collapsed. The gold and silver +money, which had been hoarded, returned to circulation. In June, 1795, +the quotation of the assignat oscillated violently. On one day a louis +of 24 livres would buy 450 paper livres, on another, 1000.[10] Paper +notes which fluctuated so violently were useless as money. They could +not serve either as a medium of exchange or as a measure of value. +Country people expressed their contempt for the assignats by calling +them _l'argent de Paris_. + +A new currency of _mandats_ was tried, into which assignats were made +convertible. It was a complete failure. The _assignats_ were wound up +in 1796, and in February, 1797, there was "a general demonetisation of +paper money."[11] The holders got practically nothing. France returned +to hard cash, as Mexico has done recently. In 1918, when Mr. Hawtrey +wrote, he was able to describe the decline and full of the assignats as +an 'almost unique' instance of "the currency of a great nation fading +away into nothing." The Russian paper rouble has performed the same +feat since 1918. So has the Polish mark. And now (December, 1921) the +German paper mark is also fading into nothingness.[12] In Austria and +in most of the new states of Europe, the inconvertible paper legal +tender currency has lost almost the whole of its value, in comparison +with the pre-war coin which it pretends to represent. + + [10] Hawtrey, _op. cit._, chap. XV. + + [11] A _turn_ which even a Polish Chancellor of the Exchequer + might envy. + + [12] In the second week of November the mark fell to 1300 to the + paper pound, recovering a day or two later (Wednesday, November + 9) to 980. + +The real difference between the present monetary conditions and the +American _continentals_, or the French assignats, is a difference not +of kind, but of degree and extent. The causes and the consequences, the +motives of those who work the mint, the ruin and demoralization of the +victims, the effects upon public and private debts and credit are the +same. But a whole continent populated by four hundred millions of +people is concerned. The commercial and moral fabric of European +civilization is tottering. Three years have passed since the war ended; +but the currencies and exchanges of Europe are in a much worse +condition than when peace was being negotiated. + +At the end of June, 1921, I walked from my office in the Strand down to +Messrs. Hands & Co., who deal in foreign money at Charing Cross. On the +way I passed the shop of a tailor, who had placarded on his shop window +the announcement that he would give a hundred thousand roubles to every +customer who bought a suit of clothes from him. He added that at the +pre-war rate of exchange the one hundred thousand roubles would be +worth ten thousand pounds. He did not add that they were at that time +worth only two shillings.[13] On arriving at my destination, I asked to +see specimens of the most debased currencies and eventually laid out +ten shillings,[14] or, to be exact, 9_s_/10_d_. Here is the bill: + + Ten German marks cost me one shilling + A hundred Austrian crowns cost me one and sixpence + A hundred Polish marks cost me sixpence + Twenty-five Russian (_Czar_)[15] + roubles (1909) cost me sixpence + Two Italian lire cost me eightpence + Two Greek drachmas cost me eightpence + Two Roumanian lei cost me sixpence + Five Yugoslav dinars[16] cost me one shilling + Ten Czechoslovakian crowns cost me one shilling + Five Bulgarian levas cost me sixpence + Five Finnish marks cost me one shilling + Five Esthonian marks cost me one shilling + Five Latvian roubles cost me sixpence + + [13] A month or two later they were not worth a shilling. The + Russian Soviet Government was offering two hundred thousand + roubles for one pre-war silver rouble! + + [14] Two dollars. + + [15] Twenty-five Soviet roubles would have been dear at a + farthing. + + [16] On this note is stamped 20 _Kruna_ to indicate that five + dinars exchanged for twenty Austrian crowns. + +To show that my friend, the exchange dealer, made a decent profit out +of this retail transaction, I quote some of his selling rates for the +day on which he based his charges: + + _Rates of + Exchange_ _June 29, 1921_ + Austrian paper crowns 2400-2600 for L1 + Finnish marks 220-240 for L1 + German marks 265-275 for L1 + Polish marks 6000 (selling rate) for L1 + Greek drachmas 62-65 for L1 + Italian lire 76-77 for L1 + Roumanian lei 230-250 for L1 + +The last I heard from Vienna was that they had been varying from ten +thousand to fifteen thousand to the paper pound! + +The difference in the rates depended, of course, upon whether the +customer was buying or selling the foreign money. If he was buying +Austrian notes, he would get twenty-four hundred paper crowns for a +pound. If he was selling them, he would receive a pound in exchange for +twenty-six hundred paper crowns. + +All these paper notes are called after, and profess to represent, +silver coins, which were themselves before the war, tokens, and passed +current at more than their intrinsic value because of their relation to +gold. + +Thus the pre-war parity of marks was about twenty to the gold pound; of +Austrian crowns, about twenty-four; of francs, lire, etc., about +twenty-five. On the day of my purchase, therefore, the exchange value +of the German mark was less than one thirteenth, of the Austrian crown +less than one one hundredth, and of the Polish mark, one two hundredth, +of its pre-war status. But this underestimates the depreciation; for +the British pound is no longer a gold sovereign, and even gold has been +depreciated.[17] The paper pound in June, 1921, was, I think, about the +equivalent of twelve pre-war shillings in purchasing power. The gold +dollar, which would only buy a little more than four shillings before +the war, would buy five at the beginning of December, 1921. + + [17] To-day, November 30, 1921, the paper pound is worth about + four fifths of a gold pound. The purchasing power of gold--say, + the gold dollar--is perhaps about two thirds of what it was + before the war. + +Although an inconvertible paper currency has no intrinsic value, it can +(in accordance with the quantity theory of money) be maintained at a +fairly stable ratio to gold or commodities by an honest government if +the total issue is fixed, or kept between reasonable maximum and +minimum limits. The rise of prices since the war, in each country where +reliable statistics are available, has been in proportion to the +expansion of the paper currency, allowance being made for the scarcity +of commodities. Of course a decline in purchasing power _follows_ +an expansion of circulation. The stability of the British paper pound +since a limit was imposed illustrates the correctness of the quantity +theory of money. Its increase in purchasing power (like that of the +gold dollar) during the first half of 1921 is, of course, due to the +fact that the supply of utilities had overtaken the demand. + +At first sight it seems difficult to understand how any government, +however bad, can _deliberately_ issue flood upon flood of inconvertible +paper money, seeing that its printing operations are ruinous to both +public and private credit. To obtain the same amount of revenue, each +new issue, each new dose, has to be much larger than the preceding. In +the course of twelve months, for example, the exchange value of the +Polish mark was divided by ten, that is, at the end of the period, ten +times as much paper money had to be printed as at the beginning, to get +the same revenue. Yet the Polish Government continued upon its course +with the approval and support of the Polish Diet. + +The following quotation is from the Warsaw correspondent of the +_London Economist_, who wrote on July 28, 1921: + + The effects of the last collapse of the exchanges are beginning to + make themselves felt, and the Diet is already preparing fresh + ground for new currency inflation. By its last vote the limit on + the note circulation has been increased to 118 milliards, and on + the advances of the Polish National Bank to the Government to 150 + milliards. + + The depreciation of the Polish mark in June was followed by a rise + of prices, and this led immediately to a strike movement in almost + all industries. In the Lodz district 40,000 workmen have gone on + strike, demanding a wage increase of 120 per cent! The + manufacturers declare that they cannot raise wages by more than 20 + per cent; that even under present conditions the Polish textile + industry is in a most difficult position on the foreign markets, + especially in Roumania, the Baltic States, etc. Posnania was + menaced by an agrarian strike, but a settlement has been reached. + The strike of the municipal workers in Warsaw was short-lived. + Everywhere, however, wages have been increased by more than 50 per + cent. This naturally will entail a new wave of rising prices, the + Government will be obliged to double the salaries of its officials, + and the printing press will work again under a higher pressure. + This is the vicious circle round which the country has been + travelling for three years. + +_Ex uno disce omnes._ The monetary policy of the Polish Government is +merely a flagrant example of the recent monetary history of all the +states of Europe northeast, southeast, east, of the Rhine and of the +Alps. There is only one real remedy, the reestablishment of complete +peace, disarmament, the abolition of conscription, the drastic +reduction of bloated bureaucracies, and a wholesale lowering of +tariffs, which will allow the miserable and half-starved populations to +renew the arts of peace and the exchange of their agricultural products +and manufactures. + + + + +APPENDIX + +THE BRUSSELS CONFERENCE[18] + + +If all countries were included, a general and proportionate reduction +of the military and naval establishments to one half of their present +cost would set free a fund of probably at least $3,000,000,000 to +$4,000,000,000 annually for the purchase of food and useful +commodities, for the stabilization and partial restoration of debased +paper currencies, for the payment of debt, the removal of public +deficits, the revival of credit, and the reduction of taxes. Thus the +road to recovery lies plain before us. Will it be taken by the +statesmen to whose hands the peoples have intrusted their lives and +fortunes? + + [18] Taken by permission from an article by the author in the + _Saturday Evening Post_ of November 12, 1921. + + +DEFICITS THE RULE + +In order to show that this view is in conformity with the conclusions +of experts, and even of officials delegated for the purpose of +examining world finance by the governments themselves, I turn to the +conclusions unanimously arrived at by the Brussels conference a year +ago, after eighty-six financial experts from thirty-nine countries had +presented the accounts and balance sheets of their respective +governments. In a general review of the situation they point out that +"the total external debt of the European belligerents, converted into +dollars at par, amounts to about 155 milliard dollars, compared with +about 17 milliard dollars in 1913." They say that the government +expenditures of the European belligerents amount to between 20 and 40 +per cent of the total incomes of the peoples. They say emphatically +that the restoration of real peace, with disarmament, is "the first +condition for the world's recovery." + +Four commissions were appointed. The first dealt with public finance, +and its resolutions were adopted unanimously by the conference. The +following extract from its resolutions deserves attention: + + Thirty-nine nations have in turn placed before the International + Financial Conference a statement of their financial position. The + examination of these statements brings out the extreme gravity of + the general situation of public finance throughout the world, and + particularly in Europe. Their import may be summed up in the + statement that three out of every four of the countries represented + at this conference and eleven out of twelve of the European + countries anticipate a budget deficit in the present year. Public + opinion is largely responsible for this situation. The close + connection between these budget deficits and the cost of living, + which is causing such suffering and unrest throughout the world, is + far from being grasped. Nearly every government is being pressed to + incur fresh expenditure; largely on palliatives which aggravate the + very evils against which they are directed. The first step is to + bring public opinion in every country to realize the essential + facts of the situation and particularly the need for reestablishing + public finances on a sound basis as a preliminary to the execution + of those social reforms which the world demands. + + Public attention should be especially drawn to the fact that the + reduction of prices and the restoration of prosperity is dependent + on the increase of production, and that the continual excess of + government expenditure over revenue represented by budget deficits + is one of the most serious obstacles to such increase of + production, as it must sooner or later involve the following + consequences: + + (_a_) A further inflation of credit and currency. + + (_b_) A further depreciation in the purchasing power of the + domestic currency, and a still greater instability of the foreign + exchanges. + + (_c_) A further rise in prices and in the cost of living. + + The country which accepts the policy of budget deficits is treading + the slippery path which leads to general ruin; to escape from that + path no sacrifice is too great. It is therefore imperative that + every government should, as the first social and financial reform, + on which all others depend: + + (_a_) Restrict its ordinary recurrent expenditure, including the + service of the debt, to such an amount as can be covered by its + ordinary revenue. + + (_b_) Rigidly reduce all expenditure on armaments in so far as such + reduction is compatible with the preservation of national security. + + (_c_) Abandon all unproductive extraordinary expenditure. + + (_d_) Restrict even productive extraordinary expenditure to the + lowest possible amount. + + The Supreme Council of the Allied Powers in its pronouncement on + the eighth of March declared that "armies should everywhere be + reduced to a peace footing; that armaments should be limited to the + lowest possible figure compatible with national security and that + the League of Nations should be invited to consider, as soon as + possible, proposals to this end." + + The statements presented to the conference show that, on an + average, some 20 per cent of the national expenditure is still + being devoted to the maintenance of armaments and the preparations + for war. The conference desires to affirm with the utmost emphasis + that the world cannot afford this expenditure. Only by a frank + policy of mutual cooperation can the nations hope to regain their + old prosperity, and in order to secure that result, the whole + resources of each country must be devoted to strictly productive + purposes. + + The conference accordingly recommends most earnestly to the Council + of the League of Nations the desirability of conferring at once + with the several governments concerned, with a view to securing a + general and agreed reduction of the crushing burdens which on their + existing scale armaments still impose on the impoverished peoples + of the world, sapping their resource and imperiling their recovery + from the ravages of war. The conference hopes that the Assembly of + the League, which is about to meet, will take energetic action to + this end. + +The above recommendations were ignored by the League of Nations and by +practically all the governments concerned. Consequently the debts and +deficits of most European countries are larger at the present time than +they were a year ago, and most of the paper currencies have +depreciated--some very heavily--during the last twelve months. + + +THE DANGERS OF INFLATION + +I turn next to the resolutions proposed by the second commission which +had to examine problems of currency and foreign exchange. + +From its resolutions, which also were adopted unanimously by the +conference, I extract the following: + + The currencies of all belligerent and of many other countries, + though in greatly varying degrees, have since the beginning of the + war been expanded artificially, regardless of the usual restraints + upon such expansion--to which we refer later--and without any + corresponding increase in the real wealth upon which their + purchasing power was based; indeed in most cases in spite of a + serious reduction in such wealth. + + It should be clearly understood that this artificial and + unrestrained expansion, or inflation, as it is called, of the + currency or of the titles to immediate purchasing power does not + and cannot add to the total real purchasing power in existence, so + that its effect must be to reduce the purchasing power of each unit + of the currency. It is in fact a form of debasing the currency. + + The effect of it has been to intensify, in terms of the inflated + currencies, the general rise in prices, so that a greater amount of + such currency is needed to procure the accustomed supply of goods + and services. Where this additional currency was procured by + further inflation--that is, by printing more paper money or + creating fresh credit--there arose what has been called a vicious + spiral of constantly rising prices and wages and constantly + increasing inflation, with the resulting disorganization of all + business, dislocation of the exchanges, a progressive increase in + the cost of living, and consequent labor unrest. + + It is of the utmost importance that the growth of inflation should + be stopped; and this, although no doubt very difficult to do + immediately in some countries, could quickly be accomplished by + abstaining from increasing the currency--in its broadest sense, as + defined above--and by increasing the real wealth upon which such + currency is based. + + The cessation of increase in the currency should not be achieved + merely by restricting the issue of legal tender. Such a step, if + unaccompanied by other measures, would be apt to aggravate the + situation by causing a monetary crisis. It is necessary to attack + the causes which lead to the necessity for the additional currency. + + The chief cause in most countries is that the governments, finding + themselves unable to meet their expenditures out of revenue, have + been tempted to resort to the artificial creation of fresh + purchasing power, either by the direct issue of additional + legal-tender money or more frequently by obtaining--especially from + the banks of issue, which in some cases are unable and in others + unwilling to refuse them--credits which must themselves be + satisfied in legal-tender money. We say, therefore, that + governments must limit their expenditure to their revenue. + +Here again we have excellent doctrines and good practical advice from +these financial experts to the governments which appointed them. But +the doctrines have remained unapplied, and the advice has been honored +in the breach instead of in the observance. + + +WISE COUNSEL IGNORED + +I pass next to the resolutions proposed by the commission on +international trade and adopted unanimously by the conference, from +which the first two paragraphs will be quoted: + + The International Financial Conference affirms that the first + condition for the resumption of international trade is the + restoration of real peace, the conclusion of the wars which are + still being waged and the assured maintenance of peace for the + future. The continuance of the atmosphere of war and of + preparations for war is fatal to the development of that mutual + trust which is essential to the resumption of normal trading + relations. The security of internal conditions is scarcely less + important, as foreign trade cannot prosper in a country whose + internal conditions do not inspire confidence. The conference + trusts that the League of Nations will lose no opportunity to + secure the full restoration and continued maintenance of peace. + + The International Financial Conference affirms that the improvement + of the financial position largely depends on the general + restoration as soon as possible of good will between the various + nations; and in particular it indorses the declaration of the + Supreme Council of the eighth March last "that the States which + have been created or enlarged as a result of the war should at once + reestablish full and friendly cooperation and arrange for the + unrestricted interchange of commodities in order that the essential + unity of European economic life may not be impaired by the erection + of artificial economic barriers." + +Here again there is a full recognition of the fact that peace is +necessary to the renewal of prosperity, and that the atmosphere of war +preparations is fatal to the growth of trade. But neither the League of +Nations nor the Supreme Council, so far as I am aware, has made any +effective response to these appeals. + +Fourthly and lastly, I come to the commission on international credits. +This commission passed a number of resolutions, all of which were +adopted unanimously by the conference; but it will suffice to cite the +first two: + + The conference recognizes in the first place that the difficulties + which at present lie in the way of international credit operations + arise almost exclusively out of the disturbance caused by the war, + and that the normal working of financial markets cannot be + completely reestablished unless peaceful relations are restored + between all peoples and the outstanding financial questions + resulting from the war are made the subject of a definite + settlement which is put into execution. + + The conference is, moreover, of opinion that the revival of credit + requires as primary conditions the restoration of order in public + finance, the cessation of inflation, the purging of currencies, and + the freedom of commercial transactions. The resolutions of the + commission on international credits are therefore based on the + resolutions of the other commissions. + +My argument then is fully endorsed by the experts at Brussels. All the +facts and figures set forth in the voluminous records of that +remarkable conference indicate the urgency of peace and disarmament. A +year has passed. + +The Brussels recommendations have been ignored, and conditions in +Europe as regards its currencies, debts, trade and credit have +deteriorated. The Naval limitations proposed by Mr. Hughes at +Washington, even if they are ratified, will give practically no relief +to Europe. + + + + + +End of Project Gutenberg's The Paper Moneys of Europe, by Francis W. 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