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diff --git a/29338.txt b/29338.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8c90db6 --- /dev/null +++ b/29338.txt @@ -0,0 +1,9018 @@ +The Project Gutenberg EBook of England and Germany, by Emile Joseph Dillon + +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + + +Title: England and Germany + +Author: Emile Joseph Dillon + +Release Date: July 6, 2009 [EBook #29338] + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: ASCII + +*** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK ENGLAND AND GERMANY *** + + + + +Produced by Irma Spehar and the Online Distributed +Proofreading Team at https://www.pgdp.net (This file was +produced from images generously made available by The +Internet Archive/American Libraries.) + + + + + +ENGLAND AND GERMANY + +BY + +DR. E. J. DILLON + + +WITH AN INTRODUCTION + +BY + +THE HON. W. M. HUGHES, M.P. PRIME MINISTER OF AUSTRALIA + +BRENTANO'S NEW YORK + +CHAPMAN & HALL LTD. LONDON + +1917 + +PRINTED IN GREAT BRITAIN BY RICHARD CLAY & SONS, LIMITED, BRUNSWICK +ST., STAMFORD ST., S.E. 1, AND BUNGAY SUFFOLK + +TO + +H.S.H. ALICE +PRINCESS OF MONACO + +THIS PARTIAL PRESENTMENT OF THE +BEGINNINGS OF A WORLD +CATACLYSM + + + + +INTRODUCTION + + +Behind any human institution there stand a few men--perhaps only one +man--who direct its movement, protect its interests, or serve as its +mouthpiece. This applies to nations. If we wish to know for what a +nation stands and what are its ideals and by what means it seeks to +realise them, we shall do well to know something of the men who lead +its people or express their feelings. + +It is of vital importance that we should understand the attitude of +every one of the nations--both friends and enemies--involved in this +war. For in this way only can we know what is necessary to be done to +achieve victory. + +And the remarkable man who has written this book knows those who lead +the warring nations in this titanic conflict very much better than +ordinary men know their own townsmen. + +Dr. Dillon has moved through the chancelleries of Europe. He has seen +and heard what has been denied to all but very few. In the Balkans, +that cauldron of racial passions which, overflowing, gave our enemies +an ostensible cause for this war, he moved as though an invisible and +yet keenly observant figure. He could claim the friendship of +Venizelos and other Balkan statesmen. He has travelled as a monk +throughout the mountain fastnesses, he has slept in the caves of +Albania. He understands the people of all the Balkans, speaks their +tongues as a native, and knows and assesses at their true value their +leaders. + +At the time of the murder of the Archduke Ferdinand and the +Archduchess, Dr. Dillon was in Austria, and he remained there through +those long negotiations in which Germany tenaciously clung to her +design of war. + +How well he knows Germany let his book speak. His knowledge of Russia +is profound. A master of many languages, he occupied a chair at the +Moscow University for many years, and his insight into Russian +politics is deep. + +In this book he speaks out of the depth of his knowledge, and tells +the people of Britain what this war means to them, and what needs to +be done before we can hope for victory. He speaks plainly because he +feels strongly. + +It may be that we cannot agree with him in everything that he says. +But no one, after reading Dr. Dillon's remarkable book, will any +longer regard the war as but a passing episode. It is a timely +antidote to that fatal delusion. + +For this war is a veritable cataclysm, and the future of the world +hangs upon the result. We must change our lives. Insidiously, while we +have called all foreigners brothers and sought foes amongst ourselves, +the great force of barbarism, in a new guise and with enormous power +of penetration and annexation, has worked for our undoing. This force +now stands bared, in the hideous bestiality of Germany's doctrine of +Might, and it can be defeated only by an adaptation of its methods +that will leave nothing as it was before. + +Dr. Dillon's unfolding of the story of German preparation is, it will +be admitted, one of fascinating interest. Of its value as a +contribution to political and diplomatic history it is not for me to +speak. But to its purpose in keying all men to the pitch; all to a +sense of the great events in which we are taking part, I bear my +testimony. "Germany is wholly alive, physically, intellectually, and +psychically. And she lives in the present and future" (p. 311). And +the living force of Germany requires us to rise to the very fulness of +our powers; for as the champions of truth and right we must prove +ourselves physically and morally stronger than the champions of +soulless might. + +Germany is wholly alive; but she is alive for evil. We whose purpose +is good, whose cause is justice and whose triumph is indispensable if +honest industry and human right are not to disappear from mankind, are +as yet not fully alive to the immensity and necessity of our task. We +must awaken, or be awakened, ere it be too late. + +Germany is living in the present and in the future. It is a present of +determined effort, of unlimited sacrifice, of colossal hope. The +future for which she strives and suffers is a future incompatible +with those ideals which our race cherishes and reveres. Either our +philosophy, our religion and code prevail, or they fade into decay, +and Germany's aims remain. The choice is definite. + +There can be no parley, no compromise with the evil thing for which +Germany fights. There is not room for both. One must go down. + +We must win outright. And we can and shall win--if we bend every +thought, our whole will, our every energy, our utmost intensity of +determination to the great work. Failing this, we shall secure only a +victory equivalent to defeat. We chose the part of free men, and, when +purified by complete self-sacrifice, shall emerge from the ordeal a +great and regenerated people. + +W. M. HUGHES. + + + + +CONTENTS + + +CHAP. PAGE + +INTRODUCTION BY THE HON. W. M. HUGHES vii + +I THE CHARACTER OF GERMANY 1 + +II THE GERMAN SYSTEM OF PREPARATION 7 + +III GERMANY AND ITALIAN FINANCE 27 + +IV THE ANNEXATION MANIA 37 + +V GERMANY AND RUSSIA 53 + +VI THE STATESMANSHIP OF THE ENTENTE 81 + +VII TEUTON POLITICS 88 + +VIII A MACHIAVELLIAN TRICK BY WHICH RUSSIA'S +HAND WAS FORCED 99 + +IX GERMAN PROPAGANDA IN SCANDINAVIA 108 + +X GERMANY AND THE BALKANS 116 + +XI THE RIVAL POLICIES 136 + +XII PROBLEMS OF LEADERSHIP 146 + +XIII PROBLEMS OF FINANCE 161 + +XIV READJUSTMENTS 175 + +XV THE POSITION OF ITALY 192 + +XVI ROUMANIA AND GREECE 214 + +XVII GERMANY'S RESOURCEFULNESS 227 + +XVIII THE PERILS OF PARTY POLITICS 236 + +XIX PAST AND PRESENT 246 + +XX PROBLEMS OF THE FUTURE 272 + +XXI THE FINAL ISSUE 296 + + + + +OURSELVES AND GERMANY + + + + +CHAPTER I + +THE CHARACTER OF GERMANY + + +During the memorable space of time that separates us from the outbreak +of the catastrophic struggle, out of which a new Europe will shortly +emerge, events have shed a partial but helpful light on much that at +the outset was blurred or mysterious. They have belied or confirmed +various forecasts, fulfilled some few hopes, blasted many others, and +obliged the allied peoples to carry forward most of their cherished +anticipations to another year's account. Meanwhile the balance as it +stands offers ample food for sobering reflection, but will doubtless +evoke dignified resignation and grim resolve on the part of those who +confidently looked for better things. + +The items of which that balance is made up are worth careful scrutiny +for the sake of the hints which they offer for future guidance. The +essence of their teaching is that we Allies are engaged not in a war +of the by-past type in which only our armies and navies are contending +with those of the adversary according to accepted rules, but in a +tremendous struggle wherein our enemies are deploying all their +resources without reserve or scruple for the purpose of destroying or +crippling our peoples. Unless, therefore, we have the will and the +means to mobilize our admittedly vaster facilities and materials and +make these subservient to our aim, we are at a disadvantage which will +profoundly influence the final result. It will be a source of comfort +to optimists to think that, looking back on the vicissitudes of the +first twenty months' campaign, they can discern evidences that there +is somewhere a statesman's hand methodically moulding events to our +advantage, or attempering their most sinister effects. Those who fail +to perceive any such traces must look for solace to future +developments. For there are many who fancy that the economy of our +energies has been carried to needless lengths, that the adjustment of +means to ends lacks thoroughness and precision, and that our leaders +have kept over rigorously within the narrow range of partial aims, +instead of surveying the problem in its totality and enlarging the +permanent efficacy of their precautions against unprecedented dangers. + +The twenty months that have just lapsed into history have done much to +loosen the hold of some of the baleful insular prejudices which +heretofore held sway over the minds of nearly all sections of the +British nation. It may well be, therefore, that we are now better able +to grasp the significance of the principal events of the war, and to +seek it not in their immediate effects on the course of the struggle, +but in the roots--still far from lifeless--whence they sprang. For it +is not so much the upshot of the first phases of the campaign as the +deep-lying causes which rendered them a foregone conclusion that force +themselves on our consideration. Those causes are still operative, +and unless they be speedily uprooted will continue to work havoc with +our hopes. + +It is now fairly evident that the present war is but a violent phase +in the unfolding of a grandiose ground idea--the subjugation of Europe +by the Teuton--which was being steadily realized ever since the close +of the Franco-German campaign of 1870. It is likewise clear that, +despite her "swelled head," Germany's estimate of her ability to try +issues with all continental Europe was less erroneous than the faith +of her destined victims in their superior powers of resistance. The +original plan, having been limited to the continental states, was +upset by Great Britain's co-operation with France and Russia. But, +despite this additional drag, Germany has achieved the remarkable +results recorded in recent history. And with some show of reason she +looks forward to successes more decisive still. For in her mode of +conceiving the problem and her methods of solving it lie the secret of +her progress. But there, too, is to be found the counter-spell by +which that progress may be effectually checked; and it is only by +mastering that secret and applying it to the future conduct of the +struggle that we can hope to ward off the dangers that encompass us. + +Germany is like no other State known to human history. She exercises +the authority of an infallible and intolerant Church while disposing +of the flawless mechanism of an absolute State. She is armed with the +most deadly engines of destruction that advanced science can forge, +and in order to use them ruthlessly she mixes the subtlest poisons to +corrupt the wells of truth and debase the standards of right and +wrong. And this she can do without the least qualms of conscience, in +virtue of her firm belief in the amorality of political conduct. Her +members at home and abroad, whose number is not fewer than a hundred +and twenty millions, form a political community of whose compactness, +social sense and single-mindedness the annals of the human race offer +no other example. All are fired by the same zeal, all obey the same +lead, all work for the same object. She sent and is still sending +forth missionaries of her political faith, preachers of the gospel of +the mailed fist, to every country in which their services may prove +helpful. Diplomatists, journalists, bankers, contrabandists, social +agitators, spies, incendiaries, assassins and courtesans, willing to +offer up their energies and their lives in order to circumvent, +despoil or slay the supposed enemies of their race, address themselves +each one to his own allotted task and discharge it conscientiously. + +Those German colonists abroad are the eyes and arms and tongues of the +monster organism of which the brain-centre is Berlin. They endeavoured +to stir up dissension between class and class in Russia, France, +Britain, Belgium, to plant suspicion in the breast of Bulgaria and +Roumania, to create a prussophile atmosphere in Greece, Switzerland +and Sweden, and to bring pressure to bear on the Government of the +United States in the hope of fomenting discord between the American +and British peoples. They have occupied posts of influence in the +Vatican, are devoted to the Moslem Caliph, cultivate friendship with +the Senussi and the ex-Khedive of Egypt, are intriguing with the Negus +of Abyssinia, and spreading lying rumours, false news and vile +calumnies throughout the world. During the years that passed between +the war of 1870 and the outbreak of the present European struggle, +that stupendous organism contrived by those and kindred means to +possess itself of the principal strongholds of international opinion +and influence, the centres of the chief religions, the press, the +exchanges, the world's "key industries," the great marts of commerce +and the banks. It has friends at every Court, in every Cabinet, in +every European Parliament, and its agents are alert and active in +every branch of the administration of foreign lands. And while +suppleness marked their dealings with others, they were inflexible +only in their fidelity to the Teuton cause. Thus in Russia they were +conservative and autocratic in their intercourse with the ruling +spheres, and revolutionary in their relations with the Socialists and +working classes; in France and Britain they were democrats and +pacifists; in Italy they were rabid nationalists or neutralists +according to the political sentiments of their environment; in Turkey, +Morocco, Egypt and Persia staunch friends of Islam. They intrigued +against dynasties, conspired against cabinets, reviled influential +publicists, fostered strikes and tumults, set political parties and +entire states by the ears, dispelled grounded suspicions and armed +various bands of incendiaries and assassins. + +But in spite of cogged dice and poisoned weapons, the comprehensive +way in which the enterprise was conceived, the consummate skill with +which it was wrought out towards a satisfactory issue, the +whole-heartedness of the nation which, although animated by a fiery +patriotism that fuses all parties and classes into one, is yet +governed with military discipline, offer a wide field for imitation +and emulation. For the changes brought about by the first phases of +the war are but fruits of seed sown years ago and tended ever since +with unfailing care, and unless suitable implements, willing hands and +combined energies are employed in digging them up and casting them to +the winds, the second crop may prove even more bitter than the first. + + + + +CHAPTER II + +THE GERMAN SYSTEM OF PREPARATION + + +On the historic third of August when war was formally declared, its +nature was as little understood by the Allies as had been its +imminence. The statesmen who had to full-front its manifestations were +those who had persistently refused to believe in its possibility, and +who had no inkling of its nature and momentousness. Most of them, +judging other peoples by their own, had formed a high opinion of the +character of the German nation and of the pacific intentions of its +Government, and continued to ground their policy in war time on this +generous estimate, which even when upset by subsequent experience +still seems to linger on in a subconscious but not inoperative state. +At first their preparations to meet the emergency hardly went beyond +the expedients to which they would have resorted for any ordinary +campaign. In this they resembled a sea-captain who should make ready +to encounter a gale when his ship was threatened by a typhoon. Hence +their unco-ordinated efforts, their chivalrous treatment of a +dastardly foe, their high-minded refusal to credit the circumstantial +stories of sickening savagery emanating first from Belgium and then +from France, their gentle remonstrances with the enemy, their +carefully worded arguments, their generous understatement of their +country's case, and their suppression of any emotion among their own +folk akin to hatred or passion. In an insular people for whom peace +was an ideal, neighbourliness a sacred duty, and the psychology of +foreign nations a sealed book, this way of reading the bearings of the +new situation and adjusting them to the nation's requirements was +natural and fateful. + +To the few private individuals who had the advantage of experience and +were gifted with political vision the crisis presented itself under a +different aspect. Some of them had foreseen and foretold the war, +basing their forecast on the obvious policy of the German Government +and on the overt strivings of the German nation. They had depicted +that nation as intellectual and enterprising, abundantly equipped with +all the requisites for an exhausting contest, fired with enthusiasm +for a single idea--the subjugation of the world--and devoid of ethical +scruple. And in the clarion's blast which suddenly resounded on the +pacific air they recognized the trump of doom for Teuton Kultur or +European civilization, and proclaimed the utter inadequacy of ordinary +methods to put down this titanic rebellion against the human race. +That has been the gist of every opinion and suggestion on the subject +put forward by the writer of these lines since the outbreak of the +war. + +But even without these repeated warnings it should have been clear +that a carefully calculating people like the Germans, in whom the gift +of organizing is inborn and solicitude for detail is a passion, would +not embark on a preventive war without having first established a just +proportion between their own equipment for the struggle and the +magnitude of the issues dependent on its outcome. It was, further, +reasonable to assume that this was no mere onset of army against army +and navy against navy according to the old rules of the game, but a +mobilization by the two military empires of all their resources--military, +naval, financial, economic, industrial, scientific and journalistic--to +be utilized to the fullest for the destruction of the Entente group. +It was also easy to discern that, whichever side was worsted, the +Europe which had witnessed the beginning of the conflict would be +transfigured at its close, and that Germany would, therefore, not +allow her freedom of action in conducting the war to be cramped by +sentimental respect for the checks and restraints of a political +system that was already dead. Lastly, it might readily be inferred +that the huge resources hoarded up by the enemy during forty years of +preparation would be centupled in value by the favourable conditions +which rendered them capable of being co-ordinated and directed by a +single will to the attainment of a single end. All these previsions, +warranted then by unmistakable tokens, have since been justified by +historic events, and it is to be hoped that the practical conclusions +to which they point may sink into the minds of the allied nations as +well as of their Governments, now that nearly two years have gone by +since they were first expressed. + +The earliest impression which German mobilization left upon the Allies +was that of the preventive character of this war. For it could have +had no other mainspring than a resolve to paralyse the arm of the +Entente, which, if allowed to wax stronger, might smite in lieu of +being smitten. For the moment, however, Germany was neither attacked +nor menaced. Far from that, her rivals were vying with each other in +their strivings to maintain peace. Her condition was prosperous, her +industries thriving, her colonial possessions had recently been +greatly increased, her influence on the affairs of the world was +unquestioned, her citizens were materially well-to-do, her workmen +were highly paid, her capitalists, seconding her statesmen and +diplomatists, had, with gold extracted from France, Britain and +Belgium, woven a vast net in the fine meshes of which most of the +nations of Europe, Asia and America were being insensibly trammelled. +Already her bankers handled the finances, regulated the industries and +influenced the politics of those tributary peoples. And by these +tactics a relationship was established between Germany and most states +of the globe which cut deep into the destinies of these and is become +an abiding factor of the present contest. For that reason, and also +because of the paramount influence of the economic factor on the +results of the struggle, they are well worth studying. + +To her superior breadth of outlook, marvellous organizing powers, the +hearty co-operation between rulers and people, and the ease with +which, unhampered by parliamentary opposition, her Government was +enabled to place a single aim at the head and front of its national +policy, Germany is perhaps more deeply indebted for her successes +during the first phases of the campaign than to the strategy of +Hindenburg or the furious onslaughts of Mackensen. German diplomacy +has been ridiculed for its glaring blunders, and German statesmanship +discredited for its cynical contempt of others' rights and its own +moral obligations. And gauged by our ethical standards the blame +incurred was richly deserved. But we are apt to forget that German +diplomacy has two distinct aspects--the professional and the +economic--and that where the one failed the other triumphed. And if +success be nine-tenths of justification, as the Prussian doctrine +teaches, the statesmen who preside over the destinies of the Teutonic +peoples have little to fear in the way of strictures from their +domestic critics. For they left nothing to chance that could be +ensured by effort. Trade, commerce, finances, journalism, science, +religion, the advantages to be had by royal marriages, by the +elevation of German princes to the thrones of the lesser states, had +all been calculated with as much care and precision as the choice of +sites in foreign countries for the erection of concrete emplacements +for their monster guns. No detail seemed too trivial for the bestowal +of conscientious labour, if it promised a possible return. When in +doubt whether it was worth while to make an effort for some object of +no immediate interest to the Fatherland the German invariably decided +that the thing should be done. "You never can tell," he argued, "when +or how it may prove useful." For years one firm of motor-car makers +turned out vehicles with holes, the object of which no one could guess +until the needs of the war revealed them as receptacles for light +machine-guns. + +Nearly two years of an unparalleled struggle between certain isolated +forces of the Allies and all the combined resources of the Teutons +ought to banish the notion that the results achieved are the fruits +only of Germany's military and naval efficiency. In truth, the +adequacy of her military and naval forces constitutes but an integral +part of a much vaster system. It has hitherto been the fashion among +British and French writers to dwell exclusively on the comprehensiveness +of the measures adopted by the Germans to fashion their land and sea +defences into destructive implements of enormous striking power and +scientific precision. But the German conception of the enterprise was +immeasurably more grandiose. It included every means of offence and +defence actually available or yet to be devised, and testifies to a +grasp of the nature of the problem which, so far as one can judge, has +not even yet been attained outside the Fatherland. As the present +situation and its coming developments present themselves as practical +corollaries of causes which the leaders of Germany rendered operative, +it may not be amiss to describe these briefly. + +The objective being the subjugation of Europe to Teutonic sway, the +execution of the plan was attempted by two different sets of measures, +each of which supplemented the other: military and naval efficiency on +the one hand and pacific interpenetration on the other. The former has +been often and adequately described; the latter has not yet attracted +the degree of attention it merits. For one thing, it was +unostentatious and invariably tinged with the colour of legitimate +trade and industry. Practically every country in Europe, and many +lands beyond the seas, were covered with networks of economic +relations which, without being always emanations of the governmental +brain, were never devoid of a definite political purpose. While Great +Britain, and in a lesser degree France, distracted by parliamentary +strife or intent on domestic reforms, left trade and commerce to +private initiative and the law of supply and demand, the German +Government watched over all big commercial transactions, interwove +them with political interests, and regarded every mark invested in a +foreign country not merely as capital bringing in interest in the +ordinary way, but also as political seed bearing fruit to be +ingathered when _Der Tag_ should dawn. Thus France and Britain +advanced loans to various countries--to Greece, for instance--at lower +rates of interest than the credit of those states warranted, but they +bargained for no political gain in return. Germany, on the contrary, +insisted on every such transaction being paid in political or economic +advantages as well as pecuniary returns. And by these means she tied +the hands of most European nations with bonds twisted of strands which +they themselves were foolish enough to supply. Italy, Russia, Turkey, +Roumania, Bulgaria, Greece, Belgium and the Scandinavian States are +all instructive instances of this plan. Bankers and their staffs, +directors of works and factories, agents of shipping companies, +commercial travellers, German colonies in various foreign cities, +military instructors to foreign armies, schools and schoolmasters +abroad, heads of commercial houses in the different capitals, were all +so many agencies toiling ceaselessly for the same purpose. The effect +of their manoeuvres was to extract from all those countries the +wealth needed for their subjugation. One of the most astounding +instances of the success of these hardy manipulations is afforded by +the Banca Commerciale of Italy, which was a thoroughly German concern, +holding in its hands most of the financial establishments, trades and +industries of Italy. This all-powerful institution possessed in 1914 a +capital of L6,240,000 of which 63 per cent. was subscribed by Italian +shareholders, 20 per cent. by Swiss, 14 per cent. by French, and only +2-1/2 per cent. by Germans and Austrians combined! And the astounding +exertions put forward by the Germans during the first twelvemonth of +the war are largely the product of the economic energies which this +line of action enabled them to store up during the years of peace and +preparation. + +The execution of those grandiose schemes was facilitated by the easy +access which Germany had to the principal markets of the globe. One of +the main objects of her diplomacy had been to break down the tariff +barriers which would have reserved to the great trading empires the +main fruits of their own labour and enterprise. By the Treaty of +Frankfort the French had been compelled to confer on Germany the +most-favoured-nation clause, thus entitling her to enjoy all the +tariff reductions which the Republic might accord to those countries +with which it was on the most amicable terms. British free trade +opened wide the portals of the world's greatest empire to a deluge of +Teuton wares and to a kind of competition which contrasted with fair +play in a degree similar to that which now obtains between German +methods of warfare and our own. Russia, at first insensible to suasion +and rebellious to threats, endeavoured to bar the way to the economic +flood on her western frontiers, but during the stress of the Japanese +war she chose the lesser of two evils and yielded. The concessions +then made by my friend, the late Count Witte, to the German +Chancellor, drained the Tsardom of enormous sums of money and rendered +it a tributary to the Teuton. But it did much more. It supplied +Germany with a satisfactory type of commercial treaty which she easily +imposed upon other nations. Germany's road through Italy was traced by +the mistaken policy of the French Government which, by a systematic +endeavour to depreciate Italian consols and other securities, drove +Crispi to Berlin, where his suit for help was heard, the Banca +Commerciale conceived, and commercial arrangements concluded which +opened the door to the influx of German wares, men and political +ideals. + +A few years sufficed for the fruits of this generous hospitality to +reveal themselves. The influx of wealth and the increased population +helped to render the German army a match for the combined land forces +of her rivals, a formidable navy was created, which ranked immediately +after that of Great Britain, and a large part of Europe was so closely +associated with, and dependent on, Germany that an extension of the +Zollverein was talked of in the Fatherland, and a league of European +brotherhood advocated by the day-dreamers of France and Britain. The +French, however, never ceased to chafe at the commercial chain forged +by the Treaty of Frankfort, but were powerless to break it, while the +British lavished tributes of praise and admiration on Germany's +enterprise, and construed it as a pledge of peace. Russia, alive to +the danger, at last summoned up courage to remove it, and had already +decided to refuse to extend the term of the ruinous commercial treaty, +even though the alternative were war. That was the danger which +stimulated the final efforts of the Kaiser's Government. + +Thus the entire political history of Entente diplomacy during this war +may be summarized as a series of attempts on the part of the Allies to +undo some of the effects of the masterstrokes executed by Germany +during the years of abundance which she owed to the favoured-nation +clause, British free trade and kindred economic concessions. +Interpenetration is the term by which the process has been known ever +since Count Witte essayed it in Manchuria and China. + +The German procedure was simple, yet effective withal. Funds were +borrowed mainly in France, Britain, Belgium, where investors are often +timid and bankers are unenterprising. And then operations were begun. +The first aim pursued and attained was to acquire control of the +foreign trade of the country experimented on. With this object in view +banks of credit were established which lavished on German traders +every help, information and encouragement. Men of Teuton nationality +settled in the land as heads of firms, as clerks without salary, +private secretaries, foremen, correspondents, and rapidly contrived to +get command of the main arteries of the economic organism. German +manufactures soon flooded the country, because those who undertook to +import them could count on extensive credit from the institutions +founded with the money of the very nations whose trade they were +engaged in killing. In this way the competition, not only of all +Entente peoples but also of the natives of the country experimented +on, was systematically choked. And the customers of these banks, +natives as well as Teutons, became apostles of German influence. + +Insensibly the great industrial concerns of the place passed into the +possession of German banks, behind which stood the German empire. A +nucleus of influential business people, having been thus equipped for +action, incessantly propagated the German political faith. German +schools were established and subsidized by the _Deutscher +Schulverein_, clubs opened, musical societies formed, and newspapers +supported or founded, to consolidate the achievements of the +financiers. On political circles, especially in constitutional lands, +the influence of this Teutonic phalanx was profound and lasting. + +In all these commercial and industrial enterprises undertaken abroad +for economic gain and political influence, the German State, its +organs and the individual firms, went hand in hand, supplementing each +other's endeavours. The maxim they adopted was that of their military +commanders: to advance separately but to attack in combination. Not +only the Consul, but the Ambassador, the Minister, the Scholar, the +Statesman, nay the Kaiser[1] himself, were the inspirers, the +partners, the backers of the German merchant. Marschall von +Bieberstein once told me in Constantinople that his functions were +those of a super-commercial traveller rather than ambassadorial. And +he discharged them with efficiency. Laws and railway tariffs at home, +diplomatic facilities and valuable information abroad smoothed the way +of the Teuton trader. Berlin rightly gauged the worth of this pacific +interpenetration at a time when Britons were laughing it to scorn as a +ludicrous freak of grandmotherly government. To-day its results stand +out in relief as barriers to the progress of the Allies in the conduct +of the war. + + [1] The Kaiser is one of the largest shareholders in the + great mercury mines of Italy. + +Of this ingenious way of enslaving foreign nations unknown to +themselves, Italy's experience offers us an instructive illustration. +The headquarters of the German commercial army in that realm were the +offices of the Banca Commerciale in Milan. This institution was +founded under the auspices of the Berlin Foreign Office, with the +co-operation of Herr Schwabach, head of the bank of Bleichroeder. +Employing the absurdly small capital of two hundred thousand pounds, +not all of which was German, it worked its way at the cost of the +Italian people into the vitals of the nation, and finally succeeded in +obtaining the supreme direction of their foreign trade, national +industries and finances, and in usurping a degree of political +influence so durable that even the war is supposed to have only numbed +it for a time. + +Between the years 1895 and 1915 the capital of this institution had +augmented to the sum of L6,240,000, of which Germany and Austria +together held but 2-1/2 per cent., while controlling all the +operations of the Bank itself and of the trades and industries linked +with it. + +The Germans, as a Frenchman wittily remarked, are born with the mania +of annexation. It runs in their blood. And it is not merely territory, +or political influence, or the world's markets that they seek to +appropriate. Their appetite extends to everything in the present and +future, nay, even in the past which they deem worth having. It is thus +that they claim as their own most of Italy's great men, such as Dante, +Giotto, Leonardo da Vinci, Botticelli, Galileo, and it is now asserted +by a number of Teuton writers that Christ Himself came of a Teutonic +stock. + +German organisms, as well as German statesmen, display the same mania +of annexation, and the Banks in especial give it free scope. German +banks differ from French, British and Italian in the nature, extent +and audacity of their operations. It was not always thus. Down to the +war of 1870 their methods were old-fashioned, cautious and slow. From +the year 1872 onward, however, they struck out a new and bold course +of their own from which British and French experts boded speedy +disaster. Private enterprises were turned into joint stock companies, +the capital of prosperous undertakings was increased and gigantic +operations were inaugurated. Between the years 1885 and 1889 the +industrial values issued each year reached an average of 1,770 million +francs; between 1890 and 1895 the average rose to 1,880 millions, and +from 1896 to 1900 it was computed at 2,384 millions.[2] + + [2] Cf. _L'Invasione tedesca in Italia_. Ezio M. Gray. + Firenze. + +Of all German financial institutions the most influential and +prosperous is the Deutsche Bank. It has been aptly termed an empire +within the empire. Its capital, 250 million francs, exceeds that of +the Reichsbank by thirty millions. It is the first of the six great +German banks, of which four are known as the "D" group, because the +first letter of their respective names is D: Deutsche Bank, Dresdner +Bank, Disconto-Gesellschaft and Darmstaedter Bank. The other two are +the Schaffhausenscher Bankverein and the Berliner Handelsgesellschaft. +The total capital of these six concerns amounts to 1,100 million +francs.[3] + + [3] _Op. cit._, p. 113. + +None of these houses is hampered by those rules, traditions or +scruples which limit the activity of British joint stock banks. They +are free to launch into speculations which, to the sober judgment of +our own financiers, must seem wild and precarious, but to which +success has affixed the hall-mark of approval. Each of the six banks +is a centre of German home industries and also of the foreign +transformations of these. To mention an industry is almost always to +connote some one of the six. Before the war broke out one had but to +gaze steadily at the beautiful facade of this or that Russian bank to +discern the Lamia-like monster from the banks of the Spree. The famous +firm of Krupps, for instance, had its affairs closely interwoven with +those of the Berliner Disconto Gesellschaft, and was more than once +rescued from bankruptcy by its timely assistance. Similar help was +afforded to the celebrated firm of Bauer which is known throughout the +world for its synthetical medicines. There were critical moments in +its existence when it was confronted with ruin. The Bank extricated +the firm from its difficulties, and the present dividend of 33 per +cent. has justified its enterprise. + +In this way the latter-day German banks upset all financial +traditions, opened large credits to industries, smoothed the way for +the spread of German commerce, killed foreign competition and +seconded the national policy of their Government. As an instance of +the push and audacity of these modernized institutions, a master +stroke of the Bank of Behrens and Sons of Hamburg may be mentioned: it +bought up the entire coffee crop of Guatemala one year to the +amazement of its rivals and netted a very large profit by the +transaction. + +Now as commerce is international and industry depends for its greatest +successes upon exportation, it was inevitable that the up-to-date +German banks should seek fields of activity abroad and aim at playing +a commanding part in the world's commerce. And they tried and +succeeded. For they alone instinctively divined the new spirit of the +age, which may be termed co-operative and agglutinative. It was in +virtue of this new idea that groups of States were leagued together by +Germany in view of her projected war, and it is the same principle +that impels her, before the conflict has yet been decided, to weld to +herself as many tributary peoples as she may to assist her in the +economic struggle which will be ushered in by peace. Germans first +semiconsciously felt and now deliberately hold that in all departments +of modern life, social, economic and political, our conception of +quantities must undergo a radical change. The scale must be greatly +enlarged. The unit of former times must give place to a group of +units, to syndicates and trusts in commerce and industry, to trade +unions in the labour world, to Customs-federations in international +life. That this shifting of quantities is a correlate of the progress +achieved in technical science and in means of communication, and also +of the vastness of armies and navies and of the aims of the world's +foremost peoples, is since then become a truism, realized not only by +the Germans but by all their allies. + +For individual enterprise, as well as for national isolation, there is +no room in the modern world. Isolation spells weakness and +helplessness there. The lesser neutral States must of necessity become +the clients of the Great Powers and pay a high price for the +protection afforded them. Hence the maintenance of small nations on +their present basis, with enormous colonies to exploit but without +efficient means of defending them, forms no part of Germany's future +programme. And the altruistic professions of the Entente which claims +to be fighting for the rights of little States, whose idyllic +existence it would fain perpetuate, is scoffed at by the Teutons as +chimerical or hypocritical. When this war is over, whatever its +upshot, Central Europe with or without the non-German elements will +have become a single unit, against whose combined industrial, +commercial and military strivings no one European Power can +successfully compete. And the difficulties which geographical +situation has raised against effective co-operation among the Allies +in war time will make themselves felt with increased force during the +economic struggle which will then begin. + +No mere tariff arrangement, but only a genuine league between all the +west European Powers and the British Empire, supplemented by a customs +union between them and the other Allies of the Entente, will then +avail to ward off the new danger and establish some rough approach to +the equilibrium which the present conflict has overthrown. The future +destinies of Europe, as far as one may conjecture from the data +available to-day, will depend largely on the insight of the Entente +nations and their readiness to subordinate national aims and interests +to those of the larger unit which will be the inevitable product of +the new order of things. + +The ideal type of the industrial bank having been thus wrought out, +the Germans, whom a thoroughly commercial education had qualified for +the work, carried on vast operations with a degree of boldness which +was matched only by the thoroughness of their precautions. They +advanced money with a readiness and an open-handedness which the West +European financier set down as sheer folly, but which was the outcome +of close study and careful deliberation. They began by acquainting +themselves with the solvency of their clients, with the nature of the +transactions which these were carrying on, with their business methods +and individual abilities, and to the results of this preliminary +examination they adjusted the extent of their financial assistance. +They had secret inquiry offices to keep them constantly informed of +the condition of the various firms and individuals, and when in doubt +they demanded an insight into the books of the company which was +seldom denied them. The Spanish Inquisition was but a clumsy agency in +comparison with the perfect system evolved by these German banks, +which could at any given moment sum up the prospects as well as the +actual situation of each of their customers. It was this comprehensive +survey which warranted some of the large advances they made to +seemingly insolvent firms which afterwards grew to be the most +prosperous in the Fatherland. + +The methods thus practised at home were adhered to in all those +foreign countries which the German financier, manufacturer or trader +selected for his field of operations. A bank would be opened in the +foreign capital with money advanced mainly by one of the six great +financial institutions. It would be called by some high-sounding name, +suggestive of the country experimented upon, and little by little the +German capital would be diminished to a minimum and local capital +substituted, but the supreme control kept zealously in the hands of +the Teuton directors. Industries would then be financed and finally +bought up. Others would also be financed but deliberately ruined. +Competition would in this way be effectively killed, and little by +little the life-juices of the country would be canalized to suit the +requirements of German trade, industry and politics. + +If an industry in the invaded country was judged capable of becoming +subsidiary to some German industry, the Bank would maintain it for the +purpose of amalgamating the two later on, or else having the foreign +concern absorbed by the Teutonic. This was a labour of patriotism and +profit. But if the business was recognized as a formidable rival to +some German enterprise, it was doomed. The procedure in this case was +simple. The Bank advanced money readily, tied the firm financially, +rendering it wholly tributary; and then when the hour of destiny +struck, the credit was suddenly withdrawn and the curtain rung up in +the Bankruptcy Court. When this consummation became public, the +unsuspecting foreigner would ask with naive astonishment: "How can it +be bankrupt? I understood that Germans were financing it." They were, +and it was precisely for that reason, and because it was on the way to +prosperity as a rival to some German firm, that it was suffocated.[4] + + [4] Cf. _L'Invasione tedesca in Italia_, pp. 118, 119. + +This ingenious system proved exceptionally effective in Brazil. It has +been said that that republic is become a dependency of Germany. What +cannot be gainsaid is that about one-third of Brazil's national +debt[5] is owing to German bankers, and the whole financial and +industrial movement of the country is swayed by the Society of +Colonization which is German, by the German Society for Mutual +Protection, by the German-Brazilian Society and by the three +Navigation Companies whose steamers ply between Brazil and the +Fatherland.[6] It is because of the far-reaching power and influence +which has accrued to Germany from this successful invasion that +Professor Schmoller of the Berlin University could write: "It behoves +us to desire at any and every cost that, by the next century, a German +land of twenty or thirty million inhabitants shall arise in Southern +Brazil. It is immaterial whether it remains part of Brazil or +constitutes an independent State or enters into close relations with +the German Empire. But without a connection guaranteed by battleships, +without the possibility of Germany's armed intervention in Brazil, its +future would be jeopardized." + + [5] 1050 million francs. + + [6] _Op. cit._, p. 120. + +It is the Monroe doctrine that is commonly credited with thwarting +these designs on South America. But as a matter of plain fact, it is +to the British Navy and to nothing else that the credit is due. Were +it not for the known resolve of the British nation to co-operate in +case of need with the American people in their exertions to uphold +that doctrine against Germany, the Berlin Cabinet would long ago have +formally established a firm footing in Southern Brazil and the United +States Government would have been powerless to prevent it.[7] + + [7] An instructive article on the subject by Mr. Moreton + Frewen appeared in the _Nineteenth Century_ of February, + 1916. + + + + +CHAPTER III + +GERMANY AND ITALIAN FINANCE + + +It was in congruity with those principles and methods that the Banca +Commerciale, which had its headquarters in Milan, set itself to +discharge the complex functions of a financial, industrial, commercial +and political agency of German interpenetration in Italy. + +To German customers and those Italians who imported German goods, the +Banca Commerciale allowed long credits and easy means of payment. To +all who were in need of implements, machinery, or materials for a new +enterprise, the bank "recommended" German houses, and those who were +wise construed the "recommendation" as an ultimatum. For if it was +ignored, their names were inscribed on the black books of the bank, +and by means of an efficacious system of secret dossiers, handled by a +confidential information bureau,[8] they found themselves thrust into +a "credit vacuum," boycotted by finance and condemned to bankruptcy. +All banks shunned them. Their bonds became mere scraps of paper. +Every enterprise to which they set their hands was blighted, and +nothing remained for them but to abandon their avocations or surrender +at discretion. + + [8] This secret information bureau is everywhere a potent + engine of attack in German hands. It renders deliberate + libellers and defamers immune against the action of the law. + The victims feel the effects but cannot point to the cause. + The _fiches_, as the certificates are called, are couched in + conventional terms and bear no signature. In the case of + persons whom the bank desires to ruin, these documents are + sentences of commercial death. + +But besides this executive of destruction there was another and still +more important board, whose work was wholly constructive. It was +commonly known as the "service of information." Its functions were to +collect at first hand all useful data about Italian commerce and +industry, to draw up tabulated reports for the use of Germans at home +engaged in trade and industry. These lists indicated current prices, +the qualities of the goods in demand, the favourite ways of packing +and consigning these, samples of manufactures, statistics of +production, the addresses of all firms dealing with Italians--in a +word, every kind of data calculated to enable German trade and +industry to compete successfully with their rivals. The manner in +which this body of information was drawn up, sifted, classified, and +made accessible, deserves unstinted admiration. To say that commercial +espionage was practised largely in the working of this comprehensive +system is but another way of stating that it was German. + +The Banca Commerciale, which was the head and centre of this +organization, was, as a matter of course, called Italian. For every +similar institution, commercial, journalistic or other, which has for +its object the realization of the Teutonic plan of internationalization, +invariably wears the mask of the nationality of the country in which +it operates. And in this case the mask was supplied by Italians, on +whom the bank bestowed all the highest _honorary_ posts, while +reserving the influential ones for Germans and Austrians. Thus the +moving spirits of this vast organization were Herrn Joel, Weil and +Toeplitz, men of uncommon business capacity, who devoted all their +time and energies to the attainment of the end in view. And their +zeal, industry and ingenuity were rewarded by substantial results, +which have left an abiding mark on Italian politics and entered for a +great deal into the attitude of the nation towards the two groups of +belligerents. In a relatively short span of time foreign competition +in Italian markets was checked, German products ousted those of their +rivals, and at last the very sources of Italy's economic life were in +the hands of the Teuton, whose continued goodwill became almost a +vital necessity to the struggling nation. + +Already in the year 1912 Germany stood first among Italy's customers, +whether we consider the list of her exports or that of imports. Italy +bought from that empire goods valued at 626,300,000 francs, and sold +it produce worth 328,200,000 francs; whereas Great Britain, who +supplies Italy with the bulk of her coal, exported only 577,100,000 +francs worth, while her imports were valued at 264,400,000 francs. For +France the figures were 289,600,000 and 222,600,000 francs +respectively. + +The method by which Italian industries were assailed, shaken, and then +purchased and controlled by this redoubtable organization, bore, as we +saw, all the marks of German commercial ethics. Sharp practice which +recognizes as its only limitation the strong arm of the penal law, is +a fair description of the plan of campaign. Against this insidious +process none of the native enterprises had the strength to offer +effective resistance. One by one they were drawn into the vast net +woven by the three German Fates--Joel, Weil and Toeplitz. The various +iron, mechanical and shipbuilding works, which represented the germs +from which native industries were to grow, were sucked into the Teuton +maelstrom. The larger and the smaller steamship navigation companies +likewise fell under the direction of the Banca Commerciale, which +permitted some of them to exist and even to thrive up to a certain +point, beyond which their usefulness to the general plan would have +turned to harm. In this way Italy's entire mercantile marine became +one of the numerous levers in the hands of the interpenetrating +German. And the importance of this lever for political purposes can +neither be gainsaid nor easily overstated. + +In every little town and village which sends a quota of emigrants to +the transatlantic liners, agents of the various steamship companies +are always about and active. Being intelligent and enterprising, their +influence on local politics is irresistible, and it was uniformly +employed in those interests which it was the object of the Banca +Commerciale to further. "This institution," writes an Italian expert, +who has studied the subject with unusual care, "being the mistress of +the dominant economic organisms of the nation, makes use of them to +carry out a germanophile policy. It employs them for the purpose of +exercising a directive action in all elections, commercial, provincial +and general. Every servant of a steamship navigation company, every +purveyor of emigrants is at the same time and by the very force of +things an electoral agent. The position of arbitress and mistress of +the steamship companies carries with it possession of the keys of the +national wealth, and is consequently a formidable weapon of aggressive +competition against all industries, Italian and foreign, which are not +affiliated to those of Germany. The Banca Commerciale, having obtained +that supremacy, forced the Italian companies to lead a languishing +existence in straitened circumstances, whereas they might easily have +grown rich and flourishing. It permits our steamship companies to +subsist and even to earn somewhat, but only just enough to suffice for +the declaration of a modest dividend. That is why Italian navigation +companies levy such excessive rates of freight, why their service is +not organized in accordance with rational and latter day standards, +why they take no thought of winning foreign markets or of national +expansion.[9] They have no means of consigning merchandise at the +domicile, so that the consignees are put to enormous expense for +collection and delivery. And to make matters still worse, Italian +navigation companies are bound with those of Germany by special secret +conventions, which oblige them to abandon to their rivals certain +kinds of merchandise of the Near and the Far East." + + [9] Cf. Preziosi, _La Germania a la Conquista dell' Italia_, + p. 57 fol. + +If we examine the peculiarly Teuton ways of trade competition in their +everyday guise, and without the glamour of political ideals to +distract our attention, we are confronted with phenomena of a +repulsive character. For the German's keen practical sense, his +sustained concentration of effort on the furtherance of material +interests, and his scorn of ethical restraints render him a formidable +competitor in pacific pursuits and a dangerous enemy in war. His +moral sense is not so much dulled by experience as warped by +education. It may be likened to a clock which has not stopped but +shows the wrong hour. He has been taught that there are times and +circumstances when religious and ethical standards may or must be set +aside, and he arrogates to himself the right of determining them. +Without examining into stories of preternatural meanness and perfidy +which have come into vogue since the outbreak of the war, it is fair +to say that dirty tricks, destructive of all social intercourse, +formed part of the German commercial procedure in France, Britain and +Russia, the only proviso being that they were not penalized by the +criminal law of the country. + +An amusing but nowise edifying instance turns upon Paris fashions. +That Berlin, like Vienna, should seek to vie with Paris in setting the +fashion of feminine finery to the world is conceivable and legitimate. +But that Germans should compete with Paris in Paris fashions connotes +a psychological frame of mind which is better understood by the +inmates of a prison than by a mercantile community. American ladies +visiting the French capital to order their gowns are astonished to +note that no fashions really new have been shown to them in the great +Paris houses. They had just seen them all in the German capital. And +the Paris models destined to be placed on the market next season turn +out to be identical with those which the fair visitors had already +inspected in Berlin and could have purchased there at a much lower +price. How this could be is explained simply. A German merchant in +continuous relations with the staffs of the Paris firms clandestinely +obtains from some of the members for a high price the models which are +still being kept secret, has them copied in large numbers in Berlin +and sold at a cheap price. True, the German workmanship lacks the +dainty finish of the Paris article, but the difference is such as +appeals only to the eye of a connoisseur. + +In Italy similar phenomena were observed frequently. A firm in +Florence celebrated for special types of wooden utensils which were +never successfully imitated elsewhere was ruined by commercial +espionage. One day the proprietor engaged the services of two foreign +workmen who laboured hard and steadily for some time and then +departed, to his great regret. Six months later Germany dumped on the +Italian markets the very same articles in vast quantities, and at a +price so low that the Italian firm could not hope to compete with +them. At first, indeed, the Florence house made a valiant stand +against the invasion, but had finally to give up the fight as +hopeless. Later on the proprietor learned that the two honest-looking +workmen were first-class German engineers, whose only objects in +entering his service were to acquaint themselves with his methods, +copy his models and then strangle his trade. And these objects they +achieved to their satisfaction.[10] + + [10] _L'Invasione tedesca_, p. 147. + +Thus, in order to strangle concerns that compete with them +successfully, the average German merchant sticks at nothing. His maxim +is, that in trade as in all forms of the struggle for existence, +necessity knows no law. And he is himself the judge of necessity. The +history of German industry in Italy is full of instructive examples +of this disdain of moral checks, but one will suffice as a type. It +turns upon the struggle which the Teuton invaders carried on against +the Italian iron industry, which for a while held its own against all +fair competition. In their own country, the German manufacturers sold +girders at L6 10_s._ the ton. The profits made at this price enabled +them to offer the same articles in Switzerland for L6, in Great +Britain for L5 3_s._ and in Italy for L3 15_s._ Now, as the cost of +production in Germany fluctuated between L4 5_s._ and L4 15_s._ per +ton, it is evident that the dead loss incurred by the German +manufacturers on Italian sales varied between 10_s._ and L1 per ton. +But this sacrifice was offered up cheerfully because its object was +the destruction of the growing iron industry of Northern Italy and the +clearing of the ground for a German monopoly.[11] The spirit that +animates the Teuton producer, in his capacity as rival, was clearly +embodied by one of the principal manufacturers of aniline dyes in +Frankfort, who remarked to an Italian business man: "I am ready to +sell at a dead loss for ten years running rather than lose the Italian +market, and if it were necessary I would give up for the purpose all +the profits I have made during the past ten years."[12] To contend +with any hope of success against men of this stamp, one should be +imbued with qualities resembling their own. And of such a commercial +equipment the business community of Great Britain have as yet shown no +tokens. + + [11] _L'Invasione tedesca in Italia_, p. 149. + + [12] _Op. cit._, p. 150. + +In Italy the Banca Commerciale was wont to send to every firm, whether +it had or had not dealings with it, a tabulated list of questions to +be answered in writing. The ostensible object was to obtain +trustworthy materials to serve for the Annual Review of the economic +movement in the country published every year by the Bank. In reality +the ends achieved were far more important, as we may infer from the +use to which all such information in France was put. There the +well-known agency of Schimmelpfeng, which was in receipt of a +subvention from the German Chamber of Commerce, was a centre of secret +information respecting the solvency, the prospects, the debts and +assets of every firm in France, and its tabulated information about +French commerce and industry, together with all the knowledge that had +been secretly gleaned, was duly sent to Berlin. + +Russians complain somewhat tardily of the prevalence of the same +system among themselves. "Every day," writes the _Novoye Vremya_, +"fresh details are leaking out respecting a certain German firm, ideal +in its resourcefulness, which succeeded in spreading a vast net over +all Russia. It has been satisfactorily established that Germans +occupied many responsible posts in the organization, and that +these[13] officials were subjects of the German Empire. At the head of +the entire business in Russia down to a recent date was also a German +subject." The kind of information gathered by the agents of the +company, "for business purposes," is clear from a circular issued by +the firm just a fortnight before the outbreak of the war. + + [13] It is an American Company for the sale of certain + machines. The Russian organ mentions all the names. For my + purpose this is unnecessary. The curious may find them in the + _Novoye Vremya_ of 5/18 August, 1915. + + +THE FIRM OF XYZ + +"Tula, + +"5/18 July, 1914. + +"_District Card for the Collectors of the Circuit._ + +"_Form N 246._ + +"We have forwarded you to-day a number of cards of the printed form N +246, which you are requested to have filled in at once and placed at +the head of form 490 of the corresponding district. We draw your +attention herewith to the necessity of enumerating on the first table +of form N 246 all the villages and other places of the circuit of each +district collector, whether or no they contain debtors of ours, and of +stating in the second table the number of inhabitants. The +registration is to be done by the official charged with that part of +the work: each circuit is to be entered separately and the villages +and places it contains to be given in alphabetical order. These lists +are to be verified every six months and fresh information set out +respecting the growing number of our debtors. We request you to take +this work in hand at once and without delay. + +"THE CONTROL DEPARTMENT, TULA." + +When this circular was published in Moscow the general director of the +firm wrote to certain provincial newspapers pointing out that the +company is American, not German. "It is curious," a Russian journal +remarks, "that an American firm should need a map containing all the +villages and hamlets of the districts, with the number of their +inhabitants, irrespective of the presence there of the company's +debtors."[14] + + [14] _Novoye Vremya_, 5/18 July, 1916. + + + + +CHAPTER IV + +THE ANNEXATION MANIA + + +Another instructive example of the Annexation mania, as it displays +itself in German commercial undertakings, comes to us from Russia. + +It is only one of many, a typical instance of a recognized method. The +Franco-Russian joint-stock company Provodnik is known throughout +Europe. It manufactures tyres and other rubber wares. The capital, +which amounted to only 700,000 roubles at the date of its foundation, +in the year 1888, had increased to 22,000,000 by the time when war was +declared. It is closely connected with another company named the +Buffalo, which has its headquarters in Riga and was promoted by the +President of the Provodnik, M. Wittenberg, together with several +Austrian capitalists. M. Wittenberg is President of both companies, +and the Provodnik has assisted the Buffalo on various occasions, even +during the war, notwithstanding the fact that the shareholders of the +Buffalo are mostly German subjects. On January 2, 1914, another +company was created, this time in Berlin, and called the "German +Provodnik." Now, according to the instructions laying down the rights +of the Board (Par. 24), wares may not be delivered on credit to any +firm or institution for the value of more than 50,000 roubles, and +not even to this amount unless the solvency of the recipient is beyond +question. + +In spite of this clearly marked limitation the Board of the +Franco-Russian Provodnik, which exerted itself with unwonted zest to +supply the German Provodnik with motor-tyres shortly before the war, +opened a credit of 498,000 roubles in favour of this firm. The manager +of the warehouses of the Riga products in New York is a German subject +named Lindner. The managers in Zurich and Copenhagen are also German +subjects.[15] + + [15] Their names are Johann Assman and Rudolf Meyer. Cf. + _Novoye Vremya_, 11/24 August, 1915. + +It is not to be wondered at that countries like Italy and Russia, poor +in capital and industry, fell an easy prey to the ruthless German +invader, who, with the help of British, French, and even Italian and +Russian savings, suffocated the nascent industries of the respective +nations, killed foreign competition, earned large profits, obtained +control of the country's resources and an intimate knowledge of the +political secrets of their respective Governments. "Many Germans," +wrote an Italian Review,[16] "serving in Italian establishments are in +possession of lists of the fortresses, measurements, distances, +positions of the roads and footpaths, they have found the points of +triangulation and acquired all requisite data and information about +them. And to-morrow, should war break out, they will accompany and +guide the German or Austrian invaders." + + [16] _Rassegna Contemporanea._ + +How keen they are to make themselves conversant with matters of +political moment in the guise of honest workmen is becoming fairly +well known to day, although it may be taken for granted that if peace +were concluded to-morrow these same commercial spies would find +hospitality among some of the easy-going merchants of Great Britain, +who still refuse to believe in the obvious danger or to act upon their +belief. In November 1912 the Italian Minister of the Marine called for +tenders for the supply of silver dinner-plate for the warships. At the +critical moment, when the decision was about to be taken, the German +firm of Hermann, which has its headquarters in Vienna, reduced its +offer first by 18 per cent., then by 20, and finally by 20.13 per +cent. in order to get the order. For the order carried with it, for +the representative of the firm, Herr Forster, _the permanent right of +access_ to all naval arsenals of Italy.[17] + + [17] _L'Invasione tedesca in Italia_, p. 171. + +The _naivete_ of Italy in matters of this delicate nature stands out +in jarring contrast to the habitual caution of that diplomatic nation, +and has not yet been satisfactorily explained from the psychological +point of view. One is puzzled to understand how, months after the +present war had begun, the press of Genoa could announce that the +supply of electric motors for the Italian marine and of ventilators +for Italy's fortified places on her eastern frontier had been +adjudicated to two German firms, on the ground that their tenders were +the lowest.[18] + + [18] _Op. cit._, p. 171. + +One of the largest automobile and motor works in the German Empire is +the Benz and Rheinische Automobil und Motoren Fabrik Actien +Gesellschaft of Mannheim. It supplies the Kaiser with his cars and has +branches everywhere. In Italy, too, it exists and flourishes. But +there the great German firm is modestly disguised under the name of +the Societa Italiana Benz. And it is so modest that in spite of its +gorgeous warehouse in the Via Floria (Rome), of its luxurious +head-office in the Via Finanze, of its well-equipped workshop for +repairing and fitting and its little army of agents actively pushing +the business all over Italy, its capital, all told, amounts only to +30,000 lire, or L1,000! The firm is managed by a German engineer whose +kith and kin are fighting in the Kaiser's army. And this German +engineer, Herr Matt, has free access to the Italian War Minister, even +now,[19] when it is question of manufacturing projectiles; and he has +continuous relations with the Italian Airmen's Brigade. + + [19] Cf. _L'Idea Nazionale_. The words "even now" refer to + November 22, 1915, and may be equally true to-day. + +Electricity in Italy, together with all its auxiliary trades and +industries, was, like every other lucrative enterprise, in the hands +of Germans and German Swiss. The names of the various company +directors had the usual familiar Teuton sound. When the European +conflict broke out it seemed for a moment as if all these German +concerns must come to a sudden and dire end. But just as the German +engineer Herr Matt, whose relatives are officers in the Kaiser's army, +has free access to the Italian War Minister and carries on his +business in Italy as usual, so the electrical concerns had merely to +change one or two adjectives in their trading names and were forthwith +shielded from harm. A case in point which is valuable because typical +occurred recently. The Italian Electro-technical Association published +a list of the manufacturers of electric machines and requisites in +Italy, and by way of introduction set down the following patriotic +remarks: "This list is addressed to those who at the present moment +feel it to be their duty to uphold and encourage the production and +development of materials for electricity. Importation from abroad, +which we favoured when Italian industry was still in an embryonic +stage, _degenerated especially in consequence of the action of the +Germans_, into a veritable conquest of the markets; and no weapon, +licit or illicit, was spurned to destroy our sources of production, +and suffocate our nascent initiative." + +These are pathetic words. They are calculated to appeal with force to +the Italian who loves his country. But when one looks more closely +into the list of Italian producers one is disappointed to find the +same familiar names as before:[20] Allgemeine Electricitaets +Gesellschaft, Thomson Houston, the Mannesmann Tubes Co., the Italian +Brown Boveri Co., etc. The nationalist Italian press organ which first +directed public attention to these German subtleties asks pertinently: +"Were not and are not the real producers named in this list the same +who were the prime movers in the deplorable foreign conquest of the +Italian market?"[21] + + [20] Felix Deutsch, Karl Zander, Otto Joel, Karl von Siemens, + Walter Boveri, Karl Kapp, etc. + + [21] _L'Idea Nazionale_, September 8, 1915. + +The Banca Commerciale, which was admittedly an all-powerful German +institution, and has the control, direct or indirect, of most of the +industries, the silk manufacture, metallurgical and mechanical works +of the country and of thirty-four electrical companies in Italy: which +possess a capital of 434,000,000 francs and produce energy equal to +940,000 h.p.: found itself in an unpleasant predicament as soon as the +King of Italy declared war against Austria-Hungary. But Teuton +resourcefulness solved the problem with ease and seeming thoroughness +by inducing certain German officials on the board to resign and +appointing as Italian director a gentleman known for his +philo-Germanism. But the three creators of the bank were left: Herrn +Joel, Toeplitz and Weil, and although it was affirmed solemnly that +Joel was no longer the director but M. Fenoglio, it has been publicly +proved that after the resignation of the former, the latter, before +sending a _consignment of gold to Berlin_,[22] had to ask for and +actually received the authorization of Herr Joel.[23] + + [22] On May 21, 1915. + + [23] _L'Idea Nazionale_, November 8, 1915. + +The following brief summary of the companies and enterprises in which +the Banca Commerciale is interested may enable the British reader to +form an idea of its decisive influence on the economic and political +life of the Italian nation: they include eighteen of the largest +companies of textile industries; sixteen of the most important +companies of chemical, electrical and kindred industries; six of the +chief companies of alimentation; twenty-six transport companies; +twenty-seven of the principal companies of mechanical industries and +naval construction; six building companies; five of the chief mining +companies; twenty-eight of the largest electrical companies; and +twenty-two miscellaneous.[24] + + [24] _Giornale d'Italia_, November 17, 1915. + +Thus every artery and vein of the economic organism of Italy is +swathed and pressed and choked by this German isolator, which nobody +dares to pull away. For if we turn from the economic to the political +aspect of this curious phenomenon, we shall find that the companies +enumerated give work to scores of thousands of operators and +employees, through whose willing instrumentality they become vast +electoral agencies. "It is obvious," we are authoritatively assured, +"that the influence of such companies in administrative and political +elections is put forth in congruity with the interests at stake, a +circumstance which explains how it comes that many Italian politicians +and representatives are, directly or otherwise, chained to the chariot +of the Banca Commerciale and indirectly to that of Germany's +policy."[25] In Italy the deputies are, with few exceptions, the +humble servants of their constituents, and are powerless to shake +themselves free from local influences. "It is easy to infer from this +what efforts have to be made and what compromises must be acquiesced +in by those deputies whose election depends on such institutions +which, aware that money is more than ever the nerve of political +contests, subscribe to the election expenses, and assure in this way +the respectful gratitude of the parliamentary recipients of their +benefactions. And all this is executed with order and discipline. +Examples could be quoted and names mentioned."[26] + + [25] Cf. Preziosi, _La Germania a la Conquista dell' Italia_, + p. 66. + + [26] _Ibid._, p. 67. + +The unsuspected ways in which this remarkable organization destroys, +constructs and draws its sustenance from its victims are a revelation. +Imagine a few British bankers possessed of two hundred thousand pounds +and conceiving the plan of wresting the economic markets of Italy +from Britain's rivals, building up an all-powerful organization with +Italian money, throttling Italian industries and commerce with the +help of Italian agents paid for the purpose out of the hard-earned +savings of the Italian people, and then yoking the national policy to +the interests of Great Britain. One would laugh to scorn such a mad +scheme, and set down its authors as wild visionaries. Yet that was the +programme of the little band of audacious Germans who conceived the +design of teutonizing Italy. And they had almost realized it when the +war broke out. Even the halfpence scraped together by poor emigrants +and half-starved Sicilian working-men were diverted from the savings +banks into banks of German origin, two of which held four hundred +million francs of the nation's economies a few months ago. + +It was not to be expected that the domain of foreign politics should +long escape the notice or be spared the experiments of this +all-absorbing organization. What excites our wonder are the +superiority of its method and the completeness of its success. To the +thinking of Germany's leaders international politics and foreign trade +are correlates. In the Near East, where so many of Italy's interests +are now concentrated, the Societa Commerciale d'Oriente of +Constantinople, being one of the agencies of the Banca Commerciale, +was also one of the canals through which this influence passed. Under +the Italian flag and with the co-operation of Italian diplomacy, that +"little business" of Germany was conscientiously transacted which +consisted in the adaptation and employment of Italian expansion as an +instrument for Teutonic interpenetration. Whithersoever we turn our +gaze we discern, lurking under the comely vesture of Italy, the clumsy +form of the Teuton. It is amusing to reflect that the recent railway +concessions in Asia Minor, for which Italian statesmen laboured so +hard and so long, went in reality to the Banca Commerciale, which is +but a roundabout way of saying to Germany. And in order to win their +suit and have those advantages conferred on "Italy," King Victor's +Government agreed to renounce their claims for the reimbursement of +the expenses incurred during the administration of the occupied +Turkish islands. This sacrifice meant tens of millions of francs, kept +from the pockets of Italian taxpayers and handed over to the German +bankers, who spent them in promoting anti-Italian projects. The Bank +of Albania was also conceived originally as an organ of German +propaganda, and was pushed forward by the same set of agents who +induced the Italian Government to employ them as its own. + +In those ways the seemingly modest little bank scheme which Friedrich +Weil with Crispi's help initiated in 1890, grew until it acquired the +influence of a State within the State. And then it began to discharge +functions unique in the history of the banking world. Its employees +became diplomatists and statesmen at a moment's notice, ended wars, +and drafted treaties. The Banca Commerciale put a stop to the campaign +against Turkey which was a thorn in the side of Teutonism and settled +the terms of peace in accordance with its own judgment. It was not an +ambassador or a minister who opened the pourparlers in Stamboul and +continued them at Ouchy, but an agent of the Banca Commerciale. It +was that same agent who immediately afterwards, in concert with +colleagues of his bank, negotiated the treaty, reporting by telegraph +to the headquarters of the bank in Milan every important conversation +he had with the Turkish delegates.[27] At a later date important +conversations between the British Foreign Office and the Consulta were +entered into in the name and for the alleged interests of Italy, but +the principal part in the drawing up of the terms of the settlement +arrived at was taken by Signor Nogara of the Societa Commerciale +d'Oriente,--the company which the concessions demanded were destined +to benefit. In fine, the parasite had thus become almost equal in +power to the body on which it battened. + + [27] Signor Preziosi gives the names of those agents as MM. + Volpi, Bertolini and Nogara (_op. cit._, p. 71). + +A well-known politician and member of the Italian Legislature, Di +Cesaro, narrated the following curious incident in a public speech +delivered on March 17, 1915: "An Italian Admiral, having had the +audacity to request the immediate delivery of an order for arms +manufactured by the works which are under the control of the Banca +Commerciale, was relieved of his functions within twenty-four hours, +and his place was taken by another Admiral, who by chance happened to +be the brother of one of the negotiators of the Italo-Turkish Peace of +Ouchy." And as we saw, the negotiators of that peace were officials of +the Banca Commerciale. An authority on the subject[28] wrote: "For +many years the Banca Commerciale has contrived, directly or +indirectly, according to circumstances, to take a hand in the +formation of various ministries.... As a matter of fact, on its +governing board there are seven senators, many deputies, and a +numerous host of political notabilities. It has its tentacles +everywhere, high up and low down, in Italy and abroad, in peace time +and in war time, when our native land is elated with good fortune and +when it is cast down with bad. Its hand lies heavy upon everything and +everybody. It is the arbitress in the choice of good and evil and is +under no obligation to render an account of its doings to any one.... +In war time we are certain to feel greatly hampered by the meshes of +such a firmly woven net."[29] This anticipation has since come true. + + [28] Professor Bondi, ex-Questor of Milan. + + [29] Rivelazioni postume alle Memorie di un questore, 1913. + Cf. Preziosi, _La Germania a la Conquista dell' Italia_, p. + 75 ff. + +Like the vampire that soothes its victim while drawing its life-blood, +the parasitic German organism cast a spell over influential Italians +of the community and imparted to them a feeling that things were going +well with themselves and their country. Money passed from hand to +hand. Labour found remunerative employment. Towns in decay were +galvanized into new life. And all Italy was grateful. Milan, the +"moral capital" of the kingdom, where a couple of decades before the +name of Germany was execrated, became itself very largely Teutonic and +was dominated by a rich and flourishing German colony. Venice, Genoa, +Rome, Florence, Naples, Palermo and Torino, leavened in the same +plentiful degree with pushing subjects of the Kaiser, turned towards +Berlin as the sunflower towards the orb of day. + +Against Austria, Italians might write and talk to their hearts' +content, but towards Germany feelings of respect verging on awe and of +gratitude bordering on genuine friendship were cherished by every +institution and leading individual in the kingdom. And when the hour +struck to wrench Italy from that monster vampire, the task was so +arduous and fraught with such danger that no Cabinet without the +insistent encouragement of the whole nation would have attempted it. +The policy of every Foreign Secretary was and still is dominated by +this unnatural relationship to the Teuton, and it came at last to be +acknowledged as a political dogma that Germany must in no case be +confounded with Austria. Indeed, it is fair to assert that the +governing circles of both countries held and hold that nothing should +be allowed to mar these friendly feelings, not even the circumstance +that Germany as Austria's ally is bound to stand by her during the +war. Hence when the friction between Italy and Austria was growing +dangerous, Germany was ready with two expedients for keeping her +friendly intercourse with the former country intact. She first assumed +the role of umpire between them, endeavouring to beat down the demands +of the one while spurring on the other to a higher degree of +liberality, and when her well-laid and skilfully executed plan +unexpectedly failed, in consequence of the interposition of a _deus ex +machina_, she produced a draft treaty, complete in all details, which +was to rob war between Italy and herself, if circumstances should +render it unavoidable, of all its frightfulness and savagery. The two +nations virtually said to one another: "Whatever else we may do, we +shall steer clear of mutual hostilities to the best of our ability. +But as the action and reaction of alliances may thwart our efforts and +force us into war against each other, we hereby undertake that that +war shall be but a simulacrum of the struggle that we are at present +waging against all our other adversaries. We shall respect each +other's property religiously, for we shall both stand in need of each +other when the exhausting struggle is ended and the wounds it +inflicted have to be dressed and healed. We Germans have invested +thousands of millions of francs in Italy, the one foreign country for +which we feel genuine affection. You Italians have thriven on our +commercial and industrial enterprise. Spare our property now and you +shall not rue your self-containment. After the war the Entente people +will shun us as lepers, and our only hope of finding outlets for our +commerce is through the neutral States. Now, of all the European Great +Powers, Italy is the only one qualified to render us great services of +this nature. And she will be glad of a partner whose help is free from +the alloy of jealousy or hostility. For our interests do not clash, +whereas those of Italy and the Entente Powers never can run parallel. +In the Adriatic she will find the Slavs pitted against her, in Asia +Minor the Russians, French, British, Greeks, and in the Eastern +Mediterranean the three last-named States. But at no point does +Germany cross her path. Our common hope in the future is based on our +experience of the past. It is knowledge rather than trust. We Germans +succeeded in laying the foundations of your economic strength. And now +that Austria's rivalry has ceased, we will contribute to your +political growth. With the help of our organizing talent you will +become the France of the future. Your population is already well-nigh +equal to that of the Republic. In ten years it will be more numerous, +and will still go on increasing. Tunis has been built up by Italian +toil. Nature has assigned the Mediterranean to Italy as her natural +domain. The overlordship of the Midland Sea is yours by right, and in +co-partnership with us you shall assert and enforce this right. Mind +your steps, therefore, in performing the difficult egg dance which the +European War may impose on us both. You are not, cannot be, friends of +France, closely though you are related by blood. Neither can the +French become our friends. Therefore you and we are natural allies, as +your far-sighted politicians like Crispi perceived. Even Sonnino sees +that and acknowledges it. The one political idea of his life was to +solder Italy firmly to Germany. And that is still the desire of your +aristocracy. Fight with Austria, if you must, but Italy and Germany +must not become armed enemies." + +Nearly two milliards of francs of German money are invested in +commercial and industrial enterprises and immovable property in Italy, +besides the value of ships detained at Italian ports, some of which +have cargoes valued at several million francs. The Kaiser is himself +the largest shareholder in the Italian mercury mines of Monte Amiata, +his Foreign Secretary, von Jagow, is another. And they are resolved +not to relinquish their hold. That Prince von Buelow should move every +lever to save this precious pledge was natural, and that Italian +statesmen with their germanophile leanings should readily fall in with +his scheme is not to be wondered at. The Kaiser's ambassador proposed +that in the case of war each contracting party should respect the +property of the other. This formula sounds decorous. Its meaning is +profound. A treaty embodying these stipulations was agreed to and +secretly signed by Prince von Buelow and Baron Sidney Sonnino, whose +admiration for Germany embodied itself in all the more important acts +of his political career. This transaction, which the Italian +Government wisely refrained from publishing, was announced by the +Germans for reasons of their own. The impression produced by this +display of eclectic affinities so pronounced that even the world's +most ruthless war could not impair them was considerable. And it would +have been heightened if the alleged and credible fact had also been +divulged that the diplomatic instrument was ratified when Italy had +already decided upon war with Austria-Hungary. Between Italy and +Germany stands a bridge which both peoples are resolved to keep intact +at all costs. Against the facts it is useless to argue. + +The struggle between Germany and Italy, therefore, should it ever +break out, would differ not merely in degree, but also, one may take +it, in kind, from the lawless and ruthless savagery which +characterizes the warfare of the Teutons against the Entente Powers. A +civilizing mute would deaden the resonance of bestial passion; and +even private property--in especial that of Germany--would be safe from +confiscation and wanton destruction, and when peace is restored the +rich mercury mines of Italy will again belong to the Kaiser and his +advisers. Last summer[30] a series of private meetings was held for +three days running in Switzerland, at which Germans of high standing +took part, for the purpose of dealing with German capital in Italy and +safeguarding it during the war. At one of the sittings it was computed +that about two milliards of francs belonging to German subjects are +buried in Italian undertakings or in house or landed property. + + [30] 1915. + +In November 1915 the Italian Government publicly applied one of the +provisions of the secret treaty in favour of Germany. At that moment +it was deemed necessary to commandeer German ships in Italian ports +for the service of the navy and the mercantile marine. Had it been a +question of Austrian vessels they would have been seized and utilized +without any such precautions. In virtue of Sec.4 of the Treaty the +Italian authorities undertook to pay a monthly sum to the German +owners for the use of their steamers. That clause lays it down that +the two contracting states shall respect the enactment made by the +concluding section of Article VI of the Hague Convention concerning +the treatment of enemy merchant vessels. + +This treaty, then, is no mere scrap of paper. It is a strong bridge +spanning the chasm between Italo-German friendship in the past and +Italo-German friendship after the war. To take due note of this and of +like symptoms of the coming readjustment of political and economic +forces is one of the primary duties of Entente statesmanship which one +piously hopes are being efficiently discharged. + + + + +CHAPTER V + +GERMANY AND RUSSIA + + +Turning to our other ally, Russia, we find that she underwent a course +of treatment similar to that which well-nigh prussianized Italy. In +the Tsardom the task was especially easy owing largely to the +advantages offered to Teutonic immigrants from the days of yore, to +the German-speaking inhabitants of the Baltic provinces, to the +proselytizing German schools which flourish in Petrograd, Moscow, +Odessa, Kieff, Saratoff, Simbirsk, Tiflis, Warsaw and other centres, +to German colonies scattered over Russia and to religious sects. +During the Manchurian campaign the Commercial Treaty drafted in +Berlin, and at first denounced by Count Witte as ruinous to his +country, was agreed to and signed.[31] It was Hobson's choice. After +that the empire, which had already been a favourite and fruitful field +for Germany's experiments, became one of the most copious sources of +her national prosperity. Commercial push and political espionage were +so thoroughly fused that no line of demarcation remained visible. + + [31] In June 1904. + +Russia's losses were proportionate and at the time were computed at +35,000,000 marks a year. In the Tsardom the imposition of this tribute +was resented. By the Teutons their economic victory was followed by +political influence. Their agents and spies abounded everywhere. Time +passed, and as relations between the two empires grew tenser, the +danger defined itself in sharper outline to the eyes of Russian +statesmen, who resolved, however, to postpone remedial measures until +the day should come for the discussion of the renewal of the +Commercial Treaty. The knowledge that Russia would refuse either to +prolong that one-sided arrangement or to make another like it, and +that the consequences of this refusal would be disastrous to Germany's +economic and financial position, stimulated German statesmen to bring +matters to a head before Russia could back her recalcitrance with a +reorganized army, and was one of the contributory causes of the +European struggle. + +Since then the war has flashed a brilliant light on the dark places of +German intrigue, and some of the sights revealed are hardly credible. +Whithersoever one turns one is confronted with the same striking +phenomenon; the preponderant influence wielded in almost every walk of +life, private and public, by institutions and individuals who in some +open or clandestine way are under German tutelage. In the sphere of +economics this is particularly noticeable. Three-fourths of Russia's +foreign trade was in German hands. Dealings between Russians and +foreigners were transacted chiefly through Germany. Imports and +exports passed principally through German offices, established +throughout the length and breadth of the Tsardom, and commercial +dealings were conducted by merchants in Berlin, Hamburg, Koenigsberg, +Leipzig, and other centres of the Fatherland. Merchandise was carried +in and out of the country by German railway lines, or to German ports +in German bottoms. Even American cotton and Australian wool and tallow +were disposed of in Russia by German middlemen who had them conveyed +in German steamers. On the other hand, Russian corn, sugar, spirits, +were taken to Europe by German transport firms. Intending Russian +emigrants were sought out by agents of German steamship companies, +sent to German ports and accommodated on German steamers. In brief, +whenever the Tsar's subjects had anything to sell to the foreigner or +to buy from him, their first step was to go in search of a German, +through whom the sale or purchase might be effected. + +In domestic economics the same phenomenon was everywhere noticeable. +To a Russian's success in almost any commercial or industrial venture, +the co-operation of the German was an indispensable condition. +Individual enterprise might sow and governmental legislation might +water, but it was German goodwill that vouchsafed the fruit. Wherever +Russian industry showed its head, Germans flocked thither to take the +concern in hand, regulate its growth, and co-ordinate its effects with +those of other industries which were under the patronage of German +banks. It was in vain that Witte and his fellow workers threw up +barriers that seemed impassable to German enterprise. They were turned +with ease and rapidity. Thus in order to protect the textile +industries of Moscow, prohibitive tariffs were levied on textile +fabrics of German origin. But the irrepressible Teuton crossed the +frontier, established his factories in Poland, founded the +German-Jewish town of Lodz, and snapped his fingers at the Government +of the Tsar. And forthwith Lodz assumed all the characteristics of a +German city. German schools flourished there, German agents abounded, +German became the recognized language, and permission was at one time +given to German reserves there, to undergo their periodic term of +military drill for the Kaiser's army! + +Of the three Entente Powers challenged by Germany in 1914, Russia was +therefore by far the worst equipped for the unwonted effort which the +European War demanded of each. For her liberty of action, and, in some +cases, even her liberty of choice, was hampered by the financial, +economic, and political network which Germany had slowly and almost +imperceptibly woven over the entire population. In the fine meshes of +this net several organs of national life were caught, immobilized and +connected with the Fatherland. And it was not until they strove to +move and discharge their functions on behalf of the Russian nation +that they became fully conscious of their plight. German intrigue and +subterranean scheming, under the mask of sympathy--now for the +autocracy, now for socialism--had effected far-reaching changes in the +Empire, which few even among observant politicians appear to have +realized. These innovations were embodied in the thraldom of Russian +banks to German financial institutions; in the splendid organization +which kept old German colonies that were scattered over the Empire in +touch with each other, and co-ordinated their action; in the eloquent +Russian advocates and influential dignitaries who contributed to the +furtherance of German ideas and interests and swayed the policy of +the State; and in the dependence of the great Russian Empire on its +enemy for munitions, and almost every other technical necessary of +war. + +From the days of the great Peter this Teuton influence had been +creeping imperceptibly over the Slav race like some cancerous +soul-growth. It infused a subtle poison in the State organism, the +most appalling effects of which are only now assuming visible shape. +Two palace revolutions were brought about by a national reaction +against the predominance of this foreign influence, which was resented +by the people not merely because it was alien, but largely also +because of its unscrupulous and ruthless character. Some of the most +atrocious cruelties which students of Russian history associate with +court and political life in the Tsardom, during the best part of two +centuries, had their sources in the sheer malignity of Teuton +Ministers who spoke and acted in the name of the autocrat of the +moment. It is characteristic that the Minister Muennich, in the school +for officers which he founded in Petersburg, had Russian history +eliminated from the programme as superfluous, German history being +allowed to remain; and that out of 255 students, only eighteen studied +the Russian language, whereas 237 applied themselves to German. The +first Sovereign to rebel against this Teuton supremacy in his Empire +was the late Alexander III., who made no secret of his profound +dislike for German ways. But as the Russian proverb has it, "one man +in the field, is not a soldier." Hercules, to cleanse the Augean +stables, had need of the water of a river, and the anti-German Tsar +could not hope to make headway without the co-operation of his army of +officials, who themselves were permeated with the Teutonic spirit. And +as passive resistance was their attitude, his purging scheme was +abortive. As a matter of cool calculation, the only hope of freeing +Russia from the meshes of the German net was a war between the two +peoples. And all radical legislation had therefore to be postponed. + +In the meanwhile the Germans, having organized and primed their +agents, have been teutonizing Russia cunningly and effectively. With +the precious assistance of their own kith and kin settled in the +Baltic provinces and elsewhere, they employed the never-failing +expedient of taking an active and, when possible, a leading part in +domestic Russian politics, and invariably on both sides. At the Court +they have always been well represented, and in the ranks of the +inarticulate and Parliamentary Opposition they have also been playing +a noteworthy part. In factories and other industrial and commercial +institutions they arranged strikes, called indignation meetings and +hatched conspiracies at critical junctures when it was to Germany's +interest that Russia's attention should be riveted upon home affairs. +No Parliamentary Bill could be privately drafted, no railway scheme +could be secretly discussed, no Ministerial measure could be +canvassed; nay, seldom could a confidential report be drawn up to the +Emperor himself without the knowledge of the Berlin authorities and +the occasional intervention of their agents in Petrograd. It is +interesting to note that in 1914 a secret memorandum of a highly +confidential character, from a statesman to the Tsar, found its way +to Berlin soon after it had been presented to the monarch and had a +certain influence on the decisions which led to the war. + +The work of economic interpenetration carried on under the aegis of +such powerful patrons and resourceful coadjutors was greatly +facilitated by the German colonies scattered over Russia for +generations. Many of these foreigners had been invited by Catherine +II., receiving large grants of land and various privileges which +enabled them to flourish at the expense of the native population, on +which they looked down with open contempt. + +At that time the extent of free land was considerable in Bessarabia, +Volhynia, and the provinces of Kherson, Ekaterinoslav, Saratoff and +Samara, where down to the year 1915 entire cantons were inhabited by +Germans. In the Novouzensky canton, for example, they constituted 40 +per cent. of the population, in that of Berdyansk 17 per cent. and in +the Akkerman canton 14 per cent. The inducements which had been held +out to them to settle in these fertile districts were irresistible. +Each colonist received fifty dessiatines of land,[32] extensive +pastures for cattle, grants for the journey and the cost of stocking +his farm, absolute immunity from all taxes, rates and military +service, and complete local autonomy apart from that of the Russian +community. + + [32] About 107 acres. + +The Germans whom these boons attracted were of two categories: +sectarians (Menonites), who eschewed military service on religious +grounds; and ne'er-do-wells, who objected to the restraints of law and +justice in the Fatherland; besides a considerable percentage of +tramps. Most of the men of the second category fared as badly in their +adopted country as they had in their native land. They gave themselves +up to intemperance and kindred vices, and their descendants still lead +a hand-to-mouth existence in the Tsardom which their privileges alone +could not better. The sectarians, on the other hand, formed a compact +co-operative body, and by dint of persevering industry and shrewdness, +made the most of their favoured position and prospered. With their +common savings they purchased such vast tracts of land from the +neighbouring gentry that in time the Russian population was +constrained to emigrate to Siberia and other distant parts of the +Empire. And when the present conflict was unchained they were in +possession of an area of fertile land bigger than Pomerania, which is +one of the largest provinces of Prussia. In the Volga country alone +they owned 879,420 dessiatines, or, say, 1,884,471 acres! In the south +of Russia there are 519 German settlements, and the area they occupy +is estimated at more than 31,252 square versts.[33] And the land of +the country gentry in the neighbouring districts was fast passing into +their hands.[34] They have their own local government, their banks +which help them to acquire Russian land, their insurance companies and +their schools. In short, they were a compact little State within the +Tsardom. + + [33] One square verst is equal to 0.44 square mile. + + [34] Cf. _Novoye Vremya_, October 5, 1914. + +The sectarians still hold aloof from the native population. Indeed, +almost the only relations in which they stand to Russians are those +of masters and agricultural labourers. They hire Russian peasants to +till their land and they compel them to work hard for small wages. +Many of these colonies have the appearance of little German towns. +They have added industrial pursuits to agricultural, possess flour +mills, timber mills, and plough their farms with German implements. +They are aggressively German in sentiment, language, character and +Kultur. + +That in brief is the history of one type of German colonization in the +Tsardom. There is another at which it may not be amiss to cast a +glance. It is of recent date and consists of German elements already +resident in the Tsardom. It is a monument of Teuton audacity and Slav +forbearance. One might ransack the history of European nations without +finding another such instance of downright effrontery and disloyalty +on the part of a privileged section of the community, and of +easy-going toleration on the part of the State. The German elements of +the provinces of Kurland and Livland, subjects of the Tsar though they +are, resolved after the abortive revolution of 1906 to raise a living +wall against the rising tide of Russian influence. And as is the wont +of the Teuton throughout the world, they employed Russia's men and +Russia's money to achieve their anti-Russian object. This object was +to attract some twenty thousand Germans to the province, provide them +with farms on easy terms, and look to time, the industry of the men, +the fecundity of the women and the teachings of the schools to create +a new German State in that part of the Russian Empire. It was part of +the functions of these colonists, we are frankly told by their +historiographer,[35] "to serve, even as armed defenders" against the +Russians! In no other country on the globe is such a scheme +conceivable. + + [35] His name is Dr. Fritz Wertheimer. His writings are to be + found in various periodicals. The essay from which these data + are taken was published in the _Frankfurter Zeitung_, January + 8, 1916. + +The undertaking was organized and carried out by two brothers, +Broedrich by name, in one of whom the Tsar's Government placed implicit +confidence and evinced it by appointing him to be chief of the police +in the canton of Goldingen. In this post of trust the German leader +was able to further the anti-Russian cause materially. And he utilized +his opportunities to the utmost for the purpose during the five years +of his tenure of office. He himself travelled in search of suitable +German colonists and had numerous agents on the look-out for such. He +finally got about 13,000 to settle in Kurland and 7000 in Livland. The +Kurlandische Kreditverein advanced the necessary capital as mortgagee +of the land, and within five or six years many of the colonists had +already paid off their debts, sold their farms to other Germans and +bought untilled land in the neighbourhood for themselves. The school +was responsible for the required standard of German patriotism. The +success of the experiment exceeded the highest expectations, and +to-day the man of confidence of the Tsar's Government, Karl Robert +Broedrich, is become chief of the local administration under Wilhelm +II., and deservedly enjoys the confidence of the Kaiser's Ministers. + +This type of German invasion in Russia, especially in recent years, +was carried out with a supreme disdain of the laws of the Empire +which is equally characteristic of those who display and those who +tolerate it. In virtue of a law inscribed in the Statute Book on 14/26 +March 1887, foreigners are not permitted to purchase or own land +outside the cities in the provinces of Kurland and Livland, whereas in +Esthland there is no such prohibition. Yet in Esthland only 6396 +dessiatines belong to Germans, whereas in the two provinces whence +they are absolutely excluded Germans possess 36,852 dessiatines and +6396 dessiatines respectively! In the territory of the Don Cossacks no +foreigner may possess land under any circumstance, yet the Germans own +there 3700 dessiatines. Again, in the provinces of Podolia and +Volhynia, where, for State reasons, the ownership of land is allowed +only to Russians, Germans purchased and own 63,831 dessiatines in the +latter province and 12,475 in the former. Altogether the amount of +Russian territory which passed into the hands of the Teutons is +enormous. In July 1915, when the inventory was not yet completed, the +area inscribed had reached the total of 2,450,000 dessiatines or about +5,250,000 acres.[36] "This figure--" we are assured--"is still far +from complete, inasmuch as a large number of data from various +provinces have not been included in it, and there are no entries at +all for the three provinces of the kingdom of Poland where military +operations are going on and where unhappily the presence of German +colonists has been utilized by the German General Staff."[37] + + [36] _Novoye Vremya_, July 2, 1915. + + [37] By a law sanctioned by the Tsar, in February 1915, the + German Colonists of Southern and Western Russia were obliged + to sell their land to Russian subjects, and they received ten + months' grace for the purpose. + +In Poland there were well over 500,000 German colonists, besides a +large number of new-comers, whose unwritten "privileges" included, as +we saw, occasional permission to their young men liable to serve a few +weeks annually in the ranks of the German army to discharge that duty +under German officers in Russian Poland! In the Ukraine and the most +fertile districts of the Volga basin hundreds of thousands of Germans +lived, throve, and upheld the traditions as well as the language of +the Fatherland, under the eyes of tolerant local authorities. + +Hard by old Novgorod, the once famous Russian republic and cradle of +the Russian State, a number of German colonists settled some 150 years +ago. The population of two of these settlements numbers several +thousand souls, descendants of the original settlers, in the fourth +and fifth generation. They had had time enough, one would think, +during that century-and-a-half to assimilate Russian ways and to +acquire a thorough knowledge of the Russian tongue. Well, these +colonists do not speak the language of the country in which they and +their forbears have been living for over 150 years! They still +consider themselves German, and if you ask them who their sovereign is +they answer unhesitatingly--Kaiser Wilhelm! During Russia's recent +military reverses, which threatened for a time to culminate in the +capture of Riga, and possibly of Petrograd as well, these parasites in +the body politic of Russia displayed their joy in various unseemly +ways, which aroused the indignation of their Slav neighbours. In one +of their schools the Russian visiting authorities were received with +demonstrations of hostility. It is usual for the portrait of the +Russian Tsar to be set up in every school in the Empire. In one of +these educational establishments it was discovered in the lavatory +with the eyes gouged out. + +Long before this war Berlin had become alive to the importance of +these colonies as factors in the work of pacific interpenetration and +political propaganda. Wandering teachers from the Fatherland were +accordingly sent among them to link them up with their brethren at +home, and fan the embers of patriotism which long residence in the +Tsardom had not quenched. Little by little, the political fruits of +these apostolic labours began to show themselves: the colonists, whose +main preoccupation had been to occupy the most fertile soil in the +district, began to take over the approaches to Russia's strategic +plans, and to display an absorbing interest in Russian politics. +Several Zemstvos fell into their hands, and were practically +controlled by them, and they contrived to gain considerable influence +in the elections to the Duma. + +The chance of a useful part for these German colonies to perform +having thus unexpectedly arisen on the horizon, they seized it with +promptitude and utilized it with the thoroughness that characterizes +their race. The numbers prosperity, and influence of the colonies grew +rapidly. Land that had belonged to the Russian peasantry was taken +over by the foreign parasites, and while the Tsar's Minister, were +toiling and moiling to transport hundreds of thousands of Russian +husbandmen and their families in search of land beyond the Ural +Mountains to the virgin forests of Eastern Siberia, there in the very +heart of European Russia were hundreds of thousands of intruders, +who, with the help of their German Colonial banks, were acquiring +additional tracts of land from which their native owners had been +ousted. + +I pointed out this anomaly over and over again, and long before the +war I described it in review articles. The well-known German +Professor, Hans Delbrueck, replied shortly afterwards, in the +_Contemporary Review_,[38] denying point-blank the truth of my +statements, which were drawn from official sources, and confirmed by +the evidence of my senses. For I had visited several of the colonies +in question. Besides these German settlements, there had also been a +number of German industrial and commercial establishments in the +Empire which, at first nowise harmful, were afterwards taken in hand +by emissaries from Berlin, linked up together, affiliated to one or +other of the great financial houses of Germany, and transformed into +redoubtable instruments of Teuton domination. Capital was subscribed, +syndicates were formed, railway-building and electro-technical +industries were organized, Russia's railways policy modified, and +metallurgical works were monopolized by the Germans. Here again +financial institutions discharged the functions of motive power. At +the beginning, about thirty million roubles were subscribed for the +creation of banks, and by dint of push, importunity, secret influence +and intrigue, these institutions received on deposit the savings of +the Russian peasant, merchant, landowner, and official, which finally +mounted up to several hundreds of millions. With this money they were +enabled to control the markets and constrain Russian institutions and +individuals to bow to their will. + + [38] Cf. _Contemporary Review_, February 1911. + +Contracts in Russia were appropriately drafted in the German language, +being directed to the promotion of German interests. Incipient and +even long-established Russian firms were either killed by unfair +competition or compelled to enter the syndicates and forego their +national character. Inventions and new appliances were tested, +plagiarized, and employed in the service of the Fatherland. And while +preparing for the war which was to set Germany above the +nations--_Deutschland ueber Alles_--these syndicates followed the +policy dictated from Berlin, sowed discord between Russian firms and +various State departments, organized strikes and paid the strikers in +competing establishments, and thus deprived the Russian State of +industrial organs on which it would necessarily have to rely in +war-time. To give but one example of this cleverly devised attack, the +cotton industry of the Tsardom was in the hands of the Germans when +war was declared. Another of the most important groups of Russian +industries is that of naphtha. When this precious liquid is dear, many +of the lesser works have to close; when it is cheap, even small +industrial enterprises are able to go on working. By way of obtaining +complete control of this vital element of Russia's industrial life, +the Deutsche Bank went to work to form a syndicate, had a number of +private wells bought up, united them in one, acquired numerous shares +in Russian oil companies, and had the manager of another German +bank--the well-known Disconto Gesellschaft--made a member of the Board +of the Russian Nobel Company. + +One of the results of this ingenious deal was a sharp rise in the +prices of all the products and some of the by-products of naphtha. The +increase continued at an alarming rate, filling the pockets of the +German shareholders, whose syndicates received the oil at cost price +for their own consumption, while Russian firms were forced to acquire +it at the market value or to shut down their works. Amongst the worst +sufferers from these anti-Russian tactics were the steam-navigation +companies of the Volga, which had jealously warded off all attempts to +germanize them. + +In conditions as restrictive as these, it is well-nigh impossible for +Russian industry to hold its own, much less prosper and grow. And only +the most vigorous and best-organized enterprises in the Empire, like +that of the Morozoffs in Moscow, managed to pursue their way +unscathed. In Russian Poland, where textile industries flourished, and +the total annual production was valued at 294,000,000 roubles, over +one-third of these industries belonged to the Germans, whose yearly +output amounted to more than one-half of the grand total, _i.e._, to +150,000,000 roubles.[39] In all these industrial and commercial +campaigns the German prime movers had carried out their operations +more or less openly. But where interests affecting the defences of the +Empire were concerned, caution was the first condition of success, +and, as usual, the Teutons proved supple and adaptable. By way of +levying an attack against the shipbuilding industry, they pushed shaky +Russian concerns into the foreground, while studiously keeping +themselves out of view. Thus in one case new Russian banks were +founded, and old ones in a state of decay were revived by means of +German capital and encouraged to form a syndicate with the +Nikolayeffsky shipbuilding works and certain foreign banks. An +official inquiry, presided over by Senator Neidhardt, lately revealed +the significant fact that each firm of this syndicate had bound itself +to demand identical prices for the construction of Russian ships, and +under no circumstances to abate an iota of the demand. And it was +further agreed that these prices _should be so calculated as to yield +to the members of the syndicate one hundred per cent. profit_. + + [39] Cf. Duma debates of August 1914. + +This allegation is not a mere inference, nor a rumour. It is an +established fact. Neither is the proof circumstantial; it consists of +the original agreement in writing signed by the authorized +representatives of the institutions concerned. The data were laid +before the members of the Russian Duma by A. N. Khvostoff.[40] Thus +the Russian peasant is taxed for the creation of a fleet, and the Duma +votes an initial credit of, say, 500,000,000 roubles for the purpose. +And if the shipbuilding companies and their financial bankers were +honest the aim could be achieved. But in the circumstances what it +comes to is that the nation must pay 500,000,000 more, in order to get +what it wants. And this tax of a hundred per cent. is levied by German +parasites on the Russian people. One might scrutinize the history of +corruption in every country of Europe without finding anything to beat +this Teutonic device, which at the same time gratified the cupidity of +the money-makers and dealt a stunning blow at the Russian State. Half +of the shares of the celebrated Putiloff munitions factory are said to +have belonged to the Austrian Skoda Works. + + [40] Cf. _Novoye Vremya_, August 17, 1915. + +At the outset of the present war, when Russia's needs were growing +greater and more pressing, the works controlled by Germans and +Germany's agents diminished their output steadily. In lieu of turning +out, say, 30,000 poods of iron they would produce only 5,000, and +offer instead of the remainder verbal explanations to the effect that +lack of fuel or damage to the machinery had caused the diminution. +Again, one of these ubiquitous banks buys a large amount of corn or +sugar, but instead of having it conveyed to the districts suffering +from a dearth of that commodity, deposits it in a safe place and +waits. In the meantime prices go up until they reach the prohibition +level. Then the bank sells its stores in small quantities. The people +suffer, murmur, and blame the Government. Nor is it only the average +man who thus complains. In the Duma the authorities have been severely +blamed for leaving the population to the mercy of those money-grubbers +whom German capital and Russian tribute are making rich. "Averse to go +to the root of the matter," one Deputy complained, "the Government +punishes a woman who, on the market sells a herring five copecks +dearer than the current price, yet at the same time it permits the +Governors to promulgate their own arbitrary laws regulating imports +and exports from their own provinces. In this way Russia is split up +into sixty different regions, each one of which pursues its own policy +unchecked." + +The importance of the role played by the banks financed by German +capital in Russia can hardly be overstated. They advance money on the +crops and take railway and steamship invoices as guarantees--they are +centres of information respecting everybody who resides and everything +that goes on in the district and the province. I write with personal +knowledge of their working, for I watched it at close quarters in the +Volga district and the Caucasus with the assistance of an experienced +bank manager. Their political influence can be far-reaching, and the +services which they are enabled to render to the Fatherland are +appreciable. And they rendered them willingly. As extenders of +Germany's economic power in the Empire they merited uncommonly well of +their own kindred. Thus of Russia's total imports in the year 1910, +which were valued at 953,000,000 roubles, Germany alone contributed +goods computed at 440,000,000. These consisted mainly of raw cotton, +machinery, prepared skins, chemical products, and wool. + +How steadily our rivals kept ousting the British out of Russian +markets by those means may be gathered from the following comparative +tables. The percentage of Russia's requirements supplied by the two +competing nations varied, during the fifteen years between 1898 and +1913, as follows-- + +_Year._ _Germany supplied._ _Britain supplied._ + +1898-1902 34.6 per cent. 18.6 per cent. +1903-1907 37.2 " 14.8 " +1908-1910 41.6 " 13.4 " +1911 45.4 " 12.2 " +1912 47.5 " 12.6 " +1913 49.6 " 13.3 " + +In the year 1901 Germany supplied 31 per cent. of the total value of +Russia's imports; in 1905 her contribution was 42 per cent.; and the +increase went steadily forward, reaching over 50 per cent. in the year +1913. If we add to this the net profits of German industrial and +commercial undertakings in the Russian Empire, we may form a notion of +the appropriateness of the comparison which likened the Tsardom to a +vast German colony. The entire economic system of the country was +rapidly approaching the colonial type. And to these economic results +one should add the political. + +It is fair to assume that at the outset the main motive of this +industrial invasion was the quest of commercial profit. Subconsciously +political objects may have been vaguely present to the minds of these +pioneers, as indeed they have ever been to the various categories of +German emigrants in every land, European and other. But in the first +instance the creation of German industries in Russia was part of a +deliberate plan to elude the heavy tariffs on manufactured goods. It +has been aptly described by an Italian publicist[41] as legal +contraband, and it supplies us with a striking example of German +enterprise and tenacity. It attained its object fully. About +three-fourths of the textile and metallurgical production in the +Tsardom, the entire chemical industry, the breweries, 85 per cent. of +the electrical works and 70 per cent. of gas production were German. +And of the capital invested in private railways no less than +628,000,000 roubles belongs to Germans. Even Russian municipalities +were wont to apply to Germany for their loans, and of the first issues +of thirty-five Russian municipal loans no less than twenty-two were +raised in the Fatherland. + + [41] Virginio Gayda. + +The necessity of waging war against this potent enemy within the gates +intensified Russia's initial difficulties to an extent that can hardly +be realized abroad, and was a constant source of unexpected and +disconcerting obstacles. Some time before the opening of the war, a +feeling of restiveness, an impulse to throw off the German yoke, had +been gradually displaying itself in the Press, in commercial circles, +and in the Duma. These aspirations and strivings were focussed in the +firm resolve of the Russian Government, under M. Kokofftseff, to +refuse to renew the Treaty of Commerce which was enabling Germany to +flood the Empire with her manufactures and to extort a ruinous tribute +from the Russian nation. Two years more and the negotiations on this +burning topic would have been inaugurated, and there is little doubt +in my mind--there was none in the mind of the late Count Witte--that +the upshot of these conversations would have been a Russo-German war. +For there was no other less drastic way of freeing the people from the +domination of German technical industries and capital, and the +consequent absorption of native enterprise. + +When diplomatic relations were broken off, and war was finally +declared, Germany was already the unavowed protectress of Russia. And +when people point, as they frequently do, to the war as the greatest +blunder ever committed by the Wilhelmstrasse since the Fatherland +became one and indivisible, I feel unable to see with them eye to eye. +Seemingly it was indeed an egregious mistake, but so obvious were the +probable consequences which made it appear so that even a German of +the Jingo type would have gladly avoided it had there not been another +and less obvious side to the problem. We are not to forget that in +Berlin it was perfectly well known that Russia was determined to +withdraw from her Teutonic neighbour the series of one-sided +privileges accorded to her by the then existing Treaty of Commerce, +and that this determination would have been persisted in, even at the +risk of war. And for war the year 1914 appeared to be far more +auspicious to the German than any subsequent date. + +Handicapped by these foreign parasites who were systematically +deadening the force of its arm, the Russian nation stood its ground +and Germany drew the sword. + +Improvisation--the worst possible form of energy in a war crisis--was +now the only resource left to the Tsar's Ministers. And the financial +problems had first of all to be faced. In this, as in other spheres, +the country was bound by and to Germany, so that the task may fairly +be characterized as one of the most arduous that was ever tackled by +the Finance Minister of any country--even if we include the +resourceful Calonne. And M. Bark, who had recently come into office, +was new not only to the work, but also to the politics of finance in +general. Happily, his predecessor, who, whatever his critics may +advance to the contrary, was one of the most careful stewards the +Empire has ever possessed, had accumulated in the Imperial Bank a gold +reserve of over 1,603,000,000 roubles, besides a deposit abroad of +140,720,000 roubles. Incidentally it may be noted that no other bank +in the world has ever disposed of such a vast gold reserve. + +Although one of the richest countries in Europe, Russia's wealth is +still under the earth, and therefore merely potential. Her burden of +debt was heavy. For at the outbreak of the war the disturbing effects +of the Manchurian campaign and its domestic sequel, which had cost the +country 3,016,000,000 roubles, had not yet been wholly shaken off. +And, unlike her enemy, Russia had no special war fund to draw upon. As +the national industries were unable to furnish the necessary supplies +to the army, large orders had to be placed abroad and paid for in +gold. At the same moment Russia's export trade practically ceased, and +together with it the one means of appreciably easing the strain. The +issue of paper money in various forms was increased, loans were +raised, private capital was withdrawn from the country, various less +abundant sources of public revenue vanished, and the favourable +balance of trade dropped from 442,000,000 roubles to 85,500,000. +Germany, on the other hand, possessed her war fund, in addition to +which she had levied a property tax of a milliard marks a year before +the outbreak of hostilities; she further drew in enormous sums in gold +from circulation, and generally mobilized her finances systematically. + +But Russia was compelled to improvise, to make bricks without straw. +Her war on a front of two thousand versts long had to be waged with +whatever materials happened to be available. Japan--who, I have little +doubt, will be found at the close of the great struggle to have +benefited largely by her pains--exerted herself to provide munitions +for her new friend and ally. The United States, Great Britain and +France also contributed their quota. For many of these orders placed +abroad gold had to be exported, and as Russia has no other natural way +of importing gold but by selling corn, which there were no means of +transporting, a sensible depreciation of the rouble resulted. Great +Britain and France have also had to make heavy purchases abroad for +their military needs, but these two countries can still export wares +extensively and keep the payments in gold within certain limits. Even +Italy receives a noteworthy part of her annual revenue in the shape of +emigrants' remittances from abroad. But once Russia's gates were +closed and her corn had to remain in the granaries, elevators, or at +railway stations, the shortage in her revenue became absolute. During +the first three months of the year 1915 the value of Russian exports +over the Finnish frontier and the Caucasian coast of the Black Sea was +only 23,000,000 roubles, showing a falling off of about 93 per cent., +as compared with the worth of the produce exported during the +corresponding three months of the preceding year. + +It is a curious fact that part of this reduced trade continued to be +carried on with Germany for months after the war had begun. A Russian +publicist has remarked that at the opening of the campaign the voice +of the nation was heard saying: "Corn we have in plenty, and +vegetables and salt. It is we who feed Europe. Germany will therefore +starve without our corn. Our armies may retreat, but our corn will go +with them; and the more the Germans advance into Russia, the further +they are away from their bread." And in this the average Russian saw a +pledge of victory. But before six months had lapsed, the everyday man +grew indignant. For he learned that his corn was being conveyed +through Finland and Sweden into Germany, and in such vast quantities +as had never before been heard of. Here is a street scene illustrative +of this traffic and the feelings it aroused. A long string of carts +laden with flour blocks in one of the Petrograd streets leading to a +bridge over the Neva; a General walking with his wife stops one of the +drivers and asks: "Wherever are you taking the flour to?" "Where do +you suppose? Sure we're taking it to the Germans. We have to feed the +creatures. They are a bit faint." "There you see!" exclaimed the +General to his wife; "didn't I tell you? And every morning without +fail the same long line of carts blocks the streets while our corn is +being taken to the Germans!"[42] It is to be feared that this commerce +has not yet wholly ceased. For the Russians, like ourselves, are +considerate of the Germans. + + [42] Cf. _Novoye Vremya_, February 24, 1915. + +That that story of trading with the enemy is no idle anecdote is +evident from the circumstance, based on official Russian statistics, +that during ten months from August to May, while the war was being +waged relentlessly between the two empires, Russia bought from Germany +no less than 36,000,000 roubles' worth of manufactures. How much the +Central Empires purchased from Russia, I am unable to say. That +commerce is one of the almost inevitable consequences of improvisation +and one of the most sinister. Some months after the outbreak of the +war the Imperial Government levied a duty of a hundred per cent. on +all commodities coming from Germany, Austria-Hungary, and Turkey. That +was assumed to be a prohibitive tariff. But it failed to keep out +imports from the Fatherland. In the one month of April 1915, Germany +sent 3,000,000 roubles' worth of manufactured goods into Russia, and +in May 2,500,000 roubles' worth. And the Allied Press was then +descanting on the stagnation in German trade and the starvation of the +German people. The explanation of this anomaly lies in the unforeseen +and enormous scarcity and rise of prices in the home markets. Some +metal wares--for instance, various kinds of instruments and of wire +appliances, etc.--are not to be had in Russia for love or money, +consequently a hundred per cent. duty is but a heavy tax paid by the +consumer, not an effective prohibition.[43] Since then, I am assured, +the Government has adopted stringent measures which some people +believe to have put an end to that form of trading with the enemy. + + [43] Cf. _Utro Rossiyi_, August 28, 1915. + +It is hard for foreigners to realize the plight to which Russia has +been reduced by the closing of her gates. As the Nile waters were the +source of Egypt's prosperity, so the abundant Russian harvests +constitute the life-giving ichor which flows in the veins of the +Russian nation. Without superfluous corn for exportation, the State +would be unable to meet its obligations, maintain its solvency, or +provide the motive power of progress. The exportation of agricultural +produce was the fountain head not only of Russia's material +well-being, but of her moral and cultural evolution: everything, in a +word, was dependent upon plentiful harvests and extensive sales of +cereals abroad. And, suddenly, the gates were closed, the corn was +stored, and the nation left without its revenue. Nobody but a Russian, +or one who has lived long in the country, can realize fully all that +this tremendous blow connotes. Parenthetically, it may be remarked +that it adds a motive, and one of the most potent, to those which +inspire the heroic sacrifices of the people, quickening the flame of +devotion to their Allied cause. Russia is now literally fighting for +her own liberty, for escape from the iron circle that shuts her off +from the sea, and isolates her from the western world in which it is +her ambition and her mission to play a helpful part. + +One needs no further explanation why the Russian Government put +pressure upon M. Delcasse and Sir Edward Grey to open the Dardanelles +route for the Russian corn. Neither is it to be wondered at that while +the Allied Forces in Gallipoli were still grappling with the Turks, +the Tsar's Ministers should have thrust into the foreground the +question of Constantinople and the Straits, and insisted upon an +immediate pragmatic settlement. True, that was not statesmanship; it +was anything but political wisdom; but at any rate it was human on the +part of all concerned. If this Titanic struggle, in which Russia is +perhaps the greatest sufferer, is to bring her any palpable and +enduring advantage, this, it was urged, can take but one form--freedom +from the preposterous restraints that bar her way to the sea, and +through the sea to the outside world. This and other pleas were +powerful; but for this very reason and for the purpose of realizing +her natural striving I personally would have temporarily negatived the +Russian proposal and left nothing undone to ensure its withdrawal. For +if I were asked to point to the efficient cause of the Allies' present +lamentable plight in the Near East, I should single out this premature +arrangement and its necessary consequences. For Roumania and Bulgaria +were at the moment as bitterly opposed to Russia's overlordship in the +Dardanelles and her possession of Constantinople as were France and +Great Britain in the days of yore. And they embodied their opposition +in acts. + + + + +CHAPTER VI + +THE STATESMANSHIP OF THE ENTENTE + + +One of the most amazing phenomena of Entente statesmanship during the +present European struggle, is the offhand readiness with which the +Governments of France and Great Britain, yielding to abstract +reasoning founded upon gratuitous assumptions, not only reversed the +policy of centuries but committed themselves to a wholly new departure +which was certain to raise up enemies to the Entente, to render its +task immeasurably more arduous, and to lessen its means of achieving +success. However well Russia deserved of her allies, however +unquestionable her claim to the city of Constantine, no less suitable +a moment could have been selected to press that claim than the spring +of 1915. The only evidence we possess that the British statesmen +primarily responsible for this capital blunder were conscious of the +fateful character of this commitment, is the extreme care they took to +have their responsibility shared by the members of the Opposition, +which at that time was not represented in the Cabinet. But even with +this indication before us, we cannot believe that even now this +premature solution of a secular problem on lines suggested by +transient episodes of a military campaign, has struck the responsible +statesmen in proportion to its specific weight, the depth of its +importance, and the nature of its consequences. To take but one of +these, we find that towards the end of the second year of the +campaign, Turkey is one of the two key-positions of the international +situation. To conclude a separate peace with that Power is become a +pressing, and would also be a feasible, task were it not that this +earmarking of Constantinople for Russia constitutes an impassable +barrier. No Turkish Cabinet would or could conclude a separate peace +and strike up friendship with the nations that are making ready to +deprive the Caliph of his capital. It would be a mistake, however, to +assume that this premature allotment of Constantinople to Russia is +the only obstacle to the conclusion of a separate peace with Turkey. +There are also hindrances of a military nature which would have to be +displaced before any decisive move in this direction could be expected +of the young Turks. + +But it cannot be gainsaid that the most formidable obstacle is that. +Neither can it be questioned that that premature arrangement will, if +the Allies emerge victorious from the ordeal, thrust into the +foreground of practical politics a whole group of problems the most +delicate and dangerous that were ever yet tackled by the inadequately +equipped diplomacy of the Allied Governments. It is then that the +Entente Powers will fully realize the deluge to which they made such +haste to open the sluice-gates in the spring of 1915. And the only way +practicable out of this blind alley would be the spontaneous +abandonment by the Russian Government of the right it possesses, which +however the Allies will certainly never call in question. Whether the +Tsar's Government believes such a sacrifice necessary, and whether, +if they did, they could summon up the courage requisite to make it, +are questions which Russia's loyal allies have neither the right nor +the wish to raise. We will carry out our obligations in the letter and +the spirit. If the Russian people, in the person of their responsible +organ, should renounce for the moment the claims which we have +formally recognized and undertaken to enforce, this decision will have +been come to spontaneously and without pressure or advice from their +allies. + +The extent to which the Teuton had his own way among the easy-going +Russian people is hardly to be realized. It would be certainly +inexplicable in an empire governed on national lines and conscious of +its mission. For unlimited pliancy was the quality which German +importunity evoked on the part of the highest authorities. One of many +examples is worth recording. Among all industrial enterprises the +Russian Government is most sensitive about that of high explosives. +The manufacture of these they had always rigorously reserved for their +own people, on obvious grounds. Well, the moment the Germans resolved +to break down this barrier, they found the means to do it despite the +objection raised by the Russian Press that it would be dangerous to +confide the production of high explosives to foreigners and +superlatively dangerous to confide it to prospective enemies. The +prospective enemy carried the point, and the manufacture of high +explosives was handed over to a German company, which built works for +the purpose near the Russian capital, and had its headquarters and +board of directors in Berlin![44] + + [44] _Novoye Vremya_, June 24, 1915. + +As in Italy, so in the Tsardom, one of the principal levers of Teuton +interpenetration was the regulation of the national trade and +industry. That is to say, these were allowed to subsist and thrive up +to, but not beyond, the point at which they were useful as adjuncts of +German enterprise. And the regulators were principally two: the Treaty +of Commerce extorted from the Tsar's Government during the +embarrassments caused by the Manchurian campaign, and the German +banks, which in the empire paraded as Russian, just as in Italy they +were decked as Italian. Many of those financial institutions were but +branches of German houses, and their methods were identical with those +of the Banca Commerciale: long credits and easy modes of repayment +offered to all those who agreed to deal with German firms, while +discredit, ostracism, and ruin threatened the recalcitrant. And as +Italian money and Italian institutions were employed as instruments of +German interpenetration in foreign countries,[45] so Russian funds and +banks were used as helps to German interpenetration in Belgium and +other lands. + + [45] For example, the Banca Franco-Italiana in Brazil. + +A noteworthy instance of the ingenuity with which this intricate +mechanism was worked came to light shortly before the outbreak of the +war. In Brussels there was a branch of the Petrograd International +Bank which purported to be a purely Russian concern. But once the +Kaiser had sent his ultimatum to the Tsar's Government, the Russian +mask was doffed by the Brussels agency, which forthwith appeared in +its true colours as a potent instrument of germanization in Belgium. +There was found to be almost nothing Russian about the bank but the +name. The staff, the language spoken, the methods of business, the +political sympathies, the aims of the operations were all German. Out +of the forty-three permanent members of the staff, thirty were German +subjects, six Austrians, two German-Swiss, two Belgians, one was a +Dutchman, one Turk, and there was a solitary Russian. The moment Count +Berchtold presented his ultimatum to Serbia this "Russian" bank +refused to change any Russian banknotes on any terms and let it be +understood that they were valueless. A panic on the Belgian market was +the immediate consequence. Russian travellers had to deposit their +jewellery in pawn and pay exorbitant rates of interest on loans. The +bank itself practised a kind of usury, and advanced only sixty per +cent. of the face value of notes issued by the Imperial Bank of +Russia. When the Belgian Government, after the declaration of war, +began to tackle German espionage, this "Russian" bank was found to be +one of the strongholds of the military spies. Certain of the employees +were permanent agents of the German Military Attache, and were at the +same time inscribed as members of the staff of the Deutsche Bank of +Berlin. + +All those well-thought-out and successfully executed schemes may bear +in upon the British people some notion of what is meant by German +organization and co-ordination, and may also help them to gauge the +chances of success, military, diplomatic and economic, on which the +Allies, with their easy-going ways, their hope of somehow "blundering +through," and their lack of combination and of plan--can rely when +pitted against a mighty organism, disposing of the most redoubtable +forces ever created by human science and skill, directed by a single +mind, and served with ascetic self-abnegation and religious ardour by +over a hundred million people. The courage and faith of the Allies in +gazing for years upon this portentous engine of destruction without +making suitable provision for the day when it would be turned against +themselves, will fill future generations with amazement. + +No bare enumeration of details can convey an adequate idea of the +vastness, compactness and potency of the German organization which +kept the Russian Colossus partially paralysed at home, while the +Kaiser's armies were dealing it stunning blows on the battlefield. It +is a revelation which will be followed by a new birth of the whole +political world. The German colonists, the wandering German commercial +travellers who acted as political spies, the various banks, +joint-stock companies, religious sects, journals, reviews, schools, +clubs, Lutheran pastors, and other Teuton agents, were but so many +wheels and springs of the mighty machine which was set in motion and +kept working by the political leaders in Berlin. For all these firms +and enterprises and individuals from the Fatherland scattered over the +length and breadth of the Tsardom were welded together in one vast +organism by far-seeing politicians who canalized every important +current of the nation's life and imparted to it the direction which +German interests required. No enterprise was too vast, no detail too +trivial, for the attention of these moulders of Germany's destinies. + +All those activities, commercial, financial, industrial, +journalistic, religious, political, the German mind combined into a +single idea, the co-ordinate parts of which were studied and +regulated, not by party chiefs, but by qualified experts, who, +although specialists, subjected them to organic treatment. In this +respect the German may be likened to a massive sombre figure who, +surrounded by a crowd of sprightly shadowy nobodies, discoursing with +easy frivolity on grave subjects, is engrossed with the task of +destroying a great part of the frame-work of the world in order to +rebuild it after his own plan. Unfortunately the extraordinary +enlargement of interest which marks the latter-day political +conceptions, and inspires the fateful action of Germany's acknowledged +leaders, breeds in the allied peoples not so much a stern resolve to +tame that revolutionary nation at all costs, as a sentimental longing +for the return of the idyllic past, and an illusive hope that by dint +of mild Christian charity it may yet be brought back. + + + + +CHAPTER VII + +TEUTON POLITICS + + +It is this Teutonic power of looking far ahead, this profundity of +vision, this mingled comprehensiveness and concentration, and the +marked success with which these qualities have hitherto been exercised +to the lasting detriment of the Entente nations which looked on and +naively applauded, that fill the thoughtful student with misgivings +about the future. True, it may not be too late for effective counter +measures. But two conditions are manifestly essential to the +successful application of any remedy: first, that its necessity should +be felt and realized; and, second, that the scrupulosity which at +present hesitates to apply drastic measures should yield to higher +considerations than those of individual delicacy of sentiment and +over-refined humanitarianism. When an individual abuses laws and +restraints which bind his fellow-men, in order to inflict a deadly +injury on them, it is meet that they should free themselves from those +checks in their dealings with him. For example, it may be +theoretically wrong, after the conclusion of the present struggle, for +our people to bear such a grudge against the individual German as +would exclude him from communion and intercourse with the nations of +the Entente. And this principle would seem to apply with greater force +to those Germans who might be willing to abandon their nationality +and identify their aims, interests and strivings with those of the +nation in which they would fain become incorporated. But when we +reflect that almost every German, whatever his calling, how profound +soever his debt of gratitude to a foreign people, considers himself +first and always a member of his own country, works for its interests +to the detriment of all others, and does not scruple to violate moral +laws and social traditions in order to betray his new friends, we may +well ask in virtue of what precept we should abstain from ostracizing +him from the British Empire. His second nationality is so often a mere +mask to enable him to perpetrate black treason, and it is so openly +thus regarded by his own Government, which upholds and solemnly +sanctions the principle, that it would be inexplicable folly on the +part of the British nation to aid and abet its enemies by admitting +them to the freedom of the community without taking effective +precautions against treason. + +And yet there is a large body of men in this country, as in France and +Italy, who condemn the demand for these precautions as un-Christian +and impolitic. Such laxness is the soil in which thrives the upas tree +whose shade has so long darkened the organs of our empire and now +threatens to blight the whole organism. + +An all-important feature in the controversy which has arisen over the +naturalization of German subjects is the utterly amoral view of it +which underlies the attitude of the Kaiser's Government. According to +these authorities, whose utterances and acts are decisive and final, a +German, unlike every other subject, may swear allegiance to two +states, of which one is his Fatherland, without being bound by his +oath to the other. Various reasons, including material interests, may, +it is argued, make it desirable that he should acquire citizenship in +a foreign land; and the Kaiser's Government, for the good of the +empire, recognizes this necessity and facilitates the process by a +law. This law, which was enacted in July 1913, authorizes the born +German subject, having first made known his intention and motive, to +swear allegiance to a foreign state without forfeiting, or intending +to forfeit, the rights or escaping from the duties which flow from his +German citizenship. Now this is a privilege which not even the Pope +has ever claimed the faculty of according. + +From the point of view of international law this double naturalization +is inadmissible. Every individual in the community of nations is the +subject of a certain state, and only of one, and whenever the +interests of that state run counter to those of any other, he is bound +legally as well as morally to promote the former to the best of his +ability and means. The Teuton doctrine and practice are that Germans +may insinuate themselves into a country, and in the guise of loyal +citizens become conversant with its secrets, and then use them to its +hurt. In the light of this law, which was a custom long before it +became a statute, the number of Germans naturalized in various +countries grew amazingly during the past fifteen years. In France, for +example, where there were only 38,000 foreigners naturalized in the +year 1896 and 65,000 in 1901, the figure reached 90,000 in 1906 and +120,000 five years later. And of these, four-fifths were Germans and +Austrians. Many Germans first became Swiss or British subjects in +order the more easily to acquire the rights of Frenchmen. One in +particular, named Wilhelm Hellpern, first became a Belgian, then as +Willy Hellpern a British subject, and finally, with a view to +obtaining a place on the Board of the Societe Francaise de l'Industrie +Chimique, applied for and received naturalization in France. This +"Willy" Hellpern was a representative of the Central Gesellschaft fuer +chemische Industrie.[46] + + [46] Cf. _Hors du Joug allemand_, par Leon Daudet. + +When war was declared in 1914 hundreds of Germans applied for papers +of naturalization in Switzerland, and obtained them from various +little Swiss communes which were in sore want of funds. Spies eager to +place their machinations under the protection of Swiss citizenship +found smooth ways to the desired goal. In the single canton of Zurich +demands for naturalization rose from 260 during the nine months ending +in October 1913,[47] to 732 in the corresponding nine months of 1915. +Several cases of fraud were discovered during this rapid process of +transforming foreign into Swiss citizens: one of the most salient +being that of Friedrich Wilhelm Frank, a German who had taken out his +naturalization papers in England and then decided to shake off his +acquired British citizenship for that of the Helvetian Republic. As +Frank had not been resident in Switzerland during the two years +required by the law of that country he applied and paid for a false +certificate of residence, and in this way achieved his object. But the +trick was finally discovered and the naturalization cancelled. + + [47] The number for the entire year was 350. + +We may protest as vigorously as we will against this infamous +troth-mongering which is destructive of international relations, and +indirectly of social intercourse, but no responsible government can +afford to ignore the necessity of guarding against its consequences. +For it is no ephemeral manifestation of temperament, nor the passing +whim of a political party or a class. The law of double citizenship, +coupled with a plenary indulgence for treason and perjury in the cause +of the Fatherland, is but the solemn consecration of a principle which +was long practised and is warmly approved by the entire German people. +The Berlin Government publicly invoked it during the latter half of +the year 1915, under circumstances which remove doubts on this score. +On one and the same day in August that year all German official and +non-official journals published a notice, which ran as follows: "It is +alleged that in neutral countries, and particularly in the United +States of America, men of German _extraction_" (the word _citizenship_ +is not used, but _extraction_), "are employed as workmen, engineers or +in other capacities in the production of war munitions for our +enemies. All those who thus reinforce the military strength of our +foes, thereby make the prosecution of the war more difficult for +Germany, and not only burden themselves with a heavy load of moral +turpitude, but also expose themselves--and many of them are seemingly +unaware of this--to the operation of the German laws which punish high +treason." + +In other words, subjects of, say the American Republic, who were born +there of German parents or grandparents and never acknowledged any +other government nor possessed the citizenship of any other country, +become guilty of high treason if they dare to avail themselves of the +plenitude of the rights which that citizenship confers. They may not +work for firms which supply the Allies because their fathers, or it +may be only their grandfathers, happened to be Germans. The moral +duties of German subjects still lie heavy on them, and they must +execute the Kaiser's will to-day on pain of being dealt with as +traitors to the Fatherland. + +Monstrous principles and revolting procedure of this kind are +calculated to kindle a blaze of indignation in people who realize +their effects and set value on the boons of civilization or +Christianity. They are among the many new ideas which Kultur has +contributed to the stock of weapons destructive of modern society. One +might term them the asphyxiating gases of German international +politics. In keeping with these teachings and practices were the theft +of foreign passports by the German Government which handed them over +to spies, as in the case of Lody, who was executed in London in the +early part of the war. Thus the binding force of moral and of human +law is dissolved whenever it clashes with German national, military, +or commercial interests. This dogma lies at the roots of Kultur. + +By the time war was declared, Germany had stretched forth her +tentacles into various lands and was draining the life-juices of many +peoples. Her footing in Italy, Russia, Belgium and France was firm. +Observant students of international politics fancied they could +determine the approximate date when, if the then rate of progress were +maintained, Germany's overlordship over Europe would be definitely +established and all armed conflicts on the Continent become +thenceforth meaningless. They were all the more puzzled at what they +set down as the egregious folly of jeopardizing the precious fruits of +forty years' well-sustained labours by precipitating a tremendous +conflict of doubtful issue. But besides the sudden temptation to +utilize a conjuncture of exceptionally favourable promise, the leaders +of the Teutonic nations felt moved to appeal to arms by certain slow, +but steady, currents which threatened to change the situation to +Germany's detriment in the space of another few years. + +With the remoter causes of the Kaiser's fatal resolve, we are not now +concerned. It may suffice to know that they were numerous and that the +trend of their operation had been for a few months unmistakable. Time, +which was working wonders for the Teuton in one direction, was raising +up redoubtable enemies against him in another. For one thing Russia +was becoming transfigured. The dry bones of the nation which the +Germans often declared was good only as ethnic manure had had life and +a soul breathed into them by the great agrarian reform of which the +credit belongs to Witte and Stolypin. The latter statesman in a series +of conversations had in 1906 opened his mind to me on the subject, and +frankly avowed that the Government, having gone astray in its estimate +of the Russian peasants who turned out to be revolutionary and +anarchistic, was resolved to render them conservative by giving them +land and an interest in the maintenance of law and order. That, he +informed me, was the aim and origin of the agrarian law, and I +expounded the theory, its working and its anticipated consequences, +in a series of articles published at the time.[48] + + [48] In the _Daily Telegraph_. + +Down to the year 1861 the Russian serfs had been mostly bound to the +soil. They were emancipated by Alexander II., who ordered each +landowner to make over to the serfs as much of his landed property as +was being actually cultivated by these. Wherever this amount seemed +too extensive for the support of a family it was whittled down and the +residue left with the landlord. Each of the various lots thus +expropriated was given not to an individual, nor to a family, but to +the village community. Each field was cut into as many strips as there +were farms, and each farm had the use of one. Every year the peasants +had to pay a certain sum to the landlord until the land was wholly +redeemed, and liability for these payments, like the possession of the +land, was common. Hence the drunkards and the lazy paid little or +nothing. It was the community which decided when the sowing and when +the reaping should take place. The results of this system were +baneful. And little by little the more enterprising peasants who had +no motive to improve the value of the land which they were allowed for +a time to cultivate, migrated to the towns and joined the growing army +of working men. + +How long this state of things would have continued, if these immediate +consequences had formed the only objection to it, is uncertain. But +the Revolution of 1905-6 rendered it wholly untenable. The peasantry, +on whom the Tsar and the Government counted for support, readily +followed the lead of every anarchist and revolutionary who dangled the +promise of free land before their eyes, and gutted or burned the +manors of the landlords. With no conception of the sacredness, nor, +indeed, of the nature of property, they seized what they could by +force, and were gravely disappointed when it was re-taken from them by +law. Stolypin's scheme, as he himself propounded it to me, was to +enable the peasant to acquire the land he tilled, and not merely the +scattered strips, but a compact farm capable of supporting himself and +his family. And the system of collective liability for payments to the +State was abolished, together with that of collective land-ownership. + +This was in truth a genial reform, and the business-like way in which +it was carried out did credit to the late Minister and the people. +Even now it is far from completed, but already there are about six +million peasant farms cut out and allotted. In European Russia +approximately as many more remain to be apportioned. The effects of +this innovation were rapid and encouraging. The value of the land rose +enormously in consequence of the intenser culture and the increased +yield. Under the old arrangement Russia's harvest of cereals was +barely enough to feed the population inadequately, to supply seed and +to enable a limited amount of produce to be exported. And as this +limited amount was in practice often exceeded, the food supply of the +peasantry was cut down in proportion. At present all this has changed +for the better and changed to a greater extent than the outside world +realizes. One of the consequences of this betterment, coupled with the +decrease of drunkenness, is the greater purchasing power of the +peasant and the growth of his requirements. So beneficial and evident +were the effects of this reform, that some patriotic Russians gladly +saw their Government go to the very extreme of pliancy towards Germany +rather than run the risk of a war and the danger of a break in this +remarkable career of national regeneration. The process was noted and +gauged by the Germans, who awakened to the fact that, in a few years +more, the legend of Ilya Murometz would be exemplified in latter-day +Russia, and a Colossus arise among the nations, which would hinder the +tide of Teutondom from inundating Europe for all time. + +Other considerations of a more pressing character weighed with the +statesmen of the Wilhelmstrasse, whose survey of the international +situation was, at any rate, comprehensive. Renascent Russia, for +example, was, as we saw, resolved to withdraw from the German Empire +the one-sided advantages accorded by the Commercial Treaty. And as +this question would in any case become acute within two years, that +date was one of the time-limits of the European war, and I ventured to +designate it as such to two of the most prominent statesmen of the +Entente in the month of March 1914. They both went so far as to say +that my anticipation was extremely probable.[49] + + [49] Count Witte went farther and fixed the end of 1915 as + the date. + +However this may be, Germany, who works out her destinies by +preventive wars, and therefore never leaves the initiative to her +enemies or rivals, precipitated a conflict which would, she believed, +break out in any case within a couple of years, and for which no more +auspicious moment could be chosen than the end of July 1914, after the +Kiel Canal had been made navigable for her largest battleships and +the harvest ingathered. + +The year and month of the historic event had been fixed by her leaders +a considerable time in advance, as we now know from incontrovertible +evidence. So, too, had the choice of method, which was in harmony with +the usual formula, that Germany is never the apparent aggressor, and +that it is her enemies who must be made to appear the partisans of +preventive war. + +The principle was thus laid down by Bismarck when he altered King +Wilhelm's historic telegram from Ems: "Success essentially depends +upon the impression which the genesis of the war makes on ourselves +and others. It is important that we should be the party attacked."[50] + + [50] _Bismarck: His Reflections and Reminiscences._ + +Finally, the very day was determined--and almost on the very eve it +was changed to the following day. + +In connection with the date and the method I have a curious tale to +unfold which has never yet been recounted in western Europe. The +incident in some respects bears an unmistakable resemblance to the +story of Bismarck's forgery of the Ems telegram and is well worth +relating[51] and remembering. The main features are as follows. + + [51] My authority for the story is the principal observer, + who was also an actor in a part of this subsidiary little + drama: A. I. Markoff, who at that time represented the + semi-official Russian Telegraph Agency, as its head + correspondent in Berlin. He himself told me the story in + Stockholm and authorized me to make it known. + + + + +CHAPTER VIII + +A MACHIAVELLIAN TRICK BY WHICH RUSSIA'S HAND WAS FORCED + + +The world is now aware, although it can hardly be said to realize, how +closely journalism approaches to being a recognized organ of the +Imperial German Government. One of the most influential of the Berlin +journals during the past ten years has been the _Lokal-Anzeiger_. This +paper was founded by Herr Scherl, one of those clever enterprising +business men who have been so numerous, active and successful in the +Fatherland during the past quarter of a century. His journal was a +purely business concern, carried on congruously with the law of supply +and demand and keeping pace with the shifting requirements of the +public and the strongest currents in the Government. It had long +enjoyed the reputation of being a semi-official organ, and it was Herr +Scherl's ambition that it should be formally promoted to that rank. In +February 1914 he sold the paper to a group of four persons, two of +whom were Herr Schorlmeyer and Count T. Winckler, and all four were +members of the political party which looked for light and leading to +the Crown Prince and his military environment. Thus the +_Lokal-Anzeiger_ became the organ of the progressive military party, +which was exerting itself to the utmost to force the pace of the +Government towards the one consummation from which the realization of +Germany's dream of world-power was confidently expected. Among the +privileges accorded to the _Lokal-Anzeiger_ from the date of its +purchase for the behoof of the Crown Prince onward, was that of +publishing official military news before all other papers, and not +later even than the _Militaer-Wochenblatt_. Consequently, it thus +became the most trustworthy source of military news in the Empire. +This fact is worth bearing in mind, for the sake of the light which it +diffuses on what follows. + +War being foreseen and arranged for, much careful thought was bestowed +on the staging of the last act of the diplomatic drama in such a way +as to create abroad an impression favourable to Germany. The scheme +finally hit upon was simple. Russia was to be confronted with a +dilemma which would force her into an attitude that would stir +misgivings even in her friends and drive a wedge between her and her +ally or else would involve her complete withdrawal from the Balkans. +The latter alternative would have contented Germany for the moment, +who would then have dispensed with a breach of the peace. For it would +have enabled the two Central Empires to weld together the Balkan +States and Turkey in a powerful federation under their joint +protectorate, and would not only have simplified Germany's remaining +task, but have supplied her with adequate means of accomplishing it +against Russia and France combined. Great Britain's neutrality was +postulated as a matter of course. + +Congruously with this plan, Russia was from the very outset declared +to be the Power on which alone depended the outcome of the crisis. +Upon her decision hung peace and war. On July 24, telegraphing from +Vienna, I announced this on the highest authority,[52] with a degree +of force and clearness which left no room for doubt as to the aims, +intentions and preliminary accords of the two Central Empires. I +stated that if in the course of the Austro-Serbian quarrel Russia were +to mobilize, Germany would at once answer by general mobilization and +war. For there will, then, I added, be no demobilization but an armed +conflict. Before making that grave announcement, I had had convincing +assurances and proofs that I was setting forth an absolute and +irrevocable decision arrived at by the Central Empires on grounds +wholly alien to the interests and issues which were then engaging the +Austrian and Serbian Governments, and that a bellicose mood had gained +a firm hold on the minds of the statesmen of Berlin and Vienna. Had +that deliberate statement been subjected to adequate instead of the +ordinary partial tests, the full significance of the crisis would have +been realized by the Governments of the Entente. + + [52] On 24th July I received this official information. It + was published on Monday, 27th. + +In the course of the negotiations which were then hastily improvised, +Germany, who strove hard to gain credit for the role of disinterested +peacemaker, gradually revealed herself as the chief protagonist, +whereas Austria was little more than a pawn in the game. Disguising +her eagerness to provoke one of the two desired solutions, Russia's +abandonment of Serbia or her declaration of war, Germany succeeded in +misleading the Governments of France and Britain as to her real +intentions. + +While M. Poincare was in the Russian capital proposing toasts and +drawing roseate forecasts of the future, the German Ambassador in +Paris, von Schoen, was constantly in attendance at the Quai d'Orsay, +endeavouring to impress on the minds of the Acting Minister and the +permanent officials there, the sincerity of the Kaiser's eagerness for +peace and the growing danger of Russia's aggressiveness. "You and we," +he kept saying, "are the only Continental Governments which are aware +of the magnitude of the issues and the imminence of the danger. You +and we perceive the utter folly, the sheer criminality, of plunging +Europe in the horrors of a sanguinary war for the sake of a petty +state governed by regicides and assassins. What interests have you or +we to risk the welfare of our respective nations for the behoof of the +Serbian military party whose dreams of greatness border on mania? No, +it behoves us both to do all that lies in us to calm Russia's passion +and induce her to listen to the promptings of reason and +self-interest. You, with the powerful influence which your friendship +and alliance impart to your counsels, and we by dint of example, ought +to succeed in averting this awful peril." In this tone, Herr von Schoen +delivered his daily exhortations and found some willing listeners. His +specious pleading made a deep and favourable impression, and would +perhaps have led to representations by the French Government +calculated to wound the susceptibilities and perhaps estrange the +sympathies of France's ally at the most critical hour of the alliance, +had it not been for the presence at the Foreign Office of a man whose +eye was sure and whose measurement of forces, political and personal, +was accurate. That man was M. Berthelot. Gauging aright this +insidious appeal to the centrifugal forces of the political mind, he +turned a deaf ear to von Schoen's suasive efforts and kept the ship of +state on its course, without swerving. In this way what seemed to the +Berlin politicians the line of least resistance was adequately +reinforced and a formidable, because crafty, attack repulsed. + +But besides attack, the Germans had also a problem of defence to +engage their attention. And, curiously enough, it appears to have been +particularly knotty in Austria. At that moment Count Berchtold was +Minister of Foreign Affairs in name, but Count Tisza, the Hungarian +Premier, was the man who thought, planned and acted for the Habsburg +Monarchy. He it was who had drawn up the ultimatum to Serbia and made +all requisite arrangements for co-operation with Germany. He was +backed by the Chief of the General Staff, Konrad von Hoetzendorff, +whose eagerness to provide an opportunity for displaying the martial +qualities of the army was proverbial. But there were others in high +places there who had no wish to see the Dual Monarchy drawn into a +European war, and who would gladly have come to an agreement with +Russia on the basis of such a compromise as Serbia's reply to the +ultimatum promised to afford. Whether, as seems very probable, this +current bade fair to gain the upper hand, it is still too soon to +determine with finality. There are certainly many indications that +this was one of the dangers apprehended in Berlin. Russia's moderation +was another. And the interplay of the two might, had Germany held +aloof, have led to a compromise. For this reason Germany did not stand +aloof. + +The date fixed for the German mobilization was July 31. The evidence +for this is to be found in the date printed on the official order +which was posted up in the streets of Berlin, but was crossed out and +replaced by the words "1st of August," in writing, as there was no +time to reprint the text. It had been expected in Berlin that Russia +would have taken a decision by July 30, either mobilizing or knuckling +down. Neither course, however, had been adopted. Thereupon Germany +became nervous and went to work in the following way. + +On Thursday, July 30, at 2.25 p.m. a number of newspaper boys appeared +in the streets of Berlin adjoining the Unter den Linden and called out +lustily: "_Lokal-Anzeiger_ Supplement. Grave News. Mobilization +ordered throughout the Empire." Windows were thrown wide open and +stentorian voices called for the Supplement. The boys were surrounded +by eager groups, who bought up the stock of papers and then eagerly +discussed the event that was about to change and probably to end the +lives of many of the readers. It does not appear that the Supplement +was sold anywhere outside that circumscribed district. Now in that +part of the town was situated Wolff's Press Bureau, where the official +representatives of Havas and the Russian Telegraphic Agency sat and +worked. + +The correspondent of the latter agency, having read the announcement +of the _Lokal-Anzeiger_, which was definitive and admitted of no +doubt, at once telephoned the news to his Ambassador, M. Zverbeieff. +During the conversation that ensued the correspondent was requested by +the officials of the telephone to speak in German, not in Russian. +This was an unusual procedure. The Ambassador could hardly credit the +tidings, so utterly were they at variance with the information which +he possessed. He requested the correspondent to repeat the contents of +the announcement, and then inquired: "Can I, in your opinion, +telegraph it to the Foreign Office?" The answer being an emphatic +affirmative, the Ambassador despatched a message in cypher to this +effect to the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs. For there could be +no doubt about the accuracy of information thus deliberately given to +the public by the journal which possessed a monopoly of military news +and was the organ of the Crown Prince. The Russian correspondent also +forwarded a telegram to the Telegraphic Agency in Petrograd +communicating the fateful tidings. + +Within half an hour the German Ministry of Foreign Affairs telephoned +to Wolff's Bureau to the effect that the report about the mobilization +order was not in harmony with fact, and it also summoned the +_Lokal-Anzeiger_ to issue a contradiction of the news on its own +account. This was duly done, and so rapidly that the second Supplement +was issued at about 3 p.m. The explanation given by the newspaper +staff was that they were expecting an order for general mobilization +and had prepared a special Supplement announcing it. This Supplement +was unfortunately left where the vendors saw it, and thinking that it +was meant for circulation seized on all the copies they could find, +rushed into the streets and sold them. On many grounds, however, this +account is unsatisfactory. Copies of a newspaper supplement containing +such momentous news are not usually left where they can be found, +removed and sold by mere street vendors. Moreover, the date, July 30, +was printed on the supplement, so that it was evidently meant to be +issued, as a matter of fact it was circulated only in a very limited +number of copies and in the streets around Wolff's Bureau, where it +was certain to produce the desired effect. + +Half an hour later the correspondent of the Russian Agency received a +request to call at the General Telegraph Office at once. On his +arrival he was asked to withdraw his two telegrams which the Censor +refused to transmit. To his plea that so far as he knew there was no +censorship in Germany he received the reply that it had just been +instituted and now declined to pass his telegrams. "In that case," he +said, "my consent is of no importance, seeing that the matter is +already decided." Finally, he asked to have his messages returned to +him, but they would consent only to his reading, not to his retaining, +them. + +The Russian Ambassador also despatched an urgent _message en clair_ to +his Government embodying the contradiction communicated by the +Wilhelmstrasse. + +Now, the significant circumstance is that the Ambassador's first +telegram stating that general mobilization had been officially ordered +throughout the German Empire was forwarded with speed and accuracy and +reached the Russian Foreign Minister without delay. And this news was +communicated to the Tsar, who by way of counter-measure issued the +order to mobilize the forces of the Russian Empire. But the +Ambassador's second telegram was held back several hours and did not +reach its destination until the mischief was irremediable. That +curious incident is of a piece with the Bismarck's Ems telegram. + +It is by such devices that the German Government is wont to launch +into war. The mentality whence they spring cannot be discarded in a +year or a generation, nor will any Peace Treaty, however ingeniously +worded, prevent recourse being had to them in the future. For this, +among other reasons, more trustworthy guarantees than scraps of paper +must be sought and found. + + + + +CHAPTER IX + +GERMAN PROPAGANDA IN SCANDINAVIA + + +The same breadth of vision and efficacy of treatment were similarly +rewarded in the Scandinavian countries, where German propaganda, ever +resourceful and many-sided, was facilitated by kinship of race, +language, folklore and literature. Of the three kingdoms Sweden, the +strongest, was also the most impressible owing to the further bond of +fellowship supplied by a common object of distrust--the Russian +empire. Suspicion and dislike of the Tsardom had been long and +successfully inculcated by the German Press, from which Sweden +received her supply of daily news, and also, as is usual in such +cases, by prominent natives who, in obedience to motives to which +history is indifferent, employed their influence to spread suspicion. +Sven Hedin rendered invaluable services in this way to the Kaiser and +the Fatherland, throwing the glamour of his name over a movement of +which the ultimate tendency was national suicide. Under the auspices +of a prussophile minority of Swedish politicians, a few of whom were +supposed to favour the establishment of an absolute monarchy like that +of Prussia, a clever campaign against the Tsardom was inaugurated. +Falsehoods were concocted, imaginary dangers conjured up and described +as real, and sinister Russian designs against the independence of +Sweden and Norway were invoked as motives for energetic action. In +vain the Tsar's Government protested its friendship for Sweden and +disproved the poisonous calumnies circulated by the Germans. + +In the discovery and arrest of a number of Russian military spies, who +were as active in Sweden as in other lands, and whose relations with +the Tsar's Military Attache in Stockholm were said to be proven, these +agitators found the few solid facts that served them as the groundwork +of their fabric of suspicion and calumny. + +The results of this propaganda answered the expectations of its German +and Swedish organizers. Despite the quieting assurances given by the +ex-Premier, the late Karl Staaff and M. Branting, Sweden's two +foremost statesmen, the present population was thoroughly alarmed. +They spontaneously taxed themselves for new warships, insisted that a +non-recurring war-tax identical with that of Germany should be imposed +by the State, and many called for the immediate adhesion of Sweden to +the Triple Alliance. + +One of the fixed points of Russia's policy, the Swedish agitators told +their fellow-countrymen, is the acquisition of an ice-free port which +can be utilized in winter. The Baltic ports do not answer this +requirement, not only because they freeze in the cold season, but +also, and especially, because the narrow Sound can be easily blocked +by a hostile Power and Russia's ships bottled up in the Baltic. Hence +the persevering efforts she made at first to get possession of the +Dardanelles and obtain free access to the Mediterranean in war-time. +More than once she was on the very point of achieving success there, +but lack of enterprise on the part of her statesmen or a sudden +adverse change in the political conjuncture foiled this scheme, the +realization of which was put off indefinitely. The Persian Gulf was +the next object of her designs, but there, too, she encountered a +diplomatic defeat. The third goal lay in the Far East, where a new +Russian empire governed by a Viceroy and possessed of a promising +capital, was founded with every prospect of good fortune. But here, +again, defective statesmanship was followed by failure, and the +campaign against Japan closed the Far Eastern chapter for a long +while. Whither, it was asked, can Russia turn now? Recent events, M. +Sven Hedin assured his countrymen, have already answered the query. +Northwards. The great Slav Empire covets an ice-free harbour in +Norway, and until this war broke out was busily engaged in compassing +its end. At any future moment it may again start off on this +enterprise. It is the duty of patriotic Swedes to thwart this +nefarious project. + +A Norwegian port, it is freely admitted, would not fulfil all Russia's +requirements. It would, for instance, leave much to be desired from an +economic point of view. The resources of the hinterland would be too +scanty. The cost of transport would be too heavy. But strategically it +would answer the purpose admirably. Now this conquest would not be +achieved without invading and annexing a portion of North Sweden as +well. For it would be impossible to keep and utilize such an +acquisition without a hinterland containing factories, workshops, +wharves, docks, stores and a fairly numerous population which, in +turn, would require corn, cattle, timber, etc. Is it credible, asked +M. Sven Hedin, that the southern boundary of this back-land could be +drawn further northwards than to the north of Angermanland, Jaemtland +and Drontheim? At bottom, then, it is the annexation of a vast slice +of Sweden proper that Russia has in view. Perhaps the first route of +the Russian army would lie on the eastern bank of the rivers Torne-aelf +and Muonio-aelf and lead to the Lyngen Fjord. How long would it stop +there? Step by step it would move along the coast southwards to +Drontheim. Then Norrland would be surrounded on three sides by +Russians. "Later on they would tighten the noose and strangle our +country. Are we to remain inactive during the course of events?... The +Swede in general is aware of the existence of this danger and _knows_ +that it may come upon him at any moment as a reality." + +In verity, no normal individual, acquainted with the political +condition of Europe, can be said to know that the peril of a Russian +invasion of Sweden exists or existed of late years. As a matter of +fact, he knows that the contradictory proposition is true. + +The symptoms of Russia's alleged designs on Norway and Sweden are as +fantastic as the sweeping statements by which they are heralded. One +of them was the order issued by the Russian Government to build a +railway bridge over the Neva in Petrograd in order to link the Finnish +railway with all the other stations which are situated on the opposite +bank of that river, as though the Russian capital should be the only +one in Europe without a girdle railway and Finland the sole section +of the empire cut off from all the rest! Another of these "infallible +tokens" of Russia's machinations were the measures adopted to render +the Finnish railways, and, in particular, the Oesterbotten line, +capable of transporting Russian military trains, by enlarging the +stations, strengthening the bridges and rails, and other kindred +expedients. Further, a number of new lines were considered necessary +from a strategic point of view, one connecting Petersburg with Wasa +via Hiitola, Nyslott and Iyvaeskylae. Barracks were built or ordered in +Fredrikshamn, Kouvala, Lahtis and other Finnish towns, or railway +centres. All these precautions, however, are not only explicable +without the theory that Sweden and Norway are to be invaded, but they +ought to have been adopted long ago, say unprejudiced military +authorities, in the interests of Russia's home defence. Yet M. Sven +Hedin concluded his argument with the words: "When it has been further +established that the transport of Russian troops to Finland has +greatly increased--and it is affirmed that there are already about +85,000 soldiers there--and when we also bear in mind that for many +years past Sweden and likewise Norway have been visited by so-called +knife-grinders[53] from Russia, _no doubt can remain. Russia is making +ready for an onslaught on the Northern kingdoms._" + + [53] Several Russian "knife-grinders" are alleged to have + been discovered in various parts of Sweden, moving from place + to place, with maps of various districts and a good deal of + money in their pockets. The Swedes declare that they are + Russian spies. + +But long before Sven Hedin and his friends had begun their campaign, +the ground had been prepared from Berlin, the work of interpenetration +had made great headway, and Germany was regarded by Sweden as an elder +sister. For the economic invasion preceded the political. Statistics +of foreign trade reveal the Teuton as the exporter to that country of +over forty per cent. of the entire quantity of merchandise entering +from abroad.[54] + + [54] The value of wares she sold to Sweden in 1911 is + computed at 275,423,000 krons as against 170,999,000 krons' + worth purchased from Great Britain. + +Switzerland, whose position as a neutral oasis encircled by +belligerents is fraught with difficulty, has long been treated as +hardly more than an adjunct of the German empire, and many of the best +Swiss writers, far from resenting this affront, welcome it as a +compliment. Just as Americans occasionally write about "_the_ King" +when alluding to the British Sovereign, so the Swiss often fall into +the way of describing the operations of "our army," "our cause," when +alluding to the Kaiser's troops and German designs. + +Several times during the progress of the war the conduct of Swiss +organizations and individuals towards the two groups of belligerents +aroused grounded misgivings in the minds of the French, British and +Italians who asked only for the observance of strict neutrality. One +remarkable instance of the pro-German leanings complained of was the +absolute and persistent refusal of the Swiss to submit to reasonable +restrictions respecting the sale to Germany and Austria of goods +exported to Switzerland by the allied countries. This refusal was all +the more significant that it came after the secret acquiescence in the +more stringent limitations which had been imposed on them by the +Germans. Thus two wholly different sets of weights and measures would +appear to have been employed by the spokesmen of the little Republic +in their dealings with the two groups of warring Powers. And it was +always Germany who obtained preferential treatment. + +This bias springs from causes which are stable and deep-rooted. The +bulk of the Swiss people are frankly pro-German in their sympathies +and their military chiefs side with the Teuton on most of those +questions of principle which form the line of cleavage between him and +the allied peoples. That the end justifies the means, is one of those +axioms which the authorities of the Swiss Republic appear to have +endorsed without hesitation. In the month of March 1916 two Swiss +Colonels, Egli and de Wattenwyl, were tried on two charges which, if +proved, would, it was somewhat hastily assumed, bring down severe +retribution on their heads. It was alleged that they had communicated +to the German military authorities important telegraphic messages +intercepted on their way from the Allies. But the evidence adduced was +deemed insufficient to bear out this indictment. The other charge was +that they had regularly handed on the confidential bulletin of the +Swiss General Staff to the military _attaches_ of the Central Empires +in Berne and only to them. And the count was proven to the +satisfaction of the tribunal. Now this act admittedly constituted a +breach of neutrality. Yet the Chief of the Swiss General Staff, +Colonel Sprecher, defended the accused men on the singular ground that +their action--that is to say, a grave breach of neutrality to the +detriment of the allied nations--was excusable because of the end in +view, which was to gain in exchange useful information for the +Intelligence Department of the War Office. This plea is based on the +German military principle that the means are hallowed by the end. + +It is some satisfaction, however, to note that in the Romande cantons +of the Republic a series of protests have been made against the spirit +of Prussian military amorality which, as the pleadings and the +acquittal of the two officers showed, permeates the military circles +of that little State whose very existence depends on its neutrality. + +Kultur is widely diffused throughout the German-speaking cantons of +Switzerland. The German Universities of the Republic are regarded and +treated as Universities of the Fatherland and their professors +interchanged. And when we further reflect that Germany exports to +Switzerland goods to the value of 680,870,000 francs as against +347,985,000 exported by France, who stands second on the list, that +German Universities and those of German Switzerland elect their +professors indiscriminately from among candidates of both countries, +and that German is spoken in Switzerland by more than 2,500,000 +inhabitants as against 796,244 who use French--one cannot affect +surprise at much that called for comment before the war and provoked +mild deprecation throughout its first phase. + + + + +CHAPTER X + +GERMANY AND THE BALKANS + + +For two decades the Balkan States and Turkey had been objects of +Germany's especial solicitude. And with reason. For the part allotted +to them in the plan for teutonizing Europe was of the utmost moment. +The high road from Berlin to the Near East passed through Budapest and +the Balkans. And Austria, as the pioneer of German Kultur there, kept +her gaze fixed and her efforts concentrated on Salonica. Bulgaria's +goodwill had been acquired through Ferdinand of Coburg, himself an +Austro-Hungarian officer, and was maintained by Austria's energetic +championship of Bulgaria's claims against Serbia. Counts Aehrenthal +and Berchtold destined Bulgaria and Roumania to coalesce and form the +nucleus of a permanent Balkan confederation to be patronized and +protected by the Habsburgs. + +But circumstance thwarted the design. And after the Balkan League had +done its work and Turkey's grasp on Europe had relaxed, Bulgaria, in +the person of Ferdinand, was brought to undo what without her lead +could not then have been achieved, to fall foul of her allies and +smash the coalition. + +This incitement was unwelcome to many of Bulgaria's trusty leaders, +who, much though they might grudge Serbia's successes and rapid +growth, were of opinion that Bulgaria would be ill-advised to break +her connection with the Slav cause. But the leaders unexpectedly found +that they were being led, and led away from the natural friends of +Bulgaria by the German prince who had caused the death of Bulgaria's +greatest statesman and made no secret of his contempt for the +Bulgarian people generally. Ferdinand, assuming autocratic power, +rendered this inestimable service to the Teutons and fastened the +Bulgarian State to the Central Empires. + +At some time before the outbreak of the war Ferdinand had struck up a +compact with the Central Empires which bound Bulgaria to follow their +lead. This he did at his own risk and on his own responsibility. I had +grounds for believing in the existence of some such covenant a +considerable time before the storm burst, but I had no tangible proof +of it. In July 1914, however, I knew it for certain, but without +having ascertained the particulars. When and by whom it had been +signed, and what were the main stipulations agreed upon, still +remained in the domain of speculation. I discovered, however, that +Bulgaria's hands were tied; that her mourning for lost Macedonia would +not last long; that the aims she pursued were the policy of the outlet +on four seas, and the territorial separation of Greece and Serbia; +that her role in the Peninsula was to be predominant; that she had +been chosen to supplant Serbia as the leading Balkan State, and would +pay tribute to the Central Empires in the shape of docility to and +ready co-operation with them; and that Roumania would, if she +continued to find favour in the eyes of the statesmen of Vienna and +Berlin, be associated with Bulgaria, but without attaining her rank or +acquiring her power. + +It has since been positively asserted by M. Filipescu, an ex-Cabinet +Minister of Roumania, that "towards the mid-August 1914, when the +treaty was concluded which bound Bulgaria to Germany, the Roumanian +Minister in Berlin, M. Beldiman, had cognizance of this treaty and +apprised the Roumanian Government of the fact."[55] M. Take Jonescu, +the illustrious Roumanian statesman, has assigned a different date to +the conclusion of the agreement, but confirmed the fact of its +existence in the course of a conversation which has also been made +public.[2] He stated that the King of Bulgaria, "who is swayed more by +personal rancour than by the interests of his people, imposed his +policy on them. He allied himself with the Germans as long ago as +Spring 1914. The treaty was taken from Sofia to Berlin by an official +of the Deutsche Bank."[56] + + [55] See _Le Temps_, October 31, 1915. + + [56] Mr. M. Civinini of the _Corriere della Sera_. See + _Corriere della Sera_, October 11, 1915. + +Whatever doubts may prevail respecting the exact date, the main fact +is established--Ferdinand bound Bulgaria to the Central Empires. + +Personal interest as well as State reasons determined him to place +himself under Austro-German protection. It was at Austria's +instigation that he had spurned the advice of his official advisers, +treacherously attacked his allies and brought down defeat upon his +armies and discredit upon himself. But the Habsburg Government had +undertaken to see him through the ordeal to which he was then +subjected by his own people. The Treaty of Bucharest, which deprived +Bulgaria of Kavalla and Salonica, left the wound to fester and +Austro-Bulgarian friendship to harden into a definite alliance. None +the less Bulgaria's friendship with the Central Empires was not openly +manifested until the financial transaction was concluded between them +which made Bulgaria the creditor of Austria-Hungary shortly before the +outbreak of the war. + +Economically, Bulgaria, like her neighbours, had long been a tributary +of the Central Empires. German and Austrian interests were cunningly +intertwined with Bulgarian in almost every branch of national life. +The banks, financial houses, export firms, are all under Austrian or +German control. In the army, too, despite its Russian training and +traditions, there was a party of officers whose admiration for the +war-lord ran away with their discretion. And the celebrated loan of +half a milliard francs, which Austrian financiers undertook to advance +to Bulgaria--on outrageously oppressive conditions--set the crown to +the work of many years. This transaction was not intended by either +party to be purely financial. Its political bearings were evidenced by +the circumstances in which it was negotiated and the terms on which it +was concluded. But the economic concessions insisted upon by Austria +and conceded by Bulgaria constituted of themselves a convincing proof +of the design to reduce the latter country to the position of one of +the dependents of the Central Empires. + +Of all the recognized agencies for penetrating international opinion, +swaying international sentiment, and influencing international action, +one of the most abiding and decisive is that of royal courts. Yet its +value was not merely underrated by Britain, France and Russia, but was +completely ignored. And Germany, whose diplomacy, in spite of its +clumsiness and brutality, was far-sighted and assiduous in watching +for and utilizing every opportunity of smoothing the way for the +execution of the grandiose plan, purveyed almost every court and +throne in Europe with kings, queens and princesses of its own. And +those who were neither Germans by birth nor connected with Germans by +marriage were influenced by education, by military training, or at +least by a system of atmosphering which, with certain striking +examples before one, could be reduced to a few clear rules. + +Roumania at the opening of the war was governed by a Hohenzollern +prince who had linked the destinies of his country with those of +Austria-Hungary as far back as the year 1880, and, having renewed the +secret convention in 1913, which for him was no mere scrap of paper, +convoked a crown council in August 1914 and proposed that Roumania +should redeem his pledge and take the field against the enemies of the +Central Empires. But King Carol's military ardour was not merely +damped but choked by a recalcitrant cabinet. + +That monarch's influence as a pioneer of Teuton Kultur in Roumania can +hardly be exaggerated. An upright ruler, who discharged his duties +conscientiously, the King reckoned among these the dissipation of +native gloom by means of German light. And during his long reign he +succeeded in spreading a network of German economic interests +throughout his realm which, while raising the material level of the +nation, has reduced it to the position of a German tributary. It would +be unjust to make this a subject of reproach to the monarch who acted +up to his lights, but it would be a mistake to belittle the vast +services thus rendered by a single individual to the Teuton race, or +to overlook the degree of responsibility that attaches to the nations +now banded together, and in especial to Russia, for the sequence of +untoward phenomena which, now that they are not only seen, but felt, +and felt painfully, we naively deplore. + +King Carol's successor is also a Hohenzollern prince whose attachment +to his Prussian fatherland is noted, whose relations with his kinsman, +the Kaiser, are cordial, but whose devotion to his subjects is +paramount. More than once since the opening of the campaign Roumania +was believed to be on the point of exchanging neutrality for +belligerency, but, on grounds which it would be unfruitful to discuss, +she abandoned the intention, if she ever harboured it. As matters now +are, the Allies are congratulating themselves on the circumstance that +she is still neutral. + +The Queen of Sweden is a daughter of the most imperialistic of German +princes, the late Grand Duke of Baden and a cousin of the Kaiser, to +whom she is attached by bonds of sympathy and admiration. And her +consort the King, fascinated by the methods, the strivings, the +achievements of the Hohenzollerns, has made more than one attempt to +imitate them, but, owing partly to the opposition of the late Herr +Staaff, and largely to his own mental and moral equipment, which +point in a different direction, he felt obliged to desist. + +The accomplished Queen of the Belgians and the Tsaritsa of Russia are +also both German princesses, but they form exceptions to the rule that +whichever of any two spouses is German exercises an overmastering +influence on the other. The Prince Consort of Holland, the Duke of +Mecklenburg, is a German of the Germans, but through constitutional +channels he can wield no political influence, and the attitude of the +Dutch Government towards the Allies has been clear enough to need no +elaborate exegesis. + +The King of Bulgaria is an ex-officer of the Austro-Hungarian army, +whose pro-German work and its far-resonant results will probably never +be wholly forgotten by his own German people. For, as we saw, it has +rendered them services that cannot be repaid. Not, indeed, that he had +any coherent plan in his mind's eye, or was guided by any deep-seated +moral principles. Politics were for him the art of the possible +enlarged by the negation of the ethical. Ferdinand may, therefore, be +described as an opportunist, who in current politics contented himself +with following his nose. Of treaties and conventions he had signed a +goodly number and broken some. Thus with Russia he had a secret +agreement of a military nature, and also with Russia's rival, +Austria-Hungary. With Serbia he had one set of stipulations, with +Turkey another, but, shifty customer that he is, he had set himself +above them all and was ever ready to follow the lead of personal +interest. What the historian will accentuate is the deftness with +which German diplomacy, for all its alleged clumsiness, contrived to +use his defects and his qualities alike for the furtherance of its own +designs. + +Love of country, like religious faith, is a respectable mainspring of +action. But Ferdinand has been credited with neither. Whithersoever he +moves one looks in vain for the guiding light of large ideas. Deeper +than conscious volition lies the stored-up instinct of barren +pettifogging egotism to which a fine moral atmosphere is deadly. +Insincerity is second nature to him. He once boasted in my presence +that he was a born actor, and it is fair to say that he played his +roles--repellent for the most part--as behoves a mummer. The +astonishing thing is that he should have got influential politicians +to take him seriously. While assuring the French deputy, M. Joseph +Reinach, of his attachment to France and signing himself the European, +he was writing to Professor Walter of Budapest offering "all the +sympathies of the Bulgarian nation" to Hungary.[57] I have read +ecstatic communications of his penned in hours of exaltation, when +visions of Constantine's city, the mosque of Aya Sofia towering aloft, +warmed his fancy and the sheen of Byzantine brocades and the quaint +paraphernalia of bygone days inspired his apocalyptic words. His +language in those telegrams and letters was highfaluting and +bombastic. And I read other communications of his--mostly abject +appeals for help--devoid of dignity and manliness, when the gloom of +dissipated illusions was made unbearable by fear of dethronement and +death. And the figure cut by the Tsarlet, who addressed those humble +prayers--mostly to influential ladies--was despicable. + + [57] In September 1914. See _Morning Post_, September 4, + 1914. + +Ferdinand was swayed by ingrained hatred of Russia which was almost as +potent as his contempt for the Bulgars. And he never made a secret of +either. For the Turkish pasha who was responsible for the Bulgarian +atrocities, which aroused Gladstone's indignation, Ferdinand's +professed admiration took the form of a subscription.[58] But high +above all motives that turned upon his feelings towards others were +those that centred entirely in himself. + + [58] The Batak massacre of Bulgarians by order of Abdul Kerim + Pasha had called forth Gladstone's pamphlet: _Bulgarian + Atrocities_, and aroused the horror of civilized men. But the + Hungarian aristocracy sympathized with the mass murderer, and + presented him with a golden hilted sabre. The list of + subscribers for this mark of aversion to the Bulgarian people + can still be viewed in the Museum at Budapest. The third name + on that list--Princess Clementine--is followed immediately by + that of her son Prince Ferdinand of Coburg, who gave one + hundred florins as a token of his admiration for the + exterminator of his future subjects! It need hardly be added + that he was not yet Prince of Bulgaria. + +And he had cogent personal motives for cultivating cordial relations +with the country of his birth. From the Austrian Government he +expected to be saved from the necessity of abdicating and expiating +his unwisdom. It was his inordinate ambition and vanity which had +brought the Bulgarian nation to the very brink of ruin. He it was who +had insisted on breaking off negotiations with Turkey during the +London Conference and recommencing hostilities. In vain the Chief of +the General Staff, Fitcheff,[59] besought him to conclude peace. The +importunate military adviser was suddenly relieved of his duties and +the second phase of the Balkan war begun. It was Ferdinand, too, who +thwarted Russia's peace-making efforts, refused to send delegates to +the tribunal of arbitration in Petrograd, and ordered the treacherous +attack on the Serbs and the Greeks which culminated in Bulgaria's +forfeiting some of the principal fruits of her heroic military +exertions. + + [59] General Fitcheff has since become Minister of War. + +For this series of baleful blunders--to the Bulgars they were nothing +more--Ferdinand was known to be alone responsible. He had assumed the +sole responsibility, and he had hoped to gather in the lion's share of +the spoils. And as soon as responsibility seemed likely to involve +punishment, his Ministers withdrew and exposed his person to the +nation. When, after the end of the second Balkan war, General Savoff +repaired to Constantinople to better the relations between Bulgaria +and Turkey, he invited a number of French and British journalists who +happened to be just then in the capital, and he addressed them as +follows: "It has come to my ears that in Sofia I am accused of being +the person who issued the order to our army to attack our Allies and +that I am to be tried for it. They will never dare to prosecute me. +For I have here--" and he thumped his side pocket as he spoke--"the +order issued by the real author of the war and in his own handwriting. +He commanded me orally to do this, but I replied that I must have a +written order from the Government. Thereupon he shouted: 'I am the +supreme chief of the army and am about to give you the order in +writing,' indited the behest and handed it to me. That is why he +cannot prosecute me. I will show him up. Already now I tell you, so +that all may hear, _C'est un coquin, un miserable!_"[60] + + [60] This narrative was published by M. Wesselitsky in the + _Novoye Vremya_, November 6, 1915. + +That was General Savoff's summing-up of his august sovereign. And his +forecast proved correct. Ferdinand did not attempt to lay the blame on +him, still less to have an indictment filed against him. On the +contrary, he kissed Savoff on his return to Sofia and later on made +him his adjutant-general. Ferdinand's responsibility being +established, his abdication was clamoured for by public opinion. His +own estimate of his plight was impregnated with despair. He despatched +the abject telegrams mentioned above to his influential friends. It +was then that he received a letter signed by the three chiefs of the +Liberal groups of the old Stambulovist Party--Radoslavoff, Ghennadieff +and Tontcheff--and written, it has been alleged, after consultation +between all four parties, exhorting him to reverse the national policy +and link Bulgaria's fate with that of Austria. The Coburg prince +publicly welcomed them, dismissed the Daneff Cabinet, handed the reins +of power to the three self-constituted saviours of the dynasty and +country, and the Treaty of Bucharest was signed in an offhand manner. +The keynote of the policy of the new Cabinet was hatred of Russia, who +was held up to public opprobrium by the press of Sofia as the +mischief-maker who had betrayed Bulgaria; and as the nation thirsted +for a culprit on whom to vent its rage, the legend obtained a certain +vogue. At the same time emphatic assurances were given by Count +Berchtold that Austria would upset the Treaty of Bucharest, break +down the Serbian and Greek barriers that stood between Bulgaria and +her natural boundaries, and establish Ferdinand and his dynasty more +firmly on the throne. This prospect heartened the King and stimulated +his fellow-workers. + +But perhaps the most decisive factor in Bulgaria's attitude towards +the Central Powers has been that of Russia towards Bulgaria. The +Tsardom cherishes tender feelings towards the political entity which +it called into being. Bulgaria is the creature of the great Slav +people which shed its blood and spent its treasure in giving it life +and viability, and has ever since felt bound to watch over its +destinies, forgive its foolish freaks, and contribute to its political +and material well-being. Congruously with this frame of mind, Russia +has not the heart to deal with Bulgaria as she would deal under +similar provocation with Roumania or Greece. Like the baby cripple, or +the profligate son, this wayward little nation ever remains the +spoiled child. Hence, do what harm she may to Russia, she is not +merely immune from the natural consequences of her unfriendly acts, +but certain to reap fruits ripened by the sacrifices of those whose +policy she strove to baulk. Conscious of this immense privilege, she +takes the fullest advantage of it. Under such conditions no stable +coalition of the Balkan States was possible. + +The remarkable ascendancy thus won by Germany over Bulgaria is but one +of the salient results of her foresight, organization and +single-mindedness which the Allies are now beginning to appreciate. +Their ideal policy in the Balkans was to have none. Great Britain in +particular was proud of her complete disinterestedness. + +Between the Teutons and the Greeks there were no such close ties as +those that linked Bulgaria to the Central Empires. The Hellenic +kingdom is a democracy marked by a constant tendency to anarchy. Down +to the beginning of the reign of the present monarch its ruler was +never more than the merest figure-head, nor its people anything but an +amalgam of individuals deficient in the social sense and devoid of +political cohesiveness. The late King George, for instance, remained, +to the end of his life, an amused spectator of the childish game of +politics carried on by his Ministers; and so insecure did he consider +his tenure of the kingship, that his frequent threat to "take his hat" +and quit the country for good had become one of the commonplaces of +Greek politics. Only a few years ago his reign appeared to be drawing +to an ignominious end. His functions were usurped by a military league +and his sons removed from the army. Anarchy was spreading, at that +time I expressed the opinion that the only person capable of saving +Greece--if Greece could yet be saved--was the Cretan insurgent, M. +Venizelos. This suggestion appealed to the Chief of the Military +League and was adopted. Venizelos was invited to Athens with the +results known to all the world. At first reluctantly tolerated, he was +subsequently highly appreciated by King George and was afterwards +handicapped by King Constantine, whose impolitic instructions during +the Bucharest Conference resulted in sowing seeds of discord between +Greece and Bulgaria. + +To small countries and petty personal ambitions, a war among the Great +Powers brings halcyon days of flattery, bribery and seductive +prospects in an imaginary future. In Greece all these and other +attractions were dangled before the eyes of men of power and +influence. The Sovereign, whose admiration for the Kaiser verges on +idolatry, soon extended this platonic sentiment to the Kaiser's army. +And when fortune seemed definitively to espouse the cause of the +Central Empires, his admiration was reinforced by fear and the +pro-German leanings, which were at first merely platonic, bade fair to +harden into active co-operation. It was not until then that the +Entente Powers, discerning the fateful character of their errors and +the trend of events, resolved after much hesitation and discussion to +put forth an effort to retrieve the situation. Of his philo-German +tendencies King Constantine gave several public proofs long before the +war, and on the psychological soil from which they sprang, German +diplomacy raised its typical structure of intrigue and adulation. As +the irresistible captain who had shattered the armies of Turkey and +Bulgaria, winning undying fame for himself and his country, the King +was encouraged to believe that on him devolved the mission of uniting +all Hellenes under his sceptre, building up a larger Greece, +consolidating the monarchy within, and ruling as well as reigning. And +so well laid was this plan that when the European armies took the +field and the Entente Powers counted Greece, then apparently governed +by Venizelos, among its cordial friends, the Teutons, sure of their +ground, but still working assiduously for their object, put their +trust in the Kaiser's royal henchman and their own permanent display +of force, and were not disappointed. + +Long before the war-cloud burst, the history makers of Berlin +recognized the fact that the key to the Dardanelles lay in Sofia, and +not only to the Dardanelles, but also the key to the Near East. The +statesmen of Austria and Germany discerned that the Bulgars under +their guidance could be got to do for Turkey what Japan hoped, and +still hopes, to effect for China. It is a work of complete +transformation, a sort of political transubstantiation whereby the +Bulgars would infuse ichor into the limp veins of the Ottoman organism +and recreate a strong political entity which would be an instrument in +the hands of the Central Empires. The Bulgar knows the Turk, to whom +he is more akin by race habits and temperament than to any of the Slav +peoples, understands his psychic state, his mode of feeling and +thinking, and is therefore qualified to serve as link between the +Oriental and the Western. It was in view of this eventuality that the +slow, plodding work of grafting Kultur on the Bulgar people was +undertaken. Two German schools, one in Sofia and the other in +Philippopolis, were the centres whence it was radiated to the ends of +the land. In Bulgaria there are many preparatory grammar schools in +which tuition for both sexes is free. All scholars who have passed +through one of the German schools are admitted without any examination +into the Grammar School, or Gymnasium, a privilege which works as a +powerful attraction. Since Turkey retroceded Karagatch[61] to Bulgaria +there are three such centres of Teutonic propaganda in Bulgaria, and I +am informed that a fourth will shortly be established in Rustschuk. + + [61] One of the suburbs of Adrianople ceded in July 1915. + +The record of the economic invasion of Roumania by the Teuton,[62] +supplemented as it was by various complex auxiliary movements of a +political character, supplies us with a fresh variation of the trite +text that Germany conceived her plan on a vast scale and executed it +by co-operation between the State and the individuals, leaving nothing +to chance which could be settled by forethought. The ruler of the +country was a Hohenzollern, and as he wielded absolute power in +matters connected with foreign policy, he had a free hand and kept it +efficaciously employed. For over thirty years King Carol transacted +the international business of the realm--economic as well as +political--with assiduity, conscientiousness and a fair meed of +success. He encouraged industry and commerce, and welcomed German and +Austrian capital and enterprise. The upshot of his exertions was that +in the fullness of time his kingdom, like those of Italy, Bulgaria and +Turkey, became to most intents a nascent Teutonic colony. In Roumania, +as in Bulgaria, the commercial methods and business ways are German. +The heads of banking establishments and great industries are either +Teutons or friends of Teutons. Nearly every big enterprise, commercial +and industrial, was launched and kept afloat by capital from the +Fatherland. The Discount Bank in Berlin has a vast cellar filled with +Roumanian bonds, shares and other securities. So close are the ties +that connect the little state with the great empire that even the +Roumanian railways have a special convention with those of Prussia. +Here, then, as everywhere else, we are in presence of intelligence +wedded to politico-economic enterprise. Individual German firms and +the Government worked hand in hand; diplomacy, trade and commerce +moved steadily towards the same goal, and attained it. + + [62] Roumania's annual imports from Austria-Hungary, + according to the latest available statistics, were valued at + 136,906,000 francs; from Germany at 183,713,000; and from + Great Britain at only 85,470,000 francs. France exported + thither goods valued at no more than 35,273,000 francs. + +Owing to Roumania's grievances against Russia--whose seizure of +Bessarabia nearly forty years ago left a wound which festered for +years and has only recently been cicatrized--King Carol concluded a +military convention with the Austro-Hungarian empire, the stipulations +of which have never been authoritatively disclosed. There is reason to +believe that one clause obliged the Roumanian Government to come to +the support of the Habsburg Monarchy with all its military resources +in case that empire should be wantonly attacked by another Power. +Whether this instrument, which was never laid before the Roumanian +legislature for ratification, is deemed to have been vitiated by the +lack of this indispensable sanction, or is assumed to have terminated +with the decease of the king who concluded it, is a matter of no real +moment. The relevant circumstance is the unwillingness of +Austria-Hungary to invoke the terms of the convention and the resolve +of the Bucharest Cabinet to ignore them. + +Thus Roumania, like all other neutral states, was well within the +sphere of attraction of the Central Empires long before the present +conflict was unchained. And the clever tactics by which siege was laid +to the sympathies of a nation which at bottom has hardly any traits in +common with the besieger, would have entailed a complete revision and +remodelling of the polity of Russia, France and Britain, had these +Powers had any coherent programme or distant aims. But their motto +was: Sufficient unto the day is the evil thereof. + +True, none of those States ever designed a political revolution of the +Old Continent, such as Napoleon had imagined or Germany is now +striving to realize. But neither did they read aright nor even give +serious thought to the symptoms of the great conspiracy which was +being hatched by others for that purpose. Busied with their party +squabbles and social reforms, they took it for granted that +international tranquillity which was a condition of the stability of +all internal affairs was assured. Such occasional misunderstandings as +might crop up among the Powers could, they imagined, always be +smoothed over by manifestations of goodwill and timely concessions. +Fitfulness and hesitancy marked every attempt made by Germany's rivals +to push their trade or extend their political relations beyond their +own borders. + +This lack of enterprise was especially accentuated in their dealings +with Turkey. No Powers had done so much to uphold Ottoman sway in +Europe as France and Britain, and for a long while their exertions +found their natural outcome in a degree of influence at the Sublime +Porte which was unparalleled in Turkish history. But once Germany +inaugurated her economico-political campaign in the Near East, the +principle of neighbourliness was invoked in favour of allowing her to +possess herself of a share of the good things going, whereupon Great +Britain, and in a lesser degree France, curbed their natural impulse +and left most of the field to the pushing new-comer. For years the +writer of these lines pointed out the danger of this self-abnegation, +but his insistent appeals for a more active line of conduct were met +by the statement that Near Eastern affairs had long ceased to tempt +the enterprise or affect the international policy of Great Britain. As +though Great Britain were not a member of the European community or +her geographical insularity implied political isolation; or as if her +policy of equilibrium were capable of being achieved without the +employment of adequate means! When I raised my voice against our +participation in the Baghdad railway scheme and bared to the light the +political designs underlying it, Cabinet Ministers assured the country +that its scope was exclusively economic and cultural and had no +connection with politics! This naive belief and the _laissez-faire_ +attitude which it engendered enabled the Teutons to reduce Turkey to +economic and political thraldom and to earmark Asia Minor, +thenceforward hedged in with the Baghdad and Anatolian railways, as a +future German colony. + +The closeness and constancy of the relations between economics and +politics which easily took root in German consciousness, had for +another of its corollaries the dispatch of General Liman von Sanders +and his band of officers to reorganize the Ottoman army. This measure +struck some observers as the beginning of the end of European peace. +It was thus that the Russian Premier, Kokofftseff, and his colleague, +Sazonoff, construed it, and that was the interpretation which I also +put upon it. But none of the other interested Governments expressed +similar misgivings, nor, so far as one can judge, entertained any. Yet +when war was finally declared, Germany's plan of campaign allotted an +important role to Turkey not in a possible emergency, but at a date to +be determined by the completion of her military and naval equipment. + +In this ingenious and comprehensive way, operating at a multitude of +points, but never dissociating economics from politics, never +abandoning the work of commercial expansion to the unaided resources +of individuals, the Teutonic empires contrived to spread a huge net in +whose meshes almost every civilized nation was to some extent +entangled. And the subsequent political conduct of many of these was +determined in advance by the plight to which they had been thus +reduced. Russia was reasonably believed to be incapable of taking the +field; Italy was accounted wholly unfitted to bear the weight of the +financial burden which a conflict with Germany would lay upon her +shoulders; Roumania, it was calculated, would decline to exchange +material gains for political returns purchased at a heavy cost; +Bulgaria could not afford to estrange Austria's sympathies and need +never fear that she might forfeit those of Russia; Sweden, saturated +with German Kultur, was one of the foreposts of Teutonism in the north +of Europe and might in time be induced to imitate Bulgaria and play +for the hegemony of the Scandinavian States with the Kaiser's help; +Switzerland was virtually German in everything but political +organization; Holland would believe in Prussianism and tremble; +Belgium was economically a pawn in German hands and Antwerp a German +port; and in the United States millions of hyphenated Germans would +plead the Teuton cause and do the rough work of advancing it by means +of their political organization and influence. + + + + +CHAPTER XI + +THE RIVAL POLICIES + + +In face of this Teutonic control of the world's trade, politics and +news supply, the Great Powers whose outlook, political and economic, +was most nearly affected, exhibited a degree of supineness which can +only be adequately explained by such assumptions as one would gladly +eliminate. Anyhow the lessons conveyed by eloquent facts fell upon +deaf ears. Yet it was manifest, in view of Germany's ingenious +combination of economics and politics, and the irresistible +co-operation of the State and individuals in applying it, that the +slipshod methods of Britain and France could no longer be persisted in +without grave danger to these states. To deal with trade and industry +as though they were matters that concerned only the particular +business firms engaged in them was no longer an economical error, it +was also a political blunder. To Government meddling in trade and +industry the British people have ever been averse. And their dislike +is intelligible although no longer warranted. A glance at Germany's +economic campaign and its results ought to have borne out the thesis +that individual self-reliance and push are unavailing to cope with a +potent organism equipped scientifically, provided with large capital +and backed by the resources of diplomacy. New epochs call for fresh +methods, and the era of commercial and industrial individualism was +closed years ago by the German people. Co-ordination of effort, the +combination of politics with economics, and unity of direction were +among Germany's methods in the contest, and she adopted them in the +grounded belief that commerce and industry lie at the nethermost roots +of the vast political movements of the new era. + +This is a century of co-operation, of joint efforts for common +interests, of union in trade, industry, labour, politics and war. To +stand aloof is to be isolated, and isolation means helplessness +against danger. Germany was the first Power to grasp these facts, to +understand the new phase of life and to adapt herself to it. For this +work of readjustment her people were specially endowed by Nature, and +in their equipment for the task they saw a mark of election set upon +them by their "old God." For the correlate of co-operation is talent +for organization, and with this the Teutons are plentifully gifted. +They feel impelled as it were by instinct to push forward much further +on the road already traversed by all nations from isolation to +individualism through gregariousness. They opened the new era of +amalgamation by co-ordinating, on a vast scale, individual +achievements, resources and labour, and directing them to a common +end. The allied peoples were meanwhile content to muddle through in +the old way. This difference explains much that seems puzzling in the +outcome of the struggle. + +It has been affirmed somewhat off-handedly that the Latin and British +peoples, incapable of united and organized effort, have halted at the +individualist stage. They are supposed to lack the bump of +organization. According to this theory among the Germans, who had +passed through all the intermediate phases and carried individualism +to sinister extremes in the past, a reaction set in which called forth +the latent powers of organization which they possess. And these have +been wielded with brilliant results ever since the unity of the German +Empire was first established. Applying the new principle to politics, +the statesmen of Berlin grasped the fact that all future conflicts in +Europe would be waged by coalitions. Neither Austria-Hungary alone nor +the German Empire alone could undertake a world war. That was the +genesis of the scheme of welding the two central empires in one +politico-military entity and then attracting as many other States as +possible into their orbit. And the enterprise was conducted so +ingeniously that when war was declared, Roumania, Bulgaria and Turkey +were tied to the Triple Alliance. And henceforward, whatever the +outcome of the war may be, the permanent fusion of Germany and Austria +is a foregone conclusion. + +By the means described a state of things, actual and potential, was +established which rendered Germany's military attack on Europe much +less hazardous and doubtful a venture than was at first supposed. For +there was not a country on the globe which she or her ally had not +subjected to the process of interpenetration, nor was there one which +had remained wholly irresponsive. Even Brazil, Chili, Peru, China, +Morocco, Persia, Abyssinia, had all experienced its effects. And when +at last the harvest-time was come and its fruits were to be +ingathered Germany felt that she could count to varying extents on the +active sympathy and support of governments, parliaments and nations; +on the Turks, the Swiss, the Swedes, the Bulgarians, the Roumanians; +on the autocratic ruler of the Greeks and on millions of +American-Germans. Every independent religious centre was permeated +with an atmosphere composed in Germany. The Caliph and the +Sheikh-ul-Islam of the Moslems, the evangelical preachers of the +Russian Baltic provinces, Brahmins in India, subjects of the Negus of +Abyssinia, the Jews of western Russia and Poland, as well as those of +the Netherlands, the Catholics of Switzerland, Holland and Italy, nay, +the Vatican itself, raised their voices in the chorus of the millions +who sang hosannah to the Highest.[63] + + [63] The Highest of All is the official designation of the + Kaiser: der Allerhoechste. + +Dismay was the feeling aroused among the Allies by the quick dramatic +moves which precipitated the war. The trump of doom seemed to have +sounded at a moment when mankind was on the point of discovering the +secret of immortality. The utter unpreparedness of the Allies was the +dominant note of the new situation, and its manifestations were +countless and disastrous. There was no adequate British expeditionary +army to send on foreign service, and there existed no machinery by +which such a force could quickly be got together and trained. +Voluntary enlistment was a slowly moving mechanism, and even if it +could be made to work more rapidly, there was no way of employing the +new soldiers, for whom there were neither barracks nor uniforms nor +rifles in sufficiency. And if all these requirements could have been +improvised, there were no generals accustomed to handle armies of +millions. And even if all those wants had been supplied to hand there +was no Government enterprising enough to put them to the best +advantage of the nation. Moreover, colonial expeditions were the most +extensive military operations which the country had carried on within +the memory of the present generation, and it was beyond the power of +the authorities not only to organize the imperial defences on an +adequate scale but even to realize the necessity of attempting the +feat. In a word, the prospect could hardly have been more dismal. + +In France it was a degree less cheerless, but still decidedly bleak. +Mobilization there went forward, it is claimed, more smoothly than had +been anticipated, but not rapidly enough to enable adequate forces to +be dispatched in time against the German military flood. The +organization of the railway system was most inefficient. And had it +not been for heroic Belgium, who, confronted with the alternatives of +ruin with honour and safety with ignominy, unhesitatingly chose the +better part, the inrush of the Teutons would, it is asserted by +military experts, have swept away every obstacle that lay between them +and the French capital, which was their first objective. Belgium's +magnificent resistance thus saved Paris, gave breathing space to the +French, and enabled the Allies to swing their sword before smiting. + +Russia, too, did better than had been augured of her, but not nearly +as well as if her resources had been organized by competent experts, +alive to the dangers that threatened the empire. On the eve of the war +a process of fermentation among the working men of her two capitals +was coming to a head, and a revolt, if not a revolution, was being +industriously organized. The movement had certainly been fostered, and +probably originated, by wealthy German employers in Petrograd, Moscow +and other industrial centres. They had hoped to frustrate the +mobilization order, retard Russia's entry into the field, and possibly +bring about civil strife. And they were within an ace of succeeding. +On the very eve of hostilities reports reached Berlin and Vienna that +the revolution was already beginning. But the declaration of war +against Germany purified the air, absorbed the redundant energies of +the people, and fused all classes and parties into a whole-hearted, +single-minded nation, giving Russia a degree of union which she had +not enjoyed since Napoleon's invasion. But, separated from her allies, +she went her own way without much reference to theirs. Her plans had +been drafted by her military leaders, and might be modified by local +conditions or subsequent vicissitudes, but were neither co-ordinated +nor even synchronized with those of France and Britain. Thus the first +and most important lesson had still to be mastered. + +Liege and Namur having fallen, the danger to Paris struck terror to +the hearts of the French, and the public mind was being gradually +prepared by the Press to receive the depressing tidings of its capture +with dignified calm. The occupation of the capital, it was argued, +would not essentially weaken the military strength of the Republic. +For the army would still be intact, and that was the essential point. +Here, for the first time, one notes the almost invincible force of the +antiquated opinions to which the Allies still tenaciously clung about +warfare as modified by Germany. No misgivings were harboured that the +enemy might threaten to burn the capital city if the army refused to +capitulate, or that he was capable of carrying out such a threat. War +in its old guise, hedged round with traditions of chivalry, with +humanitarian restrictions, with international laws, was how the French +and their allies conceived it. And it was in that spirit that they +made their forecasts and regulated their own behaviour towards the +enemy. + +The rise of Generals Joffre, Castelnau and Foch and the retreat of the +German invaders raised the Allies from the depths of despair to a +degree of confidence bordering on presumption. After the departure of +the Belgian Government to Antwerp,[64] the occupation of Brussels,[65] +the defeat of the Austrian army by the Serbs and the rout of three +German army corps by the Russians,[66] the Western Allies conceived +high hopes of the military prowess of the Slavs, and looked to them +for the decisive action which would speedily bring the Teutons to +their knees. And for a time Russia's continued progress seemed to +justify these hopes. Her troops entered Insterburg[67] and pushed on +to Koenigsberg, which they invested and threatened,[68] and in the +south they scored a series of remarkable successes in Galicia. But in +the west of Europe the Allies could at most but retard without +arresting the advance of the Germans, whose aim was to defeat the +French and then concentrate all their efforts on the invasion of the +Tsardom. Despite assurances of an optimistic tenor there appeared to +be no serious hope of defending Paris, nor were effective local +measures adopted for the purpose; and on September 3 the French +Government, against the insistent advice of three experienced Cabinet +Ministers, suddenly moved to Bordeaux, and earned for itself the +nickname of _tournedos a la bordelaise_. On the same historic day the +Tsar's troops triumphantly entered Lemberg, restored to that city its +ancient name of Lvoff, and proceeded to introduce the Russian system +of administration there with all its traditional characteristics. But +in lieu of conferring full powers on the Governor of the conquered +province, a man of broad views and conciliatory methods, the +Government dispatched a narrow-minded official, devoid of natural +ability, of administrative training, and of the sobering consciousness +of his own defects, and listened to his recommendations. For Russia, +like France and Britain, still contemplated the situation and its +potentialities through the distorting medium of the old order of +things. Their orientation had undergone no change. + + [64] August 17, 1914. + + [65] August 20, 1914. + + [66] August 22, 1914. + + [67] August 23, 1914. + + [68] August 29, 1914. + +One of the immediate consequences of Russian rule in Galicia was to +confirm the Vatican in its belief that Austria offered Catholicism far +more trustworthy guarantees for its unhindered growth than could ever +be expected from the Tsardom. + +The famous battle of the Marne[69] infused new energies into the +Allies, whose Press organs forthwith took to discussing the terms on +which peace might be vouchsafed to the Teutons, and in these +stipulations a spirit of magnanimity was displayed towards the enemy +which at any rate served to show how little his temper was understood +and how enormously his resources were underrated. Soon, however, the +mist of ignorance began to lift, and saner notions of the stern +interplay of the tidal forces at work were borne in upon the leaders +of the allied peoples. One of the first discoveries to be made was the +enormous consumption of ammunition required by latter-day warfare and +the ease with which the Germans were able to meet this increased +demand. That this enormous advantage was the result of scientific +organization was patent to all. Nor could it be ignored that an +essential element of that organization was the militarization of all +workmen whose services were needed by the State. But from the lesson +thus inculcated to its application in practice there was an abyss. And +as yet that abyss has not been bridged. The most formidable obstacle +in the way is offered by the shackles of party politics, which still +hamper the leaders of the Entente Powers, and in particular of Great +Britain. Industrial compulsion has not yet been moved into the field +of practical politics. + + [69] September 12, 1914. + +One of Germany's calculations was that, however superior to her own +resources those of her adversaries might be, they were not likely to +be mobilized, concentrated and brought to bear upon the front. +Consequently they would not tell upon the result. Military discipline +had not impregnated any of the allied nations, whose ideas of +personal liberty and dignity would oppose an insurmountable obstacle +to that severe discipline which was essential to military success. +Great Britain, they believed, would cling to her ingrained notions of +the indefeasible right of the British workman to strike and of the +British citizen to hold back from military service. And the telegrams +announcing that in the United Kingdom the cries of "business as +usual," "sport as usual," "strikes as usual," "voluntary enlistment as +usual," indicated the survival of the antiquated spirit of +individualism into a new order of things which peremptorily called for +co-operation and iron discipline, were received in Berlin and Vienna +with undisguised joy. The persistence of this spirit has been the +curse of the Allies ever since. + + + + +CHAPTER XII + +PROBLEMS OF LEADERSHIP + + +It is worth noting in this connection how heavily the lack of genial +leaders at this critical conjuncture in European history told upon the +allied peoples and affected their chances of success. The statesmen in +power were mostly straightforward, conscientious servants of their +respective Governments, whose ideal had been the prevention of +hostilities, and whose exertions in war time were directed to the +restoration of peace on a stable basis. By none of them was the stir, +the spirit, the governing instincts of the new era or the actual +crisis perceived. They all failed of audacity. Hence they were +solicitous to leave as far as possible intact all the rights, +privileges and institutions of the past which would be serviceable in +the re-established peace regime of the future. In Great Britain the +voluntary system of recruiting the army and navy was to be respected, +the right of workmen to strike was recognized, and the maintenance of +party government was looked upon as a matter of course. The writer of +these pages made several ineffectual attempts to propagate the view +that a War Cabinet presided over by a real chief was a corollary of +the situation, military and industrial compulsion for all was +indispensable, that a discriminating tariff on our imports and a +restriction of certain exports would materially contribute to our +progress, and that a special department for the manufacture of +munitions ought to be organized without delay.[70] One measure +indicative, people said, of undisputed wisdom which was resorted to +was the appointment of Lord Kitchener as Secretary for War.[71] If +this step deserved the fervent approval it met with, its efficacy was +considerably impaired by imposing on the new Secretary the task of +purveying munitions and other supplies, in addition to the +multifarious duties of his office. And with this solitary exception +everything was allowed to go on "as usual," with consequences which +every one has since had an opportunity of meditating. Internal +whole-hearted co-operation between the Government and all the social +layers of the population was neither known nor systematically +attempted, and still less were the respective forces of the Allies +co-ordinated and hurled against the enemy. The struggle was confined +to the army and the navy, and these instruments of national defence +were inadequately provided with the first necessaries for action. + + [70] Cf. _Contemporary Review_, November 1914. I was + requested to suppress an article on the subject of "Coalition + Government" and another on the subject of "Tariff Reform + during and after the War." + + [71] August 5, 1914. + +Each of the Allies was isolated, cooped within its own narrow circle +of ideas, buoyed up by its own hopes, bent on the attainment of its +own special aims. The first step towards amalgamation was negative in +character, but superlatively politic. It took the form of a covenant +by which it was stipulated that none of the Allies should conclude a +separate peace with the enemy. But beyond that nothing was done, nor +was anything more considered necessary. + +In Britain the consciousness that the country was at war spread very +slowly, while the conviction that this was a life-and-death struggle +which would seriously affect the lives and rights and habits of every +individual made no headway. Only a few grasped the fact that a +tremendous upheaval was going forward which marked the rise of a new +era and a complete break with the old. By the bulk of the population +it was treated as a game calling for no extraordinary efforts, no +special methods, no new departures. It was construed as a hateful +parenthesis in a cheerful history of human progress, and the object of +the nation was to have it swiftly and decently closed. Hence the +machinery of the old system was not discarded. Voluntary enlistment +was belauded and agitation against joining the army magnanimously +tolerated. Attacks on the Government were permitted. The manufacture +of munitions was confided to private firms and to the whims of +dissatisfied workmen, and co-operation among the various sections of +the population was left to private initiative. + +Most of us are prone to consider this war as a fortuitous event, which +might, indeed, have been staved off, but which, having disturbed for a +time the easy movement of our insular life, will die away and leave us +free to continue our progress on the same lines as before. But this +faith is hardly more than the confluence of hopes and strivings, +habits, traditions, and aspirations untempered by accurate knowledge +of the facts. And the facts, were we cognizant of them, would show us +that the agencies which brought about this tremendous shock of peoples +without blasting our hopes or exploding our pet theories, will not +spend their force in this generation or the next, and that already the +entire fabric--social, political, and economical--of our national life +is undergoing disruption. + +The shifting of landmarks, political and social, is going steadily if +stealthily forward; and the nation waking up one day will note with +amazement the vast distance it has imperceptibly traversed. If only we +could realize at present how rapidly and irrevocably we are drifting +away from our old-world moorings, we should feel in a more congenial +mood for adjusting ourselves to the new and unpopular requirements of +the era now dawning. Already we are becoming a militarist and a +protective State, but we do not yet know it. We have broken with the +traditions of our own peculiar and insular form of civilization, of +which poets like Tennyson were the high priests, yet we hesitate to +bid them farewell. We still base our forecasts of the future political +life on the past and calculate the outcome of the next elections, the +fate of Disestablishment and Home Rule, the relative positions of the +chief Parliamentary parties on the old bases, and draw up our plans +accordingly. In short, we still bear about with us the fragrant +atmosphere of our previous existence which will never be renewed. And +it is owing to the effects of that disturbing medium that our +observations have been so defective and our mistakes so sinister. We +still fail to perceive that decay has overtaken the organs of our +Party Government and the groundwork of our State fabric is rotten. +Yet everything about and around us is in flux. We are in the midst of +a new environment. + +When this war is over we shall search in vain for what was peculiarly +British in our cherished civilization. Of that civilization which +reached its acme during the reign of the late King Edward, we have +seen the last, little though most of us realize its passing. It was an +age of sturdy good sense, healthy animalism, and dignity withal, and +not devoid of a strong flavour of humanity and home-reared virtue. But +in every branch of politics and some departments of science it was an +age of amateurism. Respect for right, for liberty, for law and +tradition, for relative truth and gradual progress, was widely +diffused. Well-controlled energy, responsiveness to calls on one's +fellow-feeling, and the everyday honesty that tapers into policy were +among its familiar features. But if one were asked to sum it all up in +a single word it would be hard to utter one more comprehensive or +characteristic than the essentially English term, comfort. Comfort was +the apex of the pyramid which is now crumbling away. And it is that +Laodicean civilization, and not the fierce spirit of the new time, +which is incarnate in the present official leaders of the British +nation. + +The French, too, approached the general problem from their own +particular standpoint. Provided with a serviceable military +organization, the same unconsciousness of the need of mobilizing all +the other national resources pierced through their policy. Parties and +factions subsisted as before, and half-way men who would have been +satisfied with driving the enemy out of France and Belgium lifted up +their voices against those who insisted on prosecuting the war until +Prussianism was worsted. The French Socialists met in London[72] and +passed resolutions in which the usual claptrap of the war of classes, +the boons of pacifism and the wickedness of the Tsardom occupied a +prominent place. And the Congress was honoured by the presence of two +Cabinet Ministers, MM. Guesde and Sembat. + + [72] February 1915. + +Russia, true to her old self, carried the narrow spirit of the +bureaucracy into the fiercest struggle recorded by history, seemingly +satisfied that the clash of armies and navies would leave antiquated +theories and moulding traditions intact. When the revolutionist +Burtzeff published his patriotic letter to the French papers approving +Russia's energetic defence of civilization, he was applauded by all +Europe. "Even we," he wrote, "adherents of the parties of the Extreme +Left and hitherto ardent anti-militarists and pacifists, even we +believe in the necessity of _this_ war. The German peril, the curse +which has hung over the world for so many decades, will be crushed." +Yet when he returned to his country resolved to support the Tsar's +Government and lend a hand in the good work, he was sent to Siberia, +in commemoration of the old order of things. + +Germany alone took her stand on the new plane and accommodated herself +to the new conditions. Thoroughness was her watchword because victory +was her aim, its alternative being coma or death. With her gaze fixed +on the end, she rejected nothing that could serve as means. + +In congruity with these divergent views and sentiments was the reading +of the war's vicissitudes in the various belligerent countries. The +allied Press was over-hopeful, right being certain to triumph over +might wedded to wrong. Publicists pitied the Teutons in anticipation +of the fate that was fast overtaking them. Paeans of victory resounded, +allaying the apprehensions and numbing the energies of the leagued +nations. The German, it was asseverated, had shot his bolt and was at +bay. Russia had laid siege to Cracow, and would shortly occupy that +city as she had occupied Lemberg. The Tsar's troops might then be +expected to push on to Berlin, and to reach it in a few months. And, +painfully aware of the certainty of this consummation, Austria was +dejected and Hungary secretly making ready to secede from the Habsburg +Monarchy. To this soothing gossip even serious statesmen lent a +willing ear. The writer of these remarks was several times asked by +leading personages of the allied Governments whether internal +upheavals were not impending in Germany and Austria, and his assurance +that no such diversion could be looked for then or in the near future +was traversed on the ground that all trustworthy accounts from Berlin, +Vienna and Budapest pointed to a process of fermentation which would +shortly interpose an impassable barrier to the further military +advance of the Central empires. But he continued to express himself in +the same strain of warning, which subsequent events have unhappily +justified. + +In October 1914, for instance, he wrote-- + + "Germany has already shot her bolt, people tell us. + Already? The people who for forty years have been preparing + to establish their rule from Ostend to the Persian Gulf have + expended their energies after three months of warfare? And + the concrete foundations built at such pains and expense in + the German factory that dominates Edinburgh? Was the Teuton + simple-minded enough to fancy that he would be in a position + to utilize this and the other emplacements for his giant + guns within three months after the outbreak of hostilities? + Let us be fair to our enemy and just to ourselves. The + German has not shot his bolt. If time is on our side, it + will also remain on his up to a point which we have not yet + reached. Those who urge that the German must make haste + imply that his resources are gradually drying up, and that + neither his food supplies, nor his chemicals, nor his metals + can be imported so long as we hold command of the seas. His + armies will therefore die of inanition, or their operations + will be thwarted for lack of munitions. This would indeed be + joyful tidings were it true. If false, it is a mischievous + delusion. + + "We are told that the German time-table has been upset. + Unquestionably it has. But is the time-table identical with + the programme for which it was drawn up? If it is, then the + march on Paris has been definitely abandoned. Now is this + conclusion borne out by what we behold? What, then, is the + meaning of the plan to capture Belfort and Calais? What is + the object of the vast reinforcements now on their way from + the east to Von Kluck's army? Personally, I have not a doubt + that Paris is the objective, or that the Germans are still + striving to carry out their programme in its entirety, + which is the extension of their empire over Europe and Asia + Minor. The immediate object of the Allies is to foil this + design, and only after we have accomplished that can we + think of assuming the offensive and crushing Prussian + militarism. We have not compassed that end; the battlefields + are still in the Allies' countries, and the initiative rests + with the enemy. Now to whatever causes we may attribute this + undesirable state of things--and it certainly cannot be + ascribed to lack of energy on the part of the British + Government or our military authorities--it is right that + those who are acting for the nation should ask themselves + whether those causes are still operative. If they are--and + on this score there is hardly room for doubt--it behoves the + Allies, and the British people in particular, to rise to a + just sense of the _unparalleled sacrifices_ they must be + prepared to make during the ordeal which they are about to + undergo." + +The German way of looking at the relative strength and positions of +the belligerents as modified by the vicissitudes of the campaign was +realistic and statesmanlike. Starting from the principle that a people +of about a hundred millions, animated by a lively faith in its own +vitality and mental equipment, can neither be destroyed nor +permanently crippled, they argued that the worst that Fate could have +in store for them would be a draw. But before that end could be +achieved the Teutonic armies must have been pulverized and Germany and +Austria occupied by the allied troops. And of this there were no +signs. "We never fancied," they said, "that what happened in 1870 +would be repeated in 1914. How could we make such a stupid mistake? +Then we had only France against us. To-day we encounter the combined +forces of Russia, France, Belgium and England. This difference had to +have its counterpart in the campaign. Thus we have not yet captured +Paris. But then to-day we are wrestling with the greatest empires in +the world, and we hold them in our grip. We are fighting not for a few +milliard francs and a disaffected province, but for priceless spoils +and European hegemony. Moreover, Belgium, which we possess and mean to +keep, is a greater prize than the temporary occupation of Paris. +Besides, postponement is not abandonment. Whether we take the French +capital one month or another is but a detail. + +"And, over and above all this, we have reached the sea and are within +a few miles of England's shores. Furthermore, Russia's army, which we +lured into East Prussia until it fancied it was about to invest +Koenigsberg, has been driven back beyond Wirballen far into Tsardom, +with appalling losses of men and material. Her other forces, which +several weeks ago boasted that they were about to capture Cracow, will +soon be driven out of Przemysl and Lemberg. Libau will fall into our +hands. Riga is sure to be ours, and Warsaw itself will finally admit +our victorious troops. Does this look like defeat at the hands of our +enemies? And German soil is still as immune from invasion as though it +were girded by the sea." + +In all our forecasts one important element of calculation was +invariably left out of account: the consequences of our blunders, +past, present and future. And these have added enormously to our +difficulties and dangers. Not the least made was the mistake in +allowing the two German warships _Goeben_ and _Breslau_ to enter the +Dardanelles. To have pursued them into Ottoman waters would, it was +pleaded in justification, have constituted a violation of Turkish +neutrality. Undoubtedly it would, but the infringement would not have +been more serious than many flagrant breaches of neutrality which the +Sublime Porte had committed a short time before and was known to be +about to perpetrate again.[73] But a scrupulous regard for the rights +of neutrals has been, and still is, the groundstone of the Allies' +policy, irrespective of its effects on the outcome of the war. The +rules of the game, it is contended, must be observed by us, however +much they may be disregarded by the enemy. This considerateness and +scrupulosity may be chivalrous, but they form an irksome drag on a +nation at war with Teutons. The two ships were at once transferred by +Germany to the Turks.[74] Some two months later, deeming their war +preparations completed, the latter suddenly bombarded the open Russian +town of Theodosia in the Black Sea, and sank several small craft, thus +realizing Germany's hopes and justifying her politico-economic policy. +It was now too late to lament the chivalrous attitude which had +permitted the _Goeben_ and the _Breslau_ to steam into the +Dardanelles, or to regret the indifference we had persistently +displayed to Near Eastern affairs for well-nigh twenty years. The best +that could be done at that late hour was to face the consequences of +those errors with dignity and to strive to repair them with alacrity. +But all the efforts made were partial and successive. There was no +attempt at co-ordination. + + [73] Turkey had already violated her neutrality to our + detriment many times. For instance, on September 25 she had + erected military works against us on the Sinai frontier; as + far back as August 25 Turkish officers had seized Egyptian + camels laden with foodstuffs. Moslem fidahis in Ottoman + service endeavoured to incite the Egyptian Mohammedans + against the British Government during the first half of + October. + + [74] August 13, 1914. + +Turkey's defection was a serious blow to the allied cause, not only in +view of the positive, but also of the negative, advantages it was +calculated to confer upon Germany. The Ottoman army, consisting of +first-class raw materials, had had its latent qualities unfolded and +matured by German organization, discipline and training. Its supplies +were replenished. Ammunition factories were established. Barracks were +built and fortifications equipped in congruity with latter-day needs. +Three million pounds of German bar gold reached Constantinople, and +were deposited in the branch offices of the Deutsche Bank there for +the requirements of the army. In all this the Kaiser's Government ran +no risks. The return was guaranteed by the politico-economic measures +which had been continuously applied during the years of our +"disinterestedness." + +Enver had meanwhile risen to the zenith of his career. He was now War +Minister and had surrounded himself with officers who would follow him +whithersoever he might lead them. A low-sized, wiry man, seemingly of +no account, Enver is pale of complexion, shuffling in gait. His eyes +are piercing, and his gaze furtive. A soul-monger who should buy him +at his specific value and sell him at his own estimate would earn +untold millions. For, to use a picturesque Russian phrase, the ocean +is only up to his knees. He is physically dauntless and buoyant. In +the war against Italy he had fought well and organized the Arab and +other native troops under conditions of great difficulty, winning +laurels which have not yet withered. A Pole by extraction, Enver Pasha +is a Prussian by training and sympathies, and a Turk by language and +religion and by his marriage with a daughter of the Sultan. Political +sense he has none. His one ideal was to earn the appreciation of the +Prussian military authorities, to whom he looks up as a fervid +disciple to peerless masters. German military praise melts his manhood +and turns his brain. He possesses a dictatorial temper with none of +the essential qualities of a dictator, and in the field he is +distinguished, I am told, by splendid valour without an inkling of +scientific strategy. + +It was that Polish Turk and his German masters who formally made war +upon Russia, France and Britain.[75] And the Turkish nation had no +opportunity to sanction or veto their resolve. Nay, even the majority +of the Cabinet, including the Grand Vizier, had had no say on the +issue, were not even informed of what was being done until overt acts +of hostility had actually clinched the matter. Indeed, there was a +majority of Cabinet Ministers in favour of neutrality, but it was +ignored. In this way Turkey threw in her lot with the Teutons,[76] to +the astonishment of the Allies, who had hoped that a policy of +forbearance and meekness would elicit a friendly response and +frustrate the effect of the master strokes by which Germany, during a +long series of years, had consolidated her ascendancy over Turkey and +obtained the command of the Ottoman army. The childish notion that a +sudden exhibition of pacific intentions and goodwill is enough to foil +the carefully laid schemes of a clever enemy which have been maturing +for decades, is the refrain that runs through the history of our +foreign policy for the last thirty or forty years. And not only +through the history of our foreign policy. Faith in the sacramental +efficacy of an improvisation is a trait common to all the Allies, but +in the British nation it is the faith that is expected to move +mountains. + + [75] November 3, 1914. + + [76] On October 25, 1908, after having studied the origins of + the Turkish Revolution and the antecedents of its authors, + and while all Europe was still warmly congratulating the + Young Turks on their bloodless victory and moderation, I + dispatched the following telegraphic message to the _Daily + Telegraph_-- + + "Most unwillingly do I give utterance to facts and + impressions calculated to introduce a jarring note into the + harmonious optimism of Western peoples, who confidently augur + great things of the young Ottoman nation, and discern no + difficulties likely to become formidable dangers to the + new-born State. But a knowledge of all the essential data is + indispensable to correct the diagnosis without which the + malady cannot be successfully treated. Emancipation, then, + has produced a beneficent enthusiasm for the political ideals + of Europe in minds hitherto impermeable to Western notions, + but has neither transformed the national character nor + supplied the revolutionary movement with the requisite + constructive forces. _Neither can it break the fateful + continuity of Turkish history nor avert the defects of the + destructive causes that have been operative here for + generations._" + +The negative aspect of Turkey's belligerency proved to be quite as +irksome as the positive. For it involved the closing of the +Dardanelles to Russia's corn export and the disappearance of the +principal route for communications between the Tsardom and its Western +allies. Archangel is blocked in winter and inadequately connected by +rail with the two capitals in summer. This additional embarrassment +and its financial sequel compelled the attention of the Allies to the +need of some kind of co-operation--just to satisfy actual needs. For +neither then nor at any subsequent period was there any pretence of +laying open the whole ground and building a complete structure upon +that. A temporary expedient is all that was contemplated, and nothing +more lasting was evoked. None the less, the Conference of the three +Finance Ministers in Paris[77] marked a step in advance, and was +subsequently followed up by a closer and more continuous contact. + + [77] February 6, 1915, and the following three days. + + + + +CHAPTER XIII + +PROBLEMS OF FINANCE + + +Finances are the nerve of warfare, and in a contest which can be +decided only by the exhaustion of one of the belligerents they are, so +to say, the central nerve system. The Germans being astute financiers, +and aware that the war to which their policy was leading would soon +break out, had made due preparations, with a surprising grasp of +detail. Nothing was forgotten and nothing neglected. And success +rewarded their efforts. The result was that they mobilized their +finances long before they had begun to mobilize their troops. + +France, on the contrary, persuaded that peace would not be disturbed, +took no thought of the morrow. Yet her budgetary estimates showed an +ugly deficit. This gap, however, would have been filled up in the +ordinary course of things by a big loan which was about to be floated. +But M. Caillaux, probably the most clever financier in France, who, if +he applied his knowledge and resourcefulness to the furtherance of his +country's interests, could achieve great things, used them--and +together with them his parliamentary influence--to upset the Cabinet +and thwart the loan scheme. Then, taking over the portfolio of the +Finance Minister in the new Cabinet, he arranged for borrowing a small +instead of a large amount, thereby exposing his country to risks more +serious than the public realized. For it was a heavy disadvantage on +the eve of the most exhausting struggle ever entered upon by the +French people, whose strongest position was weakened as no enemy could +have weakened it. + +Russia was in a different, but nowise better, position when suddenly +called upon to meet the onerous demands of the world-contest. She, +too, having pinned her faith to the maintenance of peace, had made no +preparations for war, financial or military. Moreover, a considerable +sum of her money was at the time deposited in various foreign +countries, and especially in France, for the service of her loans and +the payment of State orders placed with various firms. This money, on +the outbreak of hostilities, was automatically immobilized by the +moratorium, although the delicate question whether a moratorium can be +legally applied to sums thus deposited by a foreign Government has not +yet been decided with finality. As a matter of fact, Russia's deposits +remained where they were, and could not be utilized. The consequences +of this embargo were irksome, and for a time threatened to become +dangerous. Little by little, however, these restrictions were removed, +partly by the French Government and partly by the spontaneous efforts +of the banks. + +France, too, suffered in a like way from the paralysing effect of the +moratorium. For the French had no less than half a milliard francs +lent out at interest for short terms in Russia. This sum could, as it +chanced, have been refunded at once without inconvenience, seeing that +it was liquid in the banks of Petrograd, Moscow, Warsaw, and other +cities of the Tsardom. But as the money was in Russian roubles, and +all international exchange had ceased, it too was incapable of being +converted into francs. Thus the two allies, although really flush of +money, were undergoing some of the hardships of impecuniosity, and to +extricate them from this tangle was a task that called for the +exercise of uncommon ingenuity. This happily was forthcoming. + +But that was only one aspect of a larger and more momentous business +which the financiers of the Entente Powers had to set themselves to +tackle. Another of its bearings was the effect of the war upon the +rate of exchange of the rouble, which is of moment to all the Allies. +Indeed, so long as the conflict lasts the smooth working of the +financial machines of the three States is of as much moment to each +and all as is the winning of battles and the raising of fresh armies. +In this struggle and at least until the curtain has fallen upon the +final scene, the maintenance of financial credit and the purveyance of +ready cash, together with all the subsidiary issues to which these +operations may give rise, should be discussed and settled in common. + +During the present world combat, which has not its like in history, +whether we consider the issues at stake, the number of troops engaged, +or the destructive forces let loose, the ordinary narrow conceptions +of mutual assistance, financial and other, with their jealous care of +flaccid interests, cannot be persisted in. The basic principle on +which it behoves the allied Powers to sustain each other's vitality +can only be the community of resources within the limits traced by +national needs. For our cause is one and indivisible, and a success of +one of the Allies is a success of all. Hence, although we move from +different starting-points and by unconnected roads, we are one +community in motive, tendencies and sacrifices. The sense of Fate, +whose deepening shadow now lies across the civilized nations of the +Old Continent, has evoked the sympathies of the partner peoples for +each other, and temporarily obliterated many of the points of +artificial distinction which owed their existence to national egotism. + +Russia's resources, then, were immobilized at the outset of the war. +The minister who had spent thirty-five years in the financial +department of State had resigned shortly before. His successor, a man +of considerable capacity and good intentions, was bereft of the help +of the best permanent officials of the Ministry, who had followed the +outgoing minister into retirement. And no minister ever needed help +more sorely than M. Bark. For the sudden cessation of all +international exchange and the consequent immobilization of Russia's +financial reserve, made it temporarily impossible for her to satisfy +demands which could easily have been met under circumstances less +disconcerting. Here her British ally came to the rescue. In the first +place, the British Government gave its guarantee to the Bank of +England for the acceptances which this bank had discounted. These were +of two kinds: all acceptances whatever discounted before hostilities +had broken out, and all commercial acceptances discounted since the +declaration of war. The measure which brought this welcome assistance +was general in its form, but it included Russian bills accepted in +London. And this discount by the Bank of England will continue until +one year after the close of the campaign. In plain English, that +means that the greater part of Russia's cash payments in London will +be put off until then. + +In Russia's dealings with France a like trouble made itself felt, but +the same remedy was not applied. The Government there did not offer a +State guarantee for acceptances by the Banque de France. The reasons +for this difference of method are immaterial. The main point is that +some other expedient had to be devised whereby Russia could discharge +her short-term debts to her French creditors. In the Tsardom money was +available for the purpose, but it was in roubles, which would first +have to be exchanged into francs, and, as there was no rate of +exchange, this operation could be effected, if at all, only at a +considerable and unnecessary loss. + +After several weeks' negotiations, and a thorough study of the +question, an agreement was struck up between the Imperial Russian Bank +and the Banque de France, by which the latter institution placed at +the disposal of the former the requisite sum in francs which was +specially earmarked for the payment of Russia's private debts in +Paris. + +The fall in the rouble was partly caused by the diminution of Russian +exports, in consequence of the closing of the Baltic, the +Mediterranean, and the land routes _via_ Germany and Austria. The +whole harvest of 1914 lay garnered up in the Tsar's dominions, where +prices fell to a low level, while the rouble lost one-fourth of its +value. Russia's interest on her foreign debt was thus increased by +twenty-five per cent. The Western allies, on the other hand, were +paying huge sums for corn to neutrals. As in the long run all Entente +Powers will have to bear their share of eventual losses, it behoved +them to prevent or moderate them. And this they accomplished to a +limited extent. It might have been well to go further into the matter +and consider the advisability of entering into closer partnership than +was established by their concerted efforts in Paris. An economic +league with privileges for importation and exportation accorded to all +its members--and only to these--not merely during the war but for a +series of years after the conclusion of peace, might perhaps have +tended to solve that and kindred problems. But the Allied Governments +were constitutionally averse to taking long views or adopting +comprehensive measures. + +But the reopening of the Dardanelles and the liberation of Russia's +corn supplies called for immediate attention and a concrete plan of +campaign. The idea of rigging out a naval and military expedition had +been mooted in London before the Financial Conference in Paris, but on +grounds which do not yet constitute materials for public history it +was dropped. At the Conference the scheme was again taken up, and the +previous objections to its execution having been successfully met it +was unanimously accepted. It is worth observing that the original +plan, so far as the present writer was cognizant of it, was coherent, +adequate and feasible, and involved co-ordination on the part of all +three Allies. It did not contemplate a purely naval expedition to the +Dardanelles, but provided for a mixed force of land and sea troops, of +which the number was considerable and under the conditions then +prevalent might also have been ample for the purpose. Although the +Allies had thus made what they believed to be adequate provision for +the success of their project, they took measures to render assurance +doubly sure. They entered into pourparlers with Greece, from whose +co-operation they anticipated advantages which would tell with +decisive force not only on the outcome of the expedition but also on +the upshot of the war. + +Venizelos was approached and sounded on the subject. His authority in +his country, like that of Bismarck on the eve of his fall, was held to +be supreme. For he had saved Greece from anarchy and the dynasty from +banishment; he had reorganized the army, strengthened the navy, +established good government at home, extended the boundaries of the +realm and laid the foundations of a regenerate State which might in +time reunite under the royal sceptre most of the scattered elements of +Hellenism. His personal relations with King Constantine were, however, +understood to be wanting in cordiality, but the monarch was credited +with sufficient acumen to perceive where the interests of his dynasty +and country lay, and with common sense enough to allow them to be +safeguarded and furthered. It was on these unsifted assumptions that +the Governments of the allied Powers went to work. + +One redoubtable obstacle to be dislodged before any headway could be +made was Bulgaria's opposition. In order to displace it, it would be +necessary to acquiesce in her demands for territory possessed by her +neighbours. And in view of the intimate relations, political and +economical, which the military empires had established with Bulgaria +and their firm hold over Ferdinand, even this retrocession might prove +inadequate for the purpose. According to a binding arrangement +between Serbia and Greece, no territorial concession running counter +to the settlement of the Bucharest Treaty might be accorded to +Bulgaria by either of the two contracting States, without the consent +of the other. And now Venizelos was asked to signify his assent to the +abandonment by Serbia of a part of the Macedonian province recently +annexed. This point gained, he was further solicited to cede Kavalla +and some 2000 square kilometres of territory incorporated with Greece, +to Bulgaria, in return for the future possession of 140,000 square +kilometres in western Asia Minor. It was stipulated by him and hastily +taken for granted by the Governments of the Allied States that these +concessions, together with those which Serbia and Roumania were +expected to make, would move Bulgaria to follow Russia's lead and +enter the arena by the side of the Allies. But before Venizelos's +readiness to compromise could be utilized as a practical element of +the negotiations, the Bulgarian Cabinet had applied for and received +an advance of 150 million francs from the two Central empires on +conditions which, in the judgment of the Greek Premier, rendered +further dealings with that State nugatory. + +At the same time King Constantine, yielding to German importunity and +to personal emotions, adopted a series of measures of which the effect +would have been to discredit in the eyes of the nation Venizelos's +patriotism as a minister and his veracity as an individual. The upshot +of these machinations was the voluntary retirement of the Premier from +public life, the dissolution of the Greek Parliament, the accession +to power of a Germanophile Cabinet, and the frustration of that part +of the Allies' plan which had for its object the immediate +co-operation of Greece and the subsequent enlistment of the +neighbouring Balkan States. As yet, however, Greece was not wholly +lost to the Entente. Another opportunity presented itself which, had +it been seized by the Governments of Great Britain and France, might +yet have altered the course of Balkan history. But the acceptable +offer in which it was embodied by the Hellenic Government elicited no +response whatever in London or Paris. This was the last hope. +Thenceforward the Allies were constrained to rely upon their own +unaided exertions. + +How they approached the problem thus modified, and to what degree and +in consequence of what technical occurrences the achievement fell +short of reasonable expectations, are matters which do not come within +the scope of this summary narrative of historic events. It may suffice +to contrast the belief, which in March 1915 was widespread--that the +Dardanelles would be forced and Constantinople captured in the space +of four or five weeks--with the circumstance that since then the +British troops alone had nearly a hundred thousand casualties and that +in the month of January 1916 it became evident that nothing could be +gained by further prolonging this painful effort, and the enterprise +was abandoned. + +In spite of Turkey's hostility, the tone of the Allied Press lost +little of its buoyancy. Japan, who had declared war on Germany in +August,[78] had since captured Kiao Chau[79] and that achievement +coupled with the results of four months' warfare in Europe were held +to be promising. For Germany's original plan of campaign had been +foiled, her army driven back from Paris, and Austria had been defeated +in Galicia. If on the debit side of the balance nearly all Belgium and +nine departments of France had fallen into the enemy's hands, it was +some solace to learn that the military authorities of the Allies had +reckoned with all that from the outset. Every reverse sustained by +their arms turned out to have been foreseen and discounted by their +sagacious leaders. Then, again, it was argued that time was on our +side, enabling us to develop our resources, which are much vaster than +those of the enemy. To this way of looking at the situation the writer +of these lines opposed another. "There is," he wrote, "a small section +of the nation, men conversant with the aims, modes of thought, and +military, financial, and economic resources of the enemy, whose gloomy +forecasts in the past have been unhappily fulfilled in the present, +and who would gladly see more conclusive evidence than has yet been +offered that everything which can be done at a given moment to turn +the scale more decisively in our favour is being expeditiously +undertaken by the responsible authorities. + + [78] August 23, 1914. + + [79] November 6, 1914. + +"They are afraid that the gravity of the issues for which we are +fighting, the telling initial advantages secured by the wily enemy, +the formidable nature of the difficulties in the way of decisive +victory, and the tremendous sacrifices which we shall all be called +upon to make before we come in sight of the goal, have not yet +filtered down into the consciousness of any considerable section of +the people." Many months later[80] Mr. Lloyd George re-echoed that +judgment when dealing with the Welsh miners' strike. + + [80] July 1915. + +But optimism continued to prevail among the allied peoples, who +through the Press proclaimed their conviction that ultimate and +complete success was a foregone conclusion. At the same time, however, +an eager desire to hasten this consummation found vent among a +considerable section of politicians, more particularly in France. And +one of the means by which they hoped to attain their goal was by +inviting Japan to co-operate with the Allies in Europe. As +"invitation" was the term employed, the peculiar manner in which the +idea was conceived hardly needs definition. To the Japanese themselves +the inference was patent and distasteful. Theretofore it had been a +dogma that France, Britain and Russia, being quite capable of crushing +Germany and Austria, neither attempted nor wished to draw any neutral +or Asiatic nation into the sanguinary maelstrom of war. And even now +it was held to be undignified to swerve from that doctrine. Help +therefore, it was contended, was not indispensable to victory, it was +merely desirable from the humanitarian standpoint of putting an early +end to the campaign and sparing the lives of millions. + +French statesmen of the calibre of MM. Pichon and Clemenceau pushed +into the foreground of international politics this question of Japan's +military intervention in Europe. An organized Press campaign was +carried on in several of the most prominent daily papers and reviews +of Paris.[81] Striking arguments were put forward in support of the +thesis that Japan's co-operation in Europe is desirable, and the +inference which many readers were encouraged to draw was that if the +aim had not yet been attained, failure should be ascribed to the +statesmanship of the Allies, which was deficient in sagacity, or to +their diplomacy, which was wanting in resourcefulness. M. Pichon, in a +masterly article in the _Revue_, wrote: "I am one of those who hold +that (Japan) could bring to us here on the European continent an +incomparable force, and I remain convinced that the Japanese +Government would like nothing better than to respond to the appeal of +the Triple Entente Powers if these requested its collaboration for +future combats."[82] + + [81] In the _Petit Journal_, the _Homme Enchaine_, + _l'Illustration_, the _Revue Hebdomadaire_, and the _Revue_. + + [82] Fevrier, _Revue_, 1915, p. 195. + +The idea was that Japanese troops should come to southern Europe, +combine with the Serbs and create a new front there. This diversion, +it was contended, would transform the slow and costly siege war and +give the Allies access to Germany. And these decisive results could be +achieved by an expedition of less than half a million Japanese +warriors. + +When it was asked what motives could be held out to Nippon potent +enough to determine her to embark on such an enterprise, the reply was +that she had a positive interest to undertake the task. For by +contributing to the defeat of Germany in Europe she would free herself +from Teutonic machinations in the Far East. The Allies would, of +course, have to promise her territorial compensation commensurate with +her sacrifices. And after the conclusion of peace Japan would extract +from Germany not only a sum big enough to cover all the expenses of +the expedition, but also a heavy war indemnity. Over and above this, +France and Britain would enable her to float on easy terms a loan of +some three hundred millions sterling, as a moderate return for the +three or four months curtailment of the war which costs the Allies +nearly a hundred and twenty millions a month. Lastly, Japan's horn +would be vastly exalted and her prestige increased by her +participation in the most tremendous conflict recorded in history. + +Considered on its merits the enterprise impressed one more by its +arduousness than by the tangible advantages it offered to either of +the interested parties. The technical difficulties were many and +well-nigh insurmountable: the lack of transports, the distance at +which the Mikado's troops in Europe would be from their base of +supplies, and the length of time that must elapse before they could +replenish their stores of ammunition, whether these were drawn from +Tokyo or manufactured in Europe. And half a million fighting men, +however well trained, would represent but a drop in the ocean when +flung against the millions to whom they would be opposed. + +Still more decisive was the question of motive. Why should the +Japanese sacrifice their brave soldiers? For the sake of territory +which they do not yet covet, or of prestige which they enjoy in a +superlative degree already? Although chivalrous and highly impressible +to everything that can appeal to a high-minded people, they are also +practical and far-sighted and are not to be lured by a will-o'-the-wisp. +They had already assisted the Allies in the Far East and performed +their part admirably. + +The Japanese army is made up of patriots whose lives belong to their +country. To their spirit of self-sacrifice there are no bounds. And +that this splendid organism should be implicitly set down as a band of +mercenaries capable of being bought and sold is more than its leaders +can brook. The idea that mere money or money's worth could purchase +Japanese blood is resented by our Far Eastern Ally. Between Europe and +Asia Japan is the connecting link. Her people are endowed with some of +the highest qualities of the European and the Asiatic. Their +civilization is ancient and refined, and they understand and +appreciate that of Europe. The chivalry of the Samurai is recognized +universally. Their respect for their plighted word is scrupulous. And +their tact and moderation have been demonstrated time and again during +their relations first with Russia and then with the United States. +Japan's immediate task lies in the Far East, and to that region she is +minded to confine her activity, as was shown by the pressure which she +soon afterwards put upon China. None the less, it is symptomatic of +feelings which are still inarticulate and of currents which flow +beneath the surface, that more than once of late the Russian Press has +called for a defensive and offensive alliance between the Tsardom and +Japan.[83] That it will come and exert a noteworthy influence on the +politics of the world, is the firm conviction of the present writer, +who has had the good fortune to contribute more than once to bring the +two Powers closer together.[84] + + [83] Cf. _Novoye Vremya_, June 26, 1915. + + [84] See Hayashi's _Secret Memoirs_. + + + + +CHAPTER XIV + +READJUSTMENTS + + +Deprived of the help for which they had looked to Japan, the +publicists and politicians of the allied countries now centred their +hopes on the neutrals and on Kitchener's great army, which was to +appear on the scene in spring, put an end to the warfare of the +trenches, and free Belgium from the Teuton yoke. The impending +belligerency of certain of the neutrals would, it was reasonably +believed, turn the scales in favour of Britain, France and Russia. +Indeed, Bulgaria alone, owing to her commanding geographical position, +might have achieved the feat more than once during the campaign. With +the death of King Carol of Roumania[85] the probability of this +consummation seemed to verge on certitude. It aroused high hopes among +the Allies. + + [85] October 10, 1914. + +The propitious moment seemed to have come for the union of all +Roumanians under the sceptre of the new king. Over three million +members of that race under Hungarian sway had long been waging a +losing contest for their nationality, language and religion. And they +entertained no hope of better prospects in the future. For in view of +her military inferiority Roumania, with her little army of half a +million men, could not indulge in energetic protests against the +treatment meted out to her kindred by Hungary. She had no choice but +to resign herself to the inevitable. Diplomatically, too, she was +bound to Austria by a secret convention, concluded by the Hohenzollern +prince who had presided over her destinies for a generation. +Economically she was, as we saw, tied hand and foot to Germany. +Moreover, it was a matter of common knowledge that King Carol would +never tolerate any radical change in the political orientation of the +kingdom. To the writer of these lines he said so in plain words +shortly before he died, and he also charged him with a message of the +same tenor to the Austro-Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs. But, +loyal and conscientious, as was his wont, King Carol added that if +circumstances should ever necessitate a radical change in Roumania's +attitude, a younger ruler might usher it in, for whom he would not +hesitate to make room. + +This eventuality arose in September[86] when the Russians defeated the +Austrians, occupied Lemberg, threatened Cracow, took up strong +positions on the Carpathians, and bade fair to overrun Hungary. Fate, +it seemed, had at last overtaken the Habsburg Monarchy, which, +contrary to general expectation, had not succumbed to internal strife +on the outbreak of the war. And it now lay with Roumania and her +neighbours to play the part of Fate's executors. As a matter of fact, +Roumania suddenly found a sonorous voice in which to utter her +grievances against the Teutons. Senators, deputies, ex-ministers +executed a _chassez croisez_ movement through France, Italy and +Britain, delivering diatribes against Austria-Hungary, arousing +sympathy for Roumania, and proclaiming their country's resolve to +strike a blow for justice, liberty and civilization. The names of +Senator Istrati, M. Diamandy, and Dr. Constantinescu were associated +with feasts of patriotic sentiment and flow of soul. Military +delegates in Paris made extensive purchases of various necessaries for +the commissariat and sanitary departments of the War Ministry, and the +date on which the gallant Roumanian nation would unsheathe its sword +in the cause of humanity was unofficially announced. + + [86] September 8, 1914. + +At that moment the country was governed, as it still is, by a Premier +who might appropriately be termed its Dictator, so little influence on +his policy and methods is wielded by his colleagues in the Cabinet. +John Bratiano is the sole trustee of the nation at the most critical +period of its history. The son of an eminent and deservedly respected +statesman, this politician entered public life encircled by the halo +of his father's prestige. Gifted with considerable powers, he owes +more to birth than to hard work and self-discipline. Entering early +upon his valuable political heritage he found all paths smoothed, all +doors open to him. The leadership of the most influential +parliamentary party fell to him at an age when other politicians are +painfully struggling with the preliminary difficulties in the way of +success, and John Bratiano became the ruler of Roumania without an +effort. Descended from an illustrious stock, he is penetrated with an +overmastering sense of his own personal responsibility, from which the +principal relief to be obtained lies in the indefinite prolongation of +his liberty of choice. Finality in matters of momentous decision +appears painful to him, and the standard of success which would +fairly be applied to the policy of the ordinary statesman seems too +lax for the man whose shoulders are pressed down with the weight of +the kingdom as it is and the kingdom yet to come. Hence his anxiety to +drive a brilliant bargain with the Allies and to leave no hold for +hostile criticism at home. Like most patriots placed in responsible +positions, he is bent on furthering what he considers the interests of +his country in his own way, and honestly convinced that the right way +is his own, he has hitherto declined to share responsibility with the +Opposition--which disapproves his Fabian policy--even though it +numbers among its members a real statesman of the calibre and repute +of Take Jonescu. + +At first M. Bratiano swam with the stream. He assured foreign +diplomatists, eminent Italians and others, that Roumania had decided +to throw in her lot with the Allies. And his declarations were +re-echoed by his colleagues. These statements were duly transmitted to +the various Cabinets interested, and the entry of Roumania into the +struggle was reckoned with by all the Allied Powers. On the strength +of these good intentions one of the Allies was asked to advance a +certain sum of money for military preparations, and the request was +complied with. Italy was approached and treated as a trusty confidant, +and a tacit arrangement was come to with her by which each of the two +Latin States was expected to communicate with the other as soon as it +should decide to take the field. In fine, it was understood that +Roumania would join in at the same time as Italy. + +Cognizant of those intentions and preparations the Allies rejoiced +exceedingly. The prospect that opened out before them appeared +cheerful. Kitchener's great army was to take the offensive in spring, +Roumania's co-operation was due some months or weeks previously, and +the forcing of the Dardanelles might be counted upon as a corollary, +to say nothing of the adherence of Greece and Bulgaria to the allied +cause. But Germany and Austria lost nothing of their self-confidence. +Clumsy though their professional diplomacy might be, their +economico-diplomatic campaign had left little to be desired. Its +fruits were ripe. They had firmly knitted the material interests of +the little Latin State with their own, and could rely on the backing +of nearly every supporter of Bratiano's Cabinet in the country. But +leaving nothing to chance, they now put forth the most ingenious, +persistent and costly efforts to maintain the ground they had won. +Influential newspapers were bought or subsidized, new ones were +founded, public servants were corrupted, calumnies were launched +against the Allies and their supporters, and a nucleus of military men +ranged themselves among the opponents of intervention. + +M. Bratiano suddenly turned wary and circumspect. His talk was now of +the necessity of time for preparations, of the divergence of views +between his Cabinet and that of the Tsar, and of the inadequacy of the +motives held out to his country for belligerency. Thereupon +negotiations began between Russia and Roumania, which dragged on +endlessly. What the Roumanian Premier said to the Russian Minister was +practically this: "The choice between belligerency and neutrality must +be determined by the balance of territorial advantages offered by +each. And the terms must be adequate and guaranteed." The conditions +which, according to him, answered to this description consisted of the +cession of all Transylvania, part of the Banat of Temesvar, the +Roumanian districts of Bukovina, and of the province of Crishana and +Marmaros. + +About Transylvania there was no dissentient voice: it was admitted +that it ought by right to form part of the Roumanian kingdom. The +dispute between Bucharest and Petrograd hinged on a zone of the Banat +and a strip of Bukovina. The Tsar's Government admitted that Bukovina +might be annexed by Roumania as far as the river Seret, but not +farther north; whereas the Roumanian Premier insisted on obtaining the +promise of a zone the northern boundary of which would be formed by +the river Pruth, and would therefore include the important city of +Czernowitz, which is the capital of the province. The divergence of +opinion arising out of this demand for the district of Pancsova in the +Banat of Temesvar raised a formidable obstacle to an understanding, +for the claim runs counter to the principle of nationality somewhat +pedantically laid down by the Allied Powers. Parenthetically, it is +worth remembering that hard-and-fast principles which lead insensibly +to dogmatism cannot be too sedulously avoided by a Government. +Politics must assuredly have its ideals, but compromise is the method +by which alone it can approach them. The Allies have already been +constrained by tyrannous circumstance to entertain important +exceptions to their principle of nationality which was invoked against +Italy's claim to Dalmatia, and in their own best interests they might +have compromised on the subject of Bulgaria's claims to Macedonia, +and of Roumania's pretensions to annex certain of the disputed +territories inhabited by Serbs and Ruthenians. + +In truth, Roumania's attitude, of which at various times conflicting +accounts have been given, appears to be what one might reasonably +expect, considering the sympathies of the nation, the interests of the +State, and the requirements of the conjuncture. Looking at it from the +view-point of the outsider, it would perhaps have been to her interest +to join the Allies when the Russians, driving the Magyars and the +Austrians before them, could have played the part of right wing to her +armies. It was generally believed later on that she would unsheathe +the sword at the same time as Italy. Informal announcements to that +effect are known to have been made to certain official representatives +of that country. And her failure to stand by these spontaneous +declarations was the cause of profound disappointment to the Entente +and of a considerable loss of credit to herself. These facts and +conclusions appeal with irresistible force to the uninitiated, and in +especial to those among them who are citizens of the belligerent +States. + +But there is another aspect of the matter which, whatever effect its +disclosure may have on the general verdict, is at any rate well worth +considering. According to this version, which is based on what +actually passed between Bucharest and the capitals of the Entente +Powers, the central idea of Roumania's strivings was to achieve +national unity together with defensible military frontiers as far as +appeared feasible, and to obtain in advance implicit assurances that +the Entente Powers, if victorious, would allow her claims without +demur or delay. The territories occupied by the Roumanians of +Transylvania, the Bukovina, and the Banat were to be united under the +sceptre of the King, including the strip which is contiguous to +Belgrade. To this the Slavs demurred because Belgrade could then no +longer remain the Serbian capital. But of these demands M. Bratiano +would make no abatement, nor in the promise of the Entente to fulfil +them would he admit of any ambiguity. Roumania's experience in 1877, +under M. Bratiano's father, when, after having helped Russia to defeat +the Turks, she was deprived of Bessarabia and obliged to content +herself with the Dobrudja, was the main motive for this striving after +definite conditions, while her readiness to look upon that loss of +Bessarabia as final moved her to demand every rood of Austro-Hungarian +territory which was inhabited by her kinsmen or had belonged to them +in bygone days. These motives were inconsistent with the mooting of +the Bessarabian question, and the statement so often made in the Press +that Roumania demanded, and still demands, that lost province from +Russia are absolutely groundless. The subject was never once broached. + +It has been argued that although these claims to recompense may have +been reasonable enough in themselves, to have made them conditions of +Roumania's participation in the war on the side of the Allies smacked +more of the pettifogger than of the statesman. In a tremendous +struggle like the present for lofty ideals this bargaining for +territorial advantages showed, it was urged, the country and the +Government in a sinister light. To this criticism the friends of M. +Bratiano reply that most of the belligerents set the example, with far +less reason than Roumania could plead. Italy, for instance, had made +her military co-operation conditional on the promise of a large part +of Dalmatia, as well as the _terra irredenta_, and Russia insisted +upon having her claim to Constantinople allowed. Why, it is asked, +should Roumania be blamed for acting similarly and on more solid +grounds? + +During the first phase of the conversations which were carried on +between Roumania and the Entente there would appear to have been no +serious hitch. They culminated in a loan of L5,000,000 advanced in +January 1915. In the following month they ceased and were not resumed +until April, when M. Bratiano was informed that it would facilitate +matters if he would discuss terms with the Tsar's Government. By means +of an exchange of notes an arrangement had been come to by which +Roumania was to have "the country inhabited by the Roumanians of +Austria-Hungary" in return for her neutrality and on the express +condition that she should occupy them _par les armes_ before the close +of the war. I announced this agreement in the summer of 1915 and, +commenting on the controversy to which it gave rise, pointed out that +it amounted only to a promise made by Russia and an option given to +Roumania, which the latter state was at liberty to take up or forgo as +it might think fit. It bound her to nothing. Consequently, to accuse +her of having broken faith with Italy or the Entente is to betray a +complete lack of acquaintance with the facts. + +It was only when Roumania's military participation was solicited that +difficulties began to make themselves felt. And they proved +insurmountable. So long as the Russian armies were victorious +Roumania's demands were rejected. When the Tsar's troops, for lack of +ammunition, were obliged to retreat, concessions were made very +gradually, slight concessions at first, which became larger as the +withdrawal proceeded, until finally--the Russian troops being driven +out--everything was conceded, when it was too late. For with the +departure of the Russian armies Roumania was so exposed to attack from +various sides, and so isolated from her protectors, that her military +experts deemed intervention to be dangerous for herself and useless to +the Allies. + +In Italy, it has been said with truth, the conviction prevailed that +Roumania would descend into the arena as soon as the Salandra Cabinet +had declared war against Austria, and a good deal of disappointment +was caused by M. Bratiano's failure to come up to this expectation. +But the expectation was gratuitous and the disappointment imaginary. +In an article written at the time I pointed out that one of the +mistakes made by the Entente Powers consisted in the circuitous and +clumsy way in which they negotiated with Roumania. The spokesman and +guardian of Italy during the decisive conversations with the Entente +was the Foreign Minister, Baron Sonnino, the silent member of the +Cabinet. Now, this turned out to be a very unfortunate kind of +guardianship, which his ward subsequently repudiated with reason. For +one effect of his taciturnity--the Roumanians ascribed it to his +policy--was to keep Roumania in the dark about matters of vital moment +to her of which she ought to have had cognizance. Another was to +treat with the Entente Governments as though Roumania had sold her +will and private judgment to the Salandra Cabinet. This, however, is a +curious story of war diplomacy which had best be left to the historian +to recount. One day it will throw a new light upon matters of great +interest which are misunderstood at present. Roumania's co-operation +then, as now, would have been of much greater help to the Allies than +certain other results which were secured by sacrificing it. And +sacrificed it was quite wantonly. We are wont to sneer at Germany's +diplomacy as ridiculously clumsy, and to plume ourselves on our own as +tactful and dignified. Well, if one were charged with the defence of +this thesis, the last source to which one would turn for evidence in +support of it is our diplomatic negotiations with M. Bratiano's +Cabinet. + +In the light of this _expose_ the severe judgments that have been +passed on the policy of the Roumanian Cabinet may have to be revised. + +The crux of the situation was the attitude of Bulgaria. Bulgaria, a +petty country with a population inferior to that of London, +impregnated with Teutonism and ruled by an Austro-Hungarian officer +who loathes the Slavs, had throughout this sanguinary clash of peoples +rendered invaluable services to the Teutons and indirectly inflicted +incalculable losses on the civilized nations of the globe. This +tremendous power for evil springs from her unique strategic position +in Eastern Europe. At any moment during the conflict her active +assistance would have won Constantinople and Turkey for the Allies, +and if proffered during one of several particularly favourable +conjunctures might have speedily ended the war. But so tight was +Germany's grip on her that she not only withheld her own aid, but +actually threatened to fall foul of any of the Balkan States that +should tender theirs. It is, therefore, no exaggeration to affirm that +the duration of this war and some of the most doleful events +chronicled during the first year of its prosecution, are due to the +insidious behaviour of Ferdinand of Coburg and his Bulgarian +coadjutors. One may add that this behaviour constitutes a brilliant +and lasting testimony to the foresight and resourcefulness of German +diplomacy. It is one of the products of German organization as +distinguished from French and British individualism. + +While Bulgaria was thus holding the menace of her army over Roumania's +head, and M. Bratiano stood irresolute between belligerency and +neutrality, the German and Austrian armies were effectively +co-operating with German and Austrian diplomatists. They compelled the +Russians to withdraw from Eastern Prussia,[87] and from a part of +Galicia,[88] later on from Lodz, from the Masurian Lakes and +Bukovina.[89] Gradually Roumania saw herself bereft of what would have +been her right wing and cover, and her military men, the most +influential of whom had been against intervention from the first, now +declared the moment inauspicious on strategical grounds. Thereupon the +oratorical representatives of the Roumanian people consoled themselves +with the formula that Roumanian blood would be shed only for Roumanian +interests, and that when a fresh turn of Fortune's wheel should bring +the Russian troops back to Bukovina and Galicia, the gallant +Roumanians would strike a blow for their country and civilization. + + [87] October 13, 1914. + + [88] December 6, 1914. + + [89] February 15, 1915. + +It would be unfruitful to enter into a detailed examination of the +efforts of the Allies to detach the neutrals, and in especial the +Balkan States, from the Military Empires with which their interests +had been elaborately bound up. But in passing, one may fairly question +the wisdom of their general plan, which established facts--still +fragmentary in character--enable us to reconstruct. The resuscitation +of the Balkan League and the mobilization of its forces against Turkey +was an enterprise from which the greatest statesmen of the nineteenth +century, were they living, would have recoiled. For it presupposes an +ascetic frame of mind among the little States, which in truth hate +each other more intensely than they ever hated the Turks. The first +condition of success, were success conceivable, would have been the +abrogation of the Treaty of Bucharest and the redistribution of the +territories, which its authors had divided with so little regard for +abstract justice and the stability of peace. And to this procedure, +which Bulgaria ostentatiously demanded, Serbia entered a firm demurrer +in which she was joined by Greece. For Serbs and Bulgars have always +been hypnotized by Macedonia. Their gaze is fixed on that land as by +some magic fascination, which interest and reason are powerless to +break. They think of the future development, nay of the very existence +of their respective nations, as indissolubly intertwined with it. To +lose Macedonia, therefore, is to forfeit the life-secret of nation. +Hence Bulgaria obstinately refused to abate one jot of her demands, +while Serbia was firmly resolved to reject them. It mattered nothing +that the fate of all Europe and of these two States was dependent on +compromise. The little nations took no account of the interests at +stake. Each, like Sir Boyle Roche, was ready to sacrifice the whole +for a part, and felt proud of its wisdom and will-power. + +Under these circumstances the scheme of a resuscitated Balkan League +should have been accounted a political chimera, whereas politics is +the art of the possible. What might perhaps have been envisaged with +utility was the selection of the less mischievous and more helpful of +the unwelcome alternatives with which the allied diplomacy was +confronted. If, for instance, it could have been conclusively shown +that Bulgaria's help was indispensable, adequate and purchasable, the +plain course would have been to pay handsomely for that. However high +the price, it would have been more than compensated by the positive +and negative gains. If, on the other hand, Bulgaria were recalcitrant +and inexorable, the Tsardom which protected her might to some good +purpose have become equally so, and displayed firmness and severity. +It has been said that Russia cannot find it in her heart either to +coerce Serbia or to punish Bulgaria. If this be a correct presentation +of her temper--and in the past it corresponded to the reality--then +the Allies are up against an insurmountable obstacle which must be +looked upon as one of the instruments of Fate. + +Our Press is never tired of repeating that the neutrals have a right +to think only of their own interest and to frame their policy in +strict accordance with that, whether it draws them towards the Allies +or the Teuton camp. To this principle exception may be taken. If it be +true that the European community, its civilization and all that that +connotes are in grave danger, then every member of that community is +liable to be called on for help, and is bound to tender it. In such a +crisis it is a case of every one being against us who is not actively +with us. Otherwise the contention that this is no ordinary war but a +criminal revolt against civilization, is a mere piece of claptrap and +is properly treated as such by the neutrals. But there is another +important side of the matter which has not yet been seriously +considered. If the neutrals are warranted in ignoring the common +interest and restricting themselves to the furtherance of their own, +it is surely meet that the Allies, too, should enjoy the full benefits +of this principle and frame their entire policy--economic, financial, +political and military--with a view to promoting their common weal, +and with no more tender regard for that of the non-belligerent States +than is conducive to the success of their cause and in strict +accordance with international law. The application of this doctrine +would find its natural expression in the creation of an economic +league of the Allied States with privileges restricted to its members. +It may not be irrelevant to state that during one phase of the war +combined action of the kind alluded to would have given the Allies the +active help of one or two neutral countries. Nay, if the exportation +of British coal alone had been restricted to the belligerents, the +hesitation of those countries between neutrality and belligerency +would have been overcome in a month. + +Italy and Bulgaria, being the two nations whose attitude would in the +judgment of German statesmen have the furthest reaching consequences +on the war, were also the object of their unwearied attentions. And +every motive which could appeal to the interest or sway the sentiment +of those peoples was set before them in the light most conducive to +the aims of the tempter. Those painstaking efforts were duly rewarded. +Bulgaria, before abandoning her neutrality, had contributed more +effectively even than Turkey to retard the Allies' progress and to +facilitate that of their adversaries. + +For Italy's restiveness Germany was prepared, but it was reasonably +hoped that with a mixture of firmness, forbearance and generosity that +nation would be prevailed upon to maintain a neutrality which the +various agents at work in the peninsula could render permanently +benevolent. And from the fateful August 3, 1914, down to the following +May, the course of events attested the accuracy of this forecast. At +first all Italy was opposed to belligerency. Deliberate reason, +irrational prejudice, religious sentiment, political calculation, +economic interests and military considerations all tended to confirm +the population in its resolve to keep out of the sanguinary struggle. +The Vatican, its organs and agents, brought all their resources to +bear upon devout Catholics, whose name is legion and whose immediate +aim was the maintenance of peace with the Central empires. The +commercial and industrial community was tied to Germany by threads as +fine, numerous and binding as those that rendered Gulliver helpless in +the hands of the Lilliputians. The common people, heavily taxed and +poorly paid, yearned for peace and an opportunity to better their +material lot. The Parliament was at the beck and call of a dictator +who was moved by party interests to co-operate with the Teutons, while +the Senate, which favoured neutrality on independent grounds, had made +it a rule to second every resolution of the Chamber. In a word, +although Italy might wax querulous and importunate, her complaints and +her demands would, it was assumed, play a part only in the scheme of +diplomatic tactics, but would never harden into pretexts for war. + +For it was a matter of common knowledge that departure from the +attitude of neutrality, whatever its ultimate effects--and these would +certainly be fateful--must first lead to a long train of privations, +hardships and economic shocks, which would subject the limited staying +powers of the nation--accustomed to peace, and only now beginning to +thrive--to a searching, painful and dangerous test. From a Government +impressed by this perspective, and conscious of its responsibility, +careful deliberation, rather than high-pitched views, were reasonably +expected. + +And the attitude of the Cabinet since August 1914 had been marked by +the utmost caution and self-containment. Contemplated from a distance +by certain of the Allies whose attention was absorbed by the political +aspect of the matter, this method of cool calculation seemed to smack +of hollow make-believe. Why, it was asked, should Italy hold back or +weigh the certain losses against the probable gains, seeing that she +would have as allies the two most puissant States of Europe, and the +enormous advantage of sea power on her side? + + + + +CHAPTER XV + +THE POSITION OF ITALY + + +But intervention in the war was not one of those ordinary enterprises +on which Italy might reasonably embark, after having carefully counted +up the cost in men and money and allowed a reasonable margin for +unforeseen demands on both. In this venture the liabilities were +unlimited, whereas the resources of the nation were bounded, the +limits being much narrower than in the case of any other Great Power. +And this was a truly hampering circumstance. Serious though it was, +however, it would hardly avail to deter a nation from accepting the +risks and offering up the sacrifices requisite, if the motive were at +once adequate, peremptory and pressing. + +But Italy, unlike the Allies, had had no strong provocation to draw +the sword. Grievances she undoubtedly possessed in plenty. She had +been badly dealt with by her allies, but forbearance was her rule of +living. For nearly a generation she had been a partner of the two +militarist States, yet she shrank from severing her connection with +them, even when they deliberately broke their part of the compact. +This breach of covenant not only dispensed her from taking arms on +their side, but would also, owing to the consequences it involved, +have sufficed to warrant her adhesion to the Entente Powers. But for +conclusive reasons--lack of preparedness among others--she condoned +all affronts and drew the line at neutrality. + +The country was absolutely unequipped for the contest. The Lybian +campaign had disorganized Italy's national defences and depleted her +treasury. Arms, ammunition, uniforms, primary necessaries--in a word, +the means of equipping an army--were lacking. The expenditure of +L80,000,000 sterling during the conflict with Turkey rendered the +strictest economy imperative, and so intent was the Cabinet on +observing it that the first candidate for the post of War Minister +declined the honour, because of the disproportion between the sum +offered to him for reorganization and the pressing needs of the +national defences. + +The outbreak of the present conflict, therefore, took Italy unawares +and found her in a condition of military unpreparedness which, if her +participation in the war had been a necessity, might have had +mischievous consequences for the nation. Availing herself of this +condition of affairs and of the pacific temper of the Italian people, +Germany reinforced those motives by the prospect of Corsica, Nice, +Savoy, Tunis and Morocco in return for active co-operation. But the +active co-operation of Italy with Austria and Germany was wholly +excluded. The people would have vetoed it as suicidal. The utmost that +could be attempted was the preservation of her neutrality, and that +this object would be attained seemed a foregone conclusion. + +And it is fair to state that this belief was well grounded. When war +was declared and Italy was summoned to march with her allies against +France, Britain and Russia, she repudiated her obligation on the +ground that the clause in their treaty provided for common action in +defence only, not for co-operation in a war of aggression, such as was +then about to be waged. And that plea could not be rebutted. This +preliminary dissonance to which the Central empires resigned +themselves was followed by disputes which turned upon the +interpretation of the compensation clause of the Treaty, upon Italy's +territorial demands and Austria's demurrers. Thus from first to last +the issues raised were of a diplomatic order, and if German statesmen +had received carte blanche to settle them, it is not improbable that a +compromise would have been effected which would have left the Italian +Government no choice but to persevere in its neutrality. + +And German statesmen strove hard to wrest the matter from their ally +and take it into their own hands, but were only partially successful. +Both they and the Austrians selected their most supple and wily +diplomatists to conduct the difficult negotiations. Prince Buelow was +appointed German Ambassador to King Victor's Government, Baron Macchio +supplanted Merey in Rome, but the most sensational change effected was +the substitution of Baron Burian for Count Berchtold in the Austrian +Ministry of Foreign Affairs.[90] This latter event was construed by +the European public as the foretoken of a new and far-resonant +departure in Austria's treatment of international relations. In +reality it was hardly more than the withdrawal from public business of +a tired statesman _malgre lui_ who had persistently sought to be +relieved of his charge ever since his first appointment. Count +Berchtold's name is inseparably associated with events of the first +magnitude for his country and for Europe, but on the creation or +moulding of which he had little appreciable part. It is hardly too +much to say that if, during the period while he held office, the +Ministry of Foreign Affairs had been without a head, the mechanism +would have worked with no serious hitch, and with pretty much the same +results which we now behold. For he was but the intermediary between +the mechanism and the real minister, who invariably appeared as a +_deus ex machina_ in all the great crises of recent years, and who was +none other than the Emperor Francis Joseph himself. + + [90] January 15, 1915. + +Count Berchtold was a continuator. He endeavoured under adverse +circumstances to carry out the feasible schemes of his predecessor, +but the obstacles in his way proved insurmountable. He is a +straightforward, truthful man, and in the best sense of the word a +gentleman. The greatest achievement to which he can point during his +tenure of power is the disruption of the Balkan League. Having had an +opportunity of seeing the working of the scheme at close quarters, I +may say that it was ingenious. Pacific by temperament and conviction, +he co-operated successfully with the Emperor to ward off a European +conflict more than once. But from the day when Count Tisza won over +Franz Josef to the ideas of Kaiser Wilhelm, Count Berchtold's +occupation was gone. + +His successor, Baron Burian, entered upon his office with an +established reputation and a political programme. But so immersed were +the Allies in the absurd illusions which ascribed disorganization to +Germany and discord to the two imperial Governments, that Burian's +appointment was read by many as an omen that Austria-Hungary was +already scheming for a separate peace. Events soon showed that the +disorganization was not in Germany nor the discord on the side of the +Central Empires. + +Meanwhile the Italian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Di San Giuliano, +had succumbed to a painful illness, which, however, did not prevent +him from writing and reading dispatches down to the very eve of his +death.[91] His successor was Sydney Sonnino, perhaps the most upright, +rigid and taciturn man who has ever had to receive foreign +diplomatists and discourse sweet nothings in their ears. Devoid of +eloquence, of personal magnetism and of most of the arts deemed +essential to the professional diplomatist, he is a man of culture, +eminent talents, fervid zeal for the public welfare, steady moral +courage, and rare personal integrity. Pitted against the supple and +versatile Buelow, his influence might be likened to that of the austere +philosopher gazing at the incarnate Lamia. + + [91] Di San Giuliano died on October 18, 1914. He was working + for a short time on the 17th. + +Between these two statesmen conversations began[92] under favourable +auspices. One of the conditions to which each of them subscribed was +the maintenance of rigorous secrecy until the end of their labours. +And it was observed religiously until Germany's "necessity" seemed to +call for the violation of the pledge, whereupon it was profitably +violated. Baron Sonnino told the German plenipotentiary that "the +majority of the population was in favour of perpetuating neutrality, +and gave its support to the Government for this purpose, provided +always that by means of neutrality certain national aspirations could +be realized."[93] Buelow at once scored an important point by taking +sides with Italy against Austria on the disputed question whether +Clause VII of the Triple Alliance entitled the former country to +demand compensation for the upsetting of the Balkan equilibrium caused +by Austria's war on Serbia. That view and its practical corollaries +set the machinery going. The Austrian Government abandoned its _non +possumus_, and discussed the nature and extent of the compensation +alleged to be due. But it never traversed the distances between words +and acts. + + [92] On December 20, 1914. + + [93] Italian Green Book, Despatch N. 8. + +One of the many wily devices by which the German Ambassador sought to +inveigle the Consulta into forgoing its right to resort to war was +employed within three weeks of the beginning of negotiations. Buelow +confidentially informed Sonnino that Germany was sending Count von +Wedel to Vienna to persuade the Cabinet there to cede the Trentino to +Italy, and asked him whether, if Austria acquiesced, it would not be +possible to announce to the Chamber that the Italian Government had +already in hand enough to warrant it in assuming that the main +aspirations of the nation would be realized.[94] "Absolutely +impossible," was Sonnino's reply. But the Dictator Giolitti, whom +Prince Buelow took into partnership, was more confident and pliable. +This parliamentary leader, whose will was law in his own country and +whose life-work consisted in eliminating ethical principles from +politics, made known his belief--nay, his positive knowledge--that by +diplomatic negotiations the nation could obtain concessions which +would dispense it from embarking on the war. This pronouncement had a +widespread effect on public opinion, confirming the prevalent belief +that Austria would satisfy Italy's claims. + + [94] Italian Green Book, January 14, 1915, Despatch N. 11. + +There was no means of verifying those announcements, for the Rome +Government scrupulously observed its part of the compact, and allowed +no news of the progress of the conversations to leak out. In fact, it +went much farther and deprived the Italian people systematically of +all information on the subject of the crisis. Consequently the +poisoners of the wells of truth had a facile task. + +It was no secret, however, that the cession of the Trentino would not +suffice to square accounts. Italy's land and sea frontiers were +strategically so exposed that it was sheer impossible to provide +adequately for their defence. And this essential defect rendered the +nation semi-dependent on its neighbour and adversary and powerless to +pursue a policy of its own. For half a century this dangerous flaw in +the national edifice and its pernicious effects on Italy's +international relations had been patiently borne with, but Baron +Sonnino considered that the time for repairing it and strengthening +the groundwork of peace had come. And as he had not the faintest doubt +that technically as well as essentially he had right on his side, he +pressed the matter vigorously. Austrian diplomacy, dense and dilatory +as ever, argued, protested, temporized. In these tactics it was +encouraged by the knowledge that Italy was unequipped for war, and by +the delusion that the remedial measures of reorganization then going +forward were only make-believe. The Italian Government, on the other +hand, convinced that nothing worth having could be secured by +diplomacy until diplomacy was backed by force, was labouring might and +main to raise the army and navy to a position as worthy as possible of +a Great Power and commensurate with the momentous issues at stake. + +But the position of the Cabinet was seriously weakened by the domestic +and insidious enemy. Giolitti's pronouncement had provided the +Austrians with a trump card. For if the Dictator accounted the +proffered concession as a settlement in full, it was obvious that the +Cabinet, which was composed of his own nominees whom he could remove +at will, would not press successfully for more extensive compensation. +Giolitti was the champion and spokesman of the nation, and his +estimate of its aspirations alone carried weight. And now once more +the Dictator, acting through his parliamentary lieutenants, organized +another anti-governmental demonstration which humiliated the Cabinet +and impaired its authority as a negotiator. Of this favourable +diversion the Austrians availed themselves to the full. But gradually +it dawned upon them that behind the Italian Foreign Minister a +reorganized Italian army, well equipped and partially mobilized, was +being arrayed for the eventuality of a failure of the negotiations. By +way of recognizing this fact the Ballplatz increased its offer, but +only very slightly, while it grew more and more lavish of arguments. +But the "principal aspirations of the Italian people" had not yet been +taken into serious consideration by Baron Burian. Down to April 21 +this statesman had not braced himself up to offer anything more than +the Trentino, which Prince Buelow had virtually promised in January, +and this despite the intimation given by the Italian Foreign +Secretary, that after the long spell of word-weaving and +hair-splitting he must insist on a serious and immediate effort being +put forth to meet Italy's demands. + +Thus during five months of tedious negotiations Austria had contrived +to exchange views and notes with the Consulta without offering any +more solid basis for an agreement than the cession of a part of the +Trentino. It is fair to add that even this appeared a generous gift to +Franz Josef's ministers, who failed to see why the Habsburg Monarchy +should offer any compensation to an ally from whom help, not claims, +had been expected. To a possible abandonment of territory on the +Isonzo or elsewhere the Vienna Cabinet made no allusion. On April 8 +Sonnino presented counter proposals, which he unfolded in nine +clauses. They comprehended the cession of the Trentino, including the +frontiers established for the kingdom of Italy by the Treaty of Paris +of 1810; a rectification of Italy's eastern boundaries, taking in the +cities of Gradisca and Gorizia; the transformation of Trieste and its +territory into an autonomous State, internationally independent; the +transfer to the kingdom of Italy of the Curzolari group of islands; +all these territories to be delivered up on the ratification of the +Treaty. Further, Italy's full sovereignty over Valona was to be +recognized by Austria, who should forswear all further designs on +Albania and concede a full pardon to all persons of those lands +undergoing punishment for political or military offences. On her side +Italy would consent to pay 200,000,000 francs as her share of the +public debt and of other financial obligations of the provinces in +question, to remain absolutely neutral during the present war, and to +renounce all further claims to compensation arising out of Clause VII +of the Treaty.[95] + + [95] Italian Green Book, Dispatch N. 64. + +Those terms were rejected by the Austrian Foreign Minister on grounds +which have no longer any practical interest. Noteworthy is his remark +that even in peace time the immediate consignment of such territory as +Austria might be willing to abandon would be impossible, and during +the prosecution of a tremendous war it was inconceivable.[96] From +this position he had never once swerved during the five months' +conversations, and he was backed by Germany, who on March 19 had +offered to guarantee the fulfilment of the promise after the war. But +a fortnight later he suddenly changed his ground without really +yielding the point, by suggesting the creation of a mixed commission +which should make recommendations about the ways and means of +transferring the strips of territory in question. But as the labours +of this commission were not to be restricted in time, and as the +amount to be ceded fell far short of what was demanded, Baron Sonnino +negatived the suggestion. + + [96] Italian Green Book, Dispatch N. 71, April 16, 1915. + +Then and only then did the Italian Government withdraw their +proposals, denounce the Triple Alliance, and proclaim Italy's liberty +of action.[97] + + [97] May 3, 1915. Cf. Italian Green Book, Dispatch N. 76. + +Of this sensational turn of affairs the European public had no +inkling. For the Italian Government was bound to reticence by its +plighted word and the Germans and Austrians by their interest, which +was to foster the belief that the conversations were proceeding +successfully and that Austria's proposals were welcomed by the +Consulta. But Italy, thus absolved from the ties that had so long +linked her with Germany and Austria, entered into a conditional +compact with the Powers of the Entente. In Paris the secret quickly +leaked out and was at once communicated to Berlin, whose organized +espionage continued to flourish in the French capital. Thereupon Herr +Jagow urged Buelow to bestir himself without delay. But the Prince was +hard set. On the Italian Cabinet he had lost his hold. It had already +crossed the Rubicon and passed over to the Entente. True, the Cabinet +was not Italy, was not even the Government of Italy. It was hardly +more than a group of mere place-warmers for Giolitti and his +partisans. At any moment it could be upset and the damage inflicted by +Austria's stupidity made good. And to effect this was the task to +which the German Ambassador now addressed himself. + +He was admirably qualified to discharge it. All Italy, with the +exception of a small band of nationalists and republicans, was his +ally. The Pope was _ex officio_ an apostle of peace. A large body of +the clergy submissively followed the Pope. The Vatican and its +hangers-on were sitting _en permanence_ directing a movement which had +for its object the prevention of war. The parliamentary majority was +aggressively neutralist. The economic interests of the nation were +ranged on the same side. Almost the entire aristocracy was enlisted +under the flag of the German Ambassador, at whose hospitable board the +scions of the men whose names had been honourably associated with the +Risorgimento met and deliberated. As yet, therefore, nothing was lost +to the Central Empires; only a difficulty had been created which would +serve as a welcome foil to impart sharper relief to Prince Buelow's +certain victory. The man whose co-operation would win this victory was +the Dictator Giolitti, and him the Ambassador summoned to Rome. + +Now Giolitti was acquainted with everything that had been done by the +Cabinet, including his country's covenant with the Allies, and he +disapproved of it. He was also initiated by Buelow into the scheme by +which that covenant was to be set aside and Italy made to break her +faith, and he signified his approbation of it. Nay, this patriot went +further; he undertook to aid and abet Buelow in his well-thought-out +plot. It had been resolved by the German Ambassador, as soon as he +learned that Italy had taken an irrevocable decision and denounced the +Treaty of Alliance, that he would amend the proposals which he +himself, in Austria's name, had put forward as the utmost limit to +which she was prepared to go; and he was anxious, before offering them +officially, to ascertain whether Italy's Dictator would accept them +and guarantee their acceptance by his parliamentary majority. + +That was the object for which Giolliti's presence was needed in Rome. +The amended proposals were typewritten and distributed by Erzberger, +the leader of the German Catholic parliamentary party, who was an +over-zealous agent of the Wilhelmstrasse and a _persona grata_ at the +Vatican. He, a German, had gone to Rome to bestir the neutralists and +lead the movement against the Italian Government. His leaflets +containing the belated concessions were given to Giolitti and his +lieutenants. I received a copy myself, and sent it to the _Daily +Telegraph_. The concessions were actually published in that journal +and communicated to the British public before King Victor's +Government, to whom Prince Buelow was accredited, had any cognizance of +their existence. That this procedure involved a gross breach of the +covenant between the Ambassador and Sonnino stipulating the +maintenance of absolute secrecy was deemed an irrelevant +consideration. + +Seldom in modern times have such underhand methods been resorted to by +the Government of a Great Power. Neither would it be easy to find an +example of a responsible statesman behaving as Giolitti behaved and +working in collusion with the Government of a State which at the time +was virtually his country's enemy. This statesman, however, duly +played the part assigned to him in this intrigue against his +Government and country, and the success of his scheme would have left +the Italian nation covered with infamy and bereft of friends. For if +he had been able to conclude the compact with Austria as he had +undertaken to do, his country would have been left to the mercy of his +Austro-German masters, who despise Italy, and probably, if victorious, +would have refused to redeem their promises, while the Entente States +would have boycotted her as faithless and false-hearted. As a dilemma +for Italy the position in which she was placed must have delighted +the wily Buelow. How it can have satisfied an Italian statesman is a +psychological riddle. + +Meanwhile the German Ambassador presented officially Austria's final +proposals, as though the conversations on this subject had not been +broken off. Baron Sonnino refused to discuss them. But the Dictator +intended that his word should be heard and his will should be done. To +the King and the Premier, Giolitti announced that, despite all that +had been accomplished by the Government, he still clung to the belief +that Austria's new concessions offered a basis for further +negotiations, which, if cleverly conducted, would lead to the +acquisition of some other strips of territory, and would certainly +culminate in a satisfactory settlement. + +But, not satisfied with this confidential expression of opinion, +Giolitti let it be known to the whole nation that he, the chief and +spokesman of the parliamentary majority, was convinced of the +feasibility of an accord with Austria on the basis of her last offer, +which he deemed acceptable in principle; that he saw no motives for +plunging Italy into a hideous war, which would involve the nation in +disaster; and that he would adjust his acts to these convictions. + +This deliberate pronouncement, coming from the most prominent man in +the country, had a powerful effect upon his followers and also upon +the public at large. No nation desires war for war's sake, and the +interpretation put upon Giolitti's words by the extreme neutralists +and, in particular, by the insincere organs of the Vatican, was that +he had seen enough to convince him that the Cabinet had decided to +wage war against Germany and Austria at all costs and irrespective of +the nation's interests. Giolitti's parliamentary friends +demonstratively called upon him at his private residence, leaving +their cards, and announcing the conformity of their views to those of +their leader; and as their number, which was carefully communicated to +the Press, formed the majority of the Chamber, the Cabinet felt +impelled to take the hint and act upon it. This was the only course +open to it. For, as the ministers were obliged to meet Parliament on +May 20--the day fixed for its reopening--they were sure to be +out-voted on a division, whereupon a crisis, not merely ministerial +but national and international, would be precipitated. The +consequences of such a conflict might be disastrous. Rather than wait +for this eventuality the Cabinet tendered its resignation. Thus Buelow +had seemingly triumphed. The Government was turned out by Giolitti, +who had accepted in advance the Austro-German terms of a settlement, +and Italy was seemingly won over to the Teutons. + +So far as one could judge, the fate of the nation was now decided. Its +course was marked out for it, and was henceforward unalterable. For, +so far as one could see, by no section of the constitutional machinery +was the strategy of Buelow and Giolitti to be thwarted. In a +parliamentary land the legislatures are paramount, and here both +Chamber and Senate were arrayed against the Cabinet for Giolitti and +Germany. + +The ferment consequent upon this turn of affairs was tremendous. All +Europe was astir with excitement. The Press of Berlin and Vienna was +jubilant. Panegyrics of Giolitti and of Buelow filled the columns of +their daily Press. + +But a _deus ex machina_ suddenly descended upon the scene in the +unwonted form of an indignant nation. The Italian people, which had at +first been either indifferent or actively in favour of cultivating +neighbourly relations with Germany, had of late been following the +course of the struggle with the liveliest interest. Germany's dealings +with Belgium had impressed them deeply. Her methods of warfare had +estranged their sympathies. Her doctrine of the supremacy of force and +falsehood had given an adverse poise to their ideas and leanings. Deep +into their hearts had sunk the tidings of the destruction of the +_Lusitania_, awakening feelings of loathing and abomination for its +authors, to which free expression was now being given everywhere. The +spirit that actuated this revolting enormity was brand-marked as that +of demoniacal fury loosed from moral control and from the ties that +bind nations and individuals to all humanity. + +The effect upon public sentiment and opinion in Italy, where emotions +are tensely strung, and sympathy with suffering is more flexible and +diffusive than it is even among the other Latin races, was +instantaneous. One statesman, who was a partisan of neutrality, +remarked to me that German "Kultur," as revealed during the present +war, is dissociated from every sense of duty, obligation, chivalry, +honour, and is become a potent poison which the remainder of humanity +must endeavour by all efficacious methods to banish from the +international system. + +"This," he went on, "is no longer war; it is organized slaughter, +perpetrated by a race suffering from dog-madness. I tremble at the +thought that our own civilized and chivalrous people may at any moment +be confronted with this lava flood of savagery and destructiveness. +Now, if ever, the opportune moment has come for all civilized nations +to join in protest, stiffened with a unanimous threat, against the +continuance of such crimes against the human race. Europe ought surely +to have the line drawn at the poisoning of wells, the persecution of +prisoners, and the massacre of women and children. If a proposal to +this effect were made, I myself would second it with ardour."[98] + + [98] Cf. _Daily Telegraph_, May 10, 1915. + +These pent-up feelings now found vent in a series of meetings and +demonstrations against Germany as well as Austria and their Italian +allies. Italy's spiritual heritage from the old Romans asserted itself +in impressive forms and unwonted ways, and the conscience of the +nation loudly affirmed its claim to be the main directing force in a +crisis where the honour and the future of the country were at stake. +And within four days of this purgative process a marked change was +noticeable. Giolitti's partisans--hissed, jostled, mauled, frightened +out of their lives--lay low. Many of them publicly recanted and +proclaimed their conversion to intervention. The chief of the German +Catholic party and friend of the Vatican, Erzberger, was driven from +his hotel to the German Embassy as a foreign mischief-maker, +contrabandist and spy. Some of the Press organs, subsidized or created +by the Teutons, were obliged to disappear. The honest neutralist +journals, yielding to the nation, veered round to the fallen Cabinet. +In a word, the political atmosphere, theretofore foul and mephitic, +became suddenly charged with purer, healthier elements--Buelow's plot +was thwarted and Giolitti's role played out. The Salandra-Sonnino +Cabinet was borne back to office on the crest of this national wave, +and Italy declared war against Austria. But only against Austria. For +the Cabinet, restored to power, became a cautious steward, and took to +imitating him of the Gospel who hid his talents instead of augmenting +them. + +This restriction of military operations to the Habsburg Monarchy +struck many observers as singular. In truth the motives that inspired +the Government have never been authoritatively divulged. That every +Italian Cabinet since Crispi's days had made a marked distinction +between Germany and Austria was notorious. That Di San Giuliano felt +as strongly attracted towards Berlin as he was repelled by Vienna may +be gathered from the official but still unpublished dispatches that +exist on the subject. But that in a war not of two individual nations, +but of groups of States, one--and only one--of these should be singled +out as the object of aggression aroused something more than mere +curiosity. And this feeling was intensified when it became known that +on the eve of the diplomatic rupture Buelow, ever on the alert for the +interests of his country, had induced the Italian Government to +conclude a convention with Germany for the protection of private +property in case of active hostilities. For Germany possesses in Italy +property valued at several milliards of francs, whereas Italy claims +as her own almost nothing in the German empire. Who can read the +riddle? + +The adhesion of Italy to the Allies may be noted as perhaps the most +important political event of the year, while the circumstances in +which it was decided on dispel all doubt that the Italian people were +actuated by lofty motives and rose to the highest ideas involved in +the European conflict, and that the Cabinet's ideals were nowise +identical with those of the nation. It is alleged by certain personal +friends of Baron Sonnino, who had exceptionally good opportunities for +knowing what took place--and I have grounds for acquiescing in their +view--that this statesman was for declaring war against Germany as +well as Austria, but that Professor Salandra negatived this logical +and straightforward move. + +That the Salandra Cabinet damaged the cause of Italy by thus +endeavouring to blow hot and cold, is a fact which its warmest +supporters no longer call in question. They now merely plead for +extenuating circumstances on the ground that the damage was done +unwittingly. "It would be unjust," the Nationalist Federzoni said in a +speech delivered before the Chamber on March 16,[99] "to accuse the +Italian Government of disloyalty or insincerity, but none the less the +treaty it concluded with Germany has proved superlatively baleful to +the country." Like the other allied peoples, the Italian nation has +been served by a Cabinet which defeated many of the objects it was +striving after. + + [99] March 16, 1916. + +Studying Italian politics since the war broke out is like threading +the Cretan Labyrinth in a dense fog. The fog, curiously enough, which +now seldom lifts, would seem to form an integral part of the politics. +For one of the maxims of the present chief of the Consulta, Baron +Sonnino, is that secrecy is the soul of efficacy. And as thoroughness +marks his action whenever it is quite free, the mystery that enwraps +the schemes and designs of King Victor's Government is become +impenetrable. One may form a faint notion of the stringency with which +this un-Italian occultism is observed by the eminent Jewish statesman, +from the circumstance that during the crisis that preceded the war, +only one of his colleagues was kept informed of the progress of the +conversations with Austria, and that was his own chief, Professor +Salandra. As for the nation at large, it was so out of touch with the +Government, and so led astray concerning the trend of events, that for +months it confidently anticipated an accord with the Central Empires. +Again, down to the day on which Baron Sonnino read out his last +declaration in the Chamber (Dec. 1), officials of the Ministry had +rigorous instructions not to give any one even a hint as to whether +Italy would or would not sign the London Convention, renouncing the +right to conclude a separate peace. + +For a long time previously Italy's aloofness had preoccupied the +Entente, and to the accord between the two there continued to be +something lacking. The Italian Government, dissatisfied with the +degree of help received from Great Britain, was not slow to indicate +it in official conversations with our Ambassador. Happily, the silence +of our Foreign Office and the secrecy of Baron Sonnino concealed the +rifts of the lute until most of them were said to be repaired. In the +meantime Italy persisted in concentrating on the Isonzo and the Carso +all her efforts to help the Allies against the Turks and the Bulgars. +The expeditions to the Dardanelles, Salonika and Serbia evoked her +moral sympathy, but could not secure her military co-operation. The +generosity of the Entente, and of Britain in particular, towards +Greece was an additional stumbling-block, and the offer of Cyprus to +King Constantine an abomination in her eyes. + +That Italy's impolitic aloofness could not last, without impairing the +worth of her sacrifices, was obvious. And the extent to which +co-operation could be stipulated and the compensations to which that +would entitle her, formed the subjects of long and delicate +conversations between the interested Governments. For, naturally +enough, Baron Sonnino, whose domestic critics are many and ruthless, +was desirous of getting all he could in the Eastern Mediterranean and +Asia Minor, while measuring out with patriotic closeness the military +and naval help to be given in return--Italy's position, economic, +financial and strategic, differing considerably from that of the other +Great Powers. It was not until the end of November 1915 that these +negotiations were worked out to an issue; and on the 30th King +Victor's Government signed the Convention of London, undertaking not +to conclude a separate peace. + +The gist of this supplementary accord, in so far as it imposes fresh +obligations upon Italy, was communicated to the Chamber by Baron +Sonnino. It provided for the organization of relief for the Serbian +troops in Albania, and for other auxiliary expeditions to places on +the Adriatic coast. But it leaves intact the essential and standing +limitations to Italy's military and naval co-operation which had to +be reckoned with theretofore. And these may be summarized as follows: +King Victor's Government, while examining every proposal coming from +the Allies on its political merits, must be guided by the military and +naval experts of the nation whenever it is a question of despatching +troops or warships to take part in a common enterprise. Italy's first +care is to hinder an invasion of her territory. The next object of her +solicitude is to husband her naval and other resources and cultivate +caution. Lastly, the extent of her contribution to an expedition must +be adjusted to her resources, which are much more slender than those +of any other Great Power, and are best known to her own rulers. And +her financial means are to be reinforced by contributions from Great +Britain. + +Those, in brief, are some of the lines on which the latest agreement +has been concluded. + + + + +CHAPTER XVI + +ROUMANIA AND GREECE + + +That Roumania would now take the field was a proposition which, after +the many and emphatic assurances volunteered by her own official +chiefs, was accepted almost universally. She had received considerable +help from the Allies towards her military preparations. Her senators +and deputies had fraternized with Italians and Frenchmen and her +diplomatists had been in frequent and friendly communication with +those of France, Britain and Russia. Even statesmen had allowed +themselves to be persuaded by words and gestures which it now appears +were meant only to be conditional assurances or social lubricants. The +Serbian Premier, for instance, whose shrewdness is proverbial, +exclaimed to an Italian journalist, in the second half of June: +"Roumania cannot but follow the example set her by Italy. Indeed, you +may telegraph to your journal that Roumania's entry into the arena is +a question of days and it may be only of hours. Of this many +foretokens have come to our knowledge."[100] But the optimists who had +drawn practical conclusions from Roumanian promises and friendships +lost sight of the difference between their own mentality and that of +the Balkan peoples. They also failed to make due allowance for the +influence of German interpenetration, the power of German gold, and +the deterrent effect of German victories. And above all, they left out +of consideration the really decisive question of military prospects as +conditioned by strategical position and supplies of munitions. + + [100] _Giornale d'Italia_, June 19, 1915. _Corriere della + Sera_, June 20, 1915. + +The party of intervention, however, was still active and full of +ardour. Its chief, Take Jonescu, is not merely Roumania's only +statesman, but has established a claim to rank as one of the prominent +public men of the present generation. Unluckily he has long been out +of office, and his party is condemned to the Cassandra role of +uttering true prophecies which find no credence among those who wield +the power of putting them to good account. M. Bratiano's appropriate +attitude may be described as statuesque. Occasionally his Press organs +commented upon the manifestations of the interventionists in words +barbed with bitter sarcasm and utilitarian maxims. "Roumania's blood +and money," the _Independence Roumaine_ explained, "must be spent only +in the furtherance of Roumania's interest." Her cause must be +dissociated from that of the belligerents. To this Take Jonescu +replied[101] that it is precisely for the good of Roumania that her +interest should not be separated from that of the Entente Powers in +the conflict. For on the issue of this conflict depends the +state-system of Europe and also the future of Roumania. If the Germans +are triumphant, he added, force and falsehood will triumph with them, +the State will acquire omnipotence, the individual sink into serfdom. +Neutrality during a war with such issues is, therefore, the height of +political unwisdom. + + [101] _La Roumanie_, July 26, 1915. + +Greece, after Venizelos's retirement, returned to the narrow creed and +foolish pranks of her unregenerate days, sinking deeper into anarchy. +More than once in her history she had been saved from her enemies and +once from her friends, but from her own self there is no saviour. + +As soon as the Kaiser's paladin, King Constantine, had dismissed his +pilot and taken supreme command of the Ship of State, the portals of +the realm were thrown open to German machinations. The weaver in chief +of these was Wilhelm's confidential agent, Baron Schenk. According to +his own published biography, this gentleman had in youth been the +friend of the two sisters of Princess Battenberg, the Grand Duchess +Serge and of the Russian Tsaritza. He had served in the German army, +become the representative of the firm of Krupps, and been received at +the German court. While Venizelos was in office, Baron Schenk +flourished in the shade, but as soon as the Germanophile Gounaris took +over the reins of power, the secret agent went boldly forward into the +limelight and became the public chief of a party, received openly his +helpmates and partisans, distributed roles and money and set frankly +to work to "smash Venizelos." + +King Constantine's protracted and strange malady hindered the Queen, +who is the Kaiser's sister, from receiving visits. Even the wives of +ministers were denied access to her Majesty. But the baron was an +exception. He called on her almost every day. Cabinet Ministers +consulted him. Journalists received directions, articles and bribes +from him. And when the elections were coming on every venal man of +influence who could damage Venizelos or help his antagonists was +bought with hard cash. In order to defeat some Venizelist candidates +whose return would have been particularly distressing, the Baron is +said to have spent six hundred thousand francs.[102] And it is held +that the results obtained by these means were well worth the money +spent. For the parliamentary opposition was strong and aggressive, and +some of its more active members had imbibed Hellenic patriotism from +the German Schenk. They have since been toiling and moiling to +disqualify Venizelos permanently from office on the ground that he is +a republican, and that the destinies of monarchy would not be safe in +his hands. By these means German organization, which finds work and +room for kings and for poisoners, for theologians and assassins, has +transformed Greece into a Prussian satrapy which avails itself of the +freedom of the seas, established by the Allies, to carry on contraband +to their detriment and give help and encouragement to Austrians, +Bulgars and Turks. And the Turks were meanwhile extirpating the Greeks +of the coast of Asia Minor. + + [102] _Gazette de Lausanne_, July 6, 1915, and _Corriere + della Sera_, July 8, 1915. + +Bulgaria's attitude underwent no momentous change during the interval +that elapsed between the outbreak of the war and the close of the +first year. Symptoms of a new orientation had, it is true, often been +signalled and commented, but Ferdinand of Coburg and his lieutenants +remained steadfastly faithful to the policy of quiescence which had +conferred more substantial benefits on Germany and Austria than could +have been bestowed by the active co-operation of the whole Bulgarian +army. This tremendous effect could never have been obtained if +Bulgaria had entirely broken with the Powers of the Entente. It seemed +as essential to its success that these should never wholly give up the +hope of winning her over, as it was that her important movements +should be conducive to the interests of their enemies. Hence every +secret arrangement with Berlin and Vienna was emphatically denied, and +every overt accord declared to be devoid of political significance. + +It was thus that Europe was directed to construe the negotiations +between the Sofia Cabinet and the Austro-German financial syndicate +respecting the payment of an instalment of the L20,000,000 loan +contracted shortly before the war. That Germany, whose financial +ventures are invariably combined with political designs, would not +part with her money to Bulgaria at a moment when gold is scarce, +unless she were sure of an adequate political return, could not be +gainsaid. And that the retention by Bulgaria of her freedom of action +would be incompatible with the interests of Austria and Germany is +also manifest. However this may be, the twenty millions sterling +demanded by Sofia were accorded, and the legend was launched that the +transaction was purely financial. + +Towards the end of July[103] King Ferdinand's ministers made another +momentous move, the consequences of which cut deep into the political +situation. A convention was signed in Stamboul between the Turkish and +Bulgarian Governments by which the former ceded to Bulgaria the +Turkish section of the Dedeagatch railway--that is to say, the whole +line that runs on Turkish territory, together with the stations of +Dimotika, Kulela-Burgas, and Karagatch. The new boundary ran +thenceforward parallel to the river Maritza, all the territory +eastward of that becoming Bulgarian. + + [103] July 22, 1915. + +And this concession, King Ferdinand's ministers would have Europe +believe, was devoid of political bearings. It was merely a case of +something being given for nothing. And the Allies allowed themselves +to be persuaded that this was the real significance of the deal. The +German Press was more frank. It announced that the relations between +Bulgaria and Turkey had entered upon a decisive phase and that all +fear of Bulgaria's taking part in the war on the side of the Allies +had been definitely dispelled. + +The Bulgarian problem throughout all that wearisome crisis, which +ended by Ferdinand throwing off the mask, was in reality simple, and +the known or verifiable facts ought to have been sufficient to bring +the judgment of the Entente statesmen to conclusions which would have +enabled them to steer clear of the costly blunders that characterized +their policy. The line of action followed from first to last by +Ferdinand was supremely inelastic: only its manifestations, of which +the object was to deceive, were varied and conflicting. It was bound +up with Austria's undertaking to restore Macedonia to Bulgaria and to +maintain Ferdinand on the throne. This twofold promise was the bait by +which the king was caught and kept in Austria's toils, while the +Bulgarian people was moved by patriotism to identify its cause with +that of Ferdinand. And the arrangement was to my knowledge completed +before the opening of the European war. Evidence of its existence was +forthcoming, but the statesmen of the Entente, who allowed +preconceived notions to overrule the testimony of their senses, +declined to accept it. Since then the Bulgarian Cabinet, in the person +of the Premier, has publicly admitted the truth of my reiterated +statement. In a public speech, delivered in March 1916, "M. +Radoslavoff confessed that Bulgaria had entered the war by reason of +certain obligations which she had assumed."[104] + + [104] Cf. _Daily Telegraph_, March 14, 1916, in telegram from + Athens. + +But there was another safe test which the Entente Governments could +have applied with profit to the situation. Interest was obviously the +mainspring of the Bulgarian nation by whomsoever it might chance to be +represented. It would be inconsistent with the conception of +international politics to assume any other. Now that interest, it was +obvious, could be so fully and rapidly furthered by the Central +Empires, and in the judgment of the Bulgars with such finality and at +the cost of so few sacrifices, that it was sheer impossible for the +Entente Governments to attempt to compete with those. Bulgaria +demanded immediate possession of Central Macedonia and the permanent +weakening of the Serbian State. And this the Central Empires promised +to effect within a few weeks from Bulgaria's entry into the war. +Moreover, while asking that she should take part in a struggle against +that group of belligerents which she deemed by far the weaker, they +undertook to give her the full support of the two greatest military +Powers in the world. + +Consider the difference between that arrangement and the attractions +provided by the Entente. Russia, France and Britain could deal only in +counters, not in hard cash like their adversaries. The utmost they +were able to offer was an undertaking to use their good offices with +Serbia and Greece to obtain the promise of a part of Bulgaria's +demands. And the fulfilment of this promise would of necessity be +conditional on the victory of the Allies. As for the weakening of +Serbia, it could not be entertained. On the contrary, that State, +according to the Entente scheme, would be greatly enlarged, would, in +fact, become by far the greatest of the Balkan nations. And for this +shadowy lure, Bulgaria was expected to meet in deadly encounter the +greatest military empires the world has ever seen, and to meet them +without the help of any of the Great Powers of the Entente. + +One has but to compare these two alternatives in order to realize +that, even if Ferdinand had entered into no binding compact with +Austria and Germany, he would not hesitate a moment between them. +Personally and politically he was held tight by the Teuton tentacles. + +The currency of the notion that with these competing offers before +him, a crafty statesman like Ferdinand who felt over and above that +Russia's vengeance was hanging over his head, would take what he +believed was the losing side, shows a degree of _naivete_ which cannot +be qualified without epithets which it had better be understood than +expressed. + +Looking back upon the results of the first twenty months of the war +and upon the more obvious causes to which they may fairly be +ascribed, one is struck less forcibly by the military and economic +unpreparedness of the Allies for the inevitable conflict than by their +inaccessibility to the ground ideas on which Germany set her hopes of +success. The two groups of belligerents stood intellectually on +different planes. The Teuton's faith was implicit in the law of +causality, in the necessity of contemplating the vast problem as a +whole, of adjusting means to ends, of co-operation at home and +co-ordination of means abroad. The methods of the Allies were drawn +from a limited range of experience which was no longer applicable to +the new conditions, and their hopes rested on a series of isolated +exertions put forth temporarily under stress of exceptional pressure. + +They made noble sacrifices for the cause of liberty and justice. +Pacific by temperament and conviction, they resignedly accepted +military discipline as a temporary expedient, a purgatorial ordeal, +and went about the while with a sense of displacement, the longing of +exiles to get back. Spurred by stress of circumstance, they achieved +more than foresight and insight had led them to design but far less +than their optimism had encouraged them to anticipate. Step by step +they were driven by hard reality to widen their angle of vision, to +extend their schemes, and to concert certain measures in common. The +meeting of the three Finance Ministers in Paris was followed by the +Councils of the allied generals, by the combined expedition to the +Dardanelles, and by the nationalization of the manufacture of +munitions in each of the allied countries. And all these innovations +were moves in the right direction. But they were made as temporary +expedients under pressure of outward events, and it is still to the +future that one looks for tokens of statesmanlike intuition which from +a comprehensive survey of the problem in its entirety will draw the +materials wherewith to weave a coherent scheme of general action and +permanent co-operation. + +Events travelled fast in the month of July 1915, and their effect on +the Allies was depressing. In Russia the Austro-Germans were advancing +steadily against Riga and Warsaw, where a battle which experts +accounted the most sanguinary and momentous in the war was approaching +a decision. A fatal bar being placed by Russia's reverses and other +untoward occurrences to the realization of the hopes that had been +raised by Kitchener's army, the French, headed by M. Pichon and backed +by the Russian Press, once more mooted the vexed question of Japanese +intervention. In the Turkish dominions the Greeks were subjected to +relentless persecution, especially on the coast of Asia Minor. The +massacre of Armenians on an unprecedented scale was reported from +Bitlis, Moosh, Diarbekir and Zeitun. In the first-named region 9,000 +bodies, mostly women and children, were, it is alleged, cast into the +river Tigris.[105] The Swedish Premier, by an enigmatic speech in +which the doctrine of neutrality at all costs was ostentatiously +repudiated, aroused suspicion of an intention on the part of his +Government to join the Teutons in order to weaken the Slav neighbour, +and to this apprehension colour was imparted by the tardy announcement +that since the outbreak of the war Sweden had increased her army from +360,000 to 500,000 men. In the United States mysterious "accidents" +and mishaps occurred on board warships and in munitions and arms +manufactories, and strikes were organized by Germans and Austrians on +a scale which attracted the serious attention of the Washington +Government. + + [105] _Novoye Vremya_, July 22, 1915. + +But the last month of that fateful year was further darkened by the +most dangerous and ominous event recorded in the United Kingdom since +the war began. Over 200,000 coal miners of South Wales deliberately, +obstinately and criminally withheld their labour from their own +nation, whose existence at that moment was dependent on its bestowal. +The coal pits of South Wales remained idle for over a week. The miners +crossed their arms and turned deaf ears to the voice of reason and +interest calling on them not to sacrifice the lives of their kith and +kin who were fighting for them. This act of black treason to the +country had been foreseen and foretold months before, but out of +consideration for the rights of individuals was allowed to take place. +The Germans and Austrians were exultant, for another couple of weeks' +strike would have given them the victory. Already the collapse of our +defence was become a definite eventuality. The tact and statesmanship +of Mr. Lloyd George exorcised the redoubtable spectre, but the spirit +which that piece of treason revealed filled the most sanguine with +dread and set those of little faith asking themselves whether this +lamentable phenomenon was not one of certain ill-boding symptoms which +seemed to reveal the smoothly moving current that bears doomed nations +onward to their fate. + +Certainly nothing could put in a clearer light than that strike has +done the peremptory necessity of national discipline, at any rate in +war-time. The State that is unable to command the service of all its +citizens when beset by ruthless foreign enemies has lost its lease of +life and its right to live. It must be recognized that patriotism is +still an unknown sentiment among millions of those who are citizens of +the United Kingdom and Ireland. Patriotism has never been +systematically inculcated among us as in Germany, France and Russia. +Parochial or at most party interests still mark the loftiest heights +to which certain sections of the population can soar above the dead +level of individual egotism. In Germany and Austria strikes during war +are unthinkable. Every railway official, every tram-conductor, every +artisan there is a soldier subject to military discipline and is +expected to give the fullest measure of his productive powers to the +nation. And it is fair to add that they all regard this duty as a +signal honour and a source of pleasure. For to them patriotism is a +religion and their country a divinity. + +The depth and fervour of this self-denying spirit among them as +contrasted with the "healthy individual egotism" of the Allies +constitutes one of the most disquieting phenomena of the struggle. +Austria has been scoffed at for her abject submissiveness to Germany. +But there is another way of looking at her attitude. She has +courageously effaced her individuality more completely even than +Turkey for the sake of the common cause. And she has lost nothing by +the painful effort. Her various peoples who were expected to be +tearing each other to pieces have given us a splendid example of +discipline and self-abnegation. In the Skoda works at Pilsen, where +machine guns are made, fifteen thousand workmen are cheerfully toiling +and moiling every day of the week, Sundays and holidays not excepted. +Since the war began Germany has accomplished as great things at home +as on foreign battlefields. She built and launched a Dreadnought of +25,600 tons, a line-of-battle ship of 26,200 tons. And while the +latter vessel was on the stocks, the reports published in the British +press of the splendid results obtained by the 15-inch guns of the +_Queen Elizabeth_ moved the German Admiralty to substitute these for +the 12-inch guns already adopted. Two swift cruisers, 12 small +submarines and 24 larger ones of 1200 tons displacement, with a speed +of 16 knots under water, 20 on the surface and a radius of action of +3000 miles--were among the results of a single year's activity. + + + + +CHAPTER XVII + +GERMANY'S RESOURCEFULNESS + + +And our enemies' resourcefulness and power of adaptation is of a piece +with their capacity for work. When war was declared and foreign trade +arrested, numerous German factories underwent a quick transformation. +Silk-works began to turn out bandages and lint; velvet works produced +materials for tents; umbrella makers took to manufacturing rain-proof +cloth; the output of sewing-machine factories was changed to shrapnel; +piano manufacturers became makers of cartridges. Paper producers +supplied the War Office with paper-made blankets. For copper, when the +supply began to grow short, nickelled iron was quickly substituted. +Sugar was employed to obtain the spirit which had to take the place of +benzine. And the upshot of these transformations is that the orders +received for military needs exceed those which would in normal +conditions of exportation have been placed by foreign customers with +German industry. The goods traffic on German railways, which had +fallen to 41 per cent. during the first month of the war, has since +gone up to 96 per cent. Those achievements are not merely noteworthy +in themselves, they are ominously symptomatic. + +A German professor, writing to a friend imprisoned in France, +commented in passing upon these qualifications of his countrymen in a +letter which M. Joseph Reinach soon afterwards gave to the public. One +passage in that document is worth quoting. The professor holds that +even if the worst comes to the worst, Germany can always conclude a +"white peace" which will leave her the formidable glory of having held +the whole world in check, will consolidate her prestige in Europe and +enable her, twenty years hence, when she has made good her losses, to +establish permanently her dominion. "My confidence is based on German +patriotism, on German sense of discipline, on German genius for +organization. But it is founded above all else on our enemies' +incapacity for organization. Ah, if our adversaries could enhance the +worth of their resources by acquiring our gifts of initiative and +method, we should be lost! I am thrilled by the picture of what we +could accomplish if we were in the places of the English and the +French and by the thought of the danger that would confront us if they +but knew how to utilize the force of their allies as we have availed +ourselves of those of Austria and Turkey." + +Those reflections find their fairest comment in the events of the +twenty months that have passed since the opening of the campaign. + +Our enemies' reading of those events is instructive. The Austrian +Press hails them as satisfactory. Even the Socialist organ[106] +declares that, in the qualities that go to the attainment of success, +"Austria holds the first place." The Austrian General Staff wrote +eight months ago: "Our troops have now been fighting for a +twelvemonth.... A whole world of enemies rose up against the Central +Empires, and more than once our army had to bear the brunt of their +formidable onslaught. To-day, they hold but small tracts of territory +in western Galicia and Alsatia, whereas Germany's hand is closed in a +tight grasp on Belgium and the richest provinces of France, and in the +north-east the allied forces of Austria and Germany have penetrated +well into Russian Poland. The cannons' muzzles are turned against the +most powerful fortresses of the Tsar, and in the Dardanelles our third +ally keeps watch and ward imperturbably." + + [106] _Arbeiter Zeitung._ + +The War Lord himself has recorded his estimate of the results of the +first year's campaign. "Germany," he stated in a speech delivered at +Lemberg, "is an impregnable fortress. In her forward march she is +irresistible. She will prove to the world that she can overcome all +her enemies and will dictate to them the peace terms that please +herself." And in a discourse pronounced at Beuthen he recorded his +view of the Allies' outlook in these words: "Our enemies are +floundering in confusion. Among themselves they are not united. They +are disorganized by the struggle, disheartened by the knowledge that +they are powerless to conquer Germany. German valour, German +organization, German science have emerged with honour from this +ordeal, the most terrible that a nation has ever undergone. Germany is +greater and mightier than ever before." + +It behoves us to learn from our enemies, and, abstraction made from +the monstrosities which are indelibly associated with the German name, +there is much which the Teutons can still teach us. That the secret of +success lies in a comprehensive system of organization is +self-evident. But that organization must utilize all the resources of +the Allies and include permanent arrangements, economic and other, for +a future which shall not be a continuation of the past. Many of the +advantages which the old ordering of things assured us are gone beyond +recall. Conscription is become inevitable. Free trade is an +institution of the past. The control of armies in the field by +delegates of a democratic parliament such as is now demanded by the +French Chamber is a dangerous craving for the fleshpots of Egypt. +Whether Germany wins or loses, her rebellion against European +civilization will effect substantial and durable changes in the +methods of that civilization from which even the United States will +not be exempted. + +Thus between the old order of things and the new yawns an abyss which +has to be crossed before we can worst our enemies even in the military +campaign which is but one phase of the world-struggle. Our resources +for the purpose of bridging it are ample, but our first difficulty is +the circumstance that we are chained to the old system and are still +unwilling to burst the bonds that hold us. And until efficacious means +of effecting this are adopted the end must remain unattainable. +Victory will not descend on our camp like a manna from on high. The +Allied Armies do not resemble the mulberry tree which, having long +lagged behind its rivals, suddenly bursts into fruit as well as +flower. + +During the past twenty months the Allies in general, and the British +in particular, have achieved feats of which they have reason to be +proud--feats which two years ago seemed beyond the compass of human +effort. But, much as we have done, we have not reached, nor indeed +attempted to reach, the limits of our capacities, and the story of +these memorable twenty months of struggle is dimmed by the shadow of +the vaster exploits from which we have unaccountably shrunk. + +The old-world social conceptions still prevalent in Great Britain +afford no standard by which to gauge the significance of the crisis +through which Europe is passing, nor do they provide efficacious means +of satisfying the pressing needs which it has created. Yet the +nation's guides perceive nothing to change in those conceptions; on +the contrary, they uphold them zealously. No event has occurred in +modern times of greater concern to Europe than the unleashing of +disruptive forces which threaten when the war is over to break up the +politico-social fabric. Now, the mere prospect of this tremendous +upheaval and of its sequel is, one would fancy, calculated to arouse +the spirited interest of all the nations affected. Yet in Great +Britain, whose very existence it menaces, it was at first received +with such unmeaning comments as "business as usual." The alertness of +the people's sensations--always inconsiderable--for volcanic outbursts +which have their centre abroad, has never been quite so blunted as +to-day. + +Germany cultivates force not for its own sake but because it happens +to suit her particular purpose. For this reason she preaches the +doctrines that right and might are identical, that the end hallows the +means, that military and political necessity overrule treaties and +laws. For as violence and cunning may still gain triumphs, under the +conditions that once rendered them the only weapons of man, Germany's +first step is to bring about such conditions and to spread faith in +the teachings of the new gospel. What the success of these efforts +would involve is evident. All the ground slowly and painfully +reclaimed from the primitive state of nature, transmuted into social +order, and moralized by the altruistic accord of progressive humanity, +would be submerged by the tidal wave of Teutonism. + +The first clash of the two forces which took place a generation ago +was hardly noticed. Germany stretched out her feelers tenderly, and +even when she was draining nation after nation of its life juices, she +took care to lull the patient while sucking his blood. Accordingly her +attack provoked no counter-attack, nay, there was no serious attempt +at defence. Those who directed the forces of the civilized communities +were unconscious of the counter-force that was steadily undermining +these--so unconscious that in lieu of isolating and paralysing it, the +tendency of their endeavours was to further and to strengthen it. For +they hastily assumed that it, too, was a great moral force in an +uncouth guise and should also be tended and cultivated. Their duty, +had they hearkened to its promptings, would have been to employ +towards the criminal plotters against Europe's civilized communities +coercion of the same drastic description that once enabled mankind to +substitute for the barbarous usages of savage tribes the habits of +social relationship and moral self-surrender to the weal of all. Among +the mainstays of Germany's type of society and the instruments by +which it was built up are heavy artillery, mighty armies, the gallows, +bribery and guile. With some of those arms she had opened the +campaign of conquest a quarter of a century ago, and of that campaign +the present war, unexampled though it be, is but an acute and +transient episode. This would appear to be the only true reading of +contemporary events. + +Few careful students of European politics will now deny that the +struggle between the forces for which Teutonism stands and those on +which the social ordering of the rest of Europe is based was +inaugurated long ago, that the ground was then cleared for the new +politico-social structure, or that the dissolution of our "effete, +drowsy States, saturated with wealth and honeycombed with +hypocrisies," was carefully planned and taken in hand with scientific +precision. It is equally clear, to those who have eyes to see, that +the present clash of nations, despite its appalling effects on +civilization, is but an acuter phase of that campaign, a series of +incidents in a mighty struggle which neither began in July 1914 nor +will end with the close of hostilities, but will rage on for years to +come in less sanguinary but more decisive forms. For the future +peace--whatever its terms--which will silence the cannon's boom, will +but transfer the war theatre without ending the war. The methods will +be changed from military to economic. But only the weapons will be +different; the military discipline, the callous indifference to the +dictates of human and divine law, the utter absence of scruple will +continue to characterize the tactics of our enemy, who will then have +a wider scope for his activities than the battlefield can offer. The +German has no match among the allied nations in the regions of the new +diplomacy, trade, industry, applied science, insidious journalism and +vast organization. He is incomparably better equipped than they, and +owing to his amorality has none of those obstacles to contend with +which so often confront them with scruples and check their advance. + +And during the progress of the present war the Teutons are making +ready for that economico-political duel which will, they hope, give +them the decisive superiority for which they had vainly hoped from the +war. That hope, if their experience of the past thirty years be a fair +indication, is by no means groundless. + +Not to realize these facts to-day is to play into the hands of our +enemies, as we have been steadfastly doing during the past thirty +years. The British and their allies are being overcome less by German +skill and cleverness than by their own sluggishness, narrowness of +outlook and love of ease. As the German professor, whose utterances I +have already quoted, tersely put it: "My confidence is founded above +all else on our enemies' incapacity for organization." In truth, it is +not inborn incapacity to which we owe our unquestioned inferiority, +but to the atrophy of will-power which is one of the consequences of +years of egotism, overweening confidence, self-indulgence and the loss +of an inspiring social faith. + +Now, there is every reason to assume that these master facts are not +yet recognized by our rulers, who seem perfectly contented that the +nation should go on living as before from hand to mouth, with no +far-reaching views for the future. This insular narrow-mindedness is +natural. For the Ministers in power are the same who obstinately +refused to credit the evidence of their senses, which went to prove +that Germany was bending all her energies to the successful +prosecution of a formidable campaign against us and our presumptive +allies for a whole generation. The frank recognition of this state of +masked hostility would have imposed on the Government the correlate +duty of taking up the challenge, readjusting our public life to the +altered conditions, urging the nation to make heavy sacrifices and +dissatisfying radical constituencies, whose one ideal is to devote +themselves exclusively to parochial policy and domestic legislation. +And the chiefs of the party in power lacked the mental and moral +strength to throw off their deep-rooted apprehension of the +consequences to party prospects, of increased taxation and other +burdens of citizenship. They never grasped the situation as a whole, +but restricted their survey to each fragmentary question as it was +thrust into the foreground of actualities and eliminated every other. + + + + +CHAPTER XVIII + +THE PERILS OF PARTY POLITICS + + +No bold, broad, stable policy, therefore, was ever conceived by those +party politicians. The vast organization which was destined to destroy +the old order of things in Europe, and whose manifestations were an +open book to all observers who brought acuteness and patience to the +study, was not merely ignored by them--its very existence was denied, +and those who refused to join the ranks of the deniers were +brand-marked as mischief-makers. The nation's responsible trustees, by +way of justifying this singular attitude, accepted implicitly our +enemy's account of his unfriendly acts and enterprises. Thus it was +the chief of His Majesty's Government who, from his place in the House +of Commons, emphatically asserted that it behoved the British nation +to welcome the Baghdad railway enterprise as a precious cultural +undertaking devoid of political objects and, therefore, well worthy of +our support. In vain the writer of these lines laid bare the real +designs of the German Government, and adduced cogent proofs that the +seemingly cultural scheme was but an integral part of a vast campaign, +of which one object was the ousting of Britons from the Near and +Middle East and the substitution of German overlordship there. They +shut their eyes and stopped their ears, and bade us rejoice that +Britain is not as other countries and can afford to welcome and even +further Germany's "cultural" projects. + +It was our party politicians who, when the ground-swell of +international anger and the premonitory rumble of volcanic forces +became audible, diverted public attention from the symptoms and +solemnly assured their countrymen that Germany had no intention of +going to war. To the author of these pages, who was at the pains of +unfolding in private his information and conclusions on this subject +to one of those leaders, the answer given ran thus: "Your intentions +are patriotic and your accuracy of observation is probably scientific. +But your conclusions are wholly erroneous. You must admit that you are +a pessimist. Nor can you deny that we members of the Cabinet dispose +of fuller and more decisive data for a judgment than you, with all +your opportunities, can muster. After all, we do know something of the +temper of the German Government. And we have cogent grounds for +holding that neither the Kaiser nor his Ministers want war. Bethmann +Hollweg is the most pacific chancellor Germany has ever had. And the +German people, bellicose though you think them, are to the full as +peace-loving as our own. Their one desire is to be allowed to vie with +us in commercial and industrial pursuits. So true is this, that if we +suppose the improbable, that the Kaiser's Government should feel +disposed to bring about a European war, that design would be thwarted +by the Reichstag backed by the bulk of the population." + +Thus the men who presided over the destinies of the British Empire +either had no eye for the triumphant progress of the German campaign +that had been going forward for years unchecked, or, if they discerned +any of its episodes, saw them only through the softening and +distorting medium of deceptive assurances and explanations emanating +from Berlin. And on the strength of these illusive phrases they kept +the country in a state of unpreparedness for the military form of the +struggle for which our enemy was making ready, and if they had had +their way our navy--which was our anchor of salvation--would also +perhaps have been shorn of its strength. + +When at last the war broke out, it was our party politicians, the men +to whom we still look up for light and guidance, who misinterpreted +its nature and underestimated the urgent needs of the Empire. It was +they who conceived the campaign as though it were one of our +occasional colonial expeditions, and would fain base the strength of +our land army abroad on the small number of troops which the +Government had conditionally undertaken to provide. And throughout the +first sixteen months of the war, it was they who went on doling out +contingents with Troy weights and measures like Mrs. Partington +beating back the tidal waves with a mop. It was they, too, who were at +extraordinary pains and risked their prestige, to throw away the +splendid privileged position which, at the outset of the struggle, we +chanced to occupy in South-Eastern Europe. Every blunder into which +petty municipal minds could fall when confronted with a wild +revolutionary welter, marked the hesitant policy of the British +Government. This aimless chaos of soul was the main cause of the +woeful waste of our political advantages and enormous resources in +the accomplishment of secondary ends which generally led nowhere. It +was thus that they forfeited the active support of Turkey, Bulgaria +and Greece, foolishly stood by applauding every step those nations +took towards the camp of our enemies, and then felt constrained to +turn to their own people whom they had unwittingly misled and call +upon it for the sacrifice of the flower of its manhood. + +It was they who sacrificed, through sheer administrative incapacity, +the decided superiority over the Teutons which we enjoyed in the air +at the outset of the war. It is now admitted that our mastery in that +region was then complete. All that the country demanded of them was +that they should hold it. But what with divided control, restricted +views, and the policy of insufficient means--_petits paquets_--as the +French term it, they allowed our enemies to outstrip us. And to-day in +the air as on land it is the Germans who have the initiative and the +Allies who are condemned to the defensive. Yet experts had pointed out +over and over again what should be done and what avoided. Their advice +was obviously sound and their criticism obviously irrefutable. But the +men in power fumbled and floundered on until we had forfeited our +mastery in the air to our enemies. And ever since then the nation has +been paying the penalty. Yet it is to the men responsible for these +costly blunders that the nation still looks for salvation! + +It was the same men who conceived or sanctioned the plan of an +expedition to Mesopotamia. Whether this was a wise or a foolish +project, when once decided upon it should have been carried out with +might and main. All the means requisite to success should have been +taken; all the resources possessed by the Empire should have been +drawn upon and nothing needlessly left to chance. Above all things +else, the views of the man charged with the execution of the plan +should have been elicited and carefully weighed. As a matter of fact, +General Townshend's judgment was decidedly adverse to the expedition +under the conditions in which it was planned. For the forces assigned +to him, amounting to far less than a division, were absurdly +inadequate, and their inadequacy was easily demonstrable. He ought to +have had at least two divisions more. But once again the game of +divided control and diluted responsibility was played, with +consequences which would in any other country suffice to wreck the +Government chargeable with the blunder. + +Yet it is to the men who committed that and all the other blunders +that the nation still looks confidently for salvation! + +If the British people finally obtain it under those leaders they may +fairly claim to have abrogated the law of cause and effect. + +These same men are still the mentors and the spokesmen of a free +nation which can choose its leaders. It is they to whom the people has +entrusted the conduct of the most critical phase of the whole campaign +in which the recurrence of similar errors may foredoom the Empire to +disruption. And it is, humanly speaking, inconceivable that +miscalculations of that kind should be eliminated, in view of the +crucial fact that the Ministers at present in power, if we may judge +by their utterances and their acts, entertain a fundamentally false +conception of the relations between the Teutons and the allied +nations. Among the elements of that conception there would seem to be +no room for the historic past. The present stands by itself with a +history that goes no further back than the month of July 1914, and +will convulsively come to an end with the truce that ushers in the +future treaty of peace. For that diplomatic instrument will put an end +to the struggle and inaugurate an era of international tranquillity. +Such is the theory on which their entire policy is based. + +We must fight on now to a _finish_, but the upshot is sure to be a +finish. Their anticipations of an unclouded dawn, when the present +night has worn itself into the streaky greyness of morning, are +certain to come to pass. The ordeal which we are undergoing is +tremendous, but at any rate the nation and its allies will emerge from +it rejuvenated under the spell of the present magicians, as the old +ram emerged lamb-like and frisky from Medea's cauldron. That, in +brief, would seem to be the picture in the mind's eye of the British +Government, and to that conception all their plans are being +accommodated. + +As a matter of ascertainable fact, neither we nor our Allies have +anything of the kind to hope for. In the near future the present +campaign will have come to a close, but not the struggle between +ourselves and our Teuton aggressors. For this war, far from ending the +tragic duel between the two types of community life in Europe, is but +one of its transient episodes. The trial of strength began many years +ago and will not be decided for many years to come, how satisfactory +so ever the terms of the future peace may be to ourselves and our +Allies. This is a fundamental truth which has not yet penetrated the +consciousness of either rulers or people. And for that reason the +problem awaiting them is mis-stated, belittled. According to the +received version it is to beat back German aggression and render it +impossible in the future. Now, however successfully the first part of +the task may be discharged--and it is still very uphill work--the +second is a sheer impossibility, and to lay our plans as though it +were feasible and soon to be realized, is to embark on the body of a +sleeping whale in the belief that it is an island in the sea. And to +negotiate peace abroad and give an impulse to politics at home, with +that comforting prospect in mind, is to lead the nation into a +Serbonian bog whence no escape is possible. The leaders of Great +Britain are so permeated with the duties, the rights, the hopes and +the strivings of parliamentary parties, that they involuntarily think +in terms of home politics and have no chord in their being responsive +to the emotions that sway the German soul and nerve the German arm. + +To the average mind it is clear that the terms on which peace might be +negotiated, if the end of the war were also to be the end of the +struggle, might differ considerably from those on which a statesman +would properly insist, were he convinced that the sheathing of the +sword marked but the opening of a new phase of the duel. And it is +this alternative which it behoves us to lay at the foundation of our +peace treaty, if it should rest with the Allies to impose their terms. +The problem, therefore, which a Government that governs has to tackle, +is twofold: the conclusion of such a peace as will confer on the +Entente States, individually and collectively, all possible +advantages, not for contemplating such a tranquil state of things as +the ministerial conception postulates, but for the prosecution of the +struggle with the greatest chances of success, and for the +reconstruction of the social fabric at home with a view to harmonizing +it with the new requirements, and, in particular, with the needs +created by the constant state of economic, financial, diplomatic and +journalistic warfare in which we shall be engaged. The social ordering +of Great Britain must be not merely modified but remodelled and +rebuilt from the groundwork to the coping-stone. One of the first +needs of the nation is the education, physical and spiritual, of the +new generation. Patriotic sentiment must be engrafted on the receptive +soul of the child, and its range of sympathy widened and deepened. The +duty of self-abnegation for the welfare of the community must be +inculcated, together with new conceptions of personal dignity and +worth. To the domestic sentiment in those cramped and distorted forms +in which it still survives in Britain, where we cling tenaciously to +so many institutions devoid of life and utility, a less commanding +part must be assigned in the future than heretofore. Above all, it +behoves us to encourage the scientific spirit with its correlates, +patient thought and study, as opposed to the arrogant amateurism +which, without rudimentary qualifications, claims to have a voice in +the solution of every problem under the sun. It is largely to this +dilettante temperament of the nation and its rulers that we owe the +disasters we have sustained and the dangers with which we are +threatened. + +Looking back, then, dispassionately upon the movement, deliberately +organized over thirty years ago by the restless German mind and pushed +steadily forward ever since over diplomatic barriers, financial +hindrances, economic obstacles and international laws, one is struck +less by the unparalleled magnitude of the enterprise than by the +blindness and sluggishness of its destined victims. And it is largely +in these and kindred negative qualities that we have to seek for the +clue to the astonishing sequence of successes scored by our enemies in +their military and naval, as well as their politico-economic, +campaigns. Moreover, these same defects, deep-rooted and widespread +among the allied peoples, constitute their main source of weakness +during the economic and decisive tug-of-war which will be ushered in +by the treaty of peace. For the temperament, traditions and strivings +of each of these nations are so many obstacles to the gathering of +their scattered moral energies and wasted spiritual forces in one +fertilizing stream. They are bent on joining incompatible elements in +a political synthesis. In the name of national independence and by way +of a telling protest against the vassalage which binds Austria to +Germany, the Entente nations spurn the notion of any common accord +which requires the practice of self-surrender as a base, and are +resolved under the strain of circumstance to present such a +loosely-joined front to the enemy as will not involve their foregoing +one iota of their freedom or one tittle of their national claims. How, +in these conditions, they expect ever to rise to that height of moral +fervour without which the quasi-ascetic effort demanded of them is +inconceivable, has not yet been explained. As usual, they count upon +effects without causes, upon an ingathering of the harvest with no +preceding seedtime. Now, interdependence and compromise are the +indispensable conditions of that cohesion which alone can engender the +force required. A condition approaching organic coherency must be +attained before a smooth working system can be created among the +Allies. But as each of them is still rooted to the past, permeated by +its own interests and aspirations, and jealous not only of the +substance of its liberty but also of the shadow, the distance yet to +be traversed before the goal can be reached is enormous, and the road +rugged and beset with pitfalls. + +A glance at the past and present may enable us to gauge aright the +nature of some of the difficulties that have to be surmounted in the +future. + + + + +CHAPTER XIX + +PAST AND PRESENT + + +Let us begin with the present, in view of the circumstance that the +war has brought the allied peoples into a much nearer approach to +union and has more fully systematized their efforts than can ever be +the case in peace time. We find, then, two groups of belligerents +pitted against each other, whose resources in men, money and economic +supplies are strikingly unequal. The Teutons are by far the weaker +side, and even in spite of their long preparations ought to have been +thoroughly beaten long ago. So evident and encouraging was the +comparison that the Entente nations themselves boldly grounded their +calculations on it, and anticipated a brief spell of warfare and a +decisive victory. And this forecast seemed reasonable enough when the +material elements were weighed and contrasted. The Entente communities +occupy 68,031,000 square kilometres of territory, which are inhabited +by a population of 770,060,000, or say 46 per cent. of the entire land +on the globe and 47 per cent. of the entire human race. The Central +Empires, on the other hand, possess no more than 5,921,000 square +kilometres with 150,199,000 inhabitants, which amounts to only 4 per +cent. of dry land on the globe and 9.1 per cent. of mankind. Add to +that the circumstance that in the air our superiority over our +enemies was undisputed, and that the odds in favour of our enlisting +the active support of the Balkan States were overwhelming. The chances +in favour of the Allies, therefore, were and are enormous. That being +so, why, it may well be asked, has the course of the military, naval +and air campaign so uniformly favoured the weaker side? It is no +answer to point out that Germany and Austria had been organizing the +war for over thirty years, or had contrived to mobilize all their +resources when the first shot was fired. That explanation would +account for their progress during the first few months, but not for +the victories they scored down to the beginning of April 1916. It was +loudly proclaimed by British journalists that the Berlin General Staff +had based its plan on the assumption that the struggle would be +decided in a few months and certainly by the end of 1914. And the +inference was drawn that as this time-table was upset, Germany was so +bewildered that she could hardly draw up another plan and adjust her +forces to that. She had shot her bolt, we were assured, had missed the +target, and it was beyond her power to put forth another effort. But +events refuted these false prophets, without, however, greatly +impairing their credit with the multitude. They still continue to +describe Germany's dire straits and foretell her speedy collapse. And +they are listened to with eagerness and trust. + +In truth the root of the matter lies deeper. One of the most telling +factors, in every armed conflict between peoples, consists of the sum +total of imponderabilia which elude analysis. Intellectual and moral +equipment, as I ventured to write when the war began, sometimes +counts for more than battalions. And I instanced the Russo-Japanese +campaign as a case in point. One belligerent may regard the campaign +as a temporary calamity to be endured until it can be conveniently got +rid of, while another may gird his loins and go forth to battle +exultant like the fanaticized warriors of Cromwell. The former will +contemplate the struggle and regulate the conduct of it in the light +of immediate expediency, while the latter will treat the war as a +life-task and boldly throw the weight of everything he has, and is, +and hopes for into the blows he deals his adversary. Now in this +struggle the Teuton is the fanaticized warrior. He is fighting for an +ideal, which, whether or no he understands it, he caresses and deems +his very own. The hopes and dreams of the leaders of the nation have +been communicated to the individual citizen, who, having lived for +them, is ready to die for them. Our people, on the other hand, have +never enjoyed that education in patriotism which is bestowed on every +Teuton, and they are wanting in the strength of imagination, the +spirit of cohesion and the energizing social faith which might have +made up for the deficiency. + +Then, again, over against the Allies' inexhaustible resources we must +put the marvellous capacity for organization which intensifies those +of our enemy. The nearest known approach to it is found in the +Japanese, who, there is little doubt, if pressed by circumstance, +would match the Teuton in resourcefulness and even outdo him in the +spirit of self-sacrifice. To this precious asset in Germany's leaders +corresponds a superlative degree of docility and self-surrender in her +people which offer a striking contrast to the strongly marked +individualist tendencies of the British, French and Russian races. +Nay, one may go farther and assert that the central streams of +national life in each of these countries flows in channels of party +politics, which no influential leader has ever attempted to deepen or +widen. The German, on the contrary, as we saw, associates his every +work and undertaking with ideas of almost cosmic breadth and is +actuated by interests to which all the larger problems of humanity are +akin. And he took timely possession of every lever that might +contribute to the success of his revolt against Europeanism, when his +far-reaching scheme was yet in the early phases of execution. + +Everything that human foresight could think of was carefully studied, +everything that human ingenuity could provide for was thoroughly +effected and systematized. Royal dynasties were founded abroad by +German princes. German colonies settled in Russia, Poland, Palestine +and Brazil. German schools were opened in Roumania, Spain, Asia Minor, +the Ottoman Empire, the Tsardom. Foreign newspapers were bought or +subsidized. Protestant sects with pro-German tendencies were +encouraged. Banks were founded with Entente capital and employed to +ruin the trade of the nations that subscribed it. Colonies of +mechanics, clerks, middlemen were settled in every European country +and colony and obtained control of the nation's industries and trade. +Special legislation was enacted in Berlin to enable the German to +become a foreign subject in externals while bound by all the duties of +a citizen of his own country. + +As the hour for the military and naval struggle was drawing near +intestine strife was industriously stirred up in all those countries +whose rivalry the Germans had reason to apprehend. Emissaries were +despatched to Egypt who made common cause with the disaffected and +restless elements of the population, cultivated friendship with the +Senussi and smuggled in arms to would-be African rebels. In India +German "scientific explorers" hobnobbed with the natives, criticized +the state of "serfage" to which British rule had reduced one of the +most highly civilized races of mankind, and made overtures to the +Afghans. To Abyssinia another "scientific expedition" was despatched, +which consisted of a number of German officers and one explorer. After +a circuitous and difficult journey it arrived at Massaua in March +1915, and requested the authorization of the Italian Governor of +Erithea, the Marquess Salvago-Raggi, to push on to Adis Abeba, in +order to re-establish communications between the German Legation there +and the Berlin Foreign Office. The real object of the expedition, as +the Italian Government well knew, was to incite the young Negus to +attack the British in the Sudan and the French in Djibuti. But Italy, +although still neutral, understood too well how difficult it would +have been for her to limit Abyssinia's warlike operations to the +French and British possessions and ward them off from her own +colonies. Baron Sonnino accordingly declined to accord the permission +asked for, and consented only to allow a large consignment of +"correspondence" to be sent on.[107] + + [107] Cf. _L'Idea Nazionale_, March 7, 1915; _Tribuna_, April + 1, 1915. + +Later on Turkish officers were sent to Libya to egg on the Arabs to +harass the Italians there. The Kaiser himself despatched a letter in +Arabic to the Senussi which was intercepted on a Greek sailing vessel +near Tripoli. It is said to have been enclosed in an embossed casket, +and was found on board together with L4000 in gold and a number of +oriental gifts. The letter, if genuine, is worth recording. Wilhelm +II., the Supreme Head of the Protestant Church in Germany, gives +himself therein, among other high sounding titles, those of Allah's +Envoy and Islam's Protector, and states explicitly that it is his will +that the Senussi's doughty warriors should drive the "infidels" from +the land which is the heritage of the true believers and their chief. +This, from the "supreme Bishop" of one of the Christian Churches, is +characteristic. + +In Asia Minor Germany's machinations were carried on with a much +greater measure of success. Her former opponents had withdrawn their +opposition and undertaken to lend her positive assistance to attain +ends which were directed against themselves. This chapter of Entente +diplomacy is marked by broad streaks of farcical comedy calculated to +bewilder the serious student. France was converted to political +orthodoxy on the subject of the Baghdad Railway and its cultural +significance. Some of her publicists frankly repented that she had so +long looked upon it with disfavour, and threw the blame on Russia, for +whose sake they had kept aloof. At Potsdam the Tsar's Minister +abandoned his objections to the Baghdad enterprise and undertook to +build a railway line from Persia, which would allow another stretch of +country to be tapped by the German Railway Company. Great Britain, +acknowledging the error of her ways, agreed that Koweit should not be +the terminus and made valuable concessions to the Teuton, the +realization of which was hindered by the outbreak of the war. Turkey, +through Enver, who had imported from the Fatherland a band of military +"instructors" under Liman von Sanders, became the _ame damnee_ of +Germany. In Persia every warlike and predatory tribe was courted by +the Teuton intruder, and the German mission at Teheran, as well as the +Consulates in the chief towns of the Shahdom, became centres of +agitation against Britain and Russia and branches of the German +General Staff. + +In the Tsar's dominions German agents organized a series of strikes in +the various works belonging to their countrymen, paid the strikers and +fostered a subversive political movement which bade fair to culminate +in a real revolution. In Belgium the Flemings, who had for years been +protesting against the refusal of their Government to give them a +Flemish University in Ghent, were incited against the Walloons, whose +dialect is of French origin and whose sympathizers were the entire +French people. And one of the joint acts of the German administration +in Brussels has been to appoint a commission to submit a scheme for +the creation of a Flemish high school in Ghent and accentuate the +differences between the two elements of the population.[108] + + [108] A spirited protest against this poisonous endeavour was + published by a number of Belgians, including Camille + Huysmans, who refused to accept any favours from the Germans. + +Meanwhile, in Germany the work of organization went steadily forward. +While British Ministers were on the look-out for reasons or pretexts +for diminishing expenditure on shipbuilding, Germany, under von +Tirpitz, was stealing a march on us and increasing hers. And over and +above this, she was arranging a surprise in the shape of submarines +and aircraft which, had the war been deferred for another couple of +years, might have not only removed the odds in our favour but given +her a decided superiority over us. And, by way of intensifying the +value of her fleet, she set to work to deepen the Kiel Canal and thus +to confer a sort of ubiquity on her battleships, which can now +concentrate in the North Sea or the Baltic without let or hindrance +from the enemy. When the epoch of the Dreadnoughts was opened German +armoured ships had a displacement of no more than 13,000 tons. The +larger type of battleship, which was afterwards constructed, could not +pass through the Canal, which had to be deepened. The necessary work +was so thoughtfully and opportunely taken in hand that it was +terminated in July 1914, just when the harvest for that year was also +ingathered. Asphyxiating gas had been manufactured in the year 1911, +as the Russians have discovered on certain of the machines. Thus when +the fatal hour struck, everything was ready. + +In the financial sphere, too, we find the same comprehensive survey, +the same eye for detail, the same forethought and combination. When +hostilities broke out British banks held about L1,100,000,000 of their +depositors' money. A large percentage of this had been employed to +discount foreign, and in especial German bills, so that the paper +remained in Great Britain and the gold was transferred to Germany, +where it plays its part against us. But those marvellous efforts put +forth with such effect by our enemies made no appeal to our rulers. +Nowhere in the British Empire was there any man of mark thinking and +acting for the community. The political pilots who had charge of the +state-ship possessed neither chart nor compass nor rudder. Neither did +they feel the need of these things. The Government disbelieved in war +and was minded, if a struggle should be precipitated, to keep out of +it. Nobody envisaged the needs and interests of the Empire as aspects +of a single problem. Nobody had any clear-cut plan for the working out +of the destinies of the British people. The interests of party, the +expediency of local reforms, the squabbles between this faction and +that, constituted the burning topics of the hour, and there were none +other. And it was while we were thus wrangling with and threatening +each other that the blast of the clarion ushered in the day of doom. + +The secrets of nature, revealed by science to a nation which +acknowledges no restraints, then became weapons of wholesale +destruction to be used to subjugate all civilization. Now, there are +some reasons for assuming that civilization will escape the thraldom, +but there are unhappily equally cogent grounds for apprehending that +some of its most precious achievements will be irrecoverably lost and +others greatly impaired. Had there been a master mind at the helm of +the British state-ship before the war or at its opening, we might have +been spared the necessity of signing one day a temporary peace amid +the ruins of European culture. + +But no puissant genius in any of the allied countries towered above +the dead level of mediocrity. Great Frenchmen, Britons and Russians +were said to be available, but there was no great man in evidence. And +this want proved disastrous. In Germany, on the other hand, it was +hardly felt. For it was compensated by the existence of a vast human +machine, adaptable to every change of circumstance, capable of +assuming countless Protean forms simultaneously, ready with a solution +for the most unexpected problems, provided with organs suited to the +discharge of every conceivable function, all directed to the same end. +It was the same organism that had worked with such brilliant success +for over thirty years, growing and perfecting itself steadily until it +became the concrete manifestation of a whole system of thought, +sentiment and co-ordinated action. Germany had developed into a +powerful national State in which the spirit of self-surrender for the +good of the community animates all sections alike, all of which +co-operate effectively, through the organizations which they +spontaneously created, for the realization of their common objects. +And therein lay her force. + +On the outbreak of war Germany was faced with a group of the most +arduous and intricate problems any Government has ever yet had to +tackle. For most of them she had had the time and the forethought to +prepare. But others arose which had been neither provided for nor +foreseen, in consequence of her mistaken assumption that Great Britain +would hold aloof from the war. The total value of her exports and +imports in the year 1913 was computed at 1,000,000,000 sterling, and +an infinity of fine threads bound her industrial activity with +foreign countries. By Great Britain's declaration of war, for which +Germany was unprepared until the last days of July, nearly all these +threads were snapped asunder, and the industrial and economic life of +the Empire had to be swiftly readjusted to the new conditions. And +here it was that the nation rose as one man to the unparalleled +occasion, faced the tremendous ordeal, and, contrary to the +expectations of its adversaries--ever prone to judge others by +themselves--has continued not merely to exist, but to extend its +conquests ever since. + +It was in the financial sphere that the first strain was felt. But +perilous though it actually was, it would have been intolerable but +for the precautionary measures adopted in July and the ingenious +devices applied by the Reichsbank immediately after. The first step +taken was to substitute short-terms credit for long. The gold in the +Reichsbank increased steadily, and from 1,009,000,000 marks on July 7, +1913, it rose to 1,356,000,000 by July 7, 1914. The war treasure +hoarded in the Julius-Tower was doubled, so as to enable the Imperial +Bank to issue 720,000,000 marks on the strength of it, whereby its +gold cover was augmented from 1,253,000,000 to 1,447,000,000. A +further considerable reserve of silver was laid by, which proved +extremely useful later on. One result of this policy was that on the +fatal 31st July, no less than 4,500,000,000 marks in banknotes could +be issued without exceeding the limits prescribed by the law.[109] A +network of Loan Banks was also created throughout the country in which +every one, possessed of property of any description, could obtain +credit to any amount, provided the pledges warranted the advance. + + [109] One-third gold cover is the amount fixed. Cf. Professor + J. Plenge, _Der Krieg und die Volkswirtschaft_. + +Nor were the large groups of business men neglected who had no pledges +to offer yet sorely needed credit. For their behoof War Credit Banks +were instituted, which transacted business on curious lines. A city or +town subscribed a third or even more of the shares of the borrowing +company, and the Imperial Bank conferred the right of rediscounting +bills of exchange up to an amount equal to three times the value of +the capital, and sometimes even more. Institutions were opened for +advancing money on house property, and for assisting special branches +of industry. The Hansa-Bund, for instance, founded a War Credit Bank +for "the Middle Classes" which, with the authorization of the +Reichsbank, rediscounts bills of exchange drawn by individuals for +whom the Commune vouches. Associations were constituted in the country +and in towns, and the nature of their work is evidenced by the 18,000 +rural Savings and Credit Banks and 16,000 urban and trade +associations.[110] For farmers and struggling landowners, a Central +Board, for the purchase of machines, was created, which also +superintended the equitable distribution of orders among industrial +firms. + + [110] These figures are drawn from statistics published in + July 1914. Cf. Dr. Karl Hildebrand, _Ein starkes Volk_. + +The suddenness of the declaration of war had for its effect, and +perhaps also for one of its objects, the stemming of the flow of gold +from the Reichsbank before it had exceeded the total of 100,000,000 +marks and also the prevention of its disappearance from the country. +Soon afterwards gold was brought in astonishing quantities to the bank +by all classes of citizens who had hoarded it jealously in peace-time, +but now recognized the criminality of applying the principles of +individual ownership to what of right belongs to the jeopardized +community. For the nation realized the fact that the condition of +public danger entitled the Government to wield an unlimited degree of +power over the lives and property of the people for the welfare of the +community. + +If we compare this intelligent appreciation of the position by rulers +and ruled, and their readiness to accommodate their respective actions +to it and play their parts as organs for the discharge of special +functions, with the haziness of conception, the misinterpretation of +events, and the utter lack of co-operation displayed by the +corresponding sections of the allied communities, we shall grasp the +secret of the superiority of the seemingly weaker group of +belligerents and the paltry results hitherto achieved by the stronger. + +German industry, too, the source of the nation's prosperity, was +shaken to its foundations. It had worked largely for the foreign +market. And all at once its exports were cut down by 60 per cent., +because of the stoppage of the supplies of raw materials. Imports also +fell by 75 per cent. One immediate consequence of this partial +stagnation was the enormous increase of the army of the unemployed. +Although 4,000,000 men were taken from the various industries and +despatched against the Belgians, French and Russians, there were at +the end of August no less than 3,400,000 men thrown out of +employment.[111] Thus the total number of unemployed was 7,400,000, +and as there were 17,000,000 hands employed before the war, it may be +inferred that German industry was reduced by 43-1/2 per cent. It was +in these conditions that the Teuton capacity for organization was +manifested. + + [111] Cf. _Messenger of Europe_, April 1915, M. Lurie. + +Two great industrial organizations flourished in Germany before the +war,[112] and although occasionally disagreeing on various points, +sensibly furthered the interests of their countrymen at home and +abroad. No sooner was war declared than they dropped their differences +and constituted a War Committee for German Industry. Among the varied +functions of this new body were the distribution of information +respecting orders given by the State, new legislation, etc.; +co-operation with firms for the fulfilment of contracts despite the +outbreak of hostilities; the selection of operatives, clerks, etc., +for firms needing these; the obtainment of places for the unemployed +and the organization of the credit system. + + [112] _Der Zentral-Verband Deutscher Industrieller_ and _Der + Bund der Industriellen_. + +This Committee also applied for and received permission to have all +those skilled artisans recalled from the front whose services were +deemed indispensable for war industries. It likewise watched over the +distribution of State orders, and saw that each of the various firms +received its due share. + +The organization of German industry during the war was taken in hand +by a group of experts and officials possessed of the insight, +knowledge and power necessary for the discharge of the arduous task. +Among the members of the Board we find the names of representatives +of finances, industries and the Government; the Minister of the +Interior, all the members of the Federal Council, M.M. Gwinner, +Bleichroeder, Siemens, etc. Special bureaux were opened for various +kinds of supplies, a Central Office for the War Supply of Tobacco, +another for that of chocolate, a third for leather, a fourth for +linen, etc.[113] Another group of organizations dealing with the +acquisition and distribution of raw stuffs possessed in certain cases +the right of expropriation, and is not allowed to make more than a +certain limited profit on its transactions. Among them are an +association for the supply of metals, another for chemicals, and a +third for woollen stuffs. + + [113] It is affirmed by contrabandists in Scandinavia who are + acting on Germany's behalf, that many of the commissions for + the acquisition of raw stuffs for Germany are composed almost + exclusively of non-Russian subjects of the Tsar. + +In consequence of the shortage of raw materials, economy and the +employment of substitutes were everywhere resorted to spontaneously +before the Government had time to intervene. From every household came +old copper vessels, copper wire, worn-out clothing from which the +manufacturers removed the wool, leather straps, shoes, bags, etc. From +Belgium and France everything that could be utilized as raw material +was hurriedly transferred to the Fatherland. At first the supply of +aluminium for castings and Zeppelins was insufficient, but a +composition of spelter and tin was invented, which answered the main +purposes equally well. Nickel being also scarce, coins of 10 pfennige +were withdrawn from circulation and utilized, while considerable +quantities were imported from Scandinavian countries. The place of +jute was taken by paper, and from paper under-garments were made. +Roasted acorns, theretofore employed in lieu of coffee only by the +poorer classes, thenceforward became the daily beverage of the middle +classes as well. A substitute for olive oil was extracted from cherry +stones, tainted meat was rendered harmless by chemical methods, +nitrates were extracted from the air by a Norwegian process which the +Germans had perfected and applied. + +Now, these achievements and the marvellous adaptability, energy and +resourcefulness which they connote, are no mean elements in Germany's +equipment for the coming economic struggle. They proclaim that the +mind of the Teuton man of business is too firmly riveted on the goal +to be fascinated by any special route leading towards it, and that it +is sufficiently free and disengaged to turn with eager interest to any +problem, however novel, with which it may be suddenly confronted. Use +and want are not its masters, sluggish contentment cannot numb its +activity. The customers' requirements, nay, their whims and fancies, +are ever sure to receive close attention and prompt satisfaction. The +contrast between this unflagging alertness and the drowsy apathy of +the British manufacturer and tradesman is an old story, which has +evoked comments sharp enough, it would seem, to arouse the commercial +community to a lively sense of its danger and duty. And yet there are, +unhappily, cogent grounds for believing that the malady of +listlessness is as malignant to-day as before the war. + +Now, these organizing and inventive talents of the Teuton, as +compared with the subordinate aims, fitful energies and honest but +mischievous conservatism of our own leaders and people, bear witness +to the same twofold talent of the German for looking far ahead and +contriving expedients on the spur of the moment. Great Britain's +participation in the struggle cut off Germany from the sea and gave +the two Central Empires the aspect of a beleaguered city. Hopes were +entertained by the Allies that famine might reinforce the work of +their armies and navies in compelling the enemy to sue for peace. +About 9 per cent. of the corn used in Germany usually came from +abroad, and now the interruption of the communications rendered this +source of supply precarious. The soldiers, too, had to be fed on a +scale of greater abundance than usual, and the prisoners of war, +however poorly nourished, would consume a certain amount of corn. The +first measure promulgated to meet the new conditions was a prohibition +of exportation. Potato flour was employed in bread-baking. War bread +was standardized for the whole Empire. The principal cities purchased +vast quantities of cereals, and Prussia founded a War Corn Association +for the acquisition of cereals to be stored until the ensuing spring. +Expropriation was legalized. In these ways L40,000,000 worth of +cereals were got together for consumption. The War Corn Association +operated with a capital of L2,500,000, to which the States subscribed +over one million, and the big cities one million, and the great +industrial firms L450,000.[114] This corn was paid for at the highest +market rates, the owners being compelled by law to declare how much +they possessed. With each of these proprietors--in the first phase +with 5,000,000 landowners--separate arrangements were concluded. The +Association employed for the purpose nearly three thousand +commissioners and five hundred other officials, and the Credit Banks +made advances on the quantities sold. + + [114] Cf. Karl Hildebrand, _Ein starkes Volk_, p. 122. + +Simultaneously with this home organization the other multifarious +tasks of devising new weapons for the war, improving the various types +of aircraft, building larger submarines and guns of greater calibre +went forward with unimpaired speed. Nothing was too vast or too +complicated to be undertaken, no detail was too trivial to be studied. +Politics, economics, military strategy and national psychology were +all cunningly interwoven in the various schemes laid for the +destruction of the Allies. Russia was inveigled into continuing her +trade with Germany, which, as we saw, was during the first year a +nowise negligible quantity. + +A piquant detail in this connection is worthy of mention.[115] It is +affirmed that the Customs House authorities on the Russo-Swedish +frontiers discovered to their dismay that for well over a year Germany +had been receiving from Russia a large proportion of the raw materials +necessary for the fabrication of asphyxiating gas. It appears that +Sweden, which in peace time was wont to import from the Tsardom a +certain quantity of those products, trebled its demands during the +first year of the war. + + [115] It is noticed by the Italian and French press; cf., for + instance, _Roma_, October 31, 1915. + +Contingents of contrabandists were despatched to Greece, Spain, +Morocco, Holland, Italy, Switzerland and the United States. Secret +stations were established for supplying submarines with the +wherewithal to carry on their war against inoffensive passenger +steamers. Agents were kept in the neutral countries to corrupt the +local press and poison the wells of information in order to allure the +neutrals into belligerency. A highly organized news-distributing +bureau was equipped in Berlin with all the requisites for falsifying +facts and distorting military tidings. Its branches are spread over +the globe. Passports were forged at first and later on genuine ones +abstracted from the Berlin Foreign Office and handed over to spies. +Strikes and outrages were engineered in the United States, Italy, and +Russia. The Putiloff works, which before the war were nearly falling +into German hands and have since been supplying munitions for the +Tsar's army, were stricken with creeping paralysis, against which +exhortations and threats were vain, and finally they had to be +sequestrated by the State. Millions of dollars were expended in the +United States in efforts to prevent the manufacture or the transport +of munitions to the Allies. In Greece vast sums were cheerfully +disbursed by Baron Schenk to work the elections and defeat Venizelos. +Roumania was overrun by bands of Germans whose functions were to +calumniate, vilify, corrupt and threaten. Spain has been wrought upon +in like manner by a small army of Teutons abundantly supplied with the +same weapons. Persia was scoured by German agitators who deployed all +their talents and acquirements, their knowledge of the language and +acquaintance with the native religion, to rouse the natives against +Russia and Great Britain. Abyssinia, although deprived by Italy of +the presence of the German "scientific expedition," was induced by the +German Minister at Adis Abeba to behave in such a way that in the +month of March 1916 King Victor's Government found it advisable to +issue a decree ordering _urgent_ fortifications to be constructed in +Erythea.[116] Sweden has been provided with war news and political +information free of charge by the generous Press Bureau of Berlin. In +Belgium persevering exertions have been put forth to sow discord +between Flemings and Walloons. In China, where a British adviser is +employed by the Chief of the State, Yuan Shih Kai has turned a willing +ear to the mentors from the Fatherland, with results which bear the +hall-mark of Germany. In Mexico Villa's murderous raids on American +territory, instigated, it is asserted, by German emissaries, compelled +United States troops to pursue him over the frontiers, and raised an +issue which may be decided only by a regular campaign. Thus Teuton +diplomacy, at whose failures we are so prone to rail, contrived on the +one hand to pass off the assassinations of Americans on board the +_Lusitania_ as a justifiable act, and on the other to present the New +Mexico murder, which was the work of a mere savage, as such an outrage +on the law of nations as warrants the employment of military +force.[117] + + [116] On March 16, 1916. + + [117] The _New York World_, in a leading article published + March 18, writes: "No pacifist proclaims the doctrine that, + although Americans had a legal right to live near the border, + they should have taken themselves out of the danger zone in + the interest of peace. No German-American Alliance holds + meetings to proclaim the dead at Columbus as 'Guardian + angels.' No German language newspaper has spoken of the New + Mexico massacre as undertaken in a holy cause, or referred to + the President as incapable of understanding either German + militarism or German Kultur. Yet the Americans who were + assassinated on the _Lusitania_ and the _Arabic_ had as much + right to be where they were as the Americans who were dragged + from their beds at Columbus and slaughtered. The _Lusitania_ + murder was deliberately planned and ordered by the Government + in Berlin, which has assumed full responsibility therefore, + and presented but one excuse, that its victims were + unexpectedly numerous. The New Mexico murder was planned and + executed by a savage, with no pretence that there is a + Government behind him, the guilt of the outlaw of the border + being not one whit less than that of the outlaw of the sea." + +That same diplomacy, seconded by the press organization which +invented facts and moulded opinion, scored successes in Bulgaria, +Greece, Roumania, Switzerland, and contrived not only to keep Italy +from declaring war against Germany, but to negotiate a treaty for the +protection of German property there. Despite its clumsiness and +arrogance and brutality, German diplomacy is unmatched as an agency +for rousing popular forces in civilized and uncivilized countries into +subversive excitement. It surrounded the Pope of Rome with +philo-German dignitaries, gave him an Austrian as adviser, and +permeated the Vatican with an atmosphere of Kultur which even pious +Catholics of non-Teuton countries avoid as mephitic. It caught the +Sultan and his Young Turks, Anglophile and Francophile, in its toils, +and gave its warm approbation to the massacre of the Armenians. It won +over the young Shah of Persia, who, with great difficulty and only +after strenuous exertions, was kept from going over bodily to the +Turkish camp. It bought the services of the Senussi. It is making +headway with the Negus of Abyssinia. It offered a bribe to Italian +socialists and found work for Italian anarchists, whose +representatives were received in the palace of the Kaiser's Ambassador +in Rome. And--most difficult task of all--it reconciled, at least for +a time, the interests of Bulgaria with those of Greece and Roumania. + +German diplomacy has often misread foreign political situations, +mistaken the trend of national opinion and sentiment and failed to +achieve ends which might by dint of mere patience and quiescence have +been readily accomplished. For it has no psychological standard by +which to measure the nobler qualities of a foreign people, however +closely it may have studied their politics, their history and their +vices. Its tests are for the lower grades of human character, and with +these it has indeed achieved extraordinary things. + +Thus, with infinite labour the Teuton mind has grappled with the +chaotic welter produced by the European war. But, besides the skilful +handling of great financial and kindred problems, its assiduity in +watching for and readiness to seize opportunities for dealing with the +issues of lesser moment is worth noting, were it only for its value as +a stimulus. One instance occurred in the very first sitting of the +Reichstag after hostilities had begun. The legislature agreed to +introduce a slight reform of the law, dealing with the rights of +children born out of wedlock, of whom there are in Germany 185,000 a +year. The Government assented to the change, which was embodied in a +bill affirming the right of the illegitimate children of soldiers +fallen in battle to the same pension as if their parents had been +legally married. And the Reichstag passed the bill unanimously. + +This solicitude about little things is most saliently in evidence in +the military domain. Here nothing is neglected that can contribute to +the fighting value of the units. Hence the care shown for the +nourishment and comfort of the soldiers. Ruthlessly though they are +sacrificed in battle, they are well looked after in the trenches, and +their career is followed with interest and recorded with accuracy by +their superiors. I was struck with the completeness of the information +which the German War Office possesses and can produce at a moment's +notice about any individual soldier. It was brought home to me in this +way. The Chief of the Berlin police had a grandson in the war who had +been missed for several weeks. Desirous of obtaining particulars about +his capture or death, he asked a neutral friend to obtain information +from the Russians. And by way of furnishing a description he sent a +printed card, which I read. It contained the name and age of the +soldier, the regiment to which he belonged, the hamlet in which he was +last seen, the distances that separated that hamlet from the next town +and the next large city, the day, the hour and _the minute_ when the +man together with his comrades were attacked, and the number of +Russians who attacked them. And all these printed particulars refer to +a private soldier! Is there anything comparable to this to be found in +any of the allied countries? + +The scene of another characteristic fact that struck me was Brussels. +Princess L. requested permission from the German authorities to repair +to France to visit her mother, who, she explained, was ill. At the +Kommandantur her request was met with the cutting remark that many +persons had been applying for permits to visit their mothers, sisters +and other relations abroad, who all appeared to be victims of some +mysterious epidemic. Still, the official added, he would not +definitively refuse the request, but would accord it as soon as he had +proof that the lady's mother was really ill. "We shall have inquiries +made." "But you cannot have inquiries made in France during the war," +she objected. "Just as quickly as in peace time," he retorted. +Sceptical and sad the petitioner returned home. But in a day or two +she was summoned to the Kommandantur and informed that her statement +had been verified, her mother lay ill--the malady was mentioned--and +she was permitted to go. The Germans have eyes and ears in all the +countries of their adversaries. + +One can readily imagine the painful kind of questions that will arise +in the mind of an intelligent ally who realizes for the first time how +great are the inventive and organizing talents of the Teuton, how +unswerving his resolve, how tenacious he is of purpose, and how +unconscious most of us still are of the need of bestirring ourselves +to compete with him on terms of equality. The German's striving is +one, but all-embracing. His means are countless, for they are +restricted by no limitations. In his search for tools and agents he +enters into human nature, but not in its entire compass; only into the +baser parts, so that his estimate is often erroneous and his +expectations are unfulfilled. But even when ample deduction has been +made for these failures, the odds remaining in his favour are +formidable, and will continue undiminished unless and until we realize +our plight, shuffle off the cramping coils of conservatism, +insularity and self-complacency and brace ourselves to the most +strenuous, the most painful effort we have ever yet put forth. On our +capacity to effect this inward change, rather than upon any diplomatic +arrangements, depends the issue of the struggle which will begin when +military and naval hostilities have come to an end. + + + + +CHAPTER XX + +PROBLEMS OF THE FUTURE + + +Plain though these facts are, the Entente nations, and in particular +the British people, either ignore them wholly or misinterpret their +purport. Hence we continue absorbed in the pursuit of interests, +parochial and parliamentary, which though quite human, are utterly off +the line of racial and imperial progress. We obstinately shut our eyes +to the magnitude of the Sphinx question that confronts us, and we +address ourselves to one--and that the least important--of its many +facets, and content ourselves with tackling that. We descant upon the +turpitude of the Teuton who from the regions of idealism in which +Goethe, Herder and their contemporaries dwelt has sunk into shift, +treason and murder, and we proclaim our faith in the ultimate triumph +of right, justice and of the democracy in which alone they flourish. +But this frame of mind, which moves us to identify ourselves with all +that is best in humanity, if cultivated will prove fatal. It accustoms +us to dangerous hallucinations. We assume that we are the chosen +people, and we neglect the virtues which alone would justify our +election. For generations we have been reaping and wasting, instead of +ploughing and sowing. We have been living on our capital, nay, on our +credit, and have long since overdrawn our account. Our successes in +the past, sometimes the result of fortuitous circumstances, more often +of the blunders of our rivals, inspire a presumptuous confidence in +successes for the future and a conviction that come what may we are +destined to muddle through. A special providence is watching over +us--a cousin German to the Kaiser's "good old God." In truth we are +tempting Fate, postulating an exception to the law of cause and +effect, and looking for Hebrew miracles in the twentieth century after +Christ. + +Were it otherwise, the nation would not have continued to entrust its +destinies to the men who misguided it consistently and perseveringly +for so many years, to the watchmen who saw nothing of the rocks and +sandbanks ahead which it was their function to discern and their duty +to avoid, and who are now unwittingly but effectually deluding the +people into believing that the present campaign, which is but a single +episode in a long-spun-out contest, is an independent event which +began in August 1914 and may end this year or the next. These same +leaders are busily inculcating the delusive notion that the diplomatic +instrument which will one day close hostilities will be a treaty of +peace. And they are seemingly prepared to negotiate its terms on that +assumption. + +In truth, we are engaged in a duel which began thirty years ago, gave +the Germans such booty as Heligoland, their world-trade, their wealth, +their formidable navy, their Baghdad Railway, their various overseas +colonies, their European Allies, and the enormous resources with which +when this acute phase of the contest is over they will re-transfer the +venue to the economic and political domains and carry on the struggle +with greater vigour than before. And peace terms concluded on any +other supposition cannot be conducive to the national welfare. We are +locked in a deadly embrace with a compact people of 120,000,000, of +indomitable spirit, boundless resources, unquenchable faith and a +single aim. Yet we are already looking forward to the time in the near +future when our intercourse, however circumscribed, with this nation +will be essentially pacific, and when we can revert to our cherished +narrow interests and our easy-going dilettantism. We feed upon the +hope that in a few brief years the British nation will have got safely +back to its old beaten grooves, and not only business and sport but +everything else will go on as usual. Yet all the salient facts which +force themselves on our attention to-day, all the decisive events of +the past thirty years are cogent proofs of the unbroken sequence of a +trial of strength which the future historian and the present +statesman, if there be one, must characterize as a life-and-death +struggle between the champions of the new Teuton politico-social +ordering and the partisans of the old. But after the lapse of a +generation and with the record of all our losses before us, we have +not yet formed a right conception of the situation, and its issues, or +of the historic forces at work. In these circumstances, no degree of +sagacity can help us to devise the only policy in which salvation +resides. The prevailing mistaken conception must be rectified before +any headway can be made against the currents that are fast bearing us +down. And the time at our disposal is brief. + +It needs few words to characterize the effects which the dreamy +optimism of the Entente nations had on their method of mobilizing +their resources to carry on the war. Taken unawares they had nothing +ready. Misapprehending the nature of the issues and the redoubtable +character of the contest, they pursued subordinate aims with +insufficient means. The most daring strategical moves of the enemy, in +war as in diplomacy, they ridiculed as either bluff or madness. The +journalistic campaign in neutral countries they scoffed at as vain, +and put their faith in the final triumph of truth. Their financial +measures, oscillating from one extreme to another, denoted the absence +of any settled plan, of any clear-cut picture of the needs of the +moment. The odds in their favour, which circumstance had given and +circumstance might take away again, they looked upon as inalienable, +until they ended by forfeiting them all. Viewing the campaign as a +transient event, the British Government prosecuted it by means of +make-shifts, instead of radical measures. Obligatory service was +scouted at as un-English. Discriminating customs tariffs were +condemned as heretical. It was not until the enemy had occupied +Poland, overrun Serbia, driven the Allied troops from the Dardanelles, +bent Montenegro to the yoke, threatened Egypt, Riga and Petrograd, +that some rays of light penetrated the atmosphere of ignorance and +prejudice through which the Allies surveyed the European welter. They +had begun by counting upon the breaking up of the Habsburg Monarchy. +They felt sure that the Tsar's armies would capture Budapest and +advance on Berlin. They planned the defeat of Germany by famine. They +built another fabric of hopes on "Kitchener's Great Army" in the +spring of 1915. But one after another these anticipations were belied +by events. And now the nation blithely accepts the further forecasts +of the men who are chargeable with this long sequence of avoidable +errors. + +Respect for individual liberty was carried to such a point in Great +Britain that organizations against recruiting were tolerated in +England and Ireland, and strikes, which not only inflicted heavy +pecuniary losses on the nation but actually stopped its supplies of +munitions and brought it within sight of discomfiture, were treated +with soft words and immediate concessions. One cannot read even Mr. +Lloyd George's summary narrative of the preposterous doings of British +slackers without wondering whether salvation is still possible. These +men not only refused to work their best for the community, but forbade +their comrades to work well. At Enfield, we are told, a man was +obliged by trade union regulations so to regulate his work that he did +not earn more than 1_s._ an hour, though he could easily have earned +2_s._ 6_d._[118] Another man was doing two and a half days' work in +two days, and when he refused to carry out the behest of the +Ironfounders' Board to waste the other half day he was fined L1.[119] +A consequence of this anti-national attitude was that "we had to wait +for weeks in Birmingham with machinery lying idle, with our men +without rifles, with our men with a most inadequate supply of machine +guns to attack the enemy and defend themselves."[120] Every one will +re-echo the Minister's comment on the outlook, if this attitude is +persisted in--"we are making straight for disaster." + + [118] Mr. Lloyd George's speech at Bristol. Cf. _Daily + Telegraph_, September 10, 1915. + + [119] _Ibid._ + + [120] _Ibid._ + +Compare this state of things with that which rules in Germany. It is a +British Minister who describes it: "If you want to realize what +organized labour in this war means, read the story of the last twelve +months. By the end of September the German armies were checked. They +sustained an overwhelming defeat in France, Russia was advancing +against them towards the Carpathians, and I believe in East Prussia. +That is not the case to-day. Why? The German workmen came in; +organized labour in Germany prepared to take the field. They worked +and worked quietly, persistently, continuously, without stint or +strife, without restriction for months and months, through the autumn, +through the winter, through the spring. Then came that avalanche of +shot and shell which broke the great Russian armies and drove them +back. That was the victory of the German workmen."[121] + + [121] Mr. Lloyd George's speech at Bristol. Cf. _Daily + Telegraph_, September 10, 1915. + +Great Britain is the classic land of strikes. Strikers are sacred +among us. Industrial compulsion is rank heresy. + +That is one of our difficulties, and by no means the least formidable. +The nation, despite the superb example of patriotic heroism given by +all classes, parties, provinces and colonies of the Empire, is still +deficient in cohesiveness. No fire of enthusiasm has yet burned +fiercely enough among all sections of the Empire and all members of +the race to fuse them in such a compact unified organism as we behold +in the Teuton's Fatherland. Read the characteristic given of us by the +ex-German Minister Dernburg, and say whether it is over-coloured. +Discoursing on the difficulties which Britain has to cope with in +carrying on the war, he says: "They are intensified ... by the +narrow-minded customs of the English trade unions, which contrast with +the patriotic behaviour of the German associations of the like nature +as night contrasts with day."[122] This is melancholy reading for +those whose hopes are fervent for a bright future of the British race, +and it prepares them to listen in anxious silence to the general +conclusion at which the Prussian ex-Minister arrives: "It is in the +highest degree improbable," he says, "that after the winding up of +this contest England will be able to keep or wield any form of +economic superiority whatever over Germany." + + [122] _Berliner Tageblatt_, March 9, 1916. + +In our Allies we find a strong touch of resemblance to ourselves. +Their state of unpreparedness is amazing, if less desperate than ours. +Russia, it is true, did much better at the outset than friend or foe +anticipated, and she might have done quite well if only she had been +supplied with munitions. But she had not nearly enough, and her armies +were slaughtered like sheep in consequence. Then there were no boots +for the soldiers, who were forced to wear thin canvas leggings with +leather soles. And scores of waggon-loads of incapacitated men were +taken to Petrograd and other cities whose feet had been frozen for +lack of shoe-leather. One of the urgent wants of the Tsardom are +railways, which the late Count Witte was so eager to construct. When +hostilities opened, the insufficiency of communications became one of +the decisive factors in Russia's disasters. And it was heightened by +the conduct of, shall we say, the prussianized officials,[123] who are +reported to have disposed of waggons for large sums to greedy +merchants, who used to raise the prices of the merchandise and batten +on the misery of their fellows. + + [123] It is but fair to say that venality is not one of the + characteristics of the German bureaucracy. Their sense of + duty towards the State is the nearest approach to morality of + which they now seem capable. + +Trains, needed to supply the fighting men at the front with food and +the wounded at the rear with medicaments, were kept back to suit the +schemes of these greedy cormorants. Gratuities, it is openly affirmed, +had to be paid by Red Cross and other officers to those subordinate +railway servants who had it in their power to send on a train or shunt +it off for days on a side-track. Bribery is working havoc in the +Tsardom. In January 1916 the Moscow municipality discussed the +advisability of voting a certain sum of money and putting it at the +disposal of the chief officer of the city, to be discreetly employed +in transactions with complacent railway officials, in order to further +the work of reducing prices on necessaries of life. The motive adduced +for this homoeopathic way of treating a social distemper were the +conditions of life in Russia and the necessity of complying with them. +But as the Statute Book does not recognize these conditions and +condemns bribery absolutely, a vote on the subject was not taken.[124] + + [124] The German press gave great prominence to this item of + news. Cf. _Frankfurter Zeitung_, January 8, 1916. + +Acting on instructions issued by the Finance Minister, a Member of the +Council of the Finance Ministry, D. I. Zassiadko, visited the +Kharkoff circuit for the purpose of studying the bribery problem on +the spot. M. Zassiadko acquired the conviction "on the spot" that the +railway officials do really take bribes, "and even of considerable +amounts." But, that ascertained, the representative of the Ministry +decided to delve deeper to the root of the matter. And he reached the +conclusion that railway servants belong to the class of the tempted. +The evil, he reported, resides not in the circumstance that they take +bribes, but that bribes are offered whereby these weak little souls +are seduced. The representative of the Ministry discovered an entire +category of bribes which do not bear the signs of extortion, but only +of "gratitude." To us this conclusion sounds somewhat naive. The most +widely circulated journal of Petrograd prefaces an article on the +subject as follows.[125] + + [125] _The Bourse Gazette_, February 21. + +"The misdeeds of the officials and bribery on the railway system cry +out to heaven," writes the organ of the Constitutional Democrats. +"Compared with the reverses on the Carpathians and in Poland, the +defeats we are sustaining in our own house and behind the enemy's back +are much greater...." On the important line Petrograd-Moscow-Perm +scandalous cases of corruption took place in which, according to +Russian journals, officials of a class who might reasonably be +regarded as unbribable were implicated. They are alleged to have let +out to firms of speculators for large sums of money, goods waggons +which were already destined to carry consignments to the front.[126] +Russia's purchases abroad have made a profound impression on the +peoples in whose midst they were effected. The principles on which +these transactions were carried on provoked lively comments. It is not +that they revealed a superlative degree of disorganization. That touch +would have merely marked the kinship of the men concerned with their +allies. By the discovery that the Russian Government's purchasing +Commissioners, the representatives of one of its embassies, the agents +of the British Government and the equally zealous agents of the French +Government were all secretly bidding against each other for the same +rifles to be delivered to the Tsar's Ministers, only a smile of +recognition was elicited. It may have seemed at once amusing and +consolatory to find that all were tarred with the same brush. But when +it was discovered that the offer of certain army necessaries was put +off for weeks and weeks, although they were to be had under cost +price, and was then accepted at a much higher price, profound sympathy +was felt for the Tsar's armies. + + [126] Cf. _Reitch_ (about February 17, 1916), March 5, 1916. + +Chaos, waste and a variety of abuses that pressed heavily on the +poorer classes marked the efforts made by the Russian Government to +cope with the scarcity of fuel, corn and other necessaries which began +to be felt soon after the war. The rolling stock, it was complained, +was utterly insufficient, yet it was found possible to transport +1,000,000 poods[127] weight of mineral water of doubtful quality. When +trains arrived bringing supplies to the suffering population, it +turned out that there were no hands to unload the waggons. And when +labour was requisitioned, vehicles were not to be had. In October 1915 +on the rails of Moscow station five thousand waggons, laden with +life's necessaries, stood waiting and waiting in vain for the +unskilled labour which ought to have been abundant, considering the +number of the population and of the refugees. At the same time 2000 +waggons were on the rails of the Petrograd station, their contents +lying unutilized.[128] It is only by the lack of order and +organization that one can explain the facts that in Petrograd the +inhabitants have no butter, while in the places where butter is made +it is being sold cheaper than before, at 12 in lieu of 16 to 18 +roubles a pood. In the province of Ekaterinograd, mines which own +800,000 poods of coal cannot get more than a few waggon loads of it +every month. + + [127] A pood is equal to 36.11 lbs. + + [128] Cf. _Novoye Vremya_, October 9, 1915. + +Russia has incomparably more than enough fuel, without importing any, +to satisfy all the needs of her 180,000,000 inhabitants. But owing to +the insufficiency of communications, and still more to the lack of +forethought and enterprise, the population of many cities and towns +underwent serious hardships in consequence of the impossibility of +acquiring coal or wood. In September 1915 the Petrograd region could +obtain no more than 65 per cent. of the necessary quantity, and a +month later only 49 per cent. In Moscow the plight of the inhabitants +was worse. In September they could get but 26 per cent. of their needs +and in October 40 per cent. According to the Minister of Commerce, who +volunteered these data, the condition of the towns of Rostoff, +Novotcherkassk, Nakhitchevan, Taganrog, Ekaterinodar and others was +not a whit better. The city of Vyatka was, according to the _Novoye +Vremya_,[129] in January 1916 without fuel, while the mercury +registered 30 degrees Reaumur below freezing-point. The unfortunate +citizens heated their homes with fragments of hoardings, tables, desks +and stools. And yet there is abundant fuel in the superb forests with +which Vyatka is surrounded, and, what is more to the point, the city +authorities had received during the preceding spring 60,000 roubles +for the purpose of purchasing a supply of wood for the winter. But +they did nothing, organization not being one of their strong points. + + [129] The German press welcomes items of information like + this. Cf. _Frankfurter Zeitung_, January 13, 1916. + +Live stock in Russia has diminished during the war to a much larger +extent than was anticipated. The peasantry, owing to the prohibition +of alcohol, now consume from 150 to 200 per cent. more meat than +before, and what with the refugees from Poland, the prisoners of war +and the increased needs of the army, no less than 20 per cent. of the +cattle of the entire Empire was used during the first eighteen +months[130] and 30 per cent. of the stock of all European Russia. In +consequence of the shortage and of the irregularity of the transport, +three days of abstinence from meat were ordained. Yet in January 1916 +a discovery was casually made in the Kieff forests between Byelitch +and Pushtsha Voditzka, which caused considerable lifting of the +eyebrows. About 8000 head of cattle and several thousand sheep were +found with no cowherds, shepherds or owners, wandering about from +place to place. Scores of them were succumbing to hunger and cold +every day. The paths in the woods were covered with the dead bodies of +kine, calves and sheep. The journal which records this fact affirms +that these herds belong to the Union of Zemstvos, which had purchased +them from the peasants who had to flee from the occupied provinces. +The President of the Union of Zemstvos is said to have confirmed this +odd story with the qualification that the forlorn horned cattle and +sheep are the property not of the Union of Zemstvos, but of the +Ministry of Agriculture, which is alone answerable.[131] + + [130] Over a hundred million head. + + [131] Cf. the Russian journal, _Kieff_, also the _Frankfurter + Zeitung_, January 29, 1916. + +The card system of distributing provisions that are scarce found its +way first into Germany and then into Austria and Russia. But in the +last-named empire it was much less successful than in the two first +mentioned. According to the Petrograd journals in Pskoff, where it was +tried, many individuals got no cards, and therefore no provisions. +Many who possessed the cards found nothing to buy. And some of those +who obtained the articles they wanted paid dearer for them than if +they had bought them without cards. And as with cards one has to lay +in a stock to last a fortnight, the poorer families were unable to +utilize them.[132] + + [132] _Novoye Vremya_, January 1916. _Frankfurter Zeitung_, + January 21, 1916. + +In France, as well as in Russia, the professional organizers, +especially the civilians, were very much adrift. In the army all the +sterling qualities of the French nation at its best, and many that +were deemed extinct, but are now seen to have been only dormant, shone +forth resplendent. Valour, fortitude, staying power, self-abnegation +for the common good, became household virtues. Friends and foes were +equally surprised. But the civil administration remained +well-meaning, patriotic and unregenerate to the last. The old Adam +lived and acted up to his reputation. + +Before the war the French railway administration had been criticized +severely. It is not for a foreigner to express an opinion on the +internal ordering of a country not his own, but unbiassed French +experts found that the strictures were called for and the verdict, in +which the public acquiesced, was well grounded. Subsequently, when the +struggle began and the railway system was tested, people had reason to +remember the previous complaints, for they saw how little had been +done in the meanwhile to remove the causes of dissatisfaction. The +first drawback was the want of rolling stock. "Give us waggons and we +will execute all orders and supply the War Ministry," cried the +munitions firms. "There are no waggons in the ports, and we cannot get +the coal delivered," exclaimed the importers. "The country is +threatened with general paralysis," wrote the _Journal_;[133] "we can +neither forward nor sell anything." The railway administration asked +for a fortnight's notice, then for three weeks and finally an +indefinite period, before it could provide a single truck. "I have +fertilizing stuff to forward before the season is past," pleads the +representative of one firm. "We have no waggons," is the reply. "I +must have my produce delivered at once to the Government," argues +another, "for it is wanted for the fabrication of powder." But the +answer came promptly: "There are no waggons." "But you have waggons. I +see them over there" (the station was Cognac). "Yes, but we may not +touch them. They belong to the military engineering department." +"Well, but what are they doing there?" "Ah, that is none of our +business."[134] + + [133] _Le Journal_, November 26, 1915. + + [134] _Le Journal_, November 26, 1915. + +And in the ports, at the termini, at intermediate stations, the +merchandise lay heaped up, immobilized, while the merchants, the +middlemen, the manufacturers, the Government, the army were waiting, +time was lapsing, and the fate of the Republic and the nation hanging +in the balance. At Havre great machines, destined for a Paris firm +which was to have delivered them to factories making shells, lay +untouched for two months. The number of shells lost in this way has +never been calculated. Yet it was well known that during all that time +there were numbers of waggons available. What had become of them? The +answer was: They are to be found everywhere, immobilized. It is a case +of general immobilization of the rolling stock. People slept in them, +turned them into cottages, used them as warehouses, each individual +reasoning that one waggon more or less would not be missed. And as +this argument was used by large numbers of easy-going, well-meaning +people the result was appalling. + +The most terrific war known to history was raging in three Continents, +and one group of belligerents, unaware or heedless of the magnitude of +the issues, kept wasting its enormous resources and throwing away its +advantages. At the little station of Cognac waggons laden with all +kinds of war materials, barbed wire, galvanized wire, etc., were +detained from September 1914 until November 1915, 400 days in all, +doing nothing. Forty-two waggons ready to move were found on two +grass-covered rails. Fourteen waggons were there since September 1914. +Eight since December of the same year, twenty since June. Altogether +at the modest little station of Cognac the total recorded by Senator +Humbert's _Journal_ was 228,500 tons-days. "All this during the most +tremendous war the world has ever witnessed, in which hundreds of +thousands of men have been slain, where we have continually been short +of war material, while industry and commerce are agonizing for lack of +means of transport. It may well seem a dream."[135] + + [135] _Le Journal_, November 26, 1915. + +Seven hundred French railway stations were devoid of rolling stock. On +the other hand, from the beginning of the war down to November 1915, +729 waggons were lying immobilized at the station of Blanc-Mesnil. +Seven hundred and twenty-nine![136] Merchants, manufacturers, +importers, all were being literally beggared for lack of transports +while hundreds of waggons lay rotting at obscure little stations for +over a year. "The whole region of the West is encumbered," we read, +"with 30,000,000 hectolitres of apples, valued at 300,000,000 francs, +which cannot be conveyed anywhither, and which people are beginning to +bury in the earth as manure. Sugar is scarce and is rising in price, +whereas ever since last August[137] a single firm has unloaded 10,000 +tons of sugar at Havre which it cannot have transported to Paris. +Innumerable army purveyors are unable to send the machines for the +shells...." An official order to the army prescribed a substitute for +barbed wire, which was not to be had at any price, yet at a single +station at least 135 tons of barbed wire were lying for a twelvemonth +unused, untouched.[138] On November 27, 1915, the military hospital +N16 at Poitiers needed coal. A request was made by telephone. The +reply received was: "We have coal at La Rochelle, but there are no +waggons to carry it." Yet there were forty-two waggons immobilized at +Cognac, 729 at Blanc-Mesnil and 121 standing laden with barbed wire +and other materials for over a year! + + [136] _Le Journal_, December 2, 1915. They were photographed + and the photograph reproduced in that paper. + + [137] That was published in December 1915. + + [138] _Le Journal_, December 2, 1915. + +Organization and intelligence! + +With engines the experience was the same. The French Government, +anxious to make up for the deficiency, purchased 140 engines of +British make to be delivered some time in 1916. Yet at that time there +were at the station of Mezidon (Calvados) over 500 engines +immobilized, nobody knew why or by whom. This cemetery of locomotives +was photographed by the _Journal_. Such was the harvest reaped by the +enterprising Senator Humbert's commission at that one station. There +were others. At Marles six Belgian engines, at Serquigny twenty, etc. + +The attention of the French authorities having been called to this +unqualifiable neglect, a senatorial railway commission was appointed +to inquire into the matter, and it reported that: "The engines in +question, numbering about 2000, of which 1000 on the State railway +system are now going to be repaired." "There are therefore 2000 +engines scandalously abandoned," comments the _Journal_, ... +"forgotten during sixteen months, and having passed from the state of +being inutilized to that of being inutilizable. For if these machines, +which were in service before the war and came from Belgium, are +to-day, like the waggons of Blanc-Mesnil, incapable of being utilized +in their present state, as the official note puts it, the reason is +that they were left to decay in the rain and the wind without cover or +case for five hundred days."[139] + + [139] _Le Journal_, December 4, 1915. + +Interesting in a smaller way is the reply given by the French War +Minister to a question by a deputy, the Marquis de Ludre, who asked +for information about a consignment of knives which had been provided +for the army, but were found to be quite useless. The Minister +explained that the Generalissimus having requested the immediate +dispatch of 165,000 knives, the department charged with the execution +of the order had no time to examine the goods, and the circumstance +was overlooked that all kinds of knives were supplied, without any +reference to the purpose for which they were destined.[140] The +Minister added that no one should be blamed for this, inasmuch as it +was "the result of exaggerated but praiseworthy zeal." This +construction is charitable and may be true in fact. But the soldiers +who, in lieu of a serviceable blade, found themselves in possession of +a dessert knife may have taken a different view of the transaction. + + [140] Journal Official, answer to question No. 5730. + +This is hardly what is understood by organization. + +Beside those scenes from chaos set this picture of order: "In a small +French town in which the supreme _etape commando_ of Kluck's army was +situated, we inspected a field postal station. On the ground floor the +letters were being received and delivered. The stream of soldiers was +endless. They were sending field postcards, which are forwarded +gratuitously. The difficult work of sorting the correspondence was +being transacted on the first storey. Every day from 1800 to 2000 post +sacks arrive, mostly with small packets and postcards, and day after +day the same difficult problem presents itself--how to find the +addressee. Many regiments, it is true, have permanent quarters, but +there are mobile columns as well. Quick transfers are possible, and +individuals may be shifted to another place or incorporated in a +different regiment. The arranging of the correspondence went forward +in a spacious room; the letters which it was difficult to deliver were +handed over to a number of specialists, who sat in an adjoining +apartment and studied all the changes caused by the transfer of +troops. They found help in an address-book containing a list of all +the field formations. About once every four days, or even oftener, a +new edition of this work was issued. By the middle of December 1914 +the eighty-fourth edition was in print."[141] + + [141] Karl Hildebrand, _Ein starkes Volk_, p. 108. + +This talent for organization, this capacity of thought concentration +in circumstances which tend to strengthen emotion at the cost of +reason, have been constantly displayed by our enemies throughout the +entire struggle of the past thirty years, and never more conspicuously +than during the present war. Every emergency found them ready. The +most unlikely eventualities had been foreseen and provided for. +Private initiative, which "grandmotherly legislation" was supposed to +have killed, was more alert and resourceful than among any of the +Entente nations. Every German is in some respects an agent of his +Government. Each one thinks he foresees some eventuality with the +genesis of which he is especially conversant, and he forthwith +communicates his forecast and at the same time his plan for coping +with the danger to some official. And all suggestions are thankfully +received and dealt with on their intrinsic merits. For such matters +the rulers of the Empire, however engrossed by urgent problems, have +always time and money. + +It is instructive and may possibly be helpful to compare this spirit +of detachment from the personal and party elements of the situation, +this accessibility to every call of patriotic duty, this +self-possession under conditions calculated to hinder calm +deliberation, with the hesitations, the bewilderment, the conflicting +decisions of the Entente leaders and their impatience of unauthorized +initiative and offers of private assistance. Outsiders are not wanted. +Their money is not rejected, but nothing else that they tender is +readily received. + +In other more momentous matters the Allies also lagged behind their +adversaries. Despite their vast resources and the generous offers of +private help, the care taken of the wounded left a good deal to be +desired. The articles on this subject which were published in the +London Press provided ample food for bitter reflection. In France, at +the beginning of the war, wounded soldiers, after receiving first +aid, were conveyed for days in carts over uneven roads to the +hospitals in which they were to be treated. An American gentleman, +witnessing the sufferings of these victims of circumstance, collected +a number of motors in which to have them transported rapidly and with +relative comfort. But his offer of these conveyances was rejected by +all the departments to which he applied. And it was only after he had +spent weeks in visiting influential friends in London that he finally +obtained an introduction to the Secretary for War, who, overriding the +decisions of his subordinates, closed with the proposal and sent the +benefactor with his motors to the front. + +It has been affirmed by unbiassed neutral witnesses who evinced +special interest in the subject that tens of thousands of the allied +wounded who died of their injuries might have been saved had they had +proper care. But defective organization and other avoidable causes +deprived them of efficient medical help. + +By Great Britain more comprehensive measures were fitfully taken, of +which our wounded have reaped the benefit. A French journal[142] +enumerated, with a high tribute of praise, the results of the +observations made by a commission of British physicians in the Grand +Palais Hospital in Paris: "More than half, to be exact 54 per cent., +of the wounded entrusted to the care of the doctors of the Grand +Palais since last May have been sent back to the front, completely +cured. What an achievement!" Undoubtedly it is a feat to be proud of, +if we compare it with the percentage of cured in certain other +countries and in the Dardanelles. But if we set it side by side with +what is claimed for and by the Germans, it may appear less remarkable. +It cannot be gainsaid that the British authorities have spared neither +money nor pains to alleviate the sufferings and heal the injuries of +the wounded. And if the measure of their success is still capable of +being extended, the reason certainly does not lie in any lack of good +will. + + [142] _The Figaro_, February 22, 1916. + +On the incapacitated German soldier every possible care is bestowed. +His every need is foreseen and when possible provided for with an eye +to thoroughness and economy. Waste and niggardliness are sedulously +eschewed. Every man is provided with a square of canvas with eyelets, +which serves as a carpet on which he lies at night, as a stretcher on +which, when wounded, he is carried to the place where he can have his +injuries attended to, and which, when he is killed, is used as a +winding-sheet. The medical organization of the army is as thorough as +the military. And the results attained justify the solicitude +displayed. From month to month the percentage of wounded who are able +to return to the front has been augmenting steadily, and the +death-rate has decreased correspondingly. During the first month of +the war, out of every hundred wounded there were 84.8 capable of +further service, 3.0 dead, and 12.2 incapacitated or sent home. In +September of the same year the number of those able to return to the +front rose to 88.1, or about 4 per cent. more. And at the same time +the death-rate sank from 3 to 2.7 per cent. In the third month the +proportion of soldiers able to resume their places in the ranks of +fighters was 88.9, while the deaths had been reduced to 2.4. During +the period beginning with November and ending in March the number of +the wounded who went back to the front oscillated between 87.3 and +88.9. In November the percentage of deaths was only 2.1 per cent., and +in December only 1.7 per cent. January 1916 showed a further +improvement, the death-rate having fallen to 1.4 and in February 1.3 +per cent. During the two following months the percentage rose again to +1.4, but declined slowly until in June and July it had descended to +1.2 per cent. The number of wounded men who were sent back to their +places at the front had meanwhile increased by April to 91.2, and by +June 1915 to 91.7, and in May and July to 91.8. Seven per cent. were +wholly incapacitated or dismissed to their homes. Among the latter a +considerable percentage returned subsequently to the ranks. +Altogether, then, about 91.8 per cent. of the wounded German soldiers +who fall in battle are so well taken care of that they are able to +fight again, and no more than 1.2 per cent. of the total number +succumb to their wounds.[143] + + [143] _Deutsche Medizinische Wochenschrift._ + +This strict conformity to the material and psychological conditions of +success marks the method by which the Germans proceed to realize a +grandiose plan which is understood and furthered by one and all. Their +talent for organization, their insight, their inventiveness, and their +highly developed social sense are all pressed into the service of this +patriotic cause. And it is to these permanent qualities, more even +than to their thirty years' military and economic preparation, that +they owe their many successes. The cynicism and ruthlessness of our +arch-enemy should not be allowed to blind us to his enterprise, his +stoicism, his meticulous applications of the law of cause and effect. +These are among his most valuable assets, and unless we have solid +advantages of our own to set against and outweigh them, our appeals to +the justice of our cause and our denunciations of his wicked designs +will avail us nothing. It is to our interest to seek out and note +whatever strength is inherent in himself or his methods and to +appropriate that. The struggle will ultimately be decided by the +superiority of equipment, material and moral, which one side possesses +over the other. As for the conceptions of public law and international +right which the antagonists severally stand for, they must be gauged +by quite other standards than heavy guns and asphyxiating gases. It is +not impossible that in the course of time, and by dint of reciprocal +action and reaction, the German views may be sufficiently modified and +moralized to render possible the usual process of assimilation with +which the history of speculative ideas and social movements has +rendered us familiar. Meanwhile, truth compels us to admit that part +at least of the western system is being overtaken by decay, and stands +in need of speedy and thorough renovation. + + + + +CHAPTER XXI + +THE FINAL ISSUE + + +To come victorious out of the present ordeal--if, indeed, that be +possible with the leaders, principles, methods and strivings that +still characterize us--will not suffice to effect the triumph of our +cause. The present, momentous though it be, cannot with safety be +separated in thought or action from the future. The struggle will go +on relentlessly after this campaign until one side has worsted the +other definitively. And it is for that struggle that it behoves us to +prepare while the war is still at its height. + +The Germans, true to their practice, have set us the example. Their +curious combinations for dividing the Allies while negotiating their +own schemes for reorganizing political Europe have been worked out in +almost every detail. Their projects for creating a vast and powerful +economic organization, to be known as Central Europe,[144] with its +first appendix in the Balkan Peninsula, have been carefully woven, and +will be duly embellished when the hour for unfolding them has struck. +In a word, when opportunity suddenly appears like the bridegroom of +the Gospel, the German will be found waiting, with girded loins and +trimmed lamp. He has distributed the parts of each nation in the +international drama, and if the roles cannot be taken over to-morrow, +he will wait until the day after. + + [144] Cf. Friedrich Naumann, _Mitteleuropa_. + +The world is henceforth no longer a field of labour for the +individual. Co-operation is the open sesame to the economic life of +the future. And co-operation means organization. Organization, then, +is the Alpha and Omega of the new era. That is the mysterious radium +which has enabled a single race to assail and hold its own against a +group of powers whose territory and population are many times greater +than its own. That race has demonstrated the quasi-omnipotence of +organized labour, and has thereby itself become almost omnipotent. On +the success or failure of its adversaries to create a like force and +rise to the same height depends the future of Europe and the British +Empire. One of the first corollaries of the new principle is the +enlargement of all great units, including political communities. +Germany and Austria, therefore, are bound, if not precisely to +coalesce in one whole, at least to co-operate and combine for their +common ends against common competitors, and thus to form the nucleus +of that federal state which is, our enemies hope, one day to be +commensurate with the continent of Europe. + +At present, however satisfactory the military situation may be said to +be, the general outlook is far from bright. Our aims are impoverished, +our creative energies are clogged by prejudice, our political vision +is narrowed by party goals, and the forces inherent in the nation +which should be employed in readjusting its life to the new conditions +are being frittered away in abortive efforts to neutralize dissolvent +ideas that are sapping only those organs of our social and political +system which are already vicious or decayed. The waste of the empire's +resources has no parallel in history. Supreme confusion marks our +internal condition. Our leaders have done nothing to familiarize the +nation with the dangers that threaten it, the means by which they +should be met, or with the social and political ideas which are +destined to shape and sway the new order of things which is already +close at hand. + +In the absence of constructive leaders it is for the nation itself to +make due preparation for the momentous changes in the social and +political system of Europe to which the present crisis is but the +prelude. + +And although much has been spoken and written on the subject since the +war began, little permanent work has as yet been done. And there are +few signs of a radical change for the better. The confusion and +incongruousness that mark the ideas of the reformers, and the +hesitancy and conflicting interests of politicians make one dubious of +the outcome of the present contest. Almost everything essential would +appear to be still lacking to the Allies, and the nature of the coming +"peace period" is not realized, because the war is looked upon as an +isolated phenomenon which began in July 1914, and will end when +hostilities have ceased. Another belief equally misleading and +mischievous is that the Teuton race can be paralysed if not crushed, +and that for fifty or sixty years to come no revival of its energies, +no recrudescence of its morbid aggressiveness need be apprehended. If +we continue to shape our conduct on that assumption we may find +ourselves one day in a Serbonian bog from which there is no rescue. +However stringent the conditions which the Allies may be able to +impose on their enemies, there will still remain a keen, strenuous, +irrepressible race of at least a hundred and twenty millions, endowed +with rare capacities for organization, cohesion, self-sacrifice and +perseverance, whom no treaties can bind, no scruples can restrain, no +dangers intimidate. At any moment a new invention, a favourable +diplomatic combination, would suffice to move them to burst all bounds +and resume the military, naval and aerial contest anew. + +Even now, while the war is still raging, they are busy with +comprehensive plans for the economic struggle which will succeed it. +Nor are they content to weave schemes. They have already begun to +carry them out. To mention but a few of the less important +enterprises, as symptoms of the German solicitude for detail, there +was a numerous gathering of railway representatives, Austrian, +Hungarian and German, in August 1915, to consider the means of +readjusting the railway service to the conditions which the peace +would usher in. Among the projects laid before the meeting and +insisted on by various financial institutions was the reconstruction +on a new basis of the Sleeping Car Company, from which Belgian capital +is to be excluded.[145] + + [145] _Giornale del lavori pubblici._ Cf. also _Giornale + d'Italia_, August 22, 1915. + +In Italy many of the German commercial houses are, so to say, +hibernating during the war. They merely altered their names and +substituted well-paid, friendly Italians for Germans, and the feat was +achieved. In this way the Kaiser's mercury mines of Abbadia, San +Salvatore and Corte Vecchia in Tuscany are being protected, and nobody +in Italy is under any misapprehension as to what is going on there. +They are nominally in the hands of Swiss. + +One of the most successful manoeuvres by which the Germans have +already parried the strokes of their rivals in the economic struggle +is by crossing the frontiers and carrying on the contest in the +enemy's country. It was thus that, when Russia, by way of protecting +her own nascent textile industries, levied heavy duties on imports +from abroad, the Germans transported their plant and their workmen +across the border, built extensive works in Lodz which gradually grew +into a prosperous German city and rendered sterling services to the +Teuton invader during the present war. They intend to have recourse to +the same device as soon as hostilities have ceased. German trade +papers announced this to their readers and urged them to communicate +with the staff with a view to receiving information respecting ways +and means. + +One Berlin trade journal--the most widely circulated in the German +capital--had recently a great headline entitled: "How to keep up +German Exportation after the War!" After a preamble enumerating the +difficulties that would be thrown in the way of exporters by the +Allies, the article went on thus: "For some years to come the means of +extricating ourselves from this cruel predicament will consist in +transporting the work of manufacturing or refining our merchandise to +a neutral country. We are now in a position to offer information and +advice on this head to those German manufacturers who are working for +exportation, and we shall endeavour to extend our action in the +future. We advise all those manufacturers who are desirous of +developing their business in this way to enter into relations with us +without delay."[146] + + [146] _Zeitschrift des Handelsvertragsvereins_, March 30, + 1915. Cf. also _La Gazette de Lausanne_ and _L'Idea + Nazionale_, December 5, 1915. + +The device is simple, and has hitherto been efficacious. In +Switzerland the number of German firms is large and continues to +augment. They are branches of German houses, and their aim is to +further the interests of these. They mask their intentions by assuming +Swiss names and also by obtaining for their employees naturalization +papers in the little republic. How, it may be asked, do the Allies +propose to thwart these manoeuvres? They probably have not given the +matter a moment's serious consideration. A Swiss journal of +repute[147] published some time ago a characteristic letter received +by a Swiss business man from a German textile manufacturer. One +passage is worth reproducing: "The actual situation renders it +impossible for us to maintain relations with our former customers. +Hence, it is of the utmost importance for us to be informed respecting +the commercial and financial situation with a view to the resumption +of our intercourse in a lucrative form after this long interruption. +It is our intention, therefore, to have our products sold through a +Swiss branch by Swiss agents."[148] + + [147] _Neue Zurcher Zeitung._ + + [148] _Neue Zurcher Zeitung_, also _L'Idea Nazionale_, + December 5, 1915. + +With their incorrigible disposition to judge others by themselves, the +British people fancy that after the war a wave of liberalism will +sweep over Germany, demolish the strongholds of militarism there, and +reveal a pacific, level-headed nation with whom it may be possible to +hold friendly intercourse. This, to my thinking, is also a delusion. +Even if the Kaiser and his environment were dislodged from their +places, Germany's ideals, aims and strivings would remain unchanged. +But the Kaiser and his Government are minded to leave nothing to +chance. They, too, have their plans, which are simple and +comprehensive, and would appear to have escaped the notice of British +optimists. And yet they are well worth consideration. The Germans +themselves put the matter thus-- + +The enormous expenditure necessitated by the war will call for special +financial legislation of which the keynote will be found in +monopolies. Now, the present German Finance Minister, who is a banker +by training, intends that the monopolies to be created shall be +effected, not by the unaided resources of the State, but by its +co-operation with the interested business men and banks. On this basis +he is working at monopolies of cigarettes, life insurance and electric +power. This complex arrangement is facilitated by the machinery of the +banks and their peculiar activity. And here we touch upon one of the +main sources whence German organization after the war will draw its +vitality. It is on the operations of these financial institutions that +it behoves us to lay stress. They are so many magnetic centres which +attract nearly all the free capital of the country and then employ it +as they think fit. And one momentous consequence of this command of +money is the possession of almost unrestricted power over industrial +enterprises, present and future. For it depends on the banks to extend +these and to restrict the output of those in consonance with the +economic policy pursued by the State. + +Nor should it be forgotten that the power and influence of the banks +is not limited by the amount of capital they actually possess. Over +and above this they wield all the financial force conferred by the +vast amounts deposited with them by customers. This was evidenced in +the case of the Banca Commerciale in Italy, which had a working +capital of L6,240,000 in the year 1914. Now, of that sum only 2.5 per +cent. was owned by Germans, yet the bank itself and all the industries +dependent on it were exploited by the German Board of Directors.[149] +In the Fatherland we observe the same phenomenon. All the German banks +together, excepting the hypothecary institutions, owned L195,000,000 +sterling, about 44 per cent. of which belonged to the eight principal +banks of the empire.[150] Possessing only L86,050,000 of their own, +they disposed of L259,600,000 belonging to other people. + + [149] Giovanni Preziosi, _La Germania alla Conquista + d'Italia_, 2d edizione, p. 150. + + [150] Deutsche Bank, 248 million marks; Diskonto + Gesellschaft, 149 millions; Dresdner Bank, 261 millions; + Darmstaedter Bank, 192 millions; Berliner Handelsg. 145 + millions; Commerz- u. Diskonto Bank, 100 millions; + Nationalbank, 98 millions; Mitteldeutsche Kreditbank, 69 + million marks. + +One effect of the establishment of groups of monopolies will be to +increase the number of persons dependent for their livelihood on the +State. It is calculated that the total, including heads of families, +will amount to tens of millions. The corn monopoly will bring in five +million farmers, heads of families, who will have to look to the State +for the amount of their yearly income. For it is evident that the +Government will be "co-operating" not with the peasants, but with the +great landed proprietors. Now, these are the men whose backing is +indispensable, and has never been wanting, to the military and court +parties who are primarily responsible for the war. Once the wages of +the workmen and the interest on capital become dependent on the State, +the entire nation is but a vast machine worked by the men in power. To +suppose that these will lend a willing ear to the demands for +political liberty which are certain to be made after the conclusion of +peace is to expect the impossible. What will probably happen is a keen +struggle between the classes and the masses for the mastery, but until +it is decided in favour of the latter, the Germany of the future will +continue to be the Germany of to-day. + +In the meanwhile, the Teutons, despite their striking inferiority in +numbers and resources, have kept the Great Powers of the world at bay, +have defeated their armies, sunk their mercantile marine, occupied +their territory, drained their wealth, paralysed their trade and +deprived them of all the odds which they owed to circumstance. +Organization has thus more than made up for the seemingly overpowering +advantages possessed by the Allies at the outset. That it will +suddenly lose its worth during the remainder of the campaign is hardly +to be expected. The contingency which we may have to face, if we +continue to move at our present pace, is manifest to the observant +student of politics. + +By the average man and our "leaders of men" it is hardly even +suspected. Our easy-going optimism is largely the result of +temperament and partly, too, of presumptuous confidence born of past +luck, and in especial of the relief we feel at our escape from most of +the obvious dangers that menaced us at the outset of the war. There +has been no trouble over Ireland, no rising in India, no serious +defection in South Africa, no invasion of Egypt. And we irrationally +feel that these dark clouds, having drifted harmlessly past, the +others will follow them. It was said of the Swiss in mediaeval times, +that they were kept together by the bewilderment of men and the +providence of God, confusione hominum et providentia Dei. The same +might be truly predicated of the British people of to-day. + +But there is no reason for assuming that they will be thus +providentially cared for in the future. The Allies have not yet driven +the Germans out of Belgium, France, Serbia, Montenegro, Poland or +Kurland. Neither have they contrived to starve them into sueing for +peace. They talk glibly of exhausting them as though their own +resources were inexhaustible. They do well perhaps to make light of +the Zeppelins, but they pay far too little attention to the +submarines, and seem not to realize the magnitude of the losses which +these weapons have inflicted on our merchant shipping, nor to have +calculated how long it can hold out at the present rate of +destruction. Freights have increased enormously, and they have not yet +reached the highest point they are likely to attain. Imports have been +restricted, prices have gone up and taxation has increased. Time may +not be on the side of our enemies, but is it on ours? It is a fickle +ally at best, and to rely on its support is to lean on a split reed. + +Optimism of the unreasoning kind prevalent in Great Britain is +unwarranted, whether we confine our view to the actual campaign or +extend it to the greater struggle of which that forms but an episode. +Taking the former case first, one is struck with certain +considerations which, without inspiring dismay, ought surely to +preserve us from that excessive self-confidence which is too often a +hindrance to fruitful exertion. The financial burden and its relation +to the limits of the allied nations' capacity to bear it is a fit +subject for meditation when we feel uplifted in self-complacency. +Doubtless it is encouraging to watch the symptoms of slow exhaustion +displaying themselves in the central empires and to speculate on the +consequences of the further fall of the German mark. But these +consequences we are too apt to exaggerate. For we misjudge the +character, the staying powers, the ideals, the psychology of the +German people. We fancy that because they have been reduced from +comfort to hardship therefore they are on the verge of collapse. We +imagine that because their commercial and industrial classes are keen +on making money and ardently desire peace, they are also ready to +purchase it by acquiescing in conditions which would dispel their +dreams of world power. We feel certain that if Prussia and all the +German States received genuine parliamentary government, the costly +ambitions of the military party would forthwith be dispelled for all +time. + +It is by delusions such as these that the British people were +hoodwinked in the past, and it is by the same vain imaginings that +they may be victimized in the future. For they seem incapable of +gauging the German psyche. The two races meet each other in masks. The +apparent ingenuousness of the English-speaking Teuton is calculated to +throw the most vigilant Anglo-Saxon intelligence off its guard. We +have no psychological X-rays by which to pierce the peculiar racial +vesture in which the German soul is shrouded, nor are we endowed with +the gift of patient observation which might enable us to extract those +rays from facts. And so we stumble along, dealing with an imaginary +people whom we ourselves have created after our own image and +likeness, falling into fatal blunders and recommencing anew. + +It is true that the mark has fallen, and that the German financial +fabric is in a parlous condition. But that fabric is kept from +crumbling away by the war, just as the Egyptian papyrus is preserved +so long as it does not come into contact with the air. Moreover, +common prudence should impel us to find out at what a cost to +ourselves we have reduced the value of the mark. If financial +exhaustion be among the ways in which one group of belligerents may be +made to succumb, it is wise to ask whether it is the States which have +to pay gold for their huge requirements or those which can get almost +everything they need for paper that are likely to succumb first. + +The question is relevant, yet, because it has not been moved into the +foreground of discussion, there are few people who ponder on it. + +Personally, I am convinced that impecuniosity and loss of credit will +never bring the Germans to their knees. + +Great Britain has achieved wonders in the financial sphere during this +war, as the Allies and certain neutrals can testify. Our budgets are +monuments of the nation's spirit of self-sacrifice. But we have not +come scathless out of the ordeal. And besides our inevitable losses we +are suffering from criminal waste. No other country is so thriftless +as ours. In this respect we are a byword among the peoples of the +world. But we give no thought to the consequences. Yet the yearly +outlay on the one hand and the means of meeting it on the other hand +are calculable, and it would be well if those who rely upon Germany's +financial prostration would carefully reckon up and compare the two, +were it only for the sake of the sobering effect. On this aspect of +the problem it is needless to dwell further. It will compel close and +painful attention before the end of the campaign. + +Another point to which inadequate heed has been paid, is the lack of +working men. This dearth of labour is not felt in Germany or Austria, +because they have two million prisoners and two million Poles on whom +they can draw not only for agricultural work but also for skilled +labour. And the authorities of both those empires are employing their +war prisoners very freely. Here, as everywhere else, the Teuton is +enterprising. I have seen photographs of Russians in Germany harnessed +and employed as beasts of burden. At any rate, it is no secret that +from the latter half of the year 1915 Germany and Austria were far +ahead of Great Britain, France, Russia, the United States and Japan +_combined_ in the amount of munitions they turned out every week. And +they are still ahead of them to-day. This fact, which can be verified, +has an ominous ring. What it connotes is that our enemies have no +strikes, no conscientious objectors, no fiddling with obligatory +service, industrial or military. Each man is at his country's beck and +call. Germany is free from strikers, slackers and such-like +anti-social types. + +In Russia the want of working men is felt keenly. It is one of the +main elements of the sharp rise of prices there. In France, too, the +number of hands needed is very great, and the loss inflicted by their +withdrawal from the labour market is more sensible than the average +reader has any notion of. And far from being filled, these gaps are +becoming wider day by day. This shortage is a source of solicitude to +the Government of the Republic. + +What it portends may readily be imagined. It certainly compels us to +qualify the cheering assertion that time is on our side. What else it +implies may be left to the imagination of the reader. + +More serious still than the financial burden, or the dearth of +workmen, is the inadequacy of the mercantile marine to the needs of +the Allies in general, and of Great Britain in especial. To this +privation submarine warfare has contributed materially. And there is +not the slenderest ground for hope that the Germans will desist from +it during this campaign. On the contrary, they will intensify it. Of +the neutrals, some are too weak and others too timid to enter an +energetic protest against this violation of international law. The +freight-carrying capacity of the transports still available is less +than the British optimist realizes. How much less, it would be +unfruitful to inquire. It is enough to know that in this matter, too, +we had better seek a more helpful ally than time. Those who are most +conversant with these elements of the problem are haunted by a restive +consciousness of disappointment and apprehension. + +For the power, the independence, the destinies of the Empire are +interwoven with our command of the sea. On our merchant tonnage depend +our economic life, our army and navy, everything we have and are and +hope to be. That destroyed or paralysed, nothing remains but a memory. +And the Germans are working hard and not unsuccessfully to cripple it. +During the week ending April 13, 85,000 tons of British and neutral +shipping were destroyed. Since the beginning of the submarine blockade +over 3,000,000 tons have been sent to the bottom of the sea. On an +average 50,000 tons a week are being torpedoed or mined, and our +losses tend to augment rather than diminish. Nor is that all. Not only +is our merchant tonnage being whittled down below the minimum needed +for our strict requirements, but we are also being hindered from +utilizing the transports available. And herein lies a danger the full +significance of which has not yet received proper attention. Shortage +of labour is pleaded as the reason why effective measures have not +been adopted to fill the gaps made by the enemy submarines. And labour +is inadequate because the Government eschewes industrial as well as +military compulsion. It possesses the power, but shrinks from wielding +it. To my thinking, this is one of the symptoms of that madness with +which the gods strike a nation before destroying it. + +And the longer this process of--shall we call it mutual?--exhaustion +goes on, the more important grow the neutral States and the louder +sound their voices. They are like Jeshurun, who waxed fat and kicked. +Without special aptitudes for arithmetic one may calculate, with a +rough approach to accuracy, the time when the process of mutual +exhaustion will enable the neutrals to exert an absurdly +disproportionate and possibly dangerous influence over the +belligerents. That is a calculation which those optimists would do +well to make who tell us that all is well because "time is on our +side." + +It is still open to us to utilize our superior resources, realize our +latent strength, and ward off the dangers that beset us. But the first +advance towards the goal must be to face the facts, behold things and +persons as they are, and apply our new-found knowledge to the work of +self-rescue. Our conception of the nature of the contest in which we +are engaged must be recast. Our demands on our national leaders--not +those now in power who only mislead--must be greatly enlarged. Truth, +however bitter, must take the place of fancy. Ideas and institutions +incongruous with the new social and political conditions must be +displaced. The nation's aims and policy should be stated boldly and +clearly, and adequate machinery set up to achieve them. In a word, +system will have to be substituted for confusion, method for +haphazard. Destitute of a great or strong man, it behoves us to +imitate our enemy and create a vast organization with branches all +over the empire. But the influence of the government ever since the +outbreak of the war has militated against all those reforms. + +If these changes had been effected at the outset the story of the +present campaign would have been different from what it is. A group of +belligerents representing only 5,921,000 square kilometres of +territory and 150,199,000 inhabitants, or, say, 4 per cent. of dry +land and 9.1 per cent. of human beings, would not have held its own +for twenty-one months against a group disposing of 68,031,000 square +kilometres of territory and a population of 770,060,000, or 46 per +cent. of the land on the globe and 47 per cent. of the human race. +Providence has bestowed upon the Allies the wherewithal to attain +their legitimate ends. The Allies' leaders are frittering them away. + +For the thirty years of preparation do not afford us an adequate +explanation of the Teuton superiority. The clue is to be found in the +psychological factor. Germany is wholly alive, physically, +intellectually and psychically. And she lives in the present and +future. We either drowse or vegetate in and for the past. She has the +decisive advantage of possessing organization and organizers. Therein +lies the secret of her sustained success. The Allies lack both, and +are hardly conscious of the necessity of making good the deficiency. +Therein lies their weakness. It has made itself felt throughout the +campaign and will determine the upshot of the war. And in the +politico-economic struggle that will follow the war, it is the same +psychological factor which the Allies rate so low that will decide the +final issue. + +Unless we wake up to the reality and readjust our ideas and methods to +that--and of such awakening there is as yet no sure token--the outcome +of the present war will be a draw, and the final upshot of the larger +contest will be our utter defeat. No journalistic optimism, no +ministerial magniloquence can alter that. These contingencies are +already fullfronting us, as we shall soon learn to our cost, and the +people who are veiling them from the public view, however praiseworthy +their intentions may be, are leading the nation to ruin. And if we +continue to uphold our present chiefs and methods national disaster is +as inevitable as destiny. But it is well to remember that it is not +Fate that is pursuing us; it is we who are overtaking Fate. + + + + + +End of Project Gutenberg's England and Germany, by Emile Joseph Dillon + +*** END OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK ENGLAND AND GERMANY *** + +***** This file should be named 29338.txt or 29338.zip ***** +This and all associated files of various formats will be found in: + https://www.gutenberg.org/2/9/3/3/29338/ + +Produced by Irma Spehar and the Online Distributed +Proofreading Team at https://www.pgdp.net (This file was +produced from images generously made available by The +Internet Archive/American Libraries.) + + +Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions +will be renamed. + +Creating the works from public domain print editions means that no +one owns a United States copyright in these works, so the Foundation +(and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United States without +permission and without paying copyright royalties. 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