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diff --git a/.gitattributes b/.gitattributes new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6833f05 --- /dev/null +++ b/.gitattributes @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +* text=auto +*.txt text +*.md text diff --git a/684-h.zip b/684-h.zip Binary files differnew file mode 100644 index 0000000..d451f4a --- /dev/null +++ b/684-h.zip diff --git a/684-h/684-h.htm b/684-h/684-h.htm new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e25b9d3 --- /dev/null +++ b/684-h/684-h.htm @@ -0,0 +1,1523 @@ +<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN"> +<HTML> +<HEAD> + +<META HTTP-EQUIV="Content-Type" CONTENT="text/html; charset=iso-8859-1"> + +<TITLE> +The Project Gutenberg E-text of Worldwide Effects of Nuclear War: Some Perspectives, +by United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency +</TITLE> + +<STYLE TYPE="text/css"> +BODY { color: Black; + background: White; + margin-right: 10%; + margin-left: 10%; + font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; + text-align: justify } + +PRE { font-size: medium ; + font-family: "Times New Roman", serif; } + +P {text-indent: 4% } + +P.noindent {text-indent: 0% } + +P.poem {text-indent: 0%; + margin-left: 10%; + font-size: small } + +P.intro {text-indent: 0%; + margin-left: 10%; + margin-right: 10%; + font-size: smaller } + +P.finis { text-align: center ; + text-indent: 0% ; + margin-left: 0% ; + margin-right: 0% } + +</STYLE> + +</HEAD> + +<BODY> + + +<pre> + +The Project Gutenberg EBook of Worldwide Effects of Nuclear War: Some +Perspectives, by United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency + +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + + +Title: Worldwide Effects of Nuclear War: Some Perspectives + +Author: United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency + +Posting Date: August 12, 2008 [EBook #684] +Release Date: October, 1996 + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: ISO-8859-1 + +*** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK WORLDWIDE EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR WAR *** + + + + +Produced by Gregory Walker + + + + + +</pre> + + +<BR><BR> + +<P CLASS="intro"> +For an HTML version of this document and additional public domain +documents on nuclear history, visit Trinity Atomic Web Site: +http://www.envirolink.org/issues/nuketesting/<BR><BR> +Updater's note: the above link no longer works. +</P> + +<BR><BR><BR> + +<H1 ALIGN="center"> +WORLDWIDE EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR WAR:<BR>SOME PERSPECTIVES +</H1> + +<BR> + +<H2 ALIGN="center"> +U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, 1975. +</H2> + +<BR><BR> + +<H2 ALIGN="center"> +CONTENTS +</H2> + +<BR> + +<PRE> + <A HREF="#foreword">Foreword</A> + <A HREF="#introduction">Introduction</A> + <A HREF="#mechanics">The Mechanics of Nuclear Explosions</A> + <A HREF="#fallout">Radioactive Fallout</A> + A. <A HREF="#local">Local Fallout</A> + B. <A HREF="#worldwide">Worldwide Effects of Fallout</A> + <A HREF="#environment">Alterations of the Global Environment</A> + A. <A HREF="#dust">High Altitude Dust</A> + B. <A HREF="#ozone">Ozone</A> + <A HREF="#conclusions">Some Conclusions</A> + + Note 1: <A HREF="#note1">Nuclear Weapons Yield</A> + Note 2: <A HREF="#note2">Nuclear Weapons Design</A> + Note 3: <A HREF="#note3">Radioactivity</A> + Note 4: <A HREF="#note4">Nuclear Half-Life</A> + Note 5: <A HREF="#note5">Oxygen, Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation</A> +</PRE> + +<BR><BR><BR> + +<A NAME="foreword"></A> +<H3 ALIGN="center"> +FOREWORD +</H3> + +<P> +Much research has been devoted to the effects of nuclear weapons. But +studies have been concerned for the most part with those immediate +consequences which would be suffered by a country that was the direct +target of nuclear attack. Relatively few studies have examined the +worldwide, long term effects. +</P> + +<P> +Realistic and responsible arms control policy calls for our knowing +more about these wider effects and for making this knowledge available +to the public. To learn more about them, the Arms Control and +Disarmament Agency (ACDA) has initiated a number of projects, including +a National Academy of Sciences study, requested in April 1974. The +Academy's study, Long-Term Worldwide Effects of Multiple Nuclear +Weapons Detonations, a highly technical document of more than 200 +pages, is now available. The present brief publication seeks to +include its essential findings, along with the results of related +studies of this Agency, and to provide as well the basic background +facts necessary for informed perspectives on the issue. +</P> + +<P> +New discoveries have been made, yet much uncertainty inevitably +persists. Our knowledge of nuclear warfare rests largely on theory and +hypothesis, fortunately untested by the usual processes of trial and +error; the paramount goal of statesmanship is that we should never +learn from the experience of nuclear war. +</P> + +<P> +The uncertainties that remain are of such magnitude that of themselves +they must serve as a further deterrent to the use of nuclear weapons. +At the same time, knowledge, even fragmentary knowledge, of the broader +effects of nuclear weapons underlines the extreme difficulty that +strategic planners of any nation would face in attempting to predict +the results of a nuclear war. Uncertainty is one of the major +conclusions in our studies, as the haphazard and unpredicted derivation +of many of our discoveries emphasizes. Moreover, it now appears that a +massive attack with many large-scale nuclear detonations could cause +such widespread and long-lasting environmental damage that the +aggressor country might suffer serious physiological, economic, and +environmental effects even without a nuclear response by the country +attacked. +</P> + +<P> +An effort has been made to present this paper in language that does not +require a scientific background on the part of the reader. +Nevertheless it must deal in schematized processes, abstractions, and +statistical generalizations. Hence one supremely important perspective +must be largely supplied by the reader: the human perspective--the +meaning of these physical effects for individual human beings and for +the fabric of civilized life. +</P> + +<P CLASS="noindent"> + Fred C. Ikle<BR> + Director<BR> + U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency<BR> +</P> + +<BR><BR><BR> + +<A NAME="introduction"></A> +<H3 ALIGN="center"> +INTRODUCTION +</H3> + +<P> +It has now been two decades since the introduction of thermonuclear +fusion weapons into the military inventories of the great powers, and +more than a decade since the United States, Great Britain, and the +Soviet Union ceased to test nuclear weapons in the atmosphere. Today +our understanding of the technology of thermonuclear weapons seems +highly advanced, but our knowledge of the physical and biological +consequences of nuclear war is continuously evolving. +</P> + +<P> +Only recently, new light was shed on the subject in a study which the +Arms Control and Disarmament Agency had asked the National Academy of +Sciences to undertake. Previous studies had tended to focus very +largely on radioactive fallout from a nuclear war; an important aspect +of this new study was its inquiry into all possible consequences, +including the effects of large-scale nuclear detonations on the ozone +layer which helps protect life on earth from the sun's ultraviolet +radiations. Assuming a total detonation of 10,000 megatons--a +large-scale but less than total nuclear "exchange," as one would say in +the dehumanizing jargon of the strategists--it was concluded that as +much as 30-70 percent of the ozone might be eliminated from the +northern hemisphere (where a nuclear war would presumably take place) +and as much as 20-40 percent from the southern hemisphere. Recovery +would probably take about 3-10 years, but the Academy's study notes +that long term global changes cannot be completely ruled out. +</P> + +<P> +The reduced ozone concentrations would have a number of consequences +outside the areas in which the detonations occurred. The Academy study +notes, for example, that the resultant increase in ultraviolet would +cause "prompt incapacitating cases of sunburn in the temperate zones +and snow blindness in northern countries . . ." +</P> + +<P> +Strange though it might seem, the increased ultraviolet radiation could +also be accompanied by a drop in the average temperature. The size of +the change is open to question, but the largest changes would probably +occur at the higher latitudes, where crop production and ecological +balances are sensitively dependent on the number of frost-free days and +other factors related to average temperature. The Academy's study +concluded that ozone changes due to nuclear war might decrease global +surface temperatures by only negligible amounts or by as much as a few +degrees. To calibrate the significance of this, the study mentioned +that a cooling of even 1 degree centigrade would eliminate commercial +wheat growing in Canada. +</P> + +<P> +Thus, the possibility of a serious increase in ultraviolet radiation +has been added to widespread radioactive fallout as a fearsome +consequence of the large-scale use of nuclear weapons. And it is +likely that we must reckon with still other complex and subtle +processes, global in scope, which could seriously threaten the health +of distant populations in the event of an all-out nuclear war. +</P> + +<P> +Up to now, many of the important discoveries about nuclear weapon +effects have been made not through deliberate scientific inquiry but by +accident. And as the following historical examples show, there has been +a series of surprises. +</P> + +<P> +"Castle/Bravo" was the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated by the +United States. Before it was set off at Bikini on February 28, 1954, +it was expected to explode with an energy equivalent of about 8 million +tons of TNT. Actually, it produced almost twice that explosive +power--equivalent to 15 million tons of TNT. +</P> + +<P> +If the power of the bomb was unexpected, so were the after-effects. +About 6 hours after the explosion, a fine, sandy ash began to sprinkle +the Japanese fishing vessel Lucky Dragon, some 90 miles downwind of the +burst point, and Rongelap Atoll, 100 miles downwind. Though 40 to 50 +miles away from the proscribed test area, the vessel's crew and the +islanders received heavy doses of radiation from the weapon's +"fallout"--the coral rock, soil, and other debris sucked up in the +fireball and made intensively radioactive by the nuclear reaction. One +radioactive isotope in the fallout, iodine-131, rapidly built up to +serious concentration in the thyroid glands of the victims, +particularly young Rongelapese children. +</P> + +<P> +More than any other event in the decade of testing large nuclear +weapons in the atmosphere, Castle/Bravo's unexpected contamination of +7,000 square miles of the Pacific Ocean dramatically illustrated how +large-scale nuclear war could produce casualties on a colossal scale, +far beyond the local effects of blast and fire alone. +</P> + +<P> +A number of other surprises were encountered during 30 years of nuclear +weapons development. For example, what was probably man's most +extensive modification of the global environment to date occurred in +September 1962, when a nuclear device was detonated 250 miles above +Johnson Island. The 1.4-megaton burst produced an artificial belt of +charged particles trapped in the earth's magnetic field. Though 98 +percent of these particles were removed by natural processes after the +first year, traces could be detected 6 or 7 years later. A number of +satellites in low earth orbit at the time of the burst suffered severe +electronic damage resulting in malfunctions and early failure. It +became obvious that man now had the power to make long term changes in +his near-space environment. +</P> + +<P> +Another unexpected effect of high-altitude bursts was the blackout of +high-frequency radio communications. Disruption of the ionosphere +(which reflects radio signals back to the earth) by nuclear bursts over +the Pacific has wiped out long-distance radio communications for hours +at distances of up to 600 miles from the burst point. +</P> + +<P> +Yet another surprise was the discovery that electromagnetic pulses can +play havoc with electrical equipment itself, including some in command +systems that control the nuclear arms themselves. +</P> + +<P> +Much of our knowledge was thus gained by chance--a fact which should +imbue us with humility as we contemplate the remaining uncertainties +(as well as the certainties) about nuclear warfare. What we have +learned enables us, nonetheless, to see more clearly. We know, for +instance, that some of the earlier speculations about the after-effects +of a global nuclear war were as far-fetched as they were +horrifying--such as the idea that the worldwide accumulation of +radioactive fallout would eliminate all life on the planet, or that it +might produce a train of monstrous genetic mutations in all living +things, making future life unrecognizable. And this accumulation of +knowledge which enables us to rule out the more fanciful possibilities +also allows us to reexamine, with some scientific rigor, other +phenomena which could seriously affect the global environment and the +populations of participant and nonparticipant countries alike. +</P> + +<P> +This paper is an attempt to set in perspective some of the longer term +effects of nuclear war on the global environment, with emphasis on +areas and peoples distant from the actual targets of the weapons. +</P> + +<BR><BR><BR> + +<A NAME="mechanics"></A> +<H3 ALIGN="center"> +THE MECHANICS OF NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS +</H3> + +<P> +In nuclear explosions, about 90 percent of the energy is released in +less than one millionth of a second. Most of this is in the form of +the heat and shock waves which produce the damage. It is this +immediate and direct explosive power which could devastate the urban +centers in a major nuclear war. +</P> + +<P> +Compared with the immediate colossal destruction suffered in target +areas, the more subtle, longer term effects of the remaining 10 percent +of the energy released by nuclear weapons might seem a matter of +secondary concern. But the dimensions of the initial catastrophe +should not overshadow the after-effects of a nuclear war. They would +be global, affecting nations remote from the fighting for many years +after the holocaust, because of the way nuclear explosions behave in +the atmosphere and the radioactive products released by nuclear bursts. +</P> + +<P> +When a weapon is detonated at the surface of the earth or at low +altitudes, the heat pulse vaporizes the bomb material, target, nearby +structures, and underlying soil and rock, all of which become entrained +in an expanding, fast-rising fireball. As the fireball rises, it +expands and cools, producing the distinctive mushroom cloud, signature +of nuclear explosions. +</P> + +<P> +The altitude reached by the cloud depends on the force of the +explosion. When yields are in the low-kiloton range, the cloud will +remain in the lower atmosphere and its effects will be entirely local. +But as yields exceed 30 kilotons, part of the cloud will punch into the +stratosphere, which begins about 7 miles up. With yields of 2-5 +megatons or more, virtually all of the cloud of radioactive debris and +fine dust will climb into the stratosphere. The heavier materials +reaching the lower edge of the stratosphere will soon settle out, as +did the Castle/Bravo fallout at Rongelap. But the lighter particles +will penetrate high into the stratosphere, to altitudes of 12 miles and +more, and remain there for months and even years. Stratospheric +circulation and diffusion will spread this material around the world. +</P> + +<BR><BR><BR> + +<A NAME="fallout"></A> +<H3 ALIGN="center"> +RADIOACTIVE FALLOUT +</H3> + +<P> +Both the local and worldwide fallout hazards of nuclear explosions +depend on a variety of interacting factors: weapon design, explosive +force, altitude and latitude of detonation, time of year, and local +weather conditions. +</P> + +<P> +All present nuclear weapon designs require the splitting of heavy +elements like uranium and plutonium. The energy released in this +fission process is many millions of times greater, pound for pound, +than the most energetic chemical reactions. The smaller nuclear +weapon, in the low-kiloton range, may rely solely on the energy +released by the fission process, as did the first bombs which +devastated Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The larger yield nuclear +weapons derive a substantial part of their explosive force from the +fusion of heavy forms of hydrogen--deuterium and tritium. Since there +is virtually no limitation on the volume of fusion materials in a +weapon, and the materials are less costly than fissionable materials, +the fusion, "thermonuclear," or "hydrogen" bomb brought a radical +increase in the explosive power of weapons. However, the fission +process is still necessary to achieve the high temperatures and +pressures needed to trigger the hydrogen fusion reactions. Thus, all +nuclear detonations produce radioactive fragments of heavy elements +fission, with the larger bursts producing an additional radiation +component from the fusion process. +</P> + +<P> +The nuclear fragments of heavy-element fission which are of greatest +concern are those radioactive atoms (also called radionuclides) which +decay by emitting energetic electrons or gamma particles. (See +"Radioactivity" note.) An important characteristic here is the rate of +decay. This is measured in terms of "half-life"--the time required for +one-half of the original substance to decay--which ranges from days to +thousands of years for the bomb-produced radionuclides of principal +interest. (See "Nuclear Half-Life" note.) Another factor which is +critical in determining the hazard of radionuclides is the chemistry of +the atoms. This determines whether they will be taken up by the body +through respiration or the food cycle and incorporated into tissue. If +this occurs, the risk of biological damage from the destructive +ionizing radiation (see "Radioactivity" note) is multiplied. +</P> + +<P> +Probably the most serious threat is cesium-137, a gamma emitter with a +half-life of 30 years. It is a major source of radiation in nuclear +fallout, and since it parallels potassium chemistry, it is readily +taken into the blood of animals and men and may be incorporated into +tissue. +</P> + +<P> +Other hazards are strontium-90, an electron emitter with a half-life of +28 years, and iodine-131 with a half-life of only 8 days. Strontium-90 +follows calcium chemistry, so that it is readily incorporated into the +bones and teeth, particularly of young children who have received milk +from cows consuming contaminated forage. Iodine-131 is a similar +threat to infants and children because of its concentration in the +thyroid gland. In addition, there is plutonium-239, frequently used in +nuclear explosives. A bone-seeker like strontium-90, it may also become +lodged in the lungs, where its intense local radiation can cause cancer +or other damage. Plutonium-239 decays through emission of an alpha +particle (helium nucleus) and has a half-life of 24,000 years. +</P> + +<P> +To the extent that hydrogen fusion contributes to the explosive force +of a weapon, two other radionuclides will be released: tritium +(hydrogen-3), an electron emitter with a half-life of 12 years, and +carbon-14, an electron emitter with a half-life of 5,730 years. Both +are taken up through the food cycle and readily incorporated in organic +matter. +</P> + +<P> +Three types of radiation damage may occur: bodily damage (mainly +leukemia and cancers of the thyroid, lung, breast, bone, and +gastrointestinal tract); genetic damage (birth defects and +constitutional and degenerative diseases due to gonodal damage suffered +by parents); and development and growth damage (primarily growth and +mental retardation of unborn infants and young children). Since heavy +radiation doses of about 20 roentgen or more (see "Radioactivity" note) +are necessary to produce developmental defects, these effects would +probably be confined to areas of heavy local fallout in the nuclear +combatant nations and would not become a global problem. +</P> + +<BR><BR> + +<A NAME="local"></A> +<H3> +A. Local Fallout +</H3> + +<P> +Most of the radiation hazard from nuclear bursts comes from short-lived +radionuclides external to the body; these are generally confined to the +locality downwind of the weapon burst point. This radiation hazard +comes from radioactive fission fragments with half-lives of seconds to +a few months, and from soil and other materials in the vicinity of the +burst made radioactive by the intense neutron flux of the fission and +fusion reactions. +</P> + +<P> +It has been estimated that a weapon with a fission yield of 1 million +tons TNT equivalent power (1 megaton) exploded at ground level in a 15 +miles-per-hour wind would produce fallout in an ellipse extending +hundreds of miles downwind from the burst point. At a distance of +20-25 miles downwind, a lethal radiation dose (600 rads) would be +accumulated by a person who did not find shelter within 25 minutes +after the time the fallout began. At a distance of 40-45 miles, a +person would have at most 3 hours after the fallout began to find +shelter. Considerably smaller radiation doses will make people +seriously ill. Thus, the survival prospects of persons immediately +downwind of the burst point would be slim unless they could be +sheltered or evacuated. +</P> + +<P> +It has been estimated that an attack on U.S. population centers by 100 +weapons of one-megaton fission yield would kill up to 20 percent of the +population immediately through blast, heat, ground shock and instant +radiation effects (neutrons and gamma rays); an attack with 1,000 such +weapons would destroy immediately almost half the U.S. population. +These figures do not include additional deaths from fires, lack of +medical attention, starvation, or the lethal fallout showering to the +ground downwind of the burst points of the weapons. +</P> + +<P> +Most of the bomb-produced radionuclides decay rapidly. Even so, beyond +the blast radius of the exploding weapons there would be areas ("hot +spots") the survivors could not enter because of radioactive +contamination from long-lived radioactive isotopes like strontium-90 or +cesium-137, which can be concentrated through the food chain and +incorporated into the body. The damage caused would be internal, with +the injurious effects appearing over many years. For the survivors of +a nuclear war, this lingering radiation hazard could represent a grave +threat for as long as 1 to 5 years after the attack. +</P> + +<BR><BR> + +<A NAME="worldwide"></A> +<H3> +B. Worldwide Effects of Fallout +</H3> + +<P> +Much of our knowledge of the production and distribution of +radionuclides has been derived from the period of intensive nuclear +testing in the atmosphere during the 1950's and early 1960's. It is +estimated that more than 500 megatons of nuclear yield were detonated +in the atmosphere between 1945 and 1971, about half of this yield being +produced by a fission reaction. The peak occurred in 1961-62, when a +total of 340 megatons were detonated in the atmosphere by the United +States and Soviet Union. The limited nuclear test ban treaty of 1963 +ended atmospheric testing for the United States, Britain, and the +Soviet Union, but two major non-signatories, France and China, +continued nuclear testing at the rate of about 5 megatons annually. +(France now conducts its nuclear tests underground.) +</P> + +<P> +A U.N. scientific committee has estimated that the cumulative per +capita dose to the world's population up to the year 2000 as a result +of atmospheric testing through 1970 (cutoff date of the study) will be +the equivalent of 2 years' exposure to natural background radiation on +the earth's surface. For the bulk of the world's population, internal +and external radiation doses of natural origin amount to less than +one-tenth rad annually. Thus nuclear testing to date does not appear +to pose a severe radiation threat in global terms. But a nuclear war +releasing 10 or 100 times the total yield of all previous weapons tests +could pose a far greater worldwide threat. +</P> + +<P> +The biological effects of all forms of ionizing radiation have been +calculated within broad ranges by the National Academy of Sciences. +Based on these calculations, fallout from the 500-plus megatons of +nuclear testing through 1970 will produce between 2 and 25 cases of +genetic disease per million live births in the next generation. This +means that between 3 and 50 persons per billion births in the +post-testing generation will have genetic damage for each megaton of +nuclear yield exploded. With similar uncertainty, it is possible to +estimate that the induction of cancers would range from 75 to 300 cases +per megaton for each billion people in the post-test generation. +</P> + +<P> +If we apply these very rough yardsticks to a large-scale nuclear war in +which 10,000 megatons of nuclear force are detonated, the effects on a +world population of 5 billion appear enormous. Allowing for +uncertainties about the dynamics of a possible nuclear war, +radiation-induced cancers and genetic damage together over 30 years are +estimated to range from 1.5 to 30 million for the world population as a +whole. This would mean one additional case for every 100 to 3,000 +people or about 1/2 percent to 15 percent of the estimated peacetime +cancer death rate in developed countries. As will be seen, moreover, +there could be other, less well understood effects which would +drastically increase suffering and death. +</P> + +<BR><BR><BR> + +<A NAME="environment"></A> +<H3 ALIGN="center"> +ALTERATIONS OF THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT +</H3> + +<P> +A nuclear war would involve such prodigious and concentrated short term +release of high temperature energy that it is necessary to consider a +variety of potential environmental effects. +</P> + +<P> +It is true that the energy of nuclear weapons is dwarfed by many +natural phenomena. A large hurricane may have the power of a million +hydrogen bombs. But the energy release of even the most severe weather +is diffuse; it occurs over wide areas, and the difference in +temperature between the storm system and the surrounding atmosphere is +relatively small. Nuclear detonations are just the opposite--highly +concentrated with reaction temperatures up to tens of millions of +degrees Fahrenheit. Because they are so different from natural +processes, it is necessary to examine their potential for altering the +environment in several contexts. +</P> + +<BR><BR> + +<A NAME="dust"></A> +<H3> +A. High Altitude Dust +</H3> + +<P> +It has been estimated that a 10,000-megaton war with half the weapons +exploding at ground level would tear up some 25 billion cubic meters of +rock and soil, injecting a substantial amount of fine dust and +particles into the stratosphere. This is roughly twice the volume of +material blasted loose by the Indonesian volcano, Krakatoa, whose +explosion in 1883 was the most powerful terrestrial event ever +recorded. Sunsets around the world were noticeably reddened for +several years after the Krakatoa eruption, indicating that large +amounts of volcanic dust had entered the stratosphere. +</P> + +<P> +Subsequent studies of large volcanic explosions, such as Mt. Agung on +Bali in 1963, have raised the possibility that large-scale injection of +dust into the stratosphere would reduce sunlight intensities and +temperatures at the surface, while increasing the absorption of heat in +the upper atmosphere. +</P> + +<P> +The resultant minor changes in temperature and sunlight could affect +crop production. However, no catastrophic worldwide changes have +resulted from volcanic explosions, so it is doubtful that the gross +injection of particulates into the stratosphere by a 10,000-megaton +conflict would, by itself, lead to major global climate changes. +</P> + +<BR><BR><BR> + +<A NAME="ozone"></A> +<H3> +B. Ozone +</H3> + +<P> +More worrisome is the possible effect of nuclear explosions on ozone in +the stratosphere. Not until the 20th century was the unique and +paradoxical role of ozone fully recognized. On the other hand, in +concentrations greater than I part per million in the air we breathe, +ozone is toxic; one major American city, Los Angeles, has established a +procedure for ozone alerts and warnings. On the other hand, ozone is a +critically important feature of the stratosphere from the standpoint of +maintaining life on the earth. +</P> + +<P> +The reason is that while oxygen and nitrogen in the upper reaches of +the atmosphere can block out solar ultraviolet photons with wavelengths +shorter than 2,420 angstroms (A), ozone is the only effective shield in +the atmosphere against solar ultraviolet radiation between 2,500 and +3,000 A in wavelength. (See note 5.) Although ozone is extremely +efficient at filtering out solar ultraviolet in 2,500-3,000 A region of +the spectrum, some does get through at the higher end of the spectrum. +Ultraviolet rays in the range of 2,800 to 3,200 A which cause sunburn, +prematurely age human skin and produce skin cancers. As early as 1840, +arctic snow blindness was attributed to solar ultraviolet; and we have +since found that intense ultraviolet radiation can inhibit +photosynthesis in plants, stunt plant growth, damage bacteria, fungi, +higher plants, insects and annuals, and produce genetic alterations. +</P> + +<P> +Despite the important role ozone plays in assuring a liveable +environment at the earth's surface, the total quantity of ozone in the +atmosphere is quite small, only about 3 parts per million. +Furthermore, ozone is not a durable or static constituent of the +atmosphere. It is constantly created, destroyed, and recreated by +natural processes, so that the amount of ozone present at any given +time is a function of the equilibrium reached between the creative and +destructive chemical reactions and the solar radiation reaching the +upper stratosphere. +</P> + +<P> +The mechanism for the production of ozone is the absorption by oxygen +molecules (O2) of relatively short-wavelength ultraviolet light. The +oxygen molecule separates into two atoms of free oxygen, which +immediately unite with other oxygen molecules on the surfaces of +particles in the upper atmosphere. It is this union which forms ozone, +or O3. The heat released by the ozone-forming process is the reason +for the curious increase with altitude of the temperature of the +stratosphere (the base of which is about 36,000 feet above the earth's +surface). +</P> + +<P> +While the natural chemical reaction produces about 4,500 tons of ozone +per second in the stratosphere, this is offset by other natural +chemical reactions which break down the ozone. By far the most +significant involves nitric oxide (NO) which breaks ozone (O3) into +molecules. This effect was discovered only in the last few years in +studies of the environmental problems which might be encountered if +large fleets of supersonic transport aircraft operate routinely in the +lower stratosphere. According to a report by Dr. Harold S. Johnston, +University of California at Berkeley--prepared for the Department of +Transportation's Climatic Impact Assessment Program--it now appears +that the NO reaction is normally responsible for 50 to 70 percent of +the destruction of ozone. +</P> + +<P> +In the natural environment, there is a variety of means for the +production of NO and its transport into the stratosphere. Soil +bacteria produce nitrous oxide (N2O) which enters the lower atmosphere +and slowly diffuses into the stratosphere, where it reacts with free +oxygen (O) to form two NO molecules. Another mechanism for NO +production in the lower atmosphere may be lightning discharges, and +while NO is quickly washed out of the lower atmosphere by rain, some of +it may reach the stratosphere. Additional amounts of NO are produced +directly in the stratosphere by cosmic rays from the sun and +interstellar sources. +</P> + +<P> +It is because of this catalytic role which nitric oxide plays in the +destruction of ozone that it is important to consider the effects of +high-yield nuclear explosions on the ozone layer. The nuclear fireball +and the air entrained within it are subjected to great heat, followed +by relatively rapid cooling. These conditions are ideal for the +production of tremendous amounts of NO from the air. It has been +estimated that as much as 5,000 tons of nitric oxide is produced for +each megaton of nuclear explosive power. +</P> + +<P> +What would be the effects of nitric oxides driven into the stratosphere +by an all-out nuclear war, involving the detonation of 10,000 megatons +of explosive force in the northern hemisphere? According to the recent +National Academy of Sciences study, the nitric oxide produced by the +weapons could reduce the ozone levels in the northern hemisphere by as +much as 30 to 70 percent. +</P> + +<P> +To begin with, a depleted ozone layer would reflect back to the earth's +surface less heat than would normally be the case, thus causing a drop +in temperature--perhaps enough to produce serious effects on +agriculture. Other changes, such as increased amounts of dust or +different vegetation, might subsequently reverse this drop in +temperature--but on the other hand, it might increase it. +</P> + +<P> +Probably more important, life on earth has largely evolved within the +protective ozone shield and is presently adapted rather precisely to +the amount of solar ultraviolet which does get through. To defend +themselves against this low level of ultraviolet, evolved external +shielding (feathers, fur, cuticular waxes on fruit), internal shielding +(melanin pigment in human skin, flavenoids in plant tissue), avoidance +strategies (plankton migration to greater depths in the daytime, +shade-seeking by desert iguanas) and, in almost all organisms but +placental mammals, elaborate mechanisms to repair photochemical damage. +</P> + +<P> +It is possible, however, that a major increase in solar ultraviolet +might overwhelm the defenses of some and perhaps many terrestrial life +forms. Both direct and indirect damage would then occur among the +bacteria, insects, plants, and other links in the ecosystems on which +human well-being depends. This disruption, particularly if it occurred +in the aftermath of a major war involving many other dislocations, +could pose a serious additional threat to the recovery of postwar +society. The National Academy of Sciences report concludes that in 20 +years the ecological systems would have essentially recovered from the +increase in ultraviolet radiation--though not necessarily from +radioactivity or other damage in areas close to the war zone. However, +a delayed effect of the increase in ultraviolet radiation would be an +estimated 3 to 30 percent increase in skin cancer for 40 years in the +Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitudes. +</P> + +<BR><BR><BR> + +<A NAME="conclusions"></A> +<H3 ALIGN="center"> +SOME CONCLUSIONS +</H3> + +<P> +We have considered the problems of large-scale nuclear war from the +standpoint of the countries not under direct attack, and the +difficulties they might encounter in postwar recovery. It is true that +most of the horror and tragedy of nuclear war would be visited on the +populations subject to direct attack, who would doubtless have to cope +with extreme and perhaps insuperable obstacles in seeking to +reestablish their own societies. It is no less apparent, however, that +other nations, including those remote from the combat, could suffer +heavily because of damage to the global environment. +</P> + +<P> +Finally, at least brief mention should be made of the global effects +resulting from disruption of economic activities and communications. +Since 1970, an increasing fraction of the human race has been losing +the battle for self-sufficiency in food, and must rely on heavy +imports. A major disruption of agriculture and transportation in the +grain-exporting and manufacturing countries could thus prove disastrous +to countries importing food, farm machinery, and +fertilizers--especially those which are already struggling with the +threat of widespread starvation. Moreover, virtually every economic +area, from food and medicines to fuel and growth engendering +industries, the less-developed countries would find they could not rely +on the "undamaged" remainder of the developed world for trade +essentials: in the wake of a nuclear war the industrial powers directly +involved would themselves have to compete for resources with those +countries that today are described as "less-developed." +</P> + +<P> +Similarly, the disruption of international communications--satellites, +cables, and even high frequency radio links--could be a major obstacle +to international recovery efforts. +</P> + +<P> +In attempting to project the after-effects of a major nuclear war, we +have considered separately the various kinds of damage that could +occur. It is also quite possible, however, that interactions might +take place among these effects, so that one type of damage would couple +with another to produce new and unexpected hazards. For example, we +can assess individually the consequences of heavy worldwide radiation +fallout and increased solar ultraviolet, but we do not know whether the +two acting together might significantly increase human, animal, or +plant susceptibility to disease. We can conclude that massive dust +injection into the stratosphere, even greater in scale than Krakatoa, +is unlikely by itself to produce significant climatic and environmental +change, but we cannot rule out interactions with other phenomena, such +as ozone depletion, which might produce utterly unexpected results. +</P> + +<P> +We have come to realize that nuclear weapons can be as unpredictable as +they are deadly in their effects. Despite some 30 years of development +and study, there is still much that we do not know. This is +particularly true when we consider the global effects of a large-scale +nuclear war. +</P> + +<BR><BR><BR> + +<A NAME="note1"></A> +<H3> +Note 1: Nuclear Weapons Yield +</H3> + +<P> +The most widely used standard for measuring the power of nuclear +weapons is "yield," expressed as the quantity of chemical explosive +(TNT) that would produce the same energy release. The first atomic +weapon which leveled Hiroshima in 1945, had a yield of 13 kilotons; +that is, the explosive power of 13,000 tons of TNT. (The largest +conventional bomb dropped in World War II contained about 10 tons of +TNT.) +</P> + +<P> +Since Hiroshima, the yields or explosive power of nuclear weapons have +vastly increased. The world's largest nuclear detonation, set off in +1962 by the Soviet Union, had a yield of 58 megatons--equivalent to 58 +million tons of TNT. A modern ballistic missile may carry warhead +yields up to 20 or more megatons. +</P> + +<P> +Even the most violent wars of recent history have been relatively +limited in terms of the total destructive power of the non-nuclear +weapons used. A single aircraft or ballistic missile today can carry a +nuclear explosive force surpassing that of all the non-nuclear bombs +used in recent wars. The number of nuclear bombs and missiles the +superpowers now possess runs into the thousands. +</P> + +<BR><BR><BR> + +<A NAME="note2"></A> +<H3> +Note 2: Nuclear Weapons Design +</H3> + +<P> +Nuclear weapons depend on two fundamentally different types of nuclear +reactions, each of which releases energy: +</P> + +<P> +Fission, which involves the splitting of heavy elements (e.g. uranium); +and fusion, which involves the combining of light elements (e.g. +hydrogen). +</P> + +<P> +Fission requires that a minimum amount of material or "critical mass" +be brought together in contact for the nuclear explosion to take place. +The more efficient fission weapons tend to fall in the yield range of +tens of kilotons. Higher explosive yields become increasingly complex +and impractical. +</P> + +<P> +Nuclear fusion permits the design of weapons of virtually limitless +power. In fusion, according to nuclear theory, when the nuclei of light +atoms like hydrogen are joined, the mass of the fused nucleus is +lighter than the two original nuclei; the loss is expressed as energy. +By the 1930's, physicists had concluded that this was the process which +powered the sun and stars; but the nuclear fusion process remained only +of theoretical interest until it was discovered that an atomic fission +bomb might be used as a "trigger" to produce, within one- or +two-millionths of a second, the intense pressure and temperature +necessary to set off the fusion reaction. +</P> + +<P> +Fusion permits the design of weapons of almost limitless power, using +materials that are far less costly. +</P> + +<BR><BR><BR> + +<A NAME="note3"></A> +<H3> +Note 3: Radioactivity +</H3> + +<P> +Most familiar natural elements like hydrogen, oxygen, gold, and lead +are stable, and enduring unless acted upon by outside forces. But +almost all elements can exist in unstable forms. The nuclei of these +unstable "isotopes," as they are called, are "uncomfortable" with the +particular mixture of nuclear particles comprising them, and they +decrease this internal stress through the process of radioactive decay. +</P> + +<P> +The three basic modes of radioactive decay are the emission of alpha, +beta and gamma radiation: +</P> + +<P> +Alpha--Unstable nuclei frequently emit alpha particles, actually helium +nuclei consisting of two protons and two neutrons. By far the most +massive of the decay particles, it is also the slowest, rarely +exceeding one-tenth the velocity of light. As a result, its +penetrating power is weak, and it can usually be stopped by a piece of +paper. But if alpha emitters like plutonium are incorporated in the +body, they pose a serious cancer threat. +</P> + +<P> +Beta--Another form of radioactive decay is the emission of a beta +particle, or electron. The beta particle has only about one +seven-thousandth the mass of the alpha particle, but its velocity is +very much greater, as much as eight-tenths the velocity of light. As a +result, beta particles can penetrate far more deeply into bodily tissue +and external doses of beta radiation represent a significantly greater +threat than the slower, heavier alpha particles. Beta-emitting +isotopes are as harmful as alpha emitters if taken up by the body. +</P> + +<P> +Gamma--In some decay processes, the emission is a photon having no mass +at all and traveling at the speed of light. Radio waves, visible +light, radiant heat, and X-rays are all photons, differing only in the +energy level each carries. The gamma ray is similar to the X-ray +photon, but far more penetrating (it can traverse several inches of +concrete). It is capable of doing great damage in the body. +</P> + +<P> +Common to all three types of nuclear decay radiation is their ability +to ionize (i.e., unbalance electrically) the neutral atoms through +which they pass, that is, give them a net electrical charge. The alpha +particle, carrying a positive electrical charge, pulls electrons from +the atoms through which it passes, while negatively charged beta +particles can push electrons out of neutral atoms. If energetic betas +pass sufficiently close to atomic nuclei, they can produce X-rays which +themselves can ionize additional neutral atoms. Massless but energetic +gamma rays can knock electrons out of neutral atoms in the same fashion +as X-rays, leaving them ionized. A single particle of radiation can +ionize hundreds of neutral atoms in the tissue in multiple collisions +before all its energy is absorbed. This disrupts the chemical bonds +for critically important cell structures like the cytoplasm, which +carries the cell's genetic blueprints, and also produces chemical +constituents which can cause as much damage as the original ionizing +radiation. +</P> + +<P> +For convenience, a unit of radiation dose called the "rad" has been +adopted. It measures the amount of ionization produced per unit volume +by the particles from radioactive decay. +</P> + +<BR><BR><BR> + +<A NAME="note4"></A> +<H3> +Note 4: Nuclear Half-Life +</H3> + +<P> +The concept of "half-life" is basic to an understanding of radioactive +decay of unstable nuclei. +</P> + +<P> +Unlike physical "systems"--bacteria, animals, men and stars--unstable +isotopes do not individually have a predictable life span. There is no +way of forecasting when a single unstable nucleus will decay. +</P> + +<P> +Nevertheless, it is possible to get around the random behavior of an +individual nucleus by dealing statistically with large numbers of +nuclei of a particular radioactive isotope. In the case of +thorium-232, for example, radioactive decay proceeds so slowly that 14 +billion years must elapse before one-half of an initial quantity +decayed to a more stable configuration. Thus the half-life of this +isotope is 14 billion years. After the elapse of second half-life +(another 14 billion years), only one-fourth of the original quantity of +thorium-232 would remain, one eighth after the third half-life, and so +on. +</P> + +<P> +Most manmade radioactive isotopes have much shorter half-lives, ranging +from seconds or days up to thousands of years. Plutonium-239 (a +manmade isotope) has a half-life of 24,000 years. +</P> + +<P> +For the most common uranium isotope, U-238, the half-life is 4.5 +billion years, about the age of the solar system. The much scarcer, +fissionable isotope of uranium, U-235, has a half-life of 700 million +years, indicating that its present abundance is only about 1 percent of +the amount present when the solar system was born. +</P> + +<BR><BR><BR> + +<A NAME="note5"></A> +<H3> +Note 5: Oxygen, Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation +</H3> + +<P> +Oxygen, vital to breathing creatures, constitutes about one-fifth of +the earth's atmosphere. It occasionally occurs as a single atom in the +atmosphere at high temperature, but it usually combines with a second +oxygen atom to form molecular oxygen (O2). The oxygen in the air we +breathe consists primarily of this stable form. +</P> + +<P> +Oxygen has also a third chemical form in which three oxygen atoms are +bound together in a single molecule (03), called ozone. Though less +stable and far more rare than O2, and principally confined to upper +levels of the stratosphere, both molecular oxygen and ozone play a +vital role in shielding the earth from harmful components of solar +radiation. +</P> + +<P> +Most harmful radiation is in the "ultraviolet" region of the solar +spectrum, invisible to the eye at short wavelengths (under 3,000 A). +(An angstrom unit--A--is an exceedingly short unit of length--10 +billionths of a centimeter, or about 4 billionths of an inch.) Unlike +X-rays, ultraviolet photons are not "hard" enough to ionize atoms, but +pack enough energy to break down the chemical bonds of molecules in +living cells and produce a variety of biological and genetic +abnormalities, including tumors and cancers. +</P> + +<P> +Fortunately, because of the earth's atmosphere, only a trace of this +dangerous ultraviolet radiation actually reaches the earth. By the +time sunlight reaches the top of the stratosphere, at about 30 miles +altitude, almost all the radiation shorter than 1,900 A has been +absorbed by molecules of nitrogen and oxygen. Within the stratosphere +itself, molecular oxygen (02) absorbs the longer wavelengths of +ultraviolet, up to 2,420 A; and ozone (O3) is formed as a result of +this absorption process. It is this ozone then which absorbs almost all +of the remaining ultraviolet wavelengths up to about 3,000 A, so that +almost all of the dangerous solar radiation is cut off before it +reaches the earth's surface. +</P> + +<BR><BR><BR><BR> + + + + + + + + +<pre> + + + + + +End of the Project Gutenberg EBook of Worldwide Effects of Nuclear War: Some +Perspectives, by United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency + +*** END OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK WORLDWIDE EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR WAR *** + +***** This file should be named 684-h.htm or 684-h.zip ***** +This and all associated files of various formats will be found in: + https://www.gutenberg.org/6/8/684/ + +Produced by Gregory Walker + +Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions +will be renamed. + +Creating the works from public domain print editions means that no +one owns a United States copyright in these works, so the Foundation +(and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United States without +permission and without paying copyright royalties. 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You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + + +Title: Worldwide Effects of Nuclear War: Some Perspectives + +Author: United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency + +Posting Date: August 12, 2008 [EBook #684] +Release Date: October, 1996 + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: ASCII + +*** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK WORLDWIDE EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR WAR *** + + + + +Produced by Gregory Walker + + + + + + + + + +For an HTML version of this document and additional public domain +documents on nuclear history, visit Trinity Atomic Web Site: +http://www.envirolink.org/issues/nuketesting/ + + + + + +WORLDWIDE EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR WAR - - - SOME PERSPECTIVES + +U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, 1975. + + + +CONTENTS + + + Foreword + Introduction + The Mechanics of Nuclear Explosions + Radioactive Fallout + A. Local Fallout + B. Worldwide Effects of Fallout + Alterations of the Global Environment + A. High Altitude Dust + B. Ozone + Some Conclusions + + Note 1: Nuclear Weapons Yield + Note 2: Nuclear Weapons Design + Note 3: Radioactivity + Note 4: Nuclear Half-Life + Note 5: Oxygen, Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation + + + +FOREWORD + +Much research has been devoted to the effects of nuclear weapons. But +studies have been concerned for the most part with those immediate +consequences which would be suffered by a country that was the direct +target of nuclear attack. Relatively few studies have examined the +worldwide, long term effects. + +Realistic and responsible arms control policy calls for our knowing +more about these wider effects and for making this knowledge available +to the public. To learn more about them, the Arms Control and +Disarmament Agency (ACDA) has initiated a number of projects, including +a National Academy of Sciences study, requested in April 1974. The +Academy's study, Long-Term Worldwide Effects of Multiple Nuclear +Weapons Detonations, a highly technical document of more than 200 +pages, is now available. The present brief publication seeks to +include its essential findings, along with the results of related +studies of this Agency, and to provide as well the basic background +facts necessary for informed perspectives on the issue. + +New discoveries have been made, yet much uncertainty inevitably +persists. Our knowledge of nuclear warfare rests largely on theory and +hypothesis, fortunately untested by the usual processes of trial and +error; the paramount goal of statesmanship is that we should never +learn from the experience of nuclear war. + +The uncertainties that remain are of such magnitude that of themselves +they must serve as a further deterrent to the use of nuclear weapons. +At the same time, knowledge, even fragmentary knowledge, of the broader +effects of nuclear weapons underlines the extreme difficulty that +strategic planners of any nation would face in attempting to predict +the results of a nuclear war. Uncertainty is one of the major +conclusions in our studies, as the haphazard and unpredicted derivation +of many of our discoveries emphasizes. Moreover, it now appears that a +massive attack with many large-scale nuclear detonations could cause +such widespread and long-lasting environmental damage that the +aggressor country might suffer serious physiological, economic, and +environmental effects even without a nuclear response by the country +attacked. + +An effort has been made to present this paper in language that does not +require a scientific background on the part of the reader. +Nevertheless it must deal in schematized processes, abstractions, and +statistical generalizations. Hence one supremely important perspective +must be largely supplied by the reader: the human perspective--the +meaning of these physical effects for individual human beings and for +the fabric of civilized life. + + Fred C. Ikle + Director + U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency + + + +INTRODUCTION + +It has now been two decades since the introduction of thermonuclear +fusion weapons into the military inventories of the great powers, and +more than a decade since the United States, Great Britain, and the +Soviet Union ceased to test nuclear weapons in the atmosphere. Today +our understanding of the technology of thermonuclear weapons seems +highly advanced, but our knowledge of the physical and biological +consequences of nuclear war is continuously evolving. + +Only recently, new light was shed on the subject in a study which the +Arms Control and Disarmament Agency had asked the National Academy of +Sciences to undertake. Previous studies had tended to focus very +largely on radioactive fallout from a nuclear war; an important aspect +of this new study was its inquiry into all possible consequences, +including the effects of large-scale nuclear detonations on the ozone +layer which helps protect life on earth from the sun's ultraviolet +radiations. Assuming a total detonation of 10,000 megatons--a +large-scale but less than total nuclear "exchange," as one would say in +the dehumanizing jargon of the strategists--it was concluded that as +much as 30-70 percent of the ozone might be eliminated from the +northern hemisphere (where a nuclear war would presumably take place) +and as much as 20-40 percent from the southern hemisphere. Recovery +would probably take about 3-10 years, but the Academy's study notes +that long term global changes cannot be completely ruled out. + +The reduced ozone concentrations would have a number of consequences +outside the areas in which the detonations occurred. The Academy study +notes, for example, that the resultant increase in ultraviolet would +cause "prompt incapacitating cases of sunburn in the temperate zones +and snow blindness in northern countries . . ." + +Strange though it might seem, the increased ultraviolet radiation could +also be accompanied by a drop in the average temperature. The size of +the change is open to question, but the largest changes would probably +occur at the higher latitudes, where crop production and ecological +balances are sensitively dependent on the number of frost-free days and +other factors related to average temperature. The Academy's study +concluded that ozone changes due to nuclear war might decrease global +surface temperatures by only negligible amounts or by as much as a few +degrees. To calibrate the significance of this, the study mentioned +that a cooling of even 1 degree centigrade would eliminate commercial +wheat growing in Canada. + +Thus, the possibility of a serious increase in ultraviolet radiation +has been added to widespread radioactive fallout as a fearsome +consequence of the large-scale use of nuclear weapons. And it is +likely that we must reckon with still other complex and subtle +processes, global in scope, which could seriously threaten the health +of distant populations in the event of an all-out nuclear war. + +Up to now, many of the important discoveries about nuclear weapon +effects have been made not through deliberate scientific inquiry but by +accident. And as the following historical examples show, there has been +a series of surprises. + +"Castle/Bravo" was the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated by the +United States. Before it was set off at Bikini on February 28, 1954, +it was expected to explode with an energy equivalent of about 8 million +tons of TNT. Actually, it produced almost twice that explosive +power--equivalent to 15 million tons of TNT. + +If the power of the bomb was unexpected, so were the after-effects. +About 6 hours after the explosion, a fine, sandy ash began to sprinkle +the Japanese fishing vessel Lucky Dragon, some 90 miles downwind of the +burst point, and Rongelap Atoll, 100 miles downwind. Though 40 to 50 +miles away from the proscribed test area, the vessel's crew and the +islanders received heavy doses of radiation from the weapon's +"fallout"--the coral rock, soil, and other debris sucked up in the +fireball and made intensively radioactive by the nuclear reaction. One +radioactive isotope in the fallout, iodine-131, rapidly built up to +serious concentration in the thyroid glands of the victims, +particularly young Rongelapese children. + +More than any other event in the decade of testing large nuclear +weapons in the atmosphere, Castle/Bravo's unexpected contamination of +7,000 square miles of the Pacific Ocean dramatically illustrated how +large-scale nuclear war could produce casualties on a colossal scale, +far beyond the local effects of blast and fire alone. + +A number of other surprises were encountered during 30 years of nuclear +weapons development. For example, what was probably man's most +extensive modification of the global environment to date occurred in +September 1962, when a nuclear device was detonated 250 miles above +Johnson Island. The 1.4-megaton burst produced an artificial belt of +charged particles trapped in the earth's magnetic field. Though 98 +percent of these particles were removed by natural processes after the +first year, traces could be detected 6 or 7 years later. A number of +satellites in low earth orbit at the time of the burst suffered severe +electronic damage resulting in malfunctions and early failure. It +became obvious that man now had the power to make long term changes in +his near-space environment. + +Another unexpected effect of high-altitude bursts was the blackout of +high-frequency radio communications. Disruption of the ionosphere +(which reflects radio signals back to the earth) by nuclear bursts over +the Pacific has wiped out long-distance radio communications for hours +at distances of up to 600 miles from the burst point. + +Yet another surprise was the discovery that electromagnetic pulses can +play havoc with electrical equipment itself, including some in command +systems that control the nuclear arms themselves. + +Much of our knowledge was thus gained by chance--a fact which should +imbue us with humility as we contemplate the remaining uncertainties +(as well as the certainties) about nuclear warfare. What we have +learned enables us, nonetheless, to see more clearly. We know, for +instance, that some of the earlier speculations about the after-effects +of a global nuclear war were as far-fetched as they were +horrifying--such as the idea that the worldwide accumulation of +radioactive fallout would eliminate all life on the planet, or that it +might produce a train of monstrous genetic mutations in all living +things, making future life unrecognizable. And this accumulation of +knowledge which enables us to rule out the more fanciful possibilities +also allows us to reexamine, with some scientific rigor, other +phenomena which could seriously affect the global environment and the +populations of participant and nonparticipant countries alike. + +This paper is an attempt to set in perspective some of the longer term +effects of nuclear war on the global environment, with emphasis on +areas and peoples distant from the actual targets of the weapons. + + + +THE MECHANICS OF NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS + +In nuclear explosions, about 90 percent of the energy is released in +less than one millionth of a second. Most of this is in the form of +the heat and shock waves which produce the damage. It is this +immediate and direct explosive power which could devastate the urban +centers in a major nuclear war. + +Compared with the immediate colossal destruction suffered in target +areas, the more subtle, longer term effects of the remaining 10 percent +of the energy released by nuclear weapons might seem a matter of +secondary concern. But the dimensions of the initial catastrophe +should not overshadow the after-effects of a nuclear war. They would +be global, affecting nations remote from the fighting for many years +after the holocaust, because of the way nuclear explosions behave in +the atmosphere and the radioactive products released by nuclear bursts. + +When a weapon is detonated at the surface of the earth or at low +altitudes, the heat pulse vaporizes the bomb material, target, nearby +structures, and underlying soil and rock, all of which become entrained +in an expanding, fast-rising fireball. As the fireball rises, it +expands and cools, producing the distinctive mushroom cloud, signature +of nuclear explosions. + +The altitude reached by the cloud depends on the force of the +explosion. When yields are in the low-kiloton range, the cloud will +remain in the lower atmosphere and its effects will be entirely local. +But as yields exceed 30 kilotons, part of the cloud will punch into the +stratosphere, which begins about 7 miles up. With yields of 2-5 +megatons or more, virtually all of the cloud of radioactive debris and +fine dust will climb into the stratosphere. The heavier materials +reaching the lower edge of the stratosphere will soon settle out, as +did the Castle/Bravo fallout at Rongelap. But the lighter particles +will penetrate high into the stratosphere, to altitudes of 12 miles and +more, and remain there for months and even years. Stratospheric +circulation and diffusion will spread this material around the world. + + + +RADIOACTIVE FALLOUT + +Both the local and worldwide fallout hazards of nuclear explosions +depend on a variety of interacting factors: weapon design, explosive +force, altitude and latitude of detonation, time of year, and local +weather conditions. + +All present nuclear weapon designs require the splitting of heavy +elements like uranium and plutonium. The energy released in this +fission process is many millions of times greater, pound for pound, +than the most energetic chemical reactions. The smaller nuclear +weapon, in the low-kiloton range, may rely solely on the energy +released by the fission process, as did the first bombs which +devastated Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The larger yield nuclear +weapons derive a substantial part of their explosive force from the +fusion of heavy forms of hydrogen--deuterium and tritium. Since there +is virtually no limitation on the volume of fusion materials in a +weapon, and the materials are less costly than fissionable materials, +the fusion, "thermonuclear," or "hydrogen" bomb brought a radical +increase in the explosive power of weapons. However, the fission +process is still necessary to achieve the high temperatures and +pressures needed to trigger the hydrogen fusion reactions. Thus, all +nuclear detonations produce radioactive fragments of heavy elements +fission, with the larger bursts producing an additional radiation +component from the fusion process. + +The nuclear fragments of heavy-element fission which are of greatest +concern are those radioactive atoms (also called radionuclides) which +decay by emitting energetic electrons or gamma particles. (See +"Radioactivity" note.) An important characteristic here is the rate of +decay. This is measured in terms of "half-life"--the time required for +one-half of the original substance to decay--which ranges from days to +thousands of years for the bomb-produced radionuclides of principal +interest. (See "Nuclear Half-Life" note.) Another factor which is +critical in determining the hazard of radionuclides is the chemistry of +the atoms. This determines whether they will be taken up by the body +through respiration or the food cycle and incorporated into tissue. If +this occurs, the risk of biological damage from the destructive +ionizing radiation (see "Radioactivity" note) is multiplied. + +Probably the most serious threat is cesium-137, a gamma emitter with a +half-life of 30 years. It is a major source of radiation in nuclear +fallout, and since it parallels potassium chemistry, it is readily +taken into the blood of animals and men and may be incorporated into +tissue. + +Other hazards are strontium-90, an electron emitter with a half-life of +28 years, and iodine-131 with a half-life of only 8 days. Strontium-90 +follows calcium chemistry, so that it is readily incorporated into the +bones and teeth, particularly of young children who have received milk +from cows consuming contaminated forage. Iodine-131 is a similar +threat to infants and children because of its concentration in the +thyroid gland. In addition, there is plutonium-239, frequently used in +nuclear explosives. A bone-seeker like strontium-90, it may also become +lodged in the lungs, where its intense local radiation can cause cancer +or other damage. Plutonium-239 decays through emission of an alpha +particle (helium nucleus) and has a half-life of 24,000 years. + +To the extent that hydrogen fusion contributes to the explosive force +of a weapon, two other radionuclides will be released: tritium +(hydrogen-3), an electron emitter with a half-life of 12 years, and +carbon-14, an electron emitter with a half-life of 5,730 years. Both +are taken up through the food cycle and readily incorporated in organic +matter. + +Three types of radiation damage may occur: bodily damage (mainly +leukemia and cancers of the thyroid, lung, breast, bone, and +gastrointestinal tract); genetic damage (birth defects and +constitutional and degenerative diseases due to gonodal damage suffered +by parents); and development and growth damage (primarily growth and +mental retardation of unborn infants and young children). Since heavy +radiation doses of about 20 roentgen or more (see "Radioactivity" note) +are necessary to produce developmental defects, these effects would +probably be confined to areas of heavy local fallout in the nuclear +combatant nations and would not become a global problem. + + +A. Local Fallout + +Most of the radiation hazard from nuclear bursts comes from short-lived +radionuclides external to the body; these are generally confined to the +locality downwind of the weapon burst point. This radiation hazard +comes from radioactive fission fragments with half-lives of seconds to +a few months, and from soil and other materials in the vicinity of the +burst made radioactive by the intense neutron flux of the fission and +fusion reactions. + +It has been estimated that a weapon with a fission yield of 1 million +tons TNT equivalent power (1 megaton) exploded at ground level in a 15 +miles-per-hour wind would produce fallout in an ellipse extending +hundreds of miles downwind from the burst point. At a distance of +20-25 miles downwind, a lethal radiation dose (600 rads) would be +accumulated by a person who did not find shelter within 25 minutes +after the time the fallout began. At a distance of 40-45 miles, a +person would have at most 3 hours after the fallout began to find +shelter. Considerably smaller radiation doses will make people +seriously ill. Thus, the survival prospects of persons immediately +downwind of the burst point would be slim unless they could be +sheltered or evacuated. + +It has been estimated that an attack on U.S. population centers by 100 +weapons of one-megaton fission yield would kill up to 20 percent of the +population immediately through blast, heat, ground shock and instant +radiation effects (neutrons and gamma rays); an attack with 1,000 such +weapons would destroy immediately almost half the U.S. population. +These figures do not include additional deaths from fires, lack of +medical attention, starvation, or the lethal fallout showering to the +ground downwind of the burst points of the weapons. + +Most of the bomb-produced radionuclides decay rapidly. Even so, beyond +the blast radius of the exploding weapons there would be areas ("hot +spots") the survivors could not enter because of radioactive +contamination from long-lived radioactive isotopes like strontium-90 or +cesium-137, which can be concentrated through the food chain and +incorporated into the body. The damage caused would be internal, with +the injurious effects appearing over many years. For the survivors of +a nuclear war, this lingering radiation hazard could represent a grave +threat for as long as 1 to 5 years after the attack. + + +B. Worldwide Effects of Fallout + +Much of our knowledge of the production and distribution of +radionuclides has been derived from the period of intensive nuclear +testing in the atmosphere during the 1950's and early 1960's. It is +estimated that more than 500 megatons of nuclear yield were detonated +in the atmosphere between 1945 and 1971, about half of this yield being +produced by a fission reaction. The peak occurred in 1961-62, when a +total of 340 megatons were detonated in the atmosphere by the United +States and Soviet Union. The limited nuclear test ban treaty of 1963 +ended atmospheric testing for the United States, Britain, and the +Soviet Union, but two major non-signatories, France and China, +continued nuclear testing at the rate of about 5 megatons annually. +(France now conducts its nuclear tests underground.) + +A U.N. scientific committee has estimated that the cumulative per +capita dose to the world's population up to the year 2000 as a result +of atmospheric testing through 1970 (cutoff date of the study) will be +the equivalent of 2 years' exposure to natural background radiation on +the earth's surface. For the bulk of the world's population, internal +and external radiation doses of natural origin amount to less than +one-tenth rad annually. Thus nuclear testing to date does not appear +to pose a severe radiation threat in global terms. But a nuclear war +releasing 10 or 100 times the total yield of all previous weapons tests +could pose a far greater worldwide threat. + +The biological effects of all forms of ionizing radiation have been +calculated within broad ranges by the National Academy of Sciences. +Based on these calculations, fallout from the 500-plus megatons of +nuclear testing through 1970 will produce between 2 and 25 cases of +genetic disease per million live births in the next generation. This +means that between 3 and 50 persons per billion births in the +post-testing generation will have genetic damage for each megaton of +nuclear yield exploded. With similar uncertainty, it is possible to +estimate that the induction of cancers would range from 75 to 300 cases +per megaton for each billion people in the post-test generation. + +If we apply these very rough yardsticks to a large-scale nuclear war in +which 10,000 megatons of nuclear force are detonated, the effects on a +world population of 5 billion appear enormous. Allowing for +uncertainties about the dynamics of a possible nuclear war, +radiation-induced cancers and genetic damage together over 30 years are +estimated to range from 1.5 to 30 million for the world population as a +whole. This would mean one additional case for every 100 to 3,000 +people or about 1/2 percent to 15 percent of the estimated peacetime +cancer death rate in developed countries. As will be seen, moreover, +there could be other, less well understood effects which would +drastically increase suffering and death. + + + +ALTERATIONS OF THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT + +A nuclear war would involve such prodigious and concentrated short term +release of high temperature energy that it is necessary to consider a +variety of potential environmental effects. + +It is true that the energy of nuclear weapons is dwarfed by many +natural phenomena. A large hurricane may have the power of a million +hydrogen bombs. But the energy release of even the most severe weather +is diffuse; it occurs over wide areas, and the difference in +temperature between the storm system and the surrounding atmosphere is +relatively small. Nuclear detonations are just the opposite--highly +concentrated with reaction temperatures up to tens of millions of +degrees Fahrenheit. Because they are so different from natural +processes, it is necessary to examine their potential for altering the +environment in several contexts. + + +A. High Altitude Dust + +It has been estimated that a 10,000-megaton war with half the weapons +exploding at ground level would tear up some 25 billion cubic meters of +rock and soil, injecting a substantial amount of fine dust and +particles into the stratosphere. This is roughly twice the volume of +material blasted loose by the Indonesian volcano, Krakatoa, whose +explosion in 1883 was the most powerful terrestrial event ever +recorded. Sunsets around the world were noticeably reddened for +several years after the Krakatoa eruption, indicating that large +amounts of volcanic dust had entered the stratosphere. + +Subsequent studies of large volcanic explosions, such as Mt. Agung on +Bali in 1963, have raised the possibility that large-scale injection of +dust into the stratosphere would reduce sunlight intensities and +temperatures at the surface, while increasing the absorption of heat in +the upper atmosphere. + +The resultant minor changes in temperature and sunlight could affect +crop production. However, no catastrophic worldwide changes have +resulted from volcanic explosions, so it is doubtful that the gross +injection of particulates into the stratosphere by a 10,000-megaton +conflict would, by itself, lead to major global climate changes. + + +B. Ozone + +More worrisome is the possible effect of nuclear explosions on ozone in +the stratosphere. Not until the 20th century was the unique and +paradoxical role of ozone fully recognized. On the other hand, in +concentrations greater than I part per million in the air we breathe, +ozone is toxic; one major American city, Los Angeles, has established a +procedure for ozone alerts and warnings. On the other hand, ozone is a +critically important feature of the stratosphere from the standpoint of +maintaining life on the earth. + +The reason is that while oxygen and nitrogen in the upper reaches of +the atmosphere can block out solar ultraviolet photons with wavelengths +shorter than 2,420 angstroms (A), ozone is the only effective shield in +the atmosphere against solar ultraviolet radiation between 2,500 and +3,000 A in wavelength. (See note 5.) Although ozone is extremely +efficient at filtering out solar ultraviolet in 2,500-3,000 A region of +the spectrum, some does get through at the higher end of the spectrum. +Ultraviolet rays in the range of 2,800 to 3,200 A which cause sunburn, +prematurely age human skin and produce skin cancers. As early as 1840, +arctic snow blindness was attributed to solar ultraviolet; and we have +since found that intense ultraviolet radiation can inhibit +photosynthesis in plants, stunt plant growth, damage bacteria, fungi, +higher plants, insects and annuals, and produce genetic alterations. + +Despite the important role ozone plays in assuring a liveable +environment at the earth's surface, the total quantity of ozone in the +atmosphere is quite small, only about 3 parts per million. +Furthermore, ozone is not a durable or static constituent of the +atmosphere. It is constantly created, destroyed, and recreated by +natural processes, so that the amount of ozone present at any given +time is a function of the equilibrium reached between the creative and +destructive chemical reactions and the solar radiation reaching the +upper stratosphere. + +The mechanism for the production of ozone is the absorption by oxygen +molecules (O2) of relatively short-wavelength ultraviolet light. The +oxygen molecule separates into two atoms of free oxygen, which +immediately unite with other oxygen molecules on the surfaces of +particles in the upper atmosphere. It is this union which forms ozone, +or O3. The heat released by the ozone-forming process is the reason +for the curious increase with altitude of the temperature of the +stratosphere (the base of which is about 36,000 feet above the earth's +surface). + +While the natural chemical reaction produces about 4,500 tons of ozone +per second in the stratosphere, this is offset by other natural +chemical reactions which break down the ozone. By far the most +significant involves nitric oxide (NO) which breaks ozone (O3) into +molecules. This effect was discovered only in the last few years in +studies of the environmental problems which might be encountered if +large fleets of supersonic transport aircraft operate routinely in the +lower stratosphere. According to a report by Dr. Harold S. Johnston, +University of California at Berkeley--prepared for the Department of +Transportation's Climatic Impact Assessment Program--it now appears +that the NO reaction is normally responsible for 50 to 70 percent of +the destruction of ozone. + +In the natural environment, there is a variety of means for the +production of NO and its transport into the stratosphere. Soil +bacteria produce nitrous oxide (N2O) which enters the lower atmosphere +and slowly diffuses into the stratosphere, where it reacts with free +oxygen (O) to form two NO molecules. Another mechanism for NO +production in the lower atmosphere may be lightning discharges, and +while NO is quickly washed out of the lower atmosphere by rain, some of +it may reach the stratosphere. Additional amounts of NO are produced +directly in the stratosphere by cosmic rays from the sun and +interstellar sources. + +It is because of this catalytic role which nitric oxide plays in the +destruction of ozone that it is important to consider the effects of +high-yield nuclear explosions on the ozone layer. The nuclear fireball +and the air entrained within it are subjected to great heat, followed +by relatively rapid cooling. These conditions are ideal for the +production of tremendous amounts of NO from the air. It has been +estimated that as much as 5,000 tons of nitric oxide is produced for +each megaton of nuclear explosive power. + +What would be the effects of nitric oxides driven into the stratosphere +by an all-out nuclear war, involving the detonation of 10,000 megatons +of explosive force in the northern hemisphere? According to the recent +National Academy of Sciences study, the nitric oxide produced by the +weapons could reduce the ozone levels in the northern hemisphere by as +much as 30 to 70 percent. + +To begin with, a depleted ozone layer would reflect back to the earth's +surface less heat than would normally be the case, thus causing a drop +in temperature--perhaps enough to produce serious effects on +agriculture. Other changes, such as increased amounts of dust or +different vegetation, might subsequently reverse this drop in +temperature--but on the other hand, it might increase it. + +Probably more important, life on earth has largely evolved within the +protective ozone shield and is presently adapted rather precisely to +the amount of solar ultraviolet which does get through. To defend +themselves against this low level of ultraviolet, evolved external +shielding (feathers, fur, cuticular waxes on fruit), internal shielding +(melanin pigment in human skin, flavenoids in plant tissue), avoidance +strategies (plankton migration to greater depths in the daytime, +shade-seeking by desert iguanas) and, in almost all organisms but +placental mammals, elaborate mechanisms to repair photochemical damage. + +It is possible, however, that a major increase in solar ultraviolet +might overwhelm the defenses of some and perhaps many terrestrial life +forms. Both direct and indirect damage would then occur among the +bacteria, insects, plants, and other links in the ecosystems on which +human well-being depends. This disruption, particularly if it occurred +in the aftermath of a major war involving many other dislocations, +could pose a serious additional threat to the recovery of postwar +society. The National Academy of Sciences report concludes that in 20 +years the ecological systems would have essentially recovered from the +increase in ultraviolet radiation--though not necessarily from +radioactivity or other damage in areas close to the war zone. However, +a delayed effect of the increase in ultraviolet radiation would be an +estimated 3 to 30 percent increase in skin cancer for 40 years in the +Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitudes. + + + +SOME CONCLUSIONS + +We have considered the problems of large-scale nuclear war from the +standpoint of the countries not under direct attack, and the +difficulties they might encounter in postwar recovery. It is true that +most of the horror and tragedy of nuclear war would be visited on the +populations subject to direct attack, who would doubtless have to cope +with extreme and perhaps insuperable obstacles in seeking to +reestablish their own societies. It is no less apparent, however, that +other nations, including those remote from the combat, could suffer +heavily because of damage to the global environment. + +Finally, at least brief mention should be made of the global effects +resulting from disruption of economic activities and communications. +Since 1970, an increasing fraction of the human race has been losing +the battle for self-sufficiency in food, and must rely on heavy +imports. A major disruption of agriculture and transportation in the +grain-exporting and manufacturing countries could thus prove disastrous +to countries importing food, farm machinery, and +fertilizers--especially those which are already struggling with the +threat of widespread starvation. Moreover, virtually every economic +area, from food and medicines to fuel and growth engendering +industries, the less-developed countries would find they could not rely +on the "undamaged" remainder of the developed world for trade +essentials: in the wake of a nuclear war the industrial powers directly +involved would themselves have to compete for resources with those +countries that today are described as "less-developed." + +Similarly, the disruption of international communications--satellites, +cables, and even high frequency radio links--could be a major obstacle +to international recovery efforts. + +In attempting to project the after-effects of a major nuclear war, we +have considered separately the various kinds of damage that could +occur. It is also quite possible, however, that interactions might +take place among these effects, so that one type of damage would couple +with another to produce new and unexpected hazards. For example, we +can assess individually the consequences of heavy worldwide radiation +fallout and increased solar ultraviolet, but we do not know whether the +two acting together might significantly increase human, animal, or +plant susceptibility to disease. We can conclude that massive dust +injection into the stratosphere, even greater in scale than Krakatoa, +is unlikely by itself to produce significant climatic and environmental +change, but we cannot rule out interactions with other phenomena, such +as ozone depletion, which might produce utterly unexpected results. + +We have come to realize that nuclear weapons can be as unpredictable as +they are deadly in their effects. Despite some 30 years of development +and study, there is still much that we do not know. This is +particularly true when we consider the global effects of a large-scale +nuclear war. + + + +Note 1: Nuclear Weapons Yield + +The most widely used standard for measuring the power of nuclear +weapons is "yield," expressed as the quantity of chemical explosive +(TNT) that would produce the same energy release. The first atomic +weapon which leveled Hiroshima in 1945, had a yield of 13 kilotons; +that is, the explosive power of 13,000 tons of TNT. (The largest +conventional bomb dropped in World War II contained about 10 tons of +TNT.) + +Since Hiroshima, the yields or explosive power of nuclear weapons have +vastly increased. The world's largest nuclear detonation, set off in +1962 by the Soviet Union, had a yield of 58 megatons--equivalent to 58 +million tons of TNT. A modern ballistic missile may carry warhead +yields up to 20 or more megatons. + +Even the most violent wars of recent history have been relatively +limited in terms of the total destructive power of the non-nuclear +weapons used. A single aircraft or ballistic missile today can carry a +nuclear explosive force surpassing that of all the non-nuclear bombs +used in recent wars. The number of nuclear bombs and missiles the +superpowers now possess runs into the thousands. + + + +Note 2: Nuclear Weapons Design + +Nuclear weapons depend on two fundamentally different types of nuclear +reactions, each of which releases energy: + +Fission, which involves the splitting of heavy elements (e.g. uranium); +and fusion, which involves the combining of light elements (e.g. +hydrogen). + +Fission requires that a minimum amount of material or "critical mass" +be brought together in contact for the nuclear explosion to take place. +The more efficient fission weapons tend to fall in the yield range of +tens of kilotons. Higher explosive yields become increasingly complex +and impractical. + +Nuclear fusion permits the design of weapons of virtually limitless +power. In fusion, according to nuclear theory, when the nuclei of light +atoms like hydrogen are joined, the mass of the fused nucleus is +lighter than the two original nuclei; the loss is expressed as energy. +By the 1930's, physicists had concluded that this was the process which +powered the sun and stars; but the nuclear fusion process remained only +of theoretical interest until it was discovered that an atomic fission +bomb might be used as a "trigger" to produce, within one- or +two-millionths of a second, the intense pressure and temperature +necessary to set off the fusion reaction. + +Fusion permits the design of weapons of almost limitless power, using +materials that are far less costly. + + + +Note 3: Radioactivity + +Most familiar natural elements like hydrogen, oxygen, gold, and lead +are stable, and enduring unless acted upon by outside forces. But +almost all elements can exist in unstable forms. The nuclei of these +unstable "isotopes," as they are called, are "uncomfortable" with the +particular mixture of nuclear particles comprising them, and they +decrease this internal stress through the process of radioactive decay. + +The three basic modes of radioactive decay are the emission of alpha, +beta and gamma radiation: + +Alpha--Unstable nuclei frequently emit alpha particles, actually helium +nuclei consisting of two protons and two neutrons. By far the most +massive of the decay particles, it is also the slowest, rarely +exceeding one-tenth the velocity of light. As a result, its +penetrating power is weak, and it can usually be stopped by a piece of +paper. But if alpha emitters like plutonium are incorporated in the +body, they pose a serious cancer threat. + +Beta--Another form of radioactive decay is the emission of a beta +particle, or electron. The beta particle has only about one +seven-thousandth the mass of the alpha particle, but its velocity is +very much greater, as much as eight-tenths the velocity of light. As a +result, beta particles can penetrate far more deeply into bodily tissue +and external doses of beta radiation represent a significantly greater +threat than the slower, heavier alpha particles. Beta-emitting +isotopes are as harmful as alpha emitters if taken up by the body. + +Gamma--In some decay processes, the emission is a photon having no mass +at all and traveling at the speed of light. Radio waves, visible +light, radiant heat, and X-rays are all photons, differing only in the +energy level each carries. The gamma ray is similar to the X-ray +photon, but far more penetrating (it can traverse several inches of +concrete). It is capable of doing great damage in the body. + +Common to all three types of nuclear decay radiation is their ability +to ionize (i.e., unbalance electrically) the neutral atoms through +which they pass, that is, give them a net electrical charge. The alpha +particle, carrying a positive electrical charge, pulls electrons from +the atoms through which it passes, while negatively charged beta +particles can push electrons out of neutral atoms. If energetic betas +pass sufficiently close to atomic nuclei, they can produce X-rays which +themselves can ionize additional neutral atoms. Massless but energetic +gamma rays can knock electrons out of neutral atoms in the same fashion +as X-rays, leaving them ionized. A single particle of radiation can +ionize hundreds of neutral atoms in the tissue in multiple collisions +before all its energy is absorbed. This disrupts the chemical bonds +for critically important cell structures like the cytoplasm, which +carries the cell's genetic blueprints, and also produces chemical +constituents which can cause as much damage as the original ionizing +radiation. + +For convenience, a unit of radiation dose called the "rad" has been +adopted. It measures the amount of ionization produced per unit volume +by the particles from radioactive decay. + + + +Note 4: Nuclear Half-Life + +The concept of "half-life" is basic to an understanding of radioactive +decay of unstable nuclei. + +Unlike physical "systems"--bacteria, animals, men and stars--unstable +isotopes do not individually have a predictable life span. There is no +way of forecasting when a single unstable nucleus will decay. + +Nevertheless, it is possible to get around the random behavior of an +individual nucleus by dealing statistically with large numbers of +nuclei of a particular radioactive isotope. In the case of +thorium-232, for example, radioactive decay proceeds so slowly that 14 +billion years must elapse before one-half of an initial quantity +decayed to a more stable configuration. Thus the half-life of this +isotope is 14 billion years. After the elapse of second half-life +(another 14 billion years), only one-fourth of the original quantity of +thorium-232 would remain, one eighth after the third half-life, and so +on. + +Most manmade radioactive isotopes have much shorter half-lives, ranging +from seconds or days up to thousands of years. Plutonium-239 (a +manmade isotope) has a half-life of 24,000 years. + +For the most common uranium isotope, U-238, the half-life is 4.5 +billion years, about the age of the solar system. The much scarcer, +fissionable isotope of uranium, U-235, has a half-life of 700 million +years, indicating that its present abundance is only about 1 percent of +the amount present when the solar system was born. + + + +Note 5: Oxygen, Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation + +Oxygen, vital to breathing creatures, constitutes about one-fifth of +the earth's atmosphere. It occasionally occurs as a single atom in the +atmosphere at high temperature, but it usually combines with a second +oxygen atom to form molecular oxygen (O2). The oxygen in the air we +breathe consists primarily of this stable form. + +Oxygen has also a third chemical form in which three oxygen atoms are +bound together in a single molecule (03), called ozone. Though less +stable and far more rare than O2, and principally confined to upper +levels of the stratosphere, both molecular oxygen and ozone play a +vital role in shielding the earth from harmful components of solar +radiation. + +Most harmful radiation is in the "ultraviolet" region of the solar +spectrum, invisible to the eye at short wavelengths (under 3,000 A). +(An angstrom unit--A--is an exceedingly short unit of length--10 +billionths of a centimeter, or about 4 billionths of an inch.) Unlike +X-rays, ultraviolet photons are not "hard" enough to ionize atoms, but +pack enough energy to break down the chemical bonds of molecules in +living cells and produce a variety of biological and genetic +abnormalities, including tumors and cancers. + +Fortunately, because of the earth's atmosphere, only a trace of this +dangerous ultraviolet radiation actually reaches the earth. By the +time sunlight reaches the top of the stratosphere, at about 30 miles +altitude, almost all the radiation shorter than 1,900 A has been +absorbed by molecules of nitrogen and oxygen. Within the stratosphere +itself, molecular oxygen (02) absorbs the longer wavelengths of +ultraviolet, up to 2,420 A; and ozone (O3) is formed as a result of +this absorption process. It is this ozone then which absorbs almost all +of the remaining ultraviolet wavelengths up to about 3,000 A, so that +almost all of the dangerous solar radiation is cut off before it +reaches the earth's surface. + + + + + + + + +End of the Project Gutenberg EBook of Worldwide Effects of Nuclear War: Some +Perspectives, by United States Arms Control and Disarmament Agency + +*** END OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK WORLDWIDE EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR WAR *** + +***** This file should be named 684.txt or 684.zip ***** +This and all associated files of various formats will be found in: + https://www.gutenberg.org/6/8/684/ + +Produced by Gregory Walker + +Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions +will be renamed. + +Creating the works from public domain print editions means that no +one owns a United States copyright in these works, so the Foundation +(and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United States without +permission and without paying copyright royalties. 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For an HTML +version of this document and additional public domain documents +on nuclear history, visit Trinity Atomic Web Site: +http://www.envirolink.org/issues/nuketesting/ + + + + + +WORLDWIDE EFFECTS OF NUCLEAR WAR - - - SOME PERSPECTIVES + +U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, 1975. + + + +CONTENTS + + + Foreword + Introduction + The Mechanics of Nuclear Explosions + Radioactive Fallout + A. Local Fallout + B. Worldwide Effects of Fallout + Alterations of the Global Environment + A. High Altitude Dust + B. Ozone + Some Conclusions + + Note 1: Nuclear Weapons Yield + Note 2: Nuclear Weapons Design + Note 3: Radioactivity + Note 4: Nuclear Half-Life + Note 5: Oxygen, Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation + + + +FOREWORD + + +Much research has been devoted to the effects of nuclear weapons. But +studies have been concerned for the most part with those immediate +consequences which would be suffered by a country that was the direct +target of nuclear attack. Relatively few studies have examined the +worldwide, long term effects. + +Realistic and responsible arms control policy calls for our knowing more +about these wider effects and for making this knowledge available to the +public. To learn more about them, the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency +(ACDA) has initiated a number of projects, including a National Academy of +Sciences study, requested in April 1974. The Academy's study, Long-Term +Worldwide Effects of Multiple Nuclear Weapons Detonations, a highly +technical document of more than 200 pages, is now available. The present +brief publication seeks to include its essential findings, along with the +results of related studies of this Agency, and to provide as well the basic +background facts necessary for informed perspectives on the issue. + +New discoveries have been made, yet much uncertainty inevitably persists. +Our knowledge of nuclear warfare rests largely on theory and hypothesis, +fortunately untested by the usual processes of trial and error; the +paramount goal of statesmanship is that we should never learn from the +experience of nuclear war. + +The uncertainties that remain are of such magnitude that of themselves they +must serve as a further deterrent to the use of nuclear weapons. At the +same time, knowledge, even fragmentary knowledge, of the broader effects of +nuclear weapons underlines the extreme difficulty that strategic planners +of any nation would face in attempting to predict the results of a nuclear +war. Uncertainty is one of the major conclusions in our studies, as the +haphazard and unpredicted derivation of many of our discoveries emphasizes. +Moreover, it now appears that a massive attack with many large-scale +nuclear detonations could cause such widespread and long-lasting +environmental damage that the aggressor country might suffer serious +physiological, economic, and environmental effects even without a nuclear +response by the country attacked. + +An effort has been made to present this paper in language that does not +require a scientific background on the part of the reader. Nevertheless it +must deal in schematized processes, abstractions, and statistical +generalizations. Hence one supremely important perspective must be largely +supplied by the reader: the human perspective--the meaning of these +physical effects for individual human beings and for the fabric of +civilized life. + + Fred C. Ikle + Director + U.S. Arms Control and Disarmament Agency + + + +INTRODUCTION + + +It has now been two decades since the introduction of thermonuclear fusion +weapons into the military inventories of the great powers, and more than a +decade since the United States, Great Britain, and the Soviet Union ceased +to test nuclear weapons in the atmosphere. Today our understanding of the +technology of thermonuclear weapons seems highly advanced, but our +knowledge of the physical and biological consequences of nuclear war is +continuously evolving. + +Only recently, new light was shed on the subject in a study which the Arms +Control and Disarmament Agency had asked the National Academy of Sciences +to undertake. Previous studies had tended to focus very largely on +radioactive fallout from a nuclear war; an important aspect of this new +study was its inquiry into all possible consequences, including the effects +of large-scale nuclear detonations on the ozone layer which helps protect +life on earth from the sun's ultraviolet radiations. Assuming a total +detonation of 10,000 megatons--a large-scale but less than total nuclear +"exchange," as one would say in the dehumanizing jargon of the +strategists--it was concluded that as much as 30-70 percent of the ozone +might be eliminated from the northern hemisphere (where a nuclear war would +presumably take place) and as much as 20-40 percent from the southern +hemisphere. Recovery would probably take about 3-10 years, but the +Academy's study notes that long term global changes cannot be completely +ruled out. + +The reduced ozone concentrations would have a number of consequences +outside the areas in which the detonations occurred. The Academy study +notes, for example, that the resultant increase in ultraviolet would cause +"prompt incapacitating cases of sunburn in the temperate zones and snow +blindness in northern countries . . " + +Strange though it might seem, the increased ultraviolet radiation could +also be accompanied by a drop in the average temperature. The size of the +change is open to question, but the largest changes would probably occur at +the higher latitudes, where crop production and ecological balances are +sensitively dependent on the number of frost-free days and other factors +related to average temperature. The Academy's study concluded that ozone +changes due to nuclear war might decrease global surface temperatures by +only negligible amounts or by as much as a few degrees. To calibrate the +significance of this, the study mentioned that a cooling of even 1 degree +centigrade would eliminate commercial wheat growing in Canada. + +Thus, the possibility of a serious increase in ultraviolet radiation has +been added to widespread radioactive fallout as a fearsome consequence of +the large-scale use of nuclear weapons. And it is likely that we must +reckon with still other complex and subtle processes, global in scope, +which could seriously threaten the health of distant populations in the +event of an all-out nuclear war. + +Up to now, many of the important discoveries about nuclear weapon effects +have been made not through deliberate scientific inquiry but by accident. +And as the following historical examples show, there has been a series of +surprises. + +"Castle/Bravo" was the largest nuclear weapon ever detonated by the United +States. Before it was set off at Bikini on February 28, 1954, it was +expected to explode with an energy equivalent of about 8 million tons of +TNT. Actually, it produced almost twice that explosive power--equivalent +to 15 million tons of TNT. + +If the power of the bomb was unexpected, so were the after-effects. About +6 hours after the explosion, a fine, sandy ash began to sprinkle the +Japanese fishing vessel Lucky Dragon, some 90 miles downwind of the burst +point, and Rongelap Atoll, 100 miles downwind. Though 40 to 50 miles away +from the proscribed test area, the vessel's crew and the islanders received +heavy doses of radiation from the weapon's "fallout”--the coral rock, soil, +and other debris sucked up in the fireball and made intensively radioactive +by the nuclear reaction. One radioactive isotope in the fallout, +iodine-131, rapidly built up to serious concentration in the thyroid glands +of the victims, particularly young Rongelapese children. + +More than any other event in the decade of testing large nuclear weapons in +the atmosphere, Castle/Bravo's unexpected contamination of 7,000 square +miles of the Pacific Ocean dramatically illustrated how large-scale nuclear +war could produce casualties on a colossal scale, far beyond the local +effects of blast and fire alone. + +A number of other surprises were encountered during 30 years of nuclear +weapons development. For example, what was probably man's most extensive +modification of the global environment to date occurred in September 1962, +when a nuclear device was detonated 250 miles above Johnson Island. The +1.4-megaton burst produced an artificial belt of charged particles trapped +in the earth's magnetic field. Though 98 percent of these particles were +removed by natural processes after the first year, traces could be detected +6 or 7 years later. A number of satellites in low earth orbit at the time +of the burst suffered severe electronic damage resulting in malfunctions +and early failure. It became obvious that man now had the power to make +long term changes in his near-space environment. + +Another unexpected effect of high-altitude bursts was the blackout of +high-frequency radio communications. Disruption of the ionosphere (which +reflects radio signals back to the earth) by nuclear bursts over the +Pacific has wiped out long-distance radio communications for hours at +distances of up to 600 miles from the burst point. + +Yet another surprise was the discovery that electromagnetic pulses can play +havoc with electrical equipment itself, including some in command systems +that control the nuclear arms themselves. + +Much of our knowledge was thus gained by chance--a fact which should imbue +us with humility as we contemplate the remaining uncertainties (as well as +the certainties) about nuclear warfare. What we have learned enables us, +nonetheless, to see more clearly. We know, for instance, that some of the +earlier speculations about the after-effects of a global nuclear war were +as far-fetched as they were horrifying--such as the idea that the +worldwide accumulation of radioactive fallout would eliminate all life on +the planet, or that it might produce a train of monstrous genetic mutations +in all living things, making future life unrecognizable. And this +accumulation of knowledge which enables us to rule out the more fanciful +possibilities also allows us to reexamine, with some scientific rigor, +other phenomena which could seriously affect the global environment and the +populations of participant and nonparticipant countries alike. + +This paper is an attempt to set in perspective some of the longer term +effects of nuclear war on the global environment, with emphasis on areas +and peoples distant from the actual targets of the weapons. + + + +THE MECHANICS OF NUCLEAR EXPLOSIONS + + +In nuclear explosions, about 90 percent of the energy is released in less +than one millionth of a second. Most of this is in the form of the heat +and shock waves which produce the damage. It is this immediate and direct +explosive power which could devastate the urban centers in a major nuclear +war. + +Compared with the immediate colossal destruction suffered in target areas, +the more subtle, longer term effects of the remaining 10 percent of the +energy released by nuclear weapons might seem a matter of secondary +concern. But the dimensions of the initial catastrophe should not +overshadow the after-effects of a nuclear war. They would be global, +affecting nations remote from the fighting for many years after the +holocaust, because of the way nuclear explosions behave in the atmosphere +and the radioactive products released by nuclear bursts. + +When a weapon is detonated at the surface of the earth or at low altitudes, +the heat pulse vaporizes the bomb material, target, nearby structures, and +underlying soil and rock, all of which become entrained in an expanding, +fast-rising fireball. As the fireball rises, it expands and cools, +producing the distinctive mushroom cloud, signature of nuclear explosions. + +The altitude reached by the cloud depends on the force of the explosion. +When yields are in the low-kiloton range, the cloud will remain in the +lower atmosphere and its effects will be entirely local. But as yields +exceed 30 kilotons, part of the cloud will punch into the stratosphere, +which begins about 7 miles up. With yields of 2-5 megatons or more, +virtually all of the cloud of radioactive debris and fine dust will climb +into the stratosphere. The heavier materials reaching the lower edge of +the stratosphere will soon settle out, as did the Castle/Bravo fallout at +Rongelap. But the lighter particles will penetrate high into the +stratosphere, to altitudes of 12 miles and more, and remain there for +months and even years. Stratospheric circulation and diffusion will spread +this material around the world. + + + +RADIOACTIVE FALLOUT + + +Both the local and worldwide fallout hazards of nuclear explosions depend +on a variety of interacting factors: weapon design, explosive force, +altitude and latitude of detonation, time of year, and local weather +conditions. + +All present nuclear weapon designs require the splitting of heavy elements +like uranium and plutonium. The energy released in this fission process is +many millions of times greater, pound for pound, than the most energetic +chemical reactions. The smaller nuclear weapon, in the low-kiloton range, +may rely solely on the energy released by the fission process, as did the +first bombs which devastated Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945. The larger +yield nuclear weapons derive a substantial part of their explosive force +from the fusion of heavy forms of hydrogen--deuterium and tritium. Since +there is virtually no limitation on the volume of fusion materials in a +weapon, and the materials are less costly than fissionable materials, the +fusion, "thermonuclear," or "hydrogen" bomb brought a radical increase in +the explosive power of weapons. However, the fission process is still +necessary to achieve the high temperatures and pressures needed to trigger +the hydrogen fusion reactions. Thus, all nuclear detonations produce +radioactive fragments of heavy elements fission, with the larger bursts +producing an additional radiation component from the fusion process. + +The nuclear fragments of heavy-element fission which are of greatest +concern are those radioactive atoms (also called radionuclides) which decay +by emitting energetic electrons or gamma particles. (See "Radioactivity" +note.) An important characteristic here is the rate of decay. This is +measured in terms of "half-life"--the time required for one-half of the +original substance to decay--which ranges from days to thousands of years +for the bomb-produced radionuclides of principal interest. (See "Nuclear +Half-Life" note.) Another factor which is critical in determining the +hazard of radionuclides is the chemistry of the atoms. This determines +whether they will be taken up by the body through respiration or the food +cycle and incorporated into tissue. If this occurs, the risk of biological +damage from the destructive ionizing radiation (see "Radioactivity" note) +is multiplied. + +Probably the most serious threat is cesium-137, a gamma emitter with a +half-life of 30 years. It is a major source of radiation in nuclear +fallout, and since it parallels potassium chemistry, it is readily taken +into the blood of animals and men and may be incorporated into tissue. + +Other hazards are strontium-90, an electron emitter with a half-life of 28 +years, and iodine-131 with a half-life of only 8 days. Strontium-90 +follows calcium chemistry, so that it is readily incorporated into the +bones and teeth, particularly of young children who have received milk from +cows consuming contaminated forage. Iodine-131 is a similar threat to +infants and children because of its concentration in the thyroid gland. +In addition, there is plutonium-239, frequently used in nuclear explosives. +A bone-seeker like strontium-90, it may also become lodged in the lungs, +where its intense local radiation can cause cancer or other damage. +Plutonium-239 decays through emission of an alpha particle (helium nucleus) +and has a half-life of 24,000 years. + +To the extent that hydrogen fusion contributes to the explosive force of a +weapon, two other radionuclides will be released: tritium (hydrogen-3), an +electron emitter with a half-life of 12 years, and carbon-14, an electron +emitter with a half-life of 5,730 years. Both are taken up through the +food cycle and readily incorporated in organic matter. + +Three types of radiation damage may occur: bodily damage (mainly leukemia +and cancers of the thyroid, lung, breast, bone, and gastrointestinal +tract); genetic damage (birth defects and constitutional and degenerative +diseases due to gonodal damage suffered by parents); and development and +growth damage (primarily growth and mental retardation of unborn infants +and young children). Since heavy radiation doses of about 20 roentgen or +more (see "Radioactivity" note) are necessary to produce developmental +defects, these effects would probably be confined to areas of heavy local +fallout in the nuclear combatant nations and would not become a global +problem. + + +A. Local Fallout + +Most of the radiation hazard from nuclear bursts comes from short-lived +radionuclides external to the body; these are generally confined to the +locality downwind of the weapon burst point. This radiation hazard comes +from radioactive fission fragments with half-lives of seconds to a few +months, and from soil and other materials in the vicinity of the burst made +radioactive by the intense neutron flux of the fission and fusion +reactions. + +It has been estimated that a weapon with a fission yield of 1 million tons +TNT equivalent power (1 megaton) exploded at ground level in a 15 +miles-per-hour wind would produce fallout in an ellipse extending hundreds +of miles downwind from the burst point. At a distance of 20-25 miles +downwind, a lethal radiation dose (600 rads) would be accumulated by a +person who did not find shelter within 25 minutes after the time the +fallout began. At a distance of 40-45 miles, a person would have at most 3 +hours after the fallout began to find shelter. Considerably smaller +radiation doses will make people seriously ill. Thus, the survival +prospects of persons immediately downwind of the burst point would be slim +unless they could be sheltered or evacuated. + +It has been estimated that an attack on U.S. population centers by 100 +weapons of one-megaton fission yield would kill up to 20 percent of the +population immediately through blast, heat, ground shock and instant +radiation effects (neutrons and gamma rays); an attack with 1,000 such +weapons would destroy immediately almost half the U.S. population. These +figures do not include additional deaths from fires, lack of medical +attention, starvation, or the lethal fallout showering to the ground +downwind of the burst points of the weapons. + +Most of the bomb-produced radionuclides decay rapidly. Even so, beyond the +blast radius of the exploding weapons there would be areas ("hot spots") +the survivors could not enter because of radioactive contamination from +long-lived radioactive isotopes like strontium-90 or cesium-137, which can +be concentrated through the food chain and incorporated into the body. The +damage caused would be internal, with the injurious effects appearing over +many years. For the survivors of a nuclear war, this lingering radiation +hazard could represent a grave threat for as long as 1 to 5 years after the +attack. + + +B. Worldwide Effects of Fallout + +Much of our knowledge of the production and distribution of radionuclides +has been derived from the period of intensive nuclear testing in the +atmosphere during the 1950's and early 1960's. It is estimated that more +than 500 megatons of nuclear yield were detonated in the atmosphere between +1945 and 1971, about half of this yield being produced by a fission +reaction. The peak occurred in 1961-62, when a total of 340 megatons were +detonated in the atmosphere by the United States and Soviet Union. The +limited nuclear test ban treaty of 1963 ended atmospheric testing for the +United States, Britain, and the Soviet Union, but two major +non-signatories, France and China, continued nuclear testing at the rate of +about 5 megatons annually. (France now conducts its nuclear tests +underground.) + +A U.N. scientific committee has estimated that the cumulative per capita +dose to the world's population up to the year 2000 as a result of +atmospheric testing through 1970 (cutoff date of the study) will be the +equivalent of 2 years' exposure to natural background radiation on the +earth's surface. For the bulk of the world's population, internal and +external radiation doses of natural origin amount to less than one-tenth +rad annually. Thus nuclear testing to date does not appear to pose a +severe radiation threat in global terms. But a nuclear war releasing 10 or +100 times the total yield of all previous weapons tests could pose a far +greater worldwide threat. + +The biological effects of all forms of ionizing radiation have been +calculated within broad ranges by the National Academy of Sciences. Based +on these calculations, fallout from the 500-plus megatons of nuclear +testing through 1970 will produce between 2 and 25 cases of genetic disease +per million live births in the next generation. This means that between 3 +and 50 persons per billion births in the post-testing generation will have +genetic damage for each megaton of nuclear yield exploded. With similar +uncertainty, it is possible to estimate that the induction of cancers would +range from 75 to 300 cases per megaton for each billion people in the +post-test generation. + +If we apply these very rough yardsticks to a large-scale nuclear war in +which 10,000 megatons of nuclear force are detonated, the effects on a +world population of 5 billion appear enormous. Allowing for uncertainties +about the dynamics of a possible nuclear war, radiation-induced cancers and +genetic damage together over 30 years are estimated to range from 1.5 to +30 million for the world population as a whole. This would mean one +additional case for every 100 to 3,000 people or about 1/2 percent to +15 percent of the estimated peacetime cancer death rate in developed +countries. As will be seen, moreover, there could be other, less well +understood effects which would drastically increase suffering and death. + + + +ALTERATIONS OF THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT + + +A nuclear war would involve such prodigious and concentrated short term +release of high temperature energy that it is necessary to consider a +variety of potential environmental effects. + +It is true that the energy of nuclear weapons is dwarfed by many natural +phenomena. A large hurricane may have the power of a million hydrogen +bombs. But the energy release of even the most severe weather is diffuse; +it occurs over wide areas, and the difference in temperature between the +storm system and the surrounding atmosphere is relatively small. Nuclear +detonations are just the opposite--highly concentrated with reaction +temperatures up to tens of millions of degrees Fahrenheit. Because they +are so different from natural processes, it is necessary to examine their +potential for altering the environment in several contexts. + + +A. High Altitude Dust + +It has been estimated that a 10,000-megaton war with half the weapons +exploding at ground level would tear up some 25 billion cubic meters of +rock and soil, injecting a substantial amount of fine dust and particles +into the stratosphere. This is roughly twice the volume of material +blasted loose by the Indonesian volcano, Krakatoa, whose explosion in 1883 +was the most powerful terrestrial event ever recorded. Sunsets around the +world were noticeably reddened for several years after the Krakatoa +eruption, indicating that large amounts of volcanic dust had entered the +stratosphere. + +Subsequent studies of large volcanic explosions, such as Mt. Agung on Bali +in 1963, have raised the possibility that large-scale injection of dust +into the stratosphere would reduce sunlight intensities and temperatures at +the surface, while increasing the absorption of heat in the upper +atmosphere. + +The resultant minor changes in temperature and sunlight could affect crop +production. However, no catastrophic worldwide changes have resulted from +volcanic explosions, so it is doubtful that the gross injection of +particulates into the stratosphere by a 10,000-megaton conflict would, by +itself, lead to major global climate changes. + + +B. Ozone + +More worrisome is the possible effect of nuclear explosions on ozone in the +stratosphere. Not until the 20th century was the unique and paradoxical +role of ozone fully recognized. On the other hand, in concentrations +greater than I part per million in the air we breathe, ozone is toxic; one +major American city, Los Angeles, has established a procedure for ozone +alerts and warnings. On the other hand, ozone is a critically important +feature of the stratosphere from the standpoint of maintaining life on the +earth. + +The reason is that while oxygen and nitrogen in the upper reaches of the +atmosphere can block out solar ultraviolet photons with wavelengths shorter +than 2,420 angstroms (A), ozone is the only effective shield in the +atmosphere against solar ultraviolet radiation between 2,500 and 3,000 A in +wavelength. (See note 5.) Although ozone is extremely efficient at +filtering out solar ultraviolet in 2,500-3,OOO A region of the spectrum, +some does get through at the higher end of the spectrum. Ultraviolet rays +in the range of 2,800 to 3,200 A which cause sunburn, prematurely age human +skin and produce skin cancers. As early as 1840, arctic snow blindness was +attributed to solar ultraviolet; and we have since found that intense +ultraviolet radiation can inhibit photosynthesis in plants, stunt plant +growth, damage bacteria, fungi, higher plants, insects and annuals, and +produce genetic alterations. + +Despite the important role ozone plays in assuring a liveable environment +at the earth's surface, the total quantity of ozone in the atmosphere is +quite small, only about 3 parts per million. Furthermore, ozone is not a +durable or static constituent of the atmosphere. It is constantly created, +destroyed, and recreated by natural processes, so that the amount of ozone +present at any given time is a function of the equilibrium reached between +the creative and destructive chemical reactions and the solar radiation +reaching the upper stratosphere. + +The mechanism for the production of ozone is the absorption by oxygen +molecules (O2) of relatively short-wavelength ultraviolet light. The +oxygen molecule separates into two atoms of free oxygen, which immediately +unite with other oxygen molecules on the surfaces of particles in the upper +atmosphere. It is this union which forms ozone, or O3. The heat released +by the ozone-forming process is the reason for the curious increase with +altitude of the temperature of the stratosphere (the base of which is about +36,000 feet above the earth's surface). + +While the natural chemical reaction produces about 4,500 tons of ozone per +second in the stratosphere, this is offset by other natural chemical +reactions which break down the ozone. By far the most significant involves +nitric oxide (NO) which breaks ozone (O3) into molecules. This effect was +discovered only in the last few years in studies of the environmental +problems which might be encountered if large fleets of supersonic transport +aircraft operate routinely in the lower stratosphere. According to a +report by Dr. Harold S. Johnston, University of California at Berkeley-- +prepared for the Department of Transportation's Climatic Impact +Assessment Program--it now appears that the NO reaction is normally +responsible for 50 to 70 percent of the destruction of ozone. + +In the natural environment, there is a variety of means for the production +of NO and its transport into the stratosphere. Soil bacteria produce +nitrous oxide (N2O) which enters the lower atmosphere and slowly diffuses +into the stratosphere, where it reacts with free oxygen (O) to form two NO +molecules. Another mechanism for NO production in the lower atmosphere may +be lightning discharges, and while NO is quickly washed out of the lower +atmosphere by rain, some of it may reach the stratosphere. Additional +amounts of NO are produced directly in the stratosphere by cosmic rays from +the sun and interstellar sources. + +It is because of this catalytic role which nitric oxide plays in the +destruction of ozone that it is important to consider the effects of +high-yield nuclear explosions on the ozone layer. The nuclear fireball and +the air entrained within it are subjected to great heat, followed by +relatively rapid cooling. These conditions are ideal for the production of +tremendous amounts of NO from the air. It has been estimated that as much +as 5,000 tons of nitric oxide is produced for each megaton of nuclear +explosive power. + +What would be the effects of nitric oxides driven into the stratosphere by +an all-out nuclear war, involving the detonation of 10,000 megatons of +explosive force in the northern hemisphere? According to the recent +National Academy of Sciences study, the nitric oxide produced by the +weapons could reduce the ozone levels in the northern hemisphere by as much +as 30 to 70 percent. + +To begin with, a depleted ozone layer would reflect back to the earth's +surface less heat than would normally be the case, thus causing a drop in +temperature--perhaps enough to produce serious effects on agriculture. +Other changes, such as increased amounts of dust or different vegetation, +might subsequently reverse this drop in temperature--but on the other hand, +it might increase it. + +Probably more important, life on earth has largely evolved within the +protective ozone shield and is presently adapted rather precisely to the +amount of solar ultraviolet which does get through. To defend themselves +against this low level of ultraviolet, evolved external shielding +(feathers, fur, cuticular waxes on fruit), internal shielding (melanin +pigment in human skin, flavenoids in plant tissue), avoidance strategies +(plankton migration to greater depths in the daytime, shade-seeking by +desert iguanas) and, in almost all organisms but placental mammals, +elaborate mechanisms to repair photochemical damage. + +It is possible, however, that a major increase in solar ultraviolet might +overwhelm the defenses of some and perhaps many terrestrial life forms. +Both direct and indirect damage would then occur among the bacteria, +insects, plants, and other links in the ecosystems on which human +well-being depends. This disruption, particularly if it occurred in the +aftermath of a major war involving many other dislocations, could pose a +serious additional threat to the recovery of postwar society. The National +Academy of Sciences report concludes that in 20 years the ecological +systems would have essentially recovered from the increase in ultraviolet +radiation--though not necessarily from radioactivity or other damage in +areas close to the war zone. However, a delayed effect of the increase in +ultraviolet radiation would be an estimated 3 to 30 percent increase in +skin cancer for 40 years in the Northern Hemisphere's mid-latitudes. + + + +SOME CONCLUSIONS + + +We have considered the problems of large-scale nuclear war from the +standpoint of the countries not under direct attack, and the difficulties +they might encounter in postwar recovery. It is true that most of the +horror and tragedy of nuclear war would be visited on the populations +subject to direct attack, who would doubtless have to cope with extreme and +perhaps insuperable obstacles in seeking to reestablish their own +societies. It is no less apparent, however, that other nations, including +those remote from the combat, could suffer heavily because of damage to the +global environment. + +Finally, at least brief mention should be made of the global effects +resulting from disruption of economic activities and communications. Since +1970, an increasing fraction of the human race has been losing the battle +for self-sufficiency in food, and must rely on heavy imports. A major +disruption of agriculture and transportation in the grain-exporting and +manufacturing countries could thus prove disastrous to countries importing +food, farm machinery, and fertilizers--especially those which are already +struggling with the threat of widespread starvation. Moreover, virtually +every economic area, from food and medicines to fuel and growth engendering +industries, the less-developed countries would find they could not rely on +the "undamaged" remainder of the developed world for trade essentials: in +the wake of a nuclear war the industrial powers directly involved would +themselves have to compete for resources with those countries that today +are described as "less-developed." + +Similarly, the disruption of international communications--satellites, +cables, and even high frequency radio links--could be a major obstacle to +international recovery efforts. + +In attempting to project the after-effects of a major nuclear war, we have +considered separately the various kinds of damage that could occur. It is +also quite possible, however, that interactions might take place among +these effects, so that one type of damage would couple with another to +produce new and unexpected hazards. For example, we can assess +individually the consequences of heavy worldwide radiation fallout and +increased solar ultraviolet, but we do not know whether the two acting +together might significantly increase human, animal, or plant +susceptibility to disease. We can conclude that massive dust injection +into the stratosphere, even greater in scale than Krakatoa, is unlikely by +itself to produce significant climatic and environmental change, but we +cannot rule out interactions with other phenomena, such as ozone depletion, +which might produce utterly unexpected results. + +We have come to realize that nuclear weapons can be as unpredictable as +they are deadly in their effects. Despite some 30 years of development and +study, there is still much that we do not know. This is particularly true +when we consider the global effects of a large-scale nuclear war. + + + +Note 1: Nuclear Weapons Yield + + +The most widely used standard for measuring the power of nuclear weapons is +"yield," expressed as the quantity of chemical explosive (TNT) that would +produce the same energy release. The first atomic weapon which leveled +Hiroshima in 1945, had a yield of 13 kilotons; that is, the explosive power +of 13,000 tons of TNT. (The largest conventional bomb dropped in World War +II contained about 10 tons of TNT.) + +Since Hiroshima, the yields or explosive power of nuclear weapons have +vastly increased. The world's largest nuclear detonation, set off in 1962 +by the Soviet Union, had a yield of 58 megatons--equivalent to 58 million +tons of TNT. A modern ballistic missile may carry warhead yields up to 20 +or more megatons. + +Even the most violent wars of recent history have been relatively limited +in terms of the total destructive power of the non-nuclear weapons used. +A single aircraft or ballistic missile today can carry a nuclear explosive +force surpassing that of all the non-nuclear bombs used in recent wars. +The number of nuclear bombs and missiles the superpowers now possess runs +into the thousands. + + + +Note 2: Nuclear Weapons Design + + +Nuclear weapons depend on two fundamentally different types of nuclear +reactions, each of which releases energy: + +Fission, which involves the splitting of heavy elements (e.g. uranium); and +fusion, which involves the combining of light elements (e.g. hydrogen). + +Fission requires that a minimum amount of material or "critical mass" be +brought together in contact for the nuclear explosion to take place. The +more efficient fission weapons tend to fall in the yield range of tens of +kilotons. Higher explosive yields become increasingly complex and +impractical. + +Nuclear fusion permits the design of weapons of virtually limitless power. +In fusion, according to nuclear theory, when the nuclei of light atoms like +hydrogen are joined, the mass of the fused nucleus is lighter than the two +original nuclei; the loss is expressed as energy. By the 1930's, +physicists had concluded that this was the process which powered the sun +and stars; but the nuclear fusion process remained only of theoretical +interest until it was discovered that an atomic fission bomb might be used +as a "trigger" to produce, within one- or two-millionths of a second, the +intense pressure and temperature necessary to set off the fusion reaction. + +Fusion permits the design of weapons of almost limitless power, using +materials that are far less costly. + + + +Note 3: Radioactivity + + +Most familiar natural elements like hydrogen, oxygen, gold, and lead are +stable, and enduring unless acted upon by outside forces. But almost all +elements can exist in unstable forms. The nuclei of these unstable +"isotopes," as they are called, are "uncomfortable" with the particular +mixture of nuclear particles comprising them, and they decrease this +internal stress through the process of radioactive decay. + +The three basic modes of radioactive decay are the emission of alpha, beta +and gamma radiation: + +Alpha--Unstable nuclei frequently emit alpha particles, actually helium +nuclei consisting of two protons and two neutrons. By far the most massive +of the decay particles, it is also the slowest, rarely exceeding one-tenth +the velocity of light. As a result, its penetrating power is weak, and it +can usually be stopped by a piece of paper. But if alpha emitters like +plutonium are incorporated in the body, they pose a serious cancer threat. + +Beta--Another form of radioactive decay is the emission of a beta particle, +or electron. The beta particle has only about one seven-thousandth the +mass of the alpha particle, but its velocity is very much greater, as much +as eight-tenths the velocity of light. As a result, beta particles can +penetrate far more deeply into bodily tissue and external doses of beta +radiation represent a significantly greater threat than the slower, heavier +alpha particles. Beta-emitting isotopes are as harmful as alpha emitters +if taken up by the body. + +Gamma--In some decay processes, the emission is a photon having no mass at +all and traveling at the speed of light. Radio waves, visible light, +radiant heat, and X-rays are all photons, differing only in the energy +level each carries. The gamma ray is similar to the X-ray photon, but far +more penetrating (it can traverse several inches of concrete). It is +capable of doing great damage in the body. + +Common to all three types of nuclear decay radiation is their ability to +ionize (i.e., unbalance electrically) the neutral atoms through which they +pass, that is, give them a net electrical charge. The alpha particle, +carrying a positive electrical charge, pulls electrons from the atoms +through which it passes, while negatively charged beta particles can push +electrons out of neutral atoms. If energetic betas pass sufficiently close +to atomic nuclei, they can produce X-rays which themselves can ionize +additional neutral atoms. Massless but energetic gamma rays can knock +electrons out of neutral atoms in the same fashion as X-rays, leaving them +ionized. A single particle of radiation can ionize hundreds of neutral +atoms in the tissue in multiple collisions before all its energy is +absorbed. This disrupts the chemical bonds for critically important cell +structures like the cytoplasm, which carries the cell's genetic blueprints, +and also produces chemical constituents which can cause as much damage as +the original ionizing radiation. + +For convenience, a unit of radiation dose called the "rad" has been +adopted. It measures the amount of ionization produced per unit volume by +the particles from radioactive decay. + + + +Note 4: Nuclear Half-Life + + +The concept of "half-life" is basic to an understanding of radioactive +decay of unstable nuclei. + +Unlike physical "systems"--bacteria, animals, men and stars--unstable +isotopes do not individually have a predictable life span. There is no way +of forecasting when a single unstable nucleus will decay. + +Nevertheless, it is possible to get around the random behavior of an +individual nucleus by dealing statistically with large numbers of nuclei of +a particular radioactive isotope. In the case of thorium-232, for example, +radioactive decay proceeds so slowly that 14 billion years must elapse +before one-half of an initial quantity decayed to a more stable +configuration. Thus the half-life of this isotope is 14 billion years. +After the elapse of second half-life (another 14 billion years), only +one-fourth of the original quantity of thorium-232 would remain, one eighth +after the third half-life, and so on. + +Most manmade radioactive isotopes have much shorter half-lives, ranging +from seconds or days up to thousands of years. Plutonium-239 (a manmade +isotope) has a half-life of 24,000 years. + +For the most common uranium isotope, U-238, the half-life is 4.5 billion +years, about the age of the solar system. The much scarcer, fissionable +isotope of uranium, U-235, has a half-life of 700 million years, indicating +that its present abundance is only about 1 percent of the amount present +when the solar system was born. + + + +Note 5: Oxygen, Ozone and Ultraviolet Radiation + + +Oxygen, vital to breathing creatures, constitutes about one-fifth of the +earth's atmosphere. It occasionally occurs as a single atom in the +atmosphere at high temperature, but it usually combines with a second +oxygen atom to form molecular oxygen (O2). The oxygen in the air we +breathe consists primarily of this stable form. + +Oxygen has also a third chemical form in which three oxygen atoms are bound +together in a single molecule (03), called ozone. Though less stable and +far more rare than O2, and principally confined to upper levels of the +stratosphere, both molecular oxygen and ozone play a vital role in +shielding the earth from harmful components of solar radiation. + +Most harmful radiation is in the "ultraviolet" region of the solar +spectrum, invisible to the eye at short wavelengths (under 3,000 A). (An +angstrom unit--A--is an exceedingly short unit of length--10 billionths of +a centimeter, or about 4 billionths of an inch.) Unlike X-rays, ultraviolet +photons are not "hard" enough to ionize atoms, but pack enough energy to +break down the chemical bonds of molecules in living cells and produce a +variety of biological and genetic abnormalities, including tumors and +cancers. + +Fortunately, because of the earth's atmosphere, only a trace of this +dangerous ultraviolet radiation actually reaches the earth. By the time +sunlight reaches the top of the stratosphere, at about 30 miles altitude, +almost all the radiation shorter than 1,900 A has been absorbed by +molecules of nitrogen and oxygen. Within the stratosphere itself, +molecular oxygen (02) absorbs the longer wavelengths of ultraviolet, up to +2,420 A; and ozone (O3) is formed as a result of this absorption process. +It is this ozone then which absorbs almost all of the remaining ultraviolet +wavelengths up to about 3,000 A, so that almost all of the dangerous solar +radiation is cut off before it reaches the earth's surface. + + + + +End of the Project Gutenberg Etext of Worldwide Effects of Nuclear War + diff --git a/old/nukwr10.zip b/old/nukwr10.zip Binary files differnew file mode 100644 index 0000000..466e152 --- /dev/null +++ b/old/nukwr10.zip |