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diff --git a/.gitattributes b/.gitattributes new file mode 100644 index 0000000..d7b82bc --- /dev/null +++ b/.gitattributes @@ -0,0 +1,4 @@ +*.txt text eol=lf +*.htm text eol=lf +*.html text eol=lf +*.md text eol=lf diff --git a/LICENSE.txt b/LICENSE.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6312041 --- /dev/null +++ b/LICENSE.txt @@ -0,0 +1,11 @@ +This eBook, including all associated images, markup, improvements, +metadata, and any other content or labor, has been confirmed to be +in the PUBLIC DOMAIN IN THE UNITED STATES. + +Procedures for determining public domain status are described in +the "Copyright How-To" at https://www.gutenberg.org. + +No investigation has been made concerning possible copyrights in +jurisdictions other than the United States. Anyone seeking to utilize +this eBook outside of the United States should confirm copyright +status under the laws that apply to them. diff --git a/README.md b/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..0ca1b32 --- /dev/null +++ b/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,2 @@ +Project Gutenberg (https://www.gutenberg.org) public repository for +eBook #50766 (https://www.gutenberg.org/ebooks/50766) diff --git a/old/50766-h.zip b/old/50766-h.zip Binary files differdeleted file mode 100644 index d16c51a..0000000 --- a/old/50766-h.zip +++ /dev/null diff --git a/old/50766-h/50766-h.htm b/old/50766-h/50766-h.htm deleted file mode 100644 index 98a02c4..0000000 --- a/old/50766-h/50766-h.htm +++ /dev/null @@ -1,1157 +0,0 @@ -<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN" - "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-strict.dtd"> -<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xml:lang="en" lang="en"> - <head> - <meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html;charset=us-ascii" /> - <meta http-equiv="Content-Style-Type" content="text/css" /> - <title> - The Project Gutenberg eBook of The Snowball Effect, by Katherine Maclean. - </title> - <link rel="coverpage" href="images/cover.jpg" /> - - <style type="text/css"> - -body { - margin-left: 10%; - margin-right: 10%; -} - - h1,h2 { - text-align: center; /* all headings centered */ - clear: both; -} - -p { - margin-top: .51em; - text-align: justify; - margin-bottom: .49em; -} - -hr { - width: 33%; - margin-top: 2em; - margin-bottom: 2em; - margin-left: 33.5%; - margin-right: 33.5%; - clear: both; -} - -hr.chap {width: 65%; margin-left: 17.5%; margin-right: 17.5%;} -hr.tb {width: 45%; margin-left: 27.5%; margin-right: 27.5%;} - -.center {text-align: center;} - -.right {text-align: right;} - -.caption {font-weight: bold;} - -/* Images */ -.figcenter { - margin: auto; - text-align: center; -} - -div.titlepage { - text-align: center; - page-break-before: always; - page-break-after: always; -} - -div.titlepage p { - text-align: center; - text-indent: 0em; - font-weight: bold; - line-height: 1.5; - margin-top: 3em; -} - -.ph1, .ph2, .ph3, .ph4 { text-align: center; text-indent: 0em; font-weight: bold; } -.ph1 { font-size: xx-large; margin: .67em auto; } -.ph2 { font-size: x-large; margin: .75em auto; } -.ph3 { font-size: large; margin: .83em auto; } -.ph4 { font-size: medium; margin: 1.12em auto; } - - - </style> - </head> -<body> - - -<pre> - -The Project Gutenberg EBook of The Snowball Effect, by Katherine MacLean - -This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere in the United States and most -other parts of the world at no cost and with almost no restrictions -whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of -the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at -www.gutenberg.org. If you are not located in the United States, you'll have -to check the laws of the country where you are located before using this ebook. - -Title: The Snowball Effect - -Author: Katherine MacLean - -Release Date: December 25, 2015 [EBook #50766] - -Language: English - -Character set encoding: ASCII - -*** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE SNOWBALL EFFECT *** - - - - -Produced by Greg Weeks, Mary Meehan and the Online -Distributed Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net - - - - - - -</pre> - - -<div class="figcenter"> - <img src="images/cover.jpg" width="362" height="500" alt=""/> -</div> - -<hr class="chap" /> - -<div class="titlepage"> - -<h1>The Snowball Effect</h1> - -<p>By KATHERINE MacLEAN</p> - -<p>Illustrated by EMSH</p> - -<p>[Transcriber's Note: This etext was produced from<br /> -Galaxy Science Fiction September 1952.<br /> -Extensive research did not uncover any evidence that<br /> -the U.S. copyright on this publication was renewed.]</p> - -</div> - -<hr class="chap" /> - -<p class="ph3"><i>Tack power drives on a sewing circle and<br /> -you can needle the world into the darndest mess!</i></p> - -<hr class="chap" /> - -<p>"All right," I said, "what <i>is</i> sociology good for?"</p> - -<p>Wilton Caswell, Ph.D., was head of my Sociology Department, and right -then he was mad enough to chew nails. On the office wall behind him -were three or four framed documents in Latin that were supposed to be -signs of great learning, but I didn't care at that moment if he papered -the walls with his degrees. I had been appointed dean and president -to see to it that the university made money. I had a job to do, and I -meant to do it.</p> - -<p>He bit off each word with great restraint: "Sociology is the study of -social institutions, Mr. Halloway."</p> - -<p>I tried to make him understand my position. "Look, it's the big-money -men who are supposed to be contributing to the support of this college. -To them, sociology sounds like socialism—nothing can sound worse than -that—and an institution is where they put Aunt Maggy when she began -collecting Wheaties in a stamp album. We can't appeal to them that way. -Come on now." I smiled condescendingly, knowing it would irritate him. -"What are you doing that's worth anything?"</p> - -<p>He glared at me, his white hair bristling and his nostrils dilated -like a war horse about to whinny. I can say one thing for them—these -scientists and professors always keep themselves well under control. -He had a book in his hand and I was expecting him to throw it, but he -spoke instead:</p> - -<p>"This department's analysis of institutional accretion, by the use of -open system mathematics, has been recognized as an outstanding and -valuable contribution to—"</p> - -<p>The words were impressive, whatever they meant, but this still didn't -sound like anything that would pull in money. I interrupted, "Valuable -in what way?"</p> - -<p>He sat down on the edge of his desk thoughtfully, apparently recovering -from the shock of being asked to produce something solid for his -position, and ran his eyes over the titles of the books that lined his -office walls.</p> - -<p>"Well, sociology has been valuable to business in initiating worker -efficiency and group motivation studies, which they now use in -management decisions. And, of course, since the depression, Washington -has been using sociological studies of employment, labor and standards -of living as a basis for its general policies of—"</p> - -<p>I stopped him with both raised hands. "Please, Professor Caswell! That -would hardly be a recommendation. Washington, the New Deal and the -present Administration are somewhat touchy subjects to the men I have -to deal with. They consider its value debatable, if you know what I -mean. If they got the idea that sociology professors are giving advice -and guidance—No, we have to stick to brass tacks and leave Washington -out of this. What, specifically, has the work of this specific -department done that would make it as worthy to receive money as—say, -a heart disease research fund?"</p> - -<p>He began to tap the corner of his book absently on the desk, watching -me. "Fundamental research doesn't show immediate effects, Mr. Halloway, -but its value is recognized."</p> - -<p>I smiled and took out my pipe. "All right, tell me about it. Maybe I'll -recognize its value."</p> - -<p>Prof. Caswell smiled back tightly. He knew his department was at stake. -The other departments were popular with donors and pulled in gift -money by scholarships and fellowships, and supported their professors -and graduate students by research contracts with the government -and industry. Caswell had to show a way to make his own department -popular—or else. I couldn't fire him directly, of course, but there -are ways of doing it indirectly.</p> - -<hr class="tb" /> - -<p>He laid down his book and ran a hand over his ruffled hair. -"Institutions—organizations, that is—" his voice became more -resonant; like most professors, when he had to explain something he -instinctively slipped into his platform lecture mannerisms, and began -to deliver an essay—"have certain tendencies built into the way they -happen to have been organized, which cause them to expand or contract -without reference to the needs they were founded to serve."</p> - -<p>He was becoming flushed with the pleasure of explaining his subject. -"All through the ages, it has been a matter of wonder and dismay -to men that a simple organization—such as a church to worship in, -or a delegation of weapons to a warrior class merely for defense -against an outside enemy—will either grow insensately and extend its -control until it is a tyranny over their whole lives, or, like other -organizations set up to serve a vital need, will tend to repeatedly -dwindle and vanish, and have to be painfully rebuilt.</p> - -<p>"The reason can be traced to little quirks in the way they were -organized, a matter of positive and negative power feedbacks. Such -simple questions as, 'Is there a way a holder of authority in this -organization can use the power available to him to increase his power?' -provide the key. But it still could not be handled until the complex -questions of interacting motives and long-range accumulations of minor -effects could somehow be simplified and formulated. In working on the -problem, I found that the mathematics of open system, as introduced -to biology by Ludwig von Bertalanffy and George Kreezer, could be -used as a base that would enable me to develop a specifically social -mathematics, expressing the human factors of intermeshing authority and -motives in simple formulas.</p> - -<p>"By these formulations, it is possible to determine automatically the -amount of growth and period of life of any organization. The UN, to -choose an unfortunate example, is a shrinker type organization. Its -monetary support is not in the hands of those who personally benefit -by its governmental activities, but, instead, in the hands of those -who would personally lose by any extension and encroachment of its -authority on their own. Yet by the use of formula analysis—"</p> - -<p>"That's theory," I said. "How about proof?"</p> - -<p>"My equations are already being used in the study of limited-size -Federal corporations. Washington—"</p> - -<p>I held up my palm again. "Please, not that nasty word again. I mean, -where else has it been put into operation? Just a simple demonstration, -something to show that it works, that's all."</p> - -<p>He looked away from me thoughtfully, picked up the book and began to -tap it on the desk again. It had some unreadable title and his name on -it in gold letters. I got the distinct impression again that he was -repressing an urge to hit me with it.</p> - -<p>He spoke quietly. "All right, I'll give you a demonstration. Are you -willing to wait six months?"</p> - -<p>"Certainly, if you can show me something at the end of that time."</p> - -<p>Reminded of time, I glanced at my watch and stood up.</p> - -<p>"Could we discuss this over lunch?" he asked.</p> - -<p>"I wouldn't mind hearing more, but I'm having lunch with some -executors of a millionaire's will. They have to be convinced that by, -'furtherance of research into human ills,' he meant that the money -should go to research fellowships for postgraduate biologists at the -university, rather than to a medical foundation."</p> - -<p>"I see you have your problems, too," Caswell said, conceding me -nothing. He extended his hand with a chilly smile. "Well, good -afternoon, Mr. Halloway. I'm glad we had this talk."</p> - -<p>I shook hands and left him standing there, sure of his place in the -progress of science and the respect of his colleagues, yet seething -inside because I, the president and dean, had boorishly demanded that -he produce something tangible.</p> - -<p>I frankly didn't give a hoot if he blew his lid. My job isn't easy. -For a crumb of favorable publicity and respect in the newspapers and -an annual ceremony in a silly costume, I spend the rest of the year -going hat in hand, asking politely for money at everyone's door, -like a well-dressed panhandler, and trying to manage the university -on the dribble I get. As far as I was concerned, a department had to -support itself or be cut down to what student tuition pays for, which -is a handful of over-crowded courses taught by an assistant lecturer. -Caswell had to make it work or get out.</p> - -<p>But the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to hear what he was -going to do for a demonstration.</p> - -<hr class="tb" /> - -<p>At lunch, three days later, while we were waiting for our order, he -opened a small notebook. "Ever hear of feedback effects?"</p> - -<p>"Not enough to have it clear."</p> - -<p>"You know the snowball effect, though."</p> - -<p>"Sure, start a snowball rolling downhill and it grows."</p> - -<p>"Well, now—" He wrote a short line of symbols on a blank page and -turned the notebook around for me to inspect it. "Here's the formula -for the snowball process. It's the basic general growth formula—covers -everything."</p> - -<p>It was a row of little symbols arranged like an algebra equation. One -was a concentric spiral going up, like a cross-section of a snowball -rolling in snow. That was a growth sign.</p> - -<p>I hadn't expected to understand the equation, but it was almost as -clear as a sentence. I was impressed and slightly intimidated by it. -He had already explained enough so that I knew that, if he was right, -here was the growth of the Catholic Church and the Roman Empire, the -conquests of Alexander and the spread of the smoking habit and the -change and rigidity of the unwritten law of styles.</p> - -<p>"Is it really as simple as that?" I asked.</p> - -<p>"You notice," he said, "that when it becomes too heavy for the cohesion -strength of snow, it breaks apart. Now in human terms—"</p> - -<p>The chops and mashed potatoes and peas arrived.</p> - -<p>"Go on," I urged.</p> - -<p>He was deep in the symbology of human motives and the equations of -human behavior in groups. After running through a few different -types of grower and shrinker type organizations, we came back to the -snowball, and decided to run the test by making something grow.</p> - -<p>"You add the motives," he said, "and the equation will translate them -into organization."</p> - -<p>"How about a good selfish reason for the ins to drag others into the -group—some sort of bounty on new members, a cut of their membership -fee?" I suggested uncertainly, feeling slightly foolish. "And maybe a -reason why the members would lose if any of them resigned, and some -indirect way they could use to force each other to stay in."</p> - -<p>"The first is the chain letter principle," he nodded. "I've got -that. The other...." He put the symbols through some mathematical -manipulation so that a special grouping appeared in the middle of the -equation. "That's it."</p> - -<p>Since I seemed to have the right idea, I suggested some more, and he -added some, and juggled them around in different patterns. We threw -out a few that would have made the organization too complicated, and -finally worked out an idyllically simple and deadly little organization -setup where joining had all the temptation of buying a sweepstakes -ticket, going in deeper was as easy as hanging around a race track, and -getting out was like trying to pull free from a Malayan thumb trap. We -put our heads closer together and talked lower, picking the best place -for the demonstration.</p> - -<p>"Abington?"</p> - -<p>"How about Watashaw? I have some student sociological surveys of it -already. We can pick a suitable group from that."</p> - -<p>"This demonstration has got to be convincing. We'd better pick a little -group that no one in his right mind would expect to grow."</p> - -<p>"There should be a suitable club—"</p> - -<p>Picture Professor Caswell, head of the Department of Sociology, and -with him the President of the University, leaning across the table -toward each other, sipping coffee and talking in conspiratorial tones -over something they were writing in a notebook.</p> - -<p>That was us.</p> - -<hr class="tb" /> - -<div class="figcenter"> - <img src="images/illus.jpg" width="189" height="500" alt=""/> -</div> - -<hr class="tb" /> - -<p>"Ladies," said the skinny female chairman of the Watashaw Sewing -Circle. "Today we have guests." She signaled for us to rise, and we -stood up, bowing to polite applause and smiles. "Professor Caswell, and -Professor Smith." (My alias.) "They are making a survey of the methods -and duties of the clubs of Watashaw."</p> - -<p>We sat down to another ripple of applause and slightly wider smiles, -and then the meeting of the Watashaw Sewing Circle began. In five -minutes I began to feel sleepy.</p> - -<p>There were only about thirty people there, and it was a small room, not -the halls of Congress, but they discussed their business of collecting -and repairing second hand clothing for charity with the same endless -boring parliamentary formality.</p> - -<p>I pointed out to Caswell the member I thought would be the natural -leader, a tall, well-built woman in a green suit, with conscious -gestures and a resonant, penetrating voice, and then went into a -half doze while Caswell stayed awake beside me and wrote in his -notebook. After a while the resonant voice roused me to attention for -a moment. It was the tall woman holding the floor over some collective -dereliction of the club. She was being scathing.</p> - -<p>I nudged Caswell and murmured, "Did you fix it so that a shover has a -better chance of getting into office than a non-shover?"</p> - -<p>"I think there's a way they could find for it," Caswell whispered back, -and went to work on his equation again. "Yes, several ways to bias the -elections."</p> - -<p>"Good. Point them out tactfully to the one you select. Not as if -she'd use such methods, but just as an example of the reason why only -<i>she</i> can be trusted with initiating the change. Just mention all the -personal advantages an unscrupulous person could have."</p> - -<p>He nodded, keeping a straight and sober face as if we were exchanging -admiring remarks about the techniques of clothes repairing, instead of -conspiring.</p> - -<p>After the meeting, Caswell drew the tall woman in the green suit -aside and spoke to her confidentially, showing her the diagram of -organization we had drawn up. I saw the responsive glitter in the -woman's eyes and knew she was hooked.</p> - -<p>We left the diagram of organization and our typed copy of the new -bylaws with her and went off soberly, as befitted two social science -experimenters. We didn't start laughing until our car passed the town -limits and began the climb for University Heights.</p> - -<p>If Caswell's equations meant anything at all, we had given that sewing -circle more growth drives than the Roman Empire.</p> - -<hr class="tb" /> - -<p>Four months later I had time out from a very busy schedule to wonder -how the test was coming along. Passing Caswell's office, I put my head -in. He looked up from a student research paper he was correcting.</p> - -<p>"Caswell, about that sewing club business—I'm beginning to feel the -suspense. Could I get an advance report on how it's coming?"</p> - -<p>"I'm not following it. We're supposed to let it run the full six -months."</p> - -<p>"But I'm curious. Could I get in touch with that woman—what's her -name?"</p> - -<p>"Searles. Mrs. George Searles."</p> - -<p>"Would that change the results?"</p> - -<p>"Not in the slightest. If you want to graph the membership rise, it -should be going up in a log curve, probably doubling every so often."</p> - -<p>I grinned. "If it's not rising, you're fired."</p> - -<p>He grinned back. "If it's not rising, you won't have to fire me—I'll -burn my books and shoot myself."</p> - -<p>I returned to my office and put in a call to Watashaw.</p> - -<p>While I was waiting for the phone to be answered, I took a piece of -graph paper and ruled it off into six sections, one for each month. -After the phone had rung in the distance for a long time, a servant -answered with a bored drawl:</p> - -<p>"Mrs. Searles' residence."</p> - -<p>I picked up a red gummed star and licked it.</p> - -<p>"Mrs. Searles, please."</p> - -<p>"She's not in just now. Could I take a message?"</p> - -<p>I placed the star at the thirty line in the beginning of the first -section. Thirty members they'd started with.</p> - -<p>"No, thanks. Could you tell me when she'll be back?"</p> - -<p>"Not until dinner. She's at the meetin'."</p> - -<p>"The sewing club?" I asked.</p> - -<p>"No, sir, not that thing. There isn't any Sewing club any more, not -for a long time. She's at the Civic Welfare meeting."</p> - -<p>Somehow I hadn't expected anything like that.</p> - -<p>"Thank you," I said and hung up, and after a moment noticed I was -holding a box of red gummed stars in my hand. I closed it and put it -down on top of the graph of membership in the sewing circle. No more -members....</p> - -<p>Poor Caswell. The bet between us was ironclad. He wouldn't let me -back down on it even if I wanted to. He'd probably quit before I put -through the first slow move to fire him. His professional pride would -be shattered, sunk without a trace. I remembered what he said about -shooting himself. It had seemed funny to both of us at the time, -but.... What a mess <i>that</i> would make for the university.</p> - -<p>I had to talk to Mrs. Searles. Perhaps there was some outside reason -why the club had disbanded. Perhaps it had not just died.</p> - -<p>I called back. "This is Professor Smith," I said, giving the alias I -had used before. "I called a few minutes ago. When did you say Mrs. -Searles will return?"</p> - -<p>"About six-thirty or seven o'clock."</p> - -<p>Five hours to wait.</p> - -<p>And what if Caswell asked me what I had found out in the meantime? I -didn't want to tell him anything until I had talked it over with that -woman Searles first.</p> - -<p>"Where is this Civic Welfare meeting?"</p> - -<p>She told me.</p> - -<p>Five minutes later, I was in my car, heading for Watashaw, driving -considerably faster than my usual speed and keeping a careful watch for -highway patrol cars as the speedometer climbed.</p> - -<hr class="tb" /> - -<p>The town meeting hall and theater was a big place, probably with lots -of small rooms for different clubs. I went in through the center door -and found myself in the huge central hall where some sort of rally was -being held. A political-type rally—you know, cheers and chants, with -bunting already down on the floor, people holding banners, and plenty -of enthusiasm and excitement in the air. Someone was making a speech up -on the platform. Most of the people there were women.</p> - -<p>I wondered how the Civic Welfare League could dare hold its meeting at -the same time as a political rally that could pull its members away. -The group with Mrs. Searles was probably holding a shrunken and almost -memberless meeting somewhere in an upper room.</p> - -<p>There probably was a side door that would lead upstairs.</p> - -<p>While I glanced around, a pretty girl usher put a printed bulletin in -my hand, whispering, "Here's one of the new copies." As I attempted to -hand it back, she retreated. "Oh, you can keep it. It's the new one. -Everyone's supposed to have it. We've just printed up six thousand -copies to make sure there'll be enough to last."</p> - -<p>The tall woman on the platform had been making a driving, forceful -speech about some plans for rebuilding Watashaw's slum section. It -began to penetrate my mind dimly as I glanced down at the bulletin in -my hands.</p> - -<p>"Civic Welfare League of Watashaw. The United Organization of Church -and Secular Charities." That's what it said. Below began the rules of -membership.</p> - -<p>I looked up. The speaker, with a clear, determined voice and conscious, -forceful gestures, had entered the homestretch of her speech, an appeal -to the civic pride of all citizens of Watashaw.</p> - -<p>"With a bright and glorious future—potentially without poor and -without uncared-for ill—potentially with no ugliness, no vistas which -are not beautiful—the best people in the best planned town in the -country—the jewel of the United States."</p> - -<p>She paused and then leaned forward intensely, striking her clenched -hand on the speaker's stand with each word for emphasis.</p> - -<p>"<i>All we need is more members. Now get out there and recruit!</i>"</p> - -<p>I finally recognized Mrs. Searles, as an answering sudden blast of -sound half deafened me. The crowd was chanting at the top of its lungs: -"Recruit! Recruit!"</p> - -<p>Mrs. Searles stood still at the speaker's table and behind her, -seated in a row of chairs, was a group that was probably the board of -directors. It was mostly women, and the women began to look vaguely -familiar, as if they could be members of the sewing circle.</p> - -<p>I put my lips close to the ear of the pretty usher while I turned over -the stiff printed bulletin on a hunch. "How long has the League been -organized?" On the back of the bulletin was a constitution.</p> - -<p>She was cheering with the crowd, her eyes sparkling. "I don't know," -she answered between cheers. "I only joined two days ago. Isn't it -wonderful?"</p> - -<p>I went into the quiet outer air and got into my car with my skin -prickling. Even as I drove away, I could hear them. They were singing -some kind of organization song with the tune of "Marching through -Georgia."</p> - -<p>Even at the single glance I had given it, the constitution looked -exactly like the one we had given the Watashaw Sewing Circle.</p> - -<p>All I told Caswell when I got back was that the sewing circle had -changed its name and the membership seemed to be rising.</p> - -<hr class="tb" /> - -<p>Next day, after calling Mrs. Searles, I placed some red stars on my -graph for the first three months. They made a nice curve, rising more -steeply as it reached the fourth month. They had picked up their first -increase in membership simply by amalgamating with all the other types -of charity organizations in Watashaw, changing the club name with each -fusion, but keeping the same constitution—the constitution with the -bright promise of advantages as long as there were always new members -being brought in.</p> - -<p>By the fifth month, the League had added a mutual baby-sitting service -and had induced the local school board to add a nursery school to the -town service, so as to free more women for League activity. But charity -must have been completely organized by then, and expansion had to be in -other directions.</p> - -<p>Some real estate agents evidently had been drawn into the whirlpool -early, along with their ideas. The slum improvement plans began to -blossom and take on a tinge of real estate planning later in the month.</p> - -<p>The first day of the sixth month, a big two page spread appeared in -the local paper of a mass meeting which had approved a full-fledged -scheme for slum clearance of Watashaw's shack-town section, plus plans -for rehousing, civic building, and rezoning. <i>And</i> good prospects -for attracting some new industries to the town, industries which had -already been contacted and seemed interested by the privileges offered.</p> - -<p>And with all this, an arrangement for securing and distributing to the -club members <i>alone</i> most of the profit that would come to the town in -the form of a rise in the price of building sites and a boom in the -building industry. The profit distributing arrangement was the same one -that had been built into the organization plan for the distribution -of the small profits of membership fees and honorary promotions. It -was becoming an openly profitable business. Membership was rising more -rapidly now.</p> - -<p>By the second week of the sixth month, news appeared in the local paper -that the club had filed an application to incorporate itself as the -Watashaw Mutual Trade and Civic Development Corporation, and all the -local real estate promoters had finished joining en masse. The Mutual -Trade part sounded to me as if the Chamber of Commerce was on the point -of being pulled in with them, ideas, ambitions and all.</p> - -<p>I chuckled while reading the next page of the paper, on which a local -politician was reported as having addressed the club with a long -flowery oration on their enterprise, charity, and civic spirit. He -had been made an honorary member. If he allowed himself to be made a -<i>full</i> member with its contractual obligations and its lures, if the -politicians went into this, too....</p> - -<p>I laughed, filing the newspaper with the other documents on the -Watashaw test. These proofs would fascinate any businessman with the -sense to see where his bread was buttered. A businessman is constantly -dealing with organizations, including his own, and finding them either -inert, cantankerous, or both. Caswell's formula could be a handle to -grasp them with. Gratitude alone would bring money into the university -in carload lots.</p> - -<hr class="tb" /> - -<p>The end of the sixth month came. The test was over and the end reports -were spectacular. Caswell's formulas were proven to the hilt.</p> - -<p>After reading the last newspaper reports, I called him up.</p> - -<p>"Perfect, Wilt, <i>perfect</i>! I can use this Watashaw thing to get you so -many fellowships and scholarships and grants for your department that -you'll think it's snowing money!"</p> - -<p>He answered somewhat disinterestedly, "I've been busy working with -students on their research papers and marking tests—not following the -Watashaw business at all, I'm afraid. You say the demonstration went -well and you're satisfied?"</p> - -<p>He was definitely putting on a chill. We were friends now, but -obviously he was still peeved whenever he was reminded that I had -doubted that his theory could work. And he was using its success to -rub my nose in the realization that I had been wrong. A man with a -string of degrees after his name is just as human as anyone else. I had -needled him pretty hard that first time.</p> - -<p>"I'm satisfied," I acknowledged. "I was wrong. The formulas work -beautifully. Come over and see my file of documents on it if you want a -boost for your ego. Now let's see the formula for stopping it."</p> - -<p>He sounded cheerful again. "I didn't complicate that organization -with negatives. I wanted it to <i>grow</i>. It falls apart naturally when -it stops growing for more than two months. It's like the great stock -boom before an economic crash. Everyone in it is prosperous as long as -the prices just keep going up and new buyers come into the market, but -they all knew what would happen if it stopped growing. You remember, we -built in as one of the incentives that the members know they are going -to lose if membership stops growing. Why, if I tried to stop it now, -they'd cut my throat."</p> - -<p>I remembered the drive and frenzy of the crowd in the one early meeting -I had seen. They probably would.</p> - -<p>"No," he continued. "We'll just let it play out to the end of its -tether and die of old age."</p> - -<p>"When will that be?"</p> - -<p>"It can't grow past the female population of the town. There are only -so many women in Watashaw, and some of them don't like sewing."</p> - -<p>The graph on the desk before me began to look sinister. Surely Caswell -must have made some provision for—</p> - -<p>"You underestimate their ingenuity," I said into the phone. "Since they -wanted to expand, they didn't stick to sewing. They went from general -charity to social welfare schemes to something that's pretty close to -an incorporated government. The name is now the Watashaw Mutual Trade -and Civic Development Corporation, and they're filing an application -to change it to Civic Property Pool and Social Dividend, membership -contractual, open to all. That social dividend sounds like a Technocrat -climbed on the band wagon, eh?"</p> - -<p>While I spoke, I carefully added another red star to the curve above -the thousand member level, checking with the newspaper that still lay -open on my desk. The curve was definitely some sort of log curve now, -growing more rapidly with each increase.</p> - -<p>"Leaving out practical limitations for a moment, where does the formula -say it will stop?" I asked.</p> - -<p>"When you run out of people to join it. But after all, there are only -so many people in Watashaw. It's a pretty small town."</p> - -<hr class="tb" /> - -<p>"They've opened a branch office in New York," I said carefully into the -phone, a few weeks later.</p> - -<p>With my pencil, very carefully, I extended the membership curve from -where it was then.</p> - -<p>After the next doubling, the curve went almost straight up and off the -page.</p> - -<p>Allowing for a lag of contagion from one nation to another, depending -on how much their citizens intermingled, I'd give the rest of the world -about twelve years.</p> - -<p>There was a long silence while Caswell probably drew the same graph -in his own mind. Then he laughed weakly. "Well, you asked me for a -demonstration."</p> - -<p>That was as good an answer as any. We got together and had lunch in a -bar, if you can call it lunch. The movement we started will expand by -hook or by crook, by seduction or by bribery or by propaganda or by -conquest, but it will expand. And maybe a total world government will -be a fine thing—until it hits the end of its rope in twelve years or -so.</p> - -<p>What happens then, I don't know.</p> - -<p>But I don't want anyone to pin that on me. From now on, if anyone asks -me, I've never heard of Watashaw.</p> - - - - - - - - -<pre> - - - - - -End of Project Gutenberg's The Snowball Effect, by Katherine MacLean - -*** END OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE SNOWBALL EFFECT *** - -***** This file should be named 50766-h.htm or 50766-h.zip ***** -This and all associated files of various formats will be found in: - http://www.gutenberg.org/5/0/7/6/50766/ - -Produced by Greg Weeks, Mary Meehan and the Online -Distributed Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net - -Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions will -be renamed. - -Creating the works from print editions not protected by U.S. copyright -law means that no one owns a United States copyright in these works, -so the Foundation (and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United -States without permission and without paying copyright -royalties. 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You may copy it, give it away or re-use it under the terms of -the Project Gutenberg License included with this eBook or online at -www.gutenberg.org. If you are not located in the United States, you'll have -to check the laws of the country where you are located before using this ebook. - -Title: The Snowball Effect - -Author: Katherine MacLean - -Release Date: December 25, 2015 [EBook #50766] - -Language: English - -Character set encoding: ASCII - -*** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE SNOWBALL EFFECT *** - - - - -Produced by Greg Weeks, Mary Meehan and the Online -Distributed Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net - - - - - - - - - - - The Snowball Effect - - By KATHERINE MacLEAN - - Illustrated by EMSH - - [Transcriber's Note: This etext was produced from - Galaxy Science Fiction September 1952. - Extensive research did not uncover any evidence that - the U.S. copyright on this publication was renewed.] - - - - - Tack power drives on a sewing circle and you - can needle the world into the darndest mess! - - -"All right," I said, "what _is_ sociology good for?" - -Wilton Caswell, Ph.D., was head of my Sociology Department, and right -then he was mad enough to chew nails. On the office wall behind him -were three or four framed documents in Latin that were supposed to be -signs of great learning, but I didn't care at that moment if he papered -the walls with his degrees. I had been appointed dean and president -to see to it that the university made money. I had a job to do, and I -meant to do it. - -He bit off each word with great restraint: "Sociology is the study of -social institutions, Mr. Halloway." - -I tried to make him understand my position. "Look, it's the big-money -men who are supposed to be contributing to the support of this college. -To them, sociology sounds like socialism--nothing can sound worse than -that--and an institution is where they put Aunt Maggy when she began -collecting Wheaties in a stamp album. We can't appeal to them that way. -Come on now." I smiled condescendingly, knowing it would irritate him. -"What are you doing that's worth anything?" - -He glared at me, his white hair bristling and his nostrils dilated -like a war horse about to whinny. I can say one thing for them--these -scientists and professors always keep themselves well under control. -He had a book in his hand and I was expecting him to throw it, but he -spoke instead: - -"This department's analysis of institutional accretion, by the use of -open system mathematics, has been recognized as an outstanding and -valuable contribution to--" - -The words were impressive, whatever they meant, but this still didn't -sound like anything that would pull in money. I interrupted, "Valuable -in what way?" - -He sat down on the edge of his desk thoughtfully, apparently recovering -from the shock of being asked to produce something solid for his -position, and ran his eyes over the titles of the books that lined his -office walls. - -"Well, sociology has been valuable to business in initiating worker -efficiency and group motivation studies, which they now use in -management decisions. And, of course, since the depression, Washington -has been using sociological studies of employment, labor and standards -of living as a basis for its general policies of--" - -I stopped him with both raised hands. "Please, Professor Caswell! That -would hardly be a recommendation. Washington, the New Deal and the -present Administration are somewhat touchy subjects to the men I have -to deal with. They consider its value debatable, if you know what I -mean. If they got the idea that sociology professors are giving advice -and guidance--No, we have to stick to brass tacks and leave Washington -out of this. What, specifically, has the work of this specific -department done that would make it as worthy to receive money as--say, -a heart disease research fund?" - -He began to tap the corner of his book absently on the desk, watching -me. "Fundamental research doesn't show immediate effects, Mr. Halloway, -but its value is recognized." - -I smiled and took out my pipe. "All right, tell me about it. Maybe I'll -recognize its value." - -Prof. Caswell smiled back tightly. He knew his department was at stake. -The other departments were popular with donors and pulled in gift -money by scholarships and fellowships, and supported their professors -and graduate students by research contracts with the government -and industry. Caswell had to show a way to make his own department -popular--or else. I couldn't fire him directly, of course, but there -are ways of doing it indirectly. - - * * * * * - -He laid down his book and ran a hand over his ruffled hair. -"Institutions--organizations, that is--" his voice became more -resonant; like most professors, when he had to explain something he -instinctively slipped into his platform lecture mannerisms, and began -to deliver an essay--"have certain tendencies built into the way they -happen to have been organized, which cause them to expand or contract -without reference to the needs they were founded to serve." - -He was becoming flushed with the pleasure of explaining his subject. -"All through the ages, it has been a matter of wonder and dismay -to men that a simple organization--such as a church to worship in, -or a delegation of weapons to a warrior class merely for defense -against an outside enemy--will either grow insensately and extend its -control until it is a tyranny over their whole lives, or, like other -organizations set up to serve a vital need, will tend to repeatedly -dwindle and vanish, and have to be painfully rebuilt. - -"The reason can be traced to little quirks in the way they were -organized, a matter of positive and negative power feedbacks. Such -simple questions as, 'Is there a way a holder of authority in this -organization can use the power available to him to increase his power?' -provide the key. But it still could not be handled until the complex -questions of interacting motives and long-range accumulations of minor -effects could somehow be simplified and formulated. In working on the -problem, I found that the mathematics of open system, as introduced -to biology by Ludwig von Bertalanffy and George Kreezer, could be -used as a base that would enable me to develop a specifically social -mathematics, expressing the human factors of intermeshing authority and -motives in simple formulas. - -"By these formulations, it is possible to determine automatically the -amount of growth and period of life of any organization. The UN, to -choose an unfortunate example, is a shrinker type organization. Its -monetary support is not in the hands of those who personally benefit -by its governmental activities, but, instead, in the hands of those -who would personally lose by any extension and encroachment of its -authority on their own. Yet by the use of formula analysis--" - -"That's theory," I said. "How about proof?" - -"My equations are already being used in the study of limited-size -Federal corporations. Washington--" - -I held up my palm again. "Please, not that nasty word again. I mean, -where else has it been put into operation? Just a simple demonstration, -something to show that it works, that's all." - -He looked away from me thoughtfully, picked up the book and began to -tap it on the desk again. It had some unreadable title and his name on -it in gold letters. I got the distinct impression again that he was -repressing an urge to hit me with it. - -He spoke quietly. "All right, I'll give you a demonstration. Are you -willing to wait six months?" - -"Certainly, if you can show me something at the end of that time." - -Reminded of time, I glanced at my watch and stood up. - -"Could we discuss this over lunch?" he asked. - -"I wouldn't mind hearing more, but I'm having lunch with some -executors of a millionaire's will. They have to be convinced that by, -'furtherance of research into human ills,' he meant that the money -should go to research fellowships for postgraduate biologists at the -university, rather than to a medical foundation." - -"I see you have your problems, too," Caswell said, conceding me -nothing. He extended his hand with a chilly smile. "Well, good -afternoon, Mr. Halloway. I'm glad we had this talk." - -I shook hands and left him standing there, sure of his place in the -progress of science and the respect of his colleagues, yet seething -inside because I, the president and dean, had boorishly demanded that -he produce something tangible. - -I frankly didn't give a hoot if he blew his lid. My job isn't easy. -For a crumb of favorable publicity and respect in the newspapers and -an annual ceremony in a silly costume, I spend the rest of the year -going hat in hand, asking politely for money at everyone's door, -like a well-dressed panhandler, and trying to manage the university -on the dribble I get. As far as I was concerned, a department had to -support itself or be cut down to what student tuition pays for, which -is a handful of over-crowded courses taught by an assistant lecturer. -Caswell had to make it work or get out. - -But the more I thought about it, the more I wanted to hear what he was -going to do for a demonstration. - - * * * * * - -At lunch, three days later, while we were waiting for our order, he -opened a small notebook. "Ever hear of feedback effects?" - -"Not enough to have it clear." - -"You know the snowball effect, though." - -"Sure, start a snowball rolling downhill and it grows." - -"Well, now--" He wrote a short line of symbols on a blank page and -turned the notebook around for me to inspect it. "Here's the formula -for the snowball process. It's the basic general growth formula--covers -everything." - -It was a row of little symbols arranged like an algebra equation. One -was a concentric spiral going up, like a cross-section of a snowball -rolling in snow. That was a growth sign. - -I hadn't expected to understand the equation, but it was almost as -clear as a sentence. I was impressed and slightly intimidated by it. -He had already explained enough so that I knew that, if he was right, -here was the growth of the Catholic Church and the Roman Empire, the -conquests of Alexander and the spread of the smoking habit and the -change and rigidity of the unwritten law of styles. - -"Is it really as simple as that?" I asked. - -"You notice," he said, "that when it becomes too heavy for the cohesion -strength of snow, it breaks apart. Now in human terms--" - -The chops and mashed potatoes and peas arrived. - -"Go on," I urged. - -He was deep in the symbology of human motives and the equations of -human behavior in groups. After running through a few different -types of grower and shrinker type organizations, we came back to the -snowball, and decided to run the test by making something grow. - -"You add the motives," he said, "and the equation will translate them -into organization." - -"How about a good selfish reason for the ins to drag others into the -group--some sort of bounty on new members, a cut of their membership -fee?" I suggested uncertainly, feeling slightly foolish. "And maybe a -reason why the members would lose if any of them resigned, and some -indirect way they could use to force each other to stay in." - -"The first is the chain letter principle," he nodded. "I've got -that. The other...." He put the symbols through some mathematical -manipulation so that a special grouping appeared in the middle of the -equation. "That's it." - -Since I seemed to have the right idea, I suggested some more, and he -added some, and juggled them around in different patterns. We threw -out a few that would have made the organization too complicated, and -finally worked out an idyllically simple and deadly little organization -setup where joining had all the temptation of buying a sweepstakes -ticket, going in deeper was as easy as hanging around a race track, and -getting out was like trying to pull free from a Malayan thumb trap. We -put our heads closer together and talked lower, picking the best place -for the demonstration. - -"Abington?" - -"How about Watashaw? I have some student sociological surveys of it -already. We can pick a suitable group from that." - -"This demonstration has got to be convincing. We'd better pick a little -group that no one in his right mind would expect to grow." - -"There should be a suitable club--" - -Picture Professor Caswell, head of the Department of Sociology, and -with him the President of the University, leaning across the table -toward each other, sipping coffee and talking in conspiratorial tones -over something they were writing in a notebook. - -That was us. - - * * * * * - -"Ladies," said the skinny female chairman of the Watashaw Sewing -Circle. "Today we have guests." She signaled for us to rise, and we -stood up, bowing to polite applause and smiles. "Professor Caswell, and -Professor Smith." (My alias.) "They are making a survey of the methods -and duties of the clubs of Watashaw." - -We sat down to another ripple of applause and slightly wider smiles, -and then the meeting of the Watashaw Sewing Circle began. In five -minutes I began to feel sleepy. - -There were only about thirty people there, and it was a small room, not -the halls of Congress, but they discussed their business of collecting -and repairing second hand clothing for charity with the same endless -boring parliamentary formality. - -I pointed out to Caswell the member I thought would be the natural -leader, a tall, well-built woman in a green suit, with conscious -gestures and a resonant, penetrating voice, and then went into a -half doze while Caswell stayed awake beside me and wrote in his -notebook. After a while the resonant voice roused me to attention for -a moment. It was the tall woman holding the floor over some collective -dereliction of the club. She was being scathing. - -I nudged Caswell and murmured, "Did you fix it so that a shover has a -better chance of getting into office than a non-shover?" - -"I think there's a way they could find for it," Caswell whispered back, -and went to work on his equation again. "Yes, several ways to bias the -elections." - -"Good. Point them out tactfully to the one you select. Not as if -she'd use such methods, but just as an example of the reason why only -_she_ can be trusted with initiating the change. Just mention all the -personal advantages an unscrupulous person could have." - -He nodded, keeping a straight and sober face as if we were exchanging -admiring remarks about the techniques of clothes repairing, instead of -conspiring. - -After the meeting, Caswell drew the tall woman in the green suit -aside and spoke to her confidentially, showing her the diagram of -organization we had drawn up. I saw the responsive glitter in the -woman's eyes and knew she was hooked. - -We left the diagram of organization and our typed copy of the new -bylaws with her and went off soberly, as befitted two social science -experimenters. We didn't start laughing until our car passed the town -limits and began the climb for University Heights. - -If Caswell's equations meant anything at all, we had given that sewing -circle more growth drives than the Roman Empire. - - * * * * * - -Four months later I had time out from a very busy schedule to wonder -how the test was coming along. Passing Caswell's office, I put my head -in. He looked up from a student research paper he was correcting. - -"Caswell, about that sewing club business--I'm beginning to feel the -suspense. Could I get an advance report on how it's coming?" - -"I'm not following it. We're supposed to let it run the full six -months." - -"But I'm curious. Could I get in touch with that woman--what's her -name?" - -"Searles. Mrs. George Searles." - -"Would that change the results?" - -"Not in the slightest. If you want to graph the membership rise, it -should be going up in a log curve, probably doubling every so often." - -I grinned. "If it's not rising, you're fired." - -He grinned back. "If it's not rising, you won't have to fire me--I'll -burn my books and shoot myself." - -I returned to my office and put in a call to Watashaw. - -While I was waiting for the phone to be answered, I took a piece of -graph paper and ruled it off into six sections, one for each month. -After the phone had rung in the distance for a long time, a servant -answered with a bored drawl: - -"Mrs. Searles' residence." - -I picked up a red gummed star and licked it. - -"Mrs. Searles, please." - -"She's not in just now. Could I take a message?" - -I placed the star at the thirty line in the beginning of the first -section. Thirty members they'd started with. - -"No, thanks. Could you tell me when she'll be back?" - -"Not until dinner. She's at the meetin'." - -"The sewing club?" I asked. - -"No, sir, not that thing. There isn't any Sewing club any more, not -for a long time. She's at the Civic Welfare meeting." - -Somehow I hadn't expected anything like that. - -"Thank you," I said and hung up, and after a moment noticed I was -holding a box of red gummed stars in my hand. I closed it and put it -down on top of the graph of membership in the sewing circle. No more -members.... - -Poor Caswell. The bet between us was ironclad. He wouldn't let me -back down on it even if I wanted to. He'd probably quit before I put -through the first slow move to fire him. His professional pride would -be shattered, sunk without a trace. I remembered what he said about -shooting himself. It had seemed funny to both of us at the time, -but.... What a mess _that_ would make for the university. - -I had to talk to Mrs. Searles. Perhaps there was some outside reason -why the club had disbanded. Perhaps it had not just died. - -I called back. "This is Professor Smith," I said, giving the alias I -had used before. "I called a few minutes ago. When did you say Mrs. -Searles will return?" - -"About six-thirty or seven o'clock." - -Five hours to wait. - -And what if Caswell asked me what I had found out in the meantime? I -didn't want to tell him anything until I had talked it over with that -woman Searles first. - -"Where is this Civic Welfare meeting?" - -She told me. - -Five minutes later, I was in my car, heading for Watashaw, driving -considerably faster than my usual speed and keeping a careful watch for -highway patrol cars as the speedometer climbed. - - * * * * * - -The town meeting hall and theater was a big place, probably with lots -of small rooms for different clubs. I went in through the center door -and found myself in the huge central hall where some sort of rally was -being held. A political-type rally--you know, cheers and chants, with -bunting already down on the floor, people holding banners, and plenty -of enthusiasm and excitement in the air. Someone was making a speech up -on the platform. Most of the people there were women. - -I wondered how the Civic Welfare League could dare hold its meeting at -the same time as a political rally that could pull its members away. -The group with Mrs. Searles was probably holding a shrunken and almost -memberless meeting somewhere in an upper room. - -There probably was a side door that would lead upstairs. - -While I glanced around, a pretty girl usher put a printed bulletin in -my hand, whispering, "Here's one of the new copies." As I attempted to -hand it back, she retreated. "Oh, you can keep it. It's the new one. -Everyone's supposed to have it. We've just printed up six thousand -copies to make sure there'll be enough to last." - -The tall woman on the platform had been making a driving, forceful -speech about some plans for rebuilding Watashaw's slum section. It -began to penetrate my mind dimly as I glanced down at the bulletin in -my hands. - -"Civic Welfare League of Watashaw. The United Organization of Church -and Secular Charities." That's what it said. Below began the rules of -membership. - -I looked up. The speaker, with a clear, determined voice and conscious, -forceful gestures, had entered the homestretch of her speech, an appeal -to the civic pride of all citizens of Watashaw. - -"With a bright and glorious future--potentially without poor and -without uncared-for ill--potentially with no ugliness, no vistas which -are not beautiful--the best people in the best planned town in the -country--the jewel of the United States." - -She paused and then leaned forward intensely, striking her clenched -hand on the speaker's stand with each word for emphasis. - -"_All we need is more members. Now get out there and recruit!_" - -I finally recognized Mrs. Searles, as an answering sudden blast of -sound half deafened me. The crowd was chanting at the top of its lungs: -"Recruit! Recruit!" - -Mrs. Searles stood still at the speaker's table and behind her, -seated in a row of chairs, was a group that was probably the board of -directors. It was mostly women, and the women began to look vaguely -familiar, as if they could be members of the sewing circle. - -I put my lips close to the ear of the pretty usher while I turned over -the stiff printed bulletin on a hunch. "How long has the League been -organized?" On the back of the bulletin was a constitution. - -She was cheering with the crowd, her eyes sparkling. "I don't know," -she answered between cheers. "I only joined two days ago. Isn't it -wonderful?" - -I went into the quiet outer air and got into my car with my skin -prickling. Even as I drove away, I could hear them. They were singing -some kind of organization song with the tune of "Marching through -Georgia." - -Even at the single glance I had given it, the constitution looked -exactly like the one we had given the Watashaw Sewing Circle. - -All I told Caswell when I got back was that the sewing circle had -changed its name and the membership seemed to be rising. - - * * * * * - -Next day, after calling Mrs. Searles, I placed some red stars on my -graph for the first three months. They made a nice curve, rising more -steeply as it reached the fourth month. They had picked up their first -increase in membership simply by amalgamating with all the other types -of charity organizations in Watashaw, changing the club name with each -fusion, but keeping the same constitution--the constitution with the -bright promise of advantages as long as there were always new members -being brought in. - -By the fifth month, the League had added a mutual baby-sitting service -and had induced the local school board to add a nursery school to the -town service, so as to free more women for League activity. But charity -must have been completely organized by then, and expansion had to be in -other directions. - -Some real estate agents evidently had been drawn into the whirlpool -early, along with their ideas. The slum improvement plans began to -blossom and take on a tinge of real estate planning later in the month. - -The first day of the sixth month, a big two page spread appeared in -the local paper of a mass meeting which had approved a full-fledged -scheme for slum clearance of Watashaw's shack-town section, plus plans -for rehousing, civic building, and rezoning. _And_ good prospects -for attracting some new industries to the town, industries which had -already been contacted and seemed interested by the privileges offered. - -And with all this, an arrangement for securing and distributing to the -club members _alone_ most of the profit that would come to the town in -the form of a rise in the price of building sites and a boom in the -building industry. The profit distributing arrangement was the same one -that had been built into the organization plan for the distribution -of the small profits of membership fees and honorary promotions. It -was becoming an openly profitable business. Membership was rising more -rapidly now. - -By the second week of the sixth month, news appeared in the local paper -that the club had filed an application to incorporate itself as the -Watashaw Mutual Trade and Civic Development Corporation, and all the -local real estate promoters had finished joining en masse. The Mutual -Trade part sounded to me as if the Chamber of Commerce was on the point -of being pulled in with them, ideas, ambitions and all. - -I chuckled while reading the next page of the paper, on which a local -politician was reported as having addressed the club with a long -flowery oration on their enterprise, charity, and civic spirit. He -had been made an honorary member. If he allowed himself to be made a -_full_ member with its contractual obligations and its lures, if the -politicians went into this, too.... - -I laughed, filing the newspaper with the other documents on the -Watashaw test. These proofs would fascinate any businessman with the -sense to see where his bread was buttered. A businessman is constantly -dealing with organizations, including his own, and finding them either -inert, cantankerous, or both. Caswell's formula could be a handle to -grasp them with. Gratitude alone would bring money into the university -in carload lots. - - * * * * * - -The end of the sixth month came. The test was over and the end reports -were spectacular. Caswell's formulas were proven to the hilt. - -After reading the last newspaper reports, I called him up. - -"Perfect, Wilt, _perfect_! I can use this Watashaw thing to get you so -many fellowships and scholarships and grants for your department that -you'll think it's snowing money!" - -He answered somewhat disinterestedly, "I've been busy working with -students on their research papers and marking tests--not following the -Watashaw business at all, I'm afraid. You say the demonstration went -well and you're satisfied?" - -He was definitely putting on a chill. We were friends now, but -obviously he was still peeved whenever he was reminded that I had -doubted that his theory could work. And he was using its success to -rub my nose in the realization that I had been wrong. A man with a -string of degrees after his name is just as human as anyone else. I had -needled him pretty hard that first time. - -"I'm satisfied," I acknowledged. "I was wrong. The formulas work -beautifully. Come over and see my file of documents on it if you want a -boost for your ego. Now let's see the formula for stopping it." - -He sounded cheerful again. "I didn't complicate that organization -with negatives. I wanted it to _grow_. It falls apart naturally when -it stops growing for more than two months. It's like the great stock -boom before an economic crash. Everyone in it is prosperous as long as -the prices just keep going up and new buyers come into the market, but -they all knew what would happen if it stopped growing. You remember, we -built in as one of the incentives that the members know they are going -to lose if membership stops growing. Why, if I tried to stop it now, -they'd cut my throat." - -I remembered the drive and frenzy of the crowd in the one early meeting -I had seen. They probably would. - -"No," he continued. "We'll just let it play out to the end of its -tether and die of old age." - -"When will that be?" - -"It can't grow past the female population of the town. There are only -so many women in Watashaw, and some of them don't like sewing." - -The graph on the desk before me began to look sinister. Surely Caswell -must have made some provision for-- - -"You underestimate their ingenuity," I said into the phone. "Since they -wanted to expand, they didn't stick to sewing. They went from general -charity to social welfare schemes to something that's pretty close to -an incorporated government. The name is now the Watashaw Mutual Trade -and Civic Development Corporation, and they're filing an application -to change it to Civic Property Pool and Social Dividend, membership -contractual, open to all. That social dividend sounds like a Technocrat -climbed on the band wagon, eh?" - -While I spoke, I carefully added another red star to the curve above -the thousand member level, checking with the newspaper that still lay -open on my desk. The curve was definitely some sort of log curve now, -growing more rapidly with each increase. - -"Leaving out practical limitations for a moment, where does the formula -say it will stop?" I asked. - -"When you run out of people to join it. But after all, there are only -so many people in Watashaw. It's a pretty small town." - - * * * * * - -"They've opened a branch office in New York," I said carefully into the -phone, a few weeks later. - -With my pencil, very carefully, I extended the membership curve from -where it was then. - -After the next doubling, the curve went almost straight up and off the -page. - -Allowing for a lag of contagion from one nation to another, depending -on how much their citizens intermingled, I'd give the rest of the world -about twelve years. - -There was a long silence while Caswell probably drew the same graph -in his own mind. Then he laughed weakly. "Well, you asked me for a -demonstration." - -That was as good an answer as any. We got together and had lunch in a -bar, if you can call it lunch. The movement we started will expand by -hook or by crook, by seduction or by bribery or by propaganda or by -conquest, but it will expand. And maybe a total world government will -be a fine thing--until it hits the end of its rope in twelve years or -so. - -What happens then, I don't know. - -But I don't want anyone to pin that on me. From now on, if anyone asks -me, I've never heard of Watashaw. - - - - - -End of Project Gutenberg's The Snowball Effect, by Katherine MacLean - -*** END OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE SNOWBALL EFFECT *** - -***** This file should be named 50766.txt or 50766.zip ***** -This and all associated files of various formats will be found in: - http://www.gutenberg.org/5/0/7/6/50766/ - -Produced by Greg Weeks, Mary Meehan and the Online -Distributed Proofreading Team at http://www.pgdp.net - -Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions will -be renamed. - -Creating the works from print editions not protected by U.S. copyright -law means that no one owns a United States copyright in these works, -so the Foundation (and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United -States without permission and without paying copyright -royalties. 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