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diff --git a/.gitattributes b/.gitattributes new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6833f05 --- /dev/null +++ b/.gitattributes @@ -0,0 +1,3 @@ +* text=auto +*.txt text +*.md text diff --git a/36994-h.zip b/36994-h.zip Binary files differnew file mode 100644 index 0000000..c8efab4 --- /dev/null +++ b/36994-h.zip diff --git a/36994-h/36994-h.htm b/36994-h/36994-h.htm new file mode 100644 index 0000000..8f2252d --- /dev/null +++ b/36994-h/36994-h.htm @@ -0,0 +1,1506 @@ +<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN" + "http://www.w3.org/TR/html4/loose.dtd"> +<html> +<head> +<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1"> +<title>The Project Gutenberg eBook of The Future of Brooklyn, by +Alfred Clark Chapin</title> +<style type="text/css"> + + body {margin-left: 12%; + margin-right: 12%;} + + p {text-indent: 0em; + text-align: justify; + margin-top: .85em; + margin-bottom: .85em; + line-height: 1.25em;} + + .ctr {text-align: center;} + + .sc {font-variant: small-caps;} + + .sig {margin-left: 49%; + text-align: left;} + + h1 {font-size: 140%; + text-align: center; + margin-top: 1em; + margin-bottom: 1em;} + + h2 {font-size: 115%; + text-align: center; + margin-top: 1em; + margin-bottom: 1em;} + + h3 {font-size: 100%; + text-align: center; + margin-top: 1em; + margin-bottom: 1em;} + + h4 {text-align: center; + font-size: 95%;} + + hr.med {width: 65%; + margin-top: 2.5em; + margin-bottom: 2.5em;} + + hr.tiny {width: 35%; + margin-top: .5em; + margin-bottom: .5em;} + + table {margin-left: auto; + margin-right: auto;} + + table.right {margin-left: 73%;} + + td.c{text-align: center;} + td.r {text-align: right;} + + td.right {text-align: right; + padding-right: 25px;} + + td.alignright {text-align: right; + padding-right: 15px;} + +</style> +</head> +<body> + + +<pre> + +The Project Gutenberg EBook of The Future of Brooklyn, by Alfred C. Chapin + +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + + +Title: The Future of Brooklyn + +Author: Alfred C. Chapin + +Release Date: August 7, 2011 [EBook #36994] + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: ISO-8859-1 + +*** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE FUTURE OF BROOKLYN *** + + + + +Produced by The Online Distributed Proofreading Team at +http://www.pgdp.net (This file was produced from images +generously made available by The Internet Archive) + + + + + + +</pre> + + +<h1> +THE FUTURE OF BROOKLYN. +</h1> +<br><hr class="tiny"><br> +<h2> +THE CITY'S PROMISED GROWTH AND INCREASE,<br> +WITH COMMENTS ON THE BUILDING STATISTICS<br> +FOR THE YEAR 1888. +</h2> +<br><br><br> +<hr class="tiny"> +<h1>MESSAGE</h1> + +<h4>OF THE</h4> + +<h1>HON. ALFRED C. CHAPIN,</h1> + +<h3>MAYOR.</h3> + +<h2> +DECEMBER 13, 1888. +</h2> + +<hr class="med"> + +<table class="right" summary="Location and date"> +<tr> +<td class="c"><span class="sc">Mayor's Office</span>,</td> +<td class="r" rowspan="3"><img src="images/brace.jpg" alt="Brace" width="13" height="80"></td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c"><span class="sc">City Hall, Brooklyn</span></td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c">December 13, 1888</td> +</tr> +</table> + + +<p> +<i>To the Honorable, the Common Council</i>: +</p> + +<p> +<span class="sc">Gentlemen</span>: +</p> + +<p> +In this message I shall attempt a general statement of the condition +of the city, and of its building operations. For the purpose of +broadly considering the city's present condition and standing among +similar communities, the returns of the recent Presidential election +furnish valuable data. Presidential elections call out a full vote, +and thus afford an indication of the relative growth of the different +cities of the country. The following table is believed to correctly +state the total number of votes cast in the four leading cities for +President at the recent election: +</p> + +<p class="ctr"> +Total vote cast in 1888. +</p> +<table summary="Total number of votes case"> +<tr> +<td>New York</td> +<td> </td> +<td class="right">270,194</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td>Philadelphia</td> +<td> </td> +<td class="right">205,747</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td>Brooklyn</td> +<td> </td> +<td class="right">148,868</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td>Chicago</td> +<td> </td> +<td class="right">123,475</td> +</tr> +</table> + +<p> +In 1880 the vote of these several cities in the Presidential election +bore the following proportion to the population as shown by the census +of the same year: +</p> + +<p class="ctr"> +Number of population to each voter in 1880: +</p> +<table summary="Number of population to each voter in 1880"> +<tr> +<td>New York</td> +<td> </td> +<td class="right">5.87.</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td>Philadelphia</td> +<td> </td> +<td class="right">4.92.</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td>Brooklyn</td> +<td> </td> +<td class="right">5.29.</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td>Chicago</td> +<td> </td> +<td class="right">6.06.</td> +</tr> +</table> + +<p> +The following table contains the population of each city in 1880, and +the apparent population at present, basing the estimate upon the vote +of this year, and assuming the ratio of population to the numbers of +voters to remain the same as in 1880: +</p> + +<table summary="Population of each city in 1880"> +<tr> +<td> </td> +<td> </td> +<td class="c">Apparent</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td> </td> +<td class="c">Population in 1880.</td> +<td class="c">population in 1888.</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td>New York,</td> +<td class="right">1,206,299.</td> +<td class="right">1,585,529.</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td>Philadelphia,</td> +<td class="right">847,170.</td> +<td class="right">1,014,332.</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td>Brooklyn,</td> +<td class="right">566,663.</td> +<td class="right">782,221.</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td>Chicago,</td> +<td class="right">503,185.</td> +<td class="right">748,258.</td> +</tr> +</table> + +<p> +The method of reaching this conclusion cannot be called unduly +favorable to our city. The difference in the ratio existing between +the population and the voters in 1880 in Chicago and in Brooklyn would +seem to indicate either that Chicago possessed an unusually large +unnaturalized population, or else that it did not poll its full vote. +If the unnaturalized population of our own city is larger than it was +in 1880, the above estimate may be too small. If the increase of +population since 1880 has been one that brought with it a larger +proportion of women and children than the increase before 1880, the +above estimate is too small. Whether either of these possible +modifications should be given serious consideration is a matter of +conjecture upon which some light may be thrown by what will be set +forth in this communication. +</p> + +<p> +The twenty-six wards now comprising the city of Brooklyn, contained in +1880 a population of 580,313; if, therefore, their present population +as above estimated is 782,221, there has been an increase in eight +years of 201,903, or an average annual gain for each of those years of +25,237. But the population in 1870 was 396,099, and in 1875, as +enumerated by the State Census, it was 484,616, showing a gain for the +five years of 87,518, or an average annually of 17,500. Between 1875 +and 1880 it rose to 566,663, the total gain for the five years being +82,047, the average annual gain being 16,400. It should, therefore, +first be noticed that the rate of increase of the last decade was more +rapid during its first half than during its closing half. The present +decade began in a period of more moderate growth than that of some +years previous. We may, I think, safely assume that the falling off in +the gain between 1875 and 1880 was largely due to the opening of the +system of elevated roads in New York City in 1878. Making all +necessary allowance for the increase due to the Twenty-sixth Ward, +which was not a part of the city in 1880, it is still impossible to +believe that the average annual gain of 16,400 which prevailed from +1875 to 1880 could have been abruptly changed to the average annual +gain of 25,237 which has prevailed from 1880 to the present time. We +must, then, assume that during the years since 1880 the rate of growth +of the city has advanced quite materially; and that the average +increase of the first three or four years of the present decade may +not have been much in excess of the average increase of the five years +from 1875 to 1880. A sufficient cause for the change of the rate of +growth is furnished in the opening of the Bridge in 1883. +</p> + +<p> +A further promoting cause is found in the opening of the Brooklyn +Elevated Railway in 1885. We must, therefore, assume the average +annual gain for the past eight years (of 25,237) to be greater than +the average gain of the three or four years following 1880. If so, it +is obvious that the gains for the present year and for the years +immediately preceding must have been greater than 25,000. That the two +causes suggested contributed to change the rate of growth is not +likely to be questioned by any one. But they are only the +accompaniments of a broader and more persistent cause, which is the +fundamental reason of the existence of the bridge and of our present +system of rapid transit. This larger cause is a general change in the +relation between New York and Brooklyn, gradually manifesting itself +as a necessary result of the development of the whole metropolitan +community surrounding the port of New York. The first two causes, +therefore, though permanent, were auxiliary and specific. The last is +a general, continuous condition, whose force seems unlikely to +decline, but more likely to augment from year to year. The first two +causes, also, may be said to have a fixed or, at all events, an +ascertainable maximum influence, based upon their respective capacity +to transport passengers. They are merely methods of transit. Their +capacity may in time be exhausted. In such case they may be +supplemented; new bridges can be built, and doubtless will be; newer +elevated railroads have been built and opened for business since the +construction of the one already mentioned. More elevated railroads are +to be built. In addition to the Brooklyn Elevated Railroad Company, +already named, now operating six and three-fourths miles of railroad, +the Kings County Elevated Railroad Company is operating five and +one-half miles of railroad, and the Union Elevated Railroad Company is +operating four and three-fifths miles, forming together a system of +nearly seventeen miles, which promises to increase its capacity as +well as its mileage. Construction is still progressing upon these +lines, and it is reported that at the close of the year 1889, or +earlier, there will be twenty-five miles of elevated railroad in +operation in the city. +</p> + +<p> +These features of the city's condition call attention to the fact that +we have reached a period of development, at which it is our duty to +provide clearly and understandingly for the needs of a far greater +population than that now included within our limits. +</p> + +<p> +In earlier days Americans did much empty boasting and made many +glorious predictions. At the same time, so far as material +preparations are concerned, they could do little for those coming +after them. The art of living had not then been studied as it since +has been. Sanitary science can hardly be said to have been in its +infancy, for in this country it seemed to have no existence whatever. +In the establishing of enduring and fundamental principles of +government, and in the field of law much was done for us and for our +posterity by the men of previous generations, but it was necessary +that there should be a gradual education of the business sense of the +country before men could appreciate the nature and import of the +problems now presented in the growth of cities. It was necessary that +a more leisurely aspect should come over life; that comfort and health +should be more highly prized. The more purely intellectual side of our +ancestors' work was well done; but the needs of the by no means +distant future, the inheritances which our successors should receive +from us, are of a different description. Pavements, sewers, sufficient +water supply, parks, schools, public buildings, an enlarged +application of the results attained in sanitary science, and the solid +work of masonry are the inheritances we should transmit, rather than +far reaching adjudications, such as that of the Dartmouth College +case, or comprehensive enactments, such as the ordinance establishing +the Northwest Territory. Naturally, the greatest and most pressing +need will arise here at the centre of the greatest population. How +great that need may be, or how great a population may congregate +within our area or upon the borders of the bay of New York, we cannot +indeed actually estimate, but to some extent we can forecast it. Such +forecasts are not useless. In his message of December, 1861, President +Lincoln said: "There are already among us those who, if the Union be +preserved, will live to see it contain two hundred and fifty +millions." Such a vision of the future, at a time of extreme trial, +seemed to him neither vain nor fanciful. Its utterance was evidence +that he possessed the sort of political imagination which a statesman +should possess if he is to discern the drift of public thought, or to +picture the future material condition of his country. When compared +with other estimates, his outlook was not extravagant, though it may +not be realized. Its concern for us is direct and unavoidable. For the +course of history, in our own land and abroad, makes it clear that the +population about the port of New York is to hold a place of high +importance in the nation, both numerical and otherwise. +</p> + +<p> +The State of New York passed to the first place in population in the +nation in 1820. Since that day the population of the Union, of the +State of New York, and the combined population of the cities of New +York and Brooklyn, at each decade from 1820 to 1880, and the +percentage of increase in each decade, have been as follows: +</p> + +<table summary="Populations"> +<tr> +<td class="c">Year.</td> +<td class="c">Population of New York and Brooklyn</td> +<td class="c">Increase per cent.</td> +<td class="c">Population of the State of New York.</td> +<td class="c">Increase per cent.</td> +<td class="c">Population of the United States.</td> +<td class="c">Increase per cent.</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c">1820</td> +<td class="right">130,881</td> +<td class="right"> </td> +<td class="right">1,372,111</td> +<td class="right"> </td> +<td class="right">9,633,822</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c">1830</td> +<td class="right">215,049</td> +<td class="right">64.3</td> +<td class="right">1,918,608</td> +<td class="right">39.8</td> +<td class="right">12,866,020</td> +<td class="right">32.51</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c">1840</td> +<td class="right">348,943</td> +<td class="right">62.2</td> +<td class="right">2,428,926</td> +<td class="right">26.5</td> +<td class="right">17,069,453</td> +<td class="right">33.52</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c">1850</td> +<td class="right">612,385</td> +<td class="right">75.5</td> +<td class="right">3,097,394</td> +<td class="right">27.5</td> +<td class="right">23,191,876</td> +<td class="right">33.83</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c">1860</td> +<td class="right">1,072,312</td> +<td class="right">75.1</td> +<td class="right">3,880,735</td> +<td class="right">25.2</td> +<td class="right">31,443,321</td> +<td class="right">35.11</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c">1870</td> +<td class="right">1,338,391</td> +<td class="right">24.8</td> +<td class="right">4,382,759</td> +<td class="right">12.9</td> +<td class="right">38,558,371</td> +<td class="right">22.65</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c">1880</td> +<td class="right">1,772,962</td> +<td class="right">32.4</td> +<td class="right">5,082,871</td> +<td class="right">15.9</td> +<td class="right">50,155.783</td> +<td class="right">30.08</td> +</tr> +</table> + +<p> +Thus the combined population of New York and Brooklyn has at all times +since 1830 grown at a rate much more rapid than that of the growth of +the State of New York; the rate of growth of the two cities has at all +times exceeded the rate of growth of the population of the whole +Union, although the rate of growth of the population of the State of +New York has not kept pace with that of the population of the United +States since 1830. But for the growth of the two cities, the State +would, before this time, have ceased to hold the first place. The +degree to which the population of the two cities has gained upon that +of the State in the whole period, is quite notable. Their proportion +of the population of the State in 1820 was less than one-tenth; while +in 1880 more than one-third of the population of the State lived in +Brooklyn and New York. On the other hand, in 1820, the State of New +York included more than one-eighth of the population of the whole +Union; while in 1880 it embraced a little less than one-tenth of that +population. At present, adopting the estimates already given, based +upon the Presidential vote for this year, New York and Brooklyn +include nearly, if not quite, two-fifths of the population of the +whole State. +</p> + +<p> +Without adopting Lincoln's prediction, we need only look forward to a +time when the country may contain one hundred and fifty million +people. Even then, the density of its population will be much less +than that of older countries or of some States of the Union. If the +population of the State of New York failed to hold its present +relation, and fell off until it numbered but eight per cent. or about +one-twelfth of the population of the Union, it would still contain +more than twelve millions of people, of which a population surpassing +one-half might be found in or near these two cities. As the two cities +grow, apparently an increasing proportion of that growth must come to +Brooklyn. The mere question of area goes far to determine such a +result. Each mile of departure from the New York City Hall emphasizes +the inequality in the quantity of residence area lying respectively +upon Manhattan Island and within our limits. It is four miles from the +New York City Hall to Sixtieth street; and the capacity of the area +below that street for purposes of residence may be said to be well +nigh exhausted. The encroachments of business below that division line +seem likely to diminish its capacity to furnish homes nearly as +rapidly as improvements in building methods may augment such capacity. +Of the twenty-four Assembly Districts in the City of New York, +nineteen—to wit, one to eighteen inclusive, and the twentieth—lie +wholly below Fifty-ninth street. In these nineteen districts the +increase of registration in 1888 over that of 1884 is 13,641. The +remaining five districts lie almost wholly above Fifty-ninth street; +and in them the increase is 32,110. Apparently more than seventy per +cent. of the growth of New York during the past four years has been +north of Fifty-ninth street. Not only must this comparatively fixed +condition of New York below Fifty-ninth street remain or become more +and more marked, but the line of division between the growing and the +fixed parts of the city must rapidly shift from Fifty-ninth street to +One Hundred and Tenth street. For of the area between Fifty-ninth +street and One Hundred and Tenth street a substantial part is devoted +to Central Park, and is unavailable for residences. Furthermore, the +presence of Central Park causes land east and west of it to be much +sought after, and to command high prices. That part of New York, +therefore, which lies between Fifty-ninth street and One Hundred and +Tenth street is to be largely taken by people whose means are +abundant, and of the space not already occupied, but a small part will +be left for the sort of population from which Brooklyn draws its chief +and characteristic growth. +</p> + +<p> +How far existing conditions may be disturbed by new means of transit +or by new works of life in New York City, no one can now tell. At +present, the broad fact is, that the whole area of Brooklyn (excepting +only the more remote parts of the Twenty-sixth Ward, the former town +of New Lots) is nearer in distance to the New York City Hall than that +part of New York City lying above One Hundred and Tenth street. +</p> + +<p> +Furthermore, the residence area lying between Fifty-ninth and One +Hundred and Tenth streets in New York is not one-seventh of that lying +between lines of like distance in Kings County. +</p> + +<p> +To attempt a close estimate of the future population of New York and +Brooklyn might be neither wise nor profitable. Some conception of the +general course or character of that development is the most that is +practicable. All nineteenth century progress discloses a tendency to +concentration of population. In our own country the inhabitants of +cities formed one-thirtieth of the population in 1790; one-eighth in +1850; and nine-fortieths or half way between one-fifth and one-fourth +in 1880. In this State a full one-half of the population dwelt in +cities in 1880. The proportion now is not less than three-fifths, and +is rapidly approaching, if it has not already reached, five-eighths. +</p> + +<p> +The population of the Union since 1820 has increased at a rate varying +by decades from over 35 per cent. to 22.65 per cent. The lowest rate +was that of the war decade. The rate per decade since 1870 has been +more than 30 per cent. The population of the cities of New York and +Brooklyn has at all times increased more rapidly than that of the +nation. This was true even during the war decade, although the marked +falling off of their rate of growth in that decade disclosed a decided +sensitiveness to whatever influences accelerated or retarded national +growth. New York and Brooklyn, indeed, have at all times shown by +their rate and character of progress and growth that they are +reflections of the development of the nation rather than of that of +any State or locality. We may, therefore, safely say that the growth +of the united population of New York and Brooklyn hereafter, as in the +past, will depend chiefly upon the general progress of the whole +nation. How rapid this progress will continue, how great proportions +it may finally attain can only be vaguely conjectured. Lincoln's +forecast of two hundred and fifty millions of souls during the life +time of people who were in existence in 1861, would seem to have been +over-sanguine, although it was not without parallel or precedent. The +decade between 1850 and 1860, at the close of which he was speaking, +had witnessed a most rapid national growth, that is, a rate of more +than thirty-five per cent. for the whole Union. Percentages decline as +aggregates increase. The rate of thirty per cent. which has prevailed +since 1870, would not produce two hundred and fifty millions +(250,000,000) of people until after 1940. It is too much to assume +that such a rate of national growth will continue. Its continuance for +so long a period would involve an increase of over forty millions +(40,000,000) between 1920 and 1930, and over fifty-five millions +(55,000,000) between 1930 and 1940. It seems more reasonable to expect +a gradual decline in the rate of increase, and that the relation +between this country and Europe will more closely approach an +equilibrium, accompanied or followed by a diminution of the force of +immigration as a factor in our national growth. Immigration in the +past has fluctuated widely. The total number of immigrants landing in +this country for the whole decade closing in 1880, was less than that +for the first five years of the present decade. To what degree the +population of the future will dwell in cities can perhaps best be +foretold by present indications in our own land, or by the conditions +prevailing in more thickly settled nations. Present indications here, +as has been pointed out, suggest a city growth more rapid than that of +the remainder of the population. Among the older nations, the +population of the British Isles may be said to resemble our own most +closely. The population of Great Britain and Ireland in 1881 was +thirty-five millions (35,000,000). More than one-tenth of this +population was contained in London alone. Such an urban population +manifestly sustains itself largely if not chiefly upon the commercial +and maritime importance of the nation containing it, and only to a +minor degree upon the community surrounding it. This condition of +existence may never be as emphatically true of the population about +the port of New York as it is of the population of London, yet it has +always been believed that the final commercial position of our nation +must be one of commanding importance. That belief compels the +inference that the great port of the nation and of the continent must +continue to attract an enormous population. That the present rate of +growth, which adds 30 per cent. to the population of New York, and +more than 40 per cent. to that of Brooklyn, in every ten years, will +endure, need not be expected. The results of a computation upon such a +basis seem incredible, since they call for a population of three +million five hundred thousand (3,500,000) in New York in 1920, and of +two million two hundred thousand (2,200,000) in Brooklyn at the same +time. But we may well believe that in the nation there will be a +gradual approach to the density of population now maintained in older +countries; that this port will hold its place as a general point of +concentration and distribution for the nation, the continent, perhaps +for the world; and that the excess of residence area in and about our +own city over the corresponding area of New York must continue to tell +in our favor, probably with increasing force. +</p> + +<p> +Looking back no further than 1850, and comparing the two cities with +each other, the following table shows their numbers and rate of growth +in the successive decades: +</p> +<table summary="Numbers and rate of growth"> +<tr> +<td class="c">Years.</td> +<td class="c">Population<br>of<br>New York.</td> +<td class="c">Increase,<br>per cent.</td> +<td class="c">Population<br>of<br>Brooklyn.</td> +<td class="c">Increase<br>per cent.</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c">1850</td> +<td class="right">515,547</td> +<td class="right"> </td> +<td class="right">96,838</td> +<td class="right"> </td> +</tr> + + +<tr> +<td class="c">1860</td> +<td class="right">05,651</td> +<td class="right">56.2</td> +<td class="right">266,661</td> +<td class="right">175.3</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c">1870</td> +<td class="right">942,292</td> +<td class="right">16.9</td> +<td class="right">396,099</td> +<td class="right">48.5</td> +</tr> + + +<tr> +<td class="c">1880</td> +<td class="right">1,206,299</td> +<td class="right">28.0</td> +<td class="right">566,663</td> +<td class="right">43.0</td> +</tr> +</table> + +<p> +As the present Twenty-sixth Ward of Brooklyn was not a part of the +city in 1880, a comparison of the population of Brooklyn, as the city +is now constituted, with the population of the City of New York would +be as follows: +</p> + +<p> +The figures for 1888 for both cities are estimated on the basis +already stated. +</p> + +<table summary="Comparison between Brooklyn and New York City"> +<tr> +<td class="c">Year.</td> +<td class="c">New York.</td> +<td class="c">Increase<br>per cent.</td> +<td class="c">Brooklyn.</td> +<td class="c">Increase<br>per cent.</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c">1880</td> +<td class="alignright">1,206,299</td> +<td class="alignright"> </td> +<td class="alignright">580,318</td> +<td class="alignright"> </td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c">1888</td> +<td class="alignright"><u>1,585,529</u></td> +<td class="alignright"> </td> +<td class="alignright"><u>782,221</u></td> +<td class="alignright"> </td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c"> </td> +<td class="alignright">379,230</td> +<td class="c">23.9</td> +<td class="alignright">201,903</td> +<td class="c">34.7</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c"> </td> +<td class="alignright"> </td> +<td class="c">3 pr. cent.<br>per year.</td> +<td class="alignright"> </td> +<td class="c">4.3 pr. cent.<br>per year.</td> +</tr> +</table> + +<p> +The records of the Building Department aid in testing the estimates +already submitted, and more strikingly in disclosing the character of +the population now coming to us. During the twelve months ending on +November 30 of this year, 4,226 permits were granted for buildings of +all varieties, estimated by their projectors to cost $22,377,825. The +estimated value of this proposed construction has not been exceeded +during any similar period in the City's history. The buildings of a +residence description were to furnish accommodation for 10,457 +families. Not every building for which a permit is issued is +afterwards completed, but the magnitude of the volume of the business +of this department—even after making all reasonable deductions for +the plans not carried out—at least justifies all that has been said +thus far concerning the City's present proportions and rate of +progress. The United States census of 1880 declared the City's +population of 566,663 to be contained in 115,076 families; thus fixing +the average membership of each family at 4.92. It is hardly credible +therefore that the permits issued for residence purposes during the +past year represent the City's actual growth during any given period +of twelve months. If families now average as then, these permits would +furnish homes for more than 51,000 souls—a number, to my mind, in +excess of the City's yearly growth. We must, therefore, assume that +there is some discrepancy between the methods of designation employed +in 1880 by the United States officials and those of the building +department, or that the average number of persons in each family is +now less than in 1880, or that these permits represent more than the +actual needs of the period during which they were granted. Probably +the last supposition is best founded. Like New York, the City may have +been overbuilt during the past two or three years, and this record, no +doubt, exhibits some permits not acted upon and some construction due +to the impetus of the speculative ardor of 1885, 1886, and 1887. This +view is confirmed by the statement of the number and cost of the +buildings actually completed during the calendar years 1886 and 1887, +and the first eleven months of the present year. +</p> + +<table summary="Number and cost of the +buildings actually completed during the calendar years 1886 and 1887" cellspacing="4"> + +<tr> +<td class="c">Year.</td> +<td class="c">No. of<br>Buildings.</td> +<td class="c">Estimated<br>Cost.</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c">1886.</td> +<td class="alignright">3,990.</td> +<td class="alignright">$20,318,485.</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c">1887.</td> +<td class="alignright">3,875.</td> +<td class="alignright">18,008,325.</td> +</tr> + +<tr> +<td class="c">1888 to Dec. 1.</td> +<td class="alignright">3,155.</td> +<td class="alignright">15,711,070.</td> +</tr> +</table> + +<p> +While these figures, together with the record of the twelve months +ending upon November 30, 1888, as already given, can not, from their +nature, lead to a precise mathematical conclusion, they indicate most +clearly a degree of activity in construction in which a slight decline +in rapidity might be a cause for congratulation rather than for +regret. The substantial prosperity of the City was at one time +threatened by the over-speculative temper of builders. Conservative +witnesses now think that the normal relation of supply and demand has +been partially restored. The interests of labor are directly concerned +to avoid premature and forced development in so important an industry. +Those who lend upon real estate security, and all who deposit in +savings banks which make such loans, are not less concerned that our +growth should represent the response to actual demand, and not +inconsiderate and headlong enterprise. +</p> + +<p> +Further analysis of the permits issued during the twelve months ending +November 30, 1888, is of interest. +</p> + +<p> +Of the 10,457 families for whose accommodation residence permits were +issued, nineteen were to live in factories, stables, shops, or +business offices, three thousand six hundred and seventy-two (3,672), +were to live in 1,011 flats, to be erected at the estimated cost of +$4,903,513. The average investment of capital to furnish a home for +each of these families would seem to be $1,338, <i>plus</i> the cost +of the land. 2,456 families were to live in 713 buildings described as +flats and stores, to be erected at a cost of $4,303,784, calling for +an average investment for each family of $1,752 less the cost of the +store, <i>plus</i> the cost of land. It may be safely stated that the +distinction between these two variety of residences is in general not +great. If, therefore, we call the average cost of the flat the same in +each case, $1,338, <i>plus</i> the cost of the land, we shall not be +far wrong. Neither do we err much if the value of the land is +estimated to be one-third that of the building. It would thus appear +that 6,128 families were to be given homes representing on the average +an investment of $1,784. The owner of such property would probably +demand $175 per year average rental, and since rent may be reckoned as +forming one-fourth of the cost of living with these families, it would +follow that the 6,128 families now under consideration should possess +an average income of $650 or $700. This body of inhabitants forms a +full six-tenths of the growth of the City as the builders anticipated +it. +</p> + +<p> +The next most important element in that growth consists of (3,055) +three thousand and fifty-five families who are to occupy 505 +tenements, to be constructed at a cost of $2,629,026, the average +investment to provide a home for each family in this case being $806, +<i>plus</i> the cost of the land. Allow one-third as before to this +latter item, and the cost of each home becomes $1,075. Assume $120 to +be the average rent asked for such dwelling places, and it would +appear that these 3,055 families do not command an average income in +excess of $450. These families form three-tenths of the City's growth +for a year as foreseen by its builders. Thus, nine-tenths of the +expected increase has been classified with a reasonable approximation +to accuracy. The averages thus far submitted are not likely to be +seriously misleading, since they represent varieties of construction +and modes of life in which a uniform type is closely followed. Among +those inhabitants composing the remaining tenth, incomes cover a wider +range, but a comprehensive view even of these is by no means +unprofitable. For 1,168 families the same number of private dwellings +were built, costing $4,660,388, the average cost of each dwelling +being $4,000. In order that these averages might not be misleading, +the Commissioner of Buildings has, at my request, examined every +permit issued by him during the year, and has arranged them upon +certain suggestive bases of classification. This last group of 1,168 +families includes no permits for private dwellings whose construction +cost over $10,000. The average cost of dwellings costing less than +$10,000 each, occupied by one family is, therefore, $4,000. While this +figure represents the average cost of dwellings of this class, it +would appear that the actual cost of the greater number of these +dwellings was considerably less than the average. Otherwise the +average would not have been drawn to a point so far below the maximum +cost of $10,000. These 1,168 families may be safely assumed to stand +upon lots worth one-third of their cost. Thus, these 1,168 dwellings +are to dwell in homes representing an average investment of $5,333. +Upon the basis of computation before employed the income of these +families should average not far from $2,000 per year. In fact, for +reasons just suggested, these incomes range from a minimum of $1,000 +or less to a maximum rarely exceeding $5,000 or $6,000. And a greater +number of these incomes undoubtedly falls below the average point of +$2,000. Perhaps the greater number would be found to be not far from +$1,500. +</p> + +<p> +There remain 87 families, for whom 87 private dwellings, each costing +$10,000 or more, as estimated, were to be constructed. The aggregate +value of these dwellings is $1,135,500. The average value is $13,000. +Since the average rises so slightly above the minimum, it is clear +that but few dwellings costing much more than $10,000 were to be +constructed. The detailed report of the Commissioner mentions but +three residences of high cost to be built respectively for $35,000, +$40,000 and $50,000. These 87 families represent an average investment +for both the land and the house of $17,333. An attempt to average the +income of this class would be attended with less success than in any +of the prior instances. The minimum cost of living for a family +dwelling in one of these residences would not be far from $6,000. +Doubtless but a few of them spend as small a sum as this in a year. +</p> + +<p> +The surmise that in some of its features building has been overdone is +apparently verified by a study of the remaining permits. The 63 +factories costing $579,580, and the 158 shops costing $121,445 call +for so small a part of such a population as would be contained in the +flats and tenements to be constructed, that we must believe that some +of these latter will not be occupied at once. This conclusion accords +with observation. At the same time the general magnitude of this sort +of construction indicates the operation of those causes already spoken +of which embarrass the growth of New York and promote the growth of +Brooklyn. Manifestly the tenants of these numerous flats and the 1,168 +families who are to dwell in the more modest residences belonging in +part at least to the class which will not live in lower New York and +which cannot endure the journey to the region above One Hundred and +Tenth street. +</p> + +<p> +For the twelve months ending November 30th, 1887, permits were issued +for 4,246 buildings, to cost $19,983,414. Among these are found +dwellings for 9,585 families. Of these families, 2,856 are to dwell in +922 flats costing $3,978,592, the average investment for each family +being $1,390 as against $1,338 in 1888. Two thousand eight hundred and +sixty-eight families are to dwell in buildings described as stores and +flats, numbering 714, and costing $4,838,938, the average investment +for each family being $1,691 as against $1,752 in 1888. Two thousand +three hundred and ninety-one families are to dwell in 377 tenements +costing $1,879,001, the average investment for a family being $785 as +against $806 in 1884. There remain 1,372 families who are to dwell in +the same number of dwellings, each costing less than $10,000, and the +aggregate cost being $5,320,607, the average cost per family being +$3,877, as against $4,000 in 1888. Finally, there are 97 families +provided for by the same number of residences, each costing over +$10,000, and costing in the aggregate $1,197,400, or on the average +$12,344 as against $13,000 in 1888. +</p> + +<p> +It will be noted that a general survey of these twelve months is +decidedly like that for the twelve months ending upon November 30th, +1888. +</p> + +<p> +Since December 1, 1886, therefore, permits have been issued for the +accommodation of 20,042 families The conclusion hinted at early in +this message that present rate of growth of this city is in excess of +25,000 per year is more than supported by these figures. +</p> + +<p> +The conclusions thus arrived at as to the present and future of +Brooklyn are reinforced by observation of the life of the people as it +ebbs and flows about us. Closer union with New York has—to put it +paradoxically—removed us further from New York. The increased +population, whose growth is undoubtedly stimulated by improved +transit, consumes such a volume of home supplies that our local +business has vastly augmented and varied. The tendency to visit New +York for every sort of purpose declines. Closer alliance with New York +means a more discriminating alliance and less general indiscriminate +dependence on that city. This must ever be the rule of growth in great +communities. It is the rule of national growth. Of the products of the +West some must be shipped in undiminished bulk, but even these are so +handled that a small room in New York suffices to accommodate enough +buyers and sellers to dispose in one day of a year's crop. Other forms +of product reach the East for consumption or export in a concentrated +form. By the natural law of growth the process of concentration is +constantly moving Westward in its place of performance to intercept +the raw material at a point as near as possible to that of its +production. Similar laws apply to New York and Brooklyn with unusual +intensity. Obviously New York must be the clearing house and the site +of the finer and more costly grades of industry. That it cannot be the +abode of large industrial activity demanding bulk or space is not less +clear. Manufacturers who are to occupy much of the earth's surface, or +whose products are bulky, must establish themselves elsewhere. Some of +them must and will come to Brooklyn, and the population growing up +about them will hereafter depend less and less upon New York for any +except the finer bonds of relation which unify the diverse purposes +and interests clustering around our majestic bay. +</p> + +<p> +It has seemed best to dwell upon this topic of the City's present +magnitude and general condition. Such a study of the people can hardly +fail to enlighten those who conduct their affairs, or to arouse and +stimulate a collective and aggressive public spirit, and a sentiment +of just local pride, such as become a great community. Few revelations +of the future are as clear as that the commanding, if not the +overwhelming problems of politics, are to spring hereafter from such +communities. The necessities of compact and highly-organized bodies of +people; the vast private enterprises, as well as public works, which +must minister to their daily wants; the stress of industrial +competition among them; the pressure of class upon class; the jarring +of interest upon interest; the demand for comprehensive, honest and +far-sighted administration of their public affairs; the absolute need +to maintain order upon its established foundations; the fierce +contentions and uneasy vitality which accompany hasty or irregular +municipal growth; these and other features of city life, suggests much +food for thought for the present and approaching generation of +Americans. Since cities are to be so great a factor as well as so +great a product in our material expansion, it follows that the +government of cities is the one quarter of the political field in +which American institutions must not fail; for if popular +self-government fails there it fails at the heart, at the centre and +source of vital and nervous power. In cities, therefore, are to be met +those trials whose issue will determine in what characters the later +pages of American history are to be inscribed. To designate great +cities as an evil, or as a peril, is to note but half their +significance. If men, when massed together, are accessible to evil +suggestions they are likewise accessible to that which is good. At all +events, the problem is not obscure or hard to find. One might go +farther and say that in the question of the future of our cities is +involved more even than the destiny of popular self-government. It +involves the success or the failure of all the agencies of progress +and of enlightenment. The moral and spiritual interests of the people +cannot be separated from those which fall within the scope of +governmental influence. Moreover, these great populations will not +remain at rest either materially or otherwise. Their condition will be +one of advancement or of progressive demoralization and decay. +</p> + +<p> +In its practical suggestions such information as is given by these +statistics is of much value. In earlier days the forecasts of coming +greatness were not and could not be accompanied by material provision +for the future. They formed no basis for definite concrete policy. +To-day the situation is changed. The vision of an approaching +multitude casts before it the shadow of responsibility. Their +well-being must be made secure. Nor is this obligation remote or of +little present moment. Already our numbers and rank place us among the +great, advanced and interesting communities of the civilized world. On +the continent of Europe there can be found but six cities more +populous than our own. The British Isles contain but one. Our place is +surpassed only by that of the capitals of the great powers. What is +done now, therefore, by way of provision for the Brooklyn of to-day as +well as for the Brooklyn of the future, should be done in a manner +befitting the character and needs of a numerous, permanent and +expanding population. Heretofore the public works not less than the +private enterprises of our countrymen have often been experimental and +insufficient. Even those who dimly foresaw the magnitude of the future +dared not prepare for all that seemed to them probable. Hence the +varieties of effort to supply the people have usually proved +inadequate. Demand has speedily overtaken the new methods of supply. +There is more than one reason why this has been true. Not infrequently +the means with which to make adequate provision did not exist. Often +the drift of population or the general desire for some new product or +convenience has set all previous calculations at defiance. In public +matters the necessity of submitting large propositions to minds not +familiar with them has operated to the public disadvantage. Such a +project as the Erie Canal or the Brooklyn Bridge is denounced for +years as wild and extravagant. When completed, its capacity may almost +at once be taxed to the utmost. It is now time to recognize that +cities like ours are to be the homes of multitudes for successive +generations—that the battle of civilization, of progress and of all +that gilds the future with the light of hope must be fought out on +this field. Here must be established the broad and sure foundations of +systematic provision for those vital daily needs upon whose +gratification depend comfort, health, contentment and peace of mind. +</p> + +<p> +Neither is there now the excuse that resources are not at hand. Our +credit is second to that of no existing community; the labor of those +dwelling among us is not to be surpassed in intelligent and +conscientious effectiveness; our frugality has produced at least one +good result, for the cost of government to the citizen is less than in +almost any other city. Comprehensive effort and manly determination +alone are needed to begin the task of supplying Brooklyn with what is +due to the city and its visible future. This task does not immediately +involve any gigantic project. Extraordinary outlay, such as attended +the establishment of the Park and the construction of the Bridge, need +not at once be contemplated. Doubtless other bridges will some day be +built—and that day may be nearer than some imagine—but I speak now +only of such general forms of improvement as are necessary to the +prosperity of the whole city. In a previous message I have outlined +one such proposition to your honorable body. In other communications I +shall complete the list. +</p> + +<p class="ctr"> +Respectfully, +</p> + +<p class="sig"> +ALFRED C. CHAPIN, +<br> +Mayor. +</p> + + + + + + + +<pre> + + + + + +End of Project Gutenberg's The Future of Brooklyn, by Alfred C. 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Thus, we do not necessarily +keep eBooks in compliance with any particular paper edition. + + +Most people start at our Web site which has the main PG search facility: + + http://www.gutenberg.org + +This Web site includes information about Project Gutenberg-tm, +including how to make donations to the Project Gutenberg Literary +Archive Foundation, how to help produce our new eBooks, and how to +subscribe to our email newsletter to hear about new eBooks. + + +</pre> + +</body> +</html> + diff --git a/36994-h/images/brace.jpg b/36994-h/images/brace.jpg Binary files differnew file mode 100644 index 0000000..6b9f2ea --- /dev/null +++ b/36994-h/images/brace.jpg diff --git a/36994.txt b/36994.txt new file mode 100644 index 0000000..a8aa848 --- /dev/null +++ b/36994.txt @@ -0,0 +1,1097 @@ +The Project Gutenberg EBook of The Future of Brooklyn, by Alfred C. Chapin + +This eBook is for the use of anyone anywhere at no cost and with +almost no restrictions whatsoever. You may copy it, give it away or +re-use it under the terms of the Project Gutenberg License included +with this eBook or online at www.gutenberg.org + + +Title: The Future of Brooklyn + +Author: Alfred C. Chapin + +Release Date: August 7, 2011 [EBook #36994] + +Language: English + +Character set encoding: ASCII + +*** START OF THIS PROJECT GUTENBERG EBOOK THE FUTURE OF BROOKLYN *** + + + + +Produced by The Online Distributed Proofreading Team at +http://www.pgdp.net (This file was produced from images +generously made available by The Internet Archive) + + + + + + +THE FUTURE OF BROOKLYN. + +THE CITY'S PROMISED GROWTH AND INCREASE, +WITH COMMENTS ON THE BUILDING STATISTICS +FOR THE YEAR 1888. + +MESSAGE OF THE HON. ALFRED C. CHAPIN, MAYOR. + +DECEMBER 13, 1888. + + + + +MAYOR'S OFFICE, } +CITY HALL, BROOKLYN, } +December 13, 1888 } + + +_To the Honorable, the Common Council_: + +GENTLEMEN: + +In this message I shall attempt a general statement of the condition +of the city, and of its building operations. For the purpose of +broadly considering the city's present condition and standing among +similar communities, the returns of the recent Presidential election +furnish valuable data. Presidential elections call out a full vote, +and thus afford an indication of the relative growth of the different +cities of the country. The following table is believed to correctly +state the total number of votes cast in the four leading cities for +President at the recent election: + +Total vote cast in 1888. + + New York 270,194 + Philadelphia 205,747 + Brooklyn 148,868 + Chicago 123,475 + +In 1880 the vote of these several cities in the Presidential election +bore the following proportion to the population as shown by the census +of the same year: + +Number of population to each voter in 1880: + + New York 5.87. + Philadelphia 4.92. + Brooklyn 5.29. + Chicago 6.06. + +The following table contains the population of each city in 1880, and +the apparent population at present, basing the estimate upon the vote +of this year, and assuming the ratio of population to the numbers of +voters to remain the same as in 1880: + + Population Apparent population + in 1880. in 1888. + + New York, 1,206,299. 1,585,529. + Philadelphia, 847,170. 1,014,332. + Brooklyn, 566,663. 782,221. + Chicago, 503,185. 748,258. + +The method of reaching this conclusion cannot be called unduly +favorable to our city. The difference in the ratio existing between +the population and the voters in 1880 in Chicago and in Brooklyn would +seem to indicate either that Chicago possessed an unusually large +unnaturalized population, or else that it did not poll its full vote. +If the unnaturalized population of our own city is larger than it was +in 1880, the above estimate may be too small. If the increase of +population since 1880 has been one that brought with it a larger +proportion of women and children than the increase before 1880, the +above estimate is too small. Whether either of these possible +modifications should be given serious consideration is a matter of +conjecture upon which some light may be thrown by what will be set +forth in this communication. + +The twenty-six wards now comprising the city of Brooklyn, contained in +1880 a population of 580,313; if, therefore, their present population +as above estimated is 782,221, there has been an increase in eight +years of 201,903, or an average annual gain for each of those years of +25,237. But the population in 1870 was 396,099, and in 1875, as +enumerated by the State Census, it was 484,616, showing a gain for the +five years of 87,518, or an average annually of 17,500. Between 1875 +and 1880 it rose to 566,663, the total gain for the five years being +82,047, the average annual gain being 16,400. It should, therefore, +first be noticed that the rate of increase of the last decade was more +rapid during its first half than during its closing half. The present +decade began in a period of more moderate growth than that of some +years previous. We may, I think, safely assume that the falling off in +the gain between 1875 and 1880 was largely due to the opening of the +system of elevated roads in New York City in 1878. Making all +necessary allowance for the increase due to the Twenty-sixth Ward, +which was not a part of the city in 1880, it is still impossible to +believe that the average annual gain of 16,400 which prevailed from +1875 to 1880 could have been abruptly changed to the average annual +gain of 25,237 which has prevailed from 1880 to the present time. We +must, then, assume that during the years since 1880 the rate of growth +of the city has advanced quite materially; and that the average +increase of the first three or four years of the present decade may +not have been much in excess of the average increase of the five years +from 1875 to 1880. A sufficient cause for the change of the rate of +growth is furnished in the opening of the Bridge in 1883. + +A further promoting cause is found in the opening of the Brooklyn +Elevated Railway in 1885. We must, therefore, assume the average +annual gain for the past eight years (of 25,237) to be greater than +the average gain of the three or four years following 1880. If so, it +is obvious that the gains for the present year and for the years +immediately preceding must have been greater than 25,000. That the two +causes suggested contributed to change the rate of growth is not +likely to be questioned by any one. But they are only the +accompaniments of a broader and more persistent cause, which is the +fundamental reason of the existence of the bridge and of our present +system of rapid transit. This larger cause is a general change in the +relation between New York and Brooklyn, gradually manifesting itself +as a necessary result of the development of the whole metropolitan +community surrounding the port of New York. The first two causes, +therefore, though permanent, were auxiliary and specific. The last is +a general, continuous condition, whose force seems unlikely to +decline, but more likely to augment from year to year. The first two +causes, also, may be said to have a fixed or, at all events, an +ascertainable maximum influence, based upon their respective capacity +to transport passengers. They are merely methods of transit. Their +capacity may in time be exhausted. In such case they may be +supplemented; new bridges can be built, and doubtless will be; newer +elevated railroads have been built and opened for business since the +construction of the one already mentioned. More elevated railroads are +to be built. In addition to the Brooklyn Elevated Railroad Company, +already named, now operating six and three-fourths miles of railroad, +the Kings County Elevated Railroad Company is operating five and +one-half miles of railroad, and the Union Elevated Railroad Company is +operating four and three-fifths miles, forming together a system of +nearly seventeen miles, which promises to increase its capacity as +well as its mileage. Construction is still progressing upon these +lines, and it is reported that at the close of the year 1889, or +earlier, there will be twenty-five miles of elevated railroad in +operation in the city. + +These features of the city's condition call attention to the fact that +we have reached a period of development, at which it is our duty to +provide clearly and understandingly for the needs of a far greater +population than that now included within our limits. + +In earlier days Americans did much empty boasting and made many +glorious predictions. At the same time, so far as material +preparations are concerned, they could do little for those coming +after them. The art of living had not then been studied as it since +has been. Sanitary science can hardly be said to have been in its +infancy, for in this country it seemed to have no existence whatever. +In the establishing of enduring and fundamental principles of +government, and in the field of law much was done for us and for our +posterity by the men of previous generations, but it was necessary +that there should be a gradual education of the business sense of the +country before men could appreciate the nature and import of the +problems now presented in the growth of cities. It was necessary that +a more leisurely aspect should come over life; that comfort and health +should be more highly prized. The more purely intellectual side of our +ancestors' work was well done; but the needs of the by no means +distant future, the inheritances which our successors should receive +from us, are of a different description. Pavements, sewers, sufficient +water supply, parks, schools, public buildings, an enlarged +application of the results attained in sanitary science, and the solid +work of masonry are the inheritances we should transmit, rather than +far reaching adjudications, such as that of the Dartmouth College +case, or comprehensive enactments, such as the ordinance establishing +the Northwest Territory. Naturally, the greatest and most pressing +need will arise here at the centre of the greatest population. How +great that need may be, or how great a population may congregate +within our area or upon the borders of the bay of New York, we cannot +indeed actually estimate, but to some extent we can forecast it. Such +forecasts are not useless. In his message of December, 1861, President +Lincoln said: "There are already among us those who, if the Union be +preserved, will live to see it contain two hundred and fifty +millions." Such a vision of the future, at a time of extreme trial, +seemed to him neither vain nor fanciful. Its utterance was evidence +that he possessed the sort of political imagination which a statesman +should possess if he is to discern the drift of public thought, or to +picture the future material condition of his country. When compared +with other estimates, his outlook was not extravagant, though it may +not be realized. Its concern for us is direct and unavoidable. For the +course of history, in our own land and abroad, makes it clear that the +population about the port of New York is to hold a place of high +importance in the nation, both numerical and otherwise. + +The State of New York passed to the first place in population in the +nation in 1820. Since that day the population of the Union, of the +State of New York, and the combined population of the cities of New +York and Brooklyn, at each decade from 1820 to 1880, and the +percentage of increase in each decade, have been as follows: + + Population Population Population + of New Increase of the Increase of the Increase + York and per State of per United per + Years. Brooklyn. cent. New York. cent. States. cent. + + 1820 130,881 1,372,111 9,633,822 + + 1830 215,049 64.3 1,918,608 39.8 12,866,020 32.51 + + 1840 348,943 62.2 2,428,926 26.5 17,069,453 33.52 + + 1850 612,385 75.5 3,097,394 27.5 23,191,876 33.83 + + 1860 1,072,312 75.1 3,880,735 25.2 31,443,321 35.11 + + 1870 1,338,391 24.8 4,382,759 12.9 38,558,371 22.65 + + 1880 1,772,962 32.4 5,082,871 15.9 50,155.783 30.08 + +Thus the combined population of New York and Brooklyn has at all times +since 1830 grown at a rate much more rapid than that of the growth of +the State of New York; the rate of growth of the two cities has at all +times exceeded the rate of growth of the population of the whole +Union, although the rate of growth of the population of the State of +New York has not kept pace with that of the population of the United +States since 1830. But for the growth of the two cities, the State +would, before this time, have ceased to hold the first place. The +degree to which the population of the two cities has gained upon that +of the State in the whole period, is quite notable. Their proportion +of the population of the State in 1820 was less than one-tenth; while +in 1880 more than one-third of the population of the State lived in +Brooklyn and New York. On the other hand, in 1820, the State of New +York included more than one-eighth of the population of the whole +Union; while in 1880 it embraced a little less than one-tenth of that +population. At present, adopting the estimates already given, based +upon the Presidential vote for this year, New York and Brooklyn +include nearly, if not quite, two-fifths of the population of the +whole State. + +Without adopting Lincoln's prediction, we need only look forward to a +time when the country may contain one hundred and fifty million +people. Even then, the density of its population will be much less +than that of older countries or of some States of the Union. If the +population of the State of New York failed to hold its present +relation, and fell off until it numbered but eight per cent. or about +one-twelfth of the population of the Union, it would still contain +more than twelve millions of people, of which a population surpassing +one-half might be found in or near these two cities. As the two cities +grow, apparently an increasing proportion of that growth must come to +Brooklyn. The mere question of area goes far to determine such a +result. Each mile of departure from the New York City Hall emphasizes +the inequality in the quantity of residence area lying respectively +upon Manhattan Island and within our limits. It is four miles from the +New York City Hall to Sixtieth street; and the capacity of the area +below that street for purposes of residence may be said to be well +nigh exhausted. The encroachments of business below that division line +seem likely to diminish its capacity to furnish homes nearly as +rapidly as improvements in building methods may augment such capacity. +Of the twenty-four Assembly Districts in the City of New York, +nineteen--to wit, one to eighteen inclusive, and the twentieth--lie +wholly below Fifty-ninth street. In these nineteen districts the +increase of registration in 1888 over that of 1884 is 13,641. The +remaining five districts lie almost wholly above Fifty-ninth street; +and in them the increase is 32,110. Apparently more than seventy per +cent. of the growth of New York during the past four years has been +north of Fifty-ninth street. Not only must this comparatively fixed +condition of New York below Fifty-ninth street remain or become more +and more marked, but the line of division between the growing and the +fixed parts of the city must rapidly shift from Fifty-ninth street to +One Hundred and Tenth street. For of the area between Fifty-ninth +street and One Hundred and Tenth street a substantial part is devoted +to Central Park, and is unavailable for residences. Furthermore, the +presence of Central Park causes land east and west of it to be much +sought after, and to command high prices. That part of New York, +therefore, which lies between Fifty-ninth street and One Hundred and +Tenth street is to be largely taken by people whose means are +abundant, and of the space not already occupied, but a small part will +be left for the sort of population from which Brooklyn draws its chief +and characteristic growth. + +How far existing conditions may be disturbed by new means of transit +or by new works of life in New York City, no one can now tell. At +present, the broad fact is, that the whole area of Brooklyn (excepting +only the more remote parts of the Twenty-sixth Ward, the former town +of New Lots) is nearer in distance to the New York City Hall than that +part of New York City lying above One Hundred and Tenth street. + +Furthermore, the residence area lying between Fifty-ninth and One +Hundred and Tenth streets in New York is not one-seventh of that lying +between lines of like distance in Kings County. + +To attempt a close estimate of the future population of New York and +Brooklyn might be neither wise nor profitable. Some conception of the +general course or character of that development is the most that is +practicable. All nineteenth century progress discloses a tendency to +concentration of population. In our own country the inhabitants of +cities formed one-thirtieth of the population in 1790; one-eighth in +1850; and nine-fortieths or half way between one-fifth and one-fourth +in 1880. In this State a full one-half of the population dwelt in +cities in 1880. The proportion now is not less than three-fifths, and +is rapidly approaching, if it has not already reached, five-eighths. + +The population of the Union since 1820 has increased at a rate varying +by decades from over 35 per cent. to 22.65 per cent. The lowest rate +was that of the war decade. The rate per decade since 1870 has been +more than 30 per cent. The population of the cities of New York and +Brooklyn has at all times increased more rapidly than that of the +nation. This was true even during the war decade, although the marked +falling off of their rate of growth in that decade disclosed a decided +sensitiveness to whatever influences accelerated or retarded national +growth. New York and Brooklyn, indeed, have at all times shown by +their rate and character of progress and growth that they are +reflections of the development of the nation rather than of that of +any State or locality. We may, therefore, safely say that the growth +of the united population of New York and Brooklyn hereafter, as in the +past, will depend chiefly upon the general progress of the whole +nation. How rapid this progress will continue, how great proportions +it may finally attain can only be vaguely conjectured. Lincoln's +forecast of two hundred and fifty millions of souls during the life +time of people who were in existence in 1861, would seem to have been +over-sanguine, although it was not without parallel or precedent. The +decade between 1850 and 1860, at the close of which he was speaking, +had witnessed a most rapid national growth, that is, a rate of more +than thirty-five per cent. for the whole Union. Percentages decline as +aggregates increase. The rate of thirty per cent. which has prevailed +since 1870, would not produce two hundred and fifty millions +(250,000,000) of people until after 1940. It is too much to assume +that such a rate of national growth will continue. Its continuance for +so long a period would involve an increase of over forty millions +(40,000,000) between 1920 and 1930, and over fifty-five millions +(55,000,000) between 1930 and 1940. It seems more reasonable to expect +a gradual decline in the rate of increase, and that the relation +between this country and Europe will more closely approach an +equilibrium, accompanied or followed by a diminution of the force of +immigration as a factor in our national growth. Immigration in the +past has fluctuated widely. The total number of immigrants landing in +this country for the whole decade closing in 1880, was less than that +for the first five years of the present decade. To what degree the +population of the future will dwell in cities can perhaps best be +foretold by present indications in our own land, or by the conditions +prevailing in more thickly settled nations. Present indications here, +as has been pointed out, suggest a city growth more rapid than that of +the remainder of the population. Among the older nations, the +population of the British Isles may be said to resemble our own most +closely. The population of Great Britain and Ireland in 1881 was +thirty-five millions (35,000,000). More than one-tenth of this +population was contained in London alone. Such an urban population +manifestly sustains itself largely if not chiefly upon the commercial +and maritime importance of the nation containing it, and only to a +minor degree upon the community surrounding it. This condition of +existence may never be as emphatically true of the population about +the port of New York as it is of the population of London, yet it has +always been believed that the final commercial position of our nation +must be one of commanding importance. That belief compels the +inference that the great port of the nation and of the continent must +continue to attract an enormous population. That the present rate of +growth, which adds 30 per cent. to the population of New York, and +more than 40 per cent. to that of Brooklyn, in every ten years, will +endure, need not be expected. The results of a computation upon such a +basis seem incredible, since they call for a population of three +million five hundred thousand (3,500,000) in New York in 1920, and of +two million two hundred thousand (2,200,000) in Brooklyn at the same +time. But we may well believe that in the nation there will be a +gradual approach to the density of population now maintained in older +countries; that this port will hold its place as a general point of +concentration and distribution for the nation, the continent, perhaps +for the world; and that the excess of residence area in and about our +own city over the corresponding area of New York must continue to tell +in our favor, probably with increasing force. + +Looking back no further than 1850, and comparing the two cities with +each other, the following table shows their numbers and rate of growth +in the successive decades: + + Population Population + of Increase of Increase + Years. New York. per cent. Brooklyn. per cent. + + 1850 515,547 96,838 + 1860 05,651 56.2 266,661 175.3 + 1870 942,292 16.9 396,099 48.5 + 1880 1,206,299 28.0 566,663 43.0 + +As the present Twenty-sixth Ward of Brooklyn was not a part of the +city in 1880, a comparison of the population of Brooklyn, as the city +is now constituted, with the population of the City of New York would +be as follows: + +The figures for 1888 for both cities are estimated on the basis +already stated. + + Increase Increase + Year. New York. per cent. Brooklyn. per cent. + + 1880 1,206,299 580,318 + 1888 1,585,529 782,221 + --------- ------- + 379,230 23.9 201,903 34.7 + 3 pr. cent. 4.3 pr. cent. + per year. per year. + +The records of the Building Department aid in testing the estimates +already submitted, and more strikingly in disclosing the character of +the population now coming to us. During the twelve months ending on +November 30 of this year, 4,226 permits were granted for buildings of +all varieties, estimated by their projectors to cost $22,377,825. The +estimated value of this proposed construction has not been exceeded +during any similar period in the City's history. The buildings of a +residence description were to furnish accommodation for 10,457 +families. Not every building for which a permit is issued is +afterwards completed, but the magnitude of the volume of the business +of this department--even after making all reasonable deductions for +the plans not carried out--at least justifies all that has been said +thus far concerning the City's present proportions and rate of +progress. The United States census of 1880 declared the City's +population of 566,663 to be contained in 115,076 families; thus fixing +the average membership of each family at 4.92. It is hardly credible +therefore that the permits issued for residence purposes during the +past year represent the City's actual growth during any given period +of twelve months. If families now average as then, these permits would +furnish homes for more than 51,000 souls--a number, to my mind, in +excess of the City's yearly growth. We must, therefore, assume that +there is some discrepancy between the methods of designation employed +in 1880 by the United States officials and those of the building +department, or that the average number of persons in each family is +now less than in 1880, or that these permits represent more than the +actual needs of the period during which they were granted. Probably +the last supposition is best founded. Like New York, the City may have +been overbuilt during the past two or three years, and this record, no +doubt, exhibits some permits not acted upon and some construction due +to the impetus of the speculative ardor of 1885, 1886, and 1887. This +view is confirmed by the statement of the number and cost of the +buildings actually completed during the calendar years 1886 and 1887, +and the first eleven months of the present year. + + Year. No. of Buildings. Estimated Cost. + 1886. 3,990. $20,318,485. + 1887. 3,875. 18,008,325. + 1888 to Dec. 1. 3,155. 15,711,070. + +While these figures, together with the record of the twelve months +ending upon November 30, 1888, as already given, can not, from their +nature, lead to a precise mathematical conclusion, they indicate most +clearly a degree of activity in construction in which a slight decline +in rapidity might be a cause for congratulation rather than for +regret. The substantial prosperity of the City was at one time +threatened by the over-speculative temper of builders. Conservative +witnesses now think that the normal relation of supply and demand has +been partially restored. The interests of labor are directly concerned +to avoid premature and forced development in so important an industry. +Those who lend upon real estate security, and all who deposit in +savings banks which make such loans, are not less concerned that our +growth should represent the response to actual demand, and not +inconsiderate and headlong enterprise. + +Further analysis of the permits issued during the twelve months ending +November 30, 1888, is of interest. + +Of the 10,457 families for whose accommodation residence permits were +issued, nineteen were to live in factories, stables, shops, or +business offices, three thousand six hundred and seventy-two (3,672), +were to live in 1,011 flats, to be erected at the estimated cost of +$4,903,513. The average investment of capital to furnish a home for +each of these families would seem to be $1,338, _plus_ the cost of the +land. 2,456 families were to live in 713 buildings described as flats +and stores, to be erected at a cost of $4,303,784, calling for an +average investment for each family of $1,752 less the cost of the +store, _plus_ the cost of land. It may be safely stated that the +distinction between these two variety of residences is in general not +great. If, therefore, we call the average cost of the flat the same in +each case, $1,338, _plus_ the cost of the land, we shall not be far +wrong. Neither do we err much if the value of the land is estimated to +be one-third that of the building. It would thus appear that 6,128 +families were to be given homes representing on the average an +investment of $1,784. The owner of such property would probably demand +$175 per year average rental, and since rent may be reckoned as +forming one-fourth of the cost of living with these families, it would +follow that the 6,128 families now under consideration should possess +an average income of $650 or $700. This body of inhabitants forms a +full six-tenths of the growth of the City as the builders anticipated +it. + +The next most important element in that growth consists of (3,055) +three thousand and fifty-five families who are to occupy 505 +tenements, to be constructed at a cost of $2,629,026, the average +investment to provide a home for each family in this case being $806, +_plus_ the cost of the land. Allow one-third as before to this +latter item, and the cost of each home becomes $1,075. Assume $120 to +be the average rent asked for such dwelling places, and it would +appear that these 3,055 families do not command an average income in +excess of $450. These families form three-tenths of the City's growth +for a year as foreseen by its builders. Thus, nine-tenths of the +expected increase has been classified with a reasonable approximation +to accuracy. The averages thus far submitted are not likely to be +seriously misleading, since they represent varieties of construction +and modes of life in which a uniform type is closely followed. Among +those inhabitants composing the remaining tenth, incomes cover a wider +range, but a comprehensive view even of these is by no means +unprofitable. For 1,168 families the same number of private dwellings +were built, costing $4,660,388, the average cost of each dwelling +being $4,000. In order that these averages might not be misleading, +the Commissioner of Buildings has, at my request, examined every +permit issued by him during the year, and has arranged them upon +certain suggestive bases of classification. This last group of 1,168 +families includes no permits for private dwellings whose construction +cost over $10,000. The average cost of dwellings costing less than +$10,000 each, occupied by one family is, therefore, $4,000. While this +figure represents the average cost of dwellings of this class, it +would appear that the actual cost of the greater number of these +dwellings was considerably less than the average. Otherwise the +average would not have been drawn to a point so far below the maximum +cost of $10,000. These 1,168 families may be safely assumed to stand +upon lots worth one-third of their cost. Thus, these 1,168 dwellings +are to dwell in homes representing an average investment of $5,333. +Upon the basis of computation before employed the income of these +families should average not far from $2,000 per year. In fact, for +reasons just suggested, these incomes range from a minimum of $1,000 +or less to a maximum rarely exceeding $5,000 or $6,000. And a greater +number of these incomes undoubtedly falls below the average point of +$2,000. Perhaps the greater number would be found to be not far from +$1,500. + +There remain 87 families, for whom 87 private dwellings, each costing +$10,000 or more, as estimated, were to be constructed. The aggregate +value of these dwellings is $1,135,500. The average value is $13,000. +Since the average rises so slightly above the minimum, it is clear +that but few dwellings costing much more than $10,000 were to be +constructed. The detailed report of the Commissioner mentions but +three residences of high cost to be built respectively for $35,000, +$40,000 and $50,000. These 87 families represent an average investment +for both the land and the house of $17,333. An attempt to average the +income of this class would be attended with less success than in any +of the prior instances. The minimum cost of living for a family +dwelling in one of these residences would not be far from $6,000. +Doubtless but a few of them spend as small a sum as this in a year. + +The surmise that in some of its features building has been overdone is +apparently verified by a study of the remaining permits. The 63 +factories costing $579,580, and the 158 shops costing $121,445 call +for so small a part of such a population as would be contained in the +flats and tenements to be constructed, that we must believe that some +of these latter will not be occupied at once. This conclusion accords +with observation. At the same time the general magnitude of this sort +of construction indicates the operation of those causes already spoken +of which embarrass the growth of New York and promote the growth of +Brooklyn. Manifestly the tenants of these numerous flats and the 1,168 +families who are to dwell in the more modest residences belonging in +part at least to the class which will not live in lower New York and +which cannot endure the journey to the region above One Hundred and +Tenth street. + +For the twelve months ending November 30th, 1887, permits were issued +for 4,246 buildings, to cost $19,983,414. Among these are found +dwellings for 9,585 families. Of these families, 2,856 are to dwell in +922 flats costing $3,978,592, the average investment for each family +being $1,390 as against $1,338 in 1888. Two thousand eight hundred and +sixty-eight families are to dwell in buildings described as stores and +flats, numbering 714, and costing $4,838,938, the average investment +for each family being $1,691 as against $1,752 in 1888. Two thousand +three hundred and ninety-one families are to dwell in 377 tenements +costing $1,879,001, the average investment for a family being $785 as +against $806 in 1884. There remain 1,372 families who are to dwell in +the same number of dwellings, each costing less than $10,000, and the +aggregate cost being $5,320,607, the average cost per family being +$3,877, as against $4,000 in 1888. Finally, there are 97 families +provided for by the same number of residences, each costing over +$10,000, and costing in the aggregate $1,197,400, or on the average +$12,344 as against $13,000 in 1888. + +It will be noted that a general survey of these twelve months is +decidedly like that for the twelve months ending upon November 30th, +1888. + +Since December 1, 1886, therefore, permits have been issued for the +accommodation of 20,042 families The conclusion hinted at early in +this message that present rate of growth of this city is in excess of +25,000 per year is more than supported by these figures. + +The conclusions thus arrived at as to the present and future of +Brooklyn are reinforced by observation of the life of the people as it +ebbs and flows about us. Closer union with New York has--to put it +paradoxically--removed us further from New York. The increased +population, whose growth is undoubtedly stimulated by improved +transit, consumes such a volume of home supplies that our local +business has vastly augmented and varied. The tendency to visit New +York for every sort of purpose declines. Closer alliance with New York +means a more discriminating alliance and less general indiscriminate +dependence on that city. This must ever be the rule of growth in great +communities. It is the rule of national growth. Of the products of the +West some must be shipped in undiminished bulk, but even these are so +handled that a small room in New York suffices to accommodate enough +buyers and sellers to dispose in one day of a year's crop. Other forms +of product reach the East for consumption or export in a concentrated +form. By the natural law of growth the process of concentration is +constantly moving Westward in its place of performance to intercept +the raw material at a point as near as possible to that of its +production. Similar laws apply to New York and Brooklyn with unusual +intensity. Obviously New York must be the clearing house and the site +of the finer and more costly grades of industry. That it cannot be the +abode of large industrial activity demanding bulk or space is not less +clear. Manufacturers who are to occupy much of the earth's surface, or +whose products are bulky, must establish themselves elsewhere. Some of +them must and will come to Brooklyn, and the population growing up +about them will hereafter depend less and less upon New York for any +except the finer bonds of relation which unify the diverse purposes +and interests clustering around our majestic bay. + +It has seemed best to dwell upon this topic of the City's present +magnitude and general condition. Such a study of the people can hardly +fail to enlighten those who conduct their affairs, or to arouse and +stimulate a collective and aggressive public spirit, and a sentiment +of just local pride, such as become a great community. Few revelations +of the future are as clear as that the commanding, if not the +overwhelming problems of politics, are to spring hereafter from such +communities. The necessities of compact and highly-organized bodies of +people; the vast private enterprises, as well as public works, which +must minister to their daily wants; the stress of industrial +competition among them; the pressure of class upon class; the jarring +of interest upon interest; the demand for comprehensive, honest and +far-sighted administration of their public affairs; the absolute need +to maintain order upon its established foundations; the fierce +contentions and uneasy vitality which accompany hasty or irregular +municipal growth; these and other features of city life, suggests much +food for thought for the present and approaching generation of +Americans. Since cities are to be so great a factor as well as so +great a product in our material expansion, it follows that the +government of cities is the one quarter of the political field in +which American institutions must not fail; for if popular +self-government fails there it fails at the heart, at the centre and +source of vital and nervous power. In cities, therefore, are to be met +those trials whose issue will determine in what characters the later +pages of American history are to be inscribed. To designate great +cities as an evil, or as a peril, is to note but half their +significance. If men, when massed together, are accessible to evil +suggestions they are likewise accessible to that which is good. At all +events, the problem is not obscure or hard to find. One might go +farther and say that in the question of the future of our cities is +involved more even than the destiny of popular self-government. It +involves the success or the failure of all the agencies of progress +and of enlightenment. The moral and spiritual interests of the people +cannot be separated from those which fall within the scope of +governmental influence. Moreover, these great populations will not +remain at rest either materially or otherwise. Their condition will be +one of advancement or of progressive demoralization and decay. + +In its practical suggestions such information as is given by these +statistics is of much value. In earlier days the forecasts of coming +greatness were not and could not be accompanied by material provision +for the future. They formed no basis for definite concrete policy. +To-day the situation is changed. The vision of an approaching +multitude casts before it the shadow of responsibility. Their +well-being must be made secure. Nor is this obligation remote or of +little present moment. Already our numbers and rank place us among the +great, advanced and interesting communities of the civilized world. On +the continent of Europe there can be found but six cities more +populous than our own. The British Isles contain but one. Our place is +surpassed only by that of the capitals of the great powers. What is +done now, therefore, by way of provision for the Brooklyn of to-day as +well as for the Brooklyn of the future, should be done in a manner +befitting the character and needs of a numerous, permanent and +expanding population. Heretofore the public works not less than the +private enterprises of our countrymen have often been experimental and +insufficient. Even those who dimly foresaw the magnitude of the future +dared not prepare for all that seemed to them probable. Hence the +varieties of effort to supply the people have usually proved +inadequate. Demand has speedily overtaken the new methods of supply. +There is more than one reason why this has been true. Not infrequently +the means with which to make adequate provision did not exist. Often +the drift of population or the general desire for some new product or +convenience has set all previous calculations at defiance. In public +matters the necessity of submitting large propositions to minds not +familiar with them has operated to the public disadvantage. Such a +project as the Erie Canal or the Brooklyn Bridge is denounced for +years as wild and extravagant. When completed, its capacity may almost +at once be taxed to the utmost. It is now time to recognize that +cities like ours are to be the homes of multitudes for successive +generations--that the battle of civilization, of progress and of all +that gilds the future with the light of hope must be fought out on +this field. Here must be established the broad and sure foundations of +systematic provision for those vital daily needs upon whose +gratification depend comfort, health, contentment and peace of mind. + +Neither is there now the excuse that resources are not at hand. Our +credit is second to that of no existing community; the labor of those +dwelling among us is not to be surpassed in intelligent and +conscientious effectiveness; our frugality has produced at least one +good result, for the cost of government to the citizen is less than in +almost any other city. Comprehensive effort and manly determination +alone are needed to begin the task of supplying Brooklyn with what is +due to the city and its visible future. This task does not immediately +involve any gigantic project. Extraordinary outlay, such as attended +the establishment of the Park and the construction of the Bridge, need +not at once be contemplated. Doubtless other bridges will some day be +built--and that day may be nearer than some imagine--but I speak now +only of such general forms of improvement as are necessary to the +prosperity of the whole city. In a previous message I have outlined +one such proposition to your honorable body. In other communications I +shall complete the list. + +Respectfully, + +ALFRED C. CHAPIN, + +Mayor. + + + + + + +End of Project Gutenberg's The Future of Brooklyn, by Alfred C. 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