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diff --git a/.gitattributes b/.gitattributes new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6833f05 --- /dev/null +++ b/.gitattributes @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +* text=auto +*.txt text +*.md text diff --git a/76988-0.txt b/76988-0.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6cb9ca8 --- /dev/null +++ b/76988-0.txt @@ -0,0 +1,2445 @@ + +*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK 76988 *** + + + Transcriber’s Note + +In this transcription, italic text is denoted by _underscores_ while +bold text is denoted by =equal signs=. Small capitals in the original +text have been transcribed as ALL CAPITALS. + + ———— + +See the end of this document for details of corrections and other +changes. + + ————————————————————— + + + + + AEOLUS + + + + + TO-DAY AND TO-MORROW + + _For the Contents of this Series see the end of + the Book_ + + + + + AEOLUS + + OR + + THE FUTURE OF THE + FLYING MACHINE + + + BY + + OLIVER STEWART + + _Author of ‘The Strategy and Tactics of + Air Fighting,’ etc._ + + + LONDON + KEGAN PAUL, TRENCH, TRUBNER & Co., LTD. + NEW YORK: E. P. DUTTON & CO. + + + + + ———————————————————————————————————————————————————————————— + Made and Printed in Great Britain by + M. F. Robinson & Co., Ltd., at The Library Press, Lowestoft. + + + + + AEOLUS + + THE FUTURE OF THE + FLYING-MACHINE + + INTRODUCTION + + +The aeroplane is an aerial sailing-ship, its wings are the sails, its +source of power the wind. It can claim to be a direct descendant of the +family of sailing ships whose father was AEOLUS, god of the winds and +the inventor of sails. + +Aeroplane, helicopter, ornithopter, rotorplane, and autogiro are +sailing-ships because they all derive lift from sails or aerofoils. +An aerofoil is a structure so shaped as to obtain a reaction from the +wind—a sail is nothing more and nothing less. Whether the wind is +natural or is artificially raised by an engine does not affect the +function of aerofoil or sail. + +The heavier-than-air flying-machine, either engineless glider or +power-driven craft, is the true aerial sailing-ship. The prolate +gasbag which is called an airship resembles only one kind of ship, +a sinking ship, because it is totally immersed in the fluid which +supports it. If a sea parallel to the airship is required, that +parallel may justly be said to be the submarine, which is suspended in +the water as the airship is suspended in the air. + +Before I deal with the future of the aerial sailing-ship I must define +three aeronautical terms. No excuse is needed for introducing these +apparently elementary definitions since aeronautical terms are almost +as well misunderstood by aviators as by laymen. The three terms are: + + Wing + Airscrew + Propeller + +The definitions I advance are supported by the Royal Aeronautical +Society’s _Glossary of Aeronautical Terms_ and by the British +Engineering Standards Association’s _Glossary of Aeronautical Terms_ +although they are often departed from in official forms and in speech. + +_Wing._ A few days ago I read in a newspaper of a “single-winged +airplane”. Accustomed as I am to the aircraft which appear between the +drapers’ advertisements in the daily newspapers, I was startled at the +notion of a “single-winged airplane”. A bird has wings. A single-winged +bird would be a queer creature and would be incapable of flying. A +“single-winged airplane” would be equally queer and equally earth-bound. + +The reporter, in trying to hack out an explanatory synonym for +monoplane, docked the aeroplane of one of its wings. + +_Airscrew and Propeller._ An aeroplane can have an airscrew yet no +propeller. Most aeroplanes, in fact, are without propellers. In the +interests of differentiation it is worth endeavouring to confine the +word propeller to the thing that propels or pushes the machine, to +use airscrew as a general term, and tractor airscrew when a precise +definition is required for the thing that pulls the machine. The +colloquialism “prop’” may perhaps be allowed to stand for both tractor +airscrew and propeller. + +In the following pages I make no attempt to hit upon any sudden +invention which may revolutionize flight. I confine myself to +developing lines of progress which have already given some proof of +practicability. For determining the general trend of progress I rely +upon a utilitarian review of the aeronautical situation. I have avoided +leaping into the distant future. Readers will be disappointed to learn +that things like inter-planetary voyaging are not dealt with in this +booklet. + +I am aware that scientists have demonstrated that some of the things +I do mention are impossible. But scientists have demonstrated that +the world is flat, that it is round, and that it is oblong. In the +future they will demonstrate that it is rectangular. It was Mr W. N. +Sullivan, I think, who said that “To judge from the history of science, +the scientific method is excellent as a means of obtaining plausible +conclusions which are always wrong, but hardly as a means of reaching +the truth.” While a few generations can still witness wide variations +of opinion among those who know, I incline to the Pyrrhonic doctrine. +It is impossible to know with certainty what is impossible, and in +attempting a forecast the best that can be done is to take the trend +of contemporary thought and, with that, to build a future upon the +principles of the present. + +I deal with the future of three kinds of flying-machine, the civil, +the service, and the lighter-than-air or airship. The type of machine +I say will become popular for short distance air-transport may seem at +first to be too unconventional. But I think the whole trend of advanced +thought (slotted wings, wingflaps, anti-stall gears and differential +ailerons are manifestations of it) is towards the result I suggest. + + + + + I + + +The future of the aerial sailing-ship or heavier-than-air +flying-machine will be affected more by the attitude which the +world adopts towards it than by technical achievement. In England +the national attitude towards machinery is moulded by statesmen and +financiers. Under the guise of preserving the liberty of the individual +that attitude strangles the life out of the machine; it may be +described in the words of the schoolboy who said that _Habeas Corpus_ +was a phrase used during the great plague of London meaning ‘Bring out +your dead’. + +The statesman has helped to mould the national attitude towards +the motor-car through the medium of laws and the manner of their +enforcement by his servants the police, and the Courts. The history of +the cause and effect of the national attitude towards the motor-car is +being repeated with the flying-machine, and the parallel is close. + +Having the safety of the public for its ostensible object, the +Motor-Car Act limits the speed of motor-vehicles to twenty miles per +hour, proclaims it an offence to drive to the common danger and to be +drunk while in charge of a motor-car. + +Of the last-mentioned provision I will say nothing beyond mentioning +that there are motorists who are incapable of driving safely except +when they are drunk. Of the other two, the 20 m.p.h. speed-limit for +many years has been generally recognized as having no bearing on safety +or danger, whereas for many years motorists have been condemning +certain manoeuvres on the road as constituting, legally as well as in +truth, driving to the common danger. + +The English police, with the connivance of magistrates and Home +Secretaries, have concentrated on enforcing the speed-limit and have +ignored the dangerous manoeuvres. + +This pass has been brought about by the statesman, who has no direct +interest in motor-cars or other new-fangled machines (except when +there is a general strike). As a consequence, the car built as a car +for speed and control is becoming an object of general dislike. The +continued insistence that speed of itself is dangerous and the pompous +tyranny of the police (who find motorists tamer and more plastic than +thieves) are gradually engendering in the public fear of and dislike +for the machine-entity. Instead the wheeled furniture-shop is gaining +in popularity. The doctrine of Safety First is threatening initiative +and killing the spirit of adventure, while there is ignorance of how +to attain safety. Road-racing, the only sure means of increasing +car-safety, is prohibited because it is not safe. The result is the +dismal, abysmal mess described as the modern British motor-car, which +is chiefly remarkable for not containing a single original idea. + +Now the result of statesmen moulding a similar attitude towards the +flying-machine will be equally dismal. Yet they are already exerting +their influence in that direction. + +Instead of employing policemen and Courts to harry and hunt the herd of +aeronauts, designers, and constructors, however, the statesman employs +an army of air-officials. In the world of aeronautics these officials +are all-mighty. The private person has no control over them and no +reply to them. If he goes to Court against them he will lose. If he +appeals against the decision of the Court he will lose again. If he +appeals to public opinion he will lose for the third time. The official +tells the airman what he may not do, warns the designer of the manner +in which he may not design, and informs the constructor how he is +forbidden to construct. + +The result of this official attitude towards the flying-machine is +already faintly visible. + +At the time I write Britain holds no world’s air-records. For seven +years she has made no great flight. She has three or four commercial +air-lines against Germany’s forty-three. Her fastest aircraft is about +50 m.p.h., slower than the fastest foreign aircraft. Her highest +climbing aircraft cannot attain within thousands of feet of the +altitude attained by foreign aircraft. Her longest range aircraft +can accomplish little more than half the distance covered by foreign +aircraft. Her Air Force can put fewer effective war-machines in the air +than any one of three other countries. + +One of our pilots has succeeded in proving that, in an English +aeroplane, you can go from London to anywhere else more slowly, and in +more acute discomfort, than by boat and train. + +In one thing only does England excel. She spends more on aviation than +any other country in the world. + +I am familiar with the excuses for England’s aeronautical failings. I +know that the House of Commons has been told that there is no object +in England attempting to obtain world’s air-records. I have heard the +claim that the Royal Air Force flies more than any other air force, and +I have heard the Air Ministry refuse to supply any figures in support +of the claim. I know that the French are said to obtain their high +speeds and great distances by cutting down the load-factor of their +machines. I have been told about the theory that we _could_ gain +world’s records, run air-lines, win air-races, and have an effective +Air Force but that we do not want to do so. I am familiar with these +excuses, and, having mentioned some of them, I think I can proceed to +indicate a cure for the failings in British aviation. For some cure +is the essential preliminary to any future for the flying-machine in +England. + +The cause of England’s aerial impotence is chiefly official +interference leading to a wrong national attitude towards the aeroplane. + +The cure is to give English aviation the freedom of the air. + +If the official is given powers to make vehicular transport safe, he +will, as we have seen in the motor-car analogy, infallibly not make +vehicular transport safe and he will stop any mechanical development +in the vehicle itself. Freedom, then, is the essential condition of +aeronautical development. + +I said at the beginning of this essay that the financier, as well +as the statesman, helped to mould the public’s attitude towards +the machine. I speak only of the pure financier or business-man who +uses aeroplanes, motor-cars or tin cans with equal indifference +as money-making tools; who has no direct interest in any material +creation; who repeats that honesty is the best policy and hopes the +other man will believe it. + +All such business-men in England are humble imitators of American +business men. In their advertisements, offices, talk, and indigestion +they endeavour as closely as possible to copy the Americans. They +therefore believe that, if English people are to produce cars or +aeroplanes, they must produce them in the American way—that is cheaply +and in mass. Standardization has, in their view, taken the place of +craftsmanship and mass-production of hard work. + +Already events have shown that the English are incapable of imitating +the Americans well. The reason is that the American mechanic regards +his work as an unpleasant necessity, to be got through as quickly as +possible and to be paid for at as high a rate as possible in order that +he may have time and money for the real purpose of life—doing nothing. +The English mechanic, although the statesman is trying to knock such +foolishness out of him, still expects to find something satisfying in +his work. He still seeks a measure of contentment in the exercise of +skill. + +Mass-production fits in well with the American workman’s ideas: it does +not fit in with the English workman’s ideas. The English do not and +will not produce cheap motor-cars or cheap aeroplanes as quickly and as +well as the Americans. + +If English flying-machines are to be made capable of competing with +American and others, the English, after being freed from official +interference, must leave standardization and mass-production to +people who are temperamentally suited to them, and instil into +these flying-machines some of the idiosyncrasy of their race. Their +flying-machines must be creations expressive of the characters of those +who design and construct them. + +The only English cars having any success in America (and elsewhere) are +those few in which perfection of craftsmanship and idealism in design +are notable. They are the kind of cars English designers and mechanics +are temperamentally able to produce. The mass-produced cheap English +car or flying-machine will remain a feeble imitation of the American. +But the idealistic creation, the machine-entity of the English +artist-scientist in car or flying-machine has a place to itself in the +scheme of things. In its best form it is unique. + +The financier’s influence in aviation is not yet so noticeable as +in motoring, but it is becoming stronger. Should the aeroplane pass +entirely into his hands, it will cease to progress as a flying-machine +and will start progressing as a bank-note churn. With the future of +such an instrument I am unable to deal, since I have no personal +experience of either churns or bank-notes. + +If it is to make headway as an individual creation the flying-machine +must receive the freedom of the air. It must develop its own +individuality as a machine-entity. Freedom of the air and the +complementary institution of mechanical craftsmanship are the essential +conditions for development of the flying-machine. Without those +conditions I have nothing to write of its future. With those conditions +the flying-machine presents possibilities of development in high-speed +transport that will warrant future generations describing the present +age as the static age. + +But I must insist that, for the forecast I am now to make, I postulate +the gagging and binding or otherwise bottling-up of the statesman and +financier. + +Only then will this machine-entity, the creation of the +artist-scientist, grow. And that the machine-entity, the car or +aeroplane as a real and living thing exists will be accepted by all who +have spent much time in controlling and looking after high-performance +aeroplanes or racing-cars. These machines, built with a single purpose, +are sensitive to the treatment they receive as the stone is sensitive +to the sculptor’s chisel or the violin-strings to the musician’s bow. + +Turn for one moment from the standard cars, the wheeled furniture-shops +“replete with every comfort including cigarette lighter and flower +vase” which make hideous our streets to the other extreme and regard +the finely-wrought, aesthetically satisfying racing-car which is to +be seen in the American and Continental road-races and occasionally +at Brooklands. I do not suggest that racing-cars should be used for +transport even in these “most brisk and giddy paced times”; I merely +refer to the racing-car as indicative of a certain attitude towards +the machine. The makers of flying-machines should be free, if such is +their desire, to aim at the fineness, craftsmanship, and originality in +design exemplified in the racing-car. + + + + + II + + +The civil flying-machine, when it is examined in the light of +contemporary aeronautical research-work, seems rich in possibilities. + +Apart from electrical repulsion, there are five different ways +of flying, of which only two are at present in general use, +lighter-than-air flight and fixed-wing heavier-than-air flight. I +think that a third method is about to be widely adopted, and that this +third method will, in time, profoundly influence the whole future of +aeronautics. + +A comparison between the present system of artificial flight and +natural flight will suggest what that third method is. + +Let us go to Croydon, the airport of London, and examine a typical +three-engined passenger-carrying aeroplane. + +The three engines are running, for the machine is about to take off. +The coffin-shaped thing whose sides flap in the wind from the airscrews +is the fuselage. The machine shows signs of malnutrition, for its bones +are prominent in the form of wires and struts. As the engines are run +up, the tail shakes and sneezes and coughs until it seems that the +fuselage will be ruptured. Now the machine taxis over the aerodrome, +its engines open up with a roar, it labours over the ground, and then, +looking a little fatigued, it rises into the air. + +It passes overhead making a noise like a thunderstorm, shivering and +quaking, barging its way along with a clumsy ineffectualness which +gives it the appearance of flying through treacle. + +When it is out of sight, go to Waterloo Bridge and watch the gulls. + +A gull is a hopelessly uncommercial flying machine. It does not pay, +it has no ground organization, it is not fitted with wireless, no +control-tower informs it when it may land, no books are kept of its +mileage or hours flown, no managers, assistant-managers, clerks, +secretaries, typists, accountants, ministers, directors, officials, +or meteorologists concern themselves in its safety. No offices, +search-lights, flood-lights, neon-lights, leader-cables, or directional +wireless stations are set aside for its control and supervision. No +treatises are written about its future. A gull is not “a commercial +proposition”. It is, however, a good machine for flying. + +Neither the superficial nor the fundamental defects of the +passenger-carrying aeroplane are present in the gull. The gull is a +coherent, unified structure without exposed bracing-wires, struts, +or engines. It gets off quickly, flies at a great pace (for its +power-loading), is fairly silent and very manoeuvrable, can defeat fog, +rain, hail, snow, and gale, and can alight anywhere. + +As a flying-machine it owes its basic superiority over the aeroplane +to a single, ingenious trick: a trick which looks easy, but which, for +many years, the scientist found it impossible to reproduce in practical +mechanics. + +When flying was first thought about this trick engaged much attention. +The mechanical difficulties in reproducing it, however, refused to be +conquered, and about 1680, Borelli, having this trick in mind, wrote: +“The Icarian invention is entirely mythical because impossible”, a view +which, according to Mr J. E. Hodgson’s _History of Aeronautics_, was +supported by Leibnitz. Afterwards and until just recently the trick has +been almost entirely neglected. I think it probable that it will regain +its old importance, and that it will become the pivot upon which the +whole future of the heavier-than-air land-going flying-machine will +turn. + +What is this trick which for centuries baffled the mechanician, yet +which the gull finds so simple? What is the one fundamental difference +between the means employed by the gull for flying and the means +employed by the aeroplane?—It is the difference between the fixed wing +and the moving wing. + +The gull has the trick of being able to move its wings relative to +its body. The gull is a moving-wing flying-machine. The conventional +aeroplane is a fixed-wing-flying-machine. + +Almost every important advantage which the gull (and any other bird) +has over the type of aeroplane which has so far been most popular may +be traced to the gull’s ability to move its wings. For that reason +alone it can get off without a long run, defeat fog and gale, and +alight anywhere. + +Since the time of the artificial “flying pigeon” of Archytas in the +5th. cent. B.C. the manner of whose flight seems obscure, attempts have +been made to build machines which imitate the gull by flapping their +wings. Several people, including Bladud, the legendary flying King of +Britain, found out in an unpleasant manner that the muscles were not +strong enough to actuate man-lifting wings. And in the construction +of engine-driven ornithopters the mechanical difficulties invariably +proved insuperable. The natural flapping wing has never been exactly +imitated by mechanical means in a flying-machine, nor have the leg and +foot been exactly imitated by mechanical means in a motor-car. + +The motor-mechanician, in using the wheel in place of the leg and foot, +imitated the principle employed by nature for land-locomotion but +not the means. Will the aeroplane-mechanician imitate the principle +employed by nature for flight but not the means? + +The aeroplane-mechanician has already accomplished this feat in a +rudimentary form in the Cierva Autogiro, which is commonly (and +accurately) called the windmill aircraft. + +The helicopter has never achieved much success and, for the present +purpose, it may be classed with the ornithopter as obsolete. The +autogiro, therefore, is the first practical moving-wing aircraft. It +accomplishes that which generation after generation of mechanicians +found it impossible to accomplish. It has seized on the bird-principle +of flight and translated it into practical mechanics. + + + + + III + + +The existing autogiro, although it may not resemble the more developed +types which will eventually appear, is the most successful moving-wing +flying-machine yet produced. Señor de la Cierva’s work was described +by an aeronautical engineer as being of secondary importance only +to that of the Wright brothers. That first flush of enthusiasm may +be over, but there seems little doubt that future generations will +regard Señor de la Cierva as the inventor of moving-wing flight. And +I believe that there will be a fierce battle, more prolonged and more +vigorous than has ever been fought between two machines, the battle +between moving-wing flight and fixed-wing flight. The struggle between +reciprocating engine and turbine, broad gauge and narrow gauge, +lighter-than-air and heavier-than-air, water-cooling and air-cooling +will be as nothing compared with the imminent struggle between +fixed-wing and moving-wing. + +The autogiro obtains lift from a _free_, four-bladed windmill. Each +blade of the windmill is a wing and is articulated at the root so +that its tip can rise and fall. The autogiro is drawn forward by an +ordinary aero-engine and airscrew which are entirely separated from the +windmill. As the machine is drawn through the air the relative wind, +blowing on the blades or wings, rotates the windmill and it lifts the +machine. The wings rise and fall, and this beating motion gives the +machine a measure of stability. + +To exert lift a wing must move through the air. + +The moving-wing aircraft derives lift from wings which can move through +the air even though the body of the machine be stationary or nearly +stationary. In the fixed-wing aeroplane both body and wings must move +if the wings are to exert lift. + +[Illustration: + + Fig. 1.—Diagrammatic representation of moving-wing and fixed-wing + flight. The wings of both machines have travelled equal distances + AA and BB but the body of the moving wing machine has remained + stationary relative to the ground. +] + +The difference between moving-wing and fixed-wing aircraft is so +important to this discussion that I shall venture to describe it again +in different words. A fixed-wing aircraft is like a bird with its wings +paralysed or in splints. A moving-wing aircraft is like a bird having +the full use of all its faculties. (Fig. 1). + +Perhaps the most important advantage which the moving-wing aircraft has +over the fixed-wing aircraft is that it can virtually land on one spot. +The conventional aeroplane must move forward in still air if it is to +keep up; it must still move forward while landing, and afterwards allow +its impetus to be dissipated during a run along the ground. + +In addition to this ability to land on a spot, the moving wing aircraft +is less likely to become uncontrollable while it is in the air. The +fixed-wing aircraft must become uncontrollable in the air if its speed +drops below a certain point. This point was called by airmen “the +stalling speed”. It has needed the mathematician to produce the phrase: +“control of stalled aeroplanes”. In current English a stalled aeroplane +is an aeroplane which is uncontrollable, even if the speed must drop to +zero before this condition arises. If any fixed stalling-_angle_ can be +said to exist outside technical reports, it is the angle at which the +lift of the wings is so reduced that the machine must fall to a nearly +vertical position before recovering. + +The moving-wing aircraft in the rudimentary form we know it to-day +could stall, but it would need a major structural failure or violent +and prolonged misuse of the controls to make it do so. + +And now one of the weapons which will be used in the battle which I +predict between the two main types of heavier-than-air flying machines +will be recognized. The weapon of the spot-landing. + +Taking advantage of its special characteristics, the moving-wing +flying-machine within fifteen years will open hostilities by carrying +passengers into and from the hearts of cities and by running safely +through fog thick enough to stop other transport services. Up till +then the fixed-wing machine with its aerodromes on the outskirts of +cities will have held the field almost unchallenged. But whereas the +fixed-wing aircraft has now had twenty-two years development, the +moving-wing aircraft has had only about three years. + +At first, even when it has matured, people will be shy of the +moving-wing machine, and only gradually will it begin to attract +passengers used to the other type. + +Travellers will begin to realize that, when they go by fixed-wing +machines, they waste so much time and suffer so much discomfort in the +terminal communications that the advantages of the air-passage are +largely neutralized. + +At present the air-traveller going from Paris to London spends one +and a half hours covering the few miles to and from the aerodromes to +the centres of the two cities and only two to two and a half hours +covering the 225 miles of the air-journey. Moreover, he changes +vehicles twice, at Croydon and at Le Bourget, as he does by boat and +train at Dover and at Calais. The aircraft’s ability to fly over land +and sea alike, therefore, has not given the traveller the advantage of +a through-journey. He must taxi from his hôtel in Paris to the place +where the air-company’s car starts, change from car to aeroplane at Le +Bourget, change from aeroplane to car at Croydon, and taxi from the +car’s stopping place to his home. (Fig. 2). + +[Illustration: + + Fig. 2.—Diagrammatic representation of the advantage in flexibility + of an aircraft capable of making spot landings and so of using small + aerodromes. Alone among vehicles it could provide a through journey + to the centres of cities. +] + +The aeroplane dare not risk attempting the journey in thick fog or +heavy snow or hail because, in order to support itself, it must move +forward through the air at a minimum of say 60 miles per hour. At +this speed the pilot, even if aided by a leader-cable, has difficulty +in finding the aerodrome in thick weather; as much difficulty as a +motor-car-driver unable to go slower than 20 miles per hour would have +in crossing London in a dense fog. + +If he thinks he catches a glimpse of a landmark, the pilot cannot stop +or slow down and look again to confirm his impression; he must continue +to travel at 60 m.p.h. And if he fail to find the aerodrome he must +endeavour to put down his machine—still travelling at 60 m.p.h.—on +an area of ground which he cannot see clearly and which he does not +know. If a house, ditch, hedge, tree, chimney, shed, road, telegraph +wire, pole, or other obstruction is in the way the result is a serious +accident. + +The disadvantages under which the fixed-wing aircraft suffers when +landing and when flying during bad visibility are inherent in the +principle of flight it employs. The moving-wing machine will therefore +concentrate its attack at these very points. Since it is able to fly +slowly, and virtually to hover, it can feel its way through fairly +thick fog. Even if the pilot cannot find the aerodrome, comparatively +little danger attaches to a forced landing on unknown ground, because +the descent can be made vertically or almost vertically and there is +almost no run after touching the ground. + +Aerodromes on the roofs of buildings have been foretold with tiresome +persistence. A Frenchman succeeded in landing a fixed-wing aeroplane +on a roof in Paris. Even so I cannot foresee roof-aerodromes for +fixed-wing aircraft, which is the purpose for which former prophets +have foreseen them; but I emphatically can foresee roof-aerodromes for +slow-landing, moving-wing aircraft. + +Travellers going by future air-lines will take a taxi from their homes +to Charing Cross, step into a moving-wing machine on a roof-aerodrome, +fly to Paris, land on another roof-aerodrome near the Place de l’Opéra, +and take a taxi to their hotel. + +I think it likely that, by the time it reaches maturity, the full +speed of the moving-wing aircraft will be below that of the fixed-wing +aircraft. But it will make up for this disadvantage by offering +travellers the advantages of eliminating terminal communications and +changes of vehicle. Part of the time it loses between Croydon and Le +Bourget it will regain between Croydon and Charing Cross and between Le +Bourget and the Place de l’Opéra. Moreover, on days when, through fog, +the fixed-wing aircraft-service is suspended, the moving-wing aircraft +will still operate. + +By these means the moving-wing aircraft will become a formidable +competitor of the fixed-wing aircraft. How will the fixed-wing aircraft +reply to the attack? + +It will make a supreme effort to increase its speed to such an extent +that it will offer to travellers a journey taking from door to door +only about two-thirds of the time occupied by the other type. To do +this the time lost in terminal communications by motor-car will, at +first, be partly recovered by extremely high flying speeds. The 250 +miles per hour air-express will make its appearance. The wing-loading +of these machines will be high. Dr Rohrbach the German designer, +believes that great advantages accrue through high wing-loadings, and +in lectures and papers he has described at length the reasons for his +belief. In order to get these highly loaded machines off quickly and to +land them within an aerodrome of reasonable size, a form of catapult +launching apparatus and an arrester will be employed. + +Catapult-launching has been proved, in England, America, Italy, and +France, to be practicable with fairly large aircraft. There is no +reason to suppose that its development will not continue. + +An aircraft-arrester was described by Mr G. H. Dowty in a paper read +before the Institution of Aeronautical Engineers in October 1926. +It consisted in a drum having wound round it a length of cable. The +aeroplane, by some hook and line device similar to that used by Army +co-operation machines in picking up messages, will connect itself to +the end of the cable. The cable will rotate the drum against a brake, +and the aeroplane will be arrested. Mr Dowty calculates that a machine +travelling at 90 m.p.h. could by this means, be brought to a standstill +in 100 yards without an excessive strain being put on the machine’s +structure. + +The chances of forced landings in these highly loaded fixed-wing +machines will be reduced to a negligible quantity by big reserves of +power and by providing that power through many engines. + +In spite of the acceleration of the fixed-wing services made possible +by the use of these express-aeroplanes, the popularity of the +moving-wing services will continue to grow. The public will count time +well lost against the discomfort of changing twice and motoring long +distances through roads as inadequate for the traffic of that day as +the existing ones are for the traffic of this. They will continue to +take taxis to the Charing Cross roof-aerodrome when they want to travel +by air to Paris, York, Manchester, Glasgow, or Dublin. + +The drifting of passengers to the moving-wing services will spur +the supporters of the fixed-wing services to devise another reply. +They will build motor speedways from Croydon reaching into the heart +of London and from all the other big aerodromes into the hearts of +the cities they serve. These speedways will have no side-turnings +or cross-roads. They will be forbidden to pedestrians, bicyclists, +lorries, ’buses, and similar vehicles. They will be hedged in on either +side like railway lines. The flat-footed influence of policeman and +politician will be excluded and along these tracks cars will carry +passengers to and from the aerodromes at 100 miles per hour. Assisted +by these tracks, the great speed of the fixed-wing services will +temporarily prevail, and a fair supply of passengers will be assured +although the moving-wing services will still flourish. + +The position at this stage of the battle might be described as a +deadlock. The next stage will perhaps be the most remarkable of all. + +It may have been noticed that, unlike most prophets, I have been +exceedingly modest in naming the distances over which these +future services will operate. While discussing the battle between +fixed-wing and moving-wing, instead of speaking of Empire services, +Globe-circling airlines, or non-stop hemispherical flying expresses, +I have spoken of trivial routes like London-Paris and London-Glasgow. +I have not even mentioned London-Karachi, London-Melbourne, or +London-Montreal. + +My modesty was only temporarily assumed. I am now about to throw it +off in order to describe what I believe will be the most important +development of the flying machine. This development will begin during +the latter part of the fixed-wing, _v._ moving-wing battle. + + + + + IV + + +I have spoken, in describing the fixed-wing versus moving-wing battle, +only of short air-lines, because I think the establishment of the +successful short line will precede the establishment of the long. + +It is argued that the saving in time effected by the flying-machine +becomes valuable only in long journeys, so that no one would bother +to go to an aerodrome and take an aeroplane in order to save half an +hour or so, and that the train-service in England is so good that the +aeroplane-service would be incapable of competing with it successfully. +And, while the disadvantages of short air-services are magnified, the +disadvantages of long air-services are forgotten or not appreciated. + +At present a short journey of three or four hours by aeroplane is all +that the average passenger can stand in comfort. There is no room for +him to move about much in the present cabins, and the noise of the +engines, wires, and airscrews is fatiguing to anyone not used to it. +Moreover, the time-basis is not the only basis on which the traveller +compares the merits of the means of travel at his disposal. The ship +provides its passengers with social intercourse and a high degree of +comfort. A long journey by sea is usually a pleasant, invigorating +experience. On a journey by air, on the other hand, the passengers +get no fresh air, they have no opportunity for making friends, +for conversation, dancing, games, or any other of the fascinating +trivialities which flavour life on board a passenger-steamer. The +traveller offered the use of a long distance air-line, therefore, is +invited to choose between, perhaps, three days discomfort and isolation +in the cramped cabin of an aeroplane and three weeks social pleasure +and invigorating laziness on board ship. + +Now the disadvantages which attend long-distance air-travel in modern +type machines are due almost entirely to the small size of passenger +aircraft when compared with ships. The aeroplane will not be successful +as a long-distance vehicle until it can give its passengers most of the +pleasures they would get on board ship. It will not be able to give +its passengers even a small fraction of those pleasures until it is as +large as or nearly as large as the ship. + +The pleasures of long-distance travel vary almost directly as the +size of the vehicle. Can the aeroplane ever be made so large that it +can offer its passengers the space and freedom of even a small-sized +passenger-boat? + +I do not think the aeroplane can ever become sufficiently big, but I do +think the seaplane or the flying-boat can and will become sufficiently +big to offer that degree of space and freedom. + +I believe that aircraft will begin to compete successfully with boat +and train in carrying the merchandize and passengers of the world only +after the coming of the era of the hydro-aeroplane (I use this word to +include both seaplane and flying-boat). + +The longest flight ever made in one machine was made in a +hydro-aeroplane. The largest machines ever built are hydro-aeroplanes. +The heavier-than-air machines carrying the greatest weight are +hydro-aeroplanes. I am confident that the era of the hydro-aeroplane +will come, and that, until it comes, aircraft will not compete +successfully with boat and train. + +I have based my first conclusion, that the moving-wing aeroplane +will become a powerful competitor of the fixed-wing aeroplane for +short-distance air-transport, on flexibility. The moving-wing machine +can go from door to door, no matter if the journey is partly over the +sea and partly over the land. I base my second conclusion, that the +hydro-aeroplane will become the pre-eminent vehicle for long-distance +air-transport, on size. The hydro-aeroplane can be built as large as +may be required. + +If people are to journey even for one day in the same vehicle, they +need space and freedom of movement. They need wide promenade decks, +lounges, restaurants, cabins, smoking-rooms. They cannot be confined to +a single basket chair. + +For long-distance air-transport the sardine-theory so popular with our +London transport controllers must be abandoned. The sardine-theory must +be recognized for what it is, a system of getting more money out of +the passenger by increasing his discomfort. The more you squeeze the +passenger, the more the money oozes out of him. + +The aeroplane cannot, I think, become very much larger than the largest +machines of to-day because the support of much greater weights on the +landing-wheels becomes difficult. At present there are machines in +which each landing-wheel must carry 6 tons. If the weight were much +increased, the three-point suspension on wheels and tail-skid would +become impracticable. The provision of a caterpillar landing-gear and +of aerodromes with prepared surfaces might be possible and might assist +matters if machines, say eight or nine times the size of the present, +were contemplated. But, to obtain the comfort required (and given by +the ship) on a long voyage, the machines would need to be some fifty +or a hundred times the size of the largest existing types. When those +sizes were reached, the problems of supporting the weight on the ground +and of manoeuvring on the ground, taking off, and landing would become +exceedingly difficult to solve. + +Yet these problems are comparatively easy to solve in the large +hydro-aeroplane. A large hydro-aeroplane with a high wing-loading +could, if necessary, use the open sea as its aerodrome. Since the +problem of the forced landing would definitely have been overcome by +the power-unit arrangement, the large hydro-aeroplane would fly over +land or sea. Its stations would be sea ports, lakes, or wide rivers. + +The aeroplane both with moving and fixed wing will certainly grow +in size; but nothing seems to me to indicate that it will be able +to keep pace with the growth of the hydro-aeroplane. The growth +of the hydro-aeroplane is foreshadowed in a French machine and a +German machine which have appeared recently. The hundred-passenger +hydro-aeroplane is a proven possibility. I can see no insuperable +obstacle to the eventual arrival of the 1,000-passenger or the +2,000-passenger hydro-aeroplane. Moreover, the fog-landing problem +is easier to solve in the sea-going than in the land-going fixed-wing +aircraft. Good automatic landing devices are more easily designed for +hydro-aeroplanes than for aeroplanes. + +Mr O. E. Simmonds, of the design staff of a firm of British flying-boat +constructors, said: “The largest successful flying-boats yet built have +weighed about 30,000 lbs. I shall certainly feel that progress has been +inordinately slow if we have not constructed a boat of 100,000 lbs. +gross weight _by the end of the next decade_.” + +The first real air-liner, carrying some five or six hundred passengers, +will probably appear after or towards the end of the battle between +fixed and moving-wing machines. And it will be a flying-boat. The +unsolved problems attending high-altitude air-transport seem to be so +difficult that I am inclined to believe that high altitude transport +will not become a regular method in this generation. + +The possibilities of machines capable of travelling at immense speeds +in the rarefied air at a height of 15 miles or so from the ground are +attractive. But, if a forecast is to be based on research-work actually +accomplished at the time, it is made, then high-altitude flying must be +excluded. + +Among the problems which high-altitude flying involves and which seem +to postpone its arrival to the distant future are: the infinitely +variable pitch airscrew, the light, positive, infinitely variable gear +(without ratchet final drive), the sealed cabin with self-contained +ventilating system, the engine altitude supercharger, and the variable +camber-wing. Among these the Leitner automatic infinitely variable +pitch airscrew is one of the most interesting inventions ever made +in airscrew design, but it is at present in its earliest stages. The +Constantinesco torque-converter, which is an automatic infinitely +variable gear, might be adaptable to aircraft. The sealed cabin +presents great practical difficulties, as does the variable camber-wing. + +From this brief parenthesis the difficulties of high-altitude +transport will be apparent. It is almost certain to come, but its day +is likely to be distant, and for that reason I have concentrated on +possibilities less remote. + +Now that the long and short distance air-liners have been dealt with, I +will give a brief sketch of how the traveller will use these vehicles. +If Mr X, who lives at Hampstead, desires to go to Melbourne, Australia, +he will first pile his luggage onto a taxi and drive to the terminus +of some moving-wing aircraft line. This terminus will be close to the +centre of London: A highly developed moving-wing aircraft will take him +to the coast. The machine will land on the quay beside which will float +a flying-boat express. This machine will be a fixed-wing flying-boat of +about 1,000 tons. It will be a monoplane, the wings growing from the +hull at a sharp dihedral angle and then curving down until they are +horizontal. + +The engines will be particularly interesting. Most designers, even now, +are endeavouring to eliminate reciprocating motion in petrol-engines. +The trend of thought is towards substituting the sleeve-valve for the +poppet-valve and towards increasing the number of cylinders. More and +more inventors “invent” gas-turbines. Their engines have had varying +degrees of failure, although a few, the Jean Mély turbine among +them, are reported to have gained a measure of success. One of these +inventors will soon be completely successful. The movement towards the +rotary gas-engine is too vigorous and too general to remain for ever +unfruitful. The gas-turbine will be the aero-engine of the future. It +will be cooled by an evaporative system. + +One pound of water carries only 20 B.T.U., whereas 1 lb. of steam +carries 966 B.T.U. Wing Commander Cave-Browne-Cave, in a paper read +before the Royal Aeronautical Society, drew attention to the advantages +for aircraft of evaporative engine cooling. He said: “By far the +lightest way of conveying heat is as the latent heat of steam.” On test +a standard aero-engine gave the same power and fuel-consumption with +evaporative as with water-cooling. The greatest advantage will accrue +in reduction of resistance. Panels in the aircraft surface will receive +heat in the steam and thus the drag caused by water-radiators even of +the wing or strut type, or air-cooled cylinders will be eliminated. +The evaporative cooling system will not freeze up at the highest +altitudes: it will probably maintain the engine at a more even working +temperature than an air-cooling system, and the steam will provide a +suitable means of heating the passenger cabins and pilot’s cockpit and +of cooking. + +The flying-boat to which Mr X is now having his luggage transferred +then, has twelve evaporative-cooled gas-turbines housed in the +wings, six on the starboard and six on the port side. Eight of them +will drive tractor airscrews and four will drive propellers through +torque-converters. There may be a system of concentrating the whole +engine-power at three or four airscrews. + +The entire machine, including the wing-coverings, will be built of +metal. “I cannot conceive”, said M. Dewoitine, the French designer, +“that the ultimate aeroplane can be in anything else but metal, in the +same way that metal ships to-day completely replace the wooden ships +of days gone by.” The living quarters in the hull would be arranged +on labour-saving lines. The passengers would have drawing-room, +dining-saloon, lounge, and promenade deck. The promenade deck on a +long-distance air-express will be different from the promenade deck +on a liner. It will be enclosed in the hull and will be lighted by a +transparent roof and sides. + +Mr X finds his cabin arranged in much the same way as in a ship, and, +having settled his things, he goes up to the lounge, where the other +passengers are congregating. A few minutes later, with a faint hum, two +of the tractor-airscrews begin to revolve, and the flying-boat moves +slowly away from the quay. Two more airscrews start revolving, and the +machine, having taxied out, turns into wind. It pauses a moment as +if it were taking breath, then the twelve air-screws spin faster and +faster until they appear as discs of light. The machine moves forward +heavily, a solid mass of metal, with the passengers watching from the +windows of the promenade deck. It lumbers through the water, but throws +up but little spray. Then it seems to stretch itself, throw back its +head, and to rise bodily out of the water until it runs on the surface +of—instead of in—the water. Already it appears lighter and less clumsy. +Finally, after giving the water two or three parting pats, it takes to +the air and, in spite of its great mass, instantly becomes an agile, +graceful flying-machine. + +The usual amusements, the usual eating, drinking, reading, and talking +will employ the passengers’ time in the air. For the daily round goes +on in much the same way ashore, afloat or aflight. The night flying is +exhilarating, although there is, of course, almost no sense of speed. +Though the sea is rough, the machine, at 4,000 ft. is as steady as a +rock. As the first stopping place rushes towards the machine, the hum +of the engines alters note and the machine dips in a gentle glide. +The mouth of a river, with shipping on it and two more flying-boat +expresses lying at a quay a short way up the river, comes into view. +The machine wheels round and glides closer and closer to the water. +Four of the airscrews give a short burst of speed, and then the hull +rips the surface of the water with a hiss. + +Soon afterwards Mr X has said good-bye to his voyage acquaintances who +are disembarking, and the machine is off on the next stage. + +The success of the large, long-distance flying-boat will mark the +beginning of the concentration of fixed-wing machines on long-distance +routes and the concentration of moving-wing machines on short, distance +routes. The fixed-wing machine, finding it has no rival in the large +flying-boat type and finding that it has a strong rival in the +comparatively small land-going type (that rival being the moving-wing +machine) will gradually remove itself from the short air-lines. The +position will then be that all short air-lines are run by moving-wing +land-going aircraft while all long air-lines are run by fixed-wing +sea-going aircraft. + +The real air-liner, as distinct from the commercial flying soap-box +of to-day, will be an immense sea-going air-vessel. It will be a +self-contained town offering greater attractions to the pleasure-seeker +than any other kind of small town. When that machine makes its +appearance the Air Age will have begun. + + + + + V + + +Before I described the passenger-carrying flying-machine towards which +contemporary research-work seems directed, I postulated the freedom +of the air for that machine. I stipulated that the statesman and the +financier should be gagged and bound. Now that I come to private-flying +and air-racing, however, the imagination jibs at the notion of a +similar freedom of the air. If the statesman were prevented from +meddling with the technical development of the passenger-carrying +flying-machine, he would most likely turn with redoubled vigour to +the task of controlling, organizing, watching over, regulating, and +generally bleeding the private, the record-breaking, and the racing +aircraft. + +I can, therefore, sketch the future of those machines only as the +statesman will direct it. + +The small fixed-wing private flying-machine, especially in the +amphibian form, will gradually become more and more popular and, as it +grows more popular, so the statesman will take more notice of it. His +first opportunity for direct action will come when a few people get +killed in an accident involving a private aircraft. + +Taking advantage of the Press outcry, of the screams of the Safety +First societies and of the opportunity for personal aggrandizement, +Members of Parliament will pass a Flying-Machine Act. + +Among the provisions of this Act will be a 40-miles per hour minimum +speed-limit. No heavier-than-air craft will be permitted to fly at a +speed of less than 40 miles per hour. It is easy to follow the workings +of the official mind in setting this speed-limit. A fixed-wing aircraft +crashes not because it goes too fast but because it goes too slowly. +Therefore, the statesman will reason, if it is illegal to go too +slowly, there will be no more accidents. + +Another provision will make it illegal for anyone suffering from +nicotine-poisoning to be in charge of a flying-machine. (Prohibition +will be established in England by this time, so that no clause about +“drunk in charge of a flying-machine” will be necessary.) + +Further regulations will make it necessary for every private pilot to +pass a medical examination once a month as a condition of his having a +pilot’s licence. Having passed this examination, he will be required +to wear, while in charge of an aeroplane, two 8-inch metal discs, with +a number stamped upon them. One disc will be worn on the left shoulder +and the other on the top of the flying-helmet. + +The aeroplane, in addition to its letter markings on wings and +fuselage, will be required to exhibit three plaques bearing +identification-numbers. One will be on the centre section, one on the +undercarriage, and one on the port side of the fuselage. The aeroplane +will also carry metropolitan or county police markings on four tablets +of given size, besides markings of the appropriate local council on +plates of certain specified dimensions, and small circular pieces of +paper contained in approved holders on the rear port interplane-strut +(or wing-tip in the case of a monoplane), the rear starboard +interplane-strut (or wing-tip) the undercarriage port forward-strut, +the tail-fin, the fuselage, and the top plane gravity-tank (if any). + +In addition to the pilot’s logbook, machine logbook, engine logbook, +pilot’s licence, and airworthiness certificate, there will be a +registration-book, travel-triptych, flight-permit, landing-permit, and +housing-pass. + +These items are, of course, extra to the navigation-lights, wing-tip +flares, cockpit-illuminants, parachute-flares, fire-extinguishers, +silencers, life-saving parachutes, and other obligatory equipment, such +as lifebelts, fire-proof bulkheads, stall-indicators, warning-signals, +and Very lights. + +These regulations will provide the police with the opportunity of +displaying their keen sense of duty. They will ignore the old-fashioned +and mundane murders, and will say with Horace Walpole: “Do not wonder +that we do not entirely attend to the things of earth; fashion has +ascended to a higher element.” + +Conceive the vigour and elegance with which they will uphold the 40 +m.p.h. minimum speed-limit. What their stopwatches (for they will still +use them) and observation lacks in accuracy, they will make up for by +the free imagery and sweeping poetic fancy of their evidence in Court. + +The pilot who flies while suffering from nicotine-poisoning will be +the object of universal opprobrium. His social doom will be sealed +when the witness says that his breath _smelt of tobacco_ and that he +must have been smoking the same morning. The pilot’s statement that he +only had two cigarettes during the previous month will be completely +discountenanced. + +But the best chance for the police will come when the private +moving-wing machine begins to make an appearance. Then will dawn the +true constabulary millennium. + +The moving-wing machine, as it has been shown, can almost hover and can +fly comfortably at five or ten miles per hour. One day a moving-wing +machine will pass through a police-trap while its pilot is admiring the +countryside or inquiring from his companion where they will stop for +lunch. + +The pilot will appear in Court charged with flying at less than 40 +miles per hour, and there will be a sensation when the detectives +disclose that defendant’s speed, which he did not deny, was 8 miles per +hour over a measured furlong. + +The magistrate will say that, although he had been on that bench for +thirty-five years, never in his whole experience, never from the +moment that he had accepted those duties, never since the time when he +devoted himself to the administration of justice, _never_ had he heard +of such a flagrant disregard for the safety of the public. Here was a +flying-machine, over a populous area, travelling at 8 miles per hour +when everyone knew that a flying-machine gained its lift by virtue of +its speed through the air, and that if it travelled at less than forty +miles per hour it was liable at any moment to fall upon the heads of +the people below. + +The pilot might endeavour to explain the technical points in the case. +If he did so, his fine would be greater than if he merely pleaded +guilty and said no more. + +That case will be the signal for a wholesale persecution of moving-wing +aircraft-owners. The Home Secretary will issue warnings, magistrates +will wish that they could send pilots to prison—in fact there will be +the usual process of departmental browbeating which we know so well. +The theory that the private flyer will not be summoned for slow flying +because there will be moving-wing passenger aircraft also capable +of slow flying, does not bear investigation. There are now lorries, +motor-buses, charabancs, steam-wagons, and trams which persistently +exceed the 20-miles per hour speed limit. They are not prosecuted, nor +will the passenger aircraft of the future be prosecuted. + +Having given some idea of the delightful future which lies before the +private flyer, I will add a few remarks upon air-racing. + +After motor-road racing, air-racing is the finest sport yet invented. I +give it ten more years life in England. + +Before the War air-racing at Hendon was highly successful in that it +attracted many entries and large crowds of spectators. Since the War +air-racing has been unsuccessful. There are signs, however, that there +will soon be a revival of it. Larger and larger crowds will collect to +watch it. Special machines will be constructed, the number of entries +will increase, continental firms will take part. + +Then the statesman will step in and play his part, as he always must +when anything becomes popular. + +Air-racing is and will remain dangerous. Statesmen and newspapers +will discover this and talk about it. Now I am informed upon the best +authority that in England no one is allowed to face danger of any +kind, whether he wants to or not. The State arranges that all dangers, +physical and moral, are kept away from the individual. He may not do, +see, hear smell, or taste anything calculated to arouse him from +the suety state of mind so highly esteemed by the politician. The +Englishman is nursed from birth to death by an army of officials. He is +permitted to risk his life only in war. + +Air-racing, since it is dangerous, will gradually be stamped out of +existence. Air-racing improves the aircraft as a machine-entity; it +would have a good effect upon the private flyer’s machine and upon the +war-machine. When air-racing has been stopped, therefore, a decline in +the quality of the private flying-machine and the service-machine will +result. + +Air-racing (with which I include record-breaking) is as important to +pure aeronautical development as anything else. The history of the +Schneider Cup seaplane-race is some indication of the technical advance +racing achieves. In 1913 at Monaco the Schnieder Cup, was won by France +at 45.4 m.p.h. In 1914 (England) at 86.4 m.p.h., in 1919 (Italy) at +124.9 m.p.h. (This race was declared void). In 1920 (Italy) at 107.2 +m.p.h. In 1921 (Italy) at 111.4 m.p.h., in 1922 (England) at 146.1 +m.p.h., in 1923 (America) 177.4 m.p.h., in 1925 (America) 234.4 m.p.h. +and in 1926 (Italy) at 246.5 m.p.h. (Fig. 3). + +[Illustration: _Fig. 3 Schneider Cup_] + +The Schneider Cup figures show that the much boasted rapidity of +progress in the performance of high-speed aircraft during the War +is a myth. During the War, progress was almost completely stopped. +Even if the Italian win of 1919 at 124.9 m.p.h. be accepted (and the +race was declared void because Janello was not observed at one of the +turning-points) the rate of progress compares unfavourably with the +rates before and after the War. If, on the other hand, the rate be +judged by the accepted wins of 1914 and 1920 then the top speed of +seaplanes rose only 20.8 m.p.h. in 6 years against 139.3 m.p.h. in 6 +years after the War. + +Up to 1926 there has been little sign of a falling off in the rate of +progress in high-speed seaplane-design, and a rough estimate, puts the +probable speed of the winner in 1928 at 290 m.p.h. and in 1930 at 320 +m.p.h. + +Record-breaking has a similar effect to racing upon technical +development. In 1919 Sir John Alcock and Sir A. Whitten Brown flew the +Atlantic non-stop for the first time in a heavier-than-air machine. +They covered 1,890 miles in about 16 hours. In 1926 M. Dieudonné Coste +and Capitaine Rignot covered 3,400 miles non-stop in 32 hours. + +Whatever country takes up and encourages private flying, air-racing +and record-breaking will play a big part in the future of the +flying-machine. + + + + + VI + + +I see no reason to depart from the forecast of the future military +flying-machine which I make in my _Strategy and Tactics of Air +Fighting_. + +Since the fixed-wing machine will probably retain a slightly superior +performance over the moving-wing machine (although it is fair to +Señor de la Cierva to add that some of the best mathematicians find +on theoretical calculation that the moving-wing aircraft should be +equal in all-round performance to the fixed-wing type), it is likely +that, excepting a proportion of army co-operation machines and a small +proportion of night-bombers the moving-wing machine will not in the +future be used in large numbers for war purposes. + +Before constructing the machine of the future, let us go to the +R.A.F. annual Display, and refusing to be fascinated by the intricate +shape of the breeches worn by officers and men, let us examine an +experimental single-seater fighter of the present. When in the air the +machine is remarkable only for the undercarriage-struts and wheels +which hang below the fuselage. They look like a labourer’s hands in the +drawing-room, they are sturdy but, in the air, they do not seem to know +what to do with themselves, they are in unaccustomed surroundings. + +Let this machine be compared with the gull. I use the gull for these +comparisons because it is common and easily observed and so provides +an accessible model. Indeed, it was the gull which instructed Mr A. +V. Roe and helped him to become, on June 8th, 1908, the first man to +fly over British soil. The experimental single-seater fighter at the +R.A.F. Display has very few characteristics of which any bird need be +ashamed. One of these characteristics, however, is undoubtedly its +undercarriage. The gull folds up its undercarriage when it is in the +air; it lets it down only when it is about to land. + +But now compare the experimental machine with one of the standard +machines in an R.A.F. squadron. The standard service-machine looks as +if it has got into the hands of an accessory fiend, one of those who +believe that the part is greater than the whole. It is so cluttered +up with odds and ends, so cut about, modified, added to, and altered +that it resembles no other flying-machine, animal or artificial. It +is a sort of winged Air Ministry, a receptacle full of interesting +information about everything but the air. + +Since this mania for encumbering service-machines is only a superficial +failing, it is possible, after remarking it, to go direct to the +service-machine of the future. + +There is first a new type to be noted, the aerial artillery-machine. +This will be a large multi-engined monoplane carrying a single +medium-sized gun and a few rounds of ammunition. It will be able to +direct close range gunfire from the air at important ground-objectives. +The advantage of the aerial big gun over the bomb will be in accuracy, +the advantage of the bomb over the aerial big gun will be in the +great weight of projectile made possible by the absence of any heavy +launching-apparatus like a gun. The height of the aeroplane acts on +the bomb as the explosive charge on the projectile. But at long ranges +the bomb, with the newest sights and under the best conditions, is +inaccurate, and at short ranges its velocity is low. The aerial big gun +permits ground-objectives and ships to be attacked at short range with +projectiles travelling at a high velocity. + +The success of low-flying attacks by machine-guns in the late War was +a sufficient demonstration of the potentialities of the low-altitude +gun-attack from the air. Experiments were made long ago in mounting +small guns in aeroplanes and in arranging for the absorption of the +recoil. Against other aircraft the aerial big gun would not be used. In +aerial fighting weight of projectile is of less importance than rate of +fire. + +The night-bombing machine of the future will be an immense flying-boat. +It is likely that this type will also be used for day bombing. If so, +it will be heavily armed with machine-guns and will not go out without +a strong screen and escort of fighting machines. + +The fighting aeroplane will be particularly interesting. It will be +a small monoplane without external bracing-wires or struts and the +undercarriage will be retractable. It will carry one man, and will be +an all-metal machine mounting a gas-turbine of some 1,000 h.p. + +Performance-figures must be the wildest guess work, because the closest +examination of the trend of research gives but small information on +the probable rates of progress in speed and climb. Mr A. V. Roe has +frequently stated his belief that the future flying-machine will attain +1,000 miles per hour. I will, therefore, give my fighter of this +generation 400 miles per hour, 800 miles per hour in the dive, a climb +to 20,000 feet in 4 minutes, and a service-ceiling (the height at which +the rate of climb falls below 100 feet per minute) of 60,000 feet. + +In order that the fighter may operate at high altitudes, and in order +that it may be able to change height suddenly by diving or climbing +steeply, the pilot will be housed in a pressure-cockpit, from which he +will look through a streamline conning-tower made in some transparent +material. Unless he were enclosed in some such pressure-chamber or +pressure-suit, the pilot would be unable to withstand the cold and +the reduced pressure of extreme altitudes, and the sudden changes in +temperature and pressure, when the machine was climbing or diving. +Pressure-suits are now being experimented with in France and probably +elsewhere. + +Oxygen would be supplied to the pressure-chamber and an emergency +oxygen-apparatus would provide against the chamber being pierced by +a bullet. Some form of dessicating apparatus would be essential to +prevent the transparent conning-tower from fogging up. The fewest +accessories would be carried by these fighters of the future. + +In general military aircraft will be more specialized than they are +to-day, there will be no many-purpose machines. Instead, the number of +specialist machines will steadily increase. In addition to the aerial +big guns, there will be flying-tanks or lightly armoured low-flying +machines for attacks on ground-targets. These will be developed from +the “Salamander”, “Vampire”, and other armoured aircraft introduced +during the late War. + +Armour for fighting and bombing-aircraft will not be employed for many +years. The gunners on the large flying-boat bombers, however, will be +provided with small shields. + +Perhaps a general idea of the future of the flying-machine in war may +best be given by quoting a newspaper report of a day air-attack on +London in the next war. + +I cut the headlines and start with Our Special Correspondent, who, with +the printer’s assistance, has, if I may be permitted to say so, trodden +on it through all four gears: + + “The greatest air-raid in history was launched on London yesterday + evening by a formation estimated at between six and seven hundred + aeroplanes. + + “For nearly two hours the earth shook to the thunder of the guns, + while far up in the blue vault of Heaven there was the flash of + wheeling wings, as the heroic pilots of the Royal Air Force plunged + again and again to the attack. + + “Never before has the heart of the Empire been the objective of + so powerful and so determined an offensive, never before have the + British air-forces so covered themselves with glory. + + “Owing to the vigorous defence which met the raiders as they neared + London, casualties are low. Official figures have not yet been + issued, but it is thought that fewer than 1,000 people were killed + while only some 7,000 were wounded. + + “FIRST WARNING. + + “The raiders were first reported by the ‘concrete ears’ or wireless + disc and super-sensitive microphone sentries which encircle + the coast. A large formation (there was much doubt as to the + number of machines) was said to be approaching Southampton, and + with the exception of three emergency squadrons, every R.A.F. + fighting-aeroplane rushed to the attack. + + “As our machines, sweeping through the freezing blue of the great + altitudes, approached the raiders, the raiders turned and made off + at full speed. Our machines bent on reaching the enemy, tore after + them. + + “It was at this moment that ominous news came through. A second + hostile formation, far larger than the first, had been detected + approaching the East coast south of Harwich. + + “Nearly the whole of the defending airforce was far away: London’s + bosom was bared to the attack. + + “The new formation—first given as 400 machines but later corrected to + 600—was in four great layers and flying at 170 miles per hour. + + “The three emergency R.A.F. squadrons, numbering 54 machines of an + old type with five or six experimental machines from Martlesham Heath + and Farnborough, went up at once and hurled themselves at the vast + enemy formation. + + + “THREE TO ONE ODDS. + + “The second layer of the hostile formation, which consisted of + about 150 long-distance fighters, engaged them. A furious battle + ensued, while the remainder of the hostile fleet, aerial big guns, + flying-boat bombers, and, at an extreme altitude, a further batch of + long-distance fighters, continued on their way towards London. + + “The old R.A.F. machines were literally butchered by the whip-lashes + of lead which cracked and curled from the small-calibre stream-fire + enemy guns. One of our machines had both its wings cut off and fell + to the ground with such force that the airscrew-boss was buried 18 + feet in the earth. + + “Meanwhile wireless messages had reached the R.A.F. formation, which + had been drawn off by the feint attack on Southampton. _They had + turned and were tearing to the rescue at 350 miles per hour._ + + “The two big formations were in sight of each other when the enemy + was about 20 miles south west of Chelmsford. At this time there + was no active opposition to the invaders in the air. Anti-aircraft + batteries, however, were blackening the sky with shells, and had + succeeded in bringing down two enemy machines. + + “There seemed now no hope that London would escape the full force + of the attack. Already two ten-ton wireless-controlled flying-bombs + had struck the city. Even so there was little panic. The gas-mask + distribution had worked well, and no one was unprovided. The usual + shelters were made full use of, but many people, against the orders + of the police, remained in the streets anxiously looking skywards and + listening to the almost continuous tear and roar of the guns. + + + “ANXIOUS MOMENTS. + + “For some reason the news that the first hostile formation had + retired had not come through on the wireless. And, since no one knew + that far the greater part of the R.A.F. defending forces had gone in + pursuit of that formation or that the emergency squadrons had been + cut to pieces, a good deal of uneasiness prevailed among the watchers. + + “Where are the R.A.F. fighters? was the question uppermost in + everyone’s mind. + + “As the noise of the guns grew louder and seemed to vibrate and echo + among the houses, considerable alarm was displayed. There were one or + two ugly scenes, and some women and children were trampled to death + in raid shelters at Hoxton and Liverpool Street. + + “A quarter of an hour before dusk the two lower layers of the hostile + formation were sighted by some people who had been foolish enough to + take up positions on the roof of the _Daily Post_ offices in Fleet + Street. Only the trained eyes of the anti-aircraft spotters aided + by the new visual detection instruments could distinguish the upper + layers. + + “Still there was no sign of our aeroplanes. The stories of those + irresponsible alarmists who, in books and articles, have prophesied + as far back as 1927 that London would be wiped out by aerial attack, + seemed likely to prove too true. Excitement among the watchers gave + way to a certain grimness. Then came a change in the situation. + + “‘What’s that?’ + + + “THE BATTLE JOINED. + + “Someone was pointing immediately overhead. Nothing could at first be + distinguished in the blue sky; then someone else waved excitedly. + + “‘Yes, I caught a glimpse.’ + + “Just then the light of the setting sun glinted momentarily on some + infinitesimal speck like a minute silver fish, rushing through the + air at a great height. No one dared to express the hopes which they + felt. + + “A moment later what looked at first like a small red rose sprang + into being high up over the enemy, high over the smoke-blackened sky + where the anti-aircraft shells were bursting. Then it fell, like a + flaming bomb. There was fighting going on up there, out of sight, in + the upper air. + + “Still the lower hostile layers came on through the roar and shock + of the anti-aircraft fire. They were already over the outskirts of + London. Something else fell from above twisting horribly. The white + of parachutes drifting fantastically could be observed through + high-powered glasses. + + “Quite suddenly the continuous thunder of the anti-aircraft + fire ceased. It was succeeded by an uncanny calm, and then by a + high-pitched metallic scream which grew in an ear-piercing crescendo. + _The R.A.F. aerial destroyers were engaging the lower enemy layers._ + + “The R.A.F. arrows of the upper air plunged into the very heart of + the raiders, streaming fire and lead. They wheeled and turned among + them with a swift, purposeful agility. + + + “RAIN OF BOMBS. + + “The hostile formation began to split up, and simultaneously the + enemy commander gave by wireless the order to bomb. On the outskirts + of London huge factories and houses were suddenly transformed into + pillars of white dust. The shriek and thump of the falling bombs was + heard clearly in Central London. + + “‘It was as if the ground were being torn up under your feet’, said a + postman eyewitness. ‘The people in the shelters came out and began + to run. They didn’t stop to think; they just ran like wild beasts, + trampling on each other, and hitting out at anyone who got in the + way, whether man, woman or child. + + “‘The rain of bombs was so continuous that for as far as you could + see earth and buildings were spouting up in the air with human limbs + mixed up in them. The sound of the bombs falling was what knocked + people’s nerves up as much as anything. + + “‘The gas-bombs didn’t seem so bad, but the incendiary bombs were a + nasty sight, at one time it looked as if the whole air had caught + fire.’ + + “According to official information, damage was small. Only the aerial + artillery-machines attained an objective of military importance. They + completely destroyed the F.E. aircraft factory at Finsbury Park. + + “The raiders had timed their attack so as to escape in the dark, and, + although the new night detection flood-lights worked well, there is + no doubt that the hostile casualties were so few because our fighters + were hampered by the darkness. + + “According to figures supplied by the Air Department of the War + Ministry, 37 hostile machines were brought down while only eighteen + of our own aerial destroyers were lost. The three emergency R.A.F. + squadrons which first attacked lost 39 machines and had several more + severely damaged. + + “The raid is regarded by experts as a decisive victory for the + British Air-arm and a complete and convincing justification of the + policy of the Air-staff. It is pointed out that the raiders were + prevented from reaching their objective, and that, apart from the + old-type R.A.F. machines, our casualties are smaller than those of + the enemy.” + +In another part of the same paper was this insignificant paragraph. + + “A late Central News message, delayed owing to the disorganization + caused by yesterday’s air-raid, states that the hostile formation + which made a feint attack on Southampton and was driven off by our + machines, later returned to the same place and bombed it continuously + for half an hour, causing many casualties and much material damage.” + +In the stop-press news was this: + + “One a.m. Large hostile formation of aircraft reported approaching + mouth of Thames.” + +In the above skit I have not dwelt on the terrible side of air-warfare +in the future. Yet I feel that that is the side upon which all who are +competent to do so, and who wish to prevent future wars should dwell. +Several novels have given pictures of future aerial warfare, but I have +not seen its inevitable horrors realistically portrayed. Unless those +horrors are portrayed frequently and in their true and shocking form, +people will soon forget the unpleasant side of air-war and think only +of its romantic and glorious side. + +In the interests of humanity it would be a good thing if some able +novelist or film-producer would give us a statement of the crude +horrors of air-war. If such a one arises, he will have the satisfaction +of having helped the cause of peace and of having his work banned by +the Censor. + + + + + VII + + +So far I have spoken only of heavier-than-air flying-machines. There +is also the airship to which many people pin their faith for future +long-distance air-transport. + +The airship was neglected in England after the War because experience +seemed to show that it was incapable of playing a useful part in +warfare. Its revival was chiefly due to Commander Burney, who +continually drew attention to his conviction that the airship could be +made a safe and successful long-distance air-transport vehicle. + +Most airship advocates believe in the bigger the better theory. If +the gas-capacity of an airship is doubled, the disposable lift may +be quadrupled, and the size will be only about 1.3 times that of the +smaller vessel. For this reason the two English airships now being +built are each of 5,000,000 cu. ft. gas-capacity. One is being built +by the Government, the other for the Government to Commander Burney’s +general design. + +These airships have provided matter for many speeches on Empire +air-ship-routes of the future. At the recent Imperial Conference +airships were spoken of as the right vessels for long-distance +air-lines. These forecasts are based on slender foundations. + +Since 1914 only one successful commercial airship-service has been +run. The ‘Bodensee’ in 1919 made 103 trips between Berlin and +Friedrichshafen and carried 2450 passengers. Those 103 trips seem to +be an insecure basis upon which to build calculations about voyages +halfway round the world. The new airships may go from England to Egypt +in 2½ days, and from England to Melbourne in 12½ days, but nothing +has occurred in airship-development to strengthen the probability of +such events. The two new airships are nothing more than a gigantic +experiment. + +I must make some unpleasant remarks about airships, but, before +doing so, it is necessary to record admiration of the English +airship policy. I do not agree with the man with a genius for mixed +metaphor who described the airship scheme as the “thin edge of the +white elephant”. On the contrary, in initiating this experiment the +Government has shown imagination and daring. Airship enthusiasts are +to have an opportunity of testing their theories. If the experiment +is a hopeless failure no money and no time will have been wasted, for +the knowledge gained will be of value in directing future aeronautical +development. + +But to the question: Will the airship become the long-distance air +vehicle of the future? I answer No. + +I base my view on an examination of airship history and on the opinions +of airship pilots. Upon that basis the probable future of the 5,000,000 +cu. ft. vessels will be this: + +The first one to be completed will make a first flight, and come to its +200 ft. mooring mast successfully. For several months it will cruise +periodically, and minor structural modifications will be made. It will +fly to India and back. Paying passengers will be accepted, and after +considerable delay the first long-distance passenger-flight will be +flown. Some two or three years after the airship comes from its shed, +it will meet with disaster. + +More airships will be designed and built, larger still than those now +building. There will be another disaster. + +By then the heavier-than-air machine in the moving-wing and fixed-wing +forms, will have proved itself capable of doing all that airships can +do and doing it more safely, more quickly, more regularly, and more +cheaply. The airship will gradually disappear, and its place will +be taken by the heavier-than-air craft, as the balloon is gradually +disappearing and its place being taken by the airship. + +There is only one major difference between balloon and airship, a +difference in the amount of control exercised by the airman. The same +difference exists between airship and aeroplane. The aeroplane is +the more controllable. It can rise and descend with less preliminary +juggling; it can turn more quickly; and it can land more quickly. + +In support of my pessimistic forecast I append a brief outline of +air-ship-history. + +Lighter-than-air man-carrying flight started in 1783 when Pilâtre de +Rozier, the world’s first aeronaut, went up in a Montgolfier balloon. +In the same year a hydrogen filled balloon flew from Paris to Nesle. In +the following year an oblong balloon propelled by parasols as oars was +made by the Duc de Chartres. + +In 1852 a small airship propelled by a steam engine was made. In 1882 +Tissandier’s airship worked by an electric motor was flown, and in +1884 the airship ‘La France’ was flown. Count Zeppelin built his first +airship in 1900. Santos Dumont constructed an airship, and, in 1902, +flew it round the Eiffel Tower. + +It will be seen that the airship has passed through a longer period of +development than the heavier-than-air flying-machine, even if the claim +that Clement Ader flew in 1897 be accepted. Lighter-than-air flight, +indeed, dates back to 1783. + +The result of that longer development period is not such as to warrant +too sanguine a belief in the airship’s future. The accidents to +non-rigids and rigids have been many in proportion to the number of +vessels actually flown. + +The last type of non-rigid built in England was the North Sea type, +one of which was destroyed by lightning soon after the War. Nine +people were killed. Among the rigids, R.34, which made the double +Atlantic crossing, was damaged beyond repair in 1921. R.33 has had many +adventures, among them being her break-away from the mooring-mast in +1925. This was hailed as a proof of the safety of airships. R.33 is +still alive, though she is treated with the respect due to her age. + +R.36, the first British airship to be adapted for commercial purposes, +is still in existence though not in service. R.38 broke up over the +Humber in 1921 and forty-four people were killed. + +The U.S.A. have the ‘Los Angeles’, which is the name now given to the +German designed and built ZR.3. The ‘Shenandoah’ broke away from +her mast in 1924, and was destroyed in 1926. According to survivors’ +stories, the ‘Shenandoah’ was wrecked by the same kind of vertical +air-currents that wrecked an early Zeppelin in 1913. In all, nine +American airships have perished violently since the War. + +The French ‘Dixmude’ was the ex-Zeppelin L.72. She created a world’s +record in 1923, and then disappeared off Sicily with all hands (54 +people). + +Considering how few large airships have been built, and how short a +time they are, on the average, kept in service, the proportion of +serious accidents is high. In war that proportion is prohibitively high. + +The Zeppelin works have turned out more rigid airships than any factory +in the world. The fate of every Zeppelin airship completed since 1915 +was recently given in a French technical paper. I do not vouch for +the figures, but they come from a fairly reliable source. Out of 76 +airships no fewer than 37 (or nearly 50%) were put out of service +before they had completed one year’s work. Only four airships were +kept in service for more than three years. This is the record of the +firm which knows more about airships than any other firm in the world. +Yet airships have had longer to develop than aeroplanes. + +How can an airship be said to be superior to a fixed-wing aeroplane? +It can hover, it has a longer range, it provides a higher degree +of comfort for its passengers. How is it inferior to a fixed-wing +aeroplane? It is slower, it requires more elaborate ground +organization, it is less controllable. Since the moving-wing aircraft +is, as yet, far from fully developed, I leave it out of discussion. + +The argument that an aeroplane is always using a part of its power for +lifting is counterbalanced by the argument that an airship is always +using a part of its power for driving its bulk against the wind. An +airship cannot stand still and use no power. There is always some wind +at a height, and the airship must either use power or drift. An airship +with all its engines stopped is as helpless as an aeroplane with all +its engines stopped. The aeroplane, while gliding, still retains a +large measure of controllability, and the pilot can select its landing +ground within 50 yards. The airship has less controllability when its +engines are stopped. Its commander would be lucky if he could select +its landing ground within 50 miles. + +It is right that the airship should have every chance to develop. If +it prove successful, so much the better. I do not think it will prove +successful. If it is made to work, it will be at more than ten times +the cost in money and lives, at which heavier-than-air machines have +been made to work. + +Sometimes it seems regrettable that even a small part of the sums +spent on developing airships cannot be spent on developing the +passenger-carrying aeroplane. + +I will give airships the last word by recalling that Sir George Cayley +in 1816 expressed his belief that airships would eventually prove +the most efficient and safest means of air travel, and by quoting Dr +Eckener: + +“A modern airship”, said Dr Eckener, “is at least as capable in heavy +weather as a modern aeroplane. A storm will never have more effect than +delaying or speeding a trip, and it can become directly dangerous only +inasmuch as it may delay the voyage beyond the reach of fuel supply.” + + + + + VIII + + +“_Sans nul doute, l’avenir est a la bête de métal._” People regret the +age of the machine: I cannot do so. A well-made machine, in which are +struck into life the dreams of its designer, is a vital, individual +creation. + +A flying machine designed by a man with a sense of flight is more +faithful and far more intelligent than a horse or a dog. Thoughts are +reflected in it, the careful skill of the executant is expressed in +its every component. It is sensitive and quick to feel roughness or +gentleness in the hand of him who controls it. Its moods are without +number, and it can surprise, please, and irritate. It is susceptible to +being coaxed, and it enjoys obeying one whose orders are firmly given. +But it can be treacherous to the weak or to one who does not try to +understand it or who is persistently cruel to it. + +At present there is a tendency to knock the life out of the machine, +to subdue it to the level of tooth paste and tin cans. If that +tendency makes headway, the flying-machine of the future must lose its +individuality, and the age of the machine may eventually prove to be a +dark age. + + + + + +——————————————————————————————————————————————————+ + | | + | _SIXTY VOLUMES ARE NOW PUBLISHED_ | + | | + | TO-DAY AND | + | TO-MORROW | + | | + | _Each, pott 8vo, boards, 2/6 net_ | + | | + | | + | This series of books, by some of the | + | most distinguished English thinkers, | + | scientists, philosophers, doctors, | + | critics, and artists, was at once | + | recognized as a noteworthy event. | + | Written from various points of view, one | + | book frequently opposing the argument | + | of another, they provide the reader | + | with a stimulating survey of the most | + | modern thought in many departments of | + | life. Several volumes are devoted to the | + | future trend of Civilization, conceived | + | as a whole; while others deal with | + | particular provinces. It is interesting | + | to see in these neat little volumes, | + | issued at a low price, the revival of a | + | form of literature, the Pamphlet, which | + | has been in disuse for many years. | + | | + | _Published by_ | + | KEGAN PAUL, TRENCH, TRUBNER & CO., LTD. | + | Broadway House: 68–74 Carter Lane, London, E.C.4 | + | | + +——————————————————————————————————————————————————+ + + + + + _FROM THE REVIEWS_ + + + _Times Literary Supplement_: “An entertaining series of vivacious + and stimulating studies of modern tendencies.” + + _Spectator_: “Scintillating monographs ... that very lively and + courageous series.” + + _Observer_: “There seems no reason why the brilliant To-day and + To-morrow Series should come to an end for a century of + to-morrows. At first it seemed impossible for the publishers + to keep up the sport through a dozen volumes, but the series + already runs to more than two score. A remarkable series....” + + _Daily Telegraph_: “This admirable series of essays, provocative + and brilliant.” + + _Nation_: “We are able to peer into the future by means of that + brilliant series [which] will constitute a precious document + upon the present time.”—_T. S. Eliot._ + + _Manchester Dispatch_: “The more one reads of these pamphlets, the + more avid becomes the appetite. We hope the list is endless.” + + _Irish Statesman_: “Full of lively controversy.” + + _Daily Herald_: “This series has given us many monographs of + brilliance and discernment.... The stylistic excellencies of + this provocative series.” + + _Field_: “We have long desired to express the deep admiration + felt by every thinking scholar and worker at the present day + for this series. We must pay tribute to the high standard of + thought and expression they maintain. As small gift-books, + austerely yet prettily produced, they remain unequalled of + their kind. We can give but the briefest suggestions of their + value to the student, the politician, and the voter....” + + _New York World_: “Holds the palm in the speculative and + interpretative thought of the age.” + + + + + _VOLUMES READY_ + + + =Daedalus=, or Science and the Future. By J. B. S. HALDANE, Reader + in Biochemistry, University of Cambridge. _Seventh impression._ + + “A fascinating and daring little book.”—_Westminster Gazette._ + “The essay is brilliant, sparkling with wit and bristling with + challenges.”—_British Medical Journal._ “Predicts the most + startling changes.”—_Morning Post._ + + =Callinicus=, a Defence of Chemical Warfare. By J. B. S. HALDANE. + _Second impression._ + + “Mr Haldane’s brilliant study.”—_Times Leading Article._ “A + book to be read by every intelligent adult.”—_Spectator._ “This + brilliant little monograph.”—_Daily News._ + + =Icarus=, or the Future of Science. By BERTRAND RUSSELL, F.R.S. + _Fourth impression._ + + “Utter pessimism.”—_Observer._ “Mr Russell refuses to + believe that the progress of Science must be a boon to + mankind.”—_Morning Post._ “A stimulating book, that leaves one + not at all discouraged.”—_Daily Herald._ + + =What I Believe.= By BERTRAND RUSSELL, F.R.S. _Third impression._ + + “One of the most brilliant and thought-stimulating little + books I have read—a better book even than _Icarus_.”—_Nation._ + “Simply and brilliantly written.”—_Nature._ “In stabbing + sentences he punctures the bubble of cruelty, envy, narrowness, + and ill-will which those in authority call their morals.”—_New + Leader._ + + =Tantalus=, or the Future of Man. By F. C. S. SCHILLER, D.SC., + Fellow of Corpus Christi College, Oxford. _Second impression._ + + “They are all (_Daedalus_, _Icarus_, and _Tantalus_) + brilliantly clever, and they supplement or correct one + another.”—_Dean Inge_, in _Morning Post_. “Immensely valuable + and infinitely readable.”—_Daily News._ “The book of the + week.”—_Spectator._ + + =Cassandra=, or the Future of the British Empire. By F. C. S. + SCHILLER, D.SC. + + “We commend it to the complacent of all parties.”—_Saturday + Review._ “The book is small, but very, very weighty; + brilliantly written, it ought to be read by all shades of + politicians and students of politics.”—_Yorkshire Post._ + “Yet another addition to that bright constellation of + pamphlets.”—_Spectator._ + + =Quo Vadimus?= Glimpses of the Future. By E. E. FOURNIER D’ALBE, + D.SC. _Second Impression._ + + “A wonderful vision of the future. A book that will be talked + about.”—_Daily Graphic._ “A remarkable contribution to a + remarkable series.”—_Manchester Dispatch._ “Interesting and + singularly plausible.”—_Daily Telegraph._ + + =Thrasymachus=, the Future of Morals. By C. E. M. JOAD, author of + “The Babbitt Warren,” etc. _Second impression._ + + “His provocative book.”—_Graphic._ “Written in a style of + deliberate brilliance.”—_Times Literary Supplement._ “As + outspoken and unequivocal a contribution as could well be + imagined. Even those readers who dissent will be forced to + recognize the admirable clarity with which he states his case. + A book that will startle.”—_Daily Chronicle._ + + =Lysistrata=, or Woman’s Future and Future Woman. By ANTHONY M. + LUDOVICI, author of “A Defence of Aristocracy,” etc. _Second + Impression._ + + “A stimulating book. Volumes would be needed to + deal, in the fullness his work provokes, with all + the problems raised.”—_Sunday Times._ “Pro-feminine + but anti-feministic.”—_Scotsman._ “Full of brilliant + common-sense.”—_Observer._ + + =Hypatia=, or Woman and Knowledge. By MRS BERTRAND RUSSELL. With a + frontispiece. _Third impression._ + + An answer to _Lysistrata_. “A passionate vindication of the + rights of woman.”—_Manchester Guardian._ “Says a number of + things that sensible women have been wanting publicly said for + a long time.”—_Daily Herald._ + + =Hephaestus=, the Soul of the Machine. By E. E. FOURNIER D’ALBE, + D.SC. + + “A worthy contribution to this interesting series. A delightful + and thought-provoking essay.”—_Birmingham Post._ “There is a + special pleasure in meeting with a book like _Hephaestus_. + The author has the merit of really understanding what he is + talking about.”—_Engineering._ “An exceedingly clever defence + of machinery.”—_Architects’ Journal._ + + =The Passing of the Phantoms=: a Study of Evolutionary Psychology + and Morals. By C. J. PATTEN, Professor of Anatomy, Sheffield + University. With 4 Plates. + + “Readers of _Daedalus_, _Icarus_ and _Tantalus_, will be + grateful for an excellent presentation of yet another point + of view.”—_Yorkshire Post._ “This bright and bracing little + book.”—_Literary Guide._ “Interesting and original.”—_Medical + Times._ + + =The Mongol in our Midst=: a Study of Man and his Three Faces. + By F. G. CROOKSHANK, M.D., F.R.C.P. With 28 Plates. _Second + Edition, revised._ + + “A brilliant piece of speculative induction.”—_Saturday + Review._ “An extremely interesting and suggestive book, which + will reward careful reading.”—_Sunday Times._ “The pictures + carry fearful conviction.”—_Daily Herald._ + + =The Conquest of Cancer.= By H. W. S. WRIGHT, M.S., F.R.C.S. + Introduction by F. G. CROOKSHANK, M.D. + + “Eminently suitable for general reading. The problem is fairly + and lucidly presented. One merit of Mr Wright’s plan is that he + tells people what, in his judgment, they can best do, _here and + now_.”—From the _Introduction_. + + =Pygmalion=, or the Doctor of the Future. By R. MCNAIR WILSON, M.B. + + “Dr Wilson has added a brilliant essay to this series.”—_Times + Literary Supplement._ “This is a very little book, but there is + much wisdom in it.”—_Evening Standard._ “No doctor worth his + salt would venture to say that Dr Wilson was wrong.”—_Daily + Herald._ + + =Prometheus=, or Biology and the Advancement of Man. By H. S. + JENNINGS, Professor of Zoology, Johns Hopkins University. + _Second Impression._ + + “This volume is one of the most remarkable that has yet + appeared in this series. Certainly the information it contains + will be new to most educated laymen. It is essentially a + discussion of ... heredity and environment, and it clearly + establishes the fact that the current use of these terms has + no scientific justification.”—_Times Literary Supplement._ “An + exceedingly brilliant book.”—_New Leader._ + + =Narcissus=: an Anatomy of Clothes. By GERALD HEARD. With 19 + illustrations. + + “A most suggestive book.”—_Nation._ “Irresistible. Reading + it is like a switchback journey. Starting from prehistoric + times we rocket down the ages.”—_Daily News._ “Interesting, + provocative, and entertaining.”—_Queen._ + + =Thamyris=, or Is There a Future for Poetry? By R. C. TREVELYAN. + + “Learned, sensible, and very well-written.”—_Affable Hawk_, + in _New Statesman_. “Very suggestive.”—_J. C. Squire_, in + _Observer_. “A very charming piece of work, I agree with + all, or at any rate, almost all its conclusions.”—_J. St Loe + Strachey_, in _Spectator_. + + =Proteus=, or the Future of Intelligence. By VERNON LEE, author of + “Satan the Waster,” etc. + + “We should like to follow the author’s suggestions as to the + effect of intelligence on the future of Ethics, Aesthetics, + and Manners. Her book is profoundly stimulating and should be + read by everyone.”—_Outlook._ “A concise, suggestive piece of + work.”—_Saturday Review._ + + =Timotheus=, the Future of the Theatre. By BONAMY DOBRÉE, author of + “Restoration Drama,” etc. + + “A witty, mischievous little book, to be read with + delight.”—_Times Literary Supplement._ “This is a delightfully + witty book.”—_Scotsman._ “In a subtly satirical vein he + visualizes various kinds of theatres in 200 years’ time. His + gay little book makes delightful reading.”—_Nation._ + + =Paris=, or the Future of War. By Captain B. H. LIDDELL HART. + + “A companion volume to _Callinicus_. A gem of close thinking + and deduction.”—_Observer._ “A noteworthy contribution to a + problem of concern to every citizen in this country.”—_Daily + Chronicle._ “There is some lively thinking about the future of + war in Paris, just added to this set of live-wire pamphlets on + big subjects.”—_Manchester Guardian._ + + =Wireless Possibilities.= By Professor A. M. LOW. With 4 diagrams. + + “As might be expected from an inventor who is always so fresh, + he has many interesting things to say.”—_Evening Standard._ + “The mantle of Blake has fallen upon the physicists. To them + we look for visions, and we find them in this book.”—_New + Statesman._ + + =Perseus=: of Dragons. By H. F. SCOTT STOKES. With 2 illustrations. + + “A diverting little book, chock-full of ideas, Mr Stokes’ + dragon-lore is both quaint and various.”—_Morning Post._ “Very + amusingly written, and a mine of curious knowledge for which + the discerning reader will find many uses.”—_Glasgow Herald._ + + =Lycurgus=, or the Future of Law. By E. S. P. HAYNES, author of + “Concerning Solicitors,” etc. + + “An interesting and concisely written book.”—_Yorkshire Post._ + “He roundly declares that English criminal law is a blend of + barbaric violence, medieval prejudices and modern fallacies.... + A humane and conscientious investigation.”—_T.P.’s Weekly._ “A + thoughtful book—deserves careful reading.”—_Law Times._ + + =Euterpe=, or the Future of Art. By LIONEL R. MCCOLVIN, author of + “The Theory of Book-Selection.” + + “Discusses briefly, but very suggestively, the problem of the + future of art in relation to the public.”—_Saturday Review._ + “Another indictment of machinery as a soul-destroyer ... Mr + McColvin has the courage to suggest solutions.”—_Westminster + Gazette._ “This is altogether a much-needed book.”—_New Leader._ + + =Pegasus=, or Problems of Transport. By Colonel J. F. C. FULLER, + author of “The Reformation of War,” etc. With 8 Plates. + + “The foremost military prophet of the day propounds a solution + for industrial and unemployment problems. It is a bold + essay ... and calls for the attention of all concerned with + imperial problems.”—_Daily Telegraph._ “Practical, timely, + very interesting and very important.”—_J. St Loe Strachey_, in + _Spectator_. + + =Atlantis=, or America and the Future. By Colonel J. F. C. FULLER. + + “Candid and caustic.”—_Observer._ “Many hard things have been + said about America, but few quite so bitter and caustic as + these.”—_Daily Sketch._ “He can conjure up possibilities of a + new Atlantis.”—_Clarion._ + + =Midas=, or the United States and the Future. By C. H. BRETHERTON, + author of “The Real Ireland,” etc. + + A companion volume to _Atlantis_. “Full of astute observations + and acute reflections ... this wise and witty pamphlet, a + provocation to the thought that is creative.”—_Morning Post._ + “A punch in every paragraph. One could hardly ask for more + ‘meat.’”—_Spectator._ + + =Nuntius=, or Advertising and its Future. By GILBERT RUSSELL. + + “Expresses the philosophy of advertising concisely and + well.”—_Observer._ “It is doubtful if a more straightforward + exposition of the part advertising plays in our public and + private life has been written.”—_Manchester Guardian._ + + =Birth Control and the State=: a Plea and a Forecast. By C. P. + BLACKER, M.C., M.A., M.R.C.S., L.R.C.P. + + “A very careful summary.”—_Times Literary Supplement._ “A + temperate and scholarly survey of the arguments for and against + the encouragement of the practice of birth control.”—_Lancet._ + “He writes lucidly, moderately, and from wide knowledge; his + book undoubtedly gives a better understanding of the subject + than any other brief account we know. It also suggests a + policy.”—_Saturday Review._ + + =Ouroboros=, or the Mechanical Extension of Mankind. By GARET + GARRETT. + + “This brilliant and provoking little book.”—_Observer._ “A + significant and thoughtful essay, calculated in parts to make + our flesh creep.”—_Spectator._ “A brilliant writer, Mr Garrett + is a remarkable man. He explains something of the enormous + change the machine has made in life.”—_Daily Express._ + + =Artifex=, or the Future of Craftsmanship. By JOHN GLOAG, author of + “Time, Taste, and Furniture.” + + “An able and interesting summary of the history of + craftsmanship in the past, a direct criticism of the present, + and at the end his hopes for the future. Mr Gloag’s real + contribution to the future of craftsmanship is his discussion + of the uses of machinery.”—_Times Literary Supplement._ + + =Plato’s American Republic.= By J. DOUGLAS WOODRUFF. _Fourth + impression._ + + “Uses the form of the Socratic dialogue with devastating + success. A gently malicious wit sparkles in every + page.”—_Sunday Times._ “Having deliberately set himself an + almost impossible task, has succeeded beyond belief.”—_Saturday + Review._ “Quite the liveliest even of this spirited + series.”—_Observer._ + + =Orpheus=, or the Music of the Future. By W. J. TURNER, author of + “Music and Life.” _Second impression._ + + “A book on music that we can read not merely once, but + twice or thrice. Mr Turner has given us some of the finest + thinking upon Beethoven that I have ever met with.”—_Ernest + Newman_ in _Sunday Times_. “A brilliant essay in contemporary + philosophy.”—_Outlook._ “The fruit of real knowledge and + understanding.”—_New Statesman._ + + =Terpander=, or Music and the Future. By E. J. DENT, author of + “Mozart’s Operas.” + + “In _Orpheus_ Mr Turner made a brilliant voyage in search of + first principles. Mr Dent’s book is a skilful review of the + development of music. It is the most succinct and stimulating + essay on music I have found....”—_Musical News._ “Remarkably + able and stimulating.”—_Times Literary Supplement._ “There + is hardly another critic alive who could sum up contemporary + tendencies so neatly.”—_Spectator._ + + =Sibylla=, or the Revival of Prophecy. By C. A. MACE, University of + St. Andrew’s. + + “An entertaining and instructive pamphlet.”—_Morning + Post._ “Places a nightmare before us very ably and + wittily.”—_Spectator._ “Passages in it are excellent + satire, but on the whole Mr Mace’s speculations may be + taken as a trustworthy guide ... to modern scientific + thought.”—_Birmingham Post._ + + =Lucullus=, or the Food of the Future. By OLGA HARTLEY and MRS C. + F. LEYEL, authors of “The Gentle Art of Cookery.” + + “This is a clever and witty little volume in an entertaining + series, and it makes enchanting reading.”—_Times Literary + Supplement._ “Opens with a brilliant picture of modern man, + living in a vacuum-cleaned, steam-heated, credit-furnished + suburban mansion ‘with a wolf in the basement’—the wolf of + hunger. This banquet of epigrams.”—_Spectator._ + + =Procrustes=, or the Future of English Education. By M. ALDERTON + PINK. + + “Undoubtedly he makes out a very good case.”—_Daily Herald._ + “This interesting addition to the series.”—_Times Educational + Supplement._ “Intends to be challenging and succeeds in being + so. All fit readers will find it stimulating.”—_Northern Echo._ + + =The Future of Futurism.= By JOHN RODKER. + + “Mr Rodker is up-to-the-minute, and he has accomplished a + considerable feat in writing on such a vague subject, 92 + extremely interesting pages.”—_T. S. Eliot_, in _Nation_. + “There are a good many things in this book which are of + interest.”—_Times Literary Supplement._ + + =Pomona=, or the Future of English. By BASIL DE SÉLINCOURT, author + of “The English Secret”, etc. + + “The future of English is discussed fully and with fascinating + interest.”—_Morning Post._ “Full of wise thoughts and happy + words.”—_Times Literary Supplement._ “His later pages must + stir the blood of any man who loves his country and her + poetry.”—_J. C. Squire_, in _Observer_. “His finely-conceived + essay.”—_Manchester Guardian._ + + =Balbus=, or the Future of Architecture. By CHRISTIAN BARMAN. + + “A really brilliant addition to this already distinguished + series. The reading of _Balbus_ will give much data for + intelligent prophecy, and incidentally, an hour or so of + excellent entertainment.”—_Spectator._ “Most readable and + reasonable. We can recommend it warmly.”—_New Statesman._ “This + intriguing little book.”—_Connoisseur._ + + =Apella=, or the Future of the Jews. By A QUARTERLY REVIEWER. + + “Cogent, because of brevity and a magnificent prose style, + this book wins our quiet praise. It is a fine pamphlet, + adding to the value of the series, and should not be + missed.”—_Spectator._ “A notable addition to this excellent + series. His arguments are a provocation to fruitful + thinking.”—_Morning Post._ + + =The Dance of Çiva=, or Life’s Unity and Rhythm. By COLLUM. + + “It has substance and thought in it. The author is very much + alive and responsive to the movements of to-day.”—_Spectator._ + “A very interesting account of the work of Sir Jagadis + Bose.”—_Oxford Magazine._ “Has caught the spirit of the Eastern + conception of world movements.”—_Calcutta Statesman._ + + =Lars Porsena=, or the Future of Swearing and Improper Language. By + ROBERT GRAVES. _Third impression._ + + “Goes uncommonly well, and deserves to.”—_Observer._ “Not for + squeamish readers.”—_Spectator._ “No more amusingly unexpected + contribution has been made to this series. A deliciously + ironical affair.”—_Bystander._ “His highly entertaining essay + is as full as the current standard of printers and police + will allow.”—_New Statesman._ “Humour and style are beyond + criticism.”—_Irish Statesman._ + + =Socrates=, or the Emancipation of Mankind. By H. F. CARLILL. + + “Devotes a specially lively section to the herd + instinct.”—_Times._ “Clearly, and with a balance that is almost + Aristotelian, he reveals what modern psychology is going to + accomplish.”—_New Statesman._ “One of the most brilliant and + important of a remarkable series.”—_Westminster Gazette._ + + =Delphos=, or the Future of International Language. By E. SYLVIA + PANKHURST. + + “Equal to anything yet produced in this brilliant series. Miss + Pankhurst states very clearly what all thinking people must + soon come to believe, that an international language would + be one of the greatest assets of civilization.”—_Spectator._ + “A most readable book, full of enthusiasm, an important + contribution to this subject.”—_International Language._ + + =Gallio=, or the Tyranny of Science. By J. W. N. SULLIVAN, author + of “A History of Mathematics.” + + “So packed with ideas that it is not possible to give + any adequate _résumé_ of its contents.”—_Times Literary + Supplement._ “His remarkable monograph, his devastating summary + of materialism, this pocket _Novum Organum_.”—_Spectator._ + “Possesses a real distinction of thought and manner. It must be + read.”—_New Statesman._ + + =Apollonius=, or the Future of Psychical Research. By E. N. + BENNETT, author of “Problems of Village Life,” etc. + + “A sane, temperate and suggestive survey of a field of inquiry + which is slowly but surely pushing to the front.”—_Times + Literary Supplement._ “His exposition of the case for + psychic research is lucid and interesting.”—_Scotsman._ + “Displays the right temper, admirably conceived, skilfully + executed.”—_Liverpool Post._ + + =Aeolus=, or the Future of the Flying Machine. By OLIVER STEWART. + + “Both his wit and his expertness save him from the + nonsensical-fantastic. There is nothing vague or sloppy in + these imaginative forecasts.”—_Daily News._ “He is to be + congratulated. His book is small, but it is so delightfully + funny that it is well worth the price, and there really are + sensible ideas behind the jesting.”—_Aeroplane._ + + =Stentor=, or the Press of To-Day and To-Morrow. By DAVID OCKHAM. + + “A valuable and exceedingly interesting commentary on a vital + phase of modern development.”—_Daily Herald._ “Vigorous and + well-written, eminently readable.”—_Yorkshire Post._ “He has + said what one expects any sensible person to say about the + ‘trustification’ of the Press.”—_Spectator._ + + =Rusticus=, or the Future of the Countryside. By MARTIN S. BRIGGS, + F.R.I.B.A. + + “Few of the 50 volumes, provocative and brilliant as most + of them have been, capture our imagination as does this + one.”—_Daily Telegraph._ “The historical part is as brilliant a + piece of packed writing as could be desired.”—_Daily Herald._ + “Serves a national end. The book is in essence a pamphlet, + though it has the form and charm of a book.”—_Spectator._ + + =Janus=, or the Conquest of War. By WILLIAM MCDOUGALL, M.B., F.R.S. + + “Among all the booklets of this brilliant series, none, I + think is so weighty and impressive as this. It contains + thrice as much matter as the other volumes and is profoundly + serious.”—_Dean Inge_, in _Evening Standard_. “A deeply + interesting and fair-minded study of the causes of war + and the possibilities of their prevention. Every word is + sound.”—_Spectator._ + + =Vulcan=, or the Future of Labour. By CECIL CHISHOLM. + + “Of absorbing interest.”—_Daily Herald._ “No one, perhaps, + has ever condensed so many hard facts into the appearance of + agreeable fiction, nor held the balance so nicely between + technicalities and flights of fancy, as the author of this + excellent book in a brilliant series. _Vulcan_ is a little + book, but between its covers knowledge and vision are pressed + down and brimming over.”—_Spectator._ + + =Hymen=, or the Future of Marriage. By NORMAN HAIRE. + + This candid and unprejudiced survey inquires why the majority + of marriages to-day seem to be so unsatisfactory, and finds + the answer in the sexual ethic of our civilization which is + ill adapted to our social and economic needs. The problems + of sex-morality, sex-education, prostitution, in-breeding, + birth-control, trial-marriage, and polygamy are all touched + upon. + + =The Next Chapter=: the War against the Moon. By ANDRÉ MAUROIS, + author of ‘Ariel’, etc. + + This imaginary chapter of world-history (1951–64) from the pen + of one of the most brilliant living French authors mixes satire + and fancy in just proportions. It tells how the press of the + world is controlled by five men, how world interest is focussed + on an attack on the moon, how thus the threat of world-war is + averted. But when the moon retaliates.... + + =Galatea=, or the Future of Darwinism. By W. RUSSELL BRAIN. + + This non-technical but closely-reasoned book is a challenge + to the orthodox teaching on evolution known as Neo-Darwinism. + The author claims that, although Neo-Darwinian theories can + possibly account for the evolution of forms, they are quite + inadequate to explain the evolution of functions. + + =Scheherazade=, or the Future of the English Novel. By JOHN + CARRUTHERS. + + A survey of contemporary fiction in England and America + lends to the conclusion that the literary and scientific + influences of the last fifty years have combined to make the + novel of to-day predominantly analytic. It has thus gained in + psychological subtlety, but lost its form. How this may be + regained is put forward in the conclusion. + + =Caledonia=, or the Future of the Scots. By G. M. THOMSON. + + Exit the Scot! Under this heading the Scottish people are + revealed as a leaderless mob in whom national pride has been + strangled. They regard, unmoved, the spectacle of their + monstrous slum-evil, the decay of their industries, the + devastation of their countryside. This is the most compact and + mordant indictment of Scottish policy that has yet been written. + + =Albyn=, or Scotland and the Future. By C. M. GRIEVE, author of + ‘Contemporary Scottish Studies’, etc. + + A vigorous answer, explicit and implicit, to _Caledonia_, + tracing the movements of a real Scottish revival, in music, + art, literature, and politics, and coming to the conclusion + that there is a chance even now for the regeneration of the + Scottish people. + + =Lares et Penates=, or the Future of the Home. By H. J. BIRNSTINGL. + + All the many forces at work to-day are influencing the + planning, appearance, and equipment of the home. This is + the main thesis of this stimulating volume, which considers + also the labour-saving movement, the ‘ideal’ house, the + influence of women, the servant problem, and the relegation + of aesthetic considerations to the background. Disconcerting + prognostications follow. + + + _NEARLY READY_ + + =Archon=, or the Future of Government. By HAMILTON FYFE. + + A survey of the methods of government in the past leads the + author to a consideration of conditions in the world of to-day. + He then indicates the lines along which progress may develop. + + =Hermes=, or the Future of Chemistry. By T. W. JONES, B.SC., F.C.S. + + Chemistry as the means of human emancipation is the subject + of this book. To-day chemistry is one of the master factors + of our existence; to-morrow it will dominate every phase of + life, winning for man the goal of all his endeavour, economic + freedom. It may also effect a startling change in man himself. + + =The Future of Physics.= By L. L. WHYTE. + + The last few years have been a critical period in the + development of physics. We stand on the eve of a new epoch. + Physics, biology, and psychology are converging towards + a scientific synthesis of unprecedented importance whose + influence on thought and social custom will be so profound as + to mark a stage in human evolution. This book interprets these + events and should be read in connexion with _Gallio_, by J. W. + N. Sullivan, in this series. + + =Ikonoclastes=, or the Future of Shakespeare. By HUBERT GRIFFITHS. + + Taking as text the recent productions of classical plays in + modern dress, the author, a distinguished dramatic critic, + suggests that this is the proper way of reviving Shakespeare + and other great dramatists of the past, and that their + successful revival in modern dress may perhaps be taken as an + indication of their value. + + + _IN PREPARATION_ + + =Bacchus=, or the Future of Wine. By P. MORTON SHAND. + + =Mercurius=, or the World on Wings. By C. THOMPSON WALKER. + + =The Future of Sport.= By G. S. SANDILANDS. + + =The Future of India.= By T. EARLE WELBY. + + =The Future of Films.= By ERNEST BETTS. + + ————————————————————— + + + Transcriber’s Note (continued) + +Errors in punctuation and simple typos have been corrected without note. +Archaic or variant spelling, inconsistent hyphenation, etc., has been +left as it appears in the original publication unless as noted in the +following: + + Page 12 – “insistance” changed to “insistence” (The continued insistence + that speed) + + Page 35 – “persistance” changed to “persistence” (foretold with tiresome + persistence) + + End matter page 17 – “montrous” changed to “monstrous” (their monstrous + slum-evil) + + + + +*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK 76988 *** diff --git a/76988-h/76988-h.htm b/76988-h/76988-h.htm new file mode 100644 index 0000000..18e7905 --- /dev/null +++ b/76988-h/76988-h.htm @@ -0,0 +1,4069 @@ +<!DOCTYPE html> +<html lang="en"> +<head> + <meta charset="UTF-8"> + <title> + Aeolus | Project Gutenberg + </title> + <link rel="icon" href="images/cover.jpg" type="image/x-cover"> + <style> + +body { + margin-left: 10%; 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} + +/* === Transcriber's notes === */ +.transnote { + margin-left: 10%; + margin-right: 10%; + font-size: small; +} + +.transnote-end { + background-color: #E6E6FA; + margin-left: 10%; + margin-right: 10%; + color: black; + padding: 0.5em; + margin-bottom: 5em; + font-size: small; + font-family: sans-serif, serif; +} + +p.TN-style-1 { + text-indent: 0em; + margin-top: 1.5em; + font-size: small; +} + +p.TN-style-2 { + text-align: left; + margin-top: 1.0em; + text-indent: -1em; + margin-left: 3em; + font-size: small; +} + +@media print { .transnote { + margin-left: 2.5%; + margin-right: 2.5%; + } +} + +@media print { .transnote-end { + margin-left: 2.5%; + margin-right: 2.5%; + } +} + +.x-ebookmaker .transnote { + margin-left: 5%; + margin-right: 5%; +} + +.x-ebookmaker .transnote-end { + margin-left: 5%; + margin-right: 5%; +} + +.illowp52 {width: 52%;} +.x-ebookmaker .illowp52 {width: 100%;} +.illowp40 {width: 40%;} +.x-ebookmaker .illowp40 {width: 100%;} +.illowp30 {width: 30%;} +.x-ebookmaker .illowp30 {width: 100%;} + +.box { + border: 3px solid black; + padding: 1em; + margin: 3em; +} + +.container { + display: flex; + justify-content: center; + /* align-items: center; */ +} + + + </style> +</head> +<body> +<div style='text-align:center'>*** START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK 76988 ***</div> + +<figure class="figcenter illowe20 x-ebookmaker-drop"> + <a rel="nofollow" href="images/cover.jpg"> + <img class="w100" src="images/cover.jpg" alt=""> + </a> +</figure> + +<div class="transnote chapter p4"> +<a id="top"></a> +<p class="noindent center TN-style-1 bold">Transcriber’s Note</p> + +<p class="noindent center TN-style-1">The cover image was restored by Thiers +Halliwell and is granted to the public domain.</p> + +<hr class="r10"> + +<p class="noindent center TN-style-1">See the <a class="underline" href="#TN">end</a> +of this document for details of corrections and other changes.</p> +</div> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + +<p class="noindent center p6 b6 bold" style="font-size: 160%;"> +AEOLUS +</p> +</div> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + +<p class="noindent center p8 b8"> +TO-DAY AND TO-MORROW<br> +<span class="small" style="display: inline-block; margin-top: 0.5em;"> +<i>For the Contents of this Series see the end of<br> +the Book</i></span> +</p> +</div> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + +<h1> +AEOLUS<br> +<span style="display: inline-block; font-size:45%; margin-top: 1.0em;">OR</span><br> +<span style="display: inline-block; font-size:60%; margin-top: 0.7em;">THE FUTURE OF THE<br> +FLYING MACHINE</span> +</h1> + +<p class="noindent center bold p3" style="font-size: 90%;">BY</p> +<p class="noindent center bold">OLIVER STEWART</p> +<p class="noindent center bold" style="font-size: 80%;"><i>Author of ‘The Strategy and Tactics of<br> +Air Fighting,’ etc.</i></p> + +<p class="noindent center bold p8"><span class="smcap" style="font-size:90%;">London</span></p> +<p class="noindent center bold" style="margin-top: -0.4em;"><span style="font-size:95%;">KEGAN PAUL, TRENCH, TRUBNER & Co., <span class="smcap">Ltd.</span></span></p> +<p class="noindent center bold" style="margin-top: -0.4em;"><span class="smcap" style="font-size:90%;">New York: E. P. Dutton & Co.</span></p> +</div> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + +<hr class="r50"> +<p class="noindent center small b12"> +Made and Printed in Great Britain by<br> +M. F. Robinson & Co., Ltd., at The Library Press, Lowestoft. +</p> +</div> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[5]</span></p> + +<p class="noindent center bold p2" style="font-size: 140%;">AEOLUS</p> +<p class="noindent center bold" style="font-size: 110%;">THE FUTURE OF THE<br> +FLYING-MACHINE</p> + +<h2 class="nobreak" style="margin-top: 1.3em;"> + INTRODUCTION +</h2> +</div> + +<p>The aeroplane is an aerial sailing-ship, +its wings are the sails, its source of power +the wind. It can claim to be a direct +descendant of the family of sailing ships +whose father was <span class="smcap">Aeolus</span>, god of the +winds and the inventor of sails.</p> + +<p>Aeroplane, helicopter, ornithopter, +rotorplane, and autogiro are sailing-ships +because they all derive lift from +sails or aerofoils. An aerofoil is a structure +so shaped as to obtain a reaction from +the wind—a sail is nothing more and +nothing less. Whether the wind is natural +or is artificially raised by an engine does +not affect the function of aerofoil or sail.</p> + +<p>The heavier-than-air flying-machine, +either engineless glider or power-driven +<span class="pagenum">[6]</span>craft, is the true aerial sailing-ship. The +prolate gasbag which is called an airship +resembles only one kind of ship, +a sinking ship, because it is totally immersed +in the fluid which supports it. +If a sea parallel to the airship is required, +that parallel may justly be said to be +the submarine, which is suspended in +the water as the airship is suspended in +the air.</p> + +<p>Before I deal with the future of the +aerial sailing-ship I must define three +aeronautical terms. No excuse is needed +for introducing these apparently elementary +definitions since aeronautical terms +are almost as well misunderstood by +aviators as by laymen. The three terms +are:</p> + +<p class="noindent"> +  Wing<br> +  Airscrew<br> +  Propeller +</p> + +<p>The definitions I advance are supported +by the Royal Aeronautical Society’s +<cite>Glossary of Aeronautical Terms</cite> and by +the British Engineering Standards +Association’s <cite>Glossary of Aeronautical +Terms</cite> although they are often departed +<span class="pagenum">[7]</span>from in official forms and in speech.</p> + +<p><em>Wing.</em> A few days ago I read in a +newspaper of a “single-winged airplane”. +Accustomed as I am to the aircraft which +appear between the drapers’ advertisements +in the daily newspapers, I was +startled at the notion of a “single-winged +airplane”. A bird has wings. A single-winged +bird would be a queer creature +and would be incapable of flying. +A “single-winged airplane” would be +equally queer and equally earth-bound.</p> + +<p>The reporter, in trying to hack out an +explanatory synonym for monoplane, +docked the aeroplane of one of its wings.</p> + +<p><em>Airscrew and Propeller.</em> An aeroplane +can have an airscrew yet no propeller. +Most aeroplanes, in fact, are without +propellers. In the interests of differentiation +it is worth endeavouring to confine +the word propeller to the thing that +propels or pushes the machine, to use +airscrew as a general term, and tractor +airscrew when a precise definition is +required for the thing that pulls the +machine. The colloquialism “prop’” +may perhaps be allowed to stand for +both tractor airscrew and propeller.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[8]</span></p> + +<p>In the following pages I make no attempt +to hit upon any sudden invention which +may revolutionize flight. I confine myself +to developing lines of progress which +have already given some proof of practicability. +For determining the general +trend of progress I rely upon a utilitarian +review of the aeronautical situation. I have +avoided leaping into the distant future. +Readers will be disappointed to learn +that things like inter-planetary voyaging +are not dealt with in this booklet.</p> + +<p>I am aware that scientists have demonstrated +that some of the things I do +mention are impossible. But scientists +have demonstrated that the world is +flat, that it is round, and that it is oblong. +In the future they will demonstrate that +it is rectangular. It was Mr W. N. Sullivan, +I think, who said that “To judge from +the history of science, the scientific +method is excellent as a means of obtaining +plausible conclusions which are always +wrong, but hardly as a means of reaching +the truth.” While a few generations +can still witness wide variations of opinion +among those who know, I incline to the +Pyrrhonic doctrine. It is impossible to +<span class="pagenum">[9]</span>know with certainty what is impossible, +and in attempting a forecast the best +that can be done is to take the trend of +contemporary thought and, with that, +to build a future upon the principles of +the present.</p> + +<p>I deal with the future of three kinds +of flying-machine, the civil, the service, +and the lighter-than-air or airship. The +type of machine I say will become popular +for short distance air-transport may seem +at first to be too unconventional. But +I think the whole trend of advanced +thought (slotted wings, wingflaps, anti-stall +gears and differential ailerons are +manifestations of it) is towards the result +I suggest.</p> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[10]</span></p> + + <h2 class="nobreak"> + I + </h2> +</div> + +<p>The future of the aerial sailing-ship or +heavier-than-air flying-machine will be +affected more by the attitude which the +world adopts towards it than by technical +achievement. In England the national +attitude towards machinery is moulded +by statesmen and financiers. Under the +guise of preserving the liberty of the +individual that attitude strangles the +life out of the machine; it may be +described in the words of the schoolboy +who said that <i lang="la">Habeas Corpus</i> was a +phrase used during the great plague of +London meaning ‘Bring out your dead’.</p> + +<p>The statesman has helped to mould +the national attitude towards the motor-car +through the medium of laws and the +manner of their enforcement by his servants +the police, and the Courts. The history +of the cause and effect of the national +<span class="pagenum">[11]</span>attitude towards the motor-car is being +repeated with the flying-machine, and +the parallel is close.</p> + +<p>Having the safety of the public for its +ostensible object, the Motor-Car Act +limits the speed of motor-vehicles to +twenty miles per hour, proclaims it +an offence to drive to the common danger +and to be drunk while in charge of a +motor-car.</p> + +<p>Of the last-mentioned provision I will +say nothing beyond mentioning that there +are motorists who are incapable of driving +safely except when they are drunk. Of +the other two, the 20 m.p.h. speed-limit +for many years has been generally +recognized as having no bearing on safety +or danger, whereas for many years +motorists have been condemning certain +manoeuvres on the road as constituting, +legally as well as in truth, driving to the +common danger.</p> + +<p>The English police, with the connivance +of magistrates and Home Secretaries, +have concentrated on enforcing the speed-limit +and have ignored the dangerous +manoeuvres.</p> + +<p>This pass has been brought about by +<span class="pagenum">[12]</span>the statesman, who has no direct interest +in motor-cars or other new-fangled +machines (except when there is a general +strike). As a consequence, the car built +as a car for speed and control is becoming +an object of general dislike. The continued +insistence that speed of itself is +dangerous and the pompous tyranny of +the police (who find motorists tamer and +more plastic than thieves) are gradually +engendering in the public fear of and +dislike for the machine-entity. Instead +the wheeled furniture-shop is gaining in +popularity. The doctrine of Safety First +is threatening initiative and killing the +spirit of adventure, while there is ignorance +of how to attain safety. Road-racing, +the only sure means of increasing car-safety, +is prohibited because it is not +safe. The result is the dismal, abysmal +mess described as the modern British +motor-car, which is chiefly remarkable for +not containing a single original idea.</p> + +<p>Now the result of statesmen moulding a +similar attitude towards the flying-machine +will be equally dismal. Yet they are +already exerting their influence in that +direction.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[13]</span></p> + +<p>Instead of employing policemen and +Courts to harry and hunt the herd of +aeronauts, designers, and constructors, +however, the statesman employs an army +of air-officials. In the world of aeronautics +these officials are all-mighty. The private +person has no control over them and no +reply to them. If he goes to Court against +them he will lose. If he appeals against +the decision of the Court he will lose +again. If he appeals to public opinion +he will lose for the third time. The +official tells the airman what he may not +do, warns the designer of the manner in +which he may not design, and informs +the constructor how he is forbidden to +construct.</p> + +<p>The result of this official attitude +towards the flying-machine is already +faintly visible.</p> + +<p>At the time I write Britain holds no +world’s air-records. For seven years +she has made no great flight. She has +three or four commercial air-lines against +Germany’s forty-three. Her fastest aircraft +is about 50 m.p.h., slower than the +fastest foreign aircraft. Her highest +climbing aircraft cannot attain within +<span class="pagenum">[14]</span>thousands of feet of the altitude attained +by foreign aircraft. Her longest range +aircraft can accomplish little more than +half the distance covered by foreign +aircraft. Her Air Force can put fewer +effective war-machines in the air than +any one of three other countries.</p> + +<p>One of our pilots has succeeded in +proving that, in an English aeroplane, +you can go from London to anywhere +else more slowly, and in more acute +discomfort, than by boat and train.</p> + +<p>In one thing only does England excel. +She spends more on aviation than any +other country in the world.</p> + +<p>I am familiar with the excuses for +England’s aeronautical failings. I know +that the House of Commons has been +told that there is no object in England +attempting to obtain world’s air-records. +I have heard the claim that the Royal +Air Force flies more than any other air +force, and I have heard the Air Ministry +refuse to supply any figures in support +of the claim. I know that the French are +said to obtain their high speeds and great +distances by cutting down the load-factor +of their machines. I have been +<span class="pagenum">[15]</span>told about the theory that we <em>could</em> gain +world’s records, run air-lines, win air-races, +and have an effective Air Force +but that we do not want to do so. I +am familiar with these excuses, and, +having mentioned some of them, I think +I can proceed to indicate a cure for the +failings in British aviation. For some +cure is the essential preliminary to any +future for the flying-machine in England.</p> + +<p>The cause of England’s aerial impotence +is chiefly official interference leading to a +wrong national attitude towards the +aeroplane.</p> + +<p>The cure is to give English aviation the +freedom of the air.</p> + +<p>If the official is given powers to make +vehicular transport safe, he will, as we +have seen in the motor-car analogy, +infallibly not make vehicular transport +safe and he will stop any mechanical +development in the vehicle itself. Freedom, +then, is the essential condition of +aeronautical development.</p> + +<p>I said at the beginning of this essay +that the financier, as well as the statesman, +helped to mould the public’s attitude +<span class="pagenum">[16]</span>towards the machine. I speak only of +the pure financier or business-man who +uses aeroplanes, motor-cars or tin cans +with equal indifference as money-making +tools; who has no direct interest in any +material creation; who repeats that +honesty is the best policy and hopes the +other man will believe it.</p> + +<p>All such business-men in England are +humble imitators of American business +men. In their advertisements, offices, +talk, and indigestion they endeavour as +closely as possible to copy the Americans. +They therefore believe that, if English +people are to produce cars or aeroplanes, +they must produce them in the American +way—that is cheaply and in mass. +Standardization has, in their view, taken +the place of craftsmanship and mass-production +of hard work.</p> + +<p>Already events have shown that the +English are incapable of imitating the +Americans well. The reason is that the +American mechanic regards his work as +an unpleasant necessity, to be got through +as quickly as possible and to be paid for +at as high a rate as possible in order that +he may have time and money for the real +<span class="pagenum">[17]</span>purpose of life—doing nothing. The +English mechanic, although the statesman +is trying to knock such foolishness out +of him, still expects to find something +satisfying in his work. He still seeks a +measure of contentment in the exercise +of skill.</p> + +<p>Mass-production fits in well with the +American workman’s ideas: it does not +fit in with the English workman’s ideas. +The English do not and will not produce +cheap motor-cars or cheap aeroplanes as +quickly and as well as the Americans.</p> + +<p>If English flying-machines are to be +made capable of competing with American +and others, the English, after being freed +from official interference, must leave +standardization and mass-production to +people who are temperamentally suited +to them, and instil into these flying-machines +some of the idiosyncrasy of their +race. Their flying-machines must be +creations expressive of the characters of +those who design and construct them.</p> + +<p>The only English cars having any +success in America (and elsewhere) are +those few in which perfection of craftsmanship +and idealism in design are notable. +<span class="pagenum">[18]</span>They are the kind of cars English designers +and mechanics are temperamentally able +to produce. The mass-produced cheap +English car or flying-machine will remain +a feeble imitation of the American. But +the idealistic creation, the machine-entity +of the English artist-scientist in car or +flying-machine has a place to itself in +the scheme of things. In its best form +it is unique.</p> + +<p>The financier’s influence in aviation is +not yet so noticeable as in motoring, but +it is becoming stronger. Should the +aeroplane pass entirely into his hands, it +will cease to progress as a flying-machine +and will start progressing as a bank-note +churn. With the future of such an +instrument I am unable to deal, since +I have no personal experience of either +churns or bank-notes.</p> + +<p>If it is to make headway as an individual +creation the flying-machine must receive +the freedom of the air. It must develop +its own individuality as a machine-entity. +Freedom of the air and the complementary +institution of mechanical craftsmanship +are the essential conditions for development +of the flying-machine. Without +<span class="pagenum">[19]</span>those conditions I have nothing to write +of its future. With those conditions the +flying-machine presents possibilities of +development in high-speed transport that +will warrant future generations describing +the present age as the static age.</p> + +<p>But I must insist that, for the forecast +I am now to make, I postulate the gagging +and binding or otherwise bottling-up of +the statesman and financier.</p> + +<p>Only then will this machine-entity, the +creation of the artist-scientist, grow. And +that the machine-entity, the car or +aeroplane as a real and living thing +exists will be accepted by all who have +spent much time in controlling and looking +after high-performance aeroplanes or +racing-cars. These machines, built with +a single purpose, are sensitive to the +treatment they receive as the stone is +sensitive to the sculptor’s chisel or +the violin-strings to the musician’s +bow.</p> + +<p>Turn for one moment from the standard +cars, the wheeled furniture-shops “replete +with every comfort including cigarette +lighter and flower vase” which make +hideous our streets to the other extreme +<span class="pagenum">[20]</span>and regard the finely-wrought, aesthetically +satisfying racing-car which is to be +seen in the American and Continental +road-races and occasionally at Brooklands. +I do not suggest that racing-cars should +be used for transport even in these “most +brisk and giddy paced times”; I merely +refer to the racing-car as indicative of a +certain attitude towards the machine. +The makers of flying-machines should be +free, if such is their desire, to aim at the +fineness, craftsmanship, and originality +in design exemplified in the racing-car.</p> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[21]</span></p> + + <h2 class="nobreak"> + II + </h2> +</div> + +<p>The civil flying-machine, when it is +examined in the light of contemporary +aeronautical research-work, seems rich in +possibilities.</p> + +<p>Apart from electrical repulsion, there +are five different ways of flying, of which +only two are at present in general use, +lighter-than-air flight and fixed-wing +heavier-than-air flight. I think that a +third method is about to be widely +adopted, and that this third method will, +in time, profoundly influence the whole +future of aeronautics.</p> + +<p>A comparison between the present +system of artificial flight and natural +flight will suggest what that third method +is.</p> + +<p>Let us go to Croydon, the airport of +London, and examine a typical three-engined +passenger-carrying aeroplane.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[22]</span></p> + +<p>The three engines are running, for the +machine is about to take off. The coffin-shaped +thing whose sides flap in the +wind from the airscrews is the fuselage. +The machine shows signs of malnutrition, +for its bones are prominent in the form +of wires and struts. As the engines are +run up, the tail shakes and sneezes and +coughs until it seems that the fuselage +will be ruptured. Now the machine +taxis over the aerodrome, its engines +open up with a roar, it labours over the +ground, and then, looking a little fatigued, +it rises into the air.</p> + +<p>It passes overhead making a noise like +a thunderstorm, shivering and quaking, +barging its way along with a clumsy +ineffectualness which gives it the appearance +of flying through treacle.</p> + +<p>When it is out of sight, go to Waterloo +Bridge and watch the gulls.</p> + +<p>A gull is a hopelessly uncommercial +flying machine. It does not pay, it has +no ground organization, it is not fitted +with wireless, no control-tower informs it +when it may land, no books are kept of +its mileage or hours flown, no managers, +assistant-managers, clerks, secretaries, +<span class="pagenum">[23]</span>typists, accountants, ministers, directors, +officials, or meteorologists concern themselves +in its safety. No offices, search-lights, +flood-lights, neon-lights, leader-cables, +or directional wireless stations are +set aside for its control and supervision. +No treatises are written about its future. +A gull is not “a commercial proposition”. +It is, however, a good machine for flying.</p> + +<p>Neither the superficial nor the fundamental +defects of the passenger-carrying +aeroplane are present in the gull. The +gull is a coherent, unified structure without +exposed bracing-wires, struts, or +engines. It gets off quickly, flies at a +great pace (for its power-loading), is +fairly silent and very manoeuvrable, can +defeat fog, rain, hail, snow, and gale, and +can alight anywhere.</p> + +<p>As a flying-machine it owes its basic +superiority over the aeroplane to a single, +ingenious trick: a trick which looks easy, +but which, for many years, the scientist +found it impossible to reproduce in +practical mechanics.</p> + +<p>When flying was first thought about +this trick engaged much attention. The +mechanical difficulties in reproducing it, +<span class="pagenum">[24]</span>however, refused to be conquered, and +about 1680, Borelli, having this trick in +mind, wrote: “The Icarian invention is +entirely mythical because impossible”, +a view which, according to Mr J. E. +Hodgson’s <cite>History of Aeronautics</cite>, was +supported by Leibnitz. Afterwards and +until just recently the trick has been +almost entirely neglected. I think it +probable that it will regain its old importance, +and that it will become the +pivot upon which the whole future of the +heavier-than-air land-going flying-machine +will turn.</p> + +<p>What is this trick which for centuries +baffled the mechanician, yet which the +gull finds so simple? What is the one +fundamental difference between the means +employed by the gull for flying and the +means employed by the aeroplane?—It is +the difference between the fixed wing and +the moving wing.</p> + +<p>The gull has the trick of being able to +move its wings relative to its body. The +gull is a moving-wing flying-machine. +The conventional aeroplane is a fixed-wing-flying-machine.</p> + +<p>Almost every important advantage +<span class="pagenum">[25]</span>which the gull (and any other bird) has +over the type of aeroplane which has so +far been most popular may be traced +to the gull’s ability to move its wings. +For that reason alone it can get off without +a long run, defeat fog and gale, and +alight anywhere.</p> + +<p>Since the time of the artificial “flying +pigeon” of Archytas in the 5th. cent. <span class="smcap">b.c.</span> +the manner of whose flight seems obscure, +attempts have been made to build +machines which imitate the gull by +flapping their wings. Several people, +including Bladud, the legendary flying +King of Britain, found out in an unpleasant +manner that the muscles were +not strong enough to actuate man-lifting +wings. And in the construction of +engine-driven ornithopters the mechanical +difficulties invariably proved insuperable. +The natural flapping wing has never +been exactly imitated by mechanical +means in a flying-machine, nor have the +leg and foot been exactly imitated by +mechanical means in a motor-car.</p> + +<p>The motor-mechanician, in using the +wheel in place of the leg and foot, imitated +the principle employed by nature for +<span class="pagenum">[26]</span>land-locomotion but not the means. Will the +aeroplane-mechanician imitate the principle +employed by nature for flight but +not the means?</p> + +<p>The aeroplane-mechanician has already +accomplished this feat in a rudimentary +form in the Cierva Autogiro, which is +commonly (and accurately) called the +windmill aircraft.</p> + +<p>The helicopter has never achieved much +success and, for the present purpose, it +may be classed with the ornithopter as +obsolete. The autogiro, therefore, is the +first practical moving-wing aircraft. It +accomplishes that which generation after +generation of mechanicians found it impossible +to accomplish. It has seized on +the bird-principle of flight and translated +it into practical mechanics.</p> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[27]</span></p> + + <h2 class="nobreak"> + III + </h2> +</div> + +<p>The existing autogiro, although it may +not resemble the more developed types +which will eventually appear, is the most +successful moving-wing flying-machine yet +produced. Señor de la Cierva’s work was +described by an aeronautical engineer as +being of secondary importance only to +that of the Wright brothers. That first +flush of enthusiasm may be over, but there +seems little doubt that future generations +will regard Señor de la Cierva as the +inventor of moving-wing flight. And +I believe that there will be a fierce battle, +more prolonged and more vigorous than +has ever been fought between two machines, +the battle between moving-wing flight +and fixed-wing flight. The struggle +between reciprocating engine and turbine, +broad gauge and narrow gauge, lighter-than-air +and heavier-than-air, water-cooling +and air-cooling will be as nothing +<span class="pagenum">[28]</span>compared with the imminent struggle +between fixed-wing and moving-wing.</p> + +<p>The autogiro obtains lift from a <em>free</em>, +four-bladed windmill. Each blade of the +windmill is a wing and is articulated at +the root so that its tip can rise and fall. +The autogiro is drawn forward by an +ordinary aero-engine and airscrew which +are entirely separated from the windmill. +As the machine is drawn through the +air the relative wind, blowing on the +blades or wings, rotates the windmill +and it lifts the machine. The wings rise +and fall, and this beating motion gives +the machine a measure of stability.</p> + +<p>To exert lift a wing must move through +the air.</p> + +<p>The moving-wing aircraft derives lift +from wings which can move through the +air even though the body of the machine +be stationary or nearly stationary. In +the fixed-wing aeroplane both body and +wings must move if the wings are to +exert lift.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[29]</span></p> + +<div class="chapter"> +<figure class="figcenter illowp52" style="max-width: 119.0625em;"> + <img class="w100" src="images/i_029.jpg" alt=""> + <figcaption> + <p style="text-align: justify;"> + Fig. 1.—Diagrammatic representation of moving-wing + and fixed-wing flight. The wings of + both machines have travelled equal distances + AA and BB but the body of the moving wing + machine has remained stationary relative to + the ground. + </p> + </figcaption> +</figure> +</div> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[30]</span></p> + +<p>The difference between moving-wing +and fixed-wing aircraft is so important +to this discussion that I shall venture to +describe it again in different words. +A fixed-wing aircraft is like a bird with +its wings paralysed or in splints. A moving-wing +aircraft is like a bird having the +full use of all its faculties. (Fig. 1).</p> + +<p>Perhaps the most important advantage +which the moving-wing aircraft has over +the fixed-wing aircraft is that it can +virtually land on one spot. The conventional +aeroplane must move forward +in still air if it is to keep up; it must +still move forward while landing, and +afterwards allow its impetus to be +dissipated during a run along the ground.</p> + +<p>In addition to this ability to land on +a spot, the moving wing aircraft is less +likely to become uncontrollable while it +is in the air. The fixed-wing aircraft +must become uncontrollable in the air +if its speed drops below a certain point. +This point was called by airmen “the +stalling speed”. It has needed the +mathematician to produce the phrase: +“control of stalled aeroplanes”. In +current English a stalled aeroplane is an +aeroplane which is uncontrollable, even +if the speed must drop to zero before this +condition arises. If any fixed stalling-<em>angle</em> +can be said to exist outside technical +<span class="pagenum">[31]</span>reports, it is the angle at which +the lift of the wings is so reduced that +the machine must fall to a nearly vertical +position before recovering.</p> + +<p>The moving-wing aircraft in the rudimentary +form we know it to-day could +stall, but it would need a major structural +failure or violent and prolonged misuse +of the controls to make it do so.</p> + +<p>And now one of the weapons which will +be used in the battle which I predict +between the two main types of heavier-than-air +flying machines will be recognized. +The weapon of the spot-landing.</p> + +<p>Taking advantage of its special characteristics, +the moving-wing flying-machine +within fifteen years will open hostilities +by carrying passengers into and from the +hearts of cities and by running safely +through fog thick enough to stop other +transport services. Up till then the +fixed-wing machine with its aerodromes +on the outskirts of cities will have held the +field almost unchallenged. But whereas the +fixed-wing aircraft has now had twenty-two +years development, the moving-wing +aircraft has had only about three years.</p> + +<p>At first, even when it has matured, +<span class="pagenum">[32]</span>people will be shy of the moving-wing +machine, and only gradually will it begin +to attract passengers used to the other type.</p> + +<p>Travellers will begin to realize that, +when they go by fixed-wing machines, +they waste so much time and suffer so +much discomfort in the terminal communications +that the advantages of the +air-passage are largely neutralized.</p> + +<p>At present the air-traveller going from +Paris to London spends one and a half +hours covering the few miles to and from +the aerodromes to the centres of the two +cities and only two to two and a half +hours covering the 225 miles of the air-journey. +Moreover, he changes vehicles +twice, at Croydon and at Le Bourget, +as he does by boat and train at Dover +and at Calais. The aircraft’s ability to +fly over land and sea alike, therefore, has +not given the traveller the advantage of a +through-journey. He must taxi from his +hôtel in Paris to the place where the +air-company’s car starts, change from car +to aeroplane at Le Bourget, change from +aeroplane to car at Croydon, and taxi +from the car’s stopping place to his +home. (Fig. 2).</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[33]</span></p> + +<div class="chapter"> +<figure class="figcenter illowp40" style="max-width: 102.25em;"> + <img class="w100" src="images/i_033.jpg" alt=""> + <figcaption> + <blockquote><p style="text-align: justify;"> + Fig. 2.—Diagrammatic representation of the + advantage in flexibility of an aircraft capable of + making spot landings and so of using small + aerodromes. Alone among vehicles it could + provide a through journey to the centres of cities. + </p></blockquote> + </figcaption> +</figure> +</div> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[34]</span></p> + +<p>The aeroplane dare not risk attempting +the journey in thick fog or heavy snow or +hail because, in order to support itself, +it must move forward through the air at +a minimum of say 60 miles per hour. +At this speed the pilot, even if aided by +a leader-cable, has difficulty in finding +the aerodrome in thick weather; as much +difficulty as a motor-car-driver unable +to go slower than 20 miles per hour would +have in crossing London in a dense fog.</p> + +<p>If he thinks he catches a glimpse of a +landmark, the pilot cannot stop or slow +down and look again to confirm his +impression; he must continue to travel +at 60 m.p.h. And if he fail to find the +aerodrome he must endeavour to put down +his machine—still travelling at 60 m.p.h.—on +an area of ground which he cannot +see clearly and which he does not know. +If a house, ditch, hedge, tree, chimney, +shed, road, telegraph wire, pole, or other +obstruction is in the way the result is a +serious accident.</p> + +<p>The disadvantages under which the +fixed-wing aircraft suffers when landing +and when flying during bad visibility are +inherent in the principle of flight it +<span class="pagenum">[35]</span>employs. The moving-wing machine will +therefore concentrate its attack at these +very points. Since it is able to fly slowly, +and virtually to hover, it can feel its way +through fairly thick fog. Even if the +pilot cannot find the aerodrome, comparatively +little danger attaches to a +forced landing on unknown ground, +because the descent can be made vertically +or almost vertically and there is almost +no run after touching the ground.</p> + +<p>Aerodromes on the roofs of buildings +have been foretold with tiresome persistence. +A Frenchman succeeded in landing +a fixed-wing aeroplane on a roof in +Paris. Even so I cannot foresee roof-aerodromes +for fixed-wing aircraft, which +is the purpose for which former prophets +have foreseen them; but I emphatically +can foresee roof-aerodromes for slow-landing, +moving-wing aircraft.</p> + +<p>Travellers going by future air-lines will +take a taxi from their homes to Charing +Cross, step into a moving-wing machine +on a roof-aerodrome, fly to Paris, land +on another roof-aerodrome near the Place +de l’Opéra, and take a taxi to their +hotel.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[36]</span></p> + +<p>I think it likely that, by the time it +reaches maturity, the full speed of the +moving-wing aircraft will be below that +of the fixed-wing aircraft. But it will +make up for this disadvantage by offering +travellers the advantages of eliminating +terminal communications and changes of +vehicle. Part of the time it loses between +Croydon and Le Bourget it will regain +between Croydon and Charing Cross and +between Le Bourget and the Place de +l’Opéra. Moreover, on days when, through +fog, the fixed-wing aircraft-service is +suspended, the moving-wing aircraft will +still operate.</p> + +<p>By these means the moving-wing aircraft +will become a formidable competitor +of the fixed-wing aircraft. How will the +fixed-wing aircraft reply to the attack?</p> + +<p>It will make a supreme effort to increase +its speed to such an extent that it will +offer to travellers a journey taking from +door to door only about two-thirds of +the time occupied by the other type. +To do this the time lost in terminal +communications by motor-car will, at first, +be partly recovered by extremely high +flying speeds. The 250 miles per hour +<span class="pagenum">[37]</span>air-express will make its appearance. +The wing-loading of these machines +will be high. Dr Rohrbach the German +designer, believes that great advantages +accrue through high wing-loadings, and +in lectures and papers he has described +at length the reasons for his +belief. In order to get these highly +loaded machines off quickly and to land +them within an aerodrome of reasonable +size, a form of catapult launching apparatus +and an arrester will be employed.</p> + +<p>Catapult-launching has been proved, +in England, America, Italy, and France, +to be practicable with fairly large aircraft. +There is no reason to suppose that its +development will not continue.</p> + +<p>An aircraft-arrester was described by +Mr G. H. Dowty in a paper read before +the Institution of Aeronautical Engineers +in October 1926. It consisted in a drum +having wound round it a length of cable. +The aeroplane, by some hook and line +device similar to that used by Army +co-operation machines in picking up +messages, will connect itself to the end of +the cable. The cable will rotate the drum +<span class="pagenum">[38]</span>against a brake, and the aeroplane will +be arrested. Mr Dowty calculates that +a machine travelling at 90 m.p.h. could +by this means, be brought to a standstill +in 100 yards without an excessive strain +being put on the machine’s structure.</p> + +<p>The chances of forced landings in these +highly loaded fixed-wing machines will +be reduced to a negligible quantity by +big reserves of power and by providing +that power through many engines.</p> + +<p>In spite of the acceleration of the +fixed-wing services made possible by the +use of these express-aeroplanes, the +popularity of the moving-wing services +will continue to grow. The public will +count time well lost against the discomfort +of changing twice and motoring long +distances through roads as inadequate for +the traffic of that day as the existing ones +are for the traffic of this. They will +continue to take taxis to the Charing +Cross roof-aerodrome when they want to +travel by air to Paris, York, Manchester, +Glasgow, or Dublin.</p> + +<p>The drifting of passengers to the +moving-wing services will spur the supporters +of the fixed-wing services to +<span class="pagenum">[39]</span>devise another reply. They will build +motor speedways from Croydon reaching +into the heart of London and from all +the other big aerodromes into the hearts +of the cities they serve. These speedways +will have no side-turnings or cross-roads. +They will be forbidden to +pedestrians, bicyclists, lorries, ’buses, and +similar vehicles. They will be hedged +in on either side like railway lines. The +flat-footed influence of policeman and +politician will be excluded and along these +tracks cars will carry passengers to and +from the aerodromes at 100 miles per +hour. Assisted by these tracks, the great +speed of the fixed-wing services will +temporarily prevail, and a fair supply of +passengers will be assured although the +moving-wing services will still flourish.</p> + +<p>The position at this stage of the battle +might be described as a deadlock. The +next stage will perhaps be the most +remarkable of all.</p> + +<p>It may have been noticed that, unlike +most prophets, I have been exceedingly +modest in naming the distances over +which these future services will operate. +While discussing the battle between fixed-wing +<span class="pagenum">[40]</span>and moving-wing, instead of speaking +of Empire services, Globe-circling airlines, +or non-stop hemispherical flying +expresses, I have spoken of trivial routes +like London-Paris and London-Glasgow. +I have not even mentioned London-Karachi, +London-Melbourne, or London-Montreal.</p> + +<p>My modesty was only temporarily +assumed. I am now about to throw it +off in order to describe what I believe +will be the most important development +of the flying machine. This development +will begin during the latter part of the +fixed-wing, <i>v.</i> moving-wing battle.</p> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[41]</span></p> + + <h2 class="nobreak"> + IV + </h2> +</div> + +<p>I have spoken, in describing the fixed-wing +versus moving-wing battle, only of +short air-lines, because I think the establishment +of the successful short line will +precede the establishment of the long.</p> + +<p>It is argued that the saving in time +effected by the flying-machine becomes +valuable only in long journeys, so that +no one would bother to go to an aerodrome +and take an aeroplane in order to save +half an hour or so, and that the train-service +in England is so good that the +aeroplane-service would be incapable of +competing with it successfully. And, +while the disadvantages of short air-services +are magnified, the disadvantages +of long air-services are forgotten or not +appreciated.</p> + +<p>At present a short journey of three or +four hours by aeroplane is all that the +<span class="pagenum">[42]</span>average passenger can stand in comfort. +There is no room for him to move about +much in the present cabins, and the +noise of the engines, wires, and airscrews +is fatiguing to anyone not used to it. +Moreover, the time-basis is not the only +basis on which the traveller compares the +merits of the means of travel at his disposal. +The ship provides its passengers +with social intercourse and a high degree +of comfort. A long journey by sea is +usually a pleasant, invigorating experience. +On a journey by air, on the other hand, +the passengers get no fresh air, they have +no opportunity for making friends, for +conversation, dancing, games, or any +other of the fascinating trivialities which +flavour life on board a passenger-steamer. +The traveller offered the use of a long +distance air-line, therefore, is invited +to choose between, perhaps, three days +discomfort and isolation in the cramped +cabin of an aeroplane and three weeks +social pleasure and invigorating laziness +on board ship.</p> + +<p>Now the disadvantages which attend +long-distance air-travel in modern type +machines are due almost entirely to the +<span class="pagenum">[43]</span>small size of passenger aircraft when +compared with ships. The aeroplane will +not be successful as a long-distance +vehicle until it can give its passengers +most of the pleasures they would get on +board ship. It will not be able to give +its passengers even a small fraction of +those pleasures until it is as large as or +nearly as large as the ship.</p> + +<p>The pleasures of long-distance travel +vary almost directly as the size of the +vehicle. Can the aeroplane ever be made +so large that it can offer its passengers +the space and freedom of even a small-sized +passenger-boat?</p> + +<p>I do not think the aeroplane can ever +become sufficiently big, but I do think +the seaplane or the flying-boat can and +will become sufficiently big to offer that +degree of space and freedom.</p> + +<p>I believe that aircraft will begin to +compete successfully with boat and train +in carrying the merchandize and passengers +of the world only after the coming of the +era of the hydro-aeroplane (I use this +word to include both seaplane and flying-boat).</p> + +<p>The longest flight ever made in one +<span class="pagenum">[44]</span>machine was made in a hydro-aeroplane. +The largest machines ever built are hydro-aeroplanes. +The heavier-than-air machines +carrying the greatest weight are hydro-aeroplanes. +I am confident that the era +of the hydro-aeroplane will come, and that, +until it comes, aircraft will not compete +successfully with boat and train.</p> + +<p>I have based my first conclusion, that +the moving-wing aeroplane will become +a powerful competitor of the fixed-wing +aeroplane for short-distance air-transport, +on flexibility. The moving-wing machine +can go from door to door, no matter if +the journey is partly over the sea and +partly over the land. I base my second +conclusion, that the hydro-aeroplane will +become the pre-eminent vehicle for long-distance +air-transport, on size. The +hydro-aeroplane can be built as large as +may be required.</p> + +<p>If people are to journey even for +one day in the same vehicle, they need +space and freedom of movement. They +need wide promenade decks, lounges, +restaurants, cabins, smoking-rooms. They +cannot be confined to a single basket +chair.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[45]</span></p> + +<p>For long-distance air-transport the +sardine-theory so popular with our London +transport controllers must be abandoned. +The sardine-theory must be recognized +for what it is, a system of getting more +money out of the passenger by increasing +his discomfort. The more you squeeze +the passenger, the more the money oozes +out of him.</p> + +<p>The aeroplane cannot, I think, become +very much larger than the largest machines +of to-day because the support of much +greater weights on the landing-wheels +becomes difficult. At present there are +machines in which each landing-wheel +must carry 6 tons. If the weight were +much increased, the three-point suspension +on wheels and tail-skid would become +impracticable. The provision of a caterpillar +landing-gear and of aerodromes +with prepared surfaces might be possible +and might assist matters if machines, say +eight or nine times the size of the present, +were contemplated. But, to obtain the +comfort required (and given by the ship) +on a long voyage, the machines would need +to be some fifty or a hundred times the +size of the largest existing types. When +<span class="pagenum">[46]</span>those sizes were reached, the problems +of supporting the weight on the ground +and of manoeuvring on the ground, +taking off, and landing would become +exceedingly difficult to solve.</p> + +<p>Yet these problems are comparatively +easy to solve in the large hydro-aeroplane. +A large hydro-aeroplane with a high +wing-loading could, if necessary, use the +open sea as its aerodrome. Since the +problem of the forced landing would +definitely have been overcome by the +power-unit arrangement, the large hydro-aeroplane +would fly over land or sea. +Its stations would be sea ports, lakes, or +wide rivers.</p> + +<p>The aeroplane both with moving and +fixed wing will certainly grow in size; +but nothing seems to me to indicate that +it will be able to keep pace with the growth +of the hydro-aeroplane. The growth of +the hydro-aeroplane is foreshadowed in +a French machine and a German machine +which have appeared recently. The +hundred-passenger hydro-aeroplane is a +proven possibility. I can see no insuperable +obstacle to the eventual arrival +of the 1,000-passenger or the +<span class="pagenum">[47]</span>2,000-passenger hydro-aeroplane. Moreover, the +fog-landing problem is easier to solve in +the sea-going than in the land-going +fixed-wing aircraft. Good automatic landing +devices are more easily designed for +hydro-aeroplanes than for aeroplanes.</p> + +<p>Mr O. E. Simmonds, of the design +staff of a firm of British flying-boat +constructors, said: “The largest successful +flying-boats yet built have weighed +about 30,000 lbs. I shall certainly feel +that progress has been inordinately slow +if we have not constructed a boat of +100,000 lbs. gross weight <em>by the end of +the next decade</em>.”</p> + +<p>The first real air-liner, carrying some +five or six hundred passengers, will +probably appear after or towards the +end of the battle between fixed and moving-wing +machines. And it will be a flying-boat. +The unsolved problems attending +high-altitude air-transport seem to be +so difficult that I am inclined to believe +that high altitude transport will not +become a regular method in this generation.</p> + +<p>The possibilities of machines capable +of travelling at immense speeds in the +rarefied air at a height of 15 miles or so +<span class="pagenum">[48]</span>from the ground are attractive. But, if +a forecast is to be based on research-work +actually accomplished at the time, it is +made, then high-altitude flying must be +excluded.</p> + +<p>Among the problems which high-altitude +flying involves and which seem to postpone +its arrival to the distant future +are: the infinitely variable pitch airscrew, +the light, positive, infinitely variable gear +(without ratchet final drive), the sealed +cabin with self-contained ventilating +system, the engine altitude supercharger, and +the variable camber-wing. Among these +the Leitner automatic infinitely variable +pitch airscrew is one of the most interesting +inventions ever made in airscrew +design, but it is at present in its earliest +stages. The Constantinesco torque-converter, +which is an automatic infinitely +variable gear, might be adaptable to +aircraft. The sealed cabin presents great +practical difficulties, as does the variable +camber-wing.</p> + +<p>From this brief parenthesis the difficulties +of high-altitude transport will be +apparent. It is almost certain to come, +but its day is likely to be distant, and +<span class="pagenum">[49]</span>for that reason I have concentrated on +possibilities less remote.</p> + +<p>Now that the long and short distance +air-liners have been dealt with, I will +give a brief sketch of how the traveller +will use these vehicles. If Mr X, who lives +at Hampstead, desires to go to Melbourne, +Australia, he will first pile his luggage onto +a taxi and drive to the terminus of some +moving-wing aircraft line. This terminus +will be close to the centre of London: +A highly developed moving-wing aircraft +will take him to the coast. The machine +will land on the quay beside which will +float a flying-boat express. This machine +will be a fixed-wing flying-boat of about +1,000 tons. It will be a monoplane, the +wings growing from the hull at a sharp +dihedral angle and then curving down until +they are horizontal.</p> + +<p>The engines will be particularly interesting. +Most designers, even now, are +endeavouring to eliminate reciprocating +motion in petrol-engines. The trend of +thought is towards substituting the sleeve-valve +for the poppet-valve and towards +increasing the number of cylinders. More +and more inventors “invent” +<span class="pagenum">[50]</span>gas-turbines. Their engines have had varying +degrees of failure, although a few, the +Jean Mély turbine among them, are +reported to have gained a measure of +success. One of these inventors will soon +be completely successful. The movement +towards the rotary gas-engine is too +vigorous and too general to remain for +ever unfruitful. The gas-turbine will be +the aero-engine of the future. It will be +cooled by an evaporative system.</p> + +<p>One pound of water carries only 20 +B.T.U., whereas 1 lb. of steam carries +966 B.T.U. Wing Commander Cave-Browne-Cave, +in a paper read before the +Royal Aeronautical Society, drew attention +to the advantages for aircraft of +evaporative engine cooling. He said: +“By far the lightest way of conveying +heat is as the latent heat of steam.” On +test a standard aero-engine gave the same +power and fuel-consumption with evaporative +as with water-cooling. The greatest +advantage will accrue in reduction of +resistance. Panels in the aircraft surface +will receive heat in the steam and thus +the drag caused by water-radiators even +of the wing or strut type, or air-cooled +<span class="pagenum">[51]</span>cylinders will be eliminated. The evaporative +cooling system will not freeze up at +the highest altitudes: it will probably +maintain the engine at a more even +working temperature than an air-cooling +system, and the steam will provide a +suitable means of heating the passenger +cabins and pilot’s cockpit and of cooking.</p> + +<p>The flying-boat to which Mr X is now +having his luggage transferred then, has +twelve evaporative-cooled gas-turbines +housed in the wings, six on the starboard +and six on the port side. Eight of them +will drive tractor airscrews and four will +drive propellers through torque-converters. +There may be a system of concentrating +the whole engine-power at three or four +airscrews.</p> + +<p>The entire machine, including the wing-coverings, +will be built of metal. +“I cannot conceive”, said M. Dewoitine, +the French designer, “that the ultimate +aeroplane can be in anything else but +metal, in the same way that metal ships +to-day completely replace the wooden +ships of days gone by.” The living +quarters in the hull would be arranged +on labour-saving lines. The passengers +<span class="pagenum">[52]</span>would have drawing-room, dining-saloon, +lounge, and promenade deck. The +promenade deck on a long-distance air-express +will be different from the promenade +deck on a liner. It will be enclosed +in the hull and will be lighted by a transparent +roof and sides.</p> + +<p>Mr X finds his cabin arranged in much +the same way as in a ship, and, having +settled his things, he goes up to the +lounge, where the other passengers are +congregating. A few minutes later, with +a faint hum, two of the tractor-airscrews +begin to revolve, and the flying-boat +moves slowly away from the quay. Two +more airscrews start revolving, and the +machine, having taxied out, turns into +wind. It pauses a moment as if it were +taking breath, then the twelve air-screws +spin faster and faster until they appear +as discs of light. The machine moves +forward heavily, a solid mass of metal, +with the passengers watching from the +windows of the promenade deck. It +lumbers through the water, but throws +up but little spray. Then it seems to +stretch itself, throw back its head, and to +rise bodily out of the water until it runs +<span class="pagenum">[53]</span>on the surface of—instead of in—the +water. Already it appears lighter and +less clumsy. Finally, after giving the +water two or three parting pats, it takes +to the air and, in spite of its great mass, +instantly becomes an agile, graceful flying-machine.</p> + +<p>The usual amusements, the usual eating, +drinking, reading, and talking will employ +the passengers’ time in the air. For the +daily round goes on in much the same +way ashore, afloat or aflight. The night +flying is exhilarating, although there is, of +course, almost no sense of speed. Though +the sea is rough, the machine, at 4,000 ft. +is as steady as a rock. As the first stopping +place rushes towards the machine, the +hum of the engines alters note +and the machine dips in a gentle glide. +The mouth of a river, with shipping on +it and two more flying-boat expresses +lying at a quay a short way up the river, +comes into view. The machine wheels +round and glides closer and closer to the +water. Four of the airscrews give a short +burst of speed, and then the hull rips the +surface of the water with a hiss.</p> + +<p>Soon afterwards Mr X has said good-bye +<span class="pagenum">[54]</span>to his voyage acquaintances who are +disembarking, and the machine is off +on the next stage.</p> + +<p>The success of the large, long-distance +flying-boat will mark the beginning of +the concentration of fixed-wing machines +on long-distance routes and the concentration +of moving-wing machines on short, +distance routes. The fixed-wing machine, +finding it has no rival in the large flying-boat +type and finding that it has a strong +rival in the comparatively small land-going +type (that rival being the moving-wing +machine) will gradually remove +itself from the short air-lines. The +position will then be that all short air-lines +are run by moving-wing land-going aircraft +while all long air-lines are run by +fixed-wing sea-going aircraft.</p> + +<p>The real air-liner, as distinct from the +commercial flying soap-box of to-day, +will be an immense sea-going air-vessel. +It will be a self-contained town +offering greater attractions to the pleasure-seeker +than any other kind of small town. +When that machine makes its appearance +the Air Age will have begun.</p> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[55]</span></p> + + <h2 class="nobreak"> + V + </h2> +</div> + +<p>Before I described the passenger-carrying +flying-machine towards which contemporary +research-work seems directed, +I postulated the freedom of the air for +that machine. I stipulated that the +statesman and the financier should be +gagged and bound. Now that I come +to private-flying and air-racing, however, +the imagination jibs at the notion of a +similar freedom of the air. If the statesman +were prevented from meddling with +the technical development of the passenger-carrying +flying-machine, he would most +likely turn with redoubled vigour to the +task of controlling, organizing, watching +over, regulating, and generally bleeding +the private, the record-breaking, and +the racing aircraft.</p> + +<p>I can, therefore, sketch the future of +those machines only as the statesman +will direct it.</p> + +<p>The small fixed-wing private +<span class="pagenum">[56]</span>flying-machine, especially in the amphibian +form, will gradually become more and +more popular and, as it grows more +popular, so the statesman will take more +notice of it. His first opportunity for +direct action will come when a few people +get killed in an accident involving a +private aircraft.</p> + +<p>Taking advantage of the Press outcry, +of the screams of the Safety First societies +and of the opportunity for personal +aggrandizement, Members of Parliament +will pass a Flying-Machine Act.</p> + +<p>Among the provisions of this Act will +be a 40-miles per hour minimum speed-limit. +No heavier-than-air craft will be +permitted to fly at a speed of less than +40 miles per hour. It is easy to follow +the workings of the official mind in +setting this speed-limit. A fixed-wing +aircraft crashes not because it goes too +fast but because it goes too slowly. +Therefore, the statesman will reason, if +it is illegal to go too slowly, there will be +no more accidents.</p> + +<p>Another provision will make it illegal +for anyone suffering from nicotine-poisoning +to be in charge of a flying-machine. +<span class="pagenum">[57]</span>(Prohibition will be established +in England by this time, so that no clause +about “drunk in charge of a flying-machine” +will be necessary.)</p> + +<p>Further regulations will make it +necessary for every private pilot to pass +a medical examination once a month as +a condition of his having a pilot’s licence. +Having passed this examination, he will +be required to wear, while in charge of +an aeroplane, two 8-inch metal discs, +with a number stamped upon them. One +disc will be worn on the left shoulder +and the other on the top of the flying-helmet.</p> + +<p>The aeroplane, in addition to its letter +markings on wings and fuselage, will be +required to exhibit three plaques bearing +identification-numbers. One will be on +the centre section, one on the undercarriage, +and one on the port side of the +fuselage. The aeroplane will also carry +metropolitan or county police markings +on four tablets of given size, besides +markings of the appropriate local council +on plates of certain specified dimensions, +and small circular pieces of paper +<span class="pagenum">[58]</span>contained in approved holders on the rear +port interplane-strut (or wing-tip in the +case of a monoplane), the rear starboard +interplane-strut (or wing-tip) the undercarriage +port forward-strut, the tail-fin, +the fuselage, and the top plane gravity-tank +(if any).</p> + +<p>In addition to the pilot’s logbook, +machine logbook, engine logbook, pilot’s +licence, and airworthiness certificate, there +will be a registration-book, travel-triptych, +flight-permit, landing-permit, and housing-pass.</p> + +<p>These items are, of course, extra to the +navigation-lights, wing-tip flares, cockpit-illuminants, +parachute-flares, fire-extinguishers, +silencers, life-saving parachutes, +and other obligatory equipment, +such as lifebelts, fire-proof bulkheads, +stall-indicators, warning-signals, and Very +lights.</p> + +<p>These regulations will provide the police +with the opportunity of displaying their +keen sense of duty. They will ignore the +old-fashioned and mundane murders, and +will say with Horace Walpole: “Do not +wonder that we do not entirely attend +<span class="pagenum">[59]</span>to the things of earth; fashion has +ascended to a higher element.”</p> + +<p>Conceive the vigour and elegance with +which they will uphold the 40 m.p.h. +minimum speed-limit. What their stopwatches +(for they will still use them) +and observation lacks in accuracy, they +will make up for by the free imagery and +sweeping poetic fancy of their evidence +in Court.</p> + +<p>The pilot who flies while suffering from +nicotine-poisoning will be the object of +universal opprobrium. His social doom +will be sealed when the witness says that +his breath <i>smelt of tobacco</i> and that he +must have been smoking the same morning. +The pilot’s statement that he only had +two cigarettes during the previous month +will be completely discountenanced.</p> + +<p>But the best chance for the police will +come when the private moving-wing +machine begins to make an appearance. +Then will dawn the true constabulary +millennium.</p> + +<p>The moving-wing machine, as it has +been shown, can almost hover and can +fly comfortably at five or ten miles per +<span class="pagenum">[60]</span>hour. One day a moving-wing machine +will pass through a police-trap while its +pilot is admiring the countryside or +inquiring from his companion where they +will stop for lunch.</p> + +<p>The pilot will appear in Court charged +with flying at less than 40 miles per hour, +and there will be a sensation when the +detectives disclose that defendant’s speed, +which he did not deny, was 8 miles per +hour over a measured furlong.</p> + +<p>The magistrate will say that, although +he had been on that bench for thirty-five +years, never in his whole experience, +never from the moment that he had +accepted those duties, never since the +time when he devoted himself to the +administration of justice, <em>never</em> had he +heard of such a flagrant disregard for the +safety of the public. Here was a flying-machine, +over a populous area, travelling +at 8 miles per hour when everyone knew +that a flying-machine gained its lift by +virtue of its speed through the air, and +that if it travelled at less than forty miles +per hour it was liable at any moment +<span class="pagenum">[61]</span>to fall upon the heads of the people +below.</p> + +<p>The pilot might endeavour to explain +the technical points in the case. If he +did so, his fine would be greater than if +he merely pleaded guilty and said no +more.</p> + +<p>That case will be the signal for a wholesale +persecution of moving-wing aircraft-owners. +The Home Secretary will issue +warnings, magistrates will wish that they +could send pilots to prison—in fact there +will be the usual process of departmental +browbeating which we know +so well. The theory that the private +flyer will not be summoned for +slow flying because there will be moving-wing +passenger aircraft also capable of +slow flying, does not bear investigation. +There are now lorries, motor-buses, charabancs, +steam-wagons, and trams which +persistently exceed the 20-miles per hour +speed limit. They are not prosecuted, +nor will the passenger aircraft of the +future be prosecuted.</p> + +<p>Having given some idea of the delightful +future which lies before the private +<span class="pagenum">[62]</span>flyer, I will add a few remarks upon air-racing.</p> + +<p>After motor-road racing, air-racing is +the finest sport yet invented. I give +it ten more years life in England.</p> + +<p>Before the War air-racing at Hendon +was highly successful in that it attracted +many entries and large crowds of +spectators. Since the War air-racing +has been unsuccessful. There are signs, +however, that there will soon be a revival +of it. Larger and larger crowds will +collect to watch it. Special machines will +be constructed, the number of entries will +increase, continental firms will take +part.</p> + +<p>Then the statesman will step in and play +his part, as he always must when anything +becomes popular.</p> + +<p>Air-racing is and will remain dangerous. +Statesmen and newspapers will discover +this and talk about it. Now I am informed +upon the best authority that in +England no one is allowed to face danger +of any kind, whether he wants to or not. +The State arranges that all dangers, +physical and moral, are kept away from +the individual. He may not do, see, hear +<span class="pagenum">[63]</span>smell, or taste anything calculated to +arouse him from the suety state of mind +so highly esteemed by the politician. +The Englishman is nursed from birth to +death by an army of officials. He is +permitted to risk his life only in +war.</p> + +<p>Air-racing, since it is dangerous, will +gradually be stamped out of existence. +Air-racing improves the aircraft as a +machine-entity; it would have a good +effect upon the private flyer’s machine +and upon the war-machine. When air-racing +has been stopped, therefore, a +decline in the quality of the private flying-machine +and the service-machine will +result.</p> + +<p>Air-racing (with which I include record-breaking) +is as important to pure aeronautical +development as anything else. +The history of the Schneider Cup seaplane-race +is some indication of the technical +advance racing achieves. In 1913 at +Monaco the Schnieder Cup, was won by +France at 45.4 m.p.h. In 1914 (England) +at 86.4 m.p.h., in 1919 (Italy) at 124.9 +m.p.h. (This race was declared void). In +1920 (Italy) at 107.2 m.p.h. In 1921 +<span class="pagenum">[64]</span>(Italy) at 111.4 m.p.h., in 1922 (England) +at 146.1 m.p.h., in 1923 (America) 177.4 +m.p.h., in 1925 (America) 234.4 m.p.h. +and in 1926 (Italy) at 246.5 m.p.h. +(Fig. 3).</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[65]</span></p> + +<div class="chapter"> +<figure class="figcenter illowp30" style="max-width: 26.2em;"> + <img class="w100" src="images/i_065.jpg" alt=""> + <figcaption> + <p><i>Fig. 3 Schneider Cup</i></p> + </figcaption> +</figure> +</div> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[66]</span></p> + +<p>The Schneider Cup figures show that +the much boasted rapidity of progress in +the performance of high-speed aircraft +during the War is a myth. During the +War, progress was almost completely +stopped. Even if the Italian win of 1919 +at 124.9 m.p.h. be accepted (and the race +was declared void because Janello was +not observed at one of the turning-points) +the rate of progress compares unfavourably +with the rates before and after the War. +If, on the other hand, the rate be judged +by the accepted wins of 1914 and 1920 +then the top speed of seaplanes rose only +20.8 m.p.h. in 6 years against 139.3 m.p.h. +in 6 years after the War.</p> + +<p>Up to 1926 there has been little sign of +a falling off in the rate of progress in +high-speed seaplane-design, and a rough +estimate, puts the probable speed of the +winner in 1928 at 290 m.p.h. and in 1930 +at 320 m.p.h.</p> + +<p>Record-breaking has a similar effect +to racing upon technical development. In +1919 Sir John Alcock and Sir A. Whitten +Brown flew the Atlantic non-stop for the +first time in a heavier-than-air machine. +They covered 1,890 miles in about 16 +<span class="pagenum">[67]</span>hours. In 1926 M. Dieudonné Coste and +Capitaine Rignot covered 3,400 miles +non-stop in 32 hours.</p> + +<p>Whatever country takes up and encourages +private flying, air-racing and +record-breaking will play a big part in +the future of the flying-machine.</p> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[68]</span></p> + + <h2 class="nobreak"> + VI + </h2> +</div> + +<p>I see no reason to depart from the +forecast of the future military flying-machine +which I make in my <cite>Strategy +and Tactics of Air Fighting</cite>.</p> + +<p>Since the fixed-wing machine will +probably retain a slightly superior performance +over the moving-wing machine +(although it is fair to Señor de la Cierva to +add that some of the best mathematicians +find on theoretical calculation that the +moving-wing aircraft should be equal in +all-round performance to the fixed-wing +type), it is likely that, excepting a proportion +of army co-operation machines +and a small proportion of night-bombers +the moving-wing machine will not in the +future be used in large numbers for war +purposes.</p> + +<p>Before constructing the machine of the +future, let us go to the R.A.F. annual +Display, and refusing to be fascinated +by the intricate shape of the breeches +worn by officers and men, let us examine +<span class="pagenum">[69]</span>an experimental single-seater fighter of +the present. When in the air the machine +is remarkable only for the undercarriage-struts +and wheels which hang below the +fuselage. They look like a labourer’s +hands in the drawing-room, they are +sturdy but, in the air, they do not seem +to know what to do with themselves, +they are in unaccustomed surroundings.</p> + +<p>Let this machine be compared with the +gull. I use the gull for these comparisons +because it is common and easily observed +and so provides an accessible model. +Indeed, it was the gull which instructed +Mr A. V. Roe and helped him to become, +on June 8th, 1908, the first man to fly +over British soil. The experimental single-seater +fighter at the R.A.F. Display has +very few characteristics of which any bird +need be ashamed. One of these characteristics, +however, is undoubtedly its undercarriage. +The gull folds up its undercarriage +when it is in the air; it lets it +down only when it is about to land.</p> + +<p>But now compare the experimental +machine with one of the standard machines +in an R.A.F. squadron. The standard +service-machine looks as if it has got into +<span class="pagenum">[70]</span>the hands of an accessory fiend, one of +those who believe that the part is greater +than the whole. It is so cluttered up +with odds and ends, so cut about, modified, +added to, and altered that it resembles +no other flying-machine, animal or +artificial. It is a sort of winged Air +Ministry, a receptacle full of interesting +information about everything but the +air.</p> + +<p>Since this mania for encumbering service-machines +is only a superficial failing, it +is possible, after remarking it, to go +direct to the service-machine of the +future.</p> + +<p>There is first a new type to be noted, the +aerial artillery-machine. This will be a +large multi-engined monoplane carrying +a single medium-sized gun and a few +rounds of ammunition. It will be able +to direct close range gunfire from the air +at important ground-objectives. The +advantage of the aerial big gun over the +bomb will be in accuracy, the advantage +of the bomb over the aerial big gun will +be in the great weight of projectile made +possible by the absence of any heavy +launching-apparatus like a gun. The +<span class="pagenum">[71]</span>height of the aeroplane acts on the bomb +as the explosive charge on the projectile. +But at long ranges the bomb, with the +newest sights and under the best conditions, +is inaccurate, and at short ranges +its velocity is low. The aerial big gun +permits ground-objectives and ships to be +attacked at short range with projectiles +travelling at a high velocity.</p> + +<p>The success of low-flying attacks by +machine-guns in the late War was a +sufficient demonstration of the potentialities +of the low-altitude gun-attack from +the air. Experiments were made long +ago in mounting small guns in aeroplanes +and in arranging for the absorption of the +recoil. Against other aircraft the aerial +big gun would not be used. In aerial +fighting weight of projectile is of less +importance than rate of fire.</p> + +<p>The night-bombing machine of the +future will be an immense flying-boat. +It is likely that this type will also be used +for day bombing. If so, it will be heavily +armed with machine-guns and will not +go out without a strong screen and +escort of fighting machines.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[72]</span></p> + +<p>The fighting aeroplane will be particularly +interesting. It will be a small +monoplane without external bracing-wires +or struts and the undercarriage will be +retractable. It will carry one man, and +will be an all-metal machine mounting a +gas-turbine of some 1,000 h.p.</p> + +<p>Performance-figures must be the wildest +guess work, because the closest examination +of the trend of research gives but +small information on the probable rates +of progress in speed and climb. Mr A. +V. Roe has frequently stated his belief +that the future flying-machine will attain +1,000 miles per hour. I will, therefore, +give my fighter of this generation 400 miles +per hour, 800 miles per hour in the dive, +a climb to 20,000 feet in 4 minutes, and +a service-ceiling (the height at which +the rate of climb falls below 100 feet per +minute) of 60,000 feet.</p> + +<p>In order that the fighter may operate +at high altitudes, and in order that it +may be able to change height suddenly +by diving or climbing steeply, the pilot +will be housed in a pressure-cockpit, +from which he will look through a streamline +conning-tower made in some transparent +<span class="pagenum">[73]</span>material. Unless he were enclosed +in some such pressure-chamber or pressure-suit, +the pilot would be unable to withstand +the cold and the reduced pressure of +extreme altitudes, and the sudden changes +in temperature and pressure, when the +machine was climbing or diving. Pressure-suits +are now being experimented with +in France and probably elsewhere.</p> + +<p>Oxygen would be supplied to the +pressure-chamber and an emergency +oxygen-apparatus would provide against +the chamber being pierced by a bullet. +Some form of dessicating apparatus would +be essential to prevent the transparent +conning-tower from fogging up. The +fewest accessories would be carried by +these fighters of the future.</p> + +<p>In general military aircraft will be +more specialized than they are to-day, +there will be no many-purpose machines. +Instead, the number of specialist machines +will steadily increase. In addition to the +aerial big guns, there will be flying-tanks +or lightly armoured low-flying machines +for attacks on ground-targets. These +will be developed from the “Salamander”, +“Vampire”, and other armoured aircraft +<span class="pagenum">[74]</span>introduced during the late War.</p> + +<p>Armour for fighting and bombing-aircraft +will not be employed for many +years. The gunners on the large flying-boat +bombers, however, will be provided +with small shields.</p> + +<p>Perhaps a general idea of the future +of the flying-machine in war may best +be given by quoting a newspaper report +of a day air-attack on London in the next +war.</p> + +<p>I cut the headlines and start with Our +Special Correspondent, who, with the +printer’s assistance, has, if I may be +permitted to say so, trodden on it through +all four gears:</p> + +<blockquote> +<p style="margin-top: 1.0em;">“The greatest air-raid in history was +launched on London yesterday evening +by a formation estimated at between +six and seven hundred aeroplanes.</p> + +<p>“For nearly two hours the earth shook +to the thunder of the guns, while far up +in the blue vault of Heaven there was +the flash of wheeling wings, as the heroic +pilots of the Royal Air Force plunged +again and again to the attack.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p>“Never before has the heart of +<span class="pagenum">[75]</span>the Empire been the objective of so +powerful and so determined an offensive, +never before have the British air-forces +so covered themselves with glory.</p> +</blockquote> + +<p>“Owing to the vigorous defence which +met the raiders as they neared London, +casualties are low. Official figures have +not yet been issued, but it is thought that +fewer than 1,000 people were killed while +only some 7,000 were wounded.</p> + +<p class="noindent center">“FIRST WARNING.</p> + +<p>“The raiders were first reported by +the ‘concrete ears’ or wireless disc and +super-sensitive microphone sentries which +encircle the coast. A large formation +(there was much doubt as to the number +of machines) was said to be approaching +Southampton, and with the exception of +three emergency squadrons, every R.A.F. +fighting-aeroplane rushed to the attack.</p> + +<p>“As our machines, sweeping through +the freezing blue of the great altitudes, +<span class="pagenum">[76]</span>approached the raiders, the raiders turned +and made off at full speed. Our machines +bent on reaching the enemy, tore after +them.</p> + +<p>“It was at this moment that ominous +news came through. A second hostile +formation, far larger than the first, had +been detected approaching the East coast +south of Harwich.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p>“Nearly the whole of the defending +airforce was far away: London’s bosom +was bared to the attack.</p> +</blockquote> + +<p>“The new formation—first given as +400 machines but later corrected to +600—was in four great layers and flying +at 170 miles per hour.</p> + +<p>“The three emergency R.A.F. squadrons, +numbering 54 machines of an old +type with five or six experimental machines +from Martlesham Heath and Farnborough, +went up at once and hurled themselves +at the vast enemy formation.</p> + +<p class="noindent center">“THREE TO ONE ODDS.</p> + +<p>“The second layer of the hostile formation, +which consisted of about 150 long-distance +<span class="pagenum">[77]</span>fighters, engaged them. A furious +battle ensued, while the remainder of the +hostile fleet, aerial big guns, flying-boat +bombers, and, at an extreme altitude, +a further batch of long-distance fighters, +continued on their way towards London.</p> + +<p>“The old R.A.F. machines were literally +butchered by the whip-lashes of lead which +cracked and curled from the small-calibre +stream-fire enemy guns. One of +our machines had both its wings cut off +and fell to the ground with such force +that the airscrew-boss was buried 18 feet +in the earth.</p> + +<p>“Meanwhile wireless messages had +reached the R.A.F. formation, which had +been drawn off by the feint attack on +Southampton. <i>They had turned and were +tearing to the rescue at 350 miles per hour.</i></p> + +<p>“The two big formations were in sight +of each other when the enemy was +about 20 miles south west of Chelmsford. +At this time there was no active +opposition to the invaders in the air. +Anti-aircraft batteries, however, were +blackening the sky with shells, and had +succeeded in bringing down two enemy +machines.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[78]</span></p> + +<p>“There seemed now no hope that +London would escape the full force of +the attack. Already two ten-ton +wireless-controlled flying-bombs had +struck the city. Even so there was little +panic. The gas-mask distribution had +worked well, and no one was unprovided. +The usual shelters were made full use of, +but many people, against the orders of +the police, remained in the streets +anxiously looking skywards and listening +to the almost continuous tear and roar +of the guns.</p> + +<p class="noindent center">“ANXIOUS MOMENTS.</p> + +<p>“For some reason the news that the +first hostile formation had retired had +not come through on the wireless. And, +since no one knew that far the greater +part of the R.A.F. defending forces had +gone in pursuit of that formation or that +the emergency squadrons had been cut to +pieces, a good deal of uneasiness prevailed +among the watchers.</p> + +<p>“Where are the R.A.F. fighters? was +<span class="pagenum">[79]</span>the question uppermost in everyone’s +mind.</p> + +<p>“As the noise of the guns grew louder +and seemed to vibrate and echo among the +houses, considerable alarm was displayed. +There were one or two ugly scenes, and +some women and children were trampled +to death in raid shelters at Hoxton and +Liverpool Street.</p> + +<p>“A quarter of an hour before dusk the +two lower layers of the hostile formation +were sighted by some people who had +been foolish enough to take up positions +on the roof of the <cite>Daily Post</cite> offices in +Fleet Street. Only the trained eyes of +the anti-aircraft spotters aided by the +new visual detection instruments could +distinguish the upper layers.</p> + +<p>“Still there was no sign of our aeroplanes. +The stories of those irresponsible +alarmists who, in books and articles, have +prophesied as far back as 1927 that +London would be wiped out by aerial +attack, seemed likely to prove too true. +Excitement among the watchers gave +way to a certain grimness. Then came a +change in the situation.</p> + +<p>“‘What’s that?’</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[80]</span></p> + +<p class="noindent center">“THE BATTLE JOINED.</p> + +<p>“Someone was pointing immediately +overhead. Nothing could at first be +distinguished in the blue sky; then +someone else waved excitedly.</p> + +<p>“‘Yes, I caught a glimpse.’</p> + +<p>“Just then the light of the setting +sun glinted momentarily on some infinitesimal +speck like a minute silver fish, rushing +through the air at a great height. No one +dared to express the hopes which they +felt.</p> + +<p>“A moment later what looked at first +like a small red rose sprang into being +high up over the enemy, high over the +smoke-blackened sky where the anti-aircraft +shells were bursting. Then it +fell, like a flaming bomb. There was +fighting going on up there, out of sight, +in the upper air.</p> + +<p>“Still the lower hostile layers came +on through the roar and shock of the +anti-aircraft fire. They were already over +the outskirts of London. Something else +fell from above twisting horribly. The +white of parachutes drifting fantastically +<span class="pagenum">[81]</span>could be observed through high-powered +glasses.</p> + +<p>“Quite suddenly the continuous thunder +of the anti-aircraft fire ceased. It was +succeeded by an uncanny calm, and then +by a high-pitched metallic scream which +grew in an ear-piercing crescendo. <i>The +R.A.F. aerial destroyers were engaging +the lower enemy layers.</i></p> + +<p>“The R.A.F. arrows of the upper air +plunged into the very heart of the raiders, +streaming fire and lead. They wheeled +and turned among them with a swift, +purposeful agility.</p> + +<p class="noindent center">“RAIN OF BOMBS.</p> + +<p>“The hostile formation began to split +up, and simultaneously the enemy commander +gave by wireless the order to +bomb. On the outskirts of London huge +factories and houses were suddenly transformed +into pillars of white dust. The +shriek and thump of the falling bombs +was heard clearly in Central London.</p> + +<p>“‘It was as if the ground were being +torn up under your feet’, said a postman +eyewitness. ‘The people in the shelters +<span class="pagenum">[82]</span>came out and began to run. They didn’t +stop to think; they just ran like wild +beasts, trampling on each other, and +hitting out at anyone who got in the way, +whether man, woman or child.</p> + +<p>“‘The rain of bombs was so continuous +that for as far as you could see earth and +buildings were spouting up in the air +with human limbs mixed up in them. +The sound of the bombs falling was what +knocked people’s nerves up as much as +anything.</p> + +<p>“‘The gas-bombs didn’t seem so bad, +but the incendiary bombs were a nasty +sight, at one time it looked as if +the whole air had caught fire.’</p> + +<p>“According to official information, +damage was small. Only the aerial +artillery-machines attained an objective +of military importance. They completely +destroyed the F.E. aircraft factory at +Finsbury Park.</p> + +<p>“The raiders had timed their attack +so as to escape in the dark, and, although +the new night detection flood-lights worked +well, there is no doubt that the hostile +casualties were so few because our +fighters were hampered by the darkness.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[83]</span></p> + +<p>“According to figures supplied by the +Air Department of the War Ministry, +37 hostile machines were brought down +while only eighteen of our own aerial +destroyers were lost. The three emergency +R.A.F. squadrons which first attacked +lost 39 machines and had several more +severely damaged.</p> + +<p>“The raid is regarded by experts as +a decisive victory for the British +Air-arm and a complete and convincing +justification of the policy of the Air-staff. +It is pointed out that the raiders were +prevented from reaching their objective, +and that, apart from the old-type R.A.F. +machines, our casualties are smaller than +those of the enemy.”</p> +</blockquote> + +<p>In another part of the same paper was +this insignificant paragraph.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p>“A late Central News message, delayed +owing to the disorganization caused by +yesterday’s air-raid, states that the +hostile formation which made a feint +attack on Southampton and was driven +off by our machines, later returned to the +same place and bombed it continuously +<span class="pagenum">[84]</span>for half an hour, causing many casualties +and much material damage.”</p> +</blockquote> + +<p>In the stop-press news was this:</p> + +<blockquote> +<p>“One a.m. Large hostile formation +of aircraft reported approaching mouth +of Thames.”</p> +</blockquote> + +<p>In the above skit I have not dwelt on +the terrible side of air-warfare in the +future. Yet I feel that that is the side +upon which all who are competent to +do so, and who wish to prevent future +wars should dwell. Several novels have +given pictures of future aerial warfare, +but I have not seen its inevitable +horrors realistically portrayed. Unless +those horrors are portrayed frequently +and in their true and shocking form, +people will soon forget the unpleasant side +of air-war and think only of its romantic +and glorious side.</p> + +<p>In the interests of humanity it would +be a good thing if some able novelist or +film-producer would give us a statement +of the crude horrors of air-war. If such +a one arises, he will have the +satisfaction of having helped the cause +of peace and of having his work banned +by the Censor.</p> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[85]</span></p> + + <h2 class="nobreak"> + VII + </h2> +</div> + +<p>So far I have spoken only of heavier-than-air +flying-machines. There is also +the airship to which many people pin +their faith for future long-distance air-transport.</p> + +<p>The airship was neglected in England +after the War because experience seemed +to show that it was incapable of playing +a useful part in warfare. Its revival was +chiefly due to Commander Burney, who +continually drew attention to his conviction +that the airship could be made +a safe and successful long-distance air-transport +vehicle.</p> + +<p>Most airship advocates believe in the +bigger the better theory. If the gas-capacity +of an airship is doubled, the +disposable lift may be quadrupled, and the +size will be only about 1.3 times that of +the smaller vessel. For this reason the +two English airships now being built are +each of 5,000,000 cu. ft. gas-capacity. +<span class="pagenum">[86]</span>One is being built by the Government, +the other for the Government to Commander +Burney’s general design.</p> + +<p>These airships have provided matter +for many speeches on Empire air-ship-routes +of the future. At the recent +Imperial Conference airships were spoken +of as the right vessels for long-distance +air-lines. These forecasts are based on +slender foundations.</p> + +<p>Since 1914 only one successful commercial +airship-service has been run. The +‘Bodensee’ in 1919 made 103 trips between +Berlin and Friedrichshafen and carried 2450 +passengers. Those 103 trips seem to be +an insecure basis upon which to build +calculations about voyages halfway round +the world. The new airships may go +from England to Egypt in 2½ days, and +from England to Melbourne in 12½ days, +but nothing has occurred in airship-development +to strengthen the probability +of such events. The two new airships +are nothing more than a gigantic +experiment.</p> + +<p>I must make some unpleasant remarks +about airships, but, before doing so, it +is necessary to record admiration of the +<span class="pagenum">[87]</span>English airship policy. I do not agree +with the man with a genius for mixed +metaphor who described the airship scheme +as the “thin edge of the white elephant”. +On the contrary, in initiating this experiment +the Government has shown +imagination and daring. Airship enthusiasts +are to have an opportunity +of testing their theories. If the +experiment is a hopeless failure +no money and no time will have been +wasted, for the knowledge gained will be +of value in directing future aeronautical +development.</p> + +<p>But to the question: Will the airship +become the long-distance air vehicle of +the future? I answer No.</p> + +<p>I base my view on an examination of +airship history and on the opinions of +airship pilots. Upon that basis the +probable future of the 5,000,000 cu. ft. +vessels will be this:</p> + +<p>The first one to be completed will make +a first flight, and come to its 200 ft. +mooring mast successfully. For several +months it will cruise periodically, and +minor structural modifications will be +<span class="pagenum">[88]</span>made. It will fly to India and back. +Paying passengers will be accepted, and +after considerable delay the first long-distance +passenger-flight will be flown. +Some two or three years after the airship +comes from its shed, it will meet with +disaster.</p> + +<p>More airships will be designed and +built, larger still than those now building. +There will be another disaster.</p> + +<p>By then the heavier-than-air machine +in the moving-wing and fixed-wing forms, +will have proved itself capable of doing +all that airships can do and doing it more +safely, more quickly, more regularly, and +more cheaply. The airship will gradually +disappear, and its place will be taken by +the heavier-than-air craft, as the balloon +is gradually disappearing and its place +being taken by the airship.</p> + +<p>There is only one major difference +between balloon and airship, a difference +in the amount of control exercised by +the airman. The same difference exists +between airship and aeroplane. The +aeroplane is the more controllable. It +can rise and descend with less preliminary +<span class="pagenum">[89]</span>juggling; it can turn more quickly; and +it can land more quickly.</p> + +<p>In support of my pessimistic forecast +I append a brief outline of air-ship-history.</p> + +<p>Lighter-than-air man-carrying flight +started in 1783 when Pilâtre de Rozier, +the world’s first aeronaut, went up in a +Montgolfier balloon. In the same year a +hydrogen filled balloon flew from Paris +to Nesle. In the following year an oblong +balloon propelled by parasols as oars was +made by the Duc de Chartres.</p> + +<p>In 1852 a small airship propelled by +a steam engine was made. In 1882 +Tissandier’s airship worked by an electric +motor was flown, and in 1884 the airship +‘La France’ was flown. Count Zeppelin +built his first airship in 1900. Santos +Dumont constructed an airship, and, in +1902, flew it round the Eiffel Tower.</p> + +<p>It will be seen that the airship has passed +through a longer period of development +than the heavier-than-air flying-machine, +even if the claim that Clement Ader +flew in 1897 be accepted. Lighter-than-air +flight, indeed, dates back to +1783.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[90]</span></p> + +<p>The result of that longer development +period is not such as to warrant too +sanguine a belief in the airship’s future. +The accidents to non-rigids and rigids +have been many in proportion to the +number of vessels actually flown.</p> + +<p>The last type of non-rigid built in +England was the North Sea type, one of +which was destroyed by lightning soon +after the War. Nine people were killed. +Among the rigids, R.34, which made the +double Atlantic crossing, was damaged +beyond repair in 1921. R.33 has had +many adventures, among them being +her break-away from the mooring-mast +in 1925. This was hailed as a proof of +the safety of airships. R.33 is still alive, +though she is treated with the respect +due to her age.</p> + +<p>R.36, the first British airship to be +adapted for commercial purposes, is still +in existence though not in service. R.38 +broke up over the Humber in 1921 and +forty-four people were killed.</p> + +<p>The U.S.A. have the ‘Los Angeles’, +which is the name now given to the +German designed and built ZR.3. The +<span class="pagenum">[91]</span>‘Shenandoah’ broke away from her mast +in 1924, and was destroyed in 1926. +According to survivors’ stories, the +‘Shenandoah’ was wrecked by the same +kind of vertical air-currents that wrecked +an early Zeppelin in 1913. In all, nine +American airships have perished violently +since the War.</p> + +<p>The French ‘Dixmude’ was the ex-Zeppelin +L.72. She created a world’s +record in 1923, and then disappeared off +Sicily with all hands (54 people).</p> + +<p>Considering how few large airships have +been built, and how short a time they are, +on the average, kept in service, the +proportion of serious accidents is high. +In war that proportion is prohibitively +high.</p> + +<p>The Zeppelin works have turned out +more rigid airships than any factory in +the world. The fate of every Zeppelin +airship completed since 1915 was recently +given in a French technical paper. I do +not vouch for the figures, but they come +from a fairly reliable source. Out of +76 airships no fewer than 37 (or nearly +50%) were put out of service before they +had completed one year’s work. Only +<span class="pagenum">[92]</span>four airships were kept in service for +more than three years. This is the record +of the firm which knows more about airships +than any other firm in the world. +Yet airships have had longer to develop +than aeroplanes.</p> + +<p>How can an airship be said to be +superior to a fixed-wing aeroplane? It +can hover, it has a longer range, it provides +a higher degree of comfort for its +passengers. How is it inferior to a +fixed-wing aeroplane? It is slower, it +requires more elaborate ground organization, +it is less controllable. Since the +moving-wing aircraft is, as yet, far from +fully developed, I leave it out of +discussion.</p> + +<p>The argument that an aeroplane is +always using a part of its power for +lifting is counterbalanced by the argument +that an airship is always using a part of +its power for driving its bulk against the +wind. An airship cannot stand still and +use no power. There is always some wind +at a height, and the airship must either +use power or drift. An airship with all +its engines stopped is as helpless as an +aeroplane with all its engines stopped. +<span class="pagenum">[93]</span>The aeroplane, while gliding, still retains +a large measure of controllability, and +the pilot can select its landing ground +within 50 yards. The airship has less +controllability when its engines are stopped. +Its commander would be lucky if he could +select its landing ground within 50 +miles.</p> + +<p>It is right that the airship should have +every chance to develop. If it prove +successful, so much the better. I do not +think it will prove successful. If it is +made to work, it will be at more than ten +times the cost in money and lives, at +which heavier-than-air machines have +been made to work.</p> + +<p>Sometimes it seems regrettable that +even a small part of the sums spent on +developing airships cannot be spent on +developing the passenger-carrying aeroplane.</p> + +<p>I will give airships the last word by +recalling that Sir George Cayley in 1816 +expressed his belief that airships would +eventually prove the most efficient and +safest means of air travel, and by +quoting Dr Eckener:</p> + +<p>“A modern airship”, said Dr Eckener, +<span class="pagenum">[94]</span>“is at least as capable in heavy weather +as a modern aeroplane. A storm will +never have more effect than delaying or +speeding a trip, and it can become directly +dangerous only inasmuch as it may delay +the voyage beyond the reach of fuel +supply.”</p> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[95]</span></p> + + <h2 class="nobreak"> + VIII + </h2> +</div> + +<p>“<i lang="fr">Sans nul doute, l’avenir est a la bête +de métal.</i>” People regret the age of the +machine: I cannot do so. A well-made +machine, in which are struck into life +the dreams of its designer, is a vital, +individual creation.</p> + +<p>A flying machine designed by a man +with a sense of flight is more faithful +and far more intelligent than a horse or +a dog. Thoughts are reflected in it, the +careful skill of the executant is expressed +in its every component. It is sensitive +and quick to feel roughness or gentleness +in the hand of him who controls it. Its +moods are without number, and it can +surprise, please, and irritate. It is +susceptible to being coaxed, and it enjoys +obeying one whose orders are firmly +given. But it can be treacherous to the +weak or to one who does not try to understand +it or who is persistently cruel to it.</p> + +<p>At present there is a tendency to knock +the life out of the machine, to subdue +<span class="pagenum">[96]</span>it to the level of tooth paste and tin cans. +If that tendency makes headway, the +flying-machine of the future must lose +its individuality, and the age of the +machine may eventually prove to be a +dark age.</p> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + + <div class="container"> + <div class="box"> + +<p class="noindent center" style="margin-bottom: 1.0em;"> + <i>SIXTY VOLUMES ARE NOW PUBLISHED</i> +</p> +<p class="noindent center bold" style="font-size: 130%;"> + TO-DAY  AND<br> + TO-MORROW +</p> +<p class="noindent center" style="margin-top: 1.2em; font-size: 90%;"><i>Each, pott 8vo, boards, 2/6 net</i> +</p> + +<p class="drop-cap" style="margin-top: 2.0em;">THIS series of books, by some of the +most distinguished English thinkers, +scientists, philosophers, doctors, critics, +and artists, was at once recognized +as a noteworthy event. Written from +various points of view, one book frequently +opposing the argument of another, they +provide the reader with a stimulating +survey of the most modern thought in +many departments of life. Several +volumes are devoted to the future trend +of Civilization, conceived as a whole; +while others deal with particular provinces. +It is interesting to see in these +neat little volumes, issued at a low price, +the revival of a form of literature, the +Pamphlet, which has been in disuse for +many years.</p> + +<p class="noindent center" style="font-size: 90%;"><i>Published by</i></p> +<p class="noindent center" style="font-size: 90%;">KEGAN PAUL, TRENCH, TRUBNER & CO., LTD.</p> +<p class="noindent center" style="font-size: 90%;">Broadway House: 68–74 Carter Lane, London, E.C.4</p> + </div> + </div> +</div> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[2]</span></p> + +<p class ="noindent center"><i>FROM THE REVIEWS</i></p> + +<div class="small"> + +<p class="hanging1"><cite>Times Literary Supplement</cite>: “An entertaining +series of vivacious and stimulating studies of +modern tendencies.”</p> + +<p class="hanging1"><cite>Spectator</cite>: “Scintillating monographs ... that +very lively and courageous series.”</p> + +<p class="hanging1"><cite>Observer</cite>: “There seems no reason why the +brilliant To-day and To-morrow Series should +come to an end for a century of to-morrows. +At first it seemed impossible for the publishers +to keep up the sport through a dozen volumes, +but the series already runs to more than two +score. A remarkable series....”</p> + +<p class="hanging1"><cite>Daily Telegraph</cite>: “This admirable series of +essays, provocative and brilliant.”</p> + +<p class="hanging1"><cite>Nation</cite>: “We are able to peer into the future +by means of that brilliant series [which] will +constitute a precious document upon the +present time.”—<i>T. S. Eliot.</i></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><cite>Manchester Dispatch</cite>: “The more one reads of +these pamphlets, the more avid becomes the +appetite. We hope the list is endless.”</p> + +<p class="hanging1"><cite>Irish Statesman</cite>: “Full of lively controversy.”</p> + +<p class="hanging1"><cite>Daily Herald</cite>: “This series has given us many +monographs of brilliance and discernment.... +The stylistic excellencies of this provocative +series.”</p> + +<p class="hanging1"><cite>Field</cite>: “We have long desired to express the +deep admiration felt by every thinking +scholar and worker at the present day for this +series. We must pay tribute to the high +standard of thought and expression they +maintain. As small gift-books, austerely yet +prettily produced, they remain unequalled +of their kind. We can give but the briefest +suggestions of their value to the student, +the politician, and the voter....”</p> + +<p class="hanging1"><cite>New York World</cite>: “Holds the palm in the +speculative and interpretative thought of the +age.”</p> +</div> +</div> + +<hr class="chap x-ebookmaker-drop"> +<div class="chapter"> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[3]</span></p> + +<p class="noindent center"><i>VOLUMES READY</i></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Daedalus</span>, or Science and the Future. +By <span class="smcap">J. B. S. Haldane</span>, Reader in +Biochemistry, University of Cambridge. +<i>Seventh impression.</i></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“A fascinating and daring little book.”—<cite>Westminster +Gazette.</cite> “The essay is brilliant, +sparkling with wit and bristling with +challenges.”—<cite>British Medical Journal.</cite> +“Predicts the most startling changes.”—<cite>Morning +Post.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Callinicus</span>, a Defence of Chemical Warfare. +By <span class="smcap">J. B. S. Haldane</span>. <i>Second +impression.</i></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Mr Haldane’s brilliant study.”—<cite>Times +Leading Article.</cite> “A book to be read by every +intelligent adult.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite> “This brilliant +little monograph.”—<cite>Daily News.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Icarus</span>, or the Future of Science. By +<span class="smcap">Bertrand Russell</span>, <span class="smcap">F.R.S.</span> <i>Fourth +impression.</i></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Utter pessimism.”—<cite>Observer.</cite> “Mr +Russell refuses to believe that the progress +of Science must be a boon to mankind.”—<cite>Morning +Post.</cite> “A stimulating book, that +leaves one not at all discouraged.”—<cite>Daily +Herald.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">What I Believe.</span> By <span class="smcap">Bertrand Russell</span>, +<span class="smcap">F.R.S.</span> <i>Third impression.</i></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“One of the most brilliant and thought-stimulating +little books I have read—a better +book even than <cite>Icarus</cite>.”—<cite>Nation.</cite> “Simply +and brilliantly written.”—<cite>Nature.</cite> “In +stabbing sentences he punctures the bubble of +cruelty, envy, narrowness, and ill-will which +those in authority call their morals.”—<cite>New +Leader.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[4]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Tantalus</span>, or the Future of Man. By +<span class="smcap">F. C. S. Schiller</span>, <span class="smcap">D.Sc.</span>, Fellow of +Corpus Christi College, Oxford. <i>Second +impression.</i></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“They are all (<cite>Daedalus</cite>, <cite>Icarus</cite>, and +<cite>Tantalus</cite>) brilliantly clever, and they supplement +or correct one another.”—<i>Dean Inge</i>, +in <cite>Morning Post</cite>. “Immensely valuable and +infinitely readable.”—<cite>Daily News.</cite> “The +book of the week.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Cassandra</span>, or the Future of the British +Empire. By <span class="smcap">F. C. S. Schiller</span>, <span class="smcap">D.Sc.</span></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“We commend it to the complacent of all +parties.”—<cite>Saturday Review.</cite> “The book is +small, but very, very weighty; brilliantly +written, it ought to be read by all shades of +politicians and students of politics.”—<cite>Yorkshire +Post.</cite> “Yet another addition to that +bright constellation of pamphlets.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Quo Vadimus?</span> Glimpses of the Future. +By <span class="smcap">E. E. Fournier d’Albe</span>, <span class="smcap">D.Sc.</span> +<i>Second Impression.</i></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“A wonderful vision of the future. A book +that will be talked about.”—<cite>Daily Graphic.</cite> +“A remarkable contribution to a remarkable +series.”—<cite>Manchester Dispatch.</cite> “Interesting +and singularly plausible.”—<cite>Daily Telegraph.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Thrasymachus</span>, the Future of Morals. +By <span class="smcap">C. E. M. Joad</span>, author of “The +Babbitt Warren,” etc. <i>Second impression.</i></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“His provocative book.”—<cite>Graphic.</cite> +“Written in a style of deliberate brilliance.”—<cite>Times +Literary Supplement.</cite> “As outspoken +and unequivocal a contribution as could well +be imagined. Even those readers who dissent +will be forced to recognize the admirable +clarity with which he states his case. A book +that will startle.”—<cite>Daily Chronicle.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[5]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Lysistrata</span>, or Woman’s Future and +Future Woman. By <span class="smcap">Anthony M. +Ludovici</span>, author of “A Defence of +Aristocracy,” etc. <i>Second Impression.</i></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“A stimulating book. Volumes would be +needed to deal, in the fullness his work provokes, +with all the problems raised.”—<cite>Sunday +Times.</cite> “Pro-feminine but anti-feministic.”—<cite>Scotsman.</cite> +“Full of brilliant common-sense.”—<cite>Observer.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Hypatia</span>, or Woman and Knowledge. By +<span class="smcap">Mrs Bertrand Russell</span>. With a +frontispiece. <i>Third impression.</i></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">An answer to <cite>Lysistrata</cite>. “A passionate +vindication of the rights of woman.”—<cite>Manchester +Guardian.</cite> “Says a number of +things that sensible women have been wanting +publicly said for a long time.”—<cite>Daily Herald.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Hephaestus</span>, the Soul of the Machine. +By <span class="smcap">E. E. Fournier d’Albe</span>, <span class="smcap">D.Sc.</span></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“A worthy contribution to this interesting +series. A delightful and thought-provoking +essay.”—<cite>Birmingham Post.</cite> “There is a +special pleasure in meeting with a book like +<cite>Hephaestus</cite>. The author has the merit of really +understanding what he is talking about.”—<cite>Engineering.</cite> +“An exceedingly clever +defence of machinery.”—<cite>Architects’ Journal.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">The Passing of the Phantoms</span>: a Study +of Evolutionary Psychology and Morals. +By <span class="smcap">C. J. Patten</span>, Professor of Anatomy, +Sheffield University. With 4 Plates.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Readers of <cite>Daedalus</cite>, <cite>Icarus</cite> and <cite>Tantalus</cite>, +will be grateful for an excellent presentation +of yet another point of view.”—<cite>Yorkshire +Post.</cite> “This bright and bracing little book.”—<cite>Literary Guide.</cite> +“Interesting and original.”—<cite>Medical +Times.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[6]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">The Mongol in our Midst</span>: a Study of +Man and his Three Faces. By <span class="smcap">F. G. +Crookshank</span>, <span class="smcap">M.D.</span>, <span class="smcap">F.R.C.P.</span> With 28 +Plates. <i>Second Edition, revised.</i></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“A brilliant piece of speculative induction.”—<cite>Saturday +Review.</cite> “An extremely interesting +and suggestive book, which will reward +careful reading.”—<cite>Sunday Times.</cite> “The +pictures carry fearful conviction.”—<cite>Daily +Herald.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">The Conquest of Cancer.</span> By <span class="smcap">H. W. S. +Wright</span>, <span class="smcap">M.S.</span>, <span class="smcap">F.R.C.S.</span> Introduction +by <span class="smcap">F. G. Crookshank</span>, <span class="smcap">M.D.</span></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Eminently suitable for general reading. +The problem is fairly and lucidly presented. +One merit of Mr Wright’s plan is that he tells +people what, in his judgment, they can best +do, <i>here and now</i>.”—From the <i>Introduction</i>.</p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Pygmalion</span>, or the Doctor of the Future. +By <span class="smcap">R. McNair Wilson</span>, <span class="smcap">M.B.</span></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Dr Wilson has added a brilliant essay +to this series.”—<cite>Times Literary Supplement.</cite> +“This is a very little book, but there is much +wisdom in it.”—<cite>Evening Standard.</cite> “No +doctor worth his salt would venture to say that +Dr Wilson was wrong.”—<cite>Daily Herald.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Prometheus</span>, or Biology and the Advancement +of Man. By <span class="smcap">H. S. Jennings</span>, +Professor of Zoology, Johns Hopkins +University. <i>Second Impression.</i></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“This volume is one of the most remarkable +that has yet appeared in this series. Certainly +the information it contains will be new to most +educated laymen. It is essentially a discussion +of ... heredity and environment, and it +clearly establishes the fact that the current +use of these terms has no scientific +justification.”—<cite>Times Literary Supplement.</cite> +“An exceedingly brilliant book.”—<cite>New Leader.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[7]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Narcissus</span>: an Anatomy of Clothes. By +<span class="smcap">Gerald Heard</span>. With 19 illustrations.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“A most suggestive book.”—<cite>Nation.</cite> +“Irresistible. Reading it is like a switchback +journey. Starting from prehistoric times we +rocket down the ages.”—<cite>Daily News.</cite> +“Interesting, provocative, and entertaining.”—<cite>Queen.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Thamyris</span>, or Is There a Future for +Poetry? By <span class="smcap">R. C. Trevelyan</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Learned, sensible, and very well-written.”—<i>Affable +Hawk</i>, in <cite>New Statesman</cite>. “Very +suggestive.”—<i>J. C. Squire</i>, in <cite>Observer</cite>. +“A very charming piece of work, I agree +with all, or at any rate, almost all its conclusions.”—<i>J. +St Loe Strachey</i>, in <cite>Spectator</cite>.</p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Proteus</span>, or the Future of Intelligence. +By <span class="smcap">Vernon Lee</span>, author of “Satan the +Waster,” etc.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“We should like to follow the author’s +suggestions as to the effect of intelligence on +the future of Ethics, Aesthetics, and Manners. +Her book is profoundly stimulating and should +be read by everyone.”—<cite>Outlook.</cite> “A concise, +suggestive piece of work.”—<cite>Saturday Review.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Timotheus</span>, the Future of the Theatre. +By <span class="smcap">Bonamy Dobrée</span>, author of “Restoration +Drama,” etc.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“A witty, mischievous little book, to be +read with delight.”—<cite>Times Literary Supplement.</cite> +“This is a delightfully witty book.”—<cite>Scotsman.</cite> +“In a subtly satirical vein he +visualizes various kinds of theatres in 200 years’ +time. His gay little book makes delightful +reading.”—<cite>Nation.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[8]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Paris</span>, or the Future of War. By Captain +<span class="smcap">B. H. Liddell Hart</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“A companion volume to <cite>Callinicus</cite>. +A gem of close thinking and deduction.”—<cite>Observer.</cite> +“A noteworthy contribution to +a problem of concern to every citizen in this +country.”—<cite>Daily Chronicle.</cite> “There is some +lively thinking about the future of war in +Paris, just added to this set of live-wire +pamphlets on big subjects.”—<cite>Manchester +Guardian.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Wireless Possibilities.</span> By Professor +<span class="smcap">A. M. Low.</span> With 4 diagrams.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“As might be expected from an inventor +who is always so fresh, he has many interesting +things to say.”—<cite>Evening Standard.</cite> +“The mantle of Blake has fallen upon the +physicists. To them we look for visions, and +we find them in this book.”—<cite>New Statesman.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Perseus</span>: of Dragons. By <span class="smcap">H. F. Scott +Stokes</span>. With 2 illustrations.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“A diverting little book, chock-full of ideas, +Mr Stokes’ dragon-lore is both quaint and +various.”—<cite>Morning Post.</cite> “Very amusingly +written, and a mine of curious knowledge for +which the discerning reader will find many +uses.”—<cite>Glasgow Herald.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Lycurgus</span>, or the Future of Law. By +<span class="smcap">E. S. P. Haynes</span>, author of “Concerning +Solicitors,” etc.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“An interesting and concisely written book.”—<cite>Yorkshire +Post.</cite> “He roundly declares that +English criminal law is a blend of barbaric +violence, medieval prejudices and modern +fallacies.... A humane and conscientious +investigation.”—<cite>T.P.’s Weekly.</cite> “A thoughtful +book—deserves careful reading.”—<cite>Law +Times.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[9]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Euterpe</span>, or the Future of Art. By +<span class="smcap">Lionel R. McColvin</span>, author of “The +Theory of Book-Selection.”</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Discusses briefly, but very suggestively, +the problem of the future of art in relation to +the public.”—<cite>Saturday Review.</cite> “Another +indictment of machinery as a soul-destroyer ... +Mr McColvin has the courage to suggest +solutions.”—<cite>Westminster Gazette.</cite> “This is +altogether a much-needed book.”—<cite>New +Leader.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Pegasus</span>, or Problems of Transport. +By Colonel <span class="smcap">J. F. C. Fuller</span>, author of +“The Reformation of War,” etc. With +8 Plates.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“The foremost military prophet of the day +propounds a solution for industrial and +unemployment problems. It is a bold essay ... +and calls for the attention of all concerned +with imperial problems.”—<cite>Daily +Telegraph.</cite> “Practical, timely, very interesting +and very important.”—<i>J. St Loe +Strachey</i>, in <cite>Spectator</cite>.</p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Atlantis</span>, or America and the Future. +By Colonel <span class="smcap">J. F. C. Fuller</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Candid and caustic.”—<cite>Observer.</cite> “Many +hard things have been said about America, +but few quite so bitter and caustic as these.”—<cite>Daily +Sketch.</cite> “He can conjure up possibilities +of a new Atlantis.”—<cite>Clarion.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Midas</span>, or the United States and the +Future. By <span class="smcap">C. H. Bretherton</span>, author +of “The Real Ireland,” etc.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">A companion volume to <cite>Atlantis</cite>. “Full of +astute observations and acute reflections ... +this wise and witty pamphlet, a provocation +to the thought that is creative.”—<cite>Morning +Post.</cite> “A punch in every paragraph. One +could hardly ask for more ‘meat.’”—<cite>Spectator.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[10]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Nuntius</span>, or Advertising and its Future. +By <span class="smcap">Gilbert Russell</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Expresses the philosophy of advertising +concisely and well.”—<cite>Observer.</cite> “It is doubtful +if a more straightforward exposition of +the part advertising plays in our public and +private life has been written.”—<cite>Manchester +Guardian.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Birth Control and the State</span>: a Plea +and a Forecast. By <span class="smcap">C. P. Blacker</span>, +M.C., <span class="smcap">M.A.</span>, <span class="smcap">M.R.C.S.</span>, <span class="smcap">L.R.C.P.</span></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“A very careful summary.”—<cite>Times Literary +Supplement.</cite> “A temperate and scholarly +survey of the arguments for and against the +encouragement of the practice of birth control.”—<cite>Lancet.</cite> +“He writes lucidly, moderately, +and from wide knowledge; his book undoubtedly +gives a better understanding of the +subject than any other brief account we know. +It also suggests a policy.”—<cite>Saturday Review.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Ouroboros</span>, or the Mechanical Extension +of Mankind. By <span class="smcap">Garet Garrett</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“This brilliant and provoking little book.”—<cite>Observer.</cite> +“A significant and thoughtful +essay, calculated in parts to make our flesh +creep.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite> “A brilliant writer, Mr +Garrett is a remarkable man. He explains +something of the enormous change the machine +has made in life.”—<cite>Daily Express.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Artifex</span>, or the Future of Craftsmanship. +By <span class="smcap">John Gloag</span>, author of “Time, +Taste, and Furniture.”</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“An able and interesting summary of the +history of craftsmanship in the past, a direct +criticism of the present, and at the end his +hopes for the future. Mr Gloag’s real contribution +to the future of craftsmanship is +his discussion of the uses of machinery.”—<cite>Times +Literary Supplement.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[11]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Plato’s American Republic.</span> By <span class="smcap">J. +Douglas Woodruff</span>. <i>Fourth impression.</i></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Uses the form of the Socratic dialogue +with devastating success. A gently malicious +wit sparkles in every page.”—<cite>Sunday Times.</cite> +“Having deliberately set himself an almost +impossible task, has succeeded beyond belief.”—<cite>Saturday +Review.</cite> “Quite the liveliest +even of this spirited series.”—<cite>Observer.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Orpheus</span>, or the Music of the Future. By +<span class="smcap">W. J. Turner</span>, author of “Music and +Life.” <i>Second impression.</i></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“A book on music that we can read not +merely once, but twice or thrice. Mr Turner +has given us some of the finest thinking upon +Beethoven that I have ever met with.”—<i>Ernest +Newman</i> in <cite>Sunday Times</cite>. “A +brilliant essay in contemporary philosophy.”—<cite>Outlook.</cite> +“The fruit of real knowledge and +understanding.”—<cite>New Statesman.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Terpander</span>, or Music and the Future. By +<span class="smcap">E. J. Dent</span>, author of “Mozart’s Operas.”</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“In <cite>Orpheus</cite> Mr Turner made a brilliant +voyage in search of first principles. Mr Dent’s +book is a skilful review of the development of +music. It is the most succinct and stimulating +essay on music I have found....”—<cite>Musical +News.</cite> “Remarkably able and stimulating.”—<cite>Times +Literary Supplement.</cite> “There is hardly +another critic alive who could sum up contemporary +tendencies so neatly.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Sibylla</span>, or the Revival of Prophecy. By +<span class="smcap">C. A. Mace</span>, University of St. Andrew’s.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“An entertaining and instructive pamphlet.”—<cite>Morning +Post.</cite> “Places a nightmare before +us very ably and wittily.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite> +“Passages in it are excellent satire, but on +the whole Mr Mace’s speculations may be +taken as a trustworthy guide ... to modern +scientific thought.”—<cite>Birmingham Post.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[12]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Lucullus</span>, or the Food of the Future. By +<span class="smcap">Olga Hartley</span> and <span class="smcap">Mrs C. F. Leyel</span>, +authors of “The Gentle Art of Cookery.”</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“This is a clever and witty little volume +in an entertaining series, and it makes enchanting +reading.”—<cite>Times Literary Supplement.</cite> +“Opens with a brilliant picture of modern +man, living in a vacuum-cleaned, steam-heated, +credit-furnished suburban mansion +‘with a wolf in the basement’—the wolf of +hunger. This banquet of epigrams.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Procrustes</span>, or the Future of English +Education. By <span class="smcap">M. Alderton Pink</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Undoubtedly he makes out a very good +case.”—<cite>Daily Herald.</cite> “This interesting +addition to the series.”—<cite>Times Educational +Supplement.</cite> “Intends to be challenging and +succeeds in being so. All fit readers will find +it stimulating.”—<cite>Northern Echo.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">The Future of Futurism.</span> By <span class="smcap">John +Rodker</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Mr Rodker is up-to-the-minute, and he +has accomplished a considerable feat in writing +on such a vague subject, 92 extremely interesting +pages.”—<i>T. S. Eliot</i>, in <cite>Nation</cite>. “There +are a good many things in this book which +are of interest.”—<cite>Times Literary Supplement.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Pomona</span>, or the Future of English. By +<span class="smcap">Basil de Sélincourt</span>, author of “The +English Secret”, etc.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“The future of English is discussed fully +and with fascinating interest.”—<cite>Morning +Post.</cite> “Full of wise thoughts and happy +words.”—<cite>Times Literary Supplement.</cite> “His +later pages must stir the blood of any man +who loves his country and her poetry.”—<i>J. C. +Squire</i>, in <cite>Observer</cite>. “His finely-conceived +essay.”—<cite>Manchester Guardian.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[13]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Balbus</span>, or the Future of Architecture. +By <span class="smcap">Christian Barman</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“A really brilliant addition to this already +distinguished series. The reading of <cite>Balbus</cite> +will give much data for intelligent prophecy, +and incidentally, an hour or so of excellent +entertainment.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite> “Most readable +and reasonable. We can recommend it +warmly.”—<cite>New Statesman.</cite> “This intriguing +little book.”—<cite>Connoisseur.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Apella</span>, or the Future of the Jews. By +<span class="smcap">A Quarterly Reviewer</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Cogent, because of brevity and a magnificent +prose style, this book wins our quiet +praise. It is a fine pamphlet, adding to the +value of the series, and should not be missed.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite> +“A notable addition to this +excellent series. His arguments are a provocation +to fruitful thinking.”—<cite>Morning Post.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">The Dance of Çiva</span>, or Life’s Unity and +Rhythm. By <span class="smcap">Collum</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“It has substance and thought in it. The +author is very much alive and responsive to +the movements of to-day.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite> “A +very interesting account of the work of Sir +Jagadis Bose.”—<cite>Oxford Magazine.</cite> “Has +caught the spirit of the Eastern conception of +world movements.”—<cite>Calcutta Statesman.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Lars Porsena</span>, or the Future of Swearing +and Improper Language. By <span class="smcap">Robert +Graves</span>. <i>Third impression.</i></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Goes uncommonly well, and deserves +to.”—<cite>Observer.</cite> “Not for squeamish readers.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite> +“No more amusingly unexpected +contribution has been made to this series. +A deliciously ironical affair.”—<cite>Bystander.</cite> +“His highly entertaining essay is as full as +the current standard of printers and police +will allow.”—<cite>New Statesman.</cite> “Humour and +style are beyond criticism.”—<cite>Irish Statesman.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[14]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Socrates</span>, or the Emancipation of Mankind. +By <span class="smcap">H. F. Carlill</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Devotes a specially lively section to the +herd instinct.”—<cite>Times.</cite> “Clearly, and with +a balance that is almost Aristotelian, he +reveals what modern psychology is going to +accomplish.”—<cite>New Statesman.</cite> “One of the +most brilliant and important of a remarkable +series.”—<cite>Westminster Gazette.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Delphos</span>, or the Future of International +Language. By <span class="smcap">E. Sylvia Pankhurst</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Equal to anything yet produced in this +brilliant series. Miss Pankhurst states very +clearly what all thinking people must soon +come to believe, that an international language +would be one of the greatest assets of civilization.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite> +“A most readable book, +full of enthusiasm, an important contribution +to this subject.”—<cite>International Language.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Gallio</span>, or the Tyranny of Science. By +<span class="smcap">J. W. N. Sullivan</span>, author of “A +History of Mathematics.”</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“So packed with ideas that it is not possible +to give any adequate <i lang="fr">résumé</i> of its contents.”—<cite>Times +Literary Supplement.</cite> “His remarkable +monograph, his devastating summary of +materialism, this pocket <cite>Novum Organum</cite>.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite> +“Possesses a real distinction of +thought and manner. It must be read.”—<cite>New +Statesman.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Apollonius</span>, or the Future of Psychical +Research. By <span class="smcap">E. N. Bennett</span>, author +of “Problems of Village Life,” etc.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“A sane, temperate and suggestive survey +of a field of inquiry which is slowly but surely +pushing to the front.”—<cite>Times Literary Supplement.</cite> +“His exposition of the case for psychic +research is lucid and interesting.”—<cite>Scotsman.</cite> +“Displays the right temper, admirably conceived, +skilfully executed.”—<cite>Liverpool Post.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[15]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Aeolus</span>, or the Future of the Flying +Machine. By <span class="smcap">Oliver Stewart</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Both his wit and his expertness save him +from the nonsensical-fantastic. There is +nothing vague or sloppy in these imaginative +forecasts.”—<cite>Daily News.</cite> “He is to be congratulated. +His book is small, but it is so +delightfully funny that it is well worth the +price, and there really are sensible ideas +behind the jesting.”—<cite>Aeroplane.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Stentor</span>, or the Press of To-Day and +To-Morrow. By <span class="smcap">David Ockham</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“A valuable and exceedingly interesting commentary +on a vital phase of modern development.”—<cite>Daily +Herald.</cite> “Vigorous and well-written, +eminently readable.”—<cite>Yorkshire +Post.</cite> “He has said what one expects any +sensible person to say about the ‘trustification’ +of the Press.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Rusticus</span>, or the Future of the Countryside. +By <span class="smcap">Martin S. Briggs</span>, <span class="smcap">F.R.I.B.A.</span></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Few of the 50 volumes, provocative and +brilliant as most of them have been, capture +our imagination as does this one.”—<cite>Daily +Telegraph.</cite> “The historical part is as brilliant +a piece of packed writing as could be desired.”—<cite>Daily +Herald.</cite> “Serves a national end. The +book is in essence a pamphlet, though it has +the form and charm of a book.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Janus</span>, or the Conquest of War. By +<span class="smcap">William McDougall</span>, <span class="smcap">M.B.</span>, <span class="smcap">F.R.S.</span></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Among all the booklets of this brilliant series, +none, I think is so weighty and impressive as +this. It contains thrice as much matter as +the other volumes and is profoundly serious.”—<i>Dean +Inge</i>, in <cite>Evening Standard</cite>. “A +deeply interesting and fair-minded study of +the causes of war and the possibilities of their +prevention. Every word is sound.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[16]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Vulcan</span>, or the Future of Labour. By +<span class="smcap">Cecil Chisholm</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">“Of absorbing interest.”—<cite>Daily Herald.</cite> “No +one, perhaps, has ever condensed so many hard +facts into the appearance of agreeable fiction, +nor held the balance so nicely between technicalities +and flights of fancy, as the author of +this excellent book in a brilliant series. <cite>Vulcan</cite> +is a little book, but between its covers knowledge +and vision are pressed down and +brimming over.”—<cite>Spectator.</cite></p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Hymen</span>, or the Future of Marriage. By +<span class="smcap">Norman Haire</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">This candid and unprejudiced survey inquires +why the majority of marriages to-day seem to +be so unsatisfactory, and finds the answer in +the sexual ethic of our civilization which is ill +adapted to our social and economic needs. The +problems of sex-morality, sex-education, prostitution, +in-breeding, birth-control, trial-marriage, +and polygamy are all touched upon.</p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">The Next Chapter</span>: the War against +the Moon. By <span class="smcap">André Maurois</span>, author +of ‘Ariel’, etc.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">This imaginary chapter of world-history +(1951–64) from the pen of one of the most +brilliant living French authors mixes satire +and fancy in just proportions. It tells how +the press of the world is controlled by five +men, how world interest is focussed on an +attack on the moon, how thus the threat of +world-war is averted. But when the moon +retaliates....</p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[17]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Galatea</span>, or the Future of Darwinism. +By <span class="smcap">W. Russell Brain</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">This non-technical but closely-reasoned book +is a challenge to the orthodox teaching on +evolution known as Neo-Darwinism. The +author claims that, although Neo-Darwinian +theories can possibly account for the evolution +of forms, they are quite inadequate to explain +the evolution of functions.</p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Scheherazade</span>, or the Future of the +English Novel. By <span class="smcap">John Carruthers</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">A survey of contemporary fiction in England +and America lends to the conclusion that the +literary and scientific influences of the last +fifty years have combined to make the novel +of to-day predominantly analytic. It has +thus gained in psychological subtlety, but lost +its form. How this may be regained is put +forward in the conclusion.</p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Caledonia</span>, or the Future of the Scots. +By <span class="smcap">G. M. Thomson</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">Exit the Scot! Under this heading the +Scottish people are revealed as a leaderless +mob in whom national pride has been +strangled. They regard, unmoved, the spectacle +of their monstrous slum-evil, the decay of +their industries, the devastation of their +countryside. This is the most compact +and mordant indictment of Scottish policy +that has yet been written.</p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Albyn</span>, or Scotland and the Future. By +<span class="smcap">C. M. Grieve</span>, author of ‘Contemporary +Scottish Studies’, etc.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">A vigorous answer, explicit and implicit, to +<cite>Caledonia</cite>, tracing the movements of a real +Scottish revival, in music, art, literature, and +politics, and coming to the conclusion that +there is a chance even now for the regeneration +of the Scottish people.</p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[18]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Lares et Penates</span>, or the Future of the +Home. By <span class="smcap">H. J. Birnstingl</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">All the many forces at work to-day are +influencing the planning, appearance, and +equipment of the home. This is the main +thesis of this stimulating volume, which considers +also the labour-saving movement, the +‘ideal’ house, the influence of women, the +servant problem, and the relegation of aesthetic +considerations to the background. +Disconcerting prognostications follow.</p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="noindent center p2"><i>NEARLY READY</i></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Archon</span>, or the Future of Government. +By <span class="smcap">Hamilton Fyfe</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">A survey of the methods of government in the +past leads the author to a consideration of +conditions in the world of to-day. He then +indicates the lines along which progress may +develop.</p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Hermes</span>, or the Future of Chemistry. +By <span class="smcap">T. W. Jones</span>, <span class="smcap">b.sc.</span>, <span class="smcap">f.c.s.</span></p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">Chemistry as the means of human emancipation +is the subject of this book. To-day +chemistry is one of the master factors of our +existence; to-morrow it will dominate every +phase of life, winning for man the goal of all +his endeavour, economic freedom. It may +also effect a startling change in man himself.</p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">The Future of Physics.</span> By <span class="smcap">L. L. Whyte</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">The last few years have been a critical period +in the development of physics. We stand on +the eve of a new epoch. Physics, biology, and +psychology are converging towards a scientific +synthesis of unprecedented importance whose +influence on thought and social custom will be +so profound as to mark a stage in human +evolution. This book interprets these events +and should be read in connexion with <cite>Gallio</cite>, +by J. W. N. Sullivan, in this series.</p> +</blockquote> + +<p><span class="pagenum">[19]</span></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Ikonoclastes</span>, or the Future of Shakespeare. +By <span class="smcap">Hubert Griffiths</span>.</p> + +<blockquote> +<p class="noindent small">Taking as text the recent productions of +classical plays in modern dress, the author, a +distinguished dramatic critic, suggests that +this is the proper way of reviving Shakespeare +and other great dramatists of the past, and +that their successful revival in modern dress +may perhaps be taken as an indication of their +value.</p> +</blockquote> + +<p class="noindent center p2"><i>IN PREPARATION</i></p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Bacchus</span>, or the Future of Wine. By +<span class="smcap">P. Morton Shand</span>.</p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">Mercurius</span>, or the World on Wings. +By <span class="smcap">C. Thompson Walker</span>.</p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">The Future of Sport.</span> By <span class="smcap">G. S. +Sandilands</span>.</p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">The Future of India.</span> By <span class="smcap">T. Earle +Welby</span>.</p> + +<p class="hanging1"><span class="bold">The Future of Films.</span> By <span class="smcap">Ernest +Betts</span>.</p> +</div> + +<hr class="end-of-book x-ebookmaker-drop"> + +<div class="transnote-end chapter p4"> + +<p class="noindent center bold TN-style-1"><a id="TN"></a>Transcriber’s Note (continued)</p> + +<p class="TN-style-1">Errors in punctuation and simple typos have been +corrected without note. Archaic or variant spelling, inconsistent +hyphenation, etc., has been left as it appears in the original +publication unless as noted in the following:</p> + +<p class="TN-style-2">Page 12 – “insistance” changed to “insistence” (The continued insistence that speed)</p> + +<p class="TN-style-2">Page 35 – “persistance” changed to “persistence” (foretold with tiresome persistence)</p> + +<p class="TN-style-2">End matter page 17 – “montrous” changed to “monstrous” (their monstrous slum-evil)</p> + +<p class="TN-style-1 p2"><a class="underline" href="#top">Back to top</a></p> +</div> + +<div style='text-align:center'>*** END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK 76988 ***</div> +</body> +</html> + diff --git a/76988-h/images/cover.jpg b/76988-h/images/cover.jpg Binary files differnew file mode 100644 index 0000000..9220175 --- /dev/null +++ b/76988-h/images/cover.jpg diff --git a/76988-h/images/i_029.jpg b/76988-h/images/i_029.jpg Binary files differnew file mode 100644 index 0000000..ff4c744 --- /dev/null +++ b/76988-h/images/i_029.jpg diff --git a/76988-h/images/i_033.jpg b/76988-h/images/i_033.jpg Binary files differnew file mode 100644 index 0000000..bdfe89b --- /dev/null +++ b/76988-h/images/i_033.jpg diff --git a/76988-h/images/i_065.jpg b/76988-h/images/i_065.jpg Binary files differnew file mode 100644 index 0000000..3fa3753 --- /dev/null +++ b/76988-h/images/i_065.jpg diff --git a/LICENSE.txt b/LICENSE.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b5dba15 --- /dev/null +++ b/LICENSE.txt @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +This book, including all associated images, markup, improvements, +metadata, and any other content or labor, has been confirmed to be +in the PUBLIC DOMAIN IN THE UNITED STATES. + +Procedures for determining public domain status are described in +the "Copyright How-To" at https://www.gutenberg.org. + +No investigation has been made concerning possible copyrights in +jurisdictions other than the United States. 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