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+The Project Gutenberg eBook, The Audacious War, by Clarence W. Barron
+
+
+This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with
+almost no restrictions whatsoever.  You may copy it, give it away or
+re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included
+with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org
+
+
+
+
+
+Title: The Audacious War
+
+
+Author: Clarence W. Barron
+
+
+
+Release Date: April 5, 2006  [eBook #18125]
+
+Language: English
+
+Character set encoding: ISO-8859-1
+
+
+***START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE AUDACIOUS WAR***
+
+
+E-text prepared by Al Haines
+
+
+
+THE AUDACIOUS WAR
+
+by
+
+CLARENCE W. BARRON
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+Boston and New York
+Houghton Mifflin Company
+The Riverside Press Cambridge
+1915
+Copyright, 1914 and 1915, by the Boston News Bureau Company
+Copyright, 1915, by Clarence W. Barron
+All Rights Reserved
+Published February 1915
+
+THIRD IMPRESSION
+
+
+
+
+  IF!
+
+  Suppose 't were done!
+  The lanyard pulled on every shotted gun;
+  Into the wheeling death-clutch sent
+  Each millioned armament,
+  To grapple there
+  On land, on sea and under, and in air!
+  Suppose at last 't were come--
+  Now, while each bourse and shop and mill is dumb
+  And arsenals and dockyards hum,--
+  Now all complete, supreme,
+  That vast, Satanic dream!--
+
+  Each field were trampled, soaked,
+  Each stream dyed, choked,
+  Each leaguered city and blockaded port
+  Made famine's sport;
+  The empty wave
+  Made reeling dreadnought's grave;
+  Cathedral, castle, gallery, smoking fell
+  'Neath bomb and shell;
+  In deathlike trance
+  Lay industry, finance;
+  Two thousand years'
+  Bequest, achievement, saving, disappears
+  In blood and tears,
+  In widowed woe
+  That slum and palace equal know,
+  In civilization's suicide,--
+  What served thereby, what satisfied?
+  For justice, freedom, right, what wrought?
+  Naught!--
+
+  Save, after the great cataclysm, perhap
+  On the world's shaken map
+  New lines, more near or far,
+  Binding to king or czar
+  In festering hate
+  Some newly vassaled state;
+  And passion, lust and pride made satiate;
+  And just a trace
+  Of lingering smile on Satan's face!
+      --_Boston News Bureau Poet_.
+
+
+This poem has been called the great poem of the war.  It was written
+just preceding the war, and published August 1 by the "Boston News
+Bureau."  Of it, and its author, Bartholomew P. Griffin, the following
+was written by Rev. Francis G. Peabody: "The English poets, Bridges,
+Kipling, Austin, and Noyes, have all tried to meet the need and all
+have lamentably failed.  I am proud not only that an American, but that
+a Harvard man, should have risen to the occasion."
+
+
+
+
+PREFACE
+
+The Scotch have this proverb: "War brings poverty.  Poverty brings
+peace.  Peace brings prosperity.  Prosperity brings pride.  And pride
+brings war again."  Shall the world settle down to the faith that there
+is no redemption from an everlasting round of pride, war, poverty,
+peace, prosperity, pride, and war again?
+
+But it was not primarily to settle, or even study this problem that I
+crossed the ocean and the English Channel in winter.  As a journalist
+publishing the _Wall Street Journal_, the _Boston News Bureau_, and the
+_Philadelphia News Bureau_, and directing news-gathering for the
+banking and financial communities, I deemed it my duty to ascertain at
+close hand the financial factors in this war, and the financial results
+therefrom.
+
+I found myself on the other side, not only in the domain of the finance
+encircling this war, but unexpectedly in close touch with diplomatic
+and government circles.  The whole of the war, its commercial causes,
+its financial and military forces, its tremendous human sacrifices, the
+conflicting principles of government, and the world-wide issues
+involved, all lay out in clear facts and figures after I had gathered
+by day and night from what appeared at first to be a tangled web.
+
+I learned who made this war, and why at this time and for what
+purposes, present and prospective; and from facts that could not be set
+down categorically in papers of state.  No papers, "white," "gray," or
+"yellow," could present a picture of the war in its inception and the
+reasons therefor.
+
+There is no powerful organization over nations to keep the peace of
+Europe or of the world, as nations are in organization over states, and
+states over cities, to insure peace and justice, without strife or
+human sacrifice.
+
+The immediate causes of this war, and I believe they have not before
+been presented on this side of the ocean, are connected with commercial
+treaties, protective tariffs, and financial progress.
+
+It may be wondered that in our country, which is the home of the
+protective tariff system and boasts its great prosperity therefrom,
+there has been as yet no presentation of the business causes beneath
+this war.  Our great journalists are trained to find interesting,
+picturesque, and saleable news features from big events.  Details of
+war's atrocities and destructions are to most people of the greatest
+human interest, and rightly so.  As a country we have no international
+policy, and European politics and policies have never interested us.
+
+Germany is buttressed by tariffs and commercial treaties on every side.
+Years ago I was told in Europe that the commercial treaties wrested
+from France in 1871 were of more value to Germany than the billion
+dollars of indemnity she took as her price to quit Paris.  But I did
+not realize until I was abroad this winter how European countries had
+warred by tariffs, and that Germany and Russia were preparing for a
+great clash at arms over the renewal of commercial and tariff treaties
+which expire within two years, and which had been forced by Germany
+upon Russia during the Japanese War.
+
+German "Kultur" means German progress, commercially and financially.
+German progress is by tariffs and commercial treaties.  Her armies, her
+arms, and her armaments, are to support this "Kultur" and this progress.
+
+I believe I have told the story as it has never been told before.  But
+the facts cannot be drawn forth and properly set in review without some
+presentation of the spirit of the peoples of the European nations.
+
+If all the nations of Europe were of one language, the spirit, the soul
+of each in its distinctive characteristics might stand out even more
+prominently than to-day.
+
+Then we could see even more clearly the spirit of brotherhood and
+nationality that stands out resplendent as the soul of France.  We
+should see the spirit of empire and of trade, interknit with
+administrative justice, as the soul of Great Britain.  We should see
+Germany an uncouth giant in the center of Europe, viewing all about him
+with suspicion, and demanding to know why, as the youngest, sturdiest,
+best organized, and hardest working European nation, he is not entitled
+to overseas or world empire.
+
+But few persons on this side have comprehended the relation of this
+great war to the greatest commercial prizes in the world; the shores of
+the Mediterranean, Asia Minor, with its Bagdad Railroad headed for the
+Persian Gulf, Mesopotamia with its great oil-fields, undeveloped and a
+source of power for the recreation of Palestine and all the lands
+between the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean, and Asia.
+
+The greatest study for Americans to-day is the spirit of nations as
+shown in this war, and great lessons for the United States may be found
+in the finance, business, patriotism, and justice that stand forth in
+the British Empire as never before.  She is rolling up a tremendous
+war-power within her empire and throughout Europe, encircling the
+German war-power.  But she is likewise looking to her own people and
+her own workers, filling her own factories and every laboring hand to
+the full that she may keep her business and profits at home, and with
+her business and profits and accumulated capital and income prosecute
+the greatest war of history.
+
+She is not unmindful in any respect of what the war may send her way.
+In the breaking-away and the breaking-up of Turkey, she sees a clear
+field for Egypt, the realization of the dream of Cecil Rhodes of the
+development of the whole of Africa by a Cape to Cairo Railroad, and she
+sees her own empire and peoples belting the world in power, usefulness,
+and justice, and with a sweep and scope for enterprise and development
+beyond all the previous dreams of this generation.
+
+The United States, with hundreds of millions of banking reserves
+released and giving base for a business expansion double any we have
+had before, seems suddenly paralyzed in its business activities and,
+comprehending only that the loaf of bread is a cent higher and a pound
+of cotton a few cents lower, it is wondering on which side of its bread
+the butter is to fall.
+
+Meanwhile, it talks politics, asks if prosperity here is to come during
+or after the war; and having little comprehension of the meaning of the
+national throbs that on the other side of the globe are pulsating the
+world into a new era of light, liberty, and expansion by individual
+labor, it refuses to take up its daily home-task and go forward.
+
+In the hope that these pages may be useful to my fellow countrymen in
+giving them the facts of this war, its commercial causes, its financial
+progress, its sacrifice in humanity,--sacrifice that could not be
+demanded but for a greater future,--these papers are taken, as
+completed in my financial publications in this month of February, and
+placed before the reading community in book form, as requested in
+hundreds of personal letters.
+
+They were never conceived or written with any idea of their permanent
+preservation.  They were prepared for the banking community, which
+demands news-facts and figures discriminatingly presented.  The banker
+wants the truth; he will make his own argument and reach his own
+conclusions.
+
+The reader will readily see that these chapters are day-to-day issues
+aiming to present that news from the standpoint of finance.  But under
+all sound finance must be primarily the truth of humanity.  They do not
+claim to be from beginning to end a harmonious book-presentation of the
+war, but it is believed that they contain the essential fundamental
+war-facts; and the aim was to present them in most condensed expression.
+
+They cover the first six months of this most Audacious War.  Whether it
+is to continue for another six months or another sixteen months is not
+so material as the character of the peace and what is to follow.
+
+No greater problem can be placed before the world than that of how the
+peace of nations may be maintained.  Having cleared my own mind upon
+this subject, I submit it in the final chapter, which naturally follows
+after that treating of the lessons for the United States from this war.
+
+Only in an international organization, with power to make decrees of
+peace and enforce them, and with insurance of powers above those of all
+dissenters, can we find the peace of nations as we have found the peace
+of cities.  This Audacious War has forced such an alliance as can yield
+this power.  Its transfer to the support of an International tribunal
+can make and keep the peace of Europe and eventually of the world.
+
+Then may the earth cease to be, in history, that steady round of
+Prosperity, Pride, and War.
+
+C. W. Barron.
+
+February 15, 1915.
+
+
+
+
+    CONTENTS
+
+
+    I.  THE WORLD'S GREATEST CONTEST
+   II.  TARIFFS AND COMMERCE THE WAR CAUSES
+  III.  THE POLITICAL CAUSES OF THE WAR
+   IV.  PEACE PROPOSALS
+    V.  FRANCE AND THE FRENCH
+   VI.  THE POSITION OF FRANCE
+  VII.  FRENCH FINANCE
+ VIII.  THE BELGIAN SACRIFICE
+   IX.  RUSSIA AND THE RUSSIANS
+    X.  THE ENGLISH POSITION
+   XI.  ENGLISH WAR FORCES
+  XII.  ENGLISH WAR FINANCE
+ XIII.  GERMAN RESOURCES
+  XIV.  IS IT THE PEOPLE'S WAR?
+   XV.  THE GERMAN POSITION
+  XVI.  THE LESSONS FOR AMERICA
+ XVII.  WHAT PEACE SHOULD MEAN
+
+
+
+
+THE AUDACIOUS WAR
+
+
+CHAPTER I
+
+THE WORLD'S GREATEST CONTEST
+
+The Censorship--The Warship "Audacious"--Mine or Torpedo?--The Battle
+Line--War by Gasolene Motors--The Boys from Canada--The Audacity of it.
+
+The war of 1914 is not only the greatest war in history but the
+greatest in the political and economic sciences.  Indeed, it is the
+greatest war of all the sciences, for it involves all the known
+sciences of earth, ocean, and the skies.
+
+To get the military, the political, and especially the financial flavor
+of this war, to study its probable duration and its financial
+consequences, was the object of a trip to England and France from which
+the writer has recently returned.
+
+One can hear "war news" from the time he leaves the American coast and
+begins to pick up the line of the British warships--England's far-flung
+battle line--until he returns to the dock, but thorough investigation
+would convince a trained news man that most of this war gossip is
+erroneous.
+
+This war is so vast and wide, from causes so powerful and deep, and
+will be so far-reaching in its effects that no ill-considered or
+partial statements concerning it should be made by any responsible
+writer.
+
+The difficulty of obtaining the exact facts by any ordinary methods is
+very great.  There is a strict supervision of all news, and to insure
+that by news sources no "aid or comfort" is given to the enemy, a vast
+amount of pertinent, legitimate, and harmless news and data is
+necessarily suppressed.  The censors are military men and not news men,
+and act from the standpoint that a million facts had better be
+suppressed than that a single report should be helpful to the enemy.
+Only in Russia are reports of news men from the firing line allowed.
+
+One hears abroad continually of the battle of the Marne, of the battle
+of the Aisne, of the contest at Ypres, and the fight on the Yser, but
+no outside man has yet been permitted to describe any of these in
+detail, or to give the strategy, beginning, end, or boundaries of them,
+or even the distinct casualties therefrom.  Indeed, it is doubtful if
+the official histories, when they are written, can do this, for these
+are the emphasized portions of one great and continuous battle that
+went on for more than one hundred days.
+
+To illustrate the strength of the hand on the English war news, it may
+be noted that there is no mention permitted in the English press of
+such a ship as the "Audacious."  Yet American papers with photographs
+of the "Audacious" as she sinks in the ocean are sold in London and on
+the Continent.  Outside of London not ten per cent of the people know
+anything concerning this boat or her finish.
+
+This word "finish" would be disputed in any newspaper or well-informed
+financial office in London where it is daily declared that although the
+"Audacious" met with an accident, her guns have been raised and will go
+aboard another ship of the same size, purchased, or just being
+finished, and named the "Audacious."  Indeed, I was informed on "good
+authority" that the "Audacious" was afloat, had been towed into
+Birkenhead and that the repairs to her bottom were nearly finished.
+You can hear similar stories wherever the "accident" is discussed.  I
+have heard it so many times that I ought to believe it.  Yet if one
+hundred people separately and individually make assurances concerning
+something of which they have no personal knowledge, it does not go down
+with a true news man.  I was able to run across a man who saw the
+affair of the "Audacious."  He laughed at the stories of shallow water
+and raised guns.  His position was such, both then and thereafter, that
+I was sure that he knew and told me the truth.
+
+Later I learned that the "Audacious" was too far off the Irish coast to
+permit of talk of shallow water, and that neither guns nor 30,000-ton
+warships are raised from fifty-fathom depths.
+
+Yet I am willing to narrate what has not been permitted publication in
+England, and I think not elsewhere: that the mines about Lough Swilly,
+along the Scotch and Irish coasts, and in the Irish Sea, were laid with
+the assistance of English fishing-boats flying the English flag.  These
+boats had been captured by the Germans and impressed into this work.
+
+There are also stories of Irish boats and Norwegian trawlers in this
+work, but I secured no confirmation of such reports.
+
+It is still unsettled in British Admiralty circles as to whether the
+"Audacious" came in contact with a mine or torpedo from a German
+submarine.  Two of her crew report that they saw the wake of a torpedo.
+Reports that the periscope of a submarine showed above the water I have
+reason to reject.
+
+English reports were suppressed--the admiralty claimed this right,
+since there was no loss of life--in the belief that if the ship was
+torpedoed by a submarine, the Germans would give out the first report,
+and thereby be of assistance in determining the cause.  But to-day the
+Germans have their doubt as to where the "Audacious" is, and as to
+whether or not she was ever really sunk.
+
+Expert opinion is divided in authoritative circles in England as to the
+cause of the disaster; but more than 400 mines have been swept up along
+the Irish and Scotch coasts by the English mine sweepers.
+
+While upon this subject, I ought to narrate that the study of this
+topic has convinced me that the Germans have a long task if they hope
+within a reasonable number of months to reduce by submarine torpedo
+practice the efficiency of the English navy to a basis that will
+warrant German warships coming forth to battle.
+
+Every battleship is protected by four destroyers.  Submarines, when
+detected, are the most easily destroyed craft.  They have no protection
+against even a well-directed rifle bullet.  Their whole protection is
+that of invisibility.  Their plan of operation is to reach a position
+during the night, whence in the early morning they can single out an
+unprotected warship or cruiser not in motion, and launch against her
+side a well-directed torpedo, before being discovered.
+
+The place for England's battleships is where they are: in the harbors
+with their protecting nets down until they are called for in battle.
+In motion or action, submarines have little show against them.
+
+The Japanese at Port Arthur found that protecting nets picked up many
+torpedoes and submarines.  Since that time, torpedoes have been made
+with cutting heads to pierce steel nets encircling the warships, but
+their effectiveness has not so far been practically demonstrated.
+
+It is Kitchener's idea to keep the enemy guessing.  Therefore he was
+rather pleased than otherwise when the story of Russians coming through
+England from Archangel was told all over the world.  The War Office
+winked at the story and certainly had no objection to the Germans
+getting a good dose of it.  I think that story might have been helpful
+at the time when the Allies were at their weakest, but they do not now
+need Russians, or stories of Russians, from Archangel.
+
+The story must also go by the board that a submarine north of Ireland
+meant either a new type of boat that could go so far from Germany, or
+an unknown base nearer Scotland.
+
+Submarines as now built could go from Germany around the British Isles
+and then across the Atlantic--in fair weather.
+
+The eastern boundary of France divides itself into four very nearly
+equal sections.  Italy and Switzerland are the lower quarters of this
+boundary line; and of the upper quarters Belgium is the larger and
+Germany the smaller.  The southern half of the German quarter boundary
+is a mountain range and on the open sections stand the great
+fortifications of France and Germany, regarded by both countries as
+practically impregnable.  The defence of France on the Belgian frontier
+was the treaty which guaranteed the neutrality of the smaller country.
+
+When Germany's conquering hosts came through Belgium, the war soon
+became a battle of human beings rather than of fortifications.  Neither
+the French nor the Germans had learned from practical experience the
+modern art of fighting human legions in ground trenches, but both sides
+quickly betook themselves to this rabbit method of warfare.
+
+To-day from Switzerland to the North Sea is a double wall of 4,000,000
+men, all fighting, not only for their own existence but for the
+existence of their nationality--their national ideals.  They are
+protected by aeroplanes, flying above, that keep watch of any large
+movements.
+
+They are backed by 4,000,000 men in reserve and training who keep the
+trenches filled with fighting men, as 10,000 to 20,000 daily retire to
+mother earth, to the hospitals, or to the camps of the imprisoned.  On
+the North Sea and the English Channel they are supported by fleets of
+battleships, cruisers, submarines, and torpedo boat destroyers that
+occasionally "scrap" with each other, the German boats now and then
+attacking the English coast and harbors and the English boats now and
+then assisting to mow down the German troops when they approach too
+near the coast.  But the great dread and key to this naval warfare is
+the modern submarine.
+
+Submarines, aeroplanes, and motor busses are three elements of warfare
+never before put to the test; and the greatest of these thus far is the
+gasolene motor-car.  By this alone Germany may be defeated.  France and
+England are rich in gasolene motor power, and supplies from America are
+open to them.  A year ago there were less than 90,000 motor-cars in
+Germany, and Prince Henry started to encourage motoring to remedy this,
+but the Germans are slow to respond in sport.  Indeed they know little
+of sport as the English understand it, of sportsman ethics or the sense
+of fair play in either sport or war.  They do not comprehend the
+English applause for the captain of the "Emden" and stand aghast at the
+idea that he would be received as a hero in England.  When a daring
+aeroplane flier in the performance of his duty has met with mishap and,
+landed on German soil, he is not welcomed as a hero.  He is struck and
+kicked.
+
+The German is not to be blamed.  It is the way he has been educated to
+"assert himself," as the Germans phrase it.  Indeed, when the captain
+of the "Emden" was taken prisoner and was congratulated by the
+Australian commander for his gallant defense, he was so taken aback
+that he had to walk away and think it over.  He returned to thank his
+adversary for his complimentary remarks.  With true German scientific
+instinct he had to find his defeat in a physical cause, remarking, "It
+was fortunate for you that your first shot took away my speaking tubes."
+
+The English are sports in war,--too sporty in fact.  General Joffre
+warned General French over and over again, "Your officers are too
+audacious; you will soon have none to command," and his words proved
+true.  The English officers felt that the rules of the game called upon
+them to lead their men.  They became targets for the guns of the foe,
+until one of the present embarrassments in England is the unprecedented
+loss of officers.
+
+This has now been changed and Kitchener insists that both officers and
+men shall regard themselves as property of the Empire, that the
+exposure of a single life to unnecessary hazard is a breach of
+discipline.  For this reason Victoria Crosses are not numerous, less
+than two dozen having been conferred thus far; and it has been quietly
+announced that no Victoria Crosses will be conferred for single acts of
+bravery or where only one life is involved.  It must be team work and
+results affecting many.
+
+For this reason also it has been decreed that the 33,000 Canadians in
+training at Salisbury Plain shall not be put in the front until they
+have learned discipline in place of the American initiative.
+
+These Canadian boys receive their home pay of four shillings, or $1 per
+day, while the English Tommy gets one quarter of this amount.  The
+Canadians are fine fellows, feeling their independence and anxious to
+be on the firing line, but the War Office recognizes that soldierly
+independence cannot be allowed in this war.  It is not improbable that
+the Canadian troops will eventually be dispersed that their strong
+individual initiative may be thoroughly harnessed under the
+organization before they are trusted in the trenches.  They are not to
+be permitted to go there to be shot at, but to use their splendid
+physiques, fighting abilities, and patriotism--more British than the
+English themselves--in strict organization.
+
+This is not to be an audacious war on the part of the Allies.  It is
+first a defensive war in which the Germans are the heaviest losers.  On
+the part of the Germans it is an audacious war and its very audacity
+has astounded the whole world.  But Germany never meant to war against
+the world collectively.  That was the accident of her bad diplomacy.
+
+The audaciousness of Prussian war conceptions began in the latter part
+of the last century.  They did not grow out of the war with the French
+in 1870, for Bismarck's legacy to the German nation was a warning
+against any war with Russia.  The German scheme was concocted by the
+successor of Bismarck himself, none other than Kaiser William II.  He
+planned a steady growth of German power that would first vanquish the
+Slav of southeastern Europe and give Germany control through
+Constantinople and Asia Minor to the Persian gulf; then, as opportunity
+arose, a crushing of France and repression of Russia; and the overthrow
+of the British empire; and then the end of the Monroe Doctrine, to be
+followed by American tariffs dictated from Germany.
+
+This seems so audacious a program as to be almost beyond comprehension
+in America.  Yet it will be made clear in the next chapter.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER II
+
+TARIFFS AND COMMERCE THE WAR CAUSES
+
+War with Russia was Inevitable--Finance and Tariffs made Germany
+great--Commercial War--How Germany loses in the United States--The
+Tariff Danger.
+
+
+For the causes of this most audacious war of 1914 one must study, not
+only Germany and her imperial policy, but most particularly her
+relations with Russia.  These relations are very little understood in
+America, but they become vital to us when open to public view.
+
+Disregarding all the counsels of Bismarck and the previous reigning
+Hohenzollerns, the present Kaiser has steadily offended Russia.  War
+with her within two years was inevitable, irrespective of any causes in
+relation to Servia.  Russia knew this and was diligently preparing for
+it.  Germany--the war party of Germany--knew it and with supreme
+audacity determined through Austria first to smash Servia and put the
+Balkan States and Turkey in alignment with herself for this coming war
+with Russia.
+
+Sergius Witte is one of the great statesmen of Russia.  He formulated
+the programme for the Siberian railroad and Russian Asiatic
+development.  The party of nobles opposed to him arranged that he
+should receive the humiliation of an ignoble peace with Japan, under
+which it was expected that Russia would have to pay a huge indemnity.
+
+But when Witte arrived at the naval station at Portsmouth, New
+Hampshire, to make the famous treaty with Japan, his first declaration
+was, "Not one kopeck for indemnity."  He won out and returned in
+triumph to Russia.
+
+But during the progress of the Japanese war Germany thrust her
+commercial treaties upon St. Petersburg.  Goods from Russia into
+Germany were taxed while German goods went under favorable terms into
+Russia, with the result that Russia has had a struggle now for ten
+years to keep her gold basis and her financial exchanges.
+
+It was Witte who was sent to Berlin to protest against these proposed
+treaties and secure more favorable terms.  Witte made his protest and
+refused to accept the German demands.  Then suddenly he received
+peremptory orders from the Czar to grant all the demands of Germany.
+The Czar declared Russia was in no condition to have trouble with
+Germany.  These commercial treaties expire within two years.  Russia
+many months back proposed the discussion of new terms.  Germany
+responded that the present treaties were satisfactory to her and he
+should call for their renewal.
+
+This meant either further humiliation to Russia or war.  Russia had
+already suffered the affront of being forced by Germany at the point of
+the bayonet to assent to the taking by Austria of Bosnia and
+Herzegovina in violation of the Treaty of Berlin.  The Czar realized
+many months ago that Russia must now fight for her commercial life.
+She would not, however, be ready for the war until 1916.
+
+Let Americans consider what this means--a German war over commercial
+tariffs--and see what, if successful in Europe, it would lead to.
+
+The German nation is a fighting unit under the dominion of Prussia, the
+greatest war state, not only of the empire, but of the world.  Having
+welded Germany by the Franco-Prussian war into a nation with unified
+tariffs, transportation, currency, and monetary systems, Prussia has
+been able to point to the war as the cause of the phenomenal prosperity
+of Germany.
+
+It is a popular fallacy in Germany that militarism makes the greatness
+of a nation.  Germany's prosperity did not begin with the war of 1870.
+This was only the beginning of German unity which made possible unified
+transportation and later unified finances and tariffs.  Several years
+after the war, France, which had paid an indemnity to Germany of a
+thousand million dollars, or five billion francs, was found, to the
+astonishment of Bismarck, more prosperous than Germany which had thus
+received the expenses of her military campaign and a dot of Spandau
+Tower war-reserve moneys.
+
+In 1875 came the great Reichsbank Act, which consolidated all the
+banking power of the empire.  Then came her scientific tariffs which
+put up the bars here, and let them down there, according as Germany
+needed export or import trade in any quarter of the earth.  The German
+people, on a soil poorer than that of France, worked hard and long
+hours for small wages.  But they worked scientifically and under the
+most intelligent protective tariff the world has ever seen.  In a
+generation they built up a foreign trade surpassing that of the United
+States and reaching $4,500,000,000 per annum.  By her rate of progress
+she was on the way to distance England, whose ports and business were
+open to her merchants without even the full English income tax.  She
+built the biggest passenger steamers ever conceived of and reached for
+the freight carrying trade of the world.  She mined in coal and iron
+and built solidly of brick and stone.  She put the world under tribute
+to her cheap and scientific chemistry.  She dug from great depths the
+only potash mines in the world and from half this potash she fertilized
+her soil until it laughed with abundant harvests.
+
+The other half she sold outside so that her own potash stood her free
+and a profit besides.  No nation ever recorded the progress that
+Germany made after the inauguration of her bank act and her scientific
+tariffs.  The government permitted no waste of labor, no
+disorganization of industry.  Capital and labor could each combine, but
+there must be no prolonged strikes, no waste, no loss; they must work
+harmoniously together and for the upbuilding of the empire.
+
+Germany did not want war except as means to an end.  She wanted the
+fruits of her industry.  She wanted her people, her trade, and her
+commerce to expand over the surface of the earth, but to be still
+German and to bring home the fruit of German industry.
+
+Germany has been at war--commercial war--with the whole world now for a
+generation, and in this warfare she has triumphed.  Her enterprise, her
+industry, and her merchants have spread themselves over the surface of
+the earth to a degree little realized until her diplomacy again slipped
+and the present war followed--such a war as was planned for by nobody
+and not expected even by herself.  She was giving long credits and
+dominating the trade of South America.  She had given free trade
+England a fright by the stamp, "Made in Germany."  She was pushing
+forward through Poland into Russia to the extent that her merchants
+dominated Warsaw and were spreading out even over the Siberian
+railroad.  Her finance was intertwined with that of London and Paris.
+
+In the United States she was the greatest loser.  Here taxes were
+lowest and freedom greatest.  German blood flowed in the veins of
+20,000,000 Americans and not one fourth of them could she call her own.
+The biggest newspaper publisher in America, William Randolph Hearst,
+figured that New York was one of the big German cities of the world.
+He turned his giant presses to capture the German sentiment.  He spent
+tens of thousands of dollars upon German cable news, devoting at times
+a whole page to cable presentations from Europe which he thought would
+interest Germans.  But the investment proved fruitless; he found there
+was in America no German sentiment such as he had reckoned upon.  He
+could not increase his circulation, for the German-Americans seemed
+little concerned as to what happened in Berlin or Bavaria.
+
+Prussia learned what Hearst learned, that Germans were soon lost in the
+United States.  She studied this exodus and the wage question and by
+various arts and organizations arrested the German emigration to
+America.  She saw to it that employment at home was more stable.  It
+was figured that if the German emigration could be centralized under
+the German eagle it would be to her advantage.  The question was where
+to get land that could be made German.  Europe has for some years
+expected a German dash in Patagonia, and the Europeans outside of
+Germany have taken very kindly of late years to the Monroe Doctrine.
+In Africa and the islands of the sea the German colonial policy has not
+been a success.  Dr. Dernburg as colonial secretary has many a time
+stood up in the Reichstag and warned the Germans that the home military
+system and rules were not adaptable to colonization in foreign parts;
+that Germans must adapt themselves to foreign countries and not attempt
+at first to make their manners the standard in the colonies they
+undertook to dominate.
+
+While German colonies have not yet passed beyond the experimental
+stage, German tariffs and German commerce have been great successes.
+
+The population of Russia is 166,000,000 people.  This is the latest
+figure I gathered from those intimate with the government at St.
+Petersburg.  This is just 100,000,000 more than Germany.  Germany
+thinks she must trade to her own advantage with the people now crowding
+her eastern border.
+
+The example of America in putting up tariff bars against "Made in
+Germany" has many advocates in England and in the rest of the world.
+
+When France, only a few years ago, was angered that Italy should sign
+up in "triple alliance" with Austria and Germany, she did not dare to
+attack Italy with arms, but she did attack Italy by tariff measures,
+and for a time Italy and France fought--by tariffs.
+
+What might be the position of Germany if the American protective tariff
+system were expanded over the earth?  In the view of some people
+tariffs, taxation, and armaments go hand in hand.  There is a town in
+Prussia that finished payment only twenty years ago on the indemnity
+Napoleon exacted from it.
+
+Can a country afford to develop an industrial system dependent upon an
+outside world and then suddenly find the outside world closed by tariff
+barriers?
+
+When an American ambassador protested against Bismarck's discriminatory
+treatment of American pork, the great chancellor asked, "What have you
+to talk with?  You have no army or navy."  "No," said the American
+ambassador, "but we have the ability to build them as big as anybody.
+Do you wish to tempt us?"  "No," said the German chancellor, "and your
+goods shall not be discriminated against."
+
+Dr. Dernburg has given the key to the German colonial military, tariff,
+and financial policy.  German unity in tariffs and transportation has
+made German prosperity, and Dr. Dernburg, her former colonial secretary
+and now in New York, says the mouth of the Rhine and the channel ports
+must be free to Germany and that Belgium must come into tariff and
+transportation union with Germany.  Belgium is being taxed, tariffed,
+pounded, and impounded into the German empire.
+
+There is some difference in size between Belgium and Russia, but no
+difference in principle with respect to their German relations.
+
+"World power or downfall," Bernhardi put it.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER III
+
+THE POLITICAL CAUSES OF THE WAR
+
+A State with no Morals--A Peace Treaty sundered--Where Germany fails--A
+Thunderbolt.
+
+
+Sending his little expedition to China the Kaiser said:--
+
+"When you encounter the enemy you will defeat him; no quarter shall be
+given, no prisoners shall be taken.  Let all who fall into your hands
+be at your mercy.  Just as the Huns one thousand years ago, under the
+leadership of Attila, gained a reputation in virtue of which they still
+live in historical tradition, so may the name of Germany become known
+in such a manner in China that no Chinaman will ever again dare to look
+askance at a German."
+
+Belgium was made an example of.  According to the German idea she
+should have accepted money and not stood in the way of German progress.
+
+German military progress is allied with German commercial progress.  It
+is a mistake in the conception of Germany to imagine that she wars for
+the purpose of war or for the development and training of her men.
+
+The first principle of German "Kultur" as respects the state is that
+the sole business of the government is to advance the interests of the
+state.  No laws having been formulated in respect to the business of a
+state, the government is without moral responsibility, and the laws
+applicable to individual action do not apply to the state.  Individuals
+may do wrong, but the state cannot do wrong.  Individuals may steal and
+be punished therefor, but the state cannot steal.  It is its business
+to expand and to appropriate.  Individuals may murder and be punished
+for the crime, but it is the business of the state to kill for state
+development or progress.
+
+The English-speaking conception of morality is that what applies to an
+individual in a community applies to the aggregate of the individuals,
+that the state is only the aggregate of the individuals exercising the
+natural human functions of government for law and order.
+
+This is entirely outside the German conception.  In the German
+conception a government comes down from above and not up from the
+people.  It is not the people who rule or govern, but the government
+from above rules the people, and the people must implicitly follow and
+obey; thus is national progress and human progress.  The whole of
+Germany believes in the government of the Kaiser: that law and war flow
+down through him and that neither can be questioned by the individual.
+Obedience, union, efficiency, progress, and progress through war, if
+necessary, are cardinal virtues.
+
+Germany does not desire war with Russia, but German progress requires
+the continuance of present tariff relations, and if war is a means to
+that desirable end, war is divine.
+
+The murder of the Crown Prince of Austria was an incident furnishing
+Germany and Austria opportunity to carry out their long-conceived
+programme for the extension of their influence through the growing
+state of Servia.
+
+A treaty had been arranged between Greece and Turkey, and was to have
+been signed in July, which would have settled many things in respect to
+Turkey and the Balkan states.  Roumania and Servia were in agreement
+concerning this great measure for peace in southeastern Europe.
+
+When all was ready for the final conference and the signatures, Austria
+intervened and announced her opposition.  Then suddenly followed the
+bombshell of the ultimatum to Servia, timed at the precise moment to
+stop the signing of this Turkish treaty.
+
+Austrian officials admitted privately as follows, and I have it
+directly from parties to the negotiations:--
+
+"We are satisfied that Servia would punish the murderers of Prince
+Ferdinand if we so requested.  We are satisfied she would apologize to
+Austria if we requested it.  But our aims go beyond.  We demand that
+instead of the proposed Turkish treaty the Balkan states shall come
+into union with Turkey under the influence of Austria.  To accomplish
+this we must accept no apology, but must punish Servia.  We are
+satisfied that Russia is in no financial or military position to
+interfere."
+
+Germany with its enormous spy system had secured copies of the
+confidential state papers of the Czar and transmitted them to Vienna.
+In these were warnings, statistics, and compilations showing all the
+financial and military weaknesses of Russia: that her great gold
+reserve had been largely loaned out and was not available cash on hand,
+as the world had been led to believe; that it would take eighteen
+months more of preparation to place her military forces in position to
+defend the country; that her arms and the factories to build them were
+not ready.
+
+The plans of Austria and Germany were to line up the Balkan states,
+under German political and trade influences, and then within two years
+to have it out with Russia and again impose the German tariffs upon
+her.  If France dared to come in, it would certainly be an attack, and
+Italy would, under the Triple Alliance, assist to defend Austria and
+Germany.  Defeating Russia, Germany could, at that time or later, crush
+France in the manner in which Bismarck had said she might eventually be
+crushed by Germany for Germany's progress.
+
+Then, having made more onerous tariff treaties with France than were
+exacted from her in 1870 and having extended German trade and military
+influence over Russia, Germany would be in a position with her navy to
+try out the long desired issue with Great Britain for the control of
+the seas.
+
+Admiral Von Tirpitz told the emperor that it must be at least two years
+more before the German navy would be able to try conclusions with
+England.
+
+The German plan was to take the European countries one at a time.  The
+German information was that every country except Germany was
+unprepared, and that information was true.  She was fully prepared
+except in her navy.
+
+One of the leaders among those great business Lords of England, who sit
+with the Commoners in business, but in the House of Lords as respects
+legislation, said to me when I spoke of the wonderful intelligence of
+Germany in research and data, scientific and political: "But, don't you
+think that the Germans had too much information and too little
+judgment?"
+
+In other words, they had a stomach full of facts but no capacity to
+digest them.  They knew as much about Ulster and perhaps more than
+London as respects facts and detailed information, but they were in no
+position to pass judgment upon Ulster or the unity of the British
+Empire the moment there was an attack from the outside.  The Germans
+have dealt in materialistic facts.  But with the spirit that moulds and
+makes history they are all awry.  With the Germans, individuals are
+units and are counted from the outside, never from the inside.  That is
+why her diplomacy is not only a failure, but offensive: it never
+differentiates among nations and peoples according to that which is
+within the mind and the heart of the people.
+
+The German Emperor directed the Austrian ultimatum to Servia, insisting
+upon stronger demands than were at first proposed.  Then, turning his
+back upon the scene, he was able to protest that he was not
+responsible.  Yet the published correspondence from every capital in
+Europe now shows that the German Emperor fenced off every attempt to
+get Austria to modify or postpone or discuss her demands.  Germany was
+ready for everything except the interference of Great Britain.
+
+A private telephone rang at five o'clock one morning in Berlin and an
+American lady was informed from a social quarter that "Something
+dreadful has happened."  "Something awful--something undreamed of."
+The American lady quickly asked, "Has the Kaiser been assassinated?" as
+the tone over the telephone indicated nothing less.
+
+The response was, "England has declared war!"
+
+That was the most unlooked-for step in all the German calculations.
+
+Every spy report, every diplomatic agency, military and civil, had
+reported that England was out of the running: Ireland in revolution,
+India in sedition, Canada, Australia, and South Africa just ready to
+break away from the British yoke.
+
+The conception of the British empire as a federation of free peoples
+governing themselves, under a constitutional monarchy, is something
+incomprehensible in the German idea of government.  The German idea is
+of colonies attached to and paying tribute to the crown, something to
+be ruled over, governed, taxed, and made to serve.
+
+Russia might go to war exposing in the field her weakness already
+spread out on paper by Russian authorities, with copies in Vienna and
+Berlin; but that England or Great Britain could or would fight at this
+time was an impossibility; although later England was to become "The
+vassal of Germany."
+
+And the wonderment of Germany has become the wonderment of the world.
+"Roll up," said Kitchener, and 2,000,000 men sprang to arms.  More than
+800,000 of them are on the Continent; 1,700,000 of them are in training.
+
+"Roll up," said Lloyd George, the Chancellor of the British Exchequer;
+and $1,700,000,000 of war loan is rolling into the British Treasury, a
+sum one half the national debt of England and nearly twice the national
+debt of the United States.
+
+If necessary, the number of men in arms will be doubled to 4,000,000
+and the enormous subscription just made to England's war loan will be
+doubled and quadrupled.
+
+The life of the empire as respects money and men is at stake, and no
+sacrifice is too great.  If treaties are "scraps of paper" and neutral
+states are to have no rights or protection, there is no safety in the
+world, no sacredness of contracts; the world is at an end and chaos
+reigns.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER IV
+
+PEACE PROPOSALS
+
+The Bagdad Railroad--The English Oil Concession--The German Alliance
+with Turkey--Austria the Hand of Germany--The Decay of Turkey--The New
+Map.
+
+
+How ridiculous are American peace proposals concerning the Audacious
+War of 1914 may be judged from this announcement which I am able to
+make:--
+
+The return of the French government from Bordeaux to Paris was
+determined upon from two points of view: safety and political
+necessity.  The French people were angered that Paris should have been
+deserted, but notwithstanding the political reasons, which were more
+forceful than the public will be permitted to know, the return would
+not have been undertaken had not the military authorities considered
+the move a safe one.  How safe will be evidenced by this--that at both
+Bordeaux and Paris this problem was before the authorities: "Events
+have now progressed so far that it is time for the Allies to consider
+what will be their terms of peace.  These terms must be divided into
+many classes, ranging from those in which only one of the Allies has an
+interest to those in which all have an interest.  Of course, the latter
+will be the most complex, and it is time now to begin with the
+complexities of the most far-reaching situation.  This is Mesopotamia
+and the Bagdad railroad."
+
+Now who in Washington knows anything about Mesopotamia or the Bagdad
+railroad?  Yet here is the key of the most far-reaching problem in any
+peace proposals.  It is because this matter can now be settled that the
+plunging of Turkey into the war by Enver Bey has made all Europe
+rejoice.  The Germans think Turkey is another 16 1/2-inch howitzer or
+"Jack Johnson" putting black smoke over the British empire.  The rest
+of Europe now knows the whole of Turkey is on the table, and the
+carving, it is believed, will be had with no plates extended from
+either Austria or Germany.  For the first time the Turkish problem can
+be really settled instead of patched.
+
+Some years ago I was astonished to learn in Europe that American
+banking interests, and American contracting and engineering firms in
+alliance therewith, had their eyes upon Asia Minor and the possibility
+of its development by American railroad enterprise.  I was astonished
+to learn that some people at Constantinople had authority for the use
+of the name of J. P. Morgan & Co.  Indeed, a railroad concession in
+Asia Minor, the details of which it is not now necessary to go into,
+had been arranged, I was told, and lacked only signatures.  The
+American people felt that the Germans were the little devils under the
+table who stayed the hand of the Sultan, and kept his pen off the
+parchment.  Never would the signature come down on that paper, although
+declared to have been many times promised.
+
+The English were, of course, vitally interested in any railroad
+concessions in Asia Minor as opening the route to the Persian Gulf and
+India.  Money talks with Turkey as nowhere else.  The Germans had made
+a great impression upon the Bosphorus.  Nobody at that point in the
+geography of the world could fail to see the wonderful commercial
+progress of the Germans and the military power that stood behind ready
+to back it up.
+
+A concession for a railroad from the Bosphorus to Bagdad and through
+Mesopotamia to the Persian Gulf finally went to Germany, and the
+signature of the Sultan was at the bottom of the paper.  There was, of
+course, the usual Oriental compromise, and the concession for the oil
+fields of Mesopotamia went to the English; but the signature of the
+Sultan is still lacking to that piece of paper.
+
+English statesmen announced that the Bagdad railroad was a purely
+private enterprise, financed in Germany by people associated with the
+Deutsche Bank.  They had later to confess that error.  Germany laughed
+and later openly announced that the Bagdad railroad was a Prussian
+enterprise of state.  In fact, this concession, which is likely to be
+famous in history when the Allies win, was handed over to the German
+Emperor personally by the Sultan.
+
+Already a thousand miles of this road have been constructed through
+Asia Minor to Mosul.  The concession carries the mineral rights for ten
+miles on either side of the railroad, except through the oil fields of
+Mesopotamia, said to be among the greatest of the oil fields of the
+world.  They are really part of the famous Russian oil territory
+between Batum and Baku, or the Black and Caspian seas, which extends
+not only south into Mesopotamia but is now being developed far to the
+north in the Ural Mountains of Great Russia.
+
+Steadily the influence of Germany progressed with Turkey, now through
+one channel, now through another.  When the Bulgarian war broke out, it
+was German guns and German officers and German money that upheld the
+Turks.  The French put their money on Bulgaria by bank loans to her
+treasury.  The Russians backed Servia.  The French laughed and so did
+all Europe when the Turkish troops manned by German officers were
+beaten back to Constantinople and the Bosphorus.
+
+Austria extended the hand of friendship to Bulgaria and induced her to
+attack her allies, Servia and Greece, thus making the second Balkan
+war.  The result was the loss by Bulgaria of part of the territory she
+had acquired and a further augmentation in the importance of Servia.
+Bulgaria has never forgiven either Servia or Austria for this defeat.
+
+The Servians are the pure-blooded Slavs, while the Bulgarians have a
+Turkish admixture, whence their great fighting qualities.  The
+Roumanians just north of Bulgaria are Italians, and the defeat of
+Turkey in Africa by Italy did not lessen the importance of this
+enterprising nation on the Danube, fronting Austria-Hungary and Russia.
+Both Austria and Germany were losers in all three wars; while the
+treaty ending the second Balkan war magnified Servia of the Slav race
+of Russia.  This is the important and crucial point in race and
+geography.
+
+Austria, as the hand of Germany, still demanded a union of all these
+Balkan states with Turkey and under the aegis of Austria,--which meant,
+of course, Germany.
+
+The aim of Germany in alliance with Turkey was, through Austria in
+_quasi_-sovereignty over the Balkan states, to carry German influence
+by the Bagdad railroad right through Asia Minor to the Persian Gulf.
+Germany would thus be, when the work was finished, a mighty military
+empire with rail communications cleaving the center of Europe and
+extending through Asia Minor to Eastern waters.  With her growing
+steamship lines she would touch her colonies in the Pacific and her
+mighty naval base at Kiao-Chau in the Far East.
+
+Now, while Germany is besieged on all sides and Italy and Roumania are
+preparing to go into the war with the Allies that they may have their
+part and parcel in the settlements, it is recognized that it is none
+too early for the Allies to consider the map of the entire eastern
+hemisphere and tackle that most difficult problem, the Bagdad railroad,
+from which Turkey, Asia Minor, Mesopotamia, and Palestine, the great
+historic countries of the world, must be parcelled out or dominated and
+developed.
+
+The followers of Mohammed are no longer a unit.  They number
+175,000,000 people in the aggregate, but India and Egypt have gradually
+receded in sentiment from decadent Turkey, now numbering only about
+20,000,000 people, and defended by an army of about 1,000,000.  But
+this is no longer an army of united, fighting Mohammedan Turks; only a
+mixed army lacking in unity, discipline, efficiency and financial base.
+
+Indeed, such are the financial straits of Turkey that a ten per cent
+tax has been levied upon the property of the people.  If you hold
+property in Turkey and cannot pay ten per cent of the value the
+authorities have assessed against it, it may be sold or confiscated for
+the tax.
+
+Where the money goes, nobody knows.  German influence with Turkey has a
+financial base; 6,000,000 pounds sterling or 100,000,000 marks went
+from Germany to Constantinople just before the war, according to
+reports I have from people in the international exchange markets.  From
+diplomatic sources I learn that this was just one half of the payment
+made by Germany to Turkey.  The other 100,000,000 marks was probably
+paid in war supplies, including the two famous German warships that the
+English allowed to escape from the Mediterranean into Turkish waters.
+
+The little English boy was right who returned from school the other day
+and said, "Hurray!  I don't have to study any more geography; the old
+maps are to be torn up and the new map has not yet been made."
+
+It is because of the making of this new map that European diplomacy is
+rolling on underneath the surface faster than ever before.  Bulgaria
+has demanded as the price of her neutrality that she shall have what
+she lost in the second Balkan war.  The Allies have responded: "What
+you get must depend upon what Servia gets from Austria and in the
+carving up of Albania."  Austria-Hungary may lose Bosnia, Herzegovina,
+Dalmatia, and some more.  So far as Servia acquires territory here
+Bulgaria may push farther south, recovering Adrianople and more sea
+coast on the Aegean.
+
+Roumania wants Transylvania just north in Hungary, occupied by
+2,500,000 people, the majority Roumanians--this will make her
+10,000,000 people--and Italy wants territory from Austria and naval
+ports on the Adriatic sea.
+
+Neither Italy nor Roumania has its full war supplies and equipments.
+Servia, however, has been terribly pounded by Austria and but for her
+good fortune in pushing Austria back out of Servia in December, the
+Roumanians with their 450,000 well-organized troops might have had to
+come to her assistance earlier than was prepared for.  Indeed, it is
+now expected that Italy and Roumania will move against Austria within a
+few weeks.  Russia and the Allies are making their agreements for this
+intervention.
+
+And what does America know about these movements on the European
+chessboard, and upon what basis should she aspire to be arbiter or
+peace adviser?
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER V
+
+FRANCE AND THE FRENCH
+
+Signs of War not Conspicuous--Paris reopened--A Rejuvenation--English
+and American Help--French Casualties--French Heroes.
+
+
+One enters France nowadays by the Folkestone and Dieppe route, which is
+a four-hour Channel trip or longer, or by Folkestone and Boulogne, a
+Channel trip of ninety minutes more or less.  All the routes to Calais
+are used by the government for its troops, supplies, and munitions.
+England's hospital base is at Boulogne.  Here is the center of her Red
+Cross work, with a dozen big hospital ships commandeered from the P. &
+O. line and bearing distinctive stripes around their hulls.  One
+hospital ship is set apart for the wounded Indians, and the apartments
+within are fitted up according to the various religious castes
+prevalent among the troops of India now fighting in France and
+Flanders.  Here at times puts in Lord Zetland's yacht, fitted out by
+Queen Alexandra for wounded English officers.
+
+When you travel by rail, if you did not know that war was in the
+country you would never suspect it, unless you wondered why a
+red-hatted, blue-coated guard, with a rifle carelessly swung over his
+shoulder, is noticeable now and then by a cross-road or near the
+buttress of an important railroad bridge.  You pass trains of troops,
+but the uniforms are quiet, the men jovial and unwarlike.  The wounded
+are not conspicuously moved by day.
+
+Although you are not many miles away from the firing line, where an
+average of more than ten thousand are daily falling, the country is as
+peaceful and quiet as can be imagined.  The big black and white horses
+are winter ploughing.  The red and black cattle and the sheep and hogs
+are grazing in fields and pastures.  The reddening willows speak of an
+early spring, and the full blue streams tell the brown grasses, and the
+tall poplars that their colors will soon be gayer.
+
+As the shadows fall, no guard comes as in England to pull your curtain
+down according to military orders; and, as you approach Paris, you see
+families dining by uncurtained windows in blazing light.  You are
+astonished after your London experience of semi-darkness to find the
+boulevards ablaze and no apparent fear of aerial enemies or
+sky-invasion, although aeroplanes and Zeppelins and bombs may be flying
+and fighting only eighty miles away.  Now and then a searchlight
+illumines the heavens, but even searchlights are far less conspicuous
+than in London.  In January the lights were ordered to be lowered; but
+Paris will not stand for long London fog, gloom, or darkness.  The
+French atmosphere and life demand light.
+
+Paris is gradually getting accustomed to the situation.  More than 30
+first-class hotels are partially opened and advertising.  Many of the
+business streets have a semi-Sunday appearance.  Boulevards running
+from the Place de l'Opéra are well filled with people, and nearly all
+of the stores are now open.  In the first weeks of December you could
+see the reopening day by day, and when on the 10th the government
+returned to Paris, the art stores and the jewelry stores joined with
+the confectioners, trunk dealers, and book-men, and threw open shutters
+that had been closed four months.
+
+Paris is now normal but not crowded.  Theaters are reopening, but the
+restaurants must be closed at ten P.M.  The inhabitants young and old
+picnic in the Bois de Boulogne and evince most interest in the defences
+about the Paris gates,--the moats, the new trenches that have been dug,
+and the tree-trunks that have been thrown down with their branches and
+tops pointing outward as though to interrupt the progress of an enemy.
+Buildings have been taken down, and the forts of Paris stand forth as
+never before; but when you learn how unmanned and how useless they are
+in modern warfare, you can but smile and join with the people in their
+curiosity excursions.  A single modern shell can put a modern
+stone-and-steel fort, garrison and guns, entirely out of commission.
+
+A year ago Paris looked dirty and decadent.  Her building fronts were
+grimy, her streets were dirty, and there was a general carelessness
+where before had been art, precision, and cleanliness.  To-day Paris
+streets are clean.  There is even more evidence of rebuilding and of
+modern conveniences.  Motor street-sweepers whirl through the squares,
+not singly but in pairs and more extended series, and they move with
+automobile rapidity, quickly cleansing the pavement.
+
+I was reminded thereby of a personal experience at the breaking out of
+the Spanish-American War.  At breakfast on a Sunday morning with one of
+America's most successful millionaires, I said, "How is it possible
+that the stock market can be rising as the country is going to war--a
+war that may cause some of our new warships to turn turtle and may
+bring bombardment upon our sea-coast cities?  Yet before the guns are
+booming the stock market is booming.  Indeed, the stock market began to
+boom from the time we declared a state of war."
+
+And this successful multi-millionaire replied quietly, "Stocks are
+going up because I am buying them and every other intelligent
+capitalist is buying them.  Look out of the window there.  That sweeper
+at the crossing has straightened up and is sweeping that crossing
+better and with more energy because the flags are flying, and the bells
+are ringing, and the guns will soon be booming.  War is the greatest
+energizer of a people.  There is now profit in industry and enterprise,
+and financial equities have increased value."  And for nearly ten years
+the stock market booms followed in the wake of that war boom, while
+construction and upbuilding went steadily forward despite agitation and
+restricting laws.
+
+It would astonish Mr. Wilson and Mr. Bryan to know how many patriotic
+Americans are helping France and what they are doing in Red Cross and
+other work.  I was surprised to meet a former member of the New York
+Stock Exchange in a khaki uniform.  I said, "Are you still an American
+citizen?"  He responded promptly, "Certainly I am, but would not the
+boys on the floor of the Exchange be astonished to see me in this
+uniform?"
+
+I said, "Were there not men enough here to do this work?"
+
+He responded, "Possibly, but quick organization was wanted, and I
+volunteered and have held the job."  And he was off in his high-powered
+automobile for a run down behind the firing line to one of the Channel
+ports.
+
+As the casualties of the French have been ten times those of the
+English, American and English sympathizers have turned to France to see
+if they might "do something."  An English lady with small feet and
+delicate hands responded to the spirit of the hour, left her English
+home and her servants, and went to the hospital front in France.  She
+wrote home: "I am helping not only to dress the wounds, but to wash
+dishes.  My soft hands are parboiled but hardening; my feet are sore;
+and my legs are swollen.  I lie down thoroughly exhausted every night,
+but I am doing something and am happy."
+
+Mrs. W. L. Wyllie, wife of the famous marine etcher on the south
+English coast, looked out upon the Channel war-scenes, and took ship
+for France.  She found the center and south of the country one vast
+hospital.  At Limoges alone she found more than 12,000 wounded, and
+32,000 wounded had passed through that city.  She found the hospital in
+need of special bandages and cross-bandages for multiple wounds, and
+back she flew to England for bales of bandages.  For weeks she was
+crossing and recrossing the English Channel.  Soldiers have recovered
+from as many as twenty and thirty bullet-wounds in the flesh.
+
+An American lady assisting in the English Red Cross work told me that
+she saw 2000 wounded every day for eleven days arriving at Boulogne.
+About the middle of December I learned that orders had been given to
+clear the Boulogne hospital base and prepare for a large number of
+wounded.  Relief days for the troops at the front were shortened, and
+it was intimated to me in good quarters that the Germans would enjoy no
+Christmas in their trenches.  The Allies advanced, counted their dead
+and wounded, and ceased in the attack.
+
+I do not believe that any great forward movement can be made on either
+side from or against these trenches in the winter time.  In good
+strategy and diplomacy, the break-up of Germany should come from other
+quarters.
+
+There is considerable typhoid arising from the trench-work, but I heard
+it stated in medical circles that the Servian troops, with their milder
+climate, had found a new way of healing wounds.  Not having the
+hospital base and equipment of other countries, they heal their wounds
+in the open air with the result that there is no tetanus or lock-jaw.
+In Switzerland human tuberculosis is now being cured by exposing the
+chest, directly over the affection, to the full rays of the sun.
+
+The casualties of this war have been tremendous for France.  No lists
+of her dead or wounded are published; it was at first a life-and-death
+struggle.  While the total casualties--killed, wounded, missing, and
+prisoners--were estimated in the press reports and by the people as
+600,000, I happen to know that they were more than 1,000,000.  Of
+these, of course, one third or more will return to the battle-line, and
+the French have the satisfaction of knowing that the German losses are
+far larger.  But, viewed from a financial standpoint, if this war is
+not too prolonged or too costly in life and treasure, France will
+emerge from it rejuvenated and reënergized.
+
+Her people are serious and determined as never before.  They now
+welcome strong work and strong hands, and if the Republic does not
+respond to the responsibilities of the hour, they will not as in 1870
+burn and destroy, but will set up another government in quick order and
+wipe out the weakness and inefficiency found to exist when the strain
+came in August, 1914.
+
+The French nation has never before been put to such a trial.  In every
+other war there has been no threat of the destruction of France.
+Indeed, up to 1870 France was the great nation of Europe, greatest in
+war as well as greatest in peace.  When she attacked Germany in 1870,
+she started for Berlin with full confidence in her greatness.  And when
+she paid to the Germans a billion dollars in 1871, it was with scorn
+and contempt: "Take your money and get out!"
+
+When Bismarck in 1875 discovered the prosperity of France, he cunningly
+set about encompassing her downfall.  He knew the world would not
+approve of Germany attacking a foreign foe; there was no excuse that
+could be found.
+
+Therefore, as he himself has confessed, he started France into
+empire-colonial upbuilding in Africa and Asia, with the full intention
+of leading her into a clash with England.  When this point was reached
+many years afterwards, Delcassé clearly saw the situation, and, instead
+of war, made friends with England.  All the world knows the result.
+Germany demanded his resignation from the French Cabinet under threat
+of war.  France was humiliated, Delcassé dropped.  Later he led the
+movement to strengthen the navy of France as well as the army.  It may
+be declared that Delcassé created the Triple Entente and thereby saved
+France and Europe.  To-day France fights a wholly defensive battle,
+supported on the one side by the Russian bear and on the other by the
+British lion.  And strongest in the new cabinet of France stands
+Delcassé.
+
+France was chastened by the war of 1870.  She will be crushed or
+redeemed by the war of 1915.  The spirit of her people to-day is the
+spirit of sacrifice.  The French character never before shone forth so
+nobly.
+
+"What a terrible disfigurement!" exclaimed a thoughtless lady as she
+visited the wounded in a great French hospital.
+
+"Not a disfigurement at all, madame," exclaimed the French soldier.  "A
+decoration!"
+
+Out of this war may come great political and military heroes.  There is
+one general in France to-day whose name is not widely known but of whom
+his associates say, "He is not only the equal but the superior of
+Napoleon."  But the great hero throughout Europe to-day is the King of
+the Belgians, of that little country that grew daily bigger in the eyes
+of the world as it grew daily smaller in possessed territory.  There
+are those who believe that France and Belgium will be hereafter closer
+together than before, and that--stranger things have happened--the King
+of the little Belgians might be no greater miracle for France than the
+little Corsican more than one hundred years ago.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER VI
+
+THE POSITION OF FRANCE
+
+The Iron Hand of War--Paris offered in Sacrifice--Faulty
+Mobilization--The French Army--The Joffre Strategy--The German Retreat.
+
+
+The position of France to-day cannot be compared with that of any other
+country in the war.  The French people have a distinctive genius all
+their own.  They are still the greatest people in art in the world.
+Nothing in sculpture or painting in the outside world yet rivals the
+skill of France.  Politically the French are trusting children,
+vibrating between empires and republics, and following only the rule of
+success.  In finance they were accounted great a generation ago.  In
+savings they have been regarded as world-leaders.
+
+When the stern reality of military necessity suddenly confronted France
+five months ago, there was the same old story of graft, fraud, and a
+deceived people.
+
+But the war authorities gripped France with an iron hand.  The military
+traitors and grafters are in jail.  The weaklings in the official line
+have been cashiered.  The politically undesirable have been given
+foreign missions.
+
+There was political as well as military wisdom in the return of the
+government from Bordeaux to Paris.  The French people were shocked when
+they learned that the boasted military defences of Paris, "the most
+extensive fortifications in the world," embracing 400 square miles,
+were unprovisioned and indefensible, that the government had fled, and
+that there was no army to save the city.
+
+Indeed, the authorities had determined to sacrifice Paris to save
+France.  General Joffre had no men to spare to be bottled up in the
+city.  He determined that his armies should be kept free on the field.
+
+You may ask anywhere in France, Belgium, or England why the French did
+not come to the relief of Belgium, why Paris was undefended, and what
+saved it after Von Kluck had led seven armies of 1,000,000 men down to
+its very gates, and you will get no satisfactory answer.
+
+But when you have studied the situation and the record, you will see
+that no simple answer can be readily given.  A brief one would be:
+French mobilization plans were imperfect, and, therefore, Belgium could
+not be defended by the French.  But motor-busses did what the railroads
+were unprepared to do, and finally saved Paris and France.
+
+The French had been warned many months publicly and privately that
+their mobilization plans would be found faulty in case of sudden
+hostilities.  The railways moved perishable goods at the rate of thirty
+miles a day while German and Austrian railways bore military trains at
+the rate of thirty miles an hour.
+
+So ill prepared were the French in their mobilization plans that they
+actually summoned to arms the men who were to man the railways, and the
+railways themselves were deficient in rolling-stock to move the troops.
+The citizens responded promptly enough, but France had no bureaucracy
+or military plans to match those of Germany, and, as throughout French
+history, the leaders of the people failed at the crucial moment.  The
+plodding English had to help out the French railway plans, and then had
+to turn around and find their own railroad defects.  When England first
+sounded the call to arms, men deserted the railroad service to go into
+training to such an extent that the authorities had to stop it and
+maintain transportation as, of course, an important arm of the
+war-service.
+
+The history of the unpreparedness of both England and France has yet to
+be written.  It would not be useful to print much that is already
+known.  There are two political sentiments in both countries, and
+political issues will rise again in both after the war.
+
+A little contemplation here will show the extravagance of many
+estimates of the number of men to be put in the field in time of war.
+Many estimates have taken little account of the number of men required
+to handle a modern transportation service, and the supply organization
+to back up an effective army at the front.  Transportation and
+war-supplies are on such an expanded basis as was not dreamed of a few
+years ago.  The war plans of one generation cannot be the war plans of
+another either on land or sea.  That France had 4,500,000 men capable
+of bearing arms did not mean that she could hold 4,000,000 men in
+fighting array at any one time.
+
+After five months of war France had only 1,500,000 men at the front,
+and from the camps and military organizations she expects to have ready
+a fresh army of another million in the spring.  But she mobilized
+nearly 4,000,000 men.  Paris industry, trade, and commerce could shut
+down in a day, but there was no organization that could make in a day
+or a week the men of France into an army at the front.  Her 600,000
+regular troops were, of course, always in position to be thrown on the
+defensive at the German frontier.  None of the nearly 4,000,000
+additional men could be got with arms and munitions of war into
+Belgium, to meet effectively the trained troops of Germany.
+
+The German troops were "moving" as early as July 25, while all the
+governments of Europe, including Austria, were negotiating for and
+hopeful of peace.  When war was declared against France, she promptly
+offered Belgium five French army corps for defence.  King Albert
+declined, saying there had been no invasion of Belgium by Germany, and
+that Belgian neutrality was guaranteed by treaty.  Within two days the
+German guns were firing on Belgium; but when King Albert then called
+upon France for protection, the response was that the French troops
+which had been offered had been placed elsewhere.  The regular troops
+probably had.  The new troops were not mobilized, and the French
+transportation system, to say the least, had not been as responsive as
+expected.
+
+France paid dearly for her unpreparedness.  Her richest provinces were
+invaded by the Germans and are still held by the Germans in
+considerable part.
+
+Caught unprepared, there was only one safe thing for General Joffre to
+do--let the Germans expand far from their base while the French
+concentrated between the German border and Paris, to strike back at the
+opportune moment against an extended and weakened line.
+
+The march of the armies of Von Kluck--"General One O'clock," they
+called him, and said his fiercest attacks were at one o'clock--is
+considered a masterpiece of military precision.  The strategy of
+General Joffre which foiled him is praised throughout France.
+
+The plan of the Germans was to hold the north of France with the army
+of Von Kluck while the Crown Prince moved from Luxemburg straight to
+Paris.  This was theatrical, dramatic, and Kaiserlike; but the French
+would not consent.  They persisted in holding Verdun and defeating the
+armies of the Crown Prince.
+
+The English are the greatest fighters in the world in retreat, while
+the French can fight best in a forward movement.  The little
+expeditionary army of England, originally 100,000 men but at this time
+180,000 men, held the right flank of Von Kluck in the retreat from
+river to river, from hill to hill, although pounded by 350,000 trained
+German troops massed on this flank.  This retreat put the stamp of
+English bravery and dogged determination, as before, on the map of
+Europe.  Paris was open and exposed to any entry which the Germans
+wished to make.  The government had retired, the gold reserves of the
+banks had been moved, the people in large numbers had fled.
+
+Indeed, I may say what has never before been printed, that President
+Poincaré summoned the "architect" of the city to the American embassy
+and, with tears streaming down his face, told him whence he must take
+his orders in the future.
+
+Then in a flash went the orders of Joffre along his whole concentrated
+line of troops: "The retreat has ended, not another foot; you die here
+or the enemy goes back!"  He had chosen the psychological moment.  The
+French and English had burned and broken the bridges as they retreated,
+and with the recoil the German communications were in danger.
+
+A fresh force of 50,000 held in reserve near Paris flew by motors and
+motor-busses against the right wing of Von Kluck, which the English in
+retiring had been punishing so heavily.  Von Kluck had been drawn too
+far into France with no support on his left from the army of the Crown
+Prince, which the French had held at bay but with a tremendous
+sacrifice of men.  The German ammunition and supply-trains were broken
+and the armies of Von Kluck were hurled back from Paris about as
+rapidly as they had come forward.
+
+Then the Kaiser took a hand and cried, "Now for the English; take the
+Channel ports; forward against Calais!" and again, as at Liége, the
+blood of the Germans soaked the soil of Belgium.  The Allies dug
+themselves into the ground behind the rivers and canals, and drowned
+the Germans out in front; and when an advance by the seacoast was
+attempted, the English naval guns spilled havoc into the German
+battalions.  Four nationalities grappled in a death-struggle, but the
+wall of the Allies held from Switzerland to the sea.  The Allies worked
+most harmoniously.  Belgian knowledge of topography proved superior to
+the German general-staff maps.  The English buttressed the French
+financially and in transportation and food-supplies.  Indeed, Kitchener
+at one time fed two French army corps, or 80,000 troops, for eleven
+days without a hitch.
+
+Although England had not the trained men, she had the fundamental
+military organization, transportation, food, and finance.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER VII
+
+FRENCH FINANCE
+
+Delayed Budgets--The Caillaux Position--Outgeneralled in Finance--Gold
+Reserves Undiminished--Allied Finance--No Financial Legislation--The
+National Defense Loans.
+
+
+The spectacle of England loaning money to rich France--20,000,000
+pounds sterling, or $100,000,000--was something most surprising.
+
+The French have been considered among the best financiers and
+economists of Europe.  The whole world has been envious of the saving
+ability of France, and has invited the overflow of her accumulations
+into their local enterprises.  For many years France has had the lowest
+interest rates and a considerable surplus to invest in outside
+countries.  It is upon France that Russia has mainly relied for funds
+for her expanding industrial development.  In the Baring crisis she
+sent her gold to London to fortify the situation, and in the American
+crisis of 1907 she extended her hand across the sea.  Then she turned
+about and steadily built up her gold reserve in the Bank of France,
+from $500,000,000 to above $800,000,000, although her people were not
+expanding in population, industry, or enterprise.  France had grown so
+confident that she seemed at one time to have lost her financial
+cunning.
+
+In Germany in 1913 I was told that German finance had passed through
+the "fire test," that two years of building recession and of expanding
+commerce had placed her on a solid financial base; and it was true.
+
+I was told to step over to Paris and see a disordered budget, an
+increasing national deficit, bad investments in Mexico and South
+America, and disorganized finance.  I did and found it all true.  I
+also found that France was fully able to take care of herself without
+any outside help, and, but for the specter of outside interference, to
+delay her financing if she so elected.
+
+It has been something of a mystery as to how there could be two Balkan
+wars and so little of public finance behind them.  Of course, Russia
+and France helped the Balkan States and Germany helped Turkey.  The
+money of France came from the French banks and was loaned to the
+treasuries of the Balkan States and to Greece--to Bulgaria 350,000,000
+francs; to Greece 250,000,000.
+
+The French government said that this could not be financed by public
+issue after the war until the national budget itself had been arranged,
+although French bankers were permitted to float a $50,000,000 Servian
+loan.  With the increasing cost of labor and supplies the French
+railways had been steadily running behind, and France had to face a
+deficit in her budget of something like 1,000,000,000 francs, or
+$200,000,000, per annum.
+
+It was proposed last January that the government should consolidate its
+indebtedness and put its financial house in order, by an issue of
+long-term securities; but Caillaux opposed the programme and defeated
+it for many months.  This postponed the issue of the Balkan States'
+loans.
+
+To-day Caillaux is about the most hated man in France.  Although he is
+financially well-to-do, the people believe that his connections and
+sympathy with Germany were too close.  The German press took his side
+in the famous Calmette shooting affair and the trial of Madame
+Caillaux, and all this record now stands forth most threateningly in
+the French blood.
+
+I may perhaps be permitted to say that M. Caillaux has been under
+arrest, and that the police of Paris have declared they would not be
+responsible for his safety.  It has, therefore, been diplomatically
+arranged by the government that he should be now in Brazil upon a
+semi-diplomatic and trade mission.
+
+The French loan just before the war was not a popular success.  The
+reason is now obvious.  It was sold short from other European capitals
+where it was better known that war was in the air.
+
+When a famous "bear" operator reappeared upon the Paris Bourse after
+his return from Vienna, whence he had conducted his attack on the
+French loan, he was greeted with a storm of hisses.  The French Bourse
+is a government institution and must support the credit of France and
+her allies.  In Vienna they knew war was planned for the end of
+September, even before the assassination of the Austrian Crown Prince
+at Serajevo June 28.  This event hastened but did not make the war.
+
+Nevertheless, instead of permitting the French banks to bring out the
+Balkan loans thereafter, the French authorities allowed Turkey to come
+into the French market with a loan for 25,000,000 pounds, or
+625,000,000 francs.
+
+Some people pleaded with them that this money would be used against
+France, and that every franc would go to repay the German loans; and
+they were right.
+
+In this financial situation France was suddenly plunged into war, and
+while Germany and England have been raising money by the billion, the
+marvelous thing is that France has made no public issue beyond one-year
+notes, but continues to pay her bills in gold and has the exchanges all
+in her favor.  Money is flowing in, and not out.
+
+It was most marvelous to find in France, in the fifth month of the war,
+prompt payment, no distrust of the government paper issues, gold and
+paper circulating side by side, and no strain for gold as in Germany.
+
+Nevertheless, the war has been fought thus far for the most part on the
+paper issues of the Bank of France and with the gold reserve of that
+bank undiminished.
+
+This is most remarkable.
+
+The first reason I can assign for it is that the French soldier gets
+twenty-five centimes, or five cents a day, or one fifth the pay of an
+English soldier.  Kitchener's army is to-day costing far more than the
+entire French army.  French food is locally abundant and cheap,
+notwithstanding the _octroi_, or French local tax of one eighth.  The
+main need of the French from the outside is boots and horses.  The
+English in France are not taxing French resources at all.  All their
+food-supplies, including the hay for their horses, come from England.
+
+The English troops are also well supplied with money from home.
+Outside the regular Tommy Atkins, the volunteers and territorials
+coming into France have abundant money.  They are the men from the
+cities and from the wealthiest families in the country life of England.
+There are more than 300,000 of them on French soil, and as they come
+and go in France, they are spending not less than four shillings a day
+each, or nearly four times their wages.  This makes a daily expenditure
+of 60,000 pounds sterling in France, and calling for exchange.  Hence
+the English pound has been at the lowest price in France on record,
+24.95 and sometimes 24.90.
+
+There is also the additional reason of higher insurance rates for the
+transportation of money across the Channel,--a channel infested with
+mines and submarines.  It is no uncommon thing for boats crossing the
+Channel to sight floating mines, and the wonder is that disasters
+therefrom have been so few.
+
+The third reason is that France has very large investments and credit
+resources outside, and can still summon money from abroad.
+
+You see more English than French soldiers in the life of Paris.  Their
+khaki uniforms are as conspicuous there as in London.
+
+The character of the early enlistments for the front in London is
+illustrated by the following story.  An officer entered a restaurant
+where a group of English soldiers in khaki uniforms were enjoying their
+cigarettes and pipes.  The officer threw some shillings on the table
+and called, "Waiter, give these men some beer."
+
+And a khaki uniform snapped forth a sovereign on the same table, and
+cried, "Waiter, give this officer some champagne."
+
+Bank statements are queer contraptions nowadays.  While the United
+States, with less gold in the country and less reserve in the banks
+than formerly, is showing the most enormous surplus--and a legitimate
+and better-protected surplus by reason of the new bank act--and the
+Bank of England is counting $100,000,000 of gold in Canada as a London
+bank reserve, and Russia has counted, as gold in her reserve, money on
+deposit which has been loaned out on time; while Belgium is doing a
+banking business from an English base, and Germany is inviting gold
+from the jewelry of her inhabitants and boasting her gold strength, the
+Bank of France refuses to publish any statement, makes no boast, but
+holds more gold than ever before in her history.
+
+Only a few weeks before the war was her metal base put above
+$800,000,000.  Then she suspended official statements until one was
+made to the government December 10, and this showed $880,000,000 metal
+base, or 4,500,000,000 francs.  Upon this her note issue, which was
+formerly 5,800,000,000 has been expanded to nearly 10,000,000,000.  She
+is authorized to issue up to 12,000,000,000 francs in paper.
+
+From this metallic base she increased her bills receivable by
+3,000,000,000 francs, or about the same amount that the Bank of England
+discounted in pre-moratorium bills under the backing of the government.
+Each country took on $600,000,000 of mercantile credits, and both
+countries are now finding this item receding.  In France the mercantile
+credits have been considerably reduced--the increase reduced nearly a
+half--because the men are at the front and business is not calling for
+the credits formerly in use.
+
+The Bank of France also promptly advanced 8,000,000,000 francs or
+$400,000,000 to the government.
+
+In the last few weeks of 1914 the finances of Russia, France, and
+Belgium became interlaced with those of England, and gold credits for
+the Allies' supplies were established around the world, shipments from
+North America going both east and west into the European war.
+Government credit with the Bank of France was then extended, but should
+not early in January have been more than $800,000,000.
+
+This is the main financial assistance on which France for five months
+conducted a successful defensive warfare, with 1,500,000 men at the
+front and nearly 3,000,000 men behind them.
+
+The next most remarkable financial feature in respect to France is that
+there has been no special financial legislation, in fact no financial
+legislation whatsoever, except the December budget vote to cover
+government expenses, including the war.  A moratorium was set up by
+decree, but authorization for this already existed under the general
+laws.  Under this moratorium payments were permitted at first of 5 per
+cent, then 25 per cent.  Later depositors were permitted to draw from
+the banks 40 per cent, and 40 per cent payments became the rule.  Then
+50 per cent for December, and in January, 1915, full payment to
+bank-depositors, although legally the moratorium stands to March 1,
+1915.
+
+Among other temporary devices in French finance was the issue by French
+chambers of commerce in the south of France of small pieces of
+paper,--as low as 50 centimes or 10 cents,--used only for circulation
+and change locally.
+
+Many banks closed their branches because they had not the clerks to man
+them.  Many bankers lost three fourths of their staff when the
+mobilization orders were issued, and all over Paris the banks are
+closed from twelve to two because of the limitations of the staff.
+When the Crédit Lyonnais reopened its branch in the Champs Élysées a
+few weeks ago it was manned by women clerks.
+
+The government loan issued in the summer of 1914 met less than half of
+the floating indebtedness and 1914 ordinary deficit.  The balance as
+maturing has been merged into the national-defense loan, which is only
+short-term financing.  On the 10th of December there were 1,000,000,000
+francs of the new national-defense loan outstanding, but it was being
+subscribed for all over France daily.  This national-defense loan
+consists of three, six, nine, and twelve months' government bills
+bearing 5 per cent interest.  I figured that the amount issued December
+10 was for the most part used to provide for the maturing floating
+indebtedness, and for the deficit on the government budget aside from
+the expense of the present war.
+
+As the government is advancing money to Servia and to Belgium, the loan
+of 20,000,000 pounds, or $100,000,000, from England can be readily
+accounted for.
+
+There were loans from the big banks of France for the government at the
+opening of the war, but these loans I was assured were all merged in
+the 5 per cent national-defense loans, which have not exceeding one
+year to run.
+
+On these national-defense loans the cautious Bank of France will
+advance in limited amounts 80 per cent of the face value, but only
+where the government loan matures within three months.
+
+The great principle of the Bank of France is to keep liquid.  Its
+assets must always be mobile.
+
+There is only one point at which French finance should be criticized,
+and as we cannot know all the details of the stress of the military
+position when Paris was abandoned, her mobilizing of the reserves still
+in disorganization, and her transportation awry, we may not be in a
+position to level any just criticism.
+
+But it must be set down in the interest of true report that the French
+credit was at one time endangered by the way the treasury, or the
+military authorities, handled the government credit in payment for
+war-supplies.
+
+Instead of going to the bankers and making its financial arrangements,
+paying the war-supply contractors, the French government made many
+contracts under which it paid contractors, and purveyors, with the 6
+per cent national-defense notes of the government, running three, six,
+nine, and twelve months.
+
+As the contractors were making 15 per cent and 20 per cent on their
+mercantile overturn, they could afford to discount 5 per cent and more
+in the sale of the government notes, and while the government was
+passing out these notes at par to the patriotic subscribers, the
+contractors were negotiating liberal discounts to bankers and others.
+
+Nevertheless, the stupendous fact remains that France, caught in a
+European war most unaware, with impaired budget and a floating
+indebtedness, has carried the greatest war of her history for six
+months without a long-term national loan and by the issue of less than
+$200,000,000 5 per cent short-term notes for not exceeding one year,
+and credits for less than $800,000,000 from the Bank of France; has
+maintained her gold basis unimpaired; and has kept the international
+exchanges steadily in her favor; and all this without any special
+financial legislation.
+
+Nor could I find any evidence of a French disposition to sell the
+American copper shares, railroad bonds, or industrial shares into which
+the French have been putting some money of late years.  But I did learn
+that short-term American railroad notes may this year be renewed abroad
+only in part.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER VIII
+
+THE BELGIAN SACRIFICE
+
+No Migration from Belgium--Germany's War Tax
+Levies--Irreconcilable--The Army--No Neutrality over Belgium.
+
+
+Before Germany launched her thunderbolts of war, Belgium had an
+industrious, frugal, hard-working, saving population of nearly
+8,000,000 people.  Of these, 450,000 are now refugees in Holland, where
+the magnanimous Dutch are providing for them with no outside
+assistance.  Queen Wilhelmina declares, "These are our guests and we
+will care for them."  Nearly 30,000 Belgian troops have also been
+interned in Holland.  It was expected that they might leak out, but the
+Dutch are stern in their present position of neutrality.  They
+understand their very existence depends upon it.  Some of the interned
+warriors attempted to escape, and six were shot by the Dutch.  Nor will
+they permit contraband articles of war to go through their country.
+While the Dutch may sell their own supplies as they please, all imports
+of rubber, copper, or petroleum must be accounted for, and their
+reëxport to Germany is forbidden.
+
+Germany also holds 30,000 Belgian soldiers as prisoners.  England took
+18,000 severely wounded Belgian soldiers into her hospitals, and 80,000
+refugees are being there cared for largely by private enterprise.  The
+losses by the war are difficult of estimation.  But at the present time
+there are 7,000,000 people in Belgium, most of whom must be fed by the
+outside world.
+
+Belgium is the one nation from which the people have never migrated.
+Beyond war there is only one power that can move the Belgians from
+their soil, and that is the influence of the Church.
+
+Representatives of American railroad and industrial interests are in
+Europe endeavoring to induce emigration from Belgium to the United
+States, but it is doubtful if these efforts will meet with any success.
+There are in the United States to-day only two Belgian settlements, one
+of about 1000 people in Montana and one of about 1500 in western New
+York.  The Belgian loves his land and sits by his home though it be in
+ruins.  The history of the land of the Belgians shows that, as the
+cockpit of Europe, it was the battle-ground of centuries; yet her
+people are more immobile than those of any other country in Europe.
+Earthquakes do not make sunny Italy or golden California less
+attractive to their inhabitants.
+
+About $20,000,000 (more than 10 per cent of this came from Belgian
+people) has been raised to feed starving Belgians, and $20,000,000 more
+should be forthcoming.
+
+The English war office objected at first to the American proposals for
+food supplies to the little country.  It was held to be the duty of the
+invading Germans to feed the population of the conquered country, as
+the Germans had appropriated large stores of supplies that were in
+Belgium, notably at Antwerp.
+
+England finally assented to the proposal, as well she might, for
+Belgium would starve without food from the outside, irrespective of war
+losses.  In normal times, she imports 240,000 tons of food every month.
+She also imports most of her raw supplies for manufacturing.  Belgium
+is, therefore, to-day without food, or raw materials for her
+industries, and probably without outlet had her industries the ability
+to produce.  Although about fifty ships are bringing food to Belgium,
+they are of small capacity and in the aggregate represent less than one
+month's supply.  In the early part of December about 80,000 tons of
+food were going through the American committee by permission of Germany
+and England.  The people have been put on one-third rations.  Every
+inhabitant of Belgium is allowed a pint of soup a day and about as much
+coarse brown bread as would make one American loaf.
+
+The German idea of responsibility and power is that of force.  They
+have ordered the people of Belgium to love them, coöperate with them,
+and go about their business.  But the Belgians refuse to love the
+Germans, refuse to coöperate with them and will not resume their work
+for the Germans to appropriate the results.  The people of Antwerp were
+invited to come back from Holland and it was proclaimed that there
+would be no indemnity levied, yet a huge one came down upon the city.
+The Germans levied a war tax of 50,000,000 francs on Brussels, and
+Rothschild and Solvay are not permitted to leave the city.
+
+Payment on the tax was agreed to, and then the Germans demanded
+500,000,000 francs from the entire province of Brabant, which includes
+Louvain as well as Brussels.  The inhabitants said it was impossible
+and the demand was reduced to 375,000,000 francs.  The inference must
+be that the latter levy covers a term of years.
+
+The Germans are provoked that the bank money got out of Belgium.  The
+Bank of Belgium sent its gold reserve to the Bank of England,
+600,000,000 francs, and Germany demanded that this reserve be
+transferred from England to a neutral country; but, of course, England
+refused.  There are some banks still doing business in Belgium, but the
+Belgians reject the German money except when obliged to take it.
+
+The Belgian stores remain closed for the major part, and the Germans
+threaten that unless the Belgians reopen and proceed with business they
+will confiscate the stores and sell them to Germans who will do
+business.  The people of Antwerp must be in bed by 9 o'clock.  The
+people of Liége are ordered to retire at 7 P.M.  No Belgian is
+permitted the use of a telephone, the entire system having been
+appropriated by the military authorities.
+
+The Germans have decreed German time, which is one hour different from
+that of London, but the Belgian people refuse to set over their watches
+and clocks.  The Belgian railroad system is different from that of the
+Germans,--left-handed tracks and a different system of signalling.  The
+Belgians refuse to do the bidding of the Germans and operate the
+railroads.  The Germans must move the trains themselves.
+
+The Germans do not hate the Belgians.  They simply pity them, that they
+were so shortsighted as not to accept German gold for right of passage
+through the country.  The German hate is reserved entirely for the
+English above all people on the surface of the globe.  In Belgium 200
+marks reward is offered for the capture of any Englishman found in that
+domain.
+
+The latest response to Bernhardi's book, "England the Vassal of
+Germany," is Kipling's poem in the King Albert book issued December 16
+to augment the Belgian Relief Fund.  I clip two verses:--
+
+  They traded with the careless earth,
+    And good return it gave;
+  They plotted by their neighbor's hearth
+    The means to make him slave.
+
+  When all was readied to their hand
+    They loosed their hidden sword
+  And utterly laid waste a land
+    Their oath was pledged to guard.
+
+After the German Kaiser sounded the battle sentiment of Europe by
+sending the warship "Panther" to Agadir three years ago in violation of
+the treaty of Algeciras, it was intimated by the French and the English
+that Belgian neutrality might be in danger; also that the Lord and the
+Allies helped those who help themselves.
+
+Therefore, a bill was introduced in Belgium's Capital providing for the
+raising of an army of 600,000 men where before were 46,000 and a war
+footing of 147,000.  The leader of the Catholic party opposed the
+programme, declaring that Belgian neutrality was guaranteed by Germany,
+France, and England.  A compromise was effected by which an army of
+less than half this number was authorized.
+
+When on Sunday evening, August 2d, at 7 P.M., the German ultimatum was
+handed to Belgium, she was given twelve hours or until morning to
+declare whether or not the country would be surrendered to the free
+passage of the German war battalions.  Belgium had then an army of
+200,000 men; 60,000 volunteers sprang to arms, and that 260,000 was the
+maximum Belgian army that attempted to withstand the millions of
+Germany's armed forces.  Even these were not effectively placed.  The
+30,000 men at the frontier were not sufficient to permit of any
+effective sorties to protect the approaches to the Liége
+fortifications.  It was a forlorn hope from a military standpoint, but
+for three weeks the Belgians with shrinking forces held in check the
+war power of Germany.  Every week help was expected from the Allies,
+but no help came, for no country in Europe outside of Germany and
+Austria had any expectation of war.
+
+Down to the ground and their graves fought the plucky little Belgians,
+until they numbered, not 260,000, but nearer 60,000.  After every
+able-bodied man in Belgium was demanded by King Albert, the ranks of
+the Belgians began to swell, and, with able-bodied refugees returned
+from England, there are now about 120,000 men in the ten divisions of
+the Belgian army.
+
+But England carries, as she ought, the financial burden.  She feeds,
+clothes, and equips the Belgians and furnishes the money-supply.  The
+Germans still strive, not so much against the Allies as against the
+English in Belgium.  Here the fighting is fiercest, casualties are
+greatest, and here the reinforcements on both sides are the greatest
+per mile of line.
+
+Meanwhile the more than a million Germans in Belgium have trenched
+across the whole country, rebuilt the forts at Namur, Liége, Antwerp,
+and other places, and are digging themselves into the ground doggedly
+and determinedly, and with as great precision and more science than the
+Allies.  The German trenches are rather better made and the machinery
+for trenching has been, of course, better prepared by the Germans.
+
+The great surprise of the war was the demonstration in Belgium that
+forts costing millions, in defense of cities, are absolutely useless
+against the big German shells.  The defense at Liége was prolonged
+because the Germans could not at first find the exact location of the
+central defense.  Finally a German approached bearing a large white
+flag of truce.  Belgian orders were given to receive him.  The German,
+under his flag of truce, signalled the desired information and then
+fell.  Soon after, fell the fort.  The Germans had found the desired
+range, and shot.  At Antwerp a single shell was able to put an entire
+fortress out of business.
+
+It is the Landwehr and the older men that have been called by Germany
+to do duty in Belgium, while the younger troops are sent back and forth
+between the eastern and western frontier defences.
+
+An American who has lately been all through Belgium, representing both
+commercial interests and charity work, tells me;--
+
+"I left America absolutely neutral.  I was not a student of the war or
+of the cause of the war.  What I saw in Belgium convinced me that the
+Allies must win and will win.  I am no longer neutral.  What I saw in
+Belgium of the wanton destruction of villages, towns, and cities has
+prejudiced me as no argument could have done.  The Allies' losses will
+begin when they take the offensive against the German works which are
+now being constructed.  Soon England will have 600,000 more men on the
+Continent and there will be more doing.
+
+"The losses of the Germans have been two or three times the losses of
+the Allies in the Belgian trenches, because the Germans have been the
+attacking parties.  If the Allies become the attacking parties they
+will have to sustain the heavy losses.  But I cannot see it otherwise
+than that the Allies must win.  The crime against Belgium is the
+greatest crime since Calvary, and it has set the whole world against
+Germany.
+
+"It is not only a crime, but it was a military error, for to-day
+Germany has 600 miles of front to defend, 300 east and 300 west, and
+her losses have been enormous.  At Liége 7000 Germans went down in a
+single day's fighting.  One man I met assisted to bury 500 Germans in
+front of a single trench.
+
+"I do not believe Brussels is mined; but if ever the Germans got into
+Paris they would destroy the whole city before they left.
+
+"I shudder to think what the Germans will suffer at the hands of the
+Belgians when once the rout of the Germans has been begun by the
+Allies.  The Belgians are unreconciled, and if they ever get weapons in
+their hands--well, I will not predict, I will just tell you one fact: I
+traveled the length and breadth of the land, saw the women and the
+children sitting by their ruined hearthstones, but I never saw a tear
+on the cheek of a Belgian."
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER IX
+
+RUSSIA AND THE RUSSIANS
+
+Russian Reforms--A United Russia--Russian Armaments--The Greatest
+Future--Two Water Outlets--The Slav Invasion Bugaboo.
+
+
+Russia also is likely to bring forth some notable men who have not
+previously been heard of before the world.  General Evanoff is the idol
+of the Russian army.  He is the strategist who plans the movements
+against Austria and Germany in the East, who surrounds Przemysl and
+says, "Now, we can take it when we please, but we will not sacrifice
+Russian troops to take it now; Cracow is more important.  Lodz is not
+important from a military standpoint.  We will surround it later."
+
+Evanoff orders his men to keep out of the valleys and engage the
+Germans in the open plain, where their own numbers will count in
+action; for in the valleys the German big guns have the advantage.
+
+Russia has been at work steadily since the Japanese war reforming her
+army within and without.  More than one third of her officers were
+dismissed after that war.  The Russian officials now say that the
+Japanese war was to Russia most providential.  It showed the lines of
+Russian weakness, inefficiency, and graft, which could flourish at a
+distance from St. Petersburg but became exposed when war put the
+Russian organization to the test.  Steadily every year Russia has been
+systematically and thoroughly routing out graft and inefficiency.  When
+Russia starts to do a thing she does it thoroughly.
+
+It was because Russia was rebuilding, reorganizing, and was indulging
+in criticism and putting its mind on the weak spots, that Russian
+confidential papers stolen in the interest of Germany misled both
+Berlin and Vienna as to the possibility of Russia going to war to
+defend Servia in the year 1914.
+
+War has united Russia as never before.  The Czar now moves about
+unattended, and the country is a unit behind him and the war and
+unitedly against the Germans.  From Warsaw to Siberia the German agents
+and merchants have been arrested and impounded.  Nobody in Germany can
+yet realize how this war has destroyed her commercial relations and
+commercial organizations throughout the world.  Everywhere German
+people are subjects of suspicion.  You will even hear in all
+seriousness that the Kaiser had an army of 150,000 reservists in the
+United States with a partial equipment of arms ready to attack Canada;
+and I have been told by supply agencies that these arms are now offered
+for sale, as the uselessness of any German movement on the American
+continent is apparent.
+
+How far Germany is unable to measure the spirit of the English-speaking
+people is shown by the fact that she cannot understand why the United
+States does not take this opportunity to possess Canada.
+
+I heard of a retired German-American of wealth, residing in Germany,
+who was actually invited to go to America to stir up a raid on Canada.
+Of course he obediently returned to the United States, and then he sat
+down to wonder how he could effectively report back the foolishness of
+such an idea without offense to Berlin.
+
+Russia has been perfecting her military organization for ten years.
+The expansion was to come in the next two years.  At the opening of the
+war she had only 2,500,000 available troops.  For two years she has
+been building factories to manufacture ammunition and arms, and these
+are now being rushed to completion.  People who have offered her
+contracts for arms and munitions have been told that Russian factories
+shortly to be completed will make their weapons more quickly than they
+can now be ordered and received from other countries.
+
+With arms and equipment Russia can draw 17,000,000 men to her
+German-Austrian frontier just as readily as Germany can draw 7,000,000
+men to both her frontiers.  In both calculations only one in ten of the
+population is counted upon for service.
+
+The story is told of a Russian who was asked in London why he did not
+return for military duty.  He replied, "Oh, I belong to the 14th
+million, and it will be some time before the 18th million is called
+out."
+
+Russia has the greatest future of any country in Europe.  She has the
+largest unturned arable soil of any country in the world.  Russia in
+Europe is a great agricultural plain.  To the east are her rich
+oil-fields steadily expanding north in the Ural Mountains, and east
+lies Siberia, endowed by nature as one of the richest countries in the
+world, an area in which you could deposit the United States.  From the
+Siberian railroad other railroads are now projected; mineral wealth is
+being uncovered; and English and French capital and American engineers
+will in the future work wonders with the country.
+
+What Russia has long sought is an outlet to the ocean.  This war is
+likely to give her benefits which she could never have asked and could
+only have fought for.  Germany, defeated, will lose the control or
+monopoly of the Kiel Canal, and possibly the country around it which
+she took from Denmark.  The Kiel Canal under international control will
+extend the Baltic Sea of the Russians and the Scandinavians most
+directly to the North Sea and the English Channel.
+
+To the south Russia will have something to say in Asia Minor and much
+to say concerning Constantinople.  Certainly her influence in the
+Balkan States and on the Bosphorus will be as great as she could
+desire.  As long as the Turks remained loyal to England, Great Britain
+was bound to maintain their integrity and hold upon Constantinople and
+the Bosphorus.  With the passing of the Turk Constantinople is in the
+hands of the Allies when they are victorious.  Its final disposition is
+not yet clear, but the English people can see compensation in Egypt,
+Asia Minor, and Persia for any necessary Russian control of Byzantium.
+
+While seeking one direct outlet by waterway, Russia may get two with
+the suicide of Germany and the destruction of her latest ally, the
+Mohammedan Turk.
+
+Russia is beginning to be better understood throughout the British
+Empire and the world.  The fear of an invasion of Western Europe by the
+Slav races is a bugaboo set afloat by Germany, who also propagates the
+bugaboo of a Japanese invasion of North America.
+
+Russia is not a competing nation.  She needs the capital and the brains
+of the outside world for her development, and in time she will offer
+the greatest field for world coöperation.
+
+Japan wants to coöperate with Russia, and, indeed, with all European
+civilization.  After the fall of Kiao-Chau she sent arms to Russia, and
+she stands ready to throw legions into the European field in defense of
+her English ally.  Influential people in England are strongly urging
+the military authorities to permit the little Japs to join in.
+
+Russia will keep faith with the Poles and the Jews and set up an
+autonomous Poland.  But there is a strong resentment in Russia to-day
+because the Polish Jews misled the Russian army in the marshy grounds
+of East Prussia in the early campaigns of the war.
+
+Russian military plans had to be changed and the field of war set
+farther south.  Here Russia hopes to drive the five million people of
+Silesia back toward Berlin.  This will awaken the Junkers of East
+Prussia and bring home to the people of Germany what the Prussian
+military machine really invites when it attempts a world-conquest.
+
+Russia lacks military railroads and scientific means of communication.
+But just as America was surprised ten years ago to find the Japs, as
+the ally of England, giving, as the English predicted, "a good account
+of themselves," so the Russians as the allies of Great Britain may be
+found giving a very good account of themselves in this war.  Russia is
+certainly unconquerable from either the Austrian or the German
+standpoint, and the smashing of Austria between Russia, Roumania,
+Servia, and Italy may be the real military campaign of this most
+Audacious War.
+
+American engineers and diplomats familiar with Russia declare that,
+properly led, the Russian soldier is the greatest fighter in the world;
+and he is getting that leadership now.
+
+The Russians expect the war will be over before next autumn, but
+Kitchener does not plan to end it then.  He means to do this job
+thoroughly, and his plans are most comprehensive.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER X
+
+THE ENGLISH POSITION
+
+A Quiet London--The Call to Arms--No Mourning--The Zeppelin
+Scare--German Spies--The German Landing--Kultur War Indemnities.
+
+
+It is worth a winter trip across the Atlantic to stand with a London
+audience and hear it respond to the call, "Are we downhearted?" with a
+thunderous "NO!"
+
+It is then you first realize that the British Empire is at war; and
+what that war means; and that that Empire has piped to its defense a
+free people inhabiting one fifth of the territory of the globe.
+
+The British Empire has war upon its hands a major part of the time.  It
+may be in the Soudan; it may be in South Africa.  From some quarter of
+the globe war is almost always before the Empire.  But a war summoning
+the whole British Empire to arms on land and sea,--that has not been
+dreamed of for a hundred years.
+
+You expect to find in London an armed camp, the flags flying, the drums
+beating, the troops marching; an excited people discussing causes and
+effects of the military and naval programmes; military encampments with
+white tents over the plains.  But you find nothing of the sort.  If you
+attempt to motor in the country and figure on reaching a certain place
+in two hours, you may find it takes you four, as you are very likely to
+run into troops, companies, regiments, and armies in training, but
+mostly without arms and only partially uniformed.  They are trudging
+the highways and the lanes of England from 5.30 A.M. until dusk,--rain
+or shine.  Here is Kitchener's army being put into condition, with no
+fuss, feathers, or trumpet beats.  The army is "rolling up" and
+"hardening up."  But not on the tented campus.  It is quartered in the
+towns and villages all over England, and board and lodging is regularly
+paid by the government.
+
+There are no noticeable drum beats over England; no displays of
+bunting.  Monuments, public buildings, and conspicuous corners, and,
+most conspicuous of all, the glass fronts of the taxi-cabs, bear signs
+calling the men of England to arms:--
+
+"Fall in--Join the Army at once."
+
+"Your King and Country need you.  England expects that every man this
+day will do his duty."
+
+"Enlist for the duration of the War."
+
+"Enlist for three years."
+
+"You are needed to fight for Honor and the Country's defense."
+
+"No price can be too high when Honor and Freedom are at stake."
+
+"Who dies if England lives?"
+
+"He gives twice who gives quickly--join at once."
+
+"'More men and still more until the enemy is crushed.'--Lord Kitchener."
+
+And many more of the same tenor.  Beyond these you will see little
+evidence in the London streets of an empire at war.  Hotels are largely
+empty; managers very polite; restaurants must close at 10. P.M.; no
+after-theater supper at the hotels unless you are a guest.  Men in
+khaki uniforms are more conspicuous; and bandaged heads, slung arms,
+and legs assisted by crutches are more noticeable than formerly.
+
+The searchlights flash above the city; the street lights are shaded
+overhead in foolish fancy as a protection from aeroplanes or
+dirigibles.  Curtains are closely drawn by police orders, in the houses
+and railway trains.
+
+Yet one of the airmen who had been over London at night told me that
+the city was just as conspicuous as though it were wide open in
+illumination.  Indeed, there is a general call among the Londoners for
+the police to let up and permit electric signs, lighted windows, and
+more light in the streets.  But the only answer that came early in
+December was orders to turn down the lights further!
+
+In Paris they turned on the lights, illuminated the streets, closed up
+the museums and galleries, buried their art and sent the Venus de Milo
+on a walk to some storage vault along with the banks' reserve gold.
+London's museums and picture galleries are wide open, and the endeavor
+to protect the streets from Germans peering down from above looks
+childish.  The great strategy of the Germans consists of talking across
+the Channel about their plans for raiding England.  I suspect that the
+English military authorities do not object.  It encourages enlistment.
+When enlistment gets dull, the Germans stimulate it with some shells
+thrown on the English coast.
+
+There are only two or three new plays in London this season; the great
+war-plays and dramas, and indeed the literature of this war, have yet
+to be written.  Nearly all the new presentations for which London is so
+famous were set back on the shelf when the business of war started.
+Most of the theater programs are revivals of old favorites, and a few
+of the theaters are still closed.  All that are open begin promptly at
+8 P.M.  Five hundred English actors have gone to the front.
+
+You have to make the circuit to find the heart of England at war, but
+you find it--horse, foot, and dragoons; men, women, and children.  "Are
+we downhearted?" answered by a thunderous "No!"  Then again silence,
+and turning down of the lights, and the steady work! work! work!
+
+"Have you a bed here?" said Kitchener when he entered the War Office.
+"Never heard of such a thing here," was the response.
+
+"Get one," said Kitchener; "I have no time for clubs and hotels."
+
+Not only Kitchener but the whole staff camped down in the office,
+working days, nights, and Sundays, until Lady ---- turned over her
+house nearby to Kitchener and his staff.
+
+"Where is ----?" I asked of his next-door neighbor.  The response was,
+"Oh, he is at the War Office, and gets a Sunday home with his family
+about once in six weeks."  That family was not fifteen miles from
+London.
+
+When a citizen has been suddenly notified that where he could formerly
+get a train for home every fifteen minutes, the railroad has been taken
+for military service, and he must get his supper in town, there is not
+the slightest word of complaint.  He only wishes he could contribute
+more to the Empire.
+
+I spoke with Lord K., of B---- & Co., concerning the loss of his eldest
+son, as I had known Lord K. for many years.  The manner, the gesture,
+the speech, in response, were all one, and brief; just an indication of
+sacrifice that had to be made for the Empire; and that sacrifice had
+only just begun; deaths in the family just honorable incidents in the
+life of the Empire.
+
+You see crutches and broken heads in London, but you will see no
+mourning.
+
+"Yes," said Lord C. to me, "the average income tax in England is now
+doubled until it is one eighth, or about 12 1/2 per cent, but my
+friends in the banking world have to pay an increasing supertax.  I
+know many who must now give one quarter of their income to the
+government.  They not only do it gladly, but expect it will be a half
+next year, and they will contribute that just as gladly."
+
+From the top to the bottom in the Empire, all that is asked at the
+present time is a protected food and clothing supply, and everything
+else can go into "the cauldron of war."
+
+"Did you ever see anything like it?" said an American banker in London
+to me.  "Are n't these people wonderful?  Did you ever see such
+resolution, such steady work, such sacrifices, such unity of empire?"
+
+It was indeed worth a winter's trip across the ocean to see it.
+
+Although the newspapers complained of the censorship, there was only
+one general complaint from the people in the British press.  They
+wanted to know what the regulations were, or were to be, concerning
+self-defense when the Germans arrive in the country.  Should a citizen
+without uniform take up arms against the invaders?  Had he a right
+individually to shoot a German invader?  Was the old rule that an
+Englishman's home is his castle, and that he has the right to defend
+it, now superseded by any rules of international warfare?
+
+Some independent people of note were declaiming in the public prints
+that any German invader of England was a thief and a robber and that
+any weapons might be used to attack the invaders; and that there was no
+rule of warfare that could prevent an Englishman defending his home by
+any weapons against any foreign invaders.
+
+Nevertheless the spirit of the people was, even under invasion, to
+respect law and order and rules of warfare, and be guided by the
+government as to all forms of individual or collective defenses.  They
+simply wanted the rules promulgated.
+
+The English are reconciled to Zeppelin raids from Germany, and rather
+expect them.  But there is yet no unanimity in preparation or action.
+The Rothschilds have put four feet of sand on the roof of their
+building, but the amount of their gold in store must be incomparably
+less than that in the Bank of England, where no precautions are visible.
+
+Trenches by the beaches and barricades by the highways are noticeable
+along the entire south and east coasts of England, but they are without
+stores or equipment.  You run across these trenches in the moonlight as
+you journey about the country and for the moment you wonder for what
+purpose somebody dug those long ditches by the shore, and what the
+trench or irrigation scheme is.  Your answer comes when you run
+straight into a timber barricade across the highway nearby.  Then you
+look down the coast and see flashing searchlights, note the lights of
+steamers passing up and down the coast, and reflect that there is no
+universal law in war.  The Channel steamers are carrying lights in the
+war area, but the North Atlantic steamers still cross the ocean without
+showing even port or starboard lights.  The street cars moving in the
+English coast cities must, of course, be lighted and the streets must
+have some illuminant; but the railroad carriages, hotels, and private
+houses must draw their curtains.  Yet railroad terminals and piers must
+have their lights, and harbors must have their searchlights.  General
+service lights must be ablaze, but individual glimmers must be
+curtained.  It reminds one of Cowper, the English poet, who, in the
+same kennel, cut a big hole for his big dog and a little hole for the
+pup.
+
+The most talked-of war subject in England is the German spy system.  It
+is estimated there were between 30,000 and 40,000 German spies, and
+many times this number of German reservists, in England at the outbreak
+of the war.  For years England has laughed over German theoretical
+discussions of how best to invade England, and German studies of
+English coast lines and country resources.
+
+I heard years ago of a young Englishman who disputed in Berlin the
+war-office plans of his father's estate.  He declared that he thought
+he ought to know the land where he was born and brought up as a boy,
+and that there were only two springs of water thereon, instead of
+three.  The German general staff said their maps of England were
+correct and were not based on English authority.  The young man found
+on his return to England that the German maps were correct and that his
+father's estate had three springs whence men and horses could be
+watered, although his family had never noted the existence of a third.
+
+Two years ago some friends of mine were playing tennis in an English
+village and inquired the occupation of two young Germans, who seemed to
+be good tennis-players, but without family relations or settled
+business.
+
+The response of the hostess was: "Oh, they are just two German spies of
+good education and charming manner looking over the country here, and
+we find them very useful in making up our tennis tournaments."  It was
+looked upon as just a part of the German map-making plans, and England
+was an open book for anybody to map.  Baedeker published the
+guide-books of the world: why should n't the Germans make all the maps
+of the world,--especially if German map-making were cheaper than
+English map-making?
+
+A banker friend of mine found two young Germans in his village, with no
+other occupation than motoring the country over and making notes and
+sketches of cross-roads, railroad junction-points, important buildings,
+bridges, etc.  He thought the authorities ought to know what was going
+on, but received a polite invitation from the local police to mind his
+own business.  When once he lost his way on a motor-car trip, and ran
+across these fellows, he was very glad to get the right directions for
+the shortest way home.  They knew more about the roads of that country
+than did the people who were born there.
+
+About 20,000 German spies and reservists are in detention camps on the
+west coast, and on the islands.  Even the German prisoners are kept
+away from the east coast, where it is expected the Germans may
+eventually struggle for their landing.
+
+I have not the slightest confidence in any invasion of England by
+Germany, but I do not understand why German Zeppelins do not move in
+the darkness over the British Isles and drop a few bombs about the
+country at important places.  It may be that the German Emperor is
+right in his calculation that such action would do very little damage,
+and would strengthen tremendously the enlistments and war-expansion
+plans of the English.
+
+When West Hartlepool, Whitby, and Scarborough were bombarded by the
+German warships on the morning of December 16, the English excitement
+concerning it was only a small part of what an American would have
+expected.  Not far from this bombarded coast is a summer resort town,
+where for many years a legend has existed that when in some future age
+England decayed and Germany came in, this would be the first
+landing-point.
+
+An Englishman two or three years ago took it upon himself to find out
+how far this legend might have its base in any near invasion.  He
+looked up the record and found that all the leading summer hotels and
+strategic points were in the hands of Germans.  Then one day he quickly
+addressed his German waiter in his native tongue, demanding to know
+where his post was in that town in the event of hostilities.  Promptly
+the German replied, "Down at the schoolhouse!"  Further investigation
+showed that every reservist had his allotted place before and after the
+landing, and his place in the civic organization to follow.  The
+Germans had also compiled lists of the people of property in that
+vicinity and exactly the character and amount of resources that could
+be commandeered from them.
+
+If the Germans were free to map England, why should they not be free to
+map all its resources, individually as well as collectively?
+
+I know a building in the heart of the London financial district that
+carries on its roof a Zeppelin-destroyer gun.  A few days before I was
+last in this building a fine-looking fellow in khaki uniform entered in
+haste and asked the janitor to show him to the roof that he might
+quickly inspect that gun and see that everything was in order, as raids
+might be expected at any moment.  Of course, he was taken to the roof,
+and his inspection quickly completed.  Ten minutes later the London
+police were there to inquire for a man in khaki uniform.
+
+The English officer said, "Very singular, we are ten minutes behind
+that fellow everywhere.  He is the cleverest of all the German spies,
+and we are not able to catch him!"
+
+If that spy had been caught in his English uniform inspecting English
+defenses, would not everything have been kept quiet in the endeavor to
+pick up the lines of his foreign communications?
+
+In writing home from England, even to my family, toward the close of
+1914, I thought it just as well to be brief and not too definite with
+any information.  I had seen some of the censorship regulations and
+envelopes resealed with a paper bearing heavy black letters, "Opened by
+censor," with the number of the censor, showing that there are more
+than one hundred people engaged in this work; and also directions from
+the censorship that "responses to this inquiry must be submitted,"
+etc., etc.
+
+Nobody could believe until this war broke out and there descended upon
+peaceful Belgium not only armies and demands for their shelter,
+maintenance and food, and drink, but also huge demands for financial
+indemnification--war tax levies upon cities, towns, and provinces, with
+individuals held as hostages for their payment--that German war plans
+meant the looting, not only of nations and states, but of individual
+fortunes and properties.
+
+It now seems that the march to Paris through Belgium and the imposition
+of a huge redemption tax upon Paris and France were but the
+preliminaries to larger demands upon London and England.
+
+Indeed, judged by the demands upon Belgium, the German plans
+contemplated the transfer of the wealth of France and the British
+Empire to Germany; and such enslavement of these peoples as would make
+Germany rich, powerful and triumphant for many generations, if not
+forever, over the whole habitable globe.  The German minister at
+Washington sounded a true German note when he asked who should question
+the right of Germany to take Canada and the British possessions in
+North America.  Were they not at war, and if Germany were able, should
+she not possess them?
+
+It had been understood before this war that countries were invaded
+under ideas of national defense.  But possession of countries for the
+absorption of their wealth and the enslavement of their people, to work
+thereafter for the victors, was believed a barbarism from which this
+world had long ago emerged in the struggle for the freedom of the
+individual.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XI
+
+ENGLISH WAR FORCES
+
+The Men at the Front--The Recruiting--English Losses--Horses and
+Ships--War Supplies--Barring the Germans.
+
+
+I really admire the English censorship and the manner in which it can
+withhold information from the English people, and I see the usefulness
+of much of the withholdings.  You are some days in England before you
+realize that there are now no weather reports--not even for Channel
+crossings.  Nobody really cared for them in London.  Everybody there
+knew what the weather was, and nobody could tell what it was to be.  If
+reports were printed, they would fool only the German Zeppelins; but
+cable reports might be quite another thing.  So you can't cable your
+family: "Weather fine, come over."
+
+Of course Germany should not be allowed to know the English forces,
+their exact number and distribution.  I was told over and over again in
+good newspaper quarters in London that the English had only 100,000 men
+at the front, and did not propose to have any more until Kitchener led
+his army of a million men or more to the Continent next spring.
+
+I, of course, said nothing, but I knew a great deal better, both from
+War-Office sources and from contact with the English officers in France.
+
+It would not be right, although information was not given me in
+confidence, to attempt to name the exact number and position of troops
+Kitchener had on the Continent toward the close of December.  But I may
+tell what anybody was free to pick up on French soil.  I asked an
+English officer of good rank how many men the English had at the front
+and he responded promptly 220,000 at the front, and 50,000 on the lines
+of communication.  He was right for that date in early December, but
+later more troops were sent over.  Indeed, they were quietly going and
+coming all the time across the Channel, and, notwithstanding losses,
+the number at the front was being steadily augmented.  There were also
+troops in training on French soil, and 550,000 in condition for
+shipment from England.
+
+Kitchener is one of the greatest reserve-supply men in the world.  He
+is a natural-born banker; he keeps his eye on his reserves fully as
+much as on his activities, and perhaps more so.
+
+When he called for 100,000 troops the British public became weary and
+demanded to know how long before he would get them.  This gave an
+impression throughout the world that English recruiting was very slow;
+but when forced to show down his hand, Kitchener had to admit that
+under the call for 100,000 men he had accepted many more and was still
+accepting.
+
+Then they raised the call to a million, and in December Kitchener had
+more than 1,000,000 men under that call, but I was particular to
+ascertain that he had not made a call for a second million.  It was all
+under the call for 1,000,000 men to arm.
+
+But I did learn from authoritative sources that a house-to-house
+canvass, and millions of circulars sent out, had received responses
+that showed the War Office where the number of recruits, or men in
+training, could be quickly put above 2,000,000 the moment there was
+need or room for them.
+
+When England sent her first expeditionary force of 100,000 men to the
+Continent there was no public report of how steadily it was augmented.
+The official announcement was simply that the line should not be
+diminished and that all losses should be made good.
+
+An American acquaintance of mine, whom I found in France fighting in
+the uniform of the English, had made the declaration from his quick
+perception of the situation at the outset that if before January 1 the
+English should have sent over only another 100,000 men, they would have
+only 100,000 left there at the end of the year.
+
+I found his estimate of losses correct.  The English casualties at the
+end of 1914 were over 100,000,--killed, wounded, prisoners, and
+missing,--or fully the number of the first Expeditionary Force.
+
+Yet every week and every month the forces of the English grew larger
+and never smaller.  The filling in of the gaps and the augmentation of
+the English forces and their maintenance, munitions, and supplies was
+but the smaller part of the work of the War Office.
+
+The great problem was to compass the situation as a worldwide war and
+summon and put into an effective fighting machine the resources of the
+Empire.
+
+"Not alone the men but the machinery," said Kitchener, "must win this
+war."
+
+England had to put into operation machinery, financial and diplomatic,
+machinery of men, guns, and transportation, belting the whole world and
+bringing the whole forward as a complete organization, yielding here
+and pressing forward there, but always firmly pressing to the one
+desired end--the crushing, crumpling and destroying of the war
+machinery of Germany.  At the beginning England could not turn out
+10,000 rifles a week; and a rifle can shoot well for only about 1000
+rounds.  Yet in December a single contractor in England was turning out
+40,000 a week, and every possible contractor there and elsewhere had
+his hands full.
+
+Kitchener must compass every detail from the rifle to the supply base;
+from the seasoned wood for that rifle right down to the number of
+troops he must have on the Continent when it comes to a settlement;
+for, says Kitchener, "You cannot draw unless you hold cards."
+
+The broad sweep of the English preparations may be indicated by this:
+that when war broke out England not only commandeered horses in every
+city, village, and highway of England, taking them from carriages and
+from under the saddle, but started buying them over the seas.  Of
+English shipping she gathered into her war-fold such a number of boats
+as I do not dare to repeat.  She gathered in under the admiralty flag
+so many steamships from the mercantile marine that those which were
+found most expensive to operate were soon turned back into the channels
+of trade.  With the many hundred steamers that she commandeered she set
+about transporting everything needed, including horses, from over the
+ocean.
+
+The French bought their horses by the thousand in Texas and contracted
+at good prices for their shipment to Bordeaux.  Steamship rates became
+almost prohibitive, and the horses arrived from their long journey in
+poor condition.  England inspected the horses in America, paid for
+them, and then put them in charge of her own men on her own ships, and
+landed them by the shortest routes in England and on the Continent, in
+prime condition.
+
+Although Germany had been buying liberally of horses in Ireland as
+early as March, when the long arm of Great Britain reached out there
+was no failure in her mounts for the cannon and cavalry divisions.  For
+good horses at home and abroad she did not hesitate to pay as high as
+$350.
+
+Americans should not forget that this war has brought about the
+greatest contraction in ocean tonnage that has ever been seen.  I
+estimate that about one fourth of the world's oversea tonnage has been
+commandeered, interned, or put out of service.  Before the war the
+Germans had nearly one eighth of the world's mercantile tonnage.  That
+is now interned, destroyed, or tied up, outside the trade on the
+Baltic.  As much more has been taken by the Allies from the mercantile
+to the war marine.  It must also be figured that the Baltic and other
+seas hold locked-in ships, and the bottom of the sea likewise holds
+some more.
+
+Considering the sudden demand upon the world's mercantile tonnage and
+its sudden curtailment, it is surprising that ocean commerce has not
+been more interfered with or made to pay even higher rates than the
+abnormal ones now existing.
+
+Of war-tonnage, besides three superdreadnoughts purchased and four
+finished before the end of 1914, the British have under construction to
+be finished in 1915 ten battleships of from 25,500 to 27,500 tons,
+armed with 15-inch guns.  The French have finished four of 23,000 tons,
+with 13 1/2-inch guns, and are finishing three more.  The Russians are
+at work upon six of 23,000 tons, with 12-inch guns.  The Japanese are
+building one superdreadnought of 30,000 tons, with 14-inch guns, and
+three battle-cruisers of 27,500 tons and 27-knot speed, with 14-inch
+guns.
+
+Churchill, it will be remembered, figured that England could lose one
+battleship each month and still maintain her full strength.  While the
+building of war-tonnage seems to be well in hand, there is no
+corresponding replacement of mercantile tonnage.
+
+I have the highest authority for the statement that the world possesses
+no machinery at the present time to manufacture war-material at the
+rate at which the nations of Europe have been using it during the first
+hundred days of the war.
+
+At one time the German armies were exploding 120,000 shells a day in
+France and Belgium.  The response from the French alone was 80,000
+shells a day, and General Joffre made a request that his supply be put
+up to 100,000 per day.  This is for shells of all sizes, and the
+estimate to me was of an average cost of two pounds, or ten dollars,
+per shell.  Some of the big German shells cost as high as $500 each.
+In some kinds of shrapnel, holding 300 bullets, there are more than
+thirty pieces of mechanism.
+
+Within forty-eight hours after England declared war she had engaged the
+total output of an American manufacturer, whose machinery was an
+important part of the shell-making business.  An American factory in
+Connecticut received orders for $25,000,000 worth of cartridges which
+would mean, at five cents a cartridge, 500,000,000 rounds of
+ammunition.  I know of a single order to America from England for
+10,000,000 horseshoes.
+
+Through a single agency in America more than $150,000,000 worth of
+war-supplies was placed several weeks ago.  I do not know whether this
+included a single order, of which I have knowledge, for 3,000,000
+American rifles, delivered over three years at $30 a rifle, or
+$90,000,000.  The company receiving this order had to work so quickly
+to install new machinery that old buildings were dynamited to clear the
+land.
+
+Such orders to America are bound to tell upon our exports, and,
+combined with the advance in food-stuffs, the loss in cotton values by
+the outbreak of the war is offset more than twice over.
+
+America must feel the effect of these orders when the goods go forward
+in increasing quantities.  They are paid for as promptly as shipped.
+Many an American factory has been put on three eight-hour shifts for
+the day's work on these orders.
+
+A Southern manufacturer received an order for 5000 dozen pairs of socks
+to be shipped weekly for six months.  The price was under $1.00 per
+dozen, with ten per cent of wool in them.  He complained that he was
+making only twenty cents per dozen profit, while if he had not been so
+anxious for the order, he might just as well have got a price that
+would have shown more than twice this profit.
+
+In boots and shoes, England, instead of giving orders to this country,
+has been buying leather in America, and filling all her own factories.
+It is the policy of England to fill every workshop in her tight little
+island before she permits business to overflow.
+
+To-day there are no unemployed in Great Britain, except in the cotton
+districts dependent upon German trade.  Wage advances and overtime are
+the rule rather than the exception.  The one country that the warring
+world must turn to for supplies is the United States, and that in
+increasing measure.  Orders for $300,000,000 of war goods already
+received must be duplicated several times.
+
+Every American automobile manufacturer able to deliver motor-trucks in
+lots of one hundred, has received his orders for shipments to the
+Allies.
+
+Germany has now no base from which to get many important supplies.  In
+a long contest the Allies will supply motor-cars, shells, guns, and
+ammunition to a far greater extent than Germany can manufacture them.
+Factories for this work are expanding in both Russia and America.  The
+English do not speak against the Germans as a people.  They believe
+them seriously misled by Prussian militarism, which they declare must
+be crushed absolutely.
+
+Where formerly England was an open door to Germans and suspicions
+against German spies were laughed at, the bars are now sharply up.
+Most of the golfing clubs have voted to suspend the activities of
+members with German antecedents.
+
+At the clubs in Pall Mall, notices have been posted requesting members
+not to introduce during the war Germans or those of German descent.
+
+Membership on the Stock Exchange is not continuous as in this country,
+and at the March elections in 1915 there will be a dropping out of
+German names.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XII
+
+ENGLISH WAR FINANCE
+
+Protecting Trade and the Trader--How German Banks Paid--The English
+Loan--England's Wealth--The Income Tax--More Taxes.
+
+
+A giant Atlas bearing the civilized world on its financial shoulders
+has arisen between the North and the Irish seas.  That is the picture
+that stands at the opening of 1915, where before Germany had endeavored
+to stamp the label "Perfidious and degraded nation of shopkeepers."
+
+Only the pencil of a Doré could sketch this giant and put him in
+figures of proper relief as, aroused from his pastime of trade and the
+acquisition of shillings, he summons with one hand the resources of the
+empire and with the other passes them out to needy warring nations,
+taking care all the while that the necessary dealing of exchange and
+commerce have the least possible disturbance.
+
+Kitchener says the war may last for two years, but he is making
+preparations for three years, and must do this job so thoroughly that
+no repetition will be required.
+
+If it is war for three years, then this mighty financial Atlas of
+England is preparing to write its name on promises to pay more gold
+than all the money-gold on the surface of the earth today.  And England
+won't hesitate to do it if necessary--not for one moment.
+
+How can she advance money to Russia, Belgium, France, and other
+countries at war or just going into the war, and ask no foreign
+assistance, no overseas help,--except to be let alone,--expand her home
+trade and wages, pay with a lavish hand, and still pile up real gold
+both at home and over the ocean?
+
+The first answer is because she does expand trade; because she does pay
+and pay promptly; and because she does protect her own trade.
+
+The United States does not protect its trade or its citizens anywhere
+in the world to-day.  It shivers in war-time, and borrows of everybody
+else when it has a panic of its own.
+
+There is only one way to make trade, and that is to pay and protect.
+England, through centuries of fighting to protect both trade and the
+trader, has learned the way to the highest freedom in both trade and
+finance.
+
+Therefore, before this most Audacious War was set afoot England had a
+very small stock of coin gold but a very large stock of gold
+credit-bills.
+
+For years England has held in her cash box from $1,800,000,000 to
+$2,500,000,000 of the commercial credits of the world.  With goods and
+trade-honor behind these promises to pay gold, she had no need of the
+metal but only of command of the seas, that her gold might come in when
+needed.  When the war broke out, $600,000,000 of these gold promises to
+pay were of German and Austrian origin.  The big London bankers who had
+their names on the back of such acceptances could not in honor
+underwrite any more commercial bills.  They knew their capital was
+involved in collection of those already out.
+
+But Britain said the commerce of England must go on as well as the war.
+The people who held these acceptances were promptly invited to turn
+them into the Bank of England, which held the guaranty of Great Britain
+behind it, and receive the money therefor; the discount rate after
+maturity to have 2 per cent added thereto, 1 per cent to go to the Bank
+for expenses and 1 per cent to the government for reserve fund to cover
+any losses.  Of such bills $600,000,000 were promptly discounted.
+
+I hear that two banks, the London City & Midland with its $525,000,000
+of deposits, and Lloyds' Bank, both refused to rediscount.  They
+believed the investments in commercial paper they had made were
+perfectly good, and that they were as well able as the Bank to wait for
+payment until one year after the war if necessary.
+
+But to date more than half of these rediscounted bills have been paid.
+
+It may be of financial interest to narrate how payments could be
+accomplished when by the King's orders there could not be any "dealings
+with the enemy" and payment to either side was forbidden by both.  Yet
+the Dresdner Bank and other big German and Austrian banks have to date
+met fully one half their London obligations.
+
+They were enabled to do this because their London branches were
+independent institutions whose independence was recognized by the
+British government.  The London branches were thus liquidated,
+collecting in and meeting their obligations at maturity, so far as
+possible.
+
+Liquidation in acceptances is one of the keys to the success of the
+English loan.  While England had the ability before the war to discount
+$2,500,000,000 of acceptances, and with the present expanded base of
+the Bank would, without war, have the ability to discount
+$3,000,000,000, or three times our national debt, there is now no large
+business offering.  The discount credits can therefore be measurably
+turned to the war-loan account.  One of the biggest acceptance houses
+in London told me that the post-moratorium bills, or the new
+acceptances made after the moratorium, could not amount to more than
+80,000,000 pounds, or $400,000,000.
+
+With the liquidation on account of pre-moratorium bills and the absence
+of new business I should estimate that the London money market was able
+to take care of the 350,000,000 pounds loan put forth in November by
+the government without much regard to the investing community.
+
+With expanding trade and confidence, English investment interests can
+absorb the major part of this huge loan before next summer, when
+another loan of about equal size must be put forth, according to
+present calculations.  This second loan will probably be for three or
+four hundred millions pounds sterling, bear 4 per cent, and issue at
+par.  The November loan was issued at 95 per cent and it was announced
+in Parliament that the Bank of England would loan the issue price at
+one per cent under the Bank rate.
+
+That the loan was fully subscribed is not contradicted by the small
+fraction of discount soon quoted on the full-paid loan.  One could
+fully pay the loan, taking the discounts on undue maturities and sell
+at a fraction under 95 and still make a profit.
+
+I believe the estimate of an annual English surplus for investment of
+$2,000,000,000 per annum is far too low.  This figure is upon the basis
+that only about 20 per cent of the river of interest, dividends, and
+profits flowing annually to British pocket-books is available for
+reinvestment.
+
+In the present war stress and with economy practised to-day more by the
+capitalist classes than the laboring classes, the amount of money for
+reinvestment should be far greater than this.
+
+English finance will cut its cloth according to the pattern.  If there
+is only $2,000,000,000 per annum of surplus earnings to put into the
+war, that money will be spent; and if England has 50 or 100 per cent
+more, that money likewise will be spent, but spent so judiciously that
+the largest possible sum from it is kept in channels of English trade.
+The British Empire will work and finance the fight thus within a
+circle, and right on its own base.
+
+The surprising thing is that it can be called upon to extend financial
+help to its allies.  But everybody except Germany was caught absolutely
+unprepared.  The war was early on French soil, tying up the resources
+of some of the richest provinces of France.  Russia had so little
+thought of war that, as I have previously explained, she had deposited
+from her great gold reserve so that it had been loaned out on time and
+therefore was not available for the start of the war.  Hence we have
+the spectacle of Russia gathering up 8,000,000 pounds sterling in gold
+and sending it to the Bank of England and, on this basis, borrowing of
+the Bank 20,000,000 pounds sterling.
+
+Of course, this is good banking and good business and a good alliance.
+The Allies are bunching their war orders and credits, and England is
+entitled to hold the bag since she is carrying the financial burden.
+
+England's war finance is not wholly measured in her expenses or loans
+to other countries.  In a single issue of a London paper you can count
+daily reports of more than a dozen charitable funds connected with the
+war-work.  These funds range all the way from "Aid to the
+Mine-Sweepers," "Gloves for the Soldiers," and the "Servian Relief and
+Montenegrin Red Cross Funds" up to the "Prince of Wales's Fund."
+
+This last was over $20,000,000 before Christmas.  The suddenness of
+this war may be illustrated by this fact: A friend of mine, who is
+managing director of a big English concern, has assumed the
+responsibility for seven years past of keeping in England one year's
+supply of everything that his company was likely to require from the
+Continent.  This was at a cost to his company of many thousands of
+dollars.  With dogged determination he stuck to the same policy for
+1914, although in January of that year it was clear to him that Germany
+could not afford to go to war.  While he was happy over his judgment,
+he admitted in conversation with me in December, 1914, that in January,
+1914, the outlook was less indicative of a general European war than it
+had been for many years.
+
+Thirty per cent of the workmen of his factory had gone to the war and
+his company was providing 250,000 pounds sterling a year to maintain
+the wages of the workmen at war up to the same amount as they would
+receive if they had stayed at home.  He said that in one of his
+offices, of 80 men eligible for the work, 78 had enlisted, and, what
+was wonderful, the women were glad to take up the heavy work abandoned
+by the men,--something they would have refused to do in all ordinary
+times.  On the whole, the output of this concern and its efficiency
+were materially increased, not diminished, by the war.
+
+It is figured that troops at the front mean an expenditure of one pound
+per man per day, and that English troops in training mean an
+expenditure of not less than ten shillings per man per day.
+
+The war expenses of Great Britain must thus be above one million pounds
+per day and steadily increasing.  Indeed, the best economic estimate I
+have of the cost of the war to England is 500,000,000 pounds the first
+year.
+
+While the English declare that they are fighting for their children and
+their grandchildren, they are not willing to leave to them the full
+load of the war-cost, and gladly do they assume all possible burdens in
+the present time.
+
+The income tax, which began in 1842 at two pence in the pound, has now
+been doubled from one shilling and three pence to two shillings and six
+pence in the pound.  This is on the average, and takes nearly one
+eighth of a man's income.  There are very great variations in this tax.
+The rate I have given is the rate on dividends.  Upon wages and
+salaries the tax is somewhat less.
+
+The income tax is also apportioned over a three years' average.  The
+supertax raises the contribution of the wealthy to one fourth of their
+incomes, although on the average it is figured to take only an eighth.
+
+It is expected that the income tax may be further increased, possibly
+doubled, next year.  I was not surprised therefore to find American
+millionaires with houses in London returning to New York and making
+sure of their American citizenship.
+
+Every penny in the pound in the tax rate produces 2,500,000 pounds
+sterling, or $12,500,000, nearly one half the national income tax of
+the United States for 1913.  Indeed, the English income tax for the
+year ending March 31,1915, is estimated to produce 75,000,000 pounds
+sterling, or about twelve times the income tax of the United States and
+from less than half the number of people.  In other words, the income
+tax of Great Britain per capita is this year twenty-five times that of
+the United States.
+
+But still the United States is really in no need either of income tax
+or of war-machinery.  It is too late for the United States to prepare
+for any contest with the one nation that goes to war over
+tariffs--Germany.
+
+After this war and a settlement of the Mexican situation, warships will
+be for sale at fifty cents on the dollar.  Germany will have no navy of
+consequence, and England will reduce her present navy by at least one
+half, since her expansion of late years has been forced entirely by
+Germany.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XIII
+
+GERMAN RESOURCES
+
+The Food-Supply--War Expenses--The Copper Supply--The Call for Gold--No
+Outside Resources--The Human Sacrifice.
+
+
+Counting Montenegro and Servia as two nations, there are now seven
+countries at war against Germany, Austria, and Turkey, and two more,
+possibly three, may join in within a few weeks.  If Greece enters the
+battle-line, it will be ten nations against three.  When Roumania and
+Italy join the Allies, as is now being diplomatically arranged, Germany
+will be completely surrounded, with Switzerland, Holland, and Denmark
+in a measure locked in and powerless to give aid or assistance to the
+Germans.  Indeed, these three smaller countries and Scandinavia are
+practically locked in now, with the North Sea placed in the war zone,
+and Italy as well as Denmark and Holland shutting out all contraband
+goods for reëxport to Germany and Austria.
+
+Thus we have the spectacle of two nations of more than 115,000,000
+people actually surrounded and besieged.  Jointly these two nations in
+occupation of their entire territory could feed themselves from their
+own soil.  They cannot be starved out, as in a besieged city, for lack
+of bread, meat, or drink.  But the siege at the present time is not
+against the people of Germany and Austria: it is against the
+war-machine of Germany.  This war-machine can be starved out when cut
+off from gold, copper, rubber, and oils.  If these cannot be cut off,
+then her men must be cut down.
+
+Germany has raised by war-loan $1,100,000,000.  She has spent this and
+$500,000,000 more besides.  The financial strain is shown in her paper
+and exchanges at discounts outside her own border.  Within her own
+realm she is piling up a gold reserve in her great bank, to sustain her
+expanded paper issues and her strained credit; but how is she securing
+the gold?
+
+Calling a mark a shilling, or 25 cents, let us speak for a moment of
+Germany's finances in marks.  After the war of 1870 she planted
+125,000,000 marks in gold from the French indemnity in her war-tower at
+Spandau.  In June, 1913, the Reichstag voted to double this to
+250,000,000 marks in gold, the addition to be known also as the Spandau
+tower reserve, but to be placed in the Reichsbank and not counted in
+the bank reserves.  There was also to be coined 125,000,000 marks in
+silver.
+
+The whole was simply a stirrup-cup to enable Germany quickly to bound
+into the war-saddle with purchase of horses, food, and the light or
+perishable munitions of war which must be had at the outset and at a
+time when war panic first seizes the currency and supplies of a
+community.
+
+The basis of German finance was 1,200,000,000 marks in specie, mostly
+gold, in the vaults of the Reichsbank at Berlin--the central bank of
+issue and bankers' deposits--with its 485 branches.
+
+Before the war this metal reserve had been brought up to 1,400,000,000
+marks.  At the outbreak of the war, of course, the Spandau tower
+reserve in specie must have gone into the bank, and every metal reserve
+that the government could lay its hands upon likewise went into the
+bank.  Germany then boasted a gold reserve approaching 2,000,000,000
+marks.  In this month of February the bank gold reserve was put well
+above 2,000,000,000.
+
+Bank-paper issues meanwhile expanded by the billion.
+
+The great contest in Germany is to maintain this bank metal reserve,
+and it is the task of Sisyphus and of herculean proportions.  Outside
+of the United States, Germany has probably little, if any, credit
+to-day.  She must pay in gold for what she buys from without, and from
+without she must get copper and oil.  Lubricating oils are troubling
+her now quite as much as diminishing supplies of gasolene.
+
+To get copper for munitions of war she can produce within her own
+borders 90,000,000 pounds.  Of late years she has been importing from
+America 300,000,000 pounds per annum, so that electrification has been
+going on for many years all over Germany, and copper wires in
+telegraph-postoffice work scintillate in the skyline of the German
+cities.  These can come down and be replaced with iron or aluminum.  Of
+course, the first wires to come down will be the power-transmission
+wires.  They can readily be replaced with aluminum, of which Germany is
+the parent producer.  A very fair telephone service can be maintained
+with iron wires.  Those who are looking for the exhaustion of Germany
+on a copper basis are reckoning without knowledge of German resources.
+
+For petrol she can substitute benzol and alcohol, with some
+inconvenience.  Germany is likewise the home and center of industrial
+alcohol, which it manufactures from surplus products.  But when it
+comes to gold, there is the rub.  Germany fixes a price of 20 cents a
+pound for copper within her own borders, but the government will pay 30
+cents a pound to anybody who will deliver it to her from the outside.
+Indeed, I have heard of one lot of copper in Sweden for which 40 cents
+a pound was bid if the parties could ship it out across the Baltic.
+
+I have a friend who was bid $5 a gallon for gasolene if he would land
+it within Germany, but such bids are not necessarily convincing.  They
+may be made to fool the enemy.  There are also stories of great
+underground storage-tanks of petroleum, owned by the government and
+concealed in the Black Forest, that have never yet been touched.  It is
+inconceivable that Germany should plunge into a great war without
+having resources of copper and petroleum.  But for all that is bought
+from without she must pay gold.  No financiers know better the value of
+gold as the underpinning in finance than do the Germans.
+
+Germany was very lavish with her gold at the start, and the French
+believed that it was an assistance in her military strategy.  At the
+battle of Charleroi 50,000 German cavalry screened an unsuspected
+infantry force of 300,000 men and the French had to retreat; but that
+Maubeuge surrendered 40,000 men, without more fighting, gives rise in
+the French mind to suspicions of German gold.  The anathemas of the
+French against their commander at Maubeuge make it much safer for him
+to remain a prisoner in Germany.  The French caught one German wearing
+a French uniform but having upon his person one million francs.  Of
+course, they shot him as a spy, but they were more incensed by the
+bribes he carried than by his uniform.
+
+Everybody in Germany is called upon to lend a hand in maintaining the
+supply of gold for the government.  The patriotism of the people was
+first appealed to.  Then laws were passed.  People are "requested" to
+give up their jewelry, to make a patriotic sacrifice of it for the
+Fatherland.  Cards are printed in the newspapers urging the people for
+the sake of the Fatherland to bring all their gold into the Reichsbank.
+
+So fine is the search for gold that wedding rings are given from the
+fingers of the women, and iron rings are substituted as badges of
+patriotism.
+
+While every other nation on earth since 1900 has been accumulating gold
+in bank reserve, England alone has stood aloof and accumulated credit
+instead of gold.  English financiers laugh at gold except as it can be
+made useful.  They prefer to hold interest-bearing promises to pay
+gold.  To-day England holds the keys to the world's gold outside of
+Germany, and I have a suspicion that she is not averse to American
+cotton going into Germany if it takes out the gold in return.
+
+Germany is young as a banking, trading, and industrial nation.  England
+insists that both men and gold must be at work.  In Germany the gold
+reserve must be maintained and, with foreign trade cut off, men must be
+idle.  In England both the gold and the men are at work.  Labor was
+never better employed in England than to-day.  The English policy in
+this wartime is to fill every idle hand with productive industry; to
+work the machinery day and night; and to keep the gold in England so
+far as is necessary and to keep it circulating in England.  The
+national loss begins when you lose either the golden days of labor, the
+gold of the sunshine that makes the harvest of the valleys or the gold
+of finance and commerce.
+
+When the Germans fought the French in 1870, 60 per cent of her people
+lived on the land.  Now, forty-four years later, she is fighting the
+whole world, but only 30 per cent of her people live by the fruit of
+the soil.
+
+That is the simple answer as to why Germany, a country besieged, cannot
+win against the world.
+
+Germany has no sea-expansive ability, no foreign credit, no
+international reserves to carry out an offensive warfare.  Her only
+possibility of success lay in a sudden and decisive march over the rich
+territory of France, the possession of Paris, and a huge indemnity tax
+levy as in 1871.  The rest might have been easy.  Hence the supreme
+military necessity for a quick drive through Belgium, the only open
+road to Paris.  The size of the crime in Belgium has shown the supreme
+financial necessity.  There was no military necessity for the outrage
+against the free Belgian people--only the economic necessity.
+
+There is nothing left for Germany but a defensive warfare, a warfare
+now conducted upon foreign soil just over her own borders--the burden
+upon the enemy, the supply base near at hand.
+
+Germany must reduce and conserve her shell-fire.  The Krupp works have
+no ability to turn out daily the number of shells that Germany was
+exploding, and the United States in its own arsenals could not in a
+year make a week's supply of shells at the rate at which they were
+being exploded from Switzerland to the English Channel.
+
+Greater than progress in the arts of peace is progress in the art of
+war.  We have read in the American papers of a most wonderful new
+French shell that in bursting paralyzes and destroys life so instantly
+that all the living things within so many yards are, in a flash, set
+rigid in position as though manufactured for Jarley's Wax Works, the
+officer standing in position with uplifted arm, yet dead, the soldier
+by the window with a cigar in his fingers, a smile on his face, stone
+dead.
+
+I was informed that the effectiveness of this shell was not due to its
+poisonous gases but to the fact that, instead of being filled with
+bullets, it was charged with a wonderful new explosive.
+
+For the development of the science of war twelve months in the line of
+battle is worth in new inventions ten years of peaceful military study.
+A three years' warfare for which the English are planning is likely to
+put Germany's thirty years of "peaceful" war preparation quite in the
+shade, so far as practical results are concerned.
+
+I hear of new and more powerful mortars and cannon, wonderful new
+rifles, now being manufactured by the million from secret plans, and
+new guns to bring down Zeppelins, that it is not useful to discuss here.
+
+In the first six months of this war, the German casualties must be well
+up toward 2,000,000.  A million of the injured may go back to the
+firing line.
+
+But in killed, seriously wounded, missing, and prisoners, Germany must
+be losing at the rate of 2,000,000 men a year, and the forces of
+destruction against her will increase rather than diminish.  That she
+can lose at this rate for three years and have anything left worth
+consideration as a military power is beyond reason.
+
+Nevertheless, when I spoke with a very prominent American, now in a
+responsible position abroad, he said: "The Germans have food and
+supplies, and they have an idea; and the only way to overcome that idea
+is by their destruction.  The South had no resources for a three-year
+or four-year war, but it had an institution, an idea, and a
+determination.  If you will recall it, at the close of the war there
+were practically no men left in the South.  This war will be over when
+the fighting men of Germany have been killed off."
+
+I have so much respect for the business, mathematical, and scientific
+mind of Germany, that I cannot believe she will prefer the destruction
+of the German people, individually or collectively, to the destruction
+of the German war-machine which set on this war.
+
+I make the following estimate of the casualties--killed, wounded,
+missing, and prisoners--of the warring powers, omitting Turkey and
+Japan, up to February 1, 1915:--
+
+  German........ 1,800,000
+  French........ 1,200,000
+  Russian....... 1,600,000
+  Austrian...... 1,300,000
+  Belgian.......   200,000
+  Servian.......   150,000
+  Montenegrin...    20,000
+  English.......   110,000
+    Total....... 6,280,000
+
+
+Not in a hundred years, or since the Napoleonic wars of 1793 to 1815,
+has there been any war approaching these casualties now reaching in six
+months to six millions.
+
+A remarkable statistical fact concerning the war, which I ran across in
+London, was a computation that the deaths in the navy were
+substantially equal to those in the army, from the beginning of the war
+up into November.  Of casualties in the army, only about 10 per cent
+are deaths.  There are few wounded to be returned home from a naval
+disaster.  When the English army had suffered about 60,000 casualties,
+making about 6000 men killed, at the same time from the naval service
+6000 boys in blue had gone down to watery graves.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XIV
+
+IS IT THE PEOPLE'S WAR?
+
+German Socialism--German Unity--A Reverse Political System--Business
+Men without Political Influence--A Voice from the People--The German
+War Lord.
+
+
+In America there is no greater conflict of opinion than over the
+question of the relations of the German people to the present war.
+There are those who declare most emphatically that when the German
+people once understand this war there will be revolution in Germany,
+uprising of the socialists, and the sure overthrow of the Hohenzollern
+dynasty.
+
+Such opinions are not well based, and their authors do not understand
+the German temperament, the principles of German government, German
+organization, or German Socialism.
+
+Socialism in Germany is neither of the destructive order of that in
+Russia, nor of the wild varieties found in America; nor has it even the
+order of the Socialism of England.  Twenty years ago the Socialism of
+Germany might be recorded as against the invasion of Belgium, and the
+bonds of Socialism existing between Belgium, France, and Germany might
+have interfered with the war programme.
+
+But Socialism in Germany has passed the stage of labor-agitation.
+Indeed, it has been transformed in the reign of the present Kaiser from
+agitation against capitalism within the empire to agitation for the
+expansion of Germany in the territory of its neighbors throughout the
+world, that German labor may, through German arms, enter into and
+possess the land without.  German Socialism is thus allied with German
+militarism, and it has also become the respectable party of opposition
+in the Reichstag.  The middle classes of Germany of late years have
+voted for Socialistic candidates whenever they disagreed with the
+government.  It is the party of protest and of opposition.  It is a
+party of the empire, not of any world socialistic movement.
+
+Germany is thoroughly knit together in support of its government and
+its Kaiser.  The German people do not seek a constitutional government
+like England, or a republican form of government like France or the
+United States.  They believe their situation and safety in the middle
+of Europe call for a more autocratic form of government, and one not
+too quickly responsive to popular sentiment.
+
+Germany was made by Bismarck and the armies of Von Moltke supporting
+the Hohenzollern dynasty.  This made Prussia the center of Germany
+industrially, financially, and as a military power, and at the heart
+and seat of power, in both industry and finance, sits the same dynasty.
+The Emperor is the center of industry, finance, and military
+power,--three degrees of empire, each distinct in itself, but each
+intertwined with the others, but so intertwined that the word of power,
+command and influence comes down from the military seat of power
+through finance and into industry.  Industry does not speak back
+through the powers of finance to the military center.  The flow of the
+German dispensation of power or of governmental organization runs
+downward from the Kaiser.  No power goes up from the people or industry
+or finance to the war lord at the center.
+
+The Germans know no other system of government.  Outside of Prussia, in
+the more than thirty states of Germany, there was the local reign.  Now
+over all is the reign of the Kaiser.  The present generation has seen a
+united Germany become great among the nations of the earth.  The
+English-speaking people cannot appreciate the feudalism and the fealty
+of the German people to their war lord.  They say, "Are not the German
+people great thinkers; do they not know that the power of government is
+from the governed?"  It is inconceivable to them that the Germans
+should have a reverse system.
+
+My last word from Germany was with an American lady who has been more
+than one hundred days nursing the wounded from the battle-line, and
+she, singular as it may appear, assisted on both sides of that
+battle-line.  She assisted to dress the wounds of French soldiers where
+the lacerations of shrapnel had broken one entire side of a human
+system, face, eye, ear, jaw, arm, leg; yet that soldier lived.  She
+dressed wounds where more than twenty bullets pierced a single human
+frame.  Yet that soldier will go back to the front.  French boys in
+their 'teens had died in her arms at the hospital,--the hospital where
+thousands of wounded pass through every month,--and she had taken back
+to the parents in Paris the dying message.  She had been in the German
+and the French trenches on the line of battle.  She had crossed the
+lines and been under arrest.  She had seen the horrible picture of
+freight-loads of German corpses on German railroads,--corpses
+unhelmeted, with uncovered faces, but in boots and uniform, tied like
+cordwood in bunches of three and standing upright on their way to the
+lime-kilns.  She had nursed the wounded German soldier in his delirium,
+crying in German, which she well understood, over the horrors which
+still pursued him as he remembered the face of the wife and saw the
+agony of the children as he stood in line and by direction of his
+superior officer shot the husband dead.  He moaned in his delirium over
+the picture.  The faces of the wife and children haunted him, but he
+cried out that his superior officer had ordered him to do it; and she
+said, "No, these people are not responsible; the dogs of war have
+driven them as sheep into the slaughter-pens.  They are beaten, but
+fight for the Fatherland.  It is their duty and they obey."
+
+And how has it all come about?  Simply thus: The Saxon was a Saxon, the
+Bavarian was a Bavarian; each suddenly found himself a German and part
+of a world-power.  Bismarck and Von Moltke had a policy for the
+Hohenzollerns; it was a united Germany, and they left it a defensive
+Germany.
+
+There was not in the brain of Bismarck or of Von Moltke, or of the
+Emperor under whom they prosecuted the wars against Austria, Denmark,
+and France, any idea of Germany as the Conqueror of the world.
+
+"Never be at enmity with the Russian Bear," was the saying at the time
+of Bismarck and before.  "Always contrive that yours shall be a
+defensive war; let the other party attack," was the declaration of
+Bismarck.
+
+The policy of Bismarck was: "If you have an enemy, make friends with
+all the other powers, so that your enemy be isolated diplomatically and
+politically."
+
+The present Kaiser has reversed every one of the great policies of
+Bismarck and of his ancestors that made a united and great Germany.
+
+There is not a language in the world to-day outside the Teutonic that
+speaks the praise of Germany.  Defensive German alliances are broken
+because the present Kaiser insisted that offensive and defensive are
+one and the same.  In offensive action the Triple Alliance breaks;
+while the Triple Entente becomes, for defense, nine nations instead of
+three.
+
+The German people are not responsible for this situation.  Their form
+of government has not yet permitted full, free, and effective
+expression of opinion; nor does the German seek full political
+expression.  He loves his fireside and his family, and prefers his home
+ease and philosophy.  He has confidence in his Kaiser and his
+government; and his whole training for a generation has been to make
+him an obedient part of a military power.
+
+It is gratifying to find that not the German people, but the German
+Kaiser, is responsible for this war; and it is also gratifying to find
+that there are doubts as to his full mental responsibility.
+
+I have had closer associations with the German people than with the
+French, and have liked them better as a people: they are so
+industrious, efficient, and ambitious in the world's work.  I know the
+German country better than the country of France or England.  I think I
+understand something of the over-self-sufficiency of the English, and I
+have no prejudice against the Germans, or even their form of
+government, which may be better adapted to their needs than a broader
+democracy.  But of the German modern war-philosophy the world outside
+can hold but one opinion.  It might have been supported as a purely
+tentative or speculative philosophy, but it could have been promoted in
+practice only by a crazy ruler.  I was not therefore surprised to find
+circulated in Paris an article by an American physician which I had
+permitted to be published in America at the outbreak of the war,
+showing the mental weaknesses and hereditary taints of Germany's war
+lord.
+
+I recall him from memory of bygone years, and as I saw him in Berlin
+when his grandfather was still on the throne--a young man of about
+twenty, returning from the races and dashing through the Tiergarten
+holding the reins of six coal-black horses.
+
+I said to myself: "That young man will cut a dash yet."  And I still
+see, in higher light than before, those six coal-black horses--the
+horses of death.
+
+Recently I read pages of his writings, speeches, and declarations, and
+there is not for the world an uplifting or new thought within them all.
+What appears to be new is the echo of an age that was supposed to be
+long past--when might was rule and valor was religion.
+
+"There is but one will, and that is mine," said the Kaiser, addressing
+his soldiers; but it has been the keynote to his diplomacy wherever it
+has appeared, either in pushing a commercial treaty on Russia in her
+hour of distress, forcing Italy into the Triple Alliance, or dictating
+the terms of the Austrian ultimatum to Servia, so that it would be
+impossible of fulfilment.
+
+What is there of world-progress in the declaration of the present
+German Emperor, celebrating the two hundredth anniversary of the
+Kingdom of Prussia,--
+
+"In this world nothing must be settled without the intervention of
+Germany and of the German Emperor."
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XV
+
+THE GERMAN POSITION
+
+An Aggressive Germany--The Logic of It--The War Party Supreme--A War for
+Business--What Confronts Germany--Her Finish.
+
+
+A mighty nation surrounded and besieged, yet still fighting on foreign
+soil, is the position of Germany to-day.  Her triumph would mean, not
+alone a European conquest, but a world-conquest.  Her defeat within a
+reasonable time does not mean her destruction or dismemberment.  It means
+only the destruction of Prussian militarism and that theory of national
+existence into which the German people have been led under the present
+emperor, that theory which teaches:--
+
+"War and courage have done more great things than Charity."
+
+"What is good?  All that increases the feeling of power; the will to
+power."
+
+"The weak and debauched must perish, and should be helped to perish."
+
+
+This is the philosophy, the teaching and the language of Nietzsche and on
+it Treitschke and Bernhardi founded their war propaganda.
+
+When Emperor William II ascended the throne and became the "All Highest
+War Lord," he found himself at the head of two great Germanys: a military
+Germany arising from the Prussian conquest of France in 1870, by which
+more than thirty states had been welded into a compact unity of military
+order, commercial tariffs, railroad transportation, and national finance;
+and an industrial Germany forging ahead in the commercialism of the earth
+at a pace exceeded by no other nation.
+
+Bismarck and Von Moltke had made a Germany for defense.  The railways did
+not flow to the ocean for the interchange of commerce.  They ran
+primarily east and west to the Russian and French frontiers for military
+reasons; but never for attack, always for defense.  It was expected that
+France would revive and again seek to try issues with Germany.  In this
+she might possibly be assisted by Russia.  Hence the German plans were
+for defense against these two countries.
+
+As Germany developed in industry, the military caste receded relatively.
+Bankers, merchants, shippers, and traders came to the front.  Railways
+bent the traffic of the country to the sea, and harbors and ports of
+commerce grew with rapid strides.
+
+"What a wonderful business man is the German Emperor!" said the world.
+"He advertises Germany all over the earth by the spiked helmet and the
+rattle of his sword, but never war seeks he."  The world must now revise
+this opinion.
+
+German unity gave rise to German efficiency and German thoroughness, and
+to a demand for a larger German unity.  The whole German-speaking race
+must be put together and bound together.  Germany must expand over the
+seas, in colonial empire, and by tariffs of her own making.  This meant
+that the Germans must have dominion on sea as well as land.  Alliances
+must first be cemented with Austria and her neighboring states.  Italy
+must be dragged into a triple alliance; and the small Balkan States must
+be tied up with Austria, that through an alliance with Turkey, Germany
+might reach not only the Mediterranean but the waters of the Pacific.
+This must happen before the great try-out for the mastery of the seas.
+
+Now, the central point in the study of Germany under the present Kaiser
+is the naval programme for over-seas conquest, which was originated
+entirely by the present Kaiser.  It was he and no other who aimed to turn
+defensive Germany into aggressive Germany.  He has been the author from
+the beginning of the entire naval programme.
+
+Such a plan must take cunning and strategy covering years.  It must
+proclaim peace to the world but rouse all the fighting blood of the
+German-speaking race.  The spirit for world-conquest must be stimulated
+in all literature and art, in education, and commerce; with the
+individual and the family.  The danger of Germany must be pointed out.
+The greatness and rightfulness of her ambitions in the world must be
+brought forward and educated into the blood of every growing German.
+
+While to the outside world steadily proclaiming peace, the Kaiser was as
+steadily inculcating war and the principles of war into every avenue of
+German thought and philosophy.
+
+The Germans are nothing if not logical and scientific.  They must
+therefore find a reason in philosophy and in the facts of history for
+their national programme.  Those who found these reasons and logically
+set them forth were hailed as the great philosophers and educators of
+Germany.  The logic was simple.  It was that all history and all progress
+had been made by war; that peace-loving races decayed, and finally
+perished, and their places were rightfully taken by the younger, braver,
+sturdier, and hardier fighting races.
+
+"Let your superiority be an acceptance of hardship."  "Die at the right
+time."  "Be hard."  "What is happiness?  The feeling that power
+increases, that resistance is being overcome."  Nietzsche thus talked the
+principles of this philosophy; a something entirely apart from the
+principles of the Christian religion, but an absolutely philosophical,
+modern paganism; a worship of power, the assertions of one's individual
+and national self--"The Will to Power."
+
+Treitschke taught it to the youth of Germany as applied to war,--not the
+necessity for defense but the justice and the righteousness of aggressive
+warfare.  The Emperor and his court hailed these teachings with great
+acclaim.  Chamberlain, an Englishman, printed a book to show that all
+good things were German; that the great Italian art-workers were German;
+that Christ himself was of German origin.
+
+The teachings of Christ were repudiated by Germany, but His greatness in
+world leadership must be claimed for Germany.  Had not all the poets
+given Him the German countenance and complexion, even light hair and blue
+eyes?  The German Emperor bought presentation copies of this book by the
+thousand.
+
+If you think the picture is over-drawn, get a copy of Chamberlain's
+"Foundations of the Nineteenth-Century Civilization."
+
+There are those who acclaim that all these teachings were never meant for
+war; that the Germans, outside of Prussia, being a phlegmatic,
+home-loving, non-military people, needed to have their patriotism
+stimulated with "war talk" and national ambitions.
+
+Now there are those who see that it was all part of a cunning propaganda
+for a world-conquest; that Germany was cultivated industrially and
+financially to give base for military operations.
+
+But most carefully have the business men of Germany been excluded from
+the war councils.  I asked one of the best-informed men in the diplomatic
+cycles of Europe, whose business all his life has been to travel from
+country to country studying the languages, thought, and customs of all
+people, west of Asia and north of Africa: "Are the German bankers and
+business men to have no say in Berlin as to peace and war or the military
+policy of the empire?"  His response was emphatic: "Not one word; they
+would no more be allowed expression of opinion in the inner councils of
+military Germany than would a rank foreigner from the farthest part of
+the earth.  Still in Germany is the business of trade apart from the
+business of government."
+
+The world may now see that the business of Germany was war from the
+beginning under Kaiser Wilhelm II, and that Germany was to be made great
+on land and sea by the sword of war hacking the way for German commerce,
+German tariffs, and German commercialism.  The old feudal idea of trade
+expanded and supported by a war lord has been the idea of Germany since
+the pilot, Bismarck, was dropped by the young Emperor from the ship of
+state.  War for aggression, war for business, war for German expansion,
+has been the scheme.  That these plans were interrupted and the war
+precipitated sooner than expected was most fortunate for American
+civilization and all civilization, west of Germany.
+
+It was the Kaiser who changed the terms of Austria's ultimatum to Servia,
+making them impossible of fulfillment, and then cunningly slipped away on
+a water-trip with the fastest German cruiser behind him, that he might
+come rushing back and cry, "Peace, peace!" while he fenced off every
+peace proposal from effectively reaching Austria.  Servia was willing to
+agree to every demand of Austria except that which involved a change in
+her constitutional government, with which she could not comply in the
+allotted time; but even this she was willing to discuss.  The Kaiser gave
+Russia twelve hours to demobilize, and then declared war on her five days
+before Russia even withdrew her minister from Vienna.
+
+While the Germans have gone to war to possess the land and dominate the
+business of their neighbors, they have not gone to war as savage tribes,
+seeking blood and human sacrifice as an end in itself.
+
+I have not dealt with German atrocities in Belgium or France.  War is
+atrocious, and you cannot move millions of men to the slaughter of their
+fellow men without revealing a certain percentage of crimes kindred to
+murder.
+
+In due time, all the atrocities of this war may be shown up in
+photographs which have been taken.  The Carnegie Peace Foundation is
+circulating photographs showing the atrocities in the Bulgarian wars.  It
+might be much more timely for them to circulate photographs showing the
+horrors and atrocities of human sacrifice in this most audacious war.
+
+Previous chapters have shown how German diplomacy slipped, how the German
+secret service had gathered the facts of the military, financial, and
+political weaknesses of Russia, Great Britain, and France, yet with no
+ability to value properly the spirit of the peoples behind this military
+unpreparedness.  Germany has been described as "System without Soul."  It
+remains only to show the relative weaknesses of Germany, and why she
+cannot win this war.
+
+The Allies can reach round the world for men, war-supplies, and financial
+assistance.  Germany can get no more men, no more gold, no more outside
+war-supplies.  She must manufacture and be self-sustaining.
+
+In the first six months of the war Germany has raised a loan of
+4,400,000,000 marks, or about 1,100,000,000 dollars, promptly and
+patriotically taken by her people.
+
+But international bankers inform me that every dollar of this and fifty
+percent more was gone before January 1, 1915.  This is also indicated by
+the expansion of her paper money and her efforts to maintain the gold
+basis under that paper.
+
+As this is regarded as a life-and-death struggle for Germany, the jewelry
+in the Empire must go into the melting-pot.
+
+I can well credit the reports of copper household utensils and building
+materials going into the melting-pot for the copper of war.
+
+And of rubber, for which there is no substitute, I hear that above three
+dollars a pound is being bid in Germany, or about four times the price in
+the United States.
+
+Still, the scarcity of gold, copper, gasolene, or rubber, or all
+combined, might not force Germany to sue for peace.
+
+What I give a final verdict on is the tremendous human sacrifice that is
+exhausting both Austria and Germany.  I do say from good sources that in
+the first twenty weeks of the war the German casualties--wounded,
+prisoners, missing, and killed--were above 1,700,000, while Austrian
+casualties are now approaching a million and a half.
+
+In the first six months of the year Germany and Austria will have
+suffered not less than three million casualties.  Of course, more than
+half these people are wounded, who may go back to the firing line.  But
+the three hundred thousand and more dead will never go back; and many
+vitally wounded and many cripples will be hereafter useless in peace or
+war; and the prisoners that are exchanged with France through Geneva are
+under pledge and mutual government agreement not to take up arms again.
+
+I have also more confidence in the Russian position, numbers, supplies,
+and strategy than is generally possessed in America.
+
+We hear in the press reports of generals at the head of the armies in
+Russia and France.  We do not hear of the wonderful younger generals that
+war is developing, and who are coming forward more rapidly there than
+from any similar developments under the bureaucracy of Germany.
+
+The two greatest military strategists the war has developed are not in
+Germany or England.  They are in Russia and France, and their names have
+not yet crossed the Atlantic in the press reports.
+
+However long Germany may fight on, offensively or defensively, her
+retreat must begin this year.  Then the world will be increasingly
+interested in the terms of peace.
+
+Balfour, the English statesman, says privately, "I know the people look
+for the dismemberment of Germany, and some look for her destruction, but
+this is not the intelligent opinion or intelligent desire.  Germany is an
+indispensable part of the world's industrial, commercial, financial, and
+political organization.  To destroy Germany would be a world loss."  The
+opinion of eminent political and financial people in England is that
+Germany can never repair the total damage she may inflict.  So far as
+England is concerned, next after the destruction of Germany's war-power,
+giving insurance of a European peace, comes first the indemnification of
+every financial loss that Belgium suffers.  This is now estimated at from
+$1,500,000,000 to $2,500,000,000.
+
+What there will be left over in the way of Germany's ability to pay,
+aside from the Kiel Canal, Alsace and Lorraine, and German Poland, is
+problematical.
+
+To have Germany able to pay even a part of the damage she is inflicting
+upon the world, she must be put back upon her industrial feet.
+Therefore, I have declared, when asked about this matter, that in the end
+England would be found the best friend of Germany.  But conquered and
+destroyed must be the Prussian war-machine of aggression, or crumbles the
+art and industry of republican France and the democracy of English
+speech, thought, and government.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XVI
+
+THE LESSONS FOR AMERICA
+
+Wealth is National Defense--Gold Mobilization--Food Supplies
+International--No Financial Independence--Tariffs as War Causes--Are We
+in a Fool's Paradise?
+
+
+The lessons for the United States and for all America from this war are
+so many that it is difficult to arrange them in order.
+
+The first lesson is that nations can be no longer isolated units.  A
+hundred years ago the United States desired to be free from
+Europe,--from its political system, its wage system, and its social
+system.  To-day the United States cannot desire to be freed from any
+country in the world.  Its Panama Canal, its demand for a mercantile
+marine, for countries to take its cotton and cotton goods, and its
+inquiry as to where it can get potash salts and chemical dyes, all show
+the interrelation of modern business which has broken all national
+boundaries.
+
+England is talking to-day of a closer federation in her empire to
+follow this war.  She is asking why she alone should be the protector
+of the seas, and of the peace of Europe, not only for herself and her
+colonies, but for the whole world.  She is already talking of a
+federation for the empire by which Australia, Canada, etc., will have
+direct representation in Parliament, and assist directly in bearing the
+burden of the maintenance of peace.  I doubt if a British federation
+will strengthen the British Empire.  Mutual interest is the great
+federator.  The unwritten Constitution of England has more binding
+force than the written Constitution of the United States.  The Triple
+Entente is stronger and more binding than the Triple Alliance.
+
+The whole world is interested in the maintenance of peace, and it
+should not be the business of any one nation or empire to maintain the
+peace of the world.
+
+Secondly, if the burden is put upon England to maintain the peace of
+the seas and the peace of Europe, she must have a growing empire to
+support that burden.
+
+Already the English people see the spread of her influence which is to
+follow this war and make Cecil Rhodes's dream of a Cape to Cairo
+railroad a reality for Africa.  Egypt, Palestine, and Asia Minor are
+hereafter to be restored in fertility and give a new civilization to
+the shores of the eastern Mediterranean.
+
+Is it to be assumed that with the new development for Africa and Asia,
+Europe is going to abandon her interest on the continents of America?
+
+Will not the very force of these developments make a foundation for
+European developments in North and South America?
+
+Have we not seen that the British Empire has still some interest in the
+Panama canal?  Is it to be supposed that when peace succeeds in Europe,
+and the European nations lie down together for another period of mutual
+development, France will make no inquiry concerning her $800,000,000 of
+property in Mexico?  Or that England will adopt Mr. Bryan's idea that
+any Englishman or American who goes into Mexico cannot look for any
+protection from his home government?
+
+I believe that Lord Cowdray is to-day the foremost business man in
+England.  He represents oil lands in Mexico worth intrinsically more
+than $100,000,000.  Is it the policy of the British government to say,
+"Cowdray, forget it, and come over and develop Mesopotamia; living is
+unsettled in Mexico, and Uncle Sam has told 'em to fight it out"?
+
+A third lesson the United States will receive from this war is the
+value of large units in business and the value of national wealth as
+national defense.
+
+Instead of trying to pull down wealth and individual accretions of
+wealth, the country will recognize that all savings and every increment
+of fortune, small or large, are for the ultimate benefit and for the
+prosperity and defense of the whole country.
+
+In this war Russia is poor in railroads, and the advantage that Germany
+has held over her in Poland is more by reason of the German railways
+than the German armies.  Railways are products of wealth and individual
+capital, and the sooner the United States learns this lesson, the
+better.
+
+A fourth lesson for the United States from this war is the value of
+gold in bank reserves, and the value of ability to mobilize quickly
+such reserves.  No nation in the world to-day is more closely tied to
+every other nation than by the invisible strings of gold.  Every nation
+in the world has an interest in the gold supply and the gold reserve in
+bank throughout the world.
+
+There are those in England who still believe that this war will be the
+supreme test of the gold monometallic base for money and banking.
+There is no thought as yet that Germany, if driven off the gold base,
+will seek a silver base.  It has always been declared by the
+bimetallists that the successor of gold monometallism will be paper,
+and Germany is expected to go upon a paper rather than a silver basis.
+
+In exchange operations German paper is about 8 per cent discount, but
+exporting gold or buying or selling gold at a premium is by law
+forbidden.  All are penal offenses.
+
+England can stand upon a gold basis because she commands the gold
+promises to pay, but in war time she can threaten the stability of the
+monetary systems of many countries.  The United States saved its gold
+base by closing the Stock Exchange, but the South American countries
+were quickly in distress for gold.
+
+To put India on a gold basis a few years ago, a tax was levied on
+Indian silver imports with the result that India has absorbed
+$400,000,000 in gold from England in the last five or six years, and
+where payments to India were formerly one-quarter gold and
+three-quarters silver, they are now one-quarter silver and
+three-quarters gold.
+
+All these matters are being sharply watched by the English economists.
+
+A fifth lesson we may draw from the war is the necessity for a larger
+official representation abroad.  It was fortunate that before the
+outbreak of the war the American embassy in London had been moved to
+larger quarters by the gardens west of Buckingham Palace.
+
+The strain that was thrown upon that embassy for information,
+passports, transportation, etc., was something terrific.  United States
+statutes allow this embassy only three secretaries, but it had to use
+eight, and the work continued until 3 A.M., and sometimes 5 A.M.  There
+was only one relief in the situation and that was in a study of the
+queer characters one finds abroad, insisting that they are
+representative Americans.  Some of the people demanding free
+transportation back to America declared their residence to be in
+Hoboken, but could not tell if Hoboken were nearer New York City than
+to San Francisco.  It was a great temptation for some people to get out
+of the war zone and into America at the expense of Uncle Sam.  The
+amount of business transacted by this embassy may be illustrated by the
+fact that the cable tolls alone for several months cost more than the
+former total expenses of the embassy.
+
+Still another lesson from the war that America must learn is that food
+supplies are now not national, but international.  We have seen the
+price of sugar in the United States jumping up and down in a commercial
+battle between England and Germany almost before their clash at arms.
+
+Before the war, 80 per cent of the sugar consumed in England was
+produced in Germany.  England, under her free trade policy, had
+permitted German beet sugar interests, fattened upon a government
+bounty, to destroy the refinery interests in the south of England.  The
+Island gained by the trade because her refineries were turned into
+sugar canneries.  Jams and marmalades therefrom expanded her foreign
+trade.  Germany, however, at the outbreak of this war, proposed to cut
+off, or tax heavily, England's sugar supply.  Into the markets of the
+world went the British Treasury and in a few days the government was in
+command of an eighteen months' supply of sugar for the whole of Great
+Britain.  Down went the price of sugar in Germany, and now the
+government is taking measures to restore prosperity to her sugar
+interests by a reduction in beet-sugar plantings.  The English
+government is selling sugar in England at a loss, as a war measure, and
+will not permit sugar purchases in any country where Germany sells her
+sugar.
+
+Nothing but the strain of war could have induced the Bank of England to
+count a hundred million dollars in gold sent from New York into Canada
+as a part of the Bank's metal reserve.
+
+There is now no reason why this relation should not continue.  Why
+should fifty or a hundred million in gold be sent across the ocean in
+the spring, to be returned in the fall?  The world is going to be still
+more a unit in finance hereafter.  It has taken a generation to educate
+the world to the right of the individual in the common fund of money,
+so far as money is needed to effect transfer of credits.  This is the
+keynote in our Federal Reserve act: that business has just as much
+right to regulation promoting safe and smooth credits as it has to
+national regulation promoting safe and sound transportation.
+
+Out of this war must arise better international relations, and they
+comprise not alone the relations of peace, but closer relations to
+international transportation, as respects both ships, international
+money, and international credit.
+
+While many people are looking for financial independence between
+nations, the United States taking back from Europe in the next three
+years the larger part of the $6,000,000,000 of American securities
+owned abroad, it is quite possible that the opposite will take place: a
+greater interrelation, not only in credits but in investments.
+
+If nations are to be more closely knit together hereafter, it will be
+not alone in alliances of peace, but in financial alliances in security
+ownership.
+
+It is far better for both Europe and America that, instead of Europe
+selling its American securities, America should buy European
+securities--first, acceptances, making a basis for credits and
+international purchases in connection with the war; and later, American
+investment in the funds of foreign nations.  It may be that before this
+war is over many European nations will have to appeal to America with
+their loans.
+
+If France could see her way clear to put out a long-term loan at 5 per
+cent instead of short-term loans at this rate, there should be a good
+investment field for it in America.
+
+Russia is an unconquerable country, and her securities at a good rate
+should be attractive for some American capital.
+
+There is no reason why the 3 per cent bonds of Germany should not soon
+be investigated for investment purposes in America.  The German debt is
+very small and, however long the war may continue, German bonds will
+ultimately be paid.  They are quoted now at about 70, and, with the
+discount on exchange, they may be purchased from America at nearly 60,
+or to get 5 per cent on the investment, to say nothing of possible
+appreciation toward par in the future.
+
+One may well believe the Germans to be misled in this war, and yet
+properly await opportunity to purchase at the right time their
+outstanding national bonds when these can be purchased so much more
+advantageously toward the end of the war than in the beginning of the
+era of peace, which must in time follow.  Is it not just as neutral to
+purchase German bonds from the Germans as to purchase ships or our own
+railroad shares from Germany?
+
+A great and primary lesson for the United States is in a thorough
+understanding that this war was caused by tariffs.  The United States
+is the home of protective tariffs.  The sentiment under a protective
+tariff is national selfishness.  England has bought in other markets
+wherever she could buy cheapest, and has kept her ports open to the
+cheapest markets.  This may be her selfishness.
+
+It may, however, remain for the United States, while maintaining a
+protective tariff, to look to larger international relations and admit
+reciprocal trade-relations.  There is a wide field for study here in
+connection with this war, for the same spirit--the wresting of
+commercial advantages by tariffs without regard to the fellow
+nation--is in many countries.
+
+We aim in this country to boycott foreign manufactures with the
+declaration that we should give all the advantages to labor in this
+country, and keep our money at home.  But what do we think when we find
+that Germany has for years run a boycott against every American
+enterprise?
+
+America's great International Harvester Company, which has made and
+promoted the great agricultural inventions of the world; the Singer
+Sewing-Machine Company, that spreads its manufactures over the earth,
+and brings back the returns to the United States; all American
+motor-car companies, all American tobacco interests, and, in fact, all
+foreign companies, are boycotted, or barred, or worked against,
+throughout Germany.  Placards in shop windows say, "Don't buy foreign
+goods.  Keep the money in Germany!"
+
+The horrors of backing such a policy by a war machine, that would
+impose German goods upon other countries and keep the products of those
+countries out of Germany, is something to contemplate; but the deepest
+lesson from it is in America, which has the tariffs and not even a
+defensive war machine.
+
+With the Monroe Doctrine so interpreted that no European government can
+enforce security for its citizens or for the property of its citizens
+in Mexico, and with a protective tariff under which we can invite
+countries to send us goods for a series of years and then suddenly bar
+them out, the United States may be dwelling in a fool's paradise from
+the political, military, and economic points of view.
+
+A united Europe cannot be expected to lay down its arms, while arms are
+international arbiters, until there is a better understanding of the
+Monroe Doctrine and European relations to Mexico.
+
+There is only one safety for America, and that is the rule of right and
+of reason.  Tariffs should be neighborly; life and property made secure
+wherever the United States extends its sphere of influence; and
+arbitration should take the place of all wars.
+
+Indeed, the United States, from every standpoint, is the one nation in
+the world to be the promoter of peace, and to assist in its
+enforcement.  There is no other policy for us from the standpoint of
+both national righteousness and national safety.
+
+But this subject is so large that I must present it in the next and
+concluding chapter.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XVII
+
+WHAT PEACE SHOULD MEAN
+
+Not When but How--The Argument for War--Right over Might--National Hate
+as a Political Asset--The Human Pathway--Peace by International
+Police--The Practical Way--Is a New Age Approaching?
+
+
+The endeavor in these pages has been to show from close personal
+research in Europe the cause and cost of this war--cost in finance and
+human lives,--and also the lessons that America, and particularly the
+United States, should derive from this greatest war.
+
+It is not so material when this war terminates, as how it terminates.
+Many people, and especially those sympathetic with Germany, are looking
+for a drawn battle.  This means a world-disaster, and no world-progress.
+
+The British Empire is determined that this war shall mean for
+generations a lasting peace by the destruction of the German war
+machine.  The Germans likewise declare that what they are fighting for
+is the peace of Europe.  The Germans, high and low, declare that this
+peace has been disrupted by jealousy of German culture, German
+efficiency, and German success.  It is difficult to understand the
+German logic, for wars do not lessen jealousy, envy, or race, or
+national hate.  They only increase the jealousy and put peace further
+away than before, unless there is real conquest, division, and
+absorption.
+
+Bismarck declared in 1867 that he was opposed to any war upon France,
+and that if the military party convinced him of ability to crush France
+and occupy Paris, he would be unalterably opposed to the attack.  For,
+said he, one war with France is only the first of at least six, and
+were we victorious in all six, it would only mean ruin for Germany, and
+for her neighbor and best customer.
+
+"Do you think a poor, bankrupt, starving, ragged neighbor as desirable
+as a healthy, solvent, fat, well-clothed one?" demanded Bismarck.
+
+France attacked Germany in 1870 and found her well-prepared armies
+impregnable.  Many believe that the Allies will find the German
+trench-defences now impregnable.  I do not think the Allies will pay
+the price in human sacrifice to invade Germany from the west.  The
+break-up of Germany is more likely to come from her exhaustion and the
+weakness of Austria, against which the pressure will be steadily
+increased.  But what follows the war is most important.  If the
+victorious or defeated nations are to go on arming, they will go on
+warring to the extent that there be left in the world no small nations
+and no unfortified area.
+
+If Germany is to grow other navies, and England is still to build two
+for one, North and South America must in time have navies, the support
+of which will burden the western hemisphere and the progress of
+humanity.  It ought to be clear that this audacious war can mean
+nothing unless it means tremendous progress toward universal peace;
+unless it means that nations are to be guided by the same principles,
+practices, and morality that should guide individuals.
+
+I know all the arguments for the needfulness of war, and there is not
+one of them that will hold water.  Wars exist for the same reason that
+they formerly existed with individuals, or between cities, or
+states,--because there was no organization regulating the relations
+between individuals, cities, and states.  Wars exist between nations
+to-day because there is no organization regulating international
+relations.
+
+Out of this war and its alliances must ultimately come such a
+regulating of international relations, or the world goes back toward
+bankruptcy and barbarism.
+
+It is declared that the people of Europe have wanted this war; that the
+Germans wanted to expand by war; that the French have wanted to fight
+for Alsace-Lorraine; that the Russians must war for a water outlet;
+that the English have favored war for a readjustment of the European
+balances in power.  There are many individuals who want their
+neighbors' goods, or redivision; there are many cities jealous of their
+commercial rivals; there are many states jealous of the progress of
+others; but all these no longer think of war as a method of
+readjustment, or even of redress of grievances.
+
+Patriotism and nationality should no more be a basis of war than civic
+pride or family pride.
+
+Perhaps the first error to be blotted out before a universal peace is
+that which arises from the German teaching that the state is a distinct
+entity or individuality apart from ourselves; that a state has no moral
+status, no moral principles, and can do no wrong; that while we may not
+steal individually, we will justify ourselves in stealing, murdering,
+and plundering collectively, in the name of the state.
+
+When once this error is clearly seen and rooted out, we shall still
+find in every community men who believe that what a man is able to get
+and hold is his by right of possession and power; and we shall still
+have police regulations, departments of justice, and courts of law, to
+defend the weak against injustice from the strong.
+
+We have constitutions in civilized communities to prevent robbery and
+the injustice of majorities upon minorities.  We have sheriffs, police,
+and military power to enforce the edict of right, when once the highest
+tribunal has made the nearest possible human approach to justice.
+
+A distinguished lawyer once said to me that, to him, the most wonderful
+thing in the world was an edict of the Supreme Court of the United
+States; "A few words scrawled upon a scrap of paper and approved by
+some aged individuals of no great physical vigor; and, behold, it is
+instantly the law of a hundred million people!"
+
+And, for the benefit of future human progress, the argument supporting
+that edict is later printed with it; and that in future any errors
+therein may be corrected, the wisdom of the minority or dissenting
+judges is as carefully preserved and bound up with the major opinion
+and edict, that all public sources for correction of error may be
+preserved in the clear amber of legal justice in truth as betwixt man
+and man.
+
+  "For what avail the plow or sail,
+  Or land or life, if freedom fail?"
+
+
+And freedom fails when justice falls and right of might succeeds.
+
+The breaking up of the world's physical body, or of the material
+dwellings and possessions of humanity, may be necessary for "a new
+birth of freedom"; for the incoming of the larger light; for a broader,
+more universal brotherhood.
+
+Individual robbery or wrong may beget individual hate, but law in
+social organization prevents its full expression.  The extent to which
+individual hate may be expanded indefinitely where guns take the place
+of law, may be illustrated by some communities in sparsely settled
+mountainous countries in our Southern states.  Here family feuds and
+individual murder went on through generations, until nobody could tell
+how or why they ever began.
+
+A journalist friend just arrived from Berlin in this month of February
+tells me he detects a general policy in Germany to direct the national
+spirit solely against England, possibly with a view to bringing the
+German people into line for proposals of peace with everybody else.
+The sentiment of Germany is being swung to-day, just as it has been
+from the beginning under the present Kaiser, against England as the
+real and only enemy to a German world-conquest.
+
+Punch says the Germans spell "culture" with a K because England has
+command of all the "C's."  But the English-speaking race has also
+command of the biggest letter in the alphabet, and can say damn with a
+force surpassing expression in any other language.  The most popular
+song to-day in Germany is the "Hymn of Hate," by Ernest Lissauer, whom,
+it is reported, the Kaiser has decorated for this--the only real German
+literature from the war.  It is a hymn and chant, and has rhythm, hiss,
+and fight in it.  It runs to the sentiment,--
+
+  "French and Russian, they matter not,
+  A blow for a blow, a shot for a shot,"
+
+but ends,--
+
+  "We love as one, we hate as one;
+  We have one foe, and one alone--
+        ENGLAND!"
+
+
+And when that last line and that last word burst from thousands of
+German throats, as in the crowded cafés of Berlin, it is the fullest
+German damn that can find expression in German consonants.  I believe
+the Prussians of Berlin would be as pleased to megaphone that line from
+Calais to Dover as they would be to throw their first shell across the
+English Channel.  But if enforced international law did not permit them
+to strive for that shot as the expression of their passion, they would
+soon forget their hot hate and put their shoulder again beneath the
+progress of the world.
+
+Man has come up from the dug-out or the cave where in primordial
+condition he won his food by his own hands from the uncut forests and
+the unfarmed waters.  As family policeman he had no incentive to
+accumulations of food, clothing, or luxuries.  These involved added
+police responsibilities and enlarged the temptations of his neighbors,
+both men and animals.
+
+Later, his family becomes a tribe.  In combination the duties of
+protection for the common good take on a larger view.  The village, the
+walled city and the armed state naturally follow.  Each stage of
+communal growth reduces the number of men set apart for defence or
+police duty.  There is a corresponding increase in the common store of
+human possessions and human happinesses.
+
+From states grow nations, then empires, until but a small fraction of
+the people is engaged in any way in aggressive or defensive warfare, or
+even police work or the determination or enforcement of laws of justice
+as between individuals, cities, states, or communities of any sort.
+
+The individual club at the mouth of the cave protecting the family has
+become for England a surrounding line of steel ships; for the United
+States, of 100,000,000 people, a mere outline of a military defensive
+organization, to be filled in when needed.  But for a few communities
+in the world that individual club has become a national armory, with
+human energies perfecting the most destructive machinery of warfare,
+that aggression may be carried on against neighbors, and territory
+expanded for purposes of national government and the increment of
+national wealth.
+
+The twentieth century has been distinguished by a call to the
+humanities; a summons to a larger brotherhood.  This has been the
+meaning of the clashes of the classes within all growing
+nations--Germany, Russia, the United States.  All that outcry of
+humanity against mere commercialism, against the mere financial
+exploitation of man and his labor, in this age takes on a larger
+meaning.
+
+In great wars material things go back; but the man goes to the front;
+and the victorious survivors make a newer and broader human creation--a
+new world with a new spirit.
+
+The world has been seeking a solution of many social problems.  They
+instantly disappear as dissolved in the hot cauldron of war.  In the
+settlement of peace following, they are found precipitated in the fired
+solution, refined, clarified,--"settled."
+
+To-day all social problems are merged in the greater problem of
+national existence.  Alliances and a larger nationality become
+necessities.  Man comes forth in a larger citizenship--a citizen of the
+whole world.  There is, there can be, no other solution, no other
+universal peace.  From this war must follow a world federation and
+international citizenship.
+
+The first recognition of the brotherhood of nations may arise under the
+Monroe Doctrine.  While this doctrine primarily is one for our national
+defense, it should properly embrace the defense of both North and South
+America, any aggression from the other side of the ocean to be unitedly
+resented on this side.
+
+The increasing responsibility of nations for their fellow nations may
+be illustrated by the case of Cuba.  The United States heard the cry of
+the Cubans under Spanish rule, turned out the Spanish rulers, and gave
+Cuba over to the Cubans.  In the same spirit the United States, finding
+itself in possession of the Philippines, is now attempting to develop
+them not for the United States but for the Filipinos.
+
+Lastly, we have the example of President Wilson, who has decreed that
+government by assassination in the countries to the south of us must
+cease, and that the United States will not recognize any government
+thus set up in Mexico.
+
+It is, however, not yet incumbent upon any nation, as upon individuals,
+to say to its neighbor, "You shall not arm; you shall not build a war
+machine of aggression; your offense against one is an offense against
+all; your military invasion against one for purposes of expansion or
+self-aggrandizement will be resented by all."
+
+Until we have practical application of a world-wide police in
+maintenance of the peace of nations, not alone by international
+agreement, which can be broken, but by agreement and international
+police-enforcement, so that it cannot be broken, there can be no
+universal peace.
+
+We are now approaching that time.
+
+There is no more reason why aggregations of people should have the
+right of murder, destruction, piracy, and pillage, than that
+individuals should have such right.
+
+This is just a simple, practical question in human advancement.  The
+world should now be big enough to grasp and effectively deal with it.
+The true meaning of this war is, therefore, human progress: humanity
+taking on larger responsibilities--the whole world answering the
+question, "Am I my brother's keeper?" with a thunderous, "Aye! we are
+one and all our brother's keeper, and we may well keep the peace of the
+world!"
+
+There is no question, national or international, no question of the
+individual or collection of individuals, which cannot be settled by the
+laws which belong in the human heart.  Such laws may be called
+spiritual or natural, divine or human; they are one and the same.
+
+Moses wrote no new law on the tables of stone on Mount Sinai.  The laws
+were before the tables of stone, and before the creation of the
+mountain itself.  It was only for the people to hear and to do.
+
+It is the same to-day.  The laws of brotherhood--brotherhood of
+individuals, brotherhood of nations, or aggregations of
+individuals--are unchanged and unchangeable.  It is only for the world
+to hear and to do.
+
+The doctrine that war is a biological necessity must go by the board.
+The teaching that war is needed to harden men and nations must be
+placed in the realm of pagan fiction.
+
+If war is a necessity for man, it is a necessity for woman.  If it is
+good for men, it is good for children.  If it is good for nations, it
+is good for states.  If it is good for states, it is certainly good for
+cities.  If it is good for peoples, it is good for individuals.
+
+War is Hell, and from Hell.  Hell may not be abolished, but it may be
+regulated.
+
+Wars may not be abolished from the human heart, but they may be
+restrained from breaking forth to the destruction of the innocent and
+the guiltless.
+
+There is only one practical way to do this, and that is to have nations
+under restraint, just as nations have states and cities under
+restraint.  Then international courts of justice may perform the same
+work national courts now perform in respect to differences between
+states.
+
+Man has come up from the individual, or dual, unit through family and
+tribal relation, the walled city, the policed state, into the armed
+nation.  He is now steadily stepping forth into the world as ruler of
+himself, the creator of his own government, the heir and sovereign of
+the world.  He can step into the kingdom of manhood suffrage or
+government only so far as the rights of his fellow men are recognized.
+Evil holds its own destruction, and nations that live by the sword
+perish by the sword.
+
+For the United States to rush into the maelstrom of war, with
+organization of armies and the building of armaments, is to invite its
+own destruction.
+
+For just one hundred years the North American continent has held the
+practical example of the impotency of the war-spirit where there is no
+war machinery.
+
+By the Bush memorandum of agreement one hundred years ago it was
+provided that there should be no guns, forts, or naval ships on the
+greatest national boundary line of the world--4000 miles across the
+American continent between the United States and Canada.  Nowhere else
+in the world have armed men attempted invasion, and yet provoked no
+war, no reprisal.  What might have been the relations between the
+United States and Canada when the "Fenians" armed in New England and
+attempted a raid across the border, if there had been armies and
+fortifications on that border?
+
+How securely now dwells in Canada $100,000,000 of the Bank of England
+reserve gold!  When German representatives in the United States talk of
+Germany's right to invade Canada and get that gold.  Uncle Sam only
+smiles and frowns.  And the smile and the frown are potential.  That
+boundary has been consecrated to peace; and what would be thought of
+the proposal, did Germany command the seas, that Uncle Sam accept some
+money or promises to pay and permit the German armies to go through,
+according to the proposal to Belgium?
+
+In an age which has abolished human slavery, broken the walls of China,
+which is bringing the yellow races into the labor and white light of
+civilization, which has made Germany a nation, and spanned a continent
+with the human voice so that Boston talks with San Francisco, is it too
+much to expect that it can bring the boon of an international
+civilization, abolishing national wars?
+
+Indeed, it is right at our doors if the United States would only
+welcome it and join it, instead of preparing to invite the old-world
+barbarism of national warfare by planning military defenses and naval
+fleets.
+
+Did anybody ever hear before of ten nations, and nearly a billion
+people, at war, and all declaring that they are warring for purposes of
+peace; and may there not yet be that universal peace by reason of this
+war, and the war's _alliances_?
+
+Suppose that, either before or after the nations of Europe lay down
+their arms, universal disarmament is assented to, and the peace of the
+world is entrusted to an international tribunal, which takes such part
+of the armies and navies as it may need to enforce its decrees, the
+balance so far as not needed for local police duty to be put back into
+industry or laid on the shelf, and all border fortifications ordered
+dismantled or turned into public recreation grounds--is it too much to
+expect in this Age?
+
+What would be simpler than, in the end, to find fortified Heligoland,
+not back in the hands of England, but the naval base of a Hague
+Tribunal enforcing international peace?
+
+
+
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+The Project Gutenberg eBook, The Audacious War, by Clarence W. Barron
+
+
+This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with
+almost no restrictions whatsoever.  You may copy it, give it away or
+re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included
+with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org
+
+
+
+
+
+Title: The Audacious War
+
+
+Author: Clarence W. Barron
+
+
+
+Release Date: April 5, 2006  [eBook #18125]
+
+Language: English
+
+Character set encoding: ISO-646-US (US-ASCII)
+
+
+***START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE AUDACIOUS WAR***
+
+
+E-text prepared by Al Haines
+
+
+
+THE AUDACIOUS WAR
+
+by
+
+CLARENCE W. BARRON
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+Boston and New York
+Houghton Mifflin Company
+The Riverside Press Cambridge
+1915
+Copyright, 1914 and 1915, by the Boston News Bureau Company
+Copyright, 1915, by Clarence W. Barron
+All Rights Reserved
+Published February 1915
+
+THIRD IMPRESSION
+
+
+
+
+  IF!
+
+  Suppose 't were done!
+  The lanyard pulled on every shotted gun;
+  Into the wheeling death-clutch sent
+  Each millioned armament,
+  To grapple there
+  On land, on sea and under, and in air!
+  Suppose at last 't were come--
+  Now, while each bourse and shop and mill is dumb
+  And arsenals and dockyards hum,--
+  Now all complete, supreme,
+  That vast, Satanic dream!--
+
+  Each field were trampled, soaked,
+  Each stream dyed, choked,
+  Each leaguered city and blockaded port
+  Made famine's sport;
+  The empty wave
+  Made reeling dreadnought's grave;
+  Cathedral, castle, gallery, smoking fell
+  'Neath bomb and shell;
+  In deathlike trance
+  Lay industry, finance;
+  Two thousand years'
+  Bequest, achievement, saving, disappears
+  In blood and tears,
+  In widowed woe
+  That slum and palace equal know,
+  In civilization's suicide,--
+  What served thereby, what satisfied?
+  For justice, freedom, right, what wrought?
+  Naught!--
+
+  Save, after the great cataclysm, perhap
+  On the world's shaken map
+  New lines, more near or far,
+  Binding to king or czar
+  In festering hate
+  Some newly vassaled state;
+  And passion, lust and pride made satiate;
+  And just a trace
+  Of lingering smile on Satan's face!
+      --_Boston News Bureau Poet_.
+
+
+This poem has been called the great poem of the war.  It was written
+just preceding the war, and published August 1 by the "Boston News
+Bureau."  Of it, and its author, Bartholomew P. Griffin, the following
+was written by Rev. Francis G. Peabody: "The English poets, Bridges,
+Kipling, Austin, and Noyes, have all tried to meet the need and all
+have lamentably failed.  I am proud not only that an American, but that
+a Harvard man, should have risen to the occasion."
+
+
+
+
+PREFACE
+
+The Scotch have this proverb: "War brings poverty.  Poverty brings
+peace.  Peace brings prosperity.  Prosperity brings pride.  And pride
+brings war again."  Shall the world settle down to the faith that there
+is no redemption from an everlasting round of pride, war, poverty,
+peace, prosperity, pride, and war again?
+
+But it was not primarily to settle, or even study this problem that I
+crossed the ocean and the English Channel in winter.  As a journalist
+publishing the _Wall Street Journal_, the _Boston News Bureau_, and the
+_Philadelphia News Bureau_, and directing news-gathering for the
+banking and financial communities, I deemed it my duty to ascertain at
+close hand the financial factors in this war, and the financial results
+therefrom.
+
+I found myself on the other side, not only in the domain of the finance
+encircling this war, but unexpectedly in close touch with diplomatic
+and government circles.  The whole of the war, its commercial causes,
+its financial and military forces, its tremendous human sacrifices, the
+conflicting principles of government, and the world-wide issues
+involved, all lay out in clear facts and figures after I had gathered
+by day and night from what appeared at first to be a tangled web.
+
+I learned who made this war, and why at this time and for what
+purposes, present and prospective; and from facts that could not be set
+down categorically in papers of state.  No papers, "white," "gray," or
+"yellow," could present a picture of the war in its inception and the
+reasons therefor.
+
+There is no powerful organization over nations to keep the peace of
+Europe or of the world, as nations are in organization over states, and
+states over cities, to insure peace and justice, without strife or
+human sacrifice.
+
+The immediate causes of this war, and I believe they have not before
+been presented on this side of the ocean, are connected with commercial
+treaties, protective tariffs, and financial progress.
+
+It may be wondered that in our country, which is the home of the
+protective tariff system and boasts its great prosperity therefrom,
+there has been as yet no presentation of the business causes beneath
+this war.  Our great journalists are trained to find interesting,
+picturesque, and saleable news features from big events.  Details of
+war's atrocities and destructions are to most people of the greatest
+human interest, and rightly so.  As a country we have no international
+policy, and European politics and policies have never interested us.
+
+Germany is buttressed by tariffs and commercial treaties on every side.
+Years ago I was told in Europe that the commercial treaties wrested
+from France in 1871 were of more value to Germany than the billion
+dollars of indemnity she took as her price to quit Paris.  But I did
+not realize until I was abroad this winter how European countries had
+warred by tariffs, and that Germany and Russia were preparing for a
+great clash at arms over the renewal of commercial and tariff treaties
+which expire within two years, and which had been forced by Germany
+upon Russia during the Japanese War.
+
+German "Kultur" means German progress, commercially and financially.
+German progress is by tariffs and commercial treaties.  Her armies, her
+arms, and her armaments, are to support this "Kultur" and this progress.
+
+I believe I have told the story as it has never been told before.  But
+the facts cannot be drawn forth and properly set in review without some
+presentation of the spirit of the peoples of the European nations.
+
+If all the nations of Europe were of one language, the spirit, the soul
+of each in its distinctive characteristics might stand out even more
+prominently than to-day.
+
+Then we could see even more clearly the spirit of brotherhood and
+nationality that stands out resplendent as the soul of France.  We
+should see the spirit of empire and of trade, interknit with
+administrative justice, as the soul of Great Britain.  We should see
+Germany an uncouth giant in the center of Europe, viewing all about him
+with suspicion, and demanding to know why, as the youngest, sturdiest,
+best organized, and hardest working European nation, he is not entitled
+to overseas or world empire.
+
+But few persons on this side have comprehended the relation of this
+great war to the greatest commercial prizes in the world; the shores of
+the Mediterranean, Asia Minor, with its Bagdad Railroad headed for the
+Persian Gulf, Mesopotamia with its great oil-fields, undeveloped and a
+source of power for the recreation of Palestine and all the lands
+between the Mediterranean, the Indian Ocean, and Asia.
+
+The greatest study for Americans to-day is the spirit of nations as
+shown in this war, and great lessons for the United States may be found
+in the finance, business, patriotism, and justice that stand forth in
+the British Empire as never before.  She is rolling up a tremendous
+war-power within her empire and throughout Europe, encircling the
+German war-power.  But she is likewise looking to her own people and
+her own workers, filling her own factories and every laboring hand to
+the full that she may keep her business and profits at home, and with
+her business and profits and accumulated capital and income prosecute
+the greatest war of history.
+
+She is not unmindful in any respect of what the war may send her way.
+In the breaking-away and the breaking-up of Turkey, she sees a clear
+field for Egypt, the realization of the dream of Cecil Rhodes of the
+development of the whole of Africa by a Cape to Cairo Railroad, and she
+sees her own empire and peoples belting the world in power, usefulness,
+and justice, and with a sweep and scope for enterprise and development
+beyond all the previous dreams of this generation.
+
+The United States, with hundreds of millions of banking reserves
+released and giving base for a business expansion double any we have
+had before, seems suddenly paralyzed in its business activities and,
+comprehending only that the loaf of bread is a cent higher and a pound
+of cotton a few cents lower, it is wondering on which side of its bread
+the butter is to fall.
+
+Meanwhile, it talks politics, asks if prosperity here is to come during
+or after the war; and having little comprehension of the meaning of the
+national throbs that on the other side of the globe are pulsating the
+world into a new era of light, liberty, and expansion by individual
+labor, it refuses to take up its daily home-task and go forward.
+
+In the hope that these pages may be useful to my fellow countrymen in
+giving them the facts of this war, its commercial causes, its financial
+progress, its sacrifice in humanity,--sacrifice that could not be
+demanded but for a greater future,--these papers are taken, as
+completed in my financial publications in this month of February, and
+placed before the reading community in book form, as requested in
+hundreds of personal letters.
+
+They were never conceived or written with any idea of their permanent
+preservation.  They were prepared for the banking community, which
+demands news-facts and figures discriminatingly presented.  The banker
+wants the truth; he will make his own argument and reach his own
+conclusions.
+
+The reader will readily see that these chapters are day-to-day issues
+aiming to present that news from the standpoint of finance.  But under
+all sound finance must be primarily the truth of humanity.  They do not
+claim to be from beginning to end a harmonious book-presentation of the
+war, but it is believed that they contain the essential fundamental
+war-facts; and the aim was to present them in most condensed expression.
+
+They cover the first six months of this most Audacious War.  Whether it
+is to continue for another six months or another sixteen months is not
+so material as the character of the peace and what is to follow.
+
+No greater problem can be placed before the world than that of how the
+peace of nations may be maintained.  Having cleared my own mind upon
+this subject, I submit it in the final chapter, which naturally follows
+after that treating of the lessons for the United States from this war.
+
+Only in an international organization, with power to make decrees of
+peace and enforce them, and with insurance of powers above those of all
+dissenters, can we find the peace of nations as we have found the peace
+of cities.  This Audacious War has forced such an alliance as can yield
+this power.  Its transfer to the support of an International tribunal
+can make and keep the peace of Europe and eventually of the world.
+
+Then may the earth cease to be, in history, that steady round of
+Prosperity, Pride, and War.
+
+C. W. Barron.
+
+February 15, 1915.
+
+
+
+
+    CONTENTS
+
+
+    I.  THE WORLD'S GREATEST CONTEST
+   II.  TARIFFS AND COMMERCE THE WAR CAUSES
+  III.  THE POLITICAL CAUSES OF THE WAR
+   IV.  PEACE PROPOSALS
+    V.  FRANCE AND THE FRENCH
+   VI.  THE POSITION OF FRANCE
+  VII.  FRENCH FINANCE
+ VIII.  THE BELGIAN SACRIFICE
+   IX.  RUSSIA AND THE RUSSIANS
+    X.  THE ENGLISH POSITION
+   XI.  ENGLISH WAR FORCES
+  XII.  ENGLISH WAR FINANCE
+ XIII.  GERMAN RESOURCES
+  XIV.  IS IT THE PEOPLE'S WAR?
+   XV.  THE GERMAN POSITION
+  XVI.  THE LESSONS FOR AMERICA
+ XVII.  WHAT PEACE SHOULD MEAN
+
+
+
+
+THE AUDACIOUS WAR
+
+
+CHAPTER I
+
+THE WORLD'S GREATEST CONTEST
+
+The Censorship--The Warship "Audacious"--Mine or Torpedo?--The Battle
+Line--War by Gasolene Motors--The Boys from Canada--The Audacity of it.
+
+The war of 1914 is not only the greatest war in history but the
+greatest in the political and economic sciences.  Indeed, it is the
+greatest war of all the sciences, for it involves all the known
+sciences of earth, ocean, and the skies.
+
+To get the military, the political, and especially the financial flavor
+of this war, to study its probable duration and its financial
+consequences, was the object of a trip to England and France from which
+the writer has recently returned.
+
+One can hear "war news" from the time he leaves the American coast and
+begins to pick up the line of the British warships--England's far-flung
+battle line--until he returns to the dock, but thorough investigation
+would convince a trained news man that most of this war gossip is
+erroneous.
+
+This war is so vast and wide, from causes so powerful and deep, and
+will be so far-reaching in its effects that no ill-considered or
+partial statements concerning it should be made by any responsible
+writer.
+
+The difficulty of obtaining the exact facts by any ordinary methods is
+very great.  There is a strict supervision of all news, and to insure
+that by news sources no "aid or comfort" is given to the enemy, a vast
+amount of pertinent, legitimate, and harmless news and data is
+necessarily suppressed.  The censors are military men and not news men,
+and act from the standpoint that a million facts had better be
+suppressed than that a single report should be helpful to the enemy.
+Only in Russia are reports of news men from the firing line allowed.
+
+One hears abroad continually of the battle of the Marne, of the battle
+of the Aisne, of the contest at Ypres, and the fight on the Yser, but
+no outside man has yet been permitted to describe any of these in
+detail, or to give the strategy, beginning, end, or boundaries of them,
+or even the distinct casualties therefrom.  Indeed, it is doubtful if
+the official histories, when they are written, can do this, for these
+are the emphasized portions of one great and continuous battle that
+went on for more than one hundred days.
+
+To illustrate the strength of the hand on the English war news, it may
+be noted that there is no mention permitted in the English press of
+such a ship as the "Audacious."  Yet American papers with photographs
+of the "Audacious" as she sinks in the ocean are sold in London and on
+the Continent.  Outside of London not ten per cent of the people know
+anything concerning this boat or her finish.
+
+This word "finish" would be disputed in any newspaper or well-informed
+financial office in London where it is daily declared that although the
+"Audacious" met with an accident, her guns have been raised and will go
+aboard another ship of the same size, purchased, or just being
+finished, and named the "Audacious."  Indeed, I was informed on "good
+authority" that the "Audacious" was afloat, had been towed into
+Birkenhead and that the repairs to her bottom were nearly finished.
+You can hear similar stories wherever the "accident" is discussed.  I
+have heard it so many times that I ought to believe it.  Yet if one
+hundred people separately and individually make assurances concerning
+something of which they have no personal knowledge, it does not go down
+with a true news man.  I was able to run across a man who saw the
+affair of the "Audacious."  He laughed at the stories of shallow water
+and raised guns.  His position was such, both then and thereafter, that
+I was sure that he knew and told me the truth.
+
+Later I learned that the "Audacious" was too far off the Irish coast to
+permit of talk of shallow water, and that neither guns nor 30,000-ton
+warships are raised from fifty-fathom depths.
+
+Yet I am willing to narrate what has not been permitted publication in
+England, and I think not elsewhere: that the mines about Lough Swilly,
+along the Scotch and Irish coasts, and in the Irish Sea, were laid with
+the assistance of English fishing-boats flying the English flag.  These
+boats had been captured by the Germans and impressed into this work.
+
+There are also stories of Irish boats and Norwegian trawlers in this
+work, but I secured no confirmation of such reports.
+
+It is still unsettled in British Admiralty circles as to whether the
+"Audacious" came in contact with a mine or torpedo from a German
+submarine.  Two of her crew report that they saw the wake of a torpedo.
+Reports that the periscope of a submarine showed above the water I have
+reason to reject.
+
+English reports were suppressed--the admiralty claimed this right,
+since there was no loss of life--in the belief that if the ship was
+torpedoed by a submarine, the Germans would give out the first report,
+and thereby be of assistance in determining the cause.  But to-day the
+Germans have their doubt as to where the "Audacious" is, and as to
+whether or not she was ever really sunk.
+
+Expert opinion is divided in authoritative circles in England as to the
+cause of the disaster; but more than 400 mines have been swept up along
+the Irish and Scotch coasts by the English mine sweepers.
+
+While upon this subject, I ought to narrate that the study of this
+topic has convinced me that the Germans have a long task if they hope
+within a reasonable number of months to reduce by submarine torpedo
+practice the efficiency of the English navy to a basis that will
+warrant German warships coming forth to battle.
+
+Every battleship is protected by four destroyers.  Submarines, when
+detected, are the most easily destroyed craft.  They have no protection
+against even a well-directed rifle bullet.  Their whole protection is
+that of invisibility.  Their plan of operation is to reach a position
+during the night, whence in the early morning they can single out an
+unprotected warship or cruiser not in motion, and launch against her
+side a well-directed torpedo, before being discovered.
+
+The place for England's battleships is where they are: in the harbors
+with their protecting nets down until they are called for in battle.
+In motion or action, submarines have little show against them.
+
+The Japanese at Port Arthur found that protecting nets picked up many
+torpedoes and submarines.  Since that time, torpedoes have been made
+with cutting heads to pierce steel nets encircling the warships, but
+their effectiveness has not so far been practically demonstrated.
+
+It is Kitchener's idea to keep the enemy guessing.  Therefore he was
+rather pleased than otherwise when the story of Russians coming through
+England from Archangel was told all over the world.  The War Office
+winked at the story and certainly had no objection to the Germans
+getting a good dose of it.  I think that story might have been helpful
+at the time when the Allies were at their weakest, but they do not now
+need Russians, or stories of Russians, from Archangel.
+
+The story must also go by the board that a submarine north of Ireland
+meant either a new type of boat that could go so far from Germany, or
+an unknown base nearer Scotland.
+
+Submarines as now built could go from Germany around the British Isles
+and then across the Atlantic--in fair weather.
+
+The eastern boundary of France divides itself into four very nearly
+equal sections.  Italy and Switzerland are the lower quarters of this
+boundary line; and of the upper quarters Belgium is the larger and
+Germany the smaller.  The southern half of the German quarter boundary
+is a mountain range and on the open sections stand the great
+fortifications of France and Germany, regarded by both countries as
+practically impregnable.  The defence of France on the Belgian frontier
+was the treaty which guaranteed the neutrality of the smaller country.
+
+When Germany's conquering hosts came through Belgium, the war soon
+became a battle of human beings rather than of fortifications.  Neither
+the French nor the Germans had learned from practical experience the
+modern art of fighting human legions in ground trenches, but both sides
+quickly betook themselves to this rabbit method of warfare.
+
+To-day from Switzerland to the North Sea is a double wall of 4,000,000
+men, all fighting, not only for their own existence but for the
+existence of their nationality--their national ideals.  They are
+protected by aeroplanes, flying above, that keep watch of any large
+movements.
+
+They are backed by 4,000,000 men in reserve and training who keep the
+trenches filled with fighting men, as 10,000 to 20,000 daily retire to
+mother earth, to the hospitals, or to the camps of the imprisoned.  On
+the North Sea and the English Channel they are supported by fleets of
+battleships, cruisers, submarines, and torpedo boat destroyers that
+occasionally "scrap" with each other, the German boats now and then
+attacking the English coast and harbors and the English boats now and
+then assisting to mow down the German troops when they approach too
+near the coast.  But the great dread and key to this naval warfare is
+the modern submarine.
+
+Submarines, aeroplanes, and motor busses are three elements of warfare
+never before put to the test; and the greatest of these thus far is the
+gasolene motor-car.  By this alone Germany may be defeated.  France and
+England are rich in gasolene motor power, and supplies from America are
+open to them.  A year ago there were less than 90,000 motor-cars in
+Germany, and Prince Henry started to encourage motoring to remedy this,
+but the Germans are slow to respond in sport.  Indeed they know little
+of sport as the English understand it, of sportsman ethics or the sense
+of fair play in either sport or war.  They do not comprehend the
+English applause for the captain of the "Emden" and stand aghast at the
+idea that he would be received as a hero in England.  When a daring
+aeroplane flier in the performance of his duty has met with mishap and,
+landed on German soil, he is not welcomed as a hero.  He is struck and
+kicked.
+
+The German is not to be blamed.  It is the way he has been educated to
+"assert himself," as the Germans phrase it.  Indeed, when the captain
+of the "Emden" was taken prisoner and was congratulated by the
+Australian commander for his gallant defense, he was so taken aback
+that he had to walk away and think it over.  He returned to thank his
+adversary for his complimentary remarks.  With true German scientific
+instinct he had to find his defeat in a physical cause, remarking, "It
+was fortunate for you that your first shot took away my speaking tubes."
+
+The English are sports in war,--too sporty in fact.  General Joffre
+warned General French over and over again, "Your officers are too
+audacious; you will soon have none to command," and his words proved
+true.  The English officers felt that the rules of the game called upon
+them to lead their men.  They became targets for the guns of the foe,
+until one of the present embarrassments in England is the unprecedented
+loss of officers.
+
+This has now been changed and Kitchener insists that both officers and
+men shall regard themselves as property of the Empire, that the
+exposure of a single life to unnecessary hazard is a breach of
+discipline.  For this reason Victoria Crosses are not numerous, less
+than two dozen having been conferred thus far; and it has been quietly
+announced that no Victoria Crosses will be conferred for single acts of
+bravery or where only one life is involved.  It must be team work and
+results affecting many.
+
+For this reason also it has been decreed that the 33,000 Canadians in
+training at Salisbury Plain shall not be put in the front until they
+have learned discipline in place of the American initiative.
+
+These Canadian boys receive their home pay of four shillings, or $1 per
+day, while the English Tommy gets one quarter of this amount.  The
+Canadians are fine fellows, feeling their independence and anxious to
+be on the firing line, but the War Office recognizes that soldierly
+independence cannot be allowed in this war.  It is not improbable that
+the Canadian troops will eventually be dispersed that their strong
+individual initiative may be thoroughly harnessed under the
+organization before they are trusted in the trenches.  They are not to
+be permitted to go there to be shot at, but to use their splendid
+physiques, fighting abilities, and patriotism--more British than the
+English themselves--in strict organization.
+
+This is not to be an audacious war on the part of the Allies.  It is
+first a defensive war in which the Germans are the heaviest losers.  On
+the part of the Germans it is an audacious war and its very audacity
+has astounded the whole world.  But Germany never meant to war against
+the world collectively.  That was the accident of her bad diplomacy.
+
+The audaciousness of Prussian war conceptions began in the latter part
+of the last century.  They did not grow out of the war with the French
+in 1870, for Bismarck's legacy to the German nation was a warning
+against any war with Russia.  The German scheme was concocted by the
+successor of Bismarck himself, none other than Kaiser William II.  He
+planned a steady growth of German power that would first vanquish the
+Slav of southeastern Europe and give Germany control through
+Constantinople and Asia Minor to the Persian gulf; then, as opportunity
+arose, a crushing of France and repression of Russia; and the overthrow
+of the British empire; and then the end of the Monroe Doctrine, to be
+followed by American tariffs dictated from Germany.
+
+This seems so audacious a program as to be almost beyond comprehension
+in America.  Yet it will be made clear in the next chapter.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER II
+
+TARIFFS AND COMMERCE THE WAR CAUSES
+
+War with Russia was Inevitable--Finance and Tariffs made Germany
+great--Commercial War--How Germany loses in the United States--The
+Tariff Danger.
+
+
+For the causes of this most audacious war of 1914 one must study, not
+only Germany and her imperial policy, but most particularly her
+relations with Russia.  These relations are very little understood in
+America, but they become vital to us when open to public view.
+
+Disregarding all the counsels of Bismarck and the previous reigning
+Hohenzollerns, the present Kaiser has steadily offended Russia.  War
+with her within two years was inevitable, irrespective of any causes in
+relation to Servia.  Russia knew this and was diligently preparing for
+it.  Germany--the war party of Germany--knew it and with supreme
+audacity determined through Austria first to smash Servia and put the
+Balkan States and Turkey in alignment with herself for this coming war
+with Russia.
+
+Sergius Witte is one of the great statesmen of Russia.  He formulated
+the programme for the Siberian railroad and Russian Asiatic
+development.  The party of nobles opposed to him arranged that he
+should receive the humiliation of an ignoble peace with Japan, under
+which it was expected that Russia would have to pay a huge indemnity.
+
+But when Witte arrived at the naval station at Portsmouth, New
+Hampshire, to make the famous treaty with Japan, his first declaration
+was, "Not one kopeck for indemnity."  He won out and returned in
+triumph to Russia.
+
+But during the progress of the Japanese war Germany thrust her
+commercial treaties upon St. Petersburg.  Goods from Russia into
+Germany were taxed while German goods went under favorable terms into
+Russia, with the result that Russia has had a struggle now for ten
+years to keep her gold basis and her financial exchanges.
+
+It was Witte who was sent to Berlin to protest against these proposed
+treaties and secure more favorable terms.  Witte made his protest and
+refused to accept the German demands.  Then suddenly he received
+peremptory orders from the Czar to grant all the demands of Germany.
+The Czar declared Russia was in no condition to have trouble with
+Germany.  These commercial treaties expire within two years.  Russia
+many months back proposed the discussion of new terms.  Germany
+responded that the present treaties were satisfactory to her and he
+should call for their renewal.
+
+This meant either further humiliation to Russia or war.  Russia had
+already suffered the affront of being forced by Germany at the point of
+the bayonet to assent to the taking by Austria of Bosnia and
+Herzegovina in violation of the Treaty of Berlin.  The Czar realized
+many months ago that Russia must now fight for her commercial life.
+She would not, however, be ready for the war until 1916.
+
+Let Americans consider what this means--a German war over commercial
+tariffs--and see what, if successful in Europe, it would lead to.
+
+The German nation is a fighting unit under the dominion of Prussia, the
+greatest war state, not only of the empire, but of the world.  Having
+welded Germany by the Franco-Prussian war into a nation with unified
+tariffs, transportation, currency, and monetary systems, Prussia has
+been able to point to the war as the cause of the phenomenal prosperity
+of Germany.
+
+It is a popular fallacy in Germany that militarism makes the greatness
+of a nation.  Germany's prosperity did not begin with the war of 1870.
+This was only the beginning of German unity which made possible unified
+transportation and later unified finances and tariffs.  Several years
+after the war, France, which had paid an indemnity to Germany of a
+thousand million dollars, or five billion francs, was found, to the
+astonishment of Bismarck, more prosperous than Germany which had thus
+received the expenses of her military campaign and a dot of Spandau
+Tower war-reserve moneys.
+
+In 1875 came the great Reichsbank Act, which consolidated all the
+banking power of the empire.  Then came her scientific tariffs which
+put up the bars here, and let them down there, according as Germany
+needed export or import trade in any quarter of the earth.  The German
+people, on a soil poorer than that of France, worked hard and long
+hours for small wages.  But they worked scientifically and under the
+most intelligent protective tariff the world has ever seen.  In a
+generation they built up a foreign trade surpassing that of the United
+States and reaching $4,500,000,000 per annum.  By her rate of progress
+she was on the way to distance England, whose ports and business were
+open to her merchants without even the full English income tax.  She
+built the biggest passenger steamers ever conceived of and reached for
+the freight carrying trade of the world.  She mined in coal and iron
+and built solidly of brick and stone.  She put the world under tribute
+to her cheap and scientific chemistry.  She dug from great depths the
+only potash mines in the world and from half this potash she fertilized
+her soil until it laughed with abundant harvests.
+
+The other half she sold outside so that her own potash stood her free
+and a profit besides.  No nation ever recorded the progress that
+Germany made after the inauguration of her bank act and her scientific
+tariffs.  The government permitted no waste of labor, no
+disorganization of industry.  Capital and labor could each combine, but
+there must be no prolonged strikes, no waste, no loss; they must work
+harmoniously together and for the upbuilding of the empire.
+
+Germany did not want war except as means to an end.  She wanted the
+fruits of her industry.  She wanted her people, her trade, and her
+commerce to expand over the surface of the earth, but to be still
+German and to bring home the fruit of German industry.
+
+Germany has been at war--commercial war--with the whole world now for a
+generation, and in this warfare she has triumphed.  Her enterprise, her
+industry, and her merchants have spread themselves over the surface of
+the earth to a degree little realized until her diplomacy again slipped
+and the present war followed--such a war as was planned for by nobody
+and not expected even by herself.  She was giving long credits and
+dominating the trade of South America.  She had given free trade
+England a fright by the stamp, "Made in Germany."  She was pushing
+forward through Poland into Russia to the extent that her merchants
+dominated Warsaw and were spreading out even over the Siberian
+railroad.  Her finance was intertwined with that of London and Paris.
+
+In the United States she was the greatest loser.  Here taxes were
+lowest and freedom greatest.  German blood flowed in the veins of
+20,000,000 Americans and not one fourth of them could she call her own.
+The biggest newspaper publisher in America, William Randolph Hearst,
+figured that New York was one of the big German cities of the world.
+He turned his giant presses to capture the German sentiment.  He spent
+tens of thousands of dollars upon German cable news, devoting at times
+a whole page to cable presentations from Europe which he thought would
+interest Germans.  But the investment proved fruitless; he found there
+was in America no German sentiment such as he had reckoned upon.  He
+could not increase his circulation, for the German-Americans seemed
+little concerned as to what happened in Berlin or Bavaria.
+
+Prussia learned what Hearst learned, that Germans were soon lost in the
+United States.  She studied this exodus and the wage question and by
+various arts and organizations arrested the German emigration to
+America.  She saw to it that employment at home was more stable.  It
+was figured that if the German emigration could be centralized under
+the German eagle it would be to her advantage.  The question was where
+to get land that could be made German.  Europe has for some years
+expected a German dash in Patagonia, and the Europeans outside of
+Germany have taken very kindly of late years to the Monroe Doctrine.
+In Africa and the islands of the sea the German colonial policy has not
+been a success.  Dr. Dernburg as colonial secretary has many a time
+stood up in the Reichstag and warned the Germans that the home military
+system and rules were not adaptable to colonization in foreign parts;
+that Germans must adapt themselves to foreign countries and not attempt
+at first to make their manners the standard in the colonies they
+undertook to dominate.
+
+While German colonies have not yet passed beyond the experimental
+stage, German tariffs and German commerce have been great successes.
+
+The population of Russia is 166,000,000 people.  This is the latest
+figure I gathered from those intimate with the government at St.
+Petersburg.  This is just 100,000,000 more than Germany.  Germany
+thinks she must trade to her own advantage with the people now crowding
+her eastern border.
+
+The example of America in putting up tariff bars against "Made in
+Germany" has many advocates in England and in the rest of the world.
+
+When France, only a few years ago, was angered that Italy should sign
+up in "triple alliance" with Austria and Germany, she did not dare to
+attack Italy with arms, but she did attack Italy by tariff measures,
+and for a time Italy and France fought--by tariffs.
+
+What might be the position of Germany if the American protective tariff
+system were expanded over the earth?  In the view of some people
+tariffs, taxation, and armaments go hand in hand.  There is a town in
+Prussia that finished payment only twenty years ago on the indemnity
+Napoleon exacted from it.
+
+Can a country afford to develop an industrial system dependent upon an
+outside world and then suddenly find the outside world closed by tariff
+barriers?
+
+When an American ambassador protested against Bismarck's discriminatory
+treatment of American pork, the great chancellor asked, "What have you
+to talk with?  You have no army or navy."  "No," said the American
+ambassador, "but we have the ability to build them as big as anybody.
+Do you wish to tempt us?"  "No," said the German chancellor, "and your
+goods shall not be discriminated against."
+
+Dr. Dernburg has given the key to the German colonial military, tariff,
+and financial policy.  German unity in tariffs and transportation has
+made German prosperity, and Dr. Dernburg, her former colonial secretary
+and now in New York, says the mouth of the Rhine and the channel ports
+must be free to Germany and that Belgium must come into tariff and
+transportation union with Germany.  Belgium is being taxed, tariffed,
+pounded, and impounded into the German empire.
+
+There is some difference in size between Belgium and Russia, but no
+difference in principle with respect to their German relations.
+
+"World power or downfall," Bernhardi put it.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER III
+
+THE POLITICAL CAUSES OF THE WAR
+
+A State with no Morals--A Peace Treaty sundered--Where Germany fails--A
+Thunderbolt.
+
+
+Sending his little expedition to China the Kaiser said:--
+
+"When you encounter the enemy you will defeat him; no quarter shall be
+given, no prisoners shall be taken.  Let all who fall into your hands
+be at your mercy.  Just as the Huns one thousand years ago, under the
+leadership of Attila, gained a reputation in virtue of which they still
+live in historical tradition, so may the name of Germany become known
+in such a manner in China that no Chinaman will ever again dare to look
+askance at a German."
+
+Belgium was made an example of.  According to the German idea she
+should have accepted money and not stood in the way of German progress.
+
+German military progress is allied with German commercial progress.  It
+is a mistake in the conception of Germany to imagine that she wars for
+the purpose of war or for the development and training of her men.
+
+The first principle of German "Kultur" as respects the state is that
+the sole business of the government is to advance the interests of the
+state.  No laws having been formulated in respect to the business of a
+state, the government is without moral responsibility, and the laws
+applicable to individual action do not apply to the state.  Individuals
+may do wrong, but the state cannot do wrong.  Individuals may steal and
+be punished therefor, but the state cannot steal.  It is its business
+to expand and to appropriate.  Individuals may murder and be punished
+for the crime, but it is the business of the state to kill for state
+development or progress.
+
+The English-speaking conception of morality is that what applies to an
+individual in a community applies to the aggregate of the individuals,
+that the state is only the aggregate of the individuals exercising the
+natural human functions of government for law and order.
+
+This is entirely outside the German conception.  In the German
+conception a government comes down from above and not up from the
+people.  It is not the people who rule or govern, but the government
+from above rules the people, and the people must implicitly follow and
+obey; thus is national progress and human progress.  The whole of
+Germany believes in the government of the Kaiser: that law and war flow
+down through him and that neither can be questioned by the individual.
+Obedience, union, efficiency, progress, and progress through war, if
+necessary, are cardinal virtues.
+
+Germany does not desire war with Russia, but German progress requires
+the continuance of present tariff relations, and if war is a means to
+that desirable end, war is divine.
+
+The murder of the Crown Prince of Austria was an incident furnishing
+Germany and Austria opportunity to carry out their long-conceived
+programme for the extension of their influence through the growing
+state of Servia.
+
+A treaty had been arranged between Greece and Turkey, and was to have
+been signed in July, which would have settled many things in respect to
+Turkey and the Balkan states.  Roumania and Servia were in agreement
+concerning this great measure for peace in southeastern Europe.
+
+When all was ready for the final conference and the signatures, Austria
+intervened and announced her opposition.  Then suddenly followed the
+bombshell of the ultimatum to Servia, timed at the precise moment to
+stop the signing of this Turkish treaty.
+
+Austrian officials admitted privately as follows, and I have it
+directly from parties to the negotiations:--
+
+"We are satisfied that Servia would punish the murderers of Prince
+Ferdinand if we so requested.  We are satisfied she would apologize to
+Austria if we requested it.  But our aims go beyond.  We demand that
+instead of the proposed Turkish treaty the Balkan states shall come
+into union with Turkey under the influence of Austria.  To accomplish
+this we must accept no apology, but must punish Servia.  We are
+satisfied that Russia is in no financial or military position to
+interfere."
+
+Germany with its enormous spy system had secured copies of the
+confidential state papers of the Czar and transmitted them to Vienna.
+In these were warnings, statistics, and compilations showing all the
+financial and military weaknesses of Russia: that her great gold
+reserve had been largely loaned out and was not available cash on hand,
+as the world had been led to believe; that it would take eighteen
+months more of preparation to place her military forces in position to
+defend the country; that her arms and the factories to build them were
+not ready.
+
+The plans of Austria and Germany were to line up the Balkan states,
+under German political and trade influences, and then within two years
+to have it out with Russia and again impose the German tariffs upon
+her.  If France dared to come in, it would certainly be an attack, and
+Italy would, under the Triple Alliance, assist to defend Austria and
+Germany.  Defeating Russia, Germany could, at that time or later, crush
+France in the manner in which Bismarck had said she might eventually be
+crushed by Germany for Germany's progress.
+
+Then, having made more onerous tariff treaties with France than were
+exacted from her in 1870 and having extended German trade and military
+influence over Russia, Germany would be in a position with her navy to
+try out the long desired issue with Great Britain for the control of
+the seas.
+
+Admiral Von Tirpitz told the emperor that it must be at least two years
+more before the German navy would be able to try conclusions with
+England.
+
+The German plan was to take the European countries one at a time.  The
+German information was that every country except Germany was
+unprepared, and that information was true.  She was fully prepared
+except in her navy.
+
+One of the leaders among those great business Lords of England, who sit
+with the Commoners in business, but in the House of Lords as respects
+legislation, said to me when I spoke of the wonderful intelligence of
+Germany in research and data, scientific and political: "But, don't you
+think that the Germans had too much information and too little
+judgment?"
+
+In other words, they had a stomach full of facts but no capacity to
+digest them.  They knew as much about Ulster and perhaps more than
+London as respects facts and detailed information, but they were in no
+position to pass judgment upon Ulster or the unity of the British
+Empire the moment there was an attack from the outside.  The Germans
+have dealt in materialistic facts.  But with the spirit that moulds and
+makes history they are all awry.  With the Germans, individuals are
+units and are counted from the outside, never from the inside.  That is
+why her diplomacy is not only a failure, but offensive: it never
+differentiates among nations and peoples according to that which is
+within the mind and the heart of the people.
+
+The German Emperor directed the Austrian ultimatum to Servia, insisting
+upon stronger demands than were at first proposed.  Then, turning his
+back upon the scene, he was able to protest that he was not
+responsible.  Yet the published correspondence from every capital in
+Europe now shows that the German Emperor fenced off every attempt to
+get Austria to modify or postpone or discuss her demands.  Germany was
+ready for everything except the interference of Great Britain.
+
+A private telephone rang at five o'clock one morning in Berlin and an
+American lady was informed from a social quarter that "Something
+dreadful has happened."  "Something awful--something undreamed of."
+The American lady quickly asked, "Has the Kaiser been assassinated?" as
+the tone over the telephone indicated nothing less.
+
+The response was, "England has declared war!"
+
+That was the most unlooked-for step in all the German calculations.
+
+Every spy report, every diplomatic agency, military and civil, had
+reported that England was out of the running: Ireland in revolution,
+India in sedition, Canada, Australia, and South Africa just ready to
+break away from the British yoke.
+
+The conception of the British empire as a federation of free peoples
+governing themselves, under a constitutional monarchy, is something
+incomprehensible in the German idea of government.  The German idea is
+of colonies attached to and paying tribute to the crown, something to
+be ruled over, governed, taxed, and made to serve.
+
+Russia might go to war exposing in the field her weakness already
+spread out on paper by Russian authorities, with copies in Vienna and
+Berlin; but that England or Great Britain could or would fight at this
+time was an impossibility; although later England was to become "The
+vassal of Germany."
+
+And the wonderment of Germany has become the wonderment of the world.
+"Roll up," said Kitchener, and 2,000,000 men sprang to arms.  More than
+800,000 of them are on the Continent; 1,700,000 of them are in training.
+
+"Roll up," said Lloyd George, the Chancellor of the British Exchequer;
+and $1,700,000,000 of war loan is rolling into the British Treasury, a
+sum one half the national debt of England and nearly twice the national
+debt of the United States.
+
+If necessary, the number of men in arms will be doubled to 4,000,000
+and the enormous subscription just made to England's war loan will be
+doubled and quadrupled.
+
+The life of the empire as respects money and men is at stake, and no
+sacrifice is too great.  If treaties are "scraps of paper" and neutral
+states are to have no rights or protection, there is no safety in the
+world, no sacredness of contracts; the world is at an end and chaos
+reigns.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER IV
+
+PEACE PROPOSALS
+
+The Bagdad Railroad--The English Oil Concession--The German Alliance
+with Turkey--Austria the Hand of Germany--The Decay of Turkey--The New
+Map.
+
+
+How ridiculous are American peace proposals concerning the Audacious
+War of 1914 may be judged from this announcement which I am able to
+make:--
+
+The return of the French government from Bordeaux to Paris was
+determined upon from two points of view: safety and political
+necessity.  The French people were angered that Paris should have been
+deserted, but notwithstanding the political reasons, which were more
+forceful than the public will be permitted to know, the return would
+not have been undertaken had not the military authorities considered
+the move a safe one.  How safe will be evidenced by this--that at both
+Bordeaux and Paris this problem was before the authorities: "Events
+have now progressed so far that it is time for the Allies to consider
+what will be their terms of peace.  These terms must be divided into
+many classes, ranging from those in which only one of the Allies has an
+interest to those in which all have an interest.  Of course, the latter
+will be the most complex, and it is time now to begin with the
+complexities of the most far-reaching situation.  This is Mesopotamia
+and the Bagdad railroad."
+
+Now who in Washington knows anything about Mesopotamia or the Bagdad
+railroad?  Yet here is the key of the most far-reaching problem in any
+peace proposals.  It is because this matter can now be settled that the
+plunging of Turkey into the war by Enver Bey has made all Europe
+rejoice.  The Germans think Turkey is another 16 1/2-inch howitzer or
+"Jack Johnson" putting black smoke over the British empire.  The rest
+of Europe now knows the whole of Turkey is on the table, and the
+carving, it is believed, will be had with no plates extended from
+either Austria or Germany.  For the first time the Turkish problem can
+be really settled instead of patched.
+
+Some years ago I was astonished to learn in Europe that American
+banking interests, and American contracting and engineering firms in
+alliance therewith, had their eyes upon Asia Minor and the possibility
+of its development by American railroad enterprise.  I was astonished
+to learn that some people at Constantinople had authority for the use
+of the name of J. P. Morgan & Co.  Indeed, a railroad concession in
+Asia Minor, the details of which it is not now necessary to go into,
+had been arranged, I was told, and lacked only signatures.  The
+American people felt that the Germans were the little devils under the
+table who stayed the hand of the Sultan, and kept his pen off the
+parchment.  Never would the signature come down on that paper, although
+declared to have been many times promised.
+
+The English were, of course, vitally interested in any railroad
+concessions in Asia Minor as opening the route to the Persian Gulf and
+India.  Money talks with Turkey as nowhere else.  The Germans had made
+a great impression upon the Bosphorus.  Nobody at that point in the
+geography of the world could fail to see the wonderful commercial
+progress of the Germans and the military power that stood behind ready
+to back it up.
+
+A concession for a railroad from the Bosphorus to Bagdad and through
+Mesopotamia to the Persian Gulf finally went to Germany, and the
+signature of the Sultan was at the bottom of the paper.  There was, of
+course, the usual Oriental compromise, and the concession for the oil
+fields of Mesopotamia went to the English; but the signature of the
+Sultan is still lacking to that piece of paper.
+
+English statesmen announced that the Bagdad railroad was a purely
+private enterprise, financed in Germany by people associated with the
+Deutsche Bank.  They had later to confess that error.  Germany laughed
+and later openly announced that the Bagdad railroad was a Prussian
+enterprise of state.  In fact, this concession, which is likely to be
+famous in history when the Allies win, was handed over to the German
+Emperor personally by the Sultan.
+
+Already a thousand miles of this road have been constructed through
+Asia Minor to Mosul.  The concession carries the mineral rights for ten
+miles on either side of the railroad, except through the oil fields of
+Mesopotamia, said to be among the greatest of the oil fields of the
+world.  They are really part of the famous Russian oil territory
+between Batum and Baku, or the Black and Caspian seas, which extends
+not only south into Mesopotamia but is now being developed far to the
+north in the Ural Mountains of Great Russia.
+
+Steadily the influence of Germany progressed with Turkey, now through
+one channel, now through another.  When the Bulgarian war broke out, it
+was German guns and German officers and German money that upheld the
+Turks.  The French put their money on Bulgaria by bank loans to her
+treasury.  The Russians backed Servia.  The French laughed and so did
+all Europe when the Turkish troops manned by German officers were
+beaten back to Constantinople and the Bosphorus.
+
+Austria extended the hand of friendship to Bulgaria and induced her to
+attack her allies, Servia and Greece, thus making the second Balkan
+war.  The result was the loss by Bulgaria of part of the territory she
+had acquired and a further augmentation in the importance of Servia.
+Bulgaria has never forgiven either Servia or Austria for this defeat.
+
+The Servians are the pure-blooded Slavs, while the Bulgarians have a
+Turkish admixture, whence their great fighting qualities.  The
+Roumanians just north of Bulgaria are Italians, and the defeat of
+Turkey in Africa by Italy did not lessen the importance of this
+enterprising nation on the Danube, fronting Austria-Hungary and Russia.
+Both Austria and Germany were losers in all three wars; while the
+treaty ending the second Balkan war magnified Servia of the Slav race
+of Russia.  This is the important and crucial point in race and
+geography.
+
+Austria, as the hand of Germany, still demanded a union of all these
+Balkan states with Turkey and under the aegis of Austria,--which meant,
+of course, Germany.
+
+The aim of Germany in alliance with Turkey was, through Austria in
+_quasi_-sovereignty over the Balkan states, to carry German influence
+by the Bagdad railroad right through Asia Minor to the Persian Gulf.
+Germany would thus be, when the work was finished, a mighty military
+empire with rail communications cleaving the center of Europe and
+extending through Asia Minor to Eastern waters.  With her growing
+steamship lines she would touch her colonies in the Pacific and her
+mighty naval base at Kiao-Chau in the Far East.
+
+Now, while Germany is besieged on all sides and Italy and Roumania are
+preparing to go into the war with the Allies that they may have their
+part and parcel in the settlements, it is recognized that it is none
+too early for the Allies to consider the map of the entire eastern
+hemisphere and tackle that most difficult problem, the Bagdad railroad,
+from which Turkey, Asia Minor, Mesopotamia, and Palestine, the great
+historic countries of the world, must be parcelled out or dominated and
+developed.
+
+The followers of Mohammed are no longer a unit.  They number
+175,000,000 people in the aggregate, but India and Egypt have gradually
+receded in sentiment from decadent Turkey, now numbering only about
+20,000,000 people, and defended by an army of about 1,000,000.  But
+this is no longer an army of united, fighting Mohammedan Turks; only a
+mixed army lacking in unity, discipline, efficiency and financial base.
+
+Indeed, such are the financial straits of Turkey that a ten per cent
+tax has been levied upon the property of the people.  If you hold
+property in Turkey and cannot pay ten per cent of the value the
+authorities have assessed against it, it may be sold or confiscated for
+the tax.
+
+Where the money goes, nobody knows.  German influence with Turkey has a
+financial base; 6,000,000 pounds sterling or 100,000,000 marks went
+from Germany to Constantinople just before the war, according to
+reports I have from people in the international exchange markets.  From
+diplomatic sources I learn that this was just one half of the payment
+made by Germany to Turkey.  The other 100,000,000 marks was probably
+paid in war supplies, including the two famous German warships that the
+English allowed to escape from the Mediterranean into Turkish waters.
+
+The little English boy was right who returned from school the other day
+and said, "Hurray!  I don't have to study any more geography; the old
+maps are to be torn up and the new map has not yet been made."
+
+It is because of the making of this new map that European diplomacy is
+rolling on underneath the surface faster than ever before.  Bulgaria
+has demanded as the price of her neutrality that she shall have what
+she lost in the second Balkan war.  The Allies have responded: "What
+you get must depend upon what Servia gets from Austria and in the
+carving up of Albania."  Austria-Hungary may lose Bosnia, Herzegovina,
+Dalmatia, and some more.  So far as Servia acquires territory here
+Bulgaria may push farther south, recovering Adrianople and more sea
+coast on the Aegean.
+
+Roumania wants Transylvania just north in Hungary, occupied by
+2,500,000 people, the majority Roumanians--this will make her
+10,000,000 people--and Italy wants territory from Austria and naval
+ports on the Adriatic sea.
+
+Neither Italy nor Roumania has its full war supplies and equipments.
+Servia, however, has been terribly pounded by Austria and but for her
+good fortune in pushing Austria back out of Servia in December, the
+Roumanians with their 450,000 well-organized troops might have had to
+come to her assistance earlier than was prepared for.  Indeed, it is
+now expected that Italy and Roumania will move against Austria within a
+few weeks.  Russia and the Allies are making their agreements for this
+intervention.
+
+And what does America know about these movements on the European
+chessboard, and upon what basis should she aspire to be arbiter or
+peace adviser?
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER V
+
+FRANCE AND THE FRENCH
+
+Signs of War not Conspicuous--Paris reopened--A Rejuvenation--English
+and American Help--French Casualties--French Heroes.
+
+
+One enters France nowadays by the Folkestone and Dieppe route, which is
+a four-hour Channel trip or longer, or by Folkestone and Boulogne, a
+Channel trip of ninety minutes more or less.  All the routes to Calais
+are used by the government for its troops, supplies, and munitions.
+England's hospital base is at Boulogne.  Here is the center of her Red
+Cross work, with a dozen big hospital ships commandeered from the P. &
+O. line and bearing distinctive stripes around their hulls.  One
+hospital ship is set apart for the wounded Indians, and the apartments
+within are fitted up according to the various religious castes
+prevalent among the troops of India now fighting in France and
+Flanders.  Here at times puts in Lord Zetland's yacht, fitted out by
+Queen Alexandra for wounded English officers.
+
+When you travel by rail, if you did not know that war was in the
+country you would never suspect it, unless you wondered why a
+red-hatted, blue-coated guard, with a rifle carelessly swung over his
+shoulder, is noticeable now and then by a cross-road or near the
+buttress of an important railroad bridge.  You pass trains of troops,
+but the uniforms are quiet, the men jovial and unwarlike.  The wounded
+are not conspicuously moved by day.
+
+Although you are not many miles away from the firing line, where an
+average of more than ten thousand are daily falling, the country is as
+peaceful and quiet as can be imagined.  The big black and white horses
+are winter ploughing.  The red and black cattle and the sheep and hogs
+are grazing in fields and pastures.  The reddening willows speak of an
+early spring, and the full blue streams tell the brown grasses, and the
+tall poplars that their colors will soon be gayer.
+
+As the shadows fall, no guard comes as in England to pull your curtain
+down according to military orders; and, as you approach Paris, you see
+families dining by uncurtained windows in blazing light.  You are
+astonished after your London experience of semi-darkness to find the
+boulevards ablaze and no apparent fear of aerial enemies or
+sky-invasion, although aeroplanes and Zeppelins and bombs may be flying
+and fighting only eighty miles away.  Now and then a searchlight
+illumines the heavens, but even searchlights are far less conspicuous
+than in London.  In January the lights were ordered to be lowered; but
+Paris will not stand for long London fog, gloom, or darkness.  The
+French atmosphere and life demand light.
+
+Paris is gradually getting accustomed to the situation.  More than 30
+first-class hotels are partially opened and advertising.  Many of the
+business streets have a semi-Sunday appearance.  Boulevards running
+from the Place de l'Opera are well filled with people, and nearly all
+of the stores are now open.  In the first weeks of December you could
+see the reopening day by day, and when on the 10th the government
+returned to Paris, the art stores and the jewelry stores joined with
+the confectioners, trunk dealers, and book-men, and threw open shutters
+that had been closed four months.
+
+Paris is now normal but not crowded.  Theaters are reopening, but the
+restaurants must be closed at ten P.M.  The inhabitants young and old
+picnic in the Bois de Boulogne and evince most interest in the defences
+about the Paris gates,--the moats, the new trenches that have been dug,
+and the tree-trunks that have been thrown down with their branches and
+tops pointing outward as though to interrupt the progress of an enemy.
+Buildings have been taken down, and the forts of Paris stand forth as
+never before; but when you learn how unmanned and how useless they are
+in modern warfare, you can but smile and join with the people in their
+curiosity excursions.  A single modern shell can put a modern
+stone-and-steel fort, garrison and guns, entirely out of commission.
+
+A year ago Paris looked dirty and decadent.  Her building fronts were
+grimy, her streets were dirty, and there was a general carelessness
+where before had been art, precision, and cleanliness.  To-day Paris
+streets are clean.  There is even more evidence of rebuilding and of
+modern conveniences.  Motor street-sweepers whirl through the squares,
+not singly but in pairs and more extended series, and they move with
+automobile rapidity, quickly cleansing the pavement.
+
+I was reminded thereby of a personal experience at the breaking out of
+the Spanish-American War.  At breakfast on a Sunday morning with one of
+America's most successful millionaires, I said, "How is it possible
+that the stock market can be rising as the country is going to war--a
+war that may cause some of our new warships to turn turtle and may
+bring bombardment upon our sea-coast cities?  Yet before the guns are
+booming the stock market is booming.  Indeed, the stock market began to
+boom from the time we declared a state of war."
+
+And this successful multi-millionaire replied quietly, "Stocks are
+going up because I am buying them and every other intelligent
+capitalist is buying them.  Look out of the window there.  That sweeper
+at the crossing has straightened up and is sweeping that crossing
+better and with more energy because the flags are flying, and the bells
+are ringing, and the guns will soon be booming.  War is the greatest
+energizer of a people.  There is now profit in industry and enterprise,
+and financial equities have increased value."  And for nearly ten years
+the stock market booms followed in the wake of that war boom, while
+construction and upbuilding went steadily forward despite agitation and
+restricting laws.
+
+It would astonish Mr. Wilson and Mr. Bryan to know how many patriotic
+Americans are helping France and what they are doing in Red Cross and
+other work.  I was surprised to meet a former member of the New York
+Stock Exchange in a khaki uniform.  I said, "Are you still an American
+citizen?"  He responded promptly, "Certainly I am, but would not the
+boys on the floor of the Exchange be astonished to see me in this
+uniform?"
+
+I said, "Were there not men enough here to do this work?"
+
+He responded, "Possibly, but quick organization was wanted, and I
+volunteered and have held the job."  And he was off in his high-powered
+automobile for a run down behind the firing line to one of the Channel
+ports.
+
+As the casualties of the French have been ten times those of the
+English, American and English sympathizers have turned to France to see
+if they might "do something."  An English lady with small feet and
+delicate hands responded to the spirit of the hour, left her English
+home and her servants, and went to the hospital front in France.  She
+wrote home: "I am helping not only to dress the wounds, but to wash
+dishes.  My soft hands are parboiled but hardening; my feet are sore;
+and my legs are swollen.  I lie down thoroughly exhausted every night,
+but I am doing something and am happy."
+
+Mrs. W. L. Wyllie, wife of the famous marine etcher on the south
+English coast, looked out upon the Channel war-scenes, and took ship
+for France.  She found the center and south of the country one vast
+hospital.  At Limoges alone she found more than 12,000 wounded, and
+32,000 wounded had passed through that city.  She found the hospital in
+need of special bandages and cross-bandages for multiple wounds, and
+back she flew to England for bales of bandages.  For weeks she was
+crossing and recrossing the English Channel.  Soldiers have recovered
+from as many as twenty and thirty bullet-wounds in the flesh.
+
+An American lady assisting in the English Red Cross work told me that
+she saw 2000 wounded every day for eleven days arriving at Boulogne.
+About the middle of December I learned that orders had been given to
+clear the Boulogne hospital base and prepare for a large number of
+wounded.  Relief days for the troops at the front were shortened, and
+it was intimated to me in good quarters that the Germans would enjoy no
+Christmas in their trenches.  The Allies advanced, counted their dead
+and wounded, and ceased in the attack.
+
+I do not believe that any great forward movement can be made on either
+side from or against these trenches in the winter time.  In good
+strategy and diplomacy, the break-up of Germany should come from other
+quarters.
+
+There is considerable typhoid arising from the trench-work, but I heard
+it stated in medical circles that the Servian troops, with their milder
+climate, had found a new way of healing wounds.  Not having the
+hospital base and equipment of other countries, they heal their wounds
+in the open air with the result that there is no tetanus or lock-jaw.
+In Switzerland human tuberculosis is now being cured by exposing the
+chest, directly over the affection, to the full rays of the sun.
+
+The casualties of this war have been tremendous for France.  No lists
+of her dead or wounded are published; it was at first a life-and-death
+struggle.  While the total casualties--killed, wounded, missing, and
+prisoners--were estimated in the press reports and by the people as
+600,000, I happen to know that they were more than 1,000,000.  Of
+these, of course, one third or more will return to the battle-line, and
+the French have the satisfaction of knowing that the German losses are
+far larger.  But, viewed from a financial standpoint, if this war is
+not too prolonged or too costly in life and treasure, France will
+emerge from it rejuvenated and reenergized.
+
+Her people are serious and determined as never before.  They now
+welcome strong work and strong hands, and if the Republic does not
+respond to the responsibilities of the hour, they will not as in 1870
+burn and destroy, but will set up another government in quick order and
+wipe out the weakness and inefficiency found to exist when the strain
+came in August, 1914.
+
+The French nation has never before been put to such a trial.  In every
+other war there has been no threat of the destruction of France.
+Indeed, up to 1870 France was the great nation of Europe, greatest in
+war as well as greatest in peace.  When she attacked Germany in 1870,
+she started for Berlin with full confidence in her greatness.  And when
+she paid to the Germans a billion dollars in 1871, it was with scorn
+and contempt: "Take your money and get out!"
+
+When Bismarck in 1875 discovered the prosperity of France, he cunningly
+set about encompassing her downfall.  He knew the world would not
+approve of Germany attacking a foreign foe; there was no excuse that
+could be found.
+
+Therefore, as he himself has confessed, he started France into
+empire-colonial upbuilding in Africa and Asia, with the full intention
+of leading her into a clash with England.  When this point was reached
+many years afterwards, Delcasse clearly saw the situation, and, instead
+of war, made friends with England.  All the world knows the result.
+Germany demanded his resignation from the French Cabinet under threat
+of war.  France was humiliated, Delcasse dropped.  Later he led the
+movement to strengthen the navy of France as well as the army.  It may
+be declared that Delcasse created the Triple Entente and thereby saved
+France and Europe.  To-day France fights a wholly defensive battle,
+supported on the one side by the Russian bear and on the other by the
+British lion.  And strongest in the new cabinet of France stands
+Delcasse.
+
+France was chastened by the war of 1870.  She will be crushed or
+redeemed by the war of 1915.  The spirit of her people to-day is the
+spirit of sacrifice.  The French character never before shone forth so
+nobly.
+
+"What a terrible disfigurement!" exclaimed a thoughtless lady as she
+visited the wounded in a great French hospital.
+
+"Not a disfigurement at all, madame," exclaimed the French soldier.  "A
+decoration!"
+
+Out of this war may come great political and military heroes.  There is
+one general in France to-day whose name is not widely known but of whom
+his associates say, "He is not only the equal but the superior of
+Napoleon."  But the great hero throughout Europe to-day is the King of
+the Belgians, of that little country that grew daily bigger in the eyes
+of the world as it grew daily smaller in possessed territory.  There
+are those who believe that France and Belgium will be hereafter closer
+together than before, and that--stranger things have happened--the King
+of the little Belgians might be no greater miracle for France than the
+little Corsican more than one hundred years ago.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER VI
+
+THE POSITION OF FRANCE
+
+The Iron Hand of War--Paris offered in Sacrifice--Faulty
+Mobilization--The French Army--The Joffre Strategy--The German Retreat.
+
+
+The position of France to-day cannot be compared with that of any other
+country in the war.  The French people have a distinctive genius all
+their own.  They are still the greatest people in art in the world.
+Nothing in sculpture or painting in the outside world yet rivals the
+skill of France.  Politically the French are trusting children,
+vibrating between empires and republics, and following only the rule of
+success.  In finance they were accounted great a generation ago.  In
+savings they have been regarded as world-leaders.
+
+When the stern reality of military necessity suddenly confronted France
+five months ago, there was the same old story of graft, fraud, and a
+deceived people.
+
+But the war authorities gripped France with an iron hand.  The military
+traitors and grafters are in jail.  The weaklings in the official line
+have been cashiered.  The politically undesirable have been given
+foreign missions.
+
+There was political as well as military wisdom in the return of the
+government from Bordeaux to Paris.  The French people were shocked when
+they learned that the boasted military defences of Paris, "the most
+extensive fortifications in the world," embracing 400 square miles,
+were unprovisioned and indefensible, that the government had fled, and
+that there was no army to save the city.
+
+Indeed, the authorities had determined to sacrifice Paris to save
+France.  General Joffre had no men to spare to be bottled up in the
+city.  He determined that his armies should be kept free on the field.
+
+You may ask anywhere in France, Belgium, or England why the French did
+not come to the relief of Belgium, why Paris was undefended, and what
+saved it after Von Kluck had led seven armies of 1,000,000 men down to
+its very gates, and you will get no satisfactory answer.
+
+But when you have studied the situation and the record, you will see
+that no simple answer can be readily given.  A brief one would be:
+French mobilization plans were imperfect, and, therefore, Belgium could
+not be defended by the French.  But motor-busses did what the railroads
+were unprepared to do, and finally saved Paris and France.
+
+The French had been warned many months publicly and privately that
+their mobilization plans would be found faulty in case of sudden
+hostilities.  The railways moved perishable goods at the rate of thirty
+miles a day while German and Austrian railways bore military trains at
+the rate of thirty miles an hour.
+
+So ill prepared were the French in their mobilization plans that they
+actually summoned to arms the men who were to man the railways, and the
+railways themselves were deficient in rolling-stock to move the troops.
+The citizens responded promptly enough, but France had no bureaucracy
+or military plans to match those of Germany, and, as throughout French
+history, the leaders of the people failed at the crucial moment.  The
+plodding English had to help out the French railway plans, and then had
+to turn around and find their own railroad defects.  When England first
+sounded the call to arms, men deserted the railroad service to go into
+training to such an extent that the authorities had to stop it and
+maintain transportation as, of course, an important arm of the
+war-service.
+
+The history of the unpreparedness of both England and France has yet to
+be written.  It would not be useful to print much that is already
+known.  There are two political sentiments in both countries, and
+political issues will rise again in both after the war.
+
+A little contemplation here will show the extravagance of many
+estimates of the number of men to be put in the field in time of war.
+Many estimates have taken little account of the number of men required
+to handle a modern transportation service, and the supply organization
+to back up an effective army at the front.  Transportation and
+war-supplies are on such an expanded basis as was not dreamed of a few
+years ago.  The war plans of one generation cannot be the war plans of
+another either on land or sea.  That France had 4,500,000 men capable
+of bearing arms did not mean that she could hold 4,000,000 men in
+fighting array at any one time.
+
+After five months of war France had only 1,500,000 men at the front,
+and from the camps and military organizations she expects to have ready
+a fresh army of another million in the spring.  But she mobilized
+nearly 4,000,000 men.  Paris industry, trade, and commerce could shut
+down in a day, but there was no organization that could make in a day
+or a week the men of France into an army at the front.  Her 600,000
+regular troops were, of course, always in position to be thrown on the
+defensive at the German frontier.  None of the nearly 4,000,000
+additional men could be got with arms and munitions of war into
+Belgium, to meet effectively the trained troops of Germany.
+
+The German troops were "moving" as early as July 25, while all the
+governments of Europe, including Austria, were negotiating for and
+hopeful of peace.  When war was declared against France, she promptly
+offered Belgium five French army corps for defence.  King Albert
+declined, saying there had been no invasion of Belgium by Germany, and
+that Belgian neutrality was guaranteed by treaty.  Within two days the
+German guns were firing on Belgium; but when King Albert then called
+upon France for protection, the response was that the French troops
+which had been offered had been placed elsewhere.  The regular troops
+probably had.  The new troops were not mobilized, and the French
+transportation system, to say the least, had not been as responsive as
+expected.
+
+France paid dearly for her unpreparedness.  Her richest provinces were
+invaded by the Germans and are still held by the Germans in
+considerable part.
+
+Caught unprepared, there was only one safe thing for General Joffre to
+do--let the Germans expand far from their base while the French
+concentrated between the German border and Paris, to strike back at the
+opportune moment against an extended and weakened line.
+
+The march of the armies of Von Kluck--"General One O'clock," they
+called him, and said his fiercest attacks were at one o'clock--is
+considered a masterpiece of military precision.  The strategy of
+General Joffre which foiled him is praised throughout France.
+
+The plan of the Germans was to hold the north of France with the army
+of Von Kluck while the Crown Prince moved from Luxemburg straight to
+Paris.  This was theatrical, dramatic, and Kaiserlike; but the French
+would not consent.  They persisted in holding Verdun and defeating the
+armies of the Crown Prince.
+
+The English are the greatest fighters in the world in retreat, while
+the French can fight best in a forward movement.  The little
+expeditionary army of England, originally 100,000 men but at this time
+180,000 men, held the right flank of Von Kluck in the retreat from
+river to river, from hill to hill, although pounded by 350,000 trained
+German troops massed on this flank.  This retreat put the stamp of
+English bravery and dogged determination, as before, on the map of
+Europe.  Paris was open and exposed to any entry which the Germans
+wished to make.  The government had retired, the gold reserves of the
+banks had been moved, the people in large numbers had fled.
+
+Indeed, I may say what has never before been printed, that President
+Poincare summoned the "architect" of the city to the American embassy
+and, with tears streaming down his face, told him whence he must take
+his orders in the future.
+
+Then in a flash went the orders of Joffre along his whole concentrated
+line of troops: "The retreat has ended, not another foot; you die here
+or the enemy goes back!"  He had chosen the psychological moment.  The
+French and English had burned and broken the bridges as they retreated,
+and with the recoil the German communications were in danger.
+
+A fresh force of 50,000 held in reserve near Paris flew by motors and
+motor-busses against the right wing of Von Kluck, which the English in
+retiring had been punishing so heavily.  Von Kluck had been drawn too
+far into France with no support on his left from the army of the Crown
+Prince, which the French had held at bay but with a tremendous
+sacrifice of men.  The German ammunition and supply-trains were broken
+and the armies of Von Kluck were hurled back from Paris about as
+rapidly as they had come forward.
+
+Then the Kaiser took a hand and cried, "Now for the English; take the
+Channel ports; forward against Calais!" and again, as at Liege, the
+blood of the Germans soaked the soil of Belgium.  The Allies dug
+themselves into the ground behind the rivers and canals, and drowned
+the Germans out in front; and when an advance by the seacoast was
+attempted, the English naval guns spilled havoc into the German
+battalions.  Four nationalities grappled in a death-struggle, but the
+wall of the Allies held from Switzerland to the sea.  The Allies worked
+most harmoniously.  Belgian knowledge of topography proved superior to
+the German general-staff maps.  The English buttressed the French
+financially and in transportation and food-supplies.  Indeed, Kitchener
+at one time fed two French army corps, or 80,000 troops, for eleven
+days without a hitch.
+
+Although England had not the trained men, she had the fundamental
+military organization, transportation, food, and finance.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER VII
+
+FRENCH FINANCE
+
+Delayed Budgets--The Caillaux Position--Outgeneralled in Finance--Gold
+Reserves Undiminished--Allied Finance--No Financial Legislation--The
+National Defense Loans.
+
+
+The spectacle of England loaning money to rich France--20,000,000
+pounds sterling, or $100,000,000--was something most surprising.
+
+The French have been considered among the best financiers and
+economists of Europe.  The whole world has been envious of the saving
+ability of France, and has invited the overflow of her accumulations
+into their local enterprises.  For many years France has had the lowest
+interest rates and a considerable surplus to invest in outside
+countries.  It is upon France that Russia has mainly relied for funds
+for her expanding industrial development.  In the Baring crisis she
+sent her gold to London to fortify the situation, and in the American
+crisis of 1907 she extended her hand across the sea.  Then she turned
+about and steadily built up her gold reserve in the Bank of France,
+from $500,000,000 to above $800,000,000, although her people were not
+expanding in population, industry, or enterprise.  France had grown so
+confident that she seemed at one time to have lost her financial
+cunning.
+
+In Germany in 1913 I was told that German finance had passed through
+the "fire test," that two years of building recession and of expanding
+commerce had placed her on a solid financial base; and it was true.
+
+I was told to step over to Paris and see a disordered budget, an
+increasing national deficit, bad investments in Mexico and South
+America, and disorganized finance.  I did and found it all true.  I
+also found that France was fully able to take care of herself without
+any outside help, and, but for the specter of outside interference, to
+delay her financing if she so elected.
+
+It has been something of a mystery as to how there could be two Balkan
+wars and so little of public finance behind them.  Of course, Russia
+and France helped the Balkan States and Germany helped Turkey.  The
+money of France came from the French banks and was loaned to the
+treasuries of the Balkan States and to Greece--to Bulgaria 350,000,000
+francs; to Greece 250,000,000.
+
+The French government said that this could not be financed by public
+issue after the war until the national budget itself had been arranged,
+although French bankers were permitted to float a $50,000,000 Servian
+loan.  With the increasing cost of labor and supplies the French
+railways had been steadily running behind, and France had to face a
+deficit in her budget of something like 1,000,000,000 francs, or
+$200,000,000, per annum.
+
+It was proposed last January that the government should consolidate its
+indebtedness and put its financial house in order, by an issue of
+long-term securities; but Caillaux opposed the programme and defeated
+it for many months.  This postponed the issue of the Balkan States'
+loans.
+
+To-day Caillaux is about the most hated man in France.  Although he is
+financially well-to-do, the people believe that his connections and
+sympathy with Germany were too close.  The German press took his side
+in the famous Calmette shooting affair and the trial of Madame
+Caillaux, and all this record now stands forth most threateningly in
+the French blood.
+
+I may perhaps be permitted to say that M. Caillaux has been under
+arrest, and that the police of Paris have declared they would not be
+responsible for his safety.  It has, therefore, been diplomatically
+arranged by the government that he should be now in Brazil upon a
+semi-diplomatic and trade mission.
+
+The French loan just before the war was not a popular success.  The
+reason is now obvious.  It was sold short from other European capitals
+where it was better known that war was in the air.
+
+When a famous "bear" operator reappeared upon the Paris Bourse after
+his return from Vienna, whence he had conducted his attack on the
+French loan, he was greeted with a storm of hisses.  The French Bourse
+is a government institution and must support the credit of France and
+her allies.  In Vienna they knew war was planned for the end of
+September, even before the assassination of the Austrian Crown Prince
+at Serajevo June 28.  This event hastened but did not make the war.
+
+Nevertheless, instead of permitting the French banks to bring out the
+Balkan loans thereafter, the French authorities allowed Turkey to come
+into the French market with a loan for 25,000,000 pounds, or
+625,000,000 francs.
+
+Some people pleaded with them that this money would be used against
+France, and that every franc would go to repay the German loans; and
+they were right.
+
+In this financial situation France was suddenly plunged into war, and
+while Germany and England have been raising money by the billion, the
+marvelous thing is that France has made no public issue beyond one-year
+notes, but continues to pay her bills in gold and has the exchanges all
+in her favor.  Money is flowing in, and not out.
+
+It was most marvelous to find in France, in the fifth month of the war,
+prompt payment, no distrust of the government paper issues, gold and
+paper circulating side by side, and no strain for gold as in Germany.
+
+Nevertheless, the war has been fought thus far for the most part on the
+paper issues of the Bank of France and with the gold reserve of that
+bank undiminished.
+
+This is most remarkable.
+
+The first reason I can assign for it is that the French soldier gets
+twenty-five centimes, or five cents a day, or one fifth the pay of an
+English soldier.  Kitchener's army is to-day costing far more than the
+entire French army.  French food is locally abundant and cheap,
+notwithstanding the _octroi_, or French local tax of one eighth.  The
+main need of the French from the outside is boots and horses.  The
+English in France are not taxing French resources at all.  All their
+food-supplies, including the hay for their horses, come from England.
+
+The English troops are also well supplied with money from home.
+Outside the regular Tommy Atkins, the volunteers and territorials
+coming into France have abundant money.  They are the men from the
+cities and from the wealthiest families in the country life of England.
+There are more than 300,000 of them on French soil, and as they come
+and go in France, they are spending not less than four shillings a day
+each, or nearly four times their wages.  This makes a daily expenditure
+of 60,000 pounds sterling in France, and calling for exchange.  Hence
+the English pound has been at the lowest price in France on record,
+24.95 and sometimes 24.90.
+
+There is also the additional reason of higher insurance rates for the
+transportation of money across the Channel,--a channel infested with
+mines and submarines.  It is no uncommon thing for boats crossing the
+Channel to sight floating mines, and the wonder is that disasters
+therefrom have been so few.
+
+The third reason is that France has very large investments and credit
+resources outside, and can still summon money from abroad.
+
+You see more English than French soldiers in the life of Paris.  Their
+khaki uniforms are as conspicuous there as in London.
+
+The character of the early enlistments for the front in London is
+illustrated by the following story.  An officer entered a restaurant
+where a group of English soldiers in khaki uniforms were enjoying their
+cigarettes and pipes.  The officer threw some shillings on the table
+and called, "Waiter, give these men some beer."
+
+And a khaki uniform snapped forth a sovereign on the same table, and
+cried, "Waiter, give this officer some champagne."
+
+Bank statements are queer contraptions nowadays.  While the United
+States, with less gold in the country and less reserve in the banks
+than formerly, is showing the most enormous surplus--and a legitimate
+and better-protected surplus by reason of the new bank act--and the
+Bank of England is counting $100,000,000 of gold in Canada as a London
+bank reserve, and Russia has counted, as gold in her reserve, money on
+deposit which has been loaned out on time; while Belgium is doing a
+banking business from an English base, and Germany is inviting gold
+from the jewelry of her inhabitants and boasting her gold strength, the
+Bank of France refuses to publish any statement, makes no boast, but
+holds more gold than ever before in her history.
+
+Only a few weeks before the war was her metal base put above
+$800,000,000.  Then she suspended official statements until one was
+made to the government December 10, and this showed $880,000,000 metal
+base, or 4,500,000,000 francs.  Upon this her note issue, which was
+formerly 5,800,000,000 has been expanded to nearly 10,000,000,000.  She
+is authorized to issue up to 12,000,000,000 francs in paper.
+
+From this metallic base she increased her bills receivable by
+3,000,000,000 francs, or about the same amount that the Bank of England
+discounted in pre-moratorium bills under the backing of the government.
+Each country took on $600,000,000 of mercantile credits, and both
+countries are now finding this item receding.  In France the mercantile
+credits have been considerably reduced--the increase reduced nearly a
+half--because the men are at the front and business is not calling for
+the credits formerly in use.
+
+The Bank of France also promptly advanced 8,000,000,000 francs or
+$400,000,000 to the government.
+
+In the last few weeks of 1914 the finances of Russia, France, and
+Belgium became interlaced with those of England, and gold credits for
+the Allies' supplies were established around the world, shipments from
+North America going both east and west into the European war.
+Government credit with the Bank of France was then extended, but should
+not early in January have been more than $800,000,000.
+
+This is the main financial assistance on which France for five months
+conducted a successful defensive warfare, with 1,500,000 men at the
+front and nearly 3,000,000 men behind them.
+
+The next most remarkable financial feature in respect to France is that
+there has been no special financial legislation, in fact no financial
+legislation whatsoever, except the December budget vote to cover
+government expenses, including the war.  A moratorium was set up by
+decree, but authorization for this already existed under the general
+laws.  Under this moratorium payments were permitted at first of 5 per
+cent, then 25 per cent.  Later depositors were permitted to draw from
+the banks 40 per cent, and 40 per cent payments became the rule.  Then
+50 per cent for December, and in January, 1915, full payment to
+bank-depositors, although legally the moratorium stands to March 1,
+1915.
+
+Among other temporary devices in French finance was the issue by French
+chambers of commerce in the south of France of small pieces of
+paper,--as low as 50 centimes or 10 cents,--used only for circulation
+and change locally.
+
+Many banks closed their branches because they had not the clerks to man
+them.  Many bankers lost three fourths of their staff when the
+mobilization orders were issued, and all over Paris the banks are
+closed from twelve to two because of the limitations of the staff.
+When the Credit Lyonnais reopened its branch in the Champs Elysees a
+few weeks ago it was manned by women clerks.
+
+The government loan issued in the summer of 1914 met less than half of
+the floating indebtedness and 1914 ordinary deficit.  The balance as
+maturing has been merged into the national-defense loan, which is only
+short-term financing.  On the 10th of December there were 1,000,000,000
+francs of the new national-defense loan outstanding, but it was being
+subscribed for all over France daily.  This national-defense loan
+consists of three, six, nine, and twelve months' government bills
+bearing 5 per cent interest.  I figured that the amount issued December
+10 was for the most part used to provide for the maturing floating
+indebtedness, and for the deficit on the government budget aside from
+the expense of the present war.
+
+As the government is advancing money to Servia and to Belgium, the loan
+of 20,000,000 pounds, or $100,000,000, from England can be readily
+accounted for.
+
+There were loans from the big banks of France for the government at the
+opening of the war, but these loans I was assured were all merged in
+the 5 per cent national-defense loans, which have not exceeding one
+year to run.
+
+On these national-defense loans the cautious Bank of France will
+advance in limited amounts 80 per cent of the face value, but only
+where the government loan matures within three months.
+
+The great principle of the Bank of France is to keep liquid.  Its
+assets must always be mobile.
+
+There is only one point at which French finance should be criticized,
+and as we cannot know all the details of the stress of the military
+position when Paris was abandoned, her mobilizing of the reserves still
+in disorganization, and her transportation awry, we may not be in a
+position to level any just criticism.
+
+But it must be set down in the interest of true report that the French
+credit was at one time endangered by the way the treasury, or the
+military authorities, handled the government credit in payment for
+war-supplies.
+
+Instead of going to the bankers and making its financial arrangements,
+paying the war-supply contractors, the French government made many
+contracts under which it paid contractors, and purveyors, with the 6
+per cent national-defense notes of the government, running three, six,
+nine, and twelve months.
+
+As the contractors were making 15 per cent and 20 per cent on their
+mercantile overturn, they could afford to discount 5 per cent and more
+in the sale of the government notes, and while the government was
+passing out these notes at par to the patriotic subscribers, the
+contractors were negotiating liberal discounts to bankers and others.
+
+Nevertheless, the stupendous fact remains that France, caught in a
+European war most unaware, with impaired budget and a floating
+indebtedness, has carried the greatest war of her history for six
+months without a long-term national loan and by the issue of less than
+$200,000,000 5 per cent short-term notes for not exceeding one year,
+and credits for less than $800,000,000 from the Bank of France; has
+maintained her gold basis unimpaired; and has kept the international
+exchanges steadily in her favor; and all this without any special
+financial legislation.
+
+Nor could I find any evidence of a French disposition to sell the
+American copper shares, railroad bonds, or industrial shares into which
+the French have been putting some money of late years.  But I did learn
+that short-term American railroad notes may this year be renewed abroad
+only in part.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER VIII
+
+THE BELGIAN SACRIFICE
+
+No Migration from Belgium--Germany's War Tax
+Levies--Irreconcilable--The Army--No Neutrality over Belgium.
+
+
+Before Germany launched her thunderbolts of war, Belgium had an
+industrious, frugal, hard-working, saving population of nearly
+8,000,000 people.  Of these, 450,000 are now refugees in Holland, where
+the magnanimous Dutch are providing for them with no outside
+assistance.  Queen Wilhelmina declares, "These are our guests and we
+will care for them."  Nearly 30,000 Belgian troops have also been
+interned in Holland.  It was expected that they might leak out, but the
+Dutch are stern in their present position of neutrality.  They
+understand their very existence depends upon it.  Some of the interned
+warriors attempted to escape, and six were shot by the Dutch.  Nor will
+they permit contraband articles of war to go through their country.
+While the Dutch may sell their own supplies as they please, all imports
+of rubber, copper, or petroleum must be accounted for, and their
+reexport to Germany is forbidden.
+
+Germany also holds 30,000 Belgian soldiers as prisoners.  England took
+18,000 severely wounded Belgian soldiers into her hospitals, and 80,000
+refugees are being there cared for largely by private enterprise.  The
+losses by the war are difficult of estimation.  But at the present time
+there are 7,000,000 people in Belgium, most of whom must be fed by the
+outside world.
+
+Belgium is the one nation from which the people have never migrated.
+Beyond war there is only one power that can move the Belgians from
+their soil, and that is the influence of the Church.
+
+Representatives of American railroad and industrial interests are in
+Europe endeavoring to induce emigration from Belgium to the United
+States, but it is doubtful if these efforts will meet with any success.
+There are in the United States to-day only two Belgian settlements, one
+of about 1000 people in Montana and one of about 1500 in western New
+York.  The Belgian loves his land and sits by his home though it be in
+ruins.  The history of the land of the Belgians shows that, as the
+cockpit of Europe, it was the battle-ground of centuries; yet her
+people are more immobile than those of any other country in Europe.
+Earthquakes do not make sunny Italy or golden California less
+attractive to their inhabitants.
+
+About $20,000,000 (more than 10 per cent of this came from Belgian
+people) has been raised to feed starving Belgians, and $20,000,000 more
+should be forthcoming.
+
+The English war office objected at first to the American proposals for
+food supplies to the little country.  It was held to be the duty of the
+invading Germans to feed the population of the conquered country, as
+the Germans had appropriated large stores of supplies that were in
+Belgium, notably at Antwerp.
+
+England finally assented to the proposal, as well she might, for
+Belgium would starve without food from the outside, irrespective of war
+losses.  In normal times, she imports 240,000 tons of food every month.
+She also imports most of her raw supplies for manufacturing.  Belgium
+is, therefore, to-day without food, or raw materials for her
+industries, and probably without outlet had her industries the ability
+to produce.  Although about fifty ships are bringing food to Belgium,
+they are of small capacity and in the aggregate represent less than one
+month's supply.  In the early part of December about 80,000 tons of
+food were going through the American committee by permission of Germany
+and England.  The people have been put on one-third rations.  Every
+inhabitant of Belgium is allowed a pint of soup a day and about as much
+coarse brown bread as would make one American loaf.
+
+The German idea of responsibility and power is that of force.  They
+have ordered the people of Belgium to love them, cooeperate with them,
+and go about their business.  But the Belgians refuse to love the
+Germans, refuse to cooeperate with them and will not resume their work
+for the Germans to appropriate the results.  The people of Antwerp were
+invited to come back from Holland and it was proclaimed that there
+would be no indemnity levied, yet a huge one came down upon the city.
+The Germans levied a war tax of 50,000,000 francs on Brussels, and
+Rothschild and Solvay are not permitted to leave the city.
+
+Payment on the tax was agreed to, and then the Germans demanded
+500,000,000 francs from the entire province of Brabant, which includes
+Louvain as well as Brussels.  The inhabitants said it was impossible
+and the demand was reduced to 375,000,000 francs.  The inference must
+be that the latter levy covers a term of years.
+
+The Germans are provoked that the bank money got out of Belgium.  The
+Bank of Belgium sent its gold reserve to the Bank of England,
+600,000,000 francs, and Germany demanded that this reserve be
+transferred from England to a neutral country; but, of course, England
+refused.  There are some banks still doing business in Belgium, but the
+Belgians reject the German money except when obliged to take it.
+
+The Belgian stores remain closed for the major part, and the Germans
+threaten that unless the Belgians reopen and proceed with business they
+will confiscate the stores and sell them to Germans who will do
+business.  The people of Antwerp must be in bed by 9 o'clock.  The
+people of Liege are ordered to retire at 7 P.M.  No Belgian is
+permitted the use of a telephone, the entire system having been
+appropriated by the military authorities.
+
+The Germans have decreed German time, which is one hour different from
+that of London, but the Belgian people refuse to set over their watches
+and clocks.  The Belgian railroad system is different from that of the
+Germans,--left-handed tracks and a different system of signalling.  The
+Belgians refuse to do the bidding of the Germans and operate the
+railroads.  The Germans must move the trains themselves.
+
+The Germans do not hate the Belgians.  They simply pity them, that they
+were so shortsighted as not to accept German gold for right of passage
+through the country.  The German hate is reserved entirely for the
+English above all people on the surface of the globe.  In Belgium 200
+marks reward is offered for the capture of any Englishman found in that
+domain.
+
+The latest response to Bernhardi's book, "England the Vassal of
+Germany," is Kipling's poem in the King Albert book issued December 16
+to augment the Belgian Relief Fund.  I clip two verses:--
+
+  They traded with the careless earth,
+    And good return it gave;
+  They plotted by their neighbor's hearth
+    The means to make him slave.
+
+  When all was readied to their hand
+    They loosed their hidden sword
+  And utterly laid waste a land
+    Their oath was pledged to guard.
+
+After the German Kaiser sounded the battle sentiment of Europe by
+sending the warship "Panther" to Agadir three years ago in violation of
+the treaty of Algeciras, it was intimated by the French and the English
+that Belgian neutrality might be in danger; also that the Lord and the
+Allies helped those who help themselves.
+
+Therefore, a bill was introduced in Belgium's Capital providing for the
+raising of an army of 600,000 men where before were 46,000 and a war
+footing of 147,000.  The leader of the Catholic party opposed the
+programme, declaring that Belgian neutrality was guaranteed by Germany,
+France, and England.  A compromise was effected by which an army of
+less than half this number was authorized.
+
+When on Sunday evening, August 2d, at 7 P.M., the German ultimatum was
+handed to Belgium, she was given twelve hours or until morning to
+declare whether or not the country would be surrendered to the free
+passage of the German war battalions.  Belgium had then an army of
+200,000 men; 60,000 volunteers sprang to arms, and that 260,000 was the
+maximum Belgian army that attempted to withstand the millions of
+Germany's armed forces.  Even these were not effectively placed.  The
+30,000 men at the frontier were not sufficient to permit of any
+effective sorties to protect the approaches to the Liege
+fortifications.  It was a forlorn hope from a military standpoint, but
+for three weeks the Belgians with shrinking forces held in check the
+war power of Germany.  Every week help was expected from the Allies,
+but no help came, for no country in Europe outside of Germany and
+Austria had any expectation of war.
+
+Down to the ground and their graves fought the plucky little Belgians,
+until they numbered, not 260,000, but nearer 60,000.  After every
+able-bodied man in Belgium was demanded by King Albert, the ranks of
+the Belgians began to swell, and, with able-bodied refugees returned
+from England, there are now about 120,000 men in the ten divisions of
+the Belgian army.
+
+But England carries, as she ought, the financial burden.  She feeds,
+clothes, and equips the Belgians and furnishes the money-supply.  The
+Germans still strive, not so much against the Allies as against the
+English in Belgium.  Here the fighting is fiercest, casualties are
+greatest, and here the reinforcements on both sides are the greatest
+per mile of line.
+
+Meanwhile the more than a million Germans in Belgium have trenched
+across the whole country, rebuilt the forts at Namur, Liege, Antwerp,
+and other places, and are digging themselves into the ground doggedly
+and determinedly, and with as great precision and more science than the
+Allies.  The German trenches are rather better made and the machinery
+for trenching has been, of course, better prepared by the Germans.
+
+The great surprise of the war was the demonstration in Belgium that
+forts costing millions, in defense of cities, are absolutely useless
+against the big German shells.  The defense at Liege was prolonged
+because the Germans could not at first find the exact location of the
+central defense.  Finally a German approached bearing a large white
+flag of truce.  Belgian orders were given to receive him.  The German,
+under his flag of truce, signalled the desired information and then
+fell.  Soon after, fell the fort.  The Germans had found the desired
+range, and shot.  At Antwerp a single shell was able to put an entire
+fortress out of business.
+
+It is the Landwehr and the older men that have been called by Germany
+to do duty in Belgium, while the younger troops are sent back and forth
+between the eastern and western frontier defences.
+
+An American who has lately been all through Belgium, representing both
+commercial interests and charity work, tells me;--
+
+"I left America absolutely neutral.  I was not a student of the war or
+of the cause of the war.  What I saw in Belgium convinced me that the
+Allies must win and will win.  I am no longer neutral.  What I saw in
+Belgium of the wanton destruction of villages, towns, and cities has
+prejudiced me as no argument could have done.  The Allies' losses will
+begin when they take the offensive against the German works which are
+now being constructed.  Soon England will have 600,000 more men on the
+Continent and there will be more doing.
+
+"The losses of the Germans have been two or three times the losses of
+the Allies in the Belgian trenches, because the Germans have been the
+attacking parties.  If the Allies become the attacking parties they
+will have to sustain the heavy losses.  But I cannot see it otherwise
+than that the Allies must win.  The crime against Belgium is the
+greatest crime since Calvary, and it has set the whole world against
+Germany.
+
+"It is not only a crime, but it was a military error, for to-day
+Germany has 600 miles of front to defend, 300 east and 300 west, and
+her losses have been enormous.  At Liege 7000 Germans went down in a
+single day's fighting.  One man I met assisted to bury 500 Germans in
+front of a single trench.
+
+"I do not believe Brussels is mined; but if ever the Germans got into
+Paris they would destroy the whole city before they left.
+
+"I shudder to think what the Germans will suffer at the hands of the
+Belgians when once the rout of the Germans has been begun by the
+Allies.  The Belgians are unreconciled, and if they ever get weapons in
+their hands--well, I will not predict, I will just tell you one fact: I
+traveled the length and breadth of the land, saw the women and the
+children sitting by their ruined hearthstones, but I never saw a tear
+on the cheek of a Belgian."
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER IX
+
+RUSSIA AND THE RUSSIANS
+
+Russian Reforms--A United Russia--Russian Armaments--The Greatest
+Future--Two Water Outlets--The Slav Invasion Bugaboo.
+
+
+Russia also is likely to bring forth some notable men who have not
+previously been heard of before the world.  General Evanoff is the idol
+of the Russian army.  He is the strategist who plans the movements
+against Austria and Germany in the East, who surrounds Przemysl and
+says, "Now, we can take it when we please, but we will not sacrifice
+Russian troops to take it now; Cracow is more important.  Lodz is not
+important from a military standpoint.  We will surround it later."
+
+Evanoff orders his men to keep out of the valleys and engage the
+Germans in the open plain, where their own numbers will count in
+action; for in the valleys the German big guns have the advantage.
+
+Russia has been at work steadily since the Japanese war reforming her
+army within and without.  More than one third of her officers were
+dismissed after that war.  The Russian officials now say that the
+Japanese war was to Russia most providential.  It showed the lines of
+Russian weakness, inefficiency, and graft, which could flourish at a
+distance from St. Petersburg but became exposed when war put the
+Russian organization to the test.  Steadily every year Russia has been
+systematically and thoroughly routing out graft and inefficiency.  When
+Russia starts to do a thing she does it thoroughly.
+
+It was because Russia was rebuilding, reorganizing, and was indulging
+in criticism and putting its mind on the weak spots, that Russian
+confidential papers stolen in the interest of Germany misled both
+Berlin and Vienna as to the possibility of Russia going to war to
+defend Servia in the year 1914.
+
+War has united Russia as never before.  The Czar now moves about
+unattended, and the country is a unit behind him and the war and
+unitedly against the Germans.  From Warsaw to Siberia the German agents
+and merchants have been arrested and impounded.  Nobody in Germany can
+yet realize how this war has destroyed her commercial relations and
+commercial organizations throughout the world.  Everywhere German
+people are subjects of suspicion.  You will even hear in all
+seriousness that the Kaiser had an army of 150,000 reservists in the
+United States with a partial equipment of arms ready to attack Canada;
+and I have been told by supply agencies that these arms are now offered
+for sale, as the uselessness of any German movement on the American
+continent is apparent.
+
+How far Germany is unable to measure the spirit of the English-speaking
+people is shown by the fact that she cannot understand why the United
+States does not take this opportunity to possess Canada.
+
+I heard of a retired German-American of wealth, residing in Germany,
+who was actually invited to go to America to stir up a raid on Canada.
+Of course he obediently returned to the United States, and then he sat
+down to wonder how he could effectively report back the foolishness of
+such an idea without offense to Berlin.
+
+Russia has been perfecting her military organization for ten years.
+The expansion was to come in the next two years.  At the opening of the
+war she had only 2,500,000 available troops.  For two years she has
+been building factories to manufacture ammunition and arms, and these
+are now being rushed to completion.  People who have offered her
+contracts for arms and munitions have been told that Russian factories
+shortly to be completed will make their weapons more quickly than they
+can now be ordered and received from other countries.
+
+With arms and equipment Russia can draw 17,000,000 men to her
+German-Austrian frontier just as readily as Germany can draw 7,000,000
+men to both her frontiers.  In both calculations only one in ten of the
+population is counted upon for service.
+
+The story is told of a Russian who was asked in London why he did not
+return for military duty.  He replied, "Oh, I belong to the 14th
+million, and it will be some time before the 18th million is called
+out."
+
+Russia has the greatest future of any country in Europe.  She has the
+largest unturned arable soil of any country in the world.  Russia in
+Europe is a great agricultural plain.  To the east are her rich
+oil-fields steadily expanding north in the Ural Mountains, and east
+lies Siberia, endowed by nature as one of the richest countries in the
+world, an area in which you could deposit the United States.  From the
+Siberian railroad other railroads are now projected; mineral wealth is
+being uncovered; and English and French capital and American engineers
+will in the future work wonders with the country.
+
+What Russia has long sought is an outlet to the ocean.  This war is
+likely to give her benefits which she could never have asked and could
+only have fought for.  Germany, defeated, will lose the control or
+monopoly of the Kiel Canal, and possibly the country around it which
+she took from Denmark.  The Kiel Canal under international control will
+extend the Baltic Sea of the Russians and the Scandinavians most
+directly to the North Sea and the English Channel.
+
+To the south Russia will have something to say in Asia Minor and much
+to say concerning Constantinople.  Certainly her influence in the
+Balkan States and on the Bosphorus will be as great as she could
+desire.  As long as the Turks remained loyal to England, Great Britain
+was bound to maintain their integrity and hold upon Constantinople and
+the Bosphorus.  With the passing of the Turk Constantinople is in the
+hands of the Allies when they are victorious.  Its final disposition is
+not yet clear, but the English people can see compensation in Egypt,
+Asia Minor, and Persia for any necessary Russian control of Byzantium.
+
+While seeking one direct outlet by waterway, Russia may get two with
+the suicide of Germany and the destruction of her latest ally, the
+Mohammedan Turk.
+
+Russia is beginning to be better understood throughout the British
+Empire and the world.  The fear of an invasion of Western Europe by the
+Slav races is a bugaboo set afloat by Germany, who also propagates the
+bugaboo of a Japanese invasion of North America.
+
+Russia is not a competing nation.  She needs the capital and the brains
+of the outside world for her development, and in time she will offer
+the greatest field for world cooeperation.
+
+Japan wants to cooeperate with Russia, and, indeed, with all European
+civilization.  After the fall of Kiao-Chau she sent arms to Russia, and
+she stands ready to throw legions into the European field in defense of
+her English ally.  Influential people in England are strongly urging
+the military authorities to permit the little Japs to join in.
+
+Russia will keep faith with the Poles and the Jews and set up an
+autonomous Poland.  But there is a strong resentment in Russia to-day
+because the Polish Jews misled the Russian army in the marshy grounds
+of East Prussia in the early campaigns of the war.
+
+Russian military plans had to be changed and the field of war set
+farther south.  Here Russia hopes to drive the five million people of
+Silesia back toward Berlin.  This will awaken the Junkers of East
+Prussia and bring home to the people of Germany what the Prussian
+military machine really invites when it attempts a world-conquest.
+
+Russia lacks military railroads and scientific means of communication.
+But just as America was surprised ten years ago to find the Japs, as
+the ally of England, giving, as the English predicted, "a good account
+of themselves," so the Russians as the allies of Great Britain may be
+found giving a very good account of themselves in this war.  Russia is
+certainly unconquerable from either the Austrian or the German
+standpoint, and the smashing of Austria between Russia, Roumania,
+Servia, and Italy may be the real military campaign of this most
+Audacious War.
+
+American engineers and diplomats familiar with Russia declare that,
+properly led, the Russian soldier is the greatest fighter in the world;
+and he is getting that leadership now.
+
+The Russians expect the war will be over before next autumn, but
+Kitchener does not plan to end it then.  He means to do this job
+thoroughly, and his plans are most comprehensive.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER X
+
+THE ENGLISH POSITION
+
+A Quiet London--The Call to Arms--No Mourning--The Zeppelin
+Scare--German Spies--The German Landing--Kultur War Indemnities.
+
+
+It is worth a winter trip across the Atlantic to stand with a London
+audience and hear it respond to the call, "Are we downhearted?" with a
+thunderous "NO!"
+
+It is then you first realize that the British Empire is at war; and
+what that war means; and that that Empire has piped to its defense a
+free people inhabiting one fifth of the territory of the globe.
+
+The British Empire has war upon its hands a major part of the time.  It
+may be in the Soudan; it may be in South Africa.  From some quarter of
+the globe war is almost always before the Empire.  But a war summoning
+the whole British Empire to arms on land and sea,--that has not been
+dreamed of for a hundred years.
+
+You expect to find in London an armed camp, the flags flying, the drums
+beating, the troops marching; an excited people discussing causes and
+effects of the military and naval programmes; military encampments with
+white tents over the plains.  But you find nothing of the sort.  If you
+attempt to motor in the country and figure on reaching a certain place
+in two hours, you may find it takes you four, as you are very likely to
+run into troops, companies, regiments, and armies in training, but
+mostly without arms and only partially uniformed.  They are trudging
+the highways and the lanes of England from 5.30 A.M. until dusk,--rain
+or shine.  Here is Kitchener's army being put into condition, with no
+fuss, feathers, or trumpet beats.  The army is "rolling up" and
+"hardening up."  But not on the tented campus.  It is quartered in the
+towns and villages all over England, and board and lodging is regularly
+paid by the government.
+
+There are no noticeable drum beats over England; no displays of
+bunting.  Monuments, public buildings, and conspicuous corners, and,
+most conspicuous of all, the glass fronts of the taxi-cabs, bear signs
+calling the men of England to arms:--
+
+"Fall in--Join the Army at once."
+
+"Your King and Country need you.  England expects that every man this
+day will do his duty."
+
+"Enlist for the duration of the War."
+
+"Enlist for three years."
+
+"You are needed to fight for Honor and the Country's defense."
+
+"No price can be too high when Honor and Freedom are at stake."
+
+"Who dies if England lives?"
+
+"He gives twice who gives quickly--join at once."
+
+"'More men and still more until the enemy is crushed.'--Lord Kitchener."
+
+And many more of the same tenor.  Beyond these you will see little
+evidence in the London streets of an empire at war.  Hotels are largely
+empty; managers very polite; restaurants must close at 10. P.M.; no
+after-theater supper at the hotels unless you are a guest.  Men in
+khaki uniforms are more conspicuous; and bandaged heads, slung arms,
+and legs assisted by crutches are more noticeable than formerly.
+
+The searchlights flash above the city; the street lights are shaded
+overhead in foolish fancy as a protection from aeroplanes or
+dirigibles.  Curtains are closely drawn by police orders, in the houses
+and railway trains.
+
+Yet one of the airmen who had been over London at night told me that
+the city was just as conspicuous as though it were wide open in
+illumination.  Indeed, there is a general call among the Londoners for
+the police to let up and permit electric signs, lighted windows, and
+more light in the streets.  But the only answer that came early in
+December was orders to turn down the lights further!
+
+In Paris they turned on the lights, illuminated the streets, closed up
+the museums and galleries, buried their art and sent the Venus de Milo
+on a walk to some storage vault along with the banks' reserve gold.
+London's museums and picture galleries are wide open, and the endeavor
+to protect the streets from Germans peering down from above looks
+childish.  The great strategy of the Germans consists of talking across
+the Channel about their plans for raiding England.  I suspect that the
+English military authorities do not object.  It encourages enlistment.
+When enlistment gets dull, the Germans stimulate it with some shells
+thrown on the English coast.
+
+There are only two or three new plays in London this season; the great
+war-plays and dramas, and indeed the literature of this war, have yet
+to be written.  Nearly all the new presentations for which London is so
+famous were set back on the shelf when the business of war started.
+Most of the theater programs are revivals of old favorites, and a few
+of the theaters are still closed.  All that are open begin promptly at
+8 P.M.  Five hundred English actors have gone to the front.
+
+You have to make the circuit to find the heart of England at war, but
+you find it--horse, foot, and dragoons; men, women, and children.  "Are
+we downhearted?" answered by a thunderous "No!"  Then again silence,
+and turning down of the lights, and the steady work! work! work!
+
+"Have you a bed here?" said Kitchener when he entered the War Office.
+"Never heard of such a thing here," was the response.
+
+"Get one," said Kitchener; "I have no time for clubs and hotels."
+
+Not only Kitchener but the whole staff camped down in the office,
+working days, nights, and Sundays, until Lady ---- turned over her
+house nearby to Kitchener and his staff.
+
+"Where is ----?" I asked of his next-door neighbor.  The response was,
+"Oh, he is at the War Office, and gets a Sunday home with his family
+about once in six weeks."  That family was not fifteen miles from
+London.
+
+When a citizen has been suddenly notified that where he could formerly
+get a train for home every fifteen minutes, the railroad has been taken
+for military service, and he must get his supper in town, there is not
+the slightest word of complaint.  He only wishes he could contribute
+more to the Empire.
+
+I spoke with Lord K., of B---- & Co., concerning the loss of his eldest
+son, as I had known Lord K. for many years.  The manner, the gesture,
+the speech, in response, were all one, and brief; just an indication of
+sacrifice that had to be made for the Empire; and that sacrifice had
+only just begun; deaths in the family just honorable incidents in the
+life of the Empire.
+
+You see crutches and broken heads in London, but you will see no
+mourning.
+
+"Yes," said Lord C. to me, "the average income tax in England is now
+doubled until it is one eighth, or about 12 1/2 per cent, but my
+friends in the banking world have to pay an increasing supertax.  I
+know many who must now give one quarter of their income to the
+government.  They not only do it gladly, but expect it will be a half
+next year, and they will contribute that just as gladly."
+
+From the top to the bottom in the Empire, all that is asked at the
+present time is a protected food and clothing supply, and everything
+else can go into "the cauldron of war."
+
+"Did you ever see anything like it?" said an American banker in London
+to me.  "Are n't these people wonderful?  Did you ever see such
+resolution, such steady work, such sacrifices, such unity of empire?"
+
+It was indeed worth a winter's trip across the ocean to see it.
+
+Although the newspapers complained of the censorship, there was only
+one general complaint from the people in the British press.  They
+wanted to know what the regulations were, or were to be, concerning
+self-defense when the Germans arrive in the country.  Should a citizen
+without uniform take up arms against the invaders?  Had he a right
+individually to shoot a German invader?  Was the old rule that an
+Englishman's home is his castle, and that he has the right to defend
+it, now superseded by any rules of international warfare?
+
+Some independent people of note were declaiming in the public prints
+that any German invader of England was a thief and a robber and that
+any weapons might be used to attack the invaders; and that there was no
+rule of warfare that could prevent an Englishman defending his home by
+any weapons against any foreign invaders.
+
+Nevertheless the spirit of the people was, even under invasion, to
+respect law and order and rules of warfare, and be guided by the
+government as to all forms of individual or collective defenses.  They
+simply wanted the rules promulgated.
+
+The English are reconciled to Zeppelin raids from Germany, and rather
+expect them.  But there is yet no unanimity in preparation or action.
+The Rothschilds have put four feet of sand on the roof of their
+building, but the amount of their gold in store must be incomparably
+less than that in the Bank of England, where no precautions are visible.
+
+Trenches by the beaches and barricades by the highways are noticeable
+along the entire south and east coasts of England, but they are without
+stores or equipment.  You run across these trenches in the moonlight as
+you journey about the country and for the moment you wonder for what
+purpose somebody dug those long ditches by the shore, and what the
+trench or irrigation scheme is.  Your answer comes when you run
+straight into a timber barricade across the highway nearby.  Then you
+look down the coast and see flashing searchlights, note the lights of
+steamers passing up and down the coast, and reflect that there is no
+universal law in war.  The Channel steamers are carrying lights in the
+war area, but the North Atlantic steamers still cross the ocean without
+showing even port or starboard lights.  The street cars moving in the
+English coast cities must, of course, be lighted and the streets must
+have some illuminant; but the railroad carriages, hotels, and private
+houses must draw their curtains.  Yet railroad terminals and piers must
+have their lights, and harbors must have their searchlights.  General
+service lights must be ablaze, but individual glimmers must be
+curtained.  It reminds one of Cowper, the English poet, who, in the
+same kennel, cut a big hole for his big dog and a little hole for the
+pup.
+
+The most talked-of war subject in England is the German spy system.  It
+is estimated there were between 30,000 and 40,000 German spies, and
+many times this number of German reservists, in England at the outbreak
+of the war.  For years England has laughed over German theoretical
+discussions of how best to invade England, and German studies of
+English coast lines and country resources.
+
+I heard years ago of a young Englishman who disputed in Berlin the
+war-office plans of his father's estate.  He declared that he thought
+he ought to know the land where he was born and brought up as a boy,
+and that there were only two springs of water thereon, instead of
+three.  The German general staff said their maps of England were
+correct and were not based on English authority.  The young man found
+on his return to England that the German maps were correct and that his
+father's estate had three springs whence men and horses could be
+watered, although his family had never noted the existence of a third.
+
+Two years ago some friends of mine were playing tennis in an English
+village and inquired the occupation of two young Germans, who seemed to
+be good tennis-players, but without family relations or settled
+business.
+
+The response of the hostess was: "Oh, they are just two German spies of
+good education and charming manner looking over the country here, and
+we find them very useful in making up our tennis tournaments."  It was
+looked upon as just a part of the German map-making plans, and England
+was an open book for anybody to map.  Baedeker published the
+guide-books of the world: why should n't the Germans make all the maps
+of the world,--especially if German map-making were cheaper than
+English map-making?
+
+A banker friend of mine found two young Germans in his village, with no
+other occupation than motoring the country over and making notes and
+sketches of cross-roads, railroad junction-points, important buildings,
+bridges, etc.  He thought the authorities ought to know what was going
+on, but received a polite invitation from the local police to mind his
+own business.  When once he lost his way on a motor-car trip, and ran
+across these fellows, he was very glad to get the right directions for
+the shortest way home.  They knew more about the roads of that country
+than did the people who were born there.
+
+About 20,000 German spies and reservists are in detention camps on the
+west coast, and on the islands.  Even the German prisoners are kept
+away from the east coast, where it is expected the Germans may
+eventually struggle for their landing.
+
+I have not the slightest confidence in any invasion of England by
+Germany, but I do not understand why German Zeppelins do not move in
+the darkness over the British Isles and drop a few bombs about the
+country at important places.  It may be that the German Emperor is
+right in his calculation that such action would do very little damage,
+and would strengthen tremendously the enlistments and war-expansion
+plans of the English.
+
+When West Hartlepool, Whitby, and Scarborough were bombarded by the
+German warships on the morning of December 16, the English excitement
+concerning it was only a small part of what an American would have
+expected.  Not far from this bombarded coast is a summer resort town,
+where for many years a legend has existed that when in some future age
+England decayed and Germany came in, this would be the first
+landing-point.
+
+An Englishman two or three years ago took it upon himself to find out
+how far this legend might have its base in any near invasion.  He
+looked up the record and found that all the leading summer hotels and
+strategic points were in the hands of Germans.  Then one day he quickly
+addressed his German waiter in his native tongue, demanding to know
+where his post was in that town in the event of hostilities.  Promptly
+the German replied, "Down at the schoolhouse!"  Further investigation
+showed that every reservist had his allotted place before and after the
+landing, and his place in the civic organization to follow.  The
+Germans had also compiled lists of the people of property in that
+vicinity and exactly the character and amount of resources that could
+be commandeered from them.
+
+If the Germans were free to map England, why should they not be free to
+map all its resources, individually as well as collectively?
+
+I know a building in the heart of the London financial district that
+carries on its roof a Zeppelin-destroyer gun.  A few days before I was
+last in this building a fine-looking fellow in khaki uniform entered in
+haste and asked the janitor to show him to the roof that he might
+quickly inspect that gun and see that everything was in order, as raids
+might be expected at any moment.  Of course, he was taken to the roof,
+and his inspection quickly completed.  Ten minutes later the London
+police were there to inquire for a man in khaki uniform.
+
+The English officer said, "Very singular, we are ten minutes behind
+that fellow everywhere.  He is the cleverest of all the German spies,
+and we are not able to catch him!"
+
+If that spy had been caught in his English uniform inspecting English
+defenses, would not everything have been kept quiet in the endeavor to
+pick up the lines of his foreign communications?
+
+In writing home from England, even to my family, toward the close of
+1914, I thought it just as well to be brief and not too definite with
+any information.  I had seen some of the censorship regulations and
+envelopes resealed with a paper bearing heavy black letters, "Opened by
+censor," with the number of the censor, showing that there are more
+than one hundred people engaged in this work; and also directions from
+the censorship that "responses to this inquiry must be submitted,"
+etc., etc.
+
+Nobody could believe until this war broke out and there descended upon
+peaceful Belgium not only armies and demands for their shelter,
+maintenance and food, and drink, but also huge demands for financial
+indemnification--war tax levies upon cities, towns, and provinces, with
+individuals held as hostages for their payment--that German war plans
+meant the looting, not only of nations and states, but of individual
+fortunes and properties.
+
+It now seems that the march to Paris through Belgium and the imposition
+of a huge redemption tax upon Paris and France were but the
+preliminaries to larger demands upon London and England.
+
+Indeed, judged by the demands upon Belgium, the German plans
+contemplated the transfer of the wealth of France and the British
+Empire to Germany; and such enslavement of these peoples as would make
+Germany rich, powerful and triumphant for many generations, if not
+forever, over the whole habitable globe.  The German minister at
+Washington sounded a true German note when he asked who should question
+the right of Germany to take Canada and the British possessions in
+North America.  Were they not at war, and if Germany were able, should
+she not possess them?
+
+It had been understood before this war that countries were invaded
+under ideas of national defense.  But possession of countries for the
+absorption of their wealth and the enslavement of their people, to work
+thereafter for the victors, was believed a barbarism from which this
+world had long ago emerged in the struggle for the freedom of the
+individual.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XI
+
+ENGLISH WAR FORCES
+
+The Men at the Front--The Recruiting--English Losses--Horses and
+Ships--War Supplies--Barring the Germans.
+
+
+I really admire the English censorship and the manner in which it can
+withhold information from the English people, and I see the usefulness
+of much of the withholdings.  You are some days in England before you
+realize that there are now no weather reports--not even for Channel
+crossings.  Nobody really cared for them in London.  Everybody there
+knew what the weather was, and nobody could tell what it was to be.  If
+reports were printed, they would fool only the German Zeppelins; but
+cable reports might be quite another thing.  So you can't cable your
+family: "Weather fine, come over."
+
+Of course Germany should not be allowed to know the English forces,
+their exact number and distribution.  I was told over and over again in
+good newspaper quarters in London that the English had only 100,000 men
+at the front, and did not propose to have any more until Kitchener led
+his army of a million men or more to the Continent next spring.
+
+I, of course, said nothing, but I knew a great deal better, both from
+War-Office sources and from contact with the English officers in France.
+
+It would not be right, although information was not given me in
+confidence, to attempt to name the exact number and position of troops
+Kitchener had on the Continent toward the close of December.  But I may
+tell what anybody was free to pick up on French soil.  I asked an
+English officer of good rank how many men the English had at the front
+and he responded promptly 220,000 at the front, and 50,000 on the lines
+of communication.  He was right for that date in early December, but
+later more troops were sent over.  Indeed, they were quietly going and
+coming all the time across the Channel, and, notwithstanding losses,
+the number at the front was being steadily augmented.  There were also
+troops in training on French soil, and 550,000 in condition for
+shipment from England.
+
+Kitchener is one of the greatest reserve-supply men in the world.  He
+is a natural-born banker; he keeps his eye on his reserves fully as
+much as on his activities, and perhaps more so.
+
+When he called for 100,000 troops the British public became weary and
+demanded to know how long before he would get them.  This gave an
+impression throughout the world that English recruiting was very slow;
+but when forced to show down his hand, Kitchener had to admit that
+under the call for 100,000 men he had accepted many more and was still
+accepting.
+
+Then they raised the call to a million, and in December Kitchener had
+more than 1,000,000 men under that call, but I was particular to
+ascertain that he had not made a call for a second million.  It was all
+under the call for 1,000,000 men to arm.
+
+But I did learn from authoritative sources that a house-to-house
+canvass, and millions of circulars sent out, had received responses
+that showed the War Office where the number of recruits, or men in
+training, could be quickly put above 2,000,000 the moment there was
+need or room for them.
+
+When England sent her first expeditionary force of 100,000 men to the
+Continent there was no public report of how steadily it was augmented.
+The official announcement was simply that the line should not be
+diminished and that all losses should be made good.
+
+An American acquaintance of mine, whom I found in France fighting in
+the uniform of the English, had made the declaration from his quick
+perception of the situation at the outset that if before January 1 the
+English should have sent over only another 100,000 men, they would have
+only 100,000 left there at the end of the year.
+
+I found his estimate of losses correct.  The English casualties at the
+end of 1914 were over 100,000,--killed, wounded, prisoners, and
+missing,--or fully the number of the first Expeditionary Force.
+
+Yet every week and every month the forces of the English grew larger
+and never smaller.  The filling in of the gaps and the augmentation of
+the English forces and their maintenance, munitions, and supplies was
+but the smaller part of the work of the War Office.
+
+The great problem was to compass the situation as a worldwide war and
+summon and put into an effective fighting machine the resources of the
+Empire.
+
+"Not alone the men but the machinery," said Kitchener, "must win this
+war."
+
+England had to put into operation machinery, financial and diplomatic,
+machinery of men, guns, and transportation, belting the whole world and
+bringing the whole forward as a complete organization, yielding here
+and pressing forward there, but always firmly pressing to the one
+desired end--the crushing, crumpling and destroying of the war
+machinery of Germany.  At the beginning England could not turn out
+10,000 rifles a week; and a rifle can shoot well for only about 1000
+rounds.  Yet in December a single contractor in England was turning out
+40,000 a week, and every possible contractor there and elsewhere had
+his hands full.
+
+Kitchener must compass every detail from the rifle to the supply base;
+from the seasoned wood for that rifle right down to the number of
+troops he must have on the Continent when it comes to a settlement;
+for, says Kitchener, "You cannot draw unless you hold cards."
+
+The broad sweep of the English preparations may be indicated by this:
+that when war broke out England not only commandeered horses in every
+city, village, and highway of England, taking them from carriages and
+from under the saddle, but started buying them over the seas.  Of
+English shipping she gathered into her war-fold such a number of boats
+as I do not dare to repeat.  She gathered in under the admiralty flag
+so many steamships from the mercantile marine that those which were
+found most expensive to operate were soon turned back into the channels
+of trade.  With the many hundred steamers that she commandeered she set
+about transporting everything needed, including horses, from over the
+ocean.
+
+The French bought their horses by the thousand in Texas and contracted
+at good prices for their shipment to Bordeaux.  Steamship rates became
+almost prohibitive, and the horses arrived from their long journey in
+poor condition.  England inspected the horses in America, paid for
+them, and then put them in charge of her own men on her own ships, and
+landed them by the shortest routes in England and on the Continent, in
+prime condition.
+
+Although Germany had been buying liberally of horses in Ireland as
+early as March, when the long arm of Great Britain reached out there
+was no failure in her mounts for the cannon and cavalry divisions.  For
+good horses at home and abroad she did not hesitate to pay as high as
+$350.
+
+Americans should not forget that this war has brought about the
+greatest contraction in ocean tonnage that has ever been seen.  I
+estimate that about one fourth of the world's oversea tonnage has been
+commandeered, interned, or put out of service.  Before the war the
+Germans had nearly one eighth of the world's mercantile tonnage.  That
+is now interned, destroyed, or tied up, outside the trade on the
+Baltic.  As much more has been taken by the Allies from the mercantile
+to the war marine.  It must also be figured that the Baltic and other
+seas hold locked-in ships, and the bottom of the sea likewise holds
+some more.
+
+Considering the sudden demand upon the world's mercantile tonnage and
+its sudden curtailment, it is surprising that ocean commerce has not
+been more interfered with or made to pay even higher rates than the
+abnormal ones now existing.
+
+Of war-tonnage, besides three superdreadnoughts purchased and four
+finished before the end of 1914, the British have under construction to
+be finished in 1915 ten battleships of from 25,500 to 27,500 tons,
+armed with 15-inch guns.  The French have finished four of 23,000 tons,
+with 13 1/2-inch guns, and are finishing three more.  The Russians are
+at work upon six of 23,000 tons, with 12-inch guns.  The Japanese are
+building one superdreadnought of 30,000 tons, with 14-inch guns, and
+three battle-cruisers of 27,500 tons and 27-knot speed, with 14-inch
+guns.
+
+Churchill, it will be remembered, figured that England could lose one
+battleship each month and still maintain her full strength.  While the
+building of war-tonnage seems to be well in hand, there is no
+corresponding replacement of mercantile tonnage.
+
+I have the highest authority for the statement that the world possesses
+no machinery at the present time to manufacture war-material at the
+rate at which the nations of Europe have been using it during the first
+hundred days of the war.
+
+At one time the German armies were exploding 120,000 shells a day in
+France and Belgium.  The response from the French alone was 80,000
+shells a day, and General Joffre made a request that his supply be put
+up to 100,000 per day.  This is for shells of all sizes, and the
+estimate to me was of an average cost of two pounds, or ten dollars,
+per shell.  Some of the big German shells cost as high as $500 each.
+In some kinds of shrapnel, holding 300 bullets, there are more than
+thirty pieces of mechanism.
+
+Within forty-eight hours after England declared war she had engaged the
+total output of an American manufacturer, whose machinery was an
+important part of the shell-making business.  An American factory in
+Connecticut received orders for $25,000,000 worth of cartridges which
+would mean, at five cents a cartridge, 500,000,000 rounds of
+ammunition.  I know of a single order to America from England for
+10,000,000 horseshoes.
+
+Through a single agency in America more than $150,000,000 worth of
+war-supplies was placed several weeks ago.  I do not know whether this
+included a single order, of which I have knowledge, for 3,000,000
+American rifles, delivered over three years at $30 a rifle, or
+$90,000,000.  The company receiving this order had to work so quickly
+to install new machinery that old buildings were dynamited to clear the
+land.
+
+Such orders to America are bound to tell upon our exports, and,
+combined with the advance in food-stuffs, the loss in cotton values by
+the outbreak of the war is offset more than twice over.
+
+America must feel the effect of these orders when the goods go forward
+in increasing quantities.  They are paid for as promptly as shipped.
+Many an American factory has been put on three eight-hour shifts for
+the day's work on these orders.
+
+A Southern manufacturer received an order for 5000 dozen pairs of socks
+to be shipped weekly for six months.  The price was under $1.00 per
+dozen, with ten per cent of wool in them.  He complained that he was
+making only twenty cents per dozen profit, while if he had not been so
+anxious for the order, he might just as well have got a price that
+would have shown more than twice this profit.
+
+In boots and shoes, England, instead of giving orders to this country,
+has been buying leather in America, and filling all her own factories.
+It is the policy of England to fill every workshop in her tight little
+island before she permits business to overflow.
+
+To-day there are no unemployed in Great Britain, except in the cotton
+districts dependent upon German trade.  Wage advances and overtime are
+the rule rather than the exception.  The one country that the warring
+world must turn to for supplies is the United States, and that in
+increasing measure.  Orders for $300,000,000 of war goods already
+received must be duplicated several times.
+
+Every American automobile manufacturer able to deliver motor-trucks in
+lots of one hundred, has received his orders for shipments to the
+Allies.
+
+Germany has now no base from which to get many important supplies.  In
+a long contest the Allies will supply motor-cars, shells, guns, and
+ammunition to a far greater extent than Germany can manufacture them.
+Factories for this work are expanding in both Russia and America.  The
+English do not speak against the Germans as a people.  They believe
+them seriously misled by Prussian militarism, which they declare must
+be crushed absolutely.
+
+Where formerly England was an open door to Germans and suspicions
+against German spies were laughed at, the bars are now sharply up.
+Most of the golfing clubs have voted to suspend the activities of
+members with German antecedents.
+
+At the clubs in Pall Mall, notices have been posted requesting members
+not to introduce during the war Germans or those of German descent.
+
+Membership on the Stock Exchange is not continuous as in this country,
+and at the March elections in 1915 there will be a dropping out of
+German names.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XII
+
+ENGLISH WAR FINANCE
+
+Protecting Trade and the Trader--How German Banks Paid--The English
+Loan--England's Wealth--The Income Tax--More Taxes.
+
+
+A giant Atlas bearing the civilized world on its financial shoulders
+has arisen between the North and the Irish seas.  That is the picture
+that stands at the opening of 1915, where before Germany had endeavored
+to stamp the label "Perfidious and degraded nation of shopkeepers."
+
+Only the pencil of a Dore could sketch this giant and put him in
+figures of proper relief as, aroused from his pastime of trade and the
+acquisition of shillings, he summons with one hand the resources of the
+empire and with the other passes them out to needy warring nations,
+taking care all the while that the necessary dealing of exchange and
+commerce have the least possible disturbance.
+
+Kitchener says the war may last for two years, but he is making
+preparations for three years, and must do this job so thoroughly that
+no repetition will be required.
+
+If it is war for three years, then this mighty financial Atlas of
+England is preparing to write its name on promises to pay more gold
+than all the money-gold on the surface of the earth today.  And England
+won't hesitate to do it if necessary--not for one moment.
+
+How can she advance money to Russia, Belgium, France, and other
+countries at war or just going into the war, and ask no foreign
+assistance, no overseas help,--except to be let alone,--expand her home
+trade and wages, pay with a lavish hand, and still pile up real gold
+both at home and over the ocean?
+
+The first answer is because she does expand trade; because she does pay
+and pay promptly; and because she does protect her own trade.
+
+The United States does not protect its trade or its citizens anywhere
+in the world to-day.  It shivers in war-time, and borrows of everybody
+else when it has a panic of its own.
+
+There is only one way to make trade, and that is to pay and protect.
+England, through centuries of fighting to protect both trade and the
+trader, has learned the way to the highest freedom in both trade and
+finance.
+
+Therefore, before this most Audacious War was set afoot England had a
+very small stock of coin gold but a very large stock of gold
+credit-bills.
+
+For years England has held in her cash box from $1,800,000,000 to
+$2,500,000,000 of the commercial credits of the world.  With goods and
+trade-honor behind these promises to pay gold, she had no need of the
+metal but only of command of the seas, that her gold might come in when
+needed.  When the war broke out, $600,000,000 of these gold promises to
+pay were of German and Austrian origin.  The big London bankers who had
+their names on the back of such acceptances could not in honor
+underwrite any more commercial bills.  They knew their capital was
+involved in collection of those already out.
+
+But Britain said the commerce of England must go on as well as the war.
+The people who held these acceptances were promptly invited to turn
+them into the Bank of England, which held the guaranty of Great Britain
+behind it, and receive the money therefor; the discount rate after
+maturity to have 2 per cent added thereto, 1 per cent to go to the Bank
+for expenses and 1 per cent to the government for reserve fund to cover
+any losses.  Of such bills $600,000,000 were promptly discounted.
+
+I hear that two banks, the London City & Midland with its $525,000,000
+of deposits, and Lloyds' Bank, both refused to rediscount.  They
+believed the investments in commercial paper they had made were
+perfectly good, and that they were as well able as the Bank to wait for
+payment until one year after the war if necessary.
+
+But to date more than half of these rediscounted bills have been paid.
+
+It may be of financial interest to narrate how payments could be
+accomplished when by the King's orders there could not be any "dealings
+with the enemy" and payment to either side was forbidden by both.  Yet
+the Dresdner Bank and other big German and Austrian banks have to date
+met fully one half their London obligations.
+
+They were enabled to do this because their London branches were
+independent institutions whose independence was recognized by the
+British government.  The London branches were thus liquidated,
+collecting in and meeting their obligations at maturity, so far as
+possible.
+
+Liquidation in acceptances is one of the keys to the success of the
+English loan.  While England had the ability before the war to discount
+$2,500,000,000 of acceptances, and with the present expanded base of
+the Bank would, without war, have the ability to discount
+$3,000,000,000, or three times our national debt, there is now no large
+business offering.  The discount credits can therefore be measurably
+turned to the war-loan account.  One of the biggest acceptance houses
+in London told me that the post-moratorium bills, or the new
+acceptances made after the moratorium, could not amount to more than
+80,000,000 pounds, or $400,000,000.
+
+With the liquidation on account of pre-moratorium bills and the absence
+of new business I should estimate that the London money market was able
+to take care of the 350,000,000 pounds loan put forth in November by
+the government without much regard to the investing community.
+
+With expanding trade and confidence, English investment interests can
+absorb the major part of this huge loan before next summer, when
+another loan of about equal size must be put forth, according to
+present calculations.  This second loan will probably be for three or
+four hundred millions pounds sterling, bear 4 per cent, and issue at
+par.  The November loan was issued at 95 per cent and it was announced
+in Parliament that the Bank of England would loan the issue price at
+one per cent under the Bank rate.
+
+That the loan was fully subscribed is not contradicted by the small
+fraction of discount soon quoted on the full-paid loan.  One could
+fully pay the loan, taking the discounts on undue maturities and sell
+at a fraction under 95 and still make a profit.
+
+I believe the estimate of an annual English surplus for investment of
+$2,000,000,000 per annum is far too low.  This figure is upon the basis
+that only about 20 per cent of the river of interest, dividends, and
+profits flowing annually to British pocket-books is available for
+reinvestment.
+
+In the present war stress and with economy practised to-day more by the
+capitalist classes than the laboring classes, the amount of money for
+reinvestment should be far greater than this.
+
+English finance will cut its cloth according to the pattern.  If there
+is only $2,000,000,000 per annum of surplus earnings to put into the
+war, that money will be spent; and if England has 50 or 100 per cent
+more, that money likewise will be spent, but spent so judiciously that
+the largest possible sum from it is kept in channels of English trade.
+The British Empire will work and finance the fight thus within a
+circle, and right on its own base.
+
+The surprising thing is that it can be called upon to extend financial
+help to its allies.  But everybody except Germany was caught absolutely
+unprepared.  The war was early on French soil, tying up the resources
+of some of the richest provinces of France.  Russia had so little
+thought of war that, as I have previously explained, she had deposited
+from her great gold reserve so that it had been loaned out on time and
+therefore was not available for the start of the war.  Hence we have
+the spectacle of Russia gathering up 8,000,000 pounds sterling in gold
+and sending it to the Bank of England and, on this basis, borrowing of
+the Bank 20,000,000 pounds sterling.
+
+Of course, this is good banking and good business and a good alliance.
+The Allies are bunching their war orders and credits, and England is
+entitled to hold the bag since she is carrying the financial burden.
+
+England's war finance is not wholly measured in her expenses or loans
+to other countries.  In a single issue of a London paper you can count
+daily reports of more than a dozen charitable funds connected with the
+war-work.  These funds range all the way from "Aid to the
+Mine-Sweepers," "Gloves for the Soldiers," and the "Servian Relief and
+Montenegrin Red Cross Funds" up to the "Prince of Wales's Fund."
+
+This last was over $20,000,000 before Christmas.  The suddenness of
+this war may be illustrated by this fact: A friend of mine, who is
+managing director of a big English concern, has assumed the
+responsibility for seven years past of keeping in England one year's
+supply of everything that his company was likely to require from the
+Continent.  This was at a cost to his company of many thousands of
+dollars.  With dogged determination he stuck to the same policy for
+1914, although in January of that year it was clear to him that Germany
+could not afford to go to war.  While he was happy over his judgment,
+he admitted in conversation with me in December, 1914, that in January,
+1914, the outlook was less indicative of a general European war than it
+had been for many years.
+
+Thirty per cent of the workmen of his factory had gone to the war and
+his company was providing 250,000 pounds sterling a year to maintain
+the wages of the workmen at war up to the same amount as they would
+receive if they had stayed at home.  He said that in one of his
+offices, of 80 men eligible for the work, 78 had enlisted, and, what
+was wonderful, the women were glad to take up the heavy work abandoned
+by the men,--something they would have refused to do in all ordinary
+times.  On the whole, the output of this concern and its efficiency
+were materially increased, not diminished, by the war.
+
+It is figured that troops at the front mean an expenditure of one pound
+per man per day, and that English troops in training mean an
+expenditure of not less than ten shillings per man per day.
+
+The war expenses of Great Britain must thus be above one million pounds
+per day and steadily increasing.  Indeed, the best economic estimate I
+have of the cost of the war to England is 500,000,000 pounds the first
+year.
+
+While the English declare that they are fighting for their children and
+their grandchildren, they are not willing to leave to them the full
+load of the war-cost, and gladly do they assume all possible burdens in
+the present time.
+
+The income tax, which began in 1842 at two pence in the pound, has now
+been doubled from one shilling and three pence to two shillings and six
+pence in the pound.  This is on the average, and takes nearly one
+eighth of a man's income.  There are very great variations in this tax.
+The rate I have given is the rate on dividends.  Upon wages and
+salaries the tax is somewhat less.
+
+The income tax is also apportioned over a three years' average.  The
+supertax raises the contribution of the wealthy to one fourth of their
+incomes, although on the average it is figured to take only an eighth.
+
+It is expected that the income tax may be further increased, possibly
+doubled, next year.  I was not surprised therefore to find American
+millionaires with houses in London returning to New York and making
+sure of their American citizenship.
+
+Every penny in the pound in the tax rate produces 2,500,000 pounds
+sterling, or $12,500,000, nearly one half the national income tax of
+the United States for 1913.  Indeed, the English income tax for the
+year ending March 31,1915, is estimated to produce 75,000,000 pounds
+sterling, or about twelve times the income tax of the United States and
+from less than half the number of people.  In other words, the income
+tax of Great Britain per capita is this year twenty-five times that of
+the United States.
+
+But still the United States is really in no need either of income tax
+or of war-machinery.  It is too late for the United States to prepare
+for any contest with the one nation that goes to war over
+tariffs--Germany.
+
+After this war and a settlement of the Mexican situation, warships will
+be for sale at fifty cents on the dollar.  Germany will have no navy of
+consequence, and England will reduce her present navy by at least one
+half, since her expansion of late years has been forced entirely by
+Germany.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XIII
+
+GERMAN RESOURCES
+
+The Food-Supply--War Expenses--The Copper Supply--The Call for Gold--No
+Outside Resources--The Human Sacrifice.
+
+
+Counting Montenegro and Servia as two nations, there are now seven
+countries at war against Germany, Austria, and Turkey, and two more,
+possibly three, may join in within a few weeks.  If Greece enters the
+battle-line, it will be ten nations against three.  When Roumania and
+Italy join the Allies, as is now being diplomatically arranged, Germany
+will be completely surrounded, with Switzerland, Holland, and Denmark
+in a measure locked in and powerless to give aid or assistance to the
+Germans.  Indeed, these three smaller countries and Scandinavia are
+practically locked in now, with the North Sea placed in the war zone,
+and Italy as well as Denmark and Holland shutting out all contraband
+goods for reexport to Germany and Austria.
+
+Thus we have the spectacle of two nations of more than 115,000,000
+people actually surrounded and besieged.  Jointly these two nations in
+occupation of their entire territory could feed themselves from their
+own soil.  They cannot be starved out, as in a besieged city, for lack
+of bread, meat, or drink.  But the siege at the present time is not
+against the people of Germany and Austria: it is against the
+war-machine of Germany.  This war-machine can be starved out when cut
+off from gold, copper, rubber, and oils.  If these cannot be cut off,
+then her men must be cut down.
+
+Germany has raised by war-loan $1,100,000,000.  She has spent this and
+$500,000,000 more besides.  The financial strain is shown in her paper
+and exchanges at discounts outside her own border.  Within her own
+realm she is piling up a gold reserve in her great bank, to sustain her
+expanded paper issues and her strained credit; but how is she securing
+the gold?
+
+Calling a mark a shilling, or 25 cents, let us speak for a moment of
+Germany's finances in marks.  After the war of 1870 she planted
+125,000,000 marks in gold from the French indemnity in her war-tower at
+Spandau.  In June, 1913, the Reichstag voted to double this to
+250,000,000 marks in gold, the addition to be known also as the Spandau
+tower reserve, but to be placed in the Reichsbank and not counted in
+the bank reserves.  There was also to be coined 125,000,000 marks in
+silver.
+
+The whole was simply a stirrup-cup to enable Germany quickly to bound
+into the war-saddle with purchase of horses, food, and the light or
+perishable munitions of war which must be had at the outset and at a
+time when war panic first seizes the currency and supplies of a
+community.
+
+The basis of German finance was 1,200,000,000 marks in specie, mostly
+gold, in the vaults of the Reichsbank at Berlin--the central bank of
+issue and bankers' deposits--with its 485 branches.
+
+Before the war this metal reserve had been brought up to 1,400,000,000
+marks.  At the outbreak of the war, of course, the Spandau tower
+reserve in specie must have gone into the bank, and every metal reserve
+that the government could lay its hands upon likewise went into the
+bank.  Germany then boasted a gold reserve approaching 2,000,000,000
+marks.  In this month of February the bank gold reserve was put well
+above 2,000,000,000.
+
+Bank-paper issues meanwhile expanded by the billion.
+
+The great contest in Germany is to maintain this bank metal reserve,
+and it is the task of Sisyphus and of herculean proportions.  Outside
+of the United States, Germany has probably little, if any, credit
+to-day.  She must pay in gold for what she buys from without, and from
+without she must get copper and oil.  Lubricating oils are troubling
+her now quite as much as diminishing supplies of gasolene.
+
+To get copper for munitions of war she can produce within her own
+borders 90,000,000 pounds.  Of late years she has been importing from
+America 300,000,000 pounds per annum, so that electrification has been
+going on for many years all over Germany, and copper wires in
+telegraph-postoffice work scintillate in the skyline of the German
+cities.  These can come down and be replaced with iron or aluminum.  Of
+course, the first wires to come down will be the power-transmission
+wires.  They can readily be replaced with aluminum, of which Germany is
+the parent producer.  A very fair telephone service can be maintained
+with iron wires.  Those who are looking for the exhaustion of Germany
+on a copper basis are reckoning without knowledge of German resources.
+
+For petrol she can substitute benzol and alcohol, with some
+inconvenience.  Germany is likewise the home and center of industrial
+alcohol, which it manufactures from surplus products.  But when it
+comes to gold, there is the rub.  Germany fixes a price of 20 cents a
+pound for copper within her own borders, but the government will pay 30
+cents a pound to anybody who will deliver it to her from the outside.
+Indeed, I have heard of one lot of copper in Sweden for which 40 cents
+a pound was bid if the parties could ship it out across the Baltic.
+
+I have a friend who was bid $5 a gallon for gasolene if he would land
+it within Germany, but such bids are not necessarily convincing.  They
+may be made to fool the enemy.  There are also stories of great
+underground storage-tanks of petroleum, owned by the government and
+concealed in the Black Forest, that have never yet been touched.  It is
+inconceivable that Germany should plunge into a great war without
+having resources of copper and petroleum.  But for all that is bought
+from without she must pay gold.  No financiers know better the value of
+gold as the underpinning in finance than do the Germans.
+
+Germany was very lavish with her gold at the start, and the French
+believed that it was an assistance in her military strategy.  At the
+battle of Charleroi 50,000 German cavalry screened an unsuspected
+infantry force of 300,000 men and the French had to retreat; but that
+Maubeuge surrendered 40,000 men, without more fighting, gives rise in
+the French mind to suspicions of German gold.  The anathemas of the
+French against their commander at Maubeuge make it much safer for him
+to remain a prisoner in Germany.  The French caught one German wearing
+a French uniform but having upon his person one million francs.  Of
+course, they shot him as a spy, but they were more incensed by the
+bribes he carried than by his uniform.
+
+Everybody in Germany is called upon to lend a hand in maintaining the
+supply of gold for the government.  The patriotism of the people was
+first appealed to.  Then laws were passed.  People are "requested" to
+give up their jewelry, to make a patriotic sacrifice of it for the
+Fatherland.  Cards are printed in the newspapers urging the people for
+the sake of the Fatherland to bring all their gold into the Reichsbank.
+
+So fine is the search for gold that wedding rings are given from the
+fingers of the women, and iron rings are substituted as badges of
+patriotism.
+
+While every other nation on earth since 1900 has been accumulating gold
+in bank reserve, England alone has stood aloof and accumulated credit
+instead of gold.  English financiers laugh at gold except as it can be
+made useful.  They prefer to hold interest-bearing promises to pay
+gold.  To-day England holds the keys to the world's gold outside of
+Germany, and I have a suspicion that she is not averse to American
+cotton going into Germany if it takes out the gold in return.
+
+Germany is young as a banking, trading, and industrial nation.  England
+insists that both men and gold must be at work.  In Germany the gold
+reserve must be maintained and, with foreign trade cut off, men must be
+idle.  In England both the gold and the men are at work.  Labor was
+never better employed in England than to-day.  The English policy in
+this wartime is to fill every idle hand with productive industry; to
+work the machinery day and night; and to keep the gold in England so
+far as is necessary and to keep it circulating in England.  The
+national loss begins when you lose either the golden days of labor, the
+gold of the sunshine that makes the harvest of the valleys or the gold
+of finance and commerce.
+
+When the Germans fought the French in 1870, 60 per cent of her people
+lived on the land.  Now, forty-four years later, she is fighting the
+whole world, but only 30 per cent of her people live by the fruit of
+the soil.
+
+That is the simple answer as to why Germany, a country besieged, cannot
+win against the world.
+
+Germany has no sea-expansive ability, no foreign credit, no
+international reserves to carry out an offensive warfare.  Her only
+possibility of success lay in a sudden and decisive march over the rich
+territory of France, the possession of Paris, and a huge indemnity tax
+levy as in 1871.  The rest might have been easy.  Hence the supreme
+military necessity for a quick drive through Belgium, the only open
+road to Paris.  The size of the crime in Belgium has shown the supreme
+financial necessity.  There was no military necessity for the outrage
+against the free Belgian people--only the economic necessity.
+
+There is nothing left for Germany but a defensive warfare, a warfare
+now conducted upon foreign soil just over her own borders--the burden
+upon the enemy, the supply base near at hand.
+
+Germany must reduce and conserve her shell-fire.  The Krupp works have
+no ability to turn out daily the number of shells that Germany was
+exploding, and the United States in its own arsenals could not in a
+year make a week's supply of shells at the rate at which they were
+being exploded from Switzerland to the English Channel.
+
+Greater than progress in the arts of peace is progress in the art of
+war.  We have read in the American papers of a most wonderful new
+French shell that in bursting paralyzes and destroys life so instantly
+that all the living things within so many yards are, in a flash, set
+rigid in position as though manufactured for Jarley's Wax Works, the
+officer standing in position with uplifted arm, yet dead, the soldier
+by the window with a cigar in his fingers, a smile on his face, stone
+dead.
+
+I was informed that the effectiveness of this shell was not due to its
+poisonous gases but to the fact that, instead of being filled with
+bullets, it was charged with a wonderful new explosive.
+
+For the development of the science of war twelve months in the line of
+battle is worth in new inventions ten years of peaceful military study.
+A three years' warfare for which the English are planning is likely to
+put Germany's thirty years of "peaceful" war preparation quite in the
+shade, so far as practical results are concerned.
+
+I hear of new and more powerful mortars and cannon, wonderful new
+rifles, now being manufactured by the million from secret plans, and
+new guns to bring down Zeppelins, that it is not useful to discuss here.
+
+In the first six months of this war, the German casualties must be well
+up toward 2,000,000.  A million of the injured may go back to the
+firing line.
+
+But in killed, seriously wounded, missing, and prisoners, Germany must
+be losing at the rate of 2,000,000 men a year, and the forces of
+destruction against her will increase rather than diminish.  That she
+can lose at this rate for three years and have anything left worth
+consideration as a military power is beyond reason.
+
+Nevertheless, when I spoke with a very prominent American, now in a
+responsible position abroad, he said: "The Germans have food and
+supplies, and they have an idea; and the only way to overcome that idea
+is by their destruction.  The South had no resources for a three-year
+or four-year war, but it had an institution, an idea, and a
+determination.  If you will recall it, at the close of the war there
+were practically no men left in the South.  This war will be over when
+the fighting men of Germany have been killed off."
+
+I have so much respect for the business, mathematical, and scientific
+mind of Germany, that I cannot believe she will prefer the destruction
+of the German people, individually or collectively, to the destruction
+of the German war-machine which set on this war.
+
+I make the following estimate of the casualties--killed, wounded,
+missing, and prisoners--of the warring powers, omitting Turkey and
+Japan, up to February 1, 1915:--
+
+  German........ 1,800,000
+  French........ 1,200,000
+  Russian....... 1,600,000
+  Austrian...... 1,300,000
+  Belgian.......   200,000
+  Servian.......   150,000
+  Montenegrin...    20,000
+  English.......   110,000
+    Total....... 6,280,000
+
+
+Not in a hundred years, or since the Napoleonic wars of 1793 to 1815,
+has there been any war approaching these casualties now reaching in six
+months to six millions.
+
+A remarkable statistical fact concerning the war, which I ran across in
+London, was a computation that the deaths in the navy were
+substantially equal to those in the army, from the beginning of the war
+up into November.  Of casualties in the army, only about 10 per cent
+are deaths.  There are few wounded to be returned home from a naval
+disaster.  When the English army had suffered about 60,000 casualties,
+making about 6000 men killed, at the same time from the naval service
+6000 boys in blue had gone down to watery graves.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XIV
+
+IS IT THE PEOPLE'S WAR?
+
+German Socialism--German Unity--A Reverse Political System--Business
+Men without Political Influence--A Voice from the People--The German
+War Lord.
+
+
+In America there is no greater conflict of opinion than over the
+question of the relations of the German people to the present war.
+There are those who declare most emphatically that when the German
+people once understand this war there will be revolution in Germany,
+uprising of the socialists, and the sure overthrow of the Hohenzollern
+dynasty.
+
+Such opinions are not well based, and their authors do not understand
+the German temperament, the principles of German government, German
+organization, or German Socialism.
+
+Socialism in Germany is neither of the destructive order of that in
+Russia, nor of the wild varieties found in America; nor has it even the
+order of the Socialism of England.  Twenty years ago the Socialism of
+Germany might be recorded as against the invasion of Belgium, and the
+bonds of Socialism existing between Belgium, France, and Germany might
+have interfered with the war programme.
+
+But Socialism in Germany has passed the stage of labor-agitation.
+Indeed, it has been transformed in the reign of the present Kaiser from
+agitation against capitalism within the empire to agitation for the
+expansion of Germany in the territory of its neighbors throughout the
+world, that German labor may, through German arms, enter into and
+possess the land without.  German Socialism is thus allied with German
+militarism, and it has also become the respectable party of opposition
+in the Reichstag.  The middle classes of Germany of late years have
+voted for Socialistic candidates whenever they disagreed with the
+government.  It is the party of protest and of opposition.  It is a
+party of the empire, not of any world socialistic movement.
+
+Germany is thoroughly knit together in support of its government and
+its Kaiser.  The German people do not seek a constitutional government
+like England, or a republican form of government like France or the
+United States.  They believe their situation and safety in the middle
+of Europe call for a more autocratic form of government, and one not
+too quickly responsive to popular sentiment.
+
+Germany was made by Bismarck and the armies of Von Moltke supporting
+the Hohenzollern dynasty.  This made Prussia the center of Germany
+industrially, financially, and as a military power, and at the heart
+and seat of power, in both industry and finance, sits the same dynasty.
+The Emperor is the center of industry, finance, and military
+power,--three degrees of empire, each distinct in itself, but each
+intertwined with the others, but so intertwined that the word of power,
+command and influence comes down from the military seat of power
+through finance and into industry.  Industry does not speak back
+through the powers of finance to the military center.  The flow of the
+German dispensation of power or of governmental organization runs
+downward from the Kaiser.  No power goes up from the people or industry
+or finance to the war lord at the center.
+
+The Germans know no other system of government.  Outside of Prussia, in
+the more than thirty states of Germany, there was the local reign.  Now
+over all is the reign of the Kaiser.  The present generation has seen a
+united Germany become great among the nations of the earth.  The
+English-speaking people cannot appreciate the feudalism and the fealty
+of the German people to their war lord.  They say, "Are not the German
+people great thinkers; do they not know that the power of government is
+from the governed?"  It is inconceivable to them that the Germans
+should have a reverse system.
+
+My last word from Germany was with an American lady who has been more
+than one hundred days nursing the wounded from the battle-line, and
+she, singular as it may appear, assisted on both sides of that
+battle-line.  She assisted to dress the wounds of French soldiers where
+the lacerations of shrapnel had broken one entire side of a human
+system, face, eye, ear, jaw, arm, leg; yet that soldier lived.  She
+dressed wounds where more than twenty bullets pierced a single human
+frame.  Yet that soldier will go back to the front.  French boys in
+their 'teens had died in her arms at the hospital,--the hospital where
+thousands of wounded pass through every month,--and she had taken back
+to the parents in Paris the dying message.  She had been in the German
+and the French trenches on the line of battle.  She had crossed the
+lines and been under arrest.  She had seen the horrible picture of
+freight-loads of German corpses on German railroads,--corpses
+unhelmeted, with uncovered faces, but in boots and uniform, tied like
+cordwood in bunches of three and standing upright on their way to the
+lime-kilns.  She had nursed the wounded German soldier in his delirium,
+crying in German, which she well understood, over the horrors which
+still pursued him as he remembered the face of the wife and saw the
+agony of the children as he stood in line and by direction of his
+superior officer shot the husband dead.  He moaned in his delirium over
+the picture.  The faces of the wife and children haunted him, but he
+cried out that his superior officer had ordered him to do it; and she
+said, "No, these people are not responsible; the dogs of war have
+driven them as sheep into the slaughter-pens.  They are beaten, but
+fight for the Fatherland.  It is their duty and they obey."
+
+And how has it all come about?  Simply thus: The Saxon was a Saxon, the
+Bavarian was a Bavarian; each suddenly found himself a German and part
+of a world-power.  Bismarck and Von Moltke had a policy for the
+Hohenzollerns; it was a united Germany, and they left it a defensive
+Germany.
+
+There was not in the brain of Bismarck or of Von Moltke, or of the
+Emperor under whom they prosecuted the wars against Austria, Denmark,
+and France, any idea of Germany as the Conqueror of the world.
+
+"Never be at enmity with the Russian Bear," was the saying at the time
+of Bismarck and before.  "Always contrive that yours shall be a
+defensive war; let the other party attack," was the declaration of
+Bismarck.
+
+The policy of Bismarck was: "If you have an enemy, make friends with
+all the other powers, so that your enemy be isolated diplomatically and
+politically."
+
+The present Kaiser has reversed every one of the great policies of
+Bismarck and of his ancestors that made a united and great Germany.
+
+There is not a language in the world to-day outside the Teutonic that
+speaks the praise of Germany.  Defensive German alliances are broken
+because the present Kaiser insisted that offensive and defensive are
+one and the same.  In offensive action the Triple Alliance breaks;
+while the Triple Entente becomes, for defense, nine nations instead of
+three.
+
+The German people are not responsible for this situation.  Their form
+of government has not yet permitted full, free, and effective
+expression of opinion; nor does the German seek full political
+expression.  He loves his fireside and his family, and prefers his home
+ease and philosophy.  He has confidence in his Kaiser and his
+government; and his whole training for a generation has been to make
+him an obedient part of a military power.
+
+It is gratifying to find that not the German people, but the German
+Kaiser, is responsible for this war; and it is also gratifying to find
+that there are doubts as to his full mental responsibility.
+
+I have had closer associations with the German people than with the
+French, and have liked them better as a people: they are so
+industrious, efficient, and ambitious in the world's work.  I know the
+German country better than the country of France or England.  I think I
+understand something of the over-self-sufficiency of the English, and I
+have no prejudice against the Germans, or even their form of
+government, which may be better adapted to their needs than a broader
+democracy.  But of the German modern war-philosophy the world outside
+can hold but one opinion.  It might have been supported as a purely
+tentative or speculative philosophy, but it could have been promoted in
+practice only by a crazy ruler.  I was not therefore surprised to find
+circulated in Paris an article by an American physician which I had
+permitted to be published in America at the outbreak of the war,
+showing the mental weaknesses and hereditary taints of Germany's war
+lord.
+
+I recall him from memory of bygone years, and as I saw him in Berlin
+when his grandfather was still on the throne--a young man of about
+twenty, returning from the races and dashing through the Tiergarten
+holding the reins of six coal-black horses.
+
+I said to myself: "That young man will cut a dash yet."  And I still
+see, in higher light than before, those six coal-black horses--the
+horses of death.
+
+Recently I read pages of his writings, speeches, and declarations, and
+there is not for the world an uplifting or new thought within them all.
+What appears to be new is the echo of an age that was supposed to be
+long past--when might was rule and valor was religion.
+
+"There is but one will, and that is mine," said the Kaiser, addressing
+his soldiers; but it has been the keynote to his diplomacy wherever it
+has appeared, either in pushing a commercial treaty on Russia in her
+hour of distress, forcing Italy into the Triple Alliance, or dictating
+the terms of the Austrian ultimatum to Servia, so that it would be
+impossible of fulfilment.
+
+What is there of world-progress in the declaration of the present
+German Emperor, celebrating the two hundredth anniversary of the
+Kingdom of Prussia,--
+
+"In this world nothing must be settled without the intervention of
+Germany and of the German Emperor."
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XV
+
+THE GERMAN POSITION
+
+An Aggressive Germany--The Logic of It--The War Party Supreme--A War for
+Business--What Confronts Germany--Her Finish.
+
+
+A mighty nation surrounded and besieged, yet still fighting on foreign
+soil, is the position of Germany to-day.  Her triumph would mean, not
+alone a European conquest, but a world-conquest.  Her defeat within a
+reasonable time does not mean her destruction or dismemberment.  It means
+only the destruction of Prussian militarism and that theory of national
+existence into which the German people have been led under the present
+emperor, that theory which teaches:--
+
+"War and courage have done more great things than Charity."
+
+"What is good?  All that increases the feeling of power; the will to
+power."
+
+"The weak and debauched must perish, and should be helped to perish."
+
+
+This is the philosophy, the teaching and the language of Nietzsche and on
+it Treitschke and Bernhardi founded their war propaganda.
+
+When Emperor William II ascended the throne and became the "All Highest
+War Lord," he found himself at the head of two great Germanys: a military
+Germany arising from the Prussian conquest of France in 1870, by which
+more than thirty states had been welded into a compact unity of military
+order, commercial tariffs, railroad transportation, and national finance;
+and an industrial Germany forging ahead in the commercialism of the earth
+at a pace exceeded by no other nation.
+
+Bismarck and Von Moltke had made a Germany for defense.  The railways did
+not flow to the ocean for the interchange of commerce.  They ran
+primarily east and west to the Russian and French frontiers for military
+reasons; but never for attack, always for defense.  It was expected that
+France would revive and again seek to try issues with Germany.  In this
+she might possibly be assisted by Russia.  Hence the German plans were
+for defense against these two countries.
+
+As Germany developed in industry, the military caste receded relatively.
+Bankers, merchants, shippers, and traders came to the front.  Railways
+bent the traffic of the country to the sea, and harbors and ports of
+commerce grew with rapid strides.
+
+"What a wonderful business man is the German Emperor!" said the world.
+"He advertises Germany all over the earth by the spiked helmet and the
+rattle of his sword, but never war seeks he."  The world must now revise
+this opinion.
+
+German unity gave rise to German efficiency and German thoroughness, and
+to a demand for a larger German unity.  The whole German-speaking race
+must be put together and bound together.  Germany must expand over the
+seas, in colonial empire, and by tariffs of her own making.  This meant
+that the Germans must have dominion on sea as well as land.  Alliances
+must first be cemented with Austria and her neighboring states.  Italy
+must be dragged into a triple alliance; and the small Balkan States must
+be tied up with Austria, that through an alliance with Turkey, Germany
+might reach not only the Mediterranean but the waters of the Pacific.
+This must happen before the great try-out for the mastery of the seas.
+
+Now, the central point in the study of Germany under the present Kaiser
+is the naval programme for over-seas conquest, which was originated
+entirely by the present Kaiser.  It was he and no other who aimed to turn
+defensive Germany into aggressive Germany.  He has been the author from
+the beginning of the entire naval programme.
+
+Such a plan must take cunning and strategy covering years.  It must
+proclaim peace to the world but rouse all the fighting blood of the
+German-speaking race.  The spirit for world-conquest must be stimulated
+in all literature and art, in education, and commerce; with the
+individual and the family.  The danger of Germany must be pointed out.
+The greatness and rightfulness of her ambitions in the world must be
+brought forward and educated into the blood of every growing German.
+
+While to the outside world steadily proclaiming peace, the Kaiser was as
+steadily inculcating war and the principles of war into every avenue of
+German thought and philosophy.
+
+The Germans are nothing if not logical and scientific.  They must
+therefore find a reason in philosophy and in the facts of history for
+their national programme.  Those who found these reasons and logically
+set them forth were hailed as the great philosophers and educators of
+Germany.  The logic was simple.  It was that all history and all progress
+had been made by war; that peace-loving races decayed, and finally
+perished, and their places were rightfully taken by the younger, braver,
+sturdier, and hardier fighting races.
+
+"Let your superiority be an acceptance of hardship."  "Die at the right
+time."  "Be hard."  "What is happiness?  The feeling that power
+increases, that resistance is being overcome."  Nietzsche thus talked the
+principles of this philosophy; a something entirely apart from the
+principles of the Christian religion, but an absolutely philosophical,
+modern paganism; a worship of power, the assertions of one's individual
+and national self--"The Will to Power."
+
+Treitschke taught it to the youth of Germany as applied to war,--not the
+necessity for defense but the justice and the righteousness of aggressive
+warfare.  The Emperor and his court hailed these teachings with great
+acclaim.  Chamberlain, an Englishman, printed a book to show that all
+good things were German; that the great Italian art-workers were German;
+that Christ himself was of German origin.
+
+The teachings of Christ were repudiated by Germany, but His greatness in
+world leadership must be claimed for Germany.  Had not all the poets
+given Him the German countenance and complexion, even light hair and blue
+eyes?  The German Emperor bought presentation copies of this book by the
+thousand.
+
+If you think the picture is over-drawn, get a copy of Chamberlain's
+"Foundations of the Nineteenth-Century Civilization."
+
+There are those who acclaim that all these teachings were never meant for
+war; that the Germans, outside of Prussia, being a phlegmatic,
+home-loving, non-military people, needed to have their patriotism
+stimulated with "war talk" and national ambitions.
+
+Now there are those who see that it was all part of a cunning propaganda
+for a world-conquest; that Germany was cultivated industrially and
+financially to give base for military operations.
+
+But most carefully have the business men of Germany been excluded from
+the war councils.  I asked one of the best-informed men in the diplomatic
+cycles of Europe, whose business all his life has been to travel from
+country to country studying the languages, thought, and customs of all
+people, west of Asia and north of Africa: "Are the German bankers and
+business men to have no say in Berlin as to peace and war or the military
+policy of the empire?"  His response was emphatic: "Not one word; they
+would no more be allowed expression of opinion in the inner councils of
+military Germany than would a rank foreigner from the farthest part of
+the earth.  Still in Germany is the business of trade apart from the
+business of government."
+
+The world may now see that the business of Germany was war from the
+beginning under Kaiser Wilhelm II, and that Germany was to be made great
+on land and sea by the sword of war hacking the way for German commerce,
+German tariffs, and German commercialism.  The old feudal idea of trade
+expanded and supported by a war lord has been the idea of Germany since
+the pilot, Bismarck, was dropped by the young Emperor from the ship of
+state.  War for aggression, war for business, war for German expansion,
+has been the scheme.  That these plans were interrupted and the war
+precipitated sooner than expected was most fortunate for American
+civilization and all civilization, west of Germany.
+
+It was the Kaiser who changed the terms of Austria's ultimatum to Servia,
+making them impossible of fulfillment, and then cunningly slipped away on
+a water-trip with the fastest German cruiser behind him, that he might
+come rushing back and cry, "Peace, peace!" while he fenced off every
+peace proposal from effectively reaching Austria.  Servia was willing to
+agree to every demand of Austria except that which involved a change in
+her constitutional government, with which she could not comply in the
+allotted time; but even this she was willing to discuss.  The Kaiser gave
+Russia twelve hours to demobilize, and then declared war on her five days
+before Russia even withdrew her minister from Vienna.
+
+While the Germans have gone to war to possess the land and dominate the
+business of their neighbors, they have not gone to war as savage tribes,
+seeking blood and human sacrifice as an end in itself.
+
+I have not dealt with German atrocities in Belgium or France.  War is
+atrocious, and you cannot move millions of men to the slaughter of their
+fellow men without revealing a certain percentage of crimes kindred to
+murder.
+
+In due time, all the atrocities of this war may be shown up in
+photographs which have been taken.  The Carnegie Peace Foundation is
+circulating photographs showing the atrocities in the Bulgarian wars.  It
+might be much more timely for them to circulate photographs showing the
+horrors and atrocities of human sacrifice in this most audacious war.
+
+Previous chapters have shown how German diplomacy slipped, how the German
+secret service had gathered the facts of the military, financial, and
+political weaknesses of Russia, Great Britain, and France, yet with no
+ability to value properly the spirit of the peoples behind this military
+unpreparedness.  Germany has been described as "System without Soul."  It
+remains only to show the relative weaknesses of Germany, and why she
+cannot win this war.
+
+The Allies can reach round the world for men, war-supplies, and financial
+assistance.  Germany can get no more men, no more gold, no more outside
+war-supplies.  She must manufacture and be self-sustaining.
+
+In the first six months of the war Germany has raised a loan of
+4,400,000,000 marks, or about 1,100,000,000 dollars, promptly and
+patriotically taken by her people.
+
+But international bankers inform me that every dollar of this and fifty
+percent more was gone before January 1, 1915.  This is also indicated by
+the expansion of her paper money and her efforts to maintain the gold
+basis under that paper.
+
+As this is regarded as a life-and-death struggle for Germany, the jewelry
+in the Empire must go into the melting-pot.
+
+I can well credit the reports of copper household utensils and building
+materials going into the melting-pot for the copper of war.
+
+And of rubber, for which there is no substitute, I hear that above three
+dollars a pound is being bid in Germany, or about four times the price in
+the United States.
+
+Still, the scarcity of gold, copper, gasolene, or rubber, or all
+combined, might not force Germany to sue for peace.
+
+What I give a final verdict on is the tremendous human sacrifice that is
+exhausting both Austria and Germany.  I do say from good sources that in
+the first twenty weeks of the war the German casualties--wounded,
+prisoners, missing, and killed--were above 1,700,000, while Austrian
+casualties are now approaching a million and a half.
+
+In the first six months of the year Germany and Austria will have
+suffered not less than three million casualties.  Of course, more than
+half these people are wounded, who may go back to the firing line.  But
+the three hundred thousand and more dead will never go back; and many
+vitally wounded and many cripples will be hereafter useless in peace or
+war; and the prisoners that are exchanged with France through Geneva are
+under pledge and mutual government agreement not to take up arms again.
+
+I have also more confidence in the Russian position, numbers, supplies,
+and strategy than is generally possessed in America.
+
+We hear in the press reports of generals at the head of the armies in
+Russia and France.  We do not hear of the wonderful younger generals that
+war is developing, and who are coming forward more rapidly there than
+from any similar developments under the bureaucracy of Germany.
+
+The two greatest military strategists the war has developed are not in
+Germany or England.  They are in Russia and France, and their names have
+not yet crossed the Atlantic in the press reports.
+
+However long Germany may fight on, offensively or defensively, her
+retreat must begin this year.  Then the world will be increasingly
+interested in the terms of peace.
+
+Balfour, the English statesman, says privately, "I know the people look
+for the dismemberment of Germany, and some look for her destruction, but
+this is not the intelligent opinion or intelligent desire.  Germany is an
+indispensable part of the world's industrial, commercial, financial, and
+political organization.  To destroy Germany would be a world loss."  The
+opinion of eminent political and financial people in England is that
+Germany can never repair the total damage she may inflict.  So far as
+England is concerned, next after the destruction of Germany's war-power,
+giving insurance of a European peace, comes first the indemnification of
+every financial loss that Belgium suffers.  This is now estimated at from
+$1,500,000,000 to $2,500,000,000.
+
+What there will be left over in the way of Germany's ability to pay,
+aside from the Kiel Canal, Alsace and Lorraine, and German Poland, is
+problematical.
+
+To have Germany able to pay even a part of the damage she is inflicting
+upon the world, she must be put back upon her industrial feet.
+Therefore, I have declared, when asked about this matter, that in the end
+England would be found the best friend of Germany.  But conquered and
+destroyed must be the Prussian war-machine of aggression, or crumbles the
+art and industry of republican France and the democracy of English
+speech, thought, and government.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XVI
+
+THE LESSONS FOR AMERICA
+
+Wealth is National Defense--Gold Mobilization--Food Supplies
+International--No Financial Independence--Tariffs as War Causes--Are We
+in a Fool's Paradise?
+
+
+The lessons for the United States and for all America from this war are
+so many that it is difficult to arrange them in order.
+
+The first lesson is that nations can be no longer isolated units.  A
+hundred years ago the United States desired to be free from
+Europe,--from its political system, its wage system, and its social
+system.  To-day the United States cannot desire to be freed from any
+country in the world.  Its Panama Canal, its demand for a mercantile
+marine, for countries to take its cotton and cotton goods, and its
+inquiry as to where it can get potash salts and chemical dyes, all show
+the interrelation of modern business which has broken all national
+boundaries.
+
+England is talking to-day of a closer federation in her empire to
+follow this war.  She is asking why she alone should be the protector
+of the seas, and of the peace of Europe, not only for herself and her
+colonies, but for the whole world.  She is already talking of a
+federation for the empire by which Australia, Canada, etc., will have
+direct representation in Parliament, and assist directly in bearing the
+burden of the maintenance of peace.  I doubt if a British federation
+will strengthen the British Empire.  Mutual interest is the great
+federator.  The unwritten Constitution of England has more binding
+force than the written Constitution of the United States.  The Triple
+Entente is stronger and more binding than the Triple Alliance.
+
+The whole world is interested in the maintenance of peace, and it
+should not be the business of any one nation or empire to maintain the
+peace of the world.
+
+Secondly, if the burden is put upon England to maintain the peace of
+the seas and the peace of Europe, she must have a growing empire to
+support that burden.
+
+Already the English people see the spread of her influence which is to
+follow this war and make Cecil Rhodes's dream of a Cape to Cairo
+railroad a reality for Africa.  Egypt, Palestine, and Asia Minor are
+hereafter to be restored in fertility and give a new civilization to
+the shores of the eastern Mediterranean.
+
+Is it to be assumed that with the new development for Africa and Asia,
+Europe is going to abandon her interest on the continents of America?
+
+Will not the very force of these developments make a foundation for
+European developments in North and South America?
+
+Have we not seen that the British Empire has still some interest in the
+Panama canal?  Is it to be supposed that when peace succeeds in Europe,
+and the European nations lie down together for another period of mutual
+development, France will make no inquiry concerning her $800,000,000 of
+property in Mexico?  Or that England will adopt Mr. Bryan's idea that
+any Englishman or American who goes into Mexico cannot look for any
+protection from his home government?
+
+I believe that Lord Cowdray is to-day the foremost business man in
+England.  He represents oil lands in Mexico worth intrinsically more
+than $100,000,000.  Is it the policy of the British government to say,
+"Cowdray, forget it, and come over and develop Mesopotamia; living is
+unsettled in Mexico, and Uncle Sam has told 'em to fight it out"?
+
+A third lesson the United States will receive from this war is the
+value of large units in business and the value of national wealth as
+national defense.
+
+Instead of trying to pull down wealth and individual accretions of
+wealth, the country will recognize that all savings and every increment
+of fortune, small or large, are for the ultimate benefit and for the
+prosperity and defense of the whole country.
+
+In this war Russia is poor in railroads, and the advantage that Germany
+has held over her in Poland is more by reason of the German railways
+than the German armies.  Railways are products of wealth and individual
+capital, and the sooner the United States learns this lesson, the
+better.
+
+A fourth lesson for the United States from this war is the value of
+gold in bank reserves, and the value of ability to mobilize quickly
+such reserves.  No nation in the world to-day is more closely tied to
+every other nation than by the invisible strings of gold.  Every nation
+in the world has an interest in the gold supply and the gold reserve in
+bank throughout the world.
+
+There are those in England who still believe that this war will be the
+supreme test of the gold monometallic base for money and banking.
+There is no thought as yet that Germany, if driven off the gold base,
+will seek a silver base.  It has always been declared by the
+bimetallists that the successor of gold monometallism will be paper,
+and Germany is expected to go upon a paper rather than a silver basis.
+
+In exchange operations German paper is about 8 per cent discount, but
+exporting gold or buying or selling gold at a premium is by law
+forbidden.  All are penal offenses.
+
+England can stand upon a gold basis because she commands the gold
+promises to pay, but in war time she can threaten the stability of the
+monetary systems of many countries.  The United States saved its gold
+base by closing the Stock Exchange, but the South American countries
+were quickly in distress for gold.
+
+To put India on a gold basis a few years ago, a tax was levied on
+Indian silver imports with the result that India has absorbed
+$400,000,000 in gold from England in the last five or six years, and
+where payments to India were formerly one-quarter gold and
+three-quarters silver, they are now one-quarter silver and
+three-quarters gold.
+
+All these matters are being sharply watched by the English economists.
+
+A fifth lesson we may draw from the war is the necessity for a larger
+official representation abroad.  It was fortunate that before the
+outbreak of the war the American embassy in London had been moved to
+larger quarters by the gardens west of Buckingham Palace.
+
+The strain that was thrown upon that embassy for information,
+passports, transportation, etc., was something terrific.  United States
+statutes allow this embassy only three secretaries, but it had to use
+eight, and the work continued until 3 A.M., and sometimes 5 A.M.  There
+was only one relief in the situation and that was in a study of the
+queer characters one finds abroad, insisting that they are
+representative Americans.  Some of the people demanding free
+transportation back to America declared their residence to be in
+Hoboken, but could not tell if Hoboken were nearer New York City than
+to San Francisco.  It was a great temptation for some people to get out
+of the war zone and into America at the expense of Uncle Sam.  The
+amount of business transacted by this embassy may be illustrated by the
+fact that the cable tolls alone for several months cost more than the
+former total expenses of the embassy.
+
+Still another lesson from the war that America must learn is that food
+supplies are now not national, but international.  We have seen the
+price of sugar in the United States jumping up and down in a commercial
+battle between England and Germany almost before their clash at arms.
+
+Before the war, 80 per cent of the sugar consumed in England was
+produced in Germany.  England, under her free trade policy, had
+permitted German beet sugar interests, fattened upon a government
+bounty, to destroy the refinery interests in the south of England.  The
+Island gained by the trade because her refineries were turned into
+sugar canneries.  Jams and marmalades therefrom expanded her foreign
+trade.  Germany, however, at the outbreak of this war, proposed to cut
+off, or tax heavily, England's sugar supply.  Into the markets of the
+world went the British Treasury and in a few days the government was in
+command of an eighteen months' supply of sugar for the whole of Great
+Britain.  Down went the price of sugar in Germany, and now the
+government is taking measures to restore prosperity to her sugar
+interests by a reduction in beet-sugar plantings.  The English
+government is selling sugar in England at a loss, as a war measure, and
+will not permit sugar purchases in any country where Germany sells her
+sugar.
+
+Nothing but the strain of war could have induced the Bank of England to
+count a hundred million dollars in gold sent from New York into Canada
+as a part of the Bank's metal reserve.
+
+There is now no reason why this relation should not continue.  Why
+should fifty or a hundred million in gold be sent across the ocean in
+the spring, to be returned in the fall?  The world is going to be still
+more a unit in finance hereafter.  It has taken a generation to educate
+the world to the right of the individual in the common fund of money,
+so far as money is needed to effect transfer of credits.  This is the
+keynote in our Federal Reserve act: that business has just as much
+right to regulation promoting safe and smooth credits as it has to
+national regulation promoting safe and sound transportation.
+
+Out of this war must arise better international relations, and they
+comprise not alone the relations of peace, but closer relations to
+international transportation, as respects both ships, international
+money, and international credit.
+
+While many people are looking for financial independence between
+nations, the United States taking back from Europe in the next three
+years the larger part of the $6,000,000,000 of American securities
+owned abroad, it is quite possible that the opposite will take place: a
+greater interrelation, not only in credits but in investments.
+
+If nations are to be more closely knit together hereafter, it will be
+not alone in alliances of peace, but in financial alliances in security
+ownership.
+
+It is far better for both Europe and America that, instead of Europe
+selling its American securities, America should buy European
+securities--first, acceptances, making a basis for credits and
+international purchases in connection with the war; and later, American
+investment in the funds of foreign nations.  It may be that before this
+war is over many European nations will have to appeal to America with
+their loans.
+
+If France could see her way clear to put out a long-term loan at 5 per
+cent instead of short-term loans at this rate, there should be a good
+investment field for it in America.
+
+Russia is an unconquerable country, and her securities at a good rate
+should be attractive for some American capital.
+
+There is no reason why the 3 per cent bonds of Germany should not soon
+be investigated for investment purposes in America.  The German debt is
+very small and, however long the war may continue, German bonds will
+ultimately be paid.  They are quoted now at about 70, and, with the
+discount on exchange, they may be purchased from America at nearly 60,
+or to get 5 per cent on the investment, to say nothing of possible
+appreciation toward par in the future.
+
+One may well believe the Germans to be misled in this war, and yet
+properly await opportunity to purchase at the right time their
+outstanding national bonds when these can be purchased so much more
+advantageously toward the end of the war than in the beginning of the
+era of peace, which must in time follow.  Is it not just as neutral to
+purchase German bonds from the Germans as to purchase ships or our own
+railroad shares from Germany?
+
+A great and primary lesson for the United States is in a thorough
+understanding that this war was caused by tariffs.  The United States
+is the home of protective tariffs.  The sentiment under a protective
+tariff is national selfishness.  England has bought in other markets
+wherever she could buy cheapest, and has kept her ports open to the
+cheapest markets.  This may be her selfishness.
+
+It may, however, remain for the United States, while maintaining a
+protective tariff, to look to larger international relations and admit
+reciprocal trade-relations.  There is a wide field for study here in
+connection with this war, for the same spirit--the wresting of
+commercial advantages by tariffs without regard to the fellow
+nation--is in many countries.
+
+We aim in this country to boycott foreign manufactures with the
+declaration that we should give all the advantages to labor in this
+country, and keep our money at home.  But what do we think when we find
+that Germany has for years run a boycott against every American
+enterprise?
+
+America's great International Harvester Company, which has made and
+promoted the great agricultural inventions of the world; the Singer
+Sewing-Machine Company, that spreads its manufactures over the earth,
+and brings back the returns to the United States; all American
+motor-car companies, all American tobacco interests, and, in fact, all
+foreign companies, are boycotted, or barred, or worked against,
+throughout Germany.  Placards in shop windows say, "Don't buy foreign
+goods.  Keep the money in Germany!"
+
+The horrors of backing such a policy by a war machine, that would
+impose German goods upon other countries and keep the products of those
+countries out of Germany, is something to contemplate; but the deepest
+lesson from it is in America, which has the tariffs and not even a
+defensive war machine.
+
+With the Monroe Doctrine so interpreted that no European government can
+enforce security for its citizens or for the property of its citizens
+in Mexico, and with a protective tariff under which we can invite
+countries to send us goods for a series of years and then suddenly bar
+them out, the United States may be dwelling in a fool's paradise from
+the political, military, and economic points of view.
+
+A united Europe cannot be expected to lay down its arms, while arms are
+international arbiters, until there is a better understanding of the
+Monroe Doctrine and European relations to Mexico.
+
+There is only one safety for America, and that is the rule of right and
+of reason.  Tariffs should be neighborly; life and property made secure
+wherever the United States extends its sphere of influence; and
+arbitration should take the place of all wars.
+
+Indeed, the United States, from every standpoint, is the one nation in
+the world to be the promoter of peace, and to assist in its
+enforcement.  There is no other policy for us from the standpoint of
+both national righteousness and national safety.
+
+But this subject is so large that I must present it in the next and
+concluding chapter.
+
+
+
+
+CHAPTER XVII
+
+WHAT PEACE SHOULD MEAN
+
+Not When but How--The Argument for War--Right over Might--National Hate
+as a Political Asset--The Human Pathway--Peace by International
+Police--The Practical Way--Is a New Age Approaching?
+
+
+The endeavor in these pages has been to show from close personal
+research in Europe the cause and cost of this war--cost in finance and
+human lives,--and also the lessons that America, and particularly the
+United States, should derive from this greatest war.
+
+It is not so material when this war terminates, as how it terminates.
+Many people, and especially those sympathetic with Germany, are looking
+for a drawn battle.  This means a world-disaster, and no world-progress.
+
+The British Empire is determined that this war shall mean for
+generations a lasting peace by the destruction of the German war
+machine.  The Germans likewise declare that what they are fighting for
+is the peace of Europe.  The Germans, high and low, declare that this
+peace has been disrupted by jealousy of German culture, German
+efficiency, and German success.  It is difficult to understand the
+German logic, for wars do not lessen jealousy, envy, or race, or
+national hate.  They only increase the jealousy and put peace further
+away than before, unless there is real conquest, division, and
+absorption.
+
+Bismarck declared in 1867 that he was opposed to any war upon France,
+and that if the military party convinced him of ability to crush France
+and occupy Paris, he would be unalterably opposed to the attack.  For,
+said he, one war with France is only the first of at least six, and
+were we victorious in all six, it would only mean ruin for Germany, and
+for her neighbor and best customer.
+
+"Do you think a poor, bankrupt, starving, ragged neighbor as desirable
+as a healthy, solvent, fat, well-clothed one?" demanded Bismarck.
+
+France attacked Germany in 1870 and found her well-prepared armies
+impregnable.  Many believe that the Allies will find the German
+trench-defences now impregnable.  I do not think the Allies will pay
+the price in human sacrifice to invade Germany from the west.  The
+break-up of Germany is more likely to come from her exhaustion and the
+weakness of Austria, against which the pressure will be steadily
+increased.  But what follows the war is most important.  If the
+victorious or defeated nations are to go on arming, they will go on
+warring to the extent that there be left in the world no small nations
+and no unfortified area.
+
+If Germany is to grow other navies, and England is still to build two
+for one, North and South America must in time have navies, the support
+of which will burden the western hemisphere and the progress of
+humanity.  It ought to be clear that this audacious war can mean
+nothing unless it means tremendous progress toward universal peace;
+unless it means that nations are to be guided by the same principles,
+practices, and morality that should guide individuals.
+
+I know all the arguments for the needfulness of war, and there is not
+one of them that will hold water.  Wars exist for the same reason that
+they formerly existed with individuals, or between cities, or
+states,--because there was no organization regulating the relations
+between individuals, cities, and states.  Wars exist between nations
+to-day because there is no organization regulating international
+relations.
+
+Out of this war and its alliances must ultimately come such a
+regulating of international relations, or the world goes back toward
+bankruptcy and barbarism.
+
+It is declared that the people of Europe have wanted this war; that the
+Germans wanted to expand by war; that the French have wanted to fight
+for Alsace-Lorraine; that the Russians must war for a water outlet;
+that the English have favored war for a readjustment of the European
+balances in power.  There are many individuals who want their
+neighbors' goods, or redivision; there are many cities jealous of their
+commercial rivals; there are many states jealous of the progress of
+others; but all these no longer think of war as a method of
+readjustment, or even of redress of grievances.
+
+Patriotism and nationality should no more be a basis of war than civic
+pride or family pride.
+
+Perhaps the first error to be blotted out before a universal peace is
+that which arises from the German teaching that the state is a distinct
+entity or individuality apart from ourselves; that a state has no moral
+status, no moral principles, and can do no wrong; that while we may not
+steal individually, we will justify ourselves in stealing, murdering,
+and plundering collectively, in the name of the state.
+
+When once this error is clearly seen and rooted out, we shall still
+find in every community men who believe that what a man is able to get
+and hold is his by right of possession and power; and we shall still
+have police regulations, departments of justice, and courts of law, to
+defend the weak against injustice from the strong.
+
+We have constitutions in civilized communities to prevent robbery and
+the injustice of majorities upon minorities.  We have sheriffs, police,
+and military power to enforce the edict of right, when once the highest
+tribunal has made the nearest possible human approach to justice.
+
+A distinguished lawyer once said to me that, to him, the most wonderful
+thing in the world was an edict of the Supreme Court of the United
+States; "A few words scrawled upon a scrap of paper and approved by
+some aged individuals of no great physical vigor; and, behold, it is
+instantly the law of a hundred million people!"
+
+And, for the benefit of future human progress, the argument supporting
+that edict is later printed with it; and that in future any errors
+therein may be corrected, the wisdom of the minority or dissenting
+judges is as carefully preserved and bound up with the major opinion
+and edict, that all public sources for correction of error may be
+preserved in the clear amber of legal justice in truth as betwixt man
+and man.
+
+  "For what avail the plow or sail,
+  Or land or life, if freedom fail?"
+
+
+And freedom fails when justice falls and right of might succeeds.
+
+The breaking up of the world's physical body, or of the material
+dwellings and possessions of humanity, may be necessary for "a new
+birth of freedom"; for the incoming of the larger light; for a broader,
+more universal brotherhood.
+
+Individual robbery or wrong may beget individual hate, but law in
+social organization prevents its full expression.  The extent to which
+individual hate may be expanded indefinitely where guns take the place
+of law, may be illustrated by some communities in sparsely settled
+mountainous countries in our Southern states.  Here family feuds and
+individual murder went on through generations, until nobody could tell
+how or why they ever began.
+
+A journalist friend just arrived from Berlin in this month of February
+tells me he detects a general policy in Germany to direct the national
+spirit solely against England, possibly with a view to bringing the
+German people into line for proposals of peace with everybody else.
+The sentiment of Germany is being swung to-day, just as it has been
+from the beginning under the present Kaiser, against England as the
+real and only enemy to a German world-conquest.
+
+Punch says the Germans spell "culture" with a K because England has
+command of all the "C's."  But the English-speaking race has also
+command of the biggest letter in the alphabet, and can say damn with a
+force surpassing expression in any other language.  The most popular
+song to-day in Germany is the "Hymn of Hate," by Ernest Lissauer, whom,
+it is reported, the Kaiser has decorated for this--the only real German
+literature from the war.  It is a hymn and chant, and has rhythm, hiss,
+and fight in it.  It runs to the sentiment,--
+
+  "French and Russian, they matter not,
+  A blow for a blow, a shot for a shot,"
+
+but ends,--
+
+  "We love as one, we hate as one;
+  We have one foe, and one alone--
+        ENGLAND!"
+
+
+And when that last line and that last word burst from thousands of
+German throats, as in the crowded cafes of Berlin, it is the fullest
+German damn that can find expression in German consonants.  I believe
+the Prussians of Berlin would be as pleased to megaphone that line from
+Calais to Dover as they would be to throw their first shell across the
+English Channel.  But if enforced international law did not permit them
+to strive for that shot as the expression of their passion, they would
+soon forget their hot hate and put their shoulder again beneath the
+progress of the world.
+
+Man has come up from the dug-out or the cave where in primordial
+condition he won his food by his own hands from the uncut forests and
+the unfarmed waters.  As family policeman he had no incentive to
+accumulations of food, clothing, or luxuries.  These involved added
+police responsibilities and enlarged the temptations of his neighbors,
+both men and animals.
+
+Later, his family becomes a tribe.  In combination the duties of
+protection for the common good take on a larger view.  The village, the
+walled city and the armed state naturally follow.  Each stage of
+communal growth reduces the number of men set apart for defence or
+police duty.  There is a corresponding increase in the common store of
+human possessions and human happinesses.
+
+From states grow nations, then empires, until but a small fraction of
+the people is engaged in any way in aggressive or defensive warfare, or
+even police work or the determination or enforcement of laws of justice
+as between individuals, cities, states, or communities of any sort.
+
+The individual club at the mouth of the cave protecting the family has
+become for England a surrounding line of steel ships; for the United
+States, of 100,000,000 people, a mere outline of a military defensive
+organization, to be filled in when needed.  But for a few communities
+in the world that individual club has become a national armory, with
+human energies perfecting the most destructive machinery of warfare,
+that aggression may be carried on against neighbors, and territory
+expanded for purposes of national government and the increment of
+national wealth.
+
+The twentieth century has been distinguished by a call to the
+humanities; a summons to a larger brotherhood.  This has been the
+meaning of the clashes of the classes within all growing
+nations--Germany, Russia, the United States.  All that outcry of
+humanity against mere commercialism, against the mere financial
+exploitation of man and his labor, in this age takes on a larger
+meaning.
+
+In great wars material things go back; but the man goes to the front;
+and the victorious survivors make a newer and broader human creation--a
+new world with a new spirit.
+
+The world has been seeking a solution of many social problems.  They
+instantly disappear as dissolved in the hot cauldron of war.  In the
+settlement of peace following, they are found precipitated in the fired
+solution, refined, clarified,--"settled."
+
+To-day all social problems are merged in the greater problem of
+national existence.  Alliances and a larger nationality become
+necessities.  Man comes forth in a larger citizenship--a citizen of the
+whole world.  There is, there can be, no other solution, no other
+universal peace.  From this war must follow a world federation and
+international citizenship.
+
+The first recognition of the brotherhood of nations may arise under the
+Monroe Doctrine.  While this doctrine primarily is one for our national
+defense, it should properly embrace the defense of both North and South
+America, any aggression from the other side of the ocean to be unitedly
+resented on this side.
+
+The increasing responsibility of nations for their fellow nations may
+be illustrated by the case of Cuba.  The United States heard the cry of
+the Cubans under Spanish rule, turned out the Spanish rulers, and gave
+Cuba over to the Cubans.  In the same spirit the United States, finding
+itself in possession of the Philippines, is now attempting to develop
+them not for the United States but for the Filipinos.
+
+Lastly, we have the example of President Wilson, who has decreed that
+government by assassination in the countries to the south of us must
+cease, and that the United States will not recognize any government
+thus set up in Mexico.
+
+It is, however, not yet incumbent upon any nation, as upon individuals,
+to say to its neighbor, "You shall not arm; you shall not build a war
+machine of aggression; your offense against one is an offense against
+all; your military invasion against one for purposes of expansion or
+self-aggrandizement will be resented by all."
+
+Until we have practical application of a world-wide police in
+maintenance of the peace of nations, not alone by international
+agreement, which can be broken, but by agreement and international
+police-enforcement, so that it cannot be broken, there can be no
+universal peace.
+
+We are now approaching that time.
+
+There is no more reason why aggregations of people should have the
+right of murder, destruction, piracy, and pillage, than that
+individuals should have such right.
+
+This is just a simple, practical question in human advancement.  The
+world should now be big enough to grasp and effectively deal with it.
+The true meaning of this war is, therefore, human progress: humanity
+taking on larger responsibilities--the whole world answering the
+question, "Am I my brother's keeper?" with a thunderous, "Aye! we are
+one and all our brother's keeper, and we may well keep the peace of the
+world!"
+
+There is no question, national or international, no question of the
+individual or collection of individuals, which cannot be settled by the
+laws which belong in the human heart.  Such laws may be called
+spiritual or natural, divine or human; they are one and the same.
+
+Moses wrote no new law on the tables of stone on Mount Sinai.  The laws
+were before the tables of stone, and before the creation of the
+mountain itself.  It was only for the people to hear and to do.
+
+It is the same to-day.  The laws of brotherhood--brotherhood of
+individuals, brotherhood of nations, or aggregations of
+individuals--are unchanged and unchangeable.  It is only for the world
+to hear and to do.
+
+The doctrine that war is a biological necessity must go by the board.
+The teaching that war is needed to harden men and nations must be
+placed in the realm of pagan fiction.
+
+If war is a necessity for man, it is a necessity for woman.  If it is
+good for men, it is good for children.  If it is good for nations, it
+is good for states.  If it is good for states, it is certainly good for
+cities.  If it is good for peoples, it is good for individuals.
+
+War is Hell, and from Hell.  Hell may not be abolished, but it may be
+regulated.
+
+Wars may not be abolished from the human heart, but they may be
+restrained from breaking forth to the destruction of the innocent and
+the guiltless.
+
+There is only one practical way to do this, and that is to have nations
+under restraint, just as nations have states and cities under
+restraint.  Then international courts of justice may perform the same
+work national courts now perform in respect to differences between
+states.
+
+Man has come up from the individual, or dual, unit through family and
+tribal relation, the walled city, the policed state, into the armed
+nation.  He is now steadily stepping forth into the world as ruler of
+himself, the creator of his own government, the heir and sovereign of
+the world.  He can step into the kingdom of manhood suffrage or
+government only so far as the rights of his fellow men are recognized.
+Evil holds its own destruction, and nations that live by the sword
+perish by the sword.
+
+For the United States to rush into the maelstrom of war, with
+organization of armies and the building of armaments, is to invite its
+own destruction.
+
+For just one hundred years the North American continent has held the
+practical example of the impotency of the war-spirit where there is no
+war machinery.
+
+By the Bush memorandum of agreement one hundred years ago it was
+provided that there should be no guns, forts, or naval ships on the
+greatest national boundary line of the world--4000 miles across the
+American continent between the United States and Canada.  Nowhere else
+in the world have armed men attempted invasion, and yet provoked no
+war, no reprisal.  What might have been the relations between the
+United States and Canada when the "Fenians" armed in New England and
+attempted a raid across the border, if there had been armies and
+fortifications on that border?
+
+How securely now dwells in Canada $100,000,000 of the Bank of England
+reserve gold!  When German representatives in the United States talk of
+Germany's right to invade Canada and get that gold.  Uncle Sam only
+smiles and frowns.  And the smile and the frown are potential.  That
+boundary has been consecrated to peace; and what would be thought of
+the proposal, did Germany command the seas, that Uncle Sam accept some
+money or promises to pay and permit the German armies to go through,
+according to the proposal to Belgium?
+
+In an age which has abolished human slavery, broken the walls of China,
+which is bringing the yellow races into the labor and white light of
+civilization, which has made Germany a nation, and spanned a continent
+with the human voice so that Boston talks with San Francisco, is it too
+much to expect that it can bring the boon of an international
+civilization, abolishing national wars?
+
+Indeed, it is right at our doors if the United States would only
+welcome it and join it, instead of preparing to invite the old-world
+barbarism of national warfare by planning military defenses and naval
+fleets.
+
+Did anybody ever hear before of ten nations, and nearly a billion
+people, at war, and all declaring that they are warring for purposes of
+peace; and may there not yet be that universal peace by reason of this
+war, and the war's _alliances_?
+
+Suppose that, either before or after the nations of Europe lay down
+their arms, universal disarmament is assented to, and the peace of the
+world is entrusted to an international tribunal, which takes such part
+of the armies and navies as it may need to enforce its decrees, the
+balance so far as not needed for local police duty to be put back into
+industry or laid on the shelf, and all border fortifications ordered
+dismantled or turned into public recreation grounds--is it too much to
+expect in this Age?
+
+What would be simpler than, in the end, to find fortified Heligoland,
+not back in the hands of England, but the naval base of a Hague
+Tribunal enforcing international peace?
+
+
+
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