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diff --git a/.gitattributes b/.gitattributes new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6833f05 --- /dev/null +++ b/.gitattributes @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +* text=auto +*.txt text +*.md text diff --git a/39466-8.txt b/39466-8.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3e6bb29 --- /dev/null +++ b/39466-8.txt @@ -0,0 +1,5130 @@ +The Project Gutenberg eBook, Reading the Weather, by Thomas Morris +Longstreth, Illustrated by Richard F. Warren + + +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + + + + + +Title: Reading the Weather + + +Author: Thomas Morris Longstreth + + + +Release Date: April 17, 2012 [eBook #39466] + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: ISO-8859-1 + + +***START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK READING THE WEATHER*** + + +E-text prepared by the Online Distributed Proofreading Team +(http://www.pgdp.net) from page images generously made available by +Internet Archive (http://archive.org) + + + +Note: Project Gutenberg also has an HTML version of this + file which includes the original illustrations. + See 39466-h.htm or 39466-h.zip: + (http://www.gutenberg.org/files/39466/39466-h/39466-h.htm) + or + (http://www.gutenberg.org/files/39466/39466-h.zip) + + + Images of the original pages are available through + Internet Archive. See + http://archive.org/details/readingweather00longrich + + + + + +READING THE WEATHER + +[Illustration: SHOWER BEHIND VALLEY FORGE + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_] + + +READING THE WEATHER + +by + +T. MORRIS LONGSTRETH + +Illustrated with Photographs by Richard F. Warren + +Outing Handbooks +Number 43 + + + + + + + +New York +Outing Publishing Company +MCMXV + +Copyright, 1915, by +Outing Publishing Company +All rights reserved. + + + + + DEDICATED + with love, to my grandmother + MARY GIBSON HALDEMAN + herself responsible for so + much sunshine. + + + + +CONTENTS + + + CHAPTER PAGE + + FORECAST i + + I OUR WELL-ORDERED ATMOSPHERE 11 + + II THE CLEAR DAY 20 + + III THE STORM CYCLE 42 + + IV SKY SIGNS FOR CAMPERS 64 + THE CLOUDS 65 + THE WINDS 76 + TEMPERATURES 86 + RAIN AND SNOW 99 + DEW AND FROST 112 + THE THUNDERSTORM EXPOSED 116 + THE TORNADO 129 + THE HURRICANE 133 + THE CLOUDBURST 139 + THE HALO 140 + + V THE BAROMETER 147 + + VI THE SEASONS 157 + + VII THE WEATHER BUREAU 167 + + VIII A CHAPTER OF EXPLOSIONS 175 + CONDENSATIONS 185 + SIGNS OF FAIR WEATHER 185 + SIGNS OF COMING STORM 187 + SIGNS OF CLEARING 189 + WHEN WILL IT RAIN? 190 + SIGNS OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE 191 + SOME UNSOLVED WEATHER PROBLEMS 192 + WHAT THE WEATHER FLAGS MEAN 193 + OUR FOUR WORLD'S RECORDS,--AND OTHERS 195 + + + + +ILLUSTRATIONS + + + Shower Behind Valley Forge _Frontispiece_ + + PAGE + + Cirrus Deepening to Cirro-Stratus 16 + + Cirro Stratus with Cirro-Cumulus Beneath 32 + + Cirro-Cumulus to Alto-Stratus 48 + + Alto-Stratus 80 + + Cumulus 96 + + Stratus 128 + + Nimbus 160 + + + + +FORECAST + + +Science is certainly coming into her own nowadays,--and into everybody +else's. Every activity of man and most of Nature's have felt her +quickening hand. Her eye is upon the rest. Drinking is going out because +the drinker is inefficient. The fly is going out because he carries germs. +And for everything that goes out something else comes in that makes people +healthier and more comfortable, and, perhaps, wiser. + +One strange thing about this flood-tide of science is that it overwhelms +the old, buttressed superstitions the easiest of all, once it really sets +about it. For instance, nothing could have been better fortified for +centuries than the fact that night air is injurious and should be shut out +of house. Then, science turned its eye upon night air, found it a little +cooler, a trifle moister, and somewhat cleaner than day air with the +result that we all invite it indoors, now, and even go out to meet it. + +Once interested in the air, science soon began to take up that +commonplace but baffling phase of it called the weather. Now, of all +matters under the sun the weather was the deepest intrenched in +superstition and hearsay. From the era of Noah it had been made the +subject of more remarks unrelieved by common sense than any other. It was +at once the commonest topic for conversation and the rarest for thought. +Considering the opportunities for study of the weather this conclusion, we +must admit, is more surprising than complimentary to the human race. But +it is so. The fact that science had to face was this: that the weather had +been and remained a tremendous, dimly-recognized factor in our level of +living. So talk about it all must. And science set about finding some easy +fundamental truths to talk instead of the hereditary gossip about +old-fashioned winters or the usual meaningless conversational coin. + +Two groups of men had always known a good deal about the weather from +experience: the sailor had to know it to save his life, and the farmer had +to cultivate a weather eye along with his early peas. But the ordinary +business man (and wife), the town-dweller, and even the suburbanite knew +so few of the proven facts that the weather from day to day, from hour to +hour, was a continual puzzle to them. The rain not only fell upon the +just and unjust but it fell unquestioned, or misunderstood. + +At last Science established some sort of a Weather Bureau in 1870, in our +country, and after this had triumphed over great handicaps, the Government +set it upon its present footing in 1891. An intelligent interest in the +weather was in likelihood of being aroused by maps, pamphlets, frost and +flood warnings that saved dollars and lives. Then suddenly, or almost +suddenly, a new force was felt in every community. It was the call of +outdoors. The new land of woods and lakes was explored. Men learned that +living by bread alone (without air) made a very stuffy existence. Hence +the man in town opened all his windows at night, the suburban majority +planned to build sleeping porches, the youngsters begged to go to camp, +their fathers went hunting and fishing in increasing numbers, and, most +important of all, the fathers' wives began to accompany them into the +woods. + +Thus, living has been turned inside out,--the very state of things that +old scientist Plato recommended some thirty thousand moons ago. And among +the manifestations of nature the weather is holding its place, important +and even fascinating. For the person who most depends on umbrellas and the +subway in the city needs to watch the sky most carefully in the woods. +That old academic question as to whether it be wise or foolish to come in +out of the wet was never settled by the wilderness veteran. The veteran's +wife settles it very quickly. She considers the cloud. When the commuter +goes camping he rightly likes his comforts. A wet skin is not one of +these. Therefore he studies the feel of the wind. + +And so it comes about that the person who talks about storm centers and +areas of high pressure and cumulus clouds is no longer regarded as +slightly unhinged. Men are eager to learn the laws of the snowstorm and +the cold wave; for, with the knowledge that snow is not poison and cold +not necessarily discomfort, January has been opened up for enjoyments that +July could never give. + +Bookwriting and camping are both explained by the same fact,--a certain +fondness for the thing. I wanted to see the commoner weather pinned down +to facts. The following chapters resulted. They constitute a sort of +Overhead Baedeker, it being their pleasure to show up the sureties of the +sun and rain and to star the weather signs that can be relied upon. For, +after all, even the elements, although unruled, are law-abiding. + + + + +READING THE WEATHER + + + + +CHAPTER I + +OUR WELL-ORDERED ATMOSPHERE + + +If there is anything that has been overlooked more than another it is our +atmosphere. But it absolutely cannot be avoided--in books on the weather. +It deserves a chapter, anyway, because if it were not for the atmosphere +this earth of ours would be a wizened and sterile lump. It would float +uselessly about in the general cosmos like the moon. + +To be sure the earth does not loom very large in the eye of the sun. It +receives a positively trifling fraction of the total output of sunheat. So +negligible is this amount that it would not be worth our mentioning if we +did not owe our existence to it. It is thanks to the atmosphere, however, +that the earth attains this (borrowed) importance. It is thanks to this +thin layer of gases that we are protected from that fraction of sunheat +which, however trifling when compared with the whole, would otherwise be +sufficient to fry us all in a second. Without this gas wrapping we would +all freeze (if still unfried) immediately after sunset. The atmosphere +keeps us in a sort of thermos globe, unmindful of the burning power of the +great star, and of the uncalculated cold of outer space. + +Yet, limitless as it seems to us and inexhaustible, our invaluable +atmosphere is a small thing after all. Half of its total bulk is +compressed into the first three and a half miles upward. Only one +sixty-fourth of it lies above the twenty-one mile limit. Compared with the +thickness of the earth this makes a very thin envelope. + +Light as air, we say, forgetting that this stuff that looks so thin and +inconsequential weighs fifteen pounds to the square inch. We walk around +carrying our fourteen tons gaily enough. The only reason that we don't +grumble is because the gases press evenly in all directions permeating our +tissues and thereby supporting this crushing burden. A layer of water +thirty-four feet thick weighs just about as much as this air-pack under +which we feel so buoyant. But if these gases get in motion we feel their +pressure. We say the wind is strong to-day. + +As it blows along the surface of the earth this wind is mostly nitrogen, +oxygen, moisture, and dust. The nitrogen occupies nearly eight-tenths of a +given bulk of air, the oxygen two-tenths, and the moisture anything up to +one-twentieth. Five other gases are present in small quantities. The dust +and the water vapor occupy space independently of the rest. As one goes up +mountains the water vapor increases for a couple of thousand feet and then +decreases to the seven mile limit after which it has almost completely +vanished. The lightest gases have been detected as high up as two hundred +miles and scientists think that hydrogen, the lightest of all, may escape +altogether from the restraint of gravity. One strange fact about all of +these gases is that they do not form a separate chemical combination, +although they are thoroughly mixed. + +At first glance the extreme readiness of the atmosphere to carry dust and +bacteria does not seem a point in its favor. In reality it is. Most +bacteria are really allies of the human race. They benefit us by producing +fermentations and disintegrations of soils that prepare them for plant +food. It is a pity that the few disease breeding types of bacteria should +have given the family a bad name. Without bacteria the sheltering +atmosphere would have nothing but desert rock to protect. + +Further, rain is accounted for only by the dust. Of course this sounds +very near the world's record in absurdities. But it is a half truth at +least, for moisture cannot condense on nothing. Every drop of rain, every +globule of mist must have a nucleus. Consequently each wind that blows, +each volcano that erupts is laying up dust for a rainy day. Apparently the +atmosphere is empty. Actually it is full enough of dust-nuclei to outfit a +fullgrown fog if the dewpoint should be favorable. If there were no dust +in the air all shadows would be intensest black, the sunlight blinding. + +But the dust particles fulfill their greatest mission as heat +collectors,--they and the particles of water vapor which have embraced +them. It is in reality owing to these water globules and not to the +atmosphere that supports them that we are enabled to live in such +comfortable temperatures. For the air strata above seven miles where the +tides of oxygen and nitrogen have rid themselves of water and dust absorb +very little of the solar radiation. The heat is grabbed by the lowest +layer of air as it goes by. The air snatches it both going and coming. The +little particles get about half of it on the way down and when it is +radiated back very little escapes them. + +So it comes about that the heavy moist air near the earth is the warmest +of all. It would, of course, get very warm if, as it collected its heat, +it didn't have a tendency to rise. As it rises, moreover, it must fight +gravity, that arch enemy of all rising things. And as it fights it loses +energy, which is heat. So high altitudes and low temperatures are found +together for these two reasons. But after the limit of moisture content +has been reached the temperature gets no lower according to reliable +investigations. Instead a monotony of 459° below zero eternally +prevails--459° is called the absolute zero of space. + +The vertical heating arrangements of the atmosphere appear somewhat +irregular. But horizontally it is in a much worse way. The surface of the +globe is three quarters water and one quarter land and irregularly +arranged at that. The shiny water surfaces reflect a good deal of the heat +which they receive, they use up the heat in evaporation and what they do +absorb penetrates far. The land surfaces, on the contrary, absorb most of +the heat received, but it does not penetrate to any depth. As a +consequence of these differences land warms up about four times as +quickly as water and cools off about four times as fast. Therefore the +temperature of air over continents is liable to much more rapid and +extreme changes than the air over the oceans. + +The disparity of temperature is also rendered much greater because of +differing areas of cloud and clear skies, because of interfering mountain +masses, because of the change from day to night, or the constant progress +of the seasons. At first blush it seems remarkable that the atmosphere +should not be hopelessly unsettled in its habits, that there should belong +to it any hint of system. As a matter of fact, in the main its courses are +as well-ordered as the sun's. Cause and not caprice are at the bottom of +the wind's listings. Its one desire is rest. + + +[Illustration: CIRRUS DEEPENING TO CIRRO-STRATUS + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_ + +Cirrus clouds first appear as feathery lines converging toward one or two +points on the horizon, often merging into bands of darker clouds, arranged +horizontally. A sky like this appears when there is little wind. If the +wind shifts to an easterly direction by way of north there will likely be +snow within 24 hours; if it works around by way of the southwest and south +36 hours will probably pass before rain. If the mares' tails, as here, are +absent and yet the stratified clouds are present there is little +likelihood of a storm. Cirrus clouds precede every disturbance of +magnitude. Sometimes they are hidden by a lower cloud layer.] + + +But rest it rarely succeeds in finding. Forever warming, rising, cooling, +falling, it rushes about to regain its equilibrium. With so many opposing +forces at work the calm day is the real marvel, our weeks of Indian Summer +the ranking miracle of our climate. The very evolution of the myriad +patches of air quilted over the earth with their different opportunities +to become heated, to cool their heels, precludes stability in our so +called Temperate Zone. But over great stretches of the earth's surface +conditions are continuous enough to discipline the atmosphere into +strict routine. Conjure the globe before your eyes and you will find the +scheme of atmospheric circulation something like this: + +A broad band of heated air perpetually rises from the sweltering +equatorial belt of lands and seas. The supply never ceases, the warming +process goes on night and day, and to a great height the light warm +incense mounts. Then, cooling, from this altitude it begins to run down +hill toward the poles. This is happening all the way around the globe. So +naturally the common centers, the poles, cannot accommodate all this +downrush of air. Therefore as it approaches the goal it falls into a +majestic file about the center, very much as water does in running out of +a hole in the center of a circular basin. The nearer north, the cooler +this vast maelstrom grows and the nearer has it sunk to the earth. It +descends circuitously and, by the force arising from the earth's rotation, +is sheered to the right in the northern hemisphere, to the left in the +southern. + +Watching the water circle out of the basin you will notice the outside +whirl is in no hurry to get to the center. This corresponds to the +easterly trades of commerce, geography, and fiction. The direction of the +upper currents flowing back to the poles is from southwest to northeast; +but in our middle zones this becomes almost from west to east, is constant +and is known to the profession as the prevailing westerlies. + +Look up some day when wisps of clouds are floating very high. You will +notice that their port is in the east, mattering not what wind may be +blowing where you are. They are above the petty disturbances of the +shallow surface winds. They follow a Gulf Stream of immeasurable grandeur. +Onward, always onward, they sail, emblems of a great serenity. + +Beneath this vast drift of air, which increases in velocity as it nears +the pole, is an undertow from two to three miles thick. It is the +movements of this undertow that affect our lives. These movements are +influenced by all the changes of temperature and by the configurations of +land. They take the form of whirls. These whirls may be small eddies, +local in effect, or vast cyclones with diameters of fifteen hundred miles. +Small or large they roll along under the Westerlies, translated by +friction, and invariably moving for most of their course in an easterly +direction, like their tractor above. They circle across the United States +every few days. Their courses do not vary a great deal, and yet enough to +make each one a matter for conjecture. And all the conjecturing centers +upon the condition of the atmosphere,--the changing atmosphere which is +yet so dependable. + +The weather we are used to, the daily weather that catches us unprepared, +and yet that does not mistreat us all the time is the product of these +little whirls, which are so remotely connected with the grander +atmospheric movements of our planet. Remembering this, we can at last come +back to earth and set about our real business which is to see why certain +kinds of weather come at such uncertain times and how to tell when they +will arrive. + + + + +CHAPTER II + +THE CLEAR DAY + + +We owe our fair weather to that department of atmospheric activity called +anticyclone by the weatherman. The anticyclone is an accumulation of air +which has become colder than the air surrounding it. This accumulation +oftener than not has an area near the center where the air is coldest. +About this coldest area the air currents revolve in the direction of a +clock's hands. And since this cold air is contracted and denser than its +warmer environment it has a perpetual tendency to whirl outward from the +center into this warmer environment. + +One comes to think, therefore, of the anticyclone as a huge pyramid of +cold air moving slowly across the country from west to east and all the +while melting down on all sides, like a plate of ice-cream, into the +surrounding territory. It is such an immense accumulation that often while +its head is reared over Montana the first shivers of its approach are +beginning to be felt in Texas and Pennsylvania. It does not extend +equally far, however, to the north and west of its head, which is really +sometimes where its tail ought to be. That is, a long slope of increasing +pressure and cold will sweep in a gentle gradient from Pennsylvania to +Montana and will then decrease by a very steep gradient to the Pacific +Coast. + +The anticyclone draws its power from the inexhaustible supplies of cold +air from the upper levels. This air is very dry and accounts for the +almost invariably clear skies of the anticyclone. + +In winter when the intensity of all the atmospheric activities is greatly +increased, the anticyclone develops into the cold wave. The rapidly rising +pressure rears its head and rushes along upon the heels of a storm like a +vast tidal wave at sixty miles an hour, tumbling the mercury thirty, +forty, fifty degrees. + +These cold waves first appear in the northwest. They cannot well originate +over either ocean and a high-pressure area building up over the southern +half of the country will not attain the sufficient degree of frigidity to +earn the title, for even cold waves have been standardized by the +Government. But although nearly all the cold waves choose Montana or the +Dakotas as a base, they have at least two definite lines of action. Those +which are born amid the mountains or on the great plains of Montana have a +curious habit of bombarding the Texas coast before starting on their +eastward march. It is not unusual for us to read of zero weather in the +Panhandle and freezing on the Gulf while the mercury may still be standing +as high as fifty in New York City. + +It is this rapid onslaught from Montana to Texas that produces those +notorious blizzards of that section called northers, during which the +cattle used to be frozen on the hoof. The record time for a drive of this +extent is about twelve hours and the normal about twenty-four which gives +scant time for the Weather Bureau to warn the vast interests of the +impending assault. When the cold wave, after following this path, does +swing toward the Atlantic Coast, as most of them do, it has lost interest +and usually produces only seasonably cold weather along the Appalachians. + +Those cold waves that recruit their strength in Canada and enter the +United States through Minnesota or, rarely, this side of the Lakes move +along the border and supply intensely cold weather for a night or two to +New England and the Middle Atlantic States. + +Cold waves almost always follow a storm. The storm, being an area of low +pressure makes a fit receptacle for the surplus of the high pressure, and +since the whole business of the weather is to seek peace and pursue it, +the greater the discrepancies the more violent the pursuit. Consequently +we have the spectacle of a ridge of cold dry air following and trying to +level up a fleeing hollow of warm moist air--but rarely succeeding. This +principle of action and reaction is almost the sole principle of the +weather and is nowhere more clearly demonstrated than in the winter's +succession of storm and cold wave. + +In summer the anticyclones are not only actually but relatively more +moderate than in winter. But their influence is still the same,--clear +skies, cooler nights, dry, westerly winds. During the year the anticyclone +furnishes us with about sixty per cent. of our weather. The cyclone is +responsible for the remaining forty per cent. The weather depends on the +cyclone for its variety and upon the anticyclone for its reputation. So it +is well to be able to recognize an anticyclone when one appears. + +The first and most reliable symptom of the approach of an anticyclone is +the west wind. This sign is valid the country over, and is one of the +very few signs that hold true for most of the North Temperate Zone. In +summer over our country the west wind comes from the southwest, to be +Irish, and in winter from the northwest. But for nearly all of our +forty-eight states for nearly all of the year the westerly winds are those +that bring us fair days and nights. And it is these crisp, clear days and +cloudless, brilliant nights which we have in mind when we boast to English +friends of our American weather. + +The west wind is so popular because it has a slight downward flowing +tendency. It also blows from land to sea over all America except the +narrow Pacific coast. These downward, outward directions allow it to +gather only enough moisture to keep it from becoming seriously dry. Its +upper sources supply it with ozone. Its density gives it weight and by its +superior weight it prevails. It dries roads faster than a brace of suns +could do it. It is tonic. And curiously enough, although the anticyclone +loads half a ton excess weight upon us we like it. The greater the burden +the more we feel like leaping and shouting. Our good cheer seems to be +ground out of us, like street pianos. + +The reverse holds, too. For when the anticyclone moves off us and the +cyclone hovers over us, removing half a ton of pressure, instead of +feeling relieved we feel depressed, out of spirit. The animals share this +reaction with us. In fact barnyards antedated barometers as forecasters, +because all the domestic creatures, with pigs in particular, evidenced the +disagreeable leniency of the low pressure areas upon their persons. + + "Grumphie smells the weather + An' Grumphie smells the wun' + He kens when clouds will gather + An' smoor the blinkin' sun." + +The only trouble about this rather extravagant tribute to the pig, +versatile though he is, is that he can tell only a very few hours ahead +about the coming changes and it takes so much more skill to judge what his +actions mean than to read the face of the sky that the science of +meteorology finally comes to supplant barnyardology. + +The coming of the anticyclone is foretold by the shifting of the wind from +any quarter to the west. The course that the center of the anticyclone is +keeping may be watched by the same agency. Since the circulation from the +cone of cold air follows the hour hands of a clock it follows that if the +center is moving north of you the wind, blowing outward from the center, +will work from west to northwest and from northwest to north and slightly +east of north. + +If the wind has shifted into the west on a Wednesday, it will likely be +cold by Wednesday night and colder on Thursday. By Friday morning the wind +will be coming from the north, likely, with the lowest temperature of all. +By Saturday the cold will moderate, the wind will tire and gradually die +to a calm or become weakly variable. The four day supremacy of the +anticyclone will be over. But, mind you, there are a dozen variations of +this routine. I am only suggesting a usual one. + +If after blowing two or three days from the west the wind shifts to the +southwest and south, you may know that the central cold area is passing +south of you and that its intensity will not be great. While these +anticyclones that float down and to the right of their normal path linger +longer, they are never so severely cold, nor, alas, so uniformly clear as +the others. It is a profound law of anticyclones and even more +particularly of cyclones, that if they deviate to the right they weaken, +if they are pushed by an obstacle to the left they increase greatly in +intensity. + +Occasionally the central portion of an anticyclone passes over your +locality. Then the wind will fall. The frost will be keen and the cold +will be notably dry and invigorating. In summer although the sunlight may +be powerfully bright and the heat great, yet the air will have a buoyant +effect, the body a resilience. And the nights will cool swiftly. Soon +after the center passes from the locality a wind will spring up from the +east with rapidly rising temperature and increased humidity. + +The coldest part of the anticyclone is not, as one would suppose, at the +center, but in advance of it; and its authority, like a schoolmaster's, is +rapidly dissipated after its back is turned upon a place. + +The intensity of an anticyclone is measured by its wind velocity and by +the degree of cold obtaining under its influence. But the greatest cold +occurs rarely in conjunction with the greatest velocity of the wind. The +calms that occur at sunrise enable radiation to take an extra spurt which +pushes the mercury lower by a degree or so than happens when the wind is +blowing. But, windy or calm, the period about sunrise is normally the +coldest of the day, even extending in midwinter for as much as half an +hour after sunrise, so slow are the feeble rays at restoring the balance +of loss and gain of heat. + +The greatest falls occur at the advent of the cold wave, no matter whether +it arrives at ten in the morning or at midnight. If the temperature +starts to decline gradually during the day, a further and decided fall may +be expected at nightfall if the sky is clear. And if the temperature rises +gradually during the night the normal processes are being displaced and a +change from fair to foul is a surety. In summer the hottest time of day is +not at noon, any more than the coldest part of the winter day was at +midnight, for the reason that the sun can pour in its heat faster than the +earth can radiate it, and the hour for the maximum temperature is pushed +as far along toward evening as four or five or even six o'clock. + +The average anticyclone continues its influence for clearness for about +four days. Some, however, hurry the whole thing through in two. Others are +interrupted by a more vigorous cyclone and are put to rout. Others are +held up by an inherent weakness and are forced to mark time over one +locality until strengthened or dissipated. And a few great ones hold sway +over the country for a week. These choose the north-center of the country +in which to locate. There they pile up the cold air until its very weight +causes it to move majestically on. Its skirts sweep the Gulf coast where +they are a bit bedraggled by invading cyclones. It gives the New +Englanders a fortnight of nipping, brisk days and the mercury in +Minnesota and the Dakotas does not emerge above zero. Once, in Montana, +one of these refrigerating systems established the record of sixty-three +degrees below zero. But in Siberia where the immense extent of the land +surface collaborates with a prolonged night, an anticyclone built up an +area of superior chilliness that left a world's record of ninety-one +below. + +In summer a succession of these highs causes the frequent droughts of +weeks which harass the West and New England. The air becomes so dry that +it parches and then shrivels the green leaves. Any little cyclones that, +under ordinary conditions, would suck in moist air from the Gulf and +relieve the situation with a rain are dried out and frustrated by the +unclouded sun. It requires a cyclone of great depth to overthrow the +supremacy of these summer anticyclones. + +While the anticyclone furnishes fair weather the sky is not necessarily or +even usually free from clouds under its influence. In summer the +evaporation during the long days overloads the air for the time being. +Normally about eleven in the morning little balls and patches of white +clouds dot the blue. These increase in number and size until about three +in the afternoon when they will have grown little black bellies and +fluffy white tops. By five they will have dwindled and by eight entirely +vanished. These heaped clouds, known as cumulus, are a guarantee of a +normal atmosphere and continued fair weather. They mean that currents of +warm, moist air have risen until they have struck a level so cool as to +cause them to condense part of their moisture. This condensation sinks +until it enters a warmer stratum and the cloud is dissipated. The total +movement is a reasonable exchange that preserves the equilibrium of the +air, very much as a person bends one way and then another to maintain his +balance. + +In winter there is not such an opportunity offered and the few clouds that +form because of the daily variation in temperature are flatter and are +called stratus clouds. Sometimes these stratus clouds may cover the sky at +midday, but in thin platings and not leadenly. In winter as in summer they +tend to disappear toward evening. They are often accompanied by an +unpleasant wind, but rarely by the snow flurry which is the "April shower" +of the winter months. + +But when the snow flurry does come there is no better sign for the +woodsman of coming cold; it never fails. The morning will have begun +brilliantly, but soon great summery puffs of cloud form and increase and +darken on their under sides. Their tops are vague and wear a veil. It is +the snow. The reason is simple. The coming anticyclone strikes the upper +air before it hits the earth's surface. The sudden cold causes rapid +condensation. Hence the flurries. But the anticyclone is an agent of +dryness, hence their short duration. Sometimes the veil of snow does not +reach the earth. Sometimes it blots out everything in a spirited squall. +But it never lasts long, except in the northwest states. And it is +invariably followed by a period of colder weather. + +In summer local evaporation may be so long-continued or so vigorous that +the cumulus clouds cannot hold all their moisture content when cooled. A +shower is the result, usually a trifling one and mostly without thunder. +The great thunderstorms are always in connection with the passing of a +cyclone. The small heat thunderstorms are only the indulgences of a spell +of fair weather. These tiny showers are daily and sometimes hourly +accompaniments of clear weather in the mountains. The air warms rapidly in +the valleys and is speedily cooled on rushing up a mountain side and a +threat and a sprinkle are the result. When a performance of this sort is +going on nobody need fear unpleasant weather of long duration. + +Another pledge of a clear day that does not appear too credible on the +face of it is the morning fog in summer. In winter it is a different +matter. In August and September particularly the rapidly lengthening +nights allow so much heat to evaporate that the surplus moisture in the +air is condensed to the depth of several hundred feet. By ten o'clock the +sun has eaten into this lowest stratum, heated it and yet begins to +decline in power before the balance swings the other way, so that a +cloudless day often follows a fog in those months. About three mornings of +fog, however, are enough to discourage the sun and a rain follows. Of +course this is because the anticyclone with its special properties has +been losing power. + +When these conditions of clear nights with no wind follow the first two or +three windy days of the anticyclone, particularly in autumn and spring, +frost results. In winter the chances that a fog will be dissipated are +rather slim. But if it shows a tendency to rise all may yet be well. + + +[Illustration: CIRRO-STRATUS WITH CIRRO-CUMULUS BENEATH + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_ + +The fine-spun lines of the cirrus proper drag this veil of whitish cloud +over the sky. The sun sometimes is surrounded by a colored halo due to the +refraction of the light by the ice crystals. But more often it vanishes +behind the veil. The mottled clouds below the veil show that a rather +rapid condensation of the moisture in the air is taking place. This sky is +distinctly threatening, although the direction and force of the wind will +more accurately foretell the severity of the coming storm. With this sky +expect rain or snow within 12 hours.] + + +An excellent sign of clear weather is this fact of the morning mist rising +from ravines in the mountains. And even if you haven't any mountain +ravines at command the altitude of clouds can be observed. It is safer to +have them lessen in number rather than increase, scatter rather than +combine. The higher the clouds the finer the weather. And if the sky +through the rifts is a clear untarnished blue the prospects of settled +weather are much better than with fewer clouds and a milky blue sky +beyond. + +After the direction of the wind and the shapes of the clouds the colors of +the sky are a great help in the reading of the morrow's promise. And the +best time to read this promise is in the morning or evening when the half +lights emphasize the coloring. + +Soon after the close observation of cloud colors has commenced the amazing +discovery is made that the same color at sunrise means exactly the reverse +of its meaning at sunset. + + "Sky red in the morning + A sailor's sure warning, + Sky red at night + A sailor's delight." + +Christ seized upon this phenomenon to throw confusion into the Pharisees +and Sadducees when they asked that He would show them a sign from Heaven. +As Matthew reports it:--"He answered and said unto them, When it is +evening ye say, It will be fair weather for the sky is red. And in the +morning It will be foul weather to-day for the sky is red and lowering. O +ye hypocrites, ye can discern the face of the sky; but ye cannot discern +the signs of the times." + +The reasons for this contradictory evidence of color are not nearly so +obvious as the fact itself. Taking the scientist's word for it need not +stretch one's credulity overmuch if he can be followed step by step. He +says that sunlight is white light, and white is the sublime combination of +every color. If no atmosphere existed about us the light would all come +through, leaving the sky black. The atmosphere, however, which is full of +dust and water particles, breaks up these rays, these white sheaves of +light, into their various colors. The longest vibrations, which are the +red, and the shortest, which are the violet, get by and the rest are +turned back, mixing up into the color which we call our blue sky. + +If the dust and water particles grow so large and numerous as to divert +more of the short rays than usual we get a redder glow than usual. This is +most noticeable when the sun and clouds are near the horizon for the air +through which they appear is nearer the earth and consequently dirtier. If +these water globules mass together so as to reflect all the rays alike the +result is a whitish appearance. That is why a fog bank, composed of tiny +droplets, each reflecting with all its might, can make the sky a dull and +uniform gray. + +As evening approaches the temperature of the normal day lowers. As the +temperature lowers it is the tendency of the moisture in the air to +condense about the little dust particles in the air. And as these +particles increase in size their tendency is to reflect more and more of +the waning rays of light. Therefore if the sky is gray in the evening it +means that the atmosphere already contains a good deal of condensed +moisture. If the cooling should go on through the night, as it normally +would, condensation would continue with rain as the likely result. + +If, on the other hand, after the evening's cooling has progressed and yet +the colors near the horizon are prevailingly red it means that there is so +little moisture in the atmosphere that the further increase due to the +night's condensation will not be sufficient to cause rain. Hence the +natural delight of the sailor. + +A gray morning sky implies an atmosphere full of water precisely as an +evening gray does. The difference lies in the ensuing process. By morning +the temperature has reached its lowest point and if this has not been +sufficient to cause cooling to the rainpoint the chance for rain will be +continually lessened by the growing heat of the rising sun. The gray, +therefore, is the normal indication of a clear cool night which has +permitted radiation and therefore condensation to this degree. It is for +this reason that we have the heavy fogs of August and September followed +by cloudless days. + +A red morning sky shows, like the red evening sky, that condensation has +not taken place to any extent. But this is abnormal for a clear night +causes condensation. The red therefore means that a layer of heavy moist +air above the surface levels has prevented the normal radiation. Hence +when the day's evaporation adds more moisture to that already at the +higher levels the total humidity is likely to increase beyond the dewpoint +with the resultant rain. + +These two color auguries are among the most reliable of all the weather +signs. Unfortunately the sunrises are scarcely ever on hand to be examined +except by milkmen. But a careful scrutiny of the sunset will make one +proficient in shades. In summer when the sun burns round and clear-cut and +red on the rim of the horizon the air contains much dust and smoke, the +accompaniment of dry weather. And as dry weather has a way of perpetuating +itself such a sun makes dry and continued weather a safe prophecy. In +winter the same red and flaming sun setting brilliant as new minted gold +is a sure indication of clear and cold weather. In all seasons the light +tints of the evening sky mean the atmosphere at its best. A golden sunset, +a light breeze from the west, a glowing horizon as the sun goes down, slow +fading colors all constitute a hundred to one bet for continued fair +weather. The sunset colors that are surely followed by storm will be +discussed in the next chapter. + +The sky is too little regarded. Architects that do not consider the sky +are behind in their calling. Maxfield Parrish has made himself famous by +allying himself with its seas of color. The hunter can read it and learn +whether he may sleep dry without his tent. Only we who shut ourselves +within rooms and behind newspapers forget that there is a sky--until it +falls and we are taken to a sanitarium. + +From the night itself much may be discovered about the continuance of fair +weather. A sky well sown with stars is a good sign. If only a few stars +are visible the clear spell is about over. Stars twinkle because of abrupt +variation in the temperature of the air strata. If the wind is from the +west cold and clear will result no matter how much may twinkle twinkle +little star. But if he twinkle with the wind from the south or east the +cloud will soon fly. That is the way with these weather signs. One sign +does not make a prophecy. It is the combination that has strength and +reliability. Furthermore the eye must be trained by many comparisons. + +Of all the conditions that make night forecasting easy the later evenings +of the moon are the best. The moon furnishes just the proper amount of +illumination to betray the air conditions. If she swims clear and +triumphant well and good. If she rides bright while dark bellying clouds +sweep over her in summer, inconsequential showers may follow. But if she +disappears by faint degrees behind a thin but close knit curtain of cloud +the clear weather is being definitely concluded. + +A great many changes in the weather take place after three in the morning. +Most campers are accustomed to waking anyway once or twice to replenish +the fire, and a glance at the stars will show the sleepiest what changes +are occurring in the eternal panorama. A man may have gone to bed in +security to get up in a snowstorm, whereas a survey of the skies at three +would have noted the coming change. The habit of waking in the dead of +night,--which isn't really so dead after all,--is not an unpleasant one. +Its compensations are set forth in a beautiful and vivid chapter of +Stewart Edward White's "The Forest." Every camper knows them, and this +added mastery that a knowledge of the skies gives him lends a sense of +power, which lasts until the unexpected happens. + +For the unexpected happens to the best regulated of all forecasters, the +Government. Equipped with every instrument and with an army whose business +is nothing else than to hunt down storms and warn the public, the Weather +Bureau is still surprised fifteen times out of a hundred by unforeseeable +changes in atmospheric pressure. It is scarcely likely then that amateurs +without flawless barometers and without reports of the current weather in +three hundred places could hope to foretell with complete accuracy. But +there is a place for the amateur, aside from his own personal +gratification and profit. The Weather Bureau within the limits of the +present appropriation cannot expect to predict for every village and +borough. That the amateur may do and with as great accuracy for the few +hours immediately in advance. + +The Weather Bureau may predict with this large percentage of +accuracy--85%--for forty-eight hours in advance because its scope is +country wide. It may even forecast in a general way for seven days and +still maintain a considerable advantage over almanac guesswork. But the +man who is relying upon local signs is limited to ten or at most twelve +hours. Of course he may guess beyond that but it is only a guess. The work +that the Bureau does and that he may do within his limits is not +guesswork. Meteorology is an exact science, and forecasting is an art. +Both may be studied now in classes under professors with degrees in the +same way that any other science and art may be studied. The old sort of +weather wisdom which was a startling compound of wisdom, superstition, and +inanity has passed away, or is passing away as rational weather talk +spreads. + +These limits of the layman--ten hours with no instruments--are further +defined by his locality. In mountainous country changes come more quickly +than in level localities, in winter than in summer, so that one's +prophetic time-limit is shortened. + +While the best indications of the clear day are the great fundamental +ones, there are many little signs that bolster up one's confidence in +one's own predictions. The lessened humidity coincident with clear weather +is responsible often for many little household prognostics. Salt is dry. +The windows (of your summer cottage) do not stick. The children are less +restless. Smoke ascends, or if the wind is blowing is not flattened to the +ground. Flies are merely insects, for the time being, and not the devil. +Swallows and the other birds that eat insects fly high because that is +where the insects are. Spiders do not hesitate to make their webs on the +lawn. They welcome dew but distrust rain. Cow and sheep feed quietly, +rarely calling to one another as they do before a storm. In short the +general aspect of these is normal and therefore remains unnoticed. + +But all these household prognostics may be advertising the most placid +weather while only twelve hours away and coming at sixty miles an hour may +be the severest storm of the season. The Weather Bureau with its maps and +barometers follows its every movement. The man in the woods whose comfort +in summer and whose life in winter may depend upon his preparedness for +the approaching storm does well to read its warnings and know its laws. + + + + +CHAPTER III + +THE STORM CYCLE + + +Doubtless those who hope for a Hereafter of unmitigated ease and song, +desire, on this earth, one long, sweet anticyclone. But theirs, in most of +the United States, is disappointment. With an irregularity that seems +perversely regular at times our fair weather is interrupted by a storm +which in turn gives way to some more fair weather or another storm,--there +is no telling which very long in advance. And that is why American weather +ranks high among our speculative interests. + +To emphasize this irregularity a seemingly regular succession of events +may be noticed. It will cloud up, let's say, on a Sunday, rain on Monday +and Tuesday, clear on Wednesday, staying clear until Sunday when it will +cloud up for the repeat. During this past season it rained on a dozen +washdays in succession. The newspapers grew jocular about it. And very +often one notices two or three rainy Sundays in a row. By actual +observation this year we enjoyed fifteen clear Thursdays in succession in +a normal spring. + +The weather gets into a rut. And if the anticyclones and cyclones were all +of the same intensity it is conceivable that the rainy Sundays might go on +until the Day of Rest was changed by Statute. But the intensities of the +whirls differ. Before long an anticyclone feebler than ordinary is +overtaken by a cyclone and annihilated. Or one stronger than the average +may dominate the situation for several days. Or the great body of cold air +in winter over the interior of Canada may send a succession of moderate +antis across our country making a barrier of dry cold air through which +the lurking cyclone can not push. + +Mostly, however, three days of anticyclonic influence and three days of +cyclonic influence with one day in between for rest, the transition +period, make up a normal week of it. Let the American farmer thank his +stars (and clouds) for that. For no other regions of the earth are so +consistently watered and sunned all the year round as the great expanse of +the North American Continent. + +The cyclone is that activity of the atmosphere which prevents us from +suffering from an eternal drought. The cyclone is an accumulation of air +which has become warmer than the air about it. This area of air usually +has a central portion that is warmest of all. Since warmth expands, this +air grows lighter and rises. Nature, steadfast in her grudge against a +vacuum, causes the surrounding air to rush it. Since these contending +currents cannot all occupy the central area at once they fall into a vast +ascending spiral that spins faster and faster as it approaches the center. +Imagine an inverted whirlpool. It is a replica on a much smaller scale of +the great polar influx, except that the latter has a descending motion. + +The cyclone thus is tails to the anticyclone's heads, the reverse of the +coin. Where the anti's air was cool and dry the cyclone's is warm and +moist. The anti had a downward tendency and a motion, in our hemisphere, +flowing outward from the apex in generous curves in the direction of clock +hands. The cyclone has an upward tendency, flowing inward to the core +contrariwise to clock hands. + +From these two great actions and reactions come all the varieties of our +weather. To understand the procession of the cyclones and anticyclones +across our plateaus, our mountains, our plains, and our eastern highland +is to know why, and often when, it will be clear or not. To mentally +visualize the splendid sweep of the elements on their transcontinental run +is to glimpse grandeur in the order of things which will go far to offset +the petty annoyances of fog or sleet. Ignorance may be bliss, but +knowledge is preparedness. + +The anticyclone suggests a pyramid of cold, dry air. The cyclone suggests +a shallow circular tank in leisurely whirl. But all comparisons are +misleading and a caution is needed right here. For a storm is not a +watering cart driven across our united skies by Jupiter Tonans Pluvius. It +is NOT a receptacle from which rain drips until the supply is exhausted. A +cyclone is a much more delicate operation than that. It is a process. It +can renew itself and become a driving rain storm after it had all the +appearance of being a sucked orange for a thousand miles. + +Suppose that our cyclone, this organization of warm, moist air with its +curving winds, enters the state of Washington on a Wednesday, from the +North Pacific. As early as the Monday afternoon before the wind throughout +all that section of the country would have shifted out of the west and +have started to blow in some easterly direction,--northeast in British +Columbia and southeast in lower Idaho. But since these winds are blowing +from the interior they are dry, and consequently rain does not fall much +before the storm center is near, that is on the Wednesday. If the storm +center passes north of Tacoma the winds, shifting by south and southwest, +bring in the ocean moisture and heavy rain commences which continues until +the rising barometer and westerly winds indicate the approach of another +anticyclone. So much for western Washington. + +As the cyclone passes eastward it mounts the Cascades and its temperature +is lowered, its moisture is squeezed out, and it stalks over Montana, the +mere ghost of its former self, as far as energy and rainfall are +concerned. To be sure it preserves its essential characteristics of +relative warmth, and inwhirling winds. But let it continue. As its +influence begins to be felt over Wisconsin and the Lake region the moister +air is sucked into the whirl and rain, evaporated from Superior, falls on +Minnesota. The east winds are the humid ones now, the west ones the dry. +Eastward the center moves, over Indiana, Ohio, New York, the rainfall +steadily increasing as the ocean reservoirs are tapped. + +The first time you tell a New Englander that his easterly storms come from +the west you are in danger, unless he be a child, for it is to the +children that one may safely appeal. Indeed it is the increasing number of +children who are learning these fundamental weather facts in the public +schools that the Weather Bureau relies upon for a more intelligent support +in the next generation. They teach their parents. These latter find it +difficult to believe, however, that the storms which hurl the fishing +fleets upon the coast in a blinding northeaster have not originated far +out at sea, but have come across the continent. For the safe handling of +boats knowledge of the rotary motion of storms is necessary that one may +be able to tell by the direction of the winds and the way they are +shifting where lies the center of the storm and its greatest intensity. + +In Tacoma when the wind shifted by way of southeast, south, and southwest +that was proof that the storm center was passing north of the city. +Likewise if in New York the winds shift by way of northeast, north, and +northwest the storm center is passing south of that city. As it drifts out +to sea it is gradually dissipated by the changing influences on the North +Atlantic. Very few of our storms ever reach Europe, although some have +been traced to Siberia. + +The Government has put its sleuths on the track of every storm that has +crossed the United States in the last thirty years. These weather +detectives with a thousand eyes have made diagrams of their actions, +mapped their courses, computed their speeds, and if we don't know where +all our discarded storms go to, we at least know where most of them came +from and how they acted when with us. + +About a hundred and ten areas of low-pressure affect the country during +the normal year. Of these all but seven, speaking in averages, come from +the West so that the Boston mechanic who will not believe that the +nor'easter comes via the Mississippi Valley is right about 7/110 of the +time. But even that small fraction is no exception to the general law, +because those seven storms are not born in Newfoundland but in our East +Gulf States. They come up the Coast, and the wind blows from the northeast +and north into their centers while they are still on the Carolina coast. +The great hurricanes which are cradled in the tropics and march westward +under the influence of the trades are genuine exceptions to the general +westward rule, although they always eventually turn toward the east. They +will be given the prominence they demand later, since the eastbound +schedule must not be sidetracked now. + + +[Illustration: CIRRO-CUMULUS TO ALTO-STRATUS + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_ + +The wispy edges of the cloud at the brightest part are cirrus, the fleecy +cloud at the extreme top is a thin alto-cumulus, and the dark base of the +sky is stratus. But this stratus is too high for that classification and +so they call it alto-stratus. This sky shows that the temperatures are +moderate, a cold sky being much better packed, and a warm one fluffier. +The fact that a veil of cirrus has not preceded the heavier clouds argues +that the coming storm will not be of much consequence. This sort of cloud +bank arising after a period of cold weather is the best possible +prediction of a thaw. Slight rain might follow within a few hours.] + + +Three cyclones a year form over the lower Ohio River basin. On account of +their origin over land instead of over water they rarely acquire much +energy. Once in a decade such depressions deepen rapidly. It was one of +these Ohio River storms that increased greatly in energy while moving from +West Virginia to the Jersey Coast that gave Philadelphia her Christmas +Blizzard, a surprise to her citizens and to the Weather Bureau, for most +of the snow fell with the mercury above freezing. The flare-back which +gave Taft his big inaugural snowstorm is another example of the way a +depression may deepen on approaching the coast. Until the upper atmosphere +is as well understood and watched as the lower, or until instruments are +perfected whereby the weather conditions can be made self-announcing such +surprises are absolutely unavoidable. Under conditions that warrant any +suspicion of sudden developments the Bureau at Washington is careful to +order extra observations in the areas likely to be affected, but no +surface observations can quite suffice. + +Fifteen storms a year originate over the west Gulf States, or, drifting in +from the Pacific over Arizona and New Mexico begin to acquire energy in +Texas. Twelve are set up over the Colorado mountains. These usually dip +down into Texas before starting their drive toward the northeast. After +both these sets of storms get under way they strike resolutely for the +same locality,--the St. Lawrence Valley. The conformation of the St. +Lawrence region provides an irresistible attraction for American storms. +Occasionally a very strong anticyclone holds that territory and pushes the +cyclone off the coast at Hatteras or even makes them drift across the +country to Florida. But such occasions are exceptional. Give the ordinary +cyclone its head, and, ten to one, you will find it on the way to the St. +Lawrence. The inhabitants will confirm this statement, I am sure. They do +not feel discriminated against in the matter of weather. They get nearly +everything that is going. Since they have to accommodate from seventy to +eighty cyclones in fifty-two weeks they have very little time to brood +over any one variety of weather. With the optimism of that section of the +country they say, "If you don't like our weather, wait a minute." + +Ten storms a year originate over the Rocky Mountain Plateau, north of +Colorado. About twenty cross over from the Canadian Provinces of Alberta +and British Columbia. And all our other storms, about forty each year, +enter our country from the North Pacific by way of Washington and Oregon. +Many of these drift across the northern tier of states without any great +display of energy, at least before they reach the Lake region. But the +majority loop down somewhat into the middle west as far south as Kansas, +and then make their turn toward the inevitable St. Lawrence. They usually +require four days to make the trip from coast to coast by this route, as +also by the more direct northern route, because on that they travel more +at leisure. But the storms from Texas, whose energy is greatest because of +greater heat and moisture, occasionally speed from Oklahoma to New York in +thirty-six hours. + +In summer all speeds are reduced. This is because the disparities in +temperature are less. In winter where greater extremes of temperature are +brought into conjunction the processes of the storm are all more violent. +And it is a bit disheartening to know that a storm is aggravated to even +greater endeavors by its own exertions. Its energy provides the conditions +to stimulate greater energy, and, like a fire, it increases as it goes. If +it did not run out of the zone which nourished it and proceed into another +zone where conditions were distinctly discouraging the limits of the +storm would be much extended, and vast territories would be devastated by +the self-propelling combination of wind and water. + +To the generality of us the word storm means rain. To the scientist it +means wind. In reality the cyclone is rare that crosses our country +without causing rain somewhere along its track. The curiosity of the +Weather Bureau to find out the paths of the storm centers is abundantly +justified because it is along these paths that the heaviest rainfall and +the severest winds occur. But whether or not there is precipitation on the +path of the cyclone it is rated as a storm if there is a lowering of +pressure and consequent wind-shift. + +The storm centers are not always well-defined, and quite often the +circulation of the wind about them is not complete. Such cyclones never +amount to much, although there is always the possibility of their closing +in and developing a complete circulation with the attendant increase of +energy. The incomplete cyclones over the desert and plateau regions are +lame affairs, lacking interest and advancing timidly if at all. But once +let them drift into a locality where they can be supplied with moist air, +they pick up energy, keep a definite course, and advance with increasing +speed. + +Very often the center will split up, the circulation perfecting itself +around both centers of depression. One of these will likely be over +Minnesota and the other over Texas and the organization will steam-roller +the states to the east in the manner of a gigantic dumb-bell. This +formation is more likely to have been caused by the two centers appearing +simultaneously than by a split in an original center. The weather reports +call this fashion of storm a trough of low pressure. The southern center +is the one that develops the more energy on its turn to the northeast. If +the two centers should unite on reaching the northeast a very heavy +precipitation is the invariable result. + +All cyclones have much greater length than breadth. They frequently +stretch from unknown latitudes in Canada into unrecorded distances into +the Gulf, while on the other hand it is a very large storm that rains +simultaneously upon the Mississippi and the Atlantic. Behind a cyclone of +pronounced energy a second whirl, called a secondary depression, often +develops, in which case the period of wet weather is prolonged. Also, more +rarely, an offshoot forms ahead of the main depression. + +A sluggish, sulky cyclone either in winter or summer provides more +opportunity to humanity for self-discipline than almost any other feature +of our national environment. In winter when the depression slows up it +settles down upon one community in the guise of fog, and stays by the +locality until an anticyclone blows in and noses it out. Fog is +aggravation, but a hot wave is suffering and the hot wave is caused by a +depression weak in character but generous in dimensions getting held up on +the northern half of our country. By its nature it attracts the air from +all sides, and being in the north, the direction of the wind over most of +the country would be southerly. Air from the west and north has a downward +tendency, but south and east winds are surface currents. Consequently +these winds, blowing over leagues of heated soil, become dry and parching. +If the depression lingers long the entire country to the east, south, and +west soon suffers from superheated air. At last the very intensity of the +heat defeats itself and the reaction to cooler is effected dramatically +through a thunderstorm. + +The well-developed cyclone in winter causes what we all know as a three +days' rain, although continuous precipitation rarely lasts over ten +hours. The rest of the time is occupied by general cloudiness with +occasional sprinkles and a final downpour as the wind shifts to the west +and the anticyclone nears. In summer the depressions, being shallower, +rarely cause continuous cloudiness for three days, although their +influence often lasts as long as that in the guise of a series of +thunderstorms. The line of storms extends several hundred miles, +bombarding all the towns from Albany to Richmond. These thunderstorms +sometimes achieve in an hour or two even greater results than their winter +relatives can accomplish in three days in the matter of rainfall, wind +velocity, and general destructiveness. Our wettest months are July and +August and not December and January. + +The freedom of the wind has been the subject of much poetic and prosaic +license. As a matter of fact the wind is the veriest slave of all the +elements. It is harried about from cyclone to anticyclone, wound up in +tornadoes, directed hither and thither by changing temperatures. It blows, +not where it listeth, but where it has to. And circuitously at that. For +once the path of duty is not straight. That is another fact that the +Boston mechanic would have been slow to accept,--that the wind blows in +curves. A little consideration, however, of the fact that the wind is +perpetually unwinding in great curves from the anticyclone and winding up +on the cyclone will show that nowhere can it be blowing in a perfectly +straight line. + +Thus it becomes the surest indication that a cyclone is to the west of one +if the wind blows from an easterly point. The storm is bound to move +toward the east, therefore the rapidity with which the clouds move and +thicken will signify when the area of precipitation will reach the +observer. The cycle of the storm is normally this: After a cloudless and +windless night a light air springs up from a little north of east. At the +same time strands of thin wavy clouds appear, very high up. They may be +seen to be moving from the southwest or northwest. Their velocity is +great. Their name is cirrus, and they are called mares' tails by the +sailors. They are followed by several hours of clear skies, usually; but +if the storm is smaller and close at hand there is no clear interval. + +Before the larger storms these cirrus clouds are sent up as storm signals +twenty-four and even forty-eight hours in advance. The day that intervenes +is very clear, the air feels softer, the temperature is higher. In +midafternoon more cirrus appears, and as condensation follows the quick +cooling the silky lines increase in number. Beneath them a thicker +formation, known as cirro-stratus, forms a dense bank in the west and +southwest. The sun sets in a gray obscurity. If there is a moon it fades +by degrees behind the veil of alto-stratus, and the halo which first was +seen wide enough to enclose several stars narrows until it chokes the moon +in its ever-thickening cocoon of vapor. + +There is no value whatever in the old superstition that the number of +stars within the halo foretells the number of days that it will rain or +snow. The same halo that encloses three stars at eight o'clock may have +narrowed down to one by midnight, or none at all, so that the prophetic +circle is bound in the very nature of its increase to contradict itself. +The presence of a halo is a pretty sure sign of some precipitation within +twenty-four or thirty hours. It fails about thirteen times in a hundred. +If the halo is observed around the sun it is an even surer sign, failing +only seven times the hundred. + +During the time of cloud-increase the wind will probably lull before a +snow, so that the hour or so before precipitation begins is one of intense +brooding calm. Or if there is no calm the wind, now easterly, will be very +gentle. Soon after the precipitation begins the wind will begin to +freshen and will continue to increase in velocity until the center of the +storm is close to the locality. This will require about eight hours for +the average storm. As storms vary an average is a very misleading thing +and the best way to judge of the length and severity of the storm is by +watching the wind. If it increases gradually the storm will be of long +duration. If the wind rises fitfully and swiftly it will not likely be +long but may be severe. If the wind reaches any considerable velocity +before the rain or snow begins the storm is sure to be short and severe. + +The color and formation of the clouds will tell when the precipitation is +about to begin. In summer, no matter how striking and black are the shapes +and shadows of the clouds, rain will not fall until a gray patch, a +uniform veil called nimbus is seen. In the little showers of April this +patch of unicolored cloud is there, as well as behind the great arch of +the onrushing thunderstorm. In winter raindrops are smaller and the +tendency of the clouds is to appear a dull, uniform gray at all times. But +the careful observer can detect a difference between the nature of the +clouds several hours before precipitation and their color immediately +before. + +When snow is about to fall no seams are visible. An impenetrable film +obscures all the joints. From such a sky as this snow is sure to fall. But +if seams are visible, if parts of the skyscape are darker than others, +then, no matter whether the temperature on the ground is below freezing a +rain storm will ensue. Very often these winter rains begin in snow or +sleet, but the clouds register the moment when the change from snow to +rain is to be made. The presence of swift-flying low clouds from the east +is a certain sign that the change to a temperature above freezing has been +effected in the upper strata of the atmosphere. This variety of cloud is +called scud, and accompanies rain and wind rather than foretelling it long +in advance. + +If the storm is approaching from the southwest the precipitation begins +near the coast about twelve hours after the cirrus clouds commence to +thicken and about twenty-four after they were first seen. In some +localities as much as thirty-six and even forty-eight hours are sometimes +required for the east wind to bring the humidity to the dew-point. Just a +little observation will enable one to gauge the ordinary length of time +required to bring things to the rain-pitch in one's own country. Of course +no two storms in succession make the trip under the same auspices and +with the same speed. The sign of the Universe should be a pendulum. +One period of cyclone, anticyclone, cyclone will traverse the country +rapidly. Then there will be a halt all along the line, and the next +series,--anticyclone, cyclone, anticyclone, will take three days longer to +make the crossing. Otherwise our weather would have a deadening +regularity. + +On an average our storms cross the country at the rate of about six +hundred miles a day. This is the average. Some delay, linger, and wait for +days over one locality. Others do a thousand miles in the twenty-four +hours. They thicken up enough to cause rain from two hundred to six +hundred miles in advance of their centers. It stops raining not long after +the actual center has passed. + +But for picnic purposes the storm is far from being over. For even though +continuous raining has stopped the low pressure still induces a degenerate +sort of precipitation called showers, or oftener mist for another twelve +hours (usually in winter). Then as the cooling influence of the +anticyclone approaches the rain recommences. This time it is not for long, +however, and is followed by permanent clearing, the wind shifting into the +west. Sometimes the change to blue sky is abrupt. But if the subsequent +anticyclone is not very well defined, cloudy conditions may linger for a +couple of days. Such clouds are usually much broken and show white at the +edges and never cause more than a chilly feeling. + +This attempt to outline the customary cycle of the storm,--clear sky, +cirrus cloud, wind-shift to the east, the denser cirro-stratus, the +pavement-like stratus, the woolly nimbus, the first continuous hours of +rain, the misty interval, the windshift to the west, the final shower, and +breaking cloud, the all-blue sky--this storm-schedule is always subject to +change. But the fundamentals are there in disguise every time. They only +have to be looked for and there is some satisfaction in penetrating the +disguise. + +When a storm comes up the Atlantic Coast, as happens a few times a winter, +the process is shortened, because the effects of the larger easterly +quadrants are felt only at sea. The most prominent recent illustration of +this type of storm was the severe snowstorm that swept the coast states +from Carolina to Maine the Saturday before Easter, 1915. Its calendar read +as follows: Friday, 8 P. M., cirrus clouds thickening into cirro-stratus. +Midnight, stars faintly visible, wind from northeast, 12 miles an hour. +Sunrise, stratus clouds, wind rising in gusts at Philadelphia to 30 +miles; 8 A. M., rapid consolidation of clouds with snow shortly after, +although the temperature at the surface of the earth was as high as seven +degrees above the freezing point. This rapidly dropped to freezing. Flakes +were irregular in size. Until one o'clock in the afternoon the snow +thickened with gusts of wind up to forty miles. Snowfall for five hours +was 14 inches, an unprecedented fall for this locality. + +Then the storm waned for five hours more, 5 inches more of snow falling. +Precipitation practically ceased at 6 P. M. By sunrise on Sunday the skies +were free of clouds and the wind blew gently from the northwest. + +Occasionally a high pressure area out at sea and beyond the ken of the +Weather Bureau causes one of these coast storms to curve inward to the +surprise of everybody. Occasionally, too, the transcontinental storms are +driven north or south of their accustomed paths. While the divergence may +be slight, it causes a margin of variance from the accuracy of the +Bureau's report. Then arises a second storm,--one of indignation--from all +the people on one side of the strip who carried umbrellas to no purpose, +and from the others,--who didn't. + +This pushing aside of the cyclone is caused by pressure variation that +only hourly reports from many localities could detect. Vast hidden +influences shift the weights ever so little and the meteorological express +is wrecked. But this happens, at most, fifteen times in a hundred, and +remembering the unseen agencies to be coped with people are refraining +more and more from the tart criticisms of former times, not in charity but +in justice, although there is small tendency yet to forward eulogies to +the Bureau in recognition of the eighty-five times it is right. + + + + +CHAPTER IV + +SKY SIGNS FOR CAMPERS + + +The weather-wise, even more so than poets, are born. But that only goes to +say that weather-wisdom can be fathered. For poetry and canoeing and the +art of making fires, once the desire for these things is born, may be +aided infinitely by observation and practice. Nobody can teach a man the +smell of the wind. But the chap who feels nature beating under his heart +can, by taking thought, add anything to his stature. So it is with those +who are called weather-wise. An unconscious desire, a little conscious +knowledge, a good deal of experimentation with the cycle of days, and you +have a weatherman. + +These chapters aim to put the little conscious knowledge into the hands of +the people with the unconscious desire, so that when they take their week +in the woods for the first time (and their month for the second time) they +may enjoy the shifting scenery of the sky-ocean and, incidentally, a dry +skin. For I take it that everybody will soon be camping. Maine and the +Adirondacks have become a family barracks. It is Hudson Bay for bachelors. +And over this expanse of woods and children the weather problem ranks with +the domestic one. For naturally if a soaking would endanger his vacation +the husband must not permit a rain,--unexpectedly. In all seriousness, it +is of avail to know the skies if one is going into the wilds just as it is +of avail to know what severed arteries demand, what woods burn well, and +what mushrooms can be eaten, even though one can get along without knowing +these things until perchance the artery is severed or the arched squall +catches one far from shore. + +At the very least, one grain of weather wisdom prevents a mush of +discomfort. And if, fellow-camper, the following observations gathered on +a thousand thoughtless walks do not tally (for the northeastern states) +with yours, write me, so that in the end we may finally contrive together +a completer handbook of our weather. + + +THE CLOUDS + +Clouds are signposts on the highway of the winds. Every phase of the +weather, except stark clearness, is commented upon by a cloud of some +sort. When danger is close they thicken. When it passes they disappear. +The aviators of the future will be cloud-wary. He who flies must read or +never fly again. + +The cirrus cloud is always the first to appear in the series that leads up +to the storm. It looks like the tail of Pegasus and for it the old +forecasters in their forecastles made a special proverb. + + "Mackerel scales and mares' tails + Make lofty ships carry low sails." + +These white plumes and scrolls which are in reality glistening ice-breath, +fly at the height of five, six, seven, and even eight miles. And as a sign +of coming storm they are about as infallible as anything may be in this +erratic world. They were born in the cradle of a storm. The storm center +was breathing warmed air upward to great heights, and although the disc of +the storm itself was only two or three miles deep, its nucleus, +crater-like, shot warm columns twice as far. With just enough moisture +content to make a showing against the blue these streamers flowed to the +eastward. At those dizzy heights the prevailing westerlies are in full +force, blowing from eighty to two hundred miles an hour night after night +and day after day. These westerlies caught the storm exhalations, the +streamers, and hurled them eastward at greater speed than the main body of +the storm. And that is the reason that we see these cirrus clouds always +eight, mostly twelve, often twenty-four and sometimes forty-eight hours +before the storm is due. + +Just a few strands of cirrus have little significance. They may be +condensation from a local disturbance, or a back fling from a past storm. +But if the procession of the cirri has some continuity and broadens to the +western horizon it is a sign about eight times in ten that a cyclone is +approaching. Occasionally the storm center is too far to the south or +north to cause rains at your locality, but the cirri bank up on the +horizon and their lacework covers the sky. If they appear to be moving +toward the region of greatest cloudiness it is not a sign of +precipitation. This condition is most apparent at Philadelphia when the +storm center over Alabama or Mississippi floats out to sea by way of +Florida without having the energy to turn north. Then the cirrus is seen +thickly on our southern horizon. Looking closely one sees that the cirri +are moving from the northwest, and are being drawn into the storm area +instead of proceeding in advance of it. + +Careful watching will sometimes enable one to tell whether the tails are +increasing or decreasing in size. If they dissolve it means that the +cyclone from which they were projected is losing strength because of new +conditions. Cloudiness may follow but no precipitation of consequence. The +plumy tails are expressive: pointing upward they mean that the upward +currents are strong and rain will follow; pointing downward they mean that +the cold dry upper currents have the greater weight and clear weather is +likely. In summer the cirrus cloud formations are not such certain advance +agents of rain because all depressions are weaker and less able to +confront a well-intrenched drought. As the proverb goes, "all signs of +rain fail in dry weather," and there is some truth in it. + +The fine wavy cirrus clouds often increase in number, develop in texture +until the blue sky has become veiled with a muslin-like layer of mist. +This is the cirro-stratus, and is a development of the cirrus, but it does +not fly so high. Its significance is of greater humidity and is the first +real confirmation of the earlier promise of the cirri. Another form that +the cirro stratus may assume is the mackerel sky,--clouds with the light +and shade of the scales of a fish. If this formation is well-defined and +following cirrus it is a fairly accurate storm indicator. It is not quite +infallible, however, as the same forms may be assumed when the process is +from wet to dry. + +The old proverb, "Mackerel sky, soon wet or soon dry," expresses this +uncertainty. If dry is to follow the scales will appreciably lessen in +size and perhaps disappear. If the cirro-stratus or scaly clouds are +followed by a conspicuous lowering it is only a question of a few hours +until precipitation begins. The cirro-stratus at a lower level is called +alto-stratus and this becomes heavy enough to obscure the sun. + +The cloud process from stratus on is slow or rapid, depending upon the +energy of the coming storm and the rate of its approach. In most cases the +clouds darken, solidify, and become a uniform gray, no shadows thrown, no +joints. Soon after the leaden hues are thus seamless the first snowflake +falls. If it doesn't it is a sign that the process of condensation is +halting: the storm will not be severe. Sometimes there is no precipitation +after all this preparation, but under these circumstances the wind has not +ventured much east of north. From the time that the snow starts the clouds +have chance to tell little. Only by a process of relative lightening or +darkening can the progress of the storm be followed and the wind, and not +the clouds at all, is the factor to be watched; for occasionally the sun +may shine through the tenuous snowclouds without presaging any genuine +clearing so long as the wind is in the east. + +But in summer the clouds become even more eloquent than the wind. The +rain-cloud, called the nimbus, becomes different from the dull winter +spectacle. In summer air becomes heated much more quickly and the warm +currents pour up into the cold altitudes where they condense into the +marvelous Mont Blancs (or ice-cream cones) of a summer afternoon. These +piled masses of vapor are cumulus clouds, and if they don't overdo the +matter are a sign of fair weather. They should appear as little cottony +puffs about ten or eleven in the morning, increase slowly in size, rear +their dazzling heads and then start to melt about four in the afternoon. + +But perhaps the upward rush of warm, moist air has been so great in the +morning that the afternoon cooling cannot dispose of it all without +spilling. Then occurs a little shower,--the April sort. Often in our +mountainous districts it showers every day for this reason. The great +thunderstorms come for greater reasons: they are yoked to a low pressure +area and represent the summer's brother to the winter's three-day storm. + +Cumulus clouds are called fair weather clouds until their bellies swell +and blacken and they begin to form a combination in restraint of sunlight. +Even then it will not rain so much out of the blackness as out of the +grayness behind it, and if there is no grayness chances are that you will +escape a wetting. One can almost always measure the amount of rain that is +imminent by the density of the curtain being let down from the rear of the +cloud. If you can see the other clouds through it or the landscape the +shower will be slight. If a gray curtain obscures everything behind it you +had better pull your canoe out of the water and hide under it if time is +less valuable than a dry skin. Such showers may be successive but rarely +continuous. + +Rain clouds have been observed within 230 yards of the ground. Very often +it can be seen to rain from lofty clouds and the fringe of moisture +apparently fail to reach the earth, because the condensation was licked up +and totally absorbed on entering a stratum of warmer air. The reverse of +this occurs on rare occasions;--condensation takes place so rapidly that a +cloud does not have time to form, and rain comes from an apparently clear +sky. This phenomenon has been witnessed oftenest in dry regions and never +for very long or in great amounts, although a half hour of this sort of +disembodied storm is on record. + +If the cumulus clouds of the summer's afternoon do not decrease in size as +evening approaches showers may be looked for during the night. And if the +morning sky is full of these puffy little clouds the day's evaporation on +adding to them will probably cause rain. A trained eye will distinguish +between a stale and fresh appearance in cloud formation, the light, newly +made, fresh clouds, like fresh bread, contain more moisture. If the clouds +have much white about them they need not be feared as rain-bearers. Clouds +are much higher in summer than in winter and the raindrops of warm air are +larger than those of cool. + +If cumulus clouds heap up to leeward, that is, to the north, or northwest +on a south or southwest wind a heavy storm is sure to follow. This is +notably so as regards the series of showers in connection with the passage +of a low-pressure area. The wind will bear heavy showers from the south +(in summer) for a whole morning and half the afternoon with intervals of +brilliant sky and burning sun. Or perhaps the south wind will not produce +showers, but all the time along the northwest horizon a bank of cloud +grows blacker and approaches the zenith, flying in the face of the wind or +tacking like a squadron against it. About the time that the lightning +becomes noticeable and the thunder is heard the wind drops suddenly, veers +into the west, and the face of things darkens with the onrush of the +tempest. + +Although no rain may have fallen while the wind was in the southern +quarter yet that constituted the first half of the storm and the onslaught +of rain and thunder the second. While the storm area moved from the west +to the east the circulation of air about the center was vividly +demonstrated by the south wind blowing into the depression, whose center +was epitomized by the moment of calm before the charge of the plumed +thunderheads from the northwest. + +Most camping is done either in hilly or mountainous country where the +movement of clouds is swifter and more changeable than over flat lands. +There is one sign of great reliability: if the mountains put on their +nightcaps the weather is changing for the wetter, and if clouds rise on +the slopes of the hills or up ravines, or increase their height noticeably +over the mountain-tops, the weather is changing for the dryer. In the +mountains where abrupt cliffs toss the winds with all their moisture to +heights that cool clouds form and condense rapidly and the weather changes +quickly. But even in the mountains the big changes give plenty of warning. + +Often clouds may be noticed moving in two or even three directions on +different levels at once. The upper stratum will probably be cirrus from +the west. Cumulus or stratus may be floating up from the south. A light +drift of vapor called scud may fly on the surface easterly wind. Such a +confused condition of wind circulation betokens an unsettled system of air +pressures and as frequent collisions of the air bodies at varying +temperatures are inevitable rains, probably heavy, will follow. + +On clear days one will be surprised to see isolated clouds, usually the +torn, thin sort, drifting across the sky from the east. A change will +follow soon. + +In winter black, hard clouds betoken a bleak wind. + +Clear winter days several times a season show a brilliant blue sky filling +with great cumulus clouds of dark blue, blurred at the top and gray at the +base. They will sprinkle snow in smart, short flurries, and are ushering +in a period of clear and much colder weather. + +A sky full of white clouds and much light is a cheerful sign of continuing +fair weather. + +The softer the sky the milder the weather and the more gentle the wind. It +is the dark gloomy blues that bring the wind. But do not mistake the +woolly softness of the rolling clouds before a thunderstorm. A sudden and +often violent gust follows. Tumbling clouds in any event should make one +wary of venturing on water. Summer drownings would not be so numerous if +the portent of the squall were heeded. + +To this data might be added many singular cloud formations that are not +observed often. The funnel shaped cloud of the tornado, the green shades +of the hurricane cloud, the green sky of cold weather showing out between +layers of steel blue, coppery tints that show before heavy storms +sometimes, variations of color at sunset each of which has a meaning which +practice in deciphering will make clear. But enough has been given to show +sky-searchers how many are the tips of coming weather that may be read +from a conglomeration of fog particles. Nobody with eyes should be caught +unawares by day. The look of the sunset shadows forth much of the coming +night. And throughout all this truth holds: the greater the coming storm +the longer and clearer are the warnings given to the watchful. + + +THE WINDS + +The wind is the ring-master of the clouds. It whistles and they obey. +Therefore to be windwise is to be weatherwise, almost. + +One can get a hold on the wind by learning to gauge its strength. Look at +the trees or the smoke from your city chimneys and guess how fast it blows +at eight o'clock in the morning, or eight at night. The weather report the +next day will tell you how nearly you were right. + +Beginning is easy; anybody can guess a calm. When the leaves are just +moving lazily the Weather Bureau calls it a light or gentle breeze, moving +from 2 to 5 miles an hour. A fresh breeze, from 6 to 15 miles will stir +the twigs at first and finally swing the branches about. From 16 to 25 +miles, a brisk wind, will cause white caps on the lakes, tossing the tops +of the trees, but breaking only small twigs. Increasing from 26 to 40 +miles it becomes a high wind that breaks branches on trees, wrecks signs +in the towns, causes high waves at sea and roars like the ocean in heavy +squalls through the woods. From 40 to 60 miles an hour makes a gale. +Sailing craft are now in danger. The pressure at 50 miles an hour is 13 +pounds to the square foot, having risen from three-quarters of an ounce at +3 miles. This pressure becomes 40 pounds per foot when the wind reaches a +velocity of 90 miles. + +At 60 trees are uprooted, chimneys may go, it is difficult to walk +against, the noise becomes very great but rather inspires than frightens. +As the gale increases from 60 to 80 (which velocity the Bureau rather +weakly calls a storm wind), danger rapidly increases. Trees are +prostrated, the uproar becomes terrifying, walking without aid is +impossible, the great ocean liners are in danger, the sea becomes a +whitened surface of driving spume that heaps up into piles of water thirty +or more feet high, windows are blown in and frame houses cannot stand much +greater velocities. Anything from 80 miles an hour up is well called a +hurricane. Everything goes at 100. At Galveston the machine that +registered the wind velocity blew away at 100. + +They have better instruments now, and in many places velocities of over a +hundred miles an hour have been recorded. As high as 186 miles was +registered on the top of Mt. Washington, and in a single gust 110 at +Montreal. The great hurricane winds are most felt at a few of the exposed +places on our coasts. Cape Mendocino, on the Pacific, has 144 miles an +hour to its credit in a January hurricane. But enough destruction is done +at 90 miles. Fields are stripped of their crops, or leveled; houses are +demolished unless they are specially built, like the New York +sky-scrapers, to withstand much higher velocities. In the small whirling +storms called tornadoes the wind is estimated to reach a velocity of 200 +to 500 miles, and nothing but the cyclone cellar will shelter one from the +fury of the elements when they are really unleashed. + +The higher one goes the greater the velocity of the wind. On the top of +Mt. Washington 100 miles is rather common for hours at a time and 150 is +recorded now and then. That is only 6000 feet above Boston. If such a +force struck Boston for a minute it would be blown _en masse_ into the +Bay. + +Velocities on land are less than those at sea, because of the resulting +friction from obstacles. Velocities in summer are lower (thunder gusts +excepted) than in winter. Since the wind is caused by differences in +atmospheric pressure, and that in turn by disparities in temperature, +winter holds the palm for greater velocities because the wide whirl of a +cyclone over the great plains may cause to mix air from Texas with a +temperature of 60 degrees with air from Montana of 30 degrees below zero, +while the summer temperatures in both states might easily be 80 degrees. + +Throughout most of our land certain winds have always the same bearing +upon the weather and this correspondence is roughly the same over most of +the country. West winds, for instance, are an almost universal guarantee +of clear weather. The Pacific Coast and western Florida are the +exceptions. + +Northwest winds bring clear skies and cool weather everywhere. In winter +in the north plateau section heavy snows arrive in advance of the severe +cold waves that come on these northwest gales. + +North winds are the cold bearing ones. Clear skies prevail under their +influence. + +Northeast winds are cold, raw snow-bearing winds in winter and spring and +bring chilly rains in midsummer. + +East winds are the surest rainbringers of all for the eastern two-thirds +of the country, and are soon followed by rain with a shift of wind over +the other third. Their temperatures are more moderate than those of the +northeast storms. + +The greatest falls of rain occur, however, with the southeast winds, whose +moisture content is greater than that of the others because they are +warmer and blow off water except in Rocky Mountain districts. + +South winds are warm and contain much moisture, which falls in showers +rather than in continuous rains. + +The southwest winds of winter precede a thaw and are much damper than west +winds. In summer over much of our country they are hot, parching winds +that injure vegetation. + +The average velocity of the wind from these different quarters is variable +in different parts of the country, the severest being on the southeast and +northwest quadrants. The highest winds are always where the steepest +gradients are; that is, where the barometric pressure decreases or +increases the fastest. The steepest gradients are usually on the northeast +and northwest sides of the storm center, with the exception of the +Atlantic Coast where the southeast winds are often highest. The average +for the northeast quadrant is 16 miles, for S. E. 30, for S. W. 20, and +for the N. W. 30 miles an hour. But averages can deceive. As a matter +of fact single instances of great wind velocities occur from each point of +the compass. The greatest velocity ever recorded at Philadelphia occurred +in October, 1878, when the wind blew seventy-five miles an hour from the +southeast. But the record velocities for eight of the other months were +registered in the northwest quadrant. + + +[Illustration: ALTO-STRATUS + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_ + +Not so high as cirro-stratus, and yet partaking of the same skeiny +texture. This would be a normal sky in winter about six hours after the +veil of cirrus had begun to throw its haze about the sun. No other cloud +formations appear, however, and so the area of precipitation is still +pretty far away. In summer such a sky is less common. If the disturbance +is to amount to anything the cirro-cumulus will soon form. If the wind is +from a westerly quarter the blanket of cloud is doubtless a drift from +some distant storm, which will not affect this locality. The wind is +always blowing toward a storm and away from clear weather.] + + +The period of time when the barometer is beginning to rise after having +been very low is that when the strongest winds blow. + +Some sections of our country have special kinds of wind that are +peculiarly their own, notably Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana where the +chinook reigns. This phenomenon belongs only to the cold season and only +to the coldest days of it. It is a warm wind that begins to blow without +much warning from the southern quarter. It is caused by a body of cold air +suddenly falling from a great height. As it falls its descent heats it and +it causes a rise in the temperature of the surrounding locality that +greatly exceeds any rise from other causes. The increase in temperature +will be as much as forty degrees in fifteen minutes. + +This sudden dry heat is a great snow-eater. If it were not for the chinook +the snow-blanket would stay so much longer on the cattle ranges that they +would be useless as such. In northeastern sections of our country and +Canada the warm winds blowing in from the ocean at the approach of a +cyclone do away with the snow rapidly but with nothing like the speed of +the chinook. + +Another phenomenon of the air that is of tremendous benefit to man is the +sea-breeze. During the intense heat of a hot wave the wind may shift to +the east in Boston and in fifteen minutes coats are comfortable. Such a +shift may bring relief to a strip of land two hundred miles wide along our +entire eastern seaboard. The sea-breeze is explained by the fact that the +land cools more quickly than the sea and also warms more easily. During +the whole forenoon of a summer's day the sun has been pouring upon land +and sea, but the land-air has become much hotter than the air over the +sea. It rises and the sea-air rushes landward. By midnight the land has +cooled off even more than the sea and the heavier air now presses out to +sea again. On every normal day this balancing process takes place. + +If it doesn't conditions are abnormal and chances are that mischief is +brewing. This ebb and flow of warmer and cooler air is, on a small scale, +exactly what is happening on a vastly larger field of operations between +cyclone and anticyclone. And it is the dominance of the anticyclone with +its prolonged rush of air from the northwest that interrupts the sea +breeze for two or three days in winter, as the cyclone prevents the night +land breeze from taking place when it is central off the eastern coast. + +The exchange of air between mountain side and valley is similar to the +land-and-sea breeze. The rarer air on the mountain side heats faster by +day and cools faster by night than the denser air in the valley. Therefore +during the day it rises and the valley air rushes up to take its place; +during the night it cools and sinks into the valley. This is a great help +when one is shut up in a secluded valley for several days and cannot get a +good view of the skies. The atmosphere is acting properly and will remain +settled so long as the air blows up your ravine for most of the day, and +turns about sundown and blows out and down the ravine like a flood of +refreshing water. + +Of course many valleys are so large as to be affected, not by these local +causes, but by the larger movements of the anticyclones when the +sure-clear west wind may blow up the valley for three days at a time. But, +nevertheless, for most mountainous places the logic holds and you may +expect rain if the wind does not blow coolly down the ravine at night. Of +course watch your clouds for confirmation. + +In times of calm prepare for storm. An eminent meteorologist has frowned +upon me for saying that. It is not the whole truth, I admit, but there is +a certain kind of calm which happens often enough to justify the remark. +It happens this way. A severe storm has passed. The customary anticyclone +with its brisk northwest winds has arrived and is blowing with all the +vigor necessary to induce one to believe that the clear weather is to +continue for the usual length of time; that is, three or four days. But +suddenly in the early afternoon, just when it should be blowing its +hardest, the wind drops, lulls, shows a tendency to change its direction. +There is only one explanation. Another cyclone has developed off in the +west. It has knocked the anticyclone on the flank, taken the teeth out of +the gale. + +The wind shows this before clouds can. The absence of wind when there +ought to be a lot shows it before even the first cirrus swims overhead. +The chance is that when the flow of anticyclonic air has been thus rudely +cut off and stillness follows, it will be storming by morning. It is best +to keep an eye on these abnormal, precipitous calms. In times of peace +prepare for rain. + +But the eminent meteorologist was eminently right when he said that the +statement was misleading unless explained. For there are many kinds of +calms that do not portend coming storms. Nearly every day, winter and +summer, but particularly in summer, the wind drops to a calm at sunset. +That is a time of adjustment. After sunset when the accounts are all in +the wind springs up with as much force as it had in the afternoon and +continues until dawn. At sunrise, however, there is another truce. If this +truce is neglected either at sunrise or at sunset it is a sign that either +a cyclone on an anticyclone is very much in the ascendency. These truces +are most often observed at the seashore when you are out sailing and the +smell of supper fills your nostrils but is not sufficient to fill your +sails. These calms are normal and the best sign of a fair day on the +morrow, provided the other signs agree. + +During the great transition period from summer to winter comes that +autumnal truce, Indian Summer, which is the chief claim to fame of +American weather. For day after day a brooding haze sleeps in the air, +sometimes for weeks there is no wind of any strength. Winter advances +insidiously in the fall but retreats in commotion, and the cooling off +process permits of these still days while they are uncommon in the spring. +The wind checks off more mileage in March than in any other month. + +While the regular day's end calm and the calm of the year's exhaustion +mean continued fair weather, there is one calm that everybody knows, which +is the most dramatic moment in the whole repertory of the weather: the +foreboding, ten-count wait before the knockout blow of the thunderstorm. +But when that calm comes every one is already sitting tight so that it is +not much account as a warning. They say that the intense stillness before +the hurricane strikes is uncanny. + +Whether inshore or afloat the wind is to be watched if you would know what +weather is to be. It is only another of Nature's paradoxes that the most +unstable element should be the most reliable guide of all on the uncertain +trail of the next day's weather. + + +TEMPERATURES + +Considering that the temperature of the sun is 14,072 degrees Fahrenheit +and the temperature of space is absolute zero, 459 degrees below ours, we +do very well on earth to be as comfortable as we are. + +And we owe it all to the atmosphere which keeps the sun from concentrating +upon us. Our place in the sun is so very small that we intercept only +one-half of one billionth of the heat which it is giving off night and +day. But that is sufficient to do a lot of damage if it could get at us. + +But even the paltry range of temperatures so far recorded on our +planet,--from 134 degrees above zero one day in California, to 90 degrees +below zero one night in Siberia,--is by no means a fair statement of the +extremes we are called upon to bear. Only twice a decade in our country +does the mercury vary as much as sixty degrees in twenty-four hours, and +there are vast areas where the daily change amounts to only a few degrees. + +The changes that do come so suddenly to us, particularly in winter and +that are known as cold waves, are in reality beneficial. To them we +Americans may owe our energy, our vivacity, our changeability of mood. The +refrigerated, revivified air sweeping down from the north is tonic. It is +heavy, and issuing from antiseptic altitudes, drives the humid, +germ-nursing air from our city streets. If we had arranged a process of +refreshment like this at vast expense we should have been intensely proud +of it. As it is we are intensely annoyed at it and occasionally a few +people are frozen to death. The Weather Bureau warnings and the coal clubs +are reducing the loss in property and lives. + +If you are sleeping out it is of great importance to know when the mercury +is going to take one of these swoops, for sleeping cold means little real +rest because one's muscles are tense, and the next day's packing needs all +the relaxation one can get. Two generalizations govern pretty much every +change of temperature: the mercury will rise before a storm and it will +fall after one, winter and summer, but much more conspicuously in winter. + +There are two reasons for this. Our cyclones usually cross our country +over such a northern track that over most of the country the air drawn +into them comes from the southern quarters and is therefore warmer than +the air previously flowing from the anticyclone. Also the process of +precipitation causes heat. This is true to such an extent on the coast of +Ireland where it rains most of the time that a scientist has computed that +the inhabitants get from one-third to one-half as much heat from the +rainfall as they do directly from the sun. Thus a normal storm is doubly +sure to warm up the environment. + +In summer the reverse is partially true, for very often the rain does not +begin until the actual center of depression has passed and the west winds +have begun to exercise their cooling influence. So that in summer we have +a sultry, sunny day as the first half of the storm area and then a cooling +shower. Also after two or three days of warm weather in spring and autumn +we have a rainstorm of the winter type which lowers the temperature +instead of raising it. This is because the heat produced by the storm is +less than that of the sun's rays intercepted by the clouds. The clear +skies of the preceding anticyclone had permitted the land to warm up very +fast under the midsummer sun, and the clouds of the cyclone, by cutting +off the supply, had made a relative chill. + +In winter the sunrays are so much feebler because of their slant and +radiation proceeds so rapidly under the dry air of the anticyclone that a +much greater degree of cold is produced than when the cyclonic clouds +prevent the radiation. Therefore the rainy area is the warmest of all. +Even in summer the winds from the southeast, south, and southwest are +warmer than those from the opposite quarters, not only because they blow +from a quarter naturally warmer on account of the sun, but because they +are surface winds and have absorbed some of the heat from the soil. Being +denser, they absorb it more readily and hold it longer. + +The change, then, from the period of fair weather to that of storm brings +an increase of temperature. But the rate of increase varies. The faster +the storm is approaching the faster the temperature will rise; and the +route of the storm's center makes all the difference as to the amount of +the rise. If the wind shifts by way of the north and holds in the +northeast until precipitation begins the rise in temperature will be very +slight. The great snowstorms of the northern half of the country occur +under just such a circumstance. If the wind shifts by way of the north but +gets around to the east or even southeast before the precipitation starts +the rise in temperature will be more pronounced, as much as thirty degrees +sometimes in a few hours, and the winter storm that started in as snow +soon changes to sleet and rain. + +If the wind shifts by way of the south and then into the southeast the +rise will be vigorous and the storm will likely be a comparatively warm +rain. If the wind shifts only so far as the south the rise will be highest +of all and blue sky will often appear between the showers, showing that +the air is heated to a considerable height. + +The progress of the temperature changes from the maximum of the cyclonic +area to the minimum of the anticyclone is also dependent upon the wind. If +the storm center is passing south and the wind begins to pull into the +northeast and north the temperature will fall steadily and slowly. The +rain or snow often cease gradually by the time the wind has reached the +north, but the temperature continues to fall slowly until it reaches very +low levels in mid-winter. If the storm center is passing north of you the +wind which has brought most of the rain while it was in the southeast with +comparatively high temperatures swings into the southwest, the temperature +falls somewhat. + +There is usually a final downpour and a rapid shift of the wind into the +west or northwest, but almost never directly into the north. The +temperature falls several degrees in a few minutes, quite unlike the +gradual decline of the northeast-by-north shift, and clear skies come at +once with rapidly diminishing temperatures. In the vicinity of +Philadelphia a fall of twenty-five degrees would be most unusual on the +northeast shift,--such storms reaching 38 degrees and falling to 15, +while with the other shift a fall from 55 degrees to 15 would not be +unusual. Of course any one set of figures given could only show the +tendency and not the rule or limits. + +After the manner of the wind-shift the intensity of the storm is a good +gauge of the temperature change to be expected by the camper. As a rule +the greater the intensity of the storm the greater will be the degree of +cold that follows it. The storms that have a complete wind circulation +about them are always more severe than those with incomplete circulation +and are invariably followed up by some reduction in temperature. If the +decrease is not proportionately great and the subsequent wind has only a +moderate clearing quality look out for another cyclone. + +In such a case the temperature is the best witness of the contemplated +change. For instance, after a summer thunderstorm a decided coolness is +_de rigeur_. If this does not occur it means nearly every time that there +is another thunderstorm in process of construction. There may be not a +cloud in the sky, there may be no wind (although there should be) so that +the course of the thermometer is the only means of telling what is to be +the next event. Anybody can take a thermometer with him although a +barometer--the most accurate forecaster of all--may be thought too much +expense and bother. + +At some future date the Weather Bureau will be able to predict the +temperature of seasons in advance. This, together with the amount of rain +scheduled to fall, will be an invaluable aid to everybody and to the +farmers most of all. At present mild seasons that have severe storms +without the appropriate degree of cold after them cannot be entirely +explained, let alone being prediscovered. They all hinge upon the more or +less permanent areas of high and low air pressure over the oceans and +international meteorological service has not progressed far enough to +support many ocean stations as yet. + +Sometimes clear weather may intensify, growing brighter, stiller, colder. +This is because the pressure is increasing. Cold seasons are distinguished +usually by a succession of anticyclones. There is no way of telling how +long a certain spell of cold weather is to last, but I have noticed that +the same characteristics rarely predominate for longer than a month at a +time. In other words, if December has been warm and rainy, January will +likely be cold and dry. Of course, that is precisely the unscientific sort +of generalization which the Bureau very rightly frowns upon, but which +one may nurse privately until science has provided a substitute as she +already has in so many instances. + +With a little practice it is an easy matter to estimate the temperature to +within a very few degrees. Try guessing for a few mornings and then look +at the thermometer. You will hit within three degrees every time after a +week of this. + +Allowance must be made for the amount of moisture in the air and for the +force of the wind. Damp air feels colder by several degrees than crisp, +dry air, and a breeze increases the difference still more. Air in motion +is not necessarily colder than calm air. As a matter of fact the lowest +temperatures of all are recorded about sunrise after a still, clear night. +The amount of radiation accomplished during the last hours of the night is +amazing, and the downward impetus of the thermometer is often carried on +for an hour or more after the sun has appeared above the horizon. A +self-recording thermometer is an amusing toy which will show this and +becomes a valuable instrument if one raises fruit. + +In winter three o'clock of an afternoon sees the highest temperature +usually, and in summer this maximum occurs as late as half-past five, due +to the fact that the sun can pour in its heat faster than the earth can +radiate it off. For the half hour before and after sunset, particularly in +winter, the loss of heat is relatively greatest; then the pace slackens +till three or four in the morning, when the plunge of the mercury is +accelerated until the rays of the rising sun counteract the radiation. + +If the mercury does not rise appreciably on a clear winter's day it is a +sign that a cold wave is stealing in, due, doubtless, to a gradual +increase in pressure without its customary bluster. Very often snow +flurries predict its approach, but this may be so gradual that only the +restriction of the daily thermal rise may indicate it. By the next morning +the temperature will likely be twenty degrees colder. + +If the mercury does not fall on a clear winter's night it is a sign that a +layer of moist air not far above the surface of the earth is checking the +normal night radiation. Unsettled weather is almost sure to follow unless +this wet blanket is itself dissipated and the mercury takes its customary +tumble before morning. + +If the temperature falls while the sky is still covered with clouds +clearing, possibly after a little precipitation, will soon follow. + +Hot waves approach insidiously. A night will not cool off as it properly +should, the sun will rise coppery, and while the day is yet young +everybody begins to realize that all is not exactly right. But the heat +increases usually for several days, not only by reason of steadily +lowering pressure, but also by accumulation. Finally when a climax is +reached it departs abruptly on the toe of a thunderstorm. + +A cold wave reverses the process. It arrives abruptly on the heels of a +departing cyclone and, after losing power, steals away without any +commotion whatever. Its rate of progress is in close relation to the +cyclone ahead of it. + +Our mountains play a great part in our weather. They are a right arm of +Providence to our agricultural communities. Due to their north and south +trend a cold wave of any severity reaches the Pacific Coast only once a +generation. Just once has snow been observed to fall at San Diego and it +is so rare south of San Francisco that many people never have seen a +flake. East of the mountains the belt of desert makes natural crops +impossible for a thousand miles, but if they crossed the continent all the +territory north of them would have such a cold climate that none of the +present enormous crops of Canada and our northern states could possibly be +grown. It is also due to the wide insweep of winds from the Gulf that +the plains states are so well watered. + + +[Illustration: CUMULUS + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_ + +The tops of cumulus are irregular, looking like wool-packs; the bases are +flat. The true cumulus shows a sharp outline all the way round. Its shape +is in constant change due to the strong winds it is encountering. It is +caused by the swift uprush of warm air on a sunny day. This cloud is a +sign of fair weather, because the base is not large, compact, or dark +enough to threaten rain and its comrades are also disjointed. If the +cumulus grow darker toward the horizon and increase toward evening a +squall is likely.] + + +In lesser fashion the Appalachians protect the Atlantic seaboard. They +withstand the impact of the cold waves to a great extent, although they +are not high enough to divert the flow of cold air entirely toward the +south and it is not desirable that they should. As things are the cold +strikes Alabama before it hits New Jersey, and is often more severe there. + +Comparative cold is often registered by the green color of the sky. A +fiery red continues the prevailing heat. + +The day that is ushered in by a fog, in summer, will likely be warm, +providing the fog lifts by ten o'clock. + +The temperature of a night with even a thin covering of clouds will be a +good deal higher than if the sky is clear. In the British Isles the whole +difference between freezing and no freezing lies with the fairness of the +heavens. Everywhere frost will not form while the sky is covered, although +the temperature may be below the freezing point. In summer radiation on a +still clear night may be so rapid that frost may follow a temperature of +fifty degrees at nightfall. + +The temperature at the surface of the earth may easily deceive, as a +colder or warmer stratum of air may overlie that immediately next to the +ground. I have seen water particles fall when the temperature was as low +as 16 degrees above zero, showing that the stratum of cold air was very +thin. Our sleet storms in which immense damage is done to trees and +telegraph wires occurs from just such a situation,--a cold, shallow layer +of air close to the earth, with the warm moisture-bearing air flowing over +it. The reverse of this situation is not uncommon--the sight of a +snowstorm proceeding merrily along with the ground temperature at 35 or +even 40 degrees. + +Coming warmth may be noticed by the increase in size of snow flakes, with +finally hail and rain. Coming cold is foreshadowed by hail mixed with the +rain and lastly snow flakes which have a tendency to decrease in size. +Colors of the clouds predict temperature changes, but it takes much +practice to distinguish the cold, hard grays from the soft, warm ones. A +warm sky is always less uniform in color than a cold one. The colors of +winter sunsets are, as a rule, much brighter than those of summer skies. + +The stars seem brighter on a night that is to be cold. If they twinkle it +is because of rushing air currents, and if the wind is from the northwest +the result may be a subsequent lowering of temperatures. + +The whole question of whether it will be colder and how much is vital to +the camper and if the signs of change are taken along with the look of the +clouds and the direction of the wind he need never be wrong as to the +direction the mercury is going, and will soon be able to guess the +distance pretty fairly. + + +RAIN AND SNOW + +East of the Mississippi River rain falls with the utmost impartiality upon +every locality. Thirty to fifty inches are delivered at intervals of three +or four days throughout the year. And if there is a slight irregularity in +delivery one can be sure that from 125 to 150 of the 365 days will be +rainy. Occasionally there is a more or less serious hold up of supplies, +but this rarely happens in the spring of the year and never happens to all +sections at once. And if there is a desire to make amends for the drought, +we have what we call a flood and blame it on the weather instead of on our +precipitous denudation of the watersheds. + +West of the Mississippi particular people have to go to particular places +for their rain. If they like a lot of it they must go to the coast +districts of Washington or Oregon where they can have it almost every day. +It rains a good deal at Eastport, Maine,--about 45 inches a year; that is, +nearly an inch a week,--but at Neal Bay, Washington, at about the same +latitude, in one year it rained 140 inches, and it never stops short of +100 inches any year. + +On the other hand, if the Washington people are tired of it they need only +escape to Arizona where it rains about two inches a year, and they can +live in an enterprising hotel down there whose manager believes that it +pays to advertise the sun. He guarantees to provide free board on every +day that the sun doesn't shine. + +In the plateau section enough snow falls every year to store up enough +water for irrigation purposes, and the little rain that falls arrives in +just the right season to do the most good, the spring. In California what +the farmers lose in amount they make up in the regularity of its arrival. + +North of the Ohio River most of the precipitation from November to April +is snow. About 50 inches of it falls on the average over this tremendous +territory. And it is more useful than rain,--the handy blanket that makes +lumber-hauling easy, that keeps the ground from freezing to Arctic +depths, that fertilizes the soil, and that acts as a great reservoir, +holding over the meat and drink of the vegetable kingdom till the thirsty +time arrives. In upper Michigan and Maine the average depth becomes 100 +inches. Averages are very misleading when snowfall is being considered, +some winters producing very scanty amounts and others heaping it on to the +depth of 185 inches once at North Volney, New York. + +South of the Ohio the depth varies from substantial amounts in some +winters to almost nothing in others. Snow has been observed, however, in +every part of our country except the extreme southern tip of Florida. Once +and only once on the records a great three-day snowstorm visited all of +southern California, extending to the Mexican border and to the coast. + +The strip of country between the parallels of New York City and Richmond +comprises the section wherein each winter storm is one large guess as to +whether the precipitation is to be snow or rain. A compromise is usually +affected in this way. Before the clouding up began the mercury may have +stood at ten degrees below zero. As soon as the wind acquired an easterly +slant the temperature increased. As it neared the freezing point the snow +would begin, first in flakes of medium size which would enlarge until +after a particularly heavy fall of a few minutes they would at once almost +cease. Hail soon would succeed, the mercury still rising, and often the +hail would have turned to rain before the freezing point of the air of the +immediate surface of the earth had been reached, turning the snow already +on the ground to slush and making a holiday for germs. + +One can always tell when this change to warmer is about to occur because +the clouds which have been part and parcel with the obscuring snow +suddenly show, not lighter but darker. The sudden increase in size of the +flakes is another infallible symptom of increasing warmth in the +atmosphere for each large flake is a compound of many smaller ones. When +the temperature is low the flakes are very small, being grains and +spicules in the severe blizzards of the west and falling as snow-dust in +the Arctic. In the heavy storms of the guessing-belt the flakes are not +necessarily small. + +I have noticed (in the latitude of Philadelphia) that our largest storms +begin very leisurely indeed with small and regular-sized flakes. A quarter +of an inch may not fall in the first hour. As the center nears the snow +comes ever faster and larger, but not large, flakes are mixed with the +original-sized flakes. Snow dust is apparent. At the height of the storm +flakes of all sizes except the very large are falling, denoting great +activity in the strata of air within the storm influence. In the ordinary +storm an accumulation at the rate of an inch an hour denotes a storm of +considerable intensity. + +The snow will likely keep on falling as long as the flakes are irregular +in size. If they grow large and few or very small a cessation is likely, +even though the wind is still blowing from an easterly quarter. The amount +of snow likely to fall can be gauged not only by the process of +flake-change but by the rate at which the wind rises. A storm's intensity +is measured by the amount of wind. A storm can be a storm without a drop +of rain or flake of snow if only there be enough wind. And as long as the +wind in a snowstorm keeps rising the storm is likely to go on, probably +increasing in volume of precipitation. + +If the wind shows a tendency to edge around to the southeast there is +danger of the snow turning to rain; if the wind veers slowly to the +northeast the temperature will fall slowly and the rate of precipitation +will likely increase for a while. In such instances the snow does not +continue to fall after the wind has swung west of north. Often clearing +takes place with the wind still in the north or even a point east of +north. + +Contrary to superstition snow may begin to fall at any hour of the day or +night. But certain hours seem more propitious than others, owing no doubt +to the tendency of cooling air to condense. Three o'clock of an afternoon +and eight o'clock in the morning are favorite times, the one being the +hour of a winter afternoon when cooling is begun, the other the hour when +the coldest time is reached and condensation likely if at all. Of course, +one remembers storms beginning at nine, ten, eleven, and every other hour. + +Storms that begin in the morning seldom reach much activity before three +o'clock in the afternoon, while those that begin then quickly increase in +intensity as evening draws near and the sun's warmth is withdrawn from the +upper air-strata. More snow falls at night than in the daytime, also. Snow +is more delicate than rain and perhaps more responsive than rain to the +subtle changes of the atmosphere. Possibly there is no ground on the +Bureau records for these ideas, possibly storms have a tendency to start +from the Gulf on their northeastward journey and so reach Philadelphia +oftener at one time than another. I would like my notions confirmed that +snowstorms increase at nightfall, and that they prefer to start operations +at sunrise and about sunset. + +For the camper the snowstorm need have no terrors. It gives a long warning +of its approach. It comes mostly without destructive winds. Its upholstery +protects and warms the walls of one's tent. It adds beauty to the leafless +woods, interest to the trailer, and a hundred amusements among the hills. + +But the value of snowy weather is not only measured by its beauties and +commercial uses. There is another way: make it read character for you. +Watch the reactions toward the first snowfall of half a dozen kinds of +people. It will show you what they are; give you a very fair measure of +their youth. + +Our atmosphere contains a lot of moisture that never gets precipitated. +You can prove this on any warm day by noticing the way the atmosphere acts +toward a glass of ice-water. When the air of the room is much warmer than +the surface of the glass it surrenders its moisture willy nilly. Sometimes +this condensation is enough to cause a miniature rainstorm that trickles +down the outside of the tumbler. If a small cold surface can wring so much +water out of a little air it is small wonder that we get an inch or so of +rain from vast currents of air at unequal temperatures. + +Try to visualize the process. A stream of vapor has been warmed and is +ascending. A mile up and it has cooled not only by the reason of altitude +but also by the process itself. About each little dust-particle in the +surrounding area vapor forms--vapor cannot form without something to form +on, there being always enough dust from deserts and volcanoes to go round. +If the cooling proceeds the tiny globules enlarge and as they increase in +weight they settle and fall. Falling, they unite with others. + +If the air-strata are very warm and thick the drops may grow to a very +considerable size. We see these in the middle of our great winter rains +when the insweep of southern winds with all their warmth and moisture is +very extensive. Also the first few drops that come from the thick, hot +lips of the thundercloud are usually immense. + +The best way to measure the size of a raindrop is to have it fall in a box +of dry sand. It rolls up the sand and measurements can be easily and +accurately made. But the most interesting way is to let the first drops of +the thunderstorm fall upon a sheet of blotting paper. If the same sort of +blotting paper is used the measurements will be of just as much importance +for comparison. Circles as big as teacups are formed sometimes. + +Heavy drops in winter mean a heavy fall, because they denote high +temperatures which are uncommon and are bound to be followed by +considerable condensation as the cooling proceeds back to normal +temperatures. Small drops in summer mean either cooler weather, or sudden +condensation. Small drops in winter are a sign of very thin +moisture-bearing strata, or low temperatures, indicating that the rain +will be light, protracted, and liable to change to snow. + +Hail is frozen rain. Winter hail is small and harmless and rarely falls to +any depth because the exact temperatures that bring forth the hail rarely +continue for very long at a time. Hail in winter is merely the stepping +stone to either rain or snow. But in summer hail is a serious matter. It +shows that there is a violent disturbance of the atmosphere in progress. +Vertical air currents, probably abetted by electricity,--the authorities +are not sure--often carry the stones up several times. They take on layer +after layer, coalesce, and sometimes fall the size of eggs, apples, or any +other fruit, barring melons. The usual summer hail does not exceed the +size of a robin's egg. Even a projectile of that size, however, falling +for a half mile or more has a tremendous destructive power. Greenhouses +suffer, birds are killed, cattle stunned, and loss of life has been known +to follow. In August in 1851 in New Hampshire hailstones fell to the +weight of 18 ounces, diameter 4 inches, circumference 12 inches. In +Pittsburgh stones weighing a full pound have crashed down, and in Europe +where many destructive storms have occurred there are official records of +even greater phenomena. The lightning accompanying these hailstones is +usually very severe. A flake or ball of snow forms the nucleus of a +hailstone. + +If a thundercloud looks particularly black or if it can be seen in +commotion think of hail and seek shelter. It is pretty difficult to +predict exactly when hail is going to fall in summer. It is a possibility +with every large storm, but a probability with only a very few during the +summer. It accompanies tornadoes. + +In winter hail falls before a rainstorm, even when the ground temperature +precludes the possibility of snow; some lingering stratum of cold air has +ensnared the drops on their way down. + +Snow is not frozen rain. It has an origin of its own. It is born in a +temperature consistently below freezing and on the condensation of the +invisible moisture becomes visible as a tiny crystal. These infinitesimal +crystals unite and form larger, hexagonal shapes, elongated or starry. +They are wafted along, sinking, all slightly differing one from another, +although forming a few types. These types have been photographed and +catalogued and very often the altitude from which the snow is coming may +be learned from their shape and design. But this branch of science is +young yet and confusing and the outdoor man has surer signs of the +vicissitudes of the storm, in the general size of the flakes, the power +and direction of the wind, the clouds and temperature. The possibilities +of flake-study as a means of forecasting are many and of value as is +anything that tends to unveil the secrets of the greater heights. + +Snowflakes are so light that after the storm processes are over and the +sun has come out the residue may still float lazily to the ground. + +The wild disorder of the snow flurry will only last a few minutes and +never leave much snow on the ground. + +Snowstorms that come on the wings of the west wind may be severe, but they +will be short. They are unusual in the east, but sometimes the heaviest +snows of the western states come on the sudden cooling that follows the +shift to west. + +Snowstorms arriving on a high wind last only a few hours. + +Snowstorms that are long in gathering and increase to considerable +intensity continue a long while. + +Those that follow a sudden clouding up are of no importance. + +The snowstorms that leave on a high wind from the west or northwest are +followed by a cold wave. Those that continue after the storm wind has died +away are succeeded by calm, clear, and usually warmer weather. + +In northern districts a snowstorm may be looked for after a period of cold +weather. In middle districts if the cold has been severe the reaction to +warmer may bring rain instead. In such cases generalities are of no use, +and the possibilities must be determined by the man on the spot. The best +conditions for snow through the middle districts are occasioned by an area +of low-pressure with its attendant precipitation crossing the southern +half of the country while the northern half is under the influence of an +area of high-pressure with its attendant frigidity. The cold air flows +into the southern storm with the result that the middle districts get the +northern quadrants of the storm which are the usual snow-bearing ones +instead of the southern rain-bearing quadrants that they would have got if +the center of the storm had pursued its usual course up the Ohio and down +the St. Lawrence. + +If the storm has two centers, one over Texas and the other over Montana, +as is so frequently the case in winter, the subsequent high pressure will +come too late to affect the temperature of the zone of precipitation and +the latter will likely be rain in the middle districts. Sometimes the +cyclones cross the country on the Canadian border and enough warm air is +sucked over the line to give the inhabitants of Montreal a thaw and rain. +This happens to them only once or twice a winter. And even more rarely a +cyclone over the Gulf with an anticyclone above it will give the Gulf +States a taste of winter, but rarely more than a few flakes. + +It really all depends on the influx of air, its rate and direction. It +rains in Alaska and snows in Georgia on the same day merely because at one +place the air is coming off the Pacific, and at the other it is flowing +from the center of a refrigerated continent. + +And the progress of these storms is one of Nature's greatest poems if you +take a minute to think of them sweeping on in majesty, the one thing that +man cannot control. Even the snow which is the citizens' curse as well as +the farmers' blessing becomes epic when it beleaguers an empire for half a +year. + + +DEW AND FROST + +The very process that made the tumbler of ice-water sweat on the hot day +causes dew. And the formation of frost is analogous to that of snow. Frost +is not frozen dew, but the formation of moisture crystals at the +temperature of 32° or below. Frost or dew form only on still, cloudless +nights. Even if no clouds are visible, neither will form if a stratum of +humid air has prevented radiation. Hence either dew or frost is a fairly +good sign of clear weather. + +Three white frosts on successive mornings are followed by a rain. This +saying holds water not because there is any virtue in frost to cause rain, +but because a storm is normally due once a week. The frosts did not form +when the anticyclonic winds were blowing and usually not more than three +mornings elapse between the time that the anticyclone has lost its +influence and the time for the next cyclone to appear. Frost indicates a +considerable amount of moisture in the atmosphere, also, which tends to +increase as the cyclone approaches. + +The heaviest dews come in late summer and the heaviest frosts in +mid-autumn because the change in temperature is greatest then and there is +a greater chance that there will be a calm at sunrise. The greatest frost +damage occurs in the spring because the tenderer crops are growing then. +Summer frosts used to occur in the northern parts of Minnesota and along +the southern boundaries of the inland Canadian provinces before the +forests were cleared off. The march of civilization has actually pushed +back the frost line some distance. + +Frost may occur when the amount of humidity in the air is low and the +barometer rising at any temperature under 50 degrees at nightfall, the +clear skies permitting radiation enough under those circumstances to +produce the necessary cooling. An evening temperature of 40 degrees with +the clear skies and faint west breeze will almost surely produce a frost, +provided the wind drops. In such circumstances the only hope for the +farmer is that there is enough humidity in the air to cause a fog before +the frost-point is reached. A temperature touching 34 degrees would not +bring frost, however, if the sky was at all overcast. Frost is difficult +to predict because a night shift in the wind, cloudiness that forms after +midnight, or even a wind arising before the coolest period at dawn will +prevent its formation. On the other hand, clouds may disperse, the wind +may fall or radiation may be so rapid before sunrise as to cause a killing +frost unawares. The farmer who lives in areas disputed by winter and +spring may never be quite sure, but precautions should be taken on the +still, clear, dry nights with the thermometer at fifty or below. + +Fruit-growers resort to fires or to coverings to protect their crops. The +fires are particularly worth while, not so much for their heat which at +best cannot be expected to warm up the great outdoors much, but for the +smoke which prevents radiation. A line of smudges such as campers use to +ward off the mosquito would spread a pall of smoke over an orchard +efficaciously. A snowstorm, the soft fluffy sort that falls in April or +May, can do much less damage to vegetation than a severe frost. + +Temperatures are much lower on the ground than even six feet above the +grass. Naturally these temperatures are those that really influence most +vegetation and in England temperatures on the grass are given in the +weather report with the ordinary observations, being as much as six or +eight degrees lower on clear nights. + +In some of the hot, dry countries, such as Arabia and Egypt, most of the +moisture that they receive falls in the form of dew. Falls, of course, is +a loose expression as the dew forms and does not fall, being different +from the minute particles of fog. The fog particles in suspension in the +air are estimated to be as small as 1-180th of an inch. When they grow to +1-80th of an inch in diameter they commence to fall. Fogs are chiefly +caused by the soil being warmer than the air above it; the vapor on rising +condenses and becomes visible. In the spring and fall currents of air blow +over rivers at different temperatures and the result is a fog. One does +not have a fog in the desert. + +There are places in the ocean with cold and warm currents with the air +above them correspondingly different where fog is of almost constant +occurrence. The Gulf Stream off the Grand Banks of Newfoundland has a +temperature of 78 degrees, while the water on the Banks is 45 degrees so +that fogless days are rare along the line of meeting. + +Frost is known in every part of our country, many localities in the +plateau section being exposed to it every month of the year. The thin air +and cloudless skies of the altitudes make radiation very easy and the +daily variation of temperature is much wider than along the humid coasts. +Those who have never looked into frost conditions throughout our country +will be surprised to read the warnings of the Weather Bureau. + +From the station at Pensacola, Florida (frost-proof Florida!), comes this +statement: "Vegetables are subject to damage by frost during all seasons +of the year." + +Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, "Frost is likely to damage fruit or other crops +in May and September." + +Phoenix, Arizona, "Frost is likely to do damage in December, February, and +March." + +Baker City, Oregon, "Fruit and other crops are most liable to damage by +frost in April, May, June, September, and October." + +Kalispell, Montana, "Frost damage for fruit, May 15th to July 10th; for +grain, June 25th to August 1st." + +Montgomery, Alabama, "During March, April, and May fruit and early +vegetables are subject to damage by frost." + + +THE THUNDERSTORM EXPOSED + +Probably nothing in the world causes more terror than a flash of +lightning. In an able-bodied thunderstorm playing about a city there are +several dozen flashes, and every one of them brings trepidation, fright, +or positive terror to thousands of human beings,--oftenest women, +sometimes men, and occasionally children. Yet probably there is no alarm +in the world so ill-founded. + +Thunderstorms play pretty generally over our three million square miles +with their hundred million population. Yet lightning picks out of this +crowd only three hundred people a year who are foolish enough to be +killed. That is, only three persons in each million to be sacrificed to +the most astounding and beautiful display in the world, a mere handful +compared to the mounds of motor car victims or to the 33,068 deaths a year +attributable to railroads and the perils of track-walking. + +The trouble about the thunderstorm is that it does not lull one into the +sense of insecure repose. It is too obviously after one. If the thunder +were toned down a bit and the lightning a trifle duller the alliance might +claim its thousands, like the inconspicuous housefly, and never meet an +objection. But until the thunderstorm foregoes its bravado it will +continue to bully the ladies into hysterics. + +Of course, there is always the sporting chance that you are one of the +three in your particular million to perish. + +But you can lessen the chance. You must not seek refuge under a tree. You +should not take doubtful shelter in a barn. And you had best not sit in a +draft by an open window if there is a tree just outside it. By these three +avenues most of the thoughtless three hundred (a year) invite their end. + +Trees that are tall and otherwise exposed are struck oftenest. The +electricity in the cloud and the electricity in the earth are always +endeavoring to combine. When this tendency becomes so strong that the +resistance of the intervening air is counteracted the electric discharge +between thundercloud and earth takes place. This happens most frequently +from some pointed thing as a steeple, a tree if they are good conductors. +Men and animals are sometimes charged with the electricity opposite to +that of the cloud. When the lightning is discharged, even at a distance, +the bodies revert rapidly from the electric to the natural state. This +return shock or concussion occasionally proves fatal. + +That is the reason that trees are such poor protectors from the storm's +fury. Better a wet skin in the middle of a field than precarious dryness +under an oak or cherry or tall pine or almost any other tree. If it should +hail hard enough to stove in your head take to a beech or a small spruce. + +Barns are struck so often because the body of warm, dry air in them favors +the passage of electricity. Those who hide in barns are sometimes +cremated. After a severe thunderstorm in the Poconos I have seen as many +as three barns on fire at once. + +Open windows, porches, and exposure generally are safe, but not safest. +The cellar, that old stamping ground, is where instinct takes a few. Any +closed room on the side of a house away from trees is good enough. But the +risk of annihilation is so very small that one is repaid for taking it by +the spectacle. A great thunderstorm surpasses anything in nature in the +matter of architecture, coloring, directness, and surprise,--which, with +selection, comprise the essentials of art. Imagine the crowds that would +pay to wonder at the sight if a thunderstorm could be staged, say, at the +Hippodrome! + +Some hot morning, if you have time to watch, you may see a thunderstorm +born in the mountains. The warm, moist air flows up the mountainside and +the essential start is made. Cooling, this air first shows as a fluffy +cloud that soon grows harder in appearance and becomes tufted at the top. +Its little belly swells and grows blacker. It hovers over the valley. +Others add to it. Suddenly a sort of adolescent thunder is heard. The +tension has become too great. A definite consolidation is visible, a +fringe lowers, and a few drops of rain may reach you. + +The incipient storm moves off, and having started a whirl within itself, +increases, like a rumor, as it goes. Before it has moved beyond your +horizon it may have become a large patch of dark blue with billowy white +crests on the top, and underneath hangs a curtain of rain. Chances are +that it will not go far before encountering conditions that dispel it, but +it may cover half a dozen counties before nightfall. As a rule these +little heat thunderstorms do not amount to a great deal. They are +originated by local conditions and leave things pretty much as they found +them. + +But when a cyclone is passing in summer a series of thunderstorms or heavy +showers with some thunder frequently take place instead of the all day +winter rain. These thunderstorms mount up against the wind. Their clouds +are black. The word black is an indulgence of the human weatherman +meaning, of course, any dark color,--a black sky would terrify the most +hardened of meteorologists. + +The cyclone winds come from the south or southeast just as they do in +winter, but this quarter may not bring the heaviest rainfall in summer. +There may be showers or even clear skies, but the day will be humid and +hot. A haze of cirro-stratus cloud will gradually overspread the sky from +the west, darkening into a blue from the original whitish or gray. +Lightning does not appear from the cirrus, but after the sky has grown +pretty dark a ridge or tumbled cloud will be seen low on the western +horizon. Meanwhile the wind will have died down. + +The lightning, at first only a faint glimmer, will have become more +frequent and noticeable. If it is striking at a distance of fifteen miles +the thunder will not be heard. As soon as the storm center, where the +heaviest rain and the electrical display are taking place, gets within the +fifteen-mile radius thunder will be heard to growl, and the tumbled +cumulus clouds which may have lain along the horizon for hours will begin +to approach. The storm will be upon you in ten minutes likely after the +arc of foreboding blue and white cottony cloud has begun its charge across +the sky. Light quickly fades from the heavens. The wind drops entirely. +Streaks of lightning burn downward. + +Behind the arc stretches a curtain of uniform blue or gray. If the gray is +lighter in places the rainfall will not be heavy. If the curtain is a +uniform blue a heavy rain is sure. If the bow of clouds can be seen to +tumble or is continuous and approaches fast the wind is certain to be +severe,--may be from 30 to 60 miles an hour for the first few minutes. +Sometimes a cloud of dust advancing before it demonstrates its force. + +This moment immediately before the storm breaks is the dramatic moment of +the entire cyclone. As in a tragedy, the interest has built up to this +supreme occasion, this knife thrust, from which interest recedes until +clear skies show that the play is over. From 12 to 36 hours is the usual +time required in winter. In summer the cyclone takes even longer to pass a +given point, but the period of rainfall, in which the winter storm's +amount is often surpassed, may not last fifteen minutes. First the blow, +then a crash of thunder, and the rain in big drops, which lessen rapidly +in size as the whole world seems involved in the vast forces of the storm +center. Most of the precipitation occurs in the first fifteen minutes, +sometimes in the first five. A hearty storm will deliver an inch in short +order. Although the rain continues often for an hour and sometimes in the +storms that are attached to a well-defined cyclonic system there will be +two or three robust thunderstorms in succession, yet the first downpour is +usually the torrential one and the others die away until the conditions +that caused the outbreak have passed off. With the severer storms hail +falls. + +The general condition of the air after a thunderstorm is cooler, dryer, +and more invigorating than before. Ozone has been liberated, dust has been +washed from the air and vegetation. The surest sign of a continuation of +unsettled weather is the failure of the atmosphere to cool off. If the air +remains sultry and heavy and depressing another shower is due. In such +circumstances the wind will not have begun to blow with any great promise +from the west. + +A close, sultry morning is the best indication of a thunder-gust. The +large piles of cumulus clouds are called thunderheads for the very reason +that they almost always precede a thunderstorm. The heaviest electrical +disturbances have cirrus clouds a few hours in advance of them very much +as their winter relatives. A thunderstorm that does not cause the +barometer to fall considerably will not amount to a great deal. + +At night the different kinds of lightning furnish a running commentary to +the storm. On calm evenings the sky will be cloudless, with perhaps the +exception of a low rim on the northern horizon. Yet flashes of lightning, +of course without thunder, may be seen illuminating that entire quadrant +of the sky. This is called heat lightning and is popularly supposed to be +the result of the heat only. As a matter of fact it is caused by a normal +thunderstorm that is operating below the horizon. Reflections from this +storm are shown on the rim of clouds, or if no clouds are visible, on the +bowl of the sky. If you see lightning be sure that there is a storm +somewhere. + +If this disembodied sort of lightning continues to flash from the western +sky it is quite possible that the storm will reach you. If it shows on the +northwest or north of you the chances are that the storm will be carried +around. If the wind is from the southwest and the lightning appears there +only the progress of the clouds will show whether the storm is pursuing +the normal track from the west and around you or whether it is edging up +toward you. One cannot be very well surprised by a thunderstorm of any +energy in camp as the lightning shows as much as two hours before the +storm breaks and the thunder gives fifteen minutes' notice on most +occasions. + +The sort of lightning that spends itself illuminating the clouds in +serpents and willowy branches confines itself to the altitudes and is very +beautiful and harmless. It is accompanied by thunder that sounds hollow, +that rumbles over the sky, and usually does not end with the crash and +thud of the more vigorous variety. Such lightning and such thunder are +more often connected with the sort of storm that comes up very swiftly on +a western wind. It gives shorter warning than any other sort of +thunderstorm and is not connected with the cyclonic area. I have known +such a storm to manifest itself low in the west, approach, and break +within twenty minutes. Much wind results and not much rain, although the +temperature falls. Lightning with storms of this impromptu kind rarely +does any damage. + +But if the storm rises slowly against the wind, requiring an hour or two +or three to approach and break, the lightning will grow almost +continuously, some of the flashes being broad streamers cleaving the +western sky. It is this sort of lightning that does the damage. The +thunder, instead of rolling like an empty barrel, hits into a series of +concussions. If the lightning strikes an object nearby the crash is +rather appalling. There are several freak sorts of lightning such as the +ball form, which are rare. + +The approach of the center of disturbance may be gauged by the length of +time that elapses between flash and crash. In reality the thunder occurs +immediately after the discharge of electricity, but sound travels so +slowly, compared to light, that a minute may intervene between stroke and +clap. You may count the seconds, noticing the regular decrease, signifying +the nearing of the crisis. Soon a flash in front and a simultaneous peal +will show you that you are in the thick of things. The next bolt or two +may hit very close and you can appreciate what it means to be on the +firing line. Then the next river of fire with its detonation streams +behind you and you are saved. + +In a severe thunderstorm there are several centers, several nuclei that +shed destruction like great batteries and their progress over and beyond +you has its thrills. You may find the exact number of feet away that the +bolt hit by multiplying the number of seconds elapsing between the +lightning and thunder by 1120. But an easier way is to allow a mile for +every five seconds on the watch. One or two seconds, and you are pretty +near the center of the fray. + +Lightning compresses the air, leaving a partial vacuum. The other air +rushing in to fill this partial vacuum forms the wave motion that produces +the noise. That is the whole why of thunder. The reason thunder rolls is +that the lightning is a series of discharges each of which gives rise to a +particular detonation. If lightning were but one discharge, the thunder +would be but one stupefying crash. Reflections from the clouds and from +layers of air of different densities and from the ground are agencies that +prolong the sound. + +Our atmosphere is never lacking in electricity. This electricity is always +positive in clear weather and sometimes negative in cloudy. Science +concludes, then, that negative electricity invariably indicates rain, +hail, or snow within a radius of forty miles. + +Moist air is a good conductor. Our powerful motors can now produce a spark +of electricity several feet long. But some of the flashes that shoot +across the sky in a big storm extend over five miles. The duration of the +flash varies from 1-300th of a second to a second. The reason that +lightning does not always pass imperially along a straight line is that +some air, either moister or warmer than the air around it, offers less +resistance. The lightning takes this line of least resistance along the +pathway of warmer or less dense air. + +Altitudes of thunderclouds vary. They may hover above the earth at 800 +feet. They may be a mile high. They have been observed on peaks of +mountains three miles high. Many other electrical phenomena are observed +in the mountains. The study of these will undoubtedly benefit meteorology +and perhaps go far to explain the unsolved problems of the Service. + +One kind of thunderstorm that is rather rare is that which arrives in +winter with the passage of an energetic cyclone. Often when the wind, +having been in the southeast for most of the storm, is passing around and +reaches the south or southwest the rainfall culminates in a deluge and +thunder is heard. One or two such storms are a winter's complement. They +usually terminate the rainfall for that particular cyclone. I have never +heard of damage caused by these winter electrical storms, and they occur +only in exceptionally well-developed areas of low pressure. + +Lightning has many times been observed during heavy snow storms. I have +never heard any thunder with it. The discharge must have been very faint. + + +[Illustration: STRATUS + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_ + +Stratus is merely lifted fog in a horizontal form, the lowest of all, and +the simplest as regards structure. It means neither rain nor snow and the +apparent clearness of the blue above it would indicate clear weather to +come. But through the break in the stratus near the horizon shows a cloud +of firmer texture, which is less reassuring. Stratus over the land in +winter takes the appearance of long bolsters of gray through which a pale +blue sky shines. Such clouds may blanket the sky for days without causing +a drop of rain. If they show a tendency to glaze over expect snow or rain, +but not in large quantities.] + + +The fascination that a thunderstorm has for many people is explained +partially by the fact that one sees the whole process from beginning to +end. The officials of the Weather Bureau have this privilege as regards +cyclones. It is their business and pleasure to watch the setting up of +these vast storms, to follow them on their journey. It is small wonder +then that they find the spectacle fascinating. + + +THE TORNADO + +The birds, the flowers, and the tornadoes are all busiest in spring. And +the tornadoes probably make the largest impression. + +A tornado is merely a whirl of air, caused, as are all the other whirls, +by a striking difference in temperature in adjacent areas. A tornado is a +local and restricted example of the same thing that a cyclone is. But a +tornado rarely crosses more than a single state; a cyclone strides +continents. A tornado lasts, in one place, about a minute; a cyclone +affects the weather for three days. A tornado never survives the night; a +cyclone plods on for a week. And yet if you are betting on destruction put +your money on the tornado. What it lacks in the realms of space and time +it makes up in intensity. Its sting is fatal. + +Tornadoes occur chiefly in the spring because the temperature changes are +greatest then and it is from these that the tornado sucks its nourishment. +Over the plains, for example, a limited area is abnormally heated by a +local cause. Abnormal cold comes in contact with the abnormal heat. The +great difference in pressure results in a spiral as it did in the cyclone, +only in a very small spiral, and once begun its energy is +self-aggravating. The whole thing moves off toward the northeast attended +by the black cloud of its condensation. From the black cloud a funnel like +an elephant's trunk sways back and forth, now touching the ground and now +escaping it. The black cloud has been in the southwest for some time +probably before it has commenced to move. The day has been very +oppressive. The sun rose rather coppery, in all likelihood. As the black +cloud with the swaying funnel nears a roaring is heard. Darkness falls. +The roar increases.... Instantly it is over. + +Now that you've been through a tornado you know how it feels,--almost. +After the funnel passes hail falls, lightning flashes through the +lessening murk. Heavy rain succeeds, and if you're alive you go out and +rescue the perishing. + +The wind velocity in the path of a tornado is enormous,--anything up to +500 miles an hour,--but no instruments have been devised to withstand the +strain. Varying pressures are responsible for the destruction. As the +funnel passes over a house where the normal air pressure is about 2,000 +pounds to the square foot it removes 1,500 pounds for an instant. +Naturally the outside walls cannot withstand this enormous inside out +pressure and the house explodes like a projectile. Only under such +conditions could the vagaries of matter,--straws piercing logs and +chickens bereft of every feather--be perhaps not explained but pardoned. + +Stories of any degree of incredibility crop up after each tornado, often +with accompanying photographs as proof. People are plastered with mud, +pianos are deposited in neighboring lots, babies are hung up unhurt by +their clothes in tree-tops, and often one person is killed and another +nearby escapes unhurt, Bible-fashion. + +Tornadoes may form almost anywhere, but they are never found on the +immediate Pacific coast. They are most common in the Mississippi Valley, +are rather common in the Gulf States, and have occurred throughout most of +the East at one time or another. + +Since there is no way of stopping them the next best thing is to know the +conditions that make for their formation. If the Weather Bureau predicts +a cold wave for sections of the country where the weather is already +abnormally warm the line of meeting will probably produce a tornado +somewhere. The officials, however, advise you not to worry until you see +the intensely black cloud in the southwest trailing its funnel. See where +this funnel is tending and run the other way. All tornadoes progress from +the southwest to the northeast. Bad as they are, this makes them far less +terrifying than if they whipped back and forth over a town or chased you +around the pasture. If you happen to be in the house, take to the cellar, +the southwest corner of it. If you can't escape lie face down to the +ground. + +The only tornado that I have ever witnessed was an undeveloped one in +England, and a bit lethargic compared to those of the Prairie States. But +even this blew an entire train off the track. It had all the other +appurtenances of a tornado, the hail, the twisted trees, the narrow +southwest to northeast path. The fact that the houses had only corners of +their roofs blown off showed that as a tornado it was distinctly +second-grade and without power to explode. + +England, shortly after, was raided by three water-spouts. These phenomena +are caused by precisely the same conditions as are the tornadoes. They +form over the sea, and the funnel is composed of water. They take +considerable bodies of water up into the skies and torrential rains result +over adjacent districts. If I remember correctly, two of the English +water-spouts broke against the cliffs and the other, moving inland in +modified form, gave Gloucester a nine-inch rain. Ships have been known to +fire cannon at these spouts. If one hit a boat directly damage might be +caused, but they have little of the destructive force of the tornado. + +As our country builds up the destruction from this most powerful of all +phenomena is likely to increase. Bureau warnings over phones may result in +the saving of some lives; cellars will undoubtedly be built in the +principal zones. But the problem is an interesting one, for unlike the +waterspout, cannon cannot be employed to shatter an emptiness that stalks +the more malignantly the emptier it is. + + +THE HURRICANE + +The tropical hurricane is undoubtedly nature's mightiest exhibit. The +hurricane is the cyclone par excellence. It does not differ from our +ordinary weekly cyclone in the essentials of wind rotation or pressures +or rainfall; but it does differ in place of birth, in its course, and +chiefly in its intensity. + +The genuine hurricane is a West Indian production. It is generally cradled +in those islands south and east of Jamaica and Cuba. It is nursed by the +trade-winds. The first notice of its birth is an alteration in these +winds, which are among the most regular observances on our planet. An +extensive formation of cirrus clouds spreads over the sky and the +barometer, which has been stationary for some days, edges off and begins a +long and gradual fall. Great rollers are noticed for a day or two before +the winds rise. A hurricane moves slowly. + +This tropical organization is superior in depth to our shallow, disc-like, +continental cyclone which is one and rarely over two miles thick. The +hurricane rears its head three, four, and even five miles high. Instead, +too, of dissipating its force over thousands of miles at once it is only a +few hundred miles in diameter. Its center moves methodically along at the +not very impressive speed of fifteen miles an hour, while our cyclones +hurry along at thirty. But the hurricane is thorough. The wind about its +center reaches a velocity of 120 miles an hour. This velocity has never +yet been attained on the surface of the earth by our trans-continental +cyclone. + +Our cyclone always has an eastward trend; the hurricane has a parabolic +course. It begins by moving west on the trades, drifting and dealing +destruction to the banana and sugar plantations of Jamaica. It enters the +Gulf of Mexico, and since it is then pretty much out of the influence of +the trades it curves to the right and begins to act like any other storm +by heading directly for the St. Lawrence. If it passes out through the +Florida straits it never reaches the St. Lawrence but speeds up the coast +and out to sea, usually at Hatteras to follow the shipping routes across +the North Atlantic. + +But if it has become so involved in the Gulf of Mexico that it cannot +escape to sea again, it comes up through the Gulf States and on toward New +England. Fortunately as it goes inland its intensity diminishes because it +has not so much energy-giving moisture to draw from. Also its sphere of +action widens, its embrace is less mighty, its characteristics more those +of an ordinary continental cyclone. It manages, however, to deliver gales +of 80 miles an hour along the coastal plain, increasing to 100 at the +exposed places such as Hatteras and Block Island. + +The intensest hours of a hurricane are those when its course is changing +from westward to eastward. Enormous rainfalls accompany these storms, +amounting to six inches in some instances. Since one inch of rain amounts +to 100 tons per acre, and 64,000 tons to a square mile one can imagine the +great amount of evaporation that has taken place to so saturate the air as +to drench vast territories to such an extent. + +While scarcely a year goes by without one of these West Indian hurricanes +distinguishing itself on our shores the one that visited Galveston in 1904 +eclipsed all. It chose to turn in the vicinity of the city. The gale +increased to over 100 miles an hour and the wind gauge then blew away. The +waters of the Bay were heaped up and three thousand lives were lost in the +flood and wreck of flying houses. This peculiar storm did not turn +northeast at once but ascended the Mississippi, turning at the Lakes and +proceeding down the St. Lawrence after having spent a week in our country. + +The listless doldrums have sent us 121 of these storms in the last +generation. June has seen 8, July 5, August 28, September 40, and October +40. + +Sea-yarners have seized upon the hurricane to energize many a flagging +chapter, and particularly have they emphasized the eye of the storm. The +eye is that vortex where contending winds neutralize each other into a +calm, where the sun shines out through the scud, where the waves, relieved +of the great pressure, leap upward in wild disorder. Then the center +passes and the wind flings itself upon the unlucky bark from the opposite +quarter. Its first onslaught is always represented as being the fiercest +of the whole storm and gradually lessening as the center drives farther +away. This is true in the same way that the first attack of the +thunderstorm is usually the fiercest, both being when the pressure begins +to rise. This savage change to the northwest is naturally the hardest of +all for the ships to bear as they must steady at once against the severest +blast instead of gradually bracing for its culmination. In no department +of meteorology has fiction adhered so closely to the facts as in the +sea-rover accounts of the hurricane. + +But in real life there is very little excuse for the vessel to be caught +anywhere near the disastrous center of the storm. Indeed, for generations +sea-captains have known how to escape the deadly eye. By watching the +barometer and noticing in which direction the wind is working round they +can tell the course to a nicety and estimate its speed. Then the wise +ones run the other way for even the _Olympics_ and _Imperators_ of the sea +are cowed by the might of the West Indian. + +The typhoons of the West Pacific are similar manifestations. + +The hurricane moves off from its birthplace so slowly that our Weather +Bureau has an opportunity to size it up, to chart its probable course, and +to warn shipping interests. The ship-owners, as a class, appreciate the +service of the Bureau and obey its warnings. Vessels with cargoes of a +total value of $30,000,000 were known to have been detained in port on the +Atlantic coast by the Bureau's warnings of a single hurricane. Now that a +much vaster commerce will steam through these dangerous waters toward the +Panama Canal the warnings will assume an even greater importance. + +The best description of a hurricane that it has been my fortune to read is +in a story entitled "Chita," one of the remarkable fictions of Lafcadio +Hearn. As truthfully as a scientist and with great beauty of style he has +pictured the long days of burning sun, the foreboding calm, the thickening +haze, the ominous increasing swell of the ocean, a breathless night with +the lightning glowing from between piling towers of cloud, the startling +suddenness of the wind's attack, its fury, the hissing rain, the shrill +crescendo of the gale. + + +CLOUDBURST + +It is the American tendency to exaggerate. We call every snowstorm a +blizzard, every breeze a gale, every shower a cloudburst. In our generous +vocabulary it never rains but it pours. Consequently if we, in the East, +ever had a real blizzard or a real cloudburst we should be at a +considerable loss to find words for an unprofane description. I do not +know how they manage out West where these things occur. + +A genuine cloudburst must be an amazing spectacle. It is caused by a +furious updraft of wind keeping a rainstorm in suspense until so much +water has accumulated that it has to let go all at once and the +accumulation descends like a wet blanket. + +This phenomenon is staged in the mountains; most often in the Rockies +where melting snow and desert-hot ravines provide the necessary extremes +of temperature. Wind blowing up a mountain-side can maintain considerable +force,--so much that a man cannot possibly walk against it. Black thunder +clouds brew on the peaks. Suddenly the collapse, and the person who tells +the story afterward finds himself struggling in a torrent that a minute +before had been a dry gulch. The moral of the story seems to be that if +you are camping in the mountains and there is a strong upstream wind +blowing and the clouds darken about the hill-tops and the thunder mumbles +then don't make your bed in the creek-bottom lands. The high water marks +of former freshets, but not of cloudbursts, show on the side of the +stream. + +Even in the less impulsive East a couple of inches of rain make a +surprising rise in a little creek. + + +THE HALO + +The halo is a luminous circle around the moon or the sun. It is caused by +the refraction of light passing through moisture, which at the usual +height is in the form of ice-crystals. The halo when complete consists of +two large circles whose diameters are constant, 45 and 92 degrees. Then +there are often other arches in contact. At each point of contact occurs a +parhelion which is a mock sun of brilliant colors and called a sun-dog. +Since the sun-dog is brighter than the other parts of the halo it +sometimes appears when the rest of the halo cannot be seen. Sun-dogs hunt +in pairs or fours. If the halo is colored the red is on the inside. When +the colors are caused by diffraction instead of refraction, the red is on +the outside of the prismatic ring and the halo is called a corona. + +Having now satisfied the demands of science all that can be forgotten +except that the halo around either sun or moon means excess moisture in +the atmosphere. The wide halos are seen in the high cirrus clouds 25, 36, +48 hours in advance of a cyclone. At first the ring is very wide and faint +with several stars in it. If the storm is advancing rapidly the halo +brightens and narrows and the stars fade. This is proof to show that the +proverb stating that the number of stars inside the ring is a forecast of +the number of days of storm is sheer nonsense. For presently the ring +closes and the stars disappear which would show according to the proverb +that the storm had changed its mind and would cut down the number of days +from several to none. + +The moon grows paler. The light that it casts upon the earth is eerie at +this stage. Within a few hours the cocoon of mist is completely woven +about the moon. The circle has closed. Snow or rain begins within a few +hours after the moon has entirely disappeared. If it does not so begin it +shows that the process of increasing humidity is a very slow one and the +storm center is probably passing far to one side of the observer. Also if +the snow begins before the light of the moon is entirely suppressed the +disturbance is a shallow one and the storm will be light. + +When the halo is actually a corona (red outside) the approach of the storm +can be gauged by the rapidity with which the circle grows smaller. For a +decrease in diameter denotes that the size of the moisture drops is +increasing and therefore the storm is approaching. As a matter of fact the +corona will have disappeared long before the time for rain. Still it is +useful to know that if the corona increases in size the conditions are +clearing. With the halo the reverse holds. For when the clouds are very +high the halo looks small, and high clouds imply swifter winds and a +greater distance from the storm center. + +The Zuñi Indians who have an eye for the picturesque as well as for the +truth state the chief fact about haloes happily: "When the sun is in his +house it will rain soon." Another saying of theirs anent cumulus clouds +holds for our country as well as for theirs: "When the clouds rise in +terraces of white, soon will the country of the corn-priests be pierced +with the arrows of rain." + +There are many little observations which the man who has kept the corner +of his eye open may profit by and yet which are rather difficult to +express in type. Who could describe an egg for instance whose springtide +of youth was far behind and yet was not quite ready for the discard! In +nature it is the fleeting moment of transition, the half-tones of the +border that are so hard to catch, so difficult to portray, and yet so very +important not to miss if one is to become sure. There follow some of the +baldest and most communicable half-facts about the weather that should be +used oftener to bolster up some opinion gleaned from more positive sources +than to mould one in their own strength. + +Moisture in the atmosphere helps sight to a certain extent. For when the +air is full of moisture its temperature tends to become equalized, +obliterating irregularities which would otherwise reflect the vibrations +producing sight and sound. So if one hears better or sees better on a +certain day it augurs a moister atmosphere,--an auxiliary sign if there is +a view that you are fond of looking at many times a day. In the city, +alas, clearer vision on one day than another means merely that less coal +is being used. But in camp there is very often a perceptible difference +in one's seeing ability even on days that could all be classed as clear. + +Another thing that the haunter of the woods may notice is that his +smelling capacity is increased before a storm. The increase of humidity +which precedes a rain buoys up odors and depresses smoke. Even in dry +weather if you will stroll by a marsh you will notice how rank the +vegetation smells and how the smells float in layers in the air strata of +different humidity. One's sense of smell is a very slender thread on which +to hang a storm, however. + +Fires burn more briskly in dry air than in moist, but to tell the +difference (if you can't feel it) you must be very sure that your wood is +as dry on one day as on another. + +Before a rain many plants close their flowers or shift their leaves. The +dandelion, pimpernel, red clover, silver maple are good examples of this, +but they would not be of much use in the North Woods. The closing, too, +takes place only a few hours before rain and is merely confirmation of the +signals rendered more adequately by clouds and winds. + +Bugs and flies are particularly annoying before a storm and it is +surprising that the spider should not take advantage of this to get a +meal. But spiders are cautious and they never spin a web on the grass, at +least on the day that brings a storm. The insects do not fly so high on +these weather-breeding days and consequently the birds that feed on them +fly lower. The chimney swifts are a particularly good guide to the +different altitudes at which insects fly. + +The stars are on a par with bugs as weather guides, although there are +many proverbs that grant them much. One circumstance should not be +neglected, however, and that is that wind mixes air and when air is well +mixed atmospheric inequalities are less disturbing to vision. Hence when +one can see the stars and the moon well wind currents are oftenest the +cause. Even if it is not blowing on earth these wind currents may yet be +blowing above to reach the earth later. In this way cold waves arrive. +There is an old proverb about this condition, applying it to the moon, +"Sharp horns do threaten windy weather." + +But the stars are of second rate importance because they are so soon +obscured. If you can't see them it is cloudy, but you do not know what +kind of cloud it is. If only the brightest show, a veil of cirrus is +arriving. A dark sky with only a few dim stars is an omen of storms. If +the stars twinkle it is because the varying currents of the upper air are +in juxtaposition. If they twinkle while the northwest wind is on it is a +sign of colder weather,--not because they are twinkling but because of the +northwest wind. + +In the days when almanacs were the sole guides to the weather a man with a +sense of humor, Butler by name, got out one and dedicated it to "Torpid +Liver and Inflammatory Rheumatism, the Most Insistent Weather Prophets +Known to Suffering Mortals." Rheumatism is following the almanac to the +scrap heap, and it would be harder for a camper to guess what a torpid +liver was like than to forecast the weather, yet for the majority of +"suffering mortals" there is still much truth in the amiable observation +of Mr. Butler, + + "As old sinners have old points + O' the compass in their bones and joints." + + + + +CHAPTER V + +THE BAROMETER + + +Whatever the foregoing chapters may imply as to the whole world going +camping the fact is that the woods are still, unfortunately, for the few. +The woodsman must yield gracefully to the suburbanite,--in numbers. + +But the weather is for everybody. To be sure the sunrise that talks so +confidentially to the hunter of the coming day does not exist for the +commuter. But the coming day does, even though the things it means are +essentially different. To the hunter with his seasoned clothes and +well-earned health a rain is only of concern in so much as it affects the +business of the day; personally it is of small moment. But to the commuter +what does the weather mean? Dollars and cents, of course. His business +goes on, but to his person one unexpected shower = the cost of pressing a +suit; one thorough soaking = one doctor's bill. For you cannot expect +the man to throw off a chill who can quiet his conscience on the matter of +daily exercise by watering the geraniums and reading the newspaper. + +Weather wisdom is necessary for the hunter; for the commuter it pays. + +The hunter had to rely on local weather signs. The commuter can go him one +better by investing $10 (how finance will creep in!) in a little aneroid +barometer. The local weather signs were good for twelve hours at the +longest. The barometer is a faithful instrument that adds another twelve +hours to a man's knowledge. Half a day, or even a day before any local +sign of changing wind or growing cloud appears the barometer is on the +job. It will register in Philadelphia the news of a disturbance +approaching the Mississippi. So sensitive is it that it is the slave to +every wave of the great air ocean. + +The barometer gauges for the eye the amount of atmosphere that is piled +above one. If the amount is normal and at sea-level the instrument will +measure 30.00 inches. This air pressure is equivalent to a column of water +30 feet high. As this would make unwieldy prognosticators the scientists +use mercury instead, which requires a column less than three feet long. +And for general purposes this is supplanted by the handy little aneroid +(which means "without fluid"). This is so fixed that the pressure of the +air influences the upper surface of a vacuum chamber, balanced perfectly +between this pressure and a main spring. This action is transmitted to an +index hand moving across the dial marked into fractions of inches after +the manner of the recognized standard, the mercurial barometer. + +When the warm moist light air of a cyclone invades a locality the pressure +is partially removed, the vacuum chamber is not pressed so hard and the +dial hand or the mercury subsides. When the cold, dry, heavy air of the +anticyclone lumbers in more pressure is applied and the mercury, or the +dial hand, climbs. So a falling barometer means a storm, a rising one fair +weather. + +That is a generality that glitters. If that were all there was to it +weather officials would have a sinecure. But each cyclone varies in size, +intensity, and rate of progress. Some do not advance for days. Therefore +there has grown up a pretty large body of information as each storm has +had to be watched and the barometric movements recorded. The most +important variations follow: + +Remembering that 30.00 inches is sea-level normal, if the barometer is +steady at 30.10 or 30.20 the weather will remain fair as long as the +steadiness continues, and on the turn, if the fall proceeds slowly with +the wind from a westerly direction fair to partly cloudy weather with +slowly rising temperature will follow for two days. + +If the barometer rises rapidly from 30.10 the fall will be equally rapid +and rain or snow may be expected within a couple of days. Since the +depressions of the atmosphere tend to a certain regularity about the +center of the storm it follows that the reactions will follow the actions +in similar manner,--a long rise portending a long fall and a variable +glass meaning unsettled conditions. + +The barometer does not rise with wind from an easterly direction unless a +shift is imminent. In winter the air is so much colder over the land than +over the sea that the air brought in by an easterly wind is soon +condensed. Consequently with winds from the south or southeast, even if +the barometer is 30.20 or 30.10 and falling slowly rain usually arrives +(and rain of course is meant to include snow whenever the mercury is below +the freezing point) within 24 hours. If the fall is rapid there may be +precipitation within 12 hours, and the wind will rapidly increase and the +temperature rise. + +If the wind is from the east or northeast and the barometer 30.10 or above +and falling slowly it means rain within 24 hours in winter. In summer if +the wind is light rain may not fall for a day or so. If the fall is rapid +in winter rain with increasing winds will often set in when the barometer +begins its fall and the wind gets to a point a little east of north. + +If the barometer is 30.00 or below and falling slowly with northeast to +southeast winds the storm will continue 24 to 48 hours. If the barometer +falls rapidly the wind will be high with rain and the change to rising +barometer with clearing and colder will probably come within 20 to 30 +hours. + +If the barometer is below 30.00 but rising slowly the clear weather will +last several days. + +If the barometer is 29.80 or below and falling rapidly with winds south of +east a severe storm is at hand to be followed within 24 hours by clearing +and colder. Under the same conditions but with northeast winds there will +occur heavy snow followed by a cold wave. + +If these promises do not always bear fruit it is because they will have +been interrupted by an unseen shifting of the atmospheric weights. But +the barometer will record them. A rapid rise may be checked in ascent and +the instrument may fluctuate like a stock-ticker. Its tale is of very +unsettled weather conditions and consequently no particular brand of +weather will last for very long at a time. + +A sudden rise of the barometer may bring its gale of wind as well as a +sudden fall. But the tendency will be toward clearing and much colder. + +A fall of the barometer on a west wind is not common. It means rain. A +rise on a south wind means fair. A low barometer and a cold south wind +mean a change to west with squalls for a while. On the other hand, a high +barometer with warmer weather means a shift of the wind to southerly +quarters and an imminent fall. + +If the barometer rises fast and the temperature does, too, look for +another storm. This is often noticed in summer. + +There is a slight daily oscillation of the mercury, which, if other things +are steady, registers highest at 10 A. M. and 10 P. M. and lowest at 4 A. +M. and 4 P. M. + +If this data confuses bear in mind the simple ordinary progress of the +barometer in the usual storm: First, it will stand steady for a day or so +at any point between 30.10 and 30.50. Then the glass will begin (for most +storms) to fall gradually. As the center nears the fall hastens. After the +lowest point has been reached a slight rise will be followed by another +slight fall and then the final long rise will commence. The rain begins +and ceases at different stages for different storms, depending upon the +wind's velocity and direction. + +For every 900 feet of altitude the height of the mercury is about one inch +less. Do not complain that your barometer is inaccurate if you are living +up in the mountains and your readings are not the same as the weather +reports which are reduced to sea level. All the figures given in this +chapter are for sea level and if your house is 1900 feet above you must +move the copper hand of your aneroid 1.95 inches from the pressure hand. +If the pressure hand would read 28.05 the adjustable copper hand would +read 30.00 which is the sea level reading. + +One good thing to remember is that a barometer falls lower for high winds +than for heavy rain. A fall of two- or three-tenths of an inch in four +hours brings a gale. In the ordinary gale the wind blows hardest when the +barometer begins its rise from a very low point. + +In summer a suddenly falling barometer foretells a thunderstorm, and if +the corresponding rise does not at once take place the unsettled +conditions will continue with probably another thunderstorm. If you see +the thunderstorm first, that is, if the barometer is not affected by the +approaching black cloud you may be sure that the storm will amount to +nothing. + +The man in the fields or along the shore has many natural barometers in +animal life. But these natural barometers only corroborate; they do not +foretell, at least very long before. Some are useful at times and among +these the birds are foremost. The observant Zuñis have incorporated this +in one of their pretty proverbs, "When chimney swallows circle and call +they speak of rain." As a matter of fact the swallows are circling most of +the time after insects. If they are flying high it is because the bugs are +flying high and that is because there is no danger of rain. As the rain +nears the air gets moister, the bugs and the birds fly lower. + +Whether they do this because their instinct is to avoid a wetting or +because the lighter atmosphere of a cyclone makes flying more difficult, +particularly at altitudes, I do not know. For weather purposes it is +enough to watch their comparative levels. Wild geese are excellent signs, +I am told, but it would be a dry country that waits for a sight of them +for its rain. + +Bees localize before a storm and will not swarm. Flies crowd upon the +screens of houses when humidity is high, possibly because the appetizing +odors from within are buoyed afar by the heavy air. Cuckoos seek the +higher ground in fair weather and disappear into bottom lands before a +rain. Although they are called rain-crows they are heard in all weathers. + +Smoke is as good an evidence of barometric pressure as anything except the +instrument itself. On clear, still days it will mount; on humid days +without wind it will cling to the hill. There is that difference. But it +takes skill and many comparisons to gauge its angles in the wind. It +becomes a test in observation and finally rewards one by becoming an +excellent sign not only of air texture but of the direction of its +currents. + +No reference to barometers would be complete without mentioning spiders. +They show a most delicate apprehension of changing conditions. If the day +is to be fine and without wind they will run out long threads and be +rather active. If the rain is nearing they strengthen their webs, shorten +the filaments and sit dully in the center. Fresh webs on the lawn insure +a clear day. But for the commuter, whose time is money, there is little +leisure to consider the spider. + +As a natural result of the variation in altitude affecting the barometer +the words which are printed on the face become entirely useless. In some +places it would be impossible for the needle to point higher than "Very +Stormy." Even at sea level a sudden fall to "Fair" would cause a rain, +much to the indignation of the person who thought that he had purchased a +self-registering weather prophet. Disregard the words but watch the needle +and you will never be surprised at what the weather is doing next. + + + + +CHAPTER VI + +THE SEASONS + + +Too great emphasis cannot be laid upon the futility, at present, of trying +to forecast the weather for more than a very few days in advance. Long +range efforts are not made by the Bureau because with its present limited +knowledge of the factors that control seasons and with the present limited +facilities for collecting data the process of looking into next month has +not been perfected, and the attempt to investigate next winter's weather +proves scientifically impossible. + +As usual, fakers step in where science fears to tread. With goose-bones +(not their own) and hickory nuts they prophesy with all their might. And +if their prophecies come true, as sometimes they must, there is wide +rejoicing in the newspapers and the cause of science is set back by just +so much. But science cannot be thwarted in the end and every year new +discoveries are made, new speculations proved true or forever false, and +some time, doubtless, the weather will be predicted from year to year +with the same 85% accuracy with which the 36 hour forecast is now made. +Experimenting is worth the little that it costs, too, for to know when the +summer is to be dry or wet, hot or cold will be a boon to everybody and to +the farmer most of all. + +One conclusion has already been reached by officials in the Weather Bureau +and scientists generally. It has been decided by long search through +creditable records, painstaking comparisons of averages coupled with the +most accurate investigations for half a century, that, on the basis of ten +years, our seasons do not change. That is, counting the decade as a unit, +our weather keeps to the same level of efficiency through the centuries. + +This statement comes always as a blow. It always provokes argument and +citations of grandmother's blizzards. There is a great and universal +hesitation in believing that our weather is as good to-day as it used to +be. The good old times when there was a general debauch of snow and you +could skate all winter on anything but the Atlantic Ocean certainly appear +no more. As a matter of fact there has been a change, but it has been in +our memories. In grandmother's youth the trains,--if they had trains +then,--doubtless were stalled by a big snow for then they did not have +rotary plows. In father's day they may have had an unbroken winter of +sleighing. We couldn't now; sleighs are extinct. But in our time, in fact +every year, some record is being broken and the records go back a +respectable length of time. + +For example in Philadelphia the most accurate records made by standard +instruments have been kept for 43 years. During this time the highest wind +velocity was recorded in 1878 (75 miles an hour). The greatest rainfall in +24 hours occurred in 1898 (5.89 inches). The lowest temperature was +registered in 1899 (6 degrees below zero); the highest in 1901 (103 +degrees). The greatest number of thunderstorms for any one year took place +in 1905 when we had 51. As late as 1909 the heaviest snowfall ever +recorded at this station, amounting to 21 inches, occurred. And just a few +weeks ago (April 3rd, 1915) it snowed 19 inches in half as many hours. All +these items do not indicate a climate decreasing in virility very swiftly. + +But there is more evidence yet that Philadelphia is experiencing the same +varieties of weather in about the same proportions. Diaries of observant +men running back to 1700 show that almost any kind of memory could be +founded on fact, that the same violent changes in temperature, the same +deep snows and unseasonable seasons that we endure to-day were noticed +then. To quote: + +"The whole winter of 1780 was intensely cold. The Delaware was closed from +the 1st of December to the 14th of March. The ice was from two to three +feet thick." We despaired of ever living up to this until three years ago +when the same thing happened and sleighs crossed the river a little above +the city. And despite the new ice-boats! + +"The winter of 1779 was very mild, particularly the month of February when +trees were in blossom." + +"On the 31st of December, 1764, the Delaware was frozen completely over in +one night, and the weather continued cold until the 28th of March with +snow about two and a half feet deep." + +"The winter of 1756 was very mild. The first snow was as late as the 18th +of March." + +And so it goes. 1750 was mild; 1742 "one of the coldest since the +settlement of the country"; 1741 was intensely cold, 1725 mild, 1714 very +mild after the 15th of January, 1697 long, stormy and severely cold. The +upshot of it all is that February violets and April snows were just as +well known to General Washington as they are to us. + + +[Illustration: NIMBUS + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_ + +Nimbus is any cloud from which rain is falling, and the important thing to +know is how to judge from the formless thing how much longer it is to +rain. The wind is the surest guide. In this picture the nimbus cloud is +only that at the end of the cape. All the rest is torn stratus and +cumulus, which needs to condense a little further before it becomes +nimbus. This will likely happen because the cloud at the left is very +dark. The broken appearance denotes some wind. Rain does not fall from a +mottled sky nor yet a streaky one; the nimbus is uniform in appearance. In +summer a break in the nimbus will show a veil of cirro-stratus above. Just +nimbus by itself will not support much of a storm. In winter if the nimbus +is particularly seamless snow is about to fall.] + + +But though all facts point to the fact that the climate does not change in +a decade or a generation or a dozen generations, there is some comfort for +those who are not satisfied in knowing that it doesn't stay the same +forever. During the carboniferous times the poles were as warm as the +tropics and when the Ice Age came on it was very chilly everywhere. If one +might only live an eon or two he might then well complain of the changing +climate. + +Climate, however, is one thing, weather another. The climate is the sum +total of the weather. Climate is as enduring as our Constitution, the +weather is as changeable as our city governments. No matter how proud a +scientist may be of the lasting qualities of the climate, he has to admit +that our weather, taken day by day or even year by year, is versatile in +the extreme. And the question he has set himself to solve is how to +explain the variations of the seasonable weather. He wants to find out why +all winters are not alike, and why no two successive springs are the same. +Then he will be on firm ground at last and able to make scientific +forecasts for the ensuing year. + +The obvious thing was to find out as accurately as possible what had +happened and science's keenest eye was focused on records in the hope of +discovering fixed periods of warmth or wetness, cycles of cold and +drought. So far no cycles have been discovered that are beyond dispute. +Nothing has been found that cannot be contradicted successfully. This is +discouraging. + +One of the most frequent starting places for investigators is the spots on +the sun. They found that periods of three, eight, eleven, and thirty-five +years should bear some resemblance; 1901 was eagerly looked forward to. +They wanted it to correspond with the remarkably cool summer of 1867. When +it started off in July with a temperature of 103 degrees, the highest ever +recorded in Philadelphia, they concluded that the sunspots were fooling +them. A connection between sunspots and weather has not been established, +therefore, although they are now known to affect the electrical condition +of the earth's atmosphere. Longer periods of observation will permit +comparisons that may yet define concurrent cycles of sunspots and weather. + +A definite weather cycle has not yet been discovered, but one step in the +way has been cleared up. We now are pretty sure of one cause for unusual +single seasons of heat and cold. + +There exist in winter great bodies of cold, dry air heaped up over Canada +and Siberia, which are formed by the greater rapidity of radiation over +land surfaces than over water. These mounds of cold air build up during +December, January, and February and form great so-called permanent areas +of high barometer. It is on the skirts of the Canadian high that the +smaller highs form which sweep over our country, giving us our cold waves. +Also in winter permanent lows form over the North Pacific and North +Atlantic where warm currents afford continuous supplies of warm moist air. +From the great Aleutian (Pacific) low spring most of the cyclones which +swing down below the border of the Canadian high, make their turn +somewhere in the Mississippi Valley, and then head for the Icelandic low. + +It can be seen that if the Canadian high is a little stronger than usual +and spreads a little farther south, then the northern half of our country +will come more directly under its influence and we will experience an +unusually severe winter. As the storms are pushed south and as the cold +air pours into the northern quadrants the snow line is pushed south too. +Hence all abnormally snowy winters are caused by a strengthening of the +permanent Canadian high which may be central anywhere north of our Dakota +or Montana borders. + +Conversely, if this high is weaker than usual the cyclones can cross the +country on a line farther north, there will be less snow, and the cold +waves that follow will be less severe or even non-existent. + +In summer the reverse occurs. Great oceanic highs are built up over the +South Atlantic and South Pacific and a permanent low occupies the center +of our continent. The character of the season is determined by the +strength and position of these areas. The eastern states are affected +especially by the slow movements of the South Atlantic low. The puzzle is +why should these areas change their power and position, and if they must +change why don't they do it regularly? The puzzle will undoubtedly be +solved. These great centers of action will be plotted against and observed +from every vantage point by a thousand observers. A fascinating field for +scientific speculation opens. + +At present our Government exchanges daily observations with stations in +Siberia, Canada, and the West Indies. The great storm-breeder, the +Aleutian Low, is watched from Alaskan shores. In the Atlantic the Bureau +needs stationary ships to record the growth and decline of the High over +the Azores. Knowledge of the wind circulation from this would inform us +whether our storms were to be shunted farther north and pushed somewhat +inland. A storm which is pushed to the left of its normal track increases +tremendously in intensity. Whereas a cyclone that limps slackly to the +right of its normal line loses intensity at once. It misses coil. In this +respect storms seem to resemble rattlesnakes. + +The energy of the Azores High influences the number and destructiveness of +the West Indian hurricanes: the larger the area is the closer do the +hurricanes hug our shores and the more destruction do they accomplish. + +The very sureness that the general average of the seasons is to be the +same enables us to guess pretty accurately for individual purposes as to +the kind of season coming next. A guess, let me add, is not a forecast. It +is a gamble and disapproved of by the Bureau, but until they supply us +with a basis for judgment we will have to go on guessing, for human +curiosity is as near to perpetual motion as the weather is to the lacking +fourth dimension. + +One of these guesses is that if the winter has been a warm one the summer +will be cool, for the very good reason that the yearly average does depart +so slightly from the fixture. Unfortunately one hot summer does not mean +that the following summer will be cool. Certain sequences of the seasons +have been observed often enough to have been gathered into proverbs. +Everybody agrees that "A late spring never deceives." "A year of snow, +Fruit will grow." "A green winter makes a full churchyard." + +Of the many hundreds of proverbs relating to the seasons a few are sage, +some outworn, and many sheer nonsense. Nearly all refer to the obvious +fact that one kind of season is followed by another rather unlike it, not +much telling what. And there, unsatisfactorily enough, they leave one. But +much is to be hoped for from the scientific explorations now in progress. +And until they are heard from few of us will realize how many seasonable +seasons we really enjoy. + + + + +CHAPTER VII + +THE WEATHER BUREAU + + +At the cost of a cent and a half a year apiece we Americans are supplied +with detailed information in advance about the weather. And the +information is correct for more than four-fifths of the time. If stock +brokers never missed oftener, what reputations would accrue! + +Cheapness, accuracy, and a certain modesty are the three qualities that +distinguish the out-givings of the Bureau from the old-fashioned +predictions of the weather which used to appear in almanacs. Almanacs have +probably kept appearing ever since the art of printing first allowed +unscrupulous persons to juggle with words. They cost fifty cents and their +predictions were based on nothing but the strength of their author's +imagination. Of course, it was impossible for him to guess wrong more than +half the time so that when he announced in January that July would be hot +with thunderstorms he was often right. This gave him prestige, but aided +his clients little. + +The Weather Bureau was in about the same position in regard to the quack +predictions of the almanacs as was the honest doctor of the last decade +who could only prescribe good food and fresh air and moderate exercise for +the patient who much preferred the expensive allurements of the medicinal +cure-all as advertised. In humility the Bureau said that as things stood +it could not forecast with accuracy for more than 48 hours, and its +honesty brought it into disregard. + +But, although the Weather Bureau,--like the Christian Church and other +things that have had to combat superstition at every step--has grown +slowly it has grown surely and its work is being recognized more widely +and relied upon more understandingly every month. It was an American +scientist who discovered the rotary motion of cyclones and their +progressive character, but due to the conservative nature of our +Government three other nations had established weather services before we +had. In 1870 the War Department was authorized to start a system of +observations that would permit of a rough sort of forecasting. The +forecasts proved of so much value to shippers and sailors that the work +was handed over to the Department of Agriculture and enlarged (1891). +To-day every part of our country contributes to the knowledge of existing +weather conditions. + +At 8 A. M. observations are made at hundreds of stations and wired to the +Central Office at Washington. The Chief there, knowing these conditions, +is enabled to locate a storm, to gauge its rate of speed, to learn its +course, and to measure its intensity. He can dictate storm warnings and be +sure that within an hour every sailing master will have a copy. He can +detect a cold wave at its entrance into our territory and know that within +an hour every shipper, every truckster (who has signified that he wishes +to be informed) will have the facts that will save him money. + +At 8 P. M. the same stations telegraph the changed conditions, and if any +very violent disturbance is in progress an observation is made at noon. +Besides the Washington distributing station there are 1700 others from +which warnings are sent by telegraph, telephone, or mail. There are +100,000 addresses on the mailing list and 5,000,000 telephone subscribers +can get them within an hour. The newspapers reach many millions. And all +this at a cost of 1-1/2 cents a year. If we, in a fit of generosity, +should pay 2 cents, or even 2-1/2 the Government would be enabled to work +out many of the larger problems awaiting only a larger appropriation to be +attacked. + +The people's investment of $1,600,000 a year is a good investment. In one +year the Service saves a great many hundred per cent. A few known savings +are worth giving; $3,500,000 worth of protection was made possible from +one exceptionally severe cold wave; the California citrus growers +estimated that one warning saved $14,000,000 worth of fruit; $30,000,000 +of shipping (and cargoes) was known to have been detained in port just on +account of one hurricane warning, and there are many warnings of gales +every year. Uncalculated savings have been effected among the growers of +tobacco, sugar, cranberries, truck. The railway and transportation +companies save, through use of the forecasts, in shipments of bananas, +oysters, fish, and eggs. Farmers, manufacturers, raisin driers, +photographers, insurance companies, and about a hundred and fifty other +occupations increase their profits by a systematic study of the forecasts. + +The people who live along the rivers often owe their lives and frequently +much of their property to telephone warnings of approaching floods. The +flood stages in all the principal rivers and streams have been calculated +and losses are reduced by 75 per cent. by accurate predictions as to when +the crest of the flood may be expected and how high it will reach. A +hundred uses of river forecasts, even when flood stages are not expected +are given in the booklet, "The Weather Bureau" which you can have from +Washington for the asking, like many another of their publications. + +Yet, with all the good it does, the man on the street still regards the +Bureau as an uninteresting, undependable exhibit in the upper corner of +the newspaper,--if he regards it at all. It is his child, however, who is +instructing him. For his child is being taught in the public school all +about it and he takes his teaching home and becomes the teacher. The child +is father of the (old) man in lots of instances. + +The most impressive thing about the whole output of the Bureau to the +child is its Map. The Bureau issues a map every day which is posted in +post-offices and railroad stations and in schools, too, if they ask for +it. And every day this map shows in all its gripping details the way our +storms are sidling across the continent or rushing up our coasts. It +prints the word low where the stormy area of low barometer is. About the +low run continuous black lines numbered 29.7, 29.8, 29.9, etc., which show +where in the country the pressures are the same. + +As the numbers run up to 30.0, 30.1, 30.2 they begin to circle about the +word High which denotes where the pressure is highest. Little circles will +be observed on the map. Some are clear, indicating clear weather; others +are half clear, half black, indicating partly cloudy conditions; others +are all black, showing clouds; others have R. or S. inside them, telling +where it is raining. The numbers under the circles show how much it has +rained or snowed and the numbers under the other numbers are the +velocities of the winds. The arrows through the circles fly with the wind. +A little zig-zag locates each thunderstorm and the shaded portions show +over what portions of the country it has rained during the last 24 hours. +As an intelligent puzzle picture the map is unequaled and no wonder the +child likes it. + +With this map you can tell at a glance what the weather is doing to your +uncle in Tacoma and to your cousin in Missouri. With two successive maps +you can find out about how fast the storms are traveling, in what +direction, and how low the temperatures are under their influence, and so +estimate for yourself the weather for the next three days. + +Besides the invaluable daily weather map the Bureau issues many other maps +that present the phenomena of the week, the month, and the season in +graphic form. Masters of vessels are now coöperating with the government +to provide observations at sea, and both on our northwest and southeast +coasts such information is very valuable. In the west several hundreds of +stations are maintained in the mountains for the purpose of obtaining the +depth and content of the great snowfalls there. Estimates can then be +given out as to the amount of water to be available for irrigating +purposes. In addition to the 220 stations of the first class there are +4200 coöperative stations at which observations are made and mailed to 44 +centers for distribution. + +Special local data help to establish the relations between climate and +forestry, agriculture, water resources, and allied subjects. Many +bulletins are compiled by experts in their respective lines and these are +for free distribution. A study of forest cover is being made in Colorado +and the effects of denudation on the flow of streams will soon be +scientifically established. As soon as practicable the Bureau hopes to +extend its period of forecasting. Weekly forecasts have been tried in a +general way with success, but long-range forecasting depends upon so many +relationships of the air that present knowledge and facilities do not +warrant its adoption. + + + + +CHAPTER VIII + +A CHAPTER OF EXPLOSIONS + + +In the good old times when a man was born, spent his life, and died in the +same village the weather proverb was fashioned. Generations had watched +the clouds gather under certain circumstances and scatter under certain +others and they naturally drew conclusions. These conclusions crystallized +until they resembled nuggets of golden weather wisdom. Some were even used +as charms. And all contained a deal of truth so long as they were only +meant to refer to the country in which they had originated. + +But nowadays when the very idea of remaining in the same place for very +long at a time is obnoxious the weather proverb suffers. It suffers +chiefly by transportation. The weather in County Cork is so very different +from the weather that makes Chicago famous that the same weather lore does +not fit. Yet it is often applied. The old truths, treasured in picturesque +phrase and jingle, were brought over the ocean unchanged and made to do +duty,--a case of new wine in old bottles again, for a gentle old Irish +proverb splits up the back when it tries to accommodate itself to a week +of our reckless but magnificent weather. + +Fairy stories are jewels to be cherished. And it is a careless and +unimaginative race that perpetuates no legends. Even old saws are quaint +and should be preserved: "See a pin and pick it up, all the day you'll +have good luck." Let that sort of thing go on because it adds richness to +our conversation. But if a thousand men, after having picked up their +morning pins, sat around waiting for the ensuing luck the progress of +scientific business management would be halted. And precisely that way is +the knowledge of ordinary weather facts halted,--a full-grown superstition +sits in the path. Instead of relying upon their eyes the majority of +people rely upon a bit of doggerel. For example, millions of people firmly +believe that the ground-hog is a key to the weather. They say that if the +ground-hog does not see his shadow on the 2nd of February that winter is +over! + +This is the sort of thing that obscures the findings of science not to +mention common-sense. Few of these people have ever seen a ground-hog. +Few of the rest have ever studied its habits. The ant, the mouse, the fly, +the rat, and the mosquito have far more influence upon our lives than the +ground-hog has and the most ambitious animal cannot expect to influence +atmospheric pressure, which is responsible for our weather. Yet as often +as the 2nd of February comes around the hopes of many are either dashed or +raised according to the actions of this creature. As a matter of fact, +whether February 2nd is clear or cloudy can have no influence on the rest +of the winter. + +Almost all the other proverbs have a basis of reason. But this puts its +believers in the wrong either way. If they say that it is the actions of +the animal that they rely upon they depend upon a characteristic +thoroughly and surely disproved. No animal, although it may sense a change +in the weather a few hours in advance, is able to feel it for three days +ahead to say nothing of six weeks. If these people say, on the other hand, +that a cloudy February 2nd means an immediate and complete let up of +winter, or that a clear February 2nd means a certain continuance of cold +weather for six weeks, they have only to trouble themselves to look at the +files of the nearest Weather Bureau for the last forty years. They will +find no connection. The trouble is that they will not look, but keep on +repeating the bit of nonsense and believing in it, although the strength +of their convictions probably does not reduce their coal-bills. + +The same people are fond of saying that the first three days of December +show what the winter will be like. That is, if the 1st is fair so will +December be; if the 2nd is cold so will January be; and if it snows on the +3rd, so will it snow in February. If all three should be clear and warm +certainly a remarkable winter would follow! No rain, no snow, no cold! You +see how absurd this superstition is. + +"A dry moon lies on its back!" After the ground-hog the moon is supposed +to have the most influence on our seasons. The Government and many +scientists connected with no governments have made careful, exhaustive and +conclusive investigations. No relation between the moon and our weather +has been discovered except as she causes our tides and they affect +atmospheric pressure in an infinitesimal degree. We would still have just +as much and just as variable weather if there were no moon. The weather +changes with the changing moon, and it does not change as the moon +changes, and the chances are about even that the times of change will +coincide. So there is, therefore, absolutely no foundation for the dozens +of proverbs that yoke the changes of the moon with the changes of our +weather. Neither in science nor in observation has any sequence been +deduced. + +So the moon may lie on its back or on its side or stand on its head and +the weather will remain dry if no low pressure areas cross the country, +and it can lie on its back for days and the country be drowned out if they +do. There are enough pretty things to say about the moon, anyway, and will +be more all the time for, to commit a paraphrase: Science is stranger than +superstition. + +"It will rain for forty days straight if it rains on St. Swithin's Day," +which, I might as well say for the benefit of those who don't know their +saints, falls on July 15th every year. It would be interesting to know how +many people in a hundred really believe this, or really believe all the +other things that are attributed to the saints,--quite a few, probably. +Luckily for St. Swithin July and August are wet months, with often several +days of showers or thunderstorms in succession. But never once in +Philadelphia has it rained for forty days, one right after another, +although half the July 15ths have been rained on. This proverb is one of +those that had better never been transplanted from its native Ireland +where rain for 40 days would excite scarcely a curse. + +"Long and loud singing of robins denotes rain." It does not. Oftener than +not it denotes the time of day. Just watch the robins and listen to them +and see what they do before a storm, during it, after it, and then you +will see how little the songs of birds can be depended upon to supplant +the barometer. + +"If March comes in like a lion it will go out like a lamb," and the other +way round. I have seen March come in like a lion and go out like a lion, +come in like a lion and go out like a lamb, come in like a lamb and go out +like a lion, and come in like a lamb and go out like a Noah's ark. But I +never have seen March do anything dependable. It is quite impossible to +tell how March is going out on March 27th, and absolutely impossible to +tell on March 1st. + +But there is this much observation expressed in the proverb, that March is +so changeable that, if it comes in cold, windy, unsettled, there is not so +much chance for such weather still to be going on at the end of the month, +and still less in England where the proverb came from. This is a harmless +proverb unless it should lead people to actually count upon a pleasant +spring just because March had an unpleasant inception. Misfortunes rarely +come singly, even on the weather calendar. + +"When squirrels are scarce in autumn the winter will be severe." Aside +from the scientific truth that the animals cannot know in advance about +the seasons there is little evidence on either side to base a contention. +Nobody has made a squirrel census; nobody, probably, has found out whether +they increase in numbers for six years and then die off in great +quantities as do the rabbits in the north country on the seventh; nobody +has connected their apparent numbers year after year with the actual +severities of the winters. And so nobody has a right to promulgate the +report (except as a bit of nonsense like April Fool) that the ensuing +winter is going to be a record breaker because the squirrels have +disappeared. It would be far truer to say that "When squirrels are scarce +in autumn the hunters have been busy," and let it go at that. + +There are a lot of proverbs in this connection about goose bones and +hickory nuts and wild geese, which sound plausible but are never proved. +If the birds have all the sense credited to them it is strange that some +allow themselves to be caught by an early snowstorm in the fall and +decimated. Also it is not uncommon for early migrations in the spring to +arrive in the north to be slain by the thousand by a belated blizzard. It +is granted that animals and birds, having a far greater sensitiveness than +man, occasionally sense a catastrophe some hours before it is evidenced by +any visual signs, but seasonal wisdom has not been proved in any one +instance and disproved in many. None of the proverbs relating to the +animals and birds are to be depended upon. They deceive, much to the +regret of all the meteorologists who would welcome any genuine clue to +nature of the coming season. Any farmer would be only too glad to keep a +menagerie of squirrels and wild geese and toads if only he might be +assured by them of the coming seasonal conditions. + +The proverbs given indicate the range, possibly, but certainly not the +full absurdity of the old weather sayings. There are many other proverbs +that contain at least a half truth. + +"Enough blue sky to make a Dutchman's breeches indicates clearing," is one +that is true if the wind has changed to the west. If the wind still blows +from an easterly quarter blue sky for a Dutchman's whole wardrobe would +not insure clear weather. All sayings must be tested many times before +they are believed implicitly. + +"There is always a thaw in January," is about as true a generalization as +can be made about things for which generalizations are never strictly in +place. Even in Canada the severity of the winter is often broken by a +spell of warmer weather with a rain, perhaps, in the dead of winter. In +the United States a winter without some break in each of the months would +be a most unusual occurrence. So that it is quite reasonable to expect the +"January thaw" any time from Christmas until the middle of February. + +"A late spring never deceives," unless it is so very late, like the +phenomenal spring of 1907, that the jump is made, perforce, into summer. +That is a cruel deception. What is meant of course is that if the freezing +weather continues consistently, well past the average, the likelihood of +frost-damage to fruit is slight. There is nothing much worse than for the +blossoms to be forced by a period of warm weather early, for there is only +a slim chance that it will continue past the danger limit. It is +surprising how late frost may occur,--the last date for killing frost in +Pennsylvania is about May 10th on the _average_, which makes it possible +till June. + +"The first robins indicate the approach of spring." But certainly not its +arrival. + +"If the moon rises clear expect fair weather." Right; because if it is +summer even the eastern horizon would show the humidity necessary enough +to cause a thunderstorm, and in winter the cirrus clouds give several +hours' warning. But, again, the wind is the chief factor to be considered. + +Proverbs, representing variations of the truth, could be given about every +manifestation of the skies as well as about things that were never +manifest except in the imagination, for every country has contributed to +the volume of weather-lore. But, unfortunately, neither age nor amount of +repetition are as good as the truth and they should be discarded if they +are false. The way to discard is not to repeat. + +The man who desires weather-wisdom should seek it with his eyes. His +comparison will be that which he sees with that which he has seen, and he +will soon form all the weather axioms he needs for himself. The local +Bureau or the Bureau at Washington will answer all his inquiries, +cheerfully, promptly, and free of charge. Of course there are things that +the Bureau wants to know itself. It is very curious about the higher +strata of air. Small balloons have carried very light instruments to an +altitude of fifteen miles and brought considerable knowledge to earth, +but each bit makes more knowledge imperative. + +The cry of "last frontier" hurts the adventurous, the exploring, the +woods-loving as no other cry has power to hurt. With the Poles gone and +Alaska in harness we are inclined to think that it is all over. We resign +ourselves to our trammelling globe,--as the gold-fish do,--forgetting. But +there is plenty of interest left. The birds must be brought back. Forests +must be made and patrolled, and the air-ocean is still unknown. That, at +any rate, has remained unspoiled by man. + +The seas have been charted and the mountains have been disemboweled, but +the atmosphere is unconquered. More must be known. Squadrons of aëroplanes +cannot ride out the gale until their pilots know all about the gale. Until +that time there need be no cry of last frontier, for until that time the +weather will continue to be our overlord, whose dominions are flaunted +before the watcher on the porch and the runner on the trail. + + +CONDENSATIONS + +Look for continued fair weather when: + +A gentle wind blows from the west, northwest, or a little south of west. + +The sun sets in a cloudless sky. + +The sunset is composed of light tints, inclining to red or yellow. + +The sunset is followed by a glowing and slow-fading western sky. + +The sun sets like a ball of fire (warmer). + +The sun rises out of a gray sky. + +The clouds are noticeably high for the season. + +The clouds rise on the mountains. + +The clouds have frequent breaks showing blue sky between. + +The puffy cumulus clouds show a lot of white. + +The cumulus clouds decrease toward nightfall. + +The winter sky is mottled with a northwest wind. + +The summer morning fog breaks before ten o'clock. + +The dawn is low. + +The blue sky has a tendency to show green near the northern horizon +(colder). + +The sun breaks through a departing thunderstorm and makes a rainbow. + +Snow-flurries drift down a north wind (colder). + +Cirrus clouds, or others, dissolve, or cirrus have tails down. + +Spiders spin on the grass. + +There is a moderate dew or frost. + +The temperature is normal or colder than normal, other signs being right. + +The sky is sown with stars. + +The moon rises clear. + +The wind blows down mountain ravines after nightfall. + +The salt is dry, smoke ascends, birds fly high, and animals act normally. + +The barometer rises slowly, or is steady at or above 30.00. + +No change need be feared as the anticyclone nears, or for three days after +clear conditions are established so long as the wind remains brisk from +some westerly quarter. The direction of the wind, the kind of cloud, and +the temperature changes are the factors to watch if you have no barometer. + + * * * * * + +Look for a change toward storms when: + +The west wind suddenly drops. + +The west wind shifts to south or northeast. + +The cirrus clouds appear in well-organized lines. + +The cirrus clouds merge into cirro-stratus. + +The sky looks like fish scales, so-called mackerel sky. + +Light scud drifts across the sky from east to west. + +The summer cumulus clouds increase in size as the afternoon proceeds. + +Walls grow damp, flies are more of a burden than usual, swallows fly low. + +Smoke falls to the ground. + +There have been three white frosts. + +A halo appears around either the moon or sun. + +When sun-dogs appear about the sun, denoting ice-particles in the air. + +The summer morning is sultry and the wind variable. + +The temperature is much above the normal. + +Few stars are visible and those are indistinct. The clouds gather about +the mountain tops, or drop down the mountain-sides. + +The wind continues to blow up ravines after nightfall. + +The sunset is a dull gray, or the sun sets into a livid cloudbank. + +The sunrise is a fiery red, and the dawn is high. + +The sun gradually is smothered in fine-textured clouds and the wind +shifts. + +The temperature does not fall at night. + +The signs most to be heeded are the shift of wind to a point east of +north or south, the gradual filming of the sky with cirrus and +cirro-stratus, and the increase of temperature. Of course, the barometer +is the best indicator of all. + + * * * * * + +Look for a change toward clearing when: + +The wind shifts from the easterly quarter into the west. + +The temperature falls rapidly. + +The clouds rise, or break, or lighten perceptibly in color. + +Patches of blue sky appear through the rifts in the clouds, wind north. + +Raindrops grow smaller after the windshift. + +Snowflakes drive less busily, float lazily down, or thin out +conspicuously. + +Seams appear in the clouds, snow will cease and rain probably. + +The thunder and lightning occur only in the eastern quarter. + +Permanent clearing will not be effected until the change of the wind to +the points on the western half of the compass show that the cyclone has +definitely passed to the north or south or over the locality. In winter +the cloud covering may move off slowly, but there will be little +precipitation after the wind has reached north or west. The bank of +cirro-stratus gets thinner and the moon or the sun gradually shines +through. In summer clearing is much more abrupt, as is the clouding up. +The ability to sense accurately the moment when the weights are shifted +and the change to clearing commences takes some observation to acquire, +but the advantage is worth it. + + * * * * * + +Rain (or snow) will fall: + +Within five minutes after the arch of the thundercloud is seen to move +toward one. + +Within five minutes when the curtain of falling drops obscures the +landscape to the west of one. + +Within a few minutes after the bottoms of cumulus clouds turn from black +to gray, letting down visible trailing showers. + +Within a short while after the winter sky has become uniform in color. + +Within an hour after the pavement-like, but scarcely discernible, +thundercloud consolidates along the west, if the wind is from the +southwest. If the wind is from the southeast this cloud may take four +hours to rise. + +From two to eight hours after the sun or moon has vanished behind the +cirro-stratus. + +From eight to forty-eight hours after the first cirrus is seen, depending +upon the distance from the sea and the time of year. + +Every little while from southwest showers in the passing of a summer low. + +For about eight to twelve hours continuously in a winter storm, and +intermittently until the wind swings west. + +For a very short while from a thunder cloud rising on a west wind. + +For an hour or more from a thundercloud that rises on a southwest or +southeast wind. + + * * * * * + +The temperature will fall when: + +A thunderstorm breaks, continuing low if the wind blows from the west +after clearing. + +Nightfall approaches and the sky is free from clouds. + +The mercury remains at the same level during the sunny hours. + +A cyclone is departing and the anticyclone moving in. + +The wind swings north of east in a storm,--the fall will be gradual. + +The wind swings west of south in a storm,--the fall will be sudden. + +A snowstorm begins, for a short time only. + +A cloudy day clears at sunset. + +Snow flurries are seen. + +The sky shows green and the clouds look hard. + + * * * * * + +The temperature will rise when: + +A thunderstorm is brewing, or a day or two before a winter cyclone. + +After a thunderstorm if another is to follow. + +The morning is free from clouds and if it is not the first day of a cold +wave. + +The wind dips south of west or south of northeast, the former shift +bringing the more sudden rise. + +The sun sets as a ball of fire, at which one can easily look. + +A snowstorm gets under way, unless the wind is swinging toward the north. + + +A PAGE OF PROBLEMS + +One satisfying thing about meteorology is that there is a constantly +widening field for conquest. Among the questions that await solution are: + +What are the relative densities of clouds? + +What is the original atmospheric electricity, its distribution and laws? + +What are the causes and nature of precipitation? + +Will aërial ascents on all sides of an atmospheric disturbance discover +the mechanism of storms? + +What relations are there of solar radiation to our atmosphere? + +What influence do lunar tides bear to our weather? + +On what does the permanence of the summer lows over the Rockies depend? + +These questions are only samples. Many certainties can be attained by +merely complete observations over a longer period of time, others by new +systems of observations that await a more generous appropriation. Even the +upper air investigations on Mt. Weather, Va., have had to be curtailed. +The Bureau's record has proved it efficient, of enormous benefit to the +country, and deserving of the encouragement instead of the depreciation of +every citizen. + + +WHAT THE WEATHER FLAGS MEAN + +In every city the Bureau causes flags to be flown from some prominent +place so that a glance may show shippers and everybody who may be +concerned at the shortest possible notice just what the approaching +weather conditions are. + +A plain white flag means fair weather. + +A black triangle stands for temperature and is always exhibited with some +other flag. Its relative position, either above or below indicates higher +or lower temperature. Therefore white flag with the black below means fair +and colder. The white flag with the black above means fair and warmer. + +A white flag with a black square in the center means a cold wave. + +A blue flag means either rain or snow. + +The blue with the black above would mean rain or snow and warmer. + +The blue with the black below would mean rain or snow and colder. + +A blue and white flag means a local shower. The same meanings are attached +to the black triangle in connection with the blue and white. + +A red triangle indicates a dangerous local storm, is called the +information flag meaning that shippers should apply to the Bureau for news +of the direction in which the storm is travelling. + +A red square with a black center means severe winds. + +1. Southwesterly with a white triangle below. + +2. Northwesterly with a white triangle above. + +3. Northeasterly with a red triangle above. + +4. Southeasterly with a red triangle below. + + +OUR FOUR WORLD'S RECORDS,--AND OTHERS + +Maximum Temperature + + United States, 134 at Greenland Ranch, Cal., July, 1913. + + World, 134 at Greenland Ranch, Cal. + +Minimum Temperature + + United States, -65 at Miles City, Mont., January, 1888. + + World, -98 at Verkhojansk, Siberia. + +Absolute Zero of Space + + -459 degrees Fahrenheit. + +Maximum Annual Precipitation + + United States, 167.29 inches at Glenora, Oreg., in 1896. + + World, 905.1 inches, Cherrapunji, India, 1861. + +Maximum Monthly Precipitation + + United States, 71.5 inches at Helen Mine, Cal., January, 1909. + + World, 366 inches, Cherrapunji, India, July, 1861. + +Maximum 24 Hour Precipitation + + United States, 21 inches at Alexandria, La. + +Minimum Annual Precipitation + + United States, none at Bagdad, Cal., in 1913. (Only 3.93 inches fell + at Bagdad during period 1909 to 1913, inclusive.) + +Maximum Annual Snowfall + + United States, 786 inches at Tamarack, Cal., 1911. + +Maximum Monthly Snowfall + + United States, 390 inches at Tamarack, Cal., January, 1911. + +Maximum Wind Velocity + + United States, 186 miles per hour at Mt. Washington, on Jan. 11, 1878. + (Much higher velocities have undoubtedly occurred in tornadoes, etc., + but have not been susceptible of instrumental measurement.) + + +THE END + + + + +_OUTING PUBLISHING COMPANY--NEW YORK_ + +OUTING HANDBOOKS + +_The textbooks for outdoor work and play_ + +¶ Each book deals with a separate subject and deals with it thoroughly. If +you want to know anything about Airedales an OUTING HANDBOOK gives you all +you want. If it's Apple Growing, another OUTING HANDBOOK meets your need. +The Fisherman, the Camper, the Poultry-raiser, the Automobilist, the +Horseman, all varieties of out-door enthusiasts, will find separate +volumes for their separate interests. There is no waste space. + +¶ The series is based on the plan of one subject to a book and each book +complete. The authors are experts. Each book has been specially prepared +for this series and all are published in uniform style, flexible cloth +binding. + +¶ Two hundred titles are projected. The series covers all phases of +outdoor life, from bee-keeping to big-game shooting. Among the books now +ready or in preparation are those described on the following pages. + +PRICE SEVENTY CENTS PER VOL. NET, POSTAGE 5c. EXTRA + +THE NUMBERS MAKE ORDERING EASY. + + +1. EXERCISE AND HEALTH, by Dr. Woods Hutchinson. Dr. Hutchinson takes the +common-sense view that the greatest problem in exercise for most of us is +to get enough of the right kind. The greatest error in exercise is not to +take enough, and the greatest danger in athletics is in giving them up. He +writes in a direct matter-of-fact manner with an avoidance of medical +terms, and a strong emphasis on the rational, all-round manner of living +that is best calculated to bring a man to a ripe old age with little +illness or consciousness of bodily weakness. + +[Illustration] + +2. CAMP COOKERY, by Horace Kephart. "The less a man carries in his pack +the more he must carry in his head," says Mr. Kephart. This book tells +what a man should carry in both pack and head. Every step is traced--the +selection of provisions and utensils, with the kind and quantity of each, +the preparation of game, the building of fires, the cooking of every +conceivable kind of food that the camp outfit or woods, fields or streams +may provide--even to the making of desserts. Every recipe is the result of +hard practice and long experience. + +[Illustration] + +3. BACKWOODS SURGERY AND MEDICINE, by Charles S. Moody, M. D. A handy book +for the prudent lover of the woods who doesn't expect to be ill but +believes in being on the safe side. Common-sense methods for the treatment +of the ordinary wounds and accidents are described--setting a broken limb, +reducing a dislocation, caring for burns, cuts, etc. Practical remedies +for camp diseases are recommended, as well as the ordinary indications of +the most probable ailments. Includes a list of the necessary medical and +surgical supplies. + +4. APPLE GROWING, by M. C. Burritt. The various problems confronting the +apple grower, from the preparation of the soil and the planting of the +trees to the marketing of the fruit, are discussed in detail by the +author. Chapter headings are:--The Outlook for the Growing of +Apples--Planning for the Orchard--Planting and Growing the +Orchard--Pruning the Trees--Cultivation and Cover Cropping--Manuring and +Fertilizing--Insects and Diseases Affecting the Apple--The Principles and +Practice of Spraying--Harvesting and Storing--Markets and Marketing--Some +Hints on Renovating Old Orchards--The Cost of Growing Apples. + +5. THE AIREDALE, by Williams Haynes. The book opens with a short chapter +on the origin and development of the Airedale, as a distinctive breed. The +author then takes up the problems of type as bearing on the selection of +the dog, breeding, training and use. The book is designed for the +non-professional dog fancier, who wishes common sense advice which does +not involve elaborate preparations or expenditure. Chapters are included +on the care of the dog in the kennel and simple remedies for ordinary +diseases. + +6. THE AUTOMOBILE.--Its selection, Care and Use, by Robert Sloss. This is +a plain, practical discussion of the things that every man needs to know +if he is to buy the right car and get the most out of it. The various +details of operation and care are given in simple, intelligent terms. From +it the car owner can easily learn the mechanism of his motor and the art +of locating motor trouble, as well as how to use his car for the greatest +pleasure. A chapter is included on building garages. + +7. FISHING KITS AND EQUIPMENT, by Samuel G. Camp. A complete guide to the +angler buying a new outfit. Every detail of the fishing kit of the +freshwater angler is described, from rodtip to creel, and clothing. +Special emphasis is laid on outfitting for fly fishing, but full +instruction is also given to the man who wants to catch pickerel, pike, +muskellunge, lake-trout, bass and other freshwater game fishes. Prices are +quoted for all articles recommended and the approved method of selecting +and testing the various rods, lines, leaders, etc., is described. + +[Illustration] + +8. THE FINE ART OF FISHING, by Samuel G. Camp. Combine the pleasure of +catching fish with the gratification of following the sport in the most +approved manner. The suggestions offered are helpful to beginner and +expert anglers. The range of fish and fishing conditions covered is wide +and includes such subjects as "Casting Fine and Far Off," "Strip-Casting +for Bass," "Fishing for Mountain Trout" and "Autumn Fishing for Lake +Trout." The book is pervaded with a spirit of love for the streamside and +the out-doors generally which the genuine angler will appreciate. A +companion book to "Fishing Kits and Equipment." The advice on outfitting +so capably given in that book is supplemented in this later work by +equally valuable information on how to use the equipment. + +9. THE HORSE--Its Breeding, Care and Use, by David Buffum. Mr. Buffum +takes up the common, every-day problems of the ordinary horse-users, such +as feeding, shoeing, simple home remedies, breaking and the cure for +various equine vices. An important chapter is that tracing the influx of +Arabian blood into the English and American horses and its value and +limitations. Chapters are included on draft-horses, carriage horses, and +the development of the two-minute trotter. It is distinctly a sensible +book for the sensible man who wishes to know how he can improve his horses +and his horsemanship at the same time. + +10. THE MOTOR BOAT--Its Selection, Care and Use, by H. W. Slauson. The +intending purchaser is advised as to the type of motor boat best suited to +his particular needs and how to keep it in running condition after +purchased. The chapter headings are: Kinds and Uses of Motor Boats--When +the Motor Balks--Speeding of the Motor Boat--Getting More Power from a New +Motor--How to Install a Marine Power Plant--Accessories--Covers, Canopies +and Tops--Camping and Cruising--The Boathouse. + +11. OUTDOOR SIGNALLING, by Elbert Wells. Mr. Wells has perfected a method +of signalling by means of wig-wag, light, smoke, or whistle which is as +simple as it is effective. The fundamental principle can be learned in ten +minutes and its application is far easier than that of any other code now +in use. It permits also the use of cipher and can be adapted to almost any +imaginable conditions of weather, light, or topography. + +12. TRACKS AND TRACKING, by Josef Brunner. After twenty years of patient +study and practical experience, Mr. Brunner can, from his intimate +knowledge, speak with authority on this subject. "Tracks and Tracking" +shows how to follow intelligently even the most intricate animal or bird +tracks. It teaches how to interpret tracks of wild game and decipher the +many tell-tale signs of the chase that would otherwise pass unnoticed. It +proves how it is possible to tell from the footprints the name, sex, +speed, direction, whether and how wounded, and many other things about +wild animals and birds. All material has been gathered first hand; the +drawings and half-tones from photographs form an important part of the +work. + +[Illustration] + +13. WING AND TRAP-SHOOTING, by Charles Askins. Contains a full discussion +of the various methods, such as snap-shooting, swing and half-swing, +discusses the flight of birds with reference to the gunner's problem of +lead and range and makes special application of the various points to the +different birds commonly shot in this country. A chapter is included on +trap shooting and the book closes with a forceful and common-sense +presentation of the etiquette of the field. + +14. PROFITABLE BREEDS OF POULTRY, by Arthur S. Wheeler. Mr. Wheeler +discusses from personal experience the best-known general purpose breeds. +Advice is given from the standpoint of the man who desires results in eggs +and stock rather than in specimens for exhibition. In addition to a +careful analysis of stock--good and bad--and some conclusions regarding +housing and management, the author writes in detail regarding Plymouth +Rocks, Wyandottes, Orpingtons, Rhode Island Reds, Mediterraneans and the +Cornish. + +15. RIFLES AND RIFLE SHOOTING, by Charles Askins. A practical manual +describing various makes and mechanisms, in addition to discussing in +detail the range and limitations in the use of the rifle. Treats on the +every style and make of rifle as well as their use. Every type of rifle is +discussed so that the book is complete in every detail. + +16. SPORTING FIREARMS, by Horace Kephart. This book is the result of +painstaking tests and experiments. Practically nothing is taken for +granted. Part I deals with the rifle, and Part II with the shotgun. The +man seeking guidance in the selection and use of small firearms, as well +as the advanced student of the subject, will receive an unusual amount of +assistance from this work. The chapter headings are: Rifles and +Ammunition--The Flight of Bullets--Killing Power--Rifle Mechanism and +Materials--Rifle Sights--Triggers and Stocks--Care of Rifle--Shot Patterns +and Penetration--Gauges and Weights--Mechanism and Build of Shotguns. + +17. THE YACHTSMAN'S HANDBOOK, by Herbert L. Stone. The author and compiler +of this work is the editor of "Yachting." He treats in simple language of +the many problems confronting the amateur sailor and motor boatman. +Handling ground tackle, handling lines, taking soundings, the use of the +lead line, care and use of sails, yachting etiquette, are all given +careful attention. Some light is thrown upon the operation of the gasoline +motor, and suggestions are made for the avoidance of engine troubles. + +18. SCOTTISH AND IRISH TERRIERS, by Williams Haynes. This is a companion +book to "The Airedale," and deals with the history and development of both +breeds. For the owner of the dog, valuable information is given as to the +use of the terriers, their treatment in health, their treatment when sick, +the principles of dog breeding, and dog shows and rules. + +19. NAVIGATION FOR THE AMATEUR, by Capt. E. T. Morton. A short treatise on +the simpler methods of finding position at sea by the observation of the +sun's altitude and the use of the sextant and chronometer. It is arranged +especially for yachtsmen and amateurs who wish to know the simpler +formulae for the necessary navigation involved in taking a boat anywhere +off shore. Illustrated with drawings. Chapter headings: Fundamental +Terms--Time--The Sumner Line--The Day's Work, Equal Altitude, and +Ex-Meridian Sights--Hints on Taking Observations. + +20. OUTDOOR PHOTOGRAPHY, by Julian A. Dimock. A solution of all the +problems in camera work out-of-doors. The various subjects dealt with are: +The Camera--Lens and Plates--Light and Exposure--Development--Prints and +Printing--Composition--Landscapes--Figure Work--Speed Photography--The +Leaping Tarpon--Sea Pictures--In the Good Old Winter Time--Wild Life. + +21. PACKING AND PORTAGING, by Dillon Wallace. Mr. Wallace has brought +together in one volume all the valuable information on the different ways +of making and carrying the different kinds of packs. The ground covered +ranges from man-packing to horse-packing, from the use of the tump line to +throwing the diamond hitch. + +22. THE BULL TERRIER, by Williams Haynes. This is a companion book to "The +Airedale" and "Scottish and Irish Terriers" by the same author. Its +greatest usefulness is as a guide to the dog owner who wishes to be his +own kennel manager. A full account of the development of the breed is +given with a description of best types and standards. Recommendations for +the care of the dog in health or sickness are included. The chapter heads +cover such matters as:--The Bull Terrier's History--Training the Bull +Terrier--The Terrier in Health--Kenneling--Diseases. + +[Illustration] + +23. THE FOX TERRIER, by Williams Haynes. As in his other books on the +terrier, Mr. Haynes takes up the origin and history of the breed, its +types and standards, and the more exclusive representatives down to the +present time. Training the Fox Terrier--His Care and Kenneling in Sickness +and Health--and the Various Uses to Which He Can Be Put--are among the +phases handled. + +24. SUBURBAN GARDENS, by Grace Tabor. Illustrated with diagrams. The +author regards the house and grounds as a complete unit and shows how the +best results may be obtained by carrying the reader in detail through the +various phases of designing the garden, with the levels and contours +necessary, laying out the walks and paths, planning and placing the +arbors, summer houses, seats, etc., and selecting and placing trees, +shrubs, vines and flowers. Ideal plans for plots of various sizes are +appended, as well as suggestions for correcting mistakes that have been +made through "starting wrong." + +[Illustration] + +25. FISHING WITH FLOATING FLIES, by Samuel G. Camp. This is an art that is +comparatively new in this country although English anglers have used the +dry fly for generations. Mr. Camp has given the matter special study and +is one of the few American anglers who really understands the matter from +the selection of the outfit to the landing of the fish. His book takes up +the process in that order, namely--How to Outfit for Dry Fly Fishing--How, +Where, and When to Cast--The Selection and Use of Floating Flies--Dry Fly +Fishing for Brook, Brown and Rainbow Trout--Hooking, Playing and +Landing--Practical Hints on Dry Fly Fishing. + +26. THE GASOLINE MOTOR, by Harold Whiting Slauson. Deals with the +practical problems of motor operation. The standpoint is that of the man +who wishes to know how and why gasoline generates power and something +about the various types. Describes in detail the different parts of +motors and the faults to which they are liable. Also gives full +directions as to repair and upkeep. Various chapters deal with Types of +Motors--Valves--Bearings--Ignition--Carburetors--Lubrication--Fuel--Two +Cycle Motors. + +27. ICE BOATING, by H. L. Stone. Illustrated with diagrams. Here have been +brought together all the available information on the organization and +history of ice-boating, the building of the various types of ice yachts, +from the small 15 footer to the 600-foot racer, together with detailed +plans and specifications. Full information is also given to meet the needs +of those who wish to be able to build and sail their own boats but are +handicapped by the lack of proper knowledge as to just the points +described in this volume. + +28. MODERN GOLF, by Harold H. Hilton. Mr. Hilton is the only man who has +ever held the amateur championship of Great Britain and the United States +in the same year. In addition to this, he has, for years, been recognized +as one of the most intelligent, steady players of the game in England. +This book is a product of his advanced thought and experience and gives +the reader sound advice, not so much on the mere swinging of the clubs as +in the actual playing of the game, with all the factors that enter into +it. He discusses the use of wooden clubs, the choice of clubs, the art of +approaching, tournament play as a distinct thing in itself, and kindred +subjects. + +29. INTENSIVE FARMING, by L. C. Corbett. A discussion of the meaning, +method and value of intensive methods in agriculture. This book is +designed for the convenience of practical farmers who find themselves +under the necessity of making a living out of high-priced land. + +30. PRACTICAL DOG BREEDING, by Williams Haynes. This is a companion volume +to PRACTICAL DOG KEEPING, described below. It goes at length into the +fundamental questions of breeding, such as selection of types on both +sides, the perpetuation of desirable, and the elimination of undesirable, +qualities, the value of prepotency in building up a desired breed, etc. +The arguments are illustrated with instances of what has been +accomplished, both good and bad, in the case of well-known breeds. + +31. PRACTICAL DOG KEEPING, by Williams Haynes. Mr. Haynes is well known to +the readers of the OUTING HANDBOOKS as the author of books on the +terriers. His new book is somewhat more ambitious in that it carries him +into the general field of selection of breeds, the buying and selling of +dogs, the care of dogs in kennels, handling in bench shows and field +trials, and at considerable length into such subjects as food and feeding, +exercise and grooming, disease, etc. + +[Illustration] + +32. THE VEGETABLE GARDEN, by R. L. Watts. This book is designed for the +small grower with a limited plot of ground. The reader is told what types +of vegetables to select, the manner of planting and cultivation, and the +returns that may be expected. + +33. AMATEUR RODMAKING, by Perry D. Frazer. Illustrated. A practical manual +for all those who want to make their own rod and fittings. It contains a +review of fishing rod history, a discussion of materials, a list of the +tools needed, description of the method to be followed in making all kinds +of rods, including fly-casting, bait-fishing, salmon, etc., with full +instructions for winding, varnishing, etc. + +34. PISTOL AND REVOLVER SHOOTING, by A. L. A. Himmelwright. A new and +revised edition of a work that has already achieved prominence as an +accepted authority on the use of the hand gun. Full instructions are given +in the use of both revolver and target pistol, including shooting +position, grip, position of arm, etc. The book is thoroughly illustrated +with diagrams and photographs and includes the rules of the United States +Revolver Association and a list of the records made both here and abroad. + +35. PIGEON RAISING, by Alice MacLeod. This is a book for both fancier and +market breeder. Full descriptions are given of the construction of houses, +the care of the birds, preparation for market, and shipment. Descriptions +of the various breeds with their markings and characteristics are given. +Illustrated with photographs and diagrams. + +36. FISHING TACKLE, by Perry D. Frazer. Illustrated. The subtitle is +descriptive. "Hints for Beginners in the Selection, Care, and Use of Rods, +Reels, Lines, etc." It tells all the fisherman needs to know about making +and overhauling his tackle during the closed season and gives full +instructions for tournament casting and fly-casting. Chapters are included +on cases and holders for the care of tackle when not in use. + +37. AUTOMOBILE OPERATION, by A. L. Brennan, Jr. Illustrated. Tells the +plain truth about the little things that every motorist wants to know +about his own car. Do you want to cure ignition troubles? Overhaul and +adjust your carbureter? Keep your transmission in order? Get the maximum +wear out of your tires? Do any other of the hundred and one things that +are necessary for the greatest use and enjoyment of your car? Then you +will find this book useful. + +38. THE FOX HOUND, by Roger D. Williams. Author of "Horse and Hound". +Illustrated. The author is the foremost authority on fox hunting and +foxhounds in America. For years he has kept the foxhound studbook, and is +the final source of information on all disputed points relating to this +breed. His book discusses types, methods of training, kenneling, diseases +and all the other practical points relating to the use and care of the +hound. An appendix is added containing the rules and regulations of hound +field trials. + +39. SALT WATER GAME FISHING, by Charles F. Holder. Mr. Holder covers the +whole field of his subject devoting a chapter each to such fish as the +tuna, the tarpon, amberjack, the sail fish, the yellow-tail, the king +fish, the barracuda, the sea bass and the small game fishes of Florida, +Porto Rico, the Pacific Coast, Hawaii, and the Philippines. The habits and +habitats of the fish are described, together with the methods and tackle +for taking them. The book concludes with an account of the development and +rules of the American Sea Angling Clubs. Illustrated. + +40. WINTER CAMPING, by Warwick S. Carpenter. A book that meets the +increasing interest in outdoor life in the cold weather. Mr. Carpenter +discusses such subjects as shelter equipment, clothing, food, snowshoeing, +skiing, and winter hunting, wild life in winter woods, care of frost bite, +etc. It is based on much actual experience in winter camping and is fully +illustrated with working photographs. + +41. WOODCRAFT FOR WOMEN, by Mrs. Kathrene Gedney Pinkerton. The author has +spent several years in the Canadian woods and is thoroughly familiar with +the subject from both the masculine and feminine point of view. She gives +sound tips on clothing, camping outfit, food supplies, and methods, by +which the woman may adjust herself to the outdoor environment. + +42. SMALL BOAT BUILDING, by H. W. Patterson. Illustrated with diagrams and +plans. A working manual for the man who wants to be his own designer and +builder. Detail descriptions and drawings are given showing the various +stages in the building, and chapters are included on proper materials and +details. + +43. *READING THE WEATHER, by T. Morris Longstreth. The author gives in +detail the various recognized signs for different kinds of weather based +primarily on the material worked out by the Government Weather Bureau, +gives rules by which the character and duration of storms may be +estimated, and gives instructions for sensible use of the barometer. He +also gives useful information as to various weather averages for different +parts of the country, at different times of the year, and furnishes sound +advice for the camper, sportsman, and others who wish to know what they +may expect in the weather line. + +44. BOXING, by D. C. Hutchison. Practical instruction for men who wish to +learn the first steps in the manly art. Mr. Hutchison writes from long +personal experience as an amateur boxer and as a trainer of other +amateurs. His instructions are accompanied with full diagrams showing the +approved blows and guards. He also gives full directions for training for +condition without danger of going stale from overtraining. It is +essentially a book for the amateur who boxes for sport and exercise. + +45. TENNIS TACTICS, by Raymond D. Little. Out of his store of experience +as a successful tennis player, Mr. Little has written this practical guide +for those who wish to know how real tennis is played. He tells the reader +when and how to take the net, discusses the relative merits of the +back-court and volleying game and how their proper balance may be +achieved; analyzes and appraises the twist service, shows the fundamental +necessities of successful doubles play. + +46. *HOW TO PLAY TENNIS, by James Burns. This book gives simple, direct +instruction from the professional standpoint on the fundamentals of the +game. It tells the reader how to hold his racket, how to swing it for the +various strokes, how to stand and how to cover the court. These points are +illustrated with photographs and diagrams. The author also illustrates the +course of the ball in the progress of play and points out the positions of +greatest safety and greatest danger. + +47. TAXIDERMY, by Leon L. Pray. Illustrated with diagrams. Being a +practical taxidermist, the author at once goes into the question of +selection of tools and materials for the various stages of skinning, +stuffing and mounting. The subjects whose handling is described are, for +the most part, the every-day ones, such as ordinary birds, small mammals, +etc., although adequate instructions are included for mounting big game +specimens, as well as the preliminary care of skins in hot climates. Full +diagrams accompany the text. + +48. THE CANOE--ITS SELECTION, CARE AND USE, by Robert E. Pinkerton. +Illustrated with photographs. With proper use the canoe is one of the +safest crafts that floats. Mr. Pinkerton tells how that state of safety +may be obtained. He gives full instructions for the selection of the right +canoe for each particular purpose or set of conditions. Then he tells how +it should be used in order to secure the maximum of safety, comfort and +usefulness. His own lesson was learned among the Indians of Canada, where +paddling is a high art, and the use of the canoe almost as much a matter +of course as the wearing of moccasins. + +49. HORSE PACKING, by Charles J. Post. Illustrated with diagrams. This is +a complete description of the hitches, knots, and apparatus used in making +and carrying loads of various kinds on horseback. Its basis is the methods +followed in the West and in the American Army. The diagrams are full and +detailed, giving the various hitches and knots at each of the important +stages so that even the novice can follow and use them. It is the only +book ever published on this subject of which this could be said. Full +description is given of the ideal pack animal, as well as a catalogue of +the diseases and injuries to which such animals are subject. + +51. *LEARNING TO SKATE, by J. F. Verne. The general problem of the art of +skating is taken up from the standpoint of the man or woman who puts on +skates for the first time. Fundamental rules are laid down for learning +the simpler strokes, carrying the reader on through to speed and fancy +skating. Advice is included on the proper skates and clothing. + +52. *TOURING AFOOT, by Dr. C. P. Fordyce. Illustrated. This book is +designed to meet the growing interest in walking trips and covers the +whole field of outfit and method for trips of varying length. Various +standard camping devices are described and outfits are prescribed for all +conditions. It is based on the assumption that the reader will want to +carry on his own back everything that he requires for the trip. + +53. *THE MARINE MOTOR, by Lieut. Frank W. Sterling, U. S. N. Illustrated +with diagrams. This book is the product of a wide experience on the +engineering staff of the United States Navy. It gives careful descriptions +of the various parts of the marine motor, their relation to the whole and +their method of operation; it also describes the commoner troubles and +suggests remedies. The principal types of engines are described in detail +with diagrams. The object is primarily to give the novice a good working +knowledge of his engine, its operation and care. + + + +***END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK READING THE WEATHER*** + + +******* This file should be named 39466-8.txt or 39466-8.zip ******* + + +This and all associated files of various formats will be found in: +http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/3/9/4/6/39466 + + + +Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions +will be renamed. + +Creating the works from public domain print editions means that no +one owns a United States copyright in these works, so the Foundation +(and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United States without +permission and without paying copyright royalties. Special rules, +set forth in the General Terms of Use part of this license, apply to +copying and distributing Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works to +protect the PROJECT GUTENBERG-tm concept and trademark. 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Warren</h1> +<p>This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at <a +href="http://www.gutenberg.org">www.gutenberg.org</a></p> +<p>Title: Reading the Weather</p> +<p>Author: Thomas Morris Longstreth</p> +<p>Release Date: April 17, 2012 [eBook #39466]</p> +<p>Language: English</p> +<p>Character set encoding: ISO-8859-1</p> +<p>***START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK READING THE WEATHER***</p> +<p> </p> +<h4>E-text prepared by the Online Distributed Proofreading Team<br /> + (<a href="http://www.pgdp.net">http://www.pgdp.net</a>)<br /> + from page images generously made available by<br /> + Internet Archive<br /> + (<a href="http://archive.org">http://archive.org</a>)</h4> +<p> </p> +<table border="0" style="background-color: #ccccff;margin: 0 auto;" cellpadding="10"> + <tr> + <td valign="top"> + Note: + </td> + <td> + Images of the original pages are available through + Internet Archive. See + <a href="http://archive.org/details/readingweather00longrich"> + http://archive.org/details/readingweather00longrich</a> + </td> + </tr> +</table> +<p> </p> +<hr class="full" /> +<p> </p> + +<div class="figcenter"><img src="images/cover.jpg" alt="" /></div> + +<p> </p><p> </p><p> </p> +<h1><small>READING THE WEATHER</small></h1> + +<p> </p><p> <a name="frontis" id="frontis"></a></p><p> </p> +<div class="bbox" style="width: 302px; height: 500px;"><img src="images/frontis.jpg" alt="" /></div> +<p class="center">SHOWER BEHIND VALLEY FORGE</p> +<p class="center"><i>Courtesy of Richard F. Warren</i></p> + + +<p> </p><p> </p> +<p class="center"><span class="giant">READING THE<br />WEATHER</span></p> +<p> </p> +<p class="center"><small>BY</small><br /> +<span class="huge">T. MORRIS LONGSTRETH</span></p> +<p> </p> +<p class="center">ILLUSTRATED WITH PHOTOGRAPHS<br /> +By <span class="large">RICHARD F. WARREN</span></p> +<p> </p> +<div class="figcenter"><img src="images/printer.jpg" alt="OUTING HANDBOOKS" /></div> +<p> </p> +<p class="center"><i>Number 43</i></p> +<p> </p> +<div class="figcenter"><img src="images/printer_b.jpg" alt="" /></div> +<p> </p> +<p class="center">NEW YORK<br /> +OUTING PUBLISHING COMPANY<br /> +MCMXV</p> + + +<p> </p><p> </p> +<p class="center">Copyright, 1915, by<br /> +OUTING PUBLISHING COMPANY</p> +<p class="center"><i>All rights reserved.</i></p> + + +<p> </p><p> </p> +<p class="center">DEDICATED<br /> +with love, to my grandmother<br /> +MARY GIBSON HALDEMAN<br /> +herself responsible for so<br /> +much sunshine.</p> + + + +<p> </p><p> </p> +<hr style="width: 50%;" /> +<p class="title">CONTENTS</p> + +<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" summary="table"> +<tr><td><small>CHAPTER</small></td> + <td> </td> + <td><small>PAGE</small></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td><span class="smcap">Forecast</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_i">i</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td></tr> +<tr><td align="right"><a href="#CHAPTER_I">I</a> </td> + <td><span class="smcap">Our Well-Ordered Atmosphere</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_11">11</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td></tr> +<tr><td align="right"><a href="#CHAPTER_II">II</a> </td> + <td><span class="smcap">The Clear Day</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_20">20</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td></tr> +<tr><td align="right"><a href="#CHAPTER_III">III</a> </td> + <td><span class="smcap">The Storm Cycle</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_42">42</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td></tr> +<tr><td align="right"><a href="#CHAPTER_IV">IV</a> </td> + <td><span class="smcap">Sky Signs for Campers</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_64">64</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">The Clouds</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_65">65</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">The Winds</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_76">76</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">Temperatures</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_86">86</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">Rain and Snow</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_99">99</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">Dew and Frost</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_112">112</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">The Thunderstorm Exposed</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_116">116</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">The Tornado</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_129">129</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">The Hurricane</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_133">133</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">The Cloudburst</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_139">139</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">The Halo</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_140">140</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td></tr> +<tr><td align="right"><a href="#CHAPTER_V">V</a> </td> + <td><span class="smcap">The Barometer</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_147">147</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td></tr> +<tr><td align="right"><a href="#CHAPTER_VI">VI</a> </td> + <td><span class="smcap">The Seasons</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_157">157</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td></tr> +<tr><td align="right"><a href="#CHAPTER_VII">VII</a> </td> + <td><span class="smcap">The Weather Bureau</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_167">167</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td></tr> +<tr><td align="right"><a href="#CHAPTER_VIII">VIII</a> </td> + <td><span class="smcap">A Chapter of Explosions</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_175">175</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">Condensations</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_185">185</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">Signs of Fair Weather</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_185">185</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">Signs of Coming Storm</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_187">187</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">Signs of Clearing</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_189">189</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">When Will It Rain?</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_190">190</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">Signs of Temperature Change</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_191">191</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">Some Unsolved Weather Problems</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_192">192</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">What the Weather Flags Mean</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_193">193</a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td class="dent"><span class="smcap">Our Four World’s Records,—and Others</span></td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_195">195</a></td></tr></table> + + + +<p> </p><p> </p> +<hr style="width: 50%;" /> +<p class="title">ILLUSTRATIONS</p> + +<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="5" summary="table"> +<tr><td>Shower Behind Valley Forge</td> + <td align="right"><a href="#frontis"><i>Frontispiece</i></a></td></tr> +<tr><td> </td> + <td align="right"><small>PAGE</small></td></tr> +<tr><td>Cirrus Deepening to Cirro-Stratus</td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_16">16</a></td></tr> +<tr><td>Cirro Stratus with Cirro-Cumulus Beneath</td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_32">32</a></td></tr> +<tr><td>Cirro-Cumulus to Alto-Stratus</td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_48">48</a></td></tr> +<tr><td>Alto-Stratus</td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_81">80</a></td></tr> +<tr><td>Cumulus</td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_97">96</a></td></tr> +<tr><td>Stratus</td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_128">128</a></td></tr> +<tr><td>Nimbus</td> + <td align="right"><a href="#Page_161">160</a></td></tr></table> + + + +<p> </p><p> </p> +<hr style="width: 50%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_i" id="Page_i">[Pg i]</a></span></p> +<h2>FORECAST</h2> + +<p>Science is certainly coming into her own nowadays,—and into everybody +else’s. Every activity of man and most of Nature’s have felt her +quickening hand. Her eye is upon the rest. Drinking is going out because +the drinker is inefficient. The fly is going out because he carries germs. +And for everything that goes out something else comes in that makes people +healthier and more comfortable, and, perhaps, wiser.</p> + +<p>One strange thing about this flood-tide of science is that it overwhelms +the old, buttressed superstitions the easiest of all, once it really sets +about it. For instance, nothing could have been better fortified for +centuries than the fact that night air is injurious and should be shut out +of house. Then, science turned its eye upon night air, found it a little +cooler, a trifle moister, and somewhat cleaner than day air with the +result that we all invite it indoors, now, and even go out to meet it.</p> + +<p>Once interested in the air, science soon began<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_ii" id="Page_ii">[Pg ii]</a></span> to take up that +commonplace but baffling phase of it called the weather. Now, of all +matters under the sun the weather was the deepest intrenched in +superstition and hearsay. From the era of Noah it had been made the +subject of more remarks unrelieved by common sense than any other. It was +at once the commonest topic for conversation and the rarest for thought. +Considering the opportunities for study of the weather this conclusion, we +must admit, is more surprising than complimentary to the human race. But +it is so. The fact that science had to face was this: that the weather had +been and remained a tremendous, dimly-recognized factor in our level of +living. So talk about it all must. And science set about finding some easy +fundamental truths to talk instead of the hereditary gossip about +old-fashioned winters or the usual meaningless conversational coin.</p> + +<p>Two groups of men had always known a good deal about the weather from +experience: the sailor had to know it to save his life, and the farmer had +to cultivate a weather eye along with his early peas. But the ordinary +business man (and wife), the town-dweller, and even the suburbanite knew +so few of the proven facts that the weather from day to day, from hour to +hour, was a continual puzzle to them. The rain not<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_iii" id="Page_iii">[Pg iii]</a></span> only fell upon the +just and unjust but it fell unquestioned, or misunderstood.</p> + +<p>At last Science established some sort of a Weather Bureau in 1870, in our +country, and after this had triumphed over great handicaps, the Government +set it upon its present footing in 1891. An intelligent interest in the +weather was in likelihood of being aroused by maps, pamphlets, frost and +flood warnings that saved dollars and lives. Then suddenly, or almost +suddenly, a new force was felt in every community. It was the call of +outdoors. The new land of woods and lakes was explored. Men learned that +living by bread alone (without air) made a very stuffy existence. Hence +the man in town opened all his windows at night, the suburban majority +planned to build sleeping porches, the youngsters begged to go to camp, +their fathers went hunting and fishing in increasing numbers, and, most +important of all, the fathers’ wives began to accompany them into the +woods.</p> + +<p>Thus, living has been turned inside out,—the very state of things that +old scientist Plato recommended some thirty thousand moons ago. And among +the manifestations of nature the weather is holding its place, important +and even fascinating. For the person who most depends on umbrellas and the +subway in the city needs<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_iv" id="Page_iv">[Pg iv]</a></span> to watch the sky most carefully in the woods. +That old academic question as to whether it be wise or foolish to come in +out of the wet was never settled by the wilderness veteran. The veteran’s +wife settles it very quickly. She considers the cloud. When the commuter +goes camping he rightly likes his comforts. A wet skin is not one of +these. Therefore he studies the feel of the wind.</p> + +<p>And so it comes about that the person who talks about storm centers and +areas of high pressure and cumulus clouds is no longer regarded as +slightly unhinged. Men are eager to learn the laws of the snowstorm and +the cold wave; for, with the knowledge that snow is not poison and cold +not necessarily discomfort, January has been opened up for enjoyments that +July could never give.</p> + +<p>Bookwriting and camping are both explained by the same fact,—a certain +fondness for the thing. I wanted to see the commoner weather pinned down +to facts. The following chapters resulted. They constitute a sort of +Overhead Baedeker, it being their pleasure to show up the sureties of the +sun and rain and to star the weather signs that can be relied upon. For, +after all, even the elements, although unruled, are law-abiding.</p> + + + +<p> </p><p> </p> +<hr style="width: 50%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_11" id="Page_11">[Pg 11]</a></span></p> +<p class="center"><span class="giant">READING THE WEATHER</span></p> + +<p> </p> +<h2><a name="CHAPTER_I" id="CHAPTER_I"></a>CHAPTER I</h2> +<p class="title">OUR WELL-ORDERED ATMOSPHERE</p> + +<p class="dropcap"><span class="caps">If</span> there is anything that has been overlooked more than another it is our +atmosphere. But it absolutely cannot be avoided—in books on the weather. +It deserves a chapter, anyway, because if it were not for the atmosphere +this earth of ours would be a wizened and sterile lump. It would float +uselessly about in the general cosmos like the moon.</p> + +<p>To be sure the earth does not loom very large in the eye of the sun. It +receives a positively trifling fraction of the total output of sunheat. So +negligible is this amount that it would not be worth our mentioning if we +did not owe our existence to it. It is thanks to the atmosphere, however, +that the earth attains this (borrowed) importance. It is thanks to this +thin layer of<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_12" id="Page_12">[Pg 12]</a></span> gases that we are protected from that fraction of sunheat +which, however trifling when compared with the whole, would otherwise be +sufficient to fry us all in a second. Without this gas wrapping we would +all freeze (if still unfried) immediately after sunset. The atmosphere +keeps us in a sort of thermos globe, unmindful of the burning power of the +great star, and of the uncalculated cold of outer space.</p> + +<p>Yet, limitless as it seems to us and inexhaustible, our invaluable +atmosphere is a small thing after all. Half of its total bulk is +compressed into the first three and a half miles upward. Only one +sixty-fourth of it lies above the twenty-one mile limit. Compared with the +thickness of the earth this makes a very thin envelope.</p> + +<p>Light as air, we say, forgetting that this stuff that looks so thin and +inconsequential weighs fifteen pounds to the square inch. We walk around +carrying our fourteen tons gaily enough. The only reason that we don’t +grumble is because the gases press evenly in all directions permeating our +tissues and thereby supporting this crushing burden. A layer of water +thirty-four feet thick weighs just about as much as this air-pack under +which we feel so buoyant. But if these gases get in motion we feel their +pressure. We say the wind is strong to-day.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_13" id="Page_13">[Pg 13]</a></span>As it blows along the surface of the earth this wind is mostly nitrogen, +oxygen, moisture, and dust. The nitrogen occupies nearly eight-tenths of a +given bulk of air, the oxygen two-tenths, and the moisture anything up to +one-twentieth. Five other gases are present in small quantities. The dust +and the water vapor occupy space independently of the rest. As one goes up +mountains the water vapor increases for a couple of thousand feet and then +decreases to the seven mile limit after which it has almost completely +vanished. The lightest gases have been detected as high up as two hundred +miles and scientists think that hydrogen, the lightest of all, may escape +altogether from the restraint of gravity. One strange fact about all of +these gases is that they do not form a separate chemical combination, +although they are thoroughly mixed.</p> + +<p>At first glance the extreme readiness of the atmosphere to carry dust and +bacteria does not seem a point in its favor. In reality it is. Most +bacteria are really allies of the human race. They benefit us by producing +fermentations and disintegrations of soils that prepare them for plant +food. It is a pity that the few disease breeding types of bacteria should +have given the family a bad name. Without bacteria<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_14" id="Page_14">[Pg 14]</a></span> the sheltering +atmosphere would have nothing but desert rock to protect.</p> + +<p>Further, rain is accounted for only by the dust. Of course this sounds +very near the world’s record in absurdities. But it is a half truth at +least, for moisture cannot condense on nothing. Every drop of rain, every +globule of mist must have a nucleus. Consequently each wind that blows, +each volcano that erupts is laying up dust for a rainy day. Apparently the +atmosphere is empty. Actually it is full enough of dust-nuclei to outfit a +fullgrown fog if the dewpoint should be favorable. If there were no dust +in the air all shadows would be intensest black, the sunlight blinding.</p> + +<p>But the dust particles fulfill their greatest mission as heat +collectors,—they and the particles of water vapor which have embraced +them. It is in reality owing to these water globules and not to the +atmosphere that supports them that we are enabled to live in such +comfortable temperatures. For the air strata above seven miles where the +tides of oxygen and nitrogen have rid themselves of water and dust absorb +very little of the solar radiation. The heat is grabbed by the lowest +layer of air as it goes by. The air snatches it both going and coming. The +little particles get about half of it on the way down<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_15" id="Page_15">[Pg 15]</a></span> and when it is +radiated back very little escapes them.</p> + +<p>So it comes about that the heavy moist air near the earth is the warmest +of all. It would, of course, get very warm if, as it collected its heat, +it didn’t have a tendency to rise. As it rises, moreover, it must fight +gravity, that arch enemy of all rising things. And as it fights it loses +energy, which is heat. So high altitudes and low temperatures are found +together for these two reasons. But after the limit of moisture content +has been reached the temperature gets no lower according to reliable +investigations. Instead a monotony of 459° below zero eternally +prevails—459° is called the absolute zero of space.</p> + +<p>The vertical heating arrangements of the atmosphere appear somewhat +irregular. But horizontally it is in a much worse way. The surface of the +globe is three quarters water and one quarter land and irregularly +arranged at that. The shiny water surfaces reflect a good deal of the heat +which they receive, they use up the heat in evaporation and what they do +absorb penetrates far. The land surfaces, on the contrary, absorb most of +the heat received, but it does not penetrate to any depth. As a +consequence of these differences land warms up about<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_16" id="Page_16">[Pg 16]</a></span> four times as +quickly as water and cools off about four times as fast. Therefore the +temperature of air over continents is liable to much more rapid and +extreme changes than the air over the oceans.</p> + +<p>The disparity of temperature is also rendered much greater because of +differing areas of cloud and clear skies, because of interfering mountain +masses, because of the change from day to night, or the constant progress +of the seasons. At first blush it seems remarkable that the atmosphere +should not be hopelessly unsettled in its habits, that there should belong +to it any hint of system. As a matter of fact, in the main its courses are +as well-ordered as the sun’s. Cause and not caprice are at the bottom of +the wind’s listings. Its one desire is rest.</p> + +<p> </p> +<div class="bbox" style="width: 600px; height: 343px;"><img src="images/img01.jpg" alt="" /></div> +<p class="center">CIRRUS DEEPENING TO CIRRO-STRATUS</p> +<p class="center"><i>Courtesy of Richard F. Warren</i></p> + +<p class="note">Cirrus clouds first appear as feathery lines converging toward one or two +points on the horizon, often merging into bands of darker clouds, arranged +horizontally. A sky like this appears when there is little wind. If the +wind shifts to an easterly direction by way of north there will likely be +snow within 24 hours; if it works around by way of the southwest and south +36 hours will probably pass before rain. If the mares’ tails, as here, are +absent and yet the stratified clouds are present there is little +likelihood of a storm. Cirrus clouds precede every disturbance of +magnitude. Sometimes they are hidden by a lower cloud layer.</p> +<p> </p> + +<p>But rest it rarely succeeds in finding. Forever warming, rising, cooling, +falling, it rushes about to regain its equilibrium. With so many opposing +forces at work the calm day is the real marvel, our weeks of Indian Summer +the ranking miracle of our climate. The very evolution of the myriad +patches of air quilted over the earth with their different opportunities +to become heated, to cool their heels, precludes stability in our so +called Temperate Zone. But over great stretches of the earth’s surface +<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_17" id="Page_17">[Pg 17]</a></span>conditions are continuous enough to discipline the atmosphere into +strict routine. Conjure the globe before your eyes and you will find the +scheme of atmospheric circulation something like this:</p> + +<p>A broad band of heated air perpetually rises from the sweltering +equatorial belt of lands and seas. The supply never ceases, the warming +process goes on night and day, and to a great height the light warm +incense mounts. Then, cooling, from this altitude it begins to run down +hill toward the poles. This is happening all the way around the globe. So +naturally the common centers, the poles, cannot accommodate all this +downrush of air. Therefore as it approaches the goal it falls into a +majestic file about the center, very much as water does in running out of +a hole in the center of a circular basin. The nearer north, the cooler +this vast maelstrom grows and the nearer has it sunk to the earth. It +descends circuitously and, by the force arising from the earth’s rotation, +is sheered to the right in the northern hemisphere, to the left in the +southern.</p> + +<p>Watching the water circle out of the basin you will notice the outside +whirl is in no hurry to get to the center. This corresponds to the +easterly trades of commerce, geography, and fiction.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_18" id="Page_18">[Pg 18]</a></span> The direction of the +upper currents flowing back to the poles is from southwest to northeast; +but in our middle zones this becomes almost from west to east, is constant +and is known to the profession as the prevailing westerlies.</p> + +<p>Look up some day when wisps of clouds are floating very high. You will +notice that their port is in the east, mattering not what wind may be +blowing where you are. They are above the petty disturbances of the +shallow surface winds. They follow a Gulf Stream of immeasurable grandeur. +Onward, always onward, they sail, emblems of a great serenity.</p> + +<p>Beneath this vast drift of air, which increases in velocity as it nears +the pole, is an undertow from two to three miles thick. It is the +movements of this undertow that affect our lives. These movements are +influenced by all the changes of temperature and by the configurations of +land. They take the form of whirls. These whirls may be small eddies, +local in effect, or vast cyclones with diameters of fifteen hundred miles. +Small or large they roll along under the Westerlies, translated by +friction, and invariably moving for most of their course in an easterly +direction, like their tractor above. They circle across the United States +every few days. Their courses do not vary a great deal,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_19" id="Page_19">[Pg 19]</a></span> and yet enough to +make each one a matter for conjecture. And all the conjecturing centers +upon the condition of the atmosphere,—the changing atmosphere which is +yet so dependable.</p> + +<p>The weather we are used to, the daily weather that catches us unprepared, +and yet that does not mistreat us all the time is the product of these +little whirls, which are so remotely connected with the grander +atmospheric movements of our planet. Remembering this, we can at last come +back to earth and set about our real business which is to see why certain +kinds of weather come at such uncertain times and how to tell when they +will arrive.</p> + + + +<p> </p><p> </p> +<hr style="width: 50%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_20" id="Page_20">[Pg 20]</a></span></p> +<h2><a name="CHAPTER_II" id="CHAPTER_II"></a>CHAPTER II</h2> +<p class="title">THE CLEAR DAY</p> + +<p class="dropcap"><span class="caps">We</span> owe our fair weather to that department of atmospheric activity called +anticyclone by the weatherman. The anticyclone is an accumulation of air +which has become colder than the air surrounding it. This accumulation +oftener than not has an area near the center where the air is coldest. +About this coldest area the air currents revolve in the direction of a +clock’s hands. And since this cold air is contracted and denser than its +warmer environment it has a perpetual tendency to whirl outward from the +center into this warmer environment.</p> + +<p>One comes to think, therefore, of the anticyclone as a huge pyramid of +cold air moving slowly across the country from west to east and all the +while melting down on all sides, like a plate of ice-cream, into the +surrounding territory. It is such an immense accumulation that often while +its head is reared over Montana the first shivers of its approach are +beginning to be<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_21" id="Page_21">[Pg 21]</a></span> felt in Texas and Pennsylvania. It does not extend +equally far, however, to the north and west of its head, which is really +sometimes where its tail ought to be. That is, a long slope of increasing +pressure and cold will sweep in a gentle gradient from Pennsylvania to +Montana and will then decrease by a very steep gradient to the Pacific +Coast.</p> + +<p>The anticyclone draws its power from the inexhaustible supplies of cold +air from the upper levels. This air is very dry and accounts for the +almost invariably clear skies of the anticyclone.</p> + +<p>In winter when the intensity of all the atmospheric activities is greatly +increased, the anticyclone develops into the cold wave. The rapidly rising +pressure rears its head and rushes along upon the heels of a storm like a +vast tidal wave at sixty miles an hour, tumbling the mercury thirty, +forty, fifty degrees.</p> + +<p>These cold waves first appear in the northwest. They cannot well originate +over either ocean and a high-pressure area building up over the southern +half of the country will not attain the sufficient degree of frigidity to +earn the title, for even cold waves have been standardized by the +Government. But although nearly all the cold waves choose Montana or the +Dakotas as a<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_22" id="Page_22">[Pg 22]</a></span> base, they have at least two definite lines of action. Those +which are born amid the mountains or on the great plains of Montana have a +curious habit of bombarding the Texas coast before starting on their +eastward march. It is not unusual for us to read of zero weather in the +Panhandle and freezing on the Gulf while the mercury may still be standing +as high as fifty in New York City.</p> + +<p>It is this rapid onslaught from Montana to Texas that produces those +notorious blizzards of that section called northers, during which the +cattle used to be frozen on the hoof. The record time for a drive of this +extent is about twelve hours and the normal about twenty-four which gives +scant time for the Weather Bureau to warn the vast interests of the +impending assault. When the cold wave, after following this path, does +swing toward the Atlantic Coast, as most of them do, it has lost interest +and usually produces only seasonably cold weather along the Appalachians.</p> + +<p>Those cold waves that recruit their strength in Canada and enter the +United States through Minnesota or, rarely, this side of the Lakes move +along the border and supply intensely cold weather for a night or two to +New England and the Middle Atlantic States.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_23" id="Page_23">[Pg 23]</a></span>Cold waves almost always follow a storm. The storm, being an area of low +pressure makes a fit receptacle for the surplus of the high pressure, and +since the whole business of the weather is to seek peace and pursue it, +the greater the discrepancies the more violent the pursuit. Consequently +we have the spectacle of a ridge of cold dry air following and trying to +level up a fleeing hollow of warm moist air—but rarely succeeding. This +principle of action and reaction is almost the sole principle of the +weather and is nowhere more clearly demonstrated than in the winter’s +succession of storm and cold wave.</p> + +<p>In summer the anticyclones are not only actually but relatively more +moderate than in winter. But their influence is still the same,—clear +skies, cooler nights, dry, westerly winds. During the year the anticyclone +furnishes us with about sixty per cent. of our weather. The cyclone is +responsible for the remaining forty per cent. The weather depends on the +cyclone for its variety and upon the anticyclone for its reputation. So it +is well to be able to recognize an anticyclone when one appears.</p> + +<p>The first and most reliable symptom of the approach of an anticyclone is +the west wind. This sign is valid the country over, and is one of<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_24" id="Page_24">[Pg 24]</a></span> the +very few signs that hold true for most of the North Temperate Zone. In +summer over our country the west wind comes from the southwest, to be +Irish, and in winter from the northwest. But for nearly all of our +forty-eight states for nearly all of the year the westerly winds are those +that bring us fair days and nights. And it is these crisp, clear days and +cloudless, brilliant nights which we have in mind when we boast to English +friends of our American weather.</p> + +<p>The west wind is so popular because it has a slight downward flowing +tendency. It also blows from land to sea over all America except the +narrow Pacific coast. These downward, outward directions allow it to +gather only enough moisture to keep it from becoming seriously dry. Its +upper sources supply it with ozone. Its density gives it weight and by its +superior weight it prevails. It dries roads faster than a brace of suns +could do it. It is tonic. And curiously enough, although the anticyclone +loads half a ton excess weight upon us we like it. The greater the burden +the more we feel like leaping and shouting. Our good cheer seems to be +ground out of us, like street pianos.</p> + +<p>The reverse holds, too. For when the anticyclone moves off us and the +cyclone hovers over<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_25" id="Page_25">[Pg 25]</a></span> us, removing half a ton of pressure, instead of +feeling relieved we feel depressed, out of spirit. The animals share this +reaction with us. In fact barnyards antedated barometers as forecasters, +because all the domestic creatures, with pigs in particular, evidenced the +disagreeable leniency of the low pressure areas upon their persons.</p> + +<p class="poem">“Grumphie smells the weather<br /> +<span style="margin-left: 1em;">An’ Grumphie smells the wun’</span><br /> +He kens when clouds will gather<br /> +<span style="margin-left: 1em;">An’ smoor the blinkin’ sun.”</span></p> + +<p>The only trouble about this rather extravagant tribute to the pig, +versatile though he is, is that he can tell only a very few hours ahead +about the coming changes and it takes so much more skill to judge what his +actions mean than to read the face of the sky that the science of +meteorology finally comes to supplant barnyardology.</p> + +<p>The coming of the anticyclone is foretold by the shifting of the wind from +any quarter to the west. The course that the center of the anticyclone is +keeping may be watched by the same agency. Since the circulation from the +cone of cold air follows the hour hands of a clock it follows that if the +center is moving north of you the wind, blowing outward from the center, +will work from west to northwest and from northwest to north and slightly +east of north.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_26" id="Page_26">[Pg 26]</a></span>If the wind has shifted into the west on a Wednesday, it will likely be +cold by Wednesday night and colder on Thursday. By Friday morning the wind +will be coming from the north, likely, with the lowest temperature of all. +By Saturday the cold will moderate, the wind will tire and gradually die +to a calm or become weakly variable. The four day supremacy of the +anticyclone will be over. But, mind you, there are a dozen variations of +this routine. I am only suggesting a usual one.</p> + +<p>If after blowing two or three days from the west the wind shifts to the +southwest and south, you may know that the central cold area is passing +south of you and that its intensity will not be great. While these +anticyclones that float down and to the right of their normal path linger +longer, they are never so severely cold, nor, alas, so uniformly clear as +the others. It is a profound law of anticyclones and even more +particularly of cyclones, that if they deviate to the right they weaken, +if they are pushed by an obstacle to the left they increase greatly in +intensity.</p> + +<p>Occasionally the central portion of an anticyclone passes over your +locality. Then the wind will fall. The frost will be keen and the cold +will be notably dry and invigorating. In<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_27" id="Page_27">[Pg 27]</a></span> summer although the sunlight may +be powerfully bright and the heat great, yet the air will have a buoyant +effect, the body a resilience. And the nights will cool swiftly. Soon +after the center passes from the locality a wind will spring up from the +east with rapidly rising temperature and increased humidity.</p> + +<p>The coldest part of the anticyclone is not, as one would suppose, at the +center, but in advance of it; and its authority, like a schoolmaster’s, is +rapidly dissipated after its back is turned upon a place.</p> + +<p>The intensity of an anticyclone is measured by its wind velocity and by +the degree of cold obtaining under its influence. But the greatest cold +occurs rarely in conjunction with the greatest velocity of the wind. The +calms that occur at sunrise enable radiation to take an extra spurt which +pushes the mercury lower by a degree or so than happens when the wind is +blowing. But, windy or calm, the period about sunrise is normally the +coldest of the day, even extending in midwinter for as much as half an +hour after sunrise, so slow are the feeble rays at restoring the balance +of loss and gain of heat.</p> + +<p>The greatest falls occur at the advent of the cold wave, no matter whether +it arrives at ten in the morning or at midnight. If the temperature<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_28" id="Page_28">[Pg 28]</a></span> +starts to decline gradually during the day, a further and decided fall may +be expected at nightfall if the sky is clear. And if the temperature rises +gradually during the night the normal processes are being displaced and a +change from fair to foul is a surety. In summer the hottest time of day is +not at noon, any more than the coldest part of the winter day was at +midnight, for the reason that the sun can pour in its heat faster than the +earth can radiate it, and the hour for the maximum temperature is pushed +as far along toward evening as four or five or even six o’clock.</p> + +<p>The average anticyclone continues its influence for clearness for about +four days. Some, however, hurry the whole thing through in two. Others are +interrupted by a more vigorous cyclone and are put to rout. Others are +held up by an inherent weakness and are forced to mark time over one +locality until strengthened or dissipated. And a few great ones hold sway +over the country for a week. These choose the north-center of the country +in which to locate. There they pile up the cold air until its very weight +causes it to move majestically on. Its skirts sweep the Gulf coast where +they are a bit bedraggled by invading cyclones. It gives the New +Englanders a fortnight of nipping, brisk<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_29" id="Page_29">[Pg 29]</a></span> days and the mercury in +Minnesota and the Dakotas does not emerge above zero. Once, in Montana, +one of these refrigerating systems established the record of sixty-three +degrees below zero. But in Siberia where the immense extent of the land +surface collaborates with a prolonged night, an anticyclone built up an +area of superior chilliness that left a world’s record of ninety-one +below.</p> + +<p>In summer a succession of these highs causes the frequent droughts of +weeks which harass the West and New England. The air becomes so dry that +it parches and then shrivels the green leaves. Any little cyclones that, +under ordinary conditions, would suck in moist air from the Gulf and +relieve the situation with a rain are dried out and frustrated by the +unclouded sun. It requires a cyclone of great depth to overthrow the +supremacy of these summer anticyclones.</p> + +<p>While the anticyclone furnishes fair weather the sky is not necessarily or +even usually free from clouds under its influence. In summer the +evaporation during the long days overloads the air for the time being. +Normally about eleven in the morning little balls and patches of white +clouds dot the blue. These increase in number and size until about three +in the afternoon when they will have grown little black bellies and<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_30" id="Page_30">[Pg 30]</a></span> +fluffy white tops. By five they will have dwindled and by eight entirely +vanished. These heaped clouds, known as cumulus, are a guarantee of a +normal atmosphere and continued fair weather. They mean that currents of +warm, moist air have risen until they have struck a level so cool as to +cause them to condense part of their moisture. This condensation sinks +until it enters a warmer stratum and the cloud is dissipated. The total +movement is a reasonable exchange that preserves the equilibrium of the +air, very much as a person bends one way and then another to maintain his +balance.</p> + +<p>In winter there is not such an opportunity offered and the few clouds that +form because of the daily variation in temperature are flatter and are +called stratus clouds. Sometimes these stratus clouds may cover the sky at +midday, but in thin platings and not leadenly. In winter as in summer they +tend to disappear toward evening. They are often accompanied by an +unpleasant wind, but rarely by the snow flurry which is the “April shower” +of the winter months.</p> + +<p>But when the snow flurry does come there is no better sign for the +woodsman of coming cold; it never fails. The morning will have begun<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_31" id="Page_31">[Pg 31]</a></span> +brilliantly, but soon great summery puffs of cloud form and increase and +darken on their under sides. Their tops are vague and wear a veil. It is +the snow. The reason is simple. The coming anticyclone strikes the upper +air before it hits the earth’s surface. The sudden cold causes rapid +condensation. Hence the flurries. But the anticyclone is an agent of +dryness, hence their short duration. Sometimes the veil of snow does not +reach the earth. Sometimes it blots out everything in a spirited squall. +But it never lasts long, except in the northwest states. And it is +invariably followed by a period of colder weather.</p> + +<p>In summer local evaporation may be so long-continued or so vigorous that +the cumulus clouds cannot hold all their moisture content when cooled. A +shower is the result, usually a trifling one and mostly without thunder. +The great thunderstorms are always in connection with the passing of a +cyclone. The small heat thunderstorms are only the indulgences of a spell +of fair weather. These tiny showers are daily and sometimes hourly +accompaniments of clear weather in the mountains. The air warms rapidly in +the valleys and is speedily cooled on rushing up a mountain side and a +threat and a<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_32" id="Page_32">[Pg 32]</a></span> sprinkle are the result. When a performance of this sort is +going on nobody need fear unpleasant weather of long duration.</p> + +<p>Another pledge of a clear day that does not appear too credible on the +face of it is the morning fog in summer. In winter it is a different +matter. In August and September particularly the rapidly lengthening +nights allow so much heat to evaporate that the surplus moisture in the +air is condensed to the depth of several hundred feet. By ten o’clock the +sun has eaten into this lowest stratum, heated it and yet begins to +decline in power before the balance swings the other way, so that a +cloudless day often follows a fog in those months. About three mornings of +fog, however, are enough to discourage the sun and a rain follows. Of +course this is because the anticyclone with its special properties has +been losing power.</p> + +<p>When these conditions of clear nights with no wind follow the first two or +three windy days of the anticyclone, particularly in autumn and spring, +frost results. In winter the chances that a fog will be dissipated are +rather slim. But if it shows a tendency to rise all may yet be well.</p> + +<p> </p> +<div class="bbox" style="width: 600px; height: 351px;"><img src="images/img02.jpg" alt="" /></div> +<p class="center">CIRRO-STRATUS WITH CIRRO-CUMULUS BENEATH</p> +<p class="center"><i>Courtesy of Richard F. Warren</i></p> + +<p class="note">The fine-spun lines of the cirrus proper drag this veil of whitish cloud +over the sky. The sun sometimes is surrounded by a colored halo due to the +refraction of the light by the ice crystals. But more often it vanishes +behind the veil. The mottled clouds below the veil show that a rather +rapid condensation of the moisture in the air is taking place. This sky is +distinctly threatening, although the direction and force of the wind will +more accurately foretell the severity of the coming storm. With this sky +expect rain or snow within 12 hours.</p> +<p> </p> + +<p>An excellent sign of clear weather is this fact of the morning mist rising +from ravines in the mountains. And even if you haven’t any mountain<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_33" id="Page_33">[Pg 33]</a></span> +ravines at command the altitude of clouds can be observed. It is safer to +have them lessen in number rather than increase, scatter rather than +combine. The higher the clouds the finer the weather. And if the sky +through the rifts is a clear untarnished blue the prospects of settled +weather are much better than with fewer clouds and a milky blue sky +beyond.</p> + +<p>After the direction of the wind and the shapes of the clouds the colors of +the sky are a great help in the reading of the morrow’s promise. And the +best time to read this promise is in the morning or evening when the half +lights emphasize the coloring.</p> + +<p>Soon after the close observation of cloud colors has commenced the amazing +discovery is made that the same color at sunrise means exactly the reverse +of its meaning at sunset.</p> + +<p class="poem">“Sky red in the morning<br /> +<span style="margin-left: 1em;">A sailor’s sure warning,</span><br /> +Sky red at night<br /> +<span style="margin-left: 1em;">A sailor’s delight.”</span></p> + +<p>Christ seized upon this phenomenon to throw confusion into the Pharisees +and Sadducees when they asked that He would show them a sign from Heaven. +As Matthew reports it:—“He answered and said unto them, When it is +evening ye say, It will be fair weather for the sky is red.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_34" id="Page_34">[Pg 34]</a></span> And in the +morning It will be foul weather to-day for the sky is red and lowering. O +ye hypocrites, ye can discern the face of the sky; but ye cannot discern +the signs of the times.”</p> + +<p>The reasons for this contradictory evidence of color are not nearly so +obvious as the fact itself. Taking the scientist’s word for it need not +stretch one’s credulity overmuch if he can be followed step by step. He +says that sunlight is white light, and white is the sublime combination of +every color. If no atmosphere existed about us the light would all come +through, leaving the sky black. The atmosphere, however, which is full of +dust and water particles, breaks up these rays, these white sheaves of +light, into their various colors. The longest vibrations, which are the +red, and the shortest, which are the violet, get by and the rest are +turned back, mixing up into the color which we call our blue sky.</p> + +<p>If the dust and water particles grow so large and numerous as to divert +more of the short rays than usual we get a redder glow than usual. This is +most noticeable when the sun and clouds are near the horizon for the air +through which they appear is nearer the earth and consequently dirtier. If +these water globules mass together so as to reflect all the rays alike the +result is a<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_35" id="Page_35">[Pg 35]</a></span> whitish appearance. That is why a fog bank, composed of tiny +droplets, each reflecting with all its might, can make the sky a dull and +uniform gray.</p> + +<p>As evening approaches the temperature of the normal day lowers. As the +temperature lowers it is the tendency of the moisture in the air to +condense about the little dust particles in the air. And as these +particles increase in size their tendency is to reflect more and more of +the waning rays of light. Therefore if the sky is gray in the evening it +means that the atmosphere already contains a good deal of condensed +moisture. If the cooling should go on through the night, as it normally +would, condensation would continue with rain as the likely result.</p> + +<p>If, on the other hand, after the evening’s cooling has progressed and yet +the colors near the horizon are prevailingly red it means that there is so +little moisture in the atmosphere that the further increase due to the +night’s condensation will not be sufficient to cause rain. Hence the +natural delight of the sailor.</p> + +<p>A gray morning sky implies an atmosphere full of water precisely as an +evening gray does. The difference lies in the ensuing process. By morning +the temperature has reached its lowest point and if this has not been +sufficient to cause<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_36" id="Page_36">[Pg 36]</a></span> cooling to the rainpoint the chance for rain will be +continually lessened by the growing heat of the rising sun. The gray, +therefore, is the normal indication of a clear cool night which has +permitted radiation and therefore condensation to this degree. It is for +this reason that we have the heavy fogs of August and September followed +by cloudless days.</p> + +<p>A red morning sky shows, like the red evening sky, that condensation has +not taken place to any extent. But this is abnormal for a clear night +causes condensation. The red therefore means that a layer of heavy moist +air above the surface levels has prevented the normal radiation. Hence +when the day’s evaporation adds more moisture to that already at the +higher levels the total humidity is likely to increase beyond the dewpoint +with the resultant rain.</p> + +<p>These two color auguries are among the most reliable of all the weather +signs. Unfortunately the sunrises are scarcely ever on hand to be examined +except by milkmen. But a careful scrutiny of the sunset will make one +proficient in shades. In summer when the sun burns round and clear-cut and +red on the rim of the horizon the air contains much dust and smoke, the +accompaniment of dry weather. And as dry weather has a way of perpetuating +itself such a<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_37" id="Page_37">[Pg 37]</a></span> sun makes dry and continued weather a safe prophecy. In +winter the same red and flaming sun setting brilliant as new minted gold +is a sure indication of clear and cold weather. In all seasons the light +tints of the evening sky mean the atmosphere at its best. A golden sunset, +a light breeze from the west, a glowing horizon as the sun goes down, slow +fading colors all constitute a hundred to one bet for continued fair +weather. The sunset colors that are surely followed by storm will be +discussed in the next chapter.</p> + +<p>The sky is too little regarded. Architects that do not consider the sky +are behind in their calling. Maxfield Parrish has made himself famous by +allying himself with its seas of color. The hunter can read it and learn +whether he may sleep dry without his tent. Only we who shut ourselves +within rooms and behind newspapers forget that there is a sky—until it +falls and we are taken to a sanitarium.</p> + +<p>From the night itself much may be discovered about the continuance of fair +weather. A sky well sown with stars is a good sign. If only a few stars +are visible the clear spell is about over. Stars twinkle because of abrupt +variation in the temperature of the air strata. If the wind is from the +west cold and clear will result no matter<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_38" id="Page_38">[Pg 38]</a></span> how much may twinkle twinkle +little star. But if he twinkle with the wind from the south or east the +cloud will soon fly. That is the way with these weather signs. One sign +does not make a prophecy. It is the combination that has strength and +reliability. Furthermore the eye must be trained by many comparisons.</p> + +<p>Of all the conditions that make night forecasting easy the later evenings +of the moon are the best. The moon furnishes just the proper amount of +illumination to betray the air conditions. If she swims clear and +triumphant well and good. If she rides bright while dark bellying clouds +sweep over her in summer, inconsequential showers may follow. But if she +disappears by faint degrees behind a thin but close knit curtain of cloud +the clear weather is being definitely concluded.</p> + +<p>A great many changes in the weather take place after three in the morning. +Most campers are accustomed to waking anyway once or twice to replenish +the fire, and a glance at the stars will show the sleepiest what changes +are occurring in the eternal panorama. A man may have gone to bed in +security to get up in a snowstorm, whereas a survey of the skies at three +would have noted the coming change. The habit of waking in the dead of +night,—which<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_39" id="Page_39">[Pg 39]</a></span> isn’t really so dead after all,—is not an unpleasant one. +Its compensations are set forth in a beautiful and vivid chapter of +Stewart Edward White’s “The Forest.” Every camper knows them, and this +added mastery that a knowledge of the skies gives him lends a sense of +power, which lasts until the unexpected happens.</p> + +<p>For the unexpected happens to the best regulated of all forecasters, the +Government. Equipped with every instrument and with an army whose business +is nothing else than to hunt down storms and warn the public, the Weather +Bureau is still surprised fifteen times out of a hundred by unforeseeable +changes in atmospheric pressure. It is scarcely likely then that amateurs +without flawless barometers and without reports of the current weather in +three hundred places could hope to foretell with complete accuracy. But +there is a place for the amateur, aside from his own personal +gratification and profit. The Weather Bureau within the limits of the +present appropriation cannot expect to predict for every village and +borough. That the amateur may do and with as great accuracy for the few +hours immediately in advance.</p> + +<p>The Weather Bureau may predict with this large percentage of +accuracy—85%—for forty-eight hours in advance because its scope is<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_40" id="Page_40">[Pg 40]</a></span> +country wide. It may even forecast in a general way for seven days and +still maintain a considerable advantage over almanac guesswork. But the +man who is relying upon local signs is limited to ten or at most twelve +hours. Of course he may guess beyond that but it is only a guess. The work +that the Bureau does and that he may do within his limits is not +guesswork. Meteorology is an exact science, and forecasting is an art. +Both may be studied now in classes under professors with degrees in the +same way that any other science and art may be studied. The old sort of +weather wisdom which was a startling compound of wisdom, superstition, and +inanity has passed away, or is passing away as rational weather talk +spreads.</p> + +<p>These limits of the layman—ten hours with no instruments—are further +defined by his locality. In mountainous country changes come more quickly +than in level localities, in winter than in summer, so that one’s +prophetic time-limit is shortened.</p> + +<p>While the best indications of the clear day are the great fundamental +ones, there are many little signs that bolster up one’s confidence in +one’s own predictions. The lessened humidity coincident with clear weather +is responsible often for many little household prognostics. Salt is dry.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_41" id="Page_41">[Pg 41]</a></span> +The windows (of your summer cottage) do not stick. The children are less +restless. Smoke ascends, or if the wind is blowing is not flattened to the +ground. Flies are merely insects, for the time being, and not the devil. +Swallows and the other birds that eat insects fly high because that is +where the insects are. Spiders do not hesitate to make their webs on the +lawn. They welcome dew but distrust rain. Cow and sheep feed quietly, +rarely calling to one another as they do before a storm. In short the +general aspect of these is normal and therefore remains unnoticed.</p> + +<p>But all these household prognostics may be advertising the most placid +weather while only twelve hours away and coming at sixty miles an hour may +be the severest storm of the season. The Weather Bureau with its maps and +barometers follows its every movement. The man in the woods whose comfort +in summer and whose life in winter may depend upon his preparedness for +the approaching storm does well to read its warnings and know its laws.</p> + + + +<p> </p><p> </p> +<hr style="width: 50%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_42" id="Page_42">[Pg 42]</a></span></p> +<h2><a name="CHAPTER_III" id="CHAPTER_III"></a>CHAPTER III</h2> +<p class="title">THE STORM CYCLE</p> + +<p class="dropcap"><span class="caps">Doubtless</span> those who hope for a Hereafter of unmitigated ease and song, +desire, on this earth, one long, sweet anticyclone. But theirs, in most of +the United States, is disappointment. With an irregularity that seems +perversely regular at times our fair weather is interrupted by a storm +which in turn gives way to some more fair weather or another storm,—there +is no telling which very long in advance. And that is why American weather +ranks high among our speculative interests.</p> + +<p>To emphasize this irregularity a seemingly regular succession of events +may be noticed. It will cloud up, let’s say, on a Sunday, rain on Monday +and Tuesday, clear on Wednesday, staying clear until Sunday when it will +cloud up for the repeat. During this past season it rained on a dozen +washdays in succession. The newspapers grew jocular about it. And very +often one notices two or three rainy Sundays in<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_43" id="Page_43">[Pg 43]</a></span> a row. By actual +observation this year we enjoyed fifteen clear Thursdays in succession in +a normal spring.</p> + +<p>The weather gets into a rut. And if the anticyclones and cyclones were all +of the same intensity it is conceivable that the rainy Sundays might go on +until the Day of Rest was changed by Statute. But the intensities of the +whirls differ. Before long an anticyclone feebler than ordinary is +overtaken by a cyclone and annihilated. Or one stronger than the average +may dominate the situation for several days. Or the great body of cold air +in winter over the interior of Canada may send a succession of moderate +antis across our country making a barrier of dry cold air through which +the lurking cyclone can not push.</p> + +<p>Mostly, however, three days of anticyclonic influence and three days of +cyclonic influence with one day in between for rest, the transition +period, make up a normal week of it. Let the American farmer thank his +stars (and clouds) for that. For no other regions of the earth are so +consistently watered and sunned all the year round as the great expanse of +the North American Continent.</p> + +<p>The cyclone is that activity of the atmosphere which prevents us from +suffering from an eternal<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_44" id="Page_44">[Pg 44]</a></span> drought. The cyclone is an accumulation of air +which has become warmer than the air about it. This area of air usually +has a central portion that is warmest of all. Since warmth expands, this +air grows lighter and rises. Nature, steadfast in her grudge against a +vacuum, causes the surrounding air to rush it. Since these contending +currents cannot all occupy the central area at once they fall into a vast +ascending spiral that spins faster and faster as it approaches the center. +Imagine an inverted whirlpool. It is a replica on a much smaller scale of +the great polar influx, except that the latter has a descending motion.</p> + +<p>The cyclone thus is tails to the anticyclone’s heads, the reverse of the +coin. Where the anti’s air was cool and dry the cyclone’s is warm and +moist. The anti had a downward tendency and a motion, in our hemisphere, +flowing outward from the apex in generous curves in the direction of clock +hands. The cyclone has an upward tendency, flowing inward to the core +contrariwise to clock hands.</p> + +<p>From these two great actions and reactions come all the varieties of our +weather. To understand the procession of the cyclones and anticyclones +across our plateaus, our mountains, our plains, and our eastern highland +is to know why,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_45" id="Page_45">[Pg 45]</a></span> and often when, it will be clear or not. To mentally +visualize the splendid sweep of the elements on their transcontinental run +is to glimpse grandeur in the order of things which will go far to offset +the petty annoyances of fog or sleet. Ignorance may be bliss, but +knowledge is preparedness.</p> + +<p>The anticyclone suggests a pyramid of cold, dry air. The cyclone suggests +a shallow circular tank in leisurely whirl. But all comparisons are +misleading and a caution is needed right here. For a storm is not a +watering cart driven across our united skies by Jupiter Tonans Pluvius. It +is <span class="smcaplc">NOT</span> a receptacle from which rain drips until the supply is exhausted. A +cyclone is a much more delicate operation than that. It is a process. It +can renew itself and become a driving rain storm after it had all the +appearance of being a sucked orange for a thousand miles.</p> + +<p>Suppose that our cyclone, this organization of warm, moist air with its +curving winds, enters the state of Washington on a Wednesday, from the +North Pacific. As early as the Monday afternoon before the wind throughout +all that section of the country would have shifted out of the west and +have started to blow in some easterly direction,—northeast in British +Columbia and<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_46" id="Page_46">[Pg 46]</a></span> southeast in lower Idaho. But since these winds are blowing +from the interior they are dry, and consequently rain does not fall much +before the storm center is near, that is on the Wednesday. If the storm +center passes north of Tacoma the winds, shifting by south and southwest, +bring in the ocean moisture and heavy rain commences which continues until +the rising barometer and westerly winds indicate the approach of another +anticyclone. So much for western Washington.</p> + +<p>As the cyclone passes eastward it mounts the Cascades and its temperature +is lowered, its moisture is squeezed out, and it stalks over Montana, the +mere ghost of its former self, as far as energy and rainfall are +concerned. To be sure it preserves its essential characteristics of +relative warmth, and inwhirling winds. But let it continue. As its +influence begins to be felt over Wisconsin and the Lake region the moister +air is sucked into the whirl and rain, evaporated from Superior, falls on +Minnesota. The east winds are the humid ones now, the west ones the dry. +Eastward the center moves, over Indiana, Ohio, New York, the rainfall +steadily increasing as the ocean reservoirs are tapped.</p> + +<p>The first time you tell a New Englander that his easterly storms come from +the west you are<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_47" id="Page_47">[Pg 47]</a></span> in danger, unless he be a child, for it is to the +children that one may safely appeal. Indeed it is the increasing number of +children who are learning these fundamental weather facts in the public +schools that the Weather Bureau relies upon for a more intelligent support +in the next generation. They teach their parents. These latter find it +difficult to believe, however, that the storms which hurl the fishing +fleets upon the coast in a blinding northeaster have not originated far +out at sea, but have come across the continent. For the safe handling of +boats knowledge of the rotary motion of storms is necessary that one may +be able to tell by the direction of the winds and the way they are +shifting where lies the center of the storm and its greatest intensity.</p> + +<p>In Tacoma when the wind shifted by way of southeast, south, and southwest +that was proof that the storm center was passing north of the city. +Likewise if in New York the winds shift by way of northeast, north, and +northwest the storm center is passing south of that city. As it drifts out +to sea it is gradually dissipated by the changing influences on the North +Atlantic. Very few of our storms ever reach Europe, although some have +been traced to Siberia.</p> + +<p>The Government has put its sleuths on the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_48" id="Page_48">[Pg 48]</a></span> track of every storm that has +crossed the United States in the last thirty years. These weather +detectives with a thousand eyes have made diagrams of their actions, +mapped their courses, computed their speeds, and if we don’t know where +all our discarded storms go to, we at least know where most of them came +from and how they acted when with us.</p> + +<p>About a hundred and ten areas of low-pressure affect the country during +the normal year. Of these all but seven, speaking in averages, come from +the West so that the Boston mechanic who will not believe that the +nor’easter comes via the Mississippi Valley is right about <span style="font-size: 0.8em;"><sup>7</sup></span>⁄<span style="font-size: 0.6em;">110</span> of the +time. But even that small fraction is no exception to the general law, +because those seven storms are not born in Newfoundland but in our East +Gulf States. They come up the Coast, and the wind blows from the northeast +and north into their centers while they are still on the Carolina coast. +The great hurricanes which are cradled in the tropics and march westward +under the influence of the trades are genuine exceptions to the general +westward rule, although they always eventually turn toward the east. They +will be given the prominence they demand later, since the eastbound +schedule must not be sidetracked now.</p> + +<p> </p> +<div class="bbox" style="width: 600px; height: 345px;"><img src="images/img03.jpg" alt="" /></div> +<p class="center">CIRRO-CUMULUS TO ALTO-STRATUS</p> +<p class="center"><i>Courtesy of Richard F. Warren</i></p> + +<p class="note">The wispy edges of the cloud at the brightest part are cirrus, the fleecy +cloud at the extreme top is a thin alto-cumulus, and the dark base of the +sky is stratus. But this stratus is too high for that classification and +so they call it alto-stratus. This sky shows that the temperatures are +moderate, a cold sky being much better packed, and a warm one fluffier. +The fact that a veil of cirrus has not preceded the heavier clouds argues +that the coming storm will not be of much consequence. This sort of cloud +bank arising after a period of cold weather is the best possible +prediction of a thaw. Slight rain might follow within a few hours.</p> +<p> </p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_49" id="Page_49">[Pg 49]</a></span>Three cyclones a year form over the lower Ohio River basin. On account of +their origin over land instead of over water they rarely acquire much +energy. Once in a decade such depressions deepen rapidly. It was one of +these Ohio River storms that increased greatly in energy while moving from +West Virginia to the Jersey Coast that gave Philadelphia her Christmas +Blizzard, a surprise to her citizens and to the Weather Bureau, for most +of the snow fell with the mercury above freezing. The flare-back which +gave Taft his big inaugural snowstorm is another example of the way a +depression may deepen on approaching the coast. Until the upper atmosphere +is as well understood and watched as the lower, or until instruments are +perfected whereby the weather conditions can be made self-announcing such +surprises are absolutely unavoidable. Under conditions that warrant any +suspicion of sudden developments the Bureau at Washington is careful to +order extra observations in the areas likely to be affected, but no +surface observations can quite suffice.</p> + +<p>Fifteen storms a year originate over the west Gulf States, or, drifting in +from the Pacific over Arizona and New Mexico begin to acquire energy in +Texas. Twelve are set up over the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_50" id="Page_50">[Pg 50]</a></span> Colorado mountains. These usually dip +down into Texas before starting their drive toward the northeast. After +both these sets of storms get under way they strike resolutely for the +same locality,—the St. Lawrence Valley. The conformation of the St. +Lawrence region provides an irresistible attraction for American storms. +Occasionally a very strong anticyclone holds that territory and pushes the +cyclone off the coast at Hatteras or even makes them drift across the +country to Florida. But such occasions are exceptional. Give the ordinary +cyclone its head, and, ten to one, you will find it on the way to the St. +Lawrence. The inhabitants will confirm this statement, I am sure. They do +not feel discriminated against in the matter of weather. They get nearly +everything that is going. Since they have to accommodate from seventy to +eighty cyclones in fifty-two weeks they have very little time to brood +over any one variety of weather. With the optimism of that section of the +country they say, “If you don’t like our weather, wait a minute.”</p> + +<p>Ten storms a year originate over the Rocky Mountain Plateau, north of +Colorado. About twenty cross over from the Canadian Provinces of Alberta +and British Columbia. And all our other storms, about forty each year, +enter our<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_51" id="Page_51">[Pg 51]</a></span> country from the North Pacific by way of Washington and Oregon. +Many of these drift across the northern tier of states without any great +display of energy, at least before they reach the Lake region. But the +majority loop down somewhat into the middle west as far south as Kansas, +and then make their turn toward the inevitable St. Lawrence. They usually +require four days to make the trip from coast to coast by this route, as +also by the more direct northern route, because on that they travel more +at leisure. But the storms from Texas, whose energy is greatest because of +greater heat and moisture, occasionally speed from Oklahoma to New York in +thirty-six hours.</p> + +<p>In summer all speeds are reduced. This is because the disparities in +temperature are less. In winter where greater extremes of temperature are +brought into conjunction the processes of the storm are all more violent. +And it is a bit disheartening to know that a storm is aggravated to even +greater endeavors by its own exertions. Its energy provides the conditions +to stimulate greater energy, and, like a fire, it increases as it goes. If +it did not run out of the zone which nourished it and proceed into another +zone where conditions were distinctly<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_52" id="Page_52">[Pg 52]</a></span> discouraging the limits of the +storm would be much extended, and vast territories would be devastated by +the self-propelling combination of wind and water.</p> + +<p>To the generality of us the word storm means rain. To the scientist it +means wind. In reality the cyclone is rare that crosses our country +without causing rain somewhere along its track. The curiosity of the +Weather Bureau to find out the paths of the storm centers is abundantly +justified because it is along these paths that the heaviest rainfall and +the severest winds occur. But whether or not there is precipitation on the +path of the cyclone it is rated as a storm if there is a lowering of +pressure and consequent wind-shift.</p> + +<p>The storm centers are not always well-defined, and quite often the +circulation of the wind about them is not complete. Such cyclones never +amount to much, although there is always the possibility of their closing +in and developing a complete circulation with the attendant increase of +energy. The incomplete cyclones over the desert and plateau regions are +lame affairs, lacking interest and advancing timidly if at all. But once +let them drift into a locality where they can be supplied with moist<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_53" id="Page_53">[Pg 53]</a></span> air, +they pick up energy, keep a definite course, and advance with increasing +speed.</p> + +<p>Very often the center will split up, the circulation perfecting itself +around both centers of depression. One of these will likely be over +Minnesota and the other over Texas and the organization will steam-roller +the states to the east in the manner of a gigantic dumb-bell. This +formation is more likely to have been caused by the two centers appearing +simultaneously than by a split in an original center. The weather reports +call this fashion of storm a trough of low pressure. The southern center +is the one that develops the more energy on its turn to the northeast. If +the two centers should unite on reaching the northeast a very heavy +precipitation is the invariable result.</p> + +<p>All cyclones have much greater length than breadth. They frequently +stretch from unknown latitudes in Canada into unrecorded distances into +the Gulf, while on the other hand it is a very large storm that rains +simultaneously upon the Mississippi and the Atlantic. Behind a cyclone of +pronounced energy a second whirl, called a secondary depression, often +develops, in which case the period of wet weather is prolonged. Also, more +rarely, an<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_54" id="Page_54">[Pg 54]</a></span> offshoot forms ahead of the main depression.</p> + +<p>A sluggish, sulky cyclone either in winter or summer provides more +opportunity to humanity for self-discipline than almost any other feature +of our national environment. In winter when the depression slows up it +settles down upon one community in the guise of fog, and stays by the +locality until an anticyclone blows in and noses it out. Fog is +aggravation, but a hot wave is suffering and the hot wave is caused by a +depression weak in character but generous in dimensions getting held up on +the northern half of our country. By its nature it attracts the air from +all sides, and being in the north, the direction of the wind over most of +the country would be southerly. Air from the west and north has a downward +tendency, but south and east winds are surface currents. Consequently +these winds, blowing over leagues of heated soil, become dry and parching. +If the depression lingers long the entire country to the east, south, and +west soon suffers from superheated air. At last the very intensity of the +heat defeats itself and the reaction to cooler is effected dramatically +through a thunderstorm.</p> + +<p>The well-developed cyclone in winter causes what we all know as a three +days’ rain, although continuous precipitation rarely lasts over ten<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_55" id="Page_55">[Pg 55]</a></span> +hours. The rest of the time is occupied by general cloudiness with +occasional sprinkles and a final downpour as the wind shifts to the west +and the anticyclone nears. In summer the depressions, being shallower, +rarely cause continuous cloudiness for three days, although their +influence often lasts as long as that in the guise of a series of +thunderstorms. The line of storms extends several hundred miles, +bombarding all the towns from Albany to Richmond. These thunderstorms +sometimes achieve in an hour or two even greater results than their winter +relatives can accomplish in three days in the matter of rainfall, wind +velocity, and general destructiveness. Our wettest months are July and +August and not December and January.</p> + +<p>The freedom of the wind has been the subject of much poetic and prosaic +license. As a matter of fact the wind is the veriest slave of all the +elements. It is harried about from cyclone to anticyclone, wound up in +tornadoes, directed hither and thither by changing temperatures. It blows, +not where it listeth, but where it has to. And circuitously at that. For +once the path of duty is not straight. That is another fact that the +Boston mechanic would have been slow to accept,—that the wind blows in +curves. A little consideration, however, of the fact that<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_56" id="Page_56">[Pg 56]</a></span> the wind is +perpetually unwinding in great curves from the anticyclone and winding up +on the cyclone will show that nowhere can it be blowing in a perfectly +straight line.</p> + +<p>Thus it becomes the surest indication that a cyclone is to the west of one +if the wind blows from an easterly point. The storm is bound to move +toward the east, therefore the rapidity with which the clouds move and +thicken will signify when the area of precipitation will reach the +observer. The cycle of the storm is normally this: After a cloudless and +windless night a light air springs up from a little north of east. At the +same time strands of thin wavy clouds appear, very high up. They may be +seen to be moving from the southwest or northwest. Their velocity is +great. Their name is cirrus, and they are called mares’ tails by the +sailors. They are followed by several hours of clear skies, usually; but +if the storm is smaller and close at hand there is no clear interval.</p> + +<p>Before the larger storms these cirrus clouds are sent up as storm signals +twenty-four and even forty-eight hours in advance. The day that intervenes +is very clear, the air feels softer, the temperature is higher. In +midafternoon more cirrus appears, and as condensation <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_57" id="Page_57">[Pg 57]</a></span>follows the quick +cooling the silky lines increase in number. Beneath them a thicker +formation, known as cirro-stratus, forms a dense bank in the west and +southwest. The sun sets in a gray obscurity. If there is a moon it fades +by degrees behind the veil of alto-stratus, and the halo which first was +seen wide enough to enclose several stars narrows until it chokes the moon +in its ever-thickening cocoon of vapor.</p> + +<p>There is no value whatever in the old superstition that the number of +stars within the halo foretells the number of days that it will rain or +snow. The same halo that encloses three stars at eight o’clock may have +narrowed down to one by midnight, or none at all, so that the prophetic +circle is bound in the very nature of its increase to contradict itself. +The presence of a halo is a pretty sure sign of some precipitation within +twenty-four or thirty hours. It fails about thirteen times in a hundred. +If the halo is observed around the sun it is an even surer sign, failing +only seven times the hundred.</p> + +<p>During the time of cloud-increase the wind will probably lull before a +snow, so that the hour or so before precipitation begins is one of intense +brooding calm. Or if there is no calm the wind, now easterly, will be very +gentle. Soon after the precipitation begins the wind will<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_58" id="Page_58">[Pg 58]</a></span> begin to +freshen and will continue to increase in velocity until the center of the +storm is close to the locality. This will require about eight hours for +the average storm. As storms vary an average is a very misleading thing +and the best way to judge of the length and severity of the storm is by +watching the wind. If it increases gradually the storm will be of long +duration. If the wind rises fitfully and swiftly it will not likely be +long but may be severe. If the wind reaches any considerable velocity +before the rain or snow begins the storm is sure to be short and severe.</p> + +<p>The color and formation of the clouds will tell when the precipitation is +about to begin. In summer, no matter how striking and black are the shapes +and shadows of the clouds, rain will not fall until a gray patch, a +uniform veil called nimbus is seen. In the little showers of April this +patch of unicolored cloud is there, as well as behind the great arch of +the onrushing thunderstorm. In winter raindrops are smaller and the +tendency of the clouds is to appear a dull, uniform gray at all times. But +the careful observer can detect a difference between the nature of the +clouds several hours before precipitation and their color immediately +before.</p> + +<p>When snow is about to fall no seams are <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_59" id="Page_59">[Pg 59]</a></span>visible. An impenetrable film +obscures all the joints. From such a sky as this snow is sure to fall. But +if seams are visible, if parts of the skyscape are darker than others, +then, no matter whether the temperature on the ground is below freezing a +rain storm will ensue. Very often these winter rains begin in snow or +sleet, but the clouds register the moment when the change from snow to +rain is to be made. The presence of swift-flying low clouds from the east +is a certain sign that the change to a temperature above freezing has been +effected in the upper strata of the atmosphere. This variety of cloud is +called scud, and accompanies rain and wind rather than foretelling it long +in advance.</p> + +<p>If the storm is approaching from the southwest the precipitation begins +near the coast about twelve hours after the cirrus clouds commence to +thicken and about twenty-four after they were first seen. In some +localities as much as thirty-six and even forty-eight hours are sometimes +required for the east wind to bring the humidity to the dew-point. Just a +little observation will enable one to gauge the ordinary length of time +required to bring things to the rain-pitch in one’s own country. Of course +no two storms in succession make the trip under the same auspices and with +the same speed. The<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_60" id="Page_60">[Pg 60]</a></span> sign of the Universe should be a pendulum. One period +of cyclone, anticyclone, cyclone will traverse the country rapidly. Then +there will be a halt all along the line, and the next +series,—anticyclone, cyclone, anticyclone, will take three days longer to +make the crossing. Otherwise our weather would have a deadening +regularity.</p> + +<p>On an average our storms cross the country at the rate of about six +hundred miles a day. This is the average. Some delay, linger, and wait for +days over one locality. Others do a thousand miles in the twenty-four +hours. They thicken up enough to cause rain from two hundred to six +hundred miles in advance of their centers. It stops raining not long after +the actual center has passed.</p> + +<p>But for picnic purposes the storm is far from being over. For even though +continuous raining has stopped the low pressure still induces a degenerate +sort of precipitation called showers, or oftener mist for another twelve +hours (usually in winter). Then as the cooling influence of the +anticyclone approaches the rain recommences. This time it is not for long, +however, and is followed by permanent clearing, the wind shifting into the +west. Sometimes the change to blue sky is abrupt. But if the subsequent +<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_61" id="Page_61">[Pg 61]</a></span>anticyclone is not very well defined, cloudy conditions may linger for a +couple of days. Such clouds are usually much broken and show white at the +edges and never cause more than a chilly feeling.</p> + +<p>This attempt to outline the customary cycle of the storm,—clear sky, +cirrus cloud, wind-shift to the east, the denser cirro-stratus, the +pavement-like stratus, the woolly nimbus, the first continuous hours of +rain, the misty interval, the windshift to the west, the final shower, and +breaking cloud, the all-blue sky—this storm-schedule is always subject to +change. But the fundamentals are there in disguise every time. They only +have to be looked for and there is some satisfaction in penetrating the +disguise.</p> + +<p>When a storm comes up the Atlantic Coast, as happens a few times a winter, +the process is shortened, because the effects of the larger easterly +quadrants are felt only at sea. The most prominent recent illustration of +this type of storm was the severe snowstorm that swept the coast states +from Carolina to Maine the Saturday before Easter, 1915. Its calendar read +as follows: Friday, 8 <span class="smcaplc">P. M.</span>, cirrus clouds thickening into cirro-stratus. +Midnight, stars faintly visible, wind from northeast, 12 miles an hour. +Sunrise, stratus clouds, wind rising in gusts at<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_62" id="Page_62">[Pg 62]</a></span> Philadelphia to 30 +miles; 8 <span class="smcaplc">A. M.</span>, rapid consolidation of clouds with snow shortly after, +although the temperature at the surface of the earth was as high as seven +degrees above the freezing point. This rapidly dropped to freezing. Flakes +were irregular in size. Until one o’clock in the afternoon the snow +thickened with gusts of wind up to forty miles. Snowfall for five hours +was 14 inches, an unprecedented fall for this locality.</p> + +<p>Then the storm waned for five hours more, 5 inches more of snow falling. +Precipitation practically ceased at 6 <span class="smcaplc">P. M.</span> By sunrise on Sunday the skies +were free of clouds and the wind blew gently from the northwest.</p> + +<p>Occasionally a high pressure area out at sea and beyond the ken of the +Weather Bureau causes one of these coast storms to curve inward to the +surprise of everybody. Occasionally, too, the transcontinental storms are +driven north or south of their accustomed paths. While the divergence may +be slight, it causes a margin of variance from the accuracy of the +Bureau’s report. Then arises a second storm,—one of indignation—from all +the people on one side of the strip who carried umbrellas to no purpose, +and from the others,—who didn’t.</p> + +<p>This pushing aside of the cyclone is caused by<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_63" id="Page_63">[Pg 63]</a></span> pressure variation that +only hourly reports from many localities could detect. Vast hidden +influences shift the weights ever so little and the meteorological express +is wrecked. But this happens, at most, fifteen times in a hundred, and +remembering the unseen agencies to be coped with people are refraining +more and more from the tart criticisms of former times, not in charity but +in justice, although there is small tendency yet to forward eulogies to +the Bureau in recognition of the eighty-five times it is right.</p> + + + +<p> </p><p> </p> +<hr style="width: 50%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_64" id="Page_64">[Pg 64]</a></span></p> +<h2><a name="CHAPTER_IV" id="CHAPTER_IV"></a>CHAPTER IV</h2> +<p class="title">SKY SIGNS FOR CAMPERS</p> + +<p class="dropcap"><span class="caps">The</span> weather-wise, even more so than poets, are born. But that only goes to +say that weather-wisdom can be fathered. For poetry and canoeing and the +art of making fires, once the desire for these things is born, may be +aided infinitely by observation and practice. Nobody can teach a man the +smell of the wind. But the chap who feels nature beating under his heart +can, by taking thought, add anything to his stature. So it is with those +who are called weather-wise. An unconscious desire, a little conscious +knowledge, a good deal of experimentation with the cycle of days, and you +have a weatherman.</p> + +<p>These chapters aim to put the little conscious knowledge into the hands of +the people with the unconscious desire, so that when they take their week +in the woods for the first time (and their month for the second time) they +may enjoy the shifting scenery of the sky-ocean and, incidentally, a dry +skin. For I take it that everybody<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_65" id="Page_65">[Pg 65]</a></span> will soon be camping. Maine and the +Adirondacks have become a family barracks. It is Hudson Bay for bachelors. +And over this expanse of woods and children the weather problem ranks with +the domestic one. For naturally if a soaking would endanger his vacation +the husband must not permit a rain,—unexpectedly. In all seriousness, it +is of avail to know the skies if one is going into the wilds just as it is +of avail to know what severed arteries demand, what woods burn well, and +what mushrooms can be eaten, even though one can get along without knowing +these things until perchance the artery is severed or the arched squall +catches one far from shore.</p> + +<p>At the very least, one grain of weather wisdom prevents a mush of +discomfort. And if, fellow-camper, the following observations gathered on +a thousand thoughtless walks do not tally (for the northeastern states) +with yours, write me, so that in the end we may finally contrive together +a completer handbook of our weather.</p> + + +<p> </p> +<p class="center">THE CLOUDS</p> + +<p>Clouds are signposts on the highway of the winds. Every phase of the +weather, except stark clearness, is commented upon by a cloud<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_66" id="Page_66">[Pg 66]</a></span> of some +sort. When danger is close they thicken. When it passes they disappear. +The aviators of the future will be cloud-wary. He who flies must read or +never fly again.</p> + +<p>The cirrus cloud is always the first to appear in the series that leads up +to the storm. It looks like the tail of Pegasus and for it the old +forecasters in their forecastles made a special proverb.</p> + +<p class="poem">“Mackerel scales and mares’ tails<br /> +Make lofty ships carry low sails.”</p> + +<p>These white plumes and scrolls which are in reality glistening ice-breath, +fly at the height of five, six, seven, and even eight miles. And as a sign +of coming storm they are about as infallible as anything may be in this +erratic world. They were born in the cradle of a storm. The storm center +was breathing warmed air upward to great heights, and although the disc of +the storm itself was only two or three miles deep, its nucleus, +crater-like, shot warm columns twice as far. With just enough moisture +content to make a showing against the blue these streamers flowed to the +eastward. At those dizzy heights the prevailing westerlies are in full +force, blowing from eighty to two hundred miles an hour night after night +and day after day. These westerlies caught the storm exhalations, the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_67" id="Page_67">[Pg 67]</a></span> +streamers, and hurled them eastward at greater speed than the main body of +the storm. And that is the reason that we see these cirrus clouds always +eight, mostly twelve, often twenty-four and sometimes forty-eight hours +before the storm is due.</p> + +<p>Just a few strands of cirrus have little significance. They may be +condensation from a local disturbance, or a back fling from a past storm. +But if the procession of the cirri has some continuity and broadens to the +western horizon it is a sign about eight times in ten that a cyclone is +approaching. Occasionally the storm center is too far to the south or +north to cause rains at your locality, but the cirri bank up on the +horizon and their lacework covers the sky. If they appear to be moving +toward the region of greatest cloudiness it is not a sign of +precipitation. This condition is most apparent at Philadelphia when the +storm center over Alabama or Mississippi floats out to sea by way of +Florida without having the energy to turn north. Then the cirrus is seen +thickly on our southern horizon. Looking closely one sees that the cirri +are moving from the northwest, and are being drawn into the storm area +instead of proceeding in advance of it.</p> + +<p>Careful watching will sometimes enable one<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_68" id="Page_68">[Pg 68]</a></span> to tell whether the tails are +increasing or decreasing in size. If they dissolve it means that the +cyclone from which they were projected is losing strength because of new +conditions. Cloudiness may follow but no precipitation of consequence. The +plumy tails are expressive: pointing upward they mean that the upward +currents are strong and rain will follow; pointing downward they mean that +the cold dry upper currents have the greater weight and clear weather is +likely. In summer the cirrus cloud formations are not such certain advance +agents of rain because all depressions are weaker and less able to +confront a well-intrenched drought. As the proverb goes, “all signs of +rain fail in dry weather,” and there is some truth in it.</p> + +<p>The fine wavy cirrus clouds often increase in number, develop in texture +until the blue sky has become veiled with a muslin-like layer of mist. +This is the cirro-stratus, and is a development of the cirrus, but it does +not fly so high. Its significance is of greater humidity and is the first +real confirmation of the earlier promise of the cirri. Another form that +the cirro stratus may assume is the mackerel sky,—clouds with the light +and shade of the scales of a fish. If this formation is well-defined and +following cirrus it is a fairly accurate storm indicator. It is<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_69" id="Page_69">[Pg 69]</a></span> not quite +infallible, however, as the same forms may be assumed when the process is +from wet to dry.</p> + +<p>The old proverb, “Mackerel sky, soon wet or soon dry,” expresses this +uncertainty. If dry is to follow the scales will appreciably lessen in +size and perhaps disappear. If the cirro-stratus or scaly clouds are +followed by a conspicuous lowering it is only a question of a few hours +until precipitation begins. The cirro-stratus at a lower level is called +alto-stratus and this becomes heavy enough to obscure the sun.</p> + +<p>The cloud process from stratus on is slow or rapid, depending upon the +energy of the coming storm and the rate of its approach. In most cases the +clouds darken, solidify, and become a uniform gray, no shadows thrown, no +joints. Soon after the leaden hues are thus seamless the first snowflake +falls. If it doesn’t it is a sign that the process of condensation is +halting: the storm will not be severe. Sometimes there is no precipitation +after all this preparation, but under these circumstances the wind has not +ventured much east of north. From the time that the snow starts the clouds +have chance to tell little. Only by a process of relative lightening or +darkening can the progress of the storm be followed and the wind, and not +the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_70" id="Page_70">[Pg 70]</a></span> clouds at all, is the factor to be watched; for occasionally the sun +may shine through the tenuous snowclouds without presaging any genuine +clearing so long as the wind is in the east.</p> + +<p>But in summer the clouds become even more eloquent than the wind. The +rain-cloud, called the nimbus, becomes different from the dull winter +spectacle. In summer air becomes heated much more quickly and the warm +currents pour up into the cold altitudes where they condense into the +marvelous Mont Blancs (or ice-cream cones) of a summer afternoon. These +piled masses of vapor are cumulus clouds, and if they don’t overdo the +matter are a sign of fair weather. They should appear as little cottony +puffs about ten or eleven in the morning, increase slowly in size, rear +their dazzling heads and then start to melt about four in the afternoon.</p> + +<p>But perhaps the upward rush of warm, moist air has been so great in the +morning that the afternoon cooling cannot dispose of it all without +spilling. Then occurs a little shower,—the April sort. Often in our +mountainous districts it showers every day for this reason. The great +thunderstorms come for greater reasons: they are yoked to a low pressure +area and <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_71" id="Page_71">[Pg 71]</a></span>represent the summer’s brother to the winter’s three-day storm.</p> + +<p>Cumulus clouds are called fair weather clouds until their bellies swell +and blacken and they begin to form a combination in restraint of sunlight. +Even then it will not rain so much out of the blackness as out of the +grayness behind it, and if there is no grayness chances are that you will +escape a wetting. One can almost always measure the amount of rain that is +imminent by the density of the curtain being let down from the rear of the +cloud. If you can see the other clouds through it or the landscape the +shower will be slight. If a gray curtain obscures everything behind it you +had better pull your canoe out of the water and hide under it if time is +less valuable than a dry skin. Such showers may be successive but rarely +continuous.</p> + +<p>Rain clouds have been observed within 230 yards of the ground. Very often +it can be seen to rain from lofty clouds and the fringe of moisture +apparently fail to reach the earth, because the condensation was licked up +and totally absorbed on entering a stratum of warmer air. The reverse of +this occurs on rare occasions;—condensation takes place so rapidly that a +cloud does not have time to form, and rain comes<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_72" id="Page_72">[Pg 72]</a></span> from an apparently clear +sky. This phenomenon has been witnessed oftenest in dry regions and never +for very long or in great amounts, although a half hour of this sort of +disembodied storm is on record.</p> + +<p>If the cumulus clouds of the summer’s afternoon do not decrease in size as +evening approaches showers may be looked for during the night. And if the +morning sky is full of these puffy little clouds the day’s evaporation on +adding to them will probably cause rain. A trained eye will distinguish +between a stale and fresh appearance in cloud formation, the light, newly +made, fresh clouds, like fresh bread, contain more moisture. If the clouds +have much white about them they need not be feared as rain-bearers. Clouds +are much higher in summer than in winter and the raindrops of warm air are +larger than those of cool.</p> + +<p>If cumulus clouds heap up to leeward, that is, to the north, or northwest +on a south or southwest wind a heavy storm is sure to follow. This is +notably so as regards the series of showers in connection with the passage +of a low-pressure area. The wind will bear heavy showers from the south +(in summer) for a whole morning and half the afternoon with intervals of +brilliant sky and burning sun. Or perhaps<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_73" id="Page_73">[Pg 73]</a></span> the south wind will not produce +showers, but all the time along the northwest horizon a bank of cloud +grows blacker and approaches the zenith, flying in the face of the wind or +tacking like a squadron against it. About the time that the lightning +becomes noticeable and the thunder is heard the wind drops suddenly, veers +into the west, and the face of things darkens with the onrush of the +tempest.</p> + +<p>Although no rain may have fallen while the wind was in the southern +quarter yet that constituted the first half of the storm and the onslaught +of rain and thunder the second. While the storm area moved from the west +to the east the circulation of air about the center was vividly +demonstrated by the south wind blowing into the depression, whose center +was epitomized by the moment of calm before the charge of the plumed +thunderheads from the northwest.</p> + +<p>Most camping is done either in hilly or mountainous country where the +movement of clouds is swifter and more changeable than over flat lands. +There is one sign of great reliability: if the mountains put on their +nightcaps the weather is changing for the wetter, and if clouds rise on +the slopes of the hills or up ravines, or increase their height noticeably +over the <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_74" id="Page_74">[Pg 74]</a></span>mountain-tops, the weather is changing for the dryer. In the +mountains where abrupt cliffs toss the winds with all their moisture to +heights that cool clouds form and condense rapidly and the weather changes +quickly. But even in the mountains the big changes give plenty of warning.</p> + +<p>Often clouds may be noticed moving in two or even three directions on +different levels at once. The upper stratum will probably be cirrus from +the west. Cumulus or stratus may be floating up from the south. A light +drift of vapor called scud may fly on the surface easterly wind. Such a +confused condition of wind circulation betokens an unsettled system of air +pressures and as frequent collisions of the air bodies at varying +temperatures are inevitable rains, probably heavy, will follow.</p> + +<p>On clear days one will be surprised to see isolated clouds, usually the +torn, thin sort, drifting across the sky from the east. A change will +follow soon.</p> + +<p>In winter black, hard clouds betoken a bleak wind.</p> + +<p>Clear winter days several times a season show a brilliant blue sky filling +with great cumulus clouds of dark blue, blurred at the top and gray at the +base. They will sprinkle snow in<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_75" id="Page_75">[Pg 75]</a></span> smart, short flurries, and are ushering +in a period of clear and much colder weather.</p> + +<p>A sky full of white clouds and much light is a cheerful sign of continuing +fair weather.</p> + +<p>The softer the sky the milder the weather and the more gentle the wind. It +is the dark gloomy blues that bring the wind. But do not mistake the +woolly softness of the rolling clouds before a thunderstorm. A sudden and +often violent gust follows. Tumbling clouds in any event should make one +wary of venturing on water. Summer drownings would not be so numerous if +the portent of the squall were heeded.</p> + +<p>To this data might be added many singular cloud formations that are not +observed often. The funnel shaped cloud of the tornado, the green shades +of the hurricane cloud, the green sky of cold weather showing out between +layers of steel blue, coppery tints that show before heavy storms +sometimes, variations of color at sunset each of which has a meaning which +practice in deciphering will make clear. But enough has been given to show +sky-searchers how many are the tips of coming weather that may be read +from a conglomeration of fog particles. Nobody with eyes should be caught +unawares by day. The look of the sunset shadows forth much of the coming +night. And<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_76" id="Page_76">[Pg 76]</a></span> throughout all this truth holds: the greater the coming storm +the longer and clearer are the warnings given to the watchful.</p> + + +<p> </p> +<p class="center">THE WINDS</p> + +<p>The wind is the ring-master of the clouds. It whistles and they obey. +Therefore to be windwise is to be weatherwise, almost.</p> + +<p>One can get a hold on the wind by learning to gauge its strength. Look at +the trees or the smoke from your city chimneys and guess how fast it blows +at eight o’clock in the morning, or eight at night. The weather report the +next day will tell you how nearly you were right.</p> + +<p>Beginning is easy; anybody can guess a calm. When the leaves are just +moving lazily the Weather Bureau calls it a light or gentle breeze, moving +from 2 to 5 miles an hour. A fresh breeze, from 6 to 15 miles will stir +the twigs at first and finally swing the branches about. From 16 to 25 +miles, a brisk wind, will cause white caps on the lakes, tossing the tops +of the trees, but breaking only small twigs. Increasing from 26 to 40 +miles it becomes a high wind that breaks branches on trees, wrecks signs +in the towns, causes high waves at sea and roars like the ocean in heavy +squalls through the woods. From 40 to 60 miles an hour makes a<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_77" id="Page_77">[Pg 77]</a></span> gale. +Sailing craft are now in danger. The pressure at 50 miles an hour is 13 +pounds to the square foot, having risen from three-quarters of an ounce at +3 miles. This pressure becomes 40 pounds per foot when the wind reaches a +velocity of 90 miles.</p> + +<p>At 60 trees are uprooted, chimneys may go, it is difficult to walk +against, the noise becomes very great but rather inspires than frightens. +As the gale increases from 60 to 80 (which velocity the Bureau rather +weakly calls a storm wind), danger rapidly increases. Trees are +prostrated, the uproar becomes terrifying, walking without aid is +impossible, the great ocean liners are in danger, the sea becomes a +whitened surface of driving spume that heaps up into piles of water thirty +or more feet high, windows are blown in and frame houses cannot stand much +greater velocities. Anything from 80 miles an hour up is well called a +hurricane. Everything goes at 100. At Galveston the machine that +registered the wind velocity blew away at 100.</p> + +<p>They have better instruments now, and in many places velocities of over a +hundred miles an hour have been recorded. As high as 186 miles was +registered on the top of Mt. Washington, and in a single gust 110 at +Montreal.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_78" id="Page_78">[Pg 78]</a></span> The great hurricane winds are most felt at a few of the exposed +places on our coasts. Cape Mendocino, on the Pacific, has 144 miles an +hour to its credit in a January hurricane. But enough destruction is done +at 90 miles. Fields are stripped of their crops, or leveled; houses are +demolished unless they are specially built, like the New York +sky-scrapers, to withstand much higher velocities. In the small whirling +storms called tornadoes the wind is estimated to reach a velocity of 200 +to 500 miles, and nothing but the cyclone cellar will shelter one from the +fury of the elements when they are really unleashed.</p> + +<p>The higher one goes the greater the velocity of the wind. On the top of +Mt. Washington 100 miles is rather common for hours at a time and 150 is +recorded now and then. That is only 6000 feet above Boston. If such a +force struck Boston for a minute it would be blown <i>en masse</i> into the +Bay.</p> + +<p>Velocities on land are less than those at sea, because of the resulting +friction from obstacles. Velocities in summer are lower (thunder gusts +excepted) than in winter. Since the wind is caused by differences in +atmospheric pressure, and that in turn by disparities in temperature,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_79" id="Page_79">[Pg 79]</a></span> +winter holds the palm for greater velocities because the wide whirl of a +cyclone over the great plains may cause to mix air from Texas with a +temperature of 60 degrees with air from Montana of 30 degrees below zero, +while the summer temperatures in both states might easily be 80 degrees.</p> + +<p>Throughout most of our land certain winds have always the same bearing +upon the weather and this correspondence is roughly the same over most of +the country. West winds, for instance, are an almost universal guarantee +of clear weather. The Pacific Coast and western Florida are the +exceptions.</p> + +<p>Northwest winds bring clear skies and cool weather everywhere. In winter +in the north plateau section heavy snows arrive in advance of the severe +cold waves that come on these northwest gales.</p> + +<p>North winds are the cold bearing ones. Clear skies prevail under their +influence.</p> + +<p>Northeast winds are cold, raw snow-bearing winds in winter and spring and +bring chilly rains in midsummer.</p> + +<p>East winds are the surest rainbringers of all for the eastern two-thirds +of the country, and are soon followed by rain with a shift of wind<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_80" id="Page_80">[Pg 80]</a></span> over +the other third. Their temperatures are more moderate than those of the +northeast storms.</p> + +<p>The greatest falls of rain occur, however, with the southeast winds, whose +moisture content is greater than that of the others because they are +warmer and blow off water except in Rocky Mountain districts.</p> + +<p>South winds are warm and contain much moisture, which falls in showers +rather than in continuous rains.</p> + +<p>The southwest winds of winter precede a thaw and are much damper than west +winds. In summer over much of our country they are hot, parching winds +that injure vegetation.</p> + +<p>The average velocity of the wind from these different quarters is variable +in different parts of the country, the severest being on the southeast and +northwest quadrants. The highest winds are always where the steepest +gradients are; that is, where the barometric pressure decreases or +increases the fastest. The steepest gradients are usually on the northeast +and northwest sides of the storm center, with the exception of the +Atlantic Coast where the southeast winds are often highest. The average +for the northeast quadrant is 16 miles, for S. E. 30, for S. W. 20, and +for the N. W. 30 miles an hour.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_81" id="Page_81">[Pg 81]</a></span> But averages can deceive. As a matter +of fact single instances of great wind velocities occur from each point of +the compass. The greatest velocity ever recorded at Philadelphia occurred +in October, 1878, when the wind blew seventy-five miles an hour from the +southeast. But the record velocities for eight of the other months were +registered in the northwest quadrant.</p> + +<p> </p> +<div class="bbox" style="width: 600px; height: 344px;"><img src="images/img04.jpg" alt="" /></div> +<p class="center">ALTO-STRATUS</p> +<p class="center"><i>Courtesy of Richard F. Warren</i></p> + +<p class="note">Not so high as cirro-stratus, and yet partaking of the same skeiny +texture. This would be a normal sky in winter about six hours after the +veil of cirrus had begun to throw its haze about the sun. No other cloud +formations appear, however, and so the area of precipitation is still +pretty far away. In summer such a sky is less common. If the disturbance +is to amount to anything the cirro-cumulus will soon form. If the wind is +from a westerly quarter the blanket of cloud is doubtless a drift from +some distant storm, which will not affect this locality. The wind is +always blowing toward a storm and away from clear weather.</p> +<p> </p> + +<p>The period of time when the barometer is beginning to rise after having +been very low is that when the strongest winds blow.</p> + +<p>Some sections of our country have special kinds of wind that are +peculiarly their own, notably Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana where the +chinook reigns. This phenomenon belongs only to the cold season and only +to the coldest days of it. It is a warm wind that begins to blow without +much warning from the southern quarter. It is caused by a body of cold air +suddenly falling from a great height. As it falls its descent heats it and +it causes a rise in the temperature of the surrounding locality that +greatly exceeds any rise from other causes. The increase in temperature +will be as much as forty degrees in fifteen minutes.</p> + +<p>This sudden dry heat is a great snow-eater. If it were not for the chinook +the snow-blanket would stay so much longer on the cattle ranges<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_82" id="Page_82">[Pg 82]</a></span> that they +would be useless as such. In northeastern sections of our country and +Canada the warm winds blowing in from the ocean at the approach of a +cyclone do away with the snow rapidly but with nothing like the speed of +the chinook.</p> + +<p>Another phenomenon of the air that is of tremendous benefit to man is the +sea-breeze. During the intense heat of a hot wave the wind may shift to +the east in Boston and in fifteen minutes coats are comfortable. Such a +shift may bring relief to a strip of land two hundred miles wide along our +entire eastern seaboard. The sea-breeze is explained by the fact that the +land cools more quickly than the sea and also warms more easily. During +the whole forenoon of a summer’s day the sun has been pouring upon land +and sea, but the land-air has become much hotter than the air over the +sea. It rises and the sea-air rushes landward. By midnight the land has +cooled off even more than the sea and the heavier air now presses out to +sea again. On every normal day this balancing process takes place.</p> + +<p>If it doesn’t conditions are abnormal and chances are that mischief is +brewing. This ebb and flow of warmer and cooler air is, on a small scale, +exactly what is happening on a vastly<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_83" id="Page_83">[Pg 83]</a></span> larger field of operations between +cyclone and anticyclone. And it is the dominance of the anticyclone with +its prolonged rush of air from the northwest that interrupts the sea +breeze for two or three days in winter, as the cyclone prevents the night +land breeze from taking place when it is central off the eastern coast.</p> + +<p>The exchange of air between mountain side and valley is similar to the +land-and-sea breeze. The rarer air on the mountain side heats faster by +day and cools faster by night than the denser air in the valley. Therefore +during the day it rises and the valley air rushes up to take its place; +during the night it cools and sinks into the valley. This is a great help +when one is shut up in a secluded valley for several days and cannot get a +good view of the skies. The atmosphere is acting properly and will remain +settled so long as the air blows up your ravine for most of the day, and +turns about sundown and blows out and down the ravine like a flood of +refreshing water.</p> + +<p>Of course many valleys are so large as to be affected, not by these local +causes, but by the larger movements of the anticyclones when the +sure-clear west wind may blow up the valley for three days at a time. But, +nevertheless, for most mountainous places the logic holds and you<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_84" id="Page_84">[Pg 84]</a></span> may +expect rain if the wind does not blow coolly down the ravine at night. Of +course watch your clouds for confirmation.</p> + +<p>In times of calm prepare for storm. An eminent meteorologist has frowned +upon me for saying that. It is not the whole truth, I admit, but there is +a certain kind of calm which happens often enough to justify the remark. +It happens this way. A severe storm has passed. The customary anticyclone +with its brisk northwest winds has arrived and is blowing with all the +vigor necessary to induce one to believe that the clear weather is to +continue for the usual length of time; that is, three or four days. But +suddenly in the early afternoon, just when it should be blowing its +hardest, the wind drops, lulls, shows a tendency to change its direction. +There is only one explanation. Another cyclone has developed off in the +west. It has knocked the anticyclone on the flank, taken the teeth out of +the gale.</p> + +<p>The wind shows this before clouds can. The absence of wind when there +ought to be a lot shows it before even the first cirrus swims overhead. +The chance is that when the flow of anticyclonic air has been thus rudely +cut off and stillness follows, it will be storming by morning. It is best +to keep an eye on these abnormal, <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_85" id="Page_85">[Pg 85]</a></span>precipitous calms. In times of peace +prepare for rain.</p> + +<p>But the eminent meteorologist was eminently right when he said that the +statement was misleading unless explained. For there are many kinds of +calms that do not portend coming storms. Nearly every day, winter and +summer, but particularly in summer, the wind drops to a calm at sunset. +That is a time of adjustment. After sunset when the accounts are all in +the wind springs up with as much force as it had in the afternoon and +continues until dawn. At sunrise, however, there is another truce. If this +truce is neglected either at sunrise or at sunset it is a sign that either +a cyclone on an anticyclone is very much in the ascendency. These truces +are most often observed at the seashore when you are out sailing and the +smell of supper fills your nostrils but is not sufficient to fill your +sails. These calms are normal and the best sign of a fair day on the +morrow, provided the other signs agree.</p> + +<p>During the great transition period from summer to winter comes that +autumnal truce, Indian Summer, which is the chief claim to fame of +American weather. For day after day a brooding haze sleeps in the air, +sometimes for weeks there is no wind of any strength. Winter <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_86" id="Page_86">[Pg 86]</a></span>advances +insidiously in the fall but retreats in commotion, and the cooling off +process permits of these still days while they are uncommon in the spring. +The wind checks off more mileage in March than in any other month.</p> + +<p>While the regular day’s end calm and the calm of the year’s exhaustion +mean continued fair weather, there is one calm that everybody knows, which +is the most dramatic moment in the whole repertory of the weather: the +foreboding, ten-count wait before the knockout blow of the thunderstorm. +But when that calm comes every one is already sitting tight so that it is +not much account as a warning. They say that the intense stillness before +the hurricane strikes is uncanny.</p> + +<p>Whether inshore or afloat the wind is to be watched if you would know what +weather is to be. It is only another of Nature’s paradoxes that the most +unstable element should be the most reliable guide of all on the uncertain +trail of the next day’s weather.</p> + + +<p> </p> +<p class="center">TEMPERATURES</p> + +<p>Considering that the temperature of the sun is 14,072 degrees Fahrenheit +and the temperature of space is absolute zero, 459 degrees <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_87" id="Page_87">[Pg 87]</a></span>below ours, we +do very well on earth to be as comfortable as we are.</p> + +<p>And we owe it all to the atmosphere which keeps the sun from concentrating +upon us. Our place in the sun is so very small that we intercept only +one-half of one billionth of the heat which it is giving off night and +day. But that is sufficient to do a lot of damage if it could get at us.</p> + +<p>But even the paltry range of temperatures so far recorded on our +planet,—from 134 degrees above zero one day in California, to 90 degrees +below zero one night in Siberia,—is by no means a fair statement of the +extremes we are called upon to bear. Only twice a decade in our country +does the mercury vary as much as sixty degrees in twenty-four hours, and +there are vast areas where the daily change amounts to only a few degrees.</p> + +<p>The changes that do come so suddenly to us, particularly in winter and +that are known as cold waves, are in reality beneficial. To them we +Americans may owe our energy, our vivacity, our changeability of mood. The +refrigerated, revivified air sweeping down from the north is tonic. It is +heavy, and issuing from antiseptic altitudes, drives the humid, +germ-nursing air from our city streets. If we had arranged a<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_88" id="Page_88">[Pg 88]</a></span> process of +refreshment like this at vast expense we should have been intensely proud +of it. As it is we are intensely annoyed at it and occasionally a few +people are frozen to death. The Weather Bureau warnings and the coal clubs +are reducing the loss in property and lives.</p> + +<p>If you are sleeping out it is of great importance to know when the mercury +is going to take one of these swoops, for sleeping cold means little real +rest because one’s muscles are tense, and the next day’s packing needs all +the relaxation one can get. Two generalizations govern pretty much every +change of temperature: the mercury will rise before a storm and it will +fall after one, winter and summer, but much more conspicuously in winter.</p> + +<p>There are two reasons for this. Our cyclones usually cross our country +over such a northern track that over most of the country the air drawn +into them comes from the southern quarters and is therefore warmer than +the air previously flowing from the anticyclone. Also the process of +precipitation causes heat. This is true to such an extent on the coast of +Ireland where it rains most of the time that a scientist has computed that +the inhabitants get from one-third to one-half as much heat from the +rainfall as they do directly from the sun. Thus a <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_89" id="Page_89">[Pg 89]</a></span>normal storm is doubly +sure to warm up the environment.</p> + +<p>In summer the reverse is partially true, for very often the rain does not +begin until the actual center of depression has passed and the west winds +have begun to exercise their cooling influence. So that in summer we have +a sultry, sunny day as the first half of the storm area and then a cooling +shower. Also after two or three days of warm weather in spring and autumn +we have a rainstorm of the winter type which lowers the temperature +instead of raising it. This is because the heat produced by the storm is +less than that of the sun’s rays intercepted by the clouds. The clear +skies of the preceding anticyclone had permitted the land to warm up very +fast under the midsummer sun, and the clouds of the cyclone, by cutting +off the supply, had made a relative chill.</p> + +<p>In winter the sunrays are so much feebler because of their slant and +radiation proceeds so rapidly under the dry air of the anticyclone that a +much greater degree of cold is produced than when the cyclonic clouds +prevent the radiation. Therefore the rainy area is the warmest of all. +Even in summer the winds from the southeast, south, and southwest are +warmer than those from the opposite quarters, not only because<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_90" id="Page_90">[Pg 90]</a></span> they blow +from a quarter naturally warmer on account of the sun, but because they +are surface winds and have absorbed some of the heat from the soil. Being +denser, they absorb it more readily and hold it longer.</p> + +<p>The change, then, from the period of fair weather to that of storm brings +an increase of temperature. But the rate of increase varies. The faster +the storm is approaching the faster the temperature will rise; and the +route of the storm’s center makes all the difference as to the amount of +the rise. If the wind shifts by way of the north and holds in the +northeast until precipitation begins the rise in temperature will be very +slight. The great snowstorms of the northern half of the country occur +under just such a circumstance. If the wind shifts by way of the north but +gets around to the east or even southeast before the precipitation starts +the rise in temperature will be more pronounced, as much as thirty degrees +sometimes in a few hours, and the winter storm that started in as snow +soon changes to sleet and rain.</p> + +<p>If the wind shifts by way of the south and then into the southeast the +rise will be vigorous and the storm will likely be a comparatively warm +rain. If the wind shifts only so far as the south the rise will be highest +of all and blue<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_91" id="Page_91">[Pg 91]</a></span> sky will often appear between the showers, showing that +the air is heated to a considerable height.</p> + +<p>The progress of the temperature changes from the maximum of the cyclonic +area to the minimum of the anticyclone is also dependent upon the wind. If +the storm center is passing south and the wind begins to pull into the +northeast and north the temperature will fall steadily and slowly. The +rain or snow often cease gradually by the time the wind has reached the +north, but the temperature continues to fall slowly until it reaches very +low levels in mid-winter. If the storm center is passing north of you the +wind which has brought most of the rain while it was in the southeast with +comparatively high temperatures swings into the southwest, the temperature +falls somewhat.</p> + +<p>There is usually a final downpour and a rapid shift of the wind into the +west or northwest, but almost never directly into the north. The +temperature falls several degrees in a few minutes, quite unlike the +gradual decline of the northeast-by-north shift, and clear skies come at +once with rapidly diminishing temperatures. In the vicinity of +Philadelphia a fall of twenty-five degrees would be most unusual on the +northeast shift,—such storms reaching 38 degrees and<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_92" id="Page_92">[Pg 92]</a></span> falling to 15, +while with the other shift a fall from 55 degrees to 15 would not be +unusual. Of course any one set of figures given could only show the +tendency and not the rule or limits.</p> + +<p>After the manner of the wind-shift the intensity of the storm is a good +gauge of the temperature change to be expected by the camper. As a rule +the greater the intensity of the storm the greater will be the degree of +cold that follows it. The storms that have a complete wind circulation +about them are always more severe than those with incomplete circulation +and are invariably followed up by some reduction in temperature. If the +decrease is not proportionately great and the subsequent wind has only a +moderate clearing quality look out for another cyclone.</p> + +<p>In such a case the temperature is the best witness of the contemplated +change. For instance, after a summer thunderstorm a decided coolness is +<i>de rigeur</i>. If this does not occur it means nearly every time that there +is another thunderstorm in process of construction. There may be not a +cloud in the sky, there may be no wind (although there should be) so that +the course of the thermometer is the only means of telling what is to be +the next event. Anybody can take a thermometer with him although<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_93" id="Page_93">[Pg 93]</a></span> a +barometer—the most accurate forecaster of all—may be thought too much +expense and bother.</p> + +<p>At some future date the Weather Bureau will be able to predict the +temperature of seasons in advance. This, together with the amount of rain +scheduled to fall, will be an invaluable aid to everybody and to the +farmers most of all. At present mild seasons that have severe storms +without the appropriate degree of cold after them cannot be entirely +explained, let alone being prediscovered. They all hinge upon the more or +less permanent areas of high and low air pressure over the oceans and +international meteorological service has not progressed far enough to +support many ocean stations as yet.</p> + +<p>Sometimes clear weather may intensify, growing brighter, stiller, colder. +This is because the pressure is increasing. Cold seasons are distinguished +usually by a succession of anticyclones. There is no way of telling how +long a certain spell of cold weather is to last, but I have noticed that +the same characteristics rarely predominate for longer than a month at a +time. In other words, if December has been warm and rainy, January will +likely be cold and dry. Of course, that is precisely the unscientific sort +of generalization which the Bureau very rightly<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_94" id="Page_94">[Pg 94]</a></span> frowns upon, but which +one may nurse privately until science has provided a substitute as she +already has in so many instances.</p> + +<p>With a little practice it is an easy matter to estimate the temperature to +within a very few degrees. Try guessing for a few mornings and then look +at the thermometer. You will hit within three degrees every time after a +week of this.</p> + +<p>Allowance must be made for the amount of moisture in the air and for the +force of the wind. Damp air feels colder by several degrees than crisp, +dry air, and a breeze increases the difference still more. Air in motion +is not necessarily colder than calm air. As a matter of fact the lowest +temperatures of all are recorded about sunrise after a still, clear night. +The amount of radiation accomplished during the last hours of the night is +amazing, and the downward impetus of the thermometer is often carried on +for an hour or more after the sun has appeared above the horizon. A +self-recording thermometer is an amusing toy which will show this and +becomes a valuable instrument if one raises fruit.</p> + +<p>In winter three o’clock of an afternoon sees the highest temperature +usually, and in summer this maximum occurs as late as half-past five,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_95" id="Page_95">[Pg 95]</a></span> due +to the fact that the sun can pour in its heat faster than the earth can +radiate it off. For the half hour before and after sunset, particularly in +winter, the loss of heat is relatively greatest; then the pace slackens +till three or four in the morning, when the plunge of the mercury is +accelerated until the rays of the rising sun counteract the radiation.</p> + +<p>If the mercury does not rise appreciably on a clear winter’s day it is a +sign that a cold wave is stealing in, due, doubtless, to a gradual +increase in pressure without its customary bluster. Very often snow +flurries predict its approach, but this may be so gradual that only the +restriction of the daily thermal rise may indicate it. By the next morning +the temperature will likely be twenty degrees colder.</p> + +<p>If the mercury does not fall on a clear winter’s night it is a sign that a +layer of moist air not far above the surface of the earth is checking the +normal night radiation. Unsettled weather is almost sure to follow unless +this wet blanket is itself dissipated and the mercury takes its customary +tumble before morning.</p> + +<p>If the temperature falls while the sky is still covered with clouds +clearing, possibly after a little precipitation, will soon follow.</p> + +<p>Hot waves approach insidiously. A night<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_96" id="Page_96">[Pg 96]</a></span> will not cool off as it properly +should, the sun will rise coppery, and while the day is yet young +everybody begins to realize that all is not exactly right. But the heat +increases usually for several days, not only by reason of steadily +lowering pressure, but also by accumulation. Finally when a climax is +reached it departs abruptly on the toe of a thunderstorm.</p> + +<p>A cold wave reverses the process. It arrives abruptly on the heels of a +departing cyclone and, after losing power, steals away without any +commotion whatever. Its rate of progress is in close relation to the +cyclone ahead of it.</p> + +<p>Our mountains play a great part in our weather. They are a right arm of +Providence to our agricultural communities. Due to their north and south +trend a cold wave of any severity reaches the Pacific Coast only once a +generation. Just once has snow been observed to fall at San Diego and it +is so rare south of San Francisco that many people never have seen a +flake. East of the mountains the belt of desert makes natural crops +impossible for a thousand miles, but if they crossed the continent all the +territory north of them would have such a cold climate that none of the +present enormous crops of Canada and our northern states could possibly be +grown. It is also due to the wide<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_97" id="Page_97">[Pg 97]</a></span> insweep of winds from the Gulf that +the plains states are so well watered.</p> + +<p> </p> +<div class="bbox" style="width: 600px; height: 356px;"><img src="images/img05.jpg" alt="" /></div> +<p class="center">CUMULUS</p> +<p class="center"><i>Courtesy of Richard F. Warren</i></p> + +<p class="note">The tops of cumulus are irregular, looking like wool-packs; the bases are +flat. The true cumulus shows a sharp outline all the way round. Its shape +is in constant change due to the strong winds it is encountering. It is +caused by the swift uprush of warm air on a sunny day. This cloud is a +sign of fair weather, because the base is not large, compact, or dark +enough to threaten rain and its comrades are also disjointed. If the +cumulus grow darker toward the horizon and increase toward evening a +squall is likely.</p> +<p> </p> + +<p>In lesser fashion the Appalachians protect the Atlantic seaboard. They +withstand the impact of the cold waves to a great extent, although they +are not high enough to divert the flow of cold air entirely toward the +south and it is not desirable that they should. As things are the cold +strikes Alabama before it hits New Jersey, and is often more severe there.</p> + +<p>Comparative cold is often registered by the green color of the sky. A +fiery red continues the prevailing heat.</p> + +<p>The day that is ushered in by a fog, in summer, will likely be warm, +providing the fog lifts by ten o’clock.</p> + +<p>The temperature of a night with even a thin covering of clouds will be a +good deal higher than if the sky is clear. In the British Isles the whole +difference between freezing and no freezing lies with the fairness of the +heavens. Everywhere frost will not form while the sky is covered, although +the temperature may be below the freezing point. In summer radiation on a +still clear night may be so rapid that frost may follow a temperature of +fifty degrees at nightfall.</p> + +<p>The temperature at the surface of the earth<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_98" id="Page_98">[Pg 98]</a></span> may easily deceive, as a +colder or warmer stratum of air may overlie that immediately next to the +ground. I have seen water particles fall when the temperature was as low +as 16 degrees above zero, showing that the stratum of cold air was very +thin. Our sleet storms in which immense damage is done to trees and +telegraph wires occurs from just such a situation,—a cold, shallow layer +of air close to the earth, with the warm moisture-bearing air flowing over +it. The reverse of this situation is not uncommon—the sight of a +snowstorm proceeding merrily along with the ground temperature at 35 or +even 40 degrees.</p> + +<p>Coming warmth may be noticed by the increase in size of snow flakes, with +finally hail and rain. Coming cold is foreshadowed by hail mixed with the +rain and lastly snow flakes which have a tendency to decrease in size. +Colors of the clouds predict temperature changes, but it takes much +practice to distinguish the cold, hard grays from the soft, warm ones. A +warm sky is always less uniform in color than a cold one. The colors of +winter sunsets are, as a rule, much brighter than those of summer skies.</p> + +<p>The stars seem brighter on a night that is to be cold. If they twinkle it +is because of rushing<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_99" id="Page_99">[Pg 99]</a></span> air currents, and if the wind is from the northwest +the result may be a subsequent lowering of temperatures.</p> + +<p>The whole question of whether it will be colder and how much is vital to +the camper and if the signs of change are taken along with the look of the +clouds and the direction of the wind he need never be wrong as to the +direction the mercury is going, and will soon be able to guess the +distance pretty fairly.</p> + + +<p> </p> +<p class="center">RAIN AND SNOW</p> + +<p>East of the Mississippi River rain falls with the utmost impartiality upon +every locality. Thirty to fifty inches are delivered at intervals of three +or four days throughout the year. And if there is a slight irregularity in +delivery one can be sure that from 125 to 150 of the 365 days will be +rainy. Occasionally there is a more or less serious hold up of supplies, +but this rarely happens in the spring of the year and never happens to all +sections at once. And if there is a desire to make amends for the drought, +we have what we call a flood and blame it on the weather instead of on our +precipitous denudation of the watersheds.</p> + +<p>West of the Mississippi particular people have to go to particular places +for their rain.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_100" id="Page_100">[Pg 100]</a></span> If they like a lot of it they must go to the coast +districts of Washington or Oregon where they can have it almost every day. +It rains a good deal at Eastport, Maine,—about 45 inches a year; that is, +nearly an inch a week,—but at Neal Bay, Washington, at about the same +latitude, in one year it rained 140 inches, and it never stops short of +100 inches any year.</p> + +<p>On the other hand, if the Washington people are tired of it they need only +escape to Arizona where it rains about two inches a year, and they can +live in an enterprising hotel down there whose manager believes that it +pays to advertise the sun. He guarantees to provide free board on every +day that the sun doesn’t shine.</p> + +<p>In the plateau section enough snow falls every year to store up enough +water for irrigation purposes, and the little rain that falls arrives in +just the right season to do the most good, the spring. In California what +the farmers lose in amount they make up in the regularity of its arrival.</p> + +<p>North of the Ohio River most of the precipitation from November to April +is snow. About 50 inches of it falls on the average over this tremendous +territory. And it is more useful than rain,—the handy blanket that makes +lumber-hauling easy, that keeps the ground<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_101" id="Page_101">[Pg 101]</a></span> from freezing to Arctic +depths, that fertilizes the soil, and that acts as a great reservoir, +holding over the meat and drink of the vegetable kingdom till the thirsty +time arrives. In upper Michigan and Maine the average depth becomes 100 +inches. Averages are very misleading when snowfall is being considered, +some winters producing very scanty amounts and others heaping it on to the +depth of 185 inches once at North Volney, New York.</p> + +<p>South of the Ohio the depth varies from substantial amounts in some +winters to almost nothing in others. Snow has been observed, however, in +every part of our country except the extreme southern tip of Florida. Once +and only once on the records a great three-day snowstorm visited all of +southern California, extending to the Mexican border and to the coast.</p> + +<p>The strip of country between the parallels of New York City and Richmond +comprises the section wherein each winter storm is one large guess as to +whether the precipitation is to be snow or rain. A compromise is usually +affected in this way. Before the clouding up began the mercury may have +stood at ten degrees below zero. As soon as the wind acquired an easterly +slant the temperature increased. As it neared the freezing point the snow +would begin, first in<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_102" id="Page_102">[Pg 102]</a></span> flakes of medium size which would enlarge until +after a particularly heavy fall of a few minutes they would at once almost +cease. Hail soon would succeed, the mercury still rising, and often the +hail would have turned to rain before the freezing point of the air of the +immediate surface of the earth had been reached, turning the snow already +on the ground to slush and making a holiday for germs.</p> + +<p>One can always tell when this change to warmer is about to occur because +the clouds which have been part and parcel with the obscuring snow +suddenly show, not lighter but darker. The sudden increase in size of the +flakes is another infallible symptom of increasing warmth in the +atmosphere for each large flake is a compound of many smaller ones. When +the temperature is low the flakes are very small, being grains and +spicules in the severe blizzards of the west and falling as snow-dust in +the Arctic. In the heavy storms of the guessing-belt the flakes are not +necessarily small.</p> + +<p>I have noticed (in the latitude of Philadelphia) that our largest storms +begin very leisurely indeed with small and regular-sized flakes. A quarter +of an inch may not fall in the first hour. As the center nears the snow +comes ever faster and larger, but not large, flakes are mixed<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_103" id="Page_103">[Pg 103]</a></span> with the +original-sized flakes. Snow dust is apparent. At the height of the storm +flakes of all sizes except the very large are falling, denoting great +activity in the strata of air within the storm influence. In the ordinary +storm an accumulation at the rate of an inch an hour denotes a storm of +considerable intensity.</p> + +<p>The snow will likely keep on falling as long as the flakes are irregular +in size. If they grow large and few or very small a cessation is likely, +even though the wind is still blowing from an easterly quarter. The amount +of snow likely to fall can be gauged not only by the process of +flake-change but by the rate at which the wind rises. A storm’s intensity +is measured by the amount of wind. A storm can be a storm without a drop +of rain or flake of snow if only there be enough wind. And as long as the +wind in a snowstorm keeps rising the storm is likely to go on, probably +increasing in volume of precipitation.</p> + +<p>If the wind shows a tendency to edge around to the southeast there is +danger of the snow turning to rain; if the wind veers slowly to the +northeast the temperature will fall slowly and the rate of precipitation +will likely increase for a while. In such instances the snow does not +continue to fall after the wind has swung west<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_104" id="Page_104">[Pg 104]</a></span> of north. Often clearing +takes place with the wind still in the north or even a point east of +north.</p> + +<p>Contrary to superstition snow may begin to fall at any hour of the day or +night. But certain hours seem more propitious than others, owing no doubt +to the tendency of cooling air to condense. Three o’clock of an afternoon +and eight o’clock in the morning are favorite times, the one being the +hour of a winter afternoon when cooling is begun, the other the hour when +the coldest time is reached and condensation likely if at all. Of course, +one remembers storms beginning at nine, ten, eleven, and every other hour.</p> + +<p>Storms that begin in the morning seldom reach much activity before three +o’clock in the afternoon, while those that begin then quickly increase in +intensity as evening draws near and the sun’s warmth is withdrawn from the +upper air-strata. More snow falls at night than in the daytime, also. Snow +is more delicate than rain and perhaps more responsive than rain to the +subtle changes of the atmosphere. Possibly there is no ground on the +Bureau records for these ideas, possibly storms have a tendency to start +from the Gulf on their northeastward journey and so reach Philadelphia +oftener at one<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_105" id="Page_105">[Pg 105]</a></span> time than another. I would like my notions confirmed that +snowstorms increase at nightfall, and that they prefer to start operations +at sunrise and about sunset.</p> + +<p>For the camper the snowstorm need have no terrors. It gives a long warning +of its approach. It comes mostly without destructive winds. Its upholstery +protects and warms the walls of one’s tent. It adds beauty to the leafless +woods, interest to the trailer, and a hundred amusements among the hills.</p> + +<p>But the value of snowy weather is not only measured by its beauties and +commercial uses. There is another way: make it read character for you. +Watch the reactions toward the first snowfall of half a dozen kinds of +people. It will show you what they are; give you a very fair measure of +their youth.</p> + +<p>Our atmosphere contains a lot of moisture that never gets precipitated. +You can prove this on any warm day by noticing the way the atmosphere acts +toward a glass of ice-water. When the air of the room is much warmer than +the surface of the glass it surrenders its moisture willy nilly. Sometimes +this condensation is enough to cause a miniature rainstorm that trickles +down the outside of the tumbler. If a small cold surface can wring so much +water out<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_106" id="Page_106">[Pg 106]</a></span> of a little air it is small wonder that we get an inch or so of +rain from vast currents of air at unequal temperatures.</p> + +<p>Try to visualize the process. A stream of vapor has been warmed and is +ascending. A mile up and it has cooled not only by the reason of altitude +but also by the process itself. About each little dust-particle in the +surrounding area vapor forms—vapor cannot form without something to form +on, there being always enough dust from deserts and volcanoes to go round. +If the cooling proceeds the tiny globules enlarge and as they increase in +weight they settle and fall. Falling, they unite with others.</p> + +<p>If the air-strata are very warm and thick the drops may grow to a very +considerable size. We see these in the middle of our great winter rains +when the insweep of southern winds with all their warmth and moisture is +very extensive. Also the first few drops that come from the thick, hot +lips of the thundercloud are usually immense.</p> + +<p>The best way to measure the size of a raindrop is to have it fall in a box +of dry sand. It rolls up the sand and measurements can be easily and +accurately made. But the most interesting way is to let the first drops of +the thunderstorm fall upon a sheet of blotting paper.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_107" id="Page_107">[Pg 107]</a></span> If the same sort of +blotting paper is used the measurements will be of just as much importance +for comparison. Circles as big as teacups are formed sometimes.</p> + +<p>Heavy drops in winter mean a heavy fall, because they denote high +temperatures which are uncommon and are bound to be followed by +considerable condensation as the cooling proceeds back to normal +temperatures. Small drops in summer mean either cooler weather, or sudden +condensation. Small drops in winter are a sign of very thin +moisture-bearing strata, or low temperatures, indicating that the rain +will be light, protracted, and liable to change to snow.</p> + +<p>Hail is frozen rain. Winter hail is small and harmless and rarely falls to +any depth because the exact temperatures that bring forth the hail rarely +continue for very long at a time. Hail in winter is merely the stepping +stone to either rain or snow. But in summer hail is a serious matter. It +shows that there is a violent disturbance of the atmosphere in progress. +Vertical air currents, probably abetted by electricity,—the authorities +are not sure—often carry the stones up several times. They take on layer +after layer, coalesce, and sometimes fall the size of eggs, apples, or any +other fruit,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_108" id="Page_108">[Pg 108]</a></span> barring melons. The usual summer hail does not exceed the +size of a robin’s egg. Even a projectile of that size, however, falling +for a half mile or more has a tremendous destructive power. Greenhouses +suffer, birds are killed, cattle stunned, and loss of life has been known +to follow. In August in 1851 in New Hampshire hailstones fell to the +weight of 18 ounces, diameter 4 inches, circumference 12 inches. In +Pittsburgh stones weighing a full pound have crashed down, and in Europe +where many destructive storms have occurred there are official records of +even greater phenomena. The lightning accompanying these hailstones is +usually very severe. A flake or ball of snow forms the nucleus of a +hailstone.</p> + +<p>If a thundercloud looks particularly black or if it can be seen in +commotion think of hail and seek shelter. It is pretty difficult to +predict exactly when hail is going to fall in summer. It is a possibility +with every large storm, but a probability with only a very few during the +summer. It accompanies tornadoes.</p> + +<p>In winter hail falls before a rainstorm, even when the ground temperature +precludes the possibility of snow; some lingering stratum of cold air has +ensnared the drops on their way down.</p> + +<p>Snow is not frozen rain. It has an origin of<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_109" id="Page_109">[Pg 109]</a></span> its own. It is born in a +temperature consistently below freezing and on the condensation of the +invisible moisture becomes visible as a tiny crystal. These infinitesimal +crystals unite and form larger, hexagonal shapes, elongated or starry. +They are wafted along, sinking, all slightly differing one from another, +although forming a few types. These types have been photographed and +catalogued and very often the altitude from which the snow is coming may +be learned from their shape and design. But this branch of science is +young yet and confusing and the outdoor man has surer signs of the +vicissitudes of the storm, in the general size of the flakes, the power +and direction of the wind, the clouds and temperature. The possibilities +of flake-study as a means of forecasting are many and of value as is +anything that tends to unveil the secrets of the greater heights.</p> + +<p>Snowflakes are so light that after the storm processes are over and the +sun has come out the residue may still float lazily to the ground.</p> + +<p>The wild disorder of the snow flurry will only last a few minutes and +never leave much snow on the ground.</p> + +<p>Snowstorms that come on the wings of the west wind may be severe, but they +will be short. They are unusual in the east, but sometimes the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_110" id="Page_110">[Pg 110]</a></span> heaviest +snows of the western states come on the sudden cooling that follows the +shift to west.</p> + +<p>Snowstorms arriving on a high wind last only a few hours.</p> + +<p>Snowstorms that are long in gathering and increase to considerable +intensity continue a long while.</p> + +<p>Those that follow a sudden clouding up are of no importance.</p> + +<p>The snowstorms that leave on a high wind from the west or northwest are +followed by a cold wave. Those that continue after the storm wind has died +away are succeeded by calm, clear, and usually warmer weather.</p> + +<p>In northern districts a snowstorm may be looked for after a period of cold +weather. In middle districts if the cold has been severe the reaction to +warmer may bring rain instead. In such cases generalities are of no use, +and the possibilities must be determined by the man on the spot. The best +conditions for snow through the middle districts are occasioned by an area +of low-pressure with its attendant precipitation crossing the southern +half of the country while the northern half is under the influence of an +area of high-pressure with its attendant frigidity. The cold air flows +into the southern storm with the result that the middle districts get the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_111" id="Page_111">[Pg 111]</a></span> +northern quadrants of the storm which are the usual snow-bearing ones +instead of the southern rain-bearing quadrants that they would have got if +the center of the storm had pursued its usual course up the Ohio and down +the St. Lawrence.</p> + +<p>If the storm has two centers, one over Texas and the other over Montana, +as is so frequently the case in winter, the subsequent high pressure will +come too late to affect the temperature of the zone of precipitation and +the latter will likely be rain in the middle districts. Sometimes the +cyclones cross the country on the Canadian border and enough warm air is +sucked over the line to give the inhabitants of Montreal a thaw and rain. +This happens to them only once or twice a winter. And even more rarely a +cyclone over the Gulf with an anticyclone above it will give the Gulf +States a taste of winter, but rarely more than a few flakes.</p> + +<p>It really all depends on the influx of air, its rate and direction. It +rains in Alaska and snows in Georgia on the same day merely because at one +place the air is coming off the Pacific, and at the other it is flowing +from the center of a refrigerated continent.</p> + +<p>And the progress of these storms is one of Nature’s greatest poems if you +take a minute to think of them sweeping on in majesty, the one<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_112" id="Page_112">[Pg 112]</a></span> thing that +man cannot control. Even the snow which is the citizens’ curse as well as +the farmers’ blessing becomes epic when it beleaguers an empire for half a +year.</p> + + +<p> </p> +<p class="center">DEW AND FROST</p> + +<p>The very process that made the tumbler of ice-water sweat on the hot day +causes dew. And the formation of frost is analogous to that of snow. Frost +is not frozen dew, but the formation of moisture crystals at the +temperature of 32° or below. Frost or dew form only on still, cloudless +nights. Even if no clouds are visible, neither will form if a stratum of +humid air has prevented radiation. Hence either dew or frost is a fairly +good sign of clear weather.</p> + +<p>Three white frosts on successive mornings are followed by a rain. This +saying holds water not because there is any virtue in frost to cause rain, +but because a storm is normally due once a week. The frosts did not form +when the anticyclonic winds were blowing and usually not more than three +mornings elapse between the time that the anticyclone has lost its +influence and the time for the next cyclone to appear. Frost indicates a +considerable amount of moisture in the atmosphere, also, which tends to +increase as the cyclone approaches.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_113" id="Page_113">[Pg 113]</a></span>The heaviest dews come in late summer and the heaviest frosts in +mid-autumn because the change in temperature is greatest then and there is +a greater chance that there will be a calm at sunrise. The greatest frost +damage occurs in the spring because the tenderer crops are growing then. +Summer frosts used to occur in the northern parts of Minnesota and along +the southern boundaries of the inland Canadian provinces before the +forests were cleared off. The march of civilization has actually pushed +back the frost line some distance.</p> + +<p>Frost may occur when the amount of humidity in the air is low and the +barometer rising at any temperature under 50 degrees at nightfall, the +clear skies permitting radiation enough under those circumstances to +produce the necessary cooling. An evening temperature of 40 degrees with +the clear skies and faint west breeze will almost surely produce a frost, +provided the wind drops. In such circumstances the only hope for the +farmer is that there is enough humidity in the air to cause a fog before +the frost-point is reached. A temperature touching 34 degrees would not +bring frost, however, if the sky was at all overcast. Frost is difficult +to predict because a night shift in the wind, cloudiness that forms after +midnight, or even a wind arising<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_114" id="Page_114">[Pg 114]</a></span> before the coolest period at dawn will +prevent its formation. On the other hand, clouds may disperse, the wind +may fall or radiation may be so rapid before sunrise as to cause a killing +frost unawares. The farmer who lives in areas disputed by winter and +spring may never be quite sure, but precautions should be taken on the +still, clear, dry nights with the thermometer at fifty or below.</p> + +<p>Fruit-growers resort to fires or to coverings to protect their crops. The +fires are particularly worth while, not so much for their heat which at +best cannot be expected to warm up the great outdoors much, but for the +smoke which prevents radiation. A line of smudges such as campers use to +ward off the mosquito would spread a pall of smoke over an orchard +efficaciously. A snowstorm, the soft fluffy sort that falls in April or +May, can do much less damage to vegetation than a severe frost.</p> + +<p>Temperatures are much lower on the ground than even six feet above the +grass. Naturally these temperatures are those that really influence most +vegetation and in England temperatures on the grass are given in the +weather report with the ordinary observations, being as much as six or +eight degrees lower on clear nights.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_115" id="Page_115">[Pg 115]</a></span>In some of the hot, dry countries, such as Arabia and Egypt, most of the +moisture that they receive falls in the form of dew. Falls, of course, is +a loose expression as the dew forms and does not fall, being different +from the minute particles of fog. The fog particles in suspension in the +air are estimated to be as small as 1-180th of an inch. When they grow to +1-80th of an inch in diameter they commence to fall. Fogs are chiefly +caused by the soil being warmer than the air above it; the vapor on rising +condenses and becomes visible. In the spring and fall currents of air blow +over rivers at different temperatures and the result is a fog. One does +not have a fog in the desert.</p> + +<p>There are places in the ocean with cold and warm currents with the air +above them correspondingly different where fog is of almost constant +occurrence. The Gulf Stream off the Grand Banks of Newfoundland has a +temperature of 78 degrees, while the water on the Banks is 45 degrees so +that fogless days are rare along the line of meeting.</p> + +<p>Frost is known in every part of our country, many localities in the +plateau section being exposed to it every month of the year. The thin air +and cloudless skies of the altitudes make radiation very easy and the +daily variation of <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_116" id="Page_116">[Pg 116]</a></span>temperature is much wider than along the humid coasts. +Those who have never looked into frost conditions throughout our country +will be surprised to read the warnings of the Weather Bureau.</p> + +<p>From the station at Pensacola, Florida (frost-proof Florida!), comes this +statement: “Vegetables are subject to damage by frost during all seasons +of the year.”</p> + +<p>Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, “Frost is likely to damage fruit or other crops +in May and September.”</p> + +<p>Phœnix, Arizona, “Frost is likely to do damage in December, February, +and March.”</p> + +<p>Baker City, Oregon, “Fruit and other crops are most liable to damage by +frost in April, May, June, September, and October.”</p> + +<p>Kalispell, Montana, “Frost damage for fruit, May 15th to July 10th; for +grain, June 25th to August 1st.”</p> + +<p>Montgomery, Alabama, “During March, April, and May fruit and early +vegetables are subject to damage by frost.”</p> + + +<p> </p> +<p class="center">THE THUNDERSTORM EXPOSED</p> + +<p>Probably nothing in the world causes more terror than a flash of +lightning. In an <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_117" id="Page_117">[Pg 117]</a></span>able-bodied thunderstorm playing about a city there are +several dozen flashes, and every one of them brings trepidation, fright, +or positive terror to thousands of human beings,—oftenest women, +sometimes men, and occasionally children. Yet probably there is no alarm +in the world so ill-founded.</p> + +<p>Thunderstorms play pretty generally over our three million square miles +with their hundred million population. Yet lightning picks out of this +crowd only three hundred people a year who are foolish enough to be +killed. That is, only three persons in each million to be sacrificed to +the most astounding and beautiful display in the world, a mere handful +compared to the mounds of motor car victims or to the 33,068 deaths a year +attributable to railroads and the perils of track-walking.</p> + +<p>The trouble about the thunderstorm is that it does not lull one into the +sense of insecure repose. It is too obviously after one. If the thunder +were toned down a bit and the lightning a trifle duller the alliance might +claim its thousands, like the inconspicuous housefly, and never meet an +objection. But until the thunderstorm foregoes its bravado it will +continue to bully the ladies into hysterics.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_118" id="Page_118">[Pg 118]</a></span>Of course, there is always the sporting chance that you are one of the +three in your particular million to perish.</p> + +<p>But you can lessen the chance. You must not seek refuge under a tree. You +should not take doubtful shelter in a barn. And you had best not sit in a +draft by an open window if there is a tree just outside it. By these three +avenues most of the thoughtless three hundred (a year) invite their end.</p> + +<p>Trees that are tall and otherwise exposed are struck oftenest. The +electricity in the cloud and the electricity in the earth are always +endeavoring to combine. When this tendency becomes so strong that the +resistance of the intervening air is counteracted the electric discharge +between thundercloud and earth takes place. This happens most frequently +from some pointed thing as a steeple, a tree if they are good conductors. +Men and animals are sometimes charged with the electricity opposite to +that of the cloud. When the lightning is discharged, even at a distance, +the bodies revert rapidly from the electric to the natural state. This +return shock or concussion occasionally proves fatal.</p> + +<p>That is the reason that trees are such poor protectors from the storm’s +fury. Better a<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_119" id="Page_119">[Pg 119]</a></span> wet skin in the middle of a field than precarious dryness +under an oak or cherry or tall pine or almost any other tree. If it should +hail hard enough to stove in your head take to a beech or a small spruce.</p> + +<p>Barns are struck so often because the body of warm, dry air in them favors +the passage of electricity. Those who hide in barns are sometimes +cremated. After a severe thunderstorm in the Poconos I have seen as many +as three barns on fire at once.</p> + +<p>Open windows, porches, and exposure generally are safe, but not safest. +The cellar, that old stamping ground, is where instinct takes a few. Any +closed room on the side of a house away from trees is good enough. But the +risk of annihilation is so very small that one is repaid for taking it by +the spectacle. A great thunderstorm surpasses anything in nature in the +matter of architecture, coloring, directness, and surprise,—which, with +selection, comprise the essentials of art. Imagine the crowds that would +pay to wonder at the sight if a thunderstorm could be staged, say, at the +Hippodrome!</p> + +<p>Some hot morning, if you have time to watch, you may see a thunderstorm +born in the mountains. The warm, moist air flows up the mountainside and +the essential start is made. <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_120" id="Page_120">[Pg 120]</a></span>Cooling, this air first shows as a fluffy +cloud that soon grows harder in appearance and becomes tufted at the top. +Its little belly swells and grows blacker. It hovers over the valley. +Others add to it. Suddenly a sort of adolescent thunder is heard. The +tension has become too great. A definite consolidation is visible, a +fringe lowers, and a few drops of rain may reach you.</p> + +<p>The incipient storm moves off, and having started a whirl within itself, +increases, like a rumor, as it goes. Before it has moved beyond your +horizon it may have become a large patch of dark blue with billowy white +crests on the top, and underneath hangs a curtain of rain. Chances are +that it will not go far before encountering conditions that dispel it, but +it may cover half a dozen counties before nightfall. As a rule these +little heat thunderstorms do not amount to a great deal. They are +originated by local conditions and leave things pretty much as they found +them.</p> + +<p>But when a cyclone is passing in summer a series of thunderstorms or heavy +showers with some thunder frequently take place instead of the all day +winter rain. These thunderstorms mount up against the wind. Their clouds +are black. The word black is an indulgence of the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_121" id="Page_121">[Pg 121]</a></span> human weatherman +meaning, of course, any dark color,—a black sky would terrify the most +hardened of meteorologists.</p> + +<p>The cyclone winds come from the south or southeast just as they do in +winter, but this quarter may not bring the heaviest rainfall in summer. +There may be showers or even clear skies, but the day will be humid and +hot. A haze of cirro-stratus cloud will gradually overspread the sky from +the west, darkening into a blue from the original whitish or gray. +Lightning does not appear from the cirrus, but after the sky has grown +pretty dark a ridge or tumbled cloud will be seen low on the western +horizon. Meanwhile the wind will have died down.</p> + +<p>The lightning, at first only a faint glimmer, will have become more +frequent and noticeable. If it is striking at a distance of fifteen miles +the thunder will not be heard. As soon as the storm center, where the +heaviest rain and the electrical display are taking place, gets within the +fifteen-mile radius thunder will be heard to growl, and the tumbled +cumulus clouds which may have lain along the horizon for hours will begin +to approach. The storm will be upon you in ten minutes likely after the +arc of foreboding blue and white cottony cloud has begun its charge across +the sky. Light quickly fades<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_122" id="Page_122">[Pg 122]</a></span> from the heavens. The wind drops entirely. +Streaks of lightning burn downward.</p> + +<p>Behind the arc stretches a curtain of uniform blue or gray. If the gray is +lighter in places the rainfall will not be heavy. If the curtain is a +uniform blue a heavy rain is sure. If the bow of clouds can be seen to +tumble or is continuous and approaches fast the wind is certain to be +severe,—may be from 30 to 60 miles an hour for the first few minutes. +Sometimes a cloud of dust advancing before it demonstrates its force.</p> + +<p>This moment immediately before the storm breaks is the dramatic moment of +the entire cyclone. As in a tragedy, the interest has built up to this +supreme occasion, this knife thrust, from which interest recedes until +clear skies show that the play is over. From 12 to 36 hours is the usual +time required in winter. In summer the cyclone takes even longer to pass a +given point, but the period of rainfall, in which the winter storm’s +amount is often surpassed, may not last fifteen minutes. First the blow, +then a crash of thunder, and the rain in big drops, which lessen rapidly +in size as the whole world seems involved in the vast forces of the storm +center. Most of the precipitation occurs in the first fifteen minutes, +sometimes in the first five. A hearty storm will deliver an inch in<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_123" id="Page_123">[Pg 123]</a></span> short +order. Although the rain continues often for an hour and sometimes in the +storms that are attached to a well-defined cyclonic system there will be +two or three robust thunderstorms in succession, yet the first downpour is +usually the torrential one and the others die away until the conditions +that caused the outbreak have passed off. With the severer storms hail +falls.</p> + +<p>The general condition of the air after a thunderstorm is cooler, dryer, +and more invigorating than before. Ozone has been liberated, dust has been +washed from the air and vegetation. The surest sign of a continuation of +unsettled weather is the failure of the atmosphere to cool off. If the air +remains sultry and heavy and depressing another shower is due. In such +circumstances the wind will not have begun to blow with any great promise +from the west.</p> + +<p>A close, sultry morning is the best indication of a thunder-gust. The +large piles of cumulus clouds are called thunderheads for the very reason +that they almost always precede a thunderstorm. The heaviest electrical +disturbances have cirrus clouds a few hours in advance of them very much +as their winter relatives. A thunderstorm that does not cause the +barometer to fall considerably will not amount to a great deal.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_124" id="Page_124">[Pg 124]</a></span>At night the different kinds of lightning furnish a running commentary to +the storm. On calm evenings the sky will be cloudless, with perhaps the +exception of a low rim on the northern horizon. Yet flashes of lightning, +of course without thunder, may be seen illuminating that entire quadrant +of the sky. This is called heat lightning and is popularly supposed to be +the result of the heat only. As a matter of fact it is caused by a normal +thunderstorm that is operating below the horizon. Reflections from this +storm are shown on the rim of clouds, or if no clouds are visible, on the +bowl of the sky. If you see lightning be sure that there is a storm +somewhere.</p> + +<p>If this disembodied sort of lightning continues to flash from the western +sky it is quite possible that the storm will reach you. If it shows on the +northwest or north of you the chances are that the storm will be carried +around. If the wind is from the southwest and the lightning appears there +only the progress of the clouds will show whether the storm is pursuing +the normal track from the west and around you or whether it is edging up +toward you. One cannot be very well surprised by a thunderstorm of any +energy in camp as the lightning shows as much as two hours before the +storm breaks and<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_125" id="Page_125">[Pg 125]</a></span> the thunder gives fifteen minutes’ notice on most +occasions.</p> + +<p>The sort of lightning that spends itself illuminating the clouds in +serpents and willowy branches confines itself to the altitudes and is very +beautiful and harmless. It is accompanied by thunder that sounds hollow, +that rumbles over the sky, and usually does not end with the crash and +thud of the more vigorous variety. Such lightning and such thunder are +more often connected with the sort of storm that comes up very swiftly on +a western wind. It gives shorter warning than any other sort of +thunderstorm and is not connected with the cyclonic area. I have known +such a storm to manifest itself low in the west, approach, and break +within twenty minutes. Much wind results and not much rain, although the +temperature falls. Lightning with storms of this impromptu kind rarely +does any damage.</p> + +<p>But if the storm rises slowly against the wind, requiring an hour or two +or three to approach and break, the lightning will grow almost +continuously, some of the flashes being broad streamers cleaving the +western sky. It is this sort of lightning that does the damage. The +thunder, instead of rolling like an empty barrel, hits into a series of +concussions. If the lightning<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_126" id="Page_126">[Pg 126]</a></span> strikes an object nearby the crash is +rather appalling. There are several freak sorts of lightning such as the +ball form, which are rare.</p> + +<p>The approach of the center of disturbance may be gauged by the length of +time that elapses between flash and crash. In reality the thunder occurs +immediately after the discharge of electricity, but sound travels so +slowly, compared to light, that a minute may intervene between stroke and +clap. You may count the seconds, noticing the regular decrease, signifying +the nearing of the crisis. Soon a flash in front and a simultaneous peal +will show you that you are in the thick of things. The next bolt or two +may hit very close and you can appreciate what it means to be on the +firing line. Then the next river of fire with its detonation streams +behind you and you are saved.</p> + +<p>In a severe thunderstorm there are several centers, several nuclei that +shed destruction like great batteries and their progress over and beyond +you has its thrills. You may find the exact number of feet away that the +bolt hit by multiplying the number of seconds elapsing between the +lightning and thunder by 1120. But an easier way is to allow a mile for +every five seconds on the watch. One or two seconds, and you are pretty +near the center of the fray.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_127" id="Page_127">[Pg 127]</a></span>Lightning compresses the air, leaving a partial vacuum. The other air +rushing in to fill this partial vacuum forms the wave motion that produces +the noise. That is the whole why of thunder. The reason thunder rolls is +that the lightning is a series of discharges each of which gives rise to a +particular detonation. If lightning were but one discharge, the thunder +would be but one stupefying crash. Reflections from the clouds and from +layers of air of different densities and from the ground are agencies that +prolong the sound.</p> + +<p>Our atmosphere is never lacking in electricity. This electricity is always +positive in clear weather and sometimes negative in cloudy. Science +concludes, then, that negative electricity invariably indicates rain, +hail, or snow within a radius of forty miles.</p> + +<p>Moist air is a good conductor. Our powerful motors can now produce a spark +of electricity several feet long. But some of the flashes that shoot +across the sky in a big storm extend over five miles. The duration of the +flash varies from 1-300th of a second to a second. The reason that +lightning does not always pass imperially along a straight line is that +some air, either moister or warmer than the air around it, offers less +resistance. The lightning takes this<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_128" id="Page_128">[Pg 128]</a></span> line of least resistance along the +pathway of warmer or less dense air.</p> + +<p>Altitudes of thunderclouds vary. They may hover above the earth at 800 +feet. They may be a mile high. They have been observed on peaks of +mountains three miles high. Many other electrical phenomena are observed +in the mountains. The study of these will undoubtedly benefit meteorology +and perhaps go far to explain the unsolved problems of the Service.</p> + +<p>One kind of thunderstorm that is rather rare is that which arrives in +winter with the passage of an energetic cyclone. Often when the wind, +having been in the southeast for most of the storm, is passing around and +reaches the south or southwest the rainfall culminates in a deluge and +thunder is heard. One or two such storms are a winter’s complement. They +usually terminate the rainfall for that particular cyclone. I have never +heard of damage caused by these winter electrical storms, and they occur +only in exceptionally well-developed areas of low pressure.</p> + +<p>Lightning has many times been observed during heavy snow storms. I have +never heard any thunder with it. The discharge must have been very faint.</p> + +<p> </p> +<div class="bbox" style="width: 600px; height: 362px;"><img src="images/img06.jpg" alt="" /></div> +<p class="center">STRATUS</p> +<p class="center"><i>Courtesy of Richard F. Warren</i></p> + +<p class="note">Stratus is merely lifted fog in a horizontal form, the lowest of all, and +the simplest as regards structure. It means neither rain nor snow and the +apparent clearness of the blue above it would indicate clear weather to +come. But through the break in the stratus near the horizon shows a cloud +of firmer texture, which is less reassuring. Stratus over the land in +winter takes the appearance of long bolsters of gray through which a pale +blue sky shines. Such clouds may blanket the sky for days without causing +a drop of rain. If they show a tendency to glaze over expect snow or rain, +but not in large quantities.</p> +<p> </p> + +<p>The fascination that a thunderstorm has for<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_129" id="Page_129">[Pg 129]</a></span> many people is explained +partially by the fact that one sees the whole process from beginning to +end. The officials of the Weather Bureau have this privilege as regards +cyclones. It is their business and pleasure to watch the setting up of +these vast storms, to follow them on their journey. It is small wonder +then that they find the spectacle fascinating.</p> + + +<p> </p> +<p class="center">THE TORNADO</p> + +<p>The birds, the flowers, and the tornadoes are all busiest in spring. And +the tornadoes probably make the largest impression.</p> + +<p>A tornado is merely a whirl of air, caused, as are all the other whirls, +by a striking difference in temperature in adjacent areas. A tornado is a +local and restricted example of the same thing that a cyclone is. But a +tornado rarely crosses more than a single state; a cyclone strides +continents. A tornado lasts, in one place, about a minute; a cyclone +affects the weather for three days. A tornado never survives the night; a +cyclone plods on for a week. And yet if you are betting on destruction put +your money on the tornado. What it lacks in the realms of space and time +it makes up in intensity. Its sting is fatal.</p> + +<p>Tornadoes occur chiefly in the spring because<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_130" id="Page_130">[Pg 130]</a></span> the temperature changes are +greatest then and it is from these that the tornado sucks its nourishment. +Over the plains, for example, a limited area is abnormally heated by a +local cause. Abnormal cold comes in contact with the abnormal heat. The +great difference in pressure results in a spiral as it did in the cyclone, +only in a very small spiral, and once begun its energy is +self-aggravating. The whole thing moves off toward the northeast attended +by the black cloud of its condensation. From the black cloud a funnel like +an elephant’s trunk sways back and forth, now touching the ground and now +escaping it. The black cloud has been in the southwest for some time +probably before it has commenced to move. The day has been very +oppressive. The sun rose rather coppery, in all likelihood. As the black +cloud with the swaying funnel nears a roaring is heard. Darkness falls. +The roar increases.... Instantly it is over.</p> + +<p>Now that you’ve been through a tornado you know how it feels,—almost. +After the funnel passes hail falls, lightning flashes through the +lessening murk. Heavy rain succeeds, and if you’re alive you go out and +rescue the perishing.</p> + +<p>The wind velocity in the path of a tornado is enormous,—anything up to +500 miles an <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_131" id="Page_131">[Pg 131]</a></span>hour,—but no instruments have been devised to withstand +the strain. Varying pressures are responsible for the destruction. As the +funnel passes over a house where the normal air pressure is about 2,000 +pounds to the square foot it removes 1,500 pounds for an instant. +Naturally the outside walls cannot withstand this enormous inside out +pressure and the house explodes like a projectile. Only under such +conditions could the vagaries of matter,—straws piercing logs and +chickens bereft of every feather—be perhaps not explained but pardoned.</p> + +<p>Stories of any degree of incredibility crop up after each tornado, often +with accompanying photographs as proof. People are plastered with mud, +pianos are deposited in neighboring lots, babies are hung up unhurt by +their clothes in tree-tops, and often one person is killed and another +nearby escapes unhurt, Bible-fashion.</p> + +<p>Tornadoes may form almost anywhere, but they are never found on the +immediate Pacific coast. They are most common in the Mississippi Valley, +are rather common in the Gulf States, and have occurred throughout most of +the East at one time or another.</p> + +<p>Since there is no way of stopping them the next best thing is to know the +conditions that<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_132" id="Page_132">[Pg 132]</a></span> make for their formation. If the Weather Bureau predicts +a cold wave for sections of the country where the weather is already +abnormally warm the line of meeting will probably produce a tornado +somewhere. The officials, however, advise you not to worry until you see +the intensely black cloud in the southwest trailing its funnel. See where +this funnel is tending and run the other way. All tornadoes progress from +the southwest to the northeast. Bad as they are, this makes them far less +terrifying than if they whipped back and forth over a town or chased you +around the pasture. If you happen to be in the house, take to the cellar, +the southwest corner of it. If you can’t escape lie face down to the +ground.</p> + +<p>The only tornado that I have ever witnessed was an undeveloped one in +England, and a bit lethargic compared to those of the Prairie States. But +even this blew an entire train off the track. It had all the other +appurtenances of a tornado, the hail, the twisted trees, the narrow +southwest to northeast path. The fact that the houses had only corners of +their roofs blown off showed that as a tornado it was distinctly +second-grade and without power to explode.</p> + +<p>England, shortly after, was raided by three<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_133" id="Page_133">[Pg 133]</a></span> water-spouts. These phenomena +are caused by precisely the same conditions as are the tornadoes. They +form over the sea, and the funnel is composed of water. They take +considerable bodies of water up into the skies and torrential rains result +over adjacent districts. If I remember correctly, two of the English +water-spouts broke against the cliffs and the other, moving inland in +modified form, gave Gloucester a nine-inch rain. Ships have been known to +fire cannon at these spouts. If one hit a boat directly damage might be +caused, but they have little of the destructive force of the tornado.</p> + +<p>As our country builds up the destruction from this most powerful of all +phenomena is likely to increase. Bureau warnings over phones may result in +the saving of some lives; cellars will undoubtedly be built in the +principal zones. But the problem is an interesting one, for unlike the +waterspout, cannon cannot be employed to shatter an emptiness that stalks +the more malignantly the emptier it is.</p> + + +<p> </p> +<p class="center">THE HURRICANE</p> + +<p>The tropical hurricane is undoubtedly nature’s mightiest exhibit. The +hurricane is the cyclone par excellence. It does not differ from our +ordinary weekly cyclone in the essentials of<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_134" id="Page_134">[Pg 134]</a></span> wind rotation or pressures +or rainfall; but it does differ in place of birth, in its course, and +chiefly in its intensity.</p> + +<p>The genuine hurricane is a West Indian production. It is generally cradled +in those islands south and east of Jamaica and Cuba. It is nursed by the +trade-winds. The first notice of its birth is an alteration in these +winds, which are among the most regular observances on our planet. An +extensive formation of cirrus clouds spreads over the sky and the +barometer, which has been stationary for some days, edges off and begins a +long and gradual fall. Great rollers are noticed for a day or two before +the winds rise. A hurricane moves slowly.</p> + +<p>This tropical organization is superior in depth to our shallow, disc-like, +continental cyclone which is one and rarely over two miles thick. The +hurricane rears its head three, four, and even five miles high. Instead, +too, of dissipating its force over thousands of miles at once it is only a +few hundred miles in diameter. Its center moves methodically along at the +not very impressive speed of fifteen miles an hour, while our cyclones +hurry along at thirty. But the hurricane is thorough. The wind about its +center reaches a velocity of 120 miles an hour. This velocity has never +yet been attained on the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_135" id="Page_135">[Pg 135]</a></span> surface of the earth by our trans-continental +cyclone.</p> + +<p>Our cyclone always has an eastward trend; the hurricane has a parabolic +course. It begins by moving west on the trades, drifting and dealing +destruction to the banana and sugar plantations of Jamaica. It enters the +Gulf of Mexico, and since it is then pretty much out of the influence of +the trades it curves to the right and begins to act like any other storm +by heading directly for the St. Lawrence. If it passes out through the +Florida straits it never reaches the St. Lawrence but speeds up the coast +and out to sea, usually at Hatteras to follow the shipping routes across +the North Atlantic.</p> + +<p>But if it has become so involved in the Gulf of Mexico that it cannot +escape to sea again, it comes up through the Gulf States and on toward New +England. Fortunately as it goes inland its intensity diminishes because it +has not so much energy-giving moisture to draw from. Also its sphere of +action widens, its embrace is less mighty, its characteristics more those +of an ordinary continental cyclone. It manages, however, to deliver gales +of 80 miles an hour along the coastal plain, increasing to 100 at the +exposed places such as Hatteras and Block Island.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_136" id="Page_136">[Pg 136]</a></span>The intensest hours of a hurricane are those when its course is changing +from westward to eastward. Enormous rainfalls accompany these storms, +amounting to six inches in some instances. Since one inch of rain amounts +to 100 tons per acre, and 64,000 tons to a square mile one can imagine the +great amount of evaporation that has taken place to so saturate the air as +to drench vast territories to such an extent.</p> + +<p>While scarcely a year goes by without one of these West Indian hurricanes +distinguishing itself on our shores the one that visited Galveston in 1904 +eclipsed all. It chose to turn in the vicinity of the city. The gale +increased to over 100 miles an hour and the wind gauge then blew away. The +waters of the Bay were heaped up and three thousand lives were lost in the +flood and wreck of flying houses. This peculiar storm did not turn +northeast at once but ascended the Mississippi, turning at the Lakes and +proceeding down the St. Lawrence after having spent a week in our country.</p> + +<p>The listless doldrums have sent us 121 of these storms in the last +generation. June has seen 8, July 5, August 28, September 40, and October +40.</p> + +<p>Sea-yarners have seized upon the hurricane to energize many a flagging +chapter, and particularly<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_137" id="Page_137">[Pg 137]</a></span> have they emphasized the eye of the storm. The +eye is that vortex where contending winds neutralize each other into a +calm, where the sun shines out through the scud, where the waves, relieved +of the great pressure, leap upward in wild disorder. Then the center +passes and the wind flings itself upon the unlucky bark from the opposite +quarter. Its first onslaught is always represented as being the fiercest +of the whole storm and gradually lessening as the center drives farther +away. This is true in the same way that the first attack of the +thunderstorm is usually the fiercest, both being when the pressure begins +to rise. This savage change to the northwest is naturally the hardest of +all for the ships to bear as they must steady at once against the severest +blast instead of gradually bracing for its culmination. In no department +of meteorology has fiction adhered so closely to the facts as in the +sea-rover accounts of the hurricane.</p> + +<p>But in real life there is very little excuse for the vessel to be caught +anywhere near the disastrous center of the storm. Indeed, for generations +sea-captains have known how to escape the deadly eye. By watching the +barometer and noticing in which direction the wind is working round they +can tell the course to a nicety<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_138" id="Page_138">[Pg 138]</a></span> and estimate its speed. Then the wise +ones run the other way for even the <i>Olympics</i> and <i>Imperators</i> of the sea +are cowed by the might of the West Indian.</p> + +<p>The typhoons of the West Pacific are similar manifestations.</p> + +<p>The hurricane moves off from its birthplace so slowly that our Weather +Bureau has an opportunity to size it up, to chart its probable course, and +to warn shipping interests. The ship-owners, as a class, appreciate the +service of the Bureau and obey its warnings. Vessels with cargoes of a +total value of $30,000,000 were known to have been detained in port on the +Atlantic coast by the Bureau’s warnings of a single hurricane. Now that a +much vaster commerce will steam through these dangerous waters toward the +Panama Canal the warnings will assume an even greater importance.</p> + +<p>The best description of a hurricane that it has been my fortune to read is +in a story entitled “Chita,” one of the remarkable fictions of Lafcadio +Hearn. As truthfully as a scientist and with great beauty of style he has +pictured the long days of burning sun, the foreboding calm, the thickening +haze, the ominous increasing swell of the ocean, a breathless night with +the lightning glowing from between piling<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_139" id="Page_139">[Pg 139]</a></span> towers of cloud, the startling +suddenness of the wind’s attack, its fury, the hissing rain, the shrill +crescendo of the gale.</p> + + +<p> </p> +<p class="center">CLOUDBURST</p> + +<p>It is the American tendency to exaggerate. We call every snowstorm a +blizzard, every breeze a gale, every shower a cloudburst. In our generous +vocabulary it never rains but it pours. Consequently if we, in the East, +ever had a real blizzard or a real cloudburst we should be at a +considerable loss to find words for an unprofane description. I do not +know how they manage out West where these things occur.</p> + +<p>A genuine cloudburst must be an amazing spectacle. It is caused by a +furious updraft of wind keeping a rainstorm in suspense until so much +water has accumulated that it has to let go all at once and the +accumulation descends like a wet blanket.</p> + +<p>This phenomenon is staged in the mountains; most often in the Rockies +where melting snow and desert-hot ravines provide the necessary extremes +of temperature. Wind blowing up a mountain-side can maintain considerable +force,—so much that a man cannot possibly walk against it. Black thunder +clouds brew on the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_140" id="Page_140">[Pg 140]</a></span> peaks. Suddenly the collapse, and the person who tells +the story afterward finds himself struggling in a torrent that a minute +before had been a dry gulch. The moral of the story seems to be that if +you are camping in the mountains and there is a strong upstream wind +blowing and the clouds darken about the hill-tops and the thunder mumbles +then don’t make your bed in the creek-bottom lands. The high water marks +of former freshets, but not of cloudbursts, show on the side of the +stream.</p> + +<p>Even in the less impulsive East a couple of inches of rain make a +surprising rise in a little creek.</p> + + +<p> </p> +<p class="center">THE HALO</p> + +<p>The halo is a luminous circle around the moon or the sun. It is caused by +the refraction of light passing through moisture, which at the usual +height is in the form of ice-crystals. The halo when complete consists of +two large circles whose diameters are constant, 45 and 92 degrees. Then +there are often other arches in contact. At each point of contact occurs a +parhelion which is a mock sun of brilliant colors and called a sun-dog. +Since the sun-dog is brighter than the other parts of the halo it +sometimes appears when the rest of the halo cannot<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_141" id="Page_141">[Pg 141]</a></span> be seen. Sun-dogs hunt +in pairs or fours. If the halo is colored the red is on the inside. When +the colors are caused by diffraction instead of refraction, the red is on +the outside of the prismatic ring and the halo is called a corona.</p> + +<p>Having now satisfied the demands of science all that can be forgotten +except that the halo around either sun or moon means excess moisture in +the atmosphere. The wide halos are seen in the high cirrus clouds 25, 36, +48 hours in advance of a cyclone. At first the ring is very wide and faint +with several stars in it. If the storm is advancing rapidly the halo +brightens and narrows and the stars fade. This is proof to show that the +proverb stating that the number of stars inside the ring is a forecast of +the number of days of storm is sheer nonsense. For presently the ring +closes and the stars disappear which would show according to the proverb +that the storm had changed its mind and would cut down the number of days +from several to none.</p> + +<p>The moon grows paler. The light that it casts upon the earth is eerie at +this stage. Within a few hours the cocoon of mist is completely woven +about the moon. The circle has closed. Snow or rain begins within a few +hours after the moon has entirely disappeared. If it<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_142" id="Page_142">[Pg 142]</a></span> does not so begin it +shows that the process of increasing humidity is a very slow one and the +storm center is probably passing far to one side of the observer. Also if +the snow begins before the light of the moon is entirely suppressed the +disturbance is a shallow one and the storm will be light.</p> + +<p>When the halo is actually a corona (red outside) the approach of the storm +can be gauged by the rapidity with which the circle grows smaller. For a +decrease in diameter denotes that the size of the moisture drops is +increasing and therefore the storm is approaching. As a matter of fact the +corona will have disappeared long before the time for rain. Still it is +useful to know that if the corona increases in size the conditions are +clearing. With the halo the reverse holds. For when the clouds are very +high the halo looks small, and high clouds imply swifter winds and a +greater distance from the storm center.</p> + +<p>The Zuñi Indians who have an eye for the picturesque as well as for the +truth state the chief fact about haloes happily: “When the sun is in his +house it will rain soon.” Another saying of theirs anent cumulus clouds +holds for our country as well as for theirs: “When the clouds rise in +terraces of white, soon will the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_143" id="Page_143">[Pg 143]</a></span> country of the corn-priests be pierced +with the arrows of rain.”</p> + +<p>There are many little observations which the man who has kept the corner +of his eye open may profit by and yet which are rather difficult to +express in type. Who could describe an egg for instance whose springtide +of youth was far behind and yet was not quite ready for the discard! In +nature it is the fleeting moment of transition, the half-tones of the +border that are so hard to catch, so difficult to portray, and yet so very +important not to miss if one is to become sure. There follow some of the +baldest and most communicable half-facts about the weather that should be +used oftener to bolster up some opinion gleaned from more positive sources +than to mould one in their own strength.</p> + +<p>Moisture in the atmosphere helps sight to a certain extent. For when the +air is full of moisture its temperature tends to become equalized, +obliterating irregularities which would otherwise reflect the vibrations +producing sight and sound. So if one hears better or sees better on a +certain day it augurs a moister atmosphere,—an auxiliary sign if there is +a view that you are fond of looking at many times a day. In the city, +alas, clearer vision on one day than another means merely that less coal +is being used. But<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_144" id="Page_144">[Pg 144]</a></span> in camp there is very often a perceptible difference +in one’s seeing ability even on days that could all be classed as clear.</p> + +<p>Another thing that the haunter of the woods may notice is that his +smelling capacity is increased before a storm. The increase of humidity +which precedes a rain buoys up odors and depresses smoke. Even in dry +weather if you will stroll by a marsh you will notice how rank the +vegetation smells and how the smells float in layers in the air strata of +different humidity. One’s sense of smell is a very slender thread on which +to hang a storm, however.</p> + +<p>Fires burn more briskly in dry air than in moist, but to tell the +difference (if you can’t feel it) you must be very sure that your wood is +as dry on one day as on another.</p> + +<p>Before a rain many plants close their flowers or shift their leaves. The +dandelion, pimpernel, red clover, silver maple are good examples of this, +but they would not be of much use in the North Woods. The closing, too, +takes place only a few hours before rain and is merely confirmation of the +signals rendered more adequately by clouds and winds.</p> + +<p>Bugs and flies are particularly annoying before a storm and it is +surprising that the spider should not take advantage of this to get a +meal.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_145" id="Page_145">[Pg 145]</a></span> But spiders are cautious and they never spin a web on the grass, at +least on the day that brings a storm. The insects do not fly so high on +these weather-breeding days and consequently the birds that feed on them +fly lower. The chimney swifts are a particularly good guide to the +different altitudes at which insects fly.</p> + +<p>The stars are on a par with bugs as weather guides, although there are +many proverbs that grant them much. One circumstance should not be +neglected, however, and that is that wind mixes air and when air is well +mixed atmospheric inequalities are less disturbing to vision. Hence when +one can see the stars and the moon well wind currents are oftenest the +cause. Even if it is not blowing on earth these wind currents may yet be +blowing above to reach the earth later. In this way cold waves arrive. +There is an old proverb about this condition, applying it to the moon, +“Sharp horns do threaten windy weather.”</p> + +<p>But the stars are of second rate importance because they are so soon +obscured. If you can’t see them it is cloudy, but you do not know what +kind of cloud it is. If only the brightest show, a veil of cirrus is +arriving. A dark sky with only a few dim stars is an omen of storms. If +the stars twinkle it is because the varying <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_146" id="Page_146">[Pg 146]</a></span>currents of the upper air are +in juxtaposition. If they twinkle while the northwest wind is on it is a +sign of colder weather,—not because they are twinkling but because of the +northwest wind.</p> + +<p>In the days when almanacs were the sole guides to the weather a man with a +sense of humor, Butler by name, got out one and dedicated it to “Torpid +Liver and Inflammatory Rheumatism, the Most Insistent Weather Prophets +Known to Suffering Mortals.” Rheumatism is following the almanac to the +scrap heap, and it would be harder for a camper to guess what a torpid +liver was like than to forecast the weather, yet for the majority of +“suffering mortals” there is still much truth in the amiable observation +of Mr. Butler,</p> + +<p class="poem">“As old sinners have old points<br /> +O’ the compass in their bones and joints.”</p> + + + +<p> </p><p> </p> +<hr style="width: 50%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_147" id="Page_147">[Pg 147]</a></span></p> +<h2><a name="CHAPTER_V" id="CHAPTER_V"></a>CHAPTER V</h2> +<p class="title">THE BAROMETER</p> + +<p class="dropcap"><span class="caps">Whatever</span> the foregoing chapters may imply as to the whole world going +camping the fact is that the woods are still, unfortunately, for the few. +The woodsman must yield gracefully to the suburbanite,—in numbers.</p> + +<p>But the weather is for everybody. To be sure the sunrise that talks so +confidentially to the hunter of the coming day does not exist for the +commuter. But the coming day does, even though the things it means are +essentially different. To the hunter with his seasoned clothes and +well-earned health a rain is only of concern in so much as it affects the +business of the day; personally it is of small moment. But to the commuter +what does the weather mean? Dollars and cents, of course. His business +goes on, but to his person one unexpected shower == the cost of pressing a +suit; one thorough soaking == one doctor’s bill. For you cannot expect<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_148" id="Page_148">[Pg 148]</a></span> +the man to throw off a chill who can quiet his conscience on the matter of +daily exercise by watering the geraniums and reading the newspaper.</p> + +<p>Weather wisdom is necessary for the hunter; for the commuter it pays.</p> + +<p>The hunter had to rely on local weather signs. The commuter can go him one +better by investing $10 (how finance will creep in!) in a little aneroid +barometer. The local weather signs were good for twelve hours at the +longest. The barometer is a faithful instrument that adds another twelve +hours to a man’s knowledge. Half a day, or even a day before any local +sign of changing wind or growing cloud appears the barometer is on the +job. It will register in Philadelphia the news of a disturbance +approaching the Mississippi. So sensitive is it that it is the slave to +every wave of the great air ocean.</p> + +<p>The barometer gauges for the eye the amount of atmosphere that is piled +above one. If the amount is normal and at sea-level the instrument will +measure 30.00 inches. This air pressure is equivalent to a column of water +30 feet high. As this would make unwieldy prognosticators the scientists +use mercury instead, which requires a column less than three feet long. +And for<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_149" id="Page_149">[Pg 149]</a></span> general purposes this is supplanted by the handy little aneroid +(which means “without fluid”). This is so fixed that the pressure of the +air influences the upper surface of a vacuum chamber, balanced perfectly +between this pressure and a main spring. This action is transmitted to an +index hand moving across the dial marked into fractions of inches after +the manner of the recognized standard, the mercurial barometer.</p> + +<p>When the warm moist light air of a cyclone invades a locality the pressure +is partially removed, the vacuum chamber is not pressed so hard and the +dial hand or the mercury subsides. When the cold, dry, heavy air of the +anticyclone lumbers in more pressure is applied and the mercury, or the +dial hand, climbs. So a falling barometer means a storm, a rising one fair +weather.</p> + +<p>That is a generality that glitters. If that were all there was to it +weather officials would have a sinecure. But each cyclone varies in size, +intensity, and rate of progress. Some do not advance for days. Therefore +there has grown up a pretty large body of information as each storm has +had to be watched and the barometric movements recorded. The most +important variations follow:</p> + +<p>Remembering that 30.00 inches is sea-level<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_150" id="Page_150">[Pg 150]</a></span> normal, if the barometer is +steady at 30.10 or 30.20 the weather will remain fair as long as the +steadiness continues, and on the turn, if the fall proceeds slowly with +the wind from a westerly direction fair to partly cloudy weather with +slowly rising temperature will follow for two days.</p> + +<p>If the barometer rises rapidly from 30.10 the fall will be equally rapid +and rain or snow may be expected within a couple of days. Since the +depressions of the atmosphere tend to a certain regularity about the +center of the storm it follows that the reactions will follow the actions +in similar manner,—a long rise portending a long fall and a variable +glass meaning unsettled conditions.</p> + +<p>The barometer does not rise with wind from an easterly direction unless a +shift is imminent. In winter the air is so much colder over the land than +over the sea that the air brought in by an easterly wind is soon +condensed. Consequently with winds from the south or southeast, even if +the barometer is 30.20 or 30.10 and falling slowly rain usually arrives +(and rain of course is meant to include snow whenever the mercury is below +the freezing point) within 24 hours. If the fall is rapid there may be +precipitation<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_151" id="Page_151">[Pg 151]</a></span> within 12 hours, and the wind will rapidly increase and the +temperature rise.</p> + +<p>If the wind is from the east or northeast and the barometer 30.10 or above +and falling slowly it means rain within 24 hours in winter. In summer if +the wind is light rain may not fall for a day or so. If the fall is rapid +in winter rain with increasing winds will often set in when the barometer +begins its fall and the wind gets to a point a little east of north.</p> + +<p>If the barometer is 30.00 or below and falling slowly with northeast to +southeast winds the storm will continue 24 to 48 hours. If the barometer +falls rapidly the wind will be high with rain and the change to rising +barometer with clearing and colder will probably come within 20 to 30 +hours.</p> + +<p>If the barometer is below 30.00 but rising slowly the clear weather will +last several days.</p> + +<p>If the barometer is 29.80 or below and falling rapidly with winds south of +east a severe storm is at hand to be followed within 24 hours by clearing +and colder. Under the same conditions but with northeast winds there will +occur heavy snow followed by a cold wave.</p> + +<p>If these promises do not always bear fruit it is because they will have +been interrupted by an<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_152" id="Page_152">[Pg 152]</a></span> unseen shifting of the atmospheric weights. But +the barometer will record them. A rapid rise may be checked in ascent and +the instrument may fluctuate like a stock-ticker. Its tale is of very +unsettled weather conditions and consequently no particular brand of +weather will last for very long at a time.</p> + +<p>A sudden rise of the barometer may bring its gale of wind as well as a +sudden fall. But the tendency will be toward clearing and much colder.</p> + +<p>A fall of the barometer on a west wind is not common. It means rain. A +rise on a south wind means fair. A low barometer and a cold south wind +mean a change to west with squalls for a while. On the other hand, a high +barometer with warmer weather means a shift of the wind to southerly +quarters and an imminent fall.</p> + +<p>If the barometer rises fast and the temperature does, too, look for +another storm. This is often noticed in summer.</p> + +<p>There is a slight daily oscillation of the mercury, which, if other things +are steady, registers highest at 10 <span class="smcaplc">A. M.</span> and 10 <span class="smcaplc">P. M.</span> and lowest at 4 <span class="smcaplc">A. +M.</span> and 4 <span class="smcaplc">P. M.</span></p> + +<p>If this data confuses bear in mind the simple ordinary progress of the +barometer in the usual storm: First, it will stand steady for a day or<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_153" id="Page_153">[Pg 153]</a></span> so +at any point between 30.10 and 30.50. Then the glass will begin (for most +storms) to fall gradually. As the center nears the fall hastens. After the +lowest point has been reached a slight rise will be followed by another +slight fall and then the final long rise will commence. The rain begins +and ceases at different stages for different storms, depending upon the +wind’s velocity and direction.</p> + +<p>For every 900 feet of altitude the height of the mercury is about one inch +less. Do not complain that your barometer is inaccurate if you are living +up in the mountains and your readings are not the same as the weather +reports which are reduced to sea level. All the figures given in this +chapter are for sea level and if your house is 1900 feet above you must +move the copper hand of your aneroid 1.95 inches from the pressure hand. +If the pressure hand would read 28.05 the adjustable copper hand would +read 30.00 which is the sea level reading.</p> + +<p>One good thing to remember is that a barometer falls lower for high winds +than for heavy rain. A fall of two- or three-tenths of an inch in four +hours brings a gale. In the ordinary gale the wind blows hardest when the +barometer begins its rise from a very low point.</p> + +<p>In summer a suddenly falling barometer <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_154" id="Page_154">[Pg 154]</a></span>foretells a thunderstorm, and if +the corresponding rise does not at once take place the unsettled +conditions will continue with probably another thunderstorm. If you see +the thunderstorm first, that is, if the barometer is not affected by the +approaching black cloud you may be sure that the storm will amount to +nothing.</p> + +<p>The man in the fields or along the shore has many natural barometers in +animal life. But these natural barometers only corroborate; they do not +foretell, at least very long before. Some are useful at times and among +these the birds are foremost. The observant Zuñis have incorporated this +in one of their pretty proverbs, “When chimney swallows circle and call +they speak of rain.” As a matter of fact the swallows are circling most of +the time after insects. If they are flying high it is because the bugs are +flying high and that is because there is no danger of rain. As the rain +nears the air gets moister, the bugs and the birds fly lower.</p> + +<p>Whether they do this because their instinct is to avoid a wetting or +because the lighter atmosphere of a cyclone makes flying more difficult, +particularly at altitudes, I do not know. For weather purposes it is +enough to watch their comparative levels. Wild geese are excellent<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_155" id="Page_155">[Pg 155]</a></span> signs, +I am told, but it would be a dry country that waits for a sight of them +for its rain.</p> + +<p>Bees localize before a storm and will not swarm. Flies crowd upon the +screens of houses when humidity is high, possibly because the appetizing +odors from within are buoyed afar by the heavy air. Cuckoos seek the +higher ground in fair weather and disappear into bottom lands before a +rain. Although they are called rain-crows they are heard in all weathers.</p> + +<p>Smoke is as good an evidence of barometric pressure as anything except the +instrument itself. On clear, still days it will mount; on humid days +without wind it will cling to the hill. There is that difference. But it +takes skill and many comparisons to gauge its angles in the wind. It +becomes a test in observation and finally rewards one by becoming an +excellent sign not only of air texture but of the direction of its +currents.</p> + +<p>No reference to barometers would be complete without mentioning spiders. +They show a most delicate apprehension of changing conditions. If the day +is to be fine and without wind they will run out long threads and be +rather active. If the rain is nearing they strengthen their webs, shorten +the filaments and sit dully in<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_156" id="Page_156">[Pg 156]</a></span> the center. Fresh webs on the lawn insure +a clear day. But for the commuter, whose time is money, there is little +leisure to consider the spider.</p> + +<p>As a natural result of the variation in altitude affecting the barometer +the words which are printed on the face become entirely useless. In some +places it would be impossible for the needle to point higher than “Very +Stormy.” Even at sea level a sudden fall to “Fair” would cause a rain, +much to the indignation of the person who thought that he had purchased a +self-registering weather prophet. Disregard the words but watch the needle +and you will never be surprised at what the weather is doing next.</p> + + + +<p> </p><p> </p> +<hr style="width: 50%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_157" id="Page_157">[Pg 157]</a></span></p> +<h2><a name="CHAPTER_VI" id="CHAPTER_VI"></a>CHAPTER VI</h2> +<p class="title">THE SEASONS</p> + +<p class="dropcap"><span class="caps">Too</span> great emphasis cannot be laid upon the futility, at present, of trying +to forecast the weather for more than a very few days in advance. Long +range efforts are not made by the Bureau because with its present limited +knowledge of the factors that control seasons and with the present limited +facilities for collecting data the process of looking into next month has +not been perfected, and the attempt to investigate next winter’s weather +proves scientifically impossible.</p> + +<p>As usual, fakers step in where science fears to tread. With goose-bones +(not their own) and hickory nuts they prophesy with all their might. And +if their prophecies come true, as sometimes they must, there is wide +rejoicing in the newspapers and the cause of science is set back by just +so much. But science cannot be thwarted in the end and every year new +discoveries are made, new speculations proved true or forever false, and +some time, doubtless, the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_158" id="Page_158">[Pg 158]</a></span> weather will be predicted from year to year +with the same 85% accuracy with which the 36 hour forecast is now made. +Experimenting is worth the little that it costs, too, for to know when the +summer is to be dry or wet, hot or cold will be a boon to everybody and to +the farmer most of all.</p> + +<p>One conclusion has already been reached by officials in the Weather Bureau +and scientists generally. It has been decided by long search through +creditable records, painstaking comparisons of averages coupled with the +most accurate investigations for half a century, that, on the basis of ten +years, our seasons do not change. That is, counting the decade as a unit, +our weather keeps to the same level of efficiency through the centuries.</p> + +<p>This statement comes always as a blow. It always provokes argument and +citations of grandmother’s blizzards. There is a great and universal +hesitation in believing that our weather is as good to-day as it used to +be. The good old times when there was a general debauch of snow and you +could skate all winter on anything but the Atlantic Ocean certainly appear +no more. As a matter of fact there has been a change, but it has been in +our memories. In grandmother’s youth the trains,—if they had trains +then,—doubtless were stalled by a big snow for then<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_159" id="Page_159">[Pg 159]</a></span> they did not have +rotary plows. In father’s day they may have had an unbroken winter of +sleighing. We couldn’t now; sleighs are extinct. But in our time, in fact +every year, some record is being broken and the records go back a +respectable length of time.</p> + +<p>For example in Philadelphia the most accurate records made by standard +instruments have been kept for 43 years. During this time the highest wind +velocity was recorded in 1878 (75 miles an hour). The greatest rainfall in +24 hours occurred in 1898 (5.89 inches). The lowest temperature was +registered in 1899 (6 degrees below zero); the highest in 1901 (103 +degrees). The greatest number of thunderstorms for any one year took place +in 1905 when we had 51. As late as 1909 the heaviest snowfall ever +recorded at this station, amounting to 21 inches, occurred. And just a few +weeks ago (April 3rd, 1915) it snowed 19 inches in half as many hours. All +these items do not indicate a climate decreasing in virility very swiftly.</p> + +<p>But there is more evidence yet that Philadelphia is experiencing the same +varieties of weather in about the same proportions. Diaries of observant +men running back to 1700 show that almost any kind of memory could be +founded on fact, that the same violent changes<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_160" id="Page_160">[Pg 160]</a></span> in temperature, the same +deep snows and unseasonable seasons that we endure to-day were noticed +then. To quote:</p> + +<p>“The whole winter of 1780 was intensely cold. The Delaware was closed from +the 1st of December to the 14th of March. The ice was from two to three +feet thick.” We despaired of ever living up to this until three years ago +when the same thing happened and sleighs crossed the river a little above +the city. And despite the new ice-boats!</p> + +<p>“The winter of 1779 was very mild, particularly the month of February when +trees were in blossom.”</p> + +<p>“On the 31st of December, 1764, the Delaware was frozen completely over in +one night, and the weather continued cold until the 28th of March with +snow about two and a half feet deep.”</p> + +<p>“The winter of 1756 was very mild. The first snow was as late as the 18th +of March.”</p> + +<p>And so it goes. 1750 was mild; 1742 “one of the coldest since the +settlement of the country”; 1741 was intensely cold, 1725 mild, 1714 very +mild after the 15th of January, 1697 long, stormy and severely cold. The +upshot of it all is that February violets and April snows<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_161" id="Page_161">[Pg 161]</a></span> were just as +well known to General Washington as they are to us.</p> + +<p> </p> +<div class="bbox" style="width: 600px; height: 350px;"><img src="images/img07.jpg" alt="" /></div> +<p class="center">NIMBUS</p> +<p class="center"><i>Courtesy of Richard F. Warren</i></p> + +<p>Nimbus is any cloud from which rain is falling, and the important thing to +know is how to judge from the formless thing how much longer it is to +rain. The wind is the surest guide. In this picture the nimbus cloud is +only that at the end of the cape. All the rest is torn stratus and +cumulus, which needs to condense a little further before it becomes +nimbus. This will likely happen because the cloud at the left is very +dark. The broken appearance denotes some wind. Rain does not fall from a +mottled sky nor yet a streaky one; the nimbus is uniform in appearance. In +summer a break in the nimbus will show a veil of cirro-stratus above. Just +nimbus by itself will not support much of a storm. In winter if the nimbus +is particularly seamless snow is about to fall.</p> +<p> </p> + +<p>But though all facts point to the fact that the climate does not change in +a decade or a generation or a dozen generations, there is some comfort for +those who are not satisfied in knowing that it doesn’t stay the same +forever. During the carboniferous times the poles were as warm as the +tropics and when the Ice Age came on it was very chilly everywhere. If one +might only live an eon or two he might then well complain of the changing +climate.</p> + +<p>Climate, however, is one thing, weather another. The climate is the sum +total of the weather. Climate is as enduring as our Constitution, the +weather is as changeable as our city governments. No matter how proud a +scientist may be of the lasting qualities of the climate, he has to admit +that our weather, taken day by day or even year by year, is versatile in +the extreme. And the question he has set himself to solve is how to +explain the variations of the seasonable weather. He wants to find out why +all winters are not alike, and why no two successive springs are the same. +Then he will be on firm ground at last and able to make scientific +forecasts for the ensuing year.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_162" id="Page_162">[Pg 162]</a></span>The obvious thing was to find out as accurately as possible what had +happened and science’s keenest eye was focused on records in the hope of +discovering fixed periods of warmth or wetness, cycles of cold and +drought. So far no cycles have been discovered that are beyond dispute. +Nothing has been found that cannot be contradicted successfully. This is +discouraging.</p> + +<p>One of the most frequent starting places for investigators is the spots on +the sun. They found that periods of three, eight, eleven, and thirty-five +years should bear some resemblance; 1901 was eagerly looked forward to. +They wanted it to correspond with the remarkably cool summer of 1867. When +it started off in July with a temperature of 103 degrees, the highest ever +recorded in Philadelphia, they concluded that the sunspots were fooling +them. A connection between sunspots and weather has not been established, +therefore, although they are now known to affect the electrical condition +of the earth’s atmosphere. Longer periods of observation will permit +comparisons that may yet define concurrent cycles of sunspots and weather.</p> + +<p>A definite weather cycle has not yet been discovered, but one step in the +way has been cleared<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_163" id="Page_163">[Pg 163]</a></span> up. We now are pretty sure of one cause for unusual +single seasons of heat and cold.</p> + +<p>There exist in winter great bodies of cold, dry air heaped up over Canada +and Siberia, which are formed by the greater rapidity of radiation over +land surfaces than over water. These mounds of cold air build up during +December, January, and February and form great so-called permanent areas +of high barometer. It is on the skirts of the Canadian high that the +smaller highs form which sweep over our country, giving us our cold waves. +Also in winter permanent lows form over the North Pacific and North +Atlantic where warm currents afford continuous supplies of warm moist air. +From the great Aleutian (Pacific) low spring most of the cyclones which +swing down below the border of the Canadian high, make their turn +somewhere in the Mississippi Valley, and then head for the Icelandic low.</p> + +<p>It can be seen that if the Canadian high is a little stronger than usual +and spreads a little farther south, then the northern half of our country +will come more directly under its influence and we will experience an +unusually severe winter. As the storms are pushed south and as the cold +air pours into the northern quadrants<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_164" id="Page_164">[Pg 164]</a></span> the snow line is pushed south too. +Hence all abnormally snowy winters are caused by a strengthening of the +permanent Canadian high which may be central anywhere north of our Dakota +or Montana borders.</p> + +<p>Conversely, if this high is weaker than usual the cyclones can cross the +country on a line farther north, there will be less snow, and the cold +waves that follow will be less severe or even non-existent.</p> + +<p>In summer the reverse occurs. Great oceanic highs are built up over the +South Atlantic and South Pacific and a permanent low occupies the center +of our continent. The character of the season is determined by the +strength and position of these areas. The eastern states are affected +especially by the slow movements of the South Atlantic low. The puzzle is +why should these areas change their power and position, and if they must +change why don’t they do it regularly? The puzzle will undoubtedly be +solved. These great centers of action will be plotted against and observed +from every vantage point by a thousand observers. A fascinating field for +scientific speculation opens.</p> + +<p>At present our Government exchanges daily observations with stations in +Siberia, Canada, and the West Indies. The great storm-breeder,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_165" id="Page_165">[Pg 165]</a></span> the +Aleutian Low, is watched from Alaskan shores. In the Atlantic the Bureau +needs stationary ships to record the growth and decline of the High over +the Azores. Knowledge of the wind circulation from this would inform us +whether our storms were to be shunted farther north and pushed somewhat +inland. A storm which is pushed to the left of its normal track increases +tremendously in intensity. Whereas a cyclone that limps slackly to the +right of its normal line loses intensity at once. It misses coil. In this +respect storms seem to resemble rattlesnakes.</p> + +<p>The energy of the Azores High influences the number and destructiveness of +the West Indian hurricanes: the larger the area is the closer do the +hurricanes hug our shores and the more destruction do they accomplish.</p> + +<p>The very sureness that the general average of the seasons is to be the +same enables us to guess pretty accurately for individual purposes as to +the kind of season coming next. A guess, let me add, is not a forecast. It +is a gamble and disapproved of by the Bureau, but until they supply us +with a basis for judgment we will have to go on guessing, for human +curiosity is as near to perpetual motion as the weather is to the lacking +fourth dimension.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_166" id="Page_166">[Pg 166]</a></span>One of these guesses is that if the winter has been a warm one the summer +will be cool, for the very good reason that the yearly average does depart +so slightly from the fixture. Unfortunately one hot summer does not mean +that the following summer will be cool. Certain sequences of the seasons +have been observed often enough to have been gathered into proverbs. +Everybody agrees that “A late spring never deceives.” “A year of snow, +Fruit will grow.” “A green winter makes a full churchyard.”</p> + +<p>Of the many hundreds of proverbs relating to the seasons a few are sage, +some outworn, and many sheer nonsense. Nearly all refer to the obvious +fact that one kind of season is followed by another rather unlike it, not +much telling what. And there, unsatisfactorily enough, they leave one. But +much is to be hoped for from the scientific explorations now in progress. +And until they are heard from few of us will realize how many seasonable +seasons we really enjoy.</p> + + + +<p> </p><p> </p> +<hr style="width: 50%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_167" id="Page_167">[Pg 167]</a></span></p> +<h2><a name="CHAPTER_VII" id="CHAPTER_VII"></a>CHAPTER VII</h2> +<p class="title">THE WEATHER BUREAU</p> + +<p class="dropcap"><span class="caps">At</span> the cost of a cent and a half a year apiece we Americans are supplied +with detailed information in advance about the weather. And the +information is correct for more than four-fifths of the time. If stock +brokers never missed oftener, what reputations would accrue!</p> + +<p>Cheapness, accuracy, and a certain modesty are the three qualities that +distinguish the out-givings of the Bureau from the old-fashioned +predictions of the weather which used to appear in almanacs. Almanacs have +probably kept appearing ever since the art of printing first allowed +unscrupulous persons to juggle with words. They cost fifty cents and their +predictions were based on nothing but the strength of their author’s +imagination. Of course, it was impossible for him to guess wrong more than +half the time so that when he announced in January that July would be hot +with thunderstorms<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_168" id="Page_168">[Pg 168]</a></span> he was often right. This gave him prestige, but aided +his clients little.</p> + +<p>The Weather Bureau was in about the same position in regard to the quack +predictions of the almanacs as was the honest doctor of the last decade +who could only prescribe good food and fresh air and moderate exercise for +the patient who much preferred the expensive allurements of the medicinal +cure-all as advertised. In humility the Bureau said that as things stood +it could not forecast with accuracy for more than 48 hours, and its +honesty brought it into disregard.</p> + +<p>But, although the Weather Bureau,—like the Christian Church and other +things that have had to combat superstition at every step—has grown +slowly it has grown surely and its work is being recognized more widely +and relied upon more understandingly every month. It was an American +scientist who discovered the rotary motion of cyclones and their +progressive character, but due to the conservative nature of our +Government three other nations had established weather services before we +had. In 1870 the War Department was authorized to start a system of +observations that would permit of a rough sort of forecasting. The +forecasts proved of so much value to shippers and sailors<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_169" id="Page_169">[Pg 169]</a></span> that the work +was handed over to the Department of Agriculture and enlarged (1891). +To-day every part of our country contributes to the knowledge of existing +weather conditions.</p> + +<p>At 8 <span class="smcaplc">A. M.</span> observations are made at hundreds of stations and wired to the +Central Office at Washington. The Chief there, knowing these conditions, +is enabled to locate a storm, to gauge its rate of speed, to learn its +course, and to measure its intensity. He can dictate storm warnings and be +sure that within an hour every sailing master will have a copy. He can +detect a cold wave at its entrance into our territory and know that within +an hour every shipper, every truckster (who has signified that he wishes +to be informed) will have the facts that will save him money.</p> + +<p>At 8 <span class="smcaplc">P. M.</span> the same stations telegraph the changed conditions, and if any +very violent disturbance is in progress an observation is made at noon. +Besides the Washington distributing station there are 1700 others from +which warnings are sent by telegraph, telephone, or mail. There are +100,000 addresses on the mailing list and 5,000,000 telephone subscribers +can get them within an hour. The newspapers reach many millions. And all +this at a cost of 1½ cents a year. If we, in a fit of generosity,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_170" id="Page_170">[Pg 170]</a></span> +should pay 2 cents, or even 2½ the Government would be enabled to work +out many of the larger problems awaiting only a larger appropriation to be +attacked.</p> + +<p>The people’s investment of $1,600,000 a year is a good investment. In one +year the Service saves a great many hundred per cent. A few known savings +are worth giving; $3,500,000 worth of protection was made possible from +one exceptionally severe cold wave; the California citrus growers +estimated that one warning saved $14,000,000 worth of fruit; $30,000,000 +of shipping (and cargoes) was known to have been detained in port just on +account of one hurricane warning, and there are many warnings of gales +every year. Uncalculated savings have been effected among the growers of +tobacco, sugar, cranberries, truck. The railway and transportation +companies save, through use of the forecasts, in shipments of bananas, +oysters, fish, and eggs. Farmers, manufacturers, raisin driers, +photographers, insurance companies, and about a hundred and fifty other +occupations increase their profits by a systematic study of the forecasts.</p> + +<p>The people who live along the rivers often owe their lives and frequently +much of their property to telephone warnings of approaching<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_171" id="Page_171">[Pg 171]</a></span> floods. The +flood stages in all the principal rivers and streams have been calculated +and losses are reduced by 75 per cent. by accurate predictions as to when +the crest of the flood may be expected and how high it will reach. A +hundred uses of river forecasts, even when flood stages are not expected +are given in the booklet, “The Weather Bureau” which you can have from +Washington for the asking, like many another of their publications.</p> + +<p>Yet, with all the good it does, the man on the street still regards the +Bureau as an uninteresting, undependable exhibit in the upper corner of +the newspaper,—if he regards it at all. It is his child, however, who is +instructing him. For his child is being taught in the public school all +about it and he takes his teaching home and becomes the teacher. The child +is father of the (old) man in lots of instances.</p> + +<p>The most impressive thing about the whole output of the Bureau to the +child is its Map. The Bureau issues a map every day which is posted in +post-offices and railroad stations and in schools, too, if they ask for +it. And every day this map shows in all its gripping details the way our +storms are sidling across the continent or rushing up our coasts. It +prints the word low where the stormy area of low barometer is.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_172" id="Page_172">[Pg 172]</a></span> About the +low run continuous black lines numbered 29.7, 29.8, 29.9, etc., which show +where in the country the pressures are the same.</p> + +<p>As the numbers run up to 30.0, 30.1, 30.2 they begin to circle about the +word High which denotes where the pressure is highest. Little circles will +be observed on the map. Some are clear, indicating clear weather; others +are half clear, half black, indicating partly cloudy conditions; others +are all black, showing clouds; others have R. or S. inside them, telling +where it is raining. The numbers under the circles show how much it has +rained or snowed and the numbers under the other numbers are the +velocities of the winds. The arrows through the circles fly with the wind. +A little zig-zag locates each thunderstorm and the shaded portions show +over what portions of the country it has rained during the last 24 hours. +As an intelligent puzzle picture the map is unequaled and no wonder the +child likes it.</p> + +<p>With this map you can tell at a glance what the weather is doing to your +uncle in Tacoma and to your cousin in Missouri. With two successive maps +you can find out about how fast the storms are traveling, in what +direction, and how low the temperatures are under their influence,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_173" id="Page_173">[Pg 173]</a></span> and so +estimate for yourself the weather for the next three days.</p> + +<p>Besides the invaluable daily weather map the Bureau issues many other maps +that present the phenomena of the week, the month, and the season in +graphic form. Masters of vessels are now coöperating with the government +to provide observations at sea, and both on our northwest and southeast +coasts such information is very valuable. In the west several hundreds of +stations are maintained in the mountains for the purpose of obtaining the +depth and content of the great snowfalls there. Estimates can then be +given out as to the amount of water to be available for irrigating +purposes. In addition to the 220 stations of the first class there are +4200 coöperative stations at which observations are made and mailed to 44 +centers for distribution.</p> + +<p>Special local data help to establish the relations between climate and +forestry, agriculture, water resources, and allied subjects. Many +bulletins are compiled by experts in their respective lines and these are +for free distribution. A study of forest cover is being made in Colorado +and the effects of denudation on the flow of streams will soon be +scientifically established.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_174" id="Page_174">[Pg 174]</a></span> As soon as practicable the Bureau hopes to +extend its period of forecasting. Weekly forecasts have been tried in a +general way with success, but long-range forecasting depends upon so many +relationships of the air that present knowledge and facilities do not +warrant its adoption.</p> + + + +<p> </p><p> </p> +<hr style="width: 50%;" /> +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_175" id="Page_175">[Pg 175]</a></span></p> +<h2><a name="CHAPTER_VIII" id="CHAPTER_VIII"></a>CHAPTER VIII</h2> +<p class="title">A CHAPTER OF EXPLOSIONS</p> + +<p class="dropcap"><span class="caps">In</span> the good old times when a man was born, spent his life, and died in the +same village the weather proverb was fashioned. Generations had watched +the clouds gather under certain circumstances and scatter under certain +others and they naturally drew conclusions. These conclusions crystallized +until they resembled nuggets of golden weather wisdom. Some were even used +as charms. And all contained a deal of truth so long as they were only +meant to refer to the country in which they had originated.</p> + +<p>But nowadays when the very idea of remaining in the same place for very +long at a time is obnoxious the weather proverb suffers. It suffers +chiefly by transportation. The weather in County Cork is so very different +from the weather that makes Chicago famous that the same weather lore does +not fit. Yet it is often applied. The old truths, treasured in picturesque +phrase and jingle, were brought over the<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_176" id="Page_176">[Pg 176]</a></span> ocean unchanged and made to do +duty,—a case of new wine in old bottles again, for a gentle old Irish +proverb splits up the back when it tries to accommodate itself to a week +of our reckless but magnificent weather.</p> + +<p>Fairy stories are jewels to be cherished. And it is a careless and +unimaginative race that perpetuates no legends. Even old saws are quaint +and should be preserved: “See a pin and pick it up, all the day you’ll +have good luck.” Let that sort of thing go on because it adds richness to +our conversation. But if a thousand men, after having picked up their +morning pins, sat around waiting for the ensuing luck the progress of +scientific business management would be halted. And precisely that way is +the knowledge of ordinary weather facts halted,—a full-grown superstition +sits in the path. Instead of relying upon their eyes the majority of +people rely upon a bit of doggerel. For example, millions of people firmly +believe that the ground-hog is a key to the weather. They say that if the +ground-hog does not see his shadow on the 2nd of February that winter is +over!</p> + +<p>This is the sort of thing that obscures the findings of science not to +mention common-sense. Few of these people have ever seen a ground-hog.<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_177" id="Page_177">[Pg 177]</a></span> +Few of the rest have ever studied its habits. The ant, the mouse, the fly, +the rat, and the mosquito have far more influence upon our lives than the +ground-hog has and the most ambitious animal cannot expect to influence +atmospheric pressure, which is responsible for our weather. Yet as often +as the 2nd of February comes around the hopes of many are either dashed or +raised according to the actions of this creature. As a matter of fact, +whether February 2nd is clear or cloudy can have no influence on the rest +of the winter.</p> + +<p>Almost all the other proverbs have a basis of reason. But this puts its +believers in the wrong either way. If they say that it is the actions of +the animal that they rely upon they depend upon a characteristic +thoroughly and surely disproved. No animal, although it may sense a change +in the weather a few hours in advance, is able to feel it for three days +ahead to say nothing of six weeks. If these people say, on the other hand, +that a cloudy February 2nd means an immediate and complete let up of +winter, or that a clear February 2nd means a certain continuance of cold +weather for six weeks, they have only to trouble themselves to look at the +files of the nearest Weather Bureau for the last forty years. They will +find no connection. The trouble is<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_178" id="Page_178">[Pg 178]</a></span> that they will not look, but keep on +repeating the bit of nonsense and believing in it, although the strength +of their convictions probably does not reduce their coal-bills.</p> + +<p>The same people are fond of saying that the first three days of December +show what the winter will be like. That is, if the 1st is fair so will +December be; if the 2nd is cold so will January be; and if it snows on the +3rd, so will it snow in February. If all three should be clear and warm +certainly a remarkable winter would follow! No rain, no snow, no cold! You +see how absurd this superstition is.</p> + +<p>“A dry moon lies on its back!” After the ground-hog the moon is supposed +to have the most influence on our seasons. The Government and many +scientists connected with no governments have made careful, exhaustive and +conclusive investigations. No relation between the moon and our weather +has been discovered except as she causes our tides and they affect +atmospheric pressure in an infinitesimal degree. We would still have just +as much and just as variable weather if there were no moon. The weather +changes with the changing moon, and it does not change as the moon +changes, and the chances are about even that the times of change will +coincide. So there is, therefore, absolutely<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_179" id="Page_179">[Pg 179]</a></span> no foundation for the dozens +of proverbs that yoke the changes of the moon with the changes of our +weather. Neither in science nor in observation has any sequence been +deduced.</p> + +<p>So the moon may lie on its back or on its side or stand on its head and +the weather will remain dry if no low pressure areas cross the country, +and it can lie on its back for days and the country be drowned out if they +do. There are enough pretty things to say about the moon, anyway, and will +be more all the time for, to commit a paraphrase: Science is stranger than +superstition.</p> + +<p>“It will rain for forty days straight if it rains on St. Swithin’s Day,” +which, I might as well say for the benefit of those who don’t know their +saints, falls on July 15th every year. It would be interesting to know how +many people in a hundred really believe this, or really believe all the +other things that are attributed to the saints,—quite a few, probably. +Luckily for St. Swithin July and August are wet months, with often several +days of showers or thunderstorms in succession. But never once in +Philadelphia has it rained for forty days, one right after another, +although half the July 15ths have been rained on. This proverb is one of +those that had better never been transplanted from its <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_180" id="Page_180">[Pg 180]</a></span>native Ireland +where rain for 40 days would excite scarcely a curse.</p> + +<p>“Long and loud singing of robins denotes rain.” It does not. Oftener than +not it denotes the time of day. Just watch the robins and listen to them +and see what they do before a storm, during it, after it, and then you +will see how little the songs of birds can be depended upon to supplant +the barometer.</p> + +<p>“If March comes in like a lion it will go out like a lamb,” and the other +way round. I have seen March come in like a lion and go out like a lion, +come in like a lion and go out like a lamb, come in like a lamb and go out +like a lion, and come in like a lamb and go out like a Noah’s ark. But I +never have seen March do anything dependable. It is quite impossible to +tell how March is going out on March 27th, and absolutely impossible to +tell on March 1st.</p> + +<p>But there is this much observation expressed in the proverb, that March is +so changeable that, if it comes in cold, windy, unsettled, there is not so +much chance for such weather still to be going on at the end of the month, +and still less in England where the proverb came from. This is a harmless +proverb unless it should lead people to actually count upon a pleasant +spring just because March had an unpleasant inception. <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_181" id="Page_181">[Pg 181]</a></span>Misfortunes rarely +come singly, even on the weather calendar.</p> + +<p>“When squirrels are scarce in autumn the winter will be severe.” Aside +from the scientific truth that the animals cannot know in advance about +the seasons there is little evidence on either side to base a contention. +Nobody has made a squirrel census; nobody, probably, has found out whether +they increase in numbers for six years and then die off in great +quantities as do the rabbits in the north country on the seventh; nobody +has connected their apparent numbers year after year with the actual +severities of the winters. And so nobody has a right to promulgate the +report (except as a bit of nonsense like April Fool) that the ensuing +winter is going to be a record breaker because the squirrels have +disappeared. It would be far truer to say that “When squirrels are scarce +in autumn the hunters have been busy,” and let it go at that.</p> + +<p>There are a lot of proverbs in this connection about goose bones and +hickory nuts and wild geese, which sound plausible but are never proved. +If the birds have all the sense credited to them it is strange that some +allow themselves to be caught by an early snowstorm in the fall and +decimated. Also it is not uncommon for<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_182" id="Page_182">[Pg 182]</a></span> early migrations in the spring to +arrive in the north to be slain by the thousand by a belated blizzard. It +is granted that animals and birds, having a far greater sensitiveness than +man, occasionally sense a catastrophe some hours before it is evidenced by +any visual signs, but seasonal wisdom has not been proved in any one +instance and disproved in many. None of the proverbs relating to the +animals and birds are to be depended upon. They deceive, much to the +regret of all the meteorologists who would welcome any genuine clue to +nature of the coming season. Any farmer would be only too glad to keep a +menagerie of squirrels and wild geese and toads if only he might be +assured by them of the coming seasonal conditions.</p> + +<p>The proverbs given indicate the range, possibly, but certainly not the +full absurdity of the old weather sayings. There are many other proverbs +that contain at least a half truth.</p> + +<p>“Enough blue sky to make a Dutchman’s breeches indicates clearing,” is one +that is true if the wind has changed to the west. If the wind still blows +from an easterly quarter blue sky for a Dutchman’s whole wardrobe would +not insure clear weather. All sayings must be tested many times before +they are believed implicitly.</p> + +<p>“There is always a thaw in January,” is<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_183" id="Page_183">[Pg 183]</a></span> about as true a generalization as +can be made about things for which generalizations are never strictly in +place. Even in Canada the severity of the winter is often broken by a +spell of warmer weather with a rain, perhaps, in the dead of winter. In +the United States a winter without some break in each of the months would +be a most unusual occurrence. So that it is quite reasonable to expect the +“January thaw” any time from Christmas until the middle of February.</p> + +<p>“A late spring never deceives,” unless it is so very late, like the +phenomenal spring of 1907, that the jump is made, perforce, into summer. +That is a cruel deception. What is meant of course is that if the freezing +weather continues consistently, well past the average, the likelihood of +frost-damage to fruit is slight. There is nothing much worse than for the +blossoms to be forced by a period of warm weather early, for there is only +a slim chance that it will continue past the danger limit. It is +surprising how late frost may occur,—the last date for killing frost in +Pennsylvania is about May 10th on the <i>average</i>, which makes it possible +till June.</p> + +<p>“The first robins indicate the approach of spring.” But certainly not its +arrival.</p> + +<p>“If the moon rises clear expect fair<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_184" id="Page_184">[Pg 184]</a></span> weather.” Right; because if it is +summer even the eastern horizon would show the humidity necessary enough +to cause a thunderstorm, and in winter the cirrus clouds give several +hours’ warning. But, again, the wind is the chief factor to be considered.</p> + +<p>Proverbs, representing variations of the truth, could be given about every +manifestation of the skies as well as about things that were never +manifest except in the imagination, for every country has contributed to +the volume of weather-lore. But, unfortunately, neither age nor amount of +repetition are as good as the truth and they should be discarded if they +are false. The way to discard is not to repeat.</p> + +<p>The man who desires weather-wisdom should seek it with his eyes. His +comparison will be that which he sees with that which he has seen, and he +will soon form all the weather axioms he needs for himself. The local +Bureau or the Bureau at Washington will answer all his inquiries, +cheerfully, promptly, and free of charge. Of course there are things that +the Bureau wants to know itself. It is very curious about the higher +strata of air. Small balloons have carried very light instruments to an +altitude of fifteen miles and brought considerable knowledge to earth,<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_185" id="Page_185">[Pg 185]</a></span> +but each bit makes more knowledge imperative.</p> + +<p>The cry of “last frontier” hurts the adventurous, the exploring, the +woods-loving as no other cry has power to hurt. With the Poles gone and +Alaska in harness we are inclined to think that it is all over. We resign +ourselves to our trammelling globe,—as the gold-fish do,—forgetting. But +there is plenty of interest left. The birds must be brought back. Forests +must be made and patrolled, and the air-ocean is still unknown. That, at +any rate, has remained unspoiled by man.</p> + +<p>The seas have been charted and the mountains have been disemboweled, but +the atmosphere is unconquered. More must be known. Squadrons of aëroplanes +cannot ride out the gale until their pilots know all about the gale. Until +that time there need be no cry of last frontier, for until that time the +weather will continue to be our overlord, whose dominions are flaunted +before the watcher on the porch and the runner on the trail.</p> + + +<p> </p> +<p class="center">CONDENSATIONS</p> + +<p>Look for continued fair weather when:</p> + +<p>A gentle wind blows from the west, northwest, or a little south of west.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_186" id="Page_186">[Pg 186]</a></span>The sun sets in a cloudless sky.</p> + +<p>The sunset is composed of light tints, inclining to red or yellow.</p> + +<p>The sunset is followed by a glowing and slow-fading western sky.</p> + +<p>The sun sets like a ball of fire (warmer).</p> + +<p>The sun rises out of a gray sky.</p> + +<p>The clouds are noticeably high for the season.</p> + +<p>The clouds rise on the mountains.</p> + +<p>The clouds have frequent breaks showing blue sky between.</p> + +<p>The puffy cumulus clouds show a lot of white.</p> + +<p>The cumulus clouds decrease toward nightfall.</p> + +<p>The winter sky is mottled with a northwest wind.</p> + +<p>The summer morning fog breaks before ten o’clock.</p> + +<p>The dawn is low.</p> + +<p>The blue sky has a tendency to show green near the northern horizon +(colder).</p> + +<p>The sun breaks through a departing thunderstorm and makes a rainbow.</p> + +<p>Snow-flurries drift down a north wind (colder).</p> + +<p>Cirrus clouds, or others, dissolve, or cirrus have tails down.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_187" id="Page_187">[Pg 187]</a></span>Spiders spin on the grass.</p> + +<p>There is a moderate dew or frost.</p> + +<p>The temperature is normal or colder than normal, other signs being right.</p> + +<p>The sky is sown with stars.</p> + +<p>The moon rises clear.</p> + +<p>The wind blows down mountain ravines after nightfall.</p> + +<p>The salt is dry, smoke ascends, birds fly high, and animals act normally.</p> + +<p>The barometer rises slowly, or is steady at or above 30.00.</p> + +<p>No change need be feared as the anticyclone nears, or for three days after +clear conditions are established so long as the wind remains brisk from +some westerly quarter. The direction of the wind, the kind of cloud, and +the temperature changes are the factors to watch if you have no barometer.</p> + +<hr style="width: 25%;" /> + +<p>Look for a change toward storms when:</p> + +<p>The west wind suddenly drops.</p> + +<p>The west wind shifts to south or northeast.</p> + +<p>The cirrus clouds appear in well-organized lines.</p> + +<p>The cirrus clouds merge into cirro-stratus.</p> + +<p>The sky looks like fish scales, so-called mackerel sky.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_188" id="Page_188">[Pg 188]</a></span>Light scud drifts across the sky from east to west.</p> + +<p>The summer cumulus clouds increase in size as the afternoon proceeds.</p> + +<p>Walls grow damp, flies are more of a burden than usual, swallows fly low.</p> + +<p>Smoke falls to the ground.</p> + +<p>There have been three white frosts.</p> + +<p>A halo appears around either the moon or sun.</p> + +<p>When sun-dogs appear about the sun, denoting ice-particles in the air.</p> + +<p>The summer morning is sultry and the wind variable.</p> + +<p>The temperature is much above the normal.</p> + +<p>Few stars are visible and those are indistinct. The clouds gather about +the mountain tops, or drop down the mountain-sides.</p> + +<p>The wind continues to blow up ravines after nightfall.</p> + +<p>The sunset is a dull gray, or the sun sets into a livid cloudbank.</p> + +<p>The sunrise is a fiery red, and the dawn is high.</p> + +<p>The sun gradually is smothered in fine-textured clouds and the wind +shifts.</p> + +<p>The temperature does not fall at night.</p> + +<p>The signs most to be heeded are the shift of<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_189" id="Page_189">[Pg 189]</a></span> wind to a point east of +north or south, the gradual filming of the sky with cirrus and +cirro-stratus, and the increase of temperature. Of course, the barometer +is the best indicator of all.</p> + +<hr style="width: 25%;" /> + +<p>Look for a change toward clearing when:</p> + +<p>The wind shifts from the easterly quarter into the west.</p> + +<p>The temperature falls rapidly.</p> + +<p>The clouds rise, or break, or lighten perceptibly in color.</p> + +<p>Patches of blue sky appear through the rifts in the clouds, wind north.</p> + +<p>Raindrops grow smaller after the windshift.</p> + +<p>Snowflakes drive less busily, float lazily down, or thin out +conspicuously.</p> + +<p>Seams appear in the clouds, snow will cease and rain probably.</p> + +<p>The thunder and lightning occur only in the eastern quarter.</p> + +<p>Permanent clearing will not be effected until the change of the wind to +the points on the western half of the compass show that the cyclone has +definitely passed to the north or south or over the locality. In winter +the cloud covering may move off slowly, but there will be little +precipitation after the wind has reached north or west. The bank of +cirro-stratus gets<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_190" id="Page_190">[Pg 190]</a></span> thinner and the moon or the sun gradually shines +through. In summer clearing is much more abrupt, as is the clouding up. +The ability to sense accurately the moment when the weights are shifted +and the change to clearing commences takes some observation to acquire, +but the advantage is worth it.</p> + +<hr style="width: 25%;" /> + +<p>Rain (or snow) will fall:</p> + +<p>Within five minutes after the arch of the thundercloud is seen to move +toward one.</p> + +<p>Within five minutes when the curtain of falling drops obscures the +landscape to the west of one.</p> + +<p>Within a few minutes after the bottoms of cumulus clouds turn from black +to gray, letting down visible trailing showers.</p> + +<p>Within a short while after the winter sky has become uniform in color.</p> + +<p>Within an hour after the pavement-like, but scarcely discernible, +thundercloud consolidates along the west, if the wind is from the +southwest. If the wind is from the southeast this cloud may take four +hours to rise.</p> + +<p>From two to eight hours after the sun or moon has vanished behind the +cirro-stratus.</p> + +<p>From eight to forty-eight hours after the first cirrus is seen, depending +upon the distance from the sea and the time of year.</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_191" id="Page_191">[Pg 191]</a></span>Every little while from southwest showers in the passing of a summer low.</p> + +<p>For about eight to twelve hours continuously in a winter storm, and +intermittently until the wind swings west.</p> + +<p>For a very short while from a thunder cloud rising on a west wind.</p> + +<p>For an hour or more from a thundercloud that rises on a southwest or +southeast wind.</p> + +<hr style="width: 25%;" /> + +<p>The temperature will fall when:</p> + +<p>A thunderstorm breaks, continuing low if the wind blows from the west +after clearing.</p> + +<p>Nightfall approaches and the sky is free from clouds.</p> + +<p>The mercury remains at the same level during the sunny hours.</p> + +<p>A cyclone is departing and the anticyclone moving in.</p> + +<p>The wind swings north of east in a storm,—the fall will be gradual.</p> + +<p>The wind swings west of south in a storm,—the fall will be sudden.</p> + +<p>A snowstorm begins, for a short time only.</p> + +<p>A cloudy day clears at sunset.</p> + +<p>Snow flurries are seen.</p> + +<p>The sky shows green and the clouds look hard.</p> + +<hr style="width: 25%;" /> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_192" id="Page_192">[Pg 192]</a></span>The temperature will rise when:</p> + +<p>A thunderstorm is brewing, or a day or two before a winter cyclone.</p> + +<p>After a thunderstorm if another is to follow.</p> + +<p>The morning is free from clouds and if it is not the first day of a cold +wave.</p> + +<p>The wind dips south of west or south of northeast, the former shift +bringing the more sudden rise.</p> + +<p>The sun sets as a ball of fire, at which one can easily look.</p> + +<p>A snowstorm gets under way, unless the wind is swinging toward the north.</p> + + +<p> </p> +<p class="center">A PAGE OF PROBLEMS</p> + +<p>One satisfying thing about meteorology is that there is a constantly +widening field for conquest. Among the questions that await solution are:</p> + +<p>What are the relative densities of clouds?</p> + +<p>What is the original atmospheric electricity, its distribution and laws?</p> + +<p>What are the causes and nature of precipitation?</p> + +<p>Will aërial ascents on all sides of an atmospheric disturbance discover +the mechanism of storms?</p> + +<p><span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_193" id="Page_193">[Pg 193]</a></span>What relations are there of solar radiation to our atmosphere?</p> + +<p>What influence do lunar tides bear to our weather?</p> + +<p>On what does the permanence of the summer lows over the Rockies depend?</p> + +<p>These questions are only samples. Many certainties can be attained by +merely complete observations over a longer period of time, others by new +systems of observations that await a more generous appropriation. Even the +upper air investigations on Mt. Weather, Va., have had to be curtailed. +The Bureau’s record has proved it efficient, of enormous benefit to the +country, and deserving of the encouragement instead of the depreciation of +every citizen.</p> + + +<p> </p> +<p class="center">WHAT THE WEATHER FLAGS MEAN</p> + +<p>In every city the Bureau causes flags to be flown from some prominent +place so that a glance may show shippers and everybody who may be +concerned at the shortest possible notice just what the approaching +weather conditions are.</p> + +<p>A plain white flag means fair weather.</p> + +<p>A black triangle stands for temperature and is always exhibited with some +other flag. Its relative position, either above or below indicates<span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_194" id="Page_194">[Pg 194]</a></span> higher +or lower temperature. Therefore white flag with the black below means fair +and colder. The white flag with the black above means fair and warmer.</p> + +<p>A white flag with a black square in the center means a cold wave.</p> + +<p>A blue flag means either rain or snow.</p> + +<p>The blue with the black above would mean rain or snow and warmer.</p> + +<p>The blue with the black below would mean rain or snow and colder.</p> + +<p>A blue and white flag means a local shower. The same meanings are attached +to the black triangle in connection with the blue and white.</p> + +<p>A red triangle indicates a dangerous local storm, is called the +information flag meaning that shippers should apply to the Bureau for news +of the direction in which the storm is travelling.</p> + +<p>A red square with a black center means severe winds.</p> + +<p>1. Southwesterly with a white triangle below.</p> + +<p>2. Northwesterly with a white triangle above.</p> + +<p>3. Northeasterly with a red triangle above.</p> + +<p>4. Southeasterly with a red triangle below.</p> + + +<p> <span class="pagenum"><a name="Page_195" id="Page_195">[Pg 195]</a></span></p> +<p class="center">OUR FOUR WORLD’S RECORDS,—AND OTHERS</p> + +<p>Maximum Temperature</p> + +<div class="blockquot"><p>United States, 134 at Greenland Ranch, Cal., July, 1913.</p> + +<p>World, 134 at Greenland Ranch, Cal.</p></div> + +<p>Minimum Temperature</p> + +<div class="blockquot"><p>United States, -65 at Miles City, Mont., January, 1888.</p> + +<p>World, -98 at Verkhojansk, Siberia.</p></div> + +<p>Absolute Zero of Space</p> + +<div class="blockquot"><p>-459 degrees Fahrenheit.</p></div> + +<p>Maximum Annual Precipitation</p> + +<div class="blockquot"><p>United States, 167.29 inches at Glenora, Oreg., in 1896.</p> + +<p>World, 905.1 inches, Cherrapunji, India, 1861.</p></div> + +<p>Maximum Monthly Precipitation</p> + +<div class="blockquot"><p>United States, 71.5 inches at Helen Mine, Cal., January, 1909.</p> + +<p>World, 366 inches, Cherrapunji, India, July, 1861.</p></div> + +<p>Maximum 24 Hour Precipitation</p> + +<div class="blockquot"><p>United States, 21 inches at Alexandria, La.</p></div> + +<p>Minimum Annual Precipitation</p> + +<div class="blockquot"><p>United States, none at Bagdad, Cal., in 1913. (Only 3.93 inches fell +at Bagdad during period 1909 to 1913, inclusive.)</p></div> + +<p>Maximum Annual Snowfall</p> + +<div class="blockquot"><p>United States, 786 inches at Tamarack, Cal., 1911.</p></div> + +<p>Maximum Monthly Snowfall</p> + +<div class="blockquot"><p>United States, 390 inches at Tamarack, Cal., January, 1911.</p></div> + +<p>Maximum Wind Velocity</p> + +<div class="blockquot"><p>United States, 186 miles per hour at Mt. Washington, on Jan. 11, 1878. +(Much higher velocities have undoubtedly occurred in tornadoes, etc., +but have not been susceptible of instrumental measurement.)</p></div> + + +<p> </p> +<p class="center">THE END</p> + + + +<p> </p><p> </p> +<hr style="width: 50%;" /> +<p class="title"><i>OUTING PUBLISHING COMPANY—NEW YORK</i></p> + +<p class="center"><img src="images/img08.jpg" alt="OUTING" /><br /> +<span class="giant"><strong>HANDBOOKS</strong></span></p> + +<p class="center"><i>The textbooks for outdoor work and play</i></p> + +<p>¶ Each book deals with a separate subject and deals with it thoroughly. If +you want to know anything about Airedales an OUTING HANDBOOK gives you all +you want. If it’s Apple Growing, another OUTING HANDBOOK meets your need. +The Fisherman, the Camper, the Poultry-raiser, the Automobilist, the +Horseman, all varieties of out-door enthusiasts, will find separate +volumes for their separate interests. There is no waste space.</p> + +<p>¶ The series is based on the plan of one subject to a book and each book +complete. The authors are experts. Each book has been specially prepared +for this series and all are published in uniform style, flexible cloth +binding.</p> + +<p>¶ Two hundred titles are projected. The series covers all phases of +outdoor life, from bee-keeping to big-game shooting. Among the books now +ready or in preparation are those described on the following pages.</p> + +<p class="center">PRICE SEVENTY CENTS PER VOL. NET, POSTAGE 5c. EXTRA</p> + +<p class="center">THE NUMBERS MAKE ORDERING EASY.</p> + +<p>1. EXERCISE AND HEALTH, by Dr. Woods Hutchinson. Dr. Hutchinson takes the +common-sense view that the greatest problem in exercise for most of us is +to get enough of the right kind. The greatest error in exercise is not to +take enough, and the greatest danger in athletics is in giving them up. He +writes in a direct matter-of-fact manner with an avoidance of medical +terms, and a strong emphasis on the rational, all-round manner of living +that is best calculated to bring a man to a ripe old age with little +illness or consciousness of bodily weakness.</p> + +<div class="figcenter"><img src="images/img09.jpg" alt="" /></div> + +<p>2. CAMP COOKERY, by Horace Kephart. “The less a man carries in his pack +the more he must carry in his head,” says Mr. Kephart. This book tells +what a man should carry in both pack and head. Every step is traced—the +selection of provisions and utensils, with the kind and quantity of each, +the preparation of game, the building of fires, the cooking of every +conceivable kind of food that the camp outfit or woods, fields or streams +may provide—even to the making of desserts. Every recipe is the result of +hard practice and long experience.</p> + +<div class="figcenter"><img src="images/img10.jpg" alt="" /></div> + +<p>3. BACKWOODS SURGERY AND MEDICINE, by Charles S. Moody, M. D. A handy book +for the prudent lover of the woods who doesn’t expect to be ill but +believes in being on the safe side. Common-sense methods for the treatment +of the ordinary wounds and accidents are described—setting a broken limb, +reducing a dislocation, caring for burns, cuts, etc. Practical remedies +for camp diseases are recommended, as well as the ordinary indications of +the most probable ailments. Includes a list of the necessary medical and +surgical supplies.</p> + +<p>4. APPLE GROWING, by M. C. Burritt. The various problems confronting the +apple grower, from the preparation of the soil and the planting of the +trees to the marketing of the fruit, are discussed in detail by the +author. Chapter headings are:—The Outlook for the Growing of +Apples—Planning for the Orchard—Planting and Growing the +Orchard—Pruning the Trees—Cultivation and Cover Cropping—Manuring and +Fertilizing—Insects and Diseases Affecting the Apple—The Principles and +Practice of Spraying—Harvesting and Storing—Markets and Marketing—Some +Hints on Renovating Old Orchards—The Cost of Growing Apples.</p> + +<p>5. THE AIREDALE, by Williams Haynes. The book opens with a short chapter +on the origin and development of the Airedale, as a distinctive breed. The +author then takes up the problems of type as bearing on the selection of +the dog, breeding, training and use. The book is designed for the +non-professional dog fancier, who wishes common sense advice which does +not involve elaborate preparations or expenditure. Chapters are included +on the care of the dog in the kennel and simple remedies for ordinary +diseases.</p> + +<p>6. THE AUTOMOBILE.—Its selection, Care and Use, by Robert Sloss. This is +a plain, practical discussion of the things that every man needs to know +if he is to buy the right car and get the most out of it. The various +details of operation and care are given in simple, intelligent terms. From +it the car owner can easily learn the mechanism of his motor and the art +of locating motor trouble, as well as how to use his car for the greatest +pleasure. A chapter is included on building garages.</p> + +<p>7. FISHING KITS AND EQUIPMENT, by Samuel G. Camp. A complete guide to the +angler buying a new outfit. Every detail of the fishing kit of the +freshwater angler is described, from rodtip to creel, and clothing. +Special emphasis is laid on outfitting for fly fishing, but full +instruction is also given to the man who wants to catch pickerel, pike, +muskellunge, lake-trout, bass and other freshwater game fishes. Prices are +quoted for all articles recommended and the approved method of selecting +and testing the various rods, lines, leaders, etc., is described.</p> + +<div class="figcenter"><img src="images/img11.jpg" alt="" /></div> + +<p>8. THE FINE ART OF FISHING, by Samuel G. Camp. Combine the pleasure of +catching fish with the gratification of following the sport in the most +approved manner. The suggestions offered are helpful to beginner and +expert anglers. The range of fish and fishing conditions covered is wide +and includes such subjects as “Casting Fine and Far Off,” “Strip-Casting +for Bass,” “Fishing for Mountain Trout” and “Autumn Fishing for Lake +Trout.” The book is pervaded with a spirit of love for the streamside and +the out-doors generally which the genuine angler will appreciate. A +companion book to “Fishing Kits and Equipment.” The advice on outfitting +so capably given in that book is supplemented in this later work by +equally valuable information on how to use the equipment.</p> + +<p>9. THE HORSE—Its Breeding, Care and Use, by David Buffum. Mr. Buffum +takes up the common, every-day problems of the ordinary horse-users, such +as feeding, shoeing, simple home remedies, breaking and the cure for +various equine vices. An important chapter is that tracing the influx of +Arabian blood into the English and American horses and its value and +limitations. Chapters are included on draft-horses, carriage horses, and +the development of the two-minute trotter. It is distinctly a sensible +book for the sensible man who wishes to know how he can improve his horses +and his horsemanship at the same time.</p> + +<p>10. THE MOTOR BOAT—Its Selection, Care and Use, by H. W. Slauson. The +intending purchaser is advised as to the type of motor boat best suited to +his particular needs and how to keep it in running condition after +purchased. The chapter headings are: Kinds and Uses of Motor Boats—When +the Motor Balks—Speeding of the Motor Boat—Getting More Power from a New +Motor—How to Install a Marine Power Plant—Accessories—Covers, Canopies +and Tops—Camping and Cruising—The Boathouse.</p> + +<p>11. OUTDOOR SIGNALLING, by Elbert Wells. Mr. Wells has perfected a method +of signalling by means of wig-wag, light, smoke, or whistle which is as +simple as it is effective. The fundamental principle can be learned in ten +minutes and its application is far easier than that of any other code now +in use. It permits also the use of cipher and can be adapted to almost any +imaginable conditions of weather, light, or topography.</p> + +<p>12. TRACKS AND TRACKING, by Josef Brunner. After twenty years of patient +study and practical experience, Mr. Brunner can, from his intimate +knowledge, speak with authority on this subject. “Tracks and Tracking” +shows how to follow intelligently even the most intricate animal or bird +tracks. It teaches how to interpret tracks of wild game and decipher the +many tell-tale signs of the chase that would otherwise pass unnoticed. It +proves how it is possible to tell from the footprints the name, sex, +speed, direction, whether and how wounded, and many other things about +wild animals and birds. All material has been gathered first hand; the +drawings and half-tones from photographs form an important part of the +work.</p> + +<div class="figcenter"><img src="images/img12.jpg" alt="" /></div> + +<p>13. WING AND TRAP-SHOOTING, by Charles Askins. Contains a full discussion +of the various methods, such as snap-shooting, swing and half-swing, +discusses the flight of birds with reference to the gunner’s problem of +lead and range and makes special application of the various points to the +different birds commonly shot in this country. A chapter is included on +trap shooting and the book closes with a forceful and common-sense +presentation of the etiquette of the field.</p> + +<p>14. PROFITABLE BREEDS OF POULTRY, by Arthur S. Wheeler. Mr. Wheeler +discusses from personal experience the best-known general purpose breeds. +Advice is given from the standpoint of the man who desires results in eggs +and stock rather than in specimens for exhibition. In addition to a +careful analysis of stock—good and bad—and some conclusions regarding +housing and management, the author writes in detail regarding Plymouth +Rocks, Wyandottes, Orpingtons, Rhode Island Reds, Mediterraneans and the +Cornish.</p> + +<p>15. RIFLES AND RIFLE SHOOTING, by Charles Askins. A practical manual +describing various makes and mechanisms, in addition to discussing in +detail the range and limitations in the use of the rifle. Treats on the +every style and make of rifle as well as their use. Every type of rifle is +discussed so that the book is complete in every detail.</p> + +<p>16. SPORTING FIREARMS, by Horace Kephart. This book is the result of +painstaking tests and experiments. Practically nothing is taken for +granted. Part I deals with the rifle, and Part II with the shotgun. The +man seeking guidance in the selection and use of small firearms, as well +as the advanced student of the subject, will receive an unusual amount of +assistance from this work. The chapter headings are: Rifles and +Ammunition—The Flight of Bullets—Killing Power—Rifle Mechanism and +Materials—Rifle Sights—Triggers and Stocks—Care of Rifle—Shot Patterns +and Penetration—Gauges and Weights—Mechanism and Build of Shotguns.</p> + +<p>17. THE YACHTSMAN’S HANDBOOK, by Herbert L. Stone. The author and compiler +of this work is the editor of “Yachting.” He treats in simple language of +the many problems confronting the amateur sailor and motor boatman. +Handling ground tackle, handling lines, taking soundings, the use of the +lead line, care and use of sails, yachting etiquette, are all given +careful attention. Some light is thrown upon the operation of the gasoline +motor, and suggestions are made for the avoidance of engine troubles.</p> + +<p>18. SCOTTISH AND IRISH TERRIERS, by Williams Haynes. This is a companion +book to “The Airedale,” and deals with the history and development of both +breeds. For the owner of the dog, valuable information is given as to the +use of the terriers, their treatment in health, their treatment when sick, +the principles of dog breeding, and dog shows and rules.</p> + +<p>19. NAVIGATION FOR THE AMATEUR, by Capt. E. T. Morton. A short treatise on +the simpler methods of finding position at sea by the observation of the +sun’s altitude and the use of the sextant and chronometer. It is arranged +especially for yachtsmen and amateurs who wish to know the simpler +formulae for the necessary navigation involved in taking a boat anywhere +off shore. Illustrated with drawings. Chapter headings: Fundamental +Terms—Time—The Sumner Line—The Day’s Work, Equal Altitude, and +Ex-Meridian Sights—Hints on Taking Observations.</p> + +<p>20. OUTDOOR PHOTOGRAPHY, by Julian A. Dimock. A solution of all the +problems in camera work out-of-doors. The various subjects dealt with are: +The Camera—Lens and Plates—Light and Exposure—Development—Prints and +Printing—Composition—Landscapes—Figure Work—Speed Photography—The +Leaping Tarpon—Sea Pictures—In the Good Old Winter Time—Wild Life.</p> + +<p>21. PACKING AND PORTAGING, by Dillon Wallace. Mr. Wallace has brought +together in one volume all the valuable information on the different ways +of making and carrying the different kinds of packs. The ground covered +ranges from man-packing to horse-packing, from the use of the tump line to +throwing the diamond hitch.</p> + +<p>22. THE BULL TERRIER, by Williams Haynes. This is a companion book to “The +Airedale” and “Scottish and Irish Terriers” by the same author. Its +greatest usefulness is as a guide to the dog owner who wishes to be his +own kennel manager. A full account of the development of the breed is +given with a description of best types and standards. Recommendations for +the care of the dog in health or sickness are included. The chapter heads +cover such matters as:—The Bull Terrier’s History—Training the Bull +Terrier—The Terrier in Health—Kenneling—Diseases.</p> + +<div class="figcenter"><img src="images/img13.jpg" alt="" /></div> + +<p>23. THE FOX TERRIER, by Williams Haynes. As in his other books on the +terrier, Mr. Haynes takes up the origin and history of the breed, its +types and standards, and the more exclusive representatives down to the +present time. Training the Fox Terrier—His Care and Kenneling in Sickness +and Health—and the Various Uses to Which He Can Be Put—are among the +phases handled.</p> + +<p>24. SUBURBAN GARDENS, by Grace Tabor. Illustrated with diagrams. The +author regards the house and grounds as a complete unit and shows how the +best results may be obtained by carrying the reader in detail through the +various phases of designing the garden, with the levels and contours +necessary, laying out the walks and paths, planning and placing the +arbors, summer houses, seats, etc., and selecting and placing trees, +shrubs, vines and flowers. Ideal plans for plots of various sizes are +appended, as well as suggestions for correcting mistakes that have been +made through “starting wrong.”</p> + +<div class="figcenter"><img src="images/img14.jpg" alt="" /></div> + +<p>25. FISHING WITH FLOATING FLIES, by Samuel G. Camp. This is an art that is +comparatively new in this country although English anglers have used the +dry fly for generations. Mr. Camp has given the matter special study and +is one of the few American anglers who really understands the matter from +the selection of the outfit to the landing of the fish. His book takes up +the process in that order, namely—How to Outfit for Dry Fly Fishing—How, +Where, and When to Cast—The Selection and Use of Floating Flies—Dry Fly +Fishing for Brook, Brown and Rainbow Trout—Hooking, Playing and +Landing—Practical Hints on Dry Fly Fishing.</p> + +<p>26. THE GASOLINE MOTOR, by Harold Whiting Slauson. Deals with the +practical problems of motor operation. The standpoint is that of the man +who wishes to know how and why gasoline generates power and something +about the various types. Describes in detail the different parts of motors +and the faults to which they are liable. Also gives full directions as to +repair and upkeep. Various chapters deal with Types of +Motors—Valves—Bearings—Ignition—Carburetors—Lubrication—Fuel—Two +Cycle Motors.</p> + +<p>27. ICE BOATING, by H. L. Stone. Illustrated with diagrams. Here have been +brought together all the available information on the organization and +history of ice-boating, the building of the various types of ice yachts, +from the small 15 footer to the 600-foot racer, together with detailed +plans and specifications. Full information is also given to meet the needs +of those who wish to be able to build and sail their own boats but are +handicapped by the lack of proper knowledge as to just the points +described in this volume.</p> + +<p>28. MODERN GOLF, by Harold H. Hilton. Mr. Hilton is the only man who has +ever held the amateur championship of Great Britain and the United States +in the same year. In addition to this, he has, for years, been recognized +as one of the most intelligent, steady players of the game in England. +This book is a product of his advanced thought and experience and gives +the reader sound advice, not so much on the mere swinging of the clubs as +in the actual playing of the game, with all the factors that enter into +it. He discusses the use of wooden clubs, the choice of clubs, the art of +approaching, tournament play as a distinct thing in itself, and kindred +subjects.</p> + +<p>29. INTENSIVE FARMING, by L. C. Corbett. A discussion of the meaning, +method and value of intensive methods in agriculture. This book is +designed for the convenience of practical farmers who find themselves +under the necessity of making a living out of high-priced land.</p> + +<p>30. PRACTICAL DOG BREEDING, by Williams Haynes. This is a companion volume +to PRACTICAL DOG KEEPING, described below. It goes at length into the +fundamental questions of breeding, such as selection of types on both +sides, the perpetuation of desirable, and the elimination of undesirable, +qualities, the value of prepotency in building up a desired breed, etc. +The arguments are illustrated with instances of what has been +accomplished, both good and bad, in the case of well-known breeds.</p> + +<p>31. PRACTICAL DOG KEEPING, by Williams Haynes. Mr. Haynes is well known to +the readers of the OUTING HANDBOOKS as the author of books on the +terriers. His new book is somewhat more ambitious in that it carries him +into the general field of selection of breeds, the buying and selling of +dogs, the care of dogs in kennels, handling in bench shows and field +trials, and at considerable length into such subjects as food and feeding, +exercise and grooming, disease, etc.</p> + +<div class="figcenter"><img src="images/img15.jpg" alt="" /></div> + +<p>32. THE VEGETABLE GARDEN, by R. L. Watts. This book is designed for the +small grower with a limited plot of ground. The reader is told what types +of vegetables to select, the manner of planting and cultivation, and the +returns that may be expected.</p> + +<p>33. AMATEUR RODMAKING, by Perry D. Frazer. Illustrated. A practical manual +for all those who want to make their own rod and fittings. It contains a +review of fishing rod history, a discussion of materials, a list of the +tools needed, description of the method to be followed in making all kinds +of rods, including fly-casting, bait-fishing, salmon, etc., with full +instructions for winding, varnishing, etc.</p> + +<p>34. PISTOL AND REVOLVER SHOOTING, by A. L. A. Himmelwright. A new and +revised edition of a work that has already achieved prominence as an +accepted authority on the use of the hand gun. Full instructions are given +in the use of both revolver and target pistol, including shooting +position, grip, position of arm, etc. The book is thoroughly illustrated +with diagrams and photographs and includes the rules of the United States +Revolver Association and a list of the records made both here and abroad.</p> + +<p>35. PIGEON RAISING, by Alice MacLeod. This is a book for both fancier and +market breeder. Full descriptions are given of the construction of houses, +the care of the birds, preparation for market, and shipment. Descriptions +of the various breeds with their markings and characteristics are given. +Illustrated with photographs and diagrams.</p> + +<p>36. FISHING TACKLE, by Perry D. Frazer. Illustrated. The subtitle is +descriptive. “Hints for Beginners in the Selection, Care, and Use of Rods, +Reels, Lines, etc.” It tells all the fisherman needs to know about making +and overhauling his tackle during the closed season and gives full +instructions for tournament casting and fly-casting. Chapters are included +on cases and holders for the care of tackle when not in use.</p> + +<p>37. AUTOMOBILE OPERATION, by A. L. Brennan, Jr. Illustrated. Tells the +plain truth about the little things that every motorist wants to know +about his own car. Do you want to cure ignition troubles? Overhaul and +adjust your carbureter? Keep your transmission in order? Get the maximum +wear out of your tires? Do any other of the hundred and one things that +are necessary for the greatest use and enjoyment of your car? Then you +will find this book useful.</p> + +<p>38. THE FOX HOUND, by Roger D. Williams. Author of “Horse and Hound”. +Illustrated. The author is the foremost authority on fox hunting and +foxhounds in America. For years he has kept the foxhound studbook, and is +the final source of information on all disputed points relating to this +breed. His book discusses types, methods of training, kenneling, diseases +and all the other practical points relating to the use and care of the +hound. An appendix is added containing the rules and regulations of hound +field trials.</p> + +<p>39. SALT WATER GAME FISHING, by Charles F. Holder. Mr. Holder covers the +whole field of his subject devoting a chapter each to such fish as the +tuna, the tarpon, amberjack, the sail fish, the yellow-tail, the king +fish, the barracuda, the sea bass and the small game fishes of Florida, +Porto Rico, the Pacific Coast, Hawaii, and the Philippines. The habits and +habitats of the fish are described, together with the methods and tackle +for taking them. The book concludes with an account of the development and +rules of the American Sea Angling Clubs. Illustrated.</p> + +<p>40. WINTER CAMPING, by Warwick S. Carpenter. A book that meets the +increasing interest in outdoor life in the cold weather. Mr. Carpenter +discusses such subjects as shelter equipment, clothing, food, snowshoeing, +skiing, and winter hunting, wild life in winter woods, care of frost bite, +etc. It is based on much actual experience in winter camping and is fully +illustrated with working photographs.</p> + +<p>41. WOODCRAFT FOR WOMEN, by Mrs. Kathrene Gedney Pinkerton. The author has +spent several years in the Canadian woods and is thoroughly familiar with +the subject from both the masculine and feminine point of view. She gives +sound tips on clothing, camping outfit, food supplies, and methods, by +which the woman may adjust herself to the outdoor environment.</p> + +<p>42. SMALL BOAT BUILDING, by H. W. Patterson. Illustrated with diagrams and +plans. A working manual for the man who wants to be his own designer and +builder. Detail descriptions and drawings are given showing the various +stages in the building, and chapters are included on proper materials and +details.</p> + +<p>43. *READING THE WEATHER, by T. Morris Longstreth. The author gives in +detail the various recognized signs for different kinds of weather based +primarily on the material worked out by the Government Weather Bureau, +gives rules by which the character and duration of storms may be +estimated, and gives instructions for sensible use of the barometer. He +also gives useful information as to various weather averages for different +parts of the country, at different times of the year, and furnishes sound +advice for the camper, sportsman, and others who wish to know what they +may expect in the weather line.</p> + +<p>44. BOXING, by D. C. Hutchison. Practical instruction for men who wish to +learn the first steps in the manly art. Mr. Hutchison writes from long +personal experience as an amateur boxer and as a trainer of other +amateurs. His instructions are accompanied with full diagrams showing the +approved blows and guards. He also gives full directions for training for +condition without danger of going stale from overtraining. It is +essentially a book for the amateur who boxes for sport and exercise.</p> + +<p>45. TENNIS TACTICS, by Raymond D. Little. Out of his store of experience +as a successful tennis player, Mr. Little has written this practical guide +for those who wish to know how real tennis is played. He tells the reader +when and how to take the net, discusses the relative merits of the +back-court and volleying game and how their proper balance may be +achieved; analyzes and appraises the twist service, shows the fundamental +necessities of successful doubles play.</p> + +<p>46. *HOW TO PLAY TENNIS, by James Burns. This book gives simple, direct +instruction from the professional standpoint on the fundamentals of the +game. It tells the reader how to hold his racket, how to swing it for the +various strokes, how to stand and how to cover the court. These points are +illustrated with photographs and diagrams. The author also illustrates the +course of the ball in the progress of play and points out the positions of +greatest safety and greatest danger.</p> + +<p>47. TAXIDERMY, by Leon L. Pray. Illustrated with diagrams. Being a +practical taxidermist, the author at once goes into the question of +selection of tools and materials for the various stages of skinning, +stuffing and mounting. The subjects whose handling is described are, for +the most part, the every-day ones, such as ordinary birds, small mammals, +etc., although adequate instructions are included for mounting big game +specimens, as well as the preliminary care of skins in hot climates. Full +diagrams accompany the text.</p> + +<p>48. THE CANOE—ITS SELECTION, CARE AND USE, by Robert E. Pinkerton. +Illustrated with photographs. With proper use the canoe is one of the +safest crafts that floats. Mr. Pinkerton tells how that state of safety +may be obtained. He gives full instructions for the selection of the right +canoe for each particular purpose or set of conditions. Then he tells how +it should be used in order to secure the maximum of safety, comfort and +usefulness. His own lesson was learned among the Indians of Canada, where +paddling is a high art, and the use of the canoe almost as much a matter +of course as the wearing of moccasins.</p> + +<p>49. HORSE PACKING, by Charles J. Post. Illustrated with diagrams. This is +a complete description of the hitches, knots, and apparatus used in making +and carrying loads of various kinds on horseback. Its basis is the methods +followed in the West and in the American Army. The diagrams are full and +detailed, giving the various hitches and knots at each of the important +stages so that even the novice can follow and use them. It is the only +book ever published on this subject of which this could be said. Full +description is given of the ideal pack animal, as well as a catalogue of +the diseases and injuries to which such animals are subject.</p> + +<p>51. *LEARNING TO SKATE, by J. F. Verne. The general problem of the art of +skating is taken up from the standpoint of the man or woman who puts on +skates for the first time. Fundamental rules are laid down for learning +the simpler strokes, carrying the reader on through to speed and fancy +skating. Advice is included on the proper skates and clothing.</p> + +<p>52. *TOURING AFOOT, by Dr. C. P. Fordyce. Illustrated. This book is +designed to meet the growing interest in walking trips and covers the +whole field of outfit and method for trips of varying length. Various +standard camping devices are described and outfits are prescribed for all +conditions. It is based on the assumption that the reader will want to +carry on his own back everything that he requires for the trip.</p> + +<p>53. *THE MARINE MOTOR, by Lieut. Frank W. Sterling, U. S. N. Illustrated +with diagrams. This book is the product of a wide experience on the +engineering staff of the United States Navy. It gives careful descriptions +of the various parts of the marine motor, their relation to the whole and +their method of operation; it also describes the commoner troubles and +suggests remedies. The principal types of engines are described in detail +with diagrams. The object is primarily to give the novice a good working +knowledge of his engine, its operation and care.</p> + +<p> </p> +<p> </p> +<hr class="full" /> +<p>***END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK READING THE WEATHER***</p> +<p>******* This file should be named 39466-h.txt or 39466-h.zip *******</p> +<p>This and all associated files of various formats will be found in:<br /> +<a href="http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/3/9/4/6/39466">http://www.gutenberg.org/3/9/4/6/39466</a></p> +<p> +Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions +will be renamed.</p> + +<p> +Creating the works from public domain print editions means that no +one owns a United States copyright in these works, so the Foundation +(and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United States without +permission and without paying copyright royalties. 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Warren + + +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + + + + + +Title: Reading the Weather + + +Author: Thomas Morris Longstreth + + + +Release Date: April 17, 2012 [eBook #39466] + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: ISO-646-US (US-ASCII) + + +***START OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK READING THE WEATHER*** + + +E-text prepared by the Online Distributed Proofreading Team +(http://www.pgdp.net) from page images generously made available by +Internet Archive (http://archive.org) + + + +Note: Project Gutenberg also has an HTML version of this + file which includes the original illustrations. + See 39466-h.htm or 39466-h.zip: + (http://www.gutenberg.org/files/39466/39466-h/39466-h.htm) + or + (http://www.gutenberg.org/files/39466/39466-h.zip) + + + Images of the original pages are available through + Internet Archive. See + http://archive.org/details/readingweather00longrich + + + + + +READING THE WEATHER + +[Illustration: SHOWER BEHIND VALLEY FORGE + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_] + + +READING THE WEATHER + +by + +T. MORRIS LONGSTRETH + +Illustrated with Photographs by Richard F. Warren + +Outing Handbooks +Number 43 + + + + + + + +New York +Outing Publishing Company +MCMXV + +Copyright, 1915, by +Outing Publishing Company +All rights reserved. + + + + + DEDICATED + with love, to my grandmother + MARY GIBSON HALDEMAN + herself responsible for so + much sunshine. + + + + +CONTENTS + + + CHAPTER PAGE + + FORECAST i + + I OUR WELL-ORDERED ATMOSPHERE 11 + + II THE CLEAR DAY 20 + + III THE STORM CYCLE 42 + + IV SKY SIGNS FOR CAMPERS 64 + THE CLOUDS 65 + THE WINDS 76 + TEMPERATURES 86 + RAIN AND SNOW 99 + DEW AND FROST 112 + THE THUNDERSTORM EXPOSED 116 + THE TORNADO 129 + THE HURRICANE 133 + THE CLOUDBURST 139 + THE HALO 140 + + V THE BAROMETER 147 + + VI THE SEASONS 157 + + VII THE WEATHER BUREAU 167 + + VIII A CHAPTER OF EXPLOSIONS 175 + CONDENSATIONS 185 + SIGNS OF FAIR WEATHER 185 + SIGNS OF COMING STORM 187 + SIGNS OF CLEARING 189 + WHEN WILL IT RAIN? 190 + SIGNS OF TEMPERATURE CHANGE 191 + SOME UNSOLVED WEATHER PROBLEMS 192 + WHAT THE WEATHER FLAGS MEAN 193 + OUR FOUR WORLD'S RECORDS,--AND OTHERS 195 + + + + +ILLUSTRATIONS + + + Shower Behind Valley Forge _Frontispiece_ + + PAGE + + Cirrus Deepening to Cirro-Stratus 16 + + Cirro Stratus with Cirro-Cumulus Beneath 32 + + Cirro-Cumulus to Alto-Stratus 48 + + Alto-Stratus 80 + + Cumulus 96 + + Stratus 128 + + Nimbus 160 + + + + +FORECAST + + +Science is certainly coming into her own nowadays,--and into everybody +else's. Every activity of man and most of Nature's have felt her +quickening hand. Her eye is upon the rest. Drinking is going out because +the drinker is inefficient. The fly is going out because he carries germs. +And for everything that goes out something else comes in that makes people +healthier and more comfortable, and, perhaps, wiser. + +One strange thing about this flood-tide of science is that it overwhelms +the old, buttressed superstitions the easiest of all, once it really sets +about it. For instance, nothing could have been better fortified for +centuries than the fact that night air is injurious and should be shut out +of house. Then, science turned its eye upon night air, found it a little +cooler, a trifle moister, and somewhat cleaner than day air with the +result that we all invite it indoors, now, and even go out to meet it. + +Once interested in the air, science soon began to take up that +commonplace but baffling phase of it called the weather. Now, of all +matters under the sun the weather was the deepest intrenched in +superstition and hearsay. From the era of Noah it had been made the +subject of more remarks unrelieved by common sense than any other. It was +at once the commonest topic for conversation and the rarest for thought. +Considering the opportunities for study of the weather this conclusion, we +must admit, is more surprising than complimentary to the human race. But +it is so. The fact that science had to face was this: that the weather had +been and remained a tremendous, dimly-recognized factor in our level of +living. So talk about it all must. And science set about finding some easy +fundamental truths to talk instead of the hereditary gossip about +old-fashioned winters or the usual meaningless conversational coin. + +Two groups of men had always known a good deal about the weather from +experience: the sailor had to know it to save his life, and the farmer had +to cultivate a weather eye along with his early peas. But the ordinary +business man (and wife), the town-dweller, and even the suburbanite knew +so few of the proven facts that the weather from day to day, from hour to +hour, was a continual puzzle to them. The rain not only fell upon the +just and unjust but it fell unquestioned, or misunderstood. + +At last Science established some sort of a Weather Bureau in 1870, in our +country, and after this had triumphed over great handicaps, the Government +set it upon its present footing in 1891. An intelligent interest in the +weather was in likelihood of being aroused by maps, pamphlets, frost and +flood warnings that saved dollars and lives. Then suddenly, or almost +suddenly, a new force was felt in every community. It was the call of +outdoors. The new land of woods and lakes was explored. Men learned that +living by bread alone (without air) made a very stuffy existence. Hence +the man in town opened all his windows at night, the suburban majority +planned to build sleeping porches, the youngsters begged to go to camp, +their fathers went hunting and fishing in increasing numbers, and, most +important of all, the fathers' wives began to accompany them into the +woods. + +Thus, living has been turned inside out,--the very state of things that +old scientist Plato recommended some thirty thousand moons ago. And among +the manifestations of nature the weather is holding its place, important +and even fascinating. For the person who most depends on umbrellas and the +subway in the city needs to watch the sky most carefully in the woods. +That old academic question as to whether it be wise or foolish to come in +out of the wet was never settled by the wilderness veteran. The veteran's +wife settles it very quickly. She considers the cloud. When the commuter +goes camping he rightly likes his comforts. A wet skin is not one of +these. Therefore he studies the feel of the wind. + +And so it comes about that the person who talks about storm centers and +areas of high pressure and cumulus clouds is no longer regarded as +slightly unhinged. Men are eager to learn the laws of the snowstorm and +the cold wave; for, with the knowledge that snow is not poison and cold +not necessarily discomfort, January has been opened up for enjoyments that +July could never give. + +Bookwriting and camping are both explained by the same fact,--a certain +fondness for the thing. I wanted to see the commoner weather pinned down +to facts. The following chapters resulted. They constitute a sort of +Overhead Baedeker, it being their pleasure to show up the sureties of the +sun and rain and to star the weather signs that can be relied upon. For, +after all, even the elements, although unruled, are law-abiding. + + + + +READING THE WEATHER + + + + +CHAPTER I + +OUR WELL-ORDERED ATMOSPHERE + + +If there is anything that has been overlooked more than another it is our +atmosphere. But it absolutely cannot be avoided--in books on the weather. +It deserves a chapter, anyway, because if it were not for the atmosphere +this earth of ours would be a wizened and sterile lump. It would float +uselessly about in the general cosmos like the moon. + +To be sure the earth does not loom very large in the eye of the sun. It +receives a positively trifling fraction of the total output of sunheat. So +negligible is this amount that it would not be worth our mentioning if we +did not owe our existence to it. It is thanks to the atmosphere, however, +that the earth attains this (borrowed) importance. It is thanks to this +thin layer of gases that we are protected from that fraction of sunheat +which, however trifling when compared with the whole, would otherwise be +sufficient to fry us all in a second. Without this gas wrapping we would +all freeze (if still unfried) immediately after sunset. The atmosphere +keeps us in a sort of thermos globe, unmindful of the burning power of the +great star, and of the uncalculated cold of outer space. + +Yet, limitless as it seems to us and inexhaustible, our invaluable +atmosphere is a small thing after all. Half of its total bulk is +compressed into the first three and a half miles upward. Only one +sixty-fourth of it lies above the twenty-one mile limit. Compared with the +thickness of the earth this makes a very thin envelope. + +Light as air, we say, forgetting that this stuff that looks so thin and +inconsequential weighs fifteen pounds to the square inch. We walk around +carrying our fourteen tons gaily enough. The only reason that we don't +grumble is because the gases press evenly in all directions permeating our +tissues and thereby supporting this crushing burden. A layer of water +thirty-four feet thick weighs just about as much as this air-pack under +which we feel so buoyant. But if these gases get in motion we feel their +pressure. We say the wind is strong to-day. + +As it blows along the surface of the earth this wind is mostly nitrogen, +oxygen, moisture, and dust. The nitrogen occupies nearly eight-tenths of a +given bulk of air, the oxygen two-tenths, and the moisture anything up to +one-twentieth. Five other gases are present in small quantities. The dust +and the water vapor occupy space independently of the rest. As one goes up +mountains the water vapor increases for a couple of thousand feet and then +decreases to the seven mile limit after which it has almost completely +vanished. The lightest gases have been detected as high up as two hundred +miles and scientists think that hydrogen, the lightest of all, may escape +altogether from the restraint of gravity. One strange fact about all of +these gases is that they do not form a separate chemical combination, +although they are thoroughly mixed. + +At first glance the extreme readiness of the atmosphere to carry dust and +bacteria does not seem a point in its favor. In reality it is. Most +bacteria are really allies of the human race. They benefit us by producing +fermentations and disintegrations of soils that prepare them for plant +food. It is a pity that the few disease breeding types of bacteria should +have given the family a bad name. Without bacteria the sheltering +atmosphere would have nothing but desert rock to protect. + +Further, rain is accounted for only by the dust. Of course this sounds +very near the world's record in absurdities. But it is a half truth at +least, for moisture cannot condense on nothing. Every drop of rain, every +globule of mist must have a nucleus. Consequently each wind that blows, +each volcano that erupts is laying up dust for a rainy day. Apparently the +atmosphere is empty. Actually it is full enough of dust-nuclei to outfit a +fullgrown fog if the dewpoint should be favorable. If there were no dust +in the air all shadows would be intensest black, the sunlight blinding. + +But the dust particles fulfill their greatest mission as heat +collectors,--they and the particles of water vapor which have embraced +them. It is in reality owing to these water globules and not to the +atmosphere that supports them that we are enabled to live in such +comfortable temperatures. For the air strata above seven miles where the +tides of oxygen and nitrogen have rid themselves of water and dust absorb +very little of the solar radiation. The heat is grabbed by the lowest +layer of air as it goes by. The air snatches it both going and coming. The +little particles get about half of it on the way down and when it is +radiated back very little escapes them. + +So it comes about that the heavy moist air near the earth is the warmest +of all. It would, of course, get very warm if, as it collected its heat, +it didn't have a tendency to rise. As it rises, moreover, it must fight +gravity, that arch enemy of all rising things. And as it fights it loses +energy, which is heat. So high altitudes and low temperatures are found +together for these two reasons. But after the limit of moisture content +has been reached the temperature gets no lower according to reliable +investigations. Instead a monotony of 459 deg. below zero eternally +prevails--459 deg. is called the absolute zero of space. + +The vertical heating arrangements of the atmosphere appear somewhat +irregular. But horizontally it is in a much worse way. The surface of the +globe is three quarters water and one quarter land and irregularly +arranged at that. The shiny water surfaces reflect a good deal of the heat +which they receive, they use up the heat in evaporation and what they do +absorb penetrates far. The land surfaces, on the contrary, absorb most of +the heat received, but it does not penetrate to any depth. As a +consequence of these differences land warms up about four times as +quickly as water and cools off about four times as fast. Therefore the +temperature of air over continents is liable to much more rapid and +extreme changes than the air over the oceans. + +The disparity of temperature is also rendered much greater because of +differing areas of cloud and clear skies, because of interfering mountain +masses, because of the change from day to night, or the constant progress +of the seasons. At first blush it seems remarkable that the atmosphere +should not be hopelessly unsettled in its habits, that there should belong +to it any hint of system. As a matter of fact, in the main its courses are +as well-ordered as the sun's. Cause and not caprice are at the bottom of +the wind's listings. Its one desire is rest. + + +[Illustration: CIRRUS DEEPENING TO CIRRO-STRATUS + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_ + +Cirrus clouds first appear as feathery lines converging toward one or two +points on the horizon, often merging into bands of darker clouds, arranged +horizontally. A sky like this appears when there is little wind. If the +wind shifts to an easterly direction by way of north there will likely be +snow within 24 hours; if it works around by way of the southwest and south +36 hours will probably pass before rain. If the mares' tails, as here, are +absent and yet the stratified clouds are present there is little +likelihood of a storm. Cirrus clouds precede every disturbance of +magnitude. Sometimes they are hidden by a lower cloud layer.] + + +But rest it rarely succeeds in finding. Forever warming, rising, cooling, +falling, it rushes about to regain its equilibrium. With so many opposing +forces at work the calm day is the real marvel, our weeks of Indian Summer +the ranking miracle of our climate. The very evolution of the myriad +patches of air quilted over the earth with their different opportunities +to become heated, to cool their heels, precludes stability in our so +called Temperate Zone. But over great stretches of the earth's surface +conditions are continuous enough to discipline the atmosphere into +strict routine. Conjure the globe before your eyes and you will find the +scheme of atmospheric circulation something like this: + +A broad band of heated air perpetually rises from the sweltering +equatorial belt of lands and seas. The supply never ceases, the warming +process goes on night and day, and to a great height the light warm +incense mounts. Then, cooling, from this altitude it begins to run down +hill toward the poles. This is happening all the way around the globe. So +naturally the common centers, the poles, cannot accommodate all this +downrush of air. Therefore as it approaches the goal it falls into a +majestic file about the center, very much as water does in running out of +a hole in the center of a circular basin. The nearer north, the cooler +this vast maelstrom grows and the nearer has it sunk to the earth. It +descends circuitously and, by the force arising from the earth's rotation, +is sheered to the right in the northern hemisphere, to the left in the +southern. + +Watching the water circle out of the basin you will notice the outside +whirl is in no hurry to get to the center. This corresponds to the +easterly trades of commerce, geography, and fiction. The direction of the +upper currents flowing back to the poles is from southwest to northeast; +but in our middle zones this becomes almost from west to east, is constant +and is known to the profession as the prevailing westerlies. + +Look up some day when wisps of clouds are floating very high. You will +notice that their port is in the east, mattering not what wind may be +blowing where you are. They are above the petty disturbances of the +shallow surface winds. They follow a Gulf Stream of immeasurable grandeur. +Onward, always onward, they sail, emblems of a great serenity. + +Beneath this vast drift of air, which increases in velocity as it nears +the pole, is an undertow from two to three miles thick. It is the +movements of this undertow that affect our lives. These movements are +influenced by all the changes of temperature and by the configurations of +land. They take the form of whirls. These whirls may be small eddies, +local in effect, or vast cyclones with diameters of fifteen hundred miles. +Small or large they roll along under the Westerlies, translated by +friction, and invariably moving for most of their course in an easterly +direction, like their tractor above. They circle across the United States +every few days. Their courses do not vary a great deal, and yet enough to +make each one a matter for conjecture. And all the conjecturing centers +upon the condition of the atmosphere,--the changing atmosphere which is +yet so dependable. + +The weather we are used to, the daily weather that catches us unprepared, +and yet that does not mistreat us all the time is the product of these +little whirls, which are so remotely connected with the grander +atmospheric movements of our planet. Remembering this, we can at last come +back to earth and set about our real business which is to see why certain +kinds of weather come at such uncertain times and how to tell when they +will arrive. + + + + +CHAPTER II + +THE CLEAR DAY + + +We owe our fair weather to that department of atmospheric activity called +anticyclone by the weatherman. The anticyclone is an accumulation of air +which has become colder than the air surrounding it. This accumulation +oftener than not has an area near the center where the air is coldest. +About this coldest area the air currents revolve in the direction of a +clock's hands. And since this cold air is contracted and denser than its +warmer environment it has a perpetual tendency to whirl outward from the +center into this warmer environment. + +One comes to think, therefore, of the anticyclone as a huge pyramid of +cold air moving slowly across the country from west to east and all the +while melting down on all sides, like a plate of ice-cream, into the +surrounding territory. It is such an immense accumulation that often while +its head is reared over Montana the first shivers of its approach are +beginning to be felt in Texas and Pennsylvania. It does not extend +equally far, however, to the north and west of its head, which is really +sometimes where its tail ought to be. That is, a long slope of increasing +pressure and cold will sweep in a gentle gradient from Pennsylvania to +Montana and will then decrease by a very steep gradient to the Pacific +Coast. + +The anticyclone draws its power from the inexhaustible supplies of cold +air from the upper levels. This air is very dry and accounts for the +almost invariably clear skies of the anticyclone. + +In winter when the intensity of all the atmospheric activities is greatly +increased, the anticyclone develops into the cold wave. The rapidly rising +pressure rears its head and rushes along upon the heels of a storm like a +vast tidal wave at sixty miles an hour, tumbling the mercury thirty, +forty, fifty degrees. + +These cold waves first appear in the northwest. They cannot well originate +over either ocean and a high-pressure area building up over the southern +half of the country will not attain the sufficient degree of frigidity to +earn the title, for even cold waves have been standardized by the +Government. But although nearly all the cold waves choose Montana or the +Dakotas as a base, they have at least two definite lines of action. Those +which are born amid the mountains or on the great plains of Montana have a +curious habit of bombarding the Texas coast before starting on their +eastward march. It is not unusual for us to read of zero weather in the +Panhandle and freezing on the Gulf while the mercury may still be standing +as high as fifty in New York City. + +It is this rapid onslaught from Montana to Texas that produces those +notorious blizzards of that section called northers, during which the +cattle used to be frozen on the hoof. The record time for a drive of this +extent is about twelve hours and the normal about twenty-four which gives +scant time for the Weather Bureau to warn the vast interests of the +impending assault. When the cold wave, after following this path, does +swing toward the Atlantic Coast, as most of them do, it has lost interest +and usually produces only seasonably cold weather along the Appalachians. + +Those cold waves that recruit their strength in Canada and enter the +United States through Minnesota or, rarely, this side of the Lakes move +along the border and supply intensely cold weather for a night or two to +New England and the Middle Atlantic States. + +Cold waves almost always follow a storm. The storm, being an area of low +pressure makes a fit receptacle for the surplus of the high pressure, and +since the whole business of the weather is to seek peace and pursue it, +the greater the discrepancies the more violent the pursuit. Consequently +we have the spectacle of a ridge of cold dry air following and trying to +level up a fleeing hollow of warm moist air--but rarely succeeding. This +principle of action and reaction is almost the sole principle of the +weather and is nowhere more clearly demonstrated than in the winter's +succession of storm and cold wave. + +In summer the anticyclones are not only actually but relatively more +moderate than in winter. But their influence is still the same,--clear +skies, cooler nights, dry, westerly winds. During the year the anticyclone +furnishes us with about sixty per cent. of our weather. The cyclone is +responsible for the remaining forty per cent. The weather depends on the +cyclone for its variety and upon the anticyclone for its reputation. So it +is well to be able to recognize an anticyclone when one appears. + +The first and most reliable symptom of the approach of an anticyclone is +the west wind. This sign is valid the country over, and is one of the +very few signs that hold true for most of the North Temperate Zone. In +summer over our country the west wind comes from the southwest, to be +Irish, and in winter from the northwest. But for nearly all of our +forty-eight states for nearly all of the year the westerly winds are those +that bring us fair days and nights. And it is these crisp, clear days and +cloudless, brilliant nights which we have in mind when we boast to English +friends of our American weather. + +The west wind is so popular because it has a slight downward flowing +tendency. It also blows from land to sea over all America except the +narrow Pacific coast. These downward, outward directions allow it to +gather only enough moisture to keep it from becoming seriously dry. Its +upper sources supply it with ozone. Its density gives it weight and by its +superior weight it prevails. It dries roads faster than a brace of suns +could do it. It is tonic. And curiously enough, although the anticyclone +loads half a ton excess weight upon us we like it. The greater the burden +the more we feel like leaping and shouting. Our good cheer seems to be +ground out of us, like street pianos. + +The reverse holds, too. For when the anticyclone moves off us and the +cyclone hovers over us, removing half a ton of pressure, instead of +feeling relieved we feel depressed, out of spirit. The animals share this +reaction with us. In fact barnyards antedated barometers as forecasters, +because all the domestic creatures, with pigs in particular, evidenced the +disagreeable leniency of the low pressure areas upon their persons. + + "Grumphie smells the weather + An' Grumphie smells the wun' + He kens when clouds will gather + An' smoor the blinkin' sun." + +The only trouble about this rather extravagant tribute to the pig, +versatile though he is, is that he can tell only a very few hours ahead +about the coming changes and it takes so much more skill to judge what his +actions mean than to read the face of the sky that the science of +meteorology finally comes to supplant barnyardology. + +The coming of the anticyclone is foretold by the shifting of the wind from +any quarter to the west. The course that the center of the anticyclone is +keeping may be watched by the same agency. Since the circulation from the +cone of cold air follows the hour hands of a clock it follows that if the +center is moving north of you the wind, blowing outward from the center, +will work from west to northwest and from northwest to north and slightly +east of north. + +If the wind has shifted into the west on a Wednesday, it will likely be +cold by Wednesday night and colder on Thursday. By Friday morning the wind +will be coming from the north, likely, with the lowest temperature of all. +By Saturday the cold will moderate, the wind will tire and gradually die +to a calm or become weakly variable. The four day supremacy of the +anticyclone will be over. But, mind you, there are a dozen variations of +this routine. I am only suggesting a usual one. + +If after blowing two or three days from the west the wind shifts to the +southwest and south, you may know that the central cold area is passing +south of you and that its intensity will not be great. While these +anticyclones that float down and to the right of their normal path linger +longer, they are never so severely cold, nor, alas, so uniformly clear as +the others. It is a profound law of anticyclones and even more +particularly of cyclones, that if they deviate to the right they weaken, +if they are pushed by an obstacle to the left they increase greatly in +intensity. + +Occasionally the central portion of an anticyclone passes over your +locality. Then the wind will fall. The frost will be keen and the cold +will be notably dry and invigorating. In summer although the sunlight may +be powerfully bright and the heat great, yet the air will have a buoyant +effect, the body a resilience. And the nights will cool swiftly. Soon +after the center passes from the locality a wind will spring up from the +east with rapidly rising temperature and increased humidity. + +The coldest part of the anticyclone is not, as one would suppose, at the +center, but in advance of it; and its authority, like a schoolmaster's, is +rapidly dissipated after its back is turned upon a place. + +The intensity of an anticyclone is measured by its wind velocity and by +the degree of cold obtaining under its influence. But the greatest cold +occurs rarely in conjunction with the greatest velocity of the wind. The +calms that occur at sunrise enable radiation to take an extra spurt which +pushes the mercury lower by a degree or so than happens when the wind is +blowing. But, windy or calm, the period about sunrise is normally the +coldest of the day, even extending in midwinter for as much as half an +hour after sunrise, so slow are the feeble rays at restoring the balance +of loss and gain of heat. + +The greatest falls occur at the advent of the cold wave, no matter whether +it arrives at ten in the morning or at midnight. If the temperature +starts to decline gradually during the day, a further and decided fall may +be expected at nightfall if the sky is clear. And if the temperature rises +gradually during the night the normal processes are being displaced and a +change from fair to foul is a surety. In summer the hottest time of day is +not at noon, any more than the coldest part of the winter day was at +midnight, for the reason that the sun can pour in its heat faster than the +earth can radiate it, and the hour for the maximum temperature is pushed +as far along toward evening as four or five or even six o'clock. + +The average anticyclone continues its influence for clearness for about +four days. Some, however, hurry the whole thing through in two. Others are +interrupted by a more vigorous cyclone and are put to rout. Others are +held up by an inherent weakness and are forced to mark time over one +locality until strengthened or dissipated. And a few great ones hold sway +over the country for a week. These choose the north-center of the country +in which to locate. There they pile up the cold air until its very weight +causes it to move majestically on. Its skirts sweep the Gulf coast where +they are a bit bedraggled by invading cyclones. It gives the New +Englanders a fortnight of nipping, brisk days and the mercury in +Minnesota and the Dakotas does not emerge above zero. Once, in Montana, +one of these refrigerating systems established the record of sixty-three +degrees below zero. But in Siberia where the immense extent of the land +surface collaborates with a prolonged night, an anticyclone built up an +area of superior chilliness that left a world's record of ninety-one +below. + +In summer a succession of these highs causes the frequent droughts of +weeks which harass the West and New England. The air becomes so dry that +it parches and then shrivels the green leaves. Any little cyclones that, +under ordinary conditions, would suck in moist air from the Gulf and +relieve the situation with a rain are dried out and frustrated by the +unclouded sun. It requires a cyclone of great depth to overthrow the +supremacy of these summer anticyclones. + +While the anticyclone furnishes fair weather the sky is not necessarily or +even usually free from clouds under its influence. In summer the +evaporation during the long days overloads the air for the time being. +Normally about eleven in the morning little balls and patches of white +clouds dot the blue. These increase in number and size until about three +in the afternoon when they will have grown little black bellies and +fluffy white tops. By five they will have dwindled and by eight entirely +vanished. These heaped clouds, known as cumulus, are a guarantee of a +normal atmosphere and continued fair weather. They mean that currents of +warm, moist air have risen until they have struck a level so cool as to +cause them to condense part of their moisture. This condensation sinks +until it enters a warmer stratum and the cloud is dissipated. The total +movement is a reasonable exchange that preserves the equilibrium of the +air, very much as a person bends one way and then another to maintain his +balance. + +In winter there is not such an opportunity offered and the few clouds that +form because of the daily variation in temperature are flatter and are +called stratus clouds. Sometimes these stratus clouds may cover the sky at +midday, but in thin platings and not leadenly. In winter as in summer they +tend to disappear toward evening. They are often accompanied by an +unpleasant wind, but rarely by the snow flurry which is the "April shower" +of the winter months. + +But when the snow flurry does come there is no better sign for the +woodsman of coming cold; it never fails. The morning will have begun +brilliantly, but soon great summery puffs of cloud form and increase and +darken on their under sides. Their tops are vague and wear a veil. It is +the snow. The reason is simple. The coming anticyclone strikes the upper +air before it hits the earth's surface. The sudden cold causes rapid +condensation. Hence the flurries. But the anticyclone is an agent of +dryness, hence their short duration. Sometimes the veil of snow does not +reach the earth. Sometimes it blots out everything in a spirited squall. +But it never lasts long, except in the northwest states. And it is +invariably followed by a period of colder weather. + +In summer local evaporation may be so long-continued or so vigorous that +the cumulus clouds cannot hold all their moisture content when cooled. A +shower is the result, usually a trifling one and mostly without thunder. +The great thunderstorms are always in connection with the passing of a +cyclone. The small heat thunderstorms are only the indulgences of a spell +of fair weather. These tiny showers are daily and sometimes hourly +accompaniments of clear weather in the mountains. The air warms rapidly in +the valleys and is speedily cooled on rushing up a mountain side and a +threat and a sprinkle are the result. When a performance of this sort is +going on nobody need fear unpleasant weather of long duration. + +Another pledge of a clear day that does not appear too credible on the +face of it is the morning fog in summer. In winter it is a different +matter. In August and September particularly the rapidly lengthening +nights allow so much heat to evaporate that the surplus moisture in the +air is condensed to the depth of several hundred feet. By ten o'clock the +sun has eaten into this lowest stratum, heated it and yet begins to +decline in power before the balance swings the other way, so that a +cloudless day often follows a fog in those months. About three mornings of +fog, however, are enough to discourage the sun and a rain follows. Of +course this is because the anticyclone with its special properties has +been losing power. + +When these conditions of clear nights with no wind follow the first two or +three windy days of the anticyclone, particularly in autumn and spring, +frost results. In winter the chances that a fog will be dissipated are +rather slim. But if it shows a tendency to rise all may yet be well. + + +[Illustration: CIRRO-STRATUS WITH CIRRO-CUMULUS BENEATH + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_ + +The fine-spun lines of the cirrus proper drag this veil of whitish cloud +over the sky. The sun sometimes is surrounded by a colored halo due to the +refraction of the light by the ice crystals. But more often it vanishes +behind the veil. The mottled clouds below the veil show that a rather +rapid condensation of the moisture in the air is taking place. This sky is +distinctly threatening, although the direction and force of the wind will +more accurately foretell the severity of the coming storm. With this sky +expect rain or snow within 12 hours.] + + +An excellent sign of clear weather is this fact of the morning mist rising +from ravines in the mountains. And even if you haven't any mountain +ravines at command the altitude of clouds can be observed. It is safer to +have them lessen in number rather than increase, scatter rather than +combine. The higher the clouds the finer the weather. And if the sky +through the rifts is a clear untarnished blue the prospects of settled +weather are much better than with fewer clouds and a milky blue sky +beyond. + +After the direction of the wind and the shapes of the clouds the colors of +the sky are a great help in the reading of the morrow's promise. And the +best time to read this promise is in the morning or evening when the half +lights emphasize the coloring. + +Soon after the close observation of cloud colors has commenced the amazing +discovery is made that the same color at sunrise means exactly the reverse +of its meaning at sunset. + + "Sky red in the morning + A sailor's sure warning, + Sky red at night + A sailor's delight." + +Christ seized upon this phenomenon to throw confusion into the Pharisees +and Sadducees when they asked that He would show them a sign from Heaven. +As Matthew reports it:--"He answered and said unto them, When it is +evening ye say, It will be fair weather for the sky is red. And in the +morning It will be foul weather to-day for the sky is red and lowering. O +ye hypocrites, ye can discern the face of the sky; but ye cannot discern +the signs of the times." + +The reasons for this contradictory evidence of color are not nearly so +obvious as the fact itself. Taking the scientist's word for it need not +stretch one's credulity overmuch if he can be followed step by step. He +says that sunlight is white light, and white is the sublime combination of +every color. If no atmosphere existed about us the light would all come +through, leaving the sky black. The atmosphere, however, which is full of +dust and water particles, breaks up these rays, these white sheaves of +light, into their various colors. The longest vibrations, which are the +red, and the shortest, which are the violet, get by and the rest are +turned back, mixing up into the color which we call our blue sky. + +If the dust and water particles grow so large and numerous as to divert +more of the short rays than usual we get a redder glow than usual. This is +most noticeable when the sun and clouds are near the horizon for the air +through which they appear is nearer the earth and consequently dirtier. If +these water globules mass together so as to reflect all the rays alike the +result is a whitish appearance. That is why a fog bank, composed of tiny +droplets, each reflecting with all its might, can make the sky a dull and +uniform gray. + +As evening approaches the temperature of the normal day lowers. As the +temperature lowers it is the tendency of the moisture in the air to +condense about the little dust particles in the air. And as these +particles increase in size their tendency is to reflect more and more of +the waning rays of light. Therefore if the sky is gray in the evening it +means that the atmosphere already contains a good deal of condensed +moisture. If the cooling should go on through the night, as it normally +would, condensation would continue with rain as the likely result. + +If, on the other hand, after the evening's cooling has progressed and yet +the colors near the horizon are prevailingly red it means that there is so +little moisture in the atmosphere that the further increase due to the +night's condensation will not be sufficient to cause rain. Hence the +natural delight of the sailor. + +A gray morning sky implies an atmosphere full of water precisely as an +evening gray does. The difference lies in the ensuing process. By morning +the temperature has reached its lowest point and if this has not been +sufficient to cause cooling to the rainpoint the chance for rain will be +continually lessened by the growing heat of the rising sun. The gray, +therefore, is the normal indication of a clear cool night which has +permitted radiation and therefore condensation to this degree. It is for +this reason that we have the heavy fogs of August and September followed +by cloudless days. + +A red morning sky shows, like the red evening sky, that condensation has +not taken place to any extent. But this is abnormal for a clear night +causes condensation. The red therefore means that a layer of heavy moist +air above the surface levels has prevented the normal radiation. Hence +when the day's evaporation adds more moisture to that already at the +higher levels the total humidity is likely to increase beyond the dewpoint +with the resultant rain. + +These two color auguries are among the most reliable of all the weather +signs. Unfortunately the sunrises are scarcely ever on hand to be examined +except by milkmen. But a careful scrutiny of the sunset will make one +proficient in shades. In summer when the sun burns round and clear-cut and +red on the rim of the horizon the air contains much dust and smoke, the +accompaniment of dry weather. And as dry weather has a way of perpetuating +itself such a sun makes dry and continued weather a safe prophecy. In +winter the same red and flaming sun setting brilliant as new minted gold +is a sure indication of clear and cold weather. In all seasons the light +tints of the evening sky mean the atmosphere at its best. A golden sunset, +a light breeze from the west, a glowing horizon as the sun goes down, slow +fading colors all constitute a hundred to one bet for continued fair +weather. The sunset colors that are surely followed by storm will be +discussed in the next chapter. + +The sky is too little regarded. Architects that do not consider the sky +are behind in their calling. Maxfield Parrish has made himself famous by +allying himself with its seas of color. The hunter can read it and learn +whether he may sleep dry without his tent. Only we who shut ourselves +within rooms and behind newspapers forget that there is a sky--until it +falls and we are taken to a sanitarium. + +From the night itself much may be discovered about the continuance of fair +weather. A sky well sown with stars is a good sign. If only a few stars +are visible the clear spell is about over. Stars twinkle because of abrupt +variation in the temperature of the air strata. If the wind is from the +west cold and clear will result no matter how much may twinkle twinkle +little star. But if he twinkle with the wind from the south or east the +cloud will soon fly. That is the way with these weather signs. One sign +does not make a prophecy. It is the combination that has strength and +reliability. Furthermore the eye must be trained by many comparisons. + +Of all the conditions that make night forecasting easy the later evenings +of the moon are the best. The moon furnishes just the proper amount of +illumination to betray the air conditions. If she swims clear and +triumphant well and good. If she rides bright while dark bellying clouds +sweep over her in summer, inconsequential showers may follow. But if she +disappears by faint degrees behind a thin but close knit curtain of cloud +the clear weather is being definitely concluded. + +A great many changes in the weather take place after three in the morning. +Most campers are accustomed to waking anyway once or twice to replenish +the fire, and a glance at the stars will show the sleepiest what changes +are occurring in the eternal panorama. A man may have gone to bed in +security to get up in a snowstorm, whereas a survey of the skies at three +would have noted the coming change. The habit of waking in the dead of +night,--which isn't really so dead after all,--is not an unpleasant one. +Its compensations are set forth in a beautiful and vivid chapter of +Stewart Edward White's "The Forest." Every camper knows them, and this +added mastery that a knowledge of the skies gives him lends a sense of +power, which lasts until the unexpected happens. + +For the unexpected happens to the best regulated of all forecasters, the +Government. Equipped with every instrument and with an army whose business +is nothing else than to hunt down storms and warn the public, the Weather +Bureau is still surprised fifteen times out of a hundred by unforeseeable +changes in atmospheric pressure. It is scarcely likely then that amateurs +without flawless barometers and without reports of the current weather in +three hundred places could hope to foretell with complete accuracy. But +there is a place for the amateur, aside from his own personal +gratification and profit. The Weather Bureau within the limits of the +present appropriation cannot expect to predict for every village and +borough. That the amateur may do and with as great accuracy for the few +hours immediately in advance. + +The Weather Bureau may predict with this large percentage of +accuracy--85%--for forty-eight hours in advance because its scope is +country wide. It may even forecast in a general way for seven days and +still maintain a considerable advantage over almanac guesswork. But the +man who is relying upon local signs is limited to ten or at most twelve +hours. Of course he may guess beyond that but it is only a guess. The work +that the Bureau does and that he may do within his limits is not +guesswork. Meteorology is an exact science, and forecasting is an art. +Both may be studied now in classes under professors with degrees in the +same way that any other science and art may be studied. The old sort of +weather wisdom which was a startling compound of wisdom, superstition, and +inanity has passed away, or is passing away as rational weather talk +spreads. + +These limits of the layman--ten hours with no instruments--are further +defined by his locality. In mountainous country changes come more quickly +than in level localities, in winter than in summer, so that one's +prophetic time-limit is shortened. + +While the best indications of the clear day are the great fundamental +ones, there are many little signs that bolster up one's confidence in +one's own predictions. The lessened humidity coincident with clear weather +is responsible often for many little household prognostics. Salt is dry. +The windows (of your summer cottage) do not stick. The children are less +restless. Smoke ascends, or if the wind is blowing is not flattened to the +ground. Flies are merely insects, for the time being, and not the devil. +Swallows and the other birds that eat insects fly high because that is +where the insects are. Spiders do not hesitate to make their webs on the +lawn. They welcome dew but distrust rain. Cow and sheep feed quietly, +rarely calling to one another as they do before a storm. In short the +general aspect of these is normal and therefore remains unnoticed. + +But all these household prognostics may be advertising the most placid +weather while only twelve hours away and coming at sixty miles an hour may +be the severest storm of the season. The Weather Bureau with its maps and +barometers follows its every movement. The man in the woods whose comfort +in summer and whose life in winter may depend upon his preparedness for +the approaching storm does well to read its warnings and know its laws. + + + + +CHAPTER III + +THE STORM CYCLE + + +Doubtless those who hope for a Hereafter of unmitigated ease and song, +desire, on this earth, one long, sweet anticyclone. But theirs, in most of +the United States, is disappointment. With an irregularity that seems +perversely regular at times our fair weather is interrupted by a storm +which in turn gives way to some more fair weather or another storm,--there +is no telling which very long in advance. And that is why American weather +ranks high among our speculative interests. + +To emphasize this irregularity a seemingly regular succession of events +may be noticed. It will cloud up, let's say, on a Sunday, rain on Monday +and Tuesday, clear on Wednesday, staying clear until Sunday when it will +cloud up for the repeat. During this past season it rained on a dozen +washdays in succession. The newspapers grew jocular about it. And very +often one notices two or three rainy Sundays in a row. By actual +observation this year we enjoyed fifteen clear Thursdays in succession in +a normal spring. + +The weather gets into a rut. And if the anticyclones and cyclones were all +of the same intensity it is conceivable that the rainy Sundays might go on +until the Day of Rest was changed by Statute. But the intensities of the +whirls differ. Before long an anticyclone feebler than ordinary is +overtaken by a cyclone and annihilated. Or one stronger than the average +may dominate the situation for several days. Or the great body of cold air +in winter over the interior of Canada may send a succession of moderate +antis across our country making a barrier of dry cold air through which +the lurking cyclone can not push. + +Mostly, however, three days of anticyclonic influence and three days of +cyclonic influence with one day in between for rest, the transition +period, make up a normal week of it. Let the American farmer thank his +stars (and clouds) for that. For no other regions of the earth are so +consistently watered and sunned all the year round as the great expanse of +the North American Continent. + +The cyclone is that activity of the atmosphere which prevents us from +suffering from an eternal drought. The cyclone is an accumulation of air +which has become warmer than the air about it. This area of air usually +has a central portion that is warmest of all. Since warmth expands, this +air grows lighter and rises. Nature, steadfast in her grudge against a +vacuum, causes the surrounding air to rush it. Since these contending +currents cannot all occupy the central area at once they fall into a vast +ascending spiral that spins faster and faster as it approaches the center. +Imagine an inverted whirlpool. It is a replica on a much smaller scale of +the great polar influx, except that the latter has a descending motion. + +The cyclone thus is tails to the anticyclone's heads, the reverse of the +coin. Where the anti's air was cool and dry the cyclone's is warm and +moist. The anti had a downward tendency and a motion, in our hemisphere, +flowing outward from the apex in generous curves in the direction of clock +hands. The cyclone has an upward tendency, flowing inward to the core +contrariwise to clock hands. + +From these two great actions and reactions come all the varieties of our +weather. To understand the procession of the cyclones and anticyclones +across our plateaus, our mountains, our plains, and our eastern highland +is to know why, and often when, it will be clear or not. To mentally +visualize the splendid sweep of the elements on their transcontinental run +is to glimpse grandeur in the order of things which will go far to offset +the petty annoyances of fog or sleet. Ignorance may be bliss, but +knowledge is preparedness. + +The anticyclone suggests a pyramid of cold, dry air. The cyclone suggests +a shallow circular tank in leisurely whirl. But all comparisons are +misleading and a caution is needed right here. For a storm is not a +watering cart driven across our united skies by Jupiter Tonans Pluvius. It +is NOT a receptacle from which rain drips until the supply is exhausted. A +cyclone is a much more delicate operation than that. It is a process. It +can renew itself and become a driving rain storm after it had all the +appearance of being a sucked orange for a thousand miles. + +Suppose that our cyclone, this organization of warm, moist air with its +curving winds, enters the state of Washington on a Wednesday, from the +North Pacific. As early as the Monday afternoon before the wind throughout +all that section of the country would have shifted out of the west and +have started to blow in some easterly direction,--northeast in British +Columbia and southeast in lower Idaho. But since these winds are blowing +from the interior they are dry, and consequently rain does not fall much +before the storm center is near, that is on the Wednesday. If the storm +center passes north of Tacoma the winds, shifting by south and southwest, +bring in the ocean moisture and heavy rain commences which continues until +the rising barometer and westerly winds indicate the approach of another +anticyclone. So much for western Washington. + +As the cyclone passes eastward it mounts the Cascades and its temperature +is lowered, its moisture is squeezed out, and it stalks over Montana, the +mere ghost of its former self, as far as energy and rainfall are +concerned. To be sure it preserves its essential characteristics of +relative warmth, and inwhirling winds. But let it continue. As its +influence begins to be felt over Wisconsin and the Lake region the moister +air is sucked into the whirl and rain, evaporated from Superior, falls on +Minnesota. The east winds are the humid ones now, the west ones the dry. +Eastward the center moves, over Indiana, Ohio, New York, the rainfall +steadily increasing as the ocean reservoirs are tapped. + +The first time you tell a New Englander that his easterly storms come from +the west you are in danger, unless he be a child, for it is to the +children that one may safely appeal. Indeed it is the increasing number of +children who are learning these fundamental weather facts in the public +schools that the Weather Bureau relies upon for a more intelligent support +in the next generation. They teach their parents. These latter find it +difficult to believe, however, that the storms which hurl the fishing +fleets upon the coast in a blinding northeaster have not originated far +out at sea, but have come across the continent. For the safe handling of +boats knowledge of the rotary motion of storms is necessary that one may +be able to tell by the direction of the winds and the way they are +shifting where lies the center of the storm and its greatest intensity. + +In Tacoma when the wind shifted by way of southeast, south, and southwest +that was proof that the storm center was passing north of the city. +Likewise if in New York the winds shift by way of northeast, north, and +northwest the storm center is passing south of that city. As it drifts out +to sea it is gradually dissipated by the changing influences on the North +Atlantic. Very few of our storms ever reach Europe, although some have +been traced to Siberia. + +The Government has put its sleuths on the track of every storm that has +crossed the United States in the last thirty years. These weather +detectives with a thousand eyes have made diagrams of their actions, +mapped their courses, computed their speeds, and if we don't know where +all our discarded storms go to, we at least know where most of them came +from and how they acted when with us. + +About a hundred and ten areas of low-pressure affect the country during +the normal year. Of these all but seven, speaking in averages, come from +the West so that the Boston mechanic who will not believe that the +nor'easter comes via the Mississippi Valley is right about 7/110 of the +time. But even that small fraction is no exception to the general law, +because those seven storms are not born in Newfoundland but in our East +Gulf States. They come up the Coast, and the wind blows from the northeast +and north into their centers while they are still on the Carolina coast. +The great hurricanes which are cradled in the tropics and march westward +under the influence of the trades are genuine exceptions to the general +westward rule, although they always eventually turn toward the east. They +will be given the prominence they demand later, since the eastbound +schedule must not be sidetracked now. + + +[Illustration: CIRRO-CUMULUS TO ALTO-STRATUS + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_ + +The wispy edges of the cloud at the brightest part are cirrus, the fleecy +cloud at the extreme top is a thin alto-cumulus, and the dark base of the +sky is stratus. But this stratus is too high for that classification and +so they call it alto-stratus. This sky shows that the temperatures are +moderate, a cold sky being much better packed, and a warm one fluffier. +The fact that a veil of cirrus has not preceded the heavier clouds argues +that the coming storm will not be of much consequence. This sort of cloud +bank arising after a period of cold weather is the best possible +prediction of a thaw. Slight rain might follow within a few hours.] + + +Three cyclones a year form over the lower Ohio River basin. On account of +their origin over land instead of over water they rarely acquire much +energy. Once in a decade such depressions deepen rapidly. It was one of +these Ohio River storms that increased greatly in energy while moving from +West Virginia to the Jersey Coast that gave Philadelphia her Christmas +Blizzard, a surprise to her citizens and to the Weather Bureau, for most +of the snow fell with the mercury above freezing. The flare-back which +gave Taft his big inaugural snowstorm is another example of the way a +depression may deepen on approaching the coast. Until the upper atmosphere +is as well understood and watched as the lower, or until instruments are +perfected whereby the weather conditions can be made self-announcing such +surprises are absolutely unavoidable. Under conditions that warrant any +suspicion of sudden developments the Bureau at Washington is careful to +order extra observations in the areas likely to be affected, but no +surface observations can quite suffice. + +Fifteen storms a year originate over the west Gulf States, or, drifting in +from the Pacific over Arizona and New Mexico begin to acquire energy in +Texas. Twelve are set up over the Colorado mountains. These usually dip +down into Texas before starting their drive toward the northeast. After +both these sets of storms get under way they strike resolutely for the +same locality,--the St. Lawrence Valley. The conformation of the St. +Lawrence region provides an irresistible attraction for American storms. +Occasionally a very strong anticyclone holds that territory and pushes the +cyclone off the coast at Hatteras or even makes them drift across the +country to Florida. But such occasions are exceptional. Give the ordinary +cyclone its head, and, ten to one, you will find it on the way to the St. +Lawrence. The inhabitants will confirm this statement, I am sure. They do +not feel discriminated against in the matter of weather. They get nearly +everything that is going. Since they have to accommodate from seventy to +eighty cyclones in fifty-two weeks they have very little time to brood +over any one variety of weather. With the optimism of that section of the +country they say, "If you don't like our weather, wait a minute." + +Ten storms a year originate over the Rocky Mountain Plateau, north of +Colorado. About twenty cross over from the Canadian Provinces of Alberta +and British Columbia. And all our other storms, about forty each year, +enter our country from the North Pacific by way of Washington and Oregon. +Many of these drift across the northern tier of states without any great +display of energy, at least before they reach the Lake region. But the +majority loop down somewhat into the middle west as far south as Kansas, +and then make their turn toward the inevitable St. Lawrence. They usually +require four days to make the trip from coast to coast by this route, as +also by the more direct northern route, because on that they travel more +at leisure. But the storms from Texas, whose energy is greatest because of +greater heat and moisture, occasionally speed from Oklahoma to New York in +thirty-six hours. + +In summer all speeds are reduced. This is because the disparities in +temperature are less. In winter where greater extremes of temperature are +brought into conjunction the processes of the storm are all more violent. +And it is a bit disheartening to know that a storm is aggravated to even +greater endeavors by its own exertions. Its energy provides the conditions +to stimulate greater energy, and, like a fire, it increases as it goes. If +it did not run out of the zone which nourished it and proceed into another +zone where conditions were distinctly discouraging the limits of the +storm would be much extended, and vast territories would be devastated by +the self-propelling combination of wind and water. + +To the generality of us the word storm means rain. To the scientist it +means wind. In reality the cyclone is rare that crosses our country +without causing rain somewhere along its track. The curiosity of the +Weather Bureau to find out the paths of the storm centers is abundantly +justified because it is along these paths that the heaviest rainfall and +the severest winds occur. But whether or not there is precipitation on the +path of the cyclone it is rated as a storm if there is a lowering of +pressure and consequent wind-shift. + +The storm centers are not always well-defined, and quite often the +circulation of the wind about them is not complete. Such cyclones never +amount to much, although there is always the possibility of their closing +in and developing a complete circulation with the attendant increase of +energy. The incomplete cyclones over the desert and plateau regions are +lame affairs, lacking interest and advancing timidly if at all. But once +let them drift into a locality where they can be supplied with moist air, +they pick up energy, keep a definite course, and advance with increasing +speed. + +Very often the center will split up, the circulation perfecting itself +around both centers of depression. One of these will likely be over +Minnesota and the other over Texas and the organization will steam-roller +the states to the east in the manner of a gigantic dumb-bell. This +formation is more likely to have been caused by the two centers appearing +simultaneously than by a split in an original center. The weather reports +call this fashion of storm a trough of low pressure. The southern center +is the one that develops the more energy on its turn to the northeast. If +the two centers should unite on reaching the northeast a very heavy +precipitation is the invariable result. + +All cyclones have much greater length than breadth. They frequently +stretch from unknown latitudes in Canada into unrecorded distances into +the Gulf, while on the other hand it is a very large storm that rains +simultaneously upon the Mississippi and the Atlantic. Behind a cyclone of +pronounced energy a second whirl, called a secondary depression, often +develops, in which case the period of wet weather is prolonged. Also, more +rarely, an offshoot forms ahead of the main depression. + +A sluggish, sulky cyclone either in winter or summer provides more +opportunity to humanity for self-discipline than almost any other feature +of our national environment. In winter when the depression slows up it +settles down upon one community in the guise of fog, and stays by the +locality until an anticyclone blows in and noses it out. Fog is +aggravation, but a hot wave is suffering and the hot wave is caused by a +depression weak in character but generous in dimensions getting held up on +the northern half of our country. By its nature it attracts the air from +all sides, and being in the north, the direction of the wind over most of +the country would be southerly. Air from the west and north has a downward +tendency, but south and east winds are surface currents. Consequently +these winds, blowing over leagues of heated soil, become dry and parching. +If the depression lingers long the entire country to the east, south, and +west soon suffers from superheated air. At last the very intensity of the +heat defeats itself and the reaction to cooler is effected dramatically +through a thunderstorm. + +The well-developed cyclone in winter causes what we all know as a three +days' rain, although continuous precipitation rarely lasts over ten +hours. The rest of the time is occupied by general cloudiness with +occasional sprinkles and a final downpour as the wind shifts to the west +and the anticyclone nears. In summer the depressions, being shallower, +rarely cause continuous cloudiness for three days, although their +influence often lasts as long as that in the guise of a series of +thunderstorms. The line of storms extends several hundred miles, +bombarding all the towns from Albany to Richmond. These thunderstorms +sometimes achieve in an hour or two even greater results than their winter +relatives can accomplish in three days in the matter of rainfall, wind +velocity, and general destructiveness. Our wettest months are July and +August and not December and January. + +The freedom of the wind has been the subject of much poetic and prosaic +license. As a matter of fact the wind is the veriest slave of all the +elements. It is harried about from cyclone to anticyclone, wound up in +tornadoes, directed hither and thither by changing temperatures. It blows, +not where it listeth, but where it has to. And circuitously at that. For +once the path of duty is not straight. That is another fact that the +Boston mechanic would have been slow to accept,--that the wind blows in +curves. A little consideration, however, of the fact that the wind is +perpetually unwinding in great curves from the anticyclone and winding up +on the cyclone will show that nowhere can it be blowing in a perfectly +straight line. + +Thus it becomes the surest indication that a cyclone is to the west of one +if the wind blows from an easterly point. The storm is bound to move +toward the east, therefore the rapidity with which the clouds move and +thicken will signify when the area of precipitation will reach the +observer. The cycle of the storm is normally this: After a cloudless and +windless night a light air springs up from a little north of east. At the +same time strands of thin wavy clouds appear, very high up. They may be +seen to be moving from the southwest or northwest. Their velocity is +great. Their name is cirrus, and they are called mares' tails by the +sailors. They are followed by several hours of clear skies, usually; but +if the storm is smaller and close at hand there is no clear interval. + +Before the larger storms these cirrus clouds are sent up as storm signals +twenty-four and even forty-eight hours in advance. The day that intervenes +is very clear, the air feels softer, the temperature is higher. In +midafternoon more cirrus appears, and as condensation follows the quick +cooling the silky lines increase in number. Beneath them a thicker +formation, known as cirro-stratus, forms a dense bank in the west and +southwest. The sun sets in a gray obscurity. If there is a moon it fades +by degrees behind the veil of alto-stratus, and the halo which first was +seen wide enough to enclose several stars narrows until it chokes the moon +in its ever-thickening cocoon of vapor. + +There is no value whatever in the old superstition that the number of +stars within the halo foretells the number of days that it will rain or +snow. The same halo that encloses three stars at eight o'clock may have +narrowed down to one by midnight, or none at all, so that the prophetic +circle is bound in the very nature of its increase to contradict itself. +The presence of a halo is a pretty sure sign of some precipitation within +twenty-four or thirty hours. It fails about thirteen times in a hundred. +If the halo is observed around the sun it is an even surer sign, failing +only seven times the hundred. + +During the time of cloud-increase the wind will probably lull before a +snow, so that the hour or so before precipitation begins is one of intense +brooding calm. Or if there is no calm the wind, now easterly, will be very +gentle. Soon after the precipitation begins the wind will begin to +freshen and will continue to increase in velocity until the center of the +storm is close to the locality. This will require about eight hours for +the average storm. As storms vary an average is a very misleading thing +and the best way to judge of the length and severity of the storm is by +watching the wind. If it increases gradually the storm will be of long +duration. If the wind rises fitfully and swiftly it will not likely be +long but may be severe. If the wind reaches any considerable velocity +before the rain or snow begins the storm is sure to be short and severe. + +The color and formation of the clouds will tell when the precipitation is +about to begin. In summer, no matter how striking and black are the shapes +and shadows of the clouds, rain will not fall until a gray patch, a +uniform veil called nimbus is seen. In the little showers of April this +patch of unicolored cloud is there, as well as behind the great arch of +the onrushing thunderstorm. In winter raindrops are smaller and the +tendency of the clouds is to appear a dull, uniform gray at all times. But +the careful observer can detect a difference between the nature of the +clouds several hours before precipitation and their color immediately +before. + +When snow is about to fall no seams are visible. An impenetrable film +obscures all the joints. From such a sky as this snow is sure to fall. But +if seams are visible, if parts of the skyscape are darker than others, +then, no matter whether the temperature on the ground is below freezing a +rain storm will ensue. Very often these winter rains begin in snow or +sleet, but the clouds register the moment when the change from snow to +rain is to be made. The presence of swift-flying low clouds from the east +is a certain sign that the change to a temperature above freezing has been +effected in the upper strata of the atmosphere. This variety of cloud is +called scud, and accompanies rain and wind rather than foretelling it long +in advance. + +If the storm is approaching from the southwest the precipitation begins +near the coast about twelve hours after the cirrus clouds commence to +thicken and about twenty-four after they were first seen. In some +localities as much as thirty-six and even forty-eight hours are sometimes +required for the east wind to bring the humidity to the dew-point. Just a +little observation will enable one to gauge the ordinary length of time +required to bring things to the rain-pitch in one's own country. Of course +no two storms in succession make the trip under the same auspices and +with the same speed. The sign of the Universe should be a pendulum. +One period of cyclone, anticyclone, cyclone will traverse the country +rapidly. Then there will be a halt all along the line, and the next +series,--anticyclone, cyclone, anticyclone, will take three days longer to +make the crossing. Otherwise our weather would have a deadening +regularity. + +On an average our storms cross the country at the rate of about six +hundred miles a day. This is the average. Some delay, linger, and wait for +days over one locality. Others do a thousand miles in the twenty-four +hours. They thicken up enough to cause rain from two hundred to six +hundred miles in advance of their centers. It stops raining not long after +the actual center has passed. + +But for picnic purposes the storm is far from being over. For even though +continuous raining has stopped the low pressure still induces a degenerate +sort of precipitation called showers, or oftener mist for another twelve +hours (usually in winter). Then as the cooling influence of the +anticyclone approaches the rain recommences. This time it is not for long, +however, and is followed by permanent clearing, the wind shifting into the +west. Sometimes the change to blue sky is abrupt. But if the subsequent +anticyclone is not very well defined, cloudy conditions may linger for a +couple of days. Such clouds are usually much broken and show white at the +edges and never cause more than a chilly feeling. + +This attempt to outline the customary cycle of the storm,--clear sky, +cirrus cloud, wind-shift to the east, the denser cirro-stratus, the +pavement-like stratus, the woolly nimbus, the first continuous hours of +rain, the misty interval, the windshift to the west, the final shower, and +breaking cloud, the all-blue sky--this storm-schedule is always subject to +change. But the fundamentals are there in disguise every time. They only +have to be looked for and there is some satisfaction in penetrating the +disguise. + +When a storm comes up the Atlantic Coast, as happens a few times a winter, +the process is shortened, because the effects of the larger easterly +quadrants are felt only at sea. The most prominent recent illustration of +this type of storm was the severe snowstorm that swept the coast states +from Carolina to Maine the Saturday before Easter, 1915. Its calendar read +as follows: Friday, 8 P. M., cirrus clouds thickening into cirro-stratus. +Midnight, stars faintly visible, wind from northeast, 12 miles an hour. +Sunrise, stratus clouds, wind rising in gusts at Philadelphia to 30 +miles; 8 A. M., rapid consolidation of clouds with snow shortly after, +although the temperature at the surface of the earth was as high as seven +degrees above the freezing point. This rapidly dropped to freezing. Flakes +were irregular in size. Until one o'clock in the afternoon the snow +thickened with gusts of wind up to forty miles. Snowfall for five hours +was 14 inches, an unprecedented fall for this locality. + +Then the storm waned for five hours more, 5 inches more of snow falling. +Precipitation practically ceased at 6 P. M. By sunrise on Sunday the skies +were free of clouds and the wind blew gently from the northwest. + +Occasionally a high pressure area out at sea and beyond the ken of the +Weather Bureau causes one of these coast storms to curve inward to the +surprise of everybody. Occasionally, too, the transcontinental storms are +driven north or south of their accustomed paths. While the divergence may +be slight, it causes a margin of variance from the accuracy of the +Bureau's report. Then arises a second storm,--one of indignation--from all +the people on one side of the strip who carried umbrellas to no purpose, +and from the others,--who didn't. + +This pushing aside of the cyclone is caused by pressure variation that +only hourly reports from many localities could detect. Vast hidden +influences shift the weights ever so little and the meteorological express +is wrecked. But this happens, at most, fifteen times in a hundred, and +remembering the unseen agencies to be coped with people are refraining +more and more from the tart criticisms of former times, not in charity but +in justice, although there is small tendency yet to forward eulogies to +the Bureau in recognition of the eighty-five times it is right. + + + + +CHAPTER IV + +SKY SIGNS FOR CAMPERS + + +The weather-wise, even more so than poets, are born. But that only goes to +say that weather-wisdom can be fathered. For poetry and canoeing and the +art of making fires, once the desire for these things is born, may be +aided infinitely by observation and practice. Nobody can teach a man the +smell of the wind. But the chap who feels nature beating under his heart +can, by taking thought, add anything to his stature. So it is with those +who are called weather-wise. An unconscious desire, a little conscious +knowledge, a good deal of experimentation with the cycle of days, and you +have a weatherman. + +These chapters aim to put the little conscious knowledge into the hands of +the people with the unconscious desire, so that when they take their week +in the woods for the first time (and their month for the second time) they +may enjoy the shifting scenery of the sky-ocean and, incidentally, a dry +skin. For I take it that everybody will soon be camping. Maine and the +Adirondacks have become a family barracks. It is Hudson Bay for bachelors. +And over this expanse of woods and children the weather problem ranks with +the domestic one. For naturally if a soaking would endanger his vacation +the husband must not permit a rain,--unexpectedly. In all seriousness, it +is of avail to know the skies if one is going into the wilds just as it is +of avail to know what severed arteries demand, what woods burn well, and +what mushrooms can be eaten, even though one can get along without knowing +these things until perchance the artery is severed or the arched squall +catches one far from shore. + +At the very least, one grain of weather wisdom prevents a mush of +discomfort. And if, fellow-camper, the following observations gathered on +a thousand thoughtless walks do not tally (for the northeastern states) +with yours, write me, so that in the end we may finally contrive together +a completer handbook of our weather. + + +THE CLOUDS + +Clouds are signposts on the highway of the winds. Every phase of the +weather, except stark clearness, is commented upon by a cloud of some +sort. When danger is close they thicken. When it passes they disappear. +The aviators of the future will be cloud-wary. He who flies must read or +never fly again. + +The cirrus cloud is always the first to appear in the series that leads up +to the storm. It looks like the tail of Pegasus and for it the old +forecasters in their forecastles made a special proverb. + + "Mackerel scales and mares' tails + Make lofty ships carry low sails." + +These white plumes and scrolls which are in reality glistening ice-breath, +fly at the height of five, six, seven, and even eight miles. And as a sign +of coming storm they are about as infallible as anything may be in this +erratic world. They were born in the cradle of a storm. The storm center +was breathing warmed air upward to great heights, and although the disc of +the storm itself was only two or three miles deep, its nucleus, +crater-like, shot warm columns twice as far. With just enough moisture +content to make a showing against the blue these streamers flowed to the +eastward. At those dizzy heights the prevailing westerlies are in full +force, blowing from eighty to two hundred miles an hour night after night +and day after day. These westerlies caught the storm exhalations, the +streamers, and hurled them eastward at greater speed than the main body of +the storm. And that is the reason that we see these cirrus clouds always +eight, mostly twelve, often twenty-four and sometimes forty-eight hours +before the storm is due. + +Just a few strands of cirrus have little significance. They may be +condensation from a local disturbance, or a back fling from a past storm. +But if the procession of the cirri has some continuity and broadens to the +western horizon it is a sign about eight times in ten that a cyclone is +approaching. Occasionally the storm center is too far to the south or +north to cause rains at your locality, but the cirri bank up on the +horizon and their lacework covers the sky. If they appear to be moving +toward the region of greatest cloudiness it is not a sign of +precipitation. This condition is most apparent at Philadelphia when the +storm center over Alabama or Mississippi floats out to sea by way of +Florida without having the energy to turn north. Then the cirrus is seen +thickly on our southern horizon. Looking closely one sees that the cirri +are moving from the northwest, and are being drawn into the storm area +instead of proceeding in advance of it. + +Careful watching will sometimes enable one to tell whether the tails are +increasing or decreasing in size. If they dissolve it means that the +cyclone from which they were projected is losing strength because of new +conditions. Cloudiness may follow but no precipitation of consequence. The +plumy tails are expressive: pointing upward they mean that the upward +currents are strong and rain will follow; pointing downward they mean that +the cold dry upper currents have the greater weight and clear weather is +likely. In summer the cirrus cloud formations are not such certain advance +agents of rain because all depressions are weaker and less able to +confront a well-intrenched drought. As the proverb goes, "all signs of +rain fail in dry weather," and there is some truth in it. + +The fine wavy cirrus clouds often increase in number, develop in texture +until the blue sky has become veiled with a muslin-like layer of mist. +This is the cirro-stratus, and is a development of the cirrus, but it does +not fly so high. Its significance is of greater humidity and is the first +real confirmation of the earlier promise of the cirri. Another form that +the cirro stratus may assume is the mackerel sky,--clouds with the light +and shade of the scales of a fish. If this formation is well-defined and +following cirrus it is a fairly accurate storm indicator. It is not quite +infallible, however, as the same forms may be assumed when the process is +from wet to dry. + +The old proverb, "Mackerel sky, soon wet or soon dry," expresses this +uncertainty. If dry is to follow the scales will appreciably lessen in +size and perhaps disappear. If the cirro-stratus or scaly clouds are +followed by a conspicuous lowering it is only a question of a few hours +until precipitation begins. The cirro-stratus at a lower level is called +alto-stratus and this becomes heavy enough to obscure the sun. + +The cloud process from stratus on is slow or rapid, depending upon the +energy of the coming storm and the rate of its approach. In most cases the +clouds darken, solidify, and become a uniform gray, no shadows thrown, no +joints. Soon after the leaden hues are thus seamless the first snowflake +falls. If it doesn't it is a sign that the process of condensation is +halting: the storm will not be severe. Sometimes there is no precipitation +after all this preparation, but under these circumstances the wind has not +ventured much east of north. From the time that the snow starts the clouds +have chance to tell little. Only by a process of relative lightening or +darkening can the progress of the storm be followed and the wind, and not +the clouds at all, is the factor to be watched; for occasionally the sun +may shine through the tenuous snowclouds without presaging any genuine +clearing so long as the wind is in the east. + +But in summer the clouds become even more eloquent than the wind. The +rain-cloud, called the nimbus, becomes different from the dull winter +spectacle. In summer air becomes heated much more quickly and the warm +currents pour up into the cold altitudes where they condense into the +marvelous Mont Blancs (or ice-cream cones) of a summer afternoon. These +piled masses of vapor are cumulus clouds, and if they don't overdo the +matter are a sign of fair weather. They should appear as little cottony +puffs about ten or eleven in the morning, increase slowly in size, rear +their dazzling heads and then start to melt about four in the afternoon. + +But perhaps the upward rush of warm, moist air has been so great in the +morning that the afternoon cooling cannot dispose of it all without +spilling. Then occurs a little shower,--the April sort. Often in our +mountainous districts it showers every day for this reason. The great +thunderstorms come for greater reasons: they are yoked to a low pressure +area and represent the summer's brother to the winter's three-day storm. + +Cumulus clouds are called fair weather clouds until their bellies swell +and blacken and they begin to form a combination in restraint of sunlight. +Even then it will not rain so much out of the blackness as out of the +grayness behind it, and if there is no grayness chances are that you will +escape a wetting. One can almost always measure the amount of rain that is +imminent by the density of the curtain being let down from the rear of the +cloud. If you can see the other clouds through it or the landscape the +shower will be slight. If a gray curtain obscures everything behind it you +had better pull your canoe out of the water and hide under it if time is +less valuable than a dry skin. Such showers may be successive but rarely +continuous. + +Rain clouds have been observed within 230 yards of the ground. Very often +it can be seen to rain from lofty clouds and the fringe of moisture +apparently fail to reach the earth, because the condensation was licked up +and totally absorbed on entering a stratum of warmer air. The reverse of +this occurs on rare occasions;--condensation takes place so rapidly that a +cloud does not have time to form, and rain comes from an apparently clear +sky. This phenomenon has been witnessed oftenest in dry regions and never +for very long or in great amounts, although a half hour of this sort of +disembodied storm is on record. + +If the cumulus clouds of the summer's afternoon do not decrease in size as +evening approaches showers may be looked for during the night. And if the +morning sky is full of these puffy little clouds the day's evaporation on +adding to them will probably cause rain. A trained eye will distinguish +between a stale and fresh appearance in cloud formation, the light, newly +made, fresh clouds, like fresh bread, contain more moisture. If the clouds +have much white about them they need not be feared as rain-bearers. Clouds +are much higher in summer than in winter and the raindrops of warm air are +larger than those of cool. + +If cumulus clouds heap up to leeward, that is, to the north, or northwest +on a south or southwest wind a heavy storm is sure to follow. This is +notably so as regards the series of showers in connection with the passage +of a low-pressure area. The wind will bear heavy showers from the south +(in summer) for a whole morning and half the afternoon with intervals of +brilliant sky and burning sun. Or perhaps the south wind will not produce +showers, but all the time along the northwest horizon a bank of cloud +grows blacker and approaches the zenith, flying in the face of the wind or +tacking like a squadron against it. About the time that the lightning +becomes noticeable and the thunder is heard the wind drops suddenly, veers +into the west, and the face of things darkens with the onrush of the +tempest. + +Although no rain may have fallen while the wind was in the southern +quarter yet that constituted the first half of the storm and the onslaught +of rain and thunder the second. While the storm area moved from the west +to the east the circulation of air about the center was vividly +demonstrated by the south wind blowing into the depression, whose center +was epitomized by the moment of calm before the charge of the plumed +thunderheads from the northwest. + +Most camping is done either in hilly or mountainous country where the +movement of clouds is swifter and more changeable than over flat lands. +There is one sign of great reliability: if the mountains put on their +nightcaps the weather is changing for the wetter, and if clouds rise on +the slopes of the hills or up ravines, or increase their height noticeably +over the mountain-tops, the weather is changing for the dryer. In the +mountains where abrupt cliffs toss the winds with all their moisture to +heights that cool clouds form and condense rapidly and the weather changes +quickly. But even in the mountains the big changes give plenty of warning. + +Often clouds may be noticed moving in two or even three directions on +different levels at once. The upper stratum will probably be cirrus from +the west. Cumulus or stratus may be floating up from the south. A light +drift of vapor called scud may fly on the surface easterly wind. Such a +confused condition of wind circulation betokens an unsettled system of air +pressures and as frequent collisions of the air bodies at varying +temperatures are inevitable rains, probably heavy, will follow. + +On clear days one will be surprised to see isolated clouds, usually the +torn, thin sort, drifting across the sky from the east. A change will +follow soon. + +In winter black, hard clouds betoken a bleak wind. + +Clear winter days several times a season show a brilliant blue sky filling +with great cumulus clouds of dark blue, blurred at the top and gray at the +base. They will sprinkle snow in smart, short flurries, and are ushering +in a period of clear and much colder weather. + +A sky full of white clouds and much light is a cheerful sign of continuing +fair weather. + +The softer the sky the milder the weather and the more gentle the wind. It +is the dark gloomy blues that bring the wind. But do not mistake the +woolly softness of the rolling clouds before a thunderstorm. A sudden and +often violent gust follows. Tumbling clouds in any event should make one +wary of venturing on water. Summer drownings would not be so numerous if +the portent of the squall were heeded. + +To this data might be added many singular cloud formations that are not +observed often. The funnel shaped cloud of the tornado, the green shades +of the hurricane cloud, the green sky of cold weather showing out between +layers of steel blue, coppery tints that show before heavy storms +sometimes, variations of color at sunset each of which has a meaning which +practice in deciphering will make clear. But enough has been given to show +sky-searchers how many are the tips of coming weather that may be read +from a conglomeration of fog particles. Nobody with eyes should be caught +unawares by day. The look of the sunset shadows forth much of the coming +night. And throughout all this truth holds: the greater the coming storm +the longer and clearer are the warnings given to the watchful. + + +THE WINDS + +The wind is the ring-master of the clouds. It whistles and they obey. +Therefore to be windwise is to be weatherwise, almost. + +One can get a hold on the wind by learning to gauge its strength. Look at +the trees or the smoke from your city chimneys and guess how fast it blows +at eight o'clock in the morning, or eight at night. The weather report the +next day will tell you how nearly you were right. + +Beginning is easy; anybody can guess a calm. When the leaves are just +moving lazily the Weather Bureau calls it a light or gentle breeze, moving +from 2 to 5 miles an hour. A fresh breeze, from 6 to 15 miles will stir +the twigs at first and finally swing the branches about. From 16 to 25 +miles, a brisk wind, will cause white caps on the lakes, tossing the tops +of the trees, but breaking only small twigs. Increasing from 26 to 40 +miles it becomes a high wind that breaks branches on trees, wrecks signs +in the towns, causes high waves at sea and roars like the ocean in heavy +squalls through the woods. From 40 to 60 miles an hour makes a gale. +Sailing craft are now in danger. The pressure at 50 miles an hour is 13 +pounds to the square foot, having risen from three-quarters of an ounce at +3 miles. This pressure becomes 40 pounds per foot when the wind reaches a +velocity of 90 miles. + +At 60 trees are uprooted, chimneys may go, it is difficult to walk +against, the noise becomes very great but rather inspires than frightens. +As the gale increases from 60 to 80 (which velocity the Bureau rather +weakly calls a storm wind), danger rapidly increases. Trees are +prostrated, the uproar becomes terrifying, walking without aid is +impossible, the great ocean liners are in danger, the sea becomes a +whitened surface of driving spume that heaps up into piles of water thirty +or more feet high, windows are blown in and frame houses cannot stand much +greater velocities. Anything from 80 miles an hour up is well called a +hurricane. Everything goes at 100. At Galveston the machine that +registered the wind velocity blew away at 100. + +They have better instruments now, and in many places velocities of over a +hundred miles an hour have been recorded. As high as 186 miles was +registered on the top of Mt. Washington, and in a single gust 110 at +Montreal. The great hurricane winds are most felt at a few of the exposed +places on our coasts. Cape Mendocino, on the Pacific, has 144 miles an +hour to its credit in a January hurricane. But enough destruction is done +at 90 miles. Fields are stripped of their crops, or leveled; houses are +demolished unless they are specially built, like the New York +sky-scrapers, to withstand much higher velocities. In the small whirling +storms called tornadoes the wind is estimated to reach a velocity of 200 +to 500 miles, and nothing but the cyclone cellar will shelter one from the +fury of the elements when they are really unleashed. + +The higher one goes the greater the velocity of the wind. On the top of +Mt. Washington 100 miles is rather common for hours at a time and 150 is +recorded now and then. That is only 6000 feet above Boston. If such a +force struck Boston for a minute it would be blown _en masse_ into the +Bay. + +Velocities on land are less than those at sea, because of the resulting +friction from obstacles. Velocities in summer are lower (thunder gusts +excepted) than in winter. Since the wind is caused by differences in +atmospheric pressure, and that in turn by disparities in temperature, +winter holds the palm for greater velocities because the wide whirl of a +cyclone over the great plains may cause to mix air from Texas with a +temperature of 60 degrees with air from Montana of 30 degrees below zero, +while the summer temperatures in both states might easily be 80 degrees. + +Throughout most of our land certain winds have always the same bearing +upon the weather and this correspondence is roughly the same over most of +the country. West winds, for instance, are an almost universal guarantee +of clear weather. The Pacific Coast and western Florida are the +exceptions. + +Northwest winds bring clear skies and cool weather everywhere. In winter +in the north plateau section heavy snows arrive in advance of the severe +cold waves that come on these northwest gales. + +North winds are the cold bearing ones. Clear skies prevail under their +influence. + +Northeast winds are cold, raw snow-bearing winds in winter and spring and +bring chilly rains in midsummer. + +East winds are the surest rainbringers of all for the eastern two-thirds +of the country, and are soon followed by rain with a shift of wind over +the other third. Their temperatures are more moderate than those of the +northeast storms. + +The greatest falls of rain occur, however, with the southeast winds, whose +moisture content is greater than that of the others because they are +warmer and blow off water except in Rocky Mountain districts. + +South winds are warm and contain much moisture, which falls in showers +rather than in continuous rains. + +The southwest winds of winter precede a thaw and are much damper than west +winds. In summer over much of our country they are hot, parching winds +that injure vegetation. + +The average velocity of the wind from these different quarters is variable +in different parts of the country, the severest being on the southeast and +northwest quadrants. The highest winds are always where the steepest +gradients are; that is, where the barometric pressure decreases or +increases the fastest. The steepest gradients are usually on the northeast +and northwest sides of the storm center, with the exception of the +Atlantic Coast where the southeast winds are often highest. The average +for the northeast quadrant is 16 miles, for S. E. 30, for S. W. 20, and +for the N. W. 30 miles an hour. But averages can deceive. As a matter +of fact single instances of great wind velocities occur from each point of +the compass. The greatest velocity ever recorded at Philadelphia occurred +in October, 1878, when the wind blew seventy-five miles an hour from the +southeast. But the record velocities for eight of the other months were +registered in the northwest quadrant. + + +[Illustration: ALTO-STRATUS + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_ + +Not so high as cirro-stratus, and yet partaking of the same skeiny +texture. This would be a normal sky in winter about six hours after the +veil of cirrus had begun to throw its haze about the sun. No other cloud +formations appear, however, and so the area of precipitation is still +pretty far away. In summer such a sky is less common. If the disturbance +is to amount to anything the cirro-cumulus will soon form. If the wind is +from a westerly quarter the blanket of cloud is doubtless a drift from +some distant storm, which will not affect this locality. The wind is +always blowing toward a storm and away from clear weather.] + + +The period of time when the barometer is beginning to rise after having +been very low is that when the strongest winds blow. + +Some sections of our country have special kinds of wind that are +peculiarly their own, notably Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana where the +chinook reigns. This phenomenon belongs only to the cold season and only +to the coldest days of it. It is a warm wind that begins to blow without +much warning from the southern quarter. It is caused by a body of cold air +suddenly falling from a great height. As it falls its descent heats it and +it causes a rise in the temperature of the surrounding locality that +greatly exceeds any rise from other causes. The increase in temperature +will be as much as forty degrees in fifteen minutes. + +This sudden dry heat is a great snow-eater. If it were not for the chinook +the snow-blanket would stay so much longer on the cattle ranges that they +would be useless as such. In northeastern sections of our country and +Canada the warm winds blowing in from the ocean at the approach of a +cyclone do away with the snow rapidly but with nothing like the speed of +the chinook. + +Another phenomenon of the air that is of tremendous benefit to man is the +sea-breeze. During the intense heat of a hot wave the wind may shift to +the east in Boston and in fifteen minutes coats are comfortable. Such a +shift may bring relief to a strip of land two hundred miles wide along our +entire eastern seaboard. The sea-breeze is explained by the fact that the +land cools more quickly than the sea and also warms more easily. During +the whole forenoon of a summer's day the sun has been pouring upon land +and sea, but the land-air has become much hotter than the air over the +sea. It rises and the sea-air rushes landward. By midnight the land has +cooled off even more than the sea and the heavier air now presses out to +sea again. On every normal day this balancing process takes place. + +If it doesn't conditions are abnormal and chances are that mischief is +brewing. This ebb and flow of warmer and cooler air is, on a small scale, +exactly what is happening on a vastly larger field of operations between +cyclone and anticyclone. And it is the dominance of the anticyclone with +its prolonged rush of air from the northwest that interrupts the sea +breeze for two or three days in winter, as the cyclone prevents the night +land breeze from taking place when it is central off the eastern coast. + +The exchange of air between mountain side and valley is similar to the +land-and-sea breeze. The rarer air on the mountain side heats faster by +day and cools faster by night than the denser air in the valley. Therefore +during the day it rises and the valley air rushes up to take its place; +during the night it cools and sinks into the valley. This is a great help +when one is shut up in a secluded valley for several days and cannot get a +good view of the skies. The atmosphere is acting properly and will remain +settled so long as the air blows up your ravine for most of the day, and +turns about sundown and blows out and down the ravine like a flood of +refreshing water. + +Of course many valleys are so large as to be affected, not by these local +causes, but by the larger movements of the anticyclones when the +sure-clear west wind may blow up the valley for three days at a time. But, +nevertheless, for most mountainous places the logic holds and you may +expect rain if the wind does not blow coolly down the ravine at night. Of +course watch your clouds for confirmation. + +In times of calm prepare for storm. An eminent meteorologist has frowned +upon me for saying that. It is not the whole truth, I admit, but there is +a certain kind of calm which happens often enough to justify the remark. +It happens this way. A severe storm has passed. The customary anticyclone +with its brisk northwest winds has arrived and is blowing with all the +vigor necessary to induce one to believe that the clear weather is to +continue for the usual length of time; that is, three or four days. But +suddenly in the early afternoon, just when it should be blowing its +hardest, the wind drops, lulls, shows a tendency to change its direction. +There is only one explanation. Another cyclone has developed off in the +west. It has knocked the anticyclone on the flank, taken the teeth out of +the gale. + +The wind shows this before clouds can. The absence of wind when there +ought to be a lot shows it before even the first cirrus swims overhead. +The chance is that when the flow of anticyclonic air has been thus rudely +cut off and stillness follows, it will be storming by morning. It is best +to keep an eye on these abnormal, precipitous calms. In times of peace +prepare for rain. + +But the eminent meteorologist was eminently right when he said that the +statement was misleading unless explained. For there are many kinds of +calms that do not portend coming storms. Nearly every day, winter and +summer, but particularly in summer, the wind drops to a calm at sunset. +That is a time of adjustment. After sunset when the accounts are all in +the wind springs up with as much force as it had in the afternoon and +continues until dawn. At sunrise, however, there is another truce. If this +truce is neglected either at sunrise or at sunset it is a sign that either +a cyclone on an anticyclone is very much in the ascendency. These truces +are most often observed at the seashore when you are out sailing and the +smell of supper fills your nostrils but is not sufficient to fill your +sails. These calms are normal and the best sign of a fair day on the +morrow, provided the other signs agree. + +During the great transition period from summer to winter comes that +autumnal truce, Indian Summer, which is the chief claim to fame of +American weather. For day after day a brooding haze sleeps in the air, +sometimes for weeks there is no wind of any strength. Winter advances +insidiously in the fall but retreats in commotion, and the cooling off +process permits of these still days while they are uncommon in the spring. +The wind checks off more mileage in March than in any other month. + +While the regular day's end calm and the calm of the year's exhaustion +mean continued fair weather, there is one calm that everybody knows, which +is the most dramatic moment in the whole repertory of the weather: the +foreboding, ten-count wait before the knockout blow of the thunderstorm. +But when that calm comes every one is already sitting tight so that it is +not much account as a warning. They say that the intense stillness before +the hurricane strikes is uncanny. + +Whether inshore or afloat the wind is to be watched if you would know what +weather is to be. It is only another of Nature's paradoxes that the most +unstable element should be the most reliable guide of all on the uncertain +trail of the next day's weather. + + +TEMPERATURES + +Considering that the temperature of the sun is 14,072 degrees Fahrenheit +and the temperature of space is absolute zero, 459 degrees below ours, we +do very well on earth to be as comfortable as we are. + +And we owe it all to the atmosphere which keeps the sun from concentrating +upon us. Our place in the sun is so very small that we intercept only +one-half of one billionth of the heat which it is giving off night and +day. But that is sufficient to do a lot of damage if it could get at us. + +But even the paltry range of temperatures so far recorded on our +planet,--from 134 degrees above zero one day in California, to 90 degrees +below zero one night in Siberia,--is by no means a fair statement of the +extremes we are called upon to bear. Only twice a decade in our country +does the mercury vary as much as sixty degrees in twenty-four hours, and +there are vast areas where the daily change amounts to only a few degrees. + +The changes that do come so suddenly to us, particularly in winter and +that are known as cold waves, are in reality beneficial. To them we +Americans may owe our energy, our vivacity, our changeability of mood. The +refrigerated, revivified air sweeping down from the north is tonic. It is +heavy, and issuing from antiseptic altitudes, drives the humid, +germ-nursing air from our city streets. If we had arranged a process of +refreshment like this at vast expense we should have been intensely proud +of it. As it is we are intensely annoyed at it and occasionally a few +people are frozen to death. The Weather Bureau warnings and the coal clubs +are reducing the loss in property and lives. + +If you are sleeping out it is of great importance to know when the mercury +is going to take one of these swoops, for sleeping cold means little real +rest because one's muscles are tense, and the next day's packing needs all +the relaxation one can get. Two generalizations govern pretty much every +change of temperature: the mercury will rise before a storm and it will +fall after one, winter and summer, but much more conspicuously in winter. + +There are two reasons for this. Our cyclones usually cross our country +over such a northern track that over most of the country the air drawn +into them comes from the southern quarters and is therefore warmer than +the air previously flowing from the anticyclone. Also the process of +precipitation causes heat. This is true to such an extent on the coast of +Ireland where it rains most of the time that a scientist has computed that +the inhabitants get from one-third to one-half as much heat from the +rainfall as they do directly from the sun. Thus a normal storm is doubly +sure to warm up the environment. + +In summer the reverse is partially true, for very often the rain does not +begin until the actual center of depression has passed and the west winds +have begun to exercise their cooling influence. So that in summer we have +a sultry, sunny day as the first half of the storm area and then a cooling +shower. Also after two or three days of warm weather in spring and autumn +we have a rainstorm of the winter type which lowers the temperature +instead of raising it. This is because the heat produced by the storm is +less than that of the sun's rays intercepted by the clouds. The clear +skies of the preceding anticyclone had permitted the land to warm up very +fast under the midsummer sun, and the clouds of the cyclone, by cutting +off the supply, had made a relative chill. + +In winter the sunrays are so much feebler because of their slant and +radiation proceeds so rapidly under the dry air of the anticyclone that a +much greater degree of cold is produced than when the cyclonic clouds +prevent the radiation. Therefore the rainy area is the warmest of all. +Even in summer the winds from the southeast, south, and southwest are +warmer than those from the opposite quarters, not only because they blow +from a quarter naturally warmer on account of the sun, but because they +are surface winds and have absorbed some of the heat from the soil. Being +denser, they absorb it more readily and hold it longer. + +The change, then, from the period of fair weather to that of storm brings +an increase of temperature. But the rate of increase varies. The faster +the storm is approaching the faster the temperature will rise; and the +route of the storm's center makes all the difference as to the amount of +the rise. If the wind shifts by way of the north and holds in the +northeast until precipitation begins the rise in temperature will be very +slight. The great snowstorms of the northern half of the country occur +under just such a circumstance. If the wind shifts by way of the north but +gets around to the east or even southeast before the precipitation starts +the rise in temperature will be more pronounced, as much as thirty degrees +sometimes in a few hours, and the winter storm that started in as snow +soon changes to sleet and rain. + +If the wind shifts by way of the south and then into the southeast the +rise will be vigorous and the storm will likely be a comparatively warm +rain. If the wind shifts only so far as the south the rise will be highest +of all and blue sky will often appear between the showers, showing that +the air is heated to a considerable height. + +The progress of the temperature changes from the maximum of the cyclonic +area to the minimum of the anticyclone is also dependent upon the wind. If +the storm center is passing south and the wind begins to pull into the +northeast and north the temperature will fall steadily and slowly. The +rain or snow often cease gradually by the time the wind has reached the +north, but the temperature continues to fall slowly until it reaches very +low levels in mid-winter. If the storm center is passing north of you the +wind which has brought most of the rain while it was in the southeast with +comparatively high temperatures swings into the southwest, the temperature +falls somewhat. + +There is usually a final downpour and a rapid shift of the wind into the +west or northwest, but almost never directly into the north. The +temperature falls several degrees in a few minutes, quite unlike the +gradual decline of the northeast-by-north shift, and clear skies come at +once with rapidly diminishing temperatures. In the vicinity of +Philadelphia a fall of twenty-five degrees would be most unusual on the +northeast shift,--such storms reaching 38 degrees and falling to 15, +while with the other shift a fall from 55 degrees to 15 would not be +unusual. Of course any one set of figures given could only show the +tendency and not the rule or limits. + +After the manner of the wind-shift the intensity of the storm is a good +gauge of the temperature change to be expected by the camper. As a rule +the greater the intensity of the storm the greater will be the degree of +cold that follows it. The storms that have a complete wind circulation +about them are always more severe than those with incomplete circulation +and are invariably followed up by some reduction in temperature. If the +decrease is not proportionately great and the subsequent wind has only a +moderate clearing quality look out for another cyclone. + +In such a case the temperature is the best witness of the contemplated +change. For instance, after a summer thunderstorm a decided coolness is +_de rigeur_. If this does not occur it means nearly every time that there +is another thunderstorm in process of construction. There may be not a +cloud in the sky, there may be no wind (although there should be) so that +the course of the thermometer is the only means of telling what is to be +the next event. Anybody can take a thermometer with him although a +barometer--the most accurate forecaster of all--may be thought too much +expense and bother. + +At some future date the Weather Bureau will be able to predict the +temperature of seasons in advance. This, together with the amount of rain +scheduled to fall, will be an invaluable aid to everybody and to the +farmers most of all. At present mild seasons that have severe storms +without the appropriate degree of cold after them cannot be entirely +explained, let alone being prediscovered. They all hinge upon the more or +less permanent areas of high and low air pressure over the oceans and +international meteorological service has not progressed far enough to +support many ocean stations as yet. + +Sometimes clear weather may intensify, growing brighter, stiller, colder. +This is because the pressure is increasing. Cold seasons are distinguished +usually by a succession of anticyclones. There is no way of telling how +long a certain spell of cold weather is to last, but I have noticed that +the same characteristics rarely predominate for longer than a month at a +time. In other words, if December has been warm and rainy, January will +likely be cold and dry. Of course, that is precisely the unscientific sort +of generalization which the Bureau very rightly frowns upon, but which +one may nurse privately until science has provided a substitute as she +already has in so many instances. + +With a little practice it is an easy matter to estimate the temperature to +within a very few degrees. Try guessing for a few mornings and then look +at the thermometer. You will hit within three degrees every time after a +week of this. + +Allowance must be made for the amount of moisture in the air and for the +force of the wind. Damp air feels colder by several degrees than crisp, +dry air, and a breeze increases the difference still more. Air in motion +is not necessarily colder than calm air. As a matter of fact the lowest +temperatures of all are recorded about sunrise after a still, clear night. +The amount of radiation accomplished during the last hours of the night is +amazing, and the downward impetus of the thermometer is often carried on +for an hour or more after the sun has appeared above the horizon. A +self-recording thermometer is an amusing toy which will show this and +becomes a valuable instrument if one raises fruit. + +In winter three o'clock of an afternoon sees the highest temperature +usually, and in summer this maximum occurs as late as half-past five, due +to the fact that the sun can pour in its heat faster than the earth can +radiate it off. For the half hour before and after sunset, particularly in +winter, the loss of heat is relatively greatest; then the pace slackens +till three or four in the morning, when the plunge of the mercury is +accelerated until the rays of the rising sun counteract the radiation. + +If the mercury does not rise appreciably on a clear winter's day it is a +sign that a cold wave is stealing in, due, doubtless, to a gradual +increase in pressure without its customary bluster. Very often snow +flurries predict its approach, but this may be so gradual that only the +restriction of the daily thermal rise may indicate it. By the next morning +the temperature will likely be twenty degrees colder. + +If the mercury does not fall on a clear winter's night it is a sign that a +layer of moist air not far above the surface of the earth is checking the +normal night radiation. Unsettled weather is almost sure to follow unless +this wet blanket is itself dissipated and the mercury takes its customary +tumble before morning. + +If the temperature falls while the sky is still covered with clouds +clearing, possibly after a little precipitation, will soon follow. + +Hot waves approach insidiously. A night will not cool off as it properly +should, the sun will rise coppery, and while the day is yet young +everybody begins to realize that all is not exactly right. But the heat +increases usually for several days, not only by reason of steadily +lowering pressure, but also by accumulation. Finally when a climax is +reached it departs abruptly on the toe of a thunderstorm. + +A cold wave reverses the process. It arrives abruptly on the heels of a +departing cyclone and, after losing power, steals away without any +commotion whatever. Its rate of progress is in close relation to the +cyclone ahead of it. + +Our mountains play a great part in our weather. They are a right arm of +Providence to our agricultural communities. Due to their north and south +trend a cold wave of any severity reaches the Pacific Coast only once a +generation. Just once has snow been observed to fall at San Diego and it +is so rare south of San Francisco that many people never have seen a +flake. East of the mountains the belt of desert makes natural crops +impossible for a thousand miles, but if they crossed the continent all the +territory north of them would have such a cold climate that none of the +present enormous crops of Canada and our northern states could possibly be +grown. It is also due to the wide insweep of winds from the Gulf that +the plains states are so well watered. + + +[Illustration: CUMULUS + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_ + +The tops of cumulus are irregular, looking like wool-packs; the bases are +flat. The true cumulus shows a sharp outline all the way round. Its shape +is in constant change due to the strong winds it is encountering. It is +caused by the swift uprush of warm air on a sunny day. This cloud is a +sign of fair weather, because the base is not large, compact, or dark +enough to threaten rain and its comrades are also disjointed. If the +cumulus grow darker toward the horizon and increase toward evening a +squall is likely.] + + +In lesser fashion the Appalachians protect the Atlantic seaboard. They +withstand the impact of the cold waves to a great extent, although they +are not high enough to divert the flow of cold air entirely toward the +south and it is not desirable that they should. As things are the cold +strikes Alabama before it hits New Jersey, and is often more severe there. + +Comparative cold is often registered by the green color of the sky. A +fiery red continues the prevailing heat. + +The day that is ushered in by a fog, in summer, will likely be warm, +providing the fog lifts by ten o'clock. + +The temperature of a night with even a thin covering of clouds will be a +good deal higher than if the sky is clear. In the British Isles the whole +difference between freezing and no freezing lies with the fairness of the +heavens. Everywhere frost will not form while the sky is covered, although +the temperature may be below the freezing point. In summer radiation on a +still clear night may be so rapid that frost may follow a temperature of +fifty degrees at nightfall. + +The temperature at the surface of the earth may easily deceive, as a +colder or warmer stratum of air may overlie that immediately next to the +ground. I have seen water particles fall when the temperature was as low +as 16 degrees above zero, showing that the stratum of cold air was very +thin. Our sleet storms in which immense damage is done to trees and +telegraph wires occurs from just such a situation,--a cold, shallow layer +of air close to the earth, with the warm moisture-bearing air flowing over +it. The reverse of this situation is not uncommon--the sight of a +snowstorm proceeding merrily along with the ground temperature at 35 or +even 40 degrees. + +Coming warmth may be noticed by the increase in size of snow flakes, with +finally hail and rain. Coming cold is foreshadowed by hail mixed with the +rain and lastly snow flakes which have a tendency to decrease in size. +Colors of the clouds predict temperature changes, but it takes much +practice to distinguish the cold, hard grays from the soft, warm ones. A +warm sky is always less uniform in color than a cold one. The colors of +winter sunsets are, as a rule, much brighter than those of summer skies. + +The stars seem brighter on a night that is to be cold. If they twinkle it +is because of rushing air currents, and if the wind is from the northwest +the result may be a subsequent lowering of temperatures. + +The whole question of whether it will be colder and how much is vital to +the camper and if the signs of change are taken along with the look of the +clouds and the direction of the wind he need never be wrong as to the +direction the mercury is going, and will soon be able to guess the +distance pretty fairly. + + +RAIN AND SNOW + +East of the Mississippi River rain falls with the utmost impartiality upon +every locality. Thirty to fifty inches are delivered at intervals of three +or four days throughout the year. And if there is a slight irregularity in +delivery one can be sure that from 125 to 150 of the 365 days will be +rainy. Occasionally there is a more or less serious hold up of supplies, +but this rarely happens in the spring of the year and never happens to all +sections at once. And if there is a desire to make amends for the drought, +we have what we call a flood and blame it on the weather instead of on our +precipitous denudation of the watersheds. + +West of the Mississippi particular people have to go to particular places +for their rain. If they like a lot of it they must go to the coast +districts of Washington or Oregon where they can have it almost every day. +It rains a good deal at Eastport, Maine,--about 45 inches a year; that is, +nearly an inch a week,--but at Neal Bay, Washington, at about the same +latitude, in one year it rained 140 inches, and it never stops short of +100 inches any year. + +On the other hand, if the Washington people are tired of it they need only +escape to Arizona where it rains about two inches a year, and they can +live in an enterprising hotel down there whose manager believes that it +pays to advertise the sun. He guarantees to provide free board on every +day that the sun doesn't shine. + +In the plateau section enough snow falls every year to store up enough +water for irrigation purposes, and the little rain that falls arrives in +just the right season to do the most good, the spring. In California what +the farmers lose in amount they make up in the regularity of its arrival. + +North of the Ohio River most of the precipitation from November to April +is snow. About 50 inches of it falls on the average over this tremendous +territory. And it is more useful than rain,--the handy blanket that makes +lumber-hauling easy, that keeps the ground from freezing to Arctic +depths, that fertilizes the soil, and that acts as a great reservoir, +holding over the meat and drink of the vegetable kingdom till the thirsty +time arrives. In upper Michigan and Maine the average depth becomes 100 +inches. Averages are very misleading when snowfall is being considered, +some winters producing very scanty amounts and others heaping it on to the +depth of 185 inches once at North Volney, New York. + +South of the Ohio the depth varies from substantial amounts in some +winters to almost nothing in others. Snow has been observed, however, in +every part of our country except the extreme southern tip of Florida. Once +and only once on the records a great three-day snowstorm visited all of +southern California, extending to the Mexican border and to the coast. + +The strip of country between the parallels of New York City and Richmond +comprises the section wherein each winter storm is one large guess as to +whether the precipitation is to be snow or rain. A compromise is usually +affected in this way. Before the clouding up began the mercury may have +stood at ten degrees below zero. As soon as the wind acquired an easterly +slant the temperature increased. As it neared the freezing point the snow +would begin, first in flakes of medium size which would enlarge until +after a particularly heavy fall of a few minutes they would at once almost +cease. Hail soon would succeed, the mercury still rising, and often the +hail would have turned to rain before the freezing point of the air of the +immediate surface of the earth had been reached, turning the snow already +on the ground to slush and making a holiday for germs. + +One can always tell when this change to warmer is about to occur because +the clouds which have been part and parcel with the obscuring snow +suddenly show, not lighter but darker. The sudden increase in size of the +flakes is another infallible symptom of increasing warmth in the +atmosphere for each large flake is a compound of many smaller ones. When +the temperature is low the flakes are very small, being grains and +spicules in the severe blizzards of the west and falling as snow-dust in +the Arctic. In the heavy storms of the guessing-belt the flakes are not +necessarily small. + +I have noticed (in the latitude of Philadelphia) that our largest storms +begin very leisurely indeed with small and regular-sized flakes. A quarter +of an inch may not fall in the first hour. As the center nears the snow +comes ever faster and larger, but not large, flakes are mixed with the +original-sized flakes. Snow dust is apparent. At the height of the storm +flakes of all sizes except the very large are falling, denoting great +activity in the strata of air within the storm influence. In the ordinary +storm an accumulation at the rate of an inch an hour denotes a storm of +considerable intensity. + +The snow will likely keep on falling as long as the flakes are irregular +in size. If they grow large and few or very small a cessation is likely, +even though the wind is still blowing from an easterly quarter. The amount +of snow likely to fall can be gauged not only by the process of +flake-change but by the rate at which the wind rises. A storm's intensity +is measured by the amount of wind. A storm can be a storm without a drop +of rain or flake of snow if only there be enough wind. And as long as the +wind in a snowstorm keeps rising the storm is likely to go on, probably +increasing in volume of precipitation. + +If the wind shows a tendency to edge around to the southeast there is +danger of the snow turning to rain; if the wind veers slowly to the +northeast the temperature will fall slowly and the rate of precipitation +will likely increase for a while. In such instances the snow does not +continue to fall after the wind has swung west of north. Often clearing +takes place with the wind still in the north or even a point east of +north. + +Contrary to superstition snow may begin to fall at any hour of the day or +night. But certain hours seem more propitious than others, owing no doubt +to the tendency of cooling air to condense. Three o'clock of an afternoon +and eight o'clock in the morning are favorite times, the one being the +hour of a winter afternoon when cooling is begun, the other the hour when +the coldest time is reached and condensation likely if at all. Of course, +one remembers storms beginning at nine, ten, eleven, and every other hour. + +Storms that begin in the morning seldom reach much activity before three +o'clock in the afternoon, while those that begin then quickly increase in +intensity as evening draws near and the sun's warmth is withdrawn from the +upper air-strata. More snow falls at night than in the daytime, also. Snow +is more delicate than rain and perhaps more responsive than rain to the +subtle changes of the atmosphere. Possibly there is no ground on the +Bureau records for these ideas, possibly storms have a tendency to start +from the Gulf on their northeastward journey and so reach Philadelphia +oftener at one time than another. I would like my notions confirmed that +snowstorms increase at nightfall, and that they prefer to start operations +at sunrise and about sunset. + +For the camper the snowstorm need have no terrors. It gives a long warning +of its approach. It comes mostly without destructive winds. Its upholstery +protects and warms the walls of one's tent. It adds beauty to the leafless +woods, interest to the trailer, and a hundred amusements among the hills. + +But the value of snowy weather is not only measured by its beauties and +commercial uses. There is another way: make it read character for you. +Watch the reactions toward the first snowfall of half a dozen kinds of +people. It will show you what they are; give you a very fair measure of +their youth. + +Our atmosphere contains a lot of moisture that never gets precipitated. +You can prove this on any warm day by noticing the way the atmosphere acts +toward a glass of ice-water. When the air of the room is much warmer than +the surface of the glass it surrenders its moisture willy nilly. Sometimes +this condensation is enough to cause a miniature rainstorm that trickles +down the outside of the tumbler. If a small cold surface can wring so much +water out of a little air it is small wonder that we get an inch or so of +rain from vast currents of air at unequal temperatures. + +Try to visualize the process. A stream of vapor has been warmed and is +ascending. A mile up and it has cooled not only by the reason of altitude +but also by the process itself. About each little dust-particle in the +surrounding area vapor forms--vapor cannot form without something to form +on, there being always enough dust from deserts and volcanoes to go round. +If the cooling proceeds the tiny globules enlarge and as they increase in +weight they settle and fall. Falling, they unite with others. + +If the air-strata are very warm and thick the drops may grow to a very +considerable size. We see these in the middle of our great winter rains +when the insweep of southern winds with all their warmth and moisture is +very extensive. Also the first few drops that come from the thick, hot +lips of the thundercloud are usually immense. + +The best way to measure the size of a raindrop is to have it fall in a box +of dry sand. It rolls up the sand and measurements can be easily and +accurately made. But the most interesting way is to let the first drops of +the thunderstorm fall upon a sheet of blotting paper. If the same sort of +blotting paper is used the measurements will be of just as much importance +for comparison. Circles as big as teacups are formed sometimes. + +Heavy drops in winter mean a heavy fall, because they denote high +temperatures which are uncommon and are bound to be followed by +considerable condensation as the cooling proceeds back to normal +temperatures. Small drops in summer mean either cooler weather, or sudden +condensation. Small drops in winter are a sign of very thin +moisture-bearing strata, or low temperatures, indicating that the rain +will be light, protracted, and liable to change to snow. + +Hail is frozen rain. Winter hail is small and harmless and rarely falls to +any depth because the exact temperatures that bring forth the hail rarely +continue for very long at a time. Hail in winter is merely the stepping +stone to either rain or snow. But in summer hail is a serious matter. It +shows that there is a violent disturbance of the atmosphere in progress. +Vertical air currents, probably abetted by electricity,--the authorities +are not sure--often carry the stones up several times. They take on layer +after layer, coalesce, and sometimes fall the size of eggs, apples, or any +other fruit, barring melons. The usual summer hail does not exceed the +size of a robin's egg. Even a projectile of that size, however, falling +for a half mile or more has a tremendous destructive power. Greenhouses +suffer, birds are killed, cattle stunned, and loss of life has been known +to follow. In August in 1851 in New Hampshire hailstones fell to the +weight of 18 ounces, diameter 4 inches, circumference 12 inches. In +Pittsburgh stones weighing a full pound have crashed down, and in Europe +where many destructive storms have occurred there are official records of +even greater phenomena. The lightning accompanying these hailstones is +usually very severe. A flake or ball of snow forms the nucleus of a +hailstone. + +If a thundercloud looks particularly black or if it can be seen in +commotion think of hail and seek shelter. It is pretty difficult to +predict exactly when hail is going to fall in summer. It is a possibility +with every large storm, but a probability with only a very few during the +summer. It accompanies tornadoes. + +In winter hail falls before a rainstorm, even when the ground temperature +precludes the possibility of snow; some lingering stratum of cold air has +ensnared the drops on their way down. + +Snow is not frozen rain. It has an origin of its own. It is born in a +temperature consistently below freezing and on the condensation of the +invisible moisture becomes visible as a tiny crystal. These infinitesimal +crystals unite and form larger, hexagonal shapes, elongated or starry. +They are wafted along, sinking, all slightly differing one from another, +although forming a few types. These types have been photographed and +catalogued and very often the altitude from which the snow is coming may +be learned from their shape and design. But this branch of science is +young yet and confusing and the outdoor man has surer signs of the +vicissitudes of the storm, in the general size of the flakes, the power +and direction of the wind, the clouds and temperature. The possibilities +of flake-study as a means of forecasting are many and of value as is +anything that tends to unveil the secrets of the greater heights. + +Snowflakes are so light that after the storm processes are over and the +sun has come out the residue may still float lazily to the ground. + +The wild disorder of the snow flurry will only last a few minutes and +never leave much snow on the ground. + +Snowstorms that come on the wings of the west wind may be severe, but they +will be short. They are unusual in the east, but sometimes the heaviest +snows of the western states come on the sudden cooling that follows the +shift to west. + +Snowstorms arriving on a high wind last only a few hours. + +Snowstorms that are long in gathering and increase to considerable +intensity continue a long while. + +Those that follow a sudden clouding up are of no importance. + +The snowstorms that leave on a high wind from the west or northwest are +followed by a cold wave. Those that continue after the storm wind has died +away are succeeded by calm, clear, and usually warmer weather. + +In northern districts a snowstorm may be looked for after a period of cold +weather. In middle districts if the cold has been severe the reaction to +warmer may bring rain instead. In such cases generalities are of no use, +and the possibilities must be determined by the man on the spot. The best +conditions for snow through the middle districts are occasioned by an area +of low-pressure with its attendant precipitation crossing the southern +half of the country while the northern half is under the influence of an +area of high-pressure with its attendant frigidity. The cold air flows +into the southern storm with the result that the middle districts get the +northern quadrants of the storm which are the usual snow-bearing ones +instead of the southern rain-bearing quadrants that they would have got if +the center of the storm had pursued its usual course up the Ohio and down +the St. Lawrence. + +If the storm has two centers, one over Texas and the other over Montana, +as is so frequently the case in winter, the subsequent high pressure will +come too late to affect the temperature of the zone of precipitation and +the latter will likely be rain in the middle districts. Sometimes the +cyclones cross the country on the Canadian border and enough warm air is +sucked over the line to give the inhabitants of Montreal a thaw and rain. +This happens to them only once or twice a winter. And even more rarely a +cyclone over the Gulf with an anticyclone above it will give the Gulf +States a taste of winter, but rarely more than a few flakes. + +It really all depends on the influx of air, its rate and direction. It +rains in Alaska and snows in Georgia on the same day merely because at one +place the air is coming off the Pacific, and at the other it is flowing +from the center of a refrigerated continent. + +And the progress of these storms is one of Nature's greatest poems if you +take a minute to think of them sweeping on in majesty, the one thing that +man cannot control. Even the snow which is the citizens' curse as well as +the farmers' blessing becomes epic when it beleaguers an empire for half a +year. + + +DEW AND FROST + +The very process that made the tumbler of ice-water sweat on the hot day +causes dew. And the formation of frost is analogous to that of snow. Frost +is not frozen dew, but the formation of moisture crystals at the +temperature of 32 deg. or below. Frost or dew form only on still, +cloudless nights. Even if no clouds are visible, neither will form if a +stratum of humid air has prevented radiation. Hence either dew or frost +is a fairly good sign of clear weather. + +Three white frosts on successive mornings are followed by a rain. This +saying holds water not because there is any virtue in frost to cause rain, +but because a storm is normally due once a week. The frosts did not form +when the anticyclonic winds were blowing and usually not more than three +mornings elapse between the time that the anticyclone has lost its +influence and the time for the next cyclone to appear. Frost indicates a +considerable amount of moisture in the atmosphere, also, which tends to +increase as the cyclone approaches. + +The heaviest dews come in late summer and the heaviest frosts in +mid-autumn because the change in temperature is greatest then and there is +a greater chance that there will be a calm at sunrise. The greatest frost +damage occurs in the spring because the tenderer crops are growing then. +Summer frosts used to occur in the northern parts of Minnesota and along +the southern boundaries of the inland Canadian provinces before the +forests were cleared off. The march of civilization has actually pushed +back the frost line some distance. + +Frost may occur when the amount of humidity in the air is low and the +barometer rising at any temperature under 50 degrees at nightfall, the +clear skies permitting radiation enough under those circumstances to +produce the necessary cooling. An evening temperature of 40 degrees with +the clear skies and faint west breeze will almost surely produce a frost, +provided the wind drops. In such circumstances the only hope for the +farmer is that there is enough humidity in the air to cause a fog before +the frost-point is reached. A temperature touching 34 degrees would not +bring frost, however, if the sky was at all overcast. Frost is difficult +to predict because a night shift in the wind, cloudiness that forms after +midnight, or even a wind arising before the coolest period at dawn will +prevent its formation. On the other hand, clouds may disperse, the wind +may fall or radiation may be so rapid before sunrise as to cause a killing +frost unawares. The farmer who lives in areas disputed by winter and +spring may never be quite sure, but precautions should be taken on the +still, clear, dry nights with the thermometer at fifty or below. + +Fruit-growers resort to fires or to coverings to protect their crops. The +fires are particularly worth while, not so much for their heat which at +best cannot be expected to warm up the great outdoors much, but for the +smoke which prevents radiation. A line of smudges such as campers use to +ward off the mosquito would spread a pall of smoke over an orchard +efficaciously. A snowstorm, the soft fluffy sort that falls in April or +May, can do much less damage to vegetation than a severe frost. + +Temperatures are much lower on the ground than even six feet above the +grass. Naturally these temperatures are those that really influence most +vegetation and in England temperatures on the grass are given in the +weather report with the ordinary observations, being as much as six or +eight degrees lower on clear nights. + +In some of the hot, dry countries, such as Arabia and Egypt, most of the +moisture that they receive falls in the form of dew. Falls, of course, is +a loose expression as the dew forms and does not fall, being different +from the minute particles of fog. The fog particles in suspension in the +air are estimated to be as small as 1-180th of an inch. When they grow to +1-80th of an inch in diameter they commence to fall. Fogs are chiefly +caused by the soil being warmer than the air above it; the vapor on rising +condenses and becomes visible. In the spring and fall currents of air blow +over rivers at different temperatures and the result is a fog. One does +not have a fog in the desert. + +There are places in the ocean with cold and warm currents with the air +above them correspondingly different where fog is of almost constant +occurrence. The Gulf Stream off the Grand Banks of Newfoundland has a +temperature of 78 degrees, while the water on the Banks is 45 degrees so +that fogless days are rare along the line of meeting. + +Frost is known in every part of our country, many localities in the +plateau section being exposed to it every month of the year. The thin air +and cloudless skies of the altitudes make radiation very easy and the +daily variation of temperature is much wider than along the humid coasts. +Those who have never looked into frost conditions throughout our country +will be surprised to read the warnings of the Weather Bureau. + +From the station at Pensacola, Florida (frost-proof Florida!), comes this +statement: "Vegetables are subject to damage by frost during all seasons +of the year." + +Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, "Frost is likely to damage fruit or other crops +in May and September." + +Phoenix, Arizona, "Frost is likely to do damage in December, February, and +March." + +Baker City, Oregon, "Fruit and other crops are most liable to damage by +frost in April, May, June, September, and October." + +Kalispell, Montana, "Frost damage for fruit, May 15th to July 10th; for +grain, June 25th to August 1st." + +Montgomery, Alabama, "During March, April, and May fruit and early +vegetables are subject to damage by frost." + + +THE THUNDERSTORM EXPOSED + +Probably nothing in the world causes more terror than a flash of +lightning. In an able-bodied thunderstorm playing about a city there are +several dozen flashes, and every one of them brings trepidation, fright, +or positive terror to thousands of human beings,--oftenest women, +sometimes men, and occasionally children. Yet probably there is no alarm +in the world so ill-founded. + +Thunderstorms play pretty generally over our three million square miles +with their hundred million population. Yet lightning picks out of this +crowd only three hundred people a year who are foolish enough to be +killed. That is, only three persons in each million to be sacrificed to +the most astounding and beautiful display in the world, a mere handful +compared to the mounds of motor car victims or to the 33,068 deaths a year +attributable to railroads and the perils of track-walking. + +The trouble about the thunderstorm is that it does not lull one into the +sense of insecure repose. It is too obviously after one. If the thunder +were toned down a bit and the lightning a trifle duller the alliance might +claim its thousands, like the inconspicuous housefly, and never meet an +objection. But until the thunderstorm foregoes its bravado it will +continue to bully the ladies into hysterics. + +Of course, there is always the sporting chance that you are one of the +three in your particular million to perish. + +But you can lessen the chance. You must not seek refuge under a tree. You +should not take doubtful shelter in a barn. And you had best not sit in a +draft by an open window if there is a tree just outside it. By these three +avenues most of the thoughtless three hundred (a year) invite their end. + +Trees that are tall and otherwise exposed are struck oftenest. The +electricity in the cloud and the electricity in the earth are always +endeavoring to combine. When this tendency becomes so strong that the +resistance of the intervening air is counteracted the electric discharge +between thundercloud and earth takes place. This happens most frequently +from some pointed thing as a steeple, a tree if they are good conductors. +Men and animals are sometimes charged with the electricity opposite to +that of the cloud. When the lightning is discharged, even at a distance, +the bodies revert rapidly from the electric to the natural state. This +return shock or concussion occasionally proves fatal. + +That is the reason that trees are such poor protectors from the storm's +fury. Better a wet skin in the middle of a field than precarious dryness +under an oak or cherry or tall pine or almost any other tree. If it should +hail hard enough to stove in your head take to a beech or a small spruce. + +Barns are struck so often because the body of warm, dry air in them favors +the passage of electricity. Those who hide in barns are sometimes +cremated. After a severe thunderstorm in the Poconos I have seen as many +as three barns on fire at once. + +Open windows, porches, and exposure generally are safe, but not safest. +The cellar, that old stamping ground, is where instinct takes a few. Any +closed room on the side of a house away from trees is good enough. But the +risk of annihilation is so very small that one is repaid for taking it by +the spectacle. A great thunderstorm surpasses anything in nature in the +matter of architecture, coloring, directness, and surprise,--which, with +selection, comprise the essentials of art. Imagine the crowds that would +pay to wonder at the sight if a thunderstorm could be staged, say, at the +Hippodrome! + +Some hot morning, if you have time to watch, you may see a thunderstorm +born in the mountains. The warm, moist air flows up the mountainside and +the essential start is made. Cooling, this air first shows as a fluffy +cloud that soon grows harder in appearance and becomes tufted at the top. +Its little belly swells and grows blacker. It hovers over the valley. +Others add to it. Suddenly a sort of adolescent thunder is heard. The +tension has become too great. A definite consolidation is visible, a +fringe lowers, and a few drops of rain may reach you. + +The incipient storm moves off, and having started a whirl within itself, +increases, like a rumor, as it goes. Before it has moved beyond your +horizon it may have become a large patch of dark blue with billowy white +crests on the top, and underneath hangs a curtain of rain. Chances are +that it will not go far before encountering conditions that dispel it, but +it may cover half a dozen counties before nightfall. As a rule these +little heat thunderstorms do not amount to a great deal. They are +originated by local conditions and leave things pretty much as they found +them. + +But when a cyclone is passing in summer a series of thunderstorms or heavy +showers with some thunder frequently take place instead of the all day +winter rain. These thunderstorms mount up against the wind. Their clouds +are black. The word black is an indulgence of the human weatherman +meaning, of course, any dark color,--a black sky would terrify the most +hardened of meteorologists. + +The cyclone winds come from the south or southeast just as they do in +winter, but this quarter may not bring the heaviest rainfall in summer. +There may be showers or even clear skies, but the day will be humid and +hot. A haze of cirro-stratus cloud will gradually overspread the sky from +the west, darkening into a blue from the original whitish or gray. +Lightning does not appear from the cirrus, but after the sky has grown +pretty dark a ridge or tumbled cloud will be seen low on the western +horizon. Meanwhile the wind will have died down. + +The lightning, at first only a faint glimmer, will have become more +frequent and noticeable. If it is striking at a distance of fifteen miles +the thunder will not be heard. As soon as the storm center, where the +heaviest rain and the electrical display are taking place, gets within the +fifteen-mile radius thunder will be heard to growl, and the tumbled +cumulus clouds which may have lain along the horizon for hours will begin +to approach. The storm will be upon you in ten minutes likely after the +arc of foreboding blue and white cottony cloud has begun its charge across +the sky. Light quickly fades from the heavens. The wind drops entirely. +Streaks of lightning burn downward. + +Behind the arc stretches a curtain of uniform blue or gray. If the gray is +lighter in places the rainfall will not be heavy. If the curtain is a +uniform blue a heavy rain is sure. If the bow of clouds can be seen to +tumble or is continuous and approaches fast the wind is certain to be +severe,--may be from 30 to 60 miles an hour for the first few minutes. +Sometimes a cloud of dust advancing before it demonstrates its force. + +This moment immediately before the storm breaks is the dramatic moment of +the entire cyclone. As in a tragedy, the interest has built up to this +supreme occasion, this knife thrust, from which interest recedes until +clear skies show that the play is over. From 12 to 36 hours is the usual +time required in winter. In summer the cyclone takes even longer to pass a +given point, but the period of rainfall, in which the winter storm's +amount is often surpassed, may not last fifteen minutes. First the blow, +then a crash of thunder, and the rain in big drops, which lessen rapidly +in size as the whole world seems involved in the vast forces of the storm +center. Most of the precipitation occurs in the first fifteen minutes, +sometimes in the first five. A hearty storm will deliver an inch in short +order. Although the rain continues often for an hour and sometimes in the +storms that are attached to a well-defined cyclonic system there will be +two or three robust thunderstorms in succession, yet the first downpour is +usually the torrential one and the others die away until the conditions +that caused the outbreak have passed off. With the severer storms hail +falls. + +The general condition of the air after a thunderstorm is cooler, dryer, +and more invigorating than before. Ozone has been liberated, dust has been +washed from the air and vegetation. The surest sign of a continuation of +unsettled weather is the failure of the atmosphere to cool off. If the air +remains sultry and heavy and depressing another shower is due. In such +circumstances the wind will not have begun to blow with any great promise +from the west. + +A close, sultry morning is the best indication of a thunder-gust. The +large piles of cumulus clouds are called thunderheads for the very reason +that they almost always precede a thunderstorm. The heaviest electrical +disturbances have cirrus clouds a few hours in advance of them very much +as their winter relatives. A thunderstorm that does not cause the +barometer to fall considerably will not amount to a great deal. + +At night the different kinds of lightning furnish a running commentary to +the storm. On calm evenings the sky will be cloudless, with perhaps the +exception of a low rim on the northern horizon. Yet flashes of lightning, +of course without thunder, may be seen illuminating that entire quadrant +of the sky. This is called heat lightning and is popularly supposed to be +the result of the heat only. As a matter of fact it is caused by a normal +thunderstorm that is operating below the horizon. Reflections from this +storm are shown on the rim of clouds, or if no clouds are visible, on the +bowl of the sky. If you see lightning be sure that there is a storm +somewhere. + +If this disembodied sort of lightning continues to flash from the western +sky it is quite possible that the storm will reach you. If it shows on the +northwest or north of you the chances are that the storm will be carried +around. If the wind is from the southwest and the lightning appears there +only the progress of the clouds will show whether the storm is pursuing +the normal track from the west and around you or whether it is edging up +toward you. One cannot be very well surprised by a thunderstorm of any +energy in camp as the lightning shows as much as two hours before the +storm breaks and the thunder gives fifteen minutes' notice on most +occasions. + +The sort of lightning that spends itself illuminating the clouds in +serpents and willowy branches confines itself to the altitudes and is very +beautiful and harmless. It is accompanied by thunder that sounds hollow, +that rumbles over the sky, and usually does not end with the crash and +thud of the more vigorous variety. Such lightning and such thunder are +more often connected with the sort of storm that comes up very swiftly on +a western wind. It gives shorter warning than any other sort of +thunderstorm and is not connected with the cyclonic area. I have known +such a storm to manifest itself low in the west, approach, and break +within twenty minutes. Much wind results and not much rain, although the +temperature falls. Lightning with storms of this impromptu kind rarely +does any damage. + +But if the storm rises slowly against the wind, requiring an hour or two +or three to approach and break, the lightning will grow almost +continuously, some of the flashes being broad streamers cleaving the +western sky. It is this sort of lightning that does the damage. The +thunder, instead of rolling like an empty barrel, hits into a series of +concussions. If the lightning strikes an object nearby the crash is +rather appalling. There are several freak sorts of lightning such as the +ball form, which are rare. + +The approach of the center of disturbance may be gauged by the length of +time that elapses between flash and crash. In reality the thunder occurs +immediately after the discharge of electricity, but sound travels so +slowly, compared to light, that a minute may intervene between stroke and +clap. You may count the seconds, noticing the regular decrease, signifying +the nearing of the crisis. Soon a flash in front and a simultaneous peal +will show you that you are in the thick of things. The next bolt or two +may hit very close and you can appreciate what it means to be on the +firing line. Then the next river of fire with its detonation streams +behind you and you are saved. + +In a severe thunderstorm there are several centers, several nuclei that +shed destruction like great batteries and their progress over and beyond +you has its thrills. You may find the exact number of feet away that the +bolt hit by multiplying the number of seconds elapsing between the +lightning and thunder by 1120. But an easier way is to allow a mile for +every five seconds on the watch. One or two seconds, and you are pretty +near the center of the fray. + +Lightning compresses the air, leaving a partial vacuum. The other air +rushing in to fill this partial vacuum forms the wave motion that produces +the noise. That is the whole why of thunder. The reason thunder rolls is +that the lightning is a series of discharges each of which gives rise to a +particular detonation. If lightning were but one discharge, the thunder +would be but one stupefying crash. Reflections from the clouds and from +layers of air of different densities and from the ground are agencies that +prolong the sound. + +Our atmosphere is never lacking in electricity. This electricity is always +positive in clear weather and sometimes negative in cloudy. Science +concludes, then, that negative electricity invariably indicates rain, +hail, or snow within a radius of forty miles. + +Moist air is a good conductor. Our powerful motors can now produce a spark +of electricity several feet long. But some of the flashes that shoot +across the sky in a big storm extend over five miles. The duration of the +flash varies from 1-300th of a second to a second. The reason that +lightning does not always pass imperially along a straight line is that +some air, either moister or warmer than the air around it, offers less +resistance. The lightning takes this line of least resistance along the +pathway of warmer or less dense air. + +Altitudes of thunderclouds vary. They may hover above the earth at 800 +feet. They may be a mile high. They have been observed on peaks of +mountains three miles high. Many other electrical phenomena are observed +in the mountains. The study of these will undoubtedly benefit meteorology +and perhaps go far to explain the unsolved problems of the Service. + +One kind of thunderstorm that is rather rare is that which arrives in +winter with the passage of an energetic cyclone. Often when the wind, +having been in the southeast for most of the storm, is passing around and +reaches the south or southwest the rainfall culminates in a deluge and +thunder is heard. One or two such storms are a winter's complement. They +usually terminate the rainfall for that particular cyclone. I have never +heard of damage caused by these winter electrical storms, and they occur +only in exceptionally well-developed areas of low pressure. + +Lightning has many times been observed during heavy snow storms. I have +never heard any thunder with it. The discharge must have been very faint. + + +[Illustration: STRATUS + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_ + +Stratus is merely lifted fog in a horizontal form, the lowest of all, and +the simplest as regards structure. It means neither rain nor snow and the +apparent clearness of the blue above it would indicate clear weather to +come. But through the break in the stratus near the horizon shows a cloud +of firmer texture, which is less reassuring. Stratus over the land in +winter takes the appearance of long bolsters of gray through which a pale +blue sky shines. Such clouds may blanket the sky for days without causing +a drop of rain. If they show a tendency to glaze over expect snow or rain, +but not in large quantities.] + + +The fascination that a thunderstorm has for many people is explained +partially by the fact that one sees the whole process from beginning to +end. The officials of the Weather Bureau have this privilege as regards +cyclones. It is their business and pleasure to watch the setting up of +these vast storms, to follow them on their journey. It is small wonder +then that they find the spectacle fascinating. + + +THE TORNADO + +The birds, the flowers, and the tornadoes are all busiest in spring. And +the tornadoes probably make the largest impression. + +A tornado is merely a whirl of air, caused, as are all the other whirls, +by a striking difference in temperature in adjacent areas. A tornado is a +local and restricted example of the same thing that a cyclone is. But a +tornado rarely crosses more than a single state; a cyclone strides +continents. A tornado lasts, in one place, about a minute; a cyclone +affects the weather for three days. A tornado never survives the night; a +cyclone plods on for a week. And yet if you are betting on destruction put +your money on the tornado. What it lacks in the realms of space and time +it makes up in intensity. Its sting is fatal. + +Tornadoes occur chiefly in the spring because the temperature changes are +greatest then and it is from these that the tornado sucks its nourishment. +Over the plains, for example, a limited area is abnormally heated by a +local cause. Abnormal cold comes in contact with the abnormal heat. The +great difference in pressure results in a spiral as it did in the cyclone, +only in a very small spiral, and once begun its energy is +self-aggravating. The whole thing moves off toward the northeast attended +by the black cloud of its condensation. From the black cloud a funnel like +an elephant's trunk sways back and forth, now touching the ground and now +escaping it. The black cloud has been in the southwest for some time +probably before it has commenced to move. The day has been very +oppressive. The sun rose rather coppery, in all likelihood. As the black +cloud with the swaying funnel nears a roaring is heard. Darkness falls. +The roar increases.... Instantly it is over. + +Now that you've been through a tornado you know how it feels,--almost. +After the funnel passes hail falls, lightning flashes through the +lessening murk. Heavy rain succeeds, and if you're alive you go out and +rescue the perishing. + +The wind velocity in the path of a tornado is enormous,--anything up to +500 miles an hour,--but no instruments have been devised to withstand the +strain. Varying pressures are responsible for the destruction. As the +funnel passes over a house where the normal air pressure is about 2,000 +pounds to the square foot it removes 1,500 pounds for an instant. +Naturally the outside walls cannot withstand this enormous inside out +pressure and the house explodes like a projectile. Only under such +conditions could the vagaries of matter,--straws piercing logs and +chickens bereft of every feather--be perhaps not explained but pardoned. + +Stories of any degree of incredibility crop up after each tornado, often +with accompanying photographs as proof. People are plastered with mud, +pianos are deposited in neighboring lots, babies are hung up unhurt by +their clothes in tree-tops, and often one person is killed and another +nearby escapes unhurt, Bible-fashion. + +Tornadoes may form almost anywhere, but they are never found on the +immediate Pacific coast. They are most common in the Mississippi Valley, +are rather common in the Gulf States, and have occurred throughout most of +the East at one time or another. + +Since there is no way of stopping them the next best thing is to know the +conditions that make for their formation. If the Weather Bureau predicts +a cold wave for sections of the country where the weather is already +abnormally warm the line of meeting will probably produce a tornado +somewhere. The officials, however, advise you not to worry until you see +the intensely black cloud in the southwest trailing its funnel. See where +this funnel is tending and run the other way. All tornadoes progress from +the southwest to the northeast. Bad as they are, this makes them far less +terrifying than if they whipped back and forth over a town or chased you +around the pasture. If you happen to be in the house, take to the cellar, +the southwest corner of it. If you can't escape lie face down to the +ground. + +The only tornado that I have ever witnessed was an undeveloped one in +England, and a bit lethargic compared to those of the Prairie States. But +even this blew an entire train off the track. It had all the other +appurtenances of a tornado, the hail, the twisted trees, the narrow +southwest to northeast path. The fact that the houses had only corners of +their roofs blown off showed that as a tornado it was distinctly +second-grade and without power to explode. + +England, shortly after, was raided by three water-spouts. These phenomena +are caused by precisely the same conditions as are the tornadoes. They +form over the sea, and the funnel is composed of water. They take +considerable bodies of water up into the skies and torrential rains result +over adjacent districts. If I remember correctly, two of the English +water-spouts broke against the cliffs and the other, moving inland in +modified form, gave Gloucester a nine-inch rain. Ships have been known to +fire cannon at these spouts. If one hit a boat directly damage might be +caused, but they have little of the destructive force of the tornado. + +As our country builds up the destruction from this most powerful of all +phenomena is likely to increase. Bureau warnings over phones may result in +the saving of some lives; cellars will undoubtedly be built in the +principal zones. But the problem is an interesting one, for unlike the +waterspout, cannon cannot be employed to shatter an emptiness that stalks +the more malignantly the emptier it is. + + +THE HURRICANE + +The tropical hurricane is undoubtedly nature's mightiest exhibit. The +hurricane is the cyclone par excellence. It does not differ from our +ordinary weekly cyclone in the essentials of wind rotation or pressures +or rainfall; but it does differ in place of birth, in its course, and +chiefly in its intensity. + +The genuine hurricane is a West Indian production. It is generally cradled +in those islands south and east of Jamaica and Cuba. It is nursed by the +trade-winds. The first notice of its birth is an alteration in these +winds, which are among the most regular observances on our planet. An +extensive formation of cirrus clouds spreads over the sky and the +barometer, which has been stationary for some days, edges off and begins a +long and gradual fall. Great rollers are noticed for a day or two before +the winds rise. A hurricane moves slowly. + +This tropical organization is superior in depth to our shallow, disc-like, +continental cyclone which is one and rarely over two miles thick. The +hurricane rears its head three, four, and even five miles high. Instead, +too, of dissipating its force over thousands of miles at once it is only a +few hundred miles in diameter. Its center moves methodically along at the +not very impressive speed of fifteen miles an hour, while our cyclones +hurry along at thirty. But the hurricane is thorough. The wind about its +center reaches a velocity of 120 miles an hour. This velocity has never +yet been attained on the surface of the earth by our trans-continental +cyclone. + +Our cyclone always has an eastward trend; the hurricane has a parabolic +course. It begins by moving west on the trades, drifting and dealing +destruction to the banana and sugar plantations of Jamaica. It enters the +Gulf of Mexico, and since it is then pretty much out of the influence of +the trades it curves to the right and begins to act like any other storm +by heading directly for the St. Lawrence. If it passes out through the +Florida straits it never reaches the St. Lawrence but speeds up the coast +and out to sea, usually at Hatteras to follow the shipping routes across +the North Atlantic. + +But if it has become so involved in the Gulf of Mexico that it cannot +escape to sea again, it comes up through the Gulf States and on toward New +England. Fortunately as it goes inland its intensity diminishes because it +has not so much energy-giving moisture to draw from. Also its sphere of +action widens, its embrace is less mighty, its characteristics more those +of an ordinary continental cyclone. It manages, however, to deliver gales +of 80 miles an hour along the coastal plain, increasing to 100 at the +exposed places such as Hatteras and Block Island. + +The intensest hours of a hurricane are those when its course is changing +from westward to eastward. Enormous rainfalls accompany these storms, +amounting to six inches in some instances. Since one inch of rain amounts +to 100 tons per acre, and 64,000 tons to a square mile one can imagine the +great amount of evaporation that has taken place to so saturate the air as +to drench vast territories to such an extent. + +While scarcely a year goes by without one of these West Indian hurricanes +distinguishing itself on our shores the one that visited Galveston in 1904 +eclipsed all. It chose to turn in the vicinity of the city. The gale +increased to over 100 miles an hour and the wind gauge then blew away. The +waters of the Bay were heaped up and three thousand lives were lost in the +flood and wreck of flying houses. This peculiar storm did not turn +northeast at once but ascended the Mississippi, turning at the Lakes and +proceeding down the St. Lawrence after having spent a week in our country. + +The listless doldrums have sent us 121 of these storms in the last +generation. June has seen 8, July 5, August 28, September 40, and October +40. + +Sea-yarners have seized upon the hurricane to energize many a flagging +chapter, and particularly have they emphasized the eye of the storm. The +eye is that vortex where contending winds neutralize each other into a +calm, where the sun shines out through the scud, where the waves, relieved +of the great pressure, leap upward in wild disorder. Then the center +passes and the wind flings itself upon the unlucky bark from the opposite +quarter. Its first onslaught is always represented as being the fiercest +of the whole storm and gradually lessening as the center drives farther +away. This is true in the same way that the first attack of the +thunderstorm is usually the fiercest, both being when the pressure begins +to rise. This savage change to the northwest is naturally the hardest of +all for the ships to bear as they must steady at once against the severest +blast instead of gradually bracing for its culmination. In no department +of meteorology has fiction adhered so closely to the facts as in the +sea-rover accounts of the hurricane. + +But in real life there is very little excuse for the vessel to be caught +anywhere near the disastrous center of the storm. Indeed, for generations +sea-captains have known how to escape the deadly eye. By watching the +barometer and noticing in which direction the wind is working round they +can tell the course to a nicety and estimate its speed. Then the wise +ones run the other way for even the _Olympics_ and _Imperators_ of the sea +are cowed by the might of the West Indian. + +The typhoons of the West Pacific are similar manifestations. + +The hurricane moves off from its birthplace so slowly that our Weather +Bureau has an opportunity to size it up, to chart its probable course, and +to warn shipping interests. The ship-owners, as a class, appreciate the +service of the Bureau and obey its warnings. Vessels with cargoes of a +total value of $30,000,000 were known to have been detained in port on the +Atlantic coast by the Bureau's warnings of a single hurricane. Now that a +much vaster commerce will steam through these dangerous waters toward the +Panama Canal the warnings will assume an even greater importance. + +The best description of a hurricane that it has been my fortune to read is +in a story entitled "Chita," one of the remarkable fictions of Lafcadio +Hearn. As truthfully as a scientist and with great beauty of style he has +pictured the long days of burning sun, the foreboding calm, the thickening +haze, the ominous increasing swell of the ocean, a breathless night with +the lightning glowing from between piling towers of cloud, the startling +suddenness of the wind's attack, its fury, the hissing rain, the shrill +crescendo of the gale. + + +CLOUDBURST + +It is the American tendency to exaggerate. We call every snowstorm a +blizzard, every breeze a gale, every shower a cloudburst. In our generous +vocabulary it never rains but it pours. Consequently if we, in the East, +ever had a real blizzard or a real cloudburst we should be at a +considerable loss to find words for an unprofane description. I do not +know how they manage out West where these things occur. + +A genuine cloudburst must be an amazing spectacle. It is caused by a +furious updraft of wind keeping a rainstorm in suspense until so much +water has accumulated that it has to let go all at once and the +accumulation descends like a wet blanket. + +This phenomenon is staged in the mountains; most often in the Rockies +where melting snow and desert-hot ravines provide the necessary extremes +of temperature. Wind blowing up a mountain-side can maintain considerable +force,--so much that a man cannot possibly walk against it. Black thunder +clouds brew on the peaks. Suddenly the collapse, and the person who tells +the story afterward finds himself struggling in a torrent that a minute +before had been a dry gulch. The moral of the story seems to be that if +you are camping in the mountains and there is a strong upstream wind +blowing and the clouds darken about the hill-tops and the thunder mumbles +then don't make your bed in the creek-bottom lands. The high water marks +of former freshets, but not of cloudbursts, show on the side of the +stream. + +Even in the less impulsive East a couple of inches of rain make a +surprising rise in a little creek. + + +THE HALO + +The halo is a luminous circle around the moon or the sun. It is caused by +the refraction of light passing through moisture, which at the usual +height is in the form of ice-crystals. The halo when complete consists of +two large circles whose diameters are constant, 45 and 92 degrees. Then +there are often other arches in contact. At each point of contact occurs a +parhelion which is a mock sun of brilliant colors and called a sun-dog. +Since the sun-dog is brighter than the other parts of the halo it +sometimes appears when the rest of the halo cannot be seen. Sun-dogs hunt +in pairs or fours. If the halo is colored the red is on the inside. When +the colors are caused by diffraction instead of refraction, the red is on +the outside of the prismatic ring and the halo is called a corona. + +Having now satisfied the demands of science all that can be forgotten +except that the halo around either sun or moon means excess moisture in +the atmosphere. The wide halos are seen in the high cirrus clouds 25, 36, +48 hours in advance of a cyclone. At first the ring is very wide and faint +with several stars in it. If the storm is advancing rapidly the halo +brightens and narrows and the stars fade. This is proof to show that the +proverb stating that the number of stars inside the ring is a forecast of +the number of days of storm is sheer nonsense. For presently the ring +closes and the stars disappear which would show according to the proverb +that the storm had changed its mind and would cut down the number of days +from several to none. + +The moon grows paler. The light that it casts upon the earth is eerie at +this stage. Within a few hours the cocoon of mist is completely woven +about the moon. The circle has closed. Snow or rain begins within a few +hours after the moon has entirely disappeared. If it does not so begin it +shows that the process of increasing humidity is a very slow one and the +storm center is probably passing far to one side of the observer. Also if +the snow begins before the light of the moon is entirely suppressed the +disturbance is a shallow one and the storm will be light. + +When the halo is actually a corona (red outside) the approach of the storm +can be gauged by the rapidity with which the circle grows smaller. For a +decrease in diameter denotes that the size of the moisture drops is +increasing and therefore the storm is approaching. As a matter of fact the +corona will have disappeared long before the time for rain. Still it is +useful to know that if the corona increases in size the conditions are +clearing. With the halo the reverse holds. For when the clouds are very +high the halo looks small, and high clouds imply swifter winds and a +greater distance from the storm center. + +The Zuni Indians who have an eye for the picturesque as well as for the +truth state the chief fact about haloes happily: "When the sun is in his +house it will rain soon." Another saying of theirs anent cumulus clouds +holds for our country as well as for theirs: "When the clouds rise in +terraces of white, soon will the country of the corn-priests be pierced +with the arrows of rain." + +There are many little observations which the man who has kept the corner +of his eye open may profit by and yet which are rather difficult to +express in type. Who could describe an egg for instance whose springtide +of youth was far behind and yet was not quite ready for the discard! In +nature it is the fleeting moment of transition, the half-tones of the +border that are so hard to catch, so difficult to portray, and yet so very +important not to miss if one is to become sure. There follow some of the +baldest and most communicable half-facts about the weather that should be +used oftener to bolster up some opinion gleaned from more positive sources +than to mould one in their own strength. + +Moisture in the atmosphere helps sight to a certain extent. For when the +air is full of moisture its temperature tends to become equalized, +obliterating irregularities which would otherwise reflect the vibrations +producing sight and sound. So if one hears better or sees better on a +certain day it augurs a moister atmosphere,--an auxiliary sign if there is +a view that you are fond of looking at many times a day. In the city, +alas, clearer vision on one day than another means merely that less coal +is being used. But in camp there is very often a perceptible difference +in one's seeing ability even on days that could all be classed as clear. + +Another thing that the haunter of the woods may notice is that his +smelling capacity is increased before a storm. The increase of humidity +which precedes a rain buoys up odors and depresses smoke. Even in dry +weather if you will stroll by a marsh you will notice how rank the +vegetation smells and how the smells float in layers in the air strata of +different humidity. One's sense of smell is a very slender thread on which +to hang a storm, however. + +Fires burn more briskly in dry air than in moist, but to tell the +difference (if you can't feel it) you must be very sure that your wood is +as dry on one day as on another. + +Before a rain many plants close their flowers or shift their leaves. The +dandelion, pimpernel, red clover, silver maple are good examples of this, +but they would not be of much use in the North Woods. The closing, too, +takes place only a few hours before rain and is merely confirmation of the +signals rendered more adequately by clouds and winds. + +Bugs and flies are particularly annoying before a storm and it is +surprising that the spider should not take advantage of this to get a +meal. But spiders are cautious and they never spin a web on the grass, at +least on the day that brings a storm. The insects do not fly so high on +these weather-breeding days and consequently the birds that feed on them +fly lower. The chimney swifts are a particularly good guide to the +different altitudes at which insects fly. + +The stars are on a par with bugs as weather guides, although there are +many proverbs that grant them much. One circumstance should not be +neglected, however, and that is that wind mixes air and when air is well +mixed atmospheric inequalities are less disturbing to vision. Hence when +one can see the stars and the moon well wind currents are oftenest the +cause. Even if it is not blowing on earth these wind currents may yet be +blowing above to reach the earth later. In this way cold waves arrive. +There is an old proverb about this condition, applying it to the moon, +"Sharp horns do threaten windy weather." + +But the stars are of second rate importance because they are so soon +obscured. If you can't see them it is cloudy, but you do not know what +kind of cloud it is. If only the brightest show, a veil of cirrus is +arriving. A dark sky with only a few dim stars is an omen of storms. If +the stars twinkle it is because the varying currents of the upper air are +in juxtaposition. If they twinkle while the northwest wind is on it is a +sign of colder weather,--not because they are twinkling but because of the +northwest wind. + +In the days when almanacs were the sole guides to the weather a man with a +sense of humor, Butler by name, got out one and dedicated it to "Torpid +Liver and Inflammatory Rheumatism, the Most Insistent Weather Prophets +Known to Suffering Mortals." Rheumatism is following the almanac to the +scrap heap, and it would be harder for a camper to guess what a torpid +liver was like than to forecast the weather, yet for the majority of +"suffering mortals" there is still much truth in the amiable observation +of Mr. Butler, + + "As old sinners have old points + O' the compass in their bones and joints." + + + + +CHAPTER V + +THE BAROMETER + + +Whatever the foregoing chapters may imply as to the whole world going +camping the fact is that the woods are still, unfortunately, for the few. +The woodsman must yield gracefully to the suburbanite,--in numbers. + +But the weather is for everybody. To be sure the sunrise that talks so +confidentially to the hunter of the coming day does not exist for the +commuter. But the coming day does, even though the things it means are +essentially different. To the hunter with his seasoned clothes and +well-earned health a rain is only of concern in so much as it affects the +business of the day; personally it is of small moment. But to the commuter +what does the weather mean? Dollars and cents, of course. His business +goes on, but to his person one unexpected shower = the cost of pressing a +suit; one thorough soaking = one doctor's bill. For you cannot expect +the man to throw off a chill who can quiet his conscience on the matter of +daily exercise by watering the geraniums and reading the newspaper. + +Weather wisdom is necessary for the hunter; for the commuter it pays. + +The hunter had to rely on local weather signs. The commuter can go him one +better by investing $10 (how finance will creep in!) in a little aneroid +barometer. The local weather signs were good for twelve hours at the +longest. The barometer is a faithful instrument that adds another twelve +hours to a man's knowledge. Half a day, or even a day before any local +sign of changing wind or growing cloud appears the barometer is on the +job. It will register in Philadelphia the news of a disturbance +approaching the Mississippi. So sensitive is it that it is the slave to +every wave of the great air ocean. + +The barometer gauges for the eye the amount of atmosphere that is piled +above one. If the amount is normal and at sea-level the instrument will +measure 30.00 inches. This air pressure is equivalent to a column of water +30 feet high. As this would make unwieldy prognosticators the scientists +use mercury instead, which requires a column less than three feet long. +And for general purposes this is supplanted by the handy little aneroid +(which means "without fluid"). This is so fixed that the pressure of the +air influences the upper surface of a vacuum chamber, balanced perfectly +between this pressure and a main spring. This action is transmitted to an +index hand moving across the dial marked into fractions of inches after +the manner of the recognized standard, the mercurial barometer. + +When the warm moist light air of a cyclone invades a locality the pressure +is partially removed, the vacuum chamber is not pressed so hard and the +dial hand or the mercury subsides. When the cold, dry, heavy air of the +anticyclone lumbers in more pressure is applied and the mercury, or the +dial hand, climbs. So a falling barometer means a storm, a rising one fair +weather. + +That is a generality that glitters. If that were all there was to it +weather officials would have a sinecure. But each cyclone varies in size, +intensity, and rate of progress. Some do not advance for days. Therefore +there has grown up a pretty large body of information as each storm has +had to be watched and the barometric movements recorded. The most +important variations follow: + +Remembering that 30.00 inches is sea-level normal, if the barometer is +steady at 30.10 or 30.20 the weather will remain fair as long as the +steadiness continues, and on the turn, if the fall proceeds slowly with +the wind from a westerly direction fair to partly cloudy weather with +slowly rising temperature will follow for two days. + +If the barometer rises rapidly from 30.10 the fall will be equally rapid +and rain or snow may be expected within a couple of days. Since the +depressions of the atmosphere tend to a certain regularity about the +center of the storm it follows that the reactions will follow the actions +in similar manner,--a long rise portending a long fall and a variable +glass meaning unsettled conditions. + +The barometer does not rise with wind from an easterly direction unless a +shift is imminent. In winter the air is so much colder over the land than +over the sea that the air brought in by an easterly wind is soon +condensed. Consequently with winds from the south or southeast, even if +the barometer is 30.20 or 30.10 and falling slowly rain usually arrives +(and rain of course is meant to include snow whenever the mercury is below +the freezing point) within 24 hours. If the fall is rapid there may be +precipitation within 12 hours, and the wind will rapidly increase and the +temperature rise. + +If the wind is from the east or northeast and the barometer 30.10 or above +and falling slowly it means rain within 24 hours in winter. In summer if +the wind is light rain may not fall for a day or so. If the fall is rapid +in winter rain with increasing winds will often set in when the barometer +begins its fall and the wind gets to a point a little east of north. + +If the barometer is 30.00 or below and falling slowly with northeast to +southeast winds the storm will continue 24 to 48 hours. If the barometer +falls rapidly the wind will be high with rain and the change to rising +barometer with clearing and colder will probably come within 20 to 30 +hours. + +If the barometer is below 30.00 but rising slowly the clear weather will +last several days. + +If the barometer is 29.80 or below and falling rapidly with winds south of +east a severe storm is at hand to be followed within 24 hours by clearing +and colder. Under the same conditions but with northeast winds there will +occur heavy snow followed by a cold wave. + +If these promises do not always bear fruit it is because they will have +been interrupted by an unseen shifting of the atmospheric weights. But +the barometer will record them. A rapid rise may be checked in ascent and +the instrument may fluctuate like a stock-ticker. Its tale is of very +unsettled weather conditions and consequently no particular brand of +weather will last for very long at a time. + +A sudden rise of the barometer may bring its gale of wind as well as a +sudden fall. But the tendency will be toward clearing and much colder. + +A fall of the barometer on a west wind is not common. It means rain. A +rise on a south wind means fair. A low barometer and a cold south wind +mean a change to west with squalls for a while. On the other hand, a high +barometer with warmer weather means a shift of the wind to southerly +quarters and an imminent fall. + +If the barometer rises fast and the temperature does, too, look for +another storm. This is often noticed in summer. + +There is a slight daily oscillation of the mercury, which, if other things +are steady, registers highest at 10 A. M. and 10 P. M. and lowest at 4 A. +M. and 4 P. M. + +If this data confuses bear in mind the simple ordinary progress of the +barometer in the usual storm: First, it will stand steady for a day or so +at any point between 30.10 and 30.50. Then the glass will begin (for most +storms) to fall gradually. As the center nears the fall hastens. After the +lowest point has been reached a slight rise will be followed by another +slight fall and then the final long rise will commence. The rain begins +and ceases at different stages for different storms, depending upon the +wind's velocity and direction. + +For every 900 feet of altitude the height of the mercury is about one inch +less. Do not complain that your barometer is inaccurate if you are living +up in the mountains and your readings are not the same as the weather +reports which are reduced to sea level. All the figures given in this +chapter are for sea level and if your house is 1900 feet above you must +move the copper hand of your aneroid 1.95 inches from the pressure hand. +If the pressure hand would read 28.05 the adjustable copper hand would +read 30.00 which is the sea level reading. + +One good thing to remember is that a barometer falls lower for high winds +than for heavy rain. A fall of two- or three-tenths of an inch in four +hours brings a gale. In the ordinary gale the wind blows hardest when the +barometer begins its rise from a very low point. + +In summer a suddenly falling barometer foretells a thunderstorm, and if +the corresponding rise does not at once take place the unsettled +conditions will continue with probably another thunderstorm. If you see +the thunderstorm first, that is, if the barometer is not affected by the +approaching black cloud you may be sure that the storm will amount to +nothing. + +The man in the fields or along the shore has many natural barometers in +animal life. But these natural barometers only corroborate; they do not +foretell, at least very long before. Some are useful at times and among +these the birds are foremost. The observant Zunis have incorporated this +in one of their pretty proverbs, "When chimney swallows circle and call +they speak of rain." As a matter of fact the swallows are circling most of +the time after insects. If they are flying high it is because the bugs are +flying high and that is because there is no danger of rain. As the rain +nears the air gets moister, the bugs and the birds fly lower. + +Whether they do this because their instinct is to avoid a wetting or +because the lighter atmosphere of a cyclone makes flying more difficult, +particularly at altitudes, I do not know. For weather purposes it is +enough to watch their comparative levels. Wild geese are excellent signs, +I am told, but it would be a dry country that waits for a sight of them +for its rain. + +Bees localize before a storm and will not swarm. Flies crowd upon the +screens of houses when humidity is high, possibly because the appetizing +odors from within are buoyed afar by the heavy air. Cuckoos seek the +higher ground in fair weather and disappear into bottom lands before a +rain. Although they are called rain-crows they are heard in all weathers. + +Smoke is as good an evidence of barometric pressure as anything except the +instrument itself. On clear, still days it will mount; on humid days +without wind it will cling to the hill. There is that difference. But it +takes skill and many comparisons to gauge its angles in the wind. It +becomes a test in observation and finally rewards one by becoming an +excellent sign not only of air texture but of the direction of its +currents. + +No reference to barometers would be complete without mentioning spiders. +They show a most delicate apprehension of changing conditions. If the day +is to be fine and without wind they will run out long threads and be +rather active. If the rain is nearing they strengthen their webs, shorten +the filaments and sit dully in the center. Fresh webs on the lawn insure +a clear day. But for the commuter, whose time is money, there is little +leisure to consider the spider. + +As a natural result of the variation in altitude affecting the barometer +the words which are printed on the face become entirely useless. In some +places it would be impossible for the needle to point higher than "Very +Stormy." Even at sea level a sudden fall to "Fair" would cause a rain, +much to the indignation of the person who thought that he had purchased a +self-registering weather prophet. Disregard the words but watch the needle +and you will never be surprised at what the weather is doing next. + + + + +CHAPTER VI + +THE SEASONS + + +Too great emphasis cannot be laid upon the futility, at present, of trying +to forecast the weather for more than a very few days in advance. Long +range efforts are not made by the Bureau because with its present limited +knowledge of the factors that control seasons and with the present limited +facilities for collecting data the process of looking into next month has +not been perfected, and the attempt to investigate next winter's weather +proves scientifically impossible. + +As usual, fakers step in where science fears to tread. With goose-bones +(not their own) and hickory nuts they prophesy with all their might. And +if their prophecies come true, as sometimes they must, there is wide +rejoicing in the newspapers and the cause of science is set back by just +so much. But science cannot be thwarted in the end and every year new +discoveries are made, new speculations proved true or forever false, and +some time, doubtless, the weather will be predicted from year to year +with the same 85% accuracy with which the 36 hour forecast is now made. +Experimenting is worth the little that it costs, too, for to know when the +summer is to be dry or wet, hot or cold will be a boon to everybody and to +the farmer most of all. + +One conclusion has already been reached by officials in the Weather Bureau +and scientists generally. It has been decided by long search through +creditable records, painstaking comparisons of averages coupled with the +most accurate investigations for half a century, that, on the basis of ten +years, our seasons do not change. That is, counting the decade as a unit, +our weather keeps to the same level of efficiency through the centuries. + +This statement comes always as a blow. It always provokes argument and +citations of grandmother's blizzards. There is a great and universal +hesitation in believing that our weather is as good to-day as it used to +be. The good old times when there was a general debauch of snow and you +could skate all winter on anything but the Atlantic Ocean certainly appear +no more. As a matter of fact there has been a change, but it has been in +our memories. In grandmother's youth the trains,--if they had trains +then,--doubtless were stalled by a big snow for then they did not have +rotary plows. In father's day they may have had an unbroken winter of +sleighing. We couldn't now; sleighs are extinct. But in our time, in fact +every year, some record is being broken and the records go back a +respectable length of time. + +For example in Philadelphia the most accurate records made by standard +instruments have been kept for 43 years. During this time the highest wind +velocity was recorded in 1878 (75 miles an hour). The greatest rainfall in +24 hours occurred in 1898 (5.89 inches). The lowest temperature was +registered in 1899 (6 degrees below zero); the highest in 1901 (103 +degrees). The greatest number of thunderstorms for any one year took place +in 1905 when we had 51. As late as 1909 the heaviest snowfall ever +recorded at this station, amounting to 21 inches, occurred. And just a few +weeks ago (April 3rd, 1915) it snowed 19 inches in half as many hours. All +these items do not indicate a climate decreasing in virility very swiftly. + +But there is more evidence yet that Philadelphia is experiencing the same +varieties of weather in about the same proportions. Diaries of observant +men running back to 1700 show that almost any kind of memory could be +founded on fact, that the same violent changes in temperature, the same +deep snows and unseasonable seasons that we endure to-day were noticed +then. To quote: + +"The whole winter of 1780 was intensely cold. The Delaware was closed from +the 1st of December to the 14th of March. The ice was from two to three +feet thick." We despaired of ever living up to this until three years ago +when the same thing happened and sleighs crossed the river a little above +the city. And despite the new ice-boats! + +"The winter of 1779 was very mild, particularly the month of February when +trees were in blossom." + +"On the 31st of December, 1764, the Delaware was frozen completely over in +one night, and the weather continued cold until the 28th of March with +snow about two and a half feet deep." + +"The winter of 1756 was very mild. The first snow was as late as the 18th +of March." + +And so it goes. 1750 was mild; 1742 "one of the coldest since the +settlement of the country"; 1741 was intensely cold, 1725 mild, 1714 very +mild after the 15th of January, 1697 long, stormy and severely cold. The +upshot of it all is that February violets and April snows were just as +well known to General Washington as they are to us. + + +[Illustration: NIMBUS + +_Courtesy of Richard F. Warren_ + +Nimbus is any cloud from which rain is falling, and the important thing to +know is how to judge from the formless thing how much longer it is to +rain. The wind is the surest guide. In this picture the nimbus cloud is +only that at the end of the cape. All the rest is torn stratus and +cumulus, which needs to condense a little further before it becomes +nimbus. This will likely happen because the cloud at the left is very +dark. The broken appearance denotes some wind. Rain does not fall from a +mottled sky nor yet a streaky one; the nimbus is uniform in appearance. In +summer a break in the nimbus will show a veil of cirro-stratus above. Just +nimbus by itself will not support much of a storm. In winter if the nimbus +is particularly seamless snow is about to fall.] + + +But though all facts point to the fact that the climate does not change in +a decade or a generation or a dozen generations, there is some comfort for +those who are not satisfied in knowing that it doesn't stay the same +forever. During the carboniferous times the poles were as warm as the +tropics and when the Ice Age came on it was very chilly everywhere. If one +might only live an eon or two he might then well complain of the changing +climate. + +Climate, however, is one thing, weather another. The climate is the sum +total of the weather. Climate is as enduring as our Constitution, the +weather is as changeable as our city governments. No matter how proud a +scientist may be of the lasting qualities of the climate, he has to admit +that our weather, taken day by day or even year by year, is versatile in +the extreme. And the question he has set himself to solve is how to +explain the variations of the seasonable weather. He wants to find out why +all winters are not alike, and why no two successive springs are the same. +Then he will be on firm ground at last and able to make scientific +forecasts for the ensuing year. + +The obvious thing was to find out as accurately as possible what had +happened and science's keenest eye was focused on records in the hope of +discovering fixed periods of warmth or wetness, cycles of cold and +drought. So far no cycles have been discovered that are beyond dispute. +Nothing has been found that cannot be contradicted successfully. This is +discouraging. + +One of the most frequent starting places for investigators is the spots on +the sun. They found that periods of three, eight, eleven, and thirty-five +years should bear some resemblance; 1901 was eagerly looked forward to. +They wanted it to correspond with the remarkably cool summer of 1867. When +it started off in July with a temperature of 103 degrees, the highest ever +recorded in Philadelphia, they concluded that the sunspots were fooling +them. A connection between sunspots and weather has not been established, +therefore, although they are now known to affect the electrical condition +of the earth's atmosphere. Longer periods of observation will permit +comparisons that may yet define concurrent cycles of sunspots and weather. + +A definite weather cycle has not yet been discovered, but one step in the +way has been cleared up. We now are pretty sure of one cause for unusual +single seasons of heat and cold. + +There exist in winter great bodies of cold, dry air heaped up over Canada +and Siberia, which are formed by the greater rapidity of radiation over +land surfaces than over water. These mounds of cold air build up during +December, January, and February and form great so-called permanent areas +of high barometer. It is on the skirts of the Canadian high that the +smaller highs form which sweep over our country, giving us our cold waves. +Also in winter permanent lows form over the North Pacific and North +Atlantic where warm currents afford continuous supplies of warm moist air. +From the great Aleutian (Pacific) low spring most of the cyclones which +swing down below the border of the Canadian high, make their turn +somewhere in the Mississippi Valley, and then head for the Icelandic low. + +It can be seen that if the Canadian high is a little stronger than usual +and spreads a little farther south, then the northern half of our country +will come more directly under its influence and we will experience an +unusually severe winter. As the storms are pushed south and as the cold +air pours into the northern quadrants the snow line is pushed south too. +Hence all abnormally snowy winters are caused by a strengthening of the +permanent Canadian high which may be central anywhere north of our Dakota +or Montana borders. + +Conversely, if this high is weaker than usual the cyclones can cross the +country on a line farther north, there will be less snow, and the cold +waves that follow will be less severe or even non-existent. + +In summer the reverse occurs. Great oceanic highs are built up over the +South Atlantic and South Pacific and a permanent low occupies the center +of our continent. The character of the season is determined by the +strength and position of these areas. The eastern states are affected +especially by the slow movements of the South Atlantic low. The puzzle is +why should these areas change their power and position, and if they must +change why don't they do it regularly? The puzzle will undoubtedly be +solved. These great centers of action will be plotted against and observed +from every vantage point by a thousand observers. A fascinating field for +scientific speculation opens. + +At present our Government exchanges daily observations with stations in +Siberia, Canada, and the West Indies. The great storm-breeder, the +Aleutian Low, is watched from Alaskan shores. In the Atlantic the Bureau +needs stationary ships to record the growth and decline of the High over +the Azores. Knowledge of the wind circulation from this would inform us +whether our storms were to be shunted farther north and pushed somewhat +inland. A storm which is pushed to the left of its normal track increases +tremendously in intensity. Whereas a cyclone that limps slackly to the +right of its normal line loses intensity at once. It misses coil. In this +respect storms seem to resemble rattlesnakes. + +The energy of the Azores High influences the number and destructiveness of +the West Indian hurricanes: the larger the area is the closer do the +hurricanes hug our shores and the more destruction do they accomplish. + +The very sureness that the general average of the seasons is to be the +same enables us to guess pretty accurately for individual purposes as to +the kind of season coming next. A guess, let me add, is not a forecast. It +is a gamble and disapproved of by the Bureau, but until they supply us +with a basis for judgment we will have to go on guessing, for human +curiosity is as near to perpetual motion as the weather is to the lacking +fourth dimension. + +One of these guesses is that if the winter has been a warm one the summer +will be cool, for the very good reason that the yearly average does depart +so slightly from the fixture. Unfortunately one hot summer does not mean +that the following summer will be cool. Certain sequences of the seasons +have been observed often enough to have been gathered into proverbs. +Everybody agrees that "A late spring never deceives." "A year of snow, +Fruit will grow." "A green winter makes a full churchyard." + +Of the many hundreds of proverbs relating to the seasons a few are sage, +some outworn, and many sheer nonsense. Nearly all refer to the obvious +fact that one kind of season is followed by another rather unlike it, not +much telling what. And there, unsatisfactorily enough, they leave one. But +much is to be hoped for from the scientific explorations now in progress. +And until they are heard from few of us will realize how many seasonable +seasons we really enjoy. + + + + +CHAPTER VII + +THE WEATHER BUREAU + + +At the cost of a cent and a half a year apiece we Americans are supplied +with detailed information in advance about the weather. And the +information is correct for more than four-fifths of the time. If stock +brokers never missed oftener, what reputations would accrue! + +Cheapness, accuracy, and a certain modesty are the three qualities that +distinguish the out-givings of the Bureau from the old-fashioned +predictions of the weather which used to appear in almanacs. Almanacs have +probably kept appearing ever since the art of printing first allowed +unscrupulous persons to juggle with words. They cost fifty cents and their +predictions were based on nothing but the strength of their author's +imagination. Of course, it was impossible for him to guess wrong more than +half the time so that when he announced in January that July would be hot +with thunderstorms he was often right. This gave him prestige, but aided +his clients little. + +The Weather Bureau was in about the same position in regard to the quack +predictions of the almanacs as was the honest doctor of the last decade +who could only prescribe good food and fresh air and moderate exercise for +the patient who much preferred the expensive allurements of the medicinal +cure-all as advertised. In humility the Bureau said that as things stood +it could not forecast with accuracy for more than 48 hours, and its +honesty brought it into disregard. + +But, although the Weather Bureau,--like the Christian Church and other +things that have had to combat superstition at every step--has grown +slowly it has grown surely and its work is being recognized more widely +and relied upon more understandingly every month. It was an American +scientist who discovered the rotary motion of cyclones and their +progressive character, but due to the conservative nature of our +Government three other nations had established weather services before we +had. In 1870 the War Department was authorized to start a system of +observations that would permit of a rough sort of forecasting. The +forecasts proved of so much value to shippers and sailors that the work +was handed over to the Department of Agriculture and enlarged (1891). +To-day every part of our country contributes to the knowledge of existing +weather conditions. + +At 8 A. M. observations are made at hundreds of stations and wired to the +Central Office at Washington. The Chief there, knowing these conditions, +is enabled to locate a storm, to gauge its rate of speed, to learn its +course, and to measure its intensity. He can dictate storm warnings and be +sure that within an hour every sailing master will have a copy. He can +detect a cold wave at its entrance into our territory and know that within +an hour every shipper, every truckster (who has signified that he wishes +to be informed) will have the facts that will save him money. + +At 8 P. M. the same stations telegraph the changed conditions, and if any +very violent disturbance is in progress an observation is made at noon. +Besides the Washington distributing station there are 1700 others from +which warnings are sent by telegraph, telephone, or mail. There are +100,000 addresses on the mailing list and 5,000,000 telephone subscribers +can get them within an hour. The newspapers reach many millions. And all +this at a cost of 1-1/2 cents a year. If we, in a fit of generosity, +should pay 2 cents, or even 2-1/2 the Government would be enabled to work +out many of the larger problems awaiting only a larger appropriation to be +attacked. + +The people's investment of $1,600,000 a year is a good investment. In one +year the Service saves a great many hundred per cent. A few known savings +are worth giving; $3,500,000 worth of protection was made possible from +one exceptionally severe cold wave; the California citrus growers +estimated that one warning saved $14,000,000 worth of fruit; $30,000,000 +of shipping (and cargoes) was known to have been detained in port just on +account of one hurricane warning, and there are many warnings of gales +every year. Uncalculated savings have been effected among the growers of +tobacco, sugar, cranberries, truck. The railway and transportation +companies save, through use of the forecasts, in shipments of bananas, +oysters, fish, and eggs. Farmers, manufacturers, raisin driers, +photographers, insurance companies, and about a hundred and fifty other +occupations increase their profits by a systematic study of the forecasts. + +The people who live along the rivers often owe their lives and frequently +much of their property to telephone warnings of approaching floods. The +flood stages in all the principal rivers and streams have been calculated +and losses are reduced by 75 per cent. by accurate predictions as to when +the crest of the flood may be expected and how high it will reach. A +hundred uses of river forecasts, even when flood stages are not expected +are given in the booklet, "The Weather Bureau" which you can have from +Washington for the asking, like many another of their publications. + +Yet, with all the good it does, the man on the street still regards the +Bureau as an uninteresting, undependable exhibit in the upper corner of +the newspaper,--if he regards it at all. It is his child, however, who is +instructing him. For his child is being taught in the public school all +about it and he takes his teaching home and becomes the teacher. The child +is father of the (old) man in lots of instances. + +The most impressive thing about the whole output of the Bureau to the +child is its Map. The Bureau issues a map every day which is posted in +post-offices and railroad stations and in schools, too, if they ask for +it. And every day this map shows in all its gripping details the way our +storms are sidling across the continent or rushing up our coasts. It +prints the word low where the stormy area of low barometer is. About the +low run continuous black lines numbered 29.7, 29.8, 29.9, etc., which show +where in the country the pressures are the same. + +As the numbers run up to 30.0, 30.1, 30.2 they begin to circle about the +word High which denotes where the pressure is highest. Little circles will +be observed on the map. Some are clear, indicating clear weather; others +are half clear, half black, indicating partly cloudy conditions; others +are all black, showing clouds; others have R. or S. inside them, telling +where it is raining. The numbers under the circles show how much it has +rained or snowed and the numbers under the other numbers are the +velocities of the winds. The arrows through the circles fly with the wind. +A little zig-zag locates each thunderstorm and the shaded portions show +over what portions of the country it has rained during the last 24 hours. +As an intelligent puzzle picture the map is unequaled and no wonder the +child likes it. + +With this map you can tell at a glance what the weather is doing to your +uncle in Tacoma and to your cousin in Missouri. With two successive maps +you can find out about how fast the storms are traveling, in what +direction, and how low the temperatures are under their influence, and so +estimate for yourself the weather for the next three days. + +Besides the invaluable daily weather map the Bureau issues many other maps +that present the phenomena of the week, the month, and the season in +graphic form. Masters of vessels are now cooperating with the government +to provide observations at sea, and both on our northwest and southeast +coasts such information is very valuable. In the west several hundreds of +stations are maintained in the mountains for the purpose of obtaining the +depth and content of the great snowfalls there. Estimates can then be +given out as to the amount of water to be available for irrigating +purposes. In addition to the 220 stations of the first class there are +4200 cooperative stations at which observations are made and mailed to 44 +centers for distribution. + +Special local data help to establish the relations between climate and +forestry, agriculture, water resources, and allied subjects. Many +bulletins are compiled by experts in their respective lines and these are +for free distribution. A study of forest cover is being made in Colorado +and the effects of denudation on the flow of streams will soon be +scientifically established. As soon as practicable the Bureau hopes to +extend its period of forecasting. Weekly forecasts have been tried in a +general way with success, but long-range forecasting depends upon so many +relationships of the air that present knowledge and facilities do not +warrant its adoption. + + + + +CHAPTER VIII + +A CHAPTER OF EXPLOSIONS + + +In the good old times when a man was born, spent his life, and died in the +same village the weather proverb was fashioned. Generations had watched +the clouds gather under certain circumstances and scatter under certain +others and they naturally drew conclusions. These conclusions crystallized +until they resembled nuggets of golden weather wisdom. Some were even used +as charms. And all contained a deal of truth so long as they were only +meant to refer to the country in which they had originated. + +But nowadays when the very idea of remaining in the same place for very +long at a time is obnoxious the weather proverb suffers. It suffers +chiefly by transportation. The weather in County Cork is so very different +from the weather that makes Chicago famous that the same weather lore does +not fit. Yet it is often applied. The old truths, treasured in picturesque +phrase and jingle, were brought over the ocean unchanged and made to do +duty,--a case of new wine in old bottles again, for a gentle old Irish +proverb splits up the back when it tries to accommodate itself to a week +of our reckless but magnificent weather. + +Fairy stories are jewels to be cherished. And it is a careless and +unimaginative race that perpetuates no legends. Even old saws are quaint +and should be preserved: "See a pin and pick it up, all the day you'll +have good luck." Let that sort of thing go on because it adds richness to +our conversation. But if a thousand men, after having picked up their +morning pins, sat around waiting for the ensuing luck the progress of +scientific business management would be halted. And precisely that way is +the knowledge of ordinary weather facts halted,--a full-grown superstition +sits in the path. Instead of relying upon their eyes the majority of +people rely upon a bit of doggerel. For example, millions of people firmly +believe that the ground-hog is a key to the weather. They say that if the +ground-hog does not see his shadow on the 2nd of February that winter is +over! + +This is the sort of thing that obscures the findings of science not to +mention common-sense. Few of these people have ever seen a ground-hog. +Few of the rest have ever studied its habits. The ant, the mouse, the fly, +the rat, and the mosquito have far more influence upon our lives than the +ground-hog has and the most ambitious animal cannot expect to influence +atmospheric pressure, which is responsible for our weather. Yet as often +as the 2nd of February comes around the hopes of many are either dashed or +raised according to the actions of this creature. As a matter of fact, +whether February 2nd is clear or cloudy can have no influence on the rest +of the winter. + +Almost all the other proverbs have a basis of reason. But this puts its +believers in the wrong either way. If they say that it is the actions of +the animal that they rely upon they depend upon a characteristic +thoroughly and surely disproved. No animal, although it may sense a change +in the weather a few hours in advance, is able to feel it for three days +ahead to say nothing of six weeks. If these people say, on the other hand, +that a cloudy February 2nd means an immediate and complete let up of +winter, or that a clear February 2nd means a certain continuance of cold +weather for six weeks, they have only to trouble themselves to look at the +files of the nearest Weather Bureau for the last forty years. They will +find no connection. The trouble is that they will not look, but keep on +repeating the bit of nonsense and believing in it, although the strength +of their convictions probably does not reduce their coal-bills. + +The same people are fond of saying that the first three days of December +show what the winter will be like. That is, if the 1st is fair so will +December be; if the 2nd is cold so will January be; and if it snows on the +3rd, so will it snow in February. If all three should be clear and warm +certainly a remarkable winter would follow! No rain, no snow, no cold! You +see how absurd this superstition is. + +"A dry moon lies on its back!" After the ground-hog the moon is supposed +to have the most influence on our seasons. The Government and many +scientists connected with no governments have made careful, exhaustive and +conclusive investigations. No relation between the moon and our weather +has been discovered except as she causes our tides and they affect +atmospheric pressure in an infinitesimal degree. We would still have just +as much and just as variable weather if there were no moon. The weather +changes with the changing moon, and it does not change as the moon +changes, and the chances are about even that the times of change will +coincide. So there is, therefore, absolutely no foundation for the dozens +of proverbs that yoke the changes of the moon with the changes of our +weather. Neither in science nor in observation has any sequence been +deduced. + +So the moon may lie on its back or on its side or stand on its head and +the weather will remain dry if no low pressure areas cross the country, +and it can lie on its back for days and the country be drowned out if they +do. There are enough pretty things to say about the moon, anyway, and will +be more all the time for, to commit a paraphrase: Science is stranger than +superstition. + +"It will rain for forty days straight if it rains on St. Swithin's Day," +which, I might as well say for the benefit of those who don't know their +saints, falls on July 15th every year. It would be interesting to know how +many people in a hundred really believe this, or really believe all the +other things that are attributed to the saints,--quite a few, probably. +Luckily for St. Swithin July and August are wet months, with often several +days of showers or thunderstorms in succession. But never once in +Philadelphia has it rained for forty days, one right after another, +although half the July 15ths have been rained on. This proverb is one of +those that had better never been transplanted from its native Ireland +where rain for 40 days would excite scarcely a curse. + +"Long and loud singing of robins denotes rain." It does not. Oftener than +not it denotes the time of day. Just watch the robins and listen to them +and see what they do before a storm, during it, after it, and then you +will see how little the songs of birds can be depended upon to supplant +the barometer. + +"If March comes in like a lion it will go out like a lamb," and the other +way round. I have seen March come in like a lion and go out like a lion, +come in like a lion and go out like a lamb, come in like a lamb and go out +like a lion, and come in like a lamb and go out like a Noah's ark. But I +never have seen March do anything dependable. It is quite impossible to +tell how March is going out on March 27th, and absolutely impossible to +tell on March 1st. + +But there is this much observation expressed in the proverb, that March is +so changeable that, if it comes in cold, windy, unsettled, there is not so +much chance for such weather still to be going on at the end of the month, +and still less in England where the proverb came from. This is a harmless +proverb unless it should lead people to actually count upon a pleasant +spring just because March had an unpleasant inception. Misfortunes rarely +come singly, even on the weather calendar. + +"When squirrels are scarce in autumn the winter will be severe." Aside +from the scientific truth that the animals cannot know in advance about +the seasons there is little evidence on either side to base a contention. +Nobody has made a squirrel census; nobody, probably, has found out whether +they increase in numbers for six years and then die off in great +quantities as do the rabbits in the north country on the seventh; nobody +has connected their apparent numbers year after year with the actual +severities of the winters. And so nobody has a right to promulgate the +report (except as a bit of nonsense like April Fool) that the ensuing +winter is going to be a record breaker because the squirrels have +disappeared. It would be far truer to say that "When squirrels are scarce +in autumn the hunters have been busy," and let it go at that. + +There are a lot of proverbs in this connection about goose bones and +hickory nuts and wild geese, which sound plausible but are never proved. +If the birds have all the sense credited to them it is strange that some +allow themselves to be caught by an early snowstorm in the fall and +decimated. Also it is not uncommon for early migrations in the spring to +arrive in the north to be slain by the thousand by a belated blizzard. It +is granted that animals and birds, having a far greater sensitiveness than +man, occasionally sense a catastrophe some hours before it is evidenced by +any visual signs, but seasonal wisdom has not been proved in any one +instance and disproved in many. None of the proverbs relating to the +animals and birds are to be depended upon. They deceive, much to the +regret of all the meteorologists who would welcome any genuine clue to +nature of the coming season. Any farmer would be only too glad to keep a +menagerie of squirrels and wild geese and toads if only he might be +assured by them of the coming seasonal conditions. + +The proverbs given indicate the range, possibly, but certainly not the +full absurdity of the old weather sayings. There are many other proverbs +that contain at least a half truth. + +"Enough blue sky to make a Dutchman's breeches indicates clearing," is one +that is true if the wind has changed to the west. If the wind still blows +from an easterly quarter blue sky for a Dutchman's whole wardrobe would +not insure clear weather. All sayings must be tested many times before +they are believed implicitly. + +"There is always a thaw in January," is about as true a generalization as +can be made about things for which generalizations are never strictly in +place. Even in Canada the severity of the winter is often broken by a +spell of warmer weather with a rain, perhaps, in the dead of winter. In +the United States a winter without some break in each of the months would +be a most unusual occurrence. So that it is quite reasonable to expect the +"January thaw" any time from Christmas until the middle of February. + +"A late spring never deceives," unless it is so very late, like the +phenomenal spring of 1907, that the jump is made, perforce, into summer. +That is a cruel deception. What is meant of course is that if the freezing +weather continues consistently, well past the average, the likelihood of +frost-damage to fruit is slight. There is nothing much worse than for the +blossoms to be forced by a period of warm weather early, for there is only +a slim chance that it will continue past the danger limit. It is +surprising how late frost may occur,--the last date for killing frost in +Pennsylvania is about May 10th on the _average_, which makes it possible +till June. + +"The first robins indicate the approach of spring." But certainly not its +arrival. + +"If the moon rises clear expect fair weather." Right; because if it is +summer even the eastern horizon would show the humidity necessary enough +to cause a thunderstorm, and in winter the cirrus clouds give several +hours' warning. But, again, the wind is the chief factor to be considered. + +Proverbs, representing variations of the truth, could be given about every +manifestation of the skies as well as about things that were never +manifest except in the imagination, for every country has contributed to +the volume of weather-lore. But, unfortunately, neither age nor amount of +repetition are as good as the truth and they should be discarded if they +are false. The way to discard is not to repeat. + +The man who desires weather-wisdom should seek it with his eyes. His +comparison will be that which he sees with that which he has seen, and he +will soon form all the weather axioms he needs for himself. The local +Bureau or the Bureau at Washington will answer all his inquiries, +cheerfully, promptly, and free of charge. Of course there are things that +the Bureau wants to know itself. It is very curious about the higher +strata of air. Small balloons have carried very light instruments to an +altitude of fifteen miles and brought considerable knowledge to earth, +but each bit makes more knowledge imperative. + +The cry of "last frontier" hurts the adventurous, the exploring, the +woods-loving as no other cry has power to hurt. With the Poles gone and +Alaska in harness we are inclined to think that it is all over. We resign +ourselves to our trammelling globe,--as the gold-fish do,--forgetting. But +there is plenty of interest left. The birds must be brought back. Forests +must be made and patrolled, and the air-ocean is still unknown. That, at +any rate, has remained unspoiled by man. + +The seas have been charted and the mountains have been disemboweled, but +the atmosphere is unconquered. More must be known. Squadrons of aeroplanes +cannot ride out the gale until their pilots know all about the gale. Until +that time there need be no cry of last frontier, for until that time the +weather will continue to be our overlord, whose dominions are flaunted +before the watcher on the porch and the runner on the trail. + + +CONDENSATIONS + +Look for continued fair weather when: + +A gentle wind blows from the west, northwest, or a little south of west. + +The sun sets in a cloudless sky. + +The sunset is composed of light tints, inclining to red or yellow. + +The sunset is followed by a glowing and slow-fading western sky. + +The sun sets like a ball of fire (warmer). + +The sun rises out of a gray sky. + +The clouds are noticeably high for the season. + +The clouds rise on the mountains. + +The clouds have frequent breaks showing blue sky between. + +The puffy cumulus clouds show a lot of white. + +The cumulus clouds decrease toward nightfall. + +The winter sky is mottled with a northwest wind. + +The summer morning fog breaks before ten o'clock. + +The dawn is low. + +The blue sky has a tendency to show green near the northern horizon +(colder). + +The sun breaks through a departing thunderstorm and makes a rainbow. + +Snow-flurries drift down a north wind (colder). + +Cirrus clouds, or others, dissolve, or cirrus have tails down. + +Spiders spin on the grass. + +There is a moderate dew or frost. + +The temperature is normal or colder than normal, other signs being right. + +The sky is sown with stars. + +The moon rises clear. + +The wind blows down mountain ravines after nightfall. + +The salt is dry, smoke ascends, birds fly high, and animals act normally. + +The barometer rises slowly, or is steady at or above 30.00. + +No change need be feared as the anticyclone nears, or for three days after +clear conditions are established so long as the wind remains brisk from +some westerly quarter. The direction of the wind, the kind of cloud, and +the temperature changes are the factors to watch if you have no barometer. + + * * * * * + +Look for a change toward storms when: + +The west wind suddenly drops. + +The west wind shifts to south or northeast. + +The cirrus clouds appear in well-organized lines. + +The cirrus clouds merge into cirro-stratus. + +The sky looks like fish scales, so-called mackerel sky. + +Light scud drifts across the sky from east to west. + +The summer cumulus clouds increase in size as the afternoon proceeds. + +Walls grow damp, flies are more of a burden than usual, swallows fly low. + +Smoke falls to the ground. + +There have been three white frosts. + +A halo appears around either the moon or sun. + +When sun-dogs appear about the sun, denoting ice-particles in the air. + +The summer morning is sultry and the wind variable. + +The temperature is much above the normal. + +Few stars are visible and those are indistinct. The clouds gather about +the mountain tops, or drop down the mountain-sides. + +The wind continues to blow up ravines after nightfall. + +The sunset is a dull gray, or the sun sets into a livid cloudbank. + +The sunrise is a fiery red, and the dawn is high. + +The sun gradually is smothered in fine-textured clouds and the wind +shifts. + +The temperature does not fall at night. + +The signs most to be heeded are the shift of wind to a point east of +north or south, the gradual filming of the sky with cirrus and +cirro-stratus, and the increase of temperature. Of course, the barometer +is the best indicator of all. + + * * * * * + +Look for a change toward clearing when: + +The wind shifts from the easterly quarter into the west. + +The temperature falls rapidly. + +The clouds rise, or break, or lighten perceptibly in color. + +Patches of blue sky appear through the rifts in the clouds, wind north. + +Raindrops grow smaller after the windshift. + +Snowflakes drive less busily, float lazily down, or thin out +conspicuously. + +Seams appear in the clouds, snow will cease and rain probably. + +The thunder and lightning occur only in the eastern quarter. + +Permanent clearing will not be effected until the change of the wind to +the points on the western half of the compass show that the cyclone has +definitely passed to the north or south or over the locality. In winter +the cloud covering may move off slowly, but there will be little +precipitation after the wind has reached north or west. The bank of +cirro-stratus gets thinner and the moon or the sun gradually shines +through. In summer clearing is much more abrupt, as is the clouding up. +The ability to sense accurately the moment when the weights are shifted +and the change to clearing commences takes some observation to acquire, +but the advantage is worth it. + + * * * * * + +Rain (or snow) will fall: + +Within five minutes after the arch of the thundercloud is seen to move +toward one. + +Within five minutes when the curtain of falling drops obscures the +landscape to the west of one. + +Within a few minutes after the bottoms of cumulus clouds turn from black +to gray, letting down visible trailing showers. + +Within a short while after the winter sky has become uniform in color. + +Within an hour after the pavement-like, but scarcely discernible, +thundercloud consolidates along the west, if the wind is from the +southwest. If the wind is from the southeast this cloud may take four +hours to rise. + +From two to eight hours after the sun or moon has vanished behind the +cirro-stratus. + +From eight to forty-eight hours after the first cirrus is seen, depending +upon the distance from the sea and the time of year. + +Every little while from southwest showers in the passing of a summer low. + +For about eight to twelve hours continuously in a winter storm, and +intermittently until the wind swings west. + +For a very short while from a thunder cloud rising on a west wind. + +For an hour or more from a thundercloud that rises on a southwest or +southeast wind. + + * * * * * + +The temperature will fall when: + +A thunderstorm breaks, continuing low if the wind blows from the west +after clearing. + +Nightfall approaches and the sky is free from clouds. + +The mercury remains at the same level during the sunny hours. + +A cyclone is departing and the anticyclone moving in. + +The wind swings north of east in a storm,--the fall will be gradual. + +The wind swings west of south in a storm,--the fall will be sudden. + +A snowstorm begins, for a short time only. + +A cloudy day clears at sunset. + +Snow flurries are seen. + +The sky shows green and the clouds look hard. + + * * * * * + +The temperature will rise when: + +A thunderstorm is brewing, or a day or two before a winter cyclone. + +After a thunderstorm if another is to follow. + +The morning is free from clouds and if it is not the first day of a cold +wave. + +The wind dips south of west or south of northeast, the former shift +bringing the more sudden rise. + +The sun sets as a ball of fire, at which one can easily look. + +A snowstorm gets under way, unless the wind is swinging toward the north. + + +A PAGE OF PROBLEMS + +One satisfying thing about meteorology is that there is a constantly +widening field for conquest. Among the questions that await solution are: + +What are the relative densities of clouds? + +What is the original atmospheric electricity, its distribution and laws? + +What are the causes and nature of precipitation? + +Will aerial ascents on all sides of an atmospheric disturbance discover +the mechanism of storms? + +What relations are there of solar radiation to our atmosphere? + +What influence do lunar tides bear to our weather? + +On what does the permanence of the summer lows over the Rockies depend? + +These questions are only samples. Many certainties can be attained by +merely complete observations over a longer period of time, others by new +systems of observations that await a more generous appropriation. Even the +upper air investigations on Mt. Weather, Va., have had to be curtailed. +The Bureau's record has proved it efficient, of enormous benefit to the +country, and deserving of the encouragement instead of the depreciation of +every citizen. + + +WHAT THE WEATHER FLAGS MEAN + +In every city the Bureau causes flags to be flown from some prominent +place so that a glance may show shippers and everybody who may be +concerned at the shortest possible notice just what the approaching +weather conditions are. + +A plain white flag means fair weather. + +A black triangle stands for temperature and is always exhibited with some +other flag. Its relative position, either above or below indicates higher +or lower temperature. Therefore white flag with the black below means fair +and colder. The white flag with the black above means fair and warmer. + +A white flag with a black square in the center means a cold wave. + +A blue flag means either rain or snow. + +The blue with the black above would mean rain or snow and warmer. + +The blue with the black below would mean rain or snow and colder. + +A blue and white flag means a local shower. The same meanings are attached +to the black triangle in connection with the blue and white. + +A red triangle indicates a dangerous local storm, is called the +information flag meaning that shippers should apply to the Bureau for news +of the direction in which the storm is travelling. + +A red square with a black center means severe winds. + +1. Southwesterly with a white triangle below. + +2. Northwesterly with a white triangle above. + +3. Northeasterly with a red triangle above. + +4. Southeasterly with a red triangle below. + + +OUR FOUR WORLD'S RECORDS,--AND OTHERS + +Maximum Temperature + + United States, 134 at Greenland Ranch, Cal., July, 1913. + + World, 134 at Greenland Ranch, Cal. + +Minimum Temperature + + United States, -65 at Miles City, Mont., January, 1888. + + World, -98 at Verkhojansk, Siberia. + +Absolute Zero of Space + + -459 degrees Fahrenheit. + +Maximum Annual Precipitation + + United States, 167.29 inches at Glenora, Oreg., in 1896. + + World, 905.1 inches, Cherrapunji, India, 1861. + +Maximum Monthly Precipitation + + United States, 71.5 inches at Helen Mine, Cal., January, 1909. + + World, 366 inches, Cherrapunji, India, July, 1861. + +Maximum 24 Hour Precipitation + + United States, 21 inches at Alexandria, La. + +Minimum Annual Precipitation + + United States, none at Bagdad, Cal., in 1913. (Only 3.93 inches fell + at Bagdad during period 1909 to 1913, inclusive.) + +Maximum Annual Snowfall + + United States, 786 inches at Tamarack, Cal., 1911. + +Maximum Monthly Snowfall + + United States, 390 inches at Tamarack, Cal., January, 1911. + +Maximum Wind Velocity + + United States, 186 miles per hour at Mt. Washington, on Jan. 11, 1878. + (Much higher velocities have undoubtedly occurred in tornadoes, etc., + but have not been susceptible of instrumental measurement.) + + +THE END + + + + +_OUTING PUBLISHING COMPANY--NEW YORK_ + +OUTING HANDBOOKS + +_The textbooks for outdoor work and play_ + +Each book deals with a separate subject and deals with it thoroughly. If +you want to know anything about Airedales an OUTING HANDBOOK gives you all +you want. If it's Apple Growing, another OUTING HANDBOOK meets your need. +The Fisherman, the Camper, the Poultry-raiser, the Automobilist, the +Horseman, all varieties of out-door enthusiasts, will find separate +volumes for their separate interests. There is no waste space. + +The series is based on the plan of one subject to a book and each book +complete. The authors are experts. Each book has been specially prepared +for this series and all are published in uniform style, flexible cloth +binding. + +Two hundred titles are projected. The series covers all phases of +outdoor life, from bee-keeping to big-game shooting. Among the books now +ready or in preparation are those described on the following pages. + +PRICE SEVENTY CENTS PER VOL. NET, POSTAGE 5c. EXTRA + +THE NUMBERS MAKE ORDERING EASY. + + +1. EXERCISE AND HEALTH, by Dr. Woods Hutchinson. Dr. Hutchinson takes the +common-sense view that the greatest problem in exercise for most of us is +to get enough of the right kind. The greatest error in exercise is not to +take enough, and the greatest danger in athletics is in giving them up. He +writes in a direct matter-of-fact manner with an avoidance of medical +terms, and a strong emphasis on the rational, all-round manner of living +that is best calculated to bring a man to a ripe old age with little +illness or consciousness of bodily weakness. + +[Illustration] + +2. CAMP COOKERY, by Horace Kephart. "The less a man carries in his pack +the more he must carry in his head," says Mr. Kephart. This book tells +what a man should carry in both pack and head. Every step is traced--the +selection of provisions and utensils, with the kind and quantity of each, +the preparation of game, the building of fires, the cooking of every +conceivable kind of food that the camp outfit or woods, fields or streams +may provide--even to the making of desserts. Every recipe is the result of +hard practice and long experience. + +[Illustration] + +3. BACKWOODS SURGERY AND MEDICINE, by Charles S. Moody, M. D. A handy book +for the prudent lover of the woods who doesn't expect to be ill but +believes in being on the safe side. Common-sense methods for the treatment +of the ordinary wounds and accidents are described--setting a broken limb, +reducing a dislocation, caring for burns, cuts, etc. Practical remedies +for camp diseases are recommended, as well as the ordinary indications of +the most probable ailments. Includes a list of the necessary medical and +surgical supplies. + +4. APPLE GROWING, by M. C. Burritt. The various problems confronting the +apple grower, from the preparation of the soil and the planting of the +trees to the marketing of the fruit, are discussed in detail by the +author. Chapter headings are:--The Outlook for the Growing of +Apples--Planning for the Orchard--Planting and Growing the +Orchard--Pruning the Trees--Cultivation and Cover Cropping--Manuring and +Fertilizing--Insects and Diseases Affecting the Apple--The Principles and +Practice of Spraying--Harvesting and Storing--Markets and Marketing--Some +Hints on Renovating Old Orchards--The Cost of Growing Apples. + +5. THE AIREDALE, by Williams Haynes. The book opens with a short chapter +on the origin and development of the Airedale, as a distinctive breed. The +author then takes up the problems of type as bearing on the selection of +the dog, breeding, training and use. The book is designed for the +non-professional dog fancier, who wishes common sense advice which does +not involve elaborate preparations or expenditure. Chapters are included +on the care of the dog in the kennel and simple remedies for ordinary +diseases. + +6. THE AUTOMOBILE.--Its selection, Care and Use, by Robert Sloss. This is +a plain, practical discussion of the things that every man needs to know +if he is to buy the right car and get the most out of it. The various +details of operation and care are given in simple, intelligent terms. From +it the car owner can easily learn the mechanism of his motor and the art +of locating motor trouble, as well as how to use his car for the greatest +pleasure. A chapter is included on building garages. + +7. FISHING KITS AND EQUIPMENT, by Samuel G. Camp. A complete guide to the +angler buying a new outfit. Every detail of the fishing kit of the +freshwater angler is described, from rodtip to creel, and clothing. +Special emphasis is laid on outfitting for fly fishing, but full +instruction is also given to the man who wants to catch pickerel, pike, +muskellunge, lake-trout, bass and other freshwater game fishes. Prices are +quoted for all articles recommended and the approved method of selecting +and testing the various rods, lines, leaders, etc., is described. + +[Illustration] + +8. THE FINE ART OF FISHING, by Samuel G. Camp. Combine the pleasure of +catching fish with the gratification of following the sport in the most +approved manner. The suggestions offered are helpful to beginner and +expert anglers. The range of fish and fishing conditions covered is wide +and includes such subjects as "Casting Fine and Far Off," "Strip-Casting +for Bass," "Fishing for Mountain Trout" and "Autumn Fishing for Lake +Trout." The book is pervaded with a spirit of love for the streamside and +the out-doors generally which the genuine angler will appreciate. A +companion book to "Fishing Kits and Equipment." The advice on outfitting +so capably given in that book is supplemented in this later work by +equally valuable information on how to use the equipment. + +9. THE HORSE--Its Breeding, Care and Use, by David Buffum. Mr. Buffum +takes up the common, every-day problems of the ordinary horse-users, such +as feeding, shoeing, simple home remedies, breaking and the cure for +various equine vices. An important chapter is that tracing the influx of +Arabian blood into the English and American horses and its value and +limitations. Chapters are included on draft-horses, carriage horses, and +the development of the two-minute trotter. It is distinctly a sensible +book for the sensible man who wishes to know how he can improve his horses +and his horsemanship at the same time. + +10. THE MOTOR BOAT--Its Selection, Care and Use, by H. W. Slauson. The +intending purchaser is advised as to the type of motor boat best suited to +his particular needs and how to keep it in running condition after +purchased. The chapter headings are: Kinds and Uses of Motor Boats--When +the Motor Balks--Speeding of the Motor Boat--Getting More Power from a New +Motor--How to Install a Marine Power Plant--Accessories--Covers, Canopies +and Tops--Camping and Cruising--The Boathouse. + +11. OUTDOOR SIGNALLING, by Elbert Wells. Mr. Wells has perfected a method +of signalling by means of wig-wag, light, smoke, or whistle which is as +simple as it is effective. The fundamental principle can be learned in ten +minutes and its application is far easier than that of any other code now +in use. It permits also the use of cipher and can be adapted to almost any +imaginable conditions of weather, light, or topography. + +12. TRACKS AND TRACKING, by Josef Brunner. After twenty years of patient +study and practical experience, Mr. Brunner can, from his intimate +knowledge, speak with authority on this subject. "Tracks and Tracking" +shows how to follow intelligently even the most intricate animal or bird +tracks. It teaches how to interpret tracks of wild game and decipher the +many tell-tale signs of the chase that would otherwise pass unnoticed. It +proves how it is possible to tell from the footprints the name, sex, +speed, direction, whether and how wounded, and many other things about +wild animals and birds. All material has been gathered first hand; the +drawings and half-tones from photographs form an important part of the +work. + +[Illustration] + +13. WING AND TRAP-SHOOTING, by Charles Askins. Contains a full discussion +of the various methods, such as snap-shooting, swing and half-swing, +discusses the flight of birds with reference to the gunner's problem of +lead and range and makes special application of the various points to the +different birds commonly shot in this country. A chapter is included on +trap shooting and the book closes with a forceful and common-sense +presentation of the etiquette of the field. + +14. PROFITABLE BREEDS OF POULTRY, by Arthur S. Wheeler. Mr. Wheeler +discusses from personal experience the best-known general purpose breeds. +Advice is given from the standpoint of the man who desires results in eggs +and stock rather than in specimens for exhibition. In addition to a +careful analysis of stock--good and bad--and some conclusions regarding +housing and management, the author writes in detail regarding Plymouth +Rocks, Wyandottes, Orpingtons, Rhode Island Reds, Mediterraneans and the +Cornish. + +15. RIFLES AND RIFLE SHOOTING, by Charles Askins. A practical manual +describing various makes and mechanisms, in addition to discussing in +detail the range and limitations in the use of the rifle. Treats on the +every style and make of rifle as well as their use. Every type of rifle is +discussed so that the book is complete in every detail. + +16. SPORTING FIREARMS, by Horace Kephart. This book is the result of +painstaking tests and experiments. Practically nothing is taken for +granted. Part I deals with the rifle, and Part II with the shotgun. The +man seeking guidance in the selection and use of small firearms, as well +as the advanced student of the subject, will receive an unusual amount of +assistance from this work. The chapter headings are: Rifles and +Ammunition--The Flight of Bullets--Killing Power--Rifle Mechanism and +Materials--Rifle Sights--Triggers and Stocks--Care of Rifle--Shot Patterns +and Penetration--Gauges and Weights--Mechanism and Build of Shotguns. + +17. THE YACHTSMAN'S HANDBOOK, by Herbert L. Stone. The author and compiler +of this work is the editor of "Yachting." He treats in simple language of +the many problems confronting the amateur sailor and motor boatman. +Handling ground tackle, handling lines, taking soundings, the use of the +lead line, care and use of sails, yachting etiquette, are all given +careful attention. Some light is thrown upon the operation of the gasoline +motor, and suggestions are made for the avoidance of engine troubles. + +18. SCOTTISH AND IRISH TERRIERS, by Williams Haynes. This is a companion +book to "The Airedale," and deals with the history and development of both +breeds. For the owner of the dog, valuable information is given as to the +use of the terriers, their treatment in health, their treatment when sick, +the principles of dog breeding, and dog shows and rules. + +19. NAVIGATION FOR THE AMATEUR, by Capt. E. T. Morton. A short treatise on +the simpler methods of finding position at sea by the observation of the +sun's altitude and the use of the sextant and chronometer. It is arranged +especially for yachtsmen and amateurs who wish to know the simpler +formulae for the necessary navigation involved in taking a boat anywhere +off shore. Illustrated with drawings. Chapter headings: Fundamental +Terms--Time--The Sumner Line--The Day's Work, Equal Altitude, and +Ex-Meridian Sights--Hints on Taking Observations. + +20. OUTDOOR PHOTOGRAPHY, by Julian A. Dimock. A solution of all the +problems in camera work out-of-doors. The various subjects dealt with are: +The Camera--Lens and Plates--Light and Exposure--Development--Prints and +Printing--Composition--Landscapes--Figure Work--Speed Photography--The +Leaping Tarpon--Sea Pictures--In the Good Old Winter Time--Wild Life. + +21. PACKING AND PORTAGING, by Dillon Wallace. Mr. Wallace has brought +together in one volume all the valuable information on the different ways +of making and carrying the different kinds of packs. The ground covered +ranges from man-packing to horse-packing, from the use of the tump line to +throwing the diamond hitch. + +22. THE BULL TERRIER, by Williams Haynes. This is a companion book to "The +Airedale" and "Scottish and Irish Terriers" by the same author. Its +greatest usefulness is as a guide to the dog owner who wishes to be his +own kennel manager. A full account of the development of the breed is +given with a description of best types and standards. Recommendations for +the care of the dog in health or sickness are included. The chapter heads +cover such matters as:--The Bull Terrier's History--Training the Bull +Terrier--The Terrier in Health--Kenneling--Diseases. + +[Illustration] + +23. THE FOX TERRIER, by Williams Haynes. As in his other books on the +terrier, Mr. Haynes takes up the origin and history of the breed, its +types and standards, and the more exclusive representatives down to the +present time. Training the Fox Terrier--His Care and Kenneling in Sickness +and Health--and the Various Uses to Which He Can Be Put--are among the +phases handled. + +24. SUBURBAN GARDENS, by Grace Tabor. Illustrated with diagrams. The +author regards the house and grounds as a complete unit and shows how the +best results may be obtained by carrying the reader in detail through the +various phases of designing the garden, with the levels and contours +necessary, laying out the walks and paths, planning and placing the +arbors, summer houses, seats, etc., and selecting and placing trees, +shrubs, vines and flowers. Ideal plans for plots of various sizes are +appended, as well as suggestions for correcting mistakes that have been +made through "starting wrong." + +[Illustration] + +25. FISHING WITH FLOATING FLIES, by Samuel G. Camp. This is an art that is +comparatively new in this country although English anglers have used the +dry fly for generations. Mr. Camp has given the matter special study and +is one of the few American anglers who really understands the matter from +the selection of the outfit to the landing of the fish. His book takes up +the process in that order, namely--How to Outfit for Dry Fly Fishing--How, +Where, and When to Cast--The Selection and Use of Floating Flies--Dry Fly +Fishing for Brook, Brown and Rainbow Trout--Hooking, Playing and +Landing--Practical Hints on Dry Fly Fishing. + +26. THE GASOLINE MOTOR, by Harold Whiting Slauson. Deals with the +practical problems of motor operation. The standpoint is that of the man +who wishes to know how and why gasoline generates power and something +about the various types. Describes in detail the different parts of +motors and the faults to which they are liable. Also gives full +directions as to repair and upkeep. Various chapters deal with Types of +Motors--Valves--Bearings--Ignition--Carburetors--Lubrication--Fuel--Two +Cycle Motors. + +27. ICE BOATING, by H. L. Stone. Illustrated with diagrams. Here have been +brought together all the available information on the organization and +history of ice-boating, the building of the various types of ice yachts, +from the small 15 footer to the 600-foot racer, together with detailed +plans and specifications. Full information is also given to meet the needs +of those who wish to be able to build and sail their own boats but are +handicapped by the lack of proper knowledge as to just the points +described in this volume. + +28. MODERN GOLF, by Harold H. Hilton. Mr. Hilton is the only man who has +ever held the amateur championship of Great Britain and the United States +in the same year. In addition to this, he has, for years, been recognized +as one of the most intelligent, steady players of the game in England. +This book is a product of his advanced thought and experience and gives +the reader sound advice, not so much on the mere swinging of the clubs as +in the actual playing of the game, with all the factors that enter into +it. He discusses the use of wooden clubs, the choice of clubs, the art of +approaching, tournament play as a distinct thing in itself, and kindred +subjects. + +29. INTENSIVE FARMING, by L. C. Corbett. A discussion of the meaning, +method and value of intensive methods in agriculture. This book is +designed for the convenience of practical farmers who find themselves +under the necessity of making a living out of high-priced land. + +30. PRACTICAL DOG BREEDING, by Williams Haynes. This is a companion volume +to PRACTICAL DOG KEEPING, described below. It goes at length into the +fundamental questions of breeding, such as selection of types on both +sides, the perpetuation of desirable, and the elimination of undesirable, +qualities, the value of prepotency in building up a desired breed, etc. +The arguments are illustrated with instances of what has been +accomplished, both good and bad, in the case of well-known breeds. + +31. PRACTICAL DOG KEEPING, by Williams Haynes. Mr. Haynes is well known to +the readers of the OUTING HANDBOOKS as the author of books on the +terriers. His new book is somewhat more ambitious in that it carries him +into the general field of selection of breeds, the buying and selling of +dogs, the care of dogs in kennels, handling in bench shows and field +trials, and at considerable length into such subjects as food and feeding, +exercise and grooming, disease, etc. + +[Illustration] + +32. THE VEGETABLE GARDEN, by R. L. Watts. This book is designed for the +small grower with a limited plot of ground. The reader is told what types +of vegetables to select, the manner of planting and cultivation, and the +returns that may be expected. + +33. AMATEUR RODMAKING, by Perry D. Frazer. Illustrated. A practical manual +for all those who want to make their own rod and fittings. It contains a +review of fishing rod history, a discussion of materials, a list of the +tools needed, description of the method to be followed in making all kinds +of rods, including fly-casting, bait-fishing, salmon, etc., with full +instructions for winding, varnishing, etc. + +34. PISTOL AND REVOLVER SHOOTING, by A. L. A. Himmelwright. A new and +revised edition of a work that has already achieved prominence as an +accepted authority on the use of the hand gun. Full instructions are given +in the use of both revolver and target pistol, including shooting +position, grip, position of arm, etc. The book is thoroughly illustrated +with diagrams and photographs and includes the rules of the United States +Revolver Association and a list of the records made both here and abroad. + +35. PIGEON RAISING, by Alice MacLeod. This is a book for both fancier and +market breeder. Full descriptions are given of the construction of houses, +the care of the birds, preparation for market, and shipment. Descriptions +of the various breeds with their markings and characteristics are given. +Illustrated with photographs and diagrams. + +36. FISHING TACKLE, by Perry D. Frazer. Illustrated. The subtitle is +descriptive. "Hints for Beginners in the Selection, Care, and Use of Rods, +Reels, Lines, etc." It tells all the fisherman needs to know about making +and overhauling his tackle during the closed season and gives full +instructions for tournament casting and fly-casting. Chapters are included +on cases and holders for the care of tackle when not in use. + +37. AUTOMOBILE OPERATION, by A. L. Brennan, Jr. Illustrated. Tells the +plain truth about the little things that every motorist wants to know +about his own car. Do you want to cure ignition troubles? Overhaul and +adjust your carbureter? Keep your transmission in order? Get the maximum +wear out of your tires? Do any other of the hundred and one things that +are necessary for the greatest use and enjoyment of your car? Then you +will find this book useful. + +38. THE FOX HOUND, by Roger D. Williams. Author of "Horse and Hound". +Illustrated. The author is the foremost authority on fox hunting and +foxhounds in America. For years he has kept the foxhound studbook, and is +the final source of information on all disputed points relating to this +breed. His book discusses types, methods of training, kenneling, diseases +and all the other practical points relating to the use and care of the +hound. An appendix is added containing the rules and regulations of hound +field trials. + +39. SALT WATER GAME FISHING, by Charles F. Holder. Mr. Holder covers the +whole field of his subject devoting a chapter each to such fish as the +tuna, the tarpon, amberjack, the sail fish, the yellow-tail, the king +fish, the barracuda, the sea bass and the small game fishes of Florida, +Porto Rico, the Pacific Coast, Hawaii, and the Philippines. The habits and +habitats of the fish are described, together with the methods and tackle +for taking them. The book concludes with an account of the development and +rules of the American Sea Angling Clubs. Illustrated. + +40. WINTER CAMPING, by Warwick S. Carpenter. A book that meets the +increasing interest in outdoor life in the cold weather. Mr. Carpenter +discusses such subjects as shelter equipment, clothing, food, snowshoeing, +skiing, and winter hunting, wild life in winter woods, care of frost bite, +etc. It is based on much actual experience in winter camping and is fully +illustrated with working photographs. + +41. WOODCRAFT FOR WOMEN, by Mrs. Kathrene Gedney Pinkerton. The author has +spent several years in the Canadian woods and is thoroughly familiar with +the subject from both the masculine and feminine point of view. She gives +sound tips on clothing, camping outfit, food supplies, and methods, by +which the woman may adjust herself to the outdoor environment. + +42. SMALL BOAT BUILDING, by H. W. Patterson. Illustrated with diagrams and +plans. A working manual for the man who wants to be his own designer and +builder. Detail descriptions and drawings are given showing the various +stages in the building, and chapters are included on proper materials and +details. + +43. *READING THE WEATHER, by T. Morris Longstreth. The author gives in +detail the various recognized signs for different kinds of weather based +primarily on the material worked out by the Government Weather Bureau, +gives rules by which the character and duration of storms may be +estimated, and gives instructions for sensible use of the barometer. He +also gives useful information as to various weather averages for different +parts of the country, at different times of the year, and furnishes sound +advice for the camper, sportsman, and others who wish to know what they +may expect in the weather line. + +44. BOXING, by D. C. Hutchison. Practical instruction for men who wish to +learn the first steps in the manly art. Mr. Hutchison writes from long +personal experience as an amateur boxer and as a trainer of other +amateurs. His instructions are accompanied with full diagrams showing the +approved blows and guards. He also gives full directions for training for +condition without danger of going stale from overtraining. It is +essentially a book for the amateur who boxes for sport and exercise. + +45. TENNIS TACTICS, by Raymond D. Little. Out of his store of experience +as a successful tennis player, Mr. Little has written this practical guide +for those who wish to know how real tennis is played. He tells the reader +when and how to take the net, discusses the relative merits of the +back-court and volleying game and how their proper balance may be +achieved; analyzes and appraises the twist service, shows the fundamental +necessities of successful doubles play. + +46. *HOW TO PLAY TENNIS, by James Burns. This book gives simple, direct +instruction from the professional standpoint on the fundamentals of the +game. It tells the reader how to hold his racket, how to swing it for the +various strokes, how to stand and how to cover the court. These points are +illustrated with photographs and diagrams. The author also illustrates the +course of the ball in the progress of play and points out the positions of +greatest safety and greatest danger. + +47. TAXIDERMY, by Leon L. Pray. Illustrated with diagrams. Being a +practical taxidermist, the author at once goes into the question of +selection of tools and materials for the various stages of skinning, +stuffing and mounting. The subjects whose handling is described are, for +the most part, the every-day ones, such as ordinary birds, small mammals, +etc., although adequate instructions are included for mounting big game +specimens, as well as the preliminary care of skins in hot climates. Full +diagrams accompany the text. + +48. THE CANOE--ITS SELECTION, CARE AND USE, by Robert E. Pinkerton. +Illustrated with photographs. With proper use the canoe is one of the +safest crafts that floats. Mr. Pinkerton tells how that state of safety +may be obtained. He gives full instructions for the selection of the right +canoe for each particular purpose or set of conditions. Then he tells how +it should be used in order to secure the maximum of safety, comfort and +usefulness. His own lesson was learned among the Indians of Canada, where +paddling is a high art, and the use of the canoe almost as much a matter +of course as the wearing of moccasins. + +49. HORSE PACKING, by Charles J. Post. Illustrated with diagrams. This is +a complete description of the hitches, knots, and apparatus used in making +and carrying loads of various kinds on horseback. Its basis is the methods +followed in the West and in the American Army. The diagrams are full and +detailed, giving the various hitches and knots at each of the important +stages so that even the novice can follow and use them. It is the only +book ever published on this subject of which this could be said. Full +description is given of the ideal pack animal, as well as a catalogue of +the diseases and injuries to which such animals are subject. + +51. *LEARNING TO SKATE, by J. F. Verne. The general problem of the art of +skating is taken up from the standpoint of the man or woman who puts on +skates for the first time. Fundamental rules are laid down for learning +the simpler strokes, carrying the reader on through to speed and fancy +skating. Advice is included on the proper skates and clothing. + +52. *TOURING AFOOT, by Dr. C. P. Fordyce. Illustrated. This book is +designed to meet the growing interest in walking trips and covers the +whole field of outfit and method for trips of varying length. Various +standard camping devices are described and outfits are prescribed for all +conditions. It is based on the assumption that the reader will want to +carry on his own back everything that he requires for the trip. + +53. *THE MARINE MOTOR, by Lieut. Frank W. Sterling, U. S. N. Illustrated +with diagrams. This book is the product of a wide experience on the +engineering staff of the United States Navy. It gives careful descriptions +of the various parts of the marine motor, their relation to the whole and +their method of operation; it also describes the commoner troubles and +suggests remedies. The principal types of engines are described in detail +with diagrams. The object is primarily to give the novice a good working +knowledge of his engine, its operation and care. + + + +***END OF THE PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK READING THE WEATHER*** + + +******* This file should be named 39466.txt or 39466.zip ******* + + +This and all associated files of various formats will be found in: +http://www.gutenberg.org/dirs/3/9/4/6/39466 + + + +Updated editions will replace the previous one--the old editions +will be renamed. + +Creating the works from public domain print editions means that no +one owns a United States copyright in these works, so the Foundation +(and you!) can copy and distribute it in the United States without +permission and without paying copyright royalties. Special rules, +set forth in the General Terms of Use part of this license, apply to +copying and distributing Project Gutenberg-tm electronic works to +protect the PROJECT GUTENBERG-tm concept and trademark. 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