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+The Project Gutenberg EBook of The Shepherd of Banbury's Rules to Judge of
+the Changes of the Weather, Grounded on Forty Years' Experience, by John Claridge
+
+This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with
+almost no restrictions whatsoever.  You may copy it, give it away or
+re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included
+with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org
+
+
+Title: The Shepherd of Banbury's Rules to Judge of the Changes of the Weather, Grounded on Forty Years' Experience
+
+Author: John Claridge
+
+Release Date: January 4, 2008 [EBook #24163]
+
+Language: English
+
+Character set encoding: ASCII
+
+*** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE SHEPHERD OF BANBURY'S ***
+
+
+
+
+Produced by Robin Monks, The Internet Archive and the
+Online Distributed Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net
+(This book was produced from scanned images of public
+domain material from the Google Print project.)
+
+
+
+
+
+
+THE
+
+SHEPHERD
+
+OF
+
+BANBURY'S RULES
+
+To judge of the
+
+CHANGES of the WEATHER,
+
+Grounded on Forty Years' EXPERIENCE;
+
+By which you may know
+
+The WEATHER for several Days to come,
+and in some Cases for Months.
+
+To which is added
+
+A Rational ACCOUNT of the CAUSES of
+such Alterations, the Nature of Wind,
+Rain, Snow, &c.
+
+
+
+By _JOHN CLARIDGE_, Shepherd.
+
+
+
+A NEW EDITION, Corrected.
+
+
+_L O N D O N_:
+Printed for
+THOMAS HURST, EDWARD CHANCE, & Co.,
+65, _St. Paul's Church-Yard._
+1827.
+
+J. M'Creery, Tooks Court,
+Chancery Lane, London.
+
+
+
+
+INTRODUCTION.
+
+
+AS we very justly esteem it a fit Tribute of Admiration to adorn
+natural Curiosities, by setting them as richly and as advantageously as
+art can direct, so the following Observations of the Shepherd of
+_Banbury_ have appeared to me worthy of being presented to the Eye of
+the Public, with all the Lustre that it was in my Power to give them.
+It is one thing to observe, and another to reason upon Observations,
+and it very rarely happens that both can be taken into the Compass of
+one Man's Life. We ought therefore to consider it as a very lucky
+Incident, when the Observations of another Man, upon whom we can
+depend, fall into our Hands, and enable us to add natural Experience to
+the Notions derived to us from Books of Philosophy.
+
+THERE is a Degree of Pedantry in Desarts as well as Colleges. Men who
+derive their Knowledge entirely from Experience are apt to despise what
+they call Book Learning, and Men of great Reading are as apt to fall
+into a less excusable mistake, that of taking the Knowledge of Words
+for the Knowledge of Things; whereas there are not any two points more
+opposite in Nature, since we very rarely see, that either true Scholars
+are talkative, or that talkative Men are true Scholars.
+
+THE Shepherd, whose sole Business it is to observe what has a Reference
+to the Flock under his Care, who spends all his Days and many of his
+Nights in the open Air, and under the wide spread Canopy of Heaven, is
+in a Manner obliged to take particular Notice of the Alterations of the
+Weather, and when once he comes to take a Pleasure in making such
+Observations, it is amazing how great a Progress he makes in them, and
+to how great a Certainty at last he arrives by mere dint of comparing
+Signs and Events, and correcting one Remark by another. Every thing in
+Time becomes to him a Sort of Weather-Gage. The Sun, the Moon, the
+Stars, the Clouds, the Winds, the Mists, the Trees, the Flowers, the
+Herbs, and almost every Animal with which he is acquainted. All these I
+say become to such a person Instruments of real Knowledge.
+
+THERE are a Sort of half wise People, who from the Consideration of the
+Distances of Things, are apt to treat such Prognostications, as they
+phrase them, with much Contempt. They can see no Connexion between a
+Cat's washing her Face, and the Sky's being overspread with Clouds, and
+therefore they boldly pronounce that the one has no Relation to the
+other. Yet the same People will readily own that the fluttering of the
+Flame of a Candle is a certain token of Wind, which however is not
+discernible by their Feeling; because it lies within the Compass of
+their Understanding to discern that this Fluctuation of the Flame is
+caused by the Wind acting upon it, and therefore they are inclined to
+believe this, though it does not fall actually under the Cognizance of
+their Senses. But a Man of a larger Compass of Knowledge, who is
+acquainted with the Nature and Qualities of the Air, and knows what an
+Effect any Alterations in the Weight, the Dryness, or the Humidity of
+it has upon all animal Bodies, easily perceives the Reason why other
+Animals are much sooner sensible of any Alterations that happen in that
+Element than Men, and therefore to him the cawing of Ravens, the
+chattering of Swallows, and a Cat's washing her Face are not
+superstitious Signs, but natural tokens (like that of the Candle's
+fluttering) of a Change of Weather, and as such they have been thought
+worthy of Notice by _Aristotle_, _Virgil_, _Pliny_, and all the wisest
+and gravest Writers of Antiquity.
+
+BUT still a few slight and trivial Observations of this Kind, and such
+as are in the Power of every Man to make, go but a very little Way in
+furnishing us with a useful Knowledge of the Indications of the
+Weather. To supply these, and to have constantly at Hand the Means of
+judging of these Alterations, Men of great Genius have invented, and
+wonderful Inventions they are! Instruments for measuring the Heat, the
+Cold, the Weight, the Dryness, and the Humidity of the Air, with great
+Exactness, and upon these they reason as to the changes of Weather with
+great Accuracy and Certainty. It would undoubtedly be a great Folly to
+pretend to question either the Truth of their Observations, or the
+Usefulness of them: but then we may have leave to consider how far, and
+to how great a Degree they are useful. The Thermometer measures exactly
+the Degrees of Heat, but the Air must be hot to such or such a Degree
+before it is discerned by this Instrument. The barometer indicates the
+Weight of the Air, and the rising and falling of the Quicksilver
+expresses the Alterations in its Weight with wonderful Nicety, but then
+those Alterations are the Cause of this. In like manner the Hygrometer,
+or Hygroscope, measures the Dryness or the Humidity of the Air very
+plainly and very exactly, but the Weather must alter, must become dryer
+or moister than it was, before these Alterations are visible; and
+therefore, however ingenious, however curious, however useful these
+Instruments may be in other Respects, they undoubtedly contribute very
+little to the prognosticating a Change of Weather at a Distance; and it
+is from the Experience of this, that they are so little esteemed, so
+lightly regarded by the common People.
+
+OUR Shepherd's Observations are of quite another Nature, most of them
+give us a Day's Notice, many a Week's, and some extend to several
+Months' Prognostication of the Changes of the Weather, and of how great
+Use these may be to all Ranks and Degrees of People, to the sedentary
+Valetudinarian, as well as the active Traveller, to the Sportsman who
+pursues his Game, as well as to the industrious Husbandman who
+constantly follows his Labour; in short, to every Man in every
+Situation in some Degree or other, is so very clear and intelligible,
+that it would, be a mere waste of Words, and a very idle display of
+Rhetoric, to attempt the making it clearer. Every Man living would be
+glad to foresee the Alterations of Weather if he could, and
+consequently to most People, if not to all, these Observations,
+grounded on no less than forty Years' Experience, cannot but be
+acceptable.
+
+TO make the best use of one's Talent, and to employ the Lights derived
+from the Station in which Providence has placed one for the Benefit of
+Mankind, is undoubtedly discharging one's Duty, answering the End of
+our Creation, and corresponding with the OEconomy of Nature, which
+does nothing in vain. This Proposition is equally true, let a Man's
+Station be what it will. It is the Manner in which we perform, and not
+the Character, that makes the Player, and in this Sense what Man is not
+a Player? Here then is an Instance of one who has for many Years
+studied his Part, and now communicates his Discoveries freely. In a
+Physician, in a Philosopher, in a Mathematician, this would be highly
+commendable, and why not in a Shepherd? We do not cast our own Parts in
+the Drama of Life; no, this is performed by the great Author of Nature.
+He who adjusted every Thing on Earth with such Beauty and Harmony, he
+who taught the Heavenly Bodies to move; the same distributed their
+several Offices to Men. May we not therefore suppose that every Man's
+Part is well cast, and that our Abilities are exactly proportioned to
+our Stations? If so, he who does all he can, does all that ought to be
+expected from him, and merits from impartial Judges the most general
+and just Applause. To be convinced of this, we need not only reflect on
+the narrow and selfish Conduct of some, who either by Study or by
+Chance, have acquired certain valuable Secrets, which with the utmost
+Industry they conceal in order to be the more admired, or that they may
+render them beneficial to themselves. How contrary the Conduct of our
+Shepherd! His Pains were all his own, but the Fruit of them he thus
+generously offers to the Public. Good Sense and the dictates of Nature
+taught him this Maxim, _That what might benefit_ many, _should not be
+concealed by_ one _from Views of_ Profit _or of_ Pride.
+
+IN my Remarks upon the Shepherd's Rules, I have sometimes endeavoured
+to support them by Authorities, which I must confess would have been of
+little Use if the Author had been a Person of Learning; but when it is
+considered that these Observations were purely the Effect of his own
+Attention and Experience, it certainly strengthens them, and adds
+greatly to their Credit that they have been esteemed evident Signs of
+the same Effects, by the greatest Masters in this Kind of Science. The
+Art of prognosticating the Weather may be considered as a Kind of
+decyphering, and in that Art it is always allowed a point of great
+Consequence, when several Masters therein agree as to the meaning of a
+Character, and it is from thence very justly presumed that this
+Character is rightly decyphered.
+
+I have also endeavoured to explain most of his Observations, according
+to the Rules of the new Philosophy, which, as it is grounded upon.
+Experiments, so it generally speaking enables us to give a fair and
+rational Account of almost all the Phaenomena taken notice of by the
+Shepherd of _Banbury_.
+
+I likewise have added some other Rules in Relation to the Weather,
+taken from the common sayings of our Country People, and from old
+_English_ Books of Husbandry, but I have distinguished all these from
+the Observations themselves, so that the Reader will have no Trouble to
+discern the Text from the Commentary, or to know what belongs to the
+Shepherd of _Banbury_, and what to the Editor of his Observations. This
+I think may serve by the Way of Introduction, let us now proceed to the
+Rules themselves.
+
+
+
+
+THE
+
+_Country Calendar_,
+
+OR THE
+
+SHEPHERD OF BANBURY's
+
+OBSERVATIONS.
+
+
+I.
+
+SUN. _If the Sun rise red and firey._ } Wind and Rain.
+
+THE Reason of this Appearance is, because the Sun shines through a
+large Mass of Vapours, which occasions that red Colour that has been
+always esteemed a Sign of Rain, especially if the Face of the Sun
+appear bigger than it ought, for then in a few Hours the Clouds will
+grow black, and be condensed into Rain, sudden and sharp, if in the
+Summer, but settled and moderate if in Winter.
+
+THE old _English_ Rule published in our first Almanacks agrees exactly
+with our Author's Observation.
+
+    If red the Sun begins his Race,
+    Be sure that Rain will fall apace.
+
+IF the Reader would see this elegantly described, the Master of Poets
+hath it thus.[_a_]
+
+    Above the Rest, the Sun, who never lies,
+    Foretels the Change of Weather in the Skies;
+    For if he rise unwilling to his Race,
+    Clouds on his Brow, and Spots upon his Face,
+    Or if thro' Mists he shoots his sullen Beams,
+    Frugal of light, in loose and straggling Streams,
+    Suspect a drizzling Day and southern Rain,
+    Fatal to Fruits and Flocks, and promis'd Grain.
+
+      [Footnote _a_:
+
+      Sol quoque & exoriens, & cum se condit in undas,
+      _Signa_ dabit: _Solem_ certissima signa sequuntur,
+      Et quae Mane refert, & quae surgentibus _Astris_,
+      Ille ubi nascentem _maculis_ variaverit Ortum
+      Concavus in Nubem, medioque refugerit Orbe;
+      Suspecti tibi sint _Imbres_. Namque urget ab alto
+      Arboribusque satisque Notus Pecorique sinister.
+
+                              Virgil. Georgic. lib. i. v. 438.]
+
+
+II.
+
+_If cloudy, and it soon decrease._ } Certain fair Weather.
+
+I Conceive the Reason of this to be, that the Vapours being then
+specifically lighter than the Air, are still rising upwards, in which
+they are assisted by the Heat of the Sun Beams, agreeable to the Notion
+of Dr. _Derham_, who observes, that after much cloudy Weather, it is
+always fair before it rains, because the watery Vapours are not
+condensed till they reach the cold upper Region, agreeable to the
+common _English_ saying,
+
+    The Evening red, and Morning grey,
+    Is a Sign of a fair Day.
+
+IT is also an Observation, of _Pliny's_ in his natural History.[_b_]
+
+      [Footnote _b_: Nat. Hist. lib. xviii. cap. 35.]
+
+SI ab ortu solis repellentur Nubes, & ad occasum abibunt, _Serenitatem_
+denunciabunt,
+
+                               That is,
+
+IF at Sun rising the Clouds are driven away, and retire as it were to
+the _West_, this denotes fair Weather.
+
+THERE is an old Adage to this Purpose, which, because it is very
+prettily expressed, deserves our notice, _viz._
+
+    A red Evening and a grey Morning,
+    Sets the Pilgrim a Walking.
+
+                          In _French_ thus.
+
+    Le rogue Soir, & blanc Matin;
+    Font rejouvir le Pelerin.
+
+                     The _Italians_ say the same.
+
+    Sera rosa, & nigro Matino;
+    Allegra il Peregrino.
+
+
+III.
+
+CLOUDS _Small and round, like a   }
+Dappley-grey, with a_ North-Wind. } Fair Weather for 2 or 3 Days.
+
+THIS is differently expressed by other Authors. My Lord _Bacon_ tells
+us, that if Clouds appear white, and drive to the _N. W._ it is a Sign
+of several Days fair Weather.
+
+OUR old _English_ Almanacks have a Maxim to this Purpose.
+
+    If woolly Fleeces spread the Heavenly Way,
+    Be sure no Rain disturbs the Summer Day.
+
+AND _Pliny_ to the same Purpose.[_c_]
+
+      [Footnote _c_: Ubi supra.]
+
+SI Sol oriens cingetur Orbe, & postea totus defluxerit aequaliter,
+_Serenitatem_ dabit.
+
+                               That is,
+
+IF the rising Sun be incompassed with an Iris, or Circle of white
+Clouds, and they equally fly away, this is a Sign of fair Weather.
+
+THERE is another _English_ Proverb worth remembering.
+
+    In the Decay of the Moon,
+    A cloudy Morning bodes a fair Afternoon.
+
+
+IV.
+
+_Large like Rocks._----Great Showers.
+
+IN the old Almanacks we have this Sign of the Weather thus expressed.
+
+    When Clouds appear like Rocks and Towers,
+    The Earth's refresh'd by frequent Showers.
+
+THE Reason of this seems to be, that the watery Vapours are then
+condensed, or condensing, which gives them this rough and ragged
+Appearance, and as soon as the thin Films that retain the Water are
+broke by this Pressure, these heavy Clouds descend in Rain.
+
+THESE Observations, as well as some that follow, are agreeable to all
+Climates, which is the Reason that they appear in so many different
+Authors, and have been taken notice of in so many Ages. This however
+does not at all diminish the Credit, or the Merit of our Shepherd's
+Observations, who certainly drew them not from Books, but from his own
+Experience, and therefore their agreeing so well with the Rules of
+other great Masters, ought to establish his Authority in such Cases as
+are not supported by alike concurrence from ancient or modern Writers,
+the Testimony of Nature is always sufficient Evidence.
+
+
+V.
+
+_If small Clouds increase_----Much Rain.
+
+THIS and the following Observation cannot well be understood, without
+giving some Account of Clouds in general. The Atmosphere is supposed to
+extend itself about five Miles round this Globe of Earth, and within
+that Space move all kind of Vapours exhaled by the Sun's Force, or
+protruded by the subterraneous Heat. The ascending of these Vapours
+into the Air, depends upon many things, and therefore as different as
+its Causes; for instance, their ascent depends in the first place on
+the degree of Heat with which they are drawn up or forced out; next
+upon the Lightness of the Vapours themselves; thirdly, on the Density
+or Rarity of the Air through which they pass; and lastly, on the Force
+and Direction of the Winds, which they encounter in their Passage.
+
+ACCORDING to the Nature of these Vapours, and the Circumstance
+attending their Passage, they appear to us differently below. For if
+they be extremely subtile they mount very high, and there, according to
+the Sentiment of Sir _Isaac Newton_, form by Refraction the Azure, or
+blue Colour, that over-spreads the Sky in serene Weather. Clouds, while
+they remain visible, do not rise above the Height of a Mile; and we
+always observe, that the highest are of a very light Colour, and hardly
+seen. If, therefore, small Clouds increase, it shews, that the
+Disposition of the Air is such, as that these Clouds cannot rise
+therein, either from their own Weight, the want of a protrusive Force,
+or from the falling of the Wind, which in cloudy Weather is always a
+Sign of Rain.
+
+
+VI.
+
+_If large Clouds decrease_----Fair Weather.
+
+THE same kind of Reasoning accounts very clearly for this Prognostick,
+since it shews, that the Vapours are either exhaled by the Sun's Heat,
+or are driven off by Winds, and so resolved into smaller Clouds,
+capable of ascending higher in the Atmosphere; all which are
+Circumstances that secure us from Rain, and afford us a certainty of
+fair Weather.
+
+IT is, however, to be observed, that large black Clouds are frequently,
+in a Summer Evening, melted into Dews; and this much more frequently
+happens in the Autumn, because the Evenings are then cooler, and the
+Vapours more easily condensed for that Reason. In all Observations of
+this Sort, there is a great degree of Prudence and good Sense required
+to apply them, and hence it very frequently happens that such
+Observations are condemned as treacherous and abusive, merely because
+those who would employ them want the Sagacity which is requisite to
+understand them clearly.
+
+
+VII.
+
+MISTS. _If they rise in low Ground and soon vanish._ } Fair Weather.
+
+THIS is a sure Sign and very well expressed, that is, clearly, and, in
+few Words, which is the Excellency of such Aphorisms. In order to be
+convinced of its good Sense and Certainty, we must consider a little
+what _Mists_ are, whence they rise, and what becomes of them.
+
+MISTS are, strictly speaking, uncompacted Exhalations, which while they
+fleet near the Earth are styled _Mists_, but when they ascend into the
+Air, are called _Clouds_. If therefore, rising out of low Ground, they
+are driven along the Plain, and are soon lost to the Sight, it must
+arise from some of these Causes. That there is an Air abroad sufficient
+to divide and resolve them, or the Heat of the Sun has been strong
+enough to exhale them, that is, to rarify them, so as to render them
+lighter than the Air through which they were to pass. Whichever way
+this happens the Maxim remains unimpeached.
+
+
+VIII.
+
+_If they rise to the Hill-tops._ } Rain in a Day or two.
+
+WHEN Mists are very, heavy in themselves, and rise only by the Action
+of that protrusive Force, exerted by the subterranean Fire, they can
+rise no higher than where the Gravitation becomes superior to that
+protrusive force, for then they descend again by their own Weight, and
+this occasions the Appearance mentioned in the Observation of their
+hanging upon Hill-tops, where they are very soon condensed, and fall
+down in Rain.
+
+THERE was formerly a very idle and ill grounded Distinction between
+moist and dry Exhalations, whereas in Truth all Exhalations are moist,
+or in other Words are watery Steams thrown off by Bodies respectively
+dry, and the former Distinction was invented only to solve these
+Phaenomena of which we have been speaking, that is, the Mist rising and,
+dispersing without Rain, and the Mist condensed and resolved into Rain,
+which as I have shewn may be much better explained without any such
+Distinction.
+
+
+IX.
+
+_A general Mist before the Sun }
+rises, near the full Moon._    } Fair Weather.
+
+THIS is a general and a very extensive Observation, which enables us to
+judge of the Weather for about a Fortnight, and there is very great
+Reason to believe that it will very rarely deceive us. In order to
+convince the Reader of this, it will be necessary to explain, as far as
+we are able, the Causes of this.
+
+MISTS are observed to happen when the Mercury in a Barometer is either
+very low of very high. They happen when it is high after the Region of
+the Air has continued calm a good while, and in the mean time a great
+Abundance of Vapours and Exhalations have been accumulated, making the
+Air dark by their quantity, and the disorderly Disposition of their
+parts. They happen when the Mercury is low, sometimes because the
+Rarity of the Air renders it unable to sustain the Vapours, which
+therefore descend and fall through it.
+
+BUT none of these Cases agree with the Observation at the Head of the
+Page, and therefore to form a true judgment of the Weather, we must
+distinguish between them and the Case which explains the Observation.
+
+
+X.
+
+_If in the new Moon._----Rain in the old.
+
+WHEN Exhalations rise copiously from the Earth into the Region of the
+Air, and the Air itself is in a proper Disposition, they ascend to a
+great Height, and continue a long Time before they are condensed, which
+accounts very clearly and philosophically for the Interval of fair
+Weather between the rising of these Mists, and their falling down again
+in Showers. Their ascending about Sun-rise is a Proof that the Air is
+thin, but at the same time of a Force sufficient to sustain them, since
+if the Mists were not specifically lighter than the Air itself they
+could not ascend.
+
+WHEN the Moon is at the full, and such Exhalations rise plentifully,
+the time necessary for them to float in the Atmosphere, before they are
+condensed into Clouds and Rain, extends, generally speaking, beyond the
+Period of that Moon, and therefore the Observation directs us to expect
+_fair Weather_.
+
+
+XI.
+
+_If in the old._----Rain in the New.
+
+BUT as it is observed not only in this Climate, but all the World over,
+that great Changes of Weather happen near the Change of the Moon, it
+follows that this is the Season when these Exhalations that ascend so
+plentifully at Sun-rising are condensed, and consequently is the Season
+when we ought to expect _Rain_.
+
+IF therefore the Exhalations rise in the new Moon, it is a Sign that
+the Air is in a fit disposition to sustain and support them for a
+considerable Time, and therefore we have Reason to expect that they
+should continue floating till the next regular change of Weather, that
+is, till the old of the Moon, or rather till towards the next Change,
+and therefore the Observation is very cautiously and very properly
+worded, directing us to expect Rain _in_ the old, and _in_ the new, and
+not _at_ the old or new, because it is observed that these Changes of
+Weather happen not exactly _at_ the Change of the Moon, but a Day or
+two before or after, of which the Reader will meet with many Examples
+in Captain _Dampier's_ History of Winds and Storms at Sea.
+
+
+XII.
+
+WINDS. _Observe, that in eight Years' Time there is as much South
+       West Wind, as North East, and consequently as many wet Years
+       as dry._
+
+THIS must be allowed a very extraordinary Aphorism from a Country
+Shepherd, but at the same Time it is very agreeable to the Observations
+of Dr. _Hooke_, Dr. _Derham_, Dr. _Grew_, and other able Naturalists,
+who with unwearied Pains and Diligence have calculated the Quantity of
+Rain falling in one Year, and compared it with what fell in another.
+Lord _Bacon_, that Honour to our Nation and the Age which produced him,
+informs us, that it was an old Opinion there was a total Revolution of
+the Weather once in forty Years, and wishes it was inquired into. I
+cannot tell whether this has ever been done or not, but I think there
+is good Reason to conclude that there is a natural Balance established
+of wet and dry Weather, as of Light and Darkness, Heat and Cold, and
+other such like Variations.
+
+IT may not be amiss to caution the Reader against a Mistake into which
+the Manner of this Rule being stated may easily lead him. It is this,
+that South West Winds cause Rain, and North East Winds fair Weather,
+which however is not a Thing clear or certain by any means. This indeed
+is true, that South West Winds and Rain, North East Winds and fair
+Weather come together, generally speaking. But the Question is, which
+causes the other, and a more difficult Question cannot easily be
+stated, because there seems to be Facts on both sides. South West Winds
+seldom continue long without Rain, this seems to prove the affirmative,
+but on the other Hand, when in hard Weather, Rain begins to fall, the
+Wind commonly veers to the South West, this looks as if the Rain caused
+the Wind.
+
+BUT to keep close to the Shepherd's Observation. There is one Thing
+seems strongly to confirm it, which is this, that in any given Place
+the Quantity of Rain one Year with another is found to be the same by
+Experience, according to which the following Table has been calculated,
+for the mean Quantity of Rain falling one Year with another in those
+Places that are mentioned, and on this Proportion the other seems to be
+founded.
+
+    At Harlem      24 Inches
+       Delf        27
+       Dort        40
+       Middleburg  33
+       Paris       20
+       Lyons       37
+       Rome        20
+       Padua       37-1/2
+       Pisa        34-1/4
+       Ulm         27
+       Berlin      19-1/2
+    In Lancashire  40
+       Essex       19-1/2
+
+
+XIII.
+
+_When the Wind turns to North East, and it continues two Days
+without Rain, and does not turn South the third Day, nor Rain the
+third Day, it is likely to continue North East for eight or nine
+Days_, all fair; _and then to come to the South again_.
+
+IN my Opinion this and the subsequent Remarks depend entirely upon
+Observations, and may serve rather to found an Hypothesis, than seem be
+deduced from one. That the Variations of the Wind depend on certain
+Causes, and may consequently be reduced to Rules, is highly probable,
+and such Observations as these render it in a manner certain. But to
+explore these Causes, and to explain them in such a manner as to
+account for these Phaenomena in a satisfactory manner, requires not only
+great Sagacity but much Experience, and many Years' Observation, which,
+however, considering the great Benefits that would result to Mankind
+from establishing such a THEORY, would be Time well bestowed.
+
+WE may however easily conceive that a constant North East Wind must be
+accompanied with fair Weather. For whatever the causes of Winds may be,
+yet on this side the Equator, a strong and settled North East always
+buoys up the Clouds and keeps them suspended. This has been long
+observed by, and passes for a settled point amongst Seamen. The Reason
+of it however cannot be so easily assigned, at least a satisfactory
+Reason, for as to Suppositions, every fanciful Man can furnish them at
+Pleasure.
+
+THIS, as well as the following Observations, very plainly and clearly
+prove, that in this Part of the World fair Weather attends one Wind,
+and wet another, but which is the Cause and which the Effect, or
+whether both are not the Effects of some other Cause, I pretend not
+absolutely to determine. But inasmuch as it is certainly known, that
+Rains attend in other Climates those Winds that are here attended with
+fair Weather, it seems more agreeable to suppose that rainy Weather is
+occasioned chiefly by West Winds, because loaded with moist Vapours
+from the Sea.
+
+
+XIV.
+
+_If it turn out again out of the South to the North East with Rain,
+and continues in the North East two Days without Rain, and neither
+turns South nor rains the third Day_, it is like to continue North
+East for two or three months.
+
+_The Wind will finish these Turns in three Weeks._
+
+THIS Observation is of the same nature with the former, and is plainly
+deduced from long experience. Our Author seems to contradict himself in
+saying that these Winds finish their Turns in three Weeks, but his true
+Meaning certainly is, that they are \about three Weeks in turning from
+the South to the North East again. Some very great men have laid it
+down as a thing certain, that the Variations of the Wind are to be
+accounted for by the Alteration of the Balance of the Air, occasioned
+by the different Effects of Heat and Cold; but other Writers again
+insist very copiously on the Effects which Winds have upon the Air, and
+thus confound us in a Circle of Causes and Effects, whence it is plain
+that they do not thoroughly understand the Subject themselves, and
+therefore it is no Wonder that they are not able to explain it to
+others.
+
+IN some Parts of the World, and especially between the Tropicks, the
+Winds are regular, and therefore our Philosophers seem to talk more
+rationally about them. But in our Northern Countries the Alterations of
+the Wind are so frequent, sudden, and often so little agreeable to the
+Season, that such general Reasonings will by no Means serve to explain
+them. It is however very reasonable to suppose that the same general
+Cause prevails here as between the Tropics, but with less Certainty,
+because the Power of the Sun is not so great, and the Determinations of
+the Winds depend on the Situation of Mountains, Rocks, and Woods, which
+direct the Air driving against them into certain Courses, so that it is
+impossible to explain, or indeed to judge of the Course of the Winds
+till the Country is thoroughly known, and all those Eminences that can
+affect the Winds are well considered.
+
+FROM these Reflections the Value of our Shepherd's Observations will
+clearly appear. He was not Philosopher enough to talk in this Style,
+but by a long and steady Attention he came to know, experimentally,
+what perhaps few Philosophers, with all their Sagacity, would have been
+able to have found out.
+
+
+XV.
+
+S. W. WINDS. _After a northerly Wind for the most Part two months
+             or more, and then coming South, there are usually_
+             three or four fair Days at first, and then, on the fourth
+             or fifth Day, comes Rain, _or else the Wind turns North
+             again_, and continues dry.
+
+THIS is likewise a very judicious and very useful Observation, and yet
+it is not a difficult matter to account for it. It is a common
+Observation, and a very true one, that there is usually fair Weather
+before a settled course of Rain. The Winds that bring the dark rainy
+Clouds that obscure the Sky, and cause dull cloudy Weather, often raise
+these Vapours to such a height, that they are attracted into the cold
+Region above our Sight, till being condensed there, they fall down upon
+us again in Snow or Rain, according to our Author's Observation.
+
+BUT if, after a seeming Tendency to Rain, there follow several Days of
+fine Weather, it is a certain Indication that the Temper of the Air is
+altered, and that these Vapours had been driven off before they had
+time to condense, which is confirmed by the Change of the Wind on such
+Occasions.
+
+ALL these Observations are to be understood in a proper Latitude, and
+not strictly and according to the very Letter. For Rain may fall the
+sixth or seventh Day, or the Wind may change the second or third.
+Besides, a Man who would make use of these Observations in the Country,
+must consider attentively the Situation of the Place where he lives,
+the bearing of the Sea, Marshes, Ponds, Lakes, Woods, Mountains, Rocks,
+_&c._ For without making proper Allowances for these, all such
+Observations on the Weather will be apt to fail him.
+
+
+XVI.
+
+_If it return to the South within a Day or two without Rain, and turn
+Northward with Rain, and return to the South, in one or two Days, as
+before, two or three Times together after this Sort_, then it is
+like to be in the South, or South West, two or three Months together,
+_as it was in the North before_.
+
+_The Winds will finish these Turns in a Fortnight._
+
+THIS may appear a little perplexed to an ordinary Reader, but a little
+Attention will make it very clear and plain; and whoever considers what
+mighty Uses may be made of the Foresight of Weather for a Month or two,
+will not think this Labour ill bestowed. I must confess I look upon
+these three Rules in Relation to the Wind as the most useful in the
+whole Collection. Especially to Farmers and Country People, to whom
+they are of the greatest Consequence.
+
+BUT it is a common Thing for such People to say, what Certainty is
+there that these Rules will prove true, what Probability is there that
+the Wind should continue so long in one Quarter, and then so long in
+another, how shall we be satisfied that there is any truth in this; or,
+if we cannot be satisfied as to the Truth of it, why should we depend
+upon any such like Observations?
+
+TO this I answer, that they may have reasonable Satisfaction given them
+on this Head. Some of our great Naturalists, who had kept Journals of
+the Weather for many Years, have found that the same Wind blows every
+Year very near the same number of Days, and that there is a regular
+Continuance of different Winds annually in every Country. For Instance,
+
+At _Utrecht_ they blow thus,
+
+    The N. Wind     42 Days.
+    The N. W.       33
+    The W.          77
+    The S. W.       58
+    The South       33
+    The S. E.       26
+    The E.          53
+    The N. E.       43
+                   ---
+                   365
+
+IT is a Thing plain to every Capacity, that a Journal or Diary of the
+Winds may be kept any where, and if from such a Journal it appears that
+a given Wind blows for a certain Number of Days, then it follows, that
+if these can be determined with Certainty, the Time of their blowing
+may also be determined, at least with great Probability, which is as
+satisfactory an Answer as can be justly expected, because it shews that
+there is just and rational Ground for confiding in such Observations,
+when confirmed by long Experience.
+
+
+XVII.
+
+_Fair Weather for a Week, with a Southern Wind, is like to_
+produce a great Drought, _if there has been much Rain out of the
+South before. The Wind usually turns from North to South, with a quiet
+Wind without Rain, but returns to the North, with a strong Wind and
+Rain; the strongest Winds are when it turns from South, to North by
+West._
+
+N. B. _When the North Wind first clears the Air (which is usually
+once a Week) be sure of a fair Day or two._
+
+OBSERVATIONS of this Nature upon Winds have employed the ablest Heads
+in all Ages. _Pliny_ the great Naturalist has left us a great deal upon
+this Subject, which plainly proves that it has been the Opinion of the
+ablest and wisest Men that Study and Experience might reduce even
+Things of such seeming Incertainty under stated Rules, and within the
+Bounds of a regular System. For Instance he tells us.
+
+    "IN _Africa_ the South Wind is serene, the North East cloudy.
+    All the Winds have their Turns. To judge rationally of their
+    Changes, the fourth Day of the Moon is to be regarded.--The South
+    Wind blows stronger than the North East, because the former rises
+    from the Bottom, whereas the latter comes from the Surface of the
+    Sea. It is for this Reason that those Earthquakes are most
+    dangerous that follow after a South Wind."
+
+IN order to understand this Notion of _Pliny_, we need only advert
+to the Account given us by the Reverend Mr. _Robinson_, in his
+natural History of _Westmoreland_, which is exceedingly curious,
+and well worthy of the Reader's perusal. This ingenious Gentleman is of
+Opinion that Winds have their original from the Sea, of which he gives
+the following very probable Account.
+
+    "IT, that is, the Wind, proceeds from vast swarms of nitrous
+    Particles arising from the Bottom of the Sea, which being put into
+    Motion, either by the central Fire, or by the Heat and Fermentation
+    which abound in this great Body of the Earth; and therefore the
+    first Commotion excited by the said Fermentation, we call a _Bottom
+    Wind_, which is presently discovered by Porpusses and other Sea
+    Fish, which delight in sporting and playing upon the Waves of the
+    Sea, and by their playing give the Mariners the first Notice of an
+    approaching Storm.
+
+    "WHEN these nitrous swarms are risen towards the Surface of the Sea
+    in a dark Night, they cause such a shining light upon the Waves, as
+    if the Sea was on fire. And being delivered from the brackish
+    Water, and received into the open Air, those fiery and shining
+    Meteors which fix upon the Masts and Sides of the Ships, and are
+    only nitrous particles condensed by the circumambient Cold, and
+    like that which the Chymists call Phosphorus, or artificial
+    Glow-worm, shine and cast a Light but have no Heat: This gives the
+    Mariners the second Notice that the Storm is rising, for upon the
+    first breaking out of the Wind, the Sea begins to be rough, and the
+    Waves swell and rise, when at the same time the Air is calm and
+    clear.
+
+    "THIS boiling Fermentation of the Sea causes the Vapours to rise,
+    which by the Intenseness of the circumambient Cold are condensed
+    into thick Clouds, and fall down in Storms of Wind and Rain, first
+    upon the Sea, from whence they rose, and then the attractive Power
+    of the Mountain-cold, by a secret Magnetism between Vapour and
+    Cold, attracts the waterish Vapours, intermixt with nitrous
+    Particles, to the high Tops of Mountains and Hills, where they hang
+    hovering in thick Fogs and waterish Mists, until the atmospherical
+    Heat rarefies the nitrous Part of the Fog (which is always
+    uppermost, and appears white and translucent) into brisk Gales of
+    Wind, and the Intenseness of atmospherical Cold having attracted
+    the Vapours into the colder Regions of the Air, where being
+    condensed into Clouds, the Wind breaks, dissipates, and drives them
+    before it, till they fall down in Rain, and water the Surface of
+    the Earth. And this seems to be the Reason why, in _Egypt_, and
+    those level Countries where they have no Mountains, they have
+    little Wind and less Rain."
+
+
+XVIII.
+
+CLOUDS. _In Summer or Harvest, when the Wind has been South two or
+        three Days, and it grows very hot, and you see Clouds rise with
+        great white Tops like Towers, as if one were upon the Top of
+        another, and joined together with black on the nether Side_,
+        there will be Thunder and Rain suddenly.
+
+WE may very easily account for this Observation, because in Fact the
+Signs here mentioned are no other than Nature's apparatus for a Storm
+of Thunder and Lightning, which will be perfectly understood by
+attending a little to the Causes of these Meteors. Lightning is a great
+flame, very bright, extending every way to a great distance, suddenly
+darting upwards, there ending, so that it is only momentaneous. The
+Matter which produces the Fire, is the Oil of Plants, attenuated by the
+heat of the Day, and raised on high. Then whatever has exhaled from the
+Earth that is sulphureous or Oily, which is dispersed up and down in
+the Atmosphere, and is not continuous, is set on Fire by Turns, and the
+Flame dilates itself as far as the Tract of that Exhalation reaches.
+Some other Substance pendant and floating in the Air meets with this
+also, with which it excites an effervescence, takes Fire and flashes
+along with it. Thunder is another bright Flame, rising on a sudden,
+moving with great Velocity through the Air, according to any
+Determination upwards from the Earth horizontally, obliquely, downwards
+in a right Line, or in several right Lines as it were in serpentine
+Tracts joined at various Angles, and commonly ending with a loud Noise
+or Rattling.
+
+IT is observed that it thunders most when the Wind blows from the
+South, and least when it blows from the East. The great Principle of
+Thunder is Sulphur, as is evident from the Smell it leaves behind it;
+but in order to occasion such an Explosion, there must be other
+Ingredients mixed therewith, especially Nitre, of which the Air is
+always full, besides other Things, of which it is impossible to give
+any Account. The Tracts of this Sort of Matter fly about in the Air,
+and are as it were Lines of Gunpowder, and as in the firing of that
+Powder, the Fire begins at one End, and pursuing its Aliment proceeds
+to the other Extremity, and so the whole Mass of Powder is fired; we
+may from thence account for the Phaenomenon of Thunder. For in like
+Manner those inflamed Tracts which are suspended in the Air, flash from
+a Flame that runs from one Extreme to the other, wherever the Vein of
+Nourishment leads it. Hence those Rays of Thunder, which seem to be
+brandished through the Air, and sometimes to be split in two or more
+Tracts, and sometimes to return back, at other Times to be projected in
+Lines that are joined by various Angles, and this only because the
+Flame meets with Tracts lying in various Situations that cohere one
+with another. Therefore Thunder seems now to run horizontally, now from
+above downwards, now upwards from the Earth, for if the Matter of
+Thunder pressing out of the Earth is enflamed near the Ground, the
+Flame darting upwards, the Thunder will seem to be projected out of the
+Earth. If the same Tract be set on Fire at its upper end, the Flame
+will move downwards, and the Thunder will seem to descend out of the
+Sky.
+
+HENCE we easily understand how it comes to thunder oftener in one Place
+than another, but most frequently in those where the Soil produces
+odoriferous Herbs, and abounds with Sulphur, and where the People are
+much exposed to the extreme Heat of the Sun. Thunder is less frequent
+in Places where there are few odoriferous Herbs, very little Sulphur,
+or where the Climate is watery and moist. For Instance, it thunders
+very much in _Italy_ and _Sicily_, and very rarely in _Egypt_, and the
+adjacent Countries. If it be demanded how it comes to thunder in the
+midst of the Ocean? The Answer is easy, because from the Bottom of the
+Ocean vast Tracts of sulphureous Matter are cast up through the Waters;
+as it happens to spring Waters in several Places, the Streams of which
+will take Fire from a lighted Candle. For sulphureous Exhalations
+bursting out together with the Waters, the fulmineous Matter in the Air
+is set on Fire when it meets with Exhalations or Vapours with which it
+can excite a vehement Effervescence. It is very clear from this
+Account, that the Clouds mentioned at the Top of the twenty-eighth Page
+are thunder Clouds, or Clouds big with the Materials of Thunder.
+
+
+XIX.
+
+_If two such Clouds arise, one on either Hand_, it is Time to make
+haste to shelter.
+
+AS this Observation is of the same Nature with the former, we shall
+continue our Remarks. The Reason why it seldom thunders in Winter is,
+because the exterior Parts of the Earth are so contracted by the cold
+Snow and Ice, that Sulphur cannot perspire in any great Quantities, but
+as soon as the Earth begins to be opened by the Sun in the Spring,
+something expires in the Month of _April_ which takes Fire. But by the
+greater Heat of the Sun penetrating deeper into the Earth, the Cortex
+is more opened in _May_, and now there is a more copious Expiration of
+the fulminating Matter, and whatever was collected and shut up in
+Winter, is now released and snatched up in the Air, and thence proceeds
+the most frequent Thunders in the Month of _May_, and chiefly when a
+very hot Day or two has gone before. A less Quantity of the same Matter
+remains in the upper Cortex of the Earth for the Month of _June_, but
+in the mean Time a Stock arises out of the deeper Bowels of the Earth,
+which is attenuated and prepared, so that by the very fervent Heat of
+_July_ it is elevated, as it were in heaps, and set on Fire. Hence
+Thunder is as frequent in _July_ as in _May_. And the Heat decreasing
+in the succeeding Months, the Exhalation of the fulminating Matter out
+of the Earth is more sparing, and thence, also, the thunder is less
+frequent, till in October, and the other winter months, the earth is
+bound up with us, and hardly expires any more. Hence we see why it very
+seldom thunders when the northerly winds blow; for these winds
+constringe the earth with their cold, and so hinder the fulminating
+matter from bursting forth; and when they are burst forth and floating
+in the air, they hinder their effervency. But on the contrary, when the
+warm and moist south winds blow, which open every thing, the earth
+likewise is opened, and abundance of fulminating matter is expired and
+ascends on high, which is there easily inflamed.
+
+AS the flame runs very swiftly, it seems to carry along with it
+particles, which it could not so easily set on fire, and when any of
+these particles are drawn together, and heated to a certain degree,
+they at last take fire, with a sudden and great explosion, and thereby
+produce what we call a thunder Clap. Now, though this be only a single
+sound, yet it is often heard in the form of a great murmuring noise of
+a long continuance; sometimes for thirty or forty seconds, because of
+its various repercussions by the clouds and terrestrial obstacles.
+Hence it is, that in vales, which are surrounded by mountains of a
+different Height, there is a terrible and long continued Bellowing of
+thunder Claps. Whereas for one Explosion it has been observed that
+there is but one Clap. Yet however if the Flame set Fire to two, three,
+or more fulmineous Tracts, each of them at last will end in a Clap, and
+thus several Sounds may be heard together, or quickly succeeding one
+another.
+
+
+XX.
+
+_If you see a Cloud rise against the Wind or side Wind, when that
+Cloud comes up to you, the Wind will blow the same Way that the Cloud
+came. And the same Rule holds of a clear Place, when all the Sky is
+equally thick, except one clear Edge._
+
+THIS seems to arise from hence, that Wind being nothing more than Air
+in motion, the Effects of it first discover themselves above, and
+actually drive such Clouds before them. This was long ago observed by
+_Pliny_. When Clouds, says he, float about in a serene Sky, from
+whatever Quarter they come, you may expect Winds. If they are collected
+together in one Place, they will be dispersed by the approach of the
+Sun. If these Clouds come from the North East, they denote Winds; if
+from the South great Rains. But let them come from what Quarter they
+will, if you see them driving thus about Sunset, they are sure signs of
+an approaching Tempest.
+
+IF the Clouds look dusky, or of a tarnish silver Colour, and move very
+slowly, it is a Sign of Hail. But to speak more plainly, those very
+Clouds are laden with Hail, which if there be a Mixture of Blue in the
+Clouds will be small, but if very yellow, large. Small scattering
+Clouds that fly very high, especially, from the South West, denote
+Whirlwinds. The shooting of fallen Stars through them, is a Sign of
+Thunder. We meet with many Observations of this sort in our old Writers
+on Husbandry, and we have abundance of Proverbs relating to this
+Subject which are worth observing, and the rather, because most of them
+are not peculiar to our Language only, but common to us with many of
+our Neighbours. It is the Remark of Lord _Bacon_, and a very judicious
+Remark too, that Proverbs are the Philosophy of the common People, that
+is to say, they are trite Remarks founded in Truth, and fitted for
+Memory. I must confess that there are some of them that seem either
+false, or of no great Consequence, but then I am apt to suspect, that
+by various Accidents we have lost their true Meaning, or else, that in
+length of Time, they have been altered and corrupted, till they have
+little or no meaning at all.
+
+I cannot help taking Notice in Regard to the Rule before us, that
+Captain _Dampier_ tells us in the _East-Indies_, they have always
+Notice of a Tuffoon by the Skies being first clear and calm, and then a
+small white Cloud hanging precisely in the Point from whence the Storm
+comes, where he observes that it remains sometimes twelve Hours or
+more, and adds, that as soon as it begins to move, the Wind presently
+follows it. When Sir _John Bury_, who died an _English_ Admiral, had
+the Command of a small Frigate in the _West-Indies_, he escaped a
+Hurricane in the _Leward_ Islands by taking the Advice of a poor Negro,
+who shewed him a small white Cloud at a Distance, and assured him that
+when it came to the _Zenith_, the Hurricane would infallibly begin, as
+indeed it did.
+
+
+XXI.
+
+_Sudden Rains never_ last long: _But when the Air grows thick by
+Degrees, and the Sun, Moon, and Stars shine dimmer and dimmer, then
+it is like_ to rain six Hours usually.
+
+RAIN is, properly speaking, a Multitude of small watery Drops, falling
+from the upper Air at different Seasons. When the upper Regions become
+cold of a sudden, the watery Clouds are condensed and fall in hasty
+Showers. It is observed that mountainous Countries have most Rain, and
+the Reason seems to be the Winds driving the Clouds against the Rocks
+and Hills, and thereby compressing them in such a Manner, that they are
+immediately dissolved, and fall as it were at once. This is the Reason
+that in _Lancashire_ there falls twice as much Rain as in _Essex_, and
+it is probably from the same Cause, that in the Ocean, over-against the
+mountainous Coast of _Guinea_, showers sometimes fall as it were by
+Pailfuls.
+
+THIS Observation of our Shepherd is very just and reasonable, and I
+dare say will hardly ever fail such as observe it. The Dimness of the
+Stars and other heavenly Bodies, is one of the surest Signs of very
+rainy Weather. It is likewise to be observed that when the Stars look
+bigger than usual, and are pale and dull and without Rays, this
+undoubtedly indicates that the Clouds are condensing into Rain, which
+will very soon fall; and it has been observed that when the Air grows
+thick by Degrees, and the Light of the Sun lessens so as not to be
+discerned at all, and again when the Moon or Stars have the same
+Appearances, a continued Rain for at least six Hours is sure to follow.
+
+TO be the better informed in such Cases, it is best to have Recourse to
+a variety of Signs, for it is not only the Clouds and Sky, or the Sun,
+Moon, and Stars, that gives us previous Notice of rainy Weather, but
+almost every Thing in the Creation, and Vegetables particularly. As for
+Instance, the Pimpernel, which is a very common flower, shuts itself up
+extremely close against rainy Weather. In like manner the Trefoil
+swells in the Stalk against Rain, so that it stands up very stiff, but
+the Leaves droop and hang down. Even the most solid Bodies are affected
+by this Change of the Atmosphere, for Stones seem to sweat, and Wood
+swells, the Air driving the moist Particles with which it is filled
+into the Pores of dry Wood especially, makes it swell prodigiously, and
+this is the Reason the Doors and Windows are hard to shut in rainy
+Weather.
+
+THIS is so true, that there has been a Method found of dividing
+Mill-stones by the mere Force of the Air, which is done in this Manner.
+They divide a Block of this kind of Stone as big as a large rolling
+Stone, into as many Parts as they design to make Millstones, and in the
+Circles where this Block is to be divided, they pierce several Holes,
+which they fill with allow Wood dried in an Oven, and expose the Stone
+to the Air, in moist Weather; when the Wood swells to such a Degree as
+to split the Stone as effectually, as if it was by iron Wedges driven
+by Sledge-Hammers. This curious and extraordinary Method of dividing
+Mill-stones is related by the famous Mr. _Ozanam_ of his own Knowledge.
+
+
+XXII.
+
+_If it begin to Rain from the South, with a high Wind for two or
+three Hours, and the Wind falls, but the Rain continues_, it is like
+to rain twelve Hours or more, and does usually rain till a strong North
+Wind clears the Air. _These long Rains seldom hold above twelve
+Hours, or happen above_ once a Year.
+
+THIS depends entirely upon Observation, and Experience shews us that
+whenever the Wind falls, Rain follows. It has been likewise observed,
+that when the Wind changes often there fall heavy Rains. All these
+Alterations in the Atmosphere, are less observed by Men than by
+Animals, for two Reasons. The first is, that we live much within Doors,
+by which they are less obvious to us, and it is for this Reason that
+the Husbandman, Seamen, Fishermen, but above all Shepherds, who are
+more in the open Air than other Men, are better acquainted with, and
+more able to distinguish and judge of the Signs of the Alteration of
+the Weather, than those who live altogether within Doors, or go out but
+seldom. Another Reason is our having so many Things to mind, which
+takes off our Thoughts, and renders us less attentive to the Signals
+which would give up Notice of such Alterations. It is for this Reason
+that we ought to serve ourselves of that Sort of Instinct which Nature
+has given to other Animals, and which as it is a Gift of Nature, is in
+a Manner infallible.
+
+THUS if small Birds prune themselves and duck and make a shew of
+washing. If Crows make a great Noise in the Evening, if Geese gaggle
+more than usual, these are all Signs of Rain, because these Animals
+love wet Weather, and rejoice at the approach of it. On the other Hand,
+if Oxen lie on their Right Sides, look towards the South, and lick
+their Hoofs, if Cows look up in the Air, and snuff it, if Asses bray
+violently, and if Cocks crow at unusual Hours, but especially when a
+Hen and Chickens crowd into the House, these are sure Signs of Rain.
+
+INSECTS also are very sensible of such Changes of Weather. Frogs croak
+more than ordinary, Worms creep out of the Ground, Moles throw up more
+Earth than usual, because such Weather is more agreeable to them;
+Hornets, Wasps, and Gnats, sting more frequently against wet Weather
+than in fair. Spiders are restless and uneasy, and frequently drop from
+the Wall, the humid Air getting into their Webs and making them heavy.
+But the surest and most certain Sign is taken from Bees, which are more
+incommoded by Rain than almost any other Creatures, and therefore, as
+soon as the Air begins to grow heavy, and the Vapours to condense, they
+will not fly from their Hives, but either remain in them all Day, or
+else fly but to a small Distance.
+
+
+XXIII.
+
+_If it begins to rain an Hour or two before Sun-rising, it is like to
+be fair_ before Noon, and so continue that Day, _but if the Rain
+begin an Hour or two after Sun-rising, it is like_ to Rain all that
+Day, _except the Rainbow be seen before it rains_.
+
+THIS is a short, clear, and easy Observation, and therefore I shall not
+dwell long upon it, but rather entertain the Reader with a few
+Observations on the Rainbow. Whenever it appears, things are thus
+circumstanced. The Spectator has the Sun behind him, and Clouds with
+the Bow in them before him. Sometimes there are two and even three Bows
+seen, but this is very rare. The Colours in the Bow are ranged in this
+Order, _viz._ Violet, Purple, Blue, Green, Yellow, Orange, Red. After a
+long Drought the Bow is a certain Sign of Rain, if after much Wet fair
+Weather. If the Green be large and bright it is a Sign of Rain, but if
+the Red be the strongest Colour, then it denotes Wind and Rain
+together. If the Bow breaks up all at once there will follow serene and
+settled Weather. If the Bow be seen in the Morning small Rain will
+follow. If at Noon, settled and heavy Rains; if at Night, fair Weather.
+The Appearance of two or three Rainbows shews fair Weather for the
+present, but settled and heavy Rains in two or three Days' Time.
+
+LUNAR Rainbows are sometimes, but very seldom seen, they are extremely
+beautiful, but much less than those that appear in the Day time, and a
+yellow, or rather a straw Colour prevails most. As they happen so
+seldom, they cannot well be reckoned amongst the Signs of Weather. But
+now, after speaking of so many different Methods of judging when rainy
+Weather will be of a short or long Continuance: Give me leave to
+describe two or three Instruments easily made, which will shew the
+Alterations of the Weather certainly, constantly, and early enough for
+most Uses.
+
+THERE were some Years ago a Sort of Toys sold, with a Man and a Woman
+so fixed before the Door of a House, that at the Approach of wet
+Weather the Woman entered it, and when the Weather grew fair the Man.
+This was done by the Help of a Bit of Catgut, which shrinks in wet
+Weather, and stretches again when it is fair. This appears better by a
+Line and Plummet, especially if the Line be made of good Whipcord, that
+is well dried, for then if it be hung against a Wainscot, and a Line
+drawn under it exactly where the Plummet reaches, in very moderate
+Weather it will be found to rise above it before Rain, and to sink
+below when the Weather is like to become fair; but the best Instrument
+of all is a good Pair of Scales, in one of which let there be a brass
+Weight of a Pound, and in the other a Pound of Salt, or of Salt-Petre
+well dried, a Stand being placed under the Scale, so as to hinder its
+falling too low. When it is inclined to rain the Salt will swell, and
+sink the Scale, when the Weather is growing fair, the brass Weight will
+regain its Ascendancy.
+
+
+XXIV.
+
+SPRING and SUMMER. _If the last eighteen Days of_ February _and
+                   ten Days of_ March _be for the most part_
+                   rainy, _then the_ Spring and Summer _Quarters
+                   are like to be so too: and I never knew_ a great
+                   Drought _but it entered_ in that Season.
+
+IT is easy to discover by Observation whether this Rule be well or ill
+founded, that is to say, whether our Shepherd's Observation will serve
+for other Places or not, and where it will serve and where not. But it
+may not be amiss to remark that it is highly probable, or rather
+absolutely certain, that the Weather in one Season of the Year
+determines the Weather in another. For instance, if there be a rainy
+Winter then the Autumn will be dry, if a dry Spring, then a rainy
+Winter. Our Forefathers had abundance of odd Sayings upon this Subject,
+and some Proverbs for every Month in the Year, but I doubt they were
+indifferently founded, however there can be no Harm in observing them,
+in order to discover whether there be any thing in them or not.
+
+    _Janiveer_ freeze the Pot by the Fire
+
+    If the Grass grow in _Janiveer_
+    It grows the worse for't all the Year.
+    The _Welchman_ had rather see his Dam on the Bier
+    Than to see a fair _Februeer_.
+    _March_ Wind and _May_ Sun
+    Make Clothes white and Maids Dun.
+    When _April_ blows his Horn
+    It's good both for Hay and Corn.
+    An _April_ Flood
+    Carries away the Frog and her Brood.
+    A cold _May_ and a windy
+    Makes a full Barn and a Findy.
+    A _May_ Flood never did good.
+    A Swarm of Bees in _May_
+    Is worth a Load of Hay.
+    But a Swarm in _July_
+    Is not worth a Fly, _&c._
+
+
+XXV.
+
+WINTER. _If the latter End of_ October _and Beginning of_ November
+        _be for the most Part warm and rainy, then_ January _and_
+        February are like to be frosty and cold, _except after a
+        very dry Summer_.
+
+IT is very evident, supposing this Observation to be true, as I am
+pretty confident it is, that the Reason of it is to be sought in that
+Balance of the Weather which Providence has established. There is not
+only a Time to sow, and a Time to reap, but there is a Time also for
+dry and a Time for wet Weather, and if these do not happen at proper
+Seasons, they will certainly happen at other Seasons; for not only the
+Wisdom of Philosophers hath discerned, but their Experiments and
+Observations have put it out of doubt, that there is a certain Rule or
+Proportion observed between wet Weather and dry in every Country, so
+that it is nearly the same in every annual Revolution, neither is wet
+and dry Weather only, but hot and cold, open and frost, that are thus
+regulated, from whence we see, that when the Scripture represents to us
+God's settling Things by Weight and Measure, it speaks not only
+elegantly, but exactly. For we do not mean by Providence any
+extraordinary or supernatural Interposition of almighty Power, but the
+constant and settled Order established by the Will of that almighty
+Being which we commonly call Nature.
+
+THERE is nothing easier than for vulgar Understandings to mistake the
+Meaning of Words, and by a Superstition natural to weak Minds convert,
+what they imperfectly understand into Notions that perplex and confound
+them. Hence it proceeds that in common Conversation one hears People
+speak of Nature as of a Being, or a Kind of subordinate Deity, whereas
+in Reality the true Meaning of Nature is, that Order or Law which God
+has established in the Universe, and the Knowledge of Nature is no more
+than the Light we acquire by Study into the Connexion of those Laws. In
+this Sense Experience is a Kind of Revelation, that is to say, it is a
+Sort of Knowledge that comes to us from without, and is infallible in
+itself, we may indeed go on wrong and deceive ourselves in the
+Arguments we raise from it, but the Knowledge grounded upon Experiments
+never varies.
+
+THIS is sufficient to shew us how much wiser a Thing it is to trust
+this Sort of experimental Knowledge, then to put any Faith in that Kind
+of idle Science which amused our Forefathers, and enabled Almanac
+Makers to delude and mislead them. It is true we use the Luminaries as
+well as they, but then we use them in a rational Manner, and do not
+pretend to impose this or that Sign upon other People, but barely set
+down our own Observations, which are to be examined and verified by the
+Experience of those to whom they are submitted. The Astrologer on the
+other Hand insists on what are not in Nature; the twelve Houses are a
+mere Invention, and so are all the Properties ascribed to the celestial
+Signs, and to the Planets; mere Dreams and Fictions devised by the
+Cunning to cheat and impose upon the Ignorant, and which had been long
+ago exploded if People had brought them to the only Test of which they
+are capable, I mean that of Experience; with which they never did,
+never will, and indeed never can agree: whereas the Rules given by our
+Shepherd, are such as we have shewn, suit perfectly well with Remarks
+of other studious Persons in all Ages.
+
+
+XXVI.
+
+_If_ October _and_ November _be Snow and Frost, then_ January _and_
+February _are like to be_ open _and mild_.
+
+AS this Observation stands on the same Foundation with the last, we
+need not dwell upon it particularly, and therefore I shall proceed with
+my former Reflections. The only Way to be acquainted with Nature, is to
+study Nature. All Systems of human Invention that are not built upon
+Experiments, are sooner or later found to be false, because, to say the
+Truth, they are nothing better than ingenious Contrivances invented by
+the Wit of Man, to conceal his Ignorance. In order to account for what
+we behold, we must first of all take Pains to be well acquainted with
+the Fact, and not suffer ourselves to be led away by Opinion. In order
+to explain what I mean, I shall give an Instance. All the World knows
+that not only the vulgar, but the learned, were for many Ages in a
+constant Error about Corruption, and really believed that the Heat of
+the Sun, and even animal Heat produced Worms, Maggots, and other living
+Creatures. Many grave Writers carried the Thing farther, and told us of
+Rats, Mice, and other Creatures produced out of the Slime of the River
+_Nile_, by the Heat of the Sun in _Egypt_, which might very well pass
+for Truth among those who fancied they saw every Day something of the
+like Nature: I mean in the Corruption of Flesh and other Things, in
+which we behold Thousands of living Creatures.
+
+AN _Italian_ Philosopher destroyed this whole Doctrine at once, by a
+simple and easy Experiment. He exposed a Piece of raw Flesh in a glass
+Vessel well covered with Gauze to the Air and Sun, and found that it
+putrefied without producing any living Creatures. This shews how
+careful we ought to be with Respect to Facts; for till this Experiment
+was made, no Body doubted that Vermin were bred by, as well as in
+putrefied Bodies; whereas we are now satisfied that the Heat of the Sun
+can no more produce a Worm or a Maggot, than a Horse or an Elephant. By
+the same Examination we might open the Way to Knowledge, by driving out
+a Multitude of other Errors. But the Humour of taking Things for
+granted without inquiring into them, and then endeavouring to account
+for them by dint of Reasoning, amuses us with a false shew of Wisdom,
+and encourages us to persist obstinately in the Maintenance of weak and
+foolish Notions.
+
+TO apply this to the Subject of which we are treating. It is certainly
+a curious and a useful Thing to understand the Nature of the Weather,
+and to know how the Changes that happen in it come to pass. The
+Business is to find out the true Way of coming at this kind of
+Knowledge, and upon the Principles that I have advanced, it is very
+evident that the, only certain Way of coming at it is by Observation.
+This is a slow but a sure Method of arriving at Truth, and the Specimen
+here given us, of _one_ Man's Observations, is enough to convince us
+that a little Diligence and Application would soon go a great Way
+towards forming a Body of such Observations as might enable us to
+understand the Weather thoroughly, and to predict its Changes and
+Alterations with a great Degree of Certainty. If we will not take this
+Pains, we must content ourselves with what hath been already
+discovered, or if our Conditions of Life exclude us from the
+Opportunities of making such Observations, it is certainly a right
+Thing to help ourselves by inquiring into, and reasoning upon such
+Observations as other People have made and to facilitate this as far as
+possible, I have taken the Pains to write this Commentary upon our
+Shepherd's Rules; which I hope will render them more useful, or at
+least secure them that Regard which they deserve.
+
+THERE remains therefore nothing more for me to do in order to recommend
+these Observations, but to say somewhat with Respect to the Utility of
+the Alterations of the Weather in general, and in particular; in order
+to satisfy the Reader that there is nothing of Chance or Accident in
+such Alterations, but that they are governed in every Respect by the
+same unerring Wisdom, that at first framed and constantly preserves the
+Universe. All Weathers are at sometimes reasonable, which shews that
+they are good in themselves, and only accidentally evil. We ought not
+to measure Things of a general Nature, by particular Rules. If by the
+Direction of Providence the Succession of Seasons be such, as that they
+turn to the good of Mankind in the whole; it is no Objection to, or
+Diminution of Providence that this Succession of Seasons should at
+different Times be injurious to certain Countries, because this may
+likewise be accounted for.
+
+AS to Particulars we will begin with the Air, which is composed of
+Exhalations of all earthly Bodies, as well solid as fluid, as also of
+Fire, whether of the Sun or the Stars, or of earthly Bodies burnt, or
+of Fire breaking out from the Entrails of the Earth, and ascending, and
+though it be thus compounded, and hath swimming in it Multitudes of
+other Things, yet we find that it is perfectly wholesome, is the Spring
+of Motion, and of Life to Men, and all other Animals; so that though we
+cannot account for, and perhaps have not a Power of comprehending how
+such a mixed Body can be rendered salutary: yet since it is certain,
+that so it is, we have no Right to complain either of the evil
+Consequences that sometimes attend the Exhalations with which it is
+filled, or the Accidents that flow from the frequent Alterations that
+happen therein, because these have a visible Tendency to the general
+good, and are apparently necessary to the Preservation of the Universe,
+so that before we can have any Title to find fault, we must first shew
+that we are capable of understanding them in their full Extent, and as
+_this_ is impossible, it follows _that_ must be unreasonable.
+
+BUT this appears still the more clearly, when it is considered, that
+all such Alterations may be shewn even from the Light of Reason to be
+generally useful, notwithstanding they sometimes appear troublesome and
+noxious. For Instance, such quick Streams of Air in Motion as we call
+Winds, though they sometimes swell into Storms and Tempests, yet are
+they of great Benefit to Mankind, by purging the Air, and many other
+Conveniences. It is a Proverb at _Vienna, that if_ Austria_ be not
+windy it is sickly_; and this Saying is no less true in other
+Countries, for by consulting the History of the last great Plague that
+raged here in 1666, it will be found that there was in a Manner a dead
+Calm during the Time of the Sickness, and it is known in _Egypt_, where
+they have Plagues annually, that the Change of the Wind delivers them
+from that Evil. Add to this the great Use of Winds in Navigation, and
+reflect on the Benefits that accrue there from, and we shall see no
+Cause whatever to doubt that this Motion of the Air is a very wise
+Contrivance.
+
+THE Condensation of Vapours, which is the Cause of Rain, is another
+great Benefit to the World, in as much as this is very probably
+supposed to be the Source of Fountains, Rivers, Lakes, and other
+Magazines of fresh Water, without which the Earth would be uninhabitable,
+and to which in a very great Measure its Fertility is owing. We ought
+likewise to remember that though this be in itself so clear, and at the
+same Time so certain, yet there are Countries in the World where it
+very seldom rains, as in _Egypt_, and others where it hardly ever
+rains, as in _Peru_; so that we see there is no raising general
+Doctrines upon this Subject, which ought to make us the more tender in
+disputing the Will of Providence, or repining when it happens to cross
+our own.
+
+THE Uses of Snow are as great though less apparent, of which I shall
+mention but three. The first is its preserving Herbs and Grass in the
+Winter against the Severity of Frost; secondly, its supplying Water to
+Brooks and Rivers; and lastly, its furnishing the Earth with vast
+Quantities of Nitre, and thereby conducing greatly to its Fertility,
+and perhaps the same thing may be said of Frost, hard Winters being
+often succeeded by luxuriant Summers, and thus we find that what in
+Appearance causes Scarcity, may in Reality produce Plenty.
+
+LASTLY, even Thunder, however terrible in its Appearance, and sometimes
+fatal in its Effects, is nevertheless very useful and beneficial upon
+the whole, for this likewise purifies the Air from sulphureous and oily
+Exhalations, and the Rains that fall with it fertilize the Earth
+exceedingly. It also moderates the Heat as Experience teaches us, for
+as it is always gloomy and sultry before Thunder, so it is afterwards
+generally cool and pleasant. These Remarks, though very short, may give
+the Reader an Opportunity of extending his Observations throughout all
+the Variations of Weather, and enable him to discern how useful and
+instructive a thing the Study of its Alterations may be, and how
+probable it is, that by proper Care and Attention, we may arrive at a
+much more useful, as well as a much more certain Knowledge in regard to
+the Weather, than hitherto has been attained.
+
+
+FINIS.
+
+
+
+
+
+End of the Project Gutenberg EBook of The Shepherd of Banbury's Rules to
+Judge of the Changes of the Weather, Grounded on Forty Years' Experience, by John Claridge
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